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At present, there is no vaccine for the coronavirus. That means that one of the two paths to immunity is blocked. The other path is “herd immunity,” in which a critical mass of infection occurs in lower-risk populations that ultimately thwarts transmission.

Herd immunity is the only path that is currently available. Let that sink in for a minute. The only way our species can effectively resist the infection is through the development of specific antibodies or sensitized white blood cells. In other words, the only way we can lick this thing is by the majority of the population getting the infection and thereby developing immunity to future outbreaks.

That being the case, one would assume that the government’s policy would try to achieve herd immunity in the least painful way possible. (Young, low-risk people should go back to work if they so choose.) But that is not the government’s policy, in fact, the government’s policy is the exact opposite. US policy encourages people to remain at home and self quarantine until the government decides to lift the lockdown and allow some people to return to work. This policy assumes that the infection will have vanished by then, which of course, is extremely unlikely. The more probable outcome is that– when people return to work– there will be another surge in cases and another spike in deaths. We will have shifted the curve to a future date without having flattened it. We will have inflicted catastrophic damage on the economy and gained nothing. This is an idiotic policy that goes nowhere.

After 6 weeks of this nonsense, many people are getting fed-up and demanding that the lockdowns be ended. In response to the public outcry, many governors are planning to restart their economies and lift the restrictions. What this means, is that, after wasting a month and half on a failed strategy, many states are ready to follow in Sweden’s footsteps with one critical difference, they’re not going to have a team of crack epidemiologists carefully monitoring their social interactions to see if a wave of new Covid cases is going to overwhelm the health care system. That means that things could get out of hand fast, and I expect they will. As we said in last week’s column, the lockdowns must be lifted gradually, that is crucial.

“You have to step down the ladder one rung at a time”, says Senior Swedish epidemiologist and former Chief Scientist of the European Center for Disease Prevention and Control, Johan Giesecke. In other words, slowly ease up on the restrictions and gradually allow people to get back to work. That is the best way forward.

There is also the question of whether herd immunity will be sufficient to fight off reinfection. This question was posed to Giesecke in a recent interview in which he was asked: “Why are you gambling that herd immunity will protect your people from re-infection?”

Giesecke answered, “There has not been a single proven case of anyone getting a second infection from the virus….so far there have been no reinfections….If you have it once you don’t get it again….There will be herd immunity, that’s clear, and it will last over the period of this outbreak.”

The interviewer then asked Giesecke why he was so certain that surviving the infection would produce herd immunity?

Because it’s a coronavirus,” Giesecke said, “and we know about 6 other coronaviruses, so why would this one be special? ….At present, 30% of the population of Stockholm is immune or has already had the infection. We do not have herd immunity today, but to go from 30% to 50% will only take weeks.“

Giesecke candidly admits that he cannot be absolutely certain that infection survivors are immune, but he strongly believes that they are. (Please, excuse my choppy transcription o f the taped interview.)

Giesecke again: “When you (in the US and elsewhere) ease the lockdowns you will have more deaths…We will not have as many deaths because we will have herd immunity by the time the other countries start to lift their lockdown which means the virus won’t spread much more in Sweden, whereas you will have a higher number of cases and deaths.”

If Giesecke is right, then Sweden is on the path to “normal” while the US is still chasing its tail, still following a policy that is clearly counterproductive, and still listening to self-appointed pontiffs like Bill Gates who obviously want to drag this thing out forever so he can implement his vaccination-surveillance panopticon. This needs to change. The safety and well-being of the American people should take precedence over the Hodge-podge of competing interests and conflicting agendas that have shaped the current policy. Now take a look at excerpt from an article at the National Review:

“Spring is in the air, and it is increasingly found in the confident step of the people of Sweden. With a death rate significantly lower than that of France, Spain, the U.K., Belgium, Italy, and other European Union countries, Swedes can enjoy the spring without panic or fears of reigniting a new epidemic as they go about their day in a largely normal fashion.

Dr. Mike Ryan, the executive director of the World Health Organization’s Emergencies Program, says: “I think if we are to reach a new normal, I think in many ways Sweden represents a future model — if we wish to get back to a society in which we don’t have lockdowns.”

The Swedish ambassador to the U.S., Karin Ulrika Olofsdotter, says: “We could reach herd immunity in the capital” of Stockholm as early as sometime in May. That would dramatically limit spread of the virus.

…Dr. Anders Tegnell, the chief epidemiologist of Sweden… heroically bucked the conventional wisdom of every other nation and carefully examined the insubstantial evidence that social-isolation controls would help reduce COVID-19 deaths over the full course of the virus.

As Tegnell told NPR in early April: “I’m not sure that there is a scientific consensus on, really, about anything when it comes to this new coronavirus, basically because we don’t have much evidence for any kind of measures we are taking.”….”To me it looks like a lot of the exit strategies that are being discussed look very much like what Sweden is already doing,” he told Canada’s Globe & Mail….

Sweden has about 2,200 reported COVID-19 cases per million population. This is lower than the number in the U.S. (3,053 per million), the U.K., France, Spain, Italy, and also lower than in many other EU countries. It’s slightly above the number in Germany, which has been hailed for its approach to the virus….

Sweden has 265 reported COVID-19 deaths per million population. That is somewhat higher than in the U.S. (204 per million) but lower than the number in many other EU countries….on an age-adjusted basis, Sweden has done significantly better than the U.S. in terms of both cases per million and deaths per million — and with no lockdowns….

Unlike its Nordic neighbors and everywhere else…Sweden doesn’t have to worry about when and how to end social isolation. They don’t have to decide who to keep locked down and who to let out. They don’t have to get into civil-liberty arguments over involuntary restrictions or whether to fine people for not wearing masks and gloves….

Now many countries and U.S. states are beginning to follow Sweden’s lead. But California and other states continue to pile up isolation-induced health costs and blow gigantic holes in their budgets with lockdowns that, nationwide, have generated more than 30 million newly unemployed.” (“Sweden Bucked Conventional Wisdom, and Other Countries Are Following“, National Review)

This is an excellent article that’s worth reading in full. And what the article shows, is that Sweden is the model. They put the right people in the right positions to do the research, read the data and make right decisions on critical issues of public health. Then they implemented the right policy which is going to make their social and economic transition much easier.

Sweden is on the path to recovery while the United States is still trying to get out of the hole it dug for itself.

 
• Category: Economics • Tags: Coronavirus, Culture, Health care, Sweden 
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  1. Sweden IS the model, for sure.

    It’s nearly impossible to get the low IQ crew to understand that the virus is going to spread, either slowly (stupid lockdown with wrecked economy) or more naturally (Swedish model using smart precautions)

    Sweden’s strategy is long term sustainable; our lockdown is NOT sustainable long term.

    When we open up the virus will spread the same way it was going to anyway, but our economy is destroyed and our populace terrified and hysterical.

    At the same time Sweden is close to herd immunity.

    All we did was prolong the epidemic.

    And the moron screeches, “But Sweden has more deaths per million!”

    Well no shit dumbass. When the western nations open up they will catch up and surpass Sweden’s death rate, while Sweden will normalize. Nature has its’ own wisdom that far surpasses our “experts.”

  2. Hail says: • Website

    Thank you, Mike Whitney.

    We of the anti-Panic side realized Sweden was right all along, and wanted the US to adopt the Swedish approach all along, rather than allow people to demagogue on “Viruses! Death!! Oh my God, stop the deaths the media is telling me about. Total shutdown NOW! Save Lives!”

    By late April, even in terms of observed-data it was already a knockout victory for the Swedish “Stay Open, Don’t Panic, Don’t Demagogue” model.

    Readers interested in Sweden may be interested in this: Against the Corona Panic, Pt. VII: Sweden’s vindication is complete; Graphing the actual coronavirus epidemic in Sweden against the pro-Panic side’s wild projections (April 29). The wacko ‘doom’ models that were so influential (for some reason) called for hundreds of thousands of dead; the reality was a not-unusual peak-flu event that passed easily through the population and, if not subject to a media hysteria, might deserve a footnote in the history books, nothing more.

