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I don’t usually comment on crime figures, because so many others have done that in full detail before, but my eye was drawn to the BBC News, the major source for most UK citizens, and so well funded by a government levy that it the resources sufficient t have a dominant effect on how British people see the world. They have an online “Full Story” entitled:

Kyle Rittenhouse: Who is US teen accused of Kenosha Wisconsin protest murders?

https://www.bbc.co.uk/news/world-us-canada-53934109

This gives an account of the event, and there are three links offered within the story to provide context:

 Three facts about African-Americans and criminal justice
 ‘Black people have been through a lot this year’
 This police-free protest zone was dismantled – but was it the end?

I like facts, so I clicked on the first of those three links, which led me to a 1 June article entitled:

George Floyd: How are African-Americans treated under the law?

https://www.bbc.co.uk/news/world-us-canada-52877678

The three facts chosen were:
1) African-Americans are more likely to be fatally shot by Police;
2) African-Americans are arrested for drug abuse at a much higher rate than white Americans, although surveys show drug use at similar levels;
3) more African-Americans are imprisoned.

These three facts were illustrated by the three histograms reproduced below.

Any UK citizen reading the article would understandably conclude that African-Americans are being very unfairly treated. Police shoot them more often, they get arrested for drug use more often, and are put in prison more often, probably for drug use. As far as the BBC is concerned, those three facts sum up what you need to know. There is no mention of any racial differences in any criminal behaviour. I thought it worth checking a few publicly available sources of data to find out more. This is only a brief look, and others have spent much more time on the topic, but it illustrates what anyone can find out with a bit of searching.

Crime statistics require a full and balanced account of the relevant facts. One way to start is by looking at what citizens report to independent researchers who contact them through random sampling. Much crime goes unreported to the Police, because citizens either put up with it, or judge that the chances of the assailant getting caught are so low that reporting is not worth it. Only 43% of such crimes are reported to Police, and possibly those are the most serious ones.

The Bureau of Justice Statistics are an excellent source of real data. They do surveys of victimization in the community (National Crime Victimization Survey) which is unaffected by any presumed Police biases, and includes crimes reported and not reported. The Bureau statistics also measure the actual crimes reported to the police (Uniform Crime Reporting). Unfortunately, the two methods are somewhat different, in that the victimization survey does not include murder, but the UCR does, whilst not including sexual assault, which the survey includes. Victimization (NCVS) shows Hispanics as a separate category, UCR lumps them in with Whites. Irritating.

These are the 2018 figures.

https://www.bjs.gov/index.cfm?ty=dcdetail&iid=245

The Bureau of Justice Statistics’ (BJS) National Crime Victimization Survey (NCVS) is the nation’s primary source of information on criminal victimization. Each year, data are obtained from a nationally representative sample of about 240,000 interviews on criminal victimization, involving 160,000 unique persons in about 95,000 households. Persons are interviewed on the frequency, characteristics, and consequences of criminal victimization in the United States. The NCVS collects information on nonfatal personal crimes (i.e., rape or sexual assault, robbery, aggravated and simple assault, and personal larceny) and household property crimes (i.e., burglary/trespassing, motor-vehicle theft, and other types of theft) both reported and not reported to police. Survey respondents provide information about themselves (e.g., age, sex, race and Hispanic origin, marital status, education level, and income) and whether they experienced a victimization. For each victimization incident, the NCVS collects information about the offender (e.g., age, race and Hispanic origin, sex, and victim-offender relationship), characteristics of the crime (e.g., time and place of occurrence, use of weapons, nature of injury, and economic consequences), whether the crime was reported to police, reasons the crime was or was not reported, and victim experiences with the criminal justice system.

