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From iSteve commenter JohnnyWalker123:

What about Canada? They have a fifth of our Corona-related mortality rate.

The USA’s mortality rate is 10 per 1 million population.
Canada’s mortality rate is 2 per 1 million population.

They also have only 40% of our case rate.

The USA’s rate of Corona cases is 495 per 1 million population.
Canada’s rate is 197 per 1 million population.

What is Canada doing right?

Is there a pattern where it hits hardest in Spring weather, so Russia, Sweden, and Canada seem to be spared so far, but a little further south it’s bad?

Or does Canada have one weird trick that would do us wonders if we could only figure out what it is?

Or is it just that they got started later and that all things that rise must converge?

 
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  1. There was one chart which showed that the places by that point to have been hit the hardest were all within a narrow temperature and humidity band — Wuhan, N Italy, New York, etc. The speculation was that as temperatures rose in the spring and summer, the virus would head north, and that Chicago and Detroit would soon be hard hit.

    OTOH, so were New Orleans and Madrid.

    So we can’t really be certain.

    • Replies: @Reg Cæsar

    OTOH, so were New Orleans and Madrid.

     

    Madrid is at the latitude of Philadelphia and Columbus. And Denver. Madrid is also very dry.
    , @DanHessinMD
    Paleo Liberal --

    You are referring to this paper:
    Sajadi et al. (2020) Temperature and Latitude Analysis to Predict Potential Spread and Seasonality for COVID-19

    https://papers.ssrn.com/sol3/papers.cfm?abstract_id=3550308

    My sense is that the virus
    (1) does not thrive in high heat and humidity
    (2) is killed in outdoor areas when the temperature drops below freezing.

    Hence the sweet spot: As close to freezing as possible without going below freezing. This means colder climes have their peaks still ahead of them.
    , @indocon
    Canada is doing better probably for the same reason Germany and Poland are, latitude.

    Expect Turkey to be the next disaster zone, it falls squarely in that band of high infection rate latitude.

    , @gancelin
    Uh, Madrid: Latitude 40.41
    NYC: Latitude 40.42

    Not dispositive, but....
  2. What is Canada doing right?

    Less air pollution and fewer quasi-third-world hygiene conditions?

    • Replies: @CrunchyButRealistCon
    With the exception of the western suburbs of Detroit, isn't the pattern in a 200 mile band south of the US-CAN border similar to what's happening inside Canada? Probably Seattle, Buffalo, Burlington, Cleveland & Duluth have similar age and activity profiles (lot of "snowbirds" who spend the winter in the southeast, and live in suburbs). Expect that the relative scarcity of jet set Plutocrats in Canada may have redounded to their benefit at this point. There were a lot of Asian SARS patients in Canada in 2003 - perhaps they gained some cross-over immunity or have adopted the habit of wearing masks.
  3. A problem with masks is you feel like a doofus being the only one wearing one, and also rude for freaking people out.

    I brought one to the store today, couldn’t being myself to put it on. 3 out of about 30 had masks on, 2/5 employees and 1/25 customers.

    Make it compulsory and these issues disappear.

    Traffic was down substantially from late last week’s already low amount. 5:30pm on a weekday was like 5am on a Sunday.

    People have hoarded everything they need now and about half of restaurants that planned on staying open for takeout two weeks ago have given up and closed. The other half are nearly dead too.

    • Replies: @Dieter Kief

    A problem with masks is you feel like a doofus being the only one wearing one, and also rude for freaking people out.

     

    Soemhow a solution for this problem:

    The German city Jena has just declared masks obligatory in public.
    , @Mr McKenna
    I'm amazed that you are still going to the store.
    , @danand

    "Traffic was down substantially from late last week’s already low amount."
     
    Lot, sideshow traffic is up, at least up in Oakland California. News report on the action from this last Sunday:

    https://youtu.be/pdqYLZmfrtI



    In this video of the same "event", the police, or perhaps someone in the crowd, fires off a few rounds amongst the chaos:

    https://youtu.be/OfU2FKfcGeg?t=128
    , @Unicephalon40D
    You need to grow a thicker skin.

    Times like these, nobody looks askance at a guy wearing a surgical mask or N95 respirator. And, even if they did, who gives a damn?
    , @Lockean Proviso
    I've worn my N95 to the post office and grocery store and found that it produces a rather hostile response in some even though I'm just going about my business. (For what it's worth this doesn't happen when I go out without a mask as I have for all the years before now). I think that some assume that I'm sick and that's why I have the mask on. Or maybe they are more attuned to the belief that mask wearing is a threat associated with robbers. Maybe it's just a reminder that there's a weird and pervasive threat in our midst now. I live in a very conservative area and maybe some view wearing a mask as a repudiation of Trump's competence to keep us all safe or as giving in to fake news exaggerations designed to make Trump look bad. Probably it differs depending on the individual– they've been both black and white. Most people don't mind and some seem to approve of it as a form of social responsibility (which is exactly what it is), but there are a few who don't like it.

    I will continue to wear it when I have to go into a business with other people, but not when I ride my bike around town for exercise. Masks make sense sometimes even if other people don't.
    , @AnotherDad
    Geez, man up, Lot.

    You're not even alone here, you've got other people on board. Do the right thing.

    ~~

    One thing i told my kids is that one of the only benefits to growing old beyond the things you have built--material possessions, knowledge, and most of all family--is that you have less social anxiety. You know who you are, have confidence in yourself and are less worried about the perception of others.
    , @Thea
    In my head I’ve pictured you as a former alternative fan who didn’t care much what others thought. Like in the 90s you were rockin’ out to Sonic Youth and had a vinyl collection, man.
    , @Jack D
    I wouldn't know. We've been doing the online grocery ordering thing. It's more expensive, they either don't have a lot of the stuff or else propose unsuitable substitutions and I'd rather be picking out my own bananas but as between getting the best quality produce and not exposing myself to an epidemic, I choose the latter. When I complained to instacart about a couple of things they credited me and did not quibble, but it was the first time I complained.

    My chances are fairly good (if not perfect) but we are the lifeline to my 97 year old mother in law so I really don't want to be responsible for killing the old dame in order to pick out my own tomatoes. I miss going to the store but I am hoping that things will calm down in a few weeks so that the possibility of death/possibility of getting a ripe melon risk/reward ratio will be more in balance.
    , @Desiderius

    you feel like a doofus being the only one wearing one
     
    What the actual fuck.

    You've been a leader all your life, Lot.

    It's well past time you admitted it to yourself.

    Wear the mask like you know what you're doing and other people will naturally follow. It's even easier this time because you actually do. Can make it without even having to fake it.

    , @GeologyAnon
    An ER doctor friend of mine was told by one of those so helpful "hospital administrators" that doctors would not be allowed to wear N95s while seeing patients as it would "scare them".

    This while they had three covid cases in the same ER.

    Meanwhile most of the docs are getting their hours and pay cut by about half as the admins are cutting shifts since no one wants to come into the hospital.

    Happy Doctor's Day, suckers!
    , @petit bourgeois
    Don't worry about what other people think Lot. I've been going full coronavirus commando for a week now whenever I leave the house with an n95 mask and black nitrile gloves. Gradually you'll be seeing more and more people masking up in public, provided anyone can find them.

    Here in sunny southern California, the demographic differences in the use of masks is quite observable.

    For example, in Santa Ana (majority Mexican), on Sunday, the girlfriend had an overwhelming craving for Chile Verde. So we masked and gloved up and drove through the ghetto to 6-7 restaurants for takeout, trying to find the elusive green guisado. After an hour and a half, mission accomplished. I saw one face mask out of hundreds of people.

    Last night we went to Albertsons in Irvine (Chinese, Persian, White community) for some Stolichnaya, and it was far more civilized. About 30% were masked up and they even had lines taped on the floor to distance people in the checkout lines. The difference in how clean and civilized in that demographic was patently obvious.

    The problem is the n95 masks have been hoarded to extinction. My ultra woo woo girlfriend (she makes her own liposomal vitamin C) was prescient enough to find some n95 masks at a lumber store last month. They are for sanding and fiberglass and don't seal perfectly but they're better than nothing.

    If you go to the Culver City-based Moldex website ( https://www.moldex.com/where-to-buy/ ) and try to find a single industrial safety products distributor selling a disposable n95 mask, it's an exercise in futility.

    It may be better to get a full face reusable respirator if this thing goes on forever. I'm thinking of getting one of their series 9000 masks, if I can find one:

    https://www.moldex.com/product/9000-series-reusable-light-weight-full-face-respirator/

    I think that mask will probably be met with considerable social distancing in the checkout lines at the supermarket.
  4. How is Canada doing on the testing front? Did they do testing, quarantine, and and contact tracing? Stop flights from China, Italy, and Iran early enough that it mattered?

    Perhaps they just don’t have the NYC metro area.

    We saw from that graph video that countries are on pretty much the same new cases vs total cases line. Maybe their weird trick is just being a couple weeks behind us.

    • Replies: @Anonymous
    Toronto is quite dense
    , @The Dude
    We're not doing much better on the testing front. Per capita we're on par with the US. We didn't institute any travel restrictions or any other preventive measures--so we're all silently expecting a tsunami. There is a real possibility that we are fudging the numbers or that there is a spike coming our way. There is also the possibility that virus has been circulating here since late November (large Chinese diaspora in Toronto and Vancouver and lots of yuppie globetrotters). Ontario is still tightening measures, and they seem to be reducing the scope of information that is being released. Make of all this what you will, but it seems like the authorities know something they're not telling us.

    That said, I've been considering why the virus is hitting different places differently. While Spain and Italy are getting hit hard, the Balkans with a similar climate and environmental conditions, and similar cultural practices, and similar densely packed cities, is relatively quiet so far, despite there being many seasonal workers who spend time in Italy, and despite the fact that the Balkan states are run by a series of Peter Sellers characters. The main difference between Spain and Italy and the Balkans is that the Spaniards and Italians are still devoutly Catholic. The Balkans is predominantly Orthodox (with the exception of Croatia, Slovenia and parts of Albania), but the connection to the religious traditions was cut off for the Orthodox parts during the Communist era. Italians and Spaniards partake in the communion to a much higher degree than the peoples of the Balkans. This could be the cause behind the high concentration of the virus in Spain and Italy, which in turn makes it more deadly.
    If viral loads (concentration of the virus) is a factor, then Canada should see a much lower death rate than the US. For one, Canada has only one true large NYC-wannabe city: Toronto, which is where over 60% of cases in Ontario are registered. Vancouver has tall buildings, but the streets are largely empty. Montreal might be problematic as it has a large Jewish, Italian and French-Catholic population, but it, too, is not as busy a place as NYC, especially in wintertime. In Toronto you see a lot of what you'd see in NYC--self important twats walking around with headphones in the ears yapping away as if the world would stop spinning if they shut their pie-holes for even a minute. This yapping theoretically causes them to inadvertently spit. As the virus remains airborne for only a short amount of time, this is not a problem in suburban and rural areas, and small and medium sized cities, but it could be a factor in places where people are constantly walking in the air just vacated by a yapping twat. Where the airborne virus does not get picked up in the air by a walker, it drops on the ground and gets picked up by the walker's shoes, from where it gets introduced into people's working and living spaces. Then there is the crowding, the public transport, the vibrancy, and all the other factors, which play no role in non-big cities. I'm guessing that our tourist areas, which would be the equivalent to New Orleans, were spared since the outbreak happened when our biggest tourist spots experience their low season. Had this taken place a month later, southern Ontario could have been the next Lombardy.
  5. @Paleo Liberal
    There was one chart which showed that the places by that point to have been hit the hardest were all within a narrow temperature and humidity band — Wuhan, N Italy, New York, etc. The speculation was that as temperatures rose in the spring and summer, the virus would head north, and that Chicago and Detroit would soon be hard hit.

    OTOH, so were New Orleans and Madrid.

    So we can’t really be certain.

    OTOH, so were New Orleans and Madrid.

    Madrid is at the latitude of Philadelphia and Columbus. And Denver. Madrid is also very dry.

    • Agree: BB753
    • Replies: @slumber_j
    Well, latitude doesn't necessarily indicate all that much in Western Europe: Ezra Pound pointed out that Rome was the same latitude as New York City, which proved something about US culture's being fundamentally Mediterranean--an instance of an otherwise brilliant man spouting complete nonsense. But yeah, Madrid is elevated and certainly very dry and surprisingly cold for Spain.
    , @Mr. Anon
    Madrid apparently has pretty bad air pollution. So does Lombardy. Check out this map of NO2 levels:

    https://www.esa.int/var/esa/storage/images/esa_multimedia/images/2004/10/no2_levels_over_europe_-_zoom_for_detail/10316365-2-eng-GB/NO2_levels_over_Europe_-_zoom_for_detail_article.jpg

    NO2 pollution is probably also going to be associated with soot and hydrocarbons too. Living in a high air-pollution area means that even if you don't smoke at all, you will have the lungs of (at least) a moderate smoker.

  6. Maybe they’re just politer to it, eh?

    Remember to tip your waitresses, folks!

  7. @Lot
    A problem with masks is you feel like a doofus being the only one wearing one, and also rude for freaking people out.

    I brought one to the store today, couldn’t being myself to put it on. 3 out of about 30 had masks on, 2/5 employees and 1/25 customers.

    Make it compulsory and these issues disappear.

    Traffic was down substantially from late last week’s already low amount. 5:30pm on a weekday was like 5am on a Sunday.

    People have hoarded everything they need now and about half of restaurants that planned on staying open for takeout two weeks ago have given up and closed. The other half are nearly dead too.

    A problem with masks is you feel like a doofus being the only one wearing one, and also rude for freaking people out.

    Soemhow a solution for this problem:

    The German city Jena has just declared masks obligatory in public.

    • Replies: @Anon

    The German city Jena has just declared masks obligatory in public.
     
    As has Czechia and, in supermarkets at least, Austria.

    Mask shortages means not everyone can wear one in the U.S. And the cost of masks mean that such laws would run counter to Diversity, Inclusion, and Equity (same deal with online courses when ghetto residents and illegal aliens don't have internet connectivity).

    Austria requires supermarkets to supply masks, and somehow sees to it that the supermarkets have them.

    The supermarket thing might be enough, since once you get over your self-consciousness by being in a space where everyone is wearing masks, you can probably deal with it in other spaces where mask wearing is not 100 percent. But it should be 100 percent, since much of mask efficacy is catching outbound coughs and other expulsions of virus, i.e., other-directed, not self-directed. And it's easier for local government to regulate what supermarkets do than to regulate individuals.

    , @PiltdownMan

    The German city Jena has just declared masks obligatory in public.

     

    Not the first time they've done that in Jena, we can be pretty sure.

    https://i.pinimg.com/originals/e6/c4/25/e6c425ed0b4c945a73c31e81db76eff0.jpg
    , @John Cunningham
    There is a fair chance that wearing a mask might slightly improve one's prospects, and. I humbly suggest that if you are worried that people might consider you a doofus, you are too f*cking stupid to go out in public. Stay in your basement.
  8. What Is Canada Doing Right?

    Everything’s “paid for” right? Since we cover illegal migrants I assume they do too? But they don’t have anywhere near as many, for some reason. Better border controls? (NB: I’m not positing these as reasons.)

    Cigna to waive patient costs for COVID-19 treatment

    Health insurance giant Cigna is waiving patient costs related to COVID-19 treatment.

    Nearly all insurance plans are offering to cover the cost of testing but Cigna joins Aetna and Humana in guaranteeing policyholders are not liable for care related to the pandemic.

    Reminds me of how it’s best if your un- or under-insured house is destroyed in a Federally-Declared Disaster–they you get the Free Money! If your place was wrecked by an event no one’s heard of or cares about, that’s on you.

    • Replies: @International Jew

    Cigna to waive patient costs for COVID-19 treatment
     
    I take that as a sign that they expect Corona to be a nothingburger when all is said and done.

    I'm encouraged.
    , @Brian Reilly
    Mr. McKenna, Isn't it pretty likely that the reason Canada has far fewer(as a percentage of total population) illegal immigrants, or unaccounted migrants (or whatever the acceptable term is these days) is that it has the USA on it's southern border, rather than Mexico or another completely failed state? And that most of Canada is too cold for too much of the year to appeal to almost anyone? I guarantee that the reason Canada has fewer illegals do not include border controls, laws or habits of civility.

    Also, Canada admits HUGE numbers of Chinese and Indian (dot) immigrants legally. S many that the old original Canadian ethnic stock will be mostly gone in another couple generations, say 40 years or so. Look for people to be LEAVING Canada, not immigrating.
    , @Anon
    What does that mean? I belong to Cigna, PPO, no co pays, ultra cheap prescriptions like $2-$5 dollars. They already cover all my costs for what I and my employer pay them. How generous, they’ll fulfill their contractual obligations for which I pay in advance.
  9. @Lot
    A problem with masks is you feel like a doofus being the only one wearing one, and also rude for freaking people out.

    I brought one to the store today, couldn’t being myself to put it on. 3 out of about 30 had masks on, 2/5 employees and 1/25 customers.

    Make it compulsory and these issues disappear.

    Traffic was down substantially from late last week’s already low amount. 5:30pm on a weekday was like 5am on a Sunday.

    People have hoarded everything they need now and about half of restaurants that planned on staying open for takeout two weeks ago have given up and closed. The other half are nearly dead too.

    I’m amazed that you are still going to the store.

    • Agree: Couch scientist
    • Replies: @Testing12
    Why?
    , @TomSchmidt
    Why?
  10. Anon[195] • Disclaimer says:
    @Dieter Kief

    A problem with masks is you feel like a doofus being the only one wearing one, and also rude for freaking people out.

     

    Soemhow a solution for this problem:

    The German city Jena has just declared masks obligatory in public.

    The German city Jena has just declared masks obligatory in public.

    As has Czechia and, in supermarkets at least, Austria.

    Mask shortages means not everyone can wear one in the U.S. And the cost of masks mean that such laws would run counter to Diversity, Inclusion, and Equity (same deal with online courses when ghetto residents and illegal aliens don’t have internet connectivity).

    Austria requires supermarkets to supply masks, and somehow sees to it that the supermarkets have them.

    The supermarket thing might be enough, since once you get over your self-consciousness by being in a space where everyone is wearing masks, you can probably deal with it in other spaces where mask wearing is not 100 percent. But it should be 100 percent, since much of mask efficacy is catching outbound coughs and other expulsions of virus, i.e., other-directed, not self-directed. And it’s easier for local government to regulate what supermarkets do than to regulate individuals.

  11. The data collection is so bad and inconsistent it is hard to tell what is going on. Has Russia been spared? The mayor of Moscow just announced a draconian lockdown – is he seeing horrific data that’s not been released or overreacting? If Sweden has been spared why does the death rate there appear to be twice the death toll in Austria, even though we are next to northern Italy? Why does California appear relatively unscathed so far? How did Iran turn from basket case to getting the spread under better control than the US? Very little about this phenomenon seems to make sense,

  12. @Lot
    A problem with masks is you feel like a doofus being the only one wearing one, and also rude for freaking people out.

    I brought one to the store today, couldn’t being myself to put it on. 3 out of about 30 had masks on, 2/5 employees and 1/25 customers.

    Make it compulsory and these issues disappear.

    Traffic was down substantially from late last week’s already low amount. 5:30pm on a weekday was like 5am on a Sunday.

    People have hoarded everything they need now and about half of restaurants that planned on staying open for takeout two weeks ago have given up and closed. The other half are nearly dead too.

    “Traffic was down substantially from late last week’s already low amount.”

    Lot, sideshow traffic is up, at least up in Oakland California. News report on the action from this last Sunday:

    In this video of the same “event”, the police, or perhaps someone in the crowd, fires off a few rounds amongst the chaos:

    • Replies: @J.Ross
    "Sideshow"? That's not a circus, it's one of those black things where they stunt-drive their custom cars, such as stopped traffic on San Francisco's less famous bridge several months back.
    , @George
    The end of the White Man's nation. They sent a gaggle of cops to break up a children's birthday party on private land, knowing they would only confront women and children, but can't seem to figure out what to do about a traffic intersection blocked off for an auto stunt show. Silly lockdown rules may it easy to find an empty intersection and an audience.

    As to the original question.

    Canada is probably much less densely populated.

    If you compare US and Canadian border communities you see a complete collapse as you cross from Canada into the US. Compare Ontario with Detroit. Why wouldn't you expect Canada to be doing better with Covid?

    IMO, The most significant predictor of death rate is serious preexisting conditions. Canadian healthcare is probably better at controlling health issues early so they don't become serious. FWIW, the US average age is lower than Canada.

    So far Covid has been a scam and enormous power grab. The statistics are hard to pin down. Since only one category of death is reported, finding a source of historical mortality data is hard to find. On planet earth there have been a total of 40,000 Covid deaths, which means Covid is not a significant cause of death. Canada might, very reasonably, be characterizing pneumonia deaths as generic unless there is an abundance of proof that Covid was the only cause, I do not know. I have to admit the possible growth rate, assuming it is not statistical gamesmanship, is troubling. But even the growth rate could due to how deaths from old age are attributed to Covid.
  13. I recall quite a bit of speculation that the optimal zone for corona spread was temperatures averaging around 10 C/50 F, with dry air. That description roughly fit places such as Wuhan, Tehran, and Lombardy back in February, but that zone is of course moving north now. New York would have been in the zone in March, for example.

    Unfortunately, there are warmer places where the virus seems to be spreading quickly, e.g. New Orleans.

  14. @Dieter Kief

    A problem with masks is you feel like a doofus being the only one wearing one, and also rude for freaking people out.

     

    Soemhow a solution for this problem:

    The German city Jena has just declared masks obligatory in public.

    The German city Jena has just declared masks obligatory in public.

    Not the first time they’ve done that in Jena, we can be pretty sure.

    • Replies: @Dieter Kief
    The Jena Max-Planck-Institute found the origin of the Bubonic Plague - it turned out that the genome is 4800+ years old, which means much older than previously known:

    https://www.nature.com/articles/s41467-018-04550-9
    , @Kolya Krassotkin
    To the contrary, that's Doctor Schnabel from Rome, from a 17th century print by Peter Fürst.

    (Aren't some Italians reputed to have rather large beaks?)
  15. @Lot
    A problem with masks is you feel like a doofus being the only one wearing one, and also rude for freaking people out.

    I brought one to the store today, couldn’t being myself to put it on. 3 out of about 30 had masks on, 2/5 employees and 1/25 customers.

    Make it compulsory and these issues disappear.

    Traffic was down substantially from late last week’s already low amount. 5:30pm on a weekday was like 5am on a Sunday.

    People have hoarded everything they need now and about half of restaurants that planned on staying open for takeout two weeks ago have given up and closed. The other half are nearly dead too.

    You need to grow a thicker skin.

    Times like these, nobody looks askance at a guy wearing a surgical mask or N95 respirator. And, even if they did, who gives a damn?

    • Agree: Servant of Gla'aki
    • Replies: @Je Suis Omar Mateen
    "Times like these, nobody looks askance at a guy wearing a surgical mask or N95 respirator [sic]."

    I laugh in your general direction every time. I also laugh when people give me a ten-foot berth as we pass.

    CoronaHoax is unmasking [pun] all the bedwetting ninnies among us.
  16. 1 of my cousin’s in laws died in Greater NOLA. From what my cousin told me he was mid 50s, worked out etc. I don’t get it either.

    Considering free market types like to scream murder at Canada’s health care system they seem to be doing a better job at containing this garbage than the incompetents and cluster fu–s running our health care system.

    As can be seen: de regulation and free market incentives DON’T WORK AS PLANNED.

    I also beg to differ with Dr. Dan Hessen but like the Drudge headline had the other day Louisiana had the fastest growth rate “on planet Earth” THIS WEEK…..

    Its so stinking humid here i call it “Satan’s Crotch”…..the weather is also weird this year….normally its cold as hell right now and pouring rain….instead ita VERY HUMID but NOT raining(hasnt rained significantly in a month) so i dunno if that has anything to do w it….but if humidity is a mitigation factor in the spread of covid19…..you sure as hell could have fooled me down here in “ground zero”…..

    Something else though…..ive noticed Doordash & delivery services are popular in other parts of the country…..NOT HERE….ppl are OBSESSED w their vehicles here. White folks, blacks, doesn’t matter….they love running the roads and put putting around….im weird, i hate cars and hate going out….

    If you think L.A. or Houston has a car culture come to Greater NOLA. People use mass transit in the city but elsewhere NOBODY DOES….a common phrase here is “gotta have wheels” and “i love my car”

    • Replies: @DanHessinMD
    Neoconned -- You had a million people crowded onto the streets of New Orleans in *February* for Mardi Gras culminating in a big city-wide mosh pit on Feb. 25th. That is believed to be the origin of Coronavirus there.

    The relevant weather for New Orleans is the weather in February culminating on Feb. 25th (fat Tuesday), because that is Mardi Gras time there. Plenty of highs in the fifties and lows and the forties at that time if you look at the monthly weather in New Orleans.

    I admit I am surprised that New Orleans has had it as bad as they have. It appears that large crowds outdoors in chilly weather is phenomenally bad and this was the thing in the Big Easy all of January and February. Still Louisiana has 20x few cases than New York which is surely significant.

    Mexico has had very few cases, and the many tropical countries have done well, so warmth and humidity still seems very helpful.

    But it may be that the temperature and humidity points for protection may be higher than I thought. Also helpful is not the same as being a cure. Humidity and higher temperatures are surely helpful in terms of reducing tranmission and aiding the respiratory immune system, but they are not a cure by themselves.

    , @ben tillman

    Considering free market types like to scream murder at Canada’s health care system they seem to be doing a better job at containing this garbage than the incompetents and cluster fu–s running our health care system.
     
    Where do you get the idea that Canada's healthcare system has anything to do with New Orleans' popularity with tourists in mid-to-late February? Or with anything else relevant to "containing this garbage"?
    , @Federalist

    ...the weather is also weird this year….normally its cold as hell right now and pouring rain…
     
    You're saying that it's normally "cold as hell" in New Orleans in late March?
    , @Servant of Gla'aki

    Considering free market types like to scream murder at Canada’s health care system they seem to be doing a better job at containing this garbage than the incompetents and cluster fu–s running our health care system.
     
    It doesn't seem like the quality/character of the healthcare system of any given national society, would have very much to do with whether one contracts the Kung Flu.
  17. @Lot
    A problem with masks is you feel like a doofus being the only one wearing one, and also rude for freaking people out.

    I brought one to the store today, couldn’t being myself to put it on. 3 out of about 30 had masks on, 2/5 employees and 1/25 customers.

    Make it compulsory and these issues disappear.

    Traffic was down substantially from late last week’s already low amount. 5:30pm on a weekday was like 5am on a Sunday.

    People have hoarded everything they need now and about half of restaurants that planned on staying open for takeout two weeks ago have given up and closed. The other half are nearly dead too.

    I’ve worn my N95 to the post office and grocery store and found that it produces a rather hostile response in some even though I’m just going about my business. (For what it’s worth this doesn’t happen when I go out without a mask as I have for all the years before now). I think that some assume that I’m sick and that’s why I have the mask on. Or maybe they are more attuned to the belief that mask wearing is a threat associated with robbers. Maybe it’s just a reminder that there’s a weird and pervasive threat in our midst now. I live in a very conservative area and maybe some view wearing a mask as a repudiation of Trump’s competence to keep us all safe or as giving in to fake news exaggerations designed to make Trump look bad. Probably it differs depending on the individual– they’ve been both black and white. Most people don’t mind and some seem to approve of it as a form of social responsibility (which is exactly what it is), but there are a few who don’t like it.

    I will continue to wear it when I have to go into a business with other people, but not when I ride my bike around town for exercise. Masks make sense sometimes even if other people don’t.

    • Replies: @AnonAnon
    Perhaps people are hostile because you were able to get a mask while the rest of us can’t. It’s also rather annoying that American culture really doesn’t like masks and now we’re going to be forced into wearing them, not by government edict but to avoid getting sick. It’s getting harder to keep the anger at bay at the turn life is taking on all fronts.

    I saw the most people I’ve ever seen in masks and gloves when I dropped off a package at the post office today. This was in SoCal.
    , @Federalist
    Some see mask wearing as further feeding into the panic of a feminized society that is leading to massive unemployment and destroying small businesses. (Big business, as always, will be fine.)
    , @J.Ross
    I found some ancient N95's in a drawer (I had bought them 4chan meme cycles ago, when the designator meant nothing and the masks were widely available; they were intended for some home improvement project and I had forgotten all about them). I immediately turned them over to a blood relative who works in a hospital.
    , @Polynikes
    My guess is that people still associate it with you being sick, instead of a preventative measure.

    Trump mentioned wearing masks yesterday. Unfortunately, if he promotes it the media will drone on about how he is wrong. The CDC should be taking the lead, but they’ve been woefully incompetent through much of this ordeal.
    , @HA
    "I’ve worn my N95 to the post office and grocery store and found that it produces a rather hostile response"

    In that case, you need to double down and go full cosplay:

    https://www.pinterest.com/pin/516084438532915484/

    What if it's not the mask? Like, maybe you're holding your bazooka incorrectly? That'll get you some disapproving glances for sure. No one likes a newb.
    , @Oscar Peterson

    "I’ve worn my N95 to the post office and grocery store and found that it produces a rather hostile response in some even though I’m just going about my business."
     
    What is the specific nature of the hostile responses have you received?
    , @JimB

    I’ve worn my N95 to the post office and grocery store and found that it produces a rather hostile response in some even though I’m just going about my business.
     
    Draw a smile on it.
    , @Chrisnonymous
    I offered to send my brother N95s, but he won't wear a mask at work because of the request to save them for health care workers. He calls it "solidarity"; I call it virtue signalling. But that could be why you're getting stares.
  18. @danand

    "Traffic was down substantially from late last week’s already low amount."
     
    Lot, sideshow traffic is up, at least up in Oakland California. News report on the action from this last Sunday:

    https://youtu.be/pdqYLZmfrtI



    In this video of the same "event", the police, or perhaps someone in the crowd, fires off a few rounds amongst the chaos:

    https://youtu.be/OfU2FKfcGeg?t=128

    “Sideshow”? That’s not a circus, it’s one of those black things where they stunt-drive their custom cars, such as stopped traffic on San Francisco’s less famous bridge several months back.

  19. My theories:

    1 – For all we know Canada is coding deaths to hide coronavirus victims.

    2 – Canada doesn’t get as many incoming travelers as the US nor does their population travel the globe as much as people in the US do so they had less opportunity to get the super spreaders that seem to be doing so much damage here. Do they even jet around their own country that much? They seem to like to head to Cuba or Mexico for cheap warm weather vacations. Globe trotting for work seems to be a big part of modern corporate America and I don’t get the sense Canadians travel for business nearly the same extent we do.

    There is a great website called Nextstrain.org that has animations of the virus spreading the globe. So far it doesn’t show that much activity in Canada but it’s only as good as the data it’s received from the various countries.

    3- Canada is behind the US and will hit its peak later.

    • Agree: Muggles
    • Disagree: The Wild Geese Howard
    • Replies: @utu
    "Canada doesn’t get as many incoming travelers as the US nor does their population travel the globe as much as people in the US do so they had less opportunity to get the super spreaders that seem to be doing so much damage here."

    60 per cent of Canadians have passports and 42 percent of Americans hold a passport.

    21 million tourists visited Canada in 2018 (0.56 tourist per one Canadian)
    76.9 million people visited the United States in 2017 (0.24 tourist per one American)

    21.9% of the Canadian population are foreign-born
    13.6% of the U.S. population are foreign-born

    What might be unique about the American Empire is that its provinces are less provincial than its center perhaps because Americans are as much the conquered subjects of the Empire as are the subjects in the conquered provinces.
    , @The Wild Geese Howard

    1 – For all we know Canada is coding deaths to hide coronavirus victims.
     
    I don't think that is very likely.

    Meanwhile, in the US, you have Corona victim guidance like this being issued:

    https://www.health.ny.gov/vital_records/edrs/docs/guidance_for_certifying_covid-19_deaths.pdf


    It is important to emphasize that Coronavirus Disease 2019or COVID-19 should be reported on the death certificate for all decedents where the disease caused or is assumed to have caused or contributed to death.
    , @Matra
    Canada doesn’t get as many incoming travelers as the US

    True. Though the travellers it does get tend to be more concentrated in a few Canadian cities than would be the case with those visiting the US.

    nor does their population travel the globe as much as people in the US do so they had less opportunity to get the super spreaders that seem to be doing so much damage here.

    Canadians are far more likely to travel internationally than Americans. Something like 60% of all trips are outside of Canada - it's absurdly expensive travelling within Canada by plane - with over two thirds of Canadians having valid passports. Almost all the early cases of the virus in Ontario involved people who had just returned from the US, Iran, Italy, or China or their close relatives.

    , @Buffalo Joe
    Anon, Canadians travel extensively in the winter, as Fort Erie, Ontario, across the Peace Bridge from Buffalo, is about as far south as you can go in Canada. You are correct about visitors at this time of year to Canada, except for the great skiing in the Canadian Rockies. So watch for results from there. Ontarians border cross to ski locally in Ellicotville, NY. Snow birds love our southern states and golf courses and there are travel wholesalers in Toronto featuring non stops to all of the Caribbean, including Cuba.
    , @Mr. Anon

    1 – For all we know Canada is coding deaths to hide coronavirus victims.
     
    How do we know that the U.S. isn't coding deaths to inflate the number of coronavirus victims?
    , @Kratoklastes

    For all we know Canada is coding deaths to hide coronavirus victims
     
    Nobody's got any incentive to downplay deaths: they are all coding on the 'with' side of 'of/with', albeit less systematically than the Italians.

    If they don't, it will become clear that this is a less-lethal contagion than 2009 H1N1. On an 'apples to apples' comparison, H1N1 was worse at this stage, when the cost measure is properly defined ('loss of quality-adjusted years of life').

    If the cost for covid19 excludes 'died-with', H1N1pdm09 wins by a gigantic margin, because somewhere around 90% of covid19 deaths are 'died-with', not 'died-from' - whereas all of H1N1pdm09's deaths were died-from.

    If that happens, suddenly all the clampdowns make no sense: society survived 2009 without deliberately generating economic conditions that will, if maintained for more than a month[1], rival the Great Depression.

    This is all of a piece with the types of data being presented to the schlubs:
    • 'confirmed cases' - sub-acute and asymps (who don't show up at hostpitals) aren't counted;
    • 'new confirmed cases' implies that a positive test today was contracted today;
    • 'died with': RBIs being counted as home runs;
    • CFR ('died-with'/'confirmed cases'): that's RBIs/hits as opposed to HRs/at-bats (when HRs/pitches would be a better metric).

    This makes everything look much much worse than it is.

    FWIW they missed a trick: if they used 'died-with'/'resolved cases', they would get even bigger numbers (8% for Canada; 37% for the US).

    You read that right: of the 'confirmed cases' considered 'complete' in the US, 37% have died.

    If the media tried to run that scam, even Yanks would notice that such a number is preposterous and indicative of deliberate bias and panic-mongering.

    It's absolutely clear that the 'less-extreme' panic-mongering is deliberate.

    It's crafted for the fuckwits who watch morning TV ('The View' being pretty representative). If you're a person who can't do sums, the numbers you hear (and the way they're phrased) encourages belief that the numbers 'justify' all proposed interference in the economy.

    This is because the 'talent' on The View is as innumerate (and as prone to hysteria) as their audience: it is easy for them to ignore things they can't compute.


    [1] There is a risk that the global economy is already doomed to economic conditions worse than the Great Depression.

    There is a very high probability that there will be some 'potline'-type problems when restrictions are removed. Significant parts of global production chains might have characteristics like aluminium smelters - where a one-day interruption in power to the potline causes a 'freeze' that takes a month to fix and costs ~3 months production (one lost from emptying the potline; one foregone by downtime; one lost due to costs of remediation).
  20. Maybe Canada has an uptick in “influenza” deaths?

  21. @Lockean Proviso
    I've worn my N95 to the post office and grocery store and found that it produces a rather hostile response in some even though I'm just going about my business. (For what it's worth this doesn't happen when I go out without a mask as I have for all the years before now). I think that some assume that I'm sick and that's why I have the mask on. Or maybe they are more attuned to the belief that mask wearing is a threat associated with robbers. Maybe it's just a reminder that there's a weird and pervasive threat in our midst now. I live in a very conservative area and maybe some view wearing a mask as a repudiation of Trump's competence to keep us all safe or as giving in to fake news exaggerations designed to make Trump look bad. Probably it differs depending on the individual– they've been both black and white. Most people don't mind and some seem to approve of it as a form of social responsibility (which is exactly what it is), but there are a few who don't like it.

    I will continue to wear it when I have to go into a business with other people, but not when I ride my bike around town for exercise. Masks make sense sometimes even if other people don't.

    Perhaps people are hostile because you were able to get a mask while the rest of us can’t. It’s also rather annoying that American culture really doesn’t like masks and now we’re going to be forced into wearing them, not by government edict but to avoid getting sick. It’s getting harder to keep the anger at bay at the turn life is taking on all fronts.

    I saw the most people I’ve ever seen in masks and gloves when I dropped off a package at the post office today. This was in SoCal.

    • Agree: YetAnotherAnon
  22. I would imagine that the chief difference between Canada and the USA is that their Medical Community is less riven with Incompetence and outright fraud than the USA. Or alternately, that they just spend more time outside – also true of Californians vs. New Yorkers.

    In the meantime:

    https://www.anti-empire.com/german-infectologist-decimates-covid-doomsday-cult-in-open-letter-to-merkel/

    https://www.lewrockwell.com/2020/03/no_author/americans-will-have-to-cure-the-coronavirus-epidemic-on-their-own/

    https://www.thegatewaypundit.com/2020/03/cbs-news-caught-using-footage-from-an-italian-hospital-to-describe-conditions-in-new-york-city-video/

    https://www.lewrockwell.com/2020/03/jon-rappoport/corona-the-case-number-game/

    https://techstartups.com/2020/03/28/dr-vladimir-zelenko-now-treated-699-coronavirus-patients-100-success-using-hydroxychloroquine-sulfate-zinc-z-pak-update/

    https://www.dailymail.co.uk/debate/article-8163587/PETER-HITCHENS-Great-Panic-foolish-freedom-broken-economy-crippled.html

    I could link a hundred more articles, but seriously, would you read them?

    The Corona virus “pandemic” is a fraud. It is being used to deliberately drive a totalitarian agenda. And those of you falling for it are complete and utter fools. This will be known today, tomorrow, and for the rest of human history.

    • Replies: @Anon

    The Corona virus “pandemic” is a fraud. It is being used to deliberately drive a totalitarian agenda. And those of you falling for it are complete and utter fools.
     
    I held this position also initially as well but was then convinced by smart and knowledgeable people that there was something to it that I just don’t understand. All these hospitals putting up emergency tents, navy hospital ships sent to NYC and LA, shutdown of the economy, all the doctors with dire predictions, etc. Not to mention Sailer, Karlin, Unz, Taleb, et al., going all 5-alarm fire in this thing (Unz saying a local CA health commissioner is responsible for saving a million lives! Wut??).

    But I’m just not seeing the numbers of deaths so far and this CV seems ridiculously minor compared to the flu. The vast majority of people recover from it.

    Meanwhile we have projections that unemployment levels will exceed those of the Great Depression. Many industries gone for good. Many small businesses are never coming back.

    Now I’m left wondering if it’s not just some other giant coordinated operation to offset some coming economic and social collapse. I’m usually the last to learn of some inside information and the last to figure it out on my own. I’m half expecting in 6 months to be told by someone:

    “Well, it’s good we undertook that plan to shutdown the economy to save it.”

    “What do you mean? We shut it down because of the COVID-19.”

    “Is that what you think? Hahaha. Come on, everyone knows we were headed towards complete meltdown of the dollar and had to take drastic action to prevent this.”

    “But why were we told to stay inside for months?”

    “Come on, don’t play stupid, you know why. They had to shut everything down to avoid a run on banks. They used that ‘pandemic’ to avoid widespread panic and social collapse.”

    “Oh.”

    , @HA
    "The Corona virus “pandemic” is a fraud. It is being used to deliberately drive a totalitarian agenda."

    If that's true, it's happening most notably in areas like Spain and Italy and NYC that were all about ignoring the virus and not being afraid of "unfounded rumors" and claiming coronavirus was a nothingburger, which then allowed the virus to spread to the point where they decided it was time to change gears and go into lockdown. (I mean, how much of an excuse do the mullahs of Iran need to get more totalitarian?)

    How do we know that your similar cries of fraud are not part of that same conspiracy that only leads to harsher measures later on? Why are ordinarily bright people unable to even read a basic graph without screwing up, or else are reduced to spouting idiotic beliefs that viruses must evolve into less virulent forms by way of some heretofore unknown biological imperative (I guess rabies must have not gotten that memo), now some the key voices in telling us that this is all a big fraud?

    In general, it seems that if the people in charge had taken this MORE seriously earlier on (in particular, the Communist apparatchiks of Wuhan) we could all be taking it far less seriously now. Isn't there a lesson there?

    , @Muggles
    >> would imagine that the chief difference between Canada and the USA is that their Medical Community is less riven with Incompetence and outright fraud than the USA. Or alternately, that they just spend more time outside – also true of Californians vs. New Yorkers.<<

    Yes, you "imagine" a lot of things, I'd wager. After all we all know the best physicians in the world all flock to Canada for their professional careers. And that's why Americans eagerly line up at the border to get their specialty medical care there. Since after all, there are no malpractice laws there for doctors, so naturally that means there is no medical malpractice. Right?

    What makes you think Canadians are spending time outdoors in March? Have you ever been to Canada in March? The southernmost tip of Canada is somewhat north of Detroit. People are sunbathing there now, right? Both Cali and NY are hotbeds of this virus. California in March isn't very warm, the Pacific is icy until mid summer, people don't walk anywhere either. But in your imagination it is always Baywatch and babes. Ah, no wonder you are so happy now.

    Of course you are one of the COVID-19 "hoaxers" so that figures. Better get to your evangelical tent revival meeting now, so they can lay on hands to bless you. Jesus always loved crowds and curing the sick. You could be one of those!

    , @Brian Reilly
    Mr. Mann, You are correct in your assertion that the Coronavirus® panic and government response is a fraud. I am not so sure that all the duped are complete and utter fools, however. It seems to me that the propaganda, or psy-ops, scam (or whatever the right term is) has been going on for so long that otherwise intelligent people are completely conditioned. They have grown so used to wearing blinders that they not only don't notice the blinders, they resent that you do notice them.

    We are in for a real screwing here. A lot of the Isteve and Unz readers are going to be damned surprised when they realize (too late) how badly they have been fooled, and for how long.
    , @The Wild Geese Howard

    The Corona virus “pandemic” is a fraud. It is being used to deliberately drive a totalitarian agenda.
     
    I would simply add that it's also being used as cover to reset equity pricing and permit Big Finance to safely engage in another 5 to 10 years of financial shenanigans.

    I am sure many of the market makers were well positioned for the recent downturn. They made billions on put options and stock shorts that they will use to buy up distressed assets for pennies on the dollar.

    The best part about using the virus for cover is that the downturn can be entirely blamed on the virus. This precludes the formation of any movements like Occupy Wall Street, which formed in the wake of the 2008-09 financial crisis. Just like 9/11, "...no one could have imagined."

    Indeed.
    , @anon
    Will you continue to believe in that if you become hospitalized and they tell you you have the virus? Or will you refuse to be treated for the fraudulent ailment?
  23. @Mr. Anon

    What is Canada doing right?
     
    Less air pollution and fewer quasi-third-world hygiene conditions?

    With the exception of the western suburbs of Detroit, isn’t the pattern in a 200 mile band south of the US-CAN border similar to what’s happening inside Canada? Probably Seattle, Buffalo, Burlington, Cleveland & Duluth have similar age and activity profiles (lot of “snowbirds” who spend the winter in the southeast, and live in suburbs). Expect that the relative scarcity of jet set Plutocrats in Canada may have redounded to their benefit at this point. There were a lot of Asian SARS patients in Canada in 2003 – perhaps they gained some cross-over immunity or have adopted the habit of wearing masks.

    • Replies: @Reg Cæsar

    Expect that the relative scarcity of jet set Plutocrats in Canada...
     
    They're in Monaco with the European "jet-set Plutocrats" where, unlike Americans, they don't have to pay the taxman back home.
  24. @PiltdownMan

    The German city Jena has just declared masks obligatory in public.

     

    Not the first time they've done that in Jena, we can be pretty sure.

    https://i.pinimg.com/originals/e6/c4/25/e6c425ed0b4c945a73c31e81db76eff0.jpg

    The Jena Max-Planck-Institute found the origin of the Bubonic Plague – it turned out that the genome is 4800+ years old, which means much older than previously known:

    https://www.nature.com/articles/s41467-018-04550-9

  25. Aren’t there a lot of Chinese and mild weather on Canada’s west coast (Vancouver area)?

    • Agree: AKAHorace
    • Replies: @windjammer
    I live on the west coast of Canada. We got hit by 3 strains in feb/march - first Chinese, then Iranian, then southern European. Contact tracing of the first few spreaders, then just mandatory quarantine for all travelers. The largest percentage of fatalities is still in long term care facilities for the elderly, which shows they really aren't set up like hospitals for sanitation and equipment.

    Medical assistance and a hospital stay is essentially free, doctors nurses and Provincial Health Officers are competent. They still remember the SARS outbreak, and sprung into action early, knowing what was needed. The messaging from government has none of the partisan hogwash we see in the states, we're all in this together and have been since it started leaking out of Wuhan. There has been a lack of extensive testing. I've been sick with "the flu" most of March, but since the symptoms were so similar I had to pretend I had Cv19 anyway and self-isolate so my family was safe.

    The whole province of BC is fairly obedient about social distancing, all schools and unessential business now shut down. Painful for the economy. Rural areas and coastal islands have all put out the message in urban media to stay home, don't visit. All aboriginal villages are pretty much no-go zones now, with road blocks. They still remember the smallpox-infested Hudson Bay blankets of 1865 that almost wiped them all out. Americans who own Canadian property are being turned away at the border. Sorry, try later.

    Everyone who can is planting a garden, fishing, looking out for their neighbours. We'll do OK. There's not a lot of guns. There's worry, but not so much fear.
  26. Population density?

    Are Americans thicker?

    (on the ground, of course)

  27. Anon[285] • Disclaimer says:

    The pandemic’s extent really is the Chinese Communist Government’s fault.

    We can tell by the extra amount of funeral urns sent to the funeral homes in the province where Wuhan is, that some 40,000 extra deaths must have taken place. Fox had a story on their website about this.

    If they had come clean early on about how many were gravely ill and dying, the nations of the world would have had a much more aggressive response 2 or 3 weeks earlier, and thus the numbers would have been much smaller. Xi’s underlings may have not been entirely honest with him, so we cant put it all on Xi.

    China is owning up to just shy of 4,000 deaths, but by the amount of funeral urns for cremated ashes sent to the Wuhan area, its extrapolated that the real number of bodies is roughly 10 times that.

    • Replies: @Charon
    China's owning up to more than that, finally. But just a little bit. What psychologists call "trickle truth".

    China’s Coronavirus Count Excluded Infected People With No Symptoms

    China said for the first time that it excluded people who were infected with the novel coronavirus but haven’t shown symptoms from its national tally, as questions arise about its accounting of the infectious disease.

    https://www.wsj.com/articles/chinas-coronavirus-count-excluded-infected-people-with-no-symptoms-11585650226

     

    , @Neoconned
    Even then while I'm not a "Coronahoax" type they do have a point....even with that number.....40k deaths from a population of 1.3 billion....
    , @Grace Jones
    Urns in Wuhan far exceed death toll, raising more questions about China’s tally
    A single mortuary has had 5,000 urns delivered over the past two days, double the city's reported coronavirus death toll
    http://shanghaiist.com/2020/03/27/urns-in-wuhan-far-exceed-death-toll-raising-more-questions-about-chinas-tally/
    , @Kratoklastes
    That horse-shit story assumes that a city of 11.8 million only requires urns for covid19 victims.

    If it's a representative city in China, it will have ~1350 deaths a week from causes other than covid19.

    Add a few thousand spread over a few weeks, and 2000 seems about right.

    The ZH 'clickbait for fuckwits' story links to Shanghaiist, in which a photo shows urns inside a building.

    There are 200 urns per identifiable 'set' (5×5×8), and 8 sets: 1600. Right in line with what you would expect.

    https://www.dropbox.com/s/ovdz44up0p9yt25/WuhanUrns.png?dl=1

    The truck in the Shanghaiist story has far less than 25 pallets.

    https://www.dropbox.com/s/c2kczvvhm5wxo2p/WuhanTruck.png?dl=1

    (FWIW I did the dimension-count on the truck in a bit of a rush: it's more likely that the '8' dimension is oriented across the truck bed: this would give a 1 pallet-wide × 10 pallets on that flat-bed: 2000 urns - about what would be expected).

    For fuck's sake - can none of you people COUNT?

  28. @Mr McKenna

    What Is Canada Doing Right?
     
    Everything's "paid for" right? Since we cover illegal migrants I assume they do too? But they don't have anywhere near as many, for some reason. Better border controls? (NB: I'm not positing these as reasons.)

    Cigna to waive patient costs for COVID-19 treatment

    Health insurance giant Cigna is waiving patient costs related to COVID-19 treatment.

    Nearly all insurance plans are offering to cover the cost of testing but Cigna joins Aetna and Humana in guaranteeing policyholders are not liable for care related to the pandemic.
     

    Reminds me of how it's best if your un- or under-insured house is destroyed in a Federally-Declared Disaster--they you get the Free Money! If your place was wrecked by an event no one's heard of or cares about, that's on you.

    Cigna to waive patient costs for COVID-19 treatment

    I take that as a sign that they expect Corona to be a nothingburger when all is said and done.

    I’m encouraged.

    • Replies: @Charon
    Right, either that or they're certain they're going to be bailed out, or (quite possibly) both.
  29. CDN govt is tied to the hip with Chinese oligarchy so they’re playing the mask/ no mask game and parroting WHO like gospel.

    Airport screening is ridiculously lax despite assurances to the contrary. Prime Minister is in self isolation yet sees no need for testing. Media curiosity in holding pattern.

    If Canada recovers well it’ll be a remarkable fluke

    • Replies: @Brobert
    The federal government's response has been predictably awful, but most of the provinces took mesures to control the spread early. I would guess Canadians are more compliant than Americans when it comes to following directives from public officials, they're just more docile in general. The non white population being heavily asian rather than black+latino probably helps the compliance rate too.
  30. I can’t speak for all of Canada, but Vancouver was careful early on. There are a lot of HK Chinese in Vancouver, and they took this seriously from the beginning. My oldest son goes to high school in Delta (south of Vancouver), and his friend’s mom was put in quarantine in BC back in January after coming back from China, before cases started showing up here in Washington state. She wasn’t symptomatic, either, as far as I know. I don’t think any Chinese were being quarantined in the US at that point. Frankly, we should have followed Taiwan’s lead on that and started caging them like pangolins in a wet market on January 1st. Nowadays Chinese are locking up Americans and making them pay $1,500 for the privilege.

    The Canadians were also kind of lucky. There were plenty of careless Canadian tourists going to California and Las Vegas as recently as a couple weeks ago, but neither of those places flared up as much as they could have.

    I don’t know about Toronto, but they probably had the same protections in place BC did because of the SARS fiasco back in 2003.

    Countries that got hit by SARS are doing way, way better than those that didn’t. It goes to show that it sometimes pays to learn a lesson.

