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Once More Unto the Breach, Dear Friends. Covid 19, Part II.
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After a brief summer, in which we dared to hope that we could eventually go to the pub without booking a table, and without choosing our food in advance, the darling buds of May have given way to the surly scowls of September, and we are down in the dumps again.

This pandemic is testing our intelligence: it makes us assess personal risk, alter our behaviour, and do our best to understand the advice we are given. Our doctors, scientists and politicians are all facing tough tests of problem-solving ability. There are precedents, principles, methods, and a large dollop of uncertainty, so no shortage of options.

This week began with the nation’s chief science and health spokesmen telling us that cases were increasing fast, and if they continued to do so exponentially (the big IF, they conceded) then deaths would follow. It was not a prediction, they said, but I judged it was the key slide they wanted to show.

To the dismay of any data scientist, France and Spain were given as examples, rather than the two experts showing us a range of countries in Europe and elsewhere, and discussing the different trajectories. Sweden and Germany also have their stories to tell. Unless you have a strong justification in terms of matching, you should not cherry pick countries.

They explained that the case increase was not down to testing: repeated testing of care home residents showed a real increase as autumn approached. They also said that an individual’s attitude to risk was not just a matter for them, because risky behaviour by one person can lead to the virus being spread to others. Public health depends on public behaviour: risk taking individuals can be super-spreaders. The tragedy of the commons is that viruses jump from one person to the other by propinquity, not according to our personal politics.

Antibody tests suggested only 8% had formed them, but it was left unclear whether exposure to previous coronaviruses would confer any degree of general protection, even though that may be the case.

Government policy, as explained the next day by the Prime Minister, is that “a stitch in time saves nine”. I like the rhyme, but am not entirely sure of the reason. The policy has sought to be proportional to the threat. Those who can work from home, but had been encouraged to come out to eat in previous weeks, have been told to work from home again. Pubs, bars and restaurants have been told to provide table service only and, in a new departure, to close by 10 pm. One wag grimly noted that middle-aged people had been observing that practice for decades.

Face coverings, also known as masks, had to be worn in shops and all indoor hospitality settings. Covid guidelines were now legal obligations. The recently introduced “Rule of 6” (no more than 6 persons to a social group, rather than government by 6 persons, though the latter may be closer to the mark) had been “strengthened” in the following way: there could be no more than 15 persons at a wedding, but 30 at a funeral. This last injunction has caused some bemusement. I presume people are more likely to sing, dance, embrace and form new intimate relationships at a wedding than a funeral. They should have spelled out why they had chosen those different numbers.

I think that public health is better served by giving good explanations and stressing general principles. Only then should you go to specific prohibitions. The advising experts never said:

Don’t inhale other people’s exhalations.

They never set out a range of activities, rated by risk.

They never mentioned the advantages of dilution of exhalations in moving air as opposed to their concentration in enclosed, stagnant air, and what that meant in terms of prudent behaviour.

In short, they did not spell out a general principle which people could use to guide them in ambiguous settings. Specific examples without general principles are a hostage to fortune. Studies of compliance with medical advice stress that patients need to understand why they are being asked to follow certain procedures. Absent a good explanation, patients are likely to stray from strict observance.

Also, and this is a minor point, but I am a minor person, the official slides were not always self-explanatory, which is a great problem when they are being used to justify policy decisions. For example, have a look at this one.

It is very hard to see what point they are making, given that the slide was not up for long. They make the usual error of “explaining” the age groups by reference to a legend on the right which has only partly discriminable colours, and a sequence of ages which does not match the order of ages shown on the graph. How long did it take you to find which age band was rising most? Furthermore, why not use 20-year age bands, which make the general point more clearly, reducing the number of lines which need to be displayed? Also, how do they suggest that the most-highly-rising age group be managed? Are they the pub-goers?

Here is another messy one, or two messes in one slide.

How can anyone read this, and why should they? The virus is not driven by the wind, nor does it arise from the soil. Why show maps? Why not list the 10 towns of greatest concern, from highest to lowest, and say whether they were “High Rate” or “High Rising” or both? Job done. It would also identify for everyone some places to avoid.

The day after the Science and Medicine spokesmen did their double act (adroitly allowed to say their piece on their own, so it was clear that they were providing Science, not politics) the Prime Minister did his political balancing act, announcing his slight changes, with the clear implication that more will follow if the populace keeps giving the virus an easy ride.

A YouGov survey on 23 September suggests that 67% of people feel the pub curfew will not be effective, but 71% agree that a second lockdown would be effective.

I was in favour of the initial lockdown. Though implemented a bit late, it gave us all a chance to reduce the spread of the virus, manage the clinical load in hospitals, and generally buy time to find out what treatments worked, and which vaccines were worth developing. It was high cost, possibly even in terms of unintended health costs, but understandable in the circumstances. If the supreme function of statesmanship is to provide against preventable evils, then the Government tried to do that. Better safe than sorry. Dead relatives will be remembered more fiercely than national debts, and governments suffer if they don’t manage blame cleverly.

Now we are in a time of uncertainty, and the advice and exhortations are likely to change every couple of weeks. Adults should understand that we are titrating our responses to a hazard, and that even though case increases are probably not exponential, they are on an upward path. That said, it is hard to obtain commitment when the rules vary so much. Insurrection seems unlikely, but actual non-compliance will probably increase.

Hopes, once raised, are cruelly dashed, and will be hard to raise again.

 
• Category: Science • Tags: Britain, Coronavirus, Disease 
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  1. There are no experts to listen to. There are just those masquerading as knowledgeable on the topic. Everyone should hear what those that are supposed to know, but apparently don’t, have to say, but then judge for themselves how to proceed.

    The State using force to only allow their opinions to be exercised is typical idiotic behavior of the sociopaths in gov’t.

    https://www.lewrockwell.com/2020/09/allan-stevo/reminder-cdc-says-facemasks-dont-stop-covid/

  2. I’m posting variations on the following wherever I can, because I think it is critical to make the distinction between infection with SARS-COV-2 and the disease, Covid-19, which current data suggest presents in only a small fraction of those infected with SARS-COV-2:

    There is a clear distinction between becoming infected with the SARS-COV-2 virus and having any symptoms of Covid-19, let alone a serious or fatal case. Infection with SARS-COV-2 is a necessary but not sufficient condition for exhibiting symptoms of Covid-19. As an extreme illustration, the local news outlets in my area are rife with accounts of how thousands of returning college students are testing positive for SARS-COV-2. No one has seen fit to remark that very few if any of these have developed even a mild case of Covid-19.

    This pattern suggests that a very large proportion of the population has a natural immunity to Covid-19 in the sense that they are susceptible to SARS-COV-2 infection but not any serious consequences from such an infection. The data I’ve seen suggest that the proportion of the population with this natural immunity is significantly higher than 70%, perhaps even close to 90%. I suspect that such immunity to Covid-19 (not infection by SARS-COV-2) is due to some combination of genetics and prior exposure to other pathogens.

    This observation has obvious policy implications. We might well be better off, socially, economically, politically, and even from the public health perspective letting the current of SARS-COV-2 infections burn its natural way through the population. My back of the envelope calculations suggest that the end result will be a number of excess deaths not proportionally exceeding those associated with the 1968 Hong Kong Flu pandemic. Over a half century ago the world got through that pandemic without any drastic policies based solely on public health concerns.

    I have some limited expertise in this area. I’m a Ph.D. with over a quarter of a century of off-again-on-again experience conducting epidemiological analyses in various fields. My epi modeling of the spread of AIDS back in 1990 generated estimates that proved an order of magnitude better, i.e. lower, than Dr. Fauci’s early and politically motivated projections. I ended the last fifteen years of my professional life working with the title of Epidemiologist in my state’s Department of Public Health.

  3. res says:
    @Jus' Sayin'...

    This pattern suggests that a very large proportion of the population has a natural immunity to Covid-19 in the sense that they are susceptible to SARS-COV-2 infection but not any serious consequences from such an infection. The data I’ve seen suggest that the proportion of the population with this natural immunity is significantly higher than 70%, perhaps even close to 90%. I suspect that such immunity to Covid-19 (not infection by SARS-COV-2) is due to some combination of genetics and prior exposure to other pathogens.

    If this is so then the key questions are whether those people testing positive were infectious themselves at some stage, and if so how much so and for how long?

    Do we have any idea of the answers?

    P.S. As an epidemiologist how do you reconcile 70% natural immunity with a starting R0 (here R effective with 70% already immune) in the wild (i.e. no countermeasures) of 2.5 or more?

    • Replies: @Jus' Sayin'...
  4. @Jus' Sayin'...

    Thanks for your comments.

    I think it highly likely that there is a degree of immunity conferred by previous exposure to infections, and also that the severe effects are felt mostly by those with previous health vulnerabilities, of which obesity is an important contributing factor.

    If so, the increase in tested cases of the virus will not translate into as many deaths as in the first wave of infections, and this should be apparent in about 28 days time.

  5. JasonT says:
    @James Thompson

    The flu season (accompanied by its share of coronaviruses) happens every fall and spring. There is no “second wave”.

    • Agree: VinnyVette
    • Replies: @Notsofast
  6. JasonT says:

    Deaths have been and are being misattributed en masse to the virus, instead of to comorbidities, motorcycle accidents and the like.

    Deaths are happening through massive medical and political malpractice (I’m especially looking at you USA).

    Even with the misattributions, the death rate less than 0.2% and is largely confined to very old people with comorbidities.

    The PCR test being used to inflate case count is garbage as it is completely non-specific to SARS-COV-2. And, the manufacturer of the test directly states that it should not be used for diagnostic purposes.

    What were the first two things Western governments did when the lockdowns started? Answer:
    1. shovel large amounts of money to the failing financial sector.
    2. pass draconian laws.

    So my question is: Why are some people unable to understand the problem here?

    Our political structures, government bureaucracies and media have been co-opted by a small group of very reach people with the intent of culling the useless people (to them) and enslaving the rest.

  7. I wouldn’t worry; these are all just temporary indefinite emergency measures. I’m sure by this time next year we’ll have some permanent indefinite emergency measures.

    And with a precedent like this one, we can look forward to more temporary permanent indefinite emergency measures everytime two or more people sneeze without warning.

    • LOL: Stonehands
  8. res says:
    @James Thompson

    One big open question is whether the recent decreased death rate is most due to decreased virulence of the virus, different profile of victims, seasonal difference in severity, or something else. A combination of those causes is obviously possible as well.

    • Agree: Jus' Sayin'...
    • Replies: @Dieter Kief
    , @Anon
  9. If the authorities stopped poisoning the data, be confronted with consequences for the earlier poisoning of data (omission, inflation, outright lies), then, only then, it is worth throwing science and statistics at them. For now, garbage in, garbage out. For now, Covid-19 a medical non-issue, but a magnitude of a social engineering project. This methodology to proceed within power circles is not going to stir a burst of progress for humanity. Covid-19 is an experiment in social engineering, with a scope as never seen before, laterally, horizontally and vertically, bandwidth and speed of throughput, an IQ test of it´s own, as James suggested so well.

    • Replies: @xcd
  10. @James Thompson

    If so, the increase in tested cases of the virus will not translate into as many deaths as in the first wave of infections, and this should be apparent in about 28 days time.

    I suspect that this will be the case.

    Beyond immunity from previous exposure and health vulnerabilities there seems to be some evidence of inherited immunity, e.g., the gross racial disparities in Covid-19 population fatality rates. The causal path here is complicated enough that no proof either way has yet been produced but I’m suspicious of those who automatically assume that high Covid-19 death rates among, e.g. US Negroes and Amerindian populations, are due solely to higher rates of morbidities such as obesity, hypertension, COPD, and the like. Further study is needed.

    Continued study of SARS-COV-2 and Covid-19 seems to yield an unending string of surprises. I’m not firmly committed to the views I hold now. My main point is that the way the pandemic is currently reported suggests to the naive that infection with SARS-COV-2 and Covid-19 are essentially the same thing. It’s pretty clear now that they are not.

  11. @res

    Could well be. And we will never know exactly because too many factors are at play.

    There are two basic numbers I watch out for: Intensive care cases and CO-19-deads.

    CO-19 deaths are hard to determine because the question who qualifies as a CO-19 dead is hard to determine – not least since PCR tests are deficient. – German speakers may have a look at Gerd Gigerenzer’s and Walter Krämer’s site Unstatistic des Monats – PCR test – there are lots of problems with these tests.
    https://www.hardingcenter.de/de/unstatistik/unstatistik-des-monats-mai-2020-corona-pandemie-antikoerper-tests-und-ihre-grenzen

    Excess deaths are none to be seen so far in Germany, according to Peter Pflaumer/ statistician at Dortmund University.
    https://www.researchgate.net/publication/341609184_On_Excess_Mortality_from_Covid-19_in_Germany_A_Statistical_Analysis_Zur_Covid-19-Ubersterblichkeit_in_Deutschland_Eine_statistische_Analyse

    The number of people on a ventilator right now in Baden-Württemberg (11 Mio. inhabitants, southern Germany) – 20. That number is in this range for months now. The median age of those dying in a hospital with CO-19 so far is 85 years (ca. four years above the average life expectancy).

    Prof. Klaus Püschel, Hamburg/Eppendorf dissected one hundred CO-19 deads earlier this year and found that none of them had died just because of CO-19. – He gave interviews later and pointed out that he does not say, that CO-19 is no deadly threat, even though all of the deads he had been looking at had died with CO-19 as comorbidity.

    Anders Tegnell and Beda M. Stadler (virologist em. from Berne) said, that they expect the virus to become weaker over time.

    __________________________________
    Now set the teeth and stretch the nostril wide,
    Hold hard the breath and bend up every spirit
    To his full height. On, on, you noblest English
    (doctors in this world).

  12. @res

    If this is so then the key questions are whether those people testing positive were infectious themselves at some stage, and if so how much so and for how long?

    Do we have any idea of the answers?

    I agree that these are key questions. We don’t have answers although someone should take a close look at the natural experimental data provided by the isolated epidemics on cruise ships which occurred early on in the epidemic.

    P.S. As an epidemiologist how do you reconcile 70% natural immunity with a starting R0 (here R effective with 70% already immune) in the wild (i.e. no countermeasures) of 2.5 or more?

    I can’t. But I don’t trust the early data coming out of places like China, northern Italy, and New York (where Cuomo’s policy of quarantining active Covid-18 cases in facilities full of people particularly susceptible to Covid-19 probably caused many unnecessary deaths). These were all special cases. If one looks at particular populations and the pattern of growth in absolute numbers of confirmed Covid-19 morbidity and mortality, the R0 appears to be above 1 but quite low. Even more intriguing, after a short period of apparently exponential growth, morbidity and mortality both peak and then decline long before herd immunity should be achieved if R0 were much more than 1. One can explain this by hypothesizing, as I am currently doing, that Covid-19 is actually performing as a true infectious disease only in a relatively small sub-population.

    BTW, this is similar to the type of hypotheses used by those modelers who best projected the spread of AIDS early on in that epidemic.

    • Thanks: Yusef
  13. And yet, Gov. Ron DeSantis, who seems like a guy so macho that one would expect him to carry a bull on his back, has declared the state of Florida, OPEN FOR BUSINESS… lol

    • Replies: @Dieter Kief
  14. @Dr.C. Fhandrich

    Switzerland was always open for business; and the schools were closed for 10 days extra on easter holidays -and that was mostly it. Yesterday the central bank chief Thomas Jordan said, that Swiss GDP will be higher(!) than estimated in April – most likely up to 95% of 2019.

  15. @Jus' Sayin'...

    ‘…But I don’t trust the early data coming out of places like China…’

    I trust all data coming out of China. It reliably indicates what China would like others to believe.

    • Replies: @Godfree Roberts
  16. As pointed out here: https://drmalcolmkendrick.org/2020/09/04/covid-why-terminology-really-matters/

    the people pushing the panic have corrupted the meaning of the word case:

    ‘In epidemiology, a case fatality rate (CFR) — sometimes called case fatality risk or disease lethality — is the proportion of deaths from a certain disease compared to the total number of symptomatic people diagnosed with the disease.’ 1

    Note the word symptomatic i.e. someone with symptoms.

    However, now we stick a swab up someone’s nose, who feels completely well, or very mildly ill. We find that they have some COVID particles lodged up there, and we call them a case of COVID. Sigh, thud!

  17. @Dieter Kief

    Thank you, very interesting. I haven’t had the time to study these things and I am definitely a Euro-phile, totally convinced that Europe will be the center of power in the future, NOT, China.

    • Agree: Philip Owen
  18. Mark G. says:

    The chart in the article that rates activities by risk lists bars and nightclubs as the most riskiest locations. A contact tracing study in Nashville linked very few cases to these locations and found nursing homes and construction sites to be highest risk. This didn’t immediately come out and when it did there was a controversy about whether local government officials suppressed the information for some unknown political purpose.

    Whether a location is risky may have more to do with who is there rather than what activity is taking place there. Nursing homes might be risky because there are a lot of elderly people in bad health there and construction sites might be risky because a lot of poor immigrants work there. We might have had lower numbers of cases and deaths if public health officials had focused more on high risk categories of people and protecting them rather than trying to shut down places where low risk individuals come into close contact.

    • Replies: @James Thompson
  19. Oh no, it mutates! We are all doomed!

    The coronavirus is mutating — does it matter?

    Sub-head:

    Different SARS-CoV-2 strains haven’t yet had a major impact on the course of the pandemic, but they might in future.

  20. Former Chief Science Officer for Pfizer Says “Second Wave” Faked on False-Positive COVID Tests, “Pandemic is Over”

    https://hubpages.com/politics/Pfizer-Chief-Science-Officer-Second-Wave-Based-on-Fake-Data-of-False-Positives-for-New-Cases-Pandemic-is-Over

    • Replies: @Erebus
    , @res
  21. anon[316] • Disclaimer says:
    @Dieter Kief

    Switzerland was always open for business;

    Yes, agree, a Suisse I know spent some weeks in the north near the German border over the last 40 days, she reported that she stood out in the city because of her American-style masking. It is a very interesting thing, not at all obvious.

  22. TKK says:

    Sweden laughs.

    • Replies: @karel
    , @ThatDamnGood
  23. res says:
    @Jus' Sayin'...

    Thanks for your reply. Regarding early slowing, I’d be interested in your take on non-homogeneity and its effect on effective R (also the other points I raise in this comment).
    https://www.unz.com/isteve/how-high-is-herd-immunity-level/#comment-3905394

    BTW, this is similar to the type of hypotheses used by those modelers who best projected the spread of AIDS early on in that epidemic.

    The logic of that is much more obvious to me for AIDS. I think it is quite interesting that Fauci’s earlier claim to fame was claiming heterosexuals were as much at risk for AIDS as homosexuals. How can someone who makes such a boneheaded call keep climbing the ladder?

    The varying lockdowns and inconsistent levels of adherence make things hard to analyze IMHO. Not to mention all of the statistical shenanigans.

  24. My personal interpretation of the Yougov poll is that it is either totally inaccurate, or that 71% of people would like to overthrow the governmemt and Bank of England. How it is that they are convinced that it would be replacec by something better by those wishing to lock them in their homes is really mysterious though.

    • Replies: @ThatDamnGood
  25. Leftists are placing social strictures on the whole idea of people getting sick from COVID. So just like their arguments about bias against homosexual AIDS carriers, leftists are putting up horrible psychological barriers, fears, biases, and stereotypes that cause people to shun and discriminate against others only suspected of infection based on no proof whatsoever except their particular lifestyle choices. That’s bad enough, but it also prevents those who might actually have COVID from getting the help they need, because they are afraid of venturing outside, and also afraid of what people will think of them.

    So why doesn’t the government impose the same lockdowns on AIDS and HIV as they are now so eager to do on COVID?

    Only because the left is always allowed to have its cake and eat it too. Leftist hypocrisy is just another scam they use to gain power over everyone else.

  26. theMann says:

    There are only three relevant takeaways from the current manufactured crisis:

    1. Everything we see, read, and hear from the Authorities, Media , and Medical Community about “covid-19” is a God Damned Lie ( I mean that literally), and everything we continue to see, read, and hear about “covid-19” will continue to be a God Damned Lie.

    2. The Slime of the Medical community are even more corrupt, power hungry, money hungry and genuinely evil than the Politicians whose asses they oh so assiduously lick. Keep this in mind about “covid-19”: If I say “I know, I know, kill all the Jews” I am unsavory. If you go out and do it, you are committing War Crimes, Crimes against humanity, and so forth. For all of the Politicians pronouncements about lockdowns, masks, social distancing, they are just blowhards and lunatics. Those of you who actually go out and enforce, or willingly follow, those policies are cowards at best, and the moral equivalent Death Camp Guards at worst.

    3. After the Enlightenment, mass Education, the Internet, and all the other Paraphernalia of learning Civilization has built up over centuries, we now know the average American is just as much of an hysterical fool and genuinely benighted ignoramus as any medieval peasant. In reality, much, much worse, as the peasant had no learning resources, and we have a nearly infinite amount.

    This has not been fun.

    • Agree: Ugetit, VinnyVette
    • Replies: @CanSpeccy
  27. utu says:
    @Jus' Sayin'...

    “I have some limited expertise ” – Indeed.

    https://www.unz.com/isteve/how-many-covid-fatalities-died-in-the-prime-of-their-careers/#comment-4181844
    The vast majority of those dying of Covid-19 are net drains on the economy. They’re deadwood, pensioners sucking up resources that later generations will be paying for. Every such life lost is actually cost beneficial.

    Where did you get your degree? In Auschwitz?

    • Thanks: GMC, Bert
    • Replies: @Jus' Sayin'...
  28. “I was in favour of the initial lockdown…”

    You write a whole lot of double- speak here, my friend.
    Gullible, naive, foolishness- disguised as a word- salad of feigned indignation.

    I hope there is a second fake-virus lockdown that squashes the chattering classes fake virtue-signaling.

  29. anon[341] • Disclaimer says:

    @James Thompson

    it makes us assess personal risk

    It makes us asses.

    This pandemic is testing our intelligence: … alter our behaviour, and do our best to understand the advice we are given. Our doctors, scientists and politicians are all facing tough tests of problem-solving ability. There are precedents, principles, methods, and a large dollop of uncertainty, so no shortage of options.

    Funny how that was the exact template for the phony ‘war on terror’ in the wake of the alleged 911 ‘terror attacks’, the glaring scientific contradictions of which, indeed tested our intelligence and credulity. Whatever the epidemiological facts of this ‘pandemic’ – according to many experts, nothing more than a nasty global flu outbreak – it’s being leveraged by globo/corporate factions for ulterior motives. Dark is the future.

    • Agree: Achmed E. Newman
  30. Quinsat says:

    There are 3 camps.

    1) The virus is real and Govt’s are doing the best they can
    2) The virus is real and Govt’s have and are continuing to screw things up
    3) The virus isn’t real

    2) is really 1) by stealth. It’s a form of framing. (You know. ‘Massive Sale – 70% Off!’ where the original prices were 500% inflated and therefore the reduction is in fact an increase).

    Articles (like this one) which don’t begin by addressing 3) head on are at best of limited value.

    For those who may not yet have seen it, here’s the great biologist Kary Mullis describing precisely the same thing for HIV and AIDS.

    https://www.bitchute.com/video/T1JTqhr7f0Oj/

    • Replies: @Achmed E. Newman
  31. Erebus says:
    @Dr.C. Fhandrich

    I am… totally convinced that Europe will be the center of power in the future, NOT, China.

    Interesting. For now it looks like Europe doesn’t know whether its arse is punched or bored.

    Do you expect the African/Muslim/Indian/Afghani/Pakistani admixture to eventually pull it out of its death spiral?

    • LOL: Biff
    • Replies: @Dr.C. Fhandrich
  32. They also didn’t mention that deaths are at 1/20th of where they were when last time there were this many cases, and even here the statistics overestimate.

    https://off-guardian.org/2020/09/24/uks-daily-covid-deaths-didnt-die-in-one-day-didnt-all-have-covid/

    It’s still ‘at best they are incapable of admitting t have made a mistake when this thing started, or at worst this was pre planned as an excuse for the cause of the great depression round two’.

  33. utu says:

    …and generally buy time to find out what treatments worked…

    Significant improvements have been made. But they do not account for much larger drop in mortality rates in the 2nd wave (see Spain’s 1st and 2nd waves at http://www.worldometers.info/coronavirus/country/spain/).

    https://www.unz.com/announcement/31000-words-missing-from-the-atlantic-and-the-new-york-times-sunday-magazine/#comment-4160176

    And nobody can explain ridiculously low IFR in Tokyo: 0.00055% in the 2nd wave and 0.03% in the 1st wave.

    https://www.medrxiv.org/content/10.1101/2020.09.21.20198796v1.full.pdf

    Is it possibly that there is something to the ‘variolation’ by masking of the whole population hypothesis?

    Facial Masking for Covid-19 — Potential for “Variolation” as We Await a Vaccine
    https://www.nejm.org/doi/full/10.1056/NEJMp2026913

  34. Erebus says:
    @Peripatetic Commenter

    The pandemic may well be over, but I’m betting that the government reaction to it isn’t.

  35. Pearl says:
    @JasonT

    Very concisely put. I would like to broadcast your comment on a loop until it sinks into the minds of my countrymen.

  36. GMC says:

    Personally – I think the makers of this virus are still spreading it – and will continue to do so until they have their required – results. Whether they are using drones , planes , trucks , foreign embassies – or sending people across the border, in order spread it – their goal is to screw us from the top down.

  37. Tom Welsh says:

    “Unless you have a strong justification in terms of matching, you should not cherry pick countries”.

    It worked for Ancel Keys… (personally, of course).

  38. @Peripatetic Commenter

    Yep – case is not necessarily meaning ill here. That is a big semantic problem.***** It means positive test result. And a positive test result with low prevalence as it is the case right now in Austria, Switzerland and Germany (and quite a few other places I don’t know in detail and thus don’t mention) it can quite easily be the case, that almost all of the positive results are false positives. That’s why German epidemiologist Sucharit Bhakdi and doctor and medical publicist Gunter Frank from Heidelberg and Beda M. Stadler from Switzerland say for months: It’s over. And: We had no pandemic.
    Anders Tegnell from Sweden is a bit more cautious. He lately said: There are too many unknowns in the equation to say it’s over.

    ***** In a better world, without the humanities completely decapitated by the woke mindset, there would be a well respected – linguist, say, who would be heard pointing this out: We have two meanings of the word case in this discourse, and that is very confusing because we use the same word for them. So – beware!

    • Replies: @LondonBob
  39. Tom Welsh says:
    @JasonT

    “Deaths are happening through massive medical and political malpractice…”

    “Fraud” is a shorter and clearer word. I like “massive fraud”.

  40. @Dieter Kief

    I recently went to an event in Switzerland, and it was refreshing to not wear a mask, even moreso to sit directly next to someone, shake hands and even hug people, and to fill my plate buffet-style . One of my Swiss friends told me it varied from Canton to Canton, but for the most part the Swiss treated adult people like adults who could make their own decisions and take appropriate measures. I told my young colleagues I’m doing WFH this week just in case I was at a super-spreader event, but when I told one about hugging people, she wistfully said, “It’s been so long since I’ve been hugged,” to which I gave a little video-wink and said, “If you’re feeling brave, I’ll give you a hug next week.” TPTB really do seem intent on beating the humanity out of people.

    Don’t inhale other people’s exhalations.

    Yes, sit quietly, very afraid, in a darkened room with windows closed, and don’t breathe … you’ll be just fine, you worthless surplus human resource.

    This is what we’ve become in much of the “democratic” “human rights loving” West….

    • Thanks: Kali
    • Replies: @dearieme
    , @ogunsiron
  41. @Jus' Sayin'...

    Jus’ Sayin’,

    Thank you very much for this most enlightening, and eye-opening, post.

  42. It is a bit tiring and pointless the constant alarmist posting about this or that contry’s rate of SARS-COV-2 daily infections going up.

    Far more useful would be finding the data on infections, body count and, more importantly, excess deaths of a particular city such as London, Stockolm, Tokyo, Vancouver etc. so we could compare measures taken and excess deaths results.

    Interestingly enough this information is nowhere to be found.

    • Replies: @anon
  43. Sean says:

    https://blogs.bmj.com/bmj/2020/09/24/karl-friston-how-should-we-respond-to-an-upsurge-in-covid-19-cases/
    When one models what is likely to happen—in terms of viral spread and our responses to it—a plausible worst-case scenario is a peak in daily deaths in the tens (e.g., 50 to 60) not hundreds, in November. […] [P]opulation immunity augments the efficacy of physical distancing—and both make contact tracing easier […] We have already developed a substantial population immunity (around 8% in the UK) […]

    So why has the government not redeployed resources to local public health teams—or integrated testing and tracing with primary health and social care? I do not know; however, they may have discounted this “third way” after being told contact tracing has to reach unattainable levels of 80% before it will make a difference. [5] This is quantitative nonsense; exactly because of the knife edge on which we currently find ourselves. An efficacy of 25% would be sufficient to suppress viral transmission, if implemented now. [6]

    One might argue that “Two out of three ain’t bad.” This would be a dangerous argument. Population immunity and physical distancing (with partial lockdowns) create a context in which local contact tracing could prevent the virus from completing its tour of the UK

  44. Since when has it been possible to trust your government? Government lies have hardly ever been as colossal as those emitted this year concerning COVID-19. And remember, government policies are not based on “science,” but on the opinions of certain groups of scientists. Even if “most experts” agree on the issues, this is not science, because science is NOT democratic.

    How many people do you know personally that have actually died from COVID-19? I don’t mean people who are fat, diabetic, with a heart condition, or suffering from any other significant co-morbidity, but people who ONLY had COVID-19 and died from it.

    That is the only relevant question. When I ask people I meet, the answer is always: “nobody.”

    • Agree: TTSSYF, xcd
    • Replies: @Herald
    , @Achmed E. Newman
  45. @Mark G.

    Uruguay did a study of its construction workers, on building sites of different sizes, asking the workers to follow safe distancing and so on, doing pre- and post- tests and finding no cases after a month or so of work. Construction work is continuing, and a guy who runs one of the largest domestic projects sent me pictures of the 30 floor tower he is in the process of completing.

    • Replies: @Wizard of Oz
    , @Mike Tre
  46. @Peripatetic Commenter

    Cases, as you say, now tend to mean “test positive” whatever the symptoms or lack of them. It is an interesting measure in itself, but can lead to miscalculations about death rates.

    • Replies: @Wizard of Oz
  47. For those unfamiliar with the map of England, know this:
    The large island to the northeast of England is a blow-up insert of London (which isn’t really that big).

