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Why Were There So Few Caribbean Islanders in 1491?
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Most people from the Caribbean Islands look like white, black, or in-between, while most people from the Latin American mainland look white, Amerindian, or in-between, with blacker people mostly seen along the coasts.

Occasionally you see a mestizo-looking islander, such as singer Jennifer Lopez, but not many.

Geneticist David Reich’s new finding is that there were never many Caribbean islanders.

Here’s a story I missed from a year ago:

Ancient DNA Is Changing How We Think About the Caribbean

New research delivers surprising findings about Indigenous people in the region before contact with Europeans.

Dec. 23, 2020

By David Reich and Orlando Patterson

Dr. Reich is a geneticist at Harvard who specializes in the study of ancient DNA. Dr. Patterson is a sociologist at Harvard with expertise in the Caribbean.

In 1492, Christopher Columbus touched land for the first time in the Americas, reaching the Bahamas, Hispaniola (present-day Dominican Republic and Haiti) and eastern Cuba. After he returned to Spain he reported that he had encountered islands rich in gold. A few years later his brother Bartholomew, who also traveled to the Americas, reported that Hispaniola had a large population whose labor and land could be put to the advantage of the Spanish crown. He estimated the population at 1.1 million people.

Was this figure accurate? It soon was a matter of dispute. Bartolomé de las Casas, a Spanish monk and colonist who became the first chronicler of the human disaster that unfolded in the Americas after the arrival of Europeans, estimated a far larger number: three million to four million.

The current population of Haiti and Dominican Republic is 22 million.

The population size of “pre-contact” Hispaniola would continue to be a contested issue until the present day, not least because of its profound emotional and moral resonance in light of the destruction of that world. Modern scholars have generally estimated the population at 250,000 to a million people.

Some of the arguments for large population numbers in the pre-contact Americas have been motivated by an attempt to counter a myth, perpetuated by apologists for colonialism like the philosopher John Locke, that the Americas were a vast “vacuum domicilium,” or empty dwelling, populated by a handful of Indigenous groups whose displacement could be readily justified. In a similar vein, some of the arguments for large population sizes have been motivated by a desire to underscore how disastrous the arrival of Europeans was for Indigenous people.

… By analyzing the DNA of ancient Indigenous Caribbean people, a study published in Nature on Wednesday by one of us (Professor Reich) makes clear that the population of Hispaniola was no more than a few tens of thousands of people. Almost all prior estimates have been at least tenfold too large.

It’s rather curious why the population wasn’t larger. The population of Mexico/Guatemala was sizable, judging by the huge number of large ruins under the forest. (And the population of Peru was big, too, judging by all the terraces for growing potatoes that you can see carved into mountainsides.)

Was the Malthusian ceiling low in the Caribbean? Was warfare constant? When Columbus arrived, the Tainos were terrified of the Caribs. But why didn’t they get better at defense?

… Another surprising finding, for instance, is that the genetic legacy of pre-contact Caribbean people did not disappear: They contributed an estimated 14 percent of the DNA of living people from Puerto Rico, 6 percent of that in the Dominican Republic and 4 percent of that in Cuba. In addition, by illuminating the highly mobile lifestyle of pre-contact Caribbean people with many DNA cousins across different islands, the research underscores the degree to which they were connected — a relative unity later fractured by centuries of division into colonial spheres by European powers.

In other words, the islanders had good boats and thus should have been able to get to the mainland to trade for new seeds and the like. The Caribbean wasn’t like Tasmania, where the locals were cut off from Australia by rising oceans after the Ice Age and regressed technologically, even losing fire.

On the other hand, the New World didn’t have much metal for axes and saws, so maybe keeping the forest from encroaching on the fields was a constant problem in the islands?

 
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  1. The Anasazi disappeared from the Four Corners area about 900 years ago. Something happened or changed, whatever it was, but they left behind stone buildings.

    Maybe something happened in the Caribbean. Hurricanes? Perhaps they were enough to periodically knock back the population and whatever agriculture or projects they did. Weather could have been even worse there then than now, despite what Climate Change™ alarmists would have us think.

    • Replies: @Cato
    , @Escher
  2. Dave Pinsen says: • Website

    A few years ago, Helen Andrews had an essay revisiting Las Casas’s legacy (”A Loving Ambivalence”):

    He was the original humanitarian personality, the first sign of the shift from pre-modern to modern ideas of moral heroism, from Christian saints to human rights activists. It is ironic that he should have so easily shrugged off the deaths for which he really was individually responsible—ironic, and yet entirely in keeping with his twentieth-century successors on the revolutionary left.

    • Replies: @HA
  3. Irony of ironies: the term redneck came from the Irish who were sent to the Caribbean to die and are now forgotten for their slavery as well as their existence.

    It was because their necks were red from the sunburn as they cleared the crops.

    If you want to read more: https://www.irishamerica.com/2001/04/to-hell-or-barbados/

    Slavery is an intrinsic part of the western economy: except it doesn’t reduce to phenotype, only social circumstance. You’ll learn.

    For instance: did you know that the last of convict transportation to Australia ended in West Australia on 10 January 1868.

    3 years after the passage of the USA’s Thirteenth Amendment in 1865.

    If you ever want to start a righteous fight in a pub quote this fact and equate the convicts with slavery (which they were..and worse).

  4. This is hilarious, BTW:

    Bartholomew… estimated the population at 1.1 million people.

    Bartolomé de las Casas… estimated a far larger number: three million to four million.

    Modern scholars have generally estimated the population at 250,000 to a million people.

    … the population of Hispaniola was no more than a few tens of thousands of people. Almost all prior estimates have been at least tenfold too large.

    The explorers had to tell a good story when they got home. The academics were just wrong.

    • Agree: Muggles
    • Replies: @mookoo
    , @Mactoul
    , @LP5
  5. Mass farming requires intelligence spread among st the population. As the commies learned, a few smart dudes in charge isn’t enough, you need the high IQ spread evenly spread amongst large farmers throughout.

  6. SIMP simp says:

    Pre-contact population in the Americas was large only in high altitude areas with temperate climate like the mountains of Central Mexico and the Andes mountains of Peru and Bolivia.
    This is true also of sub-saharan Africa where the highest populations were in the highlands of Ethiopia and Rwanda.

    • Agree: Alden
    • Replies: @TBA
    , @Colin Wright
  7. Cortes says:

    Perhaps the population was in the happy position of equilibrium: insufficient numbers to place real stress on its environment, with plentiful fish in the seas, no shortage of easily harvested foods on land and no real pressure to improve things. Disagreement with the neighbours? There’s that little island over there with nobody on it…

    Could it be they’d just completed their Carib90 health care programme?

  8. Bert says:

    In 1491 the vertebrate animals available to be hunted were small. The largest mammals were hutias at less than 5 lbs body weight. https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Hutia
    Other than marine turtles capturable on nesting beaches, the largest reptiles were the ground iguanas Cyclura. Freshwater resources were scant as well. The Cuban Gar is only 3 ft long, and the Cuban Crocodile double that. Nothing on the islands was comparable in size to bison or even white-tailed deer. A large ground sloth did survive on Cuba until 5000 BP, but the earliest human arrivals apparently eliminated it, and missed out on domesticating a Xenarthran for fun and profit.

  9. @R.G. Camara

    Russian serfs and peasants, however illiterate, were competent enough farmers given the weather and the fertility of the land they were born on. The ones with the intelligence deficit were the commissars who, for all their learning, weren’t so brilliant that they could persuade people to work hard when most of their product was requisitioned off.

    • Agree: Bert, mc23, Ed
  10. By David Reich and Orlando Patterson

    Reich: I did the science.
    Patterson: I’m here so Reich can puncture a myth about people of color and not get run out of town.

    • Agree: Dan Hayes
  11. Cortes says:
    @Bert

    These are important points. But other island-hopping people took their domesticated animals with them. See, for example:

    https://eastmauiwatershed.org/wp-content/uploads/2013/01/Puaa-cultural-fact-sheet-04.03.pdf

    on pigs in Hawaii.

  12. D. K. says:
    @Pat Hannagan

    ***

    For instance: did you know that the last of convict transportation to Australia ended in West Australia on 10 January 1868.

    3 years after the passage of the USA’s Thirteenth Amendment in 1865.

    If you ever want to start a righteous fight in a pub quote this fact and equate the convicts with slavery (which they were..and worse).

    ***

    THE THIRTEENTH AMENDMENT TO THE CONSTITUTION OF THE UNITED STATES:

    Section 1

    Neither slavery nor involuntary servitude, except as a punishment for crime whereof the party shall have been duly convicted, shall exist within the United States, or any place subject to their jurisdiction.

    Section 2

    Congress shall have power to enforce this article by appropriate legislation.

    ***

    The Thirteenth Amendment was ratified on Wednesday, December 6, 1865, exactly two years and five weeks before that Friday, January 10, 1868, transportation of convicts.

