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Week Two of the Russian Military Intervention in Syria
Options for Daesh, the Empire and Russia
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Russian SU-25 Attack Aircraft in Syria. Credit: Dmitriy Vinogradov/RIA Novaski
Russian SU-25 Attack Aircraft in Syria. Credit: Dmitriy Vinogradov/RIA Novaski

The Russian offensive in Syria is still very much in full swing and it is hard to make sense of what is really happening or how effective it has been. According to the Syrians, 40% of all the infrastructure of “Daesh” (meaning ISIS+al-Qaeda+all the hundreds of smaller groups fighting together against the Syrian government) has been destroyed. Russian sources are less enthusiastic and speak of a rather slow and hesitant Syrian offensive. So far, no major victory has been reported, but since all sides agree that the Russian air campaign is devastatingly effective and highly disruptive for Daesh, I think that there is a good probability that the Syrians will soon achieve a major success. If not, then the Iranians most definitely have the capability to truly tip the balance. So this might be a good time to look at what options Daesh will have.

How Daesh can adapt to the new circumstances

First, up until now, Daesh basically could move around at night with total impunity because the Syrian Air Force simply did not have the technology to detect and engage Daesh units at night. This has now changed since all the Russian aircraft (rotary and fixed wing) engaged in the current campaign are fully night capable. This is a major problem for Daesh which will now have to operate in an extremely dangerous environment 24 hours a day. The solution? Camouflage and dispersal. Daesh forces will have to learn to pay much more attention to avoiding detection, including radio detection, and they will have to avoid as much as possible any detectable concentrations. Not an easy task, for sure, but one which has been successfully learned by others in the past.

Second, Daesh forces will have to adapt to guerrilla-style ‘hit and run’ kinds of attacks. Until now, both sides were willing to engage in a bizarre kind of “trench warfare” in which each side would dig in and shell the other. Now that Russian bombers and close air support aircraft can be called in by the Syrian frontline commanders, this will become very dangerous for Daesh, probably forcing them to switch to faster, ambush warfare.

Third, most sources agree that currently Daesh controls roughly 80% of the land and 20% of the population. This is mostly due to the size of the Syrian armed forces which are stretched too thin to hold on to lightly populated areas. Daesh can use that to its advantage and try to move around any attacking Syrian forces and then ambush any units whose flanks and supply routes are not secured. The Syrians will have to be very careful not to fall into a “cauldron” trap like the Ukrainians in Novorussia.

Fourth, if things become really ugly for Daesh, they can start using the Turkish, Iraqi, Lebanese and Jordanian borders to hide from the Syrian/Iranian forces and enjoy the kind of safe heaven the Afghans had in Pakistan during the Soviet invasion.

Fifth, Daesh might do what the Ukrainians have done and organized a ‘Russian atrocity’ false flag, maybe the bombing of a pediatric clinic or hospital. They could even try a “Russian chemical attack in feeling refugees”. The corporate media will be more than happy to pick up and spread the story, no matter how ridiculous.

Finally, we can be absolutely certain that if the Syrian military is “too” successful, at least from the point of view of the Empire, then all the “friends of Syria” will join forces and demand a “peace conference” whose main purpose will be to save Daesh from complete destruction. This is the strategy used by the West with the Minsk-1 and Minsk-2 peace talks to save the Ukronazi junta from military defeat.

The world has seen numerous examples of Daesh-like forces (in military, not political, terms) adapting to a technologically superior enemy. Right now, the government’s superiority is primarily in the skies (thanks to the RuAF) and in intelligence (thanks to the OsNaz GRU units on the ground and the Russian “eyes and ears” in the sky and in space). With time, however, Russian could bring in new equipment (modern multiple rocket launchers, TOS-1 heavy flame-throwers, newer armor and artillery systems) which can make a real difference but at the end of the day, it will be ‘boots’, in the sense of infantry, which will decide the outcome. Will the Syrians and Kurds be enough to break Daesh or will the Iranians make a move? I honestly don’t know, but my bet is on Iran and Hezbollah moving in. As for a Russian intervention, Putin has now totally excluded such a possibility.

Options recommended by US politicians

US politicians have come up with two suggestions to help their “moderate terrorists”: supply advanced anti-air missiles to Daesh and impose a no-fly zone. I consider both of these suggestions highly impractical and very dangerous.

Delivering advanced anti-air missiles: which ones?! Daesh already has man-portable air defense systems (MANPADS) like the US Stingers and Russian Iglas. These are fine missiles, but they don’t have the reach to hit Russian aircraft which mostly fly at 5000m. True, they can hit a low flying target like a SU-25 on a close air support mission or a Mi-24 helicopter. Both of these aircraft have been heavily modified during and after the wars in Afghanistan and Chechnia and they are well-protected against such attacks. Still, sooner or later a Russian aircraft will get hit by such a missile and it is even possible that it will be downed. Daesh already has this capability and sending them more MANPADs just makes no sense but is very dangerous considering the kind of use any terrorist group can make of them against civilian airliners. Syria is not Afghanistan and we are not in the 1980s. MANPADs are simply not likely to make a major difference in this war, especially not against the kind of aircraft the Russians are currently deploying.

A no-fly zone: against whom, Russian aircraft? For one thing, this would be insanely provocative and the potential consequences of the US shooting down a Russian aircraft are truly terrifying. But this also begs the question of where such a zone would be created. Hillary and the other Neocon crazies are suggesting a no-fly zone over northern Syria. Okay, what if in response Russia declares another no fly zone over the rest of the country? Then what? Setting aside the insanity of actually threatening to attack Russia in military terms, in legal terms the Empire has no mandate to declare such a zone while Russia is standing on 100% legal grounds should she declare one. And if the Empire really goes crazy and declares that it will impose a no-fly zone over all of Syria you can be absolutely certain that S-300s will “suddenly” show up in sufficient numbers to make that an extremely dangerous exercise. By the way, at that point, the Russians can declare that all the S-300s in Syria are manned exclusively by Syrian personnel and are under Syrian command and thus they will be able to shoot down US aircraft in total impunity (as they already have in the past in Vietnam and Lebanon).

A no-fly zone makes sense against a defenseless country, but against one armed with semi-modern or modern air defenses this is a very dangerous proposition. I want to believe that there are enough mentally sane men in the JCS and Pentagon to reject any plan which can end up triggering a nuclear war between Russia and the USA.

The “sulking superpower”

Right now, the USA appears to be completely clueless. First, they accused the Russians of bombing the “wrong” terrorists. The Russians then replied “okay, give us a list of “bad terrorists” targets and we will destroy them”. The Americans refused. Then the Russians told them, “okay then, in this case at least give us a list of “good terrorist” targets not to bomb, and we will not hit them”. But the Americans refused again! At this point, the Russian began making openly fun of the Americans and Putin even declared that his American “partners” have “mush for brains”.

Furthermore, the USA have also refused a Russian invitation to send military specialists to the Russian General Staff and now they have apparently even refused to receive a Russian military delegation headed by Prime Minister Dmitry Medvedev himself! I don’t think I have ever heard of a “sulking superpower” but that is what we are apparently observing right now. How long Uncle Sam will continue to pout in his corner is anyone’s guess, but this is clearly not a sustainable policy. In fact, it is no policy at all.

I see no sign of the USA having the courage to look at reality and act accordingly. Not only is the Obama Administration at an absolutely unprecedented level of incompetence and intellectual mediocrity, the upcoming Presidential election is just making things worse: with bona fide psychopaths like Hillary, McCain or Fiorina making irresponsible statements on an almost daily basis, the White House must constantly dodge accusations of being “too soft on Russia”. And since no US politician can afford to tell the American public the basic truth that the US is not omnipotent, US politicians are stuck in a never ending race to prove how “tough” they are on “defense”. As for the Europeans, they probably have the brains to see all of the above, but what they lack is the spine to say anything to their American overlords.