    The sustained decline in coronavirus-positive deaths in Sweden and the achievement of herd immunity (about now in Stockholm County and in coming weeks everywhere else) means the epidemic in Sweden is over; all we need wait on now is the bell curve to gracefully complete itself and return to zero over the course of May, maybe tailing into June to a degree but no longer with a significant number of deaths per day by then. The numbers are pointing a mid-May <25 deaths/day that are coronavirus-positive (of 250 normal/expected deaths per day in Sweden; this includes deaths of other causes positive forthe virus at death).

    See here for the latest graphs as of this writing, which you will notice are following a bell curve. (On past experience, due to the weekend reporting lag, we can expect a reasonably complete picture through about May 4 by Friday May 8.)

  3. Hail says: • Website

    [O]ne would assume that the government’s policy would try to achieve herd immunity in the least painful way possible. (Young, low-risk people should go back to work if they so choose.)

    But that is not the government’s policy, in fact, the government’s policy is the exact opposite

    Sweden is on the path to “normal” while the US is still chasing its tail, still following a policy that is clearly counterproductive, and still listening to self-appointed pontiffs like Bill Gates who obviously want to drag this thing out forever

    The response has been so bizarre that at times I think the only comparison is to a religious cult which won mass numbers of converts and seized control of the state. A lot of even smart, well-meaning people caved in and joined the cult.

    It’s about like this:

    Everybody’s joining; the cult’s apocalypse predictions must be right!

    I also said Corona-Response leaders, politicians and others, were demagogues (comment immediately above), demagoguing hard on this since mid-March, to their discredit and frankly shame. “Facts-Last, Feed-the-Panic-First” Corona-Demogogues should be ashamed of themselves. This is not the Western tradition.

  4. Ah, sheeit, I had intended to go for a week without reading here, or at least not commenting. This was due to Mr. Unz’s moronic reply to me, in which everyone who doesn’t believe every one of his conspiracy theories is a ranting rightwinger*. This got me thinking that I WAS wasting too much of my time on this site. (I also wanted to test how much my linking here matters.)

    That said, this site is addictive, and I broke down and read a few things. Thank you for this and your previous article regarding Sweden and the Kung Flu, Mr. Whitney! Mr. Hail, in the comments herein, has been all over this too – I suggest you look through his posts, as he’s linked to.

    I have been on the anti-panic side since I first heard of this thing. It’s not that I am some expert in epidemiology. It’s that I have some PERSPECTIVE!. I have a post in my head reading to come out on Peak Stupidity later today to explain what I mean in detail. Some of us have decent, albeit slightly vague, memories of past viruses breaking out of the Orient and causing a spike in deaths. Swine Flu, H1N1, Bird Flu, etc, etc, were written about widely, but there was no Infotainment Panic-Fest by Big-Media and Government to make it seem like we were in a live version of The Andromeda Strain, as is the case this time.

    Leaving aside the many political aspects for now, the Americans on the pro-panic side have simply let the 24/7 Infotainment from the idiot plates and their ever-present small screens override their common sense and PERSPECTIVE. That’s the big difference I see. One sorry part of this is, even as they deride the Lyin’ Press narrative daily, some of the pundits here fell for this Panic-Fest. I don’t expect apologies from most of them.**

    .

    * BTW, I don’t mind being a rightwinger, but only in the sense of a guy who supported early Ronald Reagan, would have voted for Barry AuH20 if I were able, and have supported Ron Paul for years. I think Mr. Unz’s definition is a Neocon, member of GOPe, or anyone who doesn’t believe every word out of his deranged fingertips.

    ** Now, Steve Sailer is a stand-up guy. If he does eventually realize how much he’s been mis-led, if it’s not an apology, at least we’ll get an “I was wrong” out of him.

    • Replies: @Dumbo
  5. It’s good to hear it’s not like common cold or flu where people can catch it every year, that once we’ve caught it we’ll be immune to it.

    But don’t you mean flock immunity rather than herd immunity? Immunity of the flocks of sheeple?

    • Replies: @showmethereal
  6. Dumbo says:

    I don’t really believe in this “herd immunity” thing. Hell I am not even sure I believe in this virus. We’ve been bombarded with so much contradictory information.

    Swedes seem kind of crazy and deluded, for instance see their “male feminist clubs”:

    https://www.bbc.com/worklife/article/20200429-swedens-male-only-supper-clubsfor-feminists

    But in this case, they seem to have taken the slightly more adult and free approach, a curious thing, in a society that usually prefers the nanny state. It’s as if roles were reversed, and the U.S. acted more like Sweden, and the Sweden more like the U.S.

  7. Dumbo says:
    @Achmed E. Newman

    Steve Sailer seems to be a bit of a germaphobe (afraid of germs, not germans), so I can understand his approach.

    Also, there’s another thing, the U.S. is a continental-size country with 300 million people and lots of “diversity”, so things that work in Sweden usually don’t work anywhere else (people keep talking about the “Swedish model” in this or that but it usually cannot be imported, although I would like a Swedish model in my bed, but that’s another story.)

    I think the correct approach would be to control movement more in some areas (ie.e NYC) and let people freer in other places where there have been very few cases and population density is low.

    • Disagree: Hail
  8. @Dumbo

    … and lots of “diversity”, so things that work in Sweden usually don’t work anywhere else …

    Just as with education, Dumbo, for example, white Americans hold their own wrt Euros on all kinds of measurements thereof. When you measure the huge diversity contingent together with the core Americans, you get bad numbers.

    As I wrote in a comment (somewhere, I dunno!), if any of the talking TV heads had the guts to really separate out the differences in the lifestyles and attitudes of the core Americans vs. the various other groups, he would probably reassure the former that “yeah, if you’re not pretty old, and with some serious other health issues, this is really a non-issue for you – just a bad flu year”*. It’s as with the shootings in the inner cites of America. If innocent people weren’t involved sometimes and white people specifically targeted other times, it’d be a non-issue for me.

    .

    * Of course, we’d never hear from the guy again.

  9. What utter nonsense.

    What Dr. Tengell pointed out early is key —– it seems to follow the pattern of a winter illnesses that routinely crop up in winter periods.

    But this heard immunity isn’t really being discussed honestly.

    I agree, one cannot know when the virus peaks unless it reaches most or all of the population and then wanes, never spiking past the peak. Herd infection can tell s that.

    But whether there will be some sufficient numbers of the population that survive the infect of the whole that will serve as the immune developing future — unknown. It could very well be that the herd gets infected and less than 1/3 of the population survives or it could be that the herd gets infected and no one dies and no develops an immunity.

    An it could that people are immune for reasons unrelated to the actual virus itself.

    ————————————

    “Ah, sheeit, I had intended to go for a week without reading here, or at least not commenting.”

    I was absent to long, it felt alien to comment.

  10. anon[111] • Disclaimer says:
    @Robert Dolan

    It’s nearly impossible to get the low IQ crew to understand that the virus is going to spread, either slowly (stupid lockdown with wrecked economy) or more naturally (Swedish model using smart precautions)

    Is that what you flu truthers are latching on to now that every other thing you’ve promoted has been debunked? Is that why New Zealand, Taiwan, and South Korea did lockdowns (along with testing and contact tracing) and have now defeated the virus, economies intact? Their response > Sweden’s response. So, no. Sweden IS NOT the model. Those countries are the models. Truthers are desperate to find ANY excuse they can to avoid responsibility — responsibility for the unnecessary deaths they’ve caused and responsibility for their incompetent handling of the situation (along with the obvious debunking of your small government philosophy this crisis has provided). The number of false claims and outright lies you’ve made to that end can’t be explained any other way.