    • Replies: @Jonathan Mason
    , @Alden
  13. sb says:
    @Pat Hannagan

    Well I’m an Australian of part Irish convict origins .
    To my knowledge no one in my family history has ever equated convicts with slavery . And a few take an interest in family history .

    I’ve read that one in five Australians has some convict ancestry and while I realise that the convict experience was extremely variable ( see Port Arthur and other harsh penal settlements ) I’d say that most did their time and then quietly joined the general society . Actually compared to their peers imprisoned back in Britain I’d say that they were the fortunate ones

    But I respect that your family history may be different

    • Replies: @mc23
    , @AnotherDad
    , @Anonymous
  14. Bert says:
    @Pat Hannagan

    If you want to start a righteous fight in a Sailer column, ignorantly post misinformation. The Irish who were transported to Barbados were and are called “Redlegs.” Long after Barbados received Irish prisoners, Redneck became a synonym of Cracker, an earlier term that originated in North Britain.

    https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Redleg

    https://borgenproject.org/redlegs-of-barbados/

    https://www.irishamerica.com/2015/10/the-irish-of-barbados-photos/

  15. The more interesting subject is why the Spaniards exaggerated the numbers, which obviously encouraged a “gold rush” as many more came to the New World.

    I’ve always asserted the Moon would be colonised and inhabited by humans a couple decades ago if NASA had had the good insight to salt a little gold among the Moon rock samples they brought back.

    • Replies: @Steve Sailer
  16. Occam’s Razor says that Reich’s estimate is just incorrect.

    • Agree: BB753
    • Replies: @West reanimator
  17. The figure for Puerto Rican inheritance interests me. I always hear the Puerto Ricans discussed as low achievers. Is this accurate? Not to be racist about it, but is it possible they’re handicapped by their genes from the ancient Caribbean folk?

    • Replies: @Hapalong Cassidy
  18. Anon[899] • Disclaimer says:

    Most of the Mexicans who died of disease after the Columbian Exchange died in two large Cocoliztli epidemics. Never heard of Cocoliztli? It turns out that it might have been Salmonella and/or indigenous viral hemorrhagic fever, both unrelated to Europeans.

    https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Cocoliztli_epidemics

    So Smallpox may have killed off 8 million, but Cocoliztli killed off twice that number.

    Everything old is new again:

    After Edward Jenner’s 1796 demonstration that the smallpox vaccination worked, the technique became better known and smallpox became less deadly in the United States and elsewhere. Many colonists and natives were vaccinated, although, in some cases, officials tried to vaccinate natives only to discover that the disease was too widespread to stop. At other times, trade demands led to broken quarantines. In other cases, natives refused vaccination because of suspicion of whites. The first international healthcare expedition in history was the Balmis expedition which had the aim of vaccinating indigenous peoples against smallpox all along the Spanish Empire in 1803. In 1831, government officials vaccinated the Yankton Sioux at Sioux Agency. The Santee Sioux refused vaccination and many died.

    https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Population_history_of_Indigenous_peoples_of_the_Americas

    OT

    Sweden is further gone than I had realized. Snitches get stitches:

    [MORE]

    How gang warfare took over Sweden’s streets
    https://www.spectator.co.uk/article/how-sweden-became-the-most-dangerous-country-in-europe

    [MORE]

    Peculiar things happened in this robbery case. Suddenly the store owner decided that he wasn’t robbed at all. Two store clerks took back their testimonies, blaming bad Swedish, bad memory and mental health problems. They also apologised to the rapper for acting disrespectfully. Such fits of amnesia follow an established pattern in Sweden in what the authorities call Sweden’s ‘vulnerable’ areas.

    In the spring of 2019, two Syrian hairdressers opened a hair salon on the area’s central square. They were soon approached by local gangsters, who demanded ‘tax’. The hairdressers refused, reported this to the police, and two individuals were sentenced for extortion. But the harassment continued. The hair salon was attacked, its windows shattered….

    It turns out that the gangs are stronger than the Swedish state. Police in the end told the two hairdressers to stay away from Jordbro. They have since moved and can now only visit their old neighbourhood with police escort. They carry personal assault alarms and live under police protection.

    The author discusses a “remarkable” finding that when you list Swedish areas with 30 percent more of non-citizens, it exactly matches the police listing of “vulnerable areas,” i.e. shithole migrant crime ghettos.

    Twenty per cent of Sweden’s population is foreign born, and this share has increased at a rapid pace. The equivalent was 11 per cent as recently as in 2000.

    Remember, “foreign born” does not include children of immigrants who are not legacy white Swedes. In ten years it went from 11 percent to 20 percent and the remaining 80 percent includes second generation, who have a high crime rate. There is a demographic inertia at work, fecund migrants vs. child-free whites.

    OT 2

    The UC system will completely phase out the use of standardized tests by 2024.

    The only use that will be allowed is the to create a floor for the guarantee to the top 9 percent of graduates of all high schools. It’s not explained, but I assume that you’ll be guaranteed a spot at UC Merced or the like if you’re in the top 9 percent at your school, as long as your school is not so crappy that your SAT is ridiculously low. I suppose this is to prevent more Kashawn Campbells. But this means that a lot of applicants will still have to take the SAT, doesn’t it?

    https://dailybruin.com/2020/11/06/uc-to-use-test-blind-admissions-for-fall-2021-following-court-decision

    It’s apparently simply established science and conventional wisdom that the SAT is racist. Get a load of this:

    The regents discussed the item for about five hours before finally reaching a decision.

    Alumni Regent Christine Simmons said that decades of data support that standardized tests are exclusionary and discriminatory.

    While Academic Senate chair Kum-Kum Bhavnani agreed that the tests are discriminatory, she said that the senate’s report found that their use in the UC system is not.

    “The main reason we are looking at SATs is because they are racist,” Bhavnani said. “No one disputes that. What the task force found, however, was that the way in which the UC uses them stops them (from) being (discriminatory).”

    I suppose that “racist” here means “inequitable,” which means “disparate impact”/disproportionate representation for any reason.

    https://dailybruin.com/2020/05/21/sat-act-test-scores-no-longer-required-in-uc-admissions-process

    • Replies: @gcochran
  19. Here’s a story I missed from a year ago

    I thought you covered this last year:

    https://www.unz.com/isteve/reich-ancient-dna-shows-that-columbuss-arrival-didnt-kill-as-many-caribbean-indians-as-long-thought

    As far as why there were not more Caribs, hurricanes flatten/flood everything every few decades, so that tends to retard development of anything beyond opportunist/live-for-the-moment culture.

  20. mookoo says:
    @Buzz Mohawk

    These journeys were expensive and required investors. Investors who were looking for a return on their investment. It was pretty disappointing to return to Europe with a cargo hold full of corn and pumpkins. Hence a lot of stories about seeing or hearing of cities of gold when trying to fund the next trip.

    • Replies: @Buffalo Joe
  21. Mactoul says:
    @Buzz Mohawk

    Population size could be estimated for still-surviving populations only. I doubt if any estimate could be made for a population that is wholly extinct now.

    • Replies: @Reg Cæsar
  22. Daniel H says:

    The current population of Haiti and Dominican Republic is 22 million.

    Yikes.

    And the population of Taiwan is approximately 23 million.

    Yikes.

    • Replies: @(((Owen)))
  23. Daniel H says:

    They contributed an estimated 14 percent of the DNA of living people from Puerto Rico,

    Really? So Puerto Ricans are 86% Castillian?

    It is said that the Castilians deported Canarians to Puerto Rico, but I don’t know enough about this, anyway, something doesn’t jibe.

    • Replies: @Flip
  24. dearieme says:
    @Pat Hannagan

    Of course the Ozzie convicts weren’t slaves – they were criminals sentenced to transportation. When their time elapsed they were freed as is usual for prisoners. And their children weren’t hereditary convicts either.

    Are you a fake, pretending to be the stereotypical stupid Irishman? If so, shame on you.

    Our are you claiming that the horrors of real slavery were commonplace? If so, shame again.

  25. mc23 says:
    @sb

    During the Irish Potato Famine there are accounts of people deliberately committing minor crimes that would get them transported to Australia.

    An 1840’s travel slogan, Australia, it’s better then Nothing.

  26. @Pat Hannagan

    Mass transportation of convicts to America from Britain and Ireland began in 1718. Convicts would be shipped to places like Port Tobacco in Maryland or ports in the Virginia Northern Neck so that their seven or 14-year indentures could be auctioned to plantation owners. Most convicts were debtors or common thieves with a few political prisoners thrown in. Murderers were hanged back in Britain. All this fun ended in 1775 and was subsequently relocated to Australia, Bermuda and the Andaman Islands. The American convict experience may have been much different than the Australian so family stories may vary.

  27. Arclight says:
    @Bert

    Makes sense. The Caribbean island I am most familiar with from a dozen visits or so is only able to support its population through the daily arrival of multiple flights from the mother country. Obviously there are fish, but iguanas are the largest animal on the island as there simply isn’t enough rainfall to support the vegetation that is necessary for goats or sheep, nor any meaningful level of farming.

