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Australia is a country of 25 million with a couple of big cities and it had a lot of travel back and forth with China. But its coronavirus stats are remarkably non-alarming:

It’s the Northern hemisphere equivalent of October 17 there right now. Here’s Sydney’s idyllic weather forecast in fahrenheit (72 degrees F = 22 degrees C):

Melbourne will be cooler, but still pretty nice:

Or is Australia just part of the East Asian Not So Bad Sphere?

If you told me there was a Chinese version of the virus that spread to East Asia, Australia and California and a more dangerous Italian version that spread to New York City, I might think you are on to something. But is there?

What else is going on there?

 
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  1. https://www.newscientist.com/article/2240226-australia-seems-to-be-keeping-a-lid-on-covid-19-how-is-it-doing-it/

    Australia’s response to the pandemic has largely centred on shutting its borders, limiting public gatherings and conducting large-scale testing and contact tracing.

    Travelling overseas is banned, foreigners aren’t allowed to enter the country, and Australians who return from other countries are kept in mandatory quarantine at specially designated hotels for two weeks.

    Social gatherings of more than two people are also forbidden and leaving the house is permitted only for essential reasons like buying food and exercising.

    Australia has so far tested more than 310,000 people for covid-19. When someone tests positive, their close contacts are tracked down and ordered to self-isolate for two weeks.

    The main reason for Australia’s success is probably its strict travel restrictions, says Adam Kamradt-Scott at the University of Sydney. About 70 per cent of Australians who have tested positive for covid-19 picked it up while they were overseas, making it important to stem this flow, he says, and being an island nation has made it easier for Australia to rapidly shut its borders.

    Social distancing, testing and contact tracing have added to the success of travel bans, says Kamradt-Scott. Plus, there may be cultural factors that have limited the spread of the virus, like the fact that most Australians choose to live in separate dwellings rather than apartment buildings and older people who require care tend to live in care homes rather than with their families, he says.

    Unlike many other countries, Australia has kept schools open, but they don’t appear to have been drivers of virus spread so far, says Kathryn Snow at the University of Melbourne.

    Schools still being open there is an interesting data point.

    • Replies: @AnotherDad

    Travelling overseas is banned, foreigners aren’t allowed to enter the country, and Australians who return from other countries are kept in mandatory quarantine at specially designated hotels for two weeks.
     
    It's funny how closing borders to Western nations--which we know is absolutely positively impossible, even just to immigrants--suddenly became possible not just for immigrants and foreigners but for natives! ... when we have a virus that kills a few percent of old people.

    --> Old people, a few percent risk of death--shut it all down! absolute border control!

    --> Preserving the nation, people and culture, for posterity--can't be done, the flow can not be stopped, it's a law of nature.
    , @PiltdownMan
    Singapore did the same things, beginning at an earlier point in time. But despite being held up as a model for the world in February and March for contact tracing and isolation, and seemingly getting on top of the problem, the number of new cases in Singapore has been spiraling upwards in April.

    https://www.latimes.com/world-nation/story/2020-04-14/coronavirus-surges-migrant-workers-in-singapore

    https://en.wikipedia.org/api/rest_v1/page/graph/png/2020_coronavirus_pandemic_in_Singapore/0/eafd044852ab4c0b619ff4db5ac0fc2801e97255.png

    , @AnotherDad
    Steve, i think res has given you the rest of your answer.

    Sure the weather is nice. They're still in early fall--though even their peak winter in July isn't that terrible, at least Sydney and Melbourne.

    But they've really gone after this thing whole-hog:

    -- The border is closed. Returnees quarantined.

    -- Testing like cracy and contact tracing/testing/quarantining.

    -- Full on police statey social distancing.

    Social gatherings of more than two people are also forbidden and leaving the house is permitted only for essential reasons like buying food and exercising.
     
    Considering US level of distancing seems to have halted--or at least steadied--the epidemic, not a surprise this Australian level has worked.

    Nice the Australian authorities allow "social gatherings" of two. Could have been worse!

    Couldn't do that in the US. it would be blatant triamoryphobia.
    , @Je Suis Omar Mateen
    "Schools still being open there is an interesting data point."

    Chillens are immune to kungflu. Everybody knows that.
    , @axander
    Blast - Comment 51 is meant to be here.
    , @res
    axander's response is now comment 55 and worth reading. Direct link:
    https://www.unz.com/isteve/what-is-australia-doing-right/#comment-3842513
    , @ben tillman

    Australia has so far tested more than 310,000 people for covid-19. When someone tests positive, their close contacts are tracked down and ordered to self-isolate for two weeks.
     
    Ordered to self-isolate? Is there an editor anywhere?
  2. Once the Chinese realized the Americans poisoned Wuhan with the bioweapon, they quickly inoculated their own people with a less deadly variant, while the more deadly type traveled to Europe (maybe Iran got hit with the deadly strain as well and that is what made it to Italy), while the inoculation type went to Australia, Japan, etc.

    The Anglo-Zionists are mad enough at China to unleash WMD on Wuhan, if the Chinese dealt with it swiftly while the blow-back hit Europe and USA, most of the military command going very far up the ladder would be administered the firing squad for great justice.

    • LOL: IHTG
    • Troll: Kyle
    • Replies: @R.G. Camara
    I ...I cannot tell if this is parody or an actual paid shill for the ChiComs.
    , @Che Blutarsky
    Whoever designed the virus that turned your brain to jello showed the upmost competence.

    Unless, of course, this was satire, in which case your comment still needs some work.

    , @Not Raul
    Or perhaps the Anglo-Zionists released the weapon in Iran (just joking, of course), and Chinese engineers brought it home with them. Italy trades with China and Iran, and there are a lot of Chinese in Italy.

    https://www.tehrantimes.com/news/443529/Italians-persistently-willing-to-preserve-trade-with-Iran-under
    , @obwandiyag
    You are exactly right and you can tell you are by the confused bewilderment of the trolls on your tail.
  3. Probably, nothing.

    Even the major cities like Sydney just have more urban sprawl and lack of community spirit than any real city, or even cities in America.

    • Replies: @anon

    lack of community spirit
     
    Yes, this is something that I have thought about before. For example, in Australian high schools (and universities), no one cares about the senior rugby team (or sports team). Only the parents watch the games. There are no massive stadiums or marching bands. Your average student couldn't care less about the senior sports team.

    Why this is, I don't know. In Rugby, there is no equivalent to the quarterback. Maybe there isn't enough star power on the team for anyone to care about it. Maybe Hollywood needs to make movies about Australian high schools and their rugby teams.

  4. A bit OT, but I just got my copy of Texas Monthly, and the article on Covid in Texas says that lockdowns there were ordered not by the Governor or county or city officials, but by judges, first in Dallas and then Houston. I always thought judges could only act on a “case or controversy” involving persons who had submitted to jurisdiction, but I guess in Texas things work differently.

    • Replies: @Squid
    If the judges in question were 'county judges' they may preside over a county government rather than a court. For example, our county judge directed the local governmental response to a recent chemical plant explosion--because that's his job, not hearing cases. He runs the county's government. I'm not interested enough to identify the judges you refer to, so I may well be wrong. BTW, how can you bear to read Texas Monthly? The poz almost jumps off the pages. Almost as bad as The New Yawkah. Subscribe to Texas Highways instead. You'll still learn where to find the best barbecued crabs.
    , @B36
    The "county judge" is the executive officer of a Texas county. Texas counties are run by a "commissioner's court" consisting of 4 "precinct commissioners" chaired by the county judge.
  5. BCG vaccine more recently than some other countries combined with autumn?

  6. I’d guess weather. If you took all our states below the Mason dixon line, the results would look similarly good. That includes the hard hit New Orleans and Arkansas, where they’ve taken almost no measures at all.

    • Replies: @Steve Sailer
    So will this get better as it warms up?

    I hope so.

    , @B36
    Texas, which has a similar population and GDP compared to the country of Australia, has had a grand total of 393 coronavirus deaths as of today. https://coronavirusintexas.org/
    , @Simon Tugmutton
    I'd guess blood-levels of vitamin D. The active form is produced by the action of sunlight on the skin and is critical to the immune system; you can also get it from certain foods. Various studies have shown that healthy levels (40 ng/ml and above) mitigate or even prevent respiratory infections.

    If you have a lot of melanin in your skin, live in relatively high latitudes (e.g. the UK, New York, Chicago) and do not supplement with at least 2000 IU of vitamin D daily, you are a sitting duck for the coronavirus -- as the numbers are showing. Apparently over 80% of American blacks are vitamin D deficient.

    Medical advice to avoid the sun for fear of skin-cancer complicates the picture, of course, and there is widespread deficiency in the whole population. But I'd say that regular barbies on Bondi Beach will do no harm whatever to your chances of surviving the bug.
    , @epebble

    states below the Mason dixon line
     
    The equivalent for the world seems to be 18 degree North latitude. Generally, most of the hell seems to be above and relative peace below this magic line.
  7. Anon[170] • Disclaimer says:

    Italy had Type C, via Singapore and Hong Kong. The U.S. and Australia have Type A, which was the second biggest strain in China. Spain has Type A, like the US, but most of Europe has Type B. This is from a map that I can only find in Google Images, so I can’t link to it. Here’s some text information about the three main strains:

    http://www.financetwitter.com/2020/04/three-coronavirus-variants-discovered-surprisingly-type-a-found-in-americans-wuhans-type-b-and-type-c-in-europe.html

    • Replies: @LondonBob
    The Italian strain is the strain in the US and Spain, the Italian strain has taken over as it is more aggressive, and likely more deadly, than the original Wuhan strain.
    , @Polynikes
    Would each strain have different R0’s?

    I’ve mentioned a couple times that there is something very asymmetrical about the whole thing which has then thrown off typical pattern recognition, even in smart folks.

    In other words, some of the wackiest models could’ve been using R0s from aggressive but non deadly strains and CFRs from the more deadly but not as aggressive strains.
  8. @res
    https://www.newscientist.com/article/2240226-australia-seems-to-be-keeping-a-lid-on-covid-19-how-is-it-doing-it/

    Australia’s response to the pandemic has largely centred on shutting its borders, limiting public gatherings and conducting large-scale testing and contact tracing.

    Travelling overseas is banned, foreigners aren’t allowed to enter the country, and Australians who return from other countries are kept in mandatory quarantine at specially designated hotels for two weeks.

    Social gatherings of more than two people are also forbidden and leaving the house is permitted only for essential reasons like buying food and exercising.

    Australia has so far tested more than 310,000 people for covid-19. When someone tests positive, their close contacts are tracked down and ordered to self-isolate for two weeks.

    The main reason for Australia’s success is probably its strict travel restrictions, says Adam Kamradt-Scott at the University of Sydney. About 70 per cent of Australians who have tested positive for covid-19 picked it up while they were overseas, making it important to stem this flow, he says, and being an island nation has made it easier for Australia to rapidly shut its borders.

    Social distancing, testing and contact tracing have added to the success of travel bans, says Kamradt-Scott. Plus, there may be cultural factors that have limited the spread of the virus, like the fact that most Australians choose to live in separate dwellings rather than apartment buildings and older people who require care tend to live in care homes rather than with their families, he says.

    Unlike many other countries, Australia has kept schools open, but they don’t appear to have been drivers of virus spread so far, says Kathryn Snow at the University of Melbourne.

     

    Schools still being open there is an interesting data point.

    Travelling overseas is banned, foreigners aren’t allowed to enter the country, and Australians who return from other countries are kept in mandatory quarantine at specially designated hotels for two weeks.

    It’s funny how closing borders to Western nations–which we know is absolutely positively impossible, even just to immigrants–suddenly became possible not just for immigrants and foreigners but for natives! … when we have a virus that kills a few percent of old people.

    –> Old people, a few percent risk of death–shut it all down! absolute border control!

    –> Preserving the nation, people and culture, for posterity–can’t be done, the flow can not be stopped, it’s a law of nature.

    • Replies: @Felix Krull
    You're misinformed. The borders are only closed to natives, not to immigrants.
  9. @Polynikes
    I’d guess weather. If you took all our states below the Mason dixon line, the results would look similarly good. That includes the hard hit New Orleans and Arkansas, where they’ve taken almost no measures at all.

    So will this get better as it warms up?

    I hope so.

    • Replies: @Paleo Liberal
    Only one way to find out
    , @NoseytheDuke
    I hope so too. My friends dad died of this virus and he was only 93. His death was so unnecessary, he could have enjoyed another fortnight or two of good health easily, but because of the laxity of Australian government decisions he is now gone before his time. We are all bereft and in total shock at his passing. Cut down in his prime.

    The government of NSW (a state) allowed high-risk cruise ship passengers to disembark and mingle freely with the general population (as they also did with many also high-risk airline arrivals) while cops have been acting like heavy-handed thugs doling out ludicrously high fines for people sitting in parks, on the beach and even a woman teaching her daughter how to drive in their car FFS!

    It's a lovely place but no less bonkers than the US (OK a bit less) just bonkers in a different way.
  10. This new thing just started last month where Google emails me a weekly thing of every where I’ve been in the past week . Shit , I know where I’ve been . Is it a service or a threat ?

    • Replies: @Anon
    Wanting to hit the supermarkets at a non busy time I checked out the Google Maps feature where they show a bar graph of the shop hours and the number of people in the store, including a live bar for the current hour.

    I had unconsciously assumed that the stores reported the data. But of course that's not the case ... Android users with location enabled are unthinking enabling these graphs.

    Which made me think, are hip iPhone heavy neighborhoods underreported? Neighborhoods with lots of smartphone-free seniors?
  11. We closed the borders 1 week after the first reported case, making any recent arrivals quarantine outside of China for 14 days before they were allowed entry. Doing this simply stopped us from being overwhelmed by infected people creating multiple clusters. Closing the borders quickly and then engaging in social distancing and test+trace was surely the right move.

    Luckily enough was only pushed through because the centre-right party in power has sizeable anti-immigration backing so it was a move they could make. If the left Labor party was in power they would have followed New York’s response and yelled RACISM at the potential stigma and continued to let Chinese citizens in.

    Here’s some of the responses to Australia’s effective, and correct, border closure measures to stop the spread:

    “It’s an overreaction,” Abbey Shi told Al Jazeera by telephone.

    Shi is an international student from Shanghai, and the general secretary of the University of Sydney Student Representative Council. She believes that students are keeping themselves well-informed about the coronavirus.
    5th of Feburary 2020

    “I have absolutely no idea what will happen from here,” Ritsu says, describing the travel ban as an “excuse for racism”.
    4th of February 2020

    Dozens of people have rallied outside the immigration department’s Sydney offices calling on Canberra to lift the travel ban on foreign nationals travelling from China amid the coronavirus outbreak.
    Some held signs stating “No politics of fear – we stand with the Chinese community” and “Solidarity with Wuhan” while others chanted “No racism, no fear, Chinese people are welcome here”.

    Ahmed Ademoglu, who represents 700,000 international tertiary students in Australia, said they felt “exploited” and would discourage future students from enrolling here. International students were aggrieved in particular by the detention of Chinese students in Australian airports and the block on Chinese student visas since the travel ban was introduced on February 1

    And my favourite:

    Wang Xining, an official from the Chinese embassy in Canberra…”We hope their rights and interests will be safeguarded, including proper expansion of visas if the validity is over, and also maybe proper compensation for some of the financial losses during this period.

    Funnily enough I didn’t see anyone complaining when Australia extended the travel ban to Iran, Italy, Korea and so forth once they were experiencing outbreaks as well.

    • Agree: LondonBob
    • Troll: Je Suis Omar Mateen
    • Replies: @BenKenobi
    Same up here in the Demented Dominion.

    We were hopin' to grab some of them Trudeaubux but my household isn't poor or rich enough for free money.

    "The migrant calls out for gibs as he undermines you."

    https://globalnews.ca/news/6830196/coronavirus-migrant-workers-foreign-students-assistance/
    , @Clyde
    Actually the Chinese are the real racists here. Surprise! They quarantined Wuhan so that none could could get out of Wuhan to go elsewhere in China ..... But Wuhan residents could still go to the Wuhan International Airport and fly to other nations to infect them.

    The Chicom leadership used the Wu Flu for asymmetrical warfare. They took a virus that escaped from the Wuhan virus lab and they ran with it. Trump was onto this evil shit early, he got good intel, so at least he banned flights direct from China,
    , @Anonymous
    To be clear, borders weren’t closed a week after the first case, except for China. For some reason, the idea that the virus had spread outside of China blindsided governments around the world when they imposed travel restrictions. Italy was given a free pass for weeks, as was the United States, despite obvious evidence of widespread infection in those places. Self-quarantine for overseas arrivals was ignored by a significant proportion of travellers, which is why forced quarantine was introduced.

    Given how hard infection control is, even for professionals, ideally, sick people should have been separated from their families, Wuhan style, and housed in dorms to prevent household transmission. No western country has had the guts to do this.

    , @Pericles
    The Chinese want compensation for the international consequences of the Wuhan virus? There's no way that plan can backfire.
    , @Stebbing Heuer

    Ahmed Ademoglu, who represents 700,000 international tertiary students in Australia, said they felt “exploited” and would discourage future students from enrolling here.
     
    I wish all our foreign students could be like Ahmed.
    , @Kratoklastes

    making any recent arrivals quarantine outside of China for 14 days before they were allowed entry
     
    Everyone decided on '14 days' for very bad-quant reasons.

    There have been observed cases where symptoms (appear to have) developed 27 days after exposure. (It's now necessary to say 'appear to have' when discussing when someone was exposed, because that individual might have been exposed considerably later from a person who was, and remained, asymptomatic - which is the majority of cases, particularly among the young).

    Xi He et al - in Nature yesterday - had a modest-sized sample (94) who were tracked from first symptom onset, with swabs taken every day for 32 days. In general viral load was below the threshold (Ct > 40) after 21 days.

    Note that the threshold at 40Ct is a constraint introduced by the test; it doesn't mean that it's a reading consistent with absence of the virus, or absence of infectiousness (because it's not clear what viral load is required for a patient to shed enough to infect others).

    They estimate that the peak infectiousness - the time at which the infected person is shedding the most virus - is the 2 days prior to the development of symptoms.

    As yet, it's still an open question what actual level viral shedding is required to generate an infection for different people.

    It might well be that asymptomatic people are shedding virus in sufficient quantities to infect the vulnerable, for well over 14 days.

    .

    The USS Theodore Roosevelt's infected cohort give us some better data on asymp-levels among the young and healthy. People like me have always assumed that there is a vast pool of asymps - and that this pool is significantly larger than the pool who have been tested positive.

    We now know that among a large group of tested-positive healthy young males (the infectees in the crew of the USS Theodore Roosevelt), a little over 60% are asymptomatic-but-infected. Some of those might go on to develop symptoms, of course - which casts doubt on the '5-day incubation period'.

    The same (broadly) is true of the Charles de Gaulle (the French navy's carrier): 40 symptomatic crew triggered shipwide testing, which showed that they had 668 positives out of a crew of 1767. That's not to say that 628/668 are asymptomatic: they may be pre-symptomatic, or they might have mild symptoms that they shrugged off. They're sailors, so the symptoms must be mild indeed.

    (As an aside: this shows that the long-standing Navy practice of fucking your shipmates is maybe a part of tradition that should be cast adrift)

    .

    Now, it seems that we can assume that the number of undetected asymptomatic cases in 20-40 year olds is at least twice the number of 20-40 year olds who have bad enough symptoms to be tested under the US testing regime.

    In terms of general health, the average sailor is in considerably better shape than the average civilian - if physical robustness correlates with asymptomaticity then gyms should be opened immediately.
  12. What is Australia doing right? Who cares. End the stupid lockdowns.

  13. What is Australia doing right? It’s just the flu bro. It’s a small country with no massive population centers like New York, LA, or Detroit. Obviously covid—19 is going to hit some people hard, especially those with underlying conditions. It’s a Coronavirus that nobody is immune too. But the actual infirmary magnitude of the virus is no worse than the flu. That’s not to say that the flu is no big deal. Anybody who’s had the flu knows that it’s horrible and it makes you feel like death. But we have some level of herd immunity towards the flu, with the vaccines and from people who have developed immunities against it. So there aren’t millions of people who die from it each year.

    • Replies: @Steve Sailer
    Sydney and Melbourne metro areas are each about 5 million, about 15% bigger than Detroit metro.
    , @Anonymous

    It’s a Coronavirus that nobody is immune too. But the actual infirmary magnitude of the virus is no worse than the flu.
     
    Really?

    https://pagesix.com/2020/04/17/nick-cordero-may-never-walk-again-after-coronavirus-battle-wife-says/?_ga=2.258960522.1084641209.1587110904-1169513343.1587110904

    Tell us more, Dr. Kyle!

    https://nypost.com/2020/04/15/coronavirus-reportedly-damages-patients-kidneys-heart-liver/
    , @RAZ
    Actually it is a large country. But the population is heavily concentrated in a few coastal cities (Sydney, Melbourne, Perth) and the large interior is mostly empty.
    , @SunBakedSuburb
    "What is Australia doing right?"

    Setting aside the possibility that the Fu Manchu virus is a bio-weapon (which is difficult to do considering the nature of the diabolical Fu Manchu), won't this virus have a seasonal life-span like all viruses? Hopefully, the Aussies will be spared the fate of the Dagos. But they will still have to contend with their more hideous indigenous threat: the Funnel Web Spider.
    , @UK
    That's right. The flu is constantly pushing against its herd immunity limit. It's R0 goes up at certain times of year due to weather and then goes done again a bit which explains the seasonal pattern. Sometimes other factors like a significant mutation into a strain decreases general immunity enough to cause something newsworthy.

    This is beginning the same journey and will likely come and go in the same way. It looks particularly drastic now though, because it is not limited much by its own past virulence.

    On that note, should the flu vaccine be free and encouraged for everyone yearly as that might reduce flu season, via herd immunity, to almost nothing?

    Interestingly, for years the flu vaccine was only about 10% effective but now, with refinement of how they design it each year, it has reached about 50%.
  14. Sounds like Aussies actually shut their border. Whereas Trump ordered the border shut and didn’t check the details, which were that the border wasn’t to be shut much at all.

    • Replies: @Unladen Swallow
    Advantages of a parliamentary system, much harder for the bureaucracy and courts to undermine the Prime Minister's directive. Judges have been flouting Trump's directives from the beginning, to say nothing of the bureaucracy. James Q. Wilson documented this a while ago in his book "Bureaucracy"
  15. Take it or leave it

    • Replies: @donut
    "First there was a funeral ..." Maggie Brown , what a beautiful voice to express that . She's got no real following .
    , @donut
    Maggie Brown "first there was a funeral ..." a beautiful voice and line . She has no following "cept me and my friend .
  16. @Marty
    A bit OT, but I just got my copy of Texas Monthly, and the article on Covid in Texas says that lockdowns there were ordered not by the Governor or county or city officials, but by judges, first in Dallas and then Houston. I always thought judges could only act on a “case or controversy” involving persons who had submitted to jurisdiction, but I guess in Texas things work differently.

    If the judges in question were ‘county judges’ they may preside over a county government rather than a court. For example, our county judge directed the local governmental response to a recent chemical plant explosion–because that’s his job, not hearing cases. He runs the county’s government. I’m not interested enough to identify the judges you refer to, so I may well be wrong. BTW, how can you bear to read Texas Monthly? The poz almost jumps off the pages. Almost as bad as The New Yawkah. Subscribe to Texas Highways instead. You’ll still learn where to find the best barbecued crabs.

    • Agree: ben tillman
    • Replies: @anon
    What's the poz mean?
    , @Marty
    Oh, no doubt about it, but I like the crime archives.
  17. Check the population density of Sydney or Melbourne vs NYC—they’re not even close.

    A certain population density is required for exponential spread of the virus, unless it can teleport from one person to another.

    The US also has far more old people than Australia, particularly old people under managed care.

    • Replies: @Steve Sailer
    What happens to old people in Australia?
    , @adreadline

    The US also has far more old people than Australia, particularly old people under managed care.
     
    You mean as a proportion of the population?

    https://images.populationpyramid.net/capture/?selector=%23pyramid-share-container&url=https%3A%2F%2Fwww.populationpyramid.net/australia/2019/%3Fshare%3Dtrue

    https://images.populationpyramid.net/capture/?selector=%23pyramid-share-container&url=https%3A%2F%2Fwww.populationpyramid.net/united-states-of-america/2019/%3Fshare%3Dtrue

    The United States has around 13 times the population of Australia. As of today, it was reported the United States had 30,859 deaths in total due to the new coronavirus, while Australia had 63. 30,859/63 = 489, which is sort of larger than 13.

  18. Only one subway line in all of Australasia.

    Literally, a single line in Sydney (13 stops, open just one year).

    New Zealand is doing even better.

    • Replies: @anonymous

    Only one subway line in all of Australasia.
     
    Classic example of being factual but not truthful.

    Almost all of Sydney's [[trains that run underground in the city center and carry millions of commuters daily in standing room only]] are part of the SydneyTrains system, whereas the one line you are referencing is the Sydney Metro. What is the functional difference? None. Anyone seeing a SydneyTrains train pull into one of the underground stations and looking like New York of Tokyo with people rushing on and off would say "yep, that's a subway."

    Melbourne has the world's largest tram system, which I guess can't be considered a subway because no portion is underground, but as far as commuters traveling cheek to jowel, check.
    , @Kratoklastes
    Melbourne has a reasonably large underground 'loop' that goes under the CBD - the 'City Loop'[1]. It's only 6 stops, but it has feeder routes that carry people from a radial network that's one of the largest in the Southern Hemisphere.

    And during rush hour, trains and trams (the tram network goes about 2/3rds as far as the trains) are absolutely packed - not 'Japanese trains in the 80s' packed, but still pretty bad.

    It's not population density; it's not a slightly-healthier population than Yankistan; it's not lockdowns; it's fucking TEMPERATURE.
    As you would expect for a flu-like coronavirus: propagates better when temps and humidity are low.

    If this thing was worth worrying about[2], our political class' slavish aping of the Yanks and Poms would be a very bad idea... selling the national tiger repelling banana[3] just before tiger season, just to get try and get mentioned in a tweet from #OrangeManBad.

    We get our flu season in winter, just like you sissies on the bottom of the planet. People are slightly immunocompromised in winter - lower VitD etc. Our winter is at the correct position in the year - i.e., late June(ish) to late September.

    Also: the US sick-people-exploiting system is clearly the most expensive possible way to get sub-standard 'health-care'. The UK NHS is not all that much better.

    [1] We used to name things very descriptively - 'Great Sandy Desert', 'Snowy Mountains', 'Western Australia', 'Great Ocean Road'.

    [2] It's not though. It's a nasty-ish respiratory bug that kills very old, very unwell people. For the rest of the population, the excess risk is so near zero that it makes no odds. We will confirm this once all mortality data by age group is available.

    [3] Australia has loads of bananas, one of which I suspect protects us from tigers. Evidence: no tigers outside zoos; no bananas inside tiger cages.

    That is the same evidentiary basis as 'lockdowns work'.

  19. Anonymous[367] • Disclaimer says:

    Australia’s numbers look no diiferent than California’s.

    • Replies: @Steve Sailer
    California, with 60% more people than Australia, had 100 deaths yesterday vs. 2 in Australia.
  20. @res
    https://www.newscientist.com/article/2240226-australia-seems-to-be-keeping-a-lid-on-covid-19-how-is-it-doing-it/

    Australia’s response to the pandemic has largely centred on shutting its borders, limiting public gatherings and conducting large-scale testing and contact tracing.

    Travelling overseas is banned, foreigners aren’t allowed to enter the country, and Australians who return from other countries are kept in mandatory quarantine at specially designated hotels for two weeks.

    Social gatherings of more than two people are also forbidden and leaving the house is permitted only for essential reasons like buying food and exercising.

    Australia has so far tested more than 310,000 people for covid-19. When someone tests positive, their close contacts are tracked down and ordered to self-isolate for two weeks.

    The main reason for Australia’s success is probably its strict travel restrictions, says Adam Kamradt-Scott at the University of Sydney. About 70 per cent of Australians who have tested positive for covid-19 picked it up while they were overseas, making it important to stem this flow, he says, and being an island nation has made it easier for Australia to rapidly shut its borders.

    Social distancing, testing and contact tracing have added to the success of travel bans, says Kamradt-Scott. Plus, there may be cultural factors that have limited the spread of the virus, like the fact that most Australians choose to live in separate dwellings rather than apartment buildings and older people who require care tend to live in care homes rather than with their families, he says.

    Unlike many other countries, Australia has kept schools open, but they don’t appear to have been drivers of virus spread so far, says Kathryn Snow at the University of Melbourne.

     

    Schools still being open there is an interesting data point.

    Singapore did the same things, beginning at an earlier point in time. But despite being held up as a model for the world in February and March for contact tracing and isolation, and seemingly getting on top of the problem, the number of new cases in Singapore has been spiraling upwards in April.

    https://www.latimes.com/world-nation/story/2020-04-14/coronavirus-surges-migrant-workers-in-singapore

    • Replies: @Change that Matters
    Yeah, but I understood the increase was mainly due to migrant workers crammed into dormitories. Or have I misread that?
    , @Ed
    Singapore relies heavily on migrants and the new cases appear to be spreading mostly at migrant dorms.
    as per the linked article.

    COVID-19 cases in Singapore have tripled since the start of the month to more than 3,200, with most of the new infections found in laborers from India, Bangladesh and other countries who live in crowded, airless dormitories on the edges of the modern, manicured city-state they’ve helped build.
     

    , @Polynikes
    Obviously. Flatten the curve is about hospital space. You can’t hide from the virus forever. Australia will have cases rise when they let people back out of their cages.
  21. @res
    https://www.newscientist.com/article/2240226-australia-seems-to-be-keeping-a-lid-on-covid-19-how-is-it-doing-it/

    Australia’s response to the pandemic has largely centred on shutting its borders, limiting public gatherings and conducting large-scale testing and contact tracing.

    Travelling overseas is banned, foreigners aren’t allowed to enter the country, and Australians who return from other countries are kept in mandatory quarantine at specially designated hotels for two weeks.

    Social gatherings of more than two people are also forbidden and leaving the house is permitted only for essential reasons like buying food and exercising.

    Australia has so far tested more than 310,000 people for covid-19. When someone tests positive, their close contacts are tracked down and ordered to self-isolate for two weeks.

    The main reason for Australia’s success is probably its strict travel restrictions, says Adam Kamradt-Scott at the University of Sydney. About 70 per cent of Australians who have tested positive for covid-19 picked it up while they were overseas, making it important to stem this flow, he says, and being an island nation has made it easier for Australia to rapidly shut its borders.

    Social distancing, testing and contact tracing have added to the success of travel bans, says Kamradt-Scott. Plus, there may be cultural factors that have limited the spread of the virus, like the fact that most Australians choose to live in separate dwellings rather than apartment buildings and older people who require care tend to live in care homes rather than with their families, he says.

    Unlike many other countries, Australia has kept schools open, but they don’t appear to have been drivers of virus spread so far, says Kathryn Snow at the University of Melbourne.

     

    Schools still being open there is an interesting data point.

    Steve, i think res has given you the rest of your answer.

    Sure the weather is nice. They’re still in early fall–though even their peak winter in July isn’t that terrible, at least Sydney and Melbourne.

    But they’ve really gone after this thing whole-hog:

    — The border is closed. Returnees quarantined.

    — Testing like cracy and contact tracing/testing/quarantining.

    — Full on police statey social distancing.

    Social gatherings of more than two people are also forbidden and leaving the house is permitted only for essential reasons like buying food and exercising.

    Considering US level of distancing seems to have halted–or at least steadied–the epidemic, not a surprise this Australian level has worked.

    Nice the Australian authorities allow “social gatherings” of two. Could have been worse!

    Couldn’t do that in the US. it would be blatant triamoryphobia.

    • Replies: @Reg Cæsar

    Returnees quarantined.
     
    "Returnees"? Who returned them?


    And why?

  22. @swami_cuckenstein
    Once the Chinese realized the Americans poisoned Wuhan with the bioweapon, they quickly inoculated their own people with a less deadly variant, while the more deadly type traveled to Europe (maybe Iran got hit with the deadly strain as well and that is what made it to Italy), while the inoculation type went to Australia, Japan, etc.

    The Anglo-Zionists are mad enough at China to unleash WMD on Wuhan, if the Chinese dealt with it swiftly while the blow-back hit Europe and USA, most of the military command going very far up the ladder would be administered the firing squad for great justice.

    I …I cannot tell if this is parody or an actual paid shill for the ChiComs.

    • Replies: @anonymous
    Probably the Duck, quacking again.
  23. @PiltdownMan
    Singapore did the same things, beginning at an earlier point in time. But despite being held up as a model for the world in February and March for contact tracing and isolation, and seemingly getting on top of the problem, the number of new cases in Singapore has been spiraling upwards in April.

    https://www.latimes.com/world-nation/story/2020-04-14/coronavirus-surges-migrant-workers-in-singapore

    https://en.wikipedia.org/api/rest_v1/page/graph/png/2020_coronavirus_pandemic_in_Singapore/0/eafd044852ab4c0b619ff4db5ac0fc2801e97255.png

    Yeah, but I understood the increase was mainly due to migrant workers crammed into dormitories. Or have I misread that?

    • Replies: @PiltdownMan
    The huge increase in the migrant worker cases obscures the fact that the number of untraceable local cases is also running away from them.

    The turning point for the authorities there, who were using a massive civil defense effort to contact trace the first and second degree contacts of every Covid-19 case (within 2 hours), and a strategy of isolating and hospitalizing every case, was when they confirmed that asymptomatic transmission was definitely happening.

    Once that point is reached, the only workable strategy is to increase testing as much as possible, it seems to me.
  24. What is Australia doing right?

    Not much to be honest.

