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What Went Wrong with the British Plan
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Scott Alexander sums up story behind the British Plan of a few weeks ago to build herd immunity:

The British reversal

A UK critical care doctor on Reddit wrote a great explanation of their recent about-face on coronavirus strategy.

They say that over the past few years, Britain developed a cutting-edge new strategy for dealing with pandemics by building herd immunity. It was actually really novel and exciting and they were anxious to try it out. When the coronavirus came along, the government plugged its spread rate, death rate, etc into the strategy and got the plan Johnson originally announced. This is why he kept talking about how evidence-based it was and how top scientists said this was the best way to do things.

But other pandemics don’t require ventilators nearly as often as coronavirus does. So the model, which was originally built around flu, didn’t include a term for ventilator shortages. Once someone added that in, the herd immunity strategy went from clever idea to total disaster, and the UK had to perform a disastrous about-face.

You bought the world’s most sophisticated hammer, so everything looks like a nail, even when it turns out to be nitroglycerin.

 
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  1. Herd immunity, without cure or vaccine, is unironically natural selection with a different name.

    It was a shockingly amoral proposition, that it could even be discussed is evidence much far soulless, sociopathic capitalism has become the cultural norm.

    • Replies: @El Dato
    > amoral proposition

    The universe _is_ amoral. Unless you less than 16 years old, you better get used to it.

    > capitalism

    What has that to do with anything?

    In fact, it sounds quite socialist to me.

    It's also an acceptable plan ... under certain circumstances.

    , @bomag

    ...sociopathic capitalism has become the cultural norm.
     
    Is that it? Or is it the usual socialist aristocracy who likes to announce that England et al needs political correctness; Paki grooming gangs; mass immigration; more regulation of everything, all enforced by an ever more intrusive police state?
    , @Luke Lea
    I'm betting (literally with my friends!) that Boris (and Trump) had it right initially—this is just another flu epidemic, albeit a particularly nasty one—but were talked out of it by all the "experts" (including Fauci) coming down on them so hard. If so, then Cochran, Jay Man, Razib, hbdchick, and a lot of other smart people whose opinion I generally respect are going to end up with egg on their faces. We'll see.
    , @obwandiyag
    It's like the word "stochastic," which really means, "people are going to die."
  2. That’s often the problem with mathematical models. You may have all the physics and math down right and have a good handle on the initial conditions, boundary conditions, and constraints. If you leave out one unforeseen physical process (or in this case logistical), the whole thing is garbage. This is why I’ve said for 5 years or more “There is no working mathematical model of the whole Earth’s climate, dammit!’

    • Replies: @Che Blutarsky
    R0 is a function of the transmission properties of the virus, which may or may not change with time as mutations happen. It is also a function of human behavior, which changes over time in a response to the progression of disease - hygiene changes, people wear masks, people keep their distance, large events are shut down, travel is restricted. It is also a function of the population density (with spread correlating more with the square of the population density than the population density). It is also a function of cultural behaviors (greeting customs) and many other things. It might also change with respect to environmental conditions.

    The death rate depends on hospitalization capacity and many facets of demographics - age, possibly ethnicity, past tobacco/alcohol/drug use, past exposure to industrial chemicals/air pollution, obesity, auto-immune disorders, etc.

    This is just to say that modelling can tell you many interesting things about a dynamic system, but it is based on many simplifying assumptions, sometimes without much data to establish the parameters, and often with approximations to take out non-linearity so that it can be solved easier. There is a limit to what models can tell you.

    Which leads to our current situation. If the country closed down two weeks ago, when can it open back up? Certainly right now we are in a worse position than then, with the number of cases still growing rapidly, with the supply chains of vital drugs and equipment still not secure. The ability to rapidly test tens of millions of people every week is quite a ways off. Any lightening of the restrictions at this point will be a signal that the original decision to take all of the measures that were taken were mistaken.

    So, what if only 5% of the population gets it this round, it fades away in the summer months, and reappears in the fall? The "herd immunity" will be minimal, except maybe in places like NYC. Do we expect to have the ability to do mass testing by then? We'll certainly be in better shape there, but will it still be sufficient? Will we have to shut everything down again? What would be the argument against it?
    , @Anonymous
    As I said earlier, simulations (especially design simulations) aren't reality and are in no way a forward looking time machine. They merely show unexpected consequences of the assumptions built into the model. (I should add that predictive simulations are usually very elaborate curve fitting. Unless they are simulating some physical property (weather, say) they work moderately well until they fail, usually completely and suddenly. Quants beware.)

    The Imperial College was apparently done competently, and still left out an important variable. Maybe the next generation models will be better. Or, maybe, they will be used solely to influence policy, in which case they won't improve at all.

    In the meantime, this failure is one more reason to distrust governmental (and and political and academic)competence. One more weakening of legitimacy.

    , @HallParvey

    the whole thing is garbage
     
    GIGO. In computeresse, that's garbage in, garbage out.
  3. You bought the world’s most sophisticated hammer, so everything looks like a nail, even when it turns out to be nitroglycerin.

    Ha, ha, that’s a pretty good metaphor…

    But what’s odd is that I’d been reading about the whole ventilator/ICU issue for weeks on comment-threads before the Brilliant British Brains around Boris Johnson announced their plans to solve the Coronavirus problem by killing maybe a million or two million of their own citizens.

    Isn’t Johnson just some sort of Neocon? It wouldn’t surprise me if the people around him are a bunch of dimwits…

    • Replies: @but an humble craftsman
    He's a member of the british elite.
    The people whom you observe if you want to understand the neocons' success.
    Fascinatingly cultivated and intelligent twits.
    Drive ordinary Brits to distraction yet still rule the country and forever will.
    , @anon

    that’s a pretty good metaphor
     
    Replace 'hammer' with 'math'. --->
    , @LondonBob
    No he is not a neocon, apart from Neil Ferguson he has the smartest people in this area advising him, hence the measured approach.
    , @Philip Owen
    Herd immunity meant protecting the vulnerable and leaving the rest to get on with it until there was enough health care capacity to treat the vulnerable. The opposition parties never allowed this to be explained and fed the media with alarm stories.

    Then came the Imperial College forecast of 510k deaths, entirely based on a flu model. Why was it released? I suspect one or more teaching unions. The teachers did not like the idea of schools and universities staying open. An alarmist forecast suited their case. Did they even prompt Ferguson to issue it? Once in the media, school teachers and university lecturers abandoned their posts in droves. School closure became a Faite Accompli two weeks ahead of schedule. Lockdown commenced.

    The long term consequnece is that fewer people will build immunity due to the early lockdown. When the more virulent 2nd wave hits, people who owuld not otherwise have died will die and we will have less capacity (well people) than we would otherwise have had to deal with it. More dead and a longer period of economic disruption.

    The Imperial College model was supported by literallly the same group of mathematicians as support the University of East Anglia climate model, the basis for most climate models. climate modellers at UEA tend to be so inested in the model tht they manipulate the data when the real world gets it wrong as the Climategate scandal revealed.

    , @Jake
    Yes, Boris Johnson is a Brit version of American Neocons.
    , @Realist

    Isn’t Johnson just some sort of Neocon? It wouldn’t surprise me if the people around him are a bunch of dimwits…
     
    They're in politics...what else could they be.
    , @Dr. DoomNGloom
    "Isn’t Johnson just some sort of Neocon? It wouldn’t surprise me if the people around him are a bunch of dimwits…

    Maybe, but I don't think that matters.
    There are cues that the UK plan was a plan from the permanent government, i.e. civil service, and presented to Johnson for approval. "Evidence Based" is a nearly 3 decade old UK initiative to systematically weigh the available sources of empirical evidence to inform health care policy. I'd bet that the plan was cooked up in the past and dusted off. That would explain why it didn't seem to account for current novel conditions. Granted, Boris may have just been using the vernacular to gain credibility, but the words sound like they came straight from NHS.

    Here is a US example, https://www.politico.com/news/2020/03/25/trump-coronavirus-national-security-council-149285 . The portion of the story I'm most willing to accept uncritically is that the plan emerged from civil service.

    As a practical matter, I'm not sure what more we "could" have done. Getting people to accept the social distancing remains a struggle and our manufacturing capacity is so hollowed out we aren't going to produce a lot of masks. Moreover, CDC keeps telling us how masks are not only useless, but provide a false sense of security. CDC and FDA are permanent government.

    , @Muggles
    >> before the Brilliant British Brains around Boris Johnson announced their plans to solve the Coronavirus problem by killing maybe a million or two million of their own citizens<<

    Update: now Boris himself has tested positive for COVID-19 and no reports yet of him reporting to the hospice facility to gasp out his last few thoughts. I guess those "millions" to be left to die don't include VIPs such as Himself.

    Even Madonna isn't ready to hang it up.

    Another small matter, "herd immunity" isn't necessarily applicable to COVID-19. Some who tested positive, were "cured" have retested positive again. Also, some early Chinese evidence that any immunity from survival by infected individuals is short term, a few months. So who wants to volunteer to keep getting potentially lethal infections?

    Though maybe Boris is running up and down the aisles of Parliament coughing on fellow MPs, doing these blokes a "favor" you see. Here, here! Pip pip! Time for a cuppa now...
  4. Those people lost the largest empire in human history by twice mistaking which one of their rivals was the serious threat and still celebrate their double triumph –you do not seriously expect them to think things through, do you?

    • Disagree: Sebastian Hawks
    • LOL: BB753
    • Troll: jim jones
    • Replies: @Almost Missouri
    Agree, but instead of "double triumph", you should call it "double mistake".
    , @Curle
    I presume you mean Russia/USSR, but I’m thinking a different rival and that they lost their opportunity between 1861-65.
    , @Sebastian Hawks
    The Germans were insanely jealous of the English and went out of their way to make sure the war happened. The English were fine letting them have some colonies for prestige and a modest Navy that could stand it's own against most powers as long as it didn't become big enough to threaten the Royal Navy but they wanted a "reckoning" anyway. They expected to fight the last war and thought it would go like the Franco Prussian War. To be fair nobody expected the stalemate and bloodbath that occurred in 1914, a short war for dominance was expected that would settle things out with modest casualties. The treaty of course was an abomination, particularly since the Germans sent the Kaiser packing and they went ahead and ruined their economy anyway instead of letting them get back on their feet with new leadership the way MacArthur did in Japan.
  5. But other pandemics don’t require ventilators nearly as often as coronavirus does.

    I can certainly believe the “not as much”.

    But isn’t the way the flu often kills people is through pneumonia, with the cases that don’t resolve easily often requiring some sort of breathing support?

    One would think there would definitely be a coefficient(s) in the model for expected rates of required breathing support of various types. You’d just plug in what you were seeing for this new Chinese coronavirus and … “hey, this doesn’t look good!”

    Maybe it’s better in the UK, but my rough on what i’ve seen from the US public health authorities is no serious planning ever took place. (We were out of masks–masks!–on day one.) I’m sure there’s “a plan”, that fills a shelf a binders. But mostly we have a bunch of well paid, well pensioned time serving yutzes who would rather lecture us that quarantines don’t work and we need to be on guard against racism.

    • Replies: @but an humble craftsman
    On march 7th, I returned home, sharing a desk in the dining car with a woman in her late thirties who explained to me that supervising borders was impossible in our globalized times. When I tried to explain my pre-Schengen experiences to her - at one point during my studies I had to cross that border several times a day - I was told that not understanding the non-feasibility of border controls was a generational thing.

    Monday the week after that, all the Rhine crossings between Elsaß and Baden were closed - for the first time in two generations. And I mean closed as in closed, not the you-might-need-to-show-your-papers thing I grew up with which they call "closed borders" these days.

    Quite efficiently, too. While they are replaying Bergamo west of the Rhine, it is still calm on the eastern side.
    , @Neil Templeton
    Eventually a great thinning will come, be it plague, war, famine, whatever. At that time, a societal resistance to chaos, which we appear to have lost, will be of great value. In that sense the Boris Plan has merit. Play the game, let the chips fall where they may, and learn from your mistakes. A nanny culture may seem wise now, but not so tomorrow.
    , @Anon7
    “...we have a bunch of well paid, well pensioned time serving yutzes who would rather lecture us that quarantines don’t work and we need to be on guard against racism.”

    I wonder if a field that really needs the best people only once every decade or so can even attract the people it needs. Also, Public Health school graduates are overwhelmingly female now, so not just racism.

    I wonder if we’ll ever find out the names of the team that botched the Covid-19 test kit rollout. Probably not, but it’s possible that it wouldn’t have mattered.

    By mid-January, it’s probable that Covid had already been seeded in dozens of US cities by visitors from all over the world. That’s when the two key differences between Covid and the flu really kicked in. Infected people shed live virus for days before they had symptoms, and a far higher percentage of sick people need hospitalization.

    , @Kronos

    Maybe it’s better in the UK, but my rough on what i’ve seen from the US public health authorities is no serious planning ever took place. (We were out of masks–masks!–on day one.) I’m sure there’s “a plan”, that fills a shelf a binders.
     
    It seems that many countries adopted the “British Plan” as their default strategy.

    https://youtu.be/BNsTndy9CZo

    I went to find one scene of “Yes, Minister” for a post on this thread and found another great one! Great show!
    , @Thomas

    But isn’t the way the flu often kills people is through pneumonia, with the cases that don’t resolve easily often requiring some sort of breathing support?
     
    Except for H5N1 (avian influenza, the "bird flu" they always worry about leading to an eventual epidemic), flu tends to target the upper respiratory tract. SARS-CoV-2, which is causing this outbreak, targets alveolar cells deep in the lungs.

    https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Influenza#Pathophysiology
    https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Coronavirus_disease_2019#Cause
    , @Ed
    America’s death rate has been tracking Germany’s rate throughout the crisis. You’d just never know that by watching or reading the news.
    America has to be doing something right.


    https://twitter.com/steve_hanke/status/1243870954767503361?s=21


    https://twitter.com/tribelaw/status/1243627530168516614?s=21
  6. @Ron Unz

    You bought the world’s most sophisticated hammer, so everything looks like a nail, even when it turns out to be nitroglycerin.
     
    Ha, ha, that's a pretty good metaphor...

    But what's odd is that I'd been reading about the whole ventilator/ICU issue for weeks on comment-threads before the Brilliant British Brains around Boris Johnson announced their plans to solve the Coronavirus problem by killing maybe a million or two million of their own citizens.

    Isn't Johnson just some sort of Neocon? It wouldn't surprise me if the people around him are a bunch of dimwits...

    He’s a member of the british elite.
    The people whom you observe if you want to understand the neocons’ success.
    Fascinatingly cultivated and intelligent twits.
    Drive ordinary Brits to distraction yet still rule the country and forever will.

  7. you missed the key sentence from that blurb:

    Something something technocratic hubris vs. complexity of the real world.

    i find that incredibly ironic from arguably the center of the “rationalist” movement, which can be pithily summarized as “technocratic hubris.”

  8. The article makes another interesting point further down the page:

    But the other major factor seems to be density. NYC is by far the densest city in America, almost twice as dense as second-placer San Francisco. Density forces people together and makes infections spread more easily.

    Florida, on the other hand, is so spread out that you can’t go anywhere on foot. Could that be a factor in the spread of the disease? Spain has densely populated cities, so does Italy, and London, where Boris Johnson and Prince Charles were infected, is also very densely populated and most people use public transportation to go to work.

    In New York everyone is using the subway and other forms of public transportation, whereas in Florida public transportation other than aircraft is almost unknown.

    • Replies: @anon
    But Comrade Mason, Boris did what the experts recommended. You remember the experts don't you?

    Florida, on the other hand, is so spread out that you can’t go anywhere on foot.

    Except on Miami Beach. Or around Tampa Bay. Or Daytona beach. Or Jax. Etc.

    Are you an expert on pandemics? Perhaps you should just leave this to the experts, like the ones who advised the British government?

    You tend to come across as rather a pompous twit, a version of Colonel Blimp. Might want to dial that back, old boy.

    Be seeing you!
    , @Thea
    Unless Florida has changed since I lived there, Florida cities all have widespread public transportation and lots of people who are too poor for car ownership to use it.
    , @keypusher
    But the other major factor seems to be density. NYC is by far the densest city in America, almost twice as dense as second-placer San Francisco. Density forces people together and makes infections spread more easily.

    Tokyo is dense. Singapore is dense. Seoul is dense. Wuhan, Shanghai, Beijing etc. are dense. Somehow they all managed to deal with this.
  9. @AnotherDad

    But other pandemics don’t require ventilators nearly as often as coronavirus does.
     

    I can certainly believe the "not as much".

    But isn't the way the flu often kills people is through pneumonia, with the cases that don't resolve easily often requiring some sort of breathing support?

    One would think there would definitely be a coefficient(s) in the model for expected rates of required breathing support of various types. You'd just plug in what you were seeing for this new Chinese coronavirus and ... "hey, this doesn't look good!"


    Maybe it's better in the UK, but my rough on what i've seen from the US public health authorities is no serious planning ever took place. (We were out of masks--masks!--on day one.) I'm sure there's "a plan", that fills a shelf a binders. But mostly we have a bunch of well paid, well pensioned time serving yutzes who would rather lecture us that quarantines don't work and we need to be on guard against racism.

    On march 7th, I returned home, sharing a desk in the dining car with a woman in her late thirties who explained to me that supervising borders was impossible in our globalized times. When I tried to explain my pre-Schengen experiences to her – at one point during my studies I had to cross that border several times a day – I was told that not understanding the non-feasibility of border controls was a generational thing.

    Monday the week after that, all the Rhine crossings between Elsaß and Baden were closed – for the first time in two generations. And I mean closed as in closed, not the you-might-need-to-show-your-papers thing I grew up with which they call “closed borders” these days.

    Quite efficiently, too. While they are replaying Bergamo west of the Rhine, it is still calm on the eastern side.

    • LOL: Smithsonian_6
    • Replies: @Andy
    Young people are in for a surprise on how fragile our globalized society is (and things they take for granted, like global travel). A virus that is not THAT deadly (less than 30,000 dead so far in a world of 7 billion people) and everything is turned upside down, with a third of the planet under house arrest
  10. @AnotherDad

    But other pandemics don’t require ventilators nearly as often as coronavirus does.
     

    I can certainly believe the "not as much".

    But isn't the way the flu often kills people is through pneumonia, with the cases that don't resolve easily often requiring some sort of breathing support?

    One would think there would definitely be a coefficient(s) in the model for expected rates of required breathing support of various types. You'd just plug in what you were seeing for this new Chinese coronavirus and ... "hey, this doesn't look good!"


    Maybe it's better in the UK, but my rough on what i've seen from the US public health authorities is no serious planning ever took place. (We were out of masks--masks!--on day one.) I'm sure there's "a plan", that fills a shelf a binders. But mostly we have a bunch of well paid, well pensioned time serving yutzes who would rather lecture us that quarantines don't work and we need to be on guard against racism.

    Eventually a great thinning will come, be it plague, war, famine, whatever. At that time, a societal resistance to chaos, which we appear to have lost, will be of great value. In that sense the Boris Plan has merit. Play the game, let the chips fall where they may, and learn from your mistakes. A nanny culture may seem wise now, but not so tomorrow.

    • Replies: @gcochran
    You first.
    , @HA
    "At that time, a societal resistance to chaos, which we appear to have lost, will be of great value."

    The people who were willing to put on gas masks and live in tunnels like rats were precisely the ones that made it through the London blitz and the firebombing of Dresden. Whereas the brave fools who ignored the sirens and went about their daily routine because, hey, death is preferable to strapping on protection and cowering in a shelter, were far more likely to be given their preferred option.

    Yeah, people in the past were "resistant to chaos" about losing thousands to plagues and diseases. But they were sanguine about economic downturns, too. You think that those who endured the bomb shelters and the years of rationing and hardship that followed would look kindly on those who are now wetting their breeches over their 401k's? Be honest enough to admit that you're sweating bullets too, hypocrite -- it's just over a matter that YOU regard as being most important. You're not as resistant to chaos as you fancy yourself to be.

    This isn't the last time China unleashes some wet-market biological freak show on the planet. And the next time, maybe it WILL be bio-terrorism that is to blame. But if it goes down like that, then before the thing is released, whoever wants to ensure that the virus will take out as many as possible will first ensure that a horde of naysayers are loudly spouting off about how this is gonna be no big deal, and whatever comes, we can just ride it out and live the way we always have, so no masks or quarantines for me, no way. That won't be difficult, because apparently, a number of useful idiots are willing to do that for free. So, thanks so much for that.

  11. Thus, just as I said in the earlier thread, it’s all about sparing the healthcare system from the odious burden of doing its own job. “What? We (hypothetically) may not have enough ventilators? Quick, shut down the country!” I mean, far be it from them to do anything crass like triage respiratory care, make broader use of other supportive therapies, jury-rig some makeshift ventilators, and rush more into production.

    No, it’s obvious now that this whole stupid overreaction was all about circling the wagons around the precious healthcare system and involuntarily conscripting the citizenry to fight it its battles for it, because the agencies that we spend hundreds of billions of dollars on every year were caught absolutely flat-footed when put to a very minor test of their abilities by a slightly-worse-than-the-flu coronavirus.

    Now it seems like things are not even that bad and we aren’t actually running out of ventilators. Our ruling class collectively wet their pants, spent two trillion dollars, disrupted millions of lives, and plunged us into the final bread and circuses phase of our tottering imperium, all because their bloated healthcare apparatus could not handle a miniscule public health emergency and they were afraid of looking like idiots before their Boomer electorate. What a pitiful legacy to leave behind.

    • Replies: @Redneck farmer
    You still don't get it, ID. If they can avoid Corona-Chan, our elites will live forever. 120 is the new 40!
    , @Achmed E. Newman

    Our ruling class collectively wet their pants, spent two trillion dollars, disrupted millions of lives, and plunged us into the final bread and circuses phase of our tottering imperium, ...
     
    You nailed it right there. That's the main thing for them, having big bucks to dole out, hence enormous power. It's the Socialists 9/11.
    , @Hypnotoad666
    Politically, "just do something" always wins in a crisis. If everything is ok in the end, they can say "our efforts avoided catastrophe." If there is a catastrophe anyway, they can say "think how much worse it would have been without our efforts."

    Doing nothing, however, is always a political loser. No matter how smart it might be, it appears you don't care. Politics is all about showing you care.

    , @Buzz Mohawk
    Point well taken, however:

    ... triage respiratory care, make broader use of other supportive therapies, jury-rig some makeshift ventilators, and rush more into production.
     
    These things are actually happening right now across our country. That is how America is supposed to work. (Well, the triaging of respiratory care hasn't been necessary yet, and that is one of the things we are trying to avoid. Otherwise, it could be YOUR grandmother -- or YOU -- who is denied.)

    Have you ever managed a group of employees in a business environment in which demand varied widely? I did years ago, about a dozen people. Much of the time we were paying all those wages for not much activity. Then once in a while things would get busy and I didn't have enough people. This is a math problem that is both statistical and one of finding the optimum. Optimization is a crucial part of our modern world, and if you don't like it, you can go out and live in the woods without it.

    I was tempted to "Agree" with your comment until I realized that there is no way for "the healthcare system" to be prepared at all times for something that rarely if ever happens. If you want that, then you must be willing to pay for it the way you pay for a military that is prepared to fight a two front war and maintain an empire, which half your federal taxes go for.

    , @Pericles
    The modern principles of government: cover you ass and keep stacking cash.
    , @Haruto Rat

    No, it’s obvious now that this whole stupid overreaction was all about circling the wagons around the precious healthcare system and involuntarily conscripting the citizenry to fight it its battles for it (...)
     
    They didn't even care to hide this intent.

    Drink!
    https://static.independent.co.uk/s3fs-public/thumbnails/image/2020/03/24/01/boris-johnson-0.jpg
    , @obwandiyag
    Wrong and wrong. And just sort of confused and intractable. The virus is real and very nasty. If you don't know of someone within 2 degrees of separation from you dying of it, don't worry, you will. I do. This is not being done to save "our precious healthcare system." What does that even mean?

    If you mean they're trying to save Obamacare instead of getting socialized medicine like civilized people have, then I'm with you. They're always trying to do that.

    But I suspect that's not what you mean. Surely you don't mean they caused the virus in order to save Obamacare. Or that saving Obamacare is the primary reason for the current lockdowns. Really?

    "Looking like idiots in front of their Boomer electorate"? What does that mean. All I can get out of it is that you hate old people, just like "the youth" of 1968 did.

    So go out and mingle, then. You're a child. So you're safe. No people your age dying. Except for the ones who are.

    Incidentally. Hating old people is identity politics, one of the best kinds. Now there is a PTB plot for ya. And you're doing their bidding in spades. Heating up the inter-demographic hatred. Good work. They'd give you a medal if it wouldn't give the game away.

    , @Buffalo Joe
    ID, yours may be the best general description of this whole situation. Suddenly, Andrew Cuomo is saying, at his Thursday press conference, that a total shutdown may not have been the best strategy, as NY's economy crashes around him. He called for a "war footing" in this battle, perhaps picturing himself as a new FDR. Maybe the plan will be to restart the economy with WPA projects.
    , @obwandiyag
    Here's a comment from a couple of War Babies on your "generation" fixation. Them war babies knew a thing or two.

    https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=XRdcmZUI-jU
  12. @Ron Unz

    You bought the world’s most sophisticated hammer, so everything looks like a nail, even when it turns out to be nitroglycerin.
     
    Ha, ha, that's a pretty good metaphor...

    But what's odd is that I'd been reading about the whole ventilator/ICU issue for weeks on comment-threads before the Brilliant British Brains around Boris Johnson announced their plans to solve the Coronavirus problem by killing maybe a million or two million of their own citizens.

    Isn't Johnson just some sort of Neocon? It wouldn't surprise me if the people around him are a bunch of dimwits...

    that’s a pretty good metaphor

    Replace ‘hammer’ with ‘math’. —>

  13. @AnotherDad

    But other pandemics don’t require ventilators nearly as often as coronavirus does.
     

    I can certainly believe the "not as much".

    But isn't the way the flu often kills people is through pneumonia, with the cases that don't resolve easily often requiring some sort of breathing support?

    One would think there would definitely be a coefficient(s) in the model for expected rates of required breathing support of various types. You'd just plug in what you were seeing for this new Chinese coronavirus and ... "hey, this doesn't look good!"


    Maybe it's better in the UK, but my rough on what i've seen from the US public health authorities is no serious planning ever took place. (We were out of masks--masks!--on day one.) I'm sure there's "a plan", that fills a shelf a binders. But mostly we have a bunch of well paid, well pensioned time serving yutzes who would rather lecture us that quarantines don't work and we need to be on guard against racism.

    “…we have a bunch of well paid, well pensioned time serving yutzes who would rather lecture us that quarantines don’t work and we need to be on guard against racism.”

    I wonder if a field that really needs the best people only once every decade or so can even attract the people it needs. Also, Public Health school graduates are overwhelmingly female now, so not just racism.

    I wonder if we’ll ever find out the names of the team that botched the Covid-19 test kit rollout. Probably not, but it’s possible that it wouldn’t have mattered.

    By mid-January, it’s probable that Covid had already been seeded in dozens of US cities by visitors from all over the world. That’s when the two key differences between Covid and the flu really kicked in. Infected people shed live virus for days before they had symptoms, and a far higher percentage of sick people need hospitalization.

    • Replies: @Che Blutarsky

    I wonder if a field that really needs the best people only once every decade or so can even attract the people it needs.
     
    When the cream of the quantitative sciences are going into the parasitical field of finance, in order to optimize "financial engineering" mechanisms that squeeze money out of the productive sector and add no real value, your society is nearing its end stage.
    , @anon

    Covid had already been seeded in dozens of US cities by visitors from all over the world.
     
    This virus originated in china due to their shitty culinary habits. Western countries need to stop air travel from china full-stop.
    All chinese in Western countries to be repatriated back to their wonderful homeland.
    Future problems fixed.
    , @Anon
    There’s a reason CDC is headquartered in Atlanta. It’s to employ hordes of idiot lazy surly black women.
    , @Mr. Anon

    Infected people shed live virus for days before they had symptoms, and a far higher percentage of sick people need hospitalization.
     
    Is it the case that a far higher percentage of sick people need hospitalization, or that they go to the hospital for something they ordinarily would have ridden out at home because they've been told they might die? I don't know. However we don't know how many people are really dying OF coronavirus, all we're being told is how many people are dying WITH coronavirus.
  14. Oh jeez, and I thought this scene from “Yes, Minister” was a parody…

    • Replies: @education realist
    Appropos of nothing much, the last of the three regular stars just died two months ago--of pneumonia.
  15. @AnotherDad

    But other pandemics don’t require ventilators nearly as often as coronavirus does.
     

    I can certainly believe the "not as much".

    But isn't the way the flu often kills people is through pneumonia, with the cases that don't resolve easily often requiring some sort of breathing support?

    One would think there would definitely be a coefficient(s) in the model for expected rates of required breathing support of various types. You'd just plug in what you were seeing for this new Chinese coronavirus and ... "hey, this doesn't look good!"


    Maybe it's better in the UK, but my rough on what i've seen from the US public health authorities is no serious planning ever took place. (We were out of masks--masks!--on day one.) I'm sure there's "a plan", that fills a shelf a binders. But mostly we have a bunch of well paid, well pensioned time serving yutzes who would rather lecture us that quarantines don't work and we need to be on guard against racism.

    Maybe it’s better in the UK, but my rough on what i’ve seen from the US public health authorities is no serious planning ever took place. (We were out of masks–masks!–on day one.) I’m sure there’s “a plan”, that fills a shelf a binders.

    It seems that many countries adopted the “British Plan” as their default strategy.

    I went to find one scene of “Yes, Minister” for a post on this thread and found another great one! Great show!

    • Agree: PiltdownMan
  16. Did we establish that something went “wrong” with the original UK plan?

    Deaths simply aren’t piling up the way the hysterical people predicted. Is it really distinguishable from regular flu season? Clearly, not as bad as the 1968 Hong Kong flu.

    Are spaz-geek nerds just power tripping over their ability to shut the world down?

    • Agree: George, UK
    • Replies: @Redneck farmer
    We have social media now. And perhaps worse yet, the ability to keep people alive longer.
    , @George
    What's left of the Free world:

    Belarus President Alexander Lukashenko Refusing to Let Sports Stop

    Belarus is the only European country that is still playing soccer

    https://www.insidehook.com/daily_brief/sports/alexander-lukashenko-wont-let-sports-stop-belarus

    Belarus, the land of the free, home of the brave.

    Belarus could embarrass the lockdown nations.
    , @Paleo Liberal
    I had the Hong Kong flu back in 1969. I can’t remember the exact month.

    True, 1 million died, including 100,000 in the US.

    But 500 million of us survived with few if any lasting effects.

    That was a death rate of about 0.2% at a time when medicine wasn’t as advanced as it is now. Bad for the flu, but far less deadly and a little less communicable than Coronavirus.

    The HK flu was bad because it was a new type of flu for which we had no natural immunity. The R0 was low the first wave, which was during the kids’ Christmas break. Almost as high as for Coronavirus for the second wave of HK flu.

    Also, Coronavirus appears to cause damage in the hearts and lungs of some survivors.

    We don’t know the death rate of Coronavirus, mostly because of lack of testing. Reports from both Wuhan and Italy suggest the death rate was vastly higher than reported, and that many cases were never discovered, affecting both the numerator and the denominator. But it appears to be at least an order of magnitude more deadly than the HK flu.
    , @jim jones
    Any female doctor in the NHS will be suffering from Boris Derangement Syndrome and will post hysterical attacks saying that whatever he did was wrong
    , @The Wild Geese Howard

    Deaths simply aren’t piling up the way the hysterical people predicted.
     
    As I keep saying - show me bodies stacked like cordwood and smoldering corpse pyramids during Cuomo's pressers and the 5 o'clock news or stop the mass hysteria.
  17. @AnotherDad

    But other pandemics don’t require ventilators nearly as often as coronavirus does.
     

    I can certainly believe the "not as much".

    But isn't the way the flu often kills people is through pneumonia, with the cases that don't resolve easily often requiring some sort of breathing support?

    One would think there would definitely be a coefficient(s) in the model for expected rates of required breathing support of various types. You'd just plug in what you were seeing for this new Chinese coronavirus and ... "hey, this doesn't look good!"


    Maybe it's better in the UK, but my rough on what i've seen from the US public health authorities is no serious planning ever took place. (We were out of masks--masks!--on day one.) I'm sure there's "a plan", that fills a shelf a binders. But mostly we have a bunch of well paid, well pensioned time serving yutzes who would rather lecture us that quarantines don't work and we need to be on guard against racism.

    But isn’t the way the flu often kills people is through pneumonia, with the cases that don’t resolve easily often requiring some sort of breathing support?

    Except for H5N1 (avian influenza, the “bird flu” they always worry about leading to an eventual epidemic), flu tends to target the upper respiratory tract. SARS-CoV-2, which is causing this outbreak, targets alveolar cells deep in the lungs.

    https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Influenza#Pathophysiology
    https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Coronavirus_disease_2019#Cause

    • Replies: @AnotherDad
    Thomas, i get that.

    My point is that "breathing support" isn't some kind of brand new thing to be required. So there should be coefficients in the model for "breathing support" of various types. Then you plug in the appropriate coefficients--much greater than the flu--for Covid-19 and your model should immediately tell you it's a problem. This stuff is basic.

    "The model" isn't one thing. If it's going to be any good at all it has to have a bunch of parameters you set based on what the disease--or multiple diseases!--you're dealing with.
  18. Nitroglycerin…I guess that makes the seasonal flu a nuke…

  19. Reading the AMA the OP references it’s clear that the ER doc there is a big fan of the shelter-in-place, but like so many others he compares it to an alternative of doing nothing. And he puts the point of running out of ICU capacity at two weeks out (from 4 days ago) AND of no extra capacity is brought online.
    What can one say but “we’ll see”.

    One comment of interest on ICU use in the UK:

    No, we are not quite there yet.

    Not everyone is a good fit for ICU. Even outside of COVID, if you are of a certain frailty and you have certain underlying conditions, your chances of making it off a ventilator when you are deathly sick is close to 0%.

    It depends on where you are. In for profit systems, ventilators make a lot of money, and you may see a different critical care population. In the UK we see it as morally wrong to put patients through critical care, all the complications, the procedures, the delirium and to have patients struggling and suffering, when the chance of death at the end is nearly 100%. This type of patient is almost always much, much older and it is always a decision made with patient and family where possible.

    Therefore the population for COVID on critical care is ‘self-selecting’.

    Is it compassion or is it “death panels”?

    What does that say about the situation in Italy? is their usage more UK or US?

    From a US pov i guess it doesn’t matter since, whether for profit or otherwise, “do everything you can” is the expectation of most US people… so our shortages (if they materialize) will be worse than the UK.

    • Replies: @Philip Owen
    In a paper from Wuhan, 31 out of 32 patients put on ventilators died in an environment with no shoratge of ventilators (ie even relatively healthy patients has them). Ventilators are a distraction.
    , @UK
    You can inflate, deflate and reinflate a plastic bag forever.
  20. UK had to perform a disastrous about-face

    But how does performing about-face resolve ventilator shortages? You can’t make 30,000 ventilators tomorrow; Even if one procures 30K ventilators by magic, where will the ICU’s to place them in come from? Where will the skilled nursing staff come from? PPEs for all of them? It has ClstrFck written all over it. Just like USA , which did not make any face, about or straight.

    • Replies: @botazefa
    Right you are. I retired from respiratory therapy 25 years ago and I can tell you ventilators are extremely labor intensive. If we are short 100k ventilators you can be sure we're short at least 5k respiratory techs. That's 20 vents per RT, which is about twice the peak load I was ever assigned.

    The vent shortage is not going to be solved; not really
    , @Glaivester
    It will resolve ventilator shortages by flattening the curve so that fewer people will need the ventilators at any one time.

    The herd immunity strategy was based on controlling infection rates so that the medical system would not be overwhelmed (and in controlling the demographics of infection so that the greatest number of people from the least vulnerable populations would be infected so that they could become immune to carrying the disease later). If the hospitalization rate is higher than predicted, infection rates must be kept lower.

    More to the point, if the disease is more dangerous to young people than previously thought, or if the death rate is high even with the maximum hospital intervention, the herd immunity strategy may not work well.

    Herd immunity is really designed for a disease where there are populations for whom the disease is not a big deal (quarantine everyone else, get them all infected now and they will be barriers to disease transmission in the future) or in which medical intervention is a big factor in survival (keep transmission rates to vulnerable populations to where there will be enough hospital beds, ventilators, etc. for everyone who needs one). Otherwise, it is no more effective than doing nothing.
    , @Inquiring Mind
    Our fine host Mr. Ron Unz is hyperventilating about the crisis, but I don't think we have a good statistical model to say with much certainty that what anybody did was so wrong, what we should be doing and whether even doing the recommended thing is making any difference.

    We thought we could contain this thing with contact tracing and isolation, but that dam has broken many weeks ago. It looks like this virus is not traceable and isolatable based on its pattern of infection.

    How do we know that this thing has spread like wildfire, the herd all has the virus, that this thing isn't going to run its course and the badly affected individuals, their families and close contact and society will just have to deal with whatever happens?

    I support the level of shutdown, the social distancing and the Stimulus Bill to ease the economic pain of the most badly impacted.

    What happens in 2 weeks when we see this thing isn't even slowing down? We need an antibody test to measure who already has had this, and we need to do scientific sampling in the style of election polls as soon as we get enough test kits. This is kinda, sorta what iSteve has been asking for?

    I will offer this statement with all of its intended irony. What I say about Boris Johnson and the British people is that in the end they do the right thing, that is, after trying every other thing.

  21. @Anon7
    “...we have a bunch of well paid, well pensioned time serving yutzes who would rather lecture us that quarantines don’t work and we need to be on guard against racism.”

    I wonder if a field that really needs the best people only once every decade or so can even attract the people it needs. Also, Public Health school graduates are overwhelmingly female now, so not just racism.

    I wonder if we’ll ever find out the names of the team that botched the Covid-19 test kit rollout. Probably not, but it’s possible that it wouldn’t have mattered.

    By mid-January, it’s probable that Covid had already been seeded in dozens of US cities by visitors from all over the world. That’s when the two key differences between Covid and the flu really kicked in. Infected people shed live virus for days before they had symptoms, and a far higher percentage of sick people need hospitalization.

    I wonder if a field that really needs the best people only once every decade or so can even attract the people it needs.

    When the cream of the quantitative sciences are going into the parasitical field of finance, in order to optimize “financial engineering” mechanisms that squeeze money out of the productive sector and add no real value, your society is nearing its end stage.

    • Agree: Cortes, Ron Unz, AnotherDad
    • Replies: @Daniel Williams
    That is a good point. Coastal America could be brain-draining the flyover states just like immigration restrictionists say that U.S. immigration policy is brain-draining the third world by offering preferential status to highly educated applicants.

    That’s a fascinating thought: a guy who would have made a great doctor in his hometown in West Virginia or Nebraska instead becomes a Master of the Universe in NYC or Connecticut.

    I wonder how often that actually happens? From what I read here, it seems like a lot of those guys are overlooked by the elite college admissions machine. But still...
    , @obwandiyag
    But capitalism is good. Don't you read?

    Just look how it's handling the current emergency.
  22. Anonymous[835] • Disclaimer says:

    UK u-turn story sounds less than 100% truthful.

    The struggle against the witch corona really is a war in the sense that truth went on the chopping block immediately.

    It’s been weeks of lies distortions misrepresentations. Data is the devil’s playpen: yesterday there was a push to construct a narrative that South Korea was suddenly losing control of the virus because their “death doubling rate” suddenly jumped or some such bullshit.

    South Korea pop 50 mil
    Total cases 10000
    Total deaths 150

    That’s right less than 150 deaths in a country of 50 mil and PROJECT FEAR decided to toss a narrative into the mix that the war was suddenly in doubt. It’s an obvious demoralization campaign.

    I saw another attempt today this time Japan headline deliberately constructed to make the war against corona seem like a failure. The stats from Japan are much more absurd than Korea not worth listing the numbers.

    This shit is planted in the media by intel agencies obviously…

    • Agree: Hippopotamusdrome
    • Replies: @anonguy

    South Korea pop 50 mil
    Total cases 10000
    Total deaths 150
     
    You understand that this is a success story of the the extreme measures South Korea took to be at this juncture. It wouldn't be that way now otherwise, it isn't like they let it run its course and this is the outcome.

    These figures are a call to action, not justification for inaction.
  23. Sweden is actually the more interesting case for follow. The British are now doing what everyone is doing. Sweden has not locked down.

    • Replies: @LondonBob
    Actually we aren't as locked down as other countries, people are still encouraged to go to work if they can't work from home. The reality is there hasn't been reversal it was always about managing the infection and still is. No matter how much lefty twitter insists otherwise. As we know Neil Ferguson came up with the most alarmest figures he could, then got called to for it and then backtracked.

    I had some lefties claiming Sweden had also backtracked, actually all they had done was introduce some restrictions on gatherings of more than fifty, again not understanding that herd immunity does involves certain restrictions.

  24. anon[231] • Disclaimer says:
    @Jonathan Mason
    The article makes another interesting point further down the page:

    But the other major factor seems to be density. NYC is by far the densest city in America, almost twice as dense as second-placer San Francisco. Density forces people together and makes infections spread more easily.

    Florida, on the other hand, is so spread out that you can't go anywhere on foot. Could that be a factor in the spread of the disease? Spain has densely populated cities, so does Italy, and London, where Boris Johnson and Prince Charles were infected, is also very densely populated and most people use public transportation to go to work.

    In New York everyone is using the subway and other forms of public transportation, whereas in Florida public transportation other than aircraft is almost unknown.

    But Comrade Mason, Boris did what the experts recommended. You remember the experts don’t you?

    Florida, on the other hand, is so spread out that you can’t go anywhere on foot.

    Except on Miami Beach. Or around Tampa Bay. Or Daytona beach. Or Jax. Etc.

    Are you an expert on pandemics? Perhaps you should just leave this to the experts, like the ones who advised the British government?

    You tend to come across as rather a pompous twit, a version of Colonel Blimp. Might want to dial that back, old boy.

    Be seeing you!

    • Replies: @Jonathan Mason

    Florida, on the other hand, is so spread out that you can’t go anywhere on foot.

    Except on Miami Beach. Or around Tampa Bay. Or Daytona beach. Or Jax. Etc.
     

    1. Obviously there are some tourist areas like beaches and Disney World, or county fairs, fleas markets, or sports stadiums, or school and college campuses, or shopping malls, where lots of pedestrians are close together, however, as a whole, the layout of towns and cities in Florida in no way resembles New York, Boston, London, Amsterdam, Madrid, or Barcelona and, most importantly of all, the vast majority of Floridians use personal transport, not mass transit systems, so they arrive at their destination in a bubble.

    2. While it is theoretically possible for viruses to be spread through the air at beaches if people are close together, beaches are unlikely to be major sources of spread compared to enclosed spaces. It is also likely that the virus does not live long if it falls on sand, which can be extremely hot and will dry out the virus which likes a humid environment. Maximum daily temperatures in Florida are running at around 95 degrees, but the sand is much hotter. Also, the people who are very old and have multiple comorbidities are less likely to be found on beaches.

    3. Jacksonville (Jax) is not at all a pedestrian city. The only people you see on foot in the city center are the Salvation Army hostel residents. Nor is Tampa. Everything in the Tampa Bay area radiates from multi-lane highways that connect with I-75, I-275, I-4, and the East West Expressway.

    4. I am not an expert on pandemics, but I do have experience in reviewing, updating, and writing infection control policies and procedures for hospital and nursing home use, and have a couple of the standard textbooks on infection control in my home, so my knowledge is probably as good as that of most people who post here, or perhaps better in some cases.

  25. @Intelligent Dasein
    Thus, just as I said in the earlier thread, it's all about sparing the healthcare system from the odious burden of doing its own job. "What? We (hypothetically) may not have enough ventilators? Quick, shut down the country!" I mean, far be it from them to do anything crass like triage respiratory care, make broader use of other supportive therapies, jury-rig some makeshift ventilators, and rush more into production.

    No, it's obvious now that this whole stupid overreaction was all about circling the wagons around the precious healthcare system and involuntarily conscripting the citizenry to fight it its battles for it, because the agencies that we spend hundreds of billions of dollars on every year were caught absolutely flat-footed when put to a very minor test of their abilities by a slightly-worse-than-the-flu coronavirus.

    Now it seems like things are not even that bad and we aren't actually running out of ventilators. Our ruling class collectively wet their pants, spent two trillion dollars, disrupted millions of lives, and plunged us into the final bread and circuses phase of our tottering imperium, all because their bloated healthcare apparatus could not handle a miniscule public health emergency and they were afraid of looking like idiots before their Boomer electorate. What a pitiful legacy to leave behind.

    You still don’t get it, ID. If they can avoid Corona-Chan, our elites will live forever. 120 is the new 40!

  26. Coronavirus cure: French researchers completed new additional study on 80 patients, results show a combination of Hydroxychloroquine and Azithromycin to be effective in treating COVID-19

    In 80 in-patients receiving a combination of hydroxychloroquine and azithromycin, the team found a clinical improvement in all but one 86 year-old patient who died, and one 74-year old patient still in intensive care unit. The team also found that, by administering hydroxychloroquine combined with azithromycin, they were able to observe an improvement in all cases, except in one patient who arrived with an advanced form, who was over the age of 86, and in whom the evolution was irreversible, according to a new paper published today in IHU Méditerranée Infection.

    Help is on the way.

    https://techstartups.com/2020/03/27/coronavirus-cure-new-results-french-study-shows-combination-hydroxychloroquine-plaquenil-azithromycin-successfully-treated-80-coronavirus-patients-significant-dr/

    • Replies: @Corn
    “French researchers completed new additional study on 80 patients, results show a combination of Hydroxychloroquine and Azithromycin to be effective in treating COVID-19”

    Good news. Unfortunately many Democratic politicians are curiously uninterested.
    , @Daniel Williams
    Wait for a deluge of articles about aquarium cleaner (and lupus patients rotting on the vine) to push that article far, far down the search engine results.
    , @anon
    The apparent lack of enthusiasm for this treatment is due to a fear that the results will lead to hoarding and over use. They want to initially limit its use to the moderately-severely ill who have tested positive.

    A front line NY doctor on a Fox/Tucker Carlson video last night said he was taking plaquenil.

    We have millions of doses of the stuff, but not hundreds of millions. You also don't want people taking it "just in case".
  27. @RichardTaylor
    Did we establish that something went "wrong" with the original UK plan?

    Deaths simply aren't piling up the way the hysterical people predicted. Is it really distinguishable from regular flu season? Clearly, not as bad as the 1968 Hong Kong flu.

    Are spaz-geek nerds just power tripping over their ability to shut the world down?

    We have social media now. And perhaps worse yet, the ability to keep people alive longer.

    • Replies: @The Wild Geese Howard

    And perhaps worse yet, the ability to keep people alive longer.
     
    And make record profits along the way!

    Thanks Big Pharma and Big Insurance!
  28. @Achmed E. Newman
    That's often the problem with mathematical models. You may have all the physics and math down right and have a good handle on the initial conditions, boundary conditions, and constraints. If you leave out one unforeseen physical process (or in this case logistical), the whole thing is garbage. This is why I've said for 5 years or more "There is no working mathematical model of the whole Earth's climate, dammit!'

    R0 is a function of the transmission properties of the virus, which may or may not change with time as mutations happen. It is also a function of human behavior, which changes over time in a response to the progression of disease – hygiene changes, people wear masks, people keep their distance, large events are shut down, travel is restricted. It is also a function of the population density (with spread correlating more with the square of the population density than the population density). It is also a function of cultural behaviors (greeting customs) and many other things. It might also change with respect to environmental conditions.

    The death rate depends on hospitalization capacity and many facets of demographics – age, possibly ethnicity, past tobacco/alcohol/drug use, past exposure to industrial chemicals/air pollution, obesity, auto-immune disorders, etc.

    This is just to say that modelling can tell you many interesting things about a dynamic system, but it is based on many simplifying assumptions, sometimes without much data to establish the parameters, and often with approximations to take out non-linearity so that it can be solved easier. There is a limit to what models can tell you.

    Which leads to our current situation. If the country closed down two weeks ago, when can it open back up? Certainly right now we are in a worse position than then, with the number of cases still growing rapidly, with the supply chains of vital drugs and equipment still not secure. The ability to rapidly test tens of millions of people every week is quite a ways off. Any lightening of the restrictions at this point will be a signal that the original decision to take all of the measures that were taken were mistaken.

