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Lifetime net fiscal contribution of first-generation immigrants and their children for 42 regions of origin.

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Many Western countries began immigration policies without feeling any need to monitor the long-term results. Indeed, many considered that immigration was an expedient response to labour shortages, and that the labourers, such as Turkish guest-workers in Germany, would probably eventually want to return home with their earnings at retirement. The United Kingdom seems to have begun its largest and most transformative policy in a typical fit of absent-mindedness. Workers were needed by London Underground, and that influx from the Caribbean began a de facto immigration policy, to which permissive legislation was added later, giving rights to all Commonwealth countries. In some sense it seemed a temporary expedient, and nothing more. Travel was by steamer, things happened slowly, and immigration proceeded steadily.

Western governments have rarely carried out large scale and detailed analyses of the benefits and costs of immigration with country-of-origin comparisons. Even now, it is hard to obtain good quality data on immigrants from different countries. For some host countries, even carrying out such analyses was deemed unseemly: immigration was seen as a fundamentally good policy, which should not be questioned. France was an example of a country which deliberately did not study such matters, because every citizen was a citizen, and comparisons are odious in the eyes of the Republic. As a result, French citizens are free to imagine the worst.

However, there are many general studies of immigrants’ contributions to the labour force, usually concluding that young immigrants are net contributors. Only studies which do the accounts over the entire lifetime (i.e. from the moment of birth or immigration to the moment of death or repatriation) give a full picture, in that young people become old, and require more services later in life. Many studies are often restricted to those coming specifically to work in the host country, and don’t include students and asylum seekers.

A typical finding is given in a 2014 OECD study:

Immigrants are thus neither a burden to the public purse nor are they a panacea for addressing fiscal challenges. In most countries, except in those with a large share of older migrants, migrants contribute more in taxes and social contributions than they receive in individual benefits. This means that they contribute to the financing of public infrastructure, although admittedly to a lesser extent than the native-born.

In contrast to these generally positive claims, albeit they admit some shortcomings, it is a welcome surprise to find that researchers in one country have been able to gather extensive official data from Statistics Netherlands which allows costs and benefits to be studied carefully in the long term, with results tabulated according to reasons for immigration, and by country of origin. At the moment this study of immigration to the Netherlands is in Dutch, but there is an English summary, and a full English translation is being prepared. If you want to contribute to that, so that the study might be read by English speaking governments, then the donation link is given here:

“The Borderless Welfare State” Jan van de Beek, Hans Roodenburg, Joop Hartog and Gerrit Kreffer, 2021, Amsterdam School of Economics.

(English abstract begins on page 19)

The authors stick closely to the economics of immigration, and report their findings in financial terms, without going into any deeper causes.

The report aimed to answer two questions:

1) What are the fiscal costs and benefits of immigration by migration motive (labour, study, asylum & family migration) and by region of origin?
2) To what extent can immigration provide a solution to the ageing population in the Netherlands?

The current report is an update of the Public Sector chapter of the report Immigration and the Dutch Economy (2003) by the Netherlands Bureau for Economic Policy Analysis (CPB). Both reports deploy the method of generational accounting to calculate the net contribution – revenues minus expenses – of immigrants to public finances, measured from the moment of their immigration to the time of repatriation or death. This net contribution is the key concept of the current study.

The study uses microdata from 2016 provided by Statistics Netherlands. These are very detailed, anonymized data of all 17 million Dutch residents, including about two million people with a first-generation migration background and almost two million people with a second-generation migration background.

It is rare to have a dataset of this quality, completeness, and size. The authors took 2016 data and studied 23 cost/benefit items. They then used detailed estimates of the future (post 2016) development of those 23 items used by the Netherlands Bureau for Economic Policy Analysis (CPB) in their population ageing studies.

The authors find that:

The rapid pace of immigration into the Netherlands has greatly increased the Dutch population, but not the sustainability of the Dutch welfare state. Of the 17 million Dutch inhabitants at the end of 2019, 13% were born abroad (first generation) and 11% were children of immigrants (second generation).

Currently, per capita expenditures on immigrants are significantly higher than on indigenous people in areas such as education, social security and benefits. Moreover, immigrants pay fewer taxes and social security premiums, which further lowers their net fiscal contribution. The current study looks back at past data as well as forecasts from Statistics Netherlands to calculate the total cost of immigration for the next two decades if policy remains unchanged.

Figure 2.3 gives the immigration history of the Netherlands in a snapshot.

Since 1900 there have always been some Westerners coming in to the country, but non-Westerners started coming in the 1970s and it is predicted (“prognose”) that by 2060 their higher birth-rates and continued immigration will make them about 23% of the population.

There is a very big difference in financial contribution according to the reason for gaining entry to the country:

Those coming to take up a job generate a positive net contribution of, on average, €125,000 ($152,500) per immigrant.

Those coming to study cost €75,000 ($91,500) per immigrant.

Those entering for “family formation” or “family reunification” cost €275,000 ($335,500) per immigrant. (Get one immigrant, then get their marriage partner, then get other family members including elderly parents).

Asylum seekers cost €475,000 ($579,500) per immigrant.

There are also considerable differences by region of origin. On average, Western immigrants make a positive contribution of €25,000 ($30,500), while non-western immigrants cost nearly €275,000 ($335,500). Within the categories of Western and non-Western there is, however, much variation.
Immigration from most Western regions usually has a positive fiscal impact. Immigrants from Japan, North America, Oceania, the British Isles, Scandinavia, and Switzerland, in particular, make a significant positive contribution of roughly €200,000 ($244,000) per immigrant. On the other hand, immigration from Central and Eastern EU-member states costs about €50,000 ($61,000). Immigration from former Yugoslavia and the former Soviet Union mainly concerns asylum seekers, who cost much more at €150,000 ($183,000).

Table 0.2 gives detailed results.

The authors comment on the differences between immigrants from different countries as follows:

Immigration from non-Western regions is usually unfavourable for public finances. This applies especially to the areas of origin Caribbean, West-Asia, Turkey and North, Central and West Africa with net costs ranging from €200,000 to €400,000 per immigrant, and Morocco, the Horn of Africa and Sudan with net cost of €550,000 to €600.000 per immigrant. By way of comparison: an average Dutch native is roughly ‘budget-neutral over’ his or her life.

For all migration motives, Western immigrants seem to ‘perform better’ than non-Western immigrants. The difference is approximately €125,000 for labour and study migrants, and €250,000 for asylum and family migrants.

In isolation, only two categories seem favourable for Dutch public finances; labour migration from western countries (except Central and Eastern European countries), Asia (except the Middle-East) and Latin America, as well as study migration from the EU. All other forms of immigration are at best budget-neutral or have a considerable negative fiscal impact. The highest net costs apply to asylum migration from Africa. It should be noted that study and labour immigration usually come with family migration, which may have a considerable negative impact on the combined net contribution.

Almost by definition, the Dutch citizenry are budget neutral over a lifetime, but if the Dunedin data are anything to go by, it will be because 20% of citizens need 80% of the financial support. Call them the Very Needy. The problem with predominantly low-skilled immigration in a welfare state is that you add too many people to the “Very Needy” benefit-receiving category.

The remaining 20% of benefits will go to the middle 40% of the population: people who need support only every now and then. Call them the Trampoline People: they bounce back.

So, to summarise what welfare states are like (using the Dunedin studies as a prime example): 20% of citizens get 80% of the money; 40% of citizens get the remaining 20% of the money; the top 40% contribute a lot but get nothing back, except perhaps the satisfaction of having helped the other 60% of their fellow countrymen. In fact, they may get nothing back but still be deeply resented, but that is another story. Call them Altruists, or Suckers, or the Blood Sucking Elite, depending on your perspective.

The authors then turn to the crucial matter of second-generation outcomes. Clearly, if everything goes well in the second generation, first-generation costs may seem worthwhile. Here are the main findings:

For only a limited number of countries and regions is the second generation as well or better integrated than natives. On a scale on which the natives are 100% integrated, some immigrants are even more successful. These are mainly the Scandinavian countries and Switzerland (110%) and some East Asian countries, notably Japan (128%), China (115%) and the Asian Tigers (South Korea, Hong Kong, Taiwan and Singapore, 104%).

Those first-generation migrants who cost the country a lot, produce second generations who either also cost a lot, or at best are only budget neutral, such that the net present value of future generations will not pay back the cost incurred by that first generation. Things have not “changed for the better” as those in favour of immigration often assert. Certainly, on average the second generation in many respects performs better than the first, but this doesn’t offset the costs of the first generation for those groups with net costs for the first generation. A simple reason is that for the first generation the costs of education and youth-related expenditures etc. mainly have already been paid by the source country, and for the second generation those costs are paid by the host country. The second generation includes those immigrants who marry among their own group (two parents with immigration background) and those who have mixed background (one local with one immigrant).

The Dutch CITO tests are administered at age 12. The Cito exam (Cito-toets) is an independent assessment of final year Dutch primary school pupils. It is given in February and an estimated 167,000 children sat the exams in 2021.

The examinations have been given for 35 years and 90 percent of pupils are given 290 multiple choice questions testing their Dutch and comprehension skills, mathematics, world orientation (which involves geography, biology and history) and study skills. The authors point out that the “Cito test” at the end of primary school is not an intelligence test, but an assessment tool for the so-called 8th grade school recommendation. On this basis children will be advised to go to either more academic or more vocational schools, according to their scores.

Despite Cito not being a formal intelligence test, on the basis of extensive UK data on secondary school intelligence tests at age 11 and national scholastic examinations at age 16, correlations as high as 0.8 might be expected between the two. Scholastic tests early in schooling are usually good predictors of later exam success. So, though Cito is not an intelligence test, it is a good predictor of later educational progress, and a good indicator of general mental ability.

Furthermore, the authors find a strong relationship between education and net lifetime contribution to the Dutch treasury. A higher level of education on average implies a higher net contribution. In the same vein, a higher score on the so-called ‘Cito test’ – a 50-point student assessment scale for primary education – is correlated with a higher net contribution to Dutch state coffers. The lead author points out that if you make a map of the world showing the net fiscal contribution immigrants make (as shown above), and another map of the world showing the Cito scores of immigrants from those countries, the two maps correlate so strongly it is hard to tell the difference.

The Cito scores of the 1st generation are good predictors of success as an immigrant.

The Cito scores of the 1st generation correlate:

  • .78 with lifetime net fiscal contribution of the 1st generation
  • .86 with cito scores of the 2nd generation
  • .72 with cito scores of the 3th generation
  • .72 with lifetime net fiscal contribution of the 2nd generation
  • .80 with the integration-indicator for the 2nd generation

The authors also find that brighter immigrants are more likely to be able to re-emigrate, presumably because they can even further better their circumstances. The emigration rate after 10 years correlates r = .86 with the Cito scores (page 196).

Cito scores are strongly correlated with the educational level of the first generation, with the Chinese as a notable exception, in that first generation poorly educated Chinese parents led to high Cito scores for the first, second and third generation.

Selecting on the educational level of the first generation is thus the best way to select for positive results for the host country’s treasury (provided one has a sound method of assessing the real value of ‘foreign diplomas and educational certificates’). As a rule of thumb: immigrants on average should have at least bachelor level (“hbo-bachelor” in the Dutch educational hierarchy) in order to show a neutral or positive net fiscal contribution. This is lower and more usual qualification for those not going to university.

The educational attainments of immigrants are very important. Immigrants with at most primary education cost €400,000, immigrants with a master’s degree contribute € 300,000.

As regards their test data, they say:

Furthermore, a robust correlation exists between net contribution and scores on the so-called ‘Cito test’, a 50-point student assessment scale for primary education. For natives, lifetime net contributions range from roughly –€400,000 for the lowest Cito score to +€300,000 for the highest Cito score. For people with a second-generation migration background, a similar correlation exists, though at a considerably lower level.

There are considerable differences in Cito scores between regions of origin and also between migration motives. At group level, the net contribution of first-generation and second-generation immigrants is closely related to the Cito scores. The Cito scores and the educational level of the second generation are strongly related to the educational level of the first generation. Partly for this reason, any educational attainment of the first generation affects the net contribution of the second generation. ‘Mixed relationships and marriages’ have a considerable positive effect on the Cito scores and thus, the net contribution of the second generation.

So, the Netherlands will not get richer by immigration. Might new immigrants at least boost the birth rate sufficiently to help compensate for an aged population?

For almost half a century, the average number of children per woman has been around 1.7, well below the replacement level of approximately 2.1 needed for a constant population size. This causes every new generation to be smaller in size than the previous one, resulting in a dwindling share of young people in the population, a process sometimes referred to as “dejuvenation”. It also leads to an increase in the so-called grey pressure, that is, an increase in the ratio between the over-65s and people in the age group 20 to 65 years.

In line with the literature, this study found that solving dejuvenation by immigration resembles a pyramid or Ponzi scheme. A simulation shows that ever-increasing numbers of immigrants are needed to keep the Dutch grey pressure at the 2020 level. This results in significant population growth: 35 million inhabitants by the year 2060, 75 million at the end of this century, and half a billion by the year 2200.

Immigration does not provide a stable solution to population ageing because the underlying problems of low fertility and dejuvenation are not resolved. On average, fertility of immigrants is below the replacement level as well, partly because women from high fertility groups adjust their fertility downwards over time, and partly because immigrants from most countries in the Americas, Europe and Eastern Asia already have low fertility rates.

This is a sobering finding. Immigration is not making the country richer, nor is it sustaining the original citizens. It will merely make them minorities in their over-populated country. Might a way out of this dilemma be found by getting the larger immigrant population to fund healthcare and pensions for the elderly?

Due to the increasing ageing of the population (the grey pressure), the costs for healthcare and state pensions are rising rapidly. The current study challenges the idea that it is possible to absorb the additional costs of an ageing population through immigration.

Immigration as a means of absorbing the costs of an ageing population encounters the same practical objection as the strategy of immigration as a demographic solution to the ageing population, being strong population growth. A simulation shows that closing a permanent financial gap in public finances of 2.5% of gross domestic product, by admitting labour migrants with high economic potential, would lead to additional population growth of 7.2 million inhabitants in the period 2020-2080. In addition, mass recruitment of high-potential migrants may prove difficult in practice, as most high net contributors currently come from countries that are themselves grappling with a rapidly aging population and/or trying to attract highly skilled immigrants.

So, it would seem that this is another non-starter. Talent is what counts, and not every country can win the war for talent.

The authors point out that, given current costs and the projections for future immigration 2020-2040, the total cost of immigration will continue to rise, by an extra €600 billion ($732 billion). This is a projection, but it seems likely to be an accurate one, since cultural explanations of assimilation as a learning process assume that first generation immigrants will adapt relatively quickly and the second generation will complete any remaining steps required to blend with the host population. That is to say, if it has not happened in the second generation, there seems to be little justification for assuming it will happen in the third generation.

A slight increase in asylum seekers would lead to a significant increase in future costs. If the volume of asylum migration from West Asia and Africa kept pace with the population growth there, this alone would result in additional costs of €64 billion ($78 billion).

Less costly outcomes would require a fundamental policy change. If labour migration came only from Western countries (not including Central and Eastern Europe), from Latin America and Asia (except the Middle East), and if there was also a 50% reduction in family migration and a 90% reduction in asylum migration, then total immigration would not even be absolutely budget neutral. This scenario is highly selective. And would require changes in international treaties, such as the UN Refugee Convention.

The authors venture some policy implications:

The net costs of immigration to the government are considerable, and projections show they will consume a steadily increasing portion of the annual government budget. These costs are mainly due to redistribution through the welfare state. Continuation of the current level of immigration and current arrangements of the welfare state increases pressure on public finances. Downsizing the welfare state and/or curtailment of immigration will then be inevitable.

Immigration does not appear to be a solution to the ageing population either. In essence, ageing is mainly dejuvenation due to a low fertility rate. The only structural solution for that is an increase in the average number of children per woman in the Netherlands to approximately 2.1.
As this report demonstrates, educational attainment of the first generation, and school success of children of the first and second generation are quintessential for positive outcomes.
A more structural approach is to monitor the costs of current immigration flows and to keep an account of the outstanding claims that immigrants have on the treasury. This brings us to the value of periodic surveys of net contributions. The Dutch government has not published data on net contributions to public finances of migrants since 2003. We can only guess the reasons for this. Hopefully, this research will make it clear that this information is necessary for the foundation of policies and insight into future government spending.
Immigrants that make on average a significantly negative contribution to Dutch public finances are mainly those who exercise the right to asylum, especially if they come from Africa and the Middle East. The latest UN population forecast shows that the total population in these areas will increase from 1.6 billion to 4.7 billion by the end of this century. It is not implausible that the migration potential will at least keep pace. Migration pressure, in particular on the welfare states in North-Western Europe, will therefore increase to an unprecedented degree. This raises the question of whether maintaining the open-ended arrangement enshrined in the existing legal framework is a realistic option under these circumstances.

As far as I know, this is the only published study on the costs and benefits of immigration conducted on detailed official financial statistics for an entire national population and tracing everything back to the country of origin of immigrants, and also for their reason for emigrating.

It is a considerable contribution, in that it puts the many claims which have been made about immigration to an evidence-based test. It is a sober economic study, restricting itself to the data, but venturing a cultural and educational explanation for the costs of immigration. They mention World Values Survey data such as Traditional vs Secular/Rational values, and Survival vs Self-Expression values. They also mention World Values Survey clusters of immigrants largely into religious/belief groups. The authors have backgrounds in mathematics, anthropology, economics, sociology and demography, but make it clear they are not psychometricians.

It is astounding that there are few comparable publications on detailed national data, given that immigration is, de facto, a major policy in the West. If anyone seriously argues that these results are specific to the Netherlands, then they should back up their claim by referencing studies of commensurate quality and detail drawn from several other nations.

• Category: Economics, Science • Tags: Immigration, Netherlands, Welfare State 
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  1. ruralguy says:

    Excellent story that shows the western immigration policies are not economically sustainable,. An even better approach is to analyze the loss of structure in social networking in advanced and failed nations, because economic function derives from the microeconomic behaviors of people. In failed nations, these poor behaviors leads to no ability to integrate into economic function. That’s why they immigrate to successful nations. But, they bring their behaviors with them. As a result, the advance nations lose their economic structure. This has been modelled using statistical mechanics in various applications of Econophysics.

    • Agree: Irish Savant, aj54
    • Replies: @Leo Den
    , @Hannah Katz
  2. UNIT472 says:

    It should be apparent that low skill low education migrants are migrants because they had already failed in their homelands. Even in Sub Saharan Africa or Meso America the majority of the population do not attempt to move to another nation even if it has a higher standard of living because such a journey puts at risk their position in their current social setting and with no guarantee they will be more successful in the new one. Only the dregs have nothing to lose and everything to gain by illegally migrating to a new nation and only then if they can access that nation’s social welfare system.

    Deny uninvited migrants such access and they have no incentive to come. Starving to death on the sidewalk in Chicago or Rotterdam is no better than starving to death on the street in Cameroon or Honduras except it gets a lot colder in the winter in Chicago and Rotterdam.

    • Agree: HbutnotG
    • Replies: @babu
  3. dearieme says:

    We should thank our cloggie cousins for putting numbers on the costs of mass immigration to advanced western nations.

    Our Japanese friends might wonder why on earth we tried the experiment when the results were so predictable.


    From ‘Fate of Empires’ by Sir John Glubb

    “In the age of the first outburst and the subsequent Age of Conquests, the race is normally ethnically more or less homogeneous. This state of affairs facilitates a feeling of solidarity and comradeship. But in the Ages of Commerce and Affluence, every type of foreigner floods into the great city, the streets of which are reputed to be paved with gold. As, in most cases, this great city is also the capital of the empire, the cosmopolitan crowd at the seat of empire exercises a political influence greatly in excess of its relative numbers.”

    • Agree: Old Brown Fool
  5. Typical. You’re all worried about welfare. Welfare is not the problem. Immigrants taking jobs away from natives and totally kiboshing any possible union organizing or solidarity of any kind, is what the real problem is.

    • Replies: @res
  6. Voltarde says:

    Thank you for writing this article. Thanks also to the authors of the outstanding research that you cited.

    A key factor in the decline of the indigenous TFR in developed countries like Holland is the cost of affordable family formation. That cost in turn is related to the cost of housing in a neighborhood with good physical and socio-economic infrastructure and quality of life (public utilities, middle-class job opportunities, low crime, good schools, etc.).

    As with many things in life, appearances also matter. The aphorism “Location, location, location” in the real estate industry reflects the fact that middle-class neighborhoods are typically most desirable when they are well-maintained and in physically pleasant surroundings. There’s a limited supply of such locations and neighborhoods.

    However, good middle-class neighborhoods can be difficult to maintain. They can be destroyed by the loss of job opportunities due to automation or outsourcing, or new arrivals who can only realistically compete for the least skilled employment opportunities if they try to join the workforce at all. Unlike talent, greed and vanity are never in short supply in human populations, and hence crime can find an easy foothold among such new arrivals.

    Immigrants with a net positive contribution to the public fisc will also drive a decline in the indigenous TFR unless their numbers, quality, and geographic distribution are such that they gentrify less desirable neighborhoods or create new, desirable, and affordable middle-class ones to a greater extent than they price indigenous citizens out of middle-class neighborhoods and affordable family formation.

    • Agree: LondonBob
    • Thanks: Polistra
    • Replies: @CanSpeccy
  7. TG says:

    Governments do not have immigration policies. They have policies aimed at forcing population growth.

    You can’t just look at the financial impact of ‘immigrants’, that’s meaningless by itself. You have to look at the entire increase in population over time due to immigration, including their descendants. And you can’t just look at the financial costs per immigrant, that also misses the point. You need to look at the impact of the total population increase, and ask if it was matched with a corresponding increase in housing, fresh water availability, transportation capacity, industrial infrastructure, etc.

    California used to have a population of about 10 million. Largely due to government immigration policy, the population of California has been roughly quadrupled to about 40 million. And water is running short – even though the long term trend in precipitation is flat! – and the roads are clogged, and homelessness is rising… just looking at the narrow financial impact of ‘immigrants’ misses the obvious.

    And why isn’t this being discussed? Because forcing population growth drives wages and living standards for the working class down, and rents and profits for the rich, up. Surely this is obvious?

