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How Black Swans Are Shaping Planet Panic
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Is the planet under the spell of a pair of black swans – a Wall Street meltdown, caused by an alleged oil war between Russia and the House of Saud, plus the uncontrolled spread of Covid-19 – leading to an all-out “cross-asset pandemonium” as billed by Nomura?

Or, as German analyst Peter Spengler suggests, whatever the averted climax in the Strait of Hormuz has not brought about so far “might now come through market forces”?

Let’s start with what really happened after five hours of relatively polite discussions last Friday in Vienna. What turned into a de facto OPEC+ meltdown was quite the game-changing plot twist.

OPEC+ includes Russia, Kazakhstan and Azerbaijan. Essentially, after enduring years of OPEC price-fixing – the result of relentless US pressure over Saudi Arabia – while patiently rebuilding its foreign exchange reserves, Moscow saw the perfect window of opportunity to strike, targeting the US shale industry.

Shares of some of these US producers plunged as much as 50% on “Black Monday.” They simply cannot survive with a barrel of oil in the \$30s – and that’s where this is going. After all these companies are drowning in debt.

A \$30 barrel of oil has to be seen as a precious gift/stimulus package for a global economy in turmoil – especially from the point of view of oil importers and consumers. This is what Russia made possible.

And the stimulus may last for a while. Russia’s National Wealth Fund has made it clear it has enough reserves (over \$150 billion) to cover a budget deficit from six to ten years – even with oil at \$25 a barrel. Goldman Sachs has already gamed a possible Brent crude at \$20 a barrel.

As Persian Gulf traders stress, the key to what is perceived in the US as an “oil war” between Moscow and Riyadh is mostly about derivatives. Essentially, banks won’t be able to pay those speculators who hold derivative insurance against a steep decline in the price of oil. Added stress comes from traders panicking with Covid-19 spreading across nations that are visibly unprepared to deal with it.

Watch the Russian game

Moscow must have gamed beforehand that Russian stocks traded in London – such as Gazprom, Rosneft, Novatek and Gazprom Neft – would collapse. According to Lukoil’s co-owner Leonid Fedun, Russia may lose up to \$150 million a day from now on. The question is for how long this will be acceptable.

Still, from the beginning Rosneft’s position was that for Russia, the deal with OPEC+ was “meaningless” and only “cleared the way” for American shale oil.

The consensus among Russian energy giants was that the current market setup – massive “negative oil demand,”positive “supply shock” and no swing producer – inevitably had to crash the price of oil. They were watching, helplessly, as the US was already selling oil for a lower price than OPEC.

Moscow’s move against the US fracking industry was payback for the Trump administration messing with Nord Stream 2. The inevitable, steep devaluation of the ruble was gamed.

Still, what happened post-Vienna essentially has little to do with a Russia-Saudi trade war. The Russian Energy Ministry is phlegmatic: Move on, nothing to see here. Riyadh, significantly, has been emitting signs the OPEC+ deal may be back in the cards in the near future. A feasible scenario is that this sort of shock therapy will go on until 2022, and then Russia and OPEC will be back to the table to work out a new deal.

There are no definitive numbers, but the oil market accounts for less than 10% of Russia’s GDP (it used to be 16% in 2012). Iran’s oil exports in 2019 plunged by a whopping 70 %, and still Tehran was able to adapt. Yet oil accounts for over 50% of Saudi GDP. Riyadh needs oil at no less than \$85 a barrel to pay its bills. The 2020 budget, with crude priced at \$62-63 a barrel, still has a \$ 50 billion deficit.

Aramco says it will be offering no fewer than 300,000 barrels of oil a day beyond its “maximum sustained capacity” starting April 1. It says it will be able to produce a whopping 12.3 million barrels a day.

Persian Gulf traders say openly that this is unsustainable. It is. But the House of Saud, in desperation, will be digging into its strategic reserves to dump as much crude as possible as soon as possible – and keep the price war full tilt. The (oily) irony is that the top price war victims are an industry belonging to the American protector.

Saudi-occupied Arabia is a mess. King Salman is in a coma. Every grain of sand in the Nefud desert knows Jared of Arabia Kushner’s whatsapp pal MBS has been de facto ruler for the past five years, but the timing of his new purge in Riyadh speaks volumes. Princes Mohammed bin Nayef, the king’s nephew, and Ahmed bin Abdulaziz, his younger brother, are now really in detention.

The CIA is fuming: Nayef was and remains Langley’s top asset. When Saudi regime spin denounced “Americans” as partners in a possible coup against MBS, that word needed to be read as “CIA.” It’s just a matter of time before the US Deep State, in conjunction with disgruntled National Guard elements, comes for MBS’s head – even as he articulates taking over total power before the G-20 in Riyadh next November.

Black Hawk down?

