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What's Safer at Reducing Murders: Having Richer Neighbors or Fewer Black Neighbors?

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From the Journal of the American Medical Association:

Neighborhood Racial Composition and Gun Homicides

November 30, 2020
Chaeyoung Cheon; Yuzhou Lin; David J. Harding, PhD; Wei Wang, PhD; Dylan S. Small, PhD

Substantial racial disparities exist for gun homicide deaths in the US: the 2003 to 2017 age-adjusted rate was 7.4 times higher for Black individuals than for White individuals.

That is that blacks were 7.4 times as likely to be murder victims as whites, from CDC data. (Note that CDC victimization data does a pretty good job of breaking out whites from Hispanics, unlike FBI offending data.) The ratio of black murder offending rates goes unsaid.

Walker et al found an even greater disparity in Chicago and suggested that because race may be a surrogate for income, public health interventions should aim to alleviate poverty in order to reduce gun violence. However, in Philadelphia, Black individuals of the same income level as White individuals were at higher risk of being shot, suggesting that public policies to reduce gun violence and racial disparities might need to go beyond alleviating poverty. In this cross-sectional study, we examine disparities in gun homicide rates among neighborhoods of different racial composition for fixed levels of socioeconomic status….

We obtained from the Gun Violence Archive information on gun homicide deaths by US Census tract from 2014 to 2018. To measure US Census tract racial composition and socioeconomic status, we used data from the American Community Survey’s 2014 to 2018 US Census tract profiles and computed the deprivation index, which is a 0 to 1 scale based on poverty rate; median household income; residents older than 24 years without a high school degree; residents without health insurance; residents receiving public assistance income, food stamps, or the Supplemental Nutrition Assistance Program; and vacant housing units.

The higher the percentile ranking of a neighborhood on the deprivation index, the worse it is.

Discussion

For a fixed socioeconomic status of a US Census tract—high, medium or low—US Census tracts with a higher proportion of Black residents have higher gun homicide rates. The US remains highly residentially segregated by race despite improvements since the 1960s. Besides residential segregation reducing Black individuals’ socioeconomic status by such mechanisms as inhibiting wealth accumulation through housing value and limiting access to high-quality schools, our findings suggest that even among neighborhoods of the same socioeconomic status, residential segregation may put Black individuals at higher risk of gun homicide. Potential explanations include the following being more prevalent in higher proportion Black neighborhoods: lack of institutional resources and opportunities caused by racial wealth gaps and underinvestment, the legacy of punitive law enforcement leading to difficulties controlling crime, lower collective efficacy due to lack of political power or city responsiveness, geographic proximity to poor neighborhoods, and gang networks or interconnections.

Also, one other possible reason why blacker neighborhoods of tend to have higher murder rates than nonblacker neighborhoods of the same average deprivation level is that black neighborhoods have more blacks:

Further studies should be conducted to investigate these explanations and design policies to reduce gun homicides. Limitations of this study include the inability to pinpoint the demographic characteristics of the people affected by gun homicides.

I’ve adapted their table slightly to make it easier to work with, changing homicides from per 1000 to per 100,000 as used in most other statistics. (E.g., Baltimore, which is 5/8ths black had a homicide rate per 100,000 in 2020 of 54.5 and Chicago, which is 30% black had a murder rate of 28.4.)

In this table, the rows represent neighborhoods of worsening deprivation percentiles as you go down. E.g., the top column represent neighborhoods at only the 10th percentile on the deprivation index (i.e., 90th percentile on the niceness index). Meanwhile, the columns moving from left to right indicate increase percentages of black residents.

The lowest murder rate is seen, not surprisingly, in the top left corner, which represents neighborhoods at only the 10th percentile of deprivation (90th percentile of privilege) and only 1% black residents. According the researchers big multiple regression model, these neighborhoods can be expected to see 1.0 homicide per year.

That 1.0 figure is lucky coincidence, since you can therefore read both both the homicide rate and the ratio to the least homicidal neighborhood from the same numbers. E.g., in worst neighborhoods in the lower right corner that are at the 99th percentile of deprivation and are 90% black, the homicide rate is 51.1 per 100k, and also the homicide rate there 51.1 times that of the best neighborhoods in the upper left corner:

Table: Mean Incidence Rate of Gun Homicide Deaths per 100,000 People per Year over 5-Year Period.
From 2014 to 2018 by a US Census Tracts Deprivation Index Level and Percentage Black Residents

Point estimate

Percentile, deprivation index level (higher is worse) 1% black residents 13% black residents 50% black residents 90% black residents Ratio: 90% Black / 1% Black
10th, 0.20 1.0 1.6 2.9 4.8 4.8
33rd, 0.28 1.7 2.5 4.7 7.7 4.5
50th, 0.34 2.2 3.3 6.3 10.9 5.0
67th, 0.40 2.9 4.1 8.7 16.8 5.8
99th 0.72 5.9 11.8 25.5 51.1 8.7
Ratio: 99th deprivation/10th deprivation 5.9 7.4 8.8 10.6
The italicized figures are the ratios of the worst neighborhood in each row or column to the best neighborhood. For example, in neighborhoods at the 50th percentile (or the median) of deprivation, murders are 5.0 times as common in the ones that are 90% blacks as in ones that 1% black. Similarly, in neighborhoods that are 50% black, murders are 8.8 times as common in ones that are at the 99th percentile of deprivation as in ones that are at only the 10th percentile.

What it looks like is that at most deprivations levels, 90% black neighborhoods are about 5 times as homicidal as 99% nonblack neighborhoods, except at the very bottom of the social scale, where they upwards to 8.7 times as lethal.

Of course, a big limitation in this data is the Gun Violence Archive doesn’t break out victims, much less shooters, by race. So what we’d like to know is what is what percentage of the murderers in each type of neighborhood are black.

And also we’d like to know what the average black deprivation level is within each neighborhood. And what the deprivation level of each black shooter was.

Raj Chetty’s theory appears to be that if you can get ghetto moms to move to a nice suburb before their sons are headed for the street gang thug life track, the sons will do a lot better. But it’s hard to evaluate this using this data.

 
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  1. Solutions

    1. Ban guns so that the tools of the trade are more difficult to obtain

    2. Educate young people on real history and white supremacy and perfidy so that there is an understanding of what caused the disparities

    3. Encourage white girls to engage in romantic conduct with Men of Colour exclusively so as to discourage potential production of racists

    4. Ban white males from the military police force so that Men of Colour are the dispensers of justice thereby giving them a stake in society

    5. Ban white flight through taxes

    6. Allow more immigration so that the white population is lessened thereby milking racism more effectively

    • Replies: @No Recent Commenting History
    @Tyrone Goldberg

    http://dev.fluffyduck.com.au/gun-duck.png

    Replies: @Achmed E. Newman, @Joe Stalin

    , @MEH 0910
    @Tyrone Goldberg


    thereby milking racism more effectively
     
    https://media3.giphy.com/media/3l9XhgJ8kXVqE/source.gif
    , @Polistra
    @Tyrone Goldberg

    7. Permit race trolls free rein throughout the entire ecology of unz.com. (Done!)

    8. Establish an arena for fight-to-the-death grudge matches between TD and Alden.

    9. Tie your own shoelaces, homey.

    10. Come on everyone! Join in!

    ------------------------------------------

    PS: Ban guns. LOL. Yeah, also instruct negroes to stop breaking the law! Fair's fair, right?

    Replies: @Gary in Gramercy

    , @Hernan Pizzaro del Blanco
    @Tyrone Goldberg

    This is the actual solution being implemented today. One of the reasons the Black population has doubled since 1970 is from miscegenation. Over the last 50 years the Black population has grown from 22 million to 45 million today. During this time the white population has stagnated. The White population barely grew from 1970 and has been declining over the last decade.

    One reason the white population will continue to shrink is miscegenation. While it takes two white people to have a white child, it only takes one Black parent to make a Black baby. Over the last decade 10% of the babies born to white mothers are not considered white, thus white fertility is much lower than the reported figure of 1.7 and is actually around 1.5 children white children per white female. White fertility would need to reach 2.5 to stabilize the white population if 10% of white females mate with non-white fathers. But based on current trends whites are increasing their mating with non-whites each year. This is a big reason Whites will be a minority in the US by by 2040. We are just starting to see the results of whites as a minority, soon whites will be a minority of those in law enforcement across America as well as a minority of those in the military and government.

    Replies: @anonymousperson

  2. An additional variable I’ve wondered about with respect to crime rates is population density. All else being equal, does having more people per square mile result in more murders per 100,000? I can see possible effects in both directions. Higher density means more potentially violent interactions, but also increases the likelihood of witnesses or cops being around, which could be a deterrent.

    • Replies: @Polistra
    @Darwin's Sh-tlist


    Higher density means more potentially violent interactions, but also increases the likelihood of witnesses or cops being around, which could be a deterrent.
     
    Just look at rats. The more you cram into the cages, the more they act like, well, you know.

    And thinking ahead, worrying about witnesses or cops? You are so white, dude.

    Replies: @AceDeuce

    , @Feryl
    @Darwin's Sh-tlist

    But tolerance of population density seems to be race related, e.g. North Asians and Europeans can better avoid shooting each other over minor beefs than blacks can. There's little doubt that transplanting blacks from smaller Southern towns and mid-sized/not so dense Southern cities to the ever de-industrializing urban North was a horrible idea that's resulted in both overpopulation of blacks and many ill-fated beefs.

    WRT mental illness, teeming numbers of white and black homeless nutjobs will wreck any cities perceived (and actual) quality of life. Whites these days tend to not be thuggish criminals, but "we" are far too numerous in the drug user and crazy column.

    , @Hibernian
    @Darwin's Sh-tlist


    ...increases the likelihood of witnesses...
     
    Snitches get stitches, if not tombstones.

    Replies: @Hibernian

    , @Brutusale
    @Darwin's Sh-tlist

    Controlling for population density only makes blacks look worse.

    Hong Kong (no black population) has a population density of 17.3K/square mile with a murder rate of .65/100K.

    Somerville, MA (7% black) is the densest part of the Commonwealth at 7.1K/square mile. There were no murders there last year.

    Boise (1.5% black) has a population density of 2.6K/square mile and a murder rate of .44/100K.

    Baltimore (62% black) has a population density of 7.6K/square mile with a murder rate of 51.4/100K.

    Little Rock (42% black) has a population density of 1.6K/square mile with a murder rate of 19/100K.

    So, to riff on another commenter's trope, the black rats handle density much more violently than the white and yellow rats!

    Replies: @The Last Real Calvinist

  3. Tyrone Duckberg…..

  4. Potential explanations include the following being more prevalent in higher proportion Black neighborhoods: lack of institutional resources and opportunities caused by racial wealth gaps and underinvestment, the legacy of punitive law enforcement leading to difficulties controlling crime, lower collective efficacy due to lack of political power or city responsiveness, geographic proximity to poor neighborhoods, and gang networks or interconnections.

    Potential explanations exclude the following:

    Black neighborhoods have far more violent and psychopathic individuals.

    etc.

    • Agree: AndrewR
    • Replies: @Bill Jones
    @Technite78

    It's hard not to laugh when the solution seems to be to give more political power to more violent stupid people with no impulse control.

    What could go wrong?

    , @Forbes
    @Technite78

    The potential explanations, each, appear to be an inversion of cause and effect.

    1. Lack of resources, etc., are likely caused by high crime as resources flow to less violent communities.
    2. Effective law enforcement HAS led to controlling crime/violence, e.g. Giuliani/Bloomberg 20 year record of reducing crime. Violent offenders removed from neighborhoods reduces violence.
    3. Political power: Large cities have been controlled by blacks and Democrats, in some places, for half a century or more.
    4. Proximity to poor neighborhoods, gangs, networks, etc., is a tautology.

    My high school teacher would've commented: Must try harder, you misunderstood the assignment.

  5. @Tyrone Goldberg
    Solutions

    1. Ban guns so that the tools of the trade are more difficult to obtain

    2. Educate young people on real history and white supremacy and perfidy so that there is an understanding of what caused the disparities

    3. Encourage white girls to engage in romantic conduct with Men of Colour exclusively so as to discourage potential production of racists

    4. Ban white males from the military police force so that Men of Colour are the dispensers of justice thereby giving them a stake in society

    5. Ban white flight through taxes

    6. Allow more immigration so that the white population is lessened thereby milking racism more effectively

    Replies: @No Recent Commenting History, @MEH 0910, @Polistra, @Hernan Pizzaro del Blanco

    • Replies: @Achmed E. Newman
    @No Recent Commenting History

    Indeed, Tiny Duck better up his game.

