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Imperial Overstretch Arrives: Americans Do Not Need the American Empire
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© Photo: REUTERS/Shannon Stapleton
© Photo: REUTERS/Shannon Stapleton

This piece is being written as voters are going to the polls on election day in the United States. While it has been useful to consider how things might change, possibly for the worse, one must also recognize that much of what happens in the U.S. and in its far-flung empire operates by virtue of its own internal dynamics and rules, something that is often referred to as the “Deep State” or perhaps more accurately as the Establishment.

Witness for example the occasional possibly sincere but unsuccessful White House attempts over the past four years to withdraw or reduce the numbers of U.S. troops embroiled in various armed conflicts worldwide. All of those initiatives have been frustrated or redirected in one way or another and it is not simply a question of bungling by a politically insensitive Donald Trump versus the result that might have been obtained by a more experienced and responsible Democrat. What drives the empire’s engine is essentially bipartisan, even in its own way, apolitical, existing as it does as a form of leaderless shadow government that functions as a community-of-interest rather than a bureaucracy. It is inclusive and reflective of the real centers of power in the country, namely the national security state and Wall Street.

In a recent article Pepe Escobar dispels any expectation that a kinder, gentler foreign policy might emerge from the election. He describes with some alarm how victory by Biden will mean that the national security “Blob” team that wrecked Syria, Yemen, Ukraine and Libya while also assassinating Americans overseas under President Barack Obama will be back. He cites former CIA presidential briefer Ray McGovern who persuasively describes the “Blob” as the MICIMATT (the Military-Industrial-Congressional-Intelligence-Media-Academia-Think-Tank complex). One might well add the Federal Reserve Bank to that list.

So, the engine keeps chugging on, driven my its own self-interests and completely oblivious to what is going on around it. The irony is that the crisis in confidence that simultaneously is besetting the United States in part reflects a very real, largely self-inflicted decline in America’s place in the world due to insistence that it maintain global hegemony. It comes at a time when the empire is entering into a phase of increasing irrelevancy which many of the key players involved are either unable or unwilling to recognize, no matter what their political affiliation might be. That means that the United States is locked into a pattern of behavior that it is incapable of changing. It is a nation that has become addicted to war for no good reason, and that addiction has brought neither security nor prosperity.

The signs are everywhere. The costs of empire continue to rise while real benefits to be derived from it are elusive. The United States government spends far more on a bloated defense budget than it can afford, adding to an unsustainable national debt that currently exceeds $27 trillion, which is 128% of the country’s entire gross domestic product. The debt will likely increase dramatically if there are any more coronavirus stimulus packages. The nation is becoming hollowed out as a result.

America’s “allies” have inevitably rightly become increasingly disengaged from Washington, reluctant to comply with Washington’s directions and demands, while the developing transition from the dollar as the world’s reserve currency is proceeding and will have catastrophic consequences. When the U.S. Treasury stops being able to print money at will, there will be national insolvency.

In terms of the United States’ interaction with the world, a country that not so long ago was widely respected is now regarded as the principal source of international instability, disliked everywhere but Israel, another rogue nation. And the internal damage inside the U.S. to core values and expectations is also evident, to include increasingly dysfunctional schools that focus on political correctness rather than education, crumbling infrastructure, a broken health care system, and a dying industrial and manufacturing base. Unique among all developed countries, life expectancy among working class Americans is declining.

At the root of it all is what Yale professor Paul Kennedy once described as “imperial overstretch,” which means projection of power in support of global commitments that are not essential to national well-being and bankrupting oneself in the process. The reality is that unless an “imperial” acquisition is done purely for exploitative reasons, as Belgium did in the Congo, having an empire operates at a considerable loss. Napoleon “overstretched” when he invaded Russia and both Russia and Austria-Hungary collapsed as a result of the First World War because the stress of external conflict made their obligations far exceed their resources. Great Britain’s Empire likewise became expendable after World War Two when the costs of maintaining outposts “east of Suez” became much larger than the benefits.

