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Race and Crime in America
The unspoken statistical reality of urban crime over the last quarter century.
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ViewAsPDF2 The noted science fiction writer Philip K. Dick once declared that “Reality is what continues to exist whether you believe in it or not.” Such an observation should be kept in mind when we consider some of the touchier aspects of American society.

Recall the notorious case of Daniel Patrick Moynihan, whose 1965 report on the terrible deterioration in the condition of the black American family aroused such a firestorm of denunciation and outrage in liberal circles that the topic was rendered totally radioactive for the better part of a generation. Eventually the continuing deterioration reached such massive proportions that the subject was taken up again by prominent liberals in the 1980s, who then declared Moynihan a prophetic voice, unjustly condemned.

This contentious history of racially-charged social analysis was certainly in the back of my mind when I began my quantitative research into Hispanic crime rates in late 2009. One traditional difficulty in producing such estimates had been the problematical nature of the data. Although the FBI Uniform Crime Reports readily show the annual totals of black and Asian criminal perpetrators, Hispanics are generally grouped together with whites and no separate figures are provided, thereby allowing all sorts of extreme speculation by those so inclined.

In order to distinguish reality from vivid imagination, a major section of my analysis focused on the data from America’s larger cities, exploring the correlations between their FBI-reported crime rates and their Census-reported ethnic proportions. If urban crime rates had little relation to the relative size of the local Hispanic population, this would indicate that Hispanics did not have unusually high rates of criminality. Furthermore, densely populated urban centers have almost always had far more crime than rural areas or suburbs, so restricting the analysis to cities would reduce the impact of that extraneous variable, which might otherwise artificially inflate the national crime statistics for a heavily urbanized population group such as Hispanics.

My expectations proved entirely correct, and the correlations between Hispanic percentages and local crime rates were usually quite close to the same figures for whites, strongly supporting my hypothesis that the two groups had fairly similar rates of urban criminality despite their huge differences in socio-economic status. But that same simple calculation yielded a remarkably strong correlation between black numbers and crime, fully confirming the implications of the FBI racial data on perpetrators.

This presented me with an obvious quandary. The topic of my article was “Hispanic crime” and my research findings were original and potentially an important addition to the public policy debate. Yet the black crime figures in my charts and graphs were so striking that I realized they might easily overshadow my other results, becoming the focus of an explosive debate that would inevitably deflect attention away from my central conclusion. Therefore, I chose to excise the black results, perhaps improperly elevating political prudence over intellectual candor.

I further justified this decision by noting that black crime in America had been an important topic of public discussion for at least the last half-century. I reasoned that my findings must surely have been quietly known for decades to most social scientists in the relevant fields, and hence would add little to existing knowledge. However, since that time a few private discussions have led me to seriously question that assumption, as has the emotion-laden but vacuous media firestorm surrounding the George Zimmerman trial. I have therefore now decided to publish an expanded and unexpurgated version of my analysis, which I believe may have important explanatory value as well as some interesting policy implications.

The Pattern of Urban Crime in America

My central methodology is simple. I obtained the crime rates and ethnic percentages of America’s larger cities from official government data sources and calculated the population-weighted cross-correlations. In order to minimize the impact of statistical outliers, I applied this same approach to hundreds of different datasets: each of the years 1985 through 2011; homicide rates, robbery rates, and violent crime overall; all large cities of 250,000 and above and also restricted only to major cities of at least 500,000. I obtained these urban crime correlations with respect to the percentages of local whites, blacks, and Hispanics, but excluded Asians since their numbers were quite insignificant until recently (here and throughout this article, “white” shall refer to non-Hispanic whites).

I also attempted to estimate these same results for the overall immigrant population. The overwhelming majority of immigrants since 1965 have been Hispanic or Asian while conversely the overwhelming majority of those two population groups have a relatively recent immigrant family background. So the combined population of Hispanics and Asians constitutes a good proxy for the immigrant community, and allows us to determine the immigrant relationship to crime rates.

Presented graphically, these various urban crime correlations are as follows:








These charts demonstrate that over the last twenty-five years the weighted correlations for each of the crime categories against the percentages of whites, Hispanics, and “immigrants” (i.e. Hispanics-plus-Asians) have fluctuated in the general range of -0.20 to -0.60. Interestingly enough, for most of the last decade the presence of Hispanics and immigrants has become noticeably less associated with crime than the presence of whites, although that latter category obviously exhibits large regional heterogeneity. Meanwhile, in the case of blacks, the weighted crime correlations have steadily risen from 0.60 to around 0.80 or above, almost always now falling within between 0.75 and 0.85.

These particular calculations do rely upon several minor methodological choices. For example, I have used the 2000 Census population thresholds for selecting the sixty-odd large cities in my dataset, while I could have chosen some other year instead. The substantial annual fluctuations in the urban ethnic percentages provided by the Census-ACS estimates led me to instead use the interpolated Census figures for all years. The annual urban population totals used by the FBI sometimes differ slightly from the Census numbers, and I used the former for population-weighting purposes. However, all my results were quite robust with respect to these particular decisions, and modifying them would produce results largely indistinguishable from those presented above.


On a more difficult matter, there is always the possibility of local bias in FBI crime statistics, with the data for some cities possibly being more reliable or comprehensive than for others. But the reporting rate for homicides is widely accepted as close to 100 percent, and the close correspondence between the results for this “gold standard” crime category and those for the robbery and violent crime rates tends to confirm the validity of the latter. In any event, we would expect the highest-crime areas to be those most likely to suffer from under-reporting problems, so we would expect our figures to somewhat underestimate the true size of the correlations.

It is important to recognize that within the world of academic sociology discovering an important correlation in the range of 0.80 or above is quite remarkable, almost extraordinary. And even these correlations between black population prevalence and urban crime rates may actually tend to significantly understate the reality. All these correlations were performed on a city-wide aggregate basis. The New York City numbers include both the Upper East Side and Brownsville, Los Angeles both Bel Air and Watts, Chicago the Gold Coast and Englewood, with each city’s totals averaging those of both the wealthiest and the most dangerous districts. This crude methodology tends to obscure the local pattern of crime, which usually varies tremendously between different areas, often roughly corresponding to the lines of racial segregation. It is hardly a secret that impoverished black areas do have far higher crime rates than affluent white ones.

If instead we relied upon smaller geographical units such as neighborhoods, our results would be much more precise, but ethnicity data is provided by zip code while crime data is reported by precinct, so a major research undertaking would be required to match these dissimilar aggregational units for calculation purposes. However, the apparent geographical pattern of crime in these cities and most others might lead us to suspect that our national racial correlations would become substantially greater under such a more accurate approach, perhaps often reaching or even exceeding the 0.90 level. The inescapable conclusion is that local urban crime rates in America seem to be almost entirely explained by the local racial distribution.

But could such a strikingly simple sociological truth possibly be correct? After all, academic scholars have long advanced a wide variety of different socio-economic explanations for crime, and these have often been heavily promoted by pundits and the media. Commonly cited factors have been urban density, especially in the case of high-rise housing projects, and local poverty. There is also the relative number of police officers to consider. We should certainly compare the possible influence of these factors with the ethnic ones examined above.

Since the geographical borders of a city are generally fixed, average population densities are easy to calculate and in recent years their apparent impact upon crime rates has been negligible, whether for homicide, robbery, or violent crime in general. For the last dozen years, the density/crime correlations have always ranged between 0.20 and -0.20 and were usually close to zero. Perhaps many of us have an intuitive mental image of densely populated East Coast cities being natural hotbeds of crime. But this appears incorrect: crime rates and urban density seem to have little connection.

What about the sizes of the various urban police departments? Although precise comparisons are sometimes difficult, the Bureau of Justice Statistics periodically publishes official reports on the subject, and the latest 2007 study lists the numerical totals of America’s fifty largest urban police forces, allowing us to calculate the weighted correlations between these per capita policing levels and the corresponding crime rates of the years 2007-2011. We discover that there actually exists a moderately strong positive correlation, generally falling in the range 0.30-0.60: the more police, the more crime. Although this might seem counterintuitive, the explanation becomes obvious once we reverse the direction of causation. Higher crime rates usually persuade local authorities to hire additional police officers.

Finally, although urban crime rates do track local economic conditions, the relationship is far from tight. For the years 2006-2011, the Census-ACS provides estimates of the Mean Income, Median Income, and Poverty Rates for each urban center, and we can easily perform the same calculations we did in the racial case. The correlations between the Mean Income and Median Income levels and the various crime categories generally fall in the range of -0.40 to -0.60, being moderately rather than strongly negative. Even the correlation between Poverty Rate and crime—supported by the obvious truism that most street criminals are poor—is hardly enormous, falling between 0.50 and 0.70, and usually well below our racial figures.

The relative strength of these different correlations may be seen by a chart superimposing the economic and ethnic results for the last dozen years of robbery rate correlations for our major cities. Although the hard economic times since 2008 have considerably increased the influence of the poverty correlate, that factor is still considerably less significant than the racial one.


Indeed, the race/crime correlation so substantially exceeds the poverty/crime relationship that much of the latter may simply be a statistical artifact due to most urban blacks being poor. Consider that both blacks and Hispanics currently have similar national poverty rates in the one-third range, more than double the white figure, and each constitutes well over 20% of our urban population. However, major cities with substantial poverty but few blacks usually tend to have far lower levels of crime. For example, El Paso and Atlanta are comparable in size and have similar poverty rates, but the latter has eight times the robbery rate and over ten times the homicide rate. Within California, Oakland approximately matches Santa Ana in size and poverty, but has several times the rate of crime. Thus, it seems plausible that removing the black population from our calculation might actually reduce the residual poverty/crime correlation for non-blacks to a moderate or even a low figure.

To some extent, this surprising possibility is merely a statistical syllogism. Whenever the correlation to a single factor approaches unity, no other non-equivalent item may have a large, independent impact. And failing to recognize the existence of such a single, overwhelming factor might lead us to misidentify numerous other spurious influences, whose apparent causal importance actually derives from their own correlations with the primary item. For many years, the black connection to local crime has been so strong as to almost eliminate the possible role of any other variable.

We must obviously be cautious in interpreting the meaning of these statistical findings since correlation does not necessarily imply causation. Over the last few years the crime correlation for Hispanic or Hispanic-plus-Asian numbers has been substantially more negative than the same figure for whites, but this does not necessarily prove that whites are much more likely to commit urban crime, though it would tend to rule out the contrary possibility that Hispanics or immigrants have far higher rates of criminality.

