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Usually reliable intelligence sources are reporting that the situation for a couple of Arab rulers is getting desperate. Moammar Ghaddafi actually used artillery against crowds of demonstrators in Benghazi this morning, killing hundreds, and is calling up his tribal supporters and telling them to prepare for civil war…also Saudi troops have crossed the causeway and are in Barhain backing up the local security forces, some of which are Pakistani trained special forces on temporary duty loaned as mercenaries to the Emir. Don’t know how much of it is true, but it would seem that things are going to get a lot messier real fast if this keeps up…

The US has a base and fleet hqs in Barhain which could easily be moved and nothing to speak of in Libya. The only real downside to the overthrow of the two leaders would be concern that Barhain would align with Iran through its majority Shi’a population, but it is difficult to imagine what that would mean in real terms and the danger is probably overstated. Saying goodbye to Ghaddafi would be just fine.

(Republished from The American Conservative by permission of author or representative)
 
• Category: Foreign Policy • Tags: Arab Spring 
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  1. The Shi’a angle is interesting. I gather that there is also a large Palistinian diaspora in the Gulf States who add another wild card to evolving events. Ghaddafi made a statement years ago that seemed to indicate a local (Berber?) vs Arab hostility. Ghaddafi says many old things but if there is any substance to this rift, then this too is a wild card where North Africa is concerned. Any thoughts?

  2. Raashid says:

    Ironically, shia’s are far less of a threat to the US in terms of the “keeping Americans safe” angle, as they don’t carry out the sort of ruthless indiscriminate terrorism as practiced and funded by the hardline Salafi-takfiri jihadists. But of course, US policy isn;t about keeping Americans safe from terrorism, nor about protecting the US’s interests. Israel’s whims IS American policy.

  3. Gerald says:

    The only real downside to the overthrow of the two leaders would be concern that Barhain would align with Iran through its majority Shi’a population.

    Downside for whom, Phil? Certainly you don’t mean for American patriots.

  4. Sigmund says:

    No longer an Emir. Now a King.

  5. According to AFP, Bahrain is angering the local Shia population by granting citizenship to large numbers of South Asians and others who take jobs the local Shias just won’t do, like IT and engineering.

    I wonder where the Emir got that idea?

  6. Jim Bovard says: • Website

    But this all increases the odds of Sharia law taking over America, right?

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