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Just a few days into 2017 and we can already say with a great degree of confidence that 2017 will be a historical year. Furthermore, I submit that 2017 will be the “Year of Trump” because one of roughly three things will happen: either Trump will fully deliver on his threats and promises, or Trump deliver on some, but far from all, his threats and promises or, finally, Trump will be neutralized by the Neocon-run Congress, media, intelligence community. He might even be impeached or murdered. Of course, there is an infinity of sub-possibilities here, but for the purpose of this discussion I will call the first option “Trump heavy”, the second one “Trump light” and the third one “Trump down”. Before discussing the possible implications of these three main options, we need to at least set the stage with a reminder of what kind of situation President Trump will be walking into. I discussed some of them in my previous analysis entitled “2016: the year of Russia’s triumph” and will only mention some of the key outcomes of the past year in this discussion. They are:

  1. The USA has lost the war against Syria. I chose my words carefully here: what initially had many aspects of a civil war almost immediately turned into a war of aggression by a very large coalition of countries under the leadership of the United State. From the creation of the “Friends of Syria”, to covert support of the various terrorist organizations, to the attempts at isolating the Syrian government, the United States rapidly took control of the “war against Assad” and they now “own” that defeat. Now it is Russia which is in full control of the future of Syria. First, the Russians tried to work with the USA, but it soon became impossible, and the Russians concluded in utter disgust that the US foreign policy was run not from the White House or Foggy Bottom, but from the Pentagon. The Pentagon, however, completely and abjectly failed to achieve anything in Syria and the Russians seem to have come to the amazing conclusion that they can simply ignore the USA from now on. Instead they turned to the Turks and the Iranians to stop the war. This is an absolutely amazing development: for the first time since WWII the USA have become irrelevant to the outcome of a conflict which they greatly contributed to create and perpetuate: having concluded that the Americans are “non-agreement capable” (недоговороспособны) the Russians won’t even try to oppose US efforts, they will simply ignore them. I believe that the case of Syria will be the first and most dramatic but that in the future the same will happen elsewhere, especially in Asia. That is a situation which no American had to face and it is very hard to predict how Trump will adapt to this completely new situation. I am cautiously optimistic that, as a good businessman, Trump will do the right thing and accept reality for what it is and focus his efforts and resources on a few critical issues/regions rather than further pursuing the Neocons’ pipe dream of worldwide “full-spectrum dominance”. But more about that later.
  2. Europe is in a state of total chaos. As I have written it many times, instead of the Ukraine becoming like Europe, it is Europe which became like the Ukraine: simply unsustainable and doomed to failure. The European crisis is a massive and multi-layered one. It is, of course, an economic crisis, but that crisis is made worse by a political one, which itself is compounded by a profound social crisis and, as a result, the entire EU system and the elites which used to run it are now facing a fundamental crisis of legitimacy. As for the European politicians, they are far busier denying the existence of the crisis rather than dealing with it. The United States which for decades carefully fostered and nurtured an entire generation of spineless, narrow-minded, neutered and infinitely subservient European “leaders” is now facing the unpleasant outcome that these European politicians are as clueless as blind puppies and that they simply have no policy and no vision whatsoever as to what to do next: they are all locked into a short term survival mode characterized by a quasi total tunnel vision which makes them oblivious to the environment they are operating in. A continent which produced the likes of Thatcher, de Gaulle or Schmidt now produces vapid non-entities like Hollande or Cameron. Trump will thus inherit a de-facto colony completely unable to manage itself. And, just to make things worse, while that colony’s comprador “elites” have no vision and no policy, at the same time it is deeply hostile to Donald Trump and in full support of his Neocon enemies. Again, this is a situation which no American President has ever faced.
  3. Russia is now the most powerful country on the planet. I know, I know, the Russian economy is relatively small, Russia has plenty of problems and just a year ago Obama dismissed Russia as a “regional power” while McCain referred to her as a “gas station masquerading as a country”. What can I say? – these two imbeciles were simply wrong and there is a good reason, plenty in fact, why Forbes has declared Putin the most powerful man on earth for four consecutive years. And it’s not just because the Russian armed forces are probably the most powerful and capable ones on earth (albeit not the largest ones) or because Russia has successfully defeated the USA in Syria and, really, the rest of the Middle-East. No, Russia is the most powerful country on earth because of two things: Russia openly rejects and denounces the worldwide political, economic and ideological system the USA has imposed upon our planet since WWII and because Vladimir Putin enjoys the rock-solid support of about 80%+ of the Russian population. The biggest strength of Russia in 2017 is a moral and a political one, it is the strength of a civilization which refuses to play by the rules which the West has successfully imposed on the rest of mankind. And now that Russia has successfully “pushed back” others will inevitably follow (again, especially in Asia). This is also a completely new situation for the next American President, who will have to operate in a world where defying Uncle Sam is not only not a death sentence any more, but might even be seen as rather trendy.
  4. China is now locked into a strategic alliance with Russia, which is something unique in world history. Unlike past alliances that could be broken or withdrawn from, what Putin and Xi did is to turn their countries into symbionts: Russia basically depends on China for many goods and services while China depends on Russia for energy, defense, aerospace and high-tech (for those interested in this topic I would recommend the excellent White Paper Larchmonter445 wrote for the Saker blog on this topic: The Russia-China Double Helix). As a result, Russia and China today are like a type of “Siamese twins” which have separate heads (political independence and their own governments) but which share a number of organs vital for both heads. This means that even if Russia/China wanted to “dump China/Russia” in exchange for a rapprochement with the USA she could not do that. To my knowledge nothing similar has ever happened before. Never have two (ex-) Empires decided to remain separate but fully integrated into each other. No grand charter, no big alliance, no solemn treaty was ever signed to make this happens, only a huge number of (comparatively) small(er) contracts and agreements. And yet they have quietly achieved something absolutely unique in history. What this means for the USA is that they cannot count on their favorite divide et impera strategy to try to rule the planet because that strategy simply cannot work any longer: even if the Russian and Chinese leaders got themselves into a heated dispute they could not undo what has now been done. The integrationist momentum between China and Russia could probably only be stopped by a war, and that is simply not happening. Right now Trump is making a lot of provocative gestures towards China, possibly in the hope that if the USA normalizes relations with Russia, China would find itself isolated. But isolating China is just as impossible as isolating Russia, and provoking China is simply a non-starter. For the first time since WWII the next American President will have to come to terms that in the Russia-China-USA triangle it is the USA which is the weakest and most vulnerable party.
  5. Iran is too powerful to be bullied or forced into submission. It is true that Iran is far weaker than Russia or China and that Iran is not a major international player. However, I would argue that Iran is a formidable regional superpower which can probably single-handedly take on any combination of regional countries and prevail against them, even if at a great cost. Just like Russia, Iran is protected by a perfect combination of geography and advanced armed forces. Oh sure, Iranian capabilities are not quite on par with US or Russian ones, but they powerful enough to make Iran an extremely tough and dangerous target to attack. Many years ago, in distant 2007, I wrote an article entitled “Iran’s asymmetrical response options” which is now clearly dated but primarily in the sense that since 2007 Iran has become even more dangerous to attack, be it by the USA, Israel or a combo of both. Would Russia and/or China go to war with the USA in case of a US/Israeli attack on Iran? No. But there would be very severe political consequences to pay for the USA: a guaranteed veto in the UNSC (even if US forces are targeted in the KSA or in the Strait of Hormuz), political, economic and possibly military support for Iran, intelligence support for Iranian operations not only in Iran, but also in Syria, Iraq, Afghanistan and elsewhere, an upgrade of the currently semi-official relations with Hezbollah and support for the Lebanese Resistance. But the main “weapon” used against the USA would be informational – any attack will be vehemently opposed by the Russian media and the western blogosphere sympathetic to Russia: this is exactly the scenario which the US and NATO fear so much: lead by RT and Sputnik, a US-bashing campaign in the social media. This is a new reality for 2017: we are not used to the notion that Russia also has any type of “soft power”, in this case political soft power, but the fact is that these Russian capabilities are both real and formidable and this is why the Neocons blame both the Brexit and the victory of Trump in the USA on the “Kremlin propaganda machine”. While there is no such “machine”, there is an active blogosphere and non-US media space out there on the Internet that seems powerful enough to at least encourage a type of “rebellion of the serfs” of the Neocon leaders of the Empire. The bottom line is this: the USA has lost its informational monopoly on the planet and the next US President will have to compete, really compete, to convince and rally to his views and agenda.