    • Replies: @UNIT472
  8. UNIT472 says:

    Quite true and that is another important point. California still only has ONE Golden Gate Bridge with the same number of lanes it had when it opened in 1935/36? It has the same freeways it had 50 years ago when it became the most populous state with 18 million people and adding lanes for HOV does not increase capacity much. HSR won’t work because more people can fly faster between LA and SF than what a train can possibly carry. Most importantly the hydrology of the state has, if anything, deteriorated over the years. Seems it is in a prolonged dry spell that could last a century or more.

    In short, California, if it wants to be ‘Green’ needs to shed population not become a sanctuary for every 5 foot tall Guatemalan.

    • Replies: @TG
    , @Alden
  9. res says:

    Embrace the power of “and.”

    • Agree: RadicalCenter
    • Replies: @DrWatson
    , @Bert
  10. res says:

    It is good to have numbers like this as an example to inject some reality into the immigration conversation. Thanks to you and the study authors!

  11. Franz says:

    Immigration does not appear to be a solution to the ageing population either. In essence, ageing is mainly dejuvenation due to a low fertility rate.

    Translated from academic-speak:

    Opportunities and wages for young couples have gotten so lousy because of open borders that they aren’t having kids.

    And this is going on its second generation in the US/UK. From the moment the likes of Maggie and Ron thought “work don’t matter let the CEOs have their way” working class wages went into a tailspin and they never got out.

    This is what Brimelow meant about the long turnaround in demographic trends: What started 40 years ago is now bearing the bitter results that workers, union chiefs, and others told us would come.

  12. So much better reasoned then the libertarian economists and lawyers pushing open borders for their oligarch masters.

    The numbers for immigration have not added for a very long time.

    • Agree: Mefobills, RadicalCenter
  13. J says:

    The study takes for granted the current Welfare State arrangements. But the Welfare State (high public health expenses, subsidized education, old age social security) is not sustainable with or without immigration. It will have to go. As the Ancient Greeks knew, war is the natural state of the world. Thus, the question is if immigration increases or decreases national power. The answer may be positive.

    • Disagree: RadicalCenter
  14. Anonymous[117] • Disclaimer says:

    Actually, no one invited in the so called “Windrush” pioneers.
    Jamaican immigration to the USA, the usual destination, had been blocked in 1948, and as purely speculative money making venture, a ship owner, with a boat bound on a Jamaica – London voyage, cannily offered up one way berths to make a quick buck – yes, it really was as casual and mercenary as that.

    On arrival in London, British government ministers and officials pleaded with the Windrush emigrants to go home.
    Famously, a senior Labour MP stated that ‘there’s nothing to worry about, they won’t last a single English winter’.

    The myth that Caribbean blacks were imported to ‘reconstruct war shattered Britain’, is just that, a myth.

    • Agree: Charon
    • Replies: @Anon
  15. Important article and data, thanks

    The instructive image at the top of the article, should more helpfully link to a larger version, with the caption in the image, instead of just a repeat of the small one sized for the article lede

    • Agree: Polistra
  16. Danesovan says:

    I find it hard to believe that Latin American immigrants contribute more than Central Europeans and that Japanese and Koreans integrate better in a Germanic country than Scandinavians do.

    • Replies: @threestars
  17. Altai says:

    Many Western countries begin their immigration policies with just such an eye to that. The bulk of immigration into Western Europe has been from EU immigration and asylum and chain migration derived from them. Two forms which national governments have no real power to stop. So far only Denmark has gotten away with deterring asylum seekers with tougher standards but it is still obligated to take them, even if it has made the bar harder to get over and it’s not clear that they’ll be allowed to get away with it forever.

    Japan still takes some asylum seekers (It wouldn’t be allowed to not take any) despite almost everyone who comes to Japan clearly not being in fear of their lives and taking refuge in the nearest safe place.

    If the EU didn’t have freedom of movement and asylum laws were tied to what they were originally designed for, prominent specific persecuted individuals rather than whole ethnicities, there wouldn’t be an immigration problem in Western Europe at all.

    Australia, New Zealand and Canada might be the only examples where policies are explicitly set up to inundate the population with deeply foreign people but it’s okay because they’re ‘skilled’. Fortunately none of these countries has problems with squeezed middle classes or home ownership…

    • Replies: @Anonymous
  18. Altai says:

    One problem I have with analyses like this is it goes into the typical economist turbo autism of ‘net contributor’. If I give a well paying job to an immigrant and they pay more than they take in welfare, they are a ‘net contributor’ but this is deeply autistic since it ignores if said person has increased the wealth in society more than their presence detracts. Could his job have been done otherwise without having to find resources to sustain this new person? Almost certainly yes and if it couldn’t, is the job being filled worth more than the resources it takes to sustain them? Almost certainly not.

    Do immigrants raise per capita GPD? Outside a very few exceptions, the answer is no. ‘Contributing’ and ‘Non-contributing’ don’t factor this.

    I have seen no cases where immigration (In a Western context) increase per capita GPD. In Ireland the EU themselves had to admit that EU immigrants had decreased GPD overall, before getting into per capita GPD and before considering non-EU immigration. And that’s before we get into GPD as an absolutely juiced figure that increases with demand without that demand representing new capital or wealth.

    In the UK the EU came to a 3% increase in GPD for a more than 12% increase in population from EU immigration that comes with a lot of external costs that cannot or are not calculated and no benefits whatsoever for which the same could be said.

    • Agree: utu, Charon
    • Replies: @m___
    , @Anonymous
  19. Anonymous[117] • Disclaimer says:

    Pure nonsense.

    Firstly, immigration, per se, cannot fund social security entitlements, as in effect, it is erecting a Ponzi scheme which will inevitably collapse and spectacularly collapse.
    Secondly, third world immigrants are tax drains throughout their lives – infancy, working and retirement. Thus all they do is destroy welfare states.
    Thirdly, the number of warm bodies packed into a state has no correlation with wealth or power – otherwise Bangladesh and Nigeria would be beating out the world.

    No: The only way out of this conundrum is to do what humans have done for ever – raise individual productivity levels.
    Massive third world immigration is unspeakably dumb policy – it serves to destroy productivity growth.

    • Replies: @The Anti-Gnostic
  20. Anonymous[117] • Disclaimer says:

    No, buddy.

    A sovereign nation can take any measure it likes to keep out undesirables – this is just basic commonsense and Civics 101.
    The trouble is that European states are run by abject cowards – unworthy of the high office voters have lent to them – and out and out immigrationists.

    There is no ‘complex problem’ here, just pure cowardice, inertia and stupidity.

    You note how CEOs of big companies are never shy of using their executive powers – no matter how controversial their actions might be – for the benefit of their corporation and corporation alone. For some reason politics attracts indecisive addled brain cowards.

  21. Anonymous[234] • Disclaimer says:

    The economic cost is considerable but is still nothing in comparison to the destructive social forces the immigration from culturally alien and/or low IQ countries brings.

    Erosion of trust, lowering of educational standards, increased crime, bigger government and increase in welfare/nanny state – all this compounds the direct economic costs dramatically.

    In short: mass immigration = suicide.

    • Agree: Charon
    • Replies: @SafeNow
  22. anon[925] • Disclaimer says:

    Our Japanese friends might wonder why on earth we tried the experiment when the results were so predictable.

    The Japanese are also rapidly opening their immigration system (it rapidly accelerated around 2018). To be fair though so far most seem to be southeast asians or south asians, so maybe their net impact won’t be so bad.

    I think the Jewish/American influence is one factor, but another is that a lot of societies which accept capitalism/liberalism have a hard time maintaining stable populations, as the cost of raising kids is privatized and the benefits are socialized. If the Japanese didn’t accept mass immigration, they’d have to spend some time with shrinking populations and probably shrinking GDP. I personally think they’d be better off eating that cost, but it is a real problem and it probably makes the Jewish/American infiltrators’ calls for open borders more appealing to Japanese elites.

    • Replies: @anon
    , @Old Brown Fool
  23. SafeNow says:

    “The economic cost is considerable but is still nothing in comparison to the destructive social forces the immigration from culturally alien and/or low IQ countries brings.”

    Exactly right. Here in California, I have watched over decades while a relaxed proficiency and conscientiousness ethos has taken hold. The unraveled performance level of “getting it basically okay” also exists in the second generation of migrants from south of the border. Further, it is contagious across races, occupations, institutions, government, daily life, and geography. This contagiousness had a manageable effect when it was only affirmative action. But when unvetted, uncontrolled hispanic migration is added to affirmative action, the affronts, frustrations, compromises, and humiliations of life become dreadful. In sum, a good article on economics, but that aspect is only the tip of the iceberg.

    • Replies: @CelestiaQuesta
  24. Cito scores are strongly correlated with the educational level of the first generation, with the Chinese as a notable exception, in that first generation poorly educated Chinese parents led to high Cito scores for the first, second and third generation.

    The genetic quality of China’s lower social classes is remarkably high.

    The lower half of the Chinese population work hard, build stable families, are not violent, and are reasonably intelligent.

    China does not have a dysfunctional underclass.

  25. Whatever happened to Multi-Culturalism?

    It seems Multi-Culturalism was part of Jewish bait-and-switch. Initially, Jews attacked Western Civilization and the White West by calling for appreciation and celebration of ALL Cultures, especially those of key minorities. But, Jews showed no interest in the real values of Hindus, Arabs, Muslims, East Asians, North Africans, and many other groups. But then, why should they? Most cultures around the world tend to be conservative and traditionalist, at least relative to the deracinated West. Jews used Multi-Culturalism only to the extent of rallying nonwhites(as victims) into a coalition against whites(as perennial villains). It was never about any genuine appreciation of different cultures. Indeed, the globo-homo & tranny-tyranny cult has proven the lie of Multi-Culturalism. Instead of promoting various cultures equally, Jewish Power favors ‘gay pride’ uber alles. US embassies don’t fly banners saying PALESTINIAN LIVES MATTER. Only Jewish Identity and Black Identity get equal billing with globo-homo. The rest are all sideshows or mere backdrop. As most cultures around the world are anti-‘gay’ agenda, Jews know that true Multi-Culturalism would be mostly anti-globo-homo and tranny-tyranny. So, instead of urging homos to respect other cultures, Jews demand that all cultures change their values and alter their attitudes to welcome, promote, and celebrate homo decadence and tranny degeneracy. Jews especially target the urban affluent and/or educated in cities around the world as such types tend to be most deracinated, rootless, status-conscious, and eager to conform to global trends emanating from Jewish-run metropoles. This is good for Jews because they totally control the money and brains behind globo-homo and also because homos and trannies are avid allies of Jews as both groups have much to gain from spreading rootless globalism and vain cult of narcissism around the world. Globo-Homo is essentially proxy of Jewish Hegemonism. Furthermore, globo-homo is a useful diversion for Jewish Power. If people direct their outrage at ‘gays’ and trannies, Jews themselves get less abuse. Jews are also devious. While the bulk of Jewish Power pushes globo-homo, Jews also take on the token role as opponents of globo-homo. Thus, Jews hedge their bets and even fool dimwit or sappy conservatives into believing that Jews are on their side.

  26. @dearieme

    Over 10 years ago, the Canadian government admitted that the annual net cost of immigration, excluding remittances sent home, was $35B. The remittances are currently estimated by the World Bank as being $40B annually.
    The Dutch study (and good on it) is nothing that governments don’t know. It is information they want suppressed.
    Immigration has always been an economic issue the the general population instinctively understands as being bad for it. The Kalergi plan has been expanded, but don’t talk about it, you racist.

  27. Rbze says:

    Well, immigration is not mean to benefit average citizens. It is meant to benefit the financial class, which it does. It is also meant to destroy the welfare state. Political parties in Sweden have even admitted that they support immigration for the purpose of overwhelming the welfare state. It also helps create nice little fifth column voting blocks that can give technocrats more control over the democratic process.

    So mass immigration is accomplishing what it was designed to accomplish.

    • Agree: Sarah
    • Replies: @Bill Jones
  28. Anon[124] • Disclaimer says:

    Nonsense! There are two reasons for everything, a good reason and the real reason.

    Men usually return from fighting wars with a well justified sense of entitlement, including the benefits of opportunities towards upward mobility due to their real past sacrifices and those of their fallen brothers in arms. This is indeed threatening to those at the very top.

    Various unions were very strong at the time in Britain (America, Canada and Australia too) so the third world migrants were brought in first to boost profits by driving down wages but also to keep the working classes in their respective lower places.

    Divide and Rule, the same as it ever was.

    • Replies: @Jamesc
  29. anon[820] • Disclaimer says:

    If the Japanese didn’t accept mass immigration, they’d have to spend some time with shrinking populations and probably shrinking GDP.

    The population of Japan has been declining for several years already, yet GDP has not. If the trend continues, in about 30 years the population will decline to 100,000,000 or so. Japan does not need immigration to survive or compete.

    • Agree: Sarah, Polistra
    • Replies: @Knucklehead
  30. UK Conservative Government 1955 under Winston Churchill (who was comatose) banned female nighttime shift work which had been authorized during war.

    Textile firms needed male labour working for female wages to work night shifts. Kashmir was building dams and outplaying small peasant farmers in Mirpur who were imported to Northern textile towns in UK from Pakistan

    Germany was forced to import Turkish male overpopulation by USA against Adenauer‘s wishes but US wanted to rearm Germany inside NATO but needed Turkey to agree

    Turkish military regime wanted jobs for high birth rate male population so cut a deal with USA

    Germany had lots of Italians coming to Germany and could have survived without Turks

  31. zard says:

    The immigration wave has nothing to do with feeling sorry for these immigrants, or wanting to help them out.

    1. Growth- The current system demands growth, and that only comes with more people that can be loaded up with DEBT.

    2. Destabilizing society for political gains- Offering stupid people free everything will always get votes, and they know this. The second part of this is not allowing mostly white people to unite in a common cause. Traditionally white people have figured out the Talmudic jew scams in the past and done something about it. This is why jews have been kicked out of 84 countries 109 times in 2000 years! Messing up the population and keeping everyone fighting each other and blaming each other for the countries woes in a cornerstone of their plans. The resulting mess allows them to pass tougher laws and rules for EVERYONE to follow, especially banning guns, which is required to fulfill their other plans.

    The fact Europe was NOT ASKED if they wanted this should be extremely alarming. Most of the “anti establishment” parties are ALSO CONTROLLED……years often go by before people figure it out that they have been jew screwed yet again. Ask GREECE!

    Ethnic cleansing of white people on a global scale is the ultimate goal, like I said because white people have been the ones who know about the jew and their tricks. Many blacks and asians don’t have any real knowledge other that blame “whitey”.

    If people don’t wake the hell up soon, it’s going to be way too late, in fact it already could be.

  32. The bloodsucking elites get their money back in the form of tax credits and write offs. Among other things to be sure.

    • Replies: @PJ London
  33. Mass immigration was never about economics; it was always about white genocide.

    Why do you think that jews and jewish lobbies wrote and passed The Immigration Act of 1965?
    The legislation ended white immigration to bring in a flood of non-whites. If the law was passed simply to obtain labor, then why exclude whites to replace whites with non-whites?

    The goal was always the ethnic cleansing of white people from their ancestral homelands….and it was motivated by the atavistic jewish hatred of whites.

    The other goal was to import leftist voters to disenfranchise whites.

    This is obvious stuff.

    There was never any economic need for the invaders.

    People think that jews are money hungry…..but they don’t understand that jews use money as a form of control.
    Like the dipshits on this site braying about how smart Blackrock is to buy every house in America… if Blackrock gives a flying fuck about profit. The goal isn’t profit. The goal is CONTROL.

    Goy control. They will make it so that our people cannot afford to buy a home. Now imagine what they can do with this. First of all, like with banks canceling people…..if you say or do the wrong thing your jew landlord can kick your ass out into the street.

    AND….the lack of housing will surely reduce our birthrates even more, and they are already in the toilet.

    Anything to fuck white people.

    Organized jewry stays up all night inventing new ways to fuck white people.

    People who don’t own homes don’t have any pride in their community. Home ownership is one of the pillars of a stable society….and the jews KNOW THIS.

    You will own nothing and be happy sayeth the nose.

    In reality…you will own nothing….eat bugs…..and drink yourself to death at age 27.

    • Agree: HT, CelestiaQuesta, Rurik
    • Troll: Sarah
    • Replies: @DrWatson
  34. Mass immigration was never about economics; it was always about white genocide.

  35. @anon

    Actually japans real gdp has been declining yoy. Nominal means crap when japs had a better standard of living 30 years ago.

  36. @dearieme

    Immigration in America in recent decades has one purpose and that is to destroy Western Civilization and White People. The Jews are pushers of this debacle. It has nothing to do with helping people or any damn thing else. It’s nothing more than “Social Camouflage” as a disguise to claim we are racist if we don’t wish to be overrun. The whores like Obama and his wife boldly say it right to our faces and no one in the media or society for the most part goes after them.

    The Dutch Report is even worse than it looks because of scale and the total lunacy of Jewish owned media in this country with their 24 hour indoctrination and the guilt narrative of whites. Add the Blacks, some Hispanics and Latinos, and of course what’s left our Indigenous Geniuses and you have the collapse of Western Civilization. All of these clowns think they can build a better civilization. Of course, they never have and “just imagine” is the mental masturbation of these suicidal maniacs. I love when the Latin Americans and Hispanics claim the Aztecs, Incas and Mayans were so great….if you like living in Snake and Blood Cult slavery. Did you ever notice they never mention the slavery part (a thousand years or more) and ours was a couple hundred and it’s all they talk about every minute of the day.

    Western Civilization is done. You might as well prepare now because this isn’t going to end well.

    • Agree: Polistra, TKK
    • Thanks: Irish Savant
    • Replies: @Realist
    , @Anon
    , @johnnyuinta
  37. GMC says:

    If you are going to tell me that those Zionist politicians , lobbyists and Jews in NY in 1965, didn’t understand what they were doing – when they pushed President Huckleberry Johnson to pass the Open, Unlimited, Unvetted Immigration law – you’re Nuts. Prior to those suicide set of laws, we had 80% of immigration from white European countries, and afterwards – we had less that 8% coming from Europe. Our limit of successful applicants stood at 700,000 a year which means = Today we would have 250 million maximum and a 70% white European base – Period.
    Those Fuckers knew exactly what they were doing and their successors today , still have the same Anti- American immigration plan in action. The list of treasonists in the USA is so large, one can’t even count them all.

    • Replies: @RadicalCenter
  38. bispora says:

    Dear James,

    You do find at least one more fiscal analysis on immigrants on national level- Samuli Salminen: Immigrations and Public Finances in Finland

    Some findings are more shocking then the Dutch one:
    “According to the results shown in Table 1, the average (expected value) of life cycle effects for immigrants born in Somalia is -951,000 euros per person, while excluding the life cycle effects of immigrants’ children. On the other hand, the average is -1,343,000 euros when children’s effects are included.”

    • Replies: @James Thompson
    , @res
  39. Immigrants carry their ecosystem in their minds, and then build it in their new land. This is undeniable. Even those who flee what they call oppression in their native land also carry a part of the same “oppressive” social system with them. And they bring up their children on myths about their motherland; a child rarely asks, “If your motherland is such a land of milk and honey, why did you migrate here?”

    • Replies: @anon
  40. Ridiculous and sad to put hope in rational argument at a time when Western governments are not even trying to protect the interests of their own citizens.

    • Agree: Bro43rd, HbutnotG
  41. LondonBob says:

    I am still unconvinced these studies fully take in to account the costs incurred in upgrading and expanding infrastructure. I suppose one could look at the amount spent on infrastructure, including that put off the books by PFI, and compare that to population growth since the second world war. Merely maintain existing infrastructure would be, I expect, a lot less expensive.

    An interesting dynamic watching the Johnson government is the role of property developers, often Jewish, and their incessant lobbying for more immigration. The increasing role of an Indian lobby is also alarming.

  42. @anon

    I always fail to understand this logic; increasing a population is not rocket science; it is such a simple thing the poorest people in the poorest countries are doing it faster. If those living in Japan do not want to marry and raise a family, opening it to immigration is not the solution. Rather the right question is “What factors prevent our youth from marrying and raising a family?”. And the simplest answer is, “Laws that made divorce easy, cheap and damaging to the man; laws that tax a man in his most fruitful years; “entertainment” that poisons kids’ minds about normal sex life and glorifies kinks and perversions; “education” that denigrates the importance of family and extended family”.

    • Agree: Sarah, The Anti-Gnostic
    • Replies: @anon
  43. Fantastic article. It allows me to wonder what policy made imgration possible, now that suggestions are made to “change” it. Of course the same applies to the policy of diversity – which the World Bank initiated

  44. PJ London says:

    Great logic.
    The Rich taxpayers get their money back by not having to pay more tax!

  45. DrWatson says:

    Brilliant comment 🙂

  46. Anon[287] • Disclaimer says:

    Pure stupidity to allow Darkies to enter Europe.

    • Replies: @Anonymous
    , @anon
  47. PJ London says:

    One thing that these numbers prove is that if a country wants to seriously boost its’ wealth, they should immediately set up a scheme to pay (handsomely) any and all whites from Southern Africa (RSA) and grab them asap.
    One million whites would increase the country’s wealth by about 150 billion Euro in the first generation and even more in later generations.
    Australia would be a good source, but the Aussies are not in any hurry to move whereas RSA …..

    An interesting factoid.
    In the mid 70s, a professor (I actually had the honour of being a student at some of his lectures) and his wife were brutally shotgunned in their house in Pretoria. The killers were identified as two E Europeans who had flown in hours before the killings and flown out again in a private jet before the bodies were even discovered.
    The reason was written in his blood on the wall by Professor Smit before he died.
    “RAU TEMA”.
    Some weeks before he had presented a lecture at the Rand Afrikaans University where his theme (Afrikaans tema) was that to solve SA’s problems they should get several million Eastern European (East German, Polish and Hungarian) and pay whatever it cost to bring them to South Africa. Remember this was at the height of the USSR.
    He had just returned from the airport after a meeting (ostensibly in Switzerland but reported to have been in Austria) and the night of his return he was murdered.

    • Replies: @Peter Lund
  48. DrWatson says:
    @Robert Dolan

    Isn’t there a way to prevent Blackrock from buying up property? Like Biden and co making laws that would prevent this, or breaking up the company or giving priority to home owners’ buying or helping the latter with government loans?