    • Replies: @Cagey Beast
    I don’t know about Toronto, but they probably had the same protections in place BC did because of the SARS fiasco back in 2003.

    Yes, after the SARS epidemic, Canada put in acute care facilities built to handle another epidemic of its kind. My sister attended a conference for healthcare workers in Nova Scotia about a month ago and they were talking about how several of these facilities were being taken out of mothballs as they spoke. Apparently, the hospital administrators at the conference said they used to think these special, locked-off quarantine beds (that were mandated post-SARS) felt like overkill but were glad they had them now.
    , @Another Canadian
    Same in Toronto. We were talking about this new virus back when the U.S. was only paying attention to impeaching Trump. Chinese-Canadians in Ontario were enforcing a 14-day quarantine on people coming from China in early January. This was an informal process of picking up the Chinese traveler at Pearson Airport and escorting him to quarantine and following up daily with whatever he needed. I think this informal early intervention by the Chinese community in Canada made a difference in keeping the coronavirus from getting started as quickly as in the U.S.

    That's history. It looks like both the U.S. and Canada are now on the curve of deaths doubling every three days, it's just that Canada is lagging behind the U.S.
    , @Jilla
    As of a couple of days ago, people were still required to go to work in Vancouver.
  31. Check out the Toronto papers. The Globe and Mail, The Toronto Star and the Toronto Sun web sites. Things are not going well at all.

    • Replies: @Barnard
    Toronto is close to the same latitude as Florence, Italy. It is barely north of Boston. I don't the theories on weather differences either slowing or increasing the spread are holding up well.
  32. My guess is that Canadians are less hesitant to get tested for Covid-19 because they’re not risking a huge medical bill by doing so.

    Anyway, here’s the official Canadian site: https://www.canada.ca/en/public-health/services/diseases/2019-novel-coronavirus-infection.html

    • Replies: @Art Deco
    What does that have to do with why Canada has fewer deaths?
    , @Hernan Pizzaro del Blanco
    90% of Americans have health insurance, so I doubt cost of care is the reason more Americans have been infected.....Testing is free in most states, and poor people get free medical care via Medicaid while everyone over 65 gets Medicare , as do the 15 million disabled Americans under the age of 65.
    , @The Dude
    Getting tested is virtually impossible. Only people with symptoms who've travelled within 14 days are allowed to be tested.
  33. @Bill P
    I can't speak for all of Canada, but Vancouver was careful early on. There are a lot of HK Chinese in Vancouver, and they took this seriously from the beginning. My oldest son goes to high school in Delta (south of Vancouver), and his friend's mom was put in quarantine in BC back in January after coming back from China, before cases started showing up here in Washington state. She wasn't symptomatic, either, as far as I know. I don't think any Chinese were being quarantined in the US at that point. Frankly, we should have followed Taiwan's lead on that and started caging them like pangolins in a wet market on January 1st. Nowadays Chinese are locking up Americans and making them pay $1,500 for the privilege.

    The Canadians were also kind of lucky. There were plenty of careless Canadian tourists going to California and Las Vegas as recently as a couple weeks ago, but neither of those places flared up as much as they could have.

    I don't know about Toronto, but they probably had the same protections in place BC did because of the SARS fiasco back in 2003.

    Countries that got hit by SARS are doing way, way better than those that didn't. It goes to show that it sometimes pays to learn a lesson.

    I don’t know about Toronto, but they probably had the same protections in place BC did because of the SARS fiasco back in 2003.

    Yes, after the SARS epidemic, Canada put in acute care facilities built to handle another epidemic of its kind. My sister attended a conference for healthcare workers in Nova Scotia about a month ago and they were talking about how several of these facilities were being taken out of mothballs as they spoke. Apparently, the hospital administrators at the conference said they used to think these special, locked-off quarantine beds (that were mandated post-SARS) felt like overkill but were glad they had them now.

  34. Is Sweden going to hold up that well in the long run?

  35. First randomized trials for Hydroxychloroquine trickling in. Read the entire Twitter thread, not just the opening tweet.

  36. @International Jew

    Cigna to waive patient costs for COVID-19 treatment
     
    I take that as a sign that they expect Corona to be a nothingburger when all is said and done.

    I'm encouraged.

    Right, either that or they’re certain they’re going to be bailed out, or (quite possibly) both.

  37. They may have learned a thing or two during the SARS outbreak in Toronto in 2003 about how to see to it that your hospital network is not a source of infection.

    The four hot spots in the U.S. have been around New Orleans, Burlington (Vt), New York, Seattle, and Detroit. All over the map in terms of urban dimensions and climate. The majority of Burlington’s cases, and about 17% of Seattle’s, consisted of a deadly outbreak at a single nursing home. There were no new deaths in Vermont yesterday and Washington state’s portion of yesterday’s death toll was below the national mean, so it would appear that Burlington and Seattle are no longer hot spots in context.

    • Replies: @Ron Mexico
    "The four hot spots in the U.S. have been around New Orleans, Burlington (Vt), New York, Seattle, and Detroit." That would be 5, but, in agreement, what are the similarities between the 5?
  38. Anon[369] • Disclaimer says:
    @theMann
    I would imagine that the chief difference between Canada and the USA is that their Medical Community is less riven with Incompetence and outright fraud than the USA. Or alternately, that they just spend more time outside - also true of Californians vs. New Yorkers.

    In the meantime:

    https://www.anti-empire.com/german-infectologist-decimates-covid-doomsday-cult-in-open-letter-to-merkel/

    https://www.lewrockwell.com/2020/03/no_author/americans-will-have-to-cure-the-coronavirus-epidemic-on-their-own/

    https://www.thegatewaypundit.com/2020/03/cbs-news-caught-using-footage-from-an-italian-hospital-to-describe-conditions-in-new-york-city-video/

    https://www.lewrockwell.com/2020/03/jon-rappoport/corona-the-case-number-game/

    https://techstartups.com/2020/03/28/dr-vladimir-zelenko-now-treated-699-coronavirus-patients-100-success-using-hydroxychloroquine-sulfate-zinc-z-pak-update/

    https://www.dailymail.co.uk/debate/article-8163587/PETER-HITCHENS-Great-Panic-foolish-freedom-broken-economy-crippled.html

    https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=ZEr4rmjwd0g

    I could link a hundred more articles, but seriously, would you read them?


    The Corona virus "pandemic" is a fraud. It is being used to deliberately drive a totalitarian agenda. And those of you falling for it are complete and utter fools. This will be known today, tomorrow, and for the rest of human history.

    The Corona virus “pandemic” is a fraud. It is being used to deliberately drive a totalitarian agenda. And those of you falling for it are complete and utter fools.

    I held this position also initially as well but was then convinced by smart and knowledgeable people that there was something to it that I just don’t understand. All these hospitals putting up emergency tents, navy hospital ships sent to NYC and LA, shutdown of the economy, all the doctors with dire predictions, etc. Not to mention Sailer, Karlin, Unz, Taleb, et al., going all 5-alarm fire in this thing (Unz saying a local CA health commissioner is responsible for saving a million lives! Wut??).

    But I’m just not seeing the numbers of deaths so far and this CV seems ridiculously minor compared to the flu. The vast majority of people recover from it.

    Meanwhile we have projections that unemployment levels will exceed those of the Great Depression. Many industries gone for good. Many small businesses are never coming back.

    Now I’m left wondering if it’s not just some other giant coordinated operation to offset some coming economic and social collapse. I’m usually the last to learn of some inside information and the last to figure it out on my own. I’m half expecting in 6 months to be told by someone:

    “Well, it’s good we undertook that plan to shutdown the economy to save it.”

    “What do you mean? We shut it down because of the COVID-19.”

    “Is that what you think? Hahaha. Come on, everyone knows we were headed towards complete meltdown of the dollar and had to take drastic action to prevent this.”

    “But why were we told to stay inside for months?”

    “Come on, don’t play stupid, you know why. They had to shut everything down to avoid a run on banks. They used that ‘pandemic’ to avoid widespread panic and social collapse.”

    “Oh.”

    • Replies: @theMann
    Let me add to your comments as an Economist:

    Cost/Benefit analysis is a common methodology to apply to anything involving use of money. It is usually (mis) used to overstate benefits, while underestimating costs, of major spending events, everything from stadium construction to mass transit. With coronascam, we have an interesting reversal: the one benefit is wildly overstated, and its costs are ignored.


    The stated purpose of lockdowns is to slow the spread of infection, not even stop, just slow the rate of infection. This done so that hospitals don't get overwhelmed. Leaving aside for the moment that there are nowhere near as many infections or deaths as the SARS epidemic of 2010-11, is it really true that lockdowns slow the rate of transmission? Have they in Italy? Did South Korea, Japan, Formosa, Sweden, and Brazil have much worse rates of transmission that lockdown countries? Is a lockdown a quarantine when every grocery store, gas station, pharmacy, and government office has possibly infected people traveling through? Is there even a quantifiable benefit at all? And remember, this is the only benefit. Eat an orange, get some sun, go lie down , might be a better benefit, and a whole lot cheaper.

    Now lets consider the costs.
    1. An unknown, but huge number of unemployed people, of unknown duration, who can't pay bills, including medical bills. So when an long-term unemployed person has a kid die from Scarlet fever this Summer when he can't afford medical bills and delays taking the kid to the emergency room, is that a covid-19 death?
    2. The total wipeout of the tourism industry.
    3. The delay in Spring planting, disruptions in the supply chain, and so forth, causing a real increase in food prices.
    4. The systematic trashing of our Rights and Liberties. This particularly includes: The systematic, and deliberate, persecution of Religious Believers WHICH IS ABSOLUTELY BY DESIGN.
    5. The bankruptcies of untold numbers of businesses, which will be bought up for pennies on the dollar by deep pocket oligarchs.
    6. The massive corruption, and misallocation of resources, in the rich people bailout bill, sorry, fiscal stimulus bill.
    7. The unknown human costs of Police State tactics. My opinion, first Cop gets shot hassling somebody walking their dog, all hell will break loose.

    This is the essence of Coronascam. One very nebulous benefit, unending and massive costs.
  39. @danand

    "Traffic was down substantially from late last week’s already low amount."
     
    Lot, sideshow traffic is up, at least up in Oakland California. News report on the action from this last Sunday:

    https://youtu.be/pdqYLZmfrtI



    In this video of the same "event", the police, or perhaps someone in the crowd, fires off a few rounds amongst the chaos:

    https://youtu.be/OfU2FKfcGeg?t=128

    The end of the White Man’s nation. They sent a gaggle of cops to break up a children’s birthday party on private land, knowing they would only confront women and children, but can’t seem to figure out what to do about a traffic intersection blocked off for an auto stunt show. Silly lockdown rules may it easy to find an empty intersection and an audience.

    As to the original question.

    Canada is probably much less densely populated.

    If you compare US and Canadian border communities you see a complete collapse as you cross from Canada into the US. Compare Ontario with Detroit. Why wouldn’t you expect Canada to be doing better with Covid?

    IMO, The most significant predictor of death rate is serious preexisting conditions. Canadian healthcare is probably better at controlling health issues early so they don’t become serious. FWIW, the US average age is lower than Canada.

    So far Covid has been a scam and enormous power grab. The statistics are hard to pin down. Since only one category of death is reported, finding a source of historical mortality data is hard to find. On planet earth there have been a total of 40,000 Covid deaths, which means Covid is not a significant cause of death. Canada might, very reasonably, be characterizing pneumonia deaths as generic unless there is an abundance of proof that Covid was the only cause, I do not know. I have to admit the possible growth rate, assuming it is not statistical gamesmanship, is troubling. But even the growth rate could due to how deaths from old age are attributed to Covid.

    • Replies: @Art Deco
    IMO, The most significant predictor of death rate is serious preexisting conditions. Canadian healthcare is probably better at controlling health issues early so they don’t become serious. FWIW, the US average age is lower than Canada.

    It's worth nothing. Their total fertility rate is lower than that of the United States and has been persistently lower for a generation.

    No clue why you fancy 'Canadian health care' prevents diabetes, kidney disease and emphysema.
    , @donvonburg

    Canada is probably much less densely populated.
    If you compare US and Canadian border communities you see a complete collapse as you cross from Canada into the US. Compare Ontario with Detroit. Why wouldn’t you expect Canada to be doing better with Covid?
     
    Canada overall is much less densely populated, but its ecumene-that is, the habitable part, by normal human standards-is more populated than that of the United States.Most of the Continental US east of the Mississippi River and roughly half the land west of it are moderately to highly habitable: Canada's ecumene is almost entirely within 100 miles of the US border, and parts of that such as Manitoba and much of Saskatchewan and Alberta within that challenge the definition of "habitable" in winter. Canadian cold is brutal- Canadians consider the Dakotas and Wyoming to be moderate in winter, they aren't joking.

    And Canada has a lot more "New Canadians"-people from places where that kind of cold is unknown. Although there seemed to be a lot of subcons and Africans in part of Fargo I visited last year.

    Canadian health care is just not as good as that in the US in any regard, though the bigger cities do deal with emergencies reasonably well. It's not a terrible country by world standards, but given the choice for an outsider between going there or here it's hard to see in what circumstances Canada would have the advantage.
  40. @Lockean Proviso
    I've worn my N95 to the post office and grocery store and found that it produces a rather hostile response in some even though I'm just going about my business. (For what it's worth this doesn't happen when I go out without a mask as I have for all the years before now). I think that some assume that I'm sick and that's why I have the mask on. Or maybe they are more attuned to the belief that mask wearing is a threat associated with robbers. Maybe it's just a reminder that there's a weird and pervasive threat in our midst now. I live in a very conservative area and maybe some view wearing a mask as a repudiation of Trump's competence to keep us all safe or as giving in to fake news exaggerations designed to make Trump look bad. Probably it differs depending on the individual– they've been both black and white. Most people don't mind and some seem to approve of it as a form of social responsibility (which is exactly what it is), but there are a few who don't like it.

    I will continue to wear it when I have to go into a business with other people, but not when I ride my bike around town for exercise. Masks make sense sometimes even if other people don't.

    Some see mask wearing as further feeding into the panic of a feminized society that is leading to massive unemployment and destroying small businesses. (Big business, as always, will be fine.)

    • Replies: @Cagey Beast
    The stock market was itching to crash even without COVID-19.
  41. Same thing Alaska, Wyoming, Idaho, the Dakotas and Montana are doing right. Population density, weather, demographics.

    • Replies: @LoutishAngloQuebecker
    I see you haven't been to Vancouver, Calgary, Edmonton, Winnipeg, Toronto, GTA, or Montreal lately.
  42. @Lockean Proviso
    I've worn my N95 to the post office and grocery store and found that it produces a rather hostile response in some even though I'm just going about my business. (For what it's worth this doesn't happen when I go out without a mask as I have for all the years before now). I think that some assume that I'm sick and that's why I have the mask on. Or maybe they are more attuned to the belief that mask wearing is a threat associated with robbers. Maybe it's just a reminder that there's a weird and pervasive threat in our midst now. I live in a very conservative area and maybe some view wearing a mask as a repudiation of Trump's competence to keep us all safe or as giving in to fake news exaggerations designed to make Trump look bad. Probably it differs depending on the individual– they've been both black and white. Most people don't mind and some seem to approve of it as a form of social responsibility (which is exactly what it is), but there are a few who don't like it.

    I will continue to wear it when I have to go into a business with other people, but not when I ride my bike around town for exercise. Masks make sense sometimes even if other people don't.

    I found some ancient N95’s in a drawer (I had bought them 4chan meme cycles ago, when the designator meant nothing and the masks were widely available; they were intended for some home improvement project and I had forgotten all about them). I immediately turned them over to a blood relative who works in a hospital.

  43. It would be fair to compare the state of Maine (pop. 1,338,404) to the neighbouring Canadian provinces of New Brunswick (pop. 747,101) and Nova Scotia (pop. 977,457).

    – New Brunswick has 68 confirmed cases, 0 deaths
    – Nova Scotia has 127 confirmed cases, 0 deaths
    – Maine has 275 confirmed cases, 3 deaths

    • Replies: @Cagey Beast
    Newer figures:

    https://twitter.com/battisctv/status/1245072234374475781?s=20
  44. @Cagey Beast
    My guess is that Canadians are less hesitant to get tested for Covid-19 because they're not risking a huge medical bill by doing so.

    Anyway, here's the official Canadian site: https://www.canada.ca/en/public-health/services/diseases/2019-novel-coronavirus-infection.html

    What does that have to do with why Canada has fewer deaths?

    • Replies: @Cagey Beast
    If people are less hesitant to get tested early, they don't wait until they're very sick before going to their doctor or the hospital.
    , @Matra
    Early and widespread testing means early quarantining before carriers spread it to many other people. At least that's the speculation regarding Germany's low death rate thus far.
  45. @George
    The end of the White Man's nation. They sent a gaggle of cops to break up a children's birthday party on private land, knowing they would only confront women and children, but can't seem to figure out what to do about a traffic intersection blocked off for an auto stunt show. Silly lockdown rules may it easy to find an empty intersection and an audience.

    As to the original question.

    Canada is probably much less densely populated.

    If you compare US and Canadian border communities you see a complete collapse as you cross from Canada into the US. Compare Ontario with Detroit. Why wouldn't you expect Canada to be doing better with Covid?

    IMO, The most significant predictor of death rate is serious preexisting conditions. Canadian healthcare is probably better at controlling health issues early so they don't become serious. FWIW, the US average age is lower than Canada.

    So far Covid has been a scam and enormous power grab. The statistics are hard to pin down. Since only one category of death is reported, finding a source of historical mortality data is hard to find. On planet earth there have been a total of 40,000 Covid deaths, which means Covid is not a significant cause of death. Canada might, very reasonably, be characterizing pneumonia deaths as generic unless there is an abundance of proof that Covid was the only cause, I do not know. I have to admit the possible growth rate, assuming it is not statistical gamesmanship, is troubling. But even the growth rate could due to how deaths from old age are attributed to Covid.

    IMO, The most significant predictor of death rate is serious preexisting conditions. Canadian healthcare is probably better at controlling health issues early so they don’t become serious. FWIW, the US average age is lower than Canada.

    It’s worth nothing. Their total fertility rate is lower than that of the United States and has been persistently lower for a generation.

    No clue why you fancy ‘Canadian health care’ prevents diabetes, kidney disease and emphysema.

    • Replies: @Charon
    He said "Canadian healthcare is probably better at controlling health issues early" -- he didn't say that it prevented chronic diseases.

    Were you unable to read what he wrote? His argument was far more compelling than your irrelevant sniping.
    , @George
    "‘Canadian health care’ prevents diabetes, kidney disease and emphysema."

    Prevent? Maybe, maybe not. But access to primary healthcare means earlier detection and universal healthcare means more consistent treatment. Weren't US diabetics going to Canada to be insulin? Where are they getting insulin now?

    My speculation is that Canadians have fewer serious preexisting conditions because they get treatment before they are serious.
    , @dr kill
    That's for gddamn sure. Sure there s a good reason why well off Canadians jump the line and come here. Why don't you explain it to me?
  46. @Art Deco
    What does that have to do with why Canada has fewer deaths?

    If people are less hesitant to get tested early, they don’t wait until they’re very sick before going to their doctor or the hospital.

    • Replies: @Art Deco
    If people are less hesitant to get tested early, they don’t wait until they’re very sick before going to their doctor or the hospital.

    They should wait until they're very sick unless early intervention is correlated with survival.
  47. What is Canada doing right? Among many things, not putting up much of a fight to keep Meghan & Harry.

    • Replies: @Jim Don Bob
    DJT, to his credit, said that the US will not be paying for their security.
  48. @Bill P
    I can't speak for all of Canada, but Vancouver was careful early on. There are a lot of HK Chinese in Vancouver, and they took this seriously from the beginning. My oldest son goes to high school in Delta (south of Vancouver), and his friend's mom was put in quarantine in BC back in January after coming back from China, before cases started showing up here in Washington state. She wasn't symptomatic, either, as far as I know. I don't think any Chinese were being quarantined in the US at that point. Frankly, we should have followed Taiwan's lead on that and started caging them like pangolins in a wet market on January 1st. Nowadays Chinese are locking up Americans and making them pay $1,500 for the privilege.

    The Canadians were also kind of lucky. There were plenty of careless Canadian tourists going to California and Las Vegas as recently as a couple weeks ago, but neither of those places flared up as much as they could have.

    I don't know about Toronto, but they probably had the same protections in place BC did because of the SARS fiasco back in 2003.

    Countries that got hit by SARS are doing way, way better than those that didn't. It goes to show that it sometimes pays to learn a lesson.

    Same in Toronto. We were talking about this new virus back when the U.S. was only paying attention to impeaching Trump. Chinese-Canadians in Ontario were enforcing a 14-day quarantine on people coming from China in early January. This was an informal process of picking up the Chinese traveler at Pearson Airport and escorting him to quarantine and following up daily with whatever he needed. I think this informal early intervention by the Chinese community in Canada made a difference in keeping the coronavirus from getting started as quickly as in the U.S.

    That’s history. It looks like both the U.S. and Canada are now on the curve of deaths doubling every three days, it’s just that Canada is lagging behind the U.S.

    • Replies: @Art Deco
    It looks like both the U.S. and Canada are now on the curve of deaths doubling every three days,

    Canada had 29 deaths over March 25, 26, and 27 and then 34 deaths over March 28, 29, and 30. That's a 17% increase.

    The United States had 915 deaths over March 25, 26, and 27 and 1,479 over March 28, 29, and 30. That's a 62% increase.
  49. @Anon
    The pandemic's extent really is the Chinese Communist Government's fault.

    We can tell by the extra amount of funeral urns sent to the funeral homes in the province where Wuhan is, that some 40,000 extra deaths must have taken place. Fox had a story on their website about this.

    If they had come clean early on about how many were gravely ill and dying, the nations of the world would have had a much more aggressive response 2 or 3 weeks earlier, and thus the numbers would have been much smaller. Xi's underlings may have not been entirely honest with him, so we cant put it all on Xi.

    China is owning up to just shy of 4,000 deaths, but by the amount of funeral urns for cremated ashes sent to the Wuhan area, its extrapolated that the real number of bodies is roughly 10 times that.

    China’s owning up to more than that, finally. But just a little bit. What psychologists call “trickle truth”.

    China’s Coronavirus Count Excluded Infected People With No Symptoms

    China said for the first time that it excluded people who were infected with the novel coronavirus but haven’t shown symptoms from its national tally, as questions arise about its accounting of the infectious disease.

    https://www.wsj.com/articles/chinas-coronavirus-count-excluded-infected-people-with-no-symptoms-11585650226

    • Thanks: danand
    • Replies: @Federalist
    #CancelChina
  50. @Art Deco
    IMO, The most significant predictor of death rate is serious preexisting conditions. Canadian healthcare is probably better at controlling health issues early so they don’t become serious. FWIW, the US average age is lower than Canada.

    It's worth nothing. Their total fertility rate is lower than that of the United States and has been persistently lower for a generation.

    No clue why you fancy 'Canadian health care' prevents diabetes, kidney disease and emphysema.

    He said “Canadian healthcare is probably better at controlling health issues early” — he didn’t say that it prevented chronic diseases.

    Were you unable to read what he wrote? His argument was far more compelling than your irrelevant sniping.

    • Agree: Autochthon
  51. @Paleo Liberal
    There was one chart which showed that the places by that point to have been hit the hardest were all within a narrow temperature and humidity band — Wuhan, N Italy, New York, etc. The speculation was that as temperatures rose in the spring and summer, the virus would head north, and that Chicago and Detroit would soon be hard hit.

    OTOH, so were New Orleans and Madrid.

    So we can’t really be certain.

    Paleo Liberal —

    You are referring to this paper:
    Sajadi et al. (2020) Temperature and Latitude Analysis to Predict Potential Spread and Seasonality for COVID-19

    https://papers.ssrn.com/sol3/papers.cfm?abstract_id=3550308

    My sense is that the virus
    (1) does not thrive in high heat and humidity
    (2) is killed in outdoor areas when the temperature drops below freezing.

    Hence the sweet spot: As close to freezing as possible without going below freezing. This means colder climes have their peaks still ahead of them.

    • Replies: @Rob
    Are you Dan Hessin, MD or are you Dan Hess in Maryland. Not that a layman can’t have an informed, accurate opinion on medical issue, but I would take your (well researched) opinion more seriously if you are the former, though I’m sure that’s a logical fallacy.
    , @Paleo Liberal
    Thanks for the link. This is exactly what I was referring to.

    So yes, that does get me a bit worried. I am in southern Wisconsin. Chicago and Detroit are having some nasty outbreaks, spreading into Milwaukee and Madison now. The weather is getting into the sweet spot.
    , @HA
    "My sense is that the virus
    (1) does not thrive in high heat and humidity
    (2) is killed in outdoor areas when the temperature drops below freezing."

    Oh, so now it just "does not thrive" in high heat and humidity? That's your "sense"? Huh. That seems a lot more measured than some of your earlier wildly overblown claims, eh? I mean, weren't you previously assuring us that "In spring and summer, the virus won’t transmit. Yeah, baby!"

    What went wrong? Did you find time at some point to actually read some of those papers you were citing? Because from what I can see, the part about how the "virus won't transmit" is nothing but some ridiculous exaggeration that you yourself tacked on in an effort to fool anyone dumb enough to buy into your hype.

    Again, for those who continue to insist that we're totally getting carried away by fear and panic, consider the possibility that one major reason for that is that so many of those who earlier assured us that this would all just disappear on its own are walking back their bravado. The Rudy Gobert approach has been tried time and time again, but it just hasn't worked out well. I mean, Sweden might still pull it off, but Sweden -- like Maine and Vermont -- can pull off a lot of stuff the rest of the world can't for reasons the rest of the world doesn't even want to mention (though soon even Sweden won't be able to get away with it), so I'm not putting much weight into that.

    But I guess Bolsonaro can still carry the day. He seems just the kind of guy to understand stochastic differential equations in log-space.

  52. @Reg Cæsar

    OTOH, so were New Orleans and Madrid.

     

    Madrid is at the latitude of Philadelphia and Columbus. And Denver. Madrid is also very dry.

    Well, latitude doesn’t necessarily indicate all that much in Western Europe: Ezra Pound pointed out that Rome was the same latitude as New York City, which proved something about US culture’s being fundamentally Mediterranean–an instance of an otherwise brilliant man spouting complete nonsense. But yeah, Madrid is elevated and certainly very dry and surprisingly cold for Spain.

    • Replies: @LondonBob
    Europe has the Gulf Stream.

    Maybe Canada has less Hasidic Jews, less Italians, less tourism.
    , @epebble
    The impact is negligible all around the globe South of 18 degree North latitude.
  53. Anonymous[301] • Disclaimer says:
    @Rob
    How is Canada doing on the testing front? Did they do testing, quarantine, and and contact tracing? Stop flights from China, Italy, and Iran early enough that it mattered?

    Perhaps they just don’t have the NYC metro area.

    We saw from that graph video that countries are on pretty much the same new cases vs total cases line. Maybe their weird trick is just being a couple weeks behind us.

    Toronto is quite dense

    • Replies: @Jim Don Bob
    True. Most of them voted for Trudeau.
  54. @Bill P
    I can't speak for all of Canada, but Vancouver was careful early on. There are a lot of HK Chinese in Vancouver, and they took this seriously from the beginning. My oldest son goes to high school in Delta (south of Vancouver), and his friend's mom was put in quarantine in BC back in January after coming back from China, before cases started showing up here in Washington state. She wasn't symptomatic, either, as far as I know. I don't think any Chinese were being quarantined in the US at that point. Frankly, we should have followed Taiwan's lead on that and started caging them like pangolins in a wet market on January 1st. Nowadays Chinese are locking up Americans and making them pay $1,500 for the privilege.

    The Canadians were also kind of lucky. There were plenty of careless Canadian tourists going to California and Las Vegas as recently as a couple weeks ago, but neither of those places flared up as much as they could have.

    I don't know about Toronto, but they probably had the same protections in place BC did because of the SARS fiasco back in 2003.

    Countries that got hit by SARS are doing way, way better than those that didn't. It goes to show that it sometimes pays to learn a lesson.

    As of a couple of days ago, people were still required to go to work in Vancouver.

  55. What a silly question. The Canadians are a finer, nobler people. Accordingly God smiles on them.

  56. I would put the microscope on Vancouver BC and watch how things go there. It’s just a twinkling north of Snohomish county and has a similar relationship with the Far East.
    I would expect most of Canada west of there will look like most of the US east of NY, only better for vastly less density and exchange.

  57. @Anon
    The pandemic's extent really is the Chinese Communist Government's fault.

    We can tell by the extra amount of funeral urns sent to the funeral homes in the province where Wuhan is, that some 40,000 extra deaths must have taken place. Fox had a story on their website about this.

    If they had come clean early on about how many were gravely ill and dying, the nations of the world would have had a much more aggressive response 2 or 3 weeks earlier, and thus the numbers would have been much smaller. Xi's underlings may have not been entirely honest with him, so we cant put it all on Xi.

    China is owning up to just shy of 4,000 deaths, but by the amount of funeral urns for cremated ashes sent to the Wuhan area, its extrapolated that the real number of bodies is roughly 10 times that.

    Even then while I’m not a “Coronahoax” type they do have a point….even with that number…..40k deaths from a population of 1.3 billion….

  58. @Anon

    The Corona virus “pandemic” is a fraud. It is being used to deliberately drive a totalitarian agenda. And those of you falling for it are complete and utter fools.
     
    I held this position also initially as well but was then convinced by smart and knowledgeable people that there was something to it that I just don’t understand. All these hospitals putting up emergency tents, navy hospital ships sent to NYC and LA, shutdown of the economy, all the doctors with dire predictions, etc. Not to mention Sailer, Karlin, Unz, Taleb, et al., going all 5-alarm fire in this thing (Unz saying a local CA health commissioner is responsible for saving a million lives! Wut??).

    But I’m just not seeing the numbers of deaths so far and this CV seems ridiculously minor compared to the flu. The vast majority of people recover from it.

    Meanwhile we have projections that unemployment levels will exceed those of the Great Depression. Many industries gone for good. Many small businesses are never coming back.

    Now I’m left wondering if it’s not just some other giant coordinated operation to offset some coming economic and social collapse. I’m usually the last to learn of some inside information and the last to figure it out on my own. I’m half expecting in 6 months to be told by someone:

    “Well, it’s good we undertook that plan to shutdown the economy to save it.”

    “What do you mean? We shut it down because of the COVID-19.”

    “Is that what you think? Hahaha. Come on, everyone knows we were headed towards complete meltdown of the dollar and had to take drastic action to prevent this.”

    “But why were we told to stay inside for months?”

    “Come on, don’t play stupid, you know why. They had to shut everything down to avoid a run on banks. They used that ‘pandemic’ to avoid widespread panic and social collapse.”

    “Oh.”

    Let me add to your comments as an Economist:

    Cost/Benefit analysis is a common methodology to apply to anything involving use of money. It is usually (mis) used to overstate benefits, while underestimating costs, of major spending events, everything from stadium construction to mass transit. With coronascam, we have an interesting reversal: the one benefit is wildly overstated, and its costs are ignored.

    The stated purpose of lockdowns is to slow the spread of infection, not even stop, just slow the rate of infection. This done so that hospitals don’t get overwhelmed. Leaving aside for the moment that there are nowhere near as many infections or deaths as the SARS epidemic of 2010-11, is it really true that lockdowns slow the rate of transmission? Have they in Italy? Did South Korea, Japan, Formosa, Sweden, and Brazil have much worse rates of transmission that lockdown countries? Is a lockdown a quarantine when every grocery store, gas station, pharmacy, and government office has possibly infected people traveling through? Is there even a quantifiable benefit at all? And remember, this is the only benefit. Eat an orange, get some sun, go lie down , might be a better benefit, and a whole lot cheaper.

    Now lets consider the costs.
    1. An unknown, but huge number of unemployed people, of unknown duration, who can’t pay bills, including medical bills. So when an long-term unemployed person has a kid die from Scarlet fever this Summer when he can’t afford medical bills and delays taking the kid to the emergency room, is that a covid-19 death?
    2. The total wipeout of the tourism industry.
    3. The delay in Spring planting, disruptions in the supply chain, and so forth, causing a real increase in food prices.
    4. The systematic trashing of our Rights and Liberties. This particularly includes: The systematic, and deliberate, persecution of Religious Believers WHICH IS ABSOLUTELY BY DESIGN.
    5. The bankruptcies of untold numbers of businesses, which will be bought up for pennies on the dollar by deep pocket oligarchs.
    6. The massive corruption, and misallocation of resources, in the rich people bailout bill, sorry, fiscal stimulus bill.
    7. The unknown human costs of Police State tactics. My opinion, first Cop gets shot hassling somebody walking their dog, all hell will break loose.

    This is the essence of Coronascam. One very nebulous benefit, unending and massive costs.

    • Replies: @Intelligent Dasein

    The stated purpose of lockdowns is to slow the spread of infection, not even stop, just slow the rate of infection. This done so that hospitals don’t get overwhelmed. Leaving aside for the moment that there are nowhere near as many infections or deaths as the SARS epidemic of 2010-11, is it really true that lockdowns slow the rate of transmission?
     
    To your point, here is the lates log-scale chart of deaths is various countries, updated 03/30/2020. In this graph, China and Iran have been removed and Germany and Belgium added. Not only do we see a pronounced and obvious levelling off as the death rate moves out of the upper bound of the "flu zone," but even more important is this: The slope of every country's death rate (other than South Korea) is identical as it passes the 100/10 million threshold. These are contries from differnt parts of the world, with different climates and different demographics and a gamut of different public responses, implemented at different times. Everything different, same slope. This is pretty good prima facie evidence that the social distancing procedures aren't really doing much except destroying the economy.

    https://i0.wp.com/wattsupwiththat.com/wp-content/uploads/2020/03/corona-deaths20200330.png?w=718&ssl=1
    , @Anon
    Yeah, the very real damage from the response to the COVID-19 “pandemic” is real and immediate. I’m in my 50’s and was self-employed with an LLC. I’m done. Even if things got totally back to normal by June. No bailout for me and not even a check from the government as I made slightly over the cutoff in earnings. Maybe I can cash out my evaporated 401k and use most of it to cover the penalty for withdrawing it?

    So here I am. I spent yesterday online applying to jobs at Walmart. In the application I said that I’m available to work any day, any shift. Today I’ll apply to CVS, Wegmans, and Amazon.

    I’m not complaining, 95% of the world would love to have my problems.

  59. @Dieter Kief

    A problem with masks is you feel like a doofus being the only one wearing one, and also rude for freaking people out.

     

    Soemhow a solution for this problem:

    The German city Jena has just declared masks obligatory in public.

    There is a fair chance that wearing a mask might slightly improve one’s prospects, and. I humbly suggest that if you are worried that people might consider you a doofus, you are too f*cking stupid to go out in public. Stay in your basement.

    • LOL: Dieter Kief
    • Replies: @Charles Erwin Wilson Three

    I humbly suggest that if you are worried that people might consider you a doofus, you are too f*cking stupid to go out in public. Stay in your basement.
     
    It is difficult to obtain groceries by staying in my basement. I suggest that even doofae, such as I, might be better served by purchasing food by venturing out of our basements. Mask or no mask.
  60. @Fran Macadam
    Check out the Toronto papers. The Globe and Mail, The Toronto Star and the Toronto Sun web sites. Things are not going well at all.

    Toronto is close to the same latitude as Florence, Italy. It is barely north of Boston. I don’t the theories on weather differences either slowing or increasing the spread are holding up well.

  61. @Lockean Proviso
    I've worn my N95 to the post office and grocery store and found that it produces a rather hostile response in some even though I'm just going about my business. (For what it's worth this doesn't happen when I go out without a mask as I have for all the years before now). I think that some assume that I'm sick and that's why I have the mask on. Or maybe they are more attuned to the belief that mask wearing is a threat associated with robbers. Maybe it's just a reminder that there's a weird and pervasive threat in our midst now. I live in a very conservative area and maybe some view wearing a mask as a repudiation of Trump's competence to keep us all safe or as giving in to fake news exaggerations designed to make Trump look bad. Probably it differs depending on the individual– they've been both black and white. Most people don't mind and some seem to approve of it as a form of social responsibility (which is exactly what it is), but there are a few who don't like it.

    I will continue to wear it when I have to go into a business with other people, but not when I ride my bike around town for exercise. Masks make sense sometimes even if other people don't.

    My guess is that people still associate it with you being sick, instead of a preventative measure.

    Trump mentioned wearing masks yesterday. Unfortunately, if he promotes it the media will drone on about how he is wrong. The CDC should be taking the lead, but they’ve been woefully incompetent through much of this ordeal.

  62. @Art Deco
    They may have learned a thing or two during the SARS outbreak in Toronto in 2003 about how to see to it that your hospital network is not a source of infection.

    The four hot spots in the U.S. have been around New Orleans, Burlington (Vt), New York, Seattle, and Detroit. All over the map in terms of urban dimensions and climate. The majority of Burlington's cases, and about 17% of Seattle's, consisted of a deadly outbreak at a single nursing home. There were no new deaths in Vermont yesterday and Washington state's portion of yesterday's death toll was below the national mean, so it would appear that Burlington and Seattle are no longer hot spots in context.

    “The four hot spots in the U.S. have been around New Orleans, Burlington (Vt), New York, Seattle, and Detroit.” That would be 5, but, in agreement, what are the similarities between the 5?

  63. HA says:
    @Lockean Proviso
    I've worn my N95 to the post office and grocery store and found that it produces a rather hostile response in some even though I'm just going about my business. (For what it's worth this doesn't happen when I go out without a mask as I have for all the years before now). I think that some assume that I'm sick and that's why I have the mask on. Or maybe they are more attuned to the belief that mask wearing is a threat associated with robbers. Maybe it's just a reminder that there's a weird and pervasive threat in our midst now. I live in a very conservative area and maybe some view wearing a mask as a repudiation of Trump's competence to keep us all safe or as giving in to fake news exaggerations designed to make Trump look bad. Probably it differs depending on the individual– they've been both black and white. Most people don't mind and some seem to approve of it as a form of social responsibility (which is exactly what it is), but there are a few who don't like it.

    I will continue to wear it when I have to go into a business with other people, but not when I ride my bike around town for exercise. Masks make sense sometimes even if other people don't.

    “I’ve worn my N95 to the post office and grocery store and found that it produces a rather hostile response”

    In that case, you need to double down and go full cosplay:

    https://www.pinterest.com/pin/516084438532915484/

    What if it’s not the mask? Like, maybe you’re holding your bazooka incorrectly? That’ll get you some disapproving glances for sure. No one likes a newb.

  64. @slumber_j
    Well, latitude doesn't necessarily indicate all that much in Western Europe: Ezra Pound pointed out that Rome was the same latitude as New York City, which proved something about US culture's being fundamentally Mediterranean--an instance of an otherwise brilliant man spouting complete nonsense. But yeah, Madrid is elevated and certainly very dry and surprisingly cold for Spain.

    Europe has the Gulf Stream.

    Maybe Canada has less Hasidic Jews, less Italians, less tourism.

  65. Here is a link where you can look at some of the data in slightly different form from worldometer (IBM released this via weather channel which it owns):

    ibm.biz/covid-19-dashboard

    If you click on the tab “Rate of Covid-19 spread” you will see plots for infection spread with increasing number of days after 100 cases (so community spread has begun). Germany is identical to Italy !! Italian spread is all concentrated in a much smaller region and higher ages so its impact is worse. And France is identical to the UK !! Spain is worse than these two groups. USA is of course the worst. Primarily because of NY.

    You can also click on the top right corner and add Australia and Canada. Canada is identical to Australia, but at a point where it could go in the UK/France direction or the USA direction, which I am guessing wont happen. So to answer Steve Sailer’s question, Canada is simply at an earlier point in the curve. But because of their past experience with SARS, they may do better than the US.

    Separately looking at another tab, “Covid-19 spread over time”, it is obvious that all of south-east asia is not having much of a spread (with only 3899 cases as of two nights ago); So maybe it is the heat and humidity after all, and not just Singapore’s excellent government which is restricting community spread in Singapore. This would be consistent with claims from the commenter DanInHessMD.

  66. 5 questions that need to be asked.
    https://www.anti-empire.com/german-infectologist-decimates-covid-doomsday-cult-in-open-letter-to-merkel/

    Bonus: Has Merkel’s best backpfeifengesicht face picture.

    • Replies: @anon
    The reasons Canada has a lower infection rate than the US are probably numerous. Population density I'm sure has something to do about it and the fact that Canada has a much smaller, more efficient health care system that can deal with health issues much more quickly and efficiently. The US is like a big lumbering dinosaur and the first question that people start asking when they're faced with a health crisis like this is, who's gonna pay for it? The first question that the politicians start asking is, how can my friends and myself make a profit from it? The 50 governors all go on doing their own thing dealing with the crisis for about a month and then after hundreds of hyperbolized "we're all gonna die" stories coming from the airwaves the President finally decides to take Federal action on the matter. To sum it up, smaller, more centralized countries with universal health care tend to be more efficient at dealing with health crisis than the US, with its hodge podge system with complex webs of overlapping jurisdictions and politicians that are horribly at odds with one another at the expense of the citizens.
  67. Canada is far more sparsely populated than the US, with people spread out in remote areas. They have some large cities, but nothing like the density of New York. I imagine that if you compare the more low density states in the US , like Idaho, Montana, etc to Canada, you will find comparable numbers.

    • Replies: @Buffalo Joe
    John, not to be rude, but have you ever been to Toronto? It is a huge city with a population of nearly 3 million, making it slightly larger than Chicago.
  68. Australia’s rate is 0.7 fatalities per million people.

    A lot of testing and assiduous contact follow up on confirmed cases.

    14 day mandatory quarantine if you have been exposed to a positive.

  69. HA says:
    @theMann
    I would imagine that the chief difference between Canada and the USA is that their Medical Community is less riven with Incompetence and outright fraud than the USA. Or alternately, that they just spend more time outside - also true of Californians vs. New Yorkers.

    In the meantime:

    https://www.anti-empire.com/german-infectologist-decimates-covid-doomsday-cult-in-open-letter-to-merkel/

    https://www.lewrockwell.com/2020/03/no_author/americans-will-have-to-cure-the-coronavirus-epidemic-on-their-own/

    https://www.thegatewaypundit.com/2020/03/cbs-news-caught-using-footage-from-an-italian-hospital-to-describe-conditions-in-new-york-city-video/

    https://www.lewrockwell.com/2020/03/jon-rappoport/corona-the-case-number-game/

    https://techstartups.com/2020/03/28/dr-vladimir-zelenko-now-treated-699-coronavirus-patients-100-success-using-hydroxychloroquine-sulfate-zinc-z-pak-update/

    https://www.dailymail.co.uk/debate/article-8163587/PETER-HITCHENS-Great-Panic-foolish-freedom-broken-economy-crippled.html

    https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=ZEr4rmjwd0g

    I could link a hundred more articles, but seriously, would you read them?


    The Corona virus "pandemic" is a fraud. It is being used to deliberately drive a totalitarian agenda. And those of you falling for it are complete and utter fools. This will be known today, tomorrow, and for the rest of human history.

    “The Corona virus “pandemic” is a fraud. It is being used to deliberately drive a totalitarian agenda.”

    If that’s true, it’s happening most notably in areas like Spain and Italy and NYC that were all about ignoring the virus and not being afraid of “unfounded rumors” and claiming coronavirus was a nothingburger, which then allowed the virus to spread to the point where they decided it was time to change gears and go into lockdown. (I mean, how much of an excuse do the mullahs of Iran need to get more totalitarian?)

    How do we know that your similar cries of fraud are not part of that same conspiracy that only leads to harsher measures later on? Why are ordinarily bright people unable to even read a basic graph without screwing up, or else are reduced to spouting idiotic beliefs that viruses must evolve into less virulent forms by way of some heretofore unknown biological imperative (I guess rabies must have not gotten that memo), now some the key voices in telling us that this is all a big fraud?

    In general, it seems that if the people in charge had taken this MORE seriously earlier on (in particular, the Communist apparatchiks of Wuhan) we could all be taking it far less seriously now. Isn’t there a lesson there?

    • Agree: Paleo Liberal
    • Replies: @Charles Erwin Wilson Three

    In general, it seems that if the people in charge had taken this MORE seriously earlier on (in particular, the Communist apparatchiks of Wuhan) we could all be taking it far less seriously now. Isn’t there a lesson there?
     
    Yes. Time travel is how to address these serious issues. First, you wait until you see what happens, and then, you travel back in time and correct it! I'll put this up there with outlawing criminal behavior, and insisting on warm (but not hot), sunny days whenever anyone ventures outside. Also, the lion will lie down with the lamb.
    , @Kratoklastes

    spouting idiotic beliefs that viruses must evolve into less virulent forms by way of some heretofore unknown biological imperative
     
    Heretofore unknown to you, perhaps (and the editorial staff of the New Yorker).

    Before you think you're capable of making declarative statements about what is or isn't an 'idiotic belief', perhaps read something not written by journalists.

    e.g., -> Alizon et al (2009) Virulence evolution and the trade‐off hypothesis: history, current state of affairs and the future Journal of Evolutionary Biology, Vol 2 Issue 2 (Feb 2009)

    That's a useful review: it shows the hypothesis is perfectly sensible from the perspective of evolutionary biology, but it's still an open question and there's empirical data going both ways.

    If you don't like reading (seems likely), this Ted talk from 2014 captures most of the key concepts, and gives some recent(ish) evidence in favour of the hypothesis.

    Can we domesticate germs? (Paul Ewald, Evolutionary biologist Wikipedia bio

    https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=176adlNeRy8

    As I've said elsewhere during this made-for-TV hysteria, the hypothesis that parasites have an incentive to become less deadly has a long history, and reasonable amount of evidence to support them.

    After all, the objective of a parasite is to proliferate, not to kill its host. The host death is a side-effect, and if the host dies without spreading the parasite, then the parasite is doomed.

    Viruses have almost no 'control circuitry': they don't attempt to regulate the rate at which their takeover of the host's replicators, unfolds. (Although they do 'quorum sense').

    If a specific host species has its system taken over in an explosive fashion, there is a higher likelihood of almost-immediate lethal consequences for the host; this is unlikely to the the optimal point in the trade-off between reproductive rate (of the virus) and proliferation (again, of the virus).

    Also: this whole discussion is obfuscated in this instance because virus evolution is a bit different to the evolution of living things (there's a whole journal - unsurprisingly called 'Virus Evolution' - dedicated to the field).


    Now to the flipside: what happens when you try to do things that try to curtail a pathogen (say, with increasing doses of antibiotics in their growth medium)... the winners wind up much much hardier. Watch this - and then think about how much antibiotics humanity was using in the 20th century.

    https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=yybsSqcB7mE


    And don't get me started on quorum sensing (aka quorum signalling): bacteria and viruses talk to each other.
  70. Canada doesn’t have New York.

  71. We have universal medical care & federal government oversight because they foot the bills. Each province is accountable to the federal government for maintenance of provincial medial systems.
    Upon discovery of a potential pandemic our medical staff experts put the call out to shut down social propinquity due to clustering of disease outbreak in multi-unit living facilities.

    Triage is CANADA is well coordinated due to the amounts of money Canadians put into the universal medical system for expertise & labour costs.

    Hospitals are not private corporations with greedy shareholders that want to squeeze every last penny out of clients.

    In CANADA, we are the stakeholders & clients of the universally run system. If the system fails we know that we failed the system. In the USA the corporations run their private business based upon profit and not based upon care, or benevolence.

    Americans are greed oriented & selfish which leads to anal retentive hoarding and bad decision making based upon individual selfishness.

    Americans are in competition to see who they can step on to get to the top of the greed pyramid.

    ‘Greed is good’ Michael Douglas

    ‘Greed is an American way of life’ Ayn Rand

    RW

    • Replies: @Reg Cæsar
    Selfish, greedy, armed and imperialistic Americans after one our many invasions, this time of another régime with a "universally-run system":


    https://www.ocregister.com/wp-content/uploads/migration/kpi/kpii61-06ddaycemetary2large.jpg?w=620

    , @Cagey Beast
    Please spare us all the grandstanding and stick to the topic at hand. I say this as a Canadian.
    , @Bragadocious
    Hey dingbat, the only reason you can have the 30th best health system in the world is because you slack on your NATO contributions. We're in essence paying for your colonoscopies. The CBC agrees with my anal-ysis by the way.

    If you were a grown-up country and funded a proper military you'd have the health system of Bolivia, no offense to Bolivia.
  72. @AnonAnon
    My theories:

    1 - For all we know Canada is coding deaths to hide coronavirus victims.

    2 - Canada doesn’t get as many incoming travelers as the US nor does their population travel the globe as much as people in the US do so they had less opportunity to get the super spreaders that seem to be doing so much damage here. Do they even jet around their own country that much? They seem to like to head to Cuba or Mexico for cheap warm weather vacations. Globe trotting for work seems to be a big part of modern corporate America and I don’t get the sense Canadians travel for business nearly the same extent we do.

    There is a great website called Nextstrain.org that has animations of the virus spreading the globe. So far it doesn’t show that much activity in Canada but it’s only as good as the data it’s received from the various countries.

    3- Canada is behind the US and will hit its peak later.

    “Canada doesn’t get as many incoming travelers as the US nor does their population travel the globe as much as people in the US do so they had less opportunity to get the super spreaders that seem to be doing so much damage here.”

    60 per cent of Canadians have passports and 42 percent of Americans hold a passport.

    21 million tourists visited Canada in 2018 (0.56 tourist per one Canadian)
    76.9 million people visited the United States in 2017 (0.24 tourist per one American)

    21.9% of the Canadian population are foreign-born
    13.6% of the U.S. population are foreign-born

    What might be unique about the American Empire is that its provinces are less provincial than its center perhaps because Americans are as much the conquered subjects of the Empire as are the subjects in the conquered provinces.

  73. OT: Interesting perspective from Lord Sumption, former UK Supreme Judge. He takes the virus very seriously, but he describes the reaction to Covid-19 as a kind of collective hysteria that can turn democracy into despotism.

    • Thanks: YetAnotherAnon
    • Replies: @vhrm
    That's an excellent essay. The highlights of the interview are whipped in this article:

    https://www.express.co.uk/news/uk/1262338/Coronavirus-hysteria-Lord-Sumption-BBC-police-lockdown-UK-response


    ---
    https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=DgxZr6LLS34

    (at the time i rolled my eyes at this scene... )
    , @Kratoklastes
    I've agreed with a judge before (e.g., Denning MR's first sentence in Miller v Jackson [1977] QB 966: "In summertime village cricket is the delight of everyone.") but not often.

    However we must always keep in mind that

    Interdum stultus opportuna loquitur
     
    (Now and again, by chance a fool speaks [correctly]).

    I adopted that as phrase my primary personal motto since I first read it (in Fielding's "Tom Jones").

    It is the only thing that trumps "Les pires gouverneront" (The Worst Will Rule), and then so rarely that it seldom bites.

    Methinks Hizzonna - Oh, I do beg yiz-pahdin, m'Lud - will face the lash and the pillory for this.
  74. @Anon
    The pandemic's extent really is the Chinese Communist Government's fault.

    We can tell by the extra amount of funeral urns sent to the funeral homes in the province where Wuhan is, that some 40,000 extra deaths must have taken place. Fox had a story on their website about this.

    If they had come clean early on about how many were gravely ill and dying, the nations of the world would have had a much more aggressive response 2 or 3 weeks earlier, and thus the numbers would have been much smaller. Xi's underlings may have not been entirely honest with him, so we cant put it all on Xi.

