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Iran Prevails Over the US, Twice, But This Is Far from Over
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Image processed by CodeCarvings Piczard ### FREE Community Edition ### on 2019-09-23 06:58:34Z | |

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An Iranian official has announced that the UK-flagged tanker Stena Impero was free to leave. Remember the Stena Impero? This is the tanker the IRGC arrested after the Empire committed an act of piracy on the high seas and seized the Iranian tanker Grace 1. Col Cassad posted a good summary of this info-battle, blow by blow (corrected machine translation):

  1. Britain, at the instigation of the US, seizes the Iranian tanker Grace 1 and demands from Iran guarantees that it in any case does not go to Syria.
  2. Iran, in response, captures the British tanker Stena Impero and says it will not retreat until the British releases Grace 1. British ships that guarded merchant ships in the Strait of Hormuz were warned that they would be destroyed if they interfered with the IRGC’s actions.
  3. After 2 months, Britain officially releases Grace 1, which is renamed Adrian Darya 1. It raised the Iranian flag and changed the crew.
  4. The British government says the tanker is released under Iran’s obligations not to unload the tanker at the Syrian port of Banias or anywhere else in Syria. Iran denies this.
  5. The US officially requires Britain and Gibraltar to arrest Adrian Darya 1 and not let him into Syria, as it violates the sanctions regime. Britain and Gibraltar refuse the US.
  6. Adrian Darya 1 reaches the coast of Syria and after a few days on the beam of Banias, unloads its cargo in Syria. The Iranian government says it has not made any commitments to anyone.
  7. After Adrian Darya 1 left Syria, Iran announced that it was ready to release the British tanker. The goal has been achieved.

This is truly an amazing series of steps, really!

The US is the undisputed maritime hyper-power, not only because of its huge fleet, but because of its network of bases all over the planet (700-1000 depending on how you count) and, possibly even more importantly, a network of so-called “allies”, “friends”, “partners” and “willing coalition members” (aka de facto US colonies) worldwide. In comparison, Iran is a tiny dwarf, at least in maritime terms. But, as the US expression goes, “it’s not the size of the dog in the fight, it’s the size of the fight in the dog” which decides the outcome.

And then there is the (provisional) outcome of the Houthi strike on the Saudi oil installations. The Saudis appeared to be pushing for war against Iran, as did Pompeo, but Trump apparently decided otherwise:

Some have focused on the fact that Trump said that it was “easy” to attack Iran. Others have ridiculed Trump for his silly bragging about how US military gear would operate in spite of the dismal failure of both US cruise missile attacks (on Syria) and the Patriot SAMs (in the KSA). But all that bragging is simply obligatory verbal flag-waving; this is what the current political culture in the US demands from all politicians. But I think that the key part of his comments is when he says that to simply attack would be “easy” (at least for him it would) but that this would not show strength. I also notice that Trump referred to those who predicted that he would start a war and said that they were wrong about him. Trump also acknowledged that a lot of people are happy that he does not strike (while others deplored that, of course, beginning with the entire US pseudo-liberal & pseudo-Left media and politicians). The one exception has been, again, Tulsi Gabbard who posted this after Trump declared that the US was “locked and loaded”:

Whatever may be the case, this time again, Trump seemed to have taken a last minute decision to scrap the attack the Neocons have been dreaming about for decades.

I think that I made my opinion about Trump pretty clear, yet I also have to repeat that all these “climbdowns” by Trump are, just by themselves, a good enough reason to justify a vote for Trump. Simply put; since Trump came to power we saw a lot of hubris, nonsense, ignorance and stupidity. But we did NOT see a war, especially not a major one. I will never be able to prove that, but I strongly believe that if Hillary had won, the Middle-East would have already exploded (most likely after a US attempt at imposing a no-fly zone over Syria).

We are also very lucky that, at least in this case, the rapid every four year Presidential election in the US contributes to keep Trump (and his Neocon masters) in check: Trump probably figured out that a blockade of Venezuela or, even more so, a strike on Iran would severely compromise his chances of being re-elected, especially since neither theater offers the US any exit strategy.

Still, following these immensely embarrassing defeats, Trump and his advisors had to come up with something “manly” (which they confuse with “macho”) and make some loud statements about sending more forces to the Persian Gulf and beefing up the Saudi air defenses. This will change nothing. Iran is already the most over-sanctioned country on the planet and we have seen what US air defense can, and cannot do. Truth be told, this is all about face-saving and I don’t mind any face-saving inanities as long as they make it possible to avoid a real shooting war.

Still, the closer we get to the next US election, the more Trump should not only carefully filter what he says, he would be well advised to give some clear and strict instructions to his entire Administration about what they can say and what they cannot say. Of course, in the case of a rabid megalomaniac like Pompeo, no such “talking points” will be enough: Trump needs to fire this psychopath ASAP and appoint a real diplomat as Secretary of State. After all, Pompeo belongs in the same padded room as Bolton.

Now if we look at the situation from the Iranian point of view, it is most interesting. First, for context, I recommend the recent articles posted by Iranian analysts on the blog, especially the following ones:

  1. War Gaming the Persian Gulf Conflict” by Black Archer Williams
  2. Karbala, The Path of Most Resistance” by Mansoureh Tadjik
  3. Resistance report: Syrian Army takes the initiative in Idlib while Washington blames its failures on Iran again” by Aram Mirzaei

I also recommend my recent interview with Professor Marandi.

I recommend all these Iranian voices because they are so totally absent from the political discussions on the Middle-East, at least in western media. Williams, Tadjik, Mirzaei and Marandi are very different people, they also have different point of views and focuses of interest, but when you read them you realize how confident and determined Iranians are. I am in contact with Iranians abroad and in Iran and all of them, with no exception, share that calm determination. It seems that, just like Russians, Iranians most certainly don’t want war, but they are ready for it.

ORDER IT NOW

The Iranian preferred strategy is also clear: just the way Hezbollah keeps Iran in check so will the Houthis with the KSA. The Houthis, who are now in a very strong negotiation position, have offered to stop striking the KSA if the Saudis do likewise. Now, the Saudis, just like the Israelis, are too weak to accept any such offer, that is paradoxical but true: if the Saudis officially took the deal, that would “seal” their defeat in the eyes of their own public opinion. Having said that, I can’t believe that the Saudis believe their own propaganda about war against Iran. No matter how delusional and arrogant the Saudi leaders are, surely they must realize what a war against Iran would mean for the House of Saud (although when I read this I wonder)! It is one thing to murder defenseless Shias in the KSA, Bahrain or Yemen and quite another to take on “the country which trained Hezbollah”.

Speaking of delusional behavior, the Europeans finally did fall in line behind their AngloZionist overlords and agreed to blame Iran for the attack under what I call the “Skripal rules of evidence” aka “highly likely“. The more things change, the more they remain the same I suppose…

It is pretty clear that all the members of the Axis of Kindness (US, KSA, Israel) are in deep trouble on the internal front: Trump is busy with the “Zelensky vs Biden” scandal, especially now since the Dems are opening impeachment procedures, the latest elections failed to deliver the result Bibi wanted, as for the Saudis, after pushing for war they now have to settle for more sanctions and radars, hardly a winning combination.

The Saudis are too weak, clueless and obese (physically and mentally) to get anything done by themselves. But the US and Israel are now in a dire need to show some kind of “victory” over, well, somebody. Anybody will do. Thus the US have just denied visas 10 members of the Russian delegation to the United Nations (thereby violating yet another US obligation under international law, but nobody in the US cares about such minor trivialities as international law); and just to show how amazingly powerful the Empire is, the Iranian delegation to the UN received the same “punished bad boys” treatment: truly, a triumph worthy of a superpower! Last minute update: the US is now revoking Iranian student visas and denying entry to Venezuelan diplomats.

This “war of visas” is the US equivalent of the “war on statues” the Ukrainians, Balts and the Poles have been waging to try to distract their population from the comprador policies of their governments.

As for the Israelis, I now expect the Israelis to strike some empty building in Syria (or even in Gaza!).

Conclusion: facts don’t really matter anymore, and neither does logic

Ten years ago Chris Hedges wrote a book called “Empire of Illusion: The End of Literacy and the Triumph of Spectacle ” and, a full decade later, this title is still an extremely accurate diagnostic. What Hedges politely called the “end of literacy” can be observed in all its facets, listening to US political and military leaders. While most of them are, indeed, morally bankrupt and even psychopaths, it is their level of ignorance and incompetence which is the most amazing. First, the Russians spoke of “non-agreement-capable” “partners” but eventually Putin quipped that it was hard to work with “people who confuse Austria and Australia“. This all, by the way, applies as much to the Obama Administration as it does to the Trump Administration: their common motto could have been “illusions über alles” or something similar. Once a political culture fully enters into the realm of illusions and delusions the end is near because no real-world problem ever gets tackled: it only gets obfuscated, denied and drowned into an ocean of triumphalist back-slapping and other forms of self-worship.

Post scriptum: the US goes crazy but Trump just might survive after all

So the Dems decided to try to impeach Trump. While I always expected the Neocons to treat Trump as the “disposable President” which they would try to use to do all the stuff they don’t want to be blamed for directly, and then toss him away once they squeezed him for everything he could give them, I am still appalled by the nerve, the arrogance and the total dishonesty of the Dems (see my rant here).

My gut feeling is that Trump just might beat this one for the very same reason he won the first time around: because the other side is even worse (except Tulsi Gabbard, of course).

Of course, an attack on Iran would be a welcome distraction à lawag the dog” and Trump might be tempted. Hopefully, the Dems will self-destruct fast enough for Trump not to have to consider this.

 
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  1. I like Gabbard.

    But she won’t save Trump.

    She’s an admirable alley cat, regrettably, in the same cage with lions.

    • Replies: @chris
    , @Jack_Garbo
  2. A123 says:

    Holding Indian nationals hostage is “Iran Winning”?

    Iran has permanently slammed shut the door on selling oil to India by kidnapping the crew of the Stena Impero.
    ____

    Having only China as a trade partner is “Iran Winning”?

    How much oil has Iran sold to the EU via the INSTEX oil exchange. Zero. Nada. Zilch.

    Iran now has one trading partner, and ask the U.S. negotiators how ruthless the Chinese are when they have the upper hand on trade. How much of a haircut is Iran taking on each barrel of oil to appease the Chinese Trade Ministry?

    Whatever they are taking in, it isn’t enough to stabilize the failing Iranian economy. Every story about the value of the Iranian Rial brings bad news. The value is so low the government is pushing a re-denomination plan (1).
    ____

    Waiting for Saudi retaliation is “Iran Winning”?

    With or without U.S. help, the Saudis will strike back at a time and place of their choosing. As long as they choose wisely, their chances of a successful retaliation are quite high. Iran and SA share a very similar problem. Too much area to cover with the limited amount of anti-air available.

    When will SA start buying Iron Dome from Israel? Much cheaper per interceptor. Radar and tracking is optimized to slower, smaller, low flying, rockets and drones.
    ____

    Taking Saudi oil fields temporarily out of production is “Iran Winning”?

    Has oil spiked to over $100/bbl? No….. OPEC is at a record low share of the global market.

    The U.S. has substantially increased its hydrocarbon output. America generates enough oil to meet 100% of domestic needs, and has a market glut of natural gas. The cost to ship gas is higher than other hydrocarbon products, but it can be done.

    If Ayatollah Khameni manages to starts his Shia-Sunni war, Persian Gulf oil production will be wiped out on all sides. And, the world will be just fine. In fact, the two biggest winners will be Russia and the U.S.
    ____

    All objective evidence agrees, Iran is Losing.

    As no one wants to put boots on the ground in Iran, the shape and timing of the end are not yet known. However, the end is coming.

    As long as sociopath Khameni continues in power, Iranians will suffer due to his mistakes. He is genuinely incapable of caring what happens to his own people. The cleanest solution is the one that worked in Egypt. The military can end the crazed zealotry of Ayatollah Khameni’s theocracy. This would allow Iran to rejoin the community of civilized nations with little to no blood shed.

    PEACE 😇
    _____

    (1) https://www.forbes.com/sites/dominicdudley/2019/08/22/rial-mess/

  3. HEREDOT says:

    When will this nightmare end?

  4. Cortes says:
    @A123

    We people of Iran are fortunate to have you in our corner.

    Thank you and bomb us muchly.

  5. @A123

    It is not required for you to post a cartoon here A123, you are the joke!

    • Agree: Moi
    • Replies: @A123
  6. Alfred says:
    @A123

    Iran has permanently slammed shut the door on selling oil to India by kidnapping the crew of the Stena Impero.