    • Thanks: dimples
    • Replies: @Biff
  48. @James Thompson

    Although not young I doubt that I would die if I caught Covid 19. Perhaps more important than deaths, except perhaps to politicians close to an election, is the prospect of various kinds of permanent damage of which increased susceptibility to Parkinson’s Disease is the scariest.

  49. Herald says:
    @Dr.C. Fhandrich

    Thank you, very interesting. I haven’t had the time to study these things and I am definitely a Euro-phile, totally convinced that Europe will be the center of power in the future, NOT, China.

    But based on absolutely nothing, except wishful thinking. Have you nothing better to do?

  50. Herald says:
    @Hans Vogel

    People dying of Covid-19 and nothing else, it likely doesn’t happen and anyway how would they actually know?

  51. @James Thompson

    We are being saved in part from the Victorian state government’s incompetence by the close ties of the local dictator to the major construction union. The union wants its members to go on working! Strikes can wait till the dictator’s party loses and the new government desperately needs the property and transaction taxes that, with luck, Chinese apartment buyers will go on paying. [Don’t turn the nose up at Chinese money. Your private school wants a new swimming pool? It could be Chinese parents who pay for it 100%!].

    • Replies: @Pericles
  52. Biff says:
    @Badger Down

    For those unfamiliar with the map of England, know this:
    The large island to the northeast of England is a blow-up insert of London (which isn’t really that big).

    Tell that to the Queen.

    • LOL: GMC
  53. @Erebus

    I can’t comment confidently on your question. I have been to Europe many many times over the last 45 years, both much of the former communist part and almost all of the Western part and one thing they have in common is a rather high I.Q. population. Eastern Europe, having had a very bad taste of communism for decades after WW2, This fact is now expressed in Eastern European nations resistance to the Western parts demands on issues like mass immigration and other nation altering projects. The Soviets did enough of that to them. Thanks for your question, it is probably the most important question facing Europe today.

    • Replies: @theMann
  54. The “pandemic” is bullshit. Call it a “scamdemic”. The “death toll” is inflated and inaccurate. Time to ignore government “experts”.

  55. @res

    How can someone who makes such a boneheaded call keep climbing the ladder?

    Political discourse is never just about factual truths. It is about power too. That’s why it made sense to differentiate the role of the politician and the philosopher (and the priest and the therapist….) And it was obviously very empowering at a given moment in time to boast even, that heterosexuals are just as much at risk to get aids as homosexuals because people feared a witch hunt for homosexuals because of aids.

    (People mix vulnerability to diseases with moral judgements (that was the point Susan Sontag was grappling with in Illness as Metaphor, for example). That’s deeply wired and thus very powerful stuff – Fauci, for whatever reason, reacted to this social truth in such a way, that the outcome helped him – up the ladder. This is nothing new too. – as I’ve pointed out at times: There are different kinds of discourses and the rational one is more ration, but socially not necessarily very effective. – Cf. J. Habermas – Theory of Communicative Action, cf. – Balthasar Gracian The Art of Worldly Wisdom (the German title is: Hand-Oracle of worldly wisdom – it tells you about the bipolarity of public discourse – it is split up between witchcraft here and rationality there – and it is not true, that much has changed since. I’d even say, that this polarity is an anthropological constant and will always have to be dealt with by us humans. The old Goethe once said: It doesn’t matter if it is right or wrong, what I say because there will always be proponents and opponents to my remarks – – – this man knew about self-reflection – – – – and about humor!

    • Replies: @nokangaroos
  56. Mike Tre says:
    @James Thompson

    I am on several different construction job sites everyday (since this nonsense began) in the Chicago area, interacting with many different crews of laborers and other tradesmen. I also don’t wear a mask even when the job site tries to mandate it.

    Nobody is sick or getting sick.

  57. Che Guava says:

    It (Corona mania) is all nonsense.

    I am surprised that James Thompson continues to believe.

    Last night, I was conversing with a homeless acquaintance, very intelligent, makes many good points, says sometimes things that I didn’t know.

    We were laughing about the weather of the weekend being called typhoon, when it is clearly just a cold front from the north.

    Some man (also maskless) I never met before stopped and watched us for a minute or so.

    He produced two masks, I said ‘I already have three’ pointing to my biz bag, with visible masks. So he gave both to my homeless friend, who received them but said ‘This is nonsense, it is only a kind of cold.’

    Perhaps I will awake coughing my lungs out from that conversation, don’t think so.

  58. theMann says:
    @Dr.C. Fhandrich

    I was going to just agree but out of options.

    The future of Europe is actually easily measured: The Catholic renewal in Western Europe, measured in Baptisms + Weddings vs Deaths, the Orthodox renewal in Eastern Europe by the same metric. A couple of thousand years of traditional civilization goes a long way in building families, communities, nations.

    And by Catholic I mean actual Catholic, not Vatican II mistakes + Francis’s putrescent heresies.

  59. LondonBob says:
    @Dieter Kief

    Here in Britain the tests are being farmed out to companies with no experience and substandard equipment due to the massive expansion in testing. The tests themselves have been made ultra sensitive with swabs samples being amplified multiple times. The number of people diagnosed with absolutely no symptoms at all suggests the number of false positives could be very high.

    I am still interested in the ethnic angle, how many white people under the age of seventy have died?

  60. Emslander says:
    @Jus' Sayin'...

    This is what all citizens in the world, except deluded Americans, understand about government officials: They always lie.

    They usually lie because it simplifies the enforcement measures they need to take. In other words, use the absolutely worst-case models for every warning, whether snowfall estimates, global warming, criminal activity, speeding, tobacco use or flu epidemic. Governments can’t actually force you to stay home. They can only use example or warning, like throwing a grandma without a worthless mask on the ground and cuffing her. Graphs and videos are not intended to educate, but to instill irrational fear.

    Every citizen of the Soviet Union knew that it was best ignore their government in essential matters, if you could get away with it. Americans are beginning to learn.

  61. Coronavirus is a means to an end, and there is a schedule. The Plutocratic Oligarchs and their minions will make you follow their program until their goals are achieved, or you are destroyed, or they are removed.

    • Agree: Agent76, xcd
    • Replies: @Agent76
  62. @Quinsat

    1) The virus is real and Govt’s are doing the best they can
    2) The virus is real and Govt’s have and are continuing to screw things up
    3) The virus isn’t real

    I’m not in any one of these 3, Quinsat.

    4) The virus is real, I have enough perspective to know this outbreak is not anything worse than a bad flu year, the governments have indeed been screwing things up, but the latter is not the problem. The problem is that they are making it mandatory to listen to their varied and contradictory theories, pronouncements, and edicts.

    There you go, put me in camp (4), no, not literally in Hoaxers Camp 4.

    The author here, Mr.Thompson, is a perfect example of a government sack-hanger who thinks Americans’ lives should go according to the edicts determined from the crack research done by our elite scientists. I’ve lost all respect for you, Mr. Thompson, after this post of yours. You may know epidemiology, but you’ve got no commons sense. Common sense matters too.

    • Agree: gavishti
  63. @Hans Vogel

    Mr. Vogel, I meet a lot of people, as I’m still working and getting around. I have not met ANYONE who KNOWS anyone who has died of the COVID-one-niner. I know people who know people who’ve gotten a case of it, but they were all fine. I know friends who reckon they’ve already had it because they “felt a bit sick last week” and were told (of course 2 weeks after the fact, cause symptoms take a while to show) that they had worked with someone who tested positive.

    Commenter Digital Samizdat here on unz put this my favorite way, and I hope I’m not screwing it up. “If this were the Black Plague, we wouldn’t have been discussing for the last few months whether this is the Black Plague or not.”

    Now, I will have to do this again, as it never gets old:

    • Thanks: Wizard of Oz
    • Replies: @Hans Vogel
    , @xcd
  64. Dead relatives will be remembered more fiercely than national debts

    The lockdown is causing far more deaths than Covid.

  65. Saggy says:
    @Jus' Sayin'...

    This observation has obvious policy implications. We might well be better off, socially, economically, politically, and even from the public health perspective letting the current of SARS-COV-2 infections burn its natural way through the population.

    A PhD and still an idiot.

  66. @Achmed E. Newman

    Granted that the number of premature deaths resulting from Covid 19 doesn’/ look like justification for the lockdowns influcted almost everywhere there remains the big unknown of lasting damage done by the infection. The most striking to my mind is the likelihood that it will have the same effect as the Spanish flu did in increasing the incidence of Parkinson’s Disease in the 1920s. Have you considered that?

  67. @anon3250849

    More deaths, more economic ruin, more family problems, more family arguments (Exhibit A here), more riots errr, peaceful protests, more you name it. What can’t the Kung Flu Do?!

  68. @Wizard of Oz

    Have you considered that?

    Nope. Why should that be considered when it hasn’t been been for all the other of these respiratory diseases out of the Orient over the years? What is special about this one? Is there real evidence, with a theory of the mechanism involved, of long-term damage? I tend to think that any of that is just more scare tactics. Have you got links to any real evidence of this?

    If there were such a long-term affect, is the postponement of the spread of the virus via this masking/social distancing bullshit going to help? It it about waiting for the vaccine? Will you take it when it comes out, Wiz?

    • Replies: @Wizard of Oz
  69. This personal anecdote demonstrates what I believe to be the problem here.

    In the 70s, the California legislature made noises about ‘socializing’ medicine, of which nothing ever came, obviously. But the debate raged and I wanted to get an idea of what our young and soon-to-be medical leaders’ various opinions were on this issue.

    I was attending law school at a very prominent California university, ranked as one of the ‘Top Ten’ law schools in the US. Likewise, the medical school was also a top ten institution. My apartment’s location made me walk through the medical school at least four times a day, and I saw countless young men and women in their scrubs and whatnot, and so I decided to conduct an informal poll.

    I simply asked these med students how they would react to socialized medicine.

    Every single one, with no exceptions, made very, very clear they would immediately quit the profession if they were not able to get vastly wealthy from their medical practice.

    I have seen nothing since then that would cause me to believe anything other than medical greed is getting infinitely worse, devolving into the psychopathically selfish attitudes of today’s medical ‘leadership’.

    This link says much about vaccines, safety and medical greed so utterly evil it is unfathomable to ordinary people: https://www.sott.net/article/441951-What-you-need-to-know-about-the-Act-of-1986-Interview-with-Dr-Andrew-Wakefield

  70. Agent76 says:

    Sep 17, 2020 Amandha Vollmer: Healthy People Do Not Carry Disease

    July 4, 2020 at Gerald Celente’s garden in Kingston, NY

    [MORE]

    Sep 18, 2020 Most Or All Of The Positives Are False

    The former chief scientific advisor to Pfizer says most or all of the COVID-19 positives in the UK are fake. Tyranny and lockdowns based on junk science. In other words – the same as the climate scam.

  71. @res

    I haven’t thought as deeply as you clearly have about how the percentage of infected needed to achieve herd immunity might be impacted by the heterogeneity of susceptibility to infection and disease in different sub-populations. This is a more complicated problem than I’m ready to or perhaps even capable of tackling in my retirement years. I do think that the issue complicates policy making. My intuition, like your thinking, is that such heterogeneity probably reduces the proportion needed to achieve herd immunity.

    But we know so little about SARS-COV-2. Too little to make informed public health policy, particularly when that policy has had disastrous impacts upon the economy, social order, and even mortality from other causes than Covid-19, e.g., drug OD deaths, suicides, deaths from unavailable medical treatment, and the like. I am concerned that infection does not necessarily create life time immunity to reinfection. This may be an even more serious problem if an original infection sets up a situation where re-infection might cause a serious case of Covid-19, e.g., some kind of dangerous over-reaction of the immune system.

    Two more concerns: No one has yet developed a vaccination against a Coronavirus virus that has proven safe and effective when widely administered. We cannot indefinitely continue current public health policies for dealing with SARS-COV-2.

    • Replies: @res
  72. CanSpeccy says: • Website
    @res

    How can someone [i.e., like Fauci] who makes such a boneheaded call keep climbing the ladder?

    Change “bone-headed calls” to “politically motivated lies” and you’d have an answer.

    • Agree: Jus' Sayin'..., res
    • Replies: @Jus' Sayin'...
  73. Covid 19 is the biggest scam that has ever been pulled off on the world, even bigger than the zionist scam of their central banks, and so the zionists have outdone themselves with this covid 19 scam, lie and psyop, they have done a mind control program on billions of people with an imaginary virus, who would have thought they could pull it off.

    Zionists are destroyers of nations and humanity, it is what they do, it is in their DNA.

  74. Agent76 says:
    @ploni almoni

    Good and accurate post and gain more insight in this with Gates himself talking about his goals for medicine.

    Aug 14, 2020 Bill Gates : Reduce World Population With New Vaccines

    In this Ted Talk, Bill Gates says CO2 causes ecosystem collapse, and top scientists tell him we have to get CO2 emissions down to zero. He then goes on to say that we need to reduce population, and we can use new vaccines to do that.

  75. CanSpeccy says: • Website
    @theMann

    the peasant had no learning resources, and we have a nearly infinite amount.

    That’s not the point.

    The peasant was exposed to no propaganda other than that from the village priest. Today the poor ignorant fool is subjected to state dictated and controlled “education” plus the option of “higher education” and even “post-graduate education.” How the Hell could anyone know anything after that, even assuming that they steadfastly avoided the MSM and big-tech controlled social media.

    No, we are doomed by a technology of mind control in the hands of a ruthless plutocratic elite.

    • Agree: xcd
  76. “Epidemiological Studies”

    the ultimate in hoax “scientisms”

    the magic of DATA.

    all these projections are crap and intended to do a few things.

    cover up the epidemic of vaccination injury worldwide.

    help usher in the technocracy super state or ONE WORLD ORDER of agenda 21 agenda 2030

    sustainable development world order and technocracy worldwide.

    you should probable repent and get right with the lord…the LOF is going to be yuge!

  77. @utu

    I actually started out my professional life as an actuary before switching to demography and epidemiology. My degree is from an Ivy League university. I’ve done a fair amount of cost benefit analyses over the course of my career, involving estimates of the present value of a human life.

    Keeping an older person, such as myself, alive at a point where they are no longer contributing to the economy but are sucking up resources, such as Social Security benefits, Medicare payments, government and private pensions, and the like imposes real costs on other people. In my case, if I consider my SS benefits, Medicare benefits, and state pension and health care benefits this comes to an annual amount approaching $70K – $80K per year. This amount will go up as I grow older.

    Eventually, someone else is going to be paying for this. I won’t because I’m not putting any resources back into the economy. My friends and relatives seem to enjoy having me around but someone else will eventually pay for their current enjoyment.

    When people like myself die the costs to society are reduced. This is reality. A reality which some Millenials, Gen-Xers and Gen-Yers are beginning to appreciate as they contemplate the enormous debt burden aging Baby Boomers like myself are racking up and which future generations will pay for in one way or another.

    If your snark is not deliberately disingenuous it is profoundly ignorant and stupid.

  78. @utu

    One explanation I have seen discussed, some people have T cells primed to fight this Coronavirus due to prior exposure to a similar Coronavirus.

    Another factor, the Japanese drink a lot of green tea, which acts as a zinc ionosphere which helps the immune system fight off Coronavirus. And they have much lower rates of obesity and diabetes than Europeans.

  79. @CanSpeccy

    Even back then the homosexual lobby exercised quite a bit of political clout. They wanted public attention focused away from the fact that it was primarily homosexual sexual practices that spread a disease which was causing terror in the general population. Fauci has always been more a political animal than a scientist. He saw the best way to advance his career and he took it.

    If one reads between the lines in Randy Shiltts’s history of the AIDS epidemic, “And the Band Played On” (https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/And_the_Band_Played_On), one sees that homosexual lobbying played a major role in how that epidemic was initially addressed. This lobbying kept San Francisco’s bath houses, a major source of infection, open and delayed protection of blood banks from AIDS tainted blood. Fauci’s ridiculous epidemiological models were just another example.

    • Replies: @Dieter Kief
  80. dearieme says:
    @James Thompson

    “the severe effects are felt mostly by those with previous health vulnerabilities, of which obesity is an important contributing factor.” So we’ve been told for months, but just recently I saw a claim that obesity adds seriously to the risks for people under age 65 but not for those older.

    Is that true? Is it even plausible? Dunno x 2. I wonder just how much info we have that is copper-bottomed. That it’s geezers for whom it is most deadly, and especially ill geezers, seems to be entirely well-founded. What else?

    • Replies: @res
  81. @Jus' Sayin'...

    But didn’t aging boomers paid for all of it when they were working? Part of the salary went into the social safety nets.

    High health care cost is also not the fault of the aging boomers. That is on the politicians and health insurance lobbyists.

    If the money is gone because of wanton govt spending, that is still not their fault.

    So, instead of fixing health care, fixing the govt, we should let them die? Even though they already contributed their share?

  82. @Jus' Sayin'...

    Patrick Cockburn draws some useful parallels between SARS-COV-2 now and the Polio virus before the SAlk vaccine: https://www.unz.com/pcockburn/britain-will-seek-herd-immunity-covertly-or-by-default/

    • Thanks: res
  83. dearieme says:
    @The Alarmist

    Little good may come out of this epidemic, but a lessened risk of being hugged without permission would be welcome.

    • Replies: @The Alarmist
  84. @anon3250849

    And the media, or at least some of them, are now starting to carry this info:

    https://www.dailymail.co.uk/news/article-8774177/Lockdown-UK-Thousands-excess-deaths-people-stayed-away-hospitals.html

    The lockdown saw a devastating increase in the number of people dying at home from heart attacks and strokes, a major study reveals.

    However, some of the articles about this are seemingly trying to confuse people and imply that the excess deaths were due to Covid-19.

  85. @Astuteobservor II

    But didn’t aging boomers paid for all of it when they were working? Part of the salary went into the social safety nets.

    You simply do not understand the way the US Social Security System works.

    The tax you pay is not for your future SS benefits, it is for those who are currently on social security. Those of us who are still working must simply hope that the system is still around when we need it and those still working do not have the balls to eliminate the tax or destroy the system.

  86. @dearieme

    If it is unwelcomed or unwanted, it isn’t a hug… it’s a grope.

    • Replies: @dearieme
  87. @Achmed E. Newman

    Thanks! With evil in charge of supine, stupid, venal and otherwise incapable politicians worldwide, with incessant brainwashing and almost universal censorship, the only defenses one can turn to are ridicule and a kind of communication guerilla.

    I like to combine the two: when meeting friends or family I raise my arms to heaven in joy while exclaiming: “Thank God you are alive! I am so glad to see you alive and well. I have been so afraid, so afraid that COVID might have killed you, but here you are, and you are not dead.” Most will not know how to react and merely produce a hesitant smile.

    But next time they switch on the TV or read the news, they will remember my joke. And then, hopefully, reason will slowly clean up the portions of their brain soiled by government propaganda.

  88. res says:
    @Peripatetic Commenter

    Thanks. I agree with much of what Dr. Yeadon says, but I think he is underestimating the potential seasonality of COVID-19. The only nod to this I saw was:

    Yeadon said in the interview:

    “Were it not for the test data that you get from the TV all the time, you would rightly conclude that the pandemic was over, as nothing much has happened. Of course people go to the hospital, moving into the autumn flu season…but there is no science to suggest a second wave should happen.”

    • Replies: @TheTrumanShow
  89. canspeccy says: • Website
    @Peripatetic Commenter

    The tax you pay is not for your future SS benefits, it is for those who are currently on social security.

    That is how it has always been and always will be. Those who work carry on their shoulders those who do not. In hard times priorities change: babies may be eaten and old folks pushed out of the igloo — that is why the elderly should strive still grow a garden and seek to make themselves rich by making their wants few.

  90. anon[112] • Disclaimer says:
    @Moonshiner

    Interestingly enough this information is nowhere to be found.

    Because they can’t fake death rate data. If population death rates were published monthly, I’m betting it would be well within the average spread. The data being shrieked in the MSM is positive returns from test results, which tell you that x number have been infected with a common virus. The more tested, the more positive results – cause for continued hysteria.

  91. Notsofast says:
    @JasonT

    But we have to have a second wave because bill gates has so decreed it. He could barely contain his glee as he did. Think he knows something we dont?

    • Replies: @karel
  92. res says:
    @Jus' Sayin'...

    Thanks. One small addition. I am referring to both “heterogeneity of susceptibility to infection and disease in different sub-populations” and heterogeneity in social connectivity (and social practices like hugging). One can argue the latter can be lumped in with the former, but I think separating them is helpful.

    One reason for my thinking that is basic susceptibility is probably closely coupled with vulnerability to the more severe outcomes. While social connectivity is if anything probably negatively correlated to vulnerability. This has consequences for thinking about the effect on the effective R and for the possibility of intentionally immunizing people (either through variolation or vaccine) in an effort to reduce super spreaders.

    • Replies: @Jus' Sayin'...
  93. Anon[165] • Disclaimer says:
    @Jus' Sayin'...

    “ This pattern suggests that a very large proportion of the population has a natural immunity to Covid-19 in the sense that they are susceptible to SARS-COV-2 infection but not any serious consequences from such an infection.”

    At this point, the important number is not fatality rates or transmission rate. It is the number of hospitalizations.

    We know that, of those who get Covid19, around 20% will need hospital care. Of that 20% in a hospital setting, very few will die, surely the “dead wood” anyway. The thing is, if hospitals are full, that 20% starts looking pretty dire, wouldn’t you agree?

    What percentage of people who yearly get the flu are likely to need hospitalization?

    Forget about numbers. People rationalize their bias w numbers. Why can’t we envisage a common sense policy?? Say masks + economic activity + ban on big events + personal responsibility for others?

  94. @Astuteobservor II

    So, instead of fixing health care, fixing the govt, we should let them die?

    I’m not suggesting a policy that “let’s people die”. I am saying that the net cost to society of deaths from Covid-19 is negative, i.e. the net cost of these deaths is actually a saving of tens, perhaps hundreds, of billions of dollars. This is a reduction in the debt that we are loading onto future generations. In that strictly economic sense it is a good thing.

    Even though they already contributed their share?

    No one has ever contributed their fair share to either the so-called Social Security Trust Fund or the so-called Medicare Trust Fund. Both of these, as they are currently operated and as they’ve been managed in the past, are Ponzi schemes, shifting the burden of current benefit payouts onto those yet to receive benefits. Anyone who is at all aware of the annual actuarial report on Social Security and Medicare knows this. Both Trust Funds will be empty within the decade, even using current government accounting practices; practices which would be serious felonies if practiced by the trustees of any private pension plan. Social Security and Medicare could be salvaged but the resulting pain will be severe and the political will is lacking.

    I’d like to make one additional point: Current policies for dealing with SARS-COV-2 and Covid-19 have imposed tremendous, incalculable costs on society. They have placed intolerable burdens on an already severely stressed economy. They have wrought social havoc, fraying fundamental ties within local communities, particularly small business and educational relationships. They have contributed to the social chaos destroying central urban centers and playing out almost nightly on our television screens. They may have caused more deaths from despair, stress, limited access to critical health care, and other precipitating factors than they’ve saved deaths from Covid-19.

    But worst of all these policies were created in a panic and with an extreme lack of knowledge about what we are dealing with. This lack of knowledge persists although it has gradually decreased. So too have the bad policies based on this lack of knowledge persisted. The politicians and bureaucrats who jury rigged these are now doubling down on them. We should forgive them their first panicked reactions. We cannot afford to continue forgiving them their current failures.

    Finally, I suggest that anyone who is interested in this thread should read https://www.unz.com/pcockburn/britain-will-seek-herd-immunity-covertly-or-by-default/, an insightful comparison of the pre-Salk vaccine Polio epidemics with the current SARS-COV-2/Covid-19 pandemic.

    • Replies: @Astuteobservor II
  95. sally says:
    @Jus' Sayin'...

    why is no one looking at the actual infection process itself?

    basically the S protein on the virus jumps to, and binds to, the outer membrane of the human host cell and causes an inplace local vibration that opens (makes a pore through the outer membrane, the lipid inner contents to the inner membrane of the human cells <=still infection has not happened.. next the virus slips into the cell
    now that is infection.. and post infection activity of the virus inside of the virus infected cells amounts to virus gobbling of the relevant cell contents and using that to replicate itself (200 to 400 copies per cycle), then signals are sent to the cell machinery that set it on the path toward apoptosis.. whereupon the cell burst and the replications are dispersed into the intracellular spaces and fluids.. where upon the replied virus particles no longer need to gain entry into the body from outside (that is no damn mask is going the replicated virons from infecting the rest of the cells in your body, ) ..but not all cells are infect-able, only those that have Receptors..
    and in fact only those with Receptors of certain type.

    Recall that the external (outside of the human body) virons must somehow get inside of the human body, <= once a vrion (virus particle) find its way into a human <=it must still find an infectable cell <=once the invading viron finds a human cell <=the S particle on the outer shelf of the virus must be split into two parts.
    S1 and S2.. S1 attacks ACE-2 Receptors (and a few other receptors as well<but this discussion is limited to ACE-2 Receptors, which protrude from these infectable cells)..

    once the ACE-2 Receptor is entangled by the S1 protein, S2 goes to the outer membrane of the infectable cell and attaches to that outer membrane and does its dance, to force open a pore, through which the virus transcends.

    Now that is infection.. but look at this patent it does the same thing..

    So what is the science. Articles 1) Remote activation of cellular signaling 2) Electric Fields stimulate genetically modified pancreatic B cells 3. electronic energy is used to program cellular behavior(like open a channel in a membrane) see… 29 May, 2020 p. 937-39 Vol 36 Issue 6494 of Science.

    Beyond recent literature a EU Patent application [EUPA] EP 0710718A1.. published 08.05.1996 Bulletin 1996/19 application number 95115195.0 filed 5.10.1988 the application number of the earlier application in accord with Art. 66 EPC:88909944.6 published 8.05.1996 bulletin 1996/19 application number 95115195.0 date of filing 05.10.1988 which paragraph 54 claims it owns a patent on a “Method of, and apparatus for, cell poration (makes holes in cells) and cell fusion using RF generated electrical pulses..” (my lab experience confirms transporting items through membranes by electral or optical means is standard practice).

    Line 55 of the EUPA says the patent applied for<= is a method for the poration (make holes in cell membrane) and fusion of cells using RF electrical pulses The alternating electric field induces cell congregation… the RF porates or fuses with .. very high efficiency.. animal cells, human cells, plant cells, protoplasts, erythrocyte ghosts, lipsomes, vesicles, bacteria and yeasts.

    the EUPA says: the method has the unique ability to porate or fuse cells in very small or very large (like pandemic size) numbers.
    Further "During these prorations or fusions, ..a variety of chemical agents, including DNA, RNA, antibodies, proteins, drugs, molecular probes, hormones, growth factors, enzymes, organic and inorganic chemicals can be introduced into these cells.. and new biological species can be produced.. ”

    There is bunches of literature that suggest RF is a catalyst to membrane disruption, yet, all I hear, is wear a mask and gloves. Information blackouts invite conspiracy theories because the propaganda that promotes virus in pandemic quantities is a natural risk to human survival is highly suspect in todays modern environment. Especially suspect is that at a time when Viral Pandemic is the center narrative around the globe little about infectivity is discussed? Why ..? Thank you for the video.

    Give me some money so I reestablish my lab and I will develop some answers to the question does
    electromagnetic force at any frequency and intensity [including that delivered by RF (i.e. cell towers and wireless communications apparatus) enhance corona virus particle infection probability both from outside of the body to inside and as a replicated viron already inside of the human body.

    When viri particles gain infection entry into human host cells by membrane disruption (poration) enhance the probability that an external viron will succeed to infection? Is there a difference in infection rate, method or whatever between viron from the wild, and those produced by virons inside of a body that already has infected cells? Does RF (electromotive force at any frequency and intensity enhance), catalyze the infection probability or rate for internally generated circulating virons seeking yet another infection susceptible cell to infect, at the same rate as those virons from the wild. Does RF increase not only the likelihood that invasion membrane disruptions can occur, but also increase the probability that an already circulating replicated viron can find and infect a next cell victim within the same human person.

    Infection is the process we need to stop. There is no need for a vaccination ( a shot) that must wait on an infection to happen before it can, if it is able, stop the onset of viral infection.

  96. res says:
    @dearieme

    There is a battle in the research literature about this. Some maintain that the effect being observed is caused by sick people losing weight (e.g. cancer) rather than the reverse.

    A related issue is increased mortality rates for low-normal BMIs and relatively low mortality rates for “overweight” BMIs in general. (I think older people tend to dominate the mortality statistics, so this might just be the same as the effect you note).

    If you search for BMI in my comments you can see more about this, but there are many comments to wade through. Here is an example.
    https://www.unz.com/jthompson/the-eat-less-diet/?showcomments#comment-2540560

    Here is something from Harvard:
    https://www.hsph.harvard.edu/nutritionsource/obesity-study/

    FWIW, my inclination based on the history of Harvard nutrition pronouncements is to believe the opposite of what they say in many cases. One example is Fredrick Stare and sugar.
    https://www.statnews.com/2016/09/12/sugar-industry-harvard-research/

    • Thanks: dearieme
  97. @Dieter Kief

    Sickness IS moral judgment – that´s the Way of the Herd.

    (and I say that in a decidedly non-judgmental way 😛 )

    • Replies: @Dieter Kief
    , @Wielgus
  98. Anon[165] • Disclaimer says:
    @res

    Add much better treatment. I live in Mexico, where the disparity between public and private hospitals is horrendous. The socialist government has torpedoed the already weak public health system, so you get 80% Covid deaths. Relatives are told to avoid those hospitals because they won’t get treatment anyway. In the private hospitals, deaths are almost nil.

    Anecdoctical evidence also suggests less virulence. But I wonder if it’s a perception issue, because other news have supplanted the nonstop pandemic coverage.

    • Agree: res
  99. @Hans Vogel

    I just came back from the coffee shop where I meet friends and sit outside for an hour or two. The one guy, well, we all think the same on this, has pushed the policy of putting a mask on to go in and get his coffee and sandwich to the limit.* They know him by name, and I noted last time the lady admonished him to “Jim, put the mask all the way on before you come in.”

    Now, to reply to your point, Hans, I agree with you and my friend completely. I push it till people are exasperated, because I’m tired of the stupidity. Ridicule is good. I’ve been known to remark numerous times out loud about “all these people looking like retards out here”*.

    Back to the coffee house, well, the young lady banned my friend for the day after he didn’t do things quite per protocol again. He went 100 yards away and got an expensive sandwich and coffee at another place and brought it over to where we sat outside the first place.

    I enjoyed your description of your method of ridicule. Thank you, Hans!

    .