So what happens next? Amid a tsunami of scenarios, from New York to all points Asia, the most optimistic say that China is about to win the “people’s war” against Covid-19 – and the latest figures confirm it. In this case, global oil demand may increase by at least 480,000 barrels a day.

Well, that’s way more complicated.


The game now points to a confluence of Wall Street in panic; Covid-19 mass hysteria; lingering, myriad aftershocks of Trump’s global trade mess; the US election circus; total political instability in Europe. These interlocked crises do spell Perfect Storm. Yet the market angle is easily explained: that may be the beginning of the end of Wall Street artificially inflated by tens of trillions of US dollars pumped by the Fed through quantitative easings and repos since 2008. Call it the calling of the central bankers’ bluff.

A case can be made that the current financial panic will only subside when the ultimate black swan – Covid-19 – is contained. Borrowing from the famous Hollywood adage, “No one knows anything,” all bets are off. Amid thick fog, and discounting the usual amount of disinformation, a Rabobank analyst, among others, came up with four plausible Covid-19 scenarios. He now reckons it’s getting “ugly” and the fourth scenario – the “unthinkable” – is not far-fetched anymore.

This implies a global economic crisis of, yes, unthinkable magnitude.

To a great extent it will all depend on how fast China – the inescapable crucial link in the global just-in-time supply chain – gets back to a new normal, offsetting interminable weeks of serial lockdowns.

Despised, discriminated against, demonized 24/7 by the “system leader,” China has gone full Nietzsche – about to prove that whatever does not kill you makes you stronger when it comes to a “people’s war” against Covid-19. On the US front, there’s scant hope that the gleaming Black “helicopter money” Hawk will crash down for good. The ultimate Black Swan will have the last word.

(Republished from Asia Times by permission of author or representative)
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  1. Great article which cuts to the chase and shines a bright light upon a chaotic situation.

  2. G. Poulin says:

    Chaotic article which shines a black light on phosphorescent wall images, making them glow while everybody gets high.

    • Agree: PetrOldSack
  3. Maybe it’s all a Globalist false flag to lock us all down into the serfdom the Criminal Elite have wanted to return us to for the last 600 years.

  4. Beckow says:

    The 2020 great unravelling will be blamed on the black swans. Unfairly, since they only matter when the mood is right.

    No one knows anything. But that has never stopped people from making money. And there is a lot more money in unraveling things, then in building them up.

    • Agree: Kratoklastes
    • Replies: @NoseytheDuke
  5. The Russian system for taxing exported crude is going to change. However, just now there are three breakpoints in the tax system that means that all exported crude over the first \$35 ish a barrel (the actual is in RUB/tonne) is taxed at about 90%. So oil companies in Russia won’t notice the fall in the oil price. State tax revenues will take the hit. Russia can’t spend its tax surplus anyway so Russia wont be troubled by this. Russia wants import substitution anyway.

    The EU, Japan, Turkey and India are all intensive importers of oil. They will boom. Buy shares with strong exposure to these economies, especially energy utilities.

    The US, UK and China are less intensive importers. They are oil producers with industrial economies attached. Energy intensive industries like metal refining and concrete production will become more profitable than for decades.

    Raw material economies are going to be thrashed, except maybe copper/lithium/nickel producers. Dubai will rule the Gulf as it actually has an economy, furthermore one that will react positively to cheap flights. Buy some exposure but not until the virus is on the wane. No one of influence will be in a hurry to lift sanctions on Iran, sadly. Indonesia’s rising star will wane.

    Summer is coming; Wuhan flu won’t strike at its worst until late September, early October. By then the Chinese, at least, will be vaccinating the vulnerable; By Christmas everyone will be doing so. Panic over. The surviving airlines and train companies will revive dramatically.

    • Agree: Alfred
    • Replies: @Redneck farmer
  6. The global financial markets stand in little relation to reality, the power of nations. What might change is elites compartitions secondary to nation might, since the financial markets are synonym for transborder elite migrations.

    For the surplus populations of this trans national world, pay for corn as you would for steak as usual. So yes, the mentioned scenarios are all feasible Mr. Owen.

  7. truthman says:

    But the real question on the minds of all Unz readers needs to be addressed. How will this effect non-white immigration into the EU and USA?

  8. @Beckow

    That is all true but it isn’t really a Black Swan at all and is more likely a case of what dear Baldrick would have called, “a cunning plan”. A real Black Swan is when nothing has ever occurred like it before nor had it could have even reasonably been foreseen.

    Prior to Europeans arriving in Australia nobody had ever seen black swans nor knew of their existence, hence the term.

    • Replies: @animalogic
    , @PetrOldSack
    , @sarz
  9. @The Alarmist

    I agree with you.
    One big Psy-Op to enslave us more and put us more into debt!