Just like in the Ukraine, the West has made created a total mess and now is completely clueless as to what to do about it.

Russian options

Contrary to the impression given by the western media, the Russian force in Syria is still a very small one. The main reason for that is that the airfield near Latakia simply cannot accommodate a larger Russian force. As far as I know, there are no other locations in Syria where Russia could deploy more aircraft. True, the number of sorties flown by the Russians has baffled USAF experts who could never have achieved that kind of figures with US aircraft and pilots. Still, the Russian force is small and vulnerable. Of course, one option for the Russians would be to expand the airfield near Latakia, but that would take time and more resources and my understanding is that they want to consolidate their current airfield first. However, as a stop-gap measure, the Russians could use Russian-based bombers. If Iran allows Russia to conduct in-air refueling in Iranian airspace or if Iran allows Russia to use Iranian airbases, then many more SU-34/SU-35SM or SU-34/SU-30SM “air force packages” that could be engaged in Syria. In theory, Russia could even provide her Tu-22M3 to deliver gravity bombs, her Tu-95MS to deliver cruise missiles and her Tu-160 to deliver either one or both. I don’t think that there is any military necessity to use these strategic bombers right now, but it might be a good idea to do so for political reasons – just to flex some more ‘military muscle’ and show the Neocons that Russia is not to be messed with. Submarine launched cruise missiles would also work, especially if launched by a Russian sub in the Mediterranean which the USN did not detect. What is certain is that after the first volley of Russian cruise missiles the US withdrew its only aircraft carrier – the Theodore Roosevelt – from the Persian Gulf.

[Sidebar: some Russian observers have suggested that the first volley of Russian cruise missiles included 26 missiles because the 26th President of the United States was Theodore Roosevelt, the name of the only carrier which was in the Persian Gulf, and that this was a subtle message to the USA. Dunno. Maybe so. Maybe not. But if it is a coincidence, it is a neat one. What is certain is that for the first time in a very long while there are no US carriers in the Persian Gulf]

The main problem with any military escalation or increased Russian involvement is that Putin would have to sell it to the Russian public which, at least so far, has been totally supportive, but which is generally weary of “mission creep” and open ended military commitments (for example, most Russians oppose an overt Russian intervention in the Donbass). So far, the Kremlin has done a superb PR job explaining that Daesh is a direct threat to Russia and that it was better for Russia to “fight them over there than over here”. This logic, however, is predicated on the idea that a very limited Russian intervention can tip the balance. There is a very fine conceptual line between tipping the balance and fighting someone else’s war and that is something the Kremlin is acutely aware of. Hopefully, this line will never be crossed.

• Category: Foreign Policy • Tags: American Military, Russia, Syria 
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  1. Kiza says:

    To me personally, it looks like the force to tip the balance can only be the Iranian crack troops and the highly experienced Hizbollah warriors.

    As to what Daesh and other “moderate” terrorists will do – if they have even a minimum of brains, they will temporarily disappear over the border to the home bases in Israel, Jordan and in Turkey, where they have been trained originally.

    But one thing is absolutely certain – Assad and his SAA have just had their life extended by at least a few years. Also, the future of the GCC’s support for the “moderate” and “magnificent” terrorists does not look promising due to the very low price of oil and the World economy stuck in mud. This only leaves one option: the US to print another godzillion dollars to give to Israel and to finance more of the “moderate” terrorists to do regime change in Syria.

    Simple and predictable.

    But the Russians are stuck in Latakia, now even more then ever, they cannot leave and let Assad be overrun by the “moderate” terrorists financed by the West.

    • Replies: @Chaban
  2. Christian says:

    I think a major problem for “DAESH” that Saker didn’t point out is that it is that as much is it is portrayed as a ideologically driven force it is really mostly a mercenary army. The fact that it is a mercenary army is why there has been no possibility of a political compromise, the merc paymasters want Assad ousted, no negotiation for regional autonomy or legislative representation that would satisfy a legitimate resistance will placate the Gulf State paymasters. The Kurds and other legitimate resistance groups likely could be accommodated with such a compromise but not “DAESH” mercs.
    On the other hand mercs need constant infusions of cash, how much cash does a merc need now with constant airstrikes, how much money can the gulf states afford to spend, how do they resupply them now that Russian airstrikes prevent freedom of movement. The resupply problem has all ready been demonstrated, considering the US performed a rather risky and ridicules mission of air dropping 50 tonnes on arms. The fact they needed to do that is a sign of desperation.
    If the tide turns enough and the gulf state funds stop rolling in, expect “DAESH” to dash for the Turkish border.

    • Replies: @Wizard of Oz
  3. I think the signs are that progress in rolling back Daesh is likely to be extremely slow, even with Hezbollah & Iran backing the SAA on the ground, and Russia overhead. The Daesh position at Aleppo may at some point collapse and the city be fully liberated, but only after a lot more grinding attrition. This is because Turkey can and will continue to channel support to Daesh.

    Driving Daesh from eastern Syria will also be hard, for different reasons – Islamic State has its own territory in Iraq. Defeat will only come if Iraqi Shia forces (supported by Iran) are able to work together with Syrian Arab Army forces in a simultaneous pincer movement. Even then, holding Sunni Anbar would be hard unless they can win Sunni Arab hearts and minds – which the Shia regime in Bahgdad has signally failed to do. The secular (because non-Democratic) Syrian regime is actually in a much better position to restore order than is the democratic Shia Iraqi government.

    • Replies: @unit472
  4. mikhas says:

    “Third, most sources agree that currently Daesh controls roughly 80% of the land and 20% of the population”

    A ridiculous assessment which doesn´t say much since anyone can claim to be the “Caliph” of a piece of infertile desert without even being there and SAA wont argue with you either, their job is to protect Syrians and their property.

    So what Daesh really “controls”, which is also where they actually are, is probably 20-30% more or less fertile land and those being around a few cities and villages under Daesh.

  5. mikhas says:

    “Fourth, if things become really ugly for Daesh, they can start using the Turkish, Iraqi, Lebanese and Jordanian borders to hide from the Syrian/Iranian forces and enjoy the kind of safe heaven the Afghans had in Pakistan during the Soviet invasion.”

    They could, but the SAA Russian and Syrian air force´s created facts on the ground not to say the geo-polititical reality as it is, say´s otherwise.

    For “Sultan” Erdogan, keeping standing impatient armies of mercenarie death squads is a costly business which would immediately create all kinds of problems. There is a reason why he want his proxies in Syria, not in Turkey, the same goes for King Playstation in Jordan. It wont be easy for these people to get back and if they do they will certainly not survive for long, Russians are meticulously thorough in what they are doing and they learned it well in Chechnya, also fighting Saudi/US supported terrorists, so are the Syrians.

  6. Why bother with The Saker’s overblown claims to expertise when he hasn’t – unless my search in his article for Cuba and Cuban misfired – mentioned the juiciest bit of up to date gossip on who’s saving and who’s dissing the Assad boy.

    I idly clicked on an email from a Jewish fellow traveller with me last April-May on a Daniel Pipes led tour to, inter alia, the Negev and found a reference to a news site that I’ d never heard of. It, and other links to The Times (of London) et al. referred to several thousand Cuban troops going to Syria to support Assad. (Even if it is untrue it is important news that The Saker should be on top of).

    No doubt my fellow traveller was concerned that the Cuban arrival could be connected to Iran strengthening forces which would threaten Israel’s hold on the Golan Heights while the Palestinians are apparently revving something up elsewhere and distracting the IDF. Maybe.

    I’m inclined to be glad that the Assad lesser evil is likely to survive when Turkey is on the cusp of ceasing to be a country the West can be comfortable with and Sunni victory in Syria would be a humanitarian disaster.