So, there are many good reasons for the United States to retrench and again become a “normal” nation, if that is at all possible, but the fact that no candidate but Tulsi Gabbard and Bernie Sanders even suggested that America’s global interventionism might be reconsidered or even reversed is telling. Both were eliminated by the Democratic party establishment. In the case of Gabbard, the executioner was no less than Hillary Clinton. Whoever is the new president, he will inherit the awful conceit that he is the “leader of the free world.” It is past time for a serious discussion of America’s proper place in the world, but that will require completely overturning the country’s Establishment and challenging the “exceptionalism” view that the U.S. must dominate as a “force for good.” Unfortunately, there is no politician anywhere on the horizon who is able and willing to take the lead on such an endeavor.

Philip Giraldi, Ph.D. is Executive Director of the Council for the National Interest.

(Republished from Strategic Culture Foundation by permission of author or representative)
 
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  1. Quibble:

    … no candidate but Tulsi Gabbard and Bernie Sanders even suggested that America’s global interventionism might be reconsidered or even reversed is telling. Both were eliminated by the Democratic party establishment.

    More accurately, they were squelched to the extent that what they said wasn’t Exceptional! but showed their lack of principle by supporting the Team Red warmongering nominee. (Rand Paul is their Team Red complement.)

    Most people here knew in 2016, if not earlier, that Mr. Sanders is a Proggy sheepdog. Ms. Gabbard this time around had lots of support among the commenters, but there won’t be nearly as much if she tries again.

    • Replies: @Richard B
  2. It is a nation that has become addicted to war for no good reason, and that addiction has brought neither security nor prosperity.

    The addiction is to “growth”. For most of our history growth was real, albeit ruthlessly accomplished, but for the last century the growth was a Ponzi scheme.

    The standing military, and its offshoot, the intelligence apparatus was created to maintain that growth.

    All Ponzi schemes eventually fail.

    In the meantime we have destroyed our base of independent businesses and farms – sacrificed to the god, “growth”. There is no turning back, the bridges are burned.

    • Agree: Sollipsist
    • Replies: @Notsofast
  3. anonymous[252] • Disclaimer says:

    “imperial overstretch,” which means projection of power in support of global commitments that are not essential to national well-being and bankrupting oneself in the process.

    If you are a reader of this blog you probably believe the most influential lobby in Washington is made up of supporters who are supernatural in prowess. But what makes me question the foresight of the Israel lobby is the lack of recognition that overstretch could decrease the capacity of the US to defend Israel and redraw the Middle East. I would be truly be impressed by the lobby’s ability to think several steps ahead if it actively sought to pull back on commitments in Europe (Russia) and Asia (China) to make the presence in the Middle East sustainable when the defense budget eventually falls to 2% of GDP.

    Can anyone name a single person affiliated with the Israel lobby who is warning about the effect of overstretch elsewhere on the empire’s bases in the Middle East? Among military planners you see the ability to see ahead already in action. The Marine Corps is in the middle of radical change based on predictions that the defense budget will rapidly fall over the decade. Marines will dispense with armor units entirely and downsize into a Western Pacific force. Does that mean the Marine Corps senior officer corps is smarter than the bigshots of the Israel lobby?

    • Replies: @Wyatt
    , @animalogic
  4. America’s “allies” have inevitably rightly become increasingly disengaged from Washington, reluctant to comply with Washington’s directions and demands,

    I know this sounds odd, but it seems to me that it is the Trumpian way of dissolving NATO (aka Israel`s pitbull). When his statements questioning NATO`s relevance were scorched, he turned to “make them pay their share”. I suspect even Trump understood that would not play well, except, perhaps, in the (((occupied))) UK. If he was seeking to become less interventionalist, the best way is to mistreat the puppets. Oddly, no NATO makes wars for Israel less palatable for the respective populations of NATO members and more difficult for their governments, as they have to declare independently.
    Free trade is not fair trade, and certainly not the Trumpian concept of fair trade. Free trade means offshoring industry. Fair trade means tariffs. It`s easier to get out of the free trade business if your “partners” have their knickers in a twist.

  5. Wyatt says:
    @anonymous

    Jews, contrary to what they and their zionist apologists will tell you, are not that smart. They don’t think that far ahead and their overwhelming lack of humanity means they won’t accidentally see their own failure looming through compassion for others. It’s how they can send western goy to die fighting the Palestinians and then, ten years later, beg for money during Christmas for starving Holocaust survivors (lol).