    • Replies: @ThreeCranes
  28. mc23 says:

    I read Samuel Morrison’s biography of Christopher Columbus. When Columbus discovered the Bahamas he described a dug out canoe estimated to be a hundred feet long. This was before the islands were de-forested for sugar plantations.

    The Bahamas are a speck compared to Hispaniola and if they had the manpower to require or use a canoe that size then maybe larger population estimates are in order. Hispaniola is almost the size of Ireland. In other accounts the anecdotal evidence of the explorer’s stories seem reasonable to support their estimates of the native’s numbers.

    On the other hand I’ve heard the a reasonable estimate foe Hunter-Gathers is 1 square mile per person over a given migratory area. Hispaniola is 29000 square miles, tropical so the carrying capacity would be higher for the given area.

    Has anyone ever done a comparison to Polynesian islands?

    • Replies: @Buffalo Joe
    , @Colin Wright
  29. Travis says:

    In the Eastern United States there were also very few Indians when Europeans settlers arrived in the 16th century. In 1607, there were about 10,000 Native Americans within the Coastal Plain territory of Virginia, and 12,000 Indians in the Piedmont.

    Massachusetts had fewer than 20,000 Indians when the pilgrims arrived in 1620. Partly due to European diseases which wiped out half the aboriginal population before the pilgrims landed. Diseases carried by European rats spread rapidly in North America in the decades before European settlers arrived. Rats carried by explorers arrived in North America before European settlers and carried diseases to the Indians.

    The Pilgrims should have been Thankful for a Spirochete. A gruesome disease granted them uninhabited, cleared land and a sweet brook. Yet it’s quite possible that America as we know it would not exist without rat urine and leptospirosis, the disease it spreads. The disease conveniently cleared coastal New England of Native Americans just prior to the Pilgrims’ arrival.

    The Pilgrim leader William Bradford was aware of the death toll from “Indean fever.” His scouts had ventured inland and noted “sculs and bones were found in many places lying still above ground, where their houses and dwellings had been; a very sad spectackle to behould.” It’s estimated as many as nine out of 10 coastal Indians were killed in the epidemic between 1615 and 1619. Without this epidemic the Pilgrims would not have lasted the first winter in Plymouth. The Mayflower would have been assumed to have been lost at sea, since they never arrived at their destination in Virginia.

    • Replies: @Emblematic
  30. anonymous[329] • Disclaimer says:

    The Puerto Rican average for Taino Amerindian DNA may be about 14%, but an outright majority are said to have it. I’d say an awful lot of PRs actually do look part indigenous, with singer JLo’s high cheekbones, tightly bound straight black hair and bronze complexion being more the rule, not the exception. So not exactly the Euro/Spanish phenotype, but not the 5ft Guatemalan Indian look either. Of course the Spaniards complicated (some would say ruined) things even further for the Caribbean by bringing over large numbers of Africans compared with their colonies in Mexico or Peru.

  31. @D. K.

    Neither slavery nor involuntary servitude, except as a punishment for crime whereof the party shall have been duly convicted, shall exist within the United States, or any place subject to their jurisdiction.

    Exactly, the United States did NOT abolish work camps for convicted criminals in 1865, and no doubt that is part of the reason why prisons are referred to as “camps” in contemporary prison argot.

    Parchman farm was founded in 1901 and prisoners were used to clear land for crop cultivation. How was this different from Botany Bay?

    This picture shows inmates hoeing at Parchman Farm.

    • Replies: @Bert
    , @Alden
  32. Alden says:

    Malaria yellow fever syphilis many other tropical diseases bugs bugs bugs ,snakes other animals germs in cuts and wounds multiplying in the tropical heat and humidity tetanus and numerous other health problems caused by year round tropical heat and humidity.

    Are why there were so few people in the Caribbean. And why there was such a high death rate when Europeans and Africans arrived. And why assignment to the Caribbean was considered to risk death fir Europeans

    Dry and desert areas are as hot or hotter than the Caribbean . But a lot healthier because bugs and germs thrive in humidity.

  33. Alden says:
    @D. K.

    A lot of founding stock Americans were convicts and rebels shipped from Britain. In fact the American Revolution was the reason the British settled Australia. A new convict settlement to replace the convict settlement of America.

  34. @sb

    I’ve read that one in five Australians has some convict ancestry and while I realise that the convict experience was extremely variable ( see Port Arthur and other harsh penal settlements ) I’d say that most did their time and then quietly joined the general society . Actually compared to their peers imprisoned back in Britain I’d say that they were the fortunate ones

    There were convicts and then there were convicts–the true sociopathic troublemakers.

    For the guys–and gals–who survived the voyage and their seven (or whatever) years, transportation–like being a slave sent to America (the future US)–was actually a huge demographic win for your lineage.

    • Agree: Bert
    • Replies: @Murray
  35. @Cortes

    Perhaps the population was in the happy position of equilibrium: insufficient numbers to place real stress on its environment, with plentiful fish in the seas, no shortage of easily harvested foods on land and no real pressure to improve things. Disagreement with the neighbours? There’s that little island over there with nobody on it…

    This is my guess as well. Life between 70-80 degrees year round is relatively easy, and they never had to develop the kind of awareness of agricultural seasons and the cycle of planting and harvest that can yield surplusses but which require low time preference and organization.We know in turn that agricultural surplusses are the prerequisite to developing civilizations, in part because they permit skills specialization for people who don’t have to spend all day collecting calories. This doesn’t happen when you can trap some fish, pluck some berries and lounge in the warm sun.

    Also, as others are noting, the Caribbean islands vary widely in their supplies of fresh water. Some islands with modest reserves of fresh water would have naturally low population ceilings, and would make any kind of irrigation difficult or impossible.

  36. @Discordiax

    Occam’s Razor says that Reich’s estimate is just incorrect.

    Why his estimate instead of the several wildly different guesses that others made, with no evidence at all?

    • Agree: anonymouseperson
  37. @Bert

    In 1491 the vertebrate animals available to be hunted were small. …
    Freshwater resources were scant as well.

    Thanks Bert.

    This is the gist of it. The islands–the ones large enough to have any fresh water–are fine for fishing/gathering. But they aren’t great for the development of agriculture without technology–steel implements–and crops/animals–coming in from the outside.

    ~~

    If there’s a single element to the American developmental delay i think it’s basically having a suitable draft animal. The native Mexicans did well with corn (maize) and beans, but lacked a complementary draft animal for labor/manure/meat/milk.

    Eventually Americans would have domesticated the bison to fulfill this role–and settlement and civilization in the midwestern US would have exploded. But it simply had not happened yet.

    • Replies: @Colin Wright
  38. What is the population size estimate based on? Ancient skeletons and the population size of the ancestors who contribute to todays Carribbean people? Could there have been other unrelated pre Colombian populations that made no contribution to modern islanders whose lives briefly overlapped with western colonists? I would think not as that’s only a few hundred years ago and they should have been able to find skeletons.

  39. The great tragedy of the Islands–and of the Americas–was African slavery. The greatest unmerited demographic expansion in the history of the planet. A disaster.

    White people really do have some things to apologize for.

  40. @AnotherDad

    Honestly. Those dead white men owe all present day whites an apology for enabling the Bantu population explosion across the world and for nothing else. Those long dead fellows made plenty of other mistakes, but none that deprives us to this day the way having to deal with the Bantu population explosion across the world does. Soon enough the Bantu population explosion will be a problem for the Chinese and the Māori and everyone else too as they expand everywhere because of immunity to childhood diseases and access to calories they could never have acquired through their own merit, bringing their uncontainable violence and parasitism with them.

    One wonders if someday humanity will realize that everyone vs. white men is not a thing. No one normal of any nonwhite race or alphabet people group cares if white men move into their neighborhood or date their adult children or send kids to their own kid’s schools. But as for blacks… Despite all the media manufactured ire against white men, people have only fake reasons or reasons rooted in envious compulsions for opposing white men, but they have practical reasons relating to long term survival and honest flourishing for opposing black population expansions.

    • Agree: anonymouseperson
  41. The Caribbean islands simply cannot support many people without a whole lot of help from industrialism and global trade. Any sui generis society there will have a hard time accumulating any capital, especially when their farms and villages would be frequently destroyed by hurricanes.

    With the world enter what looks to be a protracted period of economic decline due to demographic inversion, the fate of these islands looks pretty bleak. I would not be surprised if, 300 years from now, they are again the home of none but a few thousand naked cannibals.

  42. Anonymous[658] • Disclaimer says:
    @Pat Hannagan

    Largely Scots rebels, see Jamaican flag surnames etc.

    There was no white “slavery” in Christendom nor the new world for obvious reasons, though these were military prisoners under harsh if not hereditary conditions.