How will Trump deal with these fundamentally new challenges?

If it is “Trump down” then we will have something very similar to what we had with Obama: a lot of broken promises and lost hopes. In practical term, the USA will then return to what I would call the “consensus policies of the AngloZionist Empire”, which is what we have had since at least Bill Clinton and that every four years becomes “same old, same old, only worse”. If Trump is impeached or murdered we could witness an internal explosion of unrest inside the USA which would absorb most of the time and energy of those who tried to removed him. If Trump proves to be all talk and no action, we will go right back to the situation with Obama: a weak Presidency resulting in various agencies “doing their own thing” without bothering to check what everybody else is doing. This would be a disaster both inside and outside the USA. The most likely outcome would be a rather brutal, sudden and irreversible crash of the AngloZionist Empire. Should a “President Pence” ever happen, the risk of thermonuclear war would immensely soar right back up to what it was before the election. That is by far the worst option for everybody.

“Trump light” is probably the most likely option. Make no mistake, even though I call it “Trump light”, big things could still happen in this case. First and foremost, the US and Russia could decide to deal with each other on the basis of self-interest, common sense, realism and mutual respect. Just that alone would be quite revolutionary and a radical departure from the anti-Russian policies of the USA since Bill Clinton (and, really, since the end of WWII). However, the collaboration between Russia and the USA would not be global, but rather limited to some specific issues. For example, the USA and Russia could agree on joint operations against Daesh in Syria, but the US would not put a stop to the current US/NATO policy of escalation and confrontation against Russia in Europe. Likewise, the Neocon run Congress would prevent any real US-Russian collaboration on the issue of the Ukraine. This option would be far less than what some hardcore Trump supporters are hoping for, but still something infinitely better than Hillary in the White House.

While probably less likely, it is “Trump heavy” which could really usher in a fundamentally new era in international relations. In this case, Russia and the USA would hammer out a number of far reaching deals in which they would jointly take action to solve key issues. The theoretical possibilities are nothing short of amazing.

First and foremost, the USA and Russia could completely overhaul the European security by reviving and modernizing the cornerstone of European security: the Conventional Forces Europe (CFE) treaty. The US and Russia could negotiate a new CFE-III treaty and then use it as a basis to settle all the outstanding security issues in Europe thereby making a war in Europe de-facto impossible. Such a deal would be immensely beneficial to the entire continent and it would mark the beginning of a completely new era for Europe. The only real losers would be the western MIC and a few rabid and otherwise useless states (Latvia, Poland, etc.) whose only valuable export commodity is russophobic paranoia. However, as in every case when war, potential or actual, is replaced by peace, the vast majority of the people of Europe would benefit from such a deal. There would be some tough and delicate negotiations needed to finalize all the details, but I am comfortable that if Russia is given some real, verifiable security guarantees the Kremlin would order a stand-down of Russian forces west of the Urals.

Second, the USA and Russia could jointly take action to stop the civil war in the Ukraine, turn the Ukraine into a federal state with large autonomy granted to all the regions of the Ukraine (not just the Donbass) and declare that a non-aligned and neutral Ukraine will be the cornerstone of the new European security system. If Russia and the USA agree on that, there is nothing the Ukie Nazis or the European could do to prevent it. Frankly, just as irresponsible and stupid teenagers don’t get to participate in adult decisions, the EU and the junta in Kiev should be told that they are now done creating a disaster and that adults have had to step in to stop the nightmare from getting even worse. I bet you that such an approach would get the support of many, if not most, Ukrainians who are now truly fed up with what is going on. Most Europeans (except the political elites, of course) and most Russians would welcome the end of the Ukrainian clusterf*ck (sorry, but that is an accurate descriptor).

The USA has lost a lot of relevance in the Middle-East. Still, they have enough power to actually make a useful contribution to the destruction of Daesh, especially in Iraq. While Russia, Iran and Turkey probably can impose some type of settlement of the war against Syria, having American support, even if just limited, could be immensely useful. CENTCOM is still very powerful and to have a joint Russian-US campaign to crush Daesh could be most beneficial to the entire region. Having the Russians and the Americans finally intelligently and sincerely collaborate with each other would be a very new and fascinating thing to watch and I am pretty sure that the servicemen on both sides would very much welcome this opportunity. The Middle-East does not have to be a zero-sum game, but the next US President will have to understand that the US are now a junior partner of a much bigger coalition. That is the price you pay for having an idiot in the White House for eight years.

Needless to say, if the Americans and the Russians successfully work with each other in Europe, the Ukraine and the Middle-East this would mark a dramatic departure from the “tepid war” which took place between Russia and the USA during the disastrous Obama Presidency.

Alas, there is the rather distressing issue of Trump’s catering to the US Israel Lobby and his stupid and delusional anti-Iranian rhetoric. If Trump keeps up with this nonsense once in the White House he will simply lock himself out from any real deal in the Middle-East. Furthermore, knowing the rabid russophobia of the Neocons, if Trump bows to their demands on Iran, he will probably also have to severely curtail the scope of US-Russian collaboration in Europe, the Ukraine and elsewhere. The same goes for Trump constant China-bashing and provoking: if Trump really and sincerely believes that the USA is in a position to bully China then he is headed for some very painful disillusionments. The time when the USA could bully or intimidate China has long past and all Trump would do is fail against China in the same way Obama failed against Russia.

This, in my opinion, is THE key question of the Trump Presidency: will the USA under Trump accept that the US world hegemony is over once and for all and that from now on the USA will be just one major player amongst other major players? Yes, America, the country, not the Empire, *can* be made “great again” but only if by giving up on the Empire and accepting to become a “regular”, albeit still major, country.

If the US establishment continues to operate on the assumption that “we’re number one”, “the US military is the most powerful in world history” or that the “USA is the indispensable nation” which has to “lead the world” then the Trump Presidency will end up in disaster. Messianic and imperialist ideas have always lead their carriers to catastrophic failure and the USA is no exception. For one thing, the messianic and imperialist mindset is always profoundly delusional as it always favors ideology over reality. And, as the expression goes, if your head is in the sad, your ass is in the air. One of the biggest advantages which Russia and China have over the United States is that they fully realize that they are in many ways weaker than the USA. And yet, paradoxically, that awareness is what makes them stronger at the end of the day.

It should therefore become a top priority of President Trump to ditch the infinitely arrogant attitude so typical of the Neocons and their Trotskyite forefathers (both physical and ideological) and replace it with an acute awareness for the need to only engage in policies commensurate with the actual capabilities of the USA. Fact-based realist politics have to replace the current imperial hubris.

Likewise, it should also become a top priority of President Trump to purge the toxic cabal which has taken over the US elites: just like the main threat to President Putin is the Russian 5th column, I strongly believe that the biggest threat to President Trump will be the Neocon-controlled US 5th column in the USA, especially in Congress, the media, Hollywood and the intelligence community. The Neocons will never gracefully give up or otherwise accept that the American people have shown them to the door. Instead, they will do what they have always done: engage in a vicious hate campaign against Trump himself and against those who dared vote for him. Right now, Trump is clearly trying to appease them by throwing them a bone here and there (Pence, Priebus, Friedman, Iran bashing, etc.) which, I suppose, is fair enough. But if he continues to zig-zag like that once in the White House then he doesn’t stand a chance against them.

