The Unz Review: An Alternative Media Selection
A Collection of Interesting, Important, and Controversial Perspectives Largely Excluded from the American Mainstream Media
 BlogviewPaul Craig Roberts Archive
Are You Ready for a Second Wave of Covid-19?
🔊 Listen RSS
Email This Page to Someone

 Remember My Information



=>

Bookmark Toggle AllToCAdd to LibraryRemove from Library • BShow CommentNext New CommentNext New ReplyRead More
ReplyAgree/Disagree/Etc. More... This Commenter This Thread Hide Thread Display All Comments
AgreeDisagreeThanksLOLTroll
These buttons register your public Agreement, Disagreement, Thanks, LOL, or Troll with the selected comment. They are ONLY available to recent, frequent commenters who have saved their Name+Email using the 'Remember My Information' checkbox, and may also ONLY be used three times during any eight hour period.
Ignore Commenter Follow Commenter
Search Text Case Sensitive  Exact Words  Include Comments
List of Bookmarks

In Florida pressure to reopen beaches, vacation rentals, arcades, and restaurants is coming from the tourist industry. Nationally, oil interests are lobbying hard as the price of US crude has hit negative amounts. How can oil be sold for a negative price? Because there is no room to store it. Traders locked into delivery contracts are finding it cheaper to pay someone to take the oil than to try to secure a place to store the oil. You see, distribution works through oil contracts made in the past for future delivery. These contracts were made prior to the economic shutdown that has greatly reduced demand for oil. Apparently, it is cheaper to pay someone to take the oil than to break the contracts.

There is no doubt of the economic disruption resulting from the effort to reduce the infection rate with closedowns. The question is whether a premature reopening will undo the work so far to control the infection rate and require another shutdown. Already the reported practice in New York is not to treat anyone 80 years old or over. Will a second wave reduce the non-treated age to 70, a third to 60?

Sweden is the only country that avoided a shutdown. So far Sweden’s death rate on a per capita basis is higher than Denmark’s, although not hugely higher. The Swedes are apparently more cooperative with prevention measures and require less control in order to exercise good judgment. The question is whether Swedes are gaining “herd immunity” that will in the end produce a lower death rate as countries in lockdown experience a second wave of virus when they come out of lockdown.

The question of herd immunity remains open as there are many known instances of reinfection and a recent report from Japan that the virus mutates more rapidly than believed and that some forms of the virus are more deadly than others.

People take hard positions on both sides of the lockdown/no lockdown issue even though there is no hard evidence on either side. We just don’t know. And the virus has been unfortunately politicized in many ways. A policy determined by political partisanship is unlikely to be a good policy.

 

Bloomberg News

ORDER IT NOW

Worried that a “devastating” second wave of infections could hit America this summer if states reopen too soon, governors who have been leading the effort to combat the pandemic labeled as “delusional” and “absolutely false” claims by Vice President Mike Pence that enough testing was available to prevent such a disaster. Despite the risks, President Donald Trump, his allies and some far-right groups have demanded states lift restrictions aimed at slowing the spread of Covid-19. Medical experts warn that a flood of Americans leaving their homes without proper testing and tracing in place will trigger a new outbreak, inundating hospitals and likely causing tens of thousands of additional deaths. In response to anti-shutdown demonstrators in Denver, medical professionals staged a silent counter-protest, resulting in this widely viewed video. Will the blond in sunglasses give herself death?

The One Thing About Which Fauci Is Probably Correct

https://thehill.com/homenews/administration/493647-fauci-warns-protests-against-against-stay-at-home-orders-will

Keep in mind that Trump has a political interest in reopening the economy as he faces an election. The Democrats have a stake in keeping it closed reasoning that people with no jobs and people losing their businesses will vote against Trump, as will people deprived of their sports and entertainment venues. It is not clear whether the election should be postponed for a more normal time. Will people expose themselves to crowds in order to vote? Will it be possible to vote from home? Will the outcome merely be an outcome of which side’s propaganda was most believed? In such a case, what is the value of the election?

Divisions in the US are so great that it is almost impossible for a policy that serves a common interest to emerge.