    So, what if only 5% of the population gets it this round, it fades away in the summer months, and reappears in the fall? The “herd immunity” will be minimal, except maybe in places like NYC. Do we expect to have the ability to do mass testing by then? We’ll certainly be in better shape there, but will it still be sufficient? Will we have to shut everything down again? What would be the argument against it?

    • Replies: @Paleo Liberal
    For some of the worst flu outbreaks, such as the Spanish Flu and the Hong Kong Flu, the second wave was much worse than the first wave.

    For example, the first wave of HK Flu was during XMas vacation when people were staying home. The second wave was when people were working and kids were in school.
    , @anonguy
    There isn't any evidence yet that recovery from the virus confers immunity to reinfection.

    Obviously, because it hasn't been around long enough.

    There is evidence beginning to emerge, not conclusive by any means, but scraps, that suggest that immunity to reinfection is not a given.

    So before talking about Herd Immunity, one should be relatively certain that individual immunity occurs in the first place.

    And, as a reminder because this is a big deal, there is no evidence for this yet.

    , @Achmed E. Newman
    I don't disagree at all with what you wrote there, Mr. Blutarsky, but I'm not sure you understand what I wrote. See, you can come up with good numbers for "Ro", the transmission rate, population numbers, demographics, all kinds of things, and use math that well represents the whole epidemic process. However, if you miss one other process, as "oh, the amount of ventilators is finite" and lots of others I'm sure*, the model is worthless.

    Every single actual piece of reality has got to be in the model for it to have a chance of representing reality. Otherwise it may not come close to approximating anything, barring just luck or after-the-fact fudge factors.

    .

    * Those would be, the susceptibility of different races (not mentioned much lately, but still likely some factor), the amount of travel in an out of China that previously occurred, and more that, notice I don't know either.
  29. “What Went Wrong with the British Plan”

    Herd immunity lost to herd instinct…

    • Agree: Haruto Rat
  30. @anonguy
    Herd immunity, without cure or vaccine, is unironically natural selection with a different name.

    It was a shockingly amoral proposition, that it could even be discussed is evidence much far soulless, sociopathic capitalism has become the cultural norm.

    > amoral proposition

    The universe _is_ amoral. Unless you less than 16 years old, you better get used to it.

    > capitalism

    What has that to do with anything?

    In fact, it sounds quite socialist to me.

    It’s also an acceptable plan … under certain circumstances.

    • Replies: @Captain Tripps

    In fact, it sounds quite socialist to me.
     
    https://youtu.be/LU4fT2P104k?t=228
    , @LMD
    Great pithy response.
    , @Verymuchalive
    Excellent reply. A great deal of research will no doubt be put into the study of the spread of coronavirus. For example, why it is so virulent in Spain, but not in Portugal. Scientific research, like the Universe, is amoral.
  31. Neither has Holland.

    • Replies: @LondonBob
    The Dutch actually closed their schools, sports clubs, cafes, coffee shops and restaurants a week before the Britain. The left, as ever, are dealing in absolutes rather understanding that it is case of different phases and stages of measures.
    , @Andy
    The corona is growing quite fast in the Netherlands (more than 10% in cases each day), I think they would be backtracking very soon
  32. Anonymous[379] • Disclaimer says:
    @Achmed E. Newman
    That's often the problem with mathematical models. You may have all the physics and math down right and have a good handle on the initial conditions, boundary conditions, and constraints. If you leave out one unforeseen physical process (or in this case logistical), the whole thing is garbage. This is why I've said for 5 years or more "There is no working mathematical model of the whole Earth's climate, dammit!'

    As I said earlier, simulations (especially design simulations) aren’t reality and are in no way a forward looking time machine. They merely show unexpected consequences of the assumptions built into the model. (I should add that predictive simulations are usually very elaborate curve fitting. Unless they are simulating some physical property (weather, say) they work moderately well until they fail, usually completely and suddenly. Quants beware.)

    The Imperial College was apparently done competently, and still left out an important variable. Maybe the next generation models will be better. Or, maybe, they will be used solely to influence policy, in which case they won’t improve at all.

    In the meantime, this failure is one more reason to distrust governmental (and and political and academic)competence. One more weakening of legitimacy.

  33. If you want a good laugh, drive by any local hospital. They’re dead. I just drove by several (on the edge of a big city). Ghost towns. I saw one lonely guy standing at the entrance to an ER with his gear on to sanitize newcomers I guess. Please go visit them. They’re so lonely.

    (I don’t live in NYC which supposedly has 50 million corpses stacked up)

    • Agree: Je Suis Omar Mateen
  34. @22pp22
    Sweden is actually the more interesting case for follow. The British are now doing what everyone is doing. Sweden has not locked down.

    Actually we aren’t as locked down as other countries, people are still encouraged to go to work if they can’t work from home. The reality is there hasn’t been reversal it was always about managing the infection and still is. No matter how much lefty twitter insists otherwise. As we know Neil Ferguson came up with the most alarmest figures he could, then got called to for it and then backtracked.

    I had some lefties claiming Sweden had also backtracked, actually all they had done was introduce some restrictions on gatherings of more than fifty, again not understanding that herd immunity does involves certain restrictions.

    • Replies: @John Burns, Gettysburg Partisan
    I appreciate your comments here, Bob. You've been providing good antidotes to what the Belarussian strong man correctly calls "mass psychosis."

    Also, as a red-blooded American, your name always reminds me of "English Bob" from the movie Unforgiven. I appreciate that. I wish I could buy you a drink on Independence Day.
  35. @Ron Unz

    You bought the world’s most sophisticated hammer, so everything looks like a nail, even when it turns out to be nitroglycerin.
     
    Ha, ha, that's a pretty good metaphor...

    But what's odd is that I'd been reading about the whole ventilator/ICU issue for weeks on comment-threads before the Brilliant British Brains around Boris Johnson announced their plans to solve the Coronavirus problem by killing maybe a million or two million of their own citizens.

    Isn't Johnson just some sort of Neocon? It wouldn't surprise me if the people around him are a bunch of dimwits...

    No he is not a neocon, apart from Neil Ferguson he has the smartest people in this area advising him, hence the measured approach.

  36. Somewhat OT:

    Made by these nice folks, in Kokomo, IN.

    $16.67/hour if you want to apply to join them and GM in making the ventilators.

    https://gm.selectrakonline.com/Apply/Portal/Index/21?positionReqId=653&positionId=583&facilityId=277

    • Replies: @George
    "$16.67/hour"

    Exceeding the $7.25 min wage, this is a true national emergency.
    , @Anon
    Via Marginal Revolution is this cheap retro ventilator design, slightly updated. It's built from off the shelf parts, based on a 1950s ventilator designed by an anesthesiologist based on equipment used in his profession. It was an international effort by academics from Italy, Princeton, UCLA, Canada, and France.

    The design seems to be a clever mechanical design, with a computer chip only present in one place to make it cheaper to make. Very Dr. Frankenstein, with bubbling flasks and a lot of noise, although the prototype is apparently packaged more compactly.

    https://www.discovermagazine.com/technology/how-to-build-a-mechanical-ventilator-for-a-few-hundred-euros

    https://arxiv.org/abs/2003.10405

    PDF: https://arxiv.org/pdf/2003.10405.pdf

    Videos at this Dropbox page:

    https://www.dropbox.com/sh/f0n24g0n9tn51ui/AACtWKULGCQLH22Or9oDulzza?dl=0

    , @Polynikes
    # hashtag - ventilators-so-white
    , @Bert
    Chinese published data indicate that anyone sick enough to need artificial ventilation does not survive after being put on a ventilator. So like most things the U.S. has done in response to the epidemic, this manufacturing effort makes no sense. If all persons over 65 years of age had been legally required to sequester themselves on March 1st (when I did), the worsening crisis would have been avoided. That would have allowed the Hammer and Dance approach to have been applied, and herd immunity would be developing with little distruption to economic life or to the functionality of hospitals.
    , @Captain Tripps
    Wow, hope that picture of the team doesn't get out. They'll shut that operation down right quick. Just a bunch of European-descended people with a smattering of Asian-descended people. Missing a whole A-list cornucopia of Identity-Diversity stars...
    , @Hippopotamusdrome


    (d) D IVERSITY R EPORT .—The Congressional
    COVID–19 Aid Oversight Panel, in conjunction with the
    SIGTARP, shall collect diversity data from any corpora-
    tion that receives Federal aid related to COVID–19, and
    issue a report that will be made publicly available no later
    than one year after the disbursement of funds. In addition
    to any other data, the report shall include the following:
    (1) E MPLOYEE DEMOGRAPHICS .—The gender,
    race, and ethnic identity (and to the extent possible,
    results disaggregated by ethnic group) of the cor-
    poration’s employees, as otherwise known or pro-
    vided voluntarily for the total number of employees

     

    , @anon
    This is the well publicized VOCIN portable device that Trump is feuding with GM over.

    https://www.venteclife.com/page/resources
    , @Charles Erwin Wilson Three
    Diversity at its best! As long as you have enough "others" you too can change the world (tm).

    What can we say? The Democrats and low-wage Republicans have not hollowed out the USA enough to crash innovation. But not for lack of trying!

    You Democrats must up your game! Your American sh1th0le project can still succeed! Equality is justice, honesty, kindness, longsuffering, forbearance, and virtue, all wrapped up into one! Equality uber alles!
    , @Sebastian Hawks
    So who is going to tool up all the machines, injection molds, etch to make all the individual parts from scrap? How many PCB makers are left in the US to build the fiberglass electronic boards? Do we have the chips to populate the boards? Where is that fan made? Sure we can build them, but in time? I also noticed Fox lucked out with that medical show with Bruce Greenwood running a plot about a superbug respiratory fungus getting into the ventilators in their hospital due to a doctor trying to cover his ass for doing an elaborate surgery he was told was too risky and turned the lady into a vegetable on a "vent farm" where she started the epidemic. A lot of the public got to see a bit of how these "ventilators" work.
  37. Bad news: multiple Wuhaners who recovered from CV test positive after prior negative tests.

    https://www.npr.org/sections/goatsandsoda/2020/03/27/822407626/mystery-in-wuhan-recovered-coronavirus-patients-test-negative-then-positive

    Article says it isn’t clear if they are contagious, but seems like they would be.

    Suggests a nightmare situation: asymptomatic people reinfect themselves (possibly in their own beds, toothbrushes, etc) after hospital release and spread it around more while not having symptoms.

    On the shutdown vs reopen question, if this is the case, the benefit of a shutdown no longer becomes eradication, but merely delay.

    • Agree: Smithsonian_6
    • Replies: @anonguy
    Possibility of reinfection, technically, all the cases so far it isn't clear if it is reinfection or reemergence from a reservoir within ones body, so technically people who ostensibly recovered test negative, then later test positive again.

    Genetic analysis, probably forthcoming, will proof whether reinfection or relapse/reemergence.

    One of the first cases in Japan, a female tour guide initially recovered, tested negative, released from hospital, fell ill again several weeks later, tested positive again, and was rehospitalized again the last time I updated on it.

    So don't assume immunity. And at least understand the possibility of Antibody Dependent Enhancement (ADE) upon reinfection. It is a very real phenomenon and there seemed to be the possibility of it in SARS, which is another coronavirus.

    It is ugly stuff.

    , @Lot
    More on reinfections in Wuhan:

    https://7news.com.au/lifestyle/healthmedicine/china-reports-deeply-disturbing-coronavirus-development-c-765460.amp

    Deeply disturbing is right, worst news since the NYC outbreak went exponential.

    Italy had 969 CV deaths Friday, a new daily record.
  38. @Neil Templeton
    Eventually a great thinning will come, be it plague, war, famine, whatever. At that time, a societal resistance to chaos, which we appear to have lost, will be of great value. In that sense the Boris Plan has merit. Play the game, let the chips fall where they may, and learn from your mistakes. A nanny culture may seem wise now, but not so tomorrow.

    You first.

  39. @Lot
    Bad news: multiple Wuhaners who recovered from CV test positive after prior negative tests.

    https://www.npr.org/sections/goatsandsoda/2020/03/27/822407626/mystery-in-wuhan-recovered-coronavirus-patients-test-negative-then-positive

    Article says it isn’t clear if they are contagious, but seems like they would be.

    Suggests a nightmare situation: asymptomatic people reinfect themselves (possibly in their own beds, toothbrushes, etc) after hospital release and spread it around more while not having symptoms.

    On the shutdown vs reopen question, if this is the case, the benefit of a shutdown no longer becomes eradication, but merely delay.

    Possibility of reinfection, technically, all the cases so far it isn’t clear if it is reinfection or reemergence from a reservoir within ones body, so technically people who ostensibly recovered test negative, then later test positive again.

    Genetic analysis, probably forthcoming, will proof whether reinfection or relapse/reemergence.

    One of the first cases in Japan, a female tour guide initially recovered, tested negative, released from hospital, fell ill again several weeks later, tested positive again, and was rehospitalized again the last time I updated on it.

    So don’t assume immunity. And at least understand the possibility of Antibody Dependent Enhancement (ADE) upon reinfection. It is a very real phenomenon and there seemed to be the possibility of it in SARS, which is another coronavirus.

    It is ugly stuff.

  40. @Lot
    Bad news: multiple Wuhaners who recovered from CV test positive after prior negative tests.

    https://www.npr.org/sections/goatsandsoda/2020/03/27/822407626/mystery-in-wuhan-recovered-coronavirus-patients-test-negative-then-positive

    Article says it isn’t clear if they are contagious, but seems like they would be.

    Suggests a nightmare situation: asymptomatic people reinfect themselves (possibly in their own beds, toothbrushes, etc) after hospital release and spread it around more while not having symptoms.

    On the shutdown vs reopen question, if this is the case, the benefit of a shutdown no longer becomes eradication, but merely delay.

    More on reinfections in Wuhan:

    https://7news.com.au/lifestyle/healthmedicine/china-reports-deeply-disturbing-coronavirus-development-c-765460.amp

    Deeply disturbing is right, worst news since the NYC outbreak went exponential.

    Italy had 969 CV deaths Friday, a new daily record.

  41. Scott Alexander sums up story behind the British Plan of a few weeks ago to build herd immunity

    Scot Robert Burns sums it up well in 1786:

  42. @PiltdownMan
    Somewhat OT:

    https://www.venteclife.com/assets/images/VOCSN-Explode---Engineered-Tough-Labels-01_1500.jpg

    Made by these nice folks, in Kokomo, IN.

    https://fs29.formsite.com/M6gPle/images/ventec_team.jpg

    https://www.venteclife.com/assets/images/accentimages/accent_gm_ventec_jobs2.jpg

    $16.67/hour if you want to apply to join them and GM in making the ventilators.

    https://gm.selectrakonline.com/Apply/Portal/Index/21?positionReqId=653&positionId=583&facilityId=277

    “$16.67/hour”

    Exceeding the $7.25 min wage, this is a true national emergency.

    • Replies: @Polynikes
    I hope they had a fun two days making ventilators. Now that all those employees can go make twice that on unemployment, I’m guessing not everyone shows up to work.
  43. Anonymous[283] • Disclaimer says:

    I just wish the political class could act just as speedily in ditching other bad policies – no doubt recommended by ‘experts’ – such as massive uncontrolled third world immigration.

    The only difference is it’s rather hard for a politician to argue against a morgue full of dead bodies.

  44. …in Florida public transportation other than aircraft is almost unknown.

    It’s 832 mi from Key West to Pensacola by road, and only 524 by air. It’s only ~$150 on Greyhound, but takes 28 hours, and at least two transfers.

    Not that these two burgs have much intercourse with each other.

  45. @RichardTaylor
    Did we establish that something went "wrong" with the original UK plan?

    Deaths simply aren't piling up the way the hysterical people predicted. Is it really distinguishable from regular flu season? Clearly, not as bad as the 1968 Hong Kong flu.

    Are spaz-geek nerds just power tripping over their ability to shut the world down?

    What’s left of the Free world:

    Belarus President Alexander Lukashenko Refusing to Let Sports Stop

    Belarus is the only European country that is still playing soccer

    https://www.insidehook.com/daily_brief/sports/alexander-lukashenko-wont-let-sports-stop-belarus

    Belarus, the land of the free, home of the brave.

    Belarus could embarrass the lockdown nations.

    • Replies: @Mom
    Can I get that on ESPN?
  46. Anonymous[133] • Disclaimer says:

    I’ve often wondered whether it was some type of exceptionally virulent and rapidly mutating nasty strain of virus – rather than a massive meteorite – which doomed the dinosaurs.
    After all, it wasn’t a sudden mass die off, but rather a slow lingering decline over millions of years.

    • Replies: @UK
    Viruses become less lethal over time. Natural selection makes them that way. Almost always, the less sick they make you the more likely you are to spread them, all other things being equal.
    , @Cortes
    T. Rex went first. They couldn’t handle the masks.
    , @Glt
    Did you miss the Chicxulub crater discovery?
  47. @Intelligent Dasein
    Thus, just as I said in the earlier thread, it's all about sparing the healthcare system from the odious burden of doing its own job. "What? We (hypothetically) may not have enough ventilators? Quick, shut down the country!" I mean, far be it from them to do anything crass like triage respiratory care, make broader use of other supportive therapies, jury-rig some makeshift ventilators, and rush more into production.

    No, it's obvious now that this whole stupid overreaction was all about circling the wagons around the precious healthcare system and involuntarily conscripting the citizenry to fight it its battles for it, because the agencies that we spend hundreds of billions of dollars on every year were caught absolutely flat-footed when put to a very minor test of their abilities by a slightly-worse-than-the-flu coronavirus.

    Now it seems like things are not even that bad and we aren't actually running out of ventilators. Our ruling class collectively wet their pants, spent two trillion dollars, disrupted millions of lives, and plunged us into the final bread and circuses phase of our tottering imperium, all because their bloated healthcare apparatus could not handle a miniscule public health emergency and they were afraid of looking like idiots before their Boomer electorate. What a pitiful legacy to leave behind.

    Our ruling class collectively wet their pants, spent two trillion dollars, disrupted millions of lives, and plunged us into the final bread and circuses phase of our tottering imperium, …

    You nailed it right there. That’s the main thing for them, having big bucks to dole out, hence enormous power. It’s the Socialists 9/11.

    • Replies: @Anon7
    I don't suppose anyone will mention that the biggest ClstrFck that negatively impacted our ability to deal with the Virus was a failure of centralized government. A national agency, the CDC, botched the test kit and another national agency, the FDA, had the power to keep anyone else from giving it a go.

    It might have made a difference, it might not, but it was a total fail that is the fault of relying on a centralized government response. Billions of dollars spent over decades, all for naught. Big national government - bad!

  48. @anonguy
    Herd immunity, without cure or vaccine, is unironically natural selection with a different name.

    It was a shockingly amoral proposition, that it could even be discussed is evidence much far soulless, sociopathic capitalism has become the cultural norm.

    …sociopathic capitalism has become the cultural norm.

    Is that it? Or is it the usual socialist aristocracy who likes to announce that England et al needs political correctness; Paki grooming gangs; mass immigration; more regulation of everything, all enforced by an ever more intrusive police state?

  49. @Intelligent Dasein
    Thus, just as I said in the earlier thread, it's all about sparing the healthcare system from the odious burden of doing its own job. "What? We (hypothetically) may not have enough ventilators? Quick, shut down the country!" I mean, far be it from them to do anything crass like triage respiratory care, make broader use of other supportive therapies, jury-rig some makeshift ventilators, and rush more into production.

    No, it's obvious now that this whole stupid overreaction was all about circling the wagons around the precious healthcare system and involuntarily conscripting the citizenry to fight it its battles for it, because the agencies that we spend hundreds of billions of dollars on every year were caught absolutely flat-footed when put to a very minor test of their abilities by a slightly-worse-than-the-flu coronavirus.

    Now it seems like things are not even that bad and we aren't actually running out of ventilators. Our ruling class collectively wet their pants, spent two trillion dollars, disrupted millions of lives, and plunged us into the final bread and circuses phase of our tottering imperium, all because their bloated healthcare apparatus could not handle a miniscule public health emergency and they were afraid of looking like idiots before their Boomer electorate. What a pitiful legacy to leave behind.

    Politically, “just do something” always wins in a crisis. If everything is ok in the end, they can say “our efforts avoided catastrophe.” If there is a catastrophe anyway, they can say “think how much worse it would have been without our efforts.”

    Doing nothing, however, is always a political loser. No matter how smart it might be, it appears you don’t care. Politics is all about showing you care.

    • Replies: @Danindc
    Coolidge always said re problems that if 100 boulders are rolling down hill toward you by doing nothing 99 will miss you. Hopefully Covid not that 1 Boulder.
    , @Hail
    Right. This is a fair argument against democracy, certainly against a bad form thereof.

    Interestingly, Sweden appears to be the country with the least degree of policy influence by Do Something panickers. They are proceeding with business as usual with minor flu-season precautions, which was almost certainly the right response. I'm not sure what this says about Sweden, whose politics is much mocked (for good reason) around here in other contexts.

    Also, it's worth saying that 'Crisis,' and the 'Do Something' kneejerk reaction, in our societies today tend to be triggered by a media campaign as often as not. (see the Media-Run State idea.) Remember the plague of White Police Murdering Unarmed Black Men?

    , @MBlanc46
    That’s a pretty cogent analysis.
  50. anon[242] • Disclaimer says:
    @Anon7
    “...we have a bunch of well paid, well pensioned time serving yutzes who would rather lecture us that quarantines don’t work and we need to be on guard against racism.”

    I wonder if a field that really needs the best people only once every decade or so can even attract the people it needs. Also, Public Health school graduates are overwhelmingly female now, so not just racism.

    I wonder if we’ll ever find out the names of the team that botched the Covid-19 test kit rollout. Probably not, but it’s possible that it wouldn’t have mattered.

    By mid-January, it’s probable that Covid had already been seeded in dozens of US cities by visitors from all over the world. That’s when the two key differences between Covid and the flu really kicked in. Infected people shed live virus for days before they had symptoms, and a far higher percentage of sick people need hospitalization.

    Covid had already been seeded in dozens of US cities by visitors from all over the world.

    This virus originated in china due to their shitty culinary habits. Western countries need to stop air travel from china full-stop.
    All chinese in Western countries to be repatriated back to their wonderful homeland.
    Future problems fixed.

  51. @Intelligent Dasein
    Thus, just as I said in the earlier thread, it's all about sparing the healthcare system from the odious burden of doing its own job. "What? We (hypothetically) may not have enough ventilators? Quick, shut down the country!" I mean, far be it from them to do anything crass like triage respiratory care, make broader use of other supportive therapies, jury-rig some makeshift ventilators, and rush more into production.

    No, it's obvious now that this whole stupid overreaction was all about circling the wagons around the precious healthcare system and involuntarily conscripting the citizenry to fight it its battles for it, because the agencies that we spend hundreds of billions of dollars on every year were caught absolutely flat-footed when put to a very minor test of their abilities by a slightly-worse-than-the-flu coronavirus.

    Now it seems like things are not even that bad and we aren't actually running out of ventilators. Our ruling class collectively wet their pants, spent two trillion dollars, disrupted millions of lives, and plunged us into the final bread and circuses phase of our tottering imperium, all because their bloated healthcare apparatus could not handle a miniscule public health emergency and they were afraid of looking like idiots before their Boomer electorate. What a pitiful legacy to leave behind.

    Point well taken, however:

    … triage respiratory care, make broader use of other supportive therapies, jury-rig some makeshift ventilators, and rush more into production.

    These things are actually happening right now across our country. That is how America is supposed to work. (Well, the triaging of respiratory care hasn’t been necessary yet, and that is one of the things we are trying to avoid. Otherwise, it could be YOUR grandmother — or YOU — who is denied.)

    Have you ever managed a group of employees in a business environment in which demand varied widely? I did years ago, about a dozen people. Much of the time we were paying all those wages for not much activity. Then once in a while things would get busy and I didn’t have enough people. This is a math problem that is both statistical and one of finding the optimum. Optimization is a crucial part of our modern world, and if you don’t like it, you can go out and live in the woods without it.

    I was tempted to “Agree” with your comment until I realized that there is no way for “the healthcare system” to be prepared at all times for something that rarely if ever happens. If you want that, then you must be willing to pay for it the way you pay for a military that is prepared to fight a two front war and maintain an empire, which half your federal taxes go for.

    • Agree: bomag
    • Replies: @Redneck farmer
    More like a quarter of our taxes go to the military. Half of our taxes go to those citizens, who after decades of hard work and toil in improving our country, bitch about the results.
    The ones most vulnerable to Corona-Chan.
    , @GeologyAnon Mk 2
    An eductor style respirator has been around for years and only costs $15 wholesale. About the price of a hand grenade. I don't think it's unreasonable to stockpile those, and in military spending terms, you can get a shit load of eductors for the price of a single, useless, Littoral Combat Ship.

    Imagine if we had cut one, one single LCS class vessel and spent all that money on these expedient eductor style respirators. We would have had an easy over-supply for all domestic need in this current crisis, and could have easily sent our surplus to Italy, or on a hospital ship to help the Iranians in a gesture of compassion and to bury the hatchet with them, which would do much to tarnish the satanic image of Americans their government our own have created in their minds. And it would have done far more for peace in the middle east and national security than any number of Littoral Combat Ships, for example.

    The stimulus package burned $500 billion for 'Corporate Liquidity' compared to the $360 billion direct payments to citizens. More socialism for these corporations, but without any useful strings attached: like, you must use E-Verify, or you must insource all manufacturing from overseas.

    Who pays for all this? The old? Who earned their money when taxes were lower and now have largely tax protected income? The same elderly who are driving social security and medicare into insolvency?

    No, the young. The ones hardest hit by the idiotic quarantines, and least likely to be afflicted by the disease. Is there anything else we can do for the Baby Boomers and Silents?

    Do you understand why we hate you so much?

    Touch your face and breathe deep.
  52. @Ron Unz

    You bought the world’s most sophisticated hammer, so everything looks like a nail, even when it turns out to be nitroglycerin.
     
    Ha, ha, that's a pretty good metaphor...

    But what's odd is that I'd been reading about the whole ventilator/ICU issue for weeks on comment-threads before the Brilliant British Brains around Boris Johnson announced their plans to solve the Coronavirus problem by killing maybe a million or two million of their own citizens.

    Isn't Johnson just some sort of Neocon? It wouldn't surprise me if the people around him are a bunch of dimwits...

    Herd immunity meant protecting the vulnerable and leaving the rest to get on with it until there was enough health care capacity to treat the vulnerable. The opposition parties never allowed this to be explained and fed the media with alarm stories.

    Then came the Imperial College forecast of 510k deaths, entirely based on a flu model. Why was it released? I suspect one or more teaching unions. The teachers did not like the idea of schools and universities staying open. An alarmist forecast suited their case. Did they even prompt Ferguson to issue it? Once in the media, school teachers and university lecturers abandoned their posts in droves. School closure became a Faite Accompli two weeks ahead of schedule. Lockdown commenced.

    The long term consequnece is that fewer people will build immunity due to the early lockdown. When the more virulent 2nd wave hits, people who owuld not otherwise have died will die and we will have less capacity (well people) than we would otherwise have had to deal with it. More dead and a longer period of economic disruption.

    The Imperial College model was supported by literallly the same group of mathematicians as support the University of East Anglia climate model, the basis for most climate models. climate modellers at UEA tend to be so inested in the model tht they manipulate the data when the real world gets it wrong as the Climategate scandal revealed.

    • Replies: @BB753
    Indeed, you can't develop herd immunity if you have a lockdown, assuming it would work against covid-19, which was a leap of faith to begin with.
    As I predicted, the Brits really had no plan but went ahead and called it herd immunity. It sounded like the suicidal bug-chasing of Aids by promiscuous gays.
    How's Boris coping with the disease, BTW?
    What a freaking genius!
  53. @vhrm
    Reading the AMA the OP references it's clear that the ER doc there is a big fan of the shelter-in-place, but like so many others he compares it to an alternative of doing nothing. And he puts the point of running out of ICU capacity at two weeks out (from 4 days ago) AND of no extra capacity is brought online.
    What can one say but "we'll see".

    One comment of interest on ICU use in the UK:


    No, we are not quite there yet.

    Not everyone is a good fit for ICU. Even outside of COVID, if you are of a certain frailty and you have certain underlying conditions, your chances of making it off a ventilator when you are deathly sick is close to 0%.

    It depends on where you are. In for profit systems, ventilators make a lot of money, and you may see a different critical care population. In the UK we see it as morally wrong to put patients through critical care, all the complications, the procedures, the delirium and to have patients struggling and suffering, when the chance of death at the end is nearly 100%. This type of patient is almost always much, much older and it is always a decision made with patient and family where possible.

    Therefore the population for COVID on critical care is 'self-selecting'.
     

    Is it compassion or is it "death panels"?

    What does that say about the situation in Italy? is their usage more UK or US?

    From a US pov i guess it doesn't matter since, whether for profit or otherwise, "do everything you can" is the expectation of most US people... so our shortages (if they materialize) will be worse than the UK.

    In a paper from Wuhan, 31 out of 32 patients put on ventilators died in an environment with no shoratge of ventilators (ie even relatively healthy patients has them). Ventilators are a distraction.

    • Replies: @guest007
    Could you give a citation for your very exact numbers? Unless someone provide a cite for whatever they are saying about Covid, the numbers would be ignored.
    , @vhrm

    In a paper from Wuhan, 31 out of 32 patients put on ventilators died in an environment with no shoratge of ventilators (ie even relatively healthy patients has them). Ventilators are a distraction.
     
    Another paper mentioned something like 50% i think (i don't have a reference) and that's pretty significant, if still not great.

    But whether it would make a big difference or not in terms of survival, if the shortage happens it will be a huge scandal.

    I mean as it stands i think after this the US will end up stockpiles of masks and ventilators to last 20 years. If an actual significant shortage happens we'll be up to 50 years.
    (and then the next virus will require, idk, dialysis machines or something and we'll go through this again)

    How are out ECMO gear supplies, i wonder.
    ( https://en.m.wikipedia.org/wiki/Extracorporeal_membrane_oxygenation )

    , @Buzz Mohawk
    First of all, we need to disregard any "information" that comes from China. It may be true, or it may be false. We don't know, therefore it is useless.

    Second, ventilators (and associated breathing equipment -- anything that helps people get oxygen) do save people. Furthermore, it is very likely less horrible to die if you at least have enough air in your lungs than not. Do you want yourself to die without being able to be hooked to one because there aren't enough? No, I don't think so, so STFU!

    , @nsa
    "31 out of 32 patients put on ventilators died"
    Future generations will look back and see a BoomerCaust in which 6 million entirely innocent, always altruistic, overly generous, innocent to a fault Boomers were struck down in their prime by the vicious BoomerRemover19 virus spread by evil neo-millenials wishing to use an expedited inheritance to pay off student loans and credit card debt supposedly foisted on them by the uncaring Boomer Generation. One vicious little inebriated neo-millenial twerp with hat on backwards partying at a Florida beach was heard to say: " spreading BR19 is the only way we'll ever own a house" and "he has heard rumours that BR19 saponifies its victims turning useless selfish old Boomer fucks into soap bars". Expect every major city in the future to have its own BoomerCaust museum and even a Tomb of the Unknown Boomer in Washington DC so future generations will never be allowed to forget the sacrifices made by the magnificent Boomers.
    , @Je Suis Omar Mateen
    "Ventilators are a distraction."

    Building ventilators (and face masks) helps people feel useful. Like social distancing or wearing blue masks. Utterly silly of course, but these things bestow significance on people's lives. CoronaHoax is a virtue-signalling smorgasbord.
    , @anon
    Ventilators are the last thing that is done. What you want is the maximum non invasive breathing support possible, which amounts to pure oxygen under some sort of pressure. Look it up on line if you are curious.

    The death rate on full ventilation depends on who you put on it. If you are only using it for the most serious, near death patients, they are going to mostly die.

    If you are using it on a mix of patients, you get mixed results. Etc.
    , @Pat in Oklahoma
    Philip. . .I had the same question about ventilators after reading/watching very moving accounts of nurses in Italy about how almost no one put on ventilators ends up surviving. I also read the account of a Texas A&M doctor working in New Orleans that in Seattle only 30 percent of ventilator patients recover. (These people are not Chinese shills.) I am in a vulnerable group (60 y/o male) and support strong measures, but I wonder if lack of ventilators will make much difference.

    I remember when my son had pneumonia at 10 months age, he had those oxygen tubes in his nose. Does anyone know about the supply of this supplemental oxygen equipment? My impression is that it is much more readily available.
  54. @Buzz Mohawk
    Point well taken, however:

    ... triage respiratory care, make broader use of other supportive therapies, jury-rig some makeshift ventilators, and rush more into production.
     
    These things are actually happening right now across our country. That is how America is supposed to work. (Well, the triaging of respiratory care hasn't been necessary yet, and that is one of the things we are trying to avoid. Otherwise, it could be YOUR grandmother -- or YOU -- who is denied.)

    Have you ever managed a group of employees in a business environment in which demand varied widely? I did years ago, about a dozen people. Much of the time we were paying all those wages for not much activity. Then once in a while things would get busy and I didn't have enough people. This is a math problem that is both statistical and one of finding the optimum. Optimization is a crucial part of our modern world, and if you don't like it, you can go out and live in the woods without it.

    I was tempted to "Agree" with your comment until I realized that there is no way for "the healthcare system" to be prepared at all times for something that rarely if ever happens. If you want that, then you must be willing to pay for it the way you pay for a military that is prepared to fight a two front war and maintain an empire, which half your federal taxes go for.

    More like a quarter of our taxes go to the military. Half of our taxes go to those citizens, who after decades of hard work and toil in improving our country, bitch about the results.
    The ones most vulnerable to Corona-Chan.

    • Replies: @Buzz Mohawk
    Okay, a quarter. If Mr. "Intelligent" is willing to add another quarter to our budget, then he can have his "healthcare system" that is always ready to fight this two-front war against something that is unpredictable and rarely happens.

    I agree with your sentiment. All you have to notice now is how school districts here in my state are now serving Three Meals a Day to chillin' who can't be fed by their parents but somehow all have smart phones, endless data access and cool sneakers. It's all bullshit.

    , @AnotherDad

    More like a quarter of our taxes go to the military. Half of our taxes go to those citizens, who after decades of hard work and toil in improving our country, bitch about the results.
    The ones most vulnerable to Corona-Chan.
     
    I swear, i saw that guy in the mirror this morning.
    , @Bill Jones
    Total Federal income tax estimates for 2020 = $1.9 Trillion.
    Total pissed away on the useless dipshit military >$1 Trillion.

    Total Corporate tax btw only about $285 billion despite all the sniveling from the Little Linda Graham's

  55. Anon[336] • Disclaimer says:
    @PiltdownMan
    Somewhat OT:

    https://www.venteclife.com/assets/images/VOCSN-Explode---Engineered-Tough-Labels-01_1500.jpg

    Made by these nice folks, in Kokomo, IN.

    https://fs29.formsite.com/M6gPle/images/ventec_team.jpg

    https://www.venteclife.com/assets/images/accentimages/accent_gm_ventec_jobs2.jpg

    $16.67/hour if you want to apply to join them and GM in making the ventilators.

    https://gm.selectrakonline.com/Apply/Portal/Index/21?positionReqId=653&positionId=583&facilityId=277

    Via Marginal Revolution is this cheap retro ventilator design, slightly updated. It’s built from off the shelf parts, based on a 1950s ventilator designed by an anesthesiologist based on equipment used in his profession. It was an international effort by academics from Italy, Princeton, UCLA, Canada, and France.

    The design seems to be a clever mechanical design, with a computer chip only present in one place to make it cheaper to make. Very Dr. Frankenstein, with bubbling flasks and a lot of noise, although the prototype is apparently packaged more compactly.

    https://www.discovermagazine.com/technology/how-to-build-a-mechanical-ventilator-for-a-few-hundred-euros

    https://arxiv.org/abs/2003.10405

    PDF: https://arxiv.org/pdf/2003.10405.pdf

    Videos at this Dropbox page:

    https://www.dropbox.com/sh/f0n24g0n9tn51ui/AACtWKULGCQLH22Or9oDulzza?dl=0

    • Thanks: vhrm
  56. @JohnnyWalker123
    Neither has Holland.

    https://twitter.com/SPIEGEL_English/status/1243453473141608449

    The Dutch actually closed their schools, sports clubs, cafes, coffee shops and restaurants a week before the Britain. The left, as ever, are dealing in absolutes rather understanding that it is case of different phases and stages of measures.

  57. @RichardTaylor
    Did we establish that something went "wrong" with the original UK plan?

    Deaths simply aren't piling up the way the hysterical people predicted. Is it really distinguishable from regular flu season? Clearly, not as bad as the 1968 Hong Kong flu.

    Are spaz-geek nerds just power tripping over their ability to shut the world down?

    I had the Hong Kong flu back in 1969. I can’t remember the exact month.

    True, 1 million died, including 100,000 in the US.

    But 500 million of us survived with few if any lasting effects.

    That was a death rate of about 0.2% at a time when medicine wasn’t as advanced as it is now. Bad for the flu, but far less deadly and a little less communicable than Coronavirus.

    The HK flu was bad because it was a new type of flu for which we had no natural immunity. The R0 was low the first wave, which was during the kids’ Christmas break. Almost as high as for Coronavirus for the second wave of HK flu.

    Also, Coronavirus appears to cause damage in the hearts and lungs of some survivors.

    We don’t know the death rate of Coronavirus, mostly because of lack of testing. Reports from both Wuhan and Italy suggest the death rate was vastly higher than reported, and that many cases were never discovered, affecting both the numerator and the denominator. But it appears to be at least an order of magnitude more deadly than the HK flu.

    • Thanks: RichardTaylor
    • Replies: @Anonymous
    Apparently 80,000 people died from Hong Kong flu in Britain, yet it appears there was no lock down and was quickly forgotten thereafter.
  58. @vhrm
    Reading the AMA the OP references it's clear that the ER doc there is a big fan of the shelter-in-place, but like so many others he compares it to an alternative of doing nothing. And he puts the point of running out of ICU capacity at two weeks out (from 4 days ago) AND of no extra capacity is brought online.
    What can one say but "we'll see".

    One comment of interest on ICU use in the UK:


    No, we are not quite there yet.

    Not everyone is a good fit for ICU. Even outside of COVID, if you are of a certain frailty and you have certain underlying conditions, your chances of making it off a ventilator when you are deathly sick is close to 0%.

    It depends on where you are. In for profit systems, ventilators make a lot of money, and you may see a different critical care population. In the UK we see it as morally wrong to put patients through critical care, all the complications, the procedures, the delirium and to have patients struggling and suffering, when the chance of death at the end is nearly 100%. This type of patient is almost always much, much older and it is always a decision made with patient and family where possible.

    Therefore the population for COVID on critical care is 'self-selecting'.
     

    Is it compassion or is it "death panels"?

    What does that say about the situation in Italy? is their usage more UK or US?

    From a US pov i guess it doesn't matter since, whether for profit or otherwise, "do everything you can" is the expectation of most US people... so our shortages (if they materialize) will be worse than the UK.

    You can inflate, deflate and reinflate a plastic bag forever.

  59. @Anonymous
    I've often wondered whether it was some type of exceptionally virulent and rapidly mutating nasty strain of virus - rather than a massive meteorite - which doomed the dinosaurs.
    After all, it wasn't a sudden mass die off, but rather a slow lingering decline over millions of years.

    Viruses become less lethal over time. Natural selection makes them that way. Almost always, the less sick they make you the more likely you are to spread them, all other things being equal.

    • Replies: @Paleo Liberal
    Not always.

    It is believed that the original AIDS virus is pretty much what is now called HIV-2. This is a horrible disease, but far less deadly than what spread to Europe and she US — HIV-1.

    The second waves of both the Spanish and the Hong Kong flues were more deadly than the first waves, in terms of both R0 and death rates.

    Most of the time you are correct. It is thought that the less deadly seasonal flues we get these days mutated from the deadlier original versions.

    Something interesting about the Coronavirus is how slowly it is mutating. This gives hope that a vaccine could actually work.
  60. A nation-sized clusterfrack entirely appropriate for the dumbed-down, islamicised, post-industrial third-world shithole Britain has become.

  61. @Redneck farmer
    More like a quarter of our taxes go to the military. Half of our taxes go to those citizens, who after decades of hard work and toil in improving our country, bitch about the results.
    The ones most vulnerable to Corona-Chan.

    Okay, a quarter. If Mr. “Intelligent” is willing to add another quarter to our budget, then he can have his “healthcare system” that is always ready to fight this two-front war against something that is unpredictable and rarely happens.

    I agree with your sentiment. All you have to notice now is how school districts here in my state are now serving Three Meals a Day to chillin’ who can’t be fed by their parents but somehow all have smart phones, endless data access and cool sneakers. It’s all bullshit.

  62. @Philip Owen
    In a paper from Wuhan, 31 out of 32 patients put on ventilators died in an environment with no shoratge of ventilators (ie even relatively healthy patients has them). Ventilators are a distraction.

    Could you give a citation for your very exact numbers? Unless someone provide a cite for whatever they are saying about Covid, the numbers would be ignored.

  63. @Anonymous
    I've often wondered whether it was some type of exceptionally virulent and rapidly mutating nasty strain of virus - rather than a massive meteorite - which doomed the dinosaurs.
    After all, it wasn't a sudden mass die off, but rather a slow lingering decline over millions of years.

    T. Rex went first. They couldn’t handle the masks.

    • LOL: Buffalo Joe
  64. @PiltdownMan
    Somewhat OT:

    https://www.venteclife.com/assets/images/VOCSN-Explode---Engineered-Tough-Labels-01_1500.jpg

    Made by these nice folks, in Kokomo, IN.

    https://fs29.formsite.com/M6gPle/images/ventec_team.jpg

    https://www.venteclife.com/assets/images/accentimages/accent_gm_ventec_jobs2.jpg

    $16.67/hour if you want to apply to join them and GM in making the ventilators.

    https://gm.selectrakonline.com/Apply/Portal/Index/21?positionReqId=653&positionId=583&facilityId=277

    # hashtag – ventilators-so-white

  65. @Philip Owen
    Herd immunity meant protecting the vulnerable and leaving the rest to get on with it until there was enough health care capacity to treat the vulnerable. The opposition parties never allowed this to be explained and fed the media with alarm stories.

    Then came the Imperial College forecast of 510k deaths, entirely based on a flu model. Why was it released? I suspect one or more teaching unions. The teachers did not like the idea of schools and universities staying open. An alarmist forecast suited their case. Did they even prompt Ferguson to issue it? Once in the media, school teachers and university lecturers abandoned their posts in droves. School closure became a Faite Accompli two weeks ahead of schedule. Lockdown commenced.

    The long term consequnece is that fewer people will build immunity due to the early lockdown. When the more virulent 2nd wave hits, people who owuld not otherwise have died will die and we will have less capacity (well people) than we would otherwise have had to deal with it. More dead and a longer period of economic disruption.

    The Imperial College model was supported by literallly the same group of mathematicians as support the University of East Anglia climate model, the basis for most climate models. climate modellers at UEA tend to be so inested in the model tht they manipulate the data when the real world gets it wrong as the Climategate scandal revealed.

    Indeed, you can’t develop herd immunity if you have a lockdown, assuming it would work against covid-19, which was a leap of faith to begin with.
    As I predicted, the Brits really had no plan but went ahead and called it herd immunity. It sounded like the suicidal bug-chasing of Aids by promiscuous gays.
    How’s Boris coping with the disease, BTW?
    What a freaking genius!

    • Replies: @Philip Owen
    Well. Thousands of pages of evidence plan are here.

    https://www.gov.uk/guidance/pandemic-flu
  66. @George
    "$16.67/hour"

    Exceeding the $7.25 min wage, this is a true national emergency.

    I hope they had a fun two days making ventilators. Now that all those employees can go make twice that on unemployment, I’m guessing not everyone shows up to work.

  67. @Philip Owen
    In a paper from Wuhan, 31 out of 32 patients put on ventilators died in an environment with no shoratge of ventilators (ie even relatively healthy patients has them). Ventilators are a distraction.

    In a paper from Wuhan, 31 out of 32 patients put on ventilators died in an environment with no shoratge of ventilators (ie even relatively healthy patients has them). Ventilators are a distraction.

    Another paper mentioned something like 50% i think (i don’t have a reference) and that’s pretty significant, if still not great.

    But whether it would make a big difference or not in terms of survival, if the shortage happens it will be a huge scandal.

    I mean as it stands i think after this the US will end up stockpiles of masks and ventilators to last 20 years. If an actual significant shortage happens we’ll be up to 50 years.
    (and then the next virus will require, idk, dialysis machines or something and we’ll go through this again)

    How are out ECMO gear supplies, i wonder.
    ( https://en.m.wikipedia.org/wiki/Extracorporeal_membrane_oxygenation )

    • Replies: @UK

    How are out ECMO gear supplies, i wonder.
     
    I spoke to a respiratory expert, they didn't really get the benefit of ECMOs in this case.
    , @Anonymous
    There's no way that 50% of patients on ventilators left the hospital with a handshake for the doctor. If only 50% died, that means the other 50% were still languishing until someone ultimately pulled the plug. Where are all the people who have recovered from the ventilators? Do they give interviews?

    A guy on Twitter who has been predicting pieces of this way ahead of time says the ventilators are actually killing people more than covid by itself. VAP- ventilator assisted pneumonia was already killing up to 50% of vent patients before covid, and with covid it is close to 100.

    This should be investigated. A 95 year old woman beat the illness because she refused a ventilator.

    Twitter.com/lokijulianus
  68. @Intelligent Dasein
    Thus, just as I said in the earlier thread, it's all about sparing the healthcare system from the odious burden of doing its own job. "What? We (hypothetically) may not have enough ventilators? Quick, shut down the country!" I mean, far be it from them to do anything crass like triage respiratory care, make broader use of other supportive therapies, jury-rig some makeshift ventilators, and rush more into production.

    No, it's obvious now that this whole stupid overreaction was all about circling the wagons around the precious healthcare system and involuntarily conscripting the citizenry to fight it its battles for it, because the agencies that we spend hundreds of billions of dollars on every year were caught absolutely flat-footed when put to a very minor test of their abilities by a slightly-worse-than-the-flu coronavirus.

    Now it seems like things are not even that bad and we aren't actually running out of ventilators. Our ruling class collectively wet their pants, spent two trillion dollars, disrupted millions of lives, and plunged us into the final bread and circuses phase of our tottering imperium, all because their bloated healthcare apparatus could not handle a miniscule public health emergency and they were afraid of looking like idiots before their Boomer electorate. What a pitiful legacy to leave behind.

    The modern principles of government: cover you ass and keep stacking cash.

  69. Iceland has about 9 times the number of cases per capita than the USA.

    Omg, they’re all dying.

    With their 0.2% death rate?

    Oh, the more you test, the more cases you have and the lower your lethality.

    Weird how more tests means more cases and proportionately many fewer deaths! Why ever could that be?

    Does testing create cases and save lives?

    More “evidence”: in the US testing is going up exponentially as are cases!

    More, more “evidence”: in Italy they rigorously test the dead for any sign of Wuhan Virus, but barely test the non-severely ill…and the dead all seem to have it, while the non-severely ill do not! Whaddaya know!

    Amazing…proof….testing causes Coronavirus.

    As for the UK, it was mostly that genuine hysteria
    and motivated disingenuous hysteria won out. The number of ventilators has been increased by 60%. Dyson has designed a new one and is building about 200% more. And their use is not exactly game-changing anyway.

    “Human suffering aside, socialists in my timeline are living their best lives: command and control, massive state spending, everybody paid to stay at home, rationing on the way, private schools folding and the joy of piling into entrepreneurs as their businesses go down the swanny”

    Of course, the Unz version of those socialists is even more depressing. “Beijing Rona”.

    • Replies: @Hail
    Dr. John Ioannidis of Stanford, a legitimate expert in the field, is now predicting a total death rate as .01% to 0.1% of those who are exposed to the virus.

    If it affects half of the residents of USA, that final Big Scary Number, total deaths attributed to the Big Scary 'New' Virus, roughly on par with usual flu deaths; adding in other flu deaths, that's a somewhat worse flu season than usual. It happens. Life goes on.

    See John Ioannidis' recent article in the Wall Street Journal (excerpts here).