    The was released as soon as Syria got its oil. As for the Indian crew, you can be sure that they were treated royally with plenty of kebabs or curries. The Iranians have good relations historically with India. Lots of Iranians go there to study, for example.

    I suggest you go and visit some of these places your write about so knowledgeably

    As for the oil, don’t worry too much about that. Iran is exporting far more than the Americans think – and much of indirectly to India. 🙂

    With or without U.S. help, the Saudis will strike back at a time and place of their choosing

    You keep on making these assertions. You have never been to Saudi Arabia or worked with Saudi Arabians. You don’t have a clue as to how incompetent and unmilitaristic they can be. They are a tribal society that has forgotten its own history. Ibn Saud is an entirely different person from his grandson.

  7. anon[372] • Disclaimer says:

    Trump’s position on war is clear and his actions are easy to predict. He does not want to take the US into any more wars, and he wants out of the wars we are in.
    Syria – Trump talked tough, rattled his saber (all required political posturing for an American President), then bombed one empty factory after giving the Syrians a heads up so they could clear the area. Then he stalled, delayed and let the Russians win the war in Syria. He deliberately lost the Syrian war to get us out of it, which was exactly the right thing to do. I will vote for him again in 2020 for that reason alone.
    Venezuela – Trump talked tough, rattled his saber, then just dropped the whole thing. No war in Venezuela.
    Ukraine – Trump ignores it. Hillary would have had 10,000 US troops in Ukraine by now.
    Iran – Trump is talking tough, rattling his saber, and two months from now it will all be forgotten. There will be no war with Iran.
    It is true that Trump is imposing sanctions on these countries and preventing normal relations, but that is not a big deal. As long as he stays out of war, Russia and China will continue to develop their power base in Eurasia and in time the US will be forced OUT of the world hegemony business.
    Trump is a saint. He is dragging the US kicking and screaming away from its criminal empire. He doesn’t have to be smart, pretty, or likeable. He doesn’t have to have good intentions. All he has to do is bullshit his way through and come the morning not start a war. He is doing just that.

  8. hunor says:
    @A123

    Iran is a big time winner as long as don’t allows the kind of
    you to enslave them .

  9. der einzige says: • Website

    since Trump came to power we saw a lot of hubris, nonsense, ignorance and stupidity. But we did NOT see a war, especially not a major one.

    How wonderful he is. He fucks Yemen, Syria, Afghanistan, Iraq, ukraine, Venezuela, Iran, Hongkong and more but he could kill like Killary.
    Let this Florida “Analyst” show you the Golan Heights and Jerusalem.
    Saker you are more and more pathetic. .
    You’re a fool if you haven’t understood to this day that presidential elections don’t matter.
    Politicians are just puppets and you push people into the ignorance that by choosing one or the other they change anything.

    There is no other job for you in Florida?

    • Replies: @Fatima Manoubia
  10. Trump is wavering (sensibly) on war with Iran, for such a conflict would have huge repercussions beyond the region, threatening to engulf the whole world. He must not delude himself, ignore the signs of history, otherwise he could face the very war he seeks to avoid: annihilation.
    https://www.ghostsofhistory.wordpress.com/

  11. @A123

    You are a joke buddy! Go hebe it up elsewhere!

    • Agree: Buck Ransom, Herald, Druid
  12. anonymous[307] • Disclaimer says:
    @A123

    Hey zionist idiot, let’s see what one of the zionist enemy of Iran who has tear apart his behind to make US wage war against Iran has to say about Khamenie Troll:

    FP: In the end, is there any coherence to Trump’s Iran policy?

    RMG: Since they [the administration] didn’t give sanctions relief even though the president expressed some sympathy for that option to [French President Emmanuel] Macron [during the recent G-7 summit], there is at least a consistency still on the use of sanctions. Trump hasn’t betrayed that consistency yet.

    FP: Sanctions to what end?

    RMG: The president doesn’t really articulate a view for the use of sanctions beyond that they are supposed to bring him a new opportunity to cut a deal. Is that conceivable? I suppose it is, but I don’t think it’s likely. I think what is more likely is that the supreme leader is going to engage the president in a machtpolitik game. He’s quite a serious devotee of that. People don’t give him nearly enough credit: I think he is the most successful Middle Eastern leader since World War II. He’s supremely skilled, supremely talented.

    https://foreignpolicy.com/2019/09/19/how-iran-supreme-leader-is-outmatching-trump-reuel-gerecht-interview/

    You the Jewish zionist Troll along with RMG , enemy of Iran, should shut up and get lost liar.

  13. FB says: • Website

    Excellent analysis from The Saker…who is today soaring high above his vineyard in the fine flying form of his namesake raptor…

    For those who would like a little more technical meat about the amazingly successful Houthi airstrike of Sept 14, I have updated my technical article on the Quds-1 cruise missile, with some input from MIT physicist Ted Postol…

    THE FAKE NARRATIVE ABOUT THE STRIKE COMING FROM IRAN IS FALLING APART

    I had predicted this in my original technical analysis…debunking the bullshit from fake experts like Jeffrey Lewis’s Arms Control Wonk website…and other crackers being cited in the media disinformation campaign…about how the Houthi missiles supposedly don’t have enough range…I wrote…

    No actual expert in aerodynamics and jet propulsion could possibly arrive at such a ridiculous figure [700 km maximum range]. It would require an engine fuel consumption of DOUBLE that of the actual TJ-100 engine.

    Now we have confirmation that the Pentagon is well aware that the strike came from Yemen…Colonel Pat Lang’s blog has the story…

    The military commanders in the USA are keeping silent with regards to the source of the attacks that targeted the Aramco oil facilities…

    Indeed, there has been no official report released by the Pentagon that accuses Iran. Furthermore, no senior military officers made any statements to accuse Iran.

    The senior officers and military experts are actually cautious and not taking the risk of making any incorrect statements.

    They realize that the arsenal of the American radars at the Arabian Gulf including the land and the ship-mounted radars have recorded at least half the drones’ flight, which is enough data to tell the source.

    Indeed…the jig is up…there is only so much fake reality that Malignant Manatee Pompeo and the US presstitutes can conjure up…

    In an earlier note to Prof Postol I said this…

    I have to believe that serious technical people within the defense establishment are cognizant of the fact that the Quds has twice the range being cited by bogus experts, and that it did indeed come from Yemen.

    But this information is going to be kept under wraps for obvious reasons. And in fact the usual inversion of the truth is going to be presented to a public that simply has no capability to understand the technical reality.

    Now we see that the fake narrative is crumbling as we expected…

  14. d dan says:

    The author writes: “…all these “climbdowns” by Trump are, just by themselves, a good enough reason to justify a vote for Trump. Simply put; since Trump came to power we saw a lot of hubris, nonsense, ignorance and stupidity. But we did NOT see a war, especially not a major one.”

    Oh boy, vote for a President because he hasn’t started a new major war! Trump is so”prudent”.

    Any more doubt that this country is in deep trouble when the standard for President is so low now? For an even longer time, my cat never starts any war with any country or anyone. Not even with my neighbor’s dogs.

    • Replies: @Biff
  15. @A123

    I don’t trust Iran or Muslims generally, but snarky and transparent propaganda like yours is one of the few things to make me root for them against the warmongers here in the USA and in Israel.

    • Replies: @anon
  16. Giuseppe says:

    So the Dems decided to try to impeach Trump. While I always expected the Neocons to treat Trump as the “disposable President”… I am still appalled by the nerve, the arrogance and the total dishonesty of the Dems…

    It’s rich that the CIA is going after Trump, even if we are speaking only of their actions in the Ukraine.

    • Replies: @AnonFromTN
    , @Carroll Price
  17. Biff says:
    @d dan

    Oh boy, vote for a President because he hasn’t started a new major war! Trump is so”prudent”.

    Any more doubt that this country is in deep trouble when the standard for President is so low now? For an even longer time, my cat never starts any war with any country or anyone. Not even with my neighbor’s dogs.

    Sans the sarcasm, I completely agree with the Saker. If you recall, at this point into (forked tongue)Obama’s term he was already a war criminal of epic proportions, and his wake of disasters are some of the ugliest hotspots on the planet. The domestic shithole is going down, Trump or no Trump, anyway, and as long as a president can keep that local it is a good thing.

    • Replies: @d dan
  18. Probably, there will be no attack on Iran because neither the USA nor Israel nor Saudi Arabia has a legitimate causus belli and an attack without one, would require a much higher level of morale that any of these three’s militaries have. Furthermore, Iran has made it quite clear that an attack on Iran will have really dire (and incalculable) consequences for all three. To cap it all, the MIC is making gigantic sums of money without a hot war on Iran, so why not just continue with the status quo?

    • Replies: @seekerofthepresence
  19. voicum says:
    @A123

    Man , you are hilarious , you’v got to try stand up comedy.

  20. d dan says:
    @Biff

    “Sans the sarcasm, I completely agree with the Saker. If you recall, at this point into (forked tongue)Obama’s term he was already a war criminal of epic proportions, and his wake of disasters are some of the ugliest hotspots on the planet.”

    I don’t disagree with the author either. I just find depressing that we have to come to such low standard for President. I also agree that the Nobel “Peace” Prize President is anything but “peace loving”.

  21. renfro says:
    @A123

    Saudi and Israel are both losing because they cant get the US to strike Iran for them.

    Meanwhile…..Iran goes straight into the embrace of Russia and China.

    China’s Giant $400 Billion Iran Investment Complicates U.S. …

    https://www.forbes.com › sites › arielcohen › 2019/09/19 › chinas-giant-4…

    Sep 19, 2019 – China is pledging to invest upwards of $400 billion in Iran’s petrochemical and manufacturing sectors following an August visit by Iran’s Foreign …

  22. anon[113] • Disclaimer says:
    @anon

    Trump talked tough …..then bombed one empty factory after giving the Syrians a heads up …

    If you think that’s all the mayhem US has wrought under Trump’s watch, you’re grossly uninformed. US and its “allies” are still there. US bombed Idlib last week, disrupting a ceasefire. Yes, Trump is reluctant to war, dragging his heels, but don’t overstate your case, and we’re not done in Syria yet.

  23. Sean says:

    Left alone they will get a nuke. Iran cannot be trusted with limpet mines. So they are not going to be left alone.

  24. renfro says:

    Growing Russia Turkey Iran Alleianc
    https://www.jpost.com/Middle-East/State-media-in-Iran-Russia-indicate-growing-Russia-Iran-Turkey-alliance-602787

    Erdogan says Turkey will continue oil, natural gas trade with Iran: NTV
    https://www.reuters.com/article/us-turkey-iran-trade-usa/erdogan-says-turkey-will-continue-oil-natural-gas-trade-with-iran-ntv-idUSKBN1WB33D

    ANKARA (Reuters) – Turkish President Tayyip Erdogan said on Friday it was impossible for Turkey to stop buying oil and natural gas from Iran, despite the threat of U.S. sanctions, and added that trade between the two countries would continue, according to broadcaster NTV.
    Speaking to reporters on his return flight from the United Nations General Assembly in New York, Erdogan said Turkey was not afraid of possible U.S. sanctions over its trade with Iran, adding that Ankara did not want to sever its cooperation with Tehran.”

    The line up so far of whose who most likely in a fight—
    Iran, Iraq, China, Russia, Turkey , Syria ,Hezbollah….vr….Saudi , US, Israel, ?
    I cant find any other countries making noises right now on US-Isr-Saudi side, the UAE has pulled out of support for Saudi in Yemen, Qatar isn’t going to fight…..maybe some others might.

  25. chris says:
    @Longfisher

    Very good analogy of Tulsi and her relative role in the campaign!

    I also found her video to be a little naive in tone and insinuation, bringing up the very titilating suggestion of Tump turning her ‘brothers and sisters in arms,’ (but especially her) into (a) prostitute(s)! Hmmm, interesting thought, though a little self-defeating for her stated purpose.

    Whoever her camping manager is, is, well pimping her out in suggesting that role and she’s agreeing to do it!

  26. anon[122] • Disclaimer says:
    @A123

    Your soulmate has in the right place- toilet . What are you doling here .?

    https://www.foxnews.com/opinion/israeli-ambassador-danon-dont-be-fooled-by-iran-it-embraces-terrorism-bloodshed-and-blackmail

    Join the psycho who confuses his stupid land oriented religion with other people’s justice and spirituality . This scoundrel should be caged for tourist to watch him wag his tail against his own testicles to scare the fleas .