    Tiny Duck wields a knife, and Tyrone Goldberg points a Glock, sideways. Well, it's about even...

    Replies: @MEH 0910

    , @Joe Stalin
    @No Recent Commenting History

    That brings back high school memories. The Commando Arms .45ACP was the first rifle I ever shot, and it was indoors in Chicago. No one called the cops: it's Southside Chicago and completely normal!

    The NYC coppers captured one from David Berkowitz's (Son of Sam) automobile I recall.

    I'm surprised the manufacturers never brought the gun back in today's market. The weapon as shown above has a metal cast lower receiver. Later, the gun had a plastic receiver and plastic furniture, and was present at the Design Engineering show in Chicago decades ago as an exemplar of the plastic used in the furniture. I forget the name of the plastic, but it's the same stuff Maglite uses in which they purchase in 8,000 lb lot continuing orders.

  6. Does Chetty actually believe what he says?

    More dire question, how many terrible ideas have been institutionalized by the largesse created by the near monopoly of the Google search algorithm?

    • Replies: @Colin Wright
    @clifford brown

    'Does Chetty actually believe what he says?'

    I'd be very surprised if he did.

    Replies: @Achmed E. Newman, @anonymousperson

    , @BenKenobi
    @clifford brown

    Ils s’ont Charlie.

  7. We lived in a black-majority neighborhood in the city. There was very little crime, almost none of it violent. This is probably because they were African immigrants, most refugees. The threat of deportation is a strong deterrent unavailable for use with native blacks.

    Also, self-selection is involved, and, as with “Asians” in Hawaii, the race may be in the majority, but no one group within it is.

    In most cases both parents were employed. The main threat to safety was unsupervised teens playing rough games of soccer.

    • LOL: RichardTaylor
    • Replies: @AKAHorace
    @Reg Cæsar


    We lived in a black-majority neighborhood in the city. There was very little crime, almost none of it violent. This is probably because they were African immigrants, most refugees. The threat of deportation is a strong deterrent unavailable for use with native black
     
    I have heard African immigrants say that they have problems with Black Americans. I am not sure though if with time Africans will assimilate to the US black majority.

    Replies: @Reg Cæsar

  8. Raj Chetty’s theory appears to be that if you can get ghetto moms to move to a nice suburb before their sons are headed for the street gang thug life track, the sons will do a lot better.

    Fairly good thesis. Also beneficial for the daughters, since they may have a better chance of graduating w/o pregnancy or criminal record. And meet better men.

    Since absence of male role models is a major factor in the feral male population, particularly in the black community (a big chunk of older black males are either dead or imprisoned), I have been thinking about the idea of school “male wardens” for homerooms.

    Other than coaches, who do the heavy lifting in the black community, these wardens could be teachers assistants for the discipline, certain paper shuffling tasks (or inputting), and work to keep order and provide a watchful eye. This would be a great job for 40+ males who otherwise won’t or can’t work too hard doing something else. Yes, strict standards for hiring, etc. But considering how much public education bureaucracies spend on failed programs, this might work.

    If you grow up where most people work and have good values, you will grow up better. The opposite is also true.

    • LOL: 3g4me, Polistra
    • Replies: @ic1000
    @Muggles

    “Wardens” would be an excellent idea, if aspects of blacks’ behavior contributed to their problems. In the Current Year, with kulaks running amok everywhere, we know better.

    , @Travis
    @Muggles

    we do not have enough white areas left to accommodate the number of Black families who may benefit from relocating to the white towns....Most of the areas where this may have worked will quickly see many white families leaving the when the Black population in the schools exceeds 10% and then the property taxes escalate just as the home values begin to fall.

    my hometown is a good example of this. 25 years ago Blacks were 2% of the High School population. Once Blacks reached 10% of the student population the white families started moving out and property values began falling. The Black student population grew from 2% to 12% from 1990-2000, then quickly grew to 50% in the next 9 years and is now just 25% white as most white parents send their kids to one of the Catholic High Schools to avoid the public schools.

    The same fate would come to any town if Blacks started moving in. So the benefits Blacks may obtain from living in white towns would not last more than a few years, as the whites would quickly move away, as they have done in time after time when Blacks start moving in.

    so even if Blacks would benefit from living in a white town, the towns will quickly turn and there are fewer and fewer white towns left for them to target. The few white towns remaining have very expensive real estate, so most Blacks are kept out.

  9. Another confounding factor is that the non-black portion is unlikely to be the same composition. I expect, for example, that the 1 percent black/99 deprived area is mostly Hispanic (like Brownsville, Tx) or mostly Native, like a reservation. But the 90 black/10th deprivation is likely white/Asian in its other population, and I don’t know where that would be.

  10. Also, one other possible reason why blacker neighborhoods of tend to have higher murder rates than nonblacker neighborhoods of the same average deprivation level is that black neighborhoods have more blacks:

    I feel like a Catskills comedian in the 70s got away with this joke. Everybody loves racist jokes anyway, especially the victims. At least the ones who aren’t mental cases.

    Anyway, as a Mischling let me tell this one.

    3 Jews are walking down the street and they see a sign in front of a church, ‘$1000 for all converts.’ the first one says, I’m going to get some of this action. He goes in, and a short time later emerges. His friends say, “Well, did you get the money?’ The first guy says “Is that all you people think about?’

    • Replies: @Dissident
    @Ghost of Bull Moose


    “Is that all you people think about?’
     
    A classic. I recall the same joke being told by Jack D but with the differences (a) that there were only two Jews*, and (b) punchline was nearly identical to yours but preceded with "Money?!"

    Were you, by any chance, raised Catholic? If yes, were you taught to always bring a lawyer with you when you went to confession?

    *But , of course, at least three opinions...

    Replies: @Gary in Gramercy

    , @Donald A Thomson
    @Ghost of Bull Moose

    Why do you think you were responding to a racial joke? The simple and obvious deduction isn't always wrong and should, at least, be considered.

    Australia lets in immigrants from everywhere but we cheat. The most important criteria for admission includes training in a field that ensures employment where candidates are in short supply. That usually means tertiary education. We don't accept George Floyds.

    Usually, there are about a quarter of Australians who were born in other countries. Nobody cares how many children they've had because Indians, Chinese, Lebanese, Vietnamese etc born in Australia are so Australian.

    That was the case before we started wasting money encouraging multi-culturism and continues just the same. Of course there are people who look down on this one or that one but who cares? It's no worse among one group than another and apathy rules ok.

    Our migrants' skin is just as thick as ours. They don't cry when somebody doesn't like them and that's a good thing. Their children do better than ours ever did at school and that's to be expected when you have a selective immigration policy except for refugees who are a negligible minority of our immigrants. I think it's only 10 or 15 thousand a year.
    [email protected]

    , @SafeNow
    @Ghost of Bull Moose

    Jewish fellow is slightly hit by a car, collapses to the ground. A good samaritan calls an ambulance, then uses a sweatshirt to make a pillow. “It’s not much of a pillow, sir. Are you comfortable?” Reply: “I make a living.”

  11. Here in my county in rural Oregon — poor and heavily armed but only 0.3 % black — we just broke our streak. After three years, there was an actual murder.

    This with a population of a hundred thousand — but so few blacks.

    Go figure.

    • Replies: @Bobby Jones
    @Colin Wright

    So your murder rate per 100k per year is almost exactly your black percentage of the population of the county. Interesting. I wonder what the regression line would look like for that using every American county.

    Replies: @Colin Wright

    , @stillCARealist
    @Colin Wright

    My town is the same, except in the last 2 years when we went from less than one murder per year, to 4. Oh boy! The last 2020 murder was criminals, who should have been behind bars, killing a robbery target, who was looking for a prostitute, who was on drugs. All were caught, so here's hoping that they lock these people up for decades.

    Population: 135k

    , @Bill Jones
    @Colin Wright

    Why use percentages?

    One murder a year for every hundred blacks.

    Easier to use when Barry the Kenyan's Section 8 imports arrive in your White town.

    Replies: @Colin Wright

    , @(((Owen)))
    @Colin Wright

    I spent two weeks in Curry County in May, carefully wearing my mask everywhere I went. None of the locals were wearing any. Seemed irresponsible

    I don’t think they had any cases until July, though. Until the snow melts, there’s almost no roads open into the area.

  12. I’m going with “B”.

    Now, I’ll read your post to see whether I was right.

  13. @clifford brown
    Does Chetty actually believe what he says?

    More dire question, how many terrible ideas have been institutionalized by the largesse created by the near monopoly of the Google search algorithm?

    https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=X2YzxpWKKz4

    Replies: @Colin Wright, @BenKenobi

    ‘Does Chetty actually believe what he says?’

    I’d be very surprised if he did.

    • Replies: @Achmed E. Newman
    @Colin Wright

    Colin, I lean toward: he believes what he says because he WANTS to believe what he says. You can be pretty intelligent and still fool yourself. It's a wash, in fact.

    Replies: @Colin Wright

    , @anonymousperson
    @Colin Wright

    I would be even more surprised if he actually lived in a black neighborhood.

    Replies: @Colin Wright

  14. @Tyrone Goldberg
    Solutions

    1. Ban guns so that the tools of the trade are more difficult to obtain

    2. Educate young people on real history and white supremacy and perfidy so that there is an understanding of what caused the disparities

    3. Encourage white girls to engage in romantic conduct with Men of Colour exclusively so as to discourage potential production of racists

    4. Ban white males from the military police force so that Men of Colour are the dispensers of justice thereby giving them a stake in society

    5. Ban white flight through taxes

    6. Allow more immigration so that the white population is lessened thereby milking racism more effectively

    Replies: @No Recent Commenting History, @MEH 0910, @Polistra, @Hernan Pizzaro del Blanco

    thereby milking racism more effectively

    • LOL: Polistra
  15. @Colin Wright
    @clifford brown

    'Does Chetty actually believe what he says?'

    I'd be very surprised if he did.

    Replies: @Achmed E. Newman, @anonymousperson

    Colin, I lean toward: he believes what he says because he WANTS to believe what he says. You can be pretty intelligent and still fool yourself. It’s a wash, in fact.

    • Replies: @Colin Wright
    @Achmed E. Newman

    'Colin, I lean toward: he believes what he says because he WANTS to believe what he says. You can be pretty intelligent and still fool yourself. It’s a wash, in fact.'

    I really suspect that for Indians such as Chetty, belief doesn't enter into it; it's just an intellectual game.

  16. TG says:

    Yes, many interesting points. But try this:

    In Acapulco. Mexico, where most people are ‘white’ (now hispanic), the murder rate is about 107 per 100,000 per year.

    In mostly black Baltimore Maryland, USA, the murder rate is about 55.5 per 100,000 per year.

    https://www.statista.com/statistics/243797/ranking-of-the-most-dangerous-cities-in-the-world-by-murder-rate-per-capita/

    Yeah sure, statistically, blacks do seem to correlate with crime. But there’s more to it than that, isn’t there?

    • Replies: @Polistra
    @TG


    Yeah sure, statistically, blacks do seem to correlate with crime. But there’s more to it than that, isn’t there?
     
    Uh, yeah. Latinos correlate with crime too. Your point?
    , @anonymousperson
    @TG

    "White" means very different things in different countries. What passes for "white" in one country would be laughed at as such in another. Thus I would be very cautious in making such comparisons as it is unlikely they are true apples to apples measurements.

    Replies: @Forbes

    , @Bardon Kaldian
    @TG

    Hispanics, even white (or "white"), are prone to high crime rate everywhere:

    Buenos Aires, mostly white: https://www.numbeo.com/crime/in/Buenos-Aires

    On the other hand, Moscow: https://www.numbeo.com/crime/in/Moscow

    , @International Jew
    @TG

    Acapulco is basically a war zone for narcotraficantes.

    , @Paul Mendez
    @TG


    In Acapulco. Mexico, where most people are ‘white’ (now hispanic), the murder rate is about 107 per 100,000 per year
     
    .

