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Looks Like Sweden Was Right After All
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Why is the media so fixated on Sweden’s coronavirus policy? What difference does it make?

Sweden settled on a policy that they thought was both sustainable and would save as many lives as possible. They weren’t trying to ‘show anyone up’ or ‘prove how smart they were’. They simply took a more traditionalist approach that avoided a full-scale lockdown. That’s all.

But that’s the problem, isn’t it? And that’s why Sweden has been so harshly criticized in the media, because they refused to do what everyone else was doing. They refused to adopt a policy that elites now universally support, a policy that scares people into cowering submission. The Swedish model is a threat to that approach because it allows people to maintain their personal freedom even in the midst of a global pandemic. Ruling class elites don’t want that, that is not in their interests. What they want is for the people to meekly accept the rules and conditions that lead to their eventual enslavement. That’s the real objective, complete social control, saving lives has nothing to do with it. Sweden opposed that approach which is why Sweden has to be destroyed. It’s that simple.

Of course, none of this has anything to do with Sweden’s fatality rate, which is higher than some and lower than others. (Sweden has 543 deaths per million, which means roughly 1 death in every 2,000 people.) But like every other country, the vast majority of Swedish fatalities are among people 70 years and older with underlying health conditions. (“90% of the country’s deaths have been among those over 70.”) Sweden was not successful in protecting the people in its elderly care facilities, so large numbers of them were wiped out following the outbreak. Sweden failed in that regard and they’ve admitted they failed. Even so, the failures of implementation do not imply that the policy is wrong. Quite the contrary. Sweden settled on a sustainable policy, that keeps the economy running, preserves an atmosphere of normality, and exposes its young, low-risk people to the infection, thus, moving the population closer to the ultimate goal of “herd immunity”.

Presently, Sweden is very close to reaching herd immunity which is a condition in which the majority have developed antibodies that will help to fend-off similar sars-covid infections in the future. Absent a vaccine, herd immunity is the best that can be hoped for. It ensures that future outbreaks will be less disruptive and less lethal. Take a look at this excerpt from an article at the Off-Guardian which helps to explain what’s really going on:

“Sweden’s health minister understood that the only chance to beat COVID-19 was to get the Swedish population to a Herd Immunity Threshold against COVID-19, and that’s exactly what they have done…

The Herd Immunity Threshold (“HIT”) for COVID-19 is between 10-20%

This fact gets less press than any other. Most people understand the basic concept of herd immunity and the math behind it. In the early days, some public health officials speculated that COVID-19’s HIT was 70%. Obviously, the difference between a HIT of 70% and a HIT of 10-20% is dramatic, and the lower the HIT, the quicker a virus will burn out as it loses the ability to infect more people, which is exactly what COVID-19 is doing everywhere, including the U.S, which is why the death curve above looks the way it looks.

Scientists from Oxford, Virginia Tech, and the Liverpool School of Tropical Medicine, all recently explained the HIT of COVID-19 in this paper:

We searched the literature for estimates of individual variation in propensity to acquire or transmit COVID-19 or other infectious diseases and overlaid the findings as vertical lines in Figure 3. Most CV estimates are comprised between 2 and 4, a range where naturally acquired immunity to SARS-CoV-2 may place populations over the herd immunity threshold once as few as 10-20% of its individuals are immune….

Naturally acquired herd immunity to COVID-19 combined with earnest protection of the vulnerable elderly – especially nursing home and assisted living facility residents — is an eminently reasonable and practical alternative to the dubious panacea of mass compulsory vaccination against the virus.

This strategy was successfully implemented in Malmo, Sweden, which had few COVID-19 deaths by assiduously protecting its elder care homes, while “schools remained open, residents carried on drinking in bars and cafes, and the doors of hairdressers and gyms were open throughout.

One of the most vocal members of the scientific community discussing COVID-19’s HIT is Stanford’s Nobel-laureate Dr. Michael Levitt. Back on May 4, he gave this great interview to the Stanford Daily where he advocated for Sweden’s approach of letting COVID-19 spread naturally through the community until you arrive at HIT. He stated:

If Sweden stops at about 5,000 or 6,000 deaths, we will know that they’ve reached herd immunity, and we didn’t need to do any kind of lockdown. My own feeling is that it will probably stop because of herd immunity. COVID is serious, it’s at least a serious flu. But it’s not going to destroy humanity as people thought.

Guess what? That’s exactly what happened. As of today, 7 weeks after his prediction, Sweden has 5,550 deaths. In this graph, you can see that deaths in Sweden PEAKED when the HIT was halfway to its peak (roughly 7.3%) and by the time the virus hit 14% it was nearly extinguished.” (“Second wave? Not even close“, JB Handley, The Off-Guardian)

In other words, Sweden is rapidly approaching the endgame which means that restrictions can be dropped entirely and normal life can resume. They will have maintained their dignity and freedom while the rest of the world hid under their beds for months on end. They won’t have to reopen their primary schools because they never shut them down to begin with. Numerous reports indicate that young children are neither at risk nor do they pass the virus to others. Most Americans don’t know this because the propaganda media has omitted the news from their coverage. Here’s a clip from the National Review which helps to explain:

Kari Stefansson, CEO of the Icelandic company deCODE genetics in Reykjavík, studied the spread of COVID-19 in Iceland with Iceland’s Directorate of Health and the National University Hospital. His project has tested 36,500 people; as of this writing,

Children under 10 are less likely to get infected than adults and if they get infected, they are less likely to get seriously ill. What is interesting is that even if children do get infected, they are less likely to transmit the disease to others than adults. We have not found a single instance of a child infecting parents.” (“Icelandic Study: ‘We Have Not Found a Single Instance of a Child Infecting Parents.’“, National Review)

This is just one of many similar reports from around the world. Most of the schools in Europe have already reopened and lifted restrictions on distancing and masks. Meanwhile, in the US, the reopening of schools has become another contentious political issue pitting Trump against his Democrat adversaries who are willing to sacrifice the lives of schoolchildren to prevent the president from being reelected. It’s a cynical-counterproductive approach that reveals the vindictiveness of the people who support it. In an election year, everything is politics. (Watch Tucker Carlson’s short segment on “Kids cannot afford to stay locked down.“)

Here’s a question for you: Have you ever wondered why the virus sweeps through the population and then seemingly dissipates and dies out? In fact, the virus doesn’t simply die-out, it runs out of people to infect. But how can that be when only 1 of 7 people will ever contract the virus?