However, if we examine the official FBI arrest statistics, we find that these seem to support the most straightforward interpretation of our racial crime correlations. For example, blacks in America were over six times as likely to be arrested for homicide in 2011 as non-blacks and over eight times as likely to be arrested for robbery; the factors for previous years were usually in a similar range. The accuracy of this racial pattern of arrests is generally confirmed by the corresponding racial pattern of victim-identification statements, also aggregated by the FBI. Indeed, several years ago the liberal Sentencing Project organization estimated that some one-third of all American black men are already convicted criminals by their 20s, and the fraction would surely be far higher for those living in urban areas.

A sense of the real world impact of these grim statistics may be found in the stratified 2011 Census-ACS data for major American cities. The three urban centers with the largest black populations are New York City, Chicago, and Philadelphia, and together they contain over one-third more adult black women than black men. The corresponding national shortfall of black males runs well into the millions, partly accounting for the notorious “marriage gap” problems faced by women of their background. Those millions of missing black men are generally dead or in prison.

Over the last few years, the official publications of the Bureau of Justice Statistics have made it increasingly difficult to determine the racial totals of inmates in state prisons and local jails but the figures from the mid-2000s probably still provide a reasonable estimate, and I had used these in my 2010 article. Since crime is overwhelmingly committed by young males, for comparative purposes we should normalize all these incarceration totals against the base population of adult males in their prime-crime years, and the results are summarized in my previously published chart, reprinted here.


Since the mid-1990s, the issue of street crime has mostly dropped off the front pages of our national newspapers and disappeared from the public debate. Meanwhile, black Americans have gained much greater visibility in the upper reaches of our national elites, while Barack Obama has been elected and reelected as our first black president. This might seem to indicate that traditional racial cleavages in our society have become less substantial. Furthermore, with such enormous numbers of young black men now in prison, we might naturally expect that the racial character of American urban crime rates has sharply declined over the last couple of decades. However, the quantitative evidence demonstrates the exact opposite situation, as may be seen by examining the combined twenty-five year trajectories of our various racial crime correlations, which have steadily grown more extreme. The images shown on our film screens or television sets may portray one America, but the actual data reveals a very different country.


Once we accept the reality of these stark racial facts, we must naturally wonder about the causes, and also why the historical trends seem to have been moving in exactly the wrong direction over most of the last quarter-century. Certainly many theoretical explanations have been advanced, both from the Left and the Right, and whole library shelves have been filled with books on the subject since the urban violence of the 1960s. A short article is no place for me to summarize such a vast literature on a contentious topic, especially when I can provide no original insights of my own. But good theoretical analysis requires a solid factual grounding, and my main purpose here is to establish those facts, which others may then choose to interpret howsoever they wish. Absent such information, any national dialogue becomes an exercise in empty ideological posturing.

The Racial Subtext of American Electoral Politics

Racial issues have traditionally been among the most highly charged in American public life, and the nexus of crime and race has been exceptionally contentious for many decades. Under these circumstances respectable scholars tend to be cautious in discussing or merely investigating this topic, and the mainstream media is usually even more gun-shy. The striking racial findings presented above require only trivial statistical calculations and may be glimpsed in any casual inspection of the crime rankings of our major cities. But I remain uncertain to what extent they are already recognized by our experts in social policy.

For example, when I presented my correlation results to one very prominent conservative social scientist, he found them shocking and remarkable, and said he had never imagined that the statistical relationship between race and crime was so extremely strong. But when I showed the same data to an equally prominent liberal academic, he took the information in stride and said he assumed that almost all experts were already quietly aware of the general facts. The reactions of other knowledgeable individuals fell all along this spectrum ranging from surprise to familiarity. Knowledge so explosive that it is usually unspoken and unreported may easily remain unknown even to many of our foremost intellectuals.

But whether or not most of our ruling elites explicitly recognize the stark racial character of American crime, the reality still exists, and we should consider exploring whether these unpublicized facts may have had broader influences in our society, possibly in seemingly unrelated areas. After all, urban crime has frequently been a leading issue in American public life, during some periods ranking as one of the most important. Certain matters may not be easily discussed in polite company these days, but if even just a portion of the citizenry is intuitively aware of the situation, their attitudes might have broader ripple effects throughout the entire population. Is there any substantial evidence for this?


Consider the electoral behavior of American whites, and especially their inclination to support either Democratic or Republican candidates. Because of gerrymandering, most individual congressional districts are overwhelmingly aligned with one party or another, and general elections are a mere formality; this is often also true of statewide races for senator or governor. However, in presidential elections both parties almost always field viable national candidates with a reasonable chance of winning, so these provide the best means of gauging white political alignment. And for these campaigns, the racial lines are clearly established, with the modern Republicans being the “white party,” drawing over 90% of their support from that demographic group, while over 90% of blacks regularly vote the Democratic ticket, which also usually attracts the overwhelming majority of other non-white voters.

As I pointed out in a 2011 article, there has been a striking statewide pattern to white voting behavior over the last couple of decades. Many conservative activists and media pundits have spent years attacking immigrants, illegal or otherwise, and have regularly denounced the cultural threat posed by the growing population of non-English-speakers or non-white foreigners. Nevertheless, the empirical fact is that presence or absence of large numbers of Hispanics or Asians in a given state seems to have virtually no impact upon white voting patterns. Meanwhile, there exists a strong relationship between the size of a state’s black population and the likelihood that local whites will favor the Republicans. The weighted-average correlations between the racial compositions of the fifty states and the degree to which their white voters favor Republican presidential candidates is summarized in the following chart.


GOP leaders are always fearful of being denounced as “racist” by the major media, and often seek to camouflage the underlying source of their electoral support by adopting the most extreme forms of tokenism, promoting black party leaders and spokesmen while heavily recruiting black candidates and focusing almost entirely upon non-racial issues. Conservative activists often rhetorically identify themselves as heirs to the “party of Lincoln” and may even accuse their Democratic opponents of seeking to keep blacks in Welfare State bondage. But the actual data tells a very different story about the likely sources of Republican support.

The strength of this pattern may be seen at its extremes. Mississippi is the state with the highest black percentage and across all six elections its white population was the most likely to vote Republican, with the figures recently running at nearly the 90% level. Louisiana, Georgia, and South Carolina are generally clustered together as the next blackest in population, and in most elections their white populations were the next most likely to support the Republican ticket, although being sometimes exceeded by the whites of Alabama, the fifth or sixth blackest state during those decades.

By contrast, consider the three states with the largest non-white percentages: Hawaii, California, and New Mexico. The whites of the first two have actually been far less likely to vote Republican than whites nationwide, while those in New Mexico fall close to the national average. This tends to confirm the national statistical results that the widespread presence of non-whites, even in overwhelming numbers, seems to have little impact upon white voting behavior.

While I would not argue that black crime is the sole determining factor behind the racial polarization in white voting behavior, I do suspect it is one of the largest contributors. Empirically, the presence of blacks causes whites to vote the “law-and-order” Republican ticket, while the presence of Hispanics or Asians seems to have negligible political impact.

Nevertheless, we should remain cautious in interpreting these results. For example, although these national correlations are certainly substantial, they are almost entirely due to the weighting of the Southern states, in which blacks are almost 20% of the total population and racial tensions have traditionally been the strongest. In non-Southern states, the correlations are nil, perhaps partly because blacks are found in far smaller numbers, being less than 9% of the total.

The Hidden Motive for Heavy Immigration?

Consider also the highly contentious issue of immigration. Obviously, much of the underlying conflict is purely economic in character, with workers aware that restricting the supply of available labor will protect their bargaining power over wages, while businesses seek to maximize their profits by expanding the pool of potential employees, whether low-skilled or high-tech.

But all involved participants quickly discover that despite endless protestations to the contrary there is also a clear racial subtext, usually accounting for the emotionality of the debate. For the last half-century, the overwhelming majority of immigrants, especially illegal ones, have been non-white, and the resulting racial fears have been a central motivating force driving many of the most zealous restrictionists, who fear being swamped by a tidal wave of “the Other.” However, I believe that racial considerations, whether fully conscious or not, might also be found on the other side of the issue, helping to explain why our national leadership today so uniformly endorses very heavy foreign immigration.

America’s ruling financial, media, and political elites are largely concentrated in three major urban centers—New York City, Los Angeles, and Washington, D.C.—and all three have contained large black populations, including a violent underclass. During the early 1990s, many observers feared New York City was headed for urban collapse due to its enormously high crime rates, Los Angeles experienced the massive and deadly Rodney King Riots, and Washington often vied for the title of American homicide capital. In each city, the violence and crime were overwhelmingly committed by black males, and although white elites were rarely the victims, their fears were quite palpable.

One obvious reaction to these concerns was strong political support for a massive national crackdown on crime, and the prison incarceration of black men increased by almost 500% during the two decades after 1980. But even after such enormous rates of imprisonment, official FBI statistics indicate that blacks today are still over 600% as likely to commit homicide than non-blacks and their robbery rate is over 700% larger; these disparities seem just as high with respect to Hispanic or Asian immigrants as they are for whites. Thus, replacing a city’s blacks with immigrants would tend to lower local crime rates by as much as 90%, and during the 1990s American elites may have become increasingly aware of this important fact, together with the obvious implications for their quality of urban life and housing values.

According to Census data, between 1990 and 2010 the number of Hispanics and Asians increased by one-third in Los Angeles, by nearly 50% in New York City, and by over 70% in Washington, D.C. The inevitable result was to squeeze out much of the local black population, which declined, often substantially, in each location. And all three cities experienced enormous drops in local crime, with homicide rates falling by 73%, 79%, and 72% respectively, perhaps partly as a result of these underlying demographic changes. Meanwhile, the white population increasingly shifted toward the affluent, who were best able to afford the sharp rise in housing prices. It is an undeniable fact that American elites, conservative and liberal alike, are today almost universally in favor of very high levels of immigration, and their possible recognition of the direct demographic impact upon their own urban circumstances may be an important but unspoken factor in shaping their views.

As an anecdotal example, consider the case of Matthew Yglesias, a prominent young liberal blogger living in Washington, DC. A couple of years ago he recounted on his blogsite how he was suddenly attacked from behind and seriously beaten by two young men while walking home one evening from a dinner party. At first he was quite cagey about identifying his attackers, but he eventually admitted they were blacks, possibly engaged in the growing racial practice of urban “polar bear hunting” so widely publicized by the Drudge Report and other rightwing websites.

Few matters are more likely to trouble the minds of our Harvard-educated intellectual elite than fear of suffering random violent assaults while they walk the streets of their own city. Yet no respectable progressive would possibly focus on the racial character of such an attack, let alone advocate the removal of local blacks as a precautionary measure. Instead Yglesias suggested that housing-density issues might have been responsible and that better urban planning would reduce crime.

