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Understanding the Outcome of the War for Nagorno-Karabakh
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A lot has happened very rapidly in the past two days and I will begin this analysis by a few bullet points summarizing what just happened (not in any particular order, including chronological):

  • The war which has just ended was a real bloodbath and it has seen more casualties (counting both sides) than what the Soviet Union lost in 10 years of warfare in Afghanistan
  • This war is now over, Russian peacekeepers have already been deployed along the line of contact. So far, neither side has dared to resume hostilities (more about that below).
  • There have been two days of celebrations in Baku where President Aliev has declared that the war was a triumph for Azeri forces and that Pashinian got nothing. He is right.
  • The Azeris are now declaring that they want compensation from Armenia.
  • There are now Turkish forces in Azerbaijan and Russian and Turkish forces have created a joint committee to coordinate actions.
  • Erdogan has insisted that he wanted Turkey to send in peacekeepers, but Putin has categorically rejected this demand: like any other state, Azerbaijan has the undisputed right to invite foreign forces on its territory, but these forces will not have the status and rights of a peacekeeping force.
  • Violent riots have broken out in Erevan where violent mobs have stormed government buildings, beaten officials and sacked the Parliament.
  • Seventeen Armenian opposition parties have declared that they want a committee of national salvation and the resignation of Pashinian.
  • Nobody knows where Pashinian is hiding, but he seems to still be somewhere in Armenia.
  • These mobs also destroyed the Soros offices in Erevan and they are now looking for Pashinian “the traitor” to lynch him.
  • Pashinian has complained on Twitter that his offices were sacked, that a computer, his driver license and, I kid you not, a bottle of perfume (poor perfumed baby!) were stolen.
  • The Russian peacekeeping force will be constituted of subunits of the 15th Independent Motorized Rifle Brigade which itself is part of the 2nd Guards Combined Arms Army of the Central Military District. It will include about 2000 armed soldiers, APCs and IFVs, specialized vehicles (EW, C3I, etc.), drones and air defense systems.
  • Russians peacekeepers will stay deployed in this area for no less than 5 years.
  • Russia will now control both the Nagorno-Karabakh (NK) corridor and the Nakhichevan corridor.

Now let’s look at the position of the parties at the end of this war and compare them.

Armenia: there is no doubt that Armenia is the biggest loser in this war. Pashinian and his gang of russophobic Sorosites has brought a real calamity upon his people. Since he came to power his anti-Russian actions included almost totally eliminating any Armenian participation on the CSTO, he completely ceased any collaboration with Russia (including in the intelligence and security domains), he purged the Armenian military and security forces from all the supposed “pro-Russian” elements, he banned Russian language schools. In contrast, Armenia has an absolutely huge US embassy with about 2000 personnel (as much as the entire Russian peacekeeping force!) and when the Azeris attacked, Pashinin refused to ask Russia for help for a full month. He did ask Trump, Merkel and Macron for help instead. Needless to say, they did exactly nothing once the crisis erupted.

Truth be told, the Armenians had absolutely no other option but to accept the Azeri terms. The Armenians have suffered huge losses while the Azeris have taken Shushi, the key strategic city which controls both the capital of NK Stepanakert and the corridor between NK and Armenia. Had Pashinian not signed, the surrounded Armenians would have been slaughtered by the Azeris (in this war, both sides reported having almost no prisoners. Why? Because almost all were all executed, often after gruesome tortures by both sides). Russian analysts also say that Armenia was simply running out of supplies very fast (a fact also mentioned by Pashinian).

Simply put: Aliev’s plan worked, the blind arrogance of the Armenian leaders, along with their suicidal polices have almost cost Armenia the complete loss of NK and, possibly, even the existence of their own country. With all the best Armenian officers removed (including heroes from the first Karabakh war, which Armenia won), what was left were delusional clowns who promised that Armenia, without any help including without Russian help, could win the war and drive its forces to Baku (yes, they did sound just as delusional as some Ukie leaders).

Turkey: the next big loser in this war is Turkey whose objectives of bringing all Turkic nations under one neo-Ottoman empire have, predictably, crashed. Again. Erdogan is a world class megalomaniac and trouble maker, and he has involved Turkey in wars (or quasi wars) with Syria, Israel, Iraq, Greece, Libya, Iran, Russia and even (to some degree) NATO. And let’s not forget the bloody operations against the Kurds everywhere. He is a bona fide megalomaniac and that makes him very, very dangerous. Russia has intervened militarily in Syria, Libya and now Azerbaijan to deny Turkey its wannabe empire status and each time we saw that Turkey, as a country, simply does not have the resources to try to build an empire, especially since Erdogan simply does not understand that simultaneously opening conflicts on several fronts in a recipe for disaster.

There is also pretty strong likelihood that it was the Turks who shot down the Russian Mi-24 right inside the Armenian air space: their goal was to force Russia to stop seeking a negotiated solution and to impose a continuation of hostilities. Thank God for Aliev’s superb strategic skills which made it possible for him to do something very smart: he took the blame for what he called a tragic mistake and offered all sorts of compensations and excuses. Aliev’s decision to take the blame probably came after he and Putin (who are close friends) had what diplomats call a “frank exchange of views”.

The Turks are making a big deal out of the fact that the Azeris have invited Turkish forces into Azerbaijan. But let’s be honest here: the Azeris and Turks were always close and there was no outcome which could have prevented the Azeris from legally inviting Turkish forces into Azerbaijan. The real issue is what these forces can do. I submit that while we should never discard the toxic potential of any Turkish force anyway, there is little this force will be able to do than to a) monitor the situation and 2) coordinate with the Russians to stay out of each other’s way. But what these forces won’t be able to do is to attack, or even threaten to attack, Armenian and/or Russian forces (see below why).

Russia: Russia is the only true winner of this war. I know, there is a powerful Armenian lobby in the USA, in Europe and in Russia, and they are trying to present their defeat as a defeat for Russia. Frankly, I understand their bitterness and I feel sorry for them, but they are absolutely wrong. Here is why:

First, Russia has now established herself as the sole power in the Caucasus which can bring about peace. 2000 US personnel in Erevan did absolutely nothing for years to really help Armenia, all they did is force suicidal russophobic policies on Armenia, that’s about it. The same amount of Russian soldiers literally brought peace overnight. Here I have to explain a little something about the units which was sent Azerbaijan: 15th Independent Motorized Rifle Brigade (15IMRB).

ORDER IT NOW

The 15IMRB is not a peacekeeping force in the western meaning of the world. This is an elite combat force which specializes in peacekeeping and peacemaking (“coercion to peace” in Russian terminology) missions. It’s personnel is 100% composed of professionals, most of whom have extensive combat experience: they participated in the coercion to peace operation against Georgia in 08.08.08 and in Syria. These are top of the line, well trained, superbly equipped forces who, on top of their own capabilities, can fully count on the support of the Russian forces in Armenia and from the full support of the entire Russian military. Those who say that this force is a lightly armed token force simply do not understand these issues.

The entire theatre of operations of this war is very much inside the (conceptual) under 1000 kilometers from the Russian border which the Russian military wants to be capable of domination escalation should a war break out. To repeat, the Russian military is not organized the way the US military is: the Russian military doctrine is purely defensive, this is not propaganda, and it relies for this defense on its ability to very rapidly deploy high readiness mechanized forces anywhere inside Russia and within about 1000km from the Russian border and the ability to destroy any force entering this zone. Russia also relies on advanced weapons systems capable of unleashing a lot of firepower in defense of its deployed task forces forces. In other words, while the 15IMRB is only a brigade sized expeditionary force, it is trained to hunker down and hold a position until the reinforcements (personnel and/or firepower) are deployed from Russia. You can think of this as something similar to the Russian task force in Syria, only much closer to Russia and, therefore, much easier to support if needed.

Coming back to the shooting down of a Russian Mi-24, this action will not go unnoticed or forgotten, of that you can be sure. The fact that Putin (and the Russian military) don’t act like the US would and immediately initiate reprisals does not mean that the Russians don’t care, have forgotten or are afraid. There is a Jewish proverb which says “a good life is the best revenge”. I would paraphrase this by saying that Putin’s motto could be “an advantageous outcome is the best retaliation”: this is what we saw in Syria and this is what will happen in Azerbaijan.

Another sweet spot for Russia is that she can now (truthfully) declare that color revolutions inevitably result in territorial losses (the Ukraine, Georgie and now Armenia) and political chaos (everywhere).

Next, please look at the following map (in Russian, but that is no problem):

Please look at the two thick blue lines: they are showing corridors between Azerbaijan and the Azeri province of Nakhichevan and the corridor between Armenia and Nagorno-Karabakh. These two corridors are absolutely vital for both of these countries and they will now be under the control of FSB Border Guards (Russian border guards are light, mobile and elite units comparable in terms of training and capabilities to their colleagues from the Airborne Forces. Again, don’t assume that they are anything like the US or EU border or customs officials). They are very tough elite units which are trained to fight a much superior force until reinforcements come in.

What that means in strategic terms is that Russia now has an iron grip on what is a vital strategic artery for both Azerbaijan and Armenia. None of the parties are willing to comment very much on this, no need to humiliate anybody, but those in the know realize what a fantastic pressure capability Putin has just added to Russia in the Caucasus. You can think of these two corridors as a lifeline for both states as long as you also realize that these corridors are also strategic daggers in Russian hands pointed at the vital organs of both states.

The usual Putin-hating choir which has been singing the “Putin lost control of the near abroad” mantra should now be both ashamed of their lack of understanding, and livid at what “Putin” did to their hopes, but that kind of magical thinking won’t change reality on the ground: far from losing anything, Putin secured an immense strategic Russia victory at the cost of 2 dead soldiers, one wounded and one helicopter.

From now on, Russia will have permanent military forces in both Armenia and Azerbaijan. Georgia has been effectively neutered. The Russian Caucasus is mostly peaceful and prosperous, both the Black Sea and the Caspian are de facto “Russian lakes” and the Russian “underbelly” is now much stronger than it ever was before.

Let’s when any western power achieves a similar result 🙂

Conclusion:

This war is now only frozen and, like in Syria, there will be provocations, false flags, setbacks and murdered innocents. But, like in Syria, Putin will always prefer a quiet strategy with minimal losses over one with a lot of threats, grandstanding and instant retaliations. There is also what I call the “Putin use of force rules”: never use force where expected, always use force when least expected and always use force in a way your enemies do not plan for. Still, let’s not see all this in rosy colors, there will be setbacks for sure, Erdogan is angry and he still wants to play a role. Putin, in a typical Russian manner will give him exactly that “a role”, but that role will be minimal and mostly for internal Turkish PR consumption. Erdogan, far from being a new Mehmed The Conqueror and “The Great Eagle”, will go down in history as Erdogan The Loser and the “Defeated Chicken”. Megalomania might be a prerequisite for an empire builder, but that alone is clearly not enough.

What comes next?

Pashinian will be overthrown, that is pretty sure. What matters most for Armenia is who will replace him. Alas, there are anti-Pashinian nationalists out there who are just as russophobic as the Pashinian gang. Furthermore, considering the hysterics taking place in Armenia, there is a real possibility that a new government might annul the ceasefire and demand a “fight to the end”. This could be a major problem, including for the Russian forces in Armenia and the peacekeepers, but it is also likely that by the time the Armenian people really understand that 1) they have been lied to and 2) they have suffered a crushing defeat these calls will eventually be drowned out by more sane voices (including those of the currently jailed pre-2018 leaders).