(Republished from PaulCraigRoberts.org by permission of author or representative)
 
• Category: Economics • Tags: Coronavirus, Donald Trump 
Hide 25 CommentsLeave a Comment
Commenters to Ignore...to FollowEndorsed Only
Trim Comments?
    []
  1. Anon[230] • Disclaimer says:

    Sweden is the only country that avoided a shutdown. So far Sweden’s death rate on a per capita basis is higher than Denmark’s, although not hugely higher. The Swedes are apparently more cooperative with prevention measures and require less control in order to exercise good judgment.

    Really? Is that the only conclusion you can draw? How about the Swedish result shows that a shutdown is completely unnecessary – you know, Occam’s Razor. To put it in scientific terms, Sweden is the control which shows the shutdown experiment has a null effect.

    The One Thing About Which Fauci Is Probably Correct

    https://thehill.com/homenews/administration/493647-fauci-warns-protests-against-against-stay-at-home-orders-will

    In your above statement, you admit that Fauci has been wrong about everything. Why do you give him any credibility now? Yes, I know, even a stopped watch is correct twice a day. But that doesn’t mean we should consult a stopped watch for the current time.

    Will people expose themselves to crowds in order to vote?

    Certainly most Trump supporters, who already believe that the Corona virus is no more deadly than the flu will brave crowds in order to vote. This is why the Democrats are pushing for vote by mail. The Democrats know that without vote by mail, Trump will have a landslide victory. Trump could even win New York and California.

    • Replies: @Levtraro
  2. ‘Are You Ready for a Second Wave of Covid-19?’

    Sure, I’m ready. Now, all the bullshit that comes with it: that’s a different matter.

    • Agree: mark green, nickels
  3. nickels says:

    The longer we play lockdown games, the longer the vulnerable have to shelter, and the more likely they are to slip up.
    The vulnerable need to find a hole, and everyone elses needs to get a pair.
    4 weeks maximum, probably less with the progress so far. This is the opinion of the esteemed epidemiologist Knut Wittinger.
    I dont want to live in a world where only mega-corporations and jobs at these facist institutions are all that exist.

    My personal prediction (no one knows) Is no spike.
    But spike or no spike we live on our feet not our knees.
    Let the cowardly hide as they please.

    • Replies: @TomSchmidt
  4. Wasn’t it Twain who said ” If voting made any difference, they wouldn’t let us do it.”? Over HALF don’t vote,and half of the other half don’t vote for,they” cast a ballot” against someone.The other half is made op/up of people who can’t read and probably should not be allowed to partake in such a casual exercise.The last half,the half that concern me the most, haven’t haved their entire lives and now may just throw bleach into the gene pool.If only we could Rig It , tons and tons of whatchacallit could be saved.

    It’s a FREE market,free country and we’ve almost patented a free lunch. Who said,”I’m from the government,and i”m here to help?” It is always ” the most important election of our lifetime.” Carlin said It’s the American Dream,because you have to be asleep to believe it”

    Peace,Love,Life

  5. journey80 says:

    https://www.globalresearch.ca/bill-gates-and-the-depopulation-agenda-robert-f-kennedy-junior-calls-for-an-investigation/5710021

    https://www.unz.com/wwebb/techno-tyranny-how-the-us-national-security-state-is-using-coronavirus-to-fulfill-an-orwellian-vision/

    https://www.globalresearch.ca/has-covid-19-testing-made-the-problem-worse-confusion-regarding-the-true-health-impacts/5709323

    The question I’m still waiting to hear asked and answered is what EXACTLY do the “tests” test for, and what EXACTLY do the “antibodies” protect against?
    Another question: how accurate are all these tests? Who says so? where is the credible proof of their accuracy?
    Another question: A test, if it were accurate, which it’s not, and if it actually tested for “COVID-19”, which it doesn’t, is a one-day snapshot, only useful when someone with symptoms is admitted to a hospital.
    The latest flurry of useless running around in circles over “testing” is at best a distraction and at worst a means of extending and magnifying the panic and allowing the CDC to go into every state and set up “contact tracing” teams – another in the steady erosion of privacy we are being trained to be abjectly grateful for.