    The sheer hubris they have that they are special, they need to be doted on and that they deserve unending sacrifice will eventually kill them, but it won’t be by white hands. Either the Chinese will grind them out of existence or the Arabs will outbreed and overtake them. There’s no way they can win in the long term and thank God for that.

    • Replies: @Realist
  6. I do not understand why people are claiming this because Trump increased military and intelligence spending more than any president in modern history, congress never leaves, so that leaves the media, academia, and think tanks, and think tanks are usually included in intelligence and academia, so maybe a transfer in priority to pro DNC funded think tanks, but still, with the many Republican politicians, their pork barrel projects will always make their way into the budget as they always have and always will, unfortunately. Academia must be exposed for the corrupt, fraudulent, evil, barbaric, anti-humanitarian, tyrannical, monsters that they have been and still are, getting worse and more abusive with each passing day. So, now they will be on the defensive, having to defend themselves for their crimes against humanity and out right fraud. Let’s see how they handle themselves when they have to defend their actions and their policies of full blown fraud, corruption, and barbaric monstrous, evil, Orwellian attrocities that all will be subjected to, including their own descendents, in their remarkable mental incompetency and short sightedness for their own narcisstic glorification at the expense of everyone else on earth. I am waiting for an explanation!

    Andrea Iravani

    • Agree: showmethereal
  7. SteveK9 says:

    It’s a little off-topic but the comment in the article about US ‘insolvency’ makes no sense. And, no matter how many times people repeat it, it never will make sense. US debt is all in US dollars, which the US can create at will … as noted constantly both here and practically everywhere. So, the US can ALWAYS pay any bill denominated in US dollars.

    If the dollar loses its status as the World reserve currency and the medium of exchange, and the demand for more dollars dries up, that will mean that the value of the dollar will fall relative to other currencies and probably internally as well. That will mean imported goods will be much more expensive, and even goods made at home will have price inflation. But, that will also mean that US goods exported will be cheaper, and substitution of imported goods will make more sense. The trade balance will shift dramatically, and may even go into a surplus, which would be a plus for American workers. So, it is not clear at all that the US is headed for disaster and unless it starts borrowing Euros or Renminbi it can NEVER be insolvent.

  8. I really couldn’t care less about “America’s”, allies, whoever they may be. Saddam was our ally against the Soviets and so was the Taliban. But when the wall fell and loosed the communists for good , it seems we took out the last hold outs against their push. But hey, we all love China, North Korea and Vietnam now right?
    A big eight months in office!
    “Bush Unpopular in Europe, Seen As Unilateralist
    Results of a Multinational Poll in France, Germany, Great Britain and Italy
    Overview
    George W. Bush is highly unpopular with the publics of the major nations of Western Europe. By wide margins, people in Germany, France, Great Britain and Italy all disapprove of his handling of international policy, and the American president does not inspire much more confidence in these countries than does Russian President Vladimir Putin.”
    https://www.pewresearch.org/global/2001/08/15/bush-unpopular-in-europe-seen-as-unilateralist/

  9. anonymous[400] • Disclaimer says:

    locked into a pattern of behavior that it is incapable of changing

    What worked before for a long time is going to work less and less until even the blind can see that it’s no longer feasible. Part of this holding on to old behaviors will entail more confrontations and small size wars, some by proxy, ending in stalemate or even defeat. It’s a downward spiral of an over the hill empire looking to hang on to what it has even as it can’t expand anymore. Trump appears to sense this and has been blocked from trying to pare things back and gear up for a softer landing. The establishment, or deep state, appears to be incapable of realizing this and wants to double down on it. This is a path to disaster. This is one of Mr Giraldi’s most prescient articles.

  10. Realist says:
    @Wyatt

    It’s how they can send western goy to die fighting the Palestinians and then, ten years later, beg for money during Christmas for starving Holocaust survivors (lol).

    Yes, the insolent hubris of some Jews is obvious in the television ads by The International Fellowship of Christians and Jews…and it’s not just at Christmas.

    The sheer hubris they have that they are special, they need to be doted on and that they deserve unending sacrifice will eventually kill them, but it won’t be by white hands. Either the Chinese will grind them out of existence or the Arabs will outbreed and overtake them. There’s no way they can win in the long term and thank God for that.

    The Chinese will not tolerate the Jewish bullshit…unless the are really stupid. The tolerance of Jews by Whites is due to religion…the Chinese do not suffer such.