The answer is immunity, either natural immunity or built up immunity from other Sars-Covid exposure. Here’s more from the Off Guardian piece:

“Scientists are now showing evidence that up to 81% of us can mount a strong response to COVID-19 without ever having been exposed to it before:

Cross-reactive SARS-CoV-2 T-cell epitopes revealed preexisting T-cell responses in 81% of unexposed individuals, and validation of similarity to common cold human coronaviruses provided a functional basis for postulated heterologous immunity.

This alone could explain WHY the Herd Immunity Threshold (HIT) is so much lower for COVID-19 than some scientists thought originally, when the number being talked about was closer to 70%. Many of us have always been immune! (“Second wave? Not even close”, JB Handley, The Off-Guardian)

What does it mean?

It means that Fauci and the idiots in the media have been lying to us the whole time. It means that Covid-19 is not a totally new virus for which humans have no natural immunity or built-in protection. Covid is a derivative of other infections which is why the death toll isn’t alot higher. Check this out from the BBC:

“People testing negative for coronavirus antibodies may still have some immunity, a study has suggested. For every person testing positive for antibodies, two were found to have specific T-cells which identify and destroy infected cells. This was seen even in people who had mild or symptomless cases of Covid-19..

This could mean a wider group have some level of immunity to Covid-19 than antibody testing figures, like those published as part of the UK Office for National Statistics Infection Survey, suggest…..And these people should be protected if they are exposed to the virus for a second time.” (“Coronavirus: Immunity may be more widespread than tests suggest“, BBC)

Now, I realize that there’s some dispute about immunity, but there shouldn’t be. If you contract the virus, you either won’t get it again or you’ll get a much milder case. And if immunity doesn’t exist, then we’re crazy to waste our time trying to develop a vaccine, right?

What the science tells us is that immunity does exist and the reason the vast majority of people didn’t get the infection— is not because they locked themselves indoors and hid behind the sofa– but because they already have partial immunity either from their genetic makeup or from previous exposure to Sars-CoV-2 which was identified in 2002.

It’s worth repeating that the reason everyone was so scared about Covid originally was because it was hyped as a “novel virus”, completely new with no known cure or natural protection. That was a lie that was propagated by Fauci and his dissembling Vaccine Mafia, all of who are responsible for the vast destruction to the US economy, the unprecedented spike in unemployment, and the obliteration of tens of thousands of small businesses.

As the author points out, we should have known from the incident on the Diamond Princess (Cruise Liner) that immunity was far more widespread than previously thought. Readers might recall that only 17% of the people on board tested Covid-positive, “despite an ideal environment for mass spread, implying 83% of the people were somehow protected from the new virus.”

Think about that for a minute. All of the passengers were 60 years old or older, but only 17% caught the virus. Why?

Immunity, that’s why. What else could it be? Cross immunity, natural immunity, or SARS-CoV-2 T-cell immunity. Whatever you want to call it, it exists and it explains why the vast majority of people will not get the highly-contagious Covid no matter what they do.

It’s also worth pointing out that even according to the CDC’s own statistics, the Infection Fatality Rate (IFR) is a mere 0.26% whereas “According to the latest immunological and serological studies, the overall lethality of Covid-19 (IFR) is about 0.1% and thus in the range of a strong seasonal influenza (flu).” (“Facts about Covid-19”, Swiss Policy Research)

So the death rate is somewhere in the neighborhood of 1 in every 500 (who contract the virus) to 1 in every 1,000. How can any rational person shut down a $21 trillion economy and order 340 million people into quarantine, based on the fact that 1 in every thousand people (mostly old and infirm) might die from an infection?? That was a act of pure, unalloyed Madness for which the American people will pay dearly for years to come. Once again, the US response was crafted by people who were promoting their own narrow political, social and economic agenda, not acting in the interests of the American people. We should expect more from our leaders than this.

So what does all of this say about the sharp spike in Covid positive cases in the south and the chances of a “second wave”?

There’s not going to be a second wave (The massive BLM protests in NY city has not produced any uptick in deaths, because NY has already achieved herd immunity. In contrast, Florida will undoubtedly experience more fatalities because it has not yet reached HIT or the Herd Immunity Threshold. Cases are increasing because younger- low-risk people are circulating more freely and because testing has increased by many orders of magnitude. At the same time, deaths continue to go down.

On Wednesday, US new cases rose to an eye-watering 62,000 in one day while deaths are down 75% from the April peak. This shouldn’t come as a surprise because the pattern has been the same as in countries around the world. The trajectory of infections was mapped out long ago by UK epidemiologist and statistician, William Farr. Take a look:

“Farr shows us that once peak infection has been reached then it will roughly follow the same symmetrical pattern on the downward slope. However, under testing and variations in testing regimes means we have no way of knowing when the peak of infections occurred. In this situation, we should use the data on deaths to predict the peak. There is a predicted time lag from infection to COVID deaths of approximately 21 to 28 days.