    * Please peruse the following mostly humorous posts on “Scene from the Kung Flu Summer Fall re-Panic” – – Part 1, Part 2, Part 3, Part 4*, Part 5, Part 6, Part 7, Part 8, Part 9, Part 10. Part 11. and Part 12, and, lucky Part 13, being much more upbeat – a day at the park with loads of kids, parents, one old guy with a dog, and nobody in sight wearing a face diaper! Oh, I always warn readers (only cause it gets me more hits) that Part 4 is not exactly safe for work** due to a picture of a young lady wearing nothing but face masks. (Yeah, go ahead and click. You know you wanna’.)

    ** unless you are working from home and the wife isn’t.

  100. MOG says:
    @res

    Q: “How can someone who makes such a boneheaded call keep climbing the ladder?”
    A: He solicited and obtained funding from the Gates foundation for his projects. He who pays the piper, calls the tune.

  101. @Hans Vogel

    BTW, I do try to be more friendly about it many times and not just cause trouble. If someone tries to do this elbow-bump crap, I’ll just shake his hand. If he seems un-cool about it, I’ll go “well, too late now – you’re a dead man walking” or something like that. Haha!

  102. @Peripatetic Commenter

    But they have already paid for their share. They are entitle to it.

    You cannot argue away their right to the share of the SS.

    • Replies: @Hootsman
  103. @Jus' Sayin'...

    You are saying their deaths are good for the economy and a net positive for the society in the financial sense. That is exactly what the former PM of Japan said to the old in Japan when he became PM the second time.

    That is cold.

    I would not want to be a part of that. Makes me glad I am capable of taking care of my parents and my self in old age.

    I wouldn’t want to leave my self at the mercy of that.

    About economic pains. 6 weeks of full quarantine or just forced mandatory mask wearing for 3 months would have done the job too. Superficial lock downs is what is causing the economic pains. When the wound is healing, you don’t tear open the scab to make it worst. Why are we doing this with the superficial lock downs?

  104. dearieme says:
    @The Alarmist

    A nice distinction: thank you. I shall use it once we’re back in the world of promiscuous hugging.

  105. COVID is a planned attack to sicken, vaccinate, steal, control, and kill a whole bunch of us — and you criticize their graphs!

    I’d like the last 10 minutes of my life back.

  106. canspeccy says: • Website

    Makes me glad I am capable of taking care of my parents and my self in old age.

    That’s nonsense, unless you intend working to the last day of your life. At some point you are going to be dependent on others for every humanly produced aspect of your survival and welfare.

    In old age you will likely be incapable of taking care of either your parents or yourself. Yes, you may have financial assets or a pension, but they are mere artifacts that translate to food, and shelter, and hospitals, and medicine only by virtue of social contracts. But contracts are mutable, dissoluble, or can simply be swept aside, for example by a Weimar- or Zimbabwean-style inflation, a Communist, aka BLM, takeover, or the devastation of war.

    • Replies: @Astuteobservor II
  107. canspeccy says: • Website

    James Corbett likens Covid19 to 9/11, calling both a psyop, the first to introduce the security state, the Patriot Act, X-ray screening at airports, etc., the latter to justify the institution of the biosecurity state, mandatory vaccination, computer chipping and the introduction of Chinese-style social control through a social credit system that determines your freedom to travel, your access to banks, even your ability to buy food. Is that not a reasonable explanation for the otherwise extraordinary failure of government to provide the public with useful information about Covid19.

    For example:

    The absurd failure to distinguish between a case, i.e., an illness as defined by symptoms, and a positive result on a test for the presence of the Covid19 virus that has a significant to ridiculously high, but publicly unstated, false-positive rate;

    The failure to differentiate between “cases” and deaths as measures of the progress of an epidemic, hence the lying claims about a second or third wave, when the death rate has fallen to barely above zero, meaning that the epidemic, except to the propagandists, is over.

    The refusal of governments acknowledge the huge cost of lockdowns in harm to mental health, and in excess deaths due to multiple causes including suicide, and restricted access to hospital.

    In my misspent youth I worked for three governments, during which time I saw enough of top bureaucrats to realize that thought they may not all be Sir Humphreys, they are far too bright to preside over a Boris Johnson, or Justin Trudeau’s Covid ballsup without intent.

  108. anon[163] • Disclaimer says:

    The millennial who runs a local coffee & muffin shop has become rather cynical. Discussing our gubernator’ s diktats he observed “This won’t stop until the first week in November, and then….”.

  109. Bill Meyer says: • Website

    In all the drama of SARS Cov-2/Covid-19, I truly wish more attention were given to the overfed yet malnourished typical American. Doctors often treat the infection with HCQ, plus Vitamin D and zinc supplementation. I’m not a doctor, but have read so much research indicating how a large percentage of Americans suffer ultra-low levels of Vitamin D, (especially in fall/winter) in addition to low levels of Vitamin C, Zinc, Selenium, and other trace minerals known to boost immune function. Blacks often have lower Vitamin D levels due to higher melanin content in the skin reducing natural D creation. (Possible explanation for higher Covid rates?) Still, little is said about staying healthy. The establishment pins its hopes on pumping a vaccine into billions, with multiple billions of mulcted tax dollars going to the pharmaceutical industrial complex.

    • Agree: Mark G.
  110. anon[163] • Disclaimer says:

    Here’s a big roundup of situations. Not too much gaslighting, but there is a quote from Fauci.

    https://www.msn.com/en-us/news/world/new-york-cases-top-1-000-first-time-since-june-virus-update/ar-BB19qOWa?ocid=Peregrine

    New York has more cases. Europe has more cases. Italy says no 2nd lockdown. France has decline. Netherlands has increase. Denmark to start intensive testing. Poland cases up. Cases up in Hungary.

    Rwanda loosening restrictions. China limiting seafood imports.

    Health minister of Victoria, Australia, steps down….

    Protestors in London and other places.

  111. @Jus' Sayin'...

    And the band still plays on – in the old vein. In a way, the Faucis won.

  112. @nokangaroos

    Since suffering has no undisputed place**** any longer, the game is up to look out for the victim as soon as suffering occurs.

    **** just to remember this: In Pietism, a socially accepted proteestant way of reacting to suffering, it was once clear for the true believers, that the Lord above blessed the sufferers with the task to take the burden – in order to enable them to prove their faith. Old people were seen in the streets of Stuttgart frightened whether God might have forgotten them because they felt that they had so little to suffer from lately…

    Now I contrast this – mentality – with the current mindset, for which – obesity, for example, does not hint at any kind of personal responsibility, but at the fact of societal oppression – which for person x and y is so cruel, that they just have no choice – they are forced into overeating and stuff… – they feel therefore entitled to compensation-payments from society, just because they are so obese, to give but one example.

    These are the sociopsychological dynamics of the social state. This entity more and more fills the hole, in which – God used to reign, not long ago. A task which can’t be fulfilled with earthly means. Unfortunately, though, the social state turns out to be very material and not spiritual at all. The gap between wishes and realities thus can’t ever be closed, it just goes on and on – a Perpetuum mobile of frustration, unhappiness, and dissatisfaction. A wonder of sorts (I’m circling, I know….).

    • Replies: @nokangaroos
  113. @Achmed E. Newman

    I shall certainly accept the vaccines – maybe plural – even if I have been able to receive earlier short term protection from monoclonal antibodies. (I recently had my pneumonococcus free vaccination topped up with the now recommended one for children).

    My Google result for “Covid after effects” gave me this:
    https://www.mayoclinic.org/diseases-conditions/coronavirus/in-depth/coronavirus-long-term-effects/art-20490351

    Then I found what may have been my original source on Parkinson’s

    https://www.abc.net.au/news/2020-09-23/covid-19-may-cause-parkinsons-disease-research-finds/12688384

    Also for the WWl connection

    https://content.iospress.com/articles/journal-of-parkinsons-disease/jpd202211

    I hope that hasn’t made your hand shake.

    • Replies: @Peripatetic Commenter
  114. Iva says:

    https://www.bitchute.com/video/9pUq3FXLaifk/
    https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=G8Kmcivi1u4……&#8230;.both incredible

    Dr Martin said that he would advise Trump to call press conference with Fauci and have federal agents to arest him in front the whole country for what he has done. It is all fake.

    • Agree: GeneralRipper
    • Replies: @GeneralRipper
  115. Bert says:
    @Jus' Sayin'...

    An alternative to the retirement scenario that you lay out is to spend those years in an activity that contributes a benefit to society. I for example dedicated myself to raising funds for the conservation of wild land through trading stock index futures on a daily basis. I spent my first years as a pensioner developing a unique system and now trade it successfully. Some retired people volunteer for charitable organizations. Your view of the value of those beyond the wage-slave years is apparently due to your choosing to do nothing that contributes. It fits the think-inside-the-box mentality characteristic of a bureaucrat too.

  116. @res

    I agree with all the points you make here. The issues get more complicated the more one considers them.

  117. @Wizard of Oz

    Hasn’t made my hand shake. Seems like bullshit speculation.

    • Disagree: Peripatetic Itch
    • Replies: @Wizard of Oz
  118. @Dieter Kief

    Pardon if I wasn´t clear – didn´t mean to wax Pietist or Calvinist, more
    Zur Genealogie der Moral 😀

    Anything “other” is either sick or predatory, ergo repulsion is self-preservation.

    • Replies: @Dieter Kief
  119. @James Thompson

    If so, the increase in tested cases of the virus will not translate into as many deaths as in the first wave of infections, and this should be apparent in about 28 days time.

    No, it won’t result in as many deaths as at first, quite the contrary. This can easily be demonstrated by comparing epidemiological curves for cases and for deaths. Case numbers are rising, deaths are down. You can verify this yourself by playing around with various epidemiological curves from the website below.

    It has been known since the 1850’s and the work of Dr. John Snow with cholera in London that the end of an epidemic is indicated by the death curve, when the deaths from the epidemic fall back into line with the rest of the deaths from all sources within a population. Covid deaths in Europe and in many places in the US are currently below 1 per million per day. Case numbers are irrelevant, and are made even more irrelevant by the fraught PCR test and it’s notorious false positives (and likely false negatives). A case in point is when my daughter appeared at work with mild flu symptoms and was sent home and to get a covid test. While the test game back negative, nevertheless she was instructed to isolate for 14 days. Such is the confidence the medical community has in the accuracy of the PCR test, results of which are used by politicians to determine public policy.

    http://91-divoc.com/pages/covid-visualization/

    • Agree: Kali
    • Thanks: Ilya G Poimandres, Mark G.
  120. @nokangaroos

    Just in case you had read deeper into my longish comment No. 116 – : – In pointing at the traps, the social-state mentality is caught in, I towards the end of No. 116 kinda rewrite Nietzsche – or recontextualize his basic insight, that there are always wishes and (strong, very strong) emotions, the neat organizations of the modern state can’t – satisfy (I Can’t Get No – Satisfaction//J./R.).

    I do think that this is a real threat. The more modern societies act as if they could live up to the utopian drives they are constantly confronted with by means that spring from their own dynamic (pop-culture, consumerism…), the more they undermine what holds them (somehow) together.

    PS

    I may add that neither humble me nor high-flyin’ Friedrich – that none of us takes this modern Archilles-heel too lightly. And we agree of course, that this core problem of modernity is rooted in the – dematerialization, so to speak, of – – – – transcendency (I say this with a Nietzschean – laugh) – and its – – – – agents, let me put it this way (I’m still laughin’), but – – – – nevertheless: The whole affair is quite real, and does cause lots (and lots) of trouble – laugh about it / shout about it / when you’ve got to chooseJesus loves you more than you will knowoh, oh, oh….

    • Replies: @nokangaroos
  121. @canspeccy

    Please. You might as well be worry about a meteor crash that will wipe humans out.

    But what does that have to do with anything?

    If having money is not enough, what is? Because that was the only upside to killing the old. That was the only net upside like he stated.

    This needs to be repeated.

    6 weeks full quarantine or 3 to 6 months of mandatory mask wearing. Problem solved.

  122. Bill P says:

    Why modeling Covid 19 is so problematic (and why this BS about “science” and “facts” drives me to extremes of exasperation):

    A simple way of arriving at a true conception of the mathematician’s business is to consider what service it is which he is called in to render in the course of any scientific or other inquiry. Mathematics has always been more or less a trade. An engineer, or a business company (say, an insurance company), or a buyer (say, of land), or a physicist, finds it suits his purpose to ascertain what the necessary consequences of possible facts would be; but the facts are so complicated that he cannot deal with them in his usual way. He calls upon a mathematician and states the question. Now the mathematician does not conceive it to be any part of his duty to to verify the facts stated. He accepts them absolutely without question. He does not in the least care whether they are correct or not. He finds, however, in almost every case that the statement has one inconvenience, and in many cases that it has a second. The first inconvenience is that, though the statement may not at first sound very complicated, yet, when it is accurately analyzed, it is found to imply so intricate a condition of things than it far surpasses the power of the mathematician to say with exactitude what its consequence would be. At the same time, it frequently that the facts, as stated, are insufficient to answer the question that is put. Accordingly, the first business of the mathematician, often a most difficult task, is to frame another simpler but quite fictitious problem (supplemented, perhaps, by some supposition), which shall be within his powers, while at the same time it is sufficiently like the problem set before him to answer, well or ill, as a substitute for it. This substituted problem differs also from that which was first set before the mathematician in another respect: namely, that it is highly abstract. All features that have no bearing upon the relations of the premisses to the conclusion are effaced and obliterated. The skeletonization or diagrammatization of the problem serves more purposes than one; but its principal purpose is to strip the significant relations of all disguise. Only one kind of concrete clothing is permitted — namely, such as, whether from habit or from the constitution of the mind, has become so familiar that it decidedly aids in tracing the consequences of the hypothesis. Thus, the mathematician does two very different things: namely, he first frames a pure hypothesis stripped of all features which do not concern the drawing of consequences from it, and this he does without inquiring or caring whether it agrees with the actual facts or not; and, secondly, he proceeds to draw necessary consequences from that hypothesis.

    -CS Peirce

    on

    The Nature of Mathematics

    Basically, we’re driving blind here. “Intelligence” hasn’t done us much good, apparently. Note that of all places on earth, Sub-Saharan Africa seems to have the fewest problems with coronavirus.

    Are we really intelligent for relying on mathematical models of coronavirus, or, alternatively, are we just plain stupid?

  123. @Dieter Kief

    Call my biologism-as-default lazy if you wish –
    but there still is no rationalization in Nature.
    “Alienation” is not living in accordance with our behavioral toolbox – that´s how we end up with our women casting their unemployed maternal instincts on the jogger.
    Our forefathers held out hope that come time Knowledge would set us free, but look around:
    Our offspring will wax nostalgic for the good old days of Idiocracy.

    (“Groß erschien mir jener Mann und reif für den Sinn der Welt; doch als ich seine Frau erblickte, schien mir die Erde ein Haus für Wahnsinnige.” 😛 )

    • Replies: @Dieter Kief
  124. CanSpeccy says: • Website

    If having money is not enough, what is?

    having the ability to produce a valuable good or service is better than having money in a time of chaos. If I can produce something of value I can exchange it for something of value and if the other party to the deal fails to come through I can scotch the deal by ceasing to supply whatever it is that I have the means to provide. That’s not necessarily the case with less direct sources of income. Every $trillion the US Government prints ($3 trillion so far this year) devalues your savings, and your pension. A BLM dominated government might well deprive you of both savings and pension entirely. A Chinese nuke striking somewhere near you would likely reduce you to absolute poverty if not death by starvation.

    6 weeks full quarantine or 3 to 6 months of mandatory mask wearing. Problem solved.

    What is the problem that your multi-trillion-dollar extension of lockdown is supposed to solve? You think it will make the Corona virus go away? Why would it? The virus hasn’t gone away despite the initial quarantines that have cost four – trillions of dollars in lost GDP, why would another shut down of the economy achieve anything more, except temporarily. Oh mandatory face masks, you say. LOL. The standard cloth masks don’t intercept aerosol particles, which means they are, as the literature generally indicates, more or less useless, although they give people a false sense of security which causes many to social distance less carefully.

    The probability is that Covid19 will keep coming around like the common cold, although accumulating T-cell and antibody immunity will make successive waves less severe than the first. Maybe an effective vaccine will be developed, but that would be amazing since there is no effective vaccine for any other corona virus. Meantime, perhaps it will not prove beyond America’s technological genius to develop a face mask that actually works. Of course there is already the N95 mask, available at any hobby shop, but we’re not supposed to use those. I wonder why.

    • Replies: @Astuteobservor II
  125. Anon[165] • Disclaimer says:
    @utu

    “ Is it possibly that there is something to the ‘variolation’ by masking of the whole population hypothesis?”

    In MEXICO, where I live, the President is a covidiot who refuses to wear masks, and has cut resources from the public hospitals. So people, left to their own devices, have started to wear masks on their own, decide how to isolate the elderly, how to conduct business, etc. It varies enormously by region/city. (Our official death toll is nothing to be proud of).

    But mask wearing is definitely a thing. A friend is currently in the hospital, male 52, bad Covid case, they’re doing an experimental treatment in arguably the best hospital. The wife is a doctor, she has asymptomatic Covid, none of the children got it. She believes —as do the doctors involved— that wearing masks is the key to lessen viral load/symptoms/transmission.

    Three months back, a similar couple. Husband got it w pneumonia. Wife felt pretty bad but no pneumonia. Two kids and a worker got light symptoms. One daughter did everything possible to get infected and didn’t. FWIW.

    • Thanks: utu
  126. Anon[165] • Disclaimer says:
    @Astuteobservor II

    @ “ just forced mandatory mask wearing for 3 months would have done the job too. ”

    Exactly. Or even better, voluntary mask wearing, which I suspect is what they did back in 1918.

    • Replies: @Astuteobservor II
  127. @Iva

    It has gotten to the point where people who spend a majority of their lives watching TV can LITERALLY be made to believe ANYTHING, no matter how preposterous.

    If there is one single thing that would help this country BEGIN the climb out of our current situation, it would be for people to get rid of the goddamn Jew Media/Hollyweird sewer pipe into their homes/living rooms.

    They’re being lied to and indoctrinated, day after day. It’s been ongoing for at least the last 40 years.

  128. Obviously we’re back to trying to scare housewives (and people iso-cognitive with housewives) by convincing them that case counts are the critical variable.

    Ivor Cummins has done a masterful job of showing how the scary ‘second wave of cases‘ nonsense has not been accompanied by a second wave of deaths (not even deaths-with), anywhere in the world.

    People are finding their natural spot in the cognitive taxonomy – as reliably as giving everyone a half-decent IQ test.

    No quantitatively competent individual is concerned about this weak-ass pathogen – except those whose corn-pone would be compromised if they strayed from the Correct Line.

    Non-compromised people are not dying.

    Let’s fucking end this horse-shit, and move to
     • the public executions of the people who forced elderly sick people back into retirement homes; and
     • public floggings of those who force-quarantined people indoors with no exposure to sunlight.

    • Agree: Mark G., TheTrumanShow, xcd
    • Replies: @Dieter Kief
  129. @Hans Vogel

    the only defenses one can turn to are ridicule and a kind of communication guerilla

    Since Australia has such a low level of deaths, the common practice during the morning briefing by the Overlords actually enumerates the ages of the victims, and sometimes their status:… e.g., There were 5 deaths: a woman aged in her 70s; a man aged in his 80s, and 3 women aged in their 90s: all were residents in aged care centres.“.

    For a while there, when I was staying at my parents’ house (my Mum – in her mid-70s – was a worry-wart), I would always greet the announcement by saying

    “What a tragic waste of potential…. their parents must be inconsolable.”

  130. “I think that public health is better served by giving good explanations and stressing general principles.”-James Thompson

    What percentage of a given population is capable of grokking the aforementioned and making appropriate disciplined changes to behavior?

  131. @Bill P

    Just plain stupid, but wait, what do you mean “we”, Kemosabe?

    • Agree: Adam Smith
  132. @CanSpeccy

    Like I stated, what in the hell does all of that have to do with me having the money to retire without relying on the govt or pensions? Unforseen circumstances wiping out the the entire economic system, yea, wtf does that have to do with me having the money to retire on?

    Please don’t talk to me about investments. You know nothing.

    China locked down with almost full quarantine for 8 weeks. Cost them next to nothing. Only damn country with a growing economy. Wtf is this multi trillion BS you are spouting?

    It is costing trillions precisely because we are doing not even half ass quarantine but extremely superficial lock downs. Repeatedly.

    6 weeks full quarantine n we fully get back with our lives. Or we go about our lives with masks on for a few months.

    Pick one. It fucking works.

    • Replies: @CanSpeccy
    , @utu
  133. Before there were computer models, there was the Farr Curve (Google is your friend – teh CEBM curve isn’t quite right. They are oversimplying. The classic curve is steeper going up than down). Dr Farr identified this shape around 1840 and once a few early datapoints are established it is said to be a good predictor of the course of epidemics. I have been tracking the death rates in Wales. Excess mortality turns out ot have been a perfect Farr Curve. This implies that a useful level of Herd Immunity has been reached, enough to stop the spread of the virus.

    The prediction is that the main epidemic is over. Nature is never 100%. There will be continuing smaller outbreaks (the more supressed the virus in the first place the bigger the continuing outbreaks) but not 2nd waves. This contrasts with the re-emerging Neil Ferguson who is still crying doom like any good climate modeller. (Finite element analysis is not the answer to everything, shades of the University of East Anglia. If you have a hammer the world looks like a nail).

    Here is the data I have collected for Wales. Covid deaths have followed a perfect Farr Curve. The last two weeks Welsh Covid deaths were zero. I expect them to rise up to even a few dozen. The 3rd week in September is apparently peak for transmitting winter colds, behaviour change, new mutation, naive population, Farr Curve begins.

    My latest chart.

    • Replies: @Philip Owen
  134. @Peripatetic Commenter

    There is the general and then there is the Parkinson’s specific concer. DI would be interested to know why you regard each as BS speculation.

    In particular, isn’t it rational to be concerned about the apparent connection of Spanish flu after effects and Parkinson’s? And if your estimate of the likelihood of Covid19 having a Spanish flu like sequel was 15 wouldn’t that make you cautious?

  135. @Bert

    You may be one of those rare exceptions, pensioners whose contributions to the economy outweigh their retirement benefits, but your description of your current activities suggests otherwise. Trading stock index futures is basically gambling. I notice that like many inveterate gamblers you claim to have developed a “system”. My experience is that gamblers who claim to have a “system” are usually dealing with an addiction. Don’t go overboard on your trading.

    I’m the overwhelmingly dominant type of pensioner. I keep myself occupied but not in ways that contribute materially to the economy.

    • Replies: @Bert
  136. @Philip Owen

    Roo late for an edit.

    No one in Wales, Pop 3 million, under 45 has died OF Covid. 28 people under 45 all seriously ill with other diseases were classified by Welsh Doctors (who are not bound by inflexible rules but their own judgement as to cause of death) as dying WITH Covid. The chart of Non Covid deaths above indicates that there was a burst of WITH Covid during the peak of the epidemic. Those deaths were accelerated by 6 weeks at most. On the whole, there has been a slight reduction in Non Covid deaths.

    There is no reason to suppose that Wales is not a good model for most long settled urban(ish) parts of Western Europe. 2m people live densely packed in post industrial urban areas. 1m are scattered across the landscape.

    • Replies: @Dieter Kief
  137. @Jus' Sayin'...

    One can explain this by hypothesizing, as I am currently doing, that Covid-19 is actually performing as a true infectious disease only in a relatively small sub-population.

    I haven’t seen anyone else put it that way, but that makes total sense.

    Why haven’t we done controlled experiments in which people with various characteristics are, for example, deliberately exposed to varying amounts of the airborne virus and then monitored to see if it is transmitted, if it infects the recipient, and what immune response or health effects result?

    The resulting data would likely tell us everything we need to know, including how to isolate the hypothesized mechanism by which covid is innocuous to 95%, annoying to 4.98%, and fatal to .o2%.

    I assume these experiments are prohibited as “unethical.” But this makes no sense as the virus is: (a) obviously overwhelming benign; (b) the virus is eventually going to infect (to the extent it can) almost everyone anyway; (c) plenty of people would be happy to volunteer; and (d) the knowledge gained would save infinitely more lives than could possibly be lost in the experiments (not to mention the trillions of dollars at stake).

    Personally, I am at a complete loss to understand the total loss of rationality that this virus has triggered.

    • Agree: xcd
  138. anon[327] • Disclaimer says:

    Phony Corony birthed by Tony Balony.

    Returning to Wuhan with mony Tony?
    $3.7 mill a goodly amount.

    Go to the beach, inhale salty air, have a
    cold beer with soup and deep fried bat.

  139. CanSpeccy says: • Website
    @Astuteobservor II

    Pick one. It fucking works.

    Well if the use of a coarse word for the act of coition were an effective antidote to the Corona virus, you nailed it.

    But sadly, you are like a low IQ version of Utu, parroting the official propaganda line and insulting any with the temerity to question it on the basis of actual evidence.

  140. CanSpeccy says: • Website
    @Hypnotoad666

    Personally, I am at a complete loss to understand the total loss of rationality that this virus has triggered.

    Doesn’t it remind you of 9/11? Then the loss of rationality led to the loss of at least half a million lives in Iraq plus the carnage in Afghanistan. So now, why not try to think what horrors the same loss of rationality over Covid may result in.

  141. @CanSpeccy

    I love how you glossed over the entire comment n went straight to insults. Zero counters or rebuttals.

    If you are too stupid, don’t attempt to engage my comments.

    • Replies: @CanSpeccy
  142. @Anon

    Kinda hard nowadays as people think they know better than doctors. Wearing a mask to reduce infection rates is the same as murdering them. I literally watched this on the news.

    Sometimes I wish covid 19 was way deadlier than just 0.5% to 1%. It will vastly improve the human gene pool.

    • Thanks: nokangaroos
    • Replies: @utu
    , @karel
    , @Anon
  143. @JasonT

    Our political structures, government bureaucracies and media have been co-opted by a small group of very reach people with the intent of culling the useless people (to them) and enslaving the rest.

    Precisely.

    As I’ve said from the beginning, this is about stealing the tiny bit of freedom and wealth that remained for the masses in the West.

  144. CanSpeccy says: • Website
    @Astuteobservor II

    If you are too stupid, don’t attempt to engage my comments.

    And you accuse me of insults. LOL.

    But I understand your irritation since clearly you bring nothing to the debate except cliches and so naturally you resent actual facts and logical arguments. But let me try once more to get through to you why, if you consume but do not produce, you must be riding on the backs of others.

    You think that because you pay out of saving or a pension for what you consume you are independent. But persons in your position are using money to divert goods and services that would either not have to be produced at all, or would otherwise be consumed by members of the productive population. Thus the pensioned class either cause the consumption of the productive class to be less than it would otherwise have been, or they add to the work that the productive class would otherwise do if they produced only for themselves.

    As for your comments about masks, do you know how many studies, if any, have been conducted to determine the effect of face masks on the spread of Covid19, and if any such studies have been conducted, what the findings were? No. Thought not.

    • Agree: acementhead
    • Replies: @Astuteobservor II
  145. utu says:
    @Astuteobservor II

    Wearing a mask to reduce infection rates is the same as murdering them.

    Who are the ‘them’? A simple answer is that they are a substantial subset of the deplorables. You can run into them at the Ron’s Unz webzine all the time. Ron Unz is an enabler of the Deploradom. Most of them suffer from a peculiar grandiose delusion that they are in a position of knowing. Their obstinacy t0 reason and to seeing a bigger picture is psychological. They all suffer from what one could call the Libertarian Personality Disorder (LPD) which unfortunately The Diagnostic and Statistical Manual of Mental Disorders (DSM) have not included yet but I am confident that as America continues to strive to reduce its high deplorability index the LPD will eventually finds its place in the DSM.

    As an illustration here are few jewels that caught my eye at then UR:

    Mr. Anon: No, public policy should be to not assume powers that the government does not and ought not to have. It does not have the right to tell people to wear masks just because it makes you feel better.

    Mike Tre: I reject your framing that wearing a mask is the gentlemanly thing to do. It’s not. It’s mindless, ineffective virtue signaling for the masses.

    Kratoklastes: Going outside without a mask is what I do now. It’s what I have done all my life. It’s what I will continue to do. That’s because I’m numerate, and I’m not an 80 year old with chronic lung or heart disease.

    And I must add the ‘Alumni of Auschwitz School of Utilitarian Ethics’ though I am aware he is a little bit a different animal than the previous three but he exemplifies perfectly a common failure among the deplorables to adhere to basic ethical precepts on which the Western civilization was built that were encapsulated by Immanuel Kant in his Second Moral Imperative:

    Act in such a way that you treat humanity, whether in your own person or in the person of any other, never merely as a means to an end, but always at the same time as an end. – Immanuel Kant, Groundwork of the Metaphysic of Morals

    Just ‘Sayin’…: The vast majority of those dying of Covid-19 are net drains on the economy. They’re deadwood, pensioners sucking up resources that later generations will be paying
    for. Every such life lost is actually cost beneficial.

    So what do the sufferers from the LDS have in common? They score high on sociopathy, on paranoid ideations, on delusions of grandeur about their ability to comprehend and parse the reality. They are obstinate and recalcitrant. And most importantly they suffer from dissociation from a group which makes them incapable to comprehend the large picture which is necessary for understanding how society works and how humans interact. Their theory of mind is primitive. They almost always end up maximizing their own benefits and minimizing their own risks which keeps them within the local optimum only and they fail to realize that the global optimum can be reached only through cooperation and concerted efforts. They are trapped in the Prisoner’s Dilemma.

    The Prisoner’s Dilemma, as played by two very dumb libertarians who keep ending up on defect-defect. There’s a much better outcome available if they could figure out the coordination, but coordination is hard. From a god’s-eye-view, we can agree that cooperate-cooperate is a better outcome than defect-defect, but neither prisoner within the system can make it happen. – Scott Alexander

    • Disagree: Adam Smith
  146. @Bert

    “…activity that contributes a benefit to society. I for example dedicated myself to raising funds for the conservation of wild land through trading stock index futures on a daily basis. “

    No, your “trading” anything does not contribute a benefit to society. Your profits come entirely at the expense of somebody else. Trading is zero-sum. If trading were taxed out of existence, the benefits of the underlying investment would remain and the present traders would be released to do something useful.

    • Replies: @Bert
  147. utu says:
    @Astuteobservor II

    6 weeks full quarantine n we fully get back with our lives. Or we go about our lives with masks on for a few months.

    Basically I agree. Universal masking (plus reasonable social distancing) can make the quarantine unnecessary but when the outbreak is in a full swing this may require a quarantine to reduce the number of cases to the point of being manageable.

