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The Crisis Is Not Over Until It Is Over
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From the sucess of preventative measures in reducing the infection rate and limiting the crisis to specific geographical areas such as New York City, we are in danger of concluding that the virus threat was a global false alarm. Indeed, this claim has now emerged in a German government report sponsored by a person in a department of the interior ministry. The report concludes that “probably at no point did the danger posed by the new virus go beyond the normal level” and that the only people who died from the virus were those who had already reached the end of their lives.

Tell that to New York City. Normal levels of illness and death do not overwhelm health care and burial systems. In New York City hospitals were overwhelmed and health care personnel were over-burdened. Politifact confirms that NY City had to rely on mass burials on the city’s Hart Island because of “the city’s staggering death toll amid the COVID-19 pandemic.” A staggering accumulation of corpses was also a feature of the crisis in northern Italy. We heard the same reports from Wuhan which cast doubts on the relatively small number of deaths reported. Currently, Chile reports that the country is hovering on the brink ( https://www.telesurenglish.net/news/Chilean-Scientists-Call-on-President-to-Change-COVID-Strategy-20200531-0002.html?utm_source=planisys&utm_medium=NewsletterIngles&utm_campaign=NewsletterIngles&utm_content=7 ) Flu season deaths are not known to over-tax health care facilities or to require mass burials. Clearly, the impact of Covid and the flu differ.

What is the point of a report that denies the obvious? I will believe the report when the governor of New York state and the mayor of NY City endorse it.

How such unrealism gets into reports is a mystery. One possible explanation is that the imposed restraints reduced the density of people on streets, in shops and work places and prevented or limited the spread of the virus from highly infected areas, thereby preventing other geographical areas from becoming centers of high infection. If none of these measures had been taken, there would have been more areas of high infection.

The present concern is whether the virus will be subdued by the onset of summer, with the result that a second wave is not sparked by the reopenings. Such an outcome would encourage the belief that the virus threat was exaggerated and strengthen the propaganda that it was a hoax, thereby leaving us sitting ducks if the virus seasonally reappears.

ORDER IT NOW

The challenge is to reopen with caution so that a second wave doesn’t result in a second closedown, but caution is being thrown to the wind by all the claims that the virus is not a real problem. New York City, northern Italy, and Wuhan, among others, know that the virus is a problem. So do the doctors and nurses who have had to treat Covid patients. The reason for protective measures is to keep the virus from becoming a problem as a result of high rates and levels of infection. If the virus runs unchecked, we will see far worse infringements of freedom than closedowns.

Even if the German report’s allegations were true, the reports of China’s massive struggle against the virus made the virus present as anything but a false alarm. In the face of such a perceived threat, do the German report’s authors think governments should have done nothing?

It is certainly possible that air pollution in Wuhan and other factors unique to China made the threat greater in China and that this was not taken into account by authorities in the West as they assessed the virus threat. The virus seems to best flourish in dense populations dependent on public transportation. Regardless, in cases of public health, it is better to over- than under-estimate the threat. That certainly seems to be the lesson from Hurricane Katrina where catastrophe resulted from underestimating the threat and public authorities were immobilized for days while people died.

The perception of the threat depends on whether or not a person or a geographical area experienced it. I haven’t heard NY authorities or people living in NY city claiming that the threat was overestimated. Less densely congested areas into which the spread of the virus was limited by closures and travel restrictions were spared from high infection rates. People in such areas would not perceive the threat to the same degree as people in New York.

The crisis is not over until it is over. Caution should be the order of the day. Reopening seems not to have worked in Chile ( https://www.telesurenglish.net/news/chile-santiago-to-collapse-with-no-beds-for-critical-patients-20200527-0003.html ). The last thing we want is a careless reopening that produces a second wave of virus infections. A second wave would make the hoax-mongers look very foolish, but I do not want the pleasure of saying “I told you so.”

(Republished from PaulCraigRoberts.org by permission of author or representative)
 
• Category: Ideology • Tags: Coronavirus, Disease 
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  1. James C says:

    As far as this reader is concerned, you have no credibility left.

  2. Indeed, this claim has now emerged in a German government report sponsored by a person in a department of the interior ministry.

    It was not really a government report. The person who wrote it had not been asked to write anything. He is a political scientist, not a specialist in the area of public health. He sent the report everywhere but nobody cared about it until he was finally suspended. The report is not an official report but the personal opinion of someone. After his suspension he is being subject to “disciplinary proceedings”. His email has been canceled, his laptop from the ministerium was taken from him.

    • Disagree: jsinton
    • Replies: @Alden
  3. Dear Dr. Paul Craig Roberts,

    The United States of America is a world renowned bastion of free speech & ideas. So-called ‘hoaxers’ are merely part of the human flotsam & jetsam of discourse on Internet today and should be considered as such.

    Rumor & innuendo is grist for the Internet Mill, and that should be expected too.

    When Tertiary Care Medicine collates their epidemiological research it will be peer-reviewed by hundreds of thousands of Virologists & Epidemiologists the world over. Their collective conclusions will then be assessed by lay journalists like yourself.

    When the Ivy League is willing to back their scientists with peer-reviewed research we will then talk turkey about a class-action lawsuit against the USA manufacturers. Rest assured that China & Russian Federation are not tied to the manufacture of SARS-2-nCoV-19 as it was produced in USA BSL-4 labs before deployment in Wuhan China.

    In GOF-Pandemic Pathogen manufacturing one only needs to analyse the genetic fingerprint to find the manufacturer & country of origin.