There is also a huge Armenian immigration in Russia which will hear all the reporting and analyses produced in Russia and will be fully aware of the reality out there. These immigrants represent a huge ressource for Armenia as they are going to be the one who will push for a strong collaboration with Russia which, frankly, Armenia now needs more than anything else. Right now, judging by what pro-Armenian Russian analysts are saying, the Armenians and their supporters are absolutely horrified by this outcome and they are promising that the Turks have now penetrated deeply inside the Russian sphere of influence. To them sane voices reply that this so-called “move” into the Russia sphere of influence will be mostly PR and that it is far better for some Turkish forces to move inside the Russian sphere of influence than for some Russian force to be deployed inside the Turkish sphere of influence. In other words, when these Armenia supporters say that Erdogan has moved deeply inside the Russian sphere of influence, they are also thereby admitting that this is a Russian, not Turkish, sphere of influence. They just don’t realize what they are saying, that’s all.

Frankly, the Armenian diasporas in Russia, the EU and the USA are superbly organized, they have a lot of money, and they currently control the narrative in the EU and the USA (in Russia they tried and miserably failed). Add to this the fact the Aliev was the one who started that war and that he is deeply enmeshed with Erdogan’s Turkey and you will see why the magnitude of the Armenian defeat is systematically underplayed in the western media. That’s fine, let a few months go by and the reality of the situation will eventually convince those currently in denial.

Right now, this is exactly the process which is (violently) taking place in Erevan. But sooner or later, looting mobs will be replaced by some kind of government of national unity and if that government wants to put an end to the horrendous losses and wants to rebuild what is left standing, they will have to call the Kremlin and offer Russia some kind of deal. Needless to day, the immense US embassy, and the hundred of Soros-sponsored “NGOs” will oppose that with all their might. But with the USA itself fighting for survival, the EU in total disarray and the Turks failing at everything they try, that is simply not a viable option.

Russians used to joke that it takes 2 Jews to cheat 1 Armenian, meaning that Armenians are possibly even smarter than Jews (who, in all fairness, are not that smart at all, that is mostly self-serving and self-worshiping propaganda). I tend to share this admiration of the Armenian people: Armenians are an ancient, truly noble and beautiful nation and culture, who deserve to live in peace and security and who have suffered many horrors in their history. They deserve so much more than this CIA/MI6 stooge Pashinian! Right now, the Armenian nation is definitely at a low moment in its history, comparable to the “democratic” 90s in Russia or the current “liberal” horror taking place in the USA. But, as Dostoevsky liked to say, “one should never judge a nation by how low it can sink, but by how high it can soar”.

The best thing for Armenia, objectively, would be to become part of Russia (which Armenia was in its recent past). But that is not going to happen: first, Armenian nationalism is as blind and as obtuse as ever and, furthermore, Russia would never accept Armenia into the Russian Federation, and why would she? Armenia has exactly nothing to offer Russia, except a difficult to protect territory with potentially dangerous neighbors. No, Russia never lost Armenia – it was Armenia which lost Russia. Now the most the Kremlin will offer to Armenia is 1) protection against all neighbors and 2) economic help.

As for the rest, let’s see if the next Armenian government re-joins the CSTO not only in words (as was the case for the past couple of years), but in actions (like resume intel exchanges, military collaboration, joint security operations, etc.). That would be a great first step for Armenia.

 
• Category: Foreign Policy • Tags: Armenia, Azerbaijan, George Soros, Russia 
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  1. Lot says:

    That’s a lot of cope trying to hide a very basic fact: Islamic aggression captured ancient Christian lands in Russia backyard.

  2. anon[364] • Disclaimer says:

    First, of course, some Jewy “let’s you and him fight” from Lot: “That’s a lot of cope trying to hide a very basic fact: Islamic aggression captured ancient Christian lands in Russia backyard.”

    And pacific resolution of disputes has ended use of force in compliance with UN Charter Article 2§4 and Chapter 8. Primitive Izzies hate that shit, all they ever want to do is genocide the goyim, or better, egg them on.

    • Agree: Stan
    • Replies: @Commentator Mike
  3. Anon[216] • Disclaimer says:

    Azeravbaizan has shown grace and magnanimity. Armenia could have offered a face saving solution to Azeri when it was in that powerful position.
    Armenia never had any legal claim to the NK proper let alone 20% it came to occupy .

    The anti-Muslim rhetoric from Europe expressed through anti -Turk and anti- Azeribaizan options show the naked hatred they have against Muslim.

    • Replies: @joe2.5
    , @retard69
    , @Dany
  4. anonymous[400] • Disclaimer says:

    It’s very hard not to view this as a clash of civilizations and of ethnicities/races. No one on this side of the line could have sympathy for asiatic, Islamic Turks who are alien. They also have a notoriously murderous history which makes them unlikable. Indeed, all nations with any historical contact with them have a loathing for them. So, in all this analysis of who gets what it’s hard to be coldly rational as though we’re dealing with just another business deal. We take sides and it’s only natural to be sympathetic to the Armenians by reflex. And perhaps that’s the way it should be.

  5. A perfect example of Russian nationalist delusional thinking. A homosexual tranny African army conquers Moscow and ethnically cleanses all Russians from Smolensk to the Urals and somehow they will spin it as being an example of Russia’s skills in 15 dimensional chess.

  6. joe2.5 says:
    @Anon

    “Armenia never had any legal claim to the NK proper…”

    Except, of course, that Karabagh is not occupied by Armenia but by its ancestral inhabitants. Who are exercising their right to self-determination, ie determining the fate of lands they have inhabited since times untold, partitioned/allocated in the late 20s to the ancestral enemy, the Turks of Azerbaijan, under pressure from nationalist Turkey. Admittedly with excesses and Armenian atrocities outside Karabagh-Artsakh, but this is not relevant to the question.

  7. Another sweet spot for Russia is that she can now (truthfully) declare that color revolutions inevitably result in territorial losses (the Ukraine, Georgie and now Armenia) and political chaos (everywhere).

    Excellent observation and I hope others take note. Dance with the Devil, expect to get burned.

    Furthermore, considering the hysterics taking place in Armenia, there is a real possibility that a new government might annul the ceasefire and demand a “fight to the end”.

    In that case they’re real lunatics. Fight with what and with whom? They would have lost all of NK if not for Russia’s rapid intervention.

    Russians used to joke that it takes 2 Jews to cheat 1 Armenian

    And perhaps there were, 2 or more Jews working on those Armenians.

  8. @Lot

    Islamic aggression captured ancient Christian lands in Russia backyard.

    LOL. And Israel helped the Islamic aggression in this instance.

  9. @anon

    Lot must be IDF’s 24 hour Unz Review monitoring unit.

  10. Ghali says:

    I am not sure why the Saker use the above maps . There are English versions of the same maps. it makes reading easier.

    • Replies: @republic
  11. Wielgus says:

    I am skeptical of the “Sorosian” narrative, certainly in relation to Armenia/Nagornyy Karabakh. Soros is allegedly this Dr Evil who masterminds régime change at the behest of powerful forces in Washington/the EU, but in fact the Armenians were left to it and may have been a finger’s breadth away from annihilation. If this is George Soros in action, he is remarkably feeble.

  12. Thanks to The Saker for the summary.

    Hopes and prayers for peace, and bravo Russia!

  13. A.R. says:
    @anonymous

    By reflex? Basically admitting that objectivity is not desirable…

  14. retard69 says:
    @Anon

    This just in, violent Islamophobia from native Europeans on the rise! Only 500,000 instead of the usual 2,000,000 marched in support of Mohammedians after the recent justified French beheadings of peace! 3 Europeans said something mean online about muslims, we need new hate speech laws!

  15. anon[319] • Disclaimer says:

    How is turkey a loser in this? they got “peacekeepers” on the ground where there were non previously, especially of note is that its in russias back yard with the chechen, dagi, and ingush not far away who could be riled up and act as a 5th column within russia (their self identity is closer to the turks). your off hand dismissal of “nothing could be done to prevent inviting them is questionable”, after all isn’t that what soft power is for? there are ways countries “punish” other countries short of war, not to mention, if putin and aliyev are such good friends why did putin allow this to happen? the way i see it is armenia played themselves by distancing themselves from russia so it was hard for russia to support a regime that wanted nothing to do with them, that is why russia supplied lukewarm support (can’t blame them on this regard). on the other hand azerbaijan had full backing from turkey, i understand that russia has good ties with azerbaijan but what did they get in return? turkish forces in the caucuses. the fence sitting russia was doing backfired in a way… trying to not lose relations with azerbaijan may have cost russia dearly. makes me wonder if it was one of those situations choosing a side wld have been better, but then again this hearkens back to when russia helped serbia and ww1 broke out and they lost an empire theres no clear cut answer i guess; getting back to the issue though, it boils down to two ineffectual allies if you can call them that in russia and armenia going up against a solid block in azerbaijan and turkey. anyways hope u enjoyed my ramblings pce

    • Agree: Philip Owen
    • Replies: @padre
    , @Bill
    , @AnonFromTN
  16. @anonymous

    It’s very hard not to view this as a clash of civilizations

    Only difficult for those who are already hellbent on shoe-horning every conflict into narrow preconceived notions. Tired of christcucks.

    Have you seen the scenes out of Baku? The women of every country is the most telling sign, because men tend to dress quite similarily everywhere. The women of Azerbaijan were dancing on their own, without jeers or harassment from the manoids. Almost nobody wore a hijab and all of them were dressed in tight jeans. You’d mistake them for Italian or Spanish girls.

    Azerbaijan is a moderate Shia country. This isn’t a religious clash or a civilisational clash. The two big winners will be Russia (which now has a craven Armenia on its doorstep) and Israel (weapon sales will get a boost from this PR victory and their tacit alliance with the Azeris in order to strike Iran has only gotten stronger).

    • Replies: @anon
    , @L.K
  17. roonaldo says:

    U.S. security aid to Azerbaijan jumped to $58 million in 2018 and was $42 million in 2019, and appears to have been geared to security measures along the Caspian Sea and Iranian border. I suppose U.S. paranoia over Iran motivated it. But, hey, it included $80,000 for human rights! U.S. aid to Armenia, according to the article I was reading, was about $25 million in 2017 and was down to about $4 million in 2019. Maybe Soros money was supposed to make up for it, who knows.

    At a New Hampshire rally on Oct. 26, Trump said the Armenians are incredible people, “fight like hell,” and that solving the conflict “is an easy one,” by which he must have meant “Let Putin do it.”

    Back on Oct. 14, Biden warned Turkey and Iran about helping Azerbaijan, which no doubt scared the heck out of ’em, knowing how he had manhandled “Corn Pop.” Sniffer Joe had offered Pashinian to hide with him in the basement until finding out his perfume had been stolen.

    Hopefully the warring factions can resolve this peacefully and send the U.S. packing.

    • Replies: @Mikhail
  18. He did ask Trump, Merkel and Macron for help instead. Needless to say, they did exactly nothing once the crisis erupted.

    Of course not. The US takes the side of Moslems against all but their Israeli masters. Let’s review the history: Egyptians over Britain and France, Algerians over France, Turkey over Russia, Turkey over Greece, Turkey over Cyprus, Turkey over Armenia, Azerbaijan over Armenia, the Bengalis over the Burmese, Pakistan over India, the Afghan savages over the Russians, the Chechen savages over the Russians, the Albanian Moslems over the Serbs, the Bosnian Moslems over the Serbs, the Bosnian Moslems over the Croats, the Moslem Brotherhood over Coptic Christians, Moslem northerners over Christian southerners in Nigeria, Moslem northerners over Christian southerners in the Ivory Coast, jihadists over the secular Syrian government, Saudi Arabia over the secular Iraq of Saddam Hussein, the Uyghur over the Chinese, and, my personal favorite, Indonesian genocidaires over the defenseless East Timorese. Most likely I’m neglecting quite a few instances where the champions of “human rights” intervened on behalf of Moslem savagery. Let’s not forget, though, that the US pushes mass immigration of Moslems savages into every Christian country and has favored Moslem rapefugees, such as the Boston Bombers, over legitimate refugeees. The Trump administration was the exception and that’s part of the reason why it’s so hated by the Deep State.

