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From Bloomberg’s opinion section:

Where to Worry About Catching Covid-19, and Where Not To
How the coronavirus spreads in the real world.

By Faye Flam
May 15, 2020, 6:30 AM PDT

… The two drivers of the spread of the disease are close contact and crowding in closed spaces, said Muge Cevik, a virologist at the University of St. Andrews in the U.K. It spread through homeless shelters and nursing and care homes, where people were crowded with many others. It spread through people’s households, and through meat packing plants.

Cevik has been collecting and reviewing papers from around the world on disease transmission. “There are some trends emerging,” she says. “Spending time dining together, being in public transport,” might risk spreading the disease, but “going to a market briefly, for five minutes or a transient encounter while you walk or run past someone, those are low risks.”

The studies come from China, Singapore, Taiwan, and to a lesser extent the U.S. They were all done through contact tracing, which may turn out to be humanity’s greatest strategy for fighting the Covid-19 pandemic. Contact tracing can stop chains of transmission, even after a disease is widespread, as physician and former World Bank president Jim Yong Kim explained in The New Yorker. Another major benefit is that it offers clues as to how the disease spreads. Each virus has its unique pattern.

The U.S. has done almost no contact tracing yet. A survey of people coming to hospitals in New York City in May revealed that most of them had been home, and were not working or taking public transport. But why isn’t everyone admitted to the hospital being asked about this? Why aren’t we finding out who they live with, or who visited them, and tracking down where they’ve been? The lost opportunities are staggering.

Cevik said people often ask her how the disease could be so transmissible if it takes closed environments or close contact to spread. The first part of the answer is that after much speculation of extreme transmissibility, the data show something intermediate, with each infected individual transmitting the virus to between two and three others on average. But the important point, which is often missed, is that this is just an average. In the real world, most people transmit the disease to nobody, or one person, and a minority infect many others in so-called super-spreading events. It’s those we must learn how to avoid.

The data show that nine percent of infected people are responsible for 80% of the transmissions, she says.

I’ve been asking for 80-20 thinking about this for a long time.

Why? For one thing, the disease is apparently very infectious but only for a short window, and perhaps only in some cases. Contact tracing studies show people are most infectious right around the onset of symptoms, as well as a couple of days before and after. If someone in that stage goes to a party, or church service, or to work in a meat packing plant or nursing home, many other people will probably get sick.

One study in China showed how the virus spread at a business meeting and a restaurant. A contact tracing effort in Singapore revealed big clusters of cases stemmed from a business meeting, a church, and a visit to a shop. Another study, one of the few from the U.S., showed how one infected person in Chicago spread the disease to multiple people at a funeral and later at a birthday party, and one of those infected at the party then spread the disease to others at a church service that lasted more than two hours. Other studies connected outbreaks to crowded offices.

OK, here is my concern about these now-famous (hopefully, among iSteve readers) super-spreader events. I’m a big fan of contract-tracing for superspreader events. But what if this methodology is biased in favor of findings for events for which there are, say, formal invitation lists (such as wedding receptions) or guestbooks (such as funerals). In contrast, what if the virus was often spread in New York City by walking past somebody walking in the opposite direction on 42nd Street or going into a Duane Reade or whatever? Contact tracing would probably totally fail at finding these kind of infection-spreading events.

People who eventually developed severe symptoms were more likely to transmit the disease to others than were those who had mild symptoms, Cevik says. While it’s clear the disease can be spread by people before they have symptoms, it’s still an open question how many people have no symptoms and whether they are driving much of the spread.

… “I’d like people to stop wasting mental energy on the wrong things,” Bromage says. “To stop worrying about outdoors and bike riders since it’s such a low risk.”

But keep in mind that this emerging view of how the virus is most often spread — talking in an animated fashion, laughing, singing, and dancing with other people, up close and person — is pretty horrifying for having a good life in the long run. It’s okay to make money and spend money — which is good to know — just so long as you and the people you are with don’t enjoy yourself too much while doing it — which is very depressing to know.

 
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  1. Hey, whatever happened to the whole “lasts 4 days on a doorknob if it lasts a week!” hype, Steve? Really, it sounds like, as with most(?) germ-spread diseases the airborne contagion is by far the most important.

    Wasn’t it just a month ago, where you could catch Corona off an expanded-metal table outside the coffee shop, those doorknobs, the toilet seat (well, what can’t you catch?!), etc? Do you remember all the talk about wiping everything down including the kitchen sink? The country was going to run out of China-made “wipes” if we weren’t careful.

    Is this another instance of people who didn’t know their asses from holes in the ground going ahead and shooting their mouths off, telling everyone that they needed to wipe EVERYTHING? Actually, I don’t mind the hype from the Lyin’ Press (I don’t partake), but it’s the orders from Governors about this stupid speculation that is the problem.

    Yeah, don’t let your kid play basketball even with a different ball than the other kid. The other kid’s ball may hit the rim, then the rim’s got the Corona, then your ball hits the rim, it jumps off the rim onto your kid’s ball, then onto his hands, then he picks his nose and, WHAM, just like that, he’s got the sniffles.

    See “Six Degrees from Kevin’s Bacon” for more.

  2. … and on that last paragraph, that WOULD be really depressing if it were going to be true for more than a short while. Vaccine or no vaccine, that is not the case.

  3. Anonymous[751] • Disclaimer says:

    Heres my concern: Steve thinks this is a video game where “beat virus man bad” is the final boss level and therefore doesn’t care if everything from the US Constitution to the entire economy to children’s psychologial lives are sacrificed.

    Because hes a boomer who works from home.

    Who cares if the entire economy and the concept of American citizenship is sacrficed so we can “find out” to Steve’s satisfaction just how many sickly 85 year old nursing home patients can be protected from the flu?

    Well, Steve, I care about you destroying America and so do many other people.

  4. Anon[797] • Disclaimer says:

    Give me s break, Steve, you’re not the talking in an animated fashion type. Neither am I. I’m kind of liking the new behavior standards. Depressing? End of the good life? LOL

  5. SFG says:
    @Achmed E. Newman

    Honestly, I agree with you on a lot of other stuff here, but this is a new virus. Nobody knows anything (they just did an about-face on ventilators a little while ago) and you’d expect doctors and scientists to change their mind a few times as new information becomes available.

    • Agree: James Speaks
  6. But keep in mind that this emerging view of how the virus is most often spread — talking in an animated fashion, laughing, singing, and dancing with other people, up close and person — is pretty horrifying for having a good life in the long run.

    No, it isn’t.

    Unless you expect us to just suddenly shift human behavior to a new paradigm after thousands of years — to accommodate your fear of viruses that may come back year after year.

    I have news for you: Viruses of one kind or another come around year after year. They spread! People laugh and dance! Some people die!

    If you think we are going to change how we live, just to be in fear of never-ending, periodically cycling, viral infections, then you are mistaken.

    Lightening strikes. Some people die.

    This is only horrifying to you.

    The information you have been providing is useful and entertaining as usual, and we admire you. However, everything you have been writing about this subject has contained the implication that we have no choice but to cower or die. Maybe you can try a different tack.

  7. It’s way too late to do contact tracing.

    • Replies: @James Speaks
  8. theMann says:

    Perhaps slightly off topic:

    https://www.zerohedge.com/markets/italian-politician-demands-bill-gates-arrest-crimes-against-humanity

    Please Italy, return to normal. I will happily take another vacation there.

  9. drawbacks says:

    A wit on Arnold Kling’s blog calls super-spreader events “public spittle events.” Probably correct, for a broad definition of “spittle.”

  10. Coag says:
    @Buzz Mohawk

    Steve is in the high risk category because of his history of cancer and the immunotherapy which thankfully saved his life but also did god-knows-what alterations to the immune system. It’s understandable that he is sensitive to all issues covid-related. Until there is a proven effective treatment or vaccine it is rational to seclude oneself if one has a major comorbidity like that. Those of us lucky to not have such medical histories should continue participating in society but the nuanced attitude should of course take into account both the healthy and the not-perfectly-healthy.

  11. You should consider starting an occasional “Ask @Steve” thread:

    Q: A young colleague and I hugged the other day in the office. We were reported to HR. Are we going to die?

    A: Yes, Alarmist, you are both going to die … some day… but I’d say HR is more worrisome than the virus. If the colleague was female, you are likely to suffer more severely in either case.

    • LOL: BenKenobi, SafeNow
  12. Thoughts says:

    I think it’s officially time to stop worrying about it

  13. But keep in mind that this emerging view of how the virus is most often spread — talking in an animated fashion, laughing, singing, and dancing with other people, up close and person — is pretty horrifying for having a good life in the long run.

    Spoken like true normie, who cannot imagine good life without being jam packed with other normies.

    People who were socially distancing themselves for all their lifes to get away from normies like you, have the last laugh.

  14. Anon[273] • Disclaimer says:
    @Buzz Mohawk

    Lightening strikes. Some people die.

    Pretty sure the odds of dying of the ‘Rona are greater than those of dying of a lightning strike.

    Steve’s been more rational than the some of his readers who seem to have embraced a fatalistic bravado.

    • Agree: James Speaks
  15. Sam Patch says:

    I’ve been a regular reader of Steve’s for years, and he’s my go-to source for numerate, funny, and heterodox takes on the Conventional Wisdom. I don’t think it’s an exaggeration to say that his work has helped me preserve some semblance of sanity in a world gone mad. This Kung Flu, however, seems to have affected him in some visceral/existential way. Even as more and more evidence emerges that this is nowhere near what they warned is it would be, he has been operating as if it is. Hang in there, Steve. We need you now more than ever.

    • Disagree: James Speaks
    • Replies: @Anonymous
  16. There will probably be an app to flag that random “just walked past me into Duane Reade” contact. And a second app to make sure you’re not walking around without the first app.

    • Replies: @Hypnotoad666
  17. Interesting. In Detroit someone must have been in that window during a big sheriff upper ranks party at a trendy but cramped old fashion back room party in Detroit’s Eastern Market. It ripped through the upper ranks at the sheriff and city police.

    More lucky, since Detroit finally got a black chief, for once, who isn’t stupid and appears to be honest, he recovered.

    • Replies: @Hypnotoad666
  18. Erik L says:

    Even though the studies are biased in the way you state, if they show (as in the Taiwan study) that 15 minutes or more of unprotected contact within 6 feet of a stranger results in transmission one time out of about 1800, then it is safe to conclude the chance of catching it by walking past a stranger and being within 6 feet of him for about a second is non-zero but negligible

    • Replies: @Erik Sieven
  19. Anonymous[702] • Disclaimer says:

    “But keep in mind that this emerging view of how the virus is most often spread — talking in an animated fashion, laughing, singing, and dancing with other people, up close and person — is pretty horrifying for having a good life in the long run.“

    So basically this is Mother Nature taking out all of the Extroverts. The World will only have stoic introverts remaining in the gene pool by 2025. A planet full of Cat Lady and Nebbishy Bookworms.

    • Replies: @The Alarmist
    , @Elf Himself
  20. Gordo says:

    Some common sense would have been handy, coughs and sneezes spread diseases but somehow the UK Gov’t and the WHO told people for months not to wear masks.

    Liars or idiots or both?

  21. Wanna see superspreaders? Check out covid-infected homeless who ride the trains all day. Thousands of people rebreathe their exhaled air. And they breathe in pretty much everyone else’s. They’re living respiratory germ reservoirs.

    • Replies: @Buffalo Joe
  22. going to a market briefly, for five minutes

    You can’t buy much in five minutes. In fact, the wait in the cashier’s queue will probably last longer than that. But I guess scientists do not go to the market, they get everything delivered, so how would they know?

    But keep in mind that this emerging view of how the virus is most often spread — talking in an animated fashion, laughing, singing, and dancing with other people, up close and person — is pretty horrifying for having a good life in the long run.

    Well, curmudgeons will have a field day. Or several.

  23. going to a market briefly, for five minutes

    proves that Faye Flam never shopped for food?

    With the way everything is scattered about the store in less-than-logical fashion, and the way stores keep reorganizing their aisles to keep patrons in there for the maximum amount of time to optimize impulse purchases, I mean, who is able to get in and out of a food market in five minutes and aquire enough food for more than a snack?

    And how come crowded bus, train and plane rides are not on the list?

  24. Within a few months, tens of thousands of American office workers may be returning to their desks and office buildings, breathing partially filtered, partially recirculated air. Where does that sit on the risk scale? Presumably somewhere between walking outside, and living in a rest home. I attended a video conference with company management on this subject, and they didn’t give any straight answers, mostly platitudes and corporate CYA verbiage. I wasn’t filled with confidence that they knew that they were talking about.

  25. Dmon says:

    Finally know someone who got it. Neighbor lady, early 50’s. Never in mortal danger, but said she felt incredibly weak. Spent one overnight at hospital on an antibiotic drip, then they sent her home to sequester with her family. Doctor said if it got any worse, they would give her hydroxychloroquine. Said she didn’t go to the doctor until the 9th day of symptoms.
    -Husband is early to mid 40s, very overweight but also a cement contractor. He got a very mild case. Doctor told him it was because he is type O. Said most of their worst cases were type A (neighbor lady is type A).
    -3 kids, 16-23. They were all home with her, cheek by jowl, sitting on the same couch, handling the same remote. None of them got it. The two younger are both boys, athlete/surfer types, never sitting still. The oldest girl is chunky, but in that girl softball player way (which she was in high school).

    She is donating her blood for antibodies. At the 1 month check after recovery, both her and husband still had antibodies, down about 50% over the month. Another check coming up in about 2 weeks.
    Based on quick interwebs perusal, there might be something to this blood type deal.

    https://www.medrxiv.org/content/10.1101/2020.04.08.20058073v1

    • Thanks: vhrm
    • Replies: @moshe
    , @PiltdownMan
  26. Berkeley is considering allowing outside dining and in some cases moving tables into the street, in the parking lane. And then the comments point out that agressive panhandling and people pissing and defecating on the sidewalk is why you don’t want to be dining outside in Berkeley. And then it is noted that ADA rules state you must have room for two 36″ wide wheelchairs to pass each other between the tables. And then it is pointed out that serving alcohol beverages is only allowed within a certain distance from your establishment. And then it is pointed out that you better not set up in the bike lane. And on it goes. What fun. Oh, and one more thing . In LA County, home to a 10 million people, Dr. Barbara Ferrer, the Director of Public Health, who sets the LA County Covid-19 rules, is not actually a medical doctor.