    UK Column News – 11th March 2020.
    (A window into what is happening in the UK)


    START – Carnage: Bank Of England. announces emergency measures to deal with CoronaVirus…
    Fusion Doctrine at work: coordinated action between banks and across bank departments.
    This is a continuation of establishment hysteria over CoronaVirus.
    None of these people are accountable to the public.
    Goldman Sachs predicts stock markets will collapse by another 15% by the summer.

    UK budget day today: ‘levelling up’ the economy (the CoronaVirus budget)
    MainStream Media propaganda is driving public hysteria and panic.
    CoronaVirus response is completely disproportionate in relation to the threat
    A closer examination of CoronaVirus details and facts not being reported by MSM.
    The more testing is done, the less of a problem this disease appears to be…
    Why are government and MSM peddling grossly skewed stats in order to spread fear…?
    CV: a number of health professionals are starting to speak out about hysterical coverage.
    CoronaVirus is being used to push. alternative, radical government agendas…

    24:32 – Government inquiry: the future of journalism (why does no one believe it…?)
    Houses of Parliament seem very concerned that the MSM is not succeeding any longer
    Will government start to fund MainStream Media in future…?
    Government control of media – when have we seen that before…?
    26:57 – BBC Outside Source: what’s it like being the parent of a porn star…?
    Presenter & creator of BBC OS: meet Ros Atkins.

    BBC Twitter thread links through to very unsavoury material but is open to children…
    BBC documentary: online child sexual abuse – don’t do what I did…
    Documentary producer and editor: meet Jamie Ryan and his dark side.
    Documentary commissioning editor: meet Kimberley Rowell.
    Documentary series producer: meet Anisa Subedar.
    Internet Watch Foundation: trust us…we’re ‘independent’
    IWF Independent Chair: meet Andrew Puddephatt OBE
    IWF Industry Vice-Chair: meet Becky Foreman.
    IWF: a look at their financial partners.

    35:14 – Energy Systems Catapult: innovating to net zero…stop flying, eating meat, travelling.
    Will government use a ‘pandemic’ to force the public to radically change their behaviour…?
    French ministry of health: cocaine does not protect against CoronaVirus…
    The French public immediately see through this charade.

    • Agree: The Alarmist
    • Replies: @PetrOldSack
  10. @truthman

    Just saw this article from AP:

    The headline is “The Latest: El Salvador bans foreigners to keep out virus.”

    Any second now, the sensitive and enlightened ones at NYT, WaPo, MSNBC, CNN, NPR and all the rest will be hurling themselves on their fainting couches shrieking “Borders are RACIST!!!!!” and “Quarantines are RACIST!!!!!”

    Then again, maybe they won’t.

  11. Alfa158 says:

    If things get ugly enough economically the US and EU will shut off immigration. Being stupid is OK when you have the luxury of saying “the United States is rich enough to be stupid”. Once we stop being rich the stupidity will be ramped way back.

    • Replies: @Sick of Orcs
  12. uradel666 says:

    1. There is no doubt that any war of modern management strictly adheres to and carefully follows, in cost and benefits, the Economic pattern (of World’s leading countries). If this is not the case, the severe economic and financial crisis is the logical consequence. A case in point is Ukraine occupied and annexed by Russia. As a result, Russia is up to its eyes in sanctions. Finance and economics go first, and then wars. There is nothing like top priority than finance and economics. No one can change this “contract”.

    2. “Coronavirus” theme is nothing more than financial and economic project, not the war issue. Nor, it is a “leak accident”. This is a dirigible project designed by Global Financial Sector to prevent the worst global financial crisis since the Great Depression and/or to mitigate the grave domestic banking crisis forthcoming. To sustain a strong economy the bloated deficit should be reduced. “Coronavirus” theme is nothing more than financial and economic project of deflating these and other economic problems, not the health issue.

    3. In addition, this may be currently seen either as financial and economic type of prevention of war or warlike preparations themselves, not as war per se. This does not preclude the chance variations throughout the “crisis” of course.

    4. The persons of interest are the main holders (joint creditors) of US Government (T-)bonds (including the US itself) who straddled strategic amount of financial (“cash”) assets; it just so happened, that those are the Countries with high capital export national debt. Except China. China is the main debtholder with lowest external debt. That’s the deal of the Century! The USA has accepted the unfavorable conditions just to restrain its ambitions.

    The Tiger enters the international scene with global ambitions.

    • Replies: @Alfred
  13. gotmituns says:

    Just the latest strain of the flu. But because of the way people live now, seldom going outdoors or physically moving around, their immune systems are weak and that’s why they’re so prone to the effects of this bug.

    • Agree: Crazy Horse
  14. Biff says:

    The black swans in the photo are absolutely beautiful…

    • Replies: @Alfred
  15. Smith says:

    I hope this will teach the world not relying on China to make every fucking thing.

    But I’m not holding on my hopes.

    The good side effect of this is that nationalists are gonna surge ALL over the world.