    China is owning up to just shy of 4,000 deaths, but by the amount of funeral urns for cremated ashes sent to the Wuhan area, its extrapolated that the real number of bodies is roughly 10 times that.

    Urns in Wuhan far exceed death toll, raising more questions about China’s tally
    A single mortuary has had 5,000 urns delivered over the past two days, double the city’s reported coronavirus death toll
    http://shanghaiist.com/2020/03/27/urns-in-wuhan-far-exceed-death-toll-raising-more-questions-about-chinas-tally/

    • Replies: @Mr. Anon
    China does have a lot of old people. They aren't going to just stop dying.
    , @Joe Stalin
    Cremations means that determining the raise in deaths via burials from photographic reconnaissance would be a hard thing to determine.

    https://www.airspacemag.com/military-aviation/lin-xus-obsession-117339135/?all
  75. @Art Deco
    IMO, The most significant predictor of death rate is serious preexisting conditions. Canadian healthcare is probably better at controlling health issues early so they don’t become serious. FWIW, the US average age is lower than Canada.

    It's worth nothing. Their total fertility rate is lower than that of the United States and has been persistently lower for a generation.

    No clue why you fancy 'Canadian health care' prevents diabetes, kidney disease and emphysema.

    “‘Canadian health care’ prevents diabetes, kidney disease and emphysema.”

    Prevent? Maybe, maybe not. But access to primary healthcare means earlier detection and universal healthcare means more consistent treatment. Weren’t US diabetics going to Canada to be insulin? Where are they getting insulin now?

    My speculation is that Canadians have fewer serious preexisting conditions because they get treatment before they are serious.

  76. if the people in charge had taken this MORE seriously earlier on (in particular, the Communist apparatchiks of Wuhan) we could all be taking it far less seriously now.

    I suspect that you’re absolutely right. It doesn’t, however, mean that we should tell voices criticising the present state of play to pipe down. The chumps who were wrong originally are just as capable of being wrong now.

    • Replies: @HA
    "It doesn’t, however, mean that we should tell voices criticising the present state of play to pipe down."

    I'm not suggesting that. I still hold out hope that they will ultimately be proven right about this particular virus (as opposed to all the others that China will release in the coming decades that I doubt we're going to do anything to stop, even though now is the optimal time to start taking care of that).

    But they're going to need to come up with better arguments. Relying on Twitter personalities who look at empty hospital parking lots and say "Ha! I knew it was a scam!" won't get you far. Same goes with asking why we just can't sit on our hands until there's millions of dead in the streets, or just let this pass over us the way we did with Hong Kong flu, or else, why we can't we shrug this off the way we calmly shrug off the millions of car deaths that happen. It just shows you haven't been paying attention.

    Admittedly, it's hard to seem trustworthy about your novel unproven theories on how any good epidemiological model must take into account the fact that viruses become less deadly with time (because you really, really, want that to be the case, and that's apparently good enough) when you've spent a significant portion of the interview apologizing for the dumb math error that downsized your projections of total US deaths to 500. It's hard to come back from that, yeah. But that's the problem when you're dealing with exponential processes. Being off by a factor of two or three means being off by two or three orders of magnitude so that those uncertainties become really, really bothersome. (Moreover, given that deadly car wrecks do not exhibit exponential growth, that's not really the right comparison paradigm.)

    How can anyone blame people for thinking that the so-called panic scenarios the "standard models" are predicting might actually be more liikely to be correct if that kind of performance is best you've got by way of opposition? Maybe if the coronahoax boosters had gotten their own ducks in a row earlier (just like those idiots in Wuhan who fumbled their initial approach to this virus), people would take them more seriously now. But all that leads to the suspicion that you probably should be taking it seriously at the earliest possible opportunity. And so here we are.

  77. There will be thousands to tens of thousands of deaths in Canada, but it won’t hundreds of thousands as in USA.

    Canada is smaller and more sparsely populated.

    Canadian Health System is more functional than in the USA.

    Canada has imposed a near lockdown on the majority of its urban areas, the gradual increase in the severity of the isolation measures being slowly but surely ramped up for three weeks already.

    Canada has urged its citizens to stay home and the majority of people headed this advice.

    Tomas Pueyo charts and Ron Unz calculations convincingly demonstrate that the earlier the social distancing, isolation and lockdown measures are imposed, the lower the infection and death rate.

    Canada acted earlier and in a more rational and thorough manner.

    Hence the lower rate of infection and lower death rates.

    However, my opinion is that Canadian government should have acted even earlier.

    One of things Canadian government should have done earlier is stopping incoming travelers from abroad and closing the borders except for vital supplies transportation.

    But it is too late now to digress about it.

    • Replies: @Ano4
    Canada has of course a larger territory than US but a smaller population.

    This is why I meant when I wrote that "Canada is smaller"
    , @The Wild Geese Howard

    Canadian Health System is more functional than in the USA.
     
    I would add that, based on cursory Googling, Canada's native pharmaceutical industry is minuscule compared to the US'.

    Because that industry segment is much smaller, the Canadian health system has far less financial pressure to skew the CV-19 numbers in a fashion that could lead to billions in profits for the pharma industry.
  78. @Cagey Beast
    My guess is that Canadians are less hesitant to get tested for Covid-19 because they're not risking a huge medical bill by doing so.

    Anyway, here's the official Canadian site: https://www.canada.ca/en/public-health/services/diseases/2019-novel-coronavirus-infection.html

    90% of Americans have health insurance, so I doubt cost of care is the reason more Americans have been infected…..Testing is free in most states, and poor people get free medical care via Medicaid while everyone over 65 gets Medicare , as do the 15 million disabled Americans under the age of 65.

  79. @Lot
    A problem with masks is you feel like a doofus being the only one wearing one, and also rude for freaking people out.

    I brought one to the store today, couldn’t being myself to put it on. 3 out of about 30 had masks on, 2/5 employees and 1/25 customers.

    Make it compulsory and these issues disappear.

    Traffic was down substantially from late last week’s already low amount. 5:30pm on a weekday was like 5am on a Sunday.

    People have hoarded everything they need now and about half of restaurants that planned on staying open for takeout two weeks ago have given up and closed. The other half are nearly dead too.

    Geez, man up, Lot.

    You’re not even alone here, you’ve got other people on board. Do the right thing.

    ~~

    One thing i told my kids is that one of the only benefits to growing old beyond the things you have built–material possessions, knowledge, and most of all family–is that you have less social anxiety. You know who you are, have confidence in yourself and are less worried about the perception of others.

  80. South Korea is the country to emulate, not Canada.

  81. @Lot
    A problem with masks is you feel like a doofus being the only one wearing one, and also rude for freaking people out.

    I brought one to the store today, couldn’t being myself to put it on. 3 out of about 30 had masks on, 2/5 employees and 1/25 customers.

    Make it compulsory and these issues disappear.

    Traffic was down substantially from late last week’s already low amount. 5:30pm on a weekday was like 5am on a Sunday.

    People have hoarded everything they need now and about half of restaurants that planned on staying open for takeout two weeks ago have given up and closed. The other half are nearly dead too.

    In my head I’ve pictured you as a former alternative fan who didn’t care much what others thought. Like in the 90s you were rockin’ out to Sonic Youth and had a vinyl collection, man.

    • Replies: @Jenner Ickham Errican

    In my head I’ve pictured you as a former alternative fan who didn’t care much what others thought.
     
    Reminder:

    https://www.unz.com/isteve/the-old-weird-california/#comment-1770366 (#15)

    https://www.unz.com/isteve/katz-its-time-to-take-the-great-white-men-of-science-off-their-pedestals/#comment-2013373 (#66)
    , @Lot
    Thea:

    Not far off, I’ve never had a record player nor liked SY, but like most middle school boys in the 90s I liked Nirvana and Smashing Pumpkins. Maybe around age 15 I expanded my tastes when I first discovered mp3s, and switched over to classic rock.

    Jenner: wow how many of my comments do you have bookmarked? I got my wish, “cuck” has mostly died out compared to 2016/7. Not a classy term.
  82. @Art Deco
    IMO, The most significant predictor of death rate is serious preexisting conditions. Canadian healthcare is probably better at controlling health issues early so they don’t become serious. FWIW, the US average age is lower than Canada.

    It's worth nothing. Their total fertility rate is lower than that of the United States and has been persistently lower for a generation.

    No clue why you fancy 'Canadian health care' prevents diabetes, kidney disease and emphysema.

    That’s for gddamn sure. Sure there s a good reason why well off Canadians jump the line and come here. Why don’t you explain it to me?

  83. @Rob
    How is Canada doing on the testing front? Did they do testing, quarantine, and and contact tracing? Stop flights from China, Italy, and Iran early enough that it mattered?

    Perhaps they just don’t have the NYC metro area.

    We saw from that graph video that countries are on pretty much the same new cases vs total cases line. Maybe their weird trick is just being a couple weeks behind us.

    We’re not doing much better on the testing front. Per capita we’re on par with the US. We didn’t institute any travel restrictions or any other preventive measures–so we’re all silently expecting a tsunami. There is a real possibility that we are fudging the numbers or that there is a spike coming our way. There is also the possibility that virus has been circulating here since late November (large Chinese diaspora in Toronto and Vancouver and lots of yuppie globetrotters). Ontario is still tightening measures, and they seem to be reducing the scope of information that is being released. Make of all this what you will, but it seems like the authorities know something they’re not telling us.

    That said, I’ve been considering why the virus is hitting different places differently. While Spain and Italy are getting hit hard, the Balkans with a similar climate and environmental conditions, and similar cultural practices, and similar densely packed cities, is relatively quiet so far, despite there being many seasonal workers who spend time in Italy, and despite the fact that the Balkan states are run by a series of Peter Sellers characters. The main difference between Spain and Italy and the Balkans is that the Spaniards and Italians are still devoutly Catholic. The Balkans is predominantly Orthodox (with the exception of Croatia, Slovenia and parts of Albania), but the connection to the religious traditions was cut off for the Orthodox parts during the Communist era. Italians and Spaniards partake in the communion to a much higher degree than the peoples of the Balkans. This could be the cause behind the high concentration of the virus in Spain and Italy, which in turn makes it more deadly.
    If viral loads (concentration of the virus) is a factor, then Canada should see a much lower death rate than the US. For one, Canada has only one true large NYC-wannabe city: Toronto, which is where over 60% of cases in Ontario are registered. Vancouver has tall buildings, but the streets are largely empty. Montreal might be problematic as it has a large Jewish, Italian and French-Catholic population, but it, too, is not as busy a place as NYC, especially in wintertime. In Toronto you see a lot of what you’d see in NYC–self important twats walking around with headphones in the ears yapping away as if the world would stop spinning if they shut their pie-holes for even a minute. This yapping theoretically causes them to inadvertently spit. As the virus remains airborne for only a short amount of time, this is not a problem in suburban and rural areas, and small and medium sized cities, but it could be a factor in places where people are constantly walking in the air just vacated by a yapping twat. Where the airborne virus does not get picked up in the air by a walker, it drops on the ground and gets picked up by the walker’s shoes, from where it gets introduced into people’s working and living spaces. Then there is the crowding, the public transport, the vibrancy, and all the other factors, which play no role in non-big cities. I’m guessing that our tourist areas, which would be the equivalent to New Orleans, were spared since the outbreak happened when our biggest tourist spots experience their low season. Had this taken place a month later, southern Ontario could have been the next Lombardy.

  84. @Paleo Liberal
    There was one chart which showed that the places by that point to have been hit the hardest were all within a narrow temperature and humidity band — Wuhan, N Italy, New York, etc. The speculation was that as temperatures rose in the spring and summer, the virus would head north, and that Chicago and Detroit would soon be hard hit.

    OTOH, so were New Orleans and Madrid.

    So we can’t really be certain.

    Canada is doing better probably for the same reason Germany and Poland are, latitude.

    Expect Turkey to be the next disaster zone, it falls squarely in that band of high infection rate latitude.

    • Replies: @anon
    Places on the same latitude can have vastly different climates. Bergen, Norway is at around 60 degrees north but has a rainy cool climate not unlike Coos Bay, Oregon coast which is around 43 degrees north. Buffalo New York is at around 42 degrees north but has hot humid summers and cold snowy winters. Comparing places on the earth using latitude and coordinating this with climate is absurd. The only thing that places on earth with similar latitude have in common is hours of daylight at specific times of year.
  85. @Cagey Beast
    My guess is that Canadians are less hesitant to get tested for Covid-19 because they're not risking a huge medical bill by doing so.

    Anyway, here's the official Canadian site: https://www.canada.ca/en/public-health/services/diseases/2019-novel-coronavirus-infection.html

    Getting tested is virtually impossible. Only people with symptoms who’ve travelled within 14 days are allowed to be tested.

  86. @Lockean Proviso
    I've worn my N95 to the post office and grocery store and found that it produces a rather hostile response in some even though I'm just going about my business. (For what it's worth this doesn't happen when I go out without a mask as I have for all the years before now). I think that some assume that I'm sick and that's why I have the mask on. Or maybe they are more attuned to the belief that mask wearing is a threat associated with robbers. Maybe it's just a reminder that there's a weird and pervasive threat in our midst now. I live in a very conservative area and maybe some view wearing a mask as a repudiation of Trump's competence to keep us all safe or as giving in to fake news exaggerations designed to make Trump look bad. Probably it differs depending on the individual– they've been both black and white. Most people don't mind and some seem to approve of it as a form of social responsibility (which is exactly what it is), but there are a few who don't like it.

    I will continue to wear it when I have to go into a business with other people, but not when I ride my bike around town for exercise. Masks make sense sometimes even if other people don't.

    “I’ve worn my N95 to the post office and grocery store and found that it produces a rather hostile response in some even though I’m just going about my business.”

    What is the specific nature of the hostile responses have you received?

  87. What is South Dakota doing right?

    One thing Canada has going for it, is that people are already used to being confined during the Canadian winter.

    I’d be most interested to know specifically about Toronto and Montreal.

    It’s hard to say, as the Swedes seem to be getting nervous, and Russia has modified its original “keep claim and carry on” guidance as well.

    • Replies: @ben tillman

    One thing Canada has going for it, is that people are already used to being confined during the Canadian winter.
     
    They were already sheltering-in-place much more than the average person in the US.
    , @Charles Erwin Wilson Three

    What is South Dakota doing right?
     
    (1) dispersion (2) not that many skiers (3) mostly common sense.
  88. @Ano4
    There will be thousands to tens of thousands of deaths in Canada, but it won't hundreds of thousands as in USA.

    Canada is smaller and more sparsely populated.

    Canadian Health System is more functional than in the USA.

    Canada has imposed a near lockdown on the majority of its urban areas, the gradual increase in the severity of the isolation measures being slowly but surely ramped up for three weeks already.

    Canada has urged its citizens to stay home and the majority of people headed this advice.

    Tomas Pueyo charts and Ron Unz calculations convincingly demonstrate that the earlier the social distancing, isolation and lockdown measures are imposed, the lower the infection and death rate.

    Canada acted earlier and in a more rational and thorough manner.

    Hence the lower rate of infection and lower death rates.

    However, my opinion is that Canadian government should have acted even earlier.

    One of things Canadian government should have done earlier is stopping incoming travelers from abroad and closing the borders except for vital supplies transportation.

    But it is too late now to digress about it.

    Canada has of course a larger territory than US but a smaller population.

    This is why I meant when I wrote that “Canada is smaller”

  89. @CrunchyButRealistCon
    With the exception of the western suburbs of Detroit, isn't the pattern in a 200 mile band south of the US-CAN border similar to what's happening inside Canada? Probably Seattle, Buffalo, Burlington, Cleveland & Duluth have similar age and activity profiles (lot of "snowbirds" who spend the winter in the southeast, and live in suburbs). Expect that the relative scarcity of jet set Plutocrats in Canada may have redounded to their benefit at this point. There were a lot of Asian SARS patients in Canada in 2003 - perhaps they gained some cross-over immunity or have adopted the habit of wearing masks.

    Expect that the relative scarcity of jet set Plutocrats in Canada…

    They’re in Monaco with the European “jet-set Plutocrats” where, unlike Americans, they don’t have to pay the taxman back home.

  90. @slumber_j
    Well, latitude doesn't necessarily indicate all that much in Western Europe: Ezra Pound pointed out that Rome was the same latitude as New York City, which proved something about US culture's being fundamentally Mediterranean--an instance of an otherwise brilliant man spouting complete nonsense. But yeah, Madrid is elevated and certainly very dry and surprisingly cold for Spain.

    The impact is negligible all around the globe South of 18 degree North latitude.

  91. @Orangeman
    CDN govt is tied to the hip with Chinese oligarchy so they're playing the mask/ no mask game and parroting WHO like gospel.

    Airport screening is ridiculously lax despite assurances to the contrary. Prime Minister is in self isolation yet sees no need for testing. Media curiosity in holding pattern.

    If Canada recovers well it'll be a remarkable fluke

    The federal government’s response has been predictably awful, but most of the provinces took mesures to control the spread early. I would guess Canadians are more compliant than Americans when it comes to following directives from public officials, they’re just more docile in general. The non white population being heavily asian rather than black+latino probably helps the compliance rate too.

  92. I doubt COVID-19 rates have much to do with how health care is managed so much as other factors. Health care matters most after infection unless you have a pretty intensive preventive care. That could include testing.

    Canada has fewer acute care beds per capita than the US or other comparable nations
    https://www.healthsystemtracker.org/chart-collection/u-s-health-care-resources-compare-countries/#item-start
    That’s one of the ways they keep cost under control. OTOH, they could swamp he hospitals sooner. My Canadian friends complain that facilities are not so accessible outside the major cities. Fortunately, the outbreaks don’t seem to bother those people so much.

  93. @theMann
    I would imagine that the chief difference between Canada and the USA is that their Medical Community is less riven with Incompetence and outright fraud than the USA. Or alternately, that they just spend more time outside - also true of Californians vs. New Yorkers.

    In the meantime:

    https://www.anti-empire.com/german-infectologist-decimates-covid-doomsday-cult-in-open-letter-to-merkel/

    https://www.lewrockwell.com/2020/03/no_author/americans-will-have-to-cure-the-coronavirus-epidemic-on-their-own/

    https://www.thegatewaypundit.com/2020/03/cbs-news-caught-using-footage-from-an-italian-hospital-to-describe-conditions-in-new-york-city-video/

    https://www.lewrockwell.com/2020/03/jon-rappoport/corona-the-case-number-game/

    https://techstartups.com/2020/03/28/dr-vladimir-zelenko-now-treated-699-coronavirus-patients-100-success-using-hydroxychloroquine-sulfate-zinc-z-pak-update/

    https://www.dailymail.co.uk/debate/article-8163587/PETER-HITCHENS-Great-Panic-foolish-freedom-broken-economy-crippled.html

    https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=ZEr4rmjwd0g

    I could link a hundred more articles, but seriously, would you read them?


    The Corona virus "pandemic" is a fraud. It is being used to deliberately drive a totalitarian agenda. And those of you falling for it are complete and utter fools. This will be known today, tomorrow, and for the rest of human history.

    >> would imagine that the chief difference between Canada and the USA is that their Medical Community is less riven with Incompetence and outright fraud than the USA. Or alternately, that they just spend more time outside – also true of Californians vs. New Yorkers.<<

    Yes, you "imagine" a lot of things, I'd wager. After all we all know the best physicians in the world all flock to Canada for their professional careers. And that's why Americans eagerly line up at the border to get their specialty medical care there. Since after all, there are no malpractice laws there for doctors, so naturally that means there is no medical malpractice. Right?

    What makes you think Canadians are spending time outdoors in March? Have you ever been to Canada in March? The southernmost tip of Canada is somewhat north of Detroit. People are sunbathing there now, right? Both Cali and NY are hotbeds of this virus. California in March isn't very warm, the Pacific is icy until mid summer, people don't walk anywhere either. But in your imagination it is always Baywatch and babes. Ah, no wonder you are so happy now.

    Of course you are one of the COVID-19 "hoaxers" so that figures. Better get to your evangelical tent revival meeting now, so they can lay on hands to bless you. Jesus always loved crowds and curing the sick. You could be one of those!

    • Replies: @Jack D

    The southernmost tip of Canada is somewhat north of Detroit.
     
    Actually Windsor, Ontario lies directly SOUTH of Detroit. It's about the same latitude as Boston, MA.

    In the case of colds and flu, being indoors is usually considered WORSE than being outdoors (for reasons that are not entirely clear - they know that flu season is winter but they don't 100% understand why - low indoor humidity? people more crowded together?).

    I would say that in the case of Wuhan Virus (or any novel contagious virus), the biggest factor is social distancing. You get outbreaks in places where people don't practice it. Typically there is some big social event where a supercarrier (someone who is shedding virus like crazy) is present and he infects everyone at that event and they all fan out and go home and infect everyone in their circle. There is certain randomness in where the supercarrier lights the fire but also cultural aspects to (lack of) social distancing that keeps it going. In today's NY Times they give the story of a well attended funeral of a black man with 10 kids in Albany, GA that set off a big outbreak. In New Orleans you had people from all over the state attending some event a few weeks ago and when they drove back to their home towns they each set off an epidemic. If you have groups (e.g. Hasidic Jews, ghetto blacks) who are resistant to maintaining social distancing, they are going to keep setting off these fires.

    I am really surprised that the analogy of fire has not been used more. Maybe it is racist or something. If you cut off every ember from a source of fresh fuel and let it burn itself out, a forest fire will go out eventually. If the wind keeps blowing the sparks onto unburned timber, the fire is going to keep spreading. Now it's much easier to put out a fire when it is still a little brush fire but we completely blew that opportunity.
  94. @Art Deco
    What does that have to do with why Canada has fewer deaths?

    Early and widespread testing means early quarantining before carriers spread it to many other people. At least that’s the speculation regarding Germany’s low death rate thus far.

  95. The weird trick is called lying. For example, Germany is recording deaths as heart attacks when the person had coronavirus. Yes, their [email protected]#king heart failed but the trigger was the virus.

    Italy, by contrast, is trying to code deaths accurately and has horror numbers. Even in Italy, the excess deaths seem to about 4.5 times the official virus death rate. The data for this is currently very localized but it is consistent.

    Long term the only thing that matters is the excess death rate.

    • Replies: @UK
    You likely have the lying the wrong way around. All of the institutional and cultural incentives in Western countries dictate it.
    , @AnotherDad

    The weird trick is called lying. For example, Germany is recording deaths as heart attacks when the person had coronavirus. Yes, their [email protected]#king heart failed but the trigger was the virus.

    Italy, by contrast, is trying to code deaths accurately and has horror numbers. Even in Italy, the excess deaths seem to about 4.5 times the official virus death rate. The data for this is currently very localized but it is consistent.
     
    Oh please. It's not the Germans who are "lying".

    https://www.bloomberg.com/news/articles/2020-03-18/99-of-those-who-died-from-virus-had-other-illness-italy-says

    This is at least 95%--maybe 99%--an "old and sick people have to die of something" disease.

    And the political "pressure" or tendency in the West will be to tag every last death that is plausibly Covid-19 as exactly that. Less responsibility. More funding. And the chic thing to do.

    Long term the only thing that matters is the excess death rate.
     
    Well yes. Excess death rate and effects on future death rates.

    The deal with this is that it can "kill" a lot of people ... but it kills precisely the old and sick people who would be ideal "flu death" candidates in the next 5 or 10 years.

    It is "early harvest", it is not mowing down younger people in their prime. (Which is why the hysterics "World War II" analogies are so offensive.)
  96. @AnonAnon
    My theories:

    1 - For all we know Canada is coding deaths to hide coronavirus victims.

    2 - Canada doesn’t get as many incoming travelers as the US nor does their population travel the globe as much as people in the US do so they had less opportunity to get the super spreaders that seem to be doing so much damage here. Do they even jet around their own country that much? They seem to like to head to Cuba or Mexico for cheap warm weather vacations. Globe trotting for work seems to be a big part of modern corporate America and I don’t get the sense Canadians travel for business nearly the same extent we do.

    There is a great website called Nextstrain.org that has animations of the virus spreading the globe. So far it doesn’t show that much activity in Canada but it’s only as good as the data it’s received from the various countries.

    3- Canada is behind the US and will hit its peak later.

    1 – For all we know Canada is coding deaths to hide coronavirus victims.

    I don’t think that is very likely.

    Meanwhile, in the US, you have Corona victim guidance like this being issued:

    https://www.health.ny.gov/vital_records/edrs/docs/guidance_for_certifying_covid-19_deaths.pdf


    It is important to emphasize that Coronavirus Disease 2019or COVID-19 should be reported on the death certificate for all decedents where the disease caused or is assumed to have caused or contributed to death.

  97. Maybe Canada does not have a group like the employees of the city of New York . Even with growing cases throughout the U.S. they are maintaing their 1% of all of the cases in the U.S. I good question would be how many of them were infected while at work versus while doing something else.

    https://www.cnn.com/world/live-news/coronavirus-pandemic-03-31-20/h_844dc4cbf0abe5a800d6256967d1e825

  98. What Is Canada Doing Right?

    Nothing.

    When i was a kid, Canada was one of the best places on earth. A veritable whitetopia.

    They aggressively adopted minoritarianism–“diversity is our strength”ism–to show how much more virtuous they are than us cowboy Americans … and pissed it all away.

    • Agree: BenKenobi
    • Replies: @Cagey Beast
    ... to show how much more virtuous they are than us cowboy Americans...

    Yes, we adopted the same immigration policy as you in order to be different from you. Everything's about you.
  99. @AnonAnon
    My theories:

    1 - For all we know Canada is coding deaths to hide coronavirus victims.

    2 - Canada doesn’t get as many incoming travelers as the US nor does their population travel the globe as much as people in the US do so they had less opportunity to get the super spreaders that seem to be doing so much damage here. Do they even jet around their own country that much? They seem to like to head to Cuba or Mexico for cheap warm weather vacations. Globe trotting for work seems to be a big part of modern corporate America and I don’t get the sense Canadians travel for business nearly the same extent we do.

    There is a great website called Nextstrain.org that has animations of the virus spreading the globe. So far it doesn’t show that much activity in Canada but it’s only as good as the data it’s received from the various countries.

    3- Canada is behind the US and will hit its peak later.

    Canada doesn’t get as many incoming travelers as the US

    True. Though the travellers it does get tend to be more concentrated in a few Canadian cities than would be the case with those visiting the US.

    nor does their population travel the globe as much as people in the US do so they had less opportunity to get the super spreaders that seem to be doing so much damage here.

    Canadians are far more likely to travel internationally than Americans. Something like 60% of all trips are outside of Canada – it’s absurdly expensive travelling within Canada by plane – with over two thirds of Canadians having valid passports. Almost all the early cases of the virus in Ontario involved people who had just returned from the US, Iran, Italy, or China or their close relatives.

    • Replies: @dr kill
    Honestly, you fuckers from Canada have passports so you can buy cheap Levi's I here.
  100. Maybe virus transmission is suited to a rather narrow east-west climatic and humidity range which is shared by the bigger hotspots. So Wuhan, Qom in northern Iran, northern Italy and Spain are hit hard but go north or south and it isn’t as infectious or deadly. The Northeastern seaboard may suffer but the rest of the US may get off lighter.

  101. @Lot
    A problem with masks is you feel like a doofus being the only one wearing one, and also rude for freaking people out.

    I brought one to the store today, couldn’t being myself to put it on. 3 out of about 30 had masks on, 2/5 employees and 1/25 customers.

    Make it compulsory and these issues disappear.

    Traffic was down substantially from late last week’s already low amount. 5:30pm on a weekday was like 5am on a Sunday.

    People have hoarded everything they need now and about half of restaurants that planned on staying open for takeout two weeks ago have given up and closed. The other half are nearly dead too.

    I wouldn’t know. We’ve been doing the online grocery ordering thing. It’s more expensive, they either don’t have a lot of the stuff or else propose unsuitable substitutions and I’d rather be picking out my own bananas but as between getting the best quality produce and not exposing myself to an epidemic, I choose the latter. When I complained to instacart about a couple of things they credited me and did not quibble, but it was the first time I complained.

    My chances are fairly good (if not perfect) but we are the lifeline to my 97 year old mother in law so I really don’t want to be responsible for killing the old dame in order to pick out my own tomatoes. I miss going to the store but I am hoping that things will calm down in a few weeks so that the possibility of death/possibility of getting a ripe melon risk/reward ratio will be more in balance.

    • Replies: @Mr. Anon
    How do you know your grocery order isn't being packed by a symptomless super-spreader? Of course, I'm sure he wears gloves. Just as I'm sure he still wipes his nose with the back of his hand, scratches his nose, and rubs his eyes............all with the gloves on.
    , @peterike

    so that the possibility of death/possibility of getting a ripe melon risk/reward ratio will be more in balance.
     
    A ripe melon? Where in hell outside a farmer's market can you ever find a ripe melon anymore?

    I might risk kissing a virus infected person in exchange for a truly ripe peach.
  102. @AnonAnon
    My theories:

    1 - For all we know Canada is coding deaths to hide coronavirus victims.

    2 - Canada doesn’t get as many incoming travelers as the US nor does their population travel the globe as much as people in the US do so they had less opportunity to get the super spreaders that seem to be doing so much damage here. Do they even jet around their own country that much? They seem to like to head to Cuba or Mexico for cheap warm weather vacations. Globe trotting for work seems to be a big part of modern corporate America and I don’t get the sense Canadians travel for business nearly the same extent we do.

    There is a great website called Nextstrain.org that has animations of the virus spreading the globe. So far it doesn’t show that much activity in Canada but it’s only as good as the data it’s received from the various countries.

    3- Canada is behind the US and will hit its peak later.

    Anon, Canadians travel extensively in the winter, as Fort Erie, Ontario, across the Peace Bridge from Buffalo, is about as far south as you can go in Canada. You are correct about visitors at this time of year to Canada, except for the great skiing in the Canadian Rockies. So watch for results from there. Ontarians border cross to ski locally in Ellicotville, NY. Snow birds love our southern states and golf courses and there are travel wholesalers in Toronto featuring non stops to all of the Caribbean, including Cuba.

  103. @Mr McKenna
    I'm amazed that you are still going to the store.

    Why?

    • Replies: @JimB

    https://www.berkeleyside.com/2020/03/21/man-80-reportedly-has-first-community-transmitted-covid-19-case-in-berkeley
     
    The man doesn’t go out much in general, she said, but was at the Safeway at 1444 Shattuck Place, at Rose Street, last Sunday. She said she wanted people who visited that Safeway that day to know that.
  104. I hear at least some places in Canada are enforcing social distancing more zealously, with more detailed procedures for things like grocery shopping.

  105. @John Rohan
    Canada is far more sparsely populated than the US, with people spread out in remote areas. They have some large cities, but nothing like the density of New York. I imagine that if you compare the more low density states in the US , like Idaho, Montana, etc to Canada, you will find comparable numbers.

    John, not to be rude, but have you ever been to Toronto? It is a huge city with a population of nearly 3 million, making it slightly larger than Chicago.

    • Replies: @Art Deco
    The dense settlement around Chicago has about 8.4 million people in it. That around Toronto, which now extends as far as Hamilton, has just north of 6 million. Toronto's bigger than any American metropolis other than New York, Los Angeles, and Chicago.
  106. @Neoconned
    1 of my cousin's in laws died in Greater NOLA. From what my cousin told me he was mid 50s, worked out etc. I don't get it either.

    Considering free market types like to scream murder at Canada's health care system they seem to be doing a better job at containing this garbage than the incompetents and cluster fu--s running our health care system.

    As can be seen: de regulation and free market incentives DON'T WORK AS PLANNED.

    I also beg to differ with Dr. Dan Hessen but like the Drudge headline had the other day Louisiana had the fastest growth rate "on planet Earth" THIS WEEK.....

    Its so stinking humid here i call it "Satan's Crotch".....the weather is also weird this year....normally its cold as hell right now and pouring rain....instead ita VERY HUMID but NOT raining(hasnt rained significantly in a month) so i dunno if that has anything to do w it....but if humidity is a mitigation factor in the spread of covid19.....you sure as hell could have fooled me down here in "ground zero".....

    Something else though.....ive noticed Doordash & delivery services are popular in other parts of the country.....NOT HERE....ppl are OBSESSED w their vehicles here. White folks, blacks, doesn't matter....they love running the roads and put putting around....im weird, i hate cars and hate going out....

    If you think L.A. or Houston has a car culture come to Greater NOLA. People use mass transit in the city but elsewhere NOBODY DOES....a common phrase here is "gotta have wheels" and "i love my car"

    Neoconned — You had a million people crowded onto the streets of New Orleans in *February* for Mardi Gras culminating in a big city-wide mosh pit on Feb. 25th. That is believed to be the origin of Coronavirus there.

    The relevant weather for New Orleans is the weather in February culminating on Feb. 25th (fat Tuesday), because that is Mardi Gras time there. Plenty of highs in the fifties and lows and the forties at that time if you look at the monthly weather in New Orleans.

    I admit I am surprised that New Orleans has had it as bad as they have. It appears that large crowds outdoors in chilly weather is phenomenally bad and this was the thing in the Big Easy all of January and February. Still Louisiana has 20x few cases than New York which is surely significant.

    Mexico has had very few cases, and the many tropical countries have done well, so warmth and humidity still seems very helpful.

    But it may be that the temperature and humidity points for protection may be higher than I thought. Also helpful is not the same as being a cure. Humidity and higher temperatures are surely helpful in terms of reducing tranmission and aiding the respiratory immune system, but they are not a cure by themselves.

    • Replies: @Hippopotamusdrome


    You had a million people crowded onto the streets of New Orleans in *February* for Mardi Gras

     

    Also, you had black-friday size mobs at the grocery store getting a one year supply of hand sanitizer and toilet paper in anticipation of the zombie apocylypse.
  107. @Federalist
    Some see mask wearing as further feeding into the panic of a feminized society that is leading to massive unemployment and destroying small businesses. (Big business, as always, will be fine.)

    The stock market was itching to crash even without COVID-19.

    • Replies: @Federalist
    The stock market? Government mandated closures of businesses and stay-at-home orders are what are causing small businesses to fail and causing massive unemployment.
  108. @Oscar Peterson
    What is South Dakota doing right?

    One thing Canada has going for it, is that people are already used to being confined during the Canadian winter.

    I'd be most interested to know specifically about Toronto and Montreal.

    It's hard to say, as the Swedes seem to be getting nervous, and Russia has modified its original "keep claim and carry on" guidance as well.

    One thing Canada has going for it, is that people are already used to being confined during the Canadian winter.

    They were already sheltering-in-place much more than the average person in the US.

  109. @Robert White
    We have universal medical care & federal government oversight because they foot the bills. Each province is accountable to the federal government for maintenance of provincial medial systems.
    Upon discovery of a potential pandemic our medical staff experts put the call out to shut down social propinquity due to clustering of disease outbreak in multi-unit living facilities.

    Triage is CANADA is well coordinated due to the amounts of money Canadians put into the universal medical system for expertise & labour costs.

    Hospitals are not private corporations with greedy shareholders that want to squeeze every last penny out of clients.

    In CANADA, we are the stakeholders & clients of the universally run system. If the system fails we know that we failed the system. In the USA the corporations run their private business based upon profit and not based upon care, or benevolence.

    Americans are greed oriented & selfish which leads to anal retentive hoarding and bad decision making based upon individual selfishness.

    Americans are in competition to see who they can step on to get to the top of the greed pyramid.

    'Greed is good' Michael Douglas

    'Greed is an American way of life' Ayn Rand

    RW

    Selfish, greedy, armed and imperialistic Americans after one our many invasions, this time of another régime with a “universally-run system”:

    [MORE]

    • Replies: @Cagey Beast
    Canada has its share of military cemeteries in France too. Those graves belong to men who'd just escaped the Depression. We will never know but I'd guess the majority of them were for universal healthcare as well.
  110. Last thought about Canada from a guy who lives across the border. A lot of Canadians come down to Buffalo to avail themselves of hospital care. Buffalo has the Oshei Women and Children’s Hospital and Roswell Park Cancer Center. Just check out the parking ramps for Canadian plates. And a three hour drive from the border takes you to Cleveland and the world renown Cleveland Clinic.

  111. @AnotherDad


    What Is Canada Doing Right?
     
    Nothing.

    When i was a kid, Canada was one of the best places on earth. A veritable whitetopia.

    They aggressively adopted minoritarianism--"diversity is our strength"ism--to show how much more virtuous they are than us cowboy Americans ... and pissed it all away.

    … to show how much more virtuous they are than us cowboy Americans…

    Yes, we adopted the same immigration policy as you in order to be different from you. Everything’s about you.

  112. @Mike1
    The weird trick is called lying. For example, Germany is recording deaths as heart attacks when the person had coronavirus. Yes, their [email protected]#king heart failed but the trigger was the virus.

    Italy, by contrast, is trying to code deaths accurately and has horror numbers. Even in Italy, the excess deaths seem to about 4.5 times the official virus death rate. The data for this is currently very localized but it is consistent.

    Long term the only thing that matters is the excess death rate.

    You likely have the lying the wrong way around. All of the institutional and cultural incentives in Western countries dictate it.

  113. @Muggles
    >> would imagine that the chief difference between Canada and the USA is that their Medical Community is less riven with Incompetence and outright fraud than the USA. Or alternately, that they just spend more time outside – also true of Californians vs. New Yorkers.<<

    Yes, you "imagine" a lot of things, I'd wager. After all we all know the best physicians in the world all flock to Canada for their professional careers. And that's why Americans eagerly line up at the border to get their specialty medical care there. Since after all, there are no malpractice laws there for doctors, so naturally that means there is no medical malpractice. Right?

    What makes you think Canadians are spending time outdoors in March? Have you ever been to Canada in March? The southernmost tip of Canada is somewhat north of Detroit. People are sunbathing there now, right? Both Cali and NY are hotbeds of this virus. California in March isn't very warm, the Pacific is icy until mid summer, people don't walk anywhere either. But in your imagination it is always Baywatch and babes. Ah, no wonder you are so happy now.

    Of course you are one of the COVID-19 "hoaxers" so that figures. Better get to your evangelical tent revival meeting now, so they can lay on hands to bless you. Jesus always loved crowds and curing the sick. You could be one of those!

    The southernmost tip of Canada is somewhat north of Detroit.

    Actually Windsor, Ontario lies directly SOUTH of Detroit. It’s about the same latitude as Boston, MA.

    In the case of colds and flu, being indoors is usually considered WORSE than being outdoors (for reasons that are not entirely clear – they know that flu season is winter but they don’t 100% understand why – low indoor humidity? people more crowded together?).

    I would say that in the case of Wuhan Virus (or any novel contagious virus), the biggest factor is social distancing. You get outbreaks in places where people don’t practice it. Typically there is some big social event where a supercarrier (someone who is shedding virus like crazy) is present and he infects everyone at that event and they all fan out and go home and infect everyone in their circle. There is certain randomness in where the supercarrier lights the fire but also cultural aspects to (lack of) social distancing that keeps it going. In today’s NY Times they give the story of a well attended funeral of a black man with 10 kids in Albany, GA that set off a big outbreak. In New Orleans you had people from all over the state attending some event a few weeks ago and when they drove back to their home towns they each set off an epidemic. If you have groups (e.g. Hasidic Jews, ghetto blacks) who are resistant to maintaining social distancing, they are going to keep setting off these fires.

    I am really surprised that the analogy of fire has not been used more. Maybe it is racist or something. If you cut off every ember from a source of fresh fuel and let it burn itself out, a forest fire will go out eventually. If the wind keeps blowing the sparks onto unburned timber, the fire is going to keep spreading. Now it’s much easier to put out a fire when it is still a little brush fire but we completely blew that opportunity.

    • Replies: @Federalist

    In New Orleans you had people from all over the state attending some event a few weeks ago and when they drove back to their home towns they each set off an epidemic.
     
    It seems likely that Mardi Gras had a lot to do with this. The positive tests and deaths in Louisiana are heavily concentrated in New Orleans and in Jefferson Parish, which is basically a suburb of New Orleans and which also hosts Mardi Gras parades. There are numerous large parades on Mardi Gras and the days leading up to it. These are massive gatherings of people from all over the U.S. and even other parts of the world.

    So, it's not clear that it was a case of people from all over the State of Louisiana returning home and setting off epidemics. Outside of the New Orleans area, Louisiana may not be severely hard hit.
    , @Ron Mexico
    "Actually Windsor, Ontario lies directly SOUTH of Detroit."
    Right you are. Steve Perry caught a lot of shit for not knowing that.
  114. They don’t have as many foreign visitors, not as many Elites who’ve gone on European skiing vacations, and they have a population that’s pretty rural and has been settled in for their winter.

  115. @Robert White
    We have universal medical care & federal government oversight because they foot the bills. Each province is accountable to the federal government for maintenance of provincial medial systems.
    Upon discovery of a potential pandemic our medical staff experts put the call out to shut down social propinquity due to clustering of disease outbreak in multi-unit living facilities.

    Triage is CANADA is well coordinated due to the amounts of money Canadians put into the universal medical system for expertise & labour costs.

    Hospitals are not private corporations with greedy shareholders that want to squeeze every last penny out of clients.

    In CANADA, we are the stakeholders & clients of the universally run system. If the system fails we know that we failed the system. In the USA the corporations run their private business based upon profit and not based upon care, or benevolence.

    Americans are greed oriented & selfish which leads to anal retentive hoarding and bad decision making based upon individual selfishness.

    Americans are in competition to see who they can step on to get to the top of the greed pyramid.

    'Greed is good' Michael Douglas

    'Greed is an American way of life' Ayn Rand

    RW

    Please spare us all the grandstanding and stick to the topic at hand. I say this as a Canadian.

    • Replies: @Buffalo Joe
    Cagey, weren't you supposed to say...." I say this as a Canadian, eh?"
  116. @theMann
    Let me add to your comments as an Economist:

    Cost/Benefit analysis is a common methodology to apply to anything involving use of money. It is usually (mis) used to overstate benefits, while underestimating costs, of major spending events, everything from stadium construction to mass transit. With coronascam, we have an interesting reversal: the one benefit is wildly overstated, and its costs are ignored.


    The stated purpose of lockdowns is to slow the spread of infection, not even stop, just slow the rate of infection. This done so that hospitals don't get overwhelmed. Leaving aside for the moment that there are nowhere near as many infections or deaths as the SARS epidemic of 2010-11, is it really true that lockdowns slow the rate of transmission? Have they in Italy? Did South Korea, Japan, Formosa, Sweden, and Brazil have much worse rates of transmission that lockdown countries? Is a lockdown a quarantine when every grocery store, gas station, pharmacy, and government office has possibly infected people traveling through? Is there even a quantifiable benefit at all? And remember, this is the only benefit. Eat an orange, get some sun, go lie down , might be a better benefit, and a whole lot cheaper.

    Now lets consider the costs.
    1. An unknown, but huge number of unemployed people, of unknown duration, who can't pay bills, including medical bills. So when an long-term unemployed person has a kid die from Scarlet fever this Summer when he can't afford medical bills and delays taking the kid to the emergency room, is that a covid-19 death?
    2. The total wipeout of the tourism industry.
    3. The delay in Spring planting, disruptions in the supply chain, and so forth, causing a real increase in food prices.
    4. The systematic trashing of our Rights and Liberties. This particularly includes: The systematic, and deliberate, persecution of Religious Believers WHICH IS ABSOLUTELY BY DESIGN.
    5. The bankruptcies of untold numbers of businesses, which will be bought up for pennies on the dollar by deep pocket oligarchs.
    6. The massive corruption, and misallocation of resources, in the rich people bailout bill, sorry, fiscal stimulus bill.
    7. The unknown human costs of Police State tactics. My opinion, first Cop gets shot hassling somebody walking their dog, all hell will break loose.

    This is the essence of Coronascam. One very nebulous benefit, unending and massive costs.

    The stated purpose of lockdowns is to slow the spread of infection, not even stop, just slow the rate of infection. This done so that hospitals don’t get overwhelmed. Leaving aside for the moment that there are nowhere near as many infections or deaths as the SARS epidemic of 2010-11, is it really true that lockdowns slow the rate of transmission?

    To your point, here is the lates log-scale chart of deaths is various countries, updated 03/30/2020. In this graph, China and Iran have been removed and Germany and Belgium added. Not only do we see a pronounced and obvious levelling off as the death rate moves out of the upper bound of the “flu zone,” but even more important is this: The slope of every country’s death rate (other than South Korea) is identical as it passes the 100/10 million threshold. These are contries from differnt parts of the world, with different climates and different demographics and a gamut of different public responses, implemented at different times. Everything different, same slope. This is pretty good prima facie evidence that the social distancing procedures aren’t really doing much except destroying the economy.

    • Replies: @DFC
    No, you do not understand how the lockdown works at all in this epidemic

    If you see the curve of Italy you can see that is "bending" recently, and becoming more horizontal, it started to be more close to an horizontal line, and this is because to have an effect, the lockdown measures needs at least 3 weeks to start a clear change in the trends, in the number of deaths, because there is a delay due to the period of incubation and aggravation before to die of all the people that were infected just prior the lockdown, the typical period for this pandemic is around 20 days from infection to death in people they could track the source of infection, so that is the reason the lockdowns are only effective after three weeks and the deceleration is not sudden, as all the process that depends of many patients

    Italy made the lockdown in 9 or march, so now you will see how the line started to change a lot from the US or the rest of the curves, and Spain in more or less a week. So the rest of the countries are still well inside the exponential phase

    End the lockdown and you will see again how the increase of number of deaths become exponential again in 3 weeks
  117. Isolating Justin early on surely didn’t hurt.

    • LOL: Cortes
  118. What Is Canada Doing Right?

    What is the Central African Republic doing right?

    Central African Republic
    Confirmed: 3
    Deaths: 0
    Recovered: 0
    Active: 3

    https://www.arcgis.com/apps/opsdashboard/index.html#/bda7594740fd40299423467b48e9ecf6

    • Replies: @AnotherDad

    Central African Republic
    Confirmed: 3
    Deaths: 0
    Recovered: 0
    Active: 3
     
    C-A-R! C-A-R! C-A-R!

    Africa is a great test of this. Africa has zero chance of mitigating this in any significant way, nor of providing adequate health care. They've got the weather in their favor. But that's it. So it will be pretty much a "let it rip" scenario.

    No doubt Covid-19 will "kill" millions of Africans.

    But then guess what:

    The heroic women of Africa will rally with their wombs! ... and defeat this racist, colonialist attack by the "white" man.

    You'll look at the demographics and population of Africa in a few years and they'll be no indication Covid-19 was an issue.
    , @Cagey Beast
    Yeah, just like the Central African Republic:

    https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=k8Sc1AktaZk

    (This is dated January 29th of this year)
    , @ScarletNumber
    The Central African Republic has such a boring name that it should be written as central african republic.
  119. @Jack D
    I wouldn't know. We've been doing the online grocery ordering thing. It's more expensive, they either don't have a lot of the stuff or else propose unsuitable substitutions and I'd rather be picking out my own bananas but as between getting the best quality produce and not exposing myself to an epidemic, I choose the latter. When I complained to instacart about a couple of things they credited me and did not quibble, but it was the first time I complained.

    My chances are fairly good (if not perfect) but we are the lifeline to my 97 year old mother in law so I really don't want to be responsible for killing the old dame in order to pick out my own tomatoes. I miss going to the store but I am hoping that things will calm down in a few weeks so that the possibility of death/possibility of getting a ripe melon risk/reward ratio will be more in balance.

    How do you know your grocery order isn’t being packed by a symptomless super-spreader? Of course, I’m sure he wears gloves. Just as I’m sure he still wipes his nose with the back of his hand, scratches his nose, and rubs his eyes…………all with the gloves on.

    • Replies: @Jack D
    You don't, but you can put on gloves, either wash or wipe off everything refrigerated with a disinfectant wipe before you put it away, then throw away the gloves and wash your hands. The non-refrigerated stuff you should leave undisturbed as long as possible and the viruses will fade on their own. It's not zero risk but I think it's less than the risk of being in a supermarket with hundreds of other people.
  120. @Mike1
    The weird trick is called lying. For example, Germany is recording deaths as heart attacks when the person had coronavirus. Yes, their [email protected]#king heart failed but the trigger was the virus.

    Italy, by contrast, is trying to code deaths accurately and has horror numbers. Even in Italy, the excess deaths seem to about 4.5 times the official virus death rate. The data for this is currently very localized but it is consistent.

    Long term the only thing that matters is the excess death rate.

    The weird trick is called lying. For example, Germany is recording deaths as heart attacks when the person had coronavirus. Yes, their [email protected]#king heart failed but the trigger was the virus.

    Italy, by contrast, is trying to code deaths accurately and has horror numbers. Even in Italy, the excess deaths seem to about 4.5 times the official virus death rate. The data for this is currently very localized but it is consistent.

    Oh please. It’s not the Germans who are “lying”.

    https://www.bloomberg.com/news/articles/2020-03-18/99-of-those-who-died-from-virus-had-other-illness-italy-says

    This is at least 95%–maybe 99%–an “old and sick people have to die of something” disease.

    And the political “pressure” or tendency in the West will be to tag every last death that is plausibly Covid-19 as exactly that. Less responsibility. More funding. And the chic thing to do.

    Long term the only thing that matters is the excess death rate.

    Well yes. Excess death rate and effects on future death rates.

    The deal with this is that it can “kill” a lot of people … but it kills precisely the old and sick people who would be ideal “flu death” candidates in the next 5 or 10 years.

    It is “early harvest”, it is not mowing down younger people in their prime. (Which is why the hysterics “World War II” analogies are so offensive.)

    • Agree: Testing12
    • Replies: @Chrisnonymous
    One explanation for Japan is that the disease is more widespread here than limited testing is showing but that this isn't reflected in an unusually high death rate because many elderly people live alone and don't have much contact with others.

    I am back in Japan now. The longer I am here, I am starting to fear that the reaction in the West is massively damaging overkill. In Japan, hobby activities like concerts, tea ceremonies, sports events etc are shut down. And of course many schools are closed. Also, there is some voluntary self-quaratine, like business travelers returning from overseas. However, until just a few days ago, it was otherwise life as normal. People go to work and restaurants are open, and there isn't--is NOT by a long shot--universal mask wearing or social distancing.

    Now, cases are starting to pick up. However, as some have pointed out, the increase in cases coming immediately after the Olympics was cancelled is suspicious.

    I have a bad feeling that the virus is more widespread here than the official numbers indicate, and that this means it's possible to manage the outbreak without destroying your economy entirely with early and targeted closures and quarantine of elderly and at-risk. Maybe add in some public health measures like Czech or Taiwan has done.

    I don't know what's going on in NYC and Italy with overwhelmed hospitals, but it will be interesting to see what everything looks like in hindsight.

    Note I don't believe it's a hoax and am very ready to believe we are not overreacting, but it is undeniable that we get flu deaths every year and no one bats an eye. If this ends up being, in the end, just like a very bad flu then we will have overreacted I'm afraid. Still too early to say for sure.

    I guess one way to look at this is as a trial run for something more MERS-like (30% fatality). Good to see, for example, that health-care workers haven't abandoned their jobs, and good to get a sense of what our weaknesses are.
    , @Mike1
    You could always bother to research what Germany is doing.

    The stupid in your post is almost incomprehensible but "they had other illnesses and would have died at some point" is a sane argument in your head? Its hard not to see this illness as reaping the dumb at this point.
  121. @AnonAnon
    My theories:

    1 - For all we know Canada is coding deaths to hide coronavirus victims.

    2 - Canada doesn’t get as many incoming travelers as the US nor does their population travel the globe as much as people in the US do so they had less opportunity to get the super spreaders that seem to be doing so much damage here. Do they even jet around their own country that much? They seem to like to head to Cuba or Mexico for cheap warm weather vacations. Globe trotting for work seems to be a big part of modern corporate America and I don’t get the sense Canadians travel for business nearly the same extent we do.