    Fist it was the flu. Then it was magic medicines like hydroxychlroquine. Next it was antibody studies you didn’t understand. Then it was the models, and black helicopter conspiracies, yada yada yada.

    You truthers don’t even know what you’re talking about with Sweden anyway:

    All is Not What it Seems in Sweden

    Contrary to impressions created in American media, Sweden’s approach to handling the pandemic has not been “relaxed,” but essentially the same as in other Western countries.

    https://www.theamericanconservative.com/articles/all-is-not-what-it-seems-in-sweden/

    One of the guys who upvoted your post was telling people just a few weeks ago that this was no worse than the seasonal flu. Lol. Nope. Excuses, excuses. Fire up those grills gentlemen. Burgers don’t just cook themselves. The virus is just gonna spread anyway … oh, wait. Competent countries that did lockdowns beat it:

    New Zealand health official claims ‘elimination’ of coronavirus as new cases hit single digits

    https://www.usatoday.com/story/news/world/2020/04/28/coronavirus-new-zealand-health-official-claims-elimination-virus/3038321001/

    Right, right. Sweden is the model. Or maybe it isn’t. It didn’t have to be this way.

  11. @Robert Dolan

    I was an inch away from the [AGREE] button, Mr. Dolan, but I would differ slightly from your last paragraph. I think there are plenty of people in America, from what I’ve seen AND been a part of, that are not having very much of this LOCKDOWN crap. This herd immunity may be close in some parts of America too.

  12. Dumbo says:

    Maybe we still don’t have enough information to judge. When compared to the other Nordic countries, Sweden didn’t do as well. But compared to the world in general, it did OK.

    Another point of comparison could be Brazil vs Argentina. I’ve heard that Argentina did a stricter lockdown and had only 260 deaths so far, while Brazil has not been very successful in containing its people and has 7300 deaths and growing, 7th with more deaths in the world. Of course, Brazil’s population is four times that of Argentina, but the number of cases and deaths is much more than four times.

    Still, I do think that in general there was too much hysteria and wrong policies. Asian countries managed it much better in general. Maybe Japan and South Korea ought to be the model more than Sweden.

  13. @Robert Dolan

    the virus is going to spread, either slowly (stupid lockdown with wrecked economy) or more naturally (Swedish model using smart precautions)

    That’s not necessarily the case. A host of nations have quashed the virus in their home countries. South Korea, Taiwan, Australia, New Zealand are a few examples. Greece is up next. Those countries will all either reopen soon or have already reopened their domestic economies; antibody tests could be used to ensure safe international travel of increasing numbers of people, including tourism. I honestly don’t see how – given those examples – anyone can credibly claim Sweden is an example to follow. They clearly aren’t. Stating otherwise seems to be an example of ideological intransigence (or ignorance).

    With widespread testing and contract tracing (along with mask wearing and continued precautionary social distancing + some partial or staggered lockdowns), this can be done safely until 1) a vaccine is developed against the most lethal variant 2) the virus spreads globally and burns itself out, either eliminating it altogether or leaving behind a far less lethal variant. Either scenario may take as little as a year under the best case scenario. There is some evidence the latter may be occurring already:

    *SARS-CoV-2 or the novel coronavirus has mutated into two strains.

    *Aggressive quarantine measures are keeping the aggressive strain of the virus in check.

    *People who recover from the mild strain of the virus will have immunity against SARS-CoV-2

    https://www.ccn.com/heres-why-coronavirus-deaths-will-dramatically-decrease-over-time/

    Our results suggest that the development of new variations in functional sites in the receptor-binding domain (RBD) of the spike seen in SARS-CoV-2 and viruses from pangolin SARSr-CoVs are likely caused by mutations and natural selection besides recombination. Population genetic analyses of 103 SARS-CoV-2 genomes indicated that these viruses evolved into two major types (designated L and S), that are well defined by two different SNPs that show nearly complete linkage across the viral strains sequenced to date. Although the L type (∼70%) is more prevalent than the S type (∼30%), the S type was found to be the ancestral version. Whereas the L type was more prevalent in the early stages of the outbreak in Wuhan, the frequency of the L type decreased after early January 2020. Human intervention may have placed more severe selective pressure on the L type, which might be more aggressive and spread more quickly. On the other hand, the S type, which is evolutionarily older and less aggressive, might have increased in relative frequency due to relatively weaker selective pressure. These findings strongly support an urgent need for further immediate, comprehensive studies that combine genomic data, epidemiological data, and chart records of the clinical symptoms of patients with coronavirus disease 2019 (COVID-19).

    https://academic.oup.com/nsr/advance-article/doi/10.1093/nsr/nwaa036/5775463

    Releasing social distancing checks could conceivably reverse this process. The opposite of this effect is partly why the Spanish Influenza of 1918 is believed by some to have mutated into a more lethal strain – it was allowed to incubate among soldiers held in close contact and spread to a naive population from there. Perhaps there is a small chance now that Covid-19 might mutate into a more lethal form and come back in the fall or winter. This would be unfortunate if it occurs. Perhaps after we would then decide to take less advice from cable news hosts, anarchist internet bloggers, and economists and maybe actually listen to the real experts.

    Example:

    At the same time Sweden is close to herd immunity.

    Reality:

    That’s probably not correct. Prevalence in Stockholm County was only 5 – 10% a little more than three weeks ago. The number of confirmed new cases probably doesn’t support Sweden reaching herd immunity as soon as you might think. As others have written, Sweden’s approach has been somewhat mischaracterized by right-wing partisans in the United States. Further, even after Sweden reaches the magical herd immunity threshold, there will still be some infections and deaths due to overshoot. Sweden also might not be able to open its outside borders very quickly because other countries will want to avoid importing infections from returning residents, so tourism dollars aren’t coming back very quickly.

    If the United States had quickly closed its borders to all inbound flights and coordinated a nation-wide testing and quarantine scheme, the scenarios listed above might have been a possibility. Unfortunately, our president was too concerned with his reelection and his followers were too naive and/or paranoid to follow sound advice. They embraced every bizarre conspiracy theory imaginable so they wouldn’t have to confront the reality of the situation. I couldn’t even begin to list them all here. A few others already have on this website. It’s shocking, really.

    What’s being proposed now is a bridge that we didn’t have to cross just yet. Unfortunately, the United States failed to contain the virus. The end result won’t be “just the flu.” In all likelihood, the ultimate American death toll will be many hundreds of thousands (a few million?). I have practically zero faith in the fig leaf mitigation steps the government says will be implemented, so I’m anticipating the virus will spread like wildfire over the next month.

    There will be political ramifications, too. The public won’t soon forget this. Whatever your opinion, the public supported mitigation efforts over doing nothing by significant margins. What they got were astroturfed protests with AR-15 wielding kooks, nightly propaganda from Fox News anchors telling them scientists couldn’t be trusted, an incompetent president who spent his days railing against his political enemies on Twitter and firing government oversight (reeks of corruption), and widespread government dysfunction. I’m sure Donald Trump will lose the coming election as a result, as long as Biden doesn’t have a meltdown. Those who pushed hardest for prematurely ending quarantine efforts will pay the price this November. The democrats will likely retain the House and may even pick up the Senate; even Lindsey Graham is facing an unexpectedly close race in South Carolina – a bell weather of things to come. Get ready. I hope the stock market was worth it.

    Oh, and it looks as if “nationalist” superstar Ramzpaul might owe someone a thousand bucks:

    ‘Where’s the beef?’: Wendy’s running out of burgers amid meat shortage

    https://nypost.com/2020/05/05/wheres-the-beef-wendys-runs-out-of-burgers-amid-meat-shortage/

  14. KA says:

    Keep it simple

    Different countries have responded differently but this responses have been based on race,geopgraphy ,health care access ,diversity or lack of it, age group, life style- obesity over crowding ,smoking, pollution, and co-morbid medic al conditions . What NY faced was unthinkable even with lockdown because of rapidity of the infection development of morbidity and mortality in quickened pace . This was more like a flood than a dribble of regular flu . Sweden model doesn’t apply to other country like USA or China or India or Sri Lanka or Italy . Might apply for Japan or S Korea or Taiwan or Maldive

    • Replies: @anon
    , @Achmed E. Newman
  15. anon[230] • Disclaimer says:
    @KA

    What NY faced was unthinkable even with lockdown because of rapidity of the infection development of morbidity and mortality in quickened pace .