  27. Ghali says:

    Tulsi Gabbard must know that the “US Armed Forces” are under the command of the Zionist entity Israel, NOT Saudi Arabia. SA is used to justify war on Iran, and the Israeli regime and Jews in general love it. Can you imagine Trump saying “We are waiting for Israel”. No way.

    The American regime can stand up and tell the rest of the world, “We are defending ISlam (Saudi Arabia), we are no fighing against Islam”. The truth is, Trump is placing US Armed Forces under the command of Israel.

    • Replies: @anon
  28. Melotte22 says:
    @A123

    Wish you a speedy recovery.

  29. Anonymous[428] • Disclaimer says:

    Why isn’t any jouno asking? : Why is the Pres. of the US the only leader in the entire world whose election or re-election to office depends almost entirely on which and whether he will bomb a particular country that refuses amerikan diktats???

    That this phenomena has been a practice since the days of Clinton is an outrage. I recall during the height of the Monica Lewinsky scandal, Clinton bombed Sudan and Iraq to deflect attention of his misdeeds. Just kill a few dozen people in some foreign place and everything will be jes fine.

  30. Realist says:

    Why isn’t any jouno asking? : Why is the Pres. of the US the only leader in the entire world whose election or re-election to office depends almost entirely on which and whether he will bomb a particular country that refuses amerikan diktats???

    Because this country has turned to shit…it is on the shit slide to hell.

  31. padre says:
    @A123

    Iranian has been loosing for some 3000 years and still, here they are,while the USA can’t even imagine, what thousand years mean!

  32. Miggle says:

    Thanks, Saker. But:

    The Iranian preferred strategy is also clear: just the way Hezbollah keeps Iran in check so will the Houthis with the KSA.

    Presumably meant to be, “just the way Hezbollah keeps Israel in check …”

  33. @A123

    A123 wrote: “If Ayatollah Khameni manages to starts his Shia-Sunni war, Persian Gulf oil production will be wiped out on all sides. And, the world will be just fine. In fact, the two biggest winners will be Russia and the U.S.”

    If you really believe this, put your money where your mouth is. Invest in US fracking.

    The junk bond market offers plenty of high-interest yielding fracking securities. Enough potential profit to make you Koch Industries rich.

  34. Don’t worry, Everyone. The (((Great Migration Kalergi Dream))) flooding the USA with African cannibals and docile Mexicans will make the whole world safe from bloodthirsty, warmongering Whites.

    Unfortunately, the European Caliphate won’t be as peaceful.

  35. anon[122] • Disclaimer says:
    @Sean

    what is a trust ? How does one define it? Israel extorted American money and helps by blackmailing nuke threat . That is bad trust . Israel has made threats of wiping out European and American cities . That is a very bad thing . Israel provided nuclear material supply chain to S Africa . That its very uncivilozational .

    Above all Israel stole nuclear materials way back in 60s and polluted American cities . That is not acceptable.
    Israel is not anymore acceptable. It is test issue

    Very idea of Israel now erases any trust in everything, in any issue ,any collaboration any endeavor that Israel is in solved with locally or globally . It is a terror producing country .

    It has to go.

    Time is up

    • Agree: DESERT FOX
  36. @A123

    The problem is that you also post a thousand words. Bullshit too usually.

  37. I believe that whoever wins the zionist controlled election for POTUS, that the ZUS will stage a false flag and blame Iran and the ZUS will then attack Iran and this will bring in Russia to defend Iran and the war will go nuclear and this is what the satanic zionists want, they want armageddon, and they will get armageddon!

    The zionists are psychopaths and they proved this with their attack on the WTC on 911, where they and their zionist traitors in the ZUS government murdered some 3000 Americans to push America into destroying the middle east and millions of lives, all for the goal of the satanic greater Israel.

    The greatest enemy of America is zionism and zionists!

    • Agree: Republic
    • Replies: @sarz
  38. Anon[424] • Disclaimer says:

    IRAN : 1,650.000 km2 , 82 million people , fervent islamic faith , strong identity , very angry at the ” west ” , powerful army and military industry , regional allies ( Irak , Siria , Lebanon , Yemen , Russia , …. ) , can set on fire Saudi Arabia ,Kuwait , Emirates , Dubai …, can close the strait of Ormuz …. I doubt very much that the overextended armies of the USA will attack Iran , Trump is an inteligent man

    The US & EU sanctions , the economic blockade against Iran , certainly harms Iran but increases the hate of Iran to the ” west ” , throws Iran in the arms of China and Russia , and end up damaging the industrial and commercial base of the ” west ” , ends up damaging the workers of the ” west ” , and ends up damaging the international credibility of the ” west ” as a commercial partner .

  39. J says: • Website

    Iran’s fanatical clerics are contained and cannot go nuclear. The price of oil is high and Saudia keeps buying weapons from the West. The Yemenis have been firing missiles to Saudia for a long time, and that’s all. Yemen is one of the poorest, underdeveloped. drugged place on Earth and can be ignored as a military force. The situation in the Gulf is stable. Why should America interfere?

    • Replies: @FB
    , @renfro
    , @tac
  40. anon[122] • Disclaimer says:
    @RadicalCenter

    When we think of Israel’s criminality, we think of a few activities like usurpation of Palestinian land, USS Liberty or stealing US nuke ,or interfering with US system of justice or foreign policy etc. But we forget that this country is daily breaching the minimum standard of human conduct .

    One of the remarkable achievements of daily crime is the amnesia and inattention it produces . It is like 24 hour news cycle . American can’t tie one thing to an other because of the overload of information
    Israel reaps same benefit by committing atrocious crimes on a daily basis against someone including against its friends. By the time it throws a grenade to a school bus we have forgot that it 24 hours ago killed a few pregnant women on the check points . By the time we come to know about Danon the Israeli envoy is inserting false in formation on Iran through Fox,we forget that it has done same on Syria and Libya .

    Only destruction of this nation can save USA. Otherwise death will be looking at US.

    Trust Israel at your own peril . Muslim did not hurt this country . Islam did not hurt this country. It might in future but so far it has not.

    You should look into your antipathy again. Is it inserted into your mind against your wish by the Israel?

    • Replies: @DESERT FOX
    , @RadicalCenter
  41. Anon[424] • Disclaimer says:

    The US is not going to militarily attack Iran . Trump is an intelligent man .

    Iran : 1,650.000 km2 , 82 million people , strong national and islamic identity , powerful armies and military industry , they hate the west , regional allies ( Irak , Siria , Lebanon , Russia ,Turkey … ) ,can set on fire the oil ring Saudi Arabia, Kuwait , Emirates etc… they can close the strait of Ormuz .

    The US-EU will continue with economic and commercial sanctions against Iran , what throws Iran into the arms of China , Russia , India … The west will keep loosings customers , international confidence , industrial might , and reliability as a commercial partner .

  42. Iran did not prevail over the US. Iran simply showed the Empire that it is not all-powerful and can be sent to Hell by a relatively weak country that has retained its dignity. Despite the tantrums of the spoiled imperial brat, this is not the same thing.

  43. @Sean

    To the best of my knowledge, so far only one country used nukes against humans. What’s more, against civilians. It wasn’t Iran. If we consider the facts, the conclusion who cannot be trusted with nukes becomes obvious.

  44. @chris

    It’s more than that. She refers to bin Salman as an Islamist dictator. Does it matter if he is an Islamist or a dictator? The implication is that it is OK to pimp out US troops her “brothers and sisters” to the Jewish democratic state of Israel, which the US has done for decades. None of the wars in the ME or Afghanistan benefit the US. Recall that the US is in Afghanistan because of what, almost certainly, was an Israeli attack on the US.

    • Replies: @Dumbo
  45. @Giuseppe

    Russian folk wisdom is that the thief always cries “hold the thief!” louder than others.

  46. So Trump is bad and a tool of the Neocons, but somehow gets good results and thwarts the Neocon’s favorite project.

    How could this possibly happen?

    Counterinsurgency

    • Replies: @Herald
  47. Wally says:
    @A123

    A123, the another Zionist liar who demands belief in the fake & impossible ‘Nazi gas chambers’.

    A123, another Zionist liar who has been promoting the fake ‘6,000,000 dead Jews’ since at least 1823.

    • Agree: gotmituns
  48. Bookish1 says:
    @anon

    Very interesting take on trump. I hope you are right.

  49. pyrrhus says:

    Finally a Saker column without Marxist rhetoric attacking egalitarianism and nationalism…Though the Saker seems ok with Iranian nationalism….

  50. Truth3 says:

    Chosenite Example of the Day…

    You may now return to your scheduled programming.

    • Replies: @gotmituns
  51. chris says:

    Yeah, of course, that is the larger point. Thanks for pointing that out, I agree completely, Curmudgeon !

  52. anon[113] • Disclaimer says:
    @Ghali

    Very true, and well said. But are you, and others making similar comments, only sharing in this echo chamber? Are you all telling Tulsi …. even posting on her youtubes, if you’re too shy to call her campaign or her office.

    Tulsi had huge backlash from her supporters after her anti-BDS vote, forcing her to respond publicly. The more she’s taken to task for her (naive or hypocritical) talking points, the better.

  53. FB says: • Website
    @J

    ‘J’ [as in JACKASS]…

    You have about as much awareness of the world around you as a baked fucking potato…

    For readers of normal intelligence, you may be interested in the latest news of the spectacular victory of Houthi operations INSIDE Saudia…

    Houthis Release Shocking Videos Of Operation Victory From God

    Thousands of Saudi-led coalition personnel were killed, injured or captured by the Houthis and their local allies in large-scale ambush, dubbed “Operation Victory from God…

    Houthi fighters captured 350 square km south of Najran [inside KSA territory], including dozens of key positions.

    More than 500 Saudi service members and Saudi-backed Yemen fighters were killed.

    More than 2,000 personnel of the Saudi-led coalition were captured, including Saudi officers.

    Hundreds of pick-up trucks, armored vehicles, armored personnel carriers (APCs) and engineering vehicles


    Brigadier General Yahya Sari, spokesman of the Yemeni Armed Forces

    Again, I point readers to my website for a technical analysis of the Houthi Cruise Missile Quds-1…which crippled Aramco earlier this month…my analysis establishes a range in excess of 1,400 km…

    …and which eluded the greatest assemblage of US military and naval might on the planet…including the Patriot air ‘denfenses’ as well as the entirety of the ‘mighty’ United States Fifth Fleet in Bahrain…a stone’s throw from the smashed Aramco Abqaik facilities…

    The vaunted Aegis radar systems aboard the USN missile cruisers…plus the SM3 and SM6 air defense interceptors did nothing except spectate…while the Yemeni airstrikes blew a nice big hole in the KSA tire…

    Jackass crapped out the following…

    Yemen is one of the poorest, underdeveloped. drugged place on Earth and can be ignored as a military force.

    …which actually describes the US, not Yemen…Americans should be more concerned about WHY all this hugely expensive hardware seems incapable of stopping an airstrike from desert tribesmen with homebuilt cruise missiles…

    • Replies: @renfro
    , @Commentator Mike
  54. Ahoy says:

    The ZUS in their centuries old war against the white man have come to a point where they find themselves between a rock and a hard spot.

    A conventional war agaist Iran/Russia isn’t winnable. Nukes is mutual elimination. It’s up to them to decide if humans will be allowed to continue living on this planet.

  55. Miro23 says:

    While I always expected the Neocons to treat Trump as the “disposable President” which they would try to use to do all the stuff they don’t want to be blamed for directly, and then toss him away once they squeezed him for everything he could give them….

    With his tweet storms and fast changes of direction they don’t seem to be getting what they want and he’s still there.

    Perhaps the next move is to do a Putin and shed his puppet status.

    There are various ways to do it. Putin started by getting very close (doing a deal?) with his FSB (KGB) friends.

  56. Ahoy says:

    @FB

    Excellent comment!

  57. renfro says:
    @J

    Yemen is one of the poorest, underdeveloped. drugged place on Earth and can be ignored as a military force

    Ah….the eternal ignorance of the Jew. Saudi may be the perfect ally for them as both the Jews and the Saudi throne live on illusions and puffy PR instead of facts and reality. One reason you are called trolls is that your only info and opinions come from hasbara babble, not from real events and qualified military experts.

    So lets have some facts.

    Col Lang, the pentagon’s military liaison to the ME was their expert on assessing the military capabilities of ME countries. This was his finding on Saudi -Yemen in 2015.