    There is a great website called Nextstrain.org that has animations of the virus spreading the globe. So far it doesn’t show that much activity in Canada but it’s only as good as the data it’s received from the various countries.

    3- Canada is behind the US and will hit its peak later.

    1 – For all we know Canada is coding deaths to hide coronavirus victims.

    How do we know that the U.S. isn’t coding deaths to inflate the number of coronavirus victims?

  122. @DanHessinMD
    Paleo Liberal --

    You are referring to this paper:
    Sajadi et al. (2020) Temperature and Latitude Analysis to Predict Potential Spread and Seasonality for COVID-19

    https://papers.ssrn.com/sol3/papers.cfm?abstract_id=3550308

    My sense is that the virus
    (1) does not thrive in high heat and humidity
    (2) is killed in outdoor areas when the temperature drops below freezing.

    Hence the sweet spot: As close to freezing as possible without going below freezing. This means colder climes have their peaks still ahead of them.

    Are you Dan Hessin, MD or are you Dan Hess in Maryland. Not that a layman can’t have an informed, accurate opinion on medical issue, but I would take your (well researched) opinion more seriously if you are the former, though I’m sure that’s a logical fallacy.

  123. @Cagey Beast
    If people are less hesitant to get tested early, they don't wait until they're very sick before going to their doctor or the hospital.

    If people are less hesitant to get tested early, they don’t wait until they’re very sick before going to their doctor or the hospital.

    They should wait until they’re very sick unless early intervention is correlated with survival.

  124. @Grace Jones
    Urns in Wuhan far exceed death toll, raising more questions about China’s tally
    A single mortuary has had 5,000 urns delivered over the past two days, double the city's reported coronavirus death toll
    http://shanghaiist.com/2020/03/27/urns-in-wuhan-far-exceed-death-toll-raising-more-questions-about-chinas-tally/

    China does have a lot of old people. They aren’t going to just stop dying.

  125. @Another Canadian
    Same in Toronto. We were talking about this new virus back when the U.S. was only paying attention to impeaching Trump. Chinese-Canadians in Ontario were enforcing a 14-day quarantine on people coming from China in early January. This was an informal process of picking up the Chinese traveler at Pearson Airport and escorting him to quarantine and following up daily with whatever he needed. I think this informal early intervention by the Chinese community in Canada made a difference in keeping the coronavirus from getting started as quickly as in the U.S.

    That's history. It looks like both the U.S. and Canada are now on the curve of deaths doubling every three days, it's just that Canada is lagging behind the U.S.

    It looks like both the U.S. and Canada are now on the curve of deaths doubling every three days,

    Canada had 29 deaths over March 25, 26, and 27 and then 34 deaths over March 28, 29, and 30. That’s a 17% increase.

    The United States had 915 deaths over March 25, 26, and 27 and 1,479 over March 28, 29, and 30. That’s a 62% increase.

    • Replies: @Another Canadian
    Your death numbers for Canada are out of whack. March 25-30 was 29, 37, 53, 60, 63, 79, today we had 89 by 11 a.m.
  126. @Buffalo Joe
    John, not to be rude, but have you ever been to Toronto? It is a huge city with a population of nearly 3 million, making it slightly larger than Chicago.

    The dense settlement around Chicago has about 8.4 million people in it. That around Toronto, which now extends as far as Hamilton, has just north of 6 million. Toronto’s bigger than any American metropolis other than New York, Los Angeles, and Chicago.

    • Replies: @Buffalo Joe
    Art, thank you for the extra details.
  127. @Reg Cæsar

    What Is Canada Doing Right?
     
    What is the Central African Republic doing right?

    Central African Republic
    Confirmed: 3
    Deaths: 0
    Recovered: 0
    Active: 3


    https://www.arcgis.com/apps/opsdashboard/index.html#/bda7594740fd40299423467b48e9ecf6
     

    Central African Republic
    Confirmed: 3
    Deaths: 0
    Recovered: 0
    Active: 3

    C-A-R! C-A-R! C-A-R!

    Africa is a great test of this. Africa has zero chance of mitigating this in any significant way, nor of providing adequate health care. They’ve got the weather in their favor. But that’s it. So it will be pretty much a “let it rip” scenario.

    No doubt Covid-19 will “kill” millions of Africans.

    But then guess what:

    The heroic women of Africa will rally with their wombs! … and defeat this racist, colonialist attack by the “white” man.

    You’ll look at the demographics and population of Africa in a few years and they’ll be no indication Covid-19 was an issue.

    • Replies: @YetAnotherAnon
    "You’ll look at the demographics and population of Africa in a few years and they’ll be no indication Covid-19 was an issue."

    I believe the population of Ethiopia has more than doubled since we all put our hands in our pockets for Live Aid.

    The iconoclastic Irish (now-unemployable, if he's still writing he really should be at Unz) journalist Kevin Myers put it like this in 2008. Admittedly since then the Chinese have laid hands on Africa, so there are actually some competent people doing things in Ethiopia now.

    https://web.archive.org/web/20101101172336/http://www.independent.ie:80/opinion/columnists/kevin-myers/africa-is-giving-nothing-to-anyone--apart-from-aids-1430428.html


    "Please, please, you self-righteously wrathful, spare me mention of our own Famine, with this or that lazy analogy. There is no comparison. Within 20 years of the Famine, the Irish population was down by 30pc. Over the equivalent period, thanks to western food, the Mercedes 10-wheel truck and the Lockheed Hercules, Ethiopia's has more than doubled.

    Alas, that wretched country is not alone in its madness. Somewhere, over the rainbow, lies Somalia, another fine land of violent, Kalashnikov-toting, khat-chewing, girl-circumcising, permanently tumescent layabouts.

    Indeed, we now have almost an entire continent of sexually hyperactive indigents, with tens of millions of people who only survive because of help from the outside world.

    This dependency has not stimulated political prudence or commonsense. Indeed, voodoo idiocy seems to be in the ascendant, with the next president of South Africa being a firm believer in the efficacy of a little tap water on the post-coital penis as a sure preventative against infection. Needless to say, poverty, hunger and societal meltdown have not prevented idiotic wars involving Tigre, Uganda, Congo, Sudan, Somalia, Eritrea etcetera.

    Broad brush-strokes, to be sure. But broad brush-strokes are often the way that history paints its gaudier, if more decisive, chapters. Japan, China, Russia, Korea, Poland, Germany, Vietnam, Laos and Cambodia in the 20th century have endured worse broad brush-strokes than almost any part of Africa.

    They are now -- one way or another -- virtually all giving aid to or investing in Africa, whereas Africa, with its vast savannahs and its lush pastures, is giving almost nothing to anyone, apart from AIDS.

    Meanwhile, Africa's peoples are outstripping their resources, and causing catastrophic ecological degradation. By 2050, the population of Ethiopia will be 177 million: The equivalent of France, Germany and Benelux today, but located on the parched and increasingly protein-free wastelands of the Great Rift Valley.

    So, how much sense does it make for us actively to increase the adult population of what is already a vastly over-populated, environmentally devastated and economically dependent country?"
     

    Don't be mealy-mouthed, Mr Myers - tell us what you really think.
    , @Rob McX

    No doubt Covid-19 will “kill” millions of Africans.

    But then guess what:

    The heroic women of Africa will rally with their wombs! … and defeat this racist, colonialist attack by the “white” man.

    You’ll look at the demographics and population of Africa in a few years and they’ll be no indication Covid-19 was an issue.
     

    Right. Nothing's going to stop Africa from pumping out more of its chief product, i.e. Africans. As YetAnotherAnon points out, Ethiopa has more than doubled its population since the famine that so exercised the emotions of whites in the mid-80s.

    On the other hand, the economic fallout from this epidemic will will result in many white couples postponing or abandoning their plans to have families. Its demographic impact for us will be real and permanent.

    , @Harold

    They’ve got the weather in their favor. But that’s it.
     
    That and age. The Central African Republic has a median age of 17.6 years.
  128. @Jack D
    I wouldn't know. We've been doing the online grocery ordering thing. It's more expensive, they either don't have a lot of the stuff or else propose unsuitable substitutions and I'd rather be picking out my own bananas but as between getting the best quality produce and not exposing myself to an epidemic, I choose the latter. When I complained to instacart about a couple of things they credited me and did not quibble, but it was the first time I complained.

    My chances are fairly good (if not perfect) but we are the lifeline to my 97 year old mother in law so I really don't want to be responsible for killing the old dame in order to pick out my own tomatoes. I miss going to the store but I am hoping that things will calm down in a few weeks so that the possibility of death/possibility of getting a ripe melon risk/reward ratio will be more in balance.

    so that the possibility of death/possibility of getting a ripe melon risk/reward ratio will be more in balance.

    A ripe melon? Where in hell outside a farmer’s market can you ever find a ripe melon anymore?

    I might risk kissing a virus infected person in exchange for a truly ripe peach.

  129. @DanHessinMD
    Paleo Liberal --

    You are referring to this paper:
    Sajadi et al. (2020) Temperature and Latitude Analysis to Predict Potential Spread and Seasonality for COVID-19

    https://papers.ssrn.com/sol3/papers.cfm?abstract_id=3550308

    My sense is that the virus
    (1) does not thrive in high heat and humidity
    (2) is killed in outdoor areas when the temperature drops below freezing.

    Hence the sweet spot: As close to freezing as possible without going below freezing. This means colder climes have their peaks still ahead of them.

    Thanks for the link. This is exactly what I was referring to.

    So yes, that does get me a bit worried. I am in southern Wisconsin. Chicago and Detroit are having some nasty outbreaks, spreading into Milwaukee and Madison now. The weather is getting into the sweet spot.

    • Replies: @DanHessinMD
    Yes, you are entering the 'sweet spot' if that study is to be believed. Prepare for Wisconsin to have its bell rung.

    But you can bring great benefit to the people you care about with the many imperfect answers we already have:

    (1) Facemasks
    (2) Hydroxychloroquine
    (3) Indoor humidification
    (4) Sick people quarantine and certainly wear masks.
    (5) Vitamin C and Zinc

    and another tip I would add:

    (6) Avoid large outdoor marches and events in chilly weather. Spain had a women's march. New Orleans had Mardi Gras. New York had ethnic street events. Austria and Colorado had skiing. I think a super-spreader or two at the front of a chilly human procession is what makes this go supernova. My sense is that people exerting themselves outdoors makes them shed more virus. CPAC which was indoors in 70 degree conditions notably did not have a crisis even though it was Feb 26 – 29 and had a ton of hyper-connected types crowded together.

  130. One big problem in all this is that a lot of good but imperfect solutions get lost in the panic.

    We have a lot of very good solutions that were not presented because they are imperfect. But they are very good, especially taken together.

    (1) Facemasks

    (2) Hydroxychloroquine

    (3) Indoor humidification

    (4) Put travel restrictions on problem countries

    (5) Use checkpoints to stop feverish travelers

    (6) Vitamin C and Zinc

    Quiz question: How many of these good but imperfect solutions that are recommonded by the CDC and the World Health Organization? Scroll down for the surprise answer:

    .
    .
    .
    .
    .
    .
    zero!

    Bonus question: How many of these partial solutions have the CDC and the World Health Organization tried to actively discredit? (By my count at least three.)

    Partial solutions are great! You only have to get R0 below 1.0. You don’t need perfection!

    • Replies: @Hippopotamusdrome


    (2) Hydroxychloroquine

     

    Orange man bad. Nevada governor bans malaria drugs for coronavirus patients


    (4) Put travel restrictions on problem countries

     

    Racist LOL.
  131. @Lot
    A problem with masks is you feel like a doofus being the only one wearing one, and also rude for freaking people out.

    I brought one to the store today, couldn’t being myself to put it on. 3 out of about 30 had masks on, 2/5 employees and 1/25 customers.

    Make it compulsory and these issues disappear.

    Traffic was down substantially from late last week’s already low amount. 5:30pm on a weekday was like 5am on a Sunday.

    People have hoarded everything they need now and about half of restaurants that planned on staying open for takeout two weeks ago have given up and closed. The other half are nearly dead too.

    you feel like a doofus being the only one wearing one

    What the actual fuck.

    You’ve been a leader all your life, Lot.

    It’s well past time you admitted it to yourself.

    Wear the mask like you know what you’re doing and other people will naturally follow. It’s even easier this time because you actually do. Can make it without even having to fake it.

    • Replies: @BenKenobi
    No one cared who Lot was until he put on the mask.
  132. @Jack D

    The southernmost tip of Canada is somewhat north of Detroit.
     
    Actually Windsor, Ontario lies directly SOUTH of Detroit. It's about the same latitude as Boston, MA.

    In the case of colds and flu, being indoors is usually considered WORSE than being outdoors (for reasons that are not entirely clear - they know that flu season is winter but they don't 100% understand why - low indoor humidity? people more crowded together?).

    I would say that in the case of Wuhan Virus (or any novel contagious virus), the biggest factor is social distancing. You get outbreaks in places where people don't practice it. Typically there is some big social event where a supercarrier (someone who is shedding virus like crazy) is present and he infects everyone at that event and they all fan out and go home and infect everyone in their circle. There is certain randomness in where the supercarrier lights the fire but also cultural aspects to (lack of) social distancing that keeps it going. In today's NY Times they give the story of a well attended funeral of a black man with 10 kids in Albany, GA that set off a big outbreak. In New Orleans you had people from all over the state attending some event a few weeks ago and when they drove back to their home towns they each set off an epidemic. If you have groups (e.g. Hasidic Jews, ghetto blacks) who are resistant to maintaining social distancing, they are going to keep setting off these fires.

    I am really surprised that the analogy of fire has not been used more. Maybe it is racist or something. If you cut off every ember from a source of fresh fuel and let it burn itself out, a forest fire will go out eventually. If the wind keeps blowing the sparks onto unburned timber, the fire is going to keep spreading. Now it's much easier to put out a fire when it is still a little brush fire but we completely blew that opportunity.

    In New Orleans you had people from all over the state attending some event a few weeks ago and when they drove back to their home towns they each set off an epidemic.

    It seems likely that Mardi Gras had a lot to do with this. The positive tests and deaths in Louisiana are heavily concentrated in New Orleans and in Jefferson Parish, which is basically a suburb of New Orleans and which also hosts Mardi Gras parades. There are numerous large parades on Mardi Gras and the days leading up to it. These are massive gatherings of people from all over the U.S. and even other parts of the world.

    So, it’s not clear that it was a case of people from all over the State of Louisiana returning home and setting off epidemics. Outside of the New Orleans area, Louisiana may not be severely hard hit.

  133. HA says:
    @DanHessinMD
    Paleo Liberal --

    You are referring to this paper:
    Sajadi et al. (2020) Temperature and Latitude Analysis to Predict Potential Spread and Seasonality for COVID-19

    https://papers.ssrn.com/sol3/papers.cfm?abstract_id=3550308

    My sense is that the virus
    (1) does not thrive in high heat and humidity
    (2) is killed in outdoor areas when the temperature drops below freezing.

    Hence the sweet spot: As close to freezing as possible without going below freezing. This means colder climes have their peaks still ahead of them.

    “My sense is that the virus
    (1) does not thrive in high heat and humidity
    (2) is killed in outdoor areas when the temperature drops below freezing.”

    Oh, so now it just “does not thrive” in high heat and humidity? That’s your “sense”? Huh. That seems a lot more measured than some of your earlier wildly overblown claims, eh? I mean, weren’t you previously assuring us that “In spring and summer, the virus won’t transmit. Yeah, baby!”

    What went wrong? Did you find time at some point to actually read some of those papers you were citing? Because from what I can see, the part about how the “virus won’t transmit” is nothing but some ridiculous exaggeration that you yourself tacked on in an effort to fool anyone dumb enough to buy into your hype.

    Again, for those who continue to insist that we’re totally getting carried away by fear and panic, consider the possibility that one major reason for that is that so many of those who earlier assured us that this would all just disappear on its own are walking back their bravado. The Rudy Gobert approach has been tried time and time again, but it just hasn’t worked out well. I mean, Sweden might still pull it off, but Sweden — like Maine and Vermont — can pull off a lot of stuff the rest of the world can’t for reasons the rest of the world doesn’t even want to mention (though soon even Sweden won’t be able to get away with it), so I’m not putting much weight into that.

    But I guess Bolsonaro can still carry the day. He seems just the kind of guy to understand stochastic differential equations in log-space.

    • Replies: @AnotherDad

    Again, for those who continue to insist that we’re totally getting carried away by fear and panic,
    ...
     
    I think one reason for the divergence of views, is simply that this new Chinese coronavirus is in the "sweet spot" of severity for variance of peoples' reactions to risk and attitudes toward life.

    If this thing was 5 times more lethal, everyone would be on board fighting the plague all out. If it was 5 times less severe it really would be just "a bad flu" and no one would be doing this

    The "it's just the flu" people were nuts, if they meant that in terms of severity. But they aren't wrong about it's basic character and overall effects. It "kills" the old and the sick. Mostly people who, if they didn't die from it, would die from the flu or something else within the next five or ten years.

    I was quite worried about this when i first heard about it. What was going on in Wuhan sounded really bad and i thought "Great, what have the Chinese unleashed on us now!" In mid January, i was back and forth and almost pulled the plug on some international travel in early Feb. that we'd had booked for a couple months, But travelling, when i read about the cluster on the Diamond Princess, and the result--an 80 early old Japanese couple dying ... my worries actually eased. More people have died, but the story remains the same--the elderly. Young people like my kids--the odds are minuscule, and i suspect they are almost all people with serious health problems, probably people who have done stupid stuff like vaping.


    I'm in no sense cheering on old people dying. But it's simply not the same thing as say the Spanish Flu, much less the Black Death, that cut through society like a scythe, killing people in their prime.

    If your entire perspective is only your existence as an individual, and you're in a "target market" then i guess this is super-scary. But i'm a conservative. My life is part of something bigger than me--my family, my nation, my civilization--that existed before me and will--the good Lord willing--continue after me. That's what i care about.

    My dad is in a retirement community in the Seattle area. (Several miles from the place in Kirkland that got hit.) They've got several cases, and he's definitely at risk. I sure don't want him to get it, and even less be killed by it. But ... he's in his 90s, he's lived a good life--great marriage, kids, time with the grandchildren as they grew up. He will die sometime in the next few years. We all go eventually. If he dies from this, it is sad for our family, but hardly the end of the world.

    Me, i've still got a couple/three decades left--i hope. I still have the grandchildren thing to do, and even stuff teach my kids. But if it's my time ... that's unfortunate, a much, much greater loss than my dad, but still not the end of the world.

    My kids are in their 20s. They have their lives yet to lead. They have marriages and children still ahead of them. They are the future. Their lives simple matter much much more.

    If my dad's loss would be a 1, mine would be a 100, but any of my kids' loss would be a million. They are what matters. They are the future. The thread to all that is to come. And this virus--thank goodness--is just not very dangerous to them.
  134. Canada exported its elderly, that’s what. Many of them are here in the southern US because they snowbird here over winter, and they haven’t gone back home yet.

    • Replies: @Cagey Beast
    The Canadian government and insurance companies told these snowbirds to fly home about two weeks ago:

    The Government of Canada is now officially recommending that Canadian travellers abroad return to Canada.
    Posted date : Mar 15, 2020
    https://www.snowbirds.org/news-releases/update-covid-19/
    , @Another Canadian
    They've all gone back home. And they brought the Wuhan coronavirus with them on the drive back from Florida.
  135. @Grace Jones
    Urns in Wuhan far exceed death toll, raising more questions about China’s tally
    A single mortuary has had 5,000 urns delivered over the past two days, double the city's reported coronavirus death toll
    http://shanghaiist.com/2020/03/27/urns-in-wuhan-far-exceed-death-toll-raising-more-questions-about-chinas-tally/

    Cremations means that determining the raise in deaths via burials from photographic reconnaissance would be a hard thing to determine.

    https://www.airspacemag.com/military-aviation/lin-xus-obsession-117339135/?all

  136. @Paleo Liberal
    Thanks for the link. This is exactly what I was referring to.

    So yes, that does get me a bit worried. I am in southern Wisconsin. Chicago and Detroit are having some nasty outbreaks, spreading into Milwaukee and Madison now. The weather is getting into the sweet spot.

    Yes, you are entering the ‘sweet spot’ if that study is to be believed. Prepare for Wisconsin to have its bell rung.

    But you can bring great benefit to the people you care about with the many imperfect answers we already have:

    (1) Facemasks
    (2) Hydroxychloroquine
    (3) Indoor humidification
    (4) Sick people quarantine and certainly wear masks.
    (5) Vitamin C and Zinc

    and another tip I would add:

    (6) Avoid large outdoor marches and events in chilly weather. Spain had a women’s march. New Orleans had Mardi Gras. New York had ethnic street events. Austria and Colorado had skiing. I think a super-spreader or two at the front of a chilly human procession is what makes this go supernova. My sense is that people exerting themselves outdoors makes them shed more virus. CPAC which was indoors in 70 degree conditions notably did not have a crisis even though it was Feb 26 – 29 and had a ton of hyper-connected types crowded together.

    • Replies: @Yojimbo/Zatoichi
    Hold up, CPAC did in fact have a number of attendees that tested positive.

    If bitter cold below freezing helps kill the virus, the opposite is also true. Temperatures that exceed 75, 80, and 90 degrees with high humidity will also kill the virus as well. Spring is beginning to warm up, above 60-65 degrees in many parts of the US. Therefore, it won't be long before 70 degrees and higher humidity is close at hand, which should mean the virus' peaking point.
  137. @Mr McKenna

    What Is Canada Doing Right?
     
    Everything's "paid for" right? Since we cover illegal migrants I assume they do too? But they don't have anywhere near as many, for some reason. Better border controls? (NB: I'm not positing these as reasons.)

    Cigna to waive patient costs for COVID-19 treatment

    Health insurance giant Cigna is waiving patient costs related to COVID-19 treatment.

    Nearly all insurance plans are offering to cover the cost of testing but Cigna joins Aetna and Humana in guaranteeing policyholders are not liable for care related to the pandemic.
     

    Reminds me of how it's best if your un- or under-insured house is destroyed in a Federally-Declared Disaster--they you get the Free Money! If your place was wrecked by an event no one's heard of or cares about, that's on you.

    Mr. McKenna, Isn’t it pretty likely that the reason Canada has far fewer(as a percentage of total population) illegal immigrants, or unaccounted migrants (or whatever the acceptable term is these days) is that it has the USA on it’s southern border, rather than Mexico or another completely failed state? And that most of Canada is too cold for too much of the year to appeal to almost anyone? I guarantee that the reason Canada has fewer illegals do not include border controls, laws or habits of civility.

    Also, Canada admits HUGE numbers of Chinese and Indian (dot) immigrants legally. S many that the old original Canadian ethnic stock will be mostly gone in another couple generations, say 40 years or so. Look for people to be LEAVING Canada, not immigrating.

  138. Anon[369] • Disclaimer says:
    @theMann
    Let me add to your comments as an Economist:

    Cost/Benefit analysis is a common methodology to apply to anything involving use of money. It is usually (mis) used to overstate benefits, while underestimating costs, of major spending events, everything from stadium construction to mass transit. With coronascam, we have an interesting reversal: the one benefit is wildly overstated, and its costs are ignored.


    The stated purpose of lockdowns is to slow the spread of infection, not even stop, just slow the rate of infection. This done so that hospitals don't get overwhelmed. Leaving aside for the moment that there are nowhere near as many infections or deaths as the SARS epidemic of 2010-11, is it really true that lockdowns slow the rate of transmission? Have they in Italy? Did South Korea, Japan, Formosa, Sweden, and Brazil have much worse rates of transmission that lockdown countries? Is a lockdown a quarantine when every grocery store, gas station, pharmacy, and government office has possibly infected people traveling through? Is there even a quantifiable benefit at all? And remember, this is the only benefit. Eat an orange, get some sun, go lie down , might be a better benefit, and a whole lot cheaper.

    Now lets consider the costs.
    1. An unknown, but huge number of unemployed people, of unknown duration, who can't pay bills, including medical bills. So when an long-term unemployed person has a kid die from Scarlet fever this Summer when he can't afford medical bills and delays taking the kid to the emergency room, is that a covid-19 death?
    2. The total wipeout of the tourism industry.
    3. The delay in Spring planting, disruptions in the supply chain, and so forth, causing a real increase in food prices.
    4. The systematic trashing of our Rights and Liberties. This particularly includes: The systematic, and deliberate, persecution of Religious Believers WHICH IS ABSOLUTELY BY DESIGN.
    5. The bankruptcies of untold numbers of businesses, which will be bought up for pennies on the dollar by deep pocket oligarchs.
    6. The massive corruption, and misallocation of resources, in the rich people bailout bill, sorry, fiscal stimulus bill.
    7. The unknown human costs of Police State tactics. My opinion, first Cop gets shot hassling somebody walking their dog, all hell will break loose.

    This is the essence of Coronascam. One very nebulous benefit, unending and massive costs.

    Yeah, the very real damage from the response to the COVID-19 “pandemic” is real and immediate. I’m in my 50’s and was self-employed with an LLC. I’m done. Even if things got totally back to normal by June. No bailout for me and not even a check from the government as I made slightly over the cutoff in earnings. Maybe I can cash out my evaporated 401k and use most of it to cover the penalty for withdrawing it?

    So here I am. I spent yesterday online applying to jobs at Walmart. In the application I said that I’m available to work any day, any shift. Today I’ll apply to CVS, Wegmans, and Amazon.

    I’m not complaining, 95% of the world would love to have my problems.

    • Replies: @Lot
    “ I’m in my 50’s and was self-employed with an LLC. ”

    You probably qualify for expanded unemployment TrumpBux.

    Kevin Drum has a useful summary.

    https://www.motherjones.com/kevin-drum/2020/03/heres-a-quick-primer-on-the-new-expanded-unemployment-benefits/

    You may also qualify for a forgivable loan if you’ve been paying yourself a salary and rent, but probably the unemployment is a better bet.

    From what I can tell, the small business forgivable loan is potentially huge for businesses and equal to 2.5 months of rent and payroll based on the average of the prior 12 months.

    In other words, if you had 10k in such expenses between 3/2019 and 2/2020, you can get a “loan” that is 25k for meeting those expenses from 2/15 to 4/30/20. This means in effect the feds cover your costs completely, and you don’t save any money firing people or not paying business rent.
  139. HA says:
    @dearieme
    if the people in charge had taken this MORE seriously earlier on (in particular, the Communist apparatchiks of Wuhan) we could all be taking it far less seriously now.

    I suspect that you're absolutely right. It doesn't, however, mean that we should tell voices criticising the present state of play to pipe down. The chumps who were wrong originally are just as capable of being wrong now.

    “It doesn’t, however, mean that we should tell voices criticising the present state of play to pipe down.”

    I’m not suggesting that. I still hold out hope that they will ultimately be proven right about this particular virus (as opposed to all the others that China will release in the coming decades that I doubt we’re going to do anything to stop, even though now is the optimal time to start taking care of that).

    But they’re going to need to come up with better arguments. Relying on Twitter personalities who look at empty hospital parking lots and say “Ha! I knew it was a scam!” won’t get you far. Same goes with asking why we just can’t sit on our hands until there’s millions of dead in the streets, or just let this pass over us the way we did with Hong Kong flu, or else, why we can’t we shrug this off the way we calmly shrug off the millions of car deaths that happen. It just shows you haven’t been paying attention.

    Admittedly, it’s hard to seem trustworthy about your novel unproven theories on how any good epidemiological model must take into account the fact that viruses become less deadly with time (because you really, really, want that to be the case, and that’s apparently good enough) when you’ve spent a significant portion of the interview apologizing for the dumb math error that downsized your projections of total US deaths to 500. It’s hard to come back from that, yeah. But that’s the problem when you’re dealing with exponential processes. Being off by a factor of two or three means being off by two or three orders of magnitude so that those uncertainties become really, really bothersome. (Moreover, given that deadly car wrecks do not exhibit exponential growth, that’s not really the right comparison paradigm.)

    How can anyone blame people for thinking that the so-called panic scenarios the “standard models” are predicting might actually be more liikely to be correct if that kind of performance is best you’ve got by way of opposition? Maybe if the coronahoax boosters had gotten their own ducks in a row earlier (just like those idiots in Wuhan who fumbled their initial approach to this virus), people would take them more seriously now. But all that leads to the suspicion that you probably should be taking it seriously at the earliest possible opportunity. And so here we are.

  140. @AnotherDad

    Central African Republic
    Confirmed: 3
    Deaths: 0
    Recovered: 0
    Active: 3
     
    C-A-R! C-A-R! C-A-R!

    Africa is a great test of this. Africa has zero chance of mitigating this in any significant way, nor of providing adequate health care. They've got the weather in their favor. But that's it. So it will be pretty much a "let it rip" scenario.

    No doubt Covid-19 will "kill" millions of Africans.

    But then guess what:

    The heroic women of Africa will rally with their wombs! ... and defeat this racist, colonialist attack by the "white" man.

    You'll look at the demographics and population of Africa in a few years and they'll be no indication Covid-19 was an issue.

    “You’ll look at the demographics and population of Africa in a few years and they’ll be no indication Covid-19 was an issue.”

    I believe the population of Ethiopia has more than doubled since we all put our hands in our pockets for Live Aid.

    The iconoclastic Irish (now-unemployable, if he’s still writing he really should be at Unz) journalist Kevin Myers put it like this in 2008. Admittedly since then the Chinese have laid hands on Africa, so there are actually some competent people doing things in Ethiopia now.

    https://web.archive.org/web/20101101172336/http://www.independent.ie:80/opinion/columnists/kevin-myers/africa-is-giving-nothing-to-anyone–apart-from-aids-1430428.html

    “Please, please, you self-righteously wrathful, spare me mention of our own Famine, with this or that lazy analogy. There is no comparison. Within 20 years of the Famine, the Irish population was down by 30pc. Over the equivalent period, thanks to western food, the Mercedes 10-wheel truck and the Lockheed Hercules, Ethiopia’s has more than doubled.

    Alas, that wretched country is not alone in its madness. Somewhere, over the rainbow, lies Somalia, another fine land of violent, Kalashnikov-toting, khat-chewing, girl-circumcising, permanently tumescent layabouts.

    Indeed, we now have almost an entire continent of sexually hyperactive indigents, with tens of millions of people who only survive because of help from the outside world.

    This dependency has not stimulated political prudence or commonsense. Indeed, voodoo idiocy seems to be in the ascendant, with the next president of South Africa being a firm believer in the efficacy of a little tap water on the post-coital penis as a sure preventative against infection. Needless to say, poverty, hunger and societal meltdown have not prevented idiotic wars involving Tigre, Uganda, Congo, Sudan, Somalia, Eritrea etcetera.

    Broad brush-strokes, to be sure. But broad brush-strokes are often the way that history paints its gaudier, if more decisive, chapters. Japan, China, Russia, Korea, Poland, Germany, Vietnam, Laos and Cambodia in the 20th century have endured worse broad brush-strokes than almost any part of Africa.

    They are now — one way or another — virtually all giving aid to or investing in Africa, whereas Africa, with its vast savannahs and its lush pastures, is giving almost nothing to anyone, apart from AIDS.

    Meanwhile, Africa’s peoples are outstripping their resources, and causing catastrophic ecological degradation. By 2050, the population of Ethiopia will be 177 million: The equivalent of France, Germany and Benelux today, but located on the parched and increasingly protein-free wastelands of the Great Rift Valley.

    So, how much sense does it make for us actively to increase the adult population of what is already a vastly over-populated, environmentally devastated and economically dependent country?”

    Don’t be mealy-mouthed, Mr Myers – tell us what you really think.

  141. @Desiderius

    you feel like a doofus being the only one wearing one
     
    What the actual fuck.

    You've been a leader all your life, Lot.

    It's well past time you admitted it to yourself.

    Wear the mask like you know what you're doing and other people will naturally follow. It's even easier this time because you actually do. Can make it without even having to fake it.

    No one cared who Lot was until he put on the mask.

    • LOL: Desiderius
  142. Unrelated.

    The French team at the origine of chloroquine treatment has tested 55 k persons. 5% are postive. They say treatment is not suited for intubated patients but does miracle in the first three days. It could also be prophylactic. They have only one death of an 84 yo man out of 2700 persons treated since 3 days.

    In this video he also presents his team of professors and physicians (in French)

    Ps : yes he didn’t invented the chloroquine but he had the idea to use this to treat micro-virus 10 years ago and it was implemented by Chinese. So he is at the origine of this alleged treatment.

    • Thanks: Cagey Beast
    • Replies: @Lot
    Trump certainly has a “type” with his favored doctors.

    https://image.syracuse.com/home/syr-media/width600/img/us-news/photo/2018/05/01/harold-bornstein-ee3a654059def385.jpg
  143. Quebec has had two or three times the infection rate as Ontario, so I don’t think it’s the weather. Their spring break is a couple of weeks earlier than Ontario’s, so I’ve seen that cited as a factor.

    One possibility is that Canadians don’t travel as much domestically as Americans, due to high ticket prices under an airline duopoly and a lack of warm weather destinations.

  144. @theMann
    I would imagine that the chief difference between Canada and the USA is that their Medical Community is less riven with Incompetence and outright fraud than the USA. Or alternately, that they just spend more time outside - also true of Californians vs. New Yorkers.

    In the meantime:

    https://www.anti-empire.com/german-infectologist-decimates-covid-doomsday-cult-in-open-letter-to-merkel/

    https://www.lewrockwell.com/2020/03/no_author/americans-will-have-to-cure-the-coronavirus-epidemic-on-their-own/

    https://www.thegatewaypundit.com/2020/03/cbs-news-caught-using-footage-from-an-italian-hospital-to-describe-conditions-in-new-york-city-video/

    https://www.lewrockwell.com/2020/03/jon-rappoport/corona-the-case-number-game/

    https://techstartups.com/2020/03/28/dr-vladimir-zelenko-now-treated-699-coronavirus-patients-100-success-using-hydroxychloroquine-sulfate-zinc-z-pak-update/

    https://www.dailymail.co.uk/debate/article-8163587/PETER-HITCHENS-Great-Panic-foolish-freedom-broken-economy-crippled.html

    https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=ZEr4rmjwd0g

    I could link a hundred more articles, but seriously, would you read them?


    The Corona virus "pandemic" is a fraud. It is being used to deliberately drive a totalitarian agenda. And those of you falling for it are complete and utter fools. This will be known today, tomorrow, and for the rest of human history.

    Mr. Mann, You are correct in your assertion that the Coronavirus® panic and government response is a fraud. I am not so sure that all the duped are complete and utter fools, however. It seems to me that the propaganda, or psy-ops, scam (or whatever the right term is) has been going on for so long that otherwise intelligent people are completely conditioned. They have grown so used to wearing blinders that they not only don’t notice the blinders, they resent that you do notice them.

    We are in for a real screwing here. A lot of the Isteve and Unz readers are going to be damned surprised when they realize (too late) how badly they have been fooled, and for how long.

    • Replies: @Testing12
    Next up: "Alt right bloggers who somehow survived the brutal COVID pandemic join forces with Antifa in demanding immediate implementation of ID2020" brought to you by most compassionate, ethical philanthropist of our time, Bill Gates
  145. OT:
    Finally we have verifiable proof that Russia offered help to Trump and he accepted it:

    Russian Covid-19 plane aid to US: Putin asked Trump if he needed help & he accepted, Kremlin spokesman says
    https://www.rt.com/news/484623-russia-coronavirus-aid-us/

    Back during the Cold War, this would have been accepted as a gesture of goodwill. Today, about half of America will fall over itself to make memes, editorials, YouTube videos and tweets about how Russia can go f**k itself. Stephen Colbert will likely do a naughty skit featuring Putin sodomising Trump with a toy transport plane. CBS still is the “Tiffany network” after all.

  146. @theMann
    I would imagine that the chief difference between Canada and the USA is that their Medical Community is less riven with Incompetence and outright fraud than the USA. Or alternately, that they just spend more time outside - also true of Californians vs. New Yorkers.

    In the meantime:

    https://www.anti-empire.com/german-infectologist-decimates-covid-doomsday-cult-in-open-letter-to-merkel/

    https://www.lewrockwell.com/2020/03/no_author/americans-will-have-to-cure-the-coronavirus-epidemic-on-their-own/

    https://www.thegatewaypundit.com/2020/03/cbs-news-caught-using-footage-from-an-italian-hospital-to-describe-conditions-in-new-york-city-video/

    https://www.lewrockwell.com/2020/03/jon-rappoport/corona-the-case-number-game/

    https://techstartups.com/2020/03/28/dr-vladimir-zelenko-now-treated-699-coronavirus-patients-100-success-using-hydroxychloroquine-sulfate-zinc-z-pak-update/

    https://www.dailymail.co.uk/debate/article-8163587/PETER-HITCHENS-Great-Panic-foolish-freedom-broken-economy-crippled.html

    https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=ZEr4rmjwd0g

    I could link a hundred more articles, but seriously, would you read them?


    The Corona virus "pandemic" is a fraud. It is being used to deliberately drive a totalitarian agenda. And those of you falling for it are complete and utter fools. This will be known today, tomorrow, and for the rest of human history.

    The Corona virus “pandemic” is a fraud. It is being used to deliberately drive a totalitarian agenda.

    I would simply add that it’s also being used as cover to reset equity pricing and permit Big Finance to safely engage in another 5 to 10 years of financial shenanigans.

    I am sure many of the market makers were well positioned for the recent downturn. They made billions on put options and stock shorts that they will use to buy up distressed assets for pennies on the dollar.

    The best part about using the virus for cover is that the downturn can be entirely blamed on the virus. This precludes the formation of any movements like Occupy Wall Street, which formed in the wake of the 2008-09 financial crisis. Just like 9/11, “…no one could have imagined.”

    Indeed.

    • Agree: Mark G.
  147. @Reg Cæsar
    Selfish, greedy, armed and imperialistic Americans after one our many invasions, this time of another régime with a "universally-run system":


    https://www.ocregister.com/wp-content/uploads/migration/kpi/kpii61-06ddaycemetary2large.jpg?w=620

    Canada has its share of military cemeteries in France too. Those graves belong to men who’d just escaped the Depression. We will never know but I’d guess the majority of them were for universal healthcare as well.

    • Replies: @Reg Cæsar

    Those graves belong to men who’d just escaped the Depression. We will never know but I’d guess the majority of them were for universal healthcare as well.
     
    Neither Canada nor the UK had it then. Germany was closest. So we joined the wrong side?
  148. @Ano4
    There will be thousands to tens of thousands of deaths in Canada, but it won't hundreds of thousands as in USA.

    Canada is smaller and more sparsely populated.

    Canadian Health System is more functional than in the USA.

    Canada has imposed a near lockdown on the majority of its urban areas, the gradual increase in the severity of the isolation measures being slowly but surely ramped up for three weeks already.

    Canada has urged its citizens to stay home and the majority of people headed this advice.

    Tomas Pueyo charts and Ron Unz calculations convincingly demonstrate that the earlier the social distancing, isolation and lockdown measures are imposed, the lower the infection and death rate.

    Canada acted earlier and in a more rational and thorough manner.

    Hence the lower rate of infection and lower death rates.

    However, my opinion is that Canadian government should have acted even earlier.

    One of things Canadian government should have done earlier is stopping incoming travelers from abroad and closing the borders except for vital supplies transportation.

    But it is too late now to digress about it.

    Canadian Health System is more functional than in the USA.

    I would add that, based on cursory Googling, Canada’s native pharmaceutical industry is minuscule compared to the US’.

    Because that industry segment is much smaller, the Canadian health system has far less financial pressure to skew the CV-19 numbers in a fashion that could lead to billions in profits for the pharma industry.

  149. @Neoconned
    1 of my cousin's in laws died in Greater NOLA. From what my cousin told me he was mid 50s, worked out etc. I don't get it either.

    Considering free market types like to scream murder at Canada's health care system they seem to be doing a better job at containing this garbage than the incompetents and cluster fu--s running our health care system.

    As can be seen: de regulation and free market incentives DON'T WORK AS PLANNED.

    I also beg to differ with Dr. Dan Hessen but like the Drudge headline had the other day Louisiana had the fastest growth rate "on planet Earth" THIS WEEK.....

    Its so stinking humid here i call it "Satan's Crotch".....the weather is also weird this year....normally its cold as hell right now and pouring rain....instead ita VERY HUMID but NOT raining(hasnt rained significantly in a month) so i dunno if that has anything to do w it....but if humidity is a mitigation factor in the spread of covid19.....you sure as hell could have fooled me down here in "ground zero".....

    Something else though.....ive noticed Doordash & delivery services are popular in other parts of the country.....NOT HERE....ppl are OBSESSED w their vehicles here. White folks, blacks, doesn't matter....they love running the roads and put putting around....im weird, i hate cars and hate going out....

    If you think L.A. or Houston has a car culture come to Greater NOLA. People use mass transit in the city but elsewhere NOBODY DOES....a common phrase here is "gotta have wheels" and "i love my car"

    Considering free market types like to scream murder at Canada’s health care system they seem to be doing a better job at containing this garbage than the incompetents and cluster fu–s running our health care system.

    Where do you get the idea that Canada’s healthcare system has anything to do with New Orleans’ popularity with tourists in mid-to-late February? Or with anything else relevant to “containing this garbage”?

    • Replies: @Neoconned
    Mr. Tillman: Steve said Canada had a fifth the rate we had.....the point i was trying to make was that their health care system is derided as "arthtritic" and backwards by the Sean Hannity types "because socialism"....

    My question was....if they're so backwards why is their spread rate worse than ours?

    Sorry about the ambiguity....
  150. @theMann
    I would imagine that the chief difference between Canada and the USA is that their Medical Community is less riven with Incompetence and outright fraud than the USA. Or alternately, that they just spend more time outside - also true of Californians vs. New Yorkers.

    In the meantime:

    https://www.anti-empire.com/german-infectologist-decimates-covid-doomsday-cult-in-open-letter-to-merkel/

    https://www.lewrockwell.com/2020/03/no_author/americans-will-have-to-cure-the-coronavirus-epidemic-on-their-own/

    https://www.thegatewaypundit.com/2020/03/cbs-news-caught-using-footage-from-an-italian-hospital-to-describe-conditions-in-new-york-city-video/

    https://www.lewrockwell.com/2020/03/jon-rappoport/corona-the-case-number-game/

    https://techstartups.com/2020/03/28/dr-vladimir-zelenko-now-treated-699-coronavirus-patients-100-success-using-hydroxychloroquine-sulfate-zinc-z-pak-update/

    https://www.dailymail.co.uk/debate/article-8163587/PETER-HITCHENS-Great-Panic-foolish-freedom-broken-economy-crippled.html

    https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=ZEr4rmjwd0g

    I could link a hundred more articles, but seriously, would you read them?


    The Corona virus "pandemic" is a fraud. It is being used to deliberately drive a totalitarian agenda. And those of you falling for it are complete and utter fools. This will be known today, tomorrow, and for the rest of human history.

    Will you continue to believe in that if you become hospitalized and they tell you you have the virus? Or will you refuse to be treated for the fraudulent ailment?

  151. @Anon
    Canada exported its elderly, that's what. Many of them are here in the southern US because they snowbird here over winter, and they haven't gone back home yet.

    The Canadian government and insurance companies told these snowbirds to fly home about two weeks ago:

    The Government of Canada is now officially recommending that Canadian travellers abroad return to Canada.
    Posted date : Mar 15, 2020
    https://www.snowbirds.org/news-releases/update-covid-19/

  152. @Patrick Sullivan
    Same thing Alaska, Wyoming, Idaho, the Dakotas and Montana are doing right. Population density, weather, demographics.

    I see you haven’t been to Vancouver, Calgary, Edmonton, Winnipeg, Toronto, GTA, or Montreal lately.

  153. @Mr. Anon
    How do you know your grocery order isn't being packed by a symptomless super-spreader? Of course, I'm sure he wears gloves. Just as I'm sure he still wipes his nose with the back of his hand, scratches his nose, and rubs his eyes............all with the gloves on.

    You don’t, but you can put on gloves, either wash or wipe off everything refrigerated with a disinfectant wipe before you put it away, then throw away the gloves and wash your hands. The non-refrigerated stuff you should leave undisturbed as long as possible and the viruses will fade on their own. It’s not zero risk but I think it’s less than the risk of being in a supermarket with hundreds of other people.

  154. Anecdotal story from 53 year-old NJ woman who had Corona, had hydroxychloroquine as part of her treatment regime and recovered:

    COVID-19 patient successfully treated with untested drug in N.J. provides a ray [of] hope

    https://www.nj.com/opinion/2020/03/covid-19-patient-successfully-treated-with-unproven-drug-in-nj-is-a-ray-hope-opinion.html

    1) It would be very helpful to hear from the attending physician.
    2) Any lab work/studies that were done on the viral progression would also be immensely helpful.

    Of course, if you go to the NJ.com homepage, this ‘hopeful’ story is at the very bottom of the “Latest” section. One has to scroll down three or four screens to see the header.

    The top of the “Latest” section?

    Newark cops shut down 15 businesses, ticketed 161 people in 1 night for coronavirus lockdown violations

    I’m sure it’s just a big coincidence. Why would we want to give anyone hope?

    I mean, no one ever ran on “HOPE” as a successful political strategy, did they?

  155. @DanHessinMD
    Yes, you are entering the 'sweet spot' if that study is to be believed. Prepare for Wisconsin to have its bell rung.

    But you can bring great benefit to the people you care about with the many imperfect answers we already have:

    (1) Facemasks
    (2) Hydroxychloroquine
    (3) Indoor humidification
    (4) Sick people quarantine and certainly wear masks.
    (5) Vitamin C and Zinc

    and another tip I would add:

    (6) Avoid large outdoor marches and events in chilly weather. Spain had a women's march. New Orleans had Mardi Gras. New York had ethnic street events. Austria and Colorado had skiing. I think a super-spreader or two at the front of a chilly human procession is what makes this go supernova. My sense is that people exerting themselves outdoors makes them shed more virus. CPAC which was indoors in 70 degree conditions notably did not have a crisis even though it was Feb 26 – 29 and had a ton of hyper-connected types crowded together.

    Hold up, CPAC did in fact have a number of attendees that tested positive.

    If bitter cold below freezing helps kill the virus, the opposite is also true. Temperatures that exceed 75, 80, and 90 degrees with high humidity will also kill the virus as well. Spring is beginning to warm up, above 60-65 degrees in many parts of the US. Therefore, it won’t be long before 70 degrees and higher humidity is close at hand, which should mean the virus’ peaking point.

  156. Canada recently closed the border with the US, that’s one thing that they’re doing right. However, they do have a high number of Chinese immigrants in both Toronto and especially Vancouver (which is of course close to Seattle, one of the Virus’s hotspots). Would be interesting to compare COVID-19 infections in Vancouver to see if they’ve been significantly affected.

  157. @Cagey Beast
    The stock market was itching to crash even without COVID-19.

    The stock market? Government mandated closures of businesses and stay-at-home orders are what are causing small businesses to fail and causing massive unemployment.

  158. Canada is a similar size to the US but 1/10th the population. Therefore it’s following the same (delayed) curve as the more rural US states.

    People don’t understand exponential growth. Canadian cases are still growing exponentially, just took a lot longer for the growth to start.

    Mortality as a percent of population at this particular instant is a useless metric. A metric that increases over time.

  159. @DanHessinMD
    Neoconned -- You had a million people crowded onto the streets of New Orleans in *February* for Mardi Gras culminating in a big city-wide mosh pit on Feb. 25th. That is believed to be the origin of Coronavirus there.

    The relevant weather for New Orleans is the weather in February culminating on Feb. 25th (fat Tuesday), because that is Mardi Gras time there. Plenty of highs in the fifties and lows and the forties at that time if you look at the monthly weather in New Orleans.

    I admit I am surprised that New Orleans has had it as bad as they have. It appears that large crowds outdoors in chilly weather is phenomenally bad and this was the thing in the Big Easy all of January and February. Still Louisiana has 20x few cases than New York which is surely significant.

    Mexico has had very few cases, and the many tropical countries have done well, so warmth and humidity still seems very helpful.

    But it may be that the temperature and humidity points for protection may be higher than I thought. Also helpful is not the same as being a cure. Humidity and higher temperatures are surely helpful in terms of reducing tranmission and aiding the respiratory immune system, but they are not a cure by themselves.

    You had a million people crowded onto the streets of New Orleans in *February* for Mardi Gras

    Also, you had black-friday size mobs at the grocery store getting a one year supply of hand sanitizer and toilet paper in anticipation of the zombie apocylypse.

  160. @DanHessinMD
    One big problem in all this is that a lot of good but imperfect solutions get lost in the panic.

    We have a lot of very good solutions that were not presented because they are imperfect. But they are very good, especially taken together.

    (1) Facemasks

    (2) Hydroxychloroquine

    (3) Indoor humidification

    (4) Put travel restrictions on problem countries

    (5) Use checkpoints to stop feverish travelers

    (6) Vitamin C and Zinc

    Quiz question: How many of these good but imperfect solutions that are recommonded by the CDC and the World Health Organization? Scroll down for the surprise answer:

    .
    .
    .
    .
    .
    .
    zero!

    Bonus question: How many of these partial solutions have the CDC and the World Health Organization tried to actively discredit? (By my count at least three.)

    Partial solutions are great! You only have to get R0 below 1.0. You don't need perfection!

    (2) Hydroxychloroquine

    Orange man bad. Nevada governor bans malaria drugs for coronavirus patients

    (4) Put travel restrictions on problem countries

    Racist LOL.

  161. @Unicephalon40D
    You need to grow a thicker skin.

    Times like these, nobody looks askance at a guy wearing a surgical mask or N95 respirator. And, even if they did, who gives a damn?

    “Times like these, nobody looks askance at a guy wearing a surgical mask or N95 respirator [sic].”

    I laugh in your general direction every time. I also laugh when people give me a ten-foot berth as we pass.

    CoronaHoax is unmasking [pun] all the bedwetting ninnies among us.

    • Agree: Federalist, Testing12
  162. @Neoconned
    1 of my cousin's in laws died in Greater NOLA. From what my cousin told me he was mid 50s, worked out etc. I don't get it either.

    Considering free market types like to scream murder at Canada's health care system they seem to be doing a better job at containing this garbage than the incompetents and cluster fu--s running our health care system.

    As can be seen: de regulation and free market incentives DON'T WORK AS PLANNED.

    I also beg to differ with Dr. Dan Hessen but like the Drudge headline had the other day Louisiana had the fastest growth rate "on planet Earth" THIS WEEK.....

    Its so stinking humid here i call it "Satan's Crotch".....the weather is also weird this year....normally its cold as hell right now and pouring rain....instead ita VERY HUMID but NOT raining(hasnt rained significantly in a month) so i dunno if that has anything to do w it....but if humidity is a mitigation factor in the spread of covid19.....you sure as hell could have fooled me down here in "ground zero".....

    Something else though.....ive noticed Doordash & delivery services are popular in other parts of the country.....NOT HERE....ppl are OBSESSED w their vehicles here. White folks, blacks, doesn't matter....they love running the roads and put putting around....im weird, i hate cars and hate going out....

    If you think L.A. or Houston has a car culture come to Greater NOLA. People use mass transit in the city but elsewhere NOBODY DOES....a common phrase here is "gotta have wheels" and "i love my car"

    …the weather is also weird this year….normally its cold as hell right now and pouring rain…

    You’re saying that it’s normally “cold as hell” in New Orleans in late March?