  43. TBA says:
    @SIMP simp

    But what about the now overgrown areas in the Amazon? Archaeologists claim that the remains of buildings and cleared areas must mean that there was a large population once.

    • Replies: @MarkinLA
  44. Anonymous[658] • Disclaimer says:
    @sb

    Of course not. It was a form of penalty/exile.

    Many English and others were indentured servants in the colonies with equally difficult conditions.

  45. TWS says:

    Fishing, whaling, sealing can support large communities. Coastal gleaning becomes your population floor. Except that’s not what the numbers tell us

    The Pacific northwest supported large and small communities. Small communities lived at the sufferance of the powerful. Chief Seattle genocided an entire language group. I’m guessing war and cannibalism seriously messes up large scale food strategies. Whaling and sealing are specialized vocations.

    • Replies: @MarkinLA
  46. “Modern scholars have generally estimated the population at 250,000 to a million people.”

    So then Columbus’ brother came the closest to being accurate in his estimation of Hispaniola’s actual population.

    Why is it so surprising that the Carribbean islands were sparse in population. For the most part, islands don’t contain a large population. They’re islands for a reason.

    Half a millennium ago, another island in the world, Great Britain, had a population of around ca. 4 million. England in 1500 had a total population of around 3 million. Is that really a surprise that most islands had smaller populations back then? Now of course with technological advances, better farming techniques, improved quality of medicine, etc. islands boast of larger populations. But back then it was not really the case pretty much the world over.

    Also, it leads to another question. IF the Caribbean nations’ populations were quite sparse, and, aside from the Aztec, Incas, and Mayan civilizations (which did boast of larger populations), this would tend to put into doubt the North American Indian total populations.

    In other words, John Locke’s argument that the New World populations were quite small can definitely apply to the land that comprises the modern contiguous 48 states, known today as the US.

    No, Virginia (Dare), the original land known as the United States did NOT boast of Indian tribes that exceeded a population of 4 million. And 4 million is a bit of a stretch. Perhaps the total Indian population in 1500 in the US was around 2 million total.

    In other words, England’s population of 3 million in 1500 was larger than the population that resided in what’s today known as the US. After all, Western Europe was so far advanced technologically, scientifically, etc than the New World, particularly the tribes that resided in the US. And if a first world nation such as England had a paltry population of only 3 million, it makes sense to assume that the Indian tribes total populations were much smaller. After all, it’s not as if each tribe (e.g. Mohawks, Iriquois, Algonquin, etc) contained millions of people in it, much less hundreds of thousands. They were originally categorized as tribes, and not nations, for a specific reason: the groups were too small to be considered a legitimate nation. Which wasn’t the case for the Aztecs, Mayans, and the Incas.

    • Agree: anonymouseperson
  47. ‘…… By analyzing the DNA of ancient Indigenous Caribbean people, a study published in Nature on Wednesday by one of us (Professor Reich) makes clear that the population of Hispaniola was no more than a few tens of thousands of people. Almost all prior estimates have been at least tenfold too large…’

    There’s an alternative explanation for this finding. Our ability to analyze DNA is quite recent, and it’s possible at least in principle that our methodology is flawed. For example, I recall reading some study of Tibetan and Han Chinese DNA that made claims that simply contradicted the archeological record.

    So this sort of thing is interesting, but we might want to put an asterisk by the conclusions rather than accepting them as proven fact.

  48. @AnotherDad

    White people really do have some things to apologize for.

    Sorry about the slavery, folks. Won’t do it again. Scouts honor!

    Yes, we do. A relative of mine was responsible for hundreds of deaths in the pacification of northern Nigeria round about 1900, so 50 years before I was born.

    Although the military actions of my relative can be interpreted in retrospect as genocidal, on reading the report of the Governor Sir F. Lugard for 1900-1901 one cannot help being impressed by the vigor and energy of the British administration in eradicating mosquitos, cleaning up rivers, building railroads, eliminating slave-trading, prostitution, and highway robbery, and generally making life better for the average African by promoting a Christian lifestyle.

    How did the British get into Nigeria? The British captured the city of Lagos in 1851 and replaced King Kosoko with Akitoye was because of the former’s refusal to ban the slave trade. Does this get taught in Black History Week?

    The fact is that our (white) ancestors believed they were doing a good thing. A lot of blame has to go to Christianity. If you believed that God was real and that the world was divided into Christians and heathens, then obviously you were not going to be an active campaigner for heathen rights.

    Columbus, on arrival in the New World noted that the locals would make great slaves, but didn’t neglect to forcibly convert them to Christianity so that even if their life was hell, they would go to heaven when it was all over. Not a bad deal!

    It cannot be underestimated how much Columbus was a religious chappie. Even his miscalculation of the distance to Asia was partly based on information from the Bible regarding the Creation and the proportions of land to sea.

    Yes, slavery was bad. Sorry. But if black people had been in charge of the planet from 1492 onwards, would things have turned out any better? Would slavery have been abolished sooner or later?

    Life as a child worker in the dark satanic mills of Northern England during the industrial revolution was no bowl of cherries either, and there was a reason why Victor Hugo’s great novel Les Miserables was not called Happy Days. Charles Dickens himself was subject to what amounted to what today we would call child slavery as he was sent to work in a factory at the age of 12 to pay his family’s debts.

    But white people also abolished the Atlantic slave trade, abolished slavery in the French, British, French, and Spanish empires, and eventually in the US. (If the US had not gone independent, slavery would have been abolished there a generation earlier, like in Canada, but it happened eventually.)

    • Replies: @Boomthorkell
  49. @Bert

    Good point about the smallish animals. Another consequence of this – both on the island and throughout North and South America – was the absence of anything suitable for draft animals. Add to that the fact they had no metals except for the bits of decorative Gold which got them slaughtered, and their only agriculture would be slash/burn.

    Next is the dual problem of climate and seeds. As far south as Hispaniola lies, I doubt if the breeds of corn available to them would thrive. The other agricultural items listed in the Wiki are not very productive.

    Just guessing now, but I suspect the local climate would have made food preservation very, very difficult. Any extra meat from the hunt, or fish from that trip, would have had to be eaten quickly or lost. Ditto for the plants.

    Looks from here like the two professors nailed it with their population figures.

    • Agree: Travis
    • Replies: @Reg Cæsar
  50. Wokechoke says:

    It is a great shame that industrial scale plantations existed in these islands like they did. The islanders did not deserve the displacement by chattel slaves. Also I think that we’ve not learned from Haiti’s example in 1805. Don’t import an homogenous workforce that’s foreign. You will be murdered by the help eventually.

  51. @SIMP simp

    ‘Pre-contact population in the Americas was large only in high altitude areas with temperate climate like the mountains of Central Mexico and the Andes mountains of Peru and Bolivia…’

    Meh. Early explorers reported a densely populated Amazon basin, and recent land-form studies suggest that indeed, there had been extensive agriculture there in the past.

    Isn’t some other explanation possible for the apparent concentration of indigenous populations in mountains? Like, maybe populations living under tropical conditions were even more vulnerable to European diseases?

    • Replies: @Muggles
  52. ‘… By analyzing the DNA of ancient Indigenous Caribbean people, a study published in Nature on Wednesday by one of us (Professor Reich) makes clear that the population of Hispaniola was no more than a few tens of thousands of people…’

    If that were so, it seems improbable that the first explorers would have been impressed by how densely populated the island was.

    Given that, I’m inclined to look for other explanations. Reich’s analysis is flawed? The sole surviving indigenous inhabitants came from an isolated population that somehow escaped the devastation of first contact?

    It’s possible Reich is right. It’s also possible he’s not. I’m suspicious of this tendency to see the conclusions of genetic research as demonstrating facts about the past with absolute certitude — particularly when those ‘facts’ contradict every other bit of data we have.

    • Replies: @dearieme
  53. @AnotherDad

    “The greatest unmerited demographic expansion in the history of the planet. A disaster.”

    The lifetime of bondage bit was pretty bad, too.

    “White people really do have some things to apologize for.”

    Just the mentally lazy white people like you.

  54. @Pat Hannagan

    If you ever want to start a righteous fight in a pub quote this fact and equate the convicts with slavery (which they were..and worse).

    Don’t forget that Britain started sending convicts to Australia in 1788 after it was no longer able to send them to penal colonies in Virginia and Maryland in the United States after 1782 due the the American Revolution.

    Britain sent about 50,000 convicts to the United States between 1717 and 1782.

    Seems to me that the US today has huge numbers of people in its overcrowded prisons, and perhaps needs to start sending them off to Liberia or Alaska or Kenosha.

  55. LP5 says:
    @Buzz Mohawk

    Those inflating Bartholomews and others were in it for the Frequent Sailing Miles.

  56. @AnotherDad

    Slavery was pretty much universal up until fairly recently. White guilt about slavery is moral preening.