Once peak deaths have been reached we should be working on the assumption that the infection has already started falling in the same progressive steps. …

Farr, also illustrated that those who are the most ‘mortal die out’, and in a pandemic are those in most need of shielding….(So, Farr saw the wisdom of the Swedish approach a full 180 years ago!)

In the midst of a pandemic, it is easy to forget Farr’s Law, and think the number infected will just keep rising, it will not. Just as quick as measures were introduced to prevent the spread of infection we need to recognize the point at which to open up society and also the special measures due to ‘density’ that require special considerations. But most of all we must remember the message Farr left us: what goes up must come down.” (“COVID-19: William Farr’s way out of the Pandemic”, The Centre for Evidence-Based Medicine)

What this tells us is that the fatality rate is a more reliable barometer of what is taking place than the spike in new cases. And what the death rates signals is that the virus is on its last legs. We are not seeing the onset of a second wave, but the gradual ending of the first. Also, the fact that tens of thousands of young people are contracting Covid-19 without experiencing any pain or discomfort, confirms that immunity is widespread. This is a very positive development.

Here’s how Dr. John Thomas Littell, MD, who is President of the County Medical Society, and Chief of Staff at the Florida Hospital, summed it up in a letter to the editor of the Orlando Medical News, He said:

“Why did we as a society stop sending our children to schools and camps and sports activities? Why did we stop going to work and church and public parks and beaches? Why did we insist that healthy persons “stay at home” – rather than observing the evidence-based, medically prudent method of identifying those who were sick and isolating them from the rest of the population – advising the sick to “stay at home” and allowing the rest of society to function normally.”
(“Second wave? Not even close”, JB Handley, The Off-Guardian)

Why? Because we were misled by Doctor Fauci and the Vaccine Gestapo, that’s why. In contrast, Sweden shrugged off the dire predictions and fearmongering, and “got it right the first time.”

Hurrah for Sweden!

 
• Category: Culture/Society, Science • Tags: American Media, Coronavirus, Sweden 
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  1. Alvin says:

    Great explanation of herd immunity with both genetic (T-cell) and acquired (from previous viruses), which covers about 80-85% already, and so we only need 15-20% infections of people without T-cell or previously acquired antibodies. There is never a reason to lockdown.

    I would also add that even without this knowledge, we know that if a virus spreads rapidly and globally, it is not very lethal, so no reason to worry. On the other hand, if virus or bacteria is very lethal, then it will wipe out the first 50-100 people it infects and die off very early without much spreading at all and before people can protect themselves – think Ebola and Anthrax. Another reason to never lockdown.

  2. I checked the figures for Belarus, which did even less confinement than Sweden; so far it’s showing 449 deaths.

    Hurray for the Serbs, who are pushing back against this ridiculous confinement.

    • Agree: Digital Samizdat
    • Replies: @SteveK9
  3. Oh yes, “Hurrah for Sweden!”.
    74333 confirmed cases & a death rate of 7.4%.
    Norway, right next door has 8965 confirmed cases with a death rate of 2.8%
    Of course, it could all be worse: France has a confirmed # of 197964 with a death rate of 15.1%.
    The US with a death rate of 4.2% looks like a “happy” median.
    But, still hooray for Sweden (& frankly who needs a whole lot of useless eaters over 60-70 years of
    age ? Fuck ’em, right ?)
    https://covid19info.live/

  4. Sweden has ended up in worse economic shape than the other Nordic countries. What is to emulate? If any country got it right it is Denmark. No one seems to talk about them much though, maybe because not allowing immigrants in is a cornerstone of their plan. Hungary has also done well.

  5. As some of us said in the early days, nobody had any idea what the denominator might be. It’s like the leaders of the West saw China lock down and instead of being wary of Chinese over-reaction (does anyone remember the spectacular failure of Chinese agriculture after it launched its Four Pests campaign?), looked at one another and said, “Wow, you can do that? Hold my beer!”

    • Replies: @Gail
  6. @animalogic

    Wow, the methodology you are hanging your sarcasm upon is so flawed that you should be embarassed to post it.

    • Replies: @animalogic
  7. Mike, I’m no virologist but I think it’s safe to say that this notion that Covid-19 has a herd immunity threshold of 10 – 20%, that you take from some bullshit site, is ludicrous. You make an embarrassment of yourself as a journalist in serving up this slop.

  8. SteveK9 says:
    @Diversity Heretic

    449 in a population of 9.4 million … or, 4.8 per 100,000, one of the lowest mortality rates in the World.

    • Replies: @Change that Matters
  9. SteveK9 says:
    @animalogic

    Number of cases, means … nothing.

    Deaths / 100,000

    Sweden: 53.76
    UK: 60.47
    US: 40.31
    France: 46.52
    Belgium: 84.2
    Germany: 10.8

    Results are all over the place. Partly due to whatever crazy criterion was used to register a ‘Covid Death’. A recent probability analysis (I’ll find it if you like) reached one firm conclusion … government policies with regard to ‘lockdown’ had no effect at all. At the end of the day, I’m pretty sure that exactly how governments treat their elderly/sick … will be the key. Large nursing homes versus small, whether people were sent from hospitals (with positive Covid 19 test results) to nursing homes as in NYC and UK, etc.

    Median mortality age is ~ 82 years, many countries (Canada for example) had 80% of fatalities occur in nursing homes.

    • Agree: Mark G.
  10. @The Alarmist

    Wow, flawed methodology — sounds like 6 months & most of the world to me.
    But, thankfully you have your crystal ball….so no flies on you.

