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Which One Is Austria and Which One Is Australia?
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One of the many weird aspects of the pandemic is that two of the real success stories are Australia and Austria, which despite their similar names aren’t particularly similar. One is a small landlocked Northern Hemisphere country in the middle of Europe, sharing a border with Italy. And one is a giant Southern Hemisphere island in the middle of nowhere, but with lots of contact with China. And yet, here are their daily new cases trends:

Which is which?

Answer in the Comments.

 
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  1. The double-peaked top graph going up to 600 is Australia and the single-peaked lower graph going up to 1500 is Austria.

    At least, I think.

    • Replies: @res
    @Steve Sailer

    That would have been my guess. Based on the >2x difference in peaks. Because, island?

    Replies: @res

    , @Reg Cæsar
    @Steve Sailer


    The double-peaked top graph going up to 600 is Australia and the single-peaked lower graph going up to 1500 is Austria.

    At least, I think.
     

    It's a lot easier to prevent rickets in Australia, skin cancer in Austria.

    despite their similar names
     
    Ironically, Australia means "southern country" and Austria, a clumsily Latinized Österreich, means "eastern realm".


    Who says there are no good new folk tunes?


    https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=-Qm8FMnD-gQ

    https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=EOpxdUjPiAs

    , @The Alarmist
    @Steve Sailer

    You shouldn't ask questions where you don't already know the answer.

    The top one is Australia.

    , @Forbes
    @Steve Sailer

    As it's flu season in Austria (northern hemisphere)--and not-flu season in Australia (southern hemisphere), there should be a noticeable difference.

  2. Australia’s military at one point bought that really funky-looking reinvention of the rifle by Steyr of Austria. They decided to help people tell them apart by calling the antipodal ones “Aus-Steyrs.”

    • Replies: @Diversity Heretic
    @J.Ross

    Australia also adapted the British Sten machine pistol into an Austen.

    Replies: @animalogic

    , @Joe Stalin
    @J.Ross

    https://i271.photobucket.com/albums/jj123/Rockyrhodes_77/49469429.jpg

    Replies: @J.Ross

    , @Stealth
    @J.Ross

    The AUG has thus far proven to be a competent design. It might be funny looking to us, but France and England also issue bullpup style rifles to their troops.

    Replies: @J.Ross, @JMcG

  3. Correct Steve, the top bar graph is Australia, with 5 times the population of Austria.

    • Replies: @The Alarmist
    @Momus

    More like with just under 3x the population of Österreich.

  4. Anonymous[751] • Disclaimer says:

    Hey, Steve.

    Heres the thing about your weird little friend Greg Cochran always bragging about being right:

    He has to *actually be right* at a certain point. My hospital is still empty. Where are all the bodies you and Greg promised?

    • Replies: @AKAHorace
    @Anonymous


    He has to *actually be right* at a certain point. My hospital is still empty. Where are all the bodies you and Greg promised?
     
    Steve may be wrong, but an empty hospital is not proof. If distancing and masking work, then an empty hospital may mean that the right measures were taken. The results of places that have not taken the same measures most other countries such as Brazil and Sweden are more important.

    Replies: @Anonymous, @Peter Shaw, @VinnyVette, @TomSchmidt, @Redman

    , @Peter Shaw
    @Anonymous

    Cochran labelled me an idiot when I called the peak 6 weeks ago. He was still predicting 2 million USA deaths 1 month ago and banned me when I said it would max at 200k

    Real scholars admit when they are wrong and welcome dissent. He has lost most of his credibility.

    , @Pincher Martin
    @Anonymous

    Greg Cochran has been right from the beginning.

    Had we followed Greg's advice, the U.S. economy would be open right now and our number of dead would be incredibly low. Americans would be in the position where they could go out in public without masks, visit their favorite restaurants, patronize bars and movie theaters, and perhaps even attend sporting events and concerts.

    Had we followed the advice of people like you, the U.S. would have half a million dead at the very minimum and its economy would be in a complete shutdown.

    When Chester Bowles was proved prescient about the Bay of Pigs, he was not promoted by John F. Kennedy. He was demoted and shunned and mocked. Why? Because dumb and arrogant people hate to be reminded of their mistakes. They prefer hanging out with other wrong-minded people. Bowles had to be removed not because he was wrong about the Bay of Pigs but because he was right.

    Greg Cochran is in a similar position with you morons. Forget all the crap about the exact IFR, excess death rates, herd immunity, and the like. Just remember this: If we had followed Greg's advice from the beginning, we would be in a far better place in every regard than we are today.

    And you guys hate him for that fact.

    Replies: @utu, @HA, @Peter Shaw

  5. Not very similar, though: Australia’s death rate per million (from Covid-19) is currently running at 4, while Austria is at 71.

  6. From an old post : “However, as of the year 2000, 183,000 U.S. veterans of the Gulf War, more than a quarter of the U.S. troops who participated in War, have been declared permanently disabled by the Department of Veterans Affairs. About 30% of the 700,000 men and women who served in U.S. forces during the Gulf War still suffer an array of serious symptoms whose causes are not fully understood.”

    Thank you for your service .

    • Replies: @North Carolina Resident
    @donut

    Exactly what defines being permanently disabled?
    I know a man who injured his back in an off-base car accident, driving his own car. He remained in the Army a few more years to fulfill his commitment.
    He receives $4k monthly because of the back injury. He's not disabled at all.

  7. Which One Is Austria and Which One Is Australia?

    • Agree: James Speaks
    • Replies: @Nodwink
    @PiltdownMan

    Both Hitler and 'the real Crocodile Dundee', Rod Ansell, died as fugitives from the law.
    https://www.cbsnews.com/news/real-crocodile-dundee-dies/

    Replies: @Old Palo Altan

    , @Bragadocious
    @PiltdownMan

    Or we could go this route.

    https://www.telegraph.co.uk/content/dam/films/2017/09/28/terminatortimeline1_trans_NvBQzQNjv4BqZFsEsznJIMiwAJ-Ht0TXmZke5tVcP8DZCx24qIfqins.PNG?imwidth=1240

    https://nationalpostcom.files.wordpress.com/2019/03/brenton-tarrant-1.png?w=483&zoom=2

    Two terminators

    , @The Alarmist
    @PiltdownMan

    Pump your brakes kid ... that man's a national treasure!

    https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=Jnw6ZpHGjNQ

  8. Black Pigeon is just a bum rattling his cup on the right corner .

    • Agree: Mike Tre
  9. @PiltdownMan

    Which One Is Austria and Which One Is Australia?
     
    https://i.imgur.com/Aoy35bg.jpg

    https://i.imgur.com/NSNdyRo.jpg

    Replies: @Nodwink, @Bragadocious, @The Alarmist

    Both Hitler and ‘the real Crocodile Dundee’, Rod Ansell, died as fugitives from the law.
    https://www.cbsnews.com/news/real-crocodile-dundee-dies/

    • Replies: @Old Palo Altan
    @Nodwink

    Hitler died as a fugitive from the law?
    Not his own nation's law he didn't.

    So explain yourself.

  10. @J.Ross
    Australia's military at one point bought that really funky-looking reinvention of the rifle by Steyr of Austria. They decided to help people tell them apart by calling the antipodal ones "Aus-Steyrs."

    Replies: @Diversity Heretic, @Joe Stalin, @Stealth

    Australia also adapted the British Sten machine pistol into an Austen.

    • Replies: @animalogic
    @Diversity Heretic

    "Australia also adapted the British Sten machine pistol into an Austen."
    Sorry don't get it. Is "Austen" some kind of play on Australia + "sten" ?
    Are you referring to the Owen submachine gun? A gun capable of functioning with dirt & mud as opposed to a sten that would instantly jam (or potentially snap a finger if working). The Owen gun entirely designed & built in Australia. The only thing a Sten has to do with an Owen is what NOT to do. Here endeth the rant.

    Replies: @Joe Stalin, @Diversity Heretic

  11. @Anonymous
    Hey, Steve.

    Heres the thing about your weird little friend Greg Cochran always bragging about being right:

    He has to *actually be right* at a certain point. My hospital is still empty. Where are all the bodies you and Greg promised?

    Replies: @AKAHorace, @Peter Shaw, @Pincher Martin

    He has to *actually be right* at a certain point. My hospital is still empty. Where are all the bodies you and Greg promised?

    Steve may be wrong, but an empty hospital is not proof. If distancing and masking work, then an empty hospital may mean that the right measures were taken. The results of places that have not taken the same measures most other countries such as Brazil and Sweden are more important.

    • Replies: @Anonymous
    @AKAHorace

    But facts and predictions matter at some point.

    I say this is nonsense and nonthreatening.

    Greg Cochran says the bodies are going to pile up at MY local hospital.

    These are two difterent views and only one of us can be right.

    So when does Steve admit Greg is wrong and Im right? Give me the date. June? July? August?

    Give me the date and get Steve to agree the question has been settled and one of us is right and the other wrong.

    Replies: @AKAHorace

    , @Peter Shaw
    @AKAHorace

    That is true but it’s trending down in Sweden and Spain went back to work 4 weeks ago (and it still kept going down).

    Brazil has not peaked yet but it will shortly.

    Evidence is that:

    1. it’s seasonal
    2. It’s not a contagious as thought (most people are not contagious at all, although some are super spreaders)
    3. Herd immunity is much lower than 70% (that figure never made sense), and is malleable to behaviour changes.

    , @VinnyVette
    @AKAHorace

    NYC had only 160 or so Covid patients on the Med ship Trump sent them, and never used the Javitz Center field hospital... There was never a bed crisis at the U S. epicenter... NY! That aspect of this is total b.s.!

    , @TomSchmidt
    @AKAHorace

    And Belarus. Don't forget Belarus.

    , @Redman
    @AKAHorace

    And Belarus.

  12. Anonymous[413] • Disclaimer says:

    Both Austria and Australia have tested around 4.5% of their population by now.

    https://www.worldometers.info/coronavirus/

    Note that if you sort on “Active cases”, they are now coloring those with zero cases green. The Faeroe Islands once nearly led in cases per capita, now it is still #17, but now have no active cases. They tested like a SOB. They still lead the pack in tests/capita. (Iceland presents a similar story.)

    Testing is a large part of the elimination solution. Infectious period starts 1-3 days before symptoms, but lasts about 8 days or so, from memory. So if you can isolate on day 2 of being infectious, you limit transmission – and hence R(effective) – and you also limit transmission of all those you contact trace, some of which will even be pre-infective.

    I know a lot of people here like to think of R0 as being 2-3, so if you can slice off say, 70% of the transmissions over the course of a typical infection through testing everyone symptomatic, the R(effective) becomes 0.6-0.9. If you use the CDC 5.7, then that’s 1.7. Other measures reduce it further.

    • Replies: @res
    @Anonymous


    I know a lot of people here like to think of R0 as being 2-3, so if you can slice off say, 70% of the transmissions over the course of a typical infection through testing everyone symptomatic, the R(effective) becomes 0.6-0.9. If you use the CDC 5.7, then that’s 1.7.
     
    Here is the CDC report giving that 5.7 figure.
    https://wwwnc.cdc.gov/eid/article/26/7/20-0282_article
    As far as I can tell it became available 4/8 and uses even earlier data.
    https://web.archive.org/web/20200408063007/https://wwwnc.cdc.gov/eid/article/26/7/20-0282_article

    Here is the current CDC planning document.
    https://www.cdc.gov/coronavirus/2019-ncov/hcp/planning-scenarios.html
    https://www.cdc.gov/coronavirus/2019-ncov/hcp/planning-scenarios-h.pdf
    It gives low/best estimate/high figures for R0 of 2/2.5/3. It appears in the Internet Archive 5/21 and they say: "Parameter values are based on data received by CDC prior to 4/29/2020"

    Perhaps time to reconsider that 5.7 estimate? Or is everyone else lowballing R0 and you are correct?

    Replies: @Anonymous

  13. Old Riddle: A bear walks south for ten miles, then it walks west for one mile, then it walks north for ten miles and ends up at the same point it started. What color is the bear?

    The answer of course is: white.

    The point, I guess, is that everywhere (except the North pole) is South (or “Aus”), of somewhere else. Austria is south of the rest of Germany and Australia is south of the rest of the populated world. So we can all say, with some justification, eich bin in Auslander.

    • Replies: @Almost Missouri
    @Hypnotoad666

    Good point, except that the "Aus-" in Austria is a Latinization of "Öst-" in Österreich, meaning East rather than South.

    Also, the "Aus-" in Auslander means "out".

    So three different "Aus"s: South, East and Out. I would say that it is false cognate triple header, except that Australia's isn't really "Aus-", but "Austral-".

    Replies: @Warner

  14. Australia, in the southern hemisphere has been in their summer, i.e. warmer temperatures and not flu season – hence the lower infection rates.

    • Replies: @DanHessinMD
    @Patagonia Man

    Yes, you are right about the weather.

    Austria had a massive outbreak early on in late February and early March. Australia never did.

    This thing is very clearly seasonal and Austria's success was with a headwind while Australia's success was with a tailwind.

    , @animalogic
    @Patagonia Man

    Hence those blizzards in Florida....

  15. Australia’s low mortality rate would seem to undermine the theory that quiet talkers (like Austrians, Finns, Japanese, etc.) are less likely to spread the virus than excitable loud talkers (Italians, French, African-Americans, etc.) Few peoples on the planet are louder than Australians.

    • Agree: fatmanscoop
    • Replies: @Redneck farmer
    @Peter Akuleyev

    Alcohol kills viruses. Aussies have a drinking reputation, too.

    Replies: @Anonymous

    , @sb
    @Peter Akuleyev

    I would characterise Australians as pretty loud compared to Northern Europeans but excitable ?
    Wondering where you think Americans rank . Most non Americans consider Americans to be the measuring stick in these matters .
    Ever been to a beach or restaraunt filled with various nationalities ?

    Replies: @jbwilson24, @Ancient Briton

  16. @Peter Akuleyev
    Australia's low mortality rate would seem to undermine the theory that quiet talkers (like Austrians, Finns, Japanese, etc.) are less likely to spread the virus than excitable loud talkers (Italians, French, African-Americans, etc.) Few peoples on the planet are louder than Australians.

    Replies: @Redneck farmer, @sb

    Alcohol kills viruses. Aussies have a drinking reputation, too.

    • Replies: @Anonymous
    @Redneck farmer

    Alcohol kills viruses. Aussies have a drinking reputation, too.

    Australians were into "cleansing ales" long before Trump made them cool. What if we could, you know, inject a disinfectant, a tremendous disinfectant into the, uh, body?

    Australia: We're one step ahead of you, mate.

  17. @Peter Akuleyev
    Australia's low mortality rate would seem to undermine the theory that quiet talkers (like Austrians, Finns, Japanese, etc.) are less likely to spread the virus than excitable loud talkers (Italians, French, African-Americans, etc.) Few peoples on the planet are louder than Australians.

    Replies: @Redneck farmer, @sb

    I would characterise Australians as pretty loud compared to Northern Europeans but excitable ?
    Wondering where you think Americans rank . Most non Americans consider Americans to be the measuring stick in these matters .
    Ever been to a beach or restaraunt filled with various nationalities ?

    • Replies: @jbwilson24
    @sb

    "Wondering where you think Americans rank . Most non Americans consider Americans to be the measuring stick in these matters ."

    It's a weird question. What kind of 'American'? Blacks? Which kind, Somalis, African-Americans descended from slaves?

    Vietnamese immigrants? 80 year old Scots?

    Diversity makes these kind of questions kind of silly.

    , @Ancient Briton
    @sb

    Last time I eat at The Outback it was pretty loud - but not so much now...

  18. sb says:

    I find it interesting that no one so far has suggested that maybe one reason for Australia’s figures ( 4 covid deaths per million compared to the US’s 293 deaths per million ) could be the difference between the two nations
    I guess even the good American folk here who have many (many) issues with their country cannot bring themselves to say that compared to other places the US is really shithouse

    • Replies: @Almost Missouri
    @sb


    "I guess even the good American folk here who have many (many) issues with their country cannot bring themselves to say that compared to other places the US is really shithouse"
     
    Au contraire, mon ami.

    If you look at where in the US the COVID deaths are (NYC, Detroit, New Orleans), I would heartily agree that those places are sh*t[holes].

    "maybe one reason for Australia’s figures ( 4 covid deaths per million compared to the US’s 293 deaths per million ) could be the difference between the two nations"
     
    Yes, the differences between the two nations. What could those be?

    I nominate:

    • Only one enacted rapid and consequential border control.
    • Only one has a basically patriotic and competent government.
    • Only one has dense and unsanitary cities.
    • Only one has a large and refractory underclass.
    • Also: opposite seasonalties. Only one has universal sunshine, open space and fresh air.

    No one can do much about the last one, but the first four are addressable.

    Replies: @Dave from Oz, @Amerimutt Golems

    , @Anonymous
    @sb

    Parts of the CONUS-mostly nonwhite parts-are certainly shithousy. Hawaii for all its climate and terrain has quite a bit of shitty areas too.

    Areas run by negroes, mestizos, or in fact most other flavors of nonwhites, besides certain kinds of orientals or oil rich muzzies, are generally shitholy.

    , @Anonymous
    @sb

    Australia has its share of wannabe Americans and trolls who seem disappointed that the government didn’t let the disease rip through the population.

    , @Kratoklastes
    @sb

    The key difference is that there is never a day on which any State capital in Australia has snow enough to make a snowman. A light dusting in the nearby hills is newsworthy.

    New York (the absolute US epicentre) has poor sanitation, really cold temperatures, and an extremely gross mass transit system. And probably CHUDS.

    Results from Australian aged care homes seem a little less "death-camp"-ish, too. That industry was the subject of a pretty thorough investigation about 10 years ago, and was forced to lift its game.

    US-wide, 42% of all covid19 deaths were people in aged-care facilities; in Europe it's more than half of all covid19 deaths. In Australia it's about a third (in NSW, about a third of their deaths originated in just 2 aged care homes).

  19. @Patagonia Man
    Australia, in the southern hemisphere has been in their summer, i.e. warmer temperatures and not flu season - hence the lower infection rates.

    Replies: @DanHessinMD, @animalogic

    Yes, you are right about the weather.

    Austria had a massive outbreak early on in late February and early March. Australia never did.

    This thing is very clearly seasonal and Austria’s success was with a headwind while Australia’s success was with a tailwind.

    • Agree: Patagonia Man
  20. the US is really shithouse

    Been to Sydney or Melbourne lately? they’re third world shitholes with a thin veneer of civility.

  21. Anonymous[751] • Disclaimer says:
    @AKAHorace
    @Anonymous


    He has to *actually be right* at a certain point. My hospital is still empty. Where are all the bodies you and Greg promised?
     
    Steve may be wrong, but an empty hospital is not proof. If distancing and masking work, then an empty hospital may mean that the right measures were taken. The results of places that have not taken the same measures most other countries such as Brazil and Sweden are more important.

    Replies: @Anonymous, @Peter Shaw, @VinnyVette, @TomSchmidt, @Redman

    But facts and predictions matter at some point.

    I say this is nonsense and nonthreatening.

    Greg Cochran says the bodies are going to pile up at MY local hospital.

    These are two difterent views and only one of us can be right.

    So when does Steve admit Greg is wrong and Im right? Give me the date. June? July? August?

    Give me the date and get Steve to agree the question has been settled and one of us is right and the other wrong.

    • Replies: @AKAHorace
    @Anonymous

    >Greg Cochran says the bodies are going to pile up at MY local hospital.

    Perhaps he is planning in going on some kind of killing spree in your area. He always seemed a bit bad tempered to me.

    >Give me the date and get Steve to agree the question has been settled and one of us is right and the >other wrong.

    We have already seen the virus kill a lot of people around New York and in Northern Italy. This is a pathogen that can kill a lot of people under the "right" circumstances. Steves recommendations to avoid being crammed together in large groups indoors (like the New York subway system) to wear masks and not to worry about outdoor activities like going to the beach seems pretty middle of the road compared to a lot of the advice out there.

    Why are you asking Steve for a date to prove Greg's theories wrong ?

    Replies: @Steve Sailer

  22. @Anonymous
    Hey, Steve.

    Heres the thing about your weird little friend Greg Cochran always bragging about being right:

    He has to *actually be right* at a certain point. My hospital is still empty. Where are all the bodies you and Greg promised?

    Replies: @AKAHorace, @Peter Shaw, @Pincher Martin

    Cochran labelled me an idiot when I called the peak 6 weeks ago. He was still predicting 2 million USA deaths 1 month ago and banned me when I said it would max at 200k

    Real scholars admit when they are wrong and welcome dissent. He has lost most of his credibility.

  23. @AKAHorace
    @Anonymous


    He has to *actually be right* at a certain point. My hospital is still empty. Where are all the bodies you and Greg promised?
     
    Steve may be wrong, but an empty hospital is not proof. If distancing and masking work, then an empty hospital may mean that the right measures were taken. The results of places that have not taken the same measures most other countries such as Brazil and Sweden are more important.

    Replies: @Anonymous, @Peter Shaw, @VinnyVette, @TomSchmidt, @Redman

    That is true but it’s trending down in Sweden and Spain went back to work 4 weeks ago (and it still kept going down).

    Brazil has not peaked yet but it will shortly.

    Evidence is that:

    1. it’s seasonal
    2. It’s not a contagious as thought (most people are not contagious at all, although some are super spreaders)
    3. Herd immunity is much lower than 70% (that figure never made sense), and is malleable to behaviour changes.

  24. International Jew [AKA "Hebrew National"] says:

    Yep. Other easily confused countries: Canada and Canary Islands, Malta and Malawi, Hong Kong and Congo, Iraq and Iran, and all the ‘stans.

  25. I do not understand why the national death rate has not dropped, especially why it has not dropped dramatically. Doctors know so much more about how to treat the disease, the symptoms that are important to monitor.

    • Replies: @Je Suis Omar Mateen
    @Steve Richter

    "I do not understand why the national death rate has not dropped, especially why it has not dropped dramatically. "

    Because it's fake. Hospitals are empty, the body counts are manufactured. COVID19 doesn't exist.

    Local government Karens are openly mocking us with orders like 'Crowd yourself into Costco but don't you dare sit at a bar' and 'Wear a mouthdiaper whilst hiking outdoors in the sun.' The water fountains at my gym are swaddled in bubblewrap but the sink in the bathroom is working just fine, whilst the fountain soda dispenser at the quickimart one block away has been accessible all thru the hoax.

    These blatantly contradictory orders are in-your-face mockery. And alls y'alls fell for it.

    CoronaHoax was an intelligence test and about 75% of you failed it.

  26. As an Australian, I think my country was lucky: the bushfires that ravaged the country from November last year to this February deterred many tourists from coming here. Also, Australia has at least several hundred thousand Chinese students at its universities (they come here because they apply for permanent residence at the conclusion of their course), most of them had gone home for a vacation, intending to return for the opening of the academic year at the end of February. The government closed the borders early in February, so the Chinese students had to remain at home.

    Australia has had just over 100 deaths from the corona virus. A large proportion of the deaths, and the infected, were from cruise ships.

    • Replies: @Momus
    @Vox Australis

    Not luck

    Pre-emptively good management with an educated and sensible population, mate.

  27. They don’t speak Austrian in Australia. That’s how I know.

    • Agree: JMcG
  28. Anonymous[413] • Disclaimer says:
    @Redneck farmer
    @Peter Akuleyev

    Alcohol kills viruses. Aussies have a drinking reputation, too.

    Replies: @Anonymous

    Alcohol kills viruses. Aussies have a drinking reputation, too.

    Australians were into “cleansing ales” long before Trump made them cool. What if we could, you know, inject a disinfectant, a tremendous disinfectant into the, uh, body?

    Australia: We’re one step ahead of you, mate.

  29. @Hypnotoad666
    Old Riddle: A bear walks south for ten miles, then it walks west for one mile, then it walks north for ten miles and ends up at the same point it started. What color is the bear?

    The answer of course is: white.

    The point, I guess, is that everywhere (except the North pole) is South (or "Aus"), of somewhere else. Austria is south of the rest of Germany and Australia is south of the rest of the populated world. So we can all say, with some justification, eich bin in Auslander.

    Replies: @Almost Missouri

    Good point, except that the “Aus-” in Austria is a Latinization of “Öst-” in Österreich, meaning East rather than South.

    Also, the “Aus-” in Auslander means “out”.

    So three different “Aus”s: South, East and Out. I would say that it is false cognate triple header, except that Australia’s isn’t really “Aus-“, but “Austral-“.

    • Replies: @Warner
    @Almost Missouri

    I love sagacious etymology!

  30. @sb
    I find it interesting that no one so far has suggested that maybe one reason for Australia's figures ( 4 covid deaths per million compared to the US's 293 deaths per million ) could be the difference between the two nations
    I guess even the good American folk here who have many (many) issues with their country cannot bring themselves to say that compared to other places the US is really shithouse

    Replies: @Almost Missouri, @Anonymous, @Anonymous, @Kratoklastes

    “I guess even the good American folk here who have many (many) issues with their country cannot bring themselves to say that compared to other places the US is really shithouse”

    Au contraire, mon ami.

    If you look at where in the US the COVID deaths are (NYC, Detroit, New Orleans), I would heartily agree that those places are sh*t[holes].

    “maybe one reason for Australia’s figures ( 4 covid deaths per million compared to the US’s 293 deaths per million ) could be the difference between the two nations”

    Yes, the differences between the two nations. What could those be?

    I nominate:

    • Only one enacted rapid and consequential border control.
    • Only one has a basically patriotic and competent government.
    • Only one has dense and unsanitary cities.
    • Only one has a large and refractory underclass.
    • Also: opposite seasonalties. Only one has universal sunshine, open space and fresh air.

    No one can do much about the last one, but the first four are addressable.

    • Replies: @Dave from Oz
    @Almost Missouri


    • Also: opposite seasonalties. Only one has universal sunshine, open space and fresh air.
     
    We now are just coming in to winter. If it was about "opposite seasonalities", we would be at the disadvantage.

    • Only one has a basically patriotic and competent government.
     
    100%. In particular, the public service. The USA despises anything "public", at best it's a necessary evil. Australia is different.

    Replies: @Amerimutt Golems, @Almost Missouri, @Peterike

    , @Amerimutt Golems
    @Almost Missouri


    If you look at where in the US the COVID deaths are (NYC, Detroit, New Orleans), I would heartily agree that those places are sh*t[holes].


    I said the same thing a while back in reference to Londonistan or formerly London with its huge imported 'gibs' class.

    In contrast Australia has one of the highest standards of living in the world and had a sensible immigration policy till 1975.

  31. So the chinese letting wuhanese fly out of hubei infecting the world is just another bullshit from you five eyes

  32. Practically everywhere’s graphs look like that now. Like every other respiratory flu, ever.

    It’s over. End the lockdowns.

    • Agree: Je Suis Omar Mateen
  33. How to tell Austria and Australia apart…

    One country used to be part of an evil empire full of evil beer-drinking people who loved the outdoors, wanted to take over the world, and who genocided lots and lots of innocent people.

    The other country used to be part of a nice, good empire full of nice, friendly beer-drinking people who loved the outdoors, actually DID take over the world, and who also genocided lots and lots and lots of innocent people.

    Whether an empire is good or evil depends entirely on the particular type of innocent people they kill.

    • LOL: animalogic
    • Replies: @JMcG
    @The Germ Theory of Disease

    I’m stealing that.

    , @Pincher Martin
    @The Germ Theory of Disease

    Q: “Why is the British Empire described as the Empire on which the sun never sets?"

    A: "Because God didn't trust the poms with the lights out."

    Replies: @Reg Cæsar

    , @Almost Missouri
    @The Germ Theory of Disease


    "Whether an empire is good or evil depends entirely on the particular type of innocent people they kill."
     
    I would have stated it as,

    Whether an empire is good or evil depends entirely on which one wins the subsequent war between empires.
     
  34. One thing Australia did early on is strictly limit interstate travel. It wasn’t much of an inconvenience because with the exception of Brisbane, most populateed areas aren’t anywhere close to state borders. Residents of the small Capital Territory were allowed to travel into the surrounding New South Wales. Whether these travel restrictions had a significant effect on the epidemic are uncertain.

    • Replies: @dfordoom
    @prosa123


    One thing Australia did early on is strictly limit interstate travel.
     
    And managed to do so despite incredibly long land borders. We didn't even need to build a Big Beautiful Wall. All that was needed was the political will to do it.

    Whether these travel restrictions had a significant effect on the epidemic are uncertain.
     
    They undoubtedly made it slightly easier to manage.

    Replies: @anon

  35. @AKAHorace
    @Anonymous


    He has to *actually be right* at a certain point. My hospital is still empty. Where are all the bodies you and Greg promised?
     
    Steve may be wrong, but an empty hospital is not proof. If distancing and masking work, then an empty hospital may mean that the right measures were taken. The results of places that have not taken the same measures most other countries such as Brazil and Sweden are more important.

    Replies: @Anonymous, @Peter Shaw, @VinnyVette, @TomSchmidt, @Redman

    NYC had only 160 or so Covid patients on the Med ship Trump sent them, and never used the Javitz Center field hospital… There was never a bed crisis at the U S. epicenter… NY! That aspect of this is total b.s.!

  36. @J.Ross
    Australia's military at one point bought that really funky-looking reinvention of the rifle by Steyr of Austria. They decided to help people tell them apart by calling the antipodal ones "Aus-Steyrs."

    Replies: @Diversity Heretic, @Joe Stalin, @Stealth

    • Replies: @J.Ross
    @Joe Stalin

    There ya go, it wasn't wierd enough.

  37. @Almost Missouri
    @sb


    "I guess even the good American folk here who have many (many) issues with their country cannot bring themselves to say that compared to other places the US is really shithouse"
     
    Au contraire, mon ami.

    If you look at where in the US the COVID deaths are (NYC, Detroit, New Orleans), I would heartily agree that those places are sh*t[holes].

    "maybe one reason for Australia’s figures ( 4 covid deaths per million compared to the US’s 293 deaths per million ) could be the difference between the two nations"
     
    Yes, the differences between the two nations. What could those be?

    I nominate:

    • Only one enacted rapid and consequential border control.
    • Only one has a basically patriotic and competent government.
    • Only one has dense and unsanitary cities.
    • Only one has a large and refractory underclass.
    • Also: opposite seasonalties. Only one has universal sunshine, open space and fresh air.

    No one can do much about the last one, but the first four are addressable.

    Replies: @Dave from Oz, @Amerimutt Golems

    • Also: opposite seasonalties. Only one has universal sunshine, open space and fresh air.

    We now are just coming in to winter. If it was about “opposite seasonalities”, we would be at the disadvantage.

    • Only one has a basically patriotic and competent government.

    100%. In particular, the public service. The USA despises anything “public”, at best it’s a necessary evil. Australia is different.

    • Replies: @Amerimutt Golems
    @Dave from Oz


    100%. In particular, the public service. The USA despises anything “public”, at best it’s a necessary evil. Australia is different.


    The same applies to Austria.

    , @Almost Missouri
    @Dave from Oz


    We now are just coming in to winter. If it was about “opposite seasonalities”, we would be at the disadvantage.
     
    Yes, "would be", in the future. Over the past few months, however, it was advantage: Terra Australis.

    Also, I don't think anywhere in the temperate Northern Hemisphere other than the southwestern US can compete with Australia for disinfecting sunshine.


    • Only one has a basically patriotic and competent government.
     
    100%. In particular, the public service. The USA despises anything “public”, at best it’s a necessary evil. Australia is different.
     
    There are a few US state governments that are mostly competent. The unifying trait linking these state governments is a mystery whose answer is only known to esoteric HBD blogs.
    , @Peterike
    @Dave from Oz

    “ The USA despises anything “public”, at best it’s a necessary evil. ”

    That’s one of those total bullshit things that foreigners always seem to believe about the U.S. You’re talking about six Conservative Inc geriatrics that still bleat on about that. However the Left, firmly in control of American culture, uses that myth to beat Republicans, so foreigners think it’s true. It’s not true in the least.

  38. @AKAHorace
    @Anonymous


    He has to *actually be right* at a certain point. My hospital is still empty. Where are all the bodies you and Greg promised?
     
    Steve may be wrong, but an empty hospital is not proof. If distancing and masking work, then an empty hospital may mean that the right measures were taken. The results of places that have not taken the same measures most other countries such as Brazil and Sweden are more important.

    Replies: @Anonymous, @Peter Shaw, @VinnyVette, @TomSchmidt, @Redman

    And Belarus. Don’t forget Belarus.

    • Agree: AKAHorace
  39. @Almost Missouri
    @Hypnotoad666

    Good point, except that the "Aus-" in Austria is a Latinization of "Öst-" in Österreich, meaning East rather than South.

    Also, the "Aus-" in Auslander means "out".

    So three different "Aus"s: South, East and Out. I would say that it is false cognate triple header, except that Australia's isn't really "Aus-", but "Austral-".

    Replies: @Warner

    I love sagacious etymology!

  40. A smart man would take this as evidence that Corona-chan kind of does what she wants and we shouldn’t destroy ourselves over her. It’s always a mistake to get obsessed over a female. As my father said, “they’re like streetcars: another one will come along.” I can guarantee you another coronavirus will come along, and another… Should we shut down every damn time? A man wouldn’t do that. Men who do regret it.

    • Agree: Dtbb
    • Replies: @dfordoom
    @Buzz Mohawk


    I can guarantee you another coronavirus will come along, and another… Should we shut down every damn time? A man wouldn’t do that. Men who do regret it.
     
    Of course the next one might be more like the Spanish Flu - it might disproportionately target young healthy people. The next one might be more lethal. Some might argue that next time governments should act a whole lot more swiftly.

    But real men laugh at viruses. An itty bitty virus can't hurt a real man.

    Replies: @Buzz Mohawk, @Anon

  41. @AKAHorace
    @Anonymous


    He has to *actually be right* at a certain point. My hospital is still empty. Where are all the bodies you and Greg promised?
     
    Steve may be wrong, but an empty hospital is not proof. If distancing and masking work, then an empty hospital may mean that the right measures were taken. The results of places that have not taken the same measures most other countries such as Brazil and Sweden are more important.

    Replies: @Anonymous, @Peter Shaw, @VinnyVette, @TomSchmidt, @Redman

    And Belarus.

    • Agree: AKAHorace
  42. @prosa123
    One thing Australia did early on is strictly limit interstate travel. It wasn't much of an inconvenience because with the exception of Brisbane, most populateed areas aren't anywhere close to state borders. Residents of the small Capital Territory were allowed to travel into the surrounding New South Wales. Whether these travel restrictions had a significant effect on the epidemic are uncertain.

    Replies: @dfordoom

    One thing Australia did early on is strictly limit interstate travel.

    And managed to do so despite incredibly long land borders. We didn’t even need to build a Big Beautiful Wall. All that was needed was the political will to do it.

    Whether these travel restrictions had a significant effect on the epidemic are uncertain.

    They undoubtedly made it slightly easier to manage.

    • Replies: @anon
    @dfordoom

    And managed to do so despite incredibly long land borders. We didn’t even need to build a Big Beautiful Wall. All that was needed was the political will to do it.

    Please describe the border closings for us all. Did New South Wales shut down all highways across the border to all traffic, including fuel tankers and food haulers? Is NSW self sufficient in food and gasoline?

    My state required anyone returning from out of state to self-quarantine for 14 days, ditto anyone arriving from New York at first, then that was ramped up to anyone. However allowances were made for people who had to work just across the state line in an adjacent city. But the Interstates were still open with plenty of inter-state semi-trucks running.

    Now, be honest. Isn't that pretty much what the Oz "state border shutdown" amounted to? Certainly looks that way from this article:

    https://www.news.com.au/national/south-australia/coronavirus-australia-south-australia-closes-borders-to-stop-virus-spread/news-story/cd0b432d57c14000822706d39834815f

    Perhaps you could explain exactly what you meant by "closed state border" in the context of Oz, and point out the differences between that and the "closed border" of many US states?

    If you've been paying attention, you should have noticed that many of the hardest hit areas in the US have populations that are not the same as Australia. Perhaps Oz's good fortune has something to do with population demographics?

    Replies: @Anonymous

  43. @Buzz Mohawk
    A smart man would take this as evidence that Corona-chan kind of does what she wants and we shouldn't destroy ourselves over her. It's always a mistake to get obsessed over a female. As my father said, "they're like streetcars: another one will come along." I can guarantee you another coronavirus will come along, and another... Should we shut down every damn time? A man wouldn't do that. Men who do regret it.

    https://animeright.news/wp-content/uploads/sites/2/2020/03/Thumb.png

    Replies: @dfordoom

    I can guarantee you another coronavirus will come along, and another… Should we shut down every damn time? A man wouldn’t do that. Men who do regret it.

    Of course the next one might be more like the Spanish Flu – it might disproportionately target young healthy people. The next one might be more lethal. Some might argue that next time governments should act a whole lot more swiftly.

    But real men laugh at viruses. An itty bitty virus can’t hurt a real man.

    • Replies: @Buzz Mohawk
    @dfordoom

    What you do is isolate vulnerable people, to protect them. And you quarantine the sick, because you know there is no perfect protection. Yes, maybe some asymptomatic people can spread some respiratory viruses for a limited time. No protection is perfect.

    You don't isolate the whole damn population, because you simply can't do this every time.

    Enjoy your life of lockdowns and safety theater, boy, as you become a peasant in the new feudal world.

    , @Anon
    @dfordoom

    Given how poisonous the discourse is, especially in the Anglosphere, if a killer flu were to hit, the countries that were most successful dealing with Covid-19 will be hardest hit, because they won’t be able to persuade their populations of the danger.

  44. Anonymous[930] • Disclaimer says:
    @sb
    I find it interesting that no one so far has suggested that maybe one reason for Australia's figures ( 4 covid deaths per million compared to the US's 293 deaths per million ) could be the difference between the two nations
    I guess even the good American folk here who have many (many) issues with their country cannot bring themselves to say that compared to other places the US is really shithouse

    Replies: @Almost Missouri, @Anonymous, @Anonymous, @Kratoklastes

    Parts of the CONUS-mostly nonwhite parts-are certainly shithousy. Hawaii for all its climate and terrain has quite a bit of shitty areas too.

    Areas run by negroes, mestizos, or in fact most other flavors of nonwhites, besides certain kinds of orientals or oil rich muzzies, are generally shitholy.