    What NY faced was an idiotic Democrat Andrew Cuomo who forced nursing homes to take patients testing positive from the coronavirus. In addition, he banned single use plastic bags which are sanitary and instituted fees for paper bags. This encouraged people to bring their disease infested reusable bags which they never even wash to the grocery stores infecting everyone’s food.

    Which leads us to the single most predictive factor of how many deaths each state had from the corona virus.

    https://spectator.org/coronavirus-deaths-the-most-predictive-factor/

    • Replies: @KA
  16. utu says:

    “Herd immunity is the only path that is currently available. Let that sink in for a minute.” – More demagoguery form Mike Whitney. Think about S. Korea, Taiwan, Hong Kong and many other countries that managed to squash the epidemic being nowhere near to the herd immunity threshold.

    • Replies: @anon
  17. Rahan says:

    So on the institutional level, Sweden is still Sweden.

    The 10% third world brown population has not yet been “affirmatively promoted” enough to “deconstruct racist competency” across the board and is still mostly socially quaranteened on lower levels.

    Let’s see how things go 10-15 years from now. Will Sweden continue pretending to be multiculti while quietly not allowing wogs into important positions, or is what we’re seeing here now the final hurrah, before Sweden gradually subsides to the competency levels along the spectrum of England—>Slovakia—>Turkey—>Pakistan?

  18. anon[230] • Disclaimer says:
    @utu

    More demagoguery form Mike Whitney. Think about S. Korea, Taiwan, Hong Kong and many other countries that managed to squash the epidemic being nowhere near to the herd immunity threshold.

    If only Sweden had gone along with the doomsayers suicidal policies, then there would be no control to show the folly of the doomsayer ways. When the doomsayer prediction of massive deaths in Sweden never materialized, instead of admitting their suicidal policies are unnecessary, the doomsayers give us rationalizations and excuses instead.

    Saying Sweden really did follow our policies because Swedes are natural social distancers.

    Quoting incorrect death counts from newspapers and worldometer instead of using the official Swedish Ministry of Public Health statistics.

    Trying to claim that some small countries with statistically insignificant lower death rates somehow prove Sweden’s failure.

    By the very act of their rationalizations, the doomsayers prove that they are unscientific and akin to a religious cult.

    And now we find out that the doomsayer leaders don’t even believe in their completely discredited policies themselves.

    • Replies: @utu
  19. @KA

    What NY City faced is dealing with this flu is being an area of likely the highest concentration of Lyin’ Press media in the world! That’s not saying there wasn’t a high count of deaths FROM the COVID-one-niner compared to other locations. However, with the media having already swarmed the place long ago, the reports of those “swamped ICUs” and that could be made on the cheap on-location, whether it was really the case or not. It’s been a great place to form the narrative, inexpensively at that.

    The Lyin’ Press has had Americans scared shitless about the Kung Flu for 2 months now, and most nurses and many doctors have not been immunized to this hype via a little PERSPECTIVE. The result is that nurses have quit left and right, doctors won’t go see Kung Flu patients, and, of course, family members aren’t allowed in. It’d be the most depressing thing to be one of these patients, and if you’ve been there, you know time passes at 1/10 the speed.

    That applies to the whole country, but has been made worse for NYC due its being a Globalist-inspired Tower of Babel.

  20. utu says:
    @anon

    “Saying Sweden really did follow our policies because Swedes are natural social distancers.” – This is true. Sweden is practicing social distancing. Look at movie theaters attendance in Sweden which we are told does not practice social distancing vs. Norway and Denmark who shut down all movie theaters. (graph from Steve Sailer)

    In Sweden 20%-25% of population lives in single-person households comparing to 5% in Italy and 3% in Spain. 40% of seniors live in one person senior household.
    https://www.oecd.org/els/family/HM1-4-Living-arrangements-age-groups.pdf
    “In the case of Sweden, with about 660,000 second homes, a full 54.2% of the population own or have access to a second home through relatives and friends, making it a widespread phenomenon.”
    https://www.tandfonline.com/doi/pdf/10.1080/14616688.2017.1331260?needAccess=true

    Trying to claim that some small countries with statistically insignificant lower death rates somehow prove Sweden’s failure.. – Sweden is a small country. Comparing Sweden to very similar small countries like NOR, DEN and FIN makes a perfect sense. These countries are similar culturally and economically. And the difference is so significant that you do not need statistics to know it. Do you need statistics to read from the graph that Sweden death toll per capita is 7.5 higher than in other Scandinavia countries?

    Quoting incorrect death counts from newspapers and worldometer instead of using the official Swedish Ministry of Public Health statistics.. – Totals on worldometer site agree with Swedish official site, however time of entry may differ, so there is discrepancy in curves of new daily infections and deaths.

    By the very act of their rationalizations, the doomsayers prove that they are unscientific and akin to a religious cult.

    . – I gave you facts. There is no rationalization. People like you behave like ostrich preferring not to see the facts about Sweden. The facts are ugly. Do not idealize what in fact is a callous uncaring culture that allows to die people who did not have to die, whose life could have been saved. If Sweden followed the policy of Denmark, Norway and Finland then out of 2,854 who died so far in Sweden 2,470 would be still alive. Swedish heartless policy killed 2,470 people so far. Pretty good score for little country.

    • Agree: showmethereal
    • Replies: @anon
  21. Ganderson says:
    @Dumbo

    Mr. Dumbo, you are correct; the Swedes, with the exception of the residents of certain rather vibrant neighborhoods, are indeed a good looking people. I’m guessing us ugly ones all went to America in the 19th century !

    From what I read the outbreaks are worse in the vibrant quarters, although I’d think half that population would be protected because of the get-ups they wear.

    • Replies: @Achmed E. Newman
  22. anon[230] • Disclaimer says:
    @utu

    I see you are still deflecting from the central point which is the spectacular failure of the models. Please see Hail’s excellent plot below.

    This clearly shows that Neil Ferguson, Fauci and Brix have created a false panic and should be sued and criminally prosecuted accordingly. Note that prosecution of scientists for not expressing sufficient uncertainty about there predictions is far from unprecedented. Geologists in Italy were criminally prosecuted and convicted when they insisted there was going to be no earthquake in L’Aquila and ridiculed those who evacuated. Unfortunately, a higher court overturned their convictions.

    As to your other comments

    This is true. Sweden is practicing social distancing. Look at movie theaters attendance

    Why would anyone go to the box office when there are little or no box office only movie releases?

    Do you need statistics to read from the graph that Sweden death toll per capita is 7.5 higher than in other Scandinavia countries?

    First of all, in your own plot, Sweden is not 7.5 times higher than Denmark. If you think the death rate between Sweden and Denmark is statistically significant, then you need to explain why the death rate between Denmark and Finland doesn’t prove that it is just noise.

    Second of all, country population density per square mile is a meaningless statistic since Sweden’s land mass is larger than all the other Scandinavian countries.

    Like the Jehovah’s Witness rationalizations of all their prophetic failures, I am sure that you will come up with more rationalizations to justify your Covid-19 prophetic failures as well.