  6. Anon[395] • Disclaimer says:

    Do you see, Mr. Roberts?
    Keeping comments allowed, and uncensored, lets one get a good idea about what the majorities are like.

    And maybe one day you’ll realize that the elite you so much oppose aren’t but a mirror of that.

  7. Levtraro says:
    @Anon

    To put it in scientific terms, Sweden is the control which shows the shutdown experiment has a null effect.

    No.

    In science, the control has to be exactly equal to the treatment except for the effect being tested or the control has to have a random distribution over all other possible effects except the effect being tested.

    Sweden is not exactly equal to all other countries and Sweden’s demography, geographic location, population size, density and distribution of population (among other important factors) are not randomized.

    In approximation the only comparison that would be reasonable is Sweden (no lockdown) vs. Norway (severe lockdown).

    Norway has the infection rate under control. It grew exponentially until the last week of March and has been decreasing linearly since the end of March. Yesterday they reported just 32 newly infected.

    Sweden has been on an exponential growth of the number of infected since early March to the present time. Yesterday they reported 676 newly infected. I just did a statistical analysys of Swedish data and the exponential model of growth of the newly infected is better supported than a milder, linear growth.

    • Replies: @Anon
  8. Patricus says:

    “We just don’t know”.

    That seems to ably sum up the current knowledge base of epidemiology. As a layman-non-scientist I read widely varying opinions by those advertising biochemistry credentials. Few physicists or chemists dispute the laws of thermodynamics or the gas laws. As for epidemiology there are endless subjective opinions.

  9. Anon[230] • Disclaimer says:
    @Levtraro

    In science, the control has to be exactly equal to the treatment except for the effect being tested or the control has to have a random distribution over all other possible effects except the effect being tested.

    There is no such thing as exactly equal. Sweden is the perfect control for Denmark because they have similar demographics and similar population density locations. In fact, one of Sweden’s largest cities, Malmo, is only separated from Copenhagen by a bridge.

    In approximation the only comparison that would be reasonable is Sweden (no lockdown) vs. Norway(severe lockdown).

    Are you saying that Norway’s lockdown is significantly more severe than Denmark!s? If so, give examples.

    The rest of your post is just a deflection from the core point that although Sweden has no lockdowns, its Covid -19 per capita death rate is not hugely higher than Denmark’s which indicates that lockdowns are completely unnecessary

    • Agree: Hail
  10. Bill H says:

    “people with no jobs and people losing their businesses will vote against Trump”

    Interesting thought, given that the jobs and businesses were terminated by state governors and not by Trump.

    Not one job was lost, and not one business was closed based on an order issued or a suggestion made by Donald Trump. He is now encouraging the governors who killed those jobs and businesses to revive them and they are not only saying no, they are saying, “Oh hell no.”

    So voters will not vote against the party that harmed them, they will vote against the president who did not cause their privation and who is trying to restore their livlihoods.

  11. @nickels

    I’m not sure why we have a lockdown anymore. Are we trying to extinguish the virus? If so, what is the plan for that other than “sit down and shut up in your house.” THe lockdown might have made sense when we didn’t know if the hospitals would be overloaded. Now we do: they weren’t, and NYC just sent back the naval hospital ship because the capacity isn’t needed. We are unlikely to overload hospitals in NYC next round, given the immense numbers of dead from the first round. Less affected places will have a crush like NYC, but we can guess they also won’t get overwhelmed.

    That was known as “flatten the curve.” Keeping everyone locked down beyond flattening the curve makes no sense, unless the authorities are going to try to kill the virus. Except: the virus got out and is in every country. So, even if the USA could exterminate it, we would need to have borders shut until its exterminated EVERYWHERE. Which means a coordinated global effort. Which maybe is the goal; I don’t know.

    • Agree: nickels
    • Replies: @RationalRabbit
  12. @TomSchmidt

    I’m not sure why we have a lockdown anymore. Are we trying to extinguish the virus

    No. We have a lockdown because the Democrats are trying to destroy Trump’s popularity and re-election chances by continuing to destroy the economy. Notice that it is the anti-Trump Democrat governors who are resisting opening up their states while instituting policies designed to inflict the maximum economic harm on the small businesses while the Republican governors are leading the way to re-opening.