  45. Top Australia,
    Bottom Austria

    Hmmm, could have worded that better.

  46. @PiltdownMan

    Which One Is Austria and Which One Is Australia?
     
    https://i.imgur.com/Aoy35bg.jpg

    https://i.imgur.com/NSNdyRo.jpg

    Replies: @Nodwink, @Bragadocious, @The Alarmist

    Or we could go this route.

    Two terminators

  47. BTW a moral of this story is to always read the axes (and never trust a graph without the axes labelled and the origin included, even if only with one of those ‘broken y axis’ thingees)

  48. @Steve Sailer
    The double-peaked top graph going up to 600 is Australia and the single-peaked lower graph going up to 1500 is Austria.

    At least, I think.

    Replies: @res, @Reg Cæsar, @The Alarmist, @Forbes

    That would have been my guess. Based on the >2x difference in peaks. Because, island?

    • Replies: @res
    @res

    And I missed that those were absolute counts not per capita. As Richard of Melbourne points out, Austria's death rate is over 15x that of Australia's.

    Replies: @JerseyJeffersonian

  49. It will be interesting to watch the impact of winter seasonal change in the Southern Hemisphere. Infections are surging in Brazil, I suspect the same will be true in Australia where they are experiencing record cold.

  50. res says:
    @Anonymous
    Both Austria and Australia have tested around 4.5% of their population by now.

    https://www.worldometers.info/coronavirus/

    Note that if you sort on "Active cases", they are now coloring those with zero cases green. The Faeroe Islands once nearly led in cases per capita, now it is still #17, but now have no active cases. They tested like a SOB. They still lead the pack in tests/capita. (Iceland presents a similar story.)

    Testing is a large part of the elimination solution. Infectious period starts 1-3 days before symptoms, but lasts about 8 days or so, from memory. So if you can isolate on day 2 of being infectious, you limit transmission - and hence R(effective) - and you also limit transmission of all those you contact trace, some of which will even be pre-infective.

    I know a lot of people here like to think of R0 as being 2-3, so if you can slice off say, 70% of the transmissions over the course of a typical infection through testing everyone symptomatic, the R(effective) becomes 0.6-0.9. If you use the CDC 5.7, then that's 1.7. Other measures reduce it further.

    Replies: @res

    I know a lot of people here like to think of R0 as being 2-3, so if you can slice off say, 70% of the transmissions over the course of a typical infection through testing everyone symptomatic, the R(effective) becomes 0.6-0.9. If you use the CDC 5.7, then that’s 1.7.

    Here is the CDC report giving that 5.7 figure.
    https://wwwnc.cdc.gov/eid/article/26/7/20-0282_article
    As far as I can tell it became available 4/8 and uses even earlier data.
    https://web.archive.org/web/20200408063007/https://wwwnc.cdc.gov/eid/article/26/7/20-0282_article

    Here is the current CDC planning document.
    https://www.cdc.gov/coronavirus/2019-ncov/hcp/planning-scenarios.html
    https://www.cdc.gov/coronavirus/2019-ncov/hcp/planning-scenarios-h.pdf
    It gives low/best estimate/high figures for R0 of 2/2.5/3. It appears in the Internet Archive 5/21 and they say: “Parameter values are based on data received by CDC prior to 4/29/2020”

    Perhaps time to reconsider that 5.7 estimate? Or is everyone else lowballing R0 and you are correct?

    • Replies: @Anonymous
    @res

    Good question. The way this thing spreads with aerosols as with the choir experience and has been hard to stamp out, it seems pretty darn infectious.

    But... at the end of the day the key variable in a mostly naive population, what is the doubling or halving time of new cases? Is it doubling or halving or staying the same? (Re >1, <1 or 1) And are there enough tests to test everyone (i.e. can you be sure you are catching most cases?)

    One could look at the few numbers of AU cases and make some sort of epicyclic argument that AU population was mainly immune from something else but I call BS on that. There is a reason you can't find hand sanitiser and hand wash on the shelves for months. We are using it! We are staying home. We are not sending kids to school. We are not going out on the town or even to restaurants. If we have symptoms we go to a testing station, and if positive all our contacts get tested. If you are a virus and "think" you are going to spread, good luck with that.

    And this shows up in the flu data, record low fever/cough symptoms for the time of year.

  51. @res
    @Steve Sailer

    That would have been my guess. Based on the >2x difference in peaks. Because, island?

    Replies: @res

    And I missed that those were absolute counts not per capita. As Richard of Melbourne points out, Austria’s death rate is over 15x that of Australia’s.

    • Replies: @JerseyJeffersonian
    @res

    This being in the effectively borderless Eurozone, be it noted. When next door to you is Northern Italy, that might be a factor upon which one might profitably reflect.

  52. @res
    @res

    And I missed that those were absolute counts not per capita. As Richard of Melbourne points out, Austria's death rate is over 15x that of Australia's.

    Replies: @JerseyJeffersonian

    This being in the effectively borderless Eurozone, be it noted. When next door to you is Northern Italy, that might be a factor upon which one might profitably reflect.

  53. @dfordoom
    @Buzz Mohawk


    I can guarantee you another coronavirus will come along, and another… Should we shut down every damn time? A man wouldn’t do that. Men who do regret it.
     
    Of course the next one might be more like the Spanish Flu - it might disproportionately target young healthy people. The next one might be more lethal. Some might argue that next time governments should act a whole lot more swiftly.

    But real men laugh at viruses. An itty bitty virus can't hurt a real man.

    Replies: @Buzz Mohawk, @Anon

    What you do is isolate vulnerable people, to protect them. And you quarantine the sick, because you know there is no perfect protection. Yes, maybe some asymptomatic people can spread some respiratory viruses for a limited time. No protection is perfect.

    You don’t isolate the whole damn population, because you simply can’t do this every time.

    Enjoy your life of lockdowns and safety theater, boy, as you become a peasant in the new feudal world.

    • Agree: RadicalCenter
  54. Anonymous[138] • Disclaimer says:
    @sb
    I find it interesting that no one so far has suggested that maybe one reason for Australia's figures ( 4 covid deaths per million compared to the US's 293 deaths per million ) could be the difference between the two nations
    I guess even the good American folk here who have many (many) issues with their country cannot bring themselves to say that compared to other places the US is really shithouse

    Replies: @Almost Missouri, @Anonymous, @Anonymous, @Kratoklastes

    Australia has its share of wannabe Americans and trolls who seem disappointed that the government didn’t let the disease rip through the population.

  55. @dfordoom
    @Buzz Mohawk


    I can guarantee you another coronavirus will come along, and another… Should we shut down every damn time? A man wouldn’t do that. Men who do regret it.
     
    Of course the next one might be more like the Spanish Flu - it might disproportionately target young healthy people. The next one might be more lethal. Some might argue that next time governments should act a whole lot more swiftly.

    But real men laugh at viruses. An itty bitty virus can't hurt a real man.

    Replies: @Buzz Mohawk, @Anon

    Given how poisonous the discourse is, especially in the Anglosphere, if a killer flu were to hit, the countries that were most successful dealing with Covid-19 will be hardest hit, because they won’t be able to persuade their populations of the danger.

  56. @Almost Missouri
    @sb


    "I guess even the good American folk here who have many (many) issues with their country cannot bring themselves to say that compared to other places the US is really shithouse"
     
    Au contraire, mon ami.

    If you look at where in the US the COVID deaths are (NYC, Detroit, New Orleans), I would heartily agree that those places are sh*t[holes].

    "maybe one reason for Australia’s figures ( 4 covid deaths per million compared to the US’s 293 deaths per million ) could be the difference between the two nations"
     
    Yes, the differences between the two nations. What could those be?

    I nominate:

    • Only one enacted rapid and consequential border control.
    • Only one has a basically patriotic and competent government.
    • Only one has dense and unsanitary cities.
    • Only one has a large and refractory underclass.
    • Also: opposite seasonalties. Only one has universal sunshine, open space and fresh air.

    No one can do much about the last one, but the first four are addressable.

    Replies: @Dave from Oz, @Amerimutt Golems


    If you look at where in the US the COVID deaths are (NYC, Detroit, New Orleans), I would heartily agree that those places are sh*t[holes].

    I said the same thing a while back in reference to Londonistan or formerly London with its huge imported ‘gibs’ class.

    In contrast Australia has one of the highest standards of living in the world and had a sensible immigration policy till 1975.

  57. @Dave from Oz
    @Almost Missouri


    • Also: opposite seasonalties. Only one has universal sunshine, open space and fresh air.
     
    We now are just coming in to winter. If it was about "opposite seasonalities", we would be at the disadvantage.

    • Only one has a basically patriotic and competent government.
     
    100%. In particular, the public service. The USA despises anything "public", at best it's a necessary evil. Australia is different.

    Replies: @Amerimutt Golems, @Almost Missouri, @Peterike


    100%. In particular, the public service. The USA despises anything “public”, at best it’s a necessary evil. Australia is different.

    The same applies to Austria.

  58. @Steve Sailer
    The double-peaked top graph going up to 600 is Australia and the single-peaked lower graph going up to 1500 is Austria.

    At least, I think.

    Replies: @res, @Reg Cæsar, @The Alarmist, @Forbes

    The double-peaked top graph going up to 600 is Australia and the single-peaked lower graph going up to 1500 is Austria.

    At least, I think.

    It’s a lot easier to prevent rickets in Australia, skin cancer in Austria.

    despite their similar names

    Ironically, Australia means “southern country” and Austria, a clumsily Latinized Österreich, means “eastern realm”.

    Who says there are no good new folk tunes?

  59. @Anonymous
    Hey, Steve.

    Heres the thing about your weird little friend Greg Cochran always bragging about being right:

    He has to *actually be right* at a certain point. My hospital is still empty. Where are all the bodies you and Greg promised?

    Replies: @AKAHorace, @Peter Shaw, @Pincher Martin

    Greg Cochran has been right from the beginning.

    Had we followed Greg’s advice, the U.S. economy would be open right now and our number of dead would be incredibly low. Americans would be in the position where they could go out in public without masks, visit their favorite restaurants, patronize bars and movie theaters, and perhaps even attend sporting events and concerts.

    Had we followed the advice of people like you, the U.S. would have half a million dead at the very minimum and its economy would be in a complete shutdown.

    When Chester Bowles was proved prescient about the Bay of Pigs, he was not promoted by John F. Kennedy. He was demoted and shunned and mocked. Why? Because dumb and arrogant people hate to be reminded of their mistakes. They prefer hanging out with other wrong-minded people. Bowles had to be removed not because he was wrong about the Bay of Pigs but because he was right.

    Greg Cochran is in a similar position with you morons. Forget all the crap about the exact IFR, excess death rates, herd immunity, and the like. Just remember this: If we had followed Greg’s advice from the beginning, we would be in a far better place in every regard than we are today.

    And you guys hate him for that fact.

    • Replies: @utu
    @Pincher Martin


    "Had we followed Greg’s advice, the U.S. economy would be open right now and our number of dead would be incredibly low. "
     
    In the MSM media there was no discourse about the strategy to eradicate the virus. From the very beginning only two options were offered: (1) no mitigation aka herd immunity now and (2) mitigation by curve flattening, aka herd immunity down the road. The only difference between no mitigation and curve flattening was the reduction of fatalities by preventing the medical system being overwhelmed.

    When the concept of the curve flattening was introduced the unmitigated curve and the flattened curve were presented in the slide illustration where it just happened so that the areas under both curves appeared to be equal. People got the message that the number of people dead would be the same except for those caused by the overwhelmed health system. A third curve with much smaller area was never presented. The question is why. Why the US and most EU countries did not go for the ERADICATION option?

    The eradication option was doable as Taiwan, Hong Kong, S. Korea, Japan and New Zealand, Slovakia and to lesser extent Czech Republic and Austria have demonstrated. It took 49 days for New Zealand.

    If lockdowns were imposed earlier and if they were stricter and if borders were shut down right away and if mask wearing was mandatory form the very beginning and if aggressive contact tracing and contact quarantining was carried out the epidemic could have been quashed in six weeks and we would be back to normal already in early May except that contact tracing and mask wearing would have to stay for longer and most importantly borders would have to be put in a permanent epidemic mode for as long as they would be flare up of epidemic in other more stupid countries. One would think that the right and the alt-right would see it as their dream option of reasserting the sovereignty and renegotiating the immigration policy.

    Why we were not allowed to consider the option of the virus eradication? Is it because it would be a threat to globalism, it would foster resurgence of nationalistic right, it would bring national unity and solidarity, it would reestablish borders and national sovereignty? Or is it because a high impact of the epidemic was needed to turn the world and world public opinion against China, to turn China into the pariah nation according to the grand geopolitical scheme concocted by the cabal that Steve Bannon was and is occasionally channeling?

    The alt-right and their libertarian substrate as usual missed the opportunity and eded up being cast in the role of useful idiots. The discourse was captured by flu hoaxers, herd immunity fetishists and all kind of cannibalistic gerontophobs who worked towards defeating the curve flattening program with the herd immunity meme and doing it with as much noise as possible so the the real alternative of the VIRUSE ERADICATION would be never heard of.

    Replies: @anon, @Pincher Martin, @Anonymous, @J.Ross

    , @HA
    @Pincher Martin

    "When Chester Bowles was proved prescient about the Bay of Pigs, he was not promoted by John F. Kennedy. He was demoted and shunned and mocked."

    Cochran has spoken about this as well. To paraphrase what he said, the ones who were wrong about Iraq went on to have illustrious careers in Washington. The ones who were right, if they were lucky, eventually found a spot at Unz.com.

    And you're right about the fact that if everyone -- especially the apparatchiks in Wuhan -- had actually taken this seriously from the beginning as opposed to just letting it rip and pretending it was just the flu, we'd be far better off right now. But it's a work in progress. It took decades for the majority to recognize that "smoking rights advocates" were just a bunch of tobacco-lobby useful idiots (actually, just plain idiots), and pathetic little dweebs convinced that nicotine addition was a necessary prop in their He-man bad-boy schtick that they used to impress women (and after all, lung cancer mostly kills those who are old and decrepit anyway, just like a certain virus, and who cares about people like that?).

    Now, the same little pansies who used to cry about the nanny-state taking away their cigarettes are instead throwing tantrums because the nanny-state shut down their gym for two months. Something similar can be said of seat belt avoidance and drunk driving -- that used to be part of the bad boy schtick, too, but now, not so much. I call that progress.

    Replies: @Pincher Martin

    , @Peter Shaw
    @Pincher Martin

    Cochran is an arrogant idiot whose strategy would end up costing lives.

    The USA is a free country with basically open borders so a lockdown is unlikely to work.

    And if a proper lockdown was achieved what would it amount to? Basically the creation of a police state, with a cratered economy for an indefinite period.

    One only needs to look at the world war that followed the 1930s depression to understand that shutting down society would (and to some extent will) kill far more than the small (relative)
    number of people who will die with coronavirus.

    Thankfully reality is gradually proving that idiot wrong.

    Replies: @Pincher Martin, @Pincher Martin

  60. anon[262] • Disclaimer says:
    @dfordoom
    @prosa123


    One thing Australia did early on is strictly limit interstate travel.
     
    And managed to do so despite incredibly long land borders. We didn't even need to build a Big Beautiful Wall. All that was needed was the political will to do it.

    Whether these travel restrictions had a significant effect on the epidemic are uncertain.
     
    They undoubtedly made it slightly easier to manage.

    Replies: @anon

    And managed to do so despite incredibly long land borders. We didn’t even need to build a Big Beautiful Wall. All that was needed was the political will to do it.

    Please describe the border closings for us all. Did New South Wales shut down all highways across the border to all traffic, including fuel tankers and food haulers? Is NSW self sufficient in food and gasoline?

    My state required anyone returning from out of state to self-quarantine for 14 days, ditto anyone arriving from New York at first, then that was ramped up to anyone. However allowances were made for people who had to work just across the state line in an adjacent city. But the Interstates were still open with plenty of inter-state semi-trucks running.

    Now, be honest. Isn’t that pretty much what the Oz “state border shutdown” amounted to? Certainly looks that way from this article:

    https://www.news.com.au/national/south-australia/coronavirus-australia-south-australia-closes-borders-to-stop-virus-spread/news-story/cd0b432d57c14000822706d39834815f

    Perhaps you could explain exactly what you meant by “closed state border” in the context of Oz, and point out the differences between that and the “closed border” of many US states?

    If you’ve been paying attention, you should have noticed that many of the hardest hit areas in the US have populations that are not the same as Australia. Perhaps Oz’s good fortune has something to do with population demographics?

    • Replies: @Anonymous
    @anon

    All the states and territories, except the two most populous, New South Wales and Victoria, closed their borders. In the states that closed, goods could pass, but travellers either had to to quarantine , or were outright banned.

    Currently the Aussie MAGAs and trolls are parroting the BS coming out of the US, and are pushing for the internal borders to be rapidly reopened, but polling indicates broad support for the border closures, and for gradual reopening. Sharing a language with Americans is becoming a curse.

    Replies: @Reg Cæsar

  61. @Steve Richter
    I do not understand why the national death rate has not dropped, especially why it has not dropped dramatically. Doctors know so much more about how to treat the disease, the symptoms that are important to monitor.

    Replies: @Je Suis Omar Mateen

    “I do not understand why the national death rate has not dropped, especially why it has not dropped dramatically. ”

    Because it’s fake. Hospitals are empty, the body counts are manufactured. COVID19 doesn’t exist.

    Local government Karens are openly mocking us with orders like ‘Crowd yourself into Costco but don’t you dare sit at a bar’ and ‘Wear a mouthdiaper whilst hiking outdoors in the sun.’ The water fountains at my gym are swaddled in bubblewrap but the sink in the bathroom is working just fine, whilst the fountain soda dispenser at the quickimart one block away has been accessible all thru the hoax.

    These blatantly contradictory orders are in-your-face mockery. And alls y’alls fell for it.

    CoronaHoax was an intelligence test and about 75% of you failed it.

    • Disagree: Corvinus
    • Thanks: RadicalCenter
  62. @The Germ Theory of Disease
    How to tell Austria and Australia apart...

    One country used to be part of an evil empire full of evil beer-drinking people who loved the outdoors, wanted to take over the world, and who genocided lots and lots of innocent people.

    The other country used to be part of a nice, good empire full of nice, friendly beer-drinking people who loved the outdoors, actually DID take over the world, and who also genocided lots and lots and lots of innocent people.

    Whether an empire is good or evil depends entirely on the particular type of innocent people they kill.

    Replies: @JMcG, @Pincher Martin, @Almost Missouri

    I’m stealing that.

  63. @The Germ Theory of Disease
    How to tell Austria and Australia apart...

    One country used to be part of an evil empire full of evil beer-drinking people who loved the outdoors, wanted to take over the world, and who genocided lots and lots of innocent people.

    The other country used to be part of a nice, good empire full of nice, friendly beer-drinking people who loved the outdoors, actually DID take over the world, and who also genocided lots and lots and lots of innocent people.

    Whether an empire is good or evil depends entirely on the particular type of innocent people they kill.

    Replies: @JMcG, @Pincher Martin, @Almost Missouri

    Q: “Why is the British Empire described as the Empire on which the sun never sets?”

    A: “Because God didn’t trust the poms with the lights out.”

    • Agree: Dan Hayes
    • Replies: @Reg Cæsar
    @Pincher Martin

    Should Pitcairn fall, the sun will set on the old empire. However, empire or no empire, the sun doesn't set on France herself:


    https://www.thelocal.fr/userdata/images/1540979791_Outre-mer.jpg


    https://i.redd.it/3qgq65y5evx21.jpg

    Replies: @AKAHorace, @Reg Cæsar

  64. @Nodwink
    @PiltdownMan

    Both Hitler and 'the real Crocodile Dundee', Rod Ansell, died as fugitives from the law.
    https://www.cbsnews.com/news/real-crocodile-dundee-dies/

    Replies: @Old Palo Altan

    Hitler died as a fugitive from the law?
    Not his own nation’s law he didn’t.

    So explain yourself.

  65. Anonymous[186] • Disclaimer says:
    @anon
    @dfordoom

    And managed to do so despite incredibly long land borders. We didn’t even need to build a Big Beautiful Wall. All that was needed was the political will to do it.

    Please describe the border closings for us all. Did New South Wales shut down all highways across the border to all traffic, including fuel tankers and food haulers? Is NSW self sufficient in food and gasoline?

    My state required anyone returning from out of state to self-quarantine for 14 days, ditto anyone arriving from New York at first, then that was ramped up to anyone. However allowances were made for people who had to work just across the state line in an adjacent city. But the Interstates were still open with plenty of inter-state semi-trucks running.

    Now, be honest. Isn't that pretty much what the Oz "state border shutdown" amounted to? Certainly looks that way from this article:

    https://www.news.com.au/national/south-australia/coronavirus-australia-south-australia-closes-borders-to-stop-virus-spread/news-story/cd0b432d57c14000822706d39834815f

    Perhaps you could explain exactly what you meant by "closed state border" in the context of Oz, and point out the differences between that and the "closed border" of many US states?

    If you've been paying attention, you should have noticed that many of the hardest hit areas in the US have populations that are not the same as Australia. Perhaps Oz's good fortune has something to do with population demographics?

    Replies: @Anonymous

    All the states and territories, except the two most populous, New South Wales and Victoria, closed their borders. In the states that closed, goods could pass, but travellers either had to to quarantine , or were outright banned.

    Currently the Aussie MAGAs and trolls are parroting the BS coming out of the US, and are pushing for the internal borders to be rapidly reopened, but polling indicates broad support for the border closures, and for gradual reopening. Sharing a language with Americans is becoming a curse.

    • Agree: dfordoom
    • Replies: @Reg Cæsar
    @Anonymous


    All the states and territories, except the two most populous, New South Wales and Victoria, closed their borders.
     
    In other words, Austronymous, half the country. The busiest borders. Those in the ACT, an enclave, were trapped.

    Currently the Aussie MAGAs and trolls are parroting the BS coming out of the US...
     
    This is confusing. Are you talking about begging forgiveness for the White Australia policy, or refusing to atone for it? Most Trump voters, and nearly all of us here at iSteve, think you folks were mad to discontinue it.

    Were you taken in by our MLKBS? At any rate, you ignored the question Anon[262] posed "Perhaps Oz’s good fortune has something to do with population demographics?"

    (Perhaps you're too busy punishing Polynesian ruggers for questioning blokes marrying blokes.)


    pushing for the internal borders to be rapidly reopened, but polling indicates broad support for the border closures

     

    Wouldn't that be easier to enforce with Soviet-style internal passports that need visas and stamps? Instead of US-style anarchism where you can cross state borders without permission. So the money isn't wasted, you can keep it around long after the pandemic, as the UK did with rationing after the war.

    Come to think of it, as did Australia:

    Rationing in Australia during World War II


    Sharing a language with Americans is becoming a curse.
     
    And vice-versa. We should have learned from your Gallipoli experience and not have gone anzacking around Europe ourselves in 1917. Or 1941. No good came of this.

    Replies: @Anonymous, @Anon

  66. @The Germ Theory of Disease
    How to tell Austria and Australia apart...

    One country used to be part of an evil empire full of evil beer-drinking people who loved the outdoors, wanted to take over the world, and who genocided lots and lots of innocent people.

    The other country used to be part of a nice, good empire full of nice, friendly beer-drinking people who loved the outdoors, actually DID take over the world, and who also genocided lots and lots and lots of innocent people.

    Whether an empire is good or evil depends entirely on the particular type of innocent people they kill.

    Replies: @JMcG, @Pincher Martin, @Almost Missouri

    “Whether an empire is good or evil depends entirely on the particular type of innocent people they kill.”

    I would have stated it as,

    Whether an empire is good or evil depends entirely on which one wins the subsequent war between empires.

  67. @Steve Sailer
    The double-peaked top graph going up to 600 is Australia and the single-peaked lower graph going up to 1500 is Austria.

    At least, I think.

    Replies: @res, @Reg Cæsar, @The Alarmist, @Forbes

    You shouldn’t ask questions where you don’t already know the answer.

    The top one is Australia.

  68. @Steve Sailer
    The double-peaked top graph going up to 600 is Australia and the single-peaked lower graph going up to 1500 is Austria.

    At least, I think.

    Replies: @res, @Reg Cæsar, @The Alarmist, @Forbes

    As it’s flu season in Austria (northern hemisphere)–and not-flu season in Australia (southern hemisphere), there should be a noticeable difference.

  69. @Momus
    Correct Steve, the top bar graph is Australia, with 5 times the population of Austria.

    Replies: @The Alarmist

    More like with just under 3x the population of Österreich.

  70. @Dave from Oz
    @Almost Missouri


    • Also: opposite seasonalties. Only one has universal sunshine, open space and fresh air.
     
    We now are just coming in to winter. If it was about "opposite seasonalities", we would be at the disadvantage.

    • Only one has a basically patriotic and competent government.
     
    100%. In particular, the public service. The USA despises anything "public", at best it's a necessary evil. Australia is different.

    Replies: @Amerimutt Golems, @Almost Missouri, @Peterike

    We now are just coming in to winter. If it was about “opposite seasonalities”, we would be at the disadvantage.

    Yes, “would be”, in the future. Over the past few months, however, it was advantage: Terra Australis.

    Also, I don’t think anywhere in the temperate Northern Hemisphere other than the southwestern US can compete with Australia for disinfecting sunshine.

    • Only one has a basically patriotic and competent government.

    100%. In particular, the public service. The USA despises anything “public”, at best it’s a necessary evil. Australia is different.

    There are a few US state governments that are mostly competent. The unifying trait linking these state governments is a mystery whose answer is only known to esoteric HBD blogs.

  71. @PiltdownMan

    Which One Is Austria and Which One Is Australia?
     
    https://i.imgur.com/Aoy35bg.jpg

    https://i.imgur.com/NSNdyRo.jpg

    Replies: @Nodwink, @Bragadocious, @The Alarmist

    Pump your brakes kid … that man’s a national treasure!

  72. utu says:
    @Pincher Martin
    @Anonymous

    Greg Cochran has been right from the beginning.

    Had we followed Greg's advice, the U.S. economy would be open right now and our number of dead would be incredibly low. Americans would be in the position where they could go out in public without masks, visit their favorite restaurants, patronize bars and movie theaters, and perhaps even attend sporting events and concerts.

    Had we followed the advice of people like you, the U.S. would have half a million dead at the very minimum and its economy would be in a complete shutdown.

    When Chester Bowles was proved prescient about the Bay of Pigs, he was not promoted by John F. Kennedy. He was demoted and shunned and mocked. Why? Because dumb and arrogant people hate to be reminded of their mistakes. They prefer hanging out with other wrong-minded people. Bowles had to be removed not because he was wrong about the Bay of Pigs but because he was right.

    Greg Cochran is in a similar position with you morons. Forget all the crap about the exact IFR, excess death rates, herd immunity, and the like. Just remember this: If we had followed Greg's advice from the beginning, we would be in a far better place in every regard than we are today.

    And you guys hate him for that fact.

    Replies: @utu, @HA, @Peter Shaw

    “Had we followed Greg’s advice, the U.S. economy would be open right now and our number of dead would be incredibly low. “

    In the MSM media there was no discourse about the strategy to eradicate the virus. From the very beginning only two options were offered: (1) no mitigation aka herd immunity now and (2) mitigation by curve flattening, aka herd immunity down the road. The only difference between no mitigation and curve flattening was the reduction of fatalities by preventing the medical system being overwhelmed.

    When the concept of the curve flattening was introduced the unmitigated curve and the flattened curve were presented in the slide illustration where it just happened so that the areas under both curves appeared to be equal. People got the message that the number of people dead would be the same except for those caused by the overwhelmed health system. A third curve with much smaller area was never presented. The question is why. Why the US and most EU countries did not go for the ERADICATION option?

    The eradication option was doable as Taiwan, Hong Kong, S. Korea, Japan and New Zealand, Slovakia and to lesser extent Czech Republic and Austria have demonstrated. It took 49 days for New Zealand.

    If lockdowns were imposed earlier and if they were stricter and if borders were shut down right away and if mask wearing was mandatory form the very beginning and if aggressive contact tracing and contact quarantining was carried out the epidemic could have been quashed in six weeks and we would be back to normal already in early May except that contact tracing and mask wearing would have to stay for longer and most importantly borders would have to be put in a permanent epidemic mode for as long as they would be flare up of epidemic in other more stupid countries. One would think that the right and the alt-right would see it as their dream option of reasserting the sovereignty and renegotiating the immigration policy.

    Why we were not allowed to consider the option of the virus eradication? Is it because it would be a threat to globalism, it would foster resurgence of nationalistic right, it would bring national unity and solidarity, it would reestablish borders and national sovereignty? Or is it because a high impact of the epidemic was needed to turn the world and world public opinion against China, to turn China into the pariah nation according to the grand geopolitical scheme concocted by the cabal that Steve Bannon was and is occasionally channeling?

    The alt-right and their libertarian substrate as usual missed the opportunity and eded up being cast in the role of useful idiots. The discourse was captured by flu hoaxers, herd immunity fetishists and all kind of cannibalistic gerontophobs who worked towards defeating the curve flattening program with the herd immunity meme and doing it with as much noise as possible so the the real alternative of the VIRUSE ERADICATION would be never heard of.

    • Replies: @anon
    @utu

    The eradication option was doable as Taiwan, Hong Kong, S. Korea, Japan and New Zealand, Slovakia and to lesser extent Czech Republic and Austria have demonstrated.

    There's a thing that all those countries have in common, I'm sure, but it's a mystery what that is.

    Replies: @utu

    , @Pincher Martin
    @utu

    I completely agree with your comments on virus eradication and the cluelessness of the MSM in failing to present the public with all workable alternatives for fighting this disease, but I don't agree with your segue into the ideological underpinnings of why you believe we were never presented with the best alternative.

    You mentioned the success numerous countries have already had in eradicating the virus. All of them are well-integrated in the global economy, and a couple of them belong to that globalized entity the European Union. With perhaps one exception, which I will deal with in just a moment, I haven't seen any evidence that they are successful today for ideological reasons that push back against globalization.

    The one exception is Australia. The populist Prime Minister Scott Morrison has explicitly said that national sovereignty, not ideology, is his motivation in defending Australia from the coronavirus.

    I'm also confused by your remarks about China because they don't seem to jibe with the rest of your post. You write:


    Or is [the failure to eradicate the virus] because a high impact of the epidemic was needed to turn the world and world public opinion against China, to turn China into the pariah nation according to the grand geopolitical scheme concocted by the cabal that Steve Bannon was and is occasionally channeling?
     
    China's oversized role in the world today is *because* of globalization. It was the globalists, specifically the U.S. globalists, who pushed hardest over the last thirty years for China to be integrated into world markets. They were the ones who allowed for what is now China's critical role in the modern economy. When people wondered about the wisdom of allowing a powerful authoritarian government to be given that role without safeguards, they were shouted down by the globalists as not believing in progress. Don't worry, the globalists said, China will modernize its political system as it grows richer.

    China is important today because the globalists wanted it to be important. They were lured in by the money they would make by tapping into China's enormous reserve of productive people. Environmental concerns, national security concerns, labor concerns, human rights concerns all took a backseat to the money the globalists would make off China's integration.

    Replies: @utu

    , @Anonymous
    @utu

    Bravo. Great post.

    Technically elimination is the term for removing all infections with state or country and eradication refers to a state of elimination for every single country in the world. It may be too late for the latter but a network of CV eliminated countries seems possible.

    One thing that Australia did (I think you either left them out or mistyped as Austria?) was close internal borders early in several states, which really put the power and the responsibility on the shoulders of the state premiers. The direction from the PM has been softer than the line taken by the individual states. The PM doesn't appear to really understand this, AFAICT, but he did close the external borders to his credit, not early enough, but earlier than he might have done. However, the successful actions in clamping down on this have taught a lot of people that it's possible to eliminate if you try - and it wouldn't have happened if they didn't see it with their own eyes in their own country.

    In any case, elimination definitely has become part of the national discourse in AU though I think too bold a vision for most politicians to publicly commit to.

    As for what you have said wrt the whys of different response from AU and US... I also regret not backing Steve up in the comments instead of taking a month or so hiatus here. You have opinion leaders like Coulter who read the comments here, if there was some good discussions of more of the "how" and the "why" for elimination, maybe that would have been pivotal in getting the right onside.

    That being said, there are some key differences between USA and AU in terms of how the CV response plays out. AU "lead" the world in work-health safety nannyism. I think you can have too much of a good thing but it worked in the AU favor. The ability of the states to impose travel restrictions also worked in AU (technically not particularly constitutional but aside from some bleating from lawyers, they just sucked it up). And the libertarian/lolbertarian difference - AU ceded guns in the Port Arthur massacre but the US would never give up their 2A AFAICT. Their love of perceived freedom worked against them wrt virus response. See "mouth diapers". WTF?

    Another factor is Trump. Possibly the largest factor. Trump is a genius in many regards but maybe he is too old and too "muh economy" to have adapted well to CV. Because of his relatively inept response (he did close external borders quite early though) and his ill-chosen public statements about CV passing real soon now... the right leapt to his defense. Reality is that other than the CV, he has been an effective president. Probably the best one since Eisenhower maybe, up until 2020. That bought a lot of blind loyalty. If you are going to be blindly loyal to someone they had better be competent in all situations.

    Anyway, the inept US response is kind of bad, but not all bad potentially. I think it may be useful to have some push back against China unless there is a shooting war. It's undeniable that China did allow international travel while at the same time halting internal travel within their country. It was effectively a deliberate policy of infecting the world, and whatever the neocons wanted, this was 100% within Chinese control and they went to the extent of deliberately chiding other countries for imposing their own China travel bans. China is also acting obnoxiously with their island-building projects, and their takeover of other countries through immigration and asset purchase.

    It seems as though the likes of Soros have only just discovered that the enhanced economy have not really changed the Chinese. As Tarrant said, he thinks China has the best government as they are an ethnostate and do things best for the Han race. (I wish there was a large, white country with nukes that behaved this way in a non-expansionist manner.) This is obviously antithetical to Jewish power. However, I don't think the island building will work out for them, any more than Hitler's push East worked out for him, or Japan's empire building. While it is unlikely nukes will be used, China's economy is vulnerable to trade restriction.

    --

    BTW HA, is not wearing helmets on a motorbikes and bicycles still a thing in the USA? That's of the same lolbertarian ilk.

    Replies: @HA, @dfordoom, @utu

    , @J.Ross
    @utu

    Good point. The whole thing is made clear in the shill campaign visible from online influencers to mighty wurlizer airheads, where they flatly state that Trump killed however nany millions or Trump has given us a depressed economy, as though it was his idea and not the result of some major mitigating factor: meanwhile the imperious lockdowns have done more for the GOP than the sleepy elephant would do electorally for itself.

  73. @Anonymous
    @AKAHorace

    But facts and predictions matter at some point.

    I say this is nonsense and nonthreatening.

    Greg Cochran says the bodies are going to pile up at MY local hospital.

    These are two difterent views and only one of us can be right.

    So when does Steve admit Greg is wrong and Im right? Give me the date. June? July? August?

    Give me the date and get Steve to agree the question has been settled and one of us is right and the other wrong.

    Replies: @AKAHorace

    >Greg Cochran says the bodies are going to pile up at MY local hospital.

    Perhaps he is planning in going on some kind of killing spree in your area. He always seemed a bit bad tempered to me.

    >Give me the date and get Steve to agree the question has been settled and one of us is right and the >other wrong.

    We have already seen the virus kill a lot of people around New York and in Northern Italy. This is a pathogen that can kill a lot of people under the “right” circumstances. Steves recommendations to avoid being crammed together in large groups indoors (like the New York subway system) to wear masks and not to worry about outdoor activities like going to the beach seems pretty middle of the road compared to a lot of the advice out there.

    Why are you asking Steve for a date to prove Greg’s theories wrong ?

    • Replies: @Steve Sailer
    @AKAHorace

    I've been looking for months for ways to make the response a smarter blend of cheaper/effective. Lots of people, unfortunately, aren't interested in getting smarter about this new situation, they just want to double down on one dumb extreme position or the other.

    Replies: @AKAHorace

  74. Anonymous[109] • Disclaimer says:
    @res
    @Anonymous


    I know a lot of people here like to think of R0 as being 2-3, so if you can slice off say, 70% of the transmissions over the course of a typical infection through testing everyone symptomatic, the R(effective) becomes 0.6-0.9. If you use the CDC 5.7, then that’s 1.7.
     
    Here is the CDC report giving that 5.7 figure.
    https://wwwnc.cdc.gov/eid/article/26/7/20-0282_article
    As far as I can tell it became available 4/8 and uses even earlier data.
    https://web.archive.org/web/20200408063007/https://wwwnc.cdc.gov/eid/article/26/7/20-0282_article

    Here is the current CDC planning document.
    https://www.cdc.gov/coronavirus/2019-ncov/hcp/planning-scenarios.html
    https://www.cdc.gov/coronavirus/2019-ncov/hcp/planning-scenarios-h.pdf
    It gives low/best estimate/high figures for R0 of 2/2.5/3. It appears in the Internet Archive 5/21 and they say: "Parameter values are based on data received by CDC prior to 4/29/2020"

    Perhaps time to reconsider that 5.7 estimate? Or is everyone else lowballing R0 and you are correct?

    Replies: @Anonymous

    Good question. The way this thing spreads with aerosols as with the choir experience and has been hard to stamp out, it seems pretty darn infectious.

    But… at the end of the day the key variable in a mostly naive population, what is the doubling or halving time of new cases? Is it doubling or halving or staying the same? (Re >1, <1 or 1) And are there enough tests to test everyone (i.e. can you be sure you are catching most cases?)

    One could look at the few numbers of AU cases and make some sort of epicyclic argument that AU population was mainly immune from something else but I call BS on that. There is a reason you can't find hand sanitiser and hand wash on the shelves for months. We are using it! We are staying home. We are not sending kids to school. We are not going out on the town or even to restaurants. If we have symptoms we go to a testing station, and if positive all our contacts get tested. If you are a virus and "think" you are going to spread, good luck with that.

    And this shows up in the flu data, record low fever/cough symptoms for the time of year.

  75. OT:

    If someone coughs on me in public, how do I force them to get tested?