But consider that support for very high levels of foreign immigration is an impeccably liberal cause, and such policies inevitably displace and remove huge numbers of urban blacks; it is easy to imagine that Yglesias quietly redoubled his pro-immigration zeal in the wake of the incident. Multiply this personal example a thousand-fold, and perhaps an important strand of the tremendous pro-immigration ideological framework of American elites becomes apparent. The more conspiratorially-minded racialists, bitterly hostile to immigration, sometimes speculate that there is a diabolical plot by our ruling power structure to “race-replace” America’s traditional white population. Perhaps a hidden motive along these lines does indeed help explain some support for heavy immigration, but I suspect that the race being targeted for replacement is not the white one.

Such factors may also play a role outside the major urban centers discussed above and even where least suspected. Among all American businessmen, Silicon Valley executives are probably strongest in their pro-immigration advocacy, as indicated by the major political advertising campaign recently launched by top technology CEOs, organized together as “” Obviously, their own cosmopolitan background and desire for an unlimited supply of inexpensive, high-quality engineers is their primary motive. However, widespread sentiments in favor of lesser-educated immigrant groups such as undocumented Latin Americans also seem quite strong, and we find Steve Jobs’ wealthy widow Laurene Powell Jobs focusing her efforts almost exclusively on that particular aspect of the legislation, with her sentiments hardly being discordant with those of her wealthy peer group. Could hidden racial factors be part of the explanation? That might seem quite unlikely since Silicon Valley’s black population has been very low for decades, running in the 3 or 4 percent range.

However, a closer examination reveals a very different situation. The small city of Palo Alto is one of the most desirable local residential areas, home to the late Steve Jobs, as well as the current CEOs of Apple, Google, Facebook, Yahoo, and a host of other companies; by some estimates, it may contain the world’s highest per capita concentration of billionaires. On three sides, Palo Alto abuts communities of a similar character: Mountain View, containing Google; the Stanford University campus; and Menlo Park, the center of America’s venture capital industry. But on the fourth side, mostly separated by Highway 101, lies East Palo Alto, which for decades was a dangerous ghetto, overwhelmingly black.

I moved back to Palo Alto from New York City in 1992, and that year East Palo Alto recorded America’s highest per capita murder rate; although relatively few of the homicides, robberies, and rapes spilled across the border, enough did to leave many people uneasy. Gated communities and even street fences are quite uncommon in the region, and for years anyone who wished could go to the home of Steve Jobs and walk around his yard or even peer into his windows. Meanwhile, the sort of harsh racial profiling widely practiced in some large cities was completely abhorrent to the socially liberal citizenry. One may easily imagine a scenario in which escalating street crime from the ghetto next door might have produced a collapse in high housing prices and sparked a massive flight of the wealthy.

One reason this did not occur was the vast influx of impoverished immigrants from south of the border that swept into the less affluent communities of the region during those same years and rapidly transformed the local demographics. Between 1980 and 2010 the combined Hispanic population of Santa Clara and San Mateo counties nearly tripled. A city offering cheap housing such as East Palo Alto saw far greater relative increases, reversing its demographics during that period from 60% black and 14% Hispanic to 16% black and 65% Hispanic. Over the last twenty years, the homicide rate in that small city dropped by 85%, with similar huge declines in other crime categories as well, thereby transforming a miserable ghetto into a pleasant working-class community, now featuring new office complexes, luxury hotels, and large regional shopping centers. Multi-billionaire Facebook CEO Mark Zuckerberg and his wife recently purchased a large $9 million home just a few hundred feet from the East Palo Alto border, a decision that would have been unthinkable during the early 1990s. Technology executives are highly quantitative individuals, skilled in pattern recognition, and I find it difficult to believe that they have all remained completely oblivious to these local racial factors.


However the powerful role of immigration in transforming the crime rates of important urban centers probably had a much smaller impact on the national totals. The combined black populations of New York City, Washington, and Los Angeles may have dropped by half a million over the last two decades, but the individuals pushed out did not disappear from the world; they merely moved to Atlanta or Baltimore or Riverside. But from the personal perspective of America’s ruling elite, they did indeed disappear.

For over thirty years, local black activists in Washington, D.C. have accused the ruling white power structure of promoting “The Plan,” a deliberate strategy of removing most of the black population from our national capital and replacing them with whites; and this “conspiracy theory” has been endlessly ridiculed as absurdly paranoid nonsense by our elite Washington media. Meanwhile, during this same thirty year period, Washington’s black population dropped from over 70% to less than half and will probably fall below the white total within the next few years.

Indeed, the strong support of our political elites for Section 8 housing vouchers may be less connected with any alleged social benefits these provide than with their important role in moving large numbers of impoverished urban residents away from the near vicinity of wealthy neighborhoods out into the remote suburbs of the middle class. Several years ago the Atlantic published a major article by Hanna Rosin on the rapid changes in the geographical pattern of crime induced by these demographic shifts, and the piece provoked much discussion even though the author avoided unduly emphasizing the troubling racial aspects. Elite selfishness is hardly surprising and a policy of exporting those populations with a strong link to crime into other localities seems a natural strategy, especially if this can be accomplished under the altruistic guise of socially-uplifting anti-poverty programs.

Finally, it is important to emphasize that this clear political interplay between heavy levels of immigration and black urban displacement is a relatively recent development and certainly was not anticipated by the original promoters of the 1965 Immigration Act. Indeed, although restrictionists routinely denounce that legislation for having flooded America with Hispanic immigrants, the facts are precisely the opposite. While the 1924 Immigration Act had drastically curtailed immigration from Europe (and Asia), the entire Western Hemisphere was totally exempted, and the U.S. retained its previous “open borders” policy for Mexico and the rest of Latin America until strict quotas were finally introduced as part of the 1965 law. Although these 1965 changes were expected to enable renewed European immigration, no one anticipated the vast inflow of Hispanic and Asian immigrants in the decades that followed, nor the resulting impact upon the racial composition of our major cities. But today these continuing urban demographic changes may have now become a significant motive in the minds of the elites advocating increased immigration under the legislation being considered by Congress.

During the 1960s black author James Baldwin coined the widely-quoted phrase “Urban renewal means Negro removal.” I suspect that a somewhat similar semi-intentional national policy is today transforming America’s leading urban centers, although it remains almost entirely unreported by our mainstream media.

On rare occasions, the mask slips and the underlying mental workings of our national elites are momentarily revealed. Consider New York City Mayor Michael Bloomberg, one of our most vocal pro-immigration voices on the national stage and a man whose vast wealth and influence often allow him to be far more candid on controversial topics than most other public figures. In May 2011 Bloomberg was interviewed on Meet the Press, and explained that if he had full authority, he could easily fix the seemingly insoluble problems of a city like Detroit at no cost to the taxpayer. He proposed opening wide the floodgates to unlimited foreign immigration on the condition that all the additional immigrants moved to Detroit and lived there for a decade or so, thereby transforming the city. I suspect this provides an important insight into how he and his friends discuss certain racial issues in private.

The Remarkable New York City Exception

Powerful quantitative evidence for social determinism may be dispiriting, and when the main determinant seems to be race, many Americans will choose to throw up their hands and ignore the statistical facts, simply hoping that these might somehow be proven incorrect. That is certainly their privilege, but for those individuals who prefer to grit their teeth and mine the data for contrary indications, there do exist a few interesting nuggets.

Weighted average correlations are a very useful summary statistic, but they neither tell the whole story nor do they preclude the existence of outlying cases, which might provide some insights on ameliorating the grim situation we have described. And it so happens that among our many dozens of major urban centers one of the most extreme race/crime outliers is neither small nor obscure: New York City. Our largest metropolis often has crime rates that deviate sharply from the usual urban pattern observed almost everywhere else.

Recall our earlier mention of the surprising absence of any correlation between urban population density and crime rates. Those summary statistics were correct, but they also hid some important variations and the null overall result was almost entirely due to the extremely high density and low crime rates in America’s largest city, combined with its huge population-weighting. If we excluded New York City from our calculations, the remainder of America’s major urban centers would demonstrate some moderately strong and fairly stable correlations between density and crime over the last dozen years; for example, density has generally had a positive correlation of around 0.35 with robbery rates.

Similar anomalies appear in the racial crime calculations that have been the central focus of our analysis. Based on its racial composition, we would expect New York City’s homicide rate to be some 70% higher than it actually is, with robbery and violent crime also being far more widespread. Cities like San Jose and San Diego may have homicide and violent crime rates only half that of New York City, but given the stark differences in their underlying demographics, it is New York City’s Finest who deserves praise for their remarkable effectiveness in crime prevention. Evaluating the apparent success or failure of urban law enforcement policies without candidly considering a city’s demographic challenges may lead to incorrect policy judgments.

Little of New York City’s success in crime prevention seems due to the relative size of its police force, which is roughly similar to those of Chicago, Philadelphia, Baltimore, and Boston on a per capita basis, and far below that of Washington, D.C., all cities whose crime rates reflect their demographics. So it appears that New York City’s crime-fighting methods rather than merely the number of its officers has been the crucial factor.

Ideas have consequences, as do attempts to avoid them. For most of the last twenty years, the policing methods implemented under mayors Rudolph Giuliani and Michael Bloomberg won enormous national praise as they so dramatically cut New York crime rates: murders dropped by over three-quarters. But during the last few years, some of these same policies have begun receiving widespread criticism among those pundits who may have forgotten just how bad things were two decades ago.

Our simple statistical analysis obviously does not allow us to disentangle the relative importance of the different factors behind New York City’s success. Since the early 1990s, the city implemented a “community policing” model as well as pioneering the rapid use of local crime data to pinpoint dangerous hotspots and allocate resources more accurately. But other elements of the package have included strict, even harsh policing methods, such as the widespread use of “stop-and-frisk” to reduce gun violence. Denouncing these techniques as unconstitutional or racially discriminatory may be perfectly justified, but those who do so must consider the trade-offs involved, including the very real possibility of a 70% rise in homicides if local policing effectiveness declined to levels found in the rest of the country.

Let us compare the demographic and crime trends of New York City and Washington, twin abodes of our East Coast urban elite. Between 1985 and 2011, Washington’s homicide rate dropped by 26%, robbery fell 27%, and violent crime in general was cut by 30%; but the city’s black population also dropped by 27% during this same period. Meanwhile, New York City’s corresponding declines in crime were far greater, 67%, 78%, and 67% respectively, but were accompanied by only a small 7% decline in black numbers. For all these serious crime rates to decline at nearly ten times the rate of their primary racial determinant is absolutely remarkable, a combination that left the city an exceptional outlier among America’s major urban centers.

Put another way, if America’s other cities with large black populations had somehow managed to achieve the same surprisingly low crime rates as New York City then most of the high racial crime correlations that have been the central findings of this article would disappear. Conversely, if New York City were excluded from our current national statistics, many of the existing racial crime correlations would exceed 0.90. These are objective facts and well-intentioned analysts who sharply criticize New York City policing methods should recognize that they may face some unpalatable choices.