    • Disagree: BuelahMan
    • Replies: @Jedi Night
    , @KenH
    , @TomSchmidt
  13. is there any validity at all to the bio weapon scenario/theory developed by Conspiracy Journalist George Webb ????

    if Webb is right then Covid19 is a gift that will keep on giving for life once infected..that the virus is an infection platform by which the infected become susceptible to any and all of the recent pandemics..AIDs, SARs, Ebola etc

    Weeb contends that Covid is a slow, long tern debilitating disease calculated to cost an enemy, wear them down and drown them in healh and human costs.

    is this true? and if it is what does it mean for America in particular with its burgeoning crop if infected citizens?

    • Replies: @Anon
  14. Ko says:

    The TDS leftists, and Hollywood crazies, and the China News Network and the rest of the blamestream media will act opposite of anything Trump says or does. So, what if by September, nothing happens? No doubt the UN-American deep-state will have an October Surprise (more Wuhan Virus?) to throw down as a last ditch effort to defeat the President. But, what if Trump declared the second wave is devastating way beyond human tolerance but we must not commit suicide. What a wonderful world it would be.

    • Replies: @Anon
  15. Anon[230] • Disclaimer says:
    @ben sampson

    is there any validity at all to the bio weapon scenario/theory developed by Conspiracy Journalist George Webb ????

    Let me ask you a question, if you were developing a bio-weapon, would you make it less lethal than the flu like Covid-19? If so, why?

    if Webb is right then Covid19 is a gift that will keep on giving for life once infected..that the virus is an infection platform by which the infected become susceptible to any and all of the recent pandemics..AIDs, SARs, Ebola etc

    And exactly how can we become more susceptible to AIDs, SARs,, Ebola etc? Are you saying that we will no longer have to have sex with someone with AIDs to get it?

  16. Catch a Wave and you’re sick on top of the world. But you will survive.

    • Replies: @SafeNow
  17. Anon[230] • Disclaimer says:
    @Ko

    No doubt the UN-American deep-state will have an October Surprise (more Wuhan Virus?) to throw down as a last ditch effort to defeat the President.

    It’s already started with the CDC issuing a warning about the second Coronavirus wave today. Trump and much of America doesn’t believe their BS anymore. Texas and Georgia will open which will force other states to follow suit. Expect Trump to fire Fauci, Birx and Webb fby the end of the year.

    • Replies: @Ko
  18. SafeNow says:
    @Priss Factor

    “But don’t treat it like a toy.”

    (Beach Boys, for those who might not know what we are talking about.)

  19. @RationalRabbit

    There are a bunch of pussy Republican governors too. ALL politicians are all about C.Y.A. first and foremost. But yeah, the longer this goes on, the more people are going to be pissed. Trying to blame it all on Trump, sure why not. Sounds like a losing hand to me, but wtf do I know, I supported Buchanan in ’92.

  20. BuelahMan says:

    Funny how PCR believes what the government he once worked for (and is probably why he has an audience to begin with) is lying about. The numbers used to predict the infection rate was wrong by about 95%.

    The narrative (which PCR seems to believe) does NOT match up to the actual numbers.

    But please BE AFRAID!

  21. KenH says:
    @RationalRabbit

    Notice that it is the anti-Trump Democrat governors who are resisting opening up their states while instituting policies designed to inflict the maximum economic harm on the small businesses…

    I noticed that too and the cat’s out of the bag with Cuomo talking about his increased budget if Trump helps bail them out and Illinois Democrats demanding 41 billion dollars, 10 billion of which would bail out their insolvent pension system. Curiously, COVID-19 seems to be the worst in debt ridden states with left wing Democrat governors with severe budget problems.

    I’ve long suspected they’re intentionally maximizing the economic damage to blame it on Trump and make a case for a federal bailout which they could get possibly since Trump’s such a pushover and that they could definitely receive if Dems capture both houses and oval office in 2020.