    ”IMO Saudi Arabia lacks the military capability to intervene successfully in Yemen. This is equally true in what was North Yemen (YAR) and also in the former PDRY. SA’s armed forces were always built for show with a lot of expensive equipment that they were never capable of employing except at the elementary “stick and rudder” level of operations. The maintenance contracts for all that equipment have always been impressive. On the ground the Saudis possess a Wahhabi beduin manned force in the SANG that is designed to maintain population and territorial control and in its more modern parts to overawe the Twelver Shia majority population of the Eastern Province (where the oil and gas is located). The rest of the Saudi Land Forces are pretty much a jobs program for poor people from the Asir and Najd regions. In its warlike pronouncements thus far SA is mimicking the PR employed by he US, but such PR methods do not win wars against determined opponents. Egypt is dragging its feet. The coalition allies have contributed little except for the US. …..https://turcopolier.typepad.com/sic_semper_tyrannis/2019/09/decameron-saudi-arabia-yemen-and-king-belshazar.html

    Turns out Col Lang was dead accurate as other Senior US Military officials have now come out of the closet to say we told you so…..https://www.theamericanconservative.com/articles/the-military-officials-who-knew-saudi-arabia-would-fail/

    The Saudi war on Yemen will end the same way Vietnam did for the US and the same way the US invasion of Iraq ended up turning Iraq back into Iraq , the same way the US war on Afghan is lost, the same way the Israel, Saudi, US war on Syria is ending. A war on Iran would be Vietnam plus ++++++++.

    • Agree: FB
    • Replies: @By-tor
    , @L.K
  58. renfro says:
    @FB

    From what I read the Us is trying to develop defenses against low flying drones with the use of lasers and etc..

    However……regardless of what they come up with I see no way any missile or drone defense could stop a swarm of hundreds or thousand of drones against a target…..the sheer numbers would overwhelm the system.

    And since drones are inexpensive we can be sure the resistance to Saudi and Israel and the US will be building stock piles of thousands. Hezbollah already has enough to totally overwhelm Israel’s missile defense.

    *I am open to correction by anyone who knows more about what the US is trying to develop. And what Russia already has.

    .

    • Replies: @FB
  59. By-tor says:
    @renfro

    This morning, Southfront linked this 37min. Yemeni military conference with video showing the Najran-border area ambush on Saudi coalition mercenary forces. There is 24mins. of footage of the attack showing the crashed and burning Saudi military vehicles, Saudi KIA, the Saudi injured being attended to by the Yemenis and the rounding-up of multiple hundreds of Saudi mercenaries. Someone’s F-16(?) arrived too late to save the Saudi group. The Yemeni ambush appears to have been a total route of the Saudi armored column:

    • Agree: renfro
    • Replies: @anon
    , @L.K
  60. anon[113] • Disclaimer says:
    @By-tor

    “This video has been removed for violating YouTube’s policy on violent or graphic content.”

    • Replies: @Miro23
    , @By-tor
  61. FB says: • Website
    @renfro

    Ok…so just a quick note here, first about the Houthi airstrikes on Aramco…

    The damage was done mostly by the Quds-1 cruise missile, which I have thoroughly analyzed on my website…the Saudis displayed wreckage of several Quds-1 a few days after the Aramco strike…

    So-called drones may have played some supporting role, but there are a few problems with using small UAVs to strike targets at long distances…mainly they can’t fly that far, because they are small and therefore not capable of carrying much fuel…

    The US MQ1 Predator for instance is a fairly large and sophisticated drone with a wingspan of nearly 50 ft and a full weight of nearly 5,000 pounds…yet its range is only 1,250 km…

    A cruise missile is much more effective, and the Yemenis have managed to build such a cruise missile…almost certainly with technical help from Iranian exngineers [the Iranians are extremely technically capable]…

    So this idea of tiny drone swarms is really a non-starter…such tiny vehicles [a swarm implies hundreds of such UAVs, therefore they must be small in order to be produced in quantity] simply cannot reach more than a few kilometers…

    They also can’t carry much of an explosive punch…so they need to hit the target very precisely…both the short range and the small warhead means such a small flight vehicle is only of very localized use…

    This is what we see with the Al Nusra drone attacks on the Russian airbase in Hmeimim, Syria…

    The Russians are effectively repelling these by means of anti-aircraft artillery directed by sophisticated phased array radar, as seen on the Pantsir short-range air defense system…

    They are also using radio countermeasures [ECM] to take control of of some of these vehicles and land them intact for further inspection…

    Lasers sound like a good idea in principle, but they are not close to becoming a real tool in air defense…first those lasers still need to be pointed at the target…the ONLY way to do this is by radar…

    So if the radars aren’t performing the way they need to [which may in fact be the case with a lot of US equipment, which is clearly suspect at this point…mostly due to the extreme graft and corruption in the defense procurement system]…then the whole laser defense scheme is useless to begin with…

    Second, lasers need HUGE amounts of power to operate at useful ranges…lasers, like all radiating energy obey the inverse square law, which holds that the power of the emitted radiation [whether radio waves or light waves] decreases by the SQUARE of the distance from the emitting source…

    So in order to use a laser as a weapon, it is clear that some huge source of power is required…something on the order of a nuclear reactor [at least a smallish one]…

    That’s not to say that UAVs aren’t a very important class of aerial weapon…they certainly are…very big ones could do the same thing as a long range bomber…very small ones that can fly only a few km are also still very useful in close combat situations…

    In between, you also have smallish drones that are still small enough to be hard to pick up on radar, but have enough range to strike from a standoff distance of a couple of hundred km…Israel appears to have some neat little UAVs in this category…such as the Harop drone…

    UAVs of all sizes are also very effective at ISR [intelligence, surveillance and reconnaissance]

    Iran reportedly has very advanced drone technology…this seems very credible, as they have a tremendous scientific and engineering knowledge base…Iran graduates as many engineers as the US…so almost certainly they are passing some off this off to their allies in Lebanon and Yemen…

  62. @FB

    Flashbacks of the Eritrean victory against far more numerous and better equipped Ethiopians. That was something.

  63. K14 says:
    @A123

    In your dreams zio – troll!

    The zio – occupiers of Palestine (ZOP) and wahabeasts are good at killing kids and defenceless populations but shit in their pants when death stares at them in the face…

    Neither ZOP nor their wahabeast cousins occupying the Hejazz are a match for Hezbollah or Iranians…

  64. L.K says:
    @By-tor

    Though the scale of this op may have been greater than previous Saudi defeats there really is nothing new in the Houthis routing Saudi mechanized units.

    Here’s some video from years ago showing one such Saudi unit destroyed.

  65. L.K says:
    @renfro

    SA’s armed forces were always built for show with a lot of expensive equipment that they were never capable of employing except at the elementary “stick and rudder” level of operations.

    This must come as a shock to that arrogant fool, Anatoly Karlin, who, knowing virtually ZERO about military matters in general, made a fool out of himself, as usual, by talking about things he does not know, in this case, writing a very long and extremely silly article, years ago, ranking the various military forces in the world.

    In the ‘article”, filled with silly math calculations designed to make it appear ‘serious’, the fool ranked the Saudis as the 10th most powerful military in the world, ahead even of the Israeli sissies.

    I recall that col pat lang, who was once a military attache in Yemen, state that the Houthis were excellent fighters, good to have as friends, bad to have as enemies.
    The Saudi sissies are finding that out the hard way.

    Crucial also to point out that this cowardly war on Yemen would not be possible without American and British support, not just in providing weapons and munitions, but intel and direct help in op planning to the Saudis.

    • Replies: @FB
    , @anon
  66. Miro23 says:
    @anon

    This one’s working at the moment

  67. sarz says:
    @DESERT FOX

    Desert Fox, I’m wondering if you’re the New York native who settled in Israel and has been blogging from there under that name. If so, you seem to have had a change of heart about Israel. You seem to think it’s unreformable now.

    • Replies: @DESERT FOX
  68. @FB

    FB,

    Well done. I remember you started your analysis and description of the Houthi cruise missile attack on the Saudi refinery here on UR while MSM was still harping on about drone attacks and not offering any of the quality analysis you provided here on this site. Stick to doing this kind of work and don’t let those like that Malaka character on the other thread drag you down into his world of vulgar and wasteful exchanges. UR already lost one good scientist J2 who was making a valuable contribution here until he was offended by one curt comment by RU. You had one similar from RU but stayed on, it’s a pity J2 felt he had to leave.

    • Replies: @FB
  69. FB says: • Website
    @L.K

    Do you happen to have a link to that article by the fool Munchhausen Karlin…?

    I like to collect memorabilia that provides insight into the damaged mind…

    Karlin is indeed a complete idiot in the fullest sense of the word…which is why he is called Munchhausen…as in Munchhausen Syndrome…

    Munchausen syndrome, is a factitious disorder wherein those affected feign disease, illness, or psychological trauma to draw attention, sympathy, or reassurance to themselves.

    Named for the fictional Character Baron von Munchhausen, who was actually based on a real person, known for his tall tales as an officer in the Imperial Russian army, during the wars with the Turks…

    Note the Inscription…’Mendace Veritas’…LOLOLOL

    • Replies: @Ilyana_Rozumova
  70. @sarz

    I have lived in Montana all my life.

  71. anon[260] • Disclaimer says:
    @L.K

    Karlin is the real deal . You have to be very careful of them and of his types . Derbyshire is one of them.

    They want a world where the jews dominate ME , USA and Russia divvy up the rest of the world . Pakistan,Iran and Afghanistan toe the lines of India sanctioned and approved by US.

    For them the “Crimea” becomes,es US approved part of Russia and in return Russia allows the grabbing of WB , Golan Heights and agrees to the freedom of the Jews to strike anybody from Niger to Pakistan.

    Yes,for them creation of reggae is ok but they can’t look for safe sanctuary .

    That man is crypto PNAC member or at least unofficial representative .

    So what did Houthiu teach them? Same thing they taught Sauids,Israelis,and USA.
    Where are the freckles France Germany and UK? Will they now accuse Iran of attacking Yemen-Saudi border ? Will they say that those soldiers were dropped by Iran on the Sauid land ? They might as well and get away with it.
    That explanation might as well work for them. USA doesn’t know anyway where Yemen and where Iran are . Neither pseudo conservatives Neil Farage or Boris Johnson .

    One can always explain in multiple ways where the drones came from or where the messages originated or who supplied the gas or what the affinities on the satellite meant . USA -UK has done that many times with ulterior and criminal motives .
    The silence of the median Saudi -Yemeni border incident tell us that they are waiting for the right spin from the Pompeo gang . One of them I expect would be “Bolton was right . US should have responded forcefully Then we wouldn’t have this devastating defeat of Saudi”

  72. renfro says:
    @FB

    Are these pictures the same ones Niiki Haley got from Netnyahu to display at the UN?…:LOL…..sorry cant help it , once burned forever shy. I don’t even believe my own eyes these days unless I am standing on the evidence….and dug it up myself.

    But about drones, Iran’s attack drone the Kian , can fly more than 600 miles and hug the ground or climb to an altitude of 15,000 feet and is just a tad over 10 feet ….seems these cheap to build are perfect for what Yemenis, Hezbollah and others may want to use tem for. Saudi missile protection 0%….Israeli- not 1oo%.

  73. @FB

    Allow me correct you a little bit.
    Baron Munchhausen is a German Volkish Fairy tale character as Cinderella.
    He had a boots, that when he put them on he could run from from Turkey to Germany in one hour.
    He could catch a cannon ball and turned it around and let it loose on enemy camp.

    • Replies: @FB
  74. Herald says:
    @Counterinsurgency

    Refresh our memory and give us a list the good results.

  75. @Giuseppe

    The CIA is obviously a vital component of the Deep State. So is the FBI – apparently.

  76. FB says: • Website
    @Ilyana_Rozumova

    Sorry Ilyana…the Munchausen stories were based on a real character…

    Baron Munchausen…is loosely based on a real baron, Hieronymus Karl Friedrich, Freiherr von Münchhausen.

    Born in Bodenwerder, Electorate of Brunswick-Lüneburg, the real-life Münchhausen fought for the Russian Empire in the Russo-Turkish War of 1735–1739.

    Upon retiring in 1760, he became a minor celebrity within German aristocratic circles for telling outrageous tall tales based on his military career.

    The real-life Münchhausen was deeply upset at the development of a fictional character bearing his name, and threatened legal proceedings against the book’s publisher.

