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The murder of the Iranian hero-martyr General Soleimani created a situation in which a war between Iran and the Axis of Kindness (USA/Israel/KSA) became a real possibility but, at the very last minute, Uncle Shmuel decided that he had no stomach for a full-scale war against Iran. Wise decision.

This, however, does not at all imply that the AngloZionist Empire decided to stand by idly, far from it. The need to take quick and determined action became particularly acute following the huge anti-US demonstrations in Iraq (well over one million people in the streets!) which directly put at risk the US occupation (the MSM would call it “presence”) in both Iraq and Syria.

At the same time, Turkish President Erdogan’s refusal to remove all the “bad terrorists” from the Idlib province eventually resulted in a joint Syrian-Russian offensive to liberate the province. That offensive, in turn, clearly infuriated the Turks who warned of a major military operation to prevent the Syrians from liberating their own country.

This begs the question: are Russia and Turkey really on a collision course?

There are certainly some very worrying warning signs including a number of very harsh statements by Erdogan himself, and a suddenly re-kindled Turkish interest for the US “Patriots”.

On the ground in Idlib, the Turks have clearly provided the “bad terrorists” with a lot of support including equipment, MANPADs, tanks and armored personnel carriers. The Turks actually went as far as sending special forces to assist the “bad terrorists” directly. Finally, from footage taken by Russian and Syrian drones, and even the “bad terrorists” themselves, it appears undeniable that Turkish MLRS and regular artillery provided the “bad terrorists” with fire support.

Both sides also agree that a number of Turkish personnel were killed (they only disagree on how many and what these Turks were doing in Syria).

Finally, and most ominously, there is even a video circulating on the Internet which appears to show a US “Stinger” being fired by the “bad terrorists” at a Russian aircraft which, thank God, managed to evade it (unlike 2 Syrian Army helicopters which were shot down).

So the first conclusion that we can come to is that the Turks are already engaged in combat operations against the Syrians. For the time being, these combat operations are just below the threshold of “credible deniability”, but not by much. For example, if the Turks had shot down a Russian aircraft you can be pretty certain that the Russian public opinion (which has still not forgiven Erdogan for the downed Su-24) would have demanded that the Russian Aerospace Forces massively retaliate (just as they have every time Russian military personnel have been killed) kill scores of Turks.

The Russian position is very straightforward. It goes something like this:

The Turks committed to remove all the “bad terrorists” from the Idlib province, leaving only the “good terrorists” who are committed to a ceasefire and a political peace process in place. That did not happen. In this case, the Syrians clearly have to do themselves what the Turks refused (or could not) do. The Russian military presence in Syria, and the Russian military operations, are all absolutely legitimate and legal: the legitimate government of Syria invited the Russians in, and the UNSC agreed to back the Syrian peace process. Thus the Russian Aerospace Forces’ strikes against the “bad terrorists” are absolutely legal. Furthermore, Russia very much deplores the presence of regular Turkish units among the “bad terrorists” which is both illegal and very unhelpful. Finally, the Russian Aerospace forces have no way to determine who sits in which tank, or who provides artillery cover for the operations of the “bad terrorists”. Thus, if Turkish military personnel are killed in Syrian or Russian operations, this would be entirely the fault of Ankara.

So far the Turkish military operation has been rather unsuccessful and limited.

But Erdogan is now promising a major attack.

Will that happen and what can the Turks really do?

First and foremost, Turkey does not have the means to enter into a full-scale conflict with Russia. Turkey cannot do that for political, economic and military reasons:

Political: the simple truth is that Turkey (and Erdogan) desperately need Russian political support, not only towards the West, but also towards Iraq, Iran or Israel. Furthermore, Erdogan has now clearly deeply alienated the Europeans who are fed up with Erdogan’s constant threats to open the “refugees” spigot. As for the Turks, they have already known for years that the EU will never accept them and that NATO will not support Turkey in its (very dangerous) operations in Iraq and Syria.

Economic: Turkey’s economy really suffered from the sanctions introduced by Russia following the shooting down of the Russian Su-24 by Turkish aircraft (backed by USAF fighters). What was true then is even more true now, and the Turkish public opinion understands that.

Military: the past years have been absolutely disastrous for the Turkish armed forces which were purged following the coup attempt against Erdogan. This sorry state of affairs is indirectly confirmed by the very poor performance of Turkish forces in Syria.

What about a conflict limited to Syria?

Again, Turkey is in a bad position. For one thing, the Syrians and, even more so, the Russians control the airspace above Idlib. The Turks are so frustrated with this state of affairs that they have now reportedly asked the US to deploy Patriot missiles in southern Turkey. This is a rather bizarre request, especially considering that Turkey purchased S-400s from Russia or how pathetically the Patriots actually performed (recently in the KSA and elsewhere before that). This, by the way, might well be a case of fake news since, apparently, there are no Patriots available for Turkey even if the US agreed to sell.

Then there is the bellicose rhetoric we hear from Erdogan. For example, he recently declared that:

“The regime, backed by Russian forces and Iran-backed militants, are continuously attacking civilians, committing massacres and shedding blood, (…) I hereby declare that we will strike regime forces everywhere from now on regardless of the [2018] deal if any tiny bit of harm is dealt to our soldiers at observation posts or elsewhere.”

That kind of language is, of course, very dangerous but, at least so far, the Turkish operation has been both limited and unsuccessful. Syrian President Assad was not impressed and declared that:

It also means that we must not rest idle, but prepare for the battles to come. As a result, the battle to liberate the Aleppo and Idlib countryside continues regardless of some empty sound bubbles coming from the north (vain threats from Erdogan), just as the battle continues to liberate all of Syrian soil, crush terrorism and achieve stability.

In the meantime, in Iraq, the US has apparently dug-in and categorically refuses to leave. In practical terms this means that the Iraqis will have to step up their anti-US campaign both politically (more protests and demonstrations) and militarily (more IEDs, convoy attacks and, probably soon, drone, cruise missile and ballistic missile attacks on US targets in Iraq). I don’t believe that the US will be able to sustain that kind of pressure in the mid to long term, especially not in an election year (which promises to be hellish anyway). Right now, the Idiot-in-Chief seems to think that threatening Iraq with “very big sanctions” is the way to restore good relationships. In reality, all this will do is to further inflame anti-US feelings in Iraq and the rest of the region.

Then there is the tactical situation. Please check these two maps: (click on map for a higher resolution)

The part in red shows the government controlled areas. The light blue (or light green on the 2nd map) show the Turkish deployment. The part in olive green (or darker green on the 2nd map) shows the parts of the Idlib province which are still under Takfiri occupation. Finally, the small region around Tell Rifaat are controlled by the Kurds.

The Syrian forces, backed by Russia, have now pushed back the latest Turkish+Takfiri attack north and west of Aleppo and they are now attacking the southern tip of the Takfiri occupation zone around the Zawiya mountain and highlands, see here:

The Syrians have options here. They can either gradually push north, or they can try to envelop the Takfiri forces in a “cauldron”. Finally, the Syrians would score a major victory if they succeeded in regaining control of the highway between Aleppo and Latakia (in blue on the map).

As for the Turkish-backed Takfiris, they are pushing very hard towards Idlib, so far with only moderate and temporary successes (they typically take a location at huge cost in lives and equipment and then cannot hold on to it as soon as the Syrians and Russians bomb the crap out of their newly conquered positions).

ORDER IT NOW

All of this is taking place while Syrian, Russian, Turkish and US patrols are regularly meeting, often in rather tense situations which could quickly escalate into a firefight or, even worse, an open battle. There is also the risk of an incident in the air since these four nations also conduct air operations over Syria. And, just like in the case of the ground operations, Syrian and Russian air operations are legal under international law, Turkish, US or Israeli operations are not and constitute an act of “aggression” (n.b: the highest crime under international law).

So far, the various negotiations between the parties have not yielded any result. This might change on March 5th when a conference on Syria attended by Turkey, Russia, France and Germany will meet (probably in Istanbul) to try to find a negotiated solution. Considering that Turkish soldiers are killed every day and already that 2 Syrian helicopters have been shot down, this might be too late to avoid an escalation.

I will conclude here by posting a (minimally corrected) machine translation of a Russian translation of a text originally written by a Turkish political commentator and translated into Russian by a Telegram channel: (emphasis added)

Russia’s strategy from the very beginning was to return full control of Syrian territories to Assad. And Moscow was implementing its plans, getting closer to the goal step by step. As long as Damascus will not take Idlib, the operation will continue. You don’t need to be an expert in this field to understand this. This is obvious. Someone says that Erdogan’s trip to Ukraine played a role in the offensive operations of Damascus. In fact, this visit is the result of the Syrian army’s offensive. The Turkish President went to Kiev just after tensions rose between the Turkish armed forces and the Russian side. Erdogan is in Ukraine made statements that have caused irritation in Moscow.

Turkish diplomacy was at an impasse. We discussed for a long time that you can’t put all your eggs in one Russian basket. And they said: we will buy the S-400, build a nuclear power plant, and develop tourism. And Putin was made a hero in our country. And now the defense Secretary is talking about buying American patriot air defense systems. And the President is talking about acquiring Patriot. “We did not succeed with Russia, we will get closer to the United States” – this is not how foreign policy is done. We need consistency in foreign policy. It is not appropriate for a country with a strong military power to change sides between world powers once a week.

What we are still discussing these days: we need to get closer to Europe and the US against Russia. These discussions worry our entrepreneurs who work with Russia. The tourism sector is concerned. Without Russian tourists, our tourism sector cannot fill all the volumes and make a profit. We have not yet been able to resolve these issues, and we are discussing a clash with Russia. Let’s remember what happened after Turkey shot down a Russian plane. Our tourism sector could not recover for two years. What to expect from a military clash. We have to talk about it.

The goal of our state: to live in peace on our land, and keep all the troubles away from yourself, while doing this to attract new troubles – this is not an indicator of a good military strategy or a well-thought-out diplomatic strategy. Everyone should understand this.

The risk for Erdogan is obvious: in case of a serious confrontation with Russia (and Syria AND Iran, don’t forget them!), the consequences for Turkey might be severe, resulting in a sharp rise in anti-Erdogan feelings in Turkey, something he can hardly afford.

And that brings us to the current US/NATO/CENTCOM posture following the assassination of General Soleimani I mentioned in the beginning of this article. The risks of a quick and dangerous escalation involving the US and Iran are still extremely high. The same can be said for the risks of a resumption of anti-US attacks by Iraqi Shia forces. Then there are the conflicts in both Afghanistan and Yemen, which Uncle Shmuel probably would prefer to end, but has no idea how. In these countries a rapid escalation could occur at any time, especially following Iran’s officially declared goal to kick the US out of the Middle-East. And now, there is a risk of major escalation between Turkey, Syria and Russia: such an escalation would have a major potential to suck in the US forces in the region, even if nobody does so deliberately (or if the Iranians do that very deliberately).

Right now Uncle Shmuel is busy with a strategic PSYOP trying to get Russia and Iran into a conflict (see this propaganda piece for example). That will not work, as both the Russians and the Iranians are waaaaaaay too savvy to fall for such primitive things. The US also tried to instigate riots inside Iran, but they quickly petered out (as did the rumors about the US deliberately shooting down the Ukrainian airliner).

The Middle-East is impossible to predict, it is too complex and there are too many possible factors which influence the situation. Still, my guess is that the March 5th conference, assuming it takes place, will force Erdogan to back down and re-pledge his commitment to bringing back security to the Idlib province. That is, as far as I can see, the only way for Erdogan to avoid an embarrassing military defeat with possibly very serious political consequences.

Conversely, should there be an open clash between Turkey and Syria+Russia, then I don’t see NATO intervening to back Turkey. At the most, the US/NATO can send forces to “protect” Turkey and equipment, but in both cases these would not be effective (the problems of the Turkish military are too big to be solved by such mostly symbolic actions). While some more rabid countries (Poland, Netherlands, UK and, of course, the USA) might be tempted to get a major NATO action going against Syria and, through that, against Russia, the mentally saner EU countries have exactly zero desire to end up in a war against Russia, not over the Ukraine, and not over Syria.

Thus while Erdogan is desperately trying to pit the US against Russia, this will not work, especially since this latest pro-US “zag” will only further alienate Iran (and the rest of the region). I predict that after the March 5th conference, Erdogan will be forced to resume his “friendship” with Putin and basically cave in.

If that does not happen, for whatever reason, an escalation will be pretty close to inevitable.

PS: Colonel Cassad (aka Boris Rozhin) has published on his blog an interesting article which looks at a theory which, apparently, is popular in the Middle-East and Russia. This theory says that what is taking place is a gigantic show, a deception, in which both Russia and Turkey appear to be at odds, but in reality are working hand in hand to disarm the Takfiris and exchange territory. Here are, in his opinion, the possibly indications of such a collaboration: (machine translated and minimally corrected)

  1. After some formalities, Turkey resumed joint patrols with the Russian military in Rojava, which is carried out in a routine manner.
  2. Russia has increased the quota for the supply of Turkish tomatoes to Russia despite the fact that Russia threatened to block the supply of Turkish tomatoes.
  3. US did not give Turkey patriot missile, which was described in the Turkish media referring to anonymous sources in the Turkish government. No actual support from the United States and NATO, Turkey has not received.
  4. Despite the fact that the SAA was not going to stop the offensive and continued to surround the Turkish observation points, Turkey has effectively given Assad’s carte blanche for all of February, stating that no major combat operation will be initiated before the beginning of March.
  5. The main chain of the new observation points were deployed by Turkey to the North of highway M-4. The southern direction is not actually strengthened. Attempts to cover the Kafr will Sagna or Kafr Nabl were not undertaken, although this is more important points than Nairab.
  6. The bulk of the Pro-Turkish militants were drawn to Idlib and Carmine, while the southern front was actually exposed for Assad there is a situation of maximum favour for liberation dozen cities and towns.
  7. The battle of Niravam turned into a week-long meat grinder, where the militants engaged in stupid frontal assaults against Syrian positions with heavy losses but capturing Neirab, there is virtually nothing on the operational level, they did not win – losing people and most importantly – time.
  8. The Russian and Turkish military keep all channels of communication and exchange information, including on the movement of Turkish columns. The Russian military help to supply the surrounded Turkish observational points in the rear of Assad.
  9. Moscow and Ankara have repeatedly stressed that not to seek a military conflict with each other, preferring to seek resolution of disputes through diplomatic means.

And Rozhin adds:

Why all this may be part of a backroom deal? Because such a scenario would allow Turkey to look like a defender of Idlib, which is in strong opposition to the plans of Assad and Putin. At least visually. As for Assad and Putin, they can claim to have liberated part of the Idlib province. The battle of Niravam in this logic allow Erdogan to save face before “in the interests of peace and security,” to sign a new deal with Russia with a new line of demarcation, which officially has already been discussed at negotiations in Moscow on 17-18 February. Officially, the Turks rejected it. But it’s official. And if we assume that the agreement already exists and this just fixed sight 5 March, while Assad released another piece of Idlib and the militants “An-Nusra” will be partially disposed in the battles with the SAA in Idlib and in the southern frontal attack on the front under Niranam. In favor of this version may indicate the previous experience of transactions between Russia and Turkey, when Ankara loudly growled at Assad, but de facto did not prevent the Assad regime to clean up the enclaves and win the battle for Aleppo. Against this version can play what the Turks themselves are suffering losses in manpower, and further concessions to Russia may undermine Erdogan’s positions in Idlib, so he tries to bargain.

I personally doubt this version, if only because this is a very tricky and dangerous way to get things done, and because of the many threats and even ultimatums Erdogan is constantly spewing. A more likely explanation for all of the above is that 1) the Takfiris are desperate and are running out of steam and 2) the Turks are afraid of a serious confrontation with Russia. Rozin concludes:

I think that by March 5 the question of whether there is was a secret deal or not will finally be clarified, since Erdogan’s threats are all focusing on early March, at which point he will have to either attack or chose to play the role of peacemaker, which “diplomatically” stopped the advance of Assad.

Here I can only agree with him.

 
• Category: Foreign Policy • Tags: American Military, Iran, Russia, Syria, Turkey 
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  1. Anon[373] • Disclaimer says:

    Erdogan is unreliable ,thief, and an opportunist . Putin needs to teach him a good lesson.

  2. Escalation is the ‘Murkan way,
    Backed by brute stupidity and greed.
    Count on moronic Turkish display,
    All sides fighting, to Iran they lead.

  3. Alfred says:
    @Anon

    Putin needs to teach him a good lesson

    This is not a personal confrontation. It is diplomacy and war.

    Putin does not want Erdogan replaced. He knows all about the character weaknesses of Erdogan so why should he want him replaced by an American clown? It does not make sense.

    Russia wants Turkey to get out of Syria. The Russians want the Kurds to behave themselves and to stop attacking Turkey from Syria. The real fly in the ointment are the USA and Israel that want to maintain the division of Syria / Iraq / Yemen / Libya / Korea / Ukraine (from Russia) / Yugoslavia and so on. They are also constantly trying to divide Iran – fat chance with that one. 🙂

    The only places they want to prevent from splitting up are obvious: the UK, Spain, Ukraine, Germany, Indonesia and others

    • Agree: Aedib
    • Replies: @anon
    , @Nonny Mouse
  4. Alfred says:

    Here is an example of how Israel is trying to help Turkey – and acting against Russia’s interests.

    As clashes between the Syrian Arab Army and Turkish forces continue to escalate, with Damascus seeking to reclaim Idlib province from Turkish backed Al Qaeda linked militants which Ankara has pledged to prevent this, the Israeli Defence Force has simultaneously escalated attacks on Syrian targets from its southern border. This took the form of intensified Israeli airstrikes primarily targeting the capital Damascus

    Israel and Turkey Coordinating Attacks? Syrian Army Engaged on Two Fronts as Ankara and Tel Aviv Organise Strikes From North and South

    It should be clear that all the speeches by Erdogan against Israel are really an attempt to hide the reality that they are allies in Syria. Much better to watch what Erodgan is doing and to ignore anything he says.

    • Agree: Mustapha Mond
    • Replies: @Beefcake the Mighty
    , @Iris
  5. Anonymous[120] • Disclaimer says:

    I’m sick of hearing your whining about “Anglos”. England is the most right wing and “based” country in Europe, that’s why the global elites HATE the English more than anyone and want to replace us with anyone, even Poles and other Eastern Euros, who they see as more left wing and progressive than the native English.

    The left regard the native English working class and middle class as the most racist and bigoted people in the world. There is no country in Europe more right wing and based at heart than England, so clearly you don’t have a clue what you’re taking about Saker. Stop insulting England, a country you don’t know shit about. England has no viable socialist/Left movement, I can guarantee that the native English are more right wing and based than what ever shithole you’re from.

  6. Alfred says:
    @Anonymous

    I can find no mention of “England”, “Anglos”, “U.K.” or “Britain” in the article.

    Surely you don’t think that the AngloZionists are “native English working class and middle class people”?

    Are you sure you have come to the right place?

  7. Talha says:

    This just kicked into overdrive, it’s a good thing the Russians and Turks are talking to each other because Turkey looks like it is exacting a few pounds of flesh for its 30+ soldiers that were killed:

    As long as it’s Syrian and Turkish soldiers getting whacked back and forth, I think it will likely remain at that level of confrontation. I don’t think Turkey nor Russia wants to seriously start killing each other’s guys.

    Peace.

  8. Republic says:
    @Anon

    Turkey just blocked all social media yesterday, something big is going to happen by Sunday,March 1st.

    • Replies: @JamesinNM
  9. Tom Verso says:

    This article date 2/28/20 was clearly written last week as indicated by the last week’s map before the Turkish/Terrorist offensive, that has retaken the city of Saraqib and cut the M5 Highway.

    The Turkish offensive is no longer a threat, it is currently on going full blown. See various articles on at Southern Front (https://southfront.org)

  10. There is a magician in the Caucusus who magically change Turkish tomatoes into Armenian and Azerbaijani ones. When they reach the shops they are the best quality and lowest priced of all. Increasing the quota deprives this magician of raw material.

    So, Britain is free from the shackles of the EU! Will it again ally with Russia to defeat the Napoleonic tendencies of Brussels or will it ally with Turkey to hold back the Russia march on Constantinople and thus India? Boris Johnson is of Turkish descent. Cappadocian Christian slave girl according to him and he always tells the truth. And again, the UK was the greatest (only) advocate for awarding Turkey a greater degree of EU membership than it already has (everything it wants in practice). So perhaps Britain was the Napoleon of the EU reaching out to Poland.

  11. El Dato says:
    @Anonymous

    But where exactly are they based?

  12. El Dato says:
    @Anon

    He’s just like Mussolini.

    That can be managed.

  13. Rahan says:

    The “real Americans” are just as “based” as the English pleb, but this doesn’t stop the national institutions from being hijacked by GloboHomo.

    Hence “AngloZionist” is a valid descriptor. If at any point the institutions are taken back by the people, and their behavior becomes sane again, “AngloZionist” will no longer be a valid descriptor.

  14. SteveK9 says:

    It’s been reported that Putin has other plans for March 5. Why would he want to talk to the idiots from France and Germany? They have nothing useful to say or do. That is just an attempt by Erdogan to ‘gang up’ on Putin.

    After the 33 Turks were killed yesterday (marching along with HTS), Erdogan has called a meeting of NATO. I don’t know if the US would be idiotic enough to send military support to Turkey to invade Syria. Unfortunately all the propaganda has left the public in the US completely in the dark about what is actually happening in Syria.

    • Replies: @Popeye
  15. Saker is unfortunately engaged in wishful thinking.

    Erdogan would not be repeatedly drawing a “early March” line in the sand if he weren’t prepared to do something. I think the Russians have been betting that Erdogan was bluffing, but I’m doubtful.

    Putin is in a tricky position. He has wanted to appease everyone–the US, Turkey and Israel– while consolidating a Russian position in Syria and has managed the game in Syria pretty well on the whole. And yet, Russia has been strategically vulnerable from the very beginning of its intervention.

    Putin didn’t respond to the Turkish shoot-down of the SU-24, nor to the US cruise missile strikes on the bogus pretext of supposed Syrian chemical strikes, nor to the Israel-induced shoot-down of the IL-20.

    And significantly, he has allowed Israel to strike Iranian targets in Syria (at the invitation of Assad) as well. Looked at in the cold light of day, Russia has done little to make itself feared in Syria, but has mostly taken advantage of the reluctance of all other parties to get deeply involved. But now Turkey does seem willing to get deeply involved. And while the US is staying out of it for now, one simply can’t predict what it will do next.

    Another underlying issue is the fundamental weakness of the SAA. It can take on jihadists with Russian air support but not, I think, any meaningful Turkish intervention.

    Then there is the issue of the Turkish Straits. At some point in the escalation, Turkey could close the straits. How will Russia resupply itself then? Sure, some stuff can go by plane over the Caspian and Iran/Iraq, but not enough, I would think, to sustain what the Russians have in Syria now much less any increased effort to combat Turkey.

    Make no mistake, I support the clearance of the jihadists from Idlib, but Russia is in a difficult position. It’s really a question of whose bluff gets called–Erdogan’s or Putin’s.

    • Agree: Beefcake the Mighty
    • Replies: @Talha
    , @Swedish Family
  16. Perhaps no one wants an escalation – with apocalyptic consequences: avoiding it is the challenge.
    https://www.ghostsofhistory.wordpress.com/

  17. Talha says:
    @Oscar Peterson

    But now Turkey does seem willing to get deeply involved.

    Yes, but it seems pretty clear the Turks have a specific border region they are interested in securing and stabilizing and not marching on Damascus or anything stupid like that. If that is the extent of Turkish advance, I really don’t think Putin cares all that much. And as long as Turkey doesn’t move a ton of Turks into the area (but rather keeps it as an area to settle internally displaced Syrians who are crossing into Turkey – which is a destabilizing factor for its already-slagging economy).

    Then there is the issue of the Turkish Straits. At some point in the escalation, Turkey could close the straits.

    Can they? I thought that the Straits are supposed to be kept open and neutral in any conflict (kind of like the Suez Canal).

    Peace.

  18. If Turkey and Russia start mixing it up, we should step away from the fan before the merde (excuse my French) hits it. The worse it gets for both sides, the better for the rest of the world.

    • Replies: @NoseytheDuke
  19. This whole charade is caused by Israel, using the US and the West. The West, including the US are not sovereign countries any more, they have limited freedom. Feel free to refute if you don’t agree with me. But before you do, take a look at this video and listen closely to what former British ambassador and journalist Alastair Crooke has to say to Peter Lavelle about Zionism and world domination.

    I always thought that folks like Adam Green, E Michael Jones, Pastor Chuck Baldwin were a bit extreme; not anymore.

    As a person who has been indifferent to organized religion, this video was a wake-up call to me.

    • Agree: S
    • Thanks: Alfred
    • Replies: @Oscar Peterson
    , @Miro23
  20. @Talha

    “Yes, but it seems pretty clear the Turks have a specific border region they are interested in securing and stabilizing and not marching on Damascus or anything stupid like that. If that is the extent of Turkish advance, I really don’t think Putin cares all that much.”

    Well, they’re going toe-to-toe over something, aren’t they? If Putin didn’t care, we wouldn’t be talking about this right now.

    The Russians and the Syrians have always seen the agreement on Idlib as a temporary expedient with the (reasonable) expectation that it would come back under Syrian sovereign control at some point. It’s not at all clear that Erdogan sees it as temporary. And the agreement essentially required the disarming of the jihadists inside the area, which Turkey has been unwilling or unable to accomplish.

    In any case, it’s not just Putin making unilateral decisions on behalf of Russia. He has his own domestic constituencies that he has to answer to in one way or another.

    “I thought that the Straits are supposed to be kept open and neutral in any conflict…”

    Article 20 of the Montreux Convention (governing transit of the Turkish straits):

    In time of war, Turkey being belligerent, the provisions of Articles 10 to 18 shall not be applicable; the passage of warships shall be left entirely to the discretion of the Turkish Government.

    The only question is how one defines war in the absence of a declaration of war, which pretty much never happens anymore.

  21. @Rev. Spooner

    Agree. Israel and its influence on the US is the critical factor in the ongoing destruction of the Middle East northern tier. Russian-Turkish hostility is simply part of all the misery that unfortunately redounds to Israel’s benefit.

    Erdogan is to be congratulated on the AKP’s break from traditional Turkish deference to Israel’s strangling of the Palestinians. But his wild-eyed ambitions in the Arab world bring him into conflict with Syria, Iran and Russia which is a boon for conniving international Jewry.

    Of course, US pro-Kurd policy which has done so much to alienate Turkey is merely Israeli strategy that has no conceivable benefit for the US.

    You’re quite right. Israel and its US golem are quite literally wrecking the region.

    • Agree: Marshall Lentini
  22. pauld556 says:
    @Oscar Peterson

    Oscar Peterson,

    I agree with everything you`ve said I would also add that the US can cut off supplies from Iraqi airspace too if things get really hot,

    BUT

    I’m sure Putin knows all this too, there`s two explanations:

    1. Putin is like a deer caught in the car headlamps. Do you believe he`s a fool with foolish advisors?

    2. There’s stuff we don’t know like posturing before a deal, if he`s smart he`ll just give Turkey its small exclusion zone, inside M5 & M4 on the vague promise it sorts out the “terrorist problem” in the area. What’s Syria going to do with all this Sunni / Turkmen indoctrinated population anyway (didn’t they cause the trouble in the first place).

    He`s actually showing Turkey up to the world as colluding with the head choppers maybe that’s part of his game too. Expose the collusion by making them sweat until it’s obvious, then just make a deal.

  23. @Oscar Peterson

    Putin didn’t respond to the Turkish shoot-down of the SU-24, nor to the US cruise missile strikes on the bogus pretext of supposed Syrian chemical strikes, nor to the Israel-induced shoot-down of the IL-20.

    At the time, I remember this shelling (by Russian TOS-1s) being seen as one of the responses. Pretty nasty stuff, it has to be said. Can’t have been many survivors.

    • Replies: @Oscar Peterson
    , @Alfred
  24. @Talha

    Can they? I thought that the Straits are supposed to be kept open and neutral in any conflict (kind of like the Suez Canal).

    You are right. Closing the Bosporus would be akin to Egypt closing the Suez, a very serious escalation, bordering on a casus belli.

  25. @Oscar Peterson

    In time of war, Turkey being belligerent, the provisions of Articles 10 to 18 shall not be applicable; the passage of warships shall be left entirely to the discretion of the Turkish Government.

    The only question is how one defines war in the absence of a declaration of war, which pretty much never happens anymore.

    Here, it seems to me, the key question is what makes a “warship.” Is a Russian merchant ship one? I say “no,” or “maybe.” Either way, it’s not a slam dunk.

    • Replies: @Oscar Peterson
  26. @pauld556

    Good points.

    I think the third option is that Putin has taken a series of risks, and no matter how prudent the risks are, they can always end in some form of policy failure. (Or perhaps I should call this a substitute for your option 1, which I think neither of us believes is remotely true.)

    That said, I certainly hope you are right about option 2. Some concession to Turkey may be in order, but I’m not sure that they can come to an agreement. It’s not clear that Turkey accepts giving up the M4 and M5, and the SAA is showing significant weakness (and equipment losses) to the jihadi/Turkish counterattack that has cut the M5 again.

    The counterattack may be for bargaining purposes, but the Turkish desire to bring France and Germany into the business on its side doesn’t bode well. And the fact that the Syrians have quite a way to go to get control of the M4–not to speak of actually consolidating control of the M5–with Erdogan’s deadline approaching means that Syria/Russia are not, at this point, in the kind of position one would want to be able to negotiate the deal you outline in option 2.

    • Replies: @FB
  27. anon[117] • Disclaimer says:
    @Alfred

    Erdogan is a sick man . This bastard wants to be the leader of teh Islamic world . But he is steeped deep into corruption and is beholden to Israel.

    Russia needs to eliminate this problem once and for all .

    • Replies: @Alfred
  28. @Swedish Family

    Yes, but I meant response against the Turks themselves–not just the jihadis. Of course, there was a kind of response against Turkey, but it consisted of economic sanctions and such–pretty much symbolic.

    • Replies: @Swedish Family
  29. @Swedish Family

    Here, it seems to me, the key question is what makes a “warship.”

    The Convention defines “auxiliary” ships as a category of warships–support and logistics vessels–and distinct from commercial shipping. A merchant ship is only a merchant ship if it’s engaged in mercantile business–not if it’s bringing in supplies to a power that is either de jure or de facto at war with Turkey.

    In any case, Article 5 of the Convention says this:

    In time of war, Turkey being belligerent, merchant vessels not belonging to a country at war with Turkey shall enjoy freedom of transit and navigation in the Straits on condition that they do not in any way assist the enemy.

    So if there were a state of hostilities between Russia and Turkey, Russian merchant vessels would not enjoy freedom of transit anyway.

    • Replies: @Swedish Family
  30. joe2.5 says:
    @Anonymous

    “Stop insulting England, a country you don’t know shit about. England has no viable socialist/Left movement, I can guarantee that the native English are more right wing and based than what ever shithole you’re from.”

    Looks like you already took care of insulting England, no need for more. The above, if true, is already enough to indict the “native English” beyond any mercy — in addition to the American towrags they always elect as “government”.

    • LOL: utu
    • Replies: @Gleimhart Mantooso
  31. Talha says:
    @Oscar Peterson

    It’s not at all clear that Erdogan sees it as temporary.

    Not sure either, but I do know that there are hundreds of refugees crossing into Turkey. It is in Turkey’s immediate interests (as well as Europe’s) that the fighting come to an immediate halt in order to stop the flow of these people to the North and West. Neither Syria nor Iran nor Russia seem to care about the displacement since they don’t have to deal with the people (they certainly aren’t going to Russia or Iran). Syrian sovereignty as well as disarmament (and potential amnesty) of the various militant groups is something that can certainly wait to be negotiated – at least that seems to be the Turkish perspective.

    Article 20 of the Montreux Convention (governing transit of the Turkish straits)

    Thank you for that reference, much appreciated. I stand corrected. I do know that the Suez needs to stay open for all warships, even those that are from a country at war with Egypt. So it is certainly not the same set up.

    Peace

  32. Anonymous[239] • Disclaimer says:

    Putin slaughters Turkish troops, giving Erdogan ample justification to open the flood gates into Europe. In fact, he would look weak now if he didn’t. This influx will likely be huge and it’s on Vlad.

  33. @pauld556

    Here, on the other hand, are a couple pretty positive (i.e., favorable to Syria and Russia) assessments from Moon of Alabama and Asia Times:

    https://www.moonofalabama.org/2020/02/syria-deadly-bombstrike-warns-turkey-to-end-its-escapades.html#more

    https://asiatimes.com/2020/02/turkeys-invasion-of-syria-turns-sour/

    The Moon of Alabama piece focuses on Russian-backed Syrian successes in southern Idlib rather than the reverses on the M5 near Aleppo.

  34. FB says: • Website

    There is also the risk of an incident in the air since these four nations also conduct air operations over Syria. And, just like in the case of the ground operations, Syrian and Russian air operations are legal under international law, Turkish, US or Israeli operations are not and constitute an act of “aggression”…

    There it is…the obligatory Saker piece of fiction that always seems to slip into his writings…

    For the record here…Turkey is NOT flying any kind of aircraft over Syria other than combat drones…more on that in a minute…Turkish aircraft are absolutely NOT flying into Syrian territory because they would be toast IMMEDIATELY…

    After the recent massacre of Turkish troops by Russian and Syrian aircraft strikes [Turkey has acknowledged 33 but the number could be much higher]…Turkey requested but was DENIED permission to fly evac helos into Idlib…the dead and injured had to be removed by road vehicles…

    Now the Turks have been flying combat drones that are capable of launching air to ground missiles, and these have been bothersome for the SAA…one has been downed so far by SAA fire and more will surely follow…drones are a no-cost aerial weapon…and you have to take them out one by one…

    As for Israel flying over Syria, that is also absolutely bullshit…they dare not enter in SYRIAN AIRSPACE with manned aircraft ever sine that F16 was downed [over Israel a couple of years ago]…all attacks on Syria have been standoff missiles launched from outside Syrian airspace [usually Lebaonon]…

    The US is flying in Syria only on ‘their’ side of the Euprates…ie the east and northest section where they are still deployed…but Russian aircraft [mostly helos] are also operating in the border areas that are now back under Syrian control…

    So there is absolutely ZERO truth to this silly statement…Russia controls the skies over Syria and the US is NOT about to challenge that…

    Another loose end…

    …the shooting down of the Russian Su-24 by Turkish aircraft (backed by USAF fighters)…

    Where did this come from…?

    The Turkish F16 were operating in TURKISH AIRSPACE at the time they fired air to air missiles on the Su24 ground attack jet, which was unescorted by Russian fighters…

    This is not an operation that requires ‘backing up’…it was clearly a pre-planned ambush by the Turkish fighters as soon as the Sukhoi got near the Turkish frontier [but almost certainly didn’t cross into Turkish territory…]

    Were there some USAF aircraft in the air at the time, flying out of Incirlik or another US air base in Turkey…possibly…but they would have had no role in the actual missile shot…that’s NOT how air to air combat works…you don’t get any ‘help’ from another fighter…the missile is guided to the enemy aircraft SOLELY by the airman firing that missile…

    This kind of nonsense really detracts from an otherwise interesting article…

    • Agree: Alfred
  35. @Hannah Katz

    Why? What has Russia done to deserve your hatred and that of the rest of the world?

    • Agree: Alfred
    • Replies: @ValMond
    , @RadicalCenter
  36. ValMond says:
    @NoseytheDuke

    (((She))) will never forget how Russians kicked poor grandpa Moishe out of the shtetl after swindling one too many mujiks.

  37. @ValMond

    It’s sad that you’re probably right. Imagine, the entire American establishment’s policy toward Russia boils down to petty Jewish animus. Plus nukes!

  38. @joe2.5

    I bet you’d never pop off at the mouth like that to someone in person. Eh, tough guy?

  39. marylinm says:

    If Souleimani could have been taken out with a single Divine Arrow of David, or whatever they call it, then why not Erdogan? And even if he were truly not, then does he have the guts to dare the boys? I do not think so.

    The lesson, boys and girls, is that if you hold the bull by the balls you can steer that donk any direction you please, on a dime.

  40. Miro23 says:
    @Rev. Spooner

    An interesting interview with Alastair Crooke talking about the enforcement of the Empire/NWO. It’s hegemonic, with the requirement to follow US zio-globalist policy with no middle ground. Dissent = Regime Change, war and sanctions.

    Crooke draws parallels with Imperial Rome, although the Roman Empire offered a better deal to its subject peoples. In return for taxation, places like Gaul, and Iberia were incorporated into an Imperial economic network with excellent new infrastructure, legal system, administration, the Pax Romana and the possibility of Roman citizenship for prominent locals.

    The US Empire/NWO offers little other than an invitation to local elites to join in the looting of subject peoples.

    • Agree: Robjil
  41. @FB

    That, and the “Patriot sucks, S-400 awesome” routine.

  42. Alfred says:
    @Oscar Peterson

    the passage of warships shall be left entirely to the discretion of the Turkish Government

    If the Turks are so foolish as to close the Straits, the Russians would ensure that no one else could use them as well – and the Suez Canal.

    All these places are within range of Russian rockets and cruise missiles. Europe would have to decide whether to go to war with Russia or to force Turkey to relent. There is little that the USA can do about it. Their military logistics would be in big trouble. Don’t forget that it took some 6 months and the movement of a huge amount of materiel to Kuwait before they could invade Iraq.

    While they are at it, the Iranians would see an opportunity to destroy the American bases in the region – without the Americans being able to do much about it with conventional weapons. The Americans in Afghanistan, Qatar, Kuwait, Iraq, Saudi Arabia and Syria would be easy prey. Israel would be bombarded properly from Lebanon.

    What I am getting at is that the Americans would be incredibly stupid to allow the Turks to do any such thing. But stupid things have happened in the past.

    The days when the USA and Israel could attack with impunity are over. The initiative would move to the other side. A totally new ballgame.

    • Replies: @Oscar Peterson
  43. Alfred says:
    @Swedish Family

    Putin didn’t respond to the Turkish shoot-down of the SU-24

    He cut off tourism and the import of Turkish agricultural products. A huge hit to the Turkish economy – especially to the segment that vote Erdogan into power.

    Rotting Turkish tomatoes show Putin holds the cards on Syria

  44. Antares says:

    It is truly nice to believe that Erdogan is playing a game and will in the end return all Syrian territory to Syria. But with every Turkish casualty this is becoming more and more unlikely. This cannot be sold to the Turkish public. If he would however manage to take away only a narrow swath of Syrian territory and add it to Turkey, he would be remembered for ever as the good Turk.

  45. Alfred says:
    @anon

    Russia needs to eliminate this problem once and for all

    Please forgive me, but you are writing as though this is a schoolyard tiff. It most certainly is not. Erdgan is certainly acting as though he were Turkey. But he is not. Putin is acting on behalf of Russia. A totally different matter.

    Putin does not really care what Erdogan does to the Turkish people. That is not his concern. With Syria, it is a different matter. He wants to make it clear to everyone that Syria is not up for grabs. The Russians know very well where that leads to. Russia is in a powerful position in many ways and Erdogan will only receive some crumbs so that he can pretend that he has not lost in Syria.

    • Agree: Bill Jones
  46. FB says: • Website
    @Oscar Peterson

    …Putin has taken a series of risks, and no matter how prudent the risks are, they can always end in some form of policy failure.

    What risks…?

    What you fail to take into account is the concept of escalation dominance…just because Putin has not escalated in the face of previous incidents, do we know now that he won’t at this time…?

    I think a good barometer is what the US professional military men are saying…they are stating that Idlib is a ‘magnet for terrorists’…

    In other words they don’t want any part of this confrontation…Erdogan is by himself…

    • Replies: @Oscar Peterson
  47. Alfred says:
    @Anonymous

    This influx will likely be huge and it’s on Vlad.

    LOL

    And the role of Israel, UK, France, Turkey, Saudi Arabia, Germany, Qatar, USA and all their lackeys is forgotten. Pull the other leg!

    No one takes these lies of yours seriously any more. The population replacement of Europe was planned a long time ago by the Zionists.

    If the Greeks let them in, it is because their elites have been bribed. If Merkel wants them, she can have them. What goes around comes around!

    • Agree: Realist
  48. Smith says:

    Saker is delusional and still thinks this is some kind of 4D chess. He’s truly a boomer not worth paying attention to.

    Please fucking admit that Putin made a big mistake in entertaining the turks in Syria.

    And do you understand ISLAMOPHOBIA now? Islamophobia is when turks call for muslims worldwide to rise up and beat their host countries, like they just did it in a national turkish TV.

    • Replies: @anonymous
  49. @Alfred

    Have the Kurds been attacking Turkey from Syria?

    • Replies: @Alfred
  50. Translation of a translation (Turkish –> Russian –> English):

    Russia’s strategy from the very beginning was to return full control of Syrian territories to Assad.

    Of course that would have to include the entire occupied Golan Heights territory, including the peak of Mt. Hermon, the eastern shore of Lake Galilee and a small area to the north of it, located west of the Jordan River.

    • Agree: Alfred
  51. Herald says:
    @Anonymous

    Your delusional tirade will almost certainly get you entered into the duckhead of the year competition and even better, you might well have a very good chance of winning. Good luck with that and do let us know how you get on.

  52. Alfred says:

    Here is how the US military is thinking.

    Then came the piece de resistance of the hearing. “What are your views, Sir,” Senator Fischer asked, “of adopting a so-called no-first-use policy. Do you believe that that would strengthen deterrence?”

    General Wolters’ response was straight to the point. “Senator, I’m a fan of flexible first use policy.”

    The threat of a nuclear war between the US and Russia is now at its greatest since 1983

    The imbecility of that response is astounding. This guy seems to think that the USA is immune to counter attack. The Russians have made it clear that they will attack the places where the decisions are made. There will be no gradual escalation with Europe being wiped out first.

    Vladimir Putin says new missiles could target ‘decision-making centres’ if US sends weapons to Europe

    • Agree: Aedib
  53. Robjil says:

    Purim is on March 9/10 this year.

    This is the time for war for Israel’s Eretz Yisrael.

    This mess coming at this time points to it being a Zion based mess.

    Erdogan is acting like Israel’s pet dog.

    He supports US/Israel’s terrorists.

    He thinks that Iblid is his “Golan Heights”.

    He is acting like his mentor Netanyahu.

  54. Alfred says:
    @Nonny Mouse

    Have the Kurds been attacking Turkey from Syria?

    For many years. It only stopped relatively recently. Essentially, the Americans bought off their leadership. Later, the Americans, under Turkish pressure, abandoned the Kurds. The Syrian Kurds refused the offer of Damascus. The Russians allowed the Turks to clear the Kurds out of the border area. The Kurds turned to Damascus once more.

    It is a long story. This BBC version is much sanitized. Use gloves and handle with care. 🙂

    Turkey v Syria’s Kurds: The short, medium and long story

    Don’t forget that the objective of Israel, France, UK and the USA has always been to have a Kurdish state between Turkey, Syria, Iraq and Iran. A sort of cancer that will fester that they can feed anytime they fell like it. Obviously, Turkey, Iran, Syria, Iraq and Russia have a common interest to prevent that.

  55. Realist says:
    @FB

    The US is flying in Syria only on ‘their’ side of the Euprates…ie the east and northest section where they are still deployed…but Russian aircraft [mostly helos] are also operating in the border areas that are now back under Syrian control…

    The US has no side of the Euphrates they are in Syria illegally. All military personnel and materiel from countries not invited into Syria should be destroyed.

    Any country that uses standoff weapons to attack Syria should themselves be attacked.

  56. @FB

    What risks…?

    Well, the risk of intervening in Syria on a shoe-string, depending on US policy chaos to prevent any coherent US response (given how insanely anti-Russian the entire US political system is) and with a tenuous supply line. That’s tremendously risky to my mind. It’s obviously carefully calculated but still a major risk nonetheless.

    Yes, Russia can escalate, and the war is not popular with a large segment of Turkish opinion. His only tool is firepower, which may be enough. But the SAA is a very degraded outfit, even backed by militias, and the lack of Russian ground forces doesn’t give Russia any other options.

    And I still have to think that a closure of the straits might be in Erdogan’s back pocket. It’s true that NATO and the US don’t seem inclined to do much in Syria, but if Erdogan were to block Russian shipping under the terms of the Montreux Convention and Russia tried to force the straits, I don’t think NATO would stand by.

    Hopefully the clearance of Idlib will work out, but it’s not guaranteed. (And of course, even if Russia “wins,” it’s still pyrrhic in that Putin’s major initiative to establish a strategic entente with Turkey will be in ruins.)

    • Replies: @FB
    , @Johnny Rico
  57. Republic says:

    SouthFront has some good videos

    utube might restrict this for viewing

  58. Uncle Shmuel is keeping its powder dry as far as Iran is concerned and will “deal” with the ayatollahs after the reelection of the Orange Man.