    __________

    Fiasco, noun, mid-19th century, Italian. Originally theater slang for "a failure in performance;" by 1862 it had acquired the general sense of "any ignominious failure or dismal flop," on or off the stage. It comes via the French phrase faire fiasco "turn out a failure" (19c.), from Italian far fiasco "suffer a complete breakdown in performance," literally "make a bottle," from fiasco "bottle," from Late Latin flasco "bottle" (see flask). (Etymology.)

  70. @vhrm

    In a paper from Wuhan, 31 out of 32 patients put on ventilators died in an environment with no shoratge of ventilators (ie even relatively healthy patients has them). Ventilators are a distraction.
     
    Another paper mentioned something like 50% i think (i don't have a reference) and that's pretty significant, if still not great.

    But whether it would make a big difference or not in terms of survival, if the shortage happens it will be a huge scandal.

    I mean as it stands i think after this the US will end up stockpiles of masks and ventilators to last 20 years. If an actual significant shortage happens we'll be up to 50 years.
    (and then the next virus will require, idk, dialysis machines or something and we'll go through this again)

    How are out ECMO gear supplies, i wonder.
    ( https://en.m.wikipedia.org/wiki/Extracorporeal_membrane_oxygenation )

    How are out ECMO gear supplies, i wonder.

    I spoke to a respiratory expert, they didn’t really get the benefit of ECMOs in this case.

  71. @Philip Owen
    In a paper from Wuhan, 31 out of 32 patients put on ventilators died in an environment with no shoratge of ventilators (ie even relatively healthy patients has them). Ventilators are a distraction.

    First of all, we need to disregard any “information” that comes from China. It may be true, or it may be false. We don’t know, therefore it is useless.

    Second, ventilators (and associated breathing equipment — anything that helps people get oxygen) do save people. Furthermore, it is very likely less horrible to die if you at least have enough air in your lungs than not. Do you want yourself to die without being able to be hooked to one because there aren’t enough? No, I don’t think so, so STFU!

    • Replies: @Bert
    The Chinese provided a model to the world for how to suppress the epidemic without much loss of life or long term economic disruption. Because the U.S. is, at all socioecomic and political levels, full of dumbasses like you, it will suffer thousands of deaths and severe economic turmoil. BTW, in Spain physicians are treating hopeless cases with sedatives to take care of the pain you are afraid of. My father died breathless from ischemic heart disease. He was man enough to do that calmly. You would not be.
    , @Jack D
    It's not so much a question of being hooked up but of being taken off. Doctors have a pretty good idea going in of who is going to make it in the 1st place, but OK we have a "humane" system so we hook up the 88 year old with COPD anyway to give him a fighting chance, run up the bill and prevent law suits. BUT, after you have been on there a week and still aren't breathing on your own, the chances that ANOTHER week or three is going to help is close to nil. That's where the insanity kicks in - don't you dare unplug Grandpa - we're praying for him (and ain't payin' for him) and we want you to do EVERYTHING to keep him with us.
    , @Parbes
    "First of all, we need to disregard any information that comes from China."

    No, first of all we need to completely disregard dumbass "U.S. patriotard" bigots like you who assign "reliability" to a government's data based on presence of their own ideological and racial animus towards that government, and on whether that government has currently been designated an "enemy" by the mendacious U.S. regime. I hope the coronavirus in the U.S. decimates all the jingoist shitheads of your ilk.

    Don't comment on the Internet, man. You're an embarrassment to your mother. The Internet was invented for smarter people than you.
    , @Philip Owen
    I am 68, T2D with an untreatable clot on my left ventricle so I am in the firing line. On my side I am overwieght not obese, never smoked, blood pressure today 134/72 and I can deliver a sustianed pulse of 150 on a running machine for about 3 minutes, indefinitely at 130. My 80% pulse should be around 120. If I am ill enough for a ventilator it's over anyway. Let me die at home.

    I have been asked to source ventilators on behalf of the Zambian government. I think that amounts to a huge waste of resources compared to what else they need to do. I am still thinking it over. It is not clear they have community transmission yet. It is clear that they have huge numbers of people with HIV infections. Some are being treated for AIDS with antivirals. They will probably not be infected. Those who so far only have HIV will be swept away. Would you want to be responsible for diverting treatment away from them? The elite should probably take AIDS antivirals as prophylactics since they are around. Better use of resources all round. They probably can't come up with the cash anyway.
  72. @Paleo Liberal
    I had the Hong Kong flu back in 1969. I can’t remember the exact month.

    True, 1 million died, including 100,000 in the US.

    But 500 million of us survived with few if any lasting effects.

    That was a death rate of about 0.2% at a time when medicine wasn’t as advanced as it is now. Bad for the flu, but far less deadly and a little less communicable than Coronavirus.

    The HK flu was bad because it was a new type of flu for which we had no natural immunity. The R0 was low the first wave, which was during the kids’ Christmas break. Almost as high as for Coronavirus for the second wave of HK flu.

    Also, Coronavirus appears to cause damage in the hearts and lungs of some survivors.

    We don’t know the death rate of Coronavirus, mostly because of lack of testing. Reports from both Wuhan and Italy suggest the death rate was vastly higher than reported, and that many cases were never discovered, affecting both the numerator and the denominator. But it appears to be at least an order of magnitude more deadly than the HK flu.

    Apparently 80,000 people died from Hong Kong flu in Britain, yet it appears there was no lock down and was quickly forgotten thereafter.

    • Replies: @Lurker
    Indeed! I'd never even heard of it until the other day when it was discussed here at iSteve.
  73. @PiltdownMan
    Somewhat OT:

    https://www.venteclife.com/assets/images/VOCSN-Explode---Engineered-Tough-Labels-01_1500.jpg

    Made by these nice folks, in Kokomo, IN.

    https://fs29.formsite.com/M6gPle/images/ventec_team.jpg

    https://www.venteclife.com/assets/images/accentimages/accent_gm_ventec_jobs2.jpg

    $16.67/hour if you want to apply to join them and GM in making the ventilators.

    https://gm.selectrakonline.com/Apply/Portal/Index/21?positionReqId=653&positionId=583&facilityId=277

    Chinese published data indicate that anyone sick enough to need artificial ventilation does not survive after being put on a ventilator. So like most things the U.S. has done in response to the epidemic, this manufacturing effort makes no sense. If all persons over 65 years of age had been legally required to sequester themselves on March 1st (when I did), the worsening crisis would have been avoided. That would have allowed the Hammer and Dance approach to have been applied, and herd immunity would be developing with little distruption to economic life or to the functionality of hospitals.

    • Replies: @Travis
    good point about ventilators...they do not save lives, they merely delay death by 12 days. This was also observed during theH1N1 pandemic in 2009.

    With swine flu the majority of those put on a ventilator died.
    Mortality was 74% among ventilated patients for H1N1.
    https://www.ncbi.nlm.nih.gov/pmc/articles/PMC3275972/
  74. @Che Blutarsky
    R0 is a function of the transmission properties of the virus, which may or may not change with time as mutations happen. It is also a function of human behavior, which changes over time in a response to the progression of disease - hygiene changes, people wear masks, people keep their distance, large events are shut down, travel is restricted. It is also a function of the population density (with spread correlating more with the square of the population density than the population density). It is also a function of cultural behaviors (greeting customs) and many other things. It might also change with respect to environmental conditions.

    The death rate depends on hospitalization capacity and many facets of demographics - age, possibly ethnicity, past tobacco/alcohol/drug use, past exposure to industrial chemicals/air pollution, obesity, auto-immune disorders, etc.

    This is just to say that modelling can tell you many interesting things about a dynamic system, but it is based on many simplifying assumptions, sometimes without much data to establish the parameters, and often with approximations to take out non-linearity so that it can be solved easier. There is a limit to what models can tell you.

    Which leads to our current situation. If the country closed down two weeks ago, when can it open back up? Certainly right now we are in a worse position than then, with the number of cases still growing rapidly, with the supply chains of vital drugs and equipment still not secure. The ability to rapidly test tens of millions of people every week is quite a ways off. Any lightening of the restrictions at this point will be a signal that the original decision to take all of the measures that were taken were mistaken.

    So, what if only 5% of the population gets it this round, it fades away in the summer months, and reappears in the fall? The "herd immunity" will be minimal, except maybe in places like NYC. Do we expect to have the ability to do mass testing by then? We'll certainly be in better shape there, but will it still be sufficient? Will we have to shut everything down again? What would be the argument against it?

    For some of the worst flu outbreaks, such as the Spanish Flu and the Hong Kong Flu, the second wave was much worse than the first wave.

    For example, the first wave of HK Flu was during XMas vacation when people were staying home. The second wave was when people were working and kids were in school.

  75. @Buzz Mohawk
    First of all, we need to disregard any "information" that comes from China. It may be true, or it may be false. We don't know, therefore it is useless.

    Second, ventilators (and associated breathing equipment -- anything that helps people get oxygen) do save people. Furthermore, it is very likely less horrible to die if you at least have enough air in your lungs than not. Do you want yourself to die without being able to be hooked to one because there aren't enough? No, I don't think so, so STFU!

    The Chinese provided a model to the world for how to suppress the epidemic without much loss of life or long term economic disruption. Because the U.S. is, at all socioecomic and political levels, full of dumbasses like you, it will suffer thousands of deaths and severe economic turmoil. BTW, in Spain physicians are treating hopeless cases with sedatives to take care of the pain you are afraid of. My father died breathless from ischemic heart disease. He was man enough to do that calmly. You would not be.

    • Replies: @Buzz Mohawk
    Gee Bert, you sound like a great guy. Thanks! You believe whatever comes from the communist Chinese government, yet you doubt what comes from mine. Okay. On what do you base such difference in your certainty? I don't have much credence in mine, but I am knowledgeable enough to know not to have a different view of others. My wife grew up under a communist dictatorship, so I have learned some first-hand accounts of what that is like. What is your basis for your faith in the Chinese communist government?
  76. This is a perfect example of the utter idiocy, the self-destructive insanity, that defines post-Modern academia and democratic politics and journalism. A ‘bright idea that sounds good in theory to
    liberals’ and ‘progressives’ and ‘deep thinkers’ catches fire among them, and they place all their eggs in its baskets. delighted with their brilliance. More disaster ensues, and they coo at one another, sometimes explaining their little mistake and many times blaming their victims, but they keep their jobs and their status. And they get stated on their next great mistake.

  77. @Ron Unz

    You bought the world’s most sophisticated hammer, so everything looks like a nail, even when it turns out to be nitroglycerin.
     
    Ha, ha, that's a pretty good metaphor...

    But what's odd is that I'd been reading about the whole ventilator/ICU issue for weeks on comment-threads before the Brilliant British Brains around Boris Johnson announced their plans to solve the Coronavirus problem by killing maybe a million or two million of their own citizens.

    Isn't Johnson just some sort of Neocon? It wouldn't surprise me if the people around him are a bunch of dimwits...

    Yes, Boris Johnson is a Brit version of American Neocons.

  78. @El Dato
    > amoral proposition

    The universe _is_ amoral. Unless you less than 16 years old, you better get used to it.

    > capitalism

    What has that to do with anything?

    In fact, it sounds quite socialist to me.

    It's also an acceptable plan ... under certain circumstances.

    In fact, it sounds quite socialist to me.

  79. From the point of epistemology it makes sense to try different strategies and look in the end which has worked best. The best-working strategy may yet be “herd immunity” – we won’t know it before we can compare the mortality rates 2019/2020.
    The Dutch and the Swedes followed the same strategy like the Brits. Now only the Swedish government clings to it. So, Johnson’s problem may have been that his citizens are no Swedes.

    • Replies: @Dieter Kief

    The Dutch and the Swedes followed the same strategy like the Brits.

     

    Shouldn't we look at South Korea, Taiwan, Honkong an Japan too? Don't the CO-19 strategies in these countries look like a success story?
    , @AnotherGuessModel
    The Netherlands and Sweden are not doing well.
  80. @Anonymous
    UK u-turn story sounds less than 100% truthful.

    The struggle against the witch corona really is a war in the sense that truth went on the chopping block immediately.

    It's been weeks of lies distortions misrepresentations. Data is the devil's playpen: yesterday there was a push to construct a narrative that South Korea was suddenly losing control of the virus because their "death doubling rate" suddenly jumped or some such bullshit.

    South Korea pop 50 mil
    Total cases 10000
    Total deaths 150

    That's right less than 150 deaths in a country of 50 mil and PROJECT FEAR decided to toss a narrative into the mix that the war was suddenly in doubt. It's an obvious demoralization campaign.

    I saw another attempt today this time Japan headline deliberately constructed to make the war against corona seem like a failure. The stats from Japan are much more absurd than Korea not worth listing the numbers.

    This shit is planted in the media by intel agencies obviously...

    South Korea pop 50 mil
    Total cases 10000
    Total deaths 150

    You understand that this is a success story of the the extreme measures South Korea took to be at this juncture. It wouldn’t be that way now otherwise, it isn’t like they let it run its course and this is the outcome.

    These figures are a call to action, not justification for inaction.

  81. @PiltdownMan
    Somewhat OT:

    https://www.venteclife.com/assets/images/VOCSN-Explode---Engineered-Tough-Labels-01_1500.jpg

    Made by these nice folks, in Kokomo, IN.

    https://fs29.formsite.com/M6gPle/images/ventec_team.jpg

    https://www.venteclife.com/assets/images/accentimages/accent_gm_ventec_jobs2.jpg

    $16.67/hour if you want to apply to join them and GM in making the ventilators.

    https://gm.selectrakonline.com/Apply/Portal/Index/21?positionReqId=653&positionId=583&facilityId=277

    Wow, hope that picture of the team doesn’t get out. They’ll shut that operation down right quick. Just a bunch of European-descended people with a smattering of Asian-descended people. Missing a whole A-list cornucopia of Identity-Diversity stars…

    • Agree: Mark G.
  82. @Che Blutarsky
    R0 is a function of the transmission properties of the virus, which may or may not change with time as mutations happen. It is also a function of human behavior, which changes over time in a response to the progression of disease - hygiene changes, people wear masks, people keep their distance, large events are shut down, travel is restricted. It is also a function of the population density (with spread correlating more with the square of the population density than the population density). It is also a function of cultural behaviors (greeting customs) and many other things. It might also change with respect to environmental conditions.

    The death rate depends on hospitalization capacity and many facets of demographics - age, possibly ethnicity, past tobacco/alcohol/drug use, past exposure to industrial chemicals/air pollution, obesity, auto-immune disorders, etc.

    This is just to say that modelling can tell you many interesting things about a dynamic system, but it is based on many simplifying assumptions, sometimes without much data to establish the parameters, and often with approximations to take out non-linearity so that it can be solved easier. There is a limit to what models can tell you.

    Which leads to our current situation. If the country closed down two weeks ago, when can it open back up? Certainly right now we are in a worse position than then, with the number of cases still growing rapidly, with the supply chains of vital drugs and equipment still not secure. The ability to rapidly test tens of millions of people every week is quite a ways off. Any lightening of the restrictions at this point will be a signal that the original decision to take all of the measures that were taken were mistaken.

    So, what if only 5% of the population gets it this round, it fades away in the summer months, and reappears in the fall? The "herd immunity" will be minimal, except maybe in places like NYC. Do we expect to have the ability to do mass testing by then? We'll certainly be in better shape there, but will it still be sufficient? Will we have to shut everything down again? What would be the argument against it?

    There isn’t any evidence yet that recovery from the virus confers immunity to reinfection.

    Obviously, because it hasn’t been around long enough.

    There is evidence beginning to emerge, not conclusive by any means, but scraps, that suggest that immunity to reinfection is not a given.

    So before talking about Herd Immunity, one should be relatively certain that individual immunity occurs in the first place.

    And, as a reminder because this is a big deal, there is no evidence for this yet.

    • Replies: @anonguy
    I'd also add that the Chinese doctor who was admonished by authorities for alarmism early in the spread and then later passed to the disease may have been a reinfection/relapse.

    Some say he was actually assassinated, but discounting that, he may well have been a case of reinfection.

    Consider, he was likely exposed early on and without enhanced proctection, to patients before anyone understood the threat to health care workers in December or so.

    Young guy, thirties, he shrugs off the mild symptoms, if any upon initial infection. Two months later, he either relapses/reinfects and dies.

    It is almost a certainty that he was infected early, based upon what we know now about how rapidly it spreads among medical staff.

    There were lots of reports early on about a lot of deaths among relatively healthy/not old Chinese health care workers. Much of the speculation about this surmised higher viral loads as the cause of severity among Chinese health care workers but it also could be reinfection/relapse after an initial mild/asymptomatic infection.

  83. @but an humble craftsman
    Those people lost the largest empire in human history by twice mistaking which one of their rivals was the serious threat and still celebrate their double triumph --you do not seriously expect them to think things through, do you?

    Agree, but instead of “double triumph”, you should call it “double mistake”.

    • Replies: @but an humble craftsman
    I forgot the quotation marks, sorry for that.
  84. @Ron Unz

    You bought the world’s most sophisticated hammer, so everything looks like a nail, even when it turns out to be nitroglycerin.
     
    Ha, ha, that's a pretty good metaphor...

    But what's odd is that I'd been reading about the whole ventilator/ICU issue for weeks on comment-threads before the Brilliant British Brains around Boris Johnson announced their plans to solve the Coronavirus problem by killing maybe a million or two million of their own citizens.

    Isn't Johnson just some sort of Neocon? It wouldn't surprise me if the people around him are a bunch of dimwits...

    Isn’t Johnson just some sort of Neocon? It wouldn’t surprise me if the people around him are a bunch of dimwits…

    They’re in politics…what else could they be.

  85. Imperial drop their number again, this time to 5,700.

    https://www.thetimes.co.uk/article/coronavirus-lockdown-is-on-course-to-reduce-total-death-rate-3gn7hfjzk

    Of course this is solely due to government actions, despite most being likely to be implemented anyway, rather than them having got their sums wrong.

    • Replies: @Philip Owen
    Their mathematical modelling support is from a group at the University of East Anglia. They are literally the same team as climatologists.
  86. At last count, there are ~170 covid positives in Travis county and 1 fatality a 70 yo woman with underlying health issues. So covid has not overwhelmed the local hospitals’ capacities. There is no mandatory shelter in place order. Interestingly, in the main, residents are chosing to self-isolate as much as possible. Traffic has emptied out of downtown Austin. Interestingly, the first detected COVID positive was the wife of the president of the behemoth Univ. of Texas campus back from a shopping trip to NYC. Steve noticed this phenomenon first AFAIK. Here’s a putatative prognosis: high-level whites blacks and browns as is the case in Austin will be keeping their space from others in stores and elsewhere in the future. Although it goes against the norm of easy socializing, the norm may be emended until Ro is less that 1.

    As for bars, restaurants, etc. ordered closed, social distancing will be enforced by chair placement, as I noted when getting my car re-registered at the county last week.

  87. @Ron Unz

    You bought the world’s most sophisticated hammer, so everything looks like a nail, even when it turns out to be nitroglycerin.
     
    Ha, ha, that's a pretty good metaphor...

    But what's odd is that I'd been reading about the whole ventilator/ICU issue for weeks on comment-threads before the Brilliant British Brains around Boris Johnson announced their plans to solve the Coronavirus problem by killing maybe a million or two million of their own citizens.

    Isn't Johnson just some sort of Neocon? It wouldn't surprise me if the people around him are a bunch of dimwits...

    “Isn’t Johnson just some sort of Neocon? It wouldn’t surprise me if the people around him are a bunch of dimwits…

    Maybe, but I don’t think that matters.
    There are cues that the UK plan was a plan from the permanent government, i.e. civil service, and presented to Johnson for approval. “Evidence Based” is a nearly 3 decade old UK initiative to systematically weigh the available sources of empirical evidence to inform health care policy. I’d bet that the plan was cooked up in the past and dusted off. That would explain why it didn’t seem to account for current novel conditions. Granted, Boris may have just been using the vernacular to gain credibility, but the words sound like they came straight from NHS.

    Here is a US example, https://www.politico.com/news/2020/03/25/trump-coronavirus-national-security-council-149285 . The portion of the story I’m most willing to accept uncritically is that the plan emerged from civil service.

    As a practical matter, I’m not sure what more we “could” have done. Getting people to accept the social distancing remains a struggle and our manufacturing capacity is so hollowed out we aren’t going to produce a lot of masks. Moreover, CDC keeps telling us how masks are not only useless, but provide a false sense of security. CDC and FDA are permanent government.

  88. @anonguy
    There isn't any evidence yet that recovery from the virus confers immunity to reinfection.

    Obviously, because it hasn't been around long enough.

    There is evidence beginning to emerge, not conclusive by any means, but scraps, that suggest that immunity to reinfection is not a given.

    So before talking about Herd Immunity, one should be relatively certain that individual immunity occurs in the first place.

    And, as a reminder because this is a big deal, there is no evidence for this yet.

    I’d also add that the Chinese doctor who was admonished by authorities for alarmism early in the spread and then later passed to the disease may have been a reinfection/relapse.

    Some say he was actually assassinated, but discounting that, he may well have been a case of reinfection.

    Consider, he was likely exposed early on and without enhanced proctection, to patients before anyone understood the threat to health care workers in December or so.

    Young guy, thirties, he shrugs off the mild symptoms, if any upon initial infection. Two months later, he either relapses/reinfects and dies.

    It is almost a certainty that he was infected early, based upon what we know now about how rapidly it spreads among medical staff.

    There were lots of reports early on about a lot of deaths among relatively healthy/not old Chinese health care workers. Much of the speculation about this surmised higher viral loads as the cause of severity among Chinese health care workers but it also could be reinfection/relapse after an initial mild/asymptomatic infection.

  89. @anon
    But Comrade Mason, Boris did what the experts recommended. You remember the experts don't you?

    Florida, on the other hand, is so spread out that you can’t go anywhere on foot.

    Except on Miami Beach. Or around Tampa Bay. Or Daytona beach. Or Jax. Etc.

    Are you an expert on pandemics? Perhaps you should just leave this to the experts, like the ones who advised the British government?

    You tend to come across as rather a pompous twit, a version of Colonel Blimp. Might want to dial that back, old boy.

    Be seeing you!

    Florida, on the other hand, is so spread out that you can’t go anywhere on foot.

    Except on Miami Beach. Or around Tampa Bay. Or Daytona beach. Or Jax. Etc.

    1. Obviously there are some tourist areas like beaches and Disney World, or county fairs, fleas markets, or sports stadiums, or school and college campuses, or shopping malls, where lots of pedestrians are close together, however, as a whole, the layout of towns and cities in Florida in no way resembles New York, Boston, London, Amsterdam, Madrid, or Barcelona and, most importantly of all, the vast majority of Floridians use personal transport, not mass transit systems, so they arrive at their destination in a bubble.

    2. While it is theoretically possible for viruses to be spread through the air at beaches if people are close together, beaches are unlikely to be major sources of spread compared to enclosed spaces. It is also likely that the virus does not live long if it falls on sand, which can be extremely hot and will dry out the virus which likes a humid environment. Maximum daily temperatures in Florida are running at around 95 degrees, but the sand is much hotter. Also, the people who are very old and have multiple comorbidities are less likely to be found on beaches.

    3. Jacksonville (Jax) is not at all a pedestrian city. The only people you see on foot in the city center are the Salvation Army hostel residents. Nor is Tampa. Everything in the Tampa Bay area radiates from multi-lane highways that connect with I-75, I-275, I-4, and the East West Expressway.

    4. I am not an expert on pandemics, but I do have experience in reviewing, updating, and writing infection control policies and procedures for hospital and nursing home use, and have a couple of the standard textbooks on infection control in my home, so my knowledge is probably as good as that of most people who post here, or perhaps better in some cases.

    • Agree: Daniel Williams
  90. Herd immunity is still the plan in Sweden. Hard to say if it’s working it has a higher amount of deaths than its Scandinavian peers who are on lockdown but has around the same death rate per million as the UK.

    https://www.nytimes.com/2020/03/28/world/europe/sweden-coronavirus.html

    In fact, Sweden has stayed open for business while other nations beyond Scandinavia have attacked the outbreak with various measures ambitious in scope and reach. Sweden’s approach has raised questions about whether it’s gambling with a disease, Covid-19, that has no cure or vaccine, or if its tactic will be seen as a savvy strategy to fight a scourge that has laid waste to millions of jobs and prompted global lockdowns unprecedented in peacetime.

    By Saturday, Norway, population 5.3 million, had more than 3,770 coronavirus cases and 19 deaths; Denmark, population 5.6 million, reported 2,200 cases and 52 deaths; Sweden, with 10.12 million people, recorded more than 3,060 cases and 105 deaths.

    • Replies: @The Alarmist
    As I said elsewhere here on UR, the Swedes have chosen to live and let some die.
  91. @Buzz Mohawk
    First of all, we need to disregard any "information" that comes from China. It may be true, or it may be false. We don't know, therefore it is useless.

    Second, ventilators (and associated breathing equipment -- anything that helps people get oxygen) do save people. Furthermore, it is very likely less horrible to die if you at least have enough air in your lungs than not. Do you want yourself to die without being able to be hooked to one because there aren't enough? No, I don't think so, so STFU!

    It’s not so much a question of being hooked up but of being taken off. Doctors have a pretty good idea going in of who is going to make it in the 1st place, but OK we have a “humane” system so we hook up the 88 year old with COPD anyway to give him a fighting chance, run up the bill and prevent law suits. BUT, after you have been on there a week and still aren’t breathing on your own, the chances that ANOTHER week or three is going to help is close to nil. That’s where the insanity kicks in – don’t you dare unplug Grandpa – we’re praying for him (and ain’t payin’ for him) and we want you to do EVERYTHING to keep him with us.

    • Replies: @Buzz Mohawk
    That's a good point, well taken.

    I must say, I've been a party to three living wills, all "do not resuscitate." For two, my mother and my sister, I had to give the order not to do it. My father, the third, dropped dead in his driveway (the best way to go) so I didn't have to do anything.

    BTW I notice a black eye and some bruises. Ron beat the crap out of you. You'll get back in the ring, no doubt.
    , @HallParvey

    run up the bill
     
    Most of the money spent on medical care in this country is spent on people in the last year of their life. It pays for the maintenance of the medical/insurance/university systems.
    , @Captain Tripps

    That’s where the insanity kicks in – don’t you dare unplug Grandpa – we’re praying for him (and ain’t payin’ for him) and we want you to do EVERYTHING to keep him with us.
     
    Is it really "insanity", or more of a "dilemma"? Tens of thousands of families across the globe are wrestling with this moral/ethical issue right now. Almost no one wants to see their father/mother/grandfather/grandmother/aunt/uncle/brother/sister suffering. Taking the ventilator off dooms them to asphyxia by drowning in their fluids; as I understand it not a particularly pleasant way to go. Then again, there are very few "pleasant" ways to go anyway. We all hope to die peacefully in our sleep when we are old and have lived a good life, but the vast majority of us won't get that blessing. Most of us are doomed to experience some level of suffering before we go; I think its a testament to us as a people/species that we have evolved to a point where we CAN have the opportunity to enable our loved ones to live this long. But, to your point, we will have to find a way forward to reduce the suffering as fast as possible when deciding when the point of no return is reached; remove the ventilator and increase the morphine? Keep our loved ones in a morphine-induced light coma until the end to minimize the pain? I don't know the answer, but I'm going to have to face it in the coming years with advance aged parents/in-laws/aunts/uncles.
    , @anon
    There is something very un-flulike in the severity of this thing.

    This account from the front is another view. https://texags.com/forums/84/topics/3102444

    This doesn't look like the well known controversy over use of advanced medicine at end of life. Or maybe it is an extreme version of it -- the shock of an ER guy seeing a hundred of them in a short period.

    However many ventilators are employed, there will be many more deaths.

    The one bizarrely encouraging thing is that they are rapidly getting an enormous amount of clinical experience quite quickly.
  92. @Hypnotoad666
    Politically, "just do something" always wins in a crisis. If everything is ok in the end, they can say "our efforts avoided catastrophe." If there is a catastrophe anyway, they can say "think how much worse it would have been without our efforts."

    Doing nothing, however, is always a political loser. No matter how smart it might be, it appears you don't care. Politics is all about showing you care.

    Coolidge always said re problems that if 100 boulders are rolling down hill toward you by doing nothing 99 will miss you. Hopefully Covid not that 1 Boulder.

  93. @AnotherDad

    But other pandemics don’t require ventilators nearly as often as coronavirus does.
     

    I can certainly believe the "not as much".

    But isn't the way the flu often kills people is through pneumonia, with the cases that don't resolve easily often requiring some sort of breathing support?

    One would think there would definitely be a coefficient(s) in the model for expected rates of required breathing support of various types. You'd just plug in what you were seeing for this new Chinese coronavirus and ... "hey, this doesn't look good!"


    Maybe it's better in the UK, but my rough on what i've seen from the US public health authorities is no serious planning ever took place. (We were out of masks--masks!--on day one.) I'm sure there's "a plan", that fills a shelf a binders. But mostly we have a bunch of well paid, well pensioned time serving yutzes who would rather lecture us that quarantines don't work and we need to be on guard against racism.

    America’s death rate has been tracking Germany’s rate throughout the crisis. You’d just never know that by watching or reading the news.
    America has to be doing something right.

    • Replies: @keypusher
    America’s death rate has been tracking Germany’s rate throughout the crisis. You’d just never know that by watching or reading the news.

    Well, yes and no. Through 3/27:

    -We have half the (diagnosed) case rate of Germany (315 per million versus 607 per million) but a slightly higher death rate (5 per million versus 4 per million (versus 2 per million in China, by the way)). The world death rate is currently 3.5 per million.

    -We have a 1.6% mortality rate for diagnosed cases (1,696/104,126) versus 0.7% for Germany (351/50,871).

    https://www.worldometers.info/coronavirus/

    That said, our death rate is obviously lower than most Western European countries, especially Italy and Spain. Possible explanations:

    -more ventilators per capita
    -more ICU beds per capita
    -we're at an earlier stage in the pandemic than they are, so (i) unlike in parts of Spain and Italy, our health care systems haven't been overwhelmed (ii) a lot of sick people in the USA haven't gotten around to dying yet. Note that our rate of growth in cases is now a lot higher than Italy or Spain. https://www.ft.com/coronavirus-latest
    (scroll down to case trajectories graph).
    -virus strains not as virulent here
    -??

  94. @Thomas

    But isn’t the way the flu often kills people is through pneumonia, with the cases that don’t resolve easily often requiring some sort of breathing support?
     
    Except for H5N1 (avian influenza, the "bird flu" they always worry about leading to an eventual epidemic), flu tends to target the upper respiratory tract. SARS-CoV-2, which is causing this outbreak, targets alveolar cells deep in the lungs.

    https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Influenza#Pathophysiology
    https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Coronavirus_disease_2019#Cause

    Thomas, i get that.

    My point is that “breathing support” isn’t some kind of brand new thing to be required. So there should be coefficients in the model for “breathing support” of various types. Then you plug in the appropriate coefficients–much greater than the flu–for Covid-19 and your model should immediately tell you it’s a problem. This stuff is basic.

    “The model” isn’t one thing. If it’s going to be any good at all it has to have a bunch of parameters you set based on what the disease–or multiple diseases!–you’re dealing with.

    • Replies: @Travis
    September 24, 2009 NPR Headline
    "Virulent Swine Flu May Trigger Rationing Of Ventilators"

    https://www.npr.org/sections/health-shots/2009/09/swine_flu_could_trigger_tough.html

    September 2009, "public health officials are preparing for the worst and that means coming up with plans for who would get a ventilator and who wouldn't. Rationing of ventilators could pit the families of people with serious non-flu illnesses against those of acutely ill flu patients."

    The New York Protocol, drafted by New York public health officials in 2007 before swine flu was even on the map. Under the most serious flu scenario they contemplated, more than three-quarters of a million New Yorkers would be hospitalized and 153,000 would die. During the peak of the pandemic ventilator needs would outstrip the supply by more than 15,000.

    New York State knew they had a shortage of ventilators and hospital beds back in 2007...yet instead of adding ICU units, they closed down hospitalized and eliminated 10% of their ICU beds since Andrew Cuomo became governor 9 years ago. In 2015 New York State issued guidelines on how to ethically allocate limited resources during a severe influenza pandemic and estimated 18,619 ventilators would be needed — 15,783 more than hospitals have in their reserves. Basic medical supplies like N95 masks and face visors would be in even higher demand. Why did Governor Cuomo fail to act ? Why did Cuomo ignore the New York State report which indicated they needed more supplies back in 2015 ?

    Was Cuomo not aware of the the risk of a pandemic ? He was the attorney General of New York during the last pandemic. New Yorkers have known since 2009 that they lacked the capacity to handle a serious pandemic. Yet instead of getting prepared, they reduced the number of beds and ventilators over the last decade.
  95. Doubts surface about the good professor. It seems he has a record of wading into crises with extreme forecasts. It does seem our media has weakness for scientists who want to be Jeff Goldbloom in Jurassic Park. I suppose it’s still better than the Chinese security forces interviewing doctors in the middle of the night about their social media activities

    https://www.telegraph.co.uk/news/2020/03/28/neil-ferguson-scientist-convinced-boris-johnson-uk-coronavirus-lockdown-criticised/

  96. @Che Blutarsky
    R0 is a function of the transmission properties of the virus, which may or may not change with time as mutations happen. It is also a function of human behavior, which changes over time in a response to the progression of disease - hygiene changes, people wear masks, people keep their distance, large events are shut down, travel is restricted. It is also a function of the population density (with spread correlating more with the square of the population density than the population density). It is also a function of cultural behaviors (greeting customs) and many other things. It might also change with respect to environmental conditions.

    The death rate depends on hospitalization capacity and many facets of demographics - age, possibly ethnicity, past tobacco/alcohol/drug use, past exposure to industrial chemicals/air pollution, obesity, auto-immune disorders, etc.

    This is just to say that modelling can tell you many interesting things about a dynamic system, but it is based on many simplifying assumptions, sometimes without much data to establish the parameters, and often with approximations to take out non-linearity so that it can be solved easier. There is a limit to what models can tell you.

    Which leads to our current situation. If the country closed down two weeks ago, when can it open back up? Certainly right now we are in a worse position than then, with the number of cases still growing rapidly, with the supply chains of vital drugs and equipment still not secure. The ability to rapidly test tens of millions of people every week is quite a ways off. Any lightening of the restrictions at this point will be a signal that the original decision to take all of the measures that were taken were mistaken.

    So, what if only 5% of the population gets it this round, it fades away in the summer months, and reappears in the fall? The "herd immunity" will be minimal, except maybe in places like NYC. Do we expect to have the ability to do mass testing by then? We'll certainly be in better shape there, but will it still be sufficient? Will we have to shut everything down again? What would be the argument against it?

    I don’t disagree at all with what you wrote there, Mr. Blutarsky, but I’m not sure you understand what I wrote. See, you can come up with good numbers for “Ro”, the transmission rate, population numbers, demographics, all kinds of things, and use math that well represents the whole epidemic process. However, if you miss one other process, as “oh, the amount of ventilators is finite” and lots of others I’m sure*, the model is worthless.

    Every single actual piece of reality has got to be in the model for it to have a chance of representing reality. Otherwise it may not come close to approximating anything, barring just luck or after-the-fact fudge factors.

    .

    * Those would be, the susceptibility of different races (not mentioned much lately, but still likely some factor), the amount of travel in an out of China that previously occurred, and more that, notice I don’t know either.

  97. @PiltdownMan
    Somewhat OT:

    https://www.venteclife.com/assets/images/VOCSN-Explode---Engineered-Tough-Labels-01_1500.jpg

    Made by these nice folks, in Kokomo, IN.

    https://fs29.formsite.com/M6gPle/images/ventec_team.jpg

    https://www.venteclife.com/assets/images/accentimages/accent_gm_ventec_jobs2.jpg

    $16.67/hour if you want to apply to join them and GM in making the ventilators.

    https://gm.selectrakonline.com/Apply/Portal/Index/21?positionReqId=653&positionId=583&facilityId=277

    (d) D IVERSITY R EPORT .—The Congressional
    COVID–19 Aid Oversight Panel, in conjunction with the
    SIGTARP, shall collect diversity data from any corpora-
    tion that receives Federal aid related to COVID–19, and
    issue a report that will be made publicly available no later
    than one year after the disbursement of funds. In addition
    to any other data, the report shall include the following:
    (1) E MPLOYEE DEMOGRAPHICS .—The gender,
    race, and ethnic identity (and to the extent possible,
    results disaggregated by ethnic group) of the cor-
    poration’s employees, as otherwise known or pro-
    vided voluntarily for the total number of employees

  98. @Bernard
    Coronavirus cure: French researchers completed new additional study on 80 patients, results show a combination of Hydroxychloroquine and Azithromycin to be effective in treating COVID-19

    In 80 in-patients receiving a combination of hydroxychloroquine and azithromycin, the team found a clinical improvement in all but one 86 year-old patient who died, and one 74-year old patient still in intensive care unit. The team also found that, by administering hydroxychloroquine combined with azithromycin, they were able to observe an improvement in all cases, except in one patient who arrived with an advanced form, who was over the age of 86, and in whom the evolution was irreversible, according to a new paper published today in IHU Méditerranée Infection.

    Help is on the way.


    https://techstartups.com/2020/03/27/coronavirus-cure-new-results-french-study-shows-combination-hydroxychloroquine-plaquenil-azithromycin-successfully-treated-80-coronavirus-patients-significant-dr/

    “French researchers completed new additional study on 80 patients, results show a combination of Hydroxychloroquine and Azithromycin to be effective in treating COVID-19”

    Good news. Unfortunately many Democratic politicians are curiously uninterested.

  99. @Philip Owen
    In a paper from Wuhan, 31 out of 32 patients put on ventilators died in an environment with no shoratge of ventilators (ie even relatively healthy patients has them). Ventilators are a distraction.

    “31 out of 32 patients put on ventilators died”
    Future generations will look back and see a BoomerCaust in which 6 million entirely innocent, always altruistic, overly generous, innocent to a fault Boomers were struck down in their prime by the vicious BoomerRemover19 virus spread by evil neo-millenials wishing to use an expedited inheritance to pay off student loans and credit card debt supposedly foisted on them by the uncaring Boomer Generation. One vicious little inebriated neo-millenial twerp with hat on backwards partying at a Florida beach was heard to say: ” spreading BR19 is the only way we’ll ever own a house” and “he has heard rumours that BR19 saponifies its victims turning useless selfish old Boomer fucks into soap bars”. Expect every major city in the future to have its own BoomerCaust museum and even a Tomb of the Unknown Boomer in Washington DC so future generations will never be allowed to forget the sacrifices made by the magnificent Boomers.

  100. @Jack D
    It's not so much a question of being hooked up but of being taken off. Doctors have a pretty good idea going in of who is going to make it in the 1st place, but OK we have a "humane" system so we hook up the 88 year old with COPD anyway to give him a fighting chance, run up the bill and prevent law suits. BUT, after you have been on there a week and still aren't breathing on your own, the chances that ANOTHER week or three is going to help is close to nil. That's where the insanity kicks in - don't you dare unplug Grandpa - we're praying for him (and ain't payin' for him) and we want you to do EVERYTHING to keep him with us.

    That’s a good point, well taken.

    I must say, I’ve been a party to three living wills, all “do not resuscitate.” For two, my mother and my sister, I had to give the order not to do it. My father, the third, dropped dead in his driveway (the best way to go) so I didn’t have to do anything.

    BTW I notice a black eye and some bruises. Ron beat the crap out of you. You’ll get back in the ring, no doubt.

    • Replies: @Buffalo Joe
    Buzz, Two years ago my now 102 year old mother experienced intestinal discomfort and threw up some bile. She saw her doctor who said her gall bladder was the culprit but no surgery would be planned. A more severe attack resulted in me taking her to ER. I dropped her in the lobby, parked my car and returned to join her. In the meantime they had moved her to an ER cubby, wired her up and a young doctor told me mom had had a "Heart Attack." Well, mom has a no resuscitate clause and refused even an offer of Tylenol. She lay on her back eyes closed , arms folded across her chest in a mummy like pose. Four hours later, needing the bed, they helped mom redress and I took her back to her assisted living facility. Dead in the driveway would not have been a bad thing.
    , @nebulafox
    https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=Z2QCORi-u0U
  101. Anonguy,

    Herd immunity by infection and recovery was public policy for chickenpox before a vaccine was developed for the virus in 1995. Parents deliberately got their children infected at “pox parties,” as the infection is better contended with in youth. The best approach to defending public health and public interest depends on many factors, most obviously in the case of a new virus evaluation of its characteristics.

    The great achievements of medicine against disease and ailments over the past 120 years or so is now popularly appreciated in an expectation of the pharmaceutical industry to develop magic bullets for all our health issues. We’re apt to under-appreciate what a fantastically well-evolved asset our own body is – specifically our immune system – in the prime function of any organism of maintaining homeostasis of its systems.

    https://www.nwfdailynews.com/opinion/20200322/george-will-you-are-not-teetering-contraption

    • Replies: @Anon
    I was a child and a parent before well before 1995. There were no chickenpox parties. When my kids were young there were measles and mumps vaccines but not for chickenpox. When I and my sibs were young there were no measles mumps, measles or chickenpox vaccines.

    I and every boomer parent can tell you there were no chicken pox parties before 1995.

    Chickenpox parties were created around 2010 by hysterical liberal anti vaccine idiot women following the latest liberal fad of anti vaccine nonsense. Kathy Griffin Cher Patricia Arquette types.

    Plus women who want to blame every bit of misbehavior, bad manners, messiness, less than A grades, whatever imperfections their children have on some mysterious curse. Nowadays it’s vaccines. When we were young parents it was sugar that caused every problem. Ha ha
  102. @Redneck farmer
    More like a quarter of our taxes go to the military. Half of our taxes go to those citizens, who after decades of hard work and toil in improving our country, bitch about the results.
    The ones most vulnerable to Corona-Chan.

    More like a quarter of our taxes go to the military. Half of our taxes go to those citizens, who after decades of hard work and toil in improving our country, bitch about the results.
    The ones most vulnerable to Corona-Chan.

    I swear, i saw that guy in the mirror this morning.

  103. @Jonathan Mason
    The article makes another interesting point further down the page:

    But the other major factor seems to be density. NYC is by far the densest city in America, almost twice as dense as second-placer San Francisco. Density forces people together and makes infections spread more easily.

    Florida, on the other hand, is so spread out that you can't go anywhere on foot. Could that be a factor in the spread of the disease? Spain has densely populated cities, so does Italy, and London, where Boris Johnson and Prince Charles were infected, is also very densely populated and most people use public transportation to go to work.

    In New York everyone is using the subway and other forms of public transportation, whereas in Florida public transportation other than aircraft is almost unknown.

    Unless Florida has changed since I lived there, Florida cities all have widespread public transportation and lots of people who are too poor for car ownership to use it.

  104. Anonymous[451] • Disclaimer says:
    @vhrm

    In a paper from Wuhan, 31 out of 32 patients put on ventilators died in an environment with no shoratge of ventilators (ie even relatively healthy patients has them). Ventilators are a distraction.
     
    Another paper mentioned something like 50% i think (i don't have a reference) and that's pretty significant, if still not great.

    But whether it would make a big difference or not in terms of survival, if the shortage happens it will be a huge scandal.

    I mean as it stands i think after this the US will end up stockpiles of masks and ventilators to last 20 years. If an actual significant shortage happens we'll be up to 50 years.
    (and then the next virus will require, idk, dialysis machines or something and we'll go through this again)

    How are out ECMO gear supplies, i wonder.
    ( https://en.m.wikipedia.org/wiki/Extracorporeal_membrane_oxygenation )

    There’s no way that 50% of patients on ventilators left the hospital with a handshake for the doctor. If only 50% died, that means the other 50% were still languishing until someone ultimately pulled the plug. Where are all the people who have recovered from the ventilators? Do they give interviews?

    A guy on Twitter who has been predicting pieces of this way ahead of time says the ventilators are actually killing people more than covid by itself. VAP- ventilator assisted pneumonia was already killing up to 50% of vent patients before covid, and with covid it is close to 100.

    This should be investigated. A 95 year old woman beat the illness because she refused a ventilator.

    Twitter.com/lokijulianus

    • Replies: @Travis
    True , better to avoid getting out on a ventilator. Ventilated patients often suffer from irreversable lung damage due to the ventilator.

    It is well established that mechanical ventilation can injure the lung, producing an entity known as ventilator-induced lung injury (VILI). There are various forms of VILI, including volutrauma (i.e., injury caused by overdistending the lung), atelectrauma (injury due to repeated opening/closing of lung units), and biotrauma (release of mediators that can induce lung injury or aggravate pre-existing injury, potentially leading to multiple organ failure). Experimental data in the pediatric context are in accord with the importance of VILI, and appear to show age-related susceptibility to VILI.

    evidence suggests that ventilation causes more subtle morphological and functional changes and can excite an inflammatory response within the lung. This type of injury was not recognised for many years as the pattern of damage is often indistinguishable from that seen in other forms of lung injury such as the acute respiratory distress syndrome (ARDS).
  105. @Jonathan Mason
    The article makes another interesting point further down the page:

    But the other major factor seems to be density. NYC is by far the densest city in America, almost twice as dense as second-placer San Francisco. Density forces people together and makes infections spread more easily.

    Florida, on the other hand, is so spread out that you can't go anywhere on foot. Could that be a factor in the spread of the disease? Spain has densely populated cities, so does Italy, and London, where Boris Johnson and Prince Charles were infected, is also very densely populated and most people use public transportation to go to work.

    In New York everyone is using the subway and other forms of public transportation, whereas in Florida public transportation other than aircraft is almost unknown.

    But the other major factor seems to be density. NYC is by far the densest city in America, almost twice as dense as second-placer San Francisco. Density forces people together and makes infections spread more easily.

    Tokyo is dense. Singapore is dense. Seoul is dense. Wuhan, Shanghai, Beijing etc. are dense. Somehow they all managed to deal with this.

  106. @Philip Owen
    In a paper from Wuhan, 31 out of 32 patients put on ventilators died in an environment with no shoratge of ventilators (ie even relatively healthy patients has them). Ventilators are a distraction.

    “Ventilators are a distraction.”

    Building ventilators (and face masks) helps people feel useful. Like social distancing or wearing blue masks. Utterly silly of course, but these things bestow significance on people’s lives. CoronaHoax is a virtue-signalling smorgasbord.

  107. @El Dato
    > amoral proposition

    The universe _is_ amoral. Unless you less than 16 years old, you better get used to it.

    > capitalism

    What has that to do with anything?

    In fact, it sounds quite socialist to me.

    It's also an acceptable plan ... under certain circumstances.

    Great pithy response.

  108. @epebble

    UK had to perform a disastrous about-face
     
    But how does performing about-face resolve ventilator shortages? You can't make 30,000 ventilators tomorrow; Even if one procures 30K ventilators by magic, where will the ICU's to place them in come from? Where will the skilled nursing staff come from? PPEs for all of them? It has ClstrFck written all over it. Just like USA , which did not make any face, about or straight.

    Right you are. I retired from respiratory therapy 25 years ago and I can tell you ventilators are extremely labor intensive. If we are short 100k ventilators you can be sure we’re short at least 5k respiratory techs. That’s 20 vents per RT, which is about twice the peak load I was ever assigned.

    The vent shortage is not going to be solved; not really

  109. @Ed
    America’s death rate has been tracking Germany’s rate throughout the crisis. You’d just never know that by watching or reading the news.
    America has to be doing something right.


    https://twitter.com/steve_hanke/status/1243870954767503361?s=21


    https://twitter.com/tribelaw/status/1243627530168516614?s=21

    America’s death rate has been tracking Germany’s rate throughout the crisis. You’d just never know that by watching or reading the news.

    Well, yes and no. Through 3/27:

    -We have half the (diagnosed) case rate of Germany (315 per million versus 607 per million) but a slightly higher death rate (5 per million versus 4 per million (versus 2 per million in China, by the way)). The world death rate is currently 3.5 per million.

    -We have a 1.6% mortality rate for diagnosed cases (1,696/104,126) versus 0.7% for Germany (351/50,871).

    https://www.worldometers.info/coronavirus/

    That said, our death rate is obviously lower than most Western European countries, especially Italy and Spain. Possible explanations:

    -more ventilators per capita
    -more ICU beds per capita
    -we’re at an earlier stage in the pandemic than they are, so (i) unlike in parts of Spain and Italy, our health care systems haven’t been overwhelmed (ii) a lot of sick people in the USA haven’t gotten around to dying yet. Note that our rate of growth in cases is now a lot higher than Italy or Spain. https://www.ft.com/coronavirus-latest
    (scroll down to case trajectories graph).
    -virus strains not as virulent here
    -??