    As shops re-open, are their employees trained to take responsibility for this policing?

    Shouldn’t all shops require face masks to avoid these conflicts?

  76. @Pincher Martin
    @The Germ Theory of Disease

    Q: “Why is the British Empire described as the Empire on which the sun never sets?"

    A: "Because God didn't trust the poms with the lights out."

    Replies: @Reg Cæsar

    Should Pitcairn fall, the sun will set on the old empire. However, empire or no empire, the sun doesn’t set on France herself:


    • Replies: @AKAHorace
    @Reg Cæsar

    S


    hould Pitcairn fall, the sun will set on the old empire. However, empire or no empire, the sun doesn’t set on France herself:

     

    The French still have a lot of their overseas empire: all their islands in the Pacific, all but Haiti in the West Indies all but the Comoros in the Indian Ocean (and even their they detached one of the islands that wanted to stay French), French Guyana and a couple of islands of Canada. I don't understand why the Brits get so much criticism for the few holdings they have left while everyone seems to ignore France's overseas territories.
    , @Reg Cæsar
    @Reg Cæsar

    That map is mislabeled. There are at least five Eiffel Towers in South America, but none of those are in France.

    Copies of the Eiffel tower in Brazil

    France is probably the only country in South America with a Mont-St-Michel or Versailles, though. Should they copy Suriname and Guyana, France could join China (Hong Kong & Macau) and the United States (USVI) that drive on both the right and the left.

  77. @utu
    @Pincher Martin


    "Had we followed Greg’s advice, the U.S. economy would be open right now and our number of dead would be incredibly low. "
     
    In the MSM media there was no discourse about the strategy to eradicate the virus. From the very beginning only two options were offered: (1) no mitigation aka herd immunity now and (2) mitigation by curve flattening, aka herd immunity down the road. The only difference between no mitigation and curve flattening was the reduction of fatalities by preventing the medical system being overwhelmed.

    When the concept of the curve flattening was introduced the unmitigated curve and the flattened curve were presented in the slide illustration where it just happened so that the areas under both curves appeared to be equal. People got the message that the number of people dead would be the same except for those caused by the overwhelmed health system. A third curve with much smaller area was never presented. The question is why. Why the US and most EU countries did not go for the ERADICATION option?

    The eradication option was doable as Taiwan, Hong Kong, S. Korea, Japan and New Zealand, Slovakia and to lesser extent Czech Republic and Austria have demonstrated. It took 49 days for New Zealand.

    If lockdowns were imposed earlier and if they were stricter and if borders were shut down right away and if mask wearing was mandatory form the very beginning and if aggressive contact tracing and contact quarantining was carried out the epidemic could have been quashed in six weeks and we would be back to normal already in early May except that contact tracing and mask wearing would have to stay for longer and most importantly borders would have to be put in a permanent epidemic mode for as long as they would be flare up of epidemic in other more stupid countries. One would think that the right and the alt-right would see it as their dream option of reasserting the sovereignty and renegotiating the immigration policy.

    Why we were not allowed to consider the option of the virus eradication? Is it because it would be a threat to globalism, it would foster resurgence of nationalistic right, it would bring national unity and solidarity, it would reestablish borders and national sovereignty? Or is it because a high impact of the epidemic was needed to turn the world and world public opinion against China, to turn China into the pariah nation according to the grand geopolitical scheme concocted by the cabal that Steve Bannon was and is occasionally channeling?

    The alt-right and their libertarian substrate as usual missed the opportunity and eded up being cast in the role of useful idiots. The discourse was captured by flu hoaxers, herd immunity fetishists and all kind of cannibalistic gerontophobs who worked towards defeating the curve flattening program with the herd immunity meme and doing it with as much noise as possible so the the real alternative of the VIRUSE ERADICATION would be never heard of.

    Replies: @anon, @Pincher Martin, @Anonymous, @J.Ross

    The eradication option was doable as Taiwan, Hong Kong, S. Korea, Japan and New Zealand, Slovakia and to lesser extent Czech Republic and Austria have demonstrated.

    There’s a thing that all those countries have in common, I’m sure, but it’s a mystery what that is.

    • Replies: @utu
    @anon

    "There’s a thing that all those countries have in common..." - I know what you insinuate but you are wrong. . Race or 'diversity' it is not the direct cause. The countries like Slovakia and New Zealand are provincial, on the peripheries of the empire, the major political and ideological frontlines are drawn elsewhere. They are below the radar of the Eye of Sauron; this lets them to have moderately stronger ethno-nationalist policies. In NZ 16.5% are Maori. It is about political polarization that is fueled by race and diversity but it is not about the race. IMO, blacks in the US would be more likely to support the eradication option than the white alt-right of libertarian persuasion. The reason we are nowhere near the eradication option is because of very energetic anti-lockdown campaign on the alt-right side of the spectrum.

    Replies: @anon

  78. @AKAHorace
    @Anonymous

    >Greg Cochran says the bodies are going to pile up at MY local hospital.

    Perhaps he is planning in going on some kind of killing spree in your area. He always seemed a bit bad tempered to me.

    >Give me the date and get Steve to agree the question has been settled and one of us is right and the >other wrong.

    We have already seen the virus kill a lot of people around New York and in Northern Italy. This is a pathogen that can kill a lot of people under the "right" circumstances. Steves recommendations to avoid being crammed together in large groups indoors (like the New York subway system) to wear masks and not to worry about outdoor activities like going to the beach seems pretty middle of the road compared to a lot of the advice out there.

    Why are you asking Steve for a date to prove Greg's theories wrong ?

    Replies: @Steve Sailer

    I’ve been looking for months for ways to make the response a smarter blend of cheaper/effective. Lots of people, unfortunately, aren’t interested in getting smarter about this new situation, they just want to double down on one dumb extreme position or the other.

    • Replies: @AKAHorace
    @Steve Sailer


    Lots of people, unfortunately, aren’t interested in getting smarter about this new situation, they just want to double down on one dumb extreme position or the other.
     
    Too many questions have become ideological, with a right and a left position. To establish their left or right wing credentials people become more extreme in the positions they hold on them.

    I am not sure that there is any reason that not taking the Wuhan virus seriously should be the right wing rather than the left wing position, initially it seemed the other way around with warnings about the real danger being stigma rather than the virus (you must have seen the I am a human not a virus video https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=lULceASXv88 still good for a laugh). Perhaps the problem was that it did the most damage in densely packed New York rather than a Red state.
  79. @Reg Cæsar
    @Pincher Martin

    Should Pitcairn fall, the sun will set on the old empire. However, empire or no empire, the sun doesn't set on France herself:


    https://www.thelocal.fr/userdata/images/1540979791_Outre-mer.jpg


    https://i.redd.it/3qgq65y5evx21.jpg

    Replies: @AKAHorace, @Reg Cæsar

    S

    hould Pitcairn fall, the sun will set on the old empire. However, empire or no empire, the sun doesn’t set on France herself:

    The French still have a lot of their overseas empire: all their islands in the Pacific, all but Haiti in the West Indies all but the Comoros in the Indian Ocean (and even their they detached one of the islands that wanted to stay French), French Guyana and a couple of islands of Canada. I don’t understand why the Brits get so much criticism for the few holdings they have left while everyone seems to ignore France’s overseas territories.

  80. Should Pitcairn fall, the sun will set on the old empire. However, empire or no empire, the sun doesn’t set on France herself:

    The French still have a lot of their overseas empire: all their islands in the Pacific, all but Haiti in the West Indies all but the Comoros in the Indian Ocean (and even their they detached one of the islands that wanted to stay French), French Guyana and a couple of islands of Canada. I don’t understand why the Brits get so much criticism for the few holdings they have left while everyone seems to ignore France’s overseas territories.

    • Replies: @The Germ Theory of Disease
    @AKAHorace

    "The French still have a lot of their overseas empire"

    Oh come on, the French don't even have France any more.

  81. @Reg Cæsar
    @Pincher Martin

    Should Pitcairn fall, the sun will set on the old empire. However, empire or no empire, the sun doesn't set on France herself:


    https://www.thelocal.fr/userdata/images/1540979791_Outre-mer.jpg


    https://i.redd.it/3qgq65y5evx21.jpg

    Replies: @AKAHorace, @Reg Cæsar

    That map is mislabeled. There are at least five Eiffel Towers in South America, but none of those are in France.

    Copies of the Eiffel tower in Brazil

    France is probably the only country in South America with a Mont-St-Michel or Versailles, though. Should they copy Suriname and Guyana, France could join China (Hong Kong & Macau) and the United States (USVI) that drive on both the right and the left.

  82. @Joe Stalin
    @J.Ross

    https://i271.photobucket.com/albums/jj123/Rockyrhodes_77/49469429.jpg

    Replies: @J.Ross

    There ya go, it wasn’t wierd enough.

  83. utu says:
    @anon
    @utu

    The eradication option was doable as Taiwan, Hong Kong, S. Korea, Japan and New Zealand, Slovakia and to lesser extent Czech Republic and Austria have demonstrated.

    There's a thing that all those countries have in common, I'm sure, but it's a mystery what that is.

    Replies: @utu

    “There’s a thing that all those countries have in common…” – I know what you insinuate but you are wrong. . Race or ‘diversity’ it is not the direct cause. The countries like Slovakia and New Zealand are provincial, on the peripheries of the empire, the major political and ideological frontlines are drawn elsewhere. They are below the radar of the Eye of Sauron; this lets them to have moderately stronger ethno-nationalist policies. In NZ 16.5% are Maori. It is about political polarization that is fueled by race and diversity but it is not about the race. IMO, blacks in the US would be more likely to support the eradication option than the white alt-right of libertarian persuasion. The reason we are nowhere near the eradication option is because of very energetic anti-lockdown campaign on the alt-right side of the spectrum.

    • Replies: @anon
    @utu

    The eradication option was doable as Taiwan, Hong Kong, S. Korea, Japan and New Zealand, Slovakia and to lesser extent Czech Republic and Austria have demonstrated.

    There is still something....

    They are below the radar of the Eye of Sauron; this lets them to have moderately stronger ethno-nationalist policies.

    ...there's part of it, yep. Each of those countries is allowed to be a country...for a start. Plus demographics really do matter. No kidding. There might even be some genetic variation between groups.

    In NZ 16.5% are Maori.

    In an area they are adapted to, right? In NZ it's just now approaching autumn so everyone had adequate sun exposure and thus Vit. D. Plus NZ was able to engage in vicious, anti-Asian racism by shutting down the airport fairly early on, and still has good social coherence so contact tracing wasn't that difficult.

    IMO, blacks in the US would be more likely to support the eradication option

    What ever do you base that opinion on? Certainly not actions.

    It is not possible to eradicate a contagious disease if some percentage of the population deliberately ignores basic hygene. Early on there was a strong rumor in American black communities that only Asians could catch this stuff. Dumb, but no dumber than some things printed on Unz.com at the same time. Then there's the whole "gregarious" aspect...I'm assuming you've seen the vids of black Americans having massive block parties right in the middle of "don't gather in large groups" towns? Then there's the "you're NOT the boss of ME" aspect -- did you see the LA video of cops very gently escorting a whole bunch of black people away from a birthday party in the middle of "don't gather in large groups"? Did you see the reactions?

    than the white alt-right of libertarian persuasion

    lol. How many of those people do you think there are? Did they all storm into Chinatown in NYC or SF to have fun during Chinese New Year? Were they down in New Orleans during Mardi Gras? Some of them might have been in Florida for Spring Break, but...not many. Because there aren't that many.

    The army of strawmen that have showed up recently in comments here is astounding.

  84. @sb
    @Peter Akuleyev

    I would characterise Australians as pretty loud compared to Northern Europeans but excitable ?
    Wondering where you think Americans rank . Most non Americans consider Americans to be the measuring stick in these matters .
    Ever been to a beach or restaraunt filled with various nationalities ?

    Replies: @jbwilson24, @Ancient Briton

    “Wondering where you think Americans rank . Most non Americans consider Americans to be the measuring stick in these matters .”

    It’s a weird question. What kind of ‘American’? Blacks? Which kind, Somalis, African-Americans descended from slaves?

    Vietnamese immigrants? 80 year old Scots?

    Diversity makes these kind of questions kind of silly.

  85. @utu
    @Pincher Martin


    "Had we followed Greg’s advice, the U.S. economy would be open right now and our number of dead would be incredibly low. "
     
    In the MSM media there was no discourse about the strategy to eradicate the virus. From the very beginning only two options were offered: (1) no mitigation aka herd immunity now and (2) mitigation by curve flattening, aka herd immunity down the road. The only difference between no mitigation and curve flattening was the reduction of fatalities by preventing the medical system being overwhelmed.

    When the concept of the curve flattening was introduced the unmitigated curve and the flattened curve were presented in the slide illustration where it just happened so that the areas under both curves appeared to be equal. People got the message that the number of people dead would be the same except for those caused by the overwhelmed health system. A third curve with much smaller area was never presented. The question is why. Why the US and most EU countries did not go for the ERADICATION option?

    The eradication option was doable as Taiwan, Hong Kong, S. Korea, Japan and New Zealand, Slovakia and to lesser extent Czech Republic and Austria have demonstrated. It took 49 days for New Zealand.

    If lockdowns were imposed earlier and if they were stricter and if borders were shut down right away and if mask wearing was mandatory form the very beginning and if aggressive contact tracing and contact quarantining was carried out the epidemic could have been quashed in six weeks and we would be back to normal already in early May except that contact tracing and mask wearing would have to stay for longer and most importantly borders would have to be put in a permanent epidemic mode for as long as they would be flare up of epidemic in other more stupid countries. One would think that the right and the alt-right would see it as their dream option of reasserting the sovereignty and renegotiating the immigration policy.

    Why we were not allowed to consider the option of the virus eradication? Is it because it would be a threat to globalism, it would foster resurgence of nationalistic right, it would bring national unity and solidarity, it would reestablish borders and national sovereignty? Or is it because a high impact of the epidemic was needed to turn the world and world public opinion against China, to turn China into the pariah nation according to the grand geopolitical scheme concocted by the cabal that Steve Bannon was and is occasionally channeling?

    The alt-right and their libertarian substrate as usual missed the opportunity and eded up being cast in the role of useful idiots. The discourse was captured by flu hoaxers, herd immunity fetishists and all kind of cannibalistic gerontophobs who worked towards defeating the curve flattening program with the herd immunity meme and doing it with as much noise as possible so the the real alternative of the VIRUSE ERADICATION would be never heard of.

    Replies: @anon, @Pincher Martin, @Anonymous, @J.Ross

    I completely agree with your comments on virus eradication and the cluelessness of the MSM in failing to present the public with all workable alternatives for fighting this disease, but I don’t agree with your segue into the ideological underpinnings of why you believe we were never presented with the best alternative.

    You mentioned the success numerous countries have already had in eradicating the virus. All of them are well-integrated in the global economy, and a couple of them belong to that globalized entity the European Union. With perhaps one exception, which I will deal with in just a moment, I haven’t seen any evidence that they are successful today for ideological reasons that push back against globalization.

    The one exception is Australia. The populist Prime Minister Scott Morrison has explicitly said that national sovereignty, not ideology, is his motivation in defending Australia from the coronavirus.

    I’m also confused by your remarks about China because they don’t seem to jibe with the rest of your post. You write:

    Or is [the failure to eradicate the virus] because a high impact of the epidemic was needed to turn the world and world public opinion against China, to turn China into the pariah nation according to the grand geopolitical scheme concocted by the cabal that Steve Bannon was and is occasionally channeling?

    China’s oversized role in the world today is *because* of globalization. It was the globalists, specifically the U.S. globalists, who pushed hardest over the last thirty years for China to be integrated into world markets. They were the ones who allowed for what is now China’s critical role in the modern economy. When people wondered about the wisdom of allowing a powerful authoritarian government to be given that role without safeguards, they were shouted down by the globalists as not believing in progress. Don’t worry, the globalists said, China will modernize its political system as it grows richer.

    China is important today because the globalists wanted it to be important. They were lured in by the money they would make by tapping into China’s enormous reserve of productive people. Environmental concerns, national security concerns, labor concerns, human rights concerns all took a backseat to the money the globalists would make off China’s integration.

    • Replies: @utu
    @Pincher Martin

    "I haven’t seen any evidence that they are successful today for ideological reasons that push back against globalization." - Probably you are correct but those countries did what would any normal person do. Perhaps they did not get the memo to mishandle the epidemic because they are under the radar of the Eye of Sauron as being provincial and peripheral.

    "China’s oversized role in the world today is *because* of globalization." - Again this is correct but there is a cabal that wants to change it and having the world being angry with China is what they want and this is being accomplished by not handling the epidemic well to make it worse than it had to be: Make China Pay for It! Is it possible that the memo was about trapping us in the idiot's limbo between herd immunity meme and curve flattening meme while the only right approach was outside this false alternative.

    Replies: @Pincher Martin

  86. @Anonymous
    @anon

    All the states and territories, except the two most populous, New South Wales and Victoria, closed their borders. In the states that closed, goods could pass, but travellers either had to to quarantine , or were outright banned.

    Currently the Aussie MAGAs and trolls are parroting the BS coming out of the US, and are pushing for the internal borders to be rapidly reopened, but polling indicates broad support for the border closures, and for gradual reopening. Sharing a language with Americans is becoming a curse.

    Replies: @Reg Cæsar

    All the states and territories, except the two most populous, New South Wales and Victoria, closed their borders.

    In other words, Austronymous, half the country. The busiest borders. Those in the ACT, an enclave, were trapped.

    Currently the Aussie MAGAs and trolls are parroting the BS coming out of the US…

    This is confusing. Are you talking about begging forgiveness for the White Australia policy, or refusing to atone for it? Most Trump voters, and nearly all of us here at iSteve, think you folks were mad to discontinue it.

    Were you taken in by our MLKBS? At any rate, you ignored the question Anon[262] posed “Perhaps Oz’s good fortune has something to do with population demographics?”

    (Perhaps you’re too busy punishing Polynesian ruggers for questioning blokes marrying blokes.)

    pushing for the internal borders to be rapidly reopened, but polling indicates broad support for the border closures

    Wouldn’t that be easier to enforce with Soviet-style internal passports that need visas and stamps? Instead of US-style anarchism where you can cross state borders without permission. So the money isn’t wasted, you can keep it around long after the pandemic, as the UK did with rationing after the war.

    Come to think of it, as did Australia:

    Rationing in Australia during World War II

    Sharing a language with Americans is becoming a curse.

    And vice-versa. We should have learned from your Gallipoli experience and not have gone anzacking around Europe ourselves in 1917. Or 1941. No good came of this.

    • Replies: @Anonymous
    @Reg Cæsar

    This is confusing. Are you talking about begging forgiveness for the White Australia policy, or refusing to atone for it? Most Trump voters, and nearly all of us here at iSteve, think you folks were mad to discontinue it.

    No, he's talking about the herd immunity push from the lolbertarian MAGA crew.

    And vice-versa. We should have learned from your Gallipoli experience and not have gone anzacking around Europe ourselves in 1917. Or 1941. No good came of this.

    You did. You learned to combat load your troops so that the moment you hit the ground, you could fight. In US military schools the Australian experience in Gallipoli is the literal textbook example how not to assault a coastline. In Australia they had troops on one ship, arms on another, and so on and so forth. If you point this out to Australians.

    TBH I am not sure whether they learned this prior to 1917 or not, but they certainly use Australia as an example of how not to conduct such an operation.

    Replies: @JMcG

    , @Anon
    @Reg Cæsar


    Those in the ACT, an enclave, were trapped.
     
    The ACT is surrounded by NSW, which did not have border closures, so they were not trapped.

    Replies: @Reg Cæsar

  87. For those not keeping up-to-date on the Antipodes, more cuckery:

    New Zealand’s Crusaders change logo after Christchurch attack

    So now they look like the Cleveland Indians of 1973.

    No more of this:

  88. Anonymous[413] • Disclaimer says:

    I’ve been looking for months for ways to make the response a smarter blend of cheaper/effective. Lots of people, unfortunately, aren’t interested in getting smarter about this new situation, they just want to double down on one dumb extreme position or the other.

    Steve, one thing I have never been for is a full lockdown, as it’s not sustainable. Before we really knew how this was going to play out, a lot of others (especially in the medical community) were for locking down the entire society, no one goes to work or school (except for groceries basically) for 6-8 weeks, something like that. I have never been for that because back then, you couldn’t tell what R was actually going to do until the borders closed, the new infection “embers” stopped drifting in, and you could see whether the local infections were doubling or halving. i.e. we didn’t know how long this was going to take, so the solution needed to be sustainable.

    Except for the brief period where I asked some devil’s advocate questions regarding herd immunity in early March, I have been for a cost effective elimination solution. I think you’ll find that utu, Pincher Martin, dfordoom and maybe some other names here are now for the same thing. Who here is advocating for expensive, most-of-society lockdowns now? To your credit, you were early on elimination, early on masks. Well done.

    As for the doubling down on a “dumb extreme position”, I don’t think you’ll find many people doubling down on “lockdown all of society at any cost”. The herd immunity crew are mostly a different story. At least res has been providing links, data and argument, I will give him credit for that.

    Anyway, cheaper, more effective (elimination). Good stuff, Steve.

    Possibly the hardest thing to separate is the seasonality (again, acknowledgment to res). I look forward to more AU cold/flu symptom data as we start getting in to that season proper. Fortunately from the perspective of determining an answer to this question there are still about 10 cases per day being discovered here, so we will need to keep some measures up for a while and this will provide a comparison vs historical. However, we do know that the symptoms are at record lows compared to the same time of year historically.

    OTOH, why did the cases in Singapore spiral out of control for a while? They have basically the same climate year round (tropical, i.e. humid, and very warm, with apparent temperature of “damn hot” due to combo of temperature and humidity). And somehow I doubt that their guest workers were housed in places with better A/C than the rest of Singapore, which is where the virus has been known to spread out of control.

    Unless we dispense with the Germ Theory of Disease, we can’t get CV from bad air (like mal-aria). So to the extent there is seasonality, and there likely is, I would expect it so play out primarily as enhanced transmission where transmission reduction is mild or absent. Where effective measures are in place it won’t matter what season it is. Near-zero x 5.7 is still <1. And where measures are mild or absent I would still expect spread regardless of season. There may be some middle ground of moderate measures where the season dictates growth or reduction of cases.

    Taiwan has a flu season that goes from November to March. And yet their cases peaked in early March. One would suspect that if seasonality was the main factor then exponential growth would have continued during that time.

    https://www.cdc.gov.tw/En/Category/ListContent/bg0g_VU_Ysrgkes_KRUDgQ?uaid=Zvnt3Ff941PorUmUD0-leA

    https://www.worldometers.info/coronavirus/country/taiwan/

    Unfortunately for trying to determine seasonality, the world seemed to adopt measures to reduce transmission in March, April, at the same time as the Northern Hemisphere was leaving winter. OTOH now that the Southern hemisphere is entering flu season (e.g. see below for Brazil, which is now apparently increasing cases exponentially). Who knows what they can achieve with their favelas, they look kind of like ideal reservoirs for CV to me, uncontrollable and packed in tightly.

    Seasonality in mortality was most pronounced in southern states (winter epidemics, June–July), gradually attenuated toward central states (15°S) (p < 0.001), and remained low near the equator. A seasonal southward traveling wave of influenza was identified across Brazil, originating from equatorial and low-population regions in March–April and moving toward temperate and highly populous regions over a 3-month period.

    It seems most of South America (Brazil, Chile, Argentina, Bolivia) is in exponential growth, while Paraguay and Uruguay are now in exponential decay. Falklands have eliminated (which is near-world leading in testing/capita, I think not coincidentally). Chile is probably the best tested outside of the Falklands, but is not wonderful.

    Not sure what is going on in Uruguay or Paraguay. Not much testing. If you don’t test, you don’t find? I think I’ve done enough research today.

    One thing to keep in mind is that in AU they have plenty of testing now. Recently AU have had meatworks, hospital and nursing home outbreaks. They were stomped on, hard, basically testing everyone who was there. I think if we had a “let ‘er rip” mentality we’d be in exponential growth now. So it seems that we are controlling it despite the season. And it makes sense – CV doesn’t spread by magic, it spreads because people have respiratory systems, they breathe, talk, sing, cough etc. And those particles either land on things and contact a mucus membrane by hands touching face, or they are inhaled or land on the eyes, mouth, etc. If you systematically remove the linkages by which the virus particles can infect other people, well, surprise surprise, infections reduce and reduce.

  89. @J.Ross
    Australia's military at one point bought that really funky-looking reinvention of the rifle by Steyr of Austria. They decided to help people tell them apart by calling the antipodal ones "Aus-Steyrs."

    Replies: @Diversity Heretic, @Joe Stalin, @Stealth

    The AUG has thus far proven to be a competent design. It might be funny looking to us, but France and England also issue bullpup style rifles to their troops.

    • Replies: @J.Ross
    @Stealth

    --AUG is a good rifle.
    Surely. I'm a sucker for aesthetics, but what it does wierd it also does right, and Steyr is a top brand.
    --Just look at the FAMAS
    uhh ...
    --and the L85
    https://68.media.tumblr.com/tumblr_m5tzcpD6fr1r9zmvgo1_r2_500.gif

    Replies: @Stealth, @I. Racist

    , @JMcG
    @Stealth

    France recently moved to the HK 416. Basically an M16.

    Replies: @Stealth

  90. Anonymous[413] • Disclaimer says:
    @Reg Cæsar
    @Anonymous


    All the states and territories, except the two most populous, New South Wales and Victoria, closed their borders.
     
    In other words, Austronymous, half the country. The busiest borders. Those in the ACT, an enclave, were trapped.

    Currently the Aussie MAGAs and trolls are parroting the BS coming out of the US...
     
    This is confusing. Are you talking about begging forgiveness for the White Australia policy, or refusing to atone for it? Most Trump voters, and nearly all of us here at iSteve, think you folks were mad to discontinue it.

    Were you taken in by our MLKBS? At any rate, you ignored the question Anon[262] posed "Perhaps Oz’s good fortune has something to do with population demographics?"

    (Perhaps you're too busy punishing Polynesian ruggers for questioning blokes marrying blokes.)


    pushing for the internal borders to be rapidly reopened, but polling indicates broad support for the border closures

     

    Wouldn't that be easier to enforce with Soviet-style internal passports that need visas and stamps? Instead of US-style anarchism where you can cross state borders without permission. So the money isn't wasted, you can keep it around long after the pandemic, as the UK did with rationing after the war.

    Come to think of it, as did Australia:

    Rationing in Australia during World War II


    Sharing a language with Americans is becoming a curse.
     
    And vice-versa. We should have learned from your Gallipoli experience and not have gone anzacking around Europe ourselves in 1917. Or 1941. No good came of this.

    Replies: @Anonymous, @Anon

    This is confusing. Are you talking about begging forgiveness for the White Australia policy, or refusing to atone for it? Most Trump voters, and nearly all of us here at iSteve, think you folks were mad to discontinue it.

    No, he’s talking about the herd immunity push from the lolbertarian MAGA crew.

    And vice-versa. We should have learned from your Gallipoli experience and not have gone anzacking around Europe ourselves in 1917. Or 1941. No good came of this.

    You did. You learned to combat load your troops so that the moment you hit the ground, you could fight. In US military schools the Australian experience in Gallipoli is the literal textbook example how not to assault a coastline. In Australia they had troops on one ship, arms on another, and so on and so forth. If you point this out to Australians.

    TBH I am not sure whether they learned this prior to 1917 or not, but they certainly use Australia as an example of how not to conduct such an operation.

    • Replies: @JMcG
    @Anonymous

    Famously, the transports at Guadalcanal weren’t combat loaded, contributing much to the difficulties the 1st Marine Division and the USN faced there. My sense is that they knew it was important, but ran out of time to restow the holds.

    My great Uncle was at Gallipoli with the 29th Division. He survived that to be killed on the first day of the Somme.

  91. utu says:
    @Pincher Martin
    @utu

    I completely agree with your comments on virus eradication and the cluelessness of the MSM in failing to present the public with all workable alternatives for fighting this disease, but I don't agree with your segue into the ideological underpinnings of why you believe we were never presented with the best alternative.

    You mentioned the success numerous countries have already had in eradicating the virus. All of them are well-integrated in the global economy, and a couple of them belong to that globalized entity the European Union. With perhaps one exception, which I will deal with in just a moment, I haven't seen any evidence that they are successful today for ideological reasons that push back against globalization.

    The one exception is Australia. The populist Prime Minister Scott Morrison has explicitly said that national sovereignty, not ideology, is his motivation in defending Australia from the coronavirus.

    I'm also confused by your remarks about China because they don't seem to jibe with the rest of your post. You write:


    Or is [the failure to eradicate the virus] because a high impact of the epidemic was needed to turn the world and world public opinion against China, to turn China into the pariah nation according to the grand geopolitical scheme concocted by the cabal that Steve Bannon was and is occasionally channeling?
     
    China's oversized role in the world today is *because* of globalization. It was the globalists, specifically the U.S. globalists, who pushed hardest over the last thirty years for China to be integrated into world markets. They were the ones who allowed for what is now China's critical role in the modern economy. When people wondered about the wisdom of allowing a powerful authoritarian government to be given that role without safeguards, they were shouted down by the globalists as not believing in progress. Don't worry, the globalists said, China will modernize its political system as it grows richer.

    China is important today because the globalists wanted it to be important. They were lured in by the money they would make by tapping into China's enormous reserve of productive people. Environmental concerns, national security concerns, labor concerns, human rights concerns all took a backseat to the money the globalists would make off China's integration.

    Replies: @utu

    “I haven’t seen any evidence that they are successful today for ideological reasons that push back against globalization.” – Probably you are correct but those countries did what would any normal person do. Perhaps they did not get the memo to mishandle the epidemic because they are under the radar of the Eye of Sauron as being provincial and peripheral.

    “China’s oversized role in the world today is *because* of globalization.” – Again this is correct but there is a cabal that wants to change it and having the world being angry with China is what they want and this is being accomplished by not handling the epidemic well to make it worse than it had to be: Make China Pay for It! Is it possible that the memo was about trapping us in the idiot’s limbo between herd immunity meme and curve flattening meme while the only right approach was outside this false alternative.

    • Replies: @Pincher Martin
    @utu

    It's natural that China and the United States would be antagonists. One is a rising power and the other is a status quo or declining power. One might hope that the inevitable clash will be mild in comparison to previous great power conflicts and free of over-the-top ideological claims, but I wouldn't bet on it.

    The anomaly was that the United States and China would get along so well over the last thirty years while sharing so little in common. There's no precedent for it. But the Sino-American relationship since Tiananmen and the end of the Cold War was driven by business interests who wanted to see it put on an even keel. The GWOT and (bizarrely) Russia also kept US strategists busy with other matters as China grew more powerful.

    Trump is really the first president since Eisenhower to challenge Chinese interests in a direct way. Trump does it in his own half-focused and bizarre manner, but he recognizes a fundamental reality about the relationship that should've been recognized by U.S. policymakers by 2000 at the latest. China is not a friend or a partner.

    Having said that I don't blame China for the failed U.S. response to COVID-19. That's all on America. China did lie, did cover up, and did use it influence to bully others into compliance about its initial handling of the virus - and so what. We in the U.S. still had plenty of time to adopt measures that would've prevented this disaster from happening. That we failed to do so is on us, not China.

    Replies: @anon

  92. @Steve Sailer
    @AKAHorace

    I've been looking for months for ways to make the response a smarter blend of cheaper/effective. Lots of people, unfortunately, aren't interested in getting smarter about this new situation, they just want to double down on one dumb extreme position or the other.

    Replies: @AKAHorace

    Lots of people, unfortunately, aren’t interested in getting smarter about this new situation, they just want to double down on one dumb extreme position or the other.

    Too many questions have become ideological, with a right and a left position. To establish their left or right wing credentials people become more extreme in the positions they hold on them.

    I am not sure that there is any reason that not taking the Wuhan virus seriously should be the right wing rather than the left wing position, initially it seemed the other way around with warnings about the real danger being stigma rather than the virus (you must have seen the I am a human not a virus video

    still good for a laugh). Perhaps the problem was that it did the most damage in densely packed New York rather than a Red state.

  93. @Stealth
    @J.Ross

    The AUG has thus far proven to be a competent design. It might be funny looking to us, but France and England also issue bullpup style rifles to their troops.

    Replies: @J.Ross, @JMcG

    –AUG is a good rifle.
    Surely. I’m a sucker for aesthetics, but what it does wierd it also does right, and Steyr is a top brand.
    –Just look at the FAMAS
    uhh …
    –and the L85

    • Replies: @Stealth
    @J.Ross


    –Just look at the FAMAS
    uhh …
    –and the L85
     
    I didn't know until recently that the FAMAS is a very picky eater. Only steel case ammo with 55 grain bullets. It's sort of iconic looking, so it makes me sad that they're replacing it.
    , @I. Racist
    @J.Ross

    In a 50 round qualification shoot, I had two failures. In addition to the usual failures to feed, stovepipes and light primer strikes, it would occasionally fail to extract a spent casing. Accepted practice in this event was to hand the rifle to an NCO who would smash the charging handle against a fixed object with all of his might (other ranks not being trusted to perform such delicate operation). This didn't inspire much confidence when deploying with it.

    There's a reason neither the Aussie or kiwi SAS used the AUG in anger: they had a choice.

    Replies: @Joe Stalin, @J.Ross

  94. HA says:
    @Pincher Martin
    @Anonymous

    Greg Cochran has been right from the beginning.

    Had we followed Greg's advice, the U.S. economy would be open right now and our number of dead would be incredibly low. Americans would be in the position where they could go out in public without masks, visit their favorite restaurants, patronize bars and movie theaters, and perhaps even attend sporting events and concerts.

    Had we followed the advice of people like you, the U.S. would have half a million dead at the very minimum and its economy would be in a complete shutdown.

    When Chester Bowles was proved prescient about the Bay of Pigs, he was not promoted by John F. Kennedy. He was demoted and shunned and mocked. Why? Because dumb and arrogant people hate to be reminded of their mistakes. They prefer hanging out with other wrong-minded people. Bowles had to be removed not because he was wrong about the Bay of Pigs but because he was right.

    Greg Cochran is in a similar position with you morons. Forget all the crap about the exact IFR, excess death rates, herd immunity, and the like. Just remember this: If we had followed Greg's advice from the beginning, we would be in a far better place in every regard than we are today.

    And you guys hate him for that fact.

    Replies: @utu, @HA, @Peter Shaw

    “When Chester Bowles was proved prescient about the Bay of Pigs, he was not promoted by John F. Kennedy. He was demoted and shunned and mocked.”

    Cochran has spoken about this as well. To paraphrase what he said, the ones who were wrong about Iraq went on to have illustrious careers in Washington. The ones who were right, if they were lucky, eventually found a spot at Unz.com.

    And you’re right about the fact that if everyone — especially the apparatchiks in Wuhan — had actually taken this seriously from the beginning as opposed to just letting it rip and pretending it was just the flu, we’d be far better off right now. But it’s a work in progress. It took decades for the majority to recognize that “smoking rights advocates” were just a bunch of tobacco-lobby useful idiots (actually, just plain idiots), and pathetic little dweebs convinced that nicotine addition was a necessary prop in their He-man bad-boy schtick that they used to impress women (and after all, lung cancer mostly kills those who are old and decrepit anyway, just like a certain virus, and who cares about people like that?).

    Now, the same little pansies who used to cry about the nanny-state taking away their cigarettes are instead throwing tantrums because the nanny-state shut down their gym for two months. Something similar can be said of seat belt avoidance and drunk driving — that used to be part of the bad boy schtick, too, but now, not so much. I call that progress.

    • Replies: @Pincher Martin
    @HA

    I'm amused by the coronavirus tough guys who don't want to wear masks because they want everyone to know they aren't afraid of a little virus. Especially the ones who are over fifty and on the edge of, if not plopped right over, obesity.

    Replies: @dfordoom

  95. anon[288] • Disclaimer says:
    @utu
    @anon

    "There’s a thing that all those countries have in common..." - I know what you insinuate but you are wrong. . Race or 'diversity' it is not the direct cause. The countries like Slovakia and New Zealand are provincial, on the peripheries of the empire, the major political and ideological frontlines are drawn elsewhere. They are below the radar of the Eye of Sauron; this lets them to have moderately stronger ethno-nationalist policies. In NZ 16.5% are Maori. It is about political polarization that is fueled by race and diversity but it is not about the race. IMO, blacks in the US would be more likely to support the eradication option than the white alt-right of libertarian persuasion. The reason we are nowhere near the eradication option is because of very energetic anti-lockdown campaign on the alt-right side of the spectrum.

    Replies: @anon

    The eradication option was doable as Taiwan, Hong Kong, S. Korea, Japan and New Zealand, Slovakia and to lesser extent Czech Republic and Austria have demonstrated.

    There is still something….

    They are below the radar of the Eye of Sauron; this lets them to have moderately stronger ethno-nationalist policies.

    …there’s part of it, yep. Each of those countries is allowed to be a country…for a start. Plus demographics really do matter. No kidding. There might even be some genetic variation between groups.

    In NZ 16.5% are Maori.

    In an area they are adapted to, right? In NZ it’s just now approaching autumn so everyone had adequate sun exposure and thus Vit. D. Plus NZ was able to engage in vicious, anti-Asian racism by shutting down the airport fairly early on, and still has good social coherence so contact tracing wasn’t that difficult.

    IMO, blacks in the US would be more likely to support the eradication option

    What ever do you base that opinion on? Certainly not actions.

    It is not possible to eradicate a contagious disease if some percentage of the population deliberately ignores basic hygene. Early on there was a strong rumor in American black communities that only Asians could catch this stuff. Dumb, but no dumber than some things printed on Unz.com at the same time. Then there’s the whole “gregarious” aspect…I’m assuming you’ve seen the vids of black Americans having massive block parties right in the middle of “don’t gather in large groups” towns? Then there’s the “you’re NOT the boss of ME” aspect — did you see the LA video of cops very gently escorting a whole bunch of black people away from a birthday party in the middle of “don’t gather in large groups”? Did you see the reactions?

    than the white alt-right of libertarian persuasion

    lol. How many of those people do you think there are? Did they all storm into Chinatown in NYC or SF to have fun during Chinese New Year? Were they down in New Orleans during Mardi Gras? Some of them might have been in Florida for Spring Break, but…not many. Because there aren’t that many.