  22. Ko says:
    @Anon

    Fauci is a deep-state lifer

  23. annon says:

    The question might become how ready are your for So there are a certain set of states in America which have had a noticeable agenda already prior to the lock down. Anybody remember Animal Farm or Lord of the Flies? That’s how what’s been been deemed essential, and not what is truly medically derived policy per the long legal precedent in managing disease. Selectivity, seemingly based on ideological choices, is not legal at the least, and it is basis of those old stories.

    There are laws being dismissed, by our supposed more equal than other, mob of urban voters. The over reaching pattern among those leftist governors they’ve elected is striking. The first principle of course is to disarm all of “Piggies” friends and kill all that the 1st protects. Nobody relevant, of course saw these ‘cool kids’ coming. The next is to suspend the rest of our American Republic constitutionally derived protections. Such as undermining the Electoral College perhaps of which might normally include many potentially independent, historically knowledgeable, members of the anti democratic mob thing, called a constitutional Republic, political gangsters ‘find’ so horrible an obstacle. Nobody will be allowed to speak or assemble against these tyrants because of an over blown estimation few Americans are going to tolerate? Does gun control really work too?

    Save your own lives, don’t stay home! These type leaders, communist sympathizers, are getting more than they deserve at the expense of the voters they most despise. We could save lives by outlawing gun control to keep the whole range of killers at bay possibly? The tyrants will take credit for saving residents however, despite knowledgeable residents being left in the dark over “real” numbers or dismissed as impertinent. They will not answer legitimate, but will demonize, alternative experts instead, who might be asking these ideological con artists: “where did you get that data which makes you a hero now?”

    Some ‘yards’ are more equal than Piggy’s lot of course. Some churches are closed and their pastors are demonized, while other denominations or faiths are left open elsewhere? None of these select controls are based on medically sound reasons for the crackdown. I think some of it is personal animosity, however they are towing a certain line we might imagine could be derived from a CCP/UN Axis. But it certainly flattens the curve of financial security small business were beginning to enjoy in places that are not as likely to be hit hard by a virus. That’s the real curve they seek to crush and impoverish.

    The distribution of possible infections depends on location as well and a blanket policy based on prejudice and bias serves these urban based governors too well. Going down to a seemingly select group of corporate stores, such as Target (which we know is so very unbiased about leftist crap) is contrary to finding your way down to the much less crowded Mom and Pop store for your children’s clothing needs.

    That awkward policy only impacts rural areas principally, where the small business owners have already failed by now, and it is due to this universal generalization. The ‘cool kids’ are not getting a pass this time. “Piggy” is now Legion.” That’s it, in a nutshell, and we are seeing “Lord of the Flies” and “Animal Farm” all over again. Remember?

  24. @RationalRabbit

    That’s always a possibility, but the consequences to NY State and NY City of the lockdown have been immense. If the MTA isn’t bailed out for the billions they will lose in revenue, there won’t be a subway system. Multi-billion dollar holes have been blown in both budgets, and I don’t think they can be fixed: the virus caused a lot of people to work from home, and a lot of them will continue doing so. that drives down the value of commercial real estate and the taxes that can be collected on it, and also drives lower the sales taxes collected from all those workers. Add to that the loss of tourists and their dollars and taxes. Tourism might return but the writedown on the value of office space is going to be with us for a while.

    If they did it to spite Trump and drag him down, it recalls the aphorism that, before you set off down to road to seek revenge, you must first dig two graves. Nemesis has extracted her revenge in that case.

    • Replies: @RationalRabbit
  25. @TomSchmidt

    If they did it to spite Trump and drag him down, it recalls the aphorism that, before you set off down to road to seek revenge, you must first dig two graves. Nemesis has extracted her revenge in that case.

    You are quite correct that the Democrat efforts have boomeranged. Trumps popularity continues to increase. The Democrats hyping of the virus only serves to scare their own but not Trump’s base. This is why the Democrats want vote by mail because their base is too scared to physically go to the polls. Not to mention how vote my mail presents the Democrats with exciting new opportunities for voter fraud.

Comments are closed.

Subscribe to All Paul Craig Roberts Comments via RSS