    • LOL: Desiderius
    • Replies: @eD
    , @NOTA
    , @Bill Jones
  27. Unit472 says:

    Australia and New Zealand seem to be the only wealthy countries (ie decent places with truthful data) where the Wuhan fly is under control. But you can’t get in.

    I would caution those who think ‘surviving’ a bout with covid is the end of the story. You recover and, as a bonus, you get lifelong immunity. Maybe but you may also suffer kidney or other damage and end up on dialysis ( average survival time- 4.6 years)

  28. Ano says:

    Thank you Mr Sailer for your concern for us iSteve readers, but why no reminder to us to avoid super-spreading press photographers?

    Who’d have known you can catch the virus from a telephoto lens; but not from a wide-angled one.

  29. @Buzz Mohawk

    Stay inside and touch NOBODY until we have a vaccine to sell to you, goy. Even if it takes 10 years

    • Thanks: BenKenobi
    • Replies: @moshe
  30. Anonymous[278] • Disclaimer says:
    @SFG

    Exactly — SARS-CoV-1 is a new virus, probably the result of genetic engineering applied to a Coronavirus. Its characteristics are not known. There are standard military responses to biological attacks:

    Attack Phase of Biological Warfare
    . . .
    Defensive measures include:
    – Stop breathing and don protective mask.
    – Give the alarm.
    – Remain under cover, and move outside only after cloud has passed or “ALL
    CLEAR” is sounded.
    – Cover exposed skin.

    Post-Attack Phase of Biological Warfare
    CONTINUE to practice an increased level of good health, field sanitation and hygiene discipline. Keep wounds, cuts, and scratches clean by using soap, water and utilize available first aid. Don’t consume local foods.
    Eat and drink only approved food and water.
    Do not bathe in lakes, ponds and streams.
    Do not touch animals, especially dead ones.
    Observe BW contamination markers.

    https://www.tecom.marines.mil/Portals/120/Docs/Student%20Materials/FMST%20Manual/BiologicalFMST1413.doc

    And that’s about all you can do.

    For SARS-CoV-1, urban areas have combined the attack countermeasures with a bizarre secession of all operations. This is clearly a mistake.

    Steve’s notion that, past a certain point, countermeasures that make life not worth living are not worth having, is valid. “Deaths of Despair” are already a significant part of US mortality; telling people that their work matters so little that it is better not done would be expected to increase the “Deaths of Despair”.
    While the effect of despair might at first be small compared to the direct loss of life due to direct interference with food, goods, and services, over the medium term a sense of futility would (if not somehow ended) vitiate recovery efforts, increasing or greatly increasing casualties.

    The Swedish approach to COVID-1 seems the only viable one, short and long term, even given the high risk from a completely novel virus.

    • Replies: @Mr. Anon
  31. @Buzz Mohawk

    Unless you expect us to just suddenly shift human behavior to a new paradigm after thousands of years — to accommodate your fear of viruses that may come back year after year

    A lot of gay people had the same reaction to AIDS. It’s just like any other STD, they said. Penicillin treated the last one I had, why shouldn’t it treat this one? We can’t just let our lives be ruled by these doctors, that would be ‘rule by experts’ and we can’t have that! I’m not going to be prevented from living my life by fear of some African monkey virus!

    You don’t hear that much anymore today, partly because the people who talked like that died off.

    In any case, if you knew any history, you’d know that it’s our modern human behavior in the vaccine age that differs drastically from that of our ancestors. If you told someone from 1900 that many rich people were crowding into apartments in Manhattan, they’d be amazed.

  32. But keep in mind that this emerging view of how the virus is most often spread — talking in an animated fashion, laughing, singing, and dancing with other people, up close and person — is pretty horrifying for having a good life in the long run.

    Covid; Revenge of the Introverts

  33. NOTA says:
    @SFG

    +1

    We keep learning more about the virus over time, and our recommendations and response should change as a result. As Steve has pointed out earlier, I worry about politicians, government agencies, and big media sources being unwilling to admit they were previously wrong and change directions.

    • Replies: @Buffalo Joe
  34. eD says:
    @Buffalo Joe

    I’ve been trying to find out the reason to manufacture this hysteria, and recent interviews Jim Sinclair, and Daniel Estulin (the latter posted by Kevin Barrett on the right hand links of the site of this website) offer support that shutting down the economy was the point. One explanation was that global finances had gotten so screwed up that there was a dollar shortage, with no room to address it due to zero interest rates, and the only tool available was to shut down most commercial activity, hard. The seasonal flu was the best excuse they could come up with on short notice.

    Right now, the “shut down commercial activity to deal with a sudden loss of liquidity” conspiracy theory is fitting the facts best of how this is unfolding, of the various possible explanations.

    One thing that works well with this theory is that it fits well within the drawn out reopening plans, even in red states, that are either always being postponed by another two weeks or involve businesses reopening under restrictions where they can not practically make a profit. The whole idea is to keep this going until all small businesses have been forced to close permanently. But while people bought the plague explanation to a remarkable expense, it was too rushed and too flimsy to suffice for more than a couple of months. So now you get the stalling.

  35. “It’s okay to make money and spend money — which is good to know — just so long as you don’t enjoy yourself too much while doing it — which is depressing to know.”

    Steve, this view could continue, or it will suddenly change, come November 4. The MSM will be sure to keep you informed.

    • Agree: Redneck farmer
  36. NOTA says:
    @Buzz Mohawk

    As a counterexample: There was a community of gay men who had a lot of anonomous anal sex as a hobby. AIDS came along, and people did indeed change their behavior on a pretty large scale. The people who couldn’t or wouldn’t change their behavior mostly died of a horrible wasting disease.

    Reality doesn’t care in the slightest about what we want to do, or what makes our lives worthwhile, or what our culture dictates. And similarly, it doesn’t care a bit about whether we live or die. We have to adapt to reality, since it won’t adapt to us. That may mean cutting back on the anonymous gay orgies, or wearing a mask when you go to the office every day, or something much harder than either of those things, and people who can’t adapt to what’s needed won’t do so well.

    • Replies: @Mr. Anon
    , @Mike Tre
  37. Travis says:

    We took the family to beach at Long Branch, NJ yesterday. Was pretty crowded, less than half the people walking around the promenade had masks. The bathrooms were closed, so my kids and I had to piss on the street next to the car. Ocean was too cold for swimming.

  38. NOTA says:
    @Buffalo Joe

    Yeah, the response to COVID19 has been a great demonstration of all the ways we’ve ossified and walled ourselves in as a society. A lot of the sensible things to do to avoid catching/spreading the virus are going to run afoul of some dumbass rule, law, or policy,

    • Replies: @Buffalo Joe
  39. Bullshit. Be the world you desire. The more you act normal, the more it emboldens others to act normal. It gives them permission. Hypochondriacs can always – and will now always – diaper up and glove up.

    This is an idea I’ve yet to see: legal indemnity waivers for thick sweaty places like bars, dance clubs, music festivals. Waivers are common for, say, paintball battles and other potentially risky activities. Sign the waiver and you can’t sue the proprietor if you come down with the sniffles. Bedshitters afraid of close human contact will avoid these places like the plague anyway. Seems like a win-win.

    Get Out Live Life!

  40. Kyle says:

    “ It’s okay to make money and spend money — which is good to know — just so long as you don’t enjoy yourself too much while doing it — which is depressing to know.”

    This is sad but we all have to grow up at some point.

    • Replies: @Daniel Williams
  41. @eD

    “One explanation was that global finances had gotten so screwed up that there was a dollar shortage, with no room to address it due to zero interest rates”

    That makes no sense. The Federal Reserve will make overnight loans at zero percent in perpetuity to any bank or credit union not meeting its reserve requirements. No limit. So if short-term demand for dollars exceeds supply of dollars, the Fed will cover that shortfall forever at zero percent – lenders have no reason to deny dollars to anyone, whether via mortgages, car loans, or unsecured credit.

    Pausing economic activity in fact likely increased dollar demand via credit cards and home equity lines of credit as people tapped those credit lines since they aren’t allowed to work, thus increasing the supply of dollars. Small business owners typically operate on cash flows and sometimes personal credit cards to cover temporary cash shortages, so the shutdowns caused an expansion of dollar supply to meet leases until they can reopen.

    My credit cards have let me run up dollar debt for The Duration.

    There is no dollar shortage. Fake News.

    • Agree: Muggles
  42. prosa123 says:

    The real takeaway: this is a nothingburger of a disease unless you’re old or in failing health.

    • Replies: @Father Coughlin
  43. @SFG

    Yes, not so long ago people were saying (I was one of them) that we should look at copper switches, bed-rails, door handles etc in hospitals and public buildings. Still not a bad idea, a lot of other infections are passed around in hospitals.

    https://www.asm.org/Press-Releases/2019/November-1/Copper-Hospital-Beds-Kill-Bacteria,-Save-Lives

    And others (I wasn’t one of them) were saying you should leave your mail and parcel deliveries for a few days while any viruses/bacteria die off.

    https://www.dailymail.co.uk/femail/article-8156359/Doctor-insists-leave-items-outside-THREE-days-wash-them.html

    PS – NOTA’s example of the gay men hasn’t lasted – now they take PREP and go back at it. Gilead must be making a fortune. The ideal drug for a producer is one you need to keep taking.

    https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Pre-exposure_prophylaxis

    • Replies: @Lugash
  44. @prosa123

    Yes … that is what I am hearing from my friends in the medical profession. Which makes it like every disease ever, doesn’t it? Of course it may be different with other gene pools, say Koreans.

  45. Lugash says:
    @YetAnotherAnon

    PS – NOTA’s example of the gay men hasn’t lasted – now they take PREP and go back at it. Gilead must be making a fortune. The ideal drug for a producer is one you need to keep taking.

    They never really stopped. They slowed down somewhat in the late 80s and early 90s, but mostly they kept on going.

  46. Jim Given says:

    The more I reread this article the more I become convinced that it contains much more propaganda than information. In the first paragraph, evidently to characterized close crowded spaces we have the conjunction:
    “It spread through people’s households, and through meat packing plants.”

    Oh, OK, we see the similarity. So we have to avoid close contact with other people, public transit, business offices, factories, social gatherings, etc. Right?
    No! The great advance here is Contact Tracing. Why, or rather how, does it work? Well, because there are superspreaders, infected people that are super-contagious for a short window of time. Is everyone super-contagious during that window, or just a few people? If the latter, which people? And is the window like “an hour” or “a couple days before and after outbreak of symptoms”. We don’t know.
    Doesn’t matter! Computers are powerful and they will find the patterns! All we need to do is force everyone to carry a cell phone or (more reliable) implant everyone with a chip to track our location. Then the computer will report all contacts – and everything else we do. A vast digital ant colony! And this will work – “even when the disease is already widespread.” The “experts” have told us it won’t work under those conditions! What about that?

    If this article were a high school science fair presentation, would you give it a passing grade?

  47. Since when you’re most contagious (and have the highest viral loads), you probably feel the crappiest, I’d expect these “super spreader” events to mostly involve obligations that one can’t easily get out of; which explains the weddings, funerals, etc. On the other hand, someone else can always do your shopping for you.

  48. Jack D says:
    @Achmed E. Newman

    It used to be (maybe 100 years ago) that it was common for children to consume coffee. Children were just smaller adults so they ate the same food (BTW, yesterday I saw an Amish boy who looked to be about 10 years old plowing a field with a six mule team – I’m not sure OSHA would approve. ) Then a rumor got started that coffee would stunt the growth of children (this is absolutely false). It turns out that this was not spontaneous – it was engineered by the soft drink industry (Coca-Cola). Maybe Chlorox started the “wipe everything” rumor?

  49. Mr. Anon says:
    @SFG

    Honestly, I agree with you on a lot of other stuff here, but this is a new virus. Nobody knows anything (they just did an about-face on ventilators a little while ago) and you’d expect doctors and scientists to change their mind a few times as new information becomes available.

    If nobody knows anything about this new virus, then perhaps the proper way to deal with it is NOT to implement a drastic, never-before-attempted social experiment with dire collateral damage.

    You know what pandemic virus we know even less about than SARS-COV-2? The next one.

    I suggest that to defeat that as yet unknown threat, everybody – everywhere in the world – should stop what they are doing right now, retreat to the nearest shelter alone, and stay there until the all-clear is given.

  50. @eD

    One explanation was that global finances had gotten so screwed up that there was a dollar shortage, with no room to address it due to zero interest rates, and the only tool available was to shut down most commercial activity, hard. The seasonal flu was the best excuse they could come up with on short notice.

    Right now, the “shut down commercial activity to deal with a sudden loss of liquidity” conspiracy theory is fitting the facts best of how this is unfolding, of the various possible explanations.

    Stop. We all have misfires. But don’t embarrass yourself further.

    And if you are reading people who are pitching this stuff–stop reading them. Get some basic economics, under your belt and look at what the Fed has done this past decade, then use your own brain, rather than relaying the rantings of whack jobs. (Hint: the Fed’s ability and willingness to supply liquidity these days is not really in doubt. We actually are smarter on that point than in 1930.)

    Finance can be doing their usual looting and creating periodic crises–it’s what they do–and yet have absolutely nothing to do with our reaction–or over-reaction–to YAVFC.**

    (**Yet Another Virus from China)

    • Replies: @Hypnotoad666
  51. @Alexander Turok

    A lot of gay people had the same reaction to AIDS.

    I feel bad for the gays since AIDS. State of emergency was declared. Gay bars were closed. Employers were forbidden from hiring gays. Youtube AI automatically banned videos with AIDS in the title. This was supposed to continue until a vaccine was invented, and they’re still waiting.

  52. Anonymous[413] • Disclaimer says:

    It spread through homeless shelters and nursing and care homes, where people were crowded with many others. It spread through people’s households, and through meat packing plants.

    Selection bias? Where do some of the groups that evidenced relatively high contagious score with traits like conscientiousness, compliance, extroversion?

    Why? For one thing, the disease is apparently very infectious but only for a short window, and perhaps only in some cases.

    Nobody knows anything.

    Contact tracing studies show people are most infectious right around the onset of symptoms, as well as a couple of days before and after.

    “Around the onset of symptoms” /= “asymptomatic”

    One study in China showed how the virus spread at a business meeting and a restaurant.

    The alleged Chinese case study is dubious.

    While it’s clear the disease can be spread by people before they have symptoms,

    No, that isn’t “clear”.