    Indios from Central America seem to be exceptionally bloodthirsty. The Aztecs practiced mass murder on an industrial scale. While black gang-bangers shoot at each other a lot, they are less likely to knife/hack/dismember/decapitate their victims. Or annihilate the victim’s family as well.

    Black violence seems to be mainly the result of poor impulse control. Indio violence seems to be something darker
    , @Vicente Guerrero
    @TG

    Acapulco is an Afro-Mexican state named after an afro-Mexican.

    Those are neither mestizos, whites, or Indios.

    https://www.blackhistory.com/2020/01/mexico-black-president-vicente-guerrero.html?m=1

  17. @Tyrone Goldberg
    Solutions

    1. Ban guns so that the tools of the trade are more difficult to obtain

    2. Educate young people on real history and white supremacy and perfidy so that there is an understanding of what caused the disparities

    3. Encourage white girls to engage in romantic conduct with Men of Colour exclusively so as to discourage potential production of racists

    4. Ban white males from the military police force so that Men of Colour are the dispensers of justice thereby giving them a stake in society

    5. Ban white flight through taxes

    6. Allow more immigration so that the white population is lessened thereby milking racism more effectively

    Replies: @No Recent Commenting History, @MEH 0910, @Polistra, @Hernan Pizzaro del Blanco

    7. Permit race trolls free rein throughout the entire ecology of unz.com. (Done!)

    8. Establish an arena for fight-to-the-death grudge matches between TD and Alden.

    9. Tie your own shoelaces, homey.

    10. Come on everyone! Join in!

    ——————————————

    PS: Ban guns. LOL. Yeah, also instruct negroes to stop breaking the law! Fair’s fair, right?

    • Replies: @Gary in Gramercy
    @Polistra

    Tyrone Shoelaces! Whatever happened to him? Did he get shot during a game of midnight basketball?

  18. What’s Safer at Reducing Murders: Having Richer Neighbors or Fewer Black Neighbors?

    Steve, since you’re in L.A., maybe you could ask the families of Ron Goldman and Nicole Brown?

  19. .. limiting access to high-quality schools ..

    Sorry, but that problem isn’t restricted to “deprived” areas
    .
    I am so sick and tired of these tax funded, “academic” studies. Typically, they’re published in impressively titled/reviewed, academic journals whose overpriced subscriptions are paid for by .. tax funded grants and science libraries.

    The articles conclude — surprise! — more tax funded research is needed.

    A high homicide rate can be partly attributed to a lack of political power. Really.

  20. Weird–in totally out-of-control sick-woke Chicago, where black “authorities” like Kim Foxx are hard at work successfully decriminalizing violent black crime, what strikes me as a totally outrageous (and possibly racist) sentence has been handed down.

    https://cwbchicago.com/2021/03/65-years-judge-sentences-man-for-role-in-slaying-of-off-duty-cop-in-river-north.html

    • Replies: @Elli
    @JimDandy


    Battle later told police he helped Jackson because they are both members of the Gangster Disciples street gang.
     
    So Battle knew what would happen. 65 years is not excessive, as long as Jackson and Washington get more. Such a long sentence must have been because the victim was a cop, even though the killers didn't know that. If they'd shot a Hispanic drywaller, 10 to 15.

    Replies: @JimDandy

    , @vhrm
    @JimDandy

    Yeah, that's a pretty BS sentence, imo too. His involvement in the murder was pretty tangential. Reading a couple of articles here it's not clear that prosecutors even accused him of knowing that the guy who did the shooting was planning to shoot.


    Apparently though he represented himself though, and not too well at that:
    https://www.chicagotribune.com/news/criminal-justice/ct-chicago-cop-killing-trial-20190816-4wzd3tprpjbh3gas5pbwqcovg4-story.html

    still, i don't think the general "felony murder" rules around the country are just. How far out do you extrapolate a causal web? Clearly the party of 4 people who were shot at (one of whom died) had been involved in the original fight. So this scorched earth mentality should have had the three survivors charged with murder too. If they hadn't fought with the dudes at the bar, this wouldn't have happened. (in fact these kind of charges are not uncommon e.g. if 3 guys go rob a place and a security guard kills one of them, it's not uncommon to charge the other 2 w/ murder of their partner even if none of the robbers shot anyone. things like that)

    Also, what about the bar? was anyone drunk ? where were the charges from that? Why didn't they provide counselors to make sure that their patrons had worked out their negative experience at the establishment where they provided intoxicants ? Actually why is alcohol or bars even legal?
    The shooting was at 3:30am? What? why were any of these people on the streets? We've seen in the past year that curfews are perfectly legitimate apparently. How could those irresponsible government officials have allowed people to be on the streets at that time? Clearly they should have been charged w/ murder also.

    etc.

    Replies: @JimDandy

  21. @Darwin's Sh-tlist
    An additional variable I've wondered about with respect to crime rates is population density. All else being equal, does having more people per square mile result in more murders per 100,000? I can see possible effects in both directions. Higher density means more potentially violent interactions, but also increases the likelihood of witnesses or cops being around, which could be a deterrent.

    Replies: @Polistra, @Feryl, @Hibernian, @Brutusale

    Higher density means more potentially violent interactions, but also increases the likelihood of witnesses or cops being around, which could be a deterrent.

    Just look at rats. The more you cram into the cages, the more they act like, well, you know.

    And thinking ahead, worrying about witnesses or cops? You are so white, dude.

    • Replies: @AceDeuce
    @Polistra

    "Just look at rats. The more you cram into the cages, the more they act like, well, you know."

    Yeah, that's why Tokyo, Seoul, and Singapore have so much crime.....

  22. That’s a nice simple table, and that 1.0 per 100,000 for white non-deprived folks is indeed fortuitous. At first glance of the bottom row of ratios vs. the right column of ratios would lead one to think the deprivation factor is, what, about 20% higher than the black factor. However, I see that you or the census data didn’t have enough 99% black neighborhoods. Talk about depraved, oops, deprived!* Showing “90 percentile deprived” would make it fairer, but …

    … I think the “deprivation factor” has got to be open to lots of fudging anyway, with weighing factors for the welfare, bad schools, # of 24 y/o non-grads, etc. One could change the results quite easily by changing those weights or adding new areas of deprivation..

    Nice post, analysis-wise, but I also agree with Bull Moose above. That was some hard-core sarcasm – some of your best!

    Lastly, about the AMA. It really is well out of their purview for the JAMA to be publishing articles like this. It’s not about a disease, a treatment, physiology, and it’s really only “public health” because the lefties in public health and these AMA big shots are down with the idea of confiscating guns in America. Of course, only (some of) the law-abiding will comply, and the lack of compliance in black neighborhoods could be fudged-in as another area of deprivation. Hell, why not?

  23. @clifford brown
    Does Chetty actually believe what he says?

    More dire question, how many terrible ideas have been institutionalized by the largesse created by the near monopoly of the Google search algorithm?

    https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=X2YzxpWKKz4

    Replies: @Colin Wright, @BenKenobi

    Ils s’ont Charlie.

  24. @Achmed E. Newman
    @Colin Wright

    Colin, I lean toward: he believes what he says because he WANTS to believe what he says. You can be pretty intelligent and still fool yourself. It's a wash, in fact.

    Replies: @Colin Wright

    ‘Colin, I lean toward: he believes what he says because he WANTS to believe what he says. You can be pretty intelligent and still fool yourself. It’s a wash, in fact.’

    I really suspect that for Indians such as Chetty, belief doesn’t enter into it; it’s just an intellectual game.

  25. Anonymous[234] • Disclaimer says:

    I have only read the title of your post. Not the post itself. The answer is obvious:

    Having fewer blacks is many-fold safer than having fewer rich folks.

    West Virginia, Idaho and Mississippi are the three poorest states. In murder rate per capita, West Virginia is ranked #28 and Idaho is at #46. Mississippi is at #4, as would be closely predicted by its demographics.

    • Replies: @Colin Wright
    @Anonymous

    '...West Virginia, Idaho and Mississippi are the three poorest states. In murder rate per capita, West Virginia is ranked #28 and Idaho is at #46. Mississippi is at #4, as would be closely predicted by its demographics.'

    Lol. That's telling.

    You could do the same with gun ownership, I imagine. You could arm a presentable light infantry division with what's floating around this town. As I mentioned, we just blew our streak. After three years, an actual homicide.

    One. No blacks, you see.

  26. ‘…Raj Chetty’s theory appears to be that if you can get ghetto moms to move to a nice suburb before their sons are headed for the street gang thug life track, the sons will do a lot better…‘…

    One suspicion I have is that would render Chetty’s hypothesis more or less meaningless is that below a certain percentage, blacks (or anyone else) will conform to the expectations of their neighbors.

    Move my family to Japan, and we will start to conform to Japanese norms concerning noise, littering, barking dogs, etc.

    Similarly, we have a few (less than half a percent blacks) in our county — and they seem to conform more or less to our (decidedly modest) standards of social decorum.

    So yeah — no doubt you could move a few blacks out to white suburbia. So long as you didn’t go over a few percent, their behavior would probably improve. Beyond demonstrating that man is indeed a social animal, it wouldn’t mean much.

  27. Raj Chetty’s theory appears to be that if you can get ghetto moms to move to a nice suburb before their sons are headed for the street gang thug life track, the sons will do a lot better.

    I’d say get them on the fast track to Yuppy liberal neighborhoods asap to test this theory.

    one other possible reason why blacker neighborhoods tend to have higher murder rates than nonblacker neighborhoods of the same average deprivation level is that black neighborhoods have more blacks

    I wonder what would happen to the murder rates if Mestizos were broken out as well. In other words, what’s the murder rate in poor White neighborhoods, not just poor and without Blacks.

    Anyway, this is why segregation is so good for White people and must be brought back.

  28. Raj Chetty’s theory appears to be that if you can get ghetto moms to move to a nice suburb before their sons are headed for the street gang thug life track, the sons will do a lot better. But it’s hard to evaluate this using this data.

    I don’t think there is much doubt about this, statistically.

    However, the people in that neighborhood will bear the cost.

    This gets are the heart of minoritarianism:
    Are people allowed to organically create their own society–enjoy their own people and culture for themselves–or are they slaves or serfs who exist so minorities can extract from them.

    The premise of America is the former.

    In the new minoritarian American Constitution of the last 50 years it’s the latter.

  29. @Colin Wright
    Here in my county in rural Oregon -- poor and heavily armed but only 0.3 % black -- we just broke our streak. After three years, there was an actual murder.

    This with a population of a hundred thousand -- but so few blacks.

    Go figure.

    Replies: @Bobby Jones, @stillCARealist, @Bill Jones, @(((Owen)))

    So your murder rate per 100k per year is almost exactly your black percentage of the population of the county. Interesting. I wonder what the regression line would look like for that using every American county.

    • Replies: @Colin Wright
    @Bobby Jones

    'So your murder rate per 100k per year is almost exactly your black percentage of the population of the county. Interesting. I wonder what the regression line would look like for that using every American county.'

    Sadly, our actual murderer of last week seems to have been white -- but I was amused last year when we had a shooting (not killing) and the shooter was one of our few blacks.

    What are the odds?

  30. Black individuals of the same income level as White individuals were at higher risk of being shot,

    Blacks don’t kill people – they are at risk of being shot.

    Besides residential segregation reducing Black individuals’ socioeconomic status by such mechanisms as inhibiting wealth accumulation through housing value and limiting access to high-quality schools,

    Blacks don’t destroy property – they have their housing values inhibited.
    Blacks don’t destroy schools – they have their access limited.

    the legacy of punitive law enforcement leading to difficulties controlling crime

    You don’t stop killers from killing when you put them in jail – difficulties are created.

    lower collective efficacy due to lack of political power or city responsiveness,

    Big city Democrats don’t turn killers lose in black neighborhoods to kill again – cities lack efficacy and responsiveness.

    I suppose it’s appropriate for these writers to use the passive voice in all their sentences, since they are writing about people with no agency.

  31. lower collective efficacy due to lack of political power or city responsiveness

    Carve that on America’s tombstone

  32. @Colin Wright
    @clifford brown

    'Does Chetty actually believe what he says?'

    I'd be very surprised if he did.

    Replies: @Achmed E. Newman, @anonymousperson

    I would be even more surprised if he actually lived in a black neighborhood.

    • Replies: @Colin Wright
    @anonymousperson

    'I would be even more surprised if he actually lived in a black neighborhood.'

    I'd be incredulous.