    The army of strawmen that have showed up recently in comments here is astounding.

  96. @AKAHorace

    Should Pitcairn fall, the sun will set on the old empire. However, empire or no empire, the sun doesn’t set on France herself:

     

    The French still have a lot of their overseas empire: all their islands in the Pacific, all but Haiti in the West Indies all but the Comoros in the Indian Ocean (and even their they detached one of the islands that wanted to stay French), French Guyana and a couple of islands of Canada. I don't understand why the Brits get so much criticism for the few holdings they have left while everyone seems to ignore France's overseas territories.

    Replies: @The Germ Theory of Disease

    “The French still have a lot of their overseas empire”

    Oh come on, the French don’t even have France any more.

  97. @Stealth
    @J.Ross

    The AUG has thus far proven to be a competent design. It might be funny looking to us, but France and England also issue bullpup style rifles to their troops.

    Replies: @J.Ross, @JMcG

    France recently moved to the HK 416. Basically an M16.

    • Replies: @Stealth
    @JMcG

    Have they actually deployed the new rifles yet? I thought they were still using the FAMAS.

    Replies: @JMcG

  98. Anonymous[413] • Disclaimer says:
    @utu
    @Pincher Martin


    "Had we followed Greg’s advice, the U.S. economy would be open right now and our number of dead would be incredibly low. "
     
    In the MSM media there was no discourse about the strategy to eradicate the virus. From the very beginning only two options were offered: (1) no mitigation aka herd immunity now and (2) mitigation by curve flattening, aka herd immunity down the road. The only difference between no mitigation and curve flattening was the reduction of fatalities by preventing the medical system being overwhelmed.

    When the concept of the curve flattening was introduced the unmitigated curve and the flattened curve were presented in the slide illustration where it just happened so that the areas under both curves appeared to be equal. People got the message that the number of people dead would be the same except for those caused by the overwhelmed health system. A third curve with much smaller area was never presented. The question is why. Why the US and most EU countries did not go for the ERADICATION option?

    The eradication option was doable as Taiwan, Hong Kong, S. Korea, Japan and New Zealand, Slovakia and to lesser extent Czech Republic and Austria have demonstrated. It took 49 days for New Zealand.

    If lockdowns were imposed earlier and if they were stricter and if borders were shut down right away and if mask wearing was mandatory form the very beginning and if aggressive contact tracing and contact quarantining was carried out the epidemic could have been quashed in six weeks and we would be back to normal already in early May except that contact tracing and mask wearing would have to stay for longer and most importantly borders would have to be put in a permanent epidemic mode for as long as they would be flare up of epidemic in other more stupid countries. One would think that the right and the alt-right would see it as their dream option of reasserting the sovereignty and renegotiating the immigration policy.

    Why we were not allowed to consider the option of the virus eradication? Is it because it would be a threat to globalism, it would foster resurgence of nationalistic right, it would bring national unity and solidarity, it would reestablish borders and national sovereignty? Or is it because a high impact of the epidemic was needed to turn the world and world public opinion against China, to turn China into the pariah nation according to the grand geopolitical scheme concocted by the cabal that Steve Bannon was and is occasionally channeling?

    The alt-right and their libertarian substrate as usual missed the opportunity and eded up being cast in the role of useful idiots. The discourse was captured by flu hoaxers, herd immunity fetishists and all kind of cannibalistic gerontophobs who worked towards defeating the curve flattening program with the herd immunity meme and doing it with as much noise as possible so the the real alternative of the VIRUSE ERADICATION would be never heard of.

    Replies: @anon, @Pincher Martin, @Anonymous, @J.Ross

    Bravo. Great post.

    Technically elimination is the term for removing all infections with state or country and eradication refers to a state of elimination for every single country in the world. It may be too late for the latter but a network of CV eliminated countries seems possible.

    One thing that Australia did (I think you either left them out or mistyped as Austria?) was close internal borders early in several states, which really put the power and the responsibility on the shoulders of the state premiers. The direction from the PM has been softer than the line taken by the individual states. The PM doesn’t appear to really understand this, AFAICT, but he did close the external borders to his credit, not early enough, but earlier than he might have done. However, the successful actions in clamping down on this have taught a lot of people that it’s possible to eliminate if you try – and it wouldn’t have happened if they didn’t see it with their own eyes in their own country.

    In any case, elimination definitely has become part of the national discourse in AU though I think too bold a vision for most politicians to publicly commit to.

    As for what you have said wrt the whys of different response from AU and US… I also regret not backing Steve up in the comments instead of taking a month or so hiatus here. You have opinion leaders like Coulter who read the comments here, if there was some good discussions of more of the “how” and the “why” for elimination, maybe that would have been pivotal in getting the right onside.

    That being said, there are some key differences between USA and AU in terms of how the CV response plays out. AU “lead” the world in work-health safety nannyism. I think you can have too much of a good thing but it worked in the AU favor. The ability of the states to impose travel restrictions also worked in AU (technically not particularly constitutional but aside from some bleating from lawyers, they just sucked it up). And the libertarian/lolbertarian difference – AU ceded guns in the Port Arthur massacre but the US would never give up their 2A AFAICT. Their love of perceived freedom worked against them wrt virus response. See “mouth diapers”. WTF?

    Another factor is Trump. Possibly the largest factor. Trump is a genius in many regards but maybe he is too old and too “muh economy” to have adapted well to CV. Because of his relatively inept response (he did close external borders quite early though) and his ill-chosen public statements about CV passing real soon now… the right leapt to his defense. Reality is that other than the CV, he has been an effective president. Probably the best one since Eisenhower maybe, up until 2020. That bought a lot of blind loyalty. If you are going to be blindly loyal to someone they had better be competent in all situations.

    Anyway, the inept US response is kind of bad, but not all bad potentially. I think it may be useful to have some push back against China unless there is a shooting war. It’s undeniable that China did allow international travel while at the same time halting internal travel within their country. It was effectively a deliberate policy of infecting the world, and whatever the neocons wanted, this was 100% within Chinese control and they went to the extent of deliberately chiding other countries for imposing their own China travel bans. China is also acting obnoxiously with their island-building projects, and their takeover of other countries through immigration and asset purchase.

    It seems as though the likes of Soros have only just discovered that the enhanced economy have not really changed the Chinese. As Tarrant said, he thinks China has the best government as they are an ethnostate and do things best for the Han race. (I wish there was a large, white country with nukes that behaved this way in a non-expansionist manner.) This is obviously antithetical to Jewish power. However, I don’t think the island building will work out for them, any more than Hitler’s push East worked out for him, or Japan’s empire building. While it is unlikely nukes will be used, China’s economy is vulnerable to trade restriction.

    BTW HA, is not wearing helmets on a motorbikes and bicycles still a thing in the USA? That’s of the same lolbertarian ilk.

    • Replies: @HA
    @Anonymous

    "...is not wearing helmets on a motorbikes and bicycles still a thing in the USA? That’s of the same lolbertarian ilk."

    The nanny-state is still working on that one -- only 19 states require helmets for everyone (as opposed to teenagers).

    Besides, without all those motorcycle drivers, where would the organ donations come from?

    , @dfordoom
    @Anonymous


    However, the successful actions in clamping down on this have taught a lot of people that it’s possible to eliminate if you try – and it wouldn’t have happened if they didn’t see it with their own eyes in their own country.
     
    Yes. I was very sceptical about elimination but clearly it has worked in a number of countries and now seems very achievable in Australia. I was also very sceptical about lockdowns but clearly they have worked.

    The key point is "if you try" - but then nothing is achievable unless you try.

    Who would have thought that New Zealand would be a model example of a Can Do Nation?

    Alt-righters aren't too happy about New Zealand's success. New Zealand has a prime minister who is not only a lefty but (horror of horrors) a woman. And yet she appears to know what she's doing and in a crisis she has demonstrated actual leadership. I didn't think much of her before this either, but credit where it's due. She has been much more competent than right-wing leaders such as Trump and Boris Johnson.

    Of course Australia has a right-wing prime minister (whom I also heartily disliked prior to this crisis) and he's been fairly competent as well.

    Replies: @anon

    , @utu
    @Anonymous

    Thanks. I insinuated, however, that our incompetence was amplified on purpose.


    Why we were not allowed to consider the option of the virus eradication? Is it because it would be a threat to globalism, it would foster resurgence of nationalistic right, it would bring national unity and solidarity, it would reestablish borders and national sovereignty? Or is it because a high impact of the epidemic was needed to turn the world and world public opinion against China, to turn China into the pariah nation according to the grand geopolitical scheme concocted by the cabal that Steve Bannon was and is occasionally channeling?
     
    And I think that the pivot against China was the chief reason. We are where we are where TPTB wanted us to be. The reason smaller countries like NZ could pursue the elimination policy is because they are small and peripheral or perhaps they lost the memo.

    Replies: @Anonymous, @Peter Shaw

  99. JMcG says:
    @Anonymous
    @Reg Cæsar

    This is confusing. Are you talking about begging forgiveness for the White Australia policy, or refusing to atone for it? Most Trump voters, and nearly all of us here at iSteve, think you folks were mad to discontinue it.

    No, he's talking about the herd immunity push from the lolbertarian MAGA crew.

    And vice-versa. We should have learned from your Gallipoli experience and not have gone anzacking around Europe ourselves in 1917. Or 1941. No good came of this.

    You did. You learned to combat load your troops so that the moment you hit the ground, you could fight. In US military schools the Australian experience in Gallipoli is the literal textbook example how not to assault a coastline. In Australia they had troops on one ship, arms on another, and so on and so forth. If you point this out to Australians.

    TBH I am not sure whether they learned this prior to 1917 or not, but they certainly use Australia as an example of how not to conduct such an operation.

    Replies: @JMcG

    Famously, the transports at Guadalcanal weren’t combat loaded, contributing much to the difficulties the 1st Marine Division and the USN faced there. My sense is that they knew it was important, but ran out of time to restow the holds.

    My great Uncle was at Gallipoli with the 29th Division. He survived that to be killed on the first day of the Somme.

  100. @JMcG
    @Stealth

    France recently moved to the HK 416. Basically an M16.

    Replies: @Stealth

    Have they actually deployed the new rifles yet? I thought they were still using the FAMAS.

    • Replies: @JMcG
    @Stealth

    I can’t find anything definitive. They should be mid-transition by now; I believe the contract is supposed to be fulfilled by ‘22.

  101. @J.Ross
    @Stealth

    --AUG is a good rifle.
    Surely. I'm a sucker for aesthetics, but what it does wierd it also does right, and Steyr is a top brand.
    --Just look at the FAMAS
    uhh ...
    --and the L85
    https://68.media.tumblr.com/tumblr_m5tzcpD6fr1r9zmvgo1_r2_500.gif

    Replies: @Stealth, @I. Racist

    –Just look at the FAMAS
    uhh …
    –and the L85

    I didn’t know until recently that the FAMAS is a very picky eater. Only steel case ammo with 55 grain bullets. It’s sort of iconic looking, so it makes me sad that they’re replacing it.

  102. @Reg Cæsar
    @Anonymous


    All the states and territories, except the two most populous, New South Wales and Victoria, closed their borders.
     
    In other words, Austronymous, half the country. The busiest borders. Those in the ACT, an enclave, were trapped.

    Currently the Aussie MAGAs and trolls are parroting the BS coming out of the US...
     
    This is confusing. Are you talking about begging forgiveness for the White Australia policy, or refusing to atone for it? Most Trump voters, and nearly all of us here at iSteve, think you folks were mad to discontinue it.

    Were you taken in by our MLKBS? At any rate, you ignored the question Anon[262] posed "Perhaps Oz’s good fortune has something to do with population demographics?"

    (Perhaps you're too busy punishing Polynesian ruggers for questioning blokes marrying blokes.)


    pushing for the internal borders to be rapidly reopened, but polling indicates broad support for the border closures

     

    Wouldn't that be easier to enforce with Soviet-style internal passports that need visas and stamps? Instead of US-style anarchism where you can cross state borders without permission. So the money isn't wasted, you can keep it around long after the pandemic, as the UK did with rationing after the war.

    Come to think of it, as did Australia:

    Rationing in Australia during World War II


    Sharing a language with Americans is becoming a curse.
     
    And vice-versa. We should have learned from your Gallipoli experience and not have gone anzacking around Europe ourselves in 1917. Or 1941. No good came of this.

    Replies: @Anonymous, @Anon

    Those in the ACT, an enclave, were trapped.

    The ACT is surrounded by NSW, which did not have border closures, so they were not trapped.

    • Replies: @Reg Cæsar
    @Anon


    The ACT is surrounded by NSW, which did not have border closures, so they were not trapped.
     
    Thanks. You're right-- that should have read "would have been trapped". But why were the more conservative states stricter about their borders? It's the opposite in America.

    Replies: @anon, @Anon

  103. @utu
    @Pincher Martin


    "Had we followed Greg’s advice, the U.S. economy would be open right now and our number of dead would be incredibly low. "
     
    In the MSM media there was no discourse about the strategy to eradicate the virus. From the very beginning only two options were offered: (1) no mitigation aka herd immunity now and (2) mitigation by curve flattening, aka herd immunity down the road. The only difference between no mitigation and curve flattening was the reduction of fatalities by preventing the medical system being overwhelmed.

    When the concept of the curve flattening was introduced the unmitigated curve and the flattened curve were presented in the slide illustration where it just happened so that the areas under both curves appeared to be equal. People got the message that the number of people dead would be the same except for those caused by the overwhelmed health system. A third curve with much smaller area was never presented. The question is why. Why the US and most EU countries did not go for the ERADICATION option?

    The eradication option was doable as Taiwan, Hong Kong, S. Korea, Japan and New Zealand, Slovakia and to lesser extent Czech Republic and Austria have demonstrated. It took 49 days for New Zealand.

    If lockdowns were imposed earlier and if they were stricter and if borders were shut down right away and if mask wearing was mandatory form the very beginning and if aggressive contact tracing and contact quarantining was carried out the epidemic could have been quashed in six weeks and we would be back to normal already in early May except that contact tracing and mask wearing would have to stay for longer and most importantly borders would have to be put in a permanent epidemic mode for as long as they would be flare up of epidemic in other more stupid countries. One would think that the right and the alt-right would see it as their dream option of reasserting the sovereignty and renegotiating the immigration policy.

    Why we were not allowed to consider the option of the virus eradication? Is it because it would be a threat to globalism, it would foster resurgence of nationalistic right, it would bring national unity and solidarity, it would reestablish borders and national sovereignty? Or is it because a high impact of the epidemic was needed to turn the world and world public opinion against China, to turn China into the pariah nation according to the grand geopolitical scheme concocted by the cabal that Steve Bannon was and is occasionally channeling?

    The alt-right and their libertarian substrate as usual missed the opportunity and eded up being cast in the role of useful idiots. The discourse was captured by flu hoaxers, herd immunity fetishists and all kind of cannibalistic gerontophobs who worked towards defeating the curve flattening program with the herd immunity meme and doing it with as much noise as possible so the the real alternative of the VIRUSE ERADICATION would be never heard of.

    Replies: @anon, @Pincher Martin, @Anonymous, @J.Ross

    Good point. The whole thing is made clear in the shill campaign visible from online influencers to mighty wurlizer airheads, where they flatly state that Trump killed however nany millions or Trump has given us a depressed economy, as though it was his idea and not the result of some major mitigating factor: meanwhile the imperious lockdowns have done more for the GOP than the sleepy elephant would do electorally for itself.

  104. HA says:
    @Anonymous
    @utu

    Bravo. Great post.

    Technically elimination is the term for removing all infections with state or country and eradication refers to a state of elimination for every single country in the world. It may be too late for the latter but a network of CV eliminated countries seems possible.

    One thing that Australia did (I think you either left them out or mistyped as Austria?) was close internal borders early in several states, which really put the power and the responsibility on the shoulders of the state premiers. The direction from the PM has been softer than the line taken by the individual states. The PM doesn't appear to really understand this, AFAICT, but he did close the external borders to his credit, not early enough, but earlier than he might have done. However, the successful actions in clamping down on this have taught a lot of people that it's possible to eliminate if you try - and it wouldn't have happened if they didn't see it with their own eyes in their own country.

    In any case, elimination definitely has become part of the national discourse in AU though I think too bold a vision for most politicians to publicly commit to.

    As for what you have said wrt the whys of different response from AU and US... I also regret not backing Steve up in the comments instead of taking a month or so hiatus here. You have opinion leaders like Coulter who read the comments here, if there was some good discussions of more of the "how" and the "why" for elimination, maybe that would have been pivotal in getting the right onside.

    That being said, there are some key differences between USA and AU in terms of how the CV response plays out. AU "lead" the world in work-health safety nannyism. I think you can have too much of a good thing but it worked in the AU favor. The ability of the states to impose travel restrictions also worked in AU (technically not particularly constitutional but aside from some bleating from lawyers, they just sucked it up). And the libertarian/lolbertarian difference - AU ceded guns in the Port Arthur massacre but the US would never give up their 2A AFAICT. Their love of perceived freedom worked against them wrt virus response. See "mouth diapers". WTF?

    Another factor is Trump. Possibly the largest factor. Trump is a genius in many regards but maybe he is too old and too "muh economy" to have adapted well to CV. Because of his relatively inept response (he did close external borders quite early though) and his ill-chosen public statements about CV passing real soon now... the right leapt to his defense. Reality is that other than the CV, he has been an effective president. Probably the best one since Eisenhower maybe, up until 2020. That bought a lot of blind loyalty. If you are going to be blindly loyal to someone they had better be competent in all situations.

    Anyway, the inept US response is kind of bad, but not all bad potentially. I think it may be useful to have some push back against China unless there is a shooting war. It's undeniable that China did allow international travel while at the same time halting internal travel within their country. It was effectively a deliberate policy of infecting the world, and whatever the neocons wanted, this was 100% within Chinese control and they went to the extent of deliberately chiding other countries for imposing their own China travel bans. China is also acting obnoxiously with their island-building projects, and their takeover of other countries through immigration and asset purchase.

    It seems as though the likes of Soros have only just discovered that the enhanced economy have not really changed the Chinese. As Tarrant said, he thinks China has the best government as they are an ethnostate and do things best for the Han race. (I wish there was a large, white country with nukes that behaved this way in a non-expansionist manner.) This is obviously antithetical to Jewish power. However, I don't think the island building will work out for them, any more than Hitler's push East worked out for him, or Japan's empire building. While it is unlikely nukes will be used, China's economy is vulnerable to trade restriction.

    --

    BTW HA, is not wearing helmets on a motorbikes and bicycles still a thing in the USA? That's of the same lolbertarian ilk.

    Replies: @HA, @dfordoom, @utu

    “…is not wearing helmets on a motorbikes and bicycles still a thing in the USA? That’s of the same lolbertarian ilk.”

    The nanny-state is still working on that one — only 19 states require helmets for everyone (as opposed to teenagers).

    Besides, without all those motorcycle drivers, where would the organ donations come from?

  105. @utu
    @Pincher Martin

    "I haven’t seen any evidence that they are successful today for ideological reasons that push back against globalization." - Probably you are correct but those countries did what would any normal person do. Perhaps they did not get the memo to mishandle the epidemic because they are under the radar of the Eye of Sauron as being provincial and peripheral.

    "China’s oversized role in the world today is *because* of globalization." - Again this is correct but there is a cabal that wants to change it and having the world being angry with China is what they want and this is being accomplished by not handling the epidemic well to make it worse than it had to be: Make China Pay for It! Is it possible that the memo was about trapping us in the idiot's limbo between herd immunity meme and curve flattening meme while the only right approach was outside this false alternative.

    Replies: @Pincher Martin

    It’s natural that China and the United States would be antagonists. One is a rising power and the other is a status quo or declining power. One might hope that the inevitable clash will be mild in comparison to previous great power conflicts and free of over-the-top ideological claims, but I wouldn’t bet on it.

    The anomaly was that the United States and China would get along so well over the last thirty years while sharing so little in common. There’s no precedent for it. But the Sino-American relationship since Tiananmen and the end of the Cold War was driven by business interests who wanted to see it put on an even keel. The GWOT and (bizarrely) Russia also kept US strategists busy with other matters as China grew more powerful.

    Trump is really the first president since Eisenhower to challenge Chinese interests in a direct way. Trump does it in his own half-focused and bizarre manner, but he recognizes a fundamental reality about the relationship that should’ve been recognized by U.S. policymakers by 2000 at the latest. China is not a friend or a partner.

    Having said that I don’t blame China for the failed U.S. response to COVID-19. That’s all on America. China did lie, did cover up, and did use it influence to bully others into compliance about its initial handling of the virus – and so what. We in the U.S. still had plenty of time to adopt measures that would’ve prevented this disaster from happening. That we failed to do so is on us, not China.

    • Replies: @anon
    @Pincher Martin


    China did lie, did cover up, and did use it influence to bully others into compliance about its initial handling of the virus
     
    Based on what evidence? This is new to them also and their politics and culture has secrecy/face saving as features. Taiwan, South Korea, Japan, Vietnam, Thai, Malaysia, Singapore all did OK just by reading Chinese social media. We spend unknown tens of billions of dollars on NSA.

    Doors being welded shut https://www.cbc.ca/player/play/1703503427818

    was being shown here in U.S. media in early February. Trump said the case count will be zero on February 29th.

    Replies: @dfordoom, @Pincher Martin

  106. @HA
    @Pincher Martin

    "When Chester Bowles was proved prescient about the Bay of Pigs, he was not promoted by John F. Kennedy. He was demoted and shunned and mocked."

    Cochran has spoken about this as well. To paraphrase what he said, the ones who were wrong about Iraq went on to have illustrious careers in Washington. The ones who were right, if they were lucky, eventually found a spot at Unz.com.

    And you're right about the fact that if everyone -- especially the apparatchiks in Wuhan -- had actually taken this seriously from the beginning as opposed to just letting it rip and pretending it was just the flu, we'd be far better off right now. But it's a work in progress. It took decades for the majority to recognize that "smoking rights advocates" were just a bunch of tobacco-lobby useful idiots (actually, just plain idiots), and pathetic little dweebs convinced that nicotine addition was a necessary prop in their He-man bad-boy schtick that they used to impress women (and after all, lung cancer mostly kills those who are old and decrepit anyway, just like a certain virus, and who cares about people like that?).

    Now, the same little pansies who used to cry about the nanny-state taking away their cigarettes are instead throwing tantrums because the nanny-state shut down their gym for two months. Something similar can be said of seat belt avoidance and drunk driving -- that used to be part of the bad boy schtick, too, but now, not so much. I call that progress.

    Replies: @Pincher Martin

    I’m amused by the coronavirus tough guys who don’t want to wear masks because they want everyone to know they aren’t afraid of a little virus. Especially the ones who are over fifty and on the edge of, if not plopped right over, obesity.

    • Replies: @dfordoom
    @Pincher Martin


    I’m amused by the coronavirus tough guys who don’t want to wear masks because they want everyone to know they aren’t afraid of a little virus.
     
    They won't wear masks but they're stockpiling guns. You don't need masks if you have guns. Right-wingers are endlessly amusing.

    Replies: @Pincher Martin

  107. HA says:

    “I’m amused by the coronavirus tough guys who don’t want to wear masks because they want everyone to know they aren’t afraid of a little virus.”

    Yes, and I’m guessing that kind of verbal peacocking — be it telling us how no real man wears a mask or else, how outraged they are that they and their bros (who are equally unconcerned with catching just-the-flu) have suffered an interruption to their gym sessions — will indeed help them get laid by some women out there (or by some of those bros, if that’s what they’re really after). But then, according to the “dark triad” research, so will being a narcissist and a psychopath, and they’ve clearly got that going for them already. Presumably every little bit helps if one is trying too hard to compensate.

    • Replies: @Kratoklastes
    @HA

    Projection. It would be amusing if it wasn't so beta.

    Replies: @HA

  108. anon[225] • Disclaimer says:
    @Pincher Martin
    @utu

    It's natural that China and the United States would be antagonists. One is a rising power and the other is a status quo or declining power. One might hope that the inevitable clash will be mild in comparison to previous great power conflicts and free of over-the-top ideological claims, but I wouldn't bet on it.

    The anomaly was that the United States and China would get along so well over the last thirty years while sharing so little in common. There's no precedent for it. But the Sino-American relationship since Tiananmen and the end of the Cold War was driven by business interests who wanted to see it put on an even keel. The GWOT and (bizarrely) Russia also kept US strategists busy with other matters as China grew more powerful.

    Trump is really the first president since Eisenhower to challenge Chinese interests in a direct way. Trump does it in his own half-focused and bizarre manner, but he recognizes a fundamental reality about the relationship that should've been recognized by U.S. policymakers by 2000 at the latest. China is not a friend or a partner.

    Having said that I don't blame China for the failed U.S. response to COVID-19. That's all on America. China did lie, did cover up, and did use it influence to bully others into compliance about its initial handling of the virus - and so what. We in the U.S. still had plenty of time to adopt measures that would've prevented this disaster from happening. That we failed to do so is on us, not China.

    Replies: @anon

    China did lie, did cover up, and did use it influence to bully others into compliance about its initial handling of the virus

    Based on what evidence? This is new to them also and their politics and culture has secrecy/face saving as features. Taiwan, South Korea, Japan, Vietnam, Thai, Malaysia, Singapore all did OK just by reading Chinese social media. We spend unknown tens of billions of dollars on NSA.

    Doors being welded shut https://www.cbc.ca/player/play/1703503427818

    was being shown here in U.S. media in early February. Trump said the case count will be zero on February 29th.

    • Replies: @dfordoom
    @anon



    China did lie, did cover up, and did use it influence to bully others into compliance about its initial handling of the virus
     
    Based on what evidence?
     
    Who needs evidence? They're evil commies and that's what evil commies do. Thankfully the US has never lied, covered up or used its influence to bully others into compliance.

    And the Chinese are foreigners as well. All foreigners are evil.
    , @Pincher Martin
    @anon


    Taiwan, South Korea, Japan, Vietnam, Thai, Malaysia, Singapore all did OK just by reading Chinese social media. We spend unknown tens of billions of dollars on NSA.
     
    Those countries did OK because 1) they don't trust the Chinese and 2) most of them had experience with SARS-1.

    Trump said the case count will be zero on February 29th.
     
    Trump's an idiot. I've already said that American mistakes were not dependent on Chinese mistakes.
  109. @sb
    I find it interesting that no one so far has suggested that maybe one reason for Australia's figures ( 4 covid deaths per million compared to the US's 293 deaths per million ) could be the difference between the two nations
    I guess even the good American folk here who have many (many) issues with their country cannot bring themselves to say that compared to other places the US is really shithouse

    Replies: @Almost Missouri, @Anonymous, @Anonymous, @Kratoklastes

    The key difference is that there is never a day on which any State capital in Australia has snow enough to make a snowman. A light dusting in the nearby hills is newsworthy.

    New York (the absolute US epicentre) has poor sanitation, really cold temperatures, and an extremely gross mass transit system. And probably CHUDS.

    Results from Australian aged care homes seem a little less “death-camp”-ish, too. That industry was the subject of a pretty thorough investigation about 10 years ago, and was forced to lift its game.

    US-wide, 42% of all covid19 deaths were people in aged-care facilities; in Europe it’s more than half of all covid19 deaths. In Australia it’s about a third (in NSW, about a third of their deaths originated in just 2 aged care homes).

  110. @HA
    "I’m amused by the coronavirus tough guys who don’t want to wear masks because they want everyone to know they aren’t afraid of a little virus."

    Yes, and I'm guessing that kind of verbal peacocking -- be it telling us how no real man wears a mask or else, how outraged they are that they and their bros (who are equally unconcerned with catching just-the-flu) have suffered an interruption to their gym sessions -- will indeed help them get laid by some women out there (or by some of those bros, if that's what they're really after). But then, according to the "dark triad" research, so will being a narcissist and a psychopath, and they've clearly got that going for them already. Presumably every little bit helps if one is trying too hard to compensate.

    Replies: @Kratoklastes

    Projection. It would be amusing if it wasn’t so beta.

    • Replies: @HA
    @Kratoklastes

    "Projection. It would be amusing if it wasn’t so beta."

    And with that, we have one of the more hysterical mask ignorers, chiming in to let me know (in between the lines) that my post hit the bull's eye and got down deep. Thanks! Beta signals notwithstanding, that was indeed amusing.

  111. @Vox Australis
    As an Australian, I think my country was lucky: the bushfires that ravaged the country from November last year to this February deterred many tourists from coming here. Also, Australia has at least several hundred thousand Chinese students at its universities (they come here because they apply for permanent residence at the conclusion of their course), most of them had gone home for a vacation, intending to return for the opening of the academic year at the end of February. The government closed the borders early in February, so the Chinese students had to remain at home.

    Australia has had just over 100 deaths from the corona virus. A large proportion of the deaths, and the infected, were from cruise ships.

    Replies: @Momus

    Not luck

    Pre-emptively good management with an educated and sensible population, mate.

  112. @Anon
    @Reg Cæsar


    Those in the ACT, an enclave, were trapped.
     
    The ACT is surrounded by NSW, which did not have border closures, so they were not trapped.

    Replies: @Reg Cæsar

    The ACT is surrounded by NSW, which did not have border closures, so they were not trapped.

    Thanks. You’re right– that should have read “would have been trapped”. But why were the more conservative states stricter about their borders? It’s the opposite in America.

    • Replies: @anon
    @Reg Cæsar

    There are no ''more conservative'' States in Australia.
    There's the Labor States, equivalent to Democratic Socialists, and the Liberal States, equivalent to Democrats.
    Present Australian Liberal Treasurer https://www.gettyimages.com.au/photos/josh-frydenberg?family=editorial&phrase=josh%20frydenberg&sort=mostpopular referred to Trump as ''A dropkick'' during the 2016 campaign.
    Former long term Liberal Prime Minister https://www.gettyimages.com.au/photos/john-howard?family=editorial&phrase=john%20howard&sort=mostpopular said
    ''The prospect of a Trump Presidency fills me with terror.''

    Replies: @Reg Cæsar

    , @Anon
    @Reg Cæsar

    Political temperament of the states aside (NSW isn’t particularly left-leaning), the two most populous states were always going to be net exporters of cases, so they didn’t have much incentive to close their borders.

  113. @Stealth
    @JMcG

    Have they actually deployed the new rifles yet? I thought they were still using the FAMAS.

    Replies: @JMcG

    I can’t find anything definitive. They should be mid-transition by now; I believe the contract is supposed to be fulfilled by ‘22.

  114. HA says:
    @Kratoklastes
    @HA

    Projection. It would be amusing if it wasn't so beta.

    Replies: @HA

    “Projection. It would be amusing if it wasn’t so beta.”

    And with that, we have one of the more hysterical mask ignorers, chiming in to let me know (in between the lines) that my post hit the bull’s eye and got down deep. Thanks! Beta signals notwithstanding, that was indeed amusing.

  115. @Anonymous
    @utu

    Bravo. Great post.

    Technically elimination is the term for removing all infections with state or country and eradication refers to a state of elimination for every single country in the world. It may be too late for the latter but a network of CV eliminated countries seems possible.

    One thing that Australia did (I think you either left them out or mistyped as Austria?) was close internal borders early in several states, which really put the power and the responsibility on the shoulders of the state premiers. The direction from the PM has been softer than the line taken by the individual states. The PM doesn't appear to really understand this, AFAICT, but he did close the external borders to his credit, not early enough, but earlier than he might have done. However, the successful actions in clamping down on this have taught a lot of people that it's possible to eliminate if you try - and it wouldn't have happened if they didn't see it with their own eyes in their own country.

    In any case, elimination definitely has become part of the national discourse in AU though I think too bold a vision for most politicians to publicly commit to.

    As for what you have said wrt the whys of different response from AU and US... I also regret not backing Steve up in the comments instead of taking a month or so hiatus here. You have opinion leaders like Coulter who read the comments here, if there was some good discussions of more of the "how" and the "why" for elimination, maybe that would have been pivotal in getting the right onside.

    That being said, there are some key differences between USA and AU in terms of how the CV response plays out. AU "lead" the world in work-health safety nannyism. I think you can have too much of a good thing but it worked in the AU favor. The ability of the states to impose travel restrictions also worked in AU (technically not particularly constitutional but aside from some bleating from lawyers, they just sucked it up). And the libertarian/lolbertarian difference - AU ceded guns in the Port Arthur massacre but the US would never give up their 2A AFAICT. Their love of perceived freedom worked against them wrt virus response. See "mouth diapers". WTF?

    Another factor is Trump. Possibly the largest factor. Trump is a genius in many regards but maybe he is too old and too "muh economy" to have adapted well to CV. Because of his relatively inept response (he did close external borders quite early though) and his ill-chosen public statements about CV passing real soon now... the right leapt to his defense. Reality is that other than the CV, he has been an effective president. Probably the best one since Eisenhower maybe, up until 2020. That bought a lot of blind loyalty. If you are going to be blindly loyal to someone they had better be competent in all situations.

    Anyway, the inept US response is kind of bad, but not all bad potentially. I think it may be useful to have some push back against China unless there is a shooting war. It's undeniable that China did allow international travel while at the same time halting internal travel within their country. It was effectively a deliberate policy of infecting the world, and whatever the neocons wanted, this was 100% within Chinese control and they went to the extent of deliberately chiding other countries for imposing their own China travel bans. China is also acting obnoxiously with their island-building projects, and their takeover of other countries through immigration and asset purchase.

    It seems as though the likes of Soros have only just discovered that the enhanced economy have not really changed the Chinese. As Tarrant said, he thinks China has the best government as they are an ethnostate and do things best for the Han race. (I wish there was a large, white country with nukes that behaved this way in a non-expansionist manner.) This is obviously antithetical to Jewish power. However, I don't think the island building will work out for them, any more than Hitler's push East worked out for him, or Japan's empire building. While it is unlikely nukes will be used, China's economy is vulnerable to trade restriction.

    --

    BTW HA, is not wearing helmets on a motorbikes and bicycles still a thing in the USA? That's of the same lolbertarian ilk.

    Replies: @HA, @dfordoom, @utu

    However, the successful actions in clamping down on this have taught a lot of people that it’s possible to eliminate if you try – and it wouldn’t have happened if they didn’t see it with their own eyes in their own country.

    Yes. I was very sceptical about elimination but clearly it has worked in a number of countries and now seems very achievable in Australia. I was also very sceptical about lockdowns but clearly they have worked.

    The key point is “if you try” – but then nothing is achievable unless you try.

    Who would have thought that New Zealand would be a model example of a Can Do Nation?

    Alt-righters aren’t too happy about New Zealand’s success. New Zealand has a prime minister who is not only a lefty but (horror of horrors) a woman. And yet she appears to know what she’s doing and in a crisis she has demonstrated actual leadership. I didn’t think much of her before this either, but credit where it’s due. She has been much more competent than right-wing leaders such as Trump and Boris Johnson.

    Of course Australia has a right-wing prime minister (whom I also heartily disliked prior to this crisis) and he’s been fairly competent as well.

    • Replies: @anon
    @dfordoom

    Alt-righters aren’t too happy about New Zealand’s success.

    Please name them so we can all join you in laughing at them. Provide links to comments or websites or articles. I'm sure you have evidence. Share it with us.

  116. @Pincher Martin
    @HA

    I'm amused by the coronavirus tough guys who don't want to wear masks because they want everyone to know they aren't afraid of a little virus. Especially the ones who are over fifty and on the edge of, if not plopped right over, obesity.

    Replies: @dfordoom

    I’m amused by the coronavirus tough guys who don’t want to wear masks because they want everyone to know they aren’t afraid of a little virus.

    They won’t wear masks but they’re stockpiling guns. You don’t need masks if you have guns. Right-wingers are endlessly amusing.

    • Replies: @Pincher Martin
    @dfordoom

    I'm a right winger and I fully support the public measures to end this threat. If anything, I feel the authorities have been too slow in implementing the measures.

    But, yes, most right wingers have been disappointing in their response to this virus.

  117. @anon
    @Pincher Martin


    China did lie, did cover up, and did use it influence to bully others into compliance about its initial handling of the virus
     
    Based on what evidence? This is new to them also and their politics and culture has secrecy/face saving as features. Taiwan, South Korea, Japan, Vietnam, Thai, Malaysia, Singapore all did OK just by reading Chinese social media. We spend unknown tens of billions of dollars on NSA.

    Doors being welded shut https://www.cbc.ca/player/play/1703503427818

    was being shown here in U.S. media in early February. Trump said the case count will be zero on February 29th.

    Replies: @dfordoom, @Pincher Martin

    China did lie, did cover up, and did use it influence to bully others into compliance about its initial handling of the virus

    Based on what evidence?

    Who needs evidence? They’re evil commies and that’s what evil commies do. Thankfully the US has never lied, covered up or used its influence to bully others into compliance.

    And the Chinese are foreigners as well. All foreigners are evil.

  118. @anon
    @Pincher Martin


    China did lie, did cover up, and did use it influence to bully others into compliance about its initial handling of the virus
     
    Based on what evidence? This is new to them also and their politics and culture has secrecy/face saving as features. Taiwan, South Korea, Japan, Vietnam, Thai, Malaysia, Singapore all did OK just by reading Chinese social media. We spend unknown tens of billions of dollars on NSA.

    Doors being welded shut https://www.cbc.ca/player/play/1703503427818

    was being shown here in U.S. media in early February. Trump said the case count will be zero on February 29th.

    Replies: @dfordoom, @Pincher Martin

    Taiwan, South Korea, Japan, Vietnam, Thai, Malaysia, Singapore all did OK just by reading Chinese social media. We spend unknown tens of billions of dollars on NSA.

    Those countries did OK because 1) they don’t trust the Chinese and 2) most of them had experience with SARS-1.

    Trump said the case count will be zero on February 29th.

    Trump’s an idiot. I’ve already said that American mistakes were not dependent on Chinese mistakes.

  119. anon[229] • Disclaimer says:
    @Reg Cæsar
    @Anon


    The ACT is surrounded by NSW, which did not have border closures, so they were not trapped.
     
    Thanks. You're right-- that should have read "would have been trapped". But why were the more conservative states stricter about their borders? It's the opposite in America.