Michael Moore has just called for “100 days of resistance” following the Trump inauguration. While Moore himself is more of a (very talented) clown, that kind of initiative can end up becoming trendy, especially amongst the thoroughly zombified US Millennials and the butt hurt pseudo “liberals” who simply cannot and will not accept that Hillary has lost. We should never underestimate the capabilities of the Soros agents to start a color revolution inside the USA.

The US ‘deep state’ is also a powerful and immensely dangerous enemy whose options to oppose a “Trump Heavy” outcome include not only murdering Trump himself, but also creating another 9/11 false flag inside the USA, possibly one involving nuclear materials, and use it as a pretext to impose some kind of state of emergency.

Finally, and as always, there are the banks (in a general sense, including insurances, investment funds, etc, – all the financiers basically) who will fight a re-sovereignization of the United States with everything they got. Normally, I use the expression “re-sovereignization” to describe what Vladimir Putin has tried to do in Russia since 2000: the process of wrestling the real power from a small trans-national elite, return it to the people of Russia and making Russia a truly independent and sovereign country. The same concept, however, also applies to the USA whose people have clearly become the hostages and the serfs of a small elite, actually less than 1%, which is in full control of the real centers of power. A lot of that control, most of it really, is concentrated in various financial institutions which really control all the branches of government in the USA. Some call them “Corporate USA”, or “USA, Inc,” but really we are dealing with financiers and not with corporations who actually make a living by offering goods and services. The real levels of corruption in the USA are probably higher than anywhere on the planet simply because of the immense sums of money involved. The corrupt (literal) parasites who run this money-making machine will do everything in their power to prevent a return to power of the American people and they will never allow “one man – one vote” to replace the current “one dollar – one vote”.

It is ironic, of course, that Trump himself, and his entire entourage, come from these financial elites. But it would be a mistake to simply assume that if a person comes from one specific milieu he will always like and support it. Che Guevara was a medical doctor from a fairly well-off family of Argentinian bourgeois. Oh, I am not comparing Trump to the Che! I am just saying that the theory of class consciousness sometimes has interesting exceptions. At the very least, Trump knows these people very well and he might be the ideal man to break their current monopoly on power.


Making predictions for a year like 2017 when most outcomes depend on what a single person might or might not do is rather futile. At best, this is an exercise is simple statistical luck. Those who will make correct predictions will, of course, look good and those who predictions will not materialize will look bad. But, in reality, they are all currently equally clueless. This is why I chose to speak of risks and opportunities and to look at at least three rough “Trump variants”. Still, there are processes in which Trump and the USA are crucial or, at least, central, but there are others where they matter a whole lot less. So, in conclusion, I will hazard of few guesses and submit them to you with all the imaginable caveats about probably being wrong. This being said, here we go.

First, I think that there is a good chance that Russia, Iran and Turkey will succeed in stopping the war against Syria. The country will remain unitary, but with pretty clear zones of influence and with a government which will include Assad, but also representatives of the opposition. Syria is far too big and too diverse to ever enjoy the type of peace Chechnia enjoys today, so at best we can hope for the kind of semi-peace which Dagestan has endured for the past years. It won’t be perfect, not by a long shot, but the absolute horror will stop.

Second, I think that Poroshenko will lose power this year. The Nazi-occupied Ukraine has survived on a mix of momentum (there was still a lot of wealth left from the Soviet era) and western assistance. Both are now coming to a full halt. Furthermore, there are increasing signs that the Ukrainian armed forces are now so busy simply surviving in the field that they have become basically incapable of meaningful combat operations. Should some particularly deluded nationalist volunteer battalion or political leader order an attack on Novorussia the Ukrainians are likely to suffer a major defeat followed by a liberation of the currently Nazi-occupied territories of the Donetsk and Lugansk regions. And this time around, if that happens, the Novorussian will have the means to liberate Mariupol and hold on to it without being cut-off from the Donbass by a Ukrainian flanking counter-attack. Finally, if Poroshenko is replaced by even more lunatic elements Russia might decide to recognize the independence of the Lugansk and Donetsk Republics which, in turn, would inevitably result in a referendum in these republics to join Russia. EU politicians will have a fit, Poland and Estonia will declare a Russian invasion imminent, but Russia will simply ignore them all. As for Trump, he is most unlikely to do much about this either, especially considering that the Ukie Nazis were 100% behind Hillary and dismissed him as a total joke. The last and only chance the “Independent Banderastan” has to avoid this outcome is to finally fully and totally implement the Minsk-2 Agreement, to basically self-dissolve. Will the crazies in Kiev have the wisdom to understand that? I very much doubt it. But who knows, maybe God will take pity on the people of the Ukraine and give them the strength to get rid of the Banderite rot which has brought so much misery upon them.

That leaves me with one area of great concern to me: Latin America.

This has not often been noticed, by Latin American is the one realm of US foreign policy where Obama has been rather successful, at least if you support the subjugation of Latin American by the USA: Castro is gone, Chavez is gone, possibly murdered, Christina Kirchner is gone, President Dilma Rousseff has been overthrown in a parliamentary coup and it appears that the same fate will now befall Nicholas Maduro. Very significantly, Cuba has agreed to a deal which will give the USA a great deal more leverage over the future of the island-state. True, Evo Morales, Rafael Correa and Daniel Ortega are still in power, but the undeniable fact that the Latin American political heavyweights have fallen. Will Trump change the US policy towards Latin America? I very much doubt that, if only because “if it ain’t broke – don’t fix it”. And from an US imperialist point of view, the current policy ain’t broke at all, it is rather a success. I simply see no reason why Trump would decide to allow Latin American to be free and sovereign thereby reversing the almost 200 year old Monroe Doctrine. Freedom for Latin America will come at the end of a long struggle no matter who is in the White House.

So no, life in 2017 will be a far cry from life in a perfect world, but there is a better than average chance that 2017 might see some very significant and much needed improvement over the frankly disastrous past years. There is still hope that Trump might deliver and if he does, he might become on of the best US Presidents in many, many years. Whether Trump delivers or not, the world will further move away from unipolarity to multipolarity and that is an immensely desirable evolution. All in all, and for the first time in decades, I feel rather optimistic. This is such a weird and unnatural feeling for me that I almost feel guilty about it. But sometimes guilty enjoyment is also great fun!

• Category: Foreign Policy • Tags: Donald Trump, Middle East, Russia 
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  1. Andrei Martyanov [AKA "SmoothieX12"] says: • Website

    Good piece, in general. I hope I am wrong, but Trump-light seems like a more probable outcome.

  2. Andevro says:

    A very thoughtful article and analysis. Thank you. I very much appreciate the guarded optimism in the end and pray that some of your wishes come to fruition….yes, I have a smile on my face at the prospect of some normalcy in the US. The people deserve it.

  3. Beckow says:

    Great summary of the ‘big picture’. The details – as always – will be very different. Europe is in a state of extreme volatility – any combination of random events, even accidents, can trigger massive changes. EU has some of the lowest quality leaders in decades (if not centuries) – they are run by a bunch of earnest high-school assistant principals, and the barbarians took over the gym. This is heading towards some serious instability.

    The key will be whether Trump (light, heavy, down or up) manages to get a strong economic recovery in US. If he does, if growth is 3-4% in real terms, markets are up, incomes are growing, that will change the world dynamic more than anything else – more than Neocons’ resistance, Poroshenko, Assad or Merkel. If US gets into an economic boom, it will change everything.