  33. @TG
    Yes, many interesting points. But try this:

    In Acapulco. Mexico, where most people are 'white' (now hispanic), the murder rate is about 107 per 100,000 per year.

    In mostly black Baltimore Maryland, USA, the murder rate is about 55.5 per 100,000 per year.

    https://www.statista.com/statistics/243797/ranking-of-the-most-dangerous-cities-in-the-world-by-murder-rate-per-capita/

    Yeah sure, statistically, blacks do seem to correlate with crime. But there's more to it than that, isn't there?

    Replies: @Polistra, @anonymousperson, @Bardon Kaldian, @International Jew, @Paul Mendez, @Vicente Guerrero

    Yeah sure, statistically, blacks do seem to correlate with crime. But there’s more to it than that, isn’t there?

    Uh, yeah. Latinos correlate with crime too. Your point?

  34. @TG
    Yes, many interesting points. But try this:

    In Acapulco. Mexico, where most people are 'white' (now hispanic), the murder rate is about 107 per 100,000 per year.

    In mostly black Baltimore Maryland, USA, the murder rate is about 55.5 per 100,000 per year.

    https://www.statista.com/statistics/243797/ranking-of-the-most-dangerous-cities-in-the-world-by-murder-rate-per-capita/

    Yeah sure, statistically, blacks do seem to correlate with crime. But there's more to it than that, isn't there?

    Replies: @Polistra, @anonymousperson, @Bardon Kaldian, @International Jew, @Paul Mendez, @Vicente Guerrero

    “White” means very different things in different countries. What passes for “white” in one country would be laughed at as such in another. Thus I would be very cautious in making such comparisons as it is unlikely they are true apples to apples measurements.

    • Replies: @Forbes
    @anonymousperson

    The study is based on US data, no? Which largely reflects US social, economic, and cultural conditions. Extrapolations to other countries (and other data classifications) would be a misuse of the data.

  35. @Polistra
    @Tyrone Goldberg

    7. Permit race trolls free rein throughout the entire ecology of unz.com. (Done!)

    8. Establish an arena for fight-to-the-death grudge matches between TD and Alden.

    9. Tie your own shoelaces, homey.

    10. Come on everyone! Join in!

    ------------------------------------------

    PS: Ban guns. LOL. Yeah, also instruct negroes to stop breaking the law! Fair's fair, right?

    Replies: @Gary in Gramercy

    Tyrone Shoelaces! Whatever happened to him? Did he get shot during a game of midnight basketball?

  36. Raj Chetty’s theory appears to be that if you can get ghetto moms to move to a nice suburb before their sons are headed for the street gang thug life track, the sons will do a lot better

    They should try this in India. Imagine the human capital gains as untouchables and other disadvantaged castes move right into the brahmin spots and just flourish, Raj.

    Second thought: move the moms of East Palo Alto into Palo Alto. If it doesn’t work there, it won’t work anywhere else in America.

  37. @Ghost of Bull Moose

    Also, one other possible reason why blacker neighborhoods of tend to have higher murder rates than nonblacker neighborhoods of the same average deprivation level is that black neighborhoods have more blacks:
     
    I feel like a Catskills comedian in the 70s got away with this joke. Everybody loves racist jokes anyway, especially the victims. At least the ones who aren't mental cases.

    Anyway, as a Mischling let me tell this one.

    3 Jews are walking down the street and they see a sign in front of a church, '$1000 for all converts.' the first one says, I'm going to get some of this action. He goes in, and a short time later emerges. His friends say, "Well, did you get the money?' The first guy says "Is that all you people think about?'

    Replies: @Dissident, @Donald A Thomson, @SafeNow

    “Is that all you people think about?’

    A classic. I recall the same joke being told by Jack D but with the differences (a) that there were only two Jews*, and (b) punchline was nearly identical to yours but preceded with Money?!”

    Were you, by any chance, raised Catholic? If yes, were you taught to always bring a lawyer with you

    [MORE]
    when you went to confession?

    *But , of course, at least three opinions

    • Replies: @Gary in Gramercy
    @Dissident

    You're right about the joke. I read it years ago, in a book full of Jewish jokes. It had Abe and Sol -- already, you know they sound like the robot tailors in Sleeper -- passing the church, seeing the sign ("$1,000 to anyone who will convert"). Abe says, "Sol, I'm going inside to have a look."

    Ten, fifteen, twenty minutes go by. Eventually, after 40 minutes, Abe comes out. Sol has questions: "Who's in charge? Why are they advertising? Is anyone converting? Did you get the thousand dollars?"

    Abe draws himself up, all 5'3" of him, and intones, in perfect Locust Valley Lockjaw: "Money! All you people care about is money."

    (When telling the joke, the contrast between Abe's pre- and post-conversion voices -- the latter of which should make him sound like William F. Buckley, Jr., urging us not to immanentize the eschaton -- can be very funny, if you're good with accents.)

    Replies: @Dissident

  38. why blacker neighborhoods of tend to have higher murder rates

    Perhaps you had meant to write, neighborhoods of Blackness?

  39. @TG
    Yes, many interesting points. But try this:

    In Acapulco. Mexico, where most people are 'white' (now hispanic), the murder rate is about 107 per 100,000 per year.

    In mostly black Baltimore Maryland, USA, the murder rate is about 55.5 per 100,000 per year.

    https://www.statista.com/statistics/243797/ranking-of-the-most-dangerous-cities-in-the-world-by-murder-rate-per-capita/

    Yeah sure, statistically, blacks do seem to correlate with crime. But there's more to it than that, isn't there?

    Replies: @Polistra, @anonymousperson, @Bardon Kaldian, @International Jew, @Paul Mendez, @Vicente Guerrero

    Hispanics, even white (or “white”), are prone to high crime rate everywhere:

    Buenos Aires, mostly white: https://www.numbeo.com/crime/in/Buenos-Aires

    On the other hand, Moscow: https://www.numbeo.com/crime/in/Moscow

  40. @Darwin's Sh-tlist
    An additional variable I've wondered about with respect to crime rates is population density. All else being equal, does having more people per square mile result in more murders per 100,000? I can see possible effects in both directions. Higher density means more potentially violent interactions, but also increases the likelihood of witnesses or cops being around, which could be a deterrent.

    Replies: @Polistra, @Feryl, @Hibernian, @Brutusale

    But tolerance of population density seems to be race related, e.g. North Asians and Europeans can better avoid shooting each other over minor beefs than blacks can. There’s little doubt that transplanting blacks from smaller Southern towns and mid-sized/not so dense Southern cities to the ever de-industrializing urban North was a horrible idea that’s resulted in both overpopulation of blacks and many ill-fated beefs.

    WRT mental illness, teeming numbers of white and black homeless nutjobs will wreck any cities perceived (and actual) quality of life. Whites these days tend to not be thuggish criminals, but “we” are far too numerous in the drug user and crazy column.

  41. @Polistra
    @Darwin's Sh-tlist


    Higher density means more potentially violent interactions, but also increases the likelihood of witnesses or cops being around, which could be a deterrent.
     
    Just look at rats. The more you cram into the cages, the more they act like, well, you know.

    And thinking ahead, worrying about witnesses or cops? You are so white, dude.

    Replies: @AceDeuce

    “Just look at rats. The more you cram into the cages, the more they act like, well, you know.”

    Yeah, that’s why Tokyo, Seoul, and Singapore have so much crime…..

    • Thanks: northeast
  42. @Muggles

    Raj Chetty’s theory appears to be that if you can get ghetto moms to move to a nice suburb before their sons are headed for the street gang thug life track, the sons will do a lot better.
     
    Fairly good thesis. Also beneficial for the daughters, since they may have a better chance of graduating w/o pregnancy or criminal record. And meet better men.

    Since absence of male role models is a major factor in the feral male population, particularly in the black community (a big chunk of older black males are either dead or imprisoned), I have been thinking about the idea of school "male wardens" for homerooms.

    Other than coaches, who do the heavy lifting in the black community, these wardens could be teachers assistants for the discipline, certain paper shuffling tasks (or inputting), and work to keep order and provide a watchful eye. This would be a great job for 40+ males who otherwise won't or can't work too hard doing something else. Yes, strict standards for hiring, etc. But considering how much public education bureaucracies spend on failed programs, this might work.

    If you grow up where most people work and have good values, you will grow up better. The opposite is also true.

    Replies: @ic1000, @Travis

    “Wardens” would be an excellent idea, if aspects of blacks’ behavior contributed to their problems. In the Current Year, with kulaks running amok everywhere, we know better.

  43. @TG
    Yes, many interesting points. But try this:

    In Acapulco. Mexico, where most people are 'white' (now hispanic), the murder rate is about 107 per 100,000 per year.

    In mostly black Baltimore Maryland, USA, the murder rate is about 55.5 per 100,000 per year.

    https://www.statista.com/statistics/243797/ranking-of-the-most-dangerous-cities-in-the-world-by-murder-rate-per-capita/

    Yeah sure, statistically, blacks do seem to correlate with crime. But there's more to it than that, isn't there?

    Replies: @Polistra, @anonymousperson, @Bardon Kaldian, @International Jew, @Paul Mendez, @Vicente Guerrero

    Acapulco is basically a war zone for narcotraficantes.

  44. @Dissident
    @Ghost of Bull Moose


    “Is that all you people think about?’
     
    A classic. I recall the same joke being told by Jack D but with the differences (a) that there were only two Jews*, and (b) punchline was nearly identical to yours but preceded with "Money?!"

    Were you, by any chance, raised Catholic? If yes, were you taught to always bring a lawyer with you when you went to confession?

    *But , of course, at least three opinions...

    Replies: @Gary in Gramercy

    You’re right about the joke. I read it years ago, in a book full of Jewish jokes. It had Abe and Sol — already, you know they sound like the robot tailors in Sleeper — passing the church, seeing the sign (“$1,000 to anyone who will convert”). Abe says, “Sol, I’m going inside to have a look.”

    Ten, fifteen, twenty minutes go by. Eventually, after 40 minutes, Abe comes out. Sol has questions: “Who’s in charge? Why are they advertising? Is anyone converting? Did you get the thousand dollars?”

    Abe draws himself up, all 5’3″ of him, and intones, in perfect Locust Valley Lockjaw: “Money! All you people care about is money.”

    (When telling the joke, the contrast between Abe’s pre- and post-conversion voices — the latter of which should make him sound like William F. Buckley, Jr., urging us not to immanentize the eschaton — can be very funny, if you’re good with accents.)

    • Replies: @Dissident
    @Gary in Gramercy


    (When telling the joke, the contrast between Abe’s pre- and post-conversion voices — the latter of which should make him sound like William F. Buckley, Jr., urging us not to immanentize the eschaton — can be very funny, if you’re good with accents.)
     
    Thanks. Your version may very well be ideal for a verbal telling of the joke, but the one that I had read here from Jack D worked quite well for the written medium. His had the companion of the Jew who had converted first ask how the latter's experience went, and then, impatiently interrupt him while in the course of answering with something to the effect of, "Nu? What about the money?! Did you get the money?!".

    In the way I had modified and adapted that 'lawyer to confession' joke in my reply to Ghost of Bull Moose, I fear I may have ruined or at least detracted from the joke. (I certainly hope that GoBM did not take offense at me for it.) The joke, paraphrased from memory from when I heard it as much as two or more decades ago from Joey Reynolds*, went,


    My mother was Catholic and my father was Jewish. I was raised Catholic but taught to always bring a lawyer with me when I went to Confession.
     
    *Buffalo, NY native and Rock and Roll Hall of Fame inductee who used to host an overnight show on NYC's WOR radio.
  45. @TG
    Yes, many interesting points. But try this:

    In Acapulco. Mexico, where most people are 'white' (now hispanic), the murder rate is about 107 per 100,000 per year.

    In mostly black Baltimore Maryland, USA, the murder rate is about 55.5 per 100,000 per year.

    https://www.statista.com/statistics/243797/ranking-of-the-most-dangerous-cities-in-the-world-by-murder-rate-per-capita/

    Yeah sure, statistically, blacks do seem to correlate with crime. But there's more to it than that, isn't there?

    Replies: @Polistra, @anonymousperson, @Bardon Kaldian, @International Jew, @Paul Mendez, @Vicente Guerrero

    In Acapulco. Mexico, where most people are ‘white’ (now hispanic), the murder rate is about 107 per 100,000 per year

    .