  7. annamaria says:

    “CENTCOM, one of six U.S. military commands that divide the planet up like a pie, has at least 1,500 intelligence analysts (military, civilian, and private contractors) all to itself. Let me repeat that: 1,500 of them. CENTCOM is essentially the country’s war command, responsible for most of the Greater Middle East, that expanse of now-chaotic territory filled with strife-torn and failing states that runs from Pakistan’s border to Egypt…
    And mind you, that’s just the analysts, not the full CENTCOM intelligence roster for which we have no figure at all. In other words, even if that 1,500 represents a full count of the command’s intelligence analysts, not just the ones at its Tampa headquarters but in the field at places like its enormous operation at al-Udeid Air Base in Qatar, CENTCOM still has almost half as many of them as military personnel on the ground in Iraq (3,500 at latest count). Now, try to imagine what those 1,500 analysts are doing, even for a command deep in a “quagmire” in Syria and Iraq, as President Obama recently dubbed it (though he was admittedly speaking about the Russians), as well as what looks like a failing war, 14 years later, in Afghanistan, and another in Yemen led by the Saudis but backed by Washington. Even given all of that, what in the world could they possibly be “analyzing”?
    “Tomgram: Engelhardt, Creating an Un-Intelligence Machine.”

    What else one would expect from the mercenaries doing an unjust war? As Hudson wrote about the financialized industrialization of the Western “democracies:” “We are dealing with multiple organ failure.”

  8. “since no US politician can afford to tell the American public the basic truth that the US is not omnipotent…”

    And yet, the majority of Americans are isolationists who, given their choice, wouldn’t want the U.S. involved in most of these nasty screwups to begin with.

    And: “I don’t think I have ever heard of a “sulking superpower”’.

    Ahh, the Achilles complex. Who or what occasion shall be our Patroclus?

  9. unit472 says:

    The number of Russian ‘sorties’ generated is being conflated with the number of air strikes. One jet can bomb a number of targets so the idea that 28 Russian strike jets are being armed and flying 100 sorties per day is propaganda even if all the missions are just 100 miles or so from Latakia.

    It is worth noting as well that US airstrikes over Kobane became most effective when long range B-1 bombers were deployed. These aircraft could loiter over the battlefield and be called in to deliver ordnance when and where it was needed. With a full bomb load Russian aircraft in Syria can only remain airborne for about 1 1/2 hours ( absent aerial refueling) so their ability to be directed to new targets after take-off is limited.

    • Replies: @rod1963
    , @5371
    , @Bill Jones
  10. Tom Welsh says:

    “Not only is the Obama Administration at an absolutely unprecedented level of incompetence and intellectual mediocrity…”

    I would dispute that judgment, although it is a natural one if you have not studied US history in depth. Have you read, for instance, the speeches and books of US president Theodore Roosevelt? Not only did Teddy match the worst of the Nazis’ racist rhetoric (indeed, they could well have copied some of his remarks word for word), his aggressive bluster was a lot more flagrant than anything coming from the USA today (with the possible exception of the mental patients McCain and Clinton).

  11. unit472 says:
    @Simon in London

    For all the talk about the Russian juggernaut ( or is it jugger naught?) in 2003 the US military had moved from its staging areas, fought its way across Iraq and taken Baghdad in two weeks! For the next year or so things were pretty quiet. Western journalists and even tourists could travel around Iraq with little fear. Then things started going downhill as the Saddam Fedayeen regrouped and morphed into the Sunni resistance and Shia militias started their attacks. Wiping out 4000 Sunni fighters during the 2nd battle of Fallujah didn’t even slow the war down. In fact, it led to the ‘surge’ where even more US soldiers had to be deployed to achieve a deceptive calm over the nation and allow Obama to begin withdrawing American forces.

    The Sunni majority in Syria is a permanent feature of that Arab nation and Assad can call his army the Syrian Arab Army but if it is allied and dependent upon Iran and Russia it will never be seen as legitimate by the majority in that nation and therein lies the problem.

    • Replies: @rod1963
    , @Anonymous
  12. Tom Welsh says:

    USS “Theodore Roosevelt” is having a bad time of it. What is the score so far this year – “sunk” twice by a French submarine and a Russian submarine, and then “moved on” by a nearby volley of Russian cruise missiles? Her crew must be getting as nervous as that of the USS “Donald Duck”, many of whom requested early retirement after their close encounter with an unarmed SU-24. Oh dear!

  13. One important item not mentioned in this piece, is the need for Russia to deploy a special forces unit, behind enemy lines, tasked with the evacuation of all area homosexuals, in order to save them from the cruel fate of being thown from the tops of the few remaing high-rise structures. Or, if that is not possible, then targeting for aircraft should be redirected to do destroy all remaining said high-rise structures, thus denying ISIS their preferred method, apparently, for dispatching said homosexuals.

  14. rod1963 says:

    Also most of our aircraft deployed against ISIS come back with their full bomb load, day after day, month after month, as to get a okay for a bomb drop it has to be approved by Pentagon lawyers.

    Which makes our so-called air-strikes a complete joke, since the AF is not allowed to hit most targets. Look we haven’t degraded anything of ISIS, whether it is training sites, weapon sites, you name, ISIS can operate safely in the American zone.

  15. rod1963 says:

    Taking Iraq was easy, it had no real military to speak of. The Wehrmacht Army of 1942 could just have easily rolled up Iraq.

    As for Syria, it was fine until the U.S. and the Gulf States decided to destabilize Assad and started funding and training Sunni terrorists to do our dirty work. They did a pretty good job, slaughtering a bunch of religious minorities, secularists, women, gays.

    Also there is no such thing as legitimacy in the ME. That was a fiction created by Neo-Cons and the Bush administration. Legitimacy in the ME is established through the power of the gun. The ME can only be ruled by strong men. This is why there are real functioning democracies in the ME outside of Israel.

    • Replies: @JoaoAlfaiate
  16. Vendetta says:
    @Wizard of Oz

    Gossip is not credible information. The latest gossip also includes the Chinese aircraft carrier arriving off the Syrian coast and 150,000 Russian troops on standby for deployment to Syria…total nonsense.

    Few Cuban officers arriving as technical advisors is actually plausible but it’s also totally non-consequential. Few thousand Cuban troops deploying to Syria and having yet to appear on video? Nonsense.

    • Replies: @Wizard of Oz
  17. AndrewR says:

    I’m not a military expert but I can’t imagine conflict between the US and Russia in Syria escalating to nuclear war. Wouldnt there have to be an existential threat to Russia for the Russians to use nukes? A few jets blown up in Syria doesnt seem like that big a deal in the big picture (not that I advocate US escalation in Syria)

    • Replies: @Bill Jones
  18. Sherman says:

    It is very difficult, if not impossible, to win a war using air strikes alone – especially against guerrilla forces.

    Russia can keep bombing ISIS but this will not end the fighting and, at best, it will only postpone Assad’s inevitable ouster.

  19. @Wizard of Oz

    … a news site that I’ d never heard of.

    FYI: Debka File is run by ex-Mossad employees and, alongside the occasional useful piece of news, has been known to traffic in disinformation. Handle with care.

    It, and other links to The Times (of London) et al. referred to several thousand Cuban troops going to Syria to support Assad. (Even if it is untrue it is important news that The Saker should be on top of).

    The Cuban deployment story appears to be another hoax, just like the Chinese aircraft carrier that was said to be heading for Syria, and the Russian missiles that were said to have crashed in Iran. As I said, Debka File often traffics in disinfo … beware.

    • Replies: @Wizard of Oz
  20. @rod1963

    Is Israel a Middle Eastern country? The folks in charge in Palestine these days remind me of the denizens of Manhattan’s Upper Eastside-who come largely from Eastern Europe.

  21. 5371 says:

    Yes, tell me more about the USAF’s awesomely effective bombing campaign against IS, a good laugh is always welcome.

