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Some Faint Shafts of Light In the U.K. Elections
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_81998165_81998164[1] For a traditionalist-conservative observer, there was at first glance not much to like in this week’s U.K. election result.

(Note on reading the election results: Some of the election-results websites compare the numbers for each party as elected this week with the numbers as elected at the last general election in 2010: Tories, for example, show as 330 today versus 306 then. My numbers are for elected-this-week vs. seating at the last parliamentary session in March. For Tories that’s 330 vs. 302 because seats changed hands in special elections 2010-2015.)

On closer examination, some faint shafts of light break through.

Brightest of those shafts: the Tories’ clear majority.

It is true that there is nothing much conservative about Britain’s Conservative Party, nothing in the way of ancient liberties, traditional social arrangements, governmental restraint, or demographic stability that the party leadership is keen to conserve. Cameron forced same-sex marriage through parliament in 2013, for example; and he is one of the founding signatories of the crazy-Left street-fighting anarchist group United Against Fascism.

This is, however the Tories’ first parliamentary majority for 18 years. They have been governing since 2010 in coalition with the Liberal Democrats, a genteel-“progressive” party holding 56 seats before this week’s election.

(The LibDems emerged from a 1980s alliance between the Social Democrats, a breakaway Labour group, and the ancient Liberal Party. That Social-Democratic-Party-and-Liberal alliance was known for a short time by my all-time favorite political acronym: SODPAL.)

The LibDems were crushed on Thursday, their seats in Parliament reduced from 56 to eight. This means that they can no longer act as a sheet anchor on any rightward movement by Cameron’s government.

True, Cameron has shown precious little desire to move rightward on anything. His parliamentary party, though, includes some genuinely conservative members. There was nothing they could do to influence policy while Cameron had to keep the LibDems on-side. Now, with no coalition partners keeping him left but only a slim overall majority in the Commons, Cameron has to keep a wary eye on these potential rebels.

The striking victory of the SNP in Scotland also has a positive aspect: It marks a major split in the Leftist vote. SNP took 40 of the Labour Party’s 41 Scottish seats. Labour is correspondingly weakened.

This, with no significant loss to the Tories. Scotland has been trending Left for decades: in 1997 the Scots returned no Tories to Parliament for the first time ever.

The nature of Scottish Leftism has also changed from the older, austere oats-kirk-and-labor union model, of which Britain’s last Labour Prime Minister Gordon Brown can be taken as the expiring gasp, to the more up-to-date CultMarx style personified by SNP leader Nicola Sturgeon, one of those grim radical harpies Britain’s Celtic fringe produces in such abundance.

Whether the SNP triumph will improve the prospects for a withdrawal of Scotland from the U.K. is much debated.

In last September’s referendum Scottish voters rejected independence by 55 to 45 percent. But it’s interesting to note that Thursday’s actual popular-vote figure for the SNP was just 50 percent. So possibly the balance has tipped towards independence this last eight months less than is generally assumed.

In any case, if the SNP pushes successfully for a new referendum, we may see what I suppose, in the jargon of our time, will be called a Scexit.

It has been suggested that the Scots could seek a truly federal solution within the U.K. on the Quebec model. VDARE.com Editor Peter Brimelow, who has written a book about Canadian federalism, pooh-poohs this. Brits, says Peter, have no historical experience with true federalism, and don’t understand it.

In any case, if it’s a federal relationship the Scots seek, they might think they can find it within the European Union (EU), which the SNP now keenly supports.

The Tory Party’s election manifesto actually promised Britons an in-or-out referendum on the EU before 2017. This was done merely to draw support from UKIP. Cameron is at this moment plotting a way to renege on that promise.

But if the Euroskeptics in his party can hold him to it, and the SNP can get another referendum on Scottish independence, the consequences of the dueling referendums could be very interesting indeed: Scotland within the EU, the rest of the U.K. outside it.

Nor is the news from UKIP altogether bad. In spite of losing one of their two seats, and the failure of UKIP leader Nigel Farage to win a seat, the party’s popular vote surged from less than a million in 2010 to almost four million this week.

UKIP has now displaced the LibDems as Britain’s third-largest party in popular votes, the choice of one in eight voters on Thursday. Significantly, UKIP got 2.7 times as many votes as the triumphant SNP.

All this in spite of relentless efforts by Britain’s Main Stream Media to mock and delegitimize UKIP, and apparently some attempts to suppress their vote.

Unfortunately for UKIP, its vote is smeared across most of Britain, while the SNP’s is concentrated in Scotland. This is the problem with first-past-the-post voting.

Under the proportional representation system favored by most parliamentary democracies, UKIP would have done much better. On the simplest PR model—there are variant flavors—UKIP would have won 83 seats in Parliament on Thursday.

Inevitably UKIP and other small parties are grumbling about the unfairness of first-past-the-post.

There are downsides to PR, though. You could ask Benjamin Netanyahu about that. On Wednesday this week the Prime Minister of Israel finally announced the formation of a five-party coalition government, seven weeks after the March election. And seven weeks is by no means a record for coalition-haggling. Belgium had an election in June of 2010 and finally got a coalition worked out in December the following year after 589 days with no government.

Agitation for scrapping first-past-the-post is nothing new in Britain. The Liberal Democrats pushed this cause after entering into coalition with the Tories after the 2010 election. They actually managed to force a referendum on the topic: voters rejected the proposed changes.

Brits have a fondness for what an earlier Prime Minister called “the smack of firm government.”

Lesser nationalist parties fielded handfuls of candidates on Thursday but recorded few votes. The British National Party (BNP) did best, with 1,667 votes in eight constituencies.