    Indios from Central America seem to be exceptionally bloodthirsty. The Aztecs practiced mass murder on an industrial scale. While black gang-bangers shoot at each other a lot, they are less likely to knife/hack/dismember/decapitate their victims. Or annihilate the victim’s family as well.

    Black violence seems to be mainly the result of poor impulse control. Indio violence seems to be something darker

  46. @Reg Cæsar
    We lived in a black-majority neighborhood in the city. There was very little crime, almost none of it violent. This is probably because they were African immigrants, most refugees. The threat of deportation is a strong deterrent unavailable for use with native blacks.

    Also, self-selection is involved, and, as with "Asians" in Hawaii, the race may be in the majority, but no one group within it is.

    In most cases both parents were employed. The main threat to safety was unsupervised teens playing rough games of soccer.

    Replies: @AKAHorace

    We lived in a black-majority neighborhood in the city. There was very little crime, almost none of it violent. This is probably because they were African immigrants, most refugees. The threat of deportation is a strong deterrent unavailable for use with native black

    I have heard African immigrants say that they have problems with Black Americans. I am not sure though if with time Africans will assimilate to the US black majority.

    • Replies: @Reg Cæsar
    @AKAHorace


    I have heard African immigrants say that they have problems with Black Americans. I am not sure though if with time Africans will assimilate to the US black majority.
     
    Caribbean Anglophone blacks assimilate to the upper reaches of black society. They are already steeped in the Anglo season culture, and are selected for drive and ability. Whether West Africans from the British colonies can do the same is more uncertain. At least they already drive on the right.

    There are four major races in Africa. (Not counting the Malagasy or late arrivals.) The lighter-skinned at the top and bottom of the continent are obviously different, but people mistakenly assume the two in the middle are similar to each other just because their skin tones are. They do have some things in common, but in other ways they are night and day.

    E.g., out-marriage. It's a male thing with the West Africans, but more a female thing among the East Africans. The world's four most famous Somaliwomen, politicians Ayaan Hirsi Ali and Ilhan Omar, and models Iman and Waris Dirie, all married men of other races, three of them white. Can anybody name a single Somali man who married outside his race?

    Replies: @Gurney Halleck

  47. This looks relevant to something I’ve been wondering about since watching a video Steve posted a while back (too far back for me to find it), in which a liberal criminologist seemed to suggest that the high overall black crime rate was entirely due to an extremely violent 5% of the black population, while the remaining 95% were basically as law abiding as whites. This would be very interesting if true, but the data Steve is looking at here suggests that it is not, and that in fact blacks are more violent than whites across the board.

  48. The thing about blacks in the USA is that things often get worse when they get more money. Left wing policy wonks and a few right wing ones are very excited about the stimulus which pays the child tax credit in advance and in monthly installments. Based on their spreadsheets they claim it will cut child poverty in half.

    What will end up happening with black though. Is that money will be used to get nails done, expensive designer outfits and other materials that will become the source of conflict. The last thing the money will be used for us to alleviate child poverty. However you can’t tell these wonks anything.

    • Replies: @HammerJack
    @Ed

    ......

    , @HammerJack
    @Ed

    Is this accurate? [WSJ comments]

    https://i.ibb.co/23BkqDs/Capture-2021-03-09-21-11-49-2.png

    The thing is, inmates' children already get checks under the Biden plan--as much as if they were adults, in fact.

    Wish I could get a check.

  49. Here in the Rust Belt City Metropolitan Area, it is known that an important aspect of Low-Deprivation-Index census tracts is their proximity to High-Index tracts. Walking distance?

    Privileged residents of close-in privileged neighborhoods worry about crime, a lot. Those with equivalent Zillow numbers and a highway commute: not so much.

    I followed the link to JAMA to see if the data in the Supplement is amenable to such an analysis. Oops, no Supplement.

    • Replies: @stillCARealist
    @ic1000

    As to my city, quite white and filled with middle and upper middle classes, there is almost no violent crime. But thefts are frustratingly high; higher than the state average in fact. why? Well, we're a target for the thieves from the neighboring crummy parts. They live in section 8 housing, or in the poor parts of Sacramento suburbs, and pool their resources to come to my town and rip off stuff. Lovely.

    Of course, another aspect is that people around here are more likely to report every single theft. The local cops are actually nice people and will solemnly take down all details of your complaint. And the NextDoor app is connecting everyone else to the problems and encouraging us to report it all.

  50. How about a study of gangsta rapper homicides?

  51. @No Recent Commenting History
    @Tyrone Goldberg

    http://dev.fluffyduck.com.au/gun-duck.png

    Replies: @Achmed E. Newman, @Joe Stalin

    Indeed, Tiny Duck better up his game.

    Tiny Duck wields a knife, and Tyrone Goldberg points a Glock, sideways. Well, it’s about even…

    • Replies: @MEH 0910
    @Achmed E. Newman

    Tiny Duck wields sock puppet Tyrone Goldberg wielding a gun.

    https://thumbs.gfycat.com/IndolentBadGoosefish-max-1mb.gif

    Peanut Live 215 Philly Peanut's Pay Back
    https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=bcehlk57AOM

  52. @Ed
    The thing about blacks in the USA is that things often get worse when they get more money. Left wing policy wonks and a few right wing ones are very excited about the stimulus which pays the child tax credit in advance and in monthly installments. Based on their spreadsheets they claim it will cut child poverty in half.

    What will end up happening with black though. Is that money will be used to get nails done, expensive designer outfits and other materials that will become the source of conflict. The last thing the money will be used for us to alleviate child poverty. However you can’t tell these wonks anything.

    Replies: @HammerJack, @HammerJack

    ……

  53. What’s the worse thing you can call a black person to their face? It begins with N and ends with R. Neighbor.

  54. @Ed
    The thing about blacks in the USA is that things often get worse when they get more money. Left wing policy wonks and a few right wing ones are very excited about the stimulus which pays the child tax credit in advance and in monthly installments. Based on their spreadsheets they claim it will cut child poverty in half.

    What will end up happening with black though. Is that money will be used to get nails done, expensive designer outfits and other materials that will become the source of conflict. The last thing the money will be used for us to alleviate child poverty. However you can’t tell these wonks anything.

    Replies: @HammerJack, @HammerJack

    Is this accurate? [WSJ comments]

    The thing is, inmates’ children already get checks under the Biden plan–as much as if they were adults, in fact.

    Wish I could get a check.

  55. @Tyrone Goldberg
    Solutions

    1. Ban guns so that the tools of the trade are more difficult to obtain

    2. Educate young people on real history and white supremacy and perfidy so that there is an understanding of what caused the disparities

    3. Encourage white girls to engage in romantic conduct with Men of Colour exclusively so as to discourage potential production of racists

    4. Ban white males from the military police force so that Men of Colour are the dispensers of justice thereby giving them a stake in society

    5. Ban white flight through taxes

    6. Allow more immigration so that the white population is lessened thereby milking racism more effectively

    Replies: @No Recent Commenting History, @MEH 0910, @Polistra, @Hernan Pizzaro del Blanco

    This is the actual solution being implemented today. One of the reasons the Black population has doubled since 1970 is from miscegenation. Over the last 50 years the Black population has grown from 22 million to 45 million today. During this time the white population has stagnated. The White population barely grew from 1970 and has been declining over the last decade.

    One reason the white population will continue to shrink is miscegenation. While it takes two white people to have a white child, it only takes one Black parent to make a Black baby. Over the last decade 10% of the babies born to white mothers are not considered white, thus white fertility is much lower than the reported figure of 1.7 and is actually around 1.5 children white children per white female. White fertility would need to reach 2.5 to stabilize the white population if 10% of white females mate with non-white fathers. But based on current trends whites are increasing their mating with non-whites each year. This is a big reason Whites will be a minority in the US by by 2040. We are just starting to see the results of whites as a minority, soon whites will be a minority of those in law enforcement across America as well as a minority of those in the military and government.

    • Replies: @anonymousperson
    @Hernan Pizzaro del Blanco

    For whites miscegenation is a double subtraction.

  56. @JimDandy
    Weird--in totally out-of-control sick-woke Chicago, where black "authorities" like Kim Foxx are hard at work successfully decriminalizing violent black crime, what strikes me as a totally outrageous (and possibly racist) sentence has been handed down.

    https://cwbchicago.com/2021/03/65-years-judge-sentences-man-for-role-in-slaying-of-off-duty-cop-in-river-north.html

    Replies: @Elli, @vhrm

    Battle later told police he helped Jackson because they are both members of the Gangster Disciples street gang.

    So Battle knew what would happen. 65 years is not excessive, as long as Jackson and Washington get more. Such a long sentence must have been because the victim was a cop, even though the killers didn’t know that. If they’d shot a Hispanic drywaller, 10 to 15.

    • Replies: @JimDandy
    @Elli

    65 years is not excessive

    Thanks, but I disagree.

  57. @Achmed E. Newman
    @No Recent Commenting History

    Indeed, Tiny Duck better up his game.

    Tiny Duck wields a knife, and Tyrone Goldberg points a Glock, sideways. Well, it's about even...

    Replies: @MEH 0910

    Tiny Duck wields sock puppet Tyrone Goldberg wielding a gun.


    [MORE]

    Peanut Live 215 Philly Peanut’s Pay Back

  58. @Darwin's Sh-tlist
    An additional variable I've wondered about with respect to crime rates is population density. All else being equal, does having more people per square mile result in more murders per 100,000? I can see possible effects in both directions. Higher density means more potentially violent interactions, but also increases the likelihood of witnesses or cops being around, which could be a deterrent.

    Replies: @Polistra, @Feryl, @Hibernian, @Brutusale

    …increases the likelihood of witnesses…

    Snitches get stitches, if not tombstones.

    • Replies: @Hibernian
    @Hibernian

    Sorry, meant this as a reply to the post above.

  59. @Hibernian
    @Darwin's Sh-tlist


    ...increases the likelihood of witnesses...
     
    Snitches get stitches, if not tombstones.

    Replies: @Hibernian

    Sorry, meant this as a reply to the post above.

  60. You want your neighbors to be white and fairly affluent — but not too affluent. That’s where you get into creepy Claus von Bulow/Jean Harris/Phil Spector/Kennedy Family territory. And as we see on TV detective shows, rich people can be especially cold, crafty and determined when it comes to bumping each other off.

    https://listverse.com/2019/10/26/murders-committed-rich/

  61. While it seems abundantly clear that changing the social environment doesn’t really change cognitive performance, there are good reasons to believe it can have a significant impact on criminal behavior, in particular, if you change the peer group.
    However, it might become more difficult to socialize black kids with white middle-class norms under the current official ideology of white guilt. Incidents involving black kids are increasingly treated as reflecting racism and disparate discipline, regardless of the facts.

  62. Stop gun violence.

    Those guns are dangerous.

    They just get up and shoot people.

    They shoot more black people than white people, more men than women.

    Guns are racist.

    Like that robo-dog in the Bronx.

    • Replies: @Gary in Gramercy
    @Paperback Writer

    "Guns are racist.

    "Like that robo-dog in the Bronx."

    Or Joe Biden's German Shepherd, Major, who got sent back to Delaware last week for mixing it up with an unidentified member of the White House security staff.

    Ten bucks says "unidentified" means the same thing it means when news reports don't report the name of a perp, much less show a picture.

    Dogs don't know from "systemic racism." They know which humans are good, and which ones are bad. (Unfortunately, they can be swayed by treats, not unlike certain humans.)

  63. It’s still amazing – and infuriating – at how hard our intellectuals work to avoid noting that different racial groups in America have very different cultural values and behavior that contribute to the disparate outcomes in crime, family structure, educational achievement, etc. Obviously the HBD stuff is too hot for most people to contemplate, but it’s hard to miss things like the number of free-range black kids wandering around commercial areas far from their homes in nearly any large city, the differing levels of cleanliness and order in more downscale neighborhoods depending on the dominant group, the effort (or lack thereof) different groups put into making use of schools for their kids, etc., etc.

    • Replies: @AndrewR
    @Arclight

    Oh, they notice that just fine. They just spend their energy on blaming white people for all the worst aspects of black culture.