    I would call it the Trump-Up scenario: heavy swing by all working-middle classes to Trump, almost total isolation of ‘liberal’ media and academia groups, and a new generation coming out of high school that despises the ‘millennial’ and pre-millennial identity obsessions. The most conservative segment of the American society – the most normal people – are the quiet majorities of high-schoolers and middle-schoolers who see Trump as a sign of hope. If Trump delivers, they will go for him in a big way. And that will change everything. If he fails – the economy stays as is – it is a long way down.

  4. martino says:

    saker you are wrong in all. EEUU will continue with all their wars; Trump will not change anithing.

  5. bluedog says:

    I rather doubt if Trump himself knows where we are headed, with his talk of bringing back the jobs to make America great again, an America with its decayed plants and hollowed out manufacturing sector, loss of well trained workers and that fails to even consider the corruption in the financial arena which he yet has to address,no its nice to dream about the good old days when America was great but those days are long gone and won’t be coming back….

  6. Anonymous [AKA "Antonym"] says:

    No, Russia is the most powerful country on earth because of two things: Russia openly rejects and denounces the worldwide political, economic and ideological system the USA has imposed upon our planet since WWII and because Vladimir Putin enjoys the rock-solid support of about 80%+ of the Russian population.

    “Russia is the most powerful country on Earth because it’s the enemy of a country which runs the entire world”

    • Replies: @Thales the Milesian
  7. Anon • Disclaimer says:

    Here’s wishing Russians aren’t this messed up.

    • Replies: @FarAwayObserver
  8. All in all, another good one from the Saker!

    If Trump proves to be all talk and no action, we will go right back to the situation with Obama: a weak Presidency resulting in various agencies “doing their own thing” without bothering to check what everybody else is doing. This would be a disaster both inside and outside the USA. The most likely outcome would be a rather brutal, sudden and irreversible crash of the AngloZionist Empire.

    That’s the thing that’s killing the AZ Empire: lack of a fast, firm, effective chain of command. This is why traditional empires always had an emperor (or at least a shogun): to make sure that the buck stopped somewhere, and that there would be some policy coherence and continuity.

    “Trump light” is probably the most likely option … However, the collaboration between Russia and the USA would not be global, but rather limited to some specific issues.

    It would also be largely reversible once Trump left office, so the Russians would not go giving away anything they couldn’t take back in 2020 or 2024, if need be. Trump Light, in that case, might end up being only temporary, just like détente was in the seventies.

    That is the price you pay for having an idiot in the White House for eight years.

    More like 16 years! No wait–make that 24.

    Yes, America, the country, not the Empire, *can* be made “great again” but only if by giving up on the Empire and accepting to become a “regular”, albeit still major, country.

    I really wish that would happen, but I am doubtful. I don’t think that’s actually what Trump’s after. He probably just wants a new balance-of-power arrangement.

    The US ‘deep state’ is also a powerful and immensely dangerous enemy whose options to oppose a “Trump Heavy” outcome include not only murdering Trump himself, but also creating another 9/11 false flag inside the USA, possibly one involving nuclear materials, and use it as a pretext to impose some kind of state of emergency.

    There’s one more possibility you overlooked, Saker: a false-flag overseas; for example, around Kalliningrad. Would Trump take the bait? I’m not sure, but I fear he might.

    The real levels of corruption in the USA are probably higher than anywhere on the planet simply because of the immense sums of money involved.

    Another point that must be made about corruption in America is that, as Michael Kinsley once pointed out, most of it is perfectly legal! It’s beneficiaries can simply label it as a kind of public/private ‘partnership’ or ‘synergy’.

  9. If Trump is not murdered he will open negotiations (make a deal) with China and Russia. That’s why the neocons and war pigs hate him. His opening position will be something like EVERYTHING YOU HAVE IS BELONGING TO ME! From there he will grudgingly give ground until there is a meeting of the minds. Once agreement is reached Trump will do the unthinkable. HE WILL ACTUALLY HONOR THE FUCKING AGREEMENT! The three amigos can finally give peace a chance.

    If Trump is martyred chaos will ensue that will not be confined to the “homeland”.

    • Replies: @animalogic
  10. Perhaps Trump is operating at a higher level than all his opponents, and supporters like me. Perhaps his thinking operates so far ahead of ALL of us that we are are only forming opinions on the disappearing imprints he left long behind…in the dust rapidly blowing away. We argue about things that have long passed consideration and importance

    Perhaps Trump has a strategic plan in his head to not only advance American military power, but to restore the West to intellectual and moral supremacy. And in so doing, to also advance the world’s populations. Perhaps he wants to tap into the human potential for civilizational progress.

    Suppose after inauguration, Trump proposes a summit of just himself, Xi and Putin? Europe will be shocked into a recognition that they are at present insignificant, and if not self-reformed, will become irrelevant.

    • Replies: @bluedog
    , @Anonymous
  11. Sean says:

    Russia is now the most powerful country on the planet

    Russia wants to make a one with China. Great idea, they can get access to Chinese technology.

  12. bluedog says:
    @Rick Johnson

    The very last thing Trump should do is advance our military power, for its always led to one war after another, Korea Nam Desert Storm Bosnia and young Bush’s wars which are still going on,wars for the most part where we had no dog in the fight but were doing some other countries bidding ,after all as the one mouth piece said why have this wonderful military if you don’t use it..

  13. Anonymous • Disclaimer says:

    Under the “Trump heavy” scenario you are assuming that Trump would welcome Russian involvement in Europe. Yet Trump has never openly said so (he has only spoken of co-operation regarding Daesh).

    In fact, Trump has said very little about Europe and while if we want to be conservative, we can admit that there has been some disdain or contempt in Trump towards Europeans, the truth is that he has never openly said that he wants to change the security architecture of Europe (even less so, to somehow involve Russia in some new Yalta like pact). What he did say was that the population of Crimea wanted to join Russia – this doesn’t mean that all of Ukraine should come under Russian influence or even stay “neutral” (impossible). It doesn’t even mean that Donbass could become independent. What he said was “He (Putin) is not going in there… he is there in a certain way”. What this means, is that yes there is a hybrid war that Russia is carrying out in Eastern Ukraine, but that under Trump’s presidency “he (Putin) is not going there” namely Trump will not allow Putin to go any further. This is my translation of it (this is something that the Western media has also ignored and simply focused on the Putin friendly compliments instead).

    Trump has not uttered a single peep about the anti-missile shield in Europe.

    In the last press conference, he was asked whether Obama overdid with the latest “sanctions” (35 diplomats, etc), and Trump said – “no, I don’t think he did”. None of the journalists asked him to elaborate.

    Saker is assuming that Trump is against America’s presence in Europe, including Poland. We don’t know that and that may not be the case. Even if he will be lying about the US commitments in the future, it doesn’t mean the US will side with Russia over European security. Btw, Germany would hate that sort of a development. And so would the Scandinavians.

  14. Anonymous • Disclaimer says:

    I am comfortable that if Russia is given some real, verifiable security guarantees the Kremlin would order a stand-down of Russian forces west of the Urals.

    You mean they will pull away the 300 000 troops from their Western border? Why would they do that? For the abandonment of the missile shield? Where is the guarantee that, if pulled back, those troops will not be put back there in the future?

  15. Anonymous • Disclaimer says:

    There are some structural issues with the US economy. For instance, underemployment (tons of part time jobs, tons of 10\$ an hour jobs). And the high rents and low home ownership rates.

    • Replies: @Beckow
  16. Anonymous • Disclaimer says:
    @Rick Johnson

    That’s just wish full thinking.

    There comes a point where it’s time to call a spade a spade.

