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Another Fabricated Jobs Report
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Friday’s payroll jobs report is another government fairy tale or, to avoid polite euphemisms, another packet of lies just like the House of Representatives Resolution against Russia and every other statement that comes out of Washington.

Washington is averse to truth. Washington can only lie.

First let’s pretend that the 321,000 new jobs that the government claims the economy created in November are true, and let’s see where these jobs are.

Specialty trade contractors, which I think are home and office remodelers, accounted for 20,000 jobs. I doubt that people are putting money into houses and buildings that are worth less than the mortgage.

Manufacturing accounted for 28,000–a very high monthly figure for recent years, one that is unbelievable in view of the rise in the trade deficit and declines in consumer spending on furniture (-3.8%), major appliances (-8.3%), women’s apparel (-17.7%), and household textiles such as towels and sheets (-26.5%), and when US business investment consists of corporations repurchasing their own stocks.

The rest of the claimed jobs are in private domestic services, that is, they are third world jobs. Retail trade claims 50,200 and transportation and warehousing claims 16,700. These numbers are impossible to believe in view of the closings of middle class department stores and Black Friday and Cyber Monday sales flops.

Financial activities claims 20,000, most of which appear to be insurance related–perhaps the growth of Obamacare bureaucracy.

Professional and business services claims 86,000, a very large number for recent years. What are professional and business services?

Professional and business services are “accounting and bookkeeping services” (16,400 jobs)–a possible (temporary) increase as W2s for 2014 are coming due to be issued–and ”administrative and support services (40,600 jobs)–mainly temps.

Next we come to “health care and social assistance” with 37,200 jobs concentrated in “ambulatory health care services” and “social assistance.”

Then we have “food services and drinking places” with 26,500 claimed jobs.

Bringing up the rear is Government employment with 7,000 jobs.

What are we to make of these job claims?

It is unlikely that there were 26,500 new jobs for waitresses and bartenders when consumer spending on restaurants, alcohol, and entertainment declined by 3.8%, 4.5%, and 5.4%.http://www.zerohedge.com/news/2014-12-02/middle-class-spending-crash-explained Restaurants and bars do not hire more people when demand is dropping.

No one hired 50,200 new retail clerks when anchor stores of shopping centers are closing and strip malls stand abandoned in unfinished construction.

If we are sufficiently gullible to believe the BLS jobs report of 321,000 new jobs in November, we should be disturbed that the vast bulk of the jobs are third world domestic service jobs that do not produce exports to offset the massive trade deficit of the US offshored economy. Moreover, the majority of these jobs do not produce sufficient income for a person to establish a household or qualify for a mortgage or car loan.

America is bleeding herself dry so that corporate executives and shareholders can live the high life on bonuses and capital gains resulting from exploited foreign labor and the destruction of the American middle class.

Now, let’s move on to other conclusions. John Williams, an expert on government statistical data, points out, ignored of course by the presstitute media, that full-time employment in America today is 2,400,000 less than employment in 2007.

What this means is that the US is short 2.4 million jobs from 7 years ago. So how is there an ongoing recovery? In the meantime the population has grown.

Remember, the official unemployment rate is low, because discouraged workers who cannot find jobs are not counted as unemployed. To be counted as unemployed, you have to be actively searching for a job. As job search is expensive and unemployed people have no money, when job search produces no results people give up. They are unemployed but not counted as such.

John Williams points out that most of the 321,000 new jobs were created by manipulating seasonal adjustments and by the birth-death model that arbitrarily adds jobs that the BLS model assumes were created that month. The BLS never provides any proof of those phantom jobs.

John Williams also points out that many of the payroll jobs are part-time jobs and one person often has several jobs. As no one can live on one part time job, many households and individuals are sustained by multiple part-time jobs. The jobs are not a measure of the number of employed, because many persons hold several jobs in order to make ends meet.

Keep in mind that much of the increased activity in the highly touted payroll employment numbers is tied to multiple part-time jobs held by individuals. In other words there is double and triple counting of those employed.

The alleged “recovery” is based on severely understated inflation. When an item in the inflation index rises in price, a lower priced item is substituted for it or the price increase is called a “quality improvement” and not registered in the inflation index. This keeps the official inflation rate low. Therefore, when nominal GDP is deflated by the understated inflation index, real GDP growth is the result. The growth is an illusion. In fact, the “real” GDP growth is merely the non-measured price rises or inflation that is not captured by the erroneous methodology.

There is practically no official inflation, but somehow the price of ground beef rose 17 percent during the year. http://www.globalresearch.ca/low-inflation-the-price-of-ground-beef-has-risen-17-percent-over-the-past-year/5409588 Presstitutes and PR flacks explain away the price rise as the result of drought while others blame the price increase on smaller beef herds.

With inflation outpacing the growth of real incomes, consumer purchasing power is falling. Real spending fells with the fall in purchasing power. John Williams’ inflation estimates are much higher than the government’s and indicate that the bulk of the population is experiencing extreme financial hardship.

An economy based on consumer spending cannot grow when real consumer incomes and/or consumer credit do not grow. As these are not growing, the “recovery” is a fiction created by a measure designed to understate inflation.