    This sounds quite horrible. A relative of mine just escaped from the US. He sold all his property (apparently, he had some) and is settling down in Budapest. Ironically, his parents escaped Hungary in 1956 as having played a role in the revolution they were on the blacklist of the Soviets. Needless to say the family was heavily rightwing so my uncle moving back to Hungary means one more vote for Fidesz (he has Hungarian citizenship). It seems you can’t escape the Commies for an entire lifetime.

  49. The trouble with economic arguments is that opinions, perspectives and interpretations vary. Triggered commenters have even written articles to TUR denouncing economists as charlatans.

    Studies often omit social costs like highly infectious multi-drug resistant tuberculosis (MDR-TB) imported from third world countries which turned London into the TB capital of Western Europe. In 2014 the treatment per patient was £50,000-£100,000. Most tourists don’t even know about this hazard.

    The issue is simple. If democracy exists immigration should be put to a direct vote.

  50. Adrian says:

    Here is a wide ranging study of the Centre for Applied Socioal Research at the University of New England in Australia. Since this is largely about planned migration rather than a process gone through in”a fit of absence of mind” the results have apparently been far more positive than is the case in the Netherlands.…


    Australia is one of the most multicultural countries in the world. Statistics indicate that around one quarter of the Australian population were born overseas and almost half (around 40%) have at least one parent born overseas. This is the broad context that frames the importance of comprehending the scale and nature of the social costs and benefits of migration into Australia. Using the four capitals framework for measuring Australia’s progress, this study has synthesised a vast amount of evidence relevant to the topic. It has consolidated material from 49 different data sets and a large volume of existing although disparate research. Furthermore, original empirical material has been gathered through four community studies, two in regional Australia and two in metropolitan cities on the East Coast of the continent.

    The main conclusion to be drawn from this study is that the social benefits of migration far outweigh the costs, especially in the longer term. The evidence that is available overwhelmingly supports the view that migrants to Australia have made and continue to make substantial contributions to Australia’s stock of human, social and produced capital.

    Most migrants have come to Australia to work, produce, and fill skills shortages. In addition, migrants are generally healthier than the resident population providing a further boost to human capital stocks. The migrant presence has also substantially increased the range and viability of available recreational and cultural activities for all Australians. Australia is characterised by relatively high levels of inter-marriage between migrants and the Australia-born, and this fact alone is evidence of the success of migration outcomes. These factors encourage most migrants to embrace Australian society, its political and cultural norms and to participate in various aspects of community life.

  51. Mike Tre says:

    ” labour shortages,”

    This was always a lie.

  52. gotmituns says:

    Years ago, when Ellis Island was working in NY harbor, many people were rejected/deported for reasons of health (mostly TB), retardation, criminality, morality/prostitution, etc. That was then when we had standards. Lastly, we had wiped out TB in America but now that we’ve gotten rid of all standards, we have TB again.

  53. @Priss Factor

    “If people direct their outrage at ‘gays’ and trannies, Jews themselves get less abuse.”

    Jews contribute more than their fair share to the homosexual population.

  54. Okaaay….but, read my lips: I don’t give a hoot about welfare. Even if an alien brings in a billion bucks, I’d boot him because he doesn’t belong to my tribe.

    And, as a collective loyalty, the tribal nation is the only thing that matters. A nation is the extended family.

    • Agree: Z-man, Rurik
  55. Realist says:

    Our Japanese friends might wonder why on earth we tried the experiment when the results were so predictable.

    That is also true of our Chinese friends.

  56. Realist says:

    Immigration in America in recent decades has one purpose and that is to destroy Western Civilization and White People.

    Its purpose is to destroy anyone, not in the elite class.

    The Jews are pushers of this debacle. It has nothing to do with helping people or any damn thing else.

    You are blaming two percent for controlling ninety-eight percent.

    It’s nothing more than “Social Camouflage” as a disguise to claim we are racist if we don’t wish to be overrun. The whores like Obama and his wife boldly say it right to our faces and no one in the media or society for the most part goes after them.

    Immigration and CRT are being used as wedge issues by the elite, regardless of race or ethnicity.

  57. Anon[108] • Disclaimer says:

    If the Jews are pushers of this debacle, was the anti-Christ correct when he said, “Salvation is not from the Jews,” in opposition to Rabbi Jesus’ claim of the opposite?

    • Replies: @RadicalCenter
  58. Anonymous[385] • Disclaimer says:

    Many Western countries began immigration policies without feeling any need to monitor the long-term results. Indeed, many considered that immigration was an expedient response to labour shortages, and that the labourers, such as Turkish guest-workers in Germany, would probably eventually want to return home with their earnings at retirement.

    That’s the official excuse (along with vibrancy and recipes), which Thompson seems to be swallowing hook, line and sinker. In his world, the Great Replacement is just an altruistic miscalculation.

    I’d be embarrassed to write something this naive in 2021.

    • Agree: Irish Savant
  59. Anonymous[253] • Disclaimer says:

    More stupid are those Eastern European countries who’ve seen the evisceration of traditional Christian culture in Western Europe— supplanted with Globohomo values— yet nonetheless are anxious to become cheap little whores vassal states of the AngloZionist Empire. The U.S. now has military bases and military members in Poland. This is permanent whether the Poles realize it or not. They also don’t realize they will eventually have to accept things which undermine their Christian faith and values.


    Lol, the dumb Polacks think these U.S. military bases are joint U.S.-Poland 🤣

    Weird how the ‘Pride March’ banner is in English 🤔

    University of Warsaw (again, weird how signs are in English 🧐)


    • Replies: @Anonymous
  60. TG says:

    Yes, well said – but just to be clear, California is NOT in a dry spell. The long-term trend in precipitation has remained constant.

    The deal is that rainfall in California has always been erratic, that hasn’t changed either. In the past there would be a couple of wet years, and a couple of dry years – and the dry years were limiting, that’s why the historical population of California was so low. But by having dams and reservoirs, you could spread out the rainfall, and have a more consistent water supply.

    The problem now is that forced population growth has meant that the reservoirs can’t hold enough during the wet spells to last through the dry ones. With a smaller population – what the system was designed for – there would be no ‘drought’.

    Constant rainfall, more and more people, water running short – every article blaming water shortages in California on ‘climate change’ is a lie, plain and simple.

    • Agree: Katrinka
    • Replies: @pindos
    , @RadicalCenter
  61. SIMP simp says:

    Jason Richwine wrote a pretty similar report a decade ago about immigration to US and got booted from the Heritage Foundation for it.

  62. anon[925] • Disclaimer says:
    @Old Brown Fool

    Sure, in principle I agree with you, but what should they do *right now* given that their country is under US military occupation, much of the population uses foreign-controlled social media, and the government is a multi-party democracy (albeit with one dominant party).

  63. anon[227] • Disclaimer says:

    “Immigrants are net contributors”.

    This author and his economist gophers need to visit the welfare office where he lives and tell us how many white faces he sees in the ranks. On second thoughts I will save him the trouble and provide the answer . Very few !.

    Like you I am confident that the darkies in Europe are productive citizens though productive in what is another matter. The fact is these “dark” areas have the highest rate of every social problem including unemployment. Ditto the USA.

    What is an expert goatherder from the Sudan who can neither read nor write in his own language do in Europe ? What about the Afghan whose lofty profession back in Kabul was selling videos from a cart on some bomb blasted street?

    The US is in the same boat heading at top speed for the nearest iceberg. Immigrants are net contributors Bro. That is what the economists can prove with their stats.

    Being the gullible type I believe them just as I believed Fauci. I know these guys never lie, massage the facts or tell half truths.

  64. Leo Den says:

    Oh, please. If it wasn’t for immigration, certain countries would have big segments of their economy shut down.

    How the immigration pot is stirred.

  65. onebornfree says: • Website

    “Downsizing the welfare state and/or curtailment of immigration will then be inevitable.”

    No, downsizing will not work, it only provides the short-term illusion of working [which of course benefits the government in the short term and makes it look good].

    Government -run welfare and immigration, no different from anything else the government sticks its big fat nose into, is a scam, and always was/is bound to fail.

    FACT: Government “solutions” for ANYTHING, NEVER work -they always make any perceived “problem” even worse than it already was [assuming the problem really even existed in the first place].

    “Government doesn’t work”  Harry Browne

    Get government entirely out of all immigration, and all welfare [for individuals, corporations, and foreign governments, eg Israel].

    “Everything government touches turns to crap” Ringo Starr

    “The kind of man who wants the government to adopt and enforce his ideas is always the kind of man whose ideas are idiotic” H.L.Mencken

    “Government  is a disease masquerading as its own cure”  Robert LeFevere

    Regards, onebornfree

  66. HT says:

    The only cost to immigration that really matters at this point is the cost of losing your country, civilization, and sovereignty. Immigration in America will ultimately bring socialism and a quasi third world country as whites are replaced by non-whites.

  67. @dearieme

    Our Japanese friends might wonder why on earth we tried the experiment when the results were so predictable.

    I got the impression, the immigration policy in Germany was never meant as an experiment, but as a necessity. Something that needs to be done. – And then turned into a success. Not least for – humanitarian reasons.
    Should this process fail, it would once again prove the moral unworthiness of – sigh: Us Germans.
    (In other words: Germans would not even be ready to admit that there is an experiment going on here).

    Anecdote: The German communal banks are something not bad and special. So – a Korean delegation came to visit and have a look at it. After a few days of meet and inform and greet etc., a Korean asked the representatives of the Volksbanken/Raffeisenbanken why we chose to have open borders. The answer was: There is no choice here. It is a humanitarian necessity.

  68. HT says:

    There was a guy about 75 years ago who knew exactly how to deal with culture destroying Marxists like Larry Fink and the other commies at Blackrock.

  69. It is not immigration, it is an exodus caused by the destruction of native communities around the world by white barbarians to steal everything that has any value, now the peoples are going after what is stolen, towards the north developed by dispossession, pain and death in the south?

  70. Furthermore, the authors find a strong relationship between education and net lifetime contribution to the Dutch treasury. A higher level of education on average implies a higher net contribution.

    The problem is that the Dutch education system is based on racial segregation. The founders of Apartheid in South Africa have two separate schools for whites and non-whites ( aka Zwarte Scholen ) in the Netherlands. Teachers most of the time discourage talented students of migrant background from pursuing higher education by giving them negative advice. The Dutch tend to focus on groups rather than individuals. So tells me the wife of my brother who is Dutch.

    • Thanks: IronForge
    • Replies: @threestars
  71. @ruralguy

    Advice to the Dutch Boys: Knock off the welcoming of terrorists, misfits and rejects. Such a small country should encourage those losers to leave by cutting off their benefits. The only immigrants from Africa that should be allowed in should have last names like Coetzee and Van der Merwe.

  72. A POEM – by Archibald McCuck

    Israel for Jews. Yes!
    Africa for blacks. Yes!
    Mideast for Muslims. Yes!
    America for whites. No, nix, nah, nah, nah!

  73. @Danesovan

    “South Americans” may very well include a significant number of highly specialized whites coming to work for many times the salaries they get back home.

    A similar thing happens to Italian engineers. An unbelievably high proportion of them moves to the NW for a relatively low increase in pay of just x2.

  74. @Charles Martel France

    I’m pretty sure that’s not official policy. Your brother’s Dutch wife may refer to schools for children who need remedial Dutch courses, students who would otherwise bring the whole class down. I can see how these might be colloquially referred to as “black schools”; especially by left-wingers who can’t stomach the notion of normal people not being punished for the benefit of the dysfunctional and needy. (your sister-in-law sounds like quite the piece of work, pffft)

    • Replies: @Charles Martel France
  75. Anonymous[352] • Disclaimer says:

    If the example of Germany is anything to go by, the mass presence of American GIs on Polish soil will lead to an awfully high number of single mothers of mixed race babies in the future.

    Perhaps the Poles think that this is a price worth paying …….

  76. Anonymous[352] • Disclaimer says:
    @Liborio Guaso

    Absolute fucking rubbish.

    The only “wealth” in the world is human hard work, talent, ingenuity and enterprise.

    In case you didn’t know, one cannot eat diamonds, gold, elephant tusks etc.

    The Singaporeans – who were colonised – live on a crowded island bereft of natural resources, yet are the the richest people in the world.

    You kicked out the white man 60 or 70 years ago.

    What’s your fucking excuse?

  77. @bispora

    Thank you for this useful reference. You are the second person to tell me that there has been detailed work in the Nordic countries, and I will try to catch up with that shortly. Naturally, I want to see if there is other work in the rest of Europe, and in the Americas.

    • Replies: @Anonymous
    , @Adrian
  78. botazefa says:

    Can we agree that “diversity is our strength” is flimflam self-serving mumbo jumbo?

    Diversity seems like a proven destabilizer. This good summary of the study makes it clear that diversity is the polar opposite of a ‘strength.’ I can’t think if any historical civilization that has experienced diversity otherwise. Someone more well read please correct me if I’m wrong.

    • Replies: @anon
  79. @Anonymous

    The appearrance of incompetence is just that.
    In truth, govt knows exactly what they are doing: it is attrition and replacement.

    • Replies: @Charon
  80. @DrWatson

    Biden is a Zionist. He has stated this repeatedly. The real meaning is that he is a traitor to his country.
    In all honesty, Biden is like Obama, a man who can read a teleprompter.
    The majority of Trumps’ cabinet were jews as is Bidens.
    America is ruled by jews and, as such, the real estate is being bought up with public fed money to turn the U.S. into renters. This was done in 2001 Argentina by a corrupt elite who hyperinflated the peso and bought everyone out.
    America is going to be raped of every last penny by jews who are citizens but hate Europeans and whites. Only, it seems, will the middle class react when their homes are taken away. Until then they continue to live in a fools paradise.

    • Agree: Robert Dolan, Katrinka
  81. res says:

    Thanks very much for that. I somehow missed seeing your comment until Dr. Thompson replied. Do you know more about this work? It seems worthwhile to note this.

    Native Finnish-born persons are used as reference group with the mean prediction of zero euros.

    Since presumably the native Finns are net positive I don’t think it is right to take those numbers as the cost of the immigrants. But I don’t know the size of the impact this would have on the numbers.

    In case it is not obvious, the number I am interested in is “the lifetime cost of the average immigrant to the Finnish taxpayers.”

    That’s the positive. On the negative side.

    The life cycle effects for the native Finnish-born population include fiscal expenditures accumulated during the ages of 0 to 19 years old. These expenditures are not included in the above-mentioned life cycle effects predictions for those born in Iraq and Somalia since the results here are shown for those who have migrated to Finland between the ages of 20 and 24 years old.

    Given the expense of raising a Finn from 0 to 19 the productivity of those immigrants is even worse than it seems at first glance.

    Also worth noting that they appear to have used NPV (Net Present Value) for the calculations.

    Conclusion from life cycle effects predictions discounted to the present value:
    No New Iraqi- and Somalian-Born Immigrants Should Be Allowed to Immigrate to Finland from the Standpoint of Finnish Public Finances.

  82. Labor shortage my ass.

    Jews pushed abortion to kill the white birthrate.

    Then Paul Ehrlich went on every talk show to convince white people to stop having children due to the “Population Bomb” and limited resources.

    Then Celler and Javitz wrote the legislation for opening our borders.

    There was never a “labor shortage.”

    There was/is a socially engineered plan to deliberately curb the white birthrate while flooding the west with non-whites. This is GENOCIDE.

    Sixty MILLION babies have been aborted…..and we have at least 30 MILLION unskilled marxist mexicans in America.

    Mark Potok has a countdown on his office wall to gloat about whites becoming a minority.

    Tim Wise gloats that whites are going into the dustbin of history.

    Paul Krugman, a vicious asshole, gloats that whites are angry they are being disempowered, and he’s ecstatic that it’s happening.

    Susan Sontag called whites a cancer on the face of the earth.

    Noel Ignatiev said that whites had to be eradicated.

    I could go on and on regarding how much our fellow whites love white people.

    • Agree: Alden
    • Thanks: Katrinka
  83. @Leo Den

    The market would adjust. That is, lower paying jobs would see a rise in pay.
    But god forbid rich jews should have less money right?

    • Replies: @Leo Den
  84. CanSpeccy says: • Website

    Immigrants with a net positive contribution to the public fisc will also drive a decline in the indigenous TFR unless their numbers, quality, and geographic distribution are such that they gentrify less desirable neighborhoods or create new, desirable, and affordable middle-class ones to a greater extent than they price indigenous citizens out of middle-class neighborhoods and affordable family formation.

    Forget the ifs and buts.

    Immigrants drive down the TFR of the native population, period.

    They do so by driving down wages and driving up not only housing costs, but taxes — taxes required to pay for all the new schools, maternity hospitals, roads, sewage plants and all the rest that the millions of immigrants require.

    Mass immigration reflects the contempt of the elite for the common people, the hatred of the rich for the poor, the genocidal desire of the upper classes to replace white yahoos with more respectful immigrants acculturated in the home of their birth to undemocratic and exploitive forms of government, and not least, the enormous profits to be gained from property development, which is to say the construction of ticky tacky houses on good farm land, which is contingent on massive increases in population density.

    The mass of the British people have for decades been against mass immigration as shown repeatedly in opinion surveys. Hence the endless antiracism bullying, i.e., the condemnation of any who might say that Britain is the already very crowded homeland of the British people, not a new land for occupation by hoards of emmigrants from Asia and Africa.

    • Agree: TKK
  85. The sooner we remove career incentives, legal and security protection for politicians both public and private, remove their authority to make laws, legislation, resolutions, acts, amendments without extensive public debates, there will never be any change to the current corrupt system of government now playing out throughout the lands.
    When a President can be censored by technopolies, we have no bill of rights.
    When a President and his DOJ/FBI declare 75+ million whites “white Supremacists” and “domestic terrorists, and the greatest threat in America”, we are no longer a nation under constitutional rule.
    Are we going to sit idle while they roundup January 6th unarmed patriots by accusing them of being part of a “armed insurrection”?
    Let’s show them what a real armed insurrection looks like.
    Anyone home?????

    • Agree: TKK
    • Replies: @Katrinka
  86. anon[402] • Disclaimer says:
    @Old Brown Fool

    Immigrants carry their ecosystem in their minds genes, and then build it in their new land.


  87. @threestars

    I’m pretty sure that’s not official policy.

    It is official policy in the sense that it is tolerated and attempts to desegregate the school system have been met with fierce opposition from the public ( whites ) and political parties who are afraid of being accused of violating the school choice right of ( white) parents.

    James Coomarasamy of BBC have been to Holland to investigate the situation and was shocked to find out that ” Zwarte Scholen ” was an accepted phenomenon in the nominally liberal Dutch society.

    • Replies: @Bombercommand
  88. bayviking says:

    The US war in the middle East and North Africa have created an immigration crisis of staggering proportions on the European and Scandinavian communities, many who never supported those wars. Similarly US interference in the ownership of land, oil and other resources South of our border by criminal military force and criminal lending practices have forced millions of people to immigrate or die. Just one example, Clinton’s “Free Trade Agreement” with Mexico caused 5 million Mexican corn farmers to go broke and many of those immigrated to the United States.

    The most effective way to reduce immigration is to quit invading other countries, quit installing governments their people do not like and quit imposing dollar indebtedness on those same countries in order to render the debts un-payable and demand control of their land and resources.

    When Social Security in the US was initiated there was no multi-trillion dollar savings fund to operate with. When the US working population begins to decline, as in Europe and Scandinavia, immigration is one way to support a larger aging population. In the US this is especially beneficial for citizens because working non-citizens with fraudulent ID can never regain their FICA or Medicare contributions.

    But there other ways to easily fix the problem. First you can impose a far more progressive system of taxation. Secondly we have seen that the Federal Reserve has a nearly unlimited ability to generate dollars and can do so to pay any bill. Whether the Treasury Department or Federal Reserve should exercise this power is an important but irrelevant question regarding whether the Federal Government must pay its Social Security obligations. It must and there is actually no need for the trust fund, which is an invention to placate those who are against Social Security entirely.

    Section Four of the 14th Amendment to the Constitution of the United States says that “the validity of the public debt of the United States, authorized by law, including debts incurred for payment of pensions and bounties for services in suppressing insurrection or rebellion, shall not be questioned.”

    So far this fiscal year (through July 11), for example, the federal government has brought in $1.647687 trillion in tax revenue, while needing to pay out $150.837 billion in interest on the debt.

    But, Conservatives question the ability of the Federal Government to pay, unless they are the recipients of the semi-rFed’s largess. That is what we have witnessed for the last decade as criminal bankers have enjoyed first a $17 trillion bailout in the midst of a $14.5 trillion dollar economy, followed by Quantitative Easing every month since . Fogetabout the $600 billion Congressional cover story, which only served to line the pockets of criminal bankers by making it easy to be paid back behind the Fed bailout. Paying the $600 billion back triggered massive bonuses for the criminal bankers.

    In theory the Fed is accountable to Congress. But Congress is far too cowardly to ever exercise their power over the Fed, which makes them a very expensive private producer of money, which can never compete with the Central bank of China. The point is there is no balanced budget crisis and there has never been any need for a balanced budget except to make sure free money for nothing is only handed out to the ruling class.

  89. CanSpeccy says: • Website

    In other words: Germans would not even be ready to admit that there is an experiment going on here.

    It’s not an experiment, it’s an operation, cf:

    Practical Idealism: The Kalergi Plan to destroy European peoples Paperback – Jan. 14 2019

  90. anon[402] • Disclaimer says:

    Can we agree that “diversity is our strength” is flimflam self-serving mumbo jumbo?

    Last week I saw a sticker on a car, next to the “Coexist” sticker.

    “Diversity is stability”.

    Perhaps that is the next propaganda slogan we can expect, since it is becoming ever more obvious that “diversity” is weakness, fragmentation, endless friction, etc.

    Diversity seems like a proven destabilizer.


  91. The main reason for low fertility rates is not economic, it is moral. Rich or poor, hardly anyone wants to have many kids anymore….as usual, E. Michael Jones nails it, e.g., p. 182 of “Degenerate Moderns” (the West has converted to Gnosticism and is not Christian anymore). Note especially the second to last sentence in this quote:

    “The result was that Jung converted to Gnosticism, according to which, in Grisez’s words, ‘the real self is identified with one’s spiritual life, and a new value is placed on individual subjectivity and religious experience. Community now becomes a source of experiences to be enjoyed by individuals rather than a reality to be faithfully maintained and built up by its members. The bodily self is extruded, alienated, regarded as a mere object and instrument’.”