    • Replies: @Anonymous Jew
    It may all come down to a country’s ability (and willingness) to count the actual number of infected. Italy may actually have the same death rate as Germany:

    https://www.google.com/amp/s/www.wsj.com/amp/articles/is-the-coronavirus-as-deadly-as-they-say-11585088464

    As a side note, this is why it’s too early to measure racial susceptibility. You have to account for not just the numbers mentioned in the article but also demographics, co-morbidity, cultural health habits (smoking, obesity etc). I’m all about HBD and it’s obvious there are racial differences in everything, but you need good data first. Otherwise you just discredit the HBD angle.
    , @Daniel Williams

    That said, our death rate is obviously lower than most Western European countries, especially Italy and Spain.
     
    Are old people in those nations banished to reservations (like ours are in the United States) or are they able to mingle freely among the young and asymptomatic?
    , @Ed
    Differential in cases is increasingly a function of different testing levels in countries. Here in the USA testing is ramping up while doctors are telling people don’t come to the hospital unless your symptoms become more severe.

    Hospitalization and deaths seems like a better comparison point and here the USA compares favorably to much of the world.
    , @Haruto Rat

    That said, our death rate is obviously lower than most Western European countries, especially Italy and Spain. Possible explanations:
     
    As far as I can tell, last two or three flu seasons have been quite mild in Europe, leading to more people living overtime.

    (It's hard to get any numerical data - all those "flu watches" only offer colored maps suitable for a five-year old, or journalists; see the winter peaks on EuroMOMO charts though.)
  110. @RichardTaylor
    Did we establish that something went "wrong" with the original UK plan?

    Deaths simply aren't piling up the way the hysterical people predicted. Is it really distinguishable from regular flu season? Clearly, not as bad as the 1968 Hong Kong flu.

    Are spaz-geek nerds just power tripping over their ability to shut the world down?

    Any female doctor in the NHS will be suffering from Boris Derangement Syndrome and will post hysterical attacks saying that whatever he did was wrong

    • Replies: @UK
    The female NHS doctors I know are now actually quite sympathetic towards him and warm in feeling. This was not really the case before though to be fair.
  111. One country’s coronavirus situation that isn’t being discussed much in the media is that of Russia. Is it genuinely low in cases or just under reported? They have about 1000 cases now, but several days ago was said to have less cases than Luxembourg. If that’s true, that’s pretty good for a country with a 2500 mile border with China. The media hates nationalistic Russia so much that they can’t bring themselves to present it in a positive light.

  112. @PiltdownMan
    Somewhat OT:

    https://www.venteclife.com/assets/images/VOCSN-Explode---Engineered-Tough-Labels-01_1500.jpg

    Made by these nice folks, in Kokomo, IN.

    https://fs29.formsite.com/M6gPle/images/ventec_team.jpg

    https://www.venteclife.com/assets/images/accentimages/accent_gm_ventec_jobs2.jpg

    $16.67/hour if you want to apply to join them and GM in making the ventilators.

    https://gm.selectrakonline.com/Apply/Portal/Index/21?positionReqId=653&positionId=583&facilityId=277

    This is the well publicized VOCIN portable device that Trump is feuding with GM over.

    https://www.venteclife.com/page/resources

  113. @Achmed E. Newman

    Our ruling class collectively wet their pants, spent two trillion dollars, disrupted millions of lives, and plunged us into the final bread and circuses phase of our tottering imperium, ...
     
    You nailed it right there. That's the main thing for them, having big bucks to dole out, hence enormous power. It's the Socialists 9/11.

    I don’t suppose anyone will mention that the biggest ClstrFck that negatively impacted our ability to deal with the Virus was a failure of centralized government. A national agency, the CDC, botched the test kit and another national agency, the FDA, had the power to keep anyone else from giving it a go.

    It might have made a difference, it might not, but it was a total fail that is the fault of relying on a centralized government response. Billions of dollars spent over decades, all for naught. Big national government – bad!

  114. @JohnnyWalker123
    Neither has Holland.

    https://twitter.com/SPIEGEL_English/status/1243453473141608449

    The corona is growing quite fast in the Netherlands (more than 10% in cases each day), I think they would be backtracking very soon

  115. Everything that is wrong with Britain is summed up in this one regulation. I laughed at this at first but after a while I realized how pathetic it is that a government feels it is necessary to make such a statement. How must they view the intelligence level of it’s citizens?

    From the UK Coronavirus Regulations 2020:

    “Reg 6(2)(m) – to avoid injury, e.g. if your house is on fire you don’t have to stay inside it. 20/24”

    https://threadreaderapp.com/thread/1243471335700992000.html

    Some very sobering thoughts from the frontline:

    “I am an ER MD in New Orleans. Class of 98. Every one of my colleagues have now seen several hundred Covid 19 patients and this is what I think I know.”

    https://texags.com/forums/84/topics/3102444

    • Thanks: danand, anonguy
    • Replies: @keypusher
    Thanks for texags link. Lots of the terminology was over my head but what I could understand was daunting (though consistent with what other doctors are saying).

    I wouldn't wish covid on anyone. But damn, some of the posters on this thread are tempting me. Not the "let's not destroy our economy" types -- that's a sensible thing to say. The "this is a hoax" types.
    , @anon
    Jill: Sobering indeed

    “I am an ER MD in New Orleans. Class of 98. Every one of my colleagues have now seen several hundred Covid 19 patients and this is what I think I know.”

    Day 10- Cytokine storm leading to acute ARDS and multiorgan failure. You can literally watch it happen in a matter of hours.

     

    https://texags.com/forums/84/topics/3102444
     
    We aren't doing containment.
    , @BenKenobi
    https://i.kym-cdn.com/photos/images/newsfeed/001/284/339/31a.jpg
    , @HA
    "https://texags.com/forums/84/topics/3102444"

    Note this paragraph, of particular interest to hydroxychloroquine enthusiasts:


    Plaquenil [i.e. hydroxychloroquine ] which has weak ACE2 blockade doesn't appear to be a savior of any kind in our patient population. Theoretically, it may have some prophylactic properties but so far it is difficult to see the benefit to our hospitalized patients, but we are using it and the studies will tell. With Plaquenil's potential QT prolongation and liver toxic effects (both particularly problematic in covid 19 patients), I am not longer selectively prescribing this medication as I stated on a previous post.
     
    "QT prolongation" stands for "messing with your heart pumping cycle" (to put it crudely).
  116. @Achmed E. Newman
    That's often the problem with mathematical models. You may have all the physics and math down right and have a good handle on the initial conditions, boundary conditions, and constraints. If you leave out one unforeseen physical process (or in this case logistical), the whole thing is garbage. This is why I've said for 5 years or more "There is no working mathematical model of the whole Earth's climate, dammit!'

    the whole thing is garbage

    GIGO. In computeresse, that’s garbage in, garbage out.

  117. @but an humble craftsman
    On march 7th, I returned home, sharing a desk in the dining car with a woman in her late thirties who explained to me that supervising borders was impossible in our globalized times. When I tried to explain my pre-Schengen experiences to her - at one point during my studies I had to cross that border several times a day - I was told that not understanding the non-feasibility of border controls was a generational thing.

    Monday the week after that, all the Rhine crossings between Elsaß and Baden were closed - for the first time in two generations. And I mean closed as in closed, not the you-might-need-to-show-your-papers thing I grew up with which they call "closed borders" these days.

    Quite efficiently, too. While they are replaying Bergamo west of the Rhine, it is still calm on the eastern side.

    Young people are in for a surprise on how fragile our globalized society is (and things they take for granted, like global travel). A virus that is not THAT deadly (less than 30,000 dead so far in a world of 7 billion people) and everything is turned upside down, with a third of the planet under house arrest

  118. What changed? Partly the international epidemic shifted from Asia (which has immigrant communities and transportation links on the West Coast) to Italy and Europe (which have immigrant communities and transportation links on the East Coast). Partly the West Coast had some good policy whereas New York had terrible policy (while California was instituting shelter-in-place, Governor Cuomo was vetoing NYC’s shelter-in-place order and later griping about the term shelter-in-place’s etymology).

    Maybe Scott is a bit of an out of touch West Coaster but there really aren’t too large immigrant communities from Italy in the East Coast anymore, their descendants yes, but the familial links back to their homelands were broken and few Italian-Americans trace much of any link to Lombardy. America really hasn’t been much of a land of opportunity for anyone from a first world country for a long time.

    The outbreak in the US seems to have been mediated by religious practices among Orthodox Jews and spread through their social network such as schools. Additionally the outbreak was mediated in the West by rich tourists, principally skiers.

    Cuomo even sent the army to lockdown the town of New Rochelle whose synagogue seems to have been the core of the spread. When I say lockdown, I mean you can’t even get your own food, the army bring it to you.

    I’m still shocked the US didn’t immediately shut down direct flights from Milan on Feb 26th when it was immediately clear the outbreak in Lombardy was out of control.

    • Replies: @peterike

    The outbreak in the US seems to have been mediated by religious practices among Orthodox Jews and spread through their social network such as schools.
     
    Interesting that Mayor DeBlasio refuses to release neighborhood level virus stats for total numbers infected (only percentages of those tested). It might lead to some unfortunate noticing is my guess.
    , @Dieter Kief

    I’m still shocked the US didn’t immediately shut down direct flights from Milan on Feb 26th when it was immediately clear the outbreak in Lombardy was out of control.
     
    Same big mistake here in Germany. - I'd call this one Merkel2.
    , @Anonymous
    When a country is failing, its elites and their hangers-on start to steal in a sort of mad orgy, in which stealing as quickly and as much as possible is the only winning strategy. COVID-1 is not going to stop this process; it will accelerate this process.
    , @Jack D

    Italy and Europe (which have immigrant communities and transportation links on the East Coast)
     
    I agree that the traditional type of "huddled masses" immigrant from Europe is largely elderly if not extinct except for a few stragglers such as Albania. There are a few younger folks from poorer parts of Southern Italy and Greece but not many. For people who are within the EU, it's much easier for these folks to move to richer EU countries nowadays (just get on a plane - it's about as hard as moving from Cleveland to Kansas City) than it is for them to get thru the immigration hurdles for the US. Millions of Latinos just stroll across the border but for white people who want to be here legally there is lots and lots of paperwork and waiting lists and so on.

    These types of immigrants don't travel much to begin with - maybe they visit the Old Country for Christmas once every few years. However, there were plenty of jet setting globe trotters going back and forth between Milano and NY - people in fashion, people in banking, students, skiers, tourists, etc. This is an epidemic that started (in the West) mainly with the rich and famous - it strikes princes and prime ministers.
    , @Reg Cæsar

    ...and few Italian-Americans trace much of any link to Lombardy.
     
    But those in South America may. It was North Italy > South America, and South Italy > North America.
    , @epebble

    religious practices
     
    What is this, besides being huddled around something, and may be kissing the same object? I am not aware of anything like sharing a drink from same cup. I know there may be some singing and dancing in close quarters, but these are all way, way worse in a bar or club where it is dark and people have even fewer inhibitions about personal space.
  119. @but an humble craftsman
    Those people lost the largest empire in human history by twice mistaking which one of their rivals was the serious threat and still celebrate their double triumph --you do not seriously expect them to think things through, do you?

    I presume you mean Russia/USSR, but I’m thinking a different rival and that they lost their opportunity between 1861-65.

    • Replies: @BB753
    Here's my take:
    WWI: wrong threat: Germany - real threat : USA
    WWII: wrong threat: Germany--Real threat: USSR and USA.
    , @Old Palo Altan
    No, he must mean the one I presume you mean: Germany.

    Ludicrously, all Brits with any influence unthinkingly accept and fanatically demand also that you and I accept without argument that the defeat of Germany in 1918 and again in 1945 were moments of great triumph, both of arms and of some higher morality, against a dangerous foe, one ravenous for British goods and Empire.

    But Germany was neither of these things, and bounced back ferociously from 1933 and again, more carefully, but with more lasting effect from the mid 1950s, while "victorious" Britain first effectively ceded its Empire to the USA after 1918 and then liquidated it completely after 1945.

    Neither the Kaiser nor the Fuehrer had ever either worked for or desired such a result, disastrous as they both knew it would be for civilisation and the white race.

    But Wilson and Roosevelt? Another story.

    , @but an humble craftsman
    Actually they instigated two world wars.
    Which they won.
    Sort of.
  120. @Jack D
    It's not so much a question of being hooked up but of being taken off. Doctors have a pretty good idea going in of who is going to make it in the 1st place, but OK we have a "humane" system so we hook up the 88 year old with COPD anyway to give him a fighting chance, run up the bill and prevent law suits. BUT, after you have been on there a week and still aren't breathing on your own, the chances that ANOTHER week or three is going to help is close to nil. That's where the insanity kicks in - don't you dare unplug Grandpa - we're praying for him (and ain't payin' for him) and we want you to do EVERYTHING to keep him with us.

    run up the bill

    Most of the money spent on medical care in this country is spent on people in the last year of their life. It pays for the maintenance of the medical/insurance/university systems.

  121. @Che Blutarsky

    I wonder if a field that really needs the best people only once every decade or so can even attract the people it needs.
     
    When the cream of the quantitative sciences are going into the parasitical field of finance, in order to optimize "financial engineering" mechanisms that squeeze money out of the productive sector and add no real value, your society is nearing its end stage.

    That is a good point. Coastal America could be brain-draining the flyover states just like immigration restrictionists say that U.S. immigration policy is brain-draining the third world by offering preferential status to highly educated applicants.

    That’s a fascinating thought: a guy who would have made a great doctor in his hometown in West Virginia or Nebraska instead becomes a Master of the Universe in NYC or Connecticut.

    I wonder how often that actually happens? From what I read here, it seems like a lot of those guys are overlooked by the elite college admissions machine. But still…

    • Replies: @Anon
    It’s my opinion that since college admissions and jobs are so discriminatory against White American men, there is no brain drain from flyover country to the coasts.

    I still remember the denial letters to one of my brothers from medical schools. He was denied admission because of “ judicial constraints” . That’s the various Supreme Court judicial orders mandating affirmative action for all but Whites. The constraints they referred to were probably Kaiser vs Weber 1979.

    A nephew is a Dr. he’s in his mid 30s. He went to med school in Ireland. English language, 5 year program starting upon graduation from high school. The program included all the clinical training. The 5th year is the internship. Take the licensing exam and they’re physicians at 23,24 instead of of 30. If they want to specialize it’s a residency but at least they’re earning a decent wage during the residency.

    He didn’t bother applying in England although the program is the same. English medical schools seem to accept only black brown and tan people. The English med school
    Admissions people fly all over Africa, Asia. Mid East the entire third & fifth world recruiting and interviewing.

    I went to college with the White American men who created Silicone n Valley and the computer age. By 1990 they were lucky to have jobs as high school math teachers. Where they were racially harassed by black women administrators with LOL, masters and PhDs in education and IQs of 95.

    I believe the top 20 colleges like to have one, just one student from each flyover deplorable state.

    Considering the ACT SAT and public school ratings from Iowa, Nebraska, even W Virginia, it’s obvious top 100 college admissions practices severe discrimination against Whites.
    , @anonguy
    Washington DC is filled with people like this.

    Hollywood for ugly people, they call it.
  122. @Bernard
    Coronavirus cure: French researchers completed new additional study on 80 patients, results show a combination of Hydroxychloroquine and Azithromycin to be effective in treating COVID-19

    In 80 in-patients receiving a combination of hydroxychloroquine and azithromycin, the team found a clinical improvement in all but one 86 year-old patient who died, and one 74-year old patient still in intensive care unit. The team also found that, by administering hydroxychloroquine combined with azithromycin, they were able to observe an improvement in all cases, except in one patient who arrived with an advanced form, who was over the age of 86, and in whom the evolution was irreversible, according to a new paper published today in IHU Méditerranée Infection.

    Help is on the way.


    https://techstartups.com/2020/03/27/coronavirus-cure-new-results-french-study-shows-combination-hydroxychloroquine-plaquenil-azithromycin-successfully-treated-80-coronavirus-patients-significant-dr/

    Wait for a deluge of articles about aquarium cleaner (and lupus patients rotting on the vine) to push that article far, far down the search engine results.

  123. @anonguy
    Herd immunity, without cure or vaccine, is unironically natural selection with a different name.

    It was a shockingly amoral proposition, that it could even be discussed is evidence much far soulless, sociopathic capitalism has become the cultural norm.

    I’m betting (literally with my friends!) that Boris (and Trump) had it right initially—this is just another flu epidemic, albeit a particularly nasty one—but were talked out of it by all the “experts” (including Fauci) coming down on them so hard. If so, then Cochran, Jay Man, Razib, hbdchick, and a lot of other smart people whose opinion I generally respect are going to end up with egg on their faces. We’ll see.

    • Agree: Dano
    • Replies: @Luke Lea
    The Precautionary Principle (i.e. fallacy) in action.
  124. This story is pretty instructive: The Top 10 Lies About President Trump’s Response to the Coronavirus.

    A good summary for your Liberal friends on Facebook, and instructive even to many here who repeat some of the lies refuted in the article. Corvinus better not read it though as it could make him cry.

    https://pjmedia.com/trending/the-top-10-lies-about-president-trumps-response-to-the-coronavirus/

    • Thanks: res
  125. @Altai

    What changed? Partly the international epidemic shifted from Asia (which has immigrant communities and transportation links on the West Coast) to Italy and Europe (which have immigrant communities and transportation links on the East Coast). Partly the West Coast had some good policy whereas New York had terrible policy (while California was instituting shelter-in-place, Governor Cuomo was vetoing NYC’s shelter-in-place order and later griping about the term shelter-in-place’s etymology).
     
    Maybe Scott is a bit of an out of touch West Coaster but there really aren't too large immigrant communities from Italy in the East Coast anymore, their descendants yes, but the familial links back to their homelands were broken and few Italian-Americans trace much of any link to Lombardy. America really hasn't been much of a land of opportunity for anyone from a first world country for a long time.

    The outbreak in the US seems to have been mediated by religious practices among Orthodox Jews and spread through their social network such as schools. Additionally the outbreak was mediated in the West by rich tourists, principally skiers.

    Cuomo even sent the army to lockdown the town of New Rochelle whose synagogue seems to have been the core of the spread. When I say lockdown, I mean you can't even get your own food, the army bring it to you.

    I'm still shocked the US didn't immediately shut down direct flights from Milan on Feb 26th when it was immediately clear the outbreak in Lombardy was out of control.

    The outbreak in the US seems to have been mediated by religious practices among Orthodox Jews and spread through their social network such as schools.

    Interesting that Mayor DeBlasio refuses to release neighborhood level virus stats for total numbers infected (only percentages of those tested). It might lead to some unfortunate noticing is my guess.

  126. @Luke Lea
    I'm betting (literally with my friends!) that Boris (and Trump) had it right initially—this is just another flu epidemic, albeit a particularly nasty one—but were talked out of it by all the "experts" (including Fauci) coming down on them so hard. If so, then Cochran, Jay Man, Razib, hbdchick, and a lot of other smart people whose opinion I generally respect are going to end up with egg on their faces. We'll see.

    The Precautionary Principle (i.e. fallacy) in action.

  127. @RichardTaylor
    Did we establish that something went "wrong" with the original UK plan?

    Deaths simply aren't piling up the way the hysterical people predicted. Is it really distinguishable from regular flu season? Clearly, not as bad as the 1968 Hong Kong flu.

    Are spaz-geek nerds just power tripping over their ability to shut the world down?

    Deaths simply aren’t piling up the way the hysterical people predicted.

    As I keep saying – show me bodies stacked like cordwood and smoldering corpse pyramids during Cuomo’s pressers and the 5 o’clock news or stop the mass hysteria.

    • Replies: @The Alarmist
    But ... but... but ... we really need to be afraid ... they have a lineup of morgue reefer trucks.


    https://images.thestar.com/FN63KdKg6uT1qeLVJC0jtnRbhv4=/1086x724/smart/filters:cb(1585186404863)/https://www.thestar.com/content/dam/thestar/news/world/2020/03/25/nyc-builds-massive-makeshift-morgue-for-potential-covid-19-deaths/us_news_coronavirus_nyc_morgue_get.jpg


    Yeah, I agree. I'll know the SHRHTF when they are burning piles of corpses in the streets and in town squares.

  128. @Redneck farmer
    We have social media now. And perhaps worse yet, the ability to keep people alive longer.

    And perhaps worse yet, the ability to keep people alive longer.

    And make record profits along the way!

    Thanks Big Pharma and Big Insurance!

  129. anon[559] • Disclaimer says:
    @Philip Owen
    In a paper from Wuhan, 31 out of 32 patients put on ventilators died in an environment with no shoratge of ventilators (ie even relatively healthy patients has them). Ventilators are a distraction.

    Ventilators are the last thing that is done. What you want is the maximum non invasive breathing support possible, which amounts to pure oxygen under some sort of pressure. Look it up on line if you are curious.

    The death rate on full ventilation depends on who you put on it. If you are only using it for the most serious, near death patients, they are going to mostly die.

    If you are using it on a mix of patients, you get mixed results. Etc.

  130. You bought the world’s most sophisticated hammer, so everything looks like a nail, even when it turns out to be nitroglycerin.

  131. @Altai

    What changed? Partly the international epidemic shifted from Asia (which has immigrant communities and transportation links on the West Coast) to Italy and Europe (which have immigrant communities and transportation links on the East Coast). Partly the West Coast had some good policy whereas New York had terrible policy (while California was instituting shelter-in-place, Governor Cuomo was vetoing NYC’s shelter-in-place order and later griping about the term shelter-in-place’s etymology).
     
    Maybe Scott is a bit of an out of touch West Coaster but there really aren't too large immigrant communities from Italy in the East Coast anymore, their descendants yes, but the familial links back to their homelands were broken and few Italian-Americans trace much of any link to Lombardy. America really hasn't been much of a land of opportunity for anyone from a first world country for a long time.

    The outbreak in the US seems to have been mediated by religious practices among Orthodox Jews and spread through their social network such as schools. Additionally the outbreak was mediated in the West by rich tourists, principally skiers.

    Cuomo even sent the army to lockdown the town of New Rochelle whose synagogue seems to have been the core of the spread. When I say lockdown, I mean you can't even get your own food, the army bring it to you.

    I'm still shocked the US didn't immediately shut down direct flights from Milan on Feb 26th when it was immediately clear the outbreak in Lombardy was out of control.

    I’m still shocked the US didn’t immediately shut down direct flights from Milan on Feb 26th when it was immediately clear the outbreak in Lombardy was out of control.

    Same big mistake here in Germany. – I’d call this one Merkel2.

  132. @epebble

    UK had to perform a disastrous about-face
     
    But how does performing about-face resolve ventilator shortages? You can't make 30,000 ventilators tomorrow; Even if one procures 30K ventilators by magic, where will the ICU's to place them in come from? Where will the skilled nursing staff come from? PPEs for all of them? It has ClstrFck written all over it. Just like USA , which did not make any face, about or straight.

    It will resolve ventilator shortages by flattening the curve so that fewer people will need the ventilators at any one time.

    The herd immunity strategy was based on controlling infection rates so that the medical system would not be overwhelmed (and in controlling the demographics of infection so that the greatest number of people from the least vulnerable populations would be infected so that they could become immune to carrying the disease later). If the hospitalization rate is higher than predicted, infection rates must be kept lower.

    More to the point, if the disease is more dangerous to young people than previously thought, or if the death rate is high even with the maximum hospital intervention, the herd immunity strategy may not work well.

    Herd immunity is really designed for a disease where there are populations for whom the disease is not a big deal (quarantine everyone else, get them all infected now and they will be barriers to disease transmission in the future) or in which medical intervention is a big factor in survival (keep transmission rates to vulnerable populations to where there will be enough hospital beds, ventilators, etc. for everyone who needs one). Otherwise, it is no more effective than doing nothing.

    • Replies: @Enochian
    The key word here is control. There's not much evidence that any country outside of East Asia has any control over this thing, and until they do this 'herd immunity' stuff is just an epidemiologist's power fantasy.
    , @dfordoom

    the herd immunity strategy may not work well.
     
    The herd immunity strategy might also not work if getting COVID-19 does not make you immune. There seems to be very little evidence that getting the disease confers long-term immunity. Maybe the geniuses promoting herd immunity should have checked that one basic fact first.
  133. @Anonymous
    I've often wondered whether it was some type of exceptionally virulent and rapidly mutating nasty strain of virus - rather than a massive meteorite - which doomed the dinosaurs.
    After all, it wasn't a sudden mass die off, but rather a slow lingering decline over millions of years.

    Did you miss the Chicxulub crater discovery?

  134. “this is just another flu epidemic”. But, that phrase suggests there is a predictable set of boundaries to a flu epidemic.

  135. Anonymous[307] • Disclaimer says:
    @Altai

    What changed? Partly the international epidemic shifted from Asia (which has immigrant communities and transportation links on the West Coast) to Italy and Europe (which have immigrant communities and transportation links on the East Coast). Partly the West Coast had some good policy whereas New York had terrible policy (while California was instituting shelter-in-place, Governor Cuomo was vetoing NYC’s shelter-in-place order and later griping about the term shelter-in-place’s etymology).
     
    Maybe Scott is a bit of an out of touch West Coaster but there really aren't too large immigrant communities from Italy in the East Coast anymore, their descendants yes, but the familial links back to their homelands were broken and few Italian-Americans trace much of any link to Lombardy. America really hasn't been much of a land of opportunity for anyone from a first world country for a long time.

    The outbreak in the US seems to have been mediated by religious practices among Orthodox Jews and spread through their social network such as schools. Additionally the outbreak was mediated in the West by rich tourists, principally skiers.

    Cuomo even sent the army to lockdown the town of New Rochelle whose synagogue seems to have been the core of the spread. When I say lockdown, I mean you can't even get your own food, the army bring it to you.

    I'm still shocked the US didn't immediately shut down direct flights from Milan on Feb 26th when it was immediately clear the outbreak in Lombardy was out of control.

    When a country is failing, its elites and their hangers-on start to steal in a sort of mad orgy, in which stealing as quickly and as much as possible is the only winning strategy. COVID-1 is not going to stop this process; it will accelerate this process.

  136. @Almost Missouri
    Agree, but instead of "double triumph", you should call it "double mistake".

    I forgot the quotation marks, sorry for that.

  137. @Jack D
    It's not so much a question of being hooked up but of being taken off. Doctors have a pretty good idea going in of who is going to make it in the 1st place, but OK we have a "humane" system so we hook up the 88 year old with COPD anyway to give him a fighting chance, run up the bill and prevent law suits. BUT, after you have been on there a week and still aren't breathing on your own, the chances that ANOTHER week or three is going to help is close to nil. That's where the insanity kicks in - don't you dare unplug Grandpa - we're praying for him (and ain't payin' for him) and we want you to do EVERYTHING to keep him with us.

    That’s where the insanity kicks in – don’t you dare unplug Grandpa – we’re praying for him (and ain’t payin’ for him) and we want you to do EVERYTHING to keep him with us.

    Is it really “insanity“, or more of a “dilemma”? Tens of thousands of families across the globe are wrestling with this moral/ethical issue right now. Almost no one wants to see their father/mother/grandfather/grandmother/aunt/uncle/brother/sister suffering. Taking the ventilator off dooms them to asphyxia by drowning in their fluids; as I understand it not a particularly pleasant way to go. Then again, there are very few “pleasant” ways to go anyway. We all hope to die peacefully in our sleep when we are old and have lived a good life, but the vast majority of us won’t get that blessing. Most of us are doomed to experience some level of suffering before we go; I think its a testament to us as a people/species that we have evolved to a point where we CAN have the opportunity to enable our loved ones to live this long. But, to your point, we will have to find a way forward to reduce the suffering as fast as possible when deciding when the point of no return is reached; remove the ventilator and increase the morphine? Keep our loved ones in a morphine-induced light coma until the end to minimize the pain? I don’t know the answer, but I’m going to have to face it in the coming years with advance aged parents/in-laws/aunts/uncles.

    • Replies: @Jack D
    Once upon a time, death was more common and most people had experience with it. Parents would lose young children, spouses, etc. and often more than once. One of the blessings of our age is that many of us can reach adulthood without death touching anyone close to us, but the flip side of this is that it leaves many of us unfamiliar with the process (and yes, for many people death is a process and not a sudden occurrence). The basic outlines of that process are shared by most humans and indeed most animals so it is well understood by those who are initiated into its mysteries either thru bitter experience or by occupation. If you are lucky, there will be knowledgeable people around to guide you when someday you are forced to confront such a situation. Certainly having morphine around to grease the rails as we slip off this mortal coil can ease unnecessary suffering.
  138. @Bert
    The Chinese provided a model to the world for how to suppress the epidemic without much loss of life or long term economic disruption. Because the U.S. is, at all socioecomic and political levels, full of dumbasses like you, it will suffer thousands of deaths and severe economic turmoil. BTW, in Spain physicians are treating hopeless cases with sedatives to take care of the pain you are afraid of. My father died breathless from ischemic heart disease. He was man enough to do that calmly. You would not be.

    Gee Bert, you sound like a great guy. Thanks! You believe whatever comes from the communist Chinese government, yet you doubt what comes from mine. Okay. On what do you base such difference in your certainty? I don’t have much credence in mine, but I am knowledgeable enough to know not to have a different view of others. My wife grew up under a communist dictatorship, so I have learned some first-hand accounts of what that is like. What is your basis for your faith in the Chinese communist government?

  139. @Altai

    What changed? Partly the international epidemic shifted from Asia (which has immigrant communities and transportation links on the West Coast) to Italy and Europe (which have immigrant communities and transportation links on the East Coast). Partly the West Coast had some good policy whereas New York had terrible policy (while California was instituting shelter-in-place, Governor Cuomo was vetoing NYC’s shelter-in-place order and later griping about the term shelter-in-place’s etymology).
     
    Maybe Scott is a bit of an out of touch West Coaster but there really aren't too large immigrant communities from Italy in the East Coast anymore, their descendants yes, but the familial links back to their homelands were broken and few Italian-Americans trace much of any link to Lombardy. America really hasn't been much of a land of opportunity for anyone from a first world country for a long time.

    The outbreak in the US seems to have been mediated by religious practices among Orthodox Jews and spread through their social network such as schools. Additionally the outbreak was mediated in the West by rich tourists, principally skiers.

    Cuomo even sent the army to lockdown the town of New Rochelle whose synagogue seems to have been the core of the spread. When I say lockdown, I mean you can't even get your own food, the army bring it to you.

    I'm still shocked the US didn't immediately shut down direct flights from Milan on Feb 26th when it was immediately clear the outbreak in Lombardy was out of control.

    Italy and Europe (which have immigrant communities and transportation links on the East Coast)

    I agree that the traditional type of “huddled masses” immigrant from Europe is largely elderly if not extinct except for a few stragglers such as Albania. There are a few younger folks from poorer parts of Southern Italy and Greece but not many. For people who are within the EU, it’s much easier for these folks to move to richer EU countries nowadays (just get on a plane – it’s about as hard as moving from Cleveland to Kansas City) than it is for them to get thru the immigration hurdles for the US. Millions of Latinos just stroll across the border but for white people who want to be here legally there is lots and lots of paperwork and waiting lists and so on.

    These types of immigrants don’t travel much to begin with – maybe they visit the Old Country for Christmas once every few years. However, there were plenty of jet setting globe trotters going back and forth between Milano and NY – people in fashion, people in banking, students, skiers, tourists, etc. This is an epidemic that started (in the West) mainly with the rich and famous – it strikes princes and prime ministers.

  140. @keypusher
    America’s death rate has been tracking Germany’s rate throughout the crisis. You’d just never know that by watching or reading the news.

    Well, yes and no. Through 3/27:

    -We have half the (diagnosed) case rate of Germany (315 per million versus 607 per million) but a slightly higher death rate (5 per million versus 4 per million (versus 2 per million in China, by the way)). The world death rate is currently 3.5 per million.

    -We have a 1.6% mortality rate for diagnosed cases (1,696/104,126) versus 0.7% for Germany (351/50,871).

    https://www.worldometers.info/coronavirus/

    That said, our death rate is obviously lower than most Western European countries, especially Italy and Spain. Possible explanations:

    -more ventilators per capita
    -more ICU beds per capita
    -we're at an earlier stage in the pandemic than they are, so (i) unlike in parts of Spain and Italy, our health care systems haven't been overwhelmed (ii) a lot of sick people in the USA haven't gotten around to dying yet. Note that our rate of growth in cases is now a lot higher than Italy or Spain. https://www.ft.com/coronavirus-latest
    (scroll down to case trajectories graph).
    -virus strains not as virulent here
    -??

    It may all come down to a country’s ability (and willingness) to count the actual number of infected. Italy may actually have the same death rate as Germany:

    https://www.google.com/amp/s/www.wsj.com/amp/articles/is-the-coronavirus-as-deadly-as-they-say-11585088464

    As a side note, this is why it’s too early to measure racial susceptibility. You have to account for not just the numbers mentioned in the article but also demographics, co-morbidity, cultural health habits (smoking, obesity etc). I’m all about HBD and it’s obvious there are racial differences in everything, but you need good data first. Otherwise you just discredit the HBD angle.

    • Replies: @Steve Sailer
    HBD works best with decades of data, both formal and informal, for patterns that tend to be ignored by respectable discourse for obviously political reasons (e.g., sprinters). HBD should NOT be expected to work well with wholly novel situations.
  141. @Anon7
    “...we have a bunch of well paid, well pensioned time serving yutzes who would rather lecture us that quarantines don’t work and we need to be on guard against racism.”

    I wonder if a field that really needs the best people only once every decade or so can even attract the people it needs. Also, Public Health school graduates are overwhelmingly female now, so not just racism.

    I wonder if we’ll ever find out the names of the team that botched the Covid-19 test kit rollout. Probably not, but it’s possible that it wouldn’t have mattered.

    By mid-January, it’s probable that Covid had already been seeded in dozens of US cities by visitors from all over the world. That’s when the two key differences between Covid and the flu really kicked in. Infected people shed live virus for days before they had symptoms, and a far higher percentage of sick people need hospitalization.

    There’s a reason CDC is headquartered in Atlanta. It’s to employ hordes of idiot lazy surly black women.

  142. @Bert
    Chinese published data indicate that anyone sick enough to need artificial ventilation does not survive after being put on a ventilator. So like most things the U.S. has done in response to the epidemic, this manufacturing effort makes no sense. If all persons over 65 years of age had been legally required to sequester themselves on March 1st (when I did), the worsening crisis would have been avoided. That would have allowed the Hammer and Dance approach to have been applied, and herd immunity would be developing with little distruption to economic life or to the functionality of hospitals.

    good point about ventilators…they do not save lives, they merely delay death by 12 days. This was also observed during theH1N1 pandemic in 2009.

    With swine flu the majority of those put on a ventilator died.
    Mortality was 74% among ventilated patients for H1N1.
    https://www.ncbi.nlm.nih.gov/pmc/articles/PMC3275972/

    • Replies: @dfordoom

    good point about ventilators…they do not save lives, they merely delay death by 12 days.
     
    Maybe the authorities should be worrying more about mass producing masks (which at least seem to have some efficacy) rather than obsessing about ventilators.
  143. @jill
    Everything that is wrong with Britain is summed up in this one regulation. I laughed at this at first but after a while I realized how pathetic it is that a government feels it is necessary to make such a statement. How must they view the intelligence level of it’s citizens?

    From the UK Coronavirus Regulations 2020:

    “Reg 6(2)(m) – to avoid injury, e.g. if your house is on fire you don’t have to stay inside it. 20/24”

    https://threadreaderapp.com/thread/1243471335700992000.html

    Some very sobering thoughts from the frontline:

    “I am an ER MD in New Orleans. Class of 98. Every one of my colleagues have now seen several hundred Covid 19 patients and this is what I think I know.”

    https://texags.com/forums/84/topics/3102444

    Thanks for texags link. Lots of the terminology was over my head but what I could understand was daunting (though consistent with what other doctors are saying).

    I wouldn’t wish covid on anyone. But damn, some of the posters on this thread are tempting me. Not the “let’s not destroy our economy” types — that’s a sensible thing to say. The “this is a hoax” types.

  144. @keypusher
    America’s death rate has been tracking Germany’s rate throughout the crisis. You’d just never know that by watching or reading the news.

    Well, yes and no. Through 3/27:

    -We have half the (diagnosed) case rate of Germany (315 per million versus 607 per million) but a slightly higher death rate (5 per million versus 4 per million (versus 2 per million in China, by the way)). The world death rate is currently 3.5 per million.

    -We have a 1.6% mortality rate for diagnosed cases (1,696/104,126) versus 0.7% for Germany (351/50,871).

    https://www.worldometers.info/coronavirus/

    That said, our death rate is obviously lower than most Western European countries, especially Italy and Spain. Possible explanations:

    -more ventilators per capita
    -more ICU beds per capita
    -we're at an earlier stage in the pandemic than they are, so (i) unlike in parts of Spain and Italy, our health care systems haven't been overwhelmed (ii) a lot of sick people in the USA haven't gotten around to dying yet. Note that our rate of growth in cases is now a lot higher than Italy or Spain. https://www.ft.com/coronavirus-latest
    (scroll down to case trajectories graph).
    -virus strains not as virulent here
    -??

    That said, our death rate is obviously lower than most Western European countries, especially Italy and Spain.

    Are old people in those nations banished to reservations (like ours are in the United States) or are they able to mingle freely among the young and asymptomatic?

  145. Anon[198] • Disclaimer says:

    According to the Johns Hopkins website, we have today 105, 573 cases of Covid-19. Our deaths number 1711. This is a death rate of 1.6%. We have had a low death rate consistently all along. Yet over 100K cases is a large enough sample size we can legitimately consider it to be giving us reliable data, and data we can use to project our future death rate from Covid-19.

    This is despite the fact that American tend to be fat, don’t exercise, eat a lousy diet, etc.

    However, Americans have one of the lowest smoking rates on the planet, and one of the lowest rates of exposure to secondhand smoke, thanks to many years of militant anti-smoking campaigns.

    https://worldpopulationreview.com/countries/smoking-rates-by-country/

    US smoking rate is around 17.25% Covid death rate 1.6%
    China has a smoking rate of 24%, and almost half their men smoke. I’ve also seen another estimate that says 2/3s of their men smoke. Current Covid death rate is 4%
    Italy has a 24% smoking rate. Current Covid death rate is 10.55%
    Spain has a 29% smoking rate. Current Covid death rate is 8%

    It appears that not trashing your lungs before you get sick with a respiratory virus like Covid-19 is the single most important factor in determining your country’s death rate.

    When you damage your lungs by smoking, your lungs have trouble clearing out viruses. This means the virus you catch tends to linger. Being sick longer means you increase the chance of getting a lung infection from an opportunistic secondary virus or bacteria, and the combination of both Covid plus something else will kill you off.

  146. @Captain Tripps

    That’s where the insanity kicks in – don’t you dare unplug Grandpa – we’re praying for him (and ain’t payin’ for him) and we want you to do EVERYTHING to keep him with us.
     
    Is it really "insanity", or more of a "dilemma"? Tens of thousands of families across the globe are wrestling with this moral/ethical issue right now. Almost no one wants to see their father/mother/grandfather/grandmother/aunt/uncle/brother/sister suffering. Taking the ventilator off dooms them to asphyxia by drowning in their fluids; as I understand it not a particularly pleasant way to go. Then again, there are very few "pleasant" ways to go anyway. We all hope to die peacefully in our sleep when we are old and have lived a good life, but the vast majority of us won't get that blessing. Most of us are doomed to experience some level of suffering before we go; I think its a testament to us as a people/species that we have evolved to a point where we CAN have the opportunity to enable our loved ones to live this long. But, to your point, we will have to find a way forward to reduce the suffering as fast as possible when deciding when the point of no return is reached; remove the ventilator and increase the morphine? Keep our loved ones in a morphine-induced light coma until the end to minimize the pain? I don't know the answer, but I'm going to have to face it in the coming years with advance aged parents/in-laws/aunts/uncles.

    Once upon a time, death was more common and most people had experience with it. Parents would lose young children, spouses, etc. and often more than once. One of the blessings of our age is that many of us can reach adulthood without death touching anyone close to us, but the flip side of this is that it leaves many of us unfamiliar with the process (and yes, for many people death is a process and not a sudden occurrence). The basic outlines of that process are shared by most humans and indeed most animals so it is well understood by those who are initiated into its mysteries either thru bitter experience or by occupation. If you are lucky, there will be knowledgeable people around to guide you when someday you are forced to confront such a situation. Certainly having morphine around to grease the rails as we slip off this mortal coil can ease unnecessary suffering.

    • Replies: @Dieter Kief
    Sister Morphine (Jagger/Richards) can be good company on our way out. Unfortunately, this is no well respected insight in our culture.
  147. @Stogumber
    From the point of epistemology it makes sense to try different strategies and look in the end which has worked best. The best-working strategy may yet be "herd immunity" - we won't know it before we can compare the mortality rates 2019/2020.
    The Dutch and the Swedes followed the same strategy like the Brits. Now only the Swedish government clings to it. So, Johnson's problem may have been that his citizens are no Swedes.

    The Dutch and the Swedes followed the same strategy like the Brits.

    Shouldn’t we look at South Korea, Taiwan, Honkong an Japan too? Don’t the CO-19 strategies in these countries look like a success story?

  148. OT: Dr Wolfgang Wodarg is a German physician specializing in Pulmonology (respiratory disease), and a politician and former chairman of the Parliamentary Assembly of the Council of Europe. So he is a career doctor who also knows how government bureaucracies work.

    He questions the panic that has ensued. He turns the usual story around, pointing out that it’s possible that the novel coronavirus Covid-19 was discovered in Wuhan, China is because… Wuhan is full of virologists who are looking for novel viruses. And yes, Wuhan has unclean live animal markets, as well as being a huge megalopolis with horrible air pollution, half of the men smoke like chimneys and at any given time there are hundreds of people in ICUs on ventilators.

    But it was a Wuhan doctor who posted the virus on a worldwide database, and doctors in other countries started looking, and saying that yes, I’ve found a sample of this virus.

    One possible negative effect is that the Chinese government might crack down on virologists posting novel virus findings to international databases…

    • Replies: @vhrm
    They've been sequencing samples from all over the world and the one originally found in Wuhan is the ancestor of all the other ones.
    So it's not a matter of it having been all over the place and they just happened to see it first.

    And this relationship would have been discovered even if China had supressed everything and this was first picked up in Washington state or Japan or Italy.
    Though of course they could've denied it.

    https://dna-explained.com/2020/03/12/phylogenetic-tree-of-novel-coronavirus-hcov-19-covid-19/
  149. HA says:
    @Neil Templeton
    Eventually a great thinning will come, be it plague, war, famine, whatever. At that time, a societal resistance to chaos, which we appear to have lost, will be of great value. In that sense the Boris Plan has merit. Play the game, let the chips fall where they may, and learn from your mistakes. A nanny culture may seem wise now, but not so tomorrow.

    “At that time, a societal resistance to chaos, which we appear to have lost, will be of great value.”

    The people who were willing to put on gas masks and live in tunnels like rats were precisely the ones that made it through the London blitz and the firebombing of Dresden. Whereas the brave fools who ignored the sirens and went about their daily routine because, hey, death is preferable to strapping on protection and cowering in a shelter, were far more likely to be given their preferred option.

    Yeah, people in the past were “resistant to chaos” about losing thousands to plagues and diseases. But they were sanguine about economic downturns, too. You think that those who endured the bomb shelters and the years of rationing and hardship that followed would look kindly on those who are now wetting their breeches over their 401k’s? Be honest enough to admit that you’re sweating bullets too, hypocrite — it’s just over a matter that YOU regard as being most important. You’re not as resistant to chaos as you fancy yourself to be.

    This isn’t the last time China unleashes some wet-market biological freak show on the planet. And the next time, maybe it WILL be bio-terrorism that is to blame. But if it goes down like that, then before the thing is released, whoever wants to ensure that the virus will take out as many as possible will first ensure that a horde of naysayers are loudly spouting off about how this is gonna be no big deal, and whatever comes, we can just ride it out and live the way we always have, so no masks or quarantines for me, no way. That won’t be difficult, because apparently, a number of useful idiots are willing to do that for free. So, thanks so much for that.

    • Replies: @obwandiyag
    Not many people died in the Blitz. Of either variety. In Hamburg everybody died. Of either variety.
    , @Neil Templeton

    Be honest enough to admit that you’re sweating bullets too, hypocrite — it’s just over a matter that YOU regard as being most important.
     
    Not sure what you're talking about here, I'm not sweating over my 401k or the economic downturn. My point was that a society that has the resiliancy to function at a reasonable level even in the midst of chaos, or at least to quickly rebound from such, may, in the long run, outperform a society that goes on lockdown habitually. Otherwise, thanks for your response.
  150. @Curle
    I presume you mean Russia/USSR, but I’m thinking a different rival and that they lost their opportunity between 1861-65.

    Here’s my take:
    WWI: wrong threat: Germany – real threat : USA
    WWII: wrong threat: Germany–Real threat: USSR and USA.

  151. @Jack D
    Once upon a time, death was more common and most people had experience with it. Parents would lose young children, spouses, etc. and often more than once. One of the blessings of our age is that many of us can reach adulthood without death touching anyone close to us, but the flip side of this is that it leaves many of us unfamiliar with the process (and yes, for many people death is a process and not a sudden occurrence). The basic outlines of that process are shared by most humans and indeed most animals so it is well understood by those who are initiated into its mysteries either thru bitter experience or by occupation. If you are lucky, there will be knowledgeable people around to guide you when someday you are forced to confront such a situation. Certainly having morphine around to grease the rails as we slip off this mortal coil can ease unnecessary suffering.

    Sister Morphine (Jagger/Richards) can be good company on our way out. Unfortunately, this is no well respected insight in our culture.

  152. Anon[288] • Disclaimer says:
    @John Achterhof
    Anonguy,

    Herd immunity by infection and recovery was public policy for chickenpox before a vaccine was developed for the virus in 1995. Parents deliberately got their children infected at "pox parties," as the infection is better contended with in youth. The best approach to defending public health and public interest depends on many factors, most obviously in the case of a new virus evaluation of its characteristics.

    The great achievements of medicine against disease and ailments over the past 120 years or so is now popularly appreciated in an expectation of the pharmaceutical industry to develop magic bullets for all our health issues. We're apt to under-appreciate what a fantastically well-evolved asset our own body is - specifically our immune system - in the prime function of any organism of maintaining homeostasis of its systems.

    https://www.nwfdailynews.com/opinion/20200322/george-will-you-are-not-teetering-contraption

    I was a child and a parent before well before 1995. There were no chickenpox parties. When my kids were young there were measles and mumps vaccines but not for chickenpox. When I and my sibs were young there were no measles mumps, measles or chickenpox vaccines.

    I and every boomer parent can tell you there were no chicken pox parties before 1995.

    Chickenpox parties were created around 2010 by hysterical liberal anti vaccine idiot women following the latest liberal fad of anti vaccine nonsense. Kathy Griffin Cher Patricia Arquette types.

    Plus women who want to blame every bit of misbehavior, bad manners, messiness, less than A grades, whatever imperfections their children have on some mysterious curse. Nowadays it’s vaccines. When we were young parents it was sugar that caused every problem. Ha ha

    • Replies: @anonymous jew
    Umm...I was born in the 70's and grew up in the heart of hippy-dippy North/canal Seattle. My memories are vague, but I'm pretty sure I was sent to a chickenpox party as a child. When the first case emerged in our school (an alternative school by the University of Washington), I clearly remember my boomer mother stressing that it was better to get the chickenpox now than as an adult. That was right before I contracted chickenpox. But at least my mother blamed me for my misbehavior.

    Regarding Coronavirus, I'm getting antsy. I may as well get it now while I'm working from home , our daycare is closed, and the weather still sucks.

    Ron Unz stresses that, unlike global warming, we will soon know very soon how this will all play out. I suspect that, in retrospect, closing down everything won't be seen as worth the cost. Japan will be seen as the model. They just all wore masks, took off their shoes(!) kept to mostly business as usual, and have the flattest curve in the industrialized north. They even have more hospital beds per capita, just in case.

    , @Corn
    “I and every boomer parent can tell you there were no chicken pox parties before 1995.”

    I don’t think I’d ever heard of a pox party until I watched an episode of South Park or The Simpsons that featured one in the late 90s or early 00s. I wonder if life imitated art?