    I want to discuss masking and how it works. The mistake in thinking about masks comes from a wrong dichotomy that people can be divided into two groups of infected and uninfected only. But there is a broad spectrum of infected people from the asymptomatic to mildly sick, to severely sick and to the ones who are about to die. What determines the proportion (asymptomatic):(mildly sick):(severely sick)?

    Many arguments against masks hinge on the assumption that once you get infected your chances into which category you fall depends only on your immune response which is independent of whether you catch 1 virus or 10 million viruses. The emphasis is put on the immune response that may vary among people for various, mostly speculative (*), reasons. And since the masks are imperfect a long enough time spent in the environment contaminated with viruses even the masked people will eventually get infected so in the long run the outcome will the same as if people were not masked except possibly it would be delayed. This kind of mental process occurs in the heads of the maskophobes who actually have an infrastructure to support a mental process.

    But we know that universal masking in some countries like Japan, Singapore and Taiwan works very well where the masking usage is at 90% level. We know that masking reduces R0 to the point that the epidemic may get extinguished but more recent data indicate that there is something else going on. It seems that universal masking while reducing R0 and the infection rate the infections are still occurring but the infected do not get sick and fall in the asymptomatic category.

    What is the possible explanation? Masks lower the virus load and it is well known that the course of the disease depends on the viral load. The initial viral load that causes the infection determines the severity of the disease. We would get a sigmoid curve if we plotted the severity of diseases on the y-axis and the viral load on the x-axis. There would be a thresholds of viral load below which all cases would be asymptomatic and another threshold below which the symptoms would be mild. Universal maskings puts larger segment of population below the fist threshold. They get infected and become infectious but because of low virus load they absorbed the shed less virus but still contribute the spread of the epidemic which becomes a silent epidemic as larger and large proportion of people are asymptomatic. People develop antibodies and when their number reaches the herd immunity threshold the epidemic will stop.

    There is an evidence from closed environment ‘experiments’ like cruise ships or factories or offices that in places where there was universal masking the number of asymptomatic cases was at 80-95% while where people were not masked the number of asymptomatic cases was around 20%.

    Masks Do More Than Protect Others During COVID-19: Reducing the Inoculum of SARS-CoV-2 to Protect the Wearer (Jul 2020)
    https://www.ncbi.nlm.nih.gov/pmc/articles/PMC7393808/

    In Tokyo, a city of 14 million, where according to recent estimate of antibodies prevalence increased form 5.9% to 40 % between June and September only 244 people died. A city where masking is at 90% level religiously adhered but no lockdowns and with normal business and commuting operation.

    Is it possible that the the ‘variolatiom’ masking hypotheses is correct because it can explain the differences between the so called 1st and 2nd waves where the drop of mortality in some countries is one or more orders of magnitude? Here is the paper:

    Facial Masking for Covid-19 — Potential for “Variolation” as We Await a Vaccine, The New England Journal of Medicine
    https://www.nejm.org/doi/pdf/10.1056/NEJMp2026913?articleTools=true

    (*) The whole cornucopia of speculative reasons was displayed in comments above: state of health, Vitamin D, previous exposure to similar viruses, having good or bad genes, RF radiation exposure, and even moral rectitude (Susan Sontag poster).

  148. LondonBob says:

    • Replies: @Philip Owen
  149. @nokangaroos

    Knowledge alone will never do – in that the forefathers were wrong. Knowledge and style – maybe. Knowledge and taste, style and courtesy (Jagger/Richards) : Even closer to 100%. As for me personally, I’d throw in faith too.

    The mildly leftwing Frankfurt-based satirical monthly TITANIC had a slogan in the eighties which read: It’s about time for the womenfolk to return to normal!

    And the writer Peter Schneider, with regard to his own excesses as a 68er, wrote the quite reasonable essay Rebellion und Wahn (Rebellion and Madness). Hans Magnus Enzensberger had been a tad faster and examined the dialectics of  Middleground and Madness (Mittelmaß und Wahn) in ’88 – in favor, mind you of mediocrity and common sense especially. I think that these were decent attempts. Not to forget Hermann Peter Piwitts Boccherini and other Duties of the Citizen (’79).

    Now it’s Jordan Peterson pointing at the simple fact, that men and women are not the same, do not behave always in the same way, and that that this is nothing to worry about. So – equality of opportunity is not destroyed if it leads to different outcomes. – It’s all laughably easy if seen from this angle; and in that sense too, Nietzsche was right, even though he himself could not see it. – He was terribly shortsighted – it would be fun to make a movie about him in the mountains seen with his almost blind eyes – no difference for him between the Matterhorn and a foggy stable in the mist – only a few steps away from him. Such are our seers, – and womenizers, hehe.

  150. @Hypnotoad666

    How could testing volunteers like you propose to do be unethical? – I’m wondering.

    As an aside: What is rational is oftentimes only clear in hindsight. Semmelweis looked like an underachieving idiot to his contemporaries.

  151. @Philip Owen

    By and large the same numbers in Baden-Württemberg (southern Germany, 11 mio.), Switzerland (8.6 mio.) and Austria (8.9 mio.).

    • Thanks: Philip Owen
  152. @Kratoklastes

    Thanks kratoklastes. Ivor Cummins’ analysis video is dealing nicely indeed with the problem of the excess deaths and with the of and with CO-19 deaths question – amongst other things. 800 deaths of CO-19 in Sweden so far. This is no pandemic.

  153. Pericles says:
    @Wizard of Oz

    [Don’t turn the nose up at Chinese money. Your private school wants a new swimming pool? It could be Chinese parents who pay for it 100%!].

    Ironically, that money comes from your outsourced manufacturing jobs.

  154. karel says:
    @TKK

    Go there and start laughing again.

  155. karel says:
    @Astuteobservor II

    Cannot you just murder ”them” without wearing a mask? That would be easier or have you another opinion. Should one use a knife or a pistol?

    • Replies: @Astuteobservor II
  156. karel says:
    @Notsofast

    Soon we will have a Mexican wave and just watch what will Bill Gates do.

  157. @Hypnotoad666

    The Diamond Princess did the experiment for us. It was 4 weeks before meaningful quarantine was applied. So 100% attack rate as near as makes no ifference. 20% with positive tests but only half of those with symptoms.

    • Replies: @xcd
  158. @LondonBob

    My own calculation for Wales shows 1600 Covid 19 deaths and about 1000 fewer deaths than normal post covid, so far. So more like 2/3 anyway.

    • Replies: @CanSpeccy
  159. @Wizard of Oz

    I notice you posted no links to data, to back up your assertion that the Spanish flu produced a surge of Parkinson’s disease in the 20’s. I believe most will agree we’ve been bull shited enough by so called “experts,” we don’t need lay people piling on more b.s.!

  160. What seems to be never mentioned is that there isn’t a damn thing anyone or any government can do to stop the spread of anything! You can “delay” the spread, such as the so called con of “flattening the curve,” but eventually a virus or bacteria is going to reach whomever it is going to reach through the course of living life.
    The only thing that can be done to stop it is to STOP LIVING! Which is the stupidest, most unscientific approach possible.
    Stop working, stop producing necessary goods, stop providing necessary services, such as the shutdown of virtually all medical care not related to Covid 19, so people can remain sick or die of other ailments as long as it’s not a sickness or death due to this, and only this particular virus?
    The virus, real or not, has been used as a smoke screen for a world wide social experiment / control project and nothing more!
    Most every government, the MSM, the medical industrial complex, and big tech all fell in line lockstep to drill home the narrative as if following a script. The fact that every attempt has been made to artificially inflate case / death numbers, even by the most absured measures as outlined by commenter JasonT, and any relevant expert to this scamdemic who’s opinion and even scientific data being scrubbed from any and all public platforms and being cast as heretics, with a religious fervor on par with the Spanish Inquisition is all the proof one needs to know that Covid 19 is being used for nefarious purposes by government’s and the elites that write the checks to finance those government’s.
    Lets us not forget those looking to make billions manufacturing a vaccine, and impose mandatory vaccination for not just Covid but everything communicable diseases under the sun.
    Money, power, control… Nothing has been done for the benefit of the masses, on the contrary everything has been done to the detriment of the masses!
    You can die of starvation, economic impoverishment, homelessness, stress, anxiety, depression, suicide, loneliness, drug and alcohol abuse, etc… But you will not die of Covid!
    That’s a brilliant strategy! And seems to be lost on Mr Thompson!

  161. CanSpeccy says: • Website
    @utu

    Universal masking (plus reasonable social distancing) can make the quarantine unnecessary but when the outbreak is in a full swing this may require a quarantine to reduce the number of cases to the point of being manageable.

    Don’t you remember, lockdowns and social distancing were introduced to “flatten the curve.” There was never a rational expectation that these measures would eliminate the virus. So repeating these measures, now that the curve has been “flattened” and behavior has been modified to limit viral spread, what do you imagine will be achieved by repeating these measures?

    The virus hasn’t gone away and probably never will, which means we should get back to business, let kids go back to school and generally resume normal life.

    You talk about universal masking as if that was a generally recognized solution to viral spread, but you don’t know that, because there is no evidence of that. Rather the evidence points to the fact that mask have, at best, a minor effect on the spread of aerosol droplets of spit and snot that we all exhale, but give many people a false sense of security that makes them careless about social distancing.

    You and the self-proclaimed AstuteObserver, are simply catapaulting the propaganda without knowing what you are talking about. But then where would fascist dictators be without such loyal followers.

    • Agree: xcd
  162. @TKK

    And Belarus, and Brazil…

  163. @No Friend Of The Devil

    Face it, the majority aren’t competent to vote. Democracies simply fail because, garbage in, garbage out.

  164. CanSpeccy says: • Website
    @Philip Owen

    My own calculation for Wales shows 1600 Covid 19 deaths and about 1000 fewer deaths than normal post covid, so far. So more like 2/3 anyway.

    Thank you for that useful insight. It encourages those of us of considerable age to follow the example of Lord Sumption in seeking to enjoy what short time remains to us by leading a normal life even though that entails a modest risk of bringing forward our own demise, which in any case is imminent.

    We of course would not wish to impose our preference on anyone else. If others wish to stay home all day, or appear in public only when protected with a gas mask, so be it.

  165. @VinnyVette

    And the Australian doctor’s article he references had an N of 1.

    It seems similar to polio. Some small percentage of people who contract polio have it attack their nerve tissue.

    Sad for them but not a big issue for those of us who take care of our immune systems.

    I’m still waiting for the virus that turns people into zombies. That will be one to worry about.

    • Replies: @karel
  166. res says:
    @VinnyVette

    You could always look for references yourself. It is not that hard. Or at least try making a polite request for references first.

    Some hits I got.

    https://www.worldpdcongress.org/home/2017/4/7/flu-and-you

    The idea that viruses or other infectious agents may be a contributor to parkinsonism comes from a number of events. One of the most famous, is the parkinsonism that developed following the 1918 influenza pandemic. Here, people born during the time of this Spanish flu outbreak had a 2-3-fold-increased risk of PD than those born prior to 1888 or after 1924.

    https://www.ncbi.nlm.nih.gov/pmc/articles/PMC4684089/

    Encephalitis lethargica (EL) with its post-encephalitic Parkinsonism has been closely associated with the 1918 flu pandemic [9]. Chronicled in 1917 by Constantin von Economo in his paper “Die Encephalitis lethargica”, the disease was characterized by high fever, ophthalmoplegia, mental confusion, and lethargy [4, 10]. An epidemic of EL coincided with, and lasted for a decade following the 1918 influenza outbreak. Although the 1918 flu was believed to be a cause EL, its exact viral etiology has not be identified. Approximately 75% of the cases presented with ocular findings. The lethargy lasted from several days to a few months, and frequently culminated in coma and death secondary to respiratory failure [4]. About 80% of the patients who recovered from EL went on to develop a Parkinson’s-like disease [4, 11]. The Parkinsonian features described included tremor, bradykinesia and masked facies [12]. The disease was named post encephalitic Parkinson’s disease (PEP). Although the connection is controversial, research has shown that individuals who were born between 1888 and 1924, and thus were born or were young at approximately the time of the pandemic, had a two to three fold higher risk of developing Parkinson’s disease, than those born outside of that range [12].

    Reference 12 in that excerpt is
    https://www.ncbi.nlm.nih.gov/pmc/articles/PMC4642437/

    There is a large body of evidence that influenza can directly lead to encephalitis [38, 39, 43-51]. However, the link with Parkinson’s disease is somewhat controversial. Much of the linkage of parkinsonism with influenza and many other viruses stem from an outbreak of encephalitic lethargica (EL), also known as von Economo’s disease, and the postencephalic parkinsonism that occurred subsequent to the 1918 pandemic influenza outbreak caused by a type A H1N1 influenza virus [52].

    As discussed, the cause of EL and the link to subsequent postencephalic parkinsonism is controversial. There is an epidemiological tie, mostly based on increased incidence of PD, to the 1918 H1N1 influenza A pandemic [55-57]. For example, it has been shown that people born during the time of the pandemic influenza outbreak of 1918 have a 2-3 fold-increased risk of Parkinson’s disease than those born prior to 1888 or after 1924 [58, 59]. Pozkanzer and Schwab [56] also showed an increase in PD onset based on an external event occurring around 1920.

    So it looks like the surge in Parkinson’s disease in the 20’s is well established, but the connection to the Spanish flu is somewhat controversial.

    This paper is more negative, but if I understand correctly most of their criticism is directed at the idea that influenza is the sole cause. The paper has a useful account of the history of the Spanish flu and Parkinson’s disease connection.
    https://www.hindawi.com/journals/pd/2013/167843/

  167. @VinnyVette

    I didn’t post the articles from which I derived the information as I had done earlier, in another thread I think. The reason is simple. I was assuming a well informed person would be aware of the issue of complications from various viruses and so merely directed his attention to it. In your case I wonder why you replied at all when, in shorter time, you could gave Googled for “Spanish flu Parkinson’s Disease” and saved yourself from looking lazy and captious.

  168. @CanSpeccy

    Just FYI, I love insults with counters n rebuttals. You should try it. Lol.

    Please don’t engage me in the future. Waste of my time.

  169. res says:
    @Peripatetic Commenter

    Thanks. For those who prefer text to video and/or like references, follow the link to the transcript. It is very well done.

  170. @Astuteobservor II

    Jus Sayin can point out the facts of the economic costs of the elderly, without being “cold” or “heartless.” A fact is fact, and facts are neither loving nor warm, nor cold, uncaring or heartless. They are merely facts!
    Aa soon as someone tries some sort of false equivalency such as yours in an arguement, or discussion, they have forfeited as far as I’m concerned!

    • Replies: @Astuteobservor II
  171. @res

    I’m well aware I can “google it,” really don’t need your pointing out of the obvious… he made the comment it’s up to him to provide some reference to back up his position. It’s not up to me to do his bidding.
    You want to? Knock yourself out.

    • Replies: @res
  172. @utu

    I don’t know all the technical details. I just know what works from what the east Asian countries are doing.

    I really don’t understand that there is still an argument about whether or not they work. Asian countries are living proof they work.

    From what you wrote about the Libertarians. They seem to be another parasite like Jews. Don’t want to contribute to society but wants all the benefits while shitting on it.

  173. @res

    The important question is, IMO, to what extent are those who were susceptible to the 1918 Influenza also susceptible to Parkinson’s Disease?

    • Replies: @res
  174. res says:
    @VinnyVette

    Not even a thank you for providing the references you seemed (pretended?) to want?

    It’s not up to me to do his bidding.

    True, but you don’t have to be be an asshole about it. Did you read past my second sentence?

    You want to? Knock yourself out.

    Pretty funny coming in a reply to a comment where I already did just that. Did you read past my first paragraph?

    P.S. A sincere request for references is one thing. Attempting to use a lack of references as a way of scoring points when evidence does exist (and is quite easy to find) is another. It seems clear at this point which category applies to your comment.

    • Agree: acementhead
  175. @VinnyVette

    Well, let me try to convey my point better.

    You want facts?

    Why not kill off anyone who isn’t able to work and contribute anymore? Doesn’t matter if it is old age or disability.

    They are a net loss right?

    That is the same argument he put forth and you are supporting.

  176. @karel

    Living proof that retards thinks wearing a mask is murder.

    • Replies: @karel
  177. res says:
    @Peripatetic Commenter

    I’m not sure about that. As I understand it, the relevant causal chains would be.

    1. Susceptible to flu -> get flu -> get Parkinson’s disease

    2. Susceptible to flu -> get Parkinson’s disease

    2. would be the conditions prevailing prior to 1918 (the base rate for PD). 1. would be the situation after 1918. Presumably the increase in PD rate would be evidence the flu itself was important and not just susceptibility to it.

    Your question is interesting, but IMO hard to assess given the apparent importance of actually getting the flu as an intermediate factor. Plus the difficulty of knowing someone’s susceptibility to the flu without them getting it–maybe someday with genetics, but now?

    • Replies: @Peripatetic Commenter
  178. @CanSpeccy

    Doesn’t it remind you of 9/11?

    The bio-security threat is even more dangerous as a rationale for tyranny.

    The whole concept of liberty is based on the ethos that you can do whatever you want as long as you aren’t harming others. But the new bio-threat means that the mere act of living and breathing and existing in the world is a physical threat to others. So the existence of a virus gives the government a right to monitor and control every aspect of your life: where you go, who you can meet with, what you must wear on your face.

    Best of all, the virus is invisible and the threat can only be understood by government “experts,” and any contradiction of their claims must be censored as “misinformation.”

    And if the virus isn’t actually killing anyone, it just proves how great the government’s control measures are!

  179. @Achmed E. Newman

    You may know epidemiology, but you’ve got no commons sense. Common sense matters too.

    One of the more frustrating (yet revealing) aspects of the Great 2020 Freakout has been the extent of sheep-like adherence to false “expert” authority. As in: “So-so has a degree in such-and-such, and is a member of an important organization with ‘World’ or ‘International’ in the title, so we must take his pronouncements on public policy at face value. We don’t need un-official people analyzing data, thinking critically, and trying to confuse us with ‘alternative facts.’”

    • Agree: xcd
    • Replies: @Mark G.
    , @Achmed E. Newman
  180. CanSpeccy says: • Website
    @Peripatetic Commenter

    Yes, Corbett is a good analyst. But other than heading for the hills, does he have a proposal as to how those who seek to preserve personal liberty should respond to the virus-crisis-facilitated corporate-state power grab?

  181. Sean says:
    @James Thompson

    From Friston’s opinion piece in the BMJ the other week:

    When one models what is likely to happen—in terms of viral spread and our responses to it—a plausible worst-case scenario is a peak in daily deaths in the tens (e.g., 50 to 60) not hundreds, in November.

    A covid19 epidemic coinciding with annual winter flu epidemic was always what the government was most scared of. They originally were arguing for herd immunity because they wanted it to burn itself out before winter.

  182. karel says:
    @Peripatetic Commenter

    How do you know that your immune system is any good? Would you occasionally have a feeling that taking care of your dick makes is much larger than what anyone else may have?

  183. karel says:
    @Astuteobservor II

    Who murders whom? Can you clarify the confusion please.

  184. CanSpeccy says: • Website
    @Sean

    A covid19 epidemic coinciding with annual winter flu epidemic was always what the government was most scared of. They originally were arguing for herd immunity because they wanted it to burn itself out before winter.

    And now the public are being terrified by governments reporting ever increasing numbers of “cases”. In the UK deaths peaked at 1152 on April 9 and “cases” hit a peak of 6201 on May 1. “cases” then dropped by 94% to 352 on July 3, by which time the daily death toll had fallen 94% from the April peak.

    But then the supposedly deadly “Second Wave” hit with 6873 “cases” last Friday, an 11% increase over May’s peak. This seems to have turned Boris Johnson into the Great Dictator intent on locking everyone up. Funny thing, though, UK Covid deaths are down to 34, or only 3% of April’s peak rate and only half of the rate at the time of the July minimum in “cases.”

    The same pattern is evident in Canada and other North temperate zone countries. The US pattern is somewhat different, as the epidemic started later and is peaking later in Southern than in Northern states, a difference in pattern also seen with the seasonal flu. Nevertheless, it is now clear that the “Second Wave” is by no means comparable in lethality with the first and is not generating a significant excess death rate. In effect, therefore, the epidemic in Northern countries is over — for this year, anyhow.

    • Agree: Wielgus
  185. Anon[165] • Disclaimer says:
    @Astuteobservor II

    “ Kinda hard nowadays as people think they know better than doctors.”

    Agree. I was thinking this reaction (“I won’t wear a mask because the government told me to and you’re stupid sheep if you do”) is par for the course in Western countries. Given our need for constant pleasure and the deep-set distrust of our kindly elites, it is also natural.

    But in western countries where the government has not made it mandatory, and there is a public perception of a)the risks to self and neighbors and b)the shortcomings of public health care, people start to voluntarily wear masks. (Obviously the young and the older egoists struggle) Funny, the way humans work.

    A remarkable thing about Covid is how much your perception depends on whether you live in a densely populated area (and have friends), or not. My brother has spent the last three months near Zurich, he says he’s the only madman that wears a mask. 😂 His experience is sooo different from mine.

  186. Mark G. says:
    @Hypnotoad666

    It probably isn’t surprising that the great 2020 Freakout happened here. The U.S. spends more money on medical care than any other country in the world but many European countries have longer life expectancies. If you look closely, you’ll find that on additional life expectancy past the age of 65 the U.S. does very well and the worse outcomes are primarily among lower ages. The U.S. has decided to focus on taking care of the medical needs of elderly people first. This even involves spending large amounts of money to keep the sick 89 year old alive another year.

    It is hard to tell why we decided to do that. Since we have a democracy and older people are more likely to vote they have a disproportionate influence on public policy. The U.S. medical profession has adopted a medical model that involves treating people after they become sick rather than focusing on preventive medicine. This is partly philosophical but since they make more money from high priced surgeries and drugs for sick people there are also financial incentives.

    So if a disease comes along that kills primarily old people like this one there will inevitably be an overreaction to it and the costs incurred will fall more on the young while the old and the medical profession that cares for them will receive the benefits. There are many other reasons for this such as politicians wanting to accrue more power, the crony capitalist rich wanting to distract attention from the massive government bailouts they are getting and so on but this medical imbalance is a factor driving this.

  187. dearieme says:
    @Sean

    When one models what is likely to happen

    Is he another modelling charlatan, or is there good reason to heed what he says?

    • Replies: @Sean
  188. @res

    Your question is interesting, but IMO hard to assess given the apparent importance of actually getting the flu as an intermediate factor. Plus the difficulty of knowing someone’s susceptibility to the flu without them getting it–maybe someday with genetics, but now?

    One of our defenses against the flu is expressing sialic acid in our mucus.

    https://www.virology.ws/2014/01/08/cutting-through-mucus-with-the-influenza-virus-neuraminidase/

    That is because Influenza binds to sialic acid to get into cells so it can reproduce and those cells will then get destroyed once the body figures out they are infected.

    Now, according to this paper PD is due to the destruction of nerves in the substantia nigra:

    https://www.medicalnewstoday.com/articles/parkinsons-disease-autoimmune-attack-may-start-years-before-diagnosis

    I guess if the virus can get through the blood brain barrier it could attack those nerves.

  189. The CDC released new estimates of the IFR on September 10 that I have only now become aware of.

    Their best estimate of the IRF (with an R0 of 2.5) is:

    0-19 years: 0.00003
    20-49 years: 0.0002
    50-69 years: 0.005
    70+ years: 0.054

    There are other details.

    Those numbers are way down from the early estimates from the WHO which estimated 3.4%.

    https://www.cdc.gov/coronavirus/2019-ncov/hcp/planning-scenarios.html

    However, as they say:

    These estimates are based on age-specific estimates of infection fatality ratios from Hauser, A., Counotte, M.J., Margossian, C.C., Konstantinoudis, G., Low, N., Althaus, C.L. and Riou, J., 2020. Estimation of SARS-CoV-2 mortality during the early stages of an epidemic: a modeling study in Hubei, China, and six regions in Europe. PLoS medicine, 17(7), p.e1003189.

    That paper is here: https://journals.plos.org/plosmedicine/article?id=10.1371/journal.pmed.1003189

    I note that they say:

    As of 16 May 2020, more than 4.5 million cases and more than 300,000 deaths from disease caused by severe acute respiratory syndrome coronavirus 2 (SARS-CoV-2) have been reported. Reliable estimates of mortality from SARS-CoV-2 infection are essential for understanding clinical prognosis, planning healthcare capacity, and epidemic forecasting. The case–fatality ratio (CFR), calculated from total numbers of reported cases and reported deaths, is the most commonly reported metric, but it can be a misleading measure of overall mortality.

    I wonder to what extent they have also accepted the redefinition of the word ‘case’ to mean anyone who presents with symptoms or who tests positive via a PCR test?

  190. utu: “So what do the sufferers from the LDS have in common? They score high on sociopathy, on paranoid ideations, on delusions of grandeur about their ability to comprehend and parse the reality. They are obstinate and recalcitrant. And most importantly they suffer from dissociation from a group which makes them incapable to comprehend the large picture which is necessary for understanding how society works and how humans interact.”

    What you are here stigmatizing as libertarian derangement syndrome I have referred to as having a non-conformist personality. It would be an interesting study for some grad student in psychology to see if susceptibility to mass hysteria (or mask hysteria) correlates positively with measures of conformism. I suspect it does.

    The evidence supporting mask-wearing as an effective countermeasure also seems of suspiciously recent advent. If masks worked so magnificently in 1918, one would think that the question would have been studied very well and the recommendation to wear them routine. Yet if masks are so good for stopping viruses, where were these recommendations during flu seasons after 1918? If masks were scientifically proven to have worked, millions died each year who could have been saved. I’m forced to the conclusion that either there were no such studies, or these much-vaunted health “experts” deliberately kept their knowledge to themselves and allowed people to die. But why would they do that? Unless they are all sadistic psychopaths who enjoy watching people die, they wouldn’t. Plainly, these “experts” didn’t know then that which they claim to know with such certainty now.

    • Replies: @Wielgus
    , @Adûnâi
  191. @Peripatetic Commenter

    Reading further into that paper in PLOS, I see this:

    CFR 2.4% (95% credible interval [CrI] 2.1%–2.8%), sCFR 3.7% (3.2%–4.2%), and IFR 2.9% (2.4%–3.5%).

    Does anyone else see a problem with an IFR higher than the CFR?

  192. Ron Unz says:
    @Peripatetic Commenter

    The CDC released new estimates of the IFR on September 10 that I have only now become aware of.

    Their best estimate of the IRF (with an R0 of 2.5) is…

    Well, I probably shouldn’t get drawn into the nonsense of arguing with a Flu Hoaxer retard, but I tend to doubt those numbers are correct…

    There actually have been dozens of different scientific studies trying to determine the IFR, and just as we might expect, they’re produced a considerable range of different estimates. A couple of months ago, there was a big front-page story in the WSJ discussing and summarizing them. Most found an IFR of between 0.5% and 1.0%, just like everyone sensible I know has been saying all along:

    Six months into the pandemic, researchers are homing in on an answer to one of the basic questions about the virus: How deadly is it?

    Researchers, initially analyzing data from outbreaks on cruise ships and more recently from surveys of thousands of people in virus hot spots, have now conducted dozens of studies to calculate the infection fatality rate of Covid-19.

    That research—examining deaths out of the total number of infections, which includes unreported cases—suggests that Covid-19 kills from around 0.3% to 1.5% of people infected. Most studies put the rate between 0.5% and 1.0%, meaning that for every 1,000 people who get infected, from five to 10 would die on average.

    https://www.wsj.com/articles/how-deadly-is-covid-19-researchers-are-getting-closer-to-an-answer-11595323801

    Obviously, you can always find an extreme outlier, but when you have dozens of reputable studies, it’s better to go with the majority of them.

  193. utu says:
    @Peripatetic Commenter

    CDC used Hauser et al. (July 2020) IFR’s but used different age brackets. Supposedly they weighted average to reflect age demographics in the US and did not include data for +80 years old. China data was not included. Data for 6 European regions was averaged.

    CDC reports IFR= 5.4% for 70+ bracket (Table 1). By eye balling the Fig. 4B (Hauser et al.) I think it should be higher.

    BTW, Hauser et al. in Table 1 list average IFR for each region and within 0.5-1.4% which is pretty much close to the numbers floating around since March.

    Hauser et al. IFR for Lombardy are higher than what the Berkeley team got in April:

    https://www.medrxiv.org/content/10.1101/2020.04.15.20067074v2.full.pdf

    This is sad that CFC has to use European data to report the estimate for the US. The spread between the 6 European regions is large.

    As you have pointed out the IFR numbers apply to “the early stages of an epidemic”, the 1st wave. The IFR of the 2nd wave is much more interesting because it seems that its IFR is an order or more magnitude lower in some countries.

    • Replies: @Peripatetic Commenter
  194. utu says:
    @Ron Unz

    The CDC numbers are not in %. They need to be multiplied by 100. They are form Huaser et al. paper. See Table 1 and Figure 4D in

    https://journals.plos.org/plosmedicine/article?id=10.1371/journal.pmed.1003189

    CDC has to use European data and papers to produce the estimate of IFR for the US. Interesting, right?

    • Replies: @utu
  195. utu says:
    @res

    Thanks for the link to Friston. Did you look at their paper

    https://www.fil.ion.ucl.ac.uk/spm/covid-19/Friston_medRxiv_2020.pdf

    and at the 1st panel in Figure 3? The large number of parameters they used in their model (Table 1) gives plenty of room to tweak them to agree with the data. However I do not see how their model could ‘predict’ much lower IFR in the second wave. For this reason I am very skeptical of their work.

    • Replies: @res
  196. CanSpeccy says: • Website
    @Ron Unz

    A couple of months ago, there was a big front-page story in the WSJ discussing and summarizing them. Most found an IFR of between 0.5% and 1.0%

    As a practicing scientist, it would never have occurred to me to seek the latest research findings in the pages of the WSJ, perhaps because whenever I have read a news report on something of which I have had personal knowledge, the news report always seemed wildly inaccurate.

    But could the WSJ be correct in its estimate of the IFR? Looking at numbers provided by Google for the UK, there were 3330 new “cases” on September 13, and 17 deaths 14 days later, suggesting an IFR of about o.5% uncorrected for asymptomatic cases. If we assume, as has been claimed, an asymptomatic infection rate of 40-45% then the actual IFR is at the lowermost margin of the WSJ reported range. But if one looks at the numbers of cases (4143) and deaths (1,172) for April 6 and April 20, respectively, one gets an IFR of 28% unadjusted for asymptomatic cases.

    So estimating the Covid19 IFR seems a challenging business. Either the disease has become very much less deadly since April, or the reported numbers of either cases or deaths or both have been massively in error either currently or in April or both.