    Some of this behavior might be explained by bribes, such as $500,000 from Turkey to convicted boy lover Dennis Hastert, who pulled support for recognition of the Armenian Genocide at the last minute and whom the Deep State had installed as speaker of the house precisely because his disgusting proclivities made him easy to control. But a lot of it is a consequence of the fact the US is a fundamentally liberal country and liberalism is accurately defined as taking the side of evil, falsehood, ugliness, and filth on all issues, all the way, all the time.

  19. Gordo says:

    Next, please look at the following map (in Russian, but that is no problem):

    For you dude, I would have appreciated an English version, even home made.

  20. neutral says:

    Russians used to joke that it takes 2 Jews to cheat 1 Armenian

    If this was true then explain how Armenia keeps losing land, how Israel can get away with genocide and that there is no AIPAC equivalent for Armenians. The reality is that Armenian are total idiots, they happily invited in the international jew Soros and they were killed by Israeli made weapons. Something tells me they will continue with their idiocy and continue trusting the jew.

  21. Anonymous[374] • Disclaimer says:

    This conflict must cause great confusion for the likes of “The Saker”, two non-Anglo groups slaughtering each other and not an Anglo in sight to blame for it.

    The best he can do is try and put the name “Soros” in his article a few times, but that’s a poor compromise really considering Soros is not an Anglo in any way. This conflict shows that the word is going to be an even more brutal and cruel place as it moves away from Anglo hegemony. Other groups don’t have the guilt complex Anglos have.

    • Replies: @Jake
    , @Seraphim
  22. eggplant says:

    Don’t forget the jews, who have to suck up to Azeris since it is their only land border access to Iran.
    They are happy to throw Christian Armenia under the bus.
    Never trust them.

    • Replies: @Commentator Mike
  23. @Wielgus

    There are photos of Pashinian and Soros embracing each other. No one is doubting that Soros has brought him about. This is a well established fact.

    • Replies: @Wielgus
    , @Yevardian
  24. TheIdiot says:

    A quick look at the historical map of Caucasus will show that

    1. Turkey is a clear winner and expanded beyond the Ottoman times in this region
    2. Russia is the real loser
    3. The US Embassy and NGOs in Yerevan have achieved more than they planned for
    (and the same process is happening along the entire perimeter of remaining Russia)
    4. The Saker is doing what the Russian MSM have been doing for the last 30 years:

    cover up the still ongoing sell-off of Russia by the Gorbachev-Eltzyn-Putin brigade

    https://nzhistory.govt.nz/media/photo/map-russian-empire-1914

    • Troll: Derer
  25. Jake says:
    @Lot

    Here is the most important sentence in the article: 2000 US personnel in Erevan did absolutely nothing for years to really help Armenia, all they did is force suicidal russophobic policies on Armenia, that’s about it.

    What has happened is because the Anglo-Zionist foreign policy, working hand in glove with anti-Christ and anti-Christendom NGOs (all things Soros, for example), always backs Moslems until the Moslem desires bump into Jews.

    That means that when you ally with, or just trust, the US or any NGOs not opposed by the established Anglo-Zionist foreign policy cadre, you are choosing to be manipulated and culturally polluted unto death.

    The Ukrainians and Poles are excellent examples. Armenians are too.

    • Agree: GMC, Commentator Mike, Aedib
  26. @Lot

    Frankly- Bolsheviks of the 20’s are guilty of this. There should have been a population transfer between Nakhichevan & Nagorno Karabakh. Then, there would have been an ethnic-territorial continuity & no problems afterwards.

    • Agree: Aedib, 4Dchessmaster
    • Replies: @KA
  27. Jake says:
    @Anonymous

    Now that’s a good one. The sun never set on the British Empire, Anglo-Zionist Empire Part 1, because the Anglos opposed warring and brought only peace and justice to all. It was a great miracle that a people acquired so much, more than any empire ever, being so peaceful.

    And to think that they did without being beholden to Jewish financiers, without doing any harm to white Christian cultures and peoples.

    WASP Empire always has been Anglo-Zionist Empire, back to archetypal WASP Oliver Cromwell, because Anglo-Saxon Puritanism was a Judaizing heresy, and Judaizing heresy must produce pro-Jewish, and anti-Christendom, culture.

    • Replies: @Philip Owen
  28. MLK says:

    Interestingly, neither The Saker nor with few exceptions the comments before this one even mention the USG, much less the IS election context.

    It isn’t a mystery why this conflict, which broke out coterminous with the US election, was essentially ignored in the US. In stark contrast to this:

    https://www.c-span.org/video/?c4624201/user-clip-hillary-clinton-answers-aleppo-question

    The Democrats and their Allied Media knew that Trump owned the foreign policy space despite their fake polls and even faker fibbing. The only thing worse for them than psychopath Hillary teeing up more death and destruction was Biden mumbling about what his handlers had in mind if he became president.

    https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=6DXDU48RHLU

    Even as it’s still unclear who will take the oath on January 20th, we can read between the lines of how this has played out so far, revealing what has changed and what hasn’t with a real POTUS still sitting in the Oval Office.

    Erdogan is the big loser here, most especially if Trump remains POTUS. While I haven’t closely followed this throughout, Turkey was the troublemaker, with every other party treading lightly with the American election.

    You’ll note that the Democrats and their Allied Media have waved goodbye to “Politics stops at the water’s edge.” Every country on earth knows that when the Democrats hold the presidency every element of the American national interest is for sale or a gift from highly placed moles (e.g. Brennan).

    Moreover, the Democrat/Iranian attempted replay in Bagdad of the Iranian Hostage Crisis at the beginning of the year that sank Carter’s reelection in 1980, was only one of myriad attempts by the Democrats in league with foreign interests to take down Trump by any means necessary. There have been so many over the last four years I stopped counting.

  29. Wielgus says:
    @Gorgeous George

    Quite possibly. My point is that a Sorosian project has been wounded, perhaps fatally and the usual suspects either said or did nothing or were even on the other side – for example Israel arming the Azerbaijanis. Doesn’t say much about the all-embracing, demonic power of Soros.

  30. Mikhail says: • Website
    @roonaldo

    Back on Oct. 14, Biden warned Turkey and Iran about helping Azerbaijan, which no doubt scared the heck out of ’em, knowing how he had manhandled “Corn Pop.” Sniffer Joe had offered Pashinian to hide with him in the basement until finding out his perfume had been stolen.

    Not exactly according to this overview:

    https://www.al-monitor.com/pulse/originals/2020/10/biden-azerbaijan-armenia-turkey-nagorno-karabakh-statement.html

    As reported in that instance, Biden wasn’t critical of Israel or (for that matter) Russia and Iran.

    On the other hand, AEI neocon Michael Rubin has been quite critical of Israeli support for Azerbaijan.

    • Thanks: roonaldo
  31. I refuse to care about what happens in the Caucasus.

  32. Armenian-American metal band System of a Down has released their first new material in over a decade to commemorate the Nagorno-Karabakh conflict.

    • Thanks: Agent76
  33. TRM says:
    @Lot

    So please tell us exactly what part of the analysis is wrong? LOL.
    Muslims served with honour and distinction in the old pre-Bolshevik era and have done so again (see Chechnya).

  34. neutral says:
    @Wielgus

    Soros provides ample funding to politicians he likes. This means there are very many susceptible places in the world to his money. Armenia is just one example, he bought a politician who in turn was expected to give the middle finger to Russia. Pashinian obliged, it was he that saw Soros as some kind of all powerful Dr Evil that could replace the previous Russian protections. Soros himself couldn’t care less what happened to Armenia, as long as it became another “open society” anti Russian state, that is a success for him.

  35. @Agathoklis

    Maybe the Russians let this happen to create the conditions necessary for a regime change in Armenia? One that will sweep away the pro-Western government and bring in a pro-Russian one?

    • Replies: @Carlo
  36. anon[139] • Disclaimer says:
    @Thulean Friend

    so what will the Iranians do as they wait for the Israeli strike from the Azeris territory?

    wont they even point a powerful missile, or 200 plus, at Azerbaijan, a handful of which are bound to get through that would pulverize and splatter a great deal of the 10 million Azeris all over their land?

    do the Azeris know this? are they stupid to the extent that they would sacrifice their people for the Jews? Iran is bound to have more than enough to make minced meat of the Azeris!

    I mean the Azeris are right there next to Iran. they cant escape, they cant run and hide. what in the hell will they allow the Israelis to put into their country, while maintaining their independence and safety?

    interesting

    I will be watching this with interest..to see if the the Azeris become an Israeli hand maide and stooge, and sacrifice on their Iranian border.

    • Replies: @GMC
    , @Showmethereal
  37. anon[166] • Disclaimer says:
    @anonymous

    It seems Armenians are doing just that in Yerevan. Can you gather some European Christian non-Turks to join ? Armenian strong reflex would be buttressed by your thoughtful reflex .

  38. KA says:
    @Bardon Kaldian

    It can still be done .No point to force people live under any administration when they don’t want to be for million reason . This hostility and the use of it by foreigners will disappear eventually.

    Europe /USA could have forced both after 1994 .Russia would have joined Turkey was not in any position to alter the balance back then Iran also would have loved a solution .

    I think in 1991-1992 ,newly independent republic -Azerbaijan was a victim of color revolution carried by Jihadi-Al Quiada bought by bus load from outside . The first president was ousted That president was more open to settling the festering conflicts amicably .

    Europe has repeatedly created problem for African and ME countries post WW2 .Then have wondered why there are blowbacks .

  39. Bill says:
    @Wielgus

    What do you think Soros’s goals are? If nation-wrecking is among them, he seems to be doing fine.

    • Replies: @Wielgus
  40. Bill says:
    @anon

    if putin and aliyev are such good friends why did putin allow this to happen?

    What’s “this?” Pashinyan out of power seems like something Putin positively wanted to happen.

    • Agree: zimriel
  41. Hossein says:
    @Lot

    Nonsense. so why did the Persian regime that claims to be “Islamic” supported the Armenians? The Persians, fearing the nationalism of their own Turkish population that numbers close to 20 million, were supplying Yerevan with weapons and ammunitions before and during this latest conflict. That proves that this war was not about religion and rather ethnic and territorial.
    The Turkish Azerbayjanis want a united country and their next target is the other part of Azerbayjan that they say has been occupied and colonized by the Persians. The huge demonstrations in Tabriz and other cities shook the Persian regime to its core.
    Round 2 is going to be even worse . The Persian Mullas and their minions are shitting in their trousers for if their Turkish population rise up and call for independence from Persian control the entire region will explode and the consequences would be horrific.

  42. Carlo says:
    @The Spirit of Enoch Powell

    Exactly. This war was carefully prepared and planned by the Azeris and Turks, and one thing they surely did was to have tacit approval from Russia; the 2018 regime change in Armenia gave them the perfect opportunity to get the go ahead from Putin.