    Besides, isn’t there a chickenpox vaccine now?
    , @New Dealer
    Per wikipedia, chicken pox vaccine was first licensed in the U.S. in 1995. I am absolutely sure that in 1988 on the west coast of the U.S. I sent my son to a chickenpox party.
  153. Hail says: • Website
    @Hypnotoad666
    Politically, "just do something" always wins in a crisis. If everything is ok in the end, they can say "our efforts avoided catastrophe." If there is a catastrophe anyway, they can say "think how much worse it would have been without our efforts."

    Doing nothing, however, is always a political loser. No matter how smart it might be, it appears you don't care. Politics is all about showing you care.

    Right. This is a fair argument against democracy, certainly against a bad form thereof.

    Interestingly, Sweden appears to be the country with the least degree of policy influence by Do Something panickers. They are proceeding with business as usual with minor flu-season precautions, which was almost certainly the right response. I’m not sure what this says about Sweden, whose politics is much mocked (for good reason) around here in other contexts.

    Also, it’s worth saying that ‘Crisis,’ and the ‘Do Something’ kneejerk reaction, in our societies today tend to be triggered by a media campaign as often as not. (see the Media-Run State idea.) Remember the plague of White Police Murdering Unarmed Black Men?

    • Replies: @Peterike
    ”Interestingly, Sweden appears to be the country with the least degree of policy influence by Do Something panickers. They are proceeding with business as usual with minor flu-season precautions, which was almost certainly the right response.”

    My guess is they know darn well their sacred vibrants will ignore all social distancing edicts, so they are avoiding it so the migrants don’t look bad. Seriously I bet this is really the thinking.
    , @danand

    "Interestingly, Sweden appears to be the country with the least degree of policy influence by Do Something panickers. They are proceeding with business as usual with minor flu-season precautions, which was almost certainly the right response. I’m not sure what this says about Sweden..."
     
    Hail, from a couple of recent coronavirus articles on Sweden:

    "Swedes are used to living alone, following rules and championing innovation. How much will these social norms help during the coronavirus crisis?

    While people around the world are climbing the walls due to coronavirus lockdowns and social distancing, 21-year-old Swede Cajsa Wiking is unfazed by the prospect of spending time alone in her one-bedroom apartment in Uppsala.

    “We are pretty good at staying home and aren't very social compared to other cultures...so that makes it easier for us,” she says.

    More than half of all Swedish homes are made up of one resident, the highest proportion in Europe."

     
    https://flic.kr/p/2iJBjTL

    https://www.bbc.com/worklife/article/20200328-how-to-self-isolate-what-we-can-learn-from-sweden


    "Sweden's prime minister announced Friday that public gatherings of more than 50 people will be banned as of Sunday, with violators subject to fines or even imprisonment."
     
    https://www.npr.org/sections/coronavirus-live-updates/2020/03/27/822463152/sweden-bans-groups-larger-than-50-in-its-first-major-coronavirus-crackdown
  154. @AnotherDad
    Thomas, i get that.

    My point is that "breathing support" isn't some kind of brand new thing to be required. So there should be coefficients in the model for "breathing support" of various types. Then you plug in the appropriate coefficients--much greater than the flu--for Covid-19 and your model should immediately tell you it's a problem. This stuff is basic.

    "The model" isn't one thing. If it's going to be any good at all it has to have a bunch of parameters you set based on what the disease--or multiple diseases!--you're dealing with.

    September 24, 2009 NPR Headline
    “Virulent Swine Flu May Trigger Rationing Of Ventilators”

    https://www.npr.org/sections/health-shots/2009/09/swine_flu_could_trigger_tough.html

    September 2009, “public health officials are preparing for the worst and that means coming up with plans for who would get a ventilator and who wouldn’t. Rationing of ventilators could pit the families of people with serious non-flu illnesses against those of acutely ill flu patients.”

    The New York Protocol, drafted by New York public health officials in 2007 before swine flu was even on the map. Under the most serious flu scenario they contemplated, more than three-quarters of a million New Yorkers would be hospitalized and 153,000 would die. During the peak of the pandemic ventilator needs would outstrip the supply by more than 15,000.

    New York State knew they had a shortage of ventilators and hospital beds back in 2007…yet instead of adding ICU units, they closed down hospitalized and eliminated 10% of their ICU beds since Andrew Cuomo became governor 9 years ago. In 2015 New York State issued guidelines on how to ethically allocate limited resources during a severe influenza pandemic and estimated 18,619 ventilators would be needed — 15,783 more than hospitals have in their reserves. Basic medical supplies like N95 masks and face visors would be in even higher demand. Why did Governor Cuomo fail to act ? Why did Cuomo ignore the New York State report which indicated they needed more supplies back in 2015 ?

    Was Cuomo not aware of the the risk of a pandemic ? He was the attorney General of New York during the last pandemic. New Yorkers have known since 2009 that they lacked the capacity to handle a serious pandemic. Yet instead of getting prepared, they reduced the number of beds and ventilators over the last decade.

  155. Hail says: • Website
    @UK
    Iceland has about 9 times the number of cases per capita than the USA.

    Omg, they're all dying.

    With their 0.2% death rate?

    Oh, the more you test, the more cases you have and the lower your lethality.

    Weird how more tests means more cases and proportionately many fewer deaths! Why ever could that be?

    Does testing create cases and save lives?

    More "evidence": in the US testing is going up exponentially as are cases!

    More, more "evidence": in Italy they rigorously test the dead for any sign of Wuhan Virus, but barely test the non-severely ill...and the dead all seem to have it, while the non-severely ill do not! Whaddaya know!

    Amazing...proof....testing causes Coronavirus.

    As for the UK, it was mostly that genuine hysteria
    and motivated disingenuous hysteria won out. The number of ventilators has been increased by 60%. Dyson has designed a new one and is building about 200% more. And their use is not exactly game-changing anyway.

    “Human suffering aside, socialists in my timeline are living their best lives: command and control, massive state spending, everybody paid to stay at home, rationing on the way, private schools folding and the joy of piling into entrepreneurs as their businesses go down the swanny”

    Of course, the Unz version of those socialists is even more depressing. "Beijing Rona".

    Dr. John Ioannidis of Stanford, a legitimate expert in the field, is now predicting a total death rate as .01% to 0.1% of those who are exposed to the virus.

    If it affects half of the residents of USA, that final Big Scary Number, total deaths attributed to the Big Scary ‘New’ Virus, roughly on par with usual flu deaths; adding in other flu deaths, that’s a somewhat worse flu season than usual. It happens. Life goes on.

    See John Ioannidis’ recent article in the Wall Street Journal (excerpts here).

    __________

    Fiasco, noun, mid-19th century, Italian. Originally theater slang for “a failure in performance;” by 1862 it had acquired the general sense of “any ignominious failure or dismal flop,” on or off the stage. It comes via the French phrase faire fiasco “turn out a failure” (19c.), from Italian far fiasco “suffer a complete breakdown in performance,” literally “make a bottle,” from fiasco “bottle,” from Late Latin flasco “bottle” (see flask). (Etymology.)

    • Replies: @Ron Unz

    Dr. John Ioannidis of Stanford, a legitimate expert in the field, is now predicting a total death rate as .01% to 0.1% of those who are exposed to the virus....See John Ioannidis’ recent article in the Wall Street Journal (excerpts here).
     
    Someone else just asked me about that ridiculous WSJ op-ed, and here's part of my comment:

    I read it a couple of days ago, and it was very obviously dishonest propaganda. Two or three of the tricks they were playing with the data jumped right out at me, and I’m absolutely no expert.

    For decades, the WSJ Op-Ed page has often specialized in dishonest propaganda, which may frequently deceive many of the people who read it. The problem in this particular case is that the Coronavirus is *not* deceived, and its opinion counts for much more than that of the readers.

    I noticed yesterday that Coronavirus deaths in New York had reached 140 per day, nearly triple what it had been just three or four days earlier. At that rate, it may reach 500-1000 per day within another week or so. The local health care system will then collapse and deaths will more than quadruple.

    Personally, I think we’ll be lucky to avoid over a million deaths by early summer. Maybe the figure will be much higher.
     
    https://www.unz.com/runz/correctly-estimating-coronavirus-infections/#comment-3801379
  156. @Hail
    Right. This is a fair argument against democracy, certainly against a bad form thereof.

    Interestingly, Sweden appears to be the country with the least degree of policy influence by Do Something panickers. They are proceeding with business as usual with minor flu-season precautions, which was almost certainly the right response. I'm not sure what this says about Sweden, whose politics is much mocked (for good reason) around here in other contexts.

    Also, it's worth saying that 'Crisis,' and the 'Do Something' kneejerk reaction, in our societies today tend to be triggered by a media campaign as often as not. (see the Media-Run State idea.) Remember the plague of White Police Murdering Unarmed Black Men?

    ”Interestingly, Sweden appears to be the country with the least degree of policy influence by Do Something panickers. They are proceeding with business as usual with minor flu-season precautions, which was almost certainly the right response.”

    My guess is they know darn well their sacred vibrants will ignore all social distancing edicts, so they are avoiding it so the migrants don’t look bad. Seriously I bet this is really the thinking.

  157. Newsflash

    If the number of deaths can be kept below 20,000 the government will have done well, said the medical director of NHS England, Stephen Powis.

    They actually think there will be 8000 excess deaths worst case, according to what the chief scientific advisor told MPs. Oxford ‘s prestige makes them more able to disregard subtle political pressure. Imperial doubtless know their stuff, but they are all over the place: too responsive to what the government needs to hear. Insouciant advice was supplied by Imperial, then they flipped flopped and came out with a flesh creeping prediction that was just what the government needed. There is also the point that the team leader at Imperial got infected and the virus attacks your brain and balls.

    They should have listened to Oxford.

    Sunetra Gupta is an acclaimed novelist, essayist and scientist. In October 2012 her fifth novel, So Good in Black, was longlisted for the DSC Prize for South Asian Literature. In 2009 she was named as the winner of the Royal Society Rosalind Franklin Award for her scientific achievements. Sunetra, who lives in Oxford with her husband and two daughters, is Professor of Theoretical Epidemiology at Oxford University’s Department of Zoology, having graduated in 1987 from Princeton University and received her PhD from the University of London in 1992

    Gupta has wide ranging interests, the very opposite of a nerdy character who gets overawed by wordsmiths.

    https://www.sciencemag.org/news/2020/03/mathematics-life-and-death-how-disease-models-shape-national-shutdowns-and-other

    Both scenarios are equally plausible, says Sunetra Gupta, the theoretical epidemiologist who led the Oxford work. “I do think it is missing from the thinking that there is an equally big possibility that a lot of us are immune,”

  158. @Altai

    What changed? Partly the international epidemic shifted from Asia (which has immigrant communities and transportation links on the West Coast) to Italy and Europe (which have immigrant communities and transportation links on the East Coast). Partly the West Coast had some good policy whereas New York had terrible policy (while California was instituting shelter-in-place, Governor Cuomo was vetoing NYC’s shelter-in-place order and later griping about the term shelter-in-place’s etymology).
     
    Maybe Scott is a bit of an out of touch West Coaster but there really aren't too large immigrant communities from Italy in the East Coast anymore, their descendants yes, but the familial links back to their homelands were broken and few Italian-Americans trace much of any link to Lombardy. America really hasn't been much of a land of opportunity for anyone from a first world country for a long time.

    The outbreak in the US seems to have been mediated by religious practices among Orthodox Jews and spread through their social network such as schools. Additionally the outbreak was mediated in the West by rich tourists, principally skiers.

    Cuomo even sent the army to lockdown the town of New Rochelle whose synagogue seems to have been the core of the spread. When I say lockdown, I mean you can't even get your own food, the army bring it to you.

    I'm still shocked the US didn't immediately shut down direct flights from Milan on Feb 26th when it was immediately clear the outbreak in Lombardy was out of control.

    …and few Italian-Americans trace much of any link to Lombardy.

    But those in South America may. It was North Italy > South America, and South Italy > North America.

  159. Ed says:
    @keypusher
    America’s death rate has been tracking Germany’s rate throughout the crisis. You’d just never know that by watching or reading the news.

    Well, yes and no. Through 3/27:

    -We have half the (diagnosed) case rate of Germany (315 per million versus 607 per million) but a slightly higher death rate (5 per million versus 4 per million (versus 2 per million in China, by the way)). The world death rate is currently 3.5 per million.

    -We have a 1.6% mortality rate for diagnosed cases (1,696/104,126) versus 0.7% for Germany (351/50,871).

    https://www.worldometers.info/coronavirus/

    That said, our death rate is obviously lower than most Western European countries, especially Italy and Spain. Possible explanations:

    -more ventilators per capita
    -more ICU beds per capita
    -we're at an earlier stage in the pandemic than they are, so (i) unlike in parts of Spain and Italy, our health care systems haven't been overwhelmed (ii) a lot of sick people in the USA haven't gotten around to dying yet. Note that our rate of growth in cases is now a lot higher than Italy or Spain. https://www.ft.com/coronavirus-latest
    (scroll down to case trajectories graph).
    -virus strains not as virulent here
    -??

    Differential in cases is increasingly a function of different testing levels in countries. Here in the USA testing is ramping up while doctors are telling people don’t come to the hospital unless your symptoms become more severe.

    Hospitalization and deaths seems like a better comparison point and here the USA compares favorably to much of the world.

    • Replies: @Captain Tripps
    It appears most of the country is having some success slowing the rate of infection. The greater New York City Metropolitan Area appears to be turning into our version of Wuhan/Lombardy (with a handful of other hotspots around the country). I think we will end up reinforcing the support to the New York area from other areas where there are very low rates if infection. As noted in previous threads there are many jurisdictions with hospitals/healthcare support that are underutilized.
    , @Keypusher
    Thanks, makes sense. Have been tracking deaths, will try to pay more attention to hospitalizations. Is there a good source for that? Worldometer isn’t, unless I am missing something.
  160. @Philip Owen
    In a paper from Wuhan, 31 out of 32 patients put on ventilators died in an environment with no shoratge of ventilators (ie even relatively healthy patients has them). Ventilators are a distraction.

    Philip. . .I had the same question about ventilators after reading/watching very moving accounts of nurses in Italy about how almost no one put on ventilators ends up surviving. I also read the account of a Texas A&M doctor working in New Orleans that in Seattle only 30 percent of ventilator patients recover. (These people are not Chinese shills.) I am in a vulnerable group (60 y/o male) and support strong measures, but I wonder if lack of ventilators will make much difference.

    I remember when my son had pneumonia at 10 months age, he had those oxygen tubes in his nose. Does anyone know about the supply of this supplemental oxygen equipment? My impression is that it is much more readily available.

  161. Here is an amusing side story. There has been much talk recently about hand sanitizer. Many news stories have credited one ” Ms. Lupe Hernandez, a student nurse” for not only inventing but patenting this product in 1966. Apparently the Ur-Story for this myth (and yes, it’s a myth – we’ll get to that part) is a 2012 story in the UK Guardian written by one Laura Barton:

    https://www.theguardian.com/society/2012/may/13/do-we-really-need-hand-sanitisers

    Laura Barton is an eminent historian and an expert on public health so she was well qualified to write this article. Oh, no wait, “Laura Barton is a writer and broadcaster specialising in music” according to her blurb in the Guardian, my mistake.

    This is a wonderful heartwarming story – hand sanitizer, like peanut butter, was not invented by some boring stale pale male like the guys who invented the telephone and the light bulb and the automobile and every other thing in your house. No, it was invented by a vibrant brown Latina! This is too good to check and has been repeated countless times in breathless tones:

    Unsurprisingly, this is yet another case of a Latinx being written out of history, and it’s refreshing to see her get a bit of recognition, albeit late.

    Over 50 years later, Lupe Hernandez is still saving lives against threatening diseases and protecting brave medical professionals.

    https://remezcla.com/culture/hand-sanitizer-inventor-latina-lupe-hernandez/

    However, someone did check:

    https://www.vanityfair.com/style/2020/03/purell-hand-sanitizer-history

    And there’s no patent registered to Lupe Hernandez, it’s not even clear if she (or is it a he) even existed and if he/she did think of this product, her idea (not exactly rocket science – alcohol has been known to be a disinfectant since the 19th century) did not lead to the commercial product we know today. Rather, that honor belongs to Purell, the product of the GoJo company. GoJo was founded in 1946, by husband-and-wife team Goldie and Jerome “Jerry” Lippman (well there’s a female in there at least but if Goldie was brown it’s from the tan she got in Miami Beach):

    https://www.gojo.com/~/media/GOJO%20Site/Corporate/Images/Jerry-Goldie-ph-0608.ashx

    GoJo’s original product, still produced and well known to auto mechanics and people who work on cars, was an orange scented petroleum based waterless hand cleaner. This product is not anti-bacterial but it’s really good for getting grease off your hands. As a result of the 1973 oil shock, GoJo’s raw material cost soared and they went looking for other feedstocks and came up with the idea of an alcohol based product. Alcohol can be quite drying to the skin but they had experience in adding moisturizers so that the product would not be unpleasant to use. Still, at first sales were slow and the product really didn’t get going until the early 2000s. Like water in portion sized bottles, somehow America survived for 2 centuries without this stuff but after Y2K we need it.

    The Vanity Fair reporter reaches Laura and asks her to provide sourcing for her claim that Lupe was the real inventor of hand sanitizer and Laura basically tells him that the dog ate her homework.

    However, there is one clue that there really is a Lupe, but Lupe turns out to be a he and not a she and apparently writes English at the 4th grade level, which may be one reason why he never commercialized his product:

    Someone writes to the internet and asks “Is Lupe H Hernandez inventor of hand sanitizer still alive?”

    and (maybe?) Lupe himself emerges to give the answer:

    Yes, and it is a male, I gave my idea to a CEO of idea company and am still waiting to get credit. I can prove that it was my idea of how I explained it and how its made.

    I was in college and thought of a way to help speed up work in hospitals and to kill germs and help with good hygien. The story of a women is wrong to corp. gain, but its ok cause I no where am at in that whole devolopment.

    Lupe Hernandez BKSLFD,CA. 93313

    https://www.answers.com/Q/Is_Lupe_H_Hernandez_inventor_of_hand_sanitizer_still_alive

    LOL

    • Thanks: Lot
    • LOL: Johann Ricke
    • Replies: @keypusher
    GoJo’s original product, still produced and well known to auto mechanics and people who work on cars, was an orange scented petroleum based waterless hand cleaner. This product is not anti-bacterial but it’s really good for getting grease off your hands. As a result of the 1973 oil shock, GoJo’s raw material cost soared and they went looking for other feedstocks and came up with the idea of an alcohol based product.

    Well, it's still a heartwarming story, it's just that a mom-and-pop business doesn't quite rustle the jimmies of today, unfortunately.

    I remember seeing a lot of Go-Jo (I think that's how they used to spell it) in garages in South Carolina in the 80s, glad the company still around.
  162. @Ed
    Herd immunity is still the plan in Sweden. Hard to say if it’s working it has a higher amount of deaths than its Scandinavian peers who are on lockdown but has around the same death rate per million as the UK.

    https://www.nytimes.com/2020/03/28/world/europe/sweden-coronavirus.html


    In fact, Sweden has stayed open for business while other nations beyond Scandinavia have attacked the outbreak with various measures ambitious in scope and reach. Sweden’s approach has raised questions about whether it’s gambling with a disease, Covid-19, that has no cure or vaccine, or if its tactic will be seen as a savvy strategy to fight a scourge that has laid waste to millions of jobs and prompted global lockdowns unprecedented in peacetime.

    By Saturday, Norway, population 5.3 million, had more than 3,770 coronavirus cases and 19 deaths; Denmark, population 5.6 million, reported 2,200 cases and 52 deaths; Sweden, with 10.12 million people, recorded more than 3,060 cases and 105 deaths.
     

    As I said elsewhere here on UR, the Swedes have chosen to live and let some die.

  163. @Ed
    Differential in cases is increasingly a function of different testing levels in countries. Here in the USA testing is ramping up while doctors are telling people don’t come to the hospital unless your symptoms become more severe.

    Hospitalization and deaths seems like a better comparison point and here the USA compares favorably to much of the world.

    It appears most of the country is having some success slowing the rate of infection. The greater New York City Metropolitan Area appears to be turning into our version of Wuhan/Lombardy (with a handful of other hotspots around the country). I think we will end up reinforcing the support to the New York area from other areas where there are very low rates if infection. As noted in previous threads there are many jurisdictions with hospitals/healthcare support that are underutilized.

    • Replies: @Ed
    California is now 5th in the country in total deaths and Santa Clara appears to be on a promising trend.

    https://twitter.com/mzjacobson/status/1244046727193038854?s=21
  164. anon[559] • Disclaimer says:
    @Bernard
    Coronavirus cure: French researchers completed new additional study on 80 patients, results show a combination of Hydroxychloroquine and Azithromycin to be effective in treating COVID-19

    In 80 in-patients receiving a combination of hydroxychloroquine and azithromycin, the team found a clinical improvement in all but one 86 year-old patient who died, and one 74-year old patient still in intensive care unit. The team also found that, by administering hydroxychloroquine combined with azithromycin, they were able to observe an improvement in all cases, except in one patient who arrived with an advanced form, who was over the age of 86, and in whom the evolution was irreversible, according to a new paper published today in IHU Méditerranée Infection.

    Help is on the way.


    https://techstartups.com/2020/03/27/coronavirus-cure-new-results-french-study-shows-combination-hydroxychloroquine-plaquenil-azithromycin-successfully-treated-80-coronavirus-patients-significant-dr/

    The apparent lack of enthusiasm for this treatment is due to a fear that the results will lead to hoarding and over use. They want to initially limit its use to the moderately-severely ill who have tested positive.

    A front line NY doctor on a Fox/Tucker Carlson video last night said he was taking plaquenil.

    We have millions of doses of the stuff, but not hundreds of millions. You also don’t want people taking it “just in case”.

  165. @Stogumber
    From the point of epistemology it makes sense to try different strategies and look in the end which has worked best. The best-working strategy may yet be "herd immunity" - we won't know it before we can compare the mortality rates 2019/2020.
    The Dutch and the Swedes followed the same strategy like the Brits. Now only the Swedish government clings to it. So, Johnson's problem may have been that his citizens are no Swedes.

    The Netherlands and Sweden are not doing well.

  166. @epebble

    UK had to perform a disastrous about-face
     
    But how does performing about-face resolve ventilator shortages? You can't make 30,000 ventilators tomorrow; Even if one procures 30K ventilators by magic, where will the ICU's to place them in come from? Where will the skilled nursing staff come from? PPEs for all of them? It has ClstrFck written all over it. Just like USA , which did not make any face, about or straight.

    Our fine host Mr. Ron Unz is hyperventilating about the crisis, but I don’t think we have a good statistical model to say with much certainty that what anybody did was so wrong, what we should be doing and whether even doing the recommended thing is making any difference.

    We thought we could contain this thing with contact tracing and isolation, but that dam has broken many weeks ago. It looks like this virus is not traceable and isolatable based on its pattern of infection.

    How do we know that this thing has spread like wildfire, the herd all has the virus, that this thing isn’t going to run its course and the badly affected individuals, their families and close contact and society will just have to deal with whatever happens?

    I support the level of shutdown, the social distancing and the Stimulus Bill to ease the economic pain of the most badly impacted.

    What happens in 2 weeks when we see this thing isn’t even slowing down? We need an antibody test to measure who already has had this, and we need to do scientific sampling in the style of election polls as soon as we get enough test kits. This is kinda, sorta what iSteve has been asking for?

    I will offer this statement with all of its intended irony. What I say about Boris Johnson and the British people is that in the end they do the right thing, that is, after trying every other thing.

  167. @Hail
    Right. This is a fair argument against democracy, certainly against a bad form thereof.

    Interestingly, Sweden appears to be the country with the least degree of policy influence by Do Something panickers. They are proceeding with business as usual with minor flu-season precautions, which was almost certainly the right response. I'm not sure what this says about Sweden, whose politics is much mocked (for good reason) around here in other contexts.

    Also, it's worth saying that 'Crisis,' and the 'Do Something' kneejerk reaction, in our societies today tend to be triggered by a media campaign as often as not. (see the Media-Run State idea.) Remember the plague of White Police Murdering Unarmed Black Men?

    “Interestingly, Sweden appears to be the country with the least degree of policy influence by Do Something panickers. They are proceeding with business as usual with minor flu-season precautions, which was almost certainly the right response. I’m not sure what this says about Sweden…”

    Hail, from a couple of recent coronavirus articles on Sweden:

    “Swedes are used to living alone, following rules and championing innovation. How much will these social norms help during the coronavirus crisis?

    While people around the world are climbing the walls due to coronavirus lockdowns and social distancing, 21-year-old Swede Cajsa Wiking is unfazed by the prospect of spending time alone in her one-bedroom apartment in Uppsala.

    “We are pretty good at staying home and aren’t very social compared to other cultures…so that makes it easier for us,” she says.

    More than half of all Swedish homes are made up of one resident, the highest proportion in Europe.”

    swede

    https://www.bbc.com/worklife/article/20200328-how-to-self-isolate-what-we-can-learn-from-sweden

    “Sweden’s prime minister announced Friday that public gatherings of more than 50 people will be banned as of Sunday, with violators subject to fines or even imprisonment.”

    https://www.npr.org/sections/coronavirus-live-updates/2020/03/27/822463152/sweden-bans-groups-larger-than-50-in-its-first-major-coronavirus-crackdown

  168. @Jack D
    Here is an amusing side story. There has been much talk recently about hand sanitizer. Many news stories have credited one " Ms. Lupe Hernandez, a student nurse" for not only inventing but patenting this product in 1966. Apparently the Ur-Story for this myth (and yes, it's a myth - we'll get to that part) is a 2012 story in the UK Guardian written by one Laura Barton:

    https://www.theguardian.com/society/2012/may/13/do-we-really-need-hand-sanitisers

    Laura Barton is an eminent historian and an expert on public health so she was well qualified to write this article. Oh, no wait, "Laura Barton is a writer and broadcaster specialising in music" according to her blurb in the Guardian, my mistake.

    This is a wonderful heartwarming story - hand sanitizer, like peanut butter, was not invented by some boring stale pale male like the guys who invented the telephone and the light bulb and the automobile and every other thing in your house. No, it was invented by a vibrant brown Latina! This is too good to check and has been repeated countless times in breathless tones:


    Unsurprisingly, this is yet another case of a Latinx being written out of history, and it’s refreshing to see her get a bit of recognition, albeit late.

    Over 50 years later, Lupe Hernandez is still saving lives against threatening diseases and protecting brave medical professionals.
     

    https://remezcla.com/culture/hand-sanitizer-inventor-latina-lupe-hernandez/


    However, someone did check:

    https://www.vanityfair.com/style/2020/03/purell-hand-sanitizer-history

    And there's no patent registered to Lupe Hernandez, it's not even clear if she (or is it a he) even existed and if he/she did think of this product, her idea (not exactly rocket science - alcohol has been known to be a disinfectant since the 19th century) did not lead to the commercial product we know today. Rather, that honor belongs to Purell, the product of the GoJo company. GoJo was founded in 1946, by husband-and-wife team Goldie and Jerome “Jerry” Lippman (well there's a female in there at least but if Goldie was brown it's from the tan she got in Miami Beach):

    https://www.gojo.com/~/media/GOJO%20Site/Corporate/Images/Jerry-Goldie-ph-0608.ashx

    GoJo's original product, still produced and well known to auto mechanics and people who work on cars, was an orange scented petroleum based waterless hand cleaner. This product is not anti-bacterial but it's really good for getting grease off your hands. As a result of the 1973 oil shock, GoJo's raw material cost soared and they went looking for other feedstocks and came up with the idea of an alcohol based product. Alcohol can be quite drying to the skin but they had experience in adding moisturizers so that the product would not be unpleasant to use. Still, at first sales were slow and the product really didn't get going until the early 2000s. Like water in portion sized bottles, somehow America survived for 2 centuries without this stuff but after Y2K we need it.

    The Vanity Fair reporter reaches Laura and asks her to provide sourcing for her claim that Lupe was the real inventor of hand sanitizer and Laura basically tells him that the dog ate her homework.

    However, there is one clue that there really is a Lupe, but Lupe turns out to be a he and not a she and apparently writes English at the 4th grade level, which may be one reason why he never commercialized his product:

    Someone writes to the internet and asks "Is Lupe H Hernandez inventor of hand sanitizer still alive?"

    and (maybe?) Lupe himself emerges to give the answer:


    Yes, and it is a male, I gave my idea to a CEO of idea company and am still waiting to get credit. I can prove that it was my idea of how I explained it and how its made.

    I was in college and thought of a way to help speed up work in hospitals and to kill germs and help with good hygien. The story of a women is wrong to corp. gain, but its ok cause I no where am at in that whole devolopment.

    Lupe Hernandez BKSLFD,CA. 93313
     

    https://www.answers.com/Q/Is_Lupe_H_Hernandez_inventor_of_hand_sanitizer_still_alive

    LOL

    GoJo’s original product, still produced and well known to auto mechanics and people who work on cars, was an orange scented petroleum based waterless hand cleaner. This product is not anti-bacterial but it’s really good for getting grease off your hands. As a result of the 1973 oil shock, GoJo’s raw material cost soared and they went looking for other feedstocks and came up with the idea of an alcohol based product.

    Well, it’s still a heartwarming story, it’s just that a mom-and-pop business doesn’t quite rustle the jimmies of today, unfortunately.

    I remember seeing a lot of Go-Jo (I think that’s how they used to spell it) in garages in South Carolina in the 80s, glad the company still around.

    • Replies: @Jack D
    It is a heartwarming story - the are still around and still privately held by the original family but have grown to 2,500 employees (and the factories are still in the US).

    Goldie worked as a supervisor in the rubber factories of Akron, OH during WWII and noticed the factory workers dipping their hands in kerosene at the end of their shifts to get the carbon black off but this is very hard on your skin. She discussed this with her husband and he recruited the painfully white and WASPY Professor Clarence Cook at Kent State U. to come up with a better product. Maybe at one time this kind of Jewish entrepreneurship/WASP technical skill collaboration was OK but by 2020 standards its not OK so we need Lupe to come to our rescue. If she doesn't exist we need to invent her.
  169. @UK
    Viruses become less lethal over time. Natural selection makes them that way. Almost always, the less sick they make you the more likely you are to spread them, all other things being equal.

    Not always.

    It is believed that the original AIDS virus is pretty much what is now called HIV-2. This is a horrible disease, but far less deadly than what spread to Europe and she US — HIV-1.

    The second waves of both the Spanish and the Hong Kong flues were more deadly than the first waves, in terms of both R0 and death rates.

    Most of the time you are correct. It is thought that the less deadly seasonal flues we get these days mutated from the deadlier original versions.

    Something interesting about the Coronavirus is how slowly it is mutating. This gives hope that a vaccine could actually work.

  170. @The Wild Geese Howard

    Deaths simply aren’t piling up the way the hysterical people predicted.
     
    As I keep saying - show me bodies stacked like cordwood and smoldering corpse pyramids during Cuomo's pressers and the 5 o'clock news or stop the mass hysteria.

    But … but… but … we really need to be afraid … they have a lineup of morgue reefer trucks.

    Yeah, I agree. I’ll know the SHRHTF when they are burning piles of corpses in the streets and in town squares.

  171. Anon[288] • Disclaimer says:
    @Daniel Williams
    That is a good point. Coastal America could be brain-draining the flyover states just like immigration restrictionists say that U.S. immigration policy is brain-draining the third world by offering preferential status to highly educated applicants.

    That’s a fascinating thought: a guy who would have made a great doctor in his hometown in West Virginia or Nebraska instead becomes a Master of the Universe in NYC or Connecticut.

    I wonder how often that actually happens? From what I read here, it seems like a lot of those guys are overlooked by the elite college admissions machine. But still...

    It’s my opinion that since college admissions and jobs are so discriminatory against White American men, there is no brain drain from flyover country to the coasts.

    I still remember the denial letters to one of my brothers from medical schools. He was denied admission because of “ judicial constraints” . That’s the various Supreme Court judicial orders mandating affirmative action for all but Whites. The constraints they referred to were probably Kaiser vs Weber 1979.

    A nephew is a Dr. he’s in his mid 30s. He went to med school in Ireland. English language, 5 year program starting upon graduation from high school. The program included all the clinical training. The 5th year is the internship. Take the licensing exam and they’re physicians at 23,24 instead of of 30. If they want to specialize it’s a residency but at least they’re earning a decent wage during the residency.

    He didn’t bother applying in England although the program is the same. English medical schools seem to accept only black brown and tan people. The English med school
    Admissions people fly all over Africa, Asia. Mid East the entire third & fifth world recruiting and interviewing.

    I went to college with the White American men who created Silicone n Valley and the computer age. By 1990 they were lucky to have jobs as high school math teachers. Where they were racially harassed by black women administrators with LOL, masters and PhDs in education and IQs of 95.

    I believe the top 20 colleges like to have one, just one student from each flyover deplorable state.

    Considering the ACT SAT and public school ratings from Iowa, Nebraska, even W Virginia, it’s obvious top 100 college admissions practices severe discrimination against Whites.

  172. @Hail
    Dr. John Ioannidis of Stanford, a legitimate expert in the field, is now predicting a total death rate as .01% to 0.1% of those who are exposed to the virus.

    If it affects half of the residents of USA, that final Big Scary Number, total deaths attributed to the Big Scary 'New' Virus, roughly on par with usual flu deaths; adding in other flu deaths, that's a somewhat worse flu season than usual. It happens. Life goes on.

    See John Ioannidis' recent article in the Wall Street Journal (excerpts here).

    __________

    Fiasco, noun, mid-19th century, Italian. Originally theater slang for "a failure in performance;" by 1862 it had acquired the general sense of "any ignominious failure or dismal flop," on or off the stage. It comes via the French phrase faire fiasco "turn out a failure" (19c.), from Italian far fiasco "suffer a complete breakdown in performance," literally "make a bottle," from fiasco "bottle," from Late Latin flasco "bottle" (see flask). (Etymology.)

    Dr. John Ioannidis of Stanford, a legitimate expert in the field, is now predicting a total death rate as .01% to 0.1% of those who are exposed to the virus….See John Ioannidis’ recent article in the Wall Street Journal (excerpts here).

    Someone else just asked me about that ridiculous WSJ op-ed, and here’s part of my comment:

    I read it a couple of days ago, and it was very obviously dishonest propaganda. Two or three of the tricks they were playing with the data jumped right out at me, and I’m absolutely no expert.

    For decades, the WSJ Op-Ed page has often specialized in dishonest propaganda, which may frequently deceive many of the people who read it. The problem in this particular case is that the Coronavirus is *not* deceived, and its opinion counts for much more than that of the readers.

    I noticed yesterday that Coronavirus deaths in New York had reached 140 per day, nearly triple what it had been just three or four days earlier. At that rate, it may reach 500-1000 per day within another week or so. The local health care system will then collapse and deaths will more than quadruple.

    Personally, I think we’ll be lucky to avoid over a million deaths by early summer. Maybe the figure will be much higher.

    https://www.unz.com/runz/correctly-estimating-coronavirus-infections/#comment-3801379

    • Disagree: UK
    • Replies: @John Burns, Gettysburg Partisan
    What amazes me about your behavior right now is that you're applying your correct distrust of government to the wrong people.

    It is obvious that the most corrupt people are the ones who are trying to force a foolish "lockdown" down our throats.

    Among white countries, only Sweden, Belarus, and to some degree Britain have shown any sense at all.

    https://www.nytimes.com/2020/03/28/world/europe/sweden-coronavirus.html

    As Swedish leaders have said, "We are not in the containment phase. We are in the mitigation phase."

    President Alexander Lukashenko says the West is gripped by "mass psychosis" and this clearly includes you and everyone else who are buying into the junk science of Ferguson and the police state hysteria of the same corrupt corporate media that you normally otherwise reject. You openly have wrote at length about your conviction that the government, Jewish elite, and devilish statists are lying to us about World War Two; lying to us about the Holocaust; lying to us about 9/11; lying to us about a host of things. Yet you accept this nonsense.

    Cuomo has admitted, publicly, that it wasn't the best idea to force sick old people inside with the healthy.

    Lukashenko is right. God help the Belarussians to continue their soccer games.

    , @Thomas
    Number of US cases today: 112,468
    Total deaths: 1,841

    That's consistent with a mortality rate of 1.5%. Both numbers have been consistently moving on an upward path of a 20% or so increase per day for the past 4 days.

    , @gcochran
    On target.
  173. @LondonBob
    Actually we aren't as locked down as other countries, people are still encouraged to go to work if they can't work from home. The reality is there hasn't been reversal it was always about managing the infection and still is. No matter how much lefty twitter insists otherwise. As we know Neil Ferguson came up with the most alarmest figures he could, then got called to for it and then backtracked.

    I had some lefties claiming Sweden had also backtracked, actually all they had done was introduce some restrictions on gatherings of more than fifty, again not understanding that herd immunity does involves certain restrictions.

    I appreciate your comments here, Bob. You’ve been providing good antidotes to what the Belarussian strong man correctly calls “mass psychosis.”

    Also, as a red-blooded American, your name always reminds me of “English Bob” from the movie Unforgiven. I appreciate that. I wish I could buy you a drink on Independence Day.

  174. @Redneck farmer
    More like a quarter of our taxes go to the military. Half of our taxes go to those citizens, who after decades of hard work and toil in improving our country, bitch about the results.
    The ones most vulnerable to Corona-Chan.

    Total Federal income tax estimates for 2020 = $1.9 Trillion.
    Total pissed away on the useless dipshit military >$1 Trillion.

    Total Corporate tax btw only about $285 billion despite all the sniveling from the Little Linda Graham’s

  175. Or:
    They just left supply chain considerations for critical/life-saving bottlenecks, out of the model.

    There are some ways non-health professionals should probably be brought in to advice.

  176. @Ron Unz

    Dr. John Ioannidis of Stanford, a legitimate expert in the field, is now predicting a total death rate as .01% to 0.1% of those who are exposed to the virus....See John Ioannidis’ recent article in the Wall Street Journal (excerpts here).
     
    Someone else just asked me about that ridiculous WSJ op-ed, and here's part of my comment:

    I read it a couple of days ago, and it was very obviously dishonest propaganda. Two or three of the tricks they were playing with the data jumped right out at me, and I’m absolutely no expert.

    For decades, the WSJ Op-Ed page has often specialized in dishonest propaganda, which may frequently deceive many of the people who read it. The problem in this particular case is that the Coronavirus is *not* deceived, and its opinion counts for much more than that of the readers.

    I noticed yesterday that Coronavirus deaths in New York had reached 140 per day, nearly triple what it had been just three or four days earlier. At that rate, it may reach 500-1000 per day within another week or so. The local health care system will then collapse and deaths will more than quadruple.

    Personally, I think we’ll be lucky to avoid over a million deaths by early summer. Maybe the figure will be much higher.
     
    https://www.unz.com/runz/correctly-estimating-coronavirus-infections/#comment-3801379

    What amazes me about your behavior right now is that you’re applying your correct distrust of government to the wrong people.

    It is obvious that the most corrupt people are the ones who are trying to force a foolish “lockdown” down our throats.

    Among white countries, only Sweden, Belarus, and to some degree Britain have shown any sense at all.

    https://www.nytimes.com/2020/03/28/world/europe/sweden-coronavirus.html

    As Swedish leaders have said, “We are not in the containment phase. We are in the mitigation phase.”

    President Alexander Lukashenko says the West is gripped by “mass psychosis” and this clearly includes you and everyone else who are buying into the junk science of Ferguson and the police state hysteria of the same corrupt corporate media that you normally otherwise reject. You openly have wrote at length about your conviction that the government, Jewish elite, and devilish statists are lying to us about World War Two; lying to us about the Holocaust; lying to us about 9/11; lying to us about a host of things. Yet you accept this nonsense.

    Cuomo has admitted, publicly, that it wasn’t the best idea to force sick old people inside with the healthy.

    Lukashenko is right. God help the Belarussians to continue their soccer games.

    • Replies: @Ron Unz

    What amazes me about your behavior right now is that you’re applying your correct distrust of government to the wrong people.
     
    Well, in my comment I mentioned that the daily Coronavirus death toll in New York had tripled in the last few days, and hit 140 yesterday. I thought it might reach 500-1000 per day within a week or so.

    Someone just brought to my attention that it just now hit 209 in the last 24 hours:

    https://www.dailymail.co.uk/news/article-8163365/President-Trump-quarantine-New-York-Connecticut-New-Jersey-amid-pandemic.html

    Offhand, it looks pretty exponential to me. Are you claiming those totals are just imaginary and the people in New York aren't actually dying?
    , @Lot
    Will he stop when his prediction of “500-1000 a day” just in NY next week, then “health system collapse” and 4x that number, never actually happens?

    Nahhhh.

    https://cdn.kapwing.com/final_5e7d91a4d7790d0016b6c808_508228.jpg

    For the record, here’s the prediction for April 4:

    “ I think we’ll probably see 500-1000 daily NY deaths within a week or so. Not long afterward, the local health system will collapse, and deaths will then probably quadruple.”

    I take this to mean, at minimum, 3 days at 500+, and then at least 1 day of 2000+.

    Here’s another Ron Unz specific prediction:

    “ Personally, I think we’ll be lucky to avoid over a million deaths by early summer. Maybe the figure will be much higher.”
  177. @Altai

    What changed? Partly the international epidemic shifted from Asia (which has immigrant communities and transportation links on the West Coast) to Italy and Europe (which have immigrant communities and transportation links on the East Coast). Partly the West Coast had some good policy whereas New York had terrible policy (while California was instituting shelter-in-place, Governor Cuomo was vetoing NYC’s shelter-in-place order and later griping about the term shelter-in-place’s etymology).
     
    Maybe Scott is a bit of an out of touch West Coaster but there really aren't too large immigrant communities from Italy in the East Coast anymore, their descendants yes, but the familial links back to their homelands were broken and few Italian-Americans trace much of any link to Lombardy. America really hasn't been much of a land of opportunity for anyone from a first world country for a long time.

    The outbreak in the US seems to have been mediated by religious practices among Orthodox Jews and spread through their social network such as schools. Additionally the outbreak was mediated in the West by rich tourists, principally skiers.

    Cuomo even sent the army to lockdown the town of New Rochelle whose synagogue seems to have been the core of the spread. When I say lockdown, I mean you can't even get your own food, the army bring it to you.

    I'm still shocked the US didn't immediately shut down direct flights from Milan on Feb 26th when it was immediately clear the outbreak in Lombardy was out of control.

    religious practices

    What is this, besides being huddled around something, and may be kissing the same object? I am not aware of anything like sharing a drink from same cup. I know there may be some singing and dancing in close quarters, but these are all way, way worse in a bar or club where it is dark and people have even fewer inhibitions about personal space.

  178. Scott Alexander, the same Doofus from the other day’s post showing infantile understanding of finance….yeah, I’ll trust him.

    Get a grip Steve.

  179. LOL at Steve for flat up assuming the British plan has “gone wrong.”

    You’re a great guy, though, Steve, and I hope you get to hit the golf course soon.

  180. Some patients make it off venatlators after treatment with new HIV/breast cancer drug. May be promising, considering 8/9 out of 10 incubated coronavirus paitents don’t recover after the point breathing assistance is required.

    “Two coronavirus patients in New York City were treated with a new drug ‘fast-tracked’ for HIV and breast cancer – and they went from being on ventilators in the ICU to regular hospital in a matter of days.

    Leronlimab has only been tested in seven critically ill patients thus far, but two are now free from ventilators, and another two more show signs that the severe inflammation sending their lungs into organ failure are subsiding.”

    https://www.dailymail.co.uk/health/article-8161973/Two-COVID-29-patients-taken-ventilators-days-experimental-treatment.html

  181. More scary pictures of plastic curtains and empty beds that look like straight from the set of Contagion 2 (TBD) or 28 Months Later (also TBD):

  182. @keypusher
    America’s death rate has been tracking Germany’s rate throughout the crisis. You’d just never know that by watching or reading the news.

    Well, yes and no. Through 3/27:

    -We have half the (diagnosed) case rate of Germany (315 per million versus 607 per million) but a slightly higher death rate (5 per million versus 4 per million (versus 2 per million in China, by the way)). The world death rate is currently 3.5 per million.

    -We have a 1.6% mortality rate for diagnosed cases (1,696/104,126) versus 0.7% for Germany (351/50,871).

    https://www.worldometers.info/coronavirus/

    That said, our death rate is obviously lower than most Western European countries, especially Italy and Spain. Possible explanations:

    -more ventilators per capita
    -more ICU beds per capita
    -we're at an earlier stage in the pandemic than they are, so (i) unlike in parts of Spain and Italy, our health care systems haven't been overwhelmed (ii) a lot of sick people in the USA haven't gotten around to dying yet. Note that our rate of growth in cases is now a lot higher than Italy or Spain. https://www.ft.com/coronavirus-latest
    (scroll down to case trajectories graph).
    -virus strains not as virulent here
    -??

    That said, our death rate is obviously lower than most Western European countries, especially Italy and Spain. Possible explanations:

    As far as I can tell, last two or three flu seasons have been quite mild in Europe, leading to more people living overtime.

    (It’s hard to get any numerical data – all those “flu watches” only offer colored maps suitable for a five-year old, or journalists; see the winter peaks on EuroMOMO charts though.)

    • Replies: @Mr. Anon
    The Euro MOMO data is the best I've seen. Those winter peaks are amazingly regular - not that they happen every year, but that when they do happen, the onset seems to be almost right at January 1st. I wonder if it's the hang-on-effect. Most of those peaks represent old people dying. Perhaps a lot of them hang on to see one more Christmas and New Year.

    Stephen McIntyre has dug up similar looking data for pneumonia in the United States. The peaks for the last two years were relatively low. So, as you mention, there are a lot of old people who were not swept away over those last two years but who are living on borrowed time, if you will. It's analagous to forest fires - if you have a couple of quite summers in a row with few fires, you build up alot of underbrush. And when the drought year comes................
  183. @HA
    "At that time, a societal resistance to chaos, which we appear to have lost, will be of great value."

    The people who were willing to put on gas masks and live in tunnels like rats were precisely the ones that made it through the London blitz and the firebombing of Dresden. Whereas the brave fools who ignored the sirens and went about their daily routine because, hey, death is preferable to strapping on protection and cowering in a shelter, were far more likely to be given their preferred option.

    Yeah, people in the past were "resistant to chaos" about losing thousands to plagues and diseases. But they were sanguine about economic downturns, too. You think that those who endured the bomb shelters and the years of rationing and hardship that followed would look kindly on those who are now wetting their breeches over their 401k's? Be honest enough to admit that you're sweating bullets too, hypocrite -- it's just over a matter that YOU regard as being most important. You're not as resistant to chaos as you fancy yourself to be.

    This isn't the last time China unleashes some wet-market biological freak show on the planet. And the next time, maybe it WILL be bio-terrorism that is to blame. But if it goes down like that, then before the thing is released, whoever wants to ensure that the virus will take out as many as possible will first ensure that a horde of naysayers are loudly spouting off about how this is gonna be no big deal, and whatever comes, we can just ride it out and live the way we always have, so no masks or quarantines for me, no way. That won't be difficult, because apparently, a number of useful idiots are willing to do that for free. So, thanks so much for that.

    Not many people died in the Blitz. Of either variety. In Hamburg everybody died. Of either variety.

    • Replies: @HA
    "Not many people died in the Blitz. Of either variety. In Hamburg everybody died. Of either variety."

    Thanks, but that is written with 20/20 hindsight, and so it does not alter my argument. A fair number of buildings were indeed flattened during the Blitz, and I'm going out on a limb and saying that those dumb enough to ignore the sirens and stay inside those buildings had lower odds of survival in general. Not always, of course -- sometimes the roof of the bomb shelter caves in whereas the bomb missed the building all those people had just fled, but we're talking about general cases.

    In Dresden, at least Vonnegut made it out alive. He was in a meat locker three stories underground. Maybe not a bomb shelter per se, but close enough to make my point.

    , @dearieme
    I don't suppose that the Germans who bombed towns in the Spanish Civil War thought "What will happen if some other country proves to be better at this than we are?"
  184. @Ron Unz

    You bought the world’s most sophisticated hammer, so everything looks like a nail, even when it turns out to be nitroglycerin.
     
    Ha, ha, that's a pretty good metaphor...

    But what's odd is that I'd been reading about the whole ventilator/ICU issue for weeks on comment-threads before the Brilliant British Brains around Boris Johnson announced their plans to solve the Coronavirus problem by killing maybe a million or two million of their own citizens.

    Isn't Johnson just some sort of Neocon? It wouldn't surprise me if the people around him are a bunch of dimwits...