  11. @SteveK9

    Your comment is absolutely true. This debt that is constantly referred to is is of no consequence if dollars can be printed without causing inflation. This is the reason America fights tooth and nail to keep the dollar as the world’s reserve currency and gold backed currencies are violently opposed.

  12. Friend says:

    We are witnessing an attempted coup by the globalists who are terrified their agenda is being nixed gradually in Europe, Russia and the US. Even China isn’t paying ball any more.

  13. Some Americans do need the Empire. The US sytem has been predicated on inputs from imperial holdings for well over a century. The unfortunate Haitian or Guatemalan was fully integrated into the US economic apparatus, which is why the Marines were busy ensuring their freedom from self-determination in the early part of the twentieth century. These outposts of the Empire provided markets that could be comprehensively exploited, and served as a relief valve for the people who really matter in the US. The infantile fantasy view of the benevolent freedom-promoting US simply couldn’t withstand the rigours of a fully globalized rentier economy propped up with US-backed dictators and bolstered by the world’s only fleet of aircraft carriers, combined with nuclear weapons. All this served to consolidate a structure in which the US elites, with fingers in every pie across the globe, could bend over the rest of the US population at a whim, whilst keeping them deluded in the belief that they lived in the best of all possible worlds due to that system. It sucks to suck, but it really sucks when you discover that you suck.

    • Agree: showmethereal
    • Replies: @Malla
  14. Franz says:

    It is past time for a serious discussion of America’s proper place in the world

    But Americans cannot discuss it.

    We have a parasite regime, as your work has demonstrated, and THEY do all the “discussing”.

    I find myself wondering how breaking free of the parasite without collapse and I keep coming up blank. There is no precedent for an “empire” that’s run entirely for an offshore criminal regime. If there is, I’d welcome hearing of it.

    • Replies: @Rufus Clyde
  15. @Franz

    The empire that has existed since 1688?

    • Replies: @Franz
  16. Notsofast says:
    @another fred

    “All ponzi schemes eventually fail.” Not if they are constantly reinflated. Everytime the grand ponzi scheme of the stockmarket or the uberponzi scheme of the derivitates market is about to explode (or implode) we happen upon a national or international crisis. This time mother nature tried to kill us all, wiping out wall st AND main st. We need helicopter money to save BOTH. Trillions to reinflate the ponzi scheme and a pittance to small business, so its not so apparent they are looting the country, like a steak thrown to the dog as you rob the house.

  17. Bert33 says:

    So, you’re kinda missing it. War is good for business. https://www.fool.com/investing/stock-market/market-sectors/industrials/defense-stocks/ Here’s an article that might help to clarify the situation a little. War has gone corporate. To the tune of several hundreds of billions of dollars annually: https://www.americanprogress.org/issues/security/reports/2020/05/06/484620/pentagons-fiscal-year-2021-budget-meets-u-s-national-security-needs/ Money makes the world go ’round and it also apparently has a heavy influence on contemporary US foreign policy. It can even fairly be said that in these two articles lies a basic description of the true heart of the federal govt. Again, war is good for business. You can keep the poppies and the speeches and the rest of it, they’ll keep their quarterly dividends, pretty much.

  18. @anonymous

    Perhaps — Israel doesn’t care about any future US decline? Perhaps they’ve already factored it in ? — Israel is ready to jump ships, do deals etc with others ?
    Perhaps Israel knows it will be able to stay on the US teat longer than anyone or anything else?
    They (Israel) seem to keep on winning…. until they don’t.

  19. Franz says:
    @Rufus Clyde

    That too.

    But the real empire started in 1666 and a short overview is all it takes to convince most people that that’s the one we’re all paying tribute to in century 21:

    1666 Redemption Through Sin: Global Conspiracy in History, Religion, Politics and Finance By Robert Sepehr

    https://ambiguousyard36hag.files.wordpress.com/2017/04/1666-redemption-through-sin-global-conspiracy-in-history-religion-politics-and-finance_x50hn2t.pdf

    PS — Sepehr is a renegade anthropologist and his other stuff is illuminating also. I mean that in a good way.

  20. Americans Do Not Need the American Empire

    But Americans suck up to Jews who want Jewish Hegemony and love to ‘support the troops’ out of ‘patriotism’ or because it spreads globohomo around the world.