  11. @SteveK9

    “I’m pretty sure that exactly how governments treat their elderly/sick … will be the key. ”
    I agree.

    • Replies: @Alvin
  12. Dumbo says:

    Sweden opposed that approach which is why Sweden has to be destroyed. It’s that simple.

    I haven’t heard anything in the line of “Sweden has to be destroyed”, if anything, more like “Trump’s America has to be destroyed”. There was some mild criticism of their approach, but mainly because it put the lie to a lot of “coronavirus” facts. But they were as screwed economically as anyone else.

    Sweden settled on a sustainable policy, that keeps the economy running, preserves an atmosphere of normality, and exposes its young, low-risk people to the infection, thus, moving the population closer to the ultimate goal of “herd immunity”.

    The economy was not “running”. As I said the country was as screwed as the others. And there is no “herd immunity”… The virus is much less common and less contagious than thought… The tests are clearly unreliable… In fact to be honest I’m not even convinced that we are talking about a unique virus here, or that the disease is caused by such virus, or even that such disease really exists, at this point.

    • Replies: @Bro43rd
  13. Bro43rd says:

    The entire covid episode was nothing but an experiment in compliance training. The virus was just a convenient excuse much like 911 was for establishing the tsa & homeland insecurity. It’s all about controlling the tax slaves the nwo/zionazis fear the most, or in other words keeping the cash cows penned up.

    Grow your own or get from locals who do as much as possible. Repair, reuse & repurpose, stop the spending. Starve the beast! I know this isn’t a complete answer to the problem but maybe a good start. BDS the NWO! There’s power in our purses.

  14. @animalogic

    But, still hooray for Sweden (& frankly who needs a whole lot of useless eaters over 60-70 years of
    age ? Fuck ’em, right ?)

    Yes.
    Renew on the Coronasel!

  15. Bro43rd says:
    @Dumbo

    You’re probably correct. Bill Sardi, featured on lewrockwell.com has repeatedly asserted with decent evidence how covid is associated with prevalence of TB.

  16. Here’s another one (Karl Friston) who says that he thinks as much as 80% of the population is naturally resistant or immune to Covid-19. We should know in a few weeks here in Alabama.

  17. If true, bad news for Anatoly Karlin and Gregory Cochran, who then would have been way off in their predictions/analyses of the Infection Fatality Rate (IFR). There are two reliable doctors/epidemiologists in the German-speaking part of the world who would agree about the IFR being rather in the range debated here than way higher as claimed by Gregory Cochran and Anatoly Karlin.

    One of the scientists in the German-speaking part of the world is Beda M. Stadler*****, from Bern/Switzerland, who had a virus-laboratory there. His main argument is the same as brought forward by Mike Whitney above: CO-19 is NO new virus – and therefore we had some sort of immunity already, which made it easier to fight CO-19 off than feared in the beginning. Prof. Stadler is nice enough, to admit, that in the beginning, he too did not grab, that this is the point that makes the bog difference: CO-19 is no new kind (or type) of virus. The rest follows, by and large, from this fact.

    ***** Stadler’s very good written articles can be found at Achgut.com and at Die Weltwoche. A very informative interview with him is at the podcast “In Dubio”, which can also be found on Achgut.

    • Replies: @ogunsiron
  18. @animalogic

    As with most countries, a large number of deaths in Sweden were in nursing homes. The problem wasn’t no lockdown, it was staff staying home if they were symptomatic, by which time they would have already passed on the virus. That led to inadequate staff, and sub-standard care.
    It is unclear whether Sweden was reporting deaths “with Covid” as opposed to “from Covid”. “With Covid” is as useless a statistic as “cases”. As partially referenced in the article, Iceland tested approximately 15% of its population, of which approximately 50% tested positive. Of the 50% that tested positive, approximately 50% were asymptomatic. Using the numbers stated above, that means 0f the 36,500 tested, approximately 9,125 presented with some symptom, no matter how mild. Their death rate is approximately the same as seasonal flu. US reporting would say there were 18,250 “cases”, and claim all 18,250. were going to die.
    Nobody tests for seasonal flu or colds, so we have no basis for which to compare the number of infections. In the 1920s, it was claimed that 30% of measles cases were fatal. There were no lockdowns. Nor were there any lockdowns with the polio outbreak or deadly seasonal flu in the late 50s. By the time vaccinations were started in the 1960s measles fatalities were virtually unknown.
    This is a panic created by Fauci and “Chip ‘n’ Vax Gates on behalf of Big Pharma.

    • Agree: Mark G.
    • Replies: @Alvin
  19. A study shows that Asians are way more vulnerable to CO-19 than other – hu – races.

    https://www.biorxiv.org/content/10.1101/2020.07.03.186296v1

    Might help to explain why Gregory Cochran’s IFR predictions for CO-19 were too high.

  20. @SteveK9

    Correct. Number of cases (from testing) means nothing.

    The really interesting statistic is the Infection Fatality Rate.

    The CDC estimated that at 0.26% while the Swedes are seeing a rate around 0.09%.

    Seems this cold-virus is overblown.

    • Replies: @ogunsiron
    , @valdyn
  21. Alvin says:
    @Curmudgeon

    Good point, my guess is Sweden was listing any death with Covid as being FROM Covid, as Swedish doctors have broad discretion in this area and there was widespread opposition from doctors, administrators, and the press against Sweden’s relatively lax policies. They wanted to make Sweden look bad.

  22. Alvin says:
    @animalogic

    Sweden also also high percentage of African immigrants compared to Norway (and 33% population of Sweden foreign born vs 13% for Norway), and these dark skin minorities represent disproportionate share of deaths mainly due to Vitamin D deficiency.