  25. e says:

    Fauci just completed an interview with Laura Ingraham, Fox News. She asked him, “What’s going on with California, why so few deaths compared to places like New York and Jersey? Is it a different strain of the virus that struck CA, a weaker one?”

    He said, “No, not a different strain, not a weaker strain either.”

    Fauci went on to explain that while what we’ve read is true, that the first cases on the West Coast (WA’s nursing home victims and CA’s acting as a port for some Princess passengers) were derived from contact with Asia while New York’s were primarily from contacts from Europe, the infections were NOT from different strains.

    He said that since WA and CA were able to recognize and pinpoint the outbreaks, they were able to act fast to prevent the spread while New York didn’t recognize the danger posed by visitors from Europe and were late to act.

    • Replies: @PiltdownMan
    There are huge differences in death rates in Europe, too, between Belgium and nearby Switzerland, for instance, that are not explained by the difference in the number of hospital beds per capita, or critical care beds per capita.

    On the latter score, America has the highest number of critical care beds per capita, along with Germany. Go figure.

    https://i.imgur.com/jPhPFcl.jpg

  26. @Anonymous
    Australia’s numbers look no diiferent than California’s.

    California, with 60% more people than Australia, had 100 deaths yesterday vs. 2 in Australia.

    • Replies: @Kim

    California, with 60% more people than Australia, had 100 deaths yesterday vs. 2 in Australia.
     
    Some people might say that California had 100 deaths from the rona yesterday. But I am sure it is more accurate to say that they reported 100 deaths.
  27. @Daniel Williams
    Check the population density of Sydney or Melbourne vs NYC—they’re not even close.

    A certain population density is required for exponential spread of the virus, unless it can teleport from one person to another.

    The US also has far more old people than Australia, particularly old people under managed care.

    What happens to old people in Australia?

    • Replies: @anon

    What happens to old people in Australia?
     
    "I'm going outside, and I may be a while".
    , @Daniel Williams
    They have some kind of national service called Aged Care that takes care of ‘em in a different way than we do ours. Old people get subsidized services ranging from meal delivery to rooms in nursing homes.

    The Strine Institute of Health sayeth:

    How many people use aged care?
    More than 1.2 million people [We have what, 50M that we know of here?] received aged care services during 2017–18, with most (77%) receiving support in their home or other community-based settings. Putting this in context, of Australians aged 65 and over in 2017–18: 7% accessed residential aged care.
     
    So most of ‘em are in their own houses, and not crammed together like ours on old-people reservations and crooked nursing homes. That population density figure includes old people too.
    , @Richard of Melbourne
    Have you ever seen Logan's Run, Steve?

    The difference is that in Australia we send the oldies to Carousel at 70, not 30.
    , @M_Young
    https://www.youtube.com/results?search_query=logans+run+carousel
    , @Anonymous
    Soylent Green Baby, Soylent Green.

    Seriously AU has plenty of elderly. I cannot discern a difference between age pyramids US and AU.

    Australia has low population density, but is pretty urban/suburban per capita.

    Testing is not yet at the level of everyone with symptoms in most states. Detected cases have dropped. Hard to say what actuals are doing. Tests/capita are quite high but not at Germany or Spain levels.

    People encouraged to school from home. Maybe 5 kids a class now, same kids, from HCW or other parents who can't survive apparently. So while no official closure it's almost the same thing.

    Public gatherings limited to 2 people.

    Travel restrictions (14 day quarantines via self isolation) between several states.

    Incoming travel ban since March 20. China ban earlier than that.

    Encouragement to stay at home for all but essential travel.

    Encouragement to social distance (1.5m apart) and use good hand hygeine. Minimum area per person applies. 4m^2 from memory.

    Indications are that level of flu symptoms, and flu most likely, are low.

    Not a lot of mask usage of any kind seen. Maybe 1/20 wearing. Some non-Asians.

    Few temperature checks in public.

    There is more AU could be doing that is for sure. We could learn from SK and Taiwan that is for sure.
    , @Muggles
    >>What happens to old people in Australia?<<

    Dingos. Mmmm... tasty boomers ....mmm.
    , @Anon87
    This is one of the many things that I hope get reappraised during this health scare, but probably not. Like most obese people who lose a foot to diabetes but still don't change their lifestyle. Anyway, things that could/should make a comeback:

    1) Education. From the lack of actual teaching at lower grades all the way up to the pure highway robbery of most colleges.

    2) Cramming old people into nursing homes

    3) Filthy, decrepit, crumbling cities

    4) Immigration and manufacturing policies

    5) Traditional nuclear family. At a minimum, eating dinner together before everyone goes back to their corner of the house. Maybe some people reconsider if the rat race is all it is cracked up to be

    6) Trying to have some rainy day funds available

    7) Maybe take some more precautions during cold and flu season (this is probably the only not backwards looking item). Be more Asian with acceptance of masks in public. Medical, not Antifa style.

    I know, I'm probably dreaming given the demographics and societal rot. But now is the time to push on it before we go back to our routines.
  28. Their numbers are similar to ours (New Zealand), per head, and they have had less stringent lockdowns, but otherwise similar approach, and, of course, same season.

    We are just starting to do random testing of non-symptomatic, supermarket shoppers, in areas which had community outbreak. So far all negative.

  29. @Kyle
    What is Australia doing right? It’s just the flu bro. It’s a small country with no massive population centers like New York, LA, or Detroit. Obviously covid—19 is going to hit some people hard, especially those with underlying conditions. It’s a Coronavirus that nobody is immune too. But the actual infirmary magnitude of the virus is no worse than the flu. That’s not to say that the flu is no big deal. Anybody who’s had the flu knows that it’s horrible and it makes you feel like death. But we have some level of herd immunity towards the flu, with the vaccines and from people who have developed immunities against it. So there aren’t millions of people who die from it each year.

    Sydney and Melbourne metro areas are each about 5 million, about 15% bigger than Detroit metro.

    • Replies: @Kyle
    Ahh but Detroit proper is half a million people and Sydney proper is a quarter million. Metro Detroit is huge and very spread out, land area wise.
  30. Any subways in California? (or does anyone use them?)

  31. I’m not a scientist. But early on they were saying that the virus mutated every 15 days. How much does it actually mutate for them to say it’s officially mutated? I suppose enough to be significantly different. Is it possible for the virus to mutate into different strains with significantly different case fatality rates?

    • Replies: @moshe
    it's possible, but the experts seem to think that it is very unlikely and that the mutations are largely irrelevant ones. don't worry it'll be okay.
  32. @Change that Matters
    Yeah, but I understood the increase was mainly due to migrant workers crammed into dormitories. Or have I misread that?

    The huge increase in the migrant worker cases obscures the fact that the number of untraceable local cases is also running away from them.

    The turning point for the authorities there, who were using a massive civil defense effort to contact trace the first and second degree contacts of every Covid-19 case (within 2 hours), and a strategy of isolating and hospitalizing every case, was when they confirmed that asymptomatic transmission was definitely happening.

    Once that point is reached, the only workable strategy is to increase testing as much as possible, it seems to me.

    • Thanks: Change that Matters
  33. Peter Collignon, an infectious diseases physician and microbiologist at Canberra Hospital, told Reuters in March that Australia’s low case count could be credited to the country’s early actions against the virus.

    “We acted much earlier than the likes of Italy and the United States,” Collignon said. “We had much less community transmission and we still shut our borders and implemented social distancing policies such as shutting down bars and pubs, and did much more testing.”

    Australia closed all non-essential businesses and public gatherings of more than two people as part of its social distancing order. Anyone who violates the order faces fines or even jail time.

    https://www.businessinsider.com/how-australia-handled-coronavirus-pandemic-2020-4

  34. @Steve Sailer
    What happens to old people in Australia?

    What happens to old people in Australia?

    “I’m going outside, and I may be a while”.

    • LOL: moshe
    • Replies: @Steve Sailer
    In Stoppard's Jumpers, two British astronauts on the Moon find out there is only enough fuel to lift one of them off again. They have a fistfight in front of the TV cameras and the winner slams the hatch shut with the words, "I'm going up now. I may be gone for awhile."
  35. Are Austrailians wearing masks everywhere?

    • Replies: @Richard of Melbourne
    No, very few people wearing masks.

    FWIW, I think it's a combination of low population density, some smart early border closures and a high level of compliance with the (sometimes OTT) social-distancing rules.
    , @Anonymous
    No, mask wearing is seen as an Asian trait in Australia, and is rare for non-Asians. A few high-IQ types from the rest of the population may be starting to wear masks, but the vast majority are pliant and follow government guidance, which is pretty much still “masks don’t work”. Social distancing is also easier in Australia than other places.

    More outbreaks or a return to wider public transport usage may change this.

  36. @e
    Fauci just completed an interview with Laura Ingraham, Fox News. She asked him, "What's going on with California, why so few deaths compared to places like New York and Jersey? Is it a different strain of the virus that struck CA, a weaker one?"

    He said, "No, not a different strain, not a weaker strain either."

    Fauci went on to explain that while what we've read is true, that the first cases on the West Coast (WA's nursing home victims and CA's acting as a port for some Princess passengers) were derived from contact with Asia while New York's were primarily from contacts from Europe, the infections were NOT from different strains.

    He said that since WA and CA were able to recognize and pinpoint the outbreaks, they were able to act fast to prevent the spread while New York didn't recognize the danger posed by visitors from Europe and were late to act.

    There are huge differences in death rates in Europe, too, between Belgium and nearby Switzerland, for instance, that are not explained by the difference in the number of hospital beds per capita, or critical care beds per capita.

    On the latter score, America has the highest number of critical care beds per capita, along with Germany. Go figure.

    • Replies: @GermanReader2
    I did not follow the situation regarding corona in other countries religiously, but from casual news-watching I got the following picture regarding the situation in the different European countries:
    It seems, one can group the countries by the language-family of the official language. Then there are three groups:
    -The Slawic-speaking countries (Poland, Czech Republic, Hungary etc.): By and large they do not have a lot of cases. That seems to come from the relative poverty there, that makes it unlikely to go skiing in the Alps and a more reality-based outlook from life that comes from living under communism and the accompanied poverty (these people cannot be white-guilted into staging hug-a-Chinese-days or cut off travel from countries inhabited by people of a different race). Most cases there seem to come from seasonal workers, who worked in the restaurants etc. in the skiing-towns in the Alps. Since these are overwhelmingly young people the death rate is not that high. It will be interesting to see, what happens in the summer, since a lof Eastern Europeans do agricultural work in Western Europe and might bring the virus back into their countries
    -The countries that speak a Germanic language (Germany, Austria, Switzerland)
    These countries have a huge number of cases (Austria and Switzerland have a huge number of cases per capita), but seem to be holding on. The death-rate is average to low for coronavirus. They can even support the health system of the countries that speak a Romance language by sending medical supplies there and accepting ICU patients.
    -The countries that speak a Romance language (France, Italy, Spain). Here, the healthcare-system is completely overwhelmed, and the death-rate is around 10 percent and would probably be even higher if not for support from their neighbours.


    A few notable exceptions and points for thought:
    -The worst hit part of France (Alsace) is inhabited by ethnic Germans (You can see that by looking in a phonebook there or seeing the names of some of the doctors interviewed. They even have the highest consumption of sauerkraut per capita there). This to me looks as if the language spoken is a factor (maybe some languages produce more flying particles when speaking than other languages)
    -Portugal is remarkably unscathed
    -Is here anyone from Switzerland, that can tell me, what part of the country is the hardes hit and whether the health system has collapsed in some parts of the country but not in others?
    -According to this website (https://de.statista.com/statistik/daten/studie/1103785/umfrage/mortalitaetsrate-des-coronavirus-nach-laendern/) Britain has a remarkably high fatality rate and Belgiums is even higher. Can anyone tell me, what is going on there?
    -The Netherlands have a remarkably high mortality rate as well. In Germany, people always thought, that the Dutch healthcare-system was better than theirs. I wonder, what is going on.
    -I would love to see the, whether there is a difference between the Flamish (Germanic language) and French-speaking parts of Belgium.

  37. This might not be particularly helpful, but one factor could well be that Australia has Australians, Canada has Canadians (in reference to an earlier post asking what Canada was doing right) and the United States has Americans.

    • Replies: @Richard of Melbourne
    We are not all Australians in Australia, just as there are a lot of people other than Americans living in the USA.

    See the recent fate of NYC for an example of the virus scything its way through a largely non-American population (especially in Queens).
  38. Posted previously on this. Schools are open here but attendance way down. Maybe 25% of normal. People are voluntarily keeping kids home. Plus it is currently 2 weeks of school holidays. They say kids will go back 2 weeks later than normal.

    Most cases came in with European and American travellers. Large group from cruise ships.
    https://www.health.gov.au/news/health-alerts/novel-coronavirus-2019-ncov-health-alert/coronavirus-covid-19-current-situation-and-case-numbers

    • Agree: Blinky Bill
    • Thanks: res
  39. @swami_cuckenstein
    Once the Chinese realized the Americans poisoned Wuhan with the bioweapon, they quickly inoculated their own people with a less deadly variant, while the more deadly type traveled to Europe (maybe Iran got hit with the deadly strain as well and that is what made it to Italy), while the inoculation type went to Australia, Japan, etc.

    The Anglo-Zionists are mad enough at China to unleash WMD on Wuhan, if the Chinese dealt with it swiftly while the blow-back hit Europe and USA, most of the military command going very far up the ladder would be administered the firing squad for great justice.

    Whoever designed the virus that turned your brain to jello showed the upmost competence.

    Unless, of course, this was satire, in which case your comment still needs some work.

    • Replies: @anon
    Hey, don't diss jello; it has become dung.
  40. I’m still at a loss. Even going with about the most expensive currently available testing regime, the Abbott ID NOW 15 minute routine, would not the “cost” be roughly a tenth the lower end estimate for the US “economic bail out”. Six weeks of 100% population repeated testing should darn near catch/quarantine virtually every covid case.

    1 Abbott test tool per 100 persons in US (no waiting/backlog/excusses)
    6 tests for everyone the US

    335M US subjects / 100 = 3.5M x $10K Abbott ID NOW 15 minute test machines = $35 Billion

    335M US subjects x ($100 per test kit + $100 per test “labor”) = $67 Billion

    $67Billion x 6 weekly tests = $.4 Trillion, a bargain vs repeated shutdowns?

    C52922BB-8881-46E9-95D5-79067D41F878

    57A268C7-6D3C-494D-970D-5E4346DAAD03

  41. @Steve Sailer
    What happens to old people in Australia?

    They have some kind of national service called Aged Care that takes care of ‘em in a different way than we do ours. Old people get subsidized services ranging from meal delivery to rooms in nursing homes.

    The Strine Institute of Health sayeth:

    How many people use aged care?
    More than 1.2 million people [We have what, 50M that we know of here?] received aged care services during 2017–18, with most (77%) receiving support in their home or other community-based settings. Putting this in context, of Australians aged 65 and over in 2017–18: 7% accessed residential aged care.

    So most of ‘em are in their own houses, and not crammed together like ours on old-people reservations and crooked nursing homes. That population density figure includes old people too.

    • Replies: @peterike

    They have some kind of national service called Aged Care that takes care of ‘em in a different way than we do ours. Old people get subsidized services ranging from meal delivery to rooms in nursing homes.
     
    So do Asians step off the airplane in Australia and by the next day have old Uncle and old Auntie signed up getting full benefits, even though they never paid a dime into the system?
  42. @Daniel Williams
    Check the population density of Sydney or Melbourne vs NYC—they’re not even close.

    A certain population density is required for exponential spread of the virus, unless it can teleport from one person to another.

    The US also has far more old people than Australia, particularly old people under managed care.

    The US also has far more old people than Australia, particularly old people under managed care.

    You mean as a proportion of the population?

    https://images.populationpyramid.net/capture/?selector=%23pyramid-share-container&url=https%3A%2F%2Fwww.populationpyramid.net/australia/2019/%3Fshare%3Dtrue

    https://images.populationpyramid.net/capture/?selector=%23pyramid-share-container&url=https%3A%2F%2Fwww.populationpyramid.net/united-states-of-america/2019/%3Fshare%3Dtrue

    The United States has around 13 times the population of Australia. As of today, it was reported the United States had 30,859 deaths in total due to the new coronavirus, while Australia had 63. 30,859/63 = 489, which is sort of larger than 13.

    • Replies: @Daniel Williams
    Naw, I’m talking about absolute numbers. This thing seems to thrive when lots of people are crammed together.

    Australia doesn’t have as many people, and the people they do have—including the old ones—aren’t pressed in as tight against each other as ours are in NYC.

    But this is just a hunch. I’m sure the various other things they did were more of a factor. But still... How does one enact “social distancing” in a nursing home with 200+ beds and a small staff of low-paid, probably disgruntled carers?
  43. @res
    https://www.newscientist.com/article/2240226-australia-seems-to-be-keeping-a-lid-on-covid-19-how-is-it-doing-it/

    Australia’s response to the pandemic has largely centred on shutting its borders, limiting public gatherings and conducting large-scale testing and contact tracing.

    Travelling overseas is banned, foreigners aren’t allowed to enter the country, and Australians who return from other countries are kept in mandatory quarantine at specially designated hotels for two weeks.

    Social gatherings of more than two people are also forbidden and leaving the house is permitted only for essential reasons like buying food and exercising.

    Australia has so far tested more than 310,000 people for covid-19. When someone tests positive, their close contacts are tracked down and ordered to self-isolate for two weeks.

    The main reason for Australia’s success is probably its strict travel restrictions, says Adam Kamradt-Scott at the University of Sydney. About 70 per cent of Australians who have tested positive for covid-19 picked it up while they were overseas, making it important to stem this flow, he says, and being an island nation has made it easier for Australia to rapidly shut its borders.

    Social distancing, testing and contact tracing have added to the success of travel bans, says Kamradt-Scott. Plus, there may be cultural factors that have limited the spread of the virus, like the fact that most Australians choose to live in separate dwellings rather than apartment buildings and older people who require care tend to live in care homes rather than with their families, he says.

    Unlike many other countries, Australia has kept schools open, but they don’t appear to have been drivers of virus spread so far, says Kathryn Snow at the University of Melbourne.

     

    Schools still being open there is an interesting data point.

    “Schools still being open there is an interesting data point.”

    Chillens are immune to kungflu. Everybody knows that.

    • Replies: @res

    Chillens are immune to kungflu. Everybody knows that.
     
    But perhaps not immune to transmitting it.

    If you look at the Kinsa data, school closings seem to be very effective. The incubation period is about 5 days so it takes that long to see the effect of a change in policy.
    https://www.kinsahealth.co/tale-of-two-cities-atypical-illness-trends-for-santa-clara-and-miami-dade-county/

    https://www.kinsahealth.co/wp-content/uploads/2020/03/Santa-Clara-and-Miami-Dade-County-Share-of-Population-with-Flu-Like-Illness-1.png
  44. @Tusk
    We closed the borders 1 week after the first reported case, making any recent arrivals quarantine outside of China for 14 days before they were allowed entry. Doing this simply stopped us from being overwhelmed by infected people creating multiple clusters. Closing the borders quickly and then engaging in social distancing and test+trace was surely the right move.

    Luckily enough was only pushed through because the centre-right party in power has sizeable anti-immigration backing so it was a move they could make. If the left Labor party was in power they would have followed New York's response and yelled RACISM at the potential stigma and continued to let Chinese citizens in.

    Here's some of the responses to Australia's effective, and correct, border closure measures to stop the spread:

    “It’s an overreaction,” Abbey Shi told Al Jazeera by telephone.

    Shi is an international student from Shanghai, and the general secretary of the University of Sydney Student Representative Council. She believes that students are keeping themselves well-informed about the coronavirus.
    5th of Feburary 2020
     

    “I have absolutely no idea what will happen from here,” Ritsu says, describing the travel ban as an “excuse for racism”.
    4th of February 2020
     

    Dozens of people have rallied outside the immigration department’s Sydney offices calling on Canberra to lift the travel ban on foreign nationals travelling from China amid the coronavirus outbreak.
    Some held signs stating “No politics of fear – we stand with the Chinese community” and “Solidarity with Wuhan” while others chanted “No racism, no fear, Chinese people are welcome here”.
     

    Ahmed Ademoglu, who represents 700,000 international tertiary students in Australia, said they felt "exploited" and would discourage future students from enrolling here. International students were aggrieved in particular by the detention of Chinese students in Australian airports and the block on Chinese student visas since the travel ban was introduced on February 1
     
    And my favourite:

    Wang Xining, an official from the Chinese embassy in Canberra..."We hope their rights and interests will be safeguarded, including proper expansion of visas if the validity is over, and also maybe proper compensation for some of the financial losses during this period."
     
    Funnily enough I didn't see anyone complaining when Australia extended the travel ban to Iran, Italy, Korea and so forth once they were experiencing outbreaks as well.

    Same up here in the Demented Dominion.

    We were hopin’ to grab some of them Trudeaubux but my household isn’t poor or rich enough for free money.

    “The migrant calls out for gibs as he undermines you.”

    https://globalnews.ca/news/6830196/coronavirus-migrant-workers-foreign-students-assistance/

    • Replies: @Tusk
    Same thing here Ben. Lost 35% of my household revenue due to government restrictions that put my wife (temporarily) out of work, but too we are too "well off" for her to receive anything and because she's only been in her new job after finishing studies for a few months she doesn't receive any wage supplements that long-term workers receive. Fine by me, not asking for a hand out, but once again it will be the middle class who pays for all this and receives nothing.

    We also had the same thing here with the Left calling for migrant workers to receive government hand outs because they were out of a job. Luckily our PM had the gall to say if migrants are doing it tough they can always go home and get supported by their own government.

    Reminds me of a joke (paraphrasing):

    A Syrian refugee in Canada goes up to a man in the street, and says to him "Thank you for letting me come to your country" to which the man, who is Chinese, replies this isn't my country.

    So the man goes up to the next guy in the street and says to him "Thank you for letting me come to your country" to which the guy, an Paki, replies this isn't my country.

    Finally the man goes upto a third fellow in the street and says to him "Thank your letting me come to your country" to which the fellow, a Somalian, replies this isn't my country.

    The Syrian says to him "Where are all the Candians?!"
    To which the Somalian answers "Probably at work."
     
  45. @anon

    What happens to old people in Australia?
     
    "I'm going outside, and I may be a while".

    In Stoppard’s Jumpers, two British astronauts on the Moon find out there is only enough fuel to lift one of them off again. They have a fistfight in front of the TV cameras and the winner slams the hatch shut with the words, “I’m going up now. I may be gone for awhile.”

    • Replies: @Steve Sailer
    It's a reference to the self-sacrifice of Lt. Oates on Scott's Antarctic mission in 1905:

    https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Lawrence_Oates
  46. @Steve Sailer
    In Stoppard's Jumpers, two British astronauts on the Moon find out there is only enough fuel to lift one of them off again. They have a fistfight in front of the TV cameras and the winner slams the hatch shut with the words, "I'm going up now. I may be gone for awhile."

    It’s a reference to the self-sacrifice of Lt. Oates on Scott’s Antarctic mission in 1905:

    https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Lawrence_Oates

    • Agree: Blinky Bill
    • Replies: @Oo-ee-oo-ah-ah-ting-tang-walla-walla-bing-bang
    Captain Oates, feel free to delete this after
  47. @dvorak
    Sounds like Aussies actually shut their border. Whereas Trump ordered the border shut and didn't check the details, which were that the border wasn't to be shut much at all.

    Advantages of a parliamentary system, much harder for the bureaucracy and courts to undermine the Prime Minister’s directive. Judges have been flouting Trump’s directives from the beginning, to say nothing of the bureaucracy. James Q. Wilson documented this a while ago in his book “Bureaucracy”

    • Replies: @dfordoom

    Advantages of a parliamentary system, much harder for the bureaucracy and courts to undermine the Prime Minister’s directive.
     
    Yes, having a rational workable political system certainly helps. In the US you have a political system that makes your country ungovernable.

    In Australia we also have much much less corruption. So Australian politics attracts a much better class of person compared to US politics.

    Australians are much less religious than Americans and less prone to hysteria.

    Australia also has a rational fully functioning welfare state so we don't have a hostile underclass to the same extent as the US. We don't have a huge homeless problem. And we do make an effort o look after old people.

    We have a rational functioning universal health system that is not riddled with corruption and profiteering.

    We also don't shoot each other as often. Even our cops are not trigger-happy thugs.

    Imagine a country in which government basically works and the grown-ups are in charge and that's Australia. It's not perfect but mostly it works.
    , @sb
    Some of the comments here are laughable

    It has always been the case that if it is pointed out that some country is doing better at something/anything than the US that there will be a sizeable cohort of Americans who will refuse to take this at face value - maybe they're lying/cheating or it's comparing apples and oranges -everyone knows that when it's a level playing field the US always wins etc etc
    Ironically it is this same group who are often the same people who are endlessly complaing how Amerika has gone to the dogs

    What's the American expression ? Keep drinking the cool aid ?
    , @dearieme
    Advantages of a parliamentary system, much harder for the bureaucracy and courts to undermine the Prime Minister’s directive.

    That wasn't the lesson of Brexit where the UK Supreme Court simply made up "law" to obstruct Boris.

    P.S. The sooner we get rid of this new-fangled Supreme Court the better. It's another Toni Blair fiasco.
    , @Anonymous
    Americans like having a weak executive. They're willing to put up with the problems this causes because they think the alternative will cause worse problems.
  48. anonymous[117] • Disclaimer says:
    @R.G. Camara
    I ...I cannot tell if this is parody or an actual paid shill for the ChiComs.

    Probably the Duck, quacking again.

    • Replies: @Unladen Swallow
    Unlikely to be td, there aren't a bunch of grammatical errors or misspellings in the first paragraph.
  49. All this strain speculation is a red herring. How do you explain Austria and Germany? This is all a question of simple math. A few days + or – in timing of your shutdown has enormous downstream effects in exponential growth.

    • Agree: niceland
  50. Very little density, very little public transportation on which the virus can spread (Australia is one of the few major countries without a subway system), early closing up of the country to foreigners, very few multigeneration households where old folks can be infected by their asymptomatic children. New Zealand which has similar characteristics, is also doing very well in containing the plague.

    • Replies: @angmoh
    Large Australian cities have metro train systems, they are just mostly not underground, and are not called subways - hence the lack of results when you google "Australian subways"

    You can rack up 90% of the Australian results to;
    a) Early (enough) quarantining of arrivals and border closures that were actually enforced (being an island helps)
    b) Strong healthcare / biotech capability = high testing capacity
    c) Reasonably unified government approach - easier with only a handful of relevant states
    d) Luck - for the above factors, and that that larger clusters didn't develop earlier. It is surprising given the time of year this happened, that more cases were not imported from China early. Australia's universities (highly reliant on Chinese students) were instructing students from China how to get around the measures that preceded the border closures (i.e. routes through other provinces/countries) well into March

    These factors allowed test and trace techniques to be used effectively - once the numbers get too big there's not much you can do, but it never got to that point in Aus. The same results were achieved in New Zealand with a very similar approach.


    Things that probably don't matter that much;
    Weather - This would have been demonstrated clearly if it were true. The least air-conditioned buildings in Singapore are the workers dorms, but that's where the breakouts are
    Physical density - Human-to-human social contact is the major relevant variable here. Large train patronage likely affects it, but that didn't stop it spreading in rural Italian towns
  51. @Tusk
    We closed the borders 1 week after the first reported case, making any recent arrivals quarantine outside of China for 14 days before they were allowed entry. Doing this simply stopped us from being overwhelmed by infected people creating multiple clusters. Closing the borders quickly and then engaging in social distancing and test+trace was surely the right move.

    Luckily enough was only pushed through because the centre-right party in power has sizeable anti-immigration backing so it was a move they could make. If the left Labor party was in power they would have followed New York's response and yelled RACISM at the potential stigma and continued to let Chinese citizens in.

    Here's some of the responses to Australia's effective, and correct, border closure measures to stop the spread:

    “It’s an overreaction,” Abbey Shi told Al Jazeera by telephone.

    Shi is an international student from Shanghai, and the general secretary of the University of Sydney Student Representative Council. She believes that students are keeping themselves well-informed about the coronavirus.
    5th of Feburary 2020
     

    “I have absolutely no idea what will happen from here,” Ritsu says, describing the travel ban as an “excuse for racism”.
    4th of February 2020
     

    Dozens of people have rallied outside the immigration department’s Sydney offices calling on Canberra to lift the travel ban on foreign nationals travelling from China amid the coronavirus outbreak.
    Some held signs stating “No politics of fear – we stand with the Chinese community” and “Solidarity with Wuhan” while others chanted “No racism, no fear, Chinese people are welcome here”.
     

    Ahmed Ademoglu, who represents 700,000 international tertiary students in Australia, said they felt "exploited" and would discourage future students from enrolling here. International students were aggrieved in particular by the detention of Chinese students in Australian airports and the block on Chinese student visas since the travel ban was introduced on February 1
     
    And my favourite:

    Wang Xining, an official from the Chinese embassy in Canberra..."We hope their rights and interests will be safeguarded, including proper expansion of visas if the validity is over, and also maybe proper compensation for some of the financial losses during this period."
     
    Funnily enough I didn't see anyone complaining when Australia extended the travel ban to Iran, Italy, Korea and so forth once they were experiencing outbreaks as well.

    Actually the Chinese are the real racists here. Surprise! They quarantined Wuhan so that none could could get out of Wuhan to go elsewhere in China ….. But Wuhan residents could still go to the Wuhan International Airport and fly to other nations to infect them.

    The Chicom leadership used the Wu Flu for asymmetrical warfare. They took a virus that escaped from the Wuhan virus lab and they ran with it. Trump was onto this evil shit early, he got good intel, so at least he banned flights direct from China,

    • Replies: @utu
    Do you have a source? Some foreigners were evacuated form Wuhan on chartered flights, iirc.
    , @AnotherDad


    The Chicom leadership used the Wu Flu for asymmetrical warfare. They took a virus that escaped from the Wuhan virus lab and they ran with it. Trump was onto this evil shit early, he got good intel, so at least he banned flights direct from China.
     
    Trump was dogmeat slow.

    Personal annecdote:
    We had a family trip to middle east--booked for a couple months--launching on Feb 2, (Targeting short break in my daughter's med school rotations.)

    The prior two weeks, i'd been back and forth on going. Will this thing explode while we're out? We will be able to get back? Will we end up in quarantine upon return? Or end up quarantined and stranded in Israel or Egypt or Germany? AnotherMom and I were congratulating our luck that we hadn't gone through Asia--a few options we'd kicked around last fall. But even going through Europe seemed risky. I did the math and at the *personal* level the risk was low. I went ahead and rolled the dice.

    Got to SeaTac and our Lufthansa flight is between an AirChina flight to Beijing and a flight to Korea. Presumably planes that had come in and dumped hordes of people into the US.

    Trump's "China travel ban" apparently didn't even start until that evening. And only applied to foreigners who had been to China. And didn't apply to foreigners who were family members of American citizens! American airlines--United, Delta, American--began shutting down their flights. But there still wasn't any actual "China travel ban".

    People could still travel to China and Americans--like Chinese Americans visiting their families--could go there and come back on through March and into April!

    ~~

    I'm reasonably intelligent but otherwise an ordinary citizen--no special "intel"--but it was crystal clear that China had failed and i was thinking we'll have global pandemic and was worried about my family's personal risk even going through Europe by mid-January.

    China travel should have been shut down by early January--probably earlier--depending on intel. Followed in short order by shutting down all travel and shuttering the US's borders. This would have cut starting cases in the US by several orders of magnitude. At minimum we'd be a few weeks behind where we are in cases/deaths. And maybe enough that the CDC's testing debacle could have been fixed in time accurately test and track cases in the US. Life in the US could have been more relaxed while we watched the rest of world's response. Maybe--unlikely but possible--we could have swatted all the cases with quarantines and been a national oasis of normalcy. (Oh how our elites would have hated that.)

    Trump's response was lame and weak. It only looks good--as with all things Trump--by comparison with Democrats who were doing "racism!", "hug a Chinese person", "got to the Chinese New Year's Parade or else the Nazis have won". (I.e. their usual nasty work, driven by their nasty minoritarian ideology.)

    To be fair to Trump, he's dealing with an entire "elite" imbued with minoritarian-globalist ideology--hostile to protecting the interests of Americans. So Trump gets mediocre to terrible advice and has to figure stuff out on his own and then fight through this evil "elite". Unfortunately for all the bluster ... Trump is just not all that great at figuring stuff out and pushing that rock uphill.
    , @Bragadocious

    Actually the Chinese are the real racists here. Surprise! They quarantined Wuhan so that none could could get out of Wuhan to go elsewhere in China...But Wuhan residents could still go to the Wuhan International Airport and fly to other nations to infect them.

     

    Shockingly, the Wikipedia post on the Wuhan lockdown confirms what you say. I say shockingly because I'd have thought the hasbara Chinese brigade would have scrubbed that from the public record. People like "Realist" dropped the ball.
  52. @anonymous
    Probably the Duck, quacking again.

    Unlikely to be td, there aren’t a bunch of grammatical errors or misspellings in the first paragraph.

  53. @BenKenobi
    Same up here in the Demented Dominion.

    We were hopin' to grab some of them Trudeaubux but my household isn't poor or rich enough for free money.

    "The migrant calls out for gibs as he undermines you."

    https://globalnews.ca/news/6830196/coronavirus-migrant-workers-foreign-students-assistance/

    Same thing here Ben. Lost 35% of my household revenue due to government restrictions that put my wife (temporarily) out of work, but too we are too “well off” for her to receive anything and because she’s only been in her new job after finishing studies for a few months she doesn’t receive any wage supplements that long-term workers receive. Fine by me, not asking for a hand out, but once again it will be the middle class who pays for all this and receives nothing.