  43. Reading the comments here I see most everyone supports a clash of nations, civilizations or religions. Always Muslims bad guys and Christians good guys, their actions aside. Grow up and study history better. The Good, the Bad and the Ugly are everywhere.

    Why not focus on how people can live peacefully together. Azeris and Armenians lived and worked together for hundreds of years.

    Supra Ethno-religious-nationalism is a self-destructive ideology leading to a dead end.

    Armenia after ethnic cleansing NK of Azeris, should have sought a peaceful / diplomatic solution when the cards were in its hand.

    Unfortunately, Armenian zealotry and lust for past glories and ancestral lands kept them from being realistic and smart. leading to a war which they could not win. Fortunately for them the Russ jumped in just in time, who will eventually lead to dividing the NK between the 2 parties. Something the West could and should have done these past 15 years.

    The reviewers here might consider that there has been enough bloodshed and day dreaming of national war glory to last a very long time. Now is the time to focus on how to resolve real issues that affect[people in their f day to day lives on both sides of the divide.

    As for Sultan Erdogan, he is like a lost boy following the fireworks to every corner, only to leave empty handed.

    • Agree: Druid55, Showmethereal
  44. Soros has an office in Yerevan? You know that Jew hates Armenian Christians with a passion… and undoubtedly, he favors the Azeris Muslims.

    • Disagree: Lot
  45. Agent76 says:

    Nov 11, 2020 Azerbaijan-Armenia war ends. Russia takes full control of Caucasus

    The army said to stop’: Armenian PM Pashinyan claims controversial agreement with Baku was encouraged by his military.

  46. @TheIdiot

    Regarding number 3, what did they plan for?

  47. Wielgus says:
    @Bill

    Colour revolutions that further US/EU/NWO goals. Maidan for example, which removed Russian influence from most of Ukraine, although of course there was a riposte from Russia in the case of Crimea and the Donbass. Also he presumably wants to remain wealthy and increase his wealth. I don’t see either goal being served in Armenia/Karabakh and if anything it exposes Soros as a toxic brand.
    But essentially nobody wanted to touch this with a bargepole, except Turkey and Israel and they backed the other side. Kind of strange for a colour revolution – when they happen and get in trouble, the babies being taken off ventilators/Viagra being issued to troops so they can rape etc. stories start coursing through the MSM. This did not happen here. Basically Azerbaijan, heavily backed by Turkey, was allowed to get on with it until Russia came up with a peace-keeping force at the 11th hour.

  48. Jimmy1969 says:

    No one cares about this.

    • Disagree: Radicalcenter
  49. GMC says:
    @anon

    I’m no Saker, he’s pretty intelligent about the situations here – but I live Russia and Crimea and there are a lot of Azerbaijani working in Crimea and Southern Russia – construction, market place and produce , etc. they are part of the old Soviet bloc and they are no problem . Maybe that’s why Putin has a good relationship with the Azerbaijanis. Iranians too visit Russia and they are always welcome – good people – I’ve been on excursions with them in a group – family orientated strong. It’s a whole different way of culture, thinking and societal interactions here. And the Russian jews I know and I have two good friends – and my wife has good friends in Israel and visits them – it’s not the Zionist crowd , it’s the Russian/Crimea crowd – whether you are Russian, Ukrainian, Tatar, Turk, Moldovan, Belarusian, Georgian – it’s all cool . I don’t think the West has the real perception of the Eastern people – if you have been to Asia, you saw a different culture – an interesting, not quite able to understand one – same with EurAsia. Spacibo.

    • Thanks: Showmethereal
    • Replies: @Mikhail
  50. BlueB says:
    @Hossein

    Your comment is that of a teen pumped up with too much male testosterone.

    Your ignorance is visible and your lack of knowledge regarding history and geopolitics is amusing.

    There are Turks, Kurds, Arabs, etc citizens with loyalty to the Iranian nations many part of the military, border guards and the resistance. They will fight the fake Azerbaijan Republic and the Turks if any foolish act is made on the ground.

    The supreme leader of Iran, Sayid Ali Khamenei is Azari himself, born in Tabriz. He has made it very clear, no change will be made to the existing borders.

    The “mass protests” you are referring to, was a handful of elderly people in Tabriz and other location that was not directed at the Iranian nation, but only in support for the people of Azerbaijan. It ended in an hour and never happened again.

    Turks are famous for making a lot of noise, but that’s just about it. Turks are also well known for killing each other for the most stupid of reasons. The same goes for the Kurds.

    Iran has fought the US regime and its thousands of terrorist groups along its borders for over 20 years with the help of her Kurdish, Turkish, Arab, and etc. citizens that love their mother country “Iran” and will die for it.

    Iran now has a strong political foot hold inside Iraq, Afghanistan, Syria, Lebanon, and Yemen. With resistance forces inside these countries and across Asia and beyond. There is also resistance, loyal to Iran inside the fake Azerbaijan Republic.

    So, before you run your mouth about the Iranian nation helping Armenia, and get all bent out of shape, remember this, Iran will help any group of people in need of protection, it doesn’t matter if they are Muslim, Christian, or have no religion at all. The supreme leader has also stated, by the grace of God we have surpass the limitation of religion.

    With the economy of Turkey in free fall, the recent earthquake, and the tsunami, the “Turkish regime” will only be dreaming of an Ottoman Empire.

    This negotiation brokered by Russia, was in coordination with Iran. Iran and Russia will never allow any changes to borders of countries in the region. Just like Iran stop the US regime from dividing Iraq and with the help of the Russians to stop divide of Syria. Today thanks to the Iranian nation and Russia these illegal US invasion is turned into a stalemate. And Turkey did get its dreaming of occupying Syria, it has left the Idlib region looking for trouble somewhere else.

    You should explain why the fake Azerbaijan Regime has been in bed with the Zionist apartheid entity that has the blood of millions of Muslims, Christians and Jews on its hands? Why does the fake Azerbaijan regime buy Zionist weapons and murders its people and neighbors? Why does the fake Azerbaijan regime doesn’t allow Shia Muslims to commemorate Ashura, attacking and arresting Shia Muslims? And why does the fake Azerbaijan regime allow ISIS Terrorist on its territory?

    You should know that their is a long chess game being played and the Iranian nation is know for being some of the best chess players around.

    In the invasion of Armenia by the fake Azerbaijani regime which was goaded by the Turkish regime, it is clear that Russia got the last laugh. Now for the next five years Russia soldiers will be occupying Azerbaijan and monitoring ever move. And Iran got what it wanted someone else, “Russia” doing the work for it.

    • Agree: Frankie P
    • Replies: @Commentator Mike
    , @Blade
  51. Agent76 says:

    Nov 9, 2020 Armenian Defense Collapsed In Central Nagorno-Karabakh. Shusha Is In Hands Of Azerbaijan

    The Armenian defense in the central part of the Nagorno-Karabakh region is in a deep crisis. Intense clashes in the areas of Martuni and Shusha were ongoing for the entire last week.

  52. This article is a help as I have not kept up on this situation. Anything that damages Soros is a blessing.
    It is a useful, interesting article. I have read a lot on what the Turks did to the Armenians.

    I would bet that 90% of Americans are ignorant about everything. They just hold smart phones like security blankets and watch moronic sitcoms, and continue to support pro sports. It seems that the majority of owners don’t give a damn about average America except to get the suckers to spend a lot of money to watch spoiled athletes.

    In my travels I met Russians and Ukranians who once served in the Russian military and they knew more about world politics and American history than the majority of Americans. I was amazed to learn how much they were taught about world politics and history in their high schools. I have met American suburban youth in their 20s and 30s who are totally ignorant of geography and history.
    I am in my 70s.

  53. Cato says:

    Saker: thanks for an enlightening analysis. I like the saying “It takes 2 Jews to outwit an Armenian”, but it must have been coined by an Armenian who disliked Jews–the people of Hayastan are not notably intelligent (though many in the diaspora are).

  54. neutral says:
    @Lost American

    I would bet that 90% of Americans are ignorant about everything

    That is not the main problem. The real problem is that you have heads of intelligence agencies/national security advisors/supposedly “respectable” think tanks that see the world as simplistic comic book stories. Beyond that you have an elite that has adopted a fanatical woke cult as their core ideology. These people are a deadly mix of ignorant, fanatical and powerful, this is a threat for the entire world, and I only see this threat getting worse with time, sadly the 90% are too clueless to stop them.

    • Replies: @Lost American
  55. Who cares about Kardashiland? If Armenia wants to side with Soros and Globo-Homo against Russia, I’m all for Muslims kicking Kardashis in the arse.

  56. There is also pretty strong likelihood that it was the Turks who shot down the Russian Mi-24 right inside the Armenian air space: their goal was to force Russia to stop seeking a negotiated solution and to impose a continuation of hostilities.

    It is quite possible that the Turks shot down the helicopter but although Erdogan may be a megalomaniac I doubt that he personally sanctioned this. The shooting of the chopper over Armenian airspace could have activated CSTO and brought about not just a continuation of hostilities but raised them to a completely different level involving death and destruction on Turkish soil itself if indeed the Turks were responsible. And Aliev definitely didn’t approve this action. It is most likely that it was done by a rogue officer in the pay of NATO/CIA/etc. as only Western elites would like to see this conflict spread further and bring Russia into direct conflict with Turkey.

    • Agree: Druid55
  57. @eggplant

    Do you really think that Israel would launch a direct attack on Iran from Azerbaijan? They prefer to use US and NATO for that. And if they did that then Azerbaijan would become a target for Iranians. Do Azeris really want that?

    • Replies: @eggplant
  58. @BlueB

    Welcome to the Unz Review comments section BlueB. Hope you continue contributing in the future.

    • Agree: Radicalcenter
  59. @Lot

    That’s a lot of cope trying to hide a very basic fact: Islamic aggression captured ancient Christian lands in Russia backyard.

    No, globo-homo lands that have been Sorosized.

    • Agree: Aedib
    • Replies: @Lot
    , @AB_Anonymous
  60. @anonymous

    It’s very hard not to view this as a clash of civilizations and of ethnicities/races. No one on this side of the line could have sympathy for asiatic, Islamic Turks who are alien.

    While Turks have distant origins in Asia, they are mostly Caucasian. It’s like Hungarians. They do have some Asiatic roots but are mostly white/European.

    Racially, Armenians are closer to swarthy Turks than to Western Europeans. The ONLY reason they are seen as part of ‘West’ is their religion. But that’s misleading. Are Arab and North African Christians part of the ‘West’?

    Also, Christianity is dead. Among ‘mainline’, it’s mostly globo-homo. Among Evangelicals, it’s mostly ‘muh Israel’ even though Jews despise them. Among Orthodox, it’s just a lot of church-building, a museum religion, like in Russia. As for Catholicism, it is finally dead with the globo-homo pope.

    So, this isn’t about Muslim Azeris vs Christian Armenians. It’s about Azeris vs globo-homo Armenians who should now be called Kardashis. Indeed, Armenia almost deserves to be wiped off the map for having given us the Kardashians.

    Whatever happened to Armenia that gave us COLOR OF POMEGRANATES? They are now into the color revolutions of fruitcakes.

    • LOL: Thulean Friend
    • Troll: Lot
    • Replies: @4Dchessmaster
  61. Anonymous[139] • Disclaimer says:

    Quite possibly. My point is that a Sorosian project has been wounded, perhaps fatally and the usual suspects either said or did nothing or were even on the other side – for example Israel arming the Azerbaijanis. Doesn’t say much about the all-embracing, demonic power of Soros.

    ‘Soros’ is a meme as well as the man. Like the ‘Rothchilds’, a meme for Jewish financial domination.