    • Replies: @Tomas
    , @Barr
  16. nsa says:

    Poor Man’s Baltic Dry Index Warning: humble nsa walks the sand cliffs overlooking the Straits of Georgia daily with his very energetic girlfriend (70 lb giant terrier ). Normally you can see 2 to 4 cargo ships and supertankers at any given time, heading for the ports of Seattle WA and Vancouver BC. However, for the last week have not seen any cargo haulers or tankers at all…..not one! Looks like trade between North America and Asia has been suspended entirely. Quite ominous, really.

    • Thanks: Nonny Mouse
    • Replies: @Jmaie
  17. Tor597 says:

    Interesting development. Trumps corona virus meetings are classified because they deal with China. This bolsters suspicions that this is a bioweapon.

    Maybe China already re-engineered the virus to attack America. But if this is true then why would Trump not test aggressively?

    Maybe Trump is not testing because it would reveal there are already million of people infected.

  18. Sean says:

    China – the inescapable crucial link in the global just-in-time supply chain – gets back to a new normal, offsetting interminable weeks of serial lockdowns.

    Despised, discriminated against, demonized 24/7 by the “system leader,” China has gone full Nietzsche – about to prove that whatever does not kill you makes you stronger

    Wall St is counting on China. Trump’s problem is that he cannot hurt China without crashing Wall St, so far has the inextricable entanglement between the two countries’ economies gone.

    Russia is a very different kettle of fish, inasmuch they are nothing to Wall St., and are fighting in Ukraine. An open attack on the US economy at a vulnerable time for Trump does suggest that Putin is not favouring Trump though.

    The CIA is fuming: Nayef was and remains Langley’s top asset.

    It is very difficult for outsiders to know what is going on in the Saudi royal family, however being seen as an agent of foreign power would seal one’s fate. This crisis is shaping up as most serious for Iran which lacks the innate reserves of power possessed by the US China and Russia . Saudi Arabia are not going to see MBS as a anything but a successful leader if Iran is brought low by oil price war, coronavirus and stupidly provoking America by disrespecting it its Embassy of all things, and getting the greatest Iranian hero immediately killed in retaliation.

    American Fed has just cut interest rates half a percent so frackers (the gas one anyway) are in profit as long as they can get cheap capital. Some will go bankrupts but the industry as a whole is going to survive on a more stable foundation. And the shale oil in the US will still be there and could be left for when it becomes more valuable as a strategic reserve, which it probably ought to be anyway.

    • LOL: bluedog
  19. @NoseytheDuke

    “Prior to Europeans arriving in Australia nobody had ever seen black swans nor knew of their existence, hence the term.”
    Yes. But there’s a bit extra ( i believe): philosophers used the “black swan” as an example of the “non-existent” thing in their little syllogisms etc. So their discovery was ironic indeed.

  20. @truthman

    But the real question on the minds of all Unz readers needs to be addressed. How will this effect non-white immigration into the EU and USA?

    It’s not who we are to ask such questions. Besides that, the increased genetic diversity they bring can only enhance our strengths, other diseases they might bring be damned.

    Stick to the herd flock, and you will be immune.

  21. Tom Welsh says:

    Russia is not fighting in Ukraine.

    If it had been, it would have reconquered the country several years ago.

    • Agree: Biff
    • Thanks: bluedog
  22. @Philip Owen

    Hey buddy, only blackpilling allowed here!;)

  23. Herald says:

    Yes, fantastic opportunities awaits those who are fortunate enough to be still standing and are not bankrupt. Great news indeed.

  24. Que sera, sera
    Whatever will be, will be
    The future’s not ours to see
    Que sera, sera…

    Listen to the lovely Doris Day!

  25. @NoseytheDuke

    A Known Unknown, and additional unknown When, should be considered a Black Swan, lest we come up with the term of “Grey Swan”.
    Let us ask Nicolas (Taleb). The originator of a different look at risk-assessment. Credit where it belongs. He once in a while makes public statements.

  26. sarz says:

    Prior to Europeans arriving in Australia nobody had ever seen black swans nor knew of their existence, hence the term.

    The first sighting of a black swan by somebody was followed by the blessed time of bounties on the scalps of ‘black fellas’. Those were the days, eh, NoseytheDuke?

  27. @BDS Always

    Covid-19 indeed promises magnanimous possibilities.

    Some morally “good” culling (selectively?) the global surplus populations.

    Some even better as to current elite interests, redress of the “markets”, buying time as to overheated a planet, trituration, and deflection of surplus populations.

    Makes one think, is there anything adjustable in a world where there are no long term plans?

  28. nymom says:

    I actually have another scenario to throw out there with this Corona virus…

    China, where it originated, is now through the worse of it and flu season is winding down in the west.