    Replies: @anon, @Anon

    There are no ”more conservative” States in Australia.
    There’s the Labor States, equivalent to Democratic Socialists, and the Liberal States, equivalent to Democrats.
    Present Australian Liberal Treasurer https://www.gettyimages.com.au/photos/josh-frydenberg?family=editorial&phrase=josh%20frydenberg&sort=mostpopular referred to Trump as ”A dropkick” during the 2016 campaign.
    Former long term Liberal Prime Minister https://www.gettyimages.com.au/photos/john-howard?family=editorial&phrase=john%20howard&sort=mostpopular said
    ”The prospect of a Trump Presidency fills me with terror.”

    • Replies: @Reg Cæsar
    @anon

    What happened to Pauline Hanson, and that Norwegian Danish guy who ran Queensland for years?

    Replies: @anon

  120. @Diversity Heretic
    @J.Ross

    Australia also adapted the British Sten machine pistol into an Austen.

    Replies: @animalogic

    “Australia also adapted the British Sten machine pistol into an Austen.”
    Sorry don’t get it. Is “Austen” some kind of play on Australia + “sten” ?
    Are you referring to the Owen submachine gun? A gun capable of functioning with dirt & mud as opposed to a sten that would instantly jam (or potentially snap a finger if working). The Owen gun entirely designed & built in Australia. The only thing a Sten has to do with an Owen is what NOT to do. Here endeth the rant.

    • Replies: @Joe Stalin
    @animalogic

    https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=qf6XALbTnik
    https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=ceFLRGiWlW4
    https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=TGNF9mVN0fg

    , @Diversity Heretic
    @animalogic

    The Owen machine carbine was a much better, and completely indigenous, design than the Austen, which had most of the defects of the Sten. The Sten was, however, compact and incredibly cheap to manufacture, making it useful for equipping partisan-type units that were likely to suffer high losses in any event. No small arms of any value will fall into enemy hands, although, come to think of it, the Germans at least experimented with their own version of the Sten, so it must have been at least irritating to be on the receiving end of it.

    The point of my comment was that Australia has the tendency to add the prefix "Aus" to a design to designate that it's an Australian version (Austeyr, Austen).

  121. @Patagonia Man
    Australia, in the southern hemisphere has been in their summer, i.e. warmer temperatures and not flu season - hence the lower infection rates.

    Replies: @DanHessinMD, @animalogic

    Hence those blizzards in Florida….

    • Agree: Patagonia Man
  122. @donut
    From an old post : "However, as of the year 2000, 183,000 U.S. veterans of the Gulf War, more than a quarter of the U.S. troops who participated in War, have been declared permanently disabled by the Department of Veterans Affairs. About 30% of the 700,000 men and women who served in U.S. forces during the Gulf War still suffer an array of serious symptoms whose causes are not fully understood."

    Thank you for your service .

    Replies: @North Carolina Resident

    Exactly what defines being permanently disabled?
    I know a man who injured his back in an off-base car accident, driving his own car. He remained in the Army a few more years to fulfill his commitment.
    He receives $4k monthly because of the back injury. He’s not disabled at all.

  123. @J.Ross
    @Stealth

    --AUG is a good rifle.
    Surely. I'm a sucker for aesthetics, but what it does wierd it also does right, and Steyr is a top brand.
    --Just look at the FAMAS
    uhh ...
    --and the L85
    https://68.media.tumblr.com/tumblr_m5tzcpD6fr1r9zmvgo1_r2_500.gif

    Replies: @Stealth, @I. Racist

    In a 50 round qualification shoot, I had two failures. In addition to the usual failures to feed, stovepipes and light primer strikes, it would occasionally fail to extract a spent casing. Accepted practice in this event was to hand the rifle to an NCO who would smash the charging handle against a fixed object with all of his might (other ranks not being trusted to perform such delicate operation). This didn’t inspire much confidence when deploying with it.

    There’s a reason neither the Aussie or kiwi SAS used the AUG in anger: they had a choice.

    • Replies: @Joe Stalin
    @I. Racist

    https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=amwDejsJAro
    https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=HbG6fHtz9D0
    https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=SXMh9t7MBUk
    https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=_9NF99PG_M0

    , @J.Ross
    @I. Racist

    There are times when I want to hear about some army somewhere contracting new production 7.62 NATO Savage 99's with detachable box mags.

  124. NZ has also done really well.

    21 dead, one in hospital, twenty-seven active cases. 1400 recovered.

    I hate giving Jacinda credit for anything, but the local small business owners were helped through the lock down and received their money immediately. So long as the virus does not flare up again over winter, we may even be free of it.

    Problem is, we cannot have any dealings with the outside world and remain unaffected.

    I am hoping Australia can go virus free, too. That would be a perfect excuse to turn ourselves into a hermit kingdom. We are sitting on mountains of natural resources and many people here are self-reliant and inventive – or at least they are here in the wop-wops.

    It would be good for us to make our own stuff again.

  125. @Reg Cæsar
    @Anon


    The ACT is surrounded by NSW, which did not have border closures, so they were not trapped.
     
    Thanks. You're right-- that should have read "would have been trapped". But why were the more conservative states stricter about their borders? It's the opposite in America.

    Replies: @anon, @Anon

    Political temperament of the states aside (NSW isn’t particularly left-leaning), the two most populous states were always going to be net exporters of cases, so they didn’t have much incentive to close their borders.

  126. @Dave from Oz
    @Almost Missouri


    • Also: opposite seasonalties. Only one has universal sunshine, open space and fresh air.
     
    We now are just coming in to winter. If it was about "opposite seasonalities", we would be at the disadvantage.

    • Only one has a basically patriotic and competent government.
     
    100%. In particular, the public service. The USA despises anything "public", at best it's a necessary evil. Australia is different.

    Replies: @Amerimutt Golems, @Almost Missouri, @Peterike

    “ The USA despises anything “public”, at best it’s a necessary evil. ”

    That’s one of those total bullshit things that foreigners always seem to believe about the U.S. You’re talking about six Conservative Inc geriatrics that still bleat on about that. However the Left, firmly in control of American culture, uses that myth to beat Republicans, so foreigners think it’s true. It’s not true in the least.

  127. @animalogic
    @Diversity Heretic

    "Australia also adapted the British Sten machine pistol into an Austen."
    Sorry don't get it. Is "Austen" some kind of play on Australia + "sten" ?
    Are you referring to the Owen submachine gun? A gun capable of functioning with dirt & mud as opposed to a sten that would instantly jam (or potentially snap a finger if working). The Owen gun entirely designed & built in Australia. The only thing a Sten has to do with an Owen is what NOT to do. Here endeth the rant.

    Replies: @Joe Stalin, @Diversity Heretic

  128. @I. Racist
    @J.Ross

    In a 50 round qualification shoot, I had two failures. In addition to the usual failures to feed, stovepipes and light primer strikes, it would occasionally fail to extract a spent casing. Accepted practice in this event was to hand the rifle to an NCO who would smash the charging handle against a fixed object with all of his might (other ranks not being trusted to perform such delicate operation). This didn't inspire much confidence when deploying with it.

    There's a reason neither the Aussie or kiwi SAS used the AUG in anger: they had a choice.

    Replies: @Joe Stalin, @J.Ross

  129. @anon
    @Reg Cæsar

    There are no ''more conservative'' States in Australia.
    There's the Labor States, equivalent to Democratic Socialists, and the Liberal States, equivalent to Democrats.
    Present Australian Liberal Treasurer https://www.gettyimages.com.au/photos/josh-frydenberg?family=editorial&phrase=josh%20frydenberg&sort=mostpopular referred to Trump as ''A dropkick'' during the 2016 campaign.
    Former long term Liberal Prime Minister https://www.gettyimages.com.au/photos/john-howard?family=editorial&phrase=john%20howard&sort=mostpopular said
    ''The prospect of a Trump Presidency fills me with terror.''

    Replies: @Reg Cæsar

    What happened to Pauline Hanson, and that Norwegian Danish guy who ran Queensland for years?

    • Replies: @anon
    @Reg Cæsar

    The Liberal Party funds Pauline Hanson to take the steam out of debates on Immigration.
    The general idea is that she discredits anti immigrationists by her stupidity.
    It's been quite successful.
    She's now a Senator.
    Johannes Hendrikus Bjelke-Petersen [1911-2005] was a Queensland pol who was a puppet for powerful forces. Once his usefulness ended, they dumped him.
    Also reputed to have been interned at Grovely in 1943 due to his being a security threat. In other words, they had plenty on him to keep him in line.

  130. @animalogic
    @Diversity Heretic

    "Australia also adapted the British Sten machine pistol into an Austen."
    Sorry don't get it. Is "Austen" some kind of play on Australia + "sten" ?
    Are you referring to the Owen submachine gun? A gun capable of functioning with dirt & mud as opposed to a sten that would instantly jam (or potentially snap a finger if working). The Owen gun entirely designed & built in Australia. The only thing a Sten has to do with an Owen is what NOT to do. Here endeth the rant.

    Replies: @Joe Stalin, @Diversity Heretic

    The Owen machine carbine was a much better, and completely indigenous, design than the Austen, which had most of the defects of the Sten. The Sten was, however, compact and incredibly cheap to manufacture, making it useful for equipping partisan-type units that were likely to suffer high losses in any event. No small arms of any value will fall into enemy hands, although, come to think of it, the Germans at least experimented with their own version of the Sten, so it must have been at least irritating to be on the receiving end of it.

    The point of my comment was that Australia has the tendency to add the prefix “Aus” to a design to designate that it’s an Australian version (Austeyr, Austen).

  131. @dfordoom
    @Pincher Martin


    I’m amused by the coronavirus tough guys who don’t want to wear masks because they want everyone to know they aren’t afraid of a little virus.
     
    They won't wear masks but they're stockpiling guns. You don't need masks if you have guns. Right-wingers are endlessly amusing.

    Replies: @Pincher Martin

    I’m a right winger and I fully support the public measures to end this threat. If anything, I feel the authorities have been too slow in implementing the measures.

    But, yes, most right wingers have been disappointing in their response to this virus.

  132. @Pincher Martin
    @Anonymous

    Greg Cochran has been right from the beginning.

    Had we followed Greg's advice, the U.S. economy would be open right now and our number of dead would be incredibly low. Americans would be in the position where they could go out in public without masks, visit their favorite restaurants, patronize bars and movie theaters, and perhaps even attend sporting events and concerts.

    Had we followed the advice of people like you, the U.S. would have half a million dead at the very minimum and its economy would be in a complete shutdown.

    When Chester Bowles was proved prescient about the Bay of Pigs, he was not promoted by John F. Kennedy. He was demoted and shunned and mocked. Why? Because dumb and arrogant people hate to be reminded of their mistakes. They prefer hanging out with other wrong-minded people. Bowles had to be removed not because he was wrong about the Bay of Pigs but because he was right.

    Greg Cochran is in a similar position with you morons. Forget all the crap about the exact IFR, excess death rates, herd immunity, and the like. Just remember this: If we had followed Greg's advice from the beginning, we would be in a far better place in every regard than we are today.

    And you guys hate him for that fact.

    Replies: @utu, @HA, @Peter Shaw

    Cochran is an arrogant idiot whose strategy would end up costing lives.

    The USA is a free country with basically open borders so a lockdown is unlikely to work.

    And if a proper lockdown was achieved what would it amount to? Basically the creation of a police state, with a cratered economy for an indefinite period.

    One only needs to look at the world war that followed the 1930s depression to understand that shutting down society would (and to some extent will) kill far more than the small (relative)
    number of people who will die with coronavirus.

    Thankfully reality is gradually proving that idiot wrong.

    • Replies: @Pincher Martin
    @Peter Shaw


    Cochran is an arrogant idiot whose strategy would end up costing lives.
     
    You have it exactly the opposite. We would be out of this mess already if Cochran's advice had been promptly followed. The economy would already be bouncing back and restrictions would already be significantly reduced.

    On. the other hand, if we follow your advice, we'll be lucky to ever get of this mess.


    The USA is a free country with basically open borders so a lockdown is unlikely to work.
     
    Several free countries with what were open borders have already successfully implemented a lockdown strategy. There's no reason to believe that such a strategy was "unlikely" to work in the U.S. Borders have already been closed to nonessential traffic; most overseas flights have been cancelled; and much of what you believe was "unlikely" to happen has already happened - just too late to be of much good in eliminating the virus.

    And if a proper lockdown was achieved what would it amount to? Basically the creation of a police state, with a cratered economy for an indefinite period.
     
    How can you a police state be spawned in two months?

    The vast majority of Americans will voluntarily follow government and business requirements for public interaction if they think it helps their fellow Americans. The problem was that the government was slow to implement them. It was more reactive than proactive.

    I know a few yahoos exist who believe, to cite one example, that being forced to wear a mask abridges their constitutional freedoms, but well over 90% are content to comply.

    No police state is necessary with that kind of citizenry.


    One only needs to look at the world war that followed the 1930s depression to understand that shutting down society would (and to some extent will) kill far more than the small (relative) number of people who will die with coronavirus.
     
    That's complete BS. Life expectancy for Americans in 1940 was greater than it was in 1930. So ten years of depression actually led to small improvements in life expectancy. Poverty doesn't kill people nearly as effectively as does a disease with a 1% IFR.

    Thankfully reality is gradually proving that idiot wrong.
     
    The last three months have proven Cochran largely right. More importantly, if we had followed his advice, we would better off today than we are now. Better off economically. And obviously better off in our public health.

    Replies: @Reg Cæsar, @Peter Shaw

    , @Pincher Martin
    @Peter Shaw

    I'm frankly sick and tired of this lockdown. But I don't blame Cochran for it; I blame people like you.

    The best strategy for a successful lockdown was to hit the virus hard from the beginning and to do so as broadly as possible. Instead, we gradually ratcheted it up in what was mostly a local manner that eventually helped to slow the spread of the virus and reduce the number of cases, but didn't come close to eliminating it.

    So once we relax, we will still have many more dead, more local lockdowns, and a continuing stagnant economy for the foreseeable future.

    Thanks, buddy. I guess America owes you its gratitude.

    But remember, we would already be out of this mess if we had followed Cochran's advice.

    Replies: @UK

  133. anon[667] • Disclaimer says:
    @Reg Cæsar
    @anon

    What happened to Pauline Hanson, and that Norwegian Danish guy who ran Queensland for years?

    Replies: @anon

    The Liberal Party funds Pauline Hanson to take the steam out of debates on Immigration.
    The general idea is that she discredits anti immigrationists by her stupidity.
    It’s been quite successful.
    She’s now a Senator.
    Johannes Hendrikus Bjelke-Petersen [1911-2005] was a Queensland pol who was a puppet for powerful forces. Once his usefulness ended, they dumped him.
    Also reputed to have been interned at Grovely in 1943 due to his being a security threat. In other words, they had plenty on him to keep him in line.

  134. @Peter Shaw
    @Pincher Martin

    Cochran is an arrogant idiot whose strategy would end up costing lives.

    The USA is a free country with basically open borders so a lockdown is unlikely to work.

    And if a proper lockdown was achieved what would it amount to? Basically the creation of a police state, with a cratered economy for an indefinite period.

    One only needs to look at the world war that followed the 1930s depression to understand that shutting down society would (and to some extent will) kill far more than the small (relative)
    number of people who will die with coronavirus.

    Thankfully reality is gradually proving that idiot wrong.

    Replies: @Pincher Martin, @Pincher Martin

    Cochran is an arrogant idiot whose strategy would end up costing lives.

    You have it exactly the opposite. We would be out of this mess already if Cochran’s advice had been promptly followed. The economy would already be bouncing back and restrictions would already be significantly reduced.

    On. the other hand, if we follow your advice, we’ll be lucky to ever get of this mess.

    The USA is a free country with basically open borders so a lockdown is unlikely to work.

    Several free countries with what were open borders have already successfully implemented a lockdown strategy. There’s no reason to believe that such a strategy was “unlikely” to work in the U.S. Borders have already been closed to nonessential traffic; most overseas flights have been cancelled; and much of what you believe was “unlikely” to happen has already happened – just too late to be of much good in eliminating the virus.

    And if a proper lockdown was achieved what would it amount to? Basically the creation of a police state, with a cratered economy for an indefinite period.

    How can you a police state be spawned in two months?

    The vast majority of Americans will voluntarily follow government and business requirements for public interaction if they think it helps their fellow Americans. The problem was that the government was slow to implement them. It was more reactive than proactive.

    I know a few yahoos exist who believe, to cite one example, that being forced to wear a mask abridges their constitutional freedoms, but well over 90% are content to comply.

    No police state is necessary with that kind of citizenry.

    One only needs to look at the world war that followed the 1930s depression to understand that shutting down society would (and to some extent will) kill far more than the small (relative) number of people who will die with coronavirus.

    That’s complete BS. Life expectancy for Americans in 1940 was greater than it was in 1930. So ten years of depression actually led to small improvements in life expectancy. Poverty doesn’t kill people nearly as effectively as does a disease with a 1% IFR.

    Thankfully reality is gradually proving that idiot wrong.

    The last three months have proven Cochran largely right. More importantly, if we had followed his advice, we would better off today than we are now. Better off economically. And obviously better off in our public health.

    • Replies: @Reg Cæsar
    @Pincher Martin


    Life expectancy for Americans in 1940 was greater than it was in 1930. So ten years of depression actually led to small improvements in life expectancy.
     
    Couldn't afford cigarettes. Or whisky. Or ice cream.

    Replies: @anon, @Pincher Martin

    , @Peter Shaw
    @Pincher Martin

    I live in Australia which is following that idiots advice.

    Yes we have avoided some immediate deaths but we’ve cratered the economy FAR more than the USA, which I agree has a pointless half hearted lockdown. But realistically there is noway out. Borders will remain shut indefinitely, we are ending personal privacy with contact tracing apps and the economy will continue down the gurgler. For what.

    As I said we are simply trading lives nows (mostly old sick) for lives in the future (suicides, wars, cancers, less money to spend on general healthcare and research, etc),

    You comment about life expectancy shows your historical ignorance btw. Life expectancy went up every decade from 1900-1950. But guess which decade had the smallest increase, yep the 1930s. Guess what happened in 1939, yep WW2.

    We are headed for something similar thanks to people like that idiot. Anyway Cochran still predicted 2 million a month ago, I predicted 200k. I’m looking right and Cochran wrong (by an order of magnitude). He is not a guru, he is a dangerous idiot.

    Unfortunately I’ll probably be proven right on the economic collapse that is arriving in time too.

    Replies: @Pincher Martin

  135. @sb
    @Peter Akuleyev

    I would characterise Australians as pretty loud compared to Northern Europeans but excitable ?
    Wondering where you think Americans rank . Most non Americans consider Americans to be the measuring stick in these matters .
    Ever been to a beach or restaraunt filled with various nationalities ?

    Replies: @jbwilson24, @Ancient Briton

    Last time I eat at The Outback it was pretty loud – but not so much now…

  136. @Peter Shaw
    @Pincher Martin

    Cochran is an arrogant idiot whose strategy would end up costing lives.

    The USA is a free country with basically open borders so a lockdown is unlikely to work.

    And if a proper lockdown was achieved what would it amount to? Basically the creation of a police state, with a cratered economy for an indefinite period.

    One only needs to look at the world war that followed the 1930s depression to understand that shutting down society would (and to some extent will) kill far more than the small (relative)
    number of people who will die with coronavirus.

    Thankfully reality is gradually proving that idiot wrong.

    Replies: @Pincher Martin, @Pincher Martin

    I’m frankly sick and tired of this lockdown. But I don’t blame Cochran for it; I blame people like you.

    The best strategy for a successful lockdown was to hit the virus hard from the beginning and to do so as broadly as possible. Instead, we gradually ratcheted it up in what was mostly a local manner that eventually helped to slow the spread of the virus and reduce the number of cases, but didn’t come close to eliminating it.

    So once we relax, we will still have many more dead, more local lockdowns, and a continuing stagnant economy for the foreseeable future.

    Thanks, buddy. I guess America owes you its gratitude.

    But remember, we would already be out of this mess if we had followed Cochran’s advice.

    • Replies: @UK
    @Pincher Martin

    China will be in and out of lockdown for years. They can only hope that a workable vaccine that isn't more harmful than the (mild) disease comes soon.

    Which genuinely may never happen...

    That, and they will continue with their utterly dystopian regime of every single citizen being monitored in a way far worse than 1984, with all the abuse of that system which will inevitably ensue.

    But yeah sure Pincher Martin, the people who expect to have something about their actions proven wrong in a court before their business is forcibly shut and they are locked in their homes off and on indefinitely for years are the problem.

    Not that you should care what they do anyway, as absolutely nobody is treating you as you are treating others and expecting you to be forcibly made to abide by their decisions.

    No one thinks you shouldn't have the full right to go late stage Howard Hughes and fill water bottles with urine from your basement while doing whatever else you feel like...

    If you can't see that you are using the advocating of the control of others as a doomed-to-fail emotional cope for your own issues then you can't see anything at all. I mean...why on earth is it your decision whether other people choose to increase their risk of getting Coronavirus?

    This isn't even a libertarian argument I'm making but rather a very straightforward statement that your attitude will not even serve your purpose.

    Replies: @Pincher Martin

  137. UK says:
    @Pincher Martin
    @Peter Shaw

    I'm frankly sick and tired of this lockdown. But I don't blame Cochran for it; I blame people like you.

    The best strategy for a successful lockdown was to hit the virus hard from the beginning and to do so as broadly as possible. Instead, we gradually ratcheted it up in what was mostly a local manner that eventually helped to slow the spread of the virus and reduce the number of cases, but didn't come close to eliminating it.

    So once we relax, we will still have many more dead, more local lockdowns, and a continuing stagnant economy for the foreseeable future.

    Thanks, buddy. I guess America owes you its gratitude.

    But remember, we would already be out of this mess if we had followed Cochran's advice.

    Replies: @UK

    China will be in and out of lockdown for years. They can only hope that a workable vaccine that isn’t more harmful than the (mild) disease comes soon.

    Which genuinely may never happen…

    That, and they will continue with their utterly dystopian regime of every single citizen being monitored in a way far worse than 1984, with all the abuse of that system which will inevitably ensue.

    But yeah sure Pincher Martin, the people who expect to have something about their actions proven wrong in a court before their business is forcibly shut and they are locked in their homes off and on indefinitely for years are the problem.

    Not that you should care what they do anyway, as absolutely nobody is treating you as you are treating others and expecting you to be forcibly made to abide by their decisions.

    No one thinks you shouldn’t have the full right to go late stage Howard Hughes and fill water bottles with urine from your basement while doing whatever else you feel like…

    If you can’t see that you are using the advocating of the control of others as a doomed-to-fail emotional cope for your own issues then you can’t see anything at all. I mean…why on earth is it your decision whether other people choose to increase their risk of getting Coronavirus?

    This isn’t even a libertarian argument I’m making but rather a very straightforward statement that your attitude will not even serve your purpose.

    • Replies: @Pincher Martin
    @UK


    China will be in and out of lockdown for years.
     
    China's an authoritarian regime. The country can lockdown at a moment's notice and not worry a whit about public opinion. Beijing does, however, have to worry about the long-term health of its economy and unnecessary lockdowns bring economic pain, so I would expect the Chinese authorities to make sure their lockdowns - if they have to make them - are quick, local, and effective.

    But yeah sure Pincher Martin, the people who expect to have something about their actions proven wrong in a court before their business is forcibly shut and they are locked in their homes off and on indefinitely for years are the problem.
     
    I feel for them. I share in their pain, as my own business income has been reduced, but we are better off getting through this pain as quickly as possible instead of dragging it out.

    Your proposed policy is no friend of business as it will extend this crisis indefinitely or until we get lucky.


    Not that you should care what they do anyway, as absolutely nobody is treating you as you are treating others and expecting you to be forcibly made to abide by their decisions.
     
    There is no right to endanger public health during a crisis, any more than there is a right for you to be a traitor to your country in a time of war.

    As I've pointed out here many times, echoing several great U.S. legal minds of the past, the constitution is not a suicide pact. Your rights end the moment they begin to endanger public health during a crisis.


    This isn’t even a libertarian argument I’m making but rather a very straightforward statement that your attitude will not even serve your purpose.
     
    Your argument is a very libertarian argument, whether you want to admit it or not.

    It also avoids the main point, which you seem reluctant to address. The experience of several free countries around the world shows we would better off today - both in our public health and economically - if we had followed Cochran's advice. And we would be worse off if we followed yours.

    Replies: @UK

  138. @UK
    @Pincher Martin

    China will be in and out of lockdown for years. They can only hope that a workable vaccine that isn't more harmful than the (mild) disease comes soon.

    Which genuinely may never happen...

    That, and they will continue with their utterly dystopian regime of every single citizen being monitored in a way far worse than 1984, with all the abuse of that system which will inevitably ensue.

    But yeah sure Pincher Martin, the people who expect to have something about their actions proven wrong in a court before their business is forcibly shut and they are locked in their homes off and on indefinitely for years are the problem.

    Not that you should care what they do anyway, as absolutely nobody is treating you as you are treating others and expecting you to be forcibly made to abide by their decisions.

    No one thinks you shouldn't have the full right to go late stage Howard Hughes and fill water bottles with urine from your basement while doing whatever else you feel like...

    If you can't see that you are using the advocating of the control of others as a doomed-to-fail emotional cope for your own issues then you can't see anything at all. I mean...why on earth is it your decision whether other people choose to increase their risk of getting Coronavirus?

    This isn't even a libertarian argument I'm making but rather a very straightforward statement that your attitude will not even serve your purpose.

    Replies: @Pincher Martin

    China will be in and out of lockdown for years.

    China’s an authoritarian regime. The country can lockdown at a moment’s notice and not worry a whit about public opinion. Beijing does, however, have to worry about the long-term health of its economy and unnecessary lockdowns bring economic pain, so I would expect the Chinese authorities to make sure their lockdowns – if they have to make them – are quick, local, and effective.

    But yeah sure Pincher Martin, the people who expect to have something about their actions proven wrong in a court before their business is forcibly shut and they are locked in their homes off and on indefinitely for years are the problem.

    I feel for them. I share in their pain, as my own business income has been reduced, but we are better off getting through this pain as quickly as possible instead of dragging it out.

    Your proposed policy is no friend of business as it will extend this crisis indefinitely or until we get lucky.

    Not that you should care what they do anyway, as absolutely nobody is treating you as you are treating others and expecting you to be forcibly made to abide by their decisions.

    There is no right to endanger public health during a crisis, any more than there is a right for you to be a traitor to your country in a time of war.

    As I’ve pointed out here many times, echoing several great U.S. legal minds of the past, the constitution is not a suicide pact. Your rights end the moment they begin to endanger public health during a crisis.

    This isn’t even a libertarian argument I’m making but rather a very straightforward statement that your attitude will not even serve your purpose.

    Your argument is a very libertarian argument, whether you want to admit it or not.

    It also avoids the main point, which you seem reluctant to address. The experience of several free countries around the world shows we would better off today – both in our public health and economically – if we had followed Cochran’s advice. And we would be worse off if we followed yours.

    • Replies: @UK
    @Pincher Martin

    Your only argument against China being off and on lockdown for years is....you trust them...nice...

    Replies: @Pincher Martin

  139. @Pincher Martin
    @UK


    China will be in and out of lockdown for years.
     
    China's an authoritarian regime. The country can lockdown at a moment's notice and not worry a whit about public opinion. Beijing does, however, have to worry about the long-term health of its economy and unnecessary lockdowns bring economic pain, so I would expect the Chinese authorities to make sure their lockdowns - if they have to make them - are quick, local, and effective.

    But yeah sure Pincher Martin, the people who expect to have something about their actions proven wrong in a court before their business is forcibly shut and they are locked in their homes off and on indefinitely for years are the problem.
     
    I feel for them. I share in their pain, as my own business income has been reduced, but we are better off getting through this pain as quickly as possible instead of dragging it out.

    Your proposed policy is no friend of business as it will extend this crisis indefinitely or until we get lucky.


    Not that you should care what they do anyway, as absolutely nobody is treating you as you are treating others and expecting you to be forcibly made to abide by their decisions.
     
    There is no right to endanger public health during a crisis, any more than there is a right for you to be a traitor to your country in a time of war.

    As I've pointed out here many times, echoing several great U.S. legal minds of the past, the constitution is not a suicide pact. Your rights end the moment they begin to endanger public health during a crisis.


    This isn’t even a libertarian argument I’m making but rather a very straightforward statement that your attitude will not even serve your purpose.
     
    Your argument is a very libertarian argument, whether you want to admit it or not.

    It also avoids the main point, which you seem reluctant to address. The experience of several free countries around the world shows we would better off today - both in our public health and economically - if we had followed Cochran's advice. And we would be worse off if we followed yours.

    Replies: @UK

    Your only argument against China being off and on lockdown for years is….you trust them…nice…

    • Replies: @Pincher Martin
    @UK

    Then you misread that short paragraph.

    I don't trust the Chinese. I trust them to follow their own self-interest, and I think they are smart enough to know how to do that more effectively than you can apparently follow your own self-interest.

    Replies: @UK

  140. @dfordoom
    @Anonymous


    However, the successful actions in clamping down on this have taught a lot of people that it’s possible to eliminate if you try – and it wouldn’t have happened if they didn’t see it with their own eyes in their own country.
     
    Yes. I was very sceptical about elimination but clearly it has worked in a number of countries and now seems very achievable in Australia. I was also very sceptical about lockdowns but clearly they have worked.

    The key point is "if you try" - but then nothing is achievable unless you try.

    Who would have thought that New Zealand would be a model example of a Can Do Nation?

    Alt-righters aren't too happy about New Zealand's success. New Zealand has a prime minister who is not only a lefty but (horror of horrors) a woman. And yet she appears to know what she's doing and in a crisis she has demonstrated actual leadership. I didn't think much of her before this either, but credit where it's due. She has been much more competent than right-wing leaders such as Trump and Boris Johnson.

    Of course Australia has a right-wing prime minister (whom I also heartily disliked prior to this crisis) and he's been fairly competent as well.

    Replies: @anon

    Alt-righters aren’t too happy about New Zealand’s success.

    Please name them so we can all join you in laughing at them. Provide links to comments or websites or articles. I’m sure you have evidence. Share it with us.

  141. utu says:
    @Anonymous
    @utu

    Bravo. Great post.

    Technically elimination is the term for removing all infections with state or country and eradication refers to a state of elimination for every single country in the world. It may be too late for the latter but a network of CV eliminated countries seems possible.

    One thing that Australia did (I think you either left them out or mistyped as Austria?) was close internal borders early in several states, which really put the power and the responsibility on the shoulders of the state premiers. The direction from the PM has been softer than the line taken by the individual states. The PM doesn't appear to really understand this, AFAICT, but he did close the external borders to his credit, not early enough, but earlier than he might have done. However, the successful actions in clamping down on this have taught a lot of people that it's possible to eliminate if you try - and it wouldn't have happened if they didn't see it with their own eyes in their own country.

    In any case, elimination definitely has become part of the national discourse in AU though I think too bold a vision for most politicians to publicly commit to.

    As for what you have said wrt the whys of different response from AU and US... I also regret not backing Steve up in the comments instead of taking a month or so hiatus here. You have opinion leaders like Coulter who read the comments here, if there was some good discussions of more of the "how" and the "why" for elimination, maybe that would have been pivotal in getting the right onside.

    That being said, there are some key differences between USA and AU in terms of how the CV response plays out. AU "lead" the world in work-health safety nannyism. I think you can have too much of a good thing but it worked in the AU favor. The ability of the states to impose travel restrictions also worked in AU (technically not particularly constitutional but aside from some bleating from lawyers, they just sucked it up). And the libertarian/lolbertarian difference - AU ceded guns in the Port Arthur massacre but the US would never give up their 2A AFAICT. Their love of perceived freedom worked against them wrt virus response. See "mouth diapers". WTF?

    Another factor is Trump. Possibly the largest factor. Trump is a genius in many regards but maybe he is too old and too "muh economy" to have adapted well to CV. Because of his relatively inept response (he did close external borders quite early though) and his ill-chosen public statements about CV passing real soon now... the right leapt to his defense. Reality is that other than the CV, he has been an effective president. Probably the best one since Eisenhower maybe, up until 2020. That bought a lot of blind loyalty. If you are going to be blindly loyal to someone they had better be competent in all situations.

    Anyway, the inept US response is kind of bad, but not all bad potentially. I think it may be useful to have some push back against China unless there is a shooting war. It's undeniable that China did allow international travel while at the same time halting internal travel within their country. It was effectively a deliberate policy of infecting the world, and whatever the neocons wanted, this was 100% within Chinese control and they went to the extent of deliberately chiding other countries for imposing their own China travel bans. China is also acting obnoxiously with their island-building projects, and their takeover of other countries through immigration and asset purchase.

    It seems as though the likes of Soros have only just discovered that the enhanced economy have not really changed the Chinese. As Tarrant said, he thinks China has the best government as they are an ethnostate and do things best for the Han race. (I wish there was a large, white country with nukes that behaved this way in a non-expansionist manner.) This is obviously antithetical to Jewish power. However, I don't think the island building will work out for them, any more than Hitler's push East worked out for him, or Japan's empire building. While it is unlikely nukes will be used, China's economy is vulnerable to trade restriction.

    --

    BTW HA, is not wearing helmets on a motorbikes and bicycles still a thing in the USA? That's of the same lolbertarian ilk.

    Replies: @HA, @dfordoom, @utu

    Thanks. I insinuated, however, that our incompetence was amplified on purpose.

    Why we were not allowed to consider the option of the virus eradication? Is it because it would be a threat to globalism, it would foster resurgence of nationalistic right, it would bring national unity and solidarity, it would reestablish borders and national sovereignty? Or is it because a high impact of the epidemic was needed to turn the world and world public opinion against China, to turn China into the pariah nation according to the grand geopolitical scheme concocted by the cabal that Steve Bannon was and is occasionally channeling?

    And I think that the pivot against China was the chief reason. We are where we are where TPTB wanted us to be. The reason smaller countries like NZ could pursue the elimination policy is because they are small and peripheral or perhaps they lost the memo.

    • Replies: @Anonymous
    @utu

    And I think that the pivot against China was the chief reason. We are where we are where TPTB wanted us to be. The reason smaller countries like NZ could pursue the elimination policy is because they are small and peripheral or perhaps they lost the memo.

    It's a hard one to know for sure whether it was incompetence or a deliberate mishandling.

    I think most political leaders don't have the brains to understand the mechanics of elimination. Most didn't have to deal with SARS1, and in a lot of ways SARS1:SARS2 as cowpox:smallpox on a society level.

    One can deal at the level that the body deals with the virus, or at the level of a society dealing with infected individuals. There are quite a few similarities even down to what the antibodies/general immune response does. SARS1 was great in that temperature testing + virus testing + isolation was very effective. I am not sure about masks but wearing masks for flu has been a thing in Asia for quite some time now, certainly pre-SARS1.

    In any case, yes there are TPTB. Remember though that they are a group of people and their expertise in being TPTB doesn't make them infallible or omniscient. Exposure to East Asian culture and practices is not going to be a common thread through the group either. Most key decision makers in TPTB are going to be somewhat at risk for CV anyway. An outbreak in European-majority countries is a personal danger for them. They did block Chinese travel early.

    And once you've made an error as a politician there is a strong urge to avoid a backflip.

    So I am unsure and probably err on the side of ascribing incompetence rather than malice to TPTB. Possible, yes. Now however, they have had time to study, and the policy is going to be increasingly based on what they want, what they can control, and the available options.

    Certainly agree that China pivot was the chief reason, as well.

    Replies: @utu

    , @Peter Shaw
    @utu

    Please tell me how that elimination strategy is supposed to work, without completely shutting the borders indefinitely (or at least isolating all arrivals until tested).

    I don’t think that is practical long term for most countries. It would not work for the USA without a full Trump wall on the southern border.

    It certainly is not practical for NZ. They have a small open economy which of which tourism is 22% of GDP!!

    Replies: @utu

  142. UK says:

    Check out Cambodia, please Steve!

    It is one of the countries in the world that is most reliant on tourism, especially Chinese tourism from places exactly like Hubei, and one that competes adequately for most disorganised nation state, yet it has managed to avoid Coronavirus almost completely.

    It had 124 cases, all recovered with no deaths. The first case was January. Little government action was ever taken and no newspapers have bothered to look at it.

    Perhaps there’s a level of genetic immunity somehow? (I offer this explanation only in the absence of another.)

    It also has an excellent Swiss run hospital that would almost certainly be great at doing testing, so one can be sure that there is no huge hidden outbreak.

    • Replies: @Pincher Martin
    @UK

    I've been to Cambodia. I was in Siem Reap in 2008. The country is so poor and young that I doubt many there would even notice the virus making its way through the country.

    Less than five percent of the country is over 65 years old. I bet comorbidities like diabetes and hypertension are practically nonexistent.

    Replies: @UK

  143. @UK
    @Pincher Martin

    Your only argument against China being off and on lockdown for years is....you trust them...nice...

    Replies: @Pincher Martin

    Then you misread that short paragraph.

    I don’t trust the Chinese. I trust them to follow their own self-interest, and I think they are smart enough to know how to do that more effectively than you can apparently follow your own self-interest.

    • Replies: @UK
    @Pincher Martin

    Statistically, because of my age cohort and health history, this disease would be like a minor cold for me. In fact, it probably was a minor cold that I caught from someone who was tested positive and had the same symptoms who was also similarly barely sick. I've had worse hangovers but still I'm allowed to drink.

    Such is the privilege of not being in at risk category. That is until a bunch of other people decide that I should be forced to isolate like they choose to, so they can feel better about their situation.

    Maybe all of the bad/annoying things in my life should also be enforced on everyone else?

    Replies: @Pincher Martin

  144. UK says:
    @Pincher Martin
    @UK

    Then you misread that short paragraph.

    I don't trust the Chinese. I trust them to follow their own self-interest, and I think they are smart enough to know how to do that more effectively than you can apparently follow your own self-interest.

    Replies: @UK

    Statistically, because of my age cohort and health history, this disease would be like a minor cold for me. In fact, it probably was a minor cold that I caught from someone who was tested positive and had the same symptoms who was also similarly barely sick. I’ve had worse hangovers but still I’m allowed to drink.