    I’ve heard over and over again from Trump supporters about how Trump is just playing 4d chess and putting neocons and Goldman types in his administration is all just strategy to fake out the establishment.

    But at the end of the day Trump has not drained the swamp at all and looks more incompetent than some master level genius who is playing chess 100 moves into the future.

    I think the only people who seem to advocate this view are people who are desperate and hope that a Trump hail Mary will somehow make everything right again. Might as well play the lotto.

    • Agree: jacques sheete
  17. Anonymous • Disclaimer says:

    I was really hopefully of Trump, but he has been a major let down.

    Think of what Trump will be dealing with.

    Probable escalation with Iran to please Isreal. Might lead to actual war.

    Trump trying to back down N Korea. Nothing dangerous there I suppose.

    Escalation with China. War is doubfull, but the people Trump appointed in the military don’t seem to mind a shooting war with China, so who knows.

    His own CIA trying to goad the US and Russia into as shooting war.

    A trade war, not only with China and Mexico but possibly the world.

    A major recession that you know is coming.

    The possible collapse of Mexico before the wall is built.

    Liberals and BLM types wreaking havoc everywhere.

    Muslims going crazy when Isreal moves the capital to Jerusalem. Backed fully by Trump of course. Expect more attacks domestically, of the real and false flag variety.

    Trump has just been really sloppy here. A more competent leader would not pick fights with others and try to fix everything at once while there was so much division and danger at home.

    • Replies: @Authenticjazzman
  18. @Anonymous

    ” Liberals and BLM types are wreaking havoc everywhere”

    So are you suggesting between the lines that the way to remedy the situation is to give in to the crazies ( Liberals), or precisely just what is your solution to the current malaise?

    Authenticjazzman, “Mensa” society member of forty-plus years and pro jazz artist

    • Replies: @animalogic
  19. Sean says:

    If Trump does what he says in relation to making Europe pay for its own defence, it will result in the rearmament of Germany, with nukes. Maybe not brownshirts for the Germans, but certainly brown trouser time for Russia.

    • Replies: @Anonymous
  20. Beckow says:

    Yes, there are huge structural issues w US economy. But the solution is actually very simple – as it has been for hundreds of years:
    – reduce labor supply by restricting-managing immigration
    – increase labor demand by infrastructure spending, and putting \$ in consumers’ pockets
    – allow incomes to rise based on a tight job market – have a bit of inflation
    – everything else (or almost everything) gets better or is fixed: debts are devalued, budgets gets better, people have \$ and spend it…. Trump wins big in 2020 and country changes.

    The losers in this are financial and corporate (and some small business) elites and the Third World mass migration beneficiaries – they will do anything to prevent this, thus the hysteria we see today….

  21. Anonymous • Disclaimer says:

    Russians fear this.

    But what do you expect Germany et al to do in such a scenario? Of course, they’re gonna arm themselves.

    • Replies: @Skeptikal
  22. I think Trump will be the “Red Queen” President since he can’t recognize what the problem is. He will be as busy as can be and nothing meaningful will change. Some failures will get worse, some will get better, and if he’s lucky, no new ones will develop.

    Like his predecessors, he is stupid enough to think that government can fix government. No out of the box thinking there.

  23. Seraphim says:

    There have been Cassandra’s voices aspersing cold water on the minds overheated by Trump’s victory:

    “The Dangerous Deception Called The Trump Presidency”, by F. William Engdahl, 25.11.2016

    “The project called the Trump Presidency has just two months before its formal beginning. Yet already the hopes and fantasies of much of the world are making him into something and someone Donald Trump most definitely is not. Donald Trump is yet another project of the same boring old patriarchs who try again and again to create a one world order that they control absolutely, a New World Order that one close Trump backer once referred to as universal fascism. Ignore the sometimes fine rhetoric in some of his speeches. Talk is cheap. If we consider rather the agenda that’s taking form even in these very early days of cabinet naming, we can see that Donald Trump is the same agenda of war and global empire as Obama, as Bush before him, as Bill Clinton and Clinton’s “tutor”, George H.W. Bush before him. There is no good side to what the world is about to experience with President Trump”.

    Cassandra relapsed:

    “Is Trump the Back Door Man for Henry A. Kissinger & Co?”, by F. William Engdahl, 09.01.2017

    “What emerges is not pretty and, sadly, more than confirms my earlier piece on the Trump Deception.
    However, all this misses in my view one essential component, namely the shadowy role of former Secretary of State Henry A. Kissinger, who is emerging as the unofficial and key foreign policy adviser of the Trump Administration. If we follow Kissinger’s tracks in recent months we find a highly interesting series of meetings….
    With Kissinger now in a unique relationship with President-elect Trump as shadow foreign policy adviser, with Kissinger allies Tillerson as Secretary of State and Mattis as Secretary of Defense, it is beginning to appear that the heavy hand of Kissinger and his version of British Balance of Power political manipulations is about to target China, as well as Iran, and to try to use Putin and Russia to destroy the genuine possibility of a counterweight to Western One World delusions, by fostering mistrust and bad blood between China and Russia and Iran.
    There is simply too much coincidence in the recent emergence of the Kissinger–world statesman of peace–to not think that in truth, from the outset, Donald Trump was designed to be Henry A. Kissinger’s Back Door Man, in order to re-tilt global geopolitics back to a US leading role as Domina über Alles.”

    I doubt that the Russians would be duped by their blandishments. I am inclined to interpret the deployment of Russian batteries of anti-ship missiles in the Kuril Islands as a warning signal for those who entertain the illusion that Russia would abandon China if enough carrots are dangled before her nose (including Japanese ones).

  24. Winston says:

    Europe is aging;Africa’s population is booming and it is stone’s throw from Europe. Europe needs to handle aging problem at home and to help Africa develop so African youth do not take boat rides to Europe for which they are eminently unqualified for working in.

    US as is will not last another generation since debt load too cumbersome and next generation is a majority of poor people getting the lousy education deemed the lot worthy for poor people. Already over reliance on foreigners for innovation. And yet Germany still dominates US in innovation!

    Trump cannot get jobs for the unemployed in manufacturing industries. What is not outsourced will be replaced by robots and AI! The companies are under pressure of shareholder value, employees in America are an “unaffordable”cost for them! Meanwhile Trump Admin packed with financial industry types!

    “Layoffs “have been pretty constant over the years, and it seems to happen no matter what the economy is doing,” says Wayne F. Cascio, a global leadership professor at the University of Colorado Denver who has studied layoffs for decades. “When the economy is down, it’s always the argument that we’ve got to cut costs, and when it’s doing well we often hear we need to improve profitability, because it’s the best time to do it. The tune hasn’t changed.”

  25. @WorkingClass

    Trump wishes to shift away from crude confrontation with Russia….& transfer all that animus to China ?
    So, now we have talk from Trump nominees of confronting China in the Sth China Sea. This is near equivalent with Clinton’s (idiotic) no-fly-zones in Syria.
    We’ll, I’m worried…

    • Replies: @WorkingClass
    , @Randal
  26. @Authenticjazzman

    I think he wants to leave solutions to the long time Mensa members: (it goes without saying that the commenter was NOT “suggesting” such– he was noting a list of problems, which, I would SUGGEST, he has a perfect right to do). Thankyou.

  27. The real China – Russia integration is just about to begin. What makes their alliance strong at the moment, is the antagonism to unipolar World dominated by US. Other members of Shanghai Organisation and those who looking forward to join it have quite a comfortable status because they are kind of protected by Russia against Chinese dominance. Russia needs all of them for the same purpose. If India will be integrated too – it will make the alliance even more stable. It is different from the Western alliance where the national governments are kind of subordinated to the multinational corporations with the financial elites on the top.