    Given that there is a steep apparent downtrend in the IFR between April and September, the assumption that in the end the rate will prove to be even as high as 0.3 seems doubtful. Indeed, perhaps when the shouting is over, it will be found that experienced and seemingly very sensible specialists in the field such as Dr. Sunetra Gupta of Oxford University will prove to have made the best estimate of the IFR, i.e., in Dr. Gupta’s case, between 0.05 and o.25%. What do you think?

    • Agree: LondonBob
    • Replies: @utu
    , @Chrisnonymous
  197. Ron Unz says:

    But could the WSJ be correct in its estimate of the IFR? Looking at numbers provided by Google for the UK, there were 3330 new “cases” on September 13, and 17 deaths 14 days later, suggesting an IFR of about o.5% uncorrected for asymptomatic cases. If we assume, as has been claimed, an asymptomatic infection rate of 40-45% then the actual IFR is at the lowermost margin of the WSJ reported range. But if one looks at the numbers of cases (4143) and deaths (1,172) for April 6 and April 20, respectively, one gets an IFR of 28% unadjusted for asymptomatic cases.

    You’re missing a *gigantic* issue. As has been empirically demonstrated and as everyone agrees, there’s an absolutely enormous age-skew in the fatality rate, with victims in their 80s having an IFR perhaps as much as 1000x greater than victims in their 30s. So the IFR in any given country or study is massively impacted by the age-skew of the infected, so much so that it may be less than entirely useful to talk about a single IFR, and the pretty wide IFR dispersion among the dozens of studies discussed in the WSJ article is hardly surprising.

    Given this reality, I’m not particularly shocked by your recent UK figures…though if most of the infected were in their 70s or 80s, then I certainly would be…

    https://www.unz.com/announcement/31000-words-missing-from-the-atlantic-and-the-new-york-times-sunday-magazine/#comment-4175612

    • Replies: @CanSpeccy
    , @utu
  198. @Ron Unz

    It’s a bit embarrassing when you cannot read the numbers correctly, isn’t it.

    Didn’t you notice I mentioned the CDC?

    Well, I probably shouldn’t get drawn into the nonsense of arguing with a Flu Hoaxer retard, but I tend to doubt those numbers are correct…

    I don’t know what a Flu Hoaxer retard is, but I have never regarded SARS-CoV-2 as a hoax.

    I was prepping for things back in early February and still have some of the supplies I stocked up with.

    I also think that certain governments and government employees in this country have blood on the hands and then moved to lock down the economy to try to destroy President Trump.

    The governments I blame are those of New York and New Jersey and I think that those two states and several other Democratic Party controlled states have destroyed the livelihoods of many of their residents to try to get Trump.

    My view is we should have moved to protect the elderly (those who it was easy to predict were most vulnerable) but otherwise leave the economy open and leave it up to individuals as to what protections they wanted to take.

    I also believe we should have been advising all people to take vitamin D at a minimum along with maybe vitamin C just like Fauci is doing as a way to improve people’s immune systems.

    However, the Democrats and the #LyingMSM have been peddling panic porn, and you have also been doing that to a certain extent.

    And now we can see from the numbers the CDC have released (which I think are still high) that for everyone under 70 the risk is really quite low, and yet they insisted on destroying the livelihoods of a great many people.

  199. CanSpeccy says: • Website
    @Ron Unz

    You’re missing a *gigantic* issue. As has been empirically demonstrated and as everyone agrees, there’s an absolutely enormous age-skew in the fatality rate,

    Rubbish. The figures I quoted are total population numbers, so they reflect the actual infection frequency vesus age relationship for the population in question.

    As for:

    victims in their 80s having an IFR perhaps as much as 1000x greater than victims in their 30s.

    Everyone surely knows that. But even though age is a negative for Covid survival, the actual survival rates for over 70’s are, according to the latest CDC modeling, pretty good: between 90.7 and 97.2%.

    And for those under 50, the estimated risk even under the most unfavorable scenario is very small, less than 0.03%, which is much lower than the infection fatality rate of 0.1% estimated by Fauci et al.

  200. ogunsiron says:
    @The Alarmist

    I’m in contact with people in french speaking Switzerland and though they seem to be handling things in a saner way than in France, I was told that in that canton they were doing masks. Is it in german Switzerland that you’ve seen people handling this problem in a calm and reasonable fashion?

    Am I the only one who’s noticing that there seems to be a “german” school of epidemiology and infectiology that’s thinking very, very differently about this whole phenomenon?

    In the english speaking world in and France, covid dissenters tend to be frings people and very few “experts” dare to disagree with the orthodoxy. The few “experts” who object, both in France and in the USA, seem to be genuinely putting their careers at risk!

    In the german speaking world you seem to have a large number of very respectable, high profile people who strongly disagree with what passes for consensus here (usa/anglo world/France). I was very surprised by the huge anti-lockdown protests in Germany.

    I suspect that the swedish public health authorities follow the “german thinking” rather than the anglosphere thinking.

    In the USA, in the early days of the pandemic, german trained Dr Wittkowski said something like “we need to let kids catch it … we need herd immunity right now … it will be gone in 3 months, hospitals should be doing their job, not begging society to shield them …the epidemic has already peaked …”. It looks to me that he was very much in the right, even though what he said sounded quite shocking back in march.

    • Replies: @The Alarmist
  201. res says:
    @utu

    I had not seen that. Thanks!

    They talk a good bit about heterogeneity. Table 1 makes for a nice summary of their take on relevant model parameters. Agreed about the potential for tweaking (and/or overfitting) though.

    Could you elaborate on your IFR observation? I’m not sure that would be sufficient reason to ignore their work. As discussed above, the change in IFR has multiple possible causes.

    I am concerned that they don’t talk about seasonality at all. To my mind that is a major wildcard.

    • Replies: @utu
  202. Sean says:
    @dearieme

    https://www.preposterousuniverse.com/podcast/2020/03/09/87-karl-friston-on-brains-predictions-and-free-energy/

    Sean Carrol also had Martin Rees on his podcast

    https://longbets.org/9/
    DURATION 4 years (02017-02020)

    “A bioterror or bioerror will lead to one million casualties in a single event within a six month period starting no later than Dec 31 02020.” DETAILED TERMS »
    PREDICTOR Martin Rees CHALLENGER Steven Pinker

    Close enough.

    • Replies: @dearieme
  203. Miro23 says:
    @CanSpeccy

    Doesn’t it remind you of 9/11? Then the loss of rationality led to the loss of at least half a million lives in Iraq plus the carnage in Afghanistan. So now, why not try to think what horrors the same loss of rationality over Covid may result in.

    Reading the tea leaves leads me to the same conclusion. The main points are:

    – The MSM Covid-19 story with its Wuhan wet market, bats, virus research laboratory arrived fully formed and complete in every detail on day one – and it was pumped out at full volume. This is a characteristic of propaganda – giving the “correct” interpretation immediately, incessantly and a high volume, squashing any doubters. Exactly the same as 9/11. In that case, the planes had barely hit the towers before the MSM was trumpeting the Osama Bin Laden story complete in every detail – no investigation required.

    – The propaganda is proving to be successful, in that Western populations blame China for originating the Covid-19 trouble. And it’s being buttressed but a whole series of other anti-China stories – Huawei, embassy spying, Hong Kong, Uyghur repression etc. etc.

    – China is being set up as a target, the same way that Iraq was set up by 9/11 + WMD.

    – The public is being prepared for a ZioGlob/ CIA run False Flag operation. They’re required to call for revenge against the Chinese “aggression”. Same methodology used on 9/11 to justify military action.

    Totally crazy – but the ZioGlob can’t stand the way China won’t bend over for them + the way it’s power is growing + the fact that it’s Iran’s main trade partner with 10’s billions $ in planned investment (inc. military). Also, the ZioGlob can introduce their long desired US Emergency Government (dictatorship).

  204. CanSpeccy says: • Website

    Or what I was trying to say when I ran out of editing time was:

    And for those under 50, the estimated risk of death from Covid-19 even under the most unfavorable CDC scenario is small, around 0.03%, or less than one third the infection fatality rate for the seasonal flu as estimated by Fauci et al. in this March 2020 NEJM article.

  205. utu says:
    @res

    I checked UK data http://www.worldometers.info/coronavirus/country/uk/
    The 2nd peak will be higher than the first peak and it is about 20 weeks after the first peak. Friston has the 2nd peak 30 weeks after and its heigh is 3 times lower than than the 1st peak. So Friston is not that good after all when it comes to real prediction (not a posteriori).

    I am all for doing modeling with taking into account of heterogeneity of various parameters. The problem is that we do not know what are probability distribution of these parameters and what are their joint distribution because various parameters may correlate. So that’s why he must tweak and do a posterior prediction only which seems to work for the 1st wave. But it did not work for 2nd wave.

    I just do not see how heterogeneity could capture significant reduction in IFR in the second wave which it seems that he is initially capturing.

    He does not have a parameter for the improved medical treatment that in itself could account for about 3-fold reduction in IFR.

    Let suppose that IFR dropped also because infection rate of the very old is now lower because of awareness and countermeasures. How his model is supposed to know it that now a much lower fraction of the very old is available to the virus than in the 1st wave?

    His model does not predict well the part of the 2nd wave that came after he wrote the paper but it captures significantly lower mortality in the 2nd wave which is inexplicable as he has no parameters to tweak to account for lower IFR. That’s why I am skeptical.

  206. utu says:
    @CanSpeccy

    “whenever I have read a news report on something of which I have had personal knowledge, the news report always seemed wildly inaccurate.” – Whenever =always so you must have many examples that you could share with us or perhaps the things that you have a personal knowledge of are very few. Anyway you are plagiarizing Murray Gell-Mann. You have crossed the Wizard of Oz pretentiousness level.

    • Replies: @Wielgus
    , @CanSpeccy
  207. utu says:
    @utu

    IFR meta analysis that includes data from several American states and cities

    Assessing the Age Specificity of Infection Fatality Rates for COVID-19: Systematic Review, Meta-Analysis, and Public Policy Implications (24 September 2020)

    https://www.medrxiv.org/content/10.1101/2020.07.23.20160895v5.full.pdf

  208. utu says:
    @Ron Unz

    Given this reality, I’m not particularly shocked by your recent UK figures…though if most of the infected were in their 70s or 80s, then I certainly would be…

    I found an article that tries to deal with IFR reduction in the 2nd wave but they do not have age demographics of new cases. It should be very easy to plot new case vs time for separate age bracket but I have not seen it anywhere. The testing agencies have the data. So the authors just speculate.

    Decreased Case Fatality Rate of COVID‐19 in the Second Wave: A study in 53 countries or regions
    https://onlinelibrary.wiley.com/doi/full/10.1111/tbed.13819

    “Based on our analysis, among all 53 most affected countries or regions (Table S1), 43 had an apparent reduction in CFR, and the rest ten had an increase in CFR in opposite. ”

    ” Thus, we may wonder whether favourable weather might have contributed to a reduce CFR of COVID‐19.”

    “Individual or age‐specific data are needed to further investigate the reasons behind changing CFR. “

    They know about as much as we do.

  209. @ogunsiron

    It was in a German-speaking Canton. The evening started out with fist-bumps or elbow-taps, but there were no masks from the start. I even heard someone say, “We can’t live in fear for the rest of our lives” and couldn’t help but wonder if I was hearing an echo of the Germanic tribes. One remark I have heard in the Germanic-speaking world is, “Why is ARD quoting John Hopkins when we have the Robert Koch Institute?” The latter is still largely in the scared camp, but at least it suggests some willingness to engage in some thought independent of the Anglosphere’s downright panic. Actually, panic is not the right word … it might be better to call it the Anglosphere’s giant social experiment to see how easy it might be to return the masses to their rightful places in serfdom.

    • Thanks: Achmed E. Newman
  210. @res

    “Were it not for the test data that you get from the TV all the time, you would rightly conclude that the pandemic was over, as nothing much has happened. ”

    Of course it’s over! How can something that never, in fact, began not “be over.” It was only the relentless, “TV all the time” propagandizing and fear mongering of so-called “test data” that created the impression of a pandemic in the minds of the impressionable.

  211. @Colin Wright

    Chinese government data is solid. Read

    The quality of China’s GDP statistics☆ by Carsten A. HOLZ ⁎
    Stanford Center for International Development, Stanford University. https://www.sciencedirect.com/science/article/abs/pii/S1043951X14000753?via%3Dihub

    Quality of China’s Official Statistics: A Brief Review of Academic Perspectives
    Dmitriy Plekhanov
    DOI: https://doi.org/10.22439/cjas.v35i1.5400

  212. Wielgus says:
    @nokangaroos

    Well, they treat us verbally as animals with “herd immunity” and as felons with “lockdown”.
    The issue might be whether we accept this.

  213. Wielgus says:
    @Dr. Robert Morgan

    I suppose it is in the eye of the beholder whether it is “libertarian derangement” or “non-conformity”. But you have to be pretty conformist to have no problems with masks, social distancing, notifying the police every time you go out to shop for food etc. (The last was a feature of the Greek lockdown in the spring, which I found especially shocking.) Or very credulous towards the mass media, which may be the same thing as conformist.
    And then there are people wanting yet more restrictions…

    • Agree: Achmed E. Newman
  214. Wielgus says:
    @utu

    I have encountered news reports which I was aware from personal knowledge were pure invention. The Turkish media are particularly prone to this art form 🙂

  215. @Hypnotoad666

    I agree with your point, Mr. Toad. There is nothing very complicated in analyzing the important observational data as to how many people have “cases”, how many have died “FROM” the COVID-19 etc. People other than the supposed expert scientists may actually have a lot more information from real experience (where common sense comes from) as to how bogus this data that these experts are using in their models and pronouncements is.

    I would like to add that there is something called perspective* that should not be discounted either, and even for people who do not deal well with numbers. After some time in the world, seeing other diseases out of the Orient come and go, the “experts” with agendas telling us that we can all get AIDS just as easily as the homos and heroin addicts, and BS of all kinds out of the Lyin’ Press for their fully-awakened lives, some of us attain some perspective.

    That helps a lot, and as I wrote up top (the one with the Monty Python clip), some times you’ve gotta believe your own lying eyes in the matter. That saves a lot of sorting through bullshit.

    .

    See also “Perspective and Hysteria”.

    • Replies: @The Alarmist
  216. @Bill P

    ““Intelligence” hasn’t done us much good, apparently. Note that of all places on earth, Sub-Saharan Africa seems to have the fewest problems with coronavirus.”

    It’s not a question of intelligence or even education. Rather, as Slick Willie might have said, “It’s the propaganda, stupid.” No Covid-19 propaganda, especially no 24/7 TV Covid-19 propaganda, no problem with the Covid-19 seasonal flu. On the other hand, wherever there has been 24/7 TV Covid-19 propaganda, there there has been a manifestation of the psychological symptoms of a pandemic.

  217. dearieme says:
    @Sean

    I have no idea what sort of point you are trying to make but I do know that Martin Rees is bonkers.

    • Replies: @Sean
  218. @Achmed E. Newman

    … some times you’ve gotta believe your own lying eyes in the matter….

    I’ll take my own lyin’ eyes any day of the week, and no, I won’t try to hide them….

  219. CanSpeccy says: • Website
    @utu

    Listen dummy, you’ve been reading mass media reports about Covid-19 for almost 9 months now, yet it has still not crossed your tiny mind that the major implication of virtually all those reports is false. Covid-19 won’t kill millions and millions of otherwise healthy people as most media stories have over the past nine months consistently implied, rather, it will kill only a miniscule proportion of healthy children and healthy adults, having an infection fatality rate similar to that of the seasonal flu, as the medical literature, in articles I have cited above, prove.

    So there you have it: my pesonal knowledge of the medical literature reveals the near universal fabulation of the media. That I am not the only person to have observed the fraudulence of the media is hardly surprising.

  220. Anon[165] • Disclaimer says:
    @Peripatetic Commenter

    @“ I wonder to what extent they have also accepted the redefinition of the word ‘case’ to mean anyone who presents with symptoms or who tests positive via a PCR test?“

    ‘They’ have completely accepted anyone positive, even asymptomatic, as “sick” cases. It’s probably a way of justifying any and all political control measures. For example, Mail-in voting, unkosher demonstrations or local lockdowns in opposition-controlled cities like Madrid.

    That is why they are saying that (good quality) serological tests are than PCRs for measuring the people who actually get sick from Covid.

    An important thing to keep in mind is that, of the sick ones, 20% do need hospital care. That is to say, they would die without it. Or at least that was the number parroted in April, though it should have come down with better/earlier home treatments.

    Out of curiosity, what % of people who get the flu need hospital care?

  221. @utu

    Well, as I said upstream:

    Reading further into that paper in PLOS, I see this:

    CFR 2.4% (95% credible interval [CrI] 2.1%–2.8%), sCFR 3.7% (3.2%–4.2%), and IFR 2.9% (2.4%–3.5%).

    Does anyone else see a problem with an IFR higher than the CFR?

    I cannot understand how the IFR can be higher than the CFR.

    • Replies: @utu
  222. Bert says:
    @Jus' Sayin'...

    I am indeed dealing with an addition: Money out of thin air. It’s exhilarating to compound my equity by 10% every day even though it moves into other hands for conservation quickly. As to gambling, you are right in so far as anyone without a novel approach is up against continual retracements and confusion. Those folks are providing useful liquidity at least.

    • Replies: @Jus' Sayin'...
  223. Bert says:
    @acementhead

    You don’t seem to understand that futures markets grease the wheels of a modern economy. Farmers, ranchers, timber companies, mining companies, large construction companies, pension funds, and hedge funds working for pension funds all use them to limit their risk. A liquid market is required for that risk-reduction function, and speculators provide liquidity. If trading were taxed out of existence, much of modern commerce would falter.

  224. @Bert

    My bad. I hadn’t realized you were lampooning this kind of thinking.

  225. utu says:
    @Peripatetic Commenter

    Good catch. It does not appear to be a typo. The numbers are for China. They are from Table 1 and discussed in the section “Method and findings”. They should have addressed and discussed why their methodology could produce result where IFR>CFR. They do some modeling so the numbers are not just what was reported. They say:

    “The sensitivity analysis suggests that our proposed approach overestimates the sCFR and IFR when applied before the peak of incidence (around 27 January) and stabilizes afterward. “

  226. utu says:

    Steady decline of the initial viral load among hospitalized patients during 6+ weeks. Social distancing and widespread use of masks may have contributed to VL decline.

    Conference presentation
    https://drive.google.com/file/d/10AWAhVurFq2-R8AIvjC3sEMaN58xiLrG/view

  227. Sean says:
    @dearieme

    Linked to the relevant part of the discussion

  228. @Sean

    Thanks. Have now read on and found the link. While searching I found an interesting interview with Fauci.
    https://www.bmj.com/content/370/bmj.m3703

  229. @res

    In effect, it may be counter-productive to teach people about exponential growth, because they will imagine that such growth is inevitable, without also teaching them about synergistic effects, which shows that pretty-good-but-not-perfect precautions can often combine into an effective response.

  230. Wielgus: “… very credulous towards the mass media, which may be the same thing as conformist.”

    “The reasonable man adapts himself to the world : the unreasonable one persists in trying to adapt the world to himself. Therefore all progress depends on the unreasonable man.

    The man who listens to Reason is lost : Reason enslaves all whose minds are not strong enough to master her.”
    – George Bernard Shaw in Man and Superman, “Maxims for Revolutionists”

    Wielgus: “And then there are people wanting yet more restrictions…”

    People richly enjoy inflicting tyrannies on each other, and of course, the great mass of people are genetically predisposed to be conformists. Technological civilization selects for conformism, and would have been impossible to construct without it.

  231. utu says:

    One of the reasons Asian countries that went through 2003 SARS epidemic are big believers in masking.

    Viral load and outcome in SARS infection: The role of personal protective equipment in the emergency department (2006)
    https://www.ncbi.nlm.nih.gov/pmc/articles/PMC7126311/

    Although most of the PPE do not confer absolute protection against SARS, it seems that they may lower exposure to the virus, leading to a lower risk of secondary transmission, and be associated with relatively mild disease and a better early outcome.

    • Replies: @CanSpeccy
    , @Chrisnonymous
  232. @CanSpeccy

    It seems to me that, as a novel disease, COVID-19’s IFR must decline over time. Of course, an initial die-off of the most vulnerable that has already finished implies that the total number of exposures in spring was much higher than we assume.

    One possibility is that the summer months cause the virus to be less viable and the usual infectious dose to be smaller. In that case, we should see a higher IFR in autumn.

    It strikes me that we have had many years of influenza outbreaks to determine these kinds of dynamics. Things like the effects of seasonality on infectious doses, the impact of masks on symptom severity, and other non-pathogen-specific factors with respiratory viruses should be well understood. If they are not, it must be because the data is too difficult to analyze. For example, the actual number of flu deaths is estimated, not really known, right? I wonder if all statements about COVID-19 that depend on good data collection are overly confidant.

    • Replies: @CanSpeccy
    , @xcd
  233. CanSpeccy says: • Website
    @utu

    One of the reasons Asian countries that went through 2003 SARS epidemic are big believers in masking.

    Evidently you’re a “big believer” too, but not a careful reader. The article you reference shows a protective effect of N95 masks for health care workers dealing with SARS patients in a hospital setting. However, the article states:

    Non-hospital care workers (non-HCWs) infected in the emergency department had been wearing only surgical or cloth masks. Three of the non-HCWs transmitted the infection to secondary household contacts. Four of the non-HCWs had respiratory failure, 3 of whom died.

    So much for the non-N95 cloth masks that everyone’s supposed to wear.

    • Agree: Chrisnonymous
    • Replies: @utu
  234. CanSpeccy says: • Website
    @Chrisnonymous

    I wonder if all statements about COVID-19 that depend on good data collection are overly confidant.

    LOL. That suggests we have mightly few reliable conclusions.

    One inference worth considering, though, is that too much has been spent on protecting the Western nations from Covid-19. The cost of extending one life in America by one year is estimated at around US$100,000, (or maybe just five or ten bucks in, say, India or the Central African Republic).

    Already Covid-19 has cost the US economy something like $3 trillion, enough to add 30 million years to the lives of the population as a whole. That is surely more than Covid run rampant would have cost in lost years of life. The implication is that its time to chuck out those useless cloth masks that Utu’s trying to BS us about and let everyone get back to work, school, etc., while greater resources are devoted to extending life by means unrelated to Covid-19.

    • Replies: @Chrisnonymous
  235. @utu

    Patient 3 & 7, very young females, skew the age average for the non-HCW group. If you remove them, it’s obvious that the non-HCWs were much older as a group than the HCW, the oldest of whom was 30. Moreover, the deaths and intubations correlated with age and co-morbidity among the non-HCW group.

    More important for the outcomes of this study, I can’t see an attempt to analyze the groups by age rather than PPE status. For example, we see average nasal shedding for the two groups, but if the nasal shedding in the two young non-HCW was similar to the HCW, this would make the paper just as a strong a case for the effects of age as for the effects of PPE.

    Also, important for the conclusions being drawn, there is no examination of the households even though the claim of differences in household transmission is made. The HCW are all young. Are they living alone? What about in the non-HCW group? Perhaps household transmission only in occurred in cases where there were actual households!

    Finally, as in most of the papers that are used to support universal masking, it has the exceptional drawback of being a hospital-based study used to support general public health measures. The HCW were not wearing masks, they were wearing N95 masks along with full-body isolation equipment, including goggles in some cases. So the applicability of the conclusions is suspect.

    Moreover, we are being asked to believe that all outcomes are due to a difference in initial viral innoculum, but we have no way to measure that. It is reasonable to assume that the HCW should have been exposed to higher amounts of virus, but really this is just speculation. For example, perhaps the patient zero turned his head to cough in the presence of HCW and the other non-HCW patients were all down wind of his cough in the ED. Moreover, as I pointed out, clinical outcomes were correlated with age and co-morbidity–and so we have to wonder about the other measurements. If viral load and shedding also correlated with age and co-morbidity, what is the chance that this was caused by the initial innoculum in the ED?

    I agree that the logic behind mask wearing is strong. The research to support it is much weaker. And the speculation that East Asian countries’ differences from Europe and the USA are due to masking is just that–speculation. As in much else, Sweden is an outlier that contradicts the hypothesis. But so, and this is little remarked on, is China–another East Asian country that tried desperately to mask itself but suffered a severe outbreak nonetheless. As someone who has travelled throughout China and in Korea, Singapore, and Japan, and who watched the news out of China from the beginning of the outbreak, I would say that there are many other factors that make China more like the west than like other East Asian countries–general hygiene, natural social space, public physical contact, public speaking and loudness of speaking, diet, and weight and general physical activity all come to mind.

    I think masking is prudent situationally, but it the idea that it is the definite single factor explaining Japan’s or Singapore’s successes is wrong. In that vein, I would like to ask also about the statements you made a few times about Japan’s “90% religious compliance”. Is this data from research or just based on your personal impressions?

    • Replies: @utu
    , @xcd
  236. @CanSpeccy

    I agree completely. However, as a debate strategy, I suggest it is mistaken to explain the concept in terms of dollars per life year or GDP. Some people like utu are unable to get past the idea of a lives for bucks trade-off to see the deeper meaning of that. More helpful is to talk about trade-offs between current health and deaths and future health and deaths.

    Also important to point out is that utu et al’s all-in-on-masks-baseline-health-denialism has squandered an opportunity to push for behavioral changes and perhaps some policy changes and food-industry re-structuring that are sorely needed in the USA.

    • Replies: @CanSpeccy
    , @utu
  237. utu says:
    @CanSpeccy

    The article is about viral load reduction by masks leading to milder course of disease and lower infectiousness which Taiwanese observed during 2003 SARS so no wonder they were so religious about masks during Covid-19.

    As far as the N95 masks some cloth masks outperform them particularly for smaller particles because NIOSH specs of 95% apply to particles larger than 300 nm. There is problems of “the gap” if teh mask are not tightly worn. This applies to N95 mask as well. See Fig. 4 in

    https://www.ncbi.nlm.nih.gov/pmc/articles/PMC7185834/
    Aerosol Filtration Efficiency of Common Fabrics Used in Respiratory Cloth Masks

    “These cloth hybrids are slightly inferior to the N95 mask above 300 nm, but superior for particles smaller than 300 nm. The N95 respirators are designed and engineered to capture more than 95% of the particles that are above 300 nm and therefore, their underperformance in filtering particles below 300 nm is not surprising.”

    Table 1: Filtration Efficiencies of Various
    N95 (with gap): 34% (300nm)

  238. CanSpeccy says: • Website
    @Chrisnonymous

    Re: a squandered opportunity to push for policy changes and food-industry re-structuring.

    Yes, a tax on sugar might be a good idea as a means to combat obesity, a co-factor driving Covid-19 mortality.

    US consumption of sugar has risen from 10 pounds a year one hundred years ago to over 100 lbs today, or enough to provide one third of an adult’s need for food calories. At a couple of dollars per pound such a tax would force processed food manufacturers to bulk up their products with something cheaper than sugar.

    And this paper: Public Health Lessons Learned From Biases in Coronavirus Mortality Overestimation provides striking evidence of bad data driving bad Covid epidemic response decisions.

    The article relates how, in March of this year, the National Institute of Allergy and Infectious Diseases, provided Congress with a ten-fold overestimation of Covid-19 mortality relative to that of the seasonal flu due to an apparent confusion between Infection Fatality Rate and Case Fatality Rate (CFR). In fact, so the article states, the CFR of Covid-19 is no higher than that of the seasonal flu.

    • Thanks: Chrisnonymous
  239. utu says:
    @Chrisnonymous

    “..utu et al’s all-in-on-masks-baseline-health-denialism has squandered an opportunity to push for behavioral changes …”

    Not sure that I understand but the failure in America and Europe rests on the shoulders of WHO, CDC, Surgeon General and politicians. Initially the masking was not recommended and even contraindicated by various officials. It took CDC eight months to come around to Taiwanese and Japanese position about the universal masking:

    CDC director Robert Redfield said face masks may be more effective than a vaccine in preventing individual coronavirus infections
    https://www.businessinsider.com/cdc-director-masks-better-than-vaccines-at-stopping-coronavirus-2020-9

    The chief reason of failure was that a false alternative was presented: the herd immunity or curve flattening which basically were both fatalistic de facto stating that who must die will die either sooner or a bit later. The curve flattering was too meek and not ambitious enough. The objective should have been the target of stopping the epidemic in each country to the point of virus elimination.

    Lockdowns were not strict enough and there was no call for universal masking and the social distancing was not sufficiently well explained and implemented. For instance in NYC they reduced number of subway trains that resulted in unchanged passenger density with much lower passenger volume.

    What does the universal masking do? It lowers R0 but also reduces the viral load which mean reduction of mortality at a given infection rate.

    Masks Do More Than Protect Others During COVID-19: Reducing the Inoculum of SARS-CoV-2 to Protect the Wearer (Jul 2020)
    https://www.ncbi.nlm.nih.gov/pmc/articles/PMC7393808/

    Facial Masking for Covid-19 — Potential for “Variolation” as We Await a Vaccine, The New England Journal of Medicine
    https://www.nejm.org/doi/pdf/10.1056/NEJMp2026913?articleTools=true

    Also I want to comment on what you have written: “…an initial die-off of the most vulnerable that has already finished…” which suggests you belong to the fatalists who tend to fall for acuasal fallacies. They were not vulnerable but more importantly they were accessible to high viral load infections. There are many times more vulnerable people left because hight viral load infection access to them was denied. They are still vulnerable.

    • Replies: @Chrisnonymous
  240. utu says:

    Nihil sub sole novum: San Francisco 1919

  241. refl says:

    I was in favour of the initial lockdown. Though implemented a bit late, it gave us all a chance to reduce the spread of the virus, manage the clinical load in hospitals, and generally buy time to find out what treatments worked, and which vaccines were worth developing. It was high cost, possibly even in terms of unintended health costs, but understandable in the circumstances. If the supreme function of statesmanship is to provide against preventable evils, then the Government tried to do that. Better safe than sorry. Dead relatives will be remembered more fiercely than national debts, and governments suffer if they don’t manage blame cleverly.

    I do still respect the Unz Review for its uniquely challenging articles on a number of topics that have been haunting me – and I am not exaggerating – for decades. It helped me to find proper perspectives on quite a number of issues. But this is getting to much. We are half a year into the willfull destruction of anything that made Western society a place worth living in. The Corona-believers are so scared that they wear masks where ever they go. It is such a heartbreaking sight to watch elderly people who have so little left to live for, as they push their cards along the sidewalk with masks in their faces.
    We have children who have to wear masks for entire schooldays. If they are lucky, one day they will overcome their trauma, if they are not, their brains will degenerate before they even grow up, as they cannot breathe. I hear of cases where children have collapsed and died because of the masks. We all know the images of corona protesters being beaten up by the police while BLM is celebrating the destruction of entire neighbourhoods.