The report is cautiously written, and this will be a brief summary only, but here are some of the findings: The number of violent incidents increased from 5.2 million in 2017 to 6.0 million in 2018. The rate of rape or sexual assault increased from 1.4 victimizations per 1,000 persons age 12 or older in 2017, to 2.7 per 1,000 in 2018. The portion of white persons age 12 or older who were victims of violent crime increased from 0.96% in 2015 to 1.19% in 2018 (up 24%), while the portion of males who were victims increased from 0.94% to 1.21% (up 29%). 1.18% of the population over 12 years of age experienced victimization.

Table 12 sets out the relevant figures. What citizens report to researchers shows that Asians, Hispanics and Whites are more likely to be victims than perpetrators. This is shown in column 7. Asians at 0.6 and Whites at 0.8 are victims, Hispanics at 1.0 equal, and Blacks at 2.0 are twice as likely to be offenders.

The offender-to-population percentage ratio is shown in column 8 of the table. Blacks are 1.8 times more likely to offend than their population numbers would suggest.

Table 14 shows who is doing what to whom:

On the contentious Black/White matter, Blacks attack Whites at a higher rate (15.3%) than Whites attack Blacks (10.6%).

Using victimization data, not arrests, the picture is as follows (includes Table 15 data):

Asians: 0.76% offend, 1.45% are victims, 75.9% of them at the hands of other races.
Whites: 1.56% offend. 2.31% are victims, 37.9% of them at the hands of other races.
Hispanics: 1.63% offend, 1.76% are victims, 54.6% of them at the hands of other races.
Blacks: 3.5% offend. 1.95% are victims, 29.7% of them at the hands of other races.

Asians are inoffensive citizens, very much net victims, very much getting attacked by others.

Whites offend more than Asians, but are net victims, also getting attacked by others.

Hispanics offend at the White level, are fractionally more victim than offender, and get attacked by others.

Blacks offend very much more, are net offenders, and are the least attacked by others.

On these figures, Police should be searching for black suspects proportionately more often.

Here are the Offender-Victim raw figure comparisons from Table 12

Asians 131,120 – 249,960 = 118,840 net victims
Hispanic 767,560 – 825,520 = 57,960 net victims
Whites 2,669,900 – 3,957,720 = 1,287,820 net victims
Blacks 1,155,670 – 644,710 = 510,960 net offenders

Every victim will form an opinion about the offenders. Every victim’s family and friends will get to hear about the race of the offender. Any rational Police service will search for the offenders as described by citizens. As a consequence, the Police will have to apprehend more of one racial group than another.

A reasonable measure of Police activity would be how successful they are in tracking down and apprehending offenders (whatever their race) and any reasonable justice system should be sentencing people in line with their offences (whatever their race). It is futile and misleading to keep comparing Police figures to population proportions when criminal behaviour is not equally prevalent in different racial groups. The “equal criminality hypothesis” has been shown to be wrong, so the requirement for “equal justice outcomes” in terms of population proportions will be similarly wrong.

All these matters have been covered by others, but it seems these findings need to be repeated. Arrest rates are disparaged by some as being biased, but one way of evaluating arrest statistics is to see whether they are proportionate to what citizens report in the Victimization Survey. Arrests should be raised below population expectations in the case of Blacks, and be lower for other racial categories. Homicide arrests show a big effect because homicides are most likely to be reported to the Police. Since the black-white arrest rate is the main matter of contention, these are compared below.

The next results are drawn from the Uniform Crime Reporting program. Whereas in the victimization study Whites and Hispanics are shown in different categories, in UCR they are lumped together as White, which downplays differences with the White results, so a rough estimate only.

For brevity, on the equal criminality hypothesis, for each crime the Black rate should be 12% of arrests (Table 12 for population figures). On the basis of victim reports, on the other hand, they should be 2.5 times higher. For more serious crimes the multiple may be higher. Here are the Black arrest percentages for each category of crime, and how many times they are higher than expected.