    • Agree: Muggles
    • Replies: @William Badwhite
  57. Murray says:
    @AnotherDad

    I have several convicts in my family history. The most notable is Matthew Everingham, who was a law clerk sentenced to transportation for attempting to pawn his employer’s law books. Matthew arrived in Australia on the First Fleet in 1788. In 1791, he married Elizabeth Rymes, transported on the Second Fleet for attempting to pawn bed linens from a rooming house in London.

    In England, Matthew and Elizabeth would have been an impossible match: he, an educated man with a respectable occupation; she, a member of the teeming underclass living on the edge of destitution. In Australia, those distinctions vanished, especially among convicts. And while Australia may have been harsh, it provided a blank canvas for remaking yourself, a universe away from the overcrowded, stinking, oppressive environment of 18th-century England.

    Matthew and Elizabeth had nine surviving children, most of whom themselves had multiple children, and the Everinghams remain a prominent family in Australia to this day. (I am not one of them, being descended from an Everingham granddaughter.) Today, tens of thousands of Australians can trace an ancestral connection to Matthew and Elizabeth.

    Matthew became a farmer and respectable citizen, eventually ending up as a constable on the Hawkesbury River north of Sydney where he met a watery demise chasing bootleggers. A life well lived!

    • Thanks: Old Prude, AnotherDad
  58. nebulafox says:

    The most straightforward answer-I think-is that the people of the New World had been there for less time than people in the Old World, and this reflected itself both in the level of development and the population levels. The latter are unreliable, but I don’t think there’s any reason to doubt that China alone had as many people as the Americas did, or close to it, in 1492.

    It was never really a contest, therefore, when the Europeans arrived.

  59. @Jonathan Mason

    Good points.

    This is a little off topic, but the French also get a lot of crap for North Africa, but there reasoning was not only sound, but literally necessity. The Barbary pirates had depopulated the coasts of Southern Europe through slavery and slaughter, but all that ended (and only ended!) In the 1840s when France conquered modern day Tunisia and the Algerian Coastline.

    Really there only mistake was, when they ethnically cleansed the coastal cities, they did the lazy cop out move of allowing Arabs in as cheap workers (as well as pushing further into the desert.) They could have had a French Mare Nostrum (a small one), but instead they get a hundred years of Arab servants, a decade or two of terrorism, and a class of angry migrant offspring.

    • Agree: AnotherDad
  60. Locke wasn’t completely off base in saying the New World was a vacuum if we consider he had mostly North America in mind–the population of now U.S./Canada was a fraction of that in Mesoamerica, so when the great smallpox die-offs occurred, there was a lot of open land for settlers to move into. Post-revolutionary U.S. history generally involved even formidable Native groups (Iroquois, Cherokee) conceding large swaths of land at regular intervals for their far more demographically robust Anglo neighbors.

    In Mexico, on the other hand, the societies there were so numerous that even given the die-offs, some herd immunity developed in enough survivors, and a mixed race mestizo community formed in such numbers, that the population mixed heavily.

    A major academic fight (lefty on lefty, naturally) occurs between those who argue that the Taino peoples truly did die out and that those claiming ancestry is a myth, with those who argue that significant Taino ancestry exists in most Latin American and Caribbean people of color. I think it’s mostly a tactical argument on both sides, with neither wanting the bargaining clout of the POCs to be undermined.

  61. Mr. Anon says:

    OT – California being very California-ey. A large-scale smash-and-grab flash-mob descends on a Nordstroms in Walnut Creek:

    https://www.zerohedge.com/political/shots-fired-flash-mob-raid-nordstrom-upscale-california-town

    California, All Dreams Welcome

    https://www.visitcalifornia.com/

  62. @AnotherDad

    ‘If there’s a single element to the American developmental delay i think it’s basically having a suitable draft animal. The native Mexicans did well with corn (maize) and beans, but lacked a complementary draft animal for labor/manure/meat/milk.’

    It’s worth pointing out that draft animals weren’t simply given to the rest of humanity.

    They had to be developed. The original wild cattle were huge and belligerent; not exactly the docile, reasonably sized draft oxen of later millennia. Conversely, horses were too small; they had to be bred to be larger and stronger.

    I hold the less advanced state of American Indian civilization was simply because it had started later. As it was, they were just about reaching the ancient Sumer et al level of civilization. Had they been left alone for another six thousand years, it’s possible they’d have gotten to where we are now.

  63. Zoos says:

    Speaking of the Caribbean, last night more primitives raided a Nordstroms located in a notorious third world shithole. Kind of hard to feel sorry for Nordstroms, since they were stupid enough to place a store in that literal crap heap of suffering and villainy, super-charged by naked feral negrocity…

  64. Bert says:
    @Jonathan Mason

    You needn’t go back so far. Prison labor still exists indoors and outdoors in the largest Southern prisons, but only on the grounds of a prison. Through 1964 at least, in Alabama there was still road shoulder maintenance by prisoners under armed guard. Most of the prisoners on the ROW that I would see were not restrained, but occasionally one would have shackles on with his arms free for swinging a sling blade. In Mississippi county prison road crews existed into the 1980’s, and maybe still do.

    • Replies: @Bert
  65. @Cortes

    One thing is for sure, the Taino women were a lot more successful in passing along their mtDNA than the men were with their YDNA.

  66. Bert says:
    @AnotherDad

    How do you apologize for the actions of a distant ancestor, or say with a Norwegian ancestor, someone who though Caucasian had nothing to do with African slavery? And why do you apologize to the beneficiaries of “The greatest unmerited demographic expansion in the history of the planet.” And of course the better living conditions for those beneficiaries during 400+ years would seem to obviate any apology.

    Logically, one only can regret African slavery as a disaster.

  67. Prosa123 says:

    Even NYC still uses prison labor. Inmates from the city jail perform burials at the Hart’s Island potter’s field. Despite the depressing nature of the work – more than half of the burials are of infants – it’s a highly desirable job given only to inmates with no discilpliary infractions.

  68. @Zoos

    https://www.amazon.com/Shot-All-Pieces-Outlaws-West-ebook/dp/B08WJSFCWN

    Four strangers crossed the river into Northfield, Minnesota, at about 10a.m. on September 7, 1876. “They came over the bridge mounted on four fine horses,” recalled druggist George Bates. “There was a reckless and bold swagger about them that seems to indicate that they would be rough and dangerous fellows to handle.” Whatever it was about them, Bates didn’t care for their looks.

    Things went wrong almost from the start.

    When Cole rode into town, he saw a large crowd of people on the street. The plan was if people were milling about, they should ride out of town. Instead, Frank, Bob, and Charlie Pitts stood outside the bank talking and laughing.

    “Surely, the boys will not go into the bank with so many people about,” Cole told himself. “I wonder why they did not ride on through.”

    As they got closer, Frank and the others started to move. “They are going in,” said Miller.

    “If they do, the alarm will be given as sure as there is a hell,” exclaimed Cole.

    Moments later, Cole heard someone scream out, “robbers in the bank.” Then, his world fell apart.

    Miller shooed J. S. Allen away as he tried to enter the bank. The man ran down the street screaming, “Get your guns, boys. They’re robbing the bank.”

    Henry Wheeler took up the cry, shouting, “Robbery! Robbery!” Cole told him to get off the street and fired a shot over his head to get him moving.

    Elias Stacy shot Clell Miller in the face with buckshot just as he mounted his horse. Anselm Manning wasn’t the kind of guy you’d expect to be a hero, but he grabbed a shotgun and joined in the fray. One of his shots killed Charlie Pitts’ horse.

    “Meanwhile, the street was getting uncomfortably hot,” said Cole. “Every time I saw anyone with a bead on me, I would drop off my horse and try to drive the shooter inside.”

    A war was breaking loose. The gang fired into the air to scare the citizens off the street. However, the townspeople were shooting to kill.

    Kyle Rittenhouse represents ordinary American courage from the past, and that is how they dealt with multiple outlaws.

    • Agree: AnotherDad
  69. Flip says:
    @Daniel H

    From Wikipedia

    “According to the National Geographic Genographic Project, “the average Puerto Rican individual carries 12% Native American, 65% West Eurasian (Mediterranean, Northern European and/or Middle Eastern) and 20% Sub-Saharan African DNA.”

  70. Unit472 says:

    One might think hurricanes would have been a problem but you’d have to compare island indigenous populations with those of Florida to see if that could have been a factor. Hispaniola is mountainous with some peaks rising over 10,000 feet. Those tear apart hurricanes quickly. Florida, otoh is flat, so a Cat 5 can cross the entire peninsula and still be a Cat 2 when it reaches the other side. Besides, in the modern world, hurricanes destroy human structures and not much else. The pre Columbian Caribbean did not seem to invest a lot in buildings or coastal real estate. Presumably the natives would notice bigger than normal swells and have enough sense to drag their boats ( perhaps their only major capital investment) to higher ground which was available there if not in Florida.

    Also one might wonder what the pre Columbian population was in Trinidad, a sizable Caribbean island but happily, for them, not in the hurricane belt.