    We also had the same thing here with the Left calling for migrant workers to receive government hand outs because they were out of a job. Luckily our PM had the gall to say if migrants are doing it tough they can always go home and get supported by their own government.

    Reminds me of a joke (paraphrasing):

    A Syrian refugee in Canada goes up to a man in the street, and says to him “Thank you for letting me come to your country” to which the man, who is Chinese, replies this isn’t my country.

    So the man goes up to the next guy in the street and says to him “Thank you for letting me come to your country” to which the guy, an Paki, replies this isn’t my country.

    Finally the man goes upto a third fellow in the street and says to him “Thank your letting me come to your country” to which the fellow, a Somalian, replies this isn’t my country.

    The Syrian says to him “Where are all the Candians?!”
    To which the Somalian answers “Probably at work.”

    • Replies: @Redneck farmer
    Is it alright for an American to steal that?
  54. @Je Suis Omar Mateen
    "Schools still being open there is an interesting data point."

    Chillens are immune to kungflu. Everybody knows that.

    Chillens are immune to kungflu. Everybody knows that.

    But perhaps not immune to transmitting it.

    If you look at the Kinsa data, school closings seem to be very effective. The incubation period is about 5 days so it takes that long to see the effect of a change in policy.
    https://www.kinsahealth.co/tale-of-two-cities-atypical-illness-trends-for-santa-clara-and-miami-dade-county/

    • Replies: @Anon
    Australia (the Prime Minister in particular) seems to be operating on blind faith about schools.

    Similar to “masks don’t work”, “children don’t get sick” could come back to haunt the medical establishment, if children turn out to be spreaders.
    , @vhrm
    Huh. for all the times I've looked at Kinsa's site, i never actually entered a location in their map tool until now.

    It appears that when you do (zip or county name) it shows their "illness" over time graph for the county "and its surroundings" (not sure how wide).

    e.g Kings County, ny (aka Brooklyn)

    https://healthweather.us/?regionId=36047&mode=Observed

    (it won't embed because they're dynamic widgets)

    All this time i thought they were hiding the data and only showing select ones in their blog posts. duh.
    , @DanHessinMD
    I am really skeptical of the Kinsa data. Can someone explain what their numbers mean? I have a feeling it doesn't really mean what they think it means.

    Say a million people have Kinsa smart thermometers. Does Kinsa report the percent of self-temperature readings that turn up feverish?

    ---> Because then the Kinsa data would go to zero as healthy people panicked by the media measure themselves 10 times a day.

    If previously people took their temperature when they were sick, now everyone has media induced hypochondria. I think that is what the Kinsa data is actually showing. Am I wrong?

    Does it really make sense that in 10 days, the whole population got extremely healthy or are healthy people just checking their temperature obsessively? I suspect the latter. Can anyone answer this for me?

    , @DanHessinMD
    How accurate is Kinsa's data?

    Some number, i.e. a million, Americans have a Kinsa smart thermometer, right? Does Kinsa just look at the percent of smart thermometer readings that turn out feverish?

    If so then a bunch of panicked healthy people taking their temperature every day would drive fevers down to near zero, right? Normally healthy people wouldn't take their temperature, but during a COVID-19 panic, I can see healthy people taking their temperatures often.

    Does it really make sense that in the span of just ten days, America's health just suddenly became nearly perfect? COVID cases and deaths kept on rising during that span.

    My theory is that healthy Americans, made anxious by the media, took their temperatures often and drove the fever averages way down.

    Can anyone help explain this?

  55. The insert quotation is largely correct – however:
    State borders are all shut – anyone crossing interstate MUST go into 2 weeks quarentine, there are police on the the borders enforcing this.
    Travel within the State is banned unless for work, food, essential services or compassionate reasons.

    All theatres, sport & anything involving more than two people is banned.

    In Victoria schools are shut – they shut 1 week before Easter thus extending the 2 wk break & have only reopened for students not online – teachers (eg. my daughter) worked flat-out during the break to develop online courses, which have just begun to operate. I have 7 grandchildren, 6 @ High school & 1 @ Uni. ALL are working online.

    Olders (my wife & I are mid 70s) stay @ home. We can & do leave for food etc & exercise. Everyone we encounter politely gives a wide berth – conversation @ a distance. Our daughters take our food orders & deliver it to the carport.

    With modern comms & internet there is no problem keeping intouch with family/friends/events.

    COVID is a bloody nuisance & will probably stuff-up our wintering in Q’land. On the other hand death by COVID seems to be decidedly unpleasant & most of the population is keen to avoid it – especially for their aged relatives!!

    • Thanks: res
  56. @Che Blutarsky
    Whoever designed the virus that turned your brain to jello showed the upmost competence.

    Unless, of course, this was satire, in which case your comment still needs some work.

    Hey, don’t diss jello; it has become dung.

  57. In places like Australia where social controls have already reached the desired draconian pitch, it is expedient for the government to play down the case count in order to sell the measures’ popularity (“See, we’re keeping you safe”). In places not sufficiently under the jackboots, it is expedient to play up the case counts (“More must be done”). Nobody dies of anything except coronavirus in New York anymore. This pandemic seems to have miraculously cured every other disease.

    • Replies: @dfordoom

    In places like Australia where social controls have already reached the desired draconian pitch, it is expedient for the government to play down the case count in order to sell the measures’ popularity (“See, we’re keeping you safe”).
     
    I don't think so. In Australia COVID really does seem to be a very minor problem. I don't know anyone who's had it, I don't know of anyone who's had it, nobody I know knows anyone who's had it. It really does seem to be completely under control. It seems likely that the Australian government is telling the truth.

    Our governments aren't perfect but compared to the US they're at least reasonably honest.

    And the controls are not that draconian. Where I live people make a token effort at social distancing but are not in the least obsessive about it. It's not a genuine police state the way modern Britain is.

    In Australia it's mostly younger people who are obsessive about the rules. Boomers are mostly very sceptical about the need for the lockdowns.
  58. @Squid
    If the judges in question were 'county judges' they may preside over a county government rather than a court. For example, our county judge directed the local governmental response to a recent chemical plant explosion--because that's his job, not hearing cases. He runs the county's government. I'm not interested enough to identify the judges you refer to, so I may well be wrong. BTW, how can you bear to read Texas Monthly? The poz almost jumps off the pages. Almost as bad as The New Yawkah. Subscribe to Texas Highways instead. You'll still learn where to find the best barbecued crabs.

    What’s the poz mean?

    • Replies: @Anon
    "The poz" originally meant HIV positive, but it seems to have morphed through meaning "faggotness" to "non homosexual but as disgusting as a faggot" to "social justice loving degenerate transphillic globalist cosmopolitan
    Jewish or Jew-adjacent [add additional epithets] qualities.

    This is my personal decoding of the word from its use in context, "descriptive lexicography," if you will. The Urban Dictionary doesn't define it properly, and anyone who asks what it means is ignored (until now).

  59. @Steve Sailer
    What happens to old people in Australia?

    Have you ever seen Logan’s Run, Steve?

    The difference is that in Australia we send the oldies to Carousel at 70, not 30.

  60. @James Braxton
    Are Austrailians wearing masks everywhere?

    No, very few people wearing masks.

    FWIW, I think it’s a combination of low population density, some smart early border closures and a high level of compliance with the (sometimes OTT) social-distancing rules.

    • Agree: animalogic
  61. @res
    https://www.newscientist.com/article/2240226-australia-seems-to-be-keeping-a-lid-on-covid-19-how-is-it-doing-it/

    Australia’s response to the pandemic has largely centred on shutting its borders, limiting public gatherings and conducting large-scale testing and contact tracing.

    Travelling overseas is banned, foreigners aren’t allowed to enter the country, and Australians who return from other countries are kept in mandatory quarantine at specially designated hotels for two weeks.

    Social gatherings of more than two people are also forbidden and leaving the house is permitted only for essential reasons like buying food and exercising.

    Australia has so far tested more than 310,000 people for covid-19. When someone tests positive, their close contacts are tracked down and ordered to self-isolate for two weeks.

    The main reason for Australia’s success is probably its strict travel restrictions, says Adam Kamradt-Scott at the University of Sydney. About 70 per cent of Australians who have tested positive for covid-19 picked it up while they were overseas, making it important to stem this flow, he says, and being an island nation has made it easier for Australia to rapidly shut its borders.

    Social distancing, testing and contact tracing have added to the success of travel bans, says Kamradt-Scott. Plus, there may be cultural factors that have limited the spread of the virus, like the fact that most Australians choose to live in separate dwellings rather than apartment buildings and older people who require care tend to live in care homes rather than with their families, he says.

    Unlike many other countries, Australia has kept schools open, but they don’t appear to have been drivers of virus spread so far, says Kathryn Snow at the University of Melbourne.

     

    Schools still being open there is an interesting data point.

    Blast – Comment 51 is meant to be here.

  62. @adreadline
    This might not be particularly helpful, but one factor could well be that Australia has Australians, Canada has Canadians (in reference to an earlier post asking what Canada was doing right) and the United States has Americans.

    We are not all Australians in Australia, just as there are a lot of people other than Americans living in the USA.

    See the recent fate of NYC for an example of the virus scything its way through a largely non-American population (especially in Queens).

    • Replies: @adreadline
    It is true that (almost) half of Queens, in particular, is made up of foreign-born people (one could say foreign-born Americans, but to your benefit this will not be assumed). It is also true Queens was specially affected. But most cases are not in Queens or New York, and the disease is spreading far beyond. A significant surge in cases (relative to the local population) is being seen in states like Michigan, North Dakota and Louisiana, which don't have that many non-Americans, unless American Indians and blacks are considered to be non-American, too.

    As for Australia, you know about the demographics of your own country and its large percentage (30%) of foreign-born subjects. Yet the coronavirus was seemingly a fiasco there. So it is possible having many immigrants (without discriminating from where they come from, of course -- not all immigrants are the same) relative to the local population does not correlate that well with the new coronavirus' spread.

  63. Anon[384] • Disclaimer says:

    Australia has a small population and low densities, even the big cities tend to sprawl. There were a few mistakes, like letting an infected cruise ship disembark into central Sydney and not shutting down international travel fast enough, apart from China (when Tom Hanks was infected, the writing should have been on the wall that travellers from everywhere were infected), but the government has learned quickly, and state governments have pushed the federal government along where it hesitated to impose more draconian measures, such as forced quarantine in hotels. Interstate travel is severely curtailed, despite that appearing to be technically unconstitutional.

    Keeping schools open was based on the Singapore experience, but most states have moved to to remote learning for the new term. Across the political spectrum, Singapore was lauded as a model (along with their now defunct no masks stance), no doubt in part because their epidemiological big-shot is Australian, but that cheerleading seems to have gone quiet.

    There have been some appalling takes, mostly from the trollosphere, and a neoliberal who wrote a newspaper column saying that his otherwise healthy 68 year old father would be willing to die because he can’t play tennis or swim due to movement restrictions, but in general, Australians’ innate cautiousness is unlikely to countenance a hasty reopening. Reopening the international (and possibly state) borders would also be politically suicidal without a vaccine, and is unlikely to happen.

    It’s early days, and the contagiousness of the virus makes predictions hard (Tasmania, which cut itself off early, is experiencing a resurgence), but Australia could be heading for a positive outcome.

    • Replies: @Momus
    Australia had 3 times as many infected Americans as Chinese when the borders we're shut to non citizens. We were deliberately very polite to our US allies about this even though at the same time we had stopped Chinese, Italian and Iranian travellers
  64. @Steve Sailer
    California, with 60% more people than Australia, had 100 deaths yesterday vs. 2 in Australia.

    California, with 60% more people than Australia, had 100 deaths yesterday vs. 2 in Australia.

    Some people might say that California had 100 deaths from the rona yesterday. But I am sure it is more accurate to say that they reported 100 deaths.

  65. @res

    Chillens are immune to kungflu. Everybody knows that.
     
    But perhaps not immune to transmitting it.

    If you look at the Kinsa data, school closings seem to be very effective. The incubation period is about 5 days so it takes that long to see the effect of a change in policy.
    https://www.kinsahealth.co/tale-of-two-cities-atypical-illness-trends-for-santa-clara-and-miami-dade-county/

    https://www.kinsahealth.co/wp-content/uploads/2020/03/Santa-Clara-and-Miami-Dade-County-Share-of-Population-with-Flu-Like-Illness-1.png

    Australia (the Prime Minister in particular) seems to be operating on blind faith about schools.

    Similar to “masks don’t work”, “children don’t get sick” could come back to haunt the medical establishment, if children turn out to be spreaders.

  66. Anonymous[951] • Disclaimer says:

    Or is Australia just part of the East Asian Not So Bad Sphere?

    Do you think that China is being honest about the number of infected and the mortality ? It’s absolutely impossible to control a virus that was circulating there for months before any action. The chinese cities are ultra crowded. Of course the virus spread throughout the country, from the big cities to the small villages.

  67. @Squid
    If the judges in question were 'county judges' they may preside over a county government rather than a court. For example, our county judge directed the local governmental response to a recent chemical plant explosion--because that's his job, not hearing cases. He runs the county's government. I'm not interested enough to identify the judges you refer to, so I may well be wrong. BTW, how can you bear to read Texas Monthly? The poz almost jumps off the pages. Almost as bad as The New Yawkah. Subscribe to Texas Highways instead. You'll still learn where to find the best barbecued crabs.

    Oh, no doubt about it, but I like the crime archives.

  68. Anon[322] • Disclaimer says:

    1) Warmer weather

    2) Suburban vs. high density urban living

    Singapore, Korea, Japan, China, HK are all highly urbanized with high density living — lots of high rise apartments, subway as main mode of transportation. The outbreak in Singapore now is in the foreign workers dormitories, which are highly congested high rises.

    It’s the same reason why NYC has it so much worse than Seattle metro area, even though the outbreak started in the latter. And the same reason why Europe has it so much worse – cold weather, everyone living in high rise apartments and traveling via subway.

  69. Anon[127] • Disclaimer says:
    @donut
    This new thing just started last month where Google emails me a weekly thing of every where I've been in the past week . Shit , I know where I've been . Is it a service or a threat ?

    Wanting to hit the supermarkets at a non busy time I checked out the Google Maps feature where they show a bar graph of the shop hours and the number of people in the store, including a live bar for the current hour.

    I had unconsciously assumed that the stores reported the data. But of course that’s not the case … Android users with location enabled are unthinking enabling these graphs.

    Which made me think, are hip iPhone heavy neighborhoods underreported? Neighborhoods with lots of smartphone-free seniors?

    • Replies: @Muggles
    >>Neighborhoods with lots of smartphone-free seniors?<<

    What country do you live in? Every senior I know, including me and my wife, have long had smart phones. That being said, we barely know how to use most of it, but still...
  70. Anonymous[226] • Disclaimer says:
    @Tusk
    We closed the borders 1 week after the first reported case, making any recent arrivals quarantine outside of China for 14 days before they were allowed entry. Doing this simply stopped us from being overwhelmed by infected people creating multiple clusters. Closing the borders quickly and then engaging in social distancing and test+trace was surely the right move.

    Luckily enough was only pushed through because the centre-right party in power has sizeable anti-immigration backing so it was a move they could make. If the left Labor party was in power they would have followed New York's response and yelled RACISM at the potential stigma and continued to let Chinese citizens in.

    Here's some of the responses to Australia's effective, and correct, border closure measures to stop the spread:

    “It’s an overreaction,” Abbey Shi told Al Jazeera by telephone.

    Shi is an international student from Shanghai, and the general secretary of the University of Sydney Student Representative Council. She believes that students are keeping themselves well-informed about the coronavirus.
    5th of Feburary 2020
     

    “I have absolutely no idea what will happen from here,” Ritsu says, describing the travel ban as an “excuse for racism”.
    4th of February 2020
     

    Dozens of people have rallied outside the immigration department’s Sydney offices calling on Canberra to lift the travel ban on foreign nationals travelling from China amid the coronavirus outbreak.
    Some held signs stating “No politics of fear – we stand with the Chinese community” and “Solidarity with Wuhan” while others chanted “No racism, no fear, Chinese people are welcome here”.
     

    Ahmed Ademoglu, who represents 700,000 international tertiary students in Australia, said they felt "exploited" and would discourage future students from enrolling here. International students were aggrieved in particular by the detention of Chinese students in Australian airports and the block on Chinese student visas since the travel ban was introduced on February 1
     
    And my favourite:

    Wang Xining, an official from the Chinese embassy in Canberra..."We hope their rights and interests will be safeguarded, including proper expansion of visas if the validity is over, and also maybe proper compensation for some of the financial losses during this period."
     
    Funnily enough I didn't see anyone complaining when Australia extended the travel ban to Iran, Italy, Korea and so forth once they were experiencing outbreaks as well.

    To be clear, borders weren’t closed a week after the first case, except for China. For some reason, the idea that the virus had spread outside of China blindsided governments around the world when they imposed travel restrictions. Italy was given a free pass for weeks, as was the United States, despite obvious evidence of widespread infection in those places. Self-quarantine for overseas arrivals was ignored by a significant proportion of travellers, which is why forced quarantine was introduced.

    Given how hard infection control is, even for professionals, ideally, sick people should have been separated from their families, Wuhan style, and housed in dorms to prevent household transmission. No western country has had the guts to do this.

    • Agree: Blinky Bill
  71. @Marty
    A bit OT, but I just got my copy of Texas Monthly, and the article on Covid in Texas says that lockdowns there were ordered not by the Governor or county or city officials, but by judges, first in Dallas and then Houston. I always thought judges could only act on a “case or controversy” involving persons who had submitted to jurisdiction, but I guess in Texas things work differently.

    The “county judge” is the executive officer of a Texas county. Texas counties are run by a “commissioner’s court” consisting of 4 “precinct commissioners” chaired by the county judge.

    • Replies: @ben tillman
    Right. You deal with the Commissioner's Court for stuff like platting in the unincorporated or non-ETJ areas of the county.
  72. @AnotherDad
    Steve, i think res has given you the rest of your answer.

    Sure the weather is nice. They're still in early fall--though even their peak winter in July isn't that terrible, at least Sydney and Melbourne.

    But they've really gone after this thing whole-hog:

    -- The border is closed. Returnees quarantined.

    -- Testing like cracy and contact tracing/testing/quarantining.

    -- Full on police statey social distancing.

    Social gatherings of more than two people are also forbidden and leaving the house is permitted only for essential reasons like buying food and exercising.
     
    Considering US level of distancing seems to have halted--or at least steadied--the epidemic, not a surprise this Australian level has worked.

    Nice the Australian authorities allow "social gatherings" of two. Could have been worse!

    Couldn't do that in the US. it would be blatant triamoryphobia.

    Returnees quarantined.

    “Returnees”? Who returned them?

    And why?

    • LOL: ben tillman
  73. @Steve Sailer
    Sydney and Melbourne metro areas are each about 5 million, about 15% bigger than Detroit metro.

    Ahh but Detroit proper is half a million people and Sydney proper is a quarter million. Metro Detroit is huge and very spread out, land area wise.

    • Replies: @Photondancer
    What are you counting as Sydney proper? It’s not like London where there is an actual well defined City and the rest is outer.
    , @dcthrowback
    some slight demographic differences tho
  74. @Polynikes
    I’d guess weather. If you took all our states below the Mason dixon line, the results would look similarly good. That includes the hard hit New Orleans and Arkansas, where they’ve taken almost no measures at all.

    Texas, which has a similar population and GDP compared to the country of Australia, has had a grand total of 393 coronavirus deaths as of today. https://coronavirusintexas.org/

    • Replies: @ben tillman

    Texas, which has a similar population and GDP compared to the country of Australia, has had a grand total of 393 coronavirus deaths as of today. https://coronavirusintexas.org/
     
    We're still piecing it together, but it seems that my children's school auction may have been a superspreader event. Lots of infections among attendees, but no deaths despite the fact it hasn't been a very warm spring in North Texas.
  75. @donut
    Take it or leave it

    https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=EutAUk96EB8&list=PLgicMldRRO4FJOAeadI0TM-IukgwC0k_U&index=6

    “First there was a funeral …” Maggie Brown , what a beautiful voice to express that . She’s got no real following .

  76. @donut
    Take it or leave it

    https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=EutAUk96EB8&list=PLgicMldRRO4FJOAeadI0TM-IukgwC0k_U&index=6

    Maggie Brown “first there was a funeral …” a beautiful voice and line . She has no following “cept me and my friend .

  77. Anonymous[226] • Disclaimer says:
    @James Braxton
    Are Austrailians wearing masks everywhere?

    No, mask wearing is seen as an Asian trait in Australia, and is rare for non-Asians. A few high-IQ types from the rest of the population may be starting to wear masks, but the vast majority are pliant and follow government guidance, which is pretty much still “masks don’t work”. Social distancing is also easier in Australia than other places.

    More outbreaks or a return to wider public transport usage may change this.

    • Replies: @anon

    mask wearing is seen as an Asian trait in Australia
     
    Well old chap, you can take your 'asian mask wearing' back to your home countries.
    We have a few million Aussie citizens unemployed, and you're starting to grind our gears.
  78. @adreadline

    The US also has far more old people than Australia, particularly old people under managed care.
     
    You mean as a proportion of the population?

    https://images.populationpyramid.net/capture/?selector=%23pyramid-share-container&url=https%3A%2F%2Fwww.populationpyramid.net/australia/2019/%3Fshare%3Dtrue

    https://images.populationpyramid.net/capture/?selector=%23pyramid-share-container&url=https%3A%2F%2Fwww.populationpyramid.net/united-states-of-america/2019/%3Fshare%3Dtrue

    The United States has around 13 times the population of Australia. As of today, it was reported the United States had 30,859 deaths in total due to the new coronavirus, while Australia had 63. 30,859/63 = 489, which is sort of larger than 13.

    Naw, I’m talking about absolute numbers. This thing seems to thrive when lots of people are crammed together.

    Australia doesn’t have as many people, and the people they do have—including the old ones—aren’t pressed in as tight against each other as ours are in NYC.

    But this is just a hunch. I’m sure the various other things they did were more of a factor. But still… How does one enact “social distancing” in a nursing home with 200+ beds and a small staff of low-paid, probably disgruntled carers?

  79. @swami_cuckenstein
    Once the Chinese realized the Americans poisoned Wuhan with the bioweapon, they quickly inoculated their own people with a less deadly variant, while the more deadly type traveled to Europe (maybe Iran got hit with the deadly strain as well and that is what made it to Italy), while the inoculation type went to Australia, Japan, etc.

    The Anglo-Zionists are mad enough at China to unleash WMD on Wuhan, if the Chinese dealt with it swiftly while the blow-back hit Europe and USA, most of the military command going very far up the ladder would be administered the firing squad for great justice.

    Or perhaps the Anglo-Zionists released the weapon in Iran (just joking, of course), and Chinese engineers brought it home with them. Italy trades with China and Iran, and there are a lot of Chinese in Italy.

    https://www.tehrantimes.com/news/443529/Italians-persistently-willing-to-preserve-trade-with-Iran-under

  80. @res

    Chillens are immune to kungflu. Everybody knows that.
     
    But perhaps not immune to transmitting it.

    If you look at the Kinsa data, school closings seem to be very effective. The incubation period is about 5 days so it takes that long to see the effect of a change in policy.
    https://www.kinsahealth.co/tale-of-two-cities-atypical-illness-trends-for-santa-clara-and-miami-dade-county/

    https://www.kinsahealth.co/wp-content/uploads/2020/03/Santa-Clara-and-Miami-Dade-County-Share-of-Population-with-Flu-Like-Illness-1.png

    Huh. for all the times I’ve looked at Kinsa’s site, i never actually entered a location in their map tool until now.

    It appears that when you do (zip or county name) it shows their “illness” over time graph for the county “and its surroundings” (not sure how wide).

    e.g Kings County, ny (aka Brooklyn)

    https://healthweather.us/?regionId=36047&mode=Observed

    (it won’t embed because they’re dynamic widgets)

    All this time i thought they were hiding the data and only showing select ones in their blog posts. duh.

    • Replies: @vhrm
    NYC "stay-at-home" order went into effect Mar 20th 2020 8pm. So we'll call it 21st.
    That's 7 days after the peak in that illness graph. same for Queens County

    So just like in Florida and in the Bay Area, CA flu like illnesses were already dropping significantly by the time it went into effect. And in this graph it can be seen that there slope was already more negative than the "expected" line by that time.

    And this is without accounting for incubation periods, ~2 avg for fly according to the web and 5 for Covid-19, but who really knows.

    My claim is therefore again that the curve was already bent well before the shelter-in-place/shutdown order and this supports that they were unnecessary.

    , @res

    Huh. for all the times I’ve looked at Kinsa’s site, i never actually entered a location in their map tool until now.
     
    It took me a while to figure that out as well.

    I wish they allowed aggregating by state.
  81. @Tusk
    Same thing here Ben. Lost 35% of my household revenue due to government restrictions that put my wife (temporarily) out of work, but too we are too "well off" for her to receive anything and because she's only been in her new job after finishing studies for a few months she doesn't receive any wage supplements that long-term workers receive. Fine by me, not asking for a hand out, but once again it will be the middle class who pays for all this and receives nothing.

    We also had the same thing here with the Left calling for migrant workers to receive government hand outs because they were out of a job. Luckily our PM had the gall to say if migrants are doing it tough they can always go home and get supported by their own government.

    Reminds me of a joke (paraphrasing):

    A Syrian refugee in Canada goes up to a man in the street, and says to him "Thank you for letting me come to your country" to which the man, who is Chinese, replies this isn't my country.

    So the man goes up to the next guy in the street and says to him "Thank you for letting me come to your country" to which the guy, an Paki, replies this isn't my country.

    Finally the man goes upto a third fellow in the street and says to him "Thank your letting me come to your country" to which the fellow, a Somalian, replies this isn't my country.

    The Syrian says to him "Where are all the Candians?!"
    To which the Somalian answers "Probably at work."
     

    Is it alright for an American to steal that?

    • Replies: @Tusk
    It's not my joke, I saw it on a random video a while ago, so feel free to share and edit it to change Canadian to American or whatever suits you. Personally I find it extremely funny so the more people who hear it the better.
  82. @Anonymous
    No, mask wearing is seen as an Asian trait in Australia, and is rare for non-Asians. A few high-IQ types from the rest of the population may be starting to wear masks, but the vast majority are pliant and follow government guidance, which is pretty much still “masks don’t work”. Social distancing is also easier in Australia than other places.

    More outbreaks or a return to wider public transport usage may change this.

    mask wearing is seen as an Asian trait in Australia

    Well old chap, you can take your ‘asian mask wearing’ back to your home countries.
    We have a few million Aussie citizens unemployed, and you’re starting to grind our gears.

    • Replies: @Anonymous
    Different and very white Anon here, news flash one can wear a mask and go about one's daily business. In fact doing so may allow more return to normality than otherwise.
    , @Blinky Bill
    What kind of Bogan logic is that ! Wear a face mask go back to Asia ? Did Corona give you brain damage ?
    , @adreadline
    End the lockdowns, god damn it! There are dozens of millions of Ozzies unemployed because of your bloody masks! Soon, no one will have any money to slip a single shrimp on the barbie, or even to slip, slop, slap!
  83. Anonymous[190] • Disclaimer says:
    @Steve Sailer
    What happens to old people in Australia?

    Soylent Green Baby, Soylent Green.

    Seriously AU has plenty of elderly. I cannot discern a difference between age pyramids US and AU.

    Australia has low population density, but is pretty urban/suburban per capita.

    Testing is not yet at the level of everyone with symptoms in most states. Detected cases have dropped. Hard to say what actuals are doing. Tests/capita are quite high but not at Germany or Spain levels.

    People encouraged to school from home. Maybe 5 kids a class now, same kids, from HCW or other parents who can’t survive apparently. So while no official closure it’s almost the same thing.

    Public gatherings limited to 2 people.

    Travel restrictions (14 day quarantines via self isolation) between several states.

    Incoming travel ban since March 20. China ban earlier than that.

    Encouragement to stay at home for all but essential travel.

    Encouragement to social distance (1.5m apart) and use good hand hygeine. Minimum area per person applies. 4m^2 from memory.

    Indications are that level of flu symptoms, and flu most likely, are low.

    Not a lot of mask usage of any kind seen. Maybe 1/20 wearing. Some non-Asians.

    Few temperature checks in public.

    There is more AU could be doing that is for sure. We could learn from SK and Taiwan that is for sure.

  84. Anonymous[190] • Disclaimer says:
    @anon

    mask wearing is seen as an Asian trait in Australia
     
    Well old chap, you can take your 'asian mask wearing' back to your home countries.
    We have a few million Aussie citizens unemployed, and you're starting to grind our gears.

    Different and very white Anon here, news flash one can wear a mask and go about one’s daily business. In fact doing so may allow more return to normality than otherwise.

  85. @Anon
    Italy had Type C, via Singapore and Hong Kong. The U.S. and Australia have Type A, which was the second biggest strain in China. Spain has Type A, like the US, but most of Europe has Type B. This is from a map that I can only find in Google Images, so I can't link to it. Here's some text information about the three main strains:

    http://www.financetwitter.com/2020/04/three-coronavirus-variants-discovered-surprisingly-type-a-found-in-americans-wuhans-type-b-and-type-c-in-europe.html

    The Italian strain is the strain in the US and Spain, the Italian strain has taken over as it is more aggressive, and likely more deadly, than the original Wuhan strain.

  86. @anon

    mask wearing is seen as an Asian trait in Australia
     
    Well old chap, you can take your 'asian mask wearing' back to your home countries.
    We have a few million Aussie citizens unemployed, and you're starting to grind our gears.

    What kind of Bogan logic is that ! Wear a face mask go back to Asia ? Did Corona give you brain damage ?

    • Replies: @anon

    What kind of Bogan logic is that ! Wear a face mask go back to Asia ?
     
    The virus came from china. We in Oz were fine before they infected us - we shouldn't have to wear masks.
    Is this hard for you to understand? Australia isn't asia you retarded bell-end.
    Tell your chinese wife's son to stop posting on your behalf .
  87. @Unladen Swallow
    Advantages of a parliamentary system, much harder for the bureaucracy and courts to undermine the Prime Minister's directive. Judges have been flouting Trump's directives from the beginning, to say nothing of the bureaucracy. James Q. Wilson documented this a while ago in his book "Bureaucracy"

    Advantages of a parliamentary system, much harder for the bureaucracy and courts to undermine the Prime Minister’s directive.

    Yes, having a rational workable political system certainly helps. In the US you have a political system that makes your country ungovernable.

    In Australia we also have much much less corruption. So Australian politics attracts a much better class of person compared to US politics.

    Australians are much less religious than Americans and less prone to hysteria.

    Australia also has a rational fully functioning welfare state so we don’t have a hostile underclass to the same extent as the US. We don’t have a huge homeless problem. And we do make an effort o look after old people.

    We have a rational functioning universal health system that is not riddled with corruption and profiteering.

    We also don’t shoot each other as often. Even our cops are not trigger-happy thugs.

    Imagine a country in which government basically works and the grown-ups are in charge and that’s Australia. It’s not perfect but mostly it works.

    • Agree: Jonathan Mason
    • Replies: @Stebbing Heuer
    Yep.

    As I said in a comment here the other day: the US is a third world country. Literally Upper Volta with rockets.
    , @SunBakedSuburb
    "In the US you have a political system that makes your country ungovernable."

    Quite true. Ungovernable and susceptible to the predations of chaos-causing billionaires. I am encouraged by the turn towards federalism by certain states. This is a reaction to the incompetent DC response to the Fu Manchu Virus (FMV). I would love to see California, Oregon, and Washington form a political union, divorced from the corrupt DC-NYC nexus. Although, the whiny weenies in Oregon will moan even louder about the Golden State jerks traipsing through their state. Oregon is a place abundant with natural beauty. But its human element is mostly whiny weenies.
    , @Muggles
    >>Imagine a country in which government basically works and the grown-ups are in charge and that’s Australia. It’s not perfect but mostly it works.<<

    Yes, "grown ups" who disarm their citizens because, you know, otherwise they'll act like children. Or Americans.

    Now of course the Triads and bikie gangs (that's motorcycle clubs for you Yanks) are not so unarmed, but we all have our wishful thinking caps.

    Yes, Oz is a great place, I'd like to visit before I die.

    On the other hand, if the Nipponese or Chinese decide to come visit in force, and stay (again, in one case) Aussies will soon be hunting 'roos and wombats for food. Or working in the slave labor camps. Mother England can't/won't help them. It will be left up to the barbarian Americanos again. *Sigh*

    Or we could just send Mel Gibson back...
    , @Mobi

    Yes, having a rational workable political system certainly helps. In the US you have a political system that makes your country ungovernable.
     

    Australia: 'Coup capital of the democratic world'

    With five prime ministers in as many years [2015], Canberra has solidified its reputation as the coup capital of the democratic world.

    ...It is now over a decade since an Australian prime minister managed to serve out his or her first term.

    ...Covering Australian politics feels more like conducting a triage of the wounded and slain. The bloodletting has become so brutal that party rooms have come to resemble abattoirs.

    Were a movie to be made of Australian politics over the past decade it would have to be X-rated, and, as I have said before, be directed by Quentin Tarantino...
     
    https://www.bbc.com/news/world-australia-34249214


    Sort of conforms to my observation visiting relatives a few years back. Couldn't watch the news after a while - the level of petty, partisan bickering was off the charts. So much so, I recall a discussion with my hosts as to why Australia stood out so much this way (pre-Trump era, mind you)

    Reporter: 'Lovely day today, isn't it?'

    Pol: 'Well, Wally, it might seem that way, were it not for the blinding incompetence of this government/opposition....blah blah blah...'

    Absolutely relentless, it was. Has everyone put it aside and come together these days?
    , @XYZ (no Mr.)
    Yet people still immigrate to America in large numbers. (That's a sad fact, not a credit to America. It merely means the cultures the immigrants come from are so crappy and dysfunctional even America looks tempting.)