  64. @Arclight
    It's still amazing - and infuriating - at how hard our intellectuals work to avoid noting that different racial groups in America have very different cultural values and behavior that contribute to the disparate outcomes in crime, family structure, educational achievement, etc. Obviously the HBD stuff is too hot for most people to contemplate, but it's hard to miss things like the number of free-range black kids wandering around commercial areas far from their homes in nearly any large city, the differing levels of cleanliness and order in more downscale neighborhoods depending on the dominant group, the effort (or lack thereof) different groups put into making use of schools for their kids, etc., etc.

    Replies: @AndrewR

    Oh, they notice that just fine. They just spend their energy on blaming white people for all the worst aspects of black culture.

  65. @Colin Wright
    Here in my county in rural Oregon -- poor and heavily armed but only 0.3 % black -- we just broke our streak. After three years, there was an actual murder.

    This with a population of a hundred thousand -- but so few blacks.

    Go figure.

    Replies: @Bobby Jones, @stillCARealist, @Bill Jones, @(((Owen)))

    My town is the same, except in the last 2 years when we went from less than one murder per year, to 4. Oh boy! The last 2020 murder was criminals, who should have been behind bars, killing a robbery target, who was looking for a prostitute, who was on drugs. All were caught, so here’s hoping that they lock these people up for decades.

    Population: 135k

  66. @ic1000
    Here in the Rust Belt City Metropolitan Area, it is known that an important aspect of Low-Deprivation-Index census tracts is their proximity to High-Index tracts. Walking distance?

    Privileged residents of close-in privileged neighborhoods worry about crime, a lot. Those with equivalent Zillow numbers and a highway commute: not so much.

    I followed the link to JAMA to see if the data in the Supplement is amenable to such an analysis. Oops, no Supplement.

    Replies: @stillCARealist

    As to my city, quite white and filled with middle and upper middle classes, there is almost no violent crime. But thefts are frustratingly high; higher than the state average in fact. why? Well, we’re a target for the thieves from the neighboring crummy parts. They live in section 8 housing, or in the poor parts of Sacramento suburbs, and pool their resources to come to my town and rip off stuff. Lovely.

    Of course, another aspect is that people around here are more likely to report every single theft. The local cops are actually nice people and will solemnly take down all details of your complaint. And the NextDoor app is connecting everyone else to the problems and encouraging us to report it all.

  67. Anon[223] • Disclaimer says:

    Steve,

    One aspect of Raj’s data that I wish he controlled for was also the age/circumstances of the mother in these calculations. Lots of Black babies in America are born as accidental pregnancies to single often youthful mothers, who obviously will not have good pickings in both genetic and cultural terms. What I noticed is that despite the nominally higher income mobility of Hispanics for generations, Blacks actually have higher median and mean incomes in the United States. I think the differential can be explained with the fact that middle-class+ Blacks virtually have no children, and that the underclass Blacks are where the vast majority of the kids are born. This process can actually be somewhat dysgenic in regards for the socioeconomic standing of Blacks, and that can play a role in their lower income mobility.

    [MORE]

    For instance, you can have a single-Black mother with a household income of 35k, compared to a stable Hispanic family with a household income of 35k. The difference is the Black kid is born to the “bottom tier” of African Americans, and the Hispanic kid is born to the “middle-tier” of Hispanics overall. So, in material life prospects, the Hispanic kid does better, but Raj circumscribes that differential to the neighborhood.

    So, when Raj Chetty says that neighborhoods account for differences in life outcomes, what I suspect that really means is that we should create policies that lead to a situation where a higher % of Black birthrates are given to Middle-class+ Blacks.

    I could be totally wrong, but that is my interpretation

  68. The higher the percentile ranking of a neighborhood on the deprivation index, the worse it is.

    They need a depravity index. Black neighborhoods would be off the charts.

  69. @Technite78

    Potential explanations include the following being more prevalent in higher proportion Black neighborhoods: lack of institutional resources and opportunities caused by racial wealth gaps and underinvestment, the legacy of punitive law enforcement leading to difficulties controlling crime, lower collective efficacy due to lack of political power or city responsiveness, geographic proximity to poor neighborhoods, and gang networks or interconnections.
     
    Potential explanations exclude the following:

    Black neighborhoods have far more violent and psychopathic individuals.

    etc.

    Replies: @Bill Jones, @Forbes

    It’s hard not to laugh when the solution seems to be to give more political power to more violent stupid people with no impulse control.

    What could go wrong?

  70. From my personal experiences…
    I lived in Detroit and had what I considered to be “good” neighbors. Mind you, not “good black” neighbors, but just good neighbors whose skin color did not (seem to) matter. We helped each other, whenever possible, looked out for each other, and had friendly relations, shared family events, barbecues and other social events.
    The “troubles” started when my “good neighbors” invited their “ghetto rat” relatives to their parties. I restored an old car to near showroom condition and parked it in my driveway. The “ghetto rats” decided that my car would be a good place to sit (on the hood). Asking them to remove themselves was met with responses of f#ck you” and other derogatory responses. Upon discussing the situation with my “good neighbor”, he pretty much told me that “boys will be boys” and to “suck it up” and “get over it”. My friendly relations with that neighbor cooled, as he was not willing to straighten out his “ghetto rat” relatives. Soon after, these “ghetto rats” found new avenues in which to ply their criminal “stock in trade”- breaking in to and ransacking houses–easy (white) targets…
    I soon moved to an all-white enclave after that, giving up on the city of Detroit, the criminality, harassment, and civic abuse, and have never been happier.
    THIS is why it’s perfectly legitimate for whites to not want the “nice black couple” to move into their neighborhood and is certainly a legitimate concern…

  71. @Colin Wright
    Here in my county in rural Oregon -- poor and heavily armed but only 0.3 % black -- we just broke our streak. After three years, there was an actual murder.

    This with a population of a hundred thousand -- but so few blacks.

    Go figure.

    Replies: @Bobby Jones, @stillCARealist, @Bill Jones, @(((Owen)))

    Why use percentages?

    One murder a year for every hundred blacks.

    Easier to use when Barry the Kenyan’s Section 8 imports arrive in your White town.

    • Replies: @Colin Wright
    @Bill Jones

    'Easier to use when Barry the Kenyan’s Section 8 imports arrive in your White town.'

    You know, I think we do get a few of those.

    It's ironic. Portland et al presumably just love their darkies the bestest -- but those towns are 'spensive.

    So a scattering of persons of the negro persuasion wind up down here.

    I try to make it a point to be unfriendly -- but I fear too many of my fellow citizens are all welcoming and shit.

    The worst are the local white girls who evidently went off to the big city -- and learned a thing or two, and came back home to mommy and daddy. Unfortunately, while the black partner proved predictably transient, the mulatto toddler is permanent.

  72. @No Recent Commenting History
    @Tyrone Goldberg

    http://dev.fluffyduck.com.au/gun-duck.png

    Replies: @Achmed E. Newman, @Joe Stalin

    That brings back high school memories. The Commando Arms .45ACP was the first rifle I ever shot, and it was indoors in Chicago. No one called the cops: it’s Southside Chicago and completely normal!

    The NYC coppers captured one from David Berkowitz’s (Son of Sam) automobile I recall.

    I’m surprised the manufacturers never brought the gun back in today’s market. The weapon as shown above has a metal cast lower receiver. Later, the gun had a plastic receiver and plastic furniture, and was present at the Design Engineering show in Chicago decades ago as an exemplar of the plastic used in the furniture. I forget the name of the plastic, but it’s the same stuff Maglite uses in which they purchase in 8,000 lb lot continuing orders.

  73. @Muggles

    Raj Chetty’s theory appears to be that if you can get ghetto moms to move to a nice suburb before their sons are headed for the street gang thug life track, the sons will do a lot better.
     
    Fairly good thesis. Also beneficial for the daughters, since they may have a better chance of graduating w/o pregnancy or criminal record. And meet better men.

    Since absence of male role models is a major factor in the feral male population, particularly in the black community (a big chunk of older black males are either dead or imprisoned), I have been thinking about the idea of school "male wardens" for homerooms.

    Other than coaches, who do the heavy lifting in the black community, these wardens could be teachers assistants for the discipline, certain paper shuffling tasks (or inputting), and work to keep order and provide a watchful eye. This would be a great job for 40+ males who otherwise won't or can't work too hard doing something else. Yes, strict standards for hiring, etc. But considering how much public education bureaucracies spend on failed programs, this might work.

    If you grow up where most people work and have good values, you will grow up better. The opposite is also true.

    Replies: @ic1000, @Travis

    we do not have enough white areas left to accommodate the number of Black families who may benefit from relocating to the white towns….Most of the areas where this may have worked will quickly see many white families leaving the when the Black population in the schools exceeds 10% and then the property taxes escalate just as the home values begin to fall.

    my hometown is a good example of this. 25 years ago Blacks were 2% of the High School population. Once Blacks reached 10% of the student population the white families started moving out and property values began falling. The Black student population grew from 2% to 12% from 1990-2000, then quickly grew to 50% in the next 9 years and is now just 25% white as most white parents send their kids to one of the Catholic High Schools to avoid the public schools.

    The same fate would come to any town if Blacks started moving in. So the benefits Blacks may obtain from living in white towns would not last more than a few years, as the whites would quickly move away, as they have done in time after time when Blacks start moving in.

    so even if Blacks would benefit from living in a white town, the towns will quickly turn and there are fewer and fewer white towns left for them to target. The few white towns remaining have very expensive real estate, so most Blacks are kept out.

  74. @anonymousperson
    @Colin Wright

    I would be even more surprised if he actually lived in a black neighborhood.

    Replies: @Colin Wright

    ‘I would be even more surprised if he actually lived in a black neighborhood.’

    I’d be incredulous.

  75. @Bobby Jones
    @Colin Wright

    So your murder rate per 100k per year is almost exactly your black percentage of the population of the county. Interesting. I wonder what the regression line would look like for that using every American county.

    Replies: @Colin Wright

    ‘So your murder rate per 100k per year is almost exactly your black percentage of the population of the county. Interesting. I wonder what the regression line would look like for that using every American county.’

    Sadly, our actual murderer of last week seems to have been white — but I was amused last year when we had a shooting (not killing) and the shooter was one of our few blacks.

    What are the odds?

  76. @Darwin's Sh-tlist
    An additional variable I've wondered about with respect to crime rates is population density. All else being equal, does having more people per square mile result in more murders per 100,000? I can see possible effects in both directions. Higher density means more potentially violent interactions, but also increases the likelihood of witnesses or cops being around, which could be a deterrent.

    Replies: @Polistra, @Feryl, @Hibernian, @Brutusale

    Controlling for population density only makes blacks look worse.

    Hong Kong (no black population) has a population density of 17.3K/square mile with a murder rate of .65/100K.

    Somerville, MA (7% black) is the densest part of the Commonwealth at 7.1K/square mile. There were no murders there last year.

    Boise (1.5% black) has a population density of 2.6K/square mile and a murder rate of .44/100K.

    Baltimore (62% black) has a population density of 7.6K/square mile with a murder rate of 51.4/100K.

    Little Rock (42% black) has a population density of 1.6K/square mile with a murder rate of 19/100K.

    So, to riff on another commenter’s trope, the black rats handle density much more violently than the white and yellow rats!

    • Replies: @The Last Real Calvinist
    @Brutusale

    Actually, Hong Kong's population density is way higher than the figure you quote.

    When HK's population density is calculated in the kind of global figures you're quoting, its whole land area is used as the denominator. But HK is very mountainous, and its population is crammed into maybe 20% of its total land.

    The actual urban population density here is therefore more like 85K/square mile.

    It's also one of the safest cities on earth. You can walk around pretty much anywhere at any time, and not worry about it.

  77. If you plant grapefruit, don’t expect strawberries!

  78. And also we’d like to know what the average black deprivation level is within each neighborhood. And what the deprivation level of each black shooter was.

    Raj Chetty’s theory appears to be that if you can get ghetto moms to move to a nice suburb before their sons are headed for the street gang thug life track, the sons will do a lot better. But it’s hard to evaluate this using this data.