  21. Typo

    So, the engine keeps chugging on, driven my its own self-interests and completely oblivious to what is going on around it.

    At the root of it all is what Yale professor Paul Kennedy once described as “imperial overstretch,” which means projection of power in support of global commitments that are not essential to national well-being and bankrupting oneself in the process.

    But even without empire, society would rot because of Jewish ‘internal over-wretch’. Christianity turned into Sodomania, pornification of culture, deviant lifestyle, Afro-megalomania, mindless Jew worship.

    Ireland and Sweden have no empires but are decaying because their internal cores have been rotted by ‘Soroscery’.

    Many more whites died of opioids and black crime than by imperial wars.

    • Replies: @Lost American
  22. Sean says:

    So, there are many good reasons for the United States to retrench and again become a “normal” nation,

    There never has been, and never could have been, what you call a normal nation, in the sense of one possessing enough power to extend its rule, but proceeding to decide that it would not not.

  23. @SteveK9

    Manufacturing is becoming more and more automated. That is the enemy of US workers – not outsourcing. The US produces more than it ever has in history – but the percentage of the workforce keeps shrinking. What losing the status of reserve currency will do is make the US more “honest” in that it will have to live within it’s means.

    • Agree: Joe Levantine
    • Replies: @Sean
  24. @Realist

    “The Chinese will not tolerate the Jewish bullshit…unless the are really stupid. The tolerance of Jews by Whites is due to religion…the Chinese do not suffer such.”

    Where do you get your ideas?? Jews (and Muslims and Christians) lived in China for centuries. They were a part of the Silk Roads trade. Israel went behind the US back and helped China develop weapons systems in the 80’s because the Chinese were one of the few groups of people who always treated them well. Even Communist Mao ordered the Jewish quarters in Harbin and Tianjin and Shanghai to be preserved. You can still go there and see them to this day. The great synagogue in Harbin – after the Russian Jews migrated – was preserved and turned into a concert hall now. The history is preserved though. In Shanghai and Tianjin – the dwindling number of WW2 survivors – still travel(led) to Tianjin and Shanghai to revisit the places they sought refuge and to thank the locals for treating them so well – even though the locals were dirt poor at the time also. Chinese have no “fear” nor “hatred” of Jews.

    • Replies: @Realist
  25. Realist says:
    @showmethereal

    Jews have no power in China…neither do Christians or Muslims. Therefore they will eat our lunch.

    • Replies: @showmethereal
  26. Sean says:
    @showmethereal

    Manufacturing is becoming more and more automated. That is the enemy of US workers – not outsourcing. The US produces more than it ever has in history – but the percentage of the workforce keeps shrinking

    Which does not stop the importation of immigrants to compete for those jobs, and also the jobs in construction, agriculture and so on that are actually de automating because labour is cheap. You don’t need a cement mixing machine if you can get Mexicans to do it by hand. Productivity in the US has long been stagnating because of immigration. The emphasis on shareholder value has further dampened innovation. The American elite have won the class war, but at the worst possible time.

    An increase in the the absolute productive capacity of America is irrelevant, because relative power is the thing. The power of the US is going to decline inexorably relative to China’s. That means the US is going to get increasingly desperate as nothing they try to do to slow the rise of China to position of the world’s most powerful economy seems to work.

    Biden has publically and explicitly said that China is not a rival or competition for the US, and Trump rather than China is blamed for COVID-19. Had he been re-elected Trump would probably not have been able to stop America’s being supplanted by China anyway, but a Biden presidency makes it inevitable. Eventually America will decide it has nothing to gain by waiting and can’t damage its eventual position by doing so; they’ll roll the dice, but that (war with China) is a decade or so away.

    • Replies: @Anonymous
    , @showmethereal
  27. Sean says:

    At the root of it all is what Yale professor Paul Kennedy once described as “imperial overstretch,” which means projection of power in support of global commitments that are not essential to national well-being and bankrupting oneself in the process.

    The parallel he drew was the British Empire, but the coaling stations and basing system to protect the route to India did pay as long as opium could be sold to China (60,000 chests by the 1880s, India is now the world’s biggest producer of legal opium), and stopped when it didn’t. The British rule in Ireland ceased within a generations of the estates begining to drain resources from Britain.