    • Replies: @obwandiyag
    , @utu
    , @Hail
  23. Mr Whitney is an alarmist boob. Our only hope is vaccination or herd immunity? Alas, we are all doomed. Nobody has been able to produce an effective vaccine against a corona virus after years of trying. “Herd Immunity” is just a theory propounded by the folks at big pharma who want to peddle their poisonous vaccines. Has he never heard of the spleen? That is one of the seats of the immune system along with the marrow and the intestines and the lymphatics. Nature gave you an immune system that destroys viruses by the million every single day. Were it not for that system, you would not live a year. If you cherish it and take care of it, it is unlikely you’ll catch the Shanghai Shivers and, if you do, it will likely be mild. For those of you who, like Mr. Whitney are trusting in the Big Government-Big Medicine-Big Pharma triumvirate to save them or anyone from the Dreaded Virus Roberts, it is the immune system, stupid!

    • Agree: Twodees Partain
    • Replies: @anon
  24. @anon

    A true genius. And here on this hinky website no less.

  25. Hey, you’ll like this. Doctors and nurses and health care providers are killing people in New York hospitals.

    https://www.globalresearch.ca/video-nyc-nurse-blows-whistle-about-coronavirus-hospital-patient-treatment-theyre-left-rot-die/5711854

    I love how they celebrate the worthless cowardly crooked scum who work in hospitals. Not all of them. But anybody who knows the US health system knows all about the incredible amount of incompetence and cruelty.

  26. @anon

    Shithead. People who reproduce a lot of graphs know that their arguments are bogus. That’s why they reproduce a lot of graphs.

  27. @anon

    Since I am the duly elected representative of all Fluthers everywhere, perhaps I should respond here. 😛

    Is that why New Zealand, Taiwan, and South Korea did lockdowns (along with testing and contact tracing) and have now defeated the virus, economies intact?

    That’s a non-falsifiable proposition. Think fast: What would have happened to New Zealand, etc., had they not gone full-lockdown? Would they be any worse off? About the same? Impossible to say. Would it still have rained yesterday had the Indian not done his rain-dance first? We’ll never know.

    Their response > Sweden’s response. So, no. Sweden IS NOT the model. Those countries are the models.

    Look: maybe New Zealand did do the right thing for New Zealand, and maybe Sweden did the right think for Sweden. Just like little snowflakes, no two countries are exactly alike, so there should be some latitude for individual countries to decide the matter for themselves. Unlike Fergueson & Fauci, we Fluthers are not promoting cookie-cutter, one-size-fits-all-solutions for every country; there can and should be some room for different approaches that take each country’s individual circumstances into account.

    In large federations like the US, that maxim should also apply to individual states. Total lockdowns might makes sense for New York and New Jersey, which have been especially hard hit, and where population density is unusually high, and there are lots of high-rises, mass-transit, etc. But such an approach would be totally inappropriate for states like Nebraska or Wyoming with extremely low population density.

    Can’t we all just get along? 😉

  28. anon[230] • Disclaimer says:

    That’s a non-falsifiable proposition.

    Correct, otherwise known as religion.

    Think fast: What would have happened to New Zealand, etc., had they not gone full-lockdown? Would they be any worse off? About the same? Impossible to say. Would it still have rained yesterday had the Indian not done his rain-dance first? We’ll never know.

    Exactly. This is why there was so much pressure put on the UK and Sweden to implement lockdowns so there would be no possibility of control comparisons. The UK succumbed to the pressure while Sweden held fast.

    Total lockdowns might makes sense for New York and New Jersey, which have been especially hard hit, and where population density is unusually high, and there are lots of high-rises, mass-transit, etc. But such an approach would be totally inappropriate for states like Nebraska or Wyoming with extremely low population density.

    No It does not – certainly not on a statewide level. For example, most of the population of New York resides in the NYC area which is a very small land mass in comparison to the rest of the state. Most of the rest of the state has extremely low population density. Anyone advocating for country or even state wide lockdowns doesn’t understand the limitations of average population density comparisos.

    There are other confounding factors. For example, how many of the New York Covid-19 deaths were a result Democrat Governor Andrew Cuomo forcing nursing home to admit patients testing positive for Covid+19? How many of the Covid-19 deaths were the result of Cuomo banning single use plastic bags encouraging people to use their disease infested reusable bags?

    Basically, there is no proof that any of the lockdown policies saved any lives but there is plenty of proof that the lockdown policies damaged many lives – violating the Hippocratic oath of do no harm

    • Replies: @obwandiyag
  29. @anon

    Paid asshole troll liar. You can tell by the boldface.

  30. @Ganderson

    … although I’d think half that population would be protected because of the get-ups they wear.

    Haha, Mr. Ganderson, thanks for bringing that up. These people have been masking up for years, and look, they’re doing just great, so I guess that’s all the proof we need. Burkas for everyone, 24/7/365 and sometimes 366!

    It’s just possible that these vibrant pup-tent fashion trendsetters are better looking than anyone in Sweden short of Agnetha and Anni-Freda. How can one be sure though, until after the marriage ceremony? It sounds like a problem, but that’s where that convenient “I divorce thee, I divorce thee, I divorce thee” protocol comes in handy.

  31. anon[230] • Disclaimer says:
    @James Landauer

    it is the immune system, stupid!

    Agree with your post 100%. Although in my opinion, Bill Maher’s monologue says this in a more entertaining fashion.

  32. utu says:
    @anon

    “I see you are still deflecting…” – I addressed all point that you made in your previous post.

    “…see Hail’s excellent plo…” – Hail’s plot is unsourced. In think it was made just for the propaganda purpose to make a false persuasion for ignorant suckers like yourself. On March 16 Imperial college report did not make any forecast about Sweden.

    https://www.imperial.ac.uk/media/imperial-college/medicine/sph/ide/gida-fellowships/Imperial-College-COVID19-NPI-modelling-16-03-2020.pdf

    For UK and US they estimated death at peak to be about 15 per 100,000 population (Figure 1). This would imply 1,500 per day in Sweden if scaled by population which turned out to be factor of 10 too high. However Sweden has 10 time lower density of population than UK. One has to scale by the population density as well. UK density of population is 256 per sq. km while Sweden is 25 per sq. km. If we divide 1,500 by 10 we get 150 per day at the peak of the epidemic. Now look at Swedish official daily deaths data:

    and you can see that at the peak daily deaths were around 100-110. So it turns out that the Imperial College forecast of March 16 was actually pretty good after all.

    “First of all, in your own plot, Sweden is not 7.5 times higher than Denmark. ” – It is true for Finland became they have the same population density but if you correct for the population density this also true for Denmark, that’s why I drew a regression line between FIN, NOR and DEN to show the population density effect.

    “Second of all, country population density per square mile is a meaningless statistic since Sweden’s land mass is larger than all the other Scandinavian countries.”

    – You have just disclosed that you have no understanding how epidemics spread and why population density is such an important factor.

    • Replies: @utu
  33. utu says:
    @utu

    The plot for Sweden that the commentator Hail keeps showing to drive the point how bad the March 16 Imperial College predictions was apparently was made by Hail. See his blog:

    https://hailtoyou.wordpress.com/2020/04/19/against-the-corona-panic-pt-iii-just-the-flu-vindicated-by-the-data-or-why-to-end-the-shutdowns-now/#epidemicover

    First of all Imperial College did not make a forecast about Sweden in March 16 report.
    https://www.imperial.ac.uk/media/imperial-college/medicine/sph/ide/gida-fellowships/Imperial-College-COVID19-NPI-modelling-16-03-2020.pdf

    so it seems that Hail scaled US or UK forecast by population to obtain curves that he mislabels as Imperial College forecast for Sweden. This is Hail’s LIE #1. Obviously one can’t do that because models depend on other factors like the population density. Sweden has 10 times lower density than UK. Hail besides bing disingenuous is also wrong. One may expect that the daily death would have to be scaled down. Sweden is not just 1/6.6 population of UK but also 1/10 population density of UK.

    One can get official daily deaths Swedish data from

    https://experience.arcgis.com/experience/09f821667ce64bf7be6f9f87457ed9aa

    If we take Figure 1 from March 16 forecast for UK-US of 15-20/100,000 deaths and then scaled down by 10 to account for population density we get surprising close to the actual Swedish daily deaths data.