    The collapse of Wall Street was engineered by the Democrats and their friends in the media by exaggerating the extent of Corona in the US…it was done to try to destroy the US economy and punish the boomers who voted for Trump as most of them are living off savings and pensions…

    I am not even sure that the Democrats realized how much damage they would cause; but, now they have to keep ‘playing the game’ by declaring emergencies all over the place where none exists. Trump has to respond accordingly by calling news conferences, canceling flights from Europe, etc., because if he didn’t, it would be used as another campaign issue against him.

    Anyway, the time to call an emergency would have been back in February, if it was necessary to do so.

    Just for the record we have about 10,000 deaths (or more) a year from regular flu, most of them from seniors and people with weakened immune systems…

    Just my opinion, others will feel differently of course.

    • Replies: @bluedog
  29. Stock market is now nearing the point that was when Trump took over.
    It would be interesting to see how the Chinese stock market is doing.

    • Replies: @Jmaie
  30. @truthman

    You realize there are only so many hospital beds and staff in these evil white countries? There is no such thing as rapid training in healthcare. So the likelihood of people being denied healthcare, and not for just this bug, exponentially increases. But tedious things like infrastructure can never be allowed to burst your self esteem and virtue.

  31. Excuse my country bumpkin brain here. How exactly does a country dependent on making cheap junk benefit if their customer base either croaks or goes broke? I think we are all in the same boat, just different decks.

    All of this is brought to you by the insane globalist military industrial complex, and their very cooperating biolabs. For me the latter is the lesson I learned. Sanctions, wars, and tariffs are all bull feces. Can’t wait for my made in Russia space force components.

    • Agree: Digital Samizdat
    • Replies: @PetrOldSack
    , @antibeast
  32. “Moscow saw the perfect window of opportunity to strike, targeting the US shale industry.”

    Escobar seems to blame all the damage from the Saudi’s steep price decreases and increased production on Russia. What Russia did was decline MbS’s demand to decrease their oil production and when they refused MbS in a fit of stupidity cratered the oil market. I seem to remember that it was MbS who tried to target the US shale industry in 2014 by doing the same thing. He is unhinged and was forced to arrest some very senior princes, even one that is a CIA asset, to prevent a coup by the more sensible Saudi royals.

    Yes, Russia acknowledged that it would hurt US shale oil but no one cared when the U.S. tried to stop the Russian gas pipeline or the ridiculous U.S. idea to sell Europe expensive U.S. gas shipped over the instead of the cheaper dependable Russian gas.

    Expect MbS to have an accident or succumb to the Wuhan virus some time soon.

  33. @The Alarmist

    Maybe, and you are correct in some ways (the serfdom part anyway), but I truly believe that whenever the criminal psycho elites make their plans within plans within plans (with apologies to Dune and Frank Herbert), they always leave out the most important reason their plans never quite come to the fruition they expect–their complete psychopathy, which leads to their complete arrogance, which leads to their plans going awry at some point. Take their pandemic bonds which were supposed to mature on June or July 15 IFF the WHO has not declared a pandemic…but yesterday it declared a pandemic so the bonds will not mature and they will lose money on these bonds. So one segment of the elites got hosed. Other sectors of the elites will lose out in other ways. I know about the Georgia Guidestones and their population reduction plan. But if they reduce the population that much, then who slaves for them? Then who buys their products and who works their Amazon factories (since robots can only do so much, and do robots buy stuff?) And who do they rob? and since the elites aren’t all united anyway…There is only so much blood these monsters can drink after they supposedly kill us all off. And it isn’t just 600 years, but thousands (call it what you will..serfdom, slavery, indentured, whatever)–and have they completely done it yet? No, because they can’t though they will keep on trying. Because they believe Satan is in control…but God is in control.

  34. @Alfa158

    Once we stop being rich the stupidity will be ramped way back.

    This has never been the case, my friend.

    Demographic invasions from shithole countries have no reason to cease. Even a Depression-Era America is still an improvement over Goatistan or Mestizoland.

    Evil rarely fades away on its own. Noseberg’s howling for open borders hasn’t slowed one bit.

  35. @Sean

    Russia is a very different kettle of fish, inasmuch they are nothing to Wall St., and are fighting in Ukraine.

    Revenge is a dish best served cold.

    Russia is a very different kettle of fish, inasmuch they are nothing to Wall St., and are fighting in Ukraine.

    Hasn’t happened in 6+ years, Ukrops that is.

    American Fed has just cut interest rates half a percent so frackers (the gas one anyway) are in profit as long as they can get cheap capital.

    Unicorns and rainbows dancing in your head?

    • Replies: @Bill Jones
  36. @Sean

    An open attack on the US economy at a vulnerable time for Trump does suggest that Putin is not favouring Trump though.

    Revenge is a dish best served cold.

  37. Agent76 says:

    November 7, 2019 Spreading Democracy the American Way

    List of US-Installed Democracies, Worldwide, 1776-2019

    This is term used for the processes we are witnessing today golobally.