    America is very unlike Britain in having a continental economy, and after Kennedy propounded his thesis in the late seventies, it turned out that rather than America being the one to collapse, it was was the USSR and for reasons that remain obscure to this day, but maybe had something to to with the growing awareness of the affluent lifestyle enjoyed in the West.

    The USA saved a lot of money by the 1947 ceasing of American assistance to Nationalist Chinese forces, but then found its forces in Korea attacked by Red Chinese troops in the Korean war. Then there was Vietnam which was a proxy war by China, but also had the objective of pushing America back. If America withdrew from Japan for example, what effect would that have? it seems unlikely that Russia would enter or Japan even stay in an American led defensive alliance against China if the US withdraws from the area. The same logic applies to the Middle East.

    The Saudi energy (CO2 fracking may be in the future) reserves must be accounted a crucial source of world power, and they are run be a family dictatorship that relies on the US to protect it (liberation of Kuwait and then the overthrow Saddam when it became obvious that the population of Saudi Arabia would not accept the US army stationed there protecting the ‘Custodian of the Two Holy Places’ from Saddam). Israel is part of the US concern with Saudi Arabia, although Israel are admittedly more trouble that they are worth–so far at least.

    If you have allies, they expect to be protected. In a nutshell, America could withdraw from military intervention in the rest of the world, but US allies on the other side of the oceans would feel under no obligation whatsoever to remain loyal. America could forget about Russia, India, or even Japan helping to contain China. And such a broad based alliance is the only way to prevent things turning kinetic.

    • Replies: @Anon
    , @Malla
  28. @Realist

    “ Yes, the insolent hubris of some Jews is obvious in the television ads by The International Fellowship of Christians and Jews…and it’s not just at Christmas.”

    The fish rots from the head down. Look at Catholic Popes like the ‘sainted’ John Paul II address the Jews as “ Our elder brothers in the faith”. Listen to other Christian scholars elaborate on Judeo-Christianism, the most blatant oxymoronic concept.

    So, will the Chinese avoid going the slippery path of treating Zionists as something so special that it is worth sacrificing the nation for the sake of preserving Jewish Zionist interests? Chinese people being non Christian and steeped into Confucianism might give them an edge over White Christians whose religious identity has been infiltrated by the Scofield Bible and by Vatican II, so as to keep their dealings with Jews in general and Zionists in particular within a frame of total pragmatism away from stifling ideology.

    Once the ship of American Empire starts sinking, the first people to abandon ship will be the Zionists. Hopefully, the ship will sink too far away from the shore without any nearby islands.

    • Replies: @Realist
  29. Realist says:
    @Joe Levantine

    So, will the Chinese avoid going the slippery path of treating Zionists as something so special that it is worth sacrificing the nation for the sake of preserving Jewish Zionist interests?

    If they don’t they will die like we are.

    Chinese people being non Christian and steeped into Confucianism might give them an edge over White Christians whose religious identity has been infiltrated by the Scofield Bible and by Vatican II, so as to keep their dealings with Jews in general and Zionists in particular within a frame of total pragmatism away from stifling ideology.

    I wouldn’t say the Chinese are steeped in any religion…including Buddhism…which is probably the number one religion in China. The Chinese do not let religion get in the way of progress.

    • Agree: Joe Levantine
  30. Global imperial governance has become a supranational process run by the mega-elites; a movable feast untethered to the US or China, … and pretty soon with a “bitcoin”, to any national currency. Nation state sovereignty, formally grace a neoliberalism, is clearly already 30 yrs. dead.

  31. Anon[165] • Disclaimer says:
    @Sean

    it was was the USSR and for reasons that remain obscure to this day, but maybe had something to to with the growing awareness of the affluent lifestyle enjoyed in the West.

    That is one of Paul Cockshott’s arguments for Soviet collapse. The Soviet middle and working class had steady growth in incomes and living standards even during the “stagnation” years of Brezhnev and the 80s, but the Soviet upper professional and managerial class, while also seeing increases, did not increase dramatically relative to the working class. Whereas during the same period, the upper class in the West saw income and wealth increase dramatically relative to the Western working class which stagnated or declined. The Soviet technical and upper class compared themselves to their counterparts in the West and were demoralized.