    Hail is a sloppy propagandist but good enough for the ignorant and cognitively impaired.

    • Replies: @anon
    , @Hail
    , @Hail
  34. Julia D. says:

    Please spread this nurse’ testimony before they delete it: in NEW YORK, THEY MURDER PEOPLE

    Video: New York City Nurse Blows Whistle About Coronavirus Hospital Patient Treatment

    https://www.globalresearch.ca/video-nyc-nurse-blows-whistle-about-coronavirus-hospital-patient-treatment-theyre-left-rot-die/5711854

    • Replies: @Achmed E. Newman
  35. @Ann Nonny Mouse

    In reality they don’t really know. They just want a model from a “white country” to follow. it’s easy for them to talk tough when it’s not their grand parents or parents lives at stake.

  36. @Dumbo

    Agreed…. Though actually it is possible for a place with low density to have a high rate of infection. In fact – some suburban counties surrounding NYC have higher infection rates.

  37. anon[230] • Disclaimer says:
    @utu

    First, thanks very much for addressing the Neil Ferguson models – the source of all the lockdown hysteria in the UK and US.

    First of all Imperial College did not make a forecast about Sweden in March 16 report.
    https://www.imperial.ac.uk/media/imperial-college/medicine/sph/ide/gida-fellowships/Imperial-College-COVID19-NPI-modelling-16-03-2020.pdf

    You are quite correct

    it seems that Hail scaled US or UK forecast by population to obtain curves that he mislabels as Imperial College forecast for Sweden.

    The Uppsala University in Sweden was so upset about Neil Ferguson’s model UK and US projections that they ran Sweden against the same Neil Ferguson models and came up with the results below.

    These spectacularly wrong results for Sweden generated by Neil Ferguson’s model terrified the Uppsala Researchers so much that they tried, but fortunately for Sweden, failed to change the governments policy.

    Note that the output from Neil Ferguson’s spectacularly wrong models were used by Fauci and Birx to bamboozle Trump into thinking lockdowns were needed while Neil Ferguson is busy creating panic by promoting his 2.2million US dead worst case 1.1million US dead best case model projections to the New York Times.

    So, How much jail time and financial penalties should Neil Ferguson incur for unnecessarily creating a panic? How about Fauci and Birx?

    The entire story and more is at the links below

    https://www.aier.org/article/imperial-college-model-applied-to-sweden-yields-preposterous-results/

    https://www.aier.org/article/how-wrong-were-the-models-and-why/

    • Replies: @utu
  38. Hail says: • Website
    @anon

    Neil Ferguson, Fauci and Brix have created a false panic and should be sued and criminally prosecuted accordingly

    In a just world, they would get prison time for fraud, treason, and murder, the latter for the Panic-caused deaths. Panic-attributable deaths may end up exceeding virus-caused deaths even in the short term, and by many times over in the long term. As the smoke has cleared, it’s clear the unnecessary Panic explains each and every one of the hotsposts, like Bergamo and New York City.

    There was never any reason to treat this any differently than any other flu virus.

    Of course, the Fauci junta didn’t seize power in a vacuum. The media is also guilty, probably a good deal more guilty than the Fauci junta itself and their equivalents elesewhere. Another thing to blame is Technology, which allows ‘us’ to zap saturation-level info at people 24/7 and “track” flu viruses, an act which cons people (via those “rolling infection/death counts”) into thinking a zombie-movie has become reality.

    • Agree: schnellandine
  39. Hail says: • Website
    @utu

    Hail scaled US or UK forecast by population to obtain curves that he mislabels as Imperial College forecast for Sweden

    I never labeled it “Imperial College forecast for Sweden.” This is just a cheap lie by you, utu. It is “the Imperial College predictions applied to Sweden.”

    In the post in which these graphs were published, the methodology is clear. The “UK Imperial College projection” curves in the Sweden Reality vs. Ferguson Predictions graph apply the US per-capita-deaths curve to Sweden, given that Sweden and the US have the same population density. The UK has higher population density and its curve is higher. But the epidemic started earlier in Europe than in the US, so the timeline used for Sweden is the same as the UK’s in Ferguson. The US per-capita death rate and the UK timeline.

    The totals implied by this application of the Ferguson estimates to Sweden align with other studies on Sweden released by the pro-Panic side, such as another badly-wrong “up to 180,000” deaths estimate by Jasmine Gardner et al published as late as April 15 (presumably compiled earlier, as by April 15 it was already clear the Ferguson estimates were much too high, as we of the anti-Panic side said they would be all along).

    I don’t know why you argue with ad hominem so much, plus tossing in a lot of “making things up,” such as this false claim I’ve taken the time to correct here.

    I’d advise more time reevaluating whether this Corona-Panic was ever worth it, less time attacking the bearers of the good news that we need not fear Virus Apocalypse after all.

    • Replies: @utu
    , @Twodees Partain
  40. Hail says: • Website
    @utu

    [Neil Fergusons’s “millions of deaths” guesstimate released March 16] is surprising close to the actual Swedish daily deaths data [to May 6]

    Here on Earth, that is not the case.

    Among the many ways that is wrong or misleading — and believe you know it is, — one has to consider that epidemics follows a curve, as so much else in nature does. What we are really interested in is the curve, not exact dates.

    The peak period for coronavirus-positive deaths in Sweden is mid-April. Those following the numbers knew already at the time deaths were peaking, as expected, at that time. By late April, with near-complete data now, total deaths per day were about 40% below the peak. They were at a similar level two weeks before the peak, the upswing of the curve. The Deaths curve continues to follow the usual bell curve downward, losing -2.5 deaths per day in the rolling average between April 13 and April 27. The epidemic in Sweden is ending.

    The peak for all coronavirus-positive deaths, on current numbers, by one measure (five-day rolling average) would be April 8 to 16, averaging 96/day. The peak single day by this measure was April 13, at 99/day.

    There is indication that only around one-third of these, in Sweden, are genuine, virus-caused deaths. Total deaths for the year will not be unusually high, and probably won’t even exceed the 2018 total, or if so just slightly.

    I don’t know if it is worth writing these comments, as utu may at this point be a troll, but here I’ve written it anyway.

  41. utu says:
    @anon

    “So, How much jail time and financial penalties should Neil Ferguson incur for unnecessarily creating a panic? How about Fauci and Birx?” – What are you talking about? If UK instead of following Neil Ferguson followed Anders Tegnell 7.5 time more people in the UK would be dead by now. Ferguson saved 29,000*(7.5-1)=188,500 lives in the UK. While Tegnell killed 2,941*(1-/7.5)=2,548 people in Sweden. Tegnell is surprised that people died. Apparently he forgot to do calculations:

    https://www.businessinsider.com/coronavirus-sweden-lockdown-chief-says-high-death-toll-was-surprise-2020-5
    The head of Sweden’s no-lockdown coronavirus plan said the country’s heavy death toll ‘came as a surprise’

    “We never really calculated with a high death toll initially, I must say,” he said.

    “We calculated on more people being sick, but the death toll really came as a surprise to us.”

    If I were you I would rather worry about Anders Tegnell’s head.

    • Replies: @anon
  42. @Julia D.

    Yep, Julia, Peak Stupidity has spread this same video near and narrow in this post. It’s tragic what happens when you import 3rd-world labor, and to top it off, from all over the world like a Tower of Babel. They are being scared shitless by the Infotainment PanicFest just like everyone else. It’s now working out well at all.

  43. @Achmed E. Newman

    “… not working out well at all.”

  44. jsinton says:

    It’s all academic now, since the corrupt politicians, the incompetent technocrats, and the willing proles have ensured the implosion of the world economy that will surely destroy billions of lives. The only question now is was it intentional?

  45. A very good article appeared on Project-Syndicate. Yes, that’s Soros’ site. But even if you are anti-Soros don’t let that keep you from reading it. It is very interesting, well written and short.