    • Replies: @S. Anonyia
    Don’t know what he’s talking about because it’s not. There will be like one cold spell in late March. New Orleans sits so low it’s always warmer and more humid than the surrounding Gulf Coast cities like Biloxi, Mobile, Pensacola etc.
    , @Neoconned
    I apologize for the ambiguity....

    Cold for me is 30 to 50F w rain.....

    I'm used to 100F w 95% humidity....(literally).....it wreaks havoc on my joints and the various healed broke bones i got as a dumb kid....

    Don't even let me tell you about the horrible allergies down here....
  163. @Reg Cæsar

    What Is Canada Doing Right?
     
    What is the Central African Republic doing right?

    Central African Republic
    Confirmed: 3
    Deaths: 0
    Recovered: 0
    Active: 3


    https://www.arcgis.com/apps/opsdashboard/index.html#/bda7594740fd40299423467b48e9ecf6
     

    Yeah, just like the Central African Republic:

    (This is dated January 29th of this year)

  164. @Art Deco
    It looks like both the U.S. and Canada are now on the curve of deaths doubling every three days,

    Canada had 29 deaths over March 25, 26, and 27 and then 34 deaths over March 28, 29, and 30. That's a 17% increase.

    The United States had 915 deaths over March 25, 26, and 27 and 1,479 over March 28, 29, and 30. That's a 62% increase.

    Your death numbers for Canada are out of whack. March 25-30 was 29, 37, 53, 60, 63, 79, today we had 89 by 11 a.m.

    • Replies: @Art Deco
    I made use of the data on Worldometers. Take up your complaint with them.
  165. @Cagey Beast
    It would be fair to compare the state of Maine (pop. 1,338,404) to the neighbouring Canadian provinces of New Brunswick (pop. 747,101) and Nova Scotia (pop. 977,457).

    - New Brunswick has 68 confirmed cases, 0 deaths
    - Nova Scotia has 127 confirmed cases, 0 deaths
    - Maine has 275 confirmed cases, 3 deaths

    Newer figures:

    • Replies: @Andrew
    Amazing, not a single person using the words "per capita" or population normalized

    US - 330M - 208520 cases, 4,616 deaths
    US outside NY Metro - 299M - 99,189 cases, 2251 deaths
    Canada - 38M - 9,547 cases, 108 deaths
    Quebec - 8.5M - 4,911 cases, 33 deaths

    Normalized to the US outside NY, Canada is at 75,000 cases and 850 deaths, while Quebec, their hotspot, is at 173,000 cases and 1170 deaths

    So many terrible takes during this whole happening on why the US isn't like a small island, like Singapore, or ignoring how much worse Schengen Western Europe as a whole (same population as US) is to the US because its formed of a couple dozen countries.
  166. @Anon
    Canada exported its elderly, that's what. Many of them are here in the southern US because they snowbird here over winter, and they haven't gone back home yet.

    They’ve all gone back home. And they brought the Wuhan coronavirus with them on the drive back from Florida.

  167. @Art Deco
    The dense settlement around Chicago has about 8.4 million people in it. That around Toronto, which now extends as far as Hamilton, has just north of 6 million. Toronto's bigger than any American metropolis other than New York, Los Angeles, and Chicago.

    Art, thank you for the extra details.

  168. @Bruno
    Unrelated.

    The French team at the origine of chloroquine treatment has tested 55 k persons. 5% are postive. They say treatment is not suited for intubated patients but does miracle in the first three days. It could also be prophylactic. They have only one death of an 84 yo man out of 2700 persons treated since 3 days.

    In this video he also presents his team of professors and physicians (in French)

    https://m.youtube.com/watch?v=NlQfKZsPxeE


    Ps : yes he didn’t invented the chloroquine but he had the idea to use this to treat micro-virus 10 years ago and it was implemented by Chinese. So he is at the origine of this alleged treatment.

    Trump certainly has a “type” with his favored doctors.

  169. What is Canada doing right?

    Canada has socialized medicine; the US has healthcare business.

    Canada as a nation has reason to see fewer cases and reduce deaths as that is the function of medicine.

    US as a business conglomerate has reason to see fewer old people and fewer people with multiple comorbidities as this reduces costs and increases profits, which are the functions of for profit businesses.

    Canada is Star Fleet; the US is Ferenginar.

    • Replies: @vhrm

    US as a business conglomerate has reason to see fewer old people and fewer people with multiple comorbidities as this reduces costs and increases profits, which are the functions of for profit businesses.
     
    Except that the US also has socialised medicine for "Old People" (anyone over 65) just like Canada.

    And old people are a big fat conduit of money from the government (really from people's payroll taxes) to doctors, hospitals and drug companies...

    So, no, the medical industry doesn't generally want to get rid of the olds.
    , @ben tillman

    Canada has socialized medicine; the US has healthcare business.

    Canada as a nation has reason to see fewer cases and reduce deaths as that is the function of medicine.

    US as a business conglomerate has reason to see fewer old people and fewer people with multiple comorbidities as this reduces costs and increases profits, which are the functions of for profit businesses.
     
    That makes no sense. "Socialized medicine" isn't medicine; it's a government program -- with the same goals as other government programs, none of which have anything to do with the welfare of the people.

    In the US, old people are the source of the profits.

    I don't get how you could possibly be so confused.
  170. @Mr McKenna
    I'm amazed that you are still going to the store.

    Why?

  171. @Anon
    Yeah, the very real damage from the response to the COVID-19 “pandemic” is real and immediate. I’m in my 50’s and was self-employed with an LLC. I’m done. Even if things got totally back to normal by June. No bailout for me and not even a check from the government as I made slightly over the cutoff in earnings. Maybe I can cash out my evaporated 401k and use most of it to cover the penalty for withdrawing it?

    So here I am. I spent yesterday online applying to jobs at Walmart. In the application I said that I’m available to work any day, any shift. Today I’ll apply to CVS, Wegmans, and Amazon.

    I’m not complaining, 95% of the world would love to have my problems.

    “ I’m in my 50’s and was self-employed with an LLC. ”

    You probably qualify for expanded unemployment TrumpBux.

    Kevin Drum has a useful summary.

    https://www.motherjones.com/kevin-drum/2020/03/heres-a-quick-primer-on-the-new-expanded-unemployment-benefits/

    You may also qualify for a forgivable loan if you’ve been paying yourself a salary and rent, but probably the unemployment is a better bet.

    From what I can tell, the small business forgivable loan is potentially huge for businesses and equal to 2.5 months of rent and payroll based on the average of the prior 12 months.

    In other words, if you had 10k in such expenses between 3/2019 and 2/2020, you can get a “loan” that is 25k for meeting those expenses from 2/15 to 4/30/20. This means in effect the feds cover your costs completely, and you don’t save any money firing people or not paying business rent.

  172. @Cagey Beast
    Please spare us all the grandstanding and stick to the topic at hand. I say this as a Canadian.

    Cagey, weren’t you supposed to say….” I say this as a Canadian, eh?”

    • LOL: Cagey Beast
  173. Nothing. They lack the man who will give the order to start starting everything up again. It needs to end at Easter, except for vulnerable groups (mom and dad are not benefiting from having their possibly infected asymptomatic working kids suddenly needing to live free in their old room for the duration of the lockdown).

  174. @Lot
    A problem with masks is you feel like a doofus being the only one wearing one, and also rude for freaking people out.

    I brought one to the store today, couldn’t being myself to put it on. 3 out of about 30 had masks on, 2/5 employees and 1/25 customers.

    Make it compulsory and these issues disappear.

    Traffic was down substantially from late last week’s already low amount. 5:30pm on a weekday was like 5am on a Sunday.

    People have hoarded everything they need now and about half of restaurants that planned on staying open for takeout two weeks ago have given up and closed. The other half are nearly dead too.

    An ER doctor friend of mine was told by one of those so helpful “hospital administrators” that doctors would not be allowed to wear N95s while seeing patients as it would “scare them”.

    This while they had three covid cases in the same ER.

    Meanwhile most of the docs are getting their hours and pay cut by about half as the admins are cutting shifts since no one wants to come into the hospital.

    Happy Doctor’s Day, suckers!

  175. All you fools can say what you want about Canada… I know that when I travel I am not shunned or frowned apon because my back pack has a Canadian flag patch,. In fact I know several Americans that wear a Canadian patch when they travel. Just saying.

    Anyway .. I gotta patch this hole in my igloo roof and put some more foil on the antenna.

    • Replies: @Buffalo Joe
    Bruce, Your Canadian patch is a maple leaf. I doubt there is a lot of world wide recognition for your patch, probably think you're with some forestry group. You can't achieve our status until your flag is burned all over the world. That my friend is status.
    , @Reg Cæsar

    I know that when I travel I am not shunned or frowned apon because my back pack has a Canadian flag patch
     
    Your old and august Red Ensign might have gotten different, er, reviews. You switched to a safe corporate logo just so you could hitchhike in Europe?



    https://nationalpostcom.files.wordpress.com/2017/07/red-ensign-1.png?w=604&zoom=2
    , @Art Deco
    You want your Lester Pearson Supermarket Logo, you can keep your Lester Pearson Supermarket Logo.
  176. @Mr McKenna

    What Is Canada Doing Right?
     
    Everything's "paid for" right? Since we cover illegal migrants I assume they do too? But they don't have anywhere near as many, for some reason. Better border controls? (NB: I'm not positing these as reasons.)

    Cigna to waive patient costs for COVID-19 treatment

    Health insurance giant Cigna is waiving patient costs related to COVID-19 treatment.

    Nearly all insurance plans are offering to cover the cost of testing but Cigna joins Aetna and Humana in guaranteeing policyholders are not liable for care related to the pandemic.
     

    Reminds me of how it's best if your un- or under-insured house is destroyed in a Federally-Declared Disaster--they you get the Free Money! If your place was wrecked by an event no one's heard of or cares about, that's on you.

    What does that mean? I belong to Cigna, PPO, no co pays, ultra cheap prescriptions like $2-$5 dollars. They already cover all my costs for what I and my employer pay them. How generous, they’ll fulfill their contractual obligations for which I pay in advance.

  177. @Brian Reilly
    Mr. Mann, You are correct in your assertion that the Coronavirus® panic and government response is a fraud. I am not so sure that all the duped are complete and utter fools, however. It seems to me that the propaganda, or psy-ops, scam (or whatever the right term is) has been going on for so long that otherwise intelligent people are completely conditioned. They have grown so used to wearing blinders that they not only don't notice the blinders, they resent that you do notice them.

    We are in for a real screwing here. A lot of the Isteve and Unz readers are going to be damned surprised when they realize (too late) how badly they have been fooled, and for how long.

    Next up: “Alt right bloggers who somehow survived the brutal COVID pandemic join forces with Antifa in demanding immediate implementation of ID2020” brought to you by most compassionate, ethical philanthropist of our time, Bill Gates

  178. @Cagey Beast
    Canada has its share of military cemeteries in France too. Those graves belong to men who'd just escaped the Depression. We will never know but I'd guess the majority of them were for universal healthcare as well.

    Those graves belong to men who’d just escaped the Depression. We will never know but I’d guess the majority of them were for universal healthcare as well.

    Neither Canada nor the UK had it then. Germany was closest. So we joined the wrong side?

    • Replies: @Cagey Beast
    https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=CmpEfEcli5I
  179. Meanwhile, in the Land Of My Absent Fathers… if you’re old and get CV19, don’t bother calling an ambulance!

    https://www.theguardian.com/society/2020/mar/31/welsh-surgery-says-sorry-after-telling-the-very-ill-not-to-call-999

    An NHS health board has apologised after a GP surgery in Wales recommended patients with serious illnesses complete “do not resuscitate” forms in case their health deteriorated after contracting coronavirus.

    Llynfi surgery, in Maesteg near Port Talbot, wrote to a “small number” of patients on Friday to ask them to complete a “DNACPR” – do not attempt cardiopulmonary resuscitation – form to ensure emergency services would not be called if they contracted Covid-19 and their health deteriorated.

    This is a very difficult letter for the practice to write to you,” it read, noting people with illnesses such as incurable cancer, motor neurone disease and pulmonary fibrosis were at a much greater risk from the virus.

    We would therefore like to complete a DNACPR form for you which we can share … which will mean that in the event of a sudden deterioration in your condition because [of] Covid infection or disease progression the emergency services will not be called and resuscitation attempts to restart your heart or breathing will not be attempted,” it continued.

    Completing a DNACPR will have several benefits,” it claimed.

    “1/ your GP and more importantly your friends and family will know not to call 999.

    2/ scarce ambulance resources can be targeted to the young and fit who have a greater chance.

    • Replies: @LondonBob
    Why wouldn't you, if resources become scarce, focus those on the young and those with more chance of surviving. This is a mentality I utterly fail to understand. Actually a lot of people are perfectly comfortable with when it is their time.
  180. @Thea
    In my head I’ve pictured you as a former alternative fan who didn’t care much what others thought. Like in the 90s you were rockin’ out to Sonic Youth and had a vinyl collection, man.

    In my head I’ve pictured you as a former alternative fan who didn’t care much what others thought.

    Reminder:

    https://www.unz.com/isteve/the-old-weird-california/#comment-1770366 (#15)

    https://www.unz.com/isteve/katz-its-time-to-take-the-great-white-men-of-science-off-their-pedestals/#comment-2013373 (#66)

  181. @Intelligent Dasein

    The stated purpose of lockdowns is to slow the spread of infection, not even stop, just slow the rate of infection. This done so that hospitals don’t get overwhelmed. Leaving aside for the moment that there are nowhere near as many infections or deaths as the SARS epidemic of 2010-11, is it really true that lockdowns slow the rate of transmission?
     
    To your point, here is the lates log-scale chart of deaths is various countries, updated 03/30/2020. In this graph, China and Iran have been removed and Germany and Belgium added. Not only do we see a pronounced and obvious levelling off as the death rate moves out of the upper bound of the "flu zone," but even more important is this: The slope of every country's death rate (other than South Korea) is identical as it passes the 100/10 million threshold. These are contries from differnt parts of the world, with different climates and different demographics and a gamut of different public responses, implemented at different times. Everything different, same slope. This is pretty good prima facie evidence that the social distancing procedures aren't really doing much except destroying the economy.

    https://i0.wp.com/wattsupwiththat.com/wp-content/uploads/2020/03/corona-deaths20200330.png?w=718&ssl=1

    No, you do not understand how the lockdown works at all in this epidemic

    If you see the curve of Italy you can see that is “bending” recently, and becoming more horizontal, it started to be more close to an horizontal line, and this is because to have an effect, the lockdown measures needs at least 3 weeks to start a clear change in the trends, in the number of deaths, because there is a delay due to the period of incubation and aggravation before to die of all the people that were infected just prior the lockdown, the typical period for this pandemic is around 20 days from infection to death in people they could track the source of infection, so that is the reason the lockdowns are only effective after three weeks and the deceleration is not sudden, as all the process that depends of many patients

    Italy made the lockdown in 9 or march, so now you will see how the line started to change a lot from the US or the rest of the curves, and Spain in more or less a week. So the rest of the countries are still well inside the exponential phase

    End the lockdown and you will see again how the increase of number of deaths become exponential again in 3 weeks

  182. @Testing12
    Why?

    https://www.berkeleyside.com/2020/03/21/man-80-reportedly-has-first-community-transmitted-covid-19-case-in-berkeley

    The man doesn’t go out much in general, she said, but was at the Safeway at 1444 Shattuck Place, at Rose Street, last Sunday. She said she wanted people who visited that Safeway that day to know that.

  183. @Lockean Proviso
    I've worn my N95 to the post office and grocery store and found that it produces a rather hostile response in some even though I'm just going about my business. (For what it's worth this doesn't happen when I go out without a mask as I have for all the years before now). I think that some assume that I'm sick and that's why I have the mask on. Or maybe they are more attuned to the belief that mask wearing is a threat associated with robbers. Maybe it's just a reminder that there's a weird and pervasive threat in our midst now. I live in a very conservative area and maybe some view wearing a mask as a repudiation of Trump's competence to keep us all safe or as giving in to fake news exaggerations designed to make Trump look bad. Probably it differs depending on the individual– they've been both black and white. Most people don't mind and some seem to approve of it as a form of social responsibility (which is exactly what it is), but there are a few who don't like it.

    I will continue to wear it when I have to go into a business with other people, but not when I ride my bike around town for exercise. Masks make sense sometimes even if other people don't.

    I’ve worn my N95 to the post office and grocery store and found that it produces a rather hostile response in some even though I’m just going about my business.

    Draw a smile on it.

    • LOL: Corn
  184. @The Alarmist
    What is Canada doing right? Among many things, not putting up much of a fight to keep Meghan & Harry.

    DJT, to his credit, said that the US will not be paying for their security.

  185. @Anonymous
    Toronto is quite dense

    True. Most of them voted for Trudeau.

  186. @Lockean Proviso
    I've worn my N95 to the post office and grocery store and found that it produces a rather hostile response in some even though I'm just going about my business. (For what it's worth this doesn't happen when I go out without a mask as I have for all the years before now). I think that some assume that I'm sick and that's why I have the mask on. Or maybe they are more attuned to the belief that mask wearing is a threat associated with robbers. Maybe it's just a reminder that there's a weird and pervasive threat in our midst now. I live in a very conservative area and maybe some view wearing a mask as a repudiation of Trump's competence to keep us all safe or as giving in to fake news exaggerations designed to make Trump look bad. Probably it differs depending on the individual– they've been both black and white. Most people don't mind and some seem to approve of it as a form of social responsibility (which is exactly what it is), but there are a few who don't like it.

    I will continue to wear it when I have to go into a business with other people, but not when I ride my bike around town for exercise. Masks make sense sometimes even if other people don't.

    I offered to send my brother N95s, but he won’t wear a mask at work because of the request to save them for health care workers. He calls it “solidarity”; I call it virtue signalling. But that could be why you’re getting stares.

  187. @bruce county
    All you fools can say what you want about Canada... I know that when I travel I am not shunned or frowned apon because my back pack has a Canadian flag patch,. In fact I know several Americans that wear a Canadian patch when they travel. Just saying.

    Anyway .. I gotta patch this hole in my igloo roof and put some more foil on the antenna.

    Bruce, Your Canadian patch is a maple leaf. I doubt there is a lot of world wide recognition for your patch, probably think you’re with some forestry group. You can’t achieve our status until your flag is burned all over the world. That my friend is status.

    • Replies: @bruce county
    Well Joe there is no arguing that logic. I'm saving that one for the family album.
    My childhood friends (YT's) from Maryland will certainly agree. They were the ones that bought the Canadian patches. Canadians don't burn American flags but we sure can burn a White House. Just a little history story from way back in the summer of 1814. I'm sure you don't hold that against us. It was kinda sneaky. He he he. We even had time to ransack the joint and have a nice sit down supper before we burned it. The only complaint apparently was the shitty beer Madison has stowed away in the basement. Dolley got drunk and ran with Washingtons painting. Rumour has it up here that she masterbated to it when James was out raping Indians.

    I'm not tooting any horns for Canada; we have our share of clowns but our flag IS world known and I am proud to wear it. If only our blue maple leaf wearing hockey team would make a showing one more time before I die.
    I just want the plague to end. I'm tired of seal blubber, hot cakes and maple syrup. Its all a bit crazy now...And its getting harder to get gas for my Ski-Doo.

    Good luck everyone and to all my white American neighbours.
    God bless.

  188. @AnonAnon
    My theories:

    1 - For all we know Canada is coding deaths to hide coronavirus victims.

    2 - Canada doesn’t get as many incoming travelers as the US nor does their population travel the globe as much as people in the US do so they had less opportunity to get the super spreaders that seem to be doing so much damage here. Do they even jet around their own country that much? They seem to like to head to Cuba or Mexico for cheap warm weather vacations. Globe trotting for work seems to be a big part of modern corporate America and I don’t get the sense Canadians travel for business nearly the same extent we do.

    There is a great website called Nextstrain.org that has animations of the virus spreading the globe. So far it doesn’t show that much activity in Canada but it’s only as good as the data it’s received from the various countries.

    3- Canada is behind the US and will hit its peak later.

    For all we know Canada is coding deaths to hide coronavirus victims

    Nobody’s got any incentive to downplay deaths: they are all coding on the ‘with‘ side of ‘of/with‘, albeit less systematically than the Italians.

    If they don’t, it will become clear that this is a less-lethal contagion than 2009 H1N1. On an ‘apples to apples’ comparison, H1N1 was worse at this stage, when the cost measure is properly defined (‘loss of quality-adjusted years of life‘).

    If the cost for covid19 excludes ‘died-with‘, H1N1pdm09 wins by a gigantic margin, because somewhere around 90% of covid19 deaths are ‘died-with‘, not ‘died-from‘ – whereas all of H1N1pdm09’s deaths were died-from.

    If that happens, suddenly all the clampdowns make no sense: society survived 2009 without deliberately generating economic conditions that will, if maintained for more than a month[1], rival the Great Depression.

    This is all of a piece with the types of data being presented to the schlubs:
    • ‘confirmed cases’ – sub-acute and asymps (who don’t show up at hostpitals) aren’t counted;
    • ‘new confirmed cases’ implies that a positive test today was contracted today;
    • ‘died with‘: RBIs being counted as home runs;
    • CFR (‘died-with‘/’confirmed cases’): that’s RBIs/hits as opposed to HRs/at-bats (when HRs/pitches would be a better metric).

    This makes everything look much much worse than it is.

    FWIW they missed a trick: if they used ‘died-with‘/’resolved cases’, they would get even bigger numbers (8% for Canada; 37% for the US).

    You read that right: of the ‘confirmed cases’ considered ‘complete’ in the US, 37% have died.

    If the media tried to run that scam, even Yanks would notice that such a number is preposterous and indicative of deliberate bias and panic-mongering.

    It’s absolutely clear that the ‘less-extreme’ panic-mongering is deliberate.

    It’s crafted for the fuckwits who watch morning TV (‘The View‘ being pretty representative). If you’re a person who can’t do sums, the numbers you hear (and the way they’re phrased) encourages belief that the numbers ‘justify’ all proposed interference in the economy.

    This is because the ‘talent’ on The View is as innumerate (and as prone to hysteria) as their audience: it is easy for them to ignore things they can’t compute.

    [1] There is a risk that the global economy is already doomed to economic conditions worse than the Great Depression.

    There is a very high probability that there will be some ‘potline’-type problems when restrictions are removed. Significant parts of global production chains might have characteristics like aluminium smelters – where a one-day interruption in power to the potline causes a ‘freeze’ that takes a month to fix and costs ~3 months production (one lost from emptying the potline; one foregone by downtime; one lost due to costs of remediation).

    • Replies: @The Wild Geese Howard

    [1] There is a risk that the global economy is already doomed to economic conditions worse than the Great Depression.
     
    You mean like the complete collapse in US auto sales?

    https://www.bloomberg.com/news/articles/2020-03-31/automakers-are-about-to-give-inkling-of-the-sales-collapse-ahead
    , @LondonBob
    In Britain we record deaths with Covid rather than just by, also yesterday the Office of National Statistics said they would dig around and also record deaths that weren't in hospitals but have happened elsewhere. It wasn't clear to me how they would determine if they died with covid, presumably they would have been tested. There was a controversy where a twenty one year old girl died of a heart attack and, against the doctors wishes, the coroner recorded covid because she had had a cough. The left is very invested in covid here so this worries me.
  189. @Jack D

    The southernmost tip of Canada is somewhat north of Detroit.
     
    Actually Windsor, Ontario lies directly SOUTH of Detroit. It's about the same latitude as Boston, MA.

    In the case of colds and flu, being indoors is usually considered WORSE than being outdoors (for reasons that are not entirely clear - they know that flu season is winter but they don't 100% understand why - low indoor humidity? people more crowded together?).

    I would say that in the case of Wuhan Virus (or any novel contagious virus), the biggest factor is social distancing. You get outbreaks in places where people don't practice it. Typically there is some big social event where a supercarrier (someone who is shedding virus like crazy) is present and he infects everyone at that event and they all fan out and go home and infect everyone in their circle. There is certain randomness in where the supercarrier lights the fire but also cultural aspects to (lack of) social distancing that keeps it going. In today's NY Times they give the story of a well attended funeral of a black man with 10 kids in Albany, GA that set off a big outbreak. In New Orleans you had people from all over the state attending some event a few weeks ago and when they drove back to their home towns they each set off an epidemic. If you have groups (e.g. Hasidic Jews, ghetto blacks) who are resistant to maintaining social distancing, they are going to keep setting off these fires.

    I am really surprised that the analogy of fire has not been used more. Maybe it is racist or something. If you cut off every ember from a source of fresh fuel and let it burn itself out, a forest fire will go out eventually. If the wind keeps blowing the sparks onto unburned timber, the fire is going to keep spreading. Now it's much easier to put out a fire when it is still a little brush fire but we completely blew that opportunity.

    “Actually Windsor, Ontario lies directly SOUTH of Detroit.”
    Right you are. Steve Perry caught a lot of shit for not knowing that.

  190. @John Cunningham
    There is a fair chance that wearing a mask might slightly improve one's prospects, and. I humbly suggest that if you are worried that people might consider you a doofus, you are too f*cking stupid to go out in public. Stay in your basement.

    I humbly suggest that if you are worried that people might consider you a doofus, you are too f*cking stupid to go out in public. Stay in your basement.

    It is difficult to obtain groceries by staying in my basement. I suggest that even doofae, such as I, might be better served by purchasing food by venturing out of our basements. Mask or no mask.

  191. @Anon7
    OT: Interesting perspective from Lord Sumption, former UK Supreme Judge. He takes the virus very seriously, but he describes the reaction to Covid-19 as a kind of collective hysteria that can turn democracy into despotism.


    https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=JHE3OerDKEY

    That’s an excellent essay. The highlights of the interview are whipped in this article:

    https://www.express.co.uk/news/uk/1262338/Coronavirus-hysteria-Lord-Sumption-BBC-police-lockdown-UK-response

    (at the time i rolled my eyes at this scene… )

  192. @Robert White
    We have universal medical care & federal government oversight because they foot the bills. Each province is accountable to the federal government for maintenance of provincial medial systems.
    Upon discovery of a potential pandemic our medical staff experts put the call out to shut down social propinquity due to clustering of disease outbreak in multi-unit living facilities.

    Triage is CANADA is well coordinated due to the amounts of money Canadians put into the universal medical system for expertise & labour costs.

    Hospitals are not private corporations with greedy shareholders that want to squeeze every last penny out of clients.

    In CANADA, we are the stakeholders & clients of the universally run system. If the system fails we know that we failed the system. In the USA the corporations run their private business based upon profit and not based upon care, or benevolence.

    Americans are greed oriented & selfish which leads to anal retentive hoarding and bad decision making based upon individual selfishness.

    Americans are in competition to see who they can step on to get to the top of the greed pyramid.

    'Greed is good' Michael Douglas

    'Greed is an American way of life' Ayn Rand

    RW

    Hey dingbat, the only reason you can have the 30th best health system in the world is because you slack on your NATO contributions. We’re in essence paying for your colonoscopies. The CBC agrees with my anal-ysis by the way.

    If you were a grown-up country and funded a proper military you’d have the health system of Bolivia, no offense to Bolivia.

    • Replies: @Buffalo Joe
    Brag, I was in Thunder Bay, Ontario waiting for my lift to an outpost camp. A guy walked over and asked, "Did you see the two F-16s on the runway?" I thought maybe we had invaded Canada, then I saw them with the maple leaf on the tail fin. We even supply their planes.
    , @keypusher
    Seems to be the latest bullshit meme -- everyone who isn't stupid enough to blow hundreds of billions of dollars annually on worthless weapons systems is thereby having their health care systems funded by Uncle Sam. Speaking of which, presumably you saw that one of our priceless aircraft carriers has been crippled by coronavirus.

    What are we protecting Canada from, incidentally? Polar bears?
    , @Twodees Partain
    Funny thing about the vaunted Canadian healthcare system:

    One night, an online acquaintance of mine was in an email conversation with me. He kept taking long trips AFK, and apologized for keeping me waiting for a pdf file. He said that he had cut his index finger and couldn't get the bleeding to stop.

    I replied that he should go to an ER for stitching or cautery. He said that he would when the ER opened at 9:00 am. So, it would be "free", but he might need a transfusion by the time he could get it treated. Great system they have there.
  193. A poll.

    How serious is Covid 19 crisis?

    A. The new Bubonic Plague

    B. As bad as the Spanish Flu

    C. Several times worse than regular flu

    D. No worse than regular flu

    E. Less serious than seasonal flu

    • Replies: @Art Deco
    The data from the Diamond Princess suggest that about 11% of those in a matrix with common dining halls and a common ventilation systems and daily contact with a body of service staff will come down with a symptomatic ailment, and that about 4% of those over 60 made ill will die from that illness. The data from Italy suggests that 95% of those who die from the disease are over 60. Italy's numbers in this respect may be skewed if in fact the bulk of their patients were already present in the hospital for other reasons. Just taking that proportion at face value, and given the age distribution of Italy's population, that proportion suggests that the generic person over 60 is ~48x as likely to die from a symptomatic illness than the generic person under 60. It would appear that the probability of death for a generic person under sixty would be around 0.1%. The figure commonly quoted for the % of flu sufferers dying is 0.1%, so my guess would be that flu sufferers under 60 have notably lower deaths, but no clue what the ratio would be there. So, yeah, worse than flue, especially for the old.
    , @Intelligent Dasein
    In between C and D.

    Corona is killing people who have a 99% chance of not making it another 5 yeras anyway. It's like AnotherDad said, corona is just packing the next few flu seasons into one.
    , @S. Anonyia
    C.
  194. @Anon
    The pandemic's extent really is the Chinese Communist Government's fault.

    We can tell by the extra amount of funeral urns sent to the funeral homes in the province where Wuhan is, that some 40,000 extra deaths must have taken place. Fox had a story on their website about this.

    If they had come clean early on about how many were gravely ill and dying, the nations of the world would have had a much more aggressive response 2 or 3 weeks earlier, and thus the numbers would have been much smaller. Xi's underlings may have not been entirely honest with him, so we cant put it all on Xi.

    China is owning up to just shy of 4,000 deaths, but by the amount of funeral urns for cremated ashes sent to the Wuhan area, its extrapolated that the real number of bodies is roughly 10 times that.

    That horse-shit story assumes that a city of 11.8 million only requires urns for covid19 victims.

    If it’s a representative city in China, it will have ~1350 deaths a week from causes other than covid19.

    Add a few thousand spread over a few weeks, and 2000 seems about right.

    The ZH ‘clickbait for fuckwits’ story links to Shanghaiist, in which a photo shows urns inside a building.

    There are 200 urns per identifiable ‘set’ (5×5×8), and 8 sets: 1600. Right in line with what you would expect.

    The truck in the Shanghaiist story has far less than 25 pallets.

    (FWIW I did the dimension-count on the truck in a bit of a rush: it’s more likely that the ‘8’ dimension is oriented across the truck bed: this would give a 1 pallet-wide × 10 pallets on that flat-bed: 2000 urns – about what would be expected).

    For fuck’s sake – can none of you people COUNT?

    • Replies: @Anon
    Another Foxnews story details how Wuhan residents themselves are claiming China's numbers are grossly undercounted. Caixin.com claimed 5000 urns were delivered to one funeral home in a day, twice the number Xi's officials claimed.

    Chen Yaouhi, a Wuhan resident, says nobody believes the number of deaths are as low as the Chinese goverment has claimed. There are usually about 220 cremations per day in this province, but crematory workers had been brought from other areas to help cremate bodies around the clock. They are the one who noticed mathematical disparities, mentioned it online, and Fox picked it up. I thought Id share it here, and see I have gotten the attention of a fan of the Chinese Communist Party. I didnt "do the math" at all, dissident Chinese did who live in Wuhan.
  195. Anonymous[110] • Disclaimer says:

    Free healthcare may mean more people go see doctors.

    In the US, many don’t see doctors unless things get real bad.

    Also, more space and distance among people certainly help.

    • Replies: @Buffalo Joe
    Anon 110, Please stop saying "free" health care. You sound like Bernie or Warren.
    , @Art Deco
    No health care is free. There is cross-subsidized health care and health care with opaque costs.
  196. @Thea
    In my head I’ve pictured you as a former alternative fan who didn’t care much what others thought. Like in the 90s you were rockin’ out to Sonic Youth and had a vinyl collection, man.

    Thea:

    Not far off, I’ve never had a record player nor liked SY, but like most middle school boys in the 90s I liked Nirvana and Smashing Pumpkins. Maybe around age 15 I expanded my tastes when I first discovered mp3s, and switched over to classic rock.

    Jenner: wow how many of my comments do you have bookmarked? I got my wish, “cuck” has mostly died out compared to 2016/7. Not a classy term.

    • Replies: @Jenner Ickham Errican

    Jenner: wow how many of my comments do you have bookmarked?
     
    None. I typed “cuck” into your comment history (your bizarre “cuck” complaint was rather memorable—I also wrote a pretty good response at the time). And I remembered that you ‘quit’ the blog (it’s always funny when someone quits in a huff and then returns) so it was easy to see in your comment history when your traffic dropped off. Bingo.

    I got my wish, “cuck” has mostly died out compared to 2016/7.
     
    Ah, but it will always be relevant because there will always be cucks to be named and shamed. Maybe fewer will be minted now that the concept is well-established. Sapir-Whorf can change lives!

    Not a classy term.
     
    Cucks aren’t classy people, to say the least. It’s appropriate.
    , @a Newsreader
    O-OT:

    The conservatives who sell out the American people are more akin to the woman who cuckolds her husband than the cuckold himself. "Cuckservative" is (was?) just an effective jab at those traitors.

    We regular Americans are more in the position of the cuckolded husband, paying for the misdeeds of she whom we trusted.
  197. @Another Canadian
    Your death numbers for Canada are out of whack. March 25-30 was 29, 37, 53, 60, 63, 79, today we had 89 by 11 a.m.

    I made use of the data on Worldometers. Take up your complaint with them.

  198. @Buffalo Joe
    Bruce, Your Canadian patch is a maple leaf. I doubt there is a lot of world wide recognition for your patch, probably think you're with some forestry group. You can't achieve our status until your flag is burned all over the world. That my friend is status.

    Well Joe there is no arguing that logic. I’m saving that one for the family album.
    My childhood friends (YT’s) from Maryland will certainly agree. They were the ones that bought the Canadian patches. Canadians don’t burn American flags but we sure can burn a White House. Just a little history story from way back in the summer of 1814. I’m sure you don’t hold that against us. It was kinda sneaky. He he he. We even had time to ransack the joint and have a nice sit down supper before we burned it. The only complaint apparently was the shitty beer Madison has stowed away in the basement. Dolley got drunk and ran with Washingtons painting. Rumour has it up here that she masterbated to it when James was out raping Indians.

    I’m not tooting any horns for Canada; we have our share of clowns but our flag IS world known and I am proud to wear it. If only our blue maple leaf wearing hockey team would make a showing one more time before I die.
    I just want the plague to end. I’m tired of seal blubber, hot cakes and maple syrup. Its all a bit crazy now…And its getting harder to get gas for my Ski-Doo.

    Good luck everyone and to all my white American neighbours.
    God bless.

    • LOL: Another Canadian
    • Replies: @Buffalo Joe
    bruce, a real canuck would have mentioned poutine. However, I do like the Canadian Ballet. Let's see how many here know about that, eh?
  199. @Reg Cæsar

    Those graves belong to men who’d just escaped the Depression. We will never know but I’d guess the majority of them were for universal healthcare as well.
     
    Neither Canada nor the UK had it then. Germany was closest. So we joined the wrong side?

  200. @Anon7
    OT: Interesting perspective from Lord Sumption, former UK Supreme Judge. He takes the virus very seriously, but he describes the reaction to Covid-19 as a kind of collective hysteria that can turn democracy into despotism.


    https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=JHE3OerDKEY

    I’ve agreed with a judge before (e.g., Denning MR’s first sentence in Miller v Jackson [1977] QB 966: “In summertime village cricket is the delight of everyone.“) but not often.

    However we must always keep in mind that

    Interdum stultus opportuna loquitur

    (Now and again, by chance a fool speaks [correctly]).

    I adopted that as phrase my primary personal motto since I first read it (in Fielding’s “Tom Jones“).

    It is the only thing that trumps “Les pires gouverneront” (The Worst Will Rule), and then so rarely that it seldom bites.

    Methinks Hizzonna – Oh, I do beg yiz-pahdin, m’Lud – will face the lash and the pillory for this.

  201. @James Speaks

    What is Canada doing right?
     
    Canada has socialized medicine; the US has healthcare business.

    Canada as a nation has reason to see fewer cases and reduce deaths as that is the function of medicine.

    US as a business conglomerate has reason to see fewer old people and fewer people with multiple comorbidities as this reduces costs and increases profits, which are the functions of for profit businesses.

    Canada is Star Fleet; the US is Ferenginar.

    US as a business conglomerate has reason to see fewer old people and fewer people with multiple comorbidities as this reduces costs and increases profits, which are the functions of for profit businesses.

    Except that the US also has socialised medicine for “Old People” (anyone over 65) just like Canada.

    And old people are a big fat conduit of money from the government (really from people’s payroll taxes) to doctors, hospitals and drug companies…

    So, no, the medical industry doesn’t generally want to get rid of the olds.

  202. @Bragadocious
    Hey dingbat, the only reason you can have the 30th best health system in the world is because you slack on your NATO contributions. We're in essence paying for your colonoscopies. The CBC agrees with my anal-ysis by the way.

    If you were a grown-up country and funded a proper military you'd have the health system of Bolivia, no offense to Bolivia.

    Brag, I was in Thunder Bay, Ontario waiting for my lift to an outpost camp. A guy walked over and asked, “Did you see the two F-16s on the runway?” I thought maybe we had invaded Canada, then I saw them with the maple leaf on the tail fin. We even supply their planes.

    • Replies: @bruce county
    LOL.... Theres good money in imperialism eh.
    We feed your war machine and you keep printing greenbacks.
    , @Bragadocious
    Hey maybe you caught a glimpse of Russell Williams, Canada's flying ace and greatest war hero.
    , @Joe Stalin
    “Did you see the two F-16s on the runway"

    Boeing F-18s. Canucks didn't like Boeing for trade reasons and instead of buying new ones bought some used RAAF F-18s recently.

    One thing about their F-18 is that it reflects something you would NEVER see on a Soviet aircraft; instead of just blowing away an errant airliner, the courteous Northerners mounted a spotlight on the starboard side of the fighter so they could SEE the identification on an unidentified plane.

    (Just forward of the cockpit.)

    https://thaimilitaryandasianregion.files.wordpress.com/2016/12/pair1_plfoto.jpg?w=624
    , @Anonymous
    Joe, the entire world Pays for your military. It’s the joy of having the world reserve currency. It’s a privilege you’ve been abusing badly.

    You use those military toys to enforce this reserve currency status on all. You love selling those beautiful machines to us, because it’s one of the few high level manufacturing operations left. It’s a pig trough though, and even this has become a grotesque, dysfunctional mess.

    As far as your boast about us ‘needing’ your airplanes....I assume you are insinuating we are to ‘stupid’ to make them. lol, Not really. We can make airplanes, we have made them and do still ...and we can make Nukes too, quite easily. We could be be a big, important Nuclear power and could wave our dicks around like big monkeys!... we could even threaten you! with our awesome power and technology! (Imagine that!) But we felt it probably wasnt necessary or helpful. (We May have thought wrong)

    You will implode, almost inevitably.. we can only hope you don’t destroy us and everyone else on the way out.
  203. @Anonymous
    Free healthcare may mean more people go see doctors.

    In the US, many don't see doctors unless things get real bad.

    Also, more space and distance among people certainly help.

    Anon 110, Please stop saying “free” health care. You sound like Bernie or Warren.

  204. @Buffalo Joe
    Brag, I was in Thunder Bay, Ontario waiting for my lift to an outpost camp. A guy walked over and asked, "Did you see the two F-16s on the runway?" I thought maybe we had invaded Canada, then I saw them with the maple leaf on the tail fin. We even supply their planes.

    LOL…. Theres good money in imperialism eh.
    We feed your war machine and you keep printing greenbacks.

    • Replies: @Reg Cæsar

    LOL…. Theres good money in imperialism eh.
     
    Hey, we got imperialism from you. UEL, WWI, and all that. The Spanish-American war and its aftermath (cf. Gen. Smedley Butler) were just riot control.
  205. @Anon
    A poll.

    How serious is Covid 19 crisis?

    A. The new Bubonic Plague

    B. As bad as the Spanish Flu

    C. Several times worse than regular flu

    D. No worse than regular flu

    E. Less serious than seasonal flu

    The data from the Diamond Princess suggest that about 11% of those in a matrix with common dining halls and a common ventilation systems and daily contact with a body of service staff will come down with a symptomatic ailment, and that about 4% of those over 60 made ill will die from that illness. The data from Italy suggests that 95% of those who die from the disease are over 60. Italy’s numbers in this respect may be skewed if in fact the bulk of their patients were already present in the hospital for other reasons. Just taking that proportion at face value, and given the age distribution of Italy’s population, that proportion suggests that the generic person over 60 is ~48x as likely to die from a symptomatic illness than the generic person under 60. It would appear that the probability of death for a generic person under sixty would be around 0.1%. The figure commonly quoted for the % of flu sufferers dying is 0.1%, so my guess would be that flu sufferers under 60 have notably lower deaths, but no clue what the ratio would be there. So, yeah, worse than flue, especially for the old.

  206. @bruce county
    Well Joe there is no arguing that logic. I'm saving that one for the family album.
    My childhood friends (YT's) from Maryland will certainly agree. They were the ones that bought the Canadian patches. Canadians don't burn American flags but we sure can burn a White House. Just a little history story from way back in the summer of 1814. I'm sure you don't hold that against us. It was kinda sneaky. He he he. We even had time to ransack the joint and have a nice sit down supper before we burned it. The only complaint apparently was the shitty beer Madison has stowed away in the basement. Dolley got drunk and ran with Washingtons painting. Rumour has it up here that she masterbated to it when James was out raping Indians.

    I'm not tooting any horns for Canada; we have our share of clowns but our flag IS world known and I am proud to wear it. If only our blue maple leaf wearing hockey team would make a showing one more time before I die.
    I just want the plague to end. I'm tired of seal blubber, hot cakes and maple syrup. Its all a bit crazy now...And its getting harder to get gas for my Ski-Doo.

    Good luck everyone and to all my white American neighbours.
    God bless.

    bruce, a real canuck would have mentioned poutine. However, I do like the Canadian Ballet. Let’s see how many here know about that, eh?

    • Agree: bruce county
    • Replies: @Anonymous
    Is that a hockey reference?
    , @BigJimSportCamper
    Ahhh, fond memories of the Ballet!!! So easy to cross back and forth over the border, a far more civilized time....

    Coming in to O Canada: "Citizen of what country?" "US" "Where are you going?" "The ballet!!" "Have fun!"

    Coming back: "Citizen of what country?" "US" "Where did you go?" "The ballet and Brewers Retail!!" "Bringing anything back?" "Yep, a case of Brador and a case of Stock Ale" "Ok, go ahead".

    Brador and Stock Ale are no longer brewed, sadly. The ballet is still there, but the border is now like Checkpoint Charlie in Berlin during the Cold War and just not worth the BS.

  207. @Anonymous
    Free healthcare may mean more people go see doctors.

    In the US, many don't see doctors unless things get real bad.

    Also, more space and distance among people certainly help.

    No health care is free. There is cross-subsidized health care and health care with opaque costs.

    • Replies: @Pontius
    Free at point of use.

    We all know why our taxes are higher.
  208. @HA
    "The Corona virus “pandemic” is a fraud. It is being used to deliberately drive a totalitarian agenda."

    If that's true, it's happening most notably in areas like Spain and Italy and NYC that were all about ignoring the virus and not being afraid of "unfounded rumors" and claiming coronavirus was a nothingburger, which then allowed the virus to spread to the point where they decided it was time to change gears and go into lockdown. (I mean, how much of an excuse do the mullahs of Iran need to get more totalitarian?)

    How do we know that your similar cries of fraud are not part of that same conspiracy that only leads to harsher measures later on? Why are ordinarily bright people unable to even read a basic graph without screwing up, or else are reduced to spouting idiotic beliefs that viruses must evolve into less virulent forms by way of some heretofore unknown biological imperative (I guess rabies must have not gotten that memo), now some the key voices in telling us that this is all a big fraud?

    In general, it seems that if the people in charge had taken this MORE seriously earlier on (in particular, the Communist apparatchiks of Wuhan) we could all be taking it far less seriously now. Isn't there a lesson there?

    In general, it seems that if the people in charge had taken this MORE seriously earlier on (in particular, the Communist apparatchiks of Wuhan) we could all be taking it far less seriously now. Isn’t there a lesson there?

    Yes. Time travel is how to address these serious issues. First, you wait until you see what happens, and then, you travel back in time and correct it! I’ll put this up there with outlawing criminal behavior, and insisting on warm (but not hot), sunny days whenever anyone ventures outside. Also, the lion will lie down with the lamb.

  209. @Oscar Peterson
    What is South Dakota doing right?

    One thing Canada has going for it, is that people are already used to being confined during the Canadian winter.

    I'd be most interested to know specifically about Toronto and Montreal.

    It's hard to say, as the Swedes seem to be getting nervous, and Russia has modified its original "keep claim and carry on" guidance as well.

    What is South Dakota doing right?

    (1) dispersion (2) not that many skiers (3) mostly common sense.

  210. @Charon
    China's owning up to more than that, finally. But just a little bit. What psychologists call "trickle truth".

    China’s Coronavirus Count Excluded Infected People With No Symptoms

    China said for the first time that it excluded people who were infected with the novel coronavirus but haven’t shown symptoms from its national tally, as questions arise about its accounting of the infectious disease.

    https://www.wsj.com/articles/chinas-coronavirus-count-excluded-infected-people-with-no-symptoms-11585650226

     

    #CancelChina

    • Agree: Charon
  211. @Buffalo Joe
    Brag, I was in Thunder Bay, Ontario waiting for my lift to an outpost camp. A guy walked over and asked, "Did you see the two F-16s on the runway?" I thought maybe we had invaded Canada, then I saw them with the maple leaf on the tail fin. We even supply their planes.

    Hey maybe you caught a glimpse of Russell Williams, Canada’s flying ace and greatest war hero.

  212. @The Wild Geese Howard
    Anecdotal story from 53 year-old NJ woman who had Corona, had hydroxychloroquine as part of her treatment regime and recovered:

    COVID-19 patient successfully treated with untested drug in N.J. provides a ray [of] hope

    https://www.nj.com/opinion/2020/03/covid-19-patient-successfully-treated-with-unproven-drug-in-nj-is-a-ray-hope-opinion.html

    1) It would be very helpful to hear from the attending physician.
    2) Any lab work/studies that were done on the viral progression would also be immensely helpful.

    Of course, if you go to the NJ.com homepage, this 'hopeful' story is at the very bottom of the "Latest" section. One has to scroll down three or four screens to see the header.

    The top of the "Latest" section?

    Newark cops shut down 15 businesses, ticketed 161 people in 1 night for coronavirus lockdown violations

    I'm sure it's just a big coincidence. Why would we want to give anyone hope?

    I mean, no one ever ran on "HOPE" as a successful political strategy, did they?

  213. @Anon
    A poll.

    How serious is Covid 19 crisis?

    A. The new Bubonic Plague

    B. As bad as the Spanish Flu

    C. Several times worse than regular flu

    D. No worse than regular flu

    E. Less serious than seasonal flu

    In between C and D.

    Corona is killing people who have a 99% chance of not making it another 5 yeras anyway. It’s like AnotherDad said, corona is just packing the next few flu seasons into one.

    • Agree: Jim Don Bob
    • Replies: @Jonathan Mason
    That seems right!

    What is Florida doing right? We are the third most populous state in the US with the oldest population, but still have less than 100 deaths and less than 1000 hospitalizations.

    There seems to be a concentration in the Miami/Fort Lauderdale/Palm Beach area, but nevertheless half a dozen counties account for most of the cases, and they are in the above cities that have the large hospitals, plus Tampa and Orlando and Fort Myers.

    Jacksonville, which is one of our largest cities has 4 deaths and only 30 hospitalizations so far, Columbia County, where I live has only 3 cases with zero hospitalizations, and that number has not increased in 12 days, many counties still have zero cases. Some counties have small numbers of cases, but they seem to be concentrated in nursing homes that have several sick residents.

    As of tomorrow midnight we are all supposed to be shut down and only allowed to leave the house for work (wife and myself are classed as essential) or to get gasoline and groceries. But really it will not make much difference, because everywhere is closed down anyway and there is nowhere to go, so it is just like one prolonged public holiday with people barbecuing in their yards and so on. Memorial Day has come early this year.

    Still the weather is beautiful right now. Hot and sunny in the day and cool at night. It would all be so idyllic except that so many people will be out of work and not getting paid.

  214. @HA
    "The Corona virus “pandemic” is a fraud. It is being used to deliberately drive a totalitarian agenda."

    If that's true, it's happening most notably in areas like Spain and Italy and NYC that were all about ignoring the virus and not being afraid of "unfounded rumors" and claiming coronavirus was a nothingburger, which then allowed the virus to spread to the point where they decided it was time to change gears and go into lockdown. (I mean, how much of an excuse do the mullahs of Iran need to get more totalitarian?)

    How do we know that your similar cries of fraud are not part of that same conspiracy that only leads to harsher measures later on? Why are ordinarily bright people unable to even read a basic graph without screwing up, or else are reduced to spouting idiotic beliefs that viruses must evolve into less virulent forms by way of some heretofore unknown biological imperative (I guess rabies must have not gotten that memo), now some the key voices in telling us that this is all a big fraud?

    In general, it seems that if the people in charge had taken this MORE seriously earlier on (in particular, the Communist apparatchiks of Wuhan) we could all be taking it far less seriously now. Isn't there a lesson there?

    spouting idiotic beliefs that viruses must evolve into less virulent forms by way of some heretofore unknown biological imperative

    Heretofore unknown to you, perhaps (and the editorial staff of the New Yorker).

    Before you think you’re capable of making declarative statements about what is or isn’t an ‘idiotic belief’, perhaps read something not written by journalists.

    e.g., -> Alizon et al (2009) Virulence evolution and the trade‐off hypothesis: history, current state of affairs and the future Journal of Evolutionary Biology, Vol 2 Issue 2 (Feb 2009)

    That’s a useful review: it shows the hypothesis is perfectly sensible from the perspective of evolutionary biology, but it’s still an open question and there’s empirical data going both ways.

    If you don’t like reading (seems likely), this Ted talk from 2014 captures most of the key concepts, and gives some recent(ish) evidence in favour of the hypothesis.

    Can we domesticate germs? (Paul Ewald, Evolutionary biologist Wikipedia bio

    As I’ve said elsewhere during this made-for-TV hysteria, the hypothesis that parasites have an incentive to become less deadly has a long history, and reasonable amount of evidence to support them.

    After all, the objective of a parasite is to proliferate, not to kill its host. The host death is a side-effect, and if the host dies without spreading the parasite, then the parasite is doomed.

    Viruses have almost no ‘control circuitry’: they don’t attempt to regulate the rate at which their takeover of the host’s replicators, unfolds. (Although they do ‘quorum sense’).

    If a specific host species has its system taken over in an explosive fashion, there is a higher likelihood of almost-immediate lethal consequences for the host; this is unlikely to the the optimal point in the trade-off between reproductive rate (of the virus) and proliferation (again, of the virus).