  28. @Beckow

    The jobs will go to nonwhite legal immigrants and their US born nonwhite children. The economic and racial dispossession of The Historic Native Born White American Working Class will continue apace.

    POTUS Trump will not shut Asian Legal Immigration down to 0. POTUS Trump will crack and pave America over in his attemp to make everyone happy…Nature will be fracked…poisoned….and paved over….

    • Replies: @Beckow
    , @bluedog
  29. @animalogic

    You should be worried. You should also be grateful that Hillary is not President Elect.

  30. Anonymous [AKA "Blah blah123456"] says: • Website

    Will this appear?

  31. Beckow says:
    @War for Blair Mountain

    “The jobs will go to nonwhite legal immigrants and their US born nonwhite children”

    Probably. I can see the futility in it since the critical mass of massive ‘foothold’ migration has already happened. There are 1.5 billion people in South Asia, hundreds of millions in Latin America, China, Indonesia, Africa, etc… – there is almost no way to stop tens of millions of them from coming. It can be slowed down, but your point is unfortunately probably true.

    But what was the alternative?

  32. Skeptikal says:

    “Russians fear this.”

    Maybe that’s why it might have been a good idea to encourage the kind of structural economic integration of Russia and Germany that Russia and China are developing.
    Instead of forcing the Germans to toe outsanctions line, which they probably didn’t have much choice but to do. But who knows.

    It is something every child should be taught early:
    Don’t get involved in other people’s fights. Stay out of it.
    So, Germany is fighting the USA fight.
    The USA is fighting Israel’s fight.

    It is all very unhealthy and increases the circle of anxiety and hostility and the need to circle more and more wagons.

    • Replies: @RobinG
    , @Sean
  33. Randal says:

    So, now we have talk from Trump nominees of confronting China in the Sth China Sea. This is near equivalent with Clinton’s (idiotic) no-fly-zones in Syria.

    This was exactly my thought when I heard Tillerson reported as saying in his confirmation hearings that China should be denied access to its islands in the SCS. That’s every bit as much a virtual declaration of war as the Clinton team’s no fly zone in Syria, and possibly even more stupid (incredible as that might seem).

    Then again, when people are forced to give placatory answers to, and perform to seek the approval of, poisonous monkeys like Rubio, McCain and Graham in order to gain the offices to which they have been appointed, a lot of nonsense is inevitable. We have to wait and see how much of this kind of idiocy actually informs the Trump team’s policies before passing judgement, imo.

    • Agree: reiner Tor
  34. RobinG says:

    “…it might have been a good idea to encourage the kind of structural economic integration of Russia and Germany that Russia and China are developing.”

    That’s akin to what Russia proposed for Ukraine – bridge between Russia and EU – but the US refused, wanted all or nothing.

  35. @Beckow

    Secession….reclamation….mass expulsion….

    It all starts with turning off NFL “WHAT A STUD!!!” NEGRO BALL…..Then a withdrawal of consent to be governed by Jared Kushner…..Greater China…Greater India…Greater Mexico…Greater Korea…..Greater Persia…..

  36. Sean says:

    Accurate scholarship can
    Unearth the whole offence
    From Luther until now
    That has driven a culture mad,
    Find what occurred at Linz,
    What huge imago made
    A psychopathic God:
    I and the public know
    What all schoolchildren learn,
    Those to whom evil is done
    Do evil in return.

    W. H. Auden’s poem, “September 1, 1939”:

    • Replies: @Anonymous
    , @5371
  37. bluedog says:
    @War for Blair Mountain

    Your probably right and when I see him back peddling on this item and that item, the only thing that comes to mind is that once one starts to back peddle that sooner or later he will land on his ass, and that was the main reason that in 60 years of voting, I stayed home on election day and will no longer play the dog and pony show known as the U.S. election scam…

  38. Anonymous • Disclaimer says:

    who is the psychopathic god du jour?

    • Replies: @Seraphim
    , @Sean
  39. Sean says:

    The current spear of destiny manifestation is the newish idea of various technological singularities, and the old one of global cooperation between existing states to crush non state forces like ISIS and prevent destruction of the environment exemplified by (same as it ever was): Germany. If the US does not stop coddling and protecting them while they push on in their their pacifist/antinuclear and racial craziness (mirror image of the Third Reich) they will destroy Europe.

    If the US will withdraw from Europe and tell Germany it has to build a lot of tanks, nuke up, and really defend itself, tension maybe even a conventional war with Germany against Russia will follow (Russia on the side of Britain against Germany of course). Sounds bad, but better than the alternative I see closing in fast

  40. Art says:

    Some call them “Corporate USA”, or “USA, Inc,” but really we are dealing with financiers and not with corporations who actually make a living by offering goods and services. The real levels of corruption in the USA are probably higher than anywhere on the planet simply because of the immense sums of money involved. The corrupt (literal) parasites who run this money-making machine will do everything in their power to prevent a return to power of the American people and they will never allow “one man – one vote” to replace the current “one dollar – one vote”.

    Greed is running the world. Greed has conquered democracy. The Rothschild central banking cartels of this world control the Western economies.

    They now have so much money that they cannot lend it all out at a profit (zero interest rates). They are now buying up the great corporations of the world and going global with them. They are cannibalizing successful countries corporations and moving them to cheap labor countries. All this is true. They have no loyalty – they care about nobody – they have no morals – they only know greed.

    Trump campaigned against this situation – whether he is successful, will depend on his stopping this greed grab of economic power.

  41. Anonymous • Disclaimer says:

    That’s akin to what Russia proposed for Ukraine – bridge between Russia and EU – but the US refused, wanted all or nothing.

    This “bridge” thing gets mentioned all the time but nobody bothers explaining in detail what it really means. The truth is that every country has its own interests. What’s in it for Ukraine for being a “bridge”?

    • Replies: @Philip Owen
    , @Skeptikal
  42. Anonymous • Disclaimer says:

    .Then a withdrawal of consent to be governed by Jared Kushner…..

    It’s sounds so scary when you put it that way – governed by Jared Kushner. I wouldn’t wanna be. By any oligarch.

  43. Sakar–an impressive exploration.

    What gives much unease is those elements within our government, military, and corporatocracy who care not a whit for American lives/people/country, therefore, by extrapolation, not a whit about anyone/anything else (as witnessed in Aleppo) as long as their desires/pockets are filled.

    From where did this animal arise?

    I refer specifically to the infamous October 2013 incident in which Obama fired four top military personnel for not enacting the false flag event in Charleston Harbor by detonating a nuclear device well off the coast in the Atlantic rather than the harbor. The bomb left Dyess Air Force Base heading to the Eastern Seaboard with no paper trail.

    From where did this sick animal arise?

    Back then, foolish Sen. Graham warned “that a lack of military action in Syria could result in a nuclear ‘bombing’ in Charleston, South Carolina….” This kind of utter drool, wherein language and thought becomes so unbalanced that logic flees and rational discourse mute, continues today with fake news/Putin “hacked” the election ad nauseum.

    I do like Auden…and Dylan Thomas, too.

    Shall I let pray the shadow of a sound
    Or sow my salt seed
    In the least valley of sackcloth to mourn

    The majesty and burning of the child’s death.
    I shall not murder
    The mankind of her going with a grave truth
    Nor blaspheme down the stations of the breath
    With any further
    Elegy of innocence and youth.

    Deep with the first dead lies London’s daughter,
    Robed in the long friends,
    The grains beyond age, the dark veins of her mother,
    Secret by the unmourning water
    Of the riding Thames.
    After the first death, there is no other.

  44. joe webb says:

    lots of things to think about. There appears to be a good chance that impeachment of Trump will be tried, and that will cripple the US for awhile, with who knows what effects.