    When Will the Pandemic Cure Be Worse Than the Disease?
    https://www.project-syndicate.org/commentary/when-will-lockdowns-be-worse-than-covid19-by-peter-singer-and-michael-plant-2020-04

  46. utu says:
    @Hail

    “the Imperial College predictions applied to Sweden” – You think that one word “applied” makes any difference. Your graph that you concocted is a piece of propaganda. Your graph has no relation to science. You mislead and lied. Ferguson did not make a forecast for Sweden. Taking his US or UK forecast for Sweden is invalid. And this is what you did. You did not scale by population density because if you did the result would be too close to what is happening in Sweden and would not serve your propaganda. Hail, you a cheap propagandist who resorts to distortion in order to mislead.

  47. @Robert Dolan

    Sweden appears to have escaped the problem that currently seems to be affecting all public policy making in most countries. The immediate crisis is the SARS-CoV-2 pandemic. Public health and medical experts are focusing solely on this. The less immediate crisis is a looming economic catastrophe, that will happen partly as a result of current public health measures, and will bring in its wake widespread misery and social disorder.* Experts in other areas than public health and medicine are focusing on these issues.

    The same problem arises whenever one-sided expert panels are formed. The experts are usually blind to concerns outside their fields of expertise and do not take them into consideration. Even if concerns outside their immediate fields of expertise are considered, members of one-sided panels lack the knowledge set and experience to appropriately address these concerns, and ultimately craft appropriate policies.

    What are desperately needed at this point in time are joint expert committees that can craft short and long term policies which appropriately address all aspects of the currently unfolding crisis. At a minimum such committees’ memberships should include expert representation from public health, medicine, economics and finance, public safety, national security, small business, and major industries including agriculture, transportation, manufacturing, recreation, entertainment, tourism, et al.

    Debates, disagreements and resolutions should be occurring in these committees and at least partially resolved before politicians get involved.

    ——

    * If current stringent public health policies carry on much longer, particularly into the summer months in urban areas, they are likely to generate considerable misery and social unrest entirely on their own.

    • Agree: Mark G.
  48. anon[230] • Disclaimer says:
    @utu

    Instead of focusing on the spectacular failure of Neil Ferguson’s models, the source of all the Covid-19 hysteria and lockdowns, you have taken to deflecting again and trotting out your bogus 7.5 number.

    Neil Ferguson’s models predicted over 100,000 Swedish Covid-19 deaths

    The actual Swedish Covid-19 death count is under 3,000

    I am not saying disgraced Neil Ferguson should be jailed for being wrong. I am saying disgraced Neil Ferguson should be jailed for creating a panic.

    A responsible scientist would be circumspect and quietly discuss his models with other epidemiologists and come to a consensus. An irresponsible scientist promotes his 2million US death theory to the NY Times with certainty and zeal which is what disgraced Neil Ferguson did.

    There is no proof that any of the lockdown policies disgraced Neil Ferguson advocated saved any lives but there is plenty of proof that the lockdown policies Neil Fergusoon advocated damaged many lives – violating the Hippocratic oath of do no harm

    • Agree: Hail
    • Replies: @Hail
  49. I have continued my nightly or early morning strolls.

    But the arguments that the lockdown was ineffective is probably a stretch. There simply is no way to really know. One might say it was over the top, but even then . . . it’s a speculative turn.

    On my walk I sometimes consider taking a route and ten reconsider and change course. Now depending on my objectives, after that walk, and looking at the routes , I might contend , I should have gone the route because it would have been smoother or a steeper climb or less an incline that I desired.

    But the real truth is, I don’t know because I did not take that route.

    Would china have faired better without a lockdown — maybe.

    • Replies: @anon
  50. anon[230] • Disclaimer says:
    @EliteCommInc.

    But the real truth is, I don’t know because I did not take that route

    .

    The Road Not Taken
    by Robert Frost

    [MORE]

    Two roads diverged in a yellow wood,
    And sorry I could not travel both
    And be one traveler, long I stood
    And looked down one as far as I could
    To where it bent in the undergrowth;
    Then took the other, as just as fair,
    And having perhaps the better claim,
    Because it was grassy and wanted wear;
    Though as for that the passing there
    Had worn them really about the same,
    And both that morning equally lay
    In leaves no step had trodden black.
    Oh, I kept the first for another day!
    Yet knowing how way leads on to way,
    I doubted if I should ever come back.
    I shall be telling this with a sigh
    Somewhere ages and ages hence:
    Two roads diverged in a wood, and I-
    I took the one less traveled by,
    And that has made all the difference.

  51. @Achmed E. Newman

    I assure you the white nurses are leaving people to rot, too. Absolutely. Get to know some. You’ll see what I mean.

  52. Hail says: • Website
    @anon

    The actual Swedish Covid-19 death count is under 3,000

    The impact is lower even than that. Total coronavirus-positive deaths in Sweden are approaching 3,250 but the “actual Covid-19 death count” in the sense of direct, virus-caused deaths is going to be lower, perhaps no higher than 1,250. The rest are “deaths with, not from” and ambiguous cases.

    By the end of the epidemic, maybe this could rise as high as 2,000, which puts it up to 100x lower than the Ferguson predictions.

    The problem of “deaths with vs. “deaths from”: Only one-third of corona-positive deaths as genuine “deaths from,” the case of Sweden (May 8)

    Total coronavirus-positive deaths (the number approaching 3,250) are about equal to 25% of the expected deaths in the same period, which also happens to be near the spread of the virus in the population at about the relevant point.

    With the epidemic in clear decline in Stay-OpenSweden, the last hopes of the pro-Panic side are also gone, leaving only belief, leaving only an ugly apocalypse cult under Saint Ferguson and pro-Panic juntas in governments near and far.

  53. About 25% of Sweden’s population are immigrants, and quite a few of those are refugees. I have been told by a Swedish physician that the incidence of Covid-19 illness and deaths is quite a lot higher [as much as 5X in Somalis] than the native Swedish population. This difference is thought to be related to the socio-economic status of the immigrant population, and to their manner of living. So, take out the immigrant numbers, and Sweden is really looking pretty good.

  54. Marko20 says:

    Sorry to see this from Mike Whitney. I’m running out of sources who I used to generally trust, e.g. , 21Wire , OffGuardian , Corbett Report , and the like.

    I chalk it up to an inability of many folks to grok basic math and data presentation. Whatever the reason , this failure severely damages the credibility I assign to these people on ALL topics going forward , and I regret that. More and more , I find it harder to find a good place to turn to for reliable analysis.

    BTW , Sweden is not doing so hot compared to countries who had intelligent responses. The reason they’re not doing even worse is that the Swedish people are smart , and are taking their own precautions , in spite of the “just the flu” cranks’ blathering , just as most sane Americans are ignoring Trump.

    • Troll: Achmed E. Newman
    • Replies: @anon
  55. anon[230] • Disclaimer says:
    @Marko20

    Sorry to see this from Mike Whitney. I’m running out of sources who I used to generally trust, e.g. , 21Wire , OffGuardian , Corbett Report , and the like.

    Trust? Why are you not looking at the official numbers from the Swedish Ministry of Public Health web site and drawing your own conclusions. Trust is for cult members. Rational people look at the raw data and draw their own conclusions.

    .I find it harder to find a good place to turn to for reliable analysis.

    Why are you unable to look at the official raw daily death counts (Avlidna/dag) from the Swedish Ministry of Public Health and do your own analysis?

    Sweden is not doing so hot compared to countries who had intelligent responses

    The point is not how Sweden is doing against other lockdown countries. The point is how is Sweden doing against disgraced Neil Ferguson’s model projections which were used to lockdown the US based on its 2.2 million US deaths prediction. Note that disgraced Neil Ferguson’s model predicted over 100,000 deaths in Sweden.