    In fact, all of our problems are moral.

    • Replies: @bayviking
  92. anon[391] • Disclaimer says:
    @Leo Den

    If it wasn’t for immigration, certain countries would have big segments of their economy shut down.

    Name the countries and the economic segments. Be aware that pickpocketing, robbery, burglary, prostitution, molestation of children, rape of women, smuggling of illegal drugs, etc. are not economic “segments” of any value. Just the opposite, in fact.

    So…”crops rotting in the fields”, and what else have you got?

    • Replies: @Leo Den
  93. BorisMay says:

    Immigration in the UK is a scam used by government to enrich the already wealthy. The rich house immigrants and are paid excessive rents from the public purse via the government. It is quite simply a scam.

    It will be the same in Holland and the rest of Europe.

    There is an added benefit for the rich that immigrants swamp the labour market lowering wages to survival level. In a business labour costs are the biggest overhead so swamping the labour market with excess and useless immigrant labour increases profits.

    A secondary benefit is that immigrants are a divide and conquer ploy. They divide the indigenous population into pro immigration (the useful idiots who will do anything to destroy their nation), and racial nationalists who religiously attack the pro immigrant useful idiots.

    There is only a financial benefit for the stinking psychopathic rich. Everyone else loses just about everything from immigration.

    Unemployment, poverty and homelessness is caused by usury, but modern day economists have neither the brains nor the balls to state this fact. Economists are just another bunch of useful idiots.

    • Replies: @onebornfree
  94. For interest, contrast, nostalgia etc
    Amsterdam 1922

    • Replies: @Adrian
  95. Anonymous[578] • Disclaimer says:
    @James Thompson

    I seem to remember a study from Norway, a few years ago now, with the same stark conclusion.
    A highlighted prediction was that mass immigration would bankrupt the much vaunted and prodigious Norwegian Sovereign Wealth Fund.

    • Replies: @James Thompson
    , @res
  96. Even the stupidest of people can understand a Ponzi scheme when the facts are laid before them.

    This is why the pyramid scheme nature of Western immigration policy is wiped from the discussion. No rational analysis is permitted, only emotional arguments.

    It’s a sleazy con job.

  97. babu says:

    The dark skinned Asians must continue to struggle for the recognition of their victimhood in the US and Western Europe. They are deserving of monetary compensation similar to the yellow skinned Asians. The Jews and Blacks have had their victimhood recognized in the US and Europe. The Jews have also received compensation and anti defamation protection.

  98. Malla says:
    @Liborio Guaso

    Destruction? Or creation? the West lost money on many of its colonies. Brought modern civilization and were in many cases better rulers than what was before them.

    • Replies: @Adrian
  99. bayviking says:
    @Johnny Johnny

    There are TWO issue in politics, morality and money. Any legitimate morality would be one in which, as stated in the Declaration of Independence, “We are all created equal”, for the sake of clarity we should add, in the eyes of the law. We know that isn’t true, just by looking at the difference between the way native Indians and Asians were treated compared to migrant Europeans. But it remains a solid moral position.

    You completely forgot the second important issue, “who gets the money from the value added by labor and why?” Most money in this country accrues immorally to passive investors, not the hard working labor class.

  100. TKK says:

    Take a moment to comprehend the malignant narcissism of Joe Biden – who summed up America’s immigration catastrophe, not with skilled, data crunching analysis as above, but they come here because –

    They know I am a good guy.”

    Biden faced multiple questions about the border debacle at his first formal White House press conference, including about migrants who are telling reporters they were motivated to illegally enter the US because of the perception Biden would welcome them.

    “Well look, I guess I should be flattered if people are coming because I’m the nice guy — that’s the reason why it’s happening — that I’m a decent man, or however it’s phrased, that’s why they are coming, because they know Biden’s a good guy.”

    The insanity Americans are expected to swallow and keep paying taxes is intolerable.

  101. @Anonymous

    At the moment I am reading a Finnish study (see above) but welcome other references.

    • Replies: @bispora
  102. geokat62 says:

    Many Western countries began immigration policies without feeling any need to monitor the long-term results. Indeed, many considered that immigration was an expedient response to labour shortages, and that the labourers…

    Nick Griffin exposes the Kalergi Plan:
    Nick Griffin Blasts EU Over European Genocide

    EU Plan for White Genocide:

    Excerpt from, Grand Deceptions – Chapter 12: Jewish Supremacy and the Multicultural Experiment:

    The Kalergi Plan and White Genocide

    In early 2014, British National Party (BNP) leader Nick Griffin made a bold statement in the meeting hall of the European Parliament. Griffin forthrightly identified the machinations of a “human genetic-modification industry” whose policies will result in the “ethnocide of the peoples of Europe.” The encouragement of “mass non-White immigration” was “central to the plot,” Griffin declared in front of his European Union colleagues. He specifically named an elite cabal of “leftists, capitalists and Zionist supremacists” as the architects of White genocide in Europe, who constantly invent new pretexts to actualize their globalist blueprint. Griffin elaborated that these globalist schemers endeavored to:

    promote immigration and miscegenation with the deliberate aim of breeding us out of existence in our homelands. As indigenous resistance to this human genetic-modification industry grows, the criminal elite seeks new ways to camouflage their project. First, their immigrant pawns were temporary guest workers; then it was a multiracial experiment; then they were refugees, and then the answer to a shrinking population. Different excuses, different lies – and asylum is just another one. But the real aim stays the same: the biggest genocide in human history, the final solution to the Christian European problem. This crime demands a new set of Nuremberg trials, and you people will be in the dock.

    Griffin then traced the origins of the conspiracy of White genocide to Count Richard von Coudenhove-Kalergi, the founding ideologue behind European integration and thus the European Union itself. Kalergi, the product of an Austrian diplomat father and Japanese mother, was born in Austro-Hungary in 1894 and is credited as the founding father of the Pan-Europa movement which “strove to replace the nationalist German ideal of racial community with the goal of an ethnically heterogeneous and inclusive European nation based on a commonality of culture.” Kalergi headed the Pan-Europa movement for 49 years and authored its seminal founding text, Pan-Europa, in 1923.

    • Thanks: Katrinka, Sarah
  103. Malla says:

    Check out these descriptions of Europe from the past. How awesome it was.! All destroyed by mass immigration of alien infiltrators and Cultural destruction via Cultural Marxism or Judeo influence.

    Indian Visitor Describes England and European Life in 1785 from ‘Wonders of Vilayet’ Primary Source.
    This extract has been taken from the wonderful book: ‘The Wonders of Vilayet: Being the Memoir, Originally in Persian, of a Visit to France and Britain in 1765’ by Indian Muslim nobleman, Mirza Sheikh I’tesamuddin of Bengal, India and translated by Kaiser Haq.
    Interesting point, the term ‘Vilayat’ means foreign lands in Indian languages comes from ‘vilaya’ which comes from Arabic or Persian meaning province and as the Islamic invaders ruled India, for Indians it first came to mean foreign (initially the Middle East where the Islamic foreign conquerors came from) but later it meant all foreign lands while now a days (mostly now a days used for first world countries of Europe, USA, Canada, Australia as well as Japan etc..) . Hence ‘Vilaiti’ means something from outside India or foreign which leads to the English term ‘Blighty’ as Europeans were called foreigners or ‘Vilaiti’ by Indians.

    Persian Emperor Describes European Life in 1873 from Incredible Journey of Naser Al-Din
    Extracts from “Diary of H.M. the Shah of Persia during his tour through Europe in A.D. 1873. This Shah of Persia was of the earlier Qajar Dynasty which was the dynasty before the last dynasty, the Pahlavi.

    Japanese on Rome: Incredible Story of the Tensho Embassy (1582 – 1590)

    • Thanks: Sarah, Robin Hood
    • Replies: @RJ Macready
  104. @Charles Martel France

    First you say this is something you heard from your “brother’s wife who is Dutch”, now you cite an anti-White clown from the anti-White BBC who thinks it is his business to “investigate the situation” and he is “shocked”. You appear unusually attached to something you dont have any direct knowledge of, and is none of your business. I smell a bullshitter, and it’s you Shlomo. It is nauseating that a Shlomo takes your username. Karl Martel of The Franke would give you a taste of what he gave the muzzies, and you deserve it.

  105. onebornfree says: • Website

    “Immigration in the UK is a scam used by government to enrich the already wealthy. The rich house immigrants and are paid excessive rents from the public purse via the government. It is quite simply a scam.”

    “The state has typically been a device for producing affluence for a few at the expense of many.” Murray Rothbard

    Regards, onebornfree

  106. @dearieme

    They also might wonder how come it still changes nothing even when we know the truth.

  107. hillaire says:

    Thompson presumes that immigration is a tool of economics, and perhaps it is… you yanks imported enough ‘nazis’ after world war 2…

    but that was beneficial to both parties… even though your moon landings ended up being fake propaganda..

    the problem thompson has, and I am as yet undecided as to whether it is mendacity or indeed imbecility.. is that there is no rational need to import third world criminal mendicants by the ‘million’ who are often even illiterate in their own language, whilst making immigration by more useful ‘individuals’ incredibly difficult….

    that is unless you plan on destroying the country you once ‘had’ (which it is), I mean come on it isn’t werner von fuckin braun rocket science…is it..?

    one can only conclude from this that most of the western shit-holes racing to the bottom of the immigration toilet bowl /3rd world sweepstakes are in fact planning on destroying their respective countries and have been for decades.. ask enoch powell he had seen the ‘blue-prints’…

    and now these weaponised third world miscreants thanks to their sufficient ‘numbers’ and ‘special’ privileges can smell the ‘blood in the water’…

    one can only determine from this absurdity that you are living in ‘occupied’ nations because this is how ‘tyrants’ have always ‘diluted’ troublesome pests…

    and thus, you have been slated for extinction..

  108. anon[230] • Disclaimer says:

    With Remote work taking off since the pandemic, there is really no reason anymore to bring in white collar workers from any country. This large scale importation of Indian and Chinese tech and other white collar workers must now end. This will directly lead to much less need for blue collar workers to service them — build their homes, grow and serve their food, mow their lawns, etc. This would help alleviate the congestion in our metro areas, and make housing much more affordable for native citizens.

    You would think the companies would take full advantage of this, since it’s undoubtedly much cheaper to hire these people in their home countries than bringing them to the US, and much less hassle since they don’t have to deal with immigration.

    Thanks to remote work started by the pandemic, henceforth any company that continues to bring in foreign white collar workers should be considered treasonous as the only reason left to do so is to destroy our social cohesion.

  109. I totally disagree that the West stumbled into this disaster. The project was deliberate from the outset, going all the way back to the Kalergi Plan. And our friends in the small hats were pulling the strings at every turn in every country including Ireland despite their minuscule numbers.

  110. @Franz

    Union chiefs? Most of them supported mass immigration for ideological reasons.

    • Replies: @Franz
  111. @Priss Factor

    Jews also benefit from the atomisation of society and the ensuing breakdown of social cohesion and national identity. In fact imo this has been the main driver of their open borders strategy.

  112. Katrinka says:

    The time is way overdue. The 1960’s cowboy actor (star of the series Bronco) had an organized group of militia men who would patrol the Arizona/Mexico border. When the jews running Hollywood found out, his career as an actor was basically over. It is going to take personal sacrifice, something the men today are simply avoiding at all costs.

    After difficulties with the Internal Revenue Service, Hardin founded an anti-tax movement in Prescott, Arizona. In 1982, the movement became known as the Arizona Patriots.[17] The anti-Semitic group first gained public notice by its efforts to clog the Arizona court system with nuisance lawsuits in the 1980s, a tactic also employed by the violence-prone Posse Comitatus. The Patriots evolved from its anti-tax origins into a group described by the government and militia tracking groups as anti-Semitic, anti-immigrant and anti-black with a record of stockpiling weapons and threatening to assassinate Arizona state officials.[18] It eventually disappeared after being infiltrated by the FBI, and federal agents raided one of its camps in 1986. Three men (James Ellison, Kerrey Noble and William Thomas) were sentenced to prison, others to lesser sentences, and one remains a fugitive. Hardin eventually left Arizona for California.[19]

  113. @Anonymous

    It’s the difference between a society with high school graduates operating front-end loaders versus a society where you hire a gang of illiterate Meso-American peasants to swing pickaxes. Solow got an Economics Nobel for pointing that out, but you don’t hear much about Solow any more.

  114. @SafeNow

    If I may add, look at construction workers here in Mexifornia, most all are Mexican/South American. If you’re white, good luck trying to find a job on a construction crew made up of wetbacks.
    Open border politicians did this to construction jobs and most all others.
    Whites are already a minority here.
    Yet most all leftist whites seem oblivious as to what’s coming to their neck of the woods. They think they’re safe by voting for a dementia puppet and rallying around BLM/Antifa and LGBTIQPWXYZ Global Homo.
    They’re not.

    • Agree: TKK
    • Replies: @Robert Dolan
  115. geokat62 says:

  116. Charon says:

    Correct. TPTB have arranged a system of rewards and punishments which pervades every corner of society, and everyone from CEOs to minor politicians to media figures responds accordingly.

  117. Anonymous[197] • Disclaimer says:

    More fluff.
    This is contribution to “public finances”. What does that precisely mean? Of course, people who work jobs that are necessary but low-paying will not much income to pay a great deal of taxes and so their net contribution to “public finances” will be negative. So what? The same is true of natives who work in such jobs. What matters is total contribution to society.
    And who says what happens, supposedly, in the Netherlands, is relevant to the US?

  118. @CelestiaQuesta

    That’s right, ALL of the construction work has been taken by mexicans, many of whom are surely illegal.

    I worked construction when I was young…it was mostly whites and a few blacks… whites or blacks on any construction site now….it’s all browns with awful ranchero music blaring.

    • Agree: TKK
  119. TKK says:

    Where they drop the Yahoo bottle and any other litter right on the ground.

  120. @GMC

    You’re right: typically around 500 traitors in the US Congress alone.

    • Agree: GMC
  121. m___ says:

    Agree, poisoned data, dip in the pool of poisoned data. To build a “rational construct” constituted of mud.

  122. @niteranger

    Spot on .

    I feel you rage and pain. What you say is true but for some, ‘it’s all about money’….they couldn’t care less if western civilization and culture is destroyed in the pursuit of their god(small g)…money.

    • Replies: @niteranger
  123. @Rbze

    The uncounted cost of immigration lies in the destruction of the basis of a successful society, its Social Capital. To a very large degree all the societies of the West have succeeded because they are high trust, open, honest, future oriented tolerant and forbearing.

    This is destroyed by the alien invasion.

    It is an even greater cost than the fiscal one.

    • Replies: @Rbze
  124. @Anonymous

    “For some reason politics attracts indecisive addled brain cowards”…..
    …. and women who are largely incapable of ‘governing’ for the greater good. They govern based on “feelings and fairness”. What THEY feel is FAIR, with no thought concerning future ramifications.

  125. res says:

    Do you have a link? One possibility I see is this:
    but it seems more optimistic than yours. Though with assumptions like this I don’t trust their results very much. Emphasis mine.

    Each of the three population surpluses (res: three groups, roughly OECD, Eastern Europe, and rest of world) are thus dominated by the immigrants’ children and grandchildren. As these are assumed to have “Norwegian” behaviour, the impact after about 2050 has very little, if any, bearing on the disparities between different immigrant groups.

  126. Franz says:
    @Irish Savant

    Union chiefs? Most of them supported mass immigration for ideological reasons.

    Not here. Cesar Chavez wouldn’t even look at them, I heard, and ours were Old School depression boys who thought unions were meant to get work for “our fellows”. And that “Our” was really a tight definition coming from them. It’s why they’re still being called racists in the current century.

    Sadly, you’re right about some of the construction, aerospace, and other unions. But these AREN’T the old school guys who started with shovels and forklifts and worked their way up from locals. These are college-trained unionists who think the same way their frat/sorority pals do. The shame of it,

    The first time I met a union leader with a diploma I knew trouble was coming. I was right.

  127. Leo Den says:

    “what else have you got?”

    Racists like yourself dying of hunger. Maybe you and your kids can go pick the fields. Trump & Co could join you.

    • Replies: @anon
    , @Robert Dolan
  128. Leo Den says:

    Okay, start by example and lead the way: you and your family, go pick the fields for actual pay and lower your living standards. Then I’m sure the rest of your “theory” will follow.


    Didn’t think so, armchair general.

  129. @Franz

    Reproduction rates fall for all women who remain in paid employment after marriage. If a woman doesn’t look after her own kids, the costs are exorbitant. In Australia, it was easy for the first women who did it because and only because they had mothers, aunts, sisters, cousins and friends who had no paid employment and were glad to help.

    In the West, the crash in reproduction rates occurred first in Ashkenazi Jews and then spread first to women in socialist countries and then became universal. Now it’s most extreme in East Asia but also includes South America and countries like Iran.

    I knew a woman when she was working full time as a fruit packer. All, repeat all, of her wages were spent on child care and travelling expenses. She wouldn’t even consider staying at home and looking after her own baby because it’s not the custom in Australia. All of her friends are employees and employees aren’t likely to have many children. She could only afford to work because her husband had a job too. If his wages had been lower, she wouldn’t have been able to afford to work but could have afforded children. What friends would she have had?

    Nobody is going to make child care cheap because it isn’t. The crash in fertility certainly isn’t about people wanting a fulfilling career or more money. When it was the custom for women to give up employment after marriage, their friends were doing the same. Doing it now means social isolation. [email protected]

    • Replies: @Franz
    , @Alden
  130. @Malla

    Malla… honest. Are you that guy IndiaLandofRapes from the Robert Lindsay blog? I read your very accurate essay on solipsism on that other article(indian woman yale university) and it read so much like what he used to write. You can be honest with me.

    • Replies: @Malla
    , @Malla
  131. Anonymous[197] • Disclaimer says:

    You have to show that per capita GDP is the right measure to look at before you present an argument based on it, not say per capital GDP is not a good measure after you have presented an argument based on it. Does a housewife raise per capital GDP? No. Is her work valuable to society? Yes. Per capital GDP is not a good measure of benefit to society, period, full stop. And your objection to it, that it does not represent “new capital or wealth”, is a terrible objection, as objections to the GDP go. Leisure, happiness, consumption per se, “utility”, none of these represent “new capital or wealth”.

  132. Malla says:
    @RJ Macready

    No, I am not IndialandofRapes. I never posted on Robert’s blog but I learnt a lot from his blog. In those days I did not have the courage to post online on such subjects. I started with Unz.
    BTW, sorry if I could not respond to any emails. i had lost my password and was busy to fix it. I have got it back now.

    • Replies: @RJ Macready
  133. @Leo Den

    You stupid POS… think anybody here gives a fuck about the R word?

    What a dick.

  134. @johnnyuinta

    You are correct. It’s all about the money and the little Commies who run around doing the work for the Elite have no clue they are nothing but slaves.

  135. The United States as it was is over. Let what remains of it burn. Seasons change and so do Empires. Empires can not withstand erosion from within, same as then as it is now. Let it burn. Help it along! When you think cyclically with a wide time window view there is no sense fighting this decline. The point of no return was passed decades ago. When the lightning strikes, and alights the forest, what comes afterward is rebirth and regeneration once again. This has probably happened millions of times in earths history.

    At the very least this time, if the ship is on it’s way down, passengers should find a few of the elites who have shaped americas’ decline (the real ones, like those who control Blackrock or the members of the Business Round Table, not the fools in political office) and tie them to the bow so they hit the ocean floor first. Remember the ending of the movie “Runaway Train”?

    Don’t let them escape alive. This time lets’ get it right.

    • Replies: @Mike3
  136. Mr Jew says:

    Jews gloat about their minyans occupying key cabinet positions (like Attorney General and head of the DHS) which tells me the traitorous bastards (some of them) rigged the election for that purpose. I’m not sure what I can do about that, given that most of the Goys don’t seem to care, but I think that’s what happened.

  137. Polistra says:
    @Leo Den

    Don’t you just wonder how the USA ever survived during the years between 1925 and 1965, when immigration in general was de minimis, and third-world migrants almost unimaginable? You know, exactly the time when the nation arose to become the world’s leading power and the richest country in history, admired and/or envied by all?

    Contrast that with the headlong dive into the pits now. For someone who’s so quick to engage in name-calling, you have a lot to learn.

  138. @Leo Den

    ‘Okay, start by example and lead the way: you and your family, go pick the fields for actual pay and lower your living standards. ‘

    Given the labor shortage, the wages should skyrocket, so it won’t be so bad.

    In fact, the end effect of blocking immigration should be a flattening of the income distribution curve. We’ll be back to Archie Bunker driving a forklift and owning his own house and university professors moaning about not making as much as a factory worker.

    That basically doesn’t bother me. Does it bother you?

  139. @Malla

    then respond back please. I think you understand the plight of surrounded by low IQ Indian idiots who do nothing but gloat and talk bullshit all day. That is the reason I reached out to you in the first place.

  140. Malla says:
    @RJ Macready

    I believe IndiaLandofRapes is a Kashmiri guy who hates the Indian occupation of Kashmir. He even had a website.

    • Replies: @RJ Macready
  141. Franz says:
    @Donald A Thomson

    If his wages had been lower, she wouldn’t have been able to afford to work but could have afforded children

    Stories like that here too. How incredibly stupid they sound when you spell them out.

    This started in the 1970s, about the same time bankers started what some of us call Corporation Feminism — that is, feminism friendly to international finance, but a bust for the world most of us live in.

    Think how much more than that the fiscal piggies stolen from us: The Family Wage was never codified into law, but any employer that paid crap wages was treated like… well, crap. It was important to have enough for a family — including enough for food, shelter and education and schooling including college and still allow the mother to stay home. Feminism was tasked to destroy that option.

    The family women of the old days also did much volunteer work, especially as the kids got older. This allowed communities to plug gaps that made tax dollars unnecessary. They had reading clubs and kept culture alive — who has time now? — and more importantly kept voting relatively clean through organizations like the Women’s League of Voters.