    • Replies: @MarkinLA
  71. @AnotherDad

    It looks like a lot of people missed your point. But maybe it didn’t matter; globalists are picking up right where the slave traders left off. Who knows – maybe Northern Europe will have more Blacks than Virginia in the not too distant future?

    Maybe a clearer way to express the sentiment: “if only the Southerners had picked their own damn cotton”

    • Replies: @Bert
  72. @The Alarmist

    In Heinlein’s “The Man Who Sold the Moon,” the entrepreneur who pays for the trip sends some diamonds along to salt the rock samples from the moon, but the astronaut reports back that the surface of the moon is liberally sprinkled with diamonds already.

  73. MarkinLA says:
    @TBA

    Same as the Maya. However, once the civilization collapsed, the population followed and all of it before the Europeans came. This happens everywhere.

  74. MarkinLA says:
    @TWS

    What is large? Some people want you to believe that there were tens of millions living in what is the Continental US and they were all wiped out by white man’s diseases. I don’t think there is anything close to proof for that.

    • Replies: @TWS
    , @obwandiyag
  75. Mr. Blank says:

    I felt like I should direct your attention to this, Steve:

    https://www.orlandosentinel.com/news/florida/os-ne-black-entrepreneurs-in-miami-feel-bypassed-by-the-tech-boom-20211121-ej35m7mfnzgxrfmjasbojwkqpy-story.html

    First line of the article: “Black hair care is often overlooked by venture capitalists, a world that remains distant from Black and Brown communities.”

    It’s like an AI wrote an article just for your blog.

  76. dearieme says:
    @Colin Wright

    I suspect that the great weakness of aDNA research is the inability to be confident that the samples you’ve got are representative of the populations of the time. I grant that aDNA from one body tells you about that person’s ancestors too, but if he’s not representative of the population your inferences might still be wrong.

    • Replies: @Steve Sailer
  77. MarkinLA says:
    @Unit472

    The biggest problem for the population with a hurricane is not necessarily that it blows your house down but that it detroys your food reserves and the bugs come out to destroy what the water hasn’t. That will happen in the higher elevations as well.

    • Agree: Johann Ricke
  78. Muggles says:
    @Bert

    Another point not mentioned yet (though I’m not through all the commentary) is the Caribbean is rife with annual hurricanes.

    We know how destructive they are, flooding and destroying anything near the sea. The sea is where most of their food was obtained. They had to regularly move to higher ground with less food.

    Coastal areas in the Gulf Coast were also lightly populated in North America.

    Not only did hurricanes prevent them from building non portable settlements (a few existed on higher ground in Florida or miles inland) but malaria and yellow fever was rampant.

    Florida, the US Gulf Coast and some parts of the South weren’t heavily populated as a result of these conditions. Until about the 20th century.

    Also, Hunt-Gatherer populations have lower population growth rates due to the longer lactation period for females nursing their young while families are required to regularly move away. Compared to sedentary agricultural populations. Small children can be weaned more quickly from settled villages where food is grown or raised. (Women aren’t fertile while lactating.)

    • Replies: @S. Anonyia
  79. @R.G. Camara

    RG, The Amish keep a farm community humming along with passed down learning and hard work and solid family units. Don’t know amout their IQs but formal education ends around eighth grade.

    • Replies: @MarkinLA
  80. Muggles says:
    @AnotherDad

    White people really do have some things to apologize for.

    Gee, I hate to pile on here but…

    Who do you think sold those African slaves to the slavers? Not Whites.

    Slavery has been around since the earliest recorded history. Wasn’t invented by Whites.

    Africans are still selling each other into slavery (see Libya).

    To apologize for something you never did is stupid and wrong. Do you apologize for being born?

    This kind of nonsense renders the word “apology” meaningless.

    Inducing fake “guilt” into others (mainly middle class Whites) is the current tactic of the neo commie Woke left. Please go elsewhere with that brain poison for the weak minded.

    • Replies: @Kat Grey
  81. @dearieme

    Maybe commoners were cremated and only nobility were buried? That might explain the very high degree of interrelation among the islands…

    • Replies: @dearieme
  82. @mookoo

    mookoo, Columbus brought back sugar cane and tobacco. Sugar cane was the cruel crop that cost the lives of millions of slaves.

    • Replies: @dearieme
  83. Anonymous[658] • Disclaimer says:
    @Some Guy

    I knew I read it here a year ago ?

    The outrage for academia is the sort of POC minder for the publication, though he may be an execellent scholar of sociology and Ive not read his work.

  84. Muggles says:
    @Colin Wright

    Early explorers reported a densely populated Amazon basin, and recent land-form studies suggest that indeed, there had been extensive agriculture there in the past.

    Isn’t some other explanation possible for the apparent concentration of indigenous populations in mountains? Like, maybe populations living under tropical conditions were even more vulnerable to European diseases?

    The Amazonian evidence for agricultural development dates back well over 10,000 years ago. That in itself is a mystery. What they find are apparent man made areas that seem to have been cropped.

    But the populations there now don’t date that far back, as their genetics show.

    So those populations you mention were long gone by the time Europeans arrived, many millennia later. None of the current locals have any clue about the cropping.

    I don’t think “tropical populations” were any more vulnerable to European diseases than anyone else never exposed to those before. Europeans, on the other hand, were/are highly vulnerable until recently to tropical diseases that most of the natives can and did survive.

    • Replies: @gcochran
  85. @mc23

    mc23, I am currently wading through “Columbus, the four voyages” by Laurence Bergreen, off the cheap table at the library sale. He mentions dugouts, well crafted, “carrying forty or fifty men” and using paddles, which apparently were unknown to Columbus and his crew. The islands also had monkeys, which people do hunt and eat.

  86. Bert says:

    I’m pretty sure Britain wasn’t sending convicts after 1775 because after that date they never controlled more than cities, specifically New York, Boston, Philadelphia, Newport RI, Wilmington NC, and Charleston, the last five only briefly. The hinterland was free of new transportees and, best of all, free of Brits except for those in the ineffectual wandering armies and those who had the good judgement to desert. Several hundred of the latter saw the light during the withdrawal from Philadelphia.

  87. MarkinLA says:
    @Buffalo Joe

    Did the Amish create enough of surplus to provide for all the coal miners, oil drillers, steel workers, and factory workers that make a modern state function?

    Small scale subsistence farming is practiced in many places around the world. The crop yields are probably what they were 200 years ago. Every now and then somebody notices a pattern and some improvement is made. The pace is much slower than with modern scientific agriculture.

    • Replies: @Buffalo Joe
  88. Bert says:
    @Anonymous Jew

    If only (((Aaron Lopez))) and his coreglionists of Rhode Island had not been such greedy scum.

    https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Aaron_Lopez

    “Between 1761 and 1774, Lopez was involved in the slave trade.[9] Historian Eli Faber determined Lopez underwrote 21 slave ships during a period in which Newport sent a total of 347 slave ships to Africa.[10]”

    • Replies: @Reg Cæsar
    , @Anonymous Jew
  89. @Muggles

    The Gulf Coast and Atlantic Deep South coastal plain were fairly populated despite the danger of hurricanes and mosquitos, even well before the 20th century. New Orleans was by far the largest city in the Confederacy, Charleston the second largest, Mobile 4th, and Savannah 6th. All in hurricane-prone swampy areas.

    • Replies: @MarkinLA
  90. @Mactoul

    Population size could be estimated for still-surviving populations only. I doubt if any estimate could be made for a population that is wholly extinct now.

    Don’t they do this for the Wrangell Island mammoths?

    • Replies: @Mactoul
  91. Im calling bs on both the extreme numbers regarding Hispaniola:
    4 million (overestimate)
    tens of thousands (underestimate).

    • Replies: @Anonymous
  92. @Zachary Smith

    Good point about the smallish animals.

    Insularity, in the literal sense, often leads populations away from the norm toward the extremes, i.e., dwarfism and gigantism. Indeed, animals will cross the norm toward the opposite extreme. Examples are the dodo and island elephants.

    https://en.m.wikipedia.org/wiki/Foster%27s_rule

    Conversely, Hawaii is the third-least-obese state. However, this doesn’t distinguish Hawaiians from Hawai’ians like the late Bruddah Iz.

    https://247wallst.com/special-report/2021/09/30/americas-most-obese-states-2/2/

  93. @Bert

    If only (((Aaron Lopez))) and his coreglionists of Rhode Island had not been such greedy scum.

  94. @Tono Bungay

    I always figured that Puerto Rico, being much smaller and having less viable farmland than Cuba, got a much worse sort of Spanish settler than Cuba did.

    • Replies: @Steve Sailer
    , @Kat Grey
  95. @MarkinLA

    MarkinLA, The Amish farms in Pa and Ohio can be quite large, not so much here in WNY, but in the local supermarkets, including Wegman’s, you can find commercially grown,processed and packaged Amish products such as turkey, chicken, eggs, beef and cheese. At the nearby Amish bulk store most products are Amish produced. Not too many Amish in Ca.?