Paul “I am a racist” Weston’s party, Liberty GB, which I advertised on VDARE.com a few weeks ago, fielded 3 candidates but scored a total of less than 900 votes. Mighty oaks from little acorns grow, Paul.

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These are all my first impressions from Thursday’s result. I hope to be doing some more analysis of the election returns, including on topics like the Muslim vote and the impact of events in the Mediterranean, as more data comes in from the vote analysts.

John Derbyshire [email him] writes an incredible amount on all sorts of subjects for all kinds of outlets. (This no longer includes National Review, whose editors had some kind of tantrum and fired him. ) He is the author of We Are Doomed: Reclaiming Conservative Pessimism and several other books. His most recent book, published by VDARE.com com is FROM THE DISSIDENT RIGHT (also available in Kindle).His writings are archived at JohnDerbyshire.com.

(Republished from VDare by permission of author or representative)
 
• Category: Foreign Policy, Ideology • Tags: British Politics, UKIP 
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  1. Anonym says:

    This is in some ways a great result for us.

    http://www.dailymail.co.uk/news/article-1249797/Labour-threw-open-doors-mass-migration-secret-plot-make-multicultural-UK.html

    How’s that “rubbing the right’s nose in diversity” working out for you, Labour? I hope the rest of the so-called Labour/Labor parties around the world learn some lessons from this. And if not, maybe the rest of the world will learn that KKKrazy Glue has its limitations.

    • Replies: @Sunbeam
  2. Sunbeam says:
    @Anonym

    There’s a problem with one thing that Weston guy said.

    “A phobia is an irrational fear of something. Now I don’t have an irrational fear of Islam. I look around the world today, – at Syria at the moment, where almost a hundred thousand people have been killed in the last two years, where Shia Muslims are slaughtering Sunni Muslims and vice versa – I look at places like Indonesia, and Egypt, and China and the Philippines – everywhere you look you see problems with Islam. And they’re violent. They are – dare I say it, to really reinforce my racist credentials – a thoroughly savage political and religious ideology.”

    That may be true. But 15 years ago the Arab world had a perfectly good set of dicatators keeping a lid on this thing, and muddling through much as they always have.

    Then the United States (and it’s little helper, the UK) basically walked in, picked up the barrel of oil, moved it 30 feet in a random direction (they weren’t really sure where to go at this point), then poked a hole in the barrel and through a match on the oil.

    Demographic pressure from the incredible number of the youth cohort in these countries was going to find an outlet in some manner, regardless of how long Assad and Hussein stuck around.

    But the US took a bad situation and made it a ludicrous one. And yeah, I do assign guilt to the US over this. The whole thing was stupid from the beginning, got stupider, then everyone doubled down on the stupidity.

    And it’s like no one in charge or the media ever noticed, though I remember reading criticisms of the whole thing going back to the beginning on the internet.

    I think the highlight of ludicrous for me is how we got from 9/11 to invading Iraq. That made no sense. Then Colin Powell’s insane speech at the UN wasn’t laughed at in the media.

    • Replies: @Anonym
  3. Anonym says:
    @Sunbeam

    You are correct with Iraq and Afghanistan. This is the whole problem with “Invade the world, Invite the World”. It would be better not to invade the world in the first place.

  4. The Tory Party’s election manifesto actually promised Britons an in-or-out referendum on the EU before 2017.

    ‘By 2017′ means by the end of 2017. Surprised to find Tim Stanley is a Eurosceptic. The first true test of Cameron’s resolve is whether he goes ahead with repealing the Human Rights’ Act.

  5. emptyfree says:

    I had read somewhere (can’t remember where) that UKIP actually nipped a few votes from traditional unionist Labour voters. Is there any evidence of that? Of UKIP stealing from both the right AND the left?

    • Replies: @FirkinRidiculous
  6. KFoy says:

    The 2017 referendum will be put into law at the Queen’s speech soon, so its definitely going happen. Add to that the fact that the EU commission is going to force sharing the burden of asylum seekers by introducing a quota system for each country, UK-EU-German Relations are about to get very frosty . Germany are pursuing this quota policy because the number of people seeking asylum there is going to double this year, reaching a whopping 400,000. As you can imagine this is giving the Germans the jitters, and with no end in sight to the Syrian war and Africa’s demographic bomb just starting to go off, technocrats are starting to fret. But the mediterranean sea will freeze over before asylum seekers are taken from Germany and relocated in the UK. If the EU commission go ahead with this policy, Britain seriously could leave the EU!

    • Replies: @Kat Grey
  7. Kat Grey says:
    @KFoy

    If the UK remains in the EU, indigenous Brits will soon become a minority in England. Tourists wishing to see a genuine English person will have to visit the West Country or the Fens.

  8. “The problem with democracy is that the people end up getting the government they deserve.”

    As we keep removing the tyrants that have been suppressing Islam, we learn more and more why their tactics were so extreme.

  9. “The far-Left statist, globalist, Cultural Marxist SNP (Scottish National [sic] Party)”

    There was me thinking it was a broad-church social democratic nationalist party trying to sell itself to the Scottish business community and the wider populace at the same time.

  10. Apparently the BNP campaigned on a “punish Labour” message, so it’s hard to know for sure whether they had much impact. They may have persuaded quite a few people to not vote Labour, but they obviously haven’t persuaded many people to vote BNP.

    Their new leader says trying to compete as a national player in Britain’s parliamentary system is a waste of time for smaller parties, so his strategy is to focus on a small number of parliamentary seats, while serving as an nationalist news/PR provider.

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