    And still there are articles here that dare call this derranged policy ‘statesmanship’ and who seriously insinuate that governments care about the lifelyhood of their people.

    I dare not comment further. What Mr. Unz is doing here leaves me speachless.
    Certainly it is a challenging to see such a monumental intellectual authority selfdestruct in such a way.

    • Replies: @Achmed E. Newman
  242. utu says:
    @Chrisnonymous

    I realize that the study is imperfect but it may reflect the thinking and attitudes about the masks among the Taiwanese which influenced their response to Covid-19. The experience with SARS in 2002/2003 often was cited as the reason why Taiwanese were so compliant about masking and other countermeasures. And now after the Covid-19 experience they will believe in masking even more:

    Masks and medical care: Two keys to Taiwan’s success in preventing COVID-19 spread
    https://www.ncbi.nlm.nih.gov/pmc/articles/PMC7270822/

    Japan: “90% religious compliance” ? – I saw the number somewhere though it was not a scientific paper. It is believable:

    The history behind Japan’s love of face masks
    https://www.japantimes.co.jp/news/2020/07/04/national/science-health/japans-history-wearing-masks-coronavirus/

  243. CanSpeccy says: • Website

    The article is about viral load reduction by masks leading to milder course of disease

    No it is not. As I indicated, the article I referred to that you had cited reports that emergency room staff with cloth masks were not protected from infection from SARS patients, and indeed died of the infection, though not before passing the infection to members of their families. Clearly cloth mask are more likely to inspire false confidence than provide effective protection from Covid-19.

    But of course a cloth mask will intercept some aerosol particles. Even a chain link fence will do that. The fact is, though, that most aerosol particles will pass through a cloth mask which means that such a mask will not prevent infection by airborne respiratory droplets.

    N95 masks do, apparently work to protect against infection by airborne particles, but here in Canada, at least, the Government dictates that N95 are for use by medical staff only. Apparently it is beyond the genius of Silicon Valley, MIT and every Western nation combined to produce N95 masks except in minuscule quantities sufficient only for medical staff.

    • Replies: @utu
    , @Chrisnonymous
  244. @res

    I’m still waiting for the virus that turns people into zombies.

    Toilet paper zombies
    Attack of the Mask Wearing Zombies

    • Replies: @Peripatetic Commenter
  245. @Astuteobservor II

    forced mandatory mask wearing for 3 months

    It’s September 28 now. Three months ago is June 28. New York for example had a mask “rule” since April 16. Thats five months. Can they stop wearing masks now?

    • LOL: Mark G.
    • Replies: @Astuteobservor II
  246. utu says:
    @CanSpeccy

    “… but here in Canada, at least, the Government dictates that N95 are for use by medical staff only… ” – One would think that you are N95 mask fetishist except that everybody knows that you are an old windbag who argues in bad faith to compensate his neural age related depletion and his growing irrelevance. Old age is a bitch. But some handle it with dignity. Check the article I havre linked. Fabric masks can be as good or even better for particles below 300 nm than N95.

    • Replies: @CanSpeccy
    , @Chrisnonymous
  247. Adûnâi says: • Website
    @Dr. Robert Morgan

    > “What you are here stigmatizing as libertarian derangement syndrome I have referred to as having a non-conformist personality.”

    I’m confused. Are the dutiful, obedient racist mask-wearers (such as myself) sociopathic and conformist at the same time? This seems like a mess. I would object that among the cuckservatards such as here on the Unz Review, wearing a mask is a sign of non-conformity.

    It is in liberal neo-Christian America that wearing a mask has by chance been connected to worshipping Negroes. But in any sane society, wearing a mask would be a mark of a racist serving his people – such as in the DPR of Korea.

  248. @refl

    Refl, first of all, I think the same way about the cultural, psychological, political, and economic damage this Kung Flu stupidity, that is the Infotainment Panic-fest brought by it, has done. Nice job here!

    Regarding Mr. Unz and this site. Yes, he is a Kung Flu freak about it, like a lot of ’em, but I’ll give him credit for always trying to look at the numbers. The problem is that numerical results from models by experts don’t mean jack squat when the basic numbers that they start with are bogus.

    People with some perspective and experience, who get out, observe, and talk to people about what’s really going on, know WHY these numbers are bogus. It’s the most important number there is, fatalities per case of this disease. Shoot, the denominator has not been defined. What’s a case, exactly? Then the numerator, how many people died FROM this disease, is also very vague and fudged due to lots of incentives.

    OK, I got digressed again. Mr. Unz’s site, however, has viewpoints on all sides of this issue. Of all people, he signed up Mrs. Michelle Malkin to have her column here, right at the time she wrote about 5 articles criticizing exactly what you and I have! (Maybe Mr. Unz just fucked up, cause I have no idea what he would agree with Michelle Malkin, a Libertarian-Conservative like myself, on.) You’ve got C.J. Hopkins and Mike Whitney who have written on our side of this divide. I don’t know what those 2 normally write about, but they’d done a bang-up job on this. Ron Paul has also written his common sense Libertarian perspective on this Panic-Fest and Totalitarian power grab.

    Anyway, Refl, Mr. Unz’s own opinions on this issue and lots of other issues aside, he does a great service by having this site up. I appreciate the chance to comment, even, maybe ESPECIALLY under articles like this one, but also his hosting of Steve Sailer’s, Audacious Epigone’s, and Paul Kersey’s blogs, and some good columnists like John Derbyshire, Pat Buchanan, now Michelle Malkin, even Fred Reed (sort of), and especially my man Ron Paul. Believe me, if it were just the Commie and anti-all-things-American side that was all that was here, I would not be on here at all.

  249. @Hippopotamusdrome

    I guess I have become He Who Must Not Be Named!

  250. @Achmed E. Newman

    Yes, despite my disagreement with Ron about some aspects of his reporting on the Covid-19 pandemic, I really appreciate the work he has done on this site and the real diversity of views that he allows to be publish here.

    I think his American Pravda series is very, very good!

  251. CanSpeccy says: • Website
    @utu

    LOL.

    Insults, irrelevance and diversion. The usual Unz attack dog routine.

  252. Adûnâi: “Are the dutiful, obedient racist mask-wearers (such as myself) sociopathic and conformist at the same time? This seems like a mess. I would object that among the cuckservatards such as here on the Unz Review, wearing a mask is a sign of non-conformity.”

    Conformity is relative to the context. For example, racists are non-conformists when considered as a minority element within the larger society, but not among themselves. Likewise with mask-wearers. At least where I live, mask-wearing is virtually universally complied with, even though there is no law requiring it, and many businesses don’t enforce it. This demonstrates the conformist nature of most people. They are, as Wm. Pierce used to say, lemmings.

    Also, even among racists, fascists, ideologues of any sort, or even mask-wearers, some are more “pure” than others. Some racists may harbor a few anti-racist sentiments, some may be fascist but not yet completely totalitarian, some mask-wearers don’t really take it seriously and wear their masks sloppily or intermittently, etc. So like other items in psychology, conformism runs a spectrum. Some have more conformist personalities than others.

    • Replies: @Adûnâi
  253. Adûnâi says: • Website
    @Dr. Robert Morgan

    > ” At least where I live, mask-wearing is virtually universally complied with, even though there is no law requiring it, and many businesses don’t enforce it. This demonstrates the conformist nature of most people.”

    An interesting take on this is that I think I can imagine better, and thus I am not shocked to see people wearing masks. (I live in a fantasy land?) Maybe those who are also lack imagination? Or the abstract thinking required to act in reaction to the invisible, to statistics? Or are too stunted to enforce their views in reality? And are unable to delay gratification (moderate breath-play in a mask is less kinky than outright asphyxiation by Corona). (I.e., mask-rejecters are inhibited and dumb. QED.)

    By the way, here in Ukraine I’m using respirator РЕ3.

  254. Adûnâi: “… mask-rejecters are inhibited and dumb.”

    There are indeed plenty of high-IQ lemmings, as I mentioned here:

    https://www.unz.com/anepigone/mask-up-miscreant/#comment-4140802

    Conformism as a personality trait should be assessed not just with respect to a single characteristic, since a man may conform to majority opinion in most things but not in a few others. However, if you find that you are constantly in disagreement with the majority opinion, and especially if this disagreement has significantly impacted your life, you probably have a non-conformist personality.

    • Replies: @CanSpeccy
  255. refl says:
    @Achmed E. Newman

    This site indeed provides a unique opportunity to learn that universally accepted opinion, that calls itself informed and above any doubt can be – and often IS dead wrong.

    That is why I cannot get over the coronaism as it is presented here. I knew from day one that corona was fake, just as I have seen BSE to be fake, as I knew it about pig flu,bird flu and all the like. In the end, when governments call on you to freak out, standard procedure for any sane person is to pass it by.
    My missunderstanding as usual has been to underestimate the energy of the Powers to be to force through their agenda. It has become life threatening for all of us and it is devouring this site.

    This is no good.

    • Replies: @Philip Owen
  256. CanSpeccy says: • Website
    @Dr. Robert Morgan

    if you find that you are constantly in disagreement with the majority opinion… you probably have a non-conformist personality.

    Or maybe you have rational grounds to believe, as did Winston Churchill, that:

    The best argument against democracy is a five-minute conversation with the average voter

    or muzzle-wearing Covid terror dupe.

    • Agree: acementhead
  257. @CanSpeccy

    One quibble… Basically, I agree with your assessment, but the groups in that study weren’t N95 vs cloth mask emergency room workers, they were N95-masked emergency room workers vs cloth-masked emergency room patients, I believe. But your basic interpretation of the paper (it says cloth masks were not effective) is correct.

    The paper is interesting because, as I pointed out above, it basically predicts our current pandemic–those in the last decades of life died or were intubated, those in middle decades got sick and passed on the illness, and younger people were fine. If I had been an editor for the journal that published that paper, I would have made them publish data for all subjects (there were less than 20) rather than just group averages. The only possible point that the paper has to make is that maybe N95 masks reduce 20-year-olds viral load/shedding vis-a-vis cloth masks, but we can’t tell if that’s true because only the group averages are published.

    FYI, the N95 masks produced for the construction industry are just as effective for viruses as the medical ones. The difference is that the medical ones are designed to continue being effective when wet (from blood, sputum, etc) but the construction ones only work while dry, but this is not an issue for those who don’t work in the hospital. All the N95 masks work by forces like electrostatic cling attracting the virus particles to the fibers –they don’t work like a colander or sieve–which is why the issue of wetting is important.

    Plus, the N95 masks really only work if fitted correctly, which requires two people and an instrument, so the public can’t do much with them anyway.

    • Replies: @Philip Owen
  258. @utu

    This is a more recent article so it may be more up to date,but I surveyed mask articles and technology back in March/April, and this was not the general consensus of articles, which generally found that woven materials were very poor. Since this article is published in the middle of a politically-charged pandemic, I am skeptical.

  259. @utu

    You either refuse or fail to understand the criticisms that CanSpeccy and I made of the ED cluster paper you posted. Contrary to showing that universal masking prevents symptom severity and spread of disease, it shows that masking did not prevent severity or spread of disease among the non-HCW group (which was masked). Moreover, if you drill down to look at the individual patients in the study, it’s obvious that it was the old and sick who had problems. If the authors had published the individual nasal swab results from each patient, and if the results from the 2 young non-HCW were in line with the HCW group, the paper would actually show that it was age alone and not masking that made the difference in severity and disease spread–in other words the condition of the patients and not actions.

    That is only one paper, but the fact that the actual conclusions to be drawn are almost 180 degrees from what you claimed demonstrates the potential problems with the other “mask variolation” papers you posted, which are not true review papers but opinion pieces dressed up with citations–are their citations presented as accurately as you presented the ED paper?

    they were accessible to high viral load infections

    You don’t know that and in fact it is likely that is not true by your own masking variolation theory. It is highly doubtful that the nursing homes where many of the deaths were taking place did not implement isolation precautions.

    Plus, there is basically zero evidence about the non-nursing home patients. Your mask variolation theory is that the mask reduces the size of the viral inoculum enough to prevent disease severity and reduce shedding. But you have no evidence about the number of particles people were exposed to or even if sick people became sick after one large exposure or multiple small ones. Perhaps viral shedding and disease severity is from initial exposure size or maybe it’s from the body’s ability to deal with the virus. Even in something as controlled as the ED cluster paper, there is no evidence presented about the size of the exposure. Imagine, for example, that the 91 year old patient who died was exposed to 10 viral particles and the 20 year old patients without symptoms were exposed to 1000 viral particles. Even if masks reduce the load by 80%, there is still a gross imbalance. Can you say 10 and 1000 are not the cases? You can’t.

    Your talk of fallacies and deontology is pointless. The demographics of patients show quite clearly that vulnerability is linked to age and co-morbidities except in a few unfortunate cases, and turning society upside down for those is making the trade-offs in health and overall happiness that you don’t seem to understand.

    • Replies: @utu
  260. @refl

    Neil Ferguson and what can only be called “climate” modelling is the common link between BSE, Foor & Mouth, Swine Flu and SARS-CoV-2.

  261. @Chrisnonymous

    The KN95’s I sourced from China actually tested at 99.7% particle blockage. ie KN99. I find them easy to fit. I use them not masks.

  262. dearieme says:

    There’s obviously vast amounts still unknown about the characteristics if this virus, but I think it’s by now reasonably clear that (i) overall, it’s about as deadly as a particularly bad flu season, and (ii) it picks disproportionately on the old and ill.

    (ii) is unmitigated good news: it doesn’t kill, say, a ten year old, and deny him perhaps sixty or more years of healthy life, with perhaps a further ten years of life albeit in declining health. Instead it picks on an eighty-five year old with a low life expectancy, and that expectancy being of low quality years. It would be inhumane not to welcome this effect.

    I think I’ve also probably learnt enough to be firm on several points:

    (a) We need a different architecture for hospitals, with devoted infectious disease pavilions so that the infection can be kept out of general hospitals.

    (b) In spite of its being almost universally agreed, it’s probably correct that we should be aiming restrictions on socialising at defending the old and ill, not the mass of the population. We should interfere with the masses only if we can justify it in terms of defending granny.

    (c) The health, social, and economic costs of lockdown have been humungous – so much so that it was probably a mistake.

    (d) In Britain at least the GPs, hospital doctors, and schoolteachers should be ordered to get working. If shop assistants can work, so can highly paid people on the government payroll.

    Two big worries remain for me:

    (1) How bad is the disease at causing long term illness in those who survive it – compared, for instance, with any equivalent effect of a serious flu season?

    (2) What is to be done about the poor quality of scientific advice that government (at least in Britain) has been subjecting itself to? I refer not only to mathematical modelling charlatans, but the platoons of epidemiologists/public health specialists who have (in my guess) made bloody fools of themselves.

    • Agree: CanSpeccy, Mark G.
    • Replies: @Philip Owen
  263. dearieme says:

    Now here’s an interesting piece.
    https://www.theatlantic.com/health/archive/2020/09/k-overlooked-variable-driving-pandemic/616548/

    Like many another piece, though, it leaves me wondering – what will happen when a Singapore or a New Zealand opens its borders again? I suppose you could say that by the time they open their borders more will be known about the disease.

    Interestingly I don’t remember anyone advancing that as a good reason for travel bans, quarantines, and lockdowns – defer the evil day until we have more knowledge.

  264. res says:
    @dearieme

    Thanks. Some of us were talking about k back in May (ic1000 gets credit for starting the discussion which led to this comment).
    https://www.unz.com/isteve/cdc-finally-admits-touching-things-less-risky-than-talking-to-people/#comment-3919908

    Basically, k is a measure of heterogeneity. Which I have been harping on for the last four months.

    I am happy to see this get some traction in the popular press. Though not numerical, I thought the Atlantic article was good. If anyone wants numbers see the papers referenced in my comment linked above.

    • Replies: @dearieme
    , @utu
  265. dearieme says:
    @res

    Res, you may be just the chap to ask. What is the crossover age for Covid-19?

    By that I mean that if someone took the age distribution for death by flu in a bad year and plotted it out, and then superimposed the equivalent curve for Covid-19, at what age would the lines cross?

    70-ish? 75-ish?

    • Replies: @res
    , @Philip Owen
  266. @dearieme

    Totallly agree. As I indicated above, we could literally spend £10’s million per person who has died on shielding and come out ahead.

    The political leadership were not to know this at the beginning but they should have stuck to the plan (shelter+herd immunity) not allowed climatologists like Neil Ferguson to panic them.

    • Replies: @res
  267. res says:
    @dearieme

    My sense is the crossover (flu having a higher fatality rate than COVID, right?) occurs in children. I did an initial analysis in this comment which I thought indicated no crossover.
    https://www.unz.com/jthompson/critical-care-of-fatness/#comment-3854376

    But that was before I knew the relative numbers for children.
    https://www.unz.com/isteve/a-big-question/#comment-3906569

    BTW, I think I come off as a know it all here sometimes. That last comment provides a good look at my response to someone convincing me to change my mind.

    What is your take on the crossover?

    P.S. The usual argument I see for higher flu fatality in children is the virus being novel to them. Which seems like an interesting point to ponder when considering the novelty of COVID-19.

  268. @dearieme

    I don’t kno wbutI know that in Wales, no one under 45 has died OF Covid. My guess is maybe 70.

  269. utu says:
    @res

    “I am happy to see this get some traction in the popular press. Though not numerical, I thought the Atlantic article was good.” – Yes, but the following is misleading “Why, for instance, was there such an enormous death toll in northern Italy, but not the rest of the country?” A simple answer is because infection Arte in S. Italy was much much lower. There is no reason to assume that N. and S. Italy are significantly different in terms of dispersion of parameters. Once the epidemic began and people became aware of it they began to modify their behavior by increasing social distancing and wearing masks and so on which led to shrinking (narrowing) of the distributions of social mobility and immune susceptibility. The potential super spreaders in the S. Italy became less likely to be so. The S. Italy could have become N. Italy if people were oblivious to the epidemic.

  270. res says:
    @Philip Owen

    As I indicated above, we could literally spend £10’s million per person who has died on shielding and come out ahead.

    That is what boggles my mind. For the level of financial damage being caused we could surely come up with more effective solutions.

    • Replies: @canspeccy
  271. utu says:
    @Chrisnonymous

    You either refuse or fail to understand the criticisms that CanSpeccy and I made …

    The Taiwanese paper I posted (#237) reflects the beliefs of Taiwanese regardless of the quality of the paper. They concluded:

    Although most of the PPE do not confer absolute protection against SARS, it seems that they may lower exposure to the virus, leading to a lower risk of secondary transmission, and be associated with relatively mild disease and a better early outcome.

    In #237 I wrote “One of the reasons Asian countries that went through 2003 SARS epidemic are big believers in masking.” and in #248 “I realize that the study is imperfect but it may reflect the thinking and attitudes about the masks among the Taiwanese which influenced their response to Covid-19. The experience with SARS in 2002/2003 often was cited as the reason why Taiwanese were so compliant about masking and other countermeasures. ”

    Your mask variolation theory is that the mask reduces the size of the viral inoculum enough to prevent disease severity and reduce shedding.

    The theory is not mine. I like it though because it has some explanatory power, however it has not been proven yet.

    Masks Do More Than Protect Others During COVID-19: Reducing the Inoculum of SARS-CoV-2 to Protect the Wearer (Jul 2020)
    https://www.ncbi.nlm.nih.gov/pmc/articles/PMC7393808/

    Facial Masking for Covid-19 — Potential for “Variolation” as We Await a Vaccine, The New England Journal of Medicine
    https://www.nejm.org/doi/pdf/10.1056/NEJMp2026913?articleTools=true

    Your talk of fallacies and deontology is pointless. The demographics of patients show quite clearly that vulnerability is linked to age and co-morbidities…

    This is true but but you would have to go through numbers and demonstrate that the first wave depleted the pool of vulnerable (old and co-morbidities) to justify the statement you made: “…an initial die-off of the most vulnerable that has already finished…” The die-off appears to be finished not because we ran out of the vulnerables. There are plenty of them left.

    I respect your position (#241):

    I agree that the logic behind mask wearing is strong. The research to support it is much weaker. And the speculation that East Asian countries’ differences from Europe and the USA are due to masking is just that–speculation.

    I think masking is prudent situationally, but it the idea that it is the definite single factor explaining Japan’s or Singapore’s successes is wrong.

    As far as the masks and their efficacy I do not think that numbers obtained from various tests using NaCl particles are what we really want. We want tests using infectious patients and mask worn as people normally do. There is the gap issue for all masks. Here I found 2013 paper (I know you do not trust 2020 papers) on surgical masks that actually measures number of viruses shed by patients.:

    Influenza Virus Aerosols in Human Exhaled Breath: Particle Size, Culturability, and Effect of Surgical Masks
    https://journals.plos.org/plospathogens/article?id=10.1371/journal.ppat.1003205

    “We sought to determine the total number of viral RNA copies present in exhaled breath and cough aerosols, whether the RNA copies in fine particle aerosols represent infectious virus, and whether surgical facemasks reduce the amount of virus shed into aerosols by people infected with seasonal influenza viruses.”

    “Overall, masks produced a 3.4 fold (95% CI 1.8 to 6.3) reduction in viral aerosol shedding. “

  272. dearieme says:
    @res

    flu having a higher fatality rate than COVID, right?

    Really, is it now clear that the infection fatality rate for a bad flu year is higher than Covid? I didn’t know that.

    OK, so choose a flu year where they two are about equally fatal.

    Hm: pause – but should allowance be made for differing infectivity? Or is that so uncertain it should just be ignored?

    • Replies: @CanSpeccy
  273. canspeccy says: • Website
    @res

    For the level of financial damage being caused we could surely come up with more effective solutions.

    Why not give people the best available information and let them decide for themselves how to respond? The panic-stricken Covid whimps will complain that my doing as I like endangers them, but they can wear an Utu-approved super cloth masks, or just stay home in perpetual terror. And there should be public education to minimize the endangerment of others by those going about their legitimate business and legal action against those who unreasonably endanger others.

    • Replies: @res
  274. canspeccy says: • Website
    @res

    The usual argument I see for higher flu fatality in children is the virus being novel to them. Which seems like an interesting point to ponder when considering the novelty of COVID-19.

    There is evidence that up to 60% of the population has T-cell immunity to Covid19. This is likely the result of prior exposure to other corona viruses, in particular the common cold. Most children have had one or probably many colds, which may thus protect them from Covid19. But children who die from a flu infection most likely have not previously encountered the flu virus which is not a corona virus..

    • Replies: @Philip Owen
  275. @dearieme

    This reminds me of all those people trying to find the single gene responsible for intelligence or the single gene responsible for the difference in intelligence between groups.

    The reality, IMO, is that there is no single factor (R0 or k or any other single factor) that allows us to explain the differences in mortality.

    I suspect that it is a combination of factors, including age, Vitamin D levels, R0 and k and maybe other things.

  276. @res

    P.S. The usual argument I see for higher flu fatality in children is the virus being novel to them. Which seems like an interesting point to ponder when considering the novelty of COVID-19.

    The reality seems to be that only the Spike protein on SARS-CoV-2 is novel. The rest of it is just a Corona virus and we have had possibly thousands of years of experience with Corona viruses.

  277. res says:

    flu having a higher fatality rate than COVID, right?

    Really, is it now clear that the infection fatality rate for a bad flu year is higher than Covid? I didn’t know that.

    I think this means I misunderstood your original question. Or asked a confusing parenthetical question.

    I was referring to a higher age group IFR for a bad flu year vs. COVID. Which I think would only occur in children.

    That was why I felt a bit confused by your original question (hence my parenthetical question).

    What is the crossover age for Covid-19?

    By that I mean that if someone took the age distribution for death by flu in a bad year and plotted it out, and then superimposed the equivalent curve for Covid-19, at what age would the lines cross?

    70-ish? 75-ish?

    Have I elaborated enough for you to point out my misunderstanding? If not, maybe you could rephrase your question?

    • Replies: @dearieme
  278. res says:
    @canspeccy

    I tend to agree with that philosophy, but I do see problems on the boundaries. For example.

    Some people are idiots. Though perhaps this would be adequately covered by legal action.
    https://www.dailymail.co.uk/news/article-8771765/Icelands-infection-rate-spikes-French-tourists-blamed.html

    There may be situations where people with differing risk tolerances need to interact closely (e.g. workplaces, employee/customer interactions, families!). Having a uniform set of rules can be useful rather than making each situation a new negotiation. Perhaps a few different protocols people could choose from and then either choose to interact or not?

    I am much more sympathetic to relatively short term measures taken while we were still getting a handle on things compared to this endless theater.

    • Replies: @Peripatetic Commenter
  279. @res

    I am much more sympathetic to relatively short term measures taken while we were still getting a handle on things compared to this endless theater.

    Speaking of measures, and since the CDC seems to be in the business of making recommendations for how to deal with SARS-CoV-2, why didn’t they recommend the measures Fauci himself is taking, to wit, taking Vitamin D and Vitamin C?

    Is Fauci taking useless measures with no scientific basis? If so, why is he such a senior member of NIAID?

  280. CanSpeccy says: • Website
    @dearieme

    Really, is it now clear that the infection fatality rate for a bad flu year is higher than Covid? I didn’t know that.

    You will see in the chart (after 7 min 36 seconds) in this video produced by The Spectator that UK Covid19 deaths are now running well below deaths due to either flu or pneumonia.

    There follows, at 9 min 26 seconds an interview with Dr. Sunetra Gupta, Oxford University epidemiologist who argues that lockdown does not resolve the problem that Covid presents, which must eventually be faced, and means accepting an “endemic equilibrium such as we enjoy with influenza …”, which she says, can be achieved by allowing the virus to circulate while protecting the vulnerable.

    So she is saying herd immunity is the end game, and as she has argued in various publications herd immunity may already have been reached in parts of Britain where serological surveys indicate up to 20% of the population have Covid antibodies, while up to 60% may have T-Cell immunity from infection by virtue of exposure to other corona viruses.

  281. Chinaman says:

    Our doctors, scientists and politicians are all facing tough tests of problem-solving ability. There are precedents, principles, methods, and a large dollop of uncertainty, so no shortage of options.

    It was definitely a test of national IQ and should I say, difference in IQ between the races.

    It was supposed to be a 2 week event. Lockdown, test everyone and quarantine the sick. You eliminate it in a month, as China did, it is the best compromise and trade-off between economic damage and loss of life. It is so simple but somehow whites and blacks can’t seem to do it! How the West have failed so miserably in such a simple task when compared to Asia, especially China is just mind boggling and sad.

    What I realise is that White people have time preference and executive functions of 5 year old Chinese children and act like man-childs that never grew out of their teenage rebellion. These arguments about whether to wear a mask or to lockdown is like arguments between a kid and a parent trying to convince him to brush his teeth b4 bed. I think some good old spanking will be good for these misbehaving white people. This is not to mention the psychos who really believe 5G caused COVID and set fire to 5G base station. I know the West is lacking behind in 5G compared to China but there is no need to be jealous and revert to witch-hunt barbarism.

    You guys look like idiots to the Chinaman.

    Btw, don’t ever dare to talk to the Chinaman about human rights or Xinjiang when white people would sacrifice their weak and old so they can “go out to the pub for a drink.” this seems to be the only thing the author wants! That’s the kind of psychopathy and insouciance that explains the horrors of slavery and genocide. 2 inventions that white people brought to the new world. It is unbearable hypocrisy to talk about human rights when governments and politicians are ordering people to “ don’t go to the hospitals”, just stay home and die.

    Finally, COVID is an IQ test and it would be interesting to standardise the slope of R or infection rate of each country to a 15 point Z-score and calculate the national IQ. I think it will be in line with what we know…that there is an racial gap in intelligence between Asians and Whites and Chinese are the smartest people in the world.

    • Replies: @CanSpeccy
    , @utu
  282. dearieme says:
    @res

    Ah, I think I was being dim. You’re right: what I want to know is when the lines cross so that the flu line ducks under the Covid line. If the public were told that a (bad year) flu is deadlier than Covid for people under (?) 70 then they might acquire a sense of proportion.

    Presumably in the nature of things we can’t know much about long term post-Covid morbidity but I’m struck that I’ve not come across any organised numbers for, say, 3-month morbidity

  283. CanSpeccy says: • Website
    @Chinaman

    It was supposed to be a 2 week event. Lockdown, test everyone and quarantine the sick. You eliminate it in a month, as China did, it is the best compromise and trade-off between economic damage and loss of life.

    So now, as Covid approaches endemic equilibrium throughout the West, Africa, India etc., we can look forward to an end to the flow of obnoxious Chinese tourists who, lacking immunity, will obviously not be allowed by their wonderfully intelligent government to travel among the diseased inhabitants of low IQ countries.

    • Replies: @Achmed E. Newman
  284. utu says:
    @Chinaman

    I could agree with this part of your comment:

    “…act like man-childs that never grew out of their teenage rebellion. These arguments about whether to wear a mask or to lockdown is like arguments between a kid and a parent trying to convince him to brush his teeth b4 bed…”

    You forget however about one problem. The problem of disinformation spread on social media which you do not have to deal with in China or even in Taiwan, where some people spreading false information and rumors about Covid-19 were prosecuted. We can’t do that in the West and thus we are vulnerable to the disinformation trolling campaigns. And obviously one may ask the question to what extent this campaign was steered by the enemies of the West like Russia or China.

    A lot of people in the West profess a belief that values liberty more than safety and common sense. For them expression of their own individuality is more important than the welfare of the greater community. So the disinformation campaign would exploit this unconditional love of liberty. Then there is a large segment among the “liberty unconditional lovers” who also are very paranoid about evil plotting by the governments to take their liberty away form them. This makes a perfect mixture in which to grow a deadly toxin of unreason and mistrust.

    • Replies: @CanSpeccy
  285. CanSpeccy says: • Website
    @utu

    This makes a perfect mixture in which to grow a deadly toxin of unreason and mistrust.

    So, essentially, you:

    accept Chinaman’s claim that China did everything right and stopped spread of the virus altogether, and indeed totally eradicated it from China;

    deride the opinion of the Rosalind Franklin prize winner and Oxford University Professor of mathematical epidemiology, Sunetra Gupta, who maintains that we have no option but to live with Covid in a condition of endemic equilibrium, as we do with the influenza and cold viruses; and

    dismiss those who disagree with your non-expert opinion on the grounds that they are childish egomaniacs, notwithstanding that Gupta’s estimates of the Covid infection fatality rate has proved almost exactly correct while you and Ron Unz ridiculed or censored those who rejected your cataclysmic view.