    Almost twenty years ago at a dinner party given by my onetime poker buddy, a nice rich Turk, I had told mostly Turkish guests that their country had no chance of ever being a part of White Christian Europe because “US” won’t permit it and now I am saying that not only that remains the policy but the Turks will lose a part of their territory, along with Syria, Iraq and Iran, to the future Kurdistan, where oil will be under American control, Russia notwithstanding.

    • Replies: @Turk 152
  59. “Erdogan is to be congratulated on the AKP’s break from traditional Turkish deference to Israel’s strangling of the Palestinians.”

    Merde-gun, the Turkish Turd Cannon, spews his crap everywhere. On Palestinian suffering, he talks big, but then, when his own people are murdered on the Turkish aid-to-Gaza vessel, the Mavi-Marmara, he doesn’t lift a finger to help them. How much Turkish/International aid has actually gotten to Gaza from any of these aid flotillas, and how much has been stolen and kept by Israel (thank you very much!), and likely given to the thieving, rapacious jewish ‘settler’ communities to build on Palestinian lands? Merde-gun talks big, but doesn’t actually do shit, except spew it widely and loudly. (Oh, and sell stolen Syrian oil to Israel. Lots of it.)

    But Merde-gun sure had and has the resources to back up the ISIS and Al Qaeda terrorists in Syria’s Idlib and elsewhere, doesn’t he? And all that helps Israel, never his ‘brother’ arabs in Syria.

    He’s just another in a long parade of Arabic leader zionist controlled butt-plugs that really serve Israel and not the Arabic peoples they allegedly represent, just like our US leadership does to us…..

  60. MLK says:
    @Anon

    Right now, the Idiot-in-Chief seems to think that threatening Iraq with “very big sanctions” is the way to restore good relationships. In reality, all this will do is to further inflame anti-US feelings in Iraq and the rest of the region.

    Oh boy, at least you’ve weaned yourself down to only one embarrassing bleat about Trump! Do you think it went unnoticed that you did so, cravenly, in the context of Iraq, not Syria, the subject matter of your article?

    Trump/USG foiled Iran and the Democrats attempt to replay the Iranian Hostage Crisis that sank Carter’s reelection. While Iran remains desperate, any further such gambits would pretty much guarantee ruining any chances of a US-Iranian rapprochement for a generation.

    The dirty little secret is that both Iraq and Iran need the US to remain in Iraq. Both to prevent another sectarian war and for American largesse. Iran not only has no money to give, it’s looting as much as it can from Iraq to try to maintain social stability at home. Trump’s threat of sanctions — he ain’t bluffing, believe me! — would put Iraqi oil exports into the same basket as Iran’s.

    What kind of an idiot would think that Iraq — even, or especially, it’s Iran aligned Shia — would choose this path? In return for what, all manner of Iranian military/intelligence filth as resident overlords?

    Iran’s execution vis-à-vis the US since Trump took the oath has been self-defeating so I cannot put the odds at zero, but this should concentrate the minds of all concerned:

    https://asiatimes.com/2020/02/us-philippine-ties-headed-from-bad-to-worse/

    As for Syria, everyone, including you, have memory-holed Trump brilliantly removing/relocating American “tripwire” personnel. That being the playful term for Americans who were supposed to die so that Democrats might score partisan points against Trump.

    All the arm-waving and piss poor analysis aside, we can divide the relevant parties in Syria into three categories since Trump took the oath. Though with some rough sledding as The Resistance, foreign and domestic, tried to remove him. The first, of course, is Assad/Syria. It ain’t rocket science, the objectives being reunification and international funds to rebuild. The latter requiring the exit of Iran/Hezbollah military/intelligence.

    Putin/Russia share Assad/Syria’s objectives. Neither will sacrifice them so that the Iranians feel better about themselves. Sure, Iran and Hezbollah came to Syria’s aid when it must needed it. But now their presence as an offensive capacity against Israel is gumming up the works. It’s been evident for some time that is Israel’s beef, which Putin/Russia have acknowledged and accommodated.

    Turkey/Erdogan are in a similar position to Iran (and Israel) in Syria in that the two big dogs, Russia and the US, are now both telling them what time it is. Turkey has legitimate interests that must be taken into account (e.g. the Kurds; What becomes of the jihadi filth). Difficult nuts to crack, they are. Thus, I think, the drawn out, messy process we’re seeing.

    • Agree: anon8383892
    • Replies: @showmethereal
    , @Alfred
  61. anonymous[307] • Disclaimer says:

    Putin is a Jewish mafia servant who is very close to Jewish Tribe. The axis of of evil Trump -Putin-Netanyahu has been exposed all over the world. Israel and Russia – Putin – are the only two countries where are benefiting from Trump coming to power with the help of zionists, including Putin.

    Don’t pay attention to Putin apologists. Don’t trust Putin who is working closely with the racist zionists like Trump, Netanyahu for the interest of Israel and its own.

    • Replies: @Alfred
  62. FB says: • Website
    @Oscar Peterson

    It’s really much simpler…the US wasn’t going to ‘respond’ militarily to Russia in Syria, just like they haven’t responded to the Iranian missile strikes…some things just don’t make sense…

    Nato is the US, and the US isn’t going to start WW3…so the straits don’t come into play, much as everyone thinks they do…

    As for Russia ‘losing’ Turkey…well, that was always a marriage of convenience…

    Also the Syrian forces are quite good now, and they are being directed by Russian pros…the entire Idlib operation to date has been very efficiently done…

    Erdogan is making a lot of hostile noises about going to war against Russia…that is just dumb…but this time Putin is not going to give an inch…he doesn’t have to…

    Ultimately it boils down to this…the US foreign policy establishment would surely love to see Russia kicked out of Syria, and so they are encouraging Erdogan…but he will have to go it alone, and he doesn’t have much of a chance to succeed…

    We should remember that the biggest advantage Russia has is that they know their adversary very well…basic Sun Tzu…the neocon driven foreign policy is idiotic and unreal, and will be treated as such when push comes to shove…

  63. Excuse me, Oscar, but in my previous post, substitute “Muslim” and “muslims” for “Arabic” and “arabs” in the last two paragraphs. I was too pissed off at what that Turkish Turd Cannon is doing, and simply slid into the admittedly silly default mode of ‘they’re all arabs’, when he is very obviously Turkish and not Arabic. They are muslims, and supposed to be brotherly (i.e., Muslim Brotherhood?) and that was to be the point. My apologies for that slip up. I was, and am, extremely pissed off at Syria’s on-going destruction by all these pseudo-muslim assholes, and it shows……

    Btw, I do like your other posts, I just can’t get behind being pro Merde-gun on the Palestinian issue. I wish it were otherwise, of course.

  64. sally says:
    @Anon

    This situation is interesting.. as the different leaders of the different nation states have each and all blocked the media. so that the propaganda for war can be deployed without the interference of the Truth.

    Allow me to once again point out that the problem in our world is the nation state system, itself.

    Persons in charge (some call them leaders, I prefer Godfathers) are calling in their soldiers as the war for turf, oil and the riches to be had in privatization of each others public goodies are being traded back and forth as if the qualify of life of the governed citizens were but expendable cannon fodder.

    Its the nation state system that needs to be eliminated in order to bring to our world <=peace. Not just one nation state, but all of them. I propose that all of the minerals in the world be taken into a public trust, and each nation allocated their use, as a function of the immediacy of need and in proportion to the population. The ownership and control of the minerals of the world belong not to private parties, no matter the overlying nation state, but instead to all of humanity. The nation states are mere platforms designed to make laws that allow a few to manipulate the publically owned property from the masses and to designate it to be private property. Once designated as private property by rule of law, the nation state leaders then dole the designated by law private property, to the feudal lords who are in privy with the nation state.

    The war in Syria has made crystal clear the guns or better problem is a function of the structure that contains 8 billion humans in one of 206 containers called nation states. This division of mankind has made it possible for the mind of the criminal to conjure up ways to own the world and to suppress human expression and quality of life.

    • Agree: Syd Walker
  65. Turk 152 says:
    @Really No Shit

    I think this it is a religious thing coming from the Vatican. They want a Christian Europe.

    The way the world is shifting to the east while the west is totally ruled by Zio Wall Street, i thought that remaining free of the EU was actually very fortunate.

    A war with Russia isolates Turkey and isnt in Turkeys interests, I believe despite appearances, ZioUs is still pulling the strings in Turkey. I always looked at Erdogan as a Muslim Brotherhood occupier and, as such, not really Turkish.

    • Agree: Alfred
  66. Turkey and the ZUS and Israel and ZBritain and ZNATO and ZSaudi Arabia created AL CIADA aka ISIS aka Daesh aka Al Nursa aka the White Helmets and all offshoots thereof to support the greater Israel project which involves the destruction of the middle east for the satanic zionists.

    Turkey all these years has provided one of the main supply lines for the terrorists, by the way the worst of the terrorists wear suits and reside in Tel Aviv and NYC and Washington DC and London and have been there for decades, spreading terror throughout the world.

    Russia knows that the terrorists must be defeated in Syria and if not there, the terrorists next stop is Russia, therefore Turkey will be defeated in Syria, no holds barred and the mistake Putin made was saving Erdogans life in the failed coup in Turkey, as Erodogan is a terrorist himself, which Putin must now realize.

    God Bless Putin and Russia and Assad and the people of Syria.

    • Agree: bluedog
  67. anonymous[248] • Disclaimer says:
    @Smith

    And do you understand ISLAMOPHOBIA now?

    Do you understand Islamophobia? You only understand what your handlers have instilled in you.

    Islamophobia is the evil action of rabid pagan/godless mangods-worshipping peoples (your elites/clergy/swamis/monks and their lickspittle such as you) instinctively fighting back on the spiritual ideology of True Monotheism, the only logical comprehension of Divinity, which such cursed degenerates see as a mortal danger to their own godless faiths.

    This is the main reason why Islam is world enemy n0.1, for I fail to see what evil, muslims have committed, which is worse than what y’all have wrought on humankind.

    Islamophobia is, if you can’t logically counter the faith, simply vilify it… and yes, slaughter millions of those you vilify, and then conveniently place the blame on the faith and its adherents.

    See… The Almighty One wills those who will ultimately meet Him wearing the blessed shroud of True Monotheism, which can even be you (!!), but since I am not a saint, I wish all rabid Islamophobes, hell-on-earth… and Hell later.

    The same kind of hell-on-earth the likes of you have ensured for so many innocent muslims.

    God willing.

    • Replies: @Poco
    , @Smith
  68. Not much to debate… Like it or not – Russia was invited by the Syrians. Turkey – is doing like what NATO countries often do – intervening in countries when they shouldn’t. Turkey shouldn’t even be in NATO. It’s not in the North Atlantic area. It’s a big joke. Buys S-400’s and wants the F35 also… Claims it’s moderate but supports jihadists all the way from ISIS rebels to the Uighurs in China (of whom many are fighting in Syria right now – and were given transit by Turkey). Turkey seems very confused as to what it wants to be. I guess that goes all the way back to Byzantium.
    In any event – there should be no debate. Turkey can protect it’s border – but it has no business going into Turkey… Unless it expects to be attacked.

  69. unit472 says:

    I don’t care to wander into the complexities of the Syrian Civil War but it looks to me like Russia wants the place, if they agree to keep the Iranians at bay, that satisfies Israel and by extension, the US. Let them have it. OTOH Erdogan has repeatedly shown he is too erratic and reckless to run a major regional power.

    Russia, the US and the EU need to make it clear to the Turkish military Erdogan has got to go.

    • Replies: @Oscar Peterson
    , @Alfred
  70. George says:

    “at the very last minute”

    US military and government types living in the gulf live opulent lifestyles possibly including Epstein type entertainment. They don’t need much convincing to not go to war with Iran. I suspect if the Iranians can hit a barracks in Iraq with a missile, a mansion in Bahrain would be just as easy. I wonder if the Generals+NeoCons told Trump the Iranians could not hit targets accurately.

  71. JamesinNM says:

    Perhaps Russia will target the Tupris Kırıkkale Oil Refinery in central Turkey.

  72. @FB

    “Ultimately it boils down to this…”

    Uuuum, no.

  73. @MLK

    You honestly believe with a straight face that Iraq wants US presence there…?? And on what planet is destroying and physically occupying a nation seen as “largesse”…???
    As to the potential for sanctions…. There is an old Jamaican saying which roughly translates to – “if everyday you carry the same bucket to the well – eventually the bottom will fall out”. The bottom is already weakening as we write.

  74. Anonymous[275] • Disclaimer says:
    @Mustapha Mond

    Merde-gun, the Turkish Turd Cannon

    Lol!

    I’m usually very reluctant to call World’s bigwigs crazy or out of control because they do have access to expert advice and information that’s simply not available to a civilian like me.

    That said, Merdegun is one of those rare cases where nothing can justify the apparent insanity. There’s no missing puzzle piece that can make his actions less moronic and suicidal. I don’t know what the US and Israeli Jews promised him but the guy has completely forgotten who tried to overthrow and kill (yes, kill: he knows too much) his ass a few years back.

    Maybe they do want to start WW3 with him at their side (lol) but it’s much more likely that they want him to kill a bunch of Russians in Syria and get curbstomped in return. Result: Turkey-Russia relations poisoned for decades (at least) and the unpopular, bloodied, Turkish leader ready for another coup. Then, they can start planning big moves with less unpredictable chess pieces.

    • Agree: anon8383892
    • Replies: @Mustapha Mond
  75. @FB

    Actually, I think almost nobody is thinking about the straits.

    Russia and Turkey: It never got to the point of being a marriage. Putin has wanted that, but never Erdogan. He wants to play off the US and Russia. In so doing, he has perhaps been too clever by half. In any case, a Russia-Turkey entente had real value for Russia, so it’s definitely a loss if, as seems likely, it founders.

    The other issue for Putin is that if Erdogan were ultimately to be forced out by policy disaster in Syria, his replacement is likely to be more pro-West than Erdogan has been, so that’s another potential negative.

    Putin is certainly a more deliberate, calculating strategist than Erdogan. E. has wanted to do too much at once given the resources he has. But nevertheless, I maintain that Putin has taken considerable risks and he’s not out of the forest yet.

    We’ll see what bluffs get called very shortly.

    • Replies: @FB
  76. @Mustapha Mond

    Well, I agree that Erdogan does talk too much–and his reach does appear to exceed his grasp. He could learn a lot from Putin in that regard. Turkey is not yet in a position to deal with Israel. (Israel, in my view, was the main reason Turkey bought the S-400.)

    Nonetheless, the break with Israel is real. One can see that since 2009, when it became obvious, US hostility towards Turkey has grown by leaps and bounds–mostly because of Israel and its operatives. I think there was at least US foreknowledge of the 2016 coup against Erdogan.

    The Syria mess has been a strategic disaster for the Turks. When you consider where they was in 2010, it’s pretty sad. But I would not call him “Zionist controlled” or anything close–just somewhat lacking in strategic judgment.

    Hopefully, he and Putin can work out something, because Russian-Turkish hostility redounds to Israel’s benefit more than anyone else’s. (Superficially, it would appear to benefit the US as well, but since US policy in the Middle East is tied to the dead weight of Israel, we can’t really say that there is any authentic US long-term strategy that can derive meaningful benefit from Russia-Turkey tensions.)

    • Replies: @Mustapha Mond
    , @Anonymous
  77. SteveK9 says:

    I don’t see anyone mentioning the fact that Russia is building a $25B nuclear power plant in Turkey, at its own expense. Russia just completed the ‘Turkstream’ gas pipeline to Turkey, which will not only supply gas to Turkey but allow them to earn money from transit fees to Southern Europe. Currently Russian gas supplies the bulk of Turkey’s energy needs through the ‘Bluestream’ pipeline. Russia is selling the premier AD system in the World to Turkey, the S-400. Turkey has major agricultural exports to Russia. Russian tourists make up a large and critical part of that industry, which is very important to Turkey. Turkey is part of or planning to join a variety of Eurasian integration organizations, of which Russia is a key member.

    This has to be part of some internal Turkish politics I don’t understand, because why would you risk throwing all that in the garbage for a worthless strip of Syrian territory?

    • Replies: @Antares
    , @Swedish Family
  78. @unit472

    “…if [the Russians] agree to keep the Iranians at bay, that satisfies Israel and by extension, the US. Let them have [Syria].

    Why is the satisfaction of Israel a criterion?

  79. Putin gave wannabe sultan too long leash. Judging by recent Lavrov statement
    https://newinform.com/211208-lavrov-nazval-zayavleniya-o-peremirii-v-idlibe-kapitulyaciei-pered-terroristami
    he is about to shorten it.

    Wannabe sultan has a huge problem: he is trying to play alpha while not even being qualified to play beta.

    As far as the Straits are concerned, everybody on this thread is ignoring an elephant in the room: given an order, Russian guns deployed on the Crimean coast can seriously widen those Straights. Even dumb wannabe sultan knows that. He also knows that if Russia decides to act against Turkey, it can crash Turkish economy. It’s not just the exports of Turkish agricultural products to Russia that are at stake, but Russian tourists in Turkey and numerous Turkish workers employed in Russia. If wannabe sultan chooses confrontation with Russia, he would prove himself even dumber than I think. We’ll see.

    • Replies: @Anonymous
  80. Wielgus says:
    @Mustapha Mond

    Turkish trade with Israel actually increased when diplomatic ties were cut – they were restored shortly before the odd coup attempt in 2016. A lot of Erdogan’s anti-Israel steam was just that – steam. Aimed at impressing domestic constituencies and some Arabs.

    • Agree: Mustapha Mond
  81. MLK says:

    Your comment amounts to a complaint over semantics –and I’m generously ignoring your substitution of ‘need’ with “want.”

    Under the totality of the circumstances, including the utter lack of an available alternative, yes, Iraq needs the US deep pockets and access to markets for its oil that would dry up in an instant with a single tweet from the POTUS.

    Who do you suggest Iraq aspire to become given the current lay of the land, Venezuela? Cuba, Russia, and China have looted it back to the Stone Age in return for keeping the bus driver in power. Lebanon, where Iran and its Hezbollah savages have decided for the whole of the country to drive out Saudi and Gulf Arab largesse to consolidate their position amongst the increasing detonation of Lebanon’s financial system and economy?

    By the way, I use the word ‘largesse’ in lieu of euphemisms such as aid etc. that I find embarrassing to type out. The USG is a sovereign. It ain’t cute and cuddly. But neither are any of the others, least of all Iran. Though this is something many here naively can’t get their minds around.

    I, for one, was not at all surprised that Iran had a hard time executing after Trump took the oath. After all, Bush/Obama gifted it regional expansion beyond its wildest dreams before 2003.

    What are you gonna do, shit happens.

    • Troll: bluedog
    • Replies: @AnonFromTN
    , @NoseytheDuke
  82. Alfred says:
    @MLK

    The dirty little secret is that both Iraq and Iran need the US to remain in Iraq

    No one in the region needs the USA – other than Israel. Your comments are a total nonsense from A-Z.

    Read and try to learn – unless you are here to try and confuse others.

    The multipolar world will certainly be formed, first in global hotspots where crucial battles are fought, and then it will be transmitted to other parts of the world. All we see now is merely delaying this inevitable process

    Strategic vs. Tactical: How the West and its Allies are Trying to Conceal Their Strategic Defeats at the Tactical Level

    • Agree: anon8383892
  83. Alfred says:
    @anonymous

    Israel and Russia – Putin – are the only two countries where are benefiting from Trump coming to power

    Nothing would please the Russians more than Bernie Sanders winning the election. It would accelerate the move downhill by the USA. Capital would flee. But that is something that Socialists can never understand.

    Democrats Starting to Split – Is the End of the USA Near

  84. FB says: • Website
    @Oscar Peterson

    Well…I notice that you keep mentioning ‘policy disaster’ regarding Putin’s Syria operation…

    So let’s look at a map of Syria in 2015, before Russian intervention, and 2020…

    Now I don’t know anyone that would look at that and think ‘policy disaster’…

    So how could this situation now devolve into a ‘disaster’…hard to imagine…

    Maybe Dame Lindsey Graham will get a very large broom and sweep the Russkies out of Syria so he can impose a ‘no fly zone’…?

    Militarily this is impossible…I have previously argued at length here on this forum that right from the get-go the Russian military presence in Syria is not a castle that can fall…I did this in response to Saker and Martyanov who held that the Russian contingent could in fact be swept aside by means of a large US and allied operation…

    But this is a technical discussion that requires a certain amount of professional knowledge about these things…however, it is easier to understand this fact by simple logic…would the Russian general staff have been willing to risk an intervention that could fail and be annihilated, if push came to shove…?

    Of course not…that is simply not how these things work…these guys aren’t playing video games…Russia is a military superpower and putting that prestige on the line is not something you gamble with…

    So no, the ‘risks’ that you mention have been diligently and professionally assessed and every contingency prepared for…

    The results to date speak for themselves…now what is to happen if Erdogan decides to go full in…?

    The answer is simple…he cannot salvage the terrorists because that is a losing proposition on every level…Russia is vulnerable to the Jihadist threat, which is one of the reasons why the US has been accommodating to them…they do play a useful role in the geopolitical power struggle…

    But it is a red line for Putin and all of Russia…so it comes down to a very simple question…is pissant Turkey going to bring a superpower to heel, against its core [even existential] interest…?

    I think the answer is obvious…btw Erdogan told his parliament that he has asked Russia to ‘step aside’ and let Turkey fight Syria ‘face to face’…LOL…as if the real world works that way…

    • Agree: Desert Fox
  85. Anonymous[247] • Disclaimer says:
    @FB

    Sorry, but he wrote “air operations over Syria”
    and you chose to read “Turkey is NOT flying any kind of aircraft over Syria other than combat drones…more on that in a minute…Turkish aircraft are absolutely NOT flying into Syrian territory because they would be toast IMMEDIATELY…”
    air operations vs aircraft: see the difference?
    also, if you want, check out this video:
    to see how Turkey is conducting air ops over Syria:

    You are so desperate to bark up the Saker and display your supposed expertise that you have to misrepresent what Saker wrote.
    Pathetic, really…

    • Agree: Desert Fox
    • Replies: @FB
  86. @Turk 152

    “I think this it is a religious thing coming from the Vatican. They want a Christian Europe.”

    Are you joking? Pope Faggot and the rest of the Vatican are firmly in the pocket of Globohomo, just as Turkey and Saudi Arabia are.

    The Vatican doesn’t want a Christian Europe, it wants a Europe run by globalists, feminists, environmentalists and homosexuals.

    • Agree: Beefcake the Mighty
    • Replies: @Desert Fox
    , @RadicalCenter
  87. Alfred says:
    @unit472

    Russia wants the place

    Russia is not an occupier – unlike Israel, the USA and Turkey.

    if they agree to keep the Iranians at bay, that satisfies Israel

    No one in the Middle East gives a fuck about the wishes of Israel. They are a cancer that has destroyed or corrupted all its neighbors. Israel is losing big time strategically and their public is totally ignorant. It is only a matter of time before there will be millions of European Jews flooding back to where they came from.

    Why do you think the Russians are changing their constitution to make it impossible for dual-nationals to take over the state – as they have done in Ukraine?

    Moreover, the changes stipulate that only a citizen of the Russian Federation not younger than 35 years of age, with a permanent residence record in the country of not less than 20 years and no dual citizenship or foreign residency permit may be elected president. These restrictions on having dual citizenship will also apply to members of parliament, local administration, members of government, etc.

    Russia to drop dual citizenship restriction to stem depopulation

    The above restrictions were especially created for this forthcoming event.

  88. Antares says:
    @SteveK9

    This has to be part of some internal Turkish politics I don’t understand, because why would you risk throwing all that in the garbage for a worthless strip of Syrian territory?

    Perhaps that strip is just as worthless as the Golan Heights. I don’t think that Erdogan sees this as a risk but as an oppotunity. The more trouble he makes the more he will get.

    • Replies: @Antares
  89. @Johnny Smoggins

    Agree, in fact the pope is a satanist!

    • Agree: Republic
  90. FB says: • Website
    @Anonymous

    Look pissant…I’m not here to split hairs about phrasing…

    Also I have gathered more info on those Turkish drones that are allegedly raining hell on the SAA…well, it turns out that the footage released by Turkey, including a shot at a Pantsir air defense unit was filmed in Libya…they fired on a UAE Pantsir, which uses a German MAN chassis instead of the Russian Kamaz…

    Basically bullshit…it took a little effort to ascertain the facts here…but the Turkey drone videos are horseshit…the buildings are also flat-roofed types which are seen in Libya, but not in Aleppo, or Syria generally…little bit of fakery by the esteemed Sultan…LOL

    • Replies: @Poiuytrewq
    , @Anonymous
  91. Poco says:
    @anonymous

    Islamophobia ay?
    Islamophobia- A word created by liars, and used by cowards, to manipulate morons.

    • Agree: Gleimhart Mantooso
  92. @FB

    Correct. The short story on the technicals pre-2018 was always the Yars ICBM complex, which could be targeted at anything in MENA with dial-a-yields galore — use your imagination. After the demo in spring 2018 you could add Kinzhals and potentially Avangards to the mix. ‘Tripwire’ is not a term I find particularly apt in this case, but no one was beyond reach or anything. The balance of terror.

  93. Europe is about to get a whole lot more (young and male) diversity

    • Replies: @Talha
    , @RadicalCenter
  94. Jake says:

    Never under-estimate Turkish greed and arrogance. Also never under-estimate WASP (Yank or Brit) hubris and deceitfulness.

    Also never under-estimate Israeli bribes for Turks to ally with them against the Iranians.

    • Agree: Desert Fox
  95. @Oscar Peterson

    Yes, but I meant response against the Turks themselves–not just the jihadis. Of course, there was a kind of response against Turkey, but it consisted of economic sanctions and such–pretty much symbolic.

    I’m not sure the Turk/jihadi distinction is very meaningful in the context of 2015.

    As I remember, the SU-24 was shot down to deter Russia from conducting further bombings of pro-Erdogan rebels on the Syrian side of the Turco-Syrian border. I also believe Turks, or at least Erdogan and his people, viewed these people as Turkish rather than Assyrian. This response, in other words, was both an attack on people many Turks saw as their own and a signal that Russia would not stop its bombing campaign. Not a very strong response, true, but not nothing either. And I think timed proved that Putin did the right thing in not escalating things beyond this.

  96. @Anonymous

    First, glad you liked the new moniker for Merdegun. I thought it fit him quite well, too. Been using it for many years. He richly deserves it.

    “…and get curbstomped in return.” THAT made me LMFAO! Very funny. And true.

    Ultimately, I agree with your analysis. The Turkish Turd Cannon is playing a wicked double game and it may result in souring Russian-Turkish relations for years to come. You’d think the economic benefits would outweigh all that, but big egos make for big mistakes, all too often.

    Worst of all, many, many innocent lives will be lost. These are not ‘games’ for the little guys at the bottom, fighting just to improve the lot of their countrymen and women. Just another sad chapter in the doleful book that is human history.

    Thanks for the reply!

    MM

  97. @Oscar Peterson

    So if there were a state of hostilities between Russia and Turkey, Russian merchant vessels would not enjoy freedom of transit anyway.

    Aha, that clears it up, then. But as you point out, this article basically assumes a war situation, so the closing of the Bosporus would have to follow a declaration of war.

    • Replies: @Oscar Peterson
  98. @Oscar Peterson

    Hello Oscar!

    Thanks for the thoughtful response.

    Gosh, I want to believe you’re right, that it’s not all just some very well done Kabuki act. Hope you are right, actually.

    But from what I’ve seen from Merdegun’s actual conduct, I still have a gut feeling his Turkish first names “Recep Tyyip”would be more suitable in English as “Don May”………

    (I just hope he doesn’t eventually give a NAZO-sized stab in the Russians’ back, far greater than the shoot-down a few years ago of the Russian SU-24…..)

    Cheers!

    MM

  99. @SteveK9

    This has to be part of some internal Turkish politics I don’t understand, because why would you risk throwing all that in the garbage for a worthless strip of Syrian territory?

    Exactly my thinking too. Geopolitically, Turkey’s actions make little sense, but perhaps he feels a need to please his base or save face.

  100. Anonymous[275] • Disclaimer says:
    @Oscar Peterson

    I think there was at least US foreknowledge of the 2016 coup against Erdogan.

    It was a 100% (Jewish led) US coup.

    – No other country had enough influence in Turkey to set it in motion. Germany, Greece or Russia are exactly twice as likely to be the culprits behind the coup than Papua New Guinea. That’s still zero, mathematically.

    – The US behaviour during the coup and the CIA “leaks” to the press were very much anti-Merdegun. This only changed when it became obvious that the project failed.

    – Merdegun and his administration openly blamed the US for the coup. Not only were they perfectly positioned to waterboard everyone and retrace their steps but the fact that they did make the claim is proof enough. You don’t make an accusation like that against the most powerful country in the world, with an insane parasite infesting its brain, if you’re only 99% certain.

  101. Talha says:
    @Just passing through

    This was exactly the point in my post. Turkey is inundated with thousands of people fleeing the fighting in that particular region. The Syrian government’s offensive kept pushing people to flee North into Turkey (and eventually headed for Europe). The existence of armed militant groups and even terrorists in that area is completely secondary to Turkey’s concern in stopping this mass movement of people into its territory. If that means taking over 5% of Syria and killing a few hundred (or thousand) Syrian soldiers (and severely degrading their mechanized capability) and losing a few dozen (or a couple hundred) of their own, it seems the Turks have made the calculation that it is well worth it, even if it means pissing off Russia and the US – neither of which want to get into a serious fight with Turkey and will probably do some economic strong arming (none of which possibly overrides the economic consequences/cost of taking in thousands and thousands of refugees). And then they can always negotiate return of sovereignty in 3-5 years once the flow of people has been reversed.

    It is in the interests of Europe to support whatever stops the fighting as quickly as possible (Syrian territorial integrity can be negotiated and restored later – not like Syria drew its unnatural straight-line borders in the first place) and allows them to start repatriating refugees..

    Peace.

    • Thanks: Just passing through
    • Replies: @FB
    , @FB
    , @Alfred
  102. Anonymous[275] • Disclaimer says:
    @AnonFromTN

    I don’t see how tourism can survive current events anyway. A sizeable number of Turks have died already so the rabble will want blood, revenge and conquest. Merdegun’s insane rhetoric is certainly not helping.

    Non-Muslim Russians would have to be crazy to holiday in Turkey from now on. As a white European, I’ve blacklisted the shithole years ago. The country was always filled with goat-fucking hobbyists who dream about another Ottoman conquest.

    • Replies: @AnonFromTN
  103. Prognosis for Syria and War: Random:

    Spreadsheet of Players:

    ————– Intelligence ——— Temperament ———————– Ego

    Erdogan — Moron ———– Impulsive, Overambitious ———- Infantile Megalomaniac

    Trump — Idiot (foreign pol) — Impulsive, Overreacts — Infantile Narcissist Megalomaniac

    Putin ——– Bright, Knows History —- Deliberate, Calculating —– Proud, Patriot

    In sum: one rational player, two irrational.
    Conclusion: Player actions mostly unpredictable, thus chance of wider war random.

    The only non-random variable is Iran.
    The decisive players, US and Israel, want war.
    War will happen because the Twin Golems can’t keep their claws off the honey pot.
    Wider war likely because of so many explosive ingredients and interests.

  104. @FB

    Ruffled feathers apparently
    He obviously got to you 🙂

  105. Nuncle says:

    Half the world’s geopolitical problems are the direct result of the opposition of the British to a Russian conquest of the Ottoman Empire in the 19th century. In the normal course of things, Russia would have defeated the Ottomans, regained Constantinople for Christendom, and turned the empire into its back yard. But the British took the side of the empire against Russia and the results are still with us today.

    • Agree: Robjil, Alfred
  106. FB says: • Website
    @Talha

    Talha…the fucking Hindustan IDIOT…

    The Syrian government’s offensive kept pushing people to flee North into Turkey (and eventually headed for Europe).

    Sorry to burst your idiot bubble but Turkey was funneling those Jihadists into Syria from DAY ONE…

    There is such a thing as CONSEQUENCES…

    Who the fuck cares if a bank robber has a disabled daughter…?

    It doesn’t give him the right to rob banks…

    Most of those ‘people’ you talk about are hardcore jihadists and their families…why didn’t they accept the Syrian govt’s offer of amnesty as many thousands did…?

    Those who did take that offer have been reintegrated into society and are living normal lives…but the fanatical religious mindset that predominates the calculus among these critters has nothing to do with normal human life…these cockroaches put suicide vests on their own children…

    Jihadi mum kisses tiny daughters, aged seven and nine, goodbye – then sends them off on suicide bomb mission

    How do you justify that…?

    You are the stupidest dildo I’ve come across today…get a fucking brain and start learning how to use it…

    • Agree: Parfois1, Alfred
  107. @Anonymous

    The English are so “based” that they have, in recent years and with overwhelming public support, introduced homosexual “marriage” (including, de facto, in that pathetic division of The Secularist Society called “The Church of England”); “transgender rights”; “hate speech laws”. They are so based that unlike France, Belgium and Switzerland the niqab remains legal in all circumstances and there still has not been a single successful prosecution for FGM. They are so based that apparently “islamophobia” is the main problem facing society, meanwhile even notionally right-wing parties such as BNP and even UKIP and Brexit Party score pathetic single digits in national and local elections. They are so based that tens of thousands of white girls are being raped across the country by muslims with barely a wimper of protest from the white populations. But you already knew all of this, troll.

  108. FB says: • Website
    @Talha

    …The existence of armed militant groups and even terrorists in that area is completely secondary to Turkey’s concern in stopping this mass movement of people into its territory. If that means taking over 5% of Syria and killing a few hundred (or thousand) Syrian soldiers (and severely degrading their mechanized capability) and losing a few dozen (or a couple hundred) of their own…

    More fresh diarrhea from a lobotomy patient…

    Excuse me ‘Talha’… but I couldn’t help but notice that you are weighing hundres [or even thousands] of Syrian soldiiers against a few ‘dozen’ Turkish scum…

    Get real man…Turkey’s getting creamed…and it would be far far worse if it wasn’t for the good offices of VVP…

    PS…I originally took you for a Hindustan mental patient, but apparently you are a Sunni Fanatic…good luck with that…let me know when some honest citizen decides to rearrange your face…

    • Agree: Gleimhart Mantooso
    • Replies: @Talha
  109. Anonymous[383] • Disclaimer says:
    @FB

    I’m not here to split hairs about phrasing…

    No, you did not split hairs, you created a 100% genuine strawman.
    Just like when you mention the Pantsir – the Saker did not say a word about this.
    As for the “horseshit” videos, they are from Turkish drones over Syria you moron, LOL!

    • Replies: @FB
  110. Fred777 says:
    @Anonymous

    “This influx will likely be huge and it’s on Vlad.”

    Nope, it’s on the Euro govts that let them in.

  111. FB says: • Website
    @Anonymous

    As for the “horseshit” videos, they are from Turkish drones over Syria you moron, LOL!

    No, that’s total bullshit…the Libya drone strikes have been conclusively proven…the Turkish videos are fake…don’t waste my time asshat…

    • Replies: @Anonymous
  112. Talha says:
    @FB

    Turkey’s getting creamed

    If you say so. 10+ Syrian soldiers plus dozens of tanks and vehicles to one of theirs…uh ok.

    it would be far far worse if it wasn’t for the good offices of VVP

    Well that’s part of the calculation; that Putin really doesn’t care that much about Syria losing 5-10% of its territory to go into a full fight with Turkey. That’s why the Syrian army is about to run into a brick wall. I’ve even seen videos of Turkey taking out SAMs (possibly manned by Syrians or mercenaries). If Russia wanted to step in, they would have done so a day ago.

    How do you justify that…?

    I don’t.

    Your claim that all refugees – including children – are Jihadi fanatics is duly noted. That just makes it even more important for Europe to make sure they don’t get in.

    Now, I didn’t claim what Turkey was doing was morally justified, I specifically said there is a political calculation into why they are making the move that they did and I was exploring what that calculation was.

    The Syrian government now has a choice; they can try to go toe to toe with Turkey alone for that small piece of territory – since Russia may well have a plan to have it returned to Syria eventually, but doesn’t seem interested in sacrificing a whole lot in the short term to make that happen – or they can negotiate. I could be wrong and Russia might start bombing Turkish positions and kill off a thousand in a couple of days – we’ll see. Saker says they have their coordinates so that should be a cakewalk.

    Again, I personally think most Europeans couldn’t care less about who plants their flag on that piece of territory in the short term BUT they are right to be very concerned about thousands more refugees coming across the border just as a virus pandemic is kicking off.

    Calling me names on the Internet won’t make reality go away.

    Peace.

    • Replies: @FB
    , @Anonymous
  113. @NoseytheDuke

    Her screen name is (((Katz))). Perhaps that helps to explain the mindless animal desire to see Russians suffer.

    • Thanks: NoseytheDuke
  114. @Just passing through

    Why would the weather make it impossible to stop the aggressive illegal entries? Do the Greeks’ machine guns and tanks and cannon not work in warm weather?

    It’s purely a question of “political will” aka balls.

    Mow them down and clear the corpses away from the border.

    • Agree: Alfred, Bill Jones
    • Replies: @Just passing through
  115. Popeye says:
    @SteveK9

    I’m an old conservative white
    Male American. I think Bernie Hillary E.Warren Bloomberg are not better than a bag of cat shit…and let me say that erdogan is not worth the blood of one American military personnel. Erdogan can go eat cat shit And fxxk Hillary for lunch

  116. We all know that who the real ennemy of the West is: erdogan, the pathetic psychopatic loser.
    This nonby sees himself as some sort of Hitler misex with some Sultan of old, but he’s been doing only bad things after the others for his country.
    He’s now, and again blackmailing the so called ‘European ‘union’, a bunch of yellow bellies trying to recreate the USSR with pitiful Belgium as its epicentre.

    It’s easy for the goatfucker erdogan to bully weak and corrupted nullities like merkel, macron and the kommisars in brussels, but not that easy to win agaisnt real men in Syria, Libya and Russia.

    Piece of shit erdogan will end up where he belongs, flushed deep into the toilets of history.

    His numerous mistake might, at least, help the real Europeans to wake up , strike back , expel all the gaotfuckers destroying their lands and finally expel the turks from European lands from Contantinople to Nicea.

  117. @Anonymous

    I’ve never understood this “influx” nonsense.

    Ultimately, the blame for invaders actually making it into a country falls on the country lacking the very will to live and control its own territory: the guts to gun down invaders, whether the traitorous media call them “immigrants” or “refugees” or not.

    This was and always is an option. It’s called having a country and having borders.

  118. @RadicalCenter

    I personally don’t think it would even require mass casualties, warning shots followed by sniper fire if the warning shots are not a deterrent would probably destroy their illusions that Europe will take them in with open arms and make them realise they will be treated like they would be treated by every other sane country if they try to force their way in. Then they would turn away and go back to Turkey.

    As for the Africans who enter through Italy via the Mediterranean, simply not rescuing them and letting them drown would stop further crossings.

    • Agree: RadicalCenter
  119. @MLK

    Venezuela? Cuba, Russia, and China have looted it back to the Stone Age

    Care to elaborate how does this statement square with the fact that the US stole (in purely criminal sense of this word) about $10 billion of Venezuela assets? What’s more, the US publicly announced the commitment of this crime, so the guilty party cannot even deny it.

    • Replies: @MLK
  120. FB says: • Website
    @Talha

    Well,,,your absolutely fantastic reply is about what I expected…total mushroomland…

    …10+ Syrian soldiers plus dozens of tanks and vehicles to one of theirs…

    Care to back that up with ACTUAL FACTS…?

    The Turkish proxies have been getting creamed…your equation is on backwards…just like your Dunce Cap…[or whatever kind of Fez you Sunni nuts wear…]

    The capture of Saraqib by the Turkish backed terrorists was a meat grinder…just one example…

    The actual Turkish soldiers killed came about only because Erdog stepped over the line and started shooting manpad missiles at Russian aircraft…again, CONSEQUENCES…

    The Syrian government now has a choice; they can try to go toe to toe with Turkey alone for that small piece of territory…

    Wow…you’re really hardcore…Allahu Akbar…

    But it doesn’t help much does it…the SAA has regained over two thousand square kilometers in the last couple of months…that’s the fact, Jack…

    Now as for Syria ‘going it alone’…well, this is the money shot right there…Erdog told his ‘parliament’ that he told VVP on the phone to ‘step aside’…so that pissant Turkey can go at Syria ‘face to face’…

    And I guess in your Sunnistan estimation VVP is going to oblige pissant Turkey…?

    Yeah…no, let’s wait and see what happens next…

    PS…about the ‘European’ puppets…I see that VVP has declined Erdo’s offer to meet with Merkel and Micron…apparently he has a full ‘schedule’…LOL

    So Erdog will be trekking to the Kremlin instead…

    You need to get a working brain friend…Russia is a superpower…Turkey is a pissant…size matters…

    • Replies: @Talha
  121. @Anonymous

    A few hundred crazies demonstrated in front of the Russian embassy. Millions of Turks depend on Russian tourists economically, know it, and welcome them. The anxiety about possible souring of relations with Russia is all over media in Turkey. That’s the Turkish side of the coin.

    The Russian side is mixed. On the one hand, Turkish tourist agencies and hotels made the stay in Turkey dirt-cheap for Russians. A holiday in Crimea would cost three times as much. On the other hand, if I lived in Russia and had only Russian passport, I would not go to Turkey. So, we’ll see what transpires next.

    BTW, I was in Turkey some years ago (long before CIA-organized coup that failed). I must say that Istanbul, despite the profusion of mosques, feels more Mediterranean that Moslem. Ankara is more Islamic, as well as the areas around it. However, Turks are remarkably organized and efficient. We wanted to pick up our rental car at the train station in Ankara (where we rode train from Istanbul) and drop it off at the airport in a distant city, and they accomplished it all without a hitch. We booked hotels everywhere via Internet, and everything worked fine. What’s more, Turks drive almost like Germans, observing the rules, so in that sense they are way ahead of most of Europe. I wouldn’t go there now, anyway, and I think Russians shouldn’t, either.

    • Agree: RadicalCenter
  122. Smith says:
    @anonymous

    Islamophobia, as said, is when people react to islamics riling up their islamics fucking shit in their host countries.

    Shut up and eat bombs, jihadist.

  123. or how pathetically the Patriots actually performed (recently in the KSA and elsewhere before that).

    Saker is an ignorant moron. Willfully obtuse. Patriot missiles have performed well. Only leftist idiots have dissed the systems, and only for political reasons. Saker disses them because it would be convenient for his pipe dreams if they didn’t perform well. That Putin’s post-soviet air defense missiles work poorly is an extreme inconvenience to Saker’s drug induced dreams.

    / Ukraine (from Russia) /

    Like it or not, Ukraine is an independent country and wanted that for centuries. Putin needs it back so he can re-establish his neo-Tsarist empire. He’s trying to take Georgia by gradual encroachment and is now threatening Belarus. Anyone seriously thinking that Putin is sweetness and light, who doesn’t want to re-establish the Soviet Empire, is engaging self deception. Putin’s actions tell the story quite well.

    • LOL: bluedog
    • Replies: @FB
  124. Anonymous[247] • Disclaimer says:
    @FB

    Wrong!
    There is a Pantsir video out there which was mistakenly reported as being in Syria, and it was in Libya. But nobody (not even saker) referred to that video. But on the video posted, you can, if you watch long enough, see videos taken by Turkish drone operators, and they strike Syrian personnel.
    You are truly pathetic, your need to constantly piss around the four corners of this comment section is the behavior of an insecure dog desperate to impress.
    Yeah, it stinks. It’s yours.
    But *nobody* is impressed 😛

    • Replies: @FB
  125. FB says: • Website
    @Anonymous

    Look here pinhead…you have taken up more bandwidth here than you are entitled to…I trust you won’t continue squirting diarrhea here…

  126. Talha says:
    @FB

    Care to back that up with ACTUAL FACTS…?

    I would suggest people keep up with this guy (@epoddubny):

    let’s wait and see what happens next…

    Agreed. If Russia starts pounding hundreds of Turkish soldiers into the dirt, you will be correct and I will be completely wrong so I guess we wait to see dozens of videos of Turkish soldiers and equipment being lit up.

    The Turkish proxies have been getting creamed

    No problems there, they are a dime a dozen and I don’t think anybody is really mourning their loss, including the Turks who seemed to only be concerned when their troops were directly hit.

    Russia is a superpower…Turkey is a pissant…size matters…

    Well, yeah Russia is a superpower, but that doesn’t necessarily mean it is willing to get into a full fight with Turkey for a small portion of Syria. And Turkey has shown that it

    Again, screaming names at me over the internet is not going to change what happens in Syria, so we’ll see.

    Peace.

    • Replies: @FB
  127. FB says: • Website
    @Quartermaster

    Patriot missiles have performed well. Only leftist idiots have dissed the systems, and only for political reasons.