    How can people spread the virus if they have no symptoms?

    it’s still an open question how many people have no symptoms and whether they are driving much of the spread.

    Nobody knows anything.

    • Replies: @Reg Cæsar
  53. Cortes says:
    @Je Suis Omar Mateen

    I’m tempted to agree. It would be good to know what attitudes insurance companies have been developing, though. The utmost good faith aspect of the insurance contract requires full disclosure of relevant information. Waiving the right to claim against the business where you socialised is one thing. But did you update your own insurance policies before putting on the disco duds and stepping on out? Do your hangouts have CCTV which might have images of you putting yourself at risk of being infected and which your insurer might obtain?

    • Replies: @Je Suis Omar Mateen
  54. @Known Fact

    There will probably be an app to flag that random “just walked past me into Duane Reade” contact. And a second app to make sure you’re not walking around without the first app.

    Hmmm . . . this gives me a tremendous business idea. Social distancing is basically like air traffic control on the ground. So all we need to do is add a radio transponder to the Bill Gates microchip that will soon be implanted in all of us. Oh yeah, and the government will also have to use the cell phone towers to beam us all with microwaves. But once the system is in place, social distancing violations will trigger a Squawk Code and will be logged by the appropriate authorities at the Human Traffic Control Center. The Human Traffic Controller can then direct us to move along at a more appropriate heading. As a bonus, the government will have streaming, real time locations for all Americans within a few inches. Think of how handy that will be.

    The air traffic control radar beacon system (ATCRBS) is a system used in air traffic control (ATC) to enhance surveillance radar monitoring and separation of air traffic. It consists of a rotating ground antenna and transponders in aircraft. The ground antenna sweeps a narrow vertical beam of microwaves around the airspace. When the beam strikes an aircraft, the transponder transmits a return signal back giving information such as altitude and the Squawk Code, a four digit code assigned to each aircraft that enters a region. Information about this aircraft is then entered into the system and subsequently added to the controller’s screen to display this information when queried. This information can include flight number designation and altitude of the aircraft. ATCRBS assists air traffic control (ATC) surveillance radars by acquiring information about the aircraft being monitored, and providing this information to the radar controllers. The controllers can use the information to identify radar returns from aircraft (known as targets) and to distinguish those returns from ground clutter. https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Air_traffic_control_radar_beacon_system

  55. @AnotherDad

    Besides, everyone knows it’s the 5G towers that cause the coronavirus.

  56. peterike says:
    @Alexander Turok

    A lot of gay people had the same reaction to AIDS. It’s just like any other STD, they said. Penicillin treated the last one I had, why shouldn’t it treat this one? We can’t just let our lives be ruled by these doctors, that would be ‘rule by experts’ and we can’t have that! I’m not going to be prevented from living my life by fear of some African monkey virus!

    They may have said that — though I recall a distinctly more hysterical reaction along the lines of “spend every possible dollar on earth until we’re cured!” — but in any case what they meant was that “No, I’m not going to stop having indiscriminate sex with strangers and getting high on poppers and other drugs of my choice that further weaken my immune system.” In fact, a lot of them DID say just that. And they certainly kept right on doing it. Actions speak louder than words.

  57. @Lawyer Guy

    It ripped through the upper ranks at the sheriff and city police.

    The super-spreader was probably a clerk at the Dunkin’ Donuts.

  58. Mr. Anon says:
    @NOTA

    That may mean cutting back on the anonymous gay orgies, or wearing a mask when you go to the office every day, or something much harder than either of those things, and people who can’t adapt to what’s needed won’t do so well.

    Actually, most people who don’t wear a mask when they go to work will be fine, as most people aren’t at any significant risk from the disease. As you said, reality doesn’t care about what you want.

  59. peterike says:

    It spread through people’s households, and through meat packing plants.

    Meat packing plants again. Did it really spread in meat packing plants? Or because said plants are staffed by imported immigrant workers that likely go home after work to the same crowded housing complexes, mingle with one another constantly with zero social distancing or other precautions, sharing food, drink, joints, etc.? I would say that’s about 100x more likely than they got it actually working at the plant. But since asking about the lifestyles of immigrant Somalis or whoever would be racist, we’ll just go with “meat packing plant.”

  60. Anonymous[294] • Disclaimer says:

    In the UK the gov generally tell people masks don’t work and are very reluctant to make them compulsory because the facial recognition tech they are rolling out obviously depends on people not covering their faces.

  61. epebble says:
    @Jack D

    Amish boy who looked to be about 10 years old plowing a field with a six mule team

    Where was this? Did you take a picture? That would be so beautiful, to see in 2020.

    • Replies: @Jack D
  62. Mike Tre says:
    @NOTA

    “That may mean cutting back on the anonymous gay orgies, or wearing a mask when you go to the office every day, ”

    Except that, you know, abstaining from sodomy actually prevents the acquisition of HIV, while wearing a cloth mask in public doesn’t actually do shit. Small detail I realize, but worth mentioning.

  63. @Coag

    I stated this fact about Steve months ago. I agree with your comment, but we all don’t have to live like Steve. That is the point. We love Steve, and we wish him the best.

    • Agree: Bernard
    • Replies: @Father O'Hara
  64. eD says:
    @Je Suis Omar Mateen

    JSOM #41,

    Yes it doesn’t make much sense and I am still trying to work out what exactly the play is. Do a search on the most recent Jim Sinclair interview and he explains the situation better than I could.

    However, I think the idea was to stop demand for short term cash and liquidity by stopping cash moving, by stopping most consumer spending.

    To use my household as an example, in the last two months we have paid rent, bought groceries, and bought some household supplies. All other discretionary spending from us has stopped. Granted, we lived fairly frugally before the lockdown. Also, I rarely buy stuff on online/ mail order, but it would be interesting to see the data of that. I think that component of the consumer economy has been exaggerated, and one the one hand you have the lack to walk into a local store and buy something, but on the other hand you have a good deal of uncertainty and loss of income that is leading people to postpone purchases.

    I am also staying out of the investment markets because of the uncertainty, and I doubt that anyone other than the government is making loans at 0% interest. I have had a number of fixed income bearing investments that have been called during this time.

    So you get a situation where the velocity of money just stops. On the consumer end, there is nothing to buy. Anything that is being pushed through the investment markets is whatever the government is pushing. I’ve thought of getting a larger apartment, partly on the grounds that if I am going to be under house arrest it would be nice to have a larger house, but I have no idea how real estate prices will be affected or even if any real estate agent will show me anything. I am waiting another year. So you got a huge part of the economy just freezing up.

    If this can be maintained another couple months, and it appears very much that this is the plan, businesses, including some large businesses, that have been hanging on in the expectation that the lockdown is short term will fold. They won’t be looking for more loans. No more salaries for their employees. At that point we may see a non-cosmetic alteration in the lockdown rules, since too many businesses will be closed to have much outlets for consumer demand, which will be down anyway since too many people will be relying on government checks that just cover food and rent. Food prices are going up quite a bit.

    It could have been done for environmental reasons -methane emissions from what used to be the tundra are up and there are big food production problems. Or it could have been done because the economic system could not generate liquidity anymore. But I think shutting down economic activity was the goal, with a lot of control measures and side programs tacked on, and decision to shut everything down was made quickly, without a lot of in depth planning or thinking things through how this would exactly work in the long term.

  65. Mr. Anon says:
    @Anonymous

    “Deaths of Despair” are already a significant part of US mortality; telling people that their work matters so little that it is better not done would be expected to increase the “Deaths of Despair”.

    The spectacle of Andrew Cuomo* scolding people for wanting to work and telling them that their jobs are “non-essential” was especially disgusting. If people are told for months on end that their jobs are non-essential, they’re liable to start believing it.

    By the way, I’m surprised there hasn’t been much discussion about this whole “social distancing” thing. Where did it come from? It seems to have originated here:

    https://www.ncbi.nlm.nih.gov/pmc/articles/PMC3372334/

    https://www.abqjournal.com/1450579/social-distancing-born-in-abq-teens-science-project.html

    i.e., it originated at a Department of Energy weapons lab, apparently in response to government concerns raised by, or at least tied up with, the “Dark Winter” biowarfare exercise conducted in the summer of 2001. By the way, “whistle-blower” (is that a job description now?) Richard Bright alluded to that same term in his testimony to Congress last week:

    https://www.reuters.com/article/us-health-coronavirus-usa-bright/whistleblower-warns-of-darkest-winter-if-us-doesnt-plan-against-coronavirus-idUSKBN22Q1JH

    But I’m sure that isn’t a case of neuro-linguistic programming.

    *Given his administration’s policy of forcing nursing homes to accept infectious COVID-19 patients, I propose that Governor Andrew Cuomo henceforth always be referred to as “The Murderer Andrew Cuomo”.

  66. @Kyle

    Except this crisis isn’t making people grow up—it’s making them regress.

    The grocery stores are full of adult babies waddling around in fuzzy pyjamas and pastel fabric masks. Grown men and women are sharing Facebook memes of cartoon nurses reminding them that we’re all “in this together”. Hairdressers and bartenders are demanding to be paid indefinitely to do nothing because they’re too scared to go back to work.

    No one is growing up in this crisis. They’re turning into grotesque toddlers.

    • Replies: @Paco Wové
  67. @Anonymous

    “Well, Steve, I care about you destroying America …”

    Maybe I haven’t been paying attention. Was Steve elected President or something?

  68. @Alexander Turok

    I don’t care what gay men said, because gay men are abnormal. And I have had many gay friends.

    It took me a long time to realize that I didn’t need to have any patience with their weirdness. The only reason they liked me was because I was a good-looking young man. Seriously. It is kind of annoying when you realize that all those people who befriended you did so because they wanted to fuck you in the ass or wanted to have you fuck them in the ass.

    I have been finished with gay people for many, many years. And I was as good a friend as they ever could have had. I don’t care about their reaction to AIDS. It was wrong. They were wrong, and that was not COVID-19, which effects people generally instead of fudge-packers mostly.

    Okay?

    • Troll: Alexander Turok
    • Replies: @Anonymous
  69. I can’t believe I’m saying this, but….

    I think I’m going to stop reading the Isteve blog for a while. A few weeks, certainly. Maybe for a few months.

    I just can’t waste my time on these Gavin Newsome koolaid articles.

  70. Contact tracing is for early stage, small numbers…..not when it’s been here for months and large numbers have already been exposed.

    The govt. move for “contact tracing” at this stage amounts to clumsy surveillance.

    I said from the start that there was no risk outside, yet I see people wearing masks while alone in their cars, or walking their dogs with no other human anywhere near.

    Here in CA when I go our for a walk, other people act as if I’m a bio-hazard and run into the street to avoid me on the sidewalk.

    The obvious fact is that you are more likely to get a viral dose in an enclosed space where there is little ventilation, and you are probably getting repeatedly high doses in that situation.

    In the end, life itself is full of risks, and as adults we should be allowed to assess those risks for ourselves.

    There was no justification to wreck the economy and it will take years to recover from this fiasco.

    • Agree: Kratoklastes
    • Replies: @Anonymous
  71. Where to Worry About Catching Covid-19, and Where Not to

    Wednesbury?

    TOP DEFINITION

    Wednesbury

    A rowdy place in the west midlands where you can buy cheap booze and chat up the local crumpet.

    If you have sex in the park, people will walk past and not batter an eyelid..(and thats in daytime!!)

    Girl 1: I used protection when with my boyfriend last night.

    Girl 2: Oh really??

    Girl 1: Yep, we used a bus shelter

    https://www.urbandictionary.com/define.phpterm=wednesbury

    • Replies: @Cortes
  72. @Erik L

    But what if the stranger 6 feet away sneezes or coughs just right in the wrong moment? I think than Byasian statistics kick in and the likelihood of infection becomes non-negligible again.

    • Replies: @Steve Sailer
  73. Anon[230] • Disclaimer says:

    22 US states that are tracking recoveries thoroughly and properly are reporting good results. A long string of US states now have more than 50% of their total infected population recovered. Since the infection rate in these places is also going down, in three more weeks we should see the epidemic plunge dramatically in these places.

    These states are: Alaska, Arkansas, Hawaii, Idaho, Louisiana, Maine, Michigan, Minnesota, Mississippi, Montana, North Carolina, North Dakota, Oklahoma, South Carolina, South Dakota, Tennessee, Texas, Utah, Vermont, West Virginia, Wisconsin, and Wyoming.

    Alaska, Hawaii, Montana, and Vermont have less than 100 active cases each. They’re likely to be virus-free 2 weeks.

    Most of those US states with large black or Hispanic illegal populations aren’t reporting recovery rates except among their white population, which makes the epidemic look worse in those places. However, if they’re following the trend, most of the others should have over a 50% recovery rate by now. Even blacks and Hispanics can only pass it around so much before they become dead or immune.

  74. Anonymous[238] • Disclaimer says:

    IF TRUMP HAD BALLS HE WOULD MOCK THE OUTDOOR MASK WEARERS.

    Outdoor transmission is a dumb hoax. Fauci & Birx both know it and they pulled that Rose Garden facemask stunt last week.

    Extreme infectiousness is a hoax. Married couples on the Diamond Princess locked down in ship cabin quarantine for two weeks and only one not both become infected.

    what if the virus was often spread in New York City by walking past somebody walking in the opposite direction on 42nd Street

    Cannot believe iSteve posted this sentence. Is Steve’s wife posting today?

    How about watching the press briefings Steve. Reporter in the front row last week immediately ripped her mask off at the end when she thought the cameras stopped rolling. BECAUSE IT’S A HOAX.

    At the end of the outdoor briefing early last week (where the angry Asian CBS reporter was told by Trump to “ask China”) the reporters collapsed into a huddle after Trump exited. IOW social distancing is for the cameras. BECAUSE IT’S A HOAX.

  75. @Achmed E. Newman

    Wasn’t it just a month ago, where you could catch Corona off an expanded-metal table outside the coffee shop, those doorknobs, the toilet seat

    Any vector that transmits a sufficient viral load can give you the diease. When we didn’t know anything, it was prudent to assume all modes of transmission need to be blocked. Now that we know more, given that this new information includes the damage done to multiple organs, but also that a broken economy could kill more people that COVID-19, it is prudent to optimize.

    We are searching for the best balance between limiting the spread of the disease and resuming quality of life measures. Can you understand that?