Murder 53% 4.4 times higher
Rape: 28.6% 2.4 times higher
Robbery: 54 % 4.5 times higher
Aggravated assault: 34% 2.8 times higher
Burglary: 29% 2.4 times higher
Larceny/theft 30% 2.5 times higher
Motor vehicle theft 32% 2.7 times higher
Arson 25% 2.1 times higher
Violent crime 37% 3.1 times higher
Property crime 30% 2.5 times higher

Arrest rates are consistent with what members of the public report about their assailants. They are at least 2.1 times higher, and usually more than that. For the most violent of crimes, the arrest rate differences from population expectation are even higher. Overall, arrests appear to be proportionate.

Finally, absolute levels of arrests for murder are informative, because they allow comparisons with countries of origin, so long as the data from those countries are sufficiently reliable.

https://worldpopulationreview.com/country-rankings/murder-rate-by-country

The White arrest rate for murder is 3,953/171,493,180 which is .000023 or 2.3 per 100,000.

Countries close to that range are:

The United Kingdom is 1.2, lower than White Americans, but there are many countries lower than that, many of them Asian.

The Black arrest rate for murder is 4,778/33,132,390 which is .00014421 or 14.42 per 100,000 (This is 6.3 times higher than the White/Hispanic level).

Countries in that range are:

The Asian rate is 0.55 per 100,000

The United States homicide rate is given as 5.35 per 100,000. This would appear to be a composite of different rates between racial groups.

 

If I had to choose 3 facts to illustrate how African-Americans are treated under the law, they would be:

1) Based on victim accounts, African Americans have a high rate of offending, and should be the subject of more Police arrests and Court appearances. All subsequent statistics must take this into account if justice is to be observed.
2) Arrest statistics are broadly in line with victim accounts.
3) Higher imprisonment arises from higher rates of offending by different races, broadly comparable with those in their countries of origin.

 
• Category: Race/Ethnicity • Tags: BBC, Black Crime, Political Correctness 
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  1. Gordo says:

    The BBC are simply a propaganda organisation, more and more people have woken up to this.

    • Replies: @Alden
    , @VICB3
  2. Alden says:
    @Gordo

    Bolshevik Broadcasting Corporation. Back in the 1920s Churchill realized what a powerful tool radio and movies would be in the hands of communists and radicals. I forget what government position he held at the time.

    Whatever it was, he had , or grabbed the authority to establish the official government radio station BBC The idea was, being a government and the only radio network, communists could never take it over.

    He was wrong The take over by the communists and radicals was just delayed a few decades.

    • Replies: @Ann Nonny Mouse
  3. Lusthog says:

    I’m starting to think that BBC doesn’t stand for British Broadcast Corporation anymore…

  4. VICB3 says:
    @Gordo

    Their period dramas and adaptations of classic literature are always excellent though. (Not to mention the now classic Clarkson/Hammond/May ‘Top Gear’ episodes.)

    Credit where credit is due, please.

    But BBC news? Let’s not go there.*

    Just a thought.

    VicB3

    P.S. Who woulda thunk 30 years ago that Russia Today/Sputnik/Pravda/Tass would today prove to be the preferred provider of accurate and balanced news and analysis?

  5. L. Guapo says:

    The English know exactly what the score is. They have the same problem with their spades.

  6. anon[327] • Disclaimer says:

    Strong on interracial.
    Never let a black male be with a black female.
    This soothes someones’ soul.

  7. Graphs schmaphs. Here’s a “graph” for ya. End the drug war: End “criminal behavior.” Or at least, if you end the drug war, then it will be obvious that most non-drug crimes are committed by poor people because they are poor. You see, you bozos don’t really want to do anything about the problem. You just want to complain about it. Because you get paid to complain about it.

    It’s just like abortion. You don’t want to end it. You want to milk it.

    I mean, if they do end the drug war, what on earth are you going to write about? Kid steals licorice? Paroled French galley-slave steals loaf of bread? Somebody looked sideways at you and, to add insult to injury, they were apparently of another race?