    Saker’s obsessive cowboys and indians, or nazis and communists simplistic view of Ukraine, leads me to think what else in his mental world is likewise a problem.?

    His often stated anti “anglo-zionist” position leads him to overestimate and underestimate certain factors, like for example the mammoth strength of the US and our 20 trillion dollar GDP, and our war machine. Also, Iran’s relative strength is not much when it comes to Israel’s nuke capacity, etc.

    HIs animus against the US always shows up and queers objectivity. Also, Trump’b biggest problem in foreign affairs is his claim to end the ME wars while going on and on about ISIS as well as having claimed to be a neutral arbiter with Israel and Palestine. He appears to be joining the Amen Corner of Pat Buchanan’s coinage.

    Finally, while there is something to what the Saker says about China and Russia, it is probably overstated because the Saker refuses Race. He is a Christian who refuses race inequality. This is enough to queer everything he says about Russia/China affairs. No white country will ever combine with China in a deep way. Russia and China fought a war way back about 1965 or so as I recall, and Russia backed Vietnam against China, etc.

    The final determinant in all politics these days since the old ideological wars are over (and only Whites have fought ideological wars recently as in WW two) is Race. The religious wars of the ME will continue but who cares? (those wars that do not include Israel). Russia , Europe and the US will have zero concern about religion as such, except as it relates to other ME issues. The real joker is Saudi Arabia with its insanity much worse than any other Arab State, and maybe even Israel.

    The current semi-religious war against the Arabs by the US is a crusade, and their war against us is likewise a crusade. Only Protestant America allows itself to be run around by the jews. Am I contradicting myself? Sort of, but if you think about a world without Israel, none of the ME wars that include the US would be happening…. the various Arab states could be duking it out with zero importance to Europe and the US. (Oil is cheap all over the world, and will remain so for decades if not centuries.)

    Thus, the current wars for Israel, are not fundamentally religious, they are political because of the existence of the state of Israel.

    Again the passionate attachment that the Saker has to his Anglo-Zionist perseveration distorts his views a lot.

    Joe Webb

    • Agree: utu
    • Replies: @bluedog
  45. bluedog says:
    @joe webb

    Hmm since when have we had a \$20 trillion dollar GDP or did you confuse that with our debt (I suppose you do include in that all the slums that’s been created since 1980) and it seems a mammoth military that’s as impotent as an 80 year old man, a military that couldn’t beat any third world countries like Korea Nam Afghanistan Iraq,its seems somewhere that I read Iraq’s population was about the same as State of Kentucky..Other than that you do make a few points…

    • Replies: @joe webb
  46. Art says:

    Any truth to this? Or fake news? ??????

    Ten Aircraft Carriers Aligned in a Row — Paul Craig Roberts

    According to what I have been told by former(?) intelligence officers, the (all) aircraft carriers are in dock so that their copper wiring can be replaced by fiber optics. Apparently, the Russians have the capability to shut down the operating systems of our ships and aircraft that are copper wired. In behalf of this conclusion, there were news reports that a missile ship Washington sent to impress the Russian naval base in Crimea had all its systems shut down by the overflight of one Russian jet. According to another news report, two Israeli US jet fighters were sent to express disobedience to Russia’s controlled airspace in Syria. The Russians asked the Israelis to leave, and when they did not, the Russians shut down the fire control and communication systems of their aircraft.

    Peace — Art

  47. joe webb says:

    thanks, you are right, the official, per a search, is slightly over 18 trillion.JW

  48. joe webb says:

    By the way, my criticisms of various authors here is tolerated by apparently western white authors. But Karlin, a Turkish apparent genotype (from his phenotypic appearance) has banned me from his columns.

    I guess for generally talking about Oriental Despotism, which includes possibly him. A banning which proves my assertions more or less.

    By the way his self portrait on his recent column (on what I consider pretty silly futurism ) reminds me of Kokoscha (sp?) and features a slimmed down and whiter kind of person than the other modestly presented photos of himself earlier.

    Free Speech not one of the traits of Asian Despots.

    Joe Webb

    • Replies: @Anatoly Karlin
  49. Saker, you are getting sloppy. You’re starting to come across like someone who believes the propaganda he’s agreed to rehash and who spends too much time in the company of his targets and inferiors.
    If your intent is to expand the understanding of Americans so that hubris doesn’t get us all mutually exterminated – a laudable goal if it is your goal – I recommend a self imposed moratorium on opinion pieces and geo-military commentary. Run a six month series on “Seriously guys: this is what Putin actually just said about that, he is kind of important… Maybe you should know”.

    That would be a service. We would thank you for that service, maybe give you a medal.

    Otherwise just to pick one hole, the great Russo-Chinese military alliance and Chinese infantry who can be trusted to act on behalf of Russia, and who may even be hosted across Russian soil.

    ROTFLMAO. That is some good vodka they are serving up my friend! Where do you get some of that?

    • Replies: @Skeptikal
  50. annamaria says:

    The US foreign policy’ dirty linen on view:
    “… while Washington had launched the operation known as the «Arab Spring» in order to overthrow the secular Arab régimes for the benefit of the Muslim Brotherhood, it had left its allies to assume the second war against Syria on their own, as from July 2012. … [The allies] pursued their own objectives — recolonisation for France and the United Kingdom, theft of gas reserves for Qatar, expansion of Wahhabism and revenge for the Lebanese civil war for Saudi Arabia, annexation of the North of the country for Turkey on the Cypriot model, etc…. … over the last four years, the jihadists have been commanded, armed and coordinated by NATO Allied LandCom (ground forces command) based in Izmir (Turkey).”

    Today we witness the boomerang of the EU interventions in the Middle East (“recolonisation for France and the United Kingdom”) that resulted in the actual colonization of the EU by the refugees AND by the low-IQ sub-saharan migrants. The EU/UK imbeciles that planned a “little victorious war” in the Middle East have ended up with saddling the EU population with the gift of uncontrolled migration of foreigners which do not have European cultural DNA in their blood.

    “Washington hoped for the victory of Daesh over the Republic [Syria]. Until now — on the basis of the report by General Michael Flynn on 12 August 2012 and the article by Robin Wright in the New York Times on 28 Septembre 2013 — we had understood that the Pentagon intended to create a «Sunnistan» straddling Syria and Iraq, in order to cut the «Silk Road». However the plan went much further than that. Probably, Daesh was to take Damascus, and then be chased out by Tel-Aviv (in other words, they would be pushed back to the «Sunnistan» which had been allotted to them). Syria would then be shared between Israel in the South, Daesh in the East, and Turkey in the North.”
    In short, “support the troop” in the “war on terror,” the US State Dept. ways, where the major war profiteers (many are Israel-firsters) are in charge.

    • Replies: @Seraphim
  51. @Art

    US electronic equipment for military has been Tempested (shielded against electromagnetic attack) since the early 1980’s. There shouldn’t be much unsecured equipment, even on an old carrier. I did notice that the official Russian announcement about the attack on the Donald Cook discussed modifying an algorithim which would have been a one off thing to a single system if it happened.

  52. @Anonymous

    Nothing. And Ukraine as a bridge between Russia and the EU was exactly what Russia didn’t want. Putin personally expressed horror that EU goods might enter Russia across such a bridge.

    • Replies: @annamaria
  53. Seraphim says:

    You should have probably add Sinai, an essential objective of the Oded Yinon plan.

  54. annamaria says:
    @Philip Owen

    “Putin personally expressed horror that EU goods might enter Russia…”

    You mean, the US bastards (bought by clever Putin) have imposed the economic sanctions on Russia in order to alleviate Putin”s “personal horror” against trading with EU? Even Atlantic Council cannot compete with your explanation; they should invite you to join their expert.