    • Agree: New Dealer
  76. @Anonymous

    Heres my concern: Steve thinks this is a video game where “beat virus man bad” is the final boss level and therefore doesn’t care if everything from the US Constitution to the entire economy to children’s psychologial lives are sacrificed.

    The Bill of Rights is pretty much useless if you’re dead, disabled, or famished.

    • Replies: @Daniel Williams
    , @Anon
  77. @Jim Don Bob

    It’s way too late to do contact tracing.FIFYIt’s too late to stop the spread of the disease via contact tracing.

    We need to do contact tracing to learn more about how the disease spreads. We need to know how the disease spreads so we can allow low risk behaviors and limit high risk behaviors.

    • Replies: @Sam Patch
  78. BIG DUCK says:
    @Alexander Turok

    No, the experts said it was an equal opportunity killer that would kill off young white high school couples from Iowa. It would then proceed to kill tens of millions average hardworking moral normal Americans according to their computer models.

    In fact, it killed almost nobody except degenerates engaged in group gay sex and some drug addicts. And here you are telling me this was a great coup of expertise? Incredible. It was only a coup in the billions of dollars that they were able to extract from people to work on a disease almost nobody had and cause no real damage to normal people

    • Agree: Achmed E. Newman
    • Replies: @Alexander Turok
  79. prosa123 says:
    @Coag

    A British NHS analysis of deaths showed that people who survived cancer 5+ years ago have a lower than average death rate. So do smokers.

  80. prosa123 says:
    @eD

    After just two months of being closed 87% of Manhattan restaurants were unable to make their May 1 rent payments.

    • Replies: @Clyde
  81. @Daniel Williams

    Daniel, mass transit petri dishes

    • Replies: @Reg Cæsar
  82. @NOTA

    NOTA, nice comment and politicians or MSM never adnit they are or were wrong. I will wait while you find an example. Stay safe.

  83. @Buffalo Joe

    Wanna see superspreaders? Check out covid-infected homeless who ride the trains all day. Thousands of people rebreathe their exhaled air. And they breathe in pretty much everyone else’s. They’re living respiratory germ reservoirs.

    Daniel, mass transit petri dishes

    Which is why everyone in Hong Kong is dead, while no one in San Marino is even sick. Or something…

  84. @eD

    eD, to quote Obama, this is beyond my pay grade, but in truth, this all boils down to control. How far can we push our control without a revolt. Revolt may be too strong a word, but you get my drift. Time for the courts to play their role.

    • Replies: @moshe
  85. Clyde says:

    I have not seen anyone say this. But teachers want school to be out for months and will agitate against fall re-openings. The young students will be perfectly OK and healthy, but the teachers k-12 through universities are afraid of catching Covid19 from the students. I would say to all teachers (alleged dedicated educators) wear double masks up to your eyeballs like Anthony Fauchi was the other day at a Trump presser. And wash and sanitize your hands each hour. How about distributing hydroxychloroquine tablets to them? Yeah, I know this will never happen but…..One can dream about some non-hysteria and some common sense here.

    This fall look for public school teachers to be cut lots of slack when they refuse to return to work in the schools. And they will insist on still collecting their salaries. Their unions will be very strong on this.

  86. SafeNow says:

    “Most often spread,” and “such a low risk” are examples of adjectival descriptions that are insufficiently quantitative. I grasp that quantifying the risk descriptions would require data that do not exist. These crucial data would exist if the requisite studies were paid for. Government should ask top academic epidemiologists, “How much money is needed to produce these data? Tell us the number. Money is no object. Be optimal.” As Bloomberg noted a long time ago, you don’t TELL the scientists what you will pay for science; rather, you ASK them what is needed. And I repeat: Optimal science. This is not an America 2.0, get-it-basically-okay project. Where are the masks? This is hopeless; America 2.0 is irreversible.

  87. @eD

    I’ve been trying to find out the reason to manufacture this hysteria

    The explanation is fairly simple: our society is in a gradual transition to a model of a global ant hill. Parallels with the primate world no longer apply. This is a lemming-run or rather a locust-flight phenomenon on a global scale. Only instead of a physical migration, here we can observe abrupt changes in human behavioral patterns.

  88. Anonymous[278] • Disclaimer says:
    @Coag

    Just to show that it can be done:

    I literally have triple concertina around the house, an area surveillance system, and power shutters on all windows/doors of the house, plus a few more security features. The house is out in the countryside, looking at the woods, not visible from the road. Most things are delivered by mail/commercial vehicles, and I go to town for groceries about every 2 weeks, with mask and gloves (no goggles, but then there are no COVID-1 cases in my county). Social interaction is limited to immediate neighbors and construction contractors.

    Basic idea is to be somewhat isolated and simultaneously resistant to a home invasion / “lost traveler” scam / stealthy burglar attack.

    “At last, I can live like a human being” said Nero, upon entering his new palace (https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Domus_Aurea).

    It’s a viable life for somebody in a high risk group.

    • Replies: @moshe
    , @Anon
    , @anon
    , @Muggles
  89. @Reg Cæsar

    I’m not saying mass transit causes infection, I’m saying it facilitates infection due to drunk and heroin-addled bums practically living on the trains. They ride for hours and rebreathe air in an enclosed space with hundreds or thousands more people than an ordinary commuter would.

    These people raise any ordinary commuter’s likelihood of being on a train with a covid-infected person significantly higher than it would be if covid-infected people were distributed randomly.

    And the bums themselves are much likelier to catch it on a train than a normal rider would be, since they are in contact with a far greater and more varied number of riders: unlike commuters (who tend to stick to a schedule and thus ride with familiar faces) a bum who rides the train for eight hours will not travel with a partially static cohort.

    Being packed in with other people isn’t necesssary to cause infection. But being packed in with someone who is infected makes it likelier. If an infected person is always present, then riders are likelier to become infected than if these contacts occurred at random with some <1 probability.

    • Replies: @Reg Cæsar
  90. @Anonymous

    The World will only have stoic introverts remaining in the gene pool by 2025. A planet full of Cat Lady and Nebbishy Bookworms.

    The more important question is, will they have the apps and the courage to swipe right, or will humanity die out?

  91. @Je Suis Omar Mateen

    There is no dollar shortage. Fake News.

    You have no idea of which you speak. Let’s just say that repo for me has a totally different meaning than what repo is going to mean to you.

    • Replies: @Anonymous
  92. Anonymous[278] • Disclaimer says:
    @Je Suis Omar Mateen

    Many international debts are in terms of US Dollars to avoid changing value of local currencies. To pay off these debts, local assets (including local currencies) are exchanged for dollars. Supposedly it is these borrowers who had trouble getting dollars. Presumably US firms that found themselves without income used their capital to supply short term obligations rather than using it to buy foreign assets.

    • Replies: @leterip
  93. backup says:

    @steve Sailer

    In contrast, what if the virus was often spread in New York City by walking past somebody walking in the opposite direction on 42nd Street or going into a Duane Reade or whatever? Contact tracing would probably totally fail at finding these kind of infection-spreading events.

    In that case the secondary household attack rate should be massive. But one of the most baffling figures of this epidemic is that where ever you look, that figure is pretty low.

  94. @Jack D

    What?! No correction or argument from Jack D? What am I supposed to do with this comment, Jack?

    ;-}

    Some Americans still let their 10 y/o kids fly small planes if they can reach the rudder pedals. It’s more fun than a plow.

  95. @Hypnotoad666

    You lost me at “beam microwaves at my head”, Hypno. Before that I was on board with your idea.

    One, more thing, Rip Van Toad – ADS-B, bitchez! We don’t need no steeenking TRACON.

    • Replies: @Jim Christian
  96. @Hypnotoad666

    Dammit, you took my joke, man! I think. No, actually not, but that was a good one.

    I was going to recommend Steve take look into some of the super-spreaders that have been known to operate in Las Vegas, Nevada.

    • Replies: @Clyde
  97. Anonymous[413] • Disclaimer says:
    @eD

    I’ve been trying to find out the reason to manufacture this hysteria, and recent interviews Jim Sinclair, and Daniel Estulin (the latter posted by Kevin Barrett on the right hand links of the site of this website) offer support that shutting down the economy was the point.

    Derailing the economy was the only way to beat Trump in November. There’s your alternative theory that fits all the facts, and better.

    Better, because Trump and many others in the Admin and Republican Party have neither welcomed the arrival of the coronavirus nor been happy about shutting down of the economy. So much for the theory of some deep cabal of rulers engineering this because of the dollar.

  98. Anonymous[245] • Disclaimer says:
    @Sam Patch

    I’ve read Steve for nearly 2 decades now. He has done nothing wrong wrt CV. His classic articles on IQ, race and politics transformed my world view. Plenty of math/science/business informed realism.

    That same informed realism drives the blog even now. It wasn’t a mistake to crush the curve because the IFR has decreased because we had time to learn more about CV. Our capacity to crush and eliminate increases as time goes by as well, while maintaining normality to a reasonable extent. And Steve has been right on the math of R0 from the beginning and remains so.

    I have enough people I know who are at risk that at least one of them probably dies if they all contract it. I would rather each of them live the 10+ years they are likely to live. Steve is one of them.

    And it is still 10x plus worse than the flu with impacts to the HCS that cause additional deaths.

    https://www.healthline.com/health-news/why-covid-19-isnt-the-flu

    • Agree: James Speaks
    • Thanks: Inquiring Mind
    • Replies: @Sam Patch
  99. @Anonymous

    Agree.

    The first quarter of the twenty-first century will be noted by historians as the roll-back of the gains of the Enlightenment. On top of Bush the lessors crimes and Barry the Kenyans “Terror Tuesday’s” time set aside to decide who to murder this week, we have seen the return of Lese Majeste as a jail-able offense.
    The destruction of the scientific method: Ferguson’s IC model produces different results with identical imputs, and no- you can’t see the code. The Replication Crisis in that are laughingly called the “Social Sciences” has been roundly ignored by all but a few.
    The Cult of political correctness holds full sway- California arrests surfer while freeing felons, San Francisco houses the homeless and provides their drugs and alcohol, the liquor stores are open AA meetings are closed. As are churches. Cuomo slaughters thousands by deliberately introducing the disease to nursing homes full of the most vulnerable.
    And the are still stunningly stupid clowns who think authorizing the State tracking the movement of all people is a good idea.
    Truly astonishing.

  100. moshe says:
    @Dmon

    HOW MUCH bullshit can you people believe!

    Blood types!

    Yes, you can find information and even pre-print studies out of a select hospital in China or Russia claiming that “this” or “that” thing is more or less gonna kill yo children but how utterly dumb do you have to be to buy into it! And then to spread it!

    As I’ve said repeatedly I know ZERO about medicine but am apparently gifted with what ought to be common sense but apparently is not.

    And if your stupid and irresponsibly shared Blood Type gobblygook is shown to be true in around the world covid cases and not just in a few hospitals here and there then I’ll…what do you want? If there is a place where you and I could go place bets I’ll happily give you 10:1 odds.

    It’s one thing to repeat the same Dumbness that’s spouted by Fauci and Cuomo, it’s another to try and spread some Brand New BS in the name of your friends’ doctor.

    Sell your crap to mommies and millennials. They’ll buy.

    • Replies: @moshe
    , @anon
  101. moshe says:
    @moshe

    And no changing “global warming” to “climate change” when obviously there WILL be a difference somewhere among the blood types (or hair colors or names) for ANY disease or unrelated factor. I wanna see your A vs O stand pat in the worldwide data.

    I oppose worldwide literacy very very very strongly.

    Bring back the Church Index. Most people have no business reading and writing.

    P.S. No I’m not serious. I’m frustrated at the amount of written stupidity and blindness in the world and letting off steam.

  102. moshe says:
    @Pop Warner

    Fuck you.

    Keep your antisemitism to ron unz’s page. I understand he enjoys being told what a dirty worm he is. Jews are no more responsible for this fiasco than they are represented within any intelligent community.

    As with everything, Jews are overrepresented among the leadership of every intelligent endeavor. Most of the best skeptics and opposers of the coronahoax have been Jews. From February through today.

    So shove that up your veins, goy.

    • Replies: @Pop Warner
  103. @Reg Cæsar

    Reg, I have been to Hong Kong, Japan, Thailand and Singapore their subways and buses are not sleeper cars for the homeless and derelict, let alone people who are apparently sick. If you need a ride I will pick you up and you can nod off or fein sleep if I bore you. Stay safe my friend.

    • Agree: Daniel Williams
  104. @Buffalo Joe

    “Oh, and one more thing . In LA County, home to a 10 million people, Dr. Barbara Ferrer, the Director of Public Health, who sets the LA County Covid-19 rules, is not actually a medical doctor.”

    And PA’s Covid fight is lead by someone so dumb they don’t know what a woman is.
    https://www.advocate.com/health/2020/3/30/meet-transgender-doctor-leading-pennsylvanias-covid-19-response

  105. Steve publishes a viewpoint, different from his first thoughts, that shows that transmission of Covid-19 is harder than first believed. Some commenters pile on but I say thank you Steve. One of the biggest problems in America is that the MSM and politicians rarely walk back a misstep, a quote out of context or an outright lie, often printing or making libelous accustions. Then they wait for it to be dragged through a court before the matter is ajudicated. Now, in the meantime stay safe.

  106. Clyde says:
    @eD

    Thanks for the reminder on Jim Sinclair. Last time I was at his site was during the previous 2008-2011 crisis. I am reading it now.
    He is the oldest gold bug around. He must be 77-80 years old by now. He used to be on Wall Street week all time in the Louis Rukeyser era. His site is = https://www.jsmineset.com

  107. @James Speaks

    The Bill of Rights is pretty much useless if you’re dead, disabled, or famished.

    Tell that to the men who starved, suffered, or died defending it.

  108. @eD

    On his radio program, Larry Kudlow had an author who argued that business investment is at least 10% of the economy, and it isn’t really covered in government statistics. He argued that was why the post 2008 recovery was so slow, business investment was flat in a lot of places.

  109. Clyde says:
    @Achmed E. Newman

    I was going to recommend Steve take look into some of the super-spreaders that have been known to operate in Las Vegas, Nevada.

    I know you will appreciate that I know how to open up the Las Vegas casinos. Install fans all over the casino floor that blow the air upward. The higher the ceilings the better. The Injun casinos where I live are cavernous. This way all the Covid baddies get scattered, rendered ineffective. Same as when you are outdoors. I would also install the right nanometer UV lights all over. Powerful ones, installed with metal shields that make it impossible to look at the bulb directly.