    Look Fartstain…you must be a glutton for punishment, because you have a habit of squirting demonstrably false diarrhea…and in massive spurts that are unequaled on this forum…

    Let’s look at what happened in December, 2017 in Saudi Arabia, when Houthis fired knockoff Scud missiles at the Wahhabi kingdom…

    At around 9 p.m., about the same time debris crashed in Riyadh, a loud bang shook the domestic terminal at Riyadh’s King Khalid International Airport.

    “There was an explosion at the airport,” a man said in a video taken moments after the bang. He and others rushed to the windows as emergency vehicles streamed onto the runway.

    Did American Missile Defense Fail in Saudi Arabia? New York Times

    A Houthi spokesman said the missile had targeted the airport.

    There’s another reason the analysts think the warhead flew past the missile defenses. They located the Patriot batteries that fired on the missile, shown in this video, and found that the warhead traveled well over the top of them.

    LOLOLOL…

    Laura Grego, a missile expert at the Union of Concerned Scientists, expressed alarm that Saudi defense batteries had fired five times at the incoming missile.

    “You shoot five times at this missile and they all miss? That’s shocking,” she said. “That’s shocking because this system is supposed to work.”

    Laura Grego…PhD in experimental physics from Caltech…and bona fides a mile long…

    Look Fartstain…you’re obviously developmentally challenged, so I will go easy on you…but you have to realize that these childish outbursts need to stop…now go to your high chair and eat your mashed peas…

  128. MLK says:
    @AnonFromTN

    I’m not going to get in the weeds with you about Venezuela. Despite your attempted deflection, surely you don’t believe that its experience on the outs with the US et. al. offers Iraq an alternative with Iran, Russia, and China?

    Iran in Iraq is akin to Cuba in Venezuela — bad news. Iran literally has nothing to offer Iraqis in return for lording it over those benighted people.

    • Troll: Denis, L.K
  129. Anonymous[275] • Disclaimer says:
    @Talha

    Well that’s part of the calculation; that Putin really doesn’t care that much about Syria losing 5-10% of its territory to go into a full fight with Turkey.

    It’s a foolish calculation. Putin must care about his allies’ territories if he wants to have any allies. Maybe this is a difficult concept (my word is my bond) for Turks like you who see the world as a giant fish market where every deal must be endlessly renegotiated and opportunistically twisted into oblivion. Who knows.

    Merdegun made a deal with Russia and Syria that specifically did not include lopping off parts of Syrian territory, firing missiles at Russian planes and trying to recruit NATO for a WW3-themed carnival. Before that, he made a blackmailers deal with Europe to not send immigrant hordes over the border. And before that, he was obviously too unreliable while carrying water for the Jews and the US which resulted in an attempted coup. There’s literally not a single party in this clusterfuck that he didn’t betray at least once.

    In short, Merdegun’s credibility is non-existent and that’s a very risky situation for everyone. Your own credibility is also fucked. Please stop talking about your Sultan’s love for immigrants. It’s embarrassing.

    • Agree: FB
    • Replies: @Talha
  130. @MLK

    I don’t know much about Venezuela. I only had one post-doc who was born in Venezuela, but he got his PhD in Brazil and then worked as a post-doc in another lab in the US. I know that quite a few peoples/countries would rather be independent and have lower living standards than be lorded over by the Empire. Not to mention that what the Empire brings today to the aborigines is wholesale robbery, chaos, and death (Iraq, Afghanistan, Yemen, Ukraine… should I continue?). Besides, the Empire is in decline, whereas its competition is ascending. The worst for the Empire is yet to come: when its green paper is no longer considered money, the Empire would have to live within its means, and that would be a miserable life. Some people are like ostriches: hide their heads to avoid seeing what’s coming. Remember, that does not prevent its coming.

    • Replies: @RadicalCenter
  131. Yevardian says:

    I don’t like the situation for Armenia should Turkey and Russia reach a point of open hostility, the mood there is getting very nervous.

    • Agree: Talha
  132. Talha says:
    @Anonymous

    I’m not a Turk so your comments are off the mark in that regard.

    I didn’t say Putin doesn’t care, I stated that he doesn’t seem to care enough to commit to a full-fledged fight with Turkey even as his ally’s military is getting wrecked. Turkey doesn’t seem keen on going further than the current area it has placed outposts in so it seems Putin considers this an acceptable (for now) development with a mind to negotiate Turkish withdrawal in the future.

    There’s literally not a single party in this clusterfuck that he didn’t betray at least once.

    I don’t disagree, still doesn’t change any of my points.

    love for immigrants

    Never said he loved them, I said they are causing a financial problem and instability in Turkey. Learn to argue the point.

    Peace.

    • Agree: Nonny Mouse
    • Replies: @FB
  133. FB says: • Website
    @Talha

    Well…my thin-skinned Sunni friend…

    The whole Idlib equation boils down to some very simple and iron-clad principles…

    Number one…Syria is entitled to exercise control over its legal and internationally recognized territory…

    Turkey has ZERO business being in Syria…much less propping up terrorists…

    Now here’s the thing…Russia has been biding its time [Putin is exceptional at timing]…hoping that Erdog would wean himself off his takfiri tendencies…but to no avail…

    Now you say that Russia may not want to go full in over a ‘small’ piece of Syria…well, that’s really reaching friend…that small piece of Syria is also a very real threat to Russia, or at least the Turkish-weaned takfiri devils within…

    Now the funny thing in all this is that pissant Erdogan really thinks he can dictate terms to Russia…and fools like you are clearly traveling in this mushroomland also…

    Well…you know what, VVP acts very decisively when the chips are down…a war with Turkey…?

    Big fucking deal…and here’s the kicker…Russia and its military is actually itching to cut down the Nato paper tiger by a notch or two…so you can cross the mighty ‘Nato’ wild card off right there…

    This isn’t Serbia 1999…we’re in a whole new ballgame here…the only thing is that there is a serious dollop of delusion infesting the ‘brain’ trust of the clowns that are running the show in Foggy Bottom…Esper too is a total jester, but his ability to bring the actual professional officer corps along is another matter altogether…

    Nobody in that professional officer class wants a piece of the Russian Bear…maybe you just don’t realize these basic facts…?

    So why should Russia exercise restraint and even appeasement here…?

    That is fucking retarded…those cards do not add up…

    Now that we have established that Russia is perfectly willing and capable to throw down when the need arises…we also reiterate that violence is the second choice…diplomacy having primacy…that is the Russian way…rules based order…?

    This is it…not some disneyland bullshit from the imperialist US and its puppets that constitute the storied ‘international community’ [of assholes]…

    And don’t forget China, the tandem that is aligned exactly in the same direction…in case you haven’t noticed, there’s been all kinds of writing on the wall that the Ponzi imperialist jig is up…there is no place to go but down…

    So, no…basic principles will not be sacrificed for a hair on fire pissant like Erdogan…not only that, but VVP and the Russian people have surely taken note of the Sultan’s hostile noises, especially about Russia ‘collapsing from within’ due to its ‘twenty five million’ Muslims…

    If Erdog really wanted to get the Bear’s dander up…well, he just hit the jackpot…the takfiris are scrap for the fire…there can be no compromising on that…

    So…since you are unable to see these basic parameters of the equation, I have to wonder what is wrong with you…?

    [Prompting me to go to all these lengths to lay out the math…since I would not want others here to come down with the same kind of retard virus…]

    • Thanks: Nonny Mouse
    • Replies: @Talha
    , @poop
    , @showmethereal
  134. FB says: • Website
    @Talha

    Putin doesn’t… seem to care enough to commit to a full-fledged fight with Turkey even as his ally’s military is getting wrecked.

    Wow…you really are unhinged…where is Syria’s military getting ‘wrecked’…?

    In the two thousand plus square kilometers they have seized from the Turkish backed terrorists…?

    So Turkey at very high cost has temporarily regained Saraqib…mostly because the elite SAA forces were transferred to the south, where they have racked up huge gains, nearly reaching the M4 highway…[spoiler alert…big time CAULDRON coming up…]

    Look man…i don’t want to be too harsh on you, seeing as you are sporting the prestigious [LOL] UNZ yellow star…but really, you need to join the reality based community…

  135. Talha says:
    @FB

    Turkey has ZERO business being in Syria

    Yeah except for the fact that Turkey has a border and thousands of people are pouring through it and causing instability. You don’t consider that a legitimate concern, which is fine. The one country that really has zero business is the US, whose troops are basically left to guard oil fields according to Trump.

    The rest of your comments can be summarized as:
    “Just you wait…Putin’s really, really going to give the Turks a huge whupping! Just you wait!”

    I’ll wait, I’ve got time. I won’t be necessarily surprised if Russia does as you say, but I simply see no indication that it has any intention to.

    In other words…I’ll believe it when I see it.

    what is wrong with you…?

    You just said; I have the retard virus so why are you asking?

    but really, you need to join the reality based community…

    I’m fine with you thinking Syrian forces are not getting seriously degraded by Turkish UAVs, I really don’t care to convince you otherwise.

    Peace.

  136. melpol says:

    Turkey is a 90% US puppet and an attack against Russian troops would not let the US off the hook. A Turkish bombing of Moscow would result in Moscow bombing Washington. Super powers negotiate before making war. Endogen is on the phone with Trump and is not given permission for war.

    • LOL: Matra, NoseytheDuke
  137. Talha says:
    @Talha

    “Turkish drones targeted a building in Aleppo countryside where [the] Syrian army was holding a military meeting, leading to deaths, including Brigadier Burhan Rahmun, commander of the 124 Brigade from the Republic Guard,” a source from the Syrian army told a Rudaw reporter in Syria.
    https://www.rudaw.net/english/middleeast/syria/280220202

    People can also keep up with this guy who is part of a group that tracks military losses across the board:

    But if people want to believe Syria has Turkey against the ropes, that’s cool with me.

    • Replies: @AnonFromTN
    , @Anon
  138. Avery says:
    @Talha

    {Yeah except for the fact that Turkey has a border and thousands of people are pouring through it and causing instability. You don’t consider that a legitimate concern,….}

    Yo, Talha:

    The 1,000s of people pouring from Syria into Turkey causing instability are, because…..some years ago, Turkey was a huge contributor and participant by proxy of the ISIS cannibal terrorists’ invasion into Syria. Turkey was the conduit of weapons and materiel for the terrorist gangs.
    Turkey was also implicated in at list one false-flag chemical attack in Syria that killed hundreds.

    Turkey helped create instability in Syria, and now is using the excuse to invade and steal more Syrian land. (…Not that Turkey is the only state seeking the breakup Syria. Long list: US, UK, France, Israel, KSA, other Gulf states, ……..)

    • Replies: @Talha
  139. @Talha

    Without Russian commanders, SAA has no chance. With Russian commanders, sultan has no chance. It’s as simple as than. Assad knows it. It is possible that even dumb sultan knows it.

  140. poop says:
    @FB

    God Bless the SAA.
    God Bless Russia.
    God Bless Iran.
    God Bless Hezbollah.

    These men have displayed extraordinary courage and will continue to do so. Those that think VVP will abandon the Syrians have spent too much time in the West, or else submitted to too much of its propaganda. Believe it or not, there are others that subscribe to an ethics that does NOT adhere to modern “Western” (or post-modern, to be precise) ethical and political norms. Syria was clearly the line in the sand years ago for the Russians, Iranians, and Hezbollah. They must win, and they will. They have to; it is existential.

    I have agonized over this personally, in great detail, and have come to the conclusion that Iran and Russia are ultimately willing to risk WWIII rather than lose Syria.

    This is not even taking into account the role of the PLA. So far the silent partner, if the chips are down and her allies call, I believe the Chinese People’s Liberation Army will answer and deliver a catastrophic blow to the Empire. They have, not doubt, not forgotten the Opium Wars and the Boxer Rebellion.

    The Empire is best served dissolving itself. But it won’t, unfortunately.

    • Thanks: Commentator Mike, FB
  141. Anon[355] • Disclaimer says:
    @Talha

    Admiral Makarov & Admiral Grigorovich locked & loaded and ready to rock & roll. Also Russia is getting ready to launch intermediate-range land-based missiles from Russian territory. Shit’s about to get real for Turks. Lots of Turks gonna die. LMFAO.

    • Replies: @Talha
  142. Denis says:
    @Talha

    Yeah except for the fact that Turkey has a border and thousands of people are pouring through it and causing instability. You don’t consider that a legitimate concern, which is fine. The one country that really has zero business is the US, whose troops are basically left to guard oil fields according to Trump.

    If Turkey did not want a refugee crisis, they should not have supported a multinational gang of psychopaths in their campaign of murder and mayhem against Syrians. As it is, Turkey has supported that gang, in every conceivable way, including open warfare now. That is one surefire way to create refugees. What’s more, they did this largely in collaboration with the Americans, only splitting with them when their fair-weather allies elected to support the Kurdish forces rather than the Islamist ones.

    • Agree: Commentator Mike, L.K
    • Replies: @Talha
  143. Talha says:
    @Avery

    Turkey helped create instability in Syria

    Agreed. And because it has spilled over into a situation where it is facing unintended consequences, it is acting in its further calculated interests because it is trying to stop the flow of people (and likely make sure Kurdish groups don’t move into the area). People here seem to think I am arguing that the Turkish government is doing this out of the goodness of their hearts – I have said no such thing. It is a calculated cost-benefit move.

    now is using the excuse to invade and steal more Syrian land

    That remains to be seen. Yes Turkey is in there now, whether it plans to stay permanently is pure speculation at this point.

    Not that Turkey is the only state seeking the breakup Syria. Long list: US, UK, France, Israel, KSA, other Gulf states

    Correct – everyone’s got their hands in this pie. Turkey is one with a massive border and feels the costs of getting involved immediately.

    Will Syria stay together 100 or 50 years from now? No clue – maybe, maybe not. Historically, that place has always been the play thing of other more important players in the region; Romans, Byzantines, Abbasids, Seljuks, Ayyubids, Ottomans, Timurids, Safavids, French…you name it.

    Peace.

  144. Talha says:
    @Anon

    Well then I’ll obviously be wrong in my assessment, won’t I? Let’s see if it happens.

    Peace.

  145. Talha says:
    @Denis

    Yes – a stupid mistake for the Turks to have made to become involved in the mess. Granted, in the early stages, I don’t think anybody calculated how much Russia would get involved. Now they are basically trying to mitigate the damage because of the unintended consequences; these consequences seeming to be larger than the costs of not escalating to the degree they have.

    Peace.

  146. @sally

    I agree Sally.

    As usual, the ‘Masters of Discourse’ have led a trail of confusion and deception and very few independent minds seem able to penetrate it.

    In websites such as this it’s typical that people scorn “globalism” and paint it as the worst imaginable threat to human kind. The reverse is true. Human society has outgrown its political organisation, which owes more to the 19th century than the 21st. We have one planet and must manage it as such. Inter alia, as long as plutocrats, the super-rich and transnational corporations are able to skip from one national jurisdiction to another they’ll be able to avoid fair taxation.

    JFK seems to have had an ultimate vision of a peaceful, unified world. See the link below.. “Freedom from War: The United States Program for General And Complete Disarmament in a Peaceful World” (Department Of State Publication 7277, September 1961).

    It’s high time we return to that glorious (and in the long run, inevitable) vision and make global unity something built from the bottom up by popular will and under popular control with strong freedom guarantees – instead of waiting until it’s imposed from the top down of dire necessity.

    https://www.mikenew.com/pub7277.html

    • Agree: FB
  147. KA says:

    Peace or so called peace with Taliban will reshape the region again but mostly to US-Israeli favor . Saudi having agreed with earlier demands of Zio -USA in destabilization of ME ,will now target Pakistan to make it play second fiddle to India . Saudi gets business . Pakistan gets denuclearized and neutered – 2 demands from India and Israel after 911. Taliban possibly facilitate the developments . Taliban might play a spoiler role at the behest of Zio- USA in China and Russia . This goal will comport well with castrating Pakistan as well .
    Turkey is possibly sensing something here . Iran will also come under Israel – US- Saudi – Taliban crosshairs . A world dominated by Zio- US and the rest including Saudi ,India,Pakistan as vassals and manned by Muslim foot soldiers and evangelical ideologues might become reality under Trump, unless Iran Pakistan China Russia Syria and Turkey ( yes Turkey ,otherwise its a toast to Zion) realize what’s in store and coordinate in good faith ,with utmost sincerity and become proactive and stop playing catching up .

  148. @MLK

    What are you gonna do, shit happens.

    From your comment, it would appear to have happened to back up all the way up to your brain. As to what are you gonna do? Have you considered trying using suppositories? It’s worth a try.

  149. FB says: • Website
    @Talha

    The rest of your comments can be summarized as:
    “Just you wait…Putin’s really, really going to give the Turks a huge whupping! Just you wait!”

    Yeah…no, pinhead…my comments certainly don’t add up to such a ridiculous caricature…which is exactly an illustration of your mental deficiency…and the futility of actually trying to discuss with someone of your unbalanced temperament…

    But let’s sum this up here…right now the Syrian Arab Government has already recovered about half of the greater Idlib area held by terrorists…

    So you want to ‘wait and see’…very good…what are you waiting for…for the SAA to pull back as per the Sultan’s ‘sound bubbles’ as president Assad put it so richly…?

    Sure that’s going to happen…

    So you see, even as it stands right now, the M4 and M5 will be in Syrian hands…so your waiting for Godot is about as retarded as the rest of your twaddle here…

    • Agree: Desert Fox
    • Replies: @Talha
    , @Meena
  150. Alfred says:
    @Talha

    Turkey is getting back the mercenaries it sent to Syria in the first place. Of course, Erdogan does not want them in Turkey for obvious reasons. His preferred solution is that they should stay in Syria. Failing that, he would like them exterminated by the Syrian Army. Another possibility is to forward them to Europe.

    Machiavelli wrote a lot about the employment of mercenaries and its disadvantages:

    I wish to demonstrate further the infelicity of these arms. The mercenary captains are either capable men or they are not; if they are, you cannot trust them, because they always aspire to their own greatness, either by oppressing you, who are their master, or others contrary to your intentions; but if the captain is not skilful, you are ruined in the usual way

    How Many Kinds Of Soldiery There Are, And Concerning Mercenaries

    It is in the interests of Europe to support whatever stops the fighting as quickly as possible (Syrian territorial integrity can be negotiated and restored later – not like Syria drew its unnatural straight-line borders in the first place) and allows them to start repatriating refugees.

    Nonsense. It is in the interests of Europe that this vermin should be exterminated.

  151. @MLK

    Cuba has been providing much needed medical care and supplies to South American nations such as Venezuela, Brazil and others for decades. Only in your upside-down, inside-out world is that considered bad news.

    I’m guessing that you eat by shoving your food up your arse because you certainly have nothing but shit coming out of your mouth.

    • LOL: FB
    • Replies: @AnonFromTN
  152. @Syd Walker

    I just have to get my hands on a pair of those rose coloured glasses that you have. Are they on eBay by any chance? A link would be great. Thanks in anticipation.

    A lot of what you’ve written could just as easily have come from the mouth of David Rockefeller.

  153. @sally

    I thought globalists shy away from this site. Your contention is theoretically correct but practically it will replace the tyranny of the handlers of the nation state with the tyranny of the one world government. Tyrants are all bad but the worst tyrant is the one that has no competition.

  154. Antares says:
    @Antares

    Some historic backgrounds on that “worthless strip”: https://alethonews.com/2020/02/29/the-stolen-province-why-turkey-was-given-a-corner-of-syria-by-france-80-years-ago/

    The struggle over that part of land is not quite new. It was allocated to Syria by France until in 1939 when it was allocated to Turkey after a referendum was held. Turkey is suspected to have bussed in swarms of Turks before that referendum took place.

    A quote from the article (originally on Sputnik):

    ​Strategically this little corner of the Levant – known as Liwa Iskanderoun to the Syrians – is vitally important to the Turkish state.

    And as a reminder: what is geopolitics without geography? A geopolitician should never talk condescendingly about territory.

  155. Alfred says:
    @sally

    the nation state system that needs to be eliminated

    With the Hebrews ruling us all? LOL 🙂

    Forget it my dear, the plans of your superiors are falling apart. We are going back to a much less globalised world. The USA is going to break up into its constituent parts. Those who are producing real wealth are going to regain control. We are going ethnic once again.

    Heavens! Last week, the hospital workers in the Lvov (West Ukraine) almost rioted when a plane from China was suspected to be coming their way. They only calmed down when the plane landed near Poltava – in the east of that fake country. YouTube took down the videos.

    Lvov hospital staff sing Ukrainian anthem on finding out returnee Ukrainian Corona patients aren’t going to be coming to their establishment.

  156. @Syd Walker

    Very Trotskyite of you, Syd. The International, right?

  157. @MLK

    It’s not deflection, but comparison: there is out in the open evidence of US thievery with respect to Venezuela – demonstrate the same for Russia or Cuba.

    If you can’t, be quiet.

    • Replies: @MLK
  158. @Syd Walker

    There is some truth in what you say, but would you water your broccoli to the same level you water your lemons?!

    The human race is still differentiated, although whether purposefully or accidentally, we move towards ‘The Great Browning’.. When we are all similar (we don’t need black or white skin – we have tech to deal with external influence now), your argument will be great, but right now, it is weakish.

    ‘Popular will’, for example, has shown that Brits don’t want to be in one polity with even the French, let alone the Japanese! Syrians don’t want to be part of Turkey, Belorussians don’t want to be part of Russia (chuckles – literally the same genetics) etc etc..

    And if you disagree with the people’s choice? Well, then you must be a hypocrite and an autocrat!

    Would a one world bureaucracy change this? Unlikely – everyone will want their own to run it, so everyone will be unhappy in the end.

    The long run is not the short run – in the short run, societies need to figure out the balance between the economy of needs (socialism), and the economy of wants (capitalism). Once that is done, sure – you can merge Ghana with Qatar, because the socialist element (needs) will be equally provided for in both. But this seems to be far far away sadly.

  159. Robjil says:
    @Talha

    There would be no “refugees” in Turkey, if the support for the US/Israeli terrorists ended. The “refugees” would go home to Syria.

    Turkey is prolonging the US/Israeli terror on Syria.

    Perhaps there is a bit of truth about Donmehs still ruling Turkey.

    • Agree: Desert Fox
    • Replies: @Talha
  160. Talha says:
    @FB

    unbalanced temperament…

    Yeah…’K.

    what are you waiting for…for the SAA to pull back

    No, we’re waiting for Russia to pound the Turks into the ground…I thought that’s what we were discussing. If you read the chatter on the proper Twitter accounts, it seems that the SAA is not green lighting any offensives for the moment because of how badly they were just hit. Now that may change, but we’ll see because all of that depends on whether or not Russia is willing to go full monty on supporting them from the air and eliminating Turkish artillery and other assets. They might, but I’m not as certain as you seem to be. Guess we’ll see.

    the M4 and M5 will be in Syrian hands

    I’m pretty sure that will be the eventual outcome. Under what timeline and under what circumstances that transfer occurs…I’m not so sure about.

    Peace.

    • Replies: @Kevin Grimes
    , @FB
  161. Talha says:
    @Robjil

    Turkey is prolonging the US/Israeli terror on Syria.

    Well, I won’t argue that it is certainly in the interests of Israel that Syria’s military (and especially command structure) get degraded by any means necessary. Little doubt about that.

    As I said before, Turkish involvement from the get go was a fairly stupid move.

    Peace.

  162. Smith says:

    SU-24 being shot down in Syria right now.

    FB better get the fuck in here and explain this now.

  163. @Turk 152

    I beg to differ with you because I believe that policy comes not from the Catholics, i.e. the Vatican, but the protestants with Germany in the lead and the British right behind her.

    Germany has had a long learning curve with the Turks, from alliances in wars to the largest Turkish diaspora living in the middle of Europe. Turks are better in terms of outward behavior than the Arabs and Pakis etc but their religious zeal is no less fervent then their swarthy coreligionists and the very last thing that homosexuality accepting and guilt ridden country, due to daily inculcation by the Zionist, wants is a restive section of citizens who could help put breaks on the “progressive” ideas.

    Of course, if the Turks of Atatürk era had been so successful in transforming the society that no man like Erdoğan could ever get hold of power, showing true colors of a latent fanatical mindset, then there was an infinitesimal chance of Turkey becoming a part of the European Union. Alas, it’s all over!

  164. Meena says:
    @FB

    Russia ’s plan is coordinated out of any other nations including Syria mostly to Israel. It will be Israel that shapes success or failure of this endeavor.

    • Replies: @Talha
  165. MLK says:
    @Ilya G Poimandres

    As I told the other character, I’m not getting in the weeds with you middle schoolers over the glories of Venezuelan or Cuban socialism.

    POTUS Trump has brilliantly left Russia and China on the hook, maintaining basket-case Venezuela on very expensive life-support. China is now owed $60B and counting; Russia something like $20B last I checked. All Venezuela can do is pay up via oil exports, when it desperately needs cash.

    But by all means keep up your shouting about how lucky Venezuelans are to have Cuba’s intelligence services keeping the bus driver in power, because they send some nurses and doctors as well to treat the medicine starved populace with warm tea and crackers.

  166. Talha says:
    @Meena

    One of the major guarantors that Israel’s interests in Syria are looked after is Russia’s full control of Syrian airspace and defenses. Russian leadership is far closer to Israel than Turkey’s which should be obvious to anyone paying attention:
    “Putin Pardons Israeli Held in Russia for Drug Charges as Netanyahu Departs for Moscow… Netanyahu thanked his ‘friend, President Putin, for granting Naama Issachar a pardon. I look forward to our meeting tomorrow, in which we’ll discuss the Deal of the Century and other regional developments.’”
    https://www.haaretz.com/amp/israel-news/.premium-putin-pardons-israeli-held-in-russia-for-drug-charges-1.8468886

    That may change and we’ll eventually see Turkish presidents wearing kippahs and paying homage at the Wailing Wall to catch up with successive Russian ones. Again, not holding my breath though.https://s1.ibtimes.com/sites/www.ibtimes.com/files/styles/embed/public/2020/01/30/russian-president-vladimir-putin-and-israeli-prime-minister.jpg
    Peace.

    • Replies: @Robjil
  167. @Talha

    Now that may change, but we’ll see because all of that depends on whether or not Russia is willing to go full monty on supporting them from the air and eliminating Turkish artillery and other assets. They might, but I’m not as certain as you seem to be. Guess we’ll see.

    Russia has the option to escalate, big time, and the General Staff in Moscow is pushing for this. But Putin is one of the greatest statesmen of our time and will do everything to avoid this. Makes zero sense for either side to go this route. No one wins* except those pushing for it (USrael). My hope is Tayyip will see this and de-escalate.

    *Turkey and Turks have already engendered A LOT of hatred for their recent stuntto flood Europe with refugees. Just look at the comments on Steve Sailer’s blog.

    • Replies: @Talha
  168. Talha says:
    @Kevin Grimes

    But Putin is one of the greatest statesmen of our time and will do everything to avoid this.

    I totally agree here, Putin is far more calculating than to push for a full war with Turkey for a relatively small corridor in a pocket of Syria. They already had a deal that Turkey would start disarming militias and SAA would not attack further into the territory. Russia has the ability to create the conditions to bring both sides to that same agreement again. If Turkey started to break out of that area and acquire more territory in Syria, that calculation could certainly change. Right now even Iran is out of commission for the moment if you listen to what has happened due to the outbreak of the coronavirus in that country – they totally dropped the ball on containment.

    Turkey and Turks have already engendered A LOT of hatred for their recent stuntto flood Europe with refugees.

    No doubt, it was meant to force NATO to action by reminding it of consequences. If people really want to hate on someone, it should be Bush II and the European leadership that went along with him in spite of everyone in the region that warned that the Iraq invasion would lead to a massive disaster that would generate unintended chaos in the wider region.

    I believe Amr Moussa has said “the gates of hell” would be open…so there you go. If you want some people to be lined up against the wall in front of a firing squad, they’re still walking around with suits and ties in the West.

    And this guy with his “guarantee” of “positive reverberations”:

    Peace.

  169. Robjil says:
    @Talha

    Erdogan is the real kippa wearer.

    He wears US/Israeli terrorists in his head by supporting them in Syria since 2011.

    Meanwhile in Russia Chabad is not having the time of its life in Russia as our “free” Zion press promotes when they cast down the Russia Russia hysteria for everything else.

    The big 6 is not jail bait in Russia like it is in “frei” Germany of today.

    https://russia-insider.com/en/russian-holocaust-denier-wins-damages-persecution-suit-while-german-truth-tellers-rot-jail/ri28216

    There is consternation that the outcome of high court litigation in Russia has supported the right of holocaust critics and investigators (holocaust deniers) the right to publish their findings and beliefs. Investigation of the holocaust narrative is illegal in much of Europe.

    On January 21, the Leninsky District Court of Perm decided to award Perm civil activist Roman Yushkov 50 thousand rubles in compensation for non-pecuniary damage for his being persecuted in connection with his right to publicly claim that the holocaust is a scam sponsored by politicians dependent upon Jewish patronage.

    Many Chabad cells have been expelled from Russia.

    https://russia-insider.com/en/history/holohoax-denial-not-illegal-russia-contrary-many-news-reports/ri27711

    Recently, the Jewish newspaper Kursor says the courts have expelled Chabad cells due to their foreign funding and extremist ideology. Russian laws target extremist groups that receive the majority of their funding from abroad. This has unsurprisingly earned the ire of the US State Department.

    More about Yushov’s trial, Chabad tried to get him convicted. It did not work. Chabad of Russia tried to get an underground complex. It was voted down by the Russians.

    During the trial itself, Yushkov said: “There are hundreds of thousands of publications in the Russian-language internet denying the myth of the Jewish Holocaust. . . with no problem. I was chosen for the first demonstration of [this law] in Russia because I fought Chabad to the point of blood.” The Jewish Religious Society of Perm, considered an opponent of Chabad, refused to join in the protests, but they also distanced themselves from the extremism of the sect. They’ve stated that they believe the proposed synagogue would be an “underground, subversive” headquarters rather than a religious center. Chabad’s refusal to explain what the land will be used for has spurred further speculation. The Jewish sect was enraged when Yushkov was successful. The land deal was voted down due to substantial protests he helped organize.

    Here is about some of the Chabad rabbis that have been expelled from Russia.
    https://www.jpost.com/Diaspora/US-born-rabbi-called-extremist-kicked-out-of-Russia-540444

    MOSCOW — For the eighth time this past decade, Russian authorities told a foreign Chabad rabbi living in Russia to leave the country.
    Josef Marozof, a New York-born rabbi who began working 12 years ago for Chabad in the city of Ulyanovsk 400 miles east of Moscow, was ordered earlier this week to leave because the FSB security service said he had been involved in unspecified “extremist behavior.”

    https://www.jpost.com/Diaspora/US-born-rabbi-called-extremist-kicked-out-of-Russia-540444

    An Israeli-born rabbi serving as the chief rabbi for the Jewish community in Siberia is facing deportation, after apparently being accused of espionage.

    Rabbi Asher Krichevsky, a Chabad emissary in Omsk and chief rabbi of the Siberian Jewish community, has faced deportation attempts by local authorities for years amid accusations he poses a threat to “Russia’s constitutional order”.

    https://www.haaretz.com/world-news/europe/russia-deports-israeli-rabbi-second-deportation-of-chabad-rabbi-in-2017-1.5474750

    This week, a Moscow district court ordered Yosef Khersonsky, an Israeli who heads one of the capital’s communities, to leave the Russian Federation in connection with his “setting up without permission a for-profit foreign entity,” the RIA Novosti news agency reported. The court did not specify the nature of the entity.

    • Replies: @Talha
  170. FB says: • Website
    @Talha

    No, we’re waiting for Russia to pound the Turks into the ground…I thought that’s what we were discussing.

    Sure T-boy…the ‘discussion’ was certainly not that narrowly focused…the issue here is about Syria regaining its rightful Idlib territory, that’s what it’s about…it’s like pretending Guernica was about Picasso…once again your grade-school disingenuousness is quite transparent…

    But it’s certainly clear which side you’re on…firmly in the camp of the headchoppers…

    You’ve been crowing about the recent terrorist and Turkish gains at full throat…even on other threads that have nothing to do with Syria…

    For instance this comment on a thread about Bernie Sanders [!]…

    Syria has lost hundreds of men, many many tanks, howitzers and even SAM batteries.

    Which is good for Europe; the Syrian push into that area resulted in thousands of displaced refugees headed to where…?

    If Turkey can end the situation by basically destroying a tenth of the Syrian military in precision strikes, it’ll be well worth it for everyone…

    Very interesting take on Syria…so Syrian troops need to be decimated [that’s exactly what ten percent means]…and Muslim Turkey is the knight in shining armor here, as they attempt to rescue the worst terrorist scum on earth and their illegitimate hold on Syrian territory…

    And you, a Sunni Fanatic about once removed from outright headchopper ideology, apparently, are only concerned about Europe…?

    LOL…sure thing T-boy…we all here just fell off the back of the turnip cart before landing on UNZ…

    Btw…this morning you have much more to celebrate…it seems the terrorists [or Turks] have downed two Syrian warplanes over Idlib [Syria’s official news agency acknowledges…]

    Hopefully, there will be video soon, so you can loop the footage while screaming Allahu Akbar…

    At the same time the terrorists have made another successful push into the newly liberated area south of the M4 and have retaken some territory there…more cause for celebration among your ‘people’…

    But before you get too carried away [probably too late, seeing your lusty crowing far and wide about the recent terrorist gains]…let’s put the situation into perspective…

    These recent setbacks have been the very first of this Idlib campaign, which kicked off in December…the SAA captured nearly half the headchopper territory with hardly a hiccup…now the Turks have illegally sent a massive amount of men and firepower into Syria…so it’s not surprising that they should rack up a couple of wins…

    Mostly this recent damage to the SAA is due to long range Turkish artillery, which is a signficant new factor…but like any armed conflict, this new order of battle will be carefully taken into account and new tactics implemented…the Russian commanders leading the SAA operation are very capable indeed, but it does take time to sort out the new plan…so I expect this Turkish escalation to be effectively dealt with…

    But this is far from over…these recent SAA setbacks are certainly not as catastrophic as you would like to make them out to be…also worth noting is that Iranian and Hezbollah blood has also been spilled in the Turkish attacks…

    Which brings us right back to the Russians…and your laughable contention that it’s all about the Russians ‘pounding’ the Turks…

    So let’s talk a little more seriously about that [for the benefit of folks here who are not so simple minded as you make them out to be]…the Russians have been directing the entire Idlib offensive from day one, and these commanders’ skill is the main reason for the SAA success so far…

    Turkey has now escalated with its very significant incursion into Syrian territory and is fighting the Syrian army DIRECTLY for the first time in this conflict…

    The SAA isn’t going to just pack up and back down in the face of what is clearly an act of aggression, [as Sunni extremists like yourself are dreaming]…

    The Russian parry will be calculated first and foremost to win on the ground…this does not require a direct Russian ‘pounding’ of pissant Turkish forces…the Russian warships and aircraft are not going to target Turkish personnel in Syria [much less Turkish territory] unless they are first attacked…

    This is the Russian way…they are sticklers for international rules…the Turks have badly overstepped these boundaries and this will be taken up at the UN Security Council and will be part of the ‘information war’…which is of course important…

    Here is the most likely response to the Turkish escalation…the SAA will be provided with whatever military-technical assistance is required to send the Turks packing back across the border…in fact I suspect this Turkish incursion has been long anticipated and thoroughly war-gamed by the competent Russian general staff in Moscow…the SAA does appear to have been caught a little flat-footed here, but again, this thrust and parry is to be expected…

    There is also the issue of coordinating with the Iranian and Hezb forces…both of which will be given the same kind of assistance as the SAA in this fight…[I suspect that this is the most difficult aspect of the entire equation, since the Iranians are a little ‘difficult’ to work with, as the Syrian officer corps will tell you also…]

    So I hope that clears up your infantile arithmetic about Russians ‘pounding’ Turkey…really you have put yourself on the same level as the most ridiculous pipsqueaks here who have also been squawking such childish nonsense…well played T-boy…

    Again I have to repeat for clarity what I have been saying all along…the Russians are prepared to escalate ALL THE WAY…up to and including an armed confrontation with Nato…but it is important to understand the mechanics of escalation…right now, we are far from that ultimate scenario…we are merely at the point analogous to where Russia flew in several S300 battalions into Syria, after the downing of the Russian spyplane back in 2018…

    A similar injection of capability into the SAA to handle the Turks’ pissant incursion will now play out…that is the first step…if the Sultan decides to target Russian forces directly, then the response will be of a much different character…

    Now since I’m here, I noticed another commenter is wondering about those Syrian warplanes that were downed this morning…two Russian-made Su24s…which are a ground attack jet and the same type that Turkey shot down back in 2015…

    Now we don’t have much info at this point other than the SANA report that says the crews of both aircraft ejected safely into government territory…

    What type of missile brought the airplanes down…?

    It could be manpads, which the Turks have been firing against Russian and Syrian aircraft lately [without success]… but could also be a more sophisticated surface to air missile system…it’s known that Turkey deployed its Raytheon I-Hawk SAMs on the Turkish border near Idlib several weeks ago…

    These are obviously a much more capable weapon than manpads and can reach over 65,000 feet high, and with a range of up to 50 km…so they would be capable of hitting aircraft over much of the Idlib territory…

    What is not known at this point is whether the Turks have actually deployed these inside terrorist held Syrian territory…I expect we will soon find out…

    I definitely suspect the latter, since this type of rocket is much more deadly at close range…as the crew of the targeted aircraft would have far less time to react…at very close range of a kilometer or two, any airplane would be a sitting duck…

    The big difference between a manpad is that the SAM is radar guided, while manpads use infrared seekers that home in on the jet’s hot engine exhaust and can be defeated by use of decoy heat flares and maneuvering…a radar missile shot, especially from close range, is going to be much more difficult to elude…

    Nonetheless, the important thing is that the aircrews of both aircraft appear to be unharmed…aircraft can be replaced, but lives cannot…

    • Replies: @Poiuytrewq
    , @Talha
  171. @FB

    Why don’t you simply admit that you were wrong about Turkish air ops?

  172. JamesinNM says:

    Russia should take out terrorist Erdogan with drone strike.

    • Replies: @Kevin Grimes
  173. JamesinNM says:
    @Republic

    Pray for the destruction of all of Turkey.

  174. Talha says:
    @Robjil

    Well, when Chabad starts operating in Turkey even at a fraction of the level that they do in Russia, let me know. Also let me know when a Turkish president is following Netanyahu around on a tour of the Museum of Tolerance in Ankara like they have one in Moscow:

    Peace.

    • Replies: @Robjil
  175. FB says: • Website

    Breaking news from the Syria front…

    Syrian Forces Counter-Attack Near Saraqib As Air War Heats Up Over Idlib

    Syrian forces supported by Hezb and Russian and Syrian warplanes have taken a number of villages near Saraqib and the eastern part of the city itself…

    Also more info trickling in about the downed Syrian Sukhois…it seems the two aircraft were shot down by air to air missiles fired from Turkish F16 fighters that intruded into Syrian airspace earlier this morning, according to Russian media…

    It should be noted that the Su24 is NOT a fighter jet and does not carry air to air missiles…it is strictly a ground attack jet [small bomber]…even its onboard Gatling-gun type cannon is designed for ground pounding and not air to air engagements…

    Now clearly this means that the Syrian aircraft were flying WITHOUT fighter escort…this will of course be rectified going forward…but it does illustrate the CONFIDENCE with which Syrian aircrews have been operating under in the skies over Idlib…it means that Syrian and allied control of the skies is very solid…you do not send unescorted ground attack aircraft into contested airspace…

    This was an opportunistic cheap shot by the Turks that is reminiscent of the Russian Su24 downing in 2015…so we can assume that this type of sucker punch is not likely going to be repeated…

    Syria has announced officially the closing of Syrian airspace over Idlib…this will of course be enforced by both Russian and Syrian S400s and S300s [and other SAM systems] as well as by Russian fighters…not much cause to worry about the Turks contesting this airspace…

    Now as for the Turkish drones, they are clearly being launched from inside Idlib and were obviously brought in from Turkey in those massive convoys…small drones are mostly a nuisance and not a game-changer…they DID NOT take out any Syrian Pantsirs as the Turks claim…those Turkish videos are clearly fake, showing a UAE Pantsir being hit in Libya [the UAE Pantsirs use the German MAN chassis vs the Russian Kamaz, so they are easily identified…]

    Drones are actually difficult to deal with precisely because of their small size…they simply have a very small radar signature, so are difficult to pick up by air defense crews…now that these drones are in Syria, they will simply need to be popped one by one as they appear…today the Syrians are reporting the downing of six of these UAVs…

    I expect we will have more results of the SAA counter-offensive around Saraqib in the next 24 hours…let’s see what our esteemed Sunni extremists here have to say…over to you T-boy…

    • Replies: @Showmethereal
  176. Meena says:

    I have not seen condemnation of Israeli air strikes by Russian with same passion intensity and urgency as we have seen agents Turkey . I don’t agree with Turkey’s aggression but it least it can say that the Kurds are a problem . Syria is not trying to wrest Golan or is not liberating the Druze
    Israel has no ground to get involved. Also Russia has not condemned Israeli deal with terrorist in Golan nor with ISIS-Turkey- oil trade .

    This war in Syria has degenerated into Russian Cath 22 and Russia is entirely blameworthy for allowing this to happen . Turkey is in same situation for allowing itself to be enticed by prospect t quick territorial gain and for getting duped by USA .

    • Replies: @Milton
  177. Talha says:
    @FB

    firmly in the camp of the headchoppers…

    Uh no – my record is pretty clear on calling for the destruction of Daesh and al-Qaeda. Your insistence on the contrary is fine, again I don’t care to convince you otherwise. You keep thinking that I am in full support of everything Turkey is doing – I have never claimed to be. I am outlining the political calculations involved.

    If Turkey can end the situation by basically destroying a tenth of the Syrian military in precision strikes, it’ll be well worth it for everyone…

    Correct – that is the same calculation that I believe is running in Putin’s head right now and why he is having Russian forces stand down. Degrading of Syria’s forces isn’t necessarily a big deal – and maybe he and Netanyahu can have a laugh about it over some vodka in their next meeting. He let’s the Turks take their corridor, SAA has to come to the table, he can then easily get the Turks to the table by letting them know he stood down, but NOW it has to end and NOW Turkey has to comply with disarmament of militias. He becomes the architect for the final resolution which includes an eventual renegotiation of Syrian sovereignty on a timeline and Europe gives him the most credit for stopping the refugee flow…it’s brilliant actually and no Russians die…only Muslims on both sides. He is a very smart man – expected of an ex-intelligence officer.

    …the Russians are prepared to escalate ALL THE WAY…up to and including an armed confrontation with Nato

    If you say so. Like I said, this may well be the case (which would be as inane as the US going to war with China for Brunei’s territorial int or something), but I’m not really seeing any signs in this direction. And I’m 100% open to the possibility that I’m completely off the mark in everything and that within weeks we will see Turkish columns scrambling across the border back to Turkey.

    Peace.

    • Replies: @FB
  178. @JamesinNM

    Russia should take out terrorist Erdogan with drone strike.

    No. There will be peace.

    Russia could take out the multiple launcher rocket systems in Hatay Province with impunity and NATO would be loath to invoke Article Five. Turkey should realize this. They’ve gotten their pound of flesh and now let it go. This whole development is insane and equivalent to two bald men fighting over a comb. Russia and Turkey are friends and their relationship orders of magnitude more important than this dust up. I hope and expect for cooler and rational heads to prevail on both sides.

    • Agree: Talha
  179. Robjil says:
    @Talha

    Words are nothing.

    Actions are something.

    Turkey does actions for Israel.

    Russia just does words.

    I rather have words than actions.

    Actions are really hurting the people of the Middle East.

    Tell me when Turkey will stop acting for Israeli interests.

    Barbara Lerner Specter loves Turkey for this reason. She hates the Palestinians and the Armenians.

    https://www.tc-america.org/files/news/pdf/blerner_nro.pdf

    The bottom line here is that in actual historical fact, Turks were not like Nazis; Armenians were not like Jews; and attempts to convince Americans that they were are propaganda, not history. The Armenian tragedy was real and terrible, but it was not the only terrible tragedy in Turkey in 1915 and it wasn’t genocide; it was that in the midst of a wider war that brought death and destruction to millions on all sides, nationalist Armenians fought a war to claim a piece of Turkey for a country of their own, and lost. Later, they got a state of their own, but its development has been stunted from that day to this by high levels of poverty, corruption and political violence. If Armenians would accept their share of responsibility for the tragedies of 1915, trade with their increasingly prosperous Turkish neighbors could do much to alleviate that poverty. Some in Armenia have long wanted to do that, but most government leaders — and the powerful Armenian diaspora community those leaders rely on — have always insisted, instead, on demonizing Turks and whitewashing all Armenian actions in World War I. And, although they proved incompetent at governing, they achieved great success as propagandists. In this, Armenians are very similar to Palestinians; very different from both Jews and Turks.