    I personally wish Australia, New Zealand, Canada, the United Kingdom, and Ireland would absorb all future immigration bound for the US. It would do both the potential future immigrants, and us Americans, a lot of good.

    Let us Americans enjoy a quiet decay among (or amongst?) ourselves. I can better tolerate dysfunction within my own kind, because I know their ways.
    , @AnotherDad


    ...
    Australia also has a rational fully functioning welfare state so we don’t have a hostile underclass to the same extent as the US. We don’t have a huge homeless problem. And we do make an effort o look after old people.

    We have a rational functioning universal health system that is not riddled with corruption and profiteering.

    We also don’t shoot each other as often. Even our cops are not trigger-happy thugs.

    Imagine a country in which government basically works and the grown-ups are in charge and that’s Australia. It’s not perfect but mostly it works.
     
    Blah, blah, blah, blah, blah, ...

    Dude, you don't have a "legacy of slavery" so of course a bunch of stuff works better.

    In the 2016 Australian census, the most commonly nominated ancestries were:
    English (36.1%)
    Australian (33.5%)
    Irish (11.0%)
    Scottish (9.3%)
    Chinese (5.6%)
    Italian (4.6%)
    German (4.5%)
    Indian (2.8%)
    Indigenous (2.8%)
    Greek (1.8%)
    Dutch (1.6%)
    Filipino (1.4%)
    Vietnamese (1.4%)
    Lebanese (1%)
     
    And yet, you've fully imbibed the minoritarian ideology our "American" "elites" push out and you are hard at work pissing your fantastic legacy away with immigration.
  88. Anonymous[348] • Disclaimer says:

    Im the person you responded to. I’m not Asian, but I’ve been following the mask debacle closely, and I do wear one when I go out.

    I feel weird because mask-wearing remains associated with the Chinese in Australia. Still, I value my life more than adhering to some misguided bravado that has evaporated in much if the world.

  89. @Redneck farmer
    Is it alright for an American to steal that?

    It’s not my joke, I saw it on a random video a while ago, so feel free to share and edit it to change Canadian to American or whatever suits you. Personally I find it extremely funny so the more people who hear it the better.

    • Thanks: Redneck farmer
  90. @Polynikes
    I’d guess weather. If you took all our states below the Mason dixon line, the results would look similarly good. That includes the hard hit New Orleans and Arkansas, where they’ve taken almost no measures at all.

    I’d guess blood-levels of vitamin D. The active form is produced by the action of sunlight on the skin and is critical to the immune system; you can also get it from certain foods. Various studies have shown that healthy levels (40 ng/ml and above) mitigate or even prevent respiratory infections.

    If you have a lot of melanin in your skin, live in relatively high latitudes (e.g. the UK, New York, Chicago) and do not supplement with at least 2000 IU of vitamin D daily, you are a sitting duck for the coronavirus — as the numbers are showing. Apparently over 80% of American blacks are vitamin D deficient.

    Medical advice to avoid the sun for fear of skin-cancer complicates the picture, of course, and there is widespread deficiency in the whole population. But I’d say that regular barbies on Bondi Beach will do no harm whatever to your chances of surviving the bug.

    • Agree: Old and Grumpy
    • Replies: @RAZ
    Isn't Scandinavia doing reasonably well with Covid? High latitude and even light skin people would not have been generating Vit D from sunlight the last few months. Maybe they are on a daily Vit D regimen?
    , @Polynikes
    I’m no doctor, so your theory sounds as good as anything I have. Just seems to me like this thing has mostly not been a problem in warmer areas. Similar to regular flu patterns. But, I am just guessing.
    , @dcthrowback
    beaches and parks are open in Australia, too
    , @Polynikes
    One quick follow-up. If it is Vitamin D levels from the sun, would that maybe explain why extensive homeless population (surely rife with co-morbidities themselves) in California, and elsewhere, has not been dropping like flies?

    I've been an anti-doomer on this thing, but even I would've figured that the homeless were going to be in big trouble. Yet, it does not seem like it has affected them anymore than anyone else.
  91. @vhrm
    Huh. for all the times I've looked at Kinsa's site, i never actually entered a location in their map tool until now.

    It appears that when you do (zip or county name) it shows their "illness" over time graph for the county "and its surroundings" (not sure how wide).

    e.g Kings County, ny (aka Brooklyn)

    https://healthweather.us/?regionId=36047&mode=Observed

    (it won't embed because they're dynamic widgets)

    All this time i thought they were hiding the data and only showing select ones in their blog posts. duh.

    NYC “stay-at-home” order went into effect Mar 20th 2020 8pm. So we’ll call it 21st.
    That’s 7 days after the peak in that illness graph. same for Queens County

    So just like in Florida and in the Bay Area, CA flu like illnesses were already dropping significantly by the time it went into effect. And in this graph it can be seen that there slope was already more negative than the “expected” line by that time.

    And this is without accounting for incubation periods, ~2 avg for fly according to the web and 5 for Covid-19, but who really knows.

    My claim is therefore again that the curve was already bent well before the shelter-in-place/shutdown order and this supports that they were unnecessary.

    • Agree: Hail, Polynikes, TomSchmidt
    • Replies: @Hail

    the curve was already bent well before the shelter-in-place/shutdown order and this supports that they were unnecessary.
     
    This is also what Dr Knut Wittkowski demonstrated in his April 1 paper already, on which he was interviewed April 2-3.

    The video of his interview, which can be described as "hardline anti-CoronaPanic," has been suppressed by Google (de-listed, not findable by search), Facebook (flagged and reportedly people have been blocked from posting it), and Youtube itself (de-listed).

    https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=lGC5sGdz4kg

    Dr. Wittkowski is one of the many, many experts in the field* who, when people bother to ask them, turn out to be anti-CoronaPanic, anti-Shutdown.

    _______
    .

    (Wittkowski has thirty years of internationally recognized expertise in epidemiology; for almost twenty years he was the Head of Biostatistics, Epidemiology, and Research Design, Center for Clinical & Translational Science at Rockefeller University in New York; PhD, Computer Science, Univ. of Stuttgart, 1985; PhD, Medical Biometry, Univ. of Tübingen, 1993.)

    , @res
    I'm out of Agrees, so I agree.

    I've talked about that a fair bit if you search my comments for Kinsa. The 5 day estimate seems to hold up pretty well. This comment and the one 2 replies upthread from it are probably the most informative.

    https://www.unz.com/anepigone/conflusion/#comment-3837508
  92. @Intelligent Dasein
    In places like Australia where social controls have already reached the desired draconian pitch, it is expedient for the government to play down the case count in order to sell the measures' popularity ("See, we're keeping you safe"). In places not sufficiently under the jackboots, it is expedient to play up the case counts ("More must be done"). Nobody dies of anything except coronavirus in New York anymore. This pandemic seems to have miraculously cured every other disease.

    In places like Australia where social controls have already reached the desired draconian pitch, it is expedient for the government to play down the case count in order to sell the measures’ popularity (“See, we’re keeping you safe”).

    I don’t think so. In Australia COVID really does seem to be a very minor problem. I don’t know anyone who’s had it, I don’t know of anyone who’s had it, nobody I know knows anyone who’s had it. It really does seem to be completely under control. It seems likely that the Australian government is telling the truth.

    Our governments aren’t perfect but compared to the US they’re at least reasonably honest.

    And the controls are not that draconian. Where I live people make a token effort at social distancing but are not in the least obsessive about it. It’s not a genuine police state the way modern Britain is.

    In Australia it’s mostly younger people who are obsessive about the rules. Boomers are mostly very sceptical about the need for the lockdowns.

    • Replies: @Jonathan Mason
    And the controls are not that draconian. Where I live people make a token effort at social distancing but are not in the least obsessive about it. It’s not a genuine police state the way modern Britain is.

    Interesting. You see stories about over officious enforcement coming out of Britain all the time, but here in Florida we are under "lockdown" but I have never seen or heard of any police enforcement actions other than clearing public beaches which are now closed to the public.

    The enforcement works much more at an institutional and governmental level. Schools closed, non essential businesses closed, however that is interpreted very loosely. In my neighborhood the Ace Hardware and the animal feed store are open, so is a tool and equipment rental place, a car repair place, and the dollar store. All gas stations with convenience stores are open. However the courthouse and local government offices are closed, parks are closed and of course restaurants are closed except for takeouts.

    So the overall effect is that people are mostly at home, there is not much traffic, and most people have no particular place to go other than to work, the supermarket, or the gas station.
    , @Known Fact
    Despite the Aussies' tough approach, horse racing there continues full steam -- no fans allowed, but you still need grooms, jockeys, trainers, gate crew and outriders, media etc. Some tracks have most people wearing masks, others not much at all. The jockeys' room would seem to be a potential danger point, wonder how they're handling that.

    In contrast US racing is shut down -- even in Kentucky -- except for Florida, Arkansas and two small rural tracks. Just about everyone (except the jockeys and horses of course) is now wearing masks at these tracks. New Zealand shut it down but Hong Kong, Japan and Singapore are running some cards.

    I know its heading toward fall now Down Under, but have the parks and beaches been open or tightly controlled? E.g. the beaches along the Gold Coast?

  93. The Johns Hopkins map has an incident rate tab. The entire southern hemisphere has low rates. It is their summer, so maybe winter will change things.

    https://gisanddata.maps.arcgis.com/apps/opsdashboard/index.html#/bda7594740fd40299423467b48e9ecf6

    Australia is obese.
    https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Obesity_in_Australia

    • Agree: Dutch Boy
  94. The highest number of cases are in the more built up cities on the East coast. In the state of South Australia (1.7m population, overwhelmingly in sprawling suburbs), there have been virtually no unexplained cases. The weather has been quite warm until very recently too. I agree with the commenters above as to how well things are run. We have just the right amount of social safety net. In South australia the state government owns its own pathology lab, which has done all the tests free.

    https://mobile.twitter.com/SAHealth/status/1251030992489295879

  95. Anonymous[190] • Disclaimer says:

    One thing Australia has going for it is that it is possibly the most draconian health and safety nanny state in the world. It is ok for people to be priced out of having children and our birthright given to foreign hordes but no one here must die especially on a workplace before their time.

    Anyone who is a Person Controlling a Business or Undertaking (PCBU) especially company directors face fines or jail time if it is deemed a worker dies or is seriously injured in a worksite without sufficient safety management in place e.g. risk assessments, safety management systems etc.

    The downside of this is that the layers of bureaucracy can get in the way. I always said that in a war or depression we would be screwed and have to get rid of that red tape but it might actually help us in this instance.

    Of course we have no autarkic capacity to produce masks, which is hurting us now. Stupid myopic democracy.

  96. Anonymous[186] • Disclaimer says:
    @Kyle
    What is Australia doing right? It’s just the flu bro. It’s a small country with no massive population centers like New York, LA, or Detroit. Obviously covid—19 is going to hit some people hard, especially those with underlying conditions. It’s a Coronavirus that nobody is immune too. But the actual infirmary magnitude of the virus is no worse than the flu. That’s not to say that the flu is no big deal. Anybody who’s had the flu knows that it’s horrible and it makes you feel like death. But we have some level of herd immunity towards the flu, with the vaccines and from people who have developed immunities against it. So there aren’t millions of people who die from it each year.
  97. Ed says:
    @PiltdownMan
    Singapore did the same things, beginning at an earlier point in time. But despite being held up as a model for the world in February and March for contact tracing and isolation, and seemingly getting on top of the problem, the number of new cases in Singapore has been spiraling upwards in April.

    https://www.latimes.com/world-nation/story/2020-04-14/coronavirus-surges-migrant-workers-in-singapore

    https://en.wikipedia.org/api/rest_v1/page/graph/png/2020_coronavirus_pandemic_in_Singapore/0/eafd044852ab4c0b619ff4db5ac0fc2801e97255.png

    Singapore relies heavily on migrants and the new cases appear to be spreading mostly at migrant dorms.
    as per the linked article.

    COVID-19 cases in Singapore have tripled since the start of the month to more than 3,200, with most of the new infections found in laborers from India, Bangladesh and other countries who live in crowded, airless dormitories on the edges of the modern, manicured city-state they’ve helped build.

  98. Anon[128] • Disclaimer says:

    Venturing some guesses: UV sunlight might be harder on the virus itself when coughed out or exhaled. The virus probably has a shorter lifespan on surfaces outside in the sun. The warmer weather also might slow some of the viruses’ life-processes. None of that could be true, or all if it could be. This is not a guess however:

    Carjackings in Memphis have doubled. A mask and gloves (no prints) being allowed, and less witnesses on the street, have unleashed the underground economy’s “animal spirits” in a bad way.

    • Replies: @Richard A.
    Maybe we should have indoor UV lighting in the stores.
  99. @Tusk
    We closed the borders 1 week after the first reported case, making any recent arrivals quarantine outside of China for 14 days before they were allowed entry. Doing this simply stopped us from being overwhelmed by infected people creating multiple clusters. Closing the borders quickly and then engaging in social distancing and test+trace was surely the right move.

    Luckily enough was only pushed through because the centre-right party in power has sizeable anti-immigration backing so it was a move they could make. If the left Labor party was in power they would have followed New York's response and yelled RACISM at the potential stigma and continued to let Chinese citizens in.

    Here's some of the responses to Australia's effective, and correct, border closure measures to stop the spread:

    “It’s an overreaction,” Abbey Shi told Al Jazeera by telephone.

    Shi is an international student from Shanghai, and the general secretary of the University of Sydney Student Representative Council. She believes that students are keeping themselves well-informed about the coronavirus.
    5th of Feburary 2020
     

    “I have absolutely no idea what will happen from here,” Ritsu says, describing the travel ban as an “excuse for racism”.
    4th of February 2020
     

    Dozens of people have rallied outside the immigration department’s Sydney offices calling on Canberra to lift the travel ban on foreign nationals travelling from China amid the coronavirus outbreak.
    Some held signs stating “No politics of fear – we stand with the Chinese community” and “Solidarity with Wuhan” while others chanted “No racism, no fear, Chinese people are welcome here”.
     

    Ahmed Ademoglu, who represents 700,000 international tertiary students in Australia, said they felt "exploited" and would discourage future students from enrolling here. International students were aggrieved in particular by the detention of Chinese students in Australian airports and the block on Chinese student visas since the travel ban was introduced on February 1
     
    And my favourite:

    Wang Xining, an official from the Chinese embassy in Canberra..."We hope their rights and interests will be safeguarded, including proper expansion of visas if the validity is over, and also maybe proper compensation for some of the financial losses during this period."
     
    Funnily enough I didn't see anyone complaining when Australia extended the travel ban to Iran, Italy, Korea and so forth once they were experiencing outbreaks as well.

    The Chinese want compensation for the international consequences of the Wuhan virus? There’s no way that plan can backfire.

    • Replies: @Tusk
    Unfortunately the Australian government bends over backwards to these people, not counting all the political corruption from the China lobby who donated bags full of illegal money to politicians to get their way.

    The simple fact that Chinese ambassadors can attempt to extort Australia, and Australians, for closing their borders to stop infectious diseases tells you the damage is done. Thank you Leftism for letting the Chinese get away with crying racism at every opportunity.
  100. @anon

    mask wearing is seen as an Asian trait in Australia
     
    Well old chap, you can take your 'asian mask wearing' back to your home countries.
    We have a few million Aussie citizens unemployed, and you're starting to grind our gears.

    End the lockdowns, god damn it! There are dozens of millions of Ozzies unemployed because of your bloody masks! Soon, no one will have any money to slip a single shrimp on the barbie, or even to slip, slop, slap!

    • Replies: @Anon

    End the lockdowns, god damn it!
     
    I had this years work lined up, and now all gone. No income.
    You're a funny guy, so go fuck yourself with a burnt stick.
  101. @swami_cuckenstein
    Once the Chinese realized the Americans poisoned Wuhan with the bioweapon, they quickly inoculated their own people with a less deadly variant, while the more deadly type traveled to Europe (maybe Iran got hit with the deadly strain as well and that is what made it to Italy), while the inoculation type went to Australia, Japan, etc.

    The Anglo-Zionists are mad enough at China to unleash WMD on Wuhan, if the Chinese dealt with it swiftly while the blow-back hit Europe and USA, most of the military command going very far up the ladder would be administered the firing squad for great justice.

    You are exactly right and you can tell you are by the confused bewilderment of the trolls on your tail.

    • Replies: @36 ulster
    Haw...ha-Haw-ha.
  102. Australia declared a COVID pandemic a full 2 weeks were the WHO and had the planning for a mitigation ramp well in hand.
    Australia’s government also negotiated with the private hospitals to co-opt their resources for the duration, and pay them for the loss of their usual elective surgery income. This effectively more than doubled capacity.

  103. @Anon
    Australia has a small population and low densities, even the big cities tend to sprawl. There were a few mistakes, like letting an infected cruise ship disembark into central Sydney and not shutting down international travel fast enough, apart from China (when Tom Hanks was infected, the writing should have been on the wall that travellers from everywhere were infected), but the government has learned quickly, and state governments have pushed the federal government along where it hesitated to impose more draconian measures, such as forced quarantine in hotels. Interstate travel is severely curtailed, despite that appearing to be technically unconstitutional.

    Keeping schools open was based on the Singapore experience, but most states have moved to to remote learning for the new term. Across the political spectrum, Singapore was lauded as a model (along with their now defunct no masks stance), no doubt in part because their epidemiological big-shot is Australian, but that cheerleading seems to have gone quiet.

    There have been some appalling takes, mostly from the trollosphere, and a neoliberal who wrote a newspaper column saying that his otherwise healthy 68 year old father would be willing to die because he can’t play tennis or swim due to movement restrictions, but in general, Australians’ innate cautiousness is unlikely to countenance a hasty reopening. Reopening the international (and possibly state) borders would also be politically suicidal without a vaccine, and is unlikely to happen.

    It’s early days, and the contagiousness of the virus makes predictions hard (Tasmania, which cut itself off early, is experiencing a resurgence), but Australia could be heading for a positive outcome.

    Australia had 3 times as many infected Americans as Chinese when the borders we’re shut to non citizens. We were deliberately very polite to our US allies about this even though at the same time we had stopped Chinese, Italian and Iranian travellers

    • Agree: sb
  104. I am pretty sure that the exact measures do not matter as much as at what stage they were taken.

    On the other hand, we all though Singapore was doing the best when all of a sudden cases exploded.

  105. @Tusk
    We closed the borders 1 week after the first reported case, making any recent arrivals quarantine outside of China for 14 days before they were allowed entry. Doing this simply stopped us from being overwhelmed by infected people creating multiple clusters. Closing the borders quickly and then engaging in social distancing and test+trace was surely the right move.

    Luckily enough was only pushed through because the centre-right party in power has sizeable anti-immigration backing so it was a move they could make. If the left Labor party was in power they would have followed New York's response and yelled RACISM at the potential stigma and continued to let Chinese citizens in.

    Here's some of the responses to Australia's effective, and correct, border closure measures to stop the spread:

    “It’s an overreaction,” Abbey Shi told Al Jazeera by telephone.

    Shi is an international student from Shanghai, and the general secretary of the University of Sydney Student Representative Council. She believes that students are keeping themselves well-informed about the coronavirus.
    5th of Feburary 2020
     

    “I have absolutely no idea what will happen from here,” Ritsu says, describing the travel ban as an “excuse for racism”.
    4th of February 2020
     

    Dozens of people have rallied outside the immigration department’s Sydney offices calling on Canberra to lift the travel ban on foreign nationals travelling from China amid the coronavirus outbreak.
    Some held signs stating “No politics of fear – we stand with the Chinese community” and “Solidarity with Wuhan” while others chanted “No racism, no fear, Chinese people are welcome here”.
     

    Ahmed Ademoglu, who represents 700,000 international tertiary students in Australia, said they felt "exploited" and would discourage future students from enrolling here. International students were aggrieved in particular by the detention of Chinese students in Australian airports and the block on Chinese student visas since the travel ban was introduced on February 1
     
    And my favourite:

    Wang Xining, an official from the Chinese embassy in Canberra..."We hope their rights and interests will be safeguarded, including proper expansion of visas if the validity is over, and also maybe proper compensation for some of the financial losses during this period."
     
    Funnily enough I didn't see anyone complaining when Australia extended the travel ban to Iran, Italy, Korea and so forth once they were experiencing outbreaks as well.

    Ahmed Ademoglu, who represents 700,000 international tertiary students in Australia, said they felt “exploited” and would discourage future students from enrolling here.

    I wish all our foreign students could be like Ahmed.

  106. @Andy
    Very little density, very little public transportation on which the virus can spread (Australia is one of the few major countries without a subway system), early closing up of the country to foreigners, very few multigeneration households where old folks can be infected by their asymptomatic children. New Zealand which has similar characteristics, is also doing very well in containing the plague.

    Large Australian cities have metro train systems, they are just mostly not underground, and are not called subways – hence the lack of results when you google “Australian subways”

    You can rack up 90% of the Australian results to;
    a) Early (enough) quarantining of arrivals and border closures that were actually enforced (being an island helps)
    b) Strong healthcare / biotech capability = high testing capacity
    c) Reasonably unified government approach – easier with only a handful of relevant states
    d) Luck – for the above factors, and that that larger clusters didn’t develop earlier. It is surprising given the time of year this happened, that more cases were not imported from China early. Australia’s universities (highly reliant on Chinese students) were instructing students from China how to get around the measures that preceded the border closures (i.e. routes through other provinces/countries) well into March

    These factors allowed test and trace techniques to be used effectively – once the numbers get too big there’s not much you can do, but it never got to that point in Aus. The same results were achieved in New Zealand with a very similar approach.

    Things that probably don’t matter that much;
    Weather – This would have been demonstrated clearly if it were true. The least air-conditioned buildings in Singapore are the workers dorms, but that’s where the breakouts are
    Physical density – Human-to-human social contact is the major relevant variable here. Large train patronage likely affects it, but that didn’t stop it spreading in rural Italian towns

  107. @dfordoom

    Advantages of a parliamentary system, much harder for the bureaucracy and courts to undermine the Prime Minister’s directive.
     
    Yes, having a rational workable political system certainly helps. In the US you have a political system that makes your country ungovernable.

    In Australia we also have much much less corruption. So Australian politics attracts a much better class of person compared to US politics.

    Australians are much less religious than Americans and less prone to hysteria.

    Australia also has a rational fully functioning welfare state so we don't have a hostile underclass to the same extent as the US. We don't have a huge homeless problem. And we do make an effort o look after old people.

    We have a rational functioning universal health system that is not riddled with corruption and profiteering.

    We also don't shoot each other as often. Even our cops are not trigger-happy thugs.

    Imagine a country in which government basically works and the grown-ups are in charge and that's Australia. It's not perfect but mostly it works.

    Yep.

    As I said in a comment here the other day: the US is a third world country. Literally Upper Volta with rockets.

    • Replies: @JMcG
    Correct. I hope the powers that be are planning on getting rid of our nukes as South Africa did, before its too late.
    , @AnotherDad


    As I said in a comment here the other day: the US is a third world country. Literally Upper Volta with rockets.
     
    Oh please. Upper Volta?

    No. We are slumping toward being Brazil ... with rockets. And still have a long way to go on that.
  108. anon[313] • Disclaimer says:
    @Blinky Bill
    What kind of Bogan logic is that ! Wear a face mask go back to Asia ? Did Corona give you brain damage ?

    What kind of Bogan logic is that ! Wear a face mask go back to Asia ?

    The virus came from china. We in Oz were fine before they infected us – we shouldn’t have to wear masks.
    Is this hard for you to understand? Australia isn’t asia you retarded bell-end.
    Tell your chinese wife’s son to stop posting on your behalf .

    • Replies: @Blinky Bill
    You really are a drongo. My Chinese wife's son doesn't speak english. Viruses don't discriminate even drop kicks like you should put on a mask! Probably the single most effective intervention one can make.

    https://slatestarcodex.com/2020/03/23/face-masks-much-more-than-you-wanted-to-know/

    , @dfordoom

    The virus came from china. We in Oz were fine before they infected us
     
    In Australia the coronavirus came largely from the United States. We were fine before the Americans infected us.
  109. @Richard of Melbourne
    We are not all Australians in Australia, just as there are a lot of people other than Americans living in the USA.

    See the recent fate of NYC for an example of the virus scything its way through a largely non-American population (especially in Queens).

    It is true that (almost) half of Queens, in particular, is made up of foreign-born people (one could say foreign-born Americans, but to your benefit this will not be assumed). It is also true Queens was specially affected. But most cases are not in Queens or New York, and the disease is spreading far beyond. A significant surge in cases (relative to the local population) is being seen in states like Michigan, North Dakota and Louisiana, which don’t have that many non-Americans, unless American Indians and blacks are considered to be non-American, too.

    As for Australia, you know about the demographics of your own country and its large percentage (30%) of foreign-born subjects. Yet the coronavirus was seemingly a fiasco there. So it is possible having many immigrants (without discriminating from where they come from, of course — not all immigrants are the same) relative to the local population does not correlate that well with the new coronavirus’ spread.

  110. NZ’s doing OK too. The virus arrived here late and the lock-down has been extreme. Unlike Australia, we have a real winter and it’s getting cold now. People tend not to live in flats, and most housing sections are large enough to make social distancing easy. Except in Wellington, there is next to no public transport. You have to drive.

    https://www.health.govt.nz/our-work/diseases-and-conditions/covid-19-novel-coronavirus/covid-19-current-situation/covid-19-current-cases

  111. @Unladen Swallow
    Advantages of a parliamentary system, much harder for the bureaucracy and courts to undermine the Prime Minister's directive. Judges have been flouting Trump's directives from the beginning, to say nothing of the bureaucracy. James Q. Wilson documented this a while ago in his book "Bureaucracy"

    Some of the comments here are laughable

    It has always been the case that if it is pointed out that some country is doing better at something/anything than the US that there will be a sizeable cohort of Americans who will refuse to take this at face value – maybe they’re lying/cheating or it’s comparing apples and oranges -everyone knows that when it’s a level playing field the US always wins etc etc
    Ironically it is this same group who are often the same people who are endlessly complaing how Amerika has gone to the dogs

    What’s the American expression ? Keep drinking the cool aid ?

    • Agree: Cagey Beast
  112. @Kyle
    Ahh but Detroit proper is half a million people and Sydney proper is a quarter million. Metro Detroit is huge and very spread out, land area wise.

    What are you counting as Sydney proper? It’s not like London where there is an actual well defined City and the rest is outer.

  113. Snickering at all the comments saying Australia doesn’t have public transport. The 3 biggest cities – Sydney, Melbourne and Brisbane- all have extensive train and bus systems. Subways are only one kind of rolling stock you know.
    One factor that hasn’t been mentioned yet is that we adopted working from home early and enthusiastically. Or, for many people, not working as small businesses shut their doors. The trains were increasingly empty from mid March.

  114. @Stebbing Heuer
    Yep.

    As I said in a comment here the other day: the US is a third world country. Literally Upper Volta with rockets.

    Correct. I hope the powers that be are planning on getting rid of our nukes as South Africa did, before its too late.

  115. I’ve lived in Oz. One thing that stuck out a mile is that Aussies are good at practical things. I dare say that helps in the present unpleasantness.

    I’ve also lived in NZ so I’m not in the least surprised that they are doing well too.

    On the subject of NZ, Japan, and California – is it an advantage to have government policies and procedures that have been devised for earthquake emergencies?

    • Replies: @dfordoom

    I’ve lived in Oz. One thing that stuck out a mile is that Aussies are good at practical things.
     
    Australians are not constantly on the verge of hysteria and moral panics. And we don't politicise everything to the extent that Americans do. We don't see everything as a political or moral issue. Australia is a pragmatic country.

    It's worth pointing out that Australia's most successful prime ministers in electoral terms, Menzies and Hawke, were pragmatists rather than ideologues. Australians admire pragmatic politicians.
  116. @vhrm
    NYC "stay-at-home" order went into effect Mar 20th 2020 8pm. So we'll call it 21st.
    That's 7 days after the peak in that illness graph. same for Queens County

    So just like in Florida and in the Bay Area, CA flu like illnesses were already dropping significantly by the time it went into effect. And in this graph it can be seen that there slope was already more negative than the "expected" line by that time.

    And this is without accounting for incubation periods, ~2 avg for fly according to the web and 5 for Covid-19, but who really knows.

    My claim is therefore again that the curve was already bent well before the shelter-in-place/shutdown order and this supports that they were unnecessary.

    the curve was already bent well before the shelter-in-place/shutdown order and this supports that they were unnecessary.

    This is also what Dr Knut Wittkowski demonstrated in his April 1 paper already, on which he was interviewed April 2-3.

    The video of his interview, which can be described as “hardline anti-CoronaPanic,” has been suppressed by Google (de-listed, not findable by search), Facebook (flagged and reportedly people have been blocked from posting it), and Youtube itself (de-listed).

    Dr. Wittkowski is one of the many, many experts in the field* who, when people bother to ask them, turn out to be anti-CoronaPanic, anti-Shutdown.

    _______
    .

    (Wittkowski has thirty years of internationally recognized expertise in epidemiology; for almost twenty years he was the Head of Biostatistics, Epidemiology, and Research Design, Center for Clinical & Translational Science at Rockefeller University in New York; PhD, Computer Science, Univ. of Stuttgart, 1985; PhD, Medical Biometry, Univ. of Tübingen, 1993.)

    • Thanks: Federalist
    • Replies: @Hail
    A recent update from Dr Knut Wittkowski (written I think on April 15):

    [The] epidemic curves...are declining, as I predicted, including in most European and North-American countries, irrespective of whether social distancing was imposed on their citizens and, if so, when and how.

    Hence, there is no evidence that social distancing had an effect that could justify shutting the economy down, causing >22M people to lose their jobs, and spending trillions of dollars on mere band aids.

    My conclusion that this epidemic is very similar to other flu epidemics, and, thus needs no hurtful interventions, was obviously correct.
     
    On Singapore, writing April 16:

    [T]here is a recent spike in Singapore. If it's the same virus (as one might expect), I hope the Government in Singapore is not making the same mistakes as many others and driving the economy against the wall.

    As we have learned now, over and over again, this flu is a flu. Protect the elderly and vulnerable; otherwise let it run its course and (if it's not just one of the many reporting artifact we have seen) it will be over in three weeks, tops (Turgidson 1964).
     
    Let us commend all who Honor the Truth, including when it is against the mob.
    , @Federalist
    Starting at about 26:30 he explains how social distancing/shelter in place delays herd immunity which leads to MORE DEATHS.

    But nobody who pushed the shutdown (including Steve) wants to even discuss this possibility.
    , @Anonymous
    2m. SARS1 was a respiratory disease and defeated not by letting it run its course but by eradication.

    4m over in 2 weeks. BS. What we saw early on was case 10x increase in 2 weeks. For a country like the US minimum 8 10x periods, or 4 months.

    I don't particularly care to Fisk the rest of this.

    Steve was right in the first place with eradication.
    , @Anonymous
    Wittkowski has a serious case of sanpaku eyes (google it) and that chewing of his is unnerving. Something deeply wrong with this guy IMO.
  117. @Unladen Swallow
    Advantages of a parliamentary system, much harder for the bureaucracy and courts to undermine the Prime Minister's directive. Judges have been flouting Trump's directives from the beginning, to say nothing of the bureaucracy. James Q. Wilson documented this a while ago in his book "Bureaucracy"

    Advantages of a parliamentary system, much harder for the bureaucracy and courts to undermine the Prime Minister’s directive.

    That wasn’t the lesson of Brexit where the UK Supreme Court simply made up “law” to obstruct Boris.

    P.S. The sooner we get rid of this new-fangled Supreme Court the better. It’s another Toni Blair fiasco.

  118. @anon

    What kind of Bogan logic is that ! Wear a face mask go back to Asia ?
     
    The virus came from china. We in Oz were fine before they infected us - we shouldn't have to wear masks.
    Is this hard for you to understand? Australia isn't asia you retarded bell-end.
    Tell your chinese wife's son to stop posting on your behalf .

    You really are a drongo. My Chinese wife’s son doesn’t speak english. Viruses don’t discriminate even drop kicks like you should put on a mask! Probably the single most effective intervention one can make.

    https://slatestarcodex.com/2020/03/23/face-masks-much-more-than-you-wanted-to-know/

  119. @Hail

    the curve was already bent well before the shelter-in-place/shutdown order and this supports that they were unnecessary.
     
    This is also what Dr Knut Wittkowski demonstrated in his April 1 paper already, on which he was interviewed April 2-3.

    The video of his interview, which can be described as "hardline anti-CoronaPanic," has been suppressed by Google (de-listed, not findable by search), Facebook (flagged and reportedly people have been blocked from posting it), and Youtube itself (de-listed).

    https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=lGC5sGdz4kg

    Dr. Wittkowski is one of the many, many experts in the field* who, when people bother to ask them, turn out to be anti-CoronaPanic, anti-Shutdown.

    _______
    .

    (Wittkowski has thirty years of internationally recognized expertise in epidemiology; for almost twenty years he was the Head of Biostatistics, Epidemiology, and Research Design, Center for Clinical & Translational Science at Rockefeller University in New York; PhD, Computer Science, Univ. of Stuttgart, 1985; PhD, Medical Biometry, Univ. of Tübingen, 1993.)

    A recent update from Dr Knut Wittkowski (written I think on April 15):

    [The] epidemic curves…are declining, as I predicted, including in most European and North-American countries, irrespective of whether social distancing was imposed on their citizens and, if so, when and how.

    Hence, there is no evidence that social distancing had an effect that could justify shutting the economy down, causing >22M people to lose their jobs, and spending trillions of dollars on mere band aids.

    My conclusion that this epidemic is very similar to other flu epidemics, and, thus needs no hurtful interventions, was obviously correct.