    >> before the Brilliant British Brains around Boris Johnson announced their plans to solve the Coronavirus problem by killing maybe a million or two million of their own citizens<<

    Update: now Boris himself has tested positive for COVID-19 and no reports yet of him reporting to the hospice facility to gasp out his last few thoughts. I guess those "millions" to be left to die don't include VIPs such as Himself.

    Even Madonna isn't ready to hang it up.

    Another small matter, "herd immunity" isn't necessarily applicable to COVID-19. Some who tested positive, were "cured" have retested positive again. Also, some early Chinese evidence that any immunity from survival by infected individuals is short term, a few months. So who wants to volunteer to keep getting potentially lethal infections?

    Though maybe Boris is running up and down the aisles of Parliament coughing on fellow MPs, doing these blokes a "favor" you see. Here, here! Pip pip! Time for a cuppa now…

  185. @Intelligent Dasein
    Thus, just as I said in the earlier thread, it's all about sparing the healthcare system from the odious burden of doing its own job. "What? We (hypothetically) may not have enough ventilators? Quick, shut down the country!" I mean, far be it from them to do anything crass like triage respiratory care, make broader use of other supportive therapies, jury-rig some makeshift ventilators, and rush more into production.

    No, it's obvious now that this whole stupid overreaction was all about circling the wagons around the precious healthcare system and involuntarily conscripting the citizenry to fight it its battles for it, because the agencies that we spend hundreds of billions of dollars on every year were caught absolutely flat-footed when put to a very minor test of their abilities by a slightly-worse-than-the-flu coronavirus.

    Now it seems like things are not even that bad and we aren't actually running out of ventilators. Our ruling class collectively wet their pants, spent two trillion dollars, disrupted millions of lives, and plunged us into the final bread and circuses phase of our tottering imperium, all because their bloated healthcare apparatus could not handle a miniscule public health emergency and they were afraid of looking like idiots before their Boomer electorate. What a pitiful legacy to leave behind.

    No, it’s obvious now that this whole stupid overreaction was all about circling the wagons around the precious healthcare system and involuntarily conscripting the citizenry to fight it its battles for it (…)

    They didn’t even care to hide this intent.

    Drink!

  186. @HA
    "At that time, a societal resistance to chaos, which we appear to have lost, will be of great value."

    The people who were willing to put on gas masks and live in tunnels like rats were precisely the ones that made it through the London blitz and the firebombing of Dresden. Whereas the brave fools who ignored the sirens and went about their daily routine because, hey, death is preferable to strapping on protection and cowering in a shelter, were far more likely to be given their preferred option.

    Yeah, people in the past were "resistant to chaos" about losing thousands to plagues and diseases. But they were sanguine about economic downturns, too. You think that those who endured the bomb shelters and the years of rationing and hardship that followed would look kindly on those who are now wetting their breeches over their 401k's? Be honest enough to admit that you're sweating bullets too, hypocrite -- it's just over a matter that YOU regard as being most important. You're not as resistant to chaos as you fancy yourself to be.

    This isn't the last time China unleashes some wet-market biological freak show on the planet. And the next time, maybe it WILL be bio-terrorism that is to blame. But if it goes down like that, then before the thing is released, whoever wants to ensure that the virus will take out as many as possible will first ensure that a horde of naysayers are loudly spouting off about how this is gonna be no big deal, and whatever comes, we can just ride it out and live the way we always have, so no masks or quarantines for me, no way. That won't be difficult, because apparently, a number of useful idiots are willing to do that for free. So, thanks so much for that.

    Be honest enough to admit that you’re sweating bullets too, hypocrite — it’s just over a matter that YOU regard as being most important.

    Not sure what you’re talking about here, I’m not sweating over my 401k or the economic downturn. My point was that a society that has the resiliancy to function at a reasonable level even in the midst of chaos, or at least to quickly rebound from such, may, in the long run, outperform a society that goes on lockdown habitually. Otherwise, thanks for your response.

    • Replies: @HA
    "Not sure what you’re talking about here, I’m not sweating over my 401k or the economic downturn."

    Fair enough, I'll take you at your word, and retract what I said to you and redirect it to those who DO accuse everyone around them about panicking over the virus even though their own panic -- be it about angering the gods of the Dow, or the imminent death of the 2nd amendment, or the impending state control and neverending martial law -- is palpable and contains just as much or more hysteria.

    I don't think Steve Sailer -- to take one example -- is panicking. He's saying, let's get all the info we can on this, and then make a rational choice based on that info. That's what Pence is saying, that's what Birx is saying. Any hesitancy to lower the drawbridge absent some tighter error bands around the prevalence and R_0 and other parameters associated with this virus (with and without aggressive measures) is due to a rational awareness of risks and uncertainties at the tail distribution, something that should be evident even to people like myself who agree that the most likely final verdict continues to be "really, it wasn't that big a deal in comparison with all the other deaths from regular flu".

  187. @Curle
    I presume you mean Russia/USSR, but I’m thinking a different rival and that they lost their opportunity between 1861-65.

    No, he must mean the one I presume you mean: Germany.

    Ludicrously, all Brits with any influence unthinkingly accept and fanatically demand also that you and I accept without argument that the defeat of Germany in 1918 and again in 1945 were moments of great triumph, both of arms and of some higher morality, against a dangerous foe, one ravenous for British goods and Empire.

    But Germany was neither of these things, and bounced back ferociously from 1933 and again, more carefully, but with more lasting effect from the mid 1950s, while “victorious” Britain first effectively ceded its Empire to the USA after 1918 and then liquidated it completely after 1945.

    Neither the Kaiser nor the Fuehrer had ever either worked for or desired such a result, disastrous as they both knew it would be for civilisation and the white race.

    But Wilson and Roosevelt? Another story.

    • Replies: @UK
    Germany "bounced back" from total defeat "ferociously" twice and you don't think they were a proper threat?
    , @Art Deco
    But Germany was neither of these things,

    Thanks for the ex cathedra pronouncement. Been an education.
    , @Anonymous
    It's power that counts, not sentiments, which can change overnight.

    Britain might have been willing to tolerate Germany conquering Eastern Europe, but even that was a stretch, and Hitler breaking the Munich agreement made it impossible.
    , @BB753
    "But Wilson and Roosevelt? Another story."

    Add to that list the masonic stooge Churchill. He knew he was destroying Great Britain but probably had a great time playing the part of Britain's greatest patriot ever. He must have had great fun carpet-bombing civilians in Germany pointlessly too.
  188. anon[559] • Disclaimer says:
    @jill
    Everything that is wrong with Britain is summed up in this one regulation. I laughed at this at first but after a while I realized how pathetic it is that a government feels it is necessary to make such a statement. How must they view the intelligence level of it’s citizens?

    From the UK Coronavirus Regulations 2020:

    “Reg 6(2)(m) – to avoid injury, e.g. if your house is on fire you don’t have to stay inside it. 20/24”

    https://threadreaderapp.com/thread/1243471335700992000.html

    Some very sobering thoughts from the frontline:

    “I am an ER MD in New Orleans. Class of 98. Every one of my colleagues have now seen several hundred Covid 19 patients and this is what I think I know.”

    https://texags.com/forums/84/topics/3102444

    Jill: Sobering indeed

    “I am an ER MD in New Orleans. Class of 98. Every one of my colleagues have now seen several hundred Covid 19 patients and this is what I think I know.”

    Day 10- Cytokine storm leading to acute ARDS and multiorgan failure. You can literally watch it happen in a matter of hours.

    https://texags.com/forums/84/topics/3102444

    We aren’t doing containment.

  189. @Intelligent Dasein
    Thus, just as I said in the earlier thread, it's all about sparing the healthcare system from the odious burden of doing its own job. "What? We (hypothetically) may not have enough ventilators? Quick, shut down the country!" I mean, far be it from them to do anything crass like triage respiratory care, make broader use of other supportive therapies, jury-rig some makeshift ventilators, and rush more into production.

    No, it's obvious now that this whole stupid overreaction was all about circling the wagons around the precious healthcare system and involuntarily conscripting the citizenry to fight it its battles for it, because the agencies that we spend hundreds of billions of dollars on every year were caught absolutely flat-footed when put to a very minor test of their abilities by a slightly-worse-than-the-flu coronavirus.

    Now it seems like things are not even that bad and we aren't actually running out of ventilators. Our ruling class collectively wet their pants, spent two trillion dollars, disrupted millions of lives, and plunged us into the final bread and circuses phase of our tottering imperium, all because their bloated healthcare apparatus could not handle a miniscule public health emergency and they were afraid of looking like idiots before their Boomer electorate. What a pitiful legacy to leave behind.

    Wrong and wrong. And just sort of confused and intractable. The virus is real and very nasty. If you don’t know of someone within 2 degrees of separation from you dying of it, don’t worry, you will. I do. This is not being done to save “our precious healthcare system.” What does that even mean?

    If you mean they’re trying to save Obamacare instead of getting socialized medicine like civilized people have, then I’m with you. They’re always trying to do that.

    But I suspect that’s not what you mean. Surely you don’t mean they caused the virus in order to save Obamacare. Or that saving Obamacare is the primary reason for the current lockdowns. Really?

    “Looking like idiots in front of their Boomer electorate”? What does that mean. All I can get out of it is that you hate old people, just like “the youth” of 1968 did.

    So go out and mingle, then. You’re a child. So you’re safe. No people your age dying. Except for the ones who are.

    Incidentally. Hating old people is identity politics, one of the best kinds. Now there is a PTB plot for ya. And you’re doing their bidding in spades. Heating up the inter-demographic hatred. Good work. They’d give you a medal if it wouldn’t give the game away.

    • Replies: @anonguy

    Hating old people is identity politics, one of the best kinds.
     
    And also a clear violation of "Honor your mother and father", so Biblical grade sin.

    Unironically, as the kids say these days.
  190. @Che Blutarsky

    I wonder if a field that really needs the best people only once every decade or so can even attract the people it needs.
     
    When the cream of the quantitative sciences are going into the parasitical field of finance, in order to optimize "financial engineering" mechanisms that squeeze money out of the productive sector and add no real value, your society is nearing its end stage.

    But capitalism is good. Don’t you read?

    Just look how it’s handling the current emergency.

  191. A visual representation of pandemics throughout history:

    https://www.visualcapitalist.com/history-of-pandemics-deadliest/

    The global economy was euthanized and more of our freedoms were canceled for next to nothing.

    • Replies: @Paleo Liberal
    No, that is not what it means.

    The Coronavirus pandemic apparently spreads more easily and has possibly has a higher death rate than the Spanish Flu.

    If the Spanish Flu killed 1-3% of the world’s population at a time when the world was less interconnected than today, what could Coronavirus do? The possibility of 100-200 million + deaths is quite real if too little is done.

    In the US alone, we are looking at a possibility of millions of deaths.

    That is not “next to nothing “. There has never been an event in US history that has killed over 1 million citizens. The largest group deaths were in the 600-750 thousand range, which happened twice: the Civil War and the Spanish Flu.
  192. Why has the British Government reclassified COVID-19 to no longer be a “High Consequence Infectious Disease”?

    https://www.gov.uk/guidance/high-consequence-infectious-diseases-hcid#status-of-covid-19

    As of 19 March 2020, COVID-19 is no longer considered to be a high consequence infectious diseases (HCID) in the UK.

    As far as I can tell from their website, they have not revised this assessment. But they are certainly treating it as high consequence.

    • Replies: @dearieme
    Because, perhaps, it's not as awful as these ones? But then you knew that already, didn't you? Are you trying to mislead readers?

    Argentine haemorrhagic fever (Junin virus) Andes virus infection (hantavirus)
    Bolivian haemorrhagic fever (Machupo virus) Avian influenza A H7N9 and H5N1
    Crimean Congo haemorrhagic fever (CCHF) Avian influenza A H5N6 and H7N7
    Ebola virus disease (EVD) Middle East respiratory syndrome (MERS)
    Lassa fever Monkeypox
    Lujo virus disease Nipah virus infection
    Marburg virus disease (MVD) Pneumonic plague (Yersinia pestis)
    Severe fever with thrombocytopaenia Severe acute respiratory syndrome (SARS)*
    syndrome (SFTS)

  193. Ludicrously, all Brits with any influence unthinkingly accept and fanatically demand also that you and I accept without argument that the defeat of Germany in 1918 and again in 1945 were moments of great triumph, both of arms and of some higher morality, against a dangerous foe, one ravenous for British goods and Empire.

    I guess you’ve never heard of Niall Ferguson. https://www.amazon.com/Pity-War-Explaining-World/dp/0465057128

    “ravenous for British goods and Empire” Sorry, that’s just hysterical bullshit. I’ve never heard that. 1945? Higher morality? Well, the British did help rid the world of a gang of genocidal lunatics.

  194. Here’s an interesting thing. I live in a rural community in North Florida. The next towns are 10 miles to the east, 20 miles to the south, 30 miles to the west, and maybe 50 miles to the north.

    Last week my county had 4 positives for corona virus and they were all located, according to the front page of the local paper, at the Nursing and Rehab facility in the center of town.

    How is it that the corona virus, like Santa Claus locating where children live, can float over the land and immediately identify a landing place where there are vulnerable elderly people and go down through the chimney or air-conditioner intake to the inside to find a nice pair of lungs to colonize?

    Of course that is not what happens, but it is notable that corona virus appears where there are people who are old and lame, like a lion on the savannah eying up a herd of wildebeest and enumerating the sickly young and the failing elders as possible dining opportunities.

    So maybe we cannot hide the halt and the lame. If they go to a new place to shelter, the virus may follow them there.

    A certain rich merchant was walking through the market place of Baghdad when, standing across the street, he suddenly saw the figure of Death, beckoning him.

    The terrified man ran home, mounted his fastest horse, and raced five hundred miles to Samara.

    Later that night, there was a knock at the door. When the man answered it, there stood Death.
    “Why did you beckon me in the market place of Baghdad today?” asked the man. “I did not beckon you.” replied Death. “I was merely surprised to see you, for I knew that tonight, we had an appointment in Samara.

    • Replies: @Jenner Ickham Errican

    we had an appointment in Samara
     
    The obvious lesson: Stay the fuck out of Samara.
    , @SimplePseudonymicHandle
    Toxoplasma gondii uses cats in its lifecycle wherein it infects mice, rabbits and rats - in whom it causes encephalitis. Rodents infected with the condition lose their inhibition to cat odors and become more likely prey to the cats, who pick up the toxoplasma gondii from their meal and pass it on to other rodents via feces and excrement.

    COVID-19 seems to have a similar mechanism - causing either no symptoms or negligible symptoms in the majority of its victims, thereby recruiting them as agents of its spread. Young, unaffected or barely affected, spread it to the vulnerable, who may be vulnerable due to bad luck (co-morbidity with the flu), bad facts (co-morbidity with hypertension or diabetes) or bad timing (co-morbid with being elderly).

    Implicit in all of these things are factors related to qualities of being human: we have endowments for understanding, and endowments to act, or not act, based upon our understanding.

    As relates "the figure of Death" and Samara - Providence, is equally concerned with the use of our agency - all of Job was a test of agency - and Providence, if such a thing exists, is no excuse for turning our backs on agency.

  195. @Jonathan Mason
    Here's an interesting thing. I live in a rural community in North Florida. The next towns are 10 miles to the east, 20 miles to the south, 30 miles to the west, and maybe 50 miles to the north.

    Last week my county had 4 positives for corona virus and they were all located, according to the front page of the local paper, at the Nursing and Rehab facility in the center of town.

    How is it that the corona virus, like Santa Claus locating where children live, can float over the land and immediately identify a landing place where there are vulnerable elderly people and go down through the chimney or air-conditioner intake to the inside to find a nice pair of lungs to colonize?

    Of course that is not what happens, but it is notable that corona virus appears where there are people who are old and lame, like a lion on the savannah eying up a herd of wildebeest and enumerating the sickly young and the failing elders as possible dining opportunities.

    So maybe we cannot hide the halt and the lame. If they go to a new place to shelter, the virus may follow them there.

    A certain rich merchant was walking through the market place of Baghdad when, standing across the street, he suddenly saw the figure of Death, beckoning him.

    The terrified man ran home, mounted his fastest horse, and raced five hundred miles to Samara.

    Later that night, there was a knock at the door. When the man answered it, there stood Death.
    "Why did you beckon me in the market place of Baghdad today?" asked the man. "I did not beckon you." replied Death. "I was merely surprised to see you, for I knew that tonight, we had an appointment in Samara.

    we had an appointment in Samara

    The obvious lesson: Stay the fuck out of Samara.

  196. anon[361] • Disclaimer says:

    Finland puts its plan in place: seal off the capitol city

    Finland blocks roads to Helsinki to curb coronavirus spread
    https://news.trust.org/item/20200327214859-ttfb5

    This last graph is so globalhomo:

    Due to the coronavirus outbreak, Finland will also temporarily suspend its operations in Iraq, where some 80 Finnish soldiers have participated in international counter terrorism efforts by training Kurdish peshmerga troops, the Finnish army said.

    Why? Because everyone else is doing it? Because “coalition of the willing”? Because no one closer than Finland can teach tactical basics to Kurds? Or because the government got some money?

    In India, Indians ordered off the streets. Indian cops enforce it with rattan canes:

    At the very end an official who may be Sikh has a couple of younger men doing deep knee bends, perhaps they said they were on the street for the exercise. Cops in America could do this stuff 100 years ago. Not now.

    • Replies: @danand

    "In India, Indians ordered off the streets"
     
    and into the mask making "factories":

    https://youtu.be/a8SAYIGZA3g

    Perhaps best to stick with 3M masks; so your remaining relatives can recover a large settlement...LOL
  197. You bought the world’s most sophisticated hammer, so everything looks like a nail, even when it turns out to be nitroglycerin.

    Jeremy Corbyn nailed it when he said the Tories’ instincts were for “free market economics and the small state”. Laissez faire is all about competition for being lean and efficient. Here is a 2018 talk a top fellow now on the international panel of experts. I have linked to the bit where he talks about the massive economic cost to Hong kong of the original Severe Acute Respiratory Syndrome Coronavirus (SARS-CoV), caused by the timely response of the Hong Kong government . The current epidemic is because of SARS-CoV-2. The ‘-2’ is there to distinguish it from the original SARS-CoV in Guangdong eighteen years ago, which because it not amount to as much as feared, and put a lot of financial hurt on Hong Kong throit them being they were quick off the mark with counter infection measures, must have affected the mindset of modelers (Piot was certainly aware of it) and governments.

    In the immediate aftermath of Brexit, the UK could not bear to react as if yet another SARS was something out of Soderbergh’s Contagion. Unfortunately the unknown unknowns included certain self perceived shortcomings of Chinese males. Examination of SARS-CoV-2’s structure indicates it is probably due to the November 2019 recombination of a bat virus with a virus from a pangolin. Pangolin scales are a ‘masculinity enhancer’, or so the Chinese seem to think. Anyway, in SARS-CoV-2, the Angiotensin Converting Enzyme 2 (ACE2) receptor binding domain is from a pangolin, and that component of the chimerical virus is the key to how it enters human cells to infect them vastly more effectively than the original SARS of almost two decades ago that didn’t spread, but cost a lot to mobilise against.

    https://www.kirkusreviews.com/book-reviews/andreas-wagner/life-finds-a-way/ Most readers associate evolution with Darwinian natural selection, but Wagner points out its limited creative capacity. In natural selection, a better adapted organism produces more offspring. This preserves good traits and discards bad ones until it reaches a peak of fitness. This process works perfectly in an “adaptive landscape” with a single peak, but it fails when there are many—and higher—peaks. Natural selection never chooses the worse over the better, so it can’t descend. Wagner devotes most of his book to the 20th-century discovery of the sources of true biological creativity: genetic drift, recombination, and other processes that inject diversity into the evolutionary process

    The UK government eventually had a lockdown, yet allowed construction sites (of which there are an immense number in London) to stay open. The workers are recruited en masse aboard and apart from being foreign they are all ostensibly self employed. Them swarming in the Tube was like the plague rats scene of Nosferatu. But pumping up the property market is what modern economies run on. Now they will have to be given welfare even though, like the indigenous self employed, they paid nothing toward those benefits. Levying high taxes and refusing to let people wriggle out of tax is 100% of why Germany is no much better placed. It is like Switzerland, Taleb’s example of anti fragility.

    It isn’t good to be too lean and punch about your weight, so to speak, because efficiency is to a stipulated end and thus one dimensional and when unexpected demands pop op you don’t have uncommitted reserves handy. The financial asset stripping and offshoring/deindustrialization of Western productive capacity, so that when huge numbers of masks are suddenly needed we cannot make them fast enough, is why countries like Germany with their far less laissez faire outlook are like fat individuals who coast catastrophe, while the apparently fit ones find they are dangerously low on resources to call on. A reviewer of the above linked book writes:

    The human parallel with natural selection is laissez faire competition, which is efficient but equally intolerant of trial and error. Far more productive are systems that don’t penalize failure

    Germany has shown the way that a modern state can flourish. Virtually nothing on defence, massive gold plated medical infrastructure and high taxes, supplying capital goods to China, and creating Tesla’s factory robotics. 100 questions with Peter Piot: All your COVID-19 queries answered .

  198. @Old Palo Altan
    No, he must mean the one I presume you mean: Germany.

    Ludicrously, all Brits with any influence unthinkingly accept and fanatically demand also that you and I accept without argument that the defeat of Germany in 1918 and again in 1945 were moments of great triumph, both of arms and of some higher morality, against a dangerous foe, one ravenous for British goods and Empire.

    But Germany was neither of these things, and bounced back ferociously from 1933 and again, more carefully, but with more lasting effect from the mid 1950s, while "victorious" Britain first effectively ceded its Empire to the USA after 1918 and then liquidated it completely after 1945.

    Neither the Kaiser nor the Fuehrer had ever either worked for or desired such a result, disastrous as they both knew it would be for civilisation and the white race.

    But Wilson and Roosevelt? Another story.

    Germany “bounced back” from total defeat “ferociously” twice and you don’t think they were a proper threat?

    • Replies: @Old Palo Altan
    Ah - but the ferocity was only directed against Britain once you had declared war on them.

    Their envious eyes were looking East, and always will.
  199. @Glaivester
    It will resolve ventilator shortages by flattening the curve so that fewer people will need the ventilators at any one time.

    The herd immunity strategy was based on controlling infection rates so that the medical system would not be overwhelmed (and in controlling the demographics of infection so that the greatest number of people from the least vulnerable populations would be infected so that they could become immune to carrying the disease later). If the hospitalization rate is higher than predicted, infection rates must be kept lower.

    More to the point, if the disease is more dangerous to young people than previously thought, or if the death rate is high even with the maximum hospital intervention, the herd immunity strategy may not work well.

    Herd immunity is really designed for a disease where there are populations for whom the disease is not a big deal (quarantine everyone else, get them all infected now and they will be barriers to disease transmission in the future) or in which medical intervention is a big factor in survival (keep transmission rates to vulnerable populations to where there will be enough hospital beds, ventilators, etc. for everyone who needs one). Otherwise, it is no more effective than doing nothing.

    The key word here is control. There’s not much evidence that any country outside of East Asia has any control over this thing, and until they do this ‘herd immunity’ stuff is just an epidemiologist’s power fantasy.

  200. anon[559] • Disclaimer says:
    @Jack D
    It's not so much a question of being hooked up but of being taken off. Doctors have a pretty good idea going in of who is going to make it in the 1st place, but OK we have a "humane" system so we hook up the 88 year old with COPD anyway to give him a fighting chance, run up the bill and prevent law suits. BUT, after you have been on there a week and still aren't breathing on your own, the chances that ANOTHER week or three is going to help is close to nil. That's where the insanity kicks in - don't you dare unplug Grandpa - we're praying for him (and ain't payin' for him) and we want you to do EVERYTHING to keep him with us.

    There is something very un-flulike in the severity of this thing.

    This account from the front is another view. https://texags.com/forums/84/topics/3102444

    This doesn’t look like the well known controversy over use of advanced medicine at end of life. Or maybe it is an extreme version of it — the shock of an ER guy seeing a hundred of them in a short period.

    However many ventilators are employed, there will be many more deaths.

    The one bizarrely encouraging thing is that they are rapidly getting an enormous amount of clinical experience quite quickly.

    • Replies: @Jack D
    This sounds very encouraging to me in some ways. First of all, he is saying that basically everyone that comes into his ER now, even for unrelated things, already has it, so the # of actual cases must be MUCH higher than the # of reported cases - there are tons of people out there who have it and don't even know it and will recover or have already recovered without ever being tested or diagnosed.

    2nd he is saying that 80% have mild symptoms. Critically, this is of people who have already presented at the ER. Generally people with mild symptoms are instructed NOT to present at the ER unless they are in distress and most follow that. So of the people who felt sick enough to seek medical attention, 80% were mild anyway. What % of the Covid infected NEVER present at the ER? I am guessing very high - maybe 80%. So those requiring hospitalization are really 20% of 20% or 4% of the infected (and 1% will die).

    He reports that 70 to 86% of ventilated covid patients will die anyway. This makes it seem like the crazy rush for ventilators is a largely a waste. Probably there is (or could be) some diagnostic predictor as to which of the ventilated have a good chance of making it and which ones don't have a snowballs chance in hell. I'm sure it's not random even if we don't know it yet (will figure it out soon). For the latter group, it should be "don't even bother". This would reduce the demand for ventilators by 3/4 immediately. Of course, this goes against the way that doctors have been trained (and they way hospitals make money) but it really wouldn't be that hard to say, "We are sorry but this is a terrible disease and there's nothing more that can be realistically done for Grandpa. We could put him on a ventilator but our experience has shown that this is only going to prolong his suffering. Only 2% of those who fit his profile survive. We can give him morphine so that he will be comfortable in his final hours or we can torture him for another week or 10 days and chances are 98% that the result will not change - we leave it up to you. And by the way, we desperately need that ventilator for some young person who we think will survive. " Most people would accept it.

  201. Yet another hysterical woman from Michigan, this time in Congress:

    It’s like we grow them on trees and in the fields up there.

  202. @Jonathan Mason
    Here's an interesting thing. I live in a rural community in North Florida. The next towns are 10 miles to the east, 20 miles to the south, 30 miles to the west, and maybe 50 miles to the north.

    Last week my county had 4 positives for corona virus and they were all located, according to the front page of the local paper, at the Nursing and Rehab facility in the center of town.

    How is it that the corona virus, like Santa Claus locating where children live, can float over the land and immediately identify a landing place where there are vulnerable elderly people and go down through the chimney or air-conditioner intake to the inside to find a nice pair of lungs to colonize?

    Of course that is not what happens, but it is notable that corona virus appears where there are people who are old and lame, like a lion on the savannah eying up a herd of wildebeest and enumerating the sickly young and the failing elders as possible dining opportunities.

    So maybe we cannot hide the halt and the lame. If they go to a new place to shelter, the virus may follow them there.

    A certain rich merchant was walking through the market place of Baghdad when, standing across the street, he suddenly saw the figure of Death, beckoning him.

    The terrified man ran home, mounted his fastest horse, and raced five hundred miles to Samara.

    Later that night, there was a knock at the door. When the man answered it, there stood Death.
    "Why did you beckon me in the market place of Baghdad today?" asked the man. "I did not beckon you." replied Death. "I was merely surprised to see you, for I knew that tonight, we had an appointment in Samara.

    Toxoplasma gondii uses cats in its lifecycle wherein it infects mice, rabbits and rats – in whom it causes encephalitis. Rodents infected with the condition lose their inhibition to cat odors and become more likely prey to the cats, who pick up the toxoplasma gondii from their meal and pass it on to other rodents via feces and excrement.

    COVID-19 seems to have a similar mechanism – causing either no symptoms or negligible symptoms in the majority of its victims, thereby recruiting them as agents of its spread. Young, unaffected or barely affected, spread it to the vulnerable, who may be vulnerable due to bad luck (co-morbidity with the flu), bad facts (co-morbidity with hypertension or diabetes) or bad timing (co-morbid with being elderly).

    Implicit in all of these things are factors related to qualities of being human: we have endowments for understanding, and endowments to act, or not act, based upon our understanding.

    As relates “the figure of Death” and Samara – Providence, is equally concerned with the use of our agency – all of Job was a test of agency – and Providence, if such a thing exists, is no excuse for turning our backs on agency.

  203. Anonymous[368] • Disclaimer says:

    What plagued Blighty was their lack of Andrew Cuomo or Gretchen Whitmer, i.e. 2 greatest mega-brains of leadership since the WWII apparently — ever present on your local streaming concern, to speak reassuringly to the rattled troops in need of soothing, and make stirring patriotic admonishment to the rando on the street

  204. @Ron Unz

    Dr. John Ioannidis of Stanford, a legitimate expert in the field, is now predicting a total death rate as .01% to 0.1% of those who are exposed to the virus....See John Ioannidis’ recent article in the Wall Street Journal (excerpts here).
     
    Someone else just asked me about that ridiculous WSJ op-ed, and here's part of my comment:

    I read it a couple of days ago, and it was very obviously dishonest propaganda. Two or three of the tricks they were playing with the data jumped right out at me, and I’m absolutely no expert.

    For decades, the WSJ Op-Ed page has often specialized in dishonest propaganda, which may frequently deceive many of the people who read it. The problem in this particular case is that the Coronavirus is *not* deceived, and its opinion counts for much more than that of the readers.

    I noticed yesterday that Coronavirus deaths in New York had reached 140 per day, nearly triple what it had been just three or four days earlier. At that rate, it may reach 500-1000 per day within another week or so. The local health care system will then collapse and deaths will more than quadruple.

    Personally, I think we’ll be lucky to avoid over a million deaths by early summer. Maybe the figure will be much higher.
     
    https://www.unz.com/runz/correctly-estimating-coronavirus-infections/#comment-3801379

    Number of US cases today: 112,468
    Total deaths: 1,841

    That’s consistent with a mortality rate of 1.5%. Both numbers have been consistently moving on an upward path of a 20% or so increase per day for the past 4 days.

  205. @jill
    Everything that is wrong with Britain is summed up in this one regulation. I laughed at this at first but after a while I realized how pathetic it is that a government feels it is necessary to make such a statement. How must they view the intelligence level of it’s citizens?

    From the UK Coronavirus Regulations 2020:

    “Reg 6(2)(m) – to avoid injury, e.g. if your house is on fire you don’t have to stay inside it. 20/24”

    https://threadreaderapp.com/thread/1243471335700992000.html

    Some very sobering thoughts from the frontline:

    “I am an ER MD in New Orleans. Class of 98. Every one of my colleagues have now seen several hundred Covid 19 patients and this is what I think I know.”

    https://texags.com/forums/84/topics/3102444

  206. @Anonymous
    There's no way that 50% of patients on ventilators left the hospital with a handshake for the doctor. If only 50% died, that means the other 50% were still languishing until someone ultimately pulled the plug. Where are all the people who have recovered from the ventilators? Do they give interviews?

    A guy on Twitter who has been predicting pieces of this way ahead of time says the ventilators are actually killing people more than covid by itself. VAP- ventilator assisted pneumonia was already killing up to 50% of vent patients before covid, and with covid it is close to 100.

    This should be investigated. A 95 year old woman beat the illness because she refused a ventilator.

    Twitter.com/lokijulianus

    True , better to avoid getting out on a ventilator. Ventilated patients often suffer from irreversable lung damage due to the ventilator.

    It is well established that mechanical ventilation can injure the lung, producing an entity known as ventilator-induced lung injury (VILI). There are various forms of VILI, including volutrauma (i.e., injury caused by overdistending the lung), atelectrauma (injury due to repeated opening/closing of lung units), and biotrauma (release of mediators that can induce lung injury or aggravate pre-existing injury, potentially leading to multiple organ failure). Experimental data in the pediatric context are in accord with the importance of VILI, and appear to show age-related susceptibility to VILI.

    evidence suggests that ventilation causes more subtle morphological and functional changes and can excite an inflammatory response within the lung. This type of injury was not recognised for many years as the pattern of damage is often indistinguishable from that seen in other forms of lung injury such as the acute respiratory distress syndrome (ARDS).

    • Replies: @vhrm
    I'm swimming well out of my lane, but in a thread a while ago i was musing about whether "iron lung" type ventilators have any role to play.
    A confident (and possibly knowledgeable) sounding commenter said "no", but there are some studies from mid 2000's that suggest it could work well and especially cause less VILI and pneumonia and also presumably no tracheal damage (since there's nothing in your throat).

    some links in this comment: (which is supposed to be a reply to the comment right above it but i clicked the wrong button so it doesn't have the link)
    https://www.unz.com/isteve/on-the-other-hand-ioannidiss-critique/#comment-3784640

    Oh hey, i see that that tread started with one of your comments too..

    Maybe the interest in ventilation now will get them another look after this crisis is over. The "intubated" kind of ventilator just seems like overall a pretty terrible way to be, except perhaps short stints during surgery or something.

  207. @Buzz Mohawk
    Point well taken, however:

    ... triage respiratory care, make broader use of other supportive therapies, jury-rig some makeshift ventilators, and rush more into production.
     
    These things are actually happening right now across our country. That is how America is supposed to work. (Well, the triaging of respiratory care hasn't been necessary yet, and that is one of the things we are trying to avoid. Otherwise, it could be YOUR grandmother -- or YOU -- who is denied.)

    Have you ever managed a group of employees in a business environment in which demand varied widely? I did years ago, about a dozen people. Much of the time we were paying all those wages for not much activity. Then once in a while things would get busy and I didn't have enough people. This is a math problem that is both statistical and one of finding the optimum. Optimization is a crucial part of our modern world, and if you don't like it, you can go out and live in the woods without it.

    I was tempted to "Agree" with your comment until I realized that there is no way for "the healthcare system" to be prepared at all times for something that rarely if ever happens. If you want that, then you must be willing to pay for it the way you pay for a military that is prepared to fight a two front war and maintain an empire, which half your federal taxes go for.

    An eductor style respirator has been around for years and only costs $15 wholesale. About the price of a hand grenade. I don’t think it’s unreasonable to stockpile those, and in military spending terms, you can get a shit load of eductors for the price of a single, useless, Littoral Combat Ship.

    Imagine if we had cut one, one single LCS class vessel and spent all that money on these expedient eductor style respirators. We would have had an easy over-supply for all domestic need in this current crisis, and could have easily sent our surplus to Italy, or on a hospital ship to help the Iranians in a gesture of compassion and to bury the hatchet with them, which would do much to tarnish the satanic image of Americans their government our own have created in their minds. And it would have done far more for peace in the middle east and national security than any number of Littoral Combat Ships, for example.

    The stimulus package burned $500 billion for ‘Corporate Liquidity’ compared to the $360 billion direct payments to citizens. More socialism for these corporations, but without any useful strings attached: like, you must use E-Verify, or you must insource all manufacturing from overseas.

    Who pays for all this? The old? Who earned their money when taxes were lower and now have largely tax protected income? The same elderly who are driving social security and medicare into insolvency?

    No, the young. The ones hardest hit by the idiotic quarantines, and least likely to be afflicted by the disease. Is there anything else we can do for the Baby Boomers and Silents?

    Do you understand why we hate you so much?

    Touch your face and breathe deep.

    • Replies: @black sea

    Do you understand why we hate you so much?

    Touch your face and breathe deep.
     
    Shouldn't you be out on a ledge somewhere?
  208. anon[361] • Disclaimer says:

    A better Petri dish has been discovered: Holland America ship that departed from B.A. Argentina on March 5 is now stuck on the west side of Panama due to COVID-19 on board. Unlike the Plague Princess in Yokohama, no one has yet been removed from the ship. Last port was in Chile back on the 17th.

    https://www.msn.com/en-us/news/us/four-dead-138-sick-on-holland-america-s-ms-zaandam-cruise-in-limbo-amid-coronavirus-crisis/ar-BB11Oc2j?ocid=msedgntp

    1243 passengers and 586 crew on board.
    4 dead of unspecified causes.
    53 passengers and 85 crew sick with something presumably respiratory that presents with symptoms of COVID-19.

    Actual numbers, from a cruise ship that has not made a port in over a week. Data!

    tl;dr
    Panama won’t allow any ship with COVID-19 to dock or transit the Canal. Two of Holland America’s cruise ships are now anchored on the Pacific side. The company is in the process of moving healthy people off of one ship and sick people off of the other: the all-healthy ship will then transit the Canal and sail to Florida, while the sick ship will have to remain off of the coast of Panama for the forseeable future.

    The US CDC should be down there with the Panamanian health officials getting all the data possible off of both ships.

  209. @UK
    Germany "bounced back" from total defeat "ferociously" twice and you don't think they were a proper threat?

    Ah – but the ferocity was only directed against Britain once you had declared war on them.

    Their envious eyes were looking East, and always will.

    • Replies: @Cortes
    Those cuddly Germans in the east (of Africa):

    https://en.m.wikipedia.org/wiki/German_East_Africa
    , @UK
    I don't buy this nonsense and no one smart did at the time. It would have been best if those wars were avoided but this cuddly old Uncle Adolf routine/Kaiser Wilhelm is assinine.
  210. The Portuguese government sets a horrific precedent by granting infinite healthcare gibs to illegals:

    Portuguese government has decreed that all asylum seekers and all undocumented migrants with pending applications for residence are automatically granted and may access healthcare and benefits. from Coronavirus

    Don’t visit unless you can stomach the libcuck hivemind filling its diapers in joy.

  211. Hatestream media hyping ‘healthy’ 25-year old and infant deaths:

    25-Year-Old California Man With No Underlying Conditions Dies Of COVID-19; Infant Dies In Illinois

    https://www.zerohedge.com/health/25-year-old-california-man-no-underlying-conditions-dies-covid-19

    Of course, out of sudden privacy concerns, there is no other information released about the ‘healthy’ 25-year old.

    That info would make it far too easy to find their Facebook page, where it would be revealed they are a 5’2″, 300 lb., pre-diabetic Squatemalan with a resting heart rate near 100 that loves drinking 3 Grande-sized Starbucks mochachinos every morning.

    • Replies: @Steve Sailer
    Or it could be a skier. We don't know.
  212. @John Burns, Gettysburg Partisan
    What amazes me about your behavior right now is that you're applying your correct distrust of government to the wrong people.

    It is obvious that the most corrupt people are the ones who are trying to force a foolish "lockdown" down our throats.

    Among white countries, only Sweden, Belarus, and to some degree Britain have shown any sense at all.

    https://www.nytimes.com/2020/03/28/world/europe/sweden-coronavirus.html

    As Swedish leaders have said, "We are not in the containment phase. We are in the mitigation phase."

    President Alexander Lukashenko says the West is gripped by "mass psychosis" and this clearly includes you and everyone else who are buying into the junk science of Ferguson and the police state hysteria of the same corrupt corporate media that you normally otherwise reject. You openly have wrote at length about your conviction that the government, Jewish elite, and devilish statists are lying to us about World War Two; lying to us about the Holocaust; lying to us about 9/11; lying to us about a host of things. Yet you accept this nonsense.

    Cuomo has admitted, publicly, that it wasn't the best idea to force sick old people inside with the healthy.

    Lukashenko is right. God help the Belarussians to continue their soccer games.

    What amazes me about your behavior right now is that you’re applying your correct distrust of government to the wrong people.

    Well, in my comment I mentioned that the daily Coronavirus death toll in New York had tripled in the last few days, and hit 140 yesterday. I thought it might reach 500-1000 per day within a week or so.

    Someone just brought to my attention that it just now hit 209 in the last 24 hours:

    https://www.dailymail.co.uk/news/article-8163365/President-Trump-quarantine-New-York-Connecticut-New-Jersey-amid-pandemic.html

    Offhand, it looks pretty exponential to me. Are you claiming those totals are just imaginary and the people in New York aren’t actually dying?

    • Replies: @Jack D
    Of course they are dying and it is tragic but there is also something very funny in the way NY counts "confirmed cases".

    Cuomo said on Friday the state recorded 7,377 new cases overnight, bringing the total number of cases in New York up to 44,635. Of those confirmed cases, 6,481 people are hospitalized, with 1,583 in intensive care.
     
    https://www.businessinsider.com/coronavirus-new-york-death-toll-past-24-hours-2020-3

    Either NY has some exceptionally virulent strain or else they are only counting as "confirmed case" people who already very sick because nowhere else on earth do 88% of Covid patients require hospitalization.
    , @anon
    Right now they are stacked up on ventilators, so total deaths will eventually equal number of ventilated patients x .7.

    Every time they vent someone, might as well plan on .7 additional deaths. And they are running out of machines, no? There is your missing stacked cordwood, that will emerge in 10 days max in the fatal statistics.
  213. @Old Palo Altan
    Ah - but the ferocity was only directed against Britain once you had declared war on them.

    Their envious eyes were looking East, and always will.

    Those cuddly Germans in the east (of Africa):

    https://en.m.wikipedia.org/wiki/German_East_Africa

  214. @Buzz Mohawk
    First of all, we need to disregard any "information" that comes from China. It may be true, or it may be false. We don't know, therefore it is useless.

    Second, ventilators (and associated breathing equipment -- anything that helps people get oxygen) do save people. Furthermore, it is very likely less horrible to die if you at least have enough air in your lungs than not. Do you want yourself to die without being able to be hooked to one because there aren't enough? No, I don't think so, so STFU!

    “First of all, we need to disregard any information that comes from China.”

    No, first of all we need to completely disregard dumbass “U.S. patriotard” bigots like you who assign “reliability” to a government’s data based on presence of their own ideological and racial animus towards that government, and on whether that government has currently been designated an “enemy” by the mendacious U.S. regime. I hope the coronavirus in the U.S. decimates all the jingoist shitheads of your ilk.

    Don’t comment on the Internet, man. You’re an embarrassment to your mother. The Internet was invented for smarter people than you.

    • Disagree: BenKenobi
    • Replies: @Jonathan Mason

    “First of all, we need to disregard any information that comes from China.”
     
    This all reminds me of a conundrum I had to deal with in an exam when I was 13 years old. It goes like this:

    Q. There are two tribes who live in the jungle (I know, I know) and you have been told that one tribe always tells the truth, and the other tribe always lies. You come to a fork in the jungle trail that is not on your map and you need directions to the local missionary camp. A tribesman is standing at the fork, but you have no way of knowing which tribe he belongs to and if you ask him, you will not know if he is telling the truth. How do you ask him for directions?

    A. You ask "If you were a member of the other tribe, which way would you tell me to go to the camp?'. You then go in the opposite direction to the one indicated, since both tribes will now indicate the wrong path.

    We have a similar situation here. Since both the Chinese and Donald Trump tell lies all the time, we know that whatever either says is not true. We should proceed accordingly and assume that if both agree on anything, then it is guaranteed to be untrue,but that if they both disagree, then neither is telling the truth. which is something different.

  215. @Old Palo Altan
    No, he must mean the one I presume you mean: Germany.

    Ludicrously, all Brits with any influence unthinkingly accept and fanatically demand also that you and I accept without argument that the defeat of Germany in 1918 and again in 1945 were moments of great triumph, both of arms and of some higher morality, against a dangerous foe, one ravenous for British goods and Empire.

    But Germany was neither of these things, and bounced back ferociously from 1933 and again, more carefully, but with more lasting effect from the mid 1950s, while "victorious" Britain first effectively ceded its Empire to the USA after 1918 and then liquidated it completely after 1945.

    Neither the Kaiser nor the Fuehrer had ever either worked for or desired such a result, disastrous as they both knew it would be for civilisation and the white race.

    But Wilson and Roosevelt? Another story.

    But Germany was neither of these things,

    Thanks for the ex cathedra pronouncement. Been an education.

  216. @anon
    There is something very un-flulike in the severity of this thing.

    This account from the front is another view. https://texags.com/forums/84/topics/3102444

    This doesn't look like the well known controversy over use of advanced medicine at end of life. Or maybe it is an extreme version of it -- the shock of an ER guy seeing a hundred of them in a short period.

    However many ventilators are employed, there will be many more deaths.

    The one bizarrely encouraging thing is that they are rapidly getting an enormous amount of clinical experience quite quickly.

    This sounds very encouraging to me in some ways. First of all, he is saying that basically everyone that comes into his ER now, even for unrelated things, already has it, so the # of actual cases must be MUCH higher than the # of reported cases – there are tons of people out there who have it and don’t even know it and will recover or have already recovered without ever being tested or diagnosed.

    2nd he is saying that 80% have mild symptoms. Critically, this is of people who have already presented at the ER. Generally people with mild symptoms are instructed NOT to present at the ER unless they are in distress and most follow that. So of the people who felt sick enough to seek medical attention, 80% were mild anyway. What % of the Covid infected NEVER present at the ER? I am guessing very high – maybe 80%. So those requiring hospitalization are really 20% of 20% or 4% of the infected (and 1% will die).

    He reports that 70 to 86% of ventilated covid patients will die anyway. This makes it seem like the crazy rush for ventilators is a largely a waste. Probably there is (or could be) some diagnostic predictor as to which of the ventilated have a good chance of making it and which ones don’t have a snowballs chance in hell. I’m sure it’s not random even if we don’t know it yet (will figure it out soon). For the latter group, it should be “don’t even bother”. This would reduce the demand for ventilators by 3/4 immediately. Of course, this goes against the way that doctors have been trained (and they way hospitals make money) but it really wouldn’t be that hard to say, “We are sorry but this is a terrible disease and there’s nothing more that can be realistically done for Grandpa. We could put him on a ventilator but our experience has shown that this is only going to prolong his suffering. Only 2% of those who fit his profile survive. We can give him morphine so that he will be comfortable in his final hours or we can torture him for another week or 10 days and chances are 98% that the result will not change – we leave it up to you. And by the way, we desperately need that ventilator for some young person who we think will survive. ” Most people would accept it.

    • Replies: @Jonathan Mason

    We can give him morphine so that he will be comfortable in his final hours or we can torture him for another week or 10 days and chances are 98% that the result will not change – we leave it up to you.
     
    More complicated than that. Morphine is a respiratory depressant, so it would quickly finish him off. Euthanasia, anyone? Then there are various laws that probably vary from state to state about who can given consent to withhold treatment, or to bump somebody off. Some of this depends on whether the person about to die has an extant living will document.

    Then there are jealousies between surviving family members over who benefits from the estate of the deceased, and who loses out, for example has to vacate a home they shared with the deceased, or used to drive the car of the deceased. It is a real minefield.
    , @Intelligent Dasein
    Gee, this all sounds very familiar.
  217. @Ron Unz

    What amazes me about your behavior right now is that you’re applying your correct distrust of government to the wrong people.
     
    Well, in my comment I mentioned that the daily Coronavirus death toll in New York had tripled in the last few days, and hit 140 yesterday. I thought it might reach 500-1000 per day within a week or so.

    Someone just brought to my attention that it just now hit 209 in the last 24 hours:

    https://www.dailymail.co.uk/news/article-8163365/President-Trump-quarantine-New-York-Connecticut-New-Jersey-amid-pandemic.html

    Offhand, it looks pretty exponential to me. Are you claiming those totals are just imaginary and the people in New York aren't actually dying?

    Of course they are dying and it is tragic but there is also something very funny in the way NY counts “confirmed cases”.

    Cuomo said on Friday the state recorded 7,377 new cases overnight, bringing the total number of cases in New York up to 44,635. Of those confirmed cases, 6,481 people are hospitalized, with 1,583 in intensive care.

    https://www.businessinsider.com/coronavirus-new-york-death-toll-past-24-hours-2020-3

    Either NY has some exceptionally virulent strain or else they are only counting as “confirmed case” people who already very sick because nowhere else on earth do 88% of Covid patients require hospitalization.

    • Replies: @res
    I think the appropriate comparison is 6,481 / 44,635 = 14.5% of cases required hospitalization.
  218. @El Dato
    > amoral proposition

    The universe _is_ amoral. Unless you less than 16 years old, you better get used to it.

    > capitalism

    What has that to do with anything?

    In fact, it sounds quite socialist to me.

    It's also an acceptable plan ... under certain circumstances.

    Excellent reply. A great deal of research will no doubt be put into the study of the spread of coronavirus. For example, why it is so virulent in Spain, but not in Portugal. Scientific research, like the Universe, is amoral.

    • Replies: @Anonymous
    I don't think the Spanish and Portuguese are that genetically similar, contrary to popular belief. Spaniards are a lot more ethnically Latin/Med than the Portuguese are, which makes them more similar to Italians, which is arguably why Italy and Spain are badly affected but Portugal not so much.

    Portuguese are mostly culturally Latinised Celts/native Iberians, the Latin/Med racial type is not a particularly large component of the native Portuguese population.