    • Replies: @Sean
  32. Anonymous[126] • Disclaimer says:
    @Sean

    Eventually America will decide it has nothing to gain by waiting and can’t damage its eventual position by doing so; they’ll roll the dice, but that (war with China) is a decade or so away.

    China’s economy could double in size over the next 10~15 years. And its navy is likely to be dominant in the West Pacific by 2030. So the US will likely try to initiate war in the coming decade or so as you say.

    • Replies: @Sean
  33. Sean says:
    @Anon

    He has an interesting website. These things are always relative. It does not have to be venal, a patriotic feeling that the country is falling behind its peers is a powerful impetus to revolution. Early in the pandemic Trump said:-

    “President Xi is strong, insightful, and totally focused on conducting the Coronavirus counterattack … There is great discipline in China and President Xi is effectively running what will be a very successful operation …”

    It was generally thought that the new disease would be like SARS in 2003: easily contained in China. However, a serious mistake on the part of Trump was to speak as if China instead of America was going to save the world. I think it is being forgotten that China imposed tariffs on products from areas that were strongly for Trump.They were in no great hurry to cut of international flights. The Chinese lockdown was one person ever three days could leave the house for food and that was all.

    China had 5G robots, hospital rooms printed in 3D, a digital monetary system based on QR codes, and thousand bed hospitals sprouting in ten days ECT ECT. They saved themselves, and created a terrible problem for Trump who had already alienated the intelligentsia over global warming. The American discussing class were embarrassed and ashamed.

  34. Sean says:
    @Anonymous

    Xi is being silent about Biden’s win. Call me suspicious but I do not think that is because he is upset, but rather because he does not want to risk even standard diplomatic niceties to Biden in case they add to a perception that he is someone China finds preferable to Trump. I expect this is the begining of hysterical fluctuation in US politics with single term presidents becoming the norm as it becomes obvious no one has the answer to China. That may reduce US Presidents’ authority and make military initiatives by America less likely.

  35. @Sean

    Importation of immigrants is a separate matter to the “outsourcing” of jobs that supposedly destroyed American manufacturing.
    But I do agree with much of what you said. Except Trump actually hastened the US decline. Chinese companies were happy to simply keep buying technology from the US (in spite of the bluster about “stealing” – check the stats – China pays more for tech licensing than any other nation – and buys the most from the US). Forcing them to come up with alternatives will hit US companies in the pocket. That in turn affects their R&D budgets and tech prowess.

    • Replies: @Sean
  36. @Realist

    Well if you put it that way – yes. China is unique. China has the most millionaires in the world – but they don’t control the country. They have the second most billionaires in the world – after the US – but they don’t control the country. They now have the most Fortune 500 Global countries in the world – but yes they don’t control the country (Jack Ma’s Ant Group just had the largest IPO in the world postponed because the government wasn’t happy with the regulations)… They have 30 million Muslims – which is only a little bit less than the whole population of Saudi Arabia. They have the most Buddhists in the world and actually have the second most Christians in the world after the US. The difference is Christianity is still growing in China. But correct – they don’t have real power.

    That is all because of the system. there are no elections to buy. As to what happens in the future – – none of us knows. But the trends are obvious.

    • Replies: @Realist
  37. Sean says:
    @showmethereal

    Immigrant labour retards better organisation (and automation) for productivity gains, but it does mean lower costs. It’s about improving shareholder value in America, not R&D budgets and tech prowess. The Chinese market is where future gains in SV will be created. To get access to that market, US companies will have to build factories in China. That will be portrayed as the US on the economic offensive by Biden.

    The man from corporate-friendly Delaware has explicitly said that China is not a rival of, or competing with, the US. When you take into consideration that Wall Street index funds are investing in China, and its economies of scale to employ that capital, the Chinese will have huge advantages and will not have to do anything outstandingly clever over the next ten years. I expect them to keep a low profile to help Biden, like Xi is over the election result.

    • Replies: @showmethereal
  38. Realist says:
    @showmethereal

    Well if you put it that way – yes. China is unique.

    That’s the only way to put it. They can get things done without interference from dumbass special interest groups.

    That is all because of the system. there are no elections to buy.

    Which makes the US many times more corrupt than China.