    So, there is more to ‘Soros’ than Soros the man himself. It means the extensive network of Jewish Supremacist agenda around the world. Soros is merely one player in ‘Sorosism’.

    Also, Jews like to play both sides. It’s like Neocons manipulate the GOP while ‘liberal Zionists’ control the Democrats. Jews engineered it so that, whichever side wins, Jews win and get their way.

    And the same seems to be the case here. Jews gained foothold in Armenia and steered it toward globo-homo. But Jews also aided the Azeris against a weakened Armenia. In the end, it doesn’t matter which side is up and which side is down. Jews hedged their bets with involvement in both sides, and Jewish Power gains no matter which side does well.

    It’s like Netanyahu was happy with Trump the Zionist dog and is now happy with Biden the Zionist dog.

    Jews never form deep alliances with goyim. They just shake hands with everyone to play them.

    • Replies: @Wielgus
    , @Wielgus
  62. Wielgus says:
    @Anonymous

    In the Scottish Highlands, there was a tradition in wartime where if the clan chief picked one side, one or more of his sons would fight on the other, and this was accepted. The reason? If you were on the losing side, your goods and lands were forfeit. It was called attainder in England but I don’t know the Scottish term. However, the son or sons on the winning side would have a good claim to the forfeited property or could expect some other form of compensation. So whatever the outcome not all would be lost. This behaviour did get Scottish clansmen a reputation for perfidy (I am talking of real history, not romanticism) but it was certainly pragmatic. Trying to win whoever wins is of course practised by others.

  63. Great article, great analysis!

  64. Derer says:

    In their pathological fear of Russia the Bri-Mrican empire support of Islam in Bosnia and Kosovo against a Christian country is a repeated in Caucasus against Armenians. When will European morons wake up and realize that Bri-Mrican is a proven enemy to Europe and not an ally. NATO is a phony comfortable “bed” for sleeping with an enemy. Turkey, to this date never acknowledged the first Armenian Christians genocide, and now have appetite for another one.

  65. Lot says:
    @Priss Factor

    More cope. Islam grows and expands around Russia again.

    Israel, Burma, Thailand, Greece, Hungary all stand up and fight Islamic Expansion. Russia abandons an ancient ally because of petty political issues with its internal government.

    “But the peacekeepers are Russian!!!” say the Russian Decline Cope & Excuses Squad. Sorry, staffing border patrol is not actually a victory.

    “ globo-homo lands that have been Sorosized.”

    Armenia has a TFR of 1.8 compared to 1.5 for ethnic Russians in Russia. Both bad, but after decades of Putin, which one indicates a globohomo decadence?

  66. L.K says:
    @Thulean Friend

    Only difficult for those who are already hellbent on shoe-horning every conflict into narrow preconceived notions. Tired of christcucks.

    Azerbaijan is a moderate Shia country. This isn’t a religious clash or a civilisational clash.

    EXACTLY.
    These types of comments are to be expected around here though…
    As Ron Unz himself admitted recently, the level of the comments at Unz webzine is generally atrocious.
    Trolls, some of them apparently professional, though I cannot believe little Zionist activist “Lot” is getting paid, as his efforts are so pathetic, ignorant people who never try to study anything in depth, bigots, chauvinist activists and so on and so forth, infest the comment section at Unz, making it largely worthless.
    As Unz said, there are some real gems if one mines them, but it is quite a bit of work…
    Price to pay for having a very lightly moderated forum.

    • Agree: Zimriel
  67. Aedib says:
    @Lot

    Don’t ask Russians to fight the war Sorosized Armenians were unwilling and unable to fight. This lost war will be the great awakening for many real Armenians.

  68. Aedib says:

    By the way Pashinyan looks to be more enthusiastic in killing Armenians in opposition to him than Turkish backed Islamists in Karabakh. He claimed:

    “We will not allow representatives of the former government to create chaos in the country. We have a future. We must draw conclusions and understand the mistakes.”

  69. @Lot

    More cope. Islam grows and expands around Russia again.

    I’m not religious. I don’t much care for Christianity, now a dead religion.

    What matters is race. If Islam is the new religion for white folks, it might be a good thing.

    Christianity couldn’t say NO to Jewish Globo-Homo. It is a cuck religion. It is dead.

  70. Zimriel says:
    @Lot

    I don’t think anyone is disputing that the “Muslim” side aggressed on the Christians. Where The Saker is arguing is: even if we assume Aliev was the aggressor and Ergodan his goad, Armenia didn’t have to lose. But, she did lose. So why did she lose and how can she patch things up so she doesn’t flat-out die, in future?
    EDIT: and as noted, as Muslims, Azeris are hardly Saudis.

  71. removal of the Soros/CIA regime in Armenia is alone

    a large victory for Russia.

    • Agree: Aedib
  72. Aedib says:

    Throughout this losing phase of the war, Armenia tried a very questionable bid at “multipolarity” looking to get help from any direction, all the while not attempting to restore its relations with Moscow.
    Essentially, no significant forces, equipment or hardware were actually deployed from Armenia to fight in Nagorno-Karabakh. Whatever forces were present in Karabakh fought, with limited support from “mainland Armenia.” Also, officially,

    Armenia did not send any of its regular troops to fight. What was there instead of that? Livestreams of Nikol Pashinyan in Facebook and multiple PR statements

    claiming victorious counter-attacks by Armenian forces.

    The lack of any real action was covered by a very wide and loud media campaign calling for other countries to recognize Artsakh as an independent country, hoping that it would happen and that the Armenian government would not need to do anything on its own. Ironically, while Armenia was demanding the world recognize Artsakh as an independent state, it itself as a state made zero steps in this direction. These factors led to Armenia ultimately losing the war.

  73. R2b says:

    Well, its quite obvious.
    If you leave Christianity, as many of you here have, then there is a spiritual void, that has to be filled.
    Its not difficult to understand, but if you get materialistic or numb to islam, and think some philosophy will help you out, youre gonna have a problem.
    You have got to to serve someone.
    And when that is done, the Nagorno-karabach problem will be solved.
    See, simple.
    Pray.

    • Replies: @Bookish1
  74. Mikhail says: • Website
    @GMC

    I’m no Saker, he’s pretty intelligent about the situations here – but I live Russia and Crimea and there are a lot of Azerbaijani working in Crimea and Southern Russia – construction, market place and produce , etc. they are part of the old Soviet bloc and they are no problem . Maybe that’s why Putin has a good relationship with the Azerbaijanis. Iranians too visit Russia and they are always welcome – good people – I’ve been on excursions with them in a group – family orientated strong. It’s a whole different way of culture, thinking and societal interactions here. And the Russian jews I know and I have two good friends – and my wife has good friends in Israel and visits them – it’s not the Zionist crowd , it’s the Russian/Crimea crowd – whether you are Russian, Ukrainian, Tatar, Turk, Moldovan, Belarusian, Georgian – it’s all cool . I don’t think the West has the real perception of the Eastern people – if you have been to Asia, you saw a different culture – an interesting, not quite able to understand one – same with EurAsia. Spacibo.

    Anglo-American influenced mass media has a way of shaping minds. Consider the PC Ukrainians who typically get the air time over the more pro-Russian ones. Another factor are dubious polls on how such and such group thinks.

    BTW, the Armenian-Rusisan RT head has blasted those Armenians blaming Russia.

  75. CM says:

    I think the Russian presence in the South Caucasus is probably a “win” for Armenia. I know they like to talk of “independence”, but if the Russians are there it does protect Armenia from future Turkish-Azeri assaults.

    Also, is there any chance that the yellow space on the map, wedged between Armenia proper and remaining NKR territory, can somehow remain in Armenian control? Is the map still under negotiation, or is it indisputable that Russia will hand that area to Azerbaijan as punishment for pivoting away from Russia?

    FWIW Armenia has suffered greatly due to Israeli and American neoconservaitve meddling. There’s a theory going around in those political circles that destroying Armenia will somehow weaken Iran and Russia (lol). So Armenia under Pashinyan wasn’t even loyal to Russia, but it still got punished by the West for being loyal to Russia. Check out how much U.S. aid to Armenia decreased under Trump – obvious neocon and Israeli meddling.

  76. Very interesting analysis. I cant say I know the issues well enough to comment. But my question to anyone in the know is why did Armenia seem inept at handling drone attacks?

  77. XYZ001 says:

    I wish the US state department had 1/1oo the ability to analyze and plan that the Saker shows. We can never hope to compete with Putin, Lavrov or Germasinov. They actually care about their country and culture. Our bureaucrats are simply sycophantic simpletons trying to get rich off the sweat from the riches’ genitals.

  78. Shaman911 says:

    Jewish bankers, arms suppliers, investors, organized crime, organ traffickers, and MOSSAD are the only winners here. It’s the same everywhere on earth and has been since pre Egyptian times.

    • Agree: Druid55
  79. @anon

    The issue in the past was that there are a lot of Azeris in Iran (Persian Empire) and Iran feared separatist movements. In recent times things became more cordial – but it is obvious Israel wanted to seize on the former rift.

  80. @Priss Factor

    I’m sure that even after 2-3 years of ‘Sorosization’ Armenia is still far more
    conservative country (globo-homo wise) comparing to Turkey.
    “Midnight Express”, 1978, film (written by Oliver Stone) is very precise about
    this phenomenon.

  81. Seraphim says:
    @Anonymous

    How ‘not an Anglo in sight’? The “2000 US personnel in Erevan pushing russophobic policies on Armenia” were not Anglos?

  82. republic says:
    @Ghali

    See the maps in English at Anatoly Karlin’s blog today regarding the Karabakh situation

  83. Cato says:
    @Lost American

    It is a useful, interesting article. I have read a lot on what the Turks did to the Armenians.

    Yes, it is a good article. But when you say that you read a lot on what Turks did to the Armenians, I fear that you don’t understand the degree to which Americans still look at those events through the lens of 1919: sympathy for fellow Christians and hatred towards those who opposed us in World War I.

    Fact is, Armenians attempted to ethnically cleanse Eastern Anatolia, an area where they comprised less than a third of the population in every province. Kurds were the majority, and what happened to the Armenians, which is undeniably tragic, demonstrates that it is supremely foolish to try to wipe out a clannish, hardened people, when one lacks superior numbers. I would recommend that you “read a lot” in the work of Justin McCarthy.

    • Agree: Druid55
    • Replies: @CM
  84. Bookish1 says:
    @R2b

    National Socialism would fill the spiritual void

  85. @Ray Caruso

    Agree with everything, except “ … a lot of it is a consequence of the fact the US
    is a fundamentally liberal country and liberalism is accurately defined as taking the
    side of evil…
    “.
    Unfortunately, not so liberal countries but with the same notorious master(s) do
    exactly the same. It’s more about personalized blackmail, bribery of all sorts,
    membership in some global “brotherhoods”, and so forth.
    Very few countries in the world are standing to that pressure, and they all are
    haunted and crippled by “the plague”.

  86. CM says:
    @Cato

    Another Turk with his pseudohistory and justifying of genocide. Never mind that the Armenians were the least militarised of all ethnic groups within the Ottoman state, they still all deserved to die. And nevermind the enormous violence inflicted on Armenians by Turks-Kurds from the 1800s, any Armenian that dreamed of an independent state to be free from such violence meant all Armenians needed to be exterminated from their homeland.

    • Agree: Robjil
    • Replies: @Zimriel
  87. Druid55 says:
    @Lot

    Lot, the pardo , is back with his ant-islam rhetoric. Tru Ju goes on and on

  88. Yevardian says:
    @Gorgeous George

    No fan of Pashinyan, but I doubt this in the extreme, pics or it didn’t happen.