  22. Sean says:

    If the rebellion against the Alawite regime of Assad is all US backed, and all Sunnis are Daesh and false flag Daesh (including the Kurds) then all the reporting of Daesh fighting, killing and taking territory from Kurds, and the Free Syrian Army around Aleppo (controlling a US supply route from Turkey) is lies.

    If it is Assad verses Daesh I suppose the barrel bombing is Assad (who alone has an air force) killing the most civilians in Syria and causing the floods of refugees to Europe. If they are killed they are Daesh so the dead become terrorists post mortem, eh?

    US politicians have come up with two suggestions to help their “moderate terrorists”: supply advanced anti-air missiles to Daesh and impose a no-fly zone. I consider both of these suggestions highly impractical and very dangerous.

    Except that the Kurds have fought Daesh and defeated them with US air support while the Free Syrian army are being defeated by Daesh who have Russian air support. Nothing suggests that Daesh, the Free Syrian Army, the Kurds (who have forgotten more about unconventional warfare than Daesh will ever know) or the Assad regime can hold territory against air power. What is happening is a minority regime is crushing a popular uprising with help from 3 foreign countries.

    A Guatemalan general in the Reagan era explained how to restore security in the face of a popular uprising. First kill a third of the people and then force another third to flee the country, This last should be easy because no one is going to stay and wait for Alawite militia vengeance, or Isis. This exodus of the Sunni uprising’s popular base will be great for Assad, but for the western countries who are going to have to take “their share” of the Syrian Sunni Arabs and Kurds who are 70% of the population. Take a look at this map of Syrian population densityAleppo has the highest population density. When Assad takes back the areas where most of the population live or bombs them they are going to flee to Europe, no Sunni in the populated areas being taken from the FSA by Assad and Isis will say put.

    Two hours ago The battle for Aleppo, compounded by Russian airstrikes on the city, threatens to create a new refugee exodus from Syria, Turkey’s prime minister, Ahmet Davutoğlu, has warned.

    Speaking after talks with the German chancellor, Angela Merkel, Davutoğlu called for action to prevent a new wave of refugees from moving north across the Turkish border. Aleppo is under assault both from Isis and from forces backing the Syrian government, including Iranian fighters and Russian aircraft.

    “It is our priority that steps will be taken to prevent an increase of refugees from Aleppo due to the offensive [there] by Iranian militia, Isis and Russian attacks,” Davutoğlu said on Sunday. “Aleppo is Syria’s second biggest city. The [Russian] airstrikes in and around Aleppo as well as the Isis attack on the city worry us.

    If Nato is for defending Nato countries from being invaded or capitulating to an occupation, then it would tell Assad that he has got everything he is going to get and unless there is an armistice the Free Syrian Army (that is the people who were the original popular uprising that kicked the well armed Assad regular forces and out of Aleppo and are now being attacked simultaneously by Islamic state, Assad forces, Iranian infantry and Russian airstrikes) would be defended by Nato airpower. But of course Nato is run by the Americans whose policy, apparently, is the demographic liquidation of ethnic majorities in European countries. See here and here.

    • Replies: @JoaoAlfaiate
  23. Anonymous • Disclaimer says:

    If US carries out it’s threat to give Syrian Jihadists sophisticated AA weapons, would it be possible for Russia or Iran to provide similar weapons to Yemen Houthis?

  24. @Vendetta

    #17 have you actually followed up with a search? My word “gossip” was just a device for suggesting that The Saker’s level of informant isn’t very reliable. He could have at least given an assessment of an item in the London Times (for one) and Havana’s denial…

  25. @Seamus Padraig

    Thanks for info about the dodgy source. Maybe I can still avoid reading The Saker’s dodgy stuff by just reading the Comments…:)

  26. Leftist conservative [AKA "radical_centrist"] says: • Website

    yawn….who cares? The really important aspects of american policy and politics are domestic.

    If russia wants to bomb syria, who cares?
    Pull our troops out of foreign nations and put them on the border…cut the military and spy agencies’ budgets.

    • Replies: @Kiza
  27. Kiza says:
    @Leftist conservative

    Exactly right. But only in your dreams, the MIC greed has not boundaries in the known and unknown Universe.

    Let us hope that they have a self-preservation instinct and that the US MIC will not spell the end of humanity. Other than this, a yawn here too.

  28. Akira says: • Website

    The Soviet Principles of Warfare at the Operational and Tactical Levels*

    1 . Speed : The achievement of mobility and the maintenance of a high tempo of combat operations.

    2. The concentration of the main effort and the creation thereby of superiority in men and equipment over the enemy at the decisive place and time .

    3. Surprise.

    4. Aggressiveness in battle-no letup in the attack, breakthrough, and pursuit .

    5 . The preservation of combat effectiveness among one’s own troops by (a) being properly prepared and efficiently organized, (b) maintaining at all times efficient command and control over one’s forces, and (c) maintaining morale and the will tofight amongst the troops.

    6 . Realistic planning : Ensuring that the aim and plan of any operation conform to the realities of the situation, attempting neither too much nor too little .

    7. Ensuring cooperation of all arms of the service and ensuring the coordination of effect towards achieving the main objectives .

    8. Depth: Attempting simultaneous action upon the enemy to the entire depth of his deployment and upon objectives deep in his rear, including action to weaken his morale.

    *Soviet principles of warfare at all levels stress the primacy of the offensive as a means of waging war.

    • Replies: @Wizard of Oz
  29. @Sean

    Popular uprising? Right; purchased by Qatar, Saudi Arabia, etc. with political support from the the USA, “Assad must go”, etc., etc. I don’t suppose the US removing Saddam from power had anything to do with the rise of Daesh as well. Europe was either too stupid or too weak to resist the USA and now the Europeans are getting what they deserve, about 1,000,000 refugees. If the Europe had any back bone they’d separate themselves ASAP from crazy American middle east “policy”.

    • Replies: @Anonymous
    , @Sean
  30. KA says:

    Putin will face soon reelection Neocons( Hillary or Huckabee or) will be elected after 1 yr.So there are predictable undercurrents Putin wants to wrap it up while neocon is getting ready for a meal that might include Iran and Russia.
    Can Putin kill enough and reclaim territory ?
    Saudi Arab unless the regime is changed would continue to work with Israel and Neocons to realize their aim .
    Will Putin take the fight to Saudi Arab?
    IS can still infiltrate with little prodding Georgia and provoke war in Abhakaia area and Chechen.
    Obama’s plan of bringing more soldiers can work against IS moving from Afghanistan to Russia but under neocon it can facilitate the same.
    So next few weeks should clear the muddiness . Its not given that Putin would succeed.
    Powerfull forces and stupid foot soldiers are confronting Putin without much logic or worries of consequences .

    • Replies: @Avery
  31. Avery says:

    {..about 1,000,000 refugees…}

    correction: Islamic refugees.

    They will eat away Christian Europe from inside.
    I do have sympathy for innocent Muslim victims of American Neocon criminality.
    But, sorry: Islam and Christianity are not compatible.

    Islam is one of the great religions, but is 100% intolerant of other religions, e.g. Christianity, Buddhism, Hinduism.
    Proof: there are 1000s of mosques in Christian Europe.
    There are zero, zilch, nada, butkus churches in Saudi Arabia.

    Majority Sunni Islam is even intolerant of the other branches of Islam, e.g. Alevi, Alawite, Shia.
    Sunnis hate any other Muslim who is not Sunni.
    That kind of mentality inside Europe is the death of Western civilization.

  32. Avery says:

    {IS can still infiltrate with little prodding Georgia and provoke war in Abhakaia area and Chechen.}

    Under neocon puppet Saakashvili, Georgia allowed Islamist terrorists to nest in Pankisi gorge and send terrorists to Chechnya and elsewhere.
    No more: ruling party Georgian Dream is patriotic Georgian.
    They are not Neocon puppets.