    • Disagree: Bro43rd
    • Replies: @anon
    , @Bro43rd
    , @Getaclue
  8. You start with a foregone conclusion, then scrabble around cooking up graphs to support it.

    Yeah, that’s the correct order. That’s how “science” “progresses.”

    • Troll: mikemikev
  9. Tusk says:

    The BBC are certainly in a race to the bottom of all news outlets in terms of how dishonest they are. On the other hand, thank you for the article it does a great job of illustrating the differences.

  10. anon[145] • Disclaimer says:
    @obwandiyag

    I mean, if they do end the drug war, what on earth are you going to write about?

    Reality.

  11. D. K. says:

    ***

    Kyle Rittenhouse: Who is US teen accused of Kenosha Wisconsin protest murders?

    https://www.bbc.co.uk/news/world-us-canada-53934109

    This gives an account of the event, and there are three links offered within the story to provide context:

     Three facts about African-Americans and criminal justice
     ‘Black people have been through a lot this year’
     This police-free protest zone was dismantled – but was it the end?

    ***

    What does any of that “context” have to do with Kyle Rittenhouse’s being wrongly indicted for first-degree murder, inter alia, for shooting three violent (White) criminals who assaulted him, placing him in a reasonable fear of imminent death or serious bodily injury?

  12. Bro43rd says:
    @obwandiyag

    Yes end the drug war by all means. But that doesn’t begin to explain why violent crime rates are higher in poor African nation’s as opposed to poor Asian or moderately poor Eastern European nation’s.

  13. anon[284] • Disclaimer says:

    On the contentious Black/White matter, Blacks attack Whites at a higher rate (15.3%) than Whites attack Blacks (10.6%).

    I think you’re misreading the table. Those numbers do not measure the rate at which offenders attack; they measure the rate at which victims get attacked. The rows add up to 100%; the columns do not.

    The table shows fairly clearly that the rate at which blacks attack whites is 49.5%, compared to whites attacking blacks at a rate of 2.4%. (According to the table, blacks committed around 1,100,000 “violent incidents”, and the victim was white in around 548,000 of those incidents. Whites committed around 2,500,000 incidents, and the victim was black in around 60,000 of those incidents.)

    These numbers obviously can’t really be interpreted outside of the context that there are many more whites than blacks. However, that tends to make blacks look even worse — they’re committing 40% as many violent incidents, total, as whites while having 17% as many people (as of the current CIA world factbook, which is of 2020 vintage rather than 2018).

    It is worth observing that both blacks and whites commit cross-racial assaults at a rate that is less than what you would expect if victims were chosen by chance – whites are more than 50% of the population, and blacks are more than 3%.

    • Replies: @James Thompson
  14. Even in Blighty disproportionate black involvement in violent crime is self-evident and is correlated to Jamaica’s criminal culture that has been imported into the UK.

    The 2019 House of Commons Knife crime in England and Wales report, whose cover features a white person carrying a large knife, doesn’t even mention race or ethnic background. However, this becomes obvious when you read page 4 as well as 9 to 12 then look at the demographics. London boroughs with the highest knife crime rates also host a huge third world underclass. The outlier is Westminster where the rich live and tourists visit but this attracts criminals.

    London recorded the highest rate of 169 offences involving a knife per 100,000 population in 2018/19, a slight increase on a rate of 167 in 2017/18. 4 Gwent had the lowest rate of 24 offences per 100,000 individuals (up from 19 in 2017/18).

    At the end of the day the problem isn’t really the woke zealots who run the BBC and Guardian or crooked politicians who flooded the country with an alien criminal class. It is passive Brits, especially the English, who put up with all this nonsense which validates the following observation made by Simon in London on a Steve Sailer post (comment #81) back in July 2014.

    The Anglos also don’t seem to bear grudges to the same extent as the Celts do. Celts tend to be less reserved and more direct than the English, who are extremely reserved and tend to use very oblique language (though Germans are very direct).