    • Replies: @Desert Fox
    , @Talha
  180. @Robjil

    Agree, Erdogan might as well be a zionist for that is how he operates and Ankara has been a major control point for supplying AL CIADA and all its offshoots, a regular Operation Gladio ran by NATO in Turkey.

    • Agree: Robjil
  181. FB says: • Website
    @Talha

    …that is the same calculation that I believe is running in Putin’s head right now and why he is having Russian forces stand down.

    Excuse me PINHEAD…do you even know the meaning of the term ‘stand down’…?

    Where exactly is Russia ‘standing down’ in Syria…?

    The fact that Russia is not [yet] directly attacking Turkish troops in Syria does not equal ‘standing down’…[although those thirty or whatever Turks killed by alleged ‘Syrian’ aircraft may have been Russia instead]…

    Your whole ridiculous scenario about the Turks ‘ending this’ is fucking insane…[sure and next time I see Iron Mike Tyson I’m going to tell him to ‘step aside’ or I will have to ‘end’ it…LOL]

    Do you even realize what a laughable crock you are…?

    This is why you Muslim fanatics will never amount to anything…you simply cannot control your own desires…in this case the desire to invert reality in order to convince yourselves that your adversaries [Russia, in this case] are much diminished to what they really are…

    But of course these foolish, self-coddling impulses are always shattered on the rough rocks of reality…and you wake up and find yourself in perpetual servitude…since, as The Great Thinker figured out two thousand years ago, some men are destined for the yoke of slavery because their own mind is firstly enslaved by their own desires…see Politics, Book One, Part Five…

    PS…thanks for chipping in with the Netanyahoo reference…you are more determined than ever to show yourself to be a poofter with absolutely nothing to say, since the Putin-Netanyahu meme is the exclusive province of unhinged goofballs and nobody else…

    And btw…I’m putting you in the same bin as the ridiculous twerp A123, who also persists in signing off his crapola with ‘Peace’…[in fact after reading your crap, I actually have new appreciation for A23’s honest delusion, as opposed to your tortured fancy footwork, which doesn’t actually fool anybody here…except yourself…]

    Thanks for making your tiny stature evident…I had not been familiar with your ‘work’ before…a real eye opener, for sure…

    Piece…

    • Replies: @Talha
  182. Milton says:
    @Meena

    The War in Syria started in 2012 when Obama and Team Neocon decided to arm and support an assortment of mercenaries, mujahideen and violent prisoners (newly escaped from prisons in Libya, Egypt and Iraq following Obama’s Arab “Spring”), who started calling themselves the “Syrian Rebels” being neither Syrian nor rebelling, and who took the road to Damascus (but not to convert). 2012 was when Team Neocon’s proxy war against Syria really turned hot, but I believe it started two years earlier, in Paris, when the first lady of Syria essentially told (in nice words) a room full of Neocons to piss off and that Syria was not for sale and not up for grabs like Iraq and Libya:

    • Replies: @Showmethereal
  183. Talha says:
    @FB

    Ok…so a whole bunch of insults followed by really nothing of substance.

    I never said Russia is diminished, rather it is taking a conscious decision to let Turkey eliminate quite a bit of SAA men and equipment in order to take control of that region.

    Like I said, we’ll see how this plays out in the next few days/weeks.

    Feel free to ignore me if my presence here since it bothers you so much. No loss to me really and you’ve basically outlined how much I’m outclassed by you and your arguments anyway so everyone here probably already assumes it’ll work out just like you’ve predicted. And then I will be very embarrassed.

    Peace.

    • Troll: L.K
    • Replies: @FB
  184. @NoseytheDuke

    Yea, those pesky dictators, like Castro in Latin America and Africa, or Soviet Union in Afghanistan, always send teachers and doctors. This is certainly doing huge harm. In contrast, true democrats, the Empire and its sidekicks, send democracy on people’s heads, in packets of 500 kg or 1,000 kg TNT equivalent. Isn’t democracy glorious?

    • Thanks: Nonny Mouse
  185. Talha says:
    @Robjil

    Uh hunh…
    “Russia nixed arms sales to Israel’s enemies at its request, PM’s adviser says… Netanyahu has cultivated close ties to Putin, flying frequently to meet with him to discuss regional developments. This July, in a move targeting Israeli-Russian voters ahead of the repeat elections in September, Netanyahu’s Likud party hung a massive picture of the prime minister with Putin on its headquarters in Tel Aviv.”
    https://www.timesofisrael.com/russia-nixed-arms-sales-to-israels-enemies-at-its-request-pms-adviser-says/

    Peace.

    • Replies: @Robjil
  186. FB says: • Website
    @Talha

    Wow…

    Russia…is taking a conscious decision to let Turkey eliminate quite a bit of SAA men and equipment in order to take control of that region.

    I have nothing to add to this…your words speak for themselves…let the readers here decide how much actual reality is contained therein…

    On a previous note…about Russia ‘standing down’…new reports that Russian warplanes are pounding the hell out of the Turkish-backed scum around Saraqib and elsewhere…

    I guess Putin didn’t get T-boy’s ‘memo’ about ‘stepping aside’, ‘standing down’ and letting Turkey ‘finish off’ the SAA…go figure…

    • Replies: @Talha
    , @Anonymous
  187. Meena says:

    This is the world we are then living !
    Saudi , Bahrain , UAE and even Qatar are ingratiating
    themselves openly with Israel
    Libyan rebel’s did
    Sisi does .
    Putin , Greece Britain and
    Hungary’s right wingnut child do it .
    Rest of the 5 Eyes have been doing it for decades . India does . So are now Brazil , Colombia,Uruguay, Guatemala, Honduras and

    Was it this that what Ben Guiron referring to when he told of the future role and historical importance of Jerusalem as the seat of future world government?

  188. @Johnny Smoggins

    Events suggest that you’re right. I’d add this: the Catholic Church has kept up a steady drumbeat to shame white European countries into letting millions of aggressive Muslims settle in the former Christendom. So we can conclude that, for whatever reason, the Catholic Church leaders either want Europe to succumb to Islam or at least don’t care whether it does.

    There will be one enjoyable part of the ongoing process of Islamization, though more in the nature of Schadenfreude and just desserts. Within three generations, we can watch as the new Islamist majority of Italy drags the pope and the other faggots in the Vatican out of their silky sheets and into the street to be punished for their perversion.

    • Replies: @Barr
  189. Talha says:
    @FB

    Looks to me like Russia will keep killing off proxies and avoiding Turkish positions. This seems to be the game both Turkey and Russia are playing; militant proxies will get killed and SAA will also get killed – that seems to be what the preferred deal looks like – and then everyone will come to the table after these guys are exhausted.

    Again, we’ll have to wait and see as things develop.

    Peace.

  190. A Saker thread about Syria dominated by FB. Two people that haven’t learned alcohol and blogging don’t mix. What could go wrong?

    • Agree: bluedog
    • Replies: @Parbes
  191. @AnonFromTN

    You’re quite right. I keep trying to talk to other Americans about the need to reduce and then end our fed gov’s borrowing — in large part by stopping our aggressive wars and occupations and simply not spending some of those hundreds of billions each year.

    I also keep trying to tell them that once the dollar loses even some of its reserve-currency status, the dollar will decline substantially against other currencies.

    That spells much higher prices for the frightening proportion of our goods that we have to import, including goods and resources with important military & medical applications.

    Some people here are waking up, becoming less arrogant, more realistic about our real productive economy, the risk to our currency and standard of living, the struggle of a large swath of Americans to keep up with housing and medical costs, how overrated our military is vis-a-vis Russia and China, how our social trust and cohesion is declining under waves of less compatible / less similar peoples, etc.

    But not enough of them.

    • Agree: Showmethereal
    • Replies: @AnonFromTN
  192. Barr says:
    @RadicalCenter

    “ Catholic Church has kept up a steady drumbeat to shame white European countries into letting millions of aggressive”
    Catholic Church was ineffective in stopping wars in ME
    No surprise , that it is ineffective against the invasion of another kind – mass immigration .

    Enjoy .

    • Replies: @RadicalCenter
  193. Parbes says:
    @Johnny Rico

    Shut up and get lost you Erdogan and Al Qaida-loving Jewish neocon twit. You bastards are the biggest supporters of Islamic terrorism. What the hell are YOU doing on Saker’s thread, if you hate him so much? How much are you getting paid to troll this blog?

    • Replies: @Johnny Rico
  194. Anonymous[171] • Disclaimer says:
    @FB

    You’re right. Talha’s lost it. His posts in the thread have gradually devolved from failing to be objective straight into embarrassing fantasies and childishly lame shilling.

    Since 2015 Russia has been rolling back Israel’s plans for Syria in a literal war. Everyone on this site knows this, but Talha’s brain believes that he can convince us that the opposite is true.

    How? Well, if he can show us a few photos of Putin standing next to Jews it’s all over. A picture is worth a thousand words, they say.

    lol

  195. FB says: • Website

    More info on the developing situation in Idlib…Russian Air Force launches wide-scale attack across Idlib to stop militant advance…

    So what about the severe pounding that the SAA [and Iranian and Hezb allies] took at the hands of Turkish drones in recent days…?

    Did Russia actually suspend air operations for some time, after that attack two days ago on the Turkish soldiers [which is now acknowledged to have been almost certainly carried out by Russian warplanes]…?

    And did the resulting lack of Russian air cover allow the Turkish drones to inflict the damage they subsequently did…?

    Let’s first note that fighter jets are the best way to intercept and take down these slow flying small propeller-driven drones…a fighter patrol will quickly identify and take out these UAVs that ground-based air defenses may not see [due to the small size of the drones]…

    So it is possible that Russian aircraft were possibly grounded at the time that those drone strikes hit the SAA…today EJ Magnier weighed in with a lot of information from unnamed ‘sources’ that allegedly spells out Putin’s direct order to cease Russian airstrikes, after the magnitude of the Turkish losses became known…

    Russia ceased air support for Syria and its allies demanded from Russia an explanation for the lack of coordination of its unilateral stoppage of air support, allowing the Turkish drones to kill so many Syrian Army and allied forces. What happened, why, and what will be the consequences?

    According to the sources, Russia was surprised by the number of Turkish soldiers killed and declared a unilateral ceasefire to calm down the front and de-escalate. Moscow ordered its military operational room in Syria to stop the military push and halt the attack on rural Idlib.

    Let’s stop and take note here…the official story so far is that it was Syrian jets that hit the Turkish convoy…the unofficial story here is that it was really Russian jets that hit the Turks, supposedly not ‘knowing’ that it was actually Turkish soldiers [since Turkey failed to inform Russia of its positions…]

    My opinion is that neither of these is true…there is no chance whatsoever that, with all of its precision aerial surveillance of the entire Idlib area, which has been tracking the Turkish incursion in great detail, that Russian pilots somehow didn’t know…

    Clearly this bombardment was a ‘Turkish slap’ to Erdogan…a warning he does not seem inclined to heed…

    Also quite believable is that Putin did in fact order the brief pause as part of the same shot across the bow tactic…

    Now Magnier has proven to me to have quite credible sources…but he is a journalist, not a military man…I think he draws some bad conclusions here, especially the amount of consideration he gives to a possible conflagration with Nato…

    The reason I say this is because the Russian military command is quite well aware of the possibility of a major east-west confrontation that would come to actual blows…for the first time since the superpower conflict set in post world war two…

    Again, people may not realize how things work in the military command…every possible scenario is considered as live and on the table…these men must simply be always prepared for ANY eventuality…

    Now that doesn’t mean this kind of momentous conflict is something the commanders on either side are wishing for…quite the opposite…both sides know they cannot win without paying a very heavy price…and perhaps end up not winning at all…that too is an eventuality that is always taken into account…

    But the fact of the matter is that the Russian military command [including CIC Putin] realize that there is already a war going on between the two sides…so far limited to proxy forces, economic, and informational…

    Now Putin, surely at the careful advice of his military men, decided to draw a line in the sand in Syria…there can be no retreat and no quarter given…this is something I have argued about [with Saker and Martyanov] in great detail…right from day one, the Russian force in Syria had to be an impregnable fortress…this is of course perfectly understood on the US side as well…

    Those are basic facts in this equation…knowing these boundaries, it becomes much easier to bring the picture into focus, and figure out how things may play out…

    Now there is always some elbow room for accommodation on the diplomatic side…we saw that in the first Sochi agreement a little over a year ago, where Russia chose to accommodate Erdogan and postpone a forceful liberation of Idlib…

    But it has become abundantly clear that Erdogan was holding his fingers crossed while signing on to that agreement, which came with very specific and tough terms…the removal of terrorists, the opening of the two major highways to normal traffic being the main ones…none of this has happened, in fact the opposite…the Sunni headchoppers [all groups specifically named as UN terrorist groups] have taken control…

    Now Turkey is clearly violating international law by sending an invasion force into Syria to support these illegal groups…

    Erdog is asking [actually telling] Russia to ‘get out of Turkey’s way’ or else…

    Well…clearly Russia is not going to ‘stand down’ [to once again borrow the even more ludicrous phrasing of our Sunni guest here]…

    Putin may in fact have ‘stood down’ the Russian air force for a few hours…but this was clearly a good will gesture and an opportunity for Erdog to DEESCALATE…

    He chose not to…and in fact used the opportunity to launch a quite brutal attack…

    To now attempt to infer that this temporary Russian accommodation is anything more than what it really is, is not realistic…as we see now with the Russian bombing that has resumed with renewed vigor…

    Was it a mistake on Putin’s part…?

    Tactically yes, that argument could certainly be made in light of the damage inflicted by Erdo on SAA and allies…

    A strategic mistake…?

    No…it does not change anything, the SAA is once again on the offensive and rolling back the gains made by the ‘rebels’…[again, it comes down to understanding the mechanics of escalation and the way that military commanders go about their work…these matters are not something that is understood by the general audience, including journalists like Magnier…]

    The Kremlin has now officially responded to Erdogan’s noises about Russia ‘getting out of the way’…reiterating once again that only Russia has a legitimate right to e in Syria…

    But ultimately it is actions, not words that count…we have seen just in the last few hours that Russia is indeed moving very forcefully again…so all of those commentators that jumped the gun and have raised the alarm are clearly wrong…

  196. Robjil says:
    @Talha

    USisrael has control of most of our planet.

    Russia, China and Iran have to be careful to not stir up the USisrael war machine.

    This is the way the world works now. At least for hundred years it has been this way. Germany and Japan tried to go free from the Zion world. Both were pounded into the sand.

    So, what you are saying is not a surprising.

    Turkey is acting like it is Donmeh run by its endless support for USisrael terrorism.

    • Replies: @Talha
  197. DFC says: • Website

    US Strike Carrier Group D. Eisenhower has entered the Mediterranean Sea after crossing the Strait of Gibraltar steaming to the East at good speed, to demonstrate “fully commitment to our allies and partners”, that means Turkey

    Things are heating up in Syria, NATO is moving, we’ll see if the Bear maintains the will to fight

    I smell some accord to put the front more or less to the same place of one month ago, it could be a big victory to Erdogan (for the moment)

    • Replies: @Robjil
    , @FB
    , @Miro23
  198. @Anon

    But he probably won’t, so at this stage there are really only two alternatives. Either the Russians are

    A. Much weaker than many here (including myself) claimed/hoped.
    B. Fully on the same page as the Americans, and just arguing over the size of their share.

    • Replies: @L.K
  199. @Alfred

    No question that Israel is the primary source of instability in the ME. What does it say about Russia’s strategic position that they have to appease Israel, at Russian expense?

    • Replies: @Alfred
  200. Robjil says:
    @DFC

    Purim is March 9/10 this year.

    Since the ZUS is a Zion Theocracy since 12.23.1913, this is not good sign.

    1991 Purim – ZUS war on Iraq ends with the Highway of death – Surrendering Iraqi soldiers firebombed.

    2003 Purim – ZUS starts war on Iraq

    2011 Purim- ZNATO starts war on Libya

    2019 Purim- ZUS “gives” Golan Heights to Israel

    2020 Purim – What might “happened”? Zturkey “given” Iblid. A major war?

    • LOL: FB
    • Replies: @Desert Fox
    , @Robjil
  201. @RadicalCenter

    This “defense” scam works like a charm: we, as taxpayers, incur debt, whereas MIC gets huge profits. US medicine is another criminal scam. It is grossly overpriced. If you look at any insurance explanation of benefits, the price billed is usually reduced by 70-80%, so the insurance pays 1/3 to 1/5 of the bill, and doctors and hospitals still make profit. If you don’t have insurance, they charge you “full price”, which is obviously criminally inflated.

    You are right, too few people realize how they are fleeced by MIC and medical scammers. Most of the sheeple are complacent and even buy “patriotic” BS used to talk them out of their money.

    • Agree: Showmethereal
  202. FB says: • Website
    @DFC

    US Strike Carrier Group D. Eisenhower has entered the Mediterranean Sea…

    Yup…and last week Russian Tu22M bombers armed with eight-ton, near hypersonic carrier-killer anti-ship missiles with a range of 1,000 km flew over the Black sea for five hours…

    Tu22M bomber in flight, showing three KH32 carrier killers…which fly at up to 5,400 km/hr [Mach 4.6]…[each of those missiles weighs about six tons]…

    [the KH32’s] maximum range of 1000 kilometers means it can be launched outside the maximum range of US Navy F/A-18 Super Hornets, which have a maximum combat radius of around 720 Kilometers.

    The Tupolev Tu22M Backfire is a 125-ton bomber [about the weight of a Boeing 757, but capable of flying at twice the speed of sound]…

    Russia upgraded a nuclear bomber — and its missiles are a nightmare for US Navy aircraft carriers

    The KH-32… has been purpose-built to take on US Navy aircraft carrier strike groups, the most expensive and powerful ships in the world.


    Admiral Charles R. Larson, Commander in Chief, US Pacific Fleet, sits in the cockpit of a Soviet Tu-22M Backfire aircraft during a visit to a Soviet air base during the latter Cold War period (US DoD)

    What’s the admiral thinking…will the bear blink, if not then who…?

    A more serious [and correct] article on the Backfire…

    Quick facts…the Backfire bomber and its previous generation KH22 carrier-killer missiles have been in operation since the 1960s…which is probably why the USN has never tried to poke the bear with its aircraft carriers…

  203. @Robjil

    Would add, Sept. 11, 2001 Israel and traitors in the ZUS government attack and destroy the WTC and blame the Arabs to have the excuse to destroy the mideast for greater Israel, and as usual they get away with it, just like the attack on the USS Liberty.

    • Agree: Alfred, Robjil
  204. @Swedish Family

    I think it’s unclear how hostilities with another country would be declared in this day and age in the context of Montreux. Countries pretty much avoid declarations of war in order to afford themselves maximum flexibility for an exit strategy and reduce domestic opposition, so perhaps an assertion of Russian “belligerency” would be sufficient to invoke Montreux.

    It will be interesting to see how Russia responds to the downing of the Syrian Su-24s and the renewed Turkish-backed jihadi offensive and then how Erdogan responds to that.

  205. @Talha

    I have a different view. This is not all about Syria. Russia is going to be a huge part of the OBR project for a number of reasons including technologically, materially and militarily, and I cannot imagine that anything will change that. That is the vast region where future global growth is predicted to occur. Russia is a big player who must convey to it’s partners, existing and potential, that it is solid and can be counted upon.

    Russia and Syria have a long history of cooperation and Russia has strategically important bases there. There have been numerous incidents, such as the murder of the Russian ambassador, planes downed and personnel killed and this has not escaped anyone’s attention in Russia. I would say that Russia is also well aware of the movement of arms and personnel into other areas close to them such as the Ukraine and Georgia to name just two.

    Russians are not fools when it comes to matters relating to their survival and they are very tough people, as a long list of the defeats of failed invasions proves. Time and time again they have shown a willingness to absorb losses to achieve their strategic military goals so only fools would even consider it. They cannot nor will not allow these rabid, jihadist mercenaries to escape.

    My bet is that Putin’s Russia will continue to absorb losses caused by criminal actions that violate international laws and when a point is finally reached where they cannot possibly blamed for striking back they will do so and they will do it hard and ruthlessly. Their international reputation and even survival as a sovereign nation will demand it of them. You shouldn’t corner the Russian bear without expecting to be bearing terrible wounds yourself.

  206. @NoseytheDuke

    Largely agree, but unfortunately the time when “they cannot possibly blamed for striking back” is a very long ways off, I’m afraid. If that’s what they’re waiting for, then indeed they will have to be prepared to accept great losses.

  207. @FB

    Yes, there’s no question that Russian intervention has retrieved the situation in Syria for the SAG. No one is contesting that.

    But Russia is still operating on a shoe-string, and the SAA is weak. Frankly, no existing Arab Army is likely to do very well against a non-Arab power like Turkey (or Iran) all other things being equal. Russia has a lot of firepower to nurse the SAA along, and maybe that will be enough. But I don’t find that a foregone conclusion. And yes, open hostilities with Turkey could become a strategic disaster for Russia as well as for Turkey. Too many variable to predict exactly how it will come out.

    I agree that Erdogan can’t salvage the jihadis in the long run. But the immediate issue is control of the Idlib pocket.

    If the Turks are now violating Syrian airspace to shoot down Syrian aircraft, that certainly ups the ante. The Russians have now (1 March) said that they cannot guarantee the safety of Turkish aircraft in Syrian airspace, which is a tacit threat to shoot them down:

    Russia could no longer guarantee the safety of Turkish aircraft flying over Syria, Oleg Zhuravlev, chief of the Russian Center for Reconciliation of the Opposing Parties in Syria, said on March 1.

    In his statement, Zhuravlev citied the Syrian Arab Army (SAA) recent decision to close the airspace over Greater Idlib as the reason. The Russian commander said that Syria was forced to take this decision.

    “In such conditions, the command of the Russian taskforce cannot guarantee safety of flights by Turkish planes over Syria,” Zhuravlev said.

    Soon will come the need to make good the threat.

    Would be nice if the two could work something out, because neither really benefits from this escalation, which is threatening to become a self-sustaining dynamic. But it’s looking less and less likely.

    • Replies: @FB
  208. @NoseytheDuke

    There are recent reports that RuAF (Su-24M2 and Su-34) has wiped out a large Turkish convoy in Sarmin, South Idlib. Turkish Army MEDEVAC helicopters are evacuating large numbers of killed and wounded TSK. Russian MOD has gone to ‘cocked pistol’ status in Syria.

    Very bad news and this needs to de-escalate ASAP. Neither Russia nor Turkey has anything to gain but a whole helluva lot to lose from this stupidity.

    • Agree: Talha, NoseytheDuke
  209. @FB

    I really can’t figure out what goes on in Edrogan’s head. As noted – Turkey has no business being in Syria

  210. Miro23 says:
    @DFC

    US Strike Carrier Group D. Eisenhower has entered the Mediterranean Sea after crossing the Strait of Gibraltar steaming to the East at good speed, to demonstrate “fully commitment to our allies and partners”, that means Turkey.

    Since the idea is to evaluate all possible scenarios, then “full commitment” could include US airstrikes against Syria in Idlib – with the Syrians and Russians required to back off.

    Russia will no doubt have a tipping point with regard to the US – it’s more a question of where it is. IOW, the question is, when would Russia’s national security would be better served by fighting the US (escalating) rather than backing down.

    A full Russia -US nuclear conflict would be over in 24 hours with both countries probably losing all their major cities (i.e. no longer being functional societies) leaving China as the winner. So Russia’s tipping point vs. the US is probably not going to be anything to do with Syria – it can rationally only be a direct nuclear threat to Russia itself.

    Also, US society is showing clear signs of imploding on its own without any need for Russian or Chinese help.

    • Replies: @FB
  211. L.K says:
    @Talha

    Talha,
    Having read several of your posts for several years now, it is clear that you are a sectarian Sunni. You are sneaky and you do it in ways that are generally not so obvious, but it is clear to anybody paying attention.

    You are on record here at Unz demonizing Alawites, their religion, president Assad( clearly only because he is an Alawite), spouting off nonsense about how Hafez al-Assad “massacred” Hama in 1982, when in reality Syrian troops and paramilitary units crushed a sectarian Muslim Brotherhood armed insurgency in the city, backed by foreign powers, etc. You can barely restrain your glee at videos showing the Turks directly carrying out illegal acts of war against the Syrian Army inside of Syria.

    You then push Turkish propaganda claiming the Syrian offensive in Idlib creates refugees and instability inside Turkey.
    It is actually the Turkish regime completely illegal support for mercenaries and Salafist fanatics, from ISIS to al-Qaeda in Syria & everything in between, that has destroyed so much of Syria & caused problems for Turkey.

    If the criminal Turkish regime desires stability and a resolution of the refugee situation, here is what it has to do, in the words of a Syrian citizen:

    “To the Turkish people,
    We Syrians want the war to end.
    We know you are tired of the 3.0 million Syrian refugees in your country.[ which Turkey & the ZUS coalition are fully responsible for ]
    Force your gov to make a deal with Syrian gov to end the war, so the 3.0 million Syrian refugees in Turkey can return safely to Syria.
    That simple.”

    Indeed. A lot of displaced Syrians have already returned to areas liberated and stabilized by the Syrian government and its Allies.
    Furthermore, the truth is that the number of new alleged war refugees is ridiculously inflated by Turkish propaganda, which has been weaponizing this for so long and is at it again.

    You also leave out the FUNDAMENTAL FACT that Erdogan has met none of his obligations under the Astana agreement. E. Magnier, a M.East expert living in Lebanon, explains:

    In October 2018, Turkey and Russia signed an agreement in Astana to establish a de-confliction zone along the Damascus-Aleppo (M5) and Aleppo-Latakia (M4) highways. It was agreed that all belligerents would withdraw and render the roads accessible to civilian traffic. Moreover, it was decided to end the presence of all jihadists, including the Tajik, Turkistan, Uighur and all other foreign fighters present in Idlib alongside Hayat Tahrir al-Sham (former ISIS, former al-Qaeda in Syria), Hurras al-Din (al-Qaeda in Syria), and Ahrar al-Sham with their foreign fighters and all “non-moderate” rebels. Last year, Hayat Tahrir al-Sham took full control of Idlib and its rural area under the watchful eyes of Turkey.

    Over a year later, the Turkish commitment to end the presence of jihadists and to open the M5 and M4 had not been respected. The Syrian Army and its allies, along with Russia, agreed to impose the Astana agreement by force.

    • Agree: Mustapha Mond
  212. FB says: • Website
    @Oscar Peterson

    Not sure what you mean by Russia operating on a ‘shoe string’…a baffling phrasing you are using repeatedly, without actually explaining this…

    So let’s look at the Russian ops in Syria…a little over a year ago, Russia gifted Syria with three S300 battalions, a very large air defense force [the same number of S400 hardware that India bought for five billion dollars, and half again as much as Turkey bought for three billion…]

    Not to mention that these are topline domestic-spec S300s that literally nobody else can get…

    The total number of Russian assets operating in Syria…airplanes, ships, naval and air bases etc…exceeds that of the US operations by at least an order of magnitude…

    More military hardware is now on its way for the SAA right now…I expect these to be considerable shipments…already Russia has moved more aircraft and personnel into Syria and this buildup too will continue as the situation requires…

    The point here is that Russia is fully committed to this fight…they are not going to let Syria twist in the wind under any circumstance, come hell or high water…

    Those commenters here who think otherwise are either entertaining their own wishful thinking [T-boy], or simply do not understand the facts [as you seem not to]…there are also the ones who are always pushing the panic button and griping over every perceived Russian hesitance to come down with the Hammer of Thor on everybody in sight, mainly Israel, but now Turkey…

    These are the backseat drivers who also aren’t paying attention to the big picture, which, as my map [which everyone has chosen to studiously ignore] shows that Syria has been brought back from the dead…

    Another common failing here is to take account of geography…Russia’s Southern Military District is a one hour hop away by aircraft [half an hour for supersonic fighters and bombers in full reheat…]

    Yet I hear ridiculous noises here about ‘supply chains’ and other such crapola…ignoring the fact that the US is on the other side of the world…

    Even Saker and others who should know better have often spouted as a given Centcom’s purported huge military advantage in the region…on paper of course, but as Sparky Anderson used to say, the ballgame isn’t played on paper…[as Iran has now shown to the world, after their bombing of US bases in Iraq…]

    So that bit of conventional wisdom has evaporated like the morning dew, as many of us who actually do know a thing or two have been trying to point out all along…

    Incidentally…the US would give its left nut to get ahold of just one of those above-mentioned S300s…yet Russia is willing to take the supposed ‘risk’ of giving them to Syria and having them fall into enemy hands…

    Does that sound lie Russia is worried about being swept out of Syria…as many here seem to think…?

    Or does that simple calculus tell a different story, that Russian general staff is supremely confident…?

    • Replies: @Oscar Peterson
  213. L.K says:
    @Beefcake the Mighty

    A. Much weaker than many here (including myself) claimed/hoped.
    B. Fully on the same page as the Americans, and just arguing over the size of their share.

    Hey Beefcake,

    Though I don’t fully trust the Russian government at all, I believe that your option A) is certainly at least partially correct, and more likely than B).

    Adding to your option A) is the problem that the Russians are dealing with highly reckless regimes and rogue states, such as the ZUS, Turkey & Israel. And while we are considering an escalation with Turkey, which would be bad enough, we cannot forget the ZUS, which could end up supporting Erdogan at some level, and then there would be risks of this whole thing going into a tailspin…

    At any rate, in the case of the Turkish revenge, it is clear the Russian government dropped the ball.
    I recommend the following article, by a war correspondent who lives in Lebanon and has many sources in the Syrian military and gov.

    Erdogan: Idlib is mine
    https://ejmagnier.com/2020/03/01/erdogan-idlib-is-mine/
    By Elijah J. Magnier

    … Over a year later, the Turkish commitment to end the presence of jihadists and to open the M5 and M4 had not been respected. The Syrian Army and its allies, along with Russia, agreed to impose the Astana agreement by force. In a few weeks, the jihadists defence line crumbled under heavy Russian bombing. …

    Turkey, according to the military commanders in Syria, saw the withdrawal of jihadists and decided to move thousands of troops into Syria to lead a counter-attack against the Syrian Army and its allies. This action made it impossible for Russia to distinguish between jihadists and the Turkish Army. Moreover, Turkey refrained from informing Russia – as it had agreed to according to the deconfliction agreement between Russia and Turkey – about the position of its regular forces. This was when Russia bombed a convoy killing 36 Turkish officers along with 17 jihadists who were present together with the Turkish Army. …

    According to the sources, Russia was surprised by the number of Turkish soldiers killed and declared a unilateral ceasefire to calm down the front and de-escalate. Moscow ordered its military operational room in Syria to stop the military push and halt the attack on rural Idlib. Engaging in a war against Turkey is not part of President Putin’s plans in Syria. Russia thought it the right time to quieten the front and allow Erdogan to lick his wounds. …

    This Russian wishful thinking did not correspond to Turkish intentions and plans in Syria. Turkey moved its military command and control base on the borders with Syria to direct attacks against the Syrian Army and its allies. Turkish armed drones mounted an unprecedented organised drone attack lasting several hours, destroying the entire Syrian defence line on the M5 and M4 and undermining the effectiveness of the Syrian Army, equipped and trained by Russia. Furthermore, Iran had informed Turkey of the presence of its forces and allied forces along the Syrian Army, and asked Turkey to stop the attack to avoid casualties. Turkey, which maintains over 2000 officers and soldiers in 14 observation locations that are today under Syrian Army control, ignored the Iranian request and bombed Iranian HQ and that of its allies, including a military field hospital killing 30 (9 Hezbollah and 21 Fatimiyoun) and tens of the Syrian army officers. …

    It was now clear that Russia, Iran and its allies had misunderstood President Erdogan: Turkey is in the battle of Idlib to defend what Erdogan considers Turkish territory (Idlib). That is the meaning of the Turkish message, based on the behaviour and deployment of the Turkish Army along with the jihadists.
    Damascus and its allies consider that Russia made a mistake in not preventing the Turkish drones from attacking Syrian-controlled territory in Idlib. Moreover, Russia made another grave mistake in not warning its allies that the political leadership in Moscow had declared a one-sided ceasefire, exposing partners in the battlefield and denying them air cover.

    This is not the first time Russia has stopped a battle in the middle of its course in Syria. It happened before at al-Ghouta, east Aleppo, el-Eiss, al-Badiya and Deir-ezzour. It was Russia who asked the Syrian Army and its allies to prepare for the M5 and M4 battle. Militarily speaking, such an attack cannot be halted unless a ceasefire is agreed to on all fronts by all parties. The unilateral ceasefire was a severe mistake because Russia neither anticipated the Turkish reaction nor did it allow the Syrian Army and its allies to equip themselves with air defence systems. Moreover, while Turkey was bombing the Syrian Army and its allies for several hours, it took many hours for Russian commanders to convince Moscow to intervene and ask Turkey to stop the bombing. …

    • Thanks: Beefcake the Mighty
  214. Lo says:

    Two Su-24, flying canisters are down. Bringing TAF count to 3. Today 3 more Pantsirs were destroyed by TAF, while their radars were on. Russian arms are being battle tested and failing miserably. Hope supporting Syrian dictator will be worth it for Russia, because Turks just started.

    • Troll: bluedog
  215. FB says: • Website
    @Miro23

    A full Russia -US nuclear conflict would be over in 24 hours with both countries probably losing all their major cities (i.e. no longer being functional societies) leaving China as the winner. So Russia’s tipping point vs. the US is probably not going to be anything to do with Syria…

    What…?

    Excuse me pinhead…but how do you leap instantly from zero to apocalypse in the time it takes a flea to fart…?

    That’s what your amateur attempt at ‘analyzing’ an escalation scenario boils down to…

    You first assume [wrongly] that the aircraft onboard US carriers are going to just waltz right in and start bombing Syria…

    You then assume that Russia then neatly steps out of the way and lets them continue bombing its ally…how long, indefinitely…until Russia is forced to flee…?

    And what happens if US airplanes entering Syrian airspace are shot down…probably first by those Syrian S300s I just spoke about…and if necessary, the Russian S400s…?

    In your ‘scenario’ the Pentagon immediately launches a nuclear first strike…?

    Do you realize the dribbling nonsense you are subjecting us to here…?

    Remember the Cuban missile crisis…?

    That’s Rudolf Anderson, a U2 pilot that was shot down over Cuba on Oct 27, 1962…

    Although Anderson was the only combat death of the crisis, three reconnaissance-variant Boeing RB-47 Stratojets of the 55th Strategic Reconnaissance Wing crashed between September 27 and November 11, 1962, killing a total of 11 crewmembers.

    You don’t seem to understand what happens when the gloves come off…and flying a hostile aircraft over just about anyone’s head means the gloves come off…Reagan’s bombing raid on Libya, 1986…Gadafi shoots down a US F111 jet and holds the bodies of crew until Jesse Jackson secures their release months later…

    According to your diarrhea, Libya should have been turned into a glass parking lot instantly…

    Serbia 1999…Serbs shoot down TWO F117 ‘stealth’ aircraft as well as a USAF F16 piloted by now General David Goldfein, present Chief of staff of the USAF…

    No nuclear weapons were launched…

    Vietnam War…over 10,000 US aircraft are lost…no nuclear weapons are launched…

    Korea 1951…Chinese Spring Offensive…the US Eighth Army is crushed, forcing the longest retreat of a US army in history, and just about swept out of the Korean peninsula altogether…Gen Ridgeway describes the Eighth as a ‘broken rabble’…

    No nuclear weapons are launched…[despite nutcase McAarthur’s shrieks demanding such…he was promptly fired by Truman…]

    Iraq 2020…Iran hits US base in Iraq with precision missiles, injuring over 100…no retaliation of any kind…

    You should try to master Lego as a first step, before dipping your yap into the domain of professional military analysis…what a fucking clown…

  216. Smith says:

    Battlefield is constantly changing days per days.

    Incredibly hard to know what’s going on the ground with all the tweeting noises everywhere.

    • Agree: Talha
  217. Brewer says:
    @Anonymous

    When I have been drinking I make it a rule to review any posts in the morning before hitting the Publish button.

  218. Brewer says:

    they have now reportedly asked the US to deploy Patriot missiles in southern Turkey

    Not sure I buy this. It doesn’t make sense and its all sourced from Bloomberg and its echo-chamber.

  219. Smith says:

    Never mind, SAA is winning back Saraquip. Holy freaking shit, I’m sorry for doubting Assad/Putin!

    And now greeks are shooting and killing invaders, it’s over for the Sultan, Euro’s mojo mojo is back!

  220. carlos129 says:

    Things look fucked for Russia and Syria right now. In this part of the world the only thing that gets respected is strength, weakness doesn’t tend to last too long and Putin & Syria looks weak now.

    1. New rules of the game Turks and head choppers can shoot at Syrians and Russians but Syrian`s and Russians can only shoot at head choppers, so Syria as the weaker party anyway are fighting with their arms tied this will never work. Russia wont do much as already shown.

    2. It looks like Turks waited as long as possible to wipe out as much Syrian forces as possible, think about it, if the area they want is larger, the more of the opposing forces they need to destroy to get it.

    3. This weakness is not going unnoticed even in Syria its kicking off again in the South around Daraa as the rebels there can see what`s going on. The US are now thinking Russia won’t stand in the way now. I`ll expect the “Assad must go” chants to come back and get louder.

    4. Ill bet Aleppo will be cut off soon (maybe even taken) with defences weakened.

    5. All this will have a HUGE demoralising effect on the Syrian army, being betrayed by Russia and have defeat snatched from the jaws of victory in such a way. Imagine being a Syrian soldier right now what would you think? I can’t see Assad surviving this.

    • Replies: @utu
  221. @Talha

    Talha,

    Gordon Duff is taking it to the extreme:

    https://www.veteranstoday.com/2020/03/01/intel-drop-erdogans-kosher-express-kills-2200-syrian-troops-destroys-100-tanks-and-humiliates-putin/

    This other article has a different interpretation:

    https://russia-insider.com/en/erdogan-calls-kremlin-bail-him-out-syria-fiasco-pitiless-putin-lines-behind-his-military/ri28357

    There will be further skirmishes and loss of life but I doubt this will escalate much. Erdogan is the kind of guy who likes to play games, blackmail, threaten, and then negotiate, but of course not in good faith. Putin and the Russians surely know what the Turks are like and take that into account in their dealings with them. They’ll let Erdogan run his mouth and achieve some limited success on the battlefield to boost his credibility with the Turks and give something to them to cheer about, but then they’ll calm things down and go about their business. And I don’t think Erdogan is crazy enough to start a major war for whatever reason. It’s all talk for the media and to make him look a tough macho guy in front of his people, all that telling Russia to step aside – he’s not being serious. And I’m sure Putin laughs when he hears it.

    • Agree: Talha
  222. Robjil says:
    @Robjil

    I should add another date to this time. March 9-11 is the time. There is another date for Purim. The date after Purim which is Shushan Purim. It is very ironic that Purim dates this year on our Calendar is 9-11 of March. In the Jewish Calendar it is always 13-15 of Adar. Shushan Purim is celebrated in Israel’s “new” capitol, Jerusalem, since Jerusalem is a walled city.

    https://www.myjewishlearning.com/article/shushan-purim/

    “But the Jews in Shushan mustered on both the 13th and 14th days and so rested on the 15th and made it a day of feasting and merrymaking. That is why village Jews who live in unwalled towns observe the 14th day of the month and make it a day merrymaking and feasting and as a holiday and an occasion for sending gifts to one another.”
    -Esther 9:18-9

  223. utu says:
    @carlos129

    Assad will survive. Five years ago before Russians moved in he was in much worse situation. He and Syrians realize that Russian help in stabilizing Syria came with strings attached that Russian presence in Syria was conditional on whatever mutual assurances were agreed between Putin and Netanyahu in 2015 when Netanyahu did not have a friend in the White House. With Trump in power this must have change in favor of Israel. Israel wants Syria weak and depended on the mercy of Russians who will be suppressing Iranian and Hezbollah activity in Syria and preventing Syria from having an adequate defense against Israel periodic bombings but at the same time Israel does not want Turkey to grab half of Syria and have Turks at Israel’s border.

    But you are correct that Russian contingent in Syria is small and thus very vulnerable. In case of a real hostilities Turkey could quickly overwhelm Russian forces in Syria. What keeps Russian contingent in Syria safe is a credible threat of escalation of war to Turkish territory.

  224. @Parbes

    Whatever it is costing you.

  225. Smith says:

    Why don’t Saker and any boomer pundits make any article about Greek border crisis?

    More aesthetics than Idlib.

  226. Aedib says:

    Saraqib liberated and M-5 re-opened again.

  227. Anonymous[198] • Disclaimer says:

    Erdogan Claims Turkey Now Wants Lasting Ceasefire in Idlib

    This is another shift of the initially declared goal, which was supposed to be all Syrian Arab Army forces, as well as their Russian support to retreat back beyond the Turkish observation posts set out in the Sochi Agreements back in October 2018. This meant that the Syrian government should give up on thousands of square kilometers of liberated area.

    Now, Turkey seems to only wish a ceasefire and the liberated areas to remain.

    What a two-ring circus clown show. It’s Monday, and the Lunar Cycle is showing Moon to be in its first quarter phase – which means that the stated Turkish foreign policy, today, will be ever so slightly less insane. Please tune in tomorrow for further updates and likely surprises. The situation is fluid, to say the least, and Merdegun’s convictions have obviously transitioned from fluid to gaseous long ago.

    Uh, whatever happens in the future it’s clear that the Sultan is a lost cause. No agreement with him is worth the paper it’s printed on. The Jews obviously have a thick file containing his psychological profile so it’s only matter of time before they successfully goad him into fighting Russia. This will test Russian resolve/capability, destroy relations between the two countries and bring Turkey firmly back into the fold when the Sultan loses and his own people give him the Gaddafi treatment.

    Even if someone medicates him today, and he proceeds to behave like a human being from now on, Turkey has already suffered incalculable political and economic damage with this behaviour. We’ll never know how many potential investors, tourists and world leaders have decided to change their plans recently. To say that the country is unstable under the current regime would be a significant understatement.

  228. Anon[333] • Disclaimer says:

    https://www.mintpressnews.com/syria-energy-dominance-russia-aligning-with-israel-against-iran/264661/

    Opinion:

    – Russia is letting Turkey get rid of unwanted SAA officers, and IRI and Hezbollah assets.

    – Russia (as the cartoon above in this thread shows perhaps unintentionally) wants a “little helpless bear” Syria. The leader of Arab nationalism is a helpless little bear now.

    – Russia and Israel are undeclared strategic allies. A glance at the history, demographics, and geography + a glance towards China makes the inherent logic of this equation clear. That axis from Moscow to Tel Aviv (with permanent bases obtained from a prostate Syria) is the Energy Toll Booth for China and Europe. Guess who wants to control it?

    • LOL: Alfred
    • Replies: @Anonymous
  229. Anonymous[198] • Disclaimer says:
    @Anon

    Thanks. Now I know that mintpressnews.com is garbage. Please note the inherent logic of this equation.

    • Agree: Robjil
    • Troll: L.K
  230. FB says: • Website
    @Talha

    Hello Talha…lots of fresh developments this morning…

    Russian Military Police Entered Saraqib In Eastern Idlib: Russian Military

    Saraqib city is fully back in the hands of the SAA and allies…amid ongoing heavy Russian bombardment of Turkish backed headchoppers and Turkish soldiers embedded with them…

    From the Lebanese Al Masdar News…

    Russian Air Force not backing down in northwest Syria as they intensify strikes

    …the Russian Air Force has intensified their attacks over the southern and eastern regions of Idlib, inflicting heavy losses in the ranks of the jihadist and Turkish-backed rebels.

    Russian airstrikes are still raining down on the militant positions west of Saraqib; this has given the Syrian Arab Army (SAA) the opportunity to secure the recently captured city.

    The southern Idlib Front is also being hit hard by Russian warplanes…as the SAA retakes more territory…a map showing the SAA gains since yesterday…

    So let’s rewind the tape a little, shall we…?

    Russia is…taking a conscious decision to let Turkey eliminate quite a bit of SAA men and equipment…

    T-boy’s prediction of just a few hours ago…

    Like I said, we’ll see how this plays out in the next few days/weeks.

    Another of the countless ‘chestunts’ deposited here by our own Takfiri cheerleader…

    Well…we certainly didn’t need to wait ‘weeks’ now did we…?

    …everyone here probably already assumes it’ll work out just like you’ve predicted. And then I will be very embarrassed.

    Very ’embarrassed’…?…doubt it…but let’s wait some more, shall we…

    I’m not even going to get into your remarks about Russia ‘standing down’ in the face of the pissant Erdogan and his tinpot army…

    Anyway…besides your silly noises, we saw an entire chorus of clowns here joining in the same kind of wishcasting about Russia folding its tent in Syria…one Lego specialist even predicted a nuclear war in 24 hours…

    I expect we will not be hearing much from these fools today, as Turkish ‘troops’ are turning tail and running, while Russian jets rain bombs on them…and Erdo makes panicked squawks about another ‘ceasefire’…

    LOLOLOL

    • Thanks: Robjil, Alfred
    • Replies: @Talha
  231. Talha says:
    @Robjil

    USisrael has control of most of our planet…This is the way the world works now.

