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Earlier: John Derbyshire Is Still A Coronavirus Agnostic, But He’s Wearing A Mask

We all have our inclinations and tendencies, deriving ultimately, I suppose, from genetic predispositions.

I was, for example, deeply unsurprised to see that Lady Ann published a fine spirited skeptical piece about Coronavirus on March 25th here at VDARE.com:

We’ll get no BREAKING NEWS alerts for the regular flu deaths (so far this season, more than 23,000, compared to 533 from the coronavirus).

Nor for the more than 3,000 people who die every day of heart disease or cancer. No alerts for the hundreds who die each day from car accidents, illegal aliens and suicide.

Only coronavirus deaths are considered newsworthy.

The opinion cut about the Coronavirus pandemic—red v. blue, gentry v. proles, cloud people v. dirt people, Tutsis v. Hutus—is as plain as it can be. The best evidence of this is a chart produced by the polling company Civiqs, reproduced in the March 21st New York Times.

Red vs. Blue on Coronavirus Concern: The Gap Is Still Big but Closing, by Emily Badger and Kevin Quealy, March 21, 2020

The chart shows the proportions of people, broken out separately by Democrat and Republican, who are “extremely concerned,” about a coronavirus outbreak. It shows the proportions for each state, from late February through to late March. So there are 100 lines on this graph: fifty for Democrats, fifty for Republicans, one line per state in each case.

All the lines trend upwards, with both Tutsis and Hutus getting more “extremely concerned” through the month.

What jumps out at you, though, is that the fifty red lines, for Republicans in the fifty states, are bunched down in the five-to-fifteen-percent zone; while the fifty blue lines, for Democrats, occupy a totally separate space up in the twenty-to-sixty-percent zone.

The most worried state for both Democrats and Republicans, was Washington State: 62 percent of Democrats, 20 percent of Republicans.

I’m amazed the pollsters could find any Republicans up there in the Tutsi heartlands of the Northwest.

The least worried Democrats were in Minnesota, 42 percent; the least worried Republicans in Arkansas, eight percent.

I’ll confess that my own temperamental leaning is towards skepticism. After all these years of observing and commenting on Western society, it’s hard not to see the news as just a succession of hysterias.

We live in a hysterical age, the more so since social media came up. When suddenly something new is filling the airwaves—MeToo, Russian Collusion, Black Lives Matter—my default response is: “Oh, here’s the latest hysteria. Who’s whipping up this one?

The answer in every case, of course, being the Tutsi Power Structure.

However, I try at the same time to be a good empiricist, holding firmly to the belief that some things are true even though the enemy says they are true.

I live just thirty miles from Elmhurst Hospital in New York City, tagged on Wednesday this week by the city hospitals administration as “the center of the crisis.”

That was after thirteen people died there in a 24-hour period. We’re getting harrowing reports from medical staff in the city. [Coronavirus: ‘Hell’ at New York’s COVID-19 ground zero, By Alistair Bunkall, Sky News, March 26, 2020].

As of March 26, around half of all confirmed coronavirus cases were in the New York City area.

Use this link to determine the closest cases to you.

As best I can judge from the mess of data, and making due allowance for the level of hysteria that underlies all news reporting nowadays, we are looking at something unusually nasty here, and the extreme social distancing being urged on us is justified.

It’ll be a whole lot more justified if we can localize and refine it; but for that we need a better quality of data than we’ve had so far.

The people in charge seem to understand this; so after a couple more weeks of one-size-fits-all lockdown, we’ll move to something more targeted and loose.

I hope.

ORDER IT NOW

The Southern Hemisphere bears keeping an eye on. There is a general expectation up here that as the weather warms through April, the virus will quiesce, perhaps bouncing back again in the Fall. That’s a Northern Hemisphere-supremacist point of view, though. As our hemisphere warms up, the folk down in Argentina, Chile, Australia, South Africa, etc. are cooling off into their fall and winter.

The next few weeks should give us a clearer idea about how much this new coronavirus minds the weather.

It looked for a while as though Brazil might offer us a test-bed for total government inaction. Jair Bolsonaro, the president of that country, is an extreme virus skeptic, out there with Lady Ann. On March 20, he called COVID-19 “a little flu.” [Brazil’s Bolsonaro again says coronavirus concern overblown, by David Biller, AP, March 24, 2020]

Brazil’s politicians and health officials, though, beg to differ. They seem to be going with the international consensus of quarantines, social distancing, and the rest. [Where Is the Coronavirus in Latin America?, Americas Society and Council of the Americas, March 27, 2020]

Reading that report on Brazil’s response, my attention got snagged on this sentence:

On March 24, Health Minister Luiz Henrique Mandetta announced the government would start to roll out a plan that will distribute 2.3 million testing kits to states across Brazil. The Ministry also plans to import over 1 million rapid tests from the United States in April.