    Also everyone in the casino wears face masks which will make poker even better anyway.

    • Replies: @Achmed E. Newman
    , @Travis
  110. @NOTA

    NOTA, laws without legisation are questionably enforceable and probably unconstitutional. Policies made concerning your health, by non medical experts, such as politicians and their appointed minions are also questionably enforceable and again probably unconstitutional. Rules are good, but to quote the duck in the movie “Babe”, this is bigger than rules. People usually obey laws and rules but now we are seeing a daily menu of new rules and laws that have a major effect on most peoples lives. I get that you can make and pass a law that says the speed limit is 65mph. But,how about you can go to the beach, but don’t sun bathe. Rules are not silly if they are destroying your life.

  111. Clyde says:
    @Jack D

    yesterday I saw an Amish boy who looked to be about 10 years old plowing a field with a six mule team –

    Lancaster, PA. I have been there a few times, saw the Lancaster farmer’s market too. Last time was about 1988 or so. The Amish fields are jammed close together on a somewhat hilly terrain, with hardly any windbreaks of trees. This is what Holland looks like.

    The best Amish food I had was their chicken soup with homemade dumplings. Now this is one clever way to stretch out chicken during hard times. Or anytime at all. 🙂

  112. moshe says:
    @Buffalo Joe

    Well that’s why China locked down Wuhan in the first place. They were curious about whether they could get away with it or if the West would call them before the Human Rights Council.

    They sold it to the West as “we’re fighting this disease here so you don’t have to fight it there”.

    And boy oh boy did it work!

    The Chinese however never would have guessed that Western Leaders would try it themselves…and succeed!

    I predict that when the dust settles we will see the Chinese having used this wonderful success to really give the middle finger to their personal/business and political/religious enemies back home.

    The very first lockdown, in Wuhan itself, was a tyranny stress test.

    • Thanks: Buffalo Joe
  113. @Anonymous

    Nobody knows anything.

    Including who “Anonymous” is.

  114. Anonymous[413] • Disclaimer says:
    @Buzz Mohawk

    I have been finished with gay people for many, many years.

    What experience caused you to change your attitude?

    • Replies: @Buzz Mohawk
  115. Anonymous[413] • Disclaimer says:
    @Robert Dolan

    There was no justification to wreck the economy and it will take years to recover from this fiasco.

    What do you think should have been done instead?

    • Replies: @Robert Dolan
  116. anon[217] • Disclaimer says:

    Suppose I’m at some kind of public gathering in the open. Like a political rally, or other demonstration. All the participants are keeping their distance from each other, like up country Swedes or something.

    Then, at a distance where no one can see her, a NYT journo-list deploys her camera with a long focal length lens set to maximize the depth of field! ZOMG! All of us are suddenly crowded together in the frame! Social distance is demolished as anyone can plainly see just by looking at the image!

    Would this make it easier for someone to catch the bug?
    Just worrying.

  117. @Hypnotoad666

    For fun you can download the Flightradar24 app onto your cell phone and track aircraft.

    Also, your PC.

    https://www.flightradar24.com/

  118. moshe says:
    @Anonymous

    Cannot believe iSteve posted this sentence. Is Steve’s wife posting today?

    You’re not the only one wondering whether some female or other has been chipping in under the “Steve Sailer” title, particularly in the comments.

    It’s super duper obvious that Steve is under an increased amount of female influence lately but I would like to know along with many other people here whether people other than Steve have been writing under his name. This whole, “be a gentleman” thing and some of his other comment responses sound like things that no one but a woman or a soyboy would write.

    If indeed it is all Steve I’d be very curious to know whether his diet has changed lately and if so, how. I’m not much of a believer in tap water making frogs gay but there’s a level of estrogen influence here that needs some explaining.

    It could simply be that Steve’s wife has been bored lately and currently has the time and interest to read and personally critique his writing but if indeed other people have been commenting under his name it would be fair to know.

    • Replies: @AKAHorace
  119. @Clyde

    Haha, maybe I’d have a fighting chance at poker then, Clyde! If the mob still ran the place, I bet the Covid baddies would be lying in a ditch, after Joe Pesci had dealt with them. “C’mon, Mr. Pesci, I’m just bustin’ balls heah.”.

  120. @BIG DUCK

    No, the experts said it was an equal opportunity killer that would kill off young white high school couples from Iowa. It would then proceed to kill tens of millions average hardworking moral normal Americans according to their computer models.

    Yes, they lied. People pointed it out at the time, made rational arguments against them. You are not making any rational arguments. They laughed at Galileo, they also laughed at Donald Duck. You know which one you are. You probably don’t even know what a computer model is. You have no idea what you’re talking about.

    • Replies: @moshe
  121. @Daniel Williams

    I’m not saying mass transit causes infection, I’m saying it facilitates infection due to drunk and heroin-addled bums practically living on the trains.

    Cities and transit systems vary widely in what they tolerate. Accommodation for the homeless in some the more “generous” ones is not an option… it’s a legal requirement. It’s there or jail.

  122. moshe says:
    @Anonymous

    I literally have triple concertina around the house, an area surveillance system, and power shutters on all windows/doors of the house, plus a few more security features. The house is out in the countryside, looking at the woods, not visible from the road. Most things are delivered by mail/commercial vehicles, and I go to town for groceries about every 2 weeks, with mask and gloves (no goggles, but then there are no COVID-1 cases in my county). Social interaction is limited to immediate neighbors and construction contractors

    .

    You are simultaneously rich and pathetic.

    It’s true what they say about how it’s better to be a live dog than a dead lion.

    • Replies: @kaganovitch
    , @Anonymous
  123. @James Speaks

    No, James, WE don’t need to search for any balance. What you need to do is quit worrying about what WE should be made to do, and take care of yourself. If you are gonna drive yourselves into paranoia worrying about all transmission mechanisms, etc, then, by all means, knock yourselves out.

    Leave me the hell out of it. I didn’t sign up to live in a Police State. We all know this is not the next Black Plague, and anybody with any damn perspective at all knew that 2 months ago. Can you understand that?

    • Replies: @James Speaks
  124. Anon[230] • Disclaimer says:
    @James Speaks

    The reason we have a Bill of Rights in the first place was because elites abusing their power have caused a lot of the ‘little people’ throughout history to become dead, disabled and famished.

    • Replies: @James Speaks
  125. Anon[230] • Disclaimer says:
    @Anonymous

    You need a psychiatrist more than you need a vaccine. I suggest you move to a place that’s really far away from everywhere else and take determined steps to de-stress your life. A change a diet and more outdoor exercise will help you.

  126. Anonymous[413] • Disclaimer says:
    @The Alarmist

    You have no idea of which you speak. Let’s just say that repo for me has a totally different meaning than what repo is going to mean to you.

    Could you please explain?

    • Replies: @The Alarmist
  127. Anonymous[413] • Disclaimer says:

    Science Magazine: Study asserting asymptomatic transmission was flawed

    https://www.sciencemag.org/news/2020/02/paper-non-symptomatic-patient-transmitting-coronavirus-wrong

    Paging res and Steve.

    • Replies: @res
  128. moshe says:
    @Alexander Turok

    Your computer model has turned out to be solid as Iraq.

    • Thanks: Manfred Arcane
  129. Jack D says:
    @epebble

    Should have taken a picture but I didn’t. The Amish don’t like to have their pictures taken for the most part. This was in Lancaster County, PA which is maybe 1 hr west of the skyscrapers of Philadelphia. Might as well be a different century. It’s summer now so all the children were going barefoot in their Little House on the Prairie dresses.

    However, they sew their own clothes so they have been sewing up masks and every farm stand had masks for sale.

    • Thanks: epebble
    • Replies: @Buffalo Joe
  130. @moshe

    It’s true what they say about how it’s better to be a live dog than a dead lion.

    Ecclesiastes is not “they”

    • Replies: @moshe
  131. moshe says:
    @kaganovitch

    Sure is!

    קהלת is another way of saying ‘de velt zugt’

    check mate 😉

    • Replies: @kaganovitch
  132. @Cortes

    Bonking in a bus shelter is never reasonable.

    • Replies: @Cortes
  133. @Hypnotoad666

    Its Detroit. It was probably strippers. I ain’t even lyin’!

  134. @Jack D

    Jack, the Amish are a most interesting culture. We drove through Amish country last week, Rte 62 south of Buffalo some fields plowed, too wet, but all the sawmills working. And for those who don’t know, they do drink beer, hard cider and wine and smoke tobacco, mostly pipes. It’s like a time warp.

  135. anon[102] • Disclaimer says:
    @Anonymous

    Just to show that it can be done:

    Are you related in any way to the Red Blooded American Boomer?

  136. anon[102] • Disclaimer says:
    @moshe

    I’ve said repeatedly I know ZERO about medicine

    That has been obvious for a while. In fact, it’s not clear if there is anything you know more than ZERO about.

    I’m frustrated at the amount of written stupidity and blindness in the world

    Do you have a mirror?

  137. Alden says:
    @Jack D

    There have been Clorox wipes ADs on TV for years. They show a wipe container always out on the kitchen counter. The actress says she wipes down her whole kitchen before she cooks every meal.

    I believe covid hoax was to destroy the global economy and ruin Trumps chance for re election.

    I wonder why the airlines Denny’s IHOP fast food and other big businesses haven’t resisted. I was in 2 major airports last week and they were empty. Only 9 people on the plane, more workers than passengers. The gas companies everyone at home no one commuting or going anywhere.

    Either big business has acquiesced in its destruction or they will be eventually rewarded.
    I just can’t see the chamber of commerce airlines national restaurant association federated department stores etc just agreeing to destruction.

    I’m glad the colleges are closed and thinking about not opening in September.

  138. res says:
    @Anonymous

    Thanks. This excerpt speaks to a discussion Peter Frost and I (among others) had here:
    https://www.unz.com/isteve/is-there-any-evidence-that-1-3rd-of-stockholm-really-has-been-infected/#comment-3894005

    Even if the patient’s symptoms were unspecific, it wasn’t an asymptomatic infection, says Isaac Bogoch, an infectious disease specialist at the University of Toronto. “Asymptomatic means no symptoms, zero. It means you feel fine. We have to be careful with our words.”

    That article was from early February. Does anyone have a copy of the RKI letter to the NEJM or more recent information?

    • Replies: @Anonymous
    , @Kratoklastes
  139. @Buzz Mohawk

    No doubt (?) the Dear Leader has read Ron Unz’s post on the Covid being man made by our intrepid military. Thanks for your service!
    And now there’s word from Australia that they’ve discovered that the virus is better able to penetrate human cells than animal cells.
    Maybe the thought of some bio-engineered crap getting into his lungs has him a tad worried.
    I wonder if Lance Welton,like some Shakespearean character,will return in the 3rd act, to proclaim that he was right,that this virus kills commies!(If they’re Chinese,that is.)
    You’d think Derb would be the worried guy.
    But I am grateful for this blog,because without it,I would probably be a full-on denier. And that’s probably wrong.

  140. Mr. Anon says:
    @James Speaks

    We are searching for the best balance between limiting the spread of the disease and resuming quality of life measures. Can you understand that?

    No, perhaps you and those who think like you are searching for that. The rest of us are searching for the society we used to have – the one that didn’t look like a fever-dream of Franz Kafka crossed with an episode of Monk, in which government functionaries and technocrats claim the right to put us all under house arrest indefinitely.

    • Replies: @Achmed E. Newman
  141. Clyde says:
    @prosa123

    After just two months of being closed 87% of Manhattan restaurants were unable to make their May 1 rent payments.

    While in LA the cruel, dumb, degenerate libs who govern, Garcetti et al., have extended the Los Angeles lockdown into the end of July. This will bankrupt a thousand+ immigrant owned small businesses and restaurants. And here we thought that sanctuary cites loved all immigrants, no matter how illegal they might be. Immigrant owners and their legal/illegal immigrant employees are being tossed to the wolves. Devious, degenerate, dastardly, dilettante libs in the LA government don’t care a whit, in this Covid19 war the public sector is waging on the private sector. This same war is obviously being played out in many other lib/Democrat run states and cities.
    Seriously! God help us all!

  142. Wouldn’t want to be trapped in a besieged castle with a crew of libertarians.

    “There is no enemy, it’s a hoax!
    “No one can force me to attend combat drills.’
    ‘What if they do conquer us, some will live!”
    “The generals have grossly overestimated the risk of defeat.“
    “Anyone should be free to decide on their own whether to surrender or fight!”
    “No one can tell me to wear armor. Armor kills more people than it saves.”
    All killed or sold into slavery.

    Never heard of negative externalities. Can dump pig shit on your lawn and shout at you that it’s your problem. Can’t make me do anything! Unfortunately, I was a libertarian once, age 13-16, still ashamed of it.

    • Thanks: HA
  143. @Anonymous

    We should have done what the Swedes did…..with pinpoint targeting of old folks and nursing homes, and allowed the under 65 work force and businesses to continue with masks and social distancing when possible. I believe the Swedes cancelled gatherings of 50 or more. In any case, their numbers are better than many countries that locked down.

    The Swedish government trusted their citizens to do what they could to mitigate the spread.

    And if diversity wants to have drunken orgies and hiphop parties, so be it. Let them do as they wish.

    NYC is a disaster because Cuomo is an idiot. WND has a piece today where he responded to the massive death toll at nursing homes, and apparently he said something to the effect that, “Old people are going to die anyway.”

    The obvious thing that should have been done was to protect the demographic most at risk, and in that America failed. And this fact leads me to believe that there was never a sincere effort to help our citizens, and some other agenda was in play.

  144. MBlanc46 says:

    Muge Cevik. What a wonderful old Scottish name.

  145. @Anonymous

    It was more than one experience, but let’s just say I got tired of them. My comment was over the top, and Alexander Turok was justified in clicking the Troll button.

  146. @Cortes

    “But did you update your own insurance policies before putting on the disco duds and stepping on out? Do your hangouts have CCTV which might have images of you putting yourself at risk of being infected and which your insurer might obtain?”

    I’m not aware of insurers denying coverage for sniffles-related care, never heard of that in my life. Nietzschian Süpermännen like me don’t see a doctor for any reason much less the sniffles.

  147. @Robert Dolan

    I saw a clip of Golda Meir in some documentary on the 1973 Yom Kippor War where she said: ‘For us to live will require sacrifices.’