    OK – if that’s Russia’s cop-out (even when possessing the second most powerful military in the world), then that easily follows for the Turks (who rank somewhere between 10-15).

    You seem to be getting the impression that I said Russia is Israel’s lap dog. I said no such thing. I specifically said that their leadership is close, much closer than Israel and Turkey and have convergent interests (as well as divergent ones). You don’t see Netanyahu being invited this often for meetings between the leadership of China or even Western allies like Japan.

    The issue – as it seems to me is that there are divergent interests:
    1. The US wanted to completely shatter the Middle East and make it further dependent client states (in one piece, if possible, in many if necessary) – this converges with Israeli interests that are quite happy to have a bunch of warring Muslims regions at each others’ throats
    2. The Russian interest in status-quo (like circa 2005 or even earlier) before things kicked off in the Middle East due to what the US did with the Iraq invasion. Part of this has to do with losing reliable military client states (like Iraq which is now purchasing F-16s as the backbone of its air force and the M1-Abrams as the backbone of its army instead of Russian builds like it used to). Part of that status-quo is to assure that Israel retains its military edge in the region.

    When the Syrian civil war broke out, the main backers of Assad were Iran and Hezbollah. THAT is Israel’s nightmare scenario; a battle-hardened Syrian military that is heavily embedded with and integrated with Iranian command and control structure and effective fighting patterns (along Hezbollah in Lebanon, 2006). That was one of the reasons for keeping the US around to make sure that didn’t get too far. The second best option was to have Russia basically take over Syrian defense or have to have everything coordinated through them.

    I personally think utu said it best in his post:

    Israel wants Syria weak and depended on the mercy of Russians who will be suppressing Iranian and Hezbollah activity in Syria and preventing Syria from having an adequate defense against Israel periodic bombings but at the same time Israel does not want Turkey to grab half of Syria and have Turks at Israel’s border.

    The absolute worst case scenario for Israel would have been a negotiated peace and end to the civil war forged between Iran and Turkey and their mutual interests while removing or minimizing US and Russian involvement. A political alignment between Turkey (who already has a high level of military industrial cooperation with Pakistan) and Iran and them working on integrating Syria and Iraq into some sort of military cooperative network (independent of Gulf Arab influence) with serious command and control integration is probably the only thing that gives Israeli commanders nightmares because that means the Muslim world (at least the old “Persianate” bloc) is getting its act together and imposing an order in the interests of its own major players.

    This kind of thing CANNOT allowed to happen, so if that means (for Israel to retain that qualitative edge), the Syrian military has to lose a few hundreds or thousand battle hardened units, some commanders and a boat load of equipment (because there is no way they will be able to replace that without the charity of Russia – I mean the US controls its oil fields) because Russia pulls back on its air defense umbrella and lets the Turks go postal for a few days, hey – that seems to work out to impose the status quo that works for both Russia and Israel (who it looks like is also flying air sorties into Syrian air space right now without any push back). The control of Syrian defense also gives leverage to Russia to negotiate with Israel (like it did with stopping arms sales to Ukraine).

    Putin is absolutely brilliant and is accomplishing everything that seems to be in Russia’s interests. And all over a fairly tiny piece of land in a pocket of Syria. It is really something to witness.

    If the Syrian war ends and the Russians stick around, but ask (and convince the Syrians to push for) the Iranians to go home because “we got this, bro – don’t worry” – that will be the biggest sign.

    Peace.

    • Replies: @Talha
    , @Robjil
    , @Anonymous
  232. Talha says:
    @FB

    I am 100% open to me being wrong about the situation and said so already. I guess we wait and see what developments happen until Thursday when Putin and Erdogan meet.

    Peace.

  233. @FB

    By “shoe-string,” I mean that Russia is able to bring a relative pittance of resources to bear in Syria. Of course, they have used them to maximum effect, and the efficiency of the Russian effort is impressive. But nonetheless, they have a relatively small chunk of air assets, some artillery, air defense and EW and no ground forces to speak of. Putin has made it clear that he really doesn’t want to tie up lots of resources in Syria. Russia is dealing with sanctions and a relatively small overall economy even when PPP is figured in. He wants to make major investments in Russian infrastructure–not spend huge amounts of money in Syria. And most of the supplies for Syria must make their way through a waterway that could, under certain circumstances, be closed to him.

    I call this operating on a shoe string. The fact that Russia has used its limited resources effectively doesn’t change this and represents a vulnerability in the context of possible escalation of the situation with Turkey (albeit Turkey has its own larger problems.)

    Sure, Russia is committed. But as the US military likes to say, “The enemy has a vote.”

    A retired Russian colonel with an appreciation of the complexities involved recently made some interesting and nuanced observations:

    “Should there be a massive military incursion of the Turkish army into Syria, things may spin out of control. The risk of a large-scale military regional conflict is high,” Ret. Col. Mikhail Khodarenok wrote on Feb. 21.

    Khodarenok believes Turkey has enough military might to overrun the Syrian army within days. He argues that the ultimate outcome in such a war would have been decided by the position of other powers — Russia, the United States and NATO.

    “Should Moscow choose not to intervene it will be a political-military fiasco. The Kremlin as a geopolitical player in the Middle East will be done,” he argued, adding, “More than five years of Moscow’s efforts in Syria would be wasted,” and “This will be the price of the Russian non-interference over Idlib.”

    Yet he equally cautioned against open Russian military engagement with Turkey, warning, “Turkey will have an overwhelming superiority in personnel and military hardware. … Russia is too far from the theater of operations and won’t have the time or logistical capabilities” to bring in the personnel or equipment needed and “In order to win this war, Russia would need to transfer a phenomenal amount of aircrafts, fuel and ammunition.”

    The only way to deter Erdogan from further escalation, Khodarenok argued, would be the threat of tactical nuclear weapons. But the international repercussions for Russia may be too severe to seriously consider this option.

    https://www.al-monitor.com/pulse/originals/2020/02/russia-turkey-idlib-putin-erdogan.html

    The real issue now is to see how the situation evolves from the shoot-down of the Su-24s, that is, from the hostile entry into Syrian airspace of Turkish F-16s–a direct challenge to Putin especially insofar as it is a harbinger of future Turkish behavior.

    • Agree: utu
    • Thanks: Talha
    • Replies: @Mike P
    , @FB
  234. Talha says:
    @NoseytheDuke

    This is not all about Syria.

    100% agree here. It’s simply not all that important in strategic terms as a country – Iraq is far more important.

    They cannot nor will not allow these rabid, jihadist mercenaries to escape.

    Sure – I think the eventual plan is to either disarm them or eliminate as many of them prior to it.

    My bet is that Putin’s Russia will continue to absorb losses

    Well the brilliance in his strategy is that its mostly Syrian soldiers who are getting killed (and quite a few Hezbollah guys and Iranians – I even saw photos of a funeral in Iran for some Pakistani volunteers that were killed in the strikes). I don’t think the Russian public cares much about kebab on kebab violence to be honest. If they were told Russia carpet bombed a refugee camp, there might be a murmur here and there, but likely not much more – I mean the intense bombing campaigns they did in places like Chechnya (you ever see pictures of Grozny from that time) and Afghanistan…I don’t think that really caused any consternation.

    NOW if Russian soldiers were getting killed, I think that would be a huge problem for the Russian public (they didn’t like it when one of their pilots was shot down). But again, the brilliance in Putin’s strategy has been to make a large use of Wagner mercenaries (many of whom are getting killed) so that even Russian losses aren’t really that much of an issue.

    You shouldn’t corner the Russian bear without expecting to be bearing terrible wounds yourself.

    Totally agree, but I don’t think it’ll even get that far:
    “‘We don’t plan to go to war with anyone,’ Putin says, amid Syria-Turkey tensions”
    https://www.cnbc.com/2020/03/02/putin-says-russia-doesnt-want-war-as-turkey-syria-tensions-rise.html

    Sure, they might whack a few dozen more Turkish soldiers within that corridor – but that’s just the price of doing business when you send armed military-age males across a border. The good thing is that Turks are also used to casualties; sometimes they’ll have around 50 in a month against Kurdish PKK or something even before the Syrian civil war so they also have a certain tolerance range.

    Peace.

  235. Talha says:
    @Talha

    Israel (who it looks like is also flying air sorties into Syrian air space right now without any push back)

    “I have placed a goal that within 12 months Iran will leave Syria,” he told the Post during an interview earlier this week ahead of Israel’s third round of elections within a year. “Iran has nothing to look for in Syria. They aren’t neighbors, they have no reason to settle next to Israel, and we will remove Iran from Syria in the near future.”
    During his 100 days as defense minister, Bennett has been working to escalate Israel’s steps against Iranian forces in Syria and force Tehran to withdraw its troops from Israel’s northern border.
    According to foreign reports, it is not only the increased intensity of the strikes that have increased but the types of targets that have been hit, Bennett said.
    https://www.jpost.com/Breaking-News/Civilian-killed-in-Israeli-drone-strike-in-Quneitra-Syrian-media-619072

    Ah now this will really be the true test about Russian presence in Syria and whether it really cares about its territorial integrity.

    IF Israel actually plans to make an offensive into Syria (even if it is a large-scale, at-will air strikes without ground troops) to drive Iranian presence out (even though they are there at the Syrian government’s behest) and Russia simply stands aside and we hear of no IAF aircraft being shot down by the vaunted Russian air defense systems…well, the cat will be out of the bag by Q1, 2021 if this Bennet’s timeline is attempted.

    And now they are starting to be out and open about it.

    • Replies: @Talha
    , @Alfred
  236. Robjil says:
    @Talha

    Turkey has been supporting the USisraeli terrorists for years.

    Turkey and Israel have been working together to help the USisraeli terrorists on both sides of the Syria border. Israel at the south border and Turkey at the north border. So how the would Turkey be doing anything good for Syria if it was doing this? Russia at least is not supporting any terrorists. I rather live in a world without terrorism, like a Pax Romana. Turkey and Israel are creating Pox USisraeliana – a diseased world of horror. Utu logic misses the point.

    https://www.geoengineeringwatch.org/turkey-and-israel-are-directly-supporting-isis-and-al-qaeda-terrorists-in-syria/

    Opposition Turkish lawmakers say that the government is protecting and cooperating with ISIS and Al Qaeda terrorists, and providing free medical care to their leaders.

    According to a leading Turkish newspaper (Today’s Zaman), Turkish nurses are sick of providing free medical treatment to ISIS terrorists in Turkish hospitals.

    According to Pulitzer-prize winning reporter Seymour Hersh and leaked phone calls between top Turkish officials, Turkey also carried out the chemical weapons attack which has been blamed on Assad, and has planned other “false flag attacks” within Turkey.

    Foreign Policy documents that Israel is also treating ISIS terrorists for free in its hospitals:

    Oil from USisraeli terrorists went to Turkey during the height of Isis (USisraeli terrorists) rule.

    https://www.sott.net/article/307670-How-about-that-resignation-Erdogan-Turkey-is-buying-oil-from-ISIS

    In June 2014, a member of Turkey’s parliamentary opposition, Ali Edibogluan, claimed that IS had smuggled $800 million worth of oil into Turkey from Syria and Iraq, according to the Al Monitor website.

    He cited oil fields at Rumaila in northern Syria and others near Mosul in Iraq, saying that IS had laid pipes allowing it to “transfer the oil to Turkey and parlay it into cash”.
    “Turkey’s cooperation with thousands of men of such a mentality is extremely dangerous,” he said, according to the Al Monitor report.

    Turkey is a Donmeh land. It is not working for the interests of any one but USisrael.

    The reason Putin deals with Nethy is that Russia as the Soviet Union was a big player in the world. It is continues this tradition as Russia now.

    China was not a big player for years. I isolated itself in Mao years. It has so catching up to do.

    Turkey does not do much open talk with Israel. It is all underhanded. It works with Israel by supporting USisraeli terrorism.

    • Replies: @Desert Fox
    , @Talha
  237. Talha says:
    @Talha

    And – from that same article quoting the Defense Minister:
    Israel has carried out hundreds of airstrikes in Syria against Iranian targets over the last several years, but does not generally comment on specific attacks.

    An Israeli paper is admitting that Israel has carried out HUNDREDS of strikes in Syria over the last several years. Has there been one aircraft downed? Has one even been shot at? Asking for a friend.

    • Replies: @Robjil
    , @FB
  238. DFC says:

    @ FB

    I know that Russia has the means to wreak havoc on a US CSG, but then, what do you think the US and NATO will do after some 5000 soldiers die…

    The question is if Erdogan will see this as a green light to increase the attacks on syrian troops and if the russians will start bombing directly the turkish troops to stop them, and what the americans (not only the carriers but many nasties subs and other assests in the CENTCOM area) will do in the case of mounting turkish fatalities and an escalation.

    This is a big test for the russian leadership, and I am not sure Turkey will not achieve some quite big concessions in Syria

  239. Alfred says:
    @Talha

    “I have placed a goal that within 12 months Iran will leave Syria,”

    That is laughable. The Israelis are blowing up buildings of no strategic importance in Syria. Big deal. 🙂

    More electioneering by jailbird Netanyahu.

    The reality of the matter is if there is a big conflict, the Jews will go back to Europe post haste. They all have several passports. They know that those who leave it too late will have the doors closed in their faces.

    Europe is afraid of Israel’s nuclear weapons. That is what keeps them up at night. When the house of cards falls down, we will find out who are the real “friends of Israel”

    • Replies: @Talha
  240. @Alfred

    If the Turks are so foolish as to close the Straits, the Russians would ensure that no one else could use them as well – and the Suez Canal.

    In a de jure or de facto state of war involving the straits, Russia might do that, but the fact is that it would be Russia who would suffer the most, so the ability to stop others from using it wouldn’t solve their strategic problem.

    I don’t think the Russians would try to close Suez; I don’t think it would help them–and how could they do it anyway? Yes, they’ve got their new hypersonic missiles which are very potent and can be fired from over the Black Sea into the Med, but I wonder how big their arsenal of those is at this point.

    Closing the Straits to Russian shipping would no doubt have costs for Turkey. But they are entitled to do it under the provisions of the Montreux Convention, and if Erdogan is willing to escalate the crisis in Idlib, he would be foolish NOT to prevent Russian resupply. In fact, that would have to be a key part of his strategy. Now, escalating in Idlib in the first place might well be considered foolish, but that’s another issue.

    • Replies: @Alfred
    , @NoseytheDuke
  241. @Robjil

    Agree, see todays veteranstoday.com report on this subject.

  242. Robjil says:
    @Talha

    Here is a good explanation about what is going with these endless Israeli strikes on Syria.

    https://southfront.org/putin-allowing-israel-bomb-syria/

    First of all, while I always said that the IDF’s ground forces are pretty bad, this is not the case of their air forces. In fact, their record is pretty good. Now if you look at where the Russian air defenses are, you will see that they are all concentrated around Khmeimim and Tartus. Yes, an S-400 has a very long range, but that range is dependent on many things including the size of the target, its radar-cross section, its electronic warfare capabilities, the presence of specialized EW aircraft, altitude, etc. The Israelis are skilled pilots who are very risk averse so they are very careful about what they do. Finally, the Israelis are very much aware of where the Russians are themselves and where there missiles are. I think that it would be pretty safe to say that the Israelis make sure to keep a minimal safe distance between themselves and the Russians, if only to avoid any misunderstanding. But let’s say that the Russians did have a chance to shoot down an Israeli aircraft – what would be the likely Israeli reaction to such a shooting? In this article Darius Shahtahmasebi writes: “Is it because Israel reportedly has well over 200 nukes all “pointed at Iran,” and there is little Iran and its allies can do to take on such a threat?” I don’t see the Israelis use nukes on Russian forces, however, that does in no way mean that the Russians when dealing with Israel should not consider the fact that Israel is a nuclear armed power ruled by racist megalomaniacs. In practical terms this means this: “should Russia (or any other country) risk a military clash with Israel over a few destroyed trucks or a weapons and ammunition dump”? I think that the obvious answer is clearly ‘no’.

    • Replies: @utu
    , @Talha
  243. Anonymous[198] • Disclaimer says:
    @Talha

    So you’re still pushing this skull-splittingly stupid narrative that Putin was – ackchyually – working for Israel all this time? I have no words. Maybe that yellow star project wasn’t such a good idea. Ideally it’s supposed to represent a level-headed, knowledgeable and insightful commenter (IMO).

    And there you are.

    • LOL: FB
    • Replies: @Talha
  244. Talha says:
    @Alfred

    The reality of the matter is if there is a big conflict, the Jews will go back to Europe post haste.

    Probably, but Russian presence in the region is a guarantor that it won’t even get to this level. The Russians have done nothing to stop hundreds of Israeli airstrikes. The presence of Russia (and other Western forces in the region) is to help maintain a certain status quo – details can shift here and there, but major game changers cannot be allowed to happen.
    “Iraqi factions opposed to the U.S. military presence received a gift on February 3, when President Donald Trump declared that U.S. troops were to remain in Iraq to ‘monitor Iran.’ …While Trump made clear in his comments that he did not wish to use Iraq to launch an attack on Iran, he did link the presence of U.S. troops to U.S. policy toward Iran—directly contradicting Iraqi officials’ line that the troops are there to train the Iraqi military to combat the Islamic State (IS). Similarly, Trump’s unannounced visit to American troops in Anbar in late December stirred a negative response because it appeared to violate protocol—he did not visit Baghdad first nor meet with any Iraqi officials—and was viewed as a violation of Iraqi sovereignty. Adbul-Mahdi was forced to explain that Iraq’s sovereignty had not been violated because U.S. troops were in Iraq at the Iraqi government’s request to fight IS.”
    https://carnegieendowment.org/sada/78782

    As I stated, there are straight-line borders, drawn by agreements between various European men with handle-bar moustaches and suits and ties that were carved out for a reason, those must be maintained at any cost for the same reason that they were drawn.

    Europe is afraid of Israel’s nuclear weapons.

    Yup.

    Peace.

  245. Mike P says:
    @Oscar Peterson

    Khodarenok believes Turkey has enough military might to overrun the Syrian army within days.

    Yet Turkey has not done so while they were in a much more advantageous position than they are now, in spite of Erdogan’s noises and threats over the years. It seems to me that the Syrian army is quite capable on the ground, as long as they have Russian air support; and that support has been forthcoming and steady.

    By now, everyone knows that Erdogan’s threats are mostly empty, and his behaviour erratic. In contrast, Putin has the discipline for the long game, and he knows and values the strength that comes from saying as he does and doing as he says. Putin simply is not going to let Erdogan undermine his hard-won credibility; and he will find ways to assert himself without ‘tactical nukes’ or similar nonsense. Whatever Erdogan believes he can gain by his adventure, it is going to end in failure.

    • Agree: FB
  246. utu says:
    @Robjil

    This is not an explanation but obfuscation of what is the real role of Russians in Syria.

    • Agree: Talha
  247. Talha says:
    @Robjil

    So how the would Turkey be doing anything good for Syria if it was doing this?

    When did I say at any point what Turkey was doing, is good for Syria as a whole? I specifically said:
    “And because it has spilled over into a situation where it is facing unintended consequences, it is acting in its further calculated interests because it is trying to stop the flow of people (and likely make sure Kurdish groups don’t move into the area). People here seem to think I am arguing that the Turkish government is doing this out of the goodness of their hearts – I have said no such thing. It is a calculated cost-benefit move.”

    Use of militant proxies is part and parcel of this kind of engagement. This is why they are expendable once goals are met. Then, when they are deteriorated due to fighting and have run their usefulness out, they are disarmed or eliminated. That’s the funny thing about these kinds of militias – they are so disliked by everyone, nobody will object to you eliminating them after having used them.

    I’m just pointing out the calculations involved here. I do not support using Muslim extremists as shock troops – even if they are often effective. I have already stated that I believe Turkey’s involvement in Syria was a huge mistake.

    Oil from USisraeli terrorists went to Turkey during the height of Isis (USisraeli terrorists) rule.

    Correct – and Israel also.

    The reason Putin deals with Nethy is that Russia as the Soviet Union was a big player in the world. It is continues this tradition as Russia now.

    Well that was my point. That tradition of the status quo must be maintained – Russia is an integral part of this. And part of that status quo being that Israel is granted a certain level of military hegemony and qualitative dominance in the region vis-a-vis its rivals.

    Peace.

    • Replies: @Robjil
  248. Alfred says:
    @Beefcake the Mighty

    What does it say about Russia’s strategic position that they have to appease Israel, at Russian expense?

    They are playing the long game. Netanyahu and Trump are thinking of their next elections. The Russians don’t want them to make a miscalculation for electoral gain.

    • Replies: @Beefcake the Mighty
  249. FB says: • Website
    @Oscar Peterson

    Okay…so your rebuttal about the ‘shoestring’ nature of Russian forces in Syria is backed up by nothing…I will not dwell on this since you are merely repeating an unfounded opinion, without bringing any supporting facts about numbers, as I have done, and no specific rebuttals to my numbers and other points…

    But I will respond to the analysis of Col Khodarenok, who does in fact have the bona fides to speak with authority…let’s first link to his original article, not the snippets of quotes reproduced in that Al Monitor article you linked to…

    Absolute superiority: who will stop Erdogan in Syria

    Published in the Russian Gazeta on February 21 [ten days ago]…

    Here the Col, who did in fact serve on the General Staff from 1988 to 1992, outlines exactly the kind of contingency planning that I have been trying to impress on amateurs here…that military commanders plan and wargame for ANY possible contingency, at any time, including two seconds from right now…

    As we see from his article, he outlines four scenarios…

    1…Catastrophic non-interference, where Russia basically ‘steps out of the way’ in the face of a full-scale Turkish invasion…resulting in ‘a military-political disaster’ for Russia and an end to its being a power in the Middle East…

    2…Ineffective intervention…where Russia supports the SAA against the invading Turks, but is somehow unable to prevail…more on that in a minute…

    3…Tactical threats…where Russia threatens Turkey with tactical nuclear strikes…[now he’s going into la la land…this is completely opposite to Russia’s declared nuclear strike policy, which is quite specific, and purely DEFENSIVE…]

    4…Compromise…a diplomatic give and take with Turkey…

    Let’s talk about the last one first…

    The Turks are likely to take control of the strategic highway M5 Hama-Aleppo again, eliminate the emerging threat from the army of Bashar al-Assad…

    So this has already proven totally false since the Colonel’s article was written some days ago…the big Turkish push on Saraqib, where they attempted to do just what the Colonel wrongly predicted, has been vigorously repelled by heavy Russian bombing in support of the SAA…

    Furthermore, Russia has publicly announced that it can no longer ‘guarantee the safety’ of Turkish aircraft if they intrude on Syrian airspace…there is a no fly zone there now…

    So we see that the fast moving events of the last few days have already exposed serious gaps in this analysis…

    In fact, I must comment here that the Colonel’s remarks about the key highways in Idlib being ceded to Turkey are totally opposite to the rhetoric coming from the Kremlin now…there is much material from Lavrov for instance, where it is obvious that securing these highways under SAA control is ABSOLUTELY CENTRAL to Moscow’s position…in fact this was to have happened under the deal with Turkey signed in Sochi back in fall, 2018 concerning the demilitarized zone…

    So the Colonel is demonstrably talking sheer nonsense here…not good…

    Okay…so let’s go back to his other scenarios…specifically the ‘ineffective intervention’…

    Here we have the ‘meat and potatoes’ of his analysis…it boils down to the dubious notion that, since Turkey has over 200 F16s, so Russia would need to increase its aviation assets inside Syria by twenty-fold in order to be ‘effective’ in repelling a Turkish onslaught…

    Well…this is really nonsense on so many levels that it becomes supremely easy to debunk…

    What happened in Serbia in 1999, when the US and 18 other Nato countries [including Turkey] brought over 1,000 aircraft to bomb Yugoslavia…?

    Did they win…?

    Short answer no…I have discussed this at length here on this website because it was Nato’s most recent major air campaign…and because the Serbs with just a tiny air defense force, and practically zero flyable fighter jets were able to hold this huge onslaught at bay for nearly three months…

    I have often pointed to an analysis published in the USAF’s premier professional publication…

    Kosovo and the Continuing SEAD Challenge by Dr Benjamin S Lambeth, Aerospace Power Journal, Summer 2002, text begins on page 14…[SEAD stands for suppression of enemy air defense]

    Just a quick recap here…things did not go well at all for 1,000 Nato warplanes…unlike the ‘satisfying’ experience against Iraq in 1991…from page 17…

    NATO never fully succeeded in neutralizing the Serb IADS [integrated air defense system], and NATO aircraft operating over Serbia and Kosovo were always within the engagement envelopes of enemy SA-3 and SA-6 missiles— envelopes that extended as high as 50,000 feet…

    Even during the operation’s final week, NATO spokesmen conceded that they could confirm the destruction of only three of Serbia’s approximately 25 known mobile SA-6 batteries.

    On their side of the ledger, the Serbs managed to take out TWO state of the art F117 ‘stealth’ fighters…plus an F16…[the second killed F117 managed to limp back to base in Italy, but was so thoroughly damaged that it was written off, as per USAF Col Everest Riccione…]

    Canopy and ejection seat and wing of F-117 with serial number 82-0806 at the Belgrade Aviation Museum

    Nato warplanes fired over 700 missile shots, but managed to take out only three mobile SAMs [ancient Soviet era mobile surface to air missile launchers…]

    What would happen against Syria’s Russian-spec S300s and Russia’s own S400s in Syria…?

    The Nato aircraft and missiles are basically unchanged from 1999…but the Serbs were using generations old Soviet equipment…Lambeth again…

    Fortunately for NATO, the Serb IADS did not include the latest-generation SAM equip­ment currently available on the international arms market.

    One SA-10/12 [early S300] site in Belgrade and one in Pristina could have provided defensive coverage over all of Serbia and Kosovo. They also could have threatened Rivet Joint, Compass Call, and other key allied aircraft such as the airborne command and control center and the Navy’s E-2C operating well outside enemy airspace.

    End result is that little Serbia stood off the full might of Nato air power and fought to a draw…[even though Lambeth quite naturally tries to sugar coat somewhat this bitter pill]…

    These are the facts of modern air combat…the simple equation is that modern air defense systems have now achieved primacy against attacking warplanes in the battle over airspace…this is not news to professionals…the issue of tackling Russian S300/400 continues to be a nut that hasn’t yet been cracked…see USAF general Philip Breedlove on how ‘new’ kinds of approaches are needed to deal with these air defense ‘bubbles’…

    So Col Khodarenok’s notion that Russia would need several hundred more fighter jets in Syria is simply not true [and he knows it, having been Commander of the S-75 anti-aircraft missile battalion, 1980–1983…S75 being the 1950s era SAM that brought down the high flying Lockheed U2 spy planes of Gary Powers over Russia in 1960s, and Maj Rudolf Anderson over Cuba in 1962…

    The simple fact is that even if Turkey and all of Nato were to somehow decide to throw all in and try to take out Syria’s air defenses, the result would be massive loss of aircraft and a catastrophe for Nato…

    I will not bother to discuss more military-technical details at this point…for instance the fact that Russia has an airbase in Armenia that lets Russian fighter jets be over Syria very quickly, or that the Russian fighters have very long range [they carry a lot of fuel, unlike F16s that have very short reach] and can easily reach Syria from Russian bases in the south of the country…the Su35 for instance has a range of over 3,500 km and a combat radius of 1,500 km…

    They are within striking distance of Syria right from Russia, so there is no need to fly in hundreds of aircraft…

    Lastly, we get a clue about Col Khodarenkov’s agenda in his closing remarks…

    What conclusions from the current situation should Moscow make?

    Suppose that in the Eastern Mediterranean there was a Russian naval group consisting of two aircraft carrier attack groups (two nuclear attack aircraft carriers of the Storm type), 15 destroyers of the Leader type, 10 multi-purpose nuclear submarines of Project 885M, a marine division on universal landing ships with a displacement of 25 -30 thousand tons, supply and support vessels with a stock of materiel for 20-25 days of warfare.

    Well…this is the WISH LIST of the Russian MIC…neither the ‘Storm’ aircraft carrier, nor the other big naval vessels mentioned here actually exist, nor have been greenlighted for production in the near future…much to the dismay of certain invested parties and individuals in Russia that would stand to greatly benefit from such a ridiculous spending spree…

    So to sum up here…there is nothing ‘shoestring’ about Russia’s operation in Syria…it is being conducted in an extremely effective and efficient manner and there are more than enough assets in place to repel any kind of attack…to believe otherwise is simply uninformed amateurism…

    The recent events, with the quick retaking of Saraqib and other fronts were the Turkish backed forces have been rolled back…plus the unambiguous statements from the Kremlin about continuing the operation until the terrorists are contained and the majority of the region is liberated make clear that there will be no gifting of territory to Turkey, especially the key M4 and M5 highways…

    The M5 has now been re-secured, and the SAA push from the south to take the remaining parts of M4 blocked by the Jihadists will continue…

    I also expect the SAA and allies to Idlib city itself, which will crush the terrorist factions in the regions once and for all…[it is in fact very near to Saraqib and that key junction of the M4 and M5…

  250. Talha says:
    @Robjil

    OK…so Israel basically has a carte blanche over Syrian airspace because – in the event the Russians could shoot them down – they wouldn’t do so anyway because they don’t want a fight with Israel because they might get nuked by Israel.

    Don’t know how that – in any way changes what I was saying (backing utu’s statement) about Russians helping maintain a status quo over Syria. This simply means what I stated before that – if Israel actually goes full-throttle on the Iranians in Syria, they can expect no help from Russian-run air defenses.

    I’m pretty sure if Iran had the technical capability, it would pull the trigger on violations. And THAT is exactly why they can’t be allowed in charge.

    Peace.

  251. Alfred says:
    @Oscar Peterson

    I don’t think the Russians would try to close Suez; I don’t think it would help them–and how could they do it anyway?

    Nothing could be simpler. Just announce publicly that any shipping trying to enter or exit the Suez Canal is at risk. Drop a few modern mines. Do you think any cargo ships would risk it? Would anyone insure them and their cargoes?

    In a similar way, the Iranians could close off the Persian Gulf anytime they wish. It is very easy. Reopening it to tankers is another matter entirely.

    they are entitled to do it under the provisions of the Montreux Convention

    You don’t understand. If the Russians can’t use it, no one else will be allowed to. NATO countries Bulgaria and Romania would cut off. Moldova and Ukraine would be stuffed. Don’t forget that there are rivers with considerable shipping – the Danube, Dnieper, Southern Bug, Dniester.

    Geography is on the side of Russia in this game. Why do you think the Americans were so keen to grab Crimea?

    • Replies: @Oscar Peterson
  252. FB says: • Website
    @Talha

    [Too much unnecessarily vulgar and crude language may get your comments trashed, causing all time and effort to be completely wasted.]

    An Israeli paper is admitting that Israel has carried out HUNDREDS of strikes in Syria over the last several years. Has there been one aircraft downed? Has one even been shot at?

    I guess this is what RETARDED AND CLUELESS looks like…

    On 10 February 2018, an Israeli F-16I was shot down by the Syrian air defenses after conducting an air raid on Iran-backed positions inside Syrian territory.

    February 2018 Israel–Syria incident

    Since that shootdown Israel has NOT flown into Syrian airspace, again debunking your massive diarrhea bursts here…

    Btw…where is your supposed ’embarrassment’ after being quickly PROVED a complete pinhead…?

    I see you here posting miles of print in the diarrhea dialect…not exactly the actions of an ’embarrassed’ individual…LOL

    • Replies: @Talha
  253. Talha says:
    @Anonymous

    that Putin was – ackchyually – working for Israel all this time?

    Nope – never said that. Read my comment again. And if you come to this same conclusion, read it again until you ackchyually understand what I was saying.

    Peace.

  254. Mike P says:

    Read my comment again. And if you come to this same conclusion, read it again until you ackchyually understand what I was saying.

    Cruel and unusual punishment.

    • Replies: @Talha
  255. Talha says:
    @FB

    On 10 February 2018, an Israeli F-16I was shot down by the Syrian air defenses

    Excellent – thanks for the reference!

    Since that shootdown Israel has NOT flown into Syrian airspace

    Not really – the bombing continued for a while after and was ended only when Putin gave a call to Netanyahu that it was enough:
    “Putin’s Phone Call With Netanyahu Put End to Israeli Strikes in Syria. Prior to Saturday call, senior Israeli officials were still taking a militant line and it seemed Jerusalem was considering further military action …The Russians are also concerned about the proximity of the Israeli bombings to sites where their soldiers and advisers are serving, including base T-4 near Palmyra, where the Iranian control post from which the anti-aircraft missile was fired was bombed. ”
    https://www.haaretz.com/middle-east-news/iran/putin-s-call-with-netanyahu-called-time-on-israel-s-syrian-strikes-1.5809118

    And it is to be noted that it was not Russians, but Iranians that pulled the trigger and brought the plane down – one more reason that Iran CANNOT be allowed to have primary control of Syrian air defenses.

    Furthermore, just this was from 2019 on a location well within Syrian territory near the Iraqi border (hell, they are attacking all the way into Iraq):
    “It was the latest in a series of unclaimed attacks inside Iraq and along the border with Syria targeting Iran-backed militias. Last week, unknown warplanes targeted an arms depot and Iranian-backed militia posts in Al Bukamal, killing at least 18 fighters. A Syrian security official said Israeli jets were behind Tuesday’s attack, but denied there were casualties. US officials confirmed Israel was behind at least one of the recent attacks inside Iraq.”
    https://www.aljazeera.com/news/2019/09/10-iran-backed-fighters-reportedly-killed-syria-attack-190917152557548.html

    In fact, in September of 2018, F-16s hit a few targets in Syria and an entire Russian plane was downed in the incident:
    “The Israeli military on Tuesday acknowledged conducting an airstrike against a Syrian weapons facility the night before and “expressed sorrow” for the deaths of 15 Russian soldiers, whose plane was shot down during the attack by Syrian air defenses. The highly irregular move came as Moscow fumed over the incident and threatened unspecified “measures,” saying it held Israel wholly responsible….The Israeli strike was conducted at approximately 10 p.m. by four F-16 fighter jets, according to the Russian military. Syrian air defenses opened fire at the incoming missiles, at the attacking aircraft and — according to Israel — at nothing in particular. The Russian Il-20 was shot down in the air battle, along with its 15-person crew.
    ‘The Syrian anti-air batteries fired indiscriminately and, from what we understand, did not bother to ensure that no Russian planes were in the air,’ the army said.”
    https://www.timesofisrael.com/in-rare-move-idf-admits-syria-strike-expresses-sorrow-over-russian-plane/

    So I guess Russia “held Israel wholly responsible” for the 15 crew death and threatened “unspecified ‘measures’” and “fumed” at them for a while. I’m pretty sure Israel thought about that long and hard and said – “bro, Syrians did it!” and walked away.

    So let’s see – hundreds of Israeli airstrikes into Syria. Exactly one F-16 downed and THAT done by an Iranian crew…yeah – I’m sure Israel is worried Putin is going to do some more unspecified fuming on them if they conduct a few hundred more.

    supposed ’embarrassment’

    Still waiting for developments through Thursday to see what the end result and final scorecard is. And – again – I may well be completely off the mark in my initial assessments, which would be embarrassing, but since I had already stated multiple times that I could very well be wrong, I’m not about to eat my hat or anything.

    Peace.

    • Replies: @FB
  256. FB says: • Website

    A quick heads up to a very solid update at Moon of Alabama [run by ‘B’ a former military officer…]

    After the confusion caused by the sudden stand down of Russian forces in Syria and the following Turkish drone attacks everything seems to be back to normal.

    Russian planes are again bombing Jihadis and Turkey has been told by Russia that none of its planes or drones will be safe within Syria’s sky.

    The Pentagon announced that it will not provide air support to Turkey. It will also not send any Patriot air defense to Syria but President Trump promised to ask other NATO countries to do so. They are likely to deny the request. It seems that Pentagon has won the fight with the State Department which supported the Turkish push for protection.

    As I had already mentioned right here, there are big resupply operations under way…

    During the last three days two Russian landing ships, which usually carry heavy weapons like tanks, passed through the Bosporus on their way to Syria. Eight Ilyushin Il-76 strategic airlifters landed at Hmeymim, Latakia during the past three days. These likely carry additional air defense systems or additional fighter planes.

    The resupply should silent any talk that Russia has given up on Syria.

    Yup…

    Erdogan wants Idleb but neither Syria nor Iran nor Russia will let him have it. President Putin will meet Erdogan during the next days and will make sure that the point is understood.

  257. Talha says:
    @Mike P

    Or you can ignore it – don’t really care either way. Some will understand what I’m saying and some will read into my words what they want (as they keep doing so). Not my problem.

    Peace.

    • Replies: @Mike P
  258. Robjil says:
    @Talha

    A Pax Syriana would be a good thing. A status quo like that is a good thing. Russia intervening created that for Syria.

    https://www.unusualtraveler.com/traveling-to-syria-everything-you-need-to-know-update-november-2018/

    It might sound strange, but Syria ready to receive foreign tourist once again. And here´s your complete guide about how you can travel to Syria as a tourist.

    Syria one of the most historical destinations in the world and one of the most popular travel destinations in the Middle East with 8.5 Million foreign tourists visiting Syria back in 2010, just one year before the civil war broke out in March 2011. (In comparison so did 6.6 million tourist visit Philippines 2017)

    • Replies: @Talha
  259. Mike P says:
    @Talha

    Hi Talha,

    it was meant as a joke. I do consider you both intelligent and well-intentioned and value your comments.

    Best, M.

    • Replies: @Talha
  260. Talha says:

    Moon of Alabama:

    After the confusion caused by the sudden STAND DOWN of Russian forces in Syria

    Assessment: very solid update by a former military officer

    Talha:

    that is the same calculation that I believe is running in Putin’s head right now and why he is having Russian forces STAND DOWN

    Assessment: ludicrous phrasing of our PINHEAD Sunni guest (…do you even know the meaning of the term ‘stand down’…? do you even lift diarrhea, bro?)

    Peace.

    • Replies: @FB
  261. We all hope in Europe and the West that RUSSIA will nuke ankara and the goatfucker erdogan and we all hope that in the process they will exterminate as much muslim turkish scum as they can…

    urks: nobody likes you, really nobody, even the Arabs don’t like you

  262. FB says: • Website
    @Talha

    You’re pathetic man…

    Is Russia ‘standing down’ now…?

    Let’s be crystal clear here…you were arguing that Russia would PERMANENTLY ‘stand down’…ie would simply get out of the way and let Turkey take whatever they want…go ahead and challenge that statement and I will bring up reams of your quotes on this thread…

    Well that permanent ‘stand down’ didn’t happen, did it…in fact the opposite…

    Now here you are trying to cut and paste snippets of that very unambiguous discussion and trying [desperately] to twist the character of that discussion completely…

    Sorry to tell you this but you are not that clever…in fact you are simply revealing yourself as the complete nothingburger you know you are…

    PS…I had already used that very same wording in my previous comment here…

    Putin may in fact have ‘stood down’ the Russian air force for a few hours…but this was clearly a good will gesture and an opportunity for Erdog to DEESCALATE…

    Like I observed already [and which everybody here agrees]…you’re a tiny, tiny man…with absolutely nothing to offer except an opportunity to observe a silly buffoon who thinks he is actually fooling people…

    As LK observed earlier in a response to you…

    Talha,

    Having read several of your posts for several years now, it is clear that you are a sectarian Sunni.

    You are sneaky and you do it in ways that are generally not so obvious, but it is clear to anybody paying attention.

    Yup…there seems to be a consensus here about you T-boy…so my suggestion is that you quite pretending you are anything but the laughingstock you know you are…

    • Replies: @Talha
  263. @FB

    FB,

    Just a quick recap here…things did not go well at all for 1,000 Nato warplanes…unlike the ‘satisfying’ experience against Iraq in 1991

    I’d say Iraq did far better in the First Gulf War against the US coalitions 2,250 combat aircraft than rump Yugoslavia against NATO in 1999. According to https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Gulf_War_air_campaign:

    The Coalition lost a total of 75 aircraft – 52 fixed-wing aircraft and 23 helicopters – during Desert Storm

    From what I remember, following the news at the time, after the loss of some 60+ aircraft just during the first week of the campaign, with many captured coalition pilots, the US announced that it would no longer report any further losses of aircraft during the campaign and indeed no news channel ever reported a single aircraft downed after that. I suspect that there could have been even more losses than what wikipedia reports as the war went on for another month.

    • Replies: @FB
    , @Wielgus
  264. Talha says:
    @Robjil

    A Pax Syriana would be a good thing. A status quo like that is a good thing. Russia intervening created that for Syria.

    A status quo like that is a good thing for Russia and much of the West (no more refugees, Syria maintains its European-defined borders, Israel gets a punching bag to the East, etc.). Part of the benefit is that, while allowing Israel to maintain its qualitative edge (by going to the US and asking for money to keep ahead of countries like Syria), Russia can sell arms* to the other side as well (negotiated within acceptability for Israel as far as quantity and quality) – and with its presence there, it can maintain control of those same assets (especially if they are the high quality ones) directly (under its own crews) in order to assure they are only used in furtherance of the status quo.

    Again, I think it’s a brilliant strategy – especially how it is being executed with mostly kebab on kebab violence (which seems to be fairly acceptable at this point – aw shucks, those crazy Mozlems at it again).

    I’m guessing at this pace, within 5 years, we will be back to initial status quo with Iran out of Syria (a major stated priority of the Israelis for 2020) and everything nice and peachy along those borders as it was before. I mean except a few hundred thousand dead kebabs in the intervening years and possibly US being in permanent control of Syrian oil fields – which also really doesn’t seem to bother the Russian status-quo arrangement all that much. It will be interesting to see who gets the contracts for the rebuilding.

    Again…straight-line borders have to be maintained:

    Peace

    *France and others as well; they make sure places like Egypt have a boatload of older models like Mirage 5, and only a couple dozen Rafales. Egypt is also allowed MiG-29s, but not Su-30s and the like (though a place like Algeria which is far enough away is allowed such).

    • Replies: @Robjil
  265. Talha says:
    @Mike P

    Ah OK – sorry man, my fault, my IFF radar signatures seemed to be glitching here.

    Peace.

  266. Talha says:
    @FB

    you were arguing that Russia would PERMANENTLY ‘stand down’

    I don’t recall using “permanent” at all. I did for sure assume that Russia would be fine with letting Turks bomb SAA until they were in full control of the Idlib region and then say; “OK guys, tut, tut, that’s enough.” So yeah – I was totally off the mark there, it’s pretty obvious the Russians are supporting SAA with jets in the air. This allowed SAA to green light attacks.

    It certainly looks like Russians are going after Turkish proxies fairly heavily…though I’m still not seeing tons of Turkish troops and equipment being lit up, so I’m still waiting for that.

    I keep up with this guy:

    It seems both sides are going to try to grab as much territory as possible in that region before the whistle blows on Thursday so they can declare a ceasefire and hold whatever territory they have. It also looks like Turkey and Russia are trying to avoid directly killing each other’s troops and trying to limit it to going after proxies.

    pathetic man…you are simply revealing yourself as the complete nothingburger you know you are…you’re a tiny, tiny man…with absolutely nothing to offer except an opportunity to observe a silly buffoon

    OK – no problems here. I guess the more I post, the better it is for your side. So, I’ll just keep doing that and you will keep benefiting – a big win, win for everyone!

    there seems to be a consensus here about you T-boy

    Uh OK…if you and LK form a consensus. Maybe it is a consensus of guys with two-letter handles.

    Peace.

  267. Robjil says:
    @Talha

    All borders are fake. Canada and the US have straight line borders too.

    The borders of Turkey were defined by Turks. They kicked out the Greeks in the 1920s who lived there for over three thousands years. A large part of ancient Greece was in Asia Minor. It was a great loss to human history for the Greeks to be kicked out of Asia Minor.

    The Armenians were also kicked out of a large part of their area in eastern Asia Minor. This was the Armenians land for at least three thousand or more years.

    Turks invaded Asia Minor in the 1000s. They finally took it all over in 1453 with the take over of Constantinople.

    The Turks are not doing any good by supporting USisraeli terrorism. It is hurting tourism and business in the Middle East. Turkey is no friend to its fellow Muslims.

    • Replies: @Talha
  268. FB says: • Website

    So what’s going on with the Turkish drones…?

    Well, now the Russians are using their aerial electronic warfare platforms to take these flying insects down…

    Tupolev Tu214R are flying sorties over Syria as of yesterday, Syria time…the Turkish drones are dropping out of the sky as soon as they cross the border…should have more info and confirmation as it becomes available…

    [It is not that difficult, with the proper equipment, to cut the comms link and make these remotely piloted vehicles lose control…]

    Meanwhile…Syrian Troops Advance West Of Saraqib Amid Lamentation And Weeping Of Al-Qaeda Supporters

    Erdogan’s short victorious war appeared to be a disaster for the Turkish military that demonstrated its inability to defeat the Syrian Army at a low cost.