    • Replies: @Gorgeous George
  89. @Wielgus

    I am skeptical of the “Sorosian” narrative

    Every time sorosoids get to power due to the stupidity of the locals (Armenia, Georgia, Ukraine), the result is the same: national catastrophe. Soros is not playing for individual countries, he is playing for the globalist cabal. Cabal wins when the countries go down the drain. If senile sorosoid becomes the US president, the US would go the same way as Armenia.

  90. anonymous[400] • Disclaimer says:
    @Ray Caruso

    The US takes the side of Moslems against all but

    Can you imagine the carnage and bloodshed that would have ensued had the American sponsored jihadis won in Syria? It would have been a Mongol/Pol Pot type massacre happening under the revered Obama. Course the media would have blotted it out from coverage. It was an atrocity inflicted on the people of Syria that was just evil. And so on down the list.

    • Agree: Showmethereal
  91. @anon

    chechen, dagi, and ingush not far away who could be riled up and act as a 5th column within russia (their self identity is closer to the turks)

    You apparently don’t know North Caucuses people. The term ”dagi” gives this away: there are a few dozen “nations” in Dagestan, speaking different languages, and they hate each other more passionately than anyone else. The same is true for all North Caucuses “nations”: Chechens are the bitterest enemies of Ingushes, and vice versa. None of them identifies with Turks. Not to mention that compared to them, Turks are over-civilized and insufficiently brood-thirsty.

  92. Thank you Mr. Saker for a great article on what’s happening there. I even liked the Russian map (for local color) although I did search up an english map of the region so I could follow the story.

  93. Pontus111 says:

    Pashinyan never met Soros – that is a photoshopped image that Russians like to circulate.

    You know who actually met Soros? Aliyev.

    Spreading such pathetic propaganda does nothing to instill credibility. I understand that Russians must portray themselves as a victor in every instance, hence repeat the Soros garbage.

    In fact, most of the claims of Armenia under Pashinyan taking anti-Russian positions emanate from Azeri media sources. Congrats to Azeris for effective propaganda.

    Infact, Sergey Lavrov was today chastising the anti-Pashinyan pro-Russian Armenian opposition. Go figure.

  94. @Hossein

    “That proves that this war was not about religion ”

    War is never over, under, around, or about religion. The purpose of war is to conquer territory and resources (including people and geographic advantage as resources).

  95. @Priss Factor

    Maybe if modern society did not have a degenerate culture, the Kardashians would not have ever become popular or famous. Most Armenians in the diaspora and the homeland don’t care about her at all. The fact that you are obsessed with her though says more about you.

  96. Anonymous[251] • Disclaimer says:

    Basically, the neoliberal Soros-funded government of Armenia gambled that Russia (their only real ally) wouldn’t be foolish enough to let their southern border fall into chaos. Well, I offer you Putin’s government. Now that the issue is settled, some Russian troops come in to oversee the humiliation. Armenia is screwed like Syria and every other Russian “ally”. Russia of course kicks the can down the road for a few more years (or is it months).

  97. @Lost American

    “I have met American suburban youth in their 20s and 30s who are totally ignorant of geography and history.
    I am in my 70s.

    As an American, I can say that close to 100% of Americans have been brainwashed and still believe all their lives that the American Civil War was fought over slavery. Abraham Lincoln’s First Inaugural Address in 1861 (found at abrahamlincolnonline.com) should dispel this myth, but it is not taught to kids, Americans won’t read it, and they wouldn’t believe it anyway. Talk about being ignorant of history. I am 69, and only figured it out in the last 10-15 years.

    This mind control, which is embedded in the education and culture is to enforce the belief that our military kills people for a good and noble cause. It props up the war machine. But Lincoln did not kill half a million of his own people to do something nice for someone else. He killed half a million of his own people to make the Southerners bow down and pay their taxes.

    This propaganda is taught in our education the same way people were convinced that Sadam Huessin of Iraq was behind the NY Tower Bombings in 2001. They never say it, but just keep insinuating it, such as this history taught in school:

    Uncle Tom’s Cabin, John Browns Raid…, Harpers Ferry, the Missouri Compromise, the firing on
    Ft. Sumpter, … and then there was a war and the slaves were freed!

    Well designed and massively implemented propaganda works.

  98. Anonymous[251] • Disclaimer says:
    @Lot

    Yup. Saker and the rest of the Team Russia dummies think they’re channeling their inner Tolstoy with this kind of long-winded rubbish, but they’re just showing how clueless they are.

    • Agree: Agathoklis
    • Replies: @Agathoklis
  99. Most Armenians in the diaspora and the homeland don’t care about her at all.

    Most Armenians are cucked crooks who suck up to the West.

    Armenians in the US are a bunch of globo-homo maggots.

    Go Azeris! Praise Allah!

    • Replies: @4Dchessmaster
    , @Pontus111
  100. @Priss Factor

    Thanks for the troll response. I see no point in continuing this conversation.

  101. Pontus111 says:
    @Priss Factor

    Yeah praise the Azeris who killed two Russian pilots. Also praise the Turks who killed another Russian pilot.

    But yes, lets engage in cope and claim it was a NATO conspiracy.

    Meanwhile, Azeris in Russia celebrated the death of the Russian pilots.

    Long live the Tartar-Turkic-Azeri alliance! (although Azeris are confused as to whether they are Turks or Persians or Caucasian Albanians).

  102. The American way of life is teetering on extinction. Leftist insurgents burned and pillaged cities across this country until their demented mouthpiece was handed the reins. Are we really expected to give a shit about some Azerbaijani-Armenian dust up? Aren’t we bogged down in enough “shithole” countries already? Let the Israelis get off their kosher asses and do something God knows we send them enough blood money.

  103. Wielgus says:
    @Anonymous

    A meme as well as the man? So basically there is little substance to it?
    On another thread on this site it was claimed Soros and Pashinyan have never met, whereas Soros and Aliyev have and were photographed together.
    Perhaps the “but muh Soros” stuff was concocted to make people who usually complain about Londonistan and burqas less bothered about Christians being attacked by Muslims?

  104. blade says:
    @Hossein

    You are right. Except, Turkish population of Iran is far above 20 million, Azeris alone are more numerous than that.

  105. @Yevardian

    Yevardian,

    you can google the term “Pashinian and Soros” and find it.

    Also there is an extensive article here https://azeridaily.com/reality/50297 that has the photo and cites Grigory Trofimchuk (Chairman of the Russia-based Expert Council of the Eurasian Foundation for Support of Scientific Research) and also Narek Malyan, an Armenian who led a protest against Soros’ Open Society and was arrested this January.

    Basically that is a well known photo, I’m kind of surprised that you would ask me for it.

    There are other articles where I saw this photo (non Azerbaijan sources) but right now I can’t be bothered to find them.

    Also South Front had an extensive video about the color revolution that happened in Armenia in 2018 and mentioned his Soros connection. Not sure if the pic appears there too but I would bet that it does.

    https://maps.southfront.org/crisis-in-armenia-and-balance-of-power-in-south-caucasus/

    I hope this clarifies.

  106. Blade says:
    @BlueB

    I recommend you play nice with Turks. Another 1000 years of Turkish rule may be on its way in Iran if you are not nice, Turks don’t like people who are not nice, be nice.

    Turks are famous for making a lot of noise, but that’s just about it.

    Is that why you are so afraid, or you were ruled by Turks for almost 1000 years?

    Turks are also well known for killing each other for the most stupid of reasons.

    Should have killed more Persians, but you were so busy kissing Turks’ feet that there never was an opportunity. 😀

    Iran has fought the US regime and its thousands of terrorist groups along its borders for over 20 years

    But Iran hasn’t fought Turks ever since Iran is no longer ruled by Turks. I suggest you take that seriously, with Persians in control, this time Turks would not sack Tabriz alone but will end up in Pakistan border.

    Iranian nation helping Armenia, and get all bent out of shape, remember this, Iran will help any group of people in need of protection

    Iran helped Armenians because they are fighting against Azeris and as one can see in your post even, Persians are terrified of possibility of Turks ruling them once again. Azeris will not forget. You also call Azeris derogatory names, and oppress them. All because of your fear.

    With the economy of Turkey in free fall

    Turkey has a long way before it falls as deep as Iran.

    the recent earthquake, and the tsunami

    Fear makes all our adversaries spout nonsense like this. Earthquake caused collapse of of a couple dozen apartments and ~100 dead. Big deal. Tsunami? Lol. Yeah, it is so bad in Turkey that Mount Ararat is the only place sea cannot reach now, please tell that to your compatriots so that they can stop running from Iran to Turkey.

    the “Turkish regime” will only be dreaming of an Ottoman Empire.

    Ottoman Empire never ruled Iran. You confuse Ottomans with other Turkish empires that ruled Iran, the ones that gave you your religion. Turkey need not rule Iran, it is enough to liberate Azeris; Tabriz, Tehran and some other cities. You can live near Pakistan border.

    And why does the fake Azerbaijan regime allow ISIS Terrorist on its territory?

    No ISIS in Azerbaijan or in anywhere where Turks send “Syrians.” The simple fact is that, most of those so called “Syrian mercenaries” are actually Syrian Turkmens and Turks from Turkey.

    You should know that their is a long chess game being played and the Iranian nation is know for being some of the best chess players around.

    Was 1000 years Turkish rule a part of long chess game of Persians? I mean, I guess you could say that since it saved you from Arabization.

    And Iran got what it wanted

    Iran wants Turkish military in Azerbaijan? Because it happened, soon there will be a Turkish base.

    • Replies: @BlueB
  107. Blade says:

    I have warned Armenians all the way back when this started, it was obvious it was a lost cause. Instead of being ruled by paranoia and hysteria, they had to reach Turkey and seek a way to solve this problem. In the end, they not only lost Karabakh but also thousands of their youth, possibly their independence if agents of Russia in Armenia succeed, and haven’t gained anything in return. Turks don’t really hate Armenians, but that doesn’t change the fact that Turks had to support Azerbaijan. Listening to diaspora is never a good idea, they have nothing to lose, it is the actual Armenians who have to fight and die. Unfortunately diaspora’s Turkish hatred once again exceeded their love for their fellow Armenians.

    Pashinian did the right thing if late, I suspect he would want to do it from the beginning but Armenian fanatics wouldn’t allow it. If Armenians have slightest shred of intelligence they should keep Pashinian in government, and figure out a way to establish ties with Turkey. Turks aren’t interested in Ottoman Empire or invading Armenia. It would be in Turkey’s interest if Armenia is safer and more prosperous and friendly with Turkey. Look at Georgia. If Georgians can do it, and get a foothold in NATO, why couldn’t Armenians?

  108. @Anonymous

    Russia now has more Muslims closer to its behind but somehow this is a victory. Hilarious.

    • Replies: @Anonymous
  109. @Hossein

    The funniest part us that for most of history Azerbaijan was a part of Persia. So what is it with SOME Turks and separatist movements wherever they live?

  110. Anonymous[380] • Disclaimer says:
    @flashlight joe

    I would say the war was fought to ensure the North didn’t have a British satellite state on their southern border and pose a threat to westward expansion that Northern elites wanted, but apart from that complete agreement.

  111. Anonymous[380] • Disclaimer says:
    @Agathoklis

    Yes, and effectively two new NATO states on the border. But hey, they sure taught Pashinian a lesson, didn’t they? Someone needs to explain to the Russians that cutting off your nose to spite your face isn’t a clever strategy.