    The sense of community and the power it gives rested with the female, so they worked on her the hardest. Awful hard to resist corporate propaganda.

    A good rule of thumb might be that if a nation needs moms as workers is cursed because it no longer has the glue to stay civilized. You’ll have lots of overworked hamsters and no control over your future. Over fifty years of Corporate Feminism and not many have questioned it.

  142. Adrian says:

    Destruction? Or creation? the West lost money on many of its colonies. Brought modern civilization and were in many cases better rulers than what was before them.

    The latter part of this statement is quite true.

    There are various roads to despising Wokeness. With me it was especially the cant about independence and liberty of former Western colonies that led me there. What gaining independence meant in most cases was that a foreign exploitative elite was replaced by an indigenous one which could get away with far grosser violations of human rights than the colonising country ever committed. Why – exactly because it was indigenous and not restrained by a metropolitan center of the colonizing country.

    Indonesia constitutes a case in point. I think it is safe to say that since gaining independence more Indonesians have been killed by their own countrymen, notably so in the aftermath of the failed coup of Sept. 1965, than by the Dutch in 300 years of colonization.

    Their exploits in West Papua alone surpass in brutality and naked exploitation almost anything the West has done on this score. The Dutch had post second World War a benevolent administration there trying to prepare the country for independence by around 1970. The Indonesians insisted that they were entitled to this Melanesian area because it had administratively belonged to the Dutch East Indies. Under the Kennedy administration they got their chance, helped along by a badly briefed American ambassador who never even bothered to come and have a look at the region for himself.

    The Dutch were forced to hand over the area in return for an agreement (the “Bunker Agreement” of August 1962) that its population would be allowed to decide about its future in a plebiscite (“an act of free choice”) in seven years time. This “plebiscite’ was duly held and is generally called the “act of no choice” – a completely fraudulent performance signed and sealed by the UN.

    Meanwhile Indonesia has allowed foreign companies to plunder the area of its mineral and forestry resources and tens of thousands of Papuans have been killed. Thousands of others have been robbed of their ancestral lands. Indonesia has settled hundreds of thousands of its own citizens there and not too far from now the Papuans will be a minority in their own country. And Indonesia still has the audacity to call this act of wanton usurpation “Pembebasan” – “Liberation”. Here is the Jakarta monument to this liberated Papuan:

    Meanwhile the woke part of the Dutch population, especially found among the young, hardly pays any attention to this but moans endlessly about the alleged misdeeds of their colonial ancestors.

    See for developments leading to the Indonesian takeover:

    • Agree: Malla
    • Replies: @Malla
    , @Malla
  143. Anonymous[352] • Disclaimer says:

    Margaret Thatcher once famously said that “the trouble with socialism is that it is very easy to be generous with other people’s money”.

    This can be adapted somewhat to describe the modern, western, political dispensation:

    ” The trouble with immigration is that it is very easy for politicians to be generous with other people’s country”.

    • Replies: @CanSpeccy
  144. Anonymous[352] • Disclaimer says:

    There are authoritative studies by impartial researchers finding that mass immigration is fiscally disastrous in the UK, too.

    Notably, the so called ‘CReAM’ study – details available at Migrationwatch – which costs the impact of mass immigration to the UK at £114 billion in the years from 1995 to 2011 inclusive.

  145. @Malla

    Nah dude. He was from Andra-Tamil brahmin. And currently(or at least around 2018) he was in Germany. He mentions both these points here:

    • Replies: @Malla
  146. bispora says:
    @James Thompson

    I bet you could not find the report prepare by Statistics Norway in 2012. I tried to find it without success in 2016 but the whole report strangely dissapiared from the net… It was the first statistical report on the extreme financial burden for european nations caused by black and moslim immigrants.

    You may find only the recension of the report on site:
    “When one non-western immigrant arrives, the Norwegian state assumes a future net cost obligation which Statistics Norway estimates at NOK 4.1 million in 2012. The figures thus shatter the myth that immigration is profitable, writes Finansavisen. – The figure contains all tax revenues, minus all public expenditure, says senior researcher at Statistics Norway, Erlend Holmøy, to the newspaper. billion expenses, net. This corresponds to two development assistance budgets, or about half of the 125 billion kroner that the state will spend on oil revenues this year. – The cost will be borne by the average Norwegian over the tax bill, or in the form of lower capacity or quality of various welfare services, says Holmøy to Finansavisen. non-western immigration continues as in 2012”
    As I remember the most expensive immigrants for Norway taxpayers was the Somali migrant with one million Euro/lifetime net expenditure.
    Funny enough it is exacly in the range of the Nobel prize amount…

  147. PJ London says:
    @Peter Lund

    At the time the first news paper report was that it was blood not spray paint . This and numerous other details have changed. Of course in light of the number of shots and wounds it seems unlikely that he could have done it. However it is also possible that having shot him and probably rendered him unconscious the killers may have left him in the kitchen and then hearing him moving around came back down, finished the job and moved him to another room.
    The pictures published later are undeniably spray paint, but the motive for such an act seems remote.
    Nobody knows and no conclusive evidence has been presented.
    The reports of the police have still not been released.
    It is a fact that he did lecture at RAU and the theme of that lecture was immigration and restoring a ‘white population balance’ by immigration from E Europe.
    The idea that BOSS, (with a dozen ‘patriots’ happy to do its’ bidding and several young Rhodesians who had been displaced but were trained in clandestine operations including targeted assassination and taken into the SA security forces,) would have farmed it out to the CIA who farmed it out to Cubans, is simply ludicrous.
    He gave a few lectures at UNISA which I attended, but there the subject was purely economics.
    It was also reported that a jet plane took off from Lanseria, an airport with no / little regulations in the late hours of the evening with two foreign passengers aboard.
    It is unimaginable that Smit would have gone public with details that would harm either the National Party or the country. If he had any plan it would have been to handle it internally, within the Party hierarchy or the Broederbond.
    The CIA and the Americans were busy running around SA at the time, because of Angola, but there would be no discernible benefit to being involved in such a scheme.
    The fact that top National Party persons and Cabinet ministers were sending money overseas and/or were profiting from “round-tripping” currency was well publicised and no-one would have been killed because of it, not even with irrefutable proof of names.
    I have instances of other individuals involved with financial schemes to overcome the sanctions and when they became potential problems a quiet power demonstration and discussion about their children’s future, put paid to any possible disclosures.
    If BOSS or any other agency had been involved he would have disappeared or ended up as another road statistic. God knows there were enough of those.
    Whilst it may be cognitive reinforcement or mere short-sightedness, having met the man (and many BOSS operatives) I will go with my original thoughts.

  148. Why don’t you whites just secede and create your own state? I have mentioned this in every post of mine if you look at my post history. This is the only viable solution. Take up arms-your race has valor and courage. What is the worst that’ll happen? They’ll shoot at you? I have said this many a times- there are many, many whites from as far off as Germany, Sweden and Australia who are absolutely fed up with the state of things. What is the worst that will happen? You’ll be shot dead? But that will make your cause a martyr for future generations.

    Get a large state-I dont know where but do it. Greenland, the state of Maine or Alberta…there must be some land somewhere. Take the mayfair and start afresh. Roll out the rules- only whites, not even spanish or italians. Pretty soon you’ll have millions joining you. Millions of Swedes and Germans and English….Millions of men who have all the great traits to make a great society, above all rationality and the implementation of those rational elements into daily structure. The same structure that has every person running to western shores today. I am a brown skin Indian man, an institution on western culture, history and sociology and it pains me to see the state of things. What has gone wrong? When did it go wrong? I wrongly believed, but still do to some extent that shit hit the fan after the 00s with fast broadband internet. But clearly this chaos was brewing from way way before.

    Keep the jew out-shoot him on sight. Keep the negro and the asian out. Maybe take a few very brilliant ones in as example. Build spaceships to Mars, build the evolved language of communication, build and prosper-only you people can. You build the nest and everyone comes in and takes over. But this time lay down some strict rules.

    On a side note the more I am reading about the jews the more shocked I get on how many of them are jews that I never knew. Harrison Ford is a jew!!!!

  149. pindos says:

    And…. How much water is being flushed to the ocean for fish? It’s a choice.

  150. @RJ Macready

    Why don’t you whites just secede and create your own state? I have mentioned this in every post of mine if you look at my post history. This is the only viable solution. Take up arms-your race has valor and courage. What is the worst that’ll happen? They’ll shoot at you? I have said this many a times- there are many, many whites from as far off as Germany, Sweden and Australia who are absolutely fed up with the state of things. What is the worst that will happen? You’ll be shot dead? But that will make your cause a martyr for future generations.

    For Australians the right solution to their problem is going back to UK.

    On a side note the more I am reading about the jews the more shocked I get on how many of them are jews that I never knew. Harrison Ford is a jew!!!!

    After what happened to the Jewish People in Europe during WWII my parents taught me to use a Jewish Person instead of a Jew when referring to someone like Harrison Ford.

    • Replies: @annamaria
  151. Malla says:
    @RJ Macready

    Wow a South Indian ran that website.!!! He openly wrote about the Australoid genetic pollution of the Caucasoid side of us South Asians. Causing all the problems of the Indian subcontinent. Maybe because he is Brahman.
    That Janardhan fellow who is Indian, who wrote about the intertwined Superiority complex feelings with Inferiority complex feelings of Indians/Pakistanis/Bangladeshis etc.. (also present in Jews, Muslims, Southern Europeans, Chinese etc… ,mostly w.r.t Northern Europeans and the Japanese also w.r.t European/Western Civilization as well as East Asian Civilization especially Japanese) is a genius. Robert Lindsay’s linking it with solipsism and narcissism was great too. After reading it, I realized, “This is so true, why did I not think of this before? This to a large extent explains the intense (at times unexplainable) hatred Indians have for White people, especially British and even the Chinese”. This is one of the most important historical- racial-psychological phenomenon which explains so many things. The Indian, Chinese, Muslim, Jewish etc… hatred for the West and White people in general, especially Northern Europeans. The Chinese & Korean hatred for the Japanese. The Indian hatred for the Chinese. The Jewish hatred for Whites and Western/Russian Civilization, especially Northern Europeans (including Anglos, Germans, Slavs etc..) as well as maybe East Asians (especially the Japanese). And the specifically intense Brahman hatred for the British and White people and Western Civilization and maybe even East Asians especially the Chinese.
    Remember the powerful Poona/Pune Brahmins like Tilak hated the British like crazy while the Marathas hated the Muslims. Warrior Marathas hated the Muslims for past injustice and brutality on Hindus during Mughal rule but Brahmins hated the British partly because of superiority-inferiority complex feelings intertwined. Tilak brought back the idea of Maratha Empire founder King Chatrapati Shivaji Maharaj (Shivaji craze had died down by the 1800s, he got the idea from reading a letter in newspaper of a British officer who was lamenting that Shivajis Samadhi/grave was not taken care of!!!!), so he brought back the idea of Shivaji to rile up the warrior Maratha castes against the Muslims at the same time. You live in Bombay, you know how it is even to this day. The Brahmin hatred for the British is a very good case of superiority-inferiority complex feelings in action. “We wuz special and chosen by god to rule others but could not even invent a steam engine like the lowly beef eating White mleccha barbarians..Booo Hooo”. LOL.

    Even blacks are in the game now, inventing their own wakanda Afro-centrist bullshit history to feel arrogant superior an sheet but also deep inside feel inferio and sheet. This Janardhan dude’s theory explains so many things. We may call it “Janardhan’s theory”. One of the most important theory of anthropology and group psychology. Some of us Indians are really observant and smart, huh. What a brilliant theory. Truth be told, Janardhan’s theory really influenced my thinking a lot.

  152. CanSpeccy says: • Website

    ” The trouble with immigration is that it is very easy for politicians to be generous with other people’s country”.

    Thing is, the Western nations are being destroyed not out of misplaced generosity to migrants at the expense of indigenous populations, but as a matter of policy.

    Global governance is the objective of both left and right.

    The left wants world Communist dictatorship, the right wants world rule by the Money Power. (And if you look at Communist China, with more billionaires in its Parliament than there are in the US Congress) you realize that Left and Right are barely distinguishable except in name.

    For both left and right the greatest obstacle to their primary objective is the nation state.

    What to do?

    Adopt a program of national genocide, which, as explained by Raphael Lemkin, the man who coined the term genocide, that

    does not necessarily signify mass killings … More often it refers to a coordinated plan aimed at destruction of the essential foundations of the life of national groups so that these groups wither and die like plants that have suffered a blight.

    To which end, mass immigration of people of alien race and culture combined with woke bullying of the indigenous people, serves perfectly.

    And it takes only a generation of propaganda dispensed as state-mandated “education” and you have the native population, those targeted for racial and cultural elimination, vying for the leadership of the woke.

    For further details, an outline of the program for the destruction of the Western nations has been concisely stated by arch-enemy of the Woke West, Vladimir Putin.

  153. Russian immigrant Jew here. Thanks to Canada’s immigration policy my family came here from the former SU in the early 1990s. I was 6. Fast forward, I married a white gentile (Russian Slavic girl, nominally). She converted to Judaism so we could be culturally compatible and now our four young mixed white/Jewish kids are adorable. Glad to do my part in diluting the ‘purity’ of the white race. We live in Toronto and I work for a major insurer – and let me tell you – it’s not Jews that are taking over but Asians (have no issues with them – they are all professionals and experts in their fields). Of course many of the people here would view them as inferior even though guys and gals with last names of Lee, Yu, Singh and Rajagopal outperform lazy self-entitled ‘Aryans’ who fume helplessly in outrage.

    • Replies: @Katrinka
  154. @RJ Macready

    Nice try Andy. We know you’re just a white trashy hillbilly masquerading as an Indian. I think many Italians and Spaniards would be surprised to learn they aren’t white. And yes, please all move to Alberta so we can ring fence that shit hole and let the rest of Canada get on with the world to build civilization. And Harrison Ford Jewish? I’ll have whatever it is you’re smoking.

    • Replies: @geokat62
    , @Malla
    , @RJ Macready
  155. What I love best about an article like this is how it brings out the moaners and whiners. You see – none of you are capable of accomplishing any of your goals in real life. Take Canada for instance, the only party that could reasonably claim to be anti immigrant are the Conservatives. They get 33 percent of the vote and that’s it. They can only get more than that by becoming more liberal on immigration because of over 8M non whites and huge immigrant pops in Canada now. The People’s Party? Rounding error votes and sucking them from Cons. 66 percent vote for liberal and left parties which are pro mass immigration.

    The white majority in Canada is toast – only a matter of time. You can retreat to small hamlets and towns that are 99 percent white – but in the major cities and towns and surrounding areas – your at best a slim and shrinking majority. On my street – 10 percent white. In my suburb maybe 40-45, those numbers will never reverse.

  156. Katrinka says:

    You are sick. Get help ASAP.

    • Replies: @Wizard of Oz
  157. geokat62 says:

    And Harrison Ford Jewish? I’ll have whatever it is you’re smoking.

    From the website Jew or Not Jew:

    Some Jews are easy to spot. Take Woody Allen, for instance. You don’t need a Jewish radar (Jewdar?) or some clever website to tell you he is Jewish. One look at the former Mr. Konigsberg is all you need to permanently classify him as a member of the tribe.
    And then there’s Harrison Ford.

    Let’s face it; Ford doesn’t look Jewish, Ford doesn’t act Jewish, and “Ford” doesn’t sound Jewish. In fact, if you poll a man on the street, they will gladly proclaim one of America’s favorite action heroes to be an Irishman. And they would be half right.

    For Ford’s father is Irish — but his mother is Jewish. And as he says himself, he feels “Irish as a person but Jewish as an actor”. Perfect. So you Irishmen can take his bulimic-dating real-life persona. We’ll claim Han Solo and Indiana Jones.

    Not a fair trade-off? Sure, but what else do you expect from this website?

    Verdict: Jew.

    • Replies: @Pseudonymous117
  158. @Anon

    And the “anti-christ” was or is who?

  159. Malla says:

    Thanks. very true. This is interesting as I was just discussing the Dutch East Indies and how the USA (Wall Street pigs) forced the destruction of the Dutch Empire there, so that it could deal with corrupt Indonesian leaders directly (rather then more honest and upright Dutch officers) to loot the place up, on a different page.

    • Replies: @Bombercommand
    , @Adrian
  160. @Malla

    Just stopping by to say I have read all your comments the last few days and want to thank you for them. So Mr Unz thinks they are a bit off topic, who cares, I have learned a hell of a lot.

    • Thanks: Malla
  161. @Pseudonymous117

    Your Comment History: 3 comments, all 3 on this one article, all 3 posted in 36 minutes, and the article had been up 3 days before you appear out of nowhere. You are as phony as the Big Lie that the “kingdom of israel” actually existed.

  162. @Pseudonymous117

    You are a shining example of why Hitler did what he did. Your group must be exterminated at all costs. Funny how life goes. I started off as a typical teen abhorring the nazis, complaining about new nazis in school to not only siding with them today but also understanding fully well why they did what they did. Jews are the reason there is so much chaos on earth. The whites are too weak and pathetic-I hope in the far future the Chinese finish what the nazis started.

  163. The relatively low net contributions of the central and eastern Europeans is kind of bizarre, considering the similar IQ’s and lack of cultural and religious baggage that the central and eastern Europeans bring with them. The Eastern and central Europeans are also well educated. The only thing that would explain this would be if most or many of the people who came from those regions were Gypsies,subcons or middle easterners who just passed through eastern and central europe on their way to Netherlands. I have known quite a number of immigrants from central and eastern europe who were real Europeans and not Gypsies and every single one of them either set up a business, got a decent job and stayed with it and not one of them has ever been on welfare or any other kind of government dependency.

  164. Rbze says:
    @Bill Jones

    Finance also does not care about the basis of a successful society because it is not tied to any one particular society or location. It can make money anywhere off most anything. They can make money from successful society or failed society, and often the failed society is even better.

  165. @Leo Den

    My family uses 500,000 $ combines fuckface.
    Shove it right up your fat, stupid, lying ass faggot.

  166. @Pseudonymous117

    The numbers will change.
    You were hired to fulfill a goal. You made the rich insanely rich.
    Now you will be killed by an mRNA bio weapon, famine and energy ‘shortages’.
    Congrats: you served the Jew well.

  167. Adrian says:

    I read your posts with interest. We have some stuff for discussion there but in order not to try Ron’s patience too much with this off topic stuff we should wait until a more suitable thread turns up or put it somewhere on an open thread. Unfortunately the blog “Indonesiamatters” is gone. The moderator/owner went back to Australia.

    • Replies: @Malla
  168. Adrian says:
    @James Thompson

    Why not look to Australia? I gave a link above.

  169. Adrian says:
    @Arthur MacBride

    Thanks for this. About sixty plus years ago I lived in Amsterdam but even then it was quite different from what this film shows. Some of the working class districts (mainly shown on this film), such as the “Jordaan”, were already partly gentrified. The Jewish quarter had gone. Once it was a very vibrant part of Amsterdam. It still existed in 1922 of course.

    Seventy five years ago a black man in the streets of the provincial town where I spent my youth was an occasion for kids to follow him.

    Going further back in Theodor Fontane’s nineteenth century novel Effi Briest the fact that a Chinaman is buried in the town where the action takes place is supposed to be decisive for its atmosphere.

  170. Malla says:


    Unfortunately the blog “Indonesiamatters” is gone.

    Is it not archived? Did you not save the pages? I have a lot of interest in Indonesia and the Dutch Empire too. But because I am Indian I know more about the British Empire. I have written about the Belgian Empire, Portuguese Empire, Japanese empire, Spanish Empire, French Empire etc…. and the Dutch Empire too at times but I am always open to truly understanding this period of Imperial history as I believe and I know that we have been lied to a lot about them. There was a Dutch guy who used to comment a lot on this website some years ago and he did mention the Dutch East Indies sometimes.

    Anyways whenever you want to discuss something, please let me know.

    On a different note, you could try out reading and listening to Prof Bruce Gilley on Colonialism (if you have not yet).

    Prof Bruce Gilley: The Case for Colonialism

    • Replies: @dearieme
    , @Adrian
  171. @RJ Macready

    I thought according to you people the Holocaust didn’t happen? Make up your mind. And as typical, all you do is make threats on the internet because you can’t bring yourself to accomplish anything in real life besides stew in your resentment.

    Cant wait for immigrants, including the Chinese, to replace you.

  172. @geokat62

    My bad I read that as Henry Ford 😃 that would be something if he was a Jew.

  173. annamaria says:
    @Charles Martel France

    “After what happened to the Jewish People in Europe…”
    — Here is what a Jewish Person Shaya Itsikovich (Filipp Goloshchyokin) had done to the Kazakh people: Goloshchyokin genocide:–1933.

    Filipp Isayevich Goloshchyokin, born Shaya Itsikovich (1876 – 1941) was a Bolshevik revolutionary, Soviet politician, and party functionary. … He is best known for his involvement as one of the primary perpetrators of the killing of the Romanov family, as well as for the deadly role which he played in the Sovietization of Kazakhstan. …

    From 1925 to 1933 he ran the Kazakh Autonomous Socialist Soviet Republicwith virtually no outside interference as a local dictator. … Goloshchyokin ordered that Kazakhstan’s largely nomadic population was to be forced to settle in collective farms. This caused a deadly famine in Kazakhstan which killed between 1 and 2 million people. … 40% of all Kazakhs died…

    A historian V.L. Burtsev, who knew Goloshchyokin, characterized him as such:

    This is a man who does not stop the blood. This trait is especially noticeable in his nature: the executioner, cruel, with some elements of degeneration. In party life he was arrogant, was a demagogue, a cynic. He did not count the Kazakhs as people at all.

    “He did not count the Kazakhs as people at all.” — Where did we hear that before?

    Israeli Sephardic leader Rabbi Ovadia Yosef in his weekly Saturday night sermon said that non-Jews exist to serve Jews.
    “Goyim were born only to serve us. Without that, they have no place in the world; only to serve the People of Israel.”

  174. babu says:

    Great events in history are shaped by people who have nothing to lose. The misfits, the failures the criminal elements form the ranks of these revolutionary movements because they are available and are willing to be led by the plotters and the planers who leave their mark on history.