    LOL

    Latest map…

  269. @Alfred

    Well, I think there’s a distinction to be made between Iran closing Hormuz which it is eminently well positioned to do and the Russians trying to get some of their few vessels intact to Port Said to position mines, which would in any case make an enemy of Sisi who has been quite well disposed to Russia.

    I don’t agree that geography favors Russia in connection to the straits, egress from the Black Sea and support to a hypothetical Russian war effort in Syria. Russia will be the one who needs to get out with great immediacy to support Syrian operations, and threats to Bulgaria and Romania will likely bring NATO and/or the US into the picture which would be what Erdogan wants anyway.

    • Replies: @Alfred
  270. Talha says:
    @Robjil

    Canada and the US have straight line borders too.

    Which they, themselves defined. How about if some bearded dudes carve this kind of thing out nice and neat:
    Looks so nice, so easy to draw, wouldn’t you agree?

    The borders of Turkey were defined by Turks.

    No, you’re simple side-stepping things like Sykes-Picot and other developments – don’t know why. And I’m talking about all of the Middle East, not just the border between Turkey and Syria. Syria itself has many unnatural, straight borders. Iraq as well; borders that cut right through entire tribes that have straddled both sides for over a thousand years. You want to explain Kuwait?

    Look, I get it, the Muslims screwed up and lost big time – often due to petty in-fighting – so they got carved up into acceptable and manageable statelets – and they totally deserved to take the ‘L’, stupidity has consequences. Makes total sense from a Western perspective wanting to maintain a status quo – it’s a good status quo for the West.

    They kicked out the Greeks in the 1920s who lived there for over three thousands years.

    Yup, pretty tragic – massive population exchanges at that time:
    “As part of the Treaty of Lausanne in 1923, Greece and Turkey agreed to uproot two million people in a massive population exchange, the lasting effects of which are still felt by some in both countries today.”
    https://www.aljazeera.com/programmes/aljazeeraworld/2018/02/great-population-exchange-turkey-greece-180220111122516.html

    Turks invaded Asia Minor in the 1000s.

    Uh yeah – and Westerners invaded North America and took it over. Are they going to give it back? No? Thought so.

    Turkey is no friend to its fellow Muslims.

    Thanks for your opinion, but that’s a ultimately an internal question; Muslims get to decide who is and is not our friend and based on which parameters and metrics.

    Peace.

    • Replies: @Robjil
    , @Robjil
    , @Avery
  271. FB says: • Website
    @Commentator Mike

    I’d say Iraq did far better in the First Gulf War against the US coalitions 2,250 combat aircraft than rump Yugoslavia against NATO in 1999.

    You’d be wrong…

    It’s not about number of planes downed, it’s about controlling the airspace…ie air superiority…

    In Desert Storm, the US quickly destroyed Iraq’s air defenses…that is recapped in the professional analysis by Lambeth I linked to earlier…

    That means US could fly uncontested in that airspace…

    As for the downed coalition aircraft, that wiki number also includes helos, friendly fire and such…plus the British RAF, which was tasked with the most difficult job of busting up the Iraqi airfields, paid a heavy price with downed Tornados…

    Iraq also had a considerable number of jet fighters, including the Mach 3-capable MiG25, and racked up some air to air kills…

    But all of that is beside the point…you absolutely cannot contest airspace with just fighter aircraft…that era is long past…

    The US and Nato campaign in Yugoslavia never came close to shutting down the air defenses…it was a draw…attacking aircraft had to fly high, and many lanes were closed off to them due to the persistent SAM threat…

    …in the face of an air campaign that at the end numbered over 1,000 aircraft, Serbian combat power remained substantially intact.

    The number of sorties generated by the NATO forces, particularly the United States Air Force, left them short of spare parts and munitions, required increased maintenance, and a force reduced in effective size due to the decreased fatigue life of many aircraft.

    This virtual attrition, with little relative destruction of the opposing forces, has shown that the Serbian military strategy was successful…

    Revisiting the Lessons of Kosovo; Dr Andrew Martin RAAF [retired]…

    • Thanks: Antiwar7
    • Replies: @Commentator Mike
  272. @Oscar Peterson

    Yes, they’ve got their new hypersonic missiles which are very potent and can be fired from over the Black Sea into the Med, but I wonder how big their arsenal of those is at this point.

    That brings to mind what may have been voiced in Germany in 1942 “I wonder how many tanks the Russians have?” They had no idea. It’s a bet I wouldn’t make.

    • LOL: NoseytheDuke
    • Replies: @Oscar Peterson
  273. FB says: • Website
    @Talha

    Look T-boy…

    I see it’s going to be impossible to counter the massive bullshit you are depositing here…

    You first came out and quacked that ZERO Israeli planes had ever been downed, or even targeted…then when I debunked that, you now come up with more crap…

    So let’s see – hundreds of Israeli airstrikes into Syria. Exactly one F-16 downed and THAT done by an Iranian crew…

    What Iranian SAM crew…?

    That is a complete fabrication…the F16 was brought down by a Syrian S200 shot…you will notice I always substantiate my facts with links, graphics etc…you never provide diddly squat…only your hollow assertions…backed up by lots of hot air…

    I said very CLEARLY already that since that downing the Israelis have not FLOWN into Syrian airspace…they are launching STANDOFF missiles from OUTSIDE Syrian airspace..

    BIG DIFFERENCE…

    This is clear to everybody who has read some of my comments here, so why do you persist in playing dumb…?

    Again, you are the sneaky Sunni fish peddler who thinks only about fooling people…but this is not a fish market…

    As for that Russian spyplane that was downed in fall 2018…the Israeli jets were flying in international airspace over the Med Sea, and launched STANDOFF missiles from OUTSIDE Syria…which then supposedly resulted in a Syrian S200 crew firing a missile shot that accidentally killed the Russian plane…

    I have debunked that story with a very thorough discussion of the TECHNICAL realities involved…another party must have brought that airplane down because that kind of ‘friendly fire’ incident would have been impossible according to the detailed data presented by the Russians [who were covering up here…]

    Anyway, that is neither here nor there as far as your constant bleating about the inconsequential Israeli strikes…most of which are intercepted, and which have had ZERO effect on the Syrian war effort…

    The fact that you simply keep pressing this button again makes you nothing more than a TROLL…

    And no matter how many times I have to step in and debunk your bullshit, you just come right back with more…

    Appeals to your self-respect have got nowhere, because you don’t have any…so I am respectfully asking you to just stop wasting my and other participants’ time here…the bulk of what you are spreading here [at least 90 percent] is simply bullshit…

    • Replies: @Talha
  274. Robjil says:
    @Talha

    I agree that it was mistake to invade North America and the Turks did the same mistake to Asia Minor.

    Why?

    The USisrael came about from the North America invasion. In the end. it was a terrible thing for the world. The entire world has been living in a Zion Theocracy nightmare since 12.23.1913 because of Zion control of ZUS.

    The Turks destroyed the ancient Greek cultures of Asia Minor. Greece, Rome, Egypt, China, India and Persia had the greatest ancient cultures. Go to any world museum, these cultures have given so much to the world. The US should be giving billions of dollars to study these great ancient cultures instead of that minor warmongering culture in Israel.

    • Agree: Alfred, Nonny Mouse
  275. Robjil says:
    @Talha

    These Sykes-Picot borders have nothing to do with Turkey supporting the USisraeli terrorists. Turkey is not trying to help any people gain “freedom” from these borders.

    Turkey is supporting USisraeli terrorism for its monetary interests or as lackey of USisrael.

    https://thegrayzone.com/2019/10/29/by-protecting-idlib-the-us-created-a-safe-haven-for-baghdadi-and-isis/

    Even as US officials acknowledged that Idlib was home to the largest faction of al-Qaeda fighters since 9/11, supporters of regime change and the US government itself fiercely protected the province, upholding it as the last rebel stronghold resisting the government of President Bashar al-Assad.

    • Replies: @Talha
  276. @Alfred

    I don’t really understand what US and Israeli domestic politics have to do with anything. Do you really think a Democratic administration or Labor government would be pursuing a very different ME policy?

    • Replies: @Alfred
  277. @Barr

    The RC church wasn’t “ineffective” in stopping mass immigration into Europe. That would imply that they tried to lessen it. They actively promoted and still promote and facilitate it.

  278. Talha says:
    @Robjil

    The USisrael came about from the North America invasion

    OK, that’s fine but if European people simply get to keep the continents they conquered and took over in the last few centuries (like Americas and Australia), I don’t see the reason to bring up Turkish conquest which is older; the Turks conquered Constantinople before Westerners were even in the Americas (minus maybe some Viking landings). I mean, if they’re not going to go back, why should the Turks?

    The Turks destroyed the ancient Greek cultures of Asia Minor.

    Not really. Turks are basically Anatolian peoples mixed in with conquering Central Asian steppe peoples:
    “Turks are Anatolian under the hood, somewhat more Greek than Armenian…In terms of drift the Turks seem about as far from Anatolian Greeks as Armenians. There’s the gene flow you’d expect, there are two from East Asians to Turks…They basically show what I’m saying above: Armenians and Anatolian Greeks are both good model sources for Turks. The likely truth is that there is gene flow from all across Anatolia into these Turkish samples.”
    https://www.gnxp.com/WordPress/2018/03/11/turks-are-anatolian-under-the-hood-somewhat-more-greek-than-armenian/

    Their conversion to Islam after conquest is basically like that of the Persian people – they didn’t switch ethnicity and become Arabs.

    Persia

    All of the Turkic groups that came through Persia adopted Persian culture; Ghaznavids, Seljuks, Ottomans, you name it.

    Go to any world museum, these cultures have given so much to the world. The US should be giving billions of dollars to study these great ancient cultures instead of that minor warmongering culture in Israel.

    Yup and yup.

    These Sykes-Picot borders have nothing to do with Turkey supporting the USisraeli terrorists.

    Absolutely correct, that is the short term detail – this will likely be resolved in 3-4 years if not sooner. I’m talking about the big picture, the larger narrative and why the status quo must be maintained and why European/Western nations (and Israel) are interested in maintaining it; it serves their various interests.

    Turkey is supporting USisraeli terrorism for its monetary interests or as lackey of USisrael.

    Well, I already said it was doing so for its own self-interests, so I’m just repeating myself here.

    Peace.

    • Replies: @Wielgus
    , @Robjil
  279. Avery says:
    @Talha

    {Uh yeah – and Westerners invaded North America and took it over. Are they going to give it back? No? Thought so.}

    There was no so-called ‘invasion’ by Europeans of North America.

    Europeans who landed here did not come here to exterminate the natives.
    They thought they were settling empty lands.
    Native Americans were here first: quite true.
    But the continent was largely empty.
    There were no cities. No sedentary civilizations.
    Native Americans were largely nomads – in their own lands.
    What happened subsequently is truly horrible for the Native Americans.
    Something like 80%-90% of them were killed off by the diseases brought by Europeans to which they had no immunity**.
    Natives were also subjected to massacres, forced migrations, loss of their bison herds (food supplies.)

    Today Natives are more or less protected (more in Canada).
    There is no danger that they will be exterminated.
    In US (and Canada) there is no official policy of denying what Europeans did to the Natives.
    The damage to the Natives was immense, but today non-Natives are doing what they can so Natives’ culture, their way of life is preserved.

    Nomadic Turkic tribes which invaded Asia Minor and the Caucasus invaded lands of sedentary, creative civilizations: Christian Armenians, Christian Assyrians, and Christian Pontic Greeks.
    There were cities, communities, life, commerce,…..
    The Asiatic savages destroyed everything.

    At least Europeans who landed in North America and displaced the Natives have given much to the world*. No need to list the 1,000s of things invented and developed here in the US, and which the entire developed world uses and benefits from.

    What have your favourite Turks given to the world other than death & destruction, massacres, mass murder, theft, arson , destruction, abduction and sexual enslavement of Christian children, rape of Christian children,…..Genocide?
    Turks deny it all: today there are conducting a well organized worldwide campaign of Denial.

    Everything so-called Turkish was stolen or misappropriated by the nomad Turks from Iranians/Persians, Armenians, Greeks, Assyrians,…..
    Did you know the modern Latinized Turkish alphabet was created by an Armenian (asked to by Mestafa Kemal. Nomad Turks were using Arabic script prior to that).

    Half the world would run, swim, fly….to America if US opened the gates.
    How many Pakistanis are desperate to go to where your favourite Turks are presently squatting?

    And you are comparing Europeans in N.A. to the Asiatic nomad Turks?
    Give me a break.

    __________________________
    * Yeah, yeah: I know all about the US warmongering and the death and destruction.
    I have written beaucoup posts about it
    Different subject: some other time.

    • Replies: @Talha
    , @Showmethereal
  280. @FB

    Okay…so your rebuttal about the ‘shoestring’ nature of Russian forces in Syria is backed up by nothing…

    I have no idea what you mean by “rebuttal.” You basically asked me what I meant by “shoe string” so I explained my thinking. The Russian effort has been an economy of force operation from the start. It has accomplished a good deal with relatively little, but that means there is not much excess capacity on hand, which, as I said, constitutes a vulnerability. Whether Turkey ultimately attempts to exploit that vulnerability is another matter.

    Reference the Khodarenok article, the author correctly highlights the massive local disparity in ground forces and other assets, and he also specifically cites the potential closure of the Black Sea straits. Your lengthy response above focused to a great extent on the Russian capability, as you see it, to deploy a large increment of air power without much difficulty by using Armenia, but you didn’t address the logistical question at all. Re-supply (and additional forces in the event of an escalation) mostly has to go by sea.

    And while the bit about the carrier battle group at the end of the piece may indeed be some sort of MIC propaganda, it seemed to me entirely secondary in a piece that is talking mostly about short term strategic and operational scenarios.

    In regard to the developing tactical situation, I agree that it looks good for the SAA and the Russians with the M5 having been re-secured.

    I think an escalation by Erdogan that included the cutting of the Russian logistics artery, might well produce the negative outcome for Russia that Khodarenok hypothesizes. But Erdogan, gauging his isolation, the domestic political opposition, the state of the Turkish economy, the impact of a cut-off of Russian energy and the potential cost, may instead back away. Presumably, his decision will be clarified following the Moscow meeting on the 5th.

  281. @NoseytheDuke

    Well, I don’t view an attempt to close the Suez Canal by Russia in connection with the scenario we were discussing–Turkish closure of the Straits–as remotely likely. But I agree that it certainly doesn’t do to underestimate Russia’s Kinzhal capability.

    • Agree: NoseytheDuke
  282. Talha says:
    @Avery

    The Asiatic savages destroyed everything.

    Uh no – but that’s fine if you want to be hyperbolic. But you’re Armenian so that’s to be expected. You have a beef against the Turks (understandably) and you’ll never see them in any other light than a negative one – which is fine, no problems.

    As I showed, the current Turks are genetically Anatolian people with some Central Asian admixture.

    What have your favourite Turks given to the world other than death & destruction

    Turks need not have given a single thing. In the age of empires, there was no need of justification for invasion and conquest – only that you could do it. Same with the Germanic tribes and their conquest of Rome, same with Mongols and their conquest of Persia and China. There is a great lesson to be learned by this; never, ever let your civilization sit on its laurels and become a hyper-nerd society that over-values intellectual endeavors and forgets how important it is to retain a martial culture. When Mongol hordes come screaming down at you from the hills in the thousands and burn down your libraries in between raping your women, you’ll know that you need less nerds and more men who know how to wield violence as if it is second nature. The Persians that got rolled over by the Mongols and had their cities burned to the ground were also the ones that had the high culture of the time, Baghdad being one of the most advanced cities on the planet. Had they had men around that could fight like the original Arabs that conquered that land, it would have been towers of Mongol heads being piled up outside the city gates instead of Persian ones inside.

    This is basic Ibn Khaldun 101.

    Everything so-called Turkish was stolen or misappropriated by the nomad Turks from Iranians/Persians, Armenians, Greeks, Assyrians,…..

    Likely, most nomadic peoples didn’t even have a written language. And as I said, they readily adopted Persian culture (like everyone else who conquered them).

    How many Pakistanis are desperate to go to where your favourite Turks are presently squatting?

    Not too many. Yes, I agree more people want to come to the US than Turkey. If that make you feel better, that’s great. How is that relevant (or even if more people want to move to Thailand than Turkey) to the discussion at hand? OK, I’m pretty sure many people here will agree with you and say that Turks are the armpit race of the world. Cool – now what?

    And you are comparing Europeans in N.A. to the Asiatic nomad Turks?

    No, I was comparing their conquests of land (not their scientific achievements) and no it’s not the same; the Europeans took over far, far more territory and were much more advanced (industrial capabilities in cannons and rifles as compared to bows and arrows and spears) and numerous than the people they conquered; the Turks had some level of parity with their foes and were often outnumbered at battles.

    Peace.

    • Replies: @Lo
  283. Talha says:
    @FB

    You first came out and quacked that ZERO Israeli planes had ever been downed, or even targeted…

    Nope. I asked the question because I had never heard of one being downed…not surprising since only one has been downed over all these years.

    What Iranian SAM crew…?

    Well I have to admit, I thought it was an Iranian crew because I read it was a joint operation, but it may well just have been a Syrian crew working with the Iranians – though it certainly doesn’t seem to have been a Russian crew (though the cost seems to have been quite high):
    “The downing of an Israeli F-16 fighter jet over the weekend appears to have been part of a pre-planned “bait and trap” operation by the Assad regime and Iran’s Revolutionary Guard Corps (IRGC)….The shooting down of an Israeli jet in a joint Syrian-Iranian attack was a major escalation, but Israel’s response was arguably even more significant….Second, the regime has now effectively lost its own independent air defense network and is now totally reliant on Russia—a country that has consistently not interceded against either the U.S. or Israel.
    https://www.mei.edu/publications/monday-briefing-syrian-iranian-downing-israeli-fighter-jet

    Seems to be a pattern that upsets Iran:
    “Russia Didn’t Shoot Back When Israeli F-16s Blew up a Syrian Military Complex…In February 2019, satellite photos revealed at least three S-300 systems in Masyaf apparently in operational condition. However, the S-300 battery did not attempt to shoot down the incoming missiles on April 13. The defensive fire on April 13 instead likely came from short-range Pantsir-S1 or Tor-M1 air defense systems. Syrian state news sources claimed the S-300 crews had not yet completed their training….However, the S-300’s silence may reflect a new understanding reached between Putin and Israeli prime minister Benjamin Netanyahu, who won reelection just a week prior to the strike. Apparently, the latter agreed to provide fifteen minutes of advance notice of strikes to Russian forces. Conflict analysis website T-Intelligence argued ‘The fact that the Syrian-operated SA-20B remained idle during last night’s IAF operation confirms that the use of the SAM system requires Russian approval. As expected, the Kremlin seems unwilling to authorize SAM attacks on IAF aircraft to protect Iranian assets.‘ Debka later reported that a ‘Syrian military source’ angrily criticized Russia for permitting the strike. ‘Russia may disapprove of the Israeli air strikes in Syria, but they will not intervene to stop them as they currently have an agreement with the Netanyahu administration.‘”
    https://nationalinterest.org/blog/buzz/russia-didnt-shoot-back-when-israeli-f-16s-blew-syrian-military-complex-67107

    And last September:
    “The commander of the Islamic Republic of Iran’s Air Force, Brigadier General Farzad Ismaili, was fired in May by the country’s Supreme Leader, Ayatollah Khamenei, after he concealed violations of Iranian airspace by Israeli Air Force F-35 stealth fighter jets…One of the sources cited said that Iran’s air defence system, as well as its Russian S-300 anti-missile system, failed to detect the Israeli fighter jets entering and leaving Iranian airspace…Following the reports about the F-35s and the ease with which they penetrated Iranian airspace, Khamenei also now suspects possible cooperation between Russia and Israel, particularly a scenario in which the Russians gave Israel the secret code to access the S-300 radars within Iran.”
    https://www.middleeastmonitor.com/20190902-irans-air-force-chief-fired-for-israeli-jets-undetected-violation-of-airspace/

    All of this is not surprising of course when one realizes that Russian control of the defense of Syria is the preferable status-quo option – to the European/West + Israel mutual understanding – as opposed to the absolutely unacceptable one of Iran. Removing Iran from the picture is the long term strategy (something that needed containment once the civil war had started and Iran and Hezbollah became involved as the main patrons of Syrian defense) and part of why Russia is there:
    “Maher al-Assad is finding himself in direct confrontation with Russian efforts that aim to clip his wings militarily. So far, it seems that they have succeeded in curbing his influence, which had been continuously growing before. What is happening to Maher cannot be separated from Russian-Iranian competition, which reflects the Assad regime’s fragility.
    Russia is trying to diminish Maher’s influence, which is tied to his close relations with Iran. The report also presents an aspect of the conflicts occurring inside the Assad family, the roots of which extend back four decades, and which could push Maher to pursue similar behaviors with his brother, as those that were taken by Rifaat al-Assad with Hafez.
    Russian forces began their moves against Maher’s influence in a significant way in the last quarter of 2018, carrying out a widescale operation to purge regime military institutions of members loyal to Iran led by Maher al-Assad.
    https://syrianobserver.com/EN/features/49024/russia-curbs-maher-al-assads-influence.html

    And of course, the Soleimani (who was Iran’s chief architect of regional influence with no serious or suitable replacement) killing probably took the last cog in the wheel out of the way:
    “…one pragmatic global player stands to gain from the death of Soleimani: Russian president Vladimir Putin. For him, this latest US blunder provides an opportunity to further penetrate the region…Putin’s apprehensions over Iran’s campaign to dominate Damascus by strategically embedding its network of militias, commanders, and businessmen led to Russian attempts to purge Iranian influence from the institutions of the Syrian state. This intra-alliance rivalry was on full display by early 2019, when Putin began accelerating campaigns to restructure the Syrian regime’s military and security apparatus. He even went as far as to sponsor warlord Suhail al-Hasan’s* Tiger Forces against Maher al-Assad, Bashar’s younger brother and leader of the Syrian military’s elite Republican Guard unit. Maher’s perceived proximity to Iran prompted Putin to instigate efforts to dislodge him as part of a wider process to forge a centralised and cohesive Syrian state over which Russia could preside as the uncontested patron.”
    https://www.alaraby.co.uk/english/comment/2020/1/31/how-putin-stands-to-gain-a-month-after-soleimani

    This, of course, following a very well-tried (mostly by the British and French) model of ensconcing a minority elite (in this case, Alawis) in charge which are highly dependent on their patronage and security/stability from an external military power and NOT a regional Muslim one. The Russians seem to be positioning themselves to get high mileage out of this model as well in order to fit in with the suitable status quo that delivers best dividends for Russia. All I can say is; well played, Mr. Putin, well played indeed.

    they are launching STANDOFF missiles from OUTSIDE Syrian airspace..

    OK, but then why did Syria state that it spotted Israeli jets over Damascus just recently?:
    “The Israeli announcement came shortly after Syrian state media said its air defenses had intercepted ‘hostile targets’ over the Syrian capital, Damascus…Shortly before midnight on Sunday, the Syrian state news agency SANA quoted a military source saying that Israeli planes had entered Syrian airspace and targeted areas around Damascus with a wave of guided missiles.”
    https://www.reuters.com/article/us-israel-palestinians-violence-idUSKCN20H0C1

    and which have had ZERO effect on the Syrian war effort…

    Likely, since the primary intent is to dislodge Iranian and Hezbollah influence.

    so I am respectfully asking you to just stop wasting my and other participants’ time here

    No problem, but you responded to me first…you can stop this at anytime yourself by not responding further. Ball’s in your court, chief.

    Peace.

    * This can be seen as the man (Suhail al-Hasan is known to always be with Russian Special Ops security detail since Syrian one cannot be trusted due to internal fissures):

    • Replies: @utu
    , @FB
  284. Smith says:

    The UN is telling Greek authority that greeks have no “legal basis” to close the borders, in the middle of a goddamn pandemic (that the WHO for some reasons cannot declare).

    Mask off everyone, the UN is now supporting white genocide for real.

    • Agree: Beefcake the Mighty
  285. Pat Lang at his Sic Semper Tyrannis blog has a good rundown and analysis of the ongoing Syria operations.

    He highlights the weakness in both SAA and jihadi infantry.

    His bottom line and prediction:

    The Russians are rapidly replacing the SAA’s battlefield losses in equipment and are not withholding air support to the SAA. Neither Moscow nor Damascus are impressed by Erdogan’s latest histrionics. Trump and the DoD has said no dice to Erdogan’s request for help. It does appear that Pompeo is still trying to drum up some kind of support for “our staunch NATO ally.”

    I predict the R+6 will secure both the M4 and M5 in the coming weeks, but will leave Idlib city for another day. They have to let the Turkish frog boil a little longer before he will accept the fact that Idlib is a Syrian city without throwing another hissy fit. He’ll also have to figure out what he’s going to do with all those jihadi friends of his. Libya isn’t going his way, either.

    https://turcopolier.typepad.com/sic_semper_tyrannis/2020/03/some-thoughts-on-idlib-dawn-ttg.html

  286. utu says:
    @Talha

    Very interesting!

    • Replies: @Talha
    , @Anon
  287. Wielgus says:
    @Commentator Mike

    My recollection is quite a few aircraft being downed by Iraqi AA, and I was working for a media organisation at the time. Iraq’s AA was the most effective part of its armed forces in 1991.

  288. Wielgus says:

    Wikipedia claims the Iraqi AA was surprisingly ineffective with 75 Coalition losses, in view of the number of sorties flown. It seems like spin to me. My recollection is a lot of planes going down and aircrew who successfully ejected and were captured “confessing” on Iraqi TV, notably ones from places like Egypt or Italy. This kind of thing seems to have been dropped down the memory hole, along with the sometimes less than dignified bearing of Americans briefly captured by the Iraqis in 2003. Certainly no part of the Iraqi armed forces did better in 1991.

    • Agree: Commentator Mike
  289. @FB

    FB,

    It’s not about number of planes downed, it’s about controlling the airspace…ie air superiority…

    During Gulf War I the US, with its coalition, was able to achieve that air superiority precisely because it took the risk of having its planes downed. NATO in its air war against rump Yugoslavia was not prepared to take that risk.

    In the first war against Iraq, US needed to control the air space because it had to eliminate Scud launching sites as the Iraqi modified/improved Scuds were raining with precision on targets from Saudi Arabia to Israel, and also to eliminate Iraqi air defences so as to able to impose the no-fly zones in southern and northern Iraq, which together with a further 12 years of sanctions enabled the US and its coalition to easily invade Iraq in 2003 with little resistance. Well, fairly easily, with some moderate resistance.

  290. Wielgus says:
    @Talha

    Greeks are more likely to be blonde but a lot of Greeks and Turks look like one another, in my personal experience. I once made a joke that Greeks are Christian Turks and Turks are Muslim Greeks.

    • Agree: Talha
  291. Alfred says:
    @Oscar Peterson

    Russians trying to get some of their few vessels intact to Port Said to position mines

    Things have progressed somewhat since WW2. Here are some of the features of modern sea mines:

    1- They are stealthy – a lot more difficult to locate than stealth submarines.

    2- They are programmed. They can let the escort pass and wait for the aircraft carrier. Or any such combination.

    3- They are mobile and can rise or advance towards their target.

    4- They have IFF and can allow friendly ships to pass

    5- They can be dropped by air or by submarine.

    The US Navy is woefully underequipped in mine clearers. For decades they spent their funds on their favourite – carrier strike groups. They never thought that they would be on the defensive.

    Here is a bit of flagwaving by Popular Mechanics. The same people who explained that on 9/11 three huge buildings were blown up by 2 flimsy aircraft with a skin that is 0.8mm thick aluminium. 🙂

    The U.S. Navy’s Mine-Hunting Drone Is Ready To Go

    threats to Bulgaria and Romania will likely bring NATO and/or the US into the picture

    I never mentioned any threats. They would get their lifeline to the Mediterranean cut off – they would suffer the same as the Russians, Ukrainians, Georgians and so on. It seems eminently reasonable and justifiable to me.

    What you don’t seem to understand is that it only takes a warning by the Russians for all commerce to stop. They don’t even have to lay any mines. No captain would risk it and certainly no insurance company would insure him.

    • Thanks: Oscar Peterson
  292. Alfred says:
    @Beefcake the Mighty

    Do you really think a Democratic administration or Labor government would be pursuing a very different ME policy?

    That is not what I said. I made it clear that the objectives of Trump and Netanyahu are short term. They are thinking of their jobs and how to get reelected. The objectives of Russia are strategic and much longer term.

    Sometimes, to attain long-term objectives, it is necessary to make short-term sacrifices. That is what the Russians are doing.

    By going to college to study “gender”, you are certain to have much more fun and screw more girls. However, your future is more clouded than that of a student of medicine who spent his evenings studying. 🙂

    • Replies: @Beefcake the Mighty
  293. Robjil says:
    @Talha

    I agree that most Turks are converted Greeks, Armenians or Kurds. It was an cultural invasion. It is sad that Turks don’t identify with most of their ancestors at all.

    They identify with only with a tiny faction of their ancestors, the Central Asians.

    Persians also were converted to Islam yet they identify with their pre-Islamic ancestors. There is continuity there. In Turkey, there is no continuity. Turks are taught to think they came out a box from Central Asia. This confusion causes Turkish culture be like American, easily manipulated to do things that are not good for humanity. American culture came from many different peoples, yet it does the same thing in its MSM. In the US case, MSM pushes the Zion card. Oh, poor Zion suffered so much, we must help Israel over and over again.

    Biden says he is a Zionist, even though he isn’t Jewish. Our Zion MSM loves this, no complaint. The US can be manipulated like the Turks because they don’t respect their ancestors. The US is living in a Zion Theocracy. The Turks are helping the US to continue this madness by supporting USisraeli terrorism that is destroying the Middle East and Europe – by people fleeing these wars and regime changes.

    The support for USisraeli terrorism is an example of this confusion in action. It all comes from the Turks not respecting a great part of their ancestors.

    • Replies: @Talha
  294. @Talha

    If Turkey hadnt been supporting jihadists from Central Asia all the way to Xinjiang in China to transit through Turkey to try to overthrow Assad – then Turkey wouldnt have a refugee problem in the first place.

    • Replies: @Talha
  295. @Alfred

    Whatever point you’re trying to make, you’re not doing a very good job.

  296. Talha says:
    @Robjil

    It is sad that Turks don’t identify with most of their ancestors at all.

    Yeah, well the modern “Turk” identity is a mess that we can blame Ataturk for; he helped forge whatever identity Turks now have. Part of the “de-Greekification” of the Turkish identity may be linked to him using it as a tool in galvanizing Turkish population in pushing out the Greeks (supported by various European powers) in the war for independence.

    Peace.

  297. Talha says:
    @Showmethereal

    If Turkey hadnt been supporting jihadists

    Lots of countries were supporting those same jihadists; from the Gulf Arab countries to the US to the UK. The only issue is, due to proximity, the Turks are left holding the bag. Nobody wants to take responsibility for this mess.

    Do you see Poland – who sent in special forces as part of the initial coalition in the Iraq invasion – taking ANY ownership for what they did and the chaos they caused in the region? No, because they get to sit back and watch the mess and misery they helped initiate from a thousand miles away and multiple borders between them and wash their hands of the whole thing.

    While I completely don’t agree with Turkey setting thousands of refugees to flood Europe as a political tool and think it is a deplorable move to use desperate human beings in that way – I one hundred percent support them saying “UP YOURS” to all the smug Europeans and Westerners chiding them who were involved in kicking this enormous SNAFU off since 2003 (whether they sent soldiers to serve in the invasion or as occupation troops) and especially those who on top of that learned nothing and kept messing around further in the Middle East:

    Peace.

    • Replies: @Showmethereal
  298. Talha says:
    @utu

    Indeed. The timeline and calculus is there once you step back and look at the full picture.

    Remember “Independent Kurdistan”? Well, that was going to be Israel’s ally right next to Iran for surveillance and other concerns:
    “So far, Israel has been the only state to support the Kurdish secession from Iraq…Israel’s support for an independent Kurdish state is solely motivated by geopolitical reasons. Israel wants to secure the flow of oil supplies from the Kurdish Autonomous Region, but more importantly, it wants to build a pro-Israeli entity that cuts through the Arab World. Israel already imports 77 percent of its oil supplies from Iraq’s Kurdish region. These imports are extremely important for the Zionist state, as it does not have access to the natural resources of oil-rich Gulf states. Also, Israel believes that an independent Kurdish state can serve as a potential foothold for the Israeli military and intelligence, giving the country leverage against Iran, Syria and Iraq. The creation of an independent Kurdish state in the Middle East fits perfectly into Oded Yion’s 1982 plan for the Middle East…”
    https://www.aljazeera.com/indepth/opinion/israel-supporting-kurdish-secession-iraq-171006105039473.html

    But that was going to be too tough; the Turks were going to go to war over it and the Iraqis and Syrians and Iranians were all going to pile on – too much trouble.

    So we switch to the status quo arrangement. This allowed Kurds to be dropped as plan A and allowed their reintegration with Syria. Because the status quo arrangement, with the Russians, allows a few important things right off the bat:
    1. If Russia controls Syrian airspace, then Israelis can arrange for its aircraft passing over Syrian territory instead of going over Jordan and then much of Iraq – rather, they go through Syria and then directly over Kurdish territory.
    2. If Syria could not be fractured (plan A), then status quo is good enough if the Shiah Crescent is neutered – as you can see by Russia allowing attacks on Hezbollah and Iranian assets without response. Take note, Russia has actually pushed back sometimes and asked Israel to call off some sorties, but there is a discussion as to what is allowed and what is not. Like the ballistic missile research facilities that were hit in the article I cited. Remember what FB said; “which have had ZERO effect on the Syrian war effort” and this is correct. Russia does not want Israel to necessary fire at will on all Syrian military assets, they just want to allow (as per arrangements) the hits on whatever dismantles the Hezbollah-Iranian network or that which may be used – not in an anti-insurgency campaign – but on some sort of attack on Israel.
    3. With Russians elbowing out Iran for influence in the military structure, it allows them to work with people who see Iran and Hezbollah’s presence and networks as a liability and help them move up the ranks. This is key because Syria is the main conduit by which Hezbollah is supplied in Lebanon by Iranian arms. In fact, Russia can both simply allow Israel to destroy these shipments at will and even pass along any info and look the other way.

    The above achieve, more or less, much of what plan A was supposed to, but with compromises; Syrian territorial integrity, which Israel can live with as much as it can with full Jordanian territorial sovereignty. Straight lines. As long as Russia can reliably guarantee that their nightmare scenario is held off.

    Peace.

    • Replies: @Mike P
  299. FB says: • Website
    @Talha

    Ok…so you’ve deposited here yet another massive farrago of bullshit…

    Not only that, but the ‘sources’ you provide are a smorgasbord of NEOCON propaganda outlets…

    Let’s start with the Syrian downing of the F16 back in 2018…recapping briefly here the discussion to this point…

    You now claim ‘nope,’ you didn’t actually ‘state’ that Syria never shot down any Israeli fighter jets…you simply ‘didn’t know’…

    So you admit being an ignoramus, who decides to flood this forum with bullshit before adequately informing his threadbare ass…

    Then when the downing of the Israeli jet is presented, you make another bullshit claim about the downing being carried out by an ‘Iranian crew’…your exact words…

    So when that piece of bullshit is called out…you come back and say again ‘I didn’t know’…

    How long is this going to keep up…when are you going to actually KNOW some facts before you decide to hit the post button…?

    But it doesn’t stop there…now you want to present Israeli neocon propaganda about how, after that F16 downing, the Israelis allegedly wiped out half of Syria’s air defense systems…we’ll get to looking more closely at the Israeli neocon agit-prop outlet that you linked to in a minute…

    But the simple fact is that ZERO Syrian air defense systems were hit by Israel in that supposed retaliation…

    The simple reason is that the only way to take out a SAM [surface to air missile launcher] is to target its radars with special missiles that home in on the radio signals coming from the SAM radars…these are called anti-radiation missiles and the US made AGM88 missile that Israel uses has an inadequate range to reach those targets in Syria that were claimed to be hit…only a few tens of kilometers…

    But you wouldn’t know that, since you don’t actually know anything [by your own admission]…so you choose instead to present here a bullshit narrative from a notorious Israeli neocon stink tank that simply makes these hollow assertions [which are simply a regurgitation of the claims Israel made in the wake of its jet being shot down…and you know, Israel never lies, right T-boy…?]

    [Just for real world context here, the Nato forces bombing Serbia in 1999 fired over 700 such AGM88 missiles at Serb air defenses, but managed to knock out only three Serb batteries, in the space of an air campaign that lasted nearly three months and involving 1,000 US and Nato aircraft, see my link to Dr Lambeth’s analysis in the USAF Aerospace Power Journal…but we are supposed to believe that Israel with something like a dozen jets, firing from long range outside Syrian airspace was able to take out DOZENS of Syrian SAMS in the space of a few hours…?]

    Yeah…no, PINHEAD…that bedtime story only exists in the feeble minds of those that are in the Israeli neocon camp…as we will now see when we look at your source for this…

    Syrian air defense takes a hard blow

    According to IAF officials, roughly 50 percent of Syria’s entire air defense network was destroyed, dealing a catastrophic blow to the regime’s already limited ability to defend itself from air attack.

    Now this very ‘convincing’ narrative penned by one Charles Lister…who holds an MA [LOL] in ‘international relations’…some real military-technical expertise there, no doubt…

    Now the outfit he works for…the DC stinktank Middle East Institute, which just happens to be funded by Saudi Arabia, the UAE and various pro-war and neocon-aligned outfits like the Rockefeller Foundation and big defense contractors…

    You can see info for the last several years on the Middle East Institute’s own website here…

    The Middle East Institute, an influential Washington, D.C.-based think tank that has enthusiastically pushed for U.S. wars and military intervention in the Middle East, has received tens of millions of dollars from authoritarian Gulf regimes.

    Chock-full of former U.S. government officials, the Middle East Institute has been one of the leading voices in Washington defending the joint U.S.-Gulf war on Yemen, which has created the worst humanitarian crisis on the planet, killing thousands and pushing millions of civilians to the brink of famine.

    That’s real nice there T-boy…Allahu Akbar…the Israeli plus neocon plus Sunni extremist JOINT PROJECT to keep the US in perpetual Middle East wars for Israel and Wahhabism…

    The above excerpt from a 2017 piece in Salon by Ben Norton…headlined

    Gerald Feierstein, a Gulf-funded expert pushing catastrophic war on Yemen, appears to have lied to Congress

    More reading material that shines a light on the kind of ‘sources’ T-boy wants us to swallow…

    Gulf Government Gave Secret $20 Million Gift To D.C. Think Tank; The Intercept, 2017

    The outsized contribution, which the UAE hoped to conceal, would allow the institute, according to the agreement, to ‘augment its scholar roster with world class experts in order to counter the more egregious misperceptions about the region, inform U.S. government policy makers, and convene regional leaders for discreet dialogue on pressing issues.’

    Heck even the Washington Post got in on the bashing of the so-called ‘Middle East Institute’ after the Saudi murder of Kashoggi…

    Inside the Saudis’ Washington influence machine: How the kingdom gained power through fierce lobbying and charm offensives

    Which one is you in this picture, T-boy…?…[or are you huddled, unseen, underneath those flowing robes, performing your religious duty…?]

    So much for your ‘sources’…and your self-styled ‘credibility’…

    Now it is no secret of course that the Jewish State and Saudi plus UAE are in a de facto unholy union…the purpose of which is to perpetuate US wars in the Middle East [not least of which against Syria], but also Yemen, Iran and just about anybody else that needs to be taken down for the benefit of Israel…

    So…here is our little T-boy…thinking that we just fell off the turnip cart and are too stupid to connect the dots…

    Wrong, my little Wahhabist turd-kicker…it is you who have exposed yourself completely here…showing yourself as the Israel-aligned Sunni extremist you have always been…

    Moreover, your abject stupidity is quite breathtaking…do you really think you can spout Israeli propaganda here and link to hardcore Zionist-Wahhabi mouthpieces and not reveal yourself…?

    Like I have said already, you are not nearly as clever as you imagine yourself to be…and you have just proved my point…

    Allahu Akbar…

    • Replies: @FB
    , @Talha
  300. Mike P says:
    @Talha

    The scenario you describe seems pretty fragile, though – a delicate balance, not the sort of thing anyone would want to bet their security on long-term. It also seems to me that you underrate Iran. Their missile strike on the U.S. forces in Iraq, and even more the subsequent stand-down of the U.S., indicates a real shift in the power calculus. If Iran acquiesces to Russia’s strategy in Syria, it is not simply due to weakness.

    It appears that everyone is merely playing for time; Russia and Iran because they feel it is on their side, as the U.S. continue their self-inflicted yet seemingly unstoppable decline, and Israel because it has no better ideas – other than perhaps new and improved means of terrorism.

    • Replies: @Talha
  301. FB says: • Website
    @FB

    Correction…the link to the WaPo article is here…

  302. @FB

    I am no expert so I have questions on this. How do they target drones? The Saudis didva poor job against the Houthi ones . i read an article stating NATO had drills to use drones to evade S400 – which is was Turkey did. How valid is that?

    • Replies: @FB
    , @Lo
  303. Talha says:
    @FB

    OK great so you don’t like the MEI institute which was just one source I cited. And you claim that zero sites were hit in those F-16 strikes and Israel totally missed everything, OK. I’m cool with that.

    But that was just one source I used and only one point, and I really have no big quibble with that, if you say Israel hit nothing, totally fine.

    I also cited a Reuters article that clearly stated that recently Syria official media stated they detected Israeli jets over Damascus.

    And the rest of my points were really about the larger picture of Russia playing its version of the great game in Syria, coordinating within Syrian military command to reduce Iranian influence and having an understanding with Israel allowing it help reduce that mutual nuisance by eliminating Hezbollah and Iranians assets on the ground.

    Jewish State and Saudi plus UAE are in a de facto unholy union

    Yup.

    and just about anybody else that needs to be taken down for the benefit of Israel…

    Yup and Russia is working within that reality for its own benefit in achieving an acceptable status quo:
    “Russia: Attack on Saudi oil facilities will ‘only unite’ Russia and Arab states – Putin…
    We consider Saudi Arabia as a friendly nation. I am on good terms with the King, and with the Crown Prince,’ explained Putin, noting, that relations between countries are developing ‘almost in all areas.’
    Commenting on the attack on Saudi oil facilities, Putin said that such things could not ‘affect the relationship between Russia and our Arab friends – Saudi Arabia, the United Arab Emirates’ within the “OPEC+”. ‘Our goal is to stabilize the situation* on world energy markets,’ added Russian leader.”

    Israel-aligned Sunni extremist you have always been…

    Uh…’K, if you say so.

    Peace.

    *Translation: Maintain status quo.

    • Replies: @FB
  304. Lo says:
    @Talha

    Likely, most nomadic peoples didn’t even have a written language. And as I said, they readily adopted Persian culture (like everyone else who conquered them).

    This is false. Turks had runic script, probably before 500BC. The idea that all nomads were just nomads all year around is also misleading. For many white / asian nomads, it was a deliberate choice as China had number advantage. If it wasn’t for this political choice China would extend far beyond its borders today as they would easily overwhelm less numerous Turks and Mongols.

    Having said that, it is pointless to discuss anything about Turks with Avery since he is Armenian and genocide is a matter of identity and empty faith for them. If Jesus descended to the world and told Avery that there was no genocide and Turks aren’t half as bad as he believes, he would quickly convert Judaism.

    • Agree: L.K
  305. @Milton

    Dont leave the Uighurs out of the equation. The Syrians said they were the fiercest fighters in Idlib. That is the main reason they are upset about the Chinese crackdown in Xinjiang… It stems the flow of jihadists. Notice Edrogan is the only Muslim leader to speak against China on the matter. He “needs” those fighters.
    Remember the US caught some in Afghanistan and held them at Guanatanmo and then let them go. They had to have made a deal…. I wonder how many of them are the ones in Syria…

  306. Lo says:

    Russians talk too much. In the end of all this, they might find that the US will be finally free to sail in Black Sea as long as it wishes. Our hypersonic missiles blah blah blah our continent sinking bombs blah blah blah. Turkey has already downed Russian jet, and downed 3 more Russian allied Syrian jets along with 100+ tanks and 5 air defense systems (including Pantsirs) in the past 2 days alone. This without any support from NATO. DoD is waiting for Erdo to get a better understanding of Russia as he is a bit dim-witted, once he is replaced or brought back to fold, expect to find a much more hostile Turkey.

    By the way, Russians are rushing ships to Syria (and one broke on its way near Turkish straits :D) as if the clearance sale will be over and shop will be closed soon. I wonder how you would like to supply your bases if Turkey decides to slow down straits traffic. Wait, I know, Russian Space Command will beam it from the space because Russia’s hypersonic technology.