    On Singapore, writing April 16:

    [T]here is a recent spike in Singapore. If it’s the same virus (as one might expect), I hope the Government in Singapore is not making the same mistakes as many others and driving the economy against the wall.

    As we have learned now, over and over again, this flu is a flu. Protect the elderly and vulnerable; otherwise let it run its course and (if it’s not just one of the many reporting artifact we have seen) it will be over in three weeks, tops (Turgidson 1964).

    Let us commend all who Honor the Truth, including when it is against the mob.

    • Agree: Polynikes, TomSchmidt
    • Replies: @utu
    "The opinions that have been expressed by Knut Wittkowski, discouraging social distancing in order to hasten the development of herd immunity to the novel coronavirus, do not represent the views of The Rockefeller University, its leadership, or its faculty.

    Wittkowski was previously employed by Rockefeller as a biostatistician. He has never held the title of professor at Rockefeller." - April 13, 2020, The Rockefeller University
    https://www.rockefeller.edu/news/27872-rockefeller-university-releases-statement-concerning-dr-knut-wittkowski/
    , @vhrm
    Hmmm... I like what he's saying overall, but there are some aspects that are not necessarily convincing. For example he says (in the 1st video) that it's over in China and Korea because it burned out, but that's only true for Wuhan and whatever that Korean City was.

    But it IS interesting to consider that Wuhan's "advantage" was that they _didn't_ shut down early and this possibly had a practically unmitigated run of it.

    In any case the part about protecting seniors while keeping the schools open so it quickly burns through the young population in a few weeks seems like a good idea.

    We've closed the senior communities and nursing homes ANYWAY, so we might as well let it run through everyone else so we can open them again.

    Makes more sense than what we're doing now...
    , @Hail
    Update (April 17) from Knut Wittkowski, on the best measures to have taken to protect the vulnerable, and further comments on the origin of the Corona Big Mistake (the disastrous, unnecessary shutdowns):

    The NYT today reports that many more people died in nursing homes than previously reported. This highlights the problem with isolating everybody rather than focusing on those at the highest risk.

    With much less than a few trillion dollars the government could have paid nurses overtime to stay within the facility for four weeks so that they could have been completely isolated. For other elderly people, one could have organized home delivery of prescription medicine (what Australia did) and three prepared meals a day, picked up and delivered laundry, ... you name it.

    Instead, schools were closed and the economy was driven against the wall to prolong the duration of the epidemic and, thus, to prevent effective isolation of high risk populations - all because the scientists trained in assessing the impact (or lack thereof) of public health interventions were not included in the discussion.
     

    There is also a line in there complimenting Australia's corona response, re: "What is Australia doing right?"
  120. @Clyde
    Actually the Chinese are the real racists here. Surprise! They quarantined Wuhan so that none could could get out of Wuhan to go elsewhere in China ..... But Wuhan residents could still go to the Wuhan International Airport and fly to other nations to infect them.

    The Chicom leadership used the Wu Flu for asymmetrical warfare. They took a virus that escaped from the Wuhan virus lab and they ran with it. Trump was onto this evil shit early, he got good intel, so at least he banned flights direct from China,

    Do you have a source? Some foreigners were evacuated form Wuhan on chartered flights, iirc.

    • Replies: @Clyde

    Do you have a source? Some foreigners were evacuated form Wuhan on chartered flights, iirc.
     
    This has been all over Fox News for 48 hours. Sean Hannity, Tucker Carlson, with Bret Baier breaking it with his sources.

    That China let (Encouraged?) Wuhan residents to fly out internationally, while quarantining them from travel within China. How to spread the Kung-Flu across the world. https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=xGapD5fsIMo

  121. @dfordoom

    In places like Australia where social controls have already reached the desired draconian pitch, it is expedient for the government to play down the case count in order to sell the measures’ popularity (“See, we’re keeping you safe”).
     
    I don't think so. In Australia COVID really does seem to be a very minor problem. I don't know anyone who's had it, I don't know of anyone who's had it, nobody I know knows anyone who's had it. It really does seem to be completely under control. It seems likely that the Australian government is telling the truth.

    Our governments aren't perfect but compared to the US they're at least reasonably honest.

    And the controls are not that draconian. Where I live people make a token effort at social distancing but are not in the least obsessive about it. It's not a genuine police state the way modern Britain is.

    In Australia it's mostly younger people who are obsessive about the rules. Boomers are mostly very sceptical about the need for the lockdowns.

    And the controls are not that draconian. Where I live people make a token effort at social distancing but are not in the least obsessive about it. It’s not a genuine police state the way modern Britain is.

    Interesting. You see stories about over officious enforcement coming out of Britain all the time, but here in Florida we are under “lockdown” but I have never seen or heard of any police enforcement actions other than clearing public beaches which are now closed to the public.

    The enforcement works much more at an institutional and governmental level. Schools closed, non essential businesses closed, however that is interpreted very loosely. In my neighborhood the Ace Hardware and the animal feed store are open, so is a tool and equipment rental place, a car repair place, and the dollar store. All gas stations with convenience stores are open. However the courthouse and local government offices are closed, parks are closed and of course restaurants are closed except for takeouts.

    So the overall effect is that people are mostly at home, there is not much traffic, and most people have no particular place to go other than to work, the supermarket, or the gas station.

    • Replies: @dfordoom

    Interesting. You see stories about over officious enforcement coming out of Britain all the time,
     
    Britain has been heading towards totalitarianism for quite a while. The British police have been entirely politicised.

    I know that much of this started under Blair but the process was accelerated under the former Nanny-in-Chief Theresa May. Both Labour and the Tories are committed to totalitarianism. The British seem to be quite willing to accept it. Maybe Orwell was onto something in predicting a totalitarian future for Britain - maybe he could already see the signs.
  122. @adreadline
    End the lockdowns, god damn it! There are dozens of millions of Ozzies unemployed because of your bloody masks! Soon, no one will have any money to slip a single shrimp on the barbie, or even to slip, slop, slap!

    End the lockdowns, god damn it!

    I had this years work lined up, and now all gone. No income.
    You’re a funny guy, so go fuck yourself with a burnt stick.

  123. @Kyle
    What is Australia doing right? It’s just the flu bro. It’s a small country with no massive population centers like New York, LA, or Detroit. Obviously covid—19 is going to hit some people hard, especially those with underlying conditions. It’s a Coronavirus that nobody is immune too. But the actual infirmary magnitude of the virus is no worse than the flu. That’s not to say that the flu is no big deal. Anybody who’s had the flu knows that it’s horrible and it makes you feel like death. But we have some level of herd immunity towards the flu, with the vaccines and from people who have developed immunities against it. So there aren’t millions of people who die from it each year.

    Actually it is a large country. But the population is heavily concentrated in a few coastal cities (Sydney, Melbourne, Perth) and the large interior is mostly empty.

  124. @Steve Sailer
    So will this get better as it warms up?

    I hope so.

    Only one way to find out

  125. @Hail
    A recent update from Dr Knut Wittkowski (written I think on April 15):

    [The] epidemic curves...are declining, as I predicted, including in most European and North-American countries, irrespective of whether social distancing was imposed on their citizens and, if so, when and how.

    Hence, there is no evidence that social distancing had an effect that could justify shutting the economy down, causing >22M people to lose their jobs, and spending trillions of dollars on mere band aids.

    My conclusion that this epidemic is very similar to other flu epidemics, and, thus needs no hurtful interventions, was obviously correct.
     
    On Singapore, writing April 16:

    [T]here is a recent spike in Singapore. If it's the same virus (as one might expect), I hope the Government in Singapore is not making the same mistakes as many others and driving the economy against the wall.

    As we have learned now, over and over again, this flu is a flu. Protect the elderly and vulnerable; otherwise let it run its course and (if it's not just one of the many reporting artifact we have seen) it will be over in three weeks, tops (Turgidson 1964).
     
    Let us commend all who Honor the Truth, including when it is against the mob.

    “The opinions that have been expressed by Knut Wittkowski, discouraging social distancing in order to hasten the development of herd immunity to the novel coronavirus, do not represent the views of The Rockefeller University, its leadership, or its faculty.

    Wittkowski was previously employed by Rockefeller as a biostatistician. He has never held the title of professor at Rockefeller.” – April 13, 2020, The Rockefeller University
    https://www.rockefeller.edu/news/27872-rockefeller-university-releases-statement-concerning-dr-knut-wittkowski/

    • Replies: @Hail

    Wittkowski was previously employed by Rockefeller as a biostatistician. He has never held the title of professor at Rockefeller.” – April 13, 2020
     
    Nice try, utu, but "He has never been a professor at Rockefeller" is weak.

    Reposting from the James Thomspon thread:

    _________________

    Here is Knut Wittkowski addressing the pro-CoronaPanic side's misdirectionist maneuver on saying he was technically not a professor at Rockefeller (but was a professor elsewhere). He was only the Head of the Department of Biostatistics, Epidemiology, and Research Design!

    [April 15]

    I had a scientific career even before coming to New York. My field is Medical Biometry, the application of mathematical methods and models to the biosciences and, but modeling the HIV epidemic, while at the University of Tübingen, Germany, I predicted in the early 1990s that the HIV epidemic would never spread within the European heterosexual population. Look it up!

    However, the main point here is that The Rockefeller University (RU) is intentionally spreading misinformation.

    I have informed RU yesterday that they are misquoting me. As they still do it, it must be intentional [...]
     
    And this by Wittkowski:

    I don't understand why some people (and institutions) create a smokescreen by raising formal criteria rather than address the issues at hand (which I consider more important), but if I have to I will engage in that sidetrack as well. I have informed The Rockefeller University (RU) on April 14 that they are misquoting me. As they still do it, it must be intentional, so let me set this straight:

    (1) I am not "discouraging social distancing" (breaking the law). I'm asking people to discuss the policy decisions made with their representatives. This are two very different things. Why is RU against an informed democratic discourse between voters and their representatives? (In Europe, some of that discussion took place and restrictions are beginning to be removed. For instance, the German Academy of Science has recommended opening schools as soon as possible, as I had before.)

    (2) I have never claimed to have "held the title of a professor at Rockefeller". Just see the beginning of the video for what I claimed and my LinkedIn page for my academic career before I came to RU. (I've also never claimed to be a Martian, which would be equally ridiculous to accuse me of.)

    I would understand substantive criticism for having having erred in predicted this epidemic curves to decline soon - but (unfortunately?) they are declining, as I predicted, including in most European and North-American countries, irrespective of whether social distancing was imposed on their citizens and, if so, when and how. Hence, there is no evidence that social distancing had an effect that could justify shutting the economy down, causing >22M people to lose their jobs, and spending trillions of dollars on mere band aids. My conclusion that this epidemic is very similar to other flu epidemics, and, thus needs no hurtful interventions, was obviously correct.

    Criticizing people for something they never said, however, is polemic. What are the interests that drive RU to resort to polemic?
     
  126. @Simon Tugmutton
    I'd guess blood-levels of vitamin D. The active form is produced by the action of sunlight on the skin and is critical to the immune system; you can also get it from certain foods. Various studies have shown that healthy levels (40 ng/ml and above) mitigate or even prevent respiratory infections.

    If you have a lot of melanin in your skin, live in relatively high latitudes (e.g. the UK, New York, Chicago) and do not supplement with at least 2000 IU of vitamin D daily, you are a sitting duck for the coronavirus -- as the numbers are showing. Apparently over 80% of American blacks are vitamin D deficient.

    Medical advice to avoid the sun for fear of skin-cancer complicates the picture, of course, and there is widespread deficiency in the whole population. But I'd say that regular barbies on Bondi Beach will do no harm whatever to your chances of surviving the bug.

    Isn’t Scandinavia doing reasonably well with Covid? High latitude and even light skin people would not have been generating Vit D from sunlight the last few months. Maybe they are on a daily Vit D regimen?

  127. @Pericles
    The Chinese want compensation for the international consequences of the Wuhan virus? There's no way that plan can backfire.

    Unfortunately the Australian government bends over backwards to these people, not counting all the political corruption from the China lobby who donated bags full of illegal money to politicians to get their way.

    The simple fact that Chinese ambassadors can attempt to extort Australia, and Australians, for closing their borders to stop infectious diseases tells you the damage is done. Thank you Leftism for letting the Chinese get away with crying racism at every opportunity.

  128. @Daniel Williams
    They have some kind of national service called Aged Care that takes care of ‘em in a different way than we do ours. Old people get subsidized services ranging from meal delivery to rooms in nursing homes.

    The Strine Institute of Health sayeth:

    How many people use aged care?
    More than 1.2 million people [We have what, 50M that we know of here?] received aged care services during 2017–18, with most (77%) receiving support in their home or other community-based settings. Putting this in context, of Australians aged 65 and over in 2017–18: 7% accessed residential aged care.
     
    So most of ‘em are in their own houses, and not crammed together like ours on old-people reservations and crooked nursing homes. That population density figure includes old people too.

    They have some kind of national service called Aged Care that takes care of ‘em in a different way than we do ours. Old people get subsidized services ranging from meal delivery to rooms in nursing homes.

    So do Asians step off the airplane in Australia and by the next day have old Uncle and old Auntie signed up getting full benefits, even though they never paid a dime into the system?

    • Replies: @Daniel Williams
    Dunno. The Strines are as dumb as we are, if so.
    , @Anon
    Uncles and aunties don’t qualify for migration. If citizen-migrants want to bring their parents to live in Australia, they have to pay a significant bond to cover their healthcare expenses (or wait something like 20 years for one of the rare free spaces). Any skilled migrants have to wait years for welfare as well.
  129. @Hail

    the curve was already bent well before the shelter-in-place/shutdown order and this supports that they were unnecessary.
     
    This is also what Dr Knut Wittkowski demonstrated in his April 1 paper already, on which he was interviewed April 2-3.

    The video of his interview, which can be described as "hardline anti-CoronaPanic," has been suppressed by Google (de-listed, not findable by search), Facebook (flagged and reportedly people have been blocked from posting it), and Youtube itself (de-listed).

    https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=lGC5sGdz4kg

    Dr. Wittkowski is one of the many, many experts in the field* who, when people bother to ask them, turn out to be anti-CoronaPanic, anti-Shutdown.

    _______
    .

    (Wittkowski has thirty years of internationally recognized expertise in epidemiology; for almost twenty years he was the Head of Biostatistics, Epidemiology, and Research Design, Center for Clinical & Translational Science at Rockefeller University in New York; PhD, Computer Science, Univ. of Stuttgart, 1985; PhD, Medical Biometry, Univ. of Tübingen, 1993.)

    Starting at about 26:30 he explains how social distancing/shelter in place delays herd immunity which leads to MORE DEATHS.

    But nobody who pushed the shutdown (including Steve) wants to even discuss this possibility.

    • Agree: Hail
    • Replies: @Redman
    Certainly getting all the kiddies infected and with immunity would be huge.

    Although they now say that the kids fight off the virus before building antibodies. But that would also suggest they are naturally immune in the first place. And could never become spreaders (as they normally are). If kids fight off the virus “before” infection, does that mean they don’t actually shed virus which is spread to others?

    That would be a nice piece of information. Not only could you keep the schools open, but the kiddies could still visit grandma and grandpa without worrying about possibly killing them.
    , @Alexander Turok

    Starting at about 26:30 he explains how social distancing/shelter in place delays herd immunity which leads to MORE DEATHS.
     
    Only if you accept that nothing can be done to stop the spread, ignoring the real world examples of China and now America and Europe, where the number of new cases per day is no longer growing.
  130. GermanReader2 [AKA "GermanReader2_new"] says:
    @PiltdownMan
    There are huge differences in death rates in Europe, too, between Belgium and nearby Switzerland, for instance, that are not explained by the difference in the number of hospital beds per capita, or critical care beds per capita.

    On the latter score, America has the highest number of critical care beds per capita, along with Germany. Go figure.

    https://i.imgur.com/jPhPFcl.jpg

    I did not follow the situation regarding corona in other countries religiously, but from casual news-watching I got the following picture regarding the situation in the different European countries:
    It seems, one can group the countries by the language-family of the official language. Then there are three groups:
    -The Slawic-speaking countries (Poland, Czech Republic, Hungary etc.): By and large they do not have a lot of cases. That seems to come from the relative poverty there, that makes it unlikely to go skiing in the Alps and a more reality-based outlook from life that comes from living under communism and the accompanied poverty (these people cannot be white-guilted into staging hug-a-Chinese-days or cut off travel from countries inhabited by people of a different race). Most cases there seem to come from seasonal workers, who worked in the restaurants etc. in the skiing-towns in the Alps. Since these are overwhelmingly young people the death rate is not that high. It will be interesting to see, what happens in the summer, since a lof Eastern Europeans do agricultural work in Western Europe and might bring the virus back into their countries
    -The countries that speak a Germanic language (Germany, Austria, Switzerland)
    These countries have a huge number of cases (Austria and Switzerland have a huge number of cases per capita), but seem to be holding on. The death-rate is average to low for coronavirus. They can even support the health system of the countries that speak a Romance language by sending medical supplies there and accepting ICU patients.
    -The countries that speak a Romance language (France, Italy, Spain). Here, the healthcare-system is completely overwhelmed, and the death-rate is around 10 percent and would probably be even higher if not for support from their neighbours.

    A few notable exceptions and points for thought:
    -The worst hit part of France (Alsace) is inhabited by ethnic Germans (You can see that by looking in a phonebook there or seeing the names of some of the doctors interviewed. They even have the highest consumption of sauerkraut per capita there). This to me looks as if the language spoken is a factor (maybe some languages produce more flying particles when speaking than other languages)
    -Portugal is remarkably unscathed
    -Is here anyone from Switzerland, that can tell me, what part of the country is the hardes hit and whether the health system has collapsed in some parts of the country but not in others?
    -According to this website (https://de.statista.com/statistik/daten/studie/1103785/umfrage/mortalitaetsrate-des-coronavirus-nach-laendern/) Britain has a remarkably high fatality rate and Belgiums is even higher. Can anyone tell me, what is going on there?
    -The Netherlands have a remarkably high mortality rate as well. In Germany, people always thought, that the Dutch healthcare-system was better than theirs. I wonder, what is going on.
    -I would love to see the, whether there is a difference between the Flamish (Germanic language) and French-speaking parts of Belgium.

    • Replies: @Anonymous
    The Netherlands went for herd immunity before changing direction, right? Maybe they seeded the disease in vulnerable populations.

    Could it also be that the better the healthcare system, the worse the outcome? Too much use of ventilators damaging lungs?
    , @Agathoklis
    The two Hellenic states, Greece and Cyprus, have also done remarkably well. Perhaps the best performers in Europe.
  131. @Simon Tugmutton
    I'd guess blood-levels of vitamin D. The active form is produced by the action of sunlight on the skin and is critical to the immune system; you can also get it from certain foods. Various studies have shown that healthy levels (40 ng/ml and above) mitigate or even prevent respiratory infections.

    If you have a lot of melanin in your skin, live in relatively high latitudes (e.g. the UK, New York, Chicago) and do not supplement with at least 2000 IU of vitamin D daily, you are a sitting duck for the coronavirus -- as the numbers are showing. Apparently over 80% of American blacks are vitamin D deficient.

    Medical advice to avoid the sun for fear of skin-cancer complicates the picture, of course, and there is widespread deficiency in the whole population. But I'd say that regular barbies on Bondi Beach will do no harm whatever to your chances of surviving the bug.

    I’m no doctor, so your theory sounds as good as anything I have. Just seems to me like this thing has mostly not been a problem in warmer areas. Similar to regular flu patterns. But, I am just guessing.

  132. @Anon
    Italy had Type C, via Singapore and Hong Kong. The U.S. and Australia have Type A, which was the second biggest strain in China. Spain has Type A, like the US, but most of Europe has Type B. This is from a map that I can only find in Google Images, so I can't link to it. Here's some text information about the three main strains:

    http://www.financetwitter.com/2020/04/three-coronavirus-variants-discovered-surprisingly-type-a-found-in-americans-wuhans-type-b-and-type-c-in-europe.html

    Would each strain have different R0’s?

    I’ve mentioned a couple times that there is something very asymmetrical about the whole thing which has then thrown off typical pattern recognition, even in smart folks.

    In other words, some of the wackiest models could’ve been using R0s from aggressive but non deadly strains and CFRs from the more deadly but not as aggressive strains.

  133. anonymous[283] • Disclaimer says:
    @Mobi
    Only one subway line in all of Australasia.

    Literally, a single line in Sydney (13 stops, open just one year).

    New Zealand is doing even better.

    Only one subway line in all of Australasia.

    Classic example of being factual but not truthful.

    Almost all of Sydney’s [[trains that run underground in the city center and carry millions of commuters daily in standing room only]] are part of the SydneyTrains system, whereas the one line you are referencing is the Sydney Metro. What is the functional difference? None. Anyone seeing a SydneyTrains train pull into one of the underground stations and looking like New York of Tokyo with people rushing on and off would say “yep, that’s a subway.”

    Melbourne has the world’s largest tram system, which I guess can’t be considered a subway because no portion is underground, but as far as commuters traveling cheek to jowel, check.

    • Agree: Momus
  134. Anonymous[190] • Disclaimer says:
    @Hail

    the curve was already bent well before the shelter-in-place/shutdown order and this supports that they were unnecessary.
     
    This is also what Dr Knut Wittkowski demonstrated in his April 1 paper already, on which he was interviewed April 2-3.

    The video of his interview, which can be described as "hardline anti-CoronaPanic," has been suppressed by Google (de-listed, not findable by search), Facebook (flagged and reportedly people have been blocked from posting it), and Youtube itself (de-listed).

    https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=lGC5sGdz4kg

    Dr. Wittkowski is one of the many, many experts in the field* who, when people bother to ask them, turn out to be anti-CoronaPanic, anti-Shutdown.

    _______
    .

    (Wittkowski has thirty years of internationally recognized expertise in epidemiology; for almost twenty years he was the Head of Biostatistics, Epidemiology, and Research Design, Center for Clinical & Translational Science at Rockefeller University in New York; PhD, Computer Science, Univ. of Stuttgart, 1985; PhD, Medical Biometry, Univ. of Tübingen, 1993.)

    2m. SARS1 was a respiratory disease and defeated not by letting it run its course but by eradication.

    4m over in 2 weeks. BS. What we saw early on was case 10x increase in 2 weeks. For a country like the US minimum 8 10x periods, or 4 months.

    I don’t particularly care to Fisk the rest of this.

    Steve was right in the first place with eradication.

  135. Anonymous[190] • Disclaimer says:
    @Hail

    the curve was already bent well before the shelter-in-place/shutdown order and this supports that they were unnecessary.
     
    This is also what Dr Knut Wittkowski demonstrated in his April 1 paper already, on which he was interviewed April 2-3.

    The video of his interview, which can be described as "hardline anti-CoronaPanic," has been suppressed by Google (de-listed, not findable by search), Facebook (flagged and reportedly people have been blocked from posting it), and Youtube itself (de-listed).

    https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=lGC5sGdz4kg

    Dr. Wittkowski is one of the many, many experts in the field* who, when people bother to ask them, turn out to be anti-CoronaPanic, anti-Shutdown.

    _______
    .

    (Wittkowski has thirty years of internationally recognized expertise in epidemiology; for almost twenty years he was the Head of Biostatistics, Epidemiology, and Research Design, Center for Clinical & Translational Science at Rockefeller University in New York; PhD, Computer Science, Univ. of Stuttgart, 1985; PhD, Medical Biometry, Univ. of Tübingen, 1993.)

    Wittkowski has a serious case of sanpaku eyes (google it) and that chewing of his is unnerving. Something deeply wrong with this guy IMO.

    • Troll: Hail
    • Replies: @Anonymous
    8.35 into the video, Hail, crazy eyes begins. Between that and the perseverative chewing (dementia?), something is off about him. I'm not a troll for noticing this, Steve is all about the noticing.

    BTW I have WN sympathies, I like your posts most of the time but on this matter, I don't think this guy is a good source. He makes arguments that don't stand up, which I started on fisking.
    , @Lot
    Appearing normal while talking and looking directly into a video camera is an acquired skill.

    In Knut’s case he’s also pretty old and speaking in his non-native language about a complicated scientific topic.
  136. @Simon Tugmutton
    I'd guess blood-levels of vitamin D. The active form is produced by the action of sunlight on the skin and is critical to the immune system; you can also get it from certain foods. Various studies have shown that healthy levels (40 ng/ml and above) mitigate or even prevent respiratory infections.

    If you have a lot of melanin in your skin, live in relatively high latitudes (e.g. the UK, New York, Chicago) and do not supplement with at least 2000 IU of vitamin D daily, you are a sitting duck for the coronavirus -- as the numbers are showing. Apparently over 80% of American blacks are vitamin D deficient.

    Medical advice to avoid the sun for fear of skin-cancer complicates the picture, of course, and there is widespread deficiency in the whole population. But I'd say that regular barbies on Bondi Beach will do no harm whatever to your chances of surviving the bug.

    beaches and parks are open in Australia, too

  137. @Kyle
    Ahh but Detroit proper is half a million people and Sydney proper is a quarter million. Metro Detroit is huge and very spread out, land area wise.

    some slight demographic differences tho

  138. @res

    Chillens are immune to kungflu. Everybody knows that.
     
    But perhaps not immune to transmitting it.

    If you look at the Kinsa data, school closings seem to be very effective. The incubation period is about 5 days so it takes that long to see the effect of a change in policy.
    https://www.kinsahealth.co/tale-of-two-cities-atypical-illness-trends-for-santa-clara-and-miami-dade-county/

    https://www.kinsahealth.co/wp-content/uploads/2020/03/Santa-Clara-and-Miami-Dade-County-Share-of-Population-with-Flu-Like-Illness-1.png

    I am really skeptical of the Kinsa data. Can someone explain what their numbers mean? I have a feeling it doesn’t really mean what they think it means.

    Say a million people have Kinsa smart thermometers. Does Kinsa report the percent of self-temperature readings that turn up feverish?

    —> Because then the Kinsa data would go to zero as healthy people panicked by the media measure themselves 10 times a day.

    If previously people took their temperature when they were sick, now everyone has media induced hypochondria. I think that is what the Kinsa data is actually showing. Am I wrong?

    Does it really make sense that in 10 days, the whole population got extremely healthy or are healthy people just checking their temperature obsessively? I suspect the latter. Can anyone answer this for me?

    • Replies: @res
    Those are good questions. The most detailed discussions of their methods I could find were in:
    - this blog post: https://www.kinsahealth.co/kinsas-real-time-illness-signal-provides-unprecedented-localized-illness-detection-and-forecasting/
    - which references this paper: https://academic.oup.com/cid/article/67/3/388/4838992
    - which also has a link to Supplementary Material

    Here is another paper discussing the models.
    https://academic.oup.com/ofid/article/6/11/ofz455/5610164

    The basic idea seems to be that they create a model (GLM) which maps the thermometer data into the equivalent of state ILI (influenza-like illness) activity. Here is a flu surveillance dashboard which shows flu infections going to zero (lower right graph) just as Kinsa's data does:
    https://gis.cdc.gov/grasp/fluview/fluportaldashboard.html

    I think that surveillance data serves as confirmation of the decline Kinsa observes.

    I have been assuming the people at Kinsa are not idiots and would recognize the issue you raise (but that's not always a safe assumption). It is possible the effect you describe is new (say typically people are more likely to take their temperature when they feel sick, but now everybody is) and they have failed to account for this.

    My theory is that new cases are down largely as they describe with existing cases either recovered or under care (and not using their Kinsa thermometer in the hospital). I think the steady declines in illness rate we are seeing after various shutdowns are a plausible outcome.

    I have been unable to figure out an answer to your questions from the links above. Perhaps you could take a look to see if you can? The most suggestive thing I saw was this excerpt from the Supplementary Material which sounds at least somewhat similar to the issue you raise.

    Appendix 1: De-trending the thermometer series to account for product uptake

    At the beginning of our study period there appears to be a slight product uptake effect, which is likely due to product growth as the number of active thermometer users increases. Beginning near the peak of the 2015-2016 flu season (week of 03/06/2016), the number of thermometer measurements appears to follow ILI-activity closely. However, leading up to this point, the number of thermometer measurements appears to steadily increase, as the difference between ILI activity and the number of thermometer measurements gradually decreases. This can be seen in Appendix Figure 1, below. In this figure, the ILI series has been normalized by its mean and standard deviation over the entire period, while the number of thermometer measurements has been normalized using the mean and standard deviation from the data after the week of 03/06/2016.
     
  139. Everything that applies to Australia applies also even more so with New Zealand, who seem to be the world champions of COVID-19 control. Maybe Trump should get Jacinda Adern in on his conference calls for a few tips.

    • Replies: @niceland
    If I understand correctly the New Zealand government isn't trying to flatten the curve, the aim is to eradicate the virus. It will be interesting to see if this is indeed possible and the path going forward for NZ vs Australia and others.
  140. @Kyle
    I’m not a scientist. But early on they were saying that the virus mutated every 15 days. How much does it actually mutate for them to say it’s officially mutated? I suppose enough to be significantly different. Is it possible for the virus to mutate into different strains with significantly different case fatality rates?

    it’s possible, but the experts seem to think that it is very unlikely and that the mutations are largely irrelevant ones. don’t worry it’ll be okay.

  141. @Clyde
    Actually the Chinese are the real racists here. Surprise! They quarantined Wuhan so that none could could get out of Wuhan to go elsewhere in China ..... But Wuhan residents could still go to the Wuhan International Airport and fly to other nations to infect them.

    The Chicom leadership used the Wu Flu for asymmetrical warfare. They took a virus that escaped from the Wuhan virus lab and they ran with it. Trump was onto this evil shit early, he got good intel, so at least he banned flights direct from China,

    The Chicom leadership used the Wu Flu for asymmetrical warfare. They took a virus that escaped from the Wuhan virus lab and they ran with it. Trump was onto this evil shit early, he got good intel, so at least he banned flights direct from China.

    Trump was dogmeat slow.

    Personal annecdote:
    We had a family trip to middle east–booked for a couple months–launching on Feb 2, (Targeting short break in my daughter’s med school rotations.)

    The prior two weeks, i’d been back and forth on going. Will this thing explode while we’re out? We will be able to get back? Will we end up in quarantine upon return? Or end up quarantined and stranded in Israel or Egypt or Germany? AnotherMom and I were congratulating our luck that we hadn’t gone through Asia–a few options we’d kicked around last fall. But even going through Europe seemed risky. I did the math and at the *personal* level the risk was low. I went ahead and rolled the dice.

    Got to SeaTac and our Lufthansa flight is between an AirChina flight to Beijing and a flight to Korea. Presumably planes that had come in and dumped hordes of people into the US.

    Trump’s “China travel ban” apparently didn’t even start until that evening. And only applied to foreigners who had been to China. And didn’t apply to foreigners who were family members of American citizens! American airlines–United, Delta, American–began shutting down their flights. But there still wasn’t any actual “China travel ban”.

    People could still travel to China and Americans–like Chinese Americans visiting their families–could go there and come back on through March and into April!

    ~~

    I’m reasonably intelligent but otherwise an ordinary citizen–no special “intel”–but it was crystal clear that China had failed and i was thinking we’ll have global pandemic and was worried about my family’s personal risk even going through Europe by mid-January.

    China travel should have been shut down by early January–probably earlier–depending on intel. Followed in short order by shutting down all travel and shuttering the US’s borders. This would have cut starting cases in the US by several orders of magnitude. At minimum we’d be a few weeks behind where we are in cases/deaths. And maybe enough that the CDC’s testing debacle could have been fixed in time accurately test and track cases in the US. Life in the US could have been more relaxed while we watched the rest of world’s response. Maybe–unlikely but possible–we could have swatted all the cases with quarantines and been a national oasis of normalcy. (Oh how our elites would have hated that.)

    Trump’s response was lame and weak. It only looks good–as with all things Trump–by comparison with Democrats who were doing “racism!”, “hug a Chinese person”, “got to the Chinese New Year’s Parade or else the Nazis have won”. (I.e. their usual nasty work, driven by their nasty minoritarian ideology.)

    To be fair to Trump, he’s dealing with an entire “elite” imbued with minoritarian-globalist ideology–hostile to protecting the interests of Americans. So Trump gets mediocre to terrible advice and has to figure stuff out on his own and then fight through this evil “elite”. Unfortunately for all the bluster … Trump is just not all that great at figuring stuff out and pushing that rock uphill.

    • Replies: @Ron Mexico
    "I’m reasonably intelligent but otherwise an ordinary citizen–no special “intel”–but it was crystal clear that China had failed and i was thinking we’ll have global pandemic and was worried about my family’s personal risk even going through Europe by mid-January."

    Did you shout this from the mountaintops? Contact your local congressperson? Your governor? Tucker Carlson? or did you short the market? Purchase lots of essentials?
  142. @dfordoom

    In places like Australia where social controls have already reached the desired draconian pitch, it is expedient for the government to play down the case count in order to sell the measures’ popularity (“See, we’re keeping you safe”).
     
    I don't think so. In Australia COVID really does seem to be a very minor problem. I don't know anyone who's had it, I don't know of anyone who's had it, nobody I know knows anyone who's had it. It really does seem to be completely under control. It seems likely that the Australian government is telling the truth.

    Our governments aren't perfect but compared to the US they're at least reasonably honest.

    And the controls are not that draconian. Where I live people make a token effort at social distancing but are not in the least obsessive about it. It's not a genuine police state the way modern Britain is.

    In Australia it's mostly younger people who are obsessive about the rules. Boomers are mostly very sceptical about the need for the lockdowns.

    Despite the Aussies’ tough approach, horse racing there continues full steam — no fans allowed, but you still need grooms, jockeys, trainers, gate crew and outriders, media etc. Some tracks have most people wearing masks, others not much at all. The jockeys’ room would seem to be a potential danger point, wonder how they’re handling that.