    RW

  4. meamjojo says:

    More PCR bloviating. Whew. I call your attention to:
    ————–
    Tracking The Pandemic: How Quickly Is The Coronavirus Spreading State By State?
    June 2, 20208:46 AM ET

    A large portion of U.S. cases are centered on New York City. Since March 20, New York state, Connecticut and New Jersey have accounted for about 50% of all U.S. cases. As of April 9, nearly 60% of all deaths from COVID-19 have been in these three states. While New York state appears to be reaching a plateau, as seen below, it notched between 8,000 and 10,000 new cases each day between March 31 and April 12.

    https://www.npr.org/sections/health-shots/2020/03/16/816707182/map-tracking-the-spread-of-the-coronavirus-in-the-u-s
    ———
    The USA is a big country. If the nexus of the virus is NY, NJ & CT, then THOSE states might have been/should have been locked down and everyone else left to live their lives.

    • Replies: @jsinton
    , @Alden
  5. meamjojo says:

    This is the response that we should have taken for CV19:

    New Rule: Immunity Booster | Real Time with Bill Maher (HBO)
    May 1, 2020
    Real Time with Bill Maher

    In his editorial New Rule, Bill argues that people should fight the coronavirus by strengthening their immune systems, rather than by sanitizing the universe.

    • Replies: @karel
  6. jsinton says:

    One now has to question PCR’s motives and mental capacity. He’s an economist? He was Reagan’s Assistant Secretary of the Treasury for Economic Policy? Jesus wept. Ronnie rolling in his grave for sure.

  7. jsinton says:
    @meamjojo

    NJ, NY, CT are the epicenter because they never stopped the subways, train, and trams from running. Enclosing hundreds of thousands of people packed like sardines daily in damp, cold conditions. Everybody going through the same turnstile. Everybody sitting in the same seats. At best de Blasio and Cuomo are guilty of negligent homicide. At worst, they are psychopathic homicidal NWO maniacs.

    • Replies: @Realist
  8. gsjackson says:

    New York’s burial system was overwhelmed? Is he talking about that 150-year-old burial ground for unclaimed indigents, doing normal business as in any other time for 150 years, which media propagandists were trying to make something of? How much trouble would it be to inform himself about something like that before writing?

  9. JasonT says:

    PCR:

    A civil society does not criminalize freedom in places that are relatively unaffected because of some places that are more affected. A civil society takes the necessary measures in the places that need to have such measures in place, while not in the places that do not. If you are waiting for Cuomo to endorse a report like the one that came out of Germany, then to will be waiting forever. It was Cuomo’s incompetence (or was it by design) that led to the problem being much larger in New York than most other places by forcing critically ill elderly patients back into care homes. For someone who has spent the last 20 years being critical of the oligarch shills like Cuomo, I find it utterly baffling that you would now take Cuomo’s word on anything.

  10. Alden says:
    @UncommonGround

    Thanks for the information

  11. Joel Ryan says:

    These keyboard crusaders who think they have it all figured out are bloody ridiculous. The cowering PCR, fresh off his latest profundities on the low cost of groceries in the WWII era, has been consistently wrong on Covid yet continues to churn out his opinions like they’re facts.

    Before the end of paragraph two in this piece, PCR states “Flu season deaths are not known to over-tax health care facilities…” Really? How about this headline from two years ago: Hospitals Overwhelmed by Flu Patients Are Treating Them in Tents
    https://time.com/5107984/hospitals-handling-burden-flu-patients/

    I get it, fear of the unknown can cause huge overreactions from otherwise rational people. However, writers like PCR should at least do some basic research before publishing these hysterical articles that only add to the mountain of disinformation wrought by this pandemic.

    • Agree: meamjojo
  12. “The Crisis Is Not Over Until It Is Over”

    “it ain’t over ’til the fat guy tweets.”

  13. karel says:
    @meamjojo

    Good idea, you just watch bleating Maher and your immunity miraculously improves. It could also mean that you have developed an allergy to that funny man.

  14. Realist says:

    The Crisis Is Not Over Until It Is Over

    So profound.

  15. Realist says:

    Politifact confirms that NY City had to rely on mass burials on the city’s Hart Island because of “the city’s staggering death toll amid the COVID-19 pandemic.”

    That is bullshit. The people buried on Hart Island are the indigent.

    Buchanan, Biden and you need to move into a home for the brain dead.

  16. Realist says:
    @jsinton

    NJ, NY, CT are the epicenter because they never stopped the subways, train, and trams from running.

    Large cities are the epicenter for all things bad…they are shitholes. Epidemics, riots, crime and if there is a nuclear war annihilation. Large cities are non essential…they produce nothing of value. Essential manufacturing in accomplished in small to medium size cities, research is conducted in small to medium size cities…usually college towns and food is produced in rural areas…in short big cities are expendable.

  17. PCR still won’t leave go of the mask crusade, even though he is well aware the WHO has stated… “healthy people should not wear masks unless they are caring for the sick”! PERIOD! On top of
    WHO saying “Sweden got it right, lockdowns were a mistake”! So the WHO is to be listened to at all costs except… When it doesn’t jive with PCR’s narrative?

  18. BuelahMan says:

    PCR’s continual fear mongering is bogus. Stick to Reaganomics. You can only fuck us so bad that way.

  19. We shall see in a week or two what the covid carnage is from all these US protests.
    Globally, we haven’t reached the peak of daily infections yet.
    Until then, I’m gonna be cautious and suspend judgement on the pandemic.

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