    • Replies: @Chinaman
    , @utu
  286. One question: Shouldn’t the mask cultists commit to wearing their masks more or less forever? If they are so great at stopping viruses, the alleged benefits of mask-wearing don’t end with just blocking Covid 19, but ordinary influenza and other diseases too. Even if it’s true that most are not as contagious as Covid 19, and in some cases vaccines exist and can be effective, if the pro-mask thinking is correct, hundreds of thousands of deaths could still be prevented with just this one simple measure. Yet apparently in China, they are already getting rid of their masks.

    https://www.ndtv.com/world-news/china-coronavirus-thousands-without-masks-party-at-wuhan-water-park-in-china-2280793

    It looks like they are not as concerned with transmitting infections to their fellow citizens as we have been led to believe. The forces of unreason, chaos, and anarchy are in ascendance everywhere it seems!

    • Replies: @CanSpeccy
  287. CanSpeccy says: • Website
    @Dr. Robert Morgan

    In Britain, influenza and pneumonia deaths are now several times those due to Covid, so if the UK’s strict rules on mask wearing make any sense now they must be chiefly to limit the spread of flu and pneumonia, not Covid.

    • Replies: @Dieter Kief
  288. Chinaman says:
    @CanSpeccy

    Did China do everything right?

    It is rare that you get to do everything right even with the benefit of hindsight, right? Let’s examine the the facts now.

    China is the only economy in the world that will experience economic growth this year Which means China will contribute more than 100% of growth to the world economy. You have no idea the amount of money and investments that is going into China. COVID will be remembered as the tipping point when China surpass the US. Yes, it is the CHINA virus.

    One of the major benefit of eliminating the virus ( instead of living with it) is not physical but psychological. White people talk about liberty but you are only be truly free when there is no fear and there is no COVID sword of Damocles above our head. Eliminating the virus eliminate fear.The rest of the world will have to go through hell with this herd immunity\mentality. The virus will come back to haunt the US and Europe for next years. The real impact is how it will affect investment decisions and hiring in the next few years. This is a global depression.

    China is celebrating its national day and tourism is booming. 1.4b people enjoying their holiday without Any FEAR Of catching COVID and they even get to take off their masks. Isn’t that REAL freedom, not the virtue signalling, mental masturbating type which white people love to indulge in? Liberty that you talk about but don’t actually have.

    This have been an epic awakening for all Chinaman, turn 1.4b into race realist overnight. How can white and black be such idiots and can’t follow simple instructions and common sense? The contrast in the handling of the virus expose the lies and rot in a democracy and gives the CCP and every Chinaman the confidence that we will prevail in the civilisation struggle against the west. Bring it on.

    5G is just the beginning. China will take the lead in AI, quantum computing, genetic engineering and robotics. China will elevate humanity and allow all of us to transcend it while white people can continue to argue the evils of lockdown, rant about liberty and the pleasures of herd immunity when they are in HELL.

  289. utu says:
    @CanSpeccy

    Sunetra Gupta was a co-author on three covid-19 papers in 2020: March 26, July 29, October 1

    https://www.medrxiv.org/content/10.1101/2020.03.24.20042291v1.full.pdf
    https://www.medrxiv.org/content/10.1101/2020.04.13.20060467v2.full.pdf
    https://www.medrxiv.org/content/10.1101/2020.07.15.20154294v2.full.pdf

    The March 26 paper does not make any predictions. It is posterior retroactive tweaking of SIR model to UK data up to 19/03/2020 and some data from Italy.

    Where do you get “Gupta’s estimates of the Covid infection fatality rate has proved almost exactly correct “? Was it published on Youtube?

    • Replies: @CanSpeccy
  290. @CanSpeccy

    The Chinese government is revoking many Chinamen’s passports as we speak, but not necessarily due to the Kung Flu, but, believe it or not, something about holding onto US dollars. (Why?!) Mr. Chinamen ought to be worrying about his Social Credit, his Health Score (don’t go into the yellow!), and the cashless Orwellian society being set up very quickly in China right now, rather than boasting about his intelligence on this blog.

    This Chinaman is an idiot. I was trying not to waste my time with him again. BTW, I appreciate your, Mr. Res’, Dearime’s, and Peripatetic Commenter’s discussion here.

    • Replies: @canspeccy
  291. @CanSpeccy

    At times I fear that the logical consequences of the unreasonable CO-19 measures could be what’s up next. Sigh.

    • Replies: @canspeccy
  292. xcd says:
    @PetrOldSack

    The governments could also stop poisoning and irradiating us through their cronies.

  293. xcd says:
    @Peripatetic Commenter

    There has only been evasion of what the symptons are supposed to be. The clusters of symptoms seem to differ by country. One UK university came up with 6 different clusters, of which it considered only 2 to be serious.

    • Replies: @Peripatetic Commenter
  294. @xcd

    There has only been evasion of what the symptons are supposed to be.

    I don’t understand what you mean. Can you explain more.

    In any case, they are taking a positive PCR result to signify a case while the traditional definition involves symptoms. They don’t seem to be interested in whether or not the person has symptoms. How many asymptomatic people are taking the tests? Who knows?

    • Replies: @xcd
  295. CanSpeccy says: • Website
    @Chinaman

    One of the major benefit of eliminating the virus ( instead of living with it) is not physical but psychological.

    There’s the lie right there Chinaman. China allows up to five hundred thousand international travellers, Chinamans and Barbarians, to enter the country every day, and you claim Chinese Covid virginity.

    LOL

    All China can claim is efficiency in flattening the curve, although how efficiently it has done that, who knows? Certainly not those who accept what liars like you have to say.

    In fact, the CPC simply decided to bite the Covid bullet, send people back to work and accept the tiny additional mortality that would necessarily result.

    One of the major benefit of eliminating the virus ( instead of living with it) is not physical but psychological. White people talk about liberty but you are only be truly free when there is no fear and there is no COVID sword of Damocles above our head.

    Well if you wanted to prove that your an idiot, you’ve done it. China has:

    1. A land border of 22,000 km with countries infested with Covid,
    2. Millions of its citizens working abroad in countries infested with Covid, and
    3. Hundreds of thousands if not millions of its student population enrolled at foreign universities in countries infested with Covid.

    And the Chinese live without fear of Covid, you say. Well in that respect, then, they are like most other people. The fact is, Covid kills almost no one and for most of those infected it is less debilitating than the seasonal flu — you know, causing no symptoms, a disease of which many who are infected are unaware, in fact, for many, hardly worthy of the name disease.

    Here are some numbers on survival of the Covid “Sword of Damoclese” from the US Center for Disease Control:

    Age 0-19 — 99.997%
    Age 20-49 — 99.98%
    Age 50-69 — 99.5%
    Age 70+ — 94.6%

    You think such numbers terrify Americans? Go tell that to the university students recently reassembled around the country and holding parties for as many as a thousand at a time.

    And are you even Chinese? You sound more like a puppet creation of a rather dumb propaganda operation. The many Chinese people I’ve known have been not only much more intelligent but vastly more likable.

    • Replies: @Chinaman
  296. @Chinaman

    5G is just the beginning. China will take the lead in AI, quantum computing, genetic engineering and robotics. China will elevate humanity and allow all of us to transcend it while white people can continue to argue the evils of lockdown, rant about liberty and the pleasures of herd immunity when they are in HELL.

    Did you get a photo of yourself when you posted that?

    I would like to ensure you were not frothing at the mouth.

  297. CanSpeccy says: • Website
    @utu

    Where do you get “Gupta’s estimates of the Covid infection fatality rate

    An UnHerd interview. You can look it up.

    • Replies: @res
  298. xcd says:
    @Achmed E. Newman

    If the infection rate and severity is anywhere close to govt. claims, all those low-paid front-line people working long hours in markets, shops, restaurants, etc. should be dropping like flies, and the scientists should have been crowing from the rooftops. Most of these people, and their customers, wear their masks superficially, if at all; they would fall ill if they wore the masks “properly”. They can rarely maintain the magical distances.

    • Agree: Achmed E. Newman
  299. canspeccy says: • Website
    @Achmed E. Newman

    something about holding onto US dollars.

    Ha! Is that why the dollar continues to show strength? One billion Chinamans getting round the CPCs stranglehold on his economic life by trading dollars for cigarettes and pork chops will give the dollar tremendous lift.

  300. Chinaman says:
    @CanSpeccy

    There’s the lie right there Chinaman.

    I made a statement that eliminating the virus be beneficial all of us psychology. That’s my opinion and I think 99% of humanity would agree they would he happier without the virus. Are you saying I lied that China eliminated the virus? Ha…you are right that virus will never be eliminated if there are white people in the world.

    COVID was eliminated in Wuhan. That’s a fact.

    They tested all 10 million people in the city and not single case…To celebrate it, they had a pool party, no masks and all. I assume you saw the viral video.

    The many Chinese people I’ve known have been not only much more intelligent but vastly more likable.

    I don’t like white people. My intention was to piss you guys off so I am glad you find me obnoxious and unlikable. You can go find a “uncle wong” to keep it funny for you. Truth hurts, right?

  301. canspeccy says: • Website
    @Dieter Kief

    re: “the logical consequences of the unreasonable CO-19 measures”

    Yes, that’s the important question. What’s coming down the pike? Inflation, higher taxes, or pretty certainly both. Compulsory vaccination with tattoos or implanted chips as verification? Elimination of cash? Social credit control over use of electronic means of payment? Mandatory face coverings in all public places? All driven by counterfeit Covid consternation.

  302. res says:
    @CanSpeccy

    https://unherd.com/2020/05/oxford-doubles-down-sunetra-gupta-interview/

    Asked what her updated estimate for the Infection Fatality Rate is, Professor Gupta says, “I think that the epidemic has largely come and is on its way out in this country so I think it would be definitely less than 1 in 1000 and probably closer to 1 in 10,000.” That would be somewhere between 0.1% and 0.01%.

    • Thanks: CanSpeccy
    • Replies: @CanSpeccy
    , @utu
  303. CanSpeccy says: • Website
    @res

    The estimate of one in a ten thousand seems too low, since that would imply, based on reported deaths, a national population several times the actual size, assuming everyone was infected. Even one in a thousand seems high, as it would imply 62% population exposure to the virus. But its conceivable, and consistent with reported prevalence of Covid antibodies assuming that 60% have T-cell immunity to infection and hence produce no antibodies.

    But then the Fatality Rate may be exaggerated, as it evidently has been in other jurisdictions with road accident victims, for example, being put down as Covid victims, and anyone dying with Covid being classified as killed by Covid despite other serious heart or respiratory diseases.

    What lends credence to Prof. Gupta’s view is the pattern of deaths, numbers declining ever since April 20th, indicating that the number of newly infected individuals declined from that date, most likely because the number available to be newly infected was declining sharply.

    Lockdowns presumably had some impact on that number, but despite crowded beaches during the late days of summer, and partying undergraduates with the beginning of the new school year, the mortality rate is only 5% of the rate at the spring peak. The implication is that the virus really has reached most people, most of whom are now immune if they were not already.

  304. CanSpeccy: “In Britain, influenza and pneumonia deaths are now several times those due to Covid, so if the UK’s strict rules on mask wearing make any sense now they must be chiefly to limit the spread of flu and pneumonia, not Covid.”

    Here in America, it’s not being sold to the public on this basis, but rather as a temporary measure until a vaccine for Covid-19 is available. This makes a mockery of the argument that it’s done to save lives, as it ignores all the other potential benefits of mask-wearing. Of course, if someone had proposed a year ago that suddenly everyone should be forced to wear a mask to reduce the incidence of colds and flu, they would have been ridiculed. Anyone voluntarily doing it would have been thought mentally ill, a germophobic freak. The fact is, most people are willing to run certain risks just as a part of being alive, and that’s quite reasonable. I accept there’s a chance I will be struck by lightning, or hit by a meteorite, eaten by a shark, or even die from a virus.

    The current mask hysteria bears an uncanny resemblance to another famous outbreak of hysteria, the dancing manias of the Middle Ages. One can see right away that this behavior is typically not based on a rational calculation by the individuals participating. I see people all the time alone in their cars wearing a mask. I also see them worn sloppily, under the nose. Then there are also the face shields and people wearing bandanas, like they are going in to rob a bank in a western movie. Ridiculous!

    It’s just behavior engaged in because everyone else is doing it. Once it ends, probably there will be no explanation given for why mask-wearing shouldn’t have been continued indefinitely to reduce influenza and other diseases, just as the dancing manias eventually ended with no explanation given. No explanation will be given because reducing deaths wasn’t ever the point. It’s all just for show. It’s a fashion statement, a social phenomenon tailor-made for our totalitarian age.

    • Agree: MrVoid
  305. utu says:
    @res

    Sunetra Gupta was wrong in March. She claims that 50% of population had already a contact with the virus. Her March paper was widely criticized. See the letter to FT:

    and Adam Kucharski:

    She refused to correct in May during her interview when she said “I think that the epidemic has largely come and is on its way out…”. Just look at UK daily cases. 1.8 times more in cases were added since she spoke. (160k total May 1 –> 460k total Oct. 2).

    She was criticized and ignored and gained traction only among the anti-countermeasures nutjobs like CanSpeccy.

    • Replies: @CanSpeccy
    , @Philip Owen
  306. CanSpeccy says: • Website
    @utu

    She was criticized and ignored and gained traction only among the anti-countermeasures nutjobs like CanSpeccy.

    Well naturally, we will take the judgement of authors of letters to the newspaper over Oxford University Professors writing in scholarly journals. And we will show even more deference to an abusive commenter at Unz.com.

    But the fact remains that since May, when Professor Gupta said that the epidemic “is on its way out” the rate of Covid deaths in Britain has diminished continuously and is now only 5% of the April 20 peak.

    So who’s the nutjob here? Professor Gupta, whose view Utu derides though not without first ascribing it to me, or Utu the Unz Review Covid panic propagandist, whose argument amounts to nothing more than personal abuse.

    As for claimed case numbers, these are a function of testing frequency and and testing validity, which is probably negligible.

    • Replies: @utu
  307. @GeneralRipper

    Exactly why the Brits have the decades-old slogan “Unplug The Electric Jew”:

    If there is one single thing that would help this country BEGIN the climb out of our current situation, it would be for people to get rid of the goddamn Jew Media/Hollyweird sewer pipe into their homes/living rooms.

    The Jews’ media is the only deadly contagion involved in the Jew Flu with its Goy Gag mandate as expounded upon here:

    https://www.unz.com/isteve/trumps-got-the-virus/#comment-4201159

  308. utu says:
    @CanSpeccy

    Why don’t you read her paper and do some thinking. Just look at the conclusions concerning the UK (page 3):

    https://www.medrxiv.org/content/10.1101/2020.03.24.20042291v1.full.pdf
    In both R​0 scenarios, by the time the first death was reported (05/03/2020), thousands of individuals (~0.08%) would have already been infected with the virus (as also suggested by ​[5]​). By 19/03/2020, approximately 36% (R​0​=2.25) and 40% (R​0​=2.75) of the population would have already been exposed to SARS-CoV-2. Running the same model with R​0​=2.25 and the proportion of the population at risk of severe disease being distributed around 0.1%, places the start of transmission at 4 days prior to first case detection and 38 days before the first confirmed death and suggests that 68% would have been infected by 19/03/2020.

    Depending on the assumed R​0​ she claims that data from UK imply that 26%, or 40% or 68% of UK population have been infected by 19/03/2020. First question is why does she has to assume R0? The data should give her an estimate of R0. One can get R0 form the daily death curve and the estimate of the infection-to-death time. She used cumulative deaths data from the early stage “Before the implementation of control measures”.

    Now, think about the number of 40% infected by 19/03/2020 time? Her model used cumulative deaths data. Her last cumulative death data point is slightly above 2 on log10 scale which is about 150 deaths (see Figure 1). Now look at the cumulative deaths data at http://www.worldometers.info/coronavirus/country/uk/

    Mar 19: 154
    Apr 1: 3,000
    Apr 15: 14,000
    Apr 30: 27,000

    From the progression of cumulative deaths up to the total of 154 this woman concludes that 40% people in the UK have been infected by 19/03/2020. (BTW, her conclusion hinges on one critical assumption which she took out of the air.). Try to reconcile it with the fact that about one month later the total was 14,000. Assume the infection-to death time is 4 weeks (actually it is about 3 weeks) the 40% causes 14,000 death. To get 28,000 deaths you need to infect the other 40%. Who you need to infect to come to 40,000? Don’t you see that this woman must be crazy/incompetent/mendacious?Pick one.

    The moment the paper got posted (not published and not reviewed) she immediately got her audience in the Financial Times.

    Coronavirus may have infected half of UK population — Oxford study. (March 24)
    https://www.ft.com/content/5ff6469a-6dd8-11ea-89df-41bea055720b

    Her appeal was to the Chamber of Commerce crowd that always has very faithful and vocal support among libertarians and other nutjobs who unlike the C of C crowd take the propaganda for reality and swallow the whole thing and seven months later still can’t regurgitate and spit it out.

    Even the FT three days later later had a second thought:

    Why it’s too tempting to believe the Oxford study on coronavirus (March 27)
    https://www.ft.com/content/14df8908-6f47-11ea-9bca-bf503995cd6f

    Then six professors of epidemiology got their letter published: “The Oxford study figure has no empirical justification” on March 30. Her name was not mentioned, her methodology was not analyzed. It was pointed out that empirical data from various places in Italy (her paper had Italy data as well) do not support her conclusion. So basically they handled her in white gloves. Nobody said that she is a stupid incompetent bitch or mendacious whore for big business. My guess is she is more of a whore than stupid. The question is why to risk your reputation when what you do can be so easily shown to be fraudulent?

    “…nothing more than personal abuse…” – Not true, I alway give you arguments with data and links but as far as the abuse you deserve it. You are beyond redemption. No attempt on your part to mend your ways was observed. You are not that stupid to be unable to mend your ways. So it is in your character, bad faith and ill will.

    For this reason six professors of epidemiology wrote the letter:

    Letter: The Oxford study figure has no empirical justification. (March 30)
    https://www.ft.com/content/ebab9fcc-6e8d-11ea-9bca-bf503995cd6f

    This is reason did she get any exposure in media? Because of the anti-countermeasure nutjobs who loved to hear what she was saying. Her result was right away reported in RT and for this reason a letter of

    • Replies: @CanSpeccy
    , @utu
  309. CanSpeccy says: • Website

    “of” is a odd word with which to end a technical review.

    As for

    For this reason six professors of epidemiology wrote the [undated] letter

    This letter is behind the paywall of the Japanese-owned financial rag, the FT.

    Why don’t you spend a buck and retrieve the full text for us. It would be interesting to see how this critique of six months ago stands up in the light of what has actually happened.

    The article by the “nutjob” as you refer to Profess Gupta, that was critiqued in that letter to the FT is available here, and, looking at the abstract, I find that it makes good sense.

    Maybe it is open to fatal criticism, but the rigmarole you offer won’t persuade many people.

    Here, for instance, is the main conclusion of Gupta et al.’s modeling study:

    Our simulations are in agreement with other studies that the current epidemic wave in the UK and Italy in the absence of interventions should have an approximate duration of 2-3 months, with numbers of deaths lagging behind in time relative to overall infections. Importantly, the results we present here suggest the ongoing epidemics in the UK and Italy started at least a month before the first reported death and have already led to the accumulation of significant levels of herd immunity in both countries. There is an inverse relationship between the proportion currently immune and the fraction of the population vulnerable to severe disease.

    This relationship can be used to determine how many people will require hospitalisation (and possibly die) in the coming weeks if we are able to accurately determine current levels of herd immunity. There is thus an urgent need for investment in technologies …

    Sounds right to me, and that was written before the events concerned. The authors even have data as a plural noun. Very good.

    But, hey, since your so smart, why don’t you apply for a professorial appointment at Oxford University, the Worlds No. 1 ranked university, according to the Times Higher Ed. Maybe they’d kick out this “nutjob” as you call Professor Gupta, and appoint you in her place.

    As for

    I alway give you arguments with data and links

    That’s BS. In your previous comment you gave me a link to some incoherent tweet and called me a “nutjob.” I guess it’s something to be ranked on the same mental level as a celebrated Oxford University professor, still your language is inflammatory, uninformative and insolent.

  310. Syd Walker says: • Website
    @Jus' Sayin'...

    “I’m a Ph.D. with over a quarter of a century of off-again-on-again experience conducting epidemiological analyses in various fields. My epi modeling of the spread of AIDS back in 1990 generated estimates that proved an order of magnitude better, i.e. lower, than Dr. Fauci’s early and politically motivated projections. I ended the last fifteen years of my professional life working with the title of Epidemiologist in my state’s Department of Public Health.”

    So why not post comments under your real name?

    #JustSaying

  311. xcd says:
    @Peripatetic Commenter

    Apart from the mythical virus, the disease as defined by symptoms is also mythical – in differing widely between places, and in expanding.

  312. xcd says:
    @Philip Owen

    Meaningful quarantine: Remember, they had a central air-con. system on the ship.

  313. xcd says:
    @Chrisnonymous

    ..IFR must decline over time

    Alternatively, it could stay steady or rise, as the mythical virus becomes benign and pervasive. This assumes that the mythical test is detecting something consistently.

  314. xcd says:
    @Chrisnonymous

    The inventor of PCR (Mullis) specifically stated that the test cannot measure viral load.

    TV clips I saw of Japan showed many people without masks. Contrary to propaganda, as in other “developed” countries, many are poor, live in crowded rooms, etc.

    We know that N95 causes a drop in oxygenation after a while. How long can anyone work at physical tasks – such as medical care – while wearing one properly? What does that imply for the data on it?

    Belarus had far better results than Sweden – contrary to the non-stop propaganda from a certain national broadcaster. Hence the moves to impose Regime Change there.

  315. CanSpeccy says: • Website
    @utu

    I have taken a look at the MedArchive paper by among others Sunetra Gupta, who you call a “nutjob” and note the following:

    First, the article is not a peer reviewed journal article.

    Second, the paper states the epidemiological principles that describe the progress of a novel infectious agent through a susceptible population, beginning with an exponential or epidemic phase of spread, followed by a decline in new infections as the number of susceptible hosts becomes exhausted, and then a stable, or endemic, phase when the rate of new infections reflects the rate at which susceptible hosts emerge through births, migration or renewed susceptibility among those previously infected.

    Third, based on the then available data, the authors predict that the epidemic phase of the disease in Italy and UK “should have an approximate duration of 2-3 months”.

    The paper was posted at MedArchive on March 20, 2020. Therefore, the prediction that the disease in the UK would transition from epidemic to endemic within 2-3 months can be evaluated by the published data.

    What the data show is that Covid deaths in the UK peaked on April 20 at 1,172 and fell by 96% to 43 by June 20, i.e., three months later. Thereafter, the rate of Covid deaths in the UK has been stable with a count of 24 recorded on September 24.

    So in its most important assertion, the paper was correct.

    As for the modeling that you critique, that seems to be no more than a bit of academic paraphernalia of the kind typically included in scholarly writing and of no real interest or significance.

    The now observed transition of Covid in the UK from an epidemic disease to a disease apparently in endemic equilibrium (though likely subject to season fluctuation), implies widespread immunity. Hence the advocacy by Gupta et al. of antibody testing to confirm the existence of herd immunity as inplied by the decline in Covid deaths, which are now running well below the number of influenza and pneumonia deaths in the UK.

    So I’m sorry to say this Utu, but it’s pretty clear that you’re the “nutjob” here.

    • Agree: Philip Owen
  316. @canspeccy

    Few children and teenagers are attacked by SARS2 because they have fewer ACE2 receptors than adults. 14 year old girls are approximately invulnerable. Obesity moderates this effect.

  317. @utu

    The shape of the UK Farr curve says she was right. Here is the one for Wales. I assumed the wrong GDP loss. It was double. 21.7% rather than 10%.

  318. utu says:
    @utu

    I did not preserve the copy of the letter to the FT and now I do not have access to the FT right now. But I found something much better which sheds light on Gupta and people behind her.

    Oxford Model Touting ‘Herd Immunity’ was Promoted by PR Agency Tied to Ministry of Defence and Nudge Unit
    https://bylinetimes.com/2020/03/26/the-coronavirus-crisis-oxford-model-touting-herd-immunity-was-promoted-by-pr-agency-tied-to-ministry-of-defence-and-nudge-unit/

    The draft paper, which was originally posted to Dropbox, included a disclaimer noting that its content was “not final” and could be “updated any time”. The disclaimer also contained a contact point for journalists: “Contact for press enquiries: Cairbre Sugrue, [email protected].”

    Dr Lewis Mackenzie, a Biotechnology and Biological Sciences Research Council Discovery Fellow, commented: “Why on earth has this been sent to the media via a third party PR company instead of the Oxford University press team? Seems very irresponsible to encourage reporting on this topic before the scientific community had a chance to comment and peer-review it.”

    Caibre Sugrue is the founding director of Sugrue Communications, a technology PR agency.

    ‘Nudge unit’ chief Dr David Halpern first spoke about “herd immunity” as a potential outcome of the UK Government’s Coronavirus strategy on 11 March in an interview with the BBC. A document published by the Government’s Scientific Advisory Group on Emergencies (SAGE) confirms that, a week earlier, some behavioural scientists had advised the Government to explain “that members of the community are building some immunity” as way of making the lack of “wider social isolation” policies “acceptable” to the public.

    The herd immunity anti-countermeasure strategy is being pushed at the SAGE meeting on March 11 – 7 days. They think of how to come up with justification of “Government’s inaction to the British public”.

    Behavioural Scientists told Government to use ‘Herd Immunity’ to Justify Business-As-Usual https://bylinetimes.com/2020/03/23/covid-19-special-investigation-part-three-behavioural-scientists-told-government-to-use-herd-immunity-to-justify-business-as-usual/

    The next we know what happened. They looked for a scientist with the highest professional integrity. It so happens that Gupta was on the top of the list. They ask to write a paper with the following parameters… She hacks a paper that is published on March 20 which is 16 days after the SAGE meeting. And low and behold the woman who always was motivated by nothing but by the pursuit of the truth calculates that 40% were already infected by March 19 which just happens is what SAGE badly needed (“that members of the community are building some immunity” as way of making the lack of “wider social isolation” policies “acceptable” to the public) to cover the Government’s ass for its inaction. The PR firm with ties to MoD and SAGE gets the editor of the FT on the phone who enthusiastically writes on March 24 The Good News Gospel according to Gupta or is it SAGE:

    Coronavirus may have infected half of UK population — Oxford study. (March 24)
    https://www.ft.com/content/5ff6469a-6dd8-11ea-89df-41bea055720b

    though due to pressures of some malevolent forces who care about good science and perhaps want to save lives of some humans:

    expert reaction to unpublished paper modelling what percentage of the UK population may have been exposed to COVID-19
    https://www.sciencemediacentre.org/expert-reaction-to-unpublished-paper-modelling-what-percentage-of-the-uk-population-may-have-been-exposed-to-covid-19/

    the FT editor gets less enthused:

    Why it’s too tempting to believe the Oxford study on coronavirus (March 27)
    https://www.ft.com/content/14df8908-6f47-11ea-9bca-bf503995cd6f

    which is followed by a critical letter from six epidemiology professors several days later.

    Letter: The Oxford study figure has no empirical justification. (March 30)
    https://www.ft.com/content/ebab9fcc-6e8d-11ea-9bca-bf503995cd6f

    Poor Gupta women overeager to please her masters overdid what she was asked to do.

    I will write one more comment on Gupta and what she overdid to give you one more chance to see what you obstinately refuse to see.

    • Replies: @CanSpeccy
    , @Philip Owen
  319. CanSpeccy says: • Website
    @utu

    I will write one more comment on Gupta and what she overdid

    Glad you realize that what you just said cuts no ice.

    Motives are irrelevant.

    What matters is whether the key conclusion of the Lourenco, et al. paper “Fundamental principles of epidemic spread …” was correct.

    It was.

    What was that conclusion published on March 26, 2020?

    It was that Covid19 in the UK would transition from epidemic to endemic within 2-3 months, a claim that can be evaluated by the published data.

    What the data show is that Covid deaths in the UK peaked on April 20 at 1,172 and fell by 96% to just 43 on June 20, i.e., three months later. Since June, the rate of Covid deaths in the UK has remained low and stable with a count of 24 recorded on September 24.

    So, in its most important assertion, the paper was exactly correct: the epidemic wave of Covid19 that killed thousands in Britain earlier in the year is now over. Covid19 cases are still occurring in Britain, although with what frequency is unclear, but Covid-related deaths in the UK are apparently now fewer fewer than those caused by the seasonal flu.

    That the accurate prediction of Lourenco, et al. signifies the achievement of herd immunity is hard to refute. But for some reason there is now an urgent need to pump up the fear and shut the economy down again. Hence new phony numbers on “cases” (see the red portion of the histogram at the head of this blog post).

    • Thanks: Mark G.
    • Replies: @utu
  320. geokat62 says:

    Dissenting scientists issue Covid-19 herd immunity declaration:

    Description:

    Freddie Sayers talks to eminent epidemiologists Dr Sunetra Gupta, Dr Jay Bhattacharya and Dr. Martin Kulldorff, who met in Massachusetts to sign a declaration calling for a different global response to the pandemic.

    For those who are fed up with this nonsense, please visit this website and sign this important declaration…

    https://gbdeclaration.org/

    Here’s the full transcript of The Great Barrington Declaration:

    [MORE]

    As infectious disease epidemiologists and public health scientists we have grave concerns about the damaging physical and mental health impacts of the prevailing COVID-19 policies, and recommend an approach we call Focused Protection.

    Coming from both the left and right, and around the world, we have devoted our careers to protecting people. Current lockdown policies are producing devastating effects on short and long-term public health. The results (to name a few) include lower childhood vaccination rates, worsening cardiovascular disease outcomes, fewer cancer screenings and deteriorating mental health – leading to greater excess mortality in years to come, with the working class and younger members of society carrying the heaviest burden. Keeping students out of school is a grave injustice.

    Keeping these measures in place until a vaccine is available will cause irreparable damage, with the underprivileged disproportionately harmed.

    Fortunately, our understanding of the virus is growing. We know that vulnerability to death from COVID-19 is more than a thousand-fold higher in the old and infirm than the young. Indeed, for children, COVID-19 is less dangerous than many other harms, including influenza.

    As immunity builds in the population, the risk of infection to all – including the vulnerable – falls. We know that all populations will eventually reach herd immunity – i.e. the point at which the rate of new infections is stable – and that this can be assisted by (but is not dependent upon) a vaccine. Our goal should therefore be to minimize mortality and social harm until we reach herd immunity.