  39. Malla says:
    @Rufus Clyde

    Empires are expensive, if you ask me it are the American tax payers who fund the Empire, while the elites eat up the benefits.
    During the British Empire, the British subjects of the Crown were the most taxed people on Earth and we Indian subjects of the same Imperial crown, were some of the least taxed on planet Earth.

    These outposts of the Empire provided markets that could be comprehensively exploited,

    Haiti? Guatemala? How big markets are they? Small populations that are poor. What percentage of American exports account for these outposts? 0.0001%?

    • Replies: @Wyatt
  40. Malla says:
    @Sean

    America could forget about Russia, India, or even Japan helping to contain China.

    India wishes to fight China on its own, if needed be. USA or no USA. Australia or no Australia. Japan or no Japan. Vietnam or no Vietnam. It is just happy to get American and QUAD assistance. That is it.
    The Indian elites fucked up. By lying and chest thumping up the Indian population, now the anti-China emotions has taken a life of its own. It is the Indian Govt who are under constant pressure by the billion plus Indian masses to “teach the Chinese Imperialists some lesson”.
    All countries do that, rile up its own population via propaganda. China did that even before WW2, it still does that, the USA does that. But the Chinese Govt knows how to put a lid of these popular emotions when needed. In India, things have gone out of control.
    Anti-China India is a ready made gift that the Zio elites of the West have got from the Universe against China. Just like anti-German Poland was gift to the Zio elites against Third Reich Germany during WW2 or how anti-Japanese China was a gift against Japan during the same war. Maybe God really is Jewish.

  41. @Sean

    “US companies will have to build factories in China”

    But here is the thing… Manufacturing in China is becoming more and more automated. 1/3 of the industrial robots in the world are being in China. European company ABB is building the largest robot factory in the world – in China. The irony is – the robots will be building robots.

    https://new.abb.com/news/detail/9410/abb-to-build-the-worlds-most-advanced-robotics-factory-in-shanghai

    young people in China don’t want to be factory workers… they want to design robots. there are more STEM grads in China each year than the US and EU combined (yes really). ABB is a perfect example. It has 5000 employees in China and more than 10% of them are engineers and technology workers. that is the real competition. the education systems of the two countries. Trump nor Obama were able to change that paradigm. Biden??? We’ll see.

  42. Richard B says:
    @Greta Handel

    Most people here knew in 2016, if not earlier, that Mr. Sanders is a Proggy sheepdog. Ms. Gabbard this time around had lots of support among the commenters, but there won’t be nearly as much if she tries again.

    You’re probably right. But beyond that, and more importantly, the bigger picture is looking more and more like the pattern in a Shakespeare tragedy. Meaning, the extinction of a ruling group and the establishment of a new dynasty. Or, in this case, the extinction of the hostile elite and the establishment of China as the new leader on the stage of world history.

    It’s actually a pretty relevant and useful analogy. And that’s no small thing. Since the only mental instrument we have is analogy, and all we can do with it is predict.

    In any event, in all of those tragedies the ruling group is suffering from a socio-moral infection in the microcosm and the macrocosm. Interestingly, it actually functions like a plague (or virus), a moral illness that spreads throughout the entire group eventually driving them to insanity, violence and death.

    As in,

    something’s rotten in the State of Denmark

    Of course, the superficial layer regarding characters and story are different. But the underlying pattern is the same. The clear and obvious mechanics of moral infection. He wasn’t Shakespeare for nothing.

    The important point is that health can not be restored until the infection has spread throughout the elite and wiped it out. In that regard, it’s character, not demographics, that’s destiny. And the hostile elite are self-focused, low-character leaders par excellence.

  43. Wyatt says:
    @Malla

    Philippines are a better example for the US. Japan and South Korea as well. The value depends on the intelligence of the denizens of the land. Africans and Mesoamericans are too intelligence challenged not only to be functional governors, but they can’t handle complicated labor that well either. When they arrive in the US, only the elite among them prove capable. Intelligence matters a lot more than people think.

  44. @Priss Factor

    Priss factor
    I went back to Ireland a few years ago. It is too bad they believed what the American Mainstream Media has told them. Maybe they will wake up. The country people are not buying into it but I saw that many had their TVs on and were watching idiot British and American shows. People are mesmerized by this thing called television. How come many of us find most all sitcoms boring, stuoid, repulsive, foul?

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