  175. dearieme says:

    I have written about the Belgian Empire, Portuguese Empire, Japanese empire, Spanish Empire, French Empire etc…. and the Dutch Empire too at times

    I trust that the “etc” covers the Mughal Empire and earlier empires in the subcontinent’s history.

    • Replies: @Malla
  176. @TG

    Exactly. What passes for the establishment “left” pushes unending mass immigration — which makes it impossible to safeguard the rights and interests they claim to are so much about:
    (Which I ACTUALLY care about):

    — environmental protection, including reduced fossil-fuel consumption and reduced air and water pollution

    — ensuring that people lacking power and wealth have real bargaining power with their employers and prospective employers, and can effectively demand good working conditions, treatment, and compensation

    • Agree: Alden
  177. @Liborio Guaso

    How would that explain or justify Chinese and Indian immigration to the USA and Canada?

  178. Alden says:

    About Golden Gate Bridge traffic; it’s not just north south San Francisco to Marin commuter traffic twice a day any more any more. GGB also gets about 100K commuters twice a day whose homes are not north of San Francisco but east of San Francisco on the east side of the Bay.

    The traffic on the east west Oakland Bridge from San Francisco to Oakland and the East Bay suburbs is so heavy that many people who work in San Francisco and live in the East Bay north of Oakland drive first north over the GGB to Marin and then go east on the Richmond Bridge to their homes in the East Bay.

    That’s 2 instead of 1 bridge fares and about 30 more miles a day commuting.

    Why do we work when welfare up in Lake or Modoc counties is available? .

    Every White family could have 5 kids on welfare up there and live as well as on 150K in the Bay Area.

  179. Alden says:
    @Donald A Thomson

    Child care costs only last till the child is 7 or 8. After that they can get home from school and occupy themselves till parents come home. In America we have long summer vacations. There are many many day time activities for kids often in the local park within walking distance. Or they can stay home and occupy themselves. If you have a swimming pool make sure they know how to swim by the time they’re 3.

    Kids like to be home alone doing activities they themselves initiate and carry out. With video games YouTube etc they can stay happily home.

    Am I the only person in the world who is aware that kids don’t stay 2 years old forever?

    That dan fool ijit liberal Kristoff just had another lying New York Times article that implied the need for child care for working moms never end till the kid’s 18th birthday.

  180. Adrian says:

    Thank you for the vidio with Professor Bruce Gilley. I hadn’t heard him yet.

    As far as Indonesia matters is concerned I don’t think that the whole blog has been archived but various contributions by individual authors can still be found.I will give here the link to the author I know best and can try to track down more:

    • Replies: @Malla
  181. Malla says:

    Actually I did, both the positives and negatives. Not only the Mughals, even the others, like the Maratha Empire, Sikh empire etc….
    Just recently I came across this excellent piece on Mughal India. BTW
    Emperors of Extraction: The Mughals did not make India rich. Claims of their welfarism only buttress a political agenda
    by Abhishek Mitra Iyer
    A riposte to Rana Safvi’s argument on how the Mughals apparently strengthened India, while, in fact, Europe grew by paces just then and India’s poverty shocked visitors.

    A small snippet
    “Add to this the point that almost 1/4th of the Mughal state’s revenue was the emperor’s personal property, that 1/3rd of the revenues went into maintaining the Omrah (or court) and that between 60% to 70% of revenue was concentrated in the hands of just 655 nobles — that tells you all you need to know.

    The same Thomas Roe that Safvi quotes, for example, was shocked at the levels of poverty he encountered in India. The Mughal empire, like any medieval feudal empire, and the entire Islamic period in India was a period of economic stagnation — one that saw Europe steadily overtaking it even in the 1500s and reaching a massive power differential by the 1700s.”

    • Thanks: dearieme
  182. Malla says:

    Thanks. I might be able to forward that link (Indonesimatters-Arie Brand) to Prof Gilley actually. Let us all help him get information and perspectives on Colonialism. I will have a look at that page. You can try out Professor Gilley’s other works, videos, books etc…. Also you can read the articles by Keith Windschuttle. Writes about topics like colonialism, distortion of history and the left. Mostly about British Empire and Australia but writes about colonialism in general too.
    Imperialism and History
    The Left

    BTW in some book I was reading by a British person back in the 1800s, he wrote that the Dutch system of governance in the East Indies was excellent and that the British in India could learn many things from it. Do not remember which, but if I come across this again, I will let you know. Maybe, Alleyne Ireland in his book Tropical Colonization, but am not sure.

    • Replies: @Adrian
  183. Mike3 says:
    @USA invades Israel

    I agree. The country is irreversibly finished at this point.

  184. It is not enough to oppose what’s happening to North America and Europe. Unless we can mount real resistance against the globalists we are going down.

    🔹”Hold Back This Day” – The Last Whites On Earth And Their Valiant Struggle To Survive – an amazon novel

  185. Adrian says:

    The book you are referring to is probably this one:


    Java; or, How to manage a colony. Showing a practical solution to the questions now affecting British India

    London. Hurst and Blackett. 1861 ( it is available online).

    I read the book. The author seemed to be mainly surprised that the situation he encountered there was so different from what he had always been told in his club in Singapore and elsewhere. Anglo- Dutch rivalry in the archipelago has played a role until the last days of their government there. Raffles seems to have hated the Dutch (though he had some loyal Dutch advisers during the British interregnum in Java). His prejudices ared apparent in his History of Java,

    This anti-Dutch attitude had deep roots. It was fairly general in Britain during the 17th Century, a period which saw three Anglo-Dutch naval wars. One of its highlights on the Dutch Side was Admiral De Ruyter’s invasion of the Medway and the burning of part of the British fleet, including its flagship HMS Royal Charles which was lying at anchor. Pepys’ diary describes the panic this caused in London.

    Forward to 1945. Louis Mountbatten was Supreme Commander South East Asia. Apparently he had commanded Ltn. General Christison to seek contact with the Indonesian national leaders (of whom the main one, Sukarno, had closely collaborated with the Japanese) . The two co-signatories of the Indonesian Declaration of Independence, Sukarno and Hatta, were also flown in as intermediaries in the Battle of Surabaya in which some British Indian troops came to blows with a ragtag army of Indonesian nationalist youths after the murder of General Mallaby. Some Dutch saw that as a premature legitimation of some nationalist leaders.

    As far as that battle was concerned: the Indonesians lost it. It was nevertheless a formative event in the birth of their nation which is commemorated every year on Hari Pahlawan (Heroes Day).

    Later the British supported the infant Republic in the UN. Their general attitude seemed to be that now they had given up India it was simply not done for the Dutch to try and hold on to the Netherlands Indies (actually the situation on the Dutch side was a bit more complicated than that).

    A picaresque side show in this is the supposed encounter between the Afrikaner British Officer Laurens van der Post and Edwina Mountbatten on board of a British warship. Van der Post was a first class raconteur and a very plausible embellisher of his own actions and importance. Later he became a good friend of Prince Charles, the godfather of Prince William and an adviser of Margaret Thatcher on South African Affairs.

    About twenty years ago a debunking biography was published by J.D.F.Jones under the title Teller of many Tales (Van der Post was defended by Booker in The Spectator) – but earlier than that I had already heard a lecture by a British anthropologist who claimed that Van der Post had blown up a trip of a few weeks among the Bushmen of the Kalahari into first class anthropological expertise).

    Though Van der Post had only just been released from a Japanese prisoner of war camp (where he had convinced his fellow detainees that he had a more distinguished rank than he actually had) he convinced Edwina that the nationalist revolution was at that stage far more widespread than it actually was. Presumably she reported this back to her husband.

    • Thanks: Malla
    • Replies: @Malla
    , @James Thompson
  186. Malla says:

    Java; or, How to manage a colony. Showing a practical solution to the questions now affecting British India
    London. Hurst and Blackett. 1861 ( it is available online).

    Thanks that is the book.

    Anyways Mountbatten and his wife did a lot of fishy things in India as well. He actually supported the Indian nationalists too much even supporting Patel’s forcing of Indian Princely States into Indian Union at times, against their will. Might have created problems in Kashmir. Seemed like an anti-Empire guy.

    Thanks, I thought that the British supported the Netherlands in the East Indies. Looks like even Britain along with Australia and the USA, played a part in destroying the Dutch Empire. This is news to me.
    Actually this inter-European rivalry (including Russia) as well as rivalry with the USA and Japan, played a big part in process of colonialism in the first place. That is the main reason why Colonialism happened and expanded.

  187. @Adrian

    Thanks for these historical details. Vand der Post always was a bit self-invented.

    • Replies: @dearieme
  188. aj54 says:

    Earlier this month Denmark passed laws to deport asylum seekers to a third country awaiting their cases being heard, and to strip citizenship from those immigrant citizens who have committed crimes in Denmark. It is probably just a matter of time before there are more stringent means to reduce the numbers.

  189. Bert says:

    Why do you dismiss obwandiyag’s point in such a silly fashion? He clearly is saying that competition for jobs and the general social disintegration caused by high rates of immigration are more important than higher taxes to fund welfare. Which seems correct to many.

  190. dearieme says:
    @James Thompson

    Van der Post always was a bit self-invented.

    The Edward de Bono of his day?

    • Replies: @James Thompson
  191. Chinaman says:

    Someone should calculate the cost and benefit (if any) of the illegal immigration of Europeans savages and convicts to the Americas and Australia for Native Indians and Australian Aboriginals.

    The Genocidal 7, aka G7 have a lot to answer for.

    • Replies: @James Thompson
  192. @dearieme

    Interesting comparison, but they occupied different niches. de Bono was in the “intelligence/problem solving booster technique”, van der Post in the ever-popular “what we, in a very real sense, can learn from savages”. That one will run and run.

  193. @Chinaman

    Interesting. Recent work suggest that the depopulation of the Americas (or at least central America) preceded the arrival of Columbus, and was due to local internecine conflicts. New archeological findings, if I recall, reported in the last month or so.

    • Replies: @Chinaman
  194. Chinaman says:
    @James Thompson

    I guess the next argument you will make is that Australian Aboriginals, with the lowest recorded IQ of 60, were so stupid that if they were not genocide by the British convicts, they would have, inevitably, died of stupidity and low IQ. ( even though they did fine for 50000 years before the English convicts arrived).

    The complete genocide of Tasmanian Aboriginals was the only recorded case where a species under the Homo genus is directly responsible for the extinction of one of its own subspecies.

    This genetic disposition to kill its own, as a novel evolutionary strategy, should allow us to classify the Brits ( and the other genocidal 7 ) as a genetically distinct species which shall be called

    Homo Genocidal.

    This should be used as direct evidence for White supremacy.

    • Replies: @Wizard of Oz
    , @dearieme
  195. @Chinaman

    I’m glad you are not obsessing about the past though it seems a pity that you missed the opportunity to tease all those virtue signalling Canadians who should be reminded that they wiped out the Beothuks of Newfoundland long before the last full blooded Tasmanian died (who dies despite the genuine efforts of Tasmania’s Prtectotor of Aborigines)

    It would be amusing to compare the history of eunuchs and who continued to support castration. Arab traders in African blacks of course but also 18th century Popes (for the glory of God and the careers of the choir boys (soloists anyway) ) In the 19th century the Chinese imperial court. Of course there wouldn’t be much of a problem of descendants to compensate.

    BTW what do you think of that IQ 60 for Australian Aborigines.? I’ve always thought it was absurd and a reason to doubt Lynn and Vanhenen’s (and Phil Rushton’s) work.

  196. dearieme says:

    What was mainly responsible for the vanishing of the Tasmanian Aborigines was the sale of the females to visiting whalers. Sale by the males, that is to say. Happily many of the whalers were Americans so we can still blame Donald Trump.

  197. The EU proposed fining member countries that refused to take their “fair share” of “refugees”.

    Opponents of the plan asked why, when the main recipients of “refugees” such as Germany constantly tell us that diversity is their strength, they should penalize countries that choose to let the others keep this blessing to themselves?

    The proposed fine was €250,000 fine per refused “refugee”. At the time, people wondered whether the EU’s estimate of the net worth of a “refugee” was negative quarter of a million Euros.

    It turns out that that were not pessimistic enough. It would be cost-effective to pay the fine and refuse the migrant. It would not surprise me if the EU had done its own study of the economic value of a migrant, and reached the same conclusions as this Dutch research.

  198. Reaper says:

    Excellent article/ study.
    Thank you/ respect.

    That is even lesser researched what happens with 2./ 3. generation migrant, but that is an interesting topic.

    In my experience that comes down to the “new home country” education system/ propaganda machine (includes media). Where the first generation are very much aware what was the original situation they come from, when the 2./ 3. generation do not come from such – but grow up with the new country standards and they measure the better situation/ benefits as base/ granted -> eg. they have rights for that, also extra rights based on minority status.
    Anything which harm it leads to massive counteractions, includes radicalization when they are became far more radical than not just the 1. generation miogrant, but also far more radical than the ones in their country of origin.

  199. dearieme says:

    Off topic (or is it?)

    What ho, doc.

    From the Astral Codex Ten blog, a link.

    • Replies: @James Thompson
  200. @dearieme

    Ah, the “genetic lottery” argument once again. No, children cannot choose their parents, but this exposition glosses over the fact that parents chose each other (and in my view, should not be punished for that).

    • Replies: @Anonymous
  201. @RJ Macready

    You know, just being Indian does not give you the right to say insane things —are you Hindu? if you are, be careful, it is wrong to invoke foolish hatred ….
    (yes, I understand much about the Hindu view of the universe —- and I am trying to be helpful).

  202. Anonymous[234] • Disclaimer says:
    @James Thompson

    That’s not the main argument of the paper. It’s a typical progressivist attempt to sit on two chairs:

    “Yes, lots of things that matter are partially genetic. BUT, they are also partially environmental! So they should be amenable to intervention – as long as only we try hard enough“.

    Basically, these are the “true communism/socialism/whatever has never been tried” kind of folks.

  203. EH says: • Website

    An update to the chart I linked a couple of months ago, with typo in the title fixed:
    This chart allows converting an IQ at one age to an absolute measure of intelligence, which then allows reading from the chart the equivalent IQ for that ability at any other age. For instance, a 145 IQ 8year-old has the same raw test score and ability as a 130 IQ 10 y.o. or a 115 IQ 13 y.o.. It also allows sidestepping explanation of many technical issues in psychometrics, while handing them correctly, making it much easier to get across the meaning and implications of scores to parents, teachers and school administrators.

    [See my blog post for links to the WJ-IV Technical Manual and chart PDFs. The following is from the blog post, without re-adding the links:]

    This graph comes from data from the Woodcock-Johnson IV Technical Manual, p. 279-280. (large pdf, link opens in new window.).

    The Woodcock-Johnson is one of the top IQ tests, which uses a Rasch measure of intelligence, called a W-score. (The Stanford-Binet uses the same scale, but calls it “change-sensitive scale”, CSS). Rasch measures are absolute measures of ability, in the same way that lengths are absolute measures of distance – they have a true zero, so one can say this question is 10% harder than that, or equivalently, that one person is 10% more intelligent. The difficulties of questions and the abilities of test-takers are computed all together in a matrix with rows being test-takers and columns being questions, with each matrix entry being 1 if that person got that question right, and 0 if they got it wrong. Using matrix math, difficulties and abilities are computed simultaneously. A bootstrapping procedure can update the matrix with additional questions and test results, giving an ongoing update to test norming. After validating questions (a complex but not arbitrary process), the only free choice in making a Rasch measure is choosing a reference score that sets the scale, which for the W-score and CSS was chosen to make the average, 100 IQ 10.0 year-old’s score 500.

    I’ve made a graph of full test-scale (FSIQ) W-scores vs. age with additional lines for +/- 1 to 3 standard deviations. This allows comparing the absolute intelligence of people with different ages. So a 145 IQ (+3 s.d.) 8-year old can be seen to be best placed with a 130 IQ class of 10-year-olds, or a 115 IQ class of 13-year-olds.

    I’ve found a highly accurate curve fit for W-scores ages 5 to 17:

    W-score = 547- 473/age

    Above 17, the average CSS rises to 520 by age 22 and remains 520-521 through at least age 35. Generally the W-score standard deviation in adulthood is 10.5. In childhood it falls from about 12 ages 5-8, to 9.5 ages 9-17. Assuming an s.d. of 10 is good enough for most calculations, since the s.d. data is quite noisy.


    Update June 5, 2021:

    Here is an improved version:

    And here is a one-page PDF [link omitted] of it which can be scaled without loss of resolution:

    Here are some additional comments on interpreting Rasch scores I wrote in another forum:

    People don’t have direct experience of the ability of others, but they do have memories of being children, less able than they are now. The rate of improvement vs. age is so constant across different levels of rarity of intelligence (IQ) that one can equate a difference in standard deviations to a difference in ages.

    A 1 s.d. difference = 10.5 W-score or CSS points = -15 IQ = the difference in ability between an adult and the ability of same person at age 13
    -1.5 s.d. = -22.5 IQ = age 11
    -2 s.d. = -30 IQ = age 10
    -2.5 s.d. = -37.5 IQ = age 9
    (so ~0.5 adult s.d. = 7.5 IQ points / year around age 10)
    -3 s.d. = -45 IQ = age 8.2

    beyond 3 s.d. difference, the relation becomes so non-linear, and adult recollection of the immense rate of increase of abilities in early childhood so inaccurate that the age comparison is likely to be misleading.

    So a 3 s.d. difference is what can be expected between the brightest and dullest of a representative sample of 15 adults (122.5 to 78.5), and is comparable to the difference between an average adult and an average 8 year old, or to the difference between an adult and the same person at age 8.

    Even bigger differences are found in a typical class of young children. The difference between a top 1 in 40 6.5 y.o. and a bottom 1 in 40 5.5 y.o. is the same as between an average adult and an average 6 year old.

    (The range of abilities in a first grade class is often double the difference between an adult and an 8 year old!)

    • Replies: @res
  204. res says:


    This chart allows converting an IQ at one age to an absolute measure of intelligence, which then allows reading from the chart the equivalent IQ for that ability at any other age. For instance, a 145 IQ 8year-old has the same raw test score and ability as a 130 IQ 10 y.o. or a 115 IQ 13 y.o..

    It would be interesting to use that to do an analysis of how well deviation and ratio IQs match each other at different ages and IQ levels. I’m not sure how to best represent the correspondence visually. Any thoughts?

    Looking closer, it looks like you are using the means and SDs for the General Intellectual Ability part of Table C-1 on pages 279-280 of the WJIV technical manual. I wonder how close to normal that data is (i.e. how accurate the +/- 2 and 3 SD points are). For anyone else looking at that table, the reliability measures are described in Chapter 4 Reliability starting on page 87.

    P.S. We talked about the Woodcock-Johnson test a few years ago in this thread.
    I am happy to see your followup.

    • Replies: @EH
    , @EH
  205. EH says: • Website

    “It would be interesting to use that to do an analysis of how well deviation and ratio IQs match each other at different ages and IQ levels.”

    Here are some functions for W-scores I derived, you should be able to get ratio IQs pretty easily :
    for age in range [5,17]
    WstdDev[age]= 0.003*( age^3 – 22*age^2 + 28*age)+ 13
    (polynomial fit to the smoothed s.d.s)

    W-score[age] = 547-473/age

    W-score [IQ, age] = (IQ – 100)* 15 * WstdDev[age] + W-score[age]

    IQ [W-score, age] = ((W-score – W-score[age])/stdDev[age])*15 + 100

    estAge [W-score, IQ]= 473/(547 – (W-score – (10*((IQ – 100)*15))))
    (approximation assuming constant s.d. of 10 W-score points, inverting the non-monotonic cubic polynomial s.d. fit curve is a pain)

    stdAge = 473/(547 – W-score)
    (=mental age)

    Be sure to verify these before relying on them.

    “I wonder how close to normal that data is…”

    So do I. A fat right tail is pretty much certain, but even a log-normal fit doesn’t explain the 592 top CSS score seen in the SB5 norming sample (according to Deborah Ruf in her Riverside Publlishing Service Bulletin). CSS should be very close to W-score. I’d very much like to know what the real distribution function is in the right tail on a Rasch general intelligence measure, as well as the fluid, crystallized and spatial components that seem to decorrelate at the high end.

    Good to talk to you again, res.

    • Replies: @James Thompson
  206. @EH

    Thanks for this excellent update. I had toyed with doing more on Rasch scales, and then wondered if it might just end up confusing people. However, if one could find a way to do it clearly, then it would get round the strawman that intelligence tests and their derived scores are “arbitrary”. I wonder if we could link it to the arithmetic items? This would let people see at a glance how difficulty increases, and how the success rates go down, as the number and type of required operations increase.

    Anatoly Karlin did a very successful version of this (but not using Rasch scales) in which he showed the percentage of the population in each country who could solve arithmetic problems of increasing complexity. He then linked it to what sorts of innovative work such countries would be able to do.

    Perhaps we could work on a general solution, that is, “items of this difficulty at adult ages must be able to be solved for complex work to be undertaken.”

    • Replies: @res
    , @EH
    , @res
    , @res
  207. res says:
    @James Thompson

    That AK post was excellent. It is daunting to look at how much better the Asian countries did in PISA math than the US, UK, etc.

    It would be useful to extend that analysis to reading. Here is how PISA prioritizes things.

    The PISA 2018 survey focused on reading, with mathematics, science and global competence as minor areas of assessment. PISA 2018 also included an assessment of young people’s financial literacy, which was optional for countries and economies.

    Regarding your

    I wonder if we could link it to the arithmetic items?

    That is an interesting idea in two ways. Doing it for arithmetic items and extending it to map IQ to a combination of reading and math. The arithmetic version seems more straightforward and also maps into AK’s analysis so seems like the best to do first as you observed. The IQ version would map more cleanly into things like Linda Gottfredson’s occupational categories which would also be interesting.

    In the WJIV technical manual pages 284 to 285 (Table C-1 again) have similar numbers for quantitative reasoning (EH used full scale IQ, and number facility is another possibility). Note that the error margins and reliability are a bit worse for QR, but still look good to me (I’d be interested in your opinion, note NF is even worse in that respect).

    Repeating EH’s analysis with the QR numbers seems like a good first step. Then perhaps try to estimate what score corresponds to each PISA level by looking at the US/UK PISA distributions and comparing to the WJ age 15-16 distributions? (I’m assuming those two groups should have similar distributions, any thoughts?)