Perhaps further research would establish that the widely-lauded elements of local police practice are the ones primarily responsible for such results, and the more controversial methods may safely be eliminated without negative consequences. But for whatever combination of reasons, the overall results achieved by New York City have been quite remarkable and caution should be exercised before drastic changes are made in such a successful model.

Obviously New York City is not the sole positive outlier on these crime statistics, though it is by far the most significant, both because of its size and the magnitude of its deviation from the predicted results. If we examine the 2011 homicide rates for our set of sixty-six large cities, seventeen of these were at least 30% below the projected trendline, with four cities—Charlotte, Raleigh, St. Paul, and Virginia Beach—achieving even better results than New York City. But many of these successful cities have numerically small black populations, and the total for all seventeen combined is not much larger that of New York City alone. One intriguing fact is that although fewer than one-third of the all our large cities lie in the South, these Southern cities account for over two-thirds of those particularly successful examples, and a roughly similar pattern applies both for other crime rates and for other recent years. The exact mix of cultural, socio-economic, or demographic factors responsible for such notable Southern success in achieving relatively low urban crime rates is unclear, but might warrant further investigation.


Over the last decade or two, liberal intellectuals have regularly denounced their conservative opponents for allowing ideological considerations to trump objective facts, sometimes styling themselves the “Reality-Based Community” as an ironic riposte to the foolish criticism of a top Bush Administration official. Many of these liberal accusations have considerable merit. But individuals who claim to accept reality undercut their credibility if they pick and choose which portions of reality they acknowledge and which portions they carefully ignore. Our academic and media elites should not avoid factual evidence that they dislike.

Consider that over one-quarter of all the urban black males in America have vanished from our society, a loss-ratio approaching that experienced by Europeans during the Black Death of the Middle Ages. Yet these astonishing statistics have largely remained unreported by our major media and hence unrecognized by the general American public. Should the medieval scribes of the Fourteenth Century have ignored the annihilating impact of the bubonic plague all around them and merely confined their writings to more pleasant news?

It is said that very young children sometimes believe they can hide themselves by covering their eyes, and that seems to be the general approach taken by our major media to the unpleasantly grim racial crime statistics analyzed in this article. But the reality continues to exist whether or not we ignore it.

(Republished from by permission of author or representative)
The Hispanic Crime Series
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  1. JI says:

    I found the correlation between whites-voting-Republican and race interesting. It seems to me that those whites who have lived around lots of blacks, who would be likely to know and understand the black culture, are most likely to vote Republican, while those whites who have never lived with blacks vote Democrat. I wonder why that would be.

  2. Dan says:

    The graphs indicate that Hispanics’ crime rates have dipped below that of whites. Is this true. What data source shows this?

    • Replies: @Stephen W
  3. IT might be that the reason for the South’s relatively low urban black crime rate is that Charlotte North Carolina is where NYC’s modern policing began and, according to many, later became a national model (see 60 minutes report):

    “Reuben Greenberg told his cops that their job was not to punish (that was up to the courts), but to make arrests, and in order to do that they had to be on good terms with the citizens. So he put his cops out on the streets, not in cars. They walked, rode bicycles and horses, and were accessible to “normal people,”
    “He also required that every cop earn a bachelor’s degree, whereas when he arrived at the department not all had even graduated from high school. He added a K-9 bomb and drug-sniffing unit, a harbor patrol, and a crime lab to the police department. He had a team of officers remove graffiti the moment it appeared, sending a message that the city belonged to the police, not the vandals.
    “It worked, and Greenberg became a media celebrity. The Los Angeles Times headlined its profile, “A Black, Jewish, Roller-Skating Cop Brings A New Way to Fight Crime to the Old South.”
    “Charleston’s population increased 64% during the time Greenberg was chief, while crime decreased 11 percent.”

    • Replies: @cynthia curran
    , @Wally
  4. Anonymous • Disclaimer says:

    Show me a neighborhood where blacks move in and the crime rate goes down.

  5. So sad that such an article is necessary! We all know, blacks included, that blacks are inclined towards anti-social behavior and crime.

    It may some day be necessary to put all male blacks in concentration camps for reeducation, if that is possible, the reeducation I mean. Look at black crime in South Africa. You cannot tell me that blacks are not criminally inclined. The reason, whether sociological, genetic, or what, I do not know. But when being prudent on a dark street I do not ask the reason I should get out of there. When I got my drivers license in NY City my dad told me never to drive on 125th Street at night. I often disobeyed him, but not about that!!! I knew he knew.

  6. It’s very odd, at first glance, that Hispanic crimes rates have dropped at exactly the same time that white crime rates have soared. It’s doubly odd because the average age of the Hispanic population is so young (and crime is a young persons game) while the average age of the white population is increasing.

    But you don’t have to search very far to find the explanation. Most crime commited by Hispanics is now attributed to “whites”. Have a look at this “white” criminal on the Texas Most Wanted list.

    • Replies: @Gleongelpi
  7. Anonymous • Disclaimer says:

    Perhaps the reason liberals fail to make any progress on gun control policy is that they ignore the best evidence for its arguments: black crime. In ignoring black crime, they exaggerate “white crime” — and whites must find this infuriating and antagonizing. It’s no wonder they refuse to give up their guns.

    If liberals started to argue that gun control is needed to curb the high rate of black crime, then i would bet that they would win many more blue collar whites to their cause. But they wont’ do this because criticizing blacks is counter productive to their more important goal :racial polarization.

    If you asked your average liberal, he would tell you that black crime is a myth. If this is so, then who is committing all the crime in America? “White people!,” he will say. Indeed, liberals must believe that American’s high crime rate is predominately due to whites — because blacks certainly aren’t contributing to it, to think so it a myth!

    • Replies: @Wally
  8. Avalanche says:

    “If liberals started to argue that gun control is needed to curb the high rate of black crime, then I would bet that they would win many more blue collar whites to their cause.”

    That’s a truly stupid suggestion! We need our guns to protect ourselves against black attackers! The “polar bear game” is not “played” against us with guns — but we sure need guns to protect ourselves against black attackers! Black rapists don’t all use guns, but we sure need guns to protect ourselves against black attackers! Even if some magic were possible, and you liberal idiots managed to get guns away from black criminals — we’d STILL need our guns to protect ourselves against blacks attackers! The problem is NOT the guns!!


  9. For the immigrant category there is a strong source of reverse causality. Immigrants choose (to a greater extent than domestics) which city to live in, and they might migrate more heavily toward low-crime cities if all else is equal. So the correlation should not be interpreted as causation, it could be partly or entirely reverse causation.


    “Hispanics” are 34% of the inmate population in the US and only 17% of the total population.

    I read that you consider any one who continues to object to your Hispanic Crime=White Crime thesis as “blockheads”. Care to explain to the audience how the above statistic does not mean Hispanics are over represented in terms of criminality?

    • Replies: @Ron Unz
  11. Ron Unz says:

    Hey Blockhead,

    Did you ever consider actually reading my lengthy original article on the subject, which discusses those issues in detail and to which I’d linked in the column to which you’re referring?

    You might also consider reading the extensive series of my follow-up columns, responding to various objections from critics who actually bothered reading what I’d written:

    Given that the total probably runs to something over 30,000 words, I think I’ll just you the links rather than inserting it all as a single comment.

  12. Anonymous • Disclaimer says:


    Vox Day disputes your conclusion based on his own analysis of firearms homicide rates. I think that an exchange between the two of you on this subject would be fruitful and illuminating. Link to Vox’s article for your review.

    Personally, I find his general conclusion that foreigners commit crimes at rates similar to the rates in their countries of origin plausible and intuitive.

  13. Clyde says:

    When looking at how the Hispanic population correlates to the crime rate, how did you control for the make-up of the non-Hispanic popultion? Or did you?

    I ask, because I would a assume that a city with 50% white and 50% black residents would have a higher crime rate than one with 50% white and 50% Hispanic. 40% white, 20% black, and 40% Hispanic would be higher than 35% white, 15% black, and 50% Hispanic.

    I’m skeptical that simply running a correlation for each group really tells you anything, because make-up of the remaining non-(white, black, or Hispanic) could vary considerably.

    In particular, cities with large white and black or large white and Hispanic populations are more common than large Hispanic and black popultions. Whites would end up “correlating” with the extremely high crime of blacks more often than Hispanics would, inflating the white crime rate correlation considerably.

  14. Clyde says:

    Here’s a quickie simplified example of what I’m thinking:

    First, let’s give each race (Hispanica aren’t a race, blah, blah) a Crime Rate Value:
    White 2
    Hispanic 4
    Black 10
    Meaning the Hispanic crime rate is 2x the white rate, and the black crime rate 5x the white rate.

    Then, for every 10% of the population, a CRV point is “awarded.” We’ll use six cities, named A through F.
    Demographics as follows, with CRV points in parantheses:
    City A: white 30% (6), Hispanic 10% (4), black 60% (60); total CRV points 70
    City B: white 70% (14), Hispanic 0% (0), black 30% (30); total CRV points 44
    City C: white 70% (14), Hispanic 30% (12), black 0% (0); total CRV points 26
    City D: white 30% (6), Hispanic 60% (24), black 10% (10); total CRV points 40
    City E: white 50% (10), Hispanic 50% (20), black 0% (0); total CRV points 30
    City F: white 50% (10), Hispanic 0% (4), black 50% (50); total CRV points 60

    Ordered highest to lowest, with each race’s corresponding percentage of the population:
    City A: white 30%, Hispanic 10%, black 60%
    City F: white 50%, Hispanic 0%, black 50%
    City B: white 70%, Hispanic 0%, black 30%
    City D: white 30%, Hispanic 60%, black 10%
    City E: white 50%, Hispanic 50%, black 0%
    City C: white 70%, Hispanic 30%, black 0%

    With this data, the result would be blacks correlate positvely to crime rate, whites are neutral, and Hispanics correlate nagatively. But in reality, whites correlate to blacks more strongly than Hispanics do, and pick up a correlation to their crime rate.

    • Replies: @Greskault
  15. Clyde says:


    If you are simply looking at each demographic’s correlation to crime rates, your methodology is flawed and produces unreliable results. From the first 20 cities in population size, the pattern I suspected is showing: whites correlate to blacks (and the massive crime rates) much more strongly than Hispanics do. Your white and Hispanic correlations to crime rates are really just correlations to blacks.

    Why not just get “white” crime rate by city, and compare to the percentage of “whites” who are Hispanic? Simpler, straightforward, and much more accurate.

  16. Greskault says:


    Why don’t you calculate the correlation on your example?