    In contrast US racing is shut down — even in Kentucky — except for Florida, Arkansas and two small rural tracks. Just about everyone (except the jockeys and horses of course) is now wearing masks at these tracks. New Zealand shut it down but Hong Kong, Japan and Singapore are running some cards.

    I know its heading toward fall now Down Under, but have the parks and beaches been open or tightly controlled? E.g. the beaches along the Gold Coast?

  143. @PiltdownMan
    Singapore did the same things, beginning at an earlier point in time. But despite being held up as a model for the world in February and March for contact tracing and isolation, and seemingly getting on top of the problem, the number of new cases in Singapore has been spiraling upwards in April.

    https://www.latimes.com/world-nation/story/2020-04-14/coronavirus-surges-migrant-workers-in-singapore

    https://en.wikipedia.org/api/rest_v1/page/graph/png/2020_coronavirus_pandemic_in_Singapore/0/eafd044852ab4c0b619ff4db5ac0fc2801e97255.png

    Obviously. Flatten the curve is about hospital space. You can’t hide from the virus forever. Australia will have cases rise when they let people back out of their cages.

  144. Anon[560] • Disclaimer says:
    @anon
    What's the poz mean?

    “The poz” originally meant HIV positive, but it seems to have morphed through meaning “faggotness” to “non homosexual but as disgusting as a faggot” to “social justice loving degenerate transphillic globalist cosmopolitan
    Jewish or Jew-adjacent [add additional epithets] qualities.

    This is my personal decoding of the word from its use in context, “descriptive lexicography,” if you will. The Urban Dictionary doesn’t define it properly, and anyone who asks what it means is ignored (until now).

    • Replies: @peterike
    Shorter answer. Poz = Globohomo, and all that goes with it. But Poz is kind of the infectious agent. "Yeah, the Catholic Church really got pozzed." "The entire State Department is pozzed." Like that.
  145. @Clyde
    Actually the Chinese are the real racists here. Surprise! They quarantined Wuhan so that none could could get out of Wuhan to go elsewhere in China ..... But Wuhan residents could still go to the Wuhan International Airport and fly to other nations to infect them.

    The Chicom leadership used the Wu Flu for asymmetrical warfare. They took a virus that escaped from the Wuhan virus lab and they ran with it. Trump was onto this evil shit early, he got good intel, so at least he banned flights direct from China,

    Actually the Chinese are the real racists here. Surprise! They quarantined Wuhan so that none could could get out of Wuhan to go elsewhere in China…But Wuhan residents could still go to the Wuhan International Airport and fly to other nations to infect them.

    Shockingly, the Wikipedia post on the Wuhan lockdown confirms what you say. I say shockingly because I’d have thought the hasbara Chinese brigade would have scrubbed that from the public record. People like “Realist” dropped the ball.

  146. @Kyle
    What is Australia doing right? It’s just the flu bro. It’s a small country with no massive population centers like New York, LA, or Detroit. Obviously covid—19 is going to hit some people hard, especially those with underlying conditions. It’s a Coronavirus that nobody is immune too. But the actual infirmary magnitude of the virus is no worse than the flu. That’s not to say that the flu is no big deal. Anybody who’s had the flu knows that it’s horrible and it makes you feel like death. But we have some level of herd immunity towards the flu, with the vaccines and from people who have developed immunities against it. So there aren’t millions of people who die from it each year.

    “What is Australia doing right?”

    Setting aside the possibility that the Fu Manchu virus is a bio-weapon (which is difficult to do considering the nature of the diabolical Fu Manchu), won’t this virus have a seasonal life-span like all viruses? Hopefully, the Aussies will be spared the fate of the Dagos. But they will still have to contend with their more hideous indigenous threat: the Funnel Web Spider.

  147. https://www.mardigras.org.au/

    https://www.theguardian.com/australia-news/gallery/2020/feb/29/sydney-gay-and-lesbian-mardi-gras-2020-in-pictures

    Hundreds of thousands of people took part in the Sydney 2020 LGBT Mardi Gras. No increase in infections from what amounts to a week long rave with plenty of after-hours fun. Hotel rooms across the city are booked.

    To say Australia took a better plan than others doesnt connect with actual events.

    At the same time I have many friends in China who traveled back and forth to Australia. There are millions of Chinese students who took advantage of the school break to go back home, then returned to Australian major cities.

    I lean much more to, this whole situation is BS than someone making any sense of events that point to something logical.

  148. @Jonathan Mason
    Everything that applies to Australia applies also even more so with New Zealand, who seem to be the world champions of COVID-19 control. Maybe Trump should get Jacinda Adern in on his conference calls for a few tips.

    If I understand correctly the New Zealand government isn’t trying to flatten the curve, the aim is to eradicate the virus. It will be interesting to see if this is indeed possible and the path going forward for NZ vs Australia and others.

  149. @dfordoom

    Advantages of a parliamentary system, much harder for the bureaucracy and courts to undermine the Prime Minister’s directive.
     
    Yes, having a rational workable political system certainly helps. In the US you have a political system that makes your country ungovernable.

    In Australia we also have much much less corruption. So Australian politics attracts a much better class of person compared to US politics.

    Australians are much less religious than Americans and less prone to hysteria.

    Australia also has a rational fully functioning welfare state so we don't have a hostile underclass to the same extent as the US. We don't have a huge homeless problem. And we do make an effort o look after old people.

    We have a rational functioning universal health system that is not riddled with corruption and profiteering.

    We also don't shoot each other as often. Even our cops are not trigger-happy thugs.

    Imagine a country in which government basically works and the grown-ups are in charge and that's Australia. It's not perfect but mostly it works.

    “In the US you have a political system that makes your country ungovernable.”

    Quite true. Ungovernable and susceptible to the predations of chaos-causing billionaires. I am encouraged by the turn towards federalism by certain states. This is a reaction to the incompetent DC response to the Fu Manchu Virus (FMV). I would love to see California, Oregon, and Washington form a political union, divorced from the corrupt DC-NYC nexus. Although, the whiny weenies in Oregon will moan even louder about the Golden State jerks traipsing through their state. Oregon is a place abundant with natural beauty. But its human element is mostly whiny weenies.

  150. UK says:
    @Kyle
    What is Australia doing right? It’s just the flu bro. It’s a small country with no massive population centers like New York, LA, or Detroit. Obviously covid—19 is going to hit some people hard, especially those with underlying conditions. It’s a Coronavirus that nobody is immune too. But the actual infirmary magnitude of the virus is no worse than the flu. That’s not to say that the flu is no big deal. Anybody who’s had the flu knows that it’s horrible and it makes you feel like death. But we have some level of herd immunity towards the flu, with the vaccines and from people who have developed immunities against it. So there aren’t millions of people who die from it each year.

    That’s right. The flu is constantly pushing against its herd immunity limit. It’s R0 goes up at certain times of year due to weather and then goes done again a bit which explains the seasonal pattern. Sometimes other factors like a significant mutation into a strain decreases general immunity enough to cause something newsworthy.

    This is beginning the same journey and will likely come and go in the same way. It looks particularly drastic now though, because it is not limited much by its own past virulence.

    On that note, should the flu vaccine be free and encouraged for everyone yearly as that might reduce flu season, via herd immunity, to almost nothing?

    Interestingly, for years the flu vaccine was only about 10% effective but now, with refinement of how they design it each year, it has reached about 50%.

  151. @Simon Tugmutton
    I'd guess blood-levels of vitamin D. The active form is produced by the action of sunlight on the skin and is critical to the immune system; you can also get it from certain foods. Various studies have shown that healthy levels (40 ng/ml and above) mitigate or even prevent respiratory infections.

    If you have a lot of melanin in your skin, live in relatively high latitudes (e.g. the UK, New York, Chicago) and do not supplement with at least 2000 IU of vitamin D daily, you are a sitting duck for the coronavirus -- as the numbers are showing. Apparently over 80% of American blacks are vitamin D deficient.

    Medical advice to avoid the sun for fear of skin-cancer complicates the picture, of course, and there is widespread deficiency in the whole population. But I'd say that regular barbies on Bondi Beach will do no harm whatever to your chances of surviving the bug.

    One quick follow-up. If it is Vitamin D levels from the sun, would that maybe explain why extensive homeless population (surely rife with co-morbidities themselves) in California, and elsewhere, has not been dropping like flies?

    I’ve been an anti-doomer on this thing, but even I would’ve figured that the homeless were going to be in big trouble. Yet, it does not seem like it has affected them anymore than anyone else.

  152. @res

    Chillens are immune to kungflu. Everybody knows that.
     
    But perhaps not immune to transmitting it.

    If you look at the Kinsa data, school closings seem to be very effective. The incubation period is about 5 days so it takes that long to see the effect of a change in policy.
    https://www.kinsahealth.co/tale-of-two-cities-atypical-illness-trends-for-santa-clara-and-miami-dade-county/

    https://www.kinsahealth.co/wp-content/uploads/2020/03/Santa-Clara-and-Miami-Dade-County-Share-of-Population-with-Flu-Like-Illness-1.png

    How accurate is Kinsa’s data?

    Some number, i.e. a million, Americans have a Kinsa smart thermometer, right? Does Kinsa just look at the percent of smart thermometer readings that turn out feverish?

    If so then a bunch of panicked healthy people taking their temperature every day would drive fevers down to near zero, right? Normally healthy people wouldn’t take their temperature, but during a COVID-19 panic, I can see healthy people taking their temperatures often.

    Does it really make sense that in the span of just ten days, America’s health just suddenly became nearly perfect? COVID cases and deaths kept on rising during that span.

    My theory is that healthy Americans, made anxious by the media, took their temperatures often and drove the fever averages way down.

    Can anyone help explain this?

    • Replies: @res
    See my response to your comment 139.
    https://www.unz.com/isteve/what-is-australia-doing-right/#comment-3844483
  153. @Anon
    Venturing some guesses: UV sunlight might be harder on the virus itself when coughed out or exhaled. The virus probably has a shorter lifespan on surfaces outside in the sun. The warmer weather also might slow some of the viruses' life-processes. None of that could be true, or all if it could be. This is not a guess however:

    Carjackings in Memphis have doubled. A mask and gloves (no prints) being allowed, and less witnesses on the street, have unleashed the underground economy's "animal spirits" in a bad way.

    Maybe we should have indoor UV lighting in the stores.

  154. @obwandiyag
    You are exactly right and you can tell you are by the confused bewilderment of the trolls on your tail.

    Haw…ha-Haw-ha.

  155. Australia just finished Summer with maximum sunshine which means maximum Vitamin D levels in the population. Vitamin D is critical for immune function.

  156. @res
    https://www.newscientist.com/article/2240226-australia-seems-to-be-keeping-a-lid-on-covid-19-how-is-it-doing-it/

    Australia’s response to the pandemic has largely centred on shutting its borders, limiting public gatherings and conducting large-scale testing and contact tracing.

    Travelling overseas is banned, foreigners aren’t allowed to enter the country, and Australians who return from other countries are kept in mandatory quarantine at specially designated hotels for two weeks.

    Social gatherings of more than two people are also forbidden and leaving the house is permitted only for essential reasons like buying food and exercising.

    Australia has so far tested more than 310,000 people for covid-19. When someone tests positive, their close contacts are tracked down and ordered to self-isolate for two weeks.

    The main reason for Australia’s success is probably its strict travel restrictions, says Adam Kamradt-Scott at the University of Sydney. About 70 per cent of Australians who have tested positive for covid-19 picked it up while they were overseas, making it important to stem this flow, he says, and being an island nation has made it easier for Australia to rapidly shut its borders.

    Social distancing, testing and contact tracing have added to the success of travel bans, says Kamradt-Scott. Plus, there may be cultural factors that have limited the spread of the virus, like the fact that most Australians choose to live in separate dwellings rather than apartment buildings and older people who require care tend to live in care homes rather than with their families, he says.

    Unlike many other countries, Australia has kept schools open, but they don’t appear to have been drivers of virus spread so far, says Kathryn Snow at the University of Melbourne.

     

    Schools still being open there is an interesting data point.

    axander’s response is now comment 55 and worth reading. Direct link:
    https://www.unz.com/isteve/what-is-australia-doing-right/#comment-3842513

  157. @vhrm
    Huh. for all the times I've looked at Kinsa's site, i never actually entered a location in their map tool until now.

    It appears that when you do (zip or county name) it shows their "illness" over time graph for the county "and its surroundings" (not sure how wide).

    e.g Kings County, ny (aka Brooklyn)

    https://healthweather.us/?regionId=36047&mode=Observed

    (it won't embed because they're dynamic widgets)

    All this time i thought they were hiding the data and only showing select ones in their blog posts. duh.

    Huh. for all the times I’ve looked at Kinsa’s site, i never actually entered a location in their map tool until now.

    It took me a while to figure that out as well.

    I wish they allowed aggregating by state.

  158. Australia is surrounded by competent East Asian countries that have helped contain the virus.

    If you were to put the same people in Europe or God forbid America they would have had the same abysmal white infection control performance.

    • Replies: @Callmeal
    What is “white infection control”?
    , @Dave from Oz

    Australia is surrounded by competent East Asian countries that have helped contain the virus
     
    Indonesia? Seriously? Indonesia has the highest 'rona death toll outside China. Australia isn't surrounded by competent east asian countries - it's surrounded by sea. Girt, in fact. It's right there in the national anthem.
  159. Australia’s flu season starts in a couple of months. “Will Australia experience a resurgence of CVID-19 during their 2020 flu season?” is a Metaculus question open for predictions. Predict away.

    • Replies: @Hail
    It's a tough call but I predict Australia will have a flu season, including some deaths among the elderly and those with serious health problems.
  160. @vhrm
    NYC "stay-at-home" order went into effect Mar 20th 2020 8pm. So we'll call it 21st.
    That's 7 days after the peak in that illness graph. same for Queens County

    So just like in Florida and in the Bay Area, CA flu like illnesses were already dropping significantly by the time it went into effect. And in this graph it can be seen that there slope was already more negative than the "expected" line by that time.

    And this is without accounting for incubation periods, ~2 avg for fly according to the web and 5 for Covid-19, but who really knows.

    My claim is therefore again that the curve was already bent well before the shelter-in-place/shutdown order and this supports that they were unnecessary.

    I’m out of Agrees, so I agree.

    I’ve talked about that a fair bit if you search my comments for Kinsa. The 5 day estimate seems to hold up pretty well. This comment and the one 2 replies upthread from it are probably the most informative.

    https://www.unz.com/anepigone/conflusion/#comment-3837508

    • Thanks: vhrm
  161. I’m out of Agrees, so I agree.

    Are those found in the personal hygiene aisle? Has there been a run on them, too?

    • LOL: res
    • Replies: @dfordoom


    I’m out of Agrees, so I agree.
     
    Are those found in the personal hygiene aisle? Has there been a run on them, too?
     
    Ron Unz has instituted a rationing system. He's not going to have us hoarding Agrees. Or stripping the shelves of Agrees and then selling them at a profit.
  162. Why is the news not reporting british deaths like they were for chinese, italian, and spain

  163. Australians have been getting enough Vitamin D, it protects them from contracting CV.
    March is the last month of the summer for them , so they have been getting significant Vitamin D from the sun. Most New Yorkers , especially those with darker skin, have very low levels of Vitamin D in March. The winters in NY lack the required sunlight to obtain the adequate vitamin D.

    This is the same reason CV deaths will fall in Summer here in the United States, as Americans get more vitamin D from the summer sun.

    • Agree: Dutch Boy
  164. @Anon
    "The poz" originally meant HIV positive, but it seems to have morphed through meaning "faggotness" to "non homosexual but as disgusting as a faggot" to "social justice loving degenerate transphillic globalist cosmopolitan
    Jewish or Jew-adjacent [add additional epithets] qualities.

    This is my personal decoding of the word from its use in context, "descriptive lexicography," if you will. The Urban Dictionary doesn't define it properly, and anyone who asks what it means is ignored (until now).

    Shorter answer. Poz = Globohomo, and all that goes with it. But Poz is kind of the infectious agent. “Yeah, the Catholic Church really got pozzed.” “The entire State Department is pozzed.” Like that.

  165. @Polynikes
    I’d guess weather. If you took all our states below the Mason dixon line, the results would look similarly good. That includes the hard hit New Orleans and Arkansas, where they’ve taken almost no measures at all.

    states below the Mason dixon line

    The equivalent for the world seems to be 18 degree North latitude. Generally, most of the hell seems to be above and relative peace below this magic line.

  166. @Steve Sailer
    What happens to old people in Australia?

    >>What happens to old people in Australia?<<

    Dingos. Mmmm… tasty boomers ….mmm.

  167. @Anon
    Wanting to hit the supermarkets at a non busy time I checked out the Google Maps feature where they show a bar graph of the shop hours and the number of people in the store, including a live bar for the current hour.

    I had unconsciously assumed that the stores reported the data. But of course that's not the case ... Android users with location enabled are unthinking enabling these graphs.

    Which made me think, are hip iPhone heavy neighborhoods underreported? Neighborhoods with lots of smartphone-free seniors?

    >>Neighborhoods with lots of smartphone-free seniors?<<

    What country do you live in? Every senior I know, including me and my wife, have long had smart phones. That being said, we barely know how to use most of it, but still…

  168. @Hail
    A recent update from Dr Knut Wittkowski (written I think on April 15):

    [The] epidemic curves...are declining, as I predicted, including in most European and North-American countries, irrespective of whether social distancing was imposed on their citizens and, if so, when and how.

    Hence, there is no evidence that social distancing had an effect that could justify shutting the economy down, causing >22M people to lose their jobs, and spending trillions of dollars on mere band aids.

    My conclusion that this epidemic is very similar to other flu epidemics, and, thus needs no hurtful interventions, was obviously correct.
     
    On Singapore, writing April 16:

    [T]here is a recent spike in Singapore. If it's the same virus (as one might expect), I hope the Government in Singapore is not making the same mistakes as many others and driving the economy against the wall.

    As we have learned now, over and over again, this flu is a flu. Protect the elderly and vulnerable; otherwise let it run its course and (if it's not just one of the many reporting artifact we have seen) it will be over in three weeks, tops (Turgidson 1964).
     
    Let us commend all who Honor the Truth, including when it is against the mob.

    Hmmm… I like what he’s saying overall, but there are some aspects that are not necessarily convincing. For example he says (in the 1st video) that it’s over in China and Korea because it burned out, but that’s only true for Wuhan and whatever that Korean City was.

    But it IS interesting to consider that Wuhan’s “advantage” was that they _didn’t_ shut down early and this possibly had a practically unmitigated run of it.

    In any case the part about protecting seniors while keeping the schools open so it quickly burns through the young population in a few weeks seems like a good idea.

    We’ve closed the senior communities and nursing homes ANYWAY, so we might as well let it run through everyone else so we can open them again.

    Makes more sense than what we’re doing now…

    • Agree: Clyde
  169. @dfordoom

    Advantages of a parliamentary system, much harder for the bureaucracy and courts to undermine the Prime Minister’s directive.
     
    Yes, having a rational workable political system certainly helps. In the US you have a political system that makes your country ungovernable.

    In Australia we also have much much less corruption. So Australian politics attracts a much better class of person compared to US politics.

    Australians are much less religious than Americans and less prone to hysteria.

    Australia also has a rational fully functioning welfare state so we don't have a hostile underclass to the same extent as the US. We don't have a huge homeless problem. And we do make an effort o look after old people.

    We have a rational functioning universal health system that is not riddled with corruption and profiteering.

    We also don't shoot each other as often. Even our cops are not trigger-happy thugs.

    Imagine a country in which government basically works and the grown-ups are in charge and that's Australia. It's not perfect but mostly it works.

    >>Imagine a country in which government basically works and the grown-ups are in charge and that’s Australia. It’s not perfect but mostly it works.<<

    Yes, "grown ups" who disarm their citizens because, you know, otherwise they'll act like children. Or Americans.

    Now of course the Triads and bikie gangs (that's motorcycle clubs for you Yanks) are not so unarmed, but we all have our wishful thinking caps.

    Yes, Oz is a great place, I'd like to visit before I die.

    On the other hand, if the Nipponese or Chinese decide to come visit in force, and stay (again, in one case) Aussies will soon be hunting 'roos and wombats for food. Or working in the slave labor camps. Mother England can't/won't help them. It will be left up to the barbarian Americanos again. *Sigh*

    Or we could just send Mel Gibson back…

    • Replies: @Kratoklastes

    if the Nipponese or Chinese decide to come visit in force, and stay
     
    The Nips would have to rapidly assemble more than a dozen people of prime adult age, which would be a struggle.

    The Chinks have observed reality and know that trying to steal resources by military conquest is a very fucking bad idea... it impoverishes everyone except the ruling class and their cronies. (The Yanks know this too - but the US ruling class has no qualms about impoverishing US proles).

    Straya is mostly interesting (as a target) because of its reasonably-abundant types of useful dirt (and stuff you find under dirt): bauxite, iron ore, tin, copper, uranium, coal, oil, gas and gold, in relative abundance. Diamonds, too, if those are still meaningful (they're not - prices are kept artificially high by marketing aimed at stupid women plus a global cartel much more organised than OPEC).

    Straya is reasonably efficient at digging up this interesting dirt&c., and putting it on big boats that traverse the seas at speeds greater than Usain Bolt's intra-race peak.

    Mining is very capital intensive: Rio Tinto has its own 1000-mile network of completely self-driving trains to bring the useful dirt to ports.

    Trying to get the same thing done by military occupation would drive the price of all types of dirt skywards - which seems a bit self defeating.

    If the Chinks wanted to take Straya they certainly have the manpower - but since Australia is an open economy, it would make far more sense to buy what they need on the open market, where prices reflect the cost structure associated with the most-efficient production process.

    .

    On the private-sector side, some wealthy Chinks have bought property in Straya (not many, and not much property - but enough for people to notice).

    Turns out that's also the best way to obtain lebensraum if the target-dirt has a populace capable of resistance (the Abos did a terrible job of that when it was their turn... they didn't 'get' 4G conflict because they didn't 'do' organised violence very well).

    , @dfordoom

    Yes, "grown ups" who disarm their citizens because, you know, otherwise they'll act like children. Or Americans.
     
    Actually that's precisely the thinking and it's correct. We don't want Australia turned into the US. We have this weird idea that people constantly shooting each other is a bad thing. In the US it's apparently considered a good thing.

    Australians don't need guns to feel good about themselves.
  170. @dfordoom

    Advantages of a parliamentary system, much harder for the bureaucracy and courts to undermine the Prime Minister’s directive.
     
    Yes, having a rational workable political system certainly helps. In the US you have a political system that makes your country ungovernable.

    In Australia we also have much much less corruption. So Australian politics attracts a much better class of person compared to US politics.

    Australians are much less religious than Americans and less prone to hysteria.

    Australia also has a rational fully functioning welfare state so we don't have a hostile underclass to the same extent as the US. We don't have a huge homeless problem. And we do make an effort o look after old people.

    We have a rational functioning universal health system that is not riddled with corruption and profiteering.

    We also don't shoot each other as often. Even our cops are not trigger-happy thugs.

    Imagine a country in which government basically works and the grown-ups are in charge and that's Australia. It's not perfect but mostly it works.

    Yes, having a rational workable political system certainly helps. In the US you have a political system that makes your country ungovernable.

    Australia: ‘Coup capital of the democratic world’

    With five prime ministers in as many years [2015], Canberra has solidified its reputation as the coup capital of the democratic world.

    …It is now over a decade since an Australian prime minister managed to serve out his or her first term.

    …Covering Australian politics feels more like conducting a triage of the wounded and slain. The bloodletting has become so brutal that party rooms have come to resemble abattoirs.

    Were a movie to be made of Australian politics over the past decade it would have to be X-rated, and, as I have said before, be directed by Quentin Tarantino…

    https://www.bbc.com/news/world-australia-34249214

    Sort of conforms to my observation visiting relatives a few years back. Couldn’t watch the news after a while – the level of petty, partisan bickering was off the charts. So much so, I recall a discussion with my hosts as to why Australia stood out so much this way (pre-Trump era, mind you)

    Reporter: ‘Lovely day today, isn’t it?’

    Pol: ‘Well, Wally, it might seem that way, were it not for the blinding incompetence of this government/opposition….blah blah blah…’

    Absolutely relentless, it was. Has everyone put it aside and come together these days?

    • Replies: @dfordoom
    You're missing an important point. In a parliamentary democracy prime ministers might come and go but the business of government goes on with little or no interruption. Prime ministers in a parliamentary democracy are not like US presidents (who are more like elected monarchs).
  171. @dfordoom

    Advantages of a parliamentary system, much harder for the bureaucracy and courts to undermine the Prime Minister’s directive.
     
    Yes, having a rational workable political system certainly helps. In the US you have a political system that makes your country ungovernable.

    In Australia we also have much much less corruption. So Australian politics attracts a much better class of person compared to US politics.

    Australians are much less religious than Americans and less prone to hysteria.

    Australia also has a rational fully functioning welfare state so we don't have a hostile underclass to the same extent as the US. We don't have a huge homeless problem. And we do make an effort o look after old people.

    We have a rational functioning universal health system that is not riddled with corruption and profiteering.

    We also don't shoot each other as often. Even our cops are not trigger-happy thugs.

    Imagine a country in which government basically works and the grown-ups are in charge and that's Australia. It's not perfect but mostly it works.

    Yet people still immigrate to America in large numbers. (That’s a sad fact, not a credit to America. It merely means the cultures the immigrants come from are so crappy and dysfunctional even America looks tempting.)

    I personally wish Australia, New Zealand, Canada, the United Kingdom, and Ireland would absorb all future immigration bound for the US. It would do both the potential future immigrants, and us Americans, a lot of good.

    Let us Americans enjoy a quiet decay among (or amongst?) ourselves. I can better tolerate dysfunction within my own kind, because I know their ways.

    • Replies: @dfordoom

    Yet people still immigrate to America in large numbers. (That’s a sad fact, not a credit to America. It merely means the cultures the immigrants come from are so crappy and dysfunctional even America looks tempting.)
     
    They're tempted by the lure of money. No-one on the planet believes the US is a functional society.
  172. Hail says: • Website
    @utu
    "The opinions that have been expressed by Knut Wittkowski, discouraging social distancing in order to hasten the development of herd immunity to the novel coronavirus, do not represent the views of The Rockefeller University, its leadership, or its faculty.

    Wittkowski was previously employed by Rockefeller as a biostatistician. He has never held the title of professor at Rockefeller." - April 13, 2020, The Rockefeller University
    https://www.rockefeller.edu/news/27872-rockefeller-university-releases-statement-concerning-dr-knut-wittkowski/

    Wittkowski was previously employed by Rockefeller as a biostatistician. He has never held the title of professor at Rockefeller.” – April 13, 2020

    Nice try, utu, but “He has never been a professor at Rockefeller” is weak.

    Reposting from the James Thomspon thread:

    _________________

    Here is Knut Wittkowski addressing the pro-CoronaPanic side’s misdirectionist maneuver on saying he was technically not a professor at Rockefeller (but was a professor elsewhere). He was only the Head of the Department of Biostatistics, Epidemiology, and Research Design!

    [April 15]

    I had a scientific career even before coming to New York. My field is Medical Biometry, the application of mathematical methods and models to the biosciences and, but modeling the HIV epidemic, while at the University of Tübingen, Germany, I predicted in the early 1990s that the HIV epidemic would never spread within the European heterosexual population. Look it up!

    However, the main point here is that The Rockefeller University (RU) is intentionally spreading misinformation.

    I have informed RU yesterday that they are misquoting me. As they still do it, it must be intentional […]

    And this by Wittkowski:

    I don’t understand why some people (and institutions) create a smokescreen by raising formal criteria rather than address the issues at hand (which I consider more important), but if I have to I will engage in that sidetrack as well. I have informed The Rockefeller University (RU) on April 14 that they are misquoting me. As they still do it, it must be intentional, so let me set this straight:

    (1) I am not “discouraging social distancing” (breaking the law). I’m asking people to discuss the policy decisions made with their representatives. This are two very different things. Why is RU against an informed democratic discourse between voters and their representatives? (In Europe, some of that discussion took place and restrictions are beginning to be removed. For instance, the German Academy of Science has recommended opening schools as soon as possible, as I had before.)

    (2) I have never claimed to have “held the title of a professor at Rockefeller”. Just see the beginning of the video for what I claimed and my LinkedIn page for my academic career before I came to RU. (I’ve also never claimed to be a Martian, which would be equally ridiculous to accuse me of.)

    I would understand substantive criticism for having having erred in predicted this epidemic curves to decline soon – but (unfortunately?) they are declining, as I predicted, including in most European and North-American countries, irrespective of whether social distancing was imposed on their citizens and, if so, when and how. Hence, there is no evidence that social distancing had an effect that could justify shutting the economy down, causing >22M people to lose their jobs, and spending trillions of dollars on mere band aids. My conclusion that this epidemic is very similar to other flu epidemics, and, thus needs no hurtful interventions, was obviously correct.

    Criticizing people for something they never said, however, is polemic. What are the interests that drive RU to resort to polemic?

  173. @James Bowery
    Australia's flu season starts in a couple of months. "Will Australia experience a resurgence of CVID-19 during their 2020 flu season?" is a Metaculus question open for predictions. Predict away.

    It’s a tough call but I predict Australia will have a flu season, including some deaths among the elderly and those with serious health problems.

    • Replies: @Kratoklastes

    It’s a tough call but I predict Australia will have a flu season, including some deaths among the elderly and those with serious health problems.
     
    I can see you are a man of science (KEK).

    We can confidently add: when this happens, the media will not mention the deaths.

    Media-driven Flu hysteria only ever happens during the Northern (Lower) Hemisphere winter; when it's time for actual winter in the Upper Hemisphere, the media hard-sells flu vaccine for about two weeks in the leadup (pharma cannot advertise direct-to-consumer here). Silence thereafter.

    SARS (2003) is a prime example, as is H1N1 ('swine flu' - 2009) and H5N1 ('bird flu/avian flu/grippe aviare' - 2014): in each case, we had our media frenzy at the same time as the Yanks, and there was not so much as a peep during the Southern Hemisphere flu season.
  174. •[Crikey!]: adreadline

    Hoping you get your job back soon!

    Also, so to not make this post useless, one can say the American South is doing comparatively well next to the North, but one would have to exclude Louisiana (as mentioned), and likely Georgia (could be justified because of the superspreader funeral and Hartsfield), and Maryland (because next to DC, also rather to the north despite being south of the line), and possibly soon Florida (because of Miami and fleeing New Yorkers, I guess)… the only state that is doing relatively, even surprisingly well and that attracts a very significant number of travelers and immigrants alike (as in, not really states like Missouri or Alabama, not that there’s anything wrong with that!), relative to the size of its population, is Texas, from my interpretation. My layman’s suspicion is that climate is not a major factor at all.

  175. @Tor597
    Australia is surrounded by competent East Asian countries that have helped contain the virus.

    If you were to put the same people in Europe or God forbid America they would have had the same abysmal white infection control performance.

    What is “white infection control”?

  176. @Mobi
    Only one subway line in all of Australasia.

    Literally, a single line in Sydney (13 stops, open just one year).

    New Zealand is doing even better.

    Melbourne has a reasonably large underground ‘loop’ that goes under the CBD – the ‘City Loop'[1]. It’s only 6 stops, but it has feeder routes that carry people from a radial network that’s one of the largest in the Southern Hemisphere.

    And during rush hour, trains and trams (the tram network goes about 2/3rds as far as the trains) are absolutely packed – not ‘Japanese trains in the 80s’ packed, but still pretty bad.

    It’s not population density; it’s not a slightly-healthier population than Yankistan; it’s not lockdowns; it’s fucking TEMPERATURE.
    As you would expect for a flu-like coronavirus: propagates better when temps and humidity are low.

    If this thing was worth worrying about[2], our political class’ slavish aping of the Yanks and Poms would be a very bad idea… selling the national tiger repelling banana[3] just before tiger season, just to get try and get mentioned in a tweet from #OrangeManBad.

    We get our flu season in winter, just like you sissies on the bottom of the planet. People are slightly immunocompromised in winter – lower VitD etc. Our winter is at the correct position in the year – i.e., late June(ish) to late September.

    Also: the US sick-people-exploiting system is clearly the most expensive possible way to get sub-standard ‘health-care’. The UK NHS is not all that much better.

    [1] We used to name things very descriptively – ‘Great Sandy Desert’, ‘Snowy Mountains’, ‘Western Australia’, ‘Great Ocean Road’.

    [2] It’s not though. It’s a nasty-ish respiratory bug that kills very old, very unwell people. For the rest of the population, the excess risk is so near zero that it makes no odds. We will confirm this once all mortality data by age group is available.

    [3] Australia has loads of bananas, one of which I suspect protects us from tigers. Evidence: no tigers outside zoos; no bananas inside tiger cages.

    That is the same evidentiary basis as ‘lockdowns work’.

    • Replies: @Anonymous
    https://info.flutracking.net/reports-2/australia-reports/

    Look at recent week report. Flu is down to a very low level for time of year. What we are doing is working for flu at least. It's not just temperature as some contend.
  177. It’s not density; it’s not lockdowns; it’s fucking TEMPERATURE.

    Also atheism.

    Proof: do a cross-country correlation of Avramic religiosity with deaths.

    Let ‘religious’ == ‘believes in a specific foreskin-loving Sky Maniac made up during the late Bronze Age‘.

    Then notice

    Old people: religious.

    Americans: religious.

    Italians: religious.

    Iranians: religious.

    Hasidim: religious

    Indonesians: religious

    Australians, Kiwis, Scandos, Chinks, Singaporeans, young people… nowhere near as religious.

    Additional proof (as if any were needed!): a bunch of religious peak predators have claimed that Yahweh invented covid19, and then Yahweh has give them a dose as a cautionary ‘smite’ (and a hint that death by irony is something to take seriously).