So the U.S.A. is sufficiently over-supplied with testing kits we can export a million of them to Brazil next month!

Good to know.

(Republished from VDare by permission of author or representative)
 
• Category: Ideology • Tags: American Media, Coronavirus, Disease 
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  1. Dear Derb,

    We are across the water from you, similarly distant from the piled corpses and lampshades under which Manhattan Island is apparently now buried. It would be interesting to see a more granular breakdown of concern levels, focusing on just the fifty-mile radius around the apocalypse.

    Relaxed Republicans tend to own single-family homes with land they can putter around on. Today I sat in the back yard, took off my shirt and collected some vitamin D in the sunshine. Yesterday I walked four miles for exercise. I wonder how many city Democrats can do these things now?

    We always keep a rotating supply of non-perishable foods and household supplies in a basement room. Never getting to hot or cold, it is always good for about of three months if the SHTF. We really don’t have to go anywhere, but today I put on an N95 mask and went and bought a few things anyway. Hardly anybody else was wearing a mask.

    The American norm of single family homes with property that belongs to the residents is superior. Period. Lately it has been under attack from the Tutsis for everything from global warming to being too white. F-’em all. They are just envious.

  2. Could the huge red-squad vs blue-squad divide reflect their living conditions with R’s much more likely to be living in exurbs or rural areas and D’s in the cities? Obviously, living in close proximity to other people is a legitimate cause for concern, and then there is the stressed-out-city-dweller paranoia factor. As has been almost always the case for the last decade, I’m with Ann on this.

    As far as the large amount of contagion in NY City itself (home to lots of blue-squad members), they do have a huge number of Chinese people, many who were going to and coming back from China during the Spring Festival. I don’t know if you’ve read Paul Kersey’s post about it, but having a big rally back in early February, to show support and yell “Be Strong, Wuhan!” is the kind of thing that you hesitate to have a belly laugh about, but then you do anyway.

  3. So the U.S.A. is sufficiently over-supplied with testing kits we can export a million of them to Brazil next month!

    Good to know.

    So the U.S.A. is building a southern border wall. Good to know.

  4. @Buzz Mohawk

    Obviously we are in pretty good agreement, Buzz. I just wanted to say that I wrote my comment before yours was up, in the initial new-post-period when the comments don’t appear until a certain number or a certain time, not sure which.

    • Replies: @Buzz Mohawk
  5. @Achmed E. Newman

    We are usually in pretty good agreement, I notice. Thanks. No doubt there are many, many more.

  6. Follow the money. It is all about the money. The old money (dead Presidents, in green, on linen paper, which are legal tender for all debts public and private) and it’s attendant accounting and distribution has been set aflame. We are all locked down (especially New York, Dollar trading Capital) so that the fire can grow to burn all the money, so the dumb dirt people (95 % of us) will be desperate enough to do anything for some of the new scrip they have planned.

    Derb used to write advice fr young people entering the job market. He said ‘Get a government job!!”. I wonder how well that is going to hold up over the next 2 years (hard winters?) or so.

  7. Realist says:
    @Buzz Mohawk

    The American norm of single family homes with property that belongs to the residents is superior. Period. Lately it has been under attack from the Tutsis for everything from global warming to being too white. F-’em all. They are just envious.

    Your comment is excellent.

  8. Medical professionals sceptical of this whole affair, are coalescing into ‘physicans and experts for coronavirus truth’

    Much good professional medical material collated by ‘A Swiss Doctor on Covid-19’, and summarised here:

    [MORE]

    In summary, we have another flu season virus, associated with the death of those nearly always elderly or gravely ill, as usual with the 300,000 to 500,000 flu-associated deaths each year.

    And as with the flu, we have tens of millions who may be nominally touched by the virus, mostly with zero or minor effects in healthy or younger people.

    But this time, a panic is created over numbers not really different from flu season ranges –

    Via aggressive deception re ‘deaths from coronavirus’, when mostly it is just having the virus along with severe lethal ailments, the same way that people dying of heart trouble, cancer, or diabetes also can have cold or flu … one more factor tossed in for a weakened individual who may not have long to live anyway, but not ‘THE cause’ of dying.

    And to add to the panic and social destruction, we have an aggressive removal of healthcare professionals from the scene, nurses and doctors not allowed to practice ‘because they have the virus and need to be quarantined’, imploding health care delivery around the world, leading to more deaths.

    From the Swiss doctor report cited above:

    “Most major media falsely report that Italy has up to 800 deaths per day from the coronavirus. In reality, the president of the Italian Civil Protection Service stresses that these are deaths WITH the coronavirus and not FROM the coronavirus. In other words, these persons died while also testing positive [not necessarily causal.]

    Between those who died *from* the coronavirus and those who died *with* the coronavirus, it is not clear whether the person died from the pre-existing chronic diseases.