    That would leave us with the hard part. Your

    Perhaps we could work on a general solution, that is, “items of this difficulty at adult ages must be able to be solved for complex work to be undertaken.”

    Given that you have published papers with Heiner Rindermann on this topic I consider you an expert in this area so would rather hear what you think, but my initial thought (probably obvious) is to break your statement down into some categories.

    1. Items of this difficulty at adult ages must be able to be solved for complex work (of different levels) to be undertaken by an individual.
    2. What percentage of the population needs to satisfy 1. before those different levels of complex work can occur in a given country?
    3. Is 2. more about percentage or total number of people in a country?
    4. How important is the “even smarter fraction”? How big a role does the far tail perform in making complex work effective? Obviously becomes important when looking at groups with different average IQs given how fast the tail decreases.
    5. How big of a role do priorities play in this? If the smart fraction is limited is it more important to do research or make sure your utilities work well? I have a strong bias towards utilities (easier to outsource the research IMHO), but it seems to me developing countries often prioritize differently in an effort to promote glamour projects (e.g. the Nigerian space program).
    6. In the OECD Level 6 is met by about 3% (2% in US) of students. Is that enough ceiling? (I think so?) Is normality assumption a problem? (I am less sure about this?)

    What do you think? Would it be worthwhile for me or EH to do the QR version of the WJ age curves? Then we could see if the distribution mapping is as straightforward as I expect.

    P.S. One bit of trivia I ran across while writing this comment. The modal grade for PISA testing in the UK is grade 11 (one of four countries). For 53 countries 10 is the modal grade, and for 21 countries 9 is the modal grade.

  208. Thanks for your very interesting suggestions.
    I would hold the large countrywide picture for the time being, and concentrate on the absolute measure of intelligence which Rasch scoring may offer us.
    Let’s put together the WJ data in the way you suggest, with levels of difficulty shown in absolute terms. The reason for my suggesting Arithmetic is that it has a logical structure which provides an inherent measure of difficulty. So, we can pit the theoretical level against the observed absolute level. After that, the rest becomes a mopping up operation.

    I will ask Heiner Rindermann to look at your points, and give me some comments. He might want to take it on as a publication with all of us as authors.

  209. EH says: • Website
    @James Thompson

    Yes, that was an interesting Karlin article. It’s surprising what people find hard and what they don’t.

    The WJ-IV technical manual has the best introduction to Rasch statistics I’ve seen (p.44-47), and the best deep dive into the details of IQ test construction, which gives a great deal of context regarding the subtests, subscales, their different W vs. age curves, hierarchical factor structure and sub-test loadings etc.

    One interesting thing I found there was that the test construction relies on the different questions having the same slope in their curves of (probability of being answered correctly) vs. examinee ability, that is, the questions all have the same ability to discriminate between levels of ability, the curves are just shifted up or down the scale. They aren’t crisp step functions at all, where everybody ability below that question’s difficulty fails and everyone above is right, but very soft logistic curves.

    “the difference between an examinee’s ability location and an item’s difficulty location along the
    W scale ( W_(A – D) ) [“_” = subscript] has implications for the examinee’s probability of success on any test item: P_(A – D) = exp[ W_(A – D)/9.1024]/exp[1+ W_(A – D)/9.1024]
    where P_(A – D) is the probability of a correct response associated with a given value of W_(A − D)”

    So is the ability is equal to the difficulty, the probability is 0.5 of getting it right, but +10 W-score points of ability gives 0.75, +20 gives 0.9, and +40 gives 0.99 (0.988). The curve is symmetric, so e.g. (A – D) = -40 gives a 0.01 chance of getting the item right.

    So even (especially) for questions much too hard for someone at the 550 level (~+3s.d.), say a 570 difficulty question, they will still have a 10% chance of success, while an average 520-score person would have only a 0.4% chance, 1/25th as much. (So democracy will reliably get every hard question wrong. Most people have a hard time grasping probabilities, too.)

    Getting back to your point – unfortunately, the tech manual doesn’t give an example set of questions of different levels of difficulty, though starting on p. 96 it gives plots of all the questions’ difficulties by sub-test. Graphs of all the subtest W-scores by cluster vs. age starting p.136 are also informative. The age curves differ dramatically from each other.

    For anything where a mistake would be costly and success must be ensured, a much higher level of ability is needed than the task difficulty. The level of ability needed for complex tasks with many steps will be much higher than the ability needed for any of the steps, as well.

    Good to talk with you again, I’d write more but I’m out of steam for the moment.

    • Replies: @res
  210. EH says: • Website

    I made a table of ratio vs. deviation IQs by age, as low as 125DIQ at age 9 gets to 151RIQ. A 140DIQ at 8 is about a 200RIQ. Overall it’s interesting, but not all that useful. Oddly, age 5 has the best match between the two.

    For placement, being able to get the age equivalents for different levels or ability tracks would be most helpful, I think, e.g. the 90IQ floor “normal” track, top n% “gifted” track, private school with a given average or minimum, etc.

    Anyway, getting tired. Here are updated, somewhat-verified functions:


    for age in range [5,17]:

    WstdDev[age]= 0.003*( age^3 – 22*age^2 + 28*age)+ 13

    Wscore[age] = 547-473/age

    zscore[IQ] = (IQ – 100)/15

    zscore[percentile] = NORMSINV[percentile]
    (use “NORMSINV()” in spreadsheet, divide by 100 if needed so “percentile” is between zero and one)

    Wscore[IQ, age] = zscore[IQ] * WstdDev[age] + Wscore[age]

    Wscore[IQ, age] = ((IQ – 100)/15)*(0.003*( age^3 – 22*age^2 + 28*age)+ 13) + 547 – 473/age

    Wscore[percentile, age] = (NORMSINV(percentile)*(0.003*( age^3 – 22*age^2 + 28*age)+ 13) + 547 – 473/age
    (divide “NORMSINV(percentile)” by 100 if needed so “percentile” is between zero and one)

    IQ[Wscore, age] = ((Wscore – Wscore[age])/stdDev[age])*15 + 100

    mentalAge[Wscore]= 473/(547 – Wscore)

    estAge[Wscore, IQ] = 473/(547 – (Wscore – (10*((IQ – 100)/15))))

    estAge[Wscore, percentile] = 473/(547 – (Wscore – (10*(NORMSINV(percentile)))))
    (If better precision is required, do another iteration using WstdDev[estAge] in place of 10.)

    Ratio IQ[age,IQ] = stdAge[ Wscore[IQ, age] ] / age
    = 100*(473/(547 – (zscore[IQ] * WstdDev[age] + Wscore[age]))]/age)
    = 100*((473/(547 -(((IQ – 100)/15) * (0.003*( age^3 – 22*age^2 + 28*age)+ 13) + (547-473/age))))/age)

    Ratio IQ[age,percentile] = 100*((473/(547 -((NORMSINV(percentile) * (0.003*( age^3 – 22*age^2 + 28*age)+ 13) + (547-473/age))))/age)

    • Replies: @res
  211. We need to gather this together into a common document. Heiner Rindermann is reading these points and will comment later.

    • Replies: @res
  212. res says:
    @James Thompson

    We need to gather this together into a common document.

    R Markdown is great for that. If it is agreeable to everyone. You don’t need to understand R to read the HTML/PDF/Word output (that output flexibility is one of the nice features, good for both presentation and reuse). Adding text to the document or making minor statistical tweaks also don’t need much R. Formatting and more detailed analysis do though. The biggest thing is having a working RStudio environment. Another nice feature is good integration with source control like Git to make fine grained tracking of revision history possible.

    Spreadsheets can work as well (and might be the best way to maintain the data), but I think the ability to separate data from analysis and combine explanatory text with analysis are killer features of R Markdown.

    Heiner Rindermann is reading these points and will comment later.

    Excellent. I look forward to that. Thank you.

  213. res says:

    Thank you so much for doing that and sharing it!

    I made a table of ratio vs. deviation IQs by age, as low as 125DIQ at age 9 gets to 151RIQ. A 140DIQ at 8 is about a 200RIQ. Overall it’s interesting, but not all that useful. Oddly, age 5 has the best match between the two.

    I see two uses.

    1. Provide a more accurate conversion function BY AGE between ratio and deviation IQs (e.g. for interpreting papers presenting one in the context of the other). How is that done now?

    2. (really a variant of 1) Provide a way of interpreting historical high IQ claims (e.g. various people claiming to have tested at X IQ at Y age).

    It would be good to have better longitudinal data to give estimates of how much people vary across their age trajectories. Most of what I see on that is noting correlations between test results at different ages, but that seems to me only to give a notion of unreliability–not a quantitative sense of what are likely trajectories. This comes from me being skeptical of American Mensa taking five year olds. Not to mention two year olds.

    Your age 5 observation is interesting. Anyone have any thoughts on that? It is nonintuitive to me.

    I am concerned that the functional approximations introduce too large an error. For example (you are using General Intellectual Ability on pages 279-280, right?) at age 5 there is a 20% difference between the table and functional SDs. Would it be possible for us to use a table lookup instead? (or maybe a smoothed table?)

    I am not sure how to interpret the jaggedness of the SDs. For example, is the dramatic variation in SDs from ages 8-11 a real feature of development (e.g. differing speeds of maturation make a big difference when the IQ vs. age curve is steep) or just statistical noise? Perhaps check to see how consistent the trends are across the different subtests and composites?

    Also, if we are looking at adults I think we want to account for the increasing SD at ages 18 and 19. A notable feature of the age curves is that at those ages the higher IQ groups keep increasing while the lower IQ groups do not (some actually decrease, but not sure if that is an artifact of non-normality).

    For placement, being able to get the age equivalents for different levels or ability tracks would be most helpful, I think, e.g. the 90IQ floor “normal” track, top n% “gifted” track, private school with a given average or minimum, etc.

    Agreed. I also think a useful subset of that is to get a better sense of how (i.e. when, how many) to most effectively utilize grade skipping.

    P.S. I am planning to do some work in Excel and/or R (e.g. already entered the first few of your functions in Excel to check the discrepancies), but am having trouble sorting out what I should do. I like having an idea of where I am going before I start. Sometimes this is functional, sometimes not ; )

    Simple CSV showing the function/table data next to each other to see the discrepancies after the MORE. I entered your functions in VBA in Excel, but easier to share the numbers directly.


    age,Wscore,Wscore table,WstdDev,WstdDev table
    IQ at age 5,Wscore,,,

    • Replies: @EH
    , @EH
  214. res says:

    For anything where a mistake would be costly and success must be ensured, a much higher level of ability is needed than the task difficulty. The level of ability needed for complex tasks with many steps will be much higher than the ability needed for any of the steps, as well.

    Interesting point. I wonder about the relative importance of ability, attention to detail, and conscientiousness here.

    Also worth thinking about how possible it is for people (both higher and lower ability) to set up frameworks (for themselves and/or others) which improve performance. Checklists being a classic example.

    Thanks for the exposition on test question difficulty. That is helpful.

  215. EH says: • Website

    “Thank you so much for doing that and sharing it!”
    Thanks for finding it interesting enough to work on and discuss.

    “1. Provide a more accurate conversion function BY AGE between ratio and deviation IQs ”

    It’s very important to get people to realize that ratio IQs aren’t at all constant. They work fairly well only for below-average students ages below age 16 (+/- 10 IQ, aside from below age 7, DIQ 65) and are really misleading for above-average students (e.g. age 7-10, IQ 120-135, RIQ averages 30 points more than DIQ). For above-average students, mental age is a more useful measure up to a mental age of 17, after which I think it’s best to switch to an equivalent adult IQ score or rarity.

    Saying: “being in the top 2% of 11 year-olds means he’s smarter in an absolute sense than three-quarters of adults and most university students”- sort of thing should get the idea across even to most school administrators.

    “It would be good to have better longitudinal data to give estimates of how much people vary across their age trajectories. ”

    Absolutely, important insight. There’s a tendency amounting almost to a compulsion to think of the s.d. lines as individual trajectories, though real longitudinal trajectories, if one plotted a few hundred, would likely look like a very bad hair day. A Monte Carlo simulation could work almost as well as real longitudinal data though, at about one-millionth the effort.

    I think the average rate of development (derivative of the average) at a given age is likely to be a better predictor of future scores in the individual case than the slope of the s.d. contour for that age and score. That would require real longitudinal data to determine, though. It wouldn’t be all that big a difference, at least using the smoothed s.d.s, though it could be for young high scores using the actual s.d. data, which is one reason I think the s.d. graph jaggedness is noise.

    Practically, though, I think she smoothed s.d.s will give less problem than the originals; the main thing to keep in mind is that every pupil has not just a score but a velocity of improvement which depends almost solely on 1/age.

    ” I also think a useful subset of that is to get a better sense of how (i.e. when, how many) to most effectively utilize grade skipping.”

    Yes, though I’d like to have a better solution than grade-skipping. It seems like the educational system ought to have figured out a good response to highly gifted pupils, but educrats almost always act like it’s never happened before (and won’t again, it they can help it.)

    But these are literally the wealth and future of the nation, more valuable than all the educrats put together, with most of the teachers thrown into the bargain. Looking at the graph, It looks like 130 IQ students (top 1 in just 44) should be able to handle all the work to get the equivalent of a master’s degree by age 12.

    “I am not sure how to interpret the jaggedness of the SDs.”
    I think it’s pretty much noise, and they’re all likelier to be a bit (some more-than-a-bit) bigger than measured due to limited sample sizes for each age. My main goal in hand-smoothing was to make the giant lumps in the outer s.d. lines go away, equivalent to minimizing the first and 2nd derivatives of the plot of s.d.s . It might be a better idea to put even more error at age 5, so the next two years’ s.d.s aren’t underestimated. At age 5, a few weeks of development is more than all the errors, and the practical effect of errors is least at that age.

    – on exchanging files, getting things into one document: give me an email at firstame.lastname at gmail

    • Replies: @res
  216. EH says: • Website

    Here’s a 1st draft accelerated education program:

    Class track for >=+2 s.d. age 6-12

    The students in the track always have enough ability to ~equal the average of traditional students learning the same material at the same level.

    1st grade = grades 1-5, expected end of year (7 y.o.) W-score = >502
    2nd grade = grades 6-8, expected end of year (8 y.o.) W-score = >510
    3rd grade = grades 9-12, expected end of year (9 y.o.) W-score = >515
    4th grade = AS, expected end of year (10 y.o.) W-score = >520
    5th grade = BS, expected end of year (11 y.o.) W-score = >525
    6th grade = MS, high-level recap, research project(s) expected end of year (12 y.o) W-score = >527
    -> apprenticeship or startup incubator / advanced research
    -> further undergrad or advanced degrees

    Class track for >=+1 s.d. age 7-18 / basically the same, but goes half as fast.

    • Replies: @res
  217. res says:

    Lots to reply to in your two comments. I’ll take this one first since it seems more straightforward.

    That schedule looks daunting to me (especially for “only” +2 SD!). I see how it largely follows from the numbers in your chart though. Some thoughts.

    1. Doing 3 SD as well seems like a useful sanity check. Looks like you would start a year earlier, then top out at age 9. Which would be about twice as fast. Those paces don’t seem reasonable to me, but it might just be broken intuition on my part. As a counterpoint, an average of +1 SD was typical college years ago. How about derating things 1 SD? So +1 SD is “normal college track” and SDs beyond that double the pace? That baseline seems a better match to historical top track trajectories.

    2. Might be good to be a bit more explicit about the thought process for the W-score thresholds (it looks to me like you thought that through pretty well, it’s just that the reasoning is not included). For example, BS looks like about +1 SD at age 17 (average college years ago). Worth thinking about how different environments work now. For example G&T programs or elite colleges where average students are +2 SD.

    3. Developmental variability might be an issue. I think education works better with a cohort (and is much more economically viable that way), but you have children developing at different paces in fits and spurts. This is where the “one room schoolhouse” starts to seem like a good model because with a decent range of students you always have “peers.” It’s just that they might vary depending on subject and stage of development.

    I think what I see as your salient point (there could be a great deal of acceleration) is very much on target though. This exercise has helped make some of the stories you hear about prodigies seem more realistic to me.

    P.S. Email sent.

  218. res says:

    Saying: “being in the top 2% of 11 year-olds means he’s smarter in an absolute sense than three-quarters of adults and most university students”- sort of thing should get the idea across even to most school administrators.

    Yes. Though it might be good to add some nuance where there are big differences in development trajectory by subtest (as you have noted elsewhere). Also good to add some clarity on “university students” (especially now that so many average people are going to college). Many of us live in bubbles so your (true) statements might not map well to the visceral experiences of people in a high achieving bubble.

    A Monte Carlo simulation could work almost as well as real longitudinal data though, at about one-millionth the effort.

    But you need enough data to at least make a stab at how things vary.

    Practically, though, I think she smoothed s.d.s will give less problem than the originals; the main thing to keep in mind is that every pupil has not just a score but a velocity of improvement which depends almost solely on 1/age.

    Isn’t the velocity of improvement proportional to 1 / age^2? The velocity is the derivative of 1/age. I find that realization daunting as well as important to keep in mind.

    But these are literally the wealth and future of the nation, more valuable than all the educrats put together, with most of the teachers thrown into the bargain. Looking at the graph, It looks like 130 IQ students (top 1 in just 44) should be able to handle all the work to get the equivalent of a master’s degree by age 12.

    This gets into your other comment (I am guessing that is where the comment came from). I really don’t know how possible/beneficial such extreme acceleration would be. As one example, consider trying to study literature while lacking many life experiences.

    But it is clear there is much room for improving the education of high ability students. What I worry about is in the US things seem to be getting worse rather than better.

    “I am not sure how to interpret the jaggedness of the SDs.”
    I think it’s pretty much noise, and they’re all likelier to be a bit (some more-than-a-bit) bigger than measured due to limited sample sizes for each age. My main goal in hand-smoothing was to make the giant lumps in the outer s.d. lines go away, equivalent to minimizing the first and 2nd derivatives of the plot of s.d.s . It might be a better idea to put even more error at age 5, so the next two years’ s.d.s aren’t underestimated. At age 5, a few weeks of development is more than all the errors, and the practical effect of errors is least at that age.

    Smoothing seems worthwhile. Even if the age 8-11 SD behavior is real developmentally it mostly just adds confusion. And it seems almost certain the age 14-18 behavior is noise. Speaking of age 5, it looks to me like your actual vs. smoothed SD plot has the wrong SD for age 5 (about 10.5 vs. 14.57). Would that throw off your curve fit?

    The age 20-29 SD bothers me the most. It has the largest n and is 10% smaller than both 19 and 30-39.

    P.S. This discussion is driving home to me how students really can be smarter (in an absolute sense) than teachers at a surprisingly early age. Not sure if it would have been good to know that then. Would it have caused more understanding or more of a tendency to be an arrogant little snot?

    • Replies: @EH
  219. res says:
    @James Thompson

    Here are the WJIV Quantitative Reasoning data from Table C1 in a CSV file after the MORE. I added two columns. Age numeric changes ranges to their midpoint (e.g. 20-29 becomes 25) for numeric analysis and Mdiff is the year to year difference of means.

    The age 15 and 16 means are only 3.4 and 1.8 points different from 20-29 (SD around 15) so I’m not sure how useful it is to adjust for ages.


    Age bin,Age numeric,n,M,SD,rcc,SEMW,SEMSS,Mdiff
    20–29 ,25,759.00,518.58,15.02,0.90,4.75,4.74,0.75
    30–39 ,35,492.00,516.06,17.00,0.94,4.16,3.67,-2.52
    40–49 ,45,462.00,511.92,17.95,0.95,4.01,3.35,-4.14
    50–59 ,55,274.00,510.72,16.69,0.94,4.09,3.67,-1.20
    60–69 ,65,164.00,507.50,17.49,0.94,4.28,3.67,-3.22
    70–79 ,75,132.00,502.71,16.02,0.96,3.20,3.00,-4.79
    80+ ,85,118.00,495.12,20.36,0.96,4.07,3.00,-7.59

  220. res says:
    @James Thompson

    PISA math data from AK’s post as CSV after the MORE. Plus some additions described below.

    Using the OECD results with no age adjustment
    OECD average,92%,77%,55%,31%,13%,3%

    We can infer difficulty levels for each PISA math question Level 1-6. This would be for quantitative reasoning on an IQ scale with mean/SD 100/15. Here is the Excel version:
    =NORMSINV(1-Value) * 15 + 100
    That gives the following thresholds.
    78.9 88.9 98.1 107.4 116.9 128.2

    Looks to me like they chose the levels rather carefully.

    Next I used those estimated thresholds along with the passing percentage for each question/country to estimate country ability at that level. This does not work for cases reported as 0% and has other rounding issues. But I think using the six estimates together provides a decent idea of the relative average ability for the country and also gives some hints about the shape of the ability distribution for the country (e.g. is the smart fraction especially un/able?).

    Here is the Excel equation:
    =-NORMSINV(1-Value) * 15 + Inferred IQ threshold for question

    I added those results to the CSV below. Which makes it more cumbersome, but easier to discuss some of the results if anyone wants to load that file into a spreadsheet.

    Next I added three columns for Level 6/5/4 inferred ability – Level 1 inferred ability. These are intended to measure the relative performance of the smart fraction vs. the bottom group. Positive values indicate the smart fraction performed better, negative values indicate the bottom group did relatively better (perhaps better education system for the masses and/or more homogenous population?). Some example countries.

    More able smart fraction: 6-1, 5-1, 4-1
    Belgium 3.8 2.7 2.6
    Shanghai 7.0 5.0 4.2
    Singapore 5.3 3.4 2.3
    Taiwan 9.3 6.7 4.9

    More consistent performance: 6-1, 5-1, 4-1
    Kazakhstan #NUM! -13.1 -11.0
    Latvia -6.2 -7.8 -5.8
    Spain -6.7 -4.2 -2.2
    Vietnam -3.2 -5.2 -3.5

    Is this useful? Can you think of good ways to extend or redirect this analysis? One possibility is to compare countries with similar average abilities and opposite smart-bottom results. I think the smart-bottom variable could be useful because it is orthogonal to average ability (contrast smart fraction which is highly correlated with average).