  77. By-tor says:
    @anon

    Too bad youtube is an instrument of neo-liberal Alphabet-Pentagon. I was able to view the 24mins. of action footage in it’s entirety this afternoon before it was yanked down. Towards the end, the Saudis bombed their own mercenaries adding hundreds to the death toll ( confirmed by the the Yemeni military. ) The news footage showed body pieces and scores of dead scattered about. Many of them evidently took refuge inside caves in the valley that is seen in the ambush to escape the bombing. Those that survived being ambushed and then bombed by their own air force were taken prisoner as they exited the caves. Youtube must protect us fragile Americans from the reality of the wars our overlords conduct from Qatar, Bahrain and Florida.

    • Replies: @anon
  78. @Sean

    As one of the most educated and scientifically advanced countries in the Middle East, Iran could have developed nuclear weapons long ago if they had wanted to. A fact that everyone, including Israel and the US knows is true, yet they keep harping on the issue since thats the only thing either one is able to do.

    • Replies: @Sean
  79. Dumbo says:
    @Curmudgeon

    “Recall that the US is in Afghanistan because of what, almost certainly, was an Israeli attack on the US.”

    I don’t think that the US is in Afghanistan because of that, that’s just the excuse. The official story is that people from mostly Saudi Arabia hijacked planes on orders from a Saudi, so if anything, Saudi Arabia would have to be bombed. Of course the official story is bogus, but so are the whole war on Iraq and Afghanistan. They do not make any sense as reprisals for 9/11. Just as the attack on Libya a few years later were completely gratuitous and did not even have any excuse, what was the excuse to remove him and destroy Libya? But to be honest I don’t know why the US is in Afghanistan – I suppose to protect the poppy fields that produce opioids for the Sackler family?

    • Agree: RadicalCenter
    • Replies: @Druid
  80. FB says: • Website
    @Commentator Mike

    UR already lost one good scientist J2 who was making a valuable contribution here until he was offended by one curt comment by [Ron Unz]…

    Well…I don’t want to dump on poor J2, but the man is very very far from a ‘good scientist’…

    I’m sure he probably knows some things in a perhaps very narrow specialty…but he is the perfect example of the maxim…a little knowledge is a dangerous thing…

    You may recall the ‘moon hoax’ debate here…

    Well J2 decided to venture into an area about which he knows zilch and crap all over a very rigorous technical paper by an actual Russian rocket scientist with impeccable credentials…

    The paper by Gennady Ivchenkov is available here…

    I came across J2’s blog article about the Ivchenkov paper, in which J2 makes fundamental mistakes that would be obvious to even a freshman physicist…

    His problem is that he is extremely pig-headed and cannot bear to be corrected…this is extremely unscientific, as no person on earth can possibly know everything and never be wrong…

    And every good scientist realizes that it is extremely valuable to have any errors or shortcomings in understanding pointed out by someone more conversant with a particular subject…

    When I came upon his ridiculous ‘critique’ of the extremely rigorous Ivchenkov paper, I proceeded to point those out and even worked out the math for an example…

    But there is no talking sense to this man…you can see his article and the debate in the comments section on his blog here…

    I had the same kind of run-in with him much earlier on the 911 issue and the structural mechanics of buildings…again his understanding was so badly wrong that I was convinced he had no engineering or scientific training at all…

    I don’t have a link to that exchange right now, but I finally had to do a very lengthy exposition with extensive textbook citations to shut this man up…

    His temperament is simply not suited to science because he is incapable of learning from others…so mostly he is capable of contributing very near to nothing…

  81. This is all subterfuge… no one is going to attack Iran. All this is, is a show to keep control on the Saudi black gold!

  82. anon[260] • Disclaimer says:

    Saudi royals will not survive this. Next year is election year- impeachment circus , Israel post election situation, and further consolidation by Syria will make things worse for Saudi royals.

    They might throw out the Pakistani labors to force Pakistan come to their help militarily . India wills edie the opportunity or will try. Its not looking good. But nothing Saud does, does it right or premeditated and thoughtful unless they are killing someone .

    • Replies: @Republic
  83. Druid says:
    @Dumbo

    The taliban stopped discussions on a pipeline through Afghanistan because the us was Jewish them down on price for said use of their land. That’s a big part of it. Other reason is mineral wealth! Also plain old scumminess in picking on a country that they thought would be easy to defeat.

    • Replies: @NoseytheDuke
  84. You cold be right. I did only red German fairy tales stories where one of them was story of Munchhausen when I was little. I have also seen the movie.
    So the author whoever it was only did choose the name for the hero because of the real Munchhausen
    ability to tell fairy tales. (Kind of making fun from real Munchhausen.)

    • Replies: @renfro
    , @FB
  85. renfro says:
    @Ilyana_Rozumova

    Munchhausen by Proxy syndrome is a better subject on a politics blog…lol

    And you can observe hundreds of the diseased examples in congress.
    They make other countries sick by screwing with them…then they don their super power tutus …bloviate about they are going to ‘ save’ us or whoever……and call press conferences and appear on TV to be praised as self sacrificing ‘care takers’ and heros.

  86. FB says: • Website
    @Ilyana_Rozumova

    Well at least we today we have another real Munchhausen…Anatoly Karlin…and he’s even funnier than the original…

    We are truly ‘blessed’…LOL

  87. tac says:
    @J

    Hey don’t look now but these Yemeni soldiers have just captured three Saudi brigades (killing some 200 taken another 2000 prisoner), destroyed some 15 US made military vehicles, captured hundreds other military vehicles, seized countless weapons. Just look at the newly release video in the link of what these rag-tag Yemeni soldiers did to well-funded Saudi soldiers/mercenaries. You’re either willfully ignorant or a typical lying Jew who tries to gas-light western audiences. What a joke you are.

    https://www.presstv.com/Detail/2019/09/29/607432/Yemeni-Army-release-footage-of-Victory-from-God-Almighty-offensive-against-Najran

    • Replies: @AnonFromTN
  88. anon[113] • Disclaimer says:
    @By-tor

    🙁 The video that Miro posted doesn’t show that part, but when I saw the endless column of prisoners, my first thought was, wow, what sitting ducks.

    My 2nd thought was, what a rag-tag bunch. Of course the Saudis bombed these poor men who came from around the world to fight for wages. Sad, sad, sad.

  89. Erebus says:
    @FB

    Second, lasers need HUGE amounts of power to operate at useful ranges…lasers, like all radiating energy obey the inverse square law…

    You might want to take that one back FB. The inverse sq law applies to point sources, which lasers are most definitely not. A theoretically perfect laser would not exhibit any losses at all, though of course even the best today have some beam divergence. That divergence is not quite linear.

    Depending on optics design, the beam tends to converge to its “beam waist” after which it begins to diverge. The distance to the “waist” is governed by the optics as is the subsequent divergence. Obviously, laser weapons designers would aim for the longest possible distance to the “beam waist”.

    You’re certainly right though that laser weapons require enormous power. Dust particles, water vapour etc. and the kinetic energy equation works against lasers. Photons just aren’t heavy enough to make even the velocity of light very destructive, so you have to project an astronomical number of them to do any damage.

    Flipping back to drones vs missiles discussion, one can’t help but be struck by the uncanny, pin-point accuracy with which things got hit. We’re apparently talking about a CEP measured in inches/cms, far beyond the accuracy of anybody else’s cruise missiles.

    That leads me to think it was a sophisticated hybrid attack.

    To whit: I’m thinking of small, locally deployed, manually controlled quad-copter type drones being used to paint the targets with ordinary target lasers for final guidance. IOW, the missiles used INS/GPS for the long haul, switching over to laser guidance supplied by drones holding station over targets for the terminal stage.

    I can’t otherwise account for the almost formulaic consistency of the hits, and lack of misses that I’ve seen in the available photographs. If that’s how they did it, it’s brilliantly asymmetrical.

    Be interested in your thoughts.

    • Replies: @FB
  90. Sean says:
    @Carroll Price

    At present Trump is concerned with China, which is the rising power he was elected to stop defeating the US by economic means. That America did not attack Iran despite them attacking international shipping with limpet mines and lying through their teeth about it shows the powerlessness of the US. to deal with what is at present considered more of a nuisance than a threat to US primacy.

    As one of the most educated and scientifically advanced countries in the Middle East, Iran could have developed nuclear weapons long ago if they had wanted to.

    If true, that would entail a real possibility of Iran having secretly got much further in developing a thermonuclear weapon that we know about. They may be able to assemble a useable one very quickly if sanctions are lifted. China might secretly give them what they need in order to divert Trump.

    Supposing some new Iranian leadership thought they could use their nuclear bomb through proxies and get away with lying about it? Iran cannot be trusted. Luckily for everyone, especially them, they are too backward to be more than an annoyance, for now.

    • LOL: bluedog
    • Replies: @RadicalCenter
  91. The Saudis’ Achilles heel is not their oil infrastructure. THAT is the Achiiles’ heel of the Western World, principally the USA and Europe. The cutoff of oil would mean total Western economic collapse and the end of the petrodollar as the world’s reserve currency.

    (NOT a collapse for Russia. US and Western sanctions have made it, not only self-sufficient in energy, but also self-sufficient in food, minerals, and manufacturing as well.)

    No, the Achilles’ heel of KSA is the fact that the entire country is run by foreigners. Native Saudis are bone lazy, arrogant, unskilled creeps who could not run a dog-catching truck by themselves. For all their diamond-encrusted cars and gold-hemmed robes, they rely utterly and totally on skilled foreigners to run everything in their country, except their stables of camels, which they keep for the occasional sexual encounter.

    When the bombs begin to fall on Riyadh and the rockets begin to fly, all those foreigners will flee by any means possible, as fast as possible. And they will not return. The ENTIRE Saudi economy will cease to function, not just the oil part of it. Permanently. Back to their tents and sheep’s eyeballs.

    And this is the unspoken Achilles’ heel, also, of Israel. When the Hezbollah rockets – all 65,000 of them – begin to fall on Israel, all the French, German, British, Russian and American Jews in that country – or about 75% of the population – will dust off their old foreign passports and flee back to wherever they came from, leaving Israel with a 5-to-1 Palestinian majority and no skilled Jews to run the infrastructure.

    Iran does not just hold all the cards in this poker game. They are the dealer and the bank too. I really, really hope Israel decides to attack Iran unilaterally. That would mean the end of the Jewish State, the American Empire, the Kingdom of Saud, Britain, and the European Union – all the crazies who now are creating havoc in the world and murdering millions in the process.

  92. @Druid

    IIRC those failed pipeline talks with the Taliban took place in Switzerland in mid 2001.

  93. Truth3 says:

    Chosenite Example of the Day…

    You may now return to your scheduled programming.

  94. Ahoy says:

    @ Lemuel Gulliver

    Very astute comment. The comparison of a white race with ample scientific foundation country(IRAN) with a camel driving artificial country(KSA) is very good.

    Lawrence of Arabia is lost somewhere in the deep of yesterday. Change is coming in full force. One either flows with it or will be drowned by it.

  95. @tac

    It’s an open secret that Saudi army cannot fight its way out of a paper bag. Judging by the fact that their airplane bombed their own troops, it was manned by Saudi pilots. Compared to Saudis, Houthies are outstanding warriors. But wait until Iran actually gets into the fray. Then you’d see what real warriors are. That’s why the Empire talks the talk, but is reluctant to walk the walk.

    • Agree: tac
    • Replies: @tac
  96. FB says: • Website
    @Erebus

    lasers, like all radiating energy obey the inverse square law…

    You might want to take that one back FB. The inverse sq law applies to point sources, which lasers are most definitely not.

    Sorry E…you have some of the basics correct about the focus point and divergence after that…but the radiating energy does indeed follow the inverse square law, as all radiating energy must…

    The only thing the laser is doing is like using a magnifying glass to create a very hot beam on a piece of paper at the glass focal point and even set it alight…

    Depending on optics design, the beam tends to converge to its “beam waist” after which it begins to diverge. The distance to the “waist” is governed by the optics as is the subsequent divergence. Obviously, laser weapons designers would aim for the longest possible distance to the “beam waist”.