    Also: this whole discussion is obfuscated in this instance because virus evolution is a bit different to the evolution of living things (there’s a whole journal – unsurprisingly called ‘Virus Evolution’ – dedicated to the field).

    Now to the flipside: what happens when you try to do things that try to curtail a pathogen (say, with increasing doses of antibiotics in their growth medium)… the winners wind up much much hardier. Watch this – and then think about how much antibiotics humanity was using in the 20th century.

    And don’t get me started on quorum sensing (aka quorum signalling): bacteria and viruses talk to each other.

    • Replies: @Kratoklastes
    Oh, and one more thing... this SARS-cov-2 coronavirus really does appear to be 'milder' than 'OG' SARS... unless you're chronically ill from something else, and over 70 years of age.

    Originally, I was going to make that point just to be silly - I figured that I could leave a KEK at the end, so if someone called me on it I could claim it was a joke.

    After all, SARS and SARS-CoV-2 are genetically related, but there is so much elapsed time between the two that they're not really directly comparable.

    After all, 17 years of virus adaptation is hundreds of thousands of generations, and viral evolution is characterised by high levels of mutation; so it would be the equivalent of millions of years of primate evolution.

    Then I read a thing from March 26th - Zhang and Holmes (2020) - and it looks like they're much closer to each other than you would expect.

    So the point is actually pretty relevant: here we have a distant cousin of original SARS (but not of MERS), and lo and behold, it's (supposedly) more infectious, but less lethal, than its ancestor.

    That's why it's having to be credited for RBIs: it's got weak spaghetti arms and can't hit dingers.

    (By the way - let's hear it for these genome research guys. They had this thing's full genome sequenced by January 5th, from a sample obtained on Dec 26th. Fucking amazing.)

    Reference.

    Yong-Zhen Zhang and E Holmes, A Genomic Perspective on the Origin and Emergence of SARS-CoV-2, Cell (2020)
    , @HA
    "That’s a useful review: it shows the hypothesis is perfectly sensible from the perspective of evolutionary biology"

    Don't try and handwave what he said into something sensible. It wasn't.

    I'm well aware of the fact that being too deadly is detrimental to a virus and have frequently pointed out myself that we can certainly hope that this thing will mutate into something milder as may have happened with the Spanish flu and with other diseases. That may be "perfectly sensible" as far as general tendencies in evolution go. But it's absolutely idiotic to assume that this will happen within the space of a few months, as he allegedly did, or indeed, to assign any specific time scale whatsoever, absent some unique understanding of how this thing mutates (and for what it's worth, it seems to be mutating more slowly than expected). AIDS -- a disease Epstein claims to have some weighty knowledge of -- is highly mutable, and fast-evolving, and yet, according to the cited expert, it has stayed deadly over decades. It's only the medical remedies that have served to undercut its death toll. Same goes for rabies, and smallpox.

    So, yeah, hope all you want. But to assume that a model is wrong or inadequate because it doesn't naively incorporate that hope? That's just stupid.

  215. Anon[532] • Disclaimer says:
    @Kratoklastes
    That horse-shit story assumes that a city of 11.8 million only requires urns for covid19 victims.

    If it's a representative city in China, it will have ~1350 deaths a week from causes other than covid19.

    Add a few thousand spread over a few weeks, and 2000 seems about right.

    The ZH 'clickbait for fuckwits' story links to Shanghaiist, in which a photo shows urns inside a building.

    There are 200 urns per identifiable 'set' (5×5×8), and 8 sets: 1600. Right in line with what you would expect.

    https://www.dropbox.com/s/ovdz44up0p9yt25/WuhanUrns.png?dl=1

    The truck in the Shanghaiist story has far less than 25 pallets.

    https://www.dropbox.com/s/c2kczvvhm5wxo2p/WuhanTruck.png?dl=1

    (FWIW I did the dimension-count on the truck in a bit of a rush: it's more likely that the '8' dimension is oriented across the truck bed: this would give a 1 pallet-wide × 10 pallets on that flat-bed: 2000 urns - about what would be expected).

    For fuck's sake - can none of you people COUNT?

    Another Foxnews story details how Wuhan residents themselves are claiming China’s numbers are grossly undercounted. Caixin.com claimed 5000 urns were delivered to one funeral home in a day, twice the number Xi’s officials claimed.

    Chen Yaouhi, a Wuhan resident, says nobody believes the number of deaths are as low as the Chinese goverment has claimed. There are usually about 220 cremations per day in this province, but crematory workers had been brought from other areas to help cremate bodies around the clock. They are the one who noticed mathematical disparities, mentioned it online, and Fox picked it up. I thought Id share it here, and see I have gotten the attention of a fan of the Chinese Communist Party. I didnt “do the math” at all, dissident Chinese did who live in Wuhan.

  216. @AnotherDad

    The weird trick is called lying. For example, Germany is recording deaths as heart attacks when the person had coronavirus. Yes, their [email protected]#king heart failed but the trigger was the virus.

    Italy, by contrast, is trying to code deaths accurately and has horror numbers. Even in Italy, the excess deaths seem to about 4.5 times the official virus death rate. The data for this is currently very localized but it is consistent.
     
    Oh please. It's not the Germans who are "lying".

    https://www.bloomberg.com/news/articles/2020-03-18/99-of-those-who-died-from-virus-had-other-illness-italy-says

    This is at least 95%--maybe 99%--an "old and sick people have to die of something" disease.

    And the political "pressure" or tendency in the West will be to tag every last death that is plausibly Covid-19 as exactly that. Less responsibility. More funding. And the chic thing to do.

    Long term the only thing that matters is the excess death rate.
     
    Well yes. Excess death rate and effects on future death rates.

    The deal with this is that it can "kill" a lot of people ... but it kills precisely the old and sick people who would be ideal "flu death" candidates in the next 5 or 10 years.

    It is "early harvest", it is not mowing down younger people in their prime. (Which is why the hysterics "World War II" analogies are so offensive.)

    One explanation for Japan is that the disease is more widespread here than limited testing is showing but that this isn’t reflected in an unusually high death rate because many elderly people live alone and don’t have much contact with others.

    I am back in Japan now. The longer I am here, I am starting to fear that the reaction in the West is massively damaging overkill. In Japan, hobby activities like concerts, tea ceremonies, sports events etc are shut down. And of course many schools are closed. Also, there is some voluntary self-quaratine, like business travelers returning from overseas. However, until just a few days ago, it was otherwise life as normal. People go to work and restaurants are open, and there isn’t–is NOT by a long shot–universal mask wearing or social distancing.

    Now, cases are starting to pick up. However, as some have pointed out, the increase in cases coming immediately after the Olympics was cancelled is suspicious.

    I have a bad feeling that the virus is more widespread here than the official numbers indicate, and that this means it’s possible to manage the outbreak without destroying your economy entirely with early and targeted closures and quarantine of elderly and at-risk. Maybe add in some public health measures like Czech or Taiwan has done.

    I don’t know what’s going on in NYC and Italy with overwhelmed hospitals, but it will be interesting to see what everything looks like in hindsight.

    Note I don’t believe it’s a hoax and am very ready to believe we are not overreacting, but it is undeniable that we get flu deaths every year and no one bats an eye. If this ends up being, in the end, just like a very bad flu then we will have overreacted I’m afraid. Still too early to say for sure.

    I guess one way to look at this is as a trial run for something more MERS-like (30% fatality). Good to see, for example, that health-care workers haven’t abandoned their jobs, and good to get a sense of what our weaknesses are.

    • Replies: @The Wild Geese Howard

    The longer I am here, I am starting to fear that the reaction in the West is massively damaging overkill.
     
    Bruh, the experts here assure me you can just flick the $21.5T US economy off and on like a light switch.

    Flicking the piddly $5.1T Japanese economy off and on should be like blinking.
  217. @Buffalo Joe
    Brag, I was in Thunder Bay, Ontario waiting for my lift to an outpost camp. A guy walked over and asked, "Did you see the two F-16s on the runway?" I thought maybe we had invaded Canada, then I saw them with the maple leaf on the tail fin. We even supply their planes.

    “Did you see the two F-16s on the runway”

    Boeing F-18s. Canucks didn’t like Boeing for trade reasons and instead of buying new ones bought some used RAAF F-18s recently.

    One thing about their F-18 is that it reflects something you would NEVER see on a Soviet aircraft; instead of just blowing away an errant airliner, the courteous Northerners mounted a spotlight on the starboard side of the fighter so they could SEE the identification on an unidentified plane.

    (Just forward of the cockpit.)

    • Replies: @Buffalo Joe
    Joe, Thank you, but remember it was a Canadian telling me they were F-16s.
    , @Jenner Ickham Errican

    mounted a spotlight on the starboard side of the fighter
     
    Gonna need a ruling from Reg on that one.
  218. A significant proportion of Americans live in third world conditions.

    You shouldn’t be surprised when this produces third world results.

    • Replies: @Anon
    You mean with open sewers and acres of tin huts? Bullshit.
  219. @Kratoklastes

    spouting idiotic beliefs that viruses must evolve into less virulent forms by way of some heretofore unknown biological imperative
     
    Heretofore unknown to you, perhaps (and the editorial staff of the New Yorker).

    Before you think you're capable of making declarative statements about what is or isn't an 'idiotic belief', perhaps read something not written by journalists.

    e.g., -> Alizon et al (2009) Virulence evolution and the trade‐off hypothesis: history, current state of affairs and the future Journal of Evolutionary Biology, Vol 2 Issue 2 (Feb 2009)

    That's a useful review: it shows the hypothesis is perfectly sensible from the perspective of evolutionary biology, but it's still an open question and there's empirical data going both ways.

    If you don't like reading (seems likely), this Ted talk from 2014 captures most of the key concepts, and gives some recent(ish) evidence in favour of the hypothesis.

    Can we domesticate germs? (Paul Ewald, Evolutionary biologist Wikipedia bio

    https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=176adlNeRy8

    As I've said elsewhere during this made-for-TV hysteria, the hypothesis that parasites have an incentive to become less deadly has a long history, and reasonable amount of evidence to support them.

    After all, the objective of a parasite is to proliferate, not to kill its host. The host death is a side-effect, and if the host dies without spreading the parasite, then the parasite is doomed.

    Viruses have almost no 'control circuitry': they don't attempt to regulate the rate at which their takeover of the host's replicators, unfolds. (Although they do 'quorum sense').

    If a specific host species has its system taken over in an explosive fashion, there is a higher likelihood of almost-immediate lethal consequences for the host; this is unlikely to the the optimal point in the trade-off between reproductive rate (of the virus) and proliferation (again, of the virus).

    Also: this whole discussion is obfuscated in this instance because virus evolution is a bit different to the evolution of living things (there's a whole journal - unsurprisingly called 'Virus Evolution' - dedicated to the field).


    Now to the flipside: what happens when you try to do things that try to curtail a pathogen (say, with increasing doses of antibiotics in their growth medium)... the winners wind up much much hardier. Watch this - and then think about how much antibiotics humanity was using in the 20th century.

    https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=yybsSqcB7mE


    And don't get me started on quorum sensing (aka quorum signalling): bacteria and viruses talk to each other.

    Oh, and one more thing… this SARS-cov-2 coronavirus really does appear to be ‘milder’ than ‘OG’ SARS… unless you’re chronically ill from something else, and over 70 years of age.

    Originally, I was going to make that point just to be silly – I figured that I could leave a KEK at the end, so if someone called me on it I could claim it was a joke.

    After all, SARS and SARS-CoV-2 are genetically related, but there is so much elapsed time between the two that they’re not really directly comparable.

    After all, 17 years of virus adaptation is hundreds of thousands of generations, and viral evolution is characterised by high levels of mutation; so it would be the equivalent of millions of years of primate evolution.

    Then I read a thing from March 26th – Zhang and Holmes (2020) – and it looks like they’re much closer to each other than you would expect.

    So the point is actually pretty relevant: here we have a distant cousin of original SARS (but not of MERS), and lo and behold, it’s (supposedly) more infectious, but less lethal, than its ancestor.

    That’s why it’s having to be credited for RBIs: it’s got weak spaghetti arms and can’t hit dingers.

    (By the way – let’s hear it for these genome research guys. They had this thing’s full genome sequenced by January 5th, from a sample obtained on Dec 26th. Fucking amazing.)

    Reference.

    Yong-Zhen Zhang and E Holmes, A Genomic Perspective on the Origin and Emergence of SARS-CoV-2, Cell (2020)

    • Agree: ben tillman
  220. @Kratoklastes

    For all we know Canada is coding deaths to hide coronavirus victims
     
    Nobody's got any incentive to downplay deaths: they are all coding on the 'with' side of 'of/with', albeit less systematically than the Italians.

    If they don't, it will become clear that this is a less-lethal contagion than 2009 H1N1. On an 'apples to apples' comparison, H1N1 was worse at this stage, when the cost measure is properly defined ('loss of quality-adjusted years of life').

    If the cost for covid19 excludes 'died-with', H1N1pdm09 wins by a gigantic margin, because somewhere around 90% of covid19 deaths are 'died-with', not 'died-from' - whereas all of H1N1pdm09's deaths were died-from.

    If that happens, suddenly all the clampdowns make no sense: society survived 2009 without deliberately generating economic conditions that will, if maintained for more than a month[1], rival the Great Depression.

    This is all of a piece with the types of data being presented to the schlubs:
    • 'confirmed cases' - sub-acute and asymps (who don't show up at hostpitals) aren't counted;
    • 'new confirmed cases' implies that a positive test today was contracted today;
    • 'died with': RBIs being counted as home runs;
    • CFR ('died-with'/'confirmed cases'): that's RBIs/hits as opposed to HRs/at-bats (when HRs/pitches would be a better metric).

    This makes everything look much much worse than it is.

    FWIW they missed a trick: if they used 'died-with'/'resolved cases', they would get even bigger numbers (8% for Canada; 37% for the US).

    You read that right: of the 'confirmed cases' considered 'complete' in the US, 37% have died.

    If the media tried to run that scam, even Yanks would notice that such a number is preposterous and indicative of deliberate bias and panic-mongering.

    It's absolutely clear that the 'less-extreme' panic-mongering is deliberate.

    It's crafted for the fuckwits who watch morning TV ('The View' being pretty representative). If you're a person who can't do sums, the numbers you hear (and the way they're phrased) encourages belief that the numbers 'justify' all proposed interference in the economy.

    This is because the 'talent' on The View is as innumerate (and as prone to hysteria) as their audience: it is easy for them to ignore things they can't compute.


    [1] There is a risk that the global economy is already doomed to economic conditions worse than the Great Depression.

    There is a very high probability that there will be some 'potline'-type problems when restrictions are removed. Significant parts of global production chains might have characteristics like aluminium smelters - where a one-day interruption in power to the potline causes a 'freeze' that takes a month to fix and costs ~3 months production (one lost from emptying the potline; one foregone by downtime; one lost due to costs of remediation).

    [1] There is a risk that the global economy is already doomed to economic conditions worse than the Great Depression.

    You mean like the complete collapse in US auto sales?

    https://www.bloomberg.com/news/articles/2020-03-31/automakers-are-about-to-give-inkling-of-the-sales-collapse-ahead

    • Replies: @Anonymous
    My heart bleeds for automobile stealerships.
  221. @Chrisnonymous
    One explanation for Japan is that the disease is more widespread here than limited testing is showing but that this isn't reflected in an unusually high death rate because many elderly people live alone and don't have much contact with others.

    I am back in Japan now. The longer I am here, I am starting to fear that the reaction in the West is massively damaging overkill. In Japan, hobby activities like concerts, tea ceremonies, sports events etc are shut down. And of course many schools are closed. Also, there is some voluntary self-quaratine, like business travelers returning from overseas. However, until just a few days ago, it was otherwise life as normal. People go to work and restaurants are open, and there isn't--is NOT by a long shot--universal mask wearing or social distancing.

    Now, cases are starting to pick up. However, as some have pointed out, the increase in cases coming immediately after the Olympics was cancelled is suspicious.

    I have a bad feeling that the virus is more widespread here than the official numbers indicate, and that this means it's possible to manage the outbreak without destroying your economy entirely with early and targeted closures and quarantine of elderly and at-risk. Maybe add in some public health measures like Czech or Taiwan has done.

    I don't know what's going on in NYC and Italy with overwhelmed hospitals, but it will be interesting to see what everything looks like in hindsight.

    Note I don't believe it's a hoax and am very ready to believe we are not overreacting, but it is undeniable that we get flu deaths every year and no one bats an eye. If this ends up being, in the end, just like a very bad flu then we will have overreacted I'm afraid. Still too early to say for sure.

    I guess one way to look at this is as a trial run for something more MERS-like (30% fatality). Good to see, for example, that health-care workers haven't abandoned their jobs, and good to get a sense of what our weaknesses are.

    The longer I am here, I am starting to fear that the reaction in the West is massively damaging overkill.

    Bruh, the experts here assure me you can just flick the $21.5T US economy off and on like a light switch.

    Flicking the piddly $5.1T Japanese economy off and on should be like blinking.

  222. @Lot
    A problem with masks is you feel like a doofus being the only one wearing one, and also rude for freaking people out.

    I brought one to the store today, couldn’t being myself to put it on. 3 out of about 30 had masks on, 2/5 employees and 1/25 customers.

    Make it compulsory and these issues disappear.

    Traffic was down substantially from late last week’s already low amount. 5:30pm on a weekday was like 5am on a Sunday.

    People have hoarded everything they need now and about half of restaurants that planned on staying open for takeout two weeks ago have given up and closed. The other half are nearly dead too.

    Don’t worry about what other people think Lot. I’ve been going full coronavirus commando for a week now whenever I leave the house with an n95 mask and black nitrile gloves. Gradually you’ll be seeing more and more people masking up in public, provided anyone can find them.

    Here in sunny southern California, the demographic differences in the use of masks is quite observable.

    For example, in Santa Ana (majority Mexican), on Sunday, the girlfriend had an overwhelming craving for Chile Verde. So we masked and gloved up and drove through the ghetto to 6-7 restaurants for takeout, trying to find the elusive green guisado. After an hour and a half, mission accomplished. I saw one face mask out of hundreds of people.

    Last night we went to Albertsons in Irvine (Chinese, Persian, White community) for some Stolichnaya, and it was far more civilized. About 30% were masked up and they even had lines taped on the floor to distance people in the checkout lines. The difference in how clean and civilized in that demographic was patently obvious.

    The problem is the n95 masks have been hoarded to extinction. My ultra woo woo girlfriend (she makes her own liposomal vitamin C) was prescient enough to find some n95 masks at a lumber store last month. They are for sanding and fiberglass and don’t seal perfectly but they’re better than nothing.

    If you go to the Culver City-based Moldex website ( https://www.moldex.com/where-to-buy/ ) and try to find a single industrial safety products distributor selling a disposable n95 mask, it’s an exercise in futility.

    It may be better to get a full face reusable respirator if this thing goes on forever. I’m thinking of getting one of their series 9000 masks, if I can find one:

    https://www.moldex.com/product/9000-series-reusable-light-weight-full-face-respirator/

    I think that mask will probably be met with considerable social distancing in the checkout lines at the supermarket.

    • Replies: @Pontius
    I have a series 6000 3M full face respirator and a set of replacement filters but it's going to have to get Biblical before I go out in public with that on.

    https://boater-supplies.com/wp-content/uploads/2015/04/3M-6000-Series-Full-Facepiece-Respirators-Reusable.jpg
    , @vhrm
    If this really becomes the seasonal new normal, then PAPR will be the way to go.

    If not for everybody, certainly for healthcare professionals.

    https://www.mopec.com/product/maxair-capr-series-the-no-hose-papr-powered-air-purifying-respirator/

    I think that model was mentioned in one of the "view by a front line doctor" write-ups that was one of Steve's previous posts.

  223. @Federalist

    ...the weather is also weird this year….normally its cold as hell right now and pouring rain…
     
    You're saying that it's normally "cold as hell" in New Orleans in late March?

    Don’t know what he’s talking about because it’s not. There will be like one cold spell in late March. New Orleans sits so low it’s always warmer and more humid than the surrounding Gulf Coast cities like Biloxi, Mobile, Pensacola etc.

  224. @Anon
    A poll.

    How serious is Covid 19 crisis?

    A. The new Bubonic Plague

    B. As bad as the Spanish Flu

    C. Several times worse than regular flu

    D. No worse than regular flu

    E. Less serious than seasonal flu

    C.

  225. Anonymous[323] • Disclaimer says:
    @Buffalo Joe
    bruce, a real canuck would have mentioned poutine. However, I do like the Canadian Ballet. Let's see how many here know about that, eh?

    Is that a hockey reference?

    • Replies: @Jim Don Bob
    https://www.yourdictionary.com/canadian-ballet
    , @Buffalo Joe
    323, In Fort Erie there are "Gentlemen Clubs" where the staff, well the female staff, is buck naked. Not a stitch of clothing, oh, and they dance. Hence the name "Canadian Ballet." They also have golf outings where your female caddy is buck naked. Culture at its finest. And who is keeping score.
  226. @James Speaks

    What is Canada doing right?
     
    Canada has socialized medicine; the US has healthcare business.

    Canada as a nation has reason to see fewer cases and reduce deaths as that is the function of medicine.

    US as a business conglomerate has reason to see fewer old people and fewer people with multiple comorbidities as this reduces costs and increases profits, which are the functions of for profit businesses.

    Canada is Star Fleet; the US is Ferenginar.

    Canada has socialized medicine; the US has healthcare business.

    Canada as a nation has reason to see fewer cases and reduce deaths as that is the function of medicine.

    US as a business conglomerate has reason to see fewer old people and fewer people with multiple comorbidities as this reduces costs and increases profits, which are the functions of for profit businesses.

    That makes no sense. “Socialized medicine” isn’t medicine; it’s a government program — with the same goals as other government programs, none of which have anything to do with the welfare of the people.

    In the US, old people are the source of the profits.

    I don’t get how you could possibly be so confused.

    • Replies: @Corvinus
    "“Socialized medicine” isn’t medicine; it’s a government program — with the same goals as other government programs, none of which have anything to do with the welfare of the people."

    Actually, it has EVERYTHING to do with the welfare of the people, since they receive health care coverage. Please educate yourself.

    https://evidencenetwork.ca/five-things-most-people-get-wrong-about-canadas-healthcare-system/

    https://www.businessinsider.com/american-misconceptions-about-canadian-healthcare-2019-11
    , @James Speaks

    In the US, old people are the source of the profits.
     
    Hospitals run at near capacity as is, thanks to old people, sure, and they don't mind paying customers. But the insurance companies that took over Medicare like old people who don't get real sick. It will make the system healthier if some of them die off and leave only the healthier old people. Or something.
  227. “Or does Canada have one weird trick that would do us wonders if we could only figure out what it is?”

    JFC, Mr. Sailer, do some NOTICING.

    https://globalnews.ca/news/6749717/coronavirus-canada-critical-week

    Across the country, federal and provincial health officials have banned large gatherings, closed non-essential businesses and advised Canadians to practise physical distancing to limit the spread of COVID-19…Tam noted, though, that Canada is a “big country” and different regions are experiencing different timing of the pandemic, with different periods of acceleration and deceleration…Dr. Jeff Kwong, an infectious disease specialist and associate professor in the department of family and community medicine at the University of Toronto, told Global News that based on mathematical models and what we know about the virus’s incubation period, this would be the week many may begin having symptoms. “It’s going to be this week or the next week that we’re going to see a wave of people who are really sick,“ Kwong said.

  228. @Joe Stalin
    “Did you see the two F-16s on the runway"

    Boeing F-18s. Canucks didn't like Boeing for trade reasons and instead of buying new ones bought some used RAAF F-18s recently.

    One thing about their F-18 is that it reflects something you would NEVER see on a Soviet aircraft; instead of just blowing away an errant airliner, the courteous Northerners mounted a spotlight on the starboard side of the fighter so they could SEE the identification on an unidentified plane.

    (Just forward of the cockpit.)

    https://thaimilitaryandasianregion.files.wordpress.com/2016/12/pair1_plfoto.jpg?w=624

    Joe, Thank you, but remember it was a Canadian telling me they were F-16s.

    • Replies: @Pontius
    Figures..

    We should buy the rights to the F20 and build it ourselves. It's not like an air force is good for much more than pulverizing countries that can't fight back anyway.

    Best jet that never was.

    https://www.militaryfactory.com/aircraft/detail.asp?aircraft_id=688
  229. @ben tillman

    Canada has socialized medicine; the US has healthcare business.

    Canada as a nation has reason to see fewer cases and reduce deaths as that is the function of medicine.

    US as a business conglomerate has reason to see fewer old people and fewer people with multiple comorbidities as this reduces costs and increases profits, which are the functions of for profit businesses.
     
    That makes no sense. "Socialized medicine" isn't medicine; it's a government program -- with the same goals as other government programs, none of which have anything to do with the welfare of the people.

    In the US, old people are the source of the profits.

    I don't get how you could possibly be so confused.

    ““Socialized medicine” isn’t medicine; it’s a government program — with the same goals as other government programs, none of which have anything to do with the welfare of the people.”

    Actually, it has EVERYTHING to do with the welfare of the people, since they receive health care coverage. Please educate yourself.

    https://evidencenetwork.ca/five-things-most-people-get-wrong-about-canadas-healthcare-system/

    https://www.businessinsider.com/american-misconceptions-about-canadian-healthcare-2019-11

  230. @AnotherDad

    The weird trick is called lying. For example, Germany is recording deaths as heart attacks when the person had coronavirus. Yes, their [email protected]#king heart failed but the trigger was the virus.

    Italy, by contrast, is trying to code deaths accurately and has horror numbers. Even in Italy, the excess deaths seem to about 4.5 times the official virus death rate. The data for this is currently very localized but it is consistent.
     
    Oh please. It's not the Germans who are "lying".

    https://www.bloomberg.com/news/articles/2020-03-18/99-of-those-who-died-from-virus-had-other-illness-italy-says

    This is at least 95%--maybe 99%--an "old and sick people have to die of something" disease.

    And the political "pressure" or tendency in the West will be to tag every last death that is plausibly Covid-19 as exactly that. Less responsibility. More funding. And the chic thing to do.

    Long term the only thing that matters is the excess death rate.
     
    Well yes. Excess death rate and effects on future death rates.

    The deal with this is that it can "kill" a lot of people ... but it kills precisely the old and sick people who would be ideal "flu death" candidates in the next 5 or 10 years.

    It is "early harvest", it is not mowing down younger people in their prime. (Which is why the hysterics "World War II" analogies are so offensive.)

    You could always bother to research what Germany is doing.

    The stupid in your post is almost incomprehensible but “they had other illnesses and would have died at some point” is a sane argument in your head? Its hard not to see this illness as reaping the dumb at this point.

  231. @HA
    "My sense is that the virus
    (1) does not thrive in high heat and humidity
    (2) is killed in outdoor areas when the temperature drops below freezing."

    Oh, so now it just "does not thrive" in high heat and humidity? That's your "sense"? Huh. That seems a lot more measured than some of your earlier wildly overblown claims, eh? I mean, weren't you previously assuring us that "In spring and summer, the virus won’t transmit. Yeah, baby!"

    What went wrong? Did you find time at some point to actually read some of those papers you were citing? Because from what I can see, the part about how the "virus won't transmit" is nothing but some ridiculous exaggeration that you yourself tacked on in an effort to fool anyone dumb enough to buy into your hype.

    Again, for those who continue to insist that we're totally getting carried away by fear and panic, consider the possibility that one major reason for that is that so many of those who earlier assured us that this would all just disappear on its own are walking back their bravado. The Rudy Gobert approach has been tried time and time again, but it just hasn't worked out well. I mean, Sweden might still pull it off, but Sweden -- like Maine and Vermont -- can pull off a lot of stuff the rest of the world can't for reasons the rest of the world doesn't even want to mention (though soon even Sweden won't be able to get away with it), so I'm not putting much weight into that.

    But I guess Bolsonaro can still carry the day. He seems just the kind of guy to understand stochastic differential equations in log-space.

    Again, for those who continue to insist that we’re totally getting carried away by fear and panic,

    I think one reason for the divergence of views, is simply that this new Chinese coronavirus is in the “sweet spot” of severity for variance of peoples’ reactions to risk and attitudes toward life.

    If this thing was 5 times more lethal, everyone would be on board fighting the plague all out. If it was 5 times less severe it really would be just “a bad flu” and no one would be doing this

    The “it’s just the flu” people were nuts, if they meant that in terms of severity. But they aren’t wrong about it’s basic character and overall effects. It “kills” the old and the sick. Mostly people who, if they didn’t die from it, would die from the flu or something else within the next five or ten years.

    I was quite worried about this when i first heard about it. What was going on in Wuhan sounded really bad and i thought “Great, what have the Chinese unleashed on us now!” In mid January, i was back and forth and almost pulled the plug on some international travel in early Feb. that we’d had booked for a couple months, But travelling, when i read about the cluster on the Diamond Princess, and the result–an 80 early old Japanese couple dying … my worries actually eased. More people have died, but the story remains the same–the elderly. Young people like my kids–the odds are minuscule, and i suspect they are almost all people with serious health problems, probably people who have done stupid stuff like vaping.

    I’m in no sense cheering on old people dying. But it’s simply not the same thing as say the Spanish Flu, much less the Black Death, that cut through society like a scythe, killing people in their prime.

    If your entire perspective is only your existence as an individual, and you’re in a “target market” then i guess this is super-scary. But i’m a conservative. My life is part of something bigger than me–my family, my nation, my civilization–that existed before me and will–the good Lord willing–continue after me. That’s what i care about.

    My dad is in a retirement community in the Seattle area. (Several miles from the place in Kirkland that got hit.) They’ve got several cases, and he’s definitely at risk. I sure don’t want him to get it, and even less be killed by it. But … he’s in his 90s, he’s lived a good life–great marriage, kids, time with the grandchildren as they grew up. He will die sometime in the next few years. We all go eventually. If he dies from this, it is sad for our family, but hardly the end of the world.

    Me, i’ve still got a couple/three decades left–i hope. I still have the grandchildren thing to do, and even stuff teach my kids. But if it’s my time … that’s unfortunate, a much, much greater loss than my dad, but still not the end of the world.

    My kids are in their 20s. They have their lives yet to lead. They have marriages and children still ahead of them. They are the future. Their lives simple matter much much more.

    If my dad’s loss would be a 1, mine would be a 100, but any of my kids’ loss would be a million. They are what matters. They are the future. The thread to all that is to come. And this virus–thank goodness–is just not very dangerous to them.

    • Replies: @Reg Cæsar

    If this thing was 5 times more lethal, everyone would be on board fighting the plague all out. If it was 5 times less severe it really would be just “a bad flu” and no one would be doing this
     
    Sorry, but you're too smart to be using times more and, worse, times less. Like double negatives, it's not just the grammar, it's the arithmetic.
    , @HA
    "I think one reason for the divergence of views, is simply that this new Chinese coronavirus is in the “sweet spot” of severity for variance of peoples’ reactions to risk and attitudes toward life."

    That's what seems to be the emerging consensus now, but there was no way of knowing that in advance -- I don't care how minutely anyone dissects the Diamond Princess or chooses to believe China's paper trail on Wuhan. In fact, there's still a lot that still needs to be nailed down. When will that vaccine be ready, and if that takes more than a while, how many bites out of the gene pool can this thing take? It's good that it only seems to be taking out people with other co-morbidities, but even if it leaves you alive with some scarring, that may well be the co-morbidity that allows it (or some other related ailment) to take you out the next time it comes around. (And by the way, not everyone will be OK with simply writing off Italians and Iranians and asthmatics into the sorry-you're-not-really-w0rth-it category.)

    But my point is that when it comes to exponential growth, even a fairly tight range of uncertainty around that exponent can lead to orders of magnitude in the final outcome. It's one thing to be off by a factor of two or three when counting the dead in a flue season. Being off by a factor of two or three in R_0 can be far more dire. The fact that so many who are in the "nothingburger" camp can't even appreciate that makes their overall position that much flimsier. So if anyone is puzzled why so many people seem to be in what they consider to be the alarmist camp, I would argue it's primarily the failure of those on the other side to come up with anything convincing, even in the case of ordinarily bright people like Epstein and Coulter. Oh yeah, they can also rely on the endorsement of a leader such as Aleksandr Lukashenko on their team. I mean not a day goes by where someone on this site isn't complaining about why can't our leaders be more like Lukashenko, am I right?

  232. @bruce county
    LOL.... Theres good money in imperialism eh.
    We feed your war machine and you keep printing greenbacks.

    LOL…. Theres good money in imperialism eh.

    Hey, we got imperialism from you. UEL, WWI, and all that. The Spanish-American war and its aftermath (cf. Gen. Smedley Butler) were just riot control.

    • Replies: @bruce county
    Apt student indeed.
  233. @Art Deco
    No health care is free. There is cross-subsidized health care and health care with opaque costs.

    Free at point of use.

    We all know why our taxes are higher.

  234. @bruce county
    All you fools can say what you want about Canada... I know that when I travel I am not shunned or frowned apon because my back pack has a Canadian flag patch,. In fact I know several Americans that wear a Canadian patch when they travel. Just saying.

    Anyway .. I gotta patch this hole in my igloo roof and put some more foil on the antenna.

    I know that when I travel I am not shunned or frowned apon because my back pack has a Canadian flag patch

    Your old and august Red Ensign might have gotten different, er, reviews. You switched to a safe corporate logo just so you could hitchhike in Europe?

  235. @petit bourgeois
    Don't worry about what other people think Lot. I've been going full coronavirus commando for a week now whenever I leave the house with an n95 mask and black nitrile gloves. Gradually you'll be seeing more and more people masking up in public, provided anyone can find them.

    Here in sunny southern California, the demographic differences in the use of masks is quite observable.

    For example, in Santa Ana (majority Mexican), on Sunday, the girlfriend had an overwhelming craving for Chile Verde. So we masked and gloved up and drove through the ghetto to 6-7 restaurants for takeout, trying to find the elusive green guisado. After an hour and a half, mission accomplished. I saw one face mask out of hundreds of people.

    Last night we went to Albertsons in Irvine (Chinese, Persian, White community) for some Stolichnaya, and it was far more civilized. About 30% were masked up and they even had lines taped on the floor to distance people in the checkout lines. The difference in how clean and civilized in that demographic was patently obvious.

    The problem is the n95 masks have been hoarded to extinction. My ultra woo woo girlfriend (she makes her own liposomal vitamin C) was prescient enough to find some n95 masks at a lumber store last month. They are for sanding and fiberglass and don't seal perfectly but they're better than nothing.

    If you go to the Culver City-based Moldex website ( https://www.moldex.com/where-to-buy/ ) and try to find a single industrial safety products distributor selling a disposable n95 mask, it's an exercise in futility.

    It may be better to get a full face reusable respirator if this thing goes on forever. I'm thinking of getting one of their series 9000 masks, if I can find one:

    https://www.moldex.com/product/9000-series-reusable-light-weight-full-face-respirator/

    I think that mask will probably be met with considerable social distancing in the checkout lines at the supermarket.

    I have a series 6000 3M full face respirator and a set of replacement filters but it’s going to have to get Biblical before I go out in public with that on.

  236. @AnotherDad

    Again, for those who continue to insist that we’re totally getting carried away by fear and panic,
    ...
     
    I think one reason for the divergence of views, is simply that this new Chinese coronavirus is in the "sweet spot" of severity for variance of peoples' reactions to risk and attitudes toward life.

    If this thing was 5 times more lethal, everyone would be on board fighting the plague all out. If it was 5 times less severe it really would be just "a bad flu" and no one would be doing this

    The "it's just the flu" people were nuts, if they meant that in terms of severity. But they aren't wrong about it's basic character and overall effects. It "kills" the old and the sick. Mostly people who, if they didn't die from it, would die from the flu or something else within the next five or ten years.

    I was quite worried about this when i first heard about it. What was going on in Wuhan sounded really bad and i thought "Great, what have the Chinese unleashed on us now!" In mid January, i was back and forth and almost pulled the plug on some international travel in early Feb. that we'd had booked for a couple months, But travelling, when i read about the cluster on the Diamond Princess, and the result--an 80 early old Japanese couple dying ... my worries actually eased. More people have died, but the story remains the same--the elderly. Young people like my kids--the odds are minuscule, and i suspect they are almost all people with serious health problems, probably people who have done stupid stuff like vaping.


    I'm in no sense cheering on old people dying. But it's simply not the same thing as say the Spanish Flu, much less the Black Death, that cut through society like a scythe, killing people in their prime.

    If your entire perspective is only your existence as an individual, and you're in a "target market" then i guess this is super-scary. But i'm a conservative. My life is part of something bigger than me--my family, my nation, my civilization--that existed before me and will--the good Lord willing--continue after me. That's what i care about.

    My dad is in a retirement community in the Seattle area. (Several miles from the place in Kirkland that got hit.) They've got several cases, and he's definitely at risk. I sure don't want him to get it, and even less be killed by it. But ... he's in his 90s, he's lived a good life--great marriage, kids, time with the grandchildren as they grew up. He will die sometime in the next few years. We all go eventually. If he dies from this, it is sad for our family, but hardly the end of the world.

    Me, i've still got a couple/three decades left--i hope. I still have the grandchildren thing to do, and even stuff teach my kids. But if it's my time ... that's unfortunate, a much, much greater loss than my dad, but still not the end of the world.

    My kids are in their 20s. They have their lives yet to lead. They have marriages and children still ahead of them. They are the future. Their lives simple matter much much more.

    If my dad's loss would be a 1, mine would be a 100, but any of my kids' loss would be a million. They are what matters. They are the future. The thread to all that is to come. And this virus--thank goodness--is just not very dangerous to them.

    If this thing was 5 times more lethal, everyone would be on board fighting the plague all out. If it was 5 times less severe it really would be just “a bad flu” and no one would be doing this

    Sorry, but you’re too smart to be using times more and, worse, times less. Like double negatives, it’s not just the grammar, it’s the arithmetic.

  237. @Buffalo Joe
    Joe, Thank you, but remember it was a Canadian telling me they were F-16s.

    Figures..

    We should buy the rights to the F20 and build it ourselves. It’s not like an air force is good for much more than pulverizing countries that can’t fight back anyway.

    Best jet that never was.

    https://www.militaryfactory.com/aircraft/detail.asp?aircraft_id=688

  238. HA says:
    @Kratoklastes

    spouting idiotic beliefs that viruses must evolve into less virulent forms by way of some heretofore unknown biological imperative
     
    Heretofore unknown to you, perhaps (and the editorial staff of the New Yorker).

    Before you think you're capable of making declarative statements about what is or isn't an 'idiotic belief', perhaps read something not written by journalists.

    e.g., -> Alizon et al (2009) Virulence evolution and the trade‐off hypothesis: history, current state of affairs and the future Journal of Evolutionary Biology, Vol 2 Issue 2 (Feb 2009)

    That's a useful review: it shows the hypothesis is perfectly sensible from the perspective of evolutionary biology, but it's still an open question and there's empirical data going both ways.

    If you don't like reading (seems likely), this Ted talk from 2014 captures most of the key concepts, and gives some recent(ish) evidence in favour of the hypothesis.

    Can we domesticate germs? (Paul Ewald, Evolutionary biologist Wikipedia bio

    https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=176adlNeRy8

    As I've said elsewhere during this made-for-TV hysteria, the hypothesis that parasites have an incentive to become less deadly has a long history, and reasonable amount of evidence to support them.

    After all, the objective of a parasite is to proliferate, not to kill its host. The host death is a side-effect, and if the host dies without spreading the parasite, then the parasite is doomed.

    Viruses have almost no 'control circuitry': they don't attempt to regulate the rate at which their takeover of the host's replicators, unfolds. (Although they do 'quorum sense').

    If a specific host species has its system taken over in an explosive fashion, there is a higher likelihood of almost-immediate lethal consequences for the host; this is unlikely to the the optimal point in the trade-off between reproductive rate (of the virus) and proliferation (again, of the virus).

    Also: this whole discussion is obfuscated in this instance because virus evolution is a bit different to the evolution of living things (there's a whole journal - unsurprisingly called 'Virus Evolution' - dedicated to the field).


    Now to the flipside: what happens when you try to do things that try to curtail a pathogen (say, with increasing doses of antibiotics in their growth medium)... the winners wind up much much hardier. Watch this - and then think about how much antibiotics humanity was using in the 20th century.

    https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=yybsSqcB7mE


    And don't get me started on quorum sensing (aka quorum signalling): bacteria and viruses talk to each other.

    “That’s a useful review: it shows the hypothesis is perfectly sensible from the perspective of evolutionary biology”

    Don’t try and handwave what he said into something sensible. It wasn’t.

    I’m well aware of the fact that being too deadly is detrimental to a virus and have frequently pointed out myself that we can certainly hope that this thing will mutate into something milder as may have happened with the Spanish flu and with other diseases. That may be “perfectly sensible” as far as general tendencies in evolution go. But it’s absolutely idiotic to assume that this will happen within the space of a few months, as he allegedly did, or indeed, to assign any specific time scale whatsoever, absent some unique understanding of how this thing mutates (and for what it’s worth, it seems to be mutating more slowly than expected). AIDS — a disease Epstein claims to have some weighty knowledge of — is highly mutable, and fast-evolving, and yet, according to the cited expert, it has stayed deadly over decades. It’s only the medical remedies that have served to undercut its death toll. Same goes for rabies, and smallpox.

    So, yeah, hope all you want. But to assume that a model is wrong or inadequate because it doesn’t naively incorporate that hope? That’s just stupid.

    • Replies: @Kratoklastes

    to assume that a model is wrong or inadequate because it doesn’t naively incorporate that hope
     
    Might be a valid criticism if I relied on hope, but I don't.

    If by 'model' you mean the "evolve towards less-lethal" model, I think you're on pretty loose ground.

    SARS -> SARS-CoV2 looks reasonably well aligned to the hypothesis.

    There's a fairly large Δ to the genome (as would be expected over 17 years) - the overall difference is 28%-ish, which in raw terms is about the same genomic difference as there is between between humans and domesticated cattle (I know, that's not really apples-to-apples, but it's pretty funny... MOOOO!).

    SARS began in February 2003. Estimates of SARS' CFR in May 2003 were 15% overall, and 55% for those over 60 - see WHO Update 49 - SARS case fatality ratio, incubation period and The Lancet (PDF)).

    Bear in mind that SARS deaths were "deaths of" (aka "deaths-from", "deaths-by") SARS, not "deaths-with" SARS, which is the main basis for the death count for covid19.

    By contrast, an 80 year old with kidney disease who dies of kidney failure and tests positive for covid19, is likely to be counted the covid19 death toll.

    Even so: with dramatic undercounting of cases, and over-counting of deaths-with... the CFR for SARS-CoV2 overall is around the 3% mark. See Worldometers: covid2 death rate.

    Note though, that the unweighted average of Worldometer's countries table is 4.7% (42,158 deaths; 858,916 confirmed cases).

    Still way way lower than 15%, and will fall as more data becomes available.

    SARS was more lethal, but covid19's hit more people and been given credit for thousands of RBIs.

    .

    If you mean epidemiological models more broadly? Pfft.

    First, the most-touted model for the UK (ICL) involves a serial Chicken Little who has overstated everything he's ever been involved in - in 2001 he forecast 130,000 deaths from vCJD, and since then there's been 128 , globally (not 128,000... 128).

    Besides...

    I've seen no forecast modelling that does even the most trivial sensitivity analysis, and none whatsoever that formally investigates the entire stochastic domain of the model.

    There is a really important problem with using measures of central tendency as inputs to a non-linear model: it's a version of Jensen's Inequality, but there is no a priori knowledge about the direction of the inequality, or other important things like whether it's piecewise smooth.

    Point is, such functions are generally not invertible.

    (This was section 2 of one chapter of my thesis from 1997: here's a PDF for those interested in the mathematics - how I wish we could embed Scribd-style PDFs here).

    Here's the main point.

    Consider a model where that can be represented by some function Z(Y, X; θ) = 0
    where
    Y is the vector of endogenous variables;
    X is the vector of exogenous variables;
    Z() is a nonlinear vector function; and
    θ is the vector of parameters of the model.

    Now you want to forecast with this model.
    • Do you want to know the 'average' outcome?
    • Do you want to know what's most likely to happen?

    Is there some way to do either of those things if you only run the model once?

    Answer: no, because there will be multiple combinations of (Y, X;θ) that solve Z.

    https://www.dropbox.com/s/kfnel9jredsnsxf/S2.png?dl=1


    At the end of the day, modellers ought to be producing surfaces, not lines.

    That means they have to fit a distribution to the parameters in their models, and do a fucking Monte Carlo instead of pretending that their one single fucking line has some meaningful statistical interpretation ('most likely', 'on average' etc).

    The fact that they don't do any UQ means they're doing PR, not science.

    .

    Think of a Monte Carlo model of portfolio returns, where you add a random vector of errors to the vector of expected returns of each asset in the portfolio: you do this 1000 times and get 1000 (say) lines.

    The image below is the result: same assets, same portfolio weights, same covariance structure between assets. All that changed is the use of 1000 (joint) return vectors that have the same (joint) variability as the historical returns for the assets in the portfolio. 1000 'pseudo-futures' that behave like the past - and yet the distribution of returns fans out.

    https://www.dropbox.com/s/7w8ruojggz7gxev/Portfolio_1000Forecasts.png?dl=1

    If the errors are drawn from some multivariate copula, each draw has an associated probability.

    You can apply that to the output as a 'height' to each line at each point - at which point you have a forecast surface for portfolio returns.

    A 1000-sample, 20-period Monte of a portfolio with 20 components takes about 28msec to solve on a half-decent machine (like my desktop); doing a 10,000 sample, 24 month, 4 parameter SEIR takes very slightly longer.

    It shits me beyond human endurance to see the public being fed such shit-awful quant. I'm doing something about it - building and mounting a better model - but it will have a market penetration of exactly zero, because there's no market for "Calm the fuck down".
  239. HA says:
    @AnotherDad

    Again, for those who continue to insist that we’re totally getting carried away by fear and panic,
    ...
     
    I think one reason for the divergence of views, is simply that this new Chinese coronavirus is in the "sweet spot" of severity for variance of peoples' reactions to risk and attitudes toward life.

    If this thing was 5 times more lethal, everyone would be on board fighting the plague all out. If it was 5 times less severe it really would be just "a bad flu" and no one would be doing this

    The "it's just the flu" people were nuts, if they meant that in terms of severity. But they aren't wrong about it's basic character and overall effects. It "kills" the old and the sick. Mostly people who, if they didn't die from it, would die from the flu or something else within the next five or ten years.

    I was quite worried about this when i first heard about it. What was going on in Wuhan sounded really bad and i thought "Great, what have the Chinese unleashed on us now!" In mid January, i was back and forth and almost pulled the plug on some international travel in early Feb. that we'd had booked for a couple months, But travelling, when i read about the cluster on the Diamond Princess, and the result--an 80 early old Japanese couple dying ... my worries actually eased. More people have died, but the story remains the same--the elderly. Young people like my kids--the odds are minuscule, and i suspect they are almost all people with serious health problems, probably people who have done stupid stuff like vaping.


    I'm in no sense cheering on old people dying. But it's simply not the same thing as say the Spanish Flu, much less the Black Death, that cut through society like a scythe, killing people in their prime.

    If your entire perspective is only your existence as an individual, and you're in a "target market" then i guess this is super-scary. But i'm a conservative. My life is part of something bigger than me--my family, my nation, my civilization--that existed before me and will--the good Lord willing--continue after me. That's what i care about.

    My dad is in a retirement community in the Seattle area. (Several miles from the place in Kirkland that got hit.) They've got several cases, and he's definitely at risk. I sure don't want him to get it, and even less be killed by it. But ... he's in his 90s, he's lived a good life--great marriage, kids, time with the grandchildren as they grew up. He will die sometime in the next few years. We all go eventually. If he dies from this, it is sad for our family, but hardly the end of the world.

    Me, i've still got a couple/three decades left--i hope. I still have the grandchildren thing to do, and even stuff teach my kids. But if it's my time ... that's unfortunate, a much, much greater loss than my dad, but still not the end of the world.

    My kids are in their 20s. They have their lives yet to lead. They have marriages and children still ahead of them. They are the future. Their lives simple matter much much more.

    If my dad's loss would be a 1, mine would be a 100, but any of my kids' loss would be a million. They are what matters. They are the future. The thread to all that is to come. And this virus--thank goodness--is just not very dangerous to them.

    “I think one reason for the divergence of views, is simply that this new Chinese coronavirus is in the “sweet spot” of severity for variance of peoples’ reactions to risk and attitudes toward life.”

    That’s what seems to be the emerging consensus now, but there was no way of knowing that in advance — I don’t care how minutely anyone dissects the Diamond Princess or chooses to believe China’s paper trail on Wuhan. In fact, there’s still a lot that still needs to be nailed down. When will that vaccine be ready, and if that takes more than a while, how many bites out of the gene pool can this thing take? It’s good that it only seems to be taking out people with other co-morbidities, but even if it leaves you alive with some scarring, that may well be the co-morbidity that allows it (or some other related ailment) to take you out the next time it comes around. (And by the way, not everyone will be OK with simply writing off Italians and Iranians and asthmatics into the sorry-you’re-not-really-w0rth-it category.)

    But my point is that when it comes to exponential growth, even a fairly tight range of uncertainty around that exponent can lead to orders of magnitude in the final outcome. It’s one thing to be off by a factor of two or three when counting the dead in a flue season. Being off by a factor of two or three in R_0 can be far more dire. The fact that so many who are in the “nothingburger” camp can’t even appreciate that makes their overall position that much flimsier. So if anyone is puzzled why so many people seem to be in what they consider to be the alarmist camp, I would argue it’s primarily the failure of those on the other side to come up with anything convincing, even in the case of ordinarily bright people like Epstein and Coulter. Oh yeah, they can also rely on the endorsement of a leader such as Aleksandr Lukashenko on their team. I mean not a day goes by where someone on this site isn’t complaining about why can’t our leaders be more like Lukashenko, am I right?

  240. @petit bourgeois
    Don't worry about what other people think Lot. I've been going full coronavirus commando for a week now whenever I leave the house with an n95 mask and black nitrile gloves. Gradually you'll be seeing more and more people masking up in public, provided anyone can find them.

    Here in sunny southern California, the demographic differences in the use of masks is quite observable.

    For example, in Santa Ana (majority Mexican), on Sunday, the girlfriend had an overwhelming craving for Chile Verde. So we masked and gloved up and drove through the ghetto to 6-7 restaurants for takeout, trying to find the elusive green guisado. After an hour and a half, mission accomplished. I saw one face mask out of hundreds of people.

    Last night we went to Albertsons in Irvine (Chinese, Persian, White community) for some Stolichnaya, and it was far more civilized. About 30% were masked up and they even had lines taped on the floor to distance people in the checkout lines. The difference in how clean and civilized in that demographic was patently obvious.

    The problem is the n95 masks have been hoarded to extinction. My ultra woo woo girlfriend (she makes her own liposomal vitamin C) was prescient enough to find some n95 masks at a lumber store last month. They are for sanding and fiberglass and don't seal perfectly but they're better than nothing.

    If you go to the Culver City-based Moldex website ( https://www.moldex.com/where-to-buy/ ) and try to find a single industrial safety products distributor selling a disposable n95 mask, it's an exercise in futility.

    It may be better to get a full face reusable respirator if this thing goes on forever. I'm thinking of getting one of their series 9000 masks, if I can find one:

    https://www.moldex.com/product/9000-series-reusable-light-weight-full-face-respirator/

    I think that mask will probably be met with considerable social distancing in the checkout lines at the supermarket.