    Renowned Italian virologist Giulio Tarro argues that the mortality rate of Covid19 is below 1% even in Italy and is therefore comparable to influenza. The higher values only arise because no distinction is made between deaths with and by Covid19 and because the number of (symptom-free) infected persons is greatly underestimated.

    Stanford Professor John Ioannidis showed that the age-corrected lethality of Covid19 is between 0.025% and 0.625%, i.e. in the range of a strong cold or the flu.

    A Japanese study showed that of all the test-positive cruise passengers, and despite high average age, 48% remained completely symptom-free; even among the 80-89 year olds 48% remained symptom-free, while among 70 to 79 year olds it was an astounding 60% that developed no symptoms at all.

    The Italian example has shown that 99% of test-positive deaths had one or more pre-existing conditions, and even among these, only 12% of the death certificates mentioned Covid19 as a causal factor.

    Average age of the positively-tested deceased in Italy is currently about 81 years. 10% of the deceased are over 90 years old. 90% of the deceased are over 70 years old.

    80% of the deceased had suffered from two or more chronic diseases. 50% of the deceased had suffered from three or more chronic diseases.

    Less than 1% of deceased were healthy persons, and sometimes a hidden ailment is discovered, e.g., a young person ‘dead from Covid-19’ turned out to have unseen leukemia.

    Northern Italy has one of the oldest populations and the worst air quality in Europe, which had already led to an increased number of respiratory diseases and deaths in the past
    Italian newspaper Corriere della Sera points out that Italian intensive care units already collapsed under the marked flu wave in 2017/2018.

    Argentinean virologist and biochemist Pablo Goldschmidt explains that Covid19 is no more dangerous than a bad cold or the flu.

    Dr Goldschmidt speaks of a ‘global terror’ created by the media and politics. Every year, he says, three million newborns worldwide and 50,000 adults in the US alone die of pneumonia, the main death throes of ‘Covid-19.’

    German Professor Karin Moelling, former Chair of Medical Virology at the University of Zurich, stated in an interview that Covid19 is “no killer virus” and that “panic must end”.

    Countries like South Korea and Japan that introduced no lockdown measures have experienced near-zero excess mortality in connection with Covid-19.

    Swiss deaths so far were also high-risk patients with chronic diseases, an average age of more than 80 years and a maximum age of 97 years.

    According to all current data, for the healthy general population of school and working age, a mild to moderate course of Covid-19 can be expected.”

    • Replies: @orionyx
  9. keypusher says:
    @Buzz Mohawk

    Today I sat in the back yard, took off my shirt and collected some vitamin D in the sunshine.
    Yesterday I walked four miles for exercise. I wonder how many city Democrats can do these things now?

    Anyone can run or walk who wants to, in my Manhattan experience. So far. Too cold to take your shirt off.

  10. “So the U.S.A. is sufficiently over-supplied with testing kits we can export a million of them to Brazil next month!”

    Yeah, see….they aren’t needed here anyway. The numbers are pulled from the butts of those reporting them. We don’ need no steenkeen test kits.

    A friend of mine said that someone he knew had just died in the nursing home from the coronavirus. Once I expressed my doubt that the corona virus confirmation was valid, I turned out to have one less friend. People get really honked off if you doubt their latest fear.

    • Agree: By-tor
    • Replies: @Wielgus
    , @Corvinus
  11. So the U.S.A. is sufficiently over-supplied with testing kits we can export a million of them to Brazil next month!

    As Derb so very often and correctly points out, the GOP are the Stupid Party, and last time I looked they were “running” the Executive Branch, the Branch actually charged to make things happen … or not.

  12. So the U.S.A. is sufficiently over-supplied with testing kits we can export a million of them to Brazil next month!

    I would prefer to think of it as evidence that the US still has some small functioning part that is not centrally-planned, where businesses take and fulfil orders in a ‘cab rank’ way, and live up to the expectations of people who think contracts matter (even if the client – being a government – is made up of people I would gladly sent to the camps).

    Hospitals are for-profit businesses: they shouldn’t get away with trying to source useful shit by government interference, just because they failed to adequately stock up when they were pocketing monopoly-like profits because of the well-understood ‘principal-agent problem’ that applies in insurance.

    They’re still pocketing monopoly profits for that same reason, but the useful shit got a bit scarcer. Fucking diddums.

    Plus: hospitals are the prime focus of the 3rd or 4th greatest cause of death in the US – medical error.

    • Agree: JMcG
  13. I have yet to see a single hysterical person. Or hear of one. Here in Mexico you see clerks in masks, hand sanitizer dispensed at entrances to stores, that sort of thing, but everyone is perfectly calm. I grant that I am a bit of a fossil, but from a generation that thought is a good thing to know what words mean. Now telling a dirty joke is violence, reporting a brutal murder is racism, and washing your hands is hysteria. Sigh.