    Abkhazia is independent of Georgia, and even a single Islamist terrorist will not survive more than 24 hrs there.
    Chechen strongman Kadyrov despises Islamist Chechen terrorists worse than Putin.
    Kadyrov’s troops have been very succesful in cleansing Chechnya of Islamist terrorists.
    Kadyrov has been asking Putin for permission to send tough Chechen volunteers to Syria to kill Islamist terrorists.

    Let me ask you: how much do you know about Caucasus to make such outlandish predictions ?

  33. @Christian

    What you say sounds plausible to a dispassionate reader so you may be able to answer convincingly the question why the Saudis and Gulf states would be keen to get rid of Assad and just how much they want it whether you measure their desire in money or otherwise. Is it as simple as their all being scared witless by Iran?

    • Replies: @Christian
  34. @Akira

    #29 How do those principles differ from the US Marines or Rangers or indeed the US Army generally?

  35. Christian says:
    @Wizard of Oz

    I can only speculate, but yes fear of Iran looks to be big on their list. If Iran and Hezbollah can succeed in clearing out DAESH from Syrian and Iraq, it cements Iran as the clear power in the region. This is probably a good thing as although Shia Islam can be militant too, they seem to operate with clear rational regional objectives, I don’t see any evidence of them exporting international terrorism or attacking Christians like the Saudi back takfiri groups do.

    • Agree: Seamus Padraig
  36. Anonymous • Disclaimer says:

    LMAO, yup, the popular uprising of disaffected Somalis from Minnesota, British-born Pakis, Chechens, et al. The removal of Assad/destruction of Syria has been in the works for over two decades and explicitly stated in neocon policy (“The Ledeen Doctrine”, “Clean Break”, et al.) prior to regime change in Iraq.

  37. KA says:

    “Report: Russia Blocked Israeli Overflight of Syria, Lebanon
    Warned Israel to Stay Out of Russia-Controlled Airspace
    by Jason Ditz, October 18, 2015″

    This is unacceptable to the neocons. They came to the politics to further Zionism and the extreme form of the Zionism at a cost to the Gentiles riding on the back of the donkeys from London to Alabama . Now their plan is facing a serious challenge from Russia .With Iran and also China on board militarily and diplomatically , US is notion a position to face off Russia . Russia won’t give in. Neither will Neocons. That means the secretary to the boss that is America to Israel will suffer from this unavoidable situation. Despite obvious trajectory and the direction of the developing situation in Arab in 1930s UK could not get out of Arab because that would have brought down whole British edifice . They call it system failure . Zionism was inserted into all atoms of the British ruling elite,defense,and finances. At least ,they could leave with the consent of the Zionist and handover to US . But USdoesnt have any body to hand over to. US actually is the combination of Italian and Spanish situation of medieval times. It brings wealth and resources from abroad and hand it over to war chest ,banks and foreign government and same time supplies its mercenaries to protect those business and wage those wars
    So it seems America will be in the crosshairs of Israel and Russia.

  38. I’m praying that Vladimir Putin will deliver us from the Neocoms.

    • Agree: Seamus Padraig
  39. Greg S. says:

    Reports today that the U.S. is bombing civilian infrastructure in Aleppo such as power plants in order to create refugees and hinder the Syrian advance (scorched earth policy). At the same time they are blindly dropping weapons to the Syrian opposition and ISIS with the same goal in mind.

    There is one word for this: evil.

    • Agree: Kiza
    • Replies: @Wizard of Oz
    , @Sam Shama
  40. @unit472

    Ah yes, the capacity of the Russian air force must be inferior to the useless bunch of tossers who, on 9/11 were with half a trillion dollars a year incapable of defending their own headquarters against \$12 worth of boxcutters.

    Thanks for the laugh.

  41. @AndrewR

    It’s not the Russians who will use nukes.
    Please try to keep up.

  42. @Greg S.

    Where is this bombing reported? And what is the evidence for current US assistance to ISIL/ISIS (I’m assuming that ISIS has benefited from a lot of US weapons and even training in the past – in pre “Caliphate” days when it could be said that the US didn’t know what it was doing)?

    • Replies: @KA
    , @annamaria
  43. Will someone who claims to know something about the situation in Syria – even The Saker – answer a question which arises from what I have just read in the FT.

    Apparently as much as 90 per cent of the electricity supply in Syrian areas controlled by the regime or by ISIS is produced in gas fired plants now in areas under the control of ISIS. As ISIS doesn’t command the skills needed to run the plants there is some sort of deal between the regime and ISIS. As both are enemies of the US under Obama why haven’t the plants been destroyed?

  44. Anonymous • Disclaimer says: • Website

    A few points to build up on this analysis:

    1. Absence of any US carrier in Persian Gulf was announced back beginning of August, therefore it CAN’T be the result of Russian cruise missile volley which took place beginning of October – some two months later.
    See e.g. this link “U.S. won’t have aircraft carrier in Persian Gulf for at least 2 months”, dated August 5th :
    The provided rationale was: “The official said that’s because the Navy has to schedule needed maintenance after years of extended deployments and because of reduced spending due to mandatory budget cuts.
    Anyway, Persian Gulf remains under control of US aircraft based in Emirates, Qatar, Kuwait etc. which could be reinforced in case of need.

    2. It is to be hoped that the US do not attack Russian aircraft in Syria. That being said, not only candidates like Clinton are openly flouting such ideas, US strategist Zbigniew Brzezinski is on record that the US should send an ultimatum to Russia to stop attacking those Syrian rebels supported by the US (that is: all save Islamic State and JAN), under penalty of the US “disarming” the Russian base in Lattakia – meaning of course attacking it.
    See for yourself: (dated October 5th)
    This is impressive since Brzezinski has generally refrained from mindless go-to-war “Grr Waf Waf Patriotism”. He is a strategic thinker and wants the US to use force only when its strategic interests are really threatened. Now this man is adamant that this is the time for US to risk a shooting war against Russia.
    Brzezinski is without official power, but he is not without influence. Even more, the fact that he thinks this way is strong indication that other people, closer to active power circles, may think the same.
    Probability of US attacking the Lattakia Russian base I would say remains relatively low. But it is certainly NOT neglectible.

    3. Should the US choose such policy and attack the Russian base in Lattakia, a few things are sure, many more are HIGHLY unpredictable.
    a) On the “Sure” list:
    – None of the two countries would use nuclear weapons. Stakes are just way too low for that. Similarly, neither the 1999 Indo-Pakistan war nor the 1969 Soviet-Chinese war did result in nuclear use
    – None of the two countries would wage the slightest attack on territory of the other. That would be way too dangerous, risking escalation towards nuclear use
    – The Russian base in Lattakia would be incapacitated / destroyed and Russia would lose that battle
    – US forces would pay a hefty price for their victory
    b) On the “Unpredictable” list is… well all the rest!
    – Beginning with Russia’s follow-on. Russia losing a battle wouldn’t mean the war to be over. Moscow would retaliate in basically unpredictable ways on other topics and other battlefields in the world, sooner or later, overtly or covertly. Question is: if you challenge Russian strategists to come up with creative ways to harm US interests worldwide while minimizing the risks to Russia, what will they invent? Nobody knows, not even them, since they have not received such challenge yet
    – Reaction of other major powers would be… well, something to watch. Thinking primarily about China, which may well freak out and engage in a massive military buildup… or do nothing on the surface and wait for America to further weaken itself while comforting Moscow with words, plus just enough support to avoid Russia to abandon the fight.
    – Also the Europeans: acquiescence of majority of European populations to let America define their foreign policy for them and then follow it more or less willingly or grudgingly is based on the idea that this arrangement is simple, cheap and above all safe. Washington doing something as radical as attacking Russian forces over policy disagreements in what in European eyes is a second or third-rate country would shatter that idea, if not collapse it entirely. Then it would be replaced… with what?
    – Same question might be asked about the Japanese.
    Brzezinski’s recommended course of action would lead to quick albeit costly victory, however as for the future would open so large uncertainties that I would say his (and other’s) advice will probably be ignored. Starting a war with Russia, even a relatively small one, is not how one can win an American election.