    Again, this is true…but the devil is in the details when you start working out the math…Let’s start with an illustration of the divergence starting from ‘W0’…which is the beam radius at its narrowest point…this is where the beam exits the laser…

    The Gaussian Beam Waist…note the range ‘Zr’…This is the Rayleigh range…up to this point the beamwidth does also increase…just not as much as after the Rayleigh range point…where the beam really starts to widen…

    So let’s get into the math…obviously if you want to use a laser as a weapon you want to keep that beam within the Rayleigh range, or the long focus point as you put it…and you want to achieve a tactically useful distance…a distance of a few meters is not going to be of any use as a weapon in anything other than hand to hand combat…

    The Rayleigh range is given as: pi * W0^2 / lambda, which is the laser light wavelength…

    So if we want a useful range of let’s say 600 meters [which isn’t a heck of a lot if you’re dealing with an incoming hypersonic antiship missile like the Zirkon]…then your W0 radius needs to be 1 cm, for a spot diameter of 2 cm at its narrowest point…that gives a Rayleigh range of 590 m…

    But then we have to find the focusing angle which is going to be tiny…the half angle is given by: lambda / pi / W0…that works out to 0.0001 degrees…

    That’s going to take some incredible optics…I’m not sure that’s even possible with present day technology…

    But in any case the discussion is about inverse square…if we now take into consideration the irradiance…which is the power we have applied to an area [in watts per meter squared]…we find that the power does decrease by inverse square, just like from a point source…

    The only difference being that our source is not a sphere which area is defined by 4*pi*r^2…

    …but is instead defined by the beam spread which is tangent squared times theta [our tiny angle]…

    Irradiance power thus decreases by the square of distance, but our constant multiplier is a lot bigger…so yes, you do have a point that the laser beam can bring a lot of power to bear on its focus point…but it does still obey the laws of physics and inverse square…

    A good explanation with math here…

    Anyway…as to the precise targeting we saw in the Abqaik attack, yes it’s possible they could have used laser designation…this requires collaborators on the ground near the target, which the Houthis have acknowledged…

    [The Eastern provinces are Shia majority and heavily oppressed by the barbaric Wahabbi regime]…

    I had earlier mentioned another possibility that is even simpler…take a store-bought quadcopter drone…these are very silent and inconspicuous…instead of a camera, put a small radio emitter that is going to broadcast a signal in the frequency between 190 kHz and 1750 kHz…in which we find the standard AM radio range…

    This simply broadcasts in all directions which is why it’s called non=directional, as opposed to other aviation radio navaids that provide directional radio beams…

    This band, called non-directional beacon in aviation, has been used for many decades with very simple radio gear inside the airplane that homes in on the signal…

    Park that little drone on top of the target and boom…the radio in the cruise missile is tuned to that and when it gets within even a few miles of the terminal area, it homes in like a laser on that signal…with the autopilot directed by the NDB radio…

    This is super simple and inexpensive gear…

    The cockpit indicator, called an automatic direction finder [ADF] points right to the radio source…the radio receiver is below it…the indicator is actually not necessary, just the signal from the receiver is routed to the autopilot which steers to the course…

    I’m continuing to work on these additional aspects of the Quds-1 technical analysis…so more to come on navigation [For the en route portion of flight it will be inertial nav system, which is now also dirt cheap with aviation grade gyros derived from the MEMS technology used in anti-lock brakes and stability systems for cars…]

    The INS system is corrected for drift by satnav [combined GPS/Glonass as used in every smartphone…LOL]

    Also will be covering the airframe structure…wreckage appears to show carbon fiber composite construction…again this is something that was available only to the Lockheeds of the world a couple of decades ago…now hobbyists are building their own aircraft in their garage with this stuff…

    The time of the everyman’s cruise missile has arrived…all you need is the knowledge and off the shelf stuff…

    No these things aren’t going to be as sophisticated as a T-Hawk…but the capability is only marginally less…[especially when the ‘defense’ consists of Patriots…LOL]

    Basically these things rely on their small size, very fast speed and flying fairly low…so the reaction time of air defense is reduced by the time they pick it up on radar…if they even do…

    The fact is that the US has done virtually NOTHING in terms of actual defensive weapons…it’s all been about offense…

    • Replies: @Eagle Eye
    , @Erebus
  97. @Sean

    Well, Iran could devastate Saudi oil drilling and exporting, sending world oil prices drastically higher for many months at a minimum.

    With gas costing six and seven dollars per gallon at the pump — maybe eight bucks in California and Hawaii — and the cost of everything from groceries to clothes increased due to higher shipping and trucking costs, the USA and Canada would enter a substantial recession at least. That sounds like more than an annoyance.

  98. Republic says:
    @anon

    see Moon of Alabama story about recent shooting of Saudi’s king chief bodyguard in Jeddah.Saudi Arabia –

    Another Defeat In Yemen – King’s Bodyguard Killed

  99. @anon

    Fully agree with you about Israel.

    No, I arrived at the conclusion that Islam wants us all subjugated, forcibly converted, or killed, because their big book says so clearly. Applying the absurd doctrine of abrogation, one can see which prevails, the peaceful and reasonable and voluntary or the coercive.

    Having said that, Muslims and anyone else with more traditional, less perverse, less morally confused views on men and women, family, and sexual relations, can rightly be disgusted by the popular culture of Hollywood and much of the USA and the West. Muslims and others can rightly want to keep that influence away from their children.

    And I respect and cheer for Muslim parents who refuse to submit their children to indoctrination by perverts. It wasn’t Jewish or Christian parents, for example, who are fighting a long battle against perverted “sex Ed” in British government schools.

    Hell, we live in the USA and deeply love what is left of our core people and culture. So we want the currently-promoted homosexual, mentally-ill (“transgender”), atomized anti-family culture away from our own children as much as possible, just as a decent Muslim (or presumably orthodox / “from ice” Jew) would.

    And we are well aware of the greatly disproportionate role of certain inbred people in twisting children’s minds through their “media.” (No, I’m referring not to Pakistanis, but to ANOTHER inbred group.)

  100. @der einzige

    He pushes the people to vote for Trump, as he did past elections, and as he is probably payed for doing, along with some other “bloggers” and “analysts”

  101. For the sake of peace and survival of the human race, I hope he’s right.

    https://news.yahoo.com/iran-general-says-destroying-israel-171811079.html

  102. Eagle Eye says:
    @FB

    frequency between 190 kHz and 1750 kHz

    That frequency range has long been used for simple aircraft navigation (ADR) over a range of a few hundred miles.

    Those frequencies would NOT work to “paint” targets to be hit by UAVs. Transmission antennas of the target beacon would be quite large, and the long wavelength could not provide anywhere near the pinpoint accuracy needed.

    Most likely, the attackers used simple laser or microwave devices hand-operated by scouts at close range to paint the Saudi targets.

    • Replies: @peterAUS
    , @FB
  103. peterAUS says:
    @Eagle Eye

    Most likely, the attackers used simple laser or microwave devices hand-operated by scouts at close range to paint the Saudi targets.

    Scouts within LOS?! There?!

    Whoah…..like SAS?

    You sure that Houthis would have that level of expertise and/or related equipment (insertion/extraction process included)? Local support network?!

    Stretch. A huge one, IMHO.

    • Replies: @Commentator Mike
  104. @peterAUS

    peterAUS,

    I think the Houthis claimed they had some support on the ground in that attack. Saudi is such a closed society so we don’t really know all that goes on there. I believe that refinery is located in the Shiite part and there has been a kind of insurgency going on there in the past with Shiites rounded up, jailed, and executed. There could be a lot of resentment among that population and some could have travelled overseas for training. Wouldn’t be difficult to do.

    https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/2011–12_Saudi_Arabian_protests

    • Replies: @peterAUS
    , @tac
  105. peterAUS says:
    @Commentator Mike

    Be that as it may, I find it hard to accept that.

    The combination of:
    a) need/level of security of those facilities (security services involved in protecting them) and
    b) skills/expertise required to get the job done (get into position, maintain it, communicate with the launch sites, get the beams on targets etc….and escape, after that…)
    feels quite unlikely to me.

    Now…that’s for Houthis.
    Iranians, on the other hand, are another matter.

    Anyway, either way one cuts it, as I said somewhere before, I believe there was a BIG Iranian part in this play.

    And, the last but definitely not the list, we do need to keep in mind what is really important in this:
    Facts do not matter in plays/games like this.
    Actions/inactions in the future in the region will have nothing to do with what really happened here.
    Cato Senior thing.

    Anyway.

    • Replies: @By-tor
    , @Commentator Mike
  106. FB says: • Website
    @Eagle Eye

    Well…generally the non-directional beacon is less accurate than other radio navaids…

    The antenna size need not be very big as long as it is sized precisely to a fraction of the wavelength…and if you are using the higher part of the spectrum, about 1.5 MHz it can work quite well…

    The key is its integration into other nav equipment…

    All modern avionics on passenger jets and combat aircraft still have an NDB receiver…when it is slaved to a gyro compass [known as EHSI, for electronic horizontal situation indicator, which is a directional gyro] the accuracy can be quite good…this is found in so-called glass cockpits…

    That’s why NDBs are still used in the terminal environment…

    Back in the day before there was GPS pilots would often tune their ADF to local AM stations which are in the higher band…I can tell you from experience that you can fly right over the antenna, even at night…the trick without a gyro compass [like in a light, rudimentary aircraft] is calculating your wind drift…which takes some piloting skill…if you have a gyro compass, it does the wind correction for you…

    So there’s a lot more to it than what you are presenting here…

    Also my technical analysis was about the Quds-1 cruise missile, not any kind of UAV…this missile would for sure be using off the shelf nav equipment that includes the entire suite of glass cockpit instruments…this is readily available fairly cheaply for the light aircraft market and is certainly good enough to do the job…

    Homing on a microwave signal would of course be more accurate, but this requires some kind of radar-homing receiver as would be found on a HARM anti-radiation missile for example…

    This certainly is not rocket science either and could be doable…but certainly NDB has a role to play here, as it continues to in modern commercial and combat aviation…

    I will be analyzing the navigation and guidance aspect of the possibilities for the Quds-1 in some detail…as well as other aspects, including the airframe structure etc…

    As for laser guidance…that is not without problems…you would need a spotter on the ground with laser equipment, instead of just parking a quadcopter and forgetting about it…there is all kinds of security in these kinds of facilities, so that would not be easy to pull off…

    It is definitely premature to say, as you do, with certainty that it was laser guidance…

    We also keep in mind that just satnav is accurate to within about 3 meters…so that is plenty accurate for the final approach…

    • Replies: @Eagle Eye
  107. By-tor says:
    @peterAUS

    It doesn’t benefit the Iranians to be caught on Saudi soil at all, and they have shown that they aren’t that careless. Americans on the other hand were forced out of the KSA after the 1996 Kobar Towers attack, but US detachments are again showing up there in increasing numbers.

    The Yemenis sprang an encirclement trap that cost the Saudis 2 or 3 brigades over 72 hours. Most of the gore has been edited out of these latest news videos so that Alphabet-Google-Pentagon doesn’t censor them. Plenty of destroyed Ohkosh LATV’s.

    https://www.youtube.com/channel/UCgXES1L48blAskcwfOuwHlg

  108. peterAUS says:

    Listen……..nahh…..it’s O.K.

    ….2 or 3 brigades……….

    Brigades, a? Two, even three…

    That in the clip one was “brigade hardware” I presume. And those……creatures…with raised arms…..in the second the captured members of those …ahm…”brigades”? Officers and men…..

    As I said, it’s O.K.

    I, personally, find just one thing interesting in all this: more data is available on the Internet more idiotic an average viewer/commentator is.
    Not your types, mind you. I respect people with an agenda even if the delivery is crude in extreme.
    It’s about an average, interested, person in the developed world who buys that.

    All good.

  109. tac says:
    @AnonFromTN

    Absolutely correct! I have a lot of respect for the Houthi fighters. I saw a video where one Houthi fighter who go shot by a sniper only to have another Houthi come to is rescue. He picked up his wounded fighter, put him on his shoulders and carried him to safety while somehow managing not to get shot. That is text book courage.

    Here is a slightly extended (just under an hour long) version with real time fighting scenes, and material not seen in the other videos.

  110. tac says:
    @Commentator Mike

    Hear it from spokesperson of the Yemen Armed Forces Brigadier Yehya Saree, :

    [MORE]

    An important role was played by cooperating national elements from within the ranks of the enemy forces, and from within the ranks of the deceived and the traitors was a factor of success.
    […]
    he number of missile operations carried out by the Missile Forces in the first phase of the operation ‘Victory from God’: 9 operations, including the operation of ramming Jizan airport with 10 ballistic missiles.

    – Also, the Drones Forces carried out successive strikes against hostile targets posing threat to our forces which were carrying out the large operation, the strikes of the Drone Forces disrupted enemy forces and contributed to the failure of his plans.

    The operations of the Drone Forces extended to the depth of the aggression countries, especially Saudi Arabia, with more than 31 operations, this includes targeting a sensitive military target in Riyadh (Saudi Capital).
    […]
    Within 24 hours, the armed forces succeeded in blocking the movement of enemy warplanes by targeting its most important military bases and airports used in dual and joint operations between the Drone Forces and the Missile Forces.
    […]
    Specialized units of our advanced ground forces began to encircle large groups of enemy forces in Najran axis after advancing in large numbers to ambushes and traps according to the plan.