    Actually, I’d already demonstrated the very tenuous nature of the poverty/crime correlations seven or eight years ago based upon my urban cross-correlations analysis:

    The correlations between the Mean Income and Median Income levels and the various crime categories generally fall in the range of -0.40 to -0.60, being moderately rather than strongly negative. Even the correlation between Poverty Rate and crime—supported by the obvious truism that most street criminals are poor—is hardly enormous, falling between 0.50 and 0.70, and usually well below our racial figures…

    Indeed, the race/crime correlation so substantially exceeds the poverty/crime relationship that much of the latter may simply be a statistical artifact due to most urban blacks being poor.

    https://www.unz.com/runz/race-and-crime-in-america/

    • Thanks: ic1000
    • Replies: @anon
    @Ron Unz

    Left: "Poverty causes crime!"

    Also Left: "Lets import millions of poor immigrants, lower wages on a mass scale, and give the plebs less money than the fiscal conservative did! That'll solve the crime problem!"

    Though seriously, I recall reading an article drawn from the US census General Social Survey that found that for Blacks, birthrates were overwhelmingly skewed toward the left end of the income distribution with virtually no births on the upper right side of the curve. For Hispanics and Whites it was roughly uniform across the income distribution, and for Asians it was slightly concentrated more on the right side of the distribution.

    Does anybody know why that is or what causes it?

  79. “The US remains highly residentially segregated by race despite improvements since the 1960s.”

    Does “improvement” mean more, or less, residential segregation by race?

  80. Here’s a recent case where low time preference didn’t really work out.

    https://calapp.blogspot.com/2021/02/people-v-barrios-cal-ct-app-feb-23-2021.html

  81. anon[223] • Disclaimer says:
    @Ron Unz

    And also we’d like to know what the average black deprivation level is within each neighborhood. And what the deprivation level of each black shooter was.

    Raj Chetty’s theory appears to be that if you can get ghetto moms to move to a nice suburb before their sons are headed for the street gang thug life track, the sons will do a lot better. But it’s hard to evaluate this using this data.
     
    Actually, I'd already demonstrated the very tenuous nature of the poverty/crime correlations seven or eight years ago based upon my urban cross-correlations analysis:

    The correlations between the Mean Income and Median Income levels and the various crime categories generally fall in the range of -0.40 to -0.60, being moderately rather than strongly negative. Even the correlation between Poverty Rate and crime—supported by the obvious truism that most street criminals are poor—is hardly enormous, falling between 0.50 and 0.70, and usually well below our racial figures...

    Indeed, the race/crime correlation so substantially exceeds the poverty/crime relationship that much of the latter may simply be a statistical artifact due to most urban blacks being poor.
     
    https://www.unz.com/wp-content/uploads/2013/09/RobberyRatesCities500kPoverty.jpg

    https://www.unz.com/runz/race-and-crime-in-america/

    Replies: @anon

    Left: “Poverty causes crime!”

    Also Left: “Lets import millions of poor immigrants, lower wages on a mass scale, and give the plebs less money than the fiscal conservative did! That’ll solve the crime problem!”

    Though seriously, I recall reading an article drawn from the US census General Social Survey that found that for Blacks, birthrates were overwhelmingly skewed toward the left end of the income distribution with virtually no births on the upper right side of the curve. For Hispanics and Whites it was roughly uniform across the income distribution, and for Asians it was slightly concentrated more on the right side of the distribution.

    Does anybody know why that is or what causes it?

  82. @Bill Jones
    @Colin Wright

    Why use percentages?

    One murder a year for every hundred blacks.

    Easier to use when Barry the Kenyan's Section 8 imports arrive in your White town.

    Replies: @Colin Wright

    ‘Easier to use when Barry the Kenyan’s Section 8 imports arrive in your White town.’

    You know, I think we do get a few of those.

    It’s ironic. Portland et al presumably just love their darkies the bestest — but those towns are ‘spensive.

    So a scattering of persons of the negro persuasion wind up down here.

    I try to make it a point to be unfriendly — but I fear too many of my fellow citizens are all welcoming and shit.

    The worst are the local white girls who evidently went off to the big city — and learned a thing or two, and came back home to mommy and daddy. Unfortunately, while the black partner proved predictably transient, the mulatto toddler is permanent.

  83. @JimDandy
    Weird--in totally out-of-control sick-woke Chicago, where black "authorities" like Kim Foxx are hard at work successfully decriminalizing violent black crime, what strikes me as a totally outrageous (and possibly racist) sentence has been handed down.

    https://cwbchicago.com/2021/03/65-years-judge-sentences-man-for-role-in-slaying-of-off-duty-cop-in-river-north.html

    Replies: @Elli, @vhrm

    Yeah, that’s a pretty BS sentence, imo too. His involvement in the murder was pretty tangential. Reading a couple of articles here it’s not clear that prosecutors even accused him of knowing that the guy who did the shooting was planning to shoot.

    Apparently though he represented himself though, and not too well at that:
    https://www.chicagotribune.com/news/criminal-justice/ct-chicago-cop-killing-trial-20190816-4wzd3tprpjbh3gas5pbwqcovg4-story.html

    still, i don’t think the general “felony murder” rules around the country are just. How far out do you extrapolate a causal web? Clearly the party of 4 people who were shot at (one of whom died) had been involved in the original fight. So this scorched earth mentality should have had the three survivors charged with murder too. If they hadn’t fought with the dudes at the bar, this wouldn’t have happened. (in fact these kind of charges are not uncommon e.g. if 3 guys go rob a place and a security guard kills one of them, it’s not uncommon to charge the other 2 w/ murder of their partner even if none of the robbers shot anyone. things like that)

    Also, what about the bar? was anyone drunk ? where were the charges from that? Why didn’t they provide counselors to make sure that their patrons had worked out their negative experience at the establishment where they provided intoxicants ? Actually why is alcohol or bars even legal?
    The shooting was at 3:30am? What? why were any of these people on the streets? We’ve seen in the past year that curfews are perfectly legitimate apparently. How could those irresponsible government officials have allowed people to be on the streets at that time? Clearly they should have been charged w/ murder also.

    etc.

    • Replies: @JimDandy
    @vhrm

    I agree. This is the kind of sentence that reinforces the argument that blacks are discriminated against by the system. But beyond that issue, it seems like an unjust sentence. Did the prosecutors and judge know terrible things about this guy that weren't directly connected to this case? I don't care.

  84. @Anonymous
    I have only read the title of your post. Not the post itself. The answer is obvious:

    Having fewer blacks is many-fold safer than having fewer rich folks.

    West Virginia, Idaho and Mississippi are the three poorest states. In murder rate per capita, West Virginia is ranked #28 and Idaho is at #46. Mississippi is at #4, as would be closely predicted by its demographics.

    Replies: @Colin Wright

    ‘…West Virginia, Idaho and Mississippi are the three poorest states. In murder rate per capita, West Virginia is ranked #28 and Idaho is at #46. Mississippi is at #4, as would be closely predicted by its demographics.’

    Lol. That’s telling.

    You could do the same with gun ownership, I imagine. You could arm a presentable light infantry division with what’s floating around this town. As I mentioned, we just blew our streak. After three years, an actual homicide.

    One. No blacks, you see.

  85. @Ghost of Bull Moose

    Also, one other possible reason why blacker neighborhoods of tend to have higher murder rates than nonblacker neighborhoods of the same average deprivation level is that black neighborhoods have more blacks:
     
    I feel like a Catskills comedian in the 70s got away with this joke. Everybody loves racist jokes anyway, especially the victims. At least the ones who aren't mental cases.

    Anyway, as a Mischling let me tell this one.

    3 Jews are walking down the street and they see a sign in front of a church, '$1000 for all converts.' the first one says, I'm going to get some of this action. He goes in, and a short time later emerges. His friends say, "Well, did you get the money?' The first guy says "Is that all you people think about?'

    Replies: @Dissident, @Donald A Thomson, @SafeNow

    Why do you think you were responding to a racial joke? The simple and obvious deduction isn’t always wrong and should, at least, be considered.

    Australia lets in immigrants from everywhere but we cheat. The most important criteria for admission includes training in a field that ensures employment where candidates are in short supply. That usually means tertiary education. We don’t accept George Floyds.

    Usually, there are about a quarter of Australians who were born in other countries. Nobody cares how many children they’ve had because Indians, Chinese, Lebanese, Vietnamese etc born in Australia are so Australian.

    That was the case before we started wasting money encouraging multi-culturism and continues just the same. Of course there are people who look down on this one or that one but who cares? It’s no worse among one group than another and apathy rules ok.

    Our migrants’ skin is just as thick as ours. They don’t cry when somebody doesn’t like them and that’s a good thing. Their children do better than ours ever did at school and that’s to be expected when you have a selective immigration policy except for refugees who are a negligible minority of our immigrants. I think it’s only 10 or 15 thousand a year.
    [email protected]

  86. @TG
    Yes, many interesting points. But try this:

    In Acapulco. Mexico, where most people are 'white' (now hispanic), the murder rate is about 107 per 100,000 per year.

    In mostly black Baltimore Maryland, USA, the murder rate is about 55.5 per 100,000 per year.

    https://www.statista.com/statistics/243797/ranking-of-the-most-dangerous-cities-in-the-world-by-murder-rate-per-capita/

    Yeah sure, statistically, blacks do seem to correlate with crime. But there's more to it than that, isn't there?

    Replies: @Polistra, @anonymousperson, @Bardon Kaldian, @International Jew, @Paul Mendez, @Vicente Guerrero

    Acapulco is an Afro-Mexican state named after an afro-Mexican.

    Those are neither mestizos, whites, or Indios.

    https://www.blackhistory.com/2020/01/mexico-black-president-vicente-guerrero.html?m=1

  87. @Brutusale
    @Darwin's Sh-tlist

    Controlling for population density only makes blacks look worse.

    Hong Kong (no black population) has a population density of 17.3K/square mile with a murder rate of .65/100K.

    Somerville, MA (7% black) is the densest part of the Commonwealth at 7.1K/square mile. There were no murders there last year.

    Boise (1.5% black) has a population density of 2.6K/square mile and a murder rate of .44/100K.

    Baltimore (62% black) has a population density of 7.6K/square mile with a murder rate of 51.4/100K.

    Little Rock (42% black) has a population density of 1.6K/square mile with a murder rate of 19/100K.

    So, to riff on another commenter's trope, the black rats handle density much more violently than the white and yellow rats!

    Replies: @The Last Real Calvinist

    Actually, Hong Kong’s population density is way higher than the figure you quote.

    When HK’s population density is calculated in the kind of global figures you’re quoting, its whole land area is used as the denominator. But HK is very mountainous, and its population is crammed into maybe 20% of its total land.

    The actual urban population density here is therefore more like 85K/square mile.

    It’s also one of the safest cities on earth. You can walk around pretty much anywhere at any time, and not worry about it.

  88. @AKAHorace
    @Reg Cæsar


    We lived in a black-majority neighborhood in the city. There was very little crime, almost none of it violent. This is probably because they were African immigrants, most refugees. The threat of deportation is a strong deterrent unavailable for use with native black
     
    I have heard African immigrants say that they have problems with Black Americans. I am not sure though if with time Africans will assimilate to the US black majority.

    Replies: @Reg Cæsar

    I have heard African immigrants say that they have problems with Black Americans. I am not sure though if with time Africans will assimilate to the US black majority.

    Caribbean Anglophone blacks assimilate to the upper reaches of black society. They are already steeped in the Anglo season culture, and are selected for drive and ability. Whether West Africans from the British colonies can do the same is more uncertain. At least they already drive on the right.

    There are four major races in Africa. (Not counting the Malagasy or late arrivals.) The lighter-skinned at the top and bottom of the continent are obviously different, but people mistakenly assume the two in the middle are similar to each other just because their skin tones are. They do have some things in common, but in other ways they are night and day.

    E.g., out-marriage. It’s a male thing with the West Africans, but more a female thing among the East Africans. The world’s four most famous Somaliwomen, politicians Ayaan Hirsi Ali and Ilhan Omar, and models Iman and Waris Dirie, all married men of other races, three of them white. Can anybody name a single Somali man who married outside his race?

    • Replies: @Gurney Halleck
    @Reg Cæsar

    Yes.

    British-Somali Journalist Rageh Omaar married into English aristocracy.

    Replies: @Reg Cæsar

  89. @Elli
    @JimDandy


    Battle later told police he helped Jackson because they are both members of the Gangster Disciples street gang.
     
    So Battle knew what would happen. 65 years is not excessive, as long as Jackson and Washington get more. Such a long sentence must have been because the victim was a cop, even though the killers didn't know that. If they'd shot a Hispanic drywaller, 10 to 15.