    • Replies: @obwandiyag
  96. @Bert

    As soon as I typed “globalists” I thought here comes the Jooooos…and to be fair you’re correct. But it takes two to cuck.

  97. TWS says:
    @MarkinLA

    Neah Bay had between three and ten thousand before disease. That’s one village. Hard to be sure how many there really were long-term. Certainly they had good resources. I imagine they were still recovering from the virgin field epidemics right up until the treaty 1856 scrambled the smaller tribes.

    • Replies: @MarkinLA
  98. dearieme says:
    @Steve Sailer

    Zactly. Maybe a warrior class, maybe a priestly class, anyway an unrepresentative class.

    At least in the Caribbean you know it’s not a class of wandering smiths. What if burial were reserved for notable sailors/navigators? Then indeed you might see the same sort of people on the different islands. Maybe in an archipelago like that the notable warriors were also the notable sailors/navigators: admirals not generals.

  99. dearieme says:
    @Buffalo Joe

    No Columbus, or some later European, took sugar to the New World.

    • Thanks: Buffalo Joe
    • Replies: @Cortes
  100. Jennifer Lopez is a “singer”? Coulda fooled me.

  101. @AnotherDad

    White people really do have some things to apologize for.

    Nah, it’s that bastard Yakub.

  102. @Hapalong Cassidy

    For example, the world’s chess champion a century ago, Capablanca, was a Cuban. Cuba was the jewel in the crown of the Spanish empire. Havana is a natural harbor on the north side of the island, so it gets cooling breezes from the north but ships are protected against big waves.

  103. Cortes says:
    @dearieme

    From Wikipedia

    Columbus brought sugarcane to the Caribbean during his second voyage to the Americas, initially to the island of Hispaniola (modern day Haiti and the Dominican Republic). In colonial times, sugar formed one side of the triangle trade of New World raw materials, along with European manufactured goods, and African slaves. Sugar, often in the form of molasses, was shipped from the Caribbean to Europe or New England, where it was used to make rum. The profits from the sale of sugar were then used to purchase manufactured goods, which were then shipped to West Africa, where they were bartered for slaves. The slaves were then brought back to the Caribbean to be sold to sugar planters. The profits from the sale of the slaves were then used to buy more sugar, which was shipped to Europe.

    • Thanks: Buffalo Joe, dearieme
    • Replies: @Alden
  104. How would “analyzing” “ancient DNA” allow you to categorically state the population of a Caribbean island 500 years ago. What? You dig up some bones, do a DNA chart and/or graph on them, and then go, “See. No people.” That works for me.

    • Agree: Alden
  105. Alden says:
    @Jonathan Mason

    Convicts are not slaves. They are prisoners. As far as the work camps you mentioned; all prisoners work. Even if they are in city jail for more than a few days. In the old days prisoners grew their own food. Some state prisons still have the farms. The prisoners cook their own food. And unload the food from delivery trucks and store it. And wash the dishes and pots and pans. And take out the garbage and clean the kitchen. And do their laundry. And make their beds. And sweep mop and scrub. And put clean towels and sheets in closets and pass them out to other prisoners. And gather the dirty linens for the laundry And work in the prison offices And work in the prison hospital And work as mechanics. And work in the library and law library. And assist the chaplain. And coach the sports team. And care for the popular weight lifting equipment.

    What? You think they should get maid service?

    There’s not much real manufacturing done in American prisons by not slaves , but prisoners.
    Prison manufacturing was short lived. Because back when working class men were men, not wimps, the labor unions lobbied and pressured the state governments not to have prison industries. The manufacturers lobbied the state governments to have prison industries. Because manufacturers wanted to set up these factories in the prisons.

    That was late 19th early 20th century like 140 years ago.

    Congratulations though, you’ve learned to use google. Now you don’t have to make things up any more

    • Replies: @Bill Jones
  106. Mactoul says:
    @Reg Cæsar

    I suppose required DNA could be obtained from bones. In that case, I guess extinct populations could be estimated.

  107. Alden says:
    @AnotherDad

    Something happened around noon today. Waukesha WI 75K population west of Milwaukee. Annual Christmas parade. An SUV 3 men drive into the parade at least 30 injured. Hit a dance troop of 9-12 year old girls first and just kept going. One suspect in custody.

    Couple Nazi KKK posts that it was 3 black men. Reports didn’t say White or Hispanic. I don’t have aTV was listening to you tube music it ended and news casts came on.

    Absolutely disgusting. The worst was Fox. Had a retired detective pontificating on audio so I didn’t have to look. The most illiterate mush mouth black accent. Couldn’t stand the gughing and gaghing So moved on. City police chief stated they had a suspect in custody. Many questions Not his race of course but. Is he a local? A person with a grudge? Chief kept saying can’t say anything yet.

    We’ll know the race of the suspects in a couple days. Because the atrocity will disappear from the news Like the mass attack at the Wisconsin state fair a few years ago.

    The movement feeding and breeding of black Africans Out of Africa might just be the worst thing that happened the world.

    • Agree: JMcG
  108. Alden says:
    @Cortes

    Sugar was the early modern equivalent of oil.

  109. @obwandiyag

    obie, Science. We have to believe it, Faith not so much.

  110. Cato says:
    @Buzz Mohawk

    Climate Change might have had something to do with what happened in the Caribbean. The Little Ice Age began about 800 years ago — though I have never heard any speculation about its effect on Caribbean populations.

    I think the current view is that the Anasazi were exterminated by cannibal invaders related to the Aztecs.

    • Replies: @(((Owen)))
  111. gcochran says:
    @Anon

    Paratyphoid – from the Old world. Deadlier to the Amerindians.

  112. @obwandiyag

    Here is a link to the Nature paper:

    https://reich.hms.harvard.edu/sites/reich.hms.harvard.edu/files/inline-files/SirakS_2020.06.01.126730v1.full_.pdf

    If you’re like me, most of that is going to be over your head. Sometimes we must rely on the work of experts. If they have no ax to grind on a particular issue, all the better.

    I went looking for later article to see if anybody had sqawked, and found this:

    Ancient DNA analysis sheds new light on the Caribbean March 24, 2021
    https://www.archeotravelers.com/en/2021/03/24/ancient-dna-analysis-sheds-new-light-on-the-caribbean/

    No complaints in sight, so I assume this is a good bit of analysis.

    • Agree: Hugo Silva
  113. @mc23

    ‘Has anyone ever done a comparison to Polynesian islands?’

    I forget the exact numbers, but pre-contact, Hawaii was apparently quite densely populated.

    There are supposedly all kinds of traces of agriculture and settlement all over the Big Island — in areas that ceased to be cultivated at all once the population plunged.

    I still find the notion that Hispaniola had a population of twenty-thirty thousand pre-contact improbable. After all, the Caribs may have been ferocious raiders — I doubt if they were pursuing campaigns of relentless genocide extending into the interior.

    It all leads me to question the validity of the DNA research as much as the validity of the historical record.

  114. gcochran says:
    @Muggles

    They faced both African and European diseases. Both malaria and smallpox.

  115. @MarkinLA

    50 million in the New World, north and south.

    New England had a population glut–small village running into small village running into small village. The entire Amazon was heavily populated. The mounds of the Mississippi Valley evidence large population centers.

    I know. You watch TV. TV just shows buffalo-hunters drifting across an empty landscape.

    Just because you saw it on TV doesn’t make it right.

    • Agree: BB753
  116. @Zoos

    It’s like a signal. Anything like the Rittenhouse verdict, and it’s free shopping time for blacks.

  117. @Zoos

    ‘…Kind of hard to feel sorry for Nordstroms, since they were stupid enough to place a store in that literal crap heap of suffering and villainy, super-charged by naked feral negrocity…’

    Well, note that Walnut Creek is actually quite a ways from the nearest ‘feral negrocity.’

    …what really makes this sort of thing possible is the collective failure of the rest of us to resist.

  118. Not Raul says:

    Let’s do a back of the envelope estimate.

    The Hadza (a group of hunter-gatherers in Africa) had a population density of about 0.24 per square kilometer.

    https://pubmed.ncbi.nlm.nih.gov/1443092/

    Hispanola has about 76,000 square kilometers.

    Multiply the two, and you get 18,000 people.

    So, assuming that the pre-Columbian people of Hispanola didn’t have large scale intensive agriculture, like the Aztecs did, a few tens of thousands seems reasonable.

    Also, there might have been a shortage of meat, like in certain areas in and around New Guinea, so there might have been some cannibalism, which might also have helped to keep the population from getting too big.

  119. @Daniel H

    The current population of Haiti and Dominican Republic is 22 million.

    Yikes.

    And the population of Taiwan is approximately 23 million.

    Yikes.

    Together bigger than Canada. Individually larger than Canada was in the 1990s when they embarked on their ethnic replacement mass immigration campaign against the white Canadian population.