    If this really becomes the seasonal new normal, then PAPR will be the way to go.

    If not for everybody, certainly for healthcare professionals.

    https://www.mopec.com/product/maxair-capr-series-the-no-hose-papr-powered-air-purifying-respirator/

    I think that model was mentioned in one of the “view by a front line doctor” write-ups that was one of Steve’s previous posts.

  241. @ben tillman

    Canada has socialized medicine; the US has healthcare business.

    Canada as a nation has reason to see fewer cases and reduce deaths as that is the function of medicine.

    US as a business conglomerate has reason to see fewer old people and fewer people with multiple comorbidities as this reduces costs and increases profits, which are the functions of for profit businesses.
     
    That makes no sense. "Socialized medicine" isn't medicine; it's a government program -- with the same goals as other government programs, none of which have anything to do with the welfare of the people.

    In the US, old people are the source of the profits.

    I don't get how you could possibly be so confused.

    In the US, old people are the source of the profits.

    Hospitals run at near capacity as is, thanks to old people, sure, and they don’t mind paying customers. But the insurance companies that took over Medicare like old people who don’t get real sick. It will make the system healthier if some of them die off and leave only the healthier old people. Or something.

  242. ‘What is Canada doing right?’

    They’re probably counting differently.

    Since the plague is essentially imaginary, it’s largely up to us to decide how bad it is or isn’t.

  243. @Reg Cæsar

    LOL…. Theres good money in imperialism eh.
     
    Hey, we got imperialism from you. UEL, WWI, and all that. The Spanish-American war and its aftermath (cf. Gen. Smedley Butler) were just riot control.

    Apt student indeed.

  244. @Lot
    Thea:

    Not far off, I’ve never had a record player nor liked SY, but like most middle school boys in the 90s I liked Nirvana and Smashing Pumpkins. Maybe around age 15 I expanded my tastes when I first discovered mp3s, and switched over to classic rock.

    Jenner: wow how many of my comments do you have bookmarked? I got my wish, “cuck” has mostly died out compared to 2016/7. Not a classy term.

    Jenner: wow how many of my comments do you have bookmarked?

    None. I typed “cuck” into your comment history (your bizarre “cuck” complaint was rather memorable—I also wrote a pretty good response at the time). And I remembered that you ‘quit’ the blog (it’s always funny when someone quits in a huff and then returns) so it was easy to see in your comment history when your traffic dropped off. Bingo.

    I got my wish, “cuck” has mostly died out compared to 2016/7.

    Ah, but it will always be relevant because there will always be cucks to be named and shamed. Maybe fewer will be minted now that the concept is well-established. Sapir-Whorf can change lives!

    Not a classy term.

    Cucks aren’t classy people, to say the least. It’s appropriate.

    • Replies: @Lot
    Give it up man, it’s a stale forced meme in 2020.
  245. @Joe Stalin
    “Did you see the two F-16s on the runway"

    Boeing F-18s. Canucks didn't like Boeing for trade reasons and instead of buying new ones bought some used RAAF F-18s recently.

    One thing about their F-18 is that it reflects something you would NEVER see on a Soviet aircraft; instead of just blowing away an errant airliner, the courteous Northerners mounted a spotlight on the starboard side of the fighter so they could SEE the identification on an unidentified plane.

    (Just forward of the cockpit.)

    https://thaimilitaryandasianregion.files.wordpress.com/2016/12/pair1_plfoto.jpg?w=624

    mounted a spotlight on the starboard side of the fighter

    Gonna need a ruling from Reg on that one.

    • Replies: @Joe Stalin
    Okay. I mucked that up. When looking up the usage I saw 'when facing the bow' and interpreted that as an outside observer.

    PORT side of the F-18 fighter it is.

    As in: Chicago Fire Department trucks have a RED light on the PORT side and a GREEN light on the starboard side.

    https://i.ytimg.com/vi/RKm-LhCvqGQ/maxresdefault.jpg
  246. @Jenner Ickham Errican

    Jenner: wow how many of my comments do you have bookmarked?
     
    None. I typed “cuck” into your comment history (your bizarre “cuck” complaint was rather memorable—I also wrote a pretty good response at the time). And I remembered that you ‘quit’ the blog (it’s always funny when someone quits in a huff and then returns) so it was easy to see in your comment history when your traffic dropped off. Bingo.

    I got my wish, “cuck” has mostly died out compared to 2016/7.
     
    Ah, but it will always be relevant because there will always be cucks to be named and shamed. Maybe fewer will be minted now that the concept is well-established. Sapir-Whorf can change lives!

    Not a classy term.
     
    Cucks aren’t classy people, to say the least. It’s appropriate.

    Give it up man, it’s a stale forced meme in 2020.

    • Replies: @Jenner Ickham Errican

    Give it up man, it’s a stale forced meme in 2020.
     
    Whoa. Apparently the word still really bothers you… Why do you painfully identify with “cuck”? What really is going on in the Lot household? :|
  247. @HA
    "That’s a useful review: it shows the hypothesis is perfectly sensible from the perspective of evolutionary biology"

    Don't try and handwave what he said into something sensible. It wasn't.

    I'm well aware of the fact that being too deadly is detrimental to a virus and have frequently pointed out myself that we can certainly hope that this thing will mutate into something milder as may have happened with the Spanish flu and with other diseases. That may be "perfectly sensible" as far as general tendencies in evolution go. But it's absolutely idiotic to assume that this will happen within the space of a few months, as he allegedly did, or indeed, to assign any specific time scale whatsoever, absent some unique understanding of how this thing mutates (and for what it's worth, it seems to be mutating more slowly than expected). AIDS -- a disease Epstein claims to have some weighty knowledge of -- is highly mutable, and fast-evolving, and yet, according to the cited expert, it has stayed deadly over decades. It's only the medical remedies that have served to undercut its death toll. Same goes for rabies, and smallpox.

    So, yeah, hope all you want. But to assume that a model is wrong or inadequate because it doesn't naively incorporate that hope? That's just stupid.

    to assume that a model is wrong or inadequate because it doesn’t naively incorporate that hope

    Might be a valid criticism if I relied on hope, but I don’t.

    If by ‘model’ you mean the “evolve towards less-lethal” model, I think you’re on pretty loose ground.

    SARS -> SARS-CoV2 looks reasonably well aligned to the hypothesis.

    There’s a fairly large Δ to the genome (as would be expected over 17 years) – the overall difference is 28%-ish, which in raw terms is about the same genomic difference as there is between between humans and domesticated cattle (I know, that’s not really apples-to-apples, but it’s pretty funnyMOOOO!).

    SARS began in February 2003. Estimates of SARS’ CFR in May 2003 were 15% overall, and 55% for those over 60 – see WHO Update 49 – SARS case fatality ratio, incubation period and The Lancet (PDF)).

    Bear in mind that SARS deaths were “deaths of” (aka “deaths-from“, “deaths-by“) SARS, not “deaths-with” SARS, which is the main basis for the death count for covid19.

    By contrast, an 80 year old with kidney disease who dies of kidney failure and tests positive for covid19, is likely to be counted the covid19 death toll.

    Even so: with dramatic undercounting of cases, and over-counting of deaths-with… the CFR for SARS-CoV2 overall is around the 3% mark. See Worldometers: covid2 death rate.

    Note though, that the unweighted average of Worldometer’s countries table is 4.7% (42,158 deaths; 858,916 confirmed cases).

    Still way way lower than 15%, and will fall as more data becomes available.

    SARS was more lethal, but covid19’s hit more people and been given credit for thousands of RBIs.

    .

    If you mean epidemiological models more broadly? Pfft.

    First, the most-touted model for the UK (ICL) involves a serial Chicken Little who has overstated everything he’s ever been involved in – in 2001 he forecast 130,000 deaths from vCJD, and since then there’s been 128 , globally (not 128,000… 128).

    Besides…

    I’ve seen no forecast modelling that does even the most trivial sensitivity analysis, and none whatsoever that formally investigates the entire stochastic domain of the model.

    There is a really important problem with using measures of central tendency as inputs to a non-linear model: it’s a version of Jensen’s Inequality, but there is no a priori knowledge about the direction of the inequality, or other important things like whether it’s piecewise smooth.

    Point is, such functions are generally not invertible.

    (This was section 2 of one chapter of my thesis from 1997: here’s a PDF for those interested in the mathematics – how I wish we could embed Scribd-style PDFs here).

    Here’s the main point.

    Consider a model where that can be represented by some function Z(Y, X; θ) = 0
    where
    Y is the vector of endogenous variables;
    X is the vector of exogenous variables;
    Z() is a nonlinear vector function; and
    θ is the vector of parameters of the model.

    Now you want to forecast with this model.
    • Do you want to know the ‘average’ outcome?
    • Do you want to know what’s most likely to happen?

    Is there some way to do either of those things if you only run the model once?

    Answer: no, because there will be multiple combinations of (Y, X;θ) that solve Z.

    At the end of the day, modellers ought to be producing surfaces, not lines.

    That means they have to fit a distribution to the parameters in their models, and do a fucking Monte Carlo instead of pretending that their one single fucking line has some meaningful statistical interpretation (‘most likely’, ‘on average’ etc).

    The fact that they don’t do any UQ means they’re doing PR, not science.

    .

    Think of a Monte Carlo model of portfolio returns, where you add a random vector of errors to the vector of expected returns of each asset in the portfolio: you do this 1000 times and get 1000 (say) lines.

    The image below is the result: same assets, same portfolio weights, same covariance structure between assets. All that changed is the use of 1000 (joint) return vectors that have the same (joint) variability as the historical returns for the assets in the portfolio. 1000 ‘pseudo-futures’ that behave like the past – and yet the distribution of returns fans out.

    If the errors are drawn from some multivariate copula, each draw has an associated probability.

    You can apply that to the output as a ‘height’ to each line at each point – at which point you have a forecast surface for portfolio returns.

    A 1000-sample, 20-period Monte of a portfolio with 20 components takes about 28msec to solve on a half-decent machine (like my desktop); doing a 10,000 sample, 24 month, 4 parameter SEIR takes very slightly longer.

    It shits me beyond human endurance to see the public being fed such shit-awful quant. I’m doing something about it – building and mounting a better model – but it will have a market penetration of exactly zero, because there’s no market for “Calm the fuck down“.

    • Replies: @HA
    "Might be a valid criticism if I relied on hope, but I don’t."

    No, you rely on flailing around and tossing everything at the wall in the desperate hope that something sticks. Don't assume that isn't obvious at this point, or that it's fooling anyone who doesn't want to be fooled. It's Epstein who is insisting that his unsubstantiated hope must be incorporated into the model (whereas, presumably any opposing assumption -- such as the tendency of viruses to develop resistance to therapies -- must get left out). You're just doing a very poor job of defending him.

    As for Monte Carlo, it has its pitfalls -- copula theory and the related inability to fairly model correlations helped caused the credit meltdown a few years back -- but my prediction is that your efforts to come up with something better on the fly is not going to go well, and I don't need many Monte Carlo runs to get a good bead on that. (Note: arguing incessantly over how the mode of the distribution might still be in the "nothingburger" category and ignoring the tails -- which is what a lot of people are still doing, is also not going to fool anyone who doesn't want to be fooled. )

    'I’m doing something about it – building and mounting a better model – but it will have a market penetration of exactly zero, because there’s no market for “Calm the fuck down“'

    Yeah, I'm totally convinced that your model is "better" and that it fairly accounts for anything more than your incoming prejudices. The mere notion that you would vomit out this rush of JSON,...mu=0...and now financial modeling(?) and any other technique or bit of jargon you can feverishly cram into your posts in order to try and convince people you're not a crackpot-- like the proverbial panicked squid squirting out clouds of ink -- and then dare to ask others to "calm the f*ck down" is some pretty primo projection. What's next, Navier-Stokes? Renormalization group?

    Seriously, you need to step back, take a few breaths, and look at yourself in the mirror. Maybe get a pet. Maybe watch the movie "Pi" and learn a lesson or two. Go read about the crackpots who rail against relativity theory or quantum mechanics or "Jewish science" and want to convince the world that their new and improved model is the real way to go. And lay off the caffeine and weed or whatever else is feeding your rage and paranoia. If you honestly think you have something real, get it published and peer reviewed. It'll mean some back and forth, and learning to listen instead of just preach, and that will be hard for you, but give it a shot. Don't try and preprint it on iSailer in the hope that someone will go through it and point out your math errors. It just makes you seem even crazier.

    , @LibertyPlease
    BLA BLA BLA...

    Wheres our outward facing model you 'Derro'??


    Joking aside GT.... Where does one obtain reliable "RBI, HR" numbers? I cant seem to find any coding related numbers.
    , @vhrm
    I tend to agree with you that the projections of doom and gloom are overcooked.

    Further the models are simplistic and unable to model any specific interventions.

    We also hardly know the values of various important parameters about both how infectious or how deadly it is. The values derived from churches, cruise ships and nursing homes vs free living Americans can be very different.

    Alao our testing, outside of NYC, has been crap so far. Even today people with symptoms are being turned away from testing and the turnaround time for tests is upward of a week unless you're hospitalized.
    So our case numbers and the rate of growth mean little right now.

    Anyway, if you enjoy building these models then more power to you, but unless you have fancy media friendly credentials, you're right it's not going to get any broad attention.

    Yes, people in power have launched an unprecedented intervention based on highly speculative numbers and without apparently any clue what the next steps will be, and
    it's enough to drive you crazy if you let it,
    but it's already done.
    There will be no reckoning for them.

    At this time it's prob most productive to try to figure out how to get a slice of this government cheese that we'll be paying for anyway.
  248. @Reg Cæsar

    OTOH, so were New Orleans and Madrid.

     

    Madrid is at the latitude of Philadelphia and Columbus. And Denver. Madrid is also very dry.

    Madrid apparently has pretty bad air pollution. So does Lombardy. Check out this map of NO2 levels:

    NO2 pollution is probably also going to be associated with soot and hydrocarbons too. Living in a high air-pollution area means that even if you don’t smoke at all, you will have the lungs of (at least) a moderate smoker.

  249. @George
    The end of the White Man's nation. They sent a gaggle of cops to break up a children's birthday party on private land, knowing they would only confront women and children, but can't seem to figure out what to do about a traffic intersection blocked off for an auto stunt show. Silly lockdown rules may it easy to find an empty intersection and an audience.

    As to the original question.

    Canada is probably much less densely populated.

    If you compare US and Canadian border communities you see a complete collapse as you cross from Canada into the US. Compare Ontario with Detroit. Why wouldn't you expect Canada to be doing better with Covid?

    IMO, The most significant predictor of death rate is serious preexisting conditions. Canadian healthcare is probably better at controlling health issues early so they don't become serious. FWIW, the US average age is lower than Canada.

    So far Covid has been a scam and enormous power grab. The statistics are hard to pin down. Since only one category of death is reported, finding a source of historical mortality data is hard to find. On planet earth there have been a total of 40,000 Covid deaths, which means Covid is not a significant cause of death. Canada might, very reasonably, be characterizing pneumonia deaths as generic unless there is an abundance of proof that Covid was the only cause, I do not know. I have to admit the possible growth rate, assuming it is not statistical gamesmanship, is troubling. But even the growth rate could due to how deaths from old age are attributed to Covid.

    Canada is probably much less densely populated.
    If you compare US and Canadian border communities you see a complete collapse as you cross from Canada into the US. Compare Ontario with Detroit. Why wouldn’t you expect Canada to be doing better with Covid?

    Canada overall is much less densely populated, but its ecumene-that is, the habitable part, by normal human standards-is more populated than that of the United States.Most of the Continental US east of the Mississippi River and roughly half the land west of it are moderately to highly habitable: Canada’s ecumene is almost entirely within 100 miles of the US border, and parts of that such as Manitoba and much of Saskatchewan and Alberta within that challenge the definition of “habitable” in winter. Canadian cold is brutal- Canadians consider the Dakotas and Wyoming to be moderate in winter, they aren’t joking.

    And Canada has a lot more “New Canadians”-people from places where that kind of cold is unknown. Although there seemed to be a lot of subcons and Africans in part of Fargo I visited last year.

    Canadian health care is just not as good as that in the US in any regard, though the bigger cities do deal with emergencies reasonably well. It’s not a terrible country by world standards, but given the choice for an outsider between going there or here it’s hard to see in what circumstances Canada would have the advantage.

    • Replies: @sb
    Well as a non North American I don't have a dog in this USA vs Canada fight .
    The best objective measures of a country's health care system are it's life expectancy stats and it's infant mortality rate. ( and ,yes, I'm aware that there are other variables in play )
    Canada wins .
    Yes I know people travel to the US for treatment for very rare conditions but for the everyday just about any other Western country is to be preferred .
    Look up some statistics .
  250. @Reg Cæsar

    What Is Canada Doing Right?
     
    What is the Central African Republic doing right?

    Central African Republic
    Confirmed: 3
    Deaths: 0
    Recovered: 0
    Active: 3


    https://www.arcgis.com/apps/opsdashboard/index.html#/bda7594740fd40299423467b48e9ecf6
     

    The Central African Republic has such a boring name that it should be written as central african republic.

    • Replies: @Reg Cæsar

    The Central African Republic has such a boring name that it should be written as central african republic.
     
    It's central, and African, but how is it a republic? We hardly are anymore.

    Years ago, I did a few temp shifts for a company called Product Development Corporation. Their business? Delivering phone books.

    https://www.deliverphonebooks.com


    Marketing gurus Al Ries and Jack Trout called this sort of name the corporate equivalent of an unlisted telephone number. Which is quite ironic in PDC's case.

    What is the CAR hiding? Its imperial past?

    https://en.m.wikipedia.org/wiki/Central_African_Empire

    Every African country but Somalia qualifies as an empire, so the name fit.
  251. @Lot
    Give it up man, it’s a stale forced meme in 2020.

    Give it up man, it’s a stale forced meme in 2020.

    Whoa. Apparently the word still really bothers you… Why do you painfully identify with “cuck”? What really is going on in the Lot household? 😐

  252. @YetAnotherAnon
    Meanwhile, in the Land Of My Absent Fathers... if you're old and get CV19, don't bother calling an ambulance!

    https://www.theguardian.com/society/2020/mar/31/welsh-surgery-says-sorry-after-telling-the-very-ill-not-to-call-999


    An NHS health board has apologised after a GP surgery in Wales recommended patients with serious illnesses complete “do not resuscitate” forms in case their health deteriorated after contracting coronavirus.

    Llynfi surgery, in Maesteg near Port Talbot, wrote to a “small number” of patients on Friday to ask them to complete a “DNACPR” – do not attempt cardiopulmonary resuscitation – form to ensure emergency services would not be called if they contracted Covid-19 and their health deteriorated.

    This is a very difficult letter for the practice to write to you,” it read, noting people with illnesses such as incurable cancer, motor neurone disease and pulmonary fibrosis were at a much greater risk from the virus.

    We would therefore like to complete a DNACPR form for you which we can share … which will mean that in the event of a sudden deterioration in your condition because [of] Covid infection or disease progression the emergency services will not be called and resuscitation attempts to restart your heart or breathing will not be attempted,” it continued.

    Completing a DNACPR will have several benefits,” it claimed.

    “1/ your GP and more importantly your friends and family will know not to call 999.

    2/ scarce ambulance resources can be targeted to the young and fit who have a greater chance.
     

    Why wouldn’t you, if resources become scarce, focus those on the young and those with more chance of surviving. This is a mentality I utterly fail to understand. Actually a lot of people are perfectly comfortable with when it is their time.

    • Replies: @YetAnotherAnon
    "a lot of people are perfectly comfortable with when it is their time"

    Some people yes, others no. My aunt is 92 and still enjoys life. I would be furious if she got a letter like that.
  253. @Kratoklastes

    For all we know Canada is coding deaths to hide coronavirus victims
     
    Nobody's got any incentive to downplay deaths: they are all coding on the 'with' side of 'of/with', albeit less systematically than the Italians.

    If they don't, it will become clear that this is a less-lethal contagion than 2009 H1N1. On an 'apples to apples' comparison, H1N1 was worse at this stage, when the cost measure is properly defined ('loss of quality-adjusted years of life').

    If the cost for covid19 excludes 'died-with', H1N1pdm09 wins by a gigantic margin, because somewhere around 90% of covid19 deaths are 'died-with', not 'died-from' - whereas all of H1N1pdm09's deaths were died-from.

    If that happens, suddenly all the clampdowns make no sense: society survived 2009 without deliberately generating economic conditions that will, if maintained for more than a month[1], rival the Great Depression.

    This is all of a piece with the types of data being presented to the schlubs:
    • 'confirmed cases' - sub-acute and asymps (who don't show up at hostpitals) aren't counted;
    • 'new confirmed cases' implies that a positive test today was contracted today;
    • 'died with': RBIs being counted as home runs;
    • CFR ('died-with'/'confirmed cases'): that's RBIs/hits as opposed to HRs/at-bats (when HRs/pitches would be a better metric).

    This makes everything look much much worse than it is.

    FWIW they missed a trick: if they used 'died-with'/'resolved cases', they would get even bigger numbers (8% for Canada; 37% for the US).

    You read that right: of the 'confirmed cases' considered 'complete' in the US, 37% have died.

    If the media tried to run that scam, even Yanks would notice that such a number is preposterous and indicative of deliberate bias and panic-mongering.

    It's absolutely clear that the 'less-extreme' panic-mongering is deliberate.

    It's crafted for the fuckwits who watch morning TV ('The View' being pretty representative). If you're a person who can't do sums, the numbers you hear (and the way they're phrased) encourages belief that the numbers 'justify' all proposed interference in the economy.

    This is because the 'talent' on The View is as innumerate (and as prone to hysteria) as their audience: it is easy for them to ignore things they can't compute.


    [1] There is a risk that the global economy is already doomed to economic conditions worse than the Great Depression.

    There is a very high probability that there will be some 'potline'-type problems when restrictions are removed. Significant parts of global production chains might have characteristics like aluminium smelters - where a one-day interruption in power to the potline causes a 'freeze' that takes a month to fix and costs ~3 months production (one lost from emptying the potline; one foregone by downtime; one lost due to costs of remediation).

    In Britain we record deaths with Covid rather than just by, also yesterday the Office of National Statistics said they would dig around and also record deaths that weren’t in hospitals but have happened elsewhere. It wasn’t clear to me how they would determine if they died with covid, presumably they would have been tested. There was a controversy where a twenty one year old girl died of a heart attack and, against the doctors wishes, the coroner recorded covid because she had had a cough. The left is very invested in covid here so this worries me.

  254. @Dave Pinsen
    Aren’t there a lot of Chinese and mild weather on Canada’s west coast (Vancouver area)?

    I live on the west coast of Canada. We got hit by 3 strains in feb/march – first Chinese, then Iranian, then southern European. Contact tracing of the first few spreaders, then just mandatory quarantine for all travelers. The largest percentage of fatalities is still in long term care facilities for the elderly, which shows they really aren’t set up like hospitals for sanitation and equipment.

    Medical assistance and a hospital stay is essentially free, doctors nurses and Provincial Health Officers are competent. They still remember the SARS outbreak, and sprung into action early, knowing what was needed. The messaging from government has none of the partisan hogwash we see in the states, we’re all in this together and have been since it started leaking out of Wuhan. There has been a lack of extensive testing. I’ve been sick with “the flu” most of March, but since the symptoms were so similar I had to pretend I had Cv19 anyway and self-isolate so my family was safe.

    The whole province of BC is fairly obedient about social distancing, all schools and unessential business now shut down. Painful for the economy. Rural areas and coastal islands have all put out the message in urban media to stay home, don’t visit. All aboriginal villages are pretty much no-go zones now, with road blocks. They still remember the smallpox-infested Hudson Bay blankets of 1865 that almost wiped them all out. Americans who own Canadian property are being turned away at the border. Sorry, try later.

    Everyone who can is planting a garden, fishing, looking out for their neighbours. We’ll do OK. There’s not a lot of guns. There’s worry, but not so much fear.

  255. sb says:
    @donvonburg

    Canada is probably much less densely populated.
    If you compare US and Canadian border communities you see a complete collapse as you cross from Canada into the US. Compare Ontario with Detroit. Why wouldn’t you expect Canada to be doing better with Covid?
     
    Canada overall is much less densely populated, but its ecumene-that is, the habitable part, by normal human standards-is more populated than that of the United States.Most of the Continental US east of the Mississippi River and roughly half the land west of it are moderately to highly habitable: Canada's ecumene is almost entirely within 100 miles of the US border, and parts of that such as Manitoba and much of Saskatchewan and Alberta within that challenge the definition of "habitable" in winter. Canadian cold is brutal- Canadians consider the Dakotas and Wyoming to be moderate in winter, they aren't joking.

    And Canada has a lot more "New Canadians"-people from places where that kind of cold is unknown. Although there seemed to be a lot of subcons and Africans in part of Fargo I visited last year.

    Canadian health care is just not as good as that in the US in any regard, though the bigger cities do deal with emergencies reasonably well. It's not a terrible country by world standards, but given the choice for an outsider between going there or here it's hard to see in what circumstances Canada would have the advantage.

    Well as a non North American I don’t have a dog in this USA vs Canada fight .
    The best objective measures of a country’s health care system are it’s life expectancy stats and it’s infant mortality rate. ( and ,yes, I’m aware that there are other variables in play )
    Canada wins .
    Yes I know people travel to the US for treatment for very rare conditions but for the everyday just about any other Western country is to be preferred .
    Look up some statistics .

  256. @Bragadocious
    Hey dingbat, the only reason you can have the 30th best health system in the world is because you slack on your NATO contributions. We're in essence paying for your colonoscopies. The CBC agrees with my anal-ysis by the way.

    If you were a grown-up country and funded a proper military you'd have the health system of Bolivia, no offense to Bolivia.

    Seems to be the latest bullshit meme — everyone who isn’t stupid enough to blow hundreds of billions of dollars annually on worthless weapons systems is thereby having their health care systems funded by Uncle Sam. Speaking of which, presumably you saw that one of our priceless aircraft carriers has been crippled by coronavirus.

    What are we protecting Canada from, incidentally? Polar bears?

    • Replies: @Bragadocious
    A lot of Canuckleheads claim the biggest military threat they face is from the United States. Which begs the question, why are they in NATO? Oh right, so we can pay for their colonoscopies.

    Trump is right, we're the suckers. We've always been the suckers.
  257. @bruce county
    All you fools can say what you want about Canada... I know that when I travel I am not shunned or frowned apon because my back pack has a Canadian flag patch,. In fact I know several Americans that wear a Canadian patch when they travel. Just saying.

    Anyway .. I gotta patch this hole in my igloo roof and put some more foil on the antenna.

    You want your Lester Pearson Supermarket Logo, you can keep your Lester Pearson Supermarket Logo.

    • Replies: @Jim Don Bob
    My Canadian grandfather, who commanded a horse drawn artillery battery in WWI, called the new flag Pearson's Pennant.
    , @bruce county
    Just for that I think I will burn your flag today. LOL..
  258. Anonymous[173] • Disclaimer says:
    @The Wild Geese Howard

    [1] There is a risk that the global economy is already doomed to economic conditions worse than the Great Depression.
     
    You mean like the complete collapse in US auto sales?

    https://www.bloomberg.com/news/articles/2020-03-31/automakers-are-about-to-give-inkling-of-the-sales-collapse-ahead

    My heart bleeds for automobile stealerships.

  259. @Matra
    Canada doesn’t get as many incoming travelers as the US

    True. Though the travellers it does get tend to be more concentrated in a few Canadian cities than would be the case with those visiting the US.

    nor does their population travel the globe as much as people in the US do so they had less opportunity to get the super spreaders that seem to be doing so much damage here.

    Canadians are far more likely to travel internationally than Americans. Something like 60% of all trips are outside of Canada - it's absurdly expensive travelling within Canada by plane - with over two thirds of Canadians having valid passports. Almost all the early cases of the virus in Ontario involved people who had just returned from the US, Iran, Italy, or China or their close relatives.

    Honestly, you fuckers from Canada have passports so you can buy cheap Levi’s I here.

    • Replies: @bruce county
    Yep.. we want your Levis....You go get 'em Cletus..
  260. @Federalist

    ...the weather is also weird this year….normally its cold as hell right now and pouring rain…
     
    You're saying that it's normally "cold as hell" in New Orleans in late March?

    I apologize for the ambiguity….

    Cold for me is 30 to 50F w rain…..

    I’m used to 100F w 95% humidity….(literally)…..it wreaks havoc on my joints and the various healed broke bones i got as a dumb kid….

    Don’t even let me tell you about the horrible allergies down here….

    • Replies: @Federalist
    Now you're telling me that it's typically 30-50 degrees Fahrenheit in New Orleans in late March? It's not.
  261. @ben tillman

    Considering free market types like to scream murder at Canada’s health care system they seem to be doing a better job at containing this garbage than the incompetents and cluster fu–s running our health care system.
     
    Where do you get the idea that Canada's healthcare system has anything to do with New Orleans' popularity with tourists in mid-to-late February? Or with anything else relevant to "containing this garbage"?

    Mr. Tillman: Steve said Canada had a fifth the rate we had…..the point i was trying to make was that their health care system is derided as “arthtritic” and backwards by the Sean Hannity types “because socialism”….

    My question was….if they’re so backwards why is their spread rate worse than ours?

    Sorry about the ambiguity….

    • Replies: @ben tillman
    Thank you for the polite reply to my less-polite comment.
  262. @Art Deco
    You want your Lester Pearson Supermarket Logo, you can keep your Lester Pearson Supermarket Logo.

    My Canadian grandfather, who commanded a horse drawn artillery battery in WWI, called the new flag Pearson’s Pennant.

  263. @Buffalo Joe
    bruce, a real canuck would have mentioned poutine. However, I do like the Canadian Ballet. Let's see how many here know about that, eh?

    Ahhh, fond memories of the Ballet!!! So easy to cross back and forth over the border, a far more civilized time….

    Coming in to O Canada: “Citizen of what country?” “US” “Where are you going?” “The ballet!!” “Have fun!”

    Coming back: “Citizen of what country?” “US” “Where did you go?” “The ballet and Brewers Retail!!” “Bringing anything back?” “Yep, a case of Brador and a case of Stock Ale” “Ok, go ahead”.

    Brador and Stock Ale are no longer brewed, sadly. The ballet is still there, but the border is now like Checkpoint Charlie in Berlin during the Cold War and just not worth the BS.

    • Replies: @Buffalo Joe
    Big Jim, thank you for the reply. When we were teens, the 60s, we used to walk over the Peace Bridge and hitch to the beaches. It was like visiting another state, except with funny looking money. Buy beer only at the Brewer's Retail, alcohol at the Liquor Board and the worst cigarette ever.
  264. HA says:
    @Kratoklastes

    to assume that a model is wrong or inadequate because it doesn’t naively incorporate that hope
     
    Might be a valid criticism if I relied on hope, but I don't.

    If by 'model' you mean the "evolve towards less-lethal" model, I think you're on pretty loose ground.

    SARS -> SARS-CoV2 looks reasonably well aligned to the hypothesis.

    There's a fairly large Δ to the genome (as would be expected over 17 years) - the overall difference is 28%-ish, which in raw terms is about the same genomic difference as there is between between humans and domesticated cattle (I know, that's not really apples-to-apples, but it's pretty funny... MOOOO!).

    SARS began in February 2003. Estimates of SARS' CFR in May 2003 were 15% overall, and 55% for those over 60 - see WHO Update 49 - SARS case fatality ratio, incubation period and The Lancet (PDF)).

    Bear in mind that SARS deaths were "deaths of" (aka "deaths-from", "deaths-by") SARS, not "deaths-with" SARS, which is the main basis for the death count for covid19.

    By contrast, an 80 year old with kidney disease who dies of kidney failure and tests positive for covid19, is likely to be counted the covid19 death toll.

    Even so: with dramatic undercounting of cases, and over-counting of deaths-with... the CFR for SARS-CoV2 overall is around the 3% mark. See Worldometers: covid2 death rate.

    Note though, that the unweighted average of Worldometer's countries table is 4.7% (42,158 deaths; 858,916 confirmed cases).

    Still way way lower than 15%, and will fall as more data becomes available.

    SARS was more lethal, but covid19's hit more people and been given credit for thousands of RBIs.

    .

    If you mean epidemiological models more broadly? Pfft.

    First, the most-touted model for the UK (ICL) involves a serial Chicken Little who has overstated everything he's ever been involved in - in 2001 he forecast 130,000 deaths from vCJD, and since then there's been 128 , globally (not 128,000... 128).

    Besides...

    I've seen no forecast modelling that does even the most trivial sensitivity analysis, and none whatsoever that formally investigates the entire stochastic domain of the model.

    There is a really important problem with using measures of central tendency as inputs to a non-linear model: it's a version of Jensen's Inequality, but there is no a priori knowledge about the direction of the inequality, or other important things like whether it's piecewise smooth.

    Point is, such functions are generally not invertible.

    (This was section 2 of one chapter of my thesis from 1997: here's a PDF for those interested in the mathematics - how I wish we could embed Scribd-style PDFs here).

    Here's the main point.

    Consider a model where that can be represented by some function Z(Y, X; θ) = 0
    where
    Y is the vector of endogenous variables;
    X is the vector of exogenous variables;
    Z() is a nonlinear vector function; and
    θ is the vector of parameters of the model.

    Now you want to forecast with this model.
    • Do you want to know the 'average' outcome?
    • Do you want to know what's most likely to happen?

    Is there some way to do either of those things if you only run the model once?

    Answer: no, because there will be multiple combinations of (Y, X;θ) that solve Z.

    https://www.dropbox.com/s/kfnel9jredsnsxf/S2.png?dl=1


    At the end of the day, modellers ought to be producing surfaces, not lines.

    That means they have to fit a distribution to the parameters in their models, and do a fucking Monte Carlo instead of pretending that their one single fucking line has some meaningful statistical interpretation ('most likely', 'on average' etc).

    The fact that they don't do any UQ means they're doing PR, not science.

    .

    Think of a Monte Carlo model of portfolio returns, where you add a random vector of errors to the vector of expected returns of each asset in the portfolio: you do this 1000 times and get 1000 (say) lines.

    The image below is the result: same assets, same portfolio weights, same covariance structure between assets. All that changed is the use of 1000 (joint) return vectors that have the same (joint) variability as the historical returns for the assets in the portfolio. 1000 'pseudo-futures' that behave like the past - and yet the distribution of returns fans out.

    https://www.dropbox.com/s/7w8ruojggz7gxev/Portfolio_1000Forecasts.png?dl=1

    If the errors are drawn from some multivariate copula, each draw has an associated probability.

    You can apply that to the output as a 'height' to each line at each point - at which point you have a forecast surface for portfolio returns.

    A 1000-sample, 20-period Monte of a portfolio with 20 components takes about 28msec to solve on a half-decent machine (like my desktop); doing a 10,000 sample, 24 month, 4 parameter SEIR takes very slightly longer.

    It shits me beyond human endurance to see the public being fed such shit-awful quant. I'm doing something about it - building and mounting a better model - but it will have a market penetration of exactly zero, because there's no market for "Calm the fuck down".

    “Might be a valid criticism if I relied on hope, but I don’t.”

    No, you rely on flailing around and tossing everything at the wall in the desperate hope that something sticks. Don’t assume that isn’t obvious at this point, or that it’s fooling anyone who doesn’t want to be fooled. It’s Epstein who is insisting that his unsubstantiated hope must be incorporated into the model (whereas, presumably any opposing assumption — such as the tendency of viruses to develop resistance to therapies — must get left out). You’re just doing a very poor job of defending him.

    As for Monte Carlo, it has its pitfalls — copula theory and the related inability to fairly model correlations helped caused the credit meltdown a few years back — but my prediction is that your efforts to come up with something better on the fly is not going to go well, and I don’t need many Monte Carlo runs to get a good bead on that. (Note: arguing incessantly over how the mode of the distribution might still be in the “nothingburger” category and ignoring the tails — which is what a lot of people are still doing, is also not going to fool anyone who doesn’t want to be fooled. )

    ‘I’m doing something about it – building and mounting a better model – but it will have a market penetration of exactly zero, because there’s no market for “Calm the fuck down“’

    Yeah, I’m totally convinced that your model is “better” and that it fairly accounts for anything more than your incoming prejudices. The mere notion that you would vomit out this rush of JSON,…mu=0…and now financial modeling(?) and any other technique or bit of jargon you can feverishly cram into your posts in order to try and convince people you’re not a crackpot– like the proverbial panicked squid squirting out clouds of ink — and then dare to ask others to “calm the f*ck down” is some pretty primo projection. What’s next, Navier-Stokes? Renormalization group?

    Seriously, you need to step back, take a few breaths, and look at yourself in the mirror. Maybe get a pet. Maybe watch the movie “Pi” and learn a lesson or two. Go read about the crackpots who rail against relativity theory or quantum mechanics or “Jewish science” and want to convince the world that their new and improved model is the real way to go. And lay off the caffeine and weed or whatever else is feeding your rage and paranoia. If you honestly think you have something real, get it published and peer reviewed. It’ll mean some back and forth, and learning to listen instead of just preach, and that will be hard for you, but give it a shot. Don’t try and preprint it on iSailer in the hope that someone will go through it and point out your math errors. It just makes you seem even crazier.

  265. @Art Deco
    You want your Lester Pearson Supermarket Logo, you can keep your Lester Pearson Supermarket Logo.

    Just for that I think I will burn your flag today. LOL..

  266. @Jenner Ickham Errican

    mounted a spotlight on the starboard side of the fighter
     
    Gonna need a ruling from Reg on that one.

    Okay. I mucked that up. When looking up the usage I saw ‘when facing the bow’ and interpreted that as an outside observer.

    PORT side of the F-18 fighter it is.

    As in: Chicago Fire Department trucks have a RED light on the PORT side and a GREEN light on the starboard side.

    • Replies: @Jenner Ickham Errican

    Okay. I mucked that up.
     
    Hahaha, no worries. It was more of a shout-out to Reg. :)
  267. @AnotherDad

    Central African Republic
    Confirmed: 3
    Deaths: 0
    Recovered: 0
    Active: 3
     
    C-A-R! C-A-R! C-A-R!

    Africa is a great test of this. Africa has zero chance of mitigating this in any significant way, nor of providing adequate health care. They've got the weather in their favor. But that's it. So it will be pretty much a "let it rip" scenario.

    No doubt Covid-19 will "kill" millions of Africans.

    But then guess what:

    The heroic women of Africa will rally with their wombs! ... and defeat this racist, colonialist attack by the "white" man.

    You'll look at the demographics and population of Africa in a few years and they'll be no indication Covid-19 was an issue.

    No doubt Covid-19 will “kill” millions of Africans.

    But then guess what:

    The heroic women of Africa will rally with their wombs! … and defeat this racist, colonialist attack by the “white” man.

    You’ll look at the demographics and population of Africa in a few years and they’ll be no indication Covid-19 was an issue.

    Right. Nothing’s going to stop Africa from pumping out more of its chief product, i.e. Africans. As YetAnotherAnon points out, Ethiopa has more than doubled its population since the famine that so exercised the emotions of whites in the mid-80s.

    On the other hand, the economic fallout from this epidemic will will result in many white couples postponing or abandoning their plans to have families. Its demographic impact for us will be real and permanent.

  268. @PiltdownMan

    The German city Jena has just declared masks obligatory in public.

     

    Not the first time they've done that in Jena, we can be pretty sure.

    https://i.pinimg.com/originals/e6/c4/25/e6c425ed0b4c945a73c31e81db76eff0.jpg

    To the contrary, that’s Doctor Schnabel from Rome, from a 17th century print by Peter Fürst.

    (Aren’t some Italians reputed to have rather large beaks?)

  269. @ScarletNumber
    The Central African Republic has such a boring name that it should be written as central african republic.

    The Central African Republic has such a boring name that it should be written as central african republic.

    It’s central, and African, but how is it a republic? We hardly are anymore.

    Years ago, I did a few temp shifts for a company called Product Development Corporation. Their business? Delivering phone books.

    https://www.deliverphonebooks.com

    Marketing gurus Al Ries and Jack Trout called this sort of name the corporate equivalent of an unlisted telephone number. Which is quite ironic in PDC’s case.

    What is the CAR hiding? Its imperial past?

    https://en.m.wikipedia.org/wiki/Central_African_Empire

    Every African country but Somalia qualifies as an empire, so the name fit.

    • Replies: @ScarletNumber

    It’s central, and African, but how is it a republic? We hardly are anymore.
     
    As Meat Loaf once sang, two out of three ain't bad. The Holy Roman Empire had none of them.

    Also, since China and North Korea call themselves republics as well, republic is more a term of art than anything else.
  270. @Neoconned
    I apologize for the ambiguity....

    Cold for me is 30 to 50F w rain.....

    I'm used to 100F w 95% humidity....(literally).....it wreaks havoc on my joints and the various healed broke bones i got as a dumb kid....

    Don't even let me tell you about the horrible allergies down here....

    Now you’re telling me that it’s typically 30-50 degrees Fahrenheit in New Orleans in late March? It’s not.

    • Replies: @Neoconned
    Has been the last few years....or at least thru mid March. Very very wet too...
  271. @Joe Stalin
    Okay. I mucked that up. When looking up the usage I saw 'when facing the bow' and interpreted that as an outside observer.

    PORT side of the F-18 fighter it is.

    As in: Chicago Fire Department trucks have a RED light on the PORT side and a GREEN light on the starboard side.

    https://i.ytimg.com/vi/RKm-LhCvqGQ/maxresdefault.jpg

    Okay. I mucked that up.

    Hahaha, no worries. It was more of a shout-out to Reg. 🙂

  272. @Stebbing Heuer
    A significant proportion of Americans live in third world conditions.

    You shouldn't be surprised when this produces third world results.

    You mean with open sewers and acres of tin huts? Bullshit.

  273. @dr kill
    Honestly, you fuckers from Canada have passports so you can buy cheap Levi's I here.

    Yep.. we want your Levis….You go get ’em Cletus..

  274. @keypusher
    Seems to be the latest bullshit meme -- everyone who isn't stupid enough to blow hundreds of billions of dollars annually on worthless weapons systems is thereby having their health care systems funded by Uncle Sam. Speaking of which, presumably you saw that one of our priceless aircraft carriers has been crippled by coronavirus.

    What are we protecting Canada from, incidentally? Polar bears?

    A lot of Canuckleheads claim the biggest military threat they face is from the United States. Which begs the question, why are they in NATO? Oh right, so we can pay for their colonoscopies.

    Trump is right, we’re the suckers. We’ve always been the suckers.

  275. @Anonymous
    Is that a hockey reference?

    323, In Fort Erie there are “Gentlemen Clubs” where the staff, well the female staff, is buck naked. Not a stitch of clothing, oh, and they dance. Hence the name “Canadian Ballet.” They also have golf outings where your female caddy is buck naked. Culture at its finest. And who is keeping score.

  276. anon[191] • Disclaimer says:
    @Bill Jones
    5 questions that need to be asked.
    https://www.anti-empire.com/german-infectologist-decimates-covid-doomsday-cult-in-open-letter-to-merkel/

    Bonus: Has Merkel's best backpfeifengesicht face picture.

    The reasons Canada has a lower infection rate than the US are probably numerous. Population density I’m sure has something to do about it and the fact that Canada has a much smaller, more efficient health care system that can deal with health issues much more quickly and efficiently. The US is like a big lumbering dinosaur and the first question that people start asking when they’re faced with a health crisis like this is, who’s gonna pay for it? The first question that the politicians start asking is, how can my friends and myself make a profit from it? The 50 governors all go on doing their own thing dealing with the crisis for about a month and then after hundreds of hyperbolized “we’re all gonna die” stories coming from the airwaves the President finally decides to take Federal action on the matter. To sum it up, smaller, more centralized countries with universal health care tend to be more efficient at dealing with health crisis than the US, with its hodge podge system with complex webs of overlapping jurisdictions and politicians that are horribly at odds with one another at the expense of the citizens.

  277. @Lot
    Thea:

    Not far off, I’ve never had a record player nor liked SY, but like most middle school boys in the 90s I liked Nirvana and Smashing Pumpkins. Maybe around age 15 I expanded my tastes when I first discovered mp3s, and switched over to classic rock.

    Jenner: wow how many of my comments do you have bookmarked? I got my wish, “cuck” has mostly died out compared to 2016/7. Not a classy term.

    O-OT:

    The conservatives who sell out the American people are more akin to the woman who cuckolds her husband than the cuckold himself. “Cuckservative” is (was?) just an effective jab at those traitors.

    We regular Americans are more in the position of the cuckolded husband, paying for the misdeeds of she whom we trusted.

    • Replies: @Corvinus
    "Cuckservative” is (was?) just an effective jab at those traitors."

    Actually, that term was generally employed by low IQ types.

    "We regular Americans..."

    So you're putting yourself in a separate group? Curious, how do you define "irregular Americans"?
  278. anon[191] • Disclaimer says:
    @indocon
    Canada is doing better probably for the same reason Germany and Poland are, latitude.

    Expect Turkey to be the next disaster zone, it falls squarely in that band of high infection rate latitude.

    Places on the same latitude can have vastly different climates. Bergen, Norway is at around 60 degrees north but has a rainy cool climate not unlike Coos Bay, Oregon coast which is around 43 degrees north. Buffalo New York is at around 42 degrees north but has hot humid summers and cold snowy winters. Comparing places on the earth using latitude and coordinating this with climate is absurd. The only thing that places on earth with similar latitude have in common is hours of daylight at specific times of year.

  279. @a Newsreader
    O-OT:

    The conservatives who sell out the American people are more akin to the woman who cuckolds her husband than the cuckold himself. "Cuckservative" is (was?) just an effective jab at those traitors.

    We regular Americans are more in the position of the cuckolded husband, paying for the misdeeds of she whom we trusted.

    “Cuckservative” is (was?) just an effective jab at those traitors.”

    Actually, that term was generally employed by low IQ types.

    “We regular Americans…”

    So you’re putting yourself in a separate group? Curious, how do you define “irregular Americans”?

  280. @Kratoklastes

    to assume that a model is wrong or inadequate because it doesn’t naively incorporate that hope
     
    Might be a valid criticism if I relied on hope, but I don't.

    If by 'model' you mean the "evolve towards less-lethal" model, I think you're on pretty loose ground.

    SARS -> SARS-CoV2 looks reasonably well aligned to the hypothesis.

    There's a fairly large Δ to the genome (as would be expected over 17 years) - the overall difference is 28%-ish, which in raw terms is about the same genomic difference as there is between between humans and domesticated cattle (I know, that's not really apples-to-apples, but it's pretty funny... MOOOO!).

    SARS began in February 2003. Estimates of SARS' CFR in May 2003 were 15% overall, and 55% for those over 60 - see WHO Update 49 - SARS case fatality ratio, incubation period and The Lancet (PDF)).

    Bear in mind that SARS deaths were "deaths of" (aka "deaths-from", "deaths-by") SARS, not "deaths-with" SARS, which is the main basis for the death count for covid19.

    By contrast, an 80 year old with kidney disease who dies of kidney failure and tests positive for covid19, is likely to be counted the covid19 death toll.

    Even so: with dramatic undercounting of cases, and over-counting of deaths-with... the CFR for SARS-CoV2 overall is around the 3% mark. See Worldometers: covid2 death rate.

    Note though, that the unweighted average of Worldometer's countries table is 4.7% (42,158 deaths; 858,916 confirmed cases).

    Still way way lower than 15%, and will fall as more data becomes available.

    SARS was more lethal, but covid19's hit more people and been given credit for thousands of RBIs.

    .

    If you mean epidemiological models more broadly? Pfft.

    First, the most-touted model for the UK (ICL) involves a serial Chicken Little who has overstated everything he's ever been involved in - in 2001 he forecast 130,000 deaths from vCJD, and since then there's been 128 , globally (not 128,000... 128).

    Besides...

    I've seen no forecast modelling that does even the most trivial sensitivity analysis, and none whatsoever that formally investigates the entire stochastic domain of the model.

    There is a really important problem with using measures of central tendency as inputs to a non-linear model: it's a version of Jensen's Inequality, but there is no a priori knowledge about the direction of the inequality, or other important things like whether it's piecewise smooth.

    Point is, such functions are generally not invertible.

    (This was section 2 of one chapter of my thesis from 1997: here's a PDF for those interested in the mathematics - how I wish we could embed Scribd-style PDFs here).

    Here's the main point.

    Consider a model where that can be represented by some function Z(Y, X; θ) = 0
    where
    Y is the vector of endogenous variables;
    X is the vector of exogenous variables;
    Z() is a nonlinear vector function; and
    θ is the vector of parameters of the model.

    Now you want to forecast with this model.
    • Do you want to know the 'average' outcome?
    • Do you want to know what's most likely to happen?

    Is there some way to do either of those things if you only run the model once?

    Answer: no, because there will be multiple combinations of (Y, X;θ) that solve Z.

    https://www.dropbox.com/s/kfnel9jredsnsxf/S2.png?dl=1


    At the end of the day, modellers ought to be producing surfaces, not lines.

    That means they have to fit a distribution to the parameters in their models, and do a fucking Monte Carlo instead of pretending that their one single fucking line has some meaningful statistical interpretation ('most likely', 'on average' etc).

    The fact that they don't do any UQ means they're doing PR, not science.

    .

    Think of a Monte Carlo model of portfolio returns, where you add a random vector of errors to the vector of expected returns of each asset in the portfolio: you do this 1000 times and get 1000 (say) lines.

    The image below is the result: same assets, same portfolio weights, same covariance structure between assets. All that changed is the use of 1000 (joint) return vectors that have the same (joint) variability as the historical returns for the assets in the portfolio. 1000 'pseudo-futures' that behave like the past - and yet the distribution of returns fans out.

    https://www.dropbox.com/s/7w8ruojggz7gxev/Portfolio_1000Forecasts.png?dl=1

    If the errors are drawn from some multivariate copula, each draw has an associated probability.

    You can apply that to the output as a 'height' to each line at each point - at which point you have a forecast surface for portfolio returns.

    A 1000-sample, 20-period Monte of a portfolio with 20 components takes about 28msec to solve on a half-decent machine (like my desktop); doing a 10,000 sample, 24 month, 4 parameter SEIR takes very slightly longer.

    It shits me beyond human endurance to see the public being fed such shit-awful quant. I'm doing something about it - building and mounting a better model - but it will have a market penetration of exactly zero, because there's no market for "Calm the fuck down".

    BLA BLA BLA…

    Wheres our outward facing model you ‘Derro’??

    Joking aside GT…. Where does one obtain reliable “RBI, HR” numbers? I cant seem to find any coding related numbers.

    • Replies: @Kratoklastes

    Where does one obtain reliable “RBI, HR” numbers? I cant seem to find any coding related numbers.
     
    It's really hard to get good data, and a very large proportion of the evidence is small-N or anecdotes (e.g., "All 5 deaths under 30 had terminal cancer").

    The 'tendency' evidence are the twin facts that deaths occur with a massive 'tilt' favouring two things -
    • the presence of clinically-relevant chronic disease; and
    • reasonably advanced age (70+ seems to be the big breakpoint).

    The relevant authorities seem reluctant to furnish data in ways that properly permit a good test of the 'of/with' split, too - the very definition of 'covid19 death' is incredibly biased and false-positive-friendly, which seems deliberrate.

    Tendency stuff first, then definitions.

    Report 1: Chinese CDC.

    From the Chinese CDC's analysis of ~20k cases for which comorbidity data was available, they found a case-fatality rate of 0.9% for patients with zero comorbidities, and ~7% for those with 1 or more.

