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Another Phony Jobs Report
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As John Williams has made clear, the monthly payroll jobs number consists mainly of an add-on factor of 200,000 jobs. These jobs are a product of the assumption in the Birth-Death Model that new business ventures create more unreported new jobs than the unreported job losses from business failures. If we sustract out this made-up number, July saw a gain of 55,000 jobs, not enough to keep up with population growth. Even the 55,000 figure is overstated according to John Williams’ report: “The gimmicked, headline payroll gain of 255,000 more realistically should have come in below zero, net of built-in upside biases.”

In other words, the 255,000 jobs are the product of a virtual reality created by a faulty model and manipulations of seasonal adjustments. Williams says the real rate of unemployment is not the claimed 4.9% figure but 23%.

Even if we assume that 255,000 jobs were created in July, the news remains bad, because the jobs claimed are mainly lowly paid part time jobs without benefits and provide insufficient income to support an independent existence. This is why so many employed young people
continue to live at home with their parents.

The labor force participation rate, a measure of labor market strength, is far below where it was 22 years ago. The low participation rate is inconsistent with the claimed 4.9% rate of unemployment.

Real GDP growth has been flat since 2009. The government produces the illusion of growth by understating Inflation.

The conclusion is that Washington lies about the economy just as it lies about everything else.

The liquidity provided by the Federal Reserve, the European Central Bank, Bank of Japan, and Bank of England inflates the prices of stocks and bonds and keeps the stock market near its high. The inflated stock market creates the impression that the economy is strong. But, of course, if the economy were strong, interest rates would not be zero.

The house of cards will not forever stand.

(Republished from PaulCraigRoberts.org by permission of author or representative)
 
• Category: Economics • Tags: Unemployment 
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  1. My browser opens to Zero Hedge. It’s a great place for breaking news and some opinion pieces as well. Their stock in trade however is market news and analysis. I get a kick out of their eager anticipation of the jobs report. The jobs report is 100% pure bull shit. But that doesn’t prevent “investors” from trading it. There are no markets anymore. Just official lies and interventions.

    I operate a flea market booth on weekends. What a joy it is to conduct arms length, price negotiable, cash only transactions. It’s a real market place even if the money is bogus.

    • Replies: @The Alarmist
  2. Alfa158 says:

    The house of cards is actually already collapsing, and has been for a while. It is a matter of the time-frame within which we perceive these massive structures that have a lot of inertia, in motion. We still see pieces of the house seemingly standing in mid air with no visible support, but there is no magic involved. If we could fast forward the video we would see the house of cards dropping into a Brazil style heap. The people who run the system don’t care, they plan on being one of the cards on top of the final heap, and don’t care if the rest of the heap is a collection of favelas, as long as they can live in their fortified complexes.
    For years now I have been slowly moving my own portfolio out of stock market equities and into instruments that will retain a substantial fraction of their value like precious metals, commodities, and commercial trusts built around fundamental businesses that would continue to operate. Short of a “squirrel roasted on a stick, zombie apocalypse”, gold will still have value and people will still be buying oil and food. That means I haven’t gotten the double digit percentage gains per year from the stock market bubble, but on the other hand, when we had the recent market swoon where the indexes dropped by double digits, my portfolio only lost half a percent before coming back. I’m trying to work out what the portfolio will look like after a Great Depression type collapse and make sure what I would have left would be adequate.
    It isn’t easy; you have to fill out reams of government forms to prove that you have enough liquid wealth before the FTC regulations will let you buy some of these investments. It is almost like the government is doing everything it can to stop people from taking their money out of the stock market. But, they wouldn’t do that, would they?

  3. Johann says:

    We live in the kingdom of lies and are led by liars and fools. Welcome to the American Empire, a 24/7 freak show controlled by horrid people.

    • Agree: Orville H. Larson
  4. Rehmat says:

    Dr. Roberts we live in a deceptive world created by Hollywood and Zionist-controlled western media. In this world Dr. Goebbels is demonized for propaganda lies while western leaders, worse liars than Dr. Goebbels like Hillary, Trump, Obama, and of course Netanyahu, are portrayed as heroes.

    As far as Federal Reserve is concerned, it continue fulfilling its job for which it was created – to serve the Organized Jewry.

    The Federal Reserve is a consortium of nine Jewish-owned and associated banking institutions with the Jewish Rothschild family at the head. Even the name “Federal Reserve” was coined by German-born American Jewish banker Paul Warburg (died 1932), an employee of the Rothschilds. In practice, it’s over 95 percent privately-owned, is not integrated into the US Government, nor accountable to any branch of government. There is nothing “Federal” about it as it lies fully outside the government system of checks-and-balances. It supports the financial needs of the US imperialism, covert operations, usury, drug dealers, and the global banksters….

    https://rehmat1.com/2013/12/31/federal-reserve-century-of-zionist-control-of-us-dollar/

  5. @WorkingClass

    “I operate a flea market booth on weekends. What a joy it is to conduct arms length, price negotiable, cash only transactions. It’s a real market place even if the money is bogus.”

    Nice to know there are still some vestiges of capitalism that haven’t yet been eradicated.

  6. And Mr. Roberts didn’t even mention that whatever new (fictional or otherwise) net yobs were created were gobbled up by immigrants of one sort or another.

    I belive that Vdare feller that yammers about this all the time is Edwin Rubenstein.

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