    The most compassionate approach that balances the risks and benefits of reaching herd immunity, is to allow those who are at minimal risk of death to live their lives normally to build up immunity to the virus through natural infection, while better protecting those who are at highest risk. We call this Focused Protection.

    Adopting measures to protect the vulnerable should be the central aim of public health responses to COVID-19. By way of example, nursing homes should use staff with acquired immunity and perform frequent PCR testing of other staff and all visitors. Staff rotation should be minimized. Retired people living at home should have groceries and other essentials delivered to their home. When possible, they should meet family members outside rather than inside. A comprehensive and detailed list of measures, including approaches to multi-generational households, can be implemented, and is well within the scope and capability of public health professionals.

    Those who are not vulnerable should immediately be allowed to resume life as normal. Simple hygiene measures, such as hand washing and staying home when sick should be practiced by everyone to reduce the herd immunity threshold. Schools and universities should be open for in-person teaching. Extracurricular activities, such as sports, should be resumed. Young low-risk adults should work normally, rather than from home. Restaurants and other businesses should open. Arts, music, sport and other cultural activities should resume. People who are more at risk may participate if they wish, while society as a whole enjoys the protection conferred upon the vulnerable by those who have built up herd immunity.

    On October 4, 2020, this declaration was authored and signed in Great Barrington, United States, by:

    Dr. Martin Kulldorff, professor of medicine at Harvard University, a biostatistician, and epidemiologist with expertise in detecting and monitoring of infectious disease outbreaks and vaccine safety evaluations.

    Dr. Sunetra Gupta, professor at Oxford University, an epidemiologist with expertise in immunology, vaccine development, and mathematical modeling of infectious diseases.

    Dr. Jay Bhattacharya, professor at Stanford University Medical School, a physician, epidemiologist, health economist, and public health policy expert focusing on infectious diseases and vulnerable populations.

    • Replies: @CanSpeccy
    , @utu
  321. @utu

    Nd yet, her predictions were:

    1) in line with conventional epidemiology
    2) right.

    What we see Ferguson’s supporters are modellers supporting each other like climatologists.

    • Replies: @utu
  322. And now, it seem, WHO estimates that 750M people worldwide have gotten SARS-CoV-2:

    That IFR is low …

    • Replies: @CanSpeccy
    , @utu
  323. CanSpeccy says: • Website
    @geokat62

    Yes, thanks for posting this video.

    What these people are urging is that the Covid19 virus be allowed to spread freely among those who are least are risk of serious illness or death, thereby achieving herd immunity.

    Herd immunity acquired naturally through the spread of a novel infectious agent depends on the acqusition of immunity by survivors of the infection, which then limits viral spread, since the proportion of the population to which the virus can be spread is reduced. This effect is measured by changes in the so-called Reproduction number or R0, which is the number of persons to whom each infected person passes the virus. As the virus spreads and the proportion of the population with immunity rises, R0 falls and, with it, the number of new infections. Ultimately, R0 reachs a value of one at which point the number of new infections stabilizes at a low level relative to the number at the height of the epidemic. At this stage the virus is said to be in a state of endemic equilibrium, meaning it won’t go away but the number of new infections will not flare up as during the epidemic, but remain at a more or less constant low level. In due course, it is hoped that an effective anti-Covid19 vaccine will be available. Then R0 can be driven well below 1.0 and the disease will become quite rare.

    One question this strategy raises is how close is the world or any particular country to achieving herd immunity. According to the Johns Hopkins University Corona Virus Resource Center, the total number of Covid19 cases worldwide is 35 million. or about zero point four percent of the world’s population. That implies we are very far from worldwide herd immunity, which would require perhaps four and a half billion infections, or 60% of the world’s population. Or so it is believed. However, some research suggests that due to differences among individuals and groups in their social interactions, herd immunity requires infection of only 40% of the population of concern, or three billion infections worldwide, but that is still vastly greater than the number of infections reported by the Johns Hopkins University Corona Virus Resource Center.

    But the number of infections worldwide may be much greater than the data from Johns Hopkins suggest. According to an announcement today from the World Health Organization, global infections now total 750 million, or more than 20 times the Johns Hopkins University estimate. That number, combined with the lower estimate of the numbers for herd immunity, implies that worldwide, the population could already be one quarter of the way to herd immunity. If that is correct, and if as proposed by the scientists calling for an end to lockdowns we protect the vulnerable part of the population, which is to say those over 60 years of age, then we could be shot of Covid19 as a major cause of mortality quite soon.

  324. CanSpeccy says: • Website
    @Peripatetic Commenter

    The IFR is low …

    And when you see that whereas the Johns Hopkins Corona Virus Resource Center is reporting 35 million infections worldwide versus the WHO’s 750 million one realizes that pretty certainly no one has any remotely reliable idea of how far the virus has spread. Most likely, in the great urban centers, New York, Tokyo, Wuhan, London, etc., the proportion of known and undetected infections may well be high enough that herd immunity is imminent if not already achieved. It is that fact that makes the UK Government’s plan for new tougher lockdown rules seem so bizarre, unless, that is, pushing even more mortgage holders and business owners into bankruptcy is the name of the game.

    It is surely time now for the Tory back bench to revolt, and give BoJo, that feeble emulation of Winston Churchill, the boot he so richly deserves.

  325. utu says:
    @Philip Owen

    Read her paper and think. She implicitly assumed that IFR was about 0.05% or lower to obtain 40% or higher infection rate in the UK by March 19. The high infection rate was her chief claim while the value of IFR was hidden in the paper on purpose so it did not stand out. At this IFR value the 40,000 fatalities translates in the UK to 80,000,000 infections in a 66,000,000 country. She was wrong by at least one order of magnitude. And this you call right? Are you immune to reality checks?

    Her modeling was indeed very conventional. A very simply SIR model for well mixed population not taking into account clusters with different R0 values and population stratification with respect to age, social contacts and mobility. Her modeling was in fact irrelevant, an intentional distraction. If you want to get high infection rate from cumulative deaths data all you need to do is to figure out how high you want to go by picking IFR number which you can’t pick too low because data in two or three weeks can prove you very wrong. This is exactly what happened to her. Three weeks later on April 9 the cumulative deaths total was 9,606. Combing it with 40% infections by March 19 gives you IFR =0.036% which eventually leads to number of infections higher than the whole population of UK.

    She was a hired gun. Her task was to produce the number of high infection rate number by hook or by crook. She overdid it and picked 40% or higher of already infected. The result wa publicized by a PR firm via the FT and repeated in other media to affect policy as well as to provide an alibi for the Government’s inaction. It did not work. The lockdown was imposed few days after her paper got posted. Her paper remains unrefereed and unpublished.

    • Replies: @Philip Owen
    , @CanSpeccy
    , @Anon
  326. utu says:
    @Peripatetic Commenter

    Italy has 23% people over 65 while Nigeria has only 2.8% or India 6%. IFR of 1%-0.5% for Europe translates to 3 to 8 times lower number for the 3rd world countries.

  327. utu says:
    @CanSpeccy

    Don’t want to repeat what I wrote for Philip Owen.

    https://www.unz.com/jthompson/once-more-unto-the-breach-dear-friends-covid-19-part-ii/#comment-4205385

    Motives are irrelevant. – Yes, we can ignore motives when somebody does a good work. This is not the case with the Gupta woman. Her work sucks. It is dishonest and egregiously wrong. This applies to you as well. Linking to the rant by some Misesian who was an assistant of Ron “The Kook” Paul is a sure giveaway that you have no intent or aspiration to find out the truth.

  328. @utu

    Ahhh, now I understand.

    Ad Hominems are your thing.

    Good to know.

  329. CanSpeccy says: • Website
    @utu

    Right on’ Utu,

    When neither facts nor relevant arguments are to hand, put the boot in. But tell us, do you do this kind of defamation work just for fun or are a shill under a contract of employment.

  330. @utu

    And yet, the shape of the Farr Curve is consistent with a 67% level of herd immunity given the original Ro=3 assumption. This is for Wales which I track (20% over 56) but the UK is similar.

    My 10% assumption about GDP decline was wrong. It was 21.7%

    • Replies: @utu
    , @res
  331. CanSpeccy says: • Website
    @utu

    She was a hired gun. Her task was to produce the number of high infection rate number by hook or by crook.

    Instead of making what appear to be libelous comments here, both about Professor Gupta and harmless drones such as myself, why not make your voice heard where it would count for something?

    Why not attack the herd immunity story for the pack of lies you claim it to be on a site for medical scholars? For example, why not expose Professor Gupta for the swindling liar you say she is over at the British Medical Journal in the comment section following the paper by BMJ Associate Editor, Doshi, entitled: Covid-19: Do many people have pre-existing immunity? The article quotes Dr. Gupta’s ideas about Covid herd immunity at length and in a most respectful way.

    So go, Utu, demolish this Oxfraud as brilliantly as you insult innocents here who question the Unz-Utu line on Covid19? Unless, that is, as here, you would have nothing relevant to say.

  332. Anon[109] • Disclaimer says:
    @utu

    @ She was a hired gun. Her task was to produce..

    Have you seen the documentary Inside Job? The last part chronicles how very easy it is to pay a (high ranking) academic to write papers to promote particular policies. I feel naive not to have known, they often disclose of how much they were paid. The info is publicly available.

    • Replies: @utu
    , @CanSpeccy
  333. utu says:
    @Anon

    No, I am pretty sure no money was involved. She was “a good girl” and “a team player” and for the effort and particularly for blemishing her reputation in the eyes of her colleagues she will be rewarded in the future as trustworthy and dependable person on which the establishment and the insiders always can count because she has no integrity. You can’t serve two masters so the integrity and truth must go out the window.

  334. utu says:
    @Philip Owen

    The number of Covid-19 registered deaths in Wales is slightly over 2,500.

    “Farr Curve is consistent with a 67%” level of herd immunity – You do not know what you are talking about. You can’t read HIT from the daily deaths curve w/o knowing IFR. Furthermore if IFR is dropping in time due to (1) improved medical treatment, (2) increased fraction of low viral load transmissions and (3) the most vulnerable population got better in dodging the virus then this curve has no relation in shape to the daily infections curve.

    Sunetra Gupta in her March 2020 paper did not predict correctly anything relevant (*) and her conclusions of over 40% infections by March 19 was grossly and fraudulently wrong.

    Her statement that the duration of the epidemic will be 2-3 months “in the absence of interventions” was nebulous (±20% margin error) and unverifiable as many interventions affecting R0 were implemented as we know.

  335. CanSpeccy says: • Website
    @Anon

    Have you seen the documentary Inside Job? The last part chronicles how very easy it is to pay a (high ranking) academic to write papers to promote particular policies. I feel naive not to have known

    There you are then. There’s proof positive. It’s in a movie. Professor Gupta is a liar because, er, well, because academics have been known to write for money. How pathetic are the Unz shills?

    So pathetic they’re hardly worth rebutting. But just once more let’s go over the facts that the liar Utu has repeatedly tried to obscure.

    Gupta with others put an un-refereed manuscript* on the MedArchive web site on March 26, stating the fundamental principles of epidemic spread, which taken together with some modeling, suggested that the Covid epidemic in Britain would be over within two to three months.

    Whatever the quality of the modeling, events proved that prediction to be correct. Mortality data show that Covid deaths in the UK peaked on April 20 at 1,172 and fell by 96% to just 43 by June 20, i.e., within three months as Gupta et al predicted. Thereafter, the rate of Covid deaths in the UK has remained low and stable with a count of 24 recorded on September 24.

    The Gupta et al. prediction implied one of two things. Either the virus had decided to take up reproducti0n control, or it has run out of susceptible humans to infect due to the rise in the proportion of individuals with post-infection immunity. The prediction thus necessarily implied the achievement of herd immunity, a concept obviously to be anathematized by agents of the hugely profitable vaccine business.

    But how to confirm the arrival of herd immunity for those with no common sense. Simple — in theory: survey the population for Covid19 antibodies. That was the essential point of the Gupta et al. paper that Utu pretends is nothing but lies. On the contrary, the paper made a prediction about the ending of the epidemic that proved correct, and made the obvious assumption as to what could cause the ending of the epidemic. Further, the proposed gathering definitive evidence to test that assumption. Sheer empiricism, something that Utu is apparently unable to comprehend.

    ______
    * Lourenco, et al. 2020. Fundamental principles of epidemic spread highlight the immediate need for large-scale serological surveys to assess the stage of the SARS-CoV-2 epidemic

    • Agree: acementhead
    • Replies: @utu
  336. utu says:
    @geokat62

    Jay Bhattacharya and Sunetra Gupta? Bird of feathers… How did they find each other? Perhaps through people who publicized Gupta egregiously wrong result in The Financial Times on March 20 and who let Bhattacharya write for WSJ on March 24 on his seriously flawed result from Santa Clara County:

    Coronavirus may have infected half of UK population …
    https://www.ft.com/content/5ff6469a-6dd8-11ea-89df-41bea055720b

    Is the Coronavirus as Deadly as They Say?
    https://www.wsj.com/articles/is-the-coronavirus-as-deadly-as-they-say-11585088464

    Anyway since then both Jay Bhattacharya and Sunetra Gupta were dropped by the MSM even the ones representing the big business so now they are in the traveling circus on the Youtube.

    • Replies: @geokat62
  337. geokat62 says:
    @utu

    Jay Bhattacharya and Sunetra Gupta? Bird of feathers… How did they find each other?

    Rather than attacking their character, why don’t you try explaining why Sweden’s Daily Deaths curve looks the way it does, WITHOUT mentioning the concept of herd immunity?

    • Replies: @utu
  338. utu says:
    @geokat62

    (1) The most vulnerable learned to dodge the virus so they constitute lower faction among the infected than in the early stage. (2) Improved treatment increasing survivability by factor of 3-4. (3) Possibly lower virus loads due to social distancing and isolation leading to milder course of disease.

    https://www.mcgill.ca/oss/article/covid-19-health/which-sweden-do-you-want-believe
    Which Sweden Do You Want to Believe In?

    Sweden’s COVID Policy Didn’t Create Herd Immunity
    https://www.webmd.com/lung/news/20200813/swedens-no-lockdown-policy-didnt-achieve-herd-immunity

    Sweden didn’t seek herd immunity to the coronavirus, top diplomat says
    https://www.politico.eu/article/sweden-coronavirus-didnt-seek-herd-immunity-torbjorn-sohlstrom/

    • Replies: @geokat62
  339. utu says:
    @CanSpeccy

    Why don’t you read her paper? The only verifiable conclusion was her 40% which turned out to grossly (an order of magnitude) incorrect within 2-3 weeks after her paper got posted. The 2-3 months prediction you keep bringing up was not verifiable.

    Sunetra Gupta in her March 2020 paper did not predict correctly anything relevant (*) and her conclusions of over 40% infections by March 19 was grossly and fraudulently wrong.

    (*) Her statement that the duration of the epidemic will be 2-3 months “in the absence of interventions” was nebulous (±20% margin error) and unverifiable as many interventions affecting R0 were implemented as we know.

    It is a tactical mistake of her defender to bring up the fact that her paper was unrefereed. That suppose to absolve her mistakes which you keep denying she made? But it is OK for me to bring up the fact that her paper remains unrefereed and unpublished because it would not pass the process.

    • Replies: @canspeccy
  340. res says:
    @Philip Owen

    And yet, the shape of the Farr Curve is consistent with a 67% level of herd immunity given the original Ro=3 assumption. This is for Wales which I track (20% over 56) but the UK is similar.

    Could you elaborate on how you are calculating this? How is the Farr Curve impacted by the imposition of countermeasures?

    • Replies: @Philip Owen
  341. geokat62 says:
    @utu

    (1), (2), (3)

    LOL!

    Sweden didn’t seek herd immunity to the coronavirus, top diplomat says…

    Top diplomat, huh? Well, Sweden’s top diplomat is contradicted by its top epidemiologist:

    In an interview with Unherd, [Chief Epidemiologist Anders] Tegnell said: ‘What we are seeing now in Sweden is a rapid decline in the number of cases, and of course some sort of immunity must be responsible for that since nothing else has changed.’

    ‘I think it is likely that such outbreaks will be easier to control in Sweden because there is immunity among the population.’

    The BBC reported earlier this month that Sweden’s antibody rate is fairly similar to that of the UK’s.

    Tegnell has previously denied that his approach to the pandemic was to take a herd immunity angle. However, email exchanges obtained by Swedish journalists under Freedom of Information (FOI) laws show Tegnell discussing the approach as an option in mid-March.

    https://metro.co.uk/2020/08/24/sweden-claiming-beating-covid-widespread-immunity-13171248/

    … and, as you very well know, no epidemiologist worth his salt would come out and say that herd immunity is their STRATEGY. Everyone’s strategy is to keep to a minimum the number of deaths. How they go about doing that is, of course, the crucial question. Many in the West chose the unprecedented policy of mandatory lockdowns. Sweden, on the other hand, stuck to the traditional voluntary approach, which implicitly relies on the underlying mechanism of herd immunity to work its magic. And it appears herd immunity hasn’t lost its magic touch.

    • Replies: @canspeccy
  342. Mises on the Absudity of Covid Cases:

    https://mises.org/wire/absurdity-covid-cases

    So what do these headlines really mean? What exactly is a covid “case”?

    Since the beginning of the coronavirus outbreak, most US media outlets have been exceedingly credulous and complicit in their reporting. Journalists almost uniformly promote what we can call the “prolockdown” narrative, which is to wildly exaggerate the risks from covid-19 to serve a political agenda. They may be motivated to hurt Trump politically, to promote a more socialist “new normal,” or simply to drive more clicks and views. Bad news sells. But the bias is clear and undeniable.

    This explains why media outlets use the terms “case” and “infection” so loosely, to the point of actively misinforming the public. All of the endless talk about testing, testing, testing served to obscure two important facts. First, the tests themselves are almost laughably unreliable in producing both false positives and negatives. And what is the point? Are we going to test people again and again, every time they go out to the grocery or bump into a neighbor? Second, detecting virus particles or droplets in a human’s respiratory tract tells us very little. It certainly does not tell us they are sick, or transmitting sickness to anyone.

    Take a perfectly healthy person with no particular symptoms and swab the inside of their nose. If the culture shows the presence of staphylococcus aureus, do we insist they have a staph infection? When someone drives to work without incident or accident, do we create statistics about their exposure to traffic?

    —A virus is not a disease. Only a very small percentage of those exposed to the virus itself—SARS-CoV-2—show any kind of acute respiratory symptoms, or what we can call “coronavirus disease.”

  343. canspeccy says:
    @utu

    The 2-3 months prediction you keep bringing up was not verifiable.

    Are you an idiot or what?

    Covid deaths in the UK peaked at 1,172 on April 20, one month after publication of Gupta and others predicted the epidemic would be over within two to three months, then fell by 96% to just 43 by June 20. So not only was the prediction made by Gupta and others verifiable, it was verified.

    But there’s no point in arguing with a flim-flam man, or a poor implementation of a vituperative AI comment bot. Better to clarify what herd immunity is.

    Herd immunity refers to the immunity of the herd. Quantitatively it can vary with respect to a particular infectious agent from zero to 100%.

    When a population is said to have achieved herd immunity, it means only that a sufficiently high proportion of the population has immunity to a pathogen to prevent epidemic flare up in the number of infections given the current social arrangements and patterns of behavior. Thus, all countries where Covid deaths have plunged, as they have in the UK and other North temperate zone countries, can be said to have achieved Covid herd immunity.

    Obviously if behavior changes, if people stop washing hands so often or start rubbing noses when they greet, herd immunity will be lost, at least until such time as the frequency of immunity within the population has risen.

    • Replies: @utu
  344. canspeccy says: • Website
    @geokat62

    Everyone’s strategy is to keep to a minimum the number of deaths. How they go about doing that is, of course, the crucial question. Many in the West chose the unprecedented policy of mandatory lockdowns.

    Yes, and the question is how do you end a lockdown which has prevented a rise in population immunity. Well we know the answer to that, although Utu, out of reluctance, perhaps, to reveal his motivation, hasn’t mentioned it. It is to wait for a vaccine. Then the level of herd immunity can be raised without further infections.

    However, there is a cost to vaccination, including placing oneself in the hands of some extremely unpleasant people, with the grotesque ambitions for the takeover of humanity. The vaccines they are developing are of a kind that can hack your genome.

    Naturally, the Silicon Valley crowd are crazy for this: the Borg empire but without that snorkel thingy stuck in your head.

  345. Yes, and the question is how do you end a lockdown which has prevented a rise in population immunity.

    New Zealand, Japan, Korea, China… vs. Austria, Wales, Switzerland, Sweden…

    In the most parts of Switzerland, schools had been open throughout but for a few days. Craftspeople and factories just kept going – no interruptions at all.

    Swiss National Bank chief Thomas Jordan just corrected the expected Swiss GDP loss for 2020 from April – – – he said it will be lower than estimated – ca. 5%. “a serious blow, but we will get over it”, he said – and they will.

    Intensive care at Swiss hospitals has never been a problem. In the Canton Thurgau, which I know from up close, the highest numer of intensive care CO-19 cases was 5 people (population 276 000); most of the time the number was 2 (as is actually the case). The number of intensive care beds is 390.

  346. Wielgus says:

    https://edition.cnn.com/world/live-news/coronavirus-pandemic-10-06-20-intl/h_098b2eddf4dadec303905874998c549a

    Europeans have not been dying like flies from Covid for quite some time, and this might explain Covid “fatigue” – it has been around a while, the restrictions are often far more damaging than the disease itself and the WHO is worried people are not scared enough any more.

  347. geokat62 says:
    @CanSpeccy

    Thanks for the link.

    Favourite quote:

    This corona crisis, according to all we know today, must be renamed a corona scandal and those responsible for it must be criminally prosecuted and sued for civil damages on a political level.

  348. utu says:
    @canspeccy

    Gupta’s prediction was for the case “in the absence of interventions” in the UK (read the paper). In the UK many interventions were implemented so her nebulous ±20% epidemic duration is unverifiable even within ±20% error.

  349. utu says:

    Slight reduction in SARS-CoV-2 exposure viral load due to masking results in a significant reduction in transmission with widespread implementation
    https://www.medrxiv.org/content/10.1101/2020.09.13.20193508v2.full.pdf

    Paper is based on extensive simulations. Model parameter are obtained by fitting to empirical data.

    Reduction in the effective reproductive number (Re) depends on both the mask efficacy levels (eT and eE) and the level of adherence to masking (Fig 4). If we assume 25% of people wear masks 25% of the time, then most variability in results occur due to the stochastic nature of the model (Fig 4a). If we assume that 50% of people wear masks 50% of the
    140 time, then the use of masks with high efficacy of ~0.9 results in a drop of Re from ~1.8 to ~1.0 (Fig 4b). With 75% of people wearing masks 75% of the time, a mask efficacy of ~0.5 allows for a reduction of Re from ~1.8 to ~1.0 (Fig 4c). With 100% of people wearing masks 100% of the time, then a mask efficacy of ~0.3 is sufficient to achieve Re ~1.0, and efficacy of 0.5 in both transmitter and exposed contacts lowers Re to less than 0.6 (Fig 4d).

  350. @Hippopotamusdrome

    Just saw this reply.

    The mask rule needs to be nation wide, not some retarded single city shit. Unless your retarded ass think NYC has the resources to quarantine every inbound outsiders for 3 weeks? And it wasn’t mandatory, enforced with heavy punishment.

    This shit is the same as the retarded repeating superficial lock downs.

    Why would you bring up a retarded point like this?

    • Replies: @CanSpeccy
  351. @res

    I took it from a long thread on Twitter. The 67% is the answer for an R0 of 3.

    Counter measures reduce the Ro. They reduce the initial peak but leave larger populations for subsequent outbreaks to infect. In principle, the fewer countermeasures, the faster herd immunity builds and the less the final death toll in the absence of vaccine. Sweden will show whether this worked. They have had more (but not a lot more) initial deaths but it does now seem over whereas in the UK, we have an unfinished first wave still moving through the population.

    • Replies: @CanSpeccy
  352. CanSpeccy says: • Website
    @Philip Owen

    R nought in Britain was down to something 1.5 or less in late summer. However, the return to school has driven that number way, way up.

    Students returning to university, knowing that Covid won’t affect them worse than a bad cold, are doing what students always do at the beginning of the academic year, socializing in crowded pubs and meeting the opposite (mostly) sex as much as possible.

    The result, a massive Covid outbreak. Thus, in Fallowfield, the student quarter of the city of Manchester — home to UMIST, Europe’s largest university — the Covid infection rate last week was 5%. Yep, one in twenty of the entire population, not just students, had not Covid antibodies, but a current disease infection.

    Result: herd immunity coming soon to the university town near you.

  353. CanSpeccy says: • Website
    @Astuteobservor II

    The mask rule needs to be nation wide, enforced with heavy punishment.

    Yeah, New York should do like North Korea: everyone in public without a mask to be shot on the spot.

    • Replies: @Astuteobservor II
  354. @CanSpeccy

    I like how your retarded ass always miss the point of my comments.

    Always trying to steer the conversation towards the most asinine tidbit you think you got over my comments.

    Please go fuck yourself.

    Repeating the most important points:

    Nation wide 6 weeks quarantine or 3 to 6 months nation wide mandatory masks. Covid fucking 19 solved.

    • Replies: @Yusef
  355. CanSpeccy says: • Website

    Nation wide 6 weeks quarantine or 3 to 6 months nation wide mandatory masks. Covid fucking 19 solved.

    Solved, that is, until some people with Covid19 fly in from another nation, then Covid, fucking or otherwise, unsolved.

    No doubt you have an authoritarian solution to all Covid-related problems, but you will likely find your solutions generate new problems that may be worse than Covid19, a flu-like illness that by late summer was causing fewer deaths in the UK than influenza. And fewer deaths than the anti-covid measures, which have resulted in an increased number of suicides, while denying treatment to tens of thousands of cancer patients and other seriously ill people.

    • Replies: @Astuteobservor II
  356. Yusef says:
    @Astuteobservor II

    “Nation wide 6 weeks quarantine or 3 to 6 months nation wide mandatory masks. Covid fucking 19 solved.”

    So you say.

    Who are you?

    You have literally no basis in fact for your assertion.

    It is a mere decree, and quite frankly I doubt you are emperor.

    I doubt you are even an astute observer. Want to know why?

    You don’t know how to spell observer.

    (Clue: it isn’t observor.)

    • Replies: @Astuteobservor II
  357. CanSpeccy says: • Website
    @Peripatetic Commenter

    WHO official urges world leaders to stop using lockdowns as primary virus control method

    And

    A survey conducted by over a dozen medical institutions for the CDC and published in Sept. 11’s Morbidity and Mortality Weekly Report showed that 85% of those who contracted COVID-19 during July among the study group either “always” or “often” wore face coverings within the 14 days before they were infected. More than 70% of those outpatient individuals who tested positive reported always wearing masks. Just 3.9% reported never wearing a mask.

    Source

    • Replies: @Astuteobservor II
  358. @Yusef

    Another retard falling for the trap with the low hanging fruit. Never thought a simple letter change would do well at weeding out the retards.

    Proof?

    Asian fucking countries are fucking living proofs that those two solutions work.

    Absolutely fucking work.

  359. @CanSpeccy

    Outsiders can easily be solved by border fucking control. All inbounds gets a quarantine for 3 weeks before they are release into the general population. But hey, at least your retarded ass is finally admitting that those two measures work.

    You would think the conservatives would fucking cum in their pants at this chance to a super strong USA border.

    And look at you, another retarded attempt at steering the conversation with your retarded comments about how it is authoritarian. Kindly fuck off with that retarded shit. Also attempting to blame 200k deaths on the superficial lock downs. Fuck off retard. Who are you trying to convince with that retarded shit?

    And mofo, learn to use the reply button. You are retarded, but not that retarded.

    Keep trying to bury the points, I will just repeat.

    6 weeks full quarantine or 3 to 6 months mandatory mask wearing. Covid fucking 19 solved.

  360. @CanSpeccy

    Retard.

    Main point of masking is to reduce the spread of the virus from the breadth of the ones already infected. Thus protecting others.

    Just to preempt your retardation. The reduced viral load would be further reduced if all others are also wearing masks. Thus lowering the r0. Thus covid fucking 19 is over in a few months.

    • Replies: @CanSpeccy
  361. CanSpeccy says: • Website
    @Astuteobservor II

    The reduced viral load would be further reduced if all others are also wearing masks. Thus lowering the r0. Thus covid fucking 19 is over in a few months.

    So then we can apply the same approach to the seasonal fucking flu, T fucking B which presently kills a million or two each year, and, and …. In fact, your covid solution will surely fucking eliminate every other fucking infectious fucking disease at the same time it’s fucking eliminating Covid19.

    Fucking genius.You will surely be known as the greatest benefactor mankind has ever known.

    • Replies: @Astuteobservor II
  362. @CanSpeccy

    It does work on the flu. Why are you so surprised? Why are you asking this stupid question?

    And 1000% yes that a full nation wide quarantine works for all infectious diseases that requires human proximity or contact.

    Why in the hell are you asking such obvious questions?

    No matter how political the WHO is, the guidelines for fighting against deadly infectious diseases are still the gold standard. Cause guess what? Doctors and scientists came out with it. They aren’t something your retarded asses can refute.

  363. canspeccy says: • Website

    They aren’t something your retarded asses can refute.

    Unlike you, refuting arguments with my arse is not something I ever attempt.

    But since you assure us that the means of eradication exist, why do we still have the common cold and influenza, not to mention leprosy, TB, polio, chicken pox, and many, many other diseases at least as deadly as Covid19?

    The fact is, only one disease seems to have been entirely eradicated from the world by human action and that is smallpox, the elimination of which depended on vaccination.

    Perhaps we’ll have a Covid19 vaccine, but if so it will be a remarkable fact since there is no vaccine for any of the handful of other corona viruses, including the common cold, that we presently live with.

  364. Sean says:

    https://blogs.bmj.com/bmj/2020/09/24/karl-friston-how-should-we-respond-to-an-upsurge-in-covid-19-cases/
    When one models what is likely to happen—in terms of viral spread and our responses to it—a plausible worst-case scenario is a peak in daily deaths in the tens (e.g., 50 to 60) not hundreds, in November. […] [P]opulation immunity augments the efficacy of physical distancing—and both make contact tracing easier […] We have already developed a substantial population immunity (around 8% in the UK)

    And all our yesterdays have lighted fools.
    The way to dusty death. …

    MSN UK
    Covid death toll rises by 150 – nearly double last week’s increase … Britain today recorded its highest number of coronavirus deaths in four months

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