    Country,Level 1,Level 2,Level 3,Level 4,Level 5,Level 6,Level 1 inferred ability,Level 2 inferred ability,Level 3 inferred ability,Level 4 inferred ability,Level 5 inferred ability,Level 6 inferred ability,Level 6 – Level 1 inferred ability,Level 5 – Level 1 inferred ability,Level 4 – Level 1 inferred ability
    Costa Rica,76%,40%,13%,3%,1%,0%,89.5,85.1,81.2,79.2,82.0,#NUM!,#NUM!,-7.5,-10.3
    Hong Kong,97%,92%,80%,60%,34%,12%,107.1,110.0,110.7,111.2,110.7,110.6,3.5,3.6,4.1
    New Zealand,93%,77%,56%,33%,15%,5%,101.1,100.0,100.4,100.8,101.3,103.5,2.5,0.3,-0.2
    OECD average,92%,77%,55%,31%,13%,3%,100.0,100.0,100.0,100.0,100.0,100.0,0.0,0.0,0.0
    Inferred OECD IQ threshold,78.9,88.9,98.1,107.4,116.9,128.2,,,,,,,,,

  221. EH says: • Website

    Thanks for your long answers; brief 1st reply below:

    “Isn’t the velocity of improvement proportional to 1 / age^2? ”
    Yes, at first I was going to day ” depends only on age”, then “corrected” it.

    ” it looks to me like your actual vs. smoothed SD plot has the wrong SD for age 5 (about 10.5 vs. 14.57). Would that throw off your curve fit?”
    AAARGH! The value for age 10 somehow got into the age-5 box at the beginning. I’m correcting it, but it will take a little while because of all that depends on it – scale changes, re-smoothing the s.d. line, inset graph, etc.. Some of the equations will need fixing, too of course, but it lets a 2nd order polynomial fit well, so they will be simpler.

  222. This is great stuff, and we need to pull it together. Would Google docs be the simplest first step?

    • Replies: @res
  223. res says:
    @James Thompson

    That seems good. I’m trying to figure out how to keep myself anonymous to the world at large though. I don’t mind select people knowing who I am, but I post on some rather controversial topics on the Unz Review and would like to avoid being doxxed.

    On a more positive note. The PISA 2015 data is available at finer resolution than AK posted. Here are math results by level giving tenths of a percent (and SEs giving hundredths). Note Excel downloads available at these links.

    There are still results at the higher levels rounding to zero, but I think ignoring situations where less than 0.05% of the population passes a level is much more reasonable than ignoring 0.5% or less. And the additional resolution should help make the higher level inferred abilities more accurate.

    It might be better to use country average results as a baseline and then compute the differences in inferred ability for each level. That would be more purely orthogonal to the average score and I think the averaging would mean a less noisy baseline.

    They also have average score differences by country for males and females at

    Perhaps the best thing to do is download all of the 2015 math tables and figures in one file from this page.

    Table 7 gives quartile scores for each country which provide another way of looking at this. It should be easy to compute inferred ability for those values based on the OECD distribution. Also allows another check on normality for each area.

    Should be able to find similar data for the other PISA years, but it does not seem to be packaged as nicely and I don’t have time to dig right now.

  224. Of course you can remain anonymous, and it probably makes sense in today’s academic climate. We don’t need to know everyone’s name, but I would like to acknowledge who did the work, even if we have to use pseudonyms. Agree that we need the finer detail you have obtained. I am not a good project manager, so I wonder if you would mind leading.

    • Replies: @res
  225. res says:
    @James Thompson

    I can try ; ) How good a sense do you have of where you see this going?

    Does a focus on PISA as the data source make sense? Will it be sufficient for our goals? In Heiner Rindermann’s book he looks at PISA (among many other metrics). It looks to me like the following are true.
    1. He has finer grained data than are commonly available (e.g. Italian regional data).
    2. His database goes through PISA 2012, but there is some discussion of 2015.
    3. He works with both the PISA scores (SASQ) and IQ transforms (SAS IQ and SAS IQ corrected).
    4. He does analysis of immigrant (by original and destination country) results. Not sure of the source of this PISA data.

    Here is the description of the score scales.

    Student assessment studies were first standardised in the usual SAS scale (‘SASQ’) with M = 500 and SD = 100 representing the past mean of above average, overwhelmingly ‘First World’ countries and the individual differences deviation within them. Finally, we have put them on the conventional IQ scale, with UK natives on 100 IQ points (Greenwich norm, UK average is 99.60 IQ, UK migrant average 96.94).

    A description of the IQ corrections.

    The age- and school-attendance-corrections in SAS for developing countries are –4.86 IQ, for developed –0.46 IQ (dataare always restandardised). E.g. for sub-Saharan Africa –7.28 IQ, for Scandinavia +0.10 IQ, for Western Europe –0.28 IQ, for Southern Europe –1.56 IQ.

    My sense is (please correct me if wrong) we are revisiting and trying to extend the work in your 2009 paper.

    In that paper you focused on the 95th percentile. Some big differences I see with the PISA 2015 data are:
    1. Level meeting percentages give a look at how many in a country are at multiple thresholds rather than just the 95% point. That seems useful.
    2. Level 6 math is around 2.3% in the OECD so a higher threshold for most countries.

    My initial thought is to essentially repeat that analysis (e.g. Figure 3) only rather than using cognitive ability mean and 95% as input variables try using these sets of variables.
    1. CA mean, Level 1 inferred CA – CA mean, Level 6 inferred CA – CA mean
    2. CA mean, Level 2 inferred CA – CA mean, Level 5 inferred CA – CA mean
    3. CA mean, 5% CA – CA mean, 95% CA – CA mean
    4. CA mean, 10% CA – CA mean, 90% CA – CA mean

    The idea being to try to compare
    1. The importance of the high/low/middle group to achievement
    2. Which thresholds are most informative (both type as level/% and degree of selectivity)

    A first step which I should be able to do is to use the Table M2 level data along with the Table M1 averages to create the following variables and check their correlations.
    CA mean, Level 1/2/3/4/5/6 CA – CA mean

    Can also use Table M1b to calculate the 10/90 percentiles for each country.

    My thinking is a good way to start this is take the full PISA 2015 mathematics spreadsheet and add new sheets. Once I have those new variables I will probably take them over to R to do further analysis. For example, a correlation matrix visualization.

    What do you think?

    One other thing, PISA-D (PISA for Development) has additional data.
    See reporting tables at the bottom left.

    I see the following of particular interest. There is much more. Note that there are 324 tables in all! See the TOC in the first sheet.

    Table 9 Reading level 1 split into three subgroups and exact score thresholds for all levels
    Table 10 Reading mean/SD and 5/10/25/50/75/90/95 percentiles
    Table 11 Reading mean and 10/50/90 percentiles by sex
    Table 17 non/immigrant reading
    Table 26 interesting analysis of total/within/between school reading variance
    Table 30 Math level 1 split into three subgroups and exact score thresholds for all levels
    Table 31 Math mean/SD and 5/10/25/50/75/90/95 percentiles
    Table 32 Math mean and 10/50/90 percentiles by sex (interesting results for a number of countries here where 10th percentile girls do better than boys, but the reverse at the 90th percentile)
    Table 38 non/immigrant math
    Table 47 interesting analysis of total/within/between school math variance

    I stopped there, but there is MUCH more. It looks to me like Tables 30 and 31 are the best starting data sources. In particular, I think there is enough data there to get a pretty good look at normality for most of the countries (all but the really high achievers where you can’t see the right tail above 95%). I am thinking Q-Q Plots are the right way to look at that.
    Not sure how to do that without the raw data, but seems like it should not be that hard. Probably just turn each score/percentage pair into a pair of Z scores and plot.

    New plan is to subset out the math portion of the PISA-D spreadsheet and add to Tables 30 and 31.

    P.S. Some random notes. Here is HR’s take on age scaling in his book. Might be worth looking at this in light of the WJIV data.

    Students in grade studies (TIMSS, PIRLS) vary in age. With age intelligence matures and children have had more time to learn. Therefore, countries with older students need a down correction and countries with younger students an up correction. For each age year we took 14 SASQ or 2.1 IQ.

    P.P.S. I misread Table M7 before (I was in a hurry). That is not score quartiles. It is quartiles of an SES metric. But we have score quartiles and more from PISA-D.

    • Replies: @EH
    , @res
    , @res
  226. EH says: • Website

    Sorry I haven’t been checking my email over the past few days, other than to let you know you had the right email address. I’ve been preoccupied with another nasty fight on the Triple 9 Society forum, 3rd go-around in four months — most of the principal officers of the society are ganging up to bring sanctions against anyone objecting too vigorously to genocidal policies such as antinatalism or the attempt to deny the existence of the Anglo-Saxons.

    Referring to a still-anonymous person who flags posts with which they disagree as a “prissy coward”, however, is apparently beyond the pale for them, though I haven’t been accused of being at risk for committing violence like the fellow who suggested that the antinatalists want to metaphorically “strangle us all in our cribs” or words to that effect. The latter got a full pile-on from the TNS officers.

    The “woke” politics is just off the scale, mostly from older members, too. The comments there are seldom better than those of the worst handful of posters here at Unz. Their example has convinced me, though, that IQ is not the be-all and end all. As director Jody Foster had the older boy tell the younger prodigy protagonist in Little Man Tate: “It isn’t the size of a guy’s IQ that matters, but how he uses it.” When put to use rationalizing lies and arguing that worse is better, more brainpower is a bad thing.

    • Replies: @res
  227. res says:

    I have been away from the computer for the last couple of days too (I did get your email, but have not responded yet). I’m still tired from yesterday so not sure how much I’ll get to today.

    Thanks for your perspective on the TNS. I hear a fair bit about Mensa and its members/politics, but not much about the TNS (probably has something to do with 1/20th the number of people being eligible). I have considered joining various groups over the years, but never done it. The one common criticism of Mensa is it is overfull of people with a high IQ who haven’t accomplished much (relates to not having other outlets for their intellect through work and peers IMHO) and are bitter as a result (hard to know how much of that is reality vs. envy though). What is the TNS like in that respect?

    Definitely agree about “IQ is not the be-all and end all.” It is an awfully useful tool though ; )

    One thing, are your critics using rhetoric more aggressive than “prissy coward” in coming after you? The blatant hypocrisy is probably the thing that angers me the most about the wokeists. Steve Sailer’s who, whom? is all too descriptive of Current Year reality.

  228. res says:

    (I would appreciate feedback on the final paragraph. Thank you all.)

    I think this description of PISA data scaling from the Wikipedia page is worth highlighting.

    From the beginning, PISA has been designed with one particular method of data analysis in mind. Since students work on different test booklets, raw scores must be ‘scaled’ to allow meaningful comparisons. Scores are thus scaled so that the OECD average in each domain (mathematics, reading and science) is 500 and the standard deviation is 100.[23] This is true only for the initial PISA cycle when the scale was first introduced, though, subsequent cycles are linked to the previous cycles through IRT scale linking methods.[24]

    This generation of proficiency estimates is done using a latent regression extension of the Rasch model, a model of item response theory (IRT), also known as conditioning model or population model. The proficiency estimates are provided in the form of so-called plausible values, which allow unbiased estimates of differences between groups. The latent regression, together with the use of a Gaussian prior probability distribution of student competencies allows estimation of the proficiency distributions of groups of participating students.[25] The scaling and conditioning procedures are described in nearly identical terms in the Technical Reports of PISA 2000, 2003, 2006. NAEP and TIMSS use similar scaling methods.

    That page has nice tables of scores by country and year for each subtest (no SDs though). I wonder how much of the score decreases (for most countries) over time can be attributed to:
    1. Immigration
    2. Ability of natives
    3. Education

    Any thoughts? Combining PISA data on non/immigrant results along with other data on immigrant proportions would probably give a good cut at assessing 1.

    Looking at the 2015 math results we see the OECD with mean/SD of 490/89. Compared to the 500/100 2003 baseline (reading and science use a 2000 baseline) that would indicate a dramatic drop in far right tail ability (43 points at +3 SD, or about half of the 2015 SD!). I wonder if we see that in the 95th percentile OECD numbers.

    I downloaded the LO.PISA.MAT.P95 indicator data.
    But it was disappointing in that it only had 2018 data for the OECD (I wonder why!).

    P.S. The difference in frequency between 3 and 3.5 SD is from 1 in 370 to 1 in 2149. And it just gets worse as you go higher.

    P.P.S. Here is the 426 page 2003 PISA technical report. Chapter 9 on pages 119-134 covers data scaling.
    Chapter 9 available standalone at
    Much of that is beyond me (I don’t have the background in IRT. Dr. Thompson and EH may do better.).
    The per country item reports 1-6 described sound interesting, but I don’t know where to find them.

    This 2018 PISA-D report has an interesting table 12.7 (also see Figure 12.11) showing number of math items at each level.
    If I read that correctly, 2018 had significantly fewer items in levels 3-6 (at level 6 1.6% of items in 2018 vs. 13.1% in 2015!). Could someone double check that, please? If I am understanding it correctly that might indicate we should focus on 2015 for looking at the right tail.

  229. res says:

    I combined these two tables from the 2015 PISA-D data into a single sheet.

    Table 30 Math level 1 split into three subgroups and exact score thresholds for all levels
    Table 31 Math mean/SD and 5/10/25/50/75/90/95 percentiles

    It turns out those tables have even more resolution than I realized (the formatting limits the resolution displayed). So we can see that Senegal has 0.003% (about 1 in 30,000) who meet the Level 6 score threshold of 669.30.

    This gives us the following per country.

    – Mean and SD
    – 5/10/25/50/75/90/95 percentile scores
    – Level 1c/1b/1a/2/3/4/5/6 scores and percentiles

    So for each country (and various aggregates, like the OECD) we have the nominal normal distribution along with 15 score/percentile pairs. That is enough to take a look at the normality assumption for many countries, but fails at the right tail for places like Singapore (13% Level 6, though 95% score helps there) and the OECD (2.3%).

    I have some ideas for what to do with this data, but am interested in more.

    – Create Q-Q plots for each country. At each known score/percentile point calculate the normal Z score for the score vs. the Z score corresponding to the percentile and plot them against each other.

    – Plot cumulative percentage vs. score curves for each country (probably worth doing version which expands the right tails as well, maybe log % exceeding threshold?). Use those to compare countries, regions, and calculated distributions by 500/100 norm, current OECD, etc.

    – Assuming scores are reasonably normal, plot different distributions together for comparison.

    – Create high/low/average differentials as discussed in earlier comments.

    As a sample, Consider the 2015 OECD results of mean/SD 490.2/89.5 along with the 95th percentile of 634 and Level 6 score/% of 669.30/2.3

    Converting those to Z scores and calculating implied (by normal assumption) percentiles we see:

    Score | Z score | implied % | actual %
    634 | 1.6 | 5.5% | 5%
    669.3 | 2.0 | 2.3% | 2.3%

    So looks fairly normal (odd deficiency in Z=1.6-2.0 region) at that level. Really need to look at the rest of the distribution.

    I wonder if there is any way of getting PISA information past +2 SD for the developed countries.

    This data seems wonderful for looking at the small absolutely smart fractions in poor performing countries. Is there any issue with missing high performers (say because in tutoring or private school which is not covered, or in school abroad)?

    This document has 2015 versions of the math item level information in Table 12.9 and Figure 12.7.
    Note that it indicates 3 math items between 750 and 850.

    This article from Dr. Thompson about the 2015 PISA test is a useful reference and has some good cautions.
    Did that the unpublished paper from Heiner Rindermann ever make it to print?

    P.S. This document has some discussion of longitudinal analysis in the context of PISA. May be relevant to Rasch score discussion above.

    P.P.S. The woke take on PISA. At least there is some pushback in the comments.

  230. I doubt that I will be able to get to this properly until tomorrow, but I think we may have to have a discussion/Zoom about our general approach.
    I am very keen on finding the Smart Fraction in each country, and calculating it as precisely as possible in actual population numbers.

    The final output of our joint work could be to link illustrative question items to levels of intellect in each country: Anatoly Karlin’s approach on a more detailed level with more examples, and applied to all countries on which we have reasonable data.

    • Replies: @res
    , @res
    , @Some Guy
  231. res says:
    @James Thompson

    I doubt that I will be able to get to this properly until tomorrow, but I think we may have to have a discussion/Zoom about our general approach.

    Sounds reasonable. Not sure how much would make sense to try to take care of in email first.

    I am very keen on finding the Smart Fraction in each country, and calculating it as precisely as possible in actual population numbers.

    Sounds like a good top level mission statement. Thanks. Are you thinking in terms of number of people meeting one or more score thresholds or something different? Are we focusing on maths only or do you want to cover other areas as well? For accuracy are we going to want to do HR style corrections based on who took the test?

    One thing I was wondering about is whether PISA is somehow missing elites in developing countries (see earlier comment about tutoring, etc.). For Zambia I see 1 in 25,000 (about +4SD) meeting Level 4 and 0 reported for Level 5. They have about 3 million in primary education so say 500k per annual cohort. Which would imply about 20 per year at Level 4. Not sure that is sufficient to explain people like Chanda Chisala.

    The final output of our joint work could be to link illustrative question items to levels of intellect in each country: Anatoly Karlin’s approach on a more detailed level with more examples, and applied to all countries on which we have reasonable data.

    Thanks for the clear statement of that goal. Regarding country analysis, any thoughts on breadth vs. depth? Most of what we have talked about so far is looking at results for all countries, but if I understand correctly the per country item reports (Reports 1-6 mentioned above, no idea about their availability) would offer a wealth of detail along those lines. My thinking would be to emphasize the broad data, but maybe do a deep dive into a few countries if we can get those reports. I think those reports would help with creating informative examples, but hard to be sure without seeing them.

    The same place where AK got his sample test has mathematics questions used in 2012, 2006, and 2003.

    This link has overall response rates for the 2012 questions, but hard to interpret in terms of levels.

    This document looks at the relative strengths and weaknesses of the US vs. the OECD average for 2012 PISA mathematics on a per question basis.

    Notice the way they divide questions along two axes.
    Content: Change and relationships, Quantity, Space and shape, Uncertainty and data
    Process: Employ, Formulate, Interpret
    Not sure if that is of any value to us.

    This document gives solution rates for the US, OECD, Canada, Germany, Netherlands, Korea, and Shanghai-China along with the content and process categories for each 2012 PISA mathematics item.
    The hardest question (2.26% correct in the US) was a variant of the revolving door question: PM995Q02
    And here is a reference you can search by item code to get question details.

    This 334 page 2014 book is overkill and nothing leapt out at me in a quick glance, but might be useful.
    Assessing Mathematical Literacy
    The PISA Experience

    Table 4.6 has a mapping of the 2012 items to US Common Core Standards which might provide an interesting way to characterize items.

    I think I linked this document above (or a file including this chapter), but it is worth highlighting because it looks extremely useful.
    Proficiency Scale Construction

    It includes a detailed description of the levels. It also includes Figure 15.3 with a table of 28 selected items. Here is the entry for the hardest mentioned above (omitting process and content info).

    Item Code | Item Name| Item difficultiy on PISA scale | Description of item demand
    PM995Q02 | Revolving Door Q2 | 840.3 | Apply knowledge of circle geometry and reasoning to interpret a given geometric model and to formulate it mathematically enabling
    a solution

    Note that item difficulty of 840.3 (which would be +3.4 SD on the 2003 scale if I understand correctly). That seems absurd to me if 2.3% got it right in the US.

    It might be helpful to try to find the source of that data and get it for all of the items.

  232. res says:
    @James Thompson

    One other thought. How concerned do we want to be with the changes across time? That seems like an important issue to me, and 2003-2018 (every 3 years) gives a decent basis for looking at trends if they exist. Could look at a variety of variables here. Raw averages and the number of people in the smart fraction (as we are discussing) seem like two obvious choices.

    In terms of mapping all of this to country accomplishment, is there any adjustment needed since we are looking at current 15 year olds and the accomplishment is both lagged and driven by adults? Seems like this would be more of an issue with developing countries. One trend hypothesis I am interested in testing is the idea that we might be seeing positive trends in (some) developing countries and negative trends in (some) developed countries at the same time.

    • Replies: @James Thompson
  233. @res

    Trend data is always preferable. It shows whether results are stable (favouring genetic and/or long established cultural factors) or unstable, (favouring recent cultural events, improvements in education system, or collapse of empires).
    However, to keep things snappy, 15 year olds, or 17 year old if available is fine. We just assume that they grow up to be adults but with similar levels of ability.

    • Replies: @res
  234. Some Guy says:
    @James Thompson

    I am very keen on finding the Smart Fraction in each country, and calculating it as precisely as possible in actual population numbers.

    I haven’t read the whole thread so I don’t know exactly what you guys are doing, but just in case you don’t know about the PIAAC database I thought I’d chime in and inform you that it covers the whole population age 16 to 65 for OECD countries plus some others, if that’s useful to you.

    I did a rough estimate of smart fraction numbers using PIAAC in a comment a while back:

    Anatoly Karlin used it to compare old and young in different countries:

    • Replies: @res
  235. res says:
    @Some Guy

    Thanks! The data explorer link also has entries for “ALL 2003” and “IALS 1994”. Do you know anything about those? They would provide a nice spread across time if comparable.

    Your second AK link mentions the next PIAAC was to be in 2020. It looks like it has been pushed back so the results will not be available until 2024.

    Here is the list of countries for the second cycle.

    Australia, Austria, Belgium (Flanders), Canada, Chile, Croatia, Czech Republic, Denmark, Estonia, Finland, France, Germany, Hungary, Ireland, Israel, Italy, Japan, Korea, Latvia, Lithuania, Netherlands, New Zealand, Norway, Poland, Portugal, Russian Federation, Singapore, Slovak Republic, Spain, Sweden, Switzerland, United Kingdom (England), United States

    If anyone is interested it looks like you can take a similar online assessment.

    • Replies: @Some Guy
  236. Some Guy says:

    That the old ones don’t cover as many countries and subjects is about all I know.

  237. Anzelo says:

    Overcomplicating again, you spend your whole life doing that. You think your life do not worth more than this? You dont like an immigrant, KICK. Strong kick. What else do you need? You can hug them before strong kick if you want to feel like a good person. Unbelievable, too much soy probably, do not eat more soy.

  238. res says:
    @James Thompson

    Hello Dr. Thompson, Is your UCL email (used on some of your papers) still valid?

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