    • LOL: vhrm
  178. @utu
    Do you have a source? Some foreigners were evacuated form Wuhan on chartered flights, iirc.

    Do you have a source? Some foreigners were evacuated form Wuhan on chartered flights, iirc.

    This has been all over Fox News for 48 hours. Sean Hannity, Tucker Carlson, with Bret Baier breaking it with his sources.

    That China let (Encouraged?) Wuhan residents to fly out internationally, while quarantining them from travel within China. How to spread the Kung-Flu across the world.

  179. @dfordoom

    Advantages of a parliamentary system, much harder for the bureaucracy and courts to undermine the Prime Minister’s directive.
     
    Yes, having a rational workable political system certainly helps. In the US you have a political system that makes your country ungovernable.

    In Australia we also have much much less corruption. So Australian politics attracts a much better class of person compared to US politics.

    Australians are much less religious than Americans and less prone to hysteria.

    Australia also has a rational fully functioning welfare state so we don't have a hostile underclass to the same extent as the US. We don't have a huge homeless problem. And we do make an effort o look after old people.

    We have a rational functioning universal health system that is not riddled with corruption and profiteering.

    We also don't shoot each other as often. Even our cops are not trigger-happy thugs.

    Imagine a country in which government basically works and the grown-ups are in charge and that's Australia. It's not perfect but mostly it works.


    Australia also has a rational fully functioning welfare state so we don’t have a hostile underclass to the same extent as the US. We don’t have a huge homeless problem. And we do make an effort o look after old people.

    We have a rational functioning universal health system that is not riddled with corruption and profiteering.

    We also don’t shoot each other as often. Even our cops are not trigger-happy thugs.

    Imagine a country in which government basically works and the grown-ups are in charge and that’s Australia. It’s not perfect but mostly it works.

    Blah, blah, blah, blah, blah, …

    Dude, you don’t have a “legacy of slavery” so of course a bunch of stuff works better.

    In the 2016 Australian census, the most commonly nominated ancestries were:
    English (36.1%)
    Australian (33.5%)
    Irish (11.0%)
    Scottish (9.3%)
    Chinese (5.6%)
    Italian (4.6%)
    German (4.5%)
    Indian (2.8%)
    Indigenous (2.8%)
    Greek (1.8%)
    Dutch (1.6%)
    Filipino (1.4%)
    Vietnamese (1.4%)
    Lebanese (1%)

    And yet, you’ve fully imbibed the minoritarian ideology our “American” “elites” push out and you are hard at work pissing your fantastic legacy away with immigration.

    • Replies: @dfordoom

    And yet, you’ve fully imbibed the minoritarian ideology our “American” “elites” push out and you are hard at work pissing your fantastic legacy away with immigration.
     
    The US has certainly been a destructive and pernicious influence on Australia (and on the entire world). But Australia has not bought into it entirely. That's why we have a chance of survival.
    , @dfordoom

    Dude, you don’t have a “legacy of slavery” so of course a bunch of stuff works better.
     
    True. But more importantly we don't have a legacy of Puritanism. Puritanism may be the biggest single reason the US ended up as a failed society. American politics/ideology is formed by a mixture of mutant Puritanism and reactions against Puritanism.

    Australia was fortunate not to get the religious fanatics that the US got. We can be very thankful that the Mayflower headed for the America and not Australia.
  180. @Stebbing Heuer
    Yep.

    As I said in a comment here the other day: the US is a third world country. Literally Upper Volta with rockets.

    As I said in a comment here the other day: the US is a third world country. Literally Upper Volta with rockets.

    Oh please. Upper Volta?

    No. We are slumping toward being Brazil … with rockets. And still have a long way to go on that.

    • Replies: @PiltdownMan

    We are slumping toward being Brazil … with rockets.
     
    Brazil with rockets is ... Brazil.

    https://i.imgur.com/k9ul4qv.jpg

  181. @Federalist
    Starting at about 26:30 he explains how social distancing/shelter in place delays herd immunity which leads to MORE DEATHS.

    But nobody who pushed the shutdown (including Steve) wants to even discuss this possibility.

    Certainly getting all the kiddies infected and with immunity would be huge.

    Although they now say that the kids fight off the virus before building antibodies. But that would also suggest they are naturally immune in the first place. And could never become spreaders (as they normally are). If kids fight off the virus “before” infection, does that mean they don’t actually shed virus which is spread to others?

    That would be a nice piece of information. Not only could you keep the schools open, but the kiddies could still visit grandma and grandpa without worrying about possibly killing them.

  182. @Muggles
    >>Imagine a country in which government basically works and the grown-ups are in charge and that’s Australia. It’s not perfect but mostly it works.<<

    Yes, "grown ups" who disarm their citizens because, you know, otherwise they'll act like children. Or Americans.

    Now of course the Triads and bikie gangs (that's motorcycle clubs for you Yanks) are not so unarmed, but we all have our wishful thinking caps.

    Yes, Oz is a great place, I'd like to visit before I die.

    On the other hand, if the Nipponese or Chinese decide to come visit in force, and stay (again, in one case) Aussies will soon be hunting 'roos and wombats for food. Or working in the slave labor camps. Mother England can't/won't help them. It will be left up to the barbarian Americanos again. *Sigh*

    Or we could just send Mel Gibson back...

    if the Nipponese or Chinese decide to come visit in force, and stay

    The Nips would have to rapidly assemble more than a dozen people of prime adult age, which would be a struggle.

    The Chinks have observed reality and know that trying to steal resources by military conquest is a very fucking bad idea… it impoverishes everyone except the ruling class and their cronies. (The Yanks know this too – but the US ruling class has no qualms about impoverishing US proles).

    Straya is mostly interesting (as a target) because of its reasonably-abundant types of useful dirt (and stuff you find under dirt): bauxite, iron ore, tin, copper, uranium, coal, oil, gas and gold, in relative abundance. Diamonds, too, if those are still meaningful (they’re not – prices are kept artificially high by marketing aimed at stupid women plus a global cartel much more organised than OPEC).

    Straya is reasonably efficient at digging up this interesting dirt&c., and putting it on big boats that traverse the seas at speeds greater than Usain Bolt’s intra-race peak.

    Mining is very capital intensive: Rio Tinto has its own 1000-mile network of completely self-driving trains to bring the useful dirt to ports.

    Trying to get the same thing done by military occupation would drive the price of all types of dirt skywards – which seems a bit self defeating.

    If the Chinks wanted to take Straya they certainly have the manpower – but since Australia is an open economy, it would make far more sense to buy what they need on the open market, where prices reflect the cost structure associated with the most-efficient production process.

    .

    On the private-sector side, some wealthy Chinks have bought property in Straya (not many, and not much property – but enough for people to notice).

    Turns out that’s also the best way to obtain lebensraum if the target-dirt has a populace capable of resistance (the Abos did a terrible job of that when it was their turn… they didn’t ‘get’ 4G conflict because they didn’t ‘do’ organised violence very well).

  183. @AnotherDad


    The Chicom leadership used the Wu Flu for asymmetrical warfare. They took a virus that escaped from the Wuhan virus lab and they ran with it. Trump was onto this evil shit early, he got good intel, so at least he banned flights direct from China.
     
    Trump was dogmeat slow.

    Personal annecdote:
    We had a family trip to middle east--booked for a couple months--launching on Feb 2, (Targeting short break in my daughter's med school rotations.)

    The prior two weeks, i'd been back and forth on going. Will this thing explode while we're out? We will be able to get back? Will we end up in quarantine upon return? Or end up quarantined and stranded in Israel or Egypt or Germany? AnotherMom and I were congratulating our luck that we hadn't gone through Asia--a few options we'd kicked around last fall. But even going through Europe seemed risky. I did the math and at the *personal* level the risk was low. I went ahead and rolled the dice.

    Got to SeaTac and our Lufthansa flight is between an AirChina flight to Beijing and a flight to Korea. Presumably planes that had come in and dumped hordes of people into the US.

    Trump's "China travel ban" apparently didn't even start until that evening. And only applied to foreigners who had been to China. And didn't apply to foreigners who were family members of American citizens! American airlines--United, Delta, American--began shutting down their flights. But there still wasn't any actual "China travel ban".

    People could still travel to China and Americans--like Chinese Americans visiting their families--could go there and come back on through March and into April!

    ~~

    I'm reasonably intelligent but otherwise an ordinary citizen--no special "intel"--but it was crystal clear that China had failed and i was thinking we'll have global pandemic and was worried about my family's personal risk even going through Europe by mid-January.

    China travel should have been shut down by early January--probably earlier--depending on intel. Followed in short order by shutting down all travel and shuttering the US's borders. This would have cut starting cases in the US by several orders of magnitude. At minimum we'd be a few weeks behind where we are in cases/deaths. And maybe enough that the CDC's testing debacle could have been fixed in time accurately test and track cases in the US. Life in the US could have been more relaxed while we watched the rest of world's response. Maybe--unlikely but possible--we could have swatted all the cases with quarantines and been a national oasis of normalcy. (Oh how our elites would have hated that.)

    Trump's response was lame and weak. It only looks good--as with all things Trump--by comparison with Democrats who were doing "racism!", "hug a Chinese person", "got to the Chinese New Year's Parade or else the Nazis have won". (I.e. their usual nasty work, driven by their nasty minoritarian ideology.)

    To be fair to Trump, he's dealing with an entire "elite" imbued with minoritarian-globalist ideology--hostile to protecting the interests of Americans. So Trump gets mediocre to terrible advice and has to figure stuff out on his own and then fight through this evil "elite". Unfortunately for all the bluster ... Trump is just not all that great at figuring stuff out and pushing that rock uphill.

    “I’m reasonably intelligent but otherwise an ordinary citizen–no special “intel”–but it was crystal clear that China had failed and i was thinking we’ll have global pandemic and was worried about my family’s personal risk even going through Europe by mid-January.”

    Did you shout this from the mountaintops? Contact your local congressperson? Your governor? Tucker Carlson? or did you short the market? Purchase lots of essentials?

    • Replies: @JMcG
    I’m not Another Dad, but I converted all my stocks into cash and bonds, bought a buttload of masks and hand sanitizers, put away a half ton of non perishable food and some other stuff. Not any point at all in contacting a member of government. Even my Fortune 500 company, which is nominally motivated by profit, had not a clue about what could transpire.
  184. OT:

    The Physics genius Stephen Wolfram has just come out with a serious “Theory of Everything.” This is apparently the real deal.

    • Replies: @Steve Sailer
    Too bad Wolfram's Theory of Everything didn't predict when would be a good time to release his Theory of Everything to maximize public attention.
    , @another fred

    The Physics genius Stephen Wolfram has just come out with a serious “Theory of Everything.” This is apparently the real deal.
     
    I read a bit of what he wrote. It looks more to me like an hypothesis for an approach that might lead to a theory of everything - some day.

    Not to say it is dumb. Basically he thinks that at the base of physical reality there should be a few simple rules that create the complexity we see. Seems reasonable to me.

    https://writings.stephenwolfram.com/2020/04/finally-we-may-have-a-path-to-the-fundamental-theory-of-physics-and-its-beautiful/?fbclid=IwAR1n4lMomBpqNPO8PzrHp_ktAs6JAq74W30NQyEkHzUfHqUpbBuiOhbf5Io

  185. @Hail
    It's a tough call but I predict Australia will have a flu season, including some deaths among the elderly and those with serious health problems.

    It’s a tough call but I predict Australia will have a flu season, including some deaths among the elderly and those with serious health problems.

    I can see you are a man of science (KEK).

    We can confidently add: when this happens, the media will not mention the deaths.

    Media-driven Flu hysteria only ever happens during the Northern (Lower) Hemisphere winter; when it’s time for actual winter in the Upper Hemisphere, the media hard-sells flu vaccine for about two weeks in the leadup (pharma cannot advertise direct-to-consumer here). Silence thereafter.

    SARS (2003) is a prime example, as is H1N1 (‘swine flu’ – 2009) and H5N1 (‘bird flu/avian flu/grippe aviare‘ – 2014): in each case, we had our media frenzy at the same time as the Yanks, and there was not so much as a peep during the Southern Hemisphere flu season.

  186. @Hail
    A recent update from Dr Knut Wittkowski (written I think on April 15):

    [The] epidemic curves...are declining, as I predicted, including in most European and North-American countries, irrespective of whether social distancing was imposed on their citizens and, if so, when and how.

    Hence, there is no evidence that social distancing had an effect that could justify shutting the economy down, causing >22M people to lose their jobs, and spending trillions of dollars on mere band aids.

    My conclusion that this epidemic is very similar to other flu epidemics, and, thus needs no hurtful interventions, was obviously correct.
     
    On Singapore, writing April 16:

    [T]here is a recent spike in Singapore. If it's the same virus (as one might expect), I hope the Government in Singapore is not making the same mistakes as many others and driving the economy against the wall.

    As we have learned now, over and over again, this flu is a flu. Protect the elderly and vulnerable; otherwise let it run its course and (if it's not just one of the many reporting artifact we have seen) it will be over in three weeks, tops (Turgidson 1964).
     
    Let us commend all who Honor the Truth, including when it is against the mob.

    Update (April 17) from Knut Wittkowski, on the best measures to have taken to protect the vulnerable, and further comments on the origin of the Corona Big Mistake (the disastrous, unnecessary shutdowns):

    The NYT today reports that many more people died in nursing homes than previously reported. This highlights the problem with isolating everybody rather than focusing on those at the highest risk.

    With much less than a few trillion dollars the government could have paid nurses overtime to stay within the facility for four weeks so that they could have been completely isolated. For other elderly people, one could have organized home delivery of prescription medicine (what Australia did) and three prepared meals a day, picked up and delivered laundry, … you name it.

    Instead, schools were closed and the economy was driven against the wall to prolong the duration of the epidemic and, thus, to prevent effective isolation of high risk populations – all because the scientists trained in assessing the impact (or lack thereof) of public health interventions were not included in the discussion.

    There is also a line in there complimenting Australia’s corona response, re: “What is Australia doing right?”

    • Replies: @vhrm
    haven't tried to debug, but all the date links seem to send me to the same original "episode 2" video. Where are these updates?
    , @TomSchmidt
    Thanks.
    , @Hail
    Updates from Dr. Knut Wittkowski:

    ______________

    A general US update (April 18) from Knut Wittkowski:


    CDC data:

    (1) Nothing was unusual (except, maybe, more deaths among the elderly) about the third flu this season.

    (2) No more hospital visits for "Influenza-like-Infections". We don't need models anymore, we have the data: TGIO (and that's why we now have to wear masks in NYS, the schools and businesses are closed. ...

    What data is Cuomo looking at?
     

    He links to this image:
    _
    https://www.cdc.gov/flu/weekly/weeklyarchives2019-2020/images/ILI15_small.gif
    _
    And he adds this (April 18):

    Here are the CDC's data presented at yesterday's WH briefing:

    [Link to same image as above].

    The number of infections (one week before people go to the hospital) peaked 03-08..15, ie, the epidemic was almost over when NYC closed schools and businesses from 03-17.

    Case closed?
     

    _______________

    On Australia (on-topic of Steve Sailer's "What is Australia doing right?"), someone writes to Dr Wittkowski the following:


    What else did Australia do, Knut?

    That's right, they enforced social distancing, banned non-essential travel, closed down businesses like bars and clubs, banned in-restaurant dining, banned public gatherings of more than TWO people, mandatory 14 day quarantines for not only people entering the country from overseas but also for all people travelling INTERSTATE...

    A lot of essential workplaces are directing staff to work from home, stores are imposing limits on the total amount of customers that can be inside the store at any one point in time... The list goes on and on, and Australia is having great success in limiting deaths as well as the spread of infection despite taking the exact opposite approach that you recommend.
     

    Knut Wittkowski responds (April 17):

    Actually, the Australian provinces didn't do all of this and not at the same time. I'm still trying to understand which province did what and when.
     
    ______________

    On Sweden, someone writes:


    To everyone that is using Sweden as an example of how the United States should handle the pandemic: Sweden has the 11th highest death rate in the world.

    If the United States modeled it's response after Sweden, there would have been over 49,000 Americans dead by April 3rd (That is the date that matches the number of days after the 100th death in the country that Sweden is currently on because it's important to note that Sweden is also 15 days behind the United States in it's curve). It's currently April 18th and there are 37,289 Americans that have died from Covid19.

    On April 3rd, there were 7,139 deaths in the United States from Covid19. If you apply the same growth rate in deaths that occurred between April 3rd-April 18th in the United States to Sweden's death rate, there would currently be 194,771 Americans that have died from Covid19. I don't think it's wise to hold Sweden up as an example of how to mitigate the Corona Virus.
     

    Knut Wittkowski responds (April 18):

    Deaths are not a good measure for spread of an age-related disease. Many other criteria can play a role whether somebody dies or not. For instance, Sweden has 20% of people >65 years, the US only 16%. The death "rate" (proportion) also depends on whether you count deaths "of", "with", or "during spread of" a virus.

    One of the best data I have seen (in the US) is the number of hospital visits for influenza-like-illnesses:

    [link to CDC image as above]

    Draw your conclusions!
     

    ___________________

    On the uniqueness of the Wuhan coronavirus, someone (whose other comments support the 'Wittkowski Strategy') writes:


    [T]he virus was new so they needed time to study it to know how to treat it.
     
    Knut Wittkowski responds (April 18)

    Every respiratory virus that spreads is new, otherwise it wouldn't spread.
     
    ____________________

    Someone asks:


    Seriously, what's he chewing?
     
    Knut Wittkowski sets the record straight (April 18):

    I had a bar of nuts for breakfast because NY diners are shut down.
     
    _____________________

    Someone comments:


    2 weeks later [after the anti-CoronaPanic Wittkowski interview], more than 30K deaths in total in the US, 3 times the predicted number already.... Not just a normal respiratory disease is it? Will you get the esteemed gentlemen's response?
     
    Knut Wittkowski responds (April 18):

    Sure. The CDC predicted 24,000-62,000 deaths for the 2020 flu season ( https://www.cdc.gov/flu/about/burden/preliminary-in-season-estimates.htm ) This flu season seems to have been bad (three flus), but not unusual.
     
    _____________________

    Someone says:


    The Rockefeller University releases statement concerning Knut Wittkowski

    April 13, 2020
    The opinions that have been expressed by Knut Wittkowski, discouraging social distancing in order to hasten the development of herd immunity to the novel coronavirus, do not represent the views of The Rockefeller University, its leadership, or its faculty. [...]
     

    Knut Wittkowski responds again to this (as he did in longer form before; see above):

    I can't answer the question why Rockefeller distances itself from science. A month after I published the results suggesting that this flu is just a flu, the CDC publishes the data showing that this flu was just a flu:

    [link to CDC image as above]
     

  187. @anon
    OT:

    The Physics genius Stephen Wolfram has just come out with a serious "Theory of Everything." This is apparently the real deal.
    https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=c9L-tRdPolM

    Too bad Wolfram’s Theory of Everything didn’t predict when would be a good time to release his Theory of Everything to maximize public attention.

    • Replies: @Jenner Ickham Errican

    didn’t predict when would be a good time to release
     
    At least two reasons to do so now (caveat—I haven’t watched the video):

    1) First to publish, in case there’s another smarty (rival doppelgänger?) who is working on an identical Theory of Everything, as predicted by the Theory of Everything.

    2) Perfect time for a slow-build Butterfly Effect?—if legit, his Theory includes all the exact calculations.

    , @anon
    Actually, he released his theory now to pay homage to Newton, who invented Calculus and his ideas about gravity while "sheltering in place" during the plague of 1665-67.
  188. @Hail
    Update (April 17) from Knut Wittkowski, on the best measures to have taken to protect the vulnerable, and further comments on the origin of the Corona Big Mistake (the disastrous, unnecessary shutdowns):

    The NYT today reports that many more people died in nursing homes than previously reported. This highlights the problem with isolating everybody rather than focusing on those at the highest risk.

    With much less than a few trillion dollars the government could have paid nurses overtime to stay within the facility for four weeks so that they could have been completely isolated. For other elderly people, one could have organized home delivery of prescription medicine (what Australia did) and three prepared meals a day, picked up and delivered laundry, ... you name it.

    Instead, schools were closed and the economy was driven against the wall to prolong the duration of the epidemic and, thus, to prevent effective isolation of high risk populations - all because the scientists trained in assessing the impact (or lack thereof) of public health interventions were not included in the discussion.
     

    There is also a line in there complimenting Australia's corona response, re: "What is Australia doing right?"

    haven’t tried to debug, but all the date links seem to send me to the same original “episode 2” video. Where are these updates?

    • Replies: @Hail
    They are posted as comments/replies by him to the video.

    The links are supposed to point to the comment and show it as "Highlighted Comment." If that doesn't work for you, you can confirm these by a lot of scrolling and use of ctrl-f.

  189. @Federalist
    Starting at about 26:30 he explains how social distancing/shelter in place delays herd immunity which leads to MORE DEATHS.

    But nobody who pushed the shutdown (including Steve) wants to even discuss this possibility.

    Starting at about 26:30 he explains how social distancing/shelter in place delays herd immunity which leads to MORE DEATHS.

    Only if you accept that nothing can be done to stop the spread, ignoring the real world examples of China and now America and Europe, where the number of new cases per day is no longer growing.

  190. @peterike

    They have some kind of national service called Aged Care that takes care of ‘em in a different way than we do ours. Old people get subsidized services ranging from meal delivery to rooms in nursing homes.
     
    So do Asians step off the airplane in Australia and by the next day have old Uncle and old Auntie signed up getting full benefits, even though they never paid a dime into the system?

    Dunno. The Strines are as dumb as we are, if so.

  191. @vhrm
    haven't tried to debug, but all the date links seem to send me to the same original "episode 2" video. Where are these updates?

    They are posted as comments/replies by him to the video.

    The links are supposed to point to the comment and show it as “Highlighted Comment.” If that doesn’t work for you, you can confirm these by a lot of scrolling and use of ctrl-f.

  192. @Steve Sailer
    Too bad Wolfram's Theory of Everything didn't predict when would be a good time to release his Theory of Everything to maximize public attention.

    didn’t predict when would be a good time to release

    At least two reasons to do so now (caveat—I haven’t watched the video):

    1) First to publish, in case there’s another smarty (rival doppelgänger?) who is working on an identical Theory of Everything, as predicted by the Theory of Everything.

    2) Perfect time for a slow-build Butterfly Effect?—if legit, his Theory includes all the exact calculations.

  193. Anon[781] • Disclaimer says:
    @peterike

    They have some kind of national service called Aged Care that takes care of ‘em in a different way than we do ours. Old people get subsidized services ranging from meal delivery to rooms in nursing homes.
     
    So do Asians step off the airplane in Australia and by the next day have old Uncle and old Auntie signed up getting full benefits, even though they never paid a dime into the system?

    Uncles and aunties don’t qualify for migration. If citizen-migrants want to bring their parents to live in Australia, they have to pay a significant bond to cover their healthcare expenses (or wait something like 20 years for one of the rare free spaces). Any skilled migrants have to wait years for welfare as well.

  194. @GermanReader2
    I did not follow the situation regarding corona in other countries religiously, but from casual news-watching I got the following picture regarding the situation in the different European countries:
    It seems, one can group the countries by the language-family of the official language. Then there are three groups:
    -The Slawic-speaking countries (Poland, Czech Republic, Hungary etc.): By and large they do not have a lot of cases. That seems to come from the relative poverty there, that makes it unlikely to go skiing in the Alps and a more reality-based outlook from life that comes from living under communism and the accompanied poverty (these people cannot be white-guilted into staging hug-a-Chinese-days or cut off travel from countries inhabited by people of a different race). Most cases there seem to come from seasonal workers, who worked in the restaurants etc. in the skiing-towns in the Alps. Since these are overwhelmingly young people the death rate is not that high. It will be interesting to see, what happens in the summer, since a lof Eastern Europeans do agricultural work in Western Europe and might bring the virus back into their countries
    -The countries that speak a Germanic language (Germany, Austria, Switzerland)
    These countries have a huge number of cases (Austria and Switzerland have a huge number of cases per capita), but seem to be holding on. The death-rate is average to low for coronavirus. They can even support the health system of the countries that speak a Romance language by sending medical supplies there and accepting ICU patients.
    -The countries that speak a Romance language (France, Italy, Spain). Here, the healthcare-system is completely overwhelmed, and the death-rate is around 10 percent and would probably be even higher if not for support from their neighbours.


    A few notable exceptions and points for thought:
    -The worst hit part of France (Alsace) is inhabited by ethnic Germans (You can see that by looking in a phonebook there or seeing the names of some of the doctors interviewed. They even have the highest consumption of sauerkraut per capita there). This to me looks as if the language spoken is a factor (maybe some languages produce more flying particles when speaking than other languages)
    -Portugal is remarkably unscathed
    -Is here anyone from Switzerland, that can tell me, what part of the country is the hardes hit and whether the health system has collapsed in some parts of the country but not in others?
    -According to this website (https://de.statista.com/statistik/daten/studie/1103785/umfrage/mortalitaetsrate-des-coronavirus-nach-laendern/) Britain has a remarkably high fatality rate and Belgiums is even higher. Can anyone tell me, what is going on there?
    -The Netherlands have a remarkably high mortality rate as well. In Germany, people always thought, that the Dutch healthcare-system was better than theirs. I wonder, what is going on.
    -I would love to see the, whether there is a difference between the Flamish (Germanic language) and French-speaking parts of Belgium.

    The Netherlands went for herd immunity before changing direction, right? Maybe they seeded the disease in vulnerable populations.

    Could it also be that the better the healthcare system, the worse the outcome? Too much use of ventilators damaging lungs?

  195. @Steve Sailer
    So will this get better as it warms up?

    I hope so.

    I hope so too. My friends dad died of this virus and he was only 93. His death was so unnecessary, he could have enjoyed another fortnight or two of good health easily, but because of the laxity of Australian government decisions he is now gone before his time. We are all bereft and in total shock at his passing. Cut down in his prime.

    The government of NSW (a state) allowed high-risk cruise ship passengers to disembark and mingle freely with the general population (as they also did with many also high-risk airline arrivals) while cops have been acting like heavy-handed thugs doling out ludicrously high fines for people sitting in parks, on the beach and even a woman teaching her daughter how to drive in their car FFS!

    It’s a lovely place but no less bonkers than the US (OK a bit less) just bonkers in a different way.

  196. @anon

    What kind of Bogan logic is that ! Wear a face mask go back to Asia ?
     
    The virus came from china. We in Oz were fine before they infected us - we shouldn't have to wear masks.
    Is this hard for you to understand? Australia isn't asia you retarded bell-end.
    Tell your chinese wife's son to stop posting on your behalf .

    The virus came from china. We in Oz were fine before they infected us

    In Australia the coronavirus came largely from the United States. We were fine before the Americans infected us.

  197. @dearieme
    I've lived in Oz. One thing that stuck out a mile is that Aussies are good at practical things. I dare say that helps in the present unpleasantness.

    I've also lived in NZ so I'm not in the least surprised that they are doing well too.

    On the subject of NZ, Japan, and California - is it an advantage to have government policies and procedures that have been devised for earthquake emergencies?

    I’ve lived in Oz. One thing that stuck out a mile is that Aussies are good at practical things.

    Australians are not constantly on the verge of hysteria and moral panics. And we don’t politicise everything to the extent that Americans do. We don’t see everything as a political or moral issue. Australia is a pragmatic country.

    It’s worth pointing out that Australia’s most successful prime ministers in electoral terms, Menzies and Hawke, were pragmatists rather than ideologues. Australians admire pragmatic politicians.

  198. I think pretty much all the reasons “why” have been covered above, but a few more details/elaborations occur:

    – people forget just how vast Australia is. It’s basically the same size as the continental USA but with a sliver of the population;

    – the major cities are separated by epic distances. At least hundreds of kilometres in every case (Perth is approximately 2,500 km from Adelaide, its nearest neighbour);

    – the state borders have been closed. With one exception – Brisbane is about 50km from the border with New South Wales – all the major cities are a long way from their state borders, creating huge buffer zones. Compare and contrast Connecticut/Rhode Island/Massachusetts/New York/Pennsylvania/New Jersey/Delaware.

    – all the rest: geographical isolation, effective government (however pusillanimous the current PM may be), solid healthcare system, low density cities, hot temperatures. Basically, if you wanted to design a country to be resistant to pandemic spread, it would probably look like Australia (or maybe an advanced city-state like Singapore or Hong Kong, but thouse are “states” without being “countries”).

    Another question I’m keen to have answered (because I have quite a strong personal interest in it) is: what is Britain doing wrong? Earlier today I made it that 10% of ALL Covid19 deaths worldwide have happened in this country, and 13% if we exclude the USA. That feels like a lot to me.

    It’s becoming ever more obvious that our government is composed of mostly incompetent individuals who don’t have meaningful control of any part of the crisis. They are currently leaderless, true, but the incapacitated leader is no more competent than the average and probably less. At least we’re spared the “leadership” of your president, I suppose.

    • Replies: @NoseytheDuke
    British media likes to salt the world media with the lies that are intended for the world. I'm not doubting that there are genuine deaths or that this is bad but what haven't they lied about? It will take time for reality to rear its head again, if it ever does. In the meantime take anything from the BBC or Murdoch's rubbish for what it has shown itself to always be, propaganda and utter garbage.
  199. ,
    I have to agree, demographics (or lack of a certain prominent one) is a big advantage for Aus vs US.
    Our public service is still populated with mostly educated and conscientious middle class professionals. It’s not a big make work program for the unemployable.
    Yes both political parties have embraced high levels of immigration and ‘non discriminatory’ immigration policy. But even Labor have not gone full retard the way American left has. For example we had an experiment with taking in Sudanese, observed the predictable consequences and quietly shut that valve off. There is more push/pull here between left/right as a the right here cottoned on early that this was an election winning issue. In fact even Australian Labor’s immigration policy is to the right of mainstream Republican.

    All in all we are just on the slow train rather than fast train to hell, but that still gives us more time to correct course. Have lived in the US (NYC) and in many ways it does resemble Brazil more than Australia.

  200. We’re still playing along with the scare here? Really?

    Okay… well the first actual widespread antibody testing shows that corona is OH NO! 50 to 85 times more widespread than feared!!!

    Or for those not already hiding under their covers… the study shows corona is 1/50th to 1/85th as dangerous as initial estimates. Meaning it’s not probably dangerous at all in any meaningful relative sense.

    https://www.foxnews.com/health/coronavirus-antibody-testing-finds-bay-area-infections-85-times-higher-reported-researchers

    This really should not even be a surprise.

  201. Anonymous[190] • Disclaimer says:
    @Kratoklastes
    Melbourne has a reasonably large underground 'loop' that goes under the CBD - the 'City Loop'[1]. It's only 6 stops, but it has feeder routes that carry people from a radial network that's one of the largest in the Southern Hemisphere.

    And during rush hour, trains and trams (the tram network goes about 2/3rds as far as the trains) are absolutely packed - not 'Japanese trains in the 80s' packed, but still pretty bad.

    It's not population density; it's not a slightly-healthier population than Yankistan; it's not lockdowns; it's fucking TEMPERATURE.
    As you would expect for a flu-like coronavirus: propagates better when temps and humidity are low.

    If this thing was worth worrying about[2], our political class' slavish aping of the Yanks and Poms would be a very bad idea... selling the national tiger repelling banana[3] just before tiger season, just to get try and get mentioned in a tweet from #OrangeManBad.

    We get our flu season in winter, just like you sissies on the bottom of the planet. People are slightly immunocompromised in winter - lower VitD etc. Our winter is at the correct position in the year - i.e., late June(ish) to late September.

    Also: the US sick-people-exploiting system is clearly the most expensive possible way to get sub-standard 'health-care'. The UK NHS is not all that much better.

    [1] We used to name things very descriptively - 'Great Sandy Desert', 'Snowy Mountains', 'Western Australia', 'Great Ocean Road'.

    [2] It's not though. It's a nasty-ish respiratory bug that kills very old, very unwell people. For the rest of the population, the excess risk is so near zero that it makes no odds. We will confirm this once all mortality data by age group is available.

    [3] Australia has loads of bananas, one of which I suspect protects us from tigers. Evidence: no tigers outside zoos; no bananas inside tiger cages.

    That is the same evidentiary basis as 'lockdowns work'.

    https://info.flutracking.net/reports-2/australia-reports/

    Look at recent week report. Flu is down to a very low level for time of year. What we are doing is working for flu at least. It’s not just temperature as some contend.

  202. @Jonathan Mason
    And the controls are not that draconian. Where I live people make a token effort at social distancing but are not in the least obsessive about it. It’s not a genuine police state the way modern Britain is.

    Interesting. You see stories about over officious enforcement coming out of Britain all the time, but here in Florida we are under "lockdown" but I have never seen or heard of any police enforcement actions other than clearing public beaches which are now closed to the public.

    The enforcement works much more at an institutional and governmental level. Schools closed, non essential businesses closed, however that is interpreted very loosely. In my neighborhood the Ace Hardware and the animal feed store are open, so is a tool and equipment rental place, a car repair place, and the dollar store. All gas stations with convenience stores are open. However the courthouse and local government offices are closed, parks are closed and of course restaurants are closed except for takeouts.

    So the overall effect is that people are mostly at home, there is not much traffic, and most people have no particular place to go other than to work, the supermarket, or the gas station.

    Interesting. You see stories about over officious enforcement coming out of Britain all the time,

    Britain has been heading towards totalitarianism for quite a while. The British police have been entirely politicised.

    I know that much of this started under Blair but the process was accelerated under the former Nanny-in-Chief Theresa May. Both Labour and the Tories are committed to totalitarianism. The British seem to be quite willing to accept it. Maybe Orwell was onto something in predicting a totalitarian future for Britain – maybe he could already see the signs.