    According to the plan, our forces allowed additional numbers to be pushed by the enemy into the trap as part of the surge to attack our forces.

    Specialized military formations took the task of cutting off enemy supply lines, the rear lines, from two different routes from the east and west, then our advanced forces tightened the siege on those forces from all four sides units of infantry, armor, engineering, and artillery from the heart of the front began a massive offensive operation.

    One of the most prominent results of the operation in its early hours was the siege of various groups of enemy forces and attack fortified military positions.

    During the first day, the operation resulted in heavy casualties among the enemy forces, the seizure of weapons and the surrender of thousands of deceived persons (traitor Yemenis within Saudi troops)
    […]
    Saudi warplanes are bombing the mercenaries of the Fateh Brigade after they surrendered to the Army and Popular Committees.

    Warplanes are now targeting the gatherings of about 500 war prisoners, targeted them with 6 raids.

    Our forces attempted to provide first aid to enemy casualties as a result of the airstrikes, however, continued heavy flights and dozens of additional raids have resulted in further casualties among the deceived enemy forces.

    This is another scene, too, after they were hit by aggression and cut into pieces and were trying to surrender to our troops from the Army and the Popular Committees.

    What happened to the deceived mercenaries is a genocide carried out by the warplanes of the Aggressors which stepped up its raids to prevent them from fleeing first, and also to prevent them from surrendering to our troops and they had no third choice.

    https://www.syrianews.cc/yemen-armed-forces-deliver-massive-blow-to-saudi-coalition/

  111. Eagle Eye says:
    @FB

    It is definitely premature to say, as you do, with certainty that it was laser guidance…

    Agree in substance, but I expressed no such “certainty.” The point of the earlier statement is what additional navigation aids the Houthis could have used assuming their missiles did not simply rely on GPS/Glonass. If additional aids were used, the original statement stands:

    Most likely, the attackers used simple laser or microwave devices hand-operated by [spotters] at close range [to “paint” targets to be hit by missiles.]

  112. Erebus says:
    @FB

    Irradiance power thus decreases by the square of distance, but our constant multiplier is a lot bigger…

    Your points are well taken. I neglected to look at the far field behaviour of non-point source radiators, and insofar stand corrected. H/T.

    As for drone guidance of cruise missiles…
    As a sailor, I’ve some experience with radio beacons and RDFs (as sailors called them), but these have fallen into disuse simply because they didn’t deliver information such as range with any degree of accuracy. Due presumably to the long wavelengths being used, even the old Loran-C system of triangulated AM beacons could barely place one reliably within, say, a few 100M of actual position. I haven’t even seen either on a boat in 20 yrs.

    The reason I don’t like the radio beacon proposal is that even with a large vertically polarized antennas to broadcast their very long wavelength (100s of meters) signal, and both a sense antenna and a rotating loop antenna inside the missile to extract direction from the signal, I can’t see them guiding anything to a precise location in 3D space.

    Please recall the photo of those 4 tanks that were hit in almost the exactly same location on each tank. I’ve also seen photos of a row of reactor towers of some sort that had apparently duplicate pinpoint strikes dead centre about halfway up their height. Those photos suggest to me that the target wasn’t the tank/tower as such, but a specific location on that tank/tower. That’s a qualitative difference in targetting accuracy and so indicates to me that missiles had to be drawn to a very tightly defined point in 3D space rather than a nearby object or signal.

    There may be other possibilities, but laser pointers are cheap, readily available, lightweight, and can carry more than sufficient power in an 18650 battery. They can also be had in the infrared or ultra-violet range and so stay invisible to the naked eye if deemed necessary. In the hands of a capable operator, a quad-copter drone can paint a pretty steady dot on the target object that the missile “looks for” as it enters visual range. Thus it provides a tightly defined location in 3D space by default without need of triangulation. The missile simply aims for the dot without concern for altitude or range.

    The Houthis stated they had local help, and both handheld and drone-bourne lasers fit that scenario. Given the number of successful hits, I’d think that 100% handheld would require too many people on the ground inside the facility for secrecy. Or…

    … I wonder if a team of surveyors with laser transits & range finders getting an early start on their day happened to be in the vicinity…

    • Replies: @FB
  113. @Longfisher

    You join the Golf Club, you play golf or sit in the clubhouse. You do not arrive on the first tee with a hockey stick. They won’t let you play. Tulsi’s a good hockey player but hopefully not a golfer.

  114. Well done Gabbard. But will you say so much if Trump offers the same to Israel? Yes or No

  115. FB says: • Website
    @Erebus

    The Houthis stated they had local help, and both handheld and drone-bourne lasers fit that scenario. Given the number of successful hits, I’d think that 100% handheld would require too many people on the ground inside the facility for secrecy.

    I agree…the accuracy does seem rather stunning…for instance this stabilization tower…

    We also note the very impressive damage to what is a very substantial steel structure…this is not going to be caused by a small drone carrying a couple of pounds of explosive…which is where the Quds-1 cruise missile comes in…

    …laser pointers are cheap, readily available, lightweight, and can carry more than sufficient power in an 18650 battery. They can also be had in the infrared or ultra-violet range and so stay invisible to the naked eye if deemed necessary.

    In the hands of a capable operator, a quad-copter drone can paint a pretty steady dot on the target object that the missile “looks for” as it enters visual range.

    Thus it provides a tightly defined location in 3D space by default without need of triangulation. The missile simply aims for the dot without concern for altitude or range.

    Very well stated points…

    I also like your idea of survey tripods for painting the target as this presents a clever way of mitigating the security issues on site…

    But painting the target is just half the equation…the missile also needs an optical seeker of very high quality, PLUS some way to compute a signal that is going to go to the movable control surfaces on the tail that steer the vehicle…

    This is not of the shelf stuff and represents a considerable step up from things like the glass cockpit equipment and INS that are now available cheaply to operators of light aircraft…

    Here is an illustrative figure showing the GBU-10 laser guided bomb…from a good technical article on laser guidance by Carlo Kopp…

    It is true of course that the low frequency beacon is not very accurate on its own…but the fact is that it is still useful in modern commercial and combat aircraft, in conjunction with the INS and sophisticated gyro systems…as part of a glass cockpit the old beacon has actually found new life…

    These glass cockpit systems for light aircraft are readily available and cheap…and these actually offer capability basically on a par with the very expensive equipment on large airplanes…the main difference is the fact that the commercial airplane stuff has to be 100 percent bulletproof…[or at least it had to be in the FAA we used to have before the 737 MAX came along…]

    Now I’m not super keen on the beacon idea either, other than it is useful in the terminal area and already comes in these off the shelf avionics packages…and is well integrated…for instance these can use signals from two beacons, plus the INS and compass gyro to triangulate a very precise course…

    NDB is still used widely to define airways on which commercial jets fly…and they are often the only instrument approach on many smaller airports…they’re good for instrument landing condition with cloud ceilings as low as 500 ft…the gold standard ILS precision landing system is only a couple of hundred feet better…

    My point is it’s there already in the off the shelf package and one could put it to good use…it’s a different ballgame from just a small plane with just the ADF or a boat with a similar radio…

    I thought also about VOR which is on the VHF frequency and is also used for so-called non-precision approaches…this certainly has advantages in accuracy, but the signal is directional and would be difficult to properly implement on say a quadcopter that you just park on or near the target…

    It is an intriguing question…the accuracy certainly does seem very high…again, I would not be shockingly surprised if these missiles have the optical seekers needed to hit a laser-designated target…the Iranians would for sure have that kind of equipment…

    Some good points in this discussion, which I will keep in mind as I move onto looking at the guidance question in my continuing exploration of the amazing Quds-1…

    Appreciate your input E…electrical is not my forte…other than knowing how to use the stuff in the flight deck…

    • Replies: @Anonymous
    , @Erebus
  116. Anonymous[321] • Disclaimer says:
    @FB

    What an interesting discussion you two are having. Two things come to mind

    One – if the two hits are so close together, the first hit would have dislodged any drones parked directly on the target. Rather, some kind of electromagnetic illumination would have to be painted on from a 3rd location, either by drone or person.

    Two – if they used laser pens, surely night time would have given better accuracy?

  117. Anonymous[321] • Disclaimer says:

    What about video guidance? Maybe the ground team took a video from a drone flying all the way in to the target from the same approach angle as the cruise missile. The cruise missile could then take its own video with a camera in the nose cone and twiddle its flaps until the two videos synchronised. I’m pretty sure calculating offsets between a couple of similar 2D images is old school now, but could it be done fast enough with the onboard hardware?

    Edit: assuming a good smartphone can do 30 images per second and assuming the missile is coming in at 600mph/300m/s,that’s 10 meters per image. Seems plausible.

    • Replies: @FB
  118. Erebus says:
    @FB

    But painting the target is just half the equation…the missile also needs an optical seeker of very high quality, PLUS some way to compute a signal that is going to go to the movable control surfaces on the tail that steer the vehicle…

    I remind that laser guided anti-tank missiles have become available from a number of sources (incl N. Korea), and the Houthis/Iranians are nothing if not innovative at adapting technologies across types. I see no reason that those as skilled in the art as they appear to be couldn’t have migrated LGATM technologies across to the Quds platform. In fact, I’d think it would be their first order of business.

    Some ATMs like the Kornet have a range of >5km, which I’d think affords plenty of time (~20 sec, a lifetime in digital electronics) for an incoming INS/GPS guided cruise missile to switch its guidance command over to its optical seeker – activating its seeker say 10km out, and making the switch immediately it got a lock on to its pre-painted target. After that it’s all about aerodynamics and control theory and Iran has already shown us aces ‘n spades in those fields.

  119. FB says: • Website

    That’s a good point E…

    At 365 knots / 420 mph which is the reduced power setting on the TJ-100 engine, it would take ~26 seconds to cover 5 km…

    It would require a flight computer that is capable of switching from the fairly standard guidance modes that come with the off the shelf glass cockpit stuff [you don’t need the displays of course, just the avionics]…to the laser guidance in the final approach to target…

    That scenario would certainly make for deadly accuracy…

    I’m also looking into microwave homing as this would require only parking a small drone transmitting phone-like signals…any ideas for on-board receivers for that kind of stuff…?

    I am fairly certain the Houthis are getting a lot of technical help from Iran…but at the same time they are probably building their own technical capabilities [an probably have been for some time]…training at Iranians institutions and universities etc…it’s better to teach a man how to fish than to give him a fish, comes to mind…

    A lot of people just assume [including the usual ignoramuses on this board] the Houthis are just illterate goat-herders…but Iran is a major technological power…there is no reason not to believe the Iranians are showing the Houthis how…

    • Replies: @Erebus
  120. FB says: • Website
    @Anonymous

    What you’re generally describing is digitized scene-mapping area correlation [DSMAC]…which is used on sophisticated cruise missiles like the T-Hawk…

    Here they rely on sat photos and an onboard optical sensor in the visual waveband range basically tries to match up to the view ‘out the window’…it’s used during the en-route portion of flight as a correction for INS drift…but could be used in the terminal area if imagery is available…

    An interesting idea…again a little more complex but probably within reach of Iranian capabilities…

    Thanks for your input…btw, the Quds 1 is going to fly between 400 and 500 mph…even a T-Hawk could not likely reach 600…except perhaps a dive from higher altitude…simply not enough engine power in the dense air down low…at 600 mph you’re getting very close to sonic velocity and will have all kinds of shockwaves forming in pockets along the wing and airframe, which will add tremendous drag…

    • Replies: @Anonymous
  121. @peterAUS

    I believe there was a BIG Iranian part in this play.

    Sure, as advisers, consultants, suppliers, trainers, instructors, financiers, and more. Evan possibly fighters and commanders disguised as Red Crescent staff, or just as Houthi tribesmen – remember Bosnia.

    If this was truly a Houthi attack and not an Israeli false flag, and if US made Partriots truly didn’t see the missiles and drones, then the US must be worried. If it gets involved in any way, there are plenty of US targets in the region for these Houthi precision attacks. The question is do the Houthis have resources to keep manufacturing these rockets in sufficient numbers and are their supply lines for such not vulnerable to US interference. Sort of like the Argentinians, they were able to get only a few Exocets and do limited damage, but if they could have obtained more they could have sunk the entire British fleet. So can these Houthis make enough of these missiles to continue firing away at will?