    The Hegelian Dialectic- Problem, reaction, solution

    The first step (thesis) is to create a problem. The second step (antithesis) is to generate opposition to the problem (fear, panic and hysteria). The third step (synthesis) is to offer the solution to the problem created by step one: A change which would have been impossible to impose upon the people without the proper psychological conditioning achieved in stages one and two.

  38. Meena says:

    Dead cat is not bouncing even after payroll tax cuts , even after 1 trillion ‘s injection ( promised ) even after repo injection .

  39. It’s all a farce and oriented towards producing the Khazarian fifth-column’s long sought war with Iran. The Khazarians and their grift-machine will not allow the plundered American economy to collapse into the hole they’ve dug for it until after they’ve kicked off their Iran war.

  40. @Old and Grumpy

    The riches of our Western elites have a flaw, they are built of cardboard, in an earth-quake zone, now comes the rain. Hard assets, contrary to “Financial” assets, need a secure environment that includes air, water, and a functional human qualitative work-force. Do not look up to the clouds, but cut these junkers at the knees! Billionaire is an insult to a working system, it is an anomaly, a blob of cancer! It is a sign of corrupt book-keeping, nothing to the public service.

    • Agree: Agent76, Crazy Horse
  41. uradel666 says:

    Waiting for the Internet crashing down

  42. Fred777 says:

    Globalism bites us in the ass again.

    • Agree: Agent76
  43. Jmaie says:

    Trade continues but at a very reduced pace. Container volumes China to Los Angeles (33% of all US bound cargo) is down 30% from pre-virus / pre- lunar-new-year peaks. Seattle numbers are similar. Port of Los Angeles is expecting 25% less ships than normal calling between now and end of April.

    China is now the go-to producer of widgets made for US manufacturing firms (made in America!). They are up to (maybe) 70% of industrial capacity, will be months before full recovery there and add a couple months more for the results to show up here. So figure July at the earliest before our supply chain is back to normal. In the meantime, local layoffs will depress economic activity greatly.

    (US service businesses are hurting badly. Tom Douglas has announced six week closures of all 8 of his Seattle restaurants. Traffic is down 80% and he can’t afford to keep the doors open. Most unfortunate for all his employees / suppliers/etc.)

    Broad downturn will snowball to the point where China may not NEED full industrial capacity. If that happens, bend over and start smooching…

    Meanwhile, the fed has nothing but blanks in its arsenal. Rate cuts won’t help with a supply shock.

    Earlier this week Goldman Sachs posited 2450 for the S&P 500 by mid year, a 28% drop from recent highs. LOL, we’re only 30 points above that now and no signs of the selloff slowing. The NJ Fed announcing a trillion(!) dollar liquidity injection mid day today and that moved the index higher 4% in 30 minutes, only to be crushed back to oblivion.

    If the S&P 500 breaks below 2,200 it will continue to pre-housing-crisis levels. Baron Rothschild was correct, the best time to buy stocks is when there’s blood running in the streets.


    • Replies: @Jmaie
  44. Jmaie says:

    Hong Kong (Hang Seng) index down 3.66% yesterday. SSE composite (Shanghai) down *only* 1.52%.

    • Replies: @Zarathustra
  45. Jmaie says:

    After hours trading shows another 2% drop for tomorrow. If it holds, GS’ mid year price target will have arrived several months early.

  46. FvS says:

    If it gets bad in Mexico and Central America, the U.S. border could potentially be overrun. I doubt the powers at be have the will to stop them. They may even welcome it.

  47. @Jmaie

    NYSE went down about one quarter!
    All those stocks changed to cash. Investors do not keep cash in their kitchen cupboards.
    I am only wandering where all those trillions of dollars went.

    • Replies: @Bill Jones
    , @Alfred
  48. @bike-anarkist

    Ol Sean has a very on-again off-again relationship with reality.The Ons are becoming increasingly rare.

    • Agree: NoseytheDuke
  49. @Zarathustra

    They went nowhere. They never existed. It just stopped being possible to claim that they did.
    If I have ten chickens and sell you one for ten dollars, my chicken flock is worth \$90.
    If I sell the next one for two dollars my chicken flock is worth \$16.

    Where did the money go?

    • Replies: @Ber
    , @HallParvey
  50. Meena says:

    1 trillions promised , already few billions are going as repo by Fed every month or week .
    Still this freaking economy can’t stop diving south.
    Still they ask for more openly .

    Nothing for the sheeple .