  23. witters says:
    @John Achterhof

    He should be, but he don’t do journalism. He pulls together quotes and thinks he has discovered something. Its not a methodology, it is juvenile disorder. Equally ‘funny’ is his ‘financial reporting.’

  24. Anon[113] • Disclaimer says:

    When I saw that a 103 year old Chinese woman had recovered spontaneously after three days, and a 98 old Brit male did the same it was easy to put 2 and 2 together. 103 year olds do not recover spontaneously from a novel infection. Obviously there was cellular immunity, though at that time the possibilities skewed toward early exposure in the Chinese AO. Now it seems more likely that the virus is and has had world wide distribution for quite some time, likely generations.

    Sweden is not pushing regime change, nor does it have a revolution to suppress (Hong Kong), chronic unrest in the for of Gilets Jaunes, nor control wayward Brexit proponents. In fact, unless the government as a need to lock up its citizens there was never a need to implement any kind of controls except for the control of access to those more immuno-suppressed. Which of course did not happen in NYC or most of Calif. (exceptions were in Cal Vets old folks homes, which being VA could tell Newsome to piss up a rope).

    Nothing but a naked power grab which will eventually lead to overthrow by those groups most resistant to the propaganda, e.g. Working Class Latins

  25. ogunsiron says:
    @Dieter Kief

    I heard from Didier Raoult (French infectious disease specialist. Possibly the first to talk about HCQ in the West, back in early march) that it’s possible that children are largely immune because school age kids typically have caught several colds (!!) rather recently. He’s not saying that it’s established but worth exploring.

    • Replies: @SafeNow
  26. ogunsiron says:
    @Peripatetic Commenter

    I heard Dr Raoult state that daily (weekly) cases (positive tests) are good to follow the global evolution of a pandemic like c19. Provided your testing strategy is constant, once tested cases start going down, it means that the disease itself, in the general population, is going away too.

  27. @SteveK9

    Hong Kong (pop. 7m) has had 7 deaths.

  28. Avianthro says:

    OK, the science now looks good that the IFR is not high enough to warrant lockdowns and that the Swedish response was a good one, but back 5-6 months ago we didn’t have good science on the IFR and the prudent things to do were the things done by China, South Korea, Vietnam, and a few others to “nip it in the bud”. We are being retro quarter-backers here, second-guessers, but the game is still on and what we now know should be applied to finishing out the game…Lockdowns need to end and kids need to be back in school, and the vulnerable elderly need to be protected. Vaccines are not needed, nor will they be cost-effective.

    Sweden’s policy was good in retrospect, but really they got lucky on their SWAG (scientific wild ass guess). The US, UK, France, et alia really screwed the pooch (too slow and disorganized, unprepared in their initial reaction) and were damn lucky that the IFR wasn’t on order of the 1918 flu’s.

    Extremely important questions now remain:

    Origin of the virus and how it became a pandemic?

    Shouldn’t this epidemic, in which we got very lucky as to the IFR, be seen most of all as a warning that we need to make much better preparations and to look at what needs to be changed in order to prevent future epidemics that are likely to have much higher IFR?

    When we know what changes are needed, will we be able to implement them if they may mean nearly total transformation of our civilization? These may be things like de-urbanization, ending global air travel, shutting down the big meat industries, stopping our encroachment on wilderness zones, etc?

    • Replies: @valdyn
    , @Kratoklastes
  29. Ko says:

    Would that their solution to the Wuhan Virus also work on their leftist penchant for surrendering their very existence in favor of invading hordes of Muslims.

  30. El Dato says:

    Does “herd immunity” for such a virus even exist? Probably not, same as “herd immunity” for flu doesn’t exist.

    In a few years, we will know more.

    Sweden is not special. They have just turned the knob differently: Unforgivably cruel: Swedish directives on how to treat Covid-19 elderly have caused massive death toll

    What is also clear is that pointing out the failings is unwelcome. Scientists with relevant criticism of integral elements of Sweden’s strategy have been dismissed by the mainstream media. Instead of answering their criticism, the media has even called them nation-saboteurs.

    These academics have been forced to turn to international outlets to be heard. For instance, Professor Cecilia Soderberg-Naucler, a virus-immunology researcher at the Karolinska Institute, had to turn to The Guardian. Professor emeritus of Public-Science Epidemiology, Marcello Ferrada de Noli, had his critical opinion pieces about the treatment of the elderly published on RT.com.

    Norwegian state epidemiologist, Frode Forland, has confirmed that Swedish outlets do not seem interested in publishing in-depth critical opinions of Sweden’s strategy. He explained his experience with the Swedish media: “I’ve been interviewed by several of them, and they all ask questions about things supporting Sweden’s strategy. It feels like they want to support their own government, but Sweden is going against the entire world on this.”

    Sweden can’t even report honestly on their immigration and cultural bendover problem. Do I expect them to report honestly on a COVID-19 problem? HAH!

    • Replies: @Bro43rd
  31. Great article!
    It worries me enormously that Facebook FORBIDS to share it!!! The end of free speech is near!

    • Replies: @TomSchmidt
  32. CanSpeccy says: • Website

    It worries me enormously that Facebook FORBIDS to share it.

    That actually seems like good news. If FB now censors content, it means that it is operating as a publisher, and as a publisher FB is legally liable for everything it allows to be posted. That means, or should mean, that FB can now be sued for any libelous comments it allows to be posted.

  33. In Santa Clara County, deaths are down, cases are up:

    https://daviddfriedman.blogspot.com/2020/07/cases-vs-deaths-covid-puzzle.html

    Looks like we are well on the way to herd immunity.