    For chronic respiratory disease, diabetes and cardiovascular disease, the CFRs were 6.3%, 7.3% and 10.5% respectively.

    It would be nice if they had furnished a distribution of comorbidities and comorbidity-deaths by age, but they didn't so all that's left is a very strong argument that any significant, chronic comorbidity is at minimum a 7× multiplier of death risk.

    Even then: in the under-60s, only 50-59 year-olds have an age-category CFR greater than 0.4%, and for the sub-40s it's less than 0.2%. That shows that 50+ is where chronic disease starts to play a significant role.

    Report 2: Italian ISS[1].

    From March 17: 87.7% of deaths were aged over 70, and less than 1% had no comorbidities. (They unhelpfully didn't break down cases or comorbidity-prevalence by age).

    By March 20 , (and this time in a proper non-gibberish language), with a 50% greater sample, the 70+ population was stll 85.6% of deaths, and 1.2% had zero comorbidities.

    Examine the footnote on the first page of the English version. It makes it clear that the Italians are using 'died-with'.


    * COVID-19 related deaths presented in this report are those occurring in patients who test positive for SARSCoV-2 RT by PCR, independently from pre-existing diseases.
     
    .

    Neither of these studies give a definitive 'HR vs RBI' split: the people who die with "covid19 + X" might still be dying-from covid19, and dying-with X.

    There'll be some chance of determining which is true, later (when "deaths-from-things" data comes out - if there's a drop in deaths from kidney failure, heart attack, stroke, pneumonia and so forth - but since we'll all be living in the Greater Depression most of us won't have the resources to figure that out).

    (OT: at around the same time as the ISS study, an Italian study - open letter of March 20, discussion in BMJ (23 March) - swabbed 3341 denizens of Vo 'Euganeo.

    They did it twice, with a 2-week lockdown in between - and found that initially 3% were infected, and that 50% of the people who returned positive tests, were asymptomatic. Two weeks later the infection rate was 0.25%. Nobody disputes that lockdowns work, so long as they're implemented early enough.)

    Anyway... moving on.

    .

    What counts as "covid19 death"? Definitions

    There's significant pressure to count covid19 deaths 'Italian style' rather than purely identifying 'died-from covid19'.

    The HR vs RBI stats are further complicated by reporting standards for 'covid19 death', which do not require that the dead'un has been tested for covid19.

    I realise that the bold bit bold bit looks a thing that can't possibly be right (and I do mkae teh odd typo).

    Read the excerpt below, from the CDC's COVID-19 Alert No. 2 from March 24th: New ICD code (U07.1 COVID-19) introduced for COVID-19 death.


    Should “COVID-19” be reported on the death certificate only with a confirmed test?

    COVID-19 should be reported on the death certificate for all decedents where the disease caused or is assumed to have caused or contributed to death. Certifiers should include as much detail as possible based on their knowledge of the case, medical records, laboratory testing, etc. If the decedent had other chronic conditions such as COPD or asthma that may have also contributed, these conditions can be reported in Part II. (See attached Guidance for Certifying COVID-19 Deaths) [BOLDemphasis in original; italic emphasis mine]
     

    and

    Will COVID-19 be the underlying cause?

    The underlying cause depends upon what and where conditions are reported on the death certificate. However, the rules for coding and selection of the underlying cause of death are expected to result in COVID-19 being the underlying cause more often than not.
     

    So if U07.1 appears on a death certificate, it will be coded as the underlying cause of death "more often than not", with medical people being encouraged - in bold text - to write down U07.1 where covid19 is assumed to have been caused OR CONTRIBUTED TO the death.

    Why would people be encouraged - in bold text - to code U07.1 for unconfirmed covid19?

    After all...


    The WHO has provided a second code, U07.2, for clinical or epidemiological diagnosis of COVID-19 where a laboratory confirmation is inconclusive or not available. Because laboratory test results are not typically reported on death certificates in the U.S., NCHS is not planning to implement U07.2 for mortality statistics.
     
    This means that there are significant national differences in the "from/with" split, but also a significant question mark over the coding of covid19 as a cause.

    An 'assumed' cause/contribution gets the same weight in the count, as a definite, known-known, "Yup, covid19 killed this dude - 100% certain, couldn't have been anything else" case.

    And if the Yanks are doing it this way, the rest of the west will do likewise, because otherwise their death rates will be too low to justify deliberately bringing the economy to a standstill.

    .

    The European CDC claims that all its reported deaths are 'confirmed', however at the end of the day literally all they do is collate data reported by local authorities in each jurisdiction. You can tell that they just collate, because their count for Italy is the same as Italy's own count, and Italy uses a strongly-with version.

    So this is where Josiah Stamp's aphorism takes over:


    "The government are very keen on amassing statistics. They collect them, add them, raise them to the nth power, take the cube root and prepare wonderful diagrams. But you must never forget that every one of these figures comes in the first instance from the chowky dar, who just puts down what he damn pleases."
     
    This is the primary reason why CompSci is the worst possible domain from which to select 'data scientists' (also, fuck that term - credentialism that conceals rampant HelloWorldism). They can do everything up to the point where you have to understand what comes after 'But'. So what they produce looks slick (presentation frameworks are easy), and they can get it out the door quick... and if it's slick and timely, most people don't give a fuck if the content makes no sense.


    References:

    China CDC, Vital Surveillances: The Epidemiological Characteristics of an Outbreak of 2019 Novel Coronavirus Diseases (COVID-19) — China, 2020 CCDC Weekly, Feb 17 2020

    ISS[1] Report sulle caratteristiche dei pazienti deceduti positivia COVID-19 in Italia Il presente reportè basato sui datiaggiornatial 17 Marz o2020 March 17 2020

    CDC, New ICD code introduced for COVID-19 death, National Vital Statistics System COVID-19 Alert No. 2., March 24 2020


    [1] Instituto Superiore de Sanita
     

  281. @Reg Cæsar

    The Central African Republic has such a boring name that it should be written as central african republic.
     
    It's central, and African, but how is it a republic? We hardly are anymore.

    Years ago, I did a few temp shifts for a company called Product Development Corporation. Their business? Delivering phone books.

    https://www.deliverphonebooks.com


    Marketing gurus Al Ries and Jack Trout called this sort of name the corporate equivalent of an unlisted telephone number. Which is quite ironic in PDC's case.

    What is the CAR hiding? Its imperial past?

    https://en.m.wikipedia.org/wiki/Central_African_Empire

    Every African country but Somalia qualifies as an empire, so the name fit.

    It’s central, and African, but how is it a republic? We hardly are anymore.

    As Meat Loaf once sang, two out of three ain’t bad. The Holy Roman Empire had none of them.

    Also, since China and North Korea call themselves republics as well, republic is more a term of art than anything else.

  282. @AnotherDad

    Central African Republic
    Confirmed: 3
    Deaths: 0
    Recovered: 0
    Active: 3
     
    C-A-R! C-A-R! C-A-R!

    Africa is a great test of this. Africa has zero chance of mitigating this in any significant way, nor of providing adequate health care. They've got the weather in their favor. But that's it. So it will be pretty much a "let it rip" scenario.

    No doubt Covid-19 will "kill" millions of Africans.

    But then guess what:

    The heroic women of Africa will rally with their wombs! ... and defeat this racist, colonialist attack by the "white" man.

    You'll look at the demographics and population of Africa in a few years and they'll be no indication Covid-19 was an issue.

    They’ve got the weather in their favor. But that’s it.

    That and age. The Central African Republic has a median age of 17.6 years.

  283. @Cagey Beast
    Newer figures:

    https://twitter.com/battisctv/status/1245072234374475781?s=20

    Amazing, not a single person using the words “per capita” or population normalized

    US – 330M – 208520 cases, 4,616 deaths
    US outside NY Metro – 299M – 99,189 cases, 2251 deaths
    Canada – 38M – 9,547 cases, 108 deaths
    Quebec – 8.5M – 4,911 cases, 33 deaths

    Normalized to the US outside NY, Canada is at 75,000 cases and 850 deaths, while Quebec, their hotspot, is at 173,000 cases and 1170 deaths

    So many terrible takes during this whole happening on why the US isn’t like a small island, like Singapore, or ignoring how much worse Schengen Western Europe as a whole (same population as US) is to the US because its formed of a couple dozen countries.

  284. @Intelligent Dasein
    In between C and D.

    Corona is killing people who have a 99% chance of not making it another 5 yeras anyway. It's like AnotherDad said, corona is just packing the next few flu seasons into one.

    That seems right!

    What is Florida doing right? We are the third most populous state in the US with the oldest population, but still have less than 100 deaths and less than 1000 hospitalizations.

    There seems to be a concentration in the Miami/Fort Lauderdale/Palm Beach area, but nevertheless half a dozen counties account for most of the cases, and they are in the above cities that have the large hospitals, plus Tampa and Orlando and Fort Myers.

    Jacksonville, which is one of our largest cities has 4 deaths and only 30 hospitalizations so far, Columbia County, where I live has only 3 cases with zero hospitalizations, and that number has not increased in 12 days, many counties still have zero cases. Some counties have small numbers of cases, but they seem to be concentrated in nursing homes that have several sick residents.

    As of tomorrow midnight we are all supposed to be shut down and only allowed to leave the house for work (wife and myself are classed as essential) or to get gasoline and groceries. But really it will not make much difference, because everywhere is closed down anyway and there is nowhere to go, so it is just like one prolonged public holiday with people barbecuing in their yards and so on. Memorial Day has come early this year.

    Still the weather is beautiful right now. Hot and sunny in the day and cool at night. It would all be so idyllic except that so many people will be out of work and not getting paid.

  285. Anonymous[603] • Disclaimer says:
    @Buffalo Joe
    Brag, I was in Thunder Bay, Ontario waiting for my lift to an outpost camp. A guy walked over and asked, "Did you see the two F-16s on the runway?" I thought maybe we had invaded Canada, then I saw them with the maple leaf on the tail fin. We even supply their planes.

    Joe, the entire world Pays for your military. It’s the joy of having the world reserve currency. It’s a privilege you’ve been abusing badly.

    You use those military toys to enforce this reserve currency status on all. You love selling those beautiful machines to us, because it’s one of the few high level manufacturing operations left. It’s a pig trough though, and even this has become a grotesque, dysfunctional mess.

    As far as your boast about us ‘needing’ your airplanes….I assume you are insinuating we are to ‘stupid’ to make them. lol, Not really. We can make airplanes, we have made them and do still …and we can make Nukes too, quite easily. We could be be a big, important Nuclear power and could wave our dicks around like big monkeys!… we could even threaten you! with our awesome power and technology! (Imagine that!) But we felt it probably wasnt necessary or helpful. (We May have thought wrong)

    You will implode, almost inevitably.. we can only hope you don’t destroy us and everyone else on the way out.

    • Replies: @Buffalo Joe
    603, I must have touched a nerve.
  286. @Neoconned
    1 of my cousin's in laws died in Greater NOLA. From what my cousin told me he was mid 50s, worked out etc. I don't get it either.

    Considering free market types like to scream murder at Canada's health care system they seem to be doing a better job at containing this garbage than the incompetents and cluster fu--s running our health care system.

    As can be seen: de regulation and free market incentives DON'T WORK AS PLANNED.

    I also beg to differ with Dr. Dan Hessen but like the Drudge headline had the other day Louisiana had the fastest growth rate "on planet Earth" THIS WEEK.....

    Its so stinking humid here i call it "Satan's Crotch".....the weather is also weird this year....normally its cold as hell right now and pouring rain....instead ita VERY HUMID but NOT raining(hasnt rained significantly in a month) so i dunno if that has anything to do w it....but if humidity is a mitigation factor in the spread of covid19.....you sure as hell could have fooled me down here in "ground zero".....

    Something else though.....ive noticed Doordash & delivery services are popular in other parts of the country.....NOT HERE....ppl are OBSESSED w their vehicles here. White folks, blacks, doesn't matter....they love running the roads and put putting around....im weird, i hate cars and hate going out....

    If you think L.A. or Houston has a car culture come to Greater NOLA. People use mass transit in the city but elsewhere NOBODY DOES....a common phrase here is "gotta have wheels" and "i love my car"

    Considering free market types like to scream murder at Canada’s health care system they seem to be doing a better job at containing this garbage than the incompetents and cluster fu–s running our health care system.

    It doesn’t seem like the quality/character of the healthcare system of any given national society, would have very much to do with whether one contracts the Kung Flu.

  287. Its hard to see how you can look at a map of where cases are and not think there is a correspondence to temperature and climate.

    Thesis:
    Cold and dry – slowly transmissible but does not cause major symptomatic outbreaks, slow to cure or kill
    Cool/Temperate and dry – highly contagious with heavy fatalities, slow to cure, quick to kill
    Hot and dry – slowly transmissible but does not cause major symptomatic outbreaks, average to cure, slow to kill
    Hot and humid – very slowly transmissible but does cause major symptomatic outbreaks, faster to cure, almost unable to kill

  288. @Paleo Liberal
    There was one chart which showed that the places by that point to have been hit the hardest were all within a narrow temperature and humidity band — Wuhan, N Italy, New York, etc. The speculation was that as temperatures rose in the spring and summer, the virus would head north, and that Chicago and Detroit would soon be hard hit.

    OTOH, so were New Orleans and Madrid.

    So we can’t really be certain.

    Uh, Madrid: Latitude 40.41
    NYC: Latitude 40.42

    Not dispositive, but….

    • LOL: Autochthon
  289. @Neoconned
    Mr. Tillman: Steve said Canada had a fifth the rate we had.....the point i was trying to make was that their health care system is derided as "arthtritic" and backwards by the Sean Hannity types "because socialism"....

    My question was....if they're so backwards why is their spread rate worse than ours?

    Sorry about the ambiguity....

    Thank you for the polite reply to my less-polite comment.

  290. @Kratoklastes

    to assume that a model is wrong or inadequate because it doesn’t naively incorporate that hope
     
    Might be a valid criticism if I relied on hope, but I don't.

    If by 'model' you mean the "evolve towards less-lethal" model, I think you're on pretty loose ground.

    SARS -> SARS-CoV2 looks reasonably well aligned to the hypothesis.

    There's a fairly large Δ to the genome (as would be expected over 17 years) - the overall difference is 28%-ish, which in raw terms is about the same genomic difference as there is between between humans and domesticated cattle (I know, that's not really apples-to-apples, but it's pretty funny... MOOOO!).

    SARS began in February 2003. Estimates of SARS' CFR in May 2003 were 15% overall, and 55% for those over 60 - see WHO Update 49 - SARS case fatality ratio, incubation period and The Lancet (PDF)).

    Bear in mind that SARS deaths were "deaths of" (aka "deaths-from", "deaths-by") SARS, not "deaths-with" SARS, which is the main basis for the death count for covid19.

    By contrast, an 80 year old with kidney disease who dies of kidney failure and tests positive for covid19, is likely to be counted the covid19 death toll.

    Even so: with dramatic undercounting of cases, and over-counting of deaths-with... the CFR for SARS-CoV2 overall is around the 3% mark. See Worldometers: covid2 death rate.

    Note though, that the unweighted average of Worldometer's countries table is 4.7% (42,158 deaths; 858,916 confirmed cases).

    Still way way lower than 15%, and will fall as more data becomes available.

    SARS was more lethal, but covid19's hit more people and been given credit for thousands of RBIs.

    .

    If you mean epidemiological models more broadly? Pfft.

    First, the most-touted model for the UK (ICL) involves a serial Chicken Little who has overstated everything he's ever been involved in - in 2001 he forecast 130,000 deaths from vCJD, and since then there's been 128 , globally (not 128,000... 128).

    Besides...

    I've seen no forecast modelling that does even the most trivial sensitivity analysis, and none whatsoever that formally investigates the entire stochastic domain of the model.

    There is a really important problem with using measures of central tendency as inputs to a non-linear model: it's a version of Jensen's Inequality, but there is no a priori knowledge about the direction of the inequality, or other important things like whether it's piecewise smooth.

    Point is, such functions are generally not invertible.

    (This was section 2 of one chapter of my thesis from 1997: here's a PDF for those interested in the mathematics - how I wish we could embed Scribd-style PDFs here).

    Here's the main point.

    Consider a model where that can be represented by some function Z(Y, X; θ) = 0
    where
    Y is the vector of endogenous variables;
    X is the vector of exogenous variables;
    Z() is a nonlinear vector function; and
    θ is the vector of parameters of the model.

    Now you want to forecast with this model.
    • Do you want to know the 'average' outcome?
    • Do you want to know what's most likely to happen?

    Is there some way to do either of those things if you only run the model once?

    Answer: no, because there will be multiple combinations of (Y, X;θ) that solve Z.

    https://www.dropbox.com/s/kfnel9jredsnsxf/S2.png?dl=1


    At the end of the day, modellers ought to be producing surfaces, not lines.

    That means they have to fit a distribution to the parameters in their models, and do a fucking Monte Carlo instead of pretending that their one single fucking line has some meaningful statistical interpretation ('most likely', 'on average' etc).

    The fact that they don't do any UQ means they're doing PR, not science.

    .

    Think of a Monte Carlo model of portfolio returns, where you add a random vector of errors to the vector of expected returns of each asset in the portfolio: you do this 1000 times and get 1000 (say) lines.

    The image below is the result: same assets, same portfolio weights, same covariance structure between assets. All that changed is the use of 1000 (joint) return vectors that have the same (joint) variability as the historical returns for the assets in the portfolio. 1000 'pseudo-futures' that behave like the past - and yet the distribution of returns fans out.

    https://www.dropbox.com/s/7w8ruojggz7gxev/Portfolio_1000Forecasts.png?dl=1

    If the errors are drawn from some multivariate copula, each draw has an associated probability.

    You can apply that to the output as a 'height' to each line at each point - at which point you have a forecast surface for portfolio returns.

    A 1000-sample, 20-period Monte of a portfolio with 20 components takes about 28msec to solve on a half-decent machine (like my desktop); doing a 10,000 sample, 24 month, 4 parameter SEIR takes very slightly longer.

    It shits me beyond human endurance to see the public being fed such shit-awful quant. I'm doing something about it - building and mounting a better model - but it will have a market penetration of exactly zero, because there's no market for "Calm the fuck down".

    I tend to agree with you that the projections of doom and gloom are overcooked.

    Further the models are simplistic and unable to model any specific interventions.

    We also hardly know the values of various important parameters about both how infectious or how deadly it is. The values derived from churches, cruise ships and nursing homes vs free living Americans can be very different.

    Alao our testing, outside of NYC, has been crap so far. Even today people with symptoms are being turned away from testing and the turnaround time for tests is upward of a week unless you’re hospitalized.
    So our case numbers and the rate of growth mean little right now.

    Anyway, if you enjoy building these models then more power to you, but unless you have fancy media friendly credentials, you’re right it’s not going to get any broad attention.

    Yes, people in power have launched an unprecedented intervention based on highly speculative numbers and without apparently any clue what the next steps will be, and
    it’s enough to drive you crazy if you let it,
    but it’s already done.
    There will be no reckoning for them.

    At this time it’s prob most productive to try to figure out how to get a slice of this government cheese that we’ll be paying for anyway.

  291. @LondonBob
    Why wouldn't you, if resources become scarce, focus those on the young and those with more chance of surviving. This is a mentality I utterly fail to understand. Actually a lot of people are perfectly comfortable with when it is their time.

    “a lot of people are perfectly comfortable with when it is their time”

    Some people yes, others no. My aunt is 92 and still enjoys life. I would be furious if she got a letter like that.

  292. @Federalist
    Now you're telling me that it's typically 30-50 degrees Fahrenheit in New Orleans in late March? It's not.

    Has been the last few years….or at least thru mid March. Very very wet too…

  293. @Anonymous
    Joe, the entire world Pays for your military. It’s the joy of having the world reserve currency. It’s a privilege you’ve been abusing badly.

    You use those military toys to enforce this reserve currency status on all. You love selling those beautiful machines to us, because it’s one of the few high level manufacturing operations left. It’s a pig trough though, and even this has become a grotesque, dysfunctional mess.

    As far as your boast about us ‘needing’ your airplanes....I assume you are insinuating we are to ‘stupid’ to make them. lol, Not really. We can make airplanes, we have made them and do still ...and we can make Nukes too, quite easily. We could be be a big, important Nuclear power and could wave our dicks around like big monkeys!... we could even threaten you! with our awesome power and technology! (Imagine that!) But we felt it probably wasnt necessary or helpful. (We May have thought wrong)

    You will implode, almost inevitably.. we can only hope you don’t destroy us and everyone else on the way out.

    603, I must have touched a nerve.

  294. @BigJimSportCamper
    Ahhh, fond memories of the Ballet!!! So easy to cross back and forth over the border, a far more civilized time....

    Coming in to O Canada: "Citizen of what country?" "US" "Where are you going?" "The ballet!!" "Have fun!"

    Coming back: "Citizen of what country?" "US" "Where did you go?" "The ballet and Brewers Retail!!" "Bringing anything back?" "Yep, a case of Brador and a case of Stock Ale" "Ok, go ahead".

    Brador and Stock Ale are no longer brewed, sadly. The ballet is still there, but the border is now like Checkpoint Charlie in Berlin during the Cold War and just not worth the BS.

    Big Jim, thank you for the reply. When we were teens, the 60s, we used to walk over the Peace Bridge and hitch to the beaches. It was like visiting another state, except with funny looking money. Buy beer only at the Brewer’s Retail, alcohol at the Liquor Board and the worst cigarette ever.

  295. @LibertyPlease
    BLA BLA BLA...

    Wheres our outward facing model you 'Derro'??


    Joking aside GT.... Where does one obtain reliable "RBI, HR" numbers? I cant seem to find any coding related numbers.

    Where does one obtain reliable “RBI, HR” numbers? I cant seem to find any coding related numbers.

    It’s really hard to get good data, and a very large proportion of the evidence is small-N or anecdotes (e.g., “All 5 deaths under 30 had terminal cancer“).

    The ‘tendency’ evidence are the twin facts that deaths occur with a massive ’tilt’ favouring two things –
    • the presence of clinically-relevant chronic disease; and
    • reasonably advanced age (70+ seems to be the big breakpoint).

    The relevant authorities seem reluctant to furnish data in ways that properly permit a good test of the ‘of/with’ split, too – the very definition of ‘covid19 death’ is incredibly biased and false-positive-friendly, which seems deliberrate.

    Tendency stuff first, then definitions.

    Report 1: Chinese CDC.

    From the Chinese CDC’s analysis of ~20k cases for which comorbidity data was available, they found a case-fatality rate of 0.9% for patients with zero comorbidities, and ~7% for those with 1 or more.

    For chronic respiratory disease, diabetes and cardiovascular disease, the CFRs were 6.3%, 7.3% and 10.5% respectively.

    It would be nice if they had furnished a distribution of comorbidities and comorbidity-deaths by age, but they didn’t so all that’s left is a very strong argument that any significant, chronic comorbidity is at minimum a 7× multiplier of death risk.

    Even then: in the under-60s, only 50-59 year-olds have an age-category CFR greater than 0.4%, and for the sub-40s it’s less than 0.2%. That shows that 50+ is where chronic disease starts to play a significant role.

    Report 2: Italian ISS[1].

    From March 17: 87.7% of deaths were aged over 70, and less than 1% had no comorbidities. (They unhelpfully didn’t break down cases or comorbidity-prevalence by age).

    By March 20 , (and this time in a proper non-gibberish language), with a 50% greater sample, the 70+ population was stll 85.6% of deaths, and 1.2% had zero comorbidities.

    Examine the footnote on the first page of the English version. It makes it clear that the Italians are using ‘died-with‘.

    * COVID-19 related deaths presented in this report are those occurring in patients who test positive for SARSCoV-2 RT by PCR, independently from pre-existing diseases.

    .

    Neither of these studies give a definitive ‘HR vs RBI‘ split: the people who die with “covid19 + Xmight still be dying-from covid19, and dying-with X.

    There’ll be some chance of determining which is true, later (when “deaths-from-things” data comes out – if there’s a drop in deaths from kidney failure, heart attack, stroke, pneumonia and so forth – but since we’ll all be living in the Greater Depression most of us won’t have the resources to figure that out).

    (OT: at around the same time as the ISS study, an Italian study – open letter of March 20, discussion in BMJ (23 March) – swabbed 3341 denizens of Vo ‘Euganeo.

    They did it twice, with a 2-week lockdown in between – and found that initially 3% were infected, and that 50% of the people who returned positive tests, were asymptomatic. Two weeks later the infection rate was 0.25%. Nobody disputes that lockdowns work, so long as they’re implemented early enough.)

    Anyway… moving on.

    .

    What counts as “covid19 death“? Definitions

    There’s significant pressure to count covid19 deaths ‘Italian style’ rather than purely identifying ‘died-from covid19′.

    The HR vs RBI stats are further complicated by reporting standards for ‘covid19 death’, which do not require that the dead’un has been tested for covid19.

    I realise that the bold bit bold bit looks a thing that can’t possibly be right (and I do mkae teh odd typo).

    Read the excerpt below, from the CDC’s COVID-19 Alert No. 2 from March 24th: New ICD code (U07.1 COVID-19) introduced for COVID-19 death.

    Should “COVID-19” be reported on the death certificate only with a confirmed test?

    COVID-19 should be reported on the death certificate for all decedents where the disease caused or is assumed to have caused or contributed to death. Certifiers should include as much detail as possible based on their knowledge of the case, medical records, laboratory testing, etc. If the decedent had other chronic conditions such as COPD or asthma that may have also contributed, these conditions can be reported in Part II. (See attached Guidance for Certifying COVID-19 Deaths) [BOLDemphasis in original; italic emphasis mine]

    and

    Will COVID-19 be the underlying cause?

    The underlying cause depends upon what and where conditions are reported on the death certificate. However, the rules for coding and selection of the underlying cause of death are expected to result in COVID-19 being the underlying cause more often than not.

    So if U07.1 appears on a death certificate, it will be coded as the underlying cause of death “more often than not“, with medical people being encouraged – in bold text – to write down U07.1 where covid19 is assumed to have been caused OR CONTRIBUTED TO the death.

    Why would people be encouraged – in bold text – to code U07.1 for unconfirmed covid19?

    After all…

    The WHO has provided a second code, U07.2, for clinical or epidemiological diagnosis of COVID-19 where a laboratory confirmation is inconclusive or not available. Because laboratory test results are not typically reported on death certificates in the U.S., NCHS is not planning to implement U07.2 for mortality statistics.

    This means that there are significant national differences in the “from/with” split, but also a significant question mark over the coding of covid19 as a cause.

    An ‘assumed‘ cause/contribution gets the same weight in the count, as a definite, known-known, “Yup, covid19 killed this dude – 100% certain, couldn’t have been anything else” case.

    And if the Yanks are doing it this way, the rest of the west will do likewise, because otherwise their death rates will be too low to justify deliberately bringing the economy to a standstill.

    .

    The European CDC claims that all its reported deaths are ‘confirmed‘, however at the end of the day literally all they do is collate data reported by local authorities in each jurisdiction. You can tell that they just collate, because their count for Italy is the same as Italy’s own count, and Italy uses a strongly-with version.

    So this is where Josiah Stamp’s aphorism takes over:

    “The government are very keen on amassing statistics. They collect them, add them, raise them to the nth power, take the cube root and prepare wonderful diagrams. But you must never forget that every one of these figures comes in the first instance from the chowky dar, who just puts down what he damn pleases.”

    This is the primary reason why CompSci is the worst possible domain from which to select ‘data scientists‘ (also, fuck that term – credentialism that conceals rampant HelloWorldism). They can do everything up to the point where you have to understand what comes after ‘But‘. So what they produce looks slick (presentation frameworks are easy), and they can get it out the door quick… and if it’s slick and timely, most people don’t give a fuck if the content makes no sense.

    References:

    China CDC, Vital Surveillances: The Epidemiological Characteristics of an Outbreak of 2019 Novel Coronavirus Diseases (COVID-19) — China, 2020 CCDC Weekly, Feb 17 2020

    ISS[1] Report sulle caratteristiche dei pazienti deceduti positivia COVID-19 in Italia Il presente reportè basato sui datiaggiornatial 17 Marz o2020 March 17 2020

    CDC, New ICD code introduced for COVID-19 death, National Vital Statistics System COVID-19 Alert No. 2., March 24 2020

    [1] Instituto Superiore de Sanita

    • Replies: @Kratoklastes
    Further to the CDC's guidance regarding WHO ICD code U07.1 - i.e.,

    Should “COVID-19” be reported on the death certificate only with a confirmed test?

    COVID-19 should be reported on the death certificate for all decedents where the disease caused or is assumed to have caused or contributed to death. (emphasis in original)
     

    The ICD-10 code is question has the following definition in WHO's COVID-19 coding in ICD-10:

    U07.1 COVID-19, virus identified
     
    https://www.dropbox.com/s/u6y0s5w3fdkrrnk/WHO_ICD_U07.png?dl=1

    The WHO ICD-10 code requires that the virus is identified as being present in the decedent, but the US CDC has issued coding guidelines that quite clearly 'skirt' a requirement for a positive test.

    So it's not just RBIs vs HRs anymore: the coding guidelines covid19 to get credit for an RBI when covid19 wasn't even at-bat.

    TRUST US.

    STOP RESISTING.


    Also: note that the March 5th Chinese paper on the false-positive rate for the PCR test has now been withdrawn. See -> https://www.ncbi.nlm.nih.gov/pubmed/32133832

    Social credit-score risk, probably.

    , @LibertyPlease
    The Canada numbers also agree with your analysis from weeks ago.

    They come with a very small N (3093 confirmed cases in the granular report), but seems like the risk for someone <79 with no co morbidity is minuscule.

    They have it here https://www150.statcan.gc.ca/t1/tbl1/en/tv.action?pid=1310076701

    They added an interesting bit. 247/3093 (8%) cases required Hospitalization.....with a note that 64% of those hospitalized had a co-morbidity. I summed and collated the data by age like you suggested. I even broke it down by hospitalization, ICU requirement, death and the numbers are pretty piss poor. Even if the 'death-with' numbers are juiced, they are not alarming in the least for those not living in an old age home on oxygen.

    Yet we hurtle toward despotism. All of us on house arrest....unless you are an essential service provider....then your service is needed for "ZEE FATHZERLAND". Then u must hurry back home or else...Men in black boots and costumes will be asking for ur "paperzz" . Soon to be thrust into THE GREAT DEPRESSION PART2 ......I try to tell people and they look at me like I have horns.

    "OMFG--430 new cases!!"

    Its times like these I wish I was a mouth breather. so much easier....
  296. Quebec is setting up its own checkpoints at its borders. Quebec is currently run by the CAQ (the Coalition for the Future of Quebec), which is the closest North America gets to Victor Orban’s party. I say that with admiration.

    We have similar checkpoints between us (Nova Scotia) and New Brunswick.

    Those are the federal Parliament Buildings in the background, on the Ontario side:

  297. @Kratoklastes

    Where does one obtain reliable “RBI, HR” numbers? I cant seem to find any coding related numbers.
     
    It's really hard to get good data, and a very large proportion of the evidence is small-N or anecdotes (e.g., "All 5 deaths under 30 had terminal cancer").

    The 'tendency' evidence are the twin facts that deaths occur with a massive 'tilt' favouring two things -
    • the presence of clinically-relevant chronic disease; and
    • reasonably advanced age (70+ seems to be the big breakpoint).

    The relevant authorities seem reluctant to furnish data in ways that properly permit a good test of the 'of/with' split, too - the very definition of 'covid19 death' is incredibly biased and false-positive-friendly, which seems deliberrate.

    Tendency stuff first, then definitions.

    Report 1: Chinese CDC.

    From the Chinese CDC's analysis of ~20k cases for which comorbidity data was available, they found a case-fatality rate of 0.9% for patients with zero comorbidities, and ~7% for those with 1 or more.

    For chronic respiratory disease, diabetes and cardiovascular disease, the CFRs were 6.3%, 7.3% and 10.5% respectively.

    It would be nice if they had furnished a distribution of comorbidities and comorbidity-deaths by age, but they didn't so all that's left is a very strong argument that any significant, chronic comorbidity is at minimum a 7× multiplier of death risk.

    Even then: in the under-60s, only 50-59 year-olds have an age-category CFR greater than 0.4%, and for the sub-40s it's less than 0.2%. That shows that 50+ is where chronic disease starts to play a significant role.

    Report 2: Italian ISS[1].

    From March 17: 87.7% of deaths were aged over 70, and less than 1% had no comorbidities. (They unhelpfully didn't break down cases or comorbidity-prevalence by age).

    By March 20 , (and this time in a proper non-gibberish language), with a 50% greater sample, the 70+ population was stll 85.6% of deaths, and 1.2% had zero comorbidities.

    Examine the footnote on the first page of the English version. It makes it clear that the Italians are using 'died-with'.


    * COVID-19 related deaths presented in this report are those occurring in patients who test positive for SARSCoV-2 RT by PCR, independently from pre-existing diseases.
     
    .

    Neither of these studies give a definitive 'HR vs RBI' split: the people who die with "covid19 + X" might still be dying-from covid19, and dying-with X.

    There'll be some chance of determining which is true, later (when "deaths-from-things" data comes out - if there's a drop in deaths from kidney failure, heart attack, stroke, pneumonia and so forth - but since we'll all be living in the Greater Depression most of us won't have the resources to figure that out).

    (OT: at around the same time as the ISS study, an Italian study - open letter of March 20, discussion in BMJ (23 March) - swabbed 3341 denizens of Vo 'Euganeo.

    They did it twice, with a 2-week lockdown in between - and found that initially 3% were infected, and that 50% of the people who returned positive tests, were asymptomatic. Two weeks later the infection rate was 0.25%. Nobody disputes that lockdowns work, so long as they're implemented early enough.)

    Anyway... moving on.

    .

    What counts as "covid19 death"? Definitions

    There's significant pressure to count covid19 deaths 'Italian style' rather than purely identifying 'died-from covid19'.

    The HR vs RBI stats are further complicated by reporting standards for 'covid19 death', which do not require that the dead'un has been tested for covid19.

    I realise that the bold bit bold bit looks a thing that can't possibly be right (and I do mkae teh odd typo).

    Read the excerpt below, from the CDC's COVID-19 Alert No. 2 from March 24th: New ICD code (U07.1 COVID-19) introduced for COVID-19 death.


    Should “COVID-19” be reported on the death certificate only with a confirmed test?

    COVID-19 should be reported on the death certificate for all decedents where the disease caused or is assumed to have caused or contributed to death. Certifiers should include as much detail as possible based on their knowledge of the case, medical records, laboratory testing, etc. If the decedent had other chronic conditions such as COPD or asthma that may have also contributed, these conditions can be reported in Part II. (See attached Guidance for Certifying COVID-19 Deaths) [BOLDemphasis in original; italic emphasis mine]
     

    and

    Will COVID-19 be the underlying cause?

    The underlying cause depends upon what and where conditions are reported on the death certificate. However, the rules for coding and selection of the underlying cause of death are expected to result in COVID-19 being the underlying cause more often than not.
     

    So if U07.1 appears on a death certificate, it will be coded as the underlying cause of death "more often than not", with medical people being encouraged - in bold text - to write down U07.1 where covid19 is assumed to have been caused OR CONTRIBUTED TO the death.

    Why would people be encouraged - in bold text - to code U07.1 for unconfirmed covid19?

    After all...


    The WHO has provided a second code, U07.2, for clinical or epidemiological diagnosis of COVID-19 where a laboratory confirmation is inconclusive or not available. Because laboratory test results are not typically reported on death certificates in the U.S., NCHS is not planning to implement U07.2 for mortality statistics.
     
    This means that there are significant national differences in the "from/with" split, but also a significant question mark over the coding of covid19 as a cause.

    An 'assumed' cause/contribution gets the same weight in the count, as a definite, known-known, "Yup, covid19 killed this dude - 100% certain, couldn't have been anything else" case.

    And if the Yanks are doing it this way, the rest of the west will do likewise, because otherwise their death rates will be too low to justify deliberately bringing the economy to a standstill.

    .

    The European CDC claims that all its reported deaths are 'confirmed', however at the end of the day literally all they do is collate data reported by local authorities in each jurisdiction. You can tell that they just collate, because their count for Italy is the same as Italy's own count, and Italy uses a strongly-with version.

    So this is where Josiah Stamp's aphorism takes over:


    "The government are very keen on amassing statistics. They collect them, add them, raise them to the nth power, take the cube root and prepare wonderful diagrams. But you must never forget that every one of these figures comes in the first instance from the chowky dar, who just puts down what he damn pleases."
     
    This is the primary reason why CompSci is the worst possible domain from which to select 'data scientists' (also, fuck that term - credentialism that conceals rampant HelloWorldism). They can do everything up to the point where you have to understand what comes after 'But'. So what they produce looks slick (presentation frameworks are easy), and they can get it out the door quick... and if it's slick and timely, most people don't give a fuck if the content makes no sense.


    References:

    China CDC, Vital Surveillances: The Epidemiological Characteristics of an Outbreak of 2019 Novel Coronavirus Diseases (COVID-19) — China, 2020 CCDC Weekly, Feb 17 2020

    ISS[1] Report sulle caratteristiche dei pazienti deceduti positivia COVID-19 in Italia Il presente reportè basato sui datiaggiornatial 17 Marz o2020 March 17 2020

    CDC, New ICD code introduced for COVID-19 death, National Vital Statistics System COVID-19 Alert No. 2., March 24 2020


    [1] Instituto Superiore de Sanita
     

    Further to the CDC’s guidance regarding WHO ICD code U07.1 – i.e.,

    Should “COVID-19” be reported on the death certificate only with a confirmed test?

    COVID-19 should be reported on the death certificate for all decedents where the disease caused or is assumed to have caused or contributed to death. (emphasis in original)

    The ICD-10 code is question has the following definition in WHO’s COVID-19 coding in ICD-10:

    U07.1 COVID-19, virus identified


    The WHO ICD-10 code requires that the virus is identified as being present in the decedent, but the US CDC has issued coding guidelines that quite clearly ‘skirt’ a requirement for a positive test.

    So it’s not just RBIs vs HRs anymore: the coding guidelines covid19 to get credit for an RBI when covid19 wasn’t even at-bat.

    TRUST US.

    STOP RESISTING.

    Also: note that the March 5th Chinese paper on the false-positive rate for the PCR test has now been withdrawn. See -> https://www.ncbi.nlm.nih.gov/pubmed/32133832

    Social credit-score risk, probably.

    • Replies: @vhrm

    Also: note that the March 5th Chinese paper on the false-positive rate for the PCR test has now been withdrawn. See -> https://www.ncbi.nlm.nih.gov/pubmed/32133832

    Social credit-score risk, probably.
     

    I hadn't seen the paper, but reading just the abstract it doesn't sound like a technical fault with the test , but rather what it means to detect the virus RNA in a person's samples.

    Presumably the false positives are caused because the person has virus particles or virus RNA in their nose or throat from the air even though they haven't been infected.

    i can't imagine why else test performance would vary in close contacts of infected people vs others.

  298. @Kratoklastes
    Further to the CDC's guidance regarding WHO ICD code U07.1 - i.e.,

    Should “COVID-19” be reported on the death certificate only with a confirmed test?

    COVID-19 should be reported on the death certificate for all decedents where the disease caused or is assumed to have caused or contributed to death. (emphasis in original)
     

    The ICD-10 code is question has the following definition in WHO's COVID-19 coding in ICD-10:

    U07.1 COVID-19, virus identified
     
    https://www.dropbox.com/s/u6y0s5w3fdkrrnk/WHO_ICD_U07.png?dl=1

    The WHO ICD-10 code requires that the virus is identified as being present in the decedent, but the US CDC has issued coding guidelines that quite clearly 'skirt' a requirement for a positive test.

    So it's not just RBIs vs HRs anymore: the coding guidelines covid19 to get credit for an RBI when covid19 wasn't even at-bat.

    TRUST US.

    STOP RESISTING.


    Also: note that the March 5th Chinese paper on the false-positive rate for the PCR test has now been withdrawn. See -> https://www.ncbi.nlm.nih.gov/pubmed/32133832

    Social credit-score risk, probably.

    Also: note that the March 5th Chinese paper on the false-positive rate for the PCR test has now been withdrawn. See -> https://www.ncbi.nlm.nih.gov/pubmed/32133832

    Social credit-score risk, probably.

    I hadn’t seen the paper, but reading just the abstract it doesn’t sound like a technical fault with the test , but rather what it means to detect the virus RNA in a person’s samples.

    Presumably the false positives are caused because the person has virus particles or virus RNA in their nose or throat from the air even though they haven’t been infected.

    i can’t imagine why else test performance would vary in close contacts of infected people vs others.

    • Replies: @Kratoklastes
    It might just be that they had a sample of people who were positive-test asymps who were identified through contract tracing (hence "close contacts").

    Also, since such people would have been tested in 'real world' conditions (including by mobile teams), there would have been some introduced fuckups as a result of real-world vagaries (definitely including getting environmental contamination of the type you mention).

    It's likely that these were later shown to be false positives by blood and stool tests which subsequently showed no trace of prior infection (for SARS the 'multi-test' stuff - on shit and what-not - was way better at 21 days than it was at 14).

    The text of that abstract has changed significantly since I first read it, so I can't recall what sample they used. I'm fairly certain it was mentioned: I was waiting on the full version, but it got yanked before it got to print.

    I'm checking with some Ching-chong mates who might know where to get hold of the now-yanked paper (and to help clarify Google auto-translations, which are getting so good it's scary).

    Weird that it was pulled though: there's a lot worse stuff still out there.

    (I'm loving being a shut-in: it's like being back at university - but the internet was nowhere near as good in 1995. As usual, I am reading too much and doing too little).
  299. @vhrm

    Also: note that the March 5th Chinese paper on the false-positive rate for the PCR test has now been withdrawn. See -> https://www.ncbi.nlm.nih.gov/pubmed/32133832

    Social credit-score risk, probably.
     

    I hadn't seen the paper, but reading just the abstract it doesn't sound like a technical fault with the test , but rather what it means to detect the virus RNA in a person's samples.

    Presumably the false positives are caused because the person has virus particles or virus RNA in their nose or throat from the air even though they haven't been infected.

    i can't imagine why else test performance would vary in close contacts of infected people vs others.

    It might just be that they had a sample of people who were positive-test asymps who were identified through contract tracing (hence “close contacts”).

    Also, since such people would have been tested in ‘real world’ conditions (including by mobile teams), there would have been some introduced fuckups as a result of real-world vagaries (definitely including getting environmental contamination of the type you mention).

    It’s likely that these were later shown to be false positives by blood and stool tests which subsequently showed no trace of prior infection (for SARS the ‘multi-test’ stuff – on shit and what-not – was way better at 21 days than it was at 14).

    The text of that abstract has changed significantly since I first read it, so I can’t recall what sample they used. I’m fairly certain it was mentioned: I was waiting on the full version, but it got yanked before it got to print.

    I’m checking with some Ching-chong mates who might know where to get hold of the now-yanked paper (and to help clarify Google auto-translations, which are getting so good it’s scary).

    Weird that it was pulled though: there’s a lot worse stuff still out there.

    (I’m loving being a shut-in: it’s like being back at university – but the internet was nowhere near as good in 1995. As usual, I am reading too much and doing too little).

  300. @Kratoklastes

    Where does one obtain reliable “RBI, HR” numbers? I cant seem to find any coding related numbers.
     
    It's really hard to get good data, and a very large proportion of the evidence is small-N or anecdotes (e.g., "All 5 deaths under 30 had terminal cancer").

    The 'tendency' evidence are the twin facts that deaths occur with a massive 'tilt' favouring two things -
    • the presence of clinically-relevant chronic disease; and
    • reasonably advanced age (70+ seems to be the big breakpoint).

    The relevant authorities seem reluctant to furnish data in ways that properly permit a good test of the 'of/with' split, too - the very definition of 'covid19 death' is incredibly biased and false-positive-friendly, which seems deliberrate.

    Tendency stuff first, then definitions.

    Report 1: Chinese CDC.

    From the Chinese CDC's analysis of ~20k cases for which comorbidity data was available, they found a case-fatality rate of 0.9% for patients with zero comorbidities, and ~7% for those with 1 or more.

    For chronic respiratory disease, diabetes and cardiovascular disease, the CFRs were 6.3%, 7.3% and 10.5% respectively.

    It would be nice if they had furnished a distribution of comorbidities and comorbidity-deaths by age, but they didn't so all that's left is a very strong argument that any significant, chronic comorbidity is at minimum a 7× multiplier of death risk.

    Even then: in the under-60s, only 50-59 year-olds have an age-category CFR greater than 0.4%, and for the sub-40s it's less than 0.2%. That shows that 50+ is where chronic disease starts to play a significant role.

    Report 2: Italian ISS[1].

    From March 17: 87.7% of deaths were aged over 70, and less than 1% had no comorbidities. (They unhelpfully didn't break down cases or comorbidity-prevalence by age).

    By March 20 , (and this time in a proper non-gibberish language), with a 50% greater sample, the 70+ population was stll 85.6% of deaths, and 1.2% had zero comorbidities.

    Examine the footnote on the first page of the English version. It makes it clear that the Italians are using 'died-with'.


    * COVID-19 related deaths presented in this report are those occurring in patients who test positive for SARSCoV-2 RT by PCR, independently from pre-existing diseases.
     
    .

    Neither of these studies give a definitive 'HR vs RBI' split: the people who die with "covid19 + X" might still be dying-from covid19, and dying-with X.

    There'll be some chance of determining which is true, later (when "deaths-from-things" data comes out - if there's a drop in deaths from kidney failure, heart attack, stroke, pneumonia and so forth - but since we'll all be living in the Greater Depression most of us won't have the resources to figure that out).

    (OT: at around the same time as the ISS study, an Italian study - open letter of March 20, discussion in BMJ (23 March) - swabbed 3341 denizens of Vo 'Euganeo.

    They did it twice, with a 2-week lockdown in between - and found that initially 3% were infected, and that 50% of the people who returned positive tests, were asymptomatic. Two weeks later the infection rate was 0.25%. Nobody disputes that lockdowns work, so long as they're implemented early enough.)

    Anyway... moving on.

    .

    What counts as "covid19 death"? Definitions

    There's significant pressure to count covid19 deaths 'Italian style' rather than purely identifying 'died-from covid19'.

    The HR vs RBI stats are further complicated by reporting standards for 'covid19 death', which do not require that the dead'un has been tested for covid19.

    I realise that the bold bit bold bit looks a thing that can't possibly be right (and I do mkae teh odd typo).

    Read the excerpt below, from the CDC's COVID-19 Alert No. 2 from March 24th: New ICD code (U07.1 COVID-19) introduced for COVID-19 death.


    Should “COVID-19” be reported on the death certificate only with a confirmed test?

    COVID-19 should be reported on the death certificate for all decedents where the disease caused or is assumed to have caused or contributed to death. Certifiers should include as much detail as possible based on their knowledge of the case, medical records, laboratory testing, etc. If the decedent had other chronic conditions such as COPD or asthma that may have also contributed, these conditions can be reported in Part II. (See attached Guidance for Certifying COVID-19 Deaths) [BOLDemphasis in original; italic emphasis mine]
     

    and

    Will COVID-19 be the underlying cause?

    The underlying cause depends upon what and where conditions are reported on the death certificate. However, the rules for coding and selection of the underlying cause of death are expected to result in COVID-19 being the underlying cause more often than not.
     

    So if U07.1 appears on a death certificate, it will be coded as the underlying cause of death "more often than not", with medical people being encouraged - in bold text - to write down U07.1 where covid19 is assumed to have been caused OR CONTRIBUTED TO the death.

    Why would people be encouraged - in bold text - to code U07.1 for unconfirmed covid19?

    After all...


    The WHO has provided a second code, U07.2, for clinical or epidemiological diagnosis of COVID-19 where a laboratory confirmation is inconclusive or not available. Because laboratory test results are not typically reported on death certificates in the U.S., NCHS is not planning to implement U07.2 for mortality statistics.
     
    This means that there are significant national differences in the "from/with" split, but also a significant question mark over the coding of covid19 as a cause.

    An 'assumed' cause/contribution gets the same weight in the count, as a definite, known-known, "Yup, covid19 killed this dude - 100% certain, couldn't have been anything else" case.

    And if the Yanks are doing it this way, the rest of the west will do likewise, because otherwise their death rates will be too low to justify deliberately bringing the economy to a standstill.

    .

    The European CDC claims that all its reported deaths are 'confirmed', however at the end of the day literally all they do is collate data reported by local authorities in each jurisdiction. You can tell that they just collate, because their count for Italy is the same as Italy's own count, and Italy uses a strongly-with version.

    So this is where Josiah Stamp's aphorism takes over:


    "The government are very keen on amassing statistics. They collect them, add them, raise them to the nth power, take the cube root and prepare wonderful diagrams. But you must never forget that every one of these figures comes in the first instance from the chowky dar, who just puts down what he damn pleases."
     
    This is the primary reason why CompSci is the worst possible domain from which to select 'data scientists' (also, fuck that term - credentialism that conceals rampant HelloWorldism). They can do everything up to the point where you have to understand what comes after 'But'. So what they produce looks slick (presentation frameworks are easy), and they can get it out the door quick... and if it's slick and timely, most people don't give a fuck if the content makes no sense.


    References:

    China CDC, Vital Surveillances: The Epidemiological Characteristics of an Outbreak of 2019 Novel Coronavirus Diseases (COVID-19) — China, 2020 CCDC Weekly, Feb 17 2020

    ISS[1] Report sulle caratteristiche dei pazienti deceduti positivia COVID-19 in Italia Il presente reportè basato sui datiaggiornatial 17 Marz o2020 March 17 2020

    CDC, New ICD code introduced for COVID-19 death, National Vital Statistics System COVID-19 Alert No. 2., March 24 2020


    [1] Instituto Superiore de Sanita
     

    The Canada numbers also agree with your analysis from weeks ago.

    They come with a very small N (3093 confirmed cases in the granular report), but seems like the risk for someone <79 with no co morbidity is minuscule.

    They have it here https://www150.statcan.gc.ca/t1/tbl1/en/tv.action?pid=1310076701

    They added an interesting bit. 247/3093 (8%) cases required Hospitalization…..with a note that 64% of those hospitalized had a co-morbidity. I summed and collated the data by age like you suggested. I even broke it down by hospitalization, ICU requirement, death and the numbers are pretty piss poor. Even if the 'death-with' numbers are juiced, they are not alarming in the least for those not living in an old age home on oxygen.

    Yet we hurtle toward despotism. All of us on house arrest….unless you are an essential service provider….then your service is needed for "ZEE FATHZERLAND". Then u must hurry back home or else…Men in black boots and costumes will be asking for ur "paperzz" . Soon to be thrust into THE GREAT DEPRESSION PART2 ……I try to tell people and they look at me like I have horns.

    "OMFG–430 new cases!!"

    Its times like these I wish I was a mouth breather. so much easier….

  301. @Bragadocious
    Hey dingbat, the only reason you can have the 30th best health system in the world is because you slack on your NATO contributions. We're in essence paying for your colonoscopies. The CBC agrees with my anal-ysis by the way.

    If you were a grown-up country and funded a proper military you'd have the health system of Bolivia, no offense to Bolivia.

    Funny thing about the vaunted Canadian healthcare system:

    One night, an online acquaintance of mine was in an email conversation with me. He kept taking long trips AFK, and apologized for keeping me waiting for a pdf file. He said that he had cut his index finger and couldn’t get the bleeding to stop.

    I replied that he should go to an ER for stitching or cautery. He said that he would when the ER opened at 9:00 am. So, it would be “free”, but he might need a transfusion by the time he could get it treated. Great system they have there.

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