    Here is what I have.
    White population percentage correlation with Total CRV: -0.523
    Hispanic: -0.619
    Black: 0.981

    Indeed, in your hypothetically example, the more criminal Hispanics (wrt Whites) will have negative correlation to crime. However, I will caution that even though your example is constructed in such a way to make Ron’s method fail, the criminality of each group can be (roughly) found by performing multiple linear regression. My results:
    Calculated White CRV per 10%: 2.38, error 3.69
    Hispanic: 4.38, error 3.69
    Black: 10.4, error 3.69
    The fitting errors are large because of the nature of your example and the small number data points.

    Note that linear regression of crime rate with racial population makeup is what La Griffe du Lion performed on Hispanic criminality (, and his analysis resulted in Hispanic criminality being very similar to that of Whites. This conclusion mirrors the conclusion of Ron’s earlier, more extensive analysis (

  17. Clyde says:

    That is interesting that you got fairly close to my numbers – lends a little more credibility to Griffe’s work (I still say Unz’s is flawed; correlations vs. causation). However, while Unz and Griffe got numbers in the same ballpark, it’s important to note that Unz has the Hispanic crime rate below that of whites, while Griffe has it higher.

    That leads me to another concern – the high probability of under reporting of crime in both black and Hispanic communities due to mistrust of authorities. I don’t know how much this can be proven, and I realize it opens me to accusations of simply refusing to believe anything other than Hispanics having a higher crime rate, but you’ve got to admit it’s a legitimate concern with taking the official stats at face value.

    But there is one piece of data that gives us a clue, because there’s one crime that can rarely go unreported: homicide. The Hispanic homicide victimization rate is much higher than that for whites. Considering that homicides tend to be intraracial, it’s a fair assumption that Hispanics have a much higher homicide rate than whites. There’s really no way to make the numbers add up other wise. For blacks, we have good numbers on victims and offenders. Hispanics are mostly lumped in with whites, but we can get the victimization numbers. So, either the Hispanic homicide rate is much higher than whites, or whites are killing a lot of Hispanics. Accepting that the Hispanic homicide rate is higher than the white rate, you’d have to believe that the rates for other crimes are lower – rather farfetched.

    And that’s what it comes down to for me – sometimes a little bit of data and common sense are more valuable than statistical analysis intended to infer, estimate, or correlate. We’ll see in September when the 2013 UCR comes out, with Hispanics separated out from whites for the first time. I’ll come back and eat crow if I’m wrong.

  18. greskault says:

    I still say Unz’s is flawed; correlations vs. causation

    There is no “versus” here, and certainly not in the way you mean it. Correlation coefficient is a metric with which to infer one thing from something else.

    Using correlation coefficient can be flawed depending on the data. However, this article was not published in vacuum. Ron acknowledged La Griffe’s analysis in previous short articles. Given the simplicity of this method, it is appropriate to use it in an article meant to reach the masses. (As simple as linear regression is, how many people can follow it?)

    However, while Unz and Griffe got numbers in the same ballpark, it’s important to note that Unz has the Hispanic crime rate below that of whites, while Griffe has it higher.

    Griffe calculated the crime rate; Unz calculated the correlation coefficient. They cannot be compared. Unz also did not plot the errors/uncertainty of each correlation coefficient. I expect that there is significant overlap between Whites and Hispanics.

    Furthermore, Griffe found that Hispanic violent crime rate is <15% greater than White crime rate. This is far from the factor of 2 or 3 (or more) that pundits throw out.

    But there is one piece of data that gives us a clue, because there’s one crime that can rarely go unreported: homicide.

    Unz wrote the exact same thing in The Myth of Hispanic Crime.

    The Hispanic homicide victimization rate is much higher than that for whites.

    Data and methodology please.

    It must be emphasized that the advantage of the multiple linear regression method of calculating criminality is that it requires no assumption whatsoever about the relationship between the victim and criminal.

  19. Clyde says:

    Unz’s goal appears to be for the reader to assume his data represents crime rates. I say this based on the misleading titles of his charts. His charts don’t represent crime rates (as titled), they represent correlations to crime rates. I’m skeptical of this being an honest mistake; and I’ll assume dishonesty on the part of anyone who defends the choice. I have 700 level stat coursework under my belt; although I don’t use it and am admittedly rusty. One thing I know, however, is statistical models can ALWAYS be flawed, can always miss something. Unz’s model clearly has a problem in that more Hispanics = fewer blacks = lower crime; I’m not sure if Griffe’s model could also have this issue (your post above would indicate not) or something else.

    As for Hispanic homicide victimization rates, I don’t have anything bookmarked. But I can recommend a wonderful new search engine called google with which you can find it. City data, various gun crime studies, even Hispanic activist groups all show the same thing.

    Again, we’ll find out next month. If I’m wrong I’ll make it a point to come back and admit it.

  20. Clyde says:

    Come to think of it, there’s a second piece of data that calls Griffe’s crime rate, and Unz’s implied crime rate, work into question: the extremely high (much higher than whites) Hispanic participation in gang activity. Again, I don’t have any info bookmarked, so you’ll have to look it up.

    So, we have to verifiable facts (which you will concede upon a few minutes of research):
    1. The Hispanic homicide victimization rate is much higher than that of whites. From this fact we can conclude that the Hispanic homicide rate is much higher, due to the intraracial nature of homicide as well as the available data on black and white homicides. Otherwise you must conclude that whites are responsible for a large share of Hispanic homicide victims – something far more unlikely than Griffe and Unz’s statistical models simply being wrong.*
    2. Hispanic gang participation and activity is much higher than that for whites.

    Given the above two facts, it is simply ludicrous to conclude that Hispanic crime rates are comparable to those of whites.

    Again, a little bit of data and some common sense often beats a statistical model.

    *Technically, Unz’s model is probably correct; it’s just misleading. While Hispanics may correlate to low crime, it is likely for the reason I’ve stated. After establishing correlation levels, the next question should be – so what; why?

  21. greskault says:

    [I am reposting this since my previous submission was “marked as spam”.]

    One thing I know, however, is statistical models can ALWAYS be flawed, can always miss something.

    Of course, and there are infinite number of ways to analyze the same data. For example, there are data that are deliberately excluded because of some (hopefully not arbitrary) rule that the analyzer uses. At some point, people just have to either accept or deny the results.

    I’m not sure if Griffe’s model could also have this issue (your post above would indicate not) or something else.

    I make no such indication, and there are problems with this particular model of multiple linear regression as well. For example, it assumes that the same ethnic group is as criminal in one region of the country as another. This is likely false as Unz have shown that the incarceration rates of Whites vary around the country. However, it is one useable method that has its place in a larger family of analyses.

    As for Hispanic homicide victimization rates, I don’t have anything bookmarked. But I can recommend a wonderful new search engine called google with which you can find it. City data, various gun crime studies, even Hispanic activist groups all show the same thing.

    In other words, you’re too lazy to support your claim.

    I, on the other hand, have just recently performed criminality analysis using the similar methods as Unz and La Griffe, spurred on by this discussion. I used the violent crime and homicide report from FBI for 2012 ( and the demographic percentages from US Census for 2010 ( I restrict to cities with population >250k and >500k.

    As an example on how the available data can be less than ideal, I disclose that I had to remove the cities Mobile (AL) and Las Vegas (NV) because of the large mismatches in reported population between FBI and Census. My analysis will restrict solely to cities where these Whites, Blacks, Hispanics, and Asians make up >95%. Thus, I also removed the cities of Anchorage (AK), Oklahoma City (OK) and Tulsa (OK). I also don’t include Honolulu because it’s not available in FBI data.

    I analyze the crime rates for violent crimes and homicide (a subset of violent crimes). For some reason, the FBI data for Chicago (IL) does not contain rape (also subset of violent crimes), so the violent crimes rate analyses was done without Chicago. For the homicide rates analyses, I performed once with Chicago included and another without, but the results are not that different, so I will just present the homicide results with Chicago included.

    Now for the results. First, we look at crime rates for each group using multiple linear regression.

    Cities >250k, Violent Crime Rates Per 1000
    White: 0.708, 1.60 error
    Black: 20.0, 1.33 error
    Hispanic: 5.30, 1.02 error
    Asian: -2.47, 3.46 error

    Cities >500k, Violent Crime Rates Per 1000
    White: 0.241, 2.28 error
    Black: 19.8, 1.67 error
    Hispanic: 4.89, 1.27 error
    Asian: -1.66, 4.43 error

    Cities >250k, Homicide Rates Per 100,000
    White: -11.6, 4.89 error
    Black: 38.6, 3.90 error
    Hispanic: 11.5, 3.11 error
    Asian: -24.0, 10.21 error

    Cities >500k, Homicide Rates Per 100,000
    White: -15.7, 8.13 error
    Black: 37.7, 5.69 error
    Hispanic: 11.7, 4.52 error
    Asian: -17.5, 15.26 error

    Discussion: The extracted per capita crime rates for Blacks and Hispanics in cities larger than 500k are similar to La Griffe’s for the year 2009 and 2010. My rates for Asians are essentially noise, just like La Griffe’s. However, my calculated rates for Whites are also noise, which is very different than La Griffe’s. This can be a point of contention on the validity of this analysis, the analyses of La Griffe, or just this type of analysis in general. It would be best if various other people perform the same methodology on either the same years or different years, perhaps with different software, in order to nail down more accurate results.

    The same discussion applies to homicide rates.

    Now I analyze the same data by calculating their correlation.

    Cities >250k, Correlation Coefficient Between Race/Ethnicity Percentage and Violent Crimes
    White: -0.2737, 0.02395 significance
    Black: 0.2442, 0.04474 sig.
    Hispanic: 0.0274, 0.8246 sig.
    Asian: 0.0346, 0.7795 sig.

    Cities >500k, Correlation Coefficient Between Race/Ethnicity Percentage and Violent Crimes
    White: -0.2984, 0.10928 sig.
    Black: 0.2533, 0.17676 sig.
    Hispanic: -0.0155, 0.93531 sig.
    Asian: 0.0321, 0.86616 sig.

    Cities >250k, Correlation Coefficient Between Race/Ethnicity Percentage and Homicide
    White: -0.4165, 4.11E-04 sig.
    Black: 0.5201, 5.47E-06 sig.
    Hispanic: -0.0623, 0.614 sig.
    Asian: -0.0713, 0.563 sig.