    • Troll: bluedog
    • Replies: @NoseytheDuke
  307. FB says: • Website
    @Showmethereal

    i read an article stating NATO had drills to use drones to evade S400 – which is was Turkey did. How valid is that?

    Nonsense…you’re not going to use S400 against drones…that’s like using an elephant gun to shoot gophers…

    Also not all ‘drones’ are lumped in the same category…the drones Turkey is using are small, propeller driven craft with a speed of about 100 mph…they are powered by small piston engines that you see in ultralight aircraft…I will post a more detailed technical discussion on this drone matter that should clear some things up for the lay people on this forum…

    • Replies: @Showmethereal
  308. Talha says:
    @Mike P

    If Iran acquiesces to Russia’s strategy in Syria, it is not simply due to weakness.

    What options does Iran have if the Syrian military itself is being purged of pro-Iranian elements? And if Russia is giving carte blanche to Israel to target Iranian/Hezbollah equipment and people – including (if Khameini’s hunch is right) giving Israeli’s codes to bypass Iranian SAM systems (as with that F-35 incursion). Especially if their major player in the power-projection game just got killed a few weeks ago.

    BUT, Iran does still have quite a bit of influence yet in Iraq. That is mitigated to a degree by the US presence there (obviously, since they literally whacked Soleimani inside Iraq); as Trump said in the article I cited:
    <bon February 3, when President Donald Trump declared that U.S. troops were to remain in Iraq to ‘monitor Iran.’

    It appears that everyone is merely playing for time

    That is certainly the case, no arguments there.

    Peace.

    • Replies: @Mike P
  309. Lo says:
    @Showmethereal

    They can’t, their Russian air defenses also proven useless as Turkey destroys them while their radars are on. I hope Russia has buyer’s remorse policy so that Turks can return useless Russian anti air systems. Just in two days Syria and Iran suffered more losses in Syria than they did in past 9 years, and for Turkey, this is still a limited operation as it waits for NATO backing and no-fly zone.

    There will be also talks to remove Assad, Erdo being stupid will likely offer Putin that Russia can have its bases but Assad must go, and of course Russians will reject (such a dim-witted guy, believing Russians would trade what they already have however difficult to keep, for an unknown future government).

    • Replies: @FB
  310. kemerd says:

    The “hesitation” of Russians for a day or two appears to gain time for preparing for a mad erdogan attack in case it materializes.

    It appears Russia has no intention whatsoever to tolerate Erdogan’s antics anymore. I doubt that he would be given even a narrow strip to keep his dogs.

  311. FB says: • Website
    @Talha

    Look fool…you have been totally discredited here…

    As for your other ‘points’ and ‘sources’…about the alleged Israeli incursions into Syrian and even Iranian airspace, that is the same level of bullshit as the Israeli story I just debunked, where they claim to have taken out half of Syrian air defenses [this was before the S300s arrived later that fall…]

    I guess you expect me to now take apart this other even more ridiculous bullshit, one by one…

    Yeah…no, it doesn’t work that way…the exact same formula applies, as I have just illustrated…I guess you never took any college level math or physics…what I just did in my previous post is analogous to a ‘worked example’…the student can then go forward and use the same analytical method to solve similar problems…

    So no, I’m not going to sit here all day and do more worked examples for you…the fact is that no F35s [LOL] ‘intruded’ into Iranian airspace EVER…nor did the alleged Israeli jets just a couple of weeks ago intrude into Syrian airspace, as Reuters [LOL] ‘reports’…[without anything to back it up…]

    If that had actually happened, we would have heard about it from the Russians, who have made clear to the Israelis that flying their aircraft into Syrian airspace will result in them being shot down…

    Now…as for your wild-eyed story about a ‘secret’ Russia-Israel ‘collusion’ that is targeted at Iran and Hezbollah…

    Obviously this is such complete horseshit that it only serves to discredit you even more [if that is even possible at this point…]

    This is completely transparent bullshit…as I have explained before regarding Israeli missile shots into Syrian territory [from OUTSIDE Syrian airspace]…these mosquito bites have had ZERO effect on Syria’s march to victory, which continues apace despite these completely meaningless Israeli mini-tantrums…

    The only reason you keep pushing this idiot button is because you are dead set against Syria winning…you have made that abundantly obvious in this thread…you are clearly in the anti-Syria camp…

    That is clear from your cheerleading for Turkey, the headchoppers, plus your embracing of Israeli propaganda against Syria [the alleged but nonexistent Israeli ‘destruction’ of Syria’s air defenses just discussed, etc…]

    At the same time you are attacking Russia, which is the backbone of the Syrian resistance…so it doesn’t take a rocket scientist to see very clearly where you stand…totally against Syria [and by extension against the R+6 allies, including Iran and Hezb…]

    At the same time you have shown yourself to be completely in the Wahhabist camp, which of course is part of the Israel-neocon axis…

    All your fancy footwork here is quite meaningless at this point…there is no way you can reverse now the clarity of your despicable position…no matter how much you try to confuse this by peddling utter nonsense about Russia being against Iran and Hezb…[sure, Russia in its fight to achieve a Syrian vicotory is actually working against its own allies in this fight…]

    And you think people here are going to buy your rotten Sunni fish…?

    • Agree: Alfred
    • Replies: @Talha
  312. Mike P says:
    @Talha

    What options does Iran have if the Syrian military itself is being purged of pro-Iranian elements?

    That is a side show.

    And if Russia is giving carte blanche to Israel to target Iranian/Hezbollah equipment and people

    The Iranian missile strike, as well as their shooting down of American drones and planes, has shown that Iran is ready to defend itself and to retaliate, if the provocation is sufficiently severe; they don’t need Russia to do it for them. That is exactly what I mean – you underrate Iran.

    Especially if their major player in the power-projection game just got killed a few weeks ago.

    There was an interesting piece by Elijah Magnier which argued that Soleimani is even more effective in death than in life. I have a sneaking suspicion that Soleimani consciously did not avoid the risk of assassination because he knew that this would be the case. Would love to ask him about that (but hopefully not too soon).

    • Replies: @Talha
  313. FB says: • Website
    @Lo

    Just for the record LObotomy…exactly ZERO Syrian Pantsirs or any other air defense systems have been either hit, much less ‘destroyed’ by Turkish pissant drones…I will have a more thorough technical deep dive into Turkey’s drones later…

    Erdo being stupid will likely offer Putin that Russia can have its bases…

    Sure…and next time I see Mike Tyson, I’m going to ‘offer’ him the ‘opportunity’ to walk away in humiliation, ‘or else’…

    Meanwhile…REALITY and the SAA march on…

    You’re a little behind the times Lobotomy…

    Erdo going now on his knees to the Kremlin to beg for a ‘ceasefire’…LOL

    • Replies: @Lo
  314. Talha says:
    @FB

    So no, I’m not going to sit here all day and do more worked examples for you…

    OK – so you don’t really have an answer. No problem.

    And…followed by a lot more insults…that really avoid any substantial evidence to counter the claims other than your opinion…followed by…

    you are dead set against Syria winning…

    Uh no, I’m pretty sure Syrian sovereignty will be fully restored within a few years as will be negotiated this Thursday between Putin and Erdogan. That is the return to the status quo that Russia is trying to achieve, with the proper negotiations with Israel to maintain its edge and security concerns going forward.

    Followed by…

    the fact is that no F35s [LOL] ‘intruded’ into Iranian airspace EVER..nor did the alleged Israeli jets just a couple of weeks ago intrude into Syrian airspace, as Reuters [LOL] ‘reports’

    you have shown yourself to be completely in the Wahhabist camp

    OK, if you say so.

    And you think people here are going to buy your rotten Sunni fish…?

    That’s up to them to assess and see if what I’ve written makes sense. I’m not really writing it out for you; it’s actually for everyone else observing. You are just serving as a way for me to get my points across.

    Peace.

    • LOL: FB
  315. Talha says:
    @Mike P

    That is a side show.

    No, not if the breaking up of the Shiah Crescent (Iranian/Hezbollah) capability to reach Israel is concerned – that is what Israel is concerned about far more than anything else.

    The Iranian missile strike, as well as their shooting down of American drones and planes, has shown that Iran is ready to defend itself and to retaliate, if the provocation is sufficiently severe

    I agree, but in SYRIA? I’m specifically talking about Syria. I think you are talking about the Iraqi theater. If so, yes, I already mentioned that Iran has quite a presence there. Iranian presence in Iraq is a more distant threat and one that could be mitigated by Russians having the main role in charge of the Syrian airspace defense (and providing agreed-upon corridors for flight paths).

    which argued that Soleimani is even more effective in death than in life.

    Thanks for the read. A bit like…

    On a more serious note. Yes, perhaps he is a rallying symbol for the short term so it remains to see how much mileage is gained from that, but as far as aptitude and understanding the situation; how does one replace that? It may be done, but it’s not at all obvious who would be able to fill his shoes in that capacity.

    Peace.

  316. Lo says:
    @FB

    Just for the record LObotomy…exactly ZERO Syrian Pantsirs or any other air defense systems have been either hit, much less ‘destroyed’ by Turkish pissant drones…

    Sure professor, tell me about technical details, but first enjoy this:

    And this:

    And this:

    And best of all, this:

    Is that a frying Russian pilot? Lol. Just wait, at the end of this you will be losing your 3rd export market thanks to your belligerence. Then you can go back to eating snow and gas, you have plenty of both in Russia.

    • Replies: @FB
  317. FB says: • Website
    @Lo

    Lobotomy…Turkish propaganda films carry about as much meaning as a titmouse fart…

    If Turkish claims were even half true they would be in Damascus by now…instead of running for their lives as the SAA crushes them underfoot…

    The simple fact is that no Pantsir air defense systems are even in Idlib yet…so how could they be ‘destroyed’…?

    [There was no need for them to be there in the first place, since the airspace was not contested until Turkey decided to exploit the brief lull in Russian fighter jet sorties that Putin ordered after those several dozen Turkish soldiers were wiped out by Russian airstrikes…]

    I have already noted elsewhere that the footage of that Pantsir getting hit is from Libya…the UAE forces there operate a Pantsir variant that uses the German MAN chassis, rather than the Russian Kamaz that Syrian Pantsirs are mounted on…

    But there is a no fly zone in Idlib now, and Pantsirs are now on their way…

    Btw…there is lots more in Russia besides ‘snow and gas’…like the world’s only human-carrying spaceflight program…

    But like I said, I will be exploring in detail Turkey’s drone program and its capabilities…this will be quite interesting in terms of giving folks here an idea of Turkish aerospace ‘technology’…LOL…I’m sure you won’t want to miss that…

    • Replies: @Lo
  318. Iris says:
    @Alfred

    Here is a very interesting viewpoint on the global struggle unfolding in Syria, as view by Arab media “Ida’at”:

    ” The causes of World War III will have nothing to do with Shia, nor Sunnis, nor revolution, nor Islam, no Bashar, nor any of what they say …. You should not believe that America will fight for the sake of saving women and children. The global war will be because of the gas present in the Mediterranean basin !!

    When the situation stabilizes and work begins to extract Syrian and Lebanese gas, Syria and Lebanon will become among the most economically successful countries in the region>

    The beginning of the struggle for gas and oil in the eastern Mediterranean has been hidden since 1966, when British exploration ships discovered gas fields on Mount Eratosthenes. Then the United States and Russia came between 1977 and 2003, and confirmed that gas in the eastern Mediterranean extends from the beaches of Latakia to Western Egypt, on Mount Eratosthenes which extends under the waters of the Mediterranean from the cliffs of Latakia to North Damietta over 180 km !!

    Then, in 1997, Israel openly took part in the exploration by installing an array of electronic sensors in the Eastern Mediterranean, under the usual excuse of Iran, and using the pretext that it needed “to discover any Iranian missile attack against Israel”.

    On August 17 2010, after a geological survey through the American ship Nautilus, with Turkish assistance, it was announced that one of the largest gas reserve fields in the world is located in the eastern Mediterranean, which is the giant “Leviathan” gas field with a reserve of 23 trillion cubic feet.

    Syria, Lebanon and Egypt have a much larger share of this gas than Israel has. As for Turkey, it came out empty-handed: its shores and waters are free from a single drop of oil or gas. So how can she made a way for herself to grab this treasure, in light of the “Arab-Hebrew spring” ?

    Nine giant oil and gas exploration companies from the eastern Mediterranean were racing, including: French Total, American ExxonMobil, UK British Petroleum, Dutch Shell, American Nobel Energy, in which John Kerry owned shares worth $ 1 million, Israeli company Delek, Italian ENI, and of course Gazprom,the Russian conglomerate … Israel and Cyprus were the first two leading the race to control this riches.

    On October 3 2012, Australian company Woodside signed a $ 696 million contract with Tel Aviv, to extract 30% of the Leviathan gas field content. In the meantime, Israel developed a missile shield called the “David’s Slingshot”, to specifically counter any attack by Hezbollah, because Israel is in fact stealing the gas from Lebanon and Gaza>

    Syrian reserves of gas and petroleum are concentrated in the Syrian countryside and the coast at 83%, while the Syrian Island holds only 12% of reserves, contrary to what is known and believed. According to recent studies, the wells of the Syrian island will begin to deplete from 2022, while the rest of the fields remaining in the desert and coast, if they began to be exploited in 2018, would have produced until the horizon of 2051.

    Syria’s 2008 ranking in gas reserves was 43 globally, at 240,7 billion cubic meters, while it ranked 31 in oil reserves.
    As for 2017, the Syrian reserves of gas in the Palmyra region, Qara, the Tartous coast, and Banias are the largest among the six countries holding rights to the Leviathan field, and this would make Syria, if this gas is extracted, the third gas exporter in the world>

    Syria would then take over Qatar’s current global ranking, third after Russia and Iran. The Ferrell Center for Studies estimates the Syrian gas reserves at 28,500, billion cubic meters !!
    As for it internal needs, three medium-sized gas fields north of Palmyra are sufficient to provide Syria with full electricity, 24 hours a day, for 19 years !!

    So Moscow’s insistence on defending Syria is not only to secure a naval outlet on the Mediterranean, but more importantly, to control the strategy of gas and oil.

    Establishing a permanent naval base in Tartus was also motivated by the presence of a giant gas reservoir underwater, and Russia is ready to fight a global war for that. The Syrian opposition cannot be trusted even if it makes pledges to Moscow, it will only ever work according to American orders, and it will hand over the concessions to Western companies.

    Can Iran find a place on the Syrian coast that corresponds to the Russian military base ??
    The Syrian island, Deir Ezzor and the ISIS-controlled areas will run out of oil in the next few years. Washington’s support to them depends on this wealth, and this is why the United States supports the separatists to reach Deir Ezzor and south of Raqqa, hoping that they can join both areas in a very ambitious “federation”, but this is impossible.”

    If this analysis is correct, Netanyahu and his mate Erdogan are likely to double down, as they are fighting the predatory war of the century.

    • Thanks: NoseytheDuke
    • Replies: @Erebus
    , @Alfred
    , @Parfois1
  319. Lo says:
    @FB

    Ah, civilized Russian debates at its best. Farts and mouse? Not even funny. Why resort to name calling anyway? What does FB mean anyway? Full Bullshit? Anyway, I don’t care about your opinion on Turkish drones, all I can see is that 100+ Syrian tanks have been destroyed in what 2-3 days? Here read about drones, notice Russia doesn’t have anything similar, I know I know you have Space Force and Battlestar Ship but here it is:

    https://www.forbes.com/sites/sebastienroblin/2020/03/02/idlib-onslaught-turkish-drones-artillery-and-f-16s-just-destroyed-over-100-armored-vehicles-in-syria-and-downed-two-jets/#100428b76cd3

    Obviously you are rabid Russian troll, not even videos convince you, even though downing of SU-24s are confirmed by Syrian Army and videos clearly show destruction of armors and AASs.

    Btw…there is lots more in Russia besides ‘snow and gas’…like the world’s only human-carrying spaceflight program…

    Really? Last I checked Russia was not any better than Turkey as far GDPPPP goes despite the fact Turkey carries the burden of 5 million refugees. You can play with this propaganda stuff and jerk off to your spaceships, simple fact is the US has been there done that, and now is building space force. So after Central Asia, Eastern Europe and South Caucasia you will be getting kicked out from the space too lol. Not to mention SpaceX is already building tech Russians can only dream of. In any case, fact remains that Russia is a second tier economy and not any better equipped than Turkey to handle a war, especially one so far away from its borders.

    This is just in FYI:
    https://www.washingtonpost.com/world/middle_east/us-officials-visit-turkeys-border-with-syria-emphasize-support-for-nato-ally/2020/03/03/7bfce6c2-5d58-11ea-ac50-18701e14e06d_story.html

    I hope Russia doesn’t go too far to protect war criminal, chemical weapons using Assad, otherwise those bases will be sitting ducks as your ships cannot even sail from Black Sea to Latakia without getting broken on the way before even any Turkish intervention.

    In any case, believe whatever you will. Just know that 50s propaganda do not work anymore. Remember that Kadryov is getting old and there may be a new Dudayev. Turkey also pushes for NATO in Georgia, and will be supplying more arms to Ukraine at this rate. Tatarstan is also interesting, so far no one touched there, pretty close to Moscow too. All in all, it sounds like there are, what, 100-110m Russians nowadays and it may be about time for centennial Russian slaughter USSR style.

    • Disagree: Desert Fox
    • LOL: bluedog
  320. @Lo

    The war criminals are in Tel Aviv and NYC and Washington DC and London and Ankara.

  321. @Lo

    It’ll be a cakewalk! LOL!

  322. The most humane and practical thing to do in this instance would be to drop a mid-sized nuclear device directly onto Ankara.

    • Replies: @Milton
  323. FB says: • Website
    @Lo

    Farts and mouse?

    FYI…a ‘titmouse’ is a kind of bird [a type of chickadee]…not actually a rodent…[kind of like the difference between a human and a Lobotomy patient…LOL]

  324. Milton says:
    @Mother Theresa

    LOL! Spoken like a true saint. God bless you, Mother.

    Something is not quite right with the sick man of Europe, Erdogan: he often talks in a high-pitched voice, almost like he is possessed. Perhaps rather than dropping nukes on Turkey, Russia should launch a few stealthy drones over Ankara laden with Holy Water. After all Christ taught us that we are to bless our enemies, not curse them, and that our enemy is the prince of this world and our struggle is “not against flesh and blood, but against the rulers, against the authorities, against the powers of this world’s darkness, and against the spiritual forces of evil in the heavenly realms…”. These are the same angelic powers behind all wars and behind such willing human vessels as Freemasonry and Zionism.

    • Replies: @Lo
  325. Lo says:
    @Milton

    Something is not quite right with the sick man of Europe

    Last time Russians said that, their empire collapsed before the sick man and tens of millions of them ended up getting slaughtered by their own government, now isn’t that funny? Keep talking, Erdogan is gone the next elections but you will have Putin until he dies. So hope that you don’t get another Stalin after that or that he doesn’t become a mad czar once he starts going senile lol.

    • Replies: @pB
  326. L.K says:
    @Lo

    FB is indeed a Team Russia Troll but you ain’t any better…

    You started well enough with a funny comment about the Armenian nut, Avery, but then went downhill from there revealing yourself to be a Turkish Troll and a cheap propagandist.

    • Replies: @Lo
  327. FB says: • Website

    About Turkey’s claims of having killed a Pantsir [or several] in Syria…here is the proof that the vehicle in the videos that Ankara is circulating are fake…

    First a framegrab from the Turkish video…

    And here is a photo of the Pantsir on MAN chassis, as used by UAE in Libya…

    Here is a Pantsir of the type Syria uses, on a Kamaz chassis…

    Lots of major differences clearly visible…the MAN chassis is considerably longer than the more compact Kamaz layout…note that the space just aft of the cabin where the spare tire is mounted is much smaller on the Kamaz…also the equipment boxes on the back, the MAN boxes are much bigger…

    Here they are side-by-side…note that the space between the cabin and the mounted air defense equipment is much smaller on the Kamaz than on the MAN, and the spare tire has to be mounted crosswise, rather than lengthwise as on the MAN…

    Another shot of the Libyan MAN Pantsir that Turkey is trying to pawn off as a Syrian Pantsir…

    The very large MAN equipment box on the rear is clearly visible…[rear lift gate in the up position]

    • Agree: Desert Fox
    • Replies: @Lo
  328. Lo says:
    @L.K

    There is no propaganda, though I did intentionally go overboard with things like “centennial slaughter” to drive these nuts nuttier, because it is fun lol. There isn’t anything historically wrong about any claims I made. It is just that Russian and Chinese trolls on this site skew everything about their respective countries too positively, that when you hear the truth it sounds like other side’s propaganda (though Chinese trolls are nowadays silent, since China was forced to sit down and sign the trade deal like a good kid, and then came the Revenge of the Pangolins). You are free to point where you think I posted false claims though, all those videos save for one are taken from major news outlets and equipment losses are confirmed by Syrians themselves.

  329. pB says:
    @Lo

    and tens of millions of them ended up getting slaughtered by their own government,

    implying the bolshevik were the Russians “own government”

  330. @Lo

    all I can see is that 100+ Syrian tanks have been destroyed in what 2-3 days

    All those reports originally come from Turkish sources and should be taken with a fistfull of salt. Turks are known to exaggerate. Those numbers are clearly Turkish war propaganda that the western MSM is regurgitating.

    • Replies: @Johnny Rico
    , @Lo
  331. Erebus says:
    @Iris

    Thanks for bringing reality into the discussions Iris.

    It is not about the oil/gas per se of course, but about the financial and political leverage that control of oil/gas flows yields. Whereas China is positioning itself as the financial and manufacturing centre of Eurasia, Russia is positioning itself its energy flow arbitrator.

    Parenthetically, it’s Israel’s claim to the Leviathan field, however “junior” to others’ claims, that at least partially underpins Russia’s indulgent behaviour towards it. Tartous and Latakia are good. Haifa is better. I gave voice to this notion elsewhere on UR.

    • Replies: @Iris
  332. @Commentator Mike

    Yeah, and nobody else exaggerates. Only the Turks use propaganda. Beware of anyone using the word ‘clearly’ on UNZ.

  333. @Lo

    L.K. is, of course, UNZ’s Nazi troll. Cream of the crop.

    • Replies: @Beefcake the Mighty
  334. Putin made a big mistake trusting a lunatic like Erdogan, but it is probably true that Russia is still in control of the situation.

    https://tomluongo.me/2020/03/02/idlib-putin-folly-erdogan-rubicon/

  335. @Johnny Rico

    And you’re unz.com’s resident neocon fluffer.

    • Agree: L.K
    • Replies: @Johnny Rico
  336. Iris says:
    @Erebus

    Thanks Erebus, for posting your comments. Reading your insightful views is an immense privilege.

    God knows what President Putin’s view of Israel’s future really is.

    Based on an IMF report issued on Feb, 6th, 2020, Arab analyst A. Zelloum is stating that China will have become the undisputed Nr 1 global economic power by 2030, that the Gulf countries financial wealth will have been consumed by 2034, leaving them with no other choice than implementing large scale austerity measures which will greatly bring down their regional geopolitical status.

    https://ida2at.org/news/2020/02/27/5826/كتب-د-عبد-الحي-زلوم-في-عالم-المتغيرات-الغير-مسبوقة-ستصبح-الصين-صا

    As for Israel, the analyst reckons that the Zionist state will not reach the centenary milestone of its creation in 2048, first of course because of the economic demise of its American and ME funders and business partners. Second, the demographic dynamics is unfavourable:
    – Increase of the inner Palestinian population (Gaza+ West Bank + East Jerusalem) to 10 M by 2030.
    – The combination of Israeli Arabs and Hasidim Jews reaching over 50% of Israel’s population by 2040, both groups being anti-Zionist state and not serving in the military.

    Also, despite the high price paid by the Palestinian population, the current stalemate shows Israel’s military inadequacy against indomitable popular uprising. Finally, Israel’s “military might” is doomed anyway, in light of the obvious technological progress made by her regional foes, Iran, Syria, and even Hezbollah.

    In other terms, the writing is on the wall for the Zionist supremacist fabrication, and President Putin knows it well. The problem is so does Netanyahu: as Hebraic President Nicolas Sarkozy let it slip once, talking about his Tribe’s fate in the ME, “Time is against us“.

    Russia has nothing to gain publicly confronting the “eternal victim” Israel, who is in all logics condemned by the ineluctable strive of humanity towards a fairer state of affairs. Israel, however, and the US’ Deep State, will not accept losing their geopolitical lead, and we can expect more conniving “asymmetrical” warfare to take place.

    Arab public, again, believes that that COVID-19 is an engineered biological attack against China carried by the US and Israel. This video is purported to showing people deliberately spreading the virus:

    So, the questions raised by the Saker seem to have reasonable answers;
    – Erdogan is sacrificing his soldiers, with the blessing of Turkey’s top military, not to miss on the predation of the century (the Mediterranean’s gas reserves).
    – Erdogan does so knowing that he is taking part in a struggle essential to Israel’s existence, so can be sure to get at least “passive” help from the US patron.
    – Erdogan is consistent in his “great” vision: see his involvement in the Libyan Civil War, against the side taken by Russia.
    – Involving his Turkish cannon fodder is only a small investment to gain more leverage, knowing Russia’s strive for negotiated solutions.

    So no Turkish madness there. It looks like we are just getting more of the same deliberate strategy, until a tipping point is reached, or a singular determining event happens that either stops or greatly accelerates the course to WW3.

    Keep well; with kindest regards.

    • Replies: @Iris
    , @Talha
  337. Iris says:
    @Iris

    On why Erdogan is emboldened to carry out his military actions in Syria:

    The NATO-backed Al Nusra terrorists have just failed and been caught carrying a major chemical attack against the SAA and the local populations:

    https://www.rt.com/news/482292-terrorists-use-chemical-weapons-burned-idlib/

    Nevertheless, Turkey receives yet again warm US encouragements to carry on with war crimes and the use of banned chemical weaponry, symbolised by the visit of USUN Ambassador Kelly Craft, who is “grateful” to shake the hands of the WH murderers.


  338. Talha says:
    @Iris

    Erdogan is consistent in his “great” vision: see his involvement in the Libyan Civil War, against the side taken by Russia…AND Saudi and UAE and CIA and Israel

    “Days before Libyan military commander Khalifa Haftar launched an offensive to seize the capital and attempt to unite the divided country under his rule, Saudi Arabia promised tens of millions of dollars to help pay for the operation, according to senior advisers to the Saudi government.
    The offer came during a visit to Saudi Arabia that was just one of several meetings Mr. Haftar had with foreign dignitaries in the weeks and days before he began the military campaign on April 4.”
    https://www.wsj.com/articles/saudi-arabia-promised-support-to-libyan-warlord-in-push-to-seize-tripoli-11555077600
    “The United Arab Emirates is playing a destabilising role in Libya, analysts say, days after the release of a UN report that accuses the Gulf nation of repeatedly violating an international arms embargo. The UN’s Libya Sanctions Committee report, released on Friday, reveals the UAE has supplied attack helicopters and other military aircraft to the Libyan forces of renegade General Khalifa Haftar, in violation of UN-backed international sanctions against the regime.
    https://www.aljazeera.com/indepth/features/2017/06/uae-violates-libya-arms-embargo-supplies-haftar-lna-170613132424261.html

    “President Trump blindsided the international community and many of his own diplomats last week when he endorsed a Libyan military strongman whose forces are threatening the capital Tripoli. But for years Gen. Khalifa Haftar, 75, was an American intelligence asset, plotting to overthrow Col. Moammar Gadhafi first from neighboring Chad and later from suburban Virginia with the support of the CIA.
    https://www.cnbc.com/2020/01/29/libyas-war-explained-khalifa-haftar-oil-cuts-uae-airstrikes-and-russian-mercenaries.html

    “Russia has stepped onto Libya’s battlefield and into the political vacuum left by Western powers. It allegedly dispatched late last year hundreds of mercenaries to boost Haftar’s halting campaign to take Tripoli.
    Libyan and U.S. officials accuse Russia of deploying fighters through a private security contractor, the Wagner Group. Putin however says any Russians in the country are not in Moscow’s pay.
    Russia supports Haftar as the stronger militarily and backed by its ally Egypt, said Russian defence analyst Alexei Malashenko.
    ‘Moscow wants to preserve its presence in Libya through Haftar, including its oil interests,’ he said.
    https://www.africanews.com/2020/01/14/who-supports-who-in-libya-s-complex-battlefield-egypt-us-russia-turkey-europe//

    This isn’t some kind of good guys vs bad guys comic-book fantasy; everyone involved is in it for their own self-interests and wheeling and dealing with whoever will help them secure their own financial and political interests and of course oil when it comes to Libya. CIA, Turkey, Russia, Saudi, UAE – you name it…including, yup!

    Libyan warlord Khalifa Haftar has been secretly meeting with Israeli intelligence officials, resulting in the Israeli military training militias loyal to Haftar in “street warfare”, Libyan and Egyptian sources have revealed to The New Arab’s Arabic-language service.
    A security cooperation agreement between the two sides gave rise to Egypt coordinating the transfer of specialised Israeli officers to Haftar-controlled territories in Libya to carry out the training in August and September of 2019.”
    https://www.alaraby.co.uk/english/News/2019/12/7/EXCLUSIVE-Israeli-military-secretly-training-Haftar-militias-in-Libya

    Peace.

    • Replies: @Iris
    , @L.K
  339. Lo says:
    @FB

    How funny it is that this video came out soon after your claims that Turkey hasn’t destroyed any Pantsirs. In fact, first news of this incident was released, of course Russian and Syrian trolls all rejected. The half hours later video was leaked and they all went silent mode as usual. Face it, it is a mediocre / weak system that cannot do its job properly against UAVs. By the way, there are much clearer videos than the image you posted above. Of course Syrians cannot confirm it because Russian arms manufacturers are worried their sales would dip. If Russia does not accept Turkish demands on 5th, strikes will get harder and accidents may also happen. Don’t forget thousands of Chechens in Turkey’s command as well. No one is begging Russians for anything, it is just that Turks don’t want a war with Russia anymore than Russians want a war with Turkey for some crappy desert country. But at this point Turkey cannot let Assad stay in power, and sooner Russians let this guy go better for both countries. Alternatively, Russia is large, since Assad won’t take Syrians he chased back, maybe Russians can settle Syrians Assad chased in Moscow if they are so persistent in keeping Assad in power. Because Turks are sure sick of taking care of Syrians that war criminal Assad chased out from their homes.

    • Replies: @Talha
    , @Milton
  340. Lo says:
    @Commentator Mike

    News from Turkish sources tend to come with hi-def videos. Unless you are one of those trolls who claim Turkey is releasing video game recordings, you have to accept a source with video evidence.

  341. @Lo

    And yet Mini-Sultan has lost the battle for Saraqib, Russian MP vehicles are patrolling the M5 as we speak!

    • Replies: @Lo
  342. Iris says:
    @Talha

    This isn’t some kind of good guys vs bad guys comic-book fantasy; everyone involved is in it for their own self-interests and wheeling and dealing with whoever will help them …

    Not entirely correct. A moral and respectable position was consistently adopted by neighbouring Tunisia and Algeria with regard to the Libyan civil war, despite both countries having paid a heavy price for Western meddling in Libya, which consequences hit their respective vital industries, tourism and O&G.

    These two countries have consistently called to stop any foreign intervention, respect national sovereignty and the UN-recognised Fayaz Al Sarraj Tripoli government.

    However, only a few weeks ago, after Al Sarraj’s alliance with Erdogan progressed and was made public, popular demonstrations took place in Tunisia denouncing a Tunis visit by Erdogan and refusing any Tunisian involvement in his Libyan policy.

    Similarly, as soon as it was confirmed that Erdogan had brought in his Al Nusra NATO proxy terrorists to fight on the side of the UN-recognised Tripoli government, Algeria made a noted volte-face and started friendly talks with CIA-asset Khalifa Haftar.

    The situation in Libya is indeed very, very murky and saddening, and a humanitarian disaster no doubt. But President Putin bears no responsibility in a mess primarily engineered and caused by Zionist fanatics and Hebraic individuals Nicolas Sarkozy and Bernard Henry Levy; the Russian President did in no way encourage this disaster, but has to manage the consequences. With regards.

    • Agree: Robjil
    • Thanks: NoseytheDuke
  343. L.K says:
    @Talha

    Talha:

    And the rest of my points were really about the larger picture of Russia playing its version of the great game in Syria, coordinating within Syrian military command to reduce Iranian influence and having an understanding with Israel allowing it help reduce that mutual nuisance by eliminating Hezbollah and Iranians assets on the ground.

    For the record; as a part of the deal for a Russian military intervention, the Russians demanded Iran to provide the extra ground forces, which were necessary for offensive operations, since the Syrian Army had been too badly weakened by years of warfare and lacked enough offensive trained forces, not to mention it had to keep many of its best troops protecting Damascus and other sensitive areas. This Iran did, mainly through the use of the IRGC’s foreign legions and Iranian officers. Hezbollah was already in Syria with an expeditionary force since 2013 at the request of President Assad. Hezbollah continues to support the Syrian Army and recently helped it retake Saraquib and other towns in the area where the Turk-backed militants had made some gains.
    So even today, with a stronger SAA, Hezbollah and Iranian forces are still needed, since Russia was never willing to suffer the casualties that boots on the ground inevitably bring about.

    At the same time, it is true that Russia is trying to limit Iran’s presence in Syria, but it is NOT in a position to achieve this, veteran war correspondent E. Magnier explains why, in a Feb 2020 article:

    “Iran is continuously arming Syria and its allies in the Levant. Israel is mindful of this and can do very little to stop it.

    The Iranian presence in Syria is a fact that neither the US, Russia or Israel can alter. Syria needs a country like Iran to stand against the US hegemony and defend the country when necessary. Iran has expressed its deep relationship with Syria over the nine years of war and showed its readiness to stand up to the US when needed, as in the attack on the US military base in Ayn al-Assad. The time will come when Israel will no longer be able to use its air, sea and infantry forces freely against Syria.”

    This will happen when the priorities are reached, i.e, the Takfiri militants in Idlib crushed and the large territory controlled by the US/Kurdish mercenaries returns to Syria. The Israeli airstrikes do cause some damage and, btw, mostly against Syrian assets, for Iran is also helping Syria build up its precision missile capabilities, but as long as the airstrikes are kept at a level where SAA is not degraded by them, focus is kept on the priorities and on no escalation, particularly dangerous in the case of Israel, since this could pull the ZUS into the fray. Magnier again:

    “An agreement was reached between Israel and Russia whereby no Israeli jet would violate Syrian airspace, at the risk of being downed. Russia is in control of the entire air space over Syria with the exception of the east of the Euphrates river. This is why Israel violated Iraqi airspace when it bombed targets (Althiyas Military airbase, also known as T4) east of Homs under cover of the US military bases in Iraq and the occupied north-east of Syria. Otherwise, it bombs targets in Syria when flying above the occupied Golan Heights or Lebanon. Moreover, Russia demands that Israel inform it in advance of any attack so as to avoid being caught in the crossfire, warn its partners in Syria to avert severe casualties, and remove sensitive weapons from their caches.”

    https://ejmagnier.com/2020/02/27/israel-bombs-syria-how-long-can-this-go-on/

    • Replies: @Talha
  344. Lo says:
    @Plato's Dream

    Turkey is not engaging on the ground, nor does it involve even third of its AF. Currently lightly armed rebels & drones alone fight with Syrians and supporting Russians. For now Russian MPs are also not being targeted, so Russians think that Turks won’t dare hitting if they patrol some city. I guarantee you, if there aren’t serious compromises, eventually Russians will be targeted as well and for all their talk Russians do not have advantage in Syria in case of a real conflict. For now everyone is trying to get a stronger hand before the meeting tomorrow. If things go further south, Turkey may unilaterally close straits or cut a deal with US for unlimited pass & stay in Black Sea. This may as well end with another Crimean War.

    • Replies: @Swedish Family
  345. Talha says:
    @Lo

    some crappy desert country

    OK – Syria isn’t all that, but that’s because idiot Arab nationalists have run its economy into the ground like they always do everywhere by putting their idiot cousin in charge of this or that ministry and grant them monopolies on this or that business sector (the below is a great read, based on the leaks on worldwide leaders and elites and their offshore accounts serviced by Mossack Fonseca & Co. – which went under after the leak). Some takeaways:
    “The revelation in the leaked Panama Papers that Mossack Fonseca and Swiss bank HSBC serviced the companies of corrupt Syrian billionaire Rami Makhlouf (first cousin of dictator Bashar al-Assad) long after the US imposed sanctions on him is a reminder of why Syrians revolted against the regime in 2011 in the first place. Makhlouf was said to be worth $5 billion (likely more than Donald Trump) before the revolution, and to have dominated 60% of Syria’s economy….Six years later, in 2010– on the eve of the outbreak of massive protests, the per capita GDP was still less than $3000 a year (124th out of 183 countries ranked), whereas neighboring Turkey’s was nearly $11,000 (61st), according to the International Monetary Fund. That is, in 2010 Syria was similar in this regard to Honduras and the Congo…”
    https://www.truthdig.com/articles/panama-papers-revelation-of-assad-familys-stolen-wealth-helps-explain-the-syrian-revolution-2/

    So – yeah, Syria is kind of a basket case in that regard (which, again, helps retain regional status quo). BUT it has tremendous potential in terms of human capital (Syrians are smart and industrious) and it is a blessed land. I have plenty of Syrian friends and some of my friends and teachers have even traveled to Syrian to sit and learn at the feet of the lamps of spiritual knowledge that live in that land.

    sooner Russians let this guy go better for both countries

    That may or may not be true, but read what I cited; Russia has invested too much in restructuring the Syrian military to be their pliant clientele for Assad to be let go. UNLESS, they find a cousin or uncle or something of his that is more on their side; or even from another one of the main Alawite clans. A simple bloodless coup is all you need to make it happen AND since Russian military is embedded within their elite forces and command structure, this is very, very easy to pull off. I’m pretty sure Assad knows this (he’s not a fool and knows Arab elite politics) and so will toe the line as per dictates from Russia. If that happens, it won’t be surprising if the Russians make sure it’s a man like Haftar that is willing to – at least under the table – deal a little more liberally with the Israelis.

    Peace.

    • Replies: @Robjil
  346. DFC says:

    I think the way the turkish army are dealing with the SAA air defense (Pantsir included) is using very har to detect small drones (not combat drones, burt other smaller versions) flying on top of trees, as target designators for smar 155mm artillery rounds like the Copperhead or Excalibur Laser Guide Projectile (LGP). And wihout a complete complex system with early warning and EW planes, the AA systems let alone are doomed.

    You can see, in fact, huge explosions on tanks and AA systems that cannot be produced by the small missiles carried by the turkish combat UAV’s, there are other case when you can see much smaller explosions on soft targets (like trucks and “technicals”). The explanation of the huge explosions are the 155mm rounds fired by the howitzers.

    I think it is the US who, in fact, is testing the capability of this combination against the russian systems (through SAA’s russian supply air defense). Apart from geopolitical and military reasons, there is a huge market there for anti-aircraft weapons and Russia is depending on these exports to balance the budget and gain political advantages against the US block; so a blow to the almighty russian air defense system always is a good opportunity for the US MIC. That is the reason the russians are putting more and more resources in the game specially their more modern early warning and EW planes that right now are wreacking havoc in the turkish drones (detecting, jamming and directing the fire from AA systems and planes)

    In fact we are seeing a technological warfare between US and Russia through their proxies.

    • Replies: @Desert Fox
  347. Robjil says:
    @Talha

    Have you heard any interviews with Assad?

    He speaks very logically and not twisted thinking like “western” leaders and flunkies like Erdogan.

    He is not a dictator.

    His people love him that is why he is still standing.

    • Replies: @Iris
    , @Talha
  348. @Avery

    There was no civilization nor cities before Europeans got to America????

    That is an utter lie. There were 2 London sized cities. Plenty if diverse civilizations. You have no clue Ben Franklin got some of his governance ideas from the Iriqouis confederacy..??? Well I cant blame you… The school system doesn’t teach children that.

    Like rapists blaming the girl for what she wore. A rapist is a rapist. You are right though – they didnt want to exterminate the natives – just extort and/or enslave them. When that didnt work – they imported millions of Africans and then blamed the Africans for showing up.

  349. @Beefcake the Mighty

    Oh, I’m sorry. Did I hurt your feelings, Beefcake?

    • Replies: @Beefcake the Mighty
  350. @Lo

    Anyway, I don’t care about your opinion on Turkish drones, all I can see is that 100+ Syrian tanks have been destroyed in what 2-3 days? Here read about drones, notice Russia doesn’t have anything similar, I know I know you have Space Force and Battlestar Ship but here it is:

    https://www.forbes.com/sites/sebastienroblin/2020/03/02/idlib-onslaught-turkish-drones-artillery-and-f-16s-just-destroyed-over-100-armored-vehicles-in-syria-and-downed-two-jets/#100428b76cd3

    Whatever your knowledge of things on the ground, it doesn’t inspire confidence that you confuse armored vehicles (the wording used in your link) with tanks.

  351. @DFC

    AL CIADA aka ISIS is exactly that, a US proxy and it is also Turkeys proxy and also Israels proxy, yes in deed, Russia on the other hand is helping save the sovereign nation of Syria and for that, may God bless Putin and Russia!

  352. Iris says:
    @Robjil

    Thanks, dear Robjil, for so simply and elegantly exposing well-worn Western propaganda people still seem to fall for.

    • Agree: Desert Fox
  353. Lo says:

    OK – Syria isn’t all that, but that’s because idiot Arab nationalists have run its economy into the ground like they always do everywhere by putting their idiot cousin in charge

    That is their problem. I told you long ago religion is a mind virus and that Turks or Iranians, rationally, should have zero reason to care about the problems of Arabs. Especially, when Arabs are supporting everything anti Turkey everywhere. The idea that Turkey has responsibility towards these people due to “muh ummah” was proven dead, thanks to high school graduate Erdogan is proven dead again. Turks are not responsible for taking care of people who are their own worst enemies. Let Israel kick their backs as much as it wants, that is what Arabs desire, want and deserve.

    That may or may not be true, but read what I cited; Russia has invested too much in restructuring the Syrian military to be their pliant clientele for Assad to be let go.

    Well, only way I see Assad staying is giving general leniency to everyone and letting all Arabs return their homes. Of course that would never happen. Hopefully something will be figured out soon, because nothing that can be gained from Syria is worth having a Russo-Turkish war, however for Turkey Syrian refugee problem is a matter of live or die situation, they have to understand that. Turkey simply will not house these people any longer, and Turks being generous (or stupid) people helped them more than anyone, while their Arab brethren laughed their misery and back-stabbed Turkey everywhere. Enough is enough. If it will take a war with Russia to achieve this goal, then so be it.

    For the rest of your post, all I will say is that, none of it is the rest of the humanity’s problem. I know how incompetent and corrupt they are. It is their country, their lives. No one, not Europe, not Turkey, not US owes Arabs a good government and just countries. These are my thoughts about Arabs and their states. I don’t have the same negative views about the rest of the Muslims.

    • Replies: @Talha
  354. @Talha

    No argument that others left Turkey holding the bag. That makes their leaders fools or crazy. Reap what you sow. They joined in and suffer for it. Now they are getting their “revenge” by opening the flood gates of refugees into Europe. Thats what happens when you join a gang. There is no honor among thieves.

    • Agree: Talha
  355. @Lo

    I guarantee you, if there aren’t serious compromises, eventually Russians will be targeted as well and for all their talk Russians do not have advantage in Syria in case of a real conflict. For now everyone is trying to get a stronger hand before the meeting tomorrow. If things go further south, Turkey may unilaterally close straits or cut a deal with US for unlimited pass & stay in Black Sea. This may as well end with another Crimean War.

    Spoken like a true hooray patriot.

    I put more stock in the Western military perspective of TTG, over at Pat Lang’s blog:

    [MORE]

    The seesaw events of the last few days can be examined from the political dancing and posturing of the major players and from the combatants’ maneuvers on the battlefield. Obviously there is a lot of interplay between the two, but I think it is the soldiers who are driving this train rather than the politicians. I’m also way more comfortable at the grazing fire level than wallowing among the political class.

    The SAA still is composed of a few well trained, well led and well equipped combined arms units capable of sustained heavy combat. They are constantly moved to where they are needed most. Most of the SAA positions are manned by lightly armed National Defense Forces (NDF) and local militias. These forces essentially man a picket line against the jihadis. They can defend against light probes, but cannot withstand a major jihadi assault especially when those jihadis are supported by Turkish artillery and armor. That is what happened at Saraqib when the 25th Division and Liwa al Quds were withdrawn to attack the al Zawhiya Mountains and the M4 from the south. It happened again when the 25th and Liwa Al Quds pulled out of that offensive to deal with Saraqib for the second time. Fortunately, the NDF and militias were able to withdraw rather than being overrun and destroyed.