    Such is the privilege of not being in at risk category. That is until a bunch of other people decide that I should be forced to isolate like they choose to, so they can feel better about their situation.

    Maybe all of the bad/annoying things in my life should also be enforced on everyone else?

    • Replies: @Pincher Martin
    @UK

    Do you not know anyone over the age of fifty? Do you have no living parents you ever visit? Grandparents? Uncles and aunts? If you're married, does your wife have no such people in her life?

    I'm glad you are at low risk, but that doesn't give you the right to help infect the millions of people who are at high risk.


    I’ve had worse hangovers but still I’m allowed to drink.
     
    Your hangover isn't lethally contagious. Start to think about people other than yourself.

    Replies: @UK

  145. @UK
    Check out Cambodia, please Steve!

    It is one of the countries in the world that is most reliant on tourism, especially Chinese tourism from places exactly like Hubei, and one that competes adequately for most disorganised nation state, yet it has managed to avoid Coronavirus almost completely.

    It had 124 cases, all recovered with no deaths. The first case was January. Little government action was ever taken and no newspapers have bothered to look at it.

    Perhaps there's a level of genetic immunity somehow? (I offer this explanation only in the absence of another.)

    It also has an excellent Swiss run hospital that would almost certainly be great at doing testing, so one can be sure that there is no huge hidden outbreak.

    Replies: @Pincher Martin

    I’ve been to Cambodia. I was in Siem Reap in 2008. The country is so poor and young that I doubt many there would even notice the virus making its way through the country.

    Less than five percent of the country is over 65 years old. I bet comorbidities like diabetes and hypertension are practically nonexistent.

    • Replies: @UK
    @Pincher Martin

    Yes, it might be that much like most of Africa, Cambodia is instead demographically immune to Coronavirus.

    The CDC is now estimating that the US CFR (not even IFR) for those under 50 is 0.05%. I wonder if many people under a certain age even shed enough viral load to be effective vectors for transmission.

    In other words, perhaps the R0 is far lower in a much younger society and perhaps even below 1.

    I also do think, from speaking with doctors who have experienced it, that they would notice if they had a big outbreak. Hospital wards do reliably fill with people with the pertinent symptoms regardless of whether there is enough testing or not.

    Replies: @Pincher Martin

  146. Anonymous[413] • Disclaimer says:
    @utu
    @Anonymous

    Thanks. I insinuated, however, that our incompetence was amplified on purpose.


    Why we were not allowed to consider the option of the virus eradication? Is it because it would be a threat to globalism, it would foster resurgence of nationalistic right, it would bring national unity and solidarity, it would reestablish borders and national sovereignty? Or is it because a high impact of the epidemic was needed to turn the world and world public opinion against China, to turn China into the pariah nation according to the grand geopolitical scheme concocted by the cabal that Steve Bannon was and is occasionally channeling?
     
    And I think that the pivot against China was the chief reason. We are where we are where TPTB wanted us to be. The reason smaller countries like NZ could pursue the elimination policy is because they are small and peripheral or perhaps they lost the memo.

    Replies: @Anonymous, @Peter Shaw

    And I think that the pivot against China was the chief reason. We are where we are where TPTB wanted us to be. The reason smaller countries like NZ could pursue the elimination policy is because they are small and peripheral or perhaps they lost the memo.

    It’s a hard one to know for sure whether it was incompetence or a deliberate mishandling.

    I think most political leaders don’t have the brains to understand the mechanics of elimination. Most didn’t have to deal with SARS1, and in a lot of ways SARS1:SARS2 as cowpox:smallpox on a society level.

    One can deal at the level that the body deals with the virus, or at the level of a society dealing with infected individuals. There are quite a few similarities even down to what the antibodies/general immune response does. SARS1 was great in that temperature testing + virus testing + isolation was very effective. I am not sure about masks but wearing masks for flu has been a thing in Asia for quite some time now, certainly pre-SARS1.

    In any case, yes there are TPTB. Remember though that they are a group of people and their expertise in being TPTB doesn’t make them infallible or omniscient. Exposure to East Asian culture and practices is not going to be a common thread through the group either. Most key decision makers in TPTB are going to be somewhat at risk for CV anyway. An outbreak in European-majority countries is a personal danger for them. They did block Chinese travel early.

    And once you’ve made an error as a politician there is a strong urge to avoid a backflip.

    So I am unsure and probably err on the side of ascribing incompetence rather than malice to TPTB. Possible, yes. Now however, they have had time to study, and the policy is going to be increasingly based on what they want, what they can control, and the available options.

    Certainly agree that China pivot was the chief reason, as well.

    • Replies: @utu
    @Anonymous

    "I am not sure about masks but wearing masks for flu has been a thing in Asia for quite some time now, " - Masks work if worn by 80% of population then reduction of R0 is significant.. The question is why were we told and still being told by CDC and WHO that masks are ineffective? Why don't they point to successes to East Asia countries that wear masks? My theory: Mask wearing East Asians are bad for vaccination business.

    https://www.unz.com/akarlin/corona-probably-out-of-control-in-dagestan/#comment-3908179

    "I think most political leaders don’t have the brains to understand the mechanics of elimination." - Probably, but there is CDC and hundreds of experts at universities and national labs. And I am pretty sure they have emergency ready to be used plans and different scenarios written many years ago for all kinds of epidemics in filing cabinets in CIA, DIA, Pentagon and FEMA.

    "So I am unsure and probably err on the side of ascribing incompetence rather than malice " - I understand. However, it does not take much to introduce just a little bit of malice to make already incompetent system even more incompetent. All it took was to not put on the table the elimination option and instead throwing at everybody the unmitigated option with limited alternative of curve flattening option. We all, including politicians, who as you said do not know better, ended up being locked into this limited alternative in which we remain in the futile discourse fending off libertarian nonsense that lockdowns are bad or that real men do not wear masks.

    Back to China. Was it a mistake for China to be so successful in eliminating the virus? Was it a mistake to minimize the damage, if indeed they lied? They could have gained sympathy around the world by showing vulnerability and by feigning that they were a wounded animal they could satisfy the bloodthirsty jackals that enough damage was done. Instead of competing who is better competing who is worse off. There must be a Jewish joke about it.

    I guess that all authoritarian systems even when they have at the tips of their fingers all wisdoms of Chinese sages they rather want to project strength and effectiveness because they play in front of domestic audience who can't never be shown any weakness. The strength of authoritarian systems comes form strength only while the democratic system can be strong through its weakness.

  147. @I. Racist
    @J.Ross

    In a 50 round qualification shoot, I had two failures. In addition to the usual failures to feed, stovepipes and light primer strikes, it would occasionally fail to extract a spent casing. Accepted practice in this event was to hand the rifle to an NCO who would smash the charging handle against a fixed object with all of his might (other ranks not being trusted to perform such delicate operation). This didn't inspire much confidence when deploying with it.

    There's a reason neither the Aussie or kiwi SAS used the AUG in anger: they had a choice.

    Replies: @Joe Stalin, @J.Ross

    There are times when I want to hear about some army somewhere contracting new production 7.62 NATO Savage 99’s with detachable box mags.

  148. @Pincher Martin
    @Peter Shaw


    Cochran is an arrogant idiot whose strategy would end up costing lives.
     
    You have it exactly the opposite. We would be out of this mess already if Cochran's advice had been promptly followed. The economy would already be bouncing back and restrictions would already be significantly reduced.

    On. the other hand, if we follow your advice, we'll be lucky to ever get of this mess.


    The USA is a free country with basically open borders so a lockdown is unlikely to work.
     
    Several free countries with what were open borders have already successfully implemented a lockdown strategy. There's no reason to believe that such a strategy was "unlikely" to work in the U.S. Borders have already been closed to nonessential traffic; most overseas flights have been cancelled; and much of what you believe was "unlikely" to happen has already happened - just too late to be of much good in eliminating the virus.

    And if a proper lockdown was achieved what would it amount to? Basically the creation of a police state, with a cratered economy for an indefinite period.
     
    How can you a police state be spawned in two months?

    The vast majority of Americans will voluntarily follow government and business requirements for public interaction if they think it helps their fellow Americans. The problem was that the government was slow to implement them. It was more reactive than proactive.

    I know a few yahoos exist who believe, to cite one example, that being forced to wear a mask abridges their constitutional freedoms, but well over 90% are content to comply.

    No police state is necessary with that kind of citizenry.


    One only needs to look at the world war that followed the 1930s depression to understand that shutting down society would (and to some extent will) kill far more than the small (relative) number of people who will die with coronavirus.
     
    That's complete BS. Life expectancy for Americans in 1940 was greater than it was in 1930. So ten years of depression actually led to small improvements in life expectancy. Poverty doesn't kill people nearly as effectively as does a disease with a 1% IFR.

    Thankfully reality is gradually proving that idiot wrong.
     
    The last three months have proven Cochran largely right. More importantly, if we had followed his advice, we would better off today than we are now. Better off economically. And obviously better off in our public health.

    Replies: @Reg Cæsar, @Peter Shaw

    Life expectancy for Americans in 1940 was greater than it was in 1930. So ten years of depression actually led to small improvements in life expectancy.

    Couldn’t afford cigarettes. Or whisky. Or ice cream.

    • Replies: @anon
    @Reg Cæsar

    As long as you weren't starved in childhood very low calorie diet isn't bad for you.
    There are still survivors of the Burma Railway alive and plenty of them lived to be very old men.
    Here's one: https://websfavourites.com/world-news/australia/tributes-to-thai-burma-railway-survivor-harold-martin
    The story is maudlin, but there are plenty of them.

    Replies: @Peter Shaw

    , @Pincher Martin
    @Reg Cæsar

    I doubt the cost of alcohol had much effect. The price of alcohol went down in the nineteen-thirties after it had more than tripled during Prohibition (1920-33).

    But drinking alcohol when it was prohibited was certainly more dangerous, and hence more likely to kill you, than drinking alcohol regulated by the states in the thirties.

  149. anon[110] • Disclaimer says:
    @Reg Cæsar
    @Pincher Martin


    Life expectancy for Americans in 1940 was greater than it was in 1930. So ten years of depression actually led to small improvements in life expectancy.
     
    Couldn't afford cigarettes. Or whisky. Or ice cream.

    Replies: @anon, @Pincher Martin

    As long as you weren’t starved in childhood very low calorie diet isn’t bad for you.
    There are still survivors of the Burma Railway alive and plenty of them lived to be very old men.
    Here’s one: https://websfavourites.com/world-news/australia/tributes-to-thai-burma-railway-survivor-harold-martin
    The story is maudlin, but there are plenty of them.

    • Replies: @Peter Shaw
    @anon

    That is definitely true, if you want to live long eat infrequently.

    But the depression definitely reduced life expectancy. Probably about 1.5 years per person

    The 1930s had the smallest increase in life expectancy in the first half of the 20th century. In the 1920s life expectancy went up by almost 5 years. In the 30s, 2.5, in the 40s despite the world war almost 4 years.

    The mechanisms are unclear but depression, suicide, alcohol abuse and plenty more all went up.

    Replies: @Pincher Martin

  150. @Pincher Martin
    @Peter Shaw


    Cochran is an arrogant idiot whose strategy would end up costing lives.
     
    You have it exactly the opposite. We would be out of this mess already if Cochran's advice had been promptly followed. The economy would already be bouncing back and restrictions would already be significantly reduced.

    On. the other hand, if we follow your advice, we'll be lucky to ever get of this mess.


    The USA is a free country with basically open borders so a lockdown is unlikely to work.
     
    Several free countries with what were open borders have already successfully implemented a lockdown strategy. There's no reason to believe that such a strategy was "unlikely" to work in the U.S. Borders have already been closed to nonessential traffic; most overseas flights have been cancelled; and much of what you believe was "unlikely" to happen has already happened - just too late to be of much good in eliminating the virus.

    And if a proper lockdown was achieved what would it amount to? Basically the creation of a police state, with a cratered economy for an indefinite period.
     
    How can you a police state be spawned in two months?

    The vast majority of Americans will voluntarily follow government and business requirements for public interaction if they think it helps their fellow Americans. The problem was that the government was slow to implement them. It was more reactive than proactive.

    I know a few yahoos exist who believe, to cite one example, that being forced to wear a mask abridges their constitutional freedoms, but well over 90% are content to comply.

    No police state is necessary with that kind of citizenry.


    One only needs to look at the world war that followed the 1930s depression to understand that shutting down society would (and to some extent will) kill far more than the small (relative) number of people who will die with coronavirus.
     
    That's complete BS. Life expectancy for Americans in 1940 was greater than it was in 1930. So ten years of depression actually led to small improvements in life expectancy. Poverty doesn't kill people nearly as effectively as does a disease with a 1% IFR.

    Thankfully reality is gradually proving that idiot wrong.
     
    The last three months have proven Cochran largely right. More importantly, if we had followed his advice, we would better off today than we are now. Better off economically. And obviously better off in our public health.

    Replies: @Reg Cæsar, @Peter Shaw

    I live in Australia which is following that idiots advice.

    Yes we have avoided some immediate deaths but we’ve cratered the economy FAR more than the USA, which I agree has a pointless half hearted lockdown. But realistically there is noway out. Borders will remain shut indefinitely, we are ending personal privacy with contact tracing apps and the economy will continue down the gurgler. For what.

    As I said we are simply trading lives nows (mostly old sick) for lives in the future (suicides, wars, cancers, less money to spend on general healthcare and research, etc),

    You comment about life expectancy shows your historical ignorance btw. Life expectancy went up every decade from 1900-1950. But guess which decade had the smallest increase, yep the 1930s. Guess what happened in 1939, yep WW2.

    We are headed for something similar thanks to people like that idiot. Anyway Cochran still predicted 2 million a month ago, I predicted 200k. I’m looking right and Cochran wrong (by an order of magnitude). He is not a guru, he is a dangerous idiot.

    Unfortunately I’ll probably be proven right on the economic collapse that is arriving in time too.

    • Replies: @Pincher Martin
    @Peter Shaw


    I live in Australia which is following that idiots advice.
     
    Thank your lucky stars that your country's leaders are smarter than you are.

    You could be living in a place like the U.S., with its moderate patchwork of local lockdowns that have worked only moderately well, or you could be in Sweden which is dumb enough to try and go for herd immunity.

    Yes we have avoided some immediate deaths but we’ve cratered the economy FAR more than the USA...
     
    So far. Domestically, you Aussies are out of the mess. We in the U.S. are not out of it. So going forward you are in much better shape than we are in. That will help your growth and inhibit ours.

    Of course your economy will not come back all the way because, internationally, we still have a big problem. But I'm living in northern California and I still can't even go out to eat in public nor enter a store without a mask nor patronize retail centers in any routine way.

    Do you still have those problems? If not, then stop complaining.

    You comment about life expectancy shows your historical ignorance btw. Life expectancy went up every decade from 1900-1950. But guess which decade had the smallest increase, yep the 1930s. Guess what happened in 1939, yep WW2.
     
    For you Aussies, maybe, but for us Americans it did not begin until 1941.

    Replies: @Peter Shaw, @dfordoom

  151. @anon
    @Reg Cæsar

    As long as you weren't starved in childhood very low calorie diet isn't bad for you.
    There are still survivors of the Burma Railway alive and plenty of them lived to be very old men.
    Here's one: https://websfavourites.com/world-news/australia/tributes-to-thai-burma-railway-survivor-harold-martin
    The story is maudlin, but there are plenty of them.

    Replies: @Peter Shaw

    That is definitely true, if you want to live long eat infrequently.

    But the depression definitely reduced life expectancy. Probably about 1.5 years per person

    The 1930s had the smallest increase in life expectancy in the first half of the 20th century. In the 1920s life expectancy went up by almost 5 years. In the 30s, 2.5, in the 40s despite the world war almost 4 years.

    The mechanisms are unclear but depression, suicide, alcohol abuse and plenty more all went up.

    • Replies: @Pincher Martin
    @Peter Shaw

    You contradict yourself.


    But the depression definitely reduced life expectancy. Probably about 1.5 years per person
     

    The 1930s had the smallest increase in life expectancy in the first half of the 20th century. In the 1920s life expectancy went up by almost 5 years. In the 30s, 2.5, in the 40s despite the world war almost 4 years.
     
    The Great Depression is generally thought to have lasted from October, 1929, to the beginning of WW2 in December 1941, so a good proxy for testing your thesis is to look at life expectancy from 1930 to 1940.

    And as you admit, life expectancy went up in that decade.

    Replies: @Peter Shaw

  152. @utu
    @Anonymous

    Thanks. I insinuated, however, that our incompetence was amplified on purpose.


    Why we were not allowed to consider the option of the virus eradication? Is it because it would be a threat to globalism, it would foster resurgence of nationalistic right, it would bring national unity and solidarity, it would reestablish borders and national sovereignty? Or is it because a high impact of the epidemic was needed to turn the world and world public opinion against China, to turn China into the pariah nation according to the grand geopolitical scheme concocted by the cabal that Steve Bannon was and is occasionally channeling?
     
    And I think that the pivot against China was the chief reason. We are where we are where TPTB wanted us to be. The reason smaller countries like NZ could pursue the elimination policy is because they are small and peripheral or perhaps they lost the memo.

    Replies: @Anonymous, @Peter Shaw

    Please tell me how that elimination strategy is supposed to work, without completely shutting the borders indefinitely (or at least isolating all arrivals until tested).

    I don’t think that is practical long term for most countries. It would not work for the USA without a full Trump wall on the southern border.

    It certainly is not practical for NZ. They have a small open economy which of which tourism is 22% of GDP!!

    • Replies: @utu
    @Peter Shaw

    "Please tell me how that elimination strategy is supposed to work, without completely shutting the borders indefinitely (or at least isolating all arrivals until tested)." - Not a question but a challenge in bad faith by globohomo communist who wants open borders to smuggle HIV in his rectum to every country in the world.

    For as long as virus is active in other countries you must control border traffic very tightly. Actually this is what every nationalist would pray to happen to assert sovereignty, border control and immigration policy reevaluation.

    To prevent the import of virus the visitors would be divided into several categories:

    (a) virus positive: sent back or quarantine
    (b) symptomatic: sent back or quarantine
    (c) anti-body positive can eneter
    (d) else: depends on country of origin, quarantine and tracing and testing every 5 days or refuse entry.

    Basic things that were done for centuries during contagions. This is what Ellis Island for. The UK, AUS and NZ always had very strict border crossing procedures.

    Replies: @Peter Shaw

  153. UK says:
    @Pincher Martin
    @UK

    I've been to Cambodia. I was in Siem Reap in 2008. The country is so poor and young that I doubt many there would even notice the virus making its way through the country.

    Less than five percent of the country is over 65 years old. I bet comorbidities like diabetes and hypertension are practically nonexistent.

    Replies: @UK

    Yes, it might be that much like most of Africa, Cambodia is instead demographically immune to Coronavirus.

    The CDC is now estimating that the US CFR (not even IFR) for those under 50 is 0.05%. I wonder if many people under a certain age even shed enough viral load to be effective vectors for transmission.

    In other words, perhaps the R0 is far lower in a much younger society and perhaps even below 1.

    I also do think, from speaking with doctors who have experienced it, that they would notice if they had a big outbreak. Hospital wards do reliably fill with people with the pertinent symptoms regardless of whether there is enough testing or not.

    • Replies: @Pincher Martin
    @UK

    I agree the young are pretty much immune to this virus, but I don't agree they help lower the spread of it.

    Viruses can mutate, however, and by allowing the spread of COVID-19, we increase the chances it will mutate to a strain that is more lethal.


    I also do think, from speaking with doctors who have experienced it, that they would notice if they had a big outbreak. Hospital wards do reliably fill with people with the pertinent symptoms regardless of whether there is enough testing or not.
     
    But only in countries which are affluent and old. Cambodia is neither. Not a lot of old people in nursing homes or fifty-year-old fatties with type-2 diabetes in Phnom Penh.
  154. utu says:
    @Anonymous
    @utu

    And I think that the pivot against China was the chief reason. We are where we are where TPTB wanted us to be. The reason smaller countries like NZ could pursue the elimination policy is because they are small and peripheral or perhaps they lost the memo.

    It's a hard one to know for sure whether it was incompetence or a deliberate mishandling.

    I think most political leaders don't have the brains to understand the mechanics of elimination. Most didn't have to deal with SARS1, and in a lot of ways SARS1:SARS2 as cowpox:smallpox on a society level.

    One can deal at the level that the body deals with the virus, or at the level of a society dealing with infected individuals. There are quite a few similarities even down to what the antibodies/general immune response does. SARS1 was great in that temperature testing + virus testing + isolation was very effective. I am not sure about masks but wearing masks for flu has been a thing in Asia for quite some time now, certainly pre-SARS1.

    In any case, yes there are TPTB. Remember though that they are a group of people and their expertise in being TPTB doesn't make them infallible or omniscient. Exposure to East Asian culture and practices is not going to be a common thread through the group either. Most key decision makers in TPTB are going to be somewhat at risk for CV anyway. An outbreak in European-majority countries is a personal danger for them. They did block Chinese travel early.

    And once you've made an error as a politician there is a strong urge to avoid a backflip.

    So I am unsure and probably err on the side of ascribing incompetence rather than malice to TPTB. Possible, yes. Now however, they have had time to study, and the policy is going to be increasingly based on what they want, what they can control, and the available options.

    Certainly agree that China pivot was the chief reason, as well.

    Replies: @utu

    “I am not sure about masks but wearing masks for flu has been a thing in Asia for quite some time now, “ – Masks work if worn by 80% of population then reduction of R0 is significant.. The question is why were we told and still being told by CDC and WHO that masks are ineffective? Why don’t they point to successes to East Asia countries that wear masks? My theory: Mask wearing East Asians are bad for vaccination business.

    https://www.unz.com/akarlin/corona-probably-out-of-control-in-dagestan/#comment-3908179

    “I think most political leaders don’t have the brains to understand the mechanics of elimination.” – Probably, but there is CDC and hundreds of experts at universities and national labs. And I am pretty sure they have emergency ready to be used plans and different scenarios written many years ago for all kinds of epidemics in filing cabinets in CIA, DIA, Pentagon and FEMA.

    “So I am unsure and probably err on the side of ascribing incompetence rather than malice ” – I understand. However, it does not take much to introduce just a little bit of malice to make already incompetent system even more incompetent. All it took was to not put on the table the elimination option and instead throwing at everybody the unmitigated option with limited alternative of curve flattening option. We all, including politicians, who as you said do not know better, ended up being locked into this limited alternative in which we remain in the futile discourse fending off libertarian nonsense that lockdowns are bad or that real men do not wear masks.

    Back to China. Was it a mistake for China to be so successful in eliminating the virus? Was it a mistake to minimize the damage, if indeed they lied? They could have gained sympathy around the world by showing vulnerability and by feigning that they were a wounded animal they could satisfy the bloodthirsty jackals that enough damage was done. Instead of competing who is better competing who is worse off. There must be a Jewish joke about it.

    I guess that all authoritarian systems even when they have at the tips of their fingers all wisdoms of Chinese sages they rather want to project strength and effectiveness because they play in front of domestic audience who can’t never be shown any weakness. The strength of authoritarian systems comes form strength only while the democratic system can be strong through its weakness.

  155. utu says:
    @Peter Shaw
    @utu

    Please tell me how that elimination strategy is supposed to work, without completely shutting the borders indefinitely (or at least isolating all arrivals until tested).

    I don’t think that is practical long term for most countries. It would not work for the USA without a full Trump wall on the southern border.

    It certainly is not practical for NZ. They have a small open economy which of which tourism is 22% of GDP!!

    Replies: @utu

    “Please tell me how that elimination strategy is supposed to work, without completely shutting the borders indefinitely (or at least isolating all arrivals until tested).” – Not a question but a challenge in bad faith by globohomo communist who wants open borders to smuggle HIV in his rectum to every country in the world.

    For as long as virus is active in other countries you must control border traffic very tightly. Actually this is what every nationalist would pray to happen to assert sovereignty, border control and immigration policy reevaluation.

    To prevent the import of virus the visitors would be divided into several categories:

    (a) virus positive: sent back or quarantine
    (b) symptomatic: sent back or quarantine
    (c) anti-body positive can eneter
    (d) else: depends on country of origin, quarantine and tracing and testing every 5 days or refuse entry.

    Basic things that were done for centuries during contagions. This is what Ellis Island for. The UK, AUS and NZ always had very strict border crossing procedures.

    • Agree: dfordoom
    • Replies: @Peter Shaw
    @utu

    Firstly I’m not gay and even if I was so what. I’m not a globalist, and I’m pretty right wing in my politics. All of this irrelevant though just like your ridiculous ad hominem trolling

    Your proposal is unrealistic, I’m all for controlling borders but how are you going to screen everyone? Temperature is unreliable and has plenty of false positives. Administering blood tests at the airport, unrealistic. Quarantining people for days is also unrealistic. Testing at the country of departure unauditable.

    More importantly your proposal lacks historical perspective. You do know that those historical quarantining measures at the border largely did not work for respiratory diseases. The Spanish flu and other pandemics reached America, Australia etc. despite these measures.

  156. @UK
    @Pincher Martin

    Statistically, because of my age cohort and health history, this disease would be like a minor cold for me. In fact, it probably was a minor cold that I caught from someone who was tested positive and had the same symptoms who was also similarly barely sick. I've had worse hangovers but still I'm allowed to drink.

    Such is the privilege of not being in at risk category. That is until a bunch of other people decide that I should be forced to isolate like they choose to, so they can feel better about their situation.

    Maybe all of the bad/annoying things in my life should also be enforced on everyone else?

    Replies: @Pincher Martin

    Do you not know anyone over the age of fifty? Do you have no living parents you ever visit? Grandparents? Uncles and aunts? If you’re married, does your wife have no such people in her life?

    I’m glad you are at low risk, but that doesn’t give you the right to help infect the millions of people who are at high risk.

    I’ve had worse hangovers but still I’m allowed to drink.

    Your hangover isn’t lethally contagious. Start to think about people other than yourself.

    • Replies: @UK
    @Pincher Martin

    All of those people can do what they are doing now and isolate, if that is what they so choose.

    Surely my response was implied by my previous posting and therefore you must have been able to realise that your reply was already answered? Or are you that stupid that you couldn't work it out and so your insult towards me was just born of your own idiocy?

    Replies: @Pincher Martin

  157. @Reg Cæsar
    @Pincher Martin


    Life expectancy for Americans in 1940 was greater than it was in 1930. So ten years of depression actually led to small improvements in life expectancy.
     
    Couldn't afford cigarettes. Or whisky. Or ice cream.

    Replies: @anon, @Pincher Martin

    I doubt the cost of alcohol had much effect. The price of alcohol went down in the nineteen-thirties after it had more than tripled during Prohibition (1920-33).

    But drinking alcohol when it was prohibited was certainly more dangerous, and hence more likely to kill you, than drinking alcohol regulated by the states in the thirties.

  158. @Pincher Martin
    @UK

    Do you not know anyone over the age of fifty? Do you have no living parents you ever visit? Grandparents? Uncles and aunts? If you're married, does your wife have no such people in her life?

    I'm glad you are at low risk, but that doesn't give you the right to help infect the millions of people who are at high risk.


    I’ve had worse hangovers but still I’m allowed to drink.
     
    Your hangover isn't lethally contagious. Start to think about people other than yourself.

    Replies: @UK

    All of those people can do what they are doing now and isolate, if that is what they so choose.

    Surely my response was implied by my previous posting and therefore you must have been able to realise that your reply was already answered? Or are you that stupid that you couldn’t work it out and so your insult towards me was just born of your own idiocy?

    • Replies: @Pincher Martin
    @UK


    All of those people can do what they are doing now and isolate, if that is what they so choose.
     
    It's not so easy, as even a moment's thought would make obvious to someone who wasn't a moron. If only 1% of the population dies from this disease, probably more than 10% to 20% are in high-risk groups that *could* die from it.

    Are you an overweight 50-year-old male with hypertension and type-2 diabetes? You probably won't die from this disease, but you could. The risk isn't trivially small. And even if you don't die, you will most likely get awfully sick.

    If the U.S. has to cordon off every overweight 50-year-old with some persistent health problems, our economy will grind to a halt. What are employers supposed to do if these people say they need time off from work until herd immunity hits some months down the road? Fire them?

    Try to think before you type. It will improve the quality of your posts.

    Replies: @UK, @Steve Sailer

  159. @UK
    @Pincher Martin

    Yes, it might be that much like most of Africa, Cambodia is instead demographically immune to Coronavirus.

    The CDC is now estimating that the US CFR (not even IFR) for those under 50 is 0.05%. I wonder if many people under a certain age even shed enough viral load to be effective vectors for transmission.

    In other words, perhaps the R0 is far lower in a much younger society and perhaps even below 1.

    I also do think, from speaking with doctors who have experienced it, that they would notice if they had a big outbreak. Hospital wards do reliably fill with people with the pertinent symptoms regardless of whether there is enough testing or not.

    Replies: @Pincher Martin

    I agree the young are pretty much immune to this virus, but I don’t agree they help lower the spread of it.

    Viruses can mutate, however, and by allowing the spread of COVID-19, we increase the chances it will mutate to a strain that is more lethal.

    I also do think, from speaking with doctors who have experienced it, that they would notice if they had a big outbreak. Hospital wards do reliably fill with people with the pertinent symptoms regardless of whether there is enough testing or not.

    But only in countries which are affluent and old. Cambodia is neither. Not a lot of old people in nursing homes or fifty-year-old fatties with type-2 diabetes in Phnom Penh.

  160. @Peter Shaw
    @anon

    That is definitely true, if you want to live long eat infrequently.

    But the depression definitely reduced life expectancy. Probably about 1.5 years per person

    The 1930s had the smallest increase in life expectancy in the first half of the 20th century. In the 1920s life expectancy went up by almost 5 years. In the 30s, 2.5, in the 40s despite the world war almost 4 years.

    The mechanisms are unclear but depression, suicide, alcohol abuse and plenty more all went up.

    Replies: @Pincher Martin

    You contradict yourself.

    But the depression definitely reduced life expectancy. Probably about 1.5 years per person

    The 1930s had the smallest increase in life expectancy in the first half of the 20th century. In the 1920s life expectancy went up by almost 5 years. In the 30s, 2.5, in the 40s despite the world war almost 4 years.

    The Great Depression is generally thought to have lasted from October, 1929, to the beginning of WW2 in December 1941, so a good proxy for testing your thesis is to look at life expectancy from 1930 to 1940.

    And as you admit, life expectancy went up in that decade.

    • Replies: @Peter Shaw
    @Pincher Martin

    Can you read?

    1930-1940 had the smallest life expectancy increase for any decade in the first half of the 20th century.

    Oh and then ww2 started.

    Looks like we might have depressions 2.0 shortly. This one created by people like you. I wonder what problems that will have in store for us.

    Replies: @Pincher Martin

  161. @Peter Shaw
    @Pincher Martin

    I live in Australia which is following that idiots advice.

    Yes we have avoided some immediate deaths but we’ve cratered the economy FAR more than the USA, which I agree has a pointless half hearted lockdown. But realistically there is noway out. Borders will remain shut indefinitely, we are ending personal privacy with contact tracing apps and the economy will continue down the gurgler. For what.

    As I said we are simply trading lives nows (mostly old sick) for lives in the future (suicides, wars, cancers, less money to spend on general healthcare and research, etc),

    You comment about life expectancy shows your historical ignorance btw. Life expectancy went up every decade from 1900-1950. But guess which decade had the smallest increase, yep the 1930s. Guess what happened in 1939, yep WW2.

    We are headed for something similar thanks to people like that idiot. Anyway Cochran still predicted 2 million a month ago, I predicted 200k. I’m looking right and Cochran wrong (by an order of magnitude). He is not a guru, he is a dangerous idiot.

    Unfortunately I’ll probably be proven right on the economic collapse that is arriving in time too.

    Replies: @Pincher Martin

    I live in Australia which is following that idiots advice.

    Thank your lucky stars that your country’s leaders are smarter than you are.

    You could be living in a place like the U.S., with its moderate patchwork of local lockdowns that have worked only moderately well, or you could be in Sweden which is dumb enough to try and go for herd immunity.

    Yes we have avoided some immediate deaths but we’ve cratered the economy FAR more than the USA…

    So far. Domestically, you Aussies are out of the mess. We in the U.S. are not out of it. So going forward you are in much better shape than we are in. That will help your growth and inhibit ours.

    Of course your economy will not come back all the way because, internationally, we still have a big problem. But I’m living in northern California and I still can’t even go out to eat in public nor enter a store without a mask nor patronize retail centers in any routine way.

    Do you still have those problems? If not, then stop complaining.

    You comment about life expectancy shows your historical ignorance btw. Life expectancy went up every decade from 1900-1950. But guess which decade had the smallest increase, yep the 1930s. Guess what happened in 1939, yep WW2.

    For you Aussies, maybe, but for us Americans it did not begin until 1941.

    • Replies: @Peter Shaw
    @Pincher Martin

    like Cochran you are ignorant, perhaps wilfully, and display a assinine arrogance

    The lockdown here in Australia is harder than the USA. The only difference is we have basically no deaths (103 atm). We may eliminate it but then what. We shall have permanently closed borders and a economy that can never properly open up (the tourism and education industries are huge in this country) without coronavirus returning. If you can suggest a way out please tell me.

    Sweden has had 4K deaths with coronavirus. Overwhelmingly old and with comorbidities. They have never properly shut and can return to normalcy soon. Australia will have a low level lockdown for many years.

    What you won’t accept, not sure why, is that the economy is society. And when you shut it down bad things happen, every time. Life expectancy goes down (relatively), violence goes up, wars happen, our rights are trampled, depression rises etc. The coronavirus is small in comparison.

    To be fair most of the damage has already been done. But it was largely thanks to alarmist with no sense of historical perspective like you and Cochran.

    Replies: @Steve Sailer, @Pincher Martin

    , @dfordoom
    @Pincher Martin


    So far. Domestically, you Aussies are out of the mess. We in the U.S. are not out of it. So going forward you are in much better shape than we are in. That will help your growth and inhibit ours.
     
    Yes. Australia now has options. The idea in both Australia and New Zealand seemed to be to get the economic pain over and done with as quickly as possible.
  162. @UK
    @Pincher Martin

    All of those people can do what they are doing now and isolate, if that is what they so choose.

    Surely my response was implied by my previous posting and therefore you must have been able to realise that your reply was already answered? Or are you that stupid that you couldn't work it out and so your insult towards me was just born of your own idiocy?

    Replies: @Pincher Martin

    All of those people can do what they are doing now and isolate, if that is what they so choose.

    It’s not so easy, as even a moment’s thought would make obvious to someone who wasn’t a moron. If only 1% of the population dies from this disease, probably more than 10% to 20% are in high-risk groups that *could* die from it.

    Are you an overweight 50-year-old male with hypertension and type-2 diabetes? You probably won’t die from this disease, but you could. The risk isn’t trivially small. And even if you don’t die, you will most likely get awfully sick.

    If the U.S. has to cordon off every overweight 50-year-old with some persistent health problems, our economy will grind to a halt. What are employers supposed to do if these people say they need time off from work until herd immunity hits some months down the road? Fire them?

    Try to think before you type. It will improve the quality of your posts.

    • Replies: @UK
    @Pincher Martin

    Divide the number who dies by at least 5. Even the CDC is practically at that estimation now.

    Anyway, bore off with your nonsense. You decry a small percentage of people isolating because it'll be bad for the country while therefore implicitly supporting almost everyone isolating instead. And, most bizarrely, the latter with no planned end...

    Replies: @Pincher Martin

    , @Steve Sailer
    @Pincher Martin

    What percentage of employers are under, say, 50?

    Replies: @Pincher Martin

  163. UK says:
    @Pincher Martin
    @UK


    All of those people can do what they are doing now and isolate, if that is what they so choose.
     
    It's not so easy, as even a moment's thought would make obvious to someone who wasn't a moron. If only 1% of the population dies from this disease, probably more than 10% to 20% are in high-risk groups that *could* die from it.

    Are you an overweight 50-year-old male with hypertension and type-2 diabetes? You probably won't die from this disease, but you could. The risk isn't trivially small. And even if you don't die, you will most likely get awfully sick.

    If the U.S. has to cordon off every overweight 50-year-old with some persistent health problems, our economy will grind to a halt. What are employers supposed to do if these people say they need time off from work until herd immunity hits some months down the road? Fire them?

    Try to think before you type. It will improve the quality of your posts.

    Replies: @UK, @Steve Sailer

    Divide the number who dies by at least 5. Even the CDC is practically at that estimation now.

    Anyway, bore off with your nonsense. You decry a small percentage of people isolating because it’ll be bad for the country while therefore implicitly supporting almost everyone isolating instead. And, most bizarrely, the latter with no planned end…

    • Replies: @Pincher Martin
    @UK


    Divide the number who dies by at least 5. Even the CDC is practically at that estimation now.
     
    Prove it. Show me where the CDC says that COVID-19 is only twice as deadly as the flu.

    And, most bizarrely, the latter with no planned end…
     
    Oh, no. I want it to end. That's why I'm envious of countries like Taiwan, Hong Kong, Australia, New Zealand, etc., because they are well on the road back to normalcy. I want to go to restaurants again. I want to go to the gym. I want to go to the cinema and see the summer blockbusters. I want to go to the mall with my wife. I want to watch sporting events. I had to cancel my trip to Yosemite for Memorial Day weekend. And back in late March, I had to cancel tickets I had to a concert. Do you think that was fun for me?

    I want this to end. It's not ending in the U.S. and it's not ending in Sweden. But some countries are halfway back to normal - and without the fear of a major second wave hitting them. I envy them.

    And we would be right where those few fortunate countries are at if people like you had listened to Cochran.

    Replies: @Peter Shaw, @UK

  164. @Pincher Martin
    @Peter Shaw


    I live in Australia which is following that idiots advice.
     
    Thank your lucky stars that your country's leaders are smarter than you are.

    You could be living in a place like the U.S., with its moderate patchwork of local lockdowns that have worked only moderately well, or you could be in Sweden which is dumb enough to try and go for herd immunity.

    Yes we have avoided some immediate deaths but we’ve cratered the economy FAR more than the USA...
     