  219. @John Burns, Gettysburg Partisan
    What amazes me about your behavior right now is that you're applying your correct distrust of government to the wrong people.

    It is obvious that the most corrupt people are the ones who are trying to force a foolish "lockdown" down our throats.

    Among white countries, only Sweden, Belarus, and to some degree Britain have shown any sense at all.

    https://www.nytimes.com/2020/03/28/world/europe/sweden-coronavirus.html

    As Swedish leaders have said, "We are not in the containment phase. We are in the mitigation phase."

    President Alexander Lukashenko says the West is gripped by "mass psychosis" and this clearly includes you and everyone else who are buying into the junk science of Ferguson and the police state hysteria of the same corrupt corporate media that you normally otherwise reject. You openly have wrote at length about your conviction that the government, Jewish elite, and devilish statists are lying to us about World War Two; lying to us about the Holocaust; lying to us about 9/11; lying to us about a host of things. Yet you accept this nonsense.

    Cuomo has admitted, publicly, that it wasn't the best idea to force sick old people inside with the healthy.

    Lukashenko is right. God help the Belarussians to continue their soccer games.

    Will he stop when his prediction of “500-1000 a day” just in NY next week, then “health system collapse” and 4x that number, never actually happens?

    Nahhhh.

    For the record, here’s the prediction for April 4:

    “ I think we’ll probably see 500-1000 daily NY deaths within a week or so. Not long afterward, the local health system will collapse, and deaths will then probably quadruple.”

    I take this to mean, at minimum, 3 days at 500+, and then at least 1 day of 2000+.

    Here’s another Ron Unz specific prediction:

    “ Personally, I think we’ll be lucky to avoid over a million deaths by early summer. Maybe the figure will be much higher.”

    • Replies: @Ron Unz

    Will he stop when his prediction of “500-1000 a day” just in NY next week, then “health system collapse” and 4x that number, never actually happens?

    Nahhhh.
     
    Well, you're some fanatic pro-Israel type who's a big Trump fan, aren't you?

    Remember how a few days ago Trump was talking about maybe telling everyone to go back to work after Easter?

    At the time, I predicted he'd probably change his mind because of the exponentially-growing deaths in New York:

    https://www.unz.com/akarlin/dulce-et-decorum-est-pro-gdp-mori/#comment-3793489

    Well, the deaths have continued to grow exponentially just like I expected, and now Trump is talking about maybe imposing a strict quarantine around Greater New York, including parts of NJ and CT:

    https://www.cnn.com/2020/03/28/politics/trump-new-york-new-jersey-quarantine-coronavirus/index.html

    Perhaps I'm just forgetful, but I don't remember the federal government quarantining NYC in previous flu seasons...
  220. @The Wild Geese Howard
    Hatestream media hyping 'healthy' 25-year old and infant deaths:

    25-Year-Old California Man With No Underlying Conditions Dies Of COVID-19; Infant Dies In Illinois

    https://www.zerohedge.com/health/25-year-old-california-man-no-underlying-conditions-dies-covid-19

    Of course, out of sudden privacy concerns, there is no other information released about the 'healthy' 25-year old.

    That info would make it far too easy to find their Facebook page, where it would be revealed they are a 5'2", 300 lb., pre-diabetic Squatemalan with a resting heart rate near 100 that loves drinking 3 Grande-sized Starbucks mochachinos every morning.

    Or it could be a skier. We don’t know.

  221. @Jack D
    This sounds very encouraging to me in some ways. First of all, he is saying that basically everyone that comes into his ER now, even for unrelated things, already has it, so the # of actual cases must be MUCH higher than the # of reported cases - there are tons of people out there who have it and don't even know it and will recover or have already recovered without ever being tested or diagnosed.

    2nd he is saying that 80% have mild symptoms. Critically, this is of people who have already presented at the ER. Generally people with mild symptoms are instructed NOT to present at the ER unless they are in distress and most follow that. So of the people who felt sick enough to seek medical attention, 80% were mild anyway. What % of the Covid infected NEVER present at the ER? I am guessing very high - maybe 80%. So those requiring hospitalization are really 20% of 20% or 4% of the infected (and 1% will die).

    He reports that 70 to 86% of ventilated covid patients will die anyway. This makes it seem like the crazy rush for ventilators is a largely a waste. Probably there is (or could be) some diagnostic predictor as to which of the ventilated have a good chance of making it and which ones don't have a snowballs chance in hell. I'm sure it's not random even if we don't know it yet (will figure it out soon). For the latter group, it should be "don't even bother". This would reduce the demand for ventilators by 3/4 immediately. Of course, this goes against the way that doctors have been trained (and they way hospitals make money) but it really wouldn't be that hard to say, "We are sorry but this is a terrible disease and there's nothing more that can be realistically done for Grandpa. We could put him on a ventilator but our experience has shown that this is only going to prolong his suffering. Only 2% of those who fit his profile survive. We can give him morphine so that he will be comfortable in his final hours or we can torture him for another week or 10 days and chances are 98% that the result will not change - we leave it up to you. And by the way, we desperately need that ventilator for some young person who we think will survive. " Most people would accept it.

    We can give him morphine so that he will be comfortable in his final hours or we can torture him for another week or 10 days and chances are 98% that the result will not change – we leave it up to you.

    More complicated than that. Morphine is a respiratory depressant, so it would quickly finish him off. Euthanasia, anyone? Then there are various laws that probably vary from state to state about who can given consent to withhold treatment, or to bump somebody off. Some of this depends on whether the person about to die has an extant living will document.

    Then there are jealousies between surviving family members over who benefits from the estate of the deceased, and who loses out, for example has to vacate a home they shared with the deceased, or used to drive the car of the deceased. It is a real minefield.

    • Replies: @Jack D

    Morphine is a respiratory depressant, so it would quickly finish him off.
     
    Yes, precisely. What is the point of prolonging suffering when there is no chance of recovery? As long as you don't call it euthanasia, it isn't. It's just making the patient comfortable in his final hours. Should we withhold all morphine so the man can gasp for air a few more hours? Is this what our deity or our state demands from us?

    I understand that there can be lots of FINANCIAL motives for keeping Grandpa around past the point where he is getting any benefit from this life (not just the family but the hospital and the doctors too), maybe even some RELIGIOUS ones, but ETHICAL ones are sorely lacking.
    , @AnotherDad

    Then there are jealousies between surviving family members over who benefits from the estate of the deceased, and who loses out, for example has to vacate a home they shared with the deceased, or used to drive the car of the deceased. It is a real minefield.
     
    Depends on the family, the people, involved. Lots of people have made their wishes known. Lots of families are not disfunctional.

    But, sure, sometimes it is a minefield. But it's a minefield that people are traversing all the time--roughly 7500 people a day die in the US, most of them elderly, some slice of those in the "it's time to stop now" situation.
    , @black sea

    Morphine is a respiratory depressant, so it would quickly finish him off. Euthanasia, anyone?
     
    My father grew up in a small town in the 1930s. His father was good friends with the town physician, who confided that morphine was often the most humane therapy in late-stage terminal illness, for the reason you specified above.

    As other commenters here have mentioned, fear of dying -- particularly painful and protracted dying -- often outweighs fear of death itself. My father-in-law, in his mid-80s, died of a sudden heart attack. He had complained on the morning of his death of a stomach ache, though he did accompany my wife to do some banking. In less that 24 hours, he was gone. A fortunate death indeed.
  222. Trump importing 85,000 Democrat-voting Indians (plus all their families), with quarantine as an excuse.
    https://www.breitbart.com/politics/2020/03/27/donald-trump-dhs-starts-to-import-85000-h-1b-graduate-gig-workers/

  223. @Jack D
    Of course they are dying and it is tragic but there is also something very funny in the way NY counts "confirmed cases".

    Cuomo said on Friday the state recorded 7,377 new cases overnight, bringing the total number of cases in New York up to 44,635. Of those confirmed cases, 6,481 people are hospitalized, with 1,583 in intensive care.
     
    https://www.businessinsider.com/coronavirus-new-york-death-toll-past-24-hours-2020-3

    Either NY has some exceptionally virulent strain or else they are only counting as "confirmed case" people who already very sick because nowhere else on earth do 88% of Covid patients require hospitalization.

    I think the appropriate comparison is 6,481 / 44,635 = 14.5% of cases required hospitalization.

    • Agree: Jack D
  224. @anon
    Finland puts its plan in place: seal off the capitol city

    Finland blocks roads to Helsinki to curb coronavirus spread
    https://news.trust.org/item/20200327214859-ttfb5

    This last graph is so globalhomo:

    Due to the coronavirus outbreak, Finland will also temporarily suspend its operations in Iraq, where some 80 Finnish soldiers have participated in international counter terrorism efforts by training Kurdish peshmerga troops, the Finnish army said.
     
    Why? Because everyone else is doing it? Because "coalition of the willing"? Because no one closer than Finland can teach tactical basics to Kurds? Or because the government got some money?

    In India, Indians ordered off the streets. Indian cops enforce it with rattan canes:

    https://youtu.be/t8RbRxZL_s0

    At the very end an official who may be Sikh has a couple of younger men doing deep knee bends, perhaps they said they were on the street for the exercise. Cops in America could do this stuff 100 years ago. Not now.

    “In India, Indians ordered off the streets”

    and into the mask making “factories”:

    Perhaps best to stick with 3M masks; so your remaining relatives can recover a large settlement…LOL

  225. anon[559] • Disclaimer says:
    @Ron Unz

    What amazes me about your behavior right now is that you’re applying your correct distrust of government to the wrong people.
     
    Well, in my comment I mentioned that the daily Coronavirus death toll in New York had tripled in the last few days, and hit 140 yesterday. I thought it might reach 500-1000 per day within a week or so.

    Someone just brought to my attention that it just now hit 209 in the last 24 hours:

    https://www.dailymail.co.uk/news/article-8163365/President-Trump-quarantine-New-York-Connecticut-New-Jersey-amid-pandemic.html

    Offhand, it looks pretty exponential to me. Are you claiming those totals are just imaginary and the people in New York aren't actually dying?

    Right now they are stacked up on ventilators, so total deaths will eventually equal number of ventilated patients x .7.

    Every time they vent someone, might as well plan on .7 additional deaths. And they are running out of machines, no? There is your missing stacked cordwood, that will emerge in 10 days max in the fatal statistics.

  226. Anonymous[415] • Disclaimer says:
    @Verymuchalive
    Excellent reply. A great deal of research will no doubt be put into the study of the spread of coronavirus. For example, why it is so virulent in Spain, but not in Portugal. Scientific research, like the Universe, is amoral.

    I don’t think the Spanish and Portuguese are that genetically similar, contrary to popular belief. Spaniards are a lot more ethnically Latin/Med than the Portuguese are, which makes them more similar to Italians, which is arguably why Italy and Spain are badly affected but Portugal not so much.

    Portuguese are mostly culturally Latinised Celts/native Iberians, the Latin/Med racial type is not a particularly large component of the native Portuguese population.

  227. @Anonymous Jew
    It may all come down to a country’s ability (and willingness) to count the actual number of infected. Italy may actually have the same death rate as Germany:

    https://www.google.com/amp/s/www.wsj.com/amp/articles/is-the-coronavirus-as-deadly-as-they-say-11585088464

    As a side note, this is why it’s too early to measure racial susceptibility. You have to account for not just the numbers mentioned in the article but also demographics, co-morbidity, cultural health habits (smoking, obesity etc). I’m all about HBD and it’s obvious there are racial differences in everything, but you need good data first. Otherwise you just discredit the HBD angle.

    HBD works best with decades of data, both formal and informal, for patterns that tend to be ignored by respectable discourse for obviously political reasons (e.g., sprinters). HBD should NOT be expected to work well with wholly novel situations.

    • Replies: @epebble
    HBD should NOT be expected to work well with wholly novel situations.

    Why? Difference in disease susceptibility seems ancient. For Covid-19, the global South (of say, 18 degree parallel North) seems remarkably unaffected, at least, till now.
  228. @Kronos
    Oh jeez, and I thought this scene from “Yes, Minister” was a parody...

    https://youtu.be/x-5zEb1oS9A

    Appropos of nothing much, the last of the three regular stars just died two months ago–of pneumonia.

  229. @Parbes
    "First of all, we need to disregard any information that comes from China."

    No, first of all we need to completely disregard dumbass "U.S. patriotard" bigots like you who assign "reliability" to a government's data based on presence of their own ideological and racial animus towards that government, and on whether that government has currently been designated an "enemy" by the mendacious U.S. regime. I hope the coronavirus in the U.S. decimates all the jingoist shitheads of your ilk.

    Don't comment on the Internet, man. You're an embarrassment to your mother. The Internet was invented for smarter people than you.

    “First of all, we need to disregard any information that comes from China.”

    This all reminds me of a conundrum I had to deal with in an exam when I was 13 years old. It goes like this:

    Q. There are two tribes who live in the jungle (I know, I know) and you have been told that one tribe always tells the truth, and the other tribe always lies. You come to a fork in the jungle trail that is not on your map and you need directions to the local missionary camp. A tribesman is standing at the fork, but you have no way of knowing which tribe he belongs to and if you ask him, you will not know if he is telling the truth. How do you ask him for directions?

    A. You ask “If you were a member of the other tribe, which way would you tell me to go to the camp?’. You then go in the opposite direction to the one indicated, since both tribes will now indicate the wrong path.

    We have a similar situation here. Since both the Chinese and Donald Trump tell lies all the time, we know that whatever either says is not true. We should proceed accordingly and assume that if both agree on anything, then it is guaranteed to be untrue,but that if they both disagree, then neither is telling the truth. which is something different.

  230. @Old Palo Altan
    Ah - but the ferocity was only directed against Britain once you had declared war on them.

    Their envious eyes were looking East, and always will.

    I don’t buy this nonsense and no one smart did at the time. It would have been best if those wars were avoided but this cuddly old Uncle Adolf routine/Kaiser Wilhelm is assinine.

    • Replies: @Old Palo Altan
    Uncle Adolf was in fact very cuddly towards the British Empire; he reserved his uncuddly side for the Communists, Slavs and Jews.

    You and Art Deco would do well to read, at least, Pat Buchanan and Peter Hitchens on this issue. Then you will both get something of that education he is always going on about.
  231. @Intelligent Dasein
    Thus, just as I said in the earlier thread, it's all about sparing the healthcare system from the odious burden of doing its own job. "What? We (hypothetically) may not have enough ventilators? Quick, shut down the country!" I mean, far be it from them to do anything crass like triage respiratory care, make broader use of other supportive therapies, jury-rig some makeshift ventilators, and rush more into production.

    No, it's obvious now that this whole stupid overreaction was all about circling the wagons around the precious healthcare system and involuntarily conscripting the citizenry to fight it its battles for it, because the agencies that we spend hundreds of billions of dollars on every year were caught absolutely flat-footed when put to a very minor test of their abilities by a slightly-worse-than-the-flu coronavirus.

    Now it seems like things are not even that bad and we aren't actually running out of ventilators. Our ruling class collectively wet their pants, spent two trillion dollars, disrupted millions of lives, and plunged us into the final bread and circuses phase of our tottering imperium, all because their bloated healthcare apparatus could not handle a miniscule public health emergency and they were afraid of looking like idiots before their Boomer electorate. What a pitiful legacy to leave behind.

    ID, yours may be the best general description of this whole situation. Suddenly, Andrew Cuomo is saying, at his Thursday press conference, that a total shutdown may not have been the best strategy, as NY’s economy crashes around him. He called for a “war footing” in this battle, perhaps picturing himself as a new FDR. Maybe the plan will be to restart the economy with WPA projects.

  232. @The Wild Geese Howard
    A visual representation of pandemics throughout history:

    https://www.visualcapitalist.com/history-of-pandemics-deadliest/

    The global economy was euthanized and more of our freedoms were canceled for next to nothing.

    No, that is not what it means.

    The Coronavirus pandemic apparently spreads more easily and has possibly has a higher death rate than the Spanish Flu.

    If the Spanish Flu killed 1-3% of the world’s population at a time when the world was less interconnected than today, what could Coronavirus do? The possibility of 100-200 million + deaths is quite real if too little is done.

    In the US alone, we are looking at a possibility of millions of deaths.

    That is not “next to nothing “. There has never been an event in US history that has killed over 1 million citizens. The largest group deaths were in the 600-750 thousand range, which happened twice: the Civil War and the Spanish Flu.

    • Agree: Ron Unz
    • Replies: @Jonathan Mason

    If the Spanish Flu killed 1-3% of the world’s population at a time when the world was less interconnected than today, what could Coronavirus do?
     
    Medicine is so different today, so hard to make comparisons.

    At the time of the Spanish flu, vitamins had just been discovered, but insulin and vitamin D were not yet discovered, nor was penicillin. The computerized lab tests that form the basis of all modern medicine were unknown, and almost all vaccinations had yet to be invented.

    Tuberculosis was rife and a leading cause of death. The miracle drug Streptomycin was not invented until 1944, but in efforts to contain TB, spitting, except into spitoons, was prohibited. The BCG vaccination was not used on humans until 1921.

    Smoking was considered to be healthful, and Richard Doll's pioneering studies on the adverse heath effects of smoking still lay 30 years in the future.

    The typewriter had just been invented and became a source of female emancipation. My grandmother worked away from home as a typist following the end of WWI.
    , @The Wild Geese Howard
    So, I should log you in the 'hysterical' column on the register.

    Good to know, good to know.

    Have a great evening!
  233. “Germany was neither of these things, and bounced back …again, more carefully, but with more lasting effect from the mid 1950s”

    Until Merkel’s Million Muslim Males Madness, I’d agree. Ten years back an outsider looking at Britain, France, Germany and Japan would have been amazed to be told who were the victorious nations and who the losing ones.

  234. @obwandiyag
    Not many people died in the Blitz. Of either variety. In Hamburg everybody died. Of either variety.

    “Not many people died in the Blitz. Of either variety. In Hamburg everybody died. Of either variety.”

    Thanks, but that is written with 20/20 hindsight, and so it does not alter my argument. A fair number of buildings were indeed flattened during the Blitz, and I’m going out on a limb and saying that those dumb enough to ignore the sirens and stay inside those buildings had lower odds of survival in general. Not always, of course — sometimes the roof of the bomb shelter caves in whereas the bomb missed the building all those people had just fled, but we’re talking about general cases.

    In Dresden, at least Vonnegut made it out alive. He was in a meat locker three stories underground. Maybe not a bomb shelter per se, but close enough to make my point.

  235. @Anon
    I was a child and a parent before well before 1995. There were no chickenpox parties. When my kids were young there were measles and mumps vaccines but not for chickenpox. When I and my sibs were young there were no measles mumps, measles or chickenpox vaccines.

    I and every boomer parent can tell you there were no chicken pox parties before 1995.

    Chickenpox parties were created around 2010 by hysterical liberal anti vaccine idiot women following the latest liberal fad of anti vaccine nonsense. Kathy Griffin Cher Patricia Arquette types.

    Plus women who want to blame every bit of misbehavior, bad manners, messiness, less than A grades, whatever imperfections their children have on some mysterious curse. Nowadays it’s vaccines. When we were young parents it was sugar that caused every problem. Ha ha

    Umm…I was born in the 70’s and grew up in the heart of hippy-dippy North/canal Seattle. My memories are vague, but I’m pretty sure I was sent to a chickenpox party as a child. When the first case emerged in our school (an alternative school by the University of Washington), I clearly remember my boomer mother stressing that it was better to get the chickenpox now than as an adult. That was right before I contracted chickenpox. But at least my mother blamed me for my misbehavior.

    Regarding Coronavirus, I’m getting antsy. I may as well get it now while I’m working from home , our daycare is closed, and the weather still sucks.

    Ron Unz stresses that, unlike global warming, we will soon know very soon how this will all play out. I suspect that, in retrospect, closing down everything won’t be seen as worth the cost. Japan will be seen as the model. They just all wore masks, took off their shoes(!) kept to mostly business as usual, and have the flattest curve in the industrialized north. They even have more hospital beds per capita, just in case.

  236. @keypusher
    GoJo’s original product, still produced and well known to auto mechanics and people who work on cars, was an orange scented petroleum based waterless hand cleaner. This product is not anti-bacterial but it’s really good for getting grease off your hands. As a result of the 1973 oil shock, GoJo’s raw material cost soared and they went looking for other feedstocks and came up with the idea of an alcohol based product.

    Well, it's still a heartwarming story, it's just that a mom-and-pop business doesn't quite rustle the jimmies of today, unfortunately.

    I remember seeing a lot of Go-Jo (I think that's how they used to spell it) in garages in South Carolina in the 80s, glad the company still around.

    It is a heartwarming story – the are still around and still privately held by the original family but have grown to 2,500 employees (and the factories are still in the US).

    Goldie worked as a supervisor in the rubber factories of Akron, OH during WWII and noticed the factory workers dipping their hands in kerosene at the end of their shifts to get the carbon black off but this is very hard on your skin. She discussed this with her husband and he recruited the painfully white and WASPY Professor Clarence Cook at Kent State U. to come up with a better product. Maybe at one time this kind of Jewish entrepreneurship/WASP technical skill collaboration was OK but by 2020 standards its not OK so we need Lupe to come to our rescue. If she doesn’t exist we need to invent her.

  237. @jim jones
    Any female doctor in the NHS will be suffering from Boris Derangement Syndrome and will post hysterical attacks saying that whatever he did was wrong

    The female NHS doctors I know are now actually quite sympathetic towards him and warm in feeling. This was not really the case before though to be fair.

  238. @Jonathan Mason

    We can give him morphine so that he will be comfortable in his final hours or we can torture him for another week or 10 days and chances are 98% that the result will not change – we leave it up to you.
     
    More complicated than that. Morphine is a respiratory depressant, so it would quickly finish him off. Euthanasia, anyone? Then there are various laws that probably vary from state to state about who can given consent to withhold treatment, or to bump somebody off. Some of this depends on whether the person about to die has an extant living will document.

    Then there are jealousies between surviving family members over who benefits from the estate of the deceased, and who loses out, for example has to vacate a home they shared with the deceased, or used to drive the car of the deceased. It is a real minefield.

    Morphine is a respiratory depressant, so it would quickly finish him off.

    Yes, precisely. What is the point of prolonging suffering when there is no chance of recovery? As long as you don’t call it euthanasia, it isn’t. It’s just making the patient comfortable in his final hours. Should we withhold all morphine so the man can gasp for air a few more hours? Is this what our deity or our state demands from us?

    I understand that there can be lots of FINANCIAL motives for keeping Grandpa around past the point where he is getting any benefit from this life (not just the family but the hospital and the doctors too), maybe even some RELIGIOUS ones, but ETHICAL ones are sorely lacking.

  239. @Neil Templeton

    Be honest enough to admit that you’re sweating bullets too, hypocrite — it’s just over a matter that YOU regard as being most important.
     
    Not sure what you're talking about here, I'm not sweating over my 401k or the economic downturn. My point was that a society that has the resiliancy to function at a reasonable level even in the midst of chaos, or at least to quickly rebound from such, may, in the long run, outperform a society that goes on lockdown habitually. Otherwise, thanks for your response.

    “Not sure what you’re talking about here, I’m not sweating over my 401k or the economic downturn.”

    Fair enough, I’ll take you at your word, and retract what I said to you and redirect it to those who DO accuse everyone around them about panicking over the virus even though their own panic — be it about angering the gods of the Dow, or the imminent death of the 2nd amendment, or the impending state control and neverending martial law — is palpable and contains just as much or more hysteria.

    I don’t think Steve Sailer — to take one example — is panicking. He’s saying, let’s get all the info we can on this, and then make a rational choice based on that info. That’s what Pence is saying, that’s what Birx is saying. Any hesitancy to lower the drawbridge absent some tighter error bands around the prevalence and R_0 and other parameters associated with this virus (with and without aggressive measures) is due to a rational awareness of risks and uncertainties at the tail distribution, something that should be evident even to people like myself who agree that the most likely final verdict continues to be “really, it wasn’t that big a deal in comparison with all the other deaths from regular flu”.

    • Replies: @Neil Templeton
    I'm 58, smoker, drinker, long past my lean and limber days. But it's not about me, or even my 90 year old mother. It's about our society and the future. Most of us will get it, if the models are correct, and many will die. The question is: how do we behave in the interim, selfishly, or not?
  240. @Steve Sailer
    HBD works best with decades of data, both formal and informal, for patterns that tend to be ignored by respectable discourse for obviously political reasons (e.g., sprinters). HBD should NOT be expected to work well with wholly novel situations.

    HBD should NOT be expected to work well with wholly novel situations.

    Why? Difference in disease susceptibility seems ancient. For Covid-19, the global South (of say, 18 degree parallel North) seems remarkably unaffected, at least, till now.

    • Replies: @Steve Sailer
    Difference in disease susceptibility seems ancient.

    For ancient diseases that in 1492 were confined to some parts of the world and nonexistent in other parts.

    For a novel disease for which there has been no natural selection yet among anybody, all we could expect are random differences across racial groups that can't be predicted a priori

  241. @Buzz Mohawk
    That's a good point, well taken.

    I must say, I've been a party to three living wills, all "do not resuscitate." For two, my mother and my sister, I had to give the order not to do it. My father, the third, dropped dead in his driveway (the best way to go) so I didn't have to do anything.

    BTW I notice a black eye and some bruises. Ron beat the crap out of you. You'll get back in the ring, no doubt.

    Buzz, Two years ago my now 102 year old mother experienced intestinal discomfort and threw up some bile. She saw her doctor who said her gall bladder was the culprit but no surgery would be planned. A more severe attack resulted in me taking her to ER. I dropped her in the lobby, parked my car and returned to join her. In the meantime they had moved her to an ER cubby, wired her up and a young doctor told me mom had had a “Heart Attack.” Well, mom has a no resuscitate clause and refused even an offer of Tylenol. She lay on her back eyes closed , arms folded across her chest in a mummy like pose. Four hours later, needing the bed, they helped mom redress and I took her back to her assisted living facility. Dead in the driveway would not have been a bad thing.

  242. @Lot
    Will he stop when his prediction of “500-1000 a day” just in NY next week, then “health system collapse” and 4x that number, never actually happens?

    Nahhhh.

    https://cdn.kapwing.com/final_5e7d91a4d7790d0016b6c808_508228.jpg

    For the record, here’s the prediction for April 4:

    “ I think we’ll probably see 500-1000 daily NY deaths within a week or so. Not long afterward, the local health system will collapse, and deaths will then probably quadruple.”

    I take this to mean, at minimum, 3 days at 500+, and then at least 1 day of 2000+.

    Here’s another Ron Unz specific prediction:

    “ Personally, I think we’ll be lucky to avoid over a million deaths by early summer. Maybe the figure will be much higher.”

    Will he stop when his prediction of “500-1000 a day” just in NY next week, then “health system collapse” and 4x that number, never actually happens?

    Nahhhh.

    Well, you’re some fanatic pro-Israel type who’s a big Trump fan, aren’t you?

    Remember how a few days ago Trump was talking about maybe telling everyone to go back to work after Easter?

    At the time, I predicted he’d probably change his mind because of the exponentially-growing deaths in New York:

    https://www.unz.com/akarlin/dulce-et-decorum-est-pro-gdp-mori/#comment-3793489

    Well, the deaths have continued to grow exponentially just like I expected, and now Trump is talking about maybe imposing a strict quarantine around Greater New York, including parts of NJ and CT:

    https://www.cnn.com/2020/03/28/politics/trump-new-york-new-jersey-quarantine-coronavirus/index.html

    Perhaps I’m just forgetful, but I don’t remember the federal government quarantining NYC in previous flu seasons…

    • Replies: @Paleo Liberal
    At this point the death rate in NY is doubling every 2 days. Obviously that can’t go on forever, just as every pyramid scheme has to end sometime.

    If things don’t slow down, we are looking at 500 deaths per day by early next week and 1000 by midweek, and 10k deaths per day by the end of the following week.

    Hopefully things will slow down, and soon.

    Even if they do slow down, and soon, we are still looking at 500-1000 by the end of next week. That is a best case scenario.

    I often disagree with Ron. But this time people are scoffing at his “alarmist” predictions which are really best case scenarios.

    I have elderly in-laws in Manhattan, who have been wonderful to me, my wife and my kids. I can’t even begin to tell you how much I hope Ron is overestimating the death toll. But I fear he is underestimating the death toll.
    , @Che Blutarsky
    When did we become a dictatorship where the President can just order people to go to work against their will?

    We never did.

    The shutdown is very unpopular in the real world, one of the only things that will keep people on board is if Trump, after signalling that he wants it to end as soon as possible, says that he is convinced by the evidence and the numbers to keep it going. That would be much more effective than coming out and saying that this is going to last three months - unemployment would skyrocket, markets would crash, another $5 trillion bailout would be required.

    FFS, it's not that hard to figure that out.
    , @Lot
    “ Well, the deaths have continued to grow exponentially just like I expected”

    A “prediction” that everyone would have made.

    The question is when such growth stops. You’re prediction is 2000-4000 a day in NY in about two weeks, right?

    I don’t think the evidence supports this at all. Italy seems to be maxing out around 900 and is the worst in the world.
  243. @epebble
    HBD should NOT be expected to work well with wholly novel situations.

    Why? Difference in disease susceptibility seems ancient. For Covid-19, the global South (of say, 18 degree parallel North) seems remarkably unaffected, at least, till now.

    Difference in disease susceptibility seems ancient.

    For ancient diseases that in 1492 were confined to some parts of the world and nonexistent in other parts.

    For a novel disease for which there has been no natural selection yet among anybody, all we could expect are random differences across racial groups that can’t be predicted a priori

    • Replies: @Sean


    New York's Orthodox Jewish community is battling measles ...www.vox.com › science-and-health › 2018/11 › measles-new-york-or...
    10 Apr 2019 - Anti-vaccine advocates have swayed parents in New York to refuse immunizations for their kids, sparking two of the largest measles outbreaks ...
     


    New York Chasidim under fire for not cancelling large events ...
    Jewish Chronicle-18 Mar 2020
    David Greenfield, the CEO of the Metropolitan Council on Jewish Poverty, told Jewish Insider that he had been warning of the risks of coronavirus ...
     

    https://www.dailymail.co.uk/news/article-8159589/Jewish-leaders-urge-community-preserve-life-amid-coronavirus.html

    Why are ten times as many Jews Covid-19 victims? Community leaders urge followers to 'preserve life' as figures reveal one in 20 Britons killed by coronavirus are from the religion
     
    ----

    https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/2015_Middle_East_respiratory_syndrome_outbreak_in_South_Korea

    An outbreak of Middle East respiratory syndrome coronavirus occurred in South Korea from May 2015 to July 2015.[4] The virus, which causes Middle East respiratory syndrome (MERS), was a newly emerged betacoronavirus that was first identified in a patient from Saudi Arabia in April 2012. From the outbreak, a total of 186 cases have been infected, with a death toll of 36
     
    Was it a bad thing? It concentrated their minds. Similarly, the current world wide pandemic may turn out to have been a necessary stimulant, if there is a more deadly second wave, in October say.
    , @Lot
    People in cold climates probably have been selected for resistance to respiratory infections.
    , @epebble
    Even without natural selection, just plain diversity may give advantage to some groups over others.

    For example, shorter people may fall less frequently (and be less seriously injured, say in the head) compared to taller people just because their center of gravity is lower. This is true but not because shorter people have been naturally selected to better resist gravity.

    On the contrary, taller people may do better in basketball, though they have not been naturally selected (at least in the Darwinian sense)!
  244. @Jack D
    This sounds very encouraging to me in some ways. First of all, he is saying that basically everyone that comes into his ER now, even for unrelated things, already has it, so the # of actual cases must be MUCH higher than the # of reported cases - there are tons of people out there who have it and don't even know it and will recover or have already recovered without ever being tested or diagnosed.

    2nd he is saying that 80% have mild symptoms. Critically, this is of people who have already presented at the ER. Generally people with mild symptoms are instructed NOT to present at the ER unless they are in distress and most follow that. So of the people who felt sick enough to seek medical attention, 80% were mild anyway. What % of the Covid infected NEVER present at the ER? I am guessing very high - maybe 80%. So those requiring hospitalization are really 20% of 20% or 4% of the infected (and 1% will die).

    He reports that 70 to 86% of ventilated covid patients will die anyway. This makes it seem like the crazy rush for ventilators is a largely a waste. Probably there is (or could be) some diagnostic predictor as to which of the ventilated have a good chance of making it and which ones don't have a snowballs chance in hell. I'm sure it's not random even if we don't know it yet (will figure it out soon). For the latter group, it should be "don't even bother". This would reduce the demand for ventilators by 3/4 immediately. Of course, this goes against the way that doctors have been trained (and they way hospitals make money) but it really wouldn't be that hard to say, "We are sorry but this is a terrible disease and there's nothing more that can be realistically done for Grandpa. We could put him on a ventilator but our experience has shown that this is only going to prolong his suffering. Only 2% of those who fit his profile survive. We can give him morphine so that he will be comfortable in his final hours or we can torture him for another week or 10 days and chances are 98% that the result will not change - we leave it up to you. And by the way, we desperately need that ventilator for some young person who we think will survive. " Most people would accept it.

    Gee, this all sounds very familiar.

    • Replies: @Old Palo Altan
    Yes, exactly in accord with your first informative post on the Pareto distribution to explain the way this sort of thing works.

    Would you not agree that the real story here is theological?

    Those of us who believe in Eternity are only mildly bothered by the possibility of another six months (or days) rather than years in this Vale of Tears, while the non-believers are scared stiff.

    So scared indeed that they are willing to turn the world into an ashcan just so long as they can continue to inhabit it.

    Oh, and I was (sadly) right about Bezoz being the one man who would continue to fly high in the midst of this. I read some days ago that, while the internet and computer biggies have lost billions, he has added some 4 or 5 of the same to his pile of numbers.

  245. @obwandiyag
    Not many people died in the Blitz. Of either variety. In Hamburg everybody died. Of either variety.

    I don’t suppose that the Germans who bombed towns in the Spanish Civil War thought “What will happen if some other country proves to be better at this than we are?”

    • Replies: @but an humble craftsman
    I don't suppose that the likes of you will ever admit that "appeasement" is just an idiomatic expression for "please wait a minute, the heavy bombers are not production ready quite now".
    , @obwandiyag
    Red herring. Off-topic. I repeat. Not many people died in the Blitz. The way they talk about it, you'd think it was the crime of the century.
  246. @Ron Unz

    Will he stop when his prediction of “500-1000 a day” just in NY next week, then “health system collapse” and 4x that number, never actually happens?

    Nahhhh.
     
    Well, you're some fanatic pro-Israel type who's a big Trump fan, aren't you?

    Remember how a few days ago Trump was talking about maybe telling everyone to go back to work after Easter?

    At the time, I predicted he'd probably change his mind because of the exponentially-growing deaths in New York:

    https://www.unz.com/akarlin/dulce-et-decorum-est-pro-gdp-mori/#comment-3793489

    Well, the deaths have continued to grow exponentially just like I expected, and now Trump is talking about maybe imposing a strict quarantine around Greater New York, including parts of NJ and CT:

    https://www.cnn.com/2020/03/28/politics/trump-new-york-new-jersey-quarantine-coronavirus/index.html

    Perhaps I'm just forgetful, but I don't remember the federal government quarantining NYC in previous flu seasons...

    At this point the death rate in NY is doubling every 2 days. Obviously that can’t go on forever, just as every pyramid scheme has to end sometime.

    If things don’t slow down, we are looking at 500 deaths per day by early next week and 1000 by midweek, and 10k deaths per day by the end of the following week.

    Hopefully things will slow down, and soon.

    Even if they do slow down, and soon, we are still looking at 500-1000 by the end of next week. That is a best case scenario.

    I often disagree with Ron. But this time people are scoffing at his “alarmist” predictions which are really best case scenarios.

    I have elderly in-laws in Manhattan, who have been wonderful to me, my wife and my kids. I can’t even begin to tell you how much I hope Ron is overestimating the death toll. But I fear he is underestimating the death toll.

    • Thanks: Ron Unz
  247. @Daniel Williams
    That is a good point. Coastal America could be brain-draining the flyover states just like immigration restrictionists say that U.S. immigration policy is brain-draining the third world by offering preferential status to highly educated applicants.

    That’s a fascinating thought: a guy who would have made a great doctor in his hometown in West Virginia or Nebraska instead becomes a Master of the Universe in NYC or Connecticut.

    I wonder how often that actually happens? From what I read here, it seems like a lot of those guys are overlooked by the elite college admissions machine. But still...

    Washington DC is filled with people like this.

    Hollywood for ugly people, they call it.

  248. @UK
    I don't buy this nonsense and no one smart did at the time. It would have been best if those wars were avoided but this cuddly old Uncle Adolf routine/Kaiser Wilhelm is assinine.

    Uncle Adolf was in fact very cuddly towards the British Empire; he reserved his uncuddly side for the Communists, Slavs and Jews.

    You and Art Deco would do well to read, at least, Pat Buchanan and Peter Hitchens on this issue. Then you will both get something of that education he is always going on about.

    • Replies: @UK
    Adolf was a lunatic fanatic who got told clearly not to invade a country. He did, and him and the poor people he led into disaster suffered the consequences. European civilisation never recovered and probably will never recover. He is the worst European in history. He had some fair gripes but he didn't need to be a prick about it. India achieved a lot more by being a lot more reasonable.

    But then everything about him was fanatical and people like that should be kept in the theatre or the looney bin.
  249. @Steve Sailer
    Difference in disease susceptibility seems ancient.

    For ancient diseases that in 1492 were confined to some parts of the world and nonexistent in other parts.

    For a novel disease for which there has been no natural selection yet among anybody, all we could expect are random differences across racial groups that can't be predicted a priori

    New York’s Orthodox Jewish community is battling measles …www.vox.com › science-and-health › 2018/11 › measles-new-york-or…
    10 Apr 2019 – Anti-vaccine advocates have swayed parents in New York to refuse immunizations for their kids, sparking two of the largest measles outbreaks …

    New York Chasidim under fire for not cancelling large events …
    Jewish Chronicle-18 Mar 2020
    David Greenfield, the CEO of the Metropolitan Council on Jewish Poverty, told Jewish Insider that he had been warning of the risks of coronavirus …

    https://www.dailymail.co.uk/news/article-8159589/Jewish-leaders-urge-community-preserve-life-amid-coronavirus.html

    Why are ten times as many Jews Covid-19 victims? Community leaders urge followers to ‘preserve life’ as figures reveal one in 20 Britons killed by coronavirus are from the religion

    —-

    https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/2015_Middle_East_respiratory_syndrome_outbreak_in_South_Korea

    An outbreak of Middle East respiratory syndrome coronavirus occurred in South Korea from May 2015 to July 2015.[4] The virus, which causes Middle East respiratory syndrome (MERS), was a newly emerged betacoronavirus that was first identified in a patient from Saudi Arabia in April 2012. From the outbreak, a total of 186 cases have been infected, with a death toll of 36

    Was it a bad thing? It concentrated their minds. Similarly, the current world wide pandemic may turn out to have been a necessary stimulant, if there is a more deadly second wave, in October say.

  250. @Anonymous
    Apparently 80,000 people died from Hong Kong flu in Britain, yet it appears there was no lock down and was quickly forgotten thereafter.

    Indeed! I’d never even heard of it until the other day when it was discussed here at iSteve.

  251. @Mr. Anon
    Why has the British Government reclassified COVID-19 to no longer be a "High Consequence Infectious Disease"?

    https://www.gov.uk/guidance/high-consequence-infectious-diseases-hcid#status-of-covid-19

    As of 19 March 2020, COVID-19 is no longer considered to be a high consequence infectious diseases (HCID) in the UK.
     
    As far as I can tell from their website, they have not revised this assessment. But they are certainly treating it as high consequence.

    Because, perhaps, it’s not as awful as these ones? But then you knew that already, didn’t you? Are you trying to mislead readers?

    Argentine haemorrhagic fever (Junin virus) Andes virus infection (hantavirus)
    Bolivian haemorrhagic fever (Machupo virus) Avian influenza A H7N9 and H5N1
    Crimean Congo haemorrhagic fever (CCHF) Avian influenza A H5N6 and H7N7
    Ebola virus disease (EVD) Middle East respiratory syndrome (MERS)
    Lassa fever Monkeypox
    Lujo virus disease Nipah virus infection
    Marburg virus disease (MVD) Pneumonic plague (Yersinia pestis)
    Severe fever with thrombocytopaenia Severe acute respiratory syndrome (SARS)*
    syndrome (SFTS)

  252. @obwandiyag
    Wrong and wrong. And just sort of confused and intractable. The virus is real and very nasty. If you don't know of someone within 2 degrees of separation from you dying of it, don't worry, you will. I do. This is not being done to save "our precious healthcare system." What does that even mean?

    If you mean they're trying to save Obamacare instead of getting socialized medicine like civilized people have, then I'm with you. They're always trying to do that.

    But I suspect that's not what you mean. Surely you don't mean they caused the virus in order to save Obamacare. Or that saving Obamacare is the primary reason for the current lockdowns. Really?

    "Looking like idiots in front of their Boomer electorate"? What does that mean. All I can get out of it is that you hate old people, just like "the youth" of 1968 did.

    So go out and mingle, then. You're a child. So you're safe. No people your age dying. Except for the ones who are.

    Incidentally. Hating old people is identity politics, one of the best kinds. Now there is a PTB plot for ya. And you're doing their bidding in spades. Heating up the inter-demographic hatred. Good work. They'd give you a medal if it wouldn't give the game away.

    Hating old people is identity politics, one of the best kinds.

    And also a clear violation of “Honor your mother and father”, so Biblical grade sin.

    Unironically, as the kids say these days.

    • Replies: @HA
    "And also a clear violation of “Honor your mother and father”, so Biblical grade sin."

    It's also -- in the case of JeSuisOmarMateen, who claims that his rage against boomers is motivated primarily by a desire to keep Biden from returning to the White House -- foolishly counterproductive.

    That is to say, it's basically a replay of the way Democrats treated white people in the last election: constantly haranguing them about how they messed things up for everyone else, gleefully looking forward to the day when they are no longer running things, and doing everything they to move that day up -- and then, despite all that, expecting them to vote Hillary into the White House.

    How did that work out for them? And why does anyone think that kind of strategy will work any better this time around?

  253. @Ed
    Differential in cases is increasingly a function of different testing levels in countries. Here in the USA testing is ramping up while doctors are telling people don’t come to the hospital unless your symptoms become more severe.

    Hospitalization and deaths seems like a better comparison point and here the USA compares favorably to much of the world.

    Thanks, makes sense. Have been tracking deaths, will try to pay more attention to hospitalizations. Is there a good source for that? Worldometer isn’t, unless I am missing something.

    • Replies: @Ed
    It varies by jurisdiction but Cuomo will usually point the hospitalization numbers break out those in the ICU on vents. It’s pretty bad in New York.


    https://www.propublica.org/article/coronavirus-hospitalization-numbers-are-spotty-journalists-help-us-fill-in-the-gaps

    https://covidtracking.com/data/
  254. @BB753
    Indeed, you can't develop herd immunity if you have a lockdown, assuming it would work against covid-19, which was a leap of faith to begin with.
    As I predicted, the Brits really had no plan but went ahead and called it herd immunity. It sounded like the suicidal bug-chasing of Aids by promiscuous gays.
    How's Boris coping with the disease, BTW?
    What a freaking genius!

    Well. Thousands of pages of evidence plan are here.

    https://www.gov.uk/guidance/pandemic-flu

    • Replies: @BB753
    A bad plan is worthless, perhaps worse than having no plan, because it leads you in the wrong direction from the start until it's too late to change course. Influenza and covid-19 aren't quite alike.
  255. @Intelligent Dasein
    Gee, this all sounds very familiar.

    Yes, exactly in accord with your first informative post on the Pareto distribution to explain the way this sort of thing works.

    Would you not agree that the real story here is theological?

    Those of us who believe in Eternity are only mildly bothered by the possibility of another six months (or days) rather than years in this Vale of Tears, while the non-believers are scared stiff.

    So scared indeed that they are willing to turn the world into an ashcan just so long as they can continue to inhabit it.

    Oh, and I was (sadly) right about Bezoz being the one man who would continue to fly high in the midst of this. I read some days ago that, while the internet and computer biggies have lost billions, he has added some 4 or 5 of the same to his pile of numbers.

    • Replies: @anonguy
    Now think about this.

    With most everyone off the road, it is a good time for drone cars/trucks, the risk factor is way low compared to normal and maybe could be marked with rotating yellow lights, etc.

    Get that rolling with Amazon, the Lyft, Uber guys. Forbid nothing but official traffic and drones on interstates. That is low bar for automated systems.

    Some Japanese robots for loading unloading.

    This stuff suddenly gets a lot more economical. And it also satisfies some non economical needs (yes, these do exist) like people not wanting to die.

    For ones meta model of how society is disrupted, esp. for those who put money first as an explanation of all, think of this like a global tax on every single person to person contact.

    If it is fully indemnified, which is certainly beginning with demands for hazard pay from the grunts.

    FWIW, on the populist revolt topic, wsws.org is a good aggregator for reporting on events such as this around the globe. Whether one agrees with them or not in their analysis, they are IME quite good with raw facts/data, being the old school scientific marxists that they are.

    , @Intelligent Dasein
    Indeed, my friend.

    When you can not the infirmities of advancing age or sudden illness not with terror but as a sign that you are striding ever quicker towards the far green country and the quickening sunrise, then and only then do you acquire the supernatural prudence the leads you to make correct decisions under grim circumstances. Those who have loved this world least have served it best.

    It is a shame about Bezos. He also seems to have benefitted from a fortuitously timely bit of insider selling just before the market tanked. I'll take comfort from the belief that his comeuppance will not be brought about by something so mundane as a virus. He will fall into the pit he himself dug.

    Hope you are well.
  256. @Buzz Mohawk
    First of all, we need to disregard any "information" that comes from China. It may be true, or it may be false. We don't know, therefore it is useless.

    Second, ventilators (and associated breathing equipment -- anything that helps people get oxygen) do save people. Furthermore, it is very likely less horrible to die if you at least have enough air in your lungs than not. Do you want yourself to die without being able to be hooked to one because there aren't enough? No, I don't think so, so STFU!

    I am 68, T2D with an untreatable clot on my left ventricle so I am in the firing line. On my side I am overwieght not obese, never smoked, blood pressure today 134/72 and I can deliver a sustianed pulse of 150 on a running machine for about 3 minutes, indefinitely at 130. My 80% pulse should be around 120. If I am ill enough for a ventilator it’s over anyway. Let me die at home.

    I have been asked to source ventilators on behalf of the Zambian government. I think that amounts to a huge waste of resources compared to what else they need to do. I am still thinking it over. It is not clear they have community transmission yet. It is clear that they have huge numbers of people with HIV infections. Some are being treated for AIDS with antivirals. They will probably not be infected. Those who so far only have HIV will be swept away. Would you want to be responsible for diverting treatment away from them? The elite should probably take AIDS antivirals as prophylactics since they are around. Better use of resources all round. They probably can’t come up with the cash anyway.

  257. @Old Palo Altan
    Yes, exactly in accord with your first informative post on the Pareto distribution to explain the way this sort of thing works.

    Would you not agree that the real story here is theological?

    Those of us who believe in Eternity are only mildly bothered by the possibility of another six months (or days) rather than years in this Vale of Tears, while the non-believers are scared stiff.

    So scared indeed that they are willing to turn the world into an ashcan just so long as they can continue to inhabit it.

    Oh, and I was (sadly) right about Bezoz being the one man who would continue to fly high in the midst of this. I read some days ago that, while the internet and computer biggies have lost billions, he has added some 4 or 5 of the same to his pile of numbers.

    Now think about this.

    With most everyone off the road, it is a good time for drone cars/trucks, the risk factor is way low compared to normal and maybe could be marked with rotating yellow lights, etc.

    Get that rolling with Amazon, the Lyft, Uber guys. Forbid nothing but official traffic and drones on interstates. That is low bar for automated systems.

    Some Japanese robots for loading unloading.

    This stuff suddenly gets a lot more economical. And it also satisfies some non economical needs (yes, these do exist) like people not wanting to die.

    For ones meta model of how society is disrupted, esp. for those who put money first as an explanation of all, think of this like a global tax on every single person to person contact.

    If it is fully indemnified, which is certainly beginning with demands for hazard pay from the grunts.

    FWIW, on the populist revolt topic, wsws.org is a good aggregator for reporting on events such as this around the globe. Whether one agrees with them or not in their analysis, they are IME quite good with raw facts/data, being the old school scientific marxists that they are.