    In the face of the SAA success in Operation Idlib Dawn, Erdogan slowly ratcheted up the use of the Turkish Army to bolster his jihadi allies on the battlefield. The SAA adjusted. However, bombing of the convoy resulting in the death of thirty plus Turkish soldiers drove Erdogan to find a way to assuage his embarrassment. I think his retaliation with MLRS, artillery and drone strikes surprised the SAA and the Russians as well. Perhaps the Russians first thought the Turkish strikes were a face saving measure and would stop after the initial strikes. Erdogan thought this Russian pause was a sign of weakness and did not stop his attacks. Another blunder. The R+6 adjusted once again. SAA air defenses were moved to the battlefield. Russian air strikes increased. It appears Russian EW units are now in action against Turkish drones. The SAA is still not directly targeting the Turks, but if the Turks are hanging abound the jihadis, the SAA does not hesitate to strike. With all the Turkish equipment and uniforms supplied to the jihadis, it getting difficult to tell them apart. Russia has told Turkey they could not guarantee the safety of Turkish aircraft over Syria. I believe the Iranians have also warned Turkey that all those surrounded Turkish observation posts were under direct observation and could easily be under direct fire. Erdogan’s bluff has been called.

    The jihadis are suffering from a lack of sufficient assault troops in spite of Turkish largesse. After retaking Saraqib with several days of relentless assaults and heavy casualties, they pulled many of their fighters off the battlefield to address the threat to the M4 to their west. They could not hold Saraqib and attack south of the M4 at the same time. Their chance to retake Saraqib is now gone. The Russians have moved their MPs into Saraqib as a signal to Erdogan that it is forever part of Syria.

    The jihadi counteroffensive in southern Idlib was blunted in a unique way. The SAA in Kafr Nabl let the word that they have withdrawn from Kafr Nabl be spread on social media. In reality, the SAA remained in hidden positions in the town hoping to lure the jihadis into an ambush. It worked. The jihadis advanced and were annihilated. The SAA immediately counterattacked and retook two additional towns. I don’t know what SAA unit this was. It could very well have been an NDF outfit. They are learning. The jihadis are whining about Spetsnaz operating in the area. Maybe they are, maybe they’re not. I actually hope there are Russian advisors working with those second tier NDF units, advising and calling in air strikes. This ambush is something I would have advised them to do. I love the ambush.

    The Russians are rapidly replacing the SAA’s battlefield losses in equipment and are not withholding air support to the SAA. Neither Moscow nor Damascus are impressed by Erdogan’s latest histrionics. Trump and the DoD has said no dice to Erdogan’s request for help. It does appear that Pompeo is still trying to drum up some kind of support for “our staunch NATO ally.”

    I predict the R+6 will secure both the M4 and M5 in the coming weeks, but will leave Idlib city for another day. They have to let the Turkish frog boil a little longer before he will accept the fact that Idlib is a Syrian city without throwing another hissy fit. He’ll also have to figure out what he’s going to do with all those jihadi friends of his. Libya isn’t going his way, either.

    • Replies: @Lo
  356. @FB

    No the article was saying that because they were afraid of the S400 – they practiced using drones – innstead of planes to to carry out strikes – in order to avoid the S400…. So thats why I was asking how do defenses work against drones…. For instance I read that Israel is testing lasers against smaller drones. I will await the technical detail but it sounds like you are saying the Turkish drones are similar in size to the US drone that the Iranians shot down last year..?

    • Replies: @FB
  357. Lo says:
    @Swedish Family

    Don’t care about Swede faggots. Enjoy Somalians breeding your daughters.

    • Troll: bluedog
    • Replies: @Alfred
  358. Talha says:
    @Robjil

    His people love him that is why he is still standing.

    Oh for the love of…look man, you believe that if you want. I have no problems.

    His people think he is a better option than Daesh fanatics (that’s not really setting the bar very high) and having their country being torn apart any further as the plaything of foreign powers. They are tired and weary and want the fighting to stop.

    I know many Syrians, how many do you know? Have you ever gone to Syrian people’s houses? Been invited to their parties/weddings? My brother came close to marrying one. I even know ones who aren’t that religious, their wives don’t even wear hijab.

    Through all this I have come across ONE Syrian, in person who had anything positive to say about Assad. The rest of them only want the fighting to come to an end because the alternative (cure) is even worse that the status quo (disease).

    There is a Syrian shaykh I’ve met before who I highly respect. He is in exile in Morocco for speaking out against the regime in early on. He is a traditional scholar and a Sufi and literally wrote the book against Daesh calling for Muslims to declare war on the entity:

    By 2014, when he saw that outside-funded Salafi-Wahhabi-extremist elements were starting to take over leadership of the native militias, he warned about it, denounced it and stated clearly that fighting was no longer in the interests of the Syrian people. Did he like Assad? Hell no, but he realized that this was not going to end well for anyone and it was best to call it off and come to terms.

    Peace.

    • Replies: @Robjil
    , @Iris
  359. Talha says:
    @L.K

    So even today, with a stronger SAA, Hezbollah and Iranian forces are still needed, since Russia was never willing to suffer the casualties that boots on the ground inevitably bring about.

    They WERE needed about 5 years ago, because – as you said – the Russian populace was OK with kebab-on-kebab violence, but not with Russian deaths. So warm bodies were absolutely necessary, and Iran/Hezbollah obliged. There is no strong evidence that they are needed any more once Syrian territory is fully integrated.

    it is true that Russia is trying to limit Iran’s presence in Syria, but it is NOT in a position to achieve this

    Not alone.

    This will happen when the priorities are reached

    This is a hope, not a reality and I’ll believe it when I see it. The Russians are actively trying to reduce Iranian influence (in its military command) and physical presence in Syria by turning a blind eye to Israeli targeting of Iranian/Hezbollah assets. Specifically because they are not as necessary any more to the goal of Syrian territorial integrity and may even be a liability since Israel will keep attacking Syria (from inside its airspace or outside) while the networks are there.

    for Iran is also helping Syria build up its precision missile capabilities

    Precisely…that is the understanding; Russia will allow targeting of actual threats to Israel.

    Once the fighting stops, then we will know what Russia’s true intentions are. As I said before:
    If the Syrian war ends and the Russians stick around, but ask (and convince the Syrians to push for) the Iranians to go home because “we got this, bro – don’t worry” – that will be the biggest sign.

    From your source:

    Israel and Russia enjoy good ties, but Russia will not allow an Israeli-Syrian war to spoil its plans to impose stability in the region.

    Exactly – maintain status-quo. That stability includes making sure Iranian influence in Syria is not a destabilizing factor in the eyes of the Russians.

    Peace.

    • Replies: @L.K
    , @L.K
  360. Talha says:
    @Lo

    Well, only way I see Assad staying is giving general leniency to everyone and letting all Arabs return their homes. Of course that would never happen.

    It is possible if the Russians demand it – there will be wheeling and dealing on the side. Remember – status-quo; straight-line borders must be maintained.

    Turks are not responsible for taking care of people who are their own worst enemies. Let Israel kick their backs as much as it wants, that is what Arabs desire, want and deserve.

    Hell no. This Ummah must strive for reconciliation and unity through shared and common goals which accommodate all of our interests. Our marching orders are clear:
    “And if two factions among the believers should fight, then make settlement between the two. But if one of them oppresses the other, then fight against the one that oppresses until it returns to the ordinance of Allah. And if it returns, then make settlement between them in justice and act justly. Indeed, Allah loves those who act justly. The Believers are but a single Brotherhood: So make peace and reconciliation between your brothers; and fear Allah, that you may receive Mercy.” (49:10-11)

    And that’s fine if you think that is nonsense, but I want nothing more than an end to these brother-wars and to see all the various members of my brotherhood strive and be of mutual assistance to each other.

    No one, not Europe, not Turkey, not US owes Arabs a good government and just countries.

    The problem is that they all have their hands in causing the mess. It is one thing to just stand off , but a complete other issue by actively causing damage and promoting and supporting the leadership of corrupt elites that are a liability to their people.

    These are my thoughts about Arabs and their states. I don’t have the same negative views about the rest of the Muslims.

    I consider both the Turks and the Arabs (the Muslim ones at least) as my brothers and hope and pray for their reconciliation and unity.

    Peace.

    • Replies: @Lo
  361. Robjil says:
    @Talha

    The Syrians you met left.

    Syrians that like Assad have stayed or came back.

    USisrael wanted a regime change there for years.

    Many people don’t like the regime in France.

    The yellow vest movement in France has been going on for years.

    Yet, silence by our Zion MSM.

    Zion MSM brainwashes us endlessly that regime change is “only valid” for nations that USisrael wants to regime change.

    Your friends fell for the brainwashing. Lots of us do. The Unz site is a good wake up site.

    • Agree: L.K, Republic
    • Thanks: Iris
    • Replies: @Talha
  362. Iris says:
    @Talha

    By 2014, when he saw that outside-funded Salafi-Wahhabi-extremist elements were starting to take over leadership of the native militias, he warned about it, denounced it and stated clearly that fighting was no longer in the interests of the Syrian people.

    Wow!! After the 2011 senseless destruction of once-prosperous Libya and the abject massacre of her people, it took your “learned” sheikh another 3 years to wake up to the reality of the Hebrew-Arab Spring and the evil of Wahhabism?

    And of all Arab countries, he chose Israeli-colonised Morocco to go to exile to and live his “Islamic” dissidence?

    Most Arab teenagers I meet are much smarter than this Syrian Shaikh. So may be we should just stick to rational arguments when talking about President Assad: if he wasn’t respected and considered as the embodiment of the Syrian State by his people, of ALL religions, not just the Muslims, his army would have long defected, instead of bravely and patiently fighting a horrible war for 9 terrible years.

    The Syrian Arab Army’s commitment and sacrifice is actually beyond rational thinking. It belongs to the category of collective spiritual efforts us in the West have become incapable of even grasping.

    One might say the same about the Wahhabi Takfiri, by the way. But while they indeed recruit young deluded idealists, their overwhelmimg motivations are more earthly: the spoils of war, a salary, and drugs to get high on.

    A Libyan businessman I met on a flight even told me the exact salary of the stupid Wahabbi cannon fodder in his country: US$ 1000 per months.

    • Thanks: Robjil
    • Replies: @Talha
  363. Milton says:
    @Lo

    God is on Assad’s side in this conflict, and is the only reason he has lasted this long. Assad did not start this conflict and is the victim, not the aggressor in this conflict.

    Syria is the cradle of Christianity and the Book of Revelation describes the same area as the location of the final persecution of Christianity by the armies of the Antichrist. Zionism and Freemasonry are in fact the two heads of the Beast which is now waging a final persecution against the camp of the saints in Syria.

    Turkey is on the same side (the eventual losing side) as the other principal supporters of the proxy “Syrian Rebels”: United States, Saudi Arabia, Israel, France, Britain, etc. The Book of Revelation makes it clear as day how it ends for these wicked members of Mystery Babylon: epic defeat, all in “one hour.”

    Russia’s role remains to be clearly defined. Russia has defended the Christians of Syria, but appears to have done so in lukewarm fashion, refusing to strike a just, lasting blow against Zionist and Turkish aggression. The Bible says some interesting things about the fate of the lukewarm. God marks the wicked for destruction, but He also acts very harshly against favored Kings who refuse to execute His Justice when given the chance.

  364. Lo says:
    @Talha

    It is possible if the Russians demand it – there will be wheeling and dealing on the side.

    No they won’t demand it. They will try to hoist these useless Arabs on Turkey just as Europe does, and in no time you will see Arabs rioting in Turkey, if it were to end up with that. Although brain dead Erdogan does not even mind giving them citizenship, no sane Turk wants 5 million Arabs in their country.

    Our marching orders are clear:

    Okay so Arabs are either too stupid to understand their holy book, written in their own language and march on the right side or they just simply do not care. Yet you are telling that Turks must march. Let me tell you something, Turks who have even sent boys as young as 12 years old to frontline to establish their country and be the only people to change the terms of WW1 treaties do not have to fight for or accept adult Arabs who run away from their countries without fighting.

    The problem is that they all have their hands in causing the mess. It is one thing to just stand off , but a complete other issue by actively causing damage and promoting and supporting the leadership of corrupt elites that are a liability to their people.

    Turks did not establish Arab dictatorships. Turkey’s involvement in Syria is after the war started, by the Islamist government. Had it been a normal government, they wouldn’t have involved in Syria at all. There was nothing in it for Turkey, and there isn’t anything now. Having said that, why aren’t Saudis and Gulf Arabs taking Syrians in?

    I consider both the Turks and the Arabs (the Muslim ones at least) as my brothers and hope and pray for their reconciliation and unity.

    This isn’t about reconciliation and unity, it is about interests of nations. Clearly, Arab countries consider Turkey to be an enemy, as proven by their acts. Wishful thinking does not change the facts on the ground. Turkey has resources to live without dealing with Arabs the next 10.000 years if needed. So they should let Arabs have what they want, and let them deal with their own issues.

    • Replies: @Talha
    , @Commentator Mike
  365. @Beefcake the Mighty

    That’s correct. See if you can remember that.

    • Replies: @Beefcake the Mighty
  366. L.K says:
    @Talha

    You have NO understanding of the dynamics between Iran, Syria & Hezbollah and you ridiculously inflate Russian influence in Syria, pretending Syria has become merely a Russian client state where Russia calls all the shots, which is completely FALSE…

    “My source”, Elijah Magnier, is a veteran war correspondent from the region, with actual sources within the Syrian military/intel and within the Axis of Resistance – & he has stated very clearly on different occasions that the Iranian/Syrian/Hezbollah network is well entrenched in Syria and that their ties run very deep, and that Russia CANNOT change that.
    Are you even aware that these ties go back into the 1980s?
    Feel free to ignore the information, but you are merely a Pakistani who lives in the US!

    Typically you are still pushing the exact same BS you did years ago about how the Syrians don’t like Assad and you know that because you know Syrian expats in the US! Duh.
    By your logic, all or most Iranians hate their government since most Iranian expats in the ZUS generally do. Double duh!
    Assad has enjoyed quite a bit of popularity in Syria, and this has grudgingly been recognized even by some US officials. Funnily enough, back in 2011, Qatar, which would become one of the key sponsors for Takfiri gangs in Syria in years to come, hired a firm to find out what kind of support Assad enjoyed and the result was > 50%. Few Western leaders can say the same thing.
    BTW, you disclose your obvious bias again by calling the Syrian government the regime.

    You then go on about some Syrian shaykh that you highly respect who only figured out that there was something wrong with the “rebellion” by year 2014!!
    And it was not a “rebellion” either and al-Qaeda in Iraq, Salafists and sectarian Muslim Brothers were at the core of this thing from THE START, with foreign support, and this is a FACT, fully confirmed by a leaked DIA(United States foreign military intelligence agency) report.
    The following is excerpted from the seven page DIA declassified report from 2012:

    THE GENERAL SITUATION:

    A. INTERNALLY, EVENTS ARE TAKING A CLEAR SECTARIAN DIRECTION.

    B. THE SALAFIST [sic], THE MUSLIM BROTHERHOOD, AND AQI(AL QAEDA IN IRAQ) ARE THE MAJOR FORCES DRIVING THE INSURGENCY IN SYRIA.

    C. THE WEST, GULF COUNTRIES, AND TURKEY SUPPORT THE OPPOSITION; WHILE RUSSIA, CHINA AND IRAN SUPPORT THE REGIME.

    3. (C) Al QAEDA – IRAQ (AQI):… B. AQI SUPPORTED THE SYRIAN OPPOSITION FROM THE BEGINNING, BOTH IDEOLOGICALLY AND THROUGH THE MEDIA…

    https://levantreport.com/2015/05/19/2012-defense-intelligence-agency-document-west-will-facilitate-rise-of-islamic-state-in-order-to-isolate-the-syrian-regime/

    • Agree: Robjil
    • Replies: @Talha
  367. L.K says:
    @Talha

    Here is another FACT about the Syrian “civil war”, “uprising” or whatever Mass Media terminology you may wish to employ;

    The so called “Syrian Observatory for Human Rights”, a Muslim Brotherhood one man outfit based in Coventry, England, with ties to British intel, has been a major “source” for corporate media stories about the war in Syria and the evil regime of the butcher Assad.

    Needless to say SOHR was always very hostile to Assad and produced numerous propaganda reports that were then picked up and disseminated widely by big Media.

    Last year, SOHR nonetheless admitted in a report that the overwhelming majority of combatants killed on the government side were Syrians whether >50% of the “rebel” fighters had been foreigners.

    So much for your “Syrian uprising” against the “regime”.

    • Agree: Beefcake the Mighty
  368. L.K says:

    A great read about the recent developments in Idlib, Syria.

    PUTIN-ERDOGAN MEETING: A STORM IS EXPECTED OVER THE “MOTHER OF ALL BATTLES” IN IDLIB; AYN AL ARAB IS AT STAKE
    The Turkish-Syrian battle is the battle of the Kurds in Ayn al-Arab, Kobane
    https://ejmagnier.com/2020/03/04/putin-erdogan-meeting-a-storm-is-expected-over-the-mother-of-all-battles-in-idlib-ayn-al-arab-is-at-stake/

    The conflict Erdogan envisions between Russia, Iran and Syria on one side and Turkey on the other would suit the US and Israel. They would be happy to see Presidents Putin and Erdogan sinking into the Syrian quagmire and Hezbollah losing more men in the Levant. Negotiations, intense battles and attempts to reshuffle the military situation are taking place behind the scenes. President Erdogan is trying to improve his military position on the ground before his meeting with President Putin in Moscow tomorrow Thursday- but to no avail. Stormy negotiations can be expected.

    Hezbollah troops during recent night attack to recover the strategic city of Saraqueb.

  369. Talha says:
    @Robjil

    The Syrians you met left.

    Yes, and they have plenty of family in Syria still, all over the country; in the stable parts and the unstable ones. And the ones that left might have stayed IF the Syrian government was competent and transparent enough to not have an economic Congo-level train-wreck on their hands while living large.

    Zion MSM brainwashes us endlessly that regime change

    (sigh) Please read my posts carefully. I never said these people want to overthrow the government, especially violently. I said, that they didn’t like it and had nothing positive to say about it. That includes many of their families living in Syria. Just because you think your government sucks, doesn’t mean you automatically want and armed revolution.

    Your friends fell for the brainwashing.

    Uh hunh, because all true Syrians “love Assad”. And we’ll know that the next time he holds elections and wins 98% of the vote like Mubarak and Saddam used to. Riiiiight.

    So I take it that you don’t know a single Syrian person that you’ve ever even sat down to lunch with. I’ll take their (and those of their families in Syria) opinions over yours.

    Let’s try this shall we? Can you name one serious policy – just one – that the Assad regime is either incompetent with or got wrong?

    I want to ascertain whether this is still a political discussion or a theological one.

    Peace.

    • Replies: @Commentator Mike
  370. Talha says:
    @Iris

    it took your “learned” sheikh another 3 years to wake up to the reality of the Hebrew-Arab Spring

    Well yeah. He is a Muslim scholar, not a well-versed political analyst. Muslim scholars teach jurisprudence and spirituality, they are not experts in geo-political dynamics. He didn’t know all the details about Libya, he was only figuring out what was going on in Syria, at trying to guide people in the direction that he thought was for the good of the Syrian populace. In this, he respectffully disagreed with scholars like Shaykh Ramdan Bouti (may God grant him a high station in paradise) who felt the people should not rebel against the government from the beginning. Obviously, once he (Shaykh Yacoubi) saw what direction thing were going and that there was not of benefit to the Syrian people (which was his motivation for his original stance in the first place), he changed his mind, called for a cessation in fighting and; 1) for the rebels to desist and 2) for the Muslims to fight Daesh.

    evil of Wahhabism?

    Uh no – he’s been calling that out since his younger days:

    Israeli-colonised Morocco

    Should he have gone to Israeli-colonized Russia instead?

    Most Arab teenagers I meet are much smarter than this Syrian Shaikh.

    I find it amusing when non-Muslims try to insult our scholars; you assume we actually care enough about your opinion of them to be hurt in some way. Why would we care?

    his army would have long defected, instead of bravely and patiently fighting a horrible war for 9 terrible years.

    Well, this is exactly the problem. We never will know because his army was teetering on collapse until outside parties like Iran, Hezbollah and Russia came to aid it. The other problem is, we know the opposition was also heavily funded and driven by foreign forces. So we really have no way to know how this would have turned out had all foreign intervention been kept out completely and it had been left solely to the Syrian people to hash out.

    But while they indeed recruit young deluded idealists

    Absolutely. Groups like Daesh are heavily attractive to our low-IQ detritus – seems to be some kind of weeding out mechanism. It would be nice if we could find them an island to work out their extremist aggression on each other and supply them with free chainsaws or something.

    US$ 1000 per months.

    That’s actually pretty impressive, they probably could have gotten away with paying them a tenth of that.

    Peace.

  371. Talha says:
    @L.K

    where Russia calls all the shots, which is completely FALSE…

    Correct, that would be false. Russia doesn’t call ALL the shots. They call some very major ones, especially vis-a-vis what Israel is and is not allowed to bomb inside of the country and who (within the regime) is their friend and gets their patronage and support in order to establish a quid pro quo.

    that Russia CANNOT change that.

    That’s what you stated and that’s what I’m waiting to see find out once the war ends; exactly how accurate that assessment will be. At that point, Iran will not be as much of an asset as a liability, especially if, as your source also stated:
    Israel and Russia enjoy good ties, but Russia will not allow an Israeli-Syrian war to spoil its plans to impose stability in the region.

    Something will have to give. Russia has “good ties” with Israel. It also has ties with Iran (while jostling for positioning). Israel is adamant about NO Iranian/Hezbollah presence in Syria. Something will have to give or be accommodated. What that is, I’m waiting to find out.

    Are you even aware that these ties go back into the 1980s?

    Yeah, so? Saddam was a friend of the US in the 80’s.

    your logic, all or most Iranians hate their government

    I never said ALL Syrians. I said I’ve never come across a single Syrian that had anything good to say about it save one guy. Now does that imply most, I don’t know. I wish I had a good, reliable and impartial source to say. And plenty might dislike it, but would be OK with it if there were some specific reforms here or there.

    what kind of support Assad enjoyed and the result was > 50%

    That’s not all that surprising (given a war condition where many people rally around their government), and I would think this would break down potentially by different regions; some with high support and some with lower support.

    who only figured out that there was something wrong with the “rebellion” by year 2014!!

    Like I said to Iris, he is a religious scholar and theologian, not an expert in politics. He actually started havign misgivings in 2013, when the influence of externally-funded Salafi-Wahhabi elements was starting to become more prominent. By 2014, he was calling for a stop to all fighting.

    seven page DIA declassified report from 2012

    Well yeah – if he had access to a classified DIA report IN 2012, he would have made his judgment then now wouldn’t he? Do you really think that man knew what multiple foreign intelligence agencies were doing in the background and how they were steering things? Why?

    Last year, SOHR nonetheless admitted in a report that the overwhelming majority of combatants killed on the government side were Syrians whether >50% of the “rebel” fighters had been foreigners.

    Makes sense, that’s still a significant number of actual Syrians as opposition fighters though. If you said something like less than 15%, then that would have been a slam dunk for sure.

    Peace.

    • Agree: Maiasta
  372. Talha says:
    @Lo

    No they won’t demand it.

    Well, let’s see what happens after the fighting is over and done. Obviously no negotiations for repatriation can be considered under the current conditions.

    Yet you are telling that Turks must march.

    Nah man, I’m not telling you anything. These words will only affect a Turk who believes he is my brother because God called us brothers. I am not appealing to secularist Turks at all, I have no reason to.

    Having said that, why aren’t Saudis and Gulf Arabs taking Syrians in?

    Same reason why they won’t do much for Palestinians, because their leadership are jerks.

    This isn’t about reconciliation and unity, it is about interests of nations.

    And this is where we part ways. Your outlook on these things and mine simply cannot converge because we have such distinct ideas and definitions of brotherhood and the responsibilities of the same:
    “Turkish society feels grateful towards Muslims in India – and later, Pakistan and Bangladesh as well – from past to present, and describes it as a ‘brother country.’ The situation mostly arose from the story of Indian Muslims sending their belongings as aid to Turkish troops during the Turkish War of the Independence. However, this brotherhood and aid sent by Indian Muslims to the Ottomans dates back before the War of Independence. During the Balkan Wars, the two conflicts that occurred in the Balkan Peninsula from 1912 to 1913, concerned Muslims around India mobilized to create three medical teams that treated wounded Ottoman soldiers.”
    https://www.dailysabah.com/feature/2015/03/26/the-brotherhood-of-two-societies-goes-back-decades

    What I am calling Turks to as my spiritual brothers and what you are calling them to, are not the same…the only difference being, people like me and Turks that think like me tend to have more kids than people who think like you. Those are the breaks.

    Peace.

    • Replies: @Lo
  373. @Lo

    Lo,

    Many of those so-called Syrian refugees in Turkey aren’t Syrians but Pakistanis, Afghans, even some black Africans and Arabs from countries as far as Morocco. OK, I don’t know the percentages, or if anybody truly does, as who can prove who they truly are when they throw their passports and identity papers away as soon as they reach a foreign country and claim whatever they think would give them a greater likelihood of getting UN refugee handouts, getting on the Soros sponsored refugee invasion train, and asylum seeker status – hence “Syrians”?

  374. @Talha

    Talha,

    You are nor using any substantive or persuasive arguments there.

    Can you name one serious policy – just one – that the Assad regime is either incompetent with or got wrong?

    Come on, you could ask the same of anyone about any country, especially USA.

    Colonel Muammar Mohammed Abu Minyar Gaddafi got a lot of things right and still they deposed him. Whatever good he did for most Libyans it wasn’t enough to please his Libyan enemies in exile or their western sponsors but even so they had to use foreign terrorist mercenaries to destroy the country. They just repeated the same in Syria, although obviously Assad doesn’t have the resources or wealth to do as well for the Syrian people like Gaddafi did for his Libyans.

    • Agree: Robjil, Wielgus
    • Replies: @Talha
    , @S
  375. Wielgus says:

    In the 1980s and 1990s, rumours perhaps deliberately disseminated claimed Gaddafi was of Jewish origin. They got some airing in the Western media. At the time he was bidding for Palestinian support but somebody was pushing back.
    In 2011 somebody in the Libyan “opposition” claimed Gaddafi was a Shia. There are virtually none in Libya but clearly the sectarian takfiri card was being played.

    • Replies: @Iris
  376. @Milton

    Your last paragraph is very much correct. At the end of the day this is all scriptural prophecy being fullfilled. The players dont matter. The ultimate fight is for Jerusalem. Been this wY bedore Islam even existed. Sunni vs Shia is just the latest. Before it was the crazy Crusaders from Europe. Before that every other empire. Jerusalem is still a stone of stumbling to the world. The natural mind cant understand such things.
    Israel is commanded not to make any league with other nations either. Netenyahu and crew must not read the scriptures.
    Same with Edrogan. “It is a must that offenses will come – but whoa to the man by which they come”. That goes for all the leaders that play with lives like pawns on a chess board. That goes for external powers too – including NATO leaders. If i may paraphrase what the Apostle Saul noted to his student Timothy…. Some mens sins are open for the world to see (when they are punished) while some they follow them until after they go into the grave…

  377. Talha says:
    @Commentator Mike

    You are nor using any substantive or persuasive arguments there.

    You didn’t get what I was getting at. If I’m dealing with a person who cannot find one thing wrong with a certain government A’s policy. I’m dealing with a guy like Godfree Roberts when it comes to China when I asked him that same question. He could find nothing wrong China has done or a mistake.

    I say the same thing about God.

    Do you get it now?

    Anyway, it’s been a lengthy discussion, I think I’ve said enough to let people think things over and conclude for themselves. And Erdogan is meeting with Putin anyway so we’ll see what happens.

    This will be my last post on this thread.

    Peace.

  378. S says:
    @Commentator Mike

    Colonel Muammar Mohammed Abu Minyar Gaddafi got a lot of things right and still they deposed him.

    Definitely.

    A little over ten years ago, Gaddafi as leader of a loyal client state of the US/UK and as head of the African Union, was spearheading the drive to make a United States of Africa (USA) as part of the US/UK’s long term United States of the World project.

    Yet, still, Gaddafi was destroyed.

    Muammar Gaddafi vows to create ‘United States of Africa’

    Colonel Gaddafi, 66, was elected to lead the 53-nation AU for a year in a closed-door vote during a summit in Addis Ababa.

    Dressed in a gold robe and cap, he made clear his intention to push for an alternative “USA” – a plan he has outlined before and that has met with resistance among fellow African leaders.

    “I hope my term will be a time of serious work and not just words,” he said in his inaugural speech.

    “I shall continue to insist that our sovereign countries work to achieve the United States of Africa,” he said, admitting that African leaders were “not near to a settlement” on the issue.

    https://www.telegraph.co.uk/news/worldnews/africaandindianocean/libya/4436541/Muammar-Gaddafi-vows-to-create-United-States-of-Africa.html

    • Replies: @showmethereal
  379. Iris says:
    @Wielgus

    Thanks for your comment; it is worth reminding how far back the relentless Zio-MSM campaign against President Gaddafi went.

    It is worth remembering too that President Gaddafi is the only foremost political personality to have dared stating in public that Israel murdered President Kennedy when he decided to prevent the Zionist state from acquiring the atomic bomb (3:50).

  380. FB says: • Website
    @Showmethereal

    …it sounds like you are saying the Turkish drones are similar in size to the US drone that the Iranians shot down last year..?

    LOL…

    OK…the US drone that the Iranians shot down is like a Boeing triple seven compared to Turkish drones, which would be more like an ultralight aircraft…

    The Northrop Grumman MQ4 Triton UAV the Iranains shot down…

    This is a 200 million dollar aircraft powered by a Rolls Royce jet engine of the kind you would see on regional airliners like the Embraer…

    Turkish Bayraktar UAV…

    This is a rudimentary, small UAV that uses a Rotax four-cylinder piston engine of 100 hp that is used by thousands of ultralights…

    A Bayraktar drone shot down by the SAA…note the ‘912iS’ on the small piston engine…this is the same engine you can buy for your ultralight for about 14,000 dollars…

    Rotax 912 iS Sport Aircraft Engine

    As for using the S400, obviously you are not going to use it against what is basically a radio-controlled model airplane that can fly maybe 100 mph…

    That is what the Turkish drones are…like model airplanes, the Turkish UAVs are remotely controlled by line of sight radio equipment, not satellite link…

    The hoopla in the mainstream media about the supposed ‘damage’ inflicted by Turkish drones is 99 percent bullshit…these are very small aircraft that can carry only small bombs and missiles…as of the last couple of days, since the SAA has actually brought in air defenses, they have been completely neutralized…[and no, there were no drone ‘strikes’ on Syrian Pantsirs…]

    I will discuss the entire drone issue in more technical detail later today…

    • Replies: @showmethereal
  381. FB says: • Website

    So initial reports coming in of the new ceasefire agreed between Putin and Erdogan for Idlib…

    As I have stated in this thread days ago, the crucial issue is control of the M4 and M5 highways…the M5, which connects Damascus to Aleppo is already fully in Syrian government hands…[Saraqib town, which is the crossroads of the M4 and M5 was briefly occupied by the Turko-terrorists a few days ago, but is now fully under SAA control and with Russian military police presence…]

    The M4, which connects the coastal province of Lattakia [where the Russian Hmeimim air base and Tartus naval base are situated] with Aleppo is still largely in terrorist hands, although the SAA and allies have been pushing from the south and are now sitting very close…

    Even as Erdogan was in Moscow, the Turko-terrorists, led by UN-recognized terrorist outfit Hayat Tahrir Al Sham plus Turkish proxies have tried unsuccessfully to recapture strategic Saraqib…they have been pounded into dust by heavy Russian airstrikes…map showing the Saraqib area and the M4-M5 junction in the town…

    Under this new ceasefire agreement, BOTH the M4 and M5 are to be cleared of terrorists…with joint Russian-Turkish patrols…

    This is exactly the bare minimum I predicted days ago, with regard to any ‘deal’ that Putin may give Erdogan…

    The bottom line is that Erdogan’s bluff has been called…his huffing and puffing and moving of thousands of soldiers and armaments into Idlib amounts to nothing…

    The situation around the M5 is clear cut…it is firmly in the grip of the SAA plus allies…the only question now is how the M4 situation is going to play out in practice, since it is still in the hands of the Turko-terrorists…

    If Turkey does not honor this deal and the Russian patrols along this highway come under terrorist attack, the retribution will surely be very swift and deadly…

    But the bottom line is that the Syrian government has already liberated more than half of the Idlib area since its operation started in December…that is a fact of life now, cemented in the new deal…

    The only good news for Erdogan and his headchoppers is that they get to hang onto Idlib city, for now at least…

    A photo from the Kremlin…

    Highlighted here is the Statue of Catherine the Great…the bane of the Turks in the eighteenth century…LOL

    • Thanks: Commentator Mike
    • Replies: @Lo
    , @Swedish Family
    , @Parfois1
  382. Lo says:
    @Talha

    Well, let’s see what happens after the fighting is over and done. Obviously no negotiations for repatriation can be considered under the current conditions.

    No negotiations period. Assad does not want Sunni Syrians and Sunni Syrians don’t want Assad. Everyone agree on foisting them on Turkey because they will destabilize Turkey, weaken it in future negotiations with Syria, prevent Europe from dealing with them, and increase the influence of hostile Arab regimes within Turkey.

    I’m not telling you anything. These words will only affect a Turk who believes he is my brother because God called us brothers.

    I am not talking for Turks, I am pointing the historic realities. While you talk about verses and ummah Turks are getting shafted by Arabs everywhere from Syria to Libya to Sudan to Mediterranean. Their hostility does not stop just in borders of Arab countries, they are collaborating with everyone as long as it is against Turks. Just recently both UAE and KSA agreed to make huge investments in Greece, of all countries.

    Same reason why they won’t do much for Palestinians, because their leadership are jerks.

    Leadership is the representation of a people’s will, culture and intelligence. Sometimes leaderships without people’s will may arise, but never without the said nation’s culture or intelligence. If Arabs themselves are unable to fight their fights, don’t expect others to bleed for them. Regardless of any excuse, fact is that strongest/richest Arab countries are working overtime against Turks.

    Turkish society feels grateful towards Muslims in India – and later, Pakistan and Bangladesh as well – from past to present, and describes it as a ‘brother country.’ The situation mostly arose from the story of Indian Muslims sending their belongings as aid to Turkish troops during the Turkish War of the Independence.

    As I said, I don’t have problems with Muslims other than Arabs. Indian and Pakistani Muslims are both spiritual people, and they do follow principles of their religion, thus they have integrity. Whether their principles are right or wrong is not my concern, but they do have integrity. Arabs on the other hand, use these people as slaves and let them live in abject conditions in their desert cities. They also support radical Wahhabis around the world and make all Muslims look bad. You can blame their leadership, but I haven’t come across a Saudi or Emirati who complained about their governments.

    the only difference being, people like me and Turks that think like me tend to have more kids than people who think like you

    It is better to have one, two or no kids than have 10 kids and let them die for Arabs who will say “it was Allah’s will that these people died, now let me eat some humus and praise our princes.”

    Arabs, historically, talk a lot about honor and virtues in their poetry and literature. However, as far as I can see, their honor was lost in desert when they back-stabbed their “ummah brothers,” the Turks. Until they reclaim their honor, they shall live without honor.

  383. Lo says:
    @FB

    Russian troll is working overtime, how about showing the other side of the photo?

    Highlighted here is the Statue of Catherine the Great…the bane of the Turks in the eighteenth century…

    You should also talk about Catherine I. The wife of Peter.

    Hopefully Turks will get a lesson from this behavior and end any cooperation with Russia as soon as possible. It would also be a good idea to put Russians in front statues of Crimean khans in future meetings, Ottoman vassals that trashed Russians for centuries.

    Turkey should:

    – Stop all cooperation with Russians,
    – Cancel Russian contracts, including gas and nuclear plants,
    – Make it harder / impossible for Russians to pass through straits,
    – Support revolts in oblasts,
    – Stop trade with Russia,
    – Push to kick Russia out of Swift,
    – Open Black Sea to NATO without restrictions,
    – Continue pushing for NATO membership of Georgia,
    – Establish itself in Central Asia instead of wasting time with Arabs,
    – Start covert ops to attack Russians through proxies in Syria and Libya.

    The moment Erdogan and Trump are gone, Russians can stop celebrating.

    • LOL: L.K
    • Troll: Commentator Mike
  384. @FB

    his is exactly the bare minimum I predicted days ago, with regard to any ‘deal’ that Putin may give Erdogan…

    The bottom line is that Erdogan’s bluff has been called…his huffing and puffing and moving of thousands of soldiers and armaments into Idlib amounts to nothing…

    This is basically what most people expected all along — that the offense was merely a face-saving gesture / negotiation tactic from Erdogan. Still, as Reiner Tor likes to remind us, one too many of these near-calls, and we might have a major war on our hands.

  385. Alfred says:
    @Iris

    Thank you.

    I agree that everything going on in the Middle East is linked to oil, gas and pipelines.

    It always amazes me how few history books ever mention the flows of resources and money in conflicts. Things like “Where did Napoleon get his money from?”

    Their underlying assumption is that guys stand on soapboxes and motivate entire populations.

  386. Alfred says:
    @Lo

    By being rude, you have confirmed that you are a troll and that I can safely ignore any drivel that you write here. 🙂

    • Agree: bluedog
    • Replies: @Lo
  387. Alfred says:
    @Milton

    I entirely agree with you. It is a spiritual war and the Satanists are losing. 🙂

  388. Parfois1 says:
    @Iris

    Once again we can rely on Iris to come up with the goods and a very convincing argument about “Arab Springs” and other rebellions in the Middle East. How every major event in that region this century happens to be for the benefit of Zionistan and US elites.

    I suspect she has access to a large trove of official secrets and I will not be surprised when (not if) she reveals the source of the coronavirus epidemic. Wait and see!

    To Iris: Take care. See what happens to those who cross the US and Zionistan cabal. Mes plus cordiales salutations.

    • Replies: @Iris
  389. @Milton

    Perhaps, as well as the bible, the Russians have also read Sun Tzu and the Art of War. They know the stakes, the risks and the need to avoid any great mistakes. If the bible is your guide, pray. The Russians appear to favour a more pragmatic approach.

  390. @FB

    Ok thanks… Yes I would like the technical details on the drones and how countries defend against them… That’s the most interesting part to me.

    • Replies: @Smith
  391. @S

    Most everyone in the know will tell you Gaddaffi’s great “sin” was that he sought to move all oil producing nations in Africa to a gold backed currency and off the US dollar.

    • Agree: Beefcake the Mighty
    • Replies: @Commentator Mike
  392. Lo says:
    @Alfred

    Not all rude people are trolls, but all fallacious arguments come from trolls.

  393. Smith says:
    @showmethereal

    Drones are easily shot down by SPAAG e.g. Russian Pantsir and/or fighter jets since drones fly relatively slow compared to actual planes. Both LNA in Libya and SAA in Syria have now consistently shot down turkish drones:
    https://southfront.org/in-photos-turkish-combat-drone-shot-down-by-syrian-army-in-greater-idlib/
    https://southfront.org/lna-shots-down-turkish-ucav-and-imposes-no-fly-zone-over-tripoli-photos/

    Drones are still dangerous if you try spamming them in very large number, but that means the quality of the drones go down.

    Anyway, this ceasefire will soon fall, all it shows is that Erdog isn’t willing to commit, this means he’s gonna lose.

    Greek borders are holding too. I’m more worried about german NGOs and israeli NGOs ferrying out invaders than greeks losing their borders.

  394. Parfois1 says:
    @FB

    @FB

    Highlighted here is the Statue of Catherine the Great…the bane of the Turks in the eighteenth century…LOL

    A fitting allegory. Pity it was not placed in a more symbolic position, say overlooking the wannabe sultan.

    Now, about your stellar and comprehensive demolition job on starstruck Talha and his Lo(w) sidekick, which you carried out with great skill and elan – and some blistering animus – I suggest to spare him further humiliations because, after all, he has been endowed by the Leader Unz with “elevation” and what you exposed does not match that description, thereby it could impinge negatively on the reputation of this forum. Besides, it was not his fault that the star was stuck on his head, perhaps as a target… so a bit of compassion is in order.

    On the other hand:

    The main revelation that comes from the fray is the demarcation line traced between those who support the USisrael common and war criminals in their quest for realizing the Zioneocons’ project for the enslavement of other nations opposed to their hegemonic plan. In my book, anyone who consciously and deliberately supports such monstrous criminality (the mother of all crimes as per definition of Nuremberg) are themselves criminals and that it taints with criminality everything they do or say.

    As a general principle, I contribute to this forum in a pedagogic fashion – “opening a few windows” as mentioned on another thread – and disdain arguments with people who are obsessively rooted to “causes” that are inimical to the most basic notions of morality, such as Talha and his Lo(w) sidekick (there are a few others). There are those who – out of ignorance and brainwashing which affects many commenters – may benefit from a reasoned discussion about matters outside their intellectual purview. And there are those who are fully committed to an evil concept of man, committed to the project of the criminal elites and they are less than vermin because vermin cannot reason and one does not reason with vermin.

    But I’m glad and tip my hat to the indomitable variety of enlightened Don Quixotes who don’t give quarters to the vermin and squash the scourge. Hooray!

    • Replies: @Lo
    , @FB
  395. @showmethereal

    Most everyone in the know will tell you Gaddaffi’s great “sin” was that he sought to move all oil producing nations in Africa to a gold backed currency and off the US dollar.

    Should that be qualified as a “mistake” or not? Going against Americans and the Jews is bound to lead to one’s destruction, and of one’s nation. They want your wealth in their hands not helping out your own people. But what is a good, honest man supposed to do?

    • Replies: @Showmethereal
  396. @Commentator Mike

    Hence I put sin in quotation marks. I am not in favor of any nation dominating all others. Gaddafi’s “mistake” was trusting NATO and giving up his nuke program. That is why Kim will not give up his in North Korea (which is far more advanced than Gaddafi or Saddam or Iran’s). No question Gaddafi had a couple loose screws – but it is also a fact that Libya had the highest standard of living on the continent. His proposals would have created more wealth for Africans… So he was absolutely right to try to create a gold backed currency and a union of African nations. The economic union is moving forward – but the currency issue is dead. No other leader in the region will dare take it up. Only Maduro in Venezuela is holding out hope. But that is the reason Africa and Venezuela – and the rest of the developing world are increasing financial ties with China and even Russia. Deep down they are all hoping a crypto currency will break the slave chains to the US dollar. Deep down even Europe hopes so.

    • Thanks: Commentator Mike
  397. Iris says:
    @Parfois1

    Cher Parfois, I am not privy to any secret information, just able to find it on the Internet 🙂

    Talking of official secrets, here is one just for you: rumour has it that the King of Saudi Arabia, Salmane bin Abdelaziz has died, and that his son Mohamed Ben Salmane has arrested and incarcerated his uncle Ahmed Ben Abdelaziz, the former heir to the throne, to prevent anything “untoward” from happening. Hopefully he won’t be using a saw for the purpose 🙂
    Tres grosses bises.

  398. Lo says:
    @Parfois1

    I am glad you are not involved with your pedagogy as it would reduce everyone’s intelligence. It takes a special person to consider me Talha’s sidekick after all the disagreements above. Having said that, it is funny how you all gave yourselves away far too easily. By calling each other’s cheap propaganda (such as using fake, selective, distorted info / photos) as demolition job lol. The only thing demolished here is cheap USSR style propaganda. You guys had a good run past few years by utilizing digital space sooner for electronic warfare, but people are waking up already. Next.

    • Troll: Commentator Mike, FB
  399. I’ve been a fan for a long time, the only thing is when you phrase things like the “AngloZionist Empire” you make it sound like a partnership, when in fact it’s a one way street. Zionists get everything they want, from the Golan Heights to anti-BDS legislation, while nine Anglo women and children can be burned alive 70 miles from our border, and literally nothing happens in response.

    • Agree: Iris
  400. FB says: • Website
    @Parfois1

    Great to hear from you Parf…

    Yes it looks like VVP’s message to Erdogan was just what we expected…Remove Kebab…

    Pity [Catherine statue] was not placed in a more symbolic position, say overlooking the wannabe sultan.

    LOL…as it turns out, there was an even more fitting piece of sculpture overlooking the mini-sultan…

    Of course it’s coincidence: Kremlin spokesman denies trolling Erdogan with bronzework of Russo-Turkish war

    The sculpture on the mantle is called Russian army crossing over the Balkan Mountains in 1877…the campaign that kicked the Ottoman Turks out of most of Europe…by Evgeny Lanceray…

    Thanks for chipping in here…hope the conversation continues on Saker’s most recent piece here, post Moscow agreement…

    Btw…I’ve been following your exploits too…greatly enjoyed your post a little while ago on Fred Reed’s piece about bygone days and chemistry sets…your story about childhood adventure really took me back…thanks…

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