    So it is in war.

  148. Mike1 says:

    If you want a dataset of close to perfect contact tracing look here: https://www.health.govt.nz/our-work/diseases-and-conditions/covid-19-novel-coronavirus/covid-19-current-situation/covid-19-current-cases

    And here: https://www.health.govt.nz/our-work/diseases-and-conditions/covid-19-novel-coronavirus/covid-19-current-situation/covid-19-current-cases/covid-19-significant-clusters

    News reports can also fill in specifics on almost all the clusters. This closes the argument over what SHOULD have been done. Now that the virus is unstoppable in the US the next question is how to live with it.

  149. @Anonymous

    “IF TRUMP HAD BALLS HE WOULD MOCK THE OUTDOOR MASK WEARERS.”

    Preach it brother. You’re shouting what we’re all saying using our indoor voice.

    Huge multinational retailer packed with humanity: permitted.

    Sleepy neighborhood saloon with a few regulars sitting at the bar: illegal.

    Etc, etc, the examples are legion that make it blinding clear that Democratic governors don’t believe kovums is a big deal. And they have promised the sequel to CoronaHoax will debut this fall, so get ready for more Kovid Kayfabe Kabuki in blue states. Ugh.

  150. @Dmon

    Finally know someone who got it. Neighbor lady, early 50’s. Never in mortal danger, but said she felt incredibly weak.

    PiltdownNiece5 had it, and is still pretty wobbly, ten days after she was decleared cleared. She was ill for about two weeks, and says it felt like no other fever or illness she had experienced. Fever, aches in odd places, exhausting restlessness, killer headaches—all quite different from the flu. She’s 24 and athletic.

    Fwiw.

    • Replies: @Anonymous
  151. @Mr. Anon

    a fever-dream of Franz Kafka crossed with an episode of Monk, …

    Haha! That’s coming from a guy who doesn’t know who Franz Kafka is (nor cares), but used to watch Monk. You had another really good comment today that I meant to reply to. I’ll find it.

  152. @Achmed E. Newman

    No, James, WE don’t need to search for any balance. What you need to do is quit worrying about what WE should be made to do, and take care of yourself. If you are gonna drive yourselves into paranoia worrying about all transmission mechanisms, etc, then, by all means, knock yourselves out.

    Paranoia is the belief somebody is out to get you. It’s not paranoia when I use a paper toilet seat cover in a public restroom, nor when I use a paper towel to open and inward opening door, or push it open with my foot if it opens outward.

    In the middle ages it was thought night air was responsible for the plague; we now know it was fleas from rats and that the black cat you killed because it was the devil’s minion might have saved your life. A little knowledge is useful; a little ignorance is dangerous.

    WE means myself and other rational people. You may exclude yourself from that set.

    Leave me the hell out of it. I didn’t sign up to live in a Police State. We all know this is not the next Black Plague, and anybody with any damn perspective at all knew that 2 months ago. Can you understand that?

    Nobody expects the Spanish Inquisition either. This disease is not the Black Plague; it is more like H5N1 or measles in naive populations.

  153. @Anon

    Your right to swing your fist ends where my nose begins.

    Your right to congregate in public, talk loudly, laugh, not wear a mask and otherwise behave like a foron ends where my need for clean air begins.

    Your argument is like the people who demand their right to pray up to and including the right to pray for a divine intervention from a disease antibiotics could cure.

  154. @James Speaks

    What I described in my first comment is very much paranoia. It doesn’t have to be about other people, James. How would you describe Howard Hughes, at the end there? I kinda doubt all your toilet-seat covering and paper-towel handling saved you from anything, but that’s the low-level sort that I understand. This stuff here is hysteria. It’s the kind of thing that I would expect from a country run by menopausal women. I thought she lost(?)

    • Replies: @James Speaks
  155. Sam Patch says:
    @Anonymous

    I was with you until your last two paragraphs. Your appeal to “enough people you know” colors your take as fallacious IMHO, and the Healthline source is horrible. Even #fakenews WaPo scare article today only claimed 8x higher fatality than flu. If I had to put money on it, I’d say in reality probably 2 to 3 times greater CFR when all is said and done.

    • Replies: @Anonymous
  156. Sam Patch says:
    @James Speaks

    Sure you’re not a bot/Fed?!

    • Replies: @James Speaks
  157. Mr. Anon says:

    But why isn’t everyone admitted to the hospital being asked about this? Why aren’t we finding out who they live with, or who visited them, and tracking down where they’ve been? The lost opportunities are staggering.

    Why it’s almost as if actually stopping the spread of the virus was beside the point.

  158. @Sam Patch

    Sure you’re not a bot/Fed?!

    No. I am not sure.

    • Replies: @James Speaks
  159. @James Speaks

    No. I am not sure.

    That is something a bot would write.

    • Replies: @anon
  160. @Achmed E. Newman

    COVID-19 will do a nice job of incapacitating people who lack discipline and self control.

    What I described in my first comment is very much paranoia.

    That’s not paranoia; this is paranoia:

    “COVID-19 was designed to rid the earth of people who lack discipline and self control,” he broadcast with baited breath.

    • Replies: @Achmed E. Newman
  161. @Hypnotoad666

    The super-spreader was probably a clerk at the Dunkin’ Donuts.

    In Portland, Maine, back in the ’70s, Dunkin was where the local harlots hung out and sought trade.

  162. anon[322] • Disclaimer says:
    @James Speaks

    That is something a bot would write.

    Or a Fed. Or a Fed-bot. Or…

    • Replies: @James Speaks
  163. leterip says:
    @Anonymous

    Partly correct but the reality is different and sort of bizarre. There are dollars which are created by US banks and there are “dollars” created by non-us banks which are often referred to a eurodollars even if the bank creating them is in say asia. The dollars created by USA banks are legally guaranteed by the federal reserve. The eurodollars are only guaranteed by the foreign banks. Of course the US dollar is considered safer in times of financial stress. The so called dollar shortage is really describing the increasing difficulty of swapping between the two types of dollars. Banks and other entities have become more reluctant to even make short term swaps of the two types of dollars. It is critical that it is easy to swap dollars, at least for short periods, or trade will grind to a halt. So it is correct to say the there is concern about dollar shortages. What does not make sense is how blowing up the worlds economy would not make the dollar shortage worse.

  164. leterip says:
    @Mike1

    Many would disagree that New Zealand has executed the approach we all should have taken. They will have to keep their borders closed for years until a vaccine is available if the want to keep CV out. They are simply delaying the inevitable and will shortly have to allow the virus to sweep through their country as well. There was never a time when the world was going to be able to implement the NZ approach to contain CV. All countries are eventually going to take the Swedish approach of letting the virus infect most people while trying, as best as possible, to protect the vulnerable.

    • Replies: @Mike1
  165. @anon

    “Why do you think I am a Fed-bot?” he asked mechanically.

  166. @Cortes

    This is so much like a Python sketch.

    “Wednesbury’s fourth formers are not permitted to attend the cinema on Sunday. Thus they shag their watery tarts in the bus shelters…”

    • Replies: @Cortes
  167. Anonymous[265] • Disclaimer says:
    @moshe

    Hi, moshe. Your comment was expected. This is a serious answer to it.

    Not rich, ex Special Forces, considerable training in civilian self defense, 100% in accordance with all laws, have some idea about how raids are done, this setup stops home invasion (and several stealth/deception attacks) long enough for a reaction force (the police) to get here.

    See: https://www.creditdonkey.com/home-invasion-statistics.html for some statistics. Look at some of the videos at: https://www.youtube.com/results?search_query=home+invasion.
    Then, see Giliam, _Sheep No More_. Work out an threat assessment, and see whether you’re not worshiping either Cthulu or Fortuna, your prayer being “consume me after you consume all the others”.

    You might also want to look at the “retired professor meets bad guy” scene in Wolfe’s_A Man In Full_.

    A few pointers should you decide you want to do something more than worshiping Cthulu:

    * Conventional cameras are of help only to police and your heirs — both can see you getting shot in living color with a sound tract. Doesn’t help you.

    * I spent two _years_ looking for an alternative to a triple concertina barrier. The spec was “delays home invaders for minimum of 30 seconds”. No professional installer, including one who built fences for prisons, would say their fences could do that; all fences for sale were vulnerable to breaching methods that took less than 30 seconds.

    * Be sure to build two fences: the triple concertina, but in front of it a light fence suitable for stopping the curious, drunks, and children up to age 10 or so. Post signs on this barrier fence — “no trespassing” and “danger, barbed wire”. That saves you from inadvertently causing the injury of somebody of limited capacity. It also helps in detecting stealth attempts to cut the concertina.

    Some comments on your comment:

    * For bloody _decades_ I became a pacifist. You idiots have let the country get dangerous enough that i just can’t do it any more. If nothing else, I have dependents who need security. You won’t protect yourself, which is bad enough, and it appears that you won’t let me protect myself either.

    * You fatten the bad guys by leading with your chin if you want. Frankly, I’d rather you didn’t lead with your chin. The more sheep, the more predators to prey upon them, the more predators to prey on _me_ when they’ve taken you out.

    * Or, perhaps you’re in a “gated community” in a well policed area. In which case you’ve realized the same thing I have, but have more money and aren’t a “do it yourself” type, but apparently are somewhat hypocritical. You might be surprised how little real security a gated community gives you, especially after the Treyvon Martin case, which makes monitoring for anomalous visitors a somewhat risky affair for the monitors.

    * If you want a safe neighborhood, take a look at Toqueville’s _Democracy in Ameria_ and its comparison of the French magistrate with the American sheriff. Areas are safe because physically dangerous criminals and criminal gangs are located and neutralized by various means. That’s not happening, largely because the “public supervision” method has been replaced by what appears to be judicially enforced intersectionality. Note that the danger from the preceding is apt to get worse before it gets better, thanks to current US political disputes.

    Note on actual purpose behind my original posting:

    In the meantime, I’ve given a demonstration that houses can have real security against current and most anticipated threat levels. Should there be somebody particularly vulnerable to COVID-1, I’ve given a demonstration that the person can live with minimal exposure to the SARS-CoV-1 virus and with minimal chance of being classified by the bad guys and picked off by a home invasion. Those in this category might take note.

  168. @ Steve
    “… In contrast, what if the virus was often spread in New York City by walking past somebody walking in the opposite direction on 42nd Street or going into a Duane Reade or whatever?…”

    Wouldn’t in that case the R0 be far higher than the (so far) undisputed 2-3?

    • Replies: @Steve Sailer
  169. @viennacapitalist

    I don’t think contact tracing in the U.S. is good enough to figure out what percentage of transmissions were traced. In South Korea, maybe, so we might get the answer to your question from them.

    The question I’m worried about after I’ve been publicizing these track and trace studies of superspreader events is: what fraction of total cases are accounted for by these kind of easily track and traceable events like Zumba classes, choir practices, and wedding receptions where there are guest lists and the like?

    Probably quite a high percentage can be attributed to in-home spread, nursing homes and other enclosed institutions, or lengthy face to face conversations. But those are easy to trace. Contact tracing works best when contacts know each other or somebody can look up who they were.

    Nobody in the U.S. can trace infections on public transit, shopping, or walking down a busy sidewalk, what I would call anonymous transmission. What % of NYC transmissions were anonymous? 2.5%? 25%? I could imagine either number being plausible. Say you walked past 2,000 people on 42nd St. every day from Feb. 15 to March 15 and 5% or 100 were infected on average each day. What is your likelihood of contracting the virus from these 3,000 en passant contacts? And would it be weaker because you weren’t in contact for them for very long, or would it grow within you? (This is the long-running viral load controversy.)

    The South Koreans now have these 1984ish apps for tracking smartphones where people come within a few meters of each other. So perhaps we will be seeing some data out of Korea that could answer this question.

    My guess at present is that it’s okay to walk to work, but just don’t have fun with other people. But that could well be wrong.

  170. Cortes says:
    @Reg Cæsar

    Less Monty Python than Jurassic Park, surely?

  171. @James Speaks

    That’s not from my comment. I don’t get your point.

    • Replies: @James Speaks
  172. Anonymous[582] • Disclaimer says:
    @Sam Patch

    Parents, in-laws, family friends, work colleagues, people I know through work. There would be at least 20 of them, and probably the average risk would be maybe 1 in 15 due to age/health. I have some kids with asthma as well, and a mild case myself.

    And our host of course.

    Do you think I make these people up? Surprising as it may seem I am friendly with some people oldsr than myself and don’t secretly wish them an early death.

    • Replies: @Sam Patch
  173. Anonymous[160] • Disclaimer says:
    @PiltdownMan

    Fever, aches in odd places, exhausting restlessness, killer headaches—all quite different from the flu. She’s 24 and athletic.

    What is “exhausting restlessness”?

    • Replies: @PiltdownMan
  174. Anonymous[160] • Disclaimer says:
    @James Speaks

    This disease is not the Black Plague; it is more like H5N1 or measles in naive populations.

    Naive or native?

    • Replies: @res
  175. @Achmed E. Newman

    One, more thing, Rip Van Toad – ADS-B, bitchez!

    That’s an expensive beacon. At one to a person, we’re talking a CoronaVirus bonus check each.

    How you doin’, Achhie? You’ve certainly had your usual say in this one. Speaking of beacons and airplanes, I went back to Boston outta Tampa on a new JetBlue A321 Neo three weeks back, couldn’t have been forty souls on board. Hell of an airplane, rockets up there quickly with such a light load. Brand new touch screens and they weren’t covered. They clean every screen I guess. No booze anywhere unfortunately and the airport (TPA) was spooky-empty, everything closed except for the smoking shack at Gate 12. Logan too. With all the freaky new guidelines at Logan, I threw new gums on the car and drove back down to Tampa/New Port Richey instead of flying. I gotta brother coming off the immune-therapy drugs taken for a lung cancer, he’s a mess and needs help. Roads were empty except for trucks, very VERY few cars the entire stretch of I81 and I-75. Freakishly high speeds, no cops anywhere. Easiest 1600 miles I ever made on four (or two) wheels. Cheap gasoline too. A new golden age for L.D. auto-travel.

    • Replies: @Achmed E. Newman
  176. @Steve Sailer

    Nobody in the U.S. can trace infections on public transit, shopping, or walking down a busy sidewalk, what I would call anonymous transmission.