    Cities >500k, Correlation Coefficient Between Race/Ethnicity Percentage and Homicide
    White: -0.5032, 4.59E-03 sig.
    Black: 0.5426, 1.95E-03 sig.
    Hispanic: -0.1150, 0.545 sig.
    Asian: -0.0789, 0.679 sig.
    Discussion: Whites are negatively correlated, and Blacks are positively correlated, just like Unz’s analysis. It’s safe to assume that the values for Asian are just noise. However, the Hispanic value is also noisy. Overall, it appears that the Correlation Coefficient method is not good for estimating Hispanic criminality, at least for this set of data.
    Overall discussion: Presumably high quality data from FBI, US Census, and other places like Prison statistics exists for reported crimes and demographics. Different methods can and will yield different results because the methods are all imperfect. Furthermore, all Hispanics are lumped together as one group even though the racial makeup (and hence criminality) of various Hispanics groups can vary a lot. In addition, because of geographical variance in group behavior, there’s a chance that even contradictory conclusions from different analyses agree with the local realities of their authors. As an example, heavily Hispanic cities such as Santa Ana (78% Hispanic) and El Paso (81%) have low violent crime and homicide rates (direct division with total population). However, the realities of two cities hardly set the rule.

  22. Wade says:


    Another confounding factor at which you hinted is the different racial make-up of various “Hispanic” groups. I recall reading that Puerto Ricans and Dominicans have higher crime rates than other Hispanics, and unsurprisingly both Puerto Ricans and Dominicans have significantly higher percentages of sub-Saharan African ancestry.

    I think I also read that South American immigrants in the U.S. (Colombians, Peruvians, Chileans, Venezuelans, etc.) have the lowest crime rates among Hispanics, but these immigrants are a more selected bunch and tend to arrive with better educational credentials.

  23. Anon • Disclaimer says:

    It would be interesting to see if there are threshold effects. Look as rising black (or any) population change in a given local.
    – Does the crime rate go non-linear at a certain point?
    – Does the rate of change for all demographic groups change abruptly, i.e. White flight, at a certain point?

  24. Anonymous • Disclaimer says:

    Minorities such as the Hispanic and Black population in the US due to discrimination occupy more of the lower level positions in the in the work field than whites. These positions usually require a lot of effort for little return. I do not find it surprising that the similar proportions would be represented in the area of crime. While the white population has a very high representation in the lucrative white collar crime field where with little effort and with almost no fear of prosecution (to big to fail, or just pay a couple of billions in fines) they steal billions and trillions of dollars with a click on the computer button. Due to lack of opportunity in the white collar crime field minorities are more prominent in the lower level crimes, that require more effort, involves personal danger and has a very low return. For the argument that here we are only considering violent crime, please note that the difference between a minority robber who breaks into your house and steals some of your belongings, versus the white banker who through fraudulent practices steals your house, and trows you and your family on the street is that if caught the robber goes to jail and becomes a statistic in your analysis, while the white banker if caught just pays a fine. What about homicide? Can a minority criminal plead that the murder was just a collateral damage while he was trying to bring democracy to the victim? Under the same pretexts the white western ruling powers have looted countries and killed untold millions, again with no danger to themselves since they make the minorities and the poor whites do the fighting for them. The more people are killed the more medals they give to the ones doing the fighting while they count their profits. Your analysis reflects the complaint of the upper white class that the petty crimes committed by minorities interferes with their peaceful enjoyment of the fruits of their large scale crimes.

    • Replies: @Anonymous
  25. There’s a funny paradox here. You said that you originally took out the results on black crime, because it would distract attention from the sensational hispanic crime observation. But now that they’re put together, for anybody who’s looked at the subject halfway seriously, it’s the hispanic crime result that distracts sensation from the well-known black crime observation! The discussion of hispanic to black replacement is very interesting, though.

  26. “Interestingly enough, for most of the last decade the presence of Hispanics and immigrants has become noticeably less associated with crime than the presence of whites, although that latter category obviously exhibits large regional heterogeneity.” What’s amazing is that Hispanics have such high “association” with crime when they have such smaller population than whites. Here in L.A. that “noticeably smaller” association compared to whites is switched and multiplied a few times. I guess we were one of the cities left out of your Hispanic-boosting “statistics”.

  27. Anonymous • Disclaimer says:

    Excusing violent black crime with white financial crime would be like using Obama’s crimes to excuse white financial crime (Obama is black).

  28. I’m surprised that Unz would write such a detailed analysis while being so uninformed about what has already been done in the field. There is already plenty of research that has shown the racial disparities in various social problems disappear when poverty and economic class are controlled for.

  29. Obviously New York City is not the sole positive outlier on these crime statistics, though it is by far the most significant, both because of its size and the magnitude of its deviation from the predicted results. If we examine the 2011 homicide rates for our set of sixty-six large cities, seventeen of these were at least 30% below the projected trendline, with four cities—Charlotte, Raleigh, St. Paul, and Virginia Beach—achieving even better results than New York City. But many of these successful cities have numerically small black populations, and the total for all seventeen combined is not much larger that of New York City alone. One intriguing fact is that although fewer than one-third of the all our large cities lie in the South, these Southern cities account for over two-thirds of those particularly successful examples, and a roughly similar pattern applies both for other crime rates and for other recent years. The exact mix of cultural, socio-economic, or demographic factors responsible for such notable Southern success in achieving relatively low urban crime rates is unclear, but might warrant further investigation.

    Might white ethnic self-confidence be the determining factor here? I would argue that the whites with the most ethnic self-confidence are

    1. Southerners
    2. New York Jews/Italians/Irish

    It’s reasonable to surmise that, at the margins, black criminals factor in the intensity of white backlash when planning a criminal attack. Maybe they think a bit harder about it in the South than the Midwest or West Coast?

    • Replies: @Anonymous
    , @Nico
  30. Stephen W says:

    The way the Hispanic rate dips while the white rate rises at the same time suggests more Hispanic crime is getting lumped in with the white crime. I think his methods are underestimating the Hispanic population because they are increasingly undocumented as they are there illegally.

    • Replies: @Anonymous
  31. @Rudy Weitz

    The southern cities have higher crime than Latino cities like El Paso and Santa Ana and Anaheim because they have more blacks than Latinos. Also, New Mexico has a lower crime rate than North Carolina and all of the south. yet, we have are pro-south folks don’t mention that crime is always high in black towns and low in white towns and Latin and Asian Towns. None of North Carolina’s cities make the safest city list but Irvine, Mission Viejo and Lake Forest in Orange County do because blacks are only 1 percent. Stop the pro south talk and mention that many all white or almost all white states have lower crime and they are not all liberal. Utah, Id, Wymong, Nebreask, North Dakota and South Daktoa.

  32. Just looked it up Charlotte has a very high crime rate. Violent Crime at 378 while US average is only 266 and Anaheim at 206. Charlotte is over 30 percent black while Anaheim is only 2 percent black. Charlotte is about 13 percent Latino while Anaheim is about 54 percent Latino. Charlotte is about 2 to 3 percent Asian while Anaheim is about 15 percent. This proves that a lot of southern cities with blacks have high crime rates versus non-southern cities with low black populations. I just looked up murders in Charlotte and got the crime stats same goes for Anaheim. This is 2012 which is pretty current. in fact I never understood why its only whites moved to the South here. There are cheaper places like Arizona which has Latinos but less blacks than Texas. In fact with the oil boom both Houston and Dallas housing is very closed to rents and housing in Phoneix and Tucson. Also, the colder states are not all liberal there are Id, Montana, Wyoming, North and South Dakota, Kansas which does have some blacks, Nebraska or Utah. Maybe its the cold or Mormonism that bothers you.

  33. “I moved back to Palo Alto from New York City in 1992, and that year East Palo Alto recorded America’s highest per capita murder rate”

    Iin 1989 I visited a friend in the area who worked in a public hospital’s emergency room. She told me that when citizens of East Palo Alto reported gunfire, the police wouldn’t go in until the firing had stopped. She also had gruesome stories of the torture wounds that some people arrived with – inflicted by gangs.

  34. @Benjamin David Steele

    “There is already plenty of research that has shown the racial disparities in various social problems disappear when poverty and economic class are controlled for.”

    Perhaps you’d care to link to those you consider most authoritative ?

    • Replies: @Benjamin David Steele
  35. Anonymous • Disclaimer says:

    Ron Unz, another anti-White racist jew lamenting the loss of African-American males, and the fact that fewer evil White Christians won’t be violently victimized by the Jews’ pet Africans.

    To any Whites who read this blog: You need to look up jewish Ron Unz’ past anti-White track record. Despite his “conservative” veneer, he is a typical inbred Talmud jewtard who is deeply opposed to Whites and White societies.

  36. @Ron Unz

    Why bother reading your articles, when your track record of anti-White hatred and attempts to undermine your White Christian host societies speaks for itself?

  37. Anonymous • Disclaimer says:

    Translation: “I’m a Talmudid fake khazarian “jew” named Ron Unz, and I’m deeply committed to destroying the societies of my White Christian hosts, as my religion commands me to do. Toward that end, I took a wild guess at how many hispanics vs Whites are in the FBI statistics, and falsely attributed thousands of hispanic crimes to Whites. I also conveniently ignored the fact that Central and South American nations have the highest violent crime rates on the planet. Hopefully my fake disinfo will be taken up by other jewish media outlets, and used as a rationale to flood more White communities with violent hispanics gangs, and oh, btw, my IQ is 210, lol. You can tell by all the fancy graphs and charts I used to fudge my data”

  38. Anonymous • Disclaimer says:
    @Honorary Thief

    Khazarian fake “jews” are not White, but thanks for trying.

  39. Anonymous • Disclaimer says:
    @Benjamin David Steele

    [“Sockpuppetry”—adopting a series of different handles to mask one’s identity—is a very serious offense on this website and will result in summary trashing of all future comments if it continues. Also, it’s improper to publish numerous, successive comments on the same subject; instead, they should be combined into one or more more comprehensive comments]

    Yeah, “studies” done by Talmudic Khazarian fake “jews” like yourself who are intent on flooding White societies with their enemies. Similar to the “studies” that prove “climate change”, lol.

  40. Anonymous • Disclaimer says:

    There are no indicators of crime better than race compostion

  41. conatus says:

    Yeah good column, a lot of unfashionable trend articulation. Regarding the falling crime rate in DC, I would say Steve Sailer’s idea of the end of the crack wars would contribute some to the failing crime rate. I lived in N.E.D.C. for over twenty years and moved in ’93. The murder rate was in the 400s in the late eighties and early nineties which was why we fled. Then it went way down because all the crack dealing bad asses were dead or in wheel chairs in public housing.
    The turf war was over. The murder rate went down to 100.
    Number wise I don’t think it was about Hispanics displacing Blacks as much as it was about Blacks moving from a too expensive city. From 19990 to 2010 the population of DC was about 600,000. In 1990 Hispanics were 5% and then went to 9% in 2010. During the same time period the black population of DC went from 65% to 50%. I think the brothas all moved to close in PG county because developers were coming in and buying entire blocks and putting up apartment buildings for Ivy Leaguers to live in.
    Particularly for DC, 9/11 was a boon for the real estate salesman because DC became extremely cop heavy after the 9/11 scare. In the other wards, housing prices went up in a more highly patrolled city, the Ivy Leagues moved in. DC became Panem,( I think it refers to ‘bread and circuses’ in Latin), the capitol city in the movie the Hunger Games, full of nice well fed YTs with Starbucks coffee cups glued to their left hand. Yeah now it is 50% White and from my point of view from 1971…unrecognizable.