  34. T-Cell immunity??
    Herd immunity reached at 10% threshold

    18 minute interview

    Freddie Sayers talks to Swedish doctor Soo Aleman about Covid-19.

    Dr Soo Aleman has been both on the front lines of the Covid-19 epidemic as a senior physician at Stockholm’s leading Karolinska hospital, and on the research side, as Assistant Professor at the Karolinska Institute and one of a group that last week published new data around T-cell immunity.

    Key quotes:

    “Intensive care units are getting empty, the wards are getting empty, we are really seeing a decrease — and that despite that people are really loosening up. The beaches are crowded, social distancing is not kept very well … but still the numbers are really decreasing. That means that something else is happening – we are actually getting closer to herd immunity. I can’t really see another reason.”

    “We found that if you have a mild case you can be negative for antibodies afterwards … in those almost all of them had strong T-cell activity. This study says that there are cases that you can have a strong T-cell response even though you have not had antibodies, meaning that you have encountered the virus and built up immunity.

  35. Bro43rd says:
    @El Dato

    Herd immunity does exist, otherwise we’d have 1918 every year. Maybe not like bacterial immunity but something of the sort. This is why vaccines work on bacterial disease & not so much on viral infection. Also much depends on the immune system function of the population. Sweden’s northern latitude(low vit d) & large senior care facilities(most vulnerable grouped together) are factors that didn’t help them as well. Overall their suffering, medical & economic, was less than most, that’s a win in my book.

    • Agree: Mark G.
  36. Gail says:
    @The Alarmist

    I like how the “theory” equates people, with a herd of cattle 🐄

  37. valdyn says:
    @Peripatetic Commenter

    Those 2 values mean different things:
    The CDC is mainly based on antibody response measurement of very specific antibodies that is only found in your blood.
    It still allows for the value seen in Sweden.

    ‘Infection’ in the typically calculated IFR is deaths divided by no. of people with blood antibodies.

    Now on top of that you can use the immunity percentages to calculate the maximum death rate if everyone is exposed.

    I end up getting something like 0.06%.

    Of course if you managed to protect *only* the people above 86 in Sweden then that value would be 0.03%.

  38. valdyn says:
    @Avianthro

    Or maybe the fact that we can calculate a disease that spreads fast and has an exponential death rate does not tell us anything about reality.

    Frankly this whole fiasco should let us rethink how we ascertain that any drastic reaction is based on reasonable knowledge instead of a calculable worst case.

    Estimating the quality of a disease asap is part of the suggested protocol of the WHO in case of a pandemy. That was done in only a few instances and the results were ignored for political reasons only.

  39. JoeMan says:
    @John Achterhof

    Read the comment above.

    “Great explanation of herd immunity with both genetic (T-cell) and acquired (from previous viruses), which covers about 80-85% already, and so we only need 15-20% infections of people without T-cell or previously acquired antibodies. There is never a reason to lockdown.

    I would also add that even without this knowledge, we know that if a virus spreads rapidly and globally, it is not very lethal, so no reason to worry. On the other hand, if virus or bacteria is very lethal, then it will wipe out the first 50-100 people it infects and die off very early without much spreading at all and before people can protect themselves – think Ebola and Anthrax. Another reason to never lockdown.”

    Ignorance is a bliss?

    • Replies: @Boll
  40. JoeMan says:
    @John Achterhof

    Read the comment above.

    “Great explanation of herd immunity with both genetic (T-cell) and acquired (from previous viruses), which covers about 80-85% already, and so we only need 15-20% infections of people without T-cell or previously acquired antibodies. There is never a reason to lockdown.

    I would also add that even without this knowledge, we know that if a virus spreads rapidly and globally, it is not very lethal, so no reason to worry. On the other hand, if virus or bacteria is very lethal, then it will wipe out the first 50-100 people it infects and die off very early without much spreading at all and before people can protect themselves – think Ebola and Anthrax. Another reason to never lockdown.”

    Ignorance is a bliss?

  41. Bill P says:

    Thanks for your efforts, Mike. Unfortunately, our governor has an authoritarian streak that is even worse than I feared when he tried to impose his carbon tax on us.

    When I read that he was going to force my youngest child, who is only six, to wear a mask in class I felt a sensation of fury build up in my chest. It’s rare that I have such a visceral reaction to the news, but that did it.

    Then, he started talking about preventing children from going to school at all. I fully expect him to keep us in the dark until the last days of summer. Working families are the lowest priority for this regime. I don’t think our struggles factor into their political calculations in the least.

    If Inslee doesn’t open the schools a lot of us will have no choice but to leave the state. It is that disruptive.

    Unfortunately, many working-class families have nowhere to go, and couldn’t afford to leave their family support behind even if they did. Some have told me they won’t send their children to schools with the restrictions teachers are demanding even if they are reopened. We are now hearing from the schools that small children will not only be forced to wear masks, but also separated from each other by partitions and not allowed to face each other. This is like some demented fantasy dreamed up by a sadist. I am really starting to despise these people.

    The effects of this lockdown on young families will last for the rest of many children’s lives, but nobody here seems to give a damn.

    As for my kids, I’m not going to let that happen to them. Time to finally say goodbye to Washington. At least I lived here in better times.

    • Replies: @Kratoklastes
  42. @John Achterhof

    Then why do new deaths keep falling while new “cases” keep rising? What’s your theory, Doctor?

    • Agree: Weston Waroda
    • Replies: @John Achterhof
  43. @John Achterhof

    Mike, I’m no virologist but I think it’s safe to say that this notion that Covid-19 has a herd immunity threshold of 10 – 20%, that you take from some bullshit site, is ludicrous. You make an embarrassment of yourself as a journalist in serving up this slop.