    There are exabytes of this information sitting in Utah. I bet you a certain government agency whose name we dare not speak is already capable of very detailed contact tracing.

    https://www.rt.com/news/utah-data-center-spy-789/

  177. Travis says:
    @Clyde

    good idea….also the decks which shuffle the cards need to have an ultraviolet lamp to kill any virus on the cards…..also need to expose the chips to ultraviolet lamp,

    Amazing that we can find no published reports of AC dealers dying from COVID19, as they are handling the chips and cards and dice constantly, in close proximity to dozens of people for hours at a time. …yet Atlantic County did not have too many cases, compared to the counties in North Jersey.

    Since Atlantic City casinos have been unionized for some time, the typical cocktail waitress is pushing 60 years old and the average age of a dealer is also around 55 years old.. Yet there was not an epidemic among these workers, despite working closely with clients and handling money, chips and cards touched by dozens of people each hour they are working. Could be due to the smoke filled atmosphere, as nicotine is known to prevent COVID19. While the poker rooms are smoke free, the table games are filled with smokers.

  178. @Anonymous

    A planet full of Cat Lady and Nebbishy Bookworms.

    That’s my tribe – can’t wait!

  179. Erik L says:
    @Steve Sailer

    This is the wrong way to think about it. If you take a walk every day and most people aren’t wearing masks, how often would a random stranger cough within your six foot radius? Once a week? Maybe once a month? What is the chance that a random stranger you pass, the random one who happens to cough when he is within your 6 foot radius, has an active case of COVID-19? Then multiply that by the very small chance that one cough could give it to you.

    I go through similar situations on my own blog and could try to run through this one if it isn’t obvious. The chance is negligible. It isn’t zero, but it is much lower than many other chances you routinely took with your life and health before COVID-19.

    • Agree: Travis
    • Replies: @Travis
  180. Anonymous[304] • Disclaimer says:
    @Steve Sailer

    You can reduce the number of samples needed to make a good guess at reality _if_ you can take a random sample. The idea is to take fewer samples at first from the entire population. If you can then identify subsets of highest activity, run the next round of tests on these subsets. Minimizing error in the more active subset also minimizes error in estimated total number of cases. This is called “stratified sampling”.

    The problem is to get a random sample. It’s hard work, and quite often interfered with by political advocacy (as the 2016 US Presidential election demonstrated so memorably). Additionally, many people hide from attempts at enumeration and are in a position to make collection of a random sample very difficult or even prohibitively expensive (intersectionality — those most afflicted obstruct measurement the most).

    Still, one can approximate a random sample to find most active subsets, and continue looking for other active subsets. That would be feasible with existing resources.

    So far, I haven’t seen a hint that stratified sampling has been attempted in any systematic way. Perhaps somebody who is more familiar with the literature of this area could point out such an attempt; it would be appreciated.

  181. @moshe

    Ah, you’re a clever fellow.

  182. Anonymous[304] • Disclaimer says:
    @Bill Jones

    We’re ruled by, ah, half bright managers /hoodlums who say things like “I want a model of this, and quickly”, then accept as gold anything plausible (and consistent with their career plans) that they are given.
    Again, intellectual structure doesn’t imply fidelity to reality. Astrology, for example, in the sense of celestial events determining events on Earth, is excellent in predicting when one should plant and harvest crops. It has made human agricultural and industrial societies possible. It has a marvelous intellectual structure, but isn’t reliable _beyond_ predicting seasonally dependent events.

    Models, as now used, are much like astrology. They needn’t be — weather models are actually useful — but in most manager’s hands they are exactly like misapplied astrology.

  183. @Daniel Williams

    “Hairdressers and bartenders are demanding to be paid indefinitely to do nothing because they’re too scared to go back to work.”

    …and thus Universal Basic Income slouches towards Bethlehem to be born.

  184. res says:
    @Mike1

    Thanks! Based on that, New Zealand is looking like a poster country for the elimination approach.

    Are you familiar with the NZ situation in detail? Have they done statistical testing to estimate the overall infection rate? I ask because they are currently showing a CFR of 1.4% and I would like to understand how that relates to their IFR. The age distribution might be of interest to others.

    It helps that NZ is an island(s), but I still find the response impressive. One good feature of NZ as a case study is its seasons are opposite from the US so it will offer a look at what happens during a flu season before we get to ours.

    But I think leterip raises good points, both about the applicability of this approach to the US and world in the first place (vs. islands) and the need to keep external travel restrictions active over the long term.

    They have detailed information on their border controls at that site. I think it is worth a look.
    https://www.health.govt.nz/our-work/diseases-and-conditions/covid-19-novel-coronavirus/covid-19-current-situation/covid-19-border-controls

    • Replies: @Mike1
  185. res says:
    @Anonymous

    Naive population is a common term in this context. It means a population which has not yet been exposed to the disease. It is sometimes prefaced with “immunologically” which adds clarity.

    It happens that native populations often are or have been immunologically naive which can make things confusing.

    P.S. For examples, search for “disease naive population” without quotes in Google. And note that Google says “Did you mean: disease native population” as well as giving the more useful results.

    • Thanks: James Speaks
    • Replies: @Anonymous
  186. Anonymous[160] • Disclaimer says:
    @res

    Thank you

  187. Anonymous[160] • Disclaimer says:
    @res

    Thank you.

  188. @Jim Christian

    I’m doing just fine, Jim. Yes, they are fogging the planes with some such material, then cleaning the heck out of them. Now they are not allowing anyone but families on the same ticket to sit together, so nobody in middle seats. In those 319s/320s/321s that you’ve been riding on, and 737s and 757s, that means just under 66% of seats is the new capacity (it’s a bit under due to 1st class). In the McDonnel-Douglas planes, the MD-80s-90s and 717 (just a short MD-something) it’s 60%. In an RJ, it is only 50%!

    Yes, they climb like bats out of Hell with those kinds of loads that you (and I) have seen. When you estimated souls on board, did you add the crewmembers (5) and then subtract out the lawyers? (Old joke, I guess.)

    Did you mean that you were going freakishly fast, or other cars on the road, or both, Jim? I’ve written this before, but a friend who is a car guy got his sports car off the on-ramp up to 110 mph really quick and got pulled right away. He told the cop that he was trying to practice social distancing- 10 minutes later – 6 point and $350.

    AGREED about the new golden age of travel, but it’s only temporary. Enjoy!

    • Replies: @PiltdownMan
  189. J1234 says:

    The data show that nine percent of infected people are responsible for 80% of the transmissions, she says.

    And then there’s the “loser” factor: People that don’t give a rat’s ass about anything, even their health, let alone the health of others.

    I’m guessing that the infected in China were mostly conscientious people, but overcrowding and culture made spread of the contagion inevitable. But as that bus driver who died in Detroit said, there were people coughing all over his bus without even a thought to viral spread. It would be interesting to ponder how different things would’ve turned out in the US had there been a lot less losers. And no, I don’t mean poor people. There are millions of middle class and upper middle class losers, and have been for decades.

    • Replies: @Anonymous
  190. Travis says:
    @Erik L

    I walk 2 miles each day, and pass about 8 strangers during my walk, over half are wearing masks. Going to the grocery store is a much bigger risk, as it is inside without sunlight or wind to blow the virus away, with hundreds of people slowly walking around the store , then waiting in line etc…

    The risks of various activities is not too difficult to judge. Spending 15 minutes talking to people or riding in crowded subway or bus must be more risky than walking along the beach or in a park.

    People should be free to make their own decisions. I doubt many 70 year-olds will be going to the a gym to exercise, or taking the bus. Not many elderly men went to my local Y prior to this pandemic anyway. When we start to open up we should not expect a surge in COVID19 , as most of the nursing homes around the NY metro area have already been infected, Which is why half the deaths in NJ and PA have been among nursing homes. The elderly can continue to stay locked in their homes when they end the lockdowns. They have no need to work , as most of them live off Social Security and pensions.

    We need to end the lockdowns now, let the young people go back to their lives. We flattened the curve, and never ran out of hospital beds. There are tremendous benefits to opening up now, during the summer when infections will be lower. We need more people to get infected to get closer to herd immunity, before the winter when the second wave starts. Young people will be the first to start going to bars and clubs and gyms, and they have little to worry about. This will make it safer for the elderly in the fall if more younger people gain immunity over the next 6 months. With the hospitals now mostly empty we should be encouraging young people to get infected this summer, while the elderly stay safe at home. If we continue the lockdowns it will be much worse in the winter.

    • Agree: Cortes
    • Replies: @Anonymous
    , @Erik L
  191. Muggles says:
    @Anonymous

    >>It’s a viable life for somebody in a high risk group.<<

    You didn't mention what make you "high risk" other than your evident paranoia. I assume you live alone. Which means your biggest threat is having a medical incident which renders you unable to move, call, etc.

    Either indoors or more likely outdoors, where you are constantly "checking the perimeter." Lots of accidents happen in rural areas, which normally take a lot of gear to keep mowed, clean, repaired, fed and watered. Now maybe you have someone who checks on you regularly. But if you can't answer your phone, how many actual friends does someone like you have?

    As to your triple concertina wire fence, etc. you'd be better off with say, three dogs. They are good company and good for your mental health, which you seem to need. Also for rural security they can't be beat. One large, one medium and one small. The small one will be the loudest, usually. The other two will do the follow up biting, snapping, etc. Just not too aggressive or if they get hungry enough, you might end up as dinner for starving animals, all helpless and all, laying in your own urine and blood.

    Hey, if you're going to be a recluse, you'd better know what the real threats are. A good friend of mine in his mid 50s, living w/ his wife in the sticks about 45 minutes from a hospital had two heart attacks. He survived the first one. Lost weight, took meds, etc. but three months later died from the second one while being driven to town. The WuFlu is probably not your biggest risk.

    • Replies: @Anonymous
  192. Mike1 says:
    @res

    I am familiar with the details. NZ has one of the highest real world testing rates and it has been easy (and free) to get a test. They are not testing returning NZers at the border but they do go into a mandatory quarantine. The quarantine is a five star hotel but there is no realistic way to leave.

    I think the IFR can be a bit of a rabbit hole due to the assumption that we actually know what that rate is with the flu. NZ has no cases for a very long time where they don’t know the exact transmission. Usually from the same quarantined household.

    Personally I think the US should have literally shut the borders (and I held this opinion in January). A functioning internal economy would have been extraordinarily powerful in a world shut by Covid. The US is just a lot of islands stitched together in the same way the Los Angeles is a collection of villages.

  193. @Mike1

    If you want a dataset of close to perfect contact tracing look here:

    NZ and Australia are both on the verge of going through their flu seasons, which should start in late May and end around August. We’ll see how that pans out.

    • Replies: @Steve Sailer
  194. Mike1 says:
    @leterip

    Many would disagree for sure. You are wrong about being able to shut the borders though. This was obvious in January and we could have done just that. Letting huge numbers of diseased people into the US was very much a choice.

    An economy functioning at 80% like NZ is heading for beats what the US is doing at something like 50%. I have significant business entities that I need which perform back-end functions in the US economy that have simply disappeared! All my businesses are either literally or functionally closed. We perform one service which logically should have huge demand right now and the phone barely rings.

  195. Anonymous[836] • Disclaimer says:
    @J1234

    It would be interesting to ponder how different things would’ve turned out in the US had there been a lot less losers.

    What if the United States simply had a higher proportion of conscientious people?

  196. @Johann Ricke

    Australia’s current levels of flu are extremely low compared to previous Mays.

    • Replies: @res
  197. Anonymous[836] • Disclaimer says:
    @Travis

    We need more people to get infected to get closer to herd immunity, before the winter when the second wave starts.

    Why would a second wave start in the winter?

    • Replies: @res
    , @Travis
  198. @Achmed E. Newman

    You didn’t write the non-blockquoted part, I did. I was demonstrating the difference between paranoia and other forms of thought. Here:

    You

    No, James, WE don’t need to search for any balance. What you need to do is quit worrying about what WE should be made to do, and take care of yourself. If you are gonna drive yourselves into paranoia worrying about all transmission mechanisms, etc, then, by all means, knock yourselves out.

    Me
    Paranoia is the belief somebody is out to get you. It’s not paranoia when I use a paper toilet seat cover in a public restroom, nor when I use a paper towel to open and inward opening door, or push it open with my foot if it opens outward.

  199. @Anonymous

    What is “exhausting restlessness”?

    Sorry, that should read “exhaustion, restlessness..”

  200. @Je Suis Omar Mateen

    Just wait until your credit card debt goes into 27% APR mode and get back with us on your personal surplus dollar situation.

  201. res says:
    @Steve Sailer

    Australia’s current levels of flu are extremely low compared to previous Mays.

    That makes sense given the COVID-19 countermeasures. I think the way to think about this is to consider the raw R0s for COVID-19 (say 2.5) and the flu (say 1.3). Then realize that the countermeasures are intended to reduce the COVID-19 R0.

    If the countermeasures are to be at all effective for COVID-19 (changing R0 to near or below 1) then it seems clear the flu should be driven into extinction (which is what we also see with the US CDC flu data).

    To add some more perspective, the paper we were discussing elsewhere:
    Projecting the transmission dynamics of SARS-CoV-2 through the postpandemic period
    https://science.sciencemag.org/content/early/2020/05/11/science.abb5793
    Had a seasonal model which assumed a COVID-19 wintertime R0 = 2.2 and summertime R0 = 1.3 (a 40% decline).

    If we assume the flu has a similar seasonal decline in R0 it is easy to see why it would go away in the summer.

  202. res says:
    @Anonymous

    Why would a second wave start in the winter?

    If COVID-19 has a similar seasonality to the flu. This paper gives scenarios both with and without seasonality.
    Projecting the transmission dynamics of SARS-CoV-2 through the postpandemic period
    https://science.sciencemag.org/content/early/2020/05/11/science.abb5793

  203. @PiltdownMan

    Nice little article, I guess, PD. I don’t know what he really means by this one:

    What’s more, airplanes are essentially designed to isolate airflow.

    Air comes in from the outside, is heated via heat exchanger by compressor bleed air, then at the adjusted temperature, it comes out the gaspers and from floor vents. It flows to the back of the plane in general, where it goes out the outflow valves, which are controlled to maintain a cabin altitude (per a schedule set in a computer). “Isolating airflow”?

    I think people don’t have much to complain about since the smoking sections were terminated back in the mid/late 1980s. If, as a non-smoker, you sat on the last row of the non-smoking section, you were gonna get some smoke anyway, even though it made sense to have the smoking section in the back. The back of the cabin was often just one big smoke cloud!