  258. @Paleo Liberal
    No, that is not what it means.

    The Coronavirus pandemic apparently spreads more easily and has possibly has a higher death rate than the Spanish Flu.

    If the Spanish Flu killed 1-3% of the world’s population at a time when the world was less interconnected than today, what could Coronavirus do? The possibility of 100-200 million + deaths is quite real if too little is done.

    In the US alone, we are looking at a possibility of millions of deaths.

    That is not “next to nothing “. There has never been an event in US history that has killed over 1 million citizens. The largest group deaths were in the 600-750 thousand range, which happened twice: the Civil War and the Spanish Flu.

    If the Spanish Flu killed 1-3% of the world’s population at a time when the world was less interconnected than today, what could Coronavirus do?

    Medicine is so different today, so hard to make comparisons.

    At the time of the Spanish flu, vitamins had just been discovered, but insulin and vitamin D were not yet discovered, nor was penicillin. The computerized lab tests that form the basis of all modern medicine were unknown, and almost all vaccinations had yet to be invented.

    Tuberculosis was rife and a leading cause of death. The miracle drug Streptomycin was not invented until 1944, but in efforts to contain TB, spitting, except into spitoons, was prohibited. The BCG vaccination was not used on humans until 1921.

    Smoking was considered to be healthful, and Richard Doll’s pioneering studies on the adverse heath effects of smoking still lay 30 years in the future.

    The typewriter had just been invented and became a source of female emancipation. My grandmother worked away from home as a typist following the end of WWI.

    • Replies: @Neil Templeton
    I disagree, if I understand you to claim that smoking was considered healthful in 1918. Smoking has been considered pernicious since the 17th Century or before.
  259. @LondonBob
    Imperial drop their number again, this time to 5,700.

    https://www.thetimes.co.uk/article/coronavirus-lockdown-is-on-course-to-reduce-total-death-rate-3gn7hfjzk

    Of course this is solely due to government actions, despite most being likely to be implemented anyway, rather than them having got their sums wrong.

    Their mathematical modelling support is from a group at the University of East Anglia. They are literally the same team as climatologists.

  260. @HA
    "Not sure what you’re talking about here, I’m not sweating over my 401k or the economic downturn."

    Fair enough, I'll take you at your word, and retract what I said to you and redirect it to those who DO accuse everyone around them about panicking over the virus even though their own panic -- be it about angering the gods of the Dow, or the imminent death of the 2nd amendment, or the impending state control and neverending martial law -- is palpable and contains just as much or more hysteria.

    I don't think Steve Sailer -- to take one example -- is panicking. He's saying, let's get all the info we can on this, and then make a rational choice based on that info. That's what Pence is saying, that's what Birx is saying. Any hesitancy to lower the drawbridge absent some tighter error bands around the prevalence and R_0 and other parameters associated with this virus (with and without aggressive measures) is due to a rational awareness of risks and uncertainties at the tail distribution, something that should be evident even to people like myself who agree that the most likely final verdict continues to be "really, it wasn't that big a deal in comparison with all the other deaths from regular flu".

    I’m 58, smoker, drinker, long past my lean and limber days. But it’s not about me, or even my 90 year old mother. It’s about our society and the future. Most of us will get it, if the models are correct, and many will die. The question is: how do we behave in the interim, selfishly, or not?

  261. @Jonathan Mason

    If the Spanish Flu killed 1-3% of the world’s population at a time when the world was less interconnected than today, what could Coronavirus do?
     
    Medicine is so different today, so hard to make comparisons.

    At the time of the Spanish flu, vitamins had just been discovered, but insulin and vitamin D were not yet discovered, nor was penicillin. The computerized lab tests that form the basis of all modern medicine were unknown, and almost all vaccinations had yet to be invented.

    Tuberculosis was rife and a leading cause of death. The miracle drug Streptomycin was not invented until 1944, but in efforts to contain TB, spitting, except into spitoons, was prohibited. The BCG vaccination was not used on humans until 1921.

    Smoking was considered to be healthful, and Richard Doll's pioneering studies on the adverse heath effects of smoking still lay 30 years in the future.

    The typewriter had just been invented and became a source of female emancipation. My grandmother worked away from home as a typist following the end of WWI.

    I disagree, if I understand you to claim that smoking was considered healthful in 1918. Smoking has been considered pernicious since the 17th Century or before.

    • Replies: @Jonathan Mason
    https://www.adweek.com/wp-content/uploads/files/camels-fresh-01-2015.jpg
  262. @Ron Unz

    Dr. John Ioannidis of Stanford, a legitimate expert in the field, is now predicting a total death rate as .01% to 0.1% of those who are exposed to the virus....See John Ioannidis’ recent article in the Wall Street Journal (excerpts here).
     
    Someone else just asked me about that ridiculous WSJ op-ed, and here's part of my comment:

    I read it a couple of days ago, and it was very obviously dishonest propaganda. Two or three of the tricks they were playing with the data jumped right out at me, and I’m absolutely no expert.

    For decades, the WSJ Op-Ed page has often specialized in dishonest propaganda, which may frequently deceive many of the people who read it. The problem in this particular case is that the Coronavirus is *not* deceived, and its opinion counts for much more than that of the readers.

    I noticed yesterday that Coronavirus deaths in New York had reached 140 per day, nearly triple what it had been just three or four days earlier. At that rate, it may reach 500-1000 per day within another week or so. The local health care system will then collapse and deaths will more than quadruple.

    Personally, I think we’ll be lucky to avoid over a million deaths by early summer. Maybe the figure will be much higher.
     
    https://www.unz.com/runz/correctly-estimating-coronavirus-infections/#comment-3801379

    On target.

  263. @PiltdownMan
    Somewhat OT:

    https://www.venteclife.com/assets/images/VOCSN-Explode---Engineered-Tough-Labels-01_1500.jpg

    Made by these nice folks, in Kokomo, IN.

    https://fs29.formsite.com/M6gPle/images/ventec_team.jpg

    https://www.venteclife.com/assets/images/accentimages/accent_gm_ventec_jobs2.jpg

    $16.67/hour if you want to apply to join them and GM in making the ventilators.

    https://gm.selectrakonline.com/Apply/Portal/Index/21?positionReqId=653&positionId=583&facilityId=277

    Diversity at its best! As long as you have enough “others” you too can change the world ™.

    What can we say? The Democrats and low-wage Republicans have not hollowed out the USA enough to crash innovation. But not for lack of trying!

    You Democrats must up your game! Your American sh1th0le project can still succeed! Equality is justice, honesty, kindness, longsuffering, forbearance, and virtue, all wrapped up into one! Equality uber alles!

  264. @Ron Unz

    Will he stop when his prediction of “500-1000 a day” just in NY next week, then “health system collapse” and 4x that number, never actually happens?

    Nahhhh.
     
    Well, you're some fanatic pro-Israel type who's a big Trump fan, aren't you?

    Remember how a few days ago Trump was talking about maybe telling everyone to go back to work after Easter?

    At the time, I predicted he'd probably change his mind because of the exponentially-growing deaths in New York:

    https://www.unz.com/akarlin/dulce-et-decorum-est-pro-gdp-mori/#comment-3793489

    Well, the deaths have continued to grow exponentially just like I expected, and now Trump is talking about maybe imposing a strict quarantine around Greater New York, including parts of NJ and CT:

    https://www.cnn.com/2020/03/28/politics/trump-new-york-new-jersey-quarantine-coronavirus/index.html

    Perhaps I'm just forgetful, but I don't remember the federal government quarantining NYC in previous flu seasons...

    When did we become a dictatorship where the President can just order people to go to work against their will?

    We never did.

    The shutdown is very unpopular in the real world, one of the only things that will keep people on board is if Trump, after signalling that he wants it to end as soon as possible, says that he is convinced by the evidence and the numbers to keep it going. That would be much more effective than coming out and saying that this is going to last three months – unemployment would skyrocket, markets would crash, another $5 trillion bailout would be required.

    FFS, it’s not that hard to figure that out.

    • Agree: Lot
  265. @Old Palo Altan
    Yes, exactly in accord with your first informative post on the Pareto distribution to explain the way this sort of thing works.

    Would you not agree that the real story here is theological?

    Those of us who believe in Eternity are only mildly bothered by the possibility of another six months (or days) rather than years in this Vale of Tears, while the non-believers are scared stiff.

    So scared indeed that they are willing to turn the world into an ashcan just so long as they can continue to inhabit it.

    Oh, and I was (sadly) right about Bezoz being the one man who would continue to fly high in the midst of this. I read some days ago that, while the internet and computer biggies have lost billions, he has added some 4 or 5 of the same to his pile of numbers.

    Indeed, my friend.

    When you can not the infirmities of advancing age or sudden illness not with terror but as a sign that you are striding ever quicker towards the far green country and the quickening sunrise, then and only then do you acquire the supernatural prudence the leads you to make correct decisions under grim circumstances. Those who have loved this world least have served it best.

    It is a shame about Bezos. He also seems to have benefitted from a fortuitously timely bit of insider selling just before the market tanked. I’ll take comfort from the belief that his comeuppance will not be brought about by something so mundane as a virus. He will fall into the pit he himself dug.

    Hope you are well.

  266. @Old Palo Altan
    No, he must mean the one I presume you mean: Germany.

    Ludicrously, all Brits with any influence unthinkingly accept and fanatically demand also that you and I accept without argument that the defeat of Germany in 1918 and again in 1945 were moments of great triumph, both of arms and of some higher morality, against a dangerous foe, one ravenous for British goods and Empire.

    But Germany was neither of these things, and bounced back ferociously from 1933 and again, more carefully, but with more lasting effect from the mid 1950s, while "victorious" Britain first effectively ceded its Empire to the USA after 1918 and then liquidated it completely after 1945.

    Neither the Kaiser nor the Fuehrer had ever either worked for or desired such a result, disastrous as they both knew it would be for civilisation and the white race.

    But Wilson and Roosevelt? Another story.

    It’s power that counts, not sentiments, which can change overnight.

    Britain might have been willing to tolerate Germany conquering Eastern Europe, but even that was a stretch, and Hitler breaking the Munich agreement made it impossible.

  267. @Keypusher
    Thanks, makes sense. Have been tracking deaths, will try to pay more attention to hospitalizations. Is there a good source for that? Worldometer isn’t, unless I am missing something.

    It varies by jurisdiction but Cuomo will usually point the hospitalization numbers break out those in the ICU on vents. It’s pretty bad in New York.

    https://www.propublica.org/article/coronavirus-hospitalization-numbers-are-spotty-journalists-help-us-fill-in-the-gaps

    https://covidtracking.com/data/

  268. @Captain Tripps
    It appears most of the country is having some success slowing the rate of infection. The greater New York City Metropolitan Area appears to be turning into our version of Wuhan/Lombardy (with a handful of other hotspots around the country). I think we will end up reinforcing the support to the New York area from other areas where there are very low rates if infection. As noted in previous threads there are many jurisdictions with hospitals/healthcare support that are underutilized.

    California is now 5th in the country in total deaths and Santa Clara appears to be on a promising trend.

    • Replies: @danand
    Ed, an article from sccgov.org about the first 2 “regular” 2019 flu deaths in Santa Clara County (population ~2M). Interesting bits are that 8 persons under age 65 died from flu in previous season, and that the younger victim is believed to have acquired the virus while outside the US.

    “First Two Santa Clara County Residents under the Age of 65 Years Have Died From the Flu
    September 24, 2019

    Santa Clara County, Calif. – Two people under the age of 65 years have died of the flu in Santa Clara County. One was an adult and the other a child, and both had unverified flu vaccination status. Flu season in the United States usually starts at the beginning of October each year.

    The adult who died had other medical conditions that put the individual at increased risk of severe complications from the flu. The child who died was previously healthy and had recently returned from traveling overseas. This child most likely contracted the influenza virus outside of the United States. Both cases are still being investigated. Due to medical privacy requirements, further details about these individuals will not be released.

    During the last flu season (2018-2019), eight flu-associated deaths in people under 65 years were reported in Santa Clara County. For the 2017-2018 season, the most recent national figures available, the Centers for Disease Control and Prevention estimated that 80,000 people of all ages in the United States died of the flu and its complications. During that flu season, about 80 percent of those who died were unvaccinated.

    There were 27 cases of severe flu in individuals under the age of 65 reported in Santa Clara County Public Health Department during the 2018–2019 flu season.”
     

  269. @Old Palo Altan
    Uncle Adolf was in fact very cuddly towards the British Empire; he reserved his uncuddly side for the Communists, Slavs and Jews.

    You and Art Deco would do well to read, at least, Pat Buchanan and Peter Hitchens on this issue. Then you will both get something of that education he is always going on about.

    Adolf was a lunatic fanatic who got told clearly not to invade a country. He did, and him and the poor people he led into disaster suffered the consequences. European civilisation never recovered and probably will never recover. He is the worst European in history. He had some fair gripes but he didn’t need to be a prick about it. India achieved a lot more by being a lot more reasonable.

    But then everything about him was fanatical and people like that should be kept in the theatre or the looney bin.

  270. @Steve Sailer
    Difference in disease susceptibility seems ancient.

    For ancient diseases that in 1492 were confined to some parts of the world and nonexistent in other parts.

    For a novel disease for which there has been no natural selection yet among anybody, all we could expect are random differences across racial groups that can't be predicted a priori

    People in cold climates probably have been selected for resistance to respiratory infections.

    • Replies: @Steve Sailer
    Black slavery fizzled in New England because slaves kept dying of respiratory diseases.
  271. HA says:
    @jill
    Everything that is wrong with Britain is summed up in this one regulation. I laughed at this at first but after a while I realized how pathetic it is that a government feels it is necessary to make such a statement. How must they view the intelligence level of it’s citizens?

    From the UK Coronavirus Regulations 2020:

    “Reg 6(2)(m) – to avoid injury, e.g. if your house is on fire you don’t have to stay inside it. 20/24”

    https://threadreaderapp.com/thread/1243471335700992000.html

    Some very sobering thoughts from the frontline:

    “I am an ER MD in New Orleans. Class of 98. Every one of my colleagues have now seen several hundred Covid 19 patients and this is what I think I know.”

    https://texags.com/forums/84/topics/3102444

    https://texags.com/forums/84/topics/3102444&#8221;

    Note this paragraph, of particular interest to hydroxychloroquine enthusiasts:

    Plaquenil [i.e. hydroxychloroquine ] which has weak ACE2 blockade doesn’t appear to be a savior of any kind in our patient population. Theoretically, it may have some prophylactic properties but so far it is difficult to see the benefit to our hospitalized patients, but we are using it and the studies will tell. With Plaquenil’s potential QT prolongation and liver toxic effects (both particularly problematic in covid 19 patients), I am not longer selectively prescribing this medication as I stated on a previous post.

    “QT prolongation” stands for “messing with your heart pumping cycle” (to put it crudely).

  272. @Philip Owen
    Well. Thousands of pages of evidence plan are here.

    https://www.gov.uk/guidance/pandemic-flu

    A bad plan is worthless, perhaps worse than having no plan, because it leads you in the wrong direction from the start until it’s too late to change course. Influenza and covid-19 aren’t quite alike.

  273. HA says:
    @anonguy

    Hating old people is identity politics, one of the best kinds.
     
    And also a clear violation of "Honor your mother and father", so Biblical grade sin.

    Unironically, as the kids say these days.

    “And also a clear violation of “Honor your mother and father”, so Biblical grade sin.”

    It’s also — in the case of JeSuisOmarMateen, who claims that his rage against boomers is motivated primarily by a desire to keep Biden from returning to the White House — foolishly counterproductive.

    That is to say, it’s basically a replay of the way Democrats treated white people in the last election: constantly haranguing them about how they messed things up for everyone else, gleefully looking forward to the day when they are no longer running things, and doing everything they to move that day up — and then, despite all that, expecting them to vote Hillary into the White House.

    How did that work out for them? And why does anyone think that kind of strategy will work any better this time around?

  274. @Lot
    People in cold climates probably have been selected for resistance to respiratory infections.

    Black slavery fizzled in New England because slaves kept dying of respiratory diseases.

    • Replies: @Reg Cæsar

    Black slavery fizzled in New England because slaves kept dying of respiratory diseases.
     
    It wouldn't have spread anyway. Almost all the slaves in the Northeast were in the narrow, flat coastal areas, from Cape Cod to South (then known as "West") Jersey.

    Slavery never took hold in the mountains, north or South. And quite unlike in the South, the mountains of the Northeast start very close to the sea.
    , @Sean
    People still die of the flu (and poor hygiene/ distancing in hospitals). Many might be saved from dying of the flu ECT by the lockdown. Total deaths, including those who die of COVID-19, could have a substantial shortfall by this time next year.
  275. The various “powers that be” and other assorted business interests in London couldn’t kill the tourism/London-as-a-tax-haven industry….

    So they went w something safe that made them feel good about themselves until reality slapped them in the mouth….

  276. @Jonathan Mason

    We can give him morphine so that he will be comfortable in his final hours or we can torture him for another week or 10 days and chances are 98% that the result will not change – we leave it up to you.
     
    More complicated than that. Morphine is a respiratory depressant, so it would quickly finish him off. Euthanasia, anyone? Then there are various laws that probably vary from state to state about who can given consent to withhold treatment, or to bump somebody off. Some of this depends on whether the person about to die has an extant living will document.

    Then there are jealousies between surviving family members over who benefits from the estate of the deceased, and who loses out, for example has to vacate a home they shared with the deceased, or used to drive the car of the deceased. It is a real minefield.

    Then there are jealousies between surviving family members over who benefits from the estate of the deceased, and who loses out, for example has to vacate a home they shared with the deceased, or used to drive the car of the deceased. It is a real minefield.

    Depends on the family, the people, involved. Lots of people have made their wishes known. Lots of families are not disfunctional.

    But, sure, sometimes it is a minefield. But it’s a minefield that people are traversing all the time–roughly 7500 people a day die in the US, most of them elderly, some slice of those in the “it’s time to stop now” situation.

  277. @Steve Sailer
    Difference in disease susceptibility seems ancient.

    For ancient diseases that in 1492 were confined to some parts of the world and nonexistent in other parts.

    For a novel disease for which there has been no natural selection yet among anybody, all we could expect are random differences across racial groups that can't be predicted a priori

    Even without natural selection, just plain diversity may give advantage to some groups over others.

    For example, shorter people may fall less frequently (and be less seriously injured, say in the head) compared to taller people just because their center of gravity is lower. This is true but not because shorter people have been naturally selected to better resist gravity.

    On the contrary, taller people may do better in basketball, though they have not been naturally selected (at least in the Darwinian sense)!

  278. @Neil Templeton
    I disagree, if I understand you to claim that smoking was considered healthful in 1918. Smoking has been considered pernicious since the 17th Century or before.

    • Replies: @Reg Cæsar
    He said "pernicious", not "unhealthy". Mormons, Adventists, and most women avoided tobacco. It was sinful and, in the case of women, slutty.
    , @Neil Templeton
    I'm not speaking of the testimony of advocates. I'm saying that it has been generally known for centuries that smoking has a number of ill effects.Smokers in the 17th Century and their associates were not ignorant. They were aware.
  279. @George
    What's left of the Free world:

    Belarus President Alexander Lukashenko Refusing to Let Sports Stop

    Belarus is the only European country that is still playing soccer

    https://www.insidehook.com/daily_brief/sports/alexander-lukashenko-wont-let-sports-stop-belarus

    Belarus, the land of the free, home of the brave.

    Belarus could embarrass the lockdown nations.

    Can I get that on ESPN?

  280. @Anon
    I was a child and a parent before well before 1995. There were no chickenpox parties. When my kids were young there were measles and mumps vaccines but not for chickenpox. When I and my sibs were young there were no measles mumps, measles or chickenpox vaccines.

    I and every boomer parent can tell you there were no chicken pox parties before 1995.

    Chickenpox parties were created around 2010 by hysterical liberal anti vaccine idiot women following the latest liberal fad of anti vaccine nonsense. Kathy Griffin Cher Patricia Arquette types.

    Plus women who want to blame every bit of misbehavior, bad manners, messiness, less than A grades, whatever imperfections their children have on some mysterious curse. Nowadays it’s vaccines. When we were young parents it was sugar that caused every problem. Ha ha

    “I and every boomer parent can tell you there were no chicken pox parties before 1995.”

    I don’t think I’d ever heard of a pox party until I watched an episode of South Park or The Simpsons that featured one in the late 90s or early 00s. I wonder if life imitated art?

    Besides, isn’t there a chickenpox vaccine now?

  281. @Hypnotoad666
    Politically, "just do something" always wins in a crisis. If everything is ok in the end, they can say "our efforts avoided catastrophe." If there is a catastrophe anyway, they can say "think how much worse it would have been without our efforts."

    Doing nothing, however, is always a political loser. No matter how smart it might be, it appears you don't care. Politics is all about showing you care.

    That’s a pretty cogent analysis.

  282. @Steve Sailer
    Black slavery fizzled in New England because slaves kept dying of respiratory diseases.

    Black slavery fizzled in New England because slaves kept dying of respiratory diseases.

    It wouldn’t have spread anyway. Almost all the slaves in the Northeast were in the narrow, flat coastal areas, from Cape Cod to South (then known as “West”) Jersey.

    Slavery never took hold in the mountains, north or South. And quite unlike in the South, the mountains of the Northeast start very close to the sea.

  283. @Jonathan Mason
    https://www.adweek.com/wp-content/uploads/files/camels-fresh-01-2015.jpg

    He said “pernicious”, not “unhealthy”. Mormons, Adventists, and most women avoided tobacco. It was sinful and, in the case of women, slutty.

  284. @Jonathan Mason
    https://www.adweek.com/wp-content/uploads/files/camels-fresh-01-2015.jpg

    I’m not speaking of the testimony of advocates. I’m saying that it has been generally known for centuries that smoking has a number of ill effects.Smokers in the 17th Century and their associates were not ignorant. They were aware.

  285. @Curle
    I presume you mean Russia/USSR, but I’m thinking a different rival and that they lost their opportunity between 1861-65.

    Actually they instigated two world wars.
    Which they won.
    Sort of.

  286. @Anon7
    OT: Dr Wolfgang Wodarg is a German physician specializing in Pulmonology (respiratory disease), and a politician and former chairman of the Parliamentary Assembly of the Council of Europe. So he is a career doctor who also knows how government bureaucracies work.

    He questions the panic that has ensued. He turns the usual story around, pointing out that it's possible that the novel coronavirus Covid-19 was discovered in Wuhan, China is because... Wuhan is full of virologists who are looking for novel viruses. And yes, Wuhan has unclean live animal markets, as well as being a huge megalopolis with horrible air pollution, half of the men smoke like chimneys and at any given time there are hundreds of people in ICUs on ventilators.

    But it was a Wuhan doctor who posted the virus on a worldwide database, and doctors in other countries started looking, and saying that yes, I've found a sample of this virus.

    https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=p_AyuhbnPOI

    One possible negative effect is that the Chinese government might crack down on virologists posting novel virus findings to international databases...

    They’ve been sequencing samples from all over the world and the one originally found in Wuhan is the ancestor of all the other ones.
    So it’s not a matter of it having been all over the place and they just happened to see it first.

    And this relationship would have been discovered even if China had supressed everything and this was first picked up in Washington state or Japan or Italy.
    Though of course they could’ve denied it.

    https://dna-explained.com/2020/03/12/phylogenetic-tree-of-novel-coronavirus-hcov-19-covid-19/

    • Replies: @Anon7
    I don't doubt that the Coronavirus originated in China. What I want to know is whether or not the virus had already spread around the world (and especially to the United States) by the time China reported the first death in mid-January.

    That link is a great reference, thanks for posting.
  287. @Ron Unz

    Will he stop when his prediction of “500-1000 a day” just in NY next week, then “health system collapse” and 4x that number, never actually happens?

    Nahhhh.
     
    Well, you're some fanatic pro-Israel type who's a big Trump fan, aren't you?

    Remember how a few days ago Trump was talking about maybe telling everyone to go back to work after Easter?

    At the time, I predicted he'd probably change his mind because of the exponentially-growing deaths in New York:

    https://www.unz.com/akarlin/dulce-et-decorum-est-pro-gdp-mori/#comment-3793489

    Well, the deaths have continued to grow exponentially just like I expected, and now Trump is talking about maybe imposing a strict quarantine around Greater New York, including parts of NJ and CT:

    https://www.cnn.com/2020/03/28/politics/trump-new-york-new-jersey-quarantine-coronavirus/index.html

    Perhaps I'm just forgetful, but I don't remember the federal government quarantining NYC in previous flu seasons...

    “ Well, the deaths have continued to grow exponentially just like I expected”

    A “prediction” that everyone would have made.

    The question is when such growth stops. You’re prediction is 2000-4000 a day in NY in about two weeks, right?

    I don’t think the evidence supports this at all. Italy seems to be maxing out around 900 and is the worst in the world.

  288. @vhrm
    They've been sequencing samples from all over the world and the one originally found in Wuhan is the ancestor of all the other ones.
    So it's not a matter of it having been all over the place and they just happened to see it first.

    And this relationship would have been discovered even if China had supressed everything and this was first picked up in Washington state or Japan or Italy.
    Though of course they could've denied it.

    https://dna-explained.com/2020/03/12/phylogenetic-tree-of-novel-coronavirus-hcov-19-covid-19/

    I don’t doubt that the Coronavirus originated in China. What I want to know is whether or not the virus had already spread around the world (and especially to the United States) by the time China reported the first death in mid-January.

    That link is a great reference, thanks for posting.

  289. @Paleo Liberal
    No, that is not what it means.

    The Coronavirus pandemic apparently spreads more easily and has possibly has a higher death rate than the Spanish Flu.

    If the Spanish Flu killed 1-3% of the world’s population at a time when the world was less interconnected than today, what could Coronavirus do? The possibility of 100-200 million + deaths is quite real if too little is done.

    In the US alone, we are looking at a possibility of millions of deaths.

    That is not “next to nothing “. There has never been an event in US history that has killed over 1 million citizens. The largest group deaths were in the 600-750 thousand range, which happened twice: the Civil War and the Spanish Flu.

    So, I should log you in the ‘hysterical’ column on the register.

    Good to know, good to know.

    Have a great evening!

    • Replies: @Paleo Liberal
    If by “hysterical” you mean able to do simple math and read charts, then so be it.

    People far more knowledgeable than I predicted over 2 million deaths in the US if no measures were taken.
  290. @Buzz Mohawk
    That's a good point, well taken.

    I must say, I've been a party to three living wills, all "do not resuscitate." For two, my mother and my sister, I had to give the order not to do it. My father, the third, dropped dead in his driveway (the best way to go) so I didn't have to do anything.

    BTW I notice a black eye and some bruises. Ron beat the crap out of you. You'll get back in the ring, no doubt.

  291. @Old Palo Altan
    No, he must mean the one I presume you mean: Germany.

    Ludicrously, all Brits with any influence unthinkingly accept and fanatically demand also that you and I accept without argument that the defeat of Germany in 1918 and again in 1945 were moments of great triumph, both of arms and of some higher morality, against a dangerous foe, one ravenous for British goods and Empire.

    But Germany was neither of these things, and bounced back ferociously from 1933 and again, more carefully, but with more lasting effect from the mid 1950s, while "victorious" Britain first effectively ceded its Empire to the USA after 1918 and then liquidated it completely after 1945.

    Neither the Kaiser nor the Fuehrer had ever either worked for or desired such a result, disastrous as they both knew it would be for civilisation and the white race.

    But Wilson and Roosevelt? Another story.

    “But Wilson and Roosevelt? Another story.”

    Add to that list the masonic stooge Churchill. He knew he was destroying Great Britain but probably had a great time playing the part of Britain’s greatest patriot ever. He must have had great fun carpet-bombing civilians in Germany pointlessly too.

  292. @Intelligent Dasein
    Thus, just as I said in the earlier thread, it's all about sparing the healthcare system from the odious burden of doing its own job. "What? We (hypothetically) may not have enough ventilators? Quick, shut down the country!" I mean, far be it from them to do anything crass like triage respiratory care, make broader use of other supportive therapies, jury-rig some makeshift ventilators, and rush more into production.

    No, it's obvious now that this whole stupid overreaction was all about circling the wagons around the precious healthcare system and involuntarily conscripting the citizenry to fight it its battles for it, because the agencies that we spend hundreds of billions of dollars on every year were caught absolutely flat-footed when put to a very minor test of their abilities by a slightly-worse-than-the-flu coronavirus.

    Now it seems like things are not even that bad and we aren't actually running out of ventilators. Our ruling class collectively wet their pants, spent two trillion dollars, disrupted millions of lives, and plunged us into the final bread and circuses phase of our tottering imperium, all because their bloated healthcare apparatus could not handle a miniscule public health emergency and they were afraid of looking like idiots before their Boomer electorate. What a pitiful legacy to leave behind.

    Here’s a comment from a couple of War Babies on your “generation” fixation. Them war babies knew a thing or two.

  293. @Anon7
    “...we have a bunch of well paid, well pensioned time serving yutzes who would rather lecture us that quarantines don’t work and we need to be on guard against racism.”

    I wonder if a field that really needs the best people only once every decade or so can even attract the people it needs. Also, Public Health school graduates are overwhelmingly female now, so not just racism.

    I wonder if we’ll ever find out the names of the team that botched the Covid-19 test kit rollout. Probably not, but it’s possible that it wouldn’t have mattered.

    By mid-January, it’s probable that Covid had already been seeded in dozens of US cities by visitors from all over the world. That’s when the two key differences between Covid and the flu really kicked in. Infected people shed live virus for days before they had symptoms, and a far higher percentage of sick people need hospitalization.

    Infected people shed live virus for days before they had symptoms, and a far higher percentage of sick people need hospitalization.

    Is it the case that a far higher percentage of sick people need hospitalization, or that they go to the hospital for something they ordinarily would have ridden out at home because they’ve been told they might die? I don’t know. However we don’t know how many people are really dying OF coronavirus, all we’re being told is how many people are dying WITH coronavirus.

  294. @GeologyAnon Mk 2
    An eductor style respirator has been around for years and only costs $15 wholesale. About the price of a hand grenade. I don't think it's unreasonable to stockpile those, and in military spending terms, you can get a shit load of eductors for the price of a single, useless, Littoral Combat Ship.

    Imagine if we had cut one, one single LCS class vessel and spent all that money on these expedient eductor style respirators. We would have had an easy over-supply for all domestic need in this current crisis, and could have easily sent our surplus to Italy, or on a hospital ship to help the Iranians in a gesture of compassion and to bury the hatchet with them, which would do much to tarnish the satanic image of Americans their government our own have created in their minds. And it would have done far more for peace in the middle east and national security than any number of Littoral Combat Ships, for example.

    The stimulus package burned $500 billion for 'Corporate Liquidity' compared to the $360 billion direct payments to citizens. More socialism for these corporations, but without any useful strings attached: like, you must use E-Verify, or you must insource all manufacturing from overseas.

    Who pays for all this? The old? Who earned their money when taxes were lower and now have largely tax protected income? The same elderly who are driving social security and medicare into insolvency?

    No, the young. The ones hardest hit by the idiotic quarantines, and least likely to be afflicted by the disease. Is there anything else we can do for the Baby Boomers and Silents?

    Do you understand why we hate you so much?

    Touch your face and breathe deep.

    Do you understand why we hate you so much?

    Touch your face and breathe deep.

    Shouldn’t you be out on a ledge somewhere?

  295. @dearieme
    I don't suppose that the Germans who bombed towns in the Spanish Civil War thought "What will happen if some other country proves to be better at this than we are?"

    I don’t suppose that the likes of you will ever admit that “appeasement” is just an idiomatic expression for “please wait a minute, the heavy bombers are not production ready quite now”.

    • Replies: @dearieme
    "Appeasement" is what you get in a democracy when the electorate is dead set against rearming and the Opposition party is determined to appeal to that sentiment.

    The countries that rearmed were largely the anti-democracies (with, I assume, the usual exception of Switzerland).
    , @keypusher
    Nor should he agree to such an idiotic statement.
  296. @Haruto Rat

    That said, our death rate is obviously lower than most Western European countries, especially Italy and Spain. Possible explanations:
     
    As far as I can tell, last two or three flu seasons have been quite mild in Europe, leading to more people living overtime.

    (It's hard to get any numerical data - all those "flu watches" only offer colored maps suitable for a five-year old, or journalists; see the winter peaks on EuroMOMO charts though.)

    The Euro MOMO data is the best I’ve seen. Those winter peaks are amazingly regular – not that they happen every year, but that when they do happen, the onset seems to be almost right at January 1st. I wonder if it’s the hang-on-effect. Most of those peaks represent old people dying. Perhaps a lot of them hang on to see one more Christmas and New Year.

    Stephen McIntyre has dug up similar looking data for pneumonia in the United States. The peaks for the last two years were relatively low. So, as you mention, there are a lot of old people who were not swept away over those last two years but who are living on borrowed time, if you will. It’s analagous to forest fires – if you have a couple of quite summers in a row with few fires, you build up alot of underbrush. And when the drought year comes…………….

  297. @Jonathan Mason

    We can give him morphine so that he will be comfortable in his final hours or we can torture him for another week or 10 days and chances are 98% that the result will not change – we leave it up to you.
     
    More complicated than that. Morphine is a respiratory depressant, so it would quickly finish him off. Euthanasia, anyone? Then there are various laws that probably vary from state to state about who can given consent to withhold treatment, or to bump somebody off. Some of this depends on whether the person about to die has an extant living will document.

    Then there are jealousies between surviving family members over who benefits from the estate of the deceased, and who loses out, for example has to vacate a home they shared with the deceased, or used to drive the car of the deceased. It is a real minefield.

    Morphine is a respiratory depressant, so it would quickly finish him off. Euthanasia, anyone?

    My father grew up in a small town in the 1930s. His father was good friends with the town physician, who confided that morphine was often the most humane therapy in late-stage terminal illness, for the reason you specified above.

    As other commenters here have mentioned, fear of dying — particularly painful and protracted dying — often outweighs fear of death itself. My father-in-law, in his mid-80s, died of a sudden heart attack. He had complained on the morning of his death of a stomach ache, though he did accompany my wife to do some banking. In less that 24 hours, he was gone. A fortunate death indeed.

  298. All European countries seem to have gotten it wrong, wit the British taking the price for sheer neglect.

    It seems the Korean example cannot be followed here for lack of protective masks. These masks apparently were too expensive to stock, so now we are in lockdown because we are in dire need of some cheap and rather trivial items.

    Those genius MBA types who discovered that keeping stocks is bad cost us dearly now.

    As an example, some shortly before the crisis was officially discovered, Belgium destryed 6.000.000 masks because they had passed their storage limit (which seems to be meaningless with these items in a technical sense) without replacing them – for economical reasons, obviously.

    Economy, meet ideology.

    https://www.miss.at/belgien-zerstoerte-2019-sechs-millionen-schutzmasken/?cn-reloaded=1

    https://www.lemonde.fr/international/article/2020/03/25/la-belgique-toujours-en-manque-de-masques-possedait-un-stock-important-mais-l-a-detruit_6034437_3210.html

    • Replies: @Joe Stalin
    Is that how European governments work?

    Why wouldn't you sell this stuff to the general public as material surplus to needs? The populace can't be trusted to have old face masks because, what, you might use them for some nefarious purpose?

    In the USA, Belgian military surplus bandages are for sale:

    https://www.sportsmansguide.com/product/index/belgian-military-surplus-triangular-bandages-20-pack-new?a=1781322

    So why would you destroy an innocuous mask?
  299. @Travis
    True , better to avoid getting out on a ventilator. Ventilated patients often suffer from irreversable lung damage due to the ventilator.

    It is well established that mechanical ventilation can injure the lung, producing an entity known as ventilator-induced lung injury (VILI). There are various forms of VILI, including volutrauma (i.e., injury caused by overdistending the lung), atelectrauma (injury due to repeated opening/closing of lung units), and biotrauma (release of mediators that can induce lung injury or aggravate pre-existing injury, potentially leading to multiple organ failure). Experimental data in the pediatric context are in accord with the importance of VILI, and appear to show age-related susceptibility to VILI.

    evidence suggests that ventilation causes more subtle morphological and functional changes and can excite an inflammatory response within the lung. This type of injury was not recognised for many years as the pattern of damage is often indistinguishable from that seen in other forms of lung injury such as the acute respiratory distress syndrome (ARDS).

    I’m swimming well out of my lane, but in a thread a while ago i was musing about whether “iron lung” type ventilators have any role to play.
    A confident (and possibly knowledgeable) sounding commenter said “no”, but there are some studies from mid 2000’s that suggest it could work well and especially cause less VILI and pneumonia and also presumably no tracheal damage (since there’s nothing in your throat).

    some links in this comment: (which is supposed to be a reply to the comment right above it but i clicked the wrong button so it doesn’t have the link)
    https://www.unz.com/isteve/on-the-other-hand-ioannidiss-critique/#comment-3784640

    Oh hey, i see that that tread started with one of your comments too..

    Maybe the interest in ventilation now will get them another look after this crisis is over. The “intubated” kind of ventilator just seems like overall a pretty terrible way to be, except perhaps short stints during surgery or something.

    • Replies: @but an humble craftsman
    Iron lungs are not made anymore, but there is a modern replacement: https://www.ncbi.nlm.nih.gov/pubmed/16548815
  300. @Ed
    California is now 5th in the country in total deaths and Santa Clara appears to be on a promising trend.

    https://twitter.com/mzjacobson/status/1244046727193038854?s=21

    Ed, an article from sccgov.org about the first 2 “regular” 2019 flu deaths in Santa Clara County (population ~2M). Interesting bits are that 8 persons under age 65 died from flu in previous season, and that the younger victim is believed to have acquired the virus while outside the US.

    “First Two Santa Clara County Residents under the Age of 65 Years Have Died From the Flu
    September 24, 2019

    Santa Clara County, Calif. – Two people under the age of 65 years have died of the flu in Santa Clara County. One was an adult and the other a child, and both had unverified flu vaccination status. Flu season in the United States usually starts at the beginning of October each year.

    The adult who died had other medical conditions that put the individual at increased risk of severe complications from the flu. The child who died was previously healthy and had recently returned from traveling overseas. This child most likely contracted the influenza virus outside of the United States. Both cases are still being investigated. Due to medical privacy requirements, further details about these individuals will not be released.

    During the last flu season (2018-2019), eight flu-associated deaths in people under 65 years were reported in Santa Clara County. For the 2017-2018 season, the most recent national figures available, the Centers for Disease Control and Prevention estimated that 80,000 people of all ages in the United States died of the flu and its complications. During that flu season, about 80 percent of those who died were unvaccinated.

    There were 27 cases of severe flu in individuals under the age of 65 reported in Santa Clara County Public Health Department during the 2018–2019 flu season.”

  301. @Anon
    I was a child and a parent before well before 1995. There were no chickenpox parties. When my kids were young there were measles and mumps vaccines but not for chickenpox. When I and my sibs were young there were no measles mumps, measles or chickenpox vaccines.

    I and every boomer parent can tell you there were no chicken pox parties before 1995.

    Chickenpox parties were created around 2010 by hysterical liberal anti vaccine idiot women following the latest liberal fad of anti vaccine nonsense. Kathy Griffin Cher Patricia Arquette types.

    Plus women who want to blame every bit of misbehavior, bad manners, messiness, less than A grades, whatever imperfections their children have on some mysterious curse. Nowadays it’s vaccines. When we were young parents it was sugar that caused every problem. Ha ha

    Per wikipedia, chicken pox vaccine was first licensed in the U.S. in 1995. I am absolutely sure that in 1988 on the west coast of the U.S. I sent my son to a chickenpox party.

  302. @vhrm
    I'm swimming well out of my lane, but in a thread a while ago i was musing about whether "iron lung" type ventilators have any role to play.
    A confident (and possibly knowledgeable) sounding commenter said "no", but there are some studies from mid 2000's that suggest it could work well and especially cause less VILI and pneumonia and also presumably no tracheal damage (since there's nothing in your throat).

    some links in this comment: (which is supposed to be a reply to the comment right above it but i clicked the wrong button so it doesn't have the link)
    https://www.unz.com/isteve/on-the-other-hand-ioannidiss-critique/#comment-3784640

    Oh hey, i see that that tread started with one of your comments too..

    Maybe the interest in ventilation now will get them another look after this crisis is over. The "intubated" kind of ventilator just seems like overall a pretty terrible way to be, except perhaps short stints during surgery or something.

    Iron lungs are not made anymore, but there is a modern replacement: https://www.ncbi.nlm.nih.gov/pubmed/16548815

  303. @but an humble craftsman
    I don't suppose that the likes of you will ever admit that "appeasement" is just an idiomatic expression for "please wait a minute, the heavy bombers are not production ready quite now".

    “Appeasement” is what you get in a democracy when the electorate is dead set against rearming and the Opposition party is determined to appeal to that sentiment.

    The countries that rearmed were largely the anti-democracies (with, I assume, the usual exception of Switzerland).

    • Disagree: but an humble craftsman
  304. @but an humble craftsman
    I don't suppose that the likes of you will ever admit that "appeasement" is just an idiomatic expression for "please wait a minute, the heavy bombers are not production ready quite now".

    Nor should he agree to such an idiotic statement.

  305. @The Wild Geese Howard
    So, I should log you in the 'hysterical' column on the register.

    Good to know, good to know.

    Have a great evening!

    If by “hysterical” you mean able to do simple math and read charts, then so be it.

    People far more knowledgeable than I predicted over 2 million deaths in the US if no measures were taken.

  306. @but an humble craftsman
    Those people lost the largest empire in human history by twice mistaking which one of their rivals was the serious threat and still celebrate their double triumph --you do not seriously expect them to think things through, do you?

    The Germans were insanely jealous of the English and went out of their way to make sure the war happened. The English were fine letting them have some colonies for prestige and a modest Navy that could stand it’s own against most powers as long as it didn’t become big enough to threaten the Royal Navy but they wanted a “reckoning” anyway. They expected to fight the last war and thought it would go like the Franco Prussian War. To be fair nobody expected the stalemate and bloodbath that occurred in 1914, a short war for dominance was expected that would settle things out with modest casualties. The treaty of course was an abomination, particularly since the Germans sent the Kaiser packing and they went ahead and ruined their economy anyway instead of letting them get back on their feet with new leadership the way MacArthur did in Japan.

  307. @PiltdownMan
    Somewhat OT:

    https://www.venteclife.com/assets/images/VOCSN-Explode---Engineered-Tough-Labels-01_1500.jpg

    Made by these nice folks, in Kokomo, IN.

    https://fs29.formsite.com/M6gPle/images/ventec_team.jpg

    https://www.venteclife.com/assets/images/accentimages/accent_gm_ventec_jobs2.jpg

    $16.67/hour if you want to apply to join them and GM in making the ventilators.

    https://gm.selectrakonline.com/Apply/Portal/Index/21?positionReqId=653&positionId=583&facilityId=277

    So who is going to tool up all the machines, injection molds, etch to make all the individual parts from scrap? How many PCB makers are left in the US to build the fiberglass electronic boards? Do we have the chips to populate the boards? Where is that fan made? Sure we can build them, but in time? I also noticed Fox lucked out with that medical show with Bruce Greenwood running a plot about a superbug respiratory fungus getting into the ventilators in their hospital due to a doctor trying to cover his ass for doing an elaborate surgery he was told was too risky and turned the lady into a vegetable on a “vent farm” where she started the epidemic. A lot of the public got to see a bit of how these “ventilators” work.

    • Replies: @Anonymous
    All the PCB houses are in China because dumping cyanides and heavy metal laden compounds in the environment is okay there. Only some very classified military and hi rel aerospace stuff is done in the US. That and hobbyists and some CNC in-house prototyping of single or at most two layer boards.
  308. @Steve Sailer
    Black slavery fizzled in New England because slaves kept dying of respiratory diseases.

    People still die of the flu (and poor hygiene/ distancing in hospitals). Many might be saved from dying of the flu ECT by the lockdown. Total deaths, including those who die of COVID-19, could have a substantial shortfall by this time next year.

  309. @but an humble craftsman
    All European countries seem to have gotten it wrong, wit the British taking the price for sheer neglect.

    It seems the Korean example cannot be followed here for lack of protective masks. These masks apparently were too expensive to stock, so now we are in lockdown because we are in dire need of some cheap and rather trivial items.

    Those genius MBA types who discovered that keeping stocks is bad cost us dearly now.

    As an example, some shortly before the crisis was officially discovered, Belgium destryed 6.000.000 masks because they had passed their storage limit (which seems to be meaningless with these items in a technical sense) without replacing them - for economical reasons, obviously.

    Economy, meet ideology.

    https://www.miss.at/belgien-zerstoerte-2019-sechs-millionen-schutzmasken/?cn-reloaded=1

    https://www.lemonde.fr/international/article/2020/03/25/la-belgique-toujours-en-manque-de-masques-possedait-un-stock-important-mais-l-a-detruit_6034437_3210.html

    Is that how European governments work?

    Why wouldn’t you sell this stuff to the general public as material surplus to needs? The populace can’t be trusted to have old face masks because, what, you might use them for some nefarious purpose?

    In the USA, Belgian military surplus bandages are for sale:

    https://www.sportsmansguide.com/product/index/belgian-military-surplus-triangular-bandages-20-pack-new?a=1781322

    So why would you destroy an innocuous mask?

  310. @dearieme
    I don't suppose that the Germans who bombed towns in the Spanish Civil War thought "What will happen if some other country proves to be better at this than we are?"

    Red herring. Off-topic. I repeat. Not many people died in the Blitz. The way they talk about it, you’d think it was the crime of the century.

  311. @anonguy
    Herd immunity, without cure or vaccine, is unironically natural selection with a different name.

    It was a shockingly amoral proposition, that it could even be discussed is evidence much far soulless, sociopathic capitalism has become the cultural norm.

    It’s like the word “stochastic,” which really means, “people are going to die.”

  312. @Glaivester
    It will resolve ventilator shortages by flattening the curve so that fewer people will need the ventilators at any one time.

    The herd immunity strategy was based on controlling infection rates so that the medical system would not be overwhelmed (and in controlling the demographics of infection so that the greatest number of people from the least vulnerable populations would be infected so that they could become immune to carrying the disease later). If the hospitalization rate is higher than predicted, infection rates must be kept lower.

    More to the point, if the disease is more dangerous to young people than previously thought, or if the death rate is high even with the maximum hospital intervention, the herd immunity strategy may not work well.

    Herd immunity is really designed for a disease where there are populations for whom the disease is not a big deal (quarantine everyone else, get them all infected now and they will be barriers to disease transmission in the future) or in which medical intervention is a big factor in survival (keep transmission rates to vulnerable populations to where there will be enough hospital beds, ventilators, etc. for everyone who needs one). Otherwise, it is no more effective than doing nothing.

    the herd immunity strategy may not work well.

    The herd immunity strategy might also not work if getting COVID-19 does not make you immune. There seems to be very little evidence that getting the disease confers long-term immunity. Maybe the geniuses promoting herd immunity should have checked that one basic fact first.

  313. @Travis
    good point about ventilators...they do not save lives, they merely delay death by 12 days. This was also observed during theH1N1 pandemic in 2009.

    With swine flu the majority of those put on a ventilator died.
    Mortality was 74% among ventilated patients for H1N1.
    https://www.ncbi.nlm.nih.gov/pmc/articles/PMC3275972/

    good point about ventilators…they do not save lives, they merely delay death by 12 days.

    Maybe the authorities should be worrying more about mass producing masks (which at least seem to have some efficacy) rather than obsessing about ventilators.

  314. Anonymous[176] • Disclaimer says:
    @Sebastian Hawks
    So who is going to tool up all the machines, injection molds, etch to make all the individual parts from scrap? How many PCB makers are left in the US to build the fiberglass electronic boards? Do we have the chips to populate the boards? Where is that fan made? Sure we can build them, but in time? I also noticed Fox lucked out with that medical show with Bruce Greenwood running a plot about a superbug respiratory fungus getting into the ventilators in their hospital due to a doctor trying to cover his ass for doing an elaborate surgery he was told was too risky and turned the lady into a vegetable on a "vent farm" where she started the epidemic. A lot of the public got to see a bit of how these "ventilators" work.

    All the PCB houses are in China because dumping cyanides and heavy metal laden compounds in the environment is okay there. Only some very classified military and hi rel aerospace stuff is done in the US. That and hobbyists and some CNC in-house prototyping of single or at most two layer boards.

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