    • Replies: @Philip Owen
  55. @joe webb

    I have no problem with your “criticism,” since it is more amusing to me than anything else – at least, on the rare occasion that you manage to eke out a coherent sentence or two (for instance, your theories on the Turanid origins of AK). No, my problem is that hosting your “insights” is not a good use of my blog comments’ real estate, since you are not only exceedingly stupid but also very verbose. Please, pick one or the other – that is, long clever comments, or short stupid ones – but not both. And then I might approve them.

  56. Skeptikal says:

    ““Seriously guys: this is what Putin actually just said about that, ”

    The Saker runs lots of such items at the Vineyard of the Saker website/blog.
    Including quite a few videos of Putin’s speeches.
    With English subtitles.

    Instead of a medal, why not support the Saker’s blog with a donation, so even more info can be made available in translation?
    Do you think others are obliged to provide you with info for free?

    • Replies: @mcohen
  57. Skeptikal says:

    “This “bridge” thing gets mentioned all the time but nobody bothers explaining in detail what it really means. The truth is that every country has its own interests. What’s in it for Ukraine for being a “bridge”?”

    Ukraine has historically profited from being a bridge in the sense that the biggest gas pipelines from Russia to Europe run through Ukraine. See

    The existence of these lines has not only, obviously, facilitated Ukraine’s getting its own indispensable supply of gas at a reasonable price, but has offered the Ukrainians a troll-like opportunity to steal the gas meant for other countries. When one considers that the gas is needed not just for heating but also to run factories and other industries, one could say that Ukraine has indeed profited from being positioned in a “bridge” location between Russia and Europe.

    To rid itself of this problem of gas pilfering and other constant aggravation from Ukrainian oligarchs and political punters and failure to pay bills etc.—to bypass Ukraine—is one of the main reasons Russia sank billions into the Nordstream and wants to pursue the South Stream in whatever way it can.

  58. mcohen says:

    With pay to post one has to wonder who pays.
    There is a railway being built from Iran to the ukraine.
    Ukraine has wheat…..iran has oil.and Russia has competition
    2017 will see a weakened Russia from loss of oil and gas revenues
    Trump will control both ends via a military/business deal buildup.more troops moving fom Germany to Poland then ukraine.
    Syria was not worth the effort.they do futures in Chicago…..from way back

  59. Skeptikal says:

    “With pay to post one has to wonder who pays.”

    Who said anything about “pay to post”?
    The point of the rest of the post, too.

    • Replies: @mcohen
  60. @annamaria

    No. Russia and Putin himself did not trust Ukrainians with whom they proposed to share a Customs Union to file correct Certificates of Origin. They feared, probably rightly, that the Ukrainians would add very modest processing (relabelling) and export high quality low cost EU goods into Russia which would overwhelm Russian industry. This is deplorably protectionist but that was and is Russian policy. The biggest worry was food which might be lightly processed in Ukraine en route to Russia. The Atlantic Council is more concerned with forming a useful narrative than accurately describing events. I have clients who want the truth as closely as it can be told. No one has it all.

    Your point about US bastards is confusing. Read Wikileaks which has the US Embassy cables before and during the 2004 Orange Revolution. The worst the US did was pay for an exit poll. In the same election Putin came to Ukraine and spoke in support of his preferred candidate. Who do you think was interfering the most? Also listen to transcripts of Victoria Nuland’s intercepted telephone call. She is suggesting the candidate the US should back for President. Her suggested action to support this candidate is to bring John Kerry over to make a speech. Such partisanship in another country’s elections is bad manners (Putin’s in 2004 was too) but it is hardly plotting a coup. You should look to internal forces for that. Foreigners were riding the waves not making them.

    • Replies: @annamaria
  61. annamaria says:
    @Philip Owen

    Should we also assume that you have never heard about Cuban missile crisis and the geographic (principal) factor of the crisis?

  62. mcohen says:

    Blogs have to pay to post.just my theory.unz has a wide audience.

    Russia grabbed the south eastern part of the ukraine.the wheat fields.iran has started building a railway line to the ukraine through Georgia.that is the shite silk road with Russian help
    Syria was the sunni one but Russia blocked it with iranian and hezb help.
    American forces moving to Poland and linking up with the Ukrainian army forcing Russia to retreat will open up a competitive market instead of reliance on Russian oil and gas for ukraine and Europe.
    That will in turn lead to more pressure on assad and hezb as the gulf arabs fight for market share.
    With Yemen under more pressure,Egypt not cedeing the islands like tiran to Saudi Arabia,the Suez route is a problem.however the Iraq to aqaba pipeline and then maybe israel is a new possibility.again iran is trying to control Iraq so this sunni plan could come under threat.
    Pipe lines and pipe dreams

  63. Anonymous • Disclaimer says:

    There is a railway being built from Iran to the ukraine.
    Ukraine has wheat…..iran has oil.

    Has Iran even started selling its oil?

    Eastern Europeans who have good soil and a wealth of high quality agro products should develop good relationships with Iran and China. Those can be huge markets for them. If the US tries to interfere and thwart that relationship which they have on some occasions, Ukrainians shouldn’t listen to them. Especially during the Trump administration which has basically told Ukraine to If Trump starts a trade war with China, Europeans shouldn’t follow him. Instead they should create a strategic relationship with China based on trade.

  64. @Anon

    This is one of the very few ( perhaps the only one? ) gay band in Russia. Very atypical.

  65. Aha…so the old Saker is back. I’d call this article “Saker Classic”. Rather acute and mostly agreeable with. The best parts:

    “…the United States… now “own” that defeat.” ;

    “… instead of the Ukraine becoming like Europe, it is Europe which became like the Ukraine…” ;

    Some concerns are neocons and banksters in Trump’s team – from the degenerate beast Mattis to a selection of deranged neocons to the Goldman Sachs bloodsuckers and a few others of questionable positions , that can cause a disaster if let off the leash. Trump himself has made some rather disturbing statements on various subjects – from Russia to China to Israel, Iran etc. , making it appear that he might be only yet another frontman for the global judeo-masonic cabal ( that’s a more appropriate definition of what Saker calls AngloZionists ). And of course the neocon-infested Congress alone is enough to derail any good Trump might attempt.

    “McCain referred to her as a “gas station masquerading as a country”” , to which I always juxtapose McCain’s degeneracy incubator of a country …oh, well, to each their own.

    What’s also interestingly a few seem to be paying much attention to is the fact that the USA is being torn from inside by race , class, religious wars , albeit largely subsurface , to such an extent that it would not take much influence to cause these artificially suppressed by the ruling cabal forces to flare up into potentially nationwide inferno… not unlike a pebble tossed at a mountain slope setting off an avalanche.

  66. Augustine says:

    No, to us Brazilians, the ousting of Dilma was our Brexit. To suggest that her impeachment, following the letter of the constitution and overseen by the supreme court, was some sort of coup shows ignorance at best and deception at worst.

    No, the corruption of the PT regime became intolerable even in a country accustomed to corruption like Brazil. It was not the Brazilian congress that sent Dilma’s approval to single digits. The utmost suppression of the popular evaluation of her they led to massive manifestations against her is utter dishonesty to make the facts match an a priori conclusion.

    The fact is that Latin America is irrelevant. Its economic output, choked by its geography, is just enough to sustain its population. Its position in foreign trade is this inherently weak, aggravated by its isolation between two vast oceans. The same oceans that make the continent strategically unimportant. It’s not like the US or any other hegemon needs to work hard on the region, whichever side the corrupt politicians in Latin America lean to in their speeches for domestic consumption.

  67. 5371 says:

    Neither good poetry nor deep thought.

  68. Maxim says:

    Nice to read this article in January 2018 and see that the author’s predictions were quite correct.
    Good job!

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