  204. WTH is all of this colorful facebook, twitter crap? This is weird. Anyone else see this stuff?

    • Replies: @anon
  205. Anonymous[214] • Disclaimer says:
    @Muggles

    Amazing.

    First, all your assumptions are incorrect. Not that it matters; were they all true that would be more my business than yours. Re: heart attacks. In my experience, the real danger for recluses is that they get old and senile, stop caring for themselves, and die or are robbed, beaten, and then die. This is a real problem for law enforcement. Or they get taken up by county charity medical facilities, drugged out of their minds, and used as cash cows until they die. I’ve seen both. I’d take a heart attack over either, myself.

    Second: Why the strong reaction to not being a victim (as you apparently have no objection to being)? Is there some virtue I’m missing to being vulnerable to a sudden attack? Is it the idea that there _could_ be a sudden unexpected attack (which would succeed) that’s the problem? Being like goldfish in an aquarium made from a blender got you down? Or maybe you’re the attacker and want your subjects to be oblivious until the ultimate moment? Or something else?

  206. anon[400] • Disclaimer says:
    @Achmed E. Newman

    What are you talking about? Could you post a screen shot?

    • Replies: @Achmed E. Newman
  207. Erik L says:
    @Travis

    I mostly agree. There are some government measures I can support while the pandemic is active such as work from home if possible and canceling events that are likely to cause a lot of spread like national conferences.

    BTW now that people are doubling down on their fear, it seems to have gone almost unnoticed that we have pushed Rt (effective R at time t) below, and in many cases well below the number 1.0. I first checked California. My reasoning is that if the average serial time between infections is five days and the doubling time of new cases is greater than five days, then Rt is probably below 1. In California we have been below 1 for more than a month. This makes it especially disturbing that the mayor of LA is reluctant to relax any restriction unless we are all good little boys and girls.

    Then I found this project site. I haven’t checked their work yet but the California number at least makes sense based on the official doubling times.

    https://rt.live

    It’s fun to look at the curves and try to guess when each state began reopening (i.e. sealing their doom)

  208. @anon

    Good, it’s gone. There was a whole line of FB, twitter and 6 or so other icons on bottom and top of EACH comment. It looks like it got rolled back, thankfully. Yeah, I didn’t think of taking a screen shot, and editing to post via this tablet is kind of a pain.

    No worries – it seems to be gone.

  209. There’s been zero deaths in Wakanda.

  210. @res

    The RKI letter to the NEJM (as amended perhaps) from January 30 (Transmission of 2019-nCoV Infection from an Asymptomatic Contact in Germany). N = 4, so it never anything to hang the ‘asymp transmission’ hat on.

    It strikes me that there’s an active attempt to downplay the extent of asymp cases (and of asymp transmission) because acknowledging high levels of both would be a kick in the taint of the primary “OBEY US” narrative. (It would also lay bare the rank, government-level stupidity of temperature-testing people at checkpoints).

    It is disingenuous in the extreme for people to insist that ‘asymptomatic‘ means “No symptoms whatsoever, ever – no, seriously, not even a tickle in the throat or a loogie – and this guy takes his temperature every day and never has more than 1 glass of wine so would notice a morning headache, like, immediately“.

    ‘Asymptomatic’ means ‘no relevant symptoms of clinical significance that the patient can recall‘.

    Otherwise every person with elevated blood pressure is a priori ‘symptomatic’ because elevated blood pressure is symptom of a bunch of things.

    If someone had a bout of Delhi Belly (or Montezuma’s Revenge) explicable by having reheated Indian (Mexican) and then they tested positive for SARS-nCoV-2, are they ‘symptomatic‘ if they have no respiratory symptoms and barely-elevated temperature, but are shitting through the eye of a needle? Well, they have a symptom of mild food poisoning maybe… but no symptoms of covid19.

    Anyhow… allowing some sensible wiggle room for ‘asymptomatic’ that might include “felt a bit bleh yesterday; hawked a monster loogie after a run, but thought nothing of it“, there’s mounting evidence.

    More recently in NEJM (August 24th):

    Gandhi et al Asymptomatic Transmission, the Achilles’ Heel of Current Strategies to Control Covid-19

    and

    Arons et al Presymptomatic SARS-CoV-2 Infections and Transmission in a Skilled Nursing Facility (27 of 48 positive tests were asymp at the time of testing; 24 of the 27 developed symptoms over the next 4 days; 3 stayed asymp).

    There was also a Research Letter in JAMA from April 27…

    Bagget et al Prevalence of SARS-CoV-2 Infection in Residents of a Large Homeless Shelter in Boston … ~400 tested (average age 51); 37% tested positive; 88% of positive tests were asymptomatic.

    And the fact that peak infectiousness is at least 2 days before the onset of symptoms, and that viral loads do not determine who gets to be asymp/paucisymp/oligosymp/symp (Wang et al Temporal dynamics in viral shedding and transmissibility of COVID-19, Nature, 15 Apr)… these are not narrative-friendly because they tell the public that it’s a waste of time to inspect passersby for ‘ILI’ (influenza-like illness) symptoms.

    • Replies: @Erik L
    , @res
    , @Anonymous
  211. Sam Patch says:
    @Anonymous

    I’m not even sure how to reply to this. Of course I don’t want your high risk friends and relations to die. I don’t want mine to, either. My parents are in their 70’s with underlying health issues. The vast majority of Americans are simply not at risk, including older Americans living outside of nursing homes. And no, I don’t think you’re making anything up. I do, however, thank you’re getting swept up by emotion over fact.

  212. Travis says:
    @Anonymous

    The higher summer temperatures kill the virus, as does the more intense sunlight and longer days of summer. In addition the air is more dry in winter, and the lack of moisture can irritate or inflame the membranes of the throat, lungs and nose which make it easier for viruses to infect us. We also have lower levels of Vitamin D in the winter. These are the same reasons more people catch the flu in the winter months. We also spend more time inside in the winter, less time at the beach or hiking. So we are in closer proximity to people in the cold winter months when we are most vulnerable to getting infected due to our weaker immune system.

    If I could wager on it, I would certainly lay odds that we do not see any big outbreaks this summer. But we may see a resurgence in the winter, especially if the lockdown keeps the young and healthy cooped up for another month. We need more young and healthy people getting immunity to help reduce the deaths we will have in the coming winter. It would be better for 30% of the young people get infected now, while the elderly are still afraid to go outside.

    • Agree: res
  213. @PiltdownMan

    Typical airliner is pressurized to an 8000′ equivalent with 12% humidity to keep the aluminum fuselage from rusting and cracking. The newish 787 has a carbon fiber fuselage that is supposed to allow 6000′ pressure and 35% humidity. The latter sounds potentially healthier.

    • Replies: @PiltdownMan
    , @Joe Stalin
  214. @Steve Sailer

    @ Steve,
    agree with your argument, it is definitely worth thinking about.

    maybe of interest:
    In Austria they have traced more than 4k cases (out of 16k) so far and aranged them in clusters, with the following results (unfortunately in German):
    https://www.ages.at/service/service-presse/pressemeldungen/epidemiologische-abklaerung-am-beispiel-covid-19/

    These are the typical clusters you would expect (gyms, nursing homes, apres-ski, etc., workplace and home)…
    They further state that in each of these cases a minimum contact period of 15 minutes was necessary, similar to findings in Germany where they traced the first cluster (auto supplier Webasto) in full detail, going back to Shanghai…
    apparently occasional contacts (less than 15min) – even idoors- within a cluster did not lead to infection, as strange as this sounds

    They, for example still did not find large clusters in supermarkets, i.e. an infected employee infecting a lot of clients – this should be easy to trace I figure (supermarkets in Austria are smaller than in the US, on average). supermarkets should theoretically be worse than passing someone on fifth avenue…

    another point:
    Austria has been quite successful in getting the numbers down, although our lock-down has been quite soft, compared to Italy and Spain where people were litteraly locked at home. I do not know anybody here who did not go out for a walk or went jogging on a daily basis, just no indoor activities and visits – and R0 has been between 0.5 and 0.8 all this time…

    However, I do think that we could do a better job of explaining people which activities to avoid. for instance, from what I understand, I think it has to be stated that keeping distance is NOT enough in an indoor setting (without masks?)… which is bad news for restaurants and office work…

    • Replies: @Steve Sailer
    , @res
  215. @Steve Sailer

    I wonder what happens on flights to La Paz, Bolivia. Its airport is at over 13,000 feet.

    Perhaps pilots keep cabin pressure at a 13,000 ft equivalent during the flight so that passengers are somewhat acclimatized before they land.

    I once drove, on a trip to Colorado, to the top of Mt. Evans (14,270 ft) from Denver, without stopping. Within a couple of minutes of parking, I was a bit light-headed. I had to wait a couple of hours, until closing time, before I felt well enough to drive down.

  216. Erik L says:
    @Kratoklastes

    I don’t think you are at peak infectiousness 2 days before. The reason more infections may occur at that time is you will have more contacts outside your family then vs after and your immediate family, if they get infected by you two days before, cannot then count as having been effected on day 0 of symptoms or later. Your ability to infect any given person you come in contact with peaks a little later.

  217. res says:
    @Kratoklastes

    Thanks for the letter link and additional references.

    It is disingenuous in the extreme for people to insist that ‘asymptomatic‘ means “No symptoms whatsoever, ever – no, seriously, not even a tickle in the throat or a loogie – and this guy takes his temperature every day and never has more than 1 glass of wine so would notice a morning headache, like, immediately“.

    ‘Asymptomatic’ means ‘no relevant symptoms of clinical significance that the patient can recall‘.

    Otherwise every person with elevated blood pressure is a priori ‘symptomatic’ because elevated blood pressure is symptom of a bunch of things.

    There are many levels here and there will be gray areas. That said, your HBP example is obviously absurd.

    But I also think Peter Frost’s “must have COVID-19 specific symptoms” is absurd.

    For me the sensible definition is something like “no symptoms which would be likely with a respiratory infection.” So I would actually include a tickle in the throat. That is one of my most accurate early symptoms of becoming sick. If I am smart enough to heed it and take vitamin C/zinc lozenges and take things a bit easy I might never have any more symptoms than that. But if I fail to take the hint and do something stupid like a multiple hour exercise session (as I did in March) or let myself get overtired and/or cold then I tend to get the more obvious symptoms.

    One important thing is the definition may be individual. My nose runs routinely with extended exercise (especially in the cold) so that is useless as a symptom for me. The tickle in my throat is rare and rather predictive.

    The key question I see in all of this is how infectious are people when they are asymptomatic? I think the symptoms (e.g. cough) tend to aid transmission and also indicate a higher viral load is likely to be present. Though your final link offers a potent counterargument. I think this bit from their discussion of study limitations is worth repeating. The final sentence being the key.

    Our study has several limitations. First, symptom onset relies on patient recall after confirmation of COVID-19. The potential recall bias would probably have tended toward the direction of under-ascertainment, that is, delay in recognizing first symptoms. As long as these biases did not differ systematically between infector and infectee, the serial interval estimate would not be substantially affected. However, the incubation period would have been overestimated, and thus the proportion of presymptomatic transmission artifactually inflated.

  218. res says:
    @viennacapitalist

    Thanks for the link. It seemed to me that Google translate did a usable job on the text. One question, should some of the ordinal numbers (e.g. 3rd in Table 2) be cardinal numbers (3 there) instead?

    One thing that struck me looking at Table 2 is how variable the cluster sizes are. I wish they had calculated “average cluster size” and included that in the table.

    What I don’t understand is how “Leisure activity and household” had few clusters and many cases while “Retirement / old people’s / nursing home” had many clusters and few cases. I would have expected the opposite. Am I misunderstanding something? Or maybe that is something like the massive wedding/funeral clusters we have seen?

    P.S. Steve, I think the relative status of Leisure activity and workplace helps confirm your idea about fun things being the worst.

    • Replies: @viennacapitalist
  219. AKAHorace says:
    @moshe

    It’s super duper obvious that Steve is under an increased amount of female influence lately but I would like to know along with many other people here whether people other than Steve have been writing under his name. This whole, “be a gentleman” thing and some of his other comment responses sound like things that no one but a woman or a soyboy would write.

    Steve has always almost been polite and low key. There is nothing feminine about this, women who are aggressive are usually very verbally aggressive. Emotional commentary is more often characteristic of women and children then men.I don’t think that feminine influence would make him more polite.

    And in the case of COVID-19, it is also a good idea to be temperate in your comments, there is still a fair amount of uncertainty, we are arguing about the effects of a virus that has only be known of for about 5 months. Keep your words soft and sweet, especially when you don’t know if you will have to eat them.

  220. @res

    Yes, is cardinal,

    The nursing home cluster includes cases where nurses got infected at the workplace and then brought it back home apparently constituting a new cluster, maybe that explains the high number, also there are overlapping clusters, but I haven’t bothered to read all explainations.

    I do not find what is published that useful-seems unnecessary complicated and fancy with a lot of effort torturing the existing data rather than focusing on getting the right data. The main takeaway for me from their analysis is the 15 minute thing and the absence of large clusters in Supermarket. They also found that 60 percent of cases/clusters originated in the now infamous Ski resort in Tyrol where 14k tourists were allowed to leave uncontrolled in mid march, the week the lockdown started (!), and spread all over Europe!!!
    Large weddings typically do not take place in Winter in Austria and have been basically prohibited since mid March-so that’s not that surprising

    I personally feel that Austria manages the exit badly, i.e. there are no people in place asking the right questions (as Steve points out) and the data is not published in full – you know, data protection, a.s.o. So we do not determine and measure the right KPIs. Instead we wasted our time discussing whether to open schools or not…
    For instance it would be useful to know wheter the percentage of hospitalizations per age cohort has been declining (as per the Vitiamin D theory) over time – we have had nice weather for 2 months..
    The incompetence is stunnig, but in most other Western countries is even worse…

    • Thanks: res
  221. Anonymous[118] • Disclaimer says:
    @Kratoklastes

    And the fact that peak infectiousness is at least 2 days before the onset of symptoms,

    No, that isn’t a “fact.”

  222. @moshe

    Jewish fragility is real

  223. @Steve Sailer

    “keep the aluminum fuselage from rusting and cracking.”

    “Cracking”… that was really bad for the UK aircraft industry in the 1950s…

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