    So far. Domestically, you Aussies are out of the mess. We in the U.S. are not out of it. So going forward you are in much better shape than we are in. That will help your growth and inhibit ours.

    Of course your economy will not come back all the way because, internationally, we still have a big problem. But I'm living in northern California and I still can't even go out to eat in public nor enter a store without a mask nor patronize retail centers in any routine way.

    Do you still have those problems? If not, then stop complaining.

    You comment about life expectancy shows your historical ignorance btw. Life expectancy went up every decade from 1900-1950. But guess which decade had the smallest increase, yep the 1930s. Guess what happened in 1939, yep WW2.
     
    For you Aussies, maybe, but for us Americans it did not begin until 1941.

    Replies: @Peter Shaw, @dfordoom

    like Cochran you are ignorant, perhaps wilfully, and display a assinine arrogance

    The lockdown here in Australia is harder than the USA. The only difference is we have basically no deaths (103 atm). We may eliminate it but then what. We shall have permanently closed borders and a economy that can never properly open up (the tourism and education industries are huge in this country) without coronavirus returning. If you can suggest a way out please tell me.

    Sweden has had 4K deaths with coronavirus. Overwhelmingly old and with comorbidities. They have never properly shut and can return to normalcy soon. Australia will have a low level lockdown for many years.

    What you won’t accept, not sure why, is that the economy is society. And when you shut it down bad things happen, every time. Life expectancy goes down (relatively), violence goes up, wars happen, our rights are trampled, depression rises etc. The coronavirus is small in comparison.

    To be fair most of the damage has already been done. But it was largely thanks to alarmist with no sense of historical perspective like you and Cochran.

    • Replies: @Steve Sailer
    @Peter Shaw

    Sweden hasn't gotten close to Herd Immunity yet. You'll notice that their officials aren't promising that anymore.

    , @Pincher Martin
    @Peter Shaw


    The lockdown here in Australia is harder than the USA. The only difference is we have basically no deaths (103 atm). We may eliminate it but then what. We shall have permanently closed borders and a economy that can never properly open up (the tourism and education industries are huge in this country) without coronavirus returning. If you can suggest a way out please tell me.
     
    You didn't answer my questions.

    Can you go out to dine at a restaurant? I can't.

    Can you go into an essential store without a mask? I can't

    Can you go into an enclosed retail center, which is not essential, like a mall? I can't.

    I can add others.

    Can you go out to the movies? I can't.

    Can you go to a park or beach without maintaining social distancing? I can't.

    As for your complaints - closed borders, depressed tourism and education businesses which cater to overseas students, etc. - those are the same everywhere. Sweden hasn't avoided closed borders, for example. Denmark shut down their bridge border. Sweden has also banned entry from travelers outside the E.U., specifically because of COVID-19.


    They [the Swedes] have never properly shut and can return to normalcy soon.
     
    No, they can't and they won't. Sweden's Central Bank is expecting a big hit to their economy this year. So what did all those dead get them?

    What you won’t accept, not sure why, is that the economy is society.
     
    Economies can bounce back from a lot worse than a two-month hiatus because society is malleable. At least temporarily. Dying is not. It's final. The notion that you were unwilling to shut down for two months to save 1% of your population is incredible to me, but I guess that's where we are. Some people are unwilling to make even tiny sacrifices for worthy causes.

    Replies: @Peter Shaw

  165. @Pincher Martin
    @Peter Shaw

    You contradict yourself.


    But the depression definitely reduced life expectancy. Probably about 1.5 years per person
     

    The 1930s had the smallest increase in life expectancy in the first half of the 20th century. In the 1920s life expectancy went up by almost 5 years. In the 30s, 2.5, in the 40s despite the world war almost 4 years.
     
    The Great Depression is generally thought to have lasted from October, 1929, to the beginning of WW2 in December 1941, so a good proxy for testing your thesis is to look at life expectancy from 1930 to 1940.

    And as you admit, life expectancy went up in that decade.

    Replies: @Peter Shaw

    Can you read?

    1930-1940 had the smallest life expectancy increase for any decade in the first half of the 20th century.

    Oh and then ww2 started.

    Looks like we might have depressions 2.0 shortly. This one created by people like you. I wonder what problems that will have in store for us.

    • Replies: @Pincher Martin
    @Peter Shaw

    I can read. I can also highlight what you wrote. You contradicted yourself. It's there in black and white. Or were you sleep-typing when you wrote this sentence: "But the depression definitely reduced life expectancy."

    There was nothing definite about it because it never happened.

    I also went to the trouble of looking up the life expectancy data for Australia, the UK, and the US since 1921. Here is my source.

    It would appear you are also full of shit about your new claim that life expectancy went up the least in the 1930s - except for the UK.

    Here are the numbers:

    1921, which is the first year for figures being available for all three countries (figure in parenthesis is for 1920 if available):

    Australia - 61.0 (n/a)

    U.K. - 58.1 (57.3)

    U.S. - 58.2 (55.4)

    1930:

    Australia - 64.9

    U.K. - 60.8

    U.S. - 59.6

    1940:

    Australia - 66.2

    U.K. - 60.9

    U.S. - 63.2

    1950:

    Australia - 68.8

    U.K. - 68.7

    U.S. - 68.2

    1960:

    Australia - 70.7

    U.K. - 70.9

    U.S. - 69.9

    1970:

    Australia - 71.2

    U.K. - 71.9

    U.S. - 70.8

    1980:

    Australia - 74.4

    U.K. - 73.6

    U.S. - 73.9

    1990:

    Australia - 76.9

    U.K. - 75.7

    U.S. - 75.2

    2000:

    Australia - 79.6

    U.K. - 77.8

    U.S. - 76.8

    2010:

    Australia - 81.9

    U.K. - 80.4

    U.S. - 78.7

    *****

    For the U.S., which is my country, life expectancy increased by 3.6 years in the nineteen-thirties. That's more than it increased during the 1950s (1.7), the 1960s (0.9), the 1970s (3.1), the 1980s (1.3), the 1990s (1.6), or the oughties (1.1). It is less of an increase, however, than for the 1920s (4.2) and the 1940s (5.0), which are the two decades which bracket it.

    For your country, Australia, life expectancy during the 1930s increased by 1.3 years. That's less than for any other decade except the 1960s, when it increased by only 0.5.

    The U.K. is the only country of the three which showed a smaller increase for life expectancy (0.1) during the 1930s than for any other decade.

    Any other bullshit you want to shovel my way?

    Replies: @Peter Shaw

  166. @utu
    @Peter Shaw

    "Please tell me how that elimination strategy is supposed to work, without completely shutting the borders indefinitely (or at least isolating all arrivals until tested)." - Not a question but a challenge in bad faith by globohomo communist who wants open borders to smuggle HIV in his rectum to every country in the world.

    For as long as virus is active in other countries you must control border traffic very tightly. Actually this is what every nationalist would pray to happen to assert sovereignty, border control and immigration policy reevaluation.

    To prevent the import of virus the visitors would be divided into several categories:

    (a) virus positive: sent back or quarantine
    (b) symptomatic: sent back or quarantine
    (c) anti-body positive can eneter
    (d) else: depends on country of origin, quarantine and tracing and testing every 5 days or refuse entry.

    Basic things that were done for centuries during contagions. This is what Ellis Island for. The UK, AUS and NZ always had very strict border crossing procedures.

    Replies: @Peter Shaw

    Firstly I’m not gay and even if I was so what. I’m not a globalist, and I’m pretty right wing in my politics. All of this irrelevant though just like your ridiculous ad hominem trolling

    Your proposal is unrealistic, I’m all for controlling borders but how are you going to screen everyone? Temperature is unreliable and has plenty of false positives. Administering blood tests at the airport, unrealistic. Quarantining people for days is also unrealistic. Testing at the country of departure unauditable.

    More importantly your proposal lacks historical perspective. You do know that those historical quarantining measures at the border largely did not work for respiratory diseases. The Spanish flu and other pandemics reached America, Australia etc. despite these measures.

  167. @Peter Shaw
    @Pincher Martin

    like Cochran you are ignorant, perhaps wilfully, and display a assinine arrogance

    The lockdown here in Australia is harder than the USA. The only difference is we have basically no deaths (103 atm). We may eliminate it but then what. We shall have permanently closed borders and a economy that can never properly open up (the tourism and education industries are huge in this country) without coronavirus returning. If you can suggest a way out please tell me.

    Sweden has had 4K deaths with coronavirus. Overwhelmingly old and with comorbidities. They have never properly shut and can return to normalcy soon. Australia will have a low level lockdown for many years.

    What you won’t accept, not sure why, is that the economy is society. And when you shut it down bad things happen, every time. Life expectancy goes down (relatively), violence goes up, wars happen, our rights are trampled, depression rises etc. The coronavirus is small in comparison.

    To be fair most of the damage has already been done. But it was largely thanks to alarmist with no sense of historical perspective like you and Cochran.

    Replies: @Steve Sailer, @Pincher Martin

    Sweden hasn’t gotten close to Herd Immunity yet. You’ll notice that their officials aren’t promising that anymore.

  168. 7.3% late April. So probably 10% now so agreed but herd immunity is probably 30%ish. The 70% being bandied around is ridiculous, most repiratory infections don’t get anything like that (Spanish flu reached 30%) and as I’ve said herd immunity is malleable and people are not fungible

    So yeah they have a ways to go but well on the way and it is trending down anyway.

    No one is claiming the herd immunity strategy btw but it is where we are headed so best to end this lockdown as now it’s just hurting freedom and the economy.

  169. @Pincher Martin
    @UK


    All of those people can do what they are doing now and isolate, if that is what they so choose.
     
    It's not so easy, as even a moment's thought would make obvious to someone who wasn't a moron. If only 1% of the population dies from this disease, probably more than 10% to 20% are in high-risk groups that *could* die from it.

    Are you an overweight 50-year-old male with hypertension and type-2 diabetes? You probably won't die from this disease, but you could. The risk isn't trivially small. And even if you don't die, you will most likely get awfully sick.

    If the U.S. has to cordon off every overweight 50-year-old with some persistent health problems, our economy will grind to a halt. What are employers supposed to do if these people say they need time off from work until herd immunity hits some months down the road? Fire them?

    Try to think before you type. It will improve the quality of your posts.

    Replies: @UK, @Steve Sailer

    What percentage of employers are under, say, 50?

    • Replies: @Pincher Martin
    @Steve Sailer

    I don't know the exact figure. But employers and top managers often don't hit their productive peak until their late forties and early fifties.

    And many of them aren't in the best of shape.

  170. @Pincher Martin
    @Peter Shaw


    I live in Australia which is following that idiots advice.
     
    Thank your lucky stars that your country's leaders are smarter than you are.

    You could be living in a place like the U.S., with its moderate patchwork of local lockdowns that have worked only moderately well, or you could be in Sweden which is dumb enough to try and go for herd immunity.

    Yes we have avoided some immediate deaths but we’ve cratered the economy FAR more than the USA...
     
    So far. Domestically, you Aussies are out of the mess. We in the U.S. are not out of it. So going forward you are in much better shape than we are in. That will help your growth and inhibit ours.

    Of course your economy will not come back all the way because, internationally, we still have a big problem. But I'm living in northern California and I still can't even go out to eat in public nor enter a store without a mask nor patronize retail centers in any routine way.

    Do you still have those problems? If not, then stop complaining.

    You comment about life expectancy shows your historical ignorance btw. Life expectancy went up every decade from 1900-1950. But guess which decade had the smallest increase, yep the 1930s. Guess what happened in 1939, yep WW2.
     
    For you Aussies, maybe, but for us Americans it did not begin until 1941.

    Replies: @Peter Shaw, @dfordoom

    So far. Domestically, you Aussies are out of the mess. We in the U.S. are not out of it. So going forward you are in much better shape than we are in. That will help your growth and inhibit ours.

    Yes. Australia now has options. The idea in both Australia and New Zealand seemed to be to get the economic pain over and done with as quickly as possible.

    • Agree: Pincher Martin
  171. @Peter Shaw
    @Pincher Martin

    Can you read?

    1930-1940 had the smallest life expectancy increase for any decade in the first half of the 20th century.

    Oh and then ww2 started.

    Looks like we might have depressions 2.0 shortly. This one created by people like you. I wonder what problems that will have in store for us.

    Replies: @Pincher Martin

    I can read. I can also highlight what you wrote. You contradicted yourself. It’s there in black and white. Or were you sleep-typing when you wrote this sentence: “But the depression definitely reduced life expectancy.”

    There was nothing definite about it because it never happened.

    I also went to the trouble of looking up the life expectancy data for Australia, the UK, and the US since 1921. Here is my source.

    It would appear you are also full of shit about your new claim that life expectancy went up the least in the 1930s – except for the UK.

    Here are the numbers:

    1921, which is the first year for figures being available for all three countries (figure in parenthesis is for 1920 if available):

    Australia – 61.0 (n/a)

    U.K. – 58.1 (57.3)

    U.S. – 58.2 (55.4)

    1930:

    Australia – 64.9

    U.K. – 60.8

    U.S. – 59.6

    1940:

    Australia – 66.2

    U.K. – 60.9

    U.S. – 63.2

    1950:

    Australia – 68.8

    U.K. – 68.7

    U.S. – 68.2

    1960:

    Australia – 70.7

    U.K. – 70.9

    U.S. – 69.9

    1970:

    Australia – 71.2

    U.K. – 71.9

    U.S. – 70.8

    1980:

    Australia – 74.4

    U.K. – 73.6

    U.S. – 73.9

    1990:

    Australia – 76.9

    U.K. – 75.7

    U.S. – 75.2

    2000:

    Australia – 79.6

    U.K. – 77.8

    U.S. – 76.8

    2010:

    Australia – 81.9

    U.K. – 80.4

    U.S. – 78.7

    *****

    For the U.S., which is my country, life expectancy increased by 3.6 years in the nineteen-thirties. That’s more than it increased during the 1950s (1.7), the 1960s (0.9), the 1970s (3.1), the 1980s (1.3), the 1990s (1.6), or the oughties (1.1). It is less of an increase, however, than for the 1920s (4.2) and the 1940s (5.0), which are the two decades which bracket it.

    For your country, Australia, life expectancy during the 1930s increased by 1.3 years. That’s less than for any other decade except the 1960s, when it increased by only 0.5.

    The U.K. is the only country of the three which showed a smaller increase for life expectancy (0.1) during the 1930s than for any other decade.

    Any other bullshit you want to shovel my way?

    • Replies: @Peter Shaw
    @Pincher Martin

    if you can read you would know I was talking about the first half of the twentieth century right? I did this as recent decades have had lower increases because of the law of of diminishing returns

    Let me spell it out for you aa clearly as possible as your comprehension is poor

    The 1930s had the lowest increase in life expectancy in the first half of the twentieth century. Your data backs this up and it is very clear

    If it had followed the trend the increase would have been at least two years more.

    My argument is, and most people would agree, that this was caused by the depression.

    Idiots like you are leading us into another depression and whilst I’m confident life expectancy around the world will be higher in 2030 than 2020 (even with the coming recession) even a 6 month reduction in the potential increase over billions of people makes this virus seem small.

    Replies: @Pincher Martin

  172. @Peter Shaw
    @Pincher Martin

    like Cochran you are ignorant, perhaps wilfully, and display a assinine arrogance

    The lockdown here in Australia is harder than the USA. The only difference is we have basically no deaths (103 atm). We may eliminate it but then what. We shall have permanently closed borders and a economy that can never properly open up (the tourism and education industries are huge in this country) without coronavirus returning. If you can suggest a way out please tell me.

    Sweden has had 4K deaths with coronavirus. Overwhelmingly old and with comorbidities. They have never properly shut and can return to normalcy soon. Australia will have a low level lockdown for many years.

    What you won’t accept, not sure why, is that the economy is society. And when you shut it down bad things happen, every time. Life expectancy goes down (relatively), violence goes up, wars happen, our rights are trampled, depression rises etc. The coronavirus is small in comparison.

    To be fair most of the damage has already been done. But it was largely thanks to alarmist with no sense of historical perspective like you and Cochran.

    Replies: @Steve Sailer, @Pincher Martin

    The lockdown here in Australia is harder than the USA. The only difference is we have basically no deaths (103 atm). We may eliminate it but then what. We shall have permanently closed borders and a economy that can never properly open up (the tourism and education industries are huge in this country) without coronavirus returning. If you can suggest a way out please tell me.

    You didn’t answer my questions.

    Can you go out to dine at a restaurant? I can’t.

    Can you go into an essential store without a mask? I can’t

    Can you go into an enclosed retail center, which is not essential, like a mall? I can’t.

    I can add others.

    Can you go out to the movies? I can’t.

    Can you go to a park or beach without maintaining social distancing? I can’t.

    As for your complaints – closed borders, depressed tourism and education businesses which cater to overseas students, etc. – those are the same everywhere. Sweden hasn’t avoided closed borders, for example. Denmark shut down their bridge border. Sweden has also banned entry from travelers outside the E.U., specifically because of COVID-19.

    They [the Swedes] have never properly shut and can return to normalcy soon.

    No, they can’t and they won’t. Sweden’s Central Bank is expecting a big hit to their economy this year. So what did all those dead get them?

    What you won’t accept, not sure why, is that the economy is society.

    Economies can bounce back from a lot worse than a two-month hiatus because society is malleable. At least temporarily. Dying is not. It’s final. The notion that you were unwilling to shut down for two months to save 1% of your population is incredible to me, but I guess that’s where we are. Some people are unwilling to make even tiny sacrifices for worthy causes.

    • Replies: @Peter Shaw
    @Pincher Martin

    Again you are assinine in your ignorance.

    I can’t do any of these things, excepting the mask part (they never caught on here despite being a likely sensible measure). Plus I can’t travel to other parts of the country and schools are shut (although they are opening now)

    Unlike the USA this is throughout Australia and has been since mid March (although it is easing now).

    As I said whilst though there is no path from here for opening the borders nor preventing the loss of rights and the economic collapse will be far worse here than the USA. The only silver lining is that we are a rich country and have had semi prudent economic management leading into this.

    Sweden is heading towards losing 0.1 % of its population (0.04% atm). They never shut down and can bounce straight back. So again you are peddling alarmist humbug with no sense of perspective, in the this destroys the economy and costs lives

    Replies: @Steve Sailer, @Pincher Martin

  173. @Steve Sailer
    @Pincher Martin

    What percentage of employers are under, say, 50?

    Replies: @Pincher Martin

    I don’t know the exact figure. But employers and top managers often don’t hit their productive peak until their late forties and early fifties.

    And many of them aren’t in the best of shape.

  174. @UK
    @Pincher Martin

    Divide the number who dies by at least 5. Even the CDC is practically at that estimation now.

    Anyway, bore off with your nonsense. You decry a small percentage of people isolating because it'll be bad for the country while therefore implicitly supporting almost everyone isolating instead. And, most bizarrely, the latter with no planned end...

    Replies: @Pincher Martin

    Divide the number who dies by at least 5. Even the CDC is practically at that estimation now.

    Prove it. Show me where the CDC says that COVID-19 is only twice as deadly as the flu.

    And, most bizarrely, the latter with no planned end…

    Oh, no. I want it to end. That’s why I’m envious of countries like Taiwan, Hong Kong, Australia, New Zealand, etc., because they are well on the road back to normalcy. I want to go to restaurants again. I want to go to the gym. I want to go to the cinema and see the summer blockbusters. I want to go to the mall with my wife. I want to watch sporting events. I had to cancel my trip to Yosemite for Memorial Day weekend. And back in late March, I had to cancel tickets I had to a concert. Do you think that was fun for me?

    I want this to end. It’s not ending in the U.S. and it’s not ending in Sweden. But some countries are halfway back to normal – and without the fear of a major second wave hitting them. I envy them.

    And we would be right where those few fortunate countries are at if people like you had listened to Cochran.

    • Replies: @Peter Shaw
    @Pincher Martin

    Australia and New Zealand are unfortunate for following a flawed strategy which might look good now but in the absence of a vaccine has no path to resolution.

    Both are small open economies with huge education and tourism sectors. In Australian tourism is 9% and education almost 6%. In NZ tourism is 22% and I expect education would also be around 5% (I can’t find the figures).


    For NZ in particular it is open up go broke.

    Replies: @Steve Sailer, @Pincher Martin

    , @UK
    @Pincher Martin

    They aren't near its ending. They just postponed its start. Except maybe New Zealand, with its extreme space, extreme distance from everywhere and airtight borders, will be able to totally isolate itself from the world. Everywhere else will see outbreaks on and off forever. And therefore lockdowns off and on forever.

    Oh you may argue that each one might be fairly minor in that they are "tracked and traced" in the a total 1984 system and so only require regional shutdowns and for a week here and there but it will destroy each country just the same...and there'll be flair ups just as big..at points anyway.

    It is bad news but lockdown leads to lockdown which leads to lockdown.

    There'll also be other costs. In NZ the police can now enter your home because "Covid" and with no warrant. Maybe it'll be ok for that small country but it is hardly a positive development.

    As for the CDC's stats...it was reported a bit and is on their website...though lost in huge reams of text.

    https://in.dental-tribune.com/news/new-estimate-by-the-cdc-brings-down-the-covid-19-death-rate-to-just-0-26-as-against-whos-3-4/

    Replies: @Pincher Martin

  175. @Pincher Martin
    @Peter Shaw

    I can read. I can also highlight what you wrote. You contradicted yourself. It's there in black and white. Or were you sleep-typing when you wrote this sentence: "But the depression definitely reduced life expectancy."

    There was nothing definite about it because it never happened.

    I also went to the trouble of looking up the life expectancy data for Australia, the UK, and the US since 1921. Here is my source.

    It would appear you are also full of shit about your new claim that life expectancy went up the least in the 1930s - except for the UK.

    Here are the numbers:

    1921, which is the first year for figures being available for all three countries (figure in parenthesis is for 1920 if available):

    Australia - 61.0 (n/a)

    U.K. - 58.1 (57.3)

    U.S. - 58.2 (55.4)

    1930:

    Australia - 64.9

    U.K. - 60.8

    U.S. - 59.6

    1940:

    Australia - 66.2

    U.K. - 60.9

    U.S. - 63.2

    1950:

    Australia - 68.8

    U.K. - 68.7

    U.S. - 68.2

    1960:

    Australia - 70.7

    U.K. - 70.9

    U.S. - 69.9

    1970:

    Australia - 71.2

    U.K. - 71.9

    U.S. - 70.8

    1980:

    Australia - 74.4

    U.K. - 73.6

    U.S. - 73.9

    1990:

    Australia - 76.9

    U.K. - 75.7

    U.S. - 75.2

    2000:

    Australia - 79.6

    U.K. - 77.8

    U.S. - 76.8

    2010:

    Australia - 81.9

    U.K. - 80.4

    U.S. - 78.7

    *****

    For the U.S., which is my country, life expectancy increased by 3.6 years in the nineteen-thirties. That's more than it increased during the 1950s (1.7), the 1960s (0.9), the 1970s (3.1), the 1980s (1.3), the 1990s (1.6), or the oughties (1.1). It is less of an increase, however, than for the 1920s (4.2) and the 1940s (5.0), which are the two decades which bracket it.

    For your country, Australia, life expectancy during the 1930s increased by 1.3 years. That's less than for any other decade except the 1960s, when it increased by only 0.5.

    The U.K. is the only country of the three which showed a smaller increase for life expectancy (0.1) during the 1930s than for any other decade.

    Any other bullshit you want to shovel my way?

    Replies: @Peter Shaw

    if you can read you would know I was talking about the first half of the twentieth century right? I did this as recent decades have had lower increases because of the law of of diminishing returns

    Let me spell it out for you aa clearly as possible as your comprehension is poor

    The 1930s had the lowest increase in life expectancy in the first half of the twentieth century. Your data backs this up and it is very clear

    If it had followed the trend the increase would have been at least two years more.

    My argument is, and most people would agree, that this was caused by the depression.

    Idiots like you are leading us into another depression and whilst I’m confident life expectancy around the world will be higher in 2030 than 2020 (even with the coming recession) even a 6 month reduction in the potential increase over billions of people makes this virus seem small.

    • Replies: @Pincher Martin
    @Peter Shaw


    if you can read you would know I was talking about the first half of the twentieth century right? I did this as recent decades have had lower increases because of the law of of diminishing returns
     
    You're right, Peter. I owe you an apology. I did not make note of your qualification.

    However, your comment, even when the qualification is taken into consideration, is still too arbitrary and unclear to take seriously.

    So this comment of yours ...


    The 1930s had the lowest increase in life expectancy in the first half of the twentieth century. Your data backs this up and it is very clear.
     
    ... is not true.


    For one thing, much of the data from the early 20th century is spotty. We can't measure life expectancy for some of those years in either Australia or the U.S., even if the U.K.'s data seem to be complete.

    And why is it okay to compare life expectancy from the 1930s to the decade of the 1900s, but not to the 1950s - a decade to which the thirties is closer in time?

    Finally, there isn't a lot of difference in the U.S. between many of those decades even when we do have the data.

    For example, here is the increase in U.S. life expectancy for the first five decades of the 20th century.

    1901-1910 (no data for the year 1900) - 2.5 years

    1910-1920 - 3.6 years

    1920-1930 - 4.2 years

    1930-1940 - 3.6 years

    1940-1950 - 5.0 years

    So in the U.S. at least, life expectancy did not go down in the nineteen-thirties, but the figure in that decade is also at least as high as either of the two decades from 1901 to 1920, and it's much closer than one would expect to the roaring twenties.

    Only the life expectancy in the 1940s clearly outdistances that of the 1930s, which I guess according to your logic means we ought to fight world wars more often.


    Idiots like you are leading us into another depression and whilst I’m confident life expectancy around the world will be higher in 2030 than 2020 (even with the coming recession) even a 6 month reduction in the potential increase over billions of people makes this virus seem small.
     
    The problem is the virus, not the lockdown. And if we don't take care of the virus, the economy will not bounce back anytime soon. People like you are preventing that from happening.

    You owe Cochran an apology.

  176. @Pincher Martin
    @Peter Shaw


    The lockdown here in Australia is harder than the USA. The only difference is we have basically no deaths (103 atm). We may eliminate it but then what. We shall have permanently closed borders and a economy that can never properly open up (the tourism and education industries are huge in this country) without coronavirus returning. If you can suggest a way out please tell me.
     
    You didn't answer my questions.

    Can you go out to dine at a restaurant? I can't.

    Can you go into an essential store without a mask? I can't

    Can you go into an enclosed retail center, which is not essential, like a mall? I can't.

    I can add others.

    Can you go out to the movies? I can't.

    Can you go to a park or beach without maintaining social distancing? I can't.

    As for your complaints - closed borders, depressed tourism and education businesses which cater to overseas students, etc. - those are the same everywhere. Sweden hasn't avoided closed borders, for example. Denmark shut down their bridge border. Sweden has also banned entry from travelers outside the E.U., specifically because of COVID-19.


    They [the Swedes] have never properly shut and can return to normalcy soon.
     
    No, they can't and they won't. Sweden's Central Bank is expecting a big hit to their economy this year. So what did all those dead get them?

    What you won’t accept, not sure why, is that the economy is society.
     
    Economies can bounce back from a lot worse than a two-month hiatus because society is malleable. At least temporarily. Dying is not. It's final. The notion that you were unwilling to shut down for two months to save 1% of your population is incredible to me, but I guess that's where we are. Some people are unwilling to make even tiny sacrifices for worthy causes.

    Replies: @Peter Shaw

    Again you are assinine in your ignorance.

    I can’t do any of these things, excepting the mask part (they never caught on here despite being a likely sensible measure). Plus I can’t travel to other parts of the country and schools are shut (although they are opening now)

    Unlike the USA this is throughout Australia and has been since mid March (although it is easing now).

    As I said whilst though there is no path from here for opening the borders nor preventing the loss of rights and the economic collapse will be far worse here than the USA. The only silver lining is that we are a rich country and have had semi prudent economic management leading into this.

    Sweden is heading towards losing 0.1 % of its population (0.04% atm). They never shut down and can bounce straight back. So again you are peddling alarmist humbug with no sense of perspective, in the this destroys the economy and costs lives

    • Replies: @Steve Sailer
    @Peter Shaw

    When is Sweden going to announce actual data supporting its confident predictions in April that it would be already closing in on Herd Immunity by May 1. It's now May 26.

    Replies: @Peter Shaw

    , @Pincher Martin
    @Peter Shaw


    I can’t do any of these things, excepting the mask part (they never caught on here despite being a likely sensible measure). Plus I can’t travel to other parts of the country and schools are shut (although they are opening now)
     
    You can't go to a restaurant in Australia?

    Are these articles lying?

    Australia reopens restaurants, bars, with a warning to be cautious (10 days ago)

    Diners cautious as Western Australia’s cafes and restaurants re-open (8 days ago)

    The road out begins: Australia's restaurants and cafes open their doors to the first customers at the stroke of midnight under strict 10-person rule (12 days ago)


    Unlike the USA this is throughout Australia and has been since mid March (although it is easing now).
     
    Good. The U.S. should've done the same thing.

    I live in the Silicon Valley, which is an hour's drive south of San Francisco and part of the Bay Area. We've been under a fairly strict shelter-in-place order since March 16th which is only now just easing. The order was very successful in saving lives. Only 40 people have died in San Francisco of COVID-19, for example, which ought to be cause for celebration because the city is the second densest in America and does everything it can to discourage cars and encourage mass transit.

    But because much of the country has taken a more relaxed view of the coronavirus, all our efforts in the Bay Area are likely to be wasted. As soon as we drop our shelter-in-place order and go back to business as normal (which will have to be soon because everyone is suffering from lockdown fatigue) the virus will come right back in - not brought across our borders by dastardly foreigners, but delivered by fellow Americans.

    Australia's leadership must've recognized this potential problem early and took steps to make sure it wouldn't happen. Good for them. If only America had a similar unity in purpose.


    As I said whilst though there is no path from here for opening the borders nor preventing the loss of rights and the economic collapse will be far worse here than the USA.
     
    Borders are easy to monitor. Especially for Australia. You can immediately open up to New Zealand, Japan, Taiwan, Hong Kong, South Korea, Singapore, etc. without any fear at all. And for the rest of the countries, you just need to establish some testing and quarantine facilities at your airports and ports, which ought to be easy enough to do.

    Sweden is heading towards losing 0.1 % of its population (0.04% atm). They never shut down and can bounce straight back.
     
    Complete utter nonsense. Not even the Swedes believe this.

    Replies: @Peter Shaw

  177. @Pincher Martin
    @UK


    Divide the number who dies by at least 5. Even the CDC is practically at that estimation now.
     
    Prove it. Show me where the CDC says that COVID-19 is only twice as deadly as the flu.

    And, most bizarrely, the latter with no planned end…
     
    Oh, no. I want it to end. That's why I'm envious of countries like Taiwan, Hong Kong, Australia, New Zealand, etc., because they are well on the road back to normalcy. I want to go to restaurants again. I want to go to the gym. I want to go to the cinema and see the summer blockbusters. I want to go to the mall with my wife. I want to watch sporting events. I had to cancel my trip to Yosemite for Memorial Day weekend. And back in late March, I had to cancel tickets I had to a concert. Do you think that was fun for me?

    I want this to end. It's not ending in the U.S. and it's not ending in Sweden. But some countries are halfway back to normal - and without the fear of a major second wave hitting them. I envy them.

    And we would be right where those few fortunate countries are at if people like you had listened to Cochran.

    Replies: @Peter Shaw, @UK

    Australia and New Zealand are unfortunate for following a flawed strategy which might look good now but in the absence of a vaccine has no path to resolution.

    Both are small open economies with huge education and tourism sectors. In Australian tourism is 9% and education almost 6%. In NZ tourism is 22% and I expect education would also be around 5% (I can’t find the figures).

    For NZ in particular it is open up go broke.

    • Replies: @Steve Sailer
    @Peter Shaw

    How many tourists would New Zealand get this year with a different strategy?

    Replies: @Peter Shaw

    , @Pincher Martin
    @Peter Shaw


    Australia and New Zealand are unfortunate for following a flawed strategy which might look good now but in the absence of a vaccine has no path to resolution.
     
    Killing off one percent of your population is no resolution.

    As for short-term steps back to normalcy, I've already mentioned the numerous wealthy countries and cities which are all in the regional neighborhood of the Antipodes. Australia could likely open up with those economies within a couple of weeks and not suffer from it.


    Both are small open economies with huge education and tourism sectors. In Australian tourism is 9% and education almost 6%. In NZ tourism is 22% and I expect education would also be around 5% (I can’t find the figures).
     
    Tourism is not going to be easy for any country for a while. Sweden is not being inundated with tourists right now.

    But how much of New Zealand's tourism is driven by Australia, Japan, Taiwan, Hong Kong, Singapore, South Korea, and other countries in the region who are almost virus-free? That should help to mitigate some of the damage. Especially since the citizens of those countries who want to travel can't go to the U.S. or Europe right now.

  178. @Peter Shaw
    @Pincher Martin

    Australia and New Zealand are unfortunate for following a flawed strategy which might look good now but in the absence of a vaccine has no path to resolution.

    Both are small open economies with huge education and tourism sectors. In Australian tourism is 9% and education almost 6%. In NZ tourism is 22% and I expect education would also be around 5% (I can’t find the figures).


    For NZ in particular it is open up go broke.

    Replies: @Steve Sailer, @Pincher Martin

    How many tourists would New Zealand get this year with a different strategy?

    • Replies: @Peter Shaw
    @Steve Sailer

    In the short term very few

    @UK

    In the medium term New Zealand will have to open up and take the tourists, students, and the virus, or go broke.

    Replies: @Steve Sailer

  179. @Peter Shaw
    @Pincher Martin

    Again you are assinine in your ignorance.

    I can’t do any of these things, excepting the mask part (they never caught on here despite being a likely sensible measure). Plus I can’t travel to other parts of the country and schools are shut (although they are opening now)

    Unlike the USA this is throughout Australia and has been since mid March (although it is easing now).

    As I said whilst though there is no path from here for opening the borders nor preventing the loss of rights and the economic collapse will be far worse here than the USA. The only silver lining is that we are a rich country and have had semi prudent economic management leading into this.

    Sweden is heading towards losing 0.1 % of its population (0.04% atm). They never shut down and can bounce straight back. So again you are peddling alarmist humbug with no sense of perspective, in the this destroys the economy and costs lives

    Replies: @Steve Sailer, @Pincher Martin

    When is Sweden going to announce actual data supporting its confident predictions in April that it would be already closing in on Herd Immunity by May 1. It’s now May 26.

    • Replies: @Peter Shaw
    @Steve Sailer

    I don't know

  180. UK says:
    @Pincher Martin
    @UK


    Divide the number who dies by at least 5. Even the CDC is practically at that estimation now.
     
    Prove it. Show me where the CDC says that COVID-19 is only twice as deadly as the flu.

    And, most bizarrely, the latter with no planned end…
     
    Oh, no. I want it to end. That's why I'm envious of countries like Taiwan, Hong Kong, Australia, New Zealand, etc., because they are well on the road back to normalcy. I want to go to restaurants again. I want to go to the gym. I want to go to the cinema and see the summer blockbusters. I want to go to the mall with my wife. I want to watch sporting events. I had to cancel my trip to Yosemite for Memorial Day weekend. And back in late March, I had to cancel tickets I had to a concert. Do you think that was fun for me?

    I want this to end. It's not ending in the U.S. and it's not ending in Sweden. But some countries are halfway back to normal - and without the fear of a major second wave hitting them. I envy them.

    And we would be right where those few fortunate countries are at if people like you had listened to Cochran.

    Replies: @Peter Shaw, @UK

    They aren’t near its ending. They just postponed its start. Except maybe New Zealand, with its extreme space, extreme distance from everywhere and airtight borders, will be able to totally isolate itself from the world. Everywhere else will see outbreaks on and off forever. And therefore lockdowns off and on forever.

    Oh you may argue that each one might be fairly minor in that they are “tracked and traced” in the a total 1984 system and so only require regional shutdowns and for a week here and there but it will destroy each country just the same…and there’ll be flair ups just as big..at points anyway.

    It is bad news but lockdown leads to lockdown which leads to lockdown.

    There’ll also be other costs. In NZ the police can now enter your home because “Covid” and with no warrant. Maybe it’ll be ok for that small country but it is hardly a positive development.

    As for the CDC’s stats…it was reported a bit and is on their website…though lost in huge reams of text.

    https://in.dental-tribune.com/news/new-estimate-by-the-cdc-brings-down-the-covid-19-death-rate-to-just-0-26-as-against-whos-3-4/

    • Replies: @Pincher Martin
    @UK


    They aren’t near its ending. They just postponed its start. Except maybe New Zealand, with its extreme space, extreme distance from everywhere and airtight borders, will be able to totally isolate itself from the world. Everywhere else will see outbreaks on and off forever. And therefore lockdowns off and on forever.
     
    That scenario is much more likely for the U.S.

    First, Australia and New Zealand can both open up to not only each other, but to the numerous countries in the Asia-Pacific region which are nearly virus-free and seem determined to stay that way.

    Those countries include Japan, South Korea, Hong Kong, Singapore, and Taiwan. That's a hefty chunk of virus-free GDP to which those two countries can have frictionless movement between them. I would bet there are numerous small island nations in the Pacific which are also virus-free. And as other countries demonstrate they are virus-free, they can also be added to this list.

    Second, controlling the virus at the borders is much easier to do than controlling it within your borders. Border control authorities are free to invade the privacy of people who enter their country by verifying where they are staying, studying their passport to see if they have been in any hot zones, and getting enough data to track and trace their movements in the country. Harder to do that with your own citizens than with foreign nationals.


    There’ll also be other costs. In NZ the police can now enter your home because “Covid” and with no warrant. Maybe it’ll be ok for that small country but it is hardly a positive development.
     
    Yeah, those fascist Kiwis. They are always looking for some excuse to break down doors and roust good citizens out of hearth and home.

    As for the CDC’s stats…it was reported a bit and is on their website…though lost in huge reams of text.

    https://in.dental-tribune.com/news/new-estimate-by-the-cdc-brings-down-the-covid-19-death-rate-to-just-0-26-as-against-whos-3-4/
     

    Thanks for the link, I guess. The Dental Tribune?

    That's a sloppy case of propaganda, but at least you provided a source. It's incredible that you would believe it after witnessing what happened in New York and northern Italy.