    How are those predictions holding up and what does that say about the accuracy of disgraced Neil Ferguson’s model prediction of 2.2 million US deaths if no lockdowns occurred which was used to bamboozle Trump into locking down the country?

    • Replies: @Marko20
  56. Marko20 says:
    @anon

    Why would I try to wade through a spreadsheet annotated in a foreign language when I can get the same data from any number of English language websites ?

    The Swedish Ministry website makes it difficult to find the data on deaths in a format that allows easy translation , but I did find this :

    https://www.folkhalsomyndigheten.se/contentassets/4b4dd8c7e15d48d2be744248794d1438/ecdc-2020-05-08-covid19-1-distribution.pdf

    The very last chart shows Swedish deaths per 100k population of 30.7 ( or 307 per million ) on May 8. This agrees well with that reported elsewhere , e.g. Worldometer , which shows 319/million on that day. Using either figure , it is multiples higher than the comparables of Norway , Finland , Demark , and Iceland. Like I said , not so hot.

    Following case counts is mostly a fools errand , since testing criteria and intensity is so variable between countries , and it changes over time , also variably.

    Models , schmodels – we’re far enough into this to use the actual , real-time data , and it paints an obvious and clear picture. Because of your prior convictions , and poor data analysis skills , people like you and Whitney can’t see that picture.

    • Replies: @anon
  57. bleeter says:

    you are a total clown. Sweden is NOT the answer.
    Hk, Taiwan, Australia and NZ are the answer. They acted fast. They shut their airports and they ALL wear masks.
    All these countries are well advanced at opening up.
    Get out of the US and Europe for once and learn something bud.

  58. anon[230] • Disclaimer says:
    @Marko20

    Why would I try to wade through a spreadsheet annotated in a foreign language when I can get the same data from any number of English language websites ?

    No you can’t. Almost all of these English language websites get their data from suspicious worldometer which incorrectly shows increasing Covid-19 Swedish daily death totals while the Swedish Ministry of Public Health data shows that the daily Covid-19 death totals are actually declining.

    Models , schmodels – we’re far enough into this to use the actual , real-time data , and it paints an obvious and clear picture.

    Here you are correct. The Swedish data shows that the US Covid-19 deaths projections were off by at least 2 million deaths and that Trump was tricked into agreeing to an unnecessary lockdown which has damaged so many lives and run roughshod over our civil liberties.

    Of course people like you prefer to deflect from the spectacular failure of the “experts” 2.2 million US Covid-19 death model prediction by doing comparisons between Denmark and Sweden whose total death differences fall into the statistical noise category.

  59. Marko20 says:

    “….Denmark and Sweden whose total death differences fall into the statistical noise category.”

    With that statement you’re emphatically proving my point – that people like you and Whitney can’t process data or graphs and extract meaningful information from them. Look again at the ( very simple) graphs of cumulative deaths and death rates ( deaths per 100k population ) at the bottom of pages 6 and 7 , here , showing Sweden compared to the other Nordic countries :

    https://www.folkhalsomyndigheten.se/contentassets/4b4dd8c7e15d48d2be744248794d1438/ecdc-2020-05-08-covid19-1-distribution.pdf

    Keep in mind , this is not from Worldometer , it’s pulled directly from your favorite source , the Swedish Ministry of Public Health .

    If you’re still confused , ask a friend to help you. Or your mom.

    • Replies: @anon
  60. @Hail

    Your pal, utu, has been working desperately to get a gold star or at least a gold border for one of his comments. Don’t take it personally. He’s that rude to almost everyone.

  61. anon[230] • Disclaimer says:
    @Marko20

    With that statement you’re emphatically proving my point – that people like you and Whitney can’t process data or graphs and extract meaningful information from them. Look again at the ( very simple) graphs of cumulative deaths and death rates ( deaths per 100k population ) at the bottom of pages 6 and 7 , here , showing Sweden compared to the other Nordic countries :

    https://www.folkhalsomyndigheten.se/contentassets/4b4dd8c7e15d48d2be744248794d1438/ecdc-2020-05-08-covid19-1-distribution.pdf

    Let’s look at these tables. Iceland has the highest incidence of Corona virus per 100,000 people (509.37). Over double that of Sweden and quadruple that of other Nordic countries. Yet Iceland’s death rate per 100,000 people is the lowest of any other Nordic country.

    What does this tell us? All the numbers fall under the statistical noise category.

    Again, Again Again. You are still deflecting from the the main point. The Swedish data shows that the US Covid-19 deaths projections were off by at least 2 million deaths and that Trump was tricked into agreeing to an unnecessary lockdown which has damaged so many lives and run roughshod over our civil liberties.

    Are you going to admit that the Swedish data shows that the models used to convince Trump of lockdown necessity were spectacularly wrong or are you going to continue to deflect and rationalize, like the Jehovah’s Witnesses when their prophetic predictions failed.

  62. Marko20 says:

    “Let’s look at these tables. Iceland has the highest incidence of Corona virus per 100,000 people (509.37). Over double that of Sweden and quadruple that of other Nordic countries. Yet Iceland’s death rate per 100,000 people is the lowest of any other Nordic country.”

    Again you show you have no ability to comprehend the data , plus I’m sure you’re unaware that Iceland is a unique anomaly among all countries regarding infection incidence , for one simple reason: they’ve tested massively relative to their population size , via the resources of a private Icelandic company , deCODE Genetics.

    The total number who have been infected in virtually all EU countries and the US is on the order of 5-20 times higher than the reported “confirmed” cases , solely due to insufficient testing. Anyone who knows anything at all about this outbreak is aware of that , and in fact it forms the basis of the MAGA-tards’ insistence that we’re already at or approaching “herd immunity”. That’s why I said that relying on case counts (rather than death counts) was a fools errand. One that you’re happy to run , apparently.

    “Are you going to admit that the Swedish data shows that the models used to convince Trump of lockdown necessity were spectacularly wrong….”

    We only know that the Imperial College model was inappropriate in its assumptions , not that it was wrong given those assumptions. It assumed no mitigation , when in fact mitigation by way of voluntary isolation and social-distancing had already begun when the model was released , and before any “lockdowns” were implemented. From page 6 of the March 16 report :

    “In the (unlikely) absence of any control measures or spontaneous changes in individual behaviour, we would expect a peak in mortality (daily deaths) to occur after approximately 3 months (Figure 1A). In such scenarios, given an estimated R0 of 2.4, we predict 81% of GB and US populations would be infected over the course of the epidemic. Epidemic timings are approximate given the limitations of surveillance data in both countries: The epidemic is predicted to be broader in the US than in GB and to peak slightly later. This is due to the larger geographic scale of the US, resulting in more distinct localised epidemics across states (Figure 1B) than seen across GB. The higher peak in mortality in GB is due to the smaller size of the country and its older population compared with the US. In total, in an unmitigated epidemic, we would predict approximately 510,000 deaths in GB and 2.2 million in the US, not accounting for the potential negative effects of health systems being overwhelmed on mortality.”

    Learn a little before you spout off. You’re embarrassing yourself.

  63. anon[230] • Disclaimer says:

    We only know that the Imperial College model was inappropriate in its assumptions , not that it was wrong given those assumptions. It assumed no mitigation , when in fact mitigation by way of voluntary isolation and social-distancing had already begun when the model was released , and before any “lockdowns” were implemented. From page 6 of the March 16 report

    No, from the Swedish data, we know that Neil Ferguson’s model was spectacularly wrong period. Look again at the plot below from Uppsala University using Neil Furguson’s models. Do you see that different mitigation strategies are covered? Are any of the projected deaths even close to the actual Swedish death counts?

    https://www.aier.org/article/imperial-college-model-applied-to-sweden-yields-preposterous-results/

    Are you going to finally admit that the Swedish data shows that the models used to convince Trump of lockdown necessity were spectacularly wrong or are you going to continue to ignore the gross inaccuracies of the Neil Ferguson’s model Swedish death projections?

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