  42. Jeff77450 says:

    Oh I think you know.

  43. Ron – I think these statistics tell something quite different from your thesis, namely that Hispanic perpetrators were identified as whites beginning in the Clinton era 90’s (coincident with NAFTA and mass immigration). I can’t otherwise imagine a genetic or selection basis for the shift from 1993 to the present. White crime rate up while Hispanic trends downward at nearly equivalent mirror images of the other (along the x axis).

    It looks like a gradual recategorization as police forces came to use “white hispanic” or simply “white” for perpetrators (but not victims) of violent crime. See the Texas most wanted list as a simple example. Until this confounding issue is resolved you can’t make solid claims about Hispanic vs white crime rates. Or look to the pre-1993 data when people were classified logically (minus the “white hispanic” conflation).

    • Replies: @Ron Unz
  44. Ron Unz says:

    No, your suggestion is entirely incorrect.

    Nowhere in my analysis do I bother using the police categorization of criminal perpetrators, for exactly the reason you cite, and I actually emphasize that point. Instead, all the ethnic data is *solely* based upon the census reporting for the individual cities in question, which has absolutely nothing to do with whether the police classify particular criminals as Hispanic or “white.”

    I’m sorry to be so terse, but you clearly haven’t bothered carefully reading my article. You also might want to consider reading my closely related Hispanic Crime article, which makes this point in even greater detail.

    • Replies: @Antonymous
  45. @Ron Unz

    Admittedly you’re correct about my skim reading, but two issues remain:

    (1) I don’t see the mirror image issue addressed in your papers. What would you say accounts for the mirror image of white crime increase and hispanic crime decrease? It appears to be an artifact of some sort. (2) How do you account for illegal residents who may not be reflected in the census numbers? If the estimates of 11-35 million are to be believed, this could dramatically affect your results.

    If the illegal fraction committed crimes that were unaccounted for by census data, wouldn’t the (white) majority population take the fall for it so to speak? Might this explain the apparent increase in white crime at the same time illegal immigration has expanded?

    • Replies: @Ron Unz
  46. Ron Unz says:

    No, that’s not correct either. If the true number of Hispanics were actually much larger than the government claims (i.e. many more illegals), then the true Hispanic crime *rate* would actually be much *lower*, since crime rate = number of crimes / population.

    However, if you read the article carefully, you’ll see that I never claim that the Hispanic crime rate has been going down over time or that the white crime rate has been going up. The (lowish) crime correlations displayed in the charts are *not* “crime rates.”

    Why don’t you go through and read the article more carefully and also do the same with my earlier Hispanic Crime article, then come back to me with further questions if you’d like:

  47. Anonymous • Disclaimer says:

    Institutional Failure or Societal Success?

    Ferguson Missouri is now famous. Since the shooting of Michael Brown in 2014 and the ensuing riots last year and now this summer it is a metaphor for what is wrong with race relations, policing, and racial strife in America. Clearly something has gone wrong. So the typical response of the pundits and media, along with elected officials is that the system has failed us. We need to tweak the system. What that means of course is more government resources (money) being thrown at the problem. There is no chance for these same failed policies of government intervention over the last 30 years to suceed. Ferguson will continue to fail.

    Consider the statistics of Ferguson a city of 21,000 with a majority black population near a big city – St. Louis. It is a violent place. 1 of every 1,000 residents is murdered each year.

    The reasons why Ferguson is in such a mess are not simple, and the solutions are clearly difficult. And, yes there are bad cops in Ferguson who don’t live there, are primarily white and have done much to alienate the black community. But crime like a flower grows from its roots. The bad apples on the streets of Ferguson come from bad beginnings, and there are no institutions capable of changing that fact.

    Meanwhile in Aurora Illinois a suburb of Chicago with 200,000 residents, of whom 11% are African American, they clearly do not have a problem with their police force. Aurora has a larger population of African Americans than Ferguson. In Aurora in the 1980’s there were up to 30 murders a year, while in 2012 there were zero. Imagine that, 22,000 blacks in a large urban city without one black on black murder. Neither did the police gun down anyone for no reason. Years ago Aurora received help from the FBI to eliminate gangs, but surely something else is at play. Aurora is not a safe city by any means. It is still ranked as the 22nd most dangerous city in the state. But cops killing blacks is a non issue.

    Just what the hell is going on? Can’t the government do something? Where are the Black Lives Matter protesters to congratulate the white cops! Because clearly Black lives do matter in Aurora. The fact is this is an example of societal success, where families and communities make their city function. It clearly proves that any town or city in America can become almost murder free, regardless of race.

    Yet are we to believe that there are no racists among the Aurora police force? Or that racism is not present in the town? Of course not. Aurora is in a state with a murder capital only miles away in Chicago. It has to deal with the same laws, both state and federal, the same types of administrative and funding issues, and all the other trappings of government. Sure, they may have a better and more responsive police force and maybe a bit more funding, but this clearly shows that government mandates and laws from Washington D.C. have no long term impact in providing any solutions or guidelines that affect lives on the street. Aurora is doing just fine without Obama or Al Sharpton for that matter.

    Here is the reality. Cops shoot and kill blacks where blacks shoot and kill blacks.

  48. @Anonymous Nephew

    “Perhaps you’d care to link to those you consider most authoritative ?”

    You could read one of hundreds of scholarly books on the topic. But I don’t spoonfeed info to people. I’ve found that people who want to know something tend to already know it or are able to easily find the necessary info. As for those that don’t want to know, all the information in the world won’t make a bit of difference.

    • Replies: @Colin Wright
  49. I would point out that the issue is a lot more complex than those on the political right like to admit, assuming they even understand.

    Many black populations in the early 1900s and late 1800s had extremely low rates of violent crime. They also had high rates of marriage, religiosity, etc. At the same time, many white populations had extremely high rates of violent crime.

    The black population didn’t fundamentally change. These are the same basic people with the same basic genetics and same basic culture. The only thing that changed over this past century were environmental factors, from mass urbanization to mass unemployment, from economic segregation in ghettoes to high rates of heavy metal toxity in black communities.

    Before anyone jumps to ideological conclusions, all of the data needs to be considered and explained. Ignoring inconvenient data isn’t helpful.

    • Replies: @Negrolphin Pool
  50. It would be better to do regressions here than to use correlation coefficients, as I’ll explain. What the correlation coefficient measures is the correlation, which is the extent to which crime goes up when hispanic percentage goes up. High correlation means they move together. But, crucially, it doesn’t mean that changes in the hispanic population explain most crime changes.

    Let me use an example. Suppose that when crime increases in a city, the Armenian population for some reason also increases, though no city has more than 2% Armenian population. Crime would then be perfectly correlated with Armenian population, a correlation coefficient of 1. Yet Armenians can only be a tiny part of crime.

    On the other hand, suppose there are lots of things that cause crime to increase. Suppose in truth that when the black population rises 10%, crime rises by 20%, on average. The correlation coefficient could be tiny, because whereas black population has a big effect on crime, so many other things also affect crime that black population is an unreliable predictor for any one city.

    • Replies: @Ron Unz
  51. “Thus, replacing a city’s blacks with immigrants would tend to lower local crime rates by as much as 90%”
    So, where would these troublesome negros go ? To ruin a different town ?
    Would the crime rate be reduced, or just diluted ?

  52. We already have our own immigrant problem. It is the African-American.
    Brought here hundreds of years ago, and never assimilated.

  53. Can welfare blacks,who are born because their mothers are being paid to A)Watch Maury B)Drink dem fawties and C)Get knocked up at da club,be considered illegal.immigrants as they cross they mom’s vagina?

  54. Nico says:
    @Honorary Thief

    New York Jews/Italians/Irish

    Ehh, I would have named the Poles in place of the Irish. Don’t be fooled the number of yuppie SWPL Mc and O’ helicopter parents naming their children “Cormac,” “Aodh,” “Padraig,” “Birgit,” “Viona,” etc. in a desperate attempt to get back to their real or imagined urban exotic roots from the boring Anglo-assimilated white bread ‘burbs stifling their Celtic rage for the last two or three generations. About the best we can say is that Hipster Plastic Paddies at least make a go at being more AUTHENTIC Plastic Paddies.

  55. Well golly gee…violent crime rates are a lot higher in the black ghetto than in the white ‘burbs…go figure…

    I’m sure there’s a lot more black folks taking a dump on the street too…

    Maybe Mr. Unz can do a statistical analysis on that burning issue too…

    Hitler rounded up the Polish Jews and kept them in ghettos…they were probably taking more dumps on the street than the pleasant White Schutzstaffel guys in the neat uniforms…

    Okay enough irony for a bit…I’m a white guy and I’ve hung out in the most crime-ridden ‘hoods just out of curiosity (at night in case you’re wondering)…New Orleans…Detroit…South Side Chicago…Bronx…

    …lots of gangstas around sure…never bothered whitey…never felt threatened…hung out in people’s cribs in the projects…they actually invited me in…imagine that…

    Can you say that Mr. Unz?

    Maybe if you want to be a social scientist you might consider something called field work.

    Also challenge to all the Big Macho White Guys here…tell me about your travels in the ‘hood…

  56. LL says:


    The real crime here is that you put 4 extremely important and objective articles into a single page. They need to be spread out more!

  57. What an amazing finding! The wealthy Americans promote Latino immigration in order to displace Blacks! And a quarter of Black men are gone! Incredible! A real discovery! Congratulations!

  58. @Benjamin David Steele

    Before anyone jumps to ideological conclusions, all of the data needs to be considered and explained..

    I’m not 100% sure of the precise molecular composition of the wall in my room. Should I go ahead and just assume it’s not there until all the data is accounted for?

    • Replies: @Benjamin David Steele
  59. @Negrolphin Pool

    I place more value on knowledge than ignorance. I’m crazy like that.

  60. utu says:

    “population-weighted cross-correlations”

    Not sure if I understand? Cross correlation of two sequences is a sequence not a number. What actually has been done?

  61. Wally says:
    @Rudy Weitz

    Ole Rube’s a Jew, hence the “media celebrity”.

    I smell another false news story.

    about wikipedia:

    ‘Zionist Wikipedia Editing Course’

    “Some stories are true that never happened.”
    – Elie Wiesel

    • Replies: @Anon
  62. Wally says:

    Right. And I guess that’s why white liberals live as far away from blacks as possible.

  63. Anon • Disclaimer says:

    Jews never do good things?