  112. One thing is sure, the Russians stopped another genocide. Or maybe postponed, we will see.

    Erdoghan and Aliyev had promised to finish off the Armenians who survived the yataghan in 1915.

  113. Moi says:
    @Lot

    Islamic aggression should have captured a lot more “christian” lands.

  114. pepeyu says:

    Another shameful betrayal by the Putinist – Yeltsinist Russia of a friendly orthodox nation and a historical friend. As the anti-Christian and anti-Russian Muslim extremists led by the “partner” Erdogan have come forward to promptly and openly help and support their own, Russia betrayed one of its own allies once again. It’s Serbia, Ukraine, Cuba etc. all over again. It’s nothing short of shame. The Russian strategy seems to be that since Armenia is geographically squeezed between its enemies and therefore it has nowhere to turn but to Russia, it can treat it any way it wants. It is immoral and short-sighted and, obviously, it is one of the main reasons that today’s Russia has no friends among Christian nations? Currently, the Russian so called “peacekeepers” are securing and cementing military gains by the Islamic Turkey and Azerbaijan as well as facilitating an orderly ethnic purge of the orthodox people from their ancestral lands. This is the same role the selfish and misguided Russia played in the defeat of the orthodox Serbs while siding with US, NATO, Croats, Turks etc. Pandering to Muslims will dearly cost Russian people in the future because they will inevitably lose those remaining few and precious true friends. So, unless they find strength and conviction to finally, after almost 4 decades, free themselves from the rule of oligarchy and former apparatchiks of the communist regime for Russia things will get only worse. After so many lives and equipment has been lost in recent years by hostile actions of “partners” like Israel, Turkey, Saudi Arabia and now Azerbaijan, the policies of Russian government must be felt with deep pessimism, skepticism and humiliation in the Russian army as well as among the Russian people. But also, among the shaky friends of Russia.

    • Replies: @Anonymous
  115. eggplant says:
    @Commentator Mike

    No, but it’s a land border which will allow them to sneak in and out as they see fit.

  116. Anonymous[380] • Disclaimer says:
    @pepeyu

    +1000. But of course the Team Russia retards will tell you it’s all part of Putin‘s 50 dimensional chess game or some shit like that. Basically, these clowns think Russia is a white Wakanda. Total fantasy land.

  117. Zimriel says:
    @CM

    You didn’t disprove him. Indeed, the Turks under Abdelhamid II had cut into the Armenian population quite a bit, and allowed Kurds to move in. That being accomplished, future Armenian and Czarist Russian attempts to flip the balance to the Armenians again – by force – were doomed.
    The thing about population is that once you start losing it, you aren’t in as good a position to get it back again.

    • Replies: @Dany
  118. Anonymous[419] • Disclaimer says:

    Russians remind me of American blacks: they’re so consumed with the short-term issue of being “dissed” by Armenia that they’re incapable of seeing the long-term consequences of their actions (or inaction).

  119. Blade says:

    Seeing these comments crapping on Russians, reminds me of Turkish problems with small nations around us, particularly the ones that focus on religion. Russians are doing a pretty good job running their policies and the country. Given that with 40% of the population of the US they manage to be one of the main adversaries of the US. You people simply don’t understand that history is changing and that Turks and Russians, while not always agreeing, are at least realizing there is hardly anything to be gained by fighting hard with each other at every turn, especially for the sake of other nations in the name of religion.

  120. Anonymous[221] • Disclaimer says:

    System of a Down are a bunch of old, fat socialists who have done quite well in the capitalist USA. I guess they were too busy writing a shitty song to sign up for front-line duty. They remind me of Jews, always whining about something that happened in a war a hundred years ago. No wonder so many Armenians live in SoCal.

  121. BlueB says:
    @Blade

    Your argument is full of nonsensical, gloating with no factual, on the ground geopolitical evidence to support your rant. Reality is very different on the battle ground.
    You clearly have no understand of history, economics, geopolitics, and military strategy.
    Turkey has nothing to be proud of; murdering innocent Armenians, a population of 3 million is noting to be brag about. And using innocent people living inside the fake Azerbaijan entity as meat for slaughter is also nothing to be proud of, a population of 10 million.
    Starting a war with the Iranian nation would mean taking on a country with a population of 85 million and a 20 million combat ready and battle hardened fighters that have fought in Iraq, Syria, and Lebanon.
    Regarding Pakistan, there are the resistance force in Pakistan who are just itchy for a fight. The same goes for the resistance in Afghanistan.
    Turkey has failed and has been blocked in Libya, Syria, and Iraq. That is why they are trying to start a conflict in the Caucasus to move domestic attention away from the economic, domestic and geopolitical failures. The collapse of the Lira is just one economic reason that the Turkish economy is in free fall. Turkey has borrowed billions from both China and Russia. That means Turkey is beholden to both China and Russia.
    You should include the Kurds in your calculations, they are just waiting for an opportunity to attack Turkey. The millions of Kurds living in Turkey are a major threat to Turkey and its ottoman wet dreams.
    Iran can apply pressure on Turkey from many areas; Lebanon, Syria and Iraq are just a few of these pressure points.
    As I have stated, the Iranian resistance within the Fake Azerbaijan entity is another point of pressure.
    You have also not calculate the Russian factor in your argument.
    It has been clear from the beginning that Turkey has send the same terrorists it had used to murder the innocent people of Syria into the Fake Azerbaijan entity to find a foot hold in the Caucasus. And once again Russia has blocked Turkey. And the fake Azerbaijan entity is now under Russian occupation and control.
    Iran is the only country since WW2 that has targeted the US regime, the mighty US empire with military bases surrounding Iran has become laughing stock thanks to Iran’s military power.
    The Turkish army is nothing for Iran. And the Fake Azerbaijan entity is just a joke.
    You seem to down play the thousand of terrorists that were defeated by Iran in Iraq, Syria and Lebanon. These terrorists were also supported by the US regime, Turkey, Saudi Arabia, UAE, the whole of Europe, and the Zionist apartheid entity with the most advanced weapons, financial support, and logistics. You are in no position to make comments about military and asymmetric warfare.
    Today both Armenia and the Fake Azerbaijan entity are under the full control of Russia peacekeeping military for the next 5 years, all moves will be heavily monitored. And the Iranian military is stationed on the borders, any foolish action by Turkey and its terrorist groups will be neutralized.
    Individuals like you who gloat about killing and murdering innocent civilians and illegally occupying the land of others are the typical hot headed, indoctrinated people that talk a lot of trash, but common sense and reality is nonexistent. Too much propaganda and no facts.

    The economic factor: Turkey is a oil deprived country, the illegal attacks on Greece, Libya, the theft of Syrian oil and the desire to support the fake Azerbaijan entity is for oil resources and oil pipelines. The Caucasus has some of the oldest oil reserves and Turkey wants to cut the pipelines running into the Black Sea via Azerbaijan and Georgia to run through Turkey. Iran has its own oil reserves in the Caucasus and it also owns 20% of the oil reserves of the Azerbaijan entity.

    Simply put, you are clueless.

    • Replies: @Blade
    , @Showmethereal
  122. Blade says:
    @BlueB

    You should not bite the hand that feeds you. You may make sleepy Tayyip Erdogan wake up and realize that Iran is no friend of Turkey, and then it is only a matter of time before your country is destroyed by Turkey, Israel and NATO alliance. You should stop pressures on Turks in Iran, you owe them at least that much since they didn’t erase Persians off history. I am usually right on the long term, you will either appease Turks or pay a heavy price, very heavy price. I have no time to correct bunch of factual errors in your post. Once Erdogan is gone there may be people who will put your mistakes on the table and demand explanation.

    On few quick notes:

    Libya -> Turkey wasn’t present just a couple years ago, GNA was almost destroyed. We interfered, reversed the course of war with minimal involvement and will reap benefits including a base in Misrata,

    Syria -> It is a stalemate for the time being, Turkey wasn’t present in Syria 10 years ago, now it is a disagreement between the US and Turkey whether PYD should have a state or should Turkey invade, North of Syria is slowly getting into Turkish sphere, you are clueless they are even using Turkish currency nowadays,

    Iraq -> Turkey wasn’t here 10 years ago, now it is solidly clawing in and has a bunch of bases in North Iraq, on a daily basis PKK and other terror elements are being targeted, Kurds are close allies here,

    Azerbaijan -> We wanted NK problem out of way, supported Azerbaijan, and got more than we bargained for (the connection to Nakhcewan), this reduces Azeri dependence and appeasement for Iran, soon we will likely have military bases in Azerbaijan,

    Armenia -> Here, Armenians are actually misled by diaspora and Turkey’s enemies. We are not interested in harming Armenians, but we could never had peace and open borders while NK was under invasion, now that it is out of way there is a good chance of bringing Armenia closer to Turkey. Turks can’t lost anything here, but may gain more,

    Kurds -> Never been closer to Turks, Kurdish citizens are happy foreign supported PKK can no longer get their necks out of their caves, some of the most nationalist Turkish citizens can be found among Kurds you are listening PKK extensions in Europe too much,

    Lebanon -> Pressure Turkey from Lebanon. Lol, so much for geopolitics knowledge. Lebanon isn’t important for Turkey, it’s important for Iran because you want to support anti-Israel terror organizations there,

    Remember, all these developments despite an adversarial US in the last decade. Had the US administrations been smarter, both Turkey and the US could gain much more already. You are daydreaming if you are thinking Russia keeps “blocking” Turkey everywhere. Russia is preventing Turkey from total victories, but vice versa also applies.

    So far, Turkey was largely uninterested in Turks in Iran. That apparently makes Persians spoiled. You will cry a lot if Turks follows an anti-Iran path. So I suggest once again, play nice with Turks or you will regret a lot in this decade.

    • Replies: @Dany
  123. Medsamor says:

    Saker, thank you for the “deep dive” into Russian policy in the Transkavkaz and the tragic humbling of Armenia (May She Rise Again!). I have a number of questions, but I’ll pose just one now. You mention that both the Azeri and Armenian sides tortured and executed their POWS, hence the lack of same. While I don’t consider myself naive, I have noted that different societies, cultures, ethnicities, and military traditions do often view such behavior in different ways. And I have always taken pride in what I understand to be the rarity of such gratuitously cruel and unnecessary behavior by Armenians. For example, the exodus of Azeris living in Armenia when news of the Sumgait atrocities broke was not marred — to my understanding — by rape and murder of those Azeris by Armenians. And I believe that while Amnesty International and the Red Cross/Crescent noted the horrors perpetrated on civilians by the Azeris in 93/94 in Karabakh (reminiscent of 1915-18), there was no mention of Armenians engaging in similar acts that I am aware of.

    Can you provide the source(s) for your conclusion that Armenians tortured and executed Azeri POWs? I don’t discount what you say (though I consider it unlikely to be correct on any large, or policy driven, scale). If true, this would be deeply distressing to me as an Armenian. Thank you.

    • Replies: @Anonymous
  124. Anonymous[354] • Disclaimer says:
    @Medsamor

    You’re expecting the Saker to take a break from waxing nostalgic about Stalin on the beach in Florida to answer your question? You’d be better off asking Dan Bilzerian to lay off the weed and get ready to fight (didn’t he join the Armenian army as a publicity stunt?).