  51. getaclue says:
    @The Alarmist

    Agree totally! This is the big roll out “event” of the NWO finally– the gloves are fully off– the ChiComs are a big part of the NWO (as are many in the USA Government “Bushies” etc…) and letting this out allowed them to clean out their dissidents while slamming the World’s Economies leading to the chaos wanted to bring in the long planned One World Government– lots of traitors/Commies/ “insider” agents in the USA in the Mainslime Media, Academia, and “Government” to help them do it by pushing widespread panic– they will be pushing forward the mandatory “vaccine”poison next (perhaps by those wonderful people who brought you 911– I read they may bring it forth to “help” us…) and putting a chip in everyone with it–Churches closed down Globohomo in complete control….

  52. bluedog says:

    Lol your wrong of course everyone knows ITS RUSSIA’S FAULT.!!!

  53. Biff says:

    America, where the State benefits from every tragedy, you can bet this will be played out for all it’s worth…..

  54. Tomas says:

    Not to rely on China to make every fucking thing? Well, that’s not up to the mindless slave consumers of the West. Just ask your corporate slave masters.

  55. Miro23 says:

    The CIA is fuming: Nayef was and remains Langley’s top asset. When Saudi regime spin denounced “Americans” as partners in a possible coup against MBS, that word needed to be read as “CIA.” It’s just a matter of time before the US Deep State, in conjunction with disgruntled National Guard elements, comes for MBS’s head – even as he articulates taking over total power before the G-20 in Riyadh next November.

    This is an interesting one. The Zio-Glob can’t have MBS running around making his own policy and who’s side is Kushner on anyway?

  56. @truthman

    You may laugh but in reality you have raised the fundamental question. Countries will eventually get over economic crashes and lethal pandemics but they won’t get over transformed demographics. There’s no going back – literally – once an ‘invasive’ population reaches critical mass. Import the third world. become the third world.

    • Agree: NoseytheDuke
  57. Barr says:

    Where did Italy go ? China sent it 40 tonnage of stuff to physically address the corona virus at home in hospital an d in the community . This doesn’t include medication .That is separate .

    Meanwhile spinning about Fed’s role as financially beneficial is polluting the Brookings institute

    • Replies: @Smith
  58. Smith says:

    Italy needs it now because its government didn’t take the disease seriously, like any sane-rational government.

    In fact, Italy government might do this so they can shill for more China integration.

    • Replies: @Barr
  59. antibeast says:
    @Old and Grumpy

    Excuse my country bumpkin brain here. How exactly does a country dependent on making cheap junk benefit if their customer base either croaks or goes broke? I think we are all in the same boat, just different decks.

    That’s a myth. Most of China’s exports to the USA consists of tech products such as smartphones, PCs, TVs, etc., followed by industrial commodities such as electric motors, LCD panels, etc. which accounts for 2% of its GDP. The cheap junk that you find in Walmart are increasingly sourced from low-income developing countries such as Vietnam, Indonesia, Bangladesh, India, etc. because China is already too expensive for US MNCs.

    After the GFC in 2008, Chinese manufacturers had to turn inward to serve the domestic market which is now driving the economic growth of its technology and services industries such as in e-commerce, Mobile Internet and Fintech industries.

    • Replies: @Zarathustra
  60. What happened to the days when jounalists wrote without all the hyperbole? No one seems to be able to write straightforward anymore. The commenters are more enjoyable to read that the professionals.

  61. Covid-19 is Gematria for Kobe as in the so-called dead basketball player, who had a Corona(crown) tattooed to his right bicep. Let’s all take a powder while, we watch in real-time, the Freemasons unroll their latest package of nonsense. People need to wake-up from the DEEP sleep they’ve become accustomed to getting as the World literally rips itself apart through magic-tricks performed daily on their black-mirrors.

    Viruses are NOT alive and can NOT pass from one human being to another, unless it’s injected into the system. Bacteria is NOT a Virus! Bacteria can be traded between people or left for people to be picked up. CGI and mumbo-jumbo are used to fool the sleeping majority, while the truth-teller shouts in the wilderness, I recall a Biblical story about a man telling of salvation, shouting in the wilderness while the powers & principalities ignored his prophecy.

    Just as Christ said, “Do NOT be afraid” so I believe and fear nothing, but God.

  62. @antibeast

    You do not understand economy too much.
    Even if some products are stamped made in USA, Most of the parts inside are made in China, and only assembled in USA. (including cars.)

    • Replies: @antibeast
  63. Barr says:

    May be Italy should have spoken to you to take it seriously . May be Trump should listened to you little earlier.
    Do you have any more excuses?

    The shitty US government and its media blame China for suppressing for hiding and for mass quarantine . Same western government has been suppressing ,has been arm twisting CDC and private partitioners , has been threatening labs and hospitals . Both parties have been using the entire saga to suit election prospects and Wall Street . People even believe the seriousness of the infection on the basis of the political affiliations . How stupid a country has to be to pivot to more stupidity digging the holes they are trying climb out ? China has a lot to teach this country where public safety is ignored and private safety is elevated to the level of medieval papal infallibility

    • Replies: @Smith
  64. antibeast says:

    You do not understand economy too much. Even if some products are stamped made in USA, Most of the parts inside are made in China, and only assembled in USA. (including cars.)