In the 21st century “democratic” Western policymakers have brought about an extraordinary concentration of income and wealth in elite hands, while subjecting the vast majority of Western populations to financial stress.

ORDER IT NOW

The ladders of upward mobility have been taken down. A new aristocracy of wealth has been created along with a militarized police state to defend the aristocracy’s interests. A political-economic-social system has been created in the West in which only the elite have a stake.

This stake is based on a house of cards. The utterly corrupt central banks of the West, a collection of gangsters, have kept the house of cards standing longer than I thought possible. But it will be a historical first if a house of cards stands forever. The derivatives exposures of four American banks exceed by several times the world GDP. There is no way these exposures are covered by the banks’ capital or by their depositors deposits.

Wall Street and the presstitute media have manufactured the impression that all is well, and those fools driven by greed have gone along with the manufactured impression. But the facts are otherwise.

(Republished from PaulCraigRoberts.org by permission of author or representative)
 
• Category: Economics • Tags: American Media, Unemployment 
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  1. Hard-hitting essay, Mr. Roberts, made especially trenchant by your observation of true inflation and its crippling effects.

    Last year my state’s public service commission rubber-stamped the electricity utility’s 10 percent rate increase, and it’s now preparing to rubber stamp in early 2015 another rate increase of 9.65 percent. The coming 2015 rate hike will be the sixth big electricity rate increase since 2007. Oh, did I mention that last year the utility enjoyed record profits? – yet it still wants to further fleece its customers who are shackled to the utility’s monopoly.

    So it’s not just the price of ground beef that’s been inflating; and the costs of pork, bread, vegetables, fruits, & other staples have also risen steadily.

  2. Gregorios says:

    Fabrication is a pretty serious accusation to be based on no evidence.
    In am assuming the author just neglected to include references for his statements, and not that he is being so irresponsible.
    Also, the “I don’t believe it likely, therefore must be false” is pretty low in the scale of fallacies.

    • Replies: @edwardk
  3. edwardk says:
    @Gregorios

    Paul Craig Roberts, whether it is gold or oil prices, or employment, asserts market or statistical manipulation when reality collides with his tired incorrect forecasts.

    Nonetheless he is spot on about the USA being increasingly a third world economy. But so what. Most of the population growth in the USA is in third world sub populations, why would you expect these groups to become theoretical physicists or chemical engineers? And if they could, or did, there still wouldn’t be any need for these skills , R&D and manufacturing are third world jobs (China-India) which pay nothing on global market clearing wages. Even the domestic tech jobs , semi-tech actually, in the web 2.0 economy are dead end cubicle wage slave hell holes.

    I urge PCR to consider the jobs market a revealed production function which adapts endogenously. Inputs are shifting towards low wage, low skill,factors because that’s what the socio- economy provides in abundance. And the only buyers with cash are the older generation, whose amassing of wealth had everything to do with the carpet bombing of Germany and japan– not some innate productive skill, which subsequent market dynamics demonstrate. The economy is releasing income from stored wealth even though the reservoir is not replenishing itself, it still flows at a similar rate. And there is no follow up population to buy the McMansions or hire more domestic servants. The same model is applicable in europe and north asia. Demography is destiny.

    The global crash in gold and oil is a verification of the above, not an indication of market
    manipulation. But PCR is indeed correct, it is a harbinger of the new dark ages, feudalism under a crass ChIndian hostile elite.

  4. Why is consumer spending on alcohol dropping? That usually increases in bad economic times. Because of Islam? AA?

    • Replies: @Bill Jones
  5. David says:

    Just after the .com bust, SSDI applications jumped and the approval rating went from 50% prior to 36% post. So SS Admin sees jump in numbers are people dealing with persistent unemployment by becoming disabled and it doesn’t play along. The 36% approval rate held steady to the present, plus/minus. Around 2007, the number of applications goes up even more, by a million a year, and like I said the approval rate doesn’t change, so with this next wave of unemployment-driven disability, SS Admin doesn’t lower the application approval rate like it did before. And so there are 2 million more folks collecting free money and not being counted as unemployed ahead of what the earlier trend would have projected. They should be counted as part of the hidden unemployed.

    http://www.disabilitycanhappen.org/research/charts_graphs.asp

  6. Kiza says:

    The US Government lies are so prevalent, that I have to fully Agree with PCR – there is only lies, lies and more lies. The format of an article does not permit a lot of referencing. Who needs proof, let him visit shadowstats.com. On this website, just check out the shadowstat’s alternative unemployment rate in the US, both the level and the trend. John Williams, the website owner, is making a living by offering alternative statistics. How would that be possible if the USG statistics were correct? Who buys? Businesses buy, because they are putting money on the economic outcomes and USG lies cost money. The US reality: killing of powerless citizens by the police with impunity, economic and financial data lies, delipidation of the national infrastructure, total manipulation of all markets and prices, provocation of wars, stealing of any money that the privileged US businesses (banks, Goldman, JP etc) can lay their hands on and so on and so on.

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