    That being said, surprises do exist, and sometimes advices for “strategic boldness” (as Brzezinski puts it) are followed for good. So you never know. And then, even if nothing happens before the US election, the days after may be much more dangerous for Russian forces in Syria… which probably won’t be out of the country then, let’s face it: too many external powers are too much interested to continue fueling the flames of Syrian civil war for it to be won – by anybody – in a single year’s timeframe.

  45. Sam Shama says:
    @Greg S.

    Where are these reports emanating from please? (I am not disputing them, simply wish to see any links and analyses)

    • Replies: @5371
  46. 5371 says:
    @Sam Shama

    I don’t think someone who quoted Business Insider as a reputable source has any standing to be quibbling with what anyone else may present, do you, Scam Shameful?

    • Replies: @Sam Shama
  47. 5371 says:

    Zbig is only slightly more compos mentis than our own Wanker of Oz … I wouldn’t worry about anyone taking his every word for gospel.

  48. Anonymous • Disclaimer says:

    True, but not much shock and awe in the fight against Daesh..

  49. KA says:
    @Wizard of Oz

    “We know al Qaeda [leader Ayman al-] Zawahiri is supporting the opposition in Syria. Are we supporting al Qaeda in Syria? (…) If you’re a military planner or if you’re a secretary of state and you’re trying to figure out do you have the elements of an opposition that is actually viable: we don’t see that.”
    H Clinton 2012

    “When you have a professional army that is well-armed and sponsored by two large states who have huge stakes in this, and they are fighting against a farmer, a carpenter, an engineer who started out as protesters and suddenly now see themselves in the midst of a civil conflict —  the notion that we could have, in a clean way that didn’t commit U.S. military forces, changed the equation on the ground there was never true.”
    Obama Feb 2012

    “When you get farmers, dentists, and folks who have never fought before going up against a ruthless opposition in Assad, the notion that they were in a position to suddenly overturn not only Assad but also ruthless, highly trained jihadists if we just sent a few arms is a fantasy. And I think it’s very important for the American people — but maybe more importantly, Washington and the press corps — to understand that.” Obama June 2012

    “We’re not going to just dive in and get involved with a civil war that in fact involves some elements of people who are genuinely trying to get a better life but also involve some folks who would over the long term do the United States harm.” Sept 2012

    Even that highly specific horrible outcome was foreseen in the imperial halls of power. This was revealed by the recent release of a 2012 Defense Intelligence Agency report that had widely circulated in the upper echelons of foreign policy.

    They knew back in 2012 that the elements representing anti Assad in 2012 were essentially mercenaries,religious thugs,and rabid fanatics.

    NOW another example of amnestic cautionary benevolent tales from the warlords –be careful.

    “U.S. intelligence officials warn that Russia’s military intervention in Syria has stirred the wrath of Islamic radicals who may retaliate by staging terrorist attacks inside Russia…

    “Because it will only inflame, I’ve used the phrase ‘pour gasoline’ on the civil war of Syria.”
    Ashton Carter

    So the knowledge of possible blow back existed in the MUSH brain of these dimwited geniuses . So why do they go there and poke at the hornets nest .?

    I see your next post about IS and Syrian gas electricity supply.
    There might be many explanations how the supplies of gas and heat and electricities are maintained. If there were even a possibility of what you are saying , I am how during how did that escape the experts on the FOX.

  50. Chaban says:

    Russia and the U.S. work together. It’s becoming more obvious by the day.

    Putin used his U.N. speech (very mild and boring) as an excuse to come speak with Obama one on one without losing face with the Russian people.

    Why has the biggest market rally on Wall Street and the City of London in four years matched perfectly the “Russian intervention” in Syria? Obviously, the globalist money changers are not at all worried about their interests in the Middle East.

    Also, what about the Russian media (RT, Sputnik) absolutely trashing the people of Western Europe trying to do something against the ethnic cleasing currently taking place in the land of their ancestors through the “migrant crisis” (aka the Coudenhove-Kalergi plan to fill Europe with tens of millions of African and Asians to wipe out the white population)?

    Let us know when Russia actually sanctions a mega U.S. corporation and/or shut down (or nationalize) the Russian central bank.

    • Replies: @Kiza
  51. Sam Shama says:

    I shall quibble to my heart’s content, troubled not a bit by creatures representing a Darwinian Paradox or missing a set of chromosomes.

  52. annamaria says:
    @Wizard of Oz

    “And what is the evidence for current US assistance to ISIL/ISIS…?”

    For instance: “Rebels battling the Syrian army and its allies near Aleppo said on Monday they had received new supplies of U.S.-made anti-tank missiles from states opposed to President Bashar al-Assad…”
    And what are the relationships between the unnamed states and the US? Answer: there is a very cordial understanding. The US and the above mentioned states (including the kingdom and sponsor of the most vicious terrorist groups) are working harmoniously towards a mutual goal.
    Any more Qs on the innocence of the US in the ongoing disaster in Syria? There have been dozens of links on this site, which provided the evidences specifically for those modest minds that cannot believe, categorically cannot believe that the US are able to foment death and destruction in the countries that pose no danger for the US.
    It is also highly disrespectful towards the US’ neocons to suggest that they have designed a policy of a kind ” the US didn’t know what it was doing.” The neocons know pretty well why the US have been arming and augmenting the bands of jihadists in the Middle East. Cui bono?

  53. Sam Shama says:

    You make a fair point regarding Zbigniew’s recent missive in the FT; an action he had refrained from, for a period of time.

    Also, do disregard the effluvium floating in your direction from the four digit pikey commenting on this thread.

  54. @Wizard of Oz

    I idly clicked on an email from a Jewish fellow traveller with me last April-May on a Daniel Pipes led tour

    Working your way through the alphabet, Oz?

    Team B, Pipes, Wohlstetter, and the neocons’s “thirty-year fight against the national security apparatus in which the [neoconservatives] mastered the art of manipulating intelligence in order to implement hard-line, militaristic policies.”

    — you realize, Wiz, you are known by the company you keep.

    • Replies: @Wizard of Oz
  55. @Anonymous

    Brzezinski is without official power, but he is not without influence. Even more, the fact that he thinks this way is strong indication that other people, closer to active power circles, may think the same.

    Zbig is 87 years old. One worries that he’s fretting about being reduced to ultimate irrelevance, therefore making outrageous statements, a last gasp venting of a lifetime of hating what Communist Russia did to his beloved Poland. It’s not an unheard – of phenomenon.

    Ashton Carter is a far more worrisome character. His partnership with Dennis Ross in crafting a gotcha strategy re Iran for whomever won the presidency in 2008 puts him squarely in the neoconservative/zionist/AIPAC camp, in my estimation.

    Carter has been busy — when he’s not warning Russia that it’s making a mistake and will get bogged down in Syria (which he knows because he intends to haul in the quicksand), he’s twisting the arm of the Italian foreign minister to support the US in bogging Russia down in Syria and continuing support for US in Afghanistan, and he’s arranging for more nukes in Germany, lest Angela wander from the reservation.

    The holocaustism discussion that is still going on in the Flagless Germany thread is, unfortunately, of tremendous importance: the USA, and without a doubt Israel, are still fighting the 20th century wars in Europe, using the same tactics: demonization, mendacity, destruction of civilians and historical cultural monuments and legacy, all while claiming virtue and victimhood for themselves and nothing but pure evil for the actual targets/victims of their demonization, lies, destruction.