    Replies: @JimDandy

    65 years is not excessive

    Thanks, but I disagree.

  90. @vhrm
    @JimDandy

    Yeah, that's a pretty BS sentence, imo too. His involvement in the murder was pretty tangential. Reading a couple of articles here it's not clear that prosecutors even accused him of knowing that the guy who did the shooting was planning to shoot.


    Apparently though he represented himself though, and not too well at that:
    https://www.chicagotribune.com/news/criminal-justice/ct-chicago-cop-killing-trial-20190816-4wzd3tprpjbh3gas5pbwqcovg4-story.html

    still, i don't think the general "felony murder" rules around the country are just. How far out do you extrapolate a causal web? Clearly the party of 4 people who were shot at (one of whom died) had been involved in the original fight. So this scorched earth mentality should have had the three survivors charged with murder too. If they hadn't fought with the dudes at the bar, this wouldn't have happened. (in fact these kind of charges are not uncommon e.g. if 3 guys go rob a place and a security guard kills one of them, it's not uncommon to charge the other 2 w/ murder of their partner even if none of the robbers shot anyone. things like that)

    Also, what about the bar? was anyone drunk ? where were the charges from that? Why didn't they provide counselors to make sure that their patrons had worked out their negative experience at the establishment where they provided intoxicants ? Actually why is alcohol or bars even legal?
    The shooting was at 3:30am? What? why were any of these people on the streets? We've seen in the past year that curfews are perfectly legitimate apparently. How could those irresponsible government officials have allowed people to be on the streets at that time? Clearly they should have been charged w/ murder also.

    etc.

    Replies: @JimDandy

    I agree. This is the kind of sentence that reinforces the argument that blacks are discriminated against by the system. But beyond that issue, it seems like an unjust sentence. Did the prosecutors and judge know terrible things about this guy that weren’t directly connected to this case? I don’t care.

  91. @Hernan Pizzaro del Blanco
    @Tyrone Goldberg

    This is the actual solution being implemented today. One of the reasons the Black population has doubled since 1970 is from miscegenation. Over the last 50 years the Black population has grown from 22 million to 45 million today. During this time the white population has stagnated. The White population barely grew from 1970 and has been declining over the last decade.

    One reason the white population will continue to shrink is miscegenation. While it takes two white people to have a white child, it only takes one Black parent to make a Black baby. Over the last decade 10% of the babies born to white mothers are not considered white, thus white fertility is much lower than the reported figure of 1.7 and is actually around 1.5 children white children per white female. White fertility would need to reach 2.5 to stabilize the white population if 10% of white females mate with non-white fathers. But based on current trends whites are increasing their mating with non-whites each year. This is a big reason Whites will be a minority in the US by by 2040. We are just starting to see the results of whites as a minority, soon whites will be a minority of those in law enforcement across America as well as a minority of those in the military and government.

    Replies: @anonymousperson

    For whites miscegenation is a double subtraction.

  92. @Ghost of Bull Moose

    Also, one other possible reason why blacker neighborhoods of tend to have higher murder rates than nonblacker neighborhoods of the same average deprivation level is that black neighborhoods have more blacks:
     
    I feel like a Catskills comedian in the 70s got away with this joke. Everybody loves racist jokes anyway, especially the victims. At least the ones who aren't mental cases.

    Anyway, as a Mischling let me tell this one.

    3 Jews are walking down the street and they see a sign in front of a church, '$1000 for all converts.' the first one says, I'm going to get some of this action. He goes in, and a short time later emerges. His friends say, "Well, did you get the money?' The first guy says "Is that all you people think about?'

    Replies: @Dissident, @Donald A Thomson, @SafeNow

    Jewish fellow is slightly hit by a car, collapses to the ground. A good samaritan calls an ambulance, then uses a sweatshirt to make a pillow. “It’s not much of a pillow, sir. Are you comfortable?” Reply: “I make a living.”

  93. @Paperback Writer
    Stop gun violence.

    Those guns are dangerous.

    They just get up and shoot people.

    They shoot more black people than white people, more men than women.

    Guns are racist.

    Like that robo-dog in the Bronx.

    Replies: @Gary in Gramercy

    “Guns are racist.

    “Like that robo-dog in the Bronx.”

    Or Joe Biden’s German Shepherd, Major, who got sent back to Delaware last week for mixing it up with an unidentified member of the White House security staff.

    Ten bucks says “unidentified” means the same thing it means when news reports don’t report the name of a perp, much less show a picture.

    Dogs don’t know from “systemic racism.” They know which humans are good, and which ones are bad. (Unfortunately, they can be swayed by treats, not unlike certain humans.)

  94. @Technite78

    Potential explanations include the following being more prevalent in higher proportion Black neighborhoods: lack of institutional resources and opportunities caused by racial wealth gaps and underinvestment, the legacy of punitive law enforcement leading to difficulties controlling crime, lower collective efficacy due to lack of political power or city responsiveness, geographic proximity to poor neighborhoods, and gang networks or interconnections.
     
    Potential explanations exclude the following:

    Black neighborhoods have far more violent and psychopathic individuals.

    etc.

    Replies: @Bill Jones, @Forbes

    The potential explanations, each, appear to be an inversion of cause and effect.

    1. Lack of resources, etc., are likely caused by high crime as resources flow to less violent communities.
    2. Effective law enforcement HAS led to controlling crime/violence, e.g. Giuliani/Bloomberg 20 year record of reducing crime. Violent offenders removed from neighborhoods reduces violence.
    3. Political power: Large cities have been controlled by blacks and Democrats, in some places, for half a century or more.
    4. Proximity to poor neighborhoods, gangs, networks, etc., is a tautology.

    My high school teacher would’ve commented: Must try harder, you misunderstood the assignment.

  95. This brings up an investigation topic for a future study.

    Q. Is there a homicide rate “tipping point” in communities when the black share of the population reaches say 20%?

    All things being equal in terms of the Deprivation Index, my intuition tells me that there’s probably a clustering effect or a tipping point reached when a population builds enough critical mass to exert its tendencies beyond the constraints imposed by another dominant demographic.

  96. @anonymousperson
    @TG

    "White" means very different things in different countries. What passes for "white" in one country would be laughed at as such in another. Thus I would be very cautious in making such comparisons as it is unlikely they are true apples to apples measurements.

    Replies: @Forbes

    The study is based on US data, no? Which largely reflects US social, economic, and cultural conditions. Extrapolations to other countries (and other data classifications) would be a misuse of the data.

  97. I’d say the researchers whose work is discussed in this article should test their theories in the present-day Buckhead neighborhood of Atlanta. A mere decade ago that neighborhood was like Washington, DC’s Georgetown, or NYC’s Soho. Since the city of Atlanta began “reverse gentrification” of the neighborhood by establishing Section 8 and other low-income housing programs there, with the goal of bringing more “people of color” into “magic dirt country”, the neighborhood has been on a dizzying death spiral towards ghetto-fication, attendant with accelerating crime and civil deterioration. Perhaps that answers the question posed by Sailer in this article?

  98. The question posed in this article is a little more complicated in reality. I recently bought a property in a predominantly black, working-to-middle class neighborhood in Baltimore. In my two years living there I never once heard anything that sounded like gunfire (except kids with 4th of July fireworks), rarely heard a police siren except from a long distance, never witnessed any disturbance of any kind nor was ever aware of any reported break-ins. It’s a very quiet neighborhood, and the infamous criminal woes of that city seemed as if in another state. How does one explain the difference between this relatively idyllic setting in a predominantly black urban neighborhood with, say, the crime and upheaval being caused in a setting such as Atlanta’s predominantly white Buckhead neighborhood to which more inner city blacks are being enticed to migrate?

    • LOL: 3g4me
  99. @Gary in Gramercy
    @Dissident

    You're right about the joke. I read it years ago, in a book full of Jewish jokes. It had Abe and Sol -- already, you know they sound like the robot tailors in Sleeper -- passing the church, seeing the sign ("$1,000 to anyone who will convert"). Abe says, "Sol, I'm going inside to have a look."

    Ten, fifteen, twenty minutes go by. Eventually, after 40 minutes, Abe comes out. Sol has questions: "Who's in charge? Why are they advertising? Is anyone converting? Did you get the thousand dollars?"

    Abe draws himself up, all 5'3" of him, and intones, in perfect Locust Valley Lockjaw: "Money! All you people care about is money."

    (When telling the joke, the contrast between Abe's pre- and post-conversion voices -- the latter of which should make him sound like William F. Buckley, Jr., urging us not to immanentize the eschaton -- can be very funny, if you're good with accents.)

    Replies: @Dissident

    (When telling the joke, the contrast between Abe’s pre- and post-conversion voices — the latter of which should make him sound like William F. Buckley, Jr., urging us not to immanentize the eschaton — can be very funny, if you’re good with accents.)

    Thanks. Your version may very well be ideal for a verbal telling of the joke, but the one that I had read here from Jack D worked quite well for the written medium. His had the companion of the Jew who had converted first ask how the latter’s experience went, and then, impatiently interrupt him while in the course of answering with something to the effect of, “Nu? What about the money?! Did you get the money?!”.

    In the way I had modified and adapted that ‘lawyer to confession’ joke in my reply to Ghost of Bull Moose, I fear I may have ruined or at least detracted from the joke. (I certainly hope that GoBM did not take offense at me for it.) The joke, paraphrased from memory from when I heard it as much as two or more decades ago from Joey Reynolds*, went,

    My mother was Catholic and my father was Jewish. I was raised Catholic but taught to always bring a lawyer with me when I went to Confession.

    *Buffalo, NY native and Rock and Roll Hall of Fame inductee who used to host an overnight show on NYC’s WOR radio.

  100. @Reg Cæsar
    @AKAHorace


    I have heard African immigrants say that they have problems with Black Americans. I am not sure though if with time Africans will assimilate to the US black majority.
     
    Caribbean Anglophone blacks assimilate to the upper reaches of black society. They are already steeped in the Anglo season culture, and are selected for drive and ability. Whether West Africans from the British colonies can do the same is more uncertain. At least they already drive on the right.

    There are four major races in Africa. (Not counting the Malagasy or late arrivals.) The lighter-skinned at the top and bottom of the continent are obviously different, but people mistakenly assume the two in the middle are similar to each other just because their skin tones are. They do have some things in common, but in other ways they are night and day.

    E.g., out-marriage. It's a male thing with the West Africans, but more a female thing among the East Africans. The world's four most famous Somaliwomen, politicians Ayaan Hirsi Ali and Ilhan Omar, and models Iman and Waris Dirie, all married men of other races, three of them white. Can anybody name a single Somali man who married outside his race?

    Replies: @Gurney Halleck

    Yes.

    British-Somali Journalist Rageh Omaar married into English aristocracy.

    • Replies: @Reg Cæsar
    @Gurney Halleck

    The Somali sailor Mahmood Mattan who was hanged for murder (and posthumously exonerated) married into the Welsh proletariat. Somalis have been living in Cardiff since the late 1800s. Who knew?

    ‘Killed by injustice’: The hanging of a British Somali

    Mattan's grandson is a bit of a chav. One son drowned, possibly murdered, one drank himself to death, a third got in trouble with the law. A cursèd family, indeed.

  101. @Colin Wright
    Here in my county in rural Oregon -- poor and heavily armed but only 0.3 % black -- we just broke our streak. After three years, there was an actual murder.

    This with a population of a hundred thousand -- but so few blacks.

    Go figure.

    Replies: @Bobby Jones, @stillCARealist, @Bill Jones, @(((Owen)))

    I spent two weeks in Curry County in May, carefully wearing my mask everywhere I went. None of the locals were wearing any. Seemed irresponsible

    I don’t think they had any cases until July, though. Until the snow melts, there’s almost no roads open into the area.

  102. @Gurney Halleck
    @Reg Cæsar

    Yes.

    British-Somali Journalist Rageh Omaar married into English aristocracy.

    Replies: @Reg Cæsar

    The Somali sailor Mahmood Mattan who was hanged for murder (and posthumously exonerated) married into the Welsh proletariat. Somalis have been living in Cardiff since the late 1800s. Who knew?

    ‘Killed by injustice’: The hanging of a British Somali

    Mattan’s grandson is a bit of a chav. One son drowned, possibly murdered, one drank himself to death, a third got in trouble with the law. A cursèd family, indeed.

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