Experts blame Covid.
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The year 2020 was famous for the biggest increase in murders ever recorded in the United States: a 30 percent jump in a single year, for a total of 21,570 murders. Here are the numbers going back to 1990.
You can see the increase in 2020, but the figure is still well below the all-time records from the early 1990s during the crack epidemic. In 2020, there were 611 mass shootings — that’s when four or more people stop bullets in a single incident.
In the year before, there had been 417.
In 2020, for murders in which the race of the victim was reported, 55.8 percent were black.
Blacks are 13 percent of the population, but accounted for fully two thirds of the increase in murder victims compared to 2019. If you make a best guess for the victims whose race was not known or reported, there were probably about 3,400 more murdered black people in 2020 than in the year before. 2020, of course, was the year of Black Lives Matter. And how many unarmed blacks were shot by the police in 2020? You know: That terrible racist problem we have. The Washington Post database reports that there were 18.
Was there another big increase in murders in 2021? We don’t have final figures, but the Gun Violence Archive says we had another 1,289 killings compared to 2020, for what would be a 6.6 percent jump.
At least 16 major cities set new, all-time records in 2021. That includes Indianapolis, Austin, Louisville, Baton Rouge, Columbus, and Philadelphia.
Here are the cities that had the highest murder rates in 2020.
That’s St. Louis at the top, with 87.21 homicides per 100,000 population. The national rate was 6.8 per 100,000.
Cities with lots of blacks tend to have a lot of murders, but the black death rate varies considerably. In Portland, blacks were killed at a rate of 100 per 100,000. In Chicago, 77 per 100,000, and 64 per 100,000 in Philadelphia.
The number of murders goes up and down, but the likelihood of your getting away with it keeps improving. This is a graph of the “clearance rate,” or the percentage of murders that are solved, usually with an arrest.
In 1965, 90 percent of murder cases were solved. Today, only 54 percent.
Murder is the crime the police try the hardest to solve. Here is the trend in clearance rates for car theft.
If your car is stolen, there is only about a one-in-ten chance there’ll be an arrest.
When a black or Hispanic is killed, the crime is less likely to be solved. Here are clearance rates by victim race.
These numbers are for the 10 years leading up to 2018. All rates are lower now and the black/white gap is greater. Someone who kills a black in the US has a better than 50:50 chance of getting away with it. In Baltimore in 2020, two out of three murderers got away with it.
Of course, this is our fault. Vox explains “How police racism in Baltimore made it harder for cops to catch murderers.”
Except that it’s hard to solve crimes when “snitches get stiches.” Even with their dying breaths, gang members often won’t tell police who shot them. Gangs want revenge, not justice.
And it’s a lot harder to solve a murder if the killer and victim don’t know each other. According to this tabulation of FBI data, EZASHR, 74 percent of blacks were killed by a stranger or someone whose relationship was unknown.
The figure for “whites” – which follows the usual FBI stupidity of including Hispanics with whites – was 20 points lower at 54 percent.
Killings with a firearm are harder to solve than other methods or murder. In 2020, using the same database, 86.2 percent of blacks were killed by firearm.
The figure for whites – again including Hispanics – was 65 percent, or 21 points lower.
Vox tells us the problem is racism.
But back to the increase in murder. What’s causing it? Let’s start with what the complete idiots say.
In 2020, at a time when New York city had seen a 63 percent increase in shooting victims, 27 percent more murders, and 61 percent more car thefts over the previous year, a Congresswoman from Brooklyn explained the reason. 2:11 – 2:36 – “The fact that” – “hungry that night.”
This is the same lady who says, “If we want to reduce the number of people in our jails, the answer is to stop building more of them.”
But the official, smart-money explanation for the rise in murder is — Covid. This guy at the University of Chicago, John Roman, says, “The overarching explanation for the increase in violence over the last two years is the pandemic.”
His research “focuses on evaluations of innovative crime control policies and justice programs.” Got that? Innovative.
Eddie Bocanegra of the Public Welfare Foundation runs an “evidence-based and trauma-informed program to reduce gun violence and promote safety and opportunity,” and he says, “I think Covid was the straw that broke the camel’s back.”
Georges Benjamin, executive director of the American Public Health Association says the problem is tension, political division, anger and hate.
“We’re literally seeing it in front of our eyes,” he says, “at school board meetings and public events.” You know: people pulling out their six-shooters at school board meetings.
These days, you have to go to foreign media to get common sense. The Daily Mail explains that “Crime soars in Minneapolis as cops fear being unfairly targeted in woke viral videos: Traffic stops drop by 74% and problem area patrols by 76% in wake of George Floyd death and de-fund police movement.”
More insight in a single British headline than from the goofs I just quoted. Officers don’t want to be the next guy to have his life ruined for doing his job. Maybe after all the rioters and looters they caught in 2020 were turned loose, they said to themselves, “Why bother?” Maybe they got tired of being told that “Good cops are dead cops” and “All cops are bastards.”
Maybe the rise in crime has something to do with Soros-backed prosecutors who got rid of bail, ordered an end to arrests for “crimes of poverty,” and preach “restorative justice,” whatever that is. “Nobody’s getting arrested anymore,” retired New York City Police Department Detective Robert Boyce complained. He went on to say, “People are getting picked up for gun possession and they’re just let out over and over again.”
Retired detectives can say these things. The Police Executive Research Forum has a report that covers 2019 to 2020.
There was an 18 percent increase in outright resignations and a 45 percent increase in retirements.
The report says it was much harder to find new recruits. Who wants to be an officer in a country like this?
In 2020, the number of arrests dropped 25 percent compared to the previous year, to the lowest number in 25 years. And that was the year of the BLM riots.
I’ll end with the latest horror story. As usual, the Daily Mail covers a story that’s too unimportant for the American prestige press. Brianna Kupfer was working alone in a furniture store in Los Angeles.
Shawn Smith, ambled into the store, stabbed her death, and calmly walked out.
He’s had dozens of arrests, including assault with a deadly weapon, possession of a stolen vehicle, and assaulting a police officer. Here are some of his booking photos.
In 2019, he was arrested for firing into a car with a child in it, but that crime got lost in the shuffle. Most recently, he was out on minimal bond for a possession of stolen-goods charge that is 15 months old. You see, Soros-backed Los Angeles DA George Gascon doesn’t like to prosecute misdemeanors.
Press reports say the killing was random. No way. Shawn Smith was desperate because of Covid. He was hoping to shoplift some bread so he could feed his wife and children and became understandably angry when Brianna Kupfer told him it was a furniture store.
So, yes, 2021 will have seen a nice jump in murders, and 2022 is off to a good start, too.