    Replies: @UK, @dfordoom

  181. @Steve Sailer
    @Peter Shaw

    How many tourists would New Zealand get this year with a different strategy?

    Replies: @Peter Shaw

    In the short term very few

    In the medium term New Zealand will have to open up and take the tourists, students, and the virus, or go broke.

    • Replies: @Steve Sailer
    @Peter Shaw

    What's so hard about buying a $50k testing machine and installing it at LAX's Air New Zealand terminal?

    Replies: @Peter Shaw, @anon

  182. @Steve Sailer
    @Peter Shaw

    When is Sweden going to announce actual data supporting its confident predictions in April that it would be already closing in on Herd Immunity by May 1. It's now May 26.

    Replies: @Peter Shaw

    I don’t know

  183. @Peter Shaw
    @Steve Sailer

    In the short term very few

    @UK

    In the medium term New Zealand will have to open up and take the tourists, students, and the virus, or go broke.

    Replies: @Steve Sailer

    What’s so hard about buying a $50k testing machine and installing it at LAX’s Air New Zealand terminal?

    • Agree: dfordoom
    • Replies: @Peter Shaw
    @Steve Sailer

    I’m not sure why you think it could be done in the departures terminal (that would not work at all).

    Any testing would have to be done on arrival and close to 100% effect and the results available immediately. I’m pretty sure this does not exist especially as passengers are highly likely to have caught it en route so may not have any symptoms or antibodies

    Any system would also have to be implemented in Australia and NZ as traditionally citizens of both have free movement.

    , @anon
    @Steve Sailer

    There's precedent in the customs world. When I rode the Chunnel from Paris I went though UK customs in Gare du Nord, then was herded into a sealed waiting area that is de facto "UK territory". The train leaves Paris and makes no stops until arriving in London.

    Flying back from Canada a few years ago we went through US customs in Calgary, complete with US officials, then were cleared to go sit by the jetway. Arrival in the US airport was just like a domestic flight.

    So to return to Steve's question: Air KiWi could just have a two part waiting area, one part for testing and the other part for tested. Sure, it would cost more per airport. The Ellis Island complex wasn't cheap either.

    Replies: @Peter Shaw

  184. @Peter Shaw
    @Pincher Martin

    if you can read you would know I was talking about the first half of the twentieth century right? I did this as recent decades have had lower increases because of the law of of diminishing returns

    Let me spell it out for you aa clearly as possible as your comprehension is poor

    The 1930s had the lowest increase in life expectancy in the first half of the twentieth century. Your data backs this up and it is very clear

    If it had followed the trend the increase would have been at least two years more.

    My argument is, and most people would agree, that this was caused by the depression.

    Idiots like you are leading us into another depression and whilst I’m confident life expectancy around the world will be higher in 2030 than 2020 (even with the coming recession) even a 6 month reduction in the potential increase over billions of people makes this virus seem small.

    Replies: @Pincher Martin

    if you can read you would know I was talking about the first half of the twentieth century right? I did this as recent decades have had lower increases because of the law of of diminishing returns

    You’re right, Peter. I owe you an apology. I did not make note of your qualification.

    However, your comment, even when the qualification is taken into consideration, is still too arbitrary and unclear to take seriously.

    So this comment of yours …

    The 1930s had the lowest increase in life expectancy in the first half of the twentieth century. Your data backs this up and it is very clear.

    … is not true.

    For one thing, much of the data from the early 20th century is spotty. We can’t measure life expectancy for some of those years in either Australia or the U.S., even if the U.K.’s data seem to be complete.

    And why is it okay to compare life expectancy from the 1930s to the decade of the 1900s, but not to the 1950s – a decade to which the thirties is closer in time?

    Finally, there isn’t a lot of difference in the U.S. between many of those decades even when we do have the data.

    For example, here is the increase in U.S. life expectancy for the first five decades of the 20th century.

    1901-1910 (no data for the year 1900) – 2.5 years

    1910-1920 – 3.6 years

    1920-1930 – 4.2 years

    1930-1940 – 3.6 years

    1940-1950 – 5.0 years

    So in the U.S. at least, life expectancy did not go down in the nineteen-thirties, but the figure in that decade is also at least as high as either of the two decades from 1901 to 1920, and it’s much closer than one would expect to the roaring twenties.

    Only the life expectancy in the 1940s clearly outdistances that of the 1930s, which I guess according to your logic means we ought to fight world wars more often.

    Idiots like you are leading us into another depression and whilst I’m confident life expectancy around the world will be higher in 2030 than 2020 (even with the coming recession) even a 6 month reduction in the potential increase over billions of people makes this virus seem small.

    The problem is the virus, not the lockdown. And if we don’t take care of the virus, the economy will not bounce back anytime soon. People like you are preventing that from happening.

    You owe Cochran an apology.

  185. @Peter Shaw
    @Pincher Martin

    Again you are assinine in your ignorance.

    I can’t do any of these things, excepting the mask part (they never caught on here despite being a likely sensible measure). Plus I can’t travel to other parts of the country and schools are shut (although they are opening now)

    Unlike the USA this is throughout Australia and has been since mid March (although it is easing now).

    As I said whilst though there is no path from here for opening the borders nor preventing the loss of rights and the economic collapse will be far worse here than the USA. The only silver lining is that we are a rich country and have had semi prudent economic management leading into this.

    Sweden is heading towards losing 0.1 % of its population (0.04% atm). They never shut down and can bounce straight back. So again you are peddling alarmist humbug with no sense of perspective, in the this destroys the economy and costs lives

    Replies: @Steve Sailer, @Pincher Martin

    I can’t do any of these things, excepting the mask part (they never caught on here despite being a likely sensible measure). Plus I can’t travel to other parts of the country and schools are shut (although they are opening now)

    You can’t go to a restaurant in Australia?

    Are these articles lying?

    Australia reopens restaurants, bars, with a warning to be cautious (10 days ago)

    Diners cautious as Western Australia’s cafes and restaurants re-open (8 days ago)

    The road out begins: Australia’s restaurants and cafes open their doors to the first customers at the stroke of midnight under strict 10-person rule (12 days ago)

    Unlike the USA this is throughout Australia and has been since mid March (although it is easing now).

    Good. The U.S. should’ve done the same thing.

    I live in the Silicon Valley, which is an hour’s drive south of San Francisco and part of the Bay Area. We’ve been under a fairly strict shelter-in-place order since March 16th which is only now just easing. The order was very successful in saving lives. Only 40 people have died in San Francisco of COVID-19, for example, which ought to be cause for celebration because the city is the second densest in America and does everything it can to discourage cars and encourage mass transit.

    But because much of the country has taken a more relaxed view of the coronavirus, all our efforts in the Bay Area are likely to be wasted. As soon as we drop our shelter-in-place order and go back to business as normal (which will have to be soon because everyone is suffering from lockdown fatigue) the virus will come right back in – not brought across our borders by dastardly foreigners, but delivered by fellow Americans.

    Australia’s leadership must’ve recognized this potential problem early and took steps to make sure it wouldn’t happen. Good for them. If only America had a similar unity in purpose.

    As I said whilst though there is no path from here for opening the borders nor preventing the loss of rights and the economic collapse will be far worse here than the USA.

    Borders are easy to monitor. Especially for Australia. You can immediately open up to New Zealand, Japan, Taiwan, Hong Kong, South Korea, Singapore, etc. without any fear at all. And for the rest of the countries, you just need to establish some testing and quarantine facilities at your airports and ports, which ought to be easy enough to do.

    Sweden is heading towards losing 0.1 % of its population (0.04% atm). They never shut down and can bounce straight back.

    Complete utter nonsense. Not even the Swedes believe this.

    • Replies: @Peter Shaw
    @Pincher Martin

    The articles are not lying. Everything locked down at similar times but different states are opening up at different times.

    No restaurants or the theatre here, but at most primary school kids went back today.

    Your idea of effective screening at airports is laughable. Any testing would have to be 100% effective, have negligible false positives and be almost immediate. Considering the best place to catch coronavirus is probably an airport en route testing can’t be 100% by definition

    Re Sweden the graph is heading down, they are so it’s probably less than 0.1% but even if it was worst case based on the ridiculous assumptions common to people like you it might get to 0.2% who could die with (not from).

    Replies: @Pincher Martin

  186. @UK
    @Pincher Martin

    They aren't near its ending. They just postponed its start. Except maybe New Zealand, with its extreme space, extreme distance from everywhere and airtight borders, will be able to totally isolate itself from the world. Everywhere else will see outbreaks on and off forever. And therefore lockdowns off and on forever.

    Oh you may argue that each one might be fairly minor in that they are "tracked and traced" in the a total 1984 system and so only require regional shutdowns and for a week here and there but it will destroy each country just the same...and there'll be flair ups just as big..at points anyway.

    It is bad news but lockdown leads to lockdown which leads to lockdown.

    There'll also be other costs. In NZ the police can now enter your home because "Covid" and with no warrant. Maybe it'll be ok for that small country but it is hardly a positive development.

    As for the CDC's stats...it was reported a bit and is on their website...though lost in huge reams of text.

    https://in.dental-tribune.com/news/new-estimate-by-the-cdc-brings-down-the-covid-19-death-rate-to-just-0-26-as-against-whos-3-4/

    Replies: @Pincher Martin

    They aren’t near its ending. They just postponed its start. Except maybe New Zealand, with its extreme space, extreme distance from everywhere and airtight borders, will be able to totally isolate itself from the world. Everywhere else will see outbreaks on and off forever. And therefore lockdowns off and on forever.

    That scenario is much more likely for the U.S.

    First, Australia and New Zealand can both open up to not only each other, but to the numerous countries in the Asia-Pacific region which are nearly virus-free and seem determined to stay that way.

    Those countries include Japan, South Korea, Hong Kong, Singapore, and Taiwan. That’s a hefty chunk of virus-free GDP to which those two countries can have frictionless movement between them. I would bet there are numerous small island nations in the Pacific which are also virus-free. And as other countries demonstrate they are virus-free, they can also be added to this list.

    Second, controlling the virus at the borders is much easier to do than controlling it within your borders. Border control authorities are free to invade the privacy of people who enter their country by verifying where they are staying, studying their passport to see if they have been in any hot zones, and getting enough data to track and trace their movements in the country. Harder to do that with your own citizens than with foreign nationals.

    There’ll also be other costs. In NZ the police can now enter your home because “Covid” and with no warrant. Maybe it’ll be ok for that small country but it is hardly a positive development.

    Yeah, those fascist Kiwis. They are always looking for some excuse to break down doors and roust good citizens out of hearth and home.

    As for the CDC’s stats…it was reported a bit and is on their website…though lost in huge reams of text.

    https://in.dental-tribune.com/news/new-estimate-by-the-cdc-brings-down-the-covid-19-death-rate-to-just-0-26-as-against-whos-3-4/

    Thanks for the link, I guess. The Dental Tribune?

    That’s a sloppy case of propaganda, but at least you provided a source. It’s incredible that you would believe it after witnessing what happened in New York and northern Italy.

    • Replies: @UK
    @Pincher Martin

    It's a direct take from the CDC's webpage...I just can't highlight the section and make them summarise it for you. Here's another third party summary you might engage with rather than just sticking your head in the ground.

    https://reason.com/2020/05/24/the-cdcs-new-best-estimate-implies-a-covid-19-infection-fatality-rate-below-0-3/


    Anyway, you seem not to realise that all of the countries you have named are either still locked down to a degree far more than many US states ever were or have reimposed lockdowns and will be continuing to do so...endlessly, it seems.

    Replies: @Pincher Martin

    , @dfordoom
    @Pincher Martin


    Second, controlling the virus at the borders is much easier to do than controlling it within your borders.
     
    Which is such an obvious point that it amazes me that many people can't see it.
  187. @Steve Sailer
    @Peter Shaw

    What's so hard about buying a $50k testing machine and installing it at LAX's Air New Zealand terminal?

    Replies: @Peter Shaw, @anon

    I’m not sure why you think it could be done in the departures terminal (that would not work at all).

    Any testing would have to be done on arrival and close to 100% effect and the results available immediately. I’m pretty sure this does not exist especially as passengers are highly likely to have caught it en route so may not have any symptoms or antibodies

    Any system would also have to be implemented in Australia and NZ as traditionally citizens of both have free movement.

  188. @Peter Shaw
    @Pincher Martin

    Australia and New Zealand are unfortunate for following a flawed strategy which might look good now but in the absence of a vaccine has no path to resolution.

    Both are small open economies with huge education and tourism sectors. In Australian tourism is 9% and education almost 6%. In NZ tourism is 22% and I expect education would also be around 5% (I can’t find the figures).


    For NZ in particular it is open up go broke.

    Replies: @Steve Sailer, @Pincher Martin

    Australia and New Zealand are unfortunate for following a flawed strategy which might look good now but in the absence of a vaccine has no path to resolution.

    Killing off one percent of your population is no resolution.

    As for short-term steps back to normalcy, I’ve already mentioned the numerous wealthy countries and cities which are all in the regional neighborhood of the Antipodes. Australia could likely open up with those economies within a couple of weeks and not suffer from it.

    Both are small open economies with huge education and tourism sectors. In Australian tourism is 9% and education almost 6%. In NZ tourism is 22% and I expect education would also be around 5% (I can’t find the figures).

    Tourism is not going to be easy for any country for a while. Sweden is not being inundated with tourists right now.

    But how much of New Zealand’s tourism is driven by Australia, Japan, Taiwan, Hong Kong, Singapore, South Korea, and other countries in the region who are almost virus-free? That should help to mitigate some of the damage. Especially since the citizens of those countries who want to travel can’t go to the U.S. or Europe right now.

  189. @Pincher Martin
    @Peter Shaw


    I can’t do any of these things, excepting the mask part (they never caught on here despite being a likely sensible measure). Plus I can’t travel to other parts of the country and schools are shut (although they are opening now)
     
    You can't go to a restaurant in Australia?

    Are these articles lying?

    Australia reopens restaurants, bars, with a warning to be cautious (10 days ago)

    Diners cautious as Western Australia’s cafes and restaurants re-open (8 days ago)

    The road out begins: Australia's restaurants and cafes open their doors to the first customers at the stroke of midnight under strict 10-person rule (12 days ago)


    Unlike the USA this is throughout Australia and has been since mid March (although it is easing now).
     
    Good. The U.S. should've done the same thing.

    I live in the Silicon Valley, which is an hour's drive south of San Francisco and part of the Bay Area. We've been under a fairly strict shelter-in-place order since March 16th which is only now just easing. The order was very successful in saving lives. Only 40 people have died in San Francisco of COVID-19, for example, which ought to be cause for celebration because the city is the second densest in America and does everything it can to discourage cars and encourage mass transit.

    But because much of the country has taken a more relaxed view of the coronavirus, all our efforts in the Bay Area are likely to be wasted. As soon as we drop our shelter-in-place order and go back to business as normal (which will have to be soon because everyone is suffering from lockdown fatigue) the virus will come right back in - not brought across our borders by dastardly foreigners, but delivered by fellow Americans.

    Australia's leadership must've recognized this potential problem early and took steps to make sure it wouldn't happen. Good for them. If only America had a similar unity in purpose.


    As I said whilst though there is no path from here for opening the borders nor preventing the loss of rights and the economic collapse will be far worse here than the USA.
     
    Borders are easy to monitor. Especially for Australia. You can immediately open up to New Zealand, Japan, Taiwan, Hong Kong, South Korea, Singapore, etc. without any fear at all. And for the rest of the countries, you just need to establish some testing and quarantine facilities at your airports and ports, which ought to be easy enough to do.

    Sweden is heading towards losing 0.1 % of its population (0.04% atm). They never shut down and can bounce straight back.
     
    Complete utter nonsense. Not even the Swedes believe this.

    Replies: @Peter Shaw

    The articles are not lying. Everything locked down at similar times but different states are opening up at different times.

    No restaurants or the theatre here, but at most primary school kids went back today.

    Your idea of effective screening at airports is laughable. Any testing would have to be 100% effective, have negligible false positives and be almost immediate. Considering the best place to catch coronavirus is probably an airport en route testing can’t be 100% by definition

    Re Sweden the graph is heading down, they are so it’s probably less than 0.1% but even if it was worst case based on the ridiculous assumptions common to people like you it might get to 0.2% who could die with (not from).

    • Replies: @Pincher Martin
    @Peter Shaw


    Your idea of effective screening at airports is laughable. Any testing would have to be 100% effective, have negligible false positives and be almost immediate.
     
    That is absolutely not true. And no epidemiologist would countenance such an absurd notion.

    As long as R0 stays below 1, you are safe. Any flare-ups that happen (and they will happen), you can put out without too much trouble and effort because you already have the testing capability, hospital capacity, and tracking/tracing ability. At worst you might have a quick and temporary local shutdown to make sure no conflagration is set to take place, but that's it.

    Border control doesn't have to be perfect. Some infected people will almost certainly get through the best controls. The purpose of border control is to keep R0 in Australia below 1 by preventing large numbers of infected people from entering the country and setting off another epidemic. That's it.

  190. @Pincher Martin
    @UK


    They aren’t near its ending. They just postponed its start. Except maybe New Zealand, with its extreme space, extreme distance from everywhere and airtight borders, will be able to totally isolate itself from the world. Everywhere else will see outbreaks on and off forever. And therefore lockdowns off and on forever.
     
    That scenario is much more likely for the U.S.

    First, Australia and New Zealand can both open up to not only each other, but to the numerous countries in the Asia-Pacific region which are nearly virus-free and seem determined to stay that way.

    Those countries include Japan, South Korea, Hong Kong, Singapore, and Taiwan. That's a hefty chunk of virus-free GDP to which those two countries can have frictionless movement between them. I would bet there are numerous small island nations in the Pacific which are also virus-free. And as other countries demonstrate they are virus-free, they can also be added to this list.

    Second, controlling the virus at the borders is much easier to do than controlling it within your borders. Border control authorities are free to invade the privacy of people who enter their country by verifying where they are staying, studying their passport to see if they have been in any hot zones, and getting enough data to track and trace their movements in the country. Harder to do that with your own citizens than with foreign nationals.


    There’ll also be other costs. In NZ the police can now enter your home because “Covid” and with no warrant. Maybe it’ll be ok for that small country but it is hardly a positive development.
     
    Yeah, those fascist Kiwis. They are always looking for some excuse to break down doors and roust good citizens out of hearth and home.

    As for the CDC’s stats…it was reported a bit and is on their website…though lost in huge reams of text.

    https://in.dental-tribune.com/news/new-estimate-by-the-cdc-brings-down-the-covid-19-death-rate-to-just-0-26-as-against-whos-3-4/
     

    Thanks for the link, I guess. The Dental Tribune?

    That's a sloppy case of propaganda, but at least you provided a source. It's incredible that you would believe it after witnessing what happened in New York and northern Italy.

    Replies: @UK, @dfordoom

    It’s a direct take from the CDC’s webpage…I just can’t highlight the section and make them summarise it for you. Here’s another third party summary you might engage with rather than just sticking your head in the ground.

    https://reason.com/2020/05/24/the-cdcs-new-best-estimate-implies-a-covid-19-infection-fatality-rate-below-0-3/

    Anyway, you seem not to realise that all of the countries you have named are either still locked down to a degree far more than many US states ever were or have reimposed lockdowns and will be continuing to do so…endlessly, it seems.

    • Replies: @Pincher Martin
    @UK


    Anyway, you seem not to realise that all of the countries you have named are either still locked down to a degree far more than many US states ever were or have reimposed lockdowns and will be continuing to do so…endlessly, it seems.
     
    They had to lockdown. Keep in mind that the main population centers for Taiwan, South Korea, Singapore, Japan and Hong Kong are nearly as densely populated as NYC - and even more reliant on mass transit and with more elderly. If the virus ever got going in any of those places, it would've been a disaster on at least the scale of northern Italy.

    But everything is reopening now. Restaurants, movie theaters, gyms - and with minimal, commonsense regulations.

    What good is it that South Dakota was never lock-downed to the same degree as Tokyo if South Dakotans just get hit with the brunt of the virus later?

    It’s a direct take from the CDC’s webpage…I just can’t highlight the section and make them summarise it for you. Here’s another third party summary you might engage with rather than just sticking your head in the ground.
     
    I'm not the one with my head in the sand. You need to read more critically. What that article is basically saying is that what happened in New York City and northern Italy was an impossibility.

    If the math doesn't work in real life, check your assumptions.

    Replies: @Peter Shaw, @UK

  191. @Pincher Martin
    @UK


    They aren’t near its ending. They just postponed its start. Except maybe New Zealand, with its extreme space, extreme distance from everywhere and airtight borders, will be able to totally isolate itself from the world. Everywhere else will see outbreaks on and off forever. And therefore lockdowns off and on forever.
     
    That scenario is much more likely for the U.S.

    First, Australia and New Zealand can both open up to not only each other, but to the numerous countries in the Asia-Pacific region which are nearly virus-free and seem determined to stay that way.

    Those countries include Japan, South Korea, Hong Kong, Singapore, and Taiwan. That's a hefty chunk of virus-free GDP to which those two countries can have frictionless movement between them. I would bet there are numerous small island nations in the Pacific which are also virus-free. And as other countries demonstrate they are virus-free, they can also be added to this list.

    Second, controlling the virus at the borders is much easier to do than controlling it within your borders. Border control authorities are free to invade the privacy of people who enter their country by verifying where they are staying, studying their passport to see if they have been in any hot zones, and getting enough data to track and trace their movements in the country. Harder to do that with your own citizens than with foreign nationals.


    There’ll also be other costs. In NZ the police can now enter your home because “Covid” and with no warrant. Maybe it’ll be ok for that small country but it is hardly a positive development.
     
    Yeah, those fascist Kiwis. They are always looking for some excuse to break down doors and roust good citizens out of hearth and home.

    As for the CDC’s stats…it was reported a bit and is on their website…though lost in huge reams of text.

    https://in.dental-tribune.com/news/new-estimate-by-the-cdc-brings-down-the-covid-19-death-rate-to-just-0-26-as-against-whos-3-4/
     

    Thanks for the link, I guess. The Dental Tribune?

    That's a sloppy case of propaganda, but at least you provided a source. It's incredible that you would believe it after witnessing what happened in New York and northern Italy.

    Replies: @UK, @dfordoom

    Second, controlling the virus at the borders is much easier to do than controlling it within your borders.

    Which is such an obvious point that it amazes me that many people can’t see it.

  192. anon[120] • Disclaimer says:
    @Steve Sailer
    @Peter Shaw

    What's so hard about buying a $50k testing machine and installing it at LAX's Air New Zealand terminal?

    Replies: @Peter Shaw, @anon

    There’s precedent in the customs world. When I rode the Chunnel from Paris I went though UK customs in Gare du Nord, then was herded into a sealed waiting area that is de facto “UK territory”. The train leaves Paris and makes no stops until arriving in London.

    Flying back from Canada a few years ago we went through US customs in Calgary, complete with US officials, then were cleared to go sit by the jetway. Arrival in the US airport was just like a domestic flight.

    So to return to Steve’s question: Air KiWi could just have a two part waiting area, one part for testing and the other part for tested. Sure, it would cost more per airport. The Ellis Island complex wasn’t cheap either.

    • Replies: @Peter Shaw
    @anon

    It is not practical when you think it through. You’d need testing in every terminal that has outbound flights to NZ (far more airlines than Airnz btw) AND that passengers could transit from (that includes basically the whole South Pacific for NZ).

    You’d also need a test that worked immediately, in Australia tests take 1-5 days. Do they have 5 minute tests in the USA?

    Considering airports are probably ground zero for Coronavirus you’d also need a test can capture people who have just been infected. Not possible I believe.

    Ellis island did not prevent the Spanish flu or many other respiratory diseases entering the USA btw. So historical experience would show that as soon as you open the border it will re enter your country.

  193. @Peter Shaw
    @Pincher Martin

    The articles are not lying. Everything locked down at similar times but different states are opening up at different times.

    No restaurants or the theatre here, but at most primary school kids went back today.

    Your idea of effective screening at airports is laughable. Any testing would have to be 100% effective, have negligible false positives and be almost immediate. Considering the best place to catch coronavirus is probably an airport en route testing can’t be 100% by definition

    Re Sweden the graph is heading down, they are so it’s probably less than 0.1% but even if it was worst case based on the ridiculous assumptions common to people like you it might get to 0.2% who could die with (not from).

    Replies: @Pincher Martin

    Your idea of effective screening at airports is laughable. Any testing would have to be 100% effective, have negligible false positives and be almost immediate.

    That is absolutely not true. And no epidemiologist would countenance such an absurd notion.

    As long as R0 stays below 1, you are safe. Any flare-ups that happen (and they will happen), you can put out without too much trouble and effort because you already have the testing capability, hospital capacity, and tracking/tracing ability. At worst you might have a quick and temporary local shutdown to make sure no conflagration is set to take place, but that’s it.

    Border control doesn’t have to be perfect. Some infected people will almost certainly get through the best controls. The purpose of border control is to keep R0 in Australia below 1 by preventing large numbers of infected people from entering the country and setting off another epidemic. That’s it.

  194. @UK
    @Pincher Martin

    It's a direct take from the CDC's webpage...I just can't highlight the section and make them summarise it for you. Here's another third party summary you might engage with rather than just sticking your head in the ground.

    https://reason.com/2020/05/24/the-cdcs-new-best-estimate-implies-a-covid-19-infection-fatality-rate-below-0-3/


    Anyway, you seem not to realise that all of the countries you have named are either still locked down to a degree far more than many US states ever were or have reimposed lockdowns and will be continuing to do so...endlessly, it seems.

    Replies: @Pincher Martin

    Anyway, you seem not to realise that all of the countries you have named are either still locked down to a degree far more than many US states ever were or have reimposed lockdowns and will be continuing to do so…endlessly, it seems.

    They had to lockdown. Keep in mind that the main population centers for Taiwan, South Korea, Singapore, Japan and Hong Kong are nearly as densely populated as NYC – and even more reliant on mass transit and with more elderly. If the virus ever got going in any of those places, it would’ve been a disaster on at least the scale of northern Italy.

    But everything is reopening now. Restaurants, movie theaters, gyms – and with minimal, commonsense regulations.

    What good is it that South Dakota was never lock-downed to the same degree as Tokyo if South Dakotans just get hit with the brunt of the virus later?

    It’s a direct take from the CDC’s webpage…I just can’t highlight the section and make them summarise it for you. Here’s another third party summary you might engage with rather than just sticking your head in the ground.

    I’m not the one with my head in the sand. You need to read more critically. What that article is basically saying is that what happened in New York City and northern Italy was an impossibility.

    If the math doesn’t work in real life, check your assumptions.

    • Replies: @Peter Shaw
    @Pincher Martin

    Your point about real life undoes all your arguments

    In real life the virus is in decline worldwide

    In real life it is in decline in countries who never locked down (Sweden)

    In real life there has not been a second wave in countries that went back to work (spain) 4 weeks ago, in fact cases kept falling at the same rate

    You also ignore real life historical experience of respiratory pandemic, ie they peak at nothing like 70% and border controls are not effective .

    You ignore the consequences of historical economic collapses, which this lockdown is creating, and are invariable disastrous for general well being.

    In real life you probably are Cochran (ie a sock puppet) but I cant prove that. But everything else is demonstrated by real life and can be proven by visiting worldometer, looking at unemployment statistics, and reading history.

    Replies: @Pincher Martin

    , @UK
    @Pincher Martin

    They did lockdown.

    Replies: @Pincher Martin

  195. @anon
    @Steve Sailer

    There's precedent in the customs world. When I rode the Chunnel from Paris I went though UK customs in Gare du Nord, then was herded into a sealed waiting area that is de facto "UK territory". The train leaves Paris and makes no stops until arriving in London.

    Flying back from Canada a few years ago we went through US customs in Calgary, complete with US officials, then were cleared to go sit by the jetway. Arrival in the US airport was just like a domestic flight.

    So to return to Steve's question: Air KiWi could just have a two part waiting area, one part for testing and the other part for tested. Sure, it would cost more per airport. The Ellis Island complex wasn't cheap either.

    Replies: @Peter Shaw

    It is not practical when you think it through. You’d need testing in every terminal that has outbound flights to NZ (far more airlines than Airnz btw) AND that passengers could transit from (that includes basically the whole South Pacific for NZ).

    You’d also need a test that worked immediately, in Australia tests take 1-5 days. Do they have 5 minute tests in the USA?

    Considering airports are probably ground zero for Coronavirus you’d also need a test can capture people who have just been infected. Not possible I believe.

    Ellis island did not prevent the Spanish flu or many other respiratory diseases entering the USA btw. So historical experience would show that as soon as you open the border it will re enter your country.

  196. @Pincher Martin
    @UK


    Anyway, you seem not to realise that all of the countries you have named are either still locked down to a degree far more than many US states ever were or have reimposed lockdowns and will be continuing to do so…endlessly, it seems.
     
    They had to lockdown. Keep in mind that the main population centers for Taiwan, South Korea, Singapore, Japan and Hong Kong are nearly as densely populated as NYC - and even more reliant on mass transit and with more elderly. If the virus ever got going in any of those places, it would've been a disaster on at least the scale of northern Italy.

    But everything is reopening now. Restaurants, movie theaters, gyms - and with minimal, commonsense regulations.

    What good is it that South Dakota was never lock-downed to the same degree as Tokyo if South Dakotans just get hit with the brunt of the virus later?

    It’s a direct take from the CDC’s webpage…I just can’t highlight the section and make them summarise it for you. Here’s another third party summary you might engage with rather than just sticking your head in the ground.
     
    I'm not the one with my head in the sand. You need to read more critically. What that article is basically saying is that what happened in New York City and northern Italy was an impossibility.

    If the math doesn't work in real life, check your assumptions.

    Replies: @Peter Shaw, @UK

    Your point about real life undoes all your arguments

    In real life the virus is in decline worldwide

    In real life it is in decline in countries who never locked down (Sweden)

    In real life there has not been a second wave in countries that went back to work (spain) 4 weeks ago, in fact cases kept falling at the same rate

    You also ignore real life historical experience of respiratory pandemic, ie they peak at nothing like 70% and border controls are not effective .

    You ignore the consequences of historical economic collapses, which this lockdown is creating, and are invariable disastrous for general well being.

    In real life you probably are Cochran (ie a sock puppet) but I cant prove that. But everything else is demonstrated by real life and can be proven by visiting worldometer, looking at unemployment statistics, and reading history.

    • Replies: @Pincher Martin
    @Peter Shaw


    Your point about real life undoes all your arguments
     
    An IFR is not a contingent statistic, like the number of COVID-19 deaths. Any contradiction invalidates it. So when someone claims that the IFR is 0.3%, which is little worse than the flu, one can just look at the numbers in northern Italy and NYC to see that the claim is incorrect.

    It's obviously a great deal higher than 0.3%. If it wasn't, then NYC and northern Italy would never have happened.


    In real life the virus is in decline worldwide
     
    Not true. Infection rates have been rising in Mexico and Brazil to name just two countries. And there are several U.S.states in which it is still rising as well. Texas and Tennessee, for example, both have an R0 above 1.

    And where the virus has been in decline, it's been because of the extraordinary steps taken to fight its spread. Even in Sweden people aren't rushing out to be infected. Behavior has been changed.


    In real life there has not been a second wave in countries that went back to work (spain) 4 weeks ago, in fact cases kept falling at the same rate
     
    Give it time. When a lockdown first ends, the most vulnerable in a population don't run out of their homes to hug and kiss their neighbors. They don't start shaking everyone's hands and rushing to crowded venues. Behavior has been modified to a large degree. It takes time for normal routines to reassert themselves and for people to forget why they were locked up in the first place.

    But very quickly the young and stupid will go back to business as usual, and since the young and the stupid have parents and grandparents, we'll see what happens then. Here in the states I'm guessing we'll know for sure in about three to four weeks after lockdowns end completely.


    You also ignore real life historical experience of respiratory pandemic, ie they peak at nothing like 70% and border controls are not effective .
     
    They're working pretty well in all the countries I just named. If a busy transit and tourist city like Hong Kong can stop the virus, then any country in the world can stop it.

    You ignore the consequences of historical economic collapses, which this lockdown is creating, and are invariable disastrous for general well being.
     
    Sweden didn't lock down. Its economy is still suffering. Sweden's Central Bank expects unemployment to rise to over 10% and for GDP to contract by over 9% this year.

    In real life you probably are Cochran (ie a sock puppet) but I cant prove that.
     
    He's a smart guy who knows a lot about diseases. Both about the mathematics and the history of them. If you read Paul Ewald's 2002 book Plague Time; The New Germ Theory of Disease, you'll see Cochran's name mentioned as a source. So he's not some journalist who started boning up on the topic only when COVID-19 got hot. He's known this subject at a scholarly level for decades.

    That doesn't mean he's right about everything, but ignorant people like you ought to carefully listen to what he says before discounting it.

  197. @Pincher Martin
    @UK


    Anyway, you seem not to realise that all of the countries you have named are either still locked down to a degree far more than many US states ever were or have reimposed lockdowns and will be continuing to do so…endlessly, it seems.
     
    They had to lockdown. Keep in mind that the main population centers for Taiwan, South Korea, Singapore, Japan and Hong Kong are nearly as densely populated as NYC - and even more reliant on mass transit and with more elderly. If the virus ever got going in any of those places, it would've been a disaster on at least the scale of northern Italy.

    But everything is reopening now. Restaurants, movie theaters, gyms - and with minimal, commonsense regulations.

    What good is it that South Dakota was never lock-downed to the same degree as Tokyo if South Dakotans just get hit with the brunt of the virus later?

    It’s a direct take from the CDC’s webpage…I just can’t highlight the section and make them summarise it for you. Here’s another third party summary you might engage with rather than just sticking your head in the ground.
     
    I'm not the one with my head in the sand. You need to read more critically. What that article is basically saying is that what happened in New York City and northern Italy was an impossibility.

    If the math doesn't work in real life, check your assumptions.

    Replies: @Peter Shaw, @UK

    They did lockdown.

    • Replies: @Pincher Martin
    @UK

    You'll need to be more specific.

  198. @UK
    @Pincher Martin

    They did lockdown.

    Replies: @Pincher Martin

    You’ll need to be more specific.

  199. @Peter Shaw
    @Pincher Martin

    Your point about real life undoes all your arguments

    In real life the virus is in decline worldwide

    In real life it is in decline in countries who never locked down (Sweden)

    In real life there has not been a second wave in countries that went back to work (spain) 4 weeks ago, in fact cases kept falling at the same rate

    You also ignore real life historical experience of respiratory pandemic, ie they peak at nothing like 70% and border controls are not effective .

    You ignore the consequences of historical economic collapses, which this lockdown is creating, and are invariable disastrous for general well being.

    In real life you probably are Cochran (ie a sock puppet) but I cant prove that. But everything else is demonstrated by real life and can be proven by visiting worldometer, looking at unemployment statistics, and reading history.

    Replies: @Pincher Martin

    Your point about real life undoes all your arguments

    An IFR is not a contingent statistic, like the number of COVID-19 deaths. Any contradiction invalidates it. So when someone claims that the IFR is 0.3%, which is little worse than the flu, one can just look at the numbers in northern Italy and NYC to see that the claim is incorrect.

    It’s obviously a great deal higher than 0.3%. If it wasn’t, then NYC and northern Italy would never have happened.

    In real life the virus is in decline worldwide

    Not true. Infection rates have been rising in Mexico and Brazil to name just two countries. And there are several U.S.states in which it is still rising as well. Texas and Tennessee, for example, both have an R0 above 1.

    And where the virus has been in decline, it’s been because of the extraordinary steps taken to fight its spread. Even in Sweden people aren’t rushing out to be infected. Behavior has been changed.

    In real life there has not been a second wave in countries that went back to work (spain) 4 weeks ago, in fact cases kept falling at the same rate

    Give it time. When a lockdown first ends, the most vulnerable in a population don’t run out of their homes to hug and kiss their neighbors. They don’t start shaking everyone’s hands and rushing to crowded venues. Behavior has been modified to a large degree. It takes time for normal routines to reassert themselves and for people to forget why they were locked up in the first place.

    But very quickly the young and stupid will go back to business as usual, and since the young and the stupid have parents and grandparents, we’ll see what happens then. Here in the states I’m guessing we’ll know for sure in about three to four weeks after lockdowns end completely.

    You also ignore real life historical experience of respiratory pandemic, ie they peak at nothing like 70% and border controls are not effective .

    They’re working pretty well in all the countries I just named. If a busy transit and tourist city like Hong Kong can stop the virus, then any country in the world can stop it.

    You ignore the consequences of historical economic collapses, which this lockdown is creating, and are invariable disastrous for general well being.

    Sweden didn’t lock down. Its economy is still suffering. Sweden’s Central Bank expects unemployment to rise to over 10% and for GDP to contract by over 9% this year.

    In real life you probably are Cochran (ie a sock puppet) but I cant prove that.

    He’s a smart guy who knows a lot about diseases. Both about the mathematics and the history of them. If you read Paul Ewald’s 2002 book Plague Time; The New Germ Theory of Disease, you’ll see Cochran’s name mentioned as a source. So he’s not some journalist who started boning up on the topic only when COVID-19 got hot. He’s known this subject at a scholarly level for decades.

    That doesn’t mean he’s right about everything, but ignorant people like you ought to carefully listen to what he says before discounting it.

  200. Your lying and/or being evasive

    1. It is in decline worldwide. Not in every country(I never claimed that) but overall deaths have been declining for a month.

    2.well there could be second waves but 4-5 weeks in Spain and it is still declining.

    3. Sweden’s has a small open economy so naturally its economy will decline. But far less than similar countries like Australia (functionally more than 25% of our population are now unemployed)

    4. Hong Kong has active cases at the moment. There is no evidence they preventing it coming into the country. But given Hong Kong is pretty warm atm (and the evidence indicates it’s seasonal) it is not going to spread much anyway

    5. Cochran claimed 2 million deaths in the USA were likely 6 weeks back. I said that was absurd and predicted 200k deaths. He called me (and plenty of others) an idiot and started deleting comments

    So far my prediction is looking about right. Only time will tell but when the data is conclusive he should resign his professorship and close his blog as calling people idiots and being spectacularly wrong means you have no credibility.

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