  64. Anonymous [AKA "besserwisser"] says:

    Have you wondered why the homicide rate of all black Ghana with a population of 25 million is 1,7 and Cuba with a 50 per cent black population has a rate of 4,7 against a rate of 4,9 for the US where only 12 per cent of the population is black?
    It seems to me, the issue most be more complex than just race.

    • Replies: @Nicholas Stix
  65. @Anonymous

    “It seems to me, the issue most be more complex than just race.”

    More complex than just race in the biological sense, but there is also the ideological sense, as part of culture/nurture. Most blacks in America, though not limited to America, promote a genocidal racist ideology (which they project onto whites), and which, I contend, plays a huge role in black crime.

  66. JimB says:

    Unz omits the predator-prey relationship between non-white criminals and whites. Wherever whites cluster you will find concentrations of non-white criminals. It’s basically Sutton’s Law: when Willie Sutton was asked why he robbed banks, he said because that’s where the money is.

    • Replies: @Anonymous
  67. Anonymous • Disclaimer says:
    @Stephen W

    Exactly. The way the two lines in every graph (inversely) mirror each-other even in smaller details strongly suggests that many “white” criminals are simply repainted Hispanics.


    “Falling crime rates have been one of the great American success stories of the past 15 years. New York and Los Angeles, once the twin capitals of violent crime, have calmed down significantly, as have most other big cities”

    “Lately, though, a new and unexpected pattern has emerged, taking criminologists by surprise. While crime rates in large cities stayed flat, homicide rates in many midsize cities (with populations of between 500,000 and 1 million) began increasing, sometimes by as much as 20percent a year”

    “It used to be the criminal element was more confined,” said Larry Godwin, the police chief. “Now it’s all spread out”

    “Betts had been evaluating the impact of one of the city government’s most ambitious initiatives: the demolition of the city’s public-housing projects, as part of a nationwide experiment to free the poor from the destructive effects of concentrated poverty. Memphis demolished its first project in 1997. The city gave former residents federal “Section8” rent-subsidy vouchers and encouraged them to move out to new neighborhoods”

    So little time, so many mysteries to solve.

  69. To be fair, Middle Eastern and North African (MENA) derived people should not be counted as being a white-European ethnic group, for obvious reasons.

    Crime statistics and other diversity-styled statistics should recognize that MENA-derived people are not white-European.

    MENA people should have their own government-recognized ethnic category.

    This idea is especially important with the large inflow of Arab Muslims entering the US.

  70. Z says:

    So, does this include illegal immigrant crime also.? Also, at this point just speculation as it is hard to find numbers on this for obvious reasons, but, i would think that crime could more underreported in certain communities that fear deportation.
    Illegal Immigrants.>

  71. Anonymous • Disclaimer says:

    There must be some quslifications to your generalisation. To start with just because of transport and access costs. But also based on simple fact. E.g. Palo Alto hardly attracts big clusters of black predators. Why not check your bright ideas before publishing?

  72. There is one factor that makes it very difficult to determine the actual criminality of Hispanics in particular when it comes to those who are hear illegally. Who came here for a job versus who came here as a member of a cartel. Authorities in many instances have a hard time distinguish between the two. Certainly, gang membership is generally very easy to assess but the better organized cartels prefer not to bring attention to themselves through display of tattoo s etc. If one could distinguish between the different sets of reasons why many Hispanic s are here, a considerable crime differential would be found.

  73. @Greenstalk

    Most Hispanics are white as much as you are. Hispanics can be white, black, Indian, Asian, mulatto, mestizo or multi–racial. In fact, many people with Hispanic last name only speak English.

  74. conatus says:

    This is a good article with some nice charts that make things clearer for people like me.
    Mr. Unz mentions the National Crime Victimization Survey and I have never understood why it is not regarded as more dispositive than it is.
    Performed by the Census of about 50 to 75K households, twice a year!
    That is a lot of households. And twice a year!
    What do you want in terms of randomly chosen objectivity?

    At any rate it has been going on for a while(1972) and the results are roughly the same, over and over.

    James Q. Wilson was a professor at Harvard for 25 years, and in the chapter on crime in his 2002 book “Beyond the Color Line” he makes the point that “Black men commit murders at a rate about eight times greater than that for white men.” This disparity is not new: it has existed for well over a century. When historian Roger Lane studied murder rates in Philadelphia he found that since 1839 the black rate has been much higher than the white rate.

    Are these statistical disparities the result of police bias? Do the police target more blacks and therefore arrest more blacks? Professor Wilson would say, no, they are not. Why? Because the more recent numbers are confirmed by the reports of victims, not police. Using the results of the National Crime Victimization Survey, which measures the response merely of victims of crime, Wilson says (second paragraph of his paper), “Regardless of whether the victim is black or white, there are no significant differences between victim reports and police arrests.”

    On a more anecdotal level, I lived in Northeast DC for over 20 years, during the crack wars when DC had a murder rate in 400s( a city of 600K, usually now in the 100s). What the academic types do not realize concerns status on the block.The guy who lived next to me did six years at Lorton(the DC prison at the time) and when he came back he was King of the block. ‘Pee-Wee’ had more status than any Phd from Harvard.

    As Heather MacDonald said in an interview,”I walked around the housing project talking to people. They were very hostile. Obviously some white girl coming up to talk to them, I don’t expect them to greet me with open arms, or even welcoming. They seemed untouched by civilization. It was disturbing.”

    “They seemed untouched by civilization” is the way it was. I repeat ‘untouched by civilization’ and that is what the rest of America cannot grasp

  75. My complaint is that the freeways in southern California are parking lots due to immigration, legal and illegal. We are prisoners in our own neighborhoods. Another complaint is the welfare that is paid to legal and illegal immigrants, not to mention that they vote Democrat which results in a failed state. Now I have to leave the state due to its failure.
    Governor Brown was in Mexico and invited them to come to California legal and illegal. California is very welcoming of illegals as you know how the California State and local governments give sanctuary. Governor Brown said they we do not have to obey federal law. The problems of California are well documented. The Democratic Party, like with the Blacks, believes in keeping the immigrants on the plantation of government benefits. California has the highest tax rates in the nation.

  76. @Benjamin David Steele

    ‘Perhaps you’d care to link to those you consider most authoritative ?”

    You could read one of hundreds of scholarly books on the topic. But I don’t spoonfeed info to people. I’ve found that people who want to know something tend to already know it or are able to easily find the necessary info. As for those that don’t want to know, all the information in the world won’t make a bit of difference.’

    In other words you would not care to link to your sources.

    I’m reasonably confident you don’t have any, and you don’t have any because what you assert isn’t true.

    • Replies: @Benjamin David Steele
  77. @Colin Wright

    Nope. I say what I mean. And I mean what I say. Those worthy of intelligent, rational debate are already informed or else capable of informing themselves. Otherwise, I’m just not interested. It’s my policy. Take it or leave it.

  78. Sbaker says:

    Why? Obviously you have not lived close enough to African communities.

  79. @JI

    Professor Thomas Sowell and Tommy Sotomayor are to Black Americans that have videos on You Tube. A few hours watching them will give you the raw truth of Black lives in America.

    [email protected]
    Last Modified: May 6, 2012


    Imagine Soldier Field beyond capacity, brimming with 63,879 young African-American men, ages 18 to 24 — more than U.S. losses in the entire Vietnam conflict. Imagine the University of Michigan’s football stadium — the largest in the U.S. — filled to its limit of 109,901 with black men, age 25 and older. Now add 28,223 more — together totaling more than U.S. deaths in World War I.
    Picture two UIC Pavilions packed with 12,658 Trayvon Martins — black boys, ages 14 to 17 — nearly twice the number of U.S. lives lost in Iraq and Afghanistan. Now picture all of them dead. The national tally of black males 14 and older murdered in America from 1976 through 2005, according to U.S. Bureau of Justice statistics: 214,661. The numbers tell only part of the story of this largely urban war, where the victims bear an uncanny resemblance to their killers. A war of brother against brother, filled with wanton and automatic gunfire, even in the light of day, on neighborhood streets, where little boys make mud pies, schoolgirls jump rope, where the innocent are caught in the crossfire, where the spirit of murder blows like the wind. It is, so far, a ceaseless war in which guns are often the weapon of choice, and the finger on the trigger of the gun pointed at a black male is most often another black male’s.

    The numbers alone are enough to make me cry — to wonder why — we as African Americans will march en masse over one slain by someone who is not black, and yet sit silent over the hundreds of thousands of us obliterated from this mortal world by someone black like us, like me. It is a numbing truth borne out by hard facts: From 1980 through 2008, 93 percent of black victims were killed by blacks. Translation: For every Trayvon Martin killed by someone not black, nine other blacks were murdered by someone black.

    In 2005, — blacks — accounted for 13 percent of the U.S. population but 49 percent of all homicides. The numbers are staggering, the loss incomprehensible. Add to the tally of black males 14 and older slain across the country from 1976 to 2005, another 29,335 (slain from 2006 to 2010), and their national body count rises to 243,996, representing 82 percent of all black homicides for that 35-year period. What also becomes clear is this: We too often have raised killers. And this war is claiming our sons. But that’s still not the end of the story. Add to that number 51,892 black females ages 14 and older, plus five whose gender was not identifiable, and the total, not counting children, is 295,893 — more than the combined U.S. losses of World War I, the Vietnam, Korean and Mexican-American wars, the War of 1812 and the American Revolutionary War.

    Is the blood of these sons and daughters somehow less American? Two hundred ninety-five thousand eight hundred ninety-three . . . Imagine the United Center, Wrigley Field, U.S. Cellular Field and Soldier Field nearly all filled simultaneously with black boys, girls, men and women. Now imagine that twice over. Now imagine them all dead. As far as I can see, that’s at least 295,893 reasons to cry. And it is cause enough for reticent churches, for communities, for lackadaisical leaders, for all people — no matter our race, color or creed — to find the collective will and the moral resolve to stamp out this human rights atrocity occurring right under our noses. Just imagine the human carnage and the toll to us all if we don’t.
    I can’t. I won’t.

  80. Ron Unz says:
    @Eric Rasmusen

    It would be better to do regressions here than to use correlation coefficients, as I’ll explain. What the correlation coefficient measures is the correlation, which is the extent to which crime goes up when hispanic percentage goes up. High correlation means they move together. But, crucially, it doesn’t mean that changes in the hispanic population explain most crime changes.

    Well, all the insults and accusations of dishonesty I was receiving for having merely provided weighted-correlations rather than multivariate regressions, I dug up my old data and wasted my time performing a dozen of the latter:

    Naturally, the results came out just as I knew they would. Absolutely none of the white or Hispanic coefficients were statistically significant, with most of them being insignificant.

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