  125. Dany says:
    @Blade

    @„blade“
    In the past, Turkey was only successful because of the unimaginable (for Europeans) cruelty against children, women and elderly. Rape & beheading, 100s of years. Also, Turkey always got help from renegade Europeans – just read history about how friendly France, Vatican, Venice, Hungary or Germany, France, UK were, at different points of time. (Hungarians delivered the special canons for the destruction of Constantinople‘s defenses, but were not spared later.)
    Turks have a unsurmountable problem: They win, and the territory becomes turkish. 100 to 200 years later the loot and plunder is eaten off, the populace consists of a turkish brew; civilization is gone, standard of living is as in the Stone Age. Consequently, turks get beaten and invaded.
    The role of Turkey now is to conquer Russia, because the Empire doesn’t want to sacrifice its soldiers. This time it may work, since Turkey will develop nukes, with a little help from its paki friends. And they‘ll use them against Russia, because turks are sly, but ignore consequences. The renegade Europeans (this time Poland & Co., including the turkish dominions Georgia and Armenia) will also attack Russia and get destroyed, together with Russia. Naive Germans will be washed away as well, having 70k foreign troups and nukes on their soil.
    @Saker
    Russia will perish, because its leadership never cared / doesn‘t care of the common Russians. I‘ve been in ex-soviet Central Asia. It is astonishing, how much the Russians have built there – infrastructure, health care, education, you name it. And this in the same time as Russians were living in the mud and almost starving. Then in 1991 they were chased away and left it all without a word. Somehow the Russian elites overestimate their resources and riches. During the WWII they were plenty, 6-8 children per family etc. This time it‘s different.
    Don‘t get me wrong, Saker. I‘ve got a great sympathy for Russia and Russians. Generous, warm and intelligent people, unique culture (among classics, I still like Vyssotzkyi and „Судьба чяловека“ very much). So I can only hope some divine intervention will help.
    As for the turks – all has been said: „The Moor has done his duty, …“. Hopefully, they leave politely, otherwise – poor Greeks.

    • Replies: @Blade
  126. Dany says:
    @Zimriel

    … doomed.
    Yes, because they didn‘t kill, rape&kill and loot all and everybody. They don‘t learn.

    Look at Kosovo: The Albanians did it the moslem way (kill, rape&kill and loot all ), and for that they got billions €€€ + independence as a reward. Got recognized, wear suits and visit the White House. Not a word about ethnic Serbs.
    (Actually, Mme Del Ponte, of the International Tribunal for Yugoslavia, after hiding the facts durin her active service, wrote a book about how the Albanian Democrats, with financial support from the West, harvested kidneys and hearts from 1000s of young Serbs. Un detail piquant: the Serbs were alive while their kidneys and hearts were cut of – well, not for very long. Mme Del Ponte, a darling before the book, has been publicly rucified after the publication.)

  127. Dany says:
    @Anon

    @ Anon[216]

    Forgot about 500 years killing and rape&murder? Where are the Christians in Turkey – they were a majority back then.
    Moslems are alway whining, before and after some massacre they just did. It‘s particularly disgusting that this mass murders & rapes have been done by the oh so nice neighbors who moved in few years ago – not drinking, polite and giving sweets.

  128. @neutral

    Thanks. I still believe what I learned late 60s- take out 10 for everyone of us.
    I read Evan Sayet’s books and am currently reading Michael Rechtenwald’s Beyond Woke. Rechtenwald taught Liberal Studies at NYU and spoke out about the mass hysteria and insanity.
    I have observed that many people from leftist liberal homes may have always had an underlying sociopathy of varying degrees and are quick to sell out decent citizens. NYU students are certainly getting cheated unless their minds can see through this stupidity.
    We can survive much more easily than they can. They are rough when in masses but there are ways to deal with that.
    It used to bother me that those at the top are doing little about the riots.

  129. @BlueB

    To further that – neither China nor Russia trust Turkey. Russia isnt as overt as to why but I believe it is in relation to the Chechens. Why? They both know that Turkey trains Uighurs from China to do their dirty work in places like Syria. If push comes to shove they might cut Turkey off. The SCO nations are all weary of Turkey and their fondness for jihadists.

  130. @Lost American

    I’m sure that you are right. We have, for now, several children attending government (“public”) school in the LAUSD (Los Angeles Unified (ha) School District). We are continually disappointed and offended to see how little they know about US history and geography compared to what I had learned at the same points in my school years in the 1970s-1980s.

    They know who Cesar Chavez was and why he was “heroic”, but have never heard of Thomas Paine, John Locke, or anything beyond the most superficial content-free junk about the Founding Fathers. They aren’t taught state capitals, let alone the location and very basic facts about other countries. Embarassing and frightening.

    Our children get a lot of additional substantive and philosophical education from us directly, and we will be moving them to a State with somewhat less biased, extreme, and incomplete history curriculum. But most of their classmates will end up utterly ignorant, yet sure of their moral righteousness and the evil of traditional European America, Christianity, “heteronormativity”, normal families and sex roles, “capitalism”, etc. All the easier to whip them up into supporting US gov wars, occupations, and provocations in countries they can’t find on a map.

  131. @Lot

    I wholeheartedly share your apparent desire that Russians start having many more children.

  132. @Zimriel

    The Azeris may be “hardly Saudis”, but that won’t help the Armenians. Without Russia in the picture, the Azeris and perhaps the Turks more openly would finish the Armenian extermination they started over a century ago. They’ll rape and pillage their way through Armenia proper when they can get away with it.

    Not much comfort for the remaining terrified, displaced Armenians that their former homeland will be ruled by “moderate Muslims” instead of Saudis, is it?

  133. @anonymous

    Azeri and Turkish hate for Christians is intense. Turks committed genocide on Armenians in what is now Turkey. Many of the Armenian women who survived the genocide were sold to Turkish families. ( https://www.independent.co.uk/voices/turkey-race-armenian-recep-tayyip-erdogan-generlogy-family-trees-ethnicity-a8234346.html )

    Azeris too are as barbarian as their Turkish ( originally from Central Asia ) brothers. I was recently shocked when I saw an Azerbaijani soldier on video cutting the ear of an elderly Armenian from N.K.

  134. @flashlight joe

    Thank you for the history. I have several books countering the narratives of the American educational system.
    I wonder what the future will be with all these uneducated creatures. I guess life will just come down to carrying a smart phone, listening to music, seeking basal pleasures, and complaining.

  135. @flashlight joe

    Is there a chance of America splitting into two countries? I have often thought of this. Kurt Schlicter (? spelling} has books out on this but they are novels. Has any thought gone into this or would the corporate Democrat totalitarian machine pull another Lincoln on us?

  136. Blade says:
    @Dany

    You keep rambling. Turkey has no interest in fighting with Russia for the sake of West that supports terrorists near Turkey’s borders. Keep your wet dreams to yourself. Neither does Russia have anything to gain by attacking Turkey. Turkey has solved more problems by negotiating with Russia for the past 5 years (sometimes fight, sometimes talk) than it did in last 50 years by being a good NATO member. Nuking Russia? Yeah, right lol. We will eventually build nukes, honestly, I think it would be an excellent move if Russia gave some nukes to Turkey. However, we have neither need, nor interest, nor a reason to nuke or go to a serious war with Russia (again, you sound honestly insane when you say stuff like this). Same applies to Russia as well. Turks do not owe NATO anything. It was a historical mistake, caused by nothing but USSR paranoia. Over fifty years of membership, and all Turkey receive is threats, sanctions, unfair treatment, NATO supported coups, using agents to kill a Russian ambassador (a national embarrassment for Turks), and NATO supported terrorism in Turkey. No thanks, you fight with Russians. Turks are not your mercenaries. Russian boogeyman is no longer a working propaganda point in Turkey. Ottomans are gone, so did USSR. Turkey and Russia will only both benefit if they play smart.

    As far as “Russia will perish,” idea is concerned, I am not a Russian. But as far as I can see both Turks and Russians are much more resilient than any European people and they have proven it many times. Make sure you will not perish first (remember African bombers spreading their seeds very well in your countries), I doubt neither Turks nor Russians will perish in foreseeable future.

  137. OCGOKTAS says:

    Dear Saker

    No thanks for this really crap article. Your arguments are full of biased thinking if not nonsense. It is not even worth commenting on. Any objective eye will see that Turkey has won a lot more than Russia. And your understanding of Erdogan is mental just feeding your own western arrogance. Russia was already in Armenia and what more she will gain for keeping another 3000 thousand troops in Nagorno Karabakh apart from cost.

  138. Makarios says:

    Armenians are irrelevant.

    Putin THE JEW screwed and betrayed Russia itself. I’m blaming Putin and his Jew-infested administration for betraying Russia’s national interests.

    Turks and Muslim ISIS terrorists should have NEVER been allowed to invade the Caucuses.

    A patriotic and *pragmatic* Russian government would have recognized Artsakh as an independent and sovereign entity and, by the same token, would have snubbed the anti-Russian Pashinyan administration, driving a wedge between Artsakh and Armenia.

    Then swoop down into Artsakh and environs and secure control of the region before it was destroyed, desecrated and invaded by the Turks and their ISIS allies.

    THAT would have been what Russia’s national interests dictated.

  139. Makarios says:

    “Russia is the only true winner of this war.”

    Respectfully disagreed.

    The result was AWFUL for Russia herself.

    1) Russians could have toppled the treasonous pro-Western Pashinyan administration by recognizing Artsakh, empowering and rendering them INDEPENDENT from Armenia, thus driving a wedge between Artsakh and Armenia proper, which would have weakened Pashinyan and emboldened patriotic and pragmatic Armenians everywhere. Instead, the Russians chose to accommodate Pashinyan’s stay in power, and by the same token destroy the trust of their likely staunch Armenian allies in Artsakh.

    2) The Turks are now buying their gas directly from Azerbaijan instead of buying it from Russia, even though the Turks had signed long-term gas sales contracts with the Russians, I believe? Russia had built a gas pipeline to Turkey at great expense to herself. BIG MONETARY LOSS to Russia right there. This ought to be of paramount concern for the pragmatic Russians who are focused more on profit margins than any religious, strategic or or even ethical issues: the Russians themselves had documented the atrocities committed against Armenians by Azeri civilians in the pogroms of Sumgait and Baku. Putin and Aliyev are best friends indeed.

    3) De facto, if not de jure, the current Russian administration has enabled the Turks to transport and likely settle thousands of ISIS Jihadis in Artsakh. In other words, a colony of Islamist terrorists in the Caucuses. This is not in Russia’s national interest. There likely will be nefarious consequences for Russia’s security in the near future.

    4) Russians will not make much money through additional arms sales to Azerbaijan either. The Azeris are now making the bulk of their sophisticated arms purchases from Israel, Turkey, South Africa(?), Ukraine, and even the perfidious French I believe. The Azeris already bought all the Russian T-90 tanks they needed. They could even sell some back to Russia when the ISIS issue hits the fan in Chechnya and Dagestan soon enough. I’m really not sure the Russian population will enjoy watching the Jihadis beheading Russians on video as much as they enjoyed dismissing the Azeris’ cutting Armenians’ ears and heads off on their computer screens. Unfortunately, likely soon coming to a theater much closer to home.

    In conclusion,

    It was not in Russia’s best interests to openly display for the world to see that Russia’s ruling classes and the Russian government can, and do, wantonly trample Russian *national* interests underfoot, placing them above what personal gains they derive from their special “friendships” with bloodthirsty tyrants like Aliyev and Erdogan.

    After all, who needs enemies when you can have friends like the Russians? Serbia? Ethnic Russians of Ukraine? The Syrians and the Iranians whom the Russians allow the Israelis to bomb and kill with impunity?

    As for the Armenians, they continue to faintly exist only as the damning consciousness of man’s inhumanity to man.

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