    You misunderstood my last reply to the previous poster who claimed that China’s economy is somehow dependent upon exports of cheap US consumer goods. Twenty years ago, US MNCs decided to outsource the manufacturing of US consumer goods to China upon its accession to the WTO. As a result, China did turn into the largest source of those cheap consumer goods flooding into the USA with Walmart turning into the single biggest importer of US goods custom Made-in-China. But that changed after the GFC in 2008 which saw US demand collapse. That forced Chinese manufacturers to downsize their operations and turn inward to serve the Chinese domestic market. Since then, e-commerce has taken off like a rocket with Alibaba’s GMV recording exponential growth in China. And as labor costs grew, US MNCs moved out and went somewhere else. Nike for example used to produce 90% of its shoes in China but has since moved 70% of its shoe production to Vietnam and Indonesia with the remaining 30% serving the China market which is still declining as local brands chip away at Nike’s market share in China.

    The top exports of China to the USA are no longer consumer goods but hi-tech products like smartphones, PCs and LED TVs. But even the assembly of those those hi-tech products are being relocated to countries like Mexico to avoid US import tariffs with parts and components shipped from the USA and East Asia.

    But those US consumer goods and high-tech products are not “Chinese goods” because the legal title to those goods belongs to US MNCs which outsourced their manufacturing to China. Apple’s iPhone for example is not “Chinese goods” but a US product. The only export category that is or should be considered “Chinese goods” are industrial commodities such as heavy-rare earth permanent magnets in which China holds a 95% market share. And those exotic commodities are not exactly “cheap junk” because they go into Tomahawk cruise missiles, F-35 jet fighters and Tesla electric vehicles. How big a share are those exports in China’s GDP? Less than one percent.

    • Replies: @Zarathustra
    , @Philip Owen
  65. Alfred says:

    A case in point is Ukraine occupied and annexed by Russia

    Give us a break! If Russia has occupied Ukraine, how come so many American politicians get money from Kiev?

    How come the president and prime minister of Ukraine are Jewish? In a country that is less than 1% Jewish

    Ukrainian foreign influence operation bankrolled by secret donors in coordinated effort

    • Replies: @uradel666
  66. Alfred says:

    I lived for years in Altona, near Melbourne. At some times of the year, there were hundreds of black swans near the seashore. They were feeding on a special seaweed I believe. They are quite different from Siberian swans. Much more fragile.

  67. Alfred says:

    I am only wandering where all those trillions of dollars went

    Before too long, those who are retiring will be asking a similar question as regards their pension and social security promises. They are Ponzi schemes and everyone knows it.

  68. @antibeast

    I have no reason to disagree with you. But the flow of the funds is the final indicator.
    US has yearly trade deficit with China which varies from 350 billion to half a trillion.
    This outflow of funds are eating away at the value of the dollar.
    It does not make a big difference that some funds are moving to some other far east country.
    It is still a loss for US.

    • Replies: @antibeast
  69. antibeast says:

    US MNCs just shift production from higher cost to lower cost countries, as was the case with Nike, or evade import tariffs imposed by Trump, as was the case with GoPro which moved their production from China to Mexico which benefits from tariff-free access to the USA, courtesy of USMCA. So it’s just a Capitalist game of profit-seeking by cutting costs, wherever they may be.

  70. Smith says:

    It is not an excuse, both Italy and the US fuck up.

    As soon as North Korea and Russia close up, you can already see it’s not a joke. Now China is going to make a buckload of money from dumb and naive westerners.

  71. uradel666 says:

    It is no sweat for American Politicians to provide a convenient way of cashing out of Russia in either case.

    I think you missed the main point of my story. Contemporary Wars go along in one direction with Economics but adhere to the schedule set out by Economics. If you stage military operations which are economically not justified you are sanctioned all the way down. Russia is very poor country. Any attempt for Russia to get out of red using Military Force doomed to fail. Russia is condemned to be provoker once and for all.

  72. @Bill Jones

    Beautiful. Now, why would you trade a chicken to him for a piece of paper? A loaf of bread, perhaps. But the paper only if it was a promise to trade, in the future, for something of equal or greater value. And a promise supported by the full faith and credit of the powers that be.

    Now, just suppose there was someone out there printing tons of paper. Exactly like the one you have. What would happen to the value of the one you have.

    See the problem. You really can’t trust your elected government not to inflate it’s own currency.

    There was a movie, Harry Never Holds, in which the pickpocket would never hold the stolen item any longer than necessary. Thusly avoiding arrest. This is the only acceptable tactic to have when taking paper.

  73. @antibeast

    And to make it even more complicated, Apple had the iPhone designed in the UK as revealed in a recent court case when the consulting firm involved sold its video chip arm to a Chinese firm.

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