    Telling the truth about the (false) holocaust narrative (aka denying the holocaust) is not just a moral imperative; the future of the USA morally, socially, politically, culturally and economically depends upon it.

    It’s worth noting that Brzezinski has, in the long course of his role as a public intellectual, stated numerous times that “Bolsheviks, Lenin, Trotsky, Stalin” were responsible for the greatest mass murders history has even known.

    Having read numerous of his books and papers, I have not come across a similar denunciation of Germany in WWI or WWII.

    Max Hastings can’t approach Brzezinski’s intellectual depth and breadth. Nevertheless, the British crown saw fit to knight Sir Hastings and bruit him as Britain’s foremost historian of WWI and WWII. In a 2011 conversation with London Daily Telegraph editor Toby Harndon, Hastings averred that

    “The United States and Britain by allowing themselves to ally with Stalin and the Soviet Union, and allowing Stalin’s tyranny do most of the dirty work of defeating the Nazis — this was a huge moral compromise.
    And it seems to me that except for the one enormity — the single enormity or the holocaust, Stalin’s tyranny, morally indistinguishable from Hitler’s tyranny. I mean, these were both terrible terrible people! And it’s no good pretending the Soviet union was anything else but a bloody tyranny that did terrible terrible things.”

    Thus it is essential for the British, the USA and of course Jews to sustain the holocaust narrative as dogma lest the foundation of the last 100 years be revealed as the bloody sand that it is. And that Zbigniew Brezinski recognized.

  56. annamaria says:

    A tragic story of the formerly prosperous Libya, which reveals a blueprint for Syria.
    “Libya: From Africa’s Wealthiest Democracy Under Gaddafi to Terrorist Haven After US Intervention:”

    • Replies: @Avery
  57. Avery says:

    Because Gaddafi was naive enough to give up his nuclear program vs empty promises, and was stupid enough to publicly proclaim that he would stop using dollars for oil trade.
    US cannot afford to lose the reserve currency status of dollar.

    One of the main pillars of our American (fake) prosperity is the status of dollar as reserve currency. It’s a great gig: we print endless rolls of paper, and get valuable commodities in return.
    Another reason The Empire hates Russia with a passion: Russia and China are leading the quiet move to de-dollarize world trade.

  58. Sean says:

    Some people here seem to think the CIA are ten feet tall. Syria had huge Russian supplied armed forces, and ruthless security police (who were interrogating black rendition suspects for the US). Assad ran a military dictatorship that could not have been overthrown by external forces. The US would have long since overthrown Iran could secretly supply the rebels with weapons to shoot down Assad’s planes if it had wanted. Israel could move against Assad militarily in the Golan, if it wanted

    Iran is the target of neocons, and they will ignore Syria, or now because it is effectively neutralised. The are going all out for Iran. Are the senate republican all clamouring for an attack on Assad like they are claLindeen is representative of the neocon inasmuch they want Iran attacked. I have given a link for Israeli strategists not wanting Assad overthrown. It is very silly to think the neocons are being thwarted over Syria, because they like the Syrians fighting each other a complete overthrow of Assad would mean the US being involved there for the foreseeable future, thereby making an attack on Iran unlikely

    The US can overthrow American backyard countries like Guatemala and Chile where the army stage a coup. The idea that in the Middle East the only reason a 12% Alawite minority dominating the army and state in a country with 70% Sunni population ran into problems was because of external subversion is absurd. Egyptians angry over a secular military government destabilized Egypt and that resulted in the overthrow of the government by the a democratically elected Muslim Brotherhood, which was in turn overthrown by the army in a US backed coup.

    Syrian forces including the demographic were so against Assad, because he is an Alawite ruling a 70% Sunni majority state.The Sunni Saudi’s may support the Sunnis in Syria and to that extent the assad’s regime has always been based on an fundamental instability. one that is is inherent to the Sunnis being 70% of the population.



    [He] is not concerned with the absolute size of populations, but rather with the share of teenagers and young men. If this share becomes too big compared to the total population, we are facing a youth bulge. The problem starts when families begin to produce three, four or more sons. This will cause the sons to fight over access to the positions in society that give power and prestige. Then you will have a lot of boys and young men running around filled with aggression and uncontrollable hormones. And then we shall experience mass killings, until a sufficient number of young men have been eradicated to match society’s ability to provide positions for the survivors.

    According to Heinsohn, 80 per cent of world history is about young men in nations with a surplus of sons, creating trouble. This trouble may take many forms — a increase in domestic crime, attempts at coups d’état, revolutions, riots and civil wars. Occasionally, the young commit genocide to secure for themselves the positions that belonged to those they killed. Finally, there is war to conquer new territory, killing the enemy population and replacing it with one’s own.

    But, as Heinsohn emphasizes again and again, the unrest and the violent acts caused by youth bulges have nothing to do with famine or unemployment. In his book he describes it as follows: “The dynamic of a youth bulge — it cannot be emphasized too often — is not caused by a lack of food. A younger brother, who may be employed as a stable hand by the first-born son and who may be well fed and perhaps even fat, does not seek food but position, one that can guarantee him recognition, influence and dignity. Not the underweight but rather the potential losers or the déclassé are pushing forward” (p. 21).

    In recent years the West has been facing a gigantic youth bulge in large parts of the Muslim world. This bulge is created by a Muslim population explosion. Over the course of just five generations (1900-2000) the population in the Muslim countries has grown from 150 million to 1 200 million — an increase of 800 per cent.

    • Replies: @KA
  59. @SolontoCroesus

    “….. by the company you keep”. But more tellingly by the clichés you trot out as a substitute for thought.

    I note that you make some reference to Team B.which I presume is some sort of attempt to use another cliché, namely “like father like son”. Having met Richard Pipes and learned from his son that he was still alive and well, I have, you sshouldn’t be surprised to read, done a bit of searching. Yes, if that is the point you are seeking to make, father too did mot understate the danger from the enemy du jours and was quite fierce in his advocacy of stern action.

  60. annamaria says:

    “MH-17 Case: ‘Old’ Journalism vs. ‘New’”

    ” Buk missile battery is large and difficult to conceal. The missiles themselves are 16-feet-long and are usually pulled around by truck. U.S. spy satellites, which supposedly can let you read a license plate in Moscow, surely would have picked up these images. And, if – for some inexplicable reason – a Buk battery was missed before July 17, 2014, it would surely have been spotted on an after-action review of the satellite imagery. But the U.S. government has released nothing of the kind…”
    Both the White House and presstituting MSM (The New Yorker and The Washington Post in particular) look like petty thieves re the MH17 story. Here is more: “… analysts reviewed other intelligence data, including recorded phone intercepts, and concluded that the shoot-down was carried out by a rogue element of the Ukrainian government, working with a rabidly anti-Russian oligarch, but that senior Ukrainian leaders, such as President Petro Poroshenko and Prime Minister Arseniy Yatsenyuk, were not implicated.”
    The above mentioned “oligarch” is Mr. Kolomojsky that has been whisked away from Ukraine to the US. A story of his alleged involvement into the MH17 tragedy:

  61. Kiza says:

    Yours is the theory that the Russian Liberals, the zio-oligarchs and the banksters are spreading through their media. It is pure garbage and there is a good chance that such theories emanate from the CIA dis-information division.

    I happen to be from another country in which exactly the same propaganda pattern was applied – through the domestic collaborators the CIA was spreading the “news” that the domestic leader opposed to them actually works for the US.

    When one day the US killed this leader, the story of him working for the US disappeared and the local “liberals” switched over to a story of the leader’s hidden billions of dollars, which were never found.

    If you are so stupid to have believed that Putin works for the US, then this is only your problem and nobody else’s.