    • Replies: @anonymouseperson
  120. @Cato

    I think the current view is that the Anasazi were exterminated by cannibal invaders related to the Aztecs.

    Dendrochronology reveals that a drought in the desert southwest occurred with little or no rain anywhere between 1275 and 1301. The Anasazi, aside from a few tiny cities built under the huge slow reservoir of Black Mesa in northeast Arizona where the springs still flowed with fossil water, either starved to death with failed crops or migrated out. The Hopi tribes living under Black Mesa are the last of the Anasazi.

    In the twentieth century, Black Mesa was strip mined for coal and the coal was shipped on a dedicated railroad to the shores of Powell Reservoir, beneath which a thousand years of Anasazi history in a thousand Anasazi settlements was drowned and ruined to provide electricity to the cities of Arizona. There it was burned in Navajo Generating Station. Then the coal ran out and the power plant was closed. And Powell Reservoir exposes two hundred feet of a bathtub ring because the thirst for power and water in Arizona and California is such that it will probably never fill again.

    For fifty years of pretending that we can live in the desert like it’s England, wasting water and air conditioning glass buildings, we destroyed the mesa that made long term civilizational survival possible and ruined the river and history of the people who lived here. And we left nothing behind but ruin, destroying it all in the blink of an eye. Now Arizona will become more and more unlivable as we crank up the heat on the already plenty hot climate. This time even the Hopi won’t have succor.

    The Shoshone-Ute tribes of Wyoming, Utah, and Oregon share a distant linguistic relation to the Anasazi and their expansion occurred in the 1300s.

    The Aztec tribe of Mexico migrated south from a great city (probably Chaco Canyon, NM) speaking an Anasazi language and first arrived in Anáhuac—now known as Mexico City—in 1325 with a prophecy about an eagle alighting on a cactus. They found it, or a close enough semblance, and founded the Aztec Empire.

    So we can make pretty good guesses that the Anasazi survived somewhere.

    • Thanks: Cortes, Buzz Mohawk
    • Replies: @JMcG
  121. JMcG says:
    @(((Owen)))

    Can you recommend a book or article that fleshes this out? I’m very interested. Thank you.

  122. @Alden

    Congratulations though, you’ve learned to use google. Now you don’t have to make things up any more

    You forgot the coda;

    They will do it for you.

  123. MarkinLA says:
    @S. Anonyia

    Relatively speaking. What were the actual populations of those cities and the populations of the surrounding rural areas. How did they compare to NYC, Philadelphia, or Boston? They also had access to a fairly modern way of life. However, the population of the Confereracy was dwarfed by that of the North. That is why a slave counted as 3/5 when it came to apportioning the House of Representatives.

    Those cities you mention were all significant hubs of transport of goods into and out of the South. That is significant.

    • Replies: @Colin Wright
    , @S. Anonyia
  124. MarkinLA says:
    @obwandiyag

    You have made statements without any real proof. There is an excavated Mississipian settlement of about 10-15,000 that I am aware of but it died out in the 1300s.

    There were billions and billions, and they even had a McDonalds. Thats, about the level of proof you have. Yes, there were civilization in the jungles of Mexico and some people think the Amazon. However, they all collapsed before the europeans came so they don’t coun’t.

  125. MarkinLA says:
    @TWS

    It’s a big difference 3-10 thousand even if true. Now, how do you get to 60 million? How many of those villages do you need? How do you deal with all the refuse and disease it causes?

    Even Europe with just the millions in the single digits could not be handled efficiently.

  126. @Pat Hannagan

    Catherine Austin-Fitts reckoned that the problem with slavery was that it didn’t fit in with the increasing financialization of economies because of the impossibility to perfect collateral.
    The covid bio-passport, soon to be chip, solves that problem.

    • Replies: @Art Deco
  127. Art Deco says:
    @Bill Jones

    Pretty silly thesis. Finance accounts for a single-digit share of value-added.

    • Replies: @Bill Jones
  128. @Wade Hampton

    Slavery was pretty much universal up until fairly recently. White guilt about slavery is moral preening.

    Very true. But I think the disaster AD was referring to was bringing blacks to North America, South America, or just out of Africa at all.

  129. @obwandiyag

    obi, who you calling boy. Stay safe. I like your comments.

  130. @Pat Hannagan

    I think a popular Sabatini’s novel, “Captain Blood” (and later, a movie) is based on such experiences…. Although, Blood was an Irish living in England.

  131. HA says:
    @Dave Pinsen

    The link to the article on Las Casas is actually here.

  132. @MarkinLA

    ‘That is why a slave counted as 3/5 when it came to apportioning the House of Representatives.’

    Should we return to that formula or just not count blacks at all?

    It’s an interesting question. After all, if we do disenfranchise blacks, if we still count them, it would give the whites in the districts in which the blacks reside disproportionate power. On the other hand, the districts are still going to need clean water, roads, etc. They should have representation proportionate to their population.

    • Replies: @Bill Jones
  133. Escher says:
    @Buzz Mohawk

    If you dig deep enough you will find rusting hulks of Anasazi SUVs and other gas guzzlers.

    • Replies: @Buzz Mohawk
  134. @Escher

    The Navajos there now love to drive pickup trucks and drink beer at the same time. At least they did when I was hitchhiking there 40 years ago. We got along great.

    • Agree: JMcG
  135. It’s rather curious why the population wasn’t larger. The population of Mexico/Guatemala was sizable, judging by the huge number of large ruins under the forest. (And the population of Peru was big, too, judging by all the terraces for growing potatoes that you can see carved into mountainsides.)

    Was the Malthusian ceiling low in the Caribbean? Was warfare constant? When Columbus arrived, the Tainos were terrified of the Caribs. But why didn’t they get better at defense?

    Is it curious? The population density of most of the North American mainland and conical South America were low. Southern Mexico/Guatemala/Belize and Peru were relatively high. What would the economy of the Caribbean Islands have been pre-sugar? Fishing and gathering whatever fruit is native to the islands? Once the sugar boom dissolved, there was massive surplus labor in the Caribbean. That’s why Marcus Garvey went to NYC. I don’t think it would be surprising if the carrying capacity of the islands had been pretty low in pre-Columbian times.

    On the other hand, the issue of the Caribs vs Tainos/Arawaks is interesting in itself. The Caribs, as I understand, had been moving up the Antilles from the South American mainland, jumping to Trinidad, then the Windward Island and then the Leewards. If not for the European arrival, they would have moved into the Greater Antilles–Puerto Rico, Hispaniola, and Cuba–next.

    I guess that the competition and warfare on the mainland–Guyana/Venezuela–was much more intense, making the Caribs evolved “supermen” at least in comparison with the previously isolated, relatively peaceable Arawaks though maybe the Caribs were themselves fleeing even more potent competitors when they began to move up the Windwards. There was no time for the Arawaks to evolve a more martial character, and the base material was inadequate in any case. Hence their rapid ethnic cleansing from the Lesser Antilles at the hands of the Caribs.

    Mel Gibson should do an Apocalypto II about that.

  136. @Arclight

    “there simply isn’t enough rainfall to support the vegetation that is necessary for goats or sheep, nor any meaningful level of farming.”

    The long and short of it, right there.

  137. Anonymous[658] • Disclaimer says:
    @Anonymous12890

    Right, but you have no scholarly expertise.

    Where are the bones. Large settlements ?

  138. @MarkinLA

    No disputing that the South was underpopulated and far less industrialized relative to the North throughout the 1800s, I was just pointing out that *within* the South historically most of the urbanized areas were located in low-lying coastal regions, which the first commenter claimed were inhospitable/unpopulated. The South may not have had a large population, but it wasn’t like they were living in the hills to avoid hurricanes and disease like the commenter implied.

  139. @obwandiyag

    Just because you say something doesn’t make it right either.

  140. @(((Owen)))

    So true and so sad. The Liberal party is the great villain here.

  141. @Art Deco

    The point of finanialization is not adding value, it’s diverting it. The Credit card industry only clips 2% but somehow it’s worth their while.

    Murray Rothbard, in background info in his “Case Against the Fed” does a nice history of the shenanigans of the banks. IIRC 1850 was a watershed year for them achieving legislation that conflated fantasy with reality. They’ve been at it for a long time .

    • Replies: @Art Deco
  142. @Colin Wright

    They should have representation proportionate to their population.

    How about representation inversely related to their population’s burden on society?

  143. Art Deco says:
    @Bill Jones

    The point of finanialization is not adding value, it’s diverting it.

    No, the point of finance is providing credit.

  144. Kat Grey says:
    @Hapalong Cassidy

    Cubans in the US tend to be more European in appearance than the typical Puerto Rican. Ricky Martin notwithstanding.

  145. Kat Grey says:
    @Muggles

    There were a number of free blacks who owned plantations and slaves in the New World. Are their descendants being forced to feel guilty?

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