  15. Getaclue says:
    @obwandiyag

    Anyone who has actually lived in a neighborhood where blacks are the vast majority like in Chicago would not be agreeing with your view of “reality”….

  16. anon[217] • Disclaimer says:

    My Question Demands An Answer

    Why do Brits care about the US so much and no American really cares about the UK?

    Why is it poorer Brits who would never have the chance to travel to the US who care most about it and the wealthier Brits who do travel to the US don’t care as much?

    Why don’t Americans care when London has riots, which is often, but Brits care so much about Minneapolis?

    Why do Brits secretly fantasize about going to America even if they dislike the country?

    Why do Brits and Australians care about the US and not one American even knew about the Australian Bush Fires?

    Can you tell me that? What is the difference?

    What is so special about America? Why do Europeans and Brits get worked up over it? Certainly Britain has Chavs, poverty, terrorism etc.

    • Replies: @James Thompson
    , @Lurker
  17. @anon

    Countries which were founded by radicals, adventurers, dreamers and Utopians always had to drum up new converts. The American Dream touched a nerve in Europe, because what it promised was partly true. Some people came to America and did well. (Less well known is that in some periods a third returned, disillusioned). The advantages were immense. Italians going to the River Plate did reasonably well, but long term did not prosper anywhere near as much as Italians who went to America.

    Hollywood became a world leader and from then on everyone in the world knew about America. That was the future.

  18. @anon

    Thanks for your comments. Point taken. I will look at this section again, and try to set it out with a better explanation. Base-rate comparisons probably need some diagrams so as to clarify the logic of the calculations.

  19. anon[503] • Disclaimer says:

    Right.
    But aren’t there similar disparities in the UK?
    https://www.gov.uk/government/statistics/race-and-the-criminal-justice-system-statistics-2018
    Or is this not commonly known?

    • Replies: @James Thompson
  20. @anon

    I think it is only partially know, and this document does not make it immediately clear. Recently Cressida Dick said to a Parliamentary Committee that Blacks committed 7 times as much violent crime, but I haven’t got a transcript of that.

    • Replies: @res
  21. res says:
    @James Thompson

    This article discusses that and links to a full transcript (this excerpt is in the answer to Q13).
    https://www.spectator.co.uk/article/i-admit-it-i-got-cressida-dick-wrong

    Nationally – you probably know the figures – you are four times more likely to be a victim of homicide if you are black and eight time more likely to be a perpetrator.

    The overlap with my key metric, which is knife injuries for under 25s, which we have been reducing for the last two years and into this year, shows enormous disproportionality in the way if affects our young black men as victims and, I am sorry to say, as perpetrators. That is horrible. For knife robbery, gangs, county lines, line holders: hugely disproportionate.

    The article continues.

    Four times more likely to be the victims of homicide, eight times more likely to be a perpetrator and also over-represented in perpetrating other forms of serious crime? That’s clearly a pretty good reason to be also over-represented in stop and search statistics then. As someone who did not know those figures, this all came as a jaw-dropper to me. It hardly fits with the dominant – indeed apparently the only permissible – broadcast narrative of a community unfairly victimised by racist coppers. No wonder the BBC and other TV channels failed to cover it.

    • Replies: @James Thompson
  22. dearieme says:

    “eight time more likely to be a perpetrator”: I am surprised that the American experience is so precisely reflected in Britain. What can it mean?

    • Replies: @anon
  23. anon[323] • Disclaimer says:
    @dearieme

    What can it mean?

    Something about “systematic systemic cisterns of racism” I am sure. What else could it be?

  24. @res

    Thanks for the links. I have gone through the transcript, and what is clear to me is that the Committee contains people who have no notion of Numbers Needed to Treat. That is to say, how many procedures you need to apply in order to get one positive result.

    I had intended to say more, but now find inspiration for another post. Many thanks.

  25. Lurker says:
    @anon

    We’ve not had a serious bout of enriching rioting since 2011.

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