    Also, any person with a heart feels for the destitute migrants flooding Europe, Muslim or not. This is what you call “Russian media trashing” Western Europe. I wonder why the Western European media are not trashing the cause of these destitute migrants: Usrael, Turkey, Saudi and, of course, EU itself. The “leading” EU countries were happy to bomb Libya to bring “democracy”. These migrants look like a comeuppance for their greed. Did any Western leader resign for bombing Libya, did any go to jail?

    I will not engage in any further commenting with you because you have a Micky Mouse understanding of the World.

    • Replies: @Chaban
    , @annamaria
  62. Chaban says:

    Putin has not sanctioned a single mega U.S. corporation in the last two years.
    Putin is supposedly intervening in Syria, yet he does nothing in Donbass.
    Markets all over the world began staging massive rallies the day after Putin and Obama met.
    Putin was hand picked by U.S. puppet Boris Yeltsin.
    Putin has not done anything to shut down the Russian Central Bank.
    The U.S. and Russia supposedly have different objective in Syria, yet they are now coordinating their flights in Syria’s airspace.
    Why is Russia coordinating its flights with a nation that has different objectives and is using Syria’s airspace illegally to boot?

    Yeah… millions of migrants decided to make the move to Europe the very same week, after years of wars in the Middle East… I’m sure it’s got nothing to do with nationalist parties topping the elections across Europe last year, with the people of Europe finally waking up after thirty years of population substitution… in other words, the elites decided to kick the population change into higher gear to prevent the great awakening.

  63. KA says:

    “Topple Assad and partition the country–Richard Hass

    . Destroy Syria once and for all. That is Washington’s operating strategy. It’s a plan that was first proposed by Brooking’s analyst Michael O’Hanlon who recently said:
    ““…a future Syria could be a confederation of several sectors: one largely Alawite (Assad’s own sect), spread along the Mediterranean coast; another Kurdish, along the north and northeast corridors near the Turkish border; a third primarily Druse, in the southwest; a fourth largely made up of Sunni Muslims; and then a central zone of intermixed groups in the country’s main population belt from Damascus to Aleppo…”

    John “Wacko” McCain has been the most strident proponent of the plan to break up Syria.

    Putin knows that if Washington’s strategy succeeds in Syria, it will be used in Iran and then again in Russia.

    Hillary Clinton has already thrown her support behind the O’Hanlon plan emphasizing the importance of “safe zones” that could be used to harbor Sunni militants and other enemies of the state.

    Yes you are right that Iran is the target of Israel. But Israel doesn’t mind at all to kill few hundred thousands Muslim of any stripe even for fun . More so if the fun is active and the participation has all the veneer of passivity . More so since a few Talfiri will be more than happy to allow the flight of death to Iran from Israel or US ship on Mediterranean.
    Then when Takfiri will show some nerve to complain against Israel, Israel will force the same remedial classes on American pupil in DC reminding the need to never to trust Muslim or Arab . It may decide to get another group trained by Jordan,Turkey,and lots of US money to go after those Tafkiris . Some terror expert with ” CIA ties” ( like the guy who just got the ticket to jail ) will hector on FOX to kill some more Muslims.

    Yoded Yinon , is he in his grave or has he been kept moving the way they allowed Sharon to move ? He can claim all the laurels that there are to claim for post 1945 Hitlerite vision of the world.

    • Replies: @annamaria
  64. LondonBob says:

    Sounds like the offensive is stalling, to be honest I was surprised the SAA was able to go on an offensive so soon. They really do seem to have been on the rack, albeit the denial of air superiority on the border with Turkey had been behind the most recent losses. The Russians need to increase their airforce there, I assume the takeover of Latakia civilian airport will allow this, as well as upgrade the weaponry available to the SAA. The Iranians also really need to commit sizeable elite troops, no weak militias. Not even closed the Rastan pocket yet, but still Aleppo is so close to being cut off, or indeed the Kuweires airbase being relieved with a potential link up with the Kurds to the north.

    Still think it well end in a negotiated peace, a full reconquest would take a year and more resources.

  65. annamaria says:

    “The “leading” EU countries were happy to bomb Libya to bring “democracy”. These migrants look like a comeuppance for their greed. Did any Western leader resign for bombing Libya, did any go to jail?”
    Very much on point. Where is a modern version of the Nuremberg Process?

    • Replies: @Kiza
  66. annamaria says:

    Jewish people are going to have a lot of soul searching similar to Germans’ soul searching after the WWII.

  67. Kiza says:

    Hello annamarina, (as a former European) I really have very little respect for the European leaders and even for the European citizens. It is hard to find even one decent nation in Europe excluding Russia. I can understand that their MSM are strictly controlled, albeit not as much as in the US, Canada, Australia and New Zealand. But it is totally obvious, even without consuming the MSM, that the same war criminals who bombed Libya to current total anarchy of a failed state are now building walls to protect themselves from the bombings’ expected outcome – the refugees. They have repackaged themselves as the “saviors” of their nations from the nasty subhuman Muslim refugees.

    Instead of cooling their heels in prison or better (Nuremberg had a death penalty for the ultimate crime of starting wars), these war criminals and their nations are taking a high moral ground and lecturing others on what is right and what is wrong. And I thought that only the Israelis knew chutzpah. But they all do belong to the same club: Israel, US, Turkey, GCC, and EU, the club of the killing, raping and pillaging nations. They steal other peoples’ property and call it “creating democracy” or some other crap like that.

    • Replies: @Seamus Padraig
  68. @Kiza

    But it is totally obvious, even without consuming the MSM, that the same war criminals who bombed Libya to current total anarchy of a failed state are now building walls to protect themselves from the bombings’ expected outcome – the refugees. They have repackaged themselves as the “saviors” of their nations from the nasty subhuman Muslim refugees.

    Huh? I’m afraid I don’t follow, Kiza. At the moment, I know of only one country in Europe that is “building walls” to keep illegal aliens out, and that is Hungary. Along with the US, a good many countries in Europe may well have participated in the destruction of Libya and/or Syria, but Hungary was not one of them.

  69. Kiza says:

    Hungary has already built its wall. Croatia, Slovenia and Austria are using their militaries to force back the refugees whilst preparing to build walls. None of these countries directly bombed Libya, but they are part of the EU. Also, you may have missed that all developed EU countries want to return refugees by force, not to their countries of origin, then to the non-EU countries Serbia, Macedonia and Turkey. Just kick them over the border and the problem is gone.

    Finally, please do not take “building walls” literally, many of the anti-refugee measures the EU is introducing are even worse than building walls.

    Also, please do not misunderstand that I am pro-refugee, because I am totally not. But, the developed EU countries bombed, but now want the poor non-EU countries to pay for the bombings’ externality – the refugees. I repeat: which EU war criminal was even charged for this crime, let alone sentenced?

    • Replies: @Anonymous
  70. Anonymous • Disclaimer says:

    How did Germany “bomb” Syria?

    • Replies: @Kiza
  71. Kiza says:

    Please quote where I wrote what you write – that Germany bombed Syria. But the refugees also come from Iraq and Libya (none bombed directly by Germany, but other NATO countries). Often, NATO pilots fly under the flag of another NATO nation, like the British pilots fly in Syria under US flag. Germany was likely to provide logistics support for the bombings – ground services etc.

    Then read this DW propaganda piece (written by the friendly CIA or its local journalistic office, the BND) on what has been going on in Ukraine lately: Still think that Germany is totally innocent?

    If I remember correctly, it was Germany and France who were the guarantors of an agreement between Yanukovych and the opposition in Ukraine, of an early election. Yanukovych withdrew police from streets, the next day there was a US coup. The old good cop – bad cop routine, fool he who believes whatever the West signs. Thus, Germany took an active part in bringing down an elected government of Ukraine and replacing it with selected US puppets and Nazis.

    Still believe Germany is innocent? Should I keep going on to Afghanistan and the German bombing of civilians? And on and on?

    Some innocent nation.

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