    • Replies: @R.G. Camara
  14. Exile says:

    NYC is one place in the US right now that might live up to the hype. Stay safe, grumpy old bastard.

  15. Wielgus says:
    @Twodees Partain

    Sometimes that is the case for those with cherished beliefs. For example I met a Jewish woman at a university summer school on the Russian language in 1982. We met up occasionally on my visits to London but mostly kept in touch by letter – we never exchanged phone numbers but correspondence by letter or postcard was OK as we were both pretty literate, even if in hindsight it was old-fashioned. In 1988 I criticised Israel mildly in a letter and she never replied. We lost touch. I looked her up in Google around the start of the millennium and she was living in Israel although perhaps only temporarily.

    • Replies: @Twodees Partain
  16. orionyx says:
    @Brabantian

    Thanks for posting this, Brabantian.

    Everyone should read it, and it shouldn’t be hidden behind a MORE.

  17. Corvinus says:
    @Twodees Partain

    You have one less friend because you were simply speculating, and essentially referring to your friend as someone who is other than honest. Of course we need tests by medical professionals for Covid-19. It is amazing how ignorant you are on these matters.

  18. unit472 says: • Website

    Industry is churning out test kits but the bottleneck is having enough qualified people ( basically nurses) for those nose and throat swabs and they need full PPE to do it and both are in short supply.

    In Wuhan something like 1/3 of the bat stew flu patients were healthcare workers. Sticking tubes down the trachea of an infected patient is a high risk procedure so we really need to get a pharmaceutical treatment going. As far as I am concerned, given the mortality rate for high risk patients needing ventilators the FDA ought to dispense with clinical trial protocols and start using these people as guinea pigs. It can only help them as 90% are going to die anyway,

    • Replies: @By-tor
  19. By-tor says:
    @unit472

    Bat stew did not cause a virus with AIDS transmission DNA in it.

  20. @Wielgus

    It’s not uncommon I suppose, but that was the first time anyone had ever done that to me just for making an observation. If that’s all it takes to end a friendship, then I have to wonder how good a friend I just lost.

    • Replies: @Wielgus
  21. Wielgus says:
    @Twodees Partain

    In my case the friendship seems to have been less profound than the other person’s commitment to Zionism. Oh well.

    • Replies: @Twodees Partain
  22. MEH 0910 says:

    • Replies: @Achmed E. Newman
  23. @Wielgus

    My friendship was apparently less important than the other guy’s commitment to TV news. Oh well indeed. ahaha

  24. @MEH 0910

    Anatoly Karlin is a complete idiot. I don’t think the usually clear-headed and erudite Steve Sailer should believe a damn thing he writes.

  25. rienzi says:

    Where are the giant piles of bodies? Here in Florida, a state with a population of more than 20 million, full to the gunwales with sick old people, as of today a grand total of 71 deaths.

    Even more puzzling, a grand total of TWO deaths of people 55 and younger from this hideous disease, killing all in its path.

    We shut down the entire state, trashing thousands of businesses, and putting millions out of work for this? Seems a pretty steep price.

    • Replies: @Neuday
  26. Neuday says:
    @rienzi

    We shut down the entire state, trashing thousands of businesses, and putting millions out of work for this? Seems a pretty steep price.

    Perhaps, but if this pandemic/hysterical outburst takes out Orange Man and ushers in full-blown Socialism, the dead and unemployed can be considered martyrs for the cause.

  27. I’m amazed the pollsters could find any Republicans up there in the Tutsi heartlands of the Northwest.

    It’s a little more complicated than that. The corridor that runs from the Canadian border down to around Olympia is left-leaning, but the rest of Washington state is pretty conservative, especially the eastern part of the state around Spokane. Even the counties across the sound from Seattle have a different vibe.

  28. @Frederick V. Reed

    Please stay in Mexico with all the Mexican rapists and drug dealers you swear don’t exist but whom you also think are such harder worker than Americans, ya traitorous bitch.

  29. Jair Bolsonaro, the president of that country, is an extreme virus skeptic, out there with Lady Ann.

    Mr. Derbyshire, I’d say you are a skeptic, or an agnostic, if you will. You know enough to be one. I might even agree Ms. Coulter could, possibly, be one. But I would not say Mr. Bolsonaro is a skeptic. He’s something else, though I’m not sure what.

  30. I’m amazed the pollsters could find any Republicans up there in the Tutsi heartlands of the Northwest.

    Eastern Washington went for Trump, as did upstate New York and inland California. In the Evergreen State, it’s left-wing atheists on the coast, right-wing atheists in the hills.

    • Replies: @Hibernian
  31. Hibernian says:
    @Reg Cæsar

    They have their share of religious fanatics.

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