    Here are some people that are virologists:

    M. Gabriela M. Gomes: Liverpool School of Tropical Medicine, Liverpool, United Kingdom, and, Centro de Matemática da Universidade do Porto, Porto, Portugal; Ricardo Aguas: Centre for Tropical Medicine and Global Health, Nuffield Department of Medicine, University of Oxford, Oxford, United Kingdom; Rodrigo M. Corder: Instituto de Ciências Biomédicas, Universidade de São Paulo, São Paulo, Brazil; Jessica G. King: Institute of Evolutionary Biology, University of Edinburgh, Edinburgh, United Kingdom; Kate E. Langwig: Department of Biological Sciences, Virginia Tech, Blacksburg, VA, USA; Caetano Souto-Maior: Laboratory of Systems Genetics, National Heart Lung and Blood Institute, National Institutes of Health, Bethesda, MD, USA; Jorge Carneiro: Instituto Gulbenkian de Ciência, Oeiras, Portugal; Marcelo U. Ferreira: Instituto de Ciências Biomédicas, Universidade de São Paulo, São Paulo, Brazil; Carlos Penha-Gonçalves: Instituto Gulbenkian de Ciência, Oeiras, Portugal

    This is an excerpt from what they have written:

    Here we demonstrate that individual variation in susceptibility or exposure (connectivity) accelerates the acquisition of immunity in populations. More susceptible and more connected individuals have a higher propensity to be infected and thus are likely to become immune earlier. Due to this selective immunisation, heterogeneous populations require less infections to cross their herd immunity thresholds than homogeneous (or not sufficiently heterogeneous) models would suggest. We integrate continuous distributions of susceptibility or connectivity in otherwise basic epidemic models for COVID-19 and show that as the coefficient of variation increases from 0 to 4, the herd immunity threshold declines from over 60% to less than 10%.

    —”Individual variation in susceptibility or exposure to SARS-CoV-2 lowers the herd immunity threshold,” May 2, 2020

    Read the whole thing.

    • Replies: @John Achterhof
  44. @Avianthro

    Oh, please.

    You’ve just parrotted the Doomer variant of a typical NYTimes editorial about how invading Iraq was the right thing to do because nobody knew for certain that Saddam Hussein didn’t have WMD.

    For fuck’s sake, what’s next? That the Catholic Church was right to protect its kiddie-fuckers because nobody could be certain that the victims were telling the truth?

    Plenty of people understood that covid19 was a nothingburger – based on the published evidence as it was accumulating, and the obvious, glaring flaws in the initial ICL model.

    Given the putative starting date of the virus and the degree of international travel into the US from infected areas, a standard SEIR model using the parameters used by ICL would have meant that by Feb/March 2020 half the US population would be infected (because the spread wouldn’t have started at Patient Zero, but from thousands of Patients Zero).

    Quite apart from that, there was the observable fact (again, from the data that was accumulating at the time) that only chronically-ill elderly people were dying.

    The relative lack of otherwise-healthy victims made it very clear – as I said in March – that covid19 deaths were RBIs, not home runs: that is to say, covid19 was the final nudge that killed off chronically-ill elderly folks. This is a family tragedy for their next of kin, but for a vast majority of victims their deaths were statistical certainties in the following 12 months.

    This is further reinforced by covid19’s very high RBI rate in locations where the bases are loaded: old folks’ homes.

    This was all very easy to deduce from the data, well before lockdowns were introduced. All it took was dispassionate numeracy, rather than hysteria-mongering for fun and profit.

    There was no evidentiary basis for putting a bolt-gun to the head of the global economy – particularly in light of the excess deaths that are inevitable during periods of significant economic downturn. As people like me pointed out in April: saving chronically-ill elderly people by crashing the economy has costs measured in lives lost to suicide and stress-related mortality, and also to misery caused by family breakdowns.

    The fact that the parasite classes chose to run with a different narrative, is not a sign of incompetence on their part: it’s a sign of malevolent intent.

    • Agree: Mark G.
  45. @Bill P

    I am really starting to despise these people.

    You’re old enough to have children – how little attention have you been paying to “these people” up until recently?

    Did you spend the last 20 years in a coma or a cult?

    We are livestock to them. They have the same view of us, as the average slaughterhouse worker has towards cattle or sheep.

    • Replies: @Bill P
  46. Bill P says:
    @Kratoklastes

    It’s complicated living in a blue state. Most of your family and neighbors will be Democrats, and it isn’t normal or natural – or Christian – to despise them.

    When I leave, I’ll be doing so to protect my children, not because of hatred.

  47. Brad333 says: • Website
    @animalogic

    You’re still addicted to the media that lead us astray from the beginning. While those may be “official” figures, they are very wrong, as official figures have been wrong from the beginning.

    • Replies: @animalogic
  48. @Brad333

    Are you kidding ? ALL figures are to some degree “official”. Next time I’ll pull some numbers out of my arse, which hopefully you will find acceptable.

    • Replies: @Brad333
  49. Brad333 says: • Website
    @animalogic

    You might as well, that’s what every other progressive is doing, especially the progressive media.

  50. Awakened says:

    The author’s opinion is completely misplaced.

    The real reason why Sweden had no lockdown was because :
    1) Sweden had already embraced Cashless Society (first country in the World to go Cashless); and
    2) Sweden had already adopted the concept of microchip implants in hands of its citizens.

    These two goals are among many goals of Coronavirus.

  51. @Weston Waroda

    “…as the coefficient of variation increases from 0 to 4, the herd immunity threshold declines from over 60% to less than 10%.”