    • Replies: @peterAUS
    , @FB
  122. peterAUS says:
    @Commentator Mike

    Sure, as advisers, consultants, suppliers, trainers, instructors, financiers, and more. Evan possibly fighters and commanders disguised as Red Crescent staff, or just as Houthi tribesmen – remember Bosnia.

    Yep…..

    In this case, all necessary personnel to execute the mission. Plus, of course, direct and strong links with their superiors/support in Iran itself.

    There is another, better, example from Balkans. Kosovo ’99. Pastrik and Kosare. Battles.
    Albanian guns, ammo and gun crews. Western observers, intelligence and targetting systems and personnel, communications. Division of labor to dumb and smart.
    You need plenty of dumb labor; not so many smart personnel.

    It would be interesting to see what positions, in this effort, were likely to be manned by Iranians. From the very intent to final delivery. All…elements…of…the…effort.
    I am sure that some resident dorks/tech fanatics can do that.

    If this was truly a Houthi attack and not an Israeli false flag, and if US made Partriots truly didn’t see the missiles and drones, then the US must be worried.

    Don’t think so, for a couple of reasons.
    First, “Arabs at war”. I am sure Saudis are the crop of the creme in that paradigm. Pure shit.
    Those videos the character posted here about those…ahm…” brigades”. See those people? That’s the “merceneary” ouftif Saudi money can buy? That?!?
    Who, really, is manning all those systems? What’s the chain of command etc.
    Second, the regime in Washington can, if it wants, keep sending men and material there to enhance the defense.
    The third,and the most important, such events can be used as Cassus Belli.

    Pearl Harbour is one of “to go” topics in this pub. Enough said.

    If it gets involved in any way, there are plenty of US targets in the region for these Houthi precision attacks.

    Yes…………………
    And another way around.
    As

    …..re their supply lines for such not vulnerable to US interference. …

    you joking?

    Sort of like the Argentinians, they were able to get only a few Exocets and do limited damage, but if they could have obtained more they could have sunk the entire British fleet.

    Don’t go there. Falklands war, that is. Hint: you need ships and/or aircraft to launch those missiles then and there. Plus, more importantly even, crews to man all that hardware. Exocet, in any role (air, sea, land) was/is a complex system. Anyway, no desire to go there here.
    BTW, you are aware that Brits had the capability to use NAPALM, in attacks on the hills around Stanley? Think about that a bit……….

    So can these Houthis make enough of these missiles to continue firing away at will?

    War is an extension of politics by other means……………….missiles, in this case, don’t even matter.

    What do you think: if the British general public feels threatened (lack of breads and circuses….) would they approve use of tactical nuke on…say…five targets in Iran? By Americans, mind you.

  123. Anonymous[321] • Disclaimer says:
    @FB

    400-500mph makes it even easier.

    From another angle, that’s a very slow moving and relatively large projectile. How the hell did their air defences not take it down? Do they effectively have any?

  124. Erebus says:
    @FB

    I am fairly certain the Houthis are getting a lot of technical help from Iran…but at the same time they are probably building their own technical capabilities [an probably have been for some time]…training at Iranians institutions and universities etc…

    Iran has been building its networks through the M.E. (and doubtless beyond) for 40 yrs. Houthis, Shi’a Saudis/Iraqis/Bahrainis/Syrians/Lebanese/etc studying in Iranian technical schools and universities would be a fundamental part of the network building program. Some of the hi-end theoretical stuff would be held close, but implementation strategies, techniques and operator protocols are something they’d want to disseminate.

    Also, the Houthis are not alone even in Yemen. Parts of the Yemeni armed forces are cooperating with them, and Yemen’s military studied under the Soviets so one can think that some of that knowledge remains embedded, and is also being shared with the Houthis.

    The problem I have with “active” guidance from microwave or lo-freq beacons stems from the fact that the USM and everyone else has the region covered with sigint that would’ve picked up the signals as the target beacons went live. We’re talking about a dozen or more targets, and with triangulation you’d need between 2 & 3x that number of beacons turning on. I’d think that should have lit up sigint desks all over the place.

    We haven’t heard of that happening, and maybe we wouldn’t, but if it happened one would also think those signals would be recognized as targeting beacons and so would also trigger EW countermeasures. If they weren’t so recognized at the time, they sure as hell are now.

    Lasers, meanwhile are essentially undetectable and the optical seeker is just a receiver, creating no external signals of its own. If the missiles can stay “under the radar” over the long haul, there’s no practical way of thwarting the final approach.

    What this attack proves to all observers is that seriously destructive capacity is within reach of even “poor” & “primitive” players. Ironically enough, the military technology that tipped the playing field to the USM’s advantage has come around to level it.

    • Replies: @FB
    , @L.K
  125. FB says: • Website
    @Erebus

    The problem I have with “active” guidance from microwave or lo-freq beacons stems from the fact that the USM and everyone else has the region covered with sigint that would’ve picked up the signals as the target beacons went live.

    In theory…the practicality is that sigint relies heavily on airborne platforms like the JSTARS , RC-135 and EP-3…certainly those are present at the huge USAF Al Udeid air base in Qatar, and they fly regular sorties for sigint collection…but these flights are aimed at Iran and other players, not Saudi territory…

    There are some ground-based surveillance tools, but these are not nearly as effective due to short range of the radio horizon…

    Another factor is so-called security through obscurity…beacon signals are ubiquitous and so are microwave frequencies, especially in the phone bands…so they simply get lost in the crowd like a needle in a haystack…

    The Russian high precision signal for Glonass satnav, available only to the military, uses this approach, instead of encryption which the US uses…because the details of the high-precision signals have not been discolsed, it is again like searching for the needle…

    So I certainly see a role for the beacon system, perhaps not for the final approach…which I grant would probably not be accurate enough to do what the photos suggest [but still possibly accurate enough for hitting large targets]…but certainly for getting on the ‘right track’ in the wider terminal area…

    Again…these navaids are part of the modern avionics package and they are useful…otherwise they wouldn’t be included in the nav equipment that comes on a triple seven or an F22…

    I do agree with you on the potential of lasers for the precise targeting in the final approach…I had not thought of the somewhat ubiquitous optical sensors we see on other munitions such as the ATGMs you mentioned…nor the inconspicuous methods to paint the targets locally…I especially like the surveyor tripods…

    Will have to delve into this precision target aspect more thoroughly and perhaps get some specialist input as I progress with the Quds-1 breakdown…

  126. FB says: • Website
    @Anonymous

    From another angle, that’s a very slow moving and relatively large projectile [ie cruise missile]…

    This is completely wrong…

    A cruise missile like the Tomahawk is tiny compared to a fighter jet [or even a full size UAV like the Predator or Reaper], and will have an equally tiny radar signature…the Quds-1 is much smaller still…having a cross section area under half of the T-Hawk…

    As to speed…500 mph is VERY FAST in the dense air close to the ground…a passenger jet is not capable of flying that fast, that low…even frontline fighters are near full power flying at that speed near the ground…

    A UAV like the Predator only flies at 100 mph…the turboprop Reaper at 200 mph…

    A Concorde flying at Mach 2 at its cruising altitude of 60,000 ft will actually face LESS air resistance than a cruise missile flying at 500 mph near the ground…

    The Concorde’s airspeed indicator will be showing just 432 knots at this speed, while its equivalent airspeed will be just 353 knots…equivalent airspeed being that speed that is equivalent to flying at sea level standard day conditions…

    That’s 100 knots BELOW what a Tomahawk’s speed is at sea level…

    The air resistance [dynamic pressure] of the Concorde at the above stated flight condition [M 2, that’s 1,300 mph; 60,000 ft altitude] is just 423 pounds per square foot…while the T-Hawk flying at 500 mph near the ground will be much higher…640 lbf/ft^2…

    So these small and fast jet engine-powered cruise missiles are indeed difficult to detect and stop…the radar horizon for a flying target near ground level is only about 13 miles [20 km]…giving a reaction time of at most 90 seconds to track, lock on, and intercept the missile…

    This kind of input is not helpful…I suggest you read my article before proceeding to interject further in this discussion…

  127. FB says: • Website
    @Commentator Mike

    So can these Houthis make enough of these missiles to continue firing away at will?

    They don’t need to manufacture and field hundreds of these cruise missiles like the US does…just a few dozen can cripple the Saudi kingdom by striking crucial infrastructure like oil industry and the desalinization plants on which the kingdom relies for potable water…

    My assessment is that the per unit manufacturing cost for something like the Quds-1 is not in excess of about $ 200,000…and possibly a lot less…

    It relies mainly on inexpensive off the shelf components…even the jet engine is very simple as I illustrate in my article and could be produced locally…

    The Iranians have an interest in growing and building the weapons manufacturing base of all their allies, especially the Houthis who are front and center in an actual shooting war in the Middle East…

    Some observers see these Houthi long range weapons capabilities as a checkmate for the Saudi kingdom, which has proved to be a paper tiger…see B’s analyses at Moon of Alabama…[I don’t fully endorse all his conclusions but I think he is on the right track…]

    • Replies: @Commentator Mike
  128. If what we’ve recently been told in the news is all true then Houthi drones are superior to Israeli drones and Hezbollah air defenses are superior to Saudi defenses – Hezbollah have been knocking out Israeli drones in Beirut by throwing stones at them. LOL.

  129. @FB

    FB,

    b on MOA writes:

    The Yemeni armed forces claimed it attacked the facility with 10 drones (or cruise missiles). But the hits on these targets look like neither. A total of 17 hits with such precise targeting lets me assume that these were some kind of drones or missiles with man-in-the-loop control. They may have been launched from within Saudi Arabia.

    I guess we’ll never know the full truth of it. Let’s see if all this dies down or escalates further.

    • Replies: @FB
  130. FB says: • Website
    @Commentator Mike

    I like how you changed the subject there…

    I was responding to a specific question of yours regarding the Houthi capability to continue producing the cruise missiles…

    B is NOT an aeronautical engineer and has NOT done any kind of quantitative analysis on the Quds cruise missile…even if he was capable of doing such…nor is he qualified to make conclusions like the silly quote you posted…

    So your conclusion based on B’s guesswork is worth about as much as B’s guesswork…roughly zero…

    B’s thoughts on the political aspects of the conflict [ie KSA losing and throwing in the towel] was what I was referencing when I pointed you in that direction…

    Anyway…good that I know now not to bother answering your silly questions going forward…

  131. L.K says:
    @Erebus

    Also, the Houthis are not alone even in Yemen. Parts of the Yemeni armed forces are cooperating with them, and Yemen’s military studied under the Soviets so one can think that some of that knowledge remains embedded, and is also being shared with the Houthis.

    Exactly. Since 2015, several deadly Houthi/Yemeni military strikes using Soviet Tochka tactical ballistic missiles have been carried out against the Saudi/Emirati coalition.

    On 20 August 2015, during the Saudi Arabian-led intervention in Yemen, Republican Guard (Yemen) loyal to Ali Abdullah Saleh fired a Tochka targeting a Saudi base.[9]

    On 4 September 2015 Houthi forces fired a Tochka missile at Safir base in Marib killing over 100 Saudi-led coalition personnel.[10][11][12]

    On 14 December 2015 Houthi forces fired another Tochka missile at Bab Al Mandab base killing over 150 Saudi-led coalition personnel stationed there.[13][14][15]

    On 16 January 2016 Houthi forces fired a Tochka at Al Bairaq base in Marib killing dozens of Saudi-led coalition personnel [16][17]

    On 31 January 2016 Houthi forces fired a Tochka at Al Anad base in Lahj killing over 140 Saudi-led coalition personnel[18][19][20][21]

    https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/OTR-21_Tochka#Use_in_combat

    https://www.reuters.com/article/us-yemen-security-idUSKBN0TX0FW20151214

    …Sultan Mohammed Ali al-Kitbi, an Emirati officer, was killed near Taiz, Emirati state news agency WAM reported. Saudi Press Agency SPA said Colonel Abdullah al-Sahian and Kitbi “were martyred at dawn on Monday while shouldering their duties in overseeing operations to liberate Taiz”. …

    Monday’s strike was the worst reported since more than 60 Saudi and Emirati troops were killed in September when another Tochka rocket hit the al-Safer air base near Marib in northeastern Yemen.

  132. @chris

    Trannies often have to resort to prostitution to pay for operations. Gabbard is no different. He went into the military to do the final touches I’m guessing. Wait until you see what he does in his career in politics. The enthusiasm could definitely wane if/when it turns out Gabbard is just another DS con.

  133. @Anonymous

    They shut them off for Sabbath. This is well known.

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