    This concept makes sense that the threshold for herd immunity is lower by naturally acquired immunity than by vaccine, as the natural course skews immunity through infection more toward those that circulate more in society. Those that have much less contact within society are of less value toward herd immunity. The question is how much lower is the effective percentage – where does a society rate on this “coefficient of variation”. An article I saw offered a rough estimate of 41% for natural herd immunity. I like the idea of letting our fantastically evolved natural defenses to viruses do its thing as it has for millions of years, rather than suspending normal life, waiting and hoping on a pharmaceutical rescue. On the other hand our brains are pretty fantastically evolved too, America’s sedentary, obese population is not well suited to this Sweden option, and a vaccine seems to be forthcoming.

    • Agree: Weston Waroda
    • Replies: @Weston Waroda
  52. @Digital Samizdat

    There does seem to be a divergence from charted fatality count tracking closely behind charted numbers of infected. In other words, the (measured) infection fatality rate is lowering. Maybe it’s because the most vulnerable to dying from it have become a smaller fraction of those getting infected. Maybe also somewhat better treatment. Perhaps most significantly, the ramped up testing includes more of those that have no significant symptoms that previously wouldn’t have known they’d been infected.

  53. @John Achterhof

    In the current panic for which a vaccine holds an answer, let’s hope it is truly effective with minimal side effects on the unhealthy obese American population. My fear is that rather it will be rushed and the usual protocols to guarantee its safety will not be followed under the tremendous pressure from the populace for the government to do something. And I also fear they will make a quicky vaccine compulsory for the entire population.

  54. I am confused at the moment.

    For example, in this paper:

    The Evidence which Suggests that This Is No Naturally Evolved Virus
    A Reconstructed Historical Aetiology of the SARS-CoV-2 Spike

    https://www.minervanett.no/files/2020/07/13/TheEvidenceNoNaturalEvol.pdf

    they make a strong argument (IMO) that SARS-CoV-2 was engineered by some people who did something.

    However, the virus is not really that deadly, compared with smallpox or other viruses?

    Was it engineered to be just bad enough to cause lots of economic damage?

    • Replies: @Michael888
  55. Excellent article! A few minor details: the T cells which seem much more important to immunity from coronaviruses than B cells (lymphocytes which produce antibodies) are probably reacting to common cold coronaviruses; SARS only infected a fairly small number of Asians in 2001-2004 (though those are still resistant to SARS-Cov2 16 years later.) SARS-Cov2 was probably a creation of Dr. Fauci and his buddies after quietly removing the 2014 Moratorium on gain-of-function experiments in bat coronaviruses in 2017. The T cells ‘memory’ seems to last longer than antibodies to SARS-Cov2 (“only” 60% of the Teddy Roosevelt aircraft carrier crew produced antibodies– with one death of 4800; will be interesting to follow up T cells in that population).
    Modellers had noted that only 20-50% of populations in different countries looked susceptible to covid-19. The T cell immunity likely explains the resistant populations (antibodies don’t see to explain it, and are uncommon in protecting from common cold coronaviruses).
    Sweden looks to be about done with the epidemic with 558 deaths per million (mostly the aged in nursing homes). NY, whose Gov Cuomo has been feted for his “incredible” job in NY state had 1,675 deaths per million. The epidemic is still running its course in the more populous states, so it’s too early to compare US to Sweden.

  56. @Peripatetic Commenter

    Gain-of-function experiments in bat coronaviruses often entail inserting a furin cleavage site, as SARS-Cov2 has but the original SARS and MERS did not have (these latter coronaviruses, though more deadly, are less contagious). The furin cleavage site allows the virus to grow much faster in human cell culture, speeding up experiments, and seems to account for its explosive contagious nature in covid-19. Gain-of-function experiments in bat coronaviruses were stopped by moratorium in 2014 due to concerns of many scientists that such experiments were dangerous and could be used in biological warfare. Dr. Fauci and his cronies quietly reversed the moratorium in 2017. The idea of having 12 nucleotides inserted into the virus seems more likely by a lab than by nature, although both are possible. There is lots of conjecture of how this could get out of a lab both by mistake or intentionally.
    The recent mutation of a single nucleotide at position 614 switching aspartic acid to glycine gave a more stable virus and was likely natural; this now seems the prevalent strain.

    • Replies: @Peripatetic Commenter
  57. Boll says:
    @JoeMan

    AIDS was lethal for a very long time. I don’t know if it’s correct to say it spread rapidly bot most certainly it spread globally. So your theory is not correct.

    It all depends on if a fatal virus kills fast or not and in the case of covid there’s also the fact that people carry the virus without being sick. Covid spread globally and it’s complete nonsense to not call it fatal. As an example there’s a distinct rise in death tolls in Sweden compared to a normal year.

  58. @Michael888

    The furin cleavage site allows the virus to grow much faster in human cell culture…

    What is the mechanism of this faster growth? Does it allow for quicker attachment to cells, quicker injection of their RNA into cells? How does it actually allow for these?

  59. And now that one of the real experts has come out in support of HCQ etc as an effective prophylaxis to be administered as soon as SARS-CoV-2 is suspected, will he be suicided?

    https://www.newsweek.com/key-defeating-covid-19-already-exists-we-need-start-using-it-opinion-1519535

  60. SafeNow says:
    @ogunsiron

    Yes, kids have had many cold viruses, and developed so-called bystander partial immunity. Also, kids were recently vaccinated for MMR. Some people in the adult senior age group are now getting MMR shots and flu shots to develop some bystander immunity. On the Theodore Roosevelt, there were many cases, but they were mild cases. The theory is that the because the Navy vaccinated sailors against MMR, the sailors were like kids.

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