    • Replies: @NoseytheDuke
    It goes back much, much further. British police forces (likely Australian and US too) are rife at the top with the "funny hand-shake" set. 'Nuff said.
  203. We’ll learn more by August and September, but Aussies get a lot of sun all year so they may not see our rates. I’m betting we learn eventually that vitamin D is very important. Vitamin D would explain a lot about why African Americans are having such a bad time. Eventually we might learn a lot by comparing Africans in Africa to Africans in America and Europe.

  204. @anon
    OT:

    The Physics genius Stephen Wolfram has just come out with a serious "Theory of Everything." This is apparently the real deal.
    https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=c9L-tRdPolM

    The Physics genius Stephen Wolfram has just come out with a serious “Theory of Everything.” This is apparently the real deal.

    I read a bit of what he wrote. It looks more to me like an hypothesis for an approach that might lead to a theory of everything – some day.

    Not to say it is dumb. Basically he thinks that at the base of physical reality there should be a few simple rules that create the complexity we see. Seems reasonable to me.

    https://writings.stephenwolfram.com/2020/04/finally-we-may-have-a-path-to-the-fundamental-theory-of-physics-and-its-beautiful/?fbclid=IwAR1n4lMomBpqNPO8PzrHp_ktAs6JAq74W30NQyEkHzUfHqUpbBuiOhbf5Io

  205. Anonymous[190] • Disclaimer says:
    @Anonymous
    Wittkowski has a serious case of sanpaku eyes (google it) and that chewing of his is unnerving. Something deeply wrong with this guy IMO.

    8.35 into the video, Hail, crazy eyes begins. Between that and the perseverative chewing (dementia?), something is off about him. I’m not a troll for noticing this, Steve is all about the noticing.

    BTW I have WN sympathies, I like your posts most of the time but on this matter, I don’t think this guy is a good source. He makes arguments that don’t stand up, which I started on fisking.

    • Replies: @128
    I do not think Wuhan has herd immunity? They locked down way too early and too hard in Wuhan for 90% of the population to have that bug.
  206. @Reg Cæsar

    I’m out of Agrees, so I agree.
     
    Are those found in the personal hygiene aisle? Has there been a run on them, too?

    I’m out of Agrees, so I agree.

    Are those found in the personal hygiene aisle? Has there been a run on them, too?

    Ron Unz has instituted a rationing system. He’s not going to have us hoarding Agrees. Or stripping the shelves of Agrees and then selling them at a profit.

    • LOL: GermanReader2
  207. @Muggles
    >>Imagine a country in which government basically works and the grown-ups are in charge and that’s Australia. It’s not perfect but mostly it works.<<

    Yes, "grown ups" who disarm their citizens because, you know, otherwise they'll act like children. Or Americans.

    Now of course the Triads and bikie gangs (that's motorcycle clubs for you Yanks) are not so unarmed, but we all have our wishful thinking caps.

    Yes, Oz is a great place, I'd like to visit before I die.

    On the other hand, if the Nipponese or Chinese decide to come visit in force, and stay (again, in one case) Aussies will soon be hunting 'roos and wombats for food. Or working in the slave labor camps. Mother England can't/won't help them. It will be left up to the barbarian Americanos again. *Sigh*

    Or we could just send Mel Gibson back...

    Yes, “grown ups” who disarm their citizens because, you know, otherwise they’ll act like children. Or Americans.

    Actually that’s precisely the thinking and it’s correct. We don’t want Australia turned into the US. We have this weird idea that people constantly shooting each other is a bad thing. In the US it’s apparently considered a good thing.

    Australians don’t need guns to feel good about themselves.

    • Replies: @Charles Erwin Wilson Three

    Australians don’t need guns to feel good about themselves.
     
    Neither do we. We need guns to protect us from the tyrannical actions of the government. Australian government is as susceptible to faddish thinking and Marxist superstition as any in the West. But when they round you up for the gulag, you will bleat and shuffle off, like the sheep you are.
  208. @DanHessinMD
    I am really skeptical of the Kinsa data. Can someone explain what their numbers mean? I have a feeling it doesn't really mean what they think it means.

    Say a million people have Kinsa smart thermometers. Does Kinsa report the percent of self-temperature readings that turn up feverish?

    ---> Because then the Kinsa data would go to zero as healthy people panicked by the media measure themselves 10 times a day.

    If previously people took their temperature when they were sick, now everyone has media induced hypochondria. I think that is what the Kinsa data is actually showing. Am I wrong?

    Does it really make sense that in 10 days, the whole population got extremely healthy or are healthy people just checking their temperature obsessively? I suspect the latter. Can anyone answer this for me?

    Those are good questions. The most detailed discussions of their methods I could find were in:
    – this blog post: https://www.kinsahealth.co/kinsas-real-time-illness-signal-provides-unprecedented-localized-illness-detection-and-forecasting/
    – which references this paper: https://academic.oup.com/cid/article/67/3/388/4838992
    – which also has a link to Supplementary Material

    Here is another paper discussing the models.
    https://academic.oup.com/ofid/article/6/11/ofz455/5610164

    The basic idea seems to be that they create a model (GLM) which maps the thermometer data into the equivalent of state ILI (influenza-like illness) activity. Here is a flu surveillance dashboard which shows flu infections going to zero (lower right graph) just as Kinsa’s data does:
    https://gis.cdc.gov/grasp/fluview/fluportaldashboard.html

    I think that surveillance data serves as confirmation of the decline Kinsa observes.

    I have been assuming the people at Kinsa are not idiots and would recognize the issue you raise (but that’s not always a safe assumption). It is possible the effect you describe is new (say typically people are more likely to take their temperature when they feel sick, but now everybody is) and they have failed to account for this.

    My theory is that new cases are down largely as they describe with existing cases either recovered or under care (and not using their Kinsa thermometer in the hospital). I think the steady declines in illness rate we are seeing after various shutdowns are a plausible outcome.

    I have been unable to figure out an answer to your questions from the links above. Perhaps you could take a look to see if you can? The most suggestive thing I saw was this excerpt from the Supplementary Material which sounds at least somewhat similar to the issue you raise.

    Appendix 1: De-trending the thermometer series to account for product uptake

    At the beginning of our study period there appears to be a slight product uptake effect, which is likely due to product growth as the number of active thermometer users increases. Beginning near the peak of the 2015-2016 flu season (week of 03/06/2016), the number of thermometer measurements appears to follow ILI-activity closely. However, leading up to this point, the number of thermometer measurements appears to steadily increase, as the difference between ILI activity and the number of thermometer measurements gradually decreases. This can be seen in Appendix Figure 1, below. In this figure, the ILI series has been normalized by its mean and standard deviation over the entire period, while the number of thermometer measurements has been normalized using the mean and standard deviation from the data after the week of 03/06/2016.

  209. @DanHessinMD
    How accurate is Kinsa's data?

    Some number, i.e. a million, Americans have a Kinsa smart thermometer, right? Does Kinsa just look at the percent of smart thermometer readings that turn out feverish?

    If so then a bunch of panicked healthy people taking their temperature every day would drive fevers down to near zero, right? Normally healthy people wouldn't take their temperature, but during a COVID-19 panic, I can see healthy people taking their temperatures often.

    Does it really make sense that in the span of just ten days, America's health just suddenly became nearly perfect? COVID cases and deaths kept on rising during that span.

    My theory is that healthy Americans, made anxious by the media, took their temperatures often and drove the fever averages way down.

    Can anyone help explain this?

  210. @Steve Sailer
    It's a reference to the self-sacrifice of Lt. Oates on Scott's Antarctic mission in 1905:

    https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Lawrence_Oates

    Captain Oates, feel free to delete this after

  211. @Tusk
    We closed the borders 1 week after the first reported case, making any recent arrivals quarantine outside of China for 14 days before they were allowed entry. Doing this simply stopped us from being overwhelmed by infected people creating multiple clusters. Closing the borders quickly and then engaging in social distancing and test+trace was surely the right move.

    Luckily enough was only pushed through because the centre-right party in power has sizeable anti-immigration backing so it was a move they could make. If the left Labor party was in power they would have followed New York's response and yelled RACISM at the potential stigma and continued to let Chinese citizens in.

    Here's some of the responses to Australia's effective, and correct, border closure measures to stop the spread:

    “It’s an overreaction,” Abbey Shi told Al Jazeera by telephone.

    Shi is an international student from Shanghai, and the general secretary of the University of Sydney Student Representative Council. She believes that students are keeping themselves well-informed about the coronavirus.
    5th of Feburary 2020
     

    “I have absolutely no idea what will happen from here,” Ritsu says, describing the travel ban as an “excuse for racism”.
    4th of February 2020
     

    Dozens of people have rallied outside the immigration department’s Sydney offices calling on Canberra to lift the travel ban on foreign nationals travelling from China amid the coronavirus outbreak.
    Some held signs stating “No politics of fear – we stand with the Chinese community” and “Solidarity with Wuhan” while others chanted “No racism, no fear, Chinese people are welcome here”.
     

    Ahmed Ademoglu, who represents 700,000 international tertiary students in Australia, said they felt "exploited" and would discourage future students from enrolling here. International students were aggrieved in particular by the detention of Chinese students in Australian airports and the block on Chinese student visas since the travel ban was introduced on February 1
     
    And my favourite:

    Wang Xining, an official from the Chinese embassy in Canberra..."We hope their rights and interests will be safeguarded, including proper expansion of visas if the validity is over, and also maybe proper compensation for some of the financial losses during this period."
     
    Funnily enough I didn't see anyone complaining when Australia extended the travel ban to Iran, Italy, Korea and so forth once they were experiencing outbreaks as well.

    making any recent arrivals quarantine outside of China for 14 days before they were allowed entry

    Everyone decided on ’14 days’ for very bad-quant reasons.

    There have been observed cases where symptoms (appear to have) developed 27 days after exposure. (It’s now necessary to say ‘appear to have’ when discussing when someone was exposed, because that individual might have been exposed considerably later from a person who was, and remained, asymptomatic – which is the majority of cases, particularly among the young).

    Xi He et al – in Nature yesterday – had a modest-sized sample (94) who were tracked from first symptom onset, with swabs taken every day for 32 days. In general viral load was below the threshold (Ct > 40) after 21 days.

    Note that the threshold at 40Ct is a constraint introduced by the test; it doesn’t mean that it’s a reading consistent with absence of the virus, or absence of infectiousness (because it’s not clear what viral load is required for a patient to shed enough to infect others).

    They estimate that the peak infectiousness – the time at which the infected person is shedding the most virus – is the 2 days prior to the development of symptoms.

    As yet, it’s still an open question what actual level viral shedding is required to generate an infection for different people.

    It might well be that asymptomatic people are shedding virus in sufficient quantities to infect the vulnerable, for well over 14 days.

    .

    The USS Theodore Roosevelt‘s infected cohort give us some better data on asymp-levels among the young and healthy. People like me have always assumed that there is a vast pool of asymps – and that this pool is significantly larger than the pool who have been tested positive.

    We now know that among a large group of tested-positive healthy young males (the infectees in the crew of the USS Theodore Roosevelt), a little over 60% are asymptomatic-but-infected. Some of those might go on to develop symptoms, of course – which casts doubt on the ‘5-day incubation period’.

    The same (broadly) is true of the Charles de Gaulle (the French navy’s carrier): 40 symptomatic crew triggered shipwide testing, which showed that they had 668 positives out of a crew of 1767. That’s not to say that 628/668 are asymptomatic: they may be pre-symptomatic, or they might have mild symptoms that they shrugged off. They’re sailors, so the symptoms must be mild indeed.

    (As an aside: this shows that the long-standing Navy practice of fucking your shipmates is maybe a part of tradition that should be cast adrift)

    .

    Now, it seems that we can assume that the number of undetected asymptomatic cases in 20-40 year olds is at least twice the number of 20-40 year olds who have bad enough symptoms to be tested under the US testing regime.

    In terms of general health, the average sailor is in considerably better shape than the average civilian – if physical robustness correlates with asymptomaticity then gyms should be opened immediately.

  212. @res
    https://www.newscientist.com/article/2240226-australia-seems-to-be-keeping-a-lid-on-covid-19-how-is-it-doing-it/

    Australia’s response to the pandemic has largely centred on shutting its borders, limiting public gatherings and conducting large-scale testing and contact tracing.

    Travelling overseas is banned, foreigners aren’t allowed to enter the country, and Australians who return from other countries are kept in mandatory quarantine at specially designated hotels for two weeks.

    Social gatherings of more than two people are also forbidden and leaving the house is permitted only for essential reasons like buying food and exercising.

    Australia has so far tested more than 310,000 people for covid-19. When someone tests positive, their close contacts are tracked down and ordered to self-isolate for two weeks.

    The main reason for Australia’s success is probably its strict travel restrictions, says Adam Kamradt-Scott at the University of Sydney. About 70 per cent of Australians who have tested positive for covid-19 picked it up while they were overseas, making it important to stem this flow, he says, and being an island nation has made it easier for Australia to rapidly shut its borders.

    Social distancing, testing and contact tracing have added to the success of travel bans, says Kamradt-Scott. Plus, there may be cultural factors that have limited the spread of the virus, like the fact that most Australians choose to live in separate dwellings rather than apartment buildings and older people who require care tend to live in care homes rather than with their families, he says.

    Unlike many other countries, Australia has kept schools open, but they don’t appear to have been drivers of virus spread so far, says Kathryn Snow at the University of Melbourne.

     

    Schools still being open there is an interesting data point.

    Australia has so far tested more than 310,000 people for covid-19. When someone tests positive, their close contacts are tracked down and ordered to self-isolate for two weeks.

    Ordered to self-isolate? Is there an editor anywhere?

  213. @B36
    The "county judge" is the executive officer of a Texas county. Texas counties are run by a "commissioner's court" consisting of 4 "precinct commissioners" chaired by the county judge.

    Right. You deal with the Commissioner’s Court for stuff like platting in the unincorporated or non-ETJ areas of the county.

  214. @B36
    Texas, which has a similar population and GDP compared to the country of Australia, has had a grand total of 393 coronavirus deaths as of today. https://coronavirusintexas.org/

    Texas, which has a similar population and GDP compared to the country of Australia, has had a grand total of 393 coronavirus deaths as of today. https://coronavirusintexas.org/

    We’re still piecing it together, but it seems that my children’s school auction may have been a superspreader event. Lots of infections among attendees, but no deaths despite the fact it hasn’t been a very warm spring in North Texas.

  215. @GermanReader2
    I did not follow the situation regarding corona in other countries religiously, but from casual news-watching I got the following picture regarding the situation in the different European countries:
    It seems, one can group the countries by the language-family of the official language. Then there are three groups:
    -The Slawic-speaking countries (Poland, Czech Republic, Hungary etc.): By and large they do not have a lot of cases. That seems to come from the relative poverty there, that makes it unlikely to go skiing in the Alps and a more reality-based outlook from life that comes from living under communism and the accompanied poverty (these people cannot be white-guilted into staging hug-a-Chinese-days or cut off travel from countries inhabited by people of a different race). Most cases there seem to come from seasonal workers, who worked in the restaurants etc. in the skiing-towns in the Alps. Since these are overwhelmingly young people the death rate is not that high. It will be interesting to see, what happens in the summer, since a lof Eastern Europeans do agricultural work in Western Europe and might bring the virus back into their countries
    -The countries that speak a Germanic language (Germany, Austria, Switzerland)
    These countries have a huge number of cases (Austria and Switzerland have a huge number of cases per capita), but seem to be holding on. The death-rate is average to low for coronavirus. They can even support the health system of the countries that speak a Romance language by sending medical supplies there and accepting ICU patients.
    -The countries that speak a Romance language (France, Italy, Spain). Here, the healthcare-system is completely overwhelmed, and the death-rate is around 10 percent and would probably be even higher if not for support from their neighbours.


    A few notable exceptions and points for thought:
    -The worst hit part of France (Alsace) is inhabited by ethnic Germans (You can see that by looking in a phonebook there or seeing the names of some of the doctors interviewed. They even have the highest consumption of sauerkraut per capita there). This to me looks as if the language spoken is a factor (maybe some languages produce more flying particles when speaking than other languages)
    -Portugal is remarkably unscathed
    -Is here anyone from Switzerland, that can tell me, what part of the country is the hardes hit and whether the health system has collapsed in some parts of the country but not in others?
    -According to this website (https://de.statista.com/statistik/daten/studie/1103785/umfrage/mortalitaetsrate-des-coronavirus-nach-laendern/) Britain has a remarkably high fatality rate and Belgiums is even higher. Can anyone tell me, what is going on there?
    -The Netherlands have a remarkably high mortality rate as well. In Germany, people always thought, that the Dutch healthcare-system was better than theirs. I wonder, what is going on.
    -I would love to see the, whether there is a difference between the Flamish (Germanic language) and French-speaking parts of Belgium.

    The two Hellenic states, Greece and Cyprus, have also done remarkably well. Perhaps the best performers in Europe.

  216. Australians are for the most part orderly and law-abiding. Australians do not feel that being a selfish asshole is admirable; nor being a cheating, lying, defrauding hustler.

    We don’t have the American “Muh Freedoms!”, and religion has less of an influence. Our biggest and most political church of lunatic evangelicals is sane and moderate compared to churches in the US. https://hillsong.com/citycare/covid-19-response/ .

    Our public service is uncorrupt, effective, tech savvy, and mostly trusted. Politically, we are left of the USA. When the Global Finanacial Crisis hit, our government responded by injecting money into the base of the economic pyramid, which worked splendidly well, so well that even the current right-wing government knows that that’s the way to deal with economic shocks.

    Lots of things. But the geograpghical isolation is a biggie.

  217. @Tor597
    Australia is surrounded by competent East Asian countries that have helped contain the virus.

    If you were to put the same people in Europe or God forbid America they would have had the same abysmal white infection control performance.

    Australia is surrounded by competent East Asian countries that have helped contain the virus

    Indonesia? Seriously? Indonesia has the highest ‘rona death toll outside China. Australia isn’t surrounded by competent east asian countries – it’s surrounded by sea. Girt, in fact. It’s right there in the national anthem.

  218. @Mobi

    Yes, having a rational workable political system certainly helps. In the US you have a political system that makes your country ungovernable.
     

    Australia: 'Coup capital of the democratic world'

    With five prime ministers in as many years [2015], Canberra has solidified its reputation as the coup capital of the democratic world.

    ...It is now over a decade since an Australian prime minister managed to serve out his or her first term.

    ...Covering Australian politics feels more like conducting a triage of the wounded and slain. The bloodletting has become so brutal that party rooms have come to resemble abattoirs.

    Were a movie to be made of Australian politics over the past decade it would have to be X-rated, and, as I have said before, be directed by Quentin Tarantino...
     
    https://www.bbc.com/news/world-australia-34249214


    Sort of conforms to my observation visiting relatives a few years back. Couldn't watch the news after a while - the level of petty, partisan bickering was off the charts. So much so, I recall a discussion with my hosts as to why Australia stood out so much this way (pre-Trump era, mind you)

    Reporter: 'Lovely day today, isn't it?'

    Pol: 'Well, Wally, it might seem that way, were it not for the blinding incompetence of this government/opposition....blah blah blah...'

    Absolutely relentless, it was. Has everyone put it aside and come together these days?

    You’re missing an important point. In a parliamentary democracy prime ministers might come and go but the business of government goes on with little or no interruption. Prime ministers in a parliamentary democracy are not like US presidents (who are more like elected monarchs).

    • Replies: @Peterike
    “ not like US presidents (who are more like elected monarchs).”

    Lol! It’s hilarious how little smug foreigners understand the United States.
  219. @XYZ (no Mr.)
    Yet people still immigrate to America in large numbers. (That's a sad fact, not a credit to America. It merely means the cultures the immigrants come from are so crappy and dysfunctional even America looks tempting.)

    I personally wish Australia, New Zealand, Canada, the United Kingdom, and Ireland would absorb all future immigration bound for the US. It would do both the potential future immigrants, and us Americans, a lot of good.

    Let us Americans enjoy a quiet decay among (or amongst?) ourselves. I can better tolerate dysfunction within my own kind, because I know their ways.

    Yet people still immigrate to America in large numbers. (That’s a sad fact, not a credit to America. It merely means the cultures the immigrants come from are so crappy and dysfunctional even America looks tempting.)

    They’re tempted by the lure of money. No-one on the planet believes the US is a functional society.

  220. @AnotherDad


    ...
    Australia also has a rational fully functioning welfare state so we don’t have a hostile underclass to the same extent as the US. We don’t have a huge homeless problem. And we do make an effort o look after old people.

    We have a rational functioning universal health system that is not riddled with corruption and profiteering.

    We also don’t shoot each other as often. Even our cops are not trigger-happy thugs.

    Imagine a country in which government basically works and the grown-ups are in charge and that’s Australia. It’s not perfect but mostly it works.
     
    Blah, blah, blah, blah, blah, ...

    Dude, you don't have a "legacy of slavery" so of course a bunch of stuff works better.

    In the 2016 Australian census, the most commonly nominated ancestries were:
    English (36.1%)
    Australian (33.5%)
    Irish (11.0%)
    Scottish (9.3%)
    Chinese (5.6%)
    Italian (4.6%)
    German (4.5%)
    Indian (2.8%)
    Indigenous (2.8%)
    Greek (1.8%)
    Dutch (1.6%)
    Filipino (1.4%)
    Vietnamese (1.4%)
    Lebanese (1%)
     
    And yet, you've fully imbibed the minoritarian ideology our "American" "elites" push out and you are hard at work pissing your fantastic legacy away with immigration.

    And yet, you’ve fully imbibed the minoritarian ideology our “American” “elites” push out and you are hard at work pissing your fantastic legacy away with immigration.

    The US has certainly been a destructive and pernicious influence on Australia (and on the entire world). But Australia has not bought into it entirely. That’s why we have a chance of survival.

  221. @Johnny McMullen
    Probably, nothing.

    Even the major cities like Sydney just have more urban sprawl and lack of community spirit than any real city, or even cities in America.

    lack of community spirit

    Yes, this is something that I have thought about before. For example, in Australian high schools (and universities), no one cares about the senior rugby team (or sports team). Only the parents watch the games. There are no massive stadiums or marching bands. Your average student couldn’t care less about the senior sports team.

    Why this is, I don’t know. In Rugby, there is no equivalent to the quarterback. Maybe there isn’t enough star power on the team for anyone to care about it. Maybe Hollywood needs to make movies about Australian high schools and their rugby teams.

    • Replies: @sb
    Very few Australian schools have a rugby team . Rugby is mainly an elite private school sport and then only in in certain regions. ( although for many of these schools it would be THE sport )
    There are plenty more schoolboy Australian Rules football , rugby league and soccer teams than rugby teams .
    Very few Australians know the first thing about rugby ( something rugby fans find hard to fathom )

    Australian sport is overwhelmingly community club based and school sport is minor by comparison .( Universities generally field club teams in local community competitions and compete in national university events maybe once a year . They are ( largely ) independent of any university administration

    The US sports school based system just seems very very odd to Australians ( although quite a number take advantage of it's sporting scholarship system ) But that's a huge topic in itself

    By the way when I was young and played sport it was then very rare for many parents to turn up and watch ( they had their own lives ) but nowdays it has become the norm
  222. @Steve Sailer
    Too bad Wolfram's Theory of Everything didn't predict when would be a good time to release his Theory of Everything to maximize public attention.

    Actually, he released his theory now to pay homage to Newton, who invented Calculus and his ideas about gravity while “sheltering in place” during the plague of 1665-67.

  223. @AnotherDad


    ...
    Australia also has a rational fully functioning welfare state so we don’t have a hostile underclass to the same extent as the US. We don’t have a huge homeless problem. And we do make an effort o look after old people.

    We have a rational functioning universal health system that is not riddled with corruption and profiteering.

    We also don’t shoot each other as often. Even our cops are not trigger-happy thugs.

    Imagine a country in which government basically works and the grown-ups are in charge and that’s Australia. It’s not perfect but mostly it works.
     
    Blah, blah, blah, blah, blah, ...

    Dude, you don't have a "legacy of slavery" so of course a bunch of stuff works better.

    In the 2016 Australian census, the most commonly nominated ancestries were:
    English (36.1%)
    Australian (33.5%)
    Irish (11.0%)
    Scottish (9.3%)
    Chinese (5.6%)
    Italian (4.6%)
    German (4.5%)
    Indian (2.8%)
    Indigenous (2.8%)
    Greek (1.8%)
    Dutch (1.6%)
    Filipino (1.4%)
    Vietnamese (1.4%)
    Lebanese (1%)
     
    And yet, you've fully imbibed the minoritarian ideology our "American" "elites" push out and you are hard at work pissing your fantastic legacy away with immigration.

    Dude, you don’t have a “legacy of slavery” so of course a bunch of stuff works better.

    True. But more importantly we don’t have a legacy of Puritanism. Puritanism may be the biggest single reason the US ended up as a failed society. American politics/ideology is formed by a mixture of mutant Puritanism and reactions against Puritanism.

    Australia was fortunate not to get the religious fanatics that the US got. We can be very thankful that the Mayflower headed for the America and not Australia.

    • Replies: @Joe Stalin

    Puritanism may be the biggest single reason the US ended up as failed society. American politics/ideology is formed by a mixture of mutant Puritanism and reactions against Puritanism.

    Australia was fortunate not to get the religious fanatics that the US got. We can be very thankful that the Mayflower headed for the America and not Australia.
     
    Aussies love to insult the USA.

    As we relax after Christmas and tune in to the Boxing Day Test, it may be worth reflecting on Curtin's New Year's message to the Australian people, published in the Melbourne Herald on 27 December 1941. Writing three weeks after the Japanese attack on Pearl Harbor, Curtin declared: 'Without any inhibitions of any kind, I make it quite clear that Australia looks to America, free of any pangs as to our traditional links or kinship with the United Kingdom.'

    His statement was attacked by conservative political opponents, angered the British Prime Minister Winston Churchill, and astonished the American president Franklin Roosevelt.

    For Curtin was ahead of the US in his thinking about strategy and priorities for the war in the Pacific. Yet his initiative boosted Australia's defences against the threat of invasion, laid the ground for the post-war ANZUS treaty, and forged an alliance which has been central to Australian foreign policy and defence strategy ever since.

    He defied Churchill by insisting on the return of Australian troops from other theatres; he forged a new military partnership with the US; and he insisted on a role for Australia in decision-making on the course of the war in the Pacific.

    https://www.lowyinstitute.org/the-interpreter/john-curtins-turn-america-75-years
     
    Come begging this "failed society" for your survival, and yet always attacking it.

    Ironic, huh?
  224. @Rob (London)
    I think pretty much all the reasons "why" have been covered above, but a few more details/elaborations occur:

    - people forget just how vast Australia is. It's basically the same size as the continental USA but with a sliver of the population;

    - the major cities are separated by epic distances. At least hundreds of kilometres in every case (Perth is approximately 2,500 km from Adelaide, its nearest neighbour);

    - the state borders have been closed. With one exception - Brisbane is about 50km from the border with New South Wales - all the major cities are a long way from their state borders, creating huge buffer zones. Compare and contrast Connecticut/Rhode Island/Massachusetts/New York/Pennsylvania/New Jersey/Delaware.

    - all the rest: geographical isolation, effective government (however pusillanimous the current PM may be), solid healthcare system, low density cities, hot temperatures. Basically, if you wanted to design a country to be resistant to pandemic spread, it would probably look like Australia (or maybe an advanced city-state like Singapore or Hong Kong, but thouse are "states" without being "countries").

    Another question I'm keen to have answered (because I have quite a strong personal interest in it) is: what is Britain doing wrong? Earlier today I made it that 10% of ALL Covid19 deaths worldwide have happened in this country, and 13% if we exclude the USA. That feels like a lot to me.

    It's becoming ever more obvious that our government is composed of mostly incompetent individuals who don't have meaningful control of any part of the crisis. They are currently leaderless, true, but the incapacitated leader is no more competent than the average and probably less. At least we're spared the "leadership" of your president, I suppose.

    British media likes to salt the world media with the lies that are intended for the world. I’m not doubting that there are genuine deaths or that this is bad but what haven’t they lied about? It will take time for reality to rear its head again, if it ever does. In the meantime take anything from the BBC or Murdoch’s rubbish for what it has shown itself to always be, propaganda and utter garbage.

  225. @dfordoom

    Interesting. You see stories about over officious enforcement coming out of Britain all the time,
     
    Britain has been heading towards totalitarianism for quite a while. The British police have been entirely politicised.

    I know that much of this started under Blair but the process was accelerated under the former Nanny-in-Chief Theresa May. Both Labour and the Tories are committed to totalitarianism. The British seem to be quite willing to accept it. Maybe Orwell was onto something in predicting a totalitarian future for Britain - maybe he could already see the signs.

    It goes back much, much further. British police forces (likely Australian and US too) are rife at the top with the “funny hand-shake” set. ‘Nuff said.

  226. @anon

    lack of community spirit
     
    Yes, this is something that I have thought about before. For example, in Australian high schools (and universities), no one cares about the senior rugby team (or sports team). Only the parents watch the games. There are no massive stadiums or marching bands. Your average student couldn't care less about the senior sports team.

    Why this is, I don't know. In Rugby, there is no equivalent to the quarterback. Maybe there isn't enough star power on the team for anyone to care about it. Maybe Hollywood needs to make movies about Australian high schools and their rugby teams.

    Very few Australian schools have a rugby team . Rugby is mainly an elite private school sport and then only in in certain regions. ( although for many of these schools it would be THE sport )
    There are plenty more schoolboy Australian Rules football , rugby league and soccer teams than rugby teams .
    Very few Australians know the first thing about rugby ( something rugby fans find hard to fathom )

    Australian sport is overwhelmingly community club based and school sport is minor by comparison .( Universities generally field club teams in local community competitions and compete in national university events maybe once a year . They are ( largely ) independent of any university administration

    The US sports school based system just seems very very odd to Australians ( although quite a number take advantage of it’s sporting scholarship system ) But that’s a huge topic in itself

    By the way when I was young and played sport it was then very rare for many parents to turn up and watch ( they had their own lives ) but nowdays it has become the norm

  227. @Hail
    Update (April 17) from Knut Wittkowski, on the best measures to have taken to protect the vulnerable, and further comments on the origin of the Corona Big Mistake (the disastrous, unnecessary shutdowns):

    The NYT today reports that many more people died in nursing homes than previously reported. This highlights the problem with isolating everybody rather than focusing on those at the highest risk.

    With much less than a few trillion dollars the government could have paid nurses overtime to stay within the facility for four weeks so that they could have been completely isolated. For other elderly people, one could have organized home delivery of prescription medicine (what Australia did) and three prepared meals a day, picked up and delivered laundry, ... you name it.

    Instead, schools were closed and the economy was driven against the wall to prolong the duration of the epidemic and, thus, to prevent effective isolation of high risk populations - all because the scientists trained in assessing the impact (or lack thereof) of public health interventions were not included in the discussion.
     

    There is also a line in there complimenting Australia's corona response, re: "What is Australia doing right?"

    Thanks.

  228. @Steve Sailer
    What happens to old people in Australia?

    This is one of the many things that I hope get reappraised during this health scare, but probably not. Like most obese people who lose a foot to diabetes but still don’t change their lifestyle. Anyway, things that could/should make a comeback:

    1) Education. From the lack of actual teaching at lower grades all the way up to the pure highway robbery of most colleges.

    2) Cramming old people into nursing homes

    3) Filthy, decrepit, crumbling cities

    4) Immigration and manufacturing policies

    5) Traditional nuclear family. At a minimum, eating dinner together before everyone goes back to their corner of the house. Maybe some people reconsider if the rat race is all it is cracked up to be

    6) Trying to have some rainy day funds available

    7) Maybe take some more precautions during cold and flu season (this is probably the only not backwards looking item). Be more Asian with acceptance of masks in public. Medical, not Antifa style.

    I know, I’m probably dreaming given the demographics and societal rot. But now is the time to push on it before we go back to our routines.

  229. @AnotherDad

    Travelling overseas is banned, foreigners aren’t allowed to enter the country, and Australians who return from other countries are kept in mandatory quarantine at specially designated hotels for two weeks.
     
    It's funny how closing borders to Western nations--which we know is absolutely positively impossible, even just to immigrants--suddenly became possible not just for immigrants and foreigners but for natives! ... when we have a virus that kills a few percent of old people.

    --> Old people, a few percent risk of death--shut it all down! absolute border control!

    --> Preserving the nation, people and culture, for posterity--can't be done, the flow can not be stopped, it's a law of nature.

    You’re misinformed. The borders are only closed to natives, not to immigrants.

  230. @dfordoom

    Dude, you don’t have a “legacy of slavery” so of course a bunch of stuff works better.
     
    True. But more importantly we don't have a legacy of Puritanism. Puritanism may be the biggest single reason the US ended up as a failed society. American politics/ideology is formed by a mixture of mutant Puritanism and reactions against Puritanism.

    Australia was fortunate not to get the religious fanatics that the US got. We can be very thankful that the Mayflower headed for the America and not Australia.

    Puritanism may be the biggest single reason the US ended up as failed society. American politics/ideology is formed by a mixture of mutant Puritanism and reactions against Puritanism.

    Australia was fortunate not to get the religious fanatics that the US got. We can be very thankful that the Mayflower headed for the America and not Australia.

    Aussies love to insult the USA.

    As we relax after Christmas and tune in to the Boxing Day Test, it may be worth reflecting on Curtin’s New Year’s message to the Australian people, published in the Melbourne Herald on 27 December 1941. Writing three weeks after the Japanese attack on Pearl Harbor, Curtin declared: ‘Without any inhibitions of any kind, I make it quite clear that Australia looks to America, free of any pangs as to our traditional links or kinship with the United Kingdom.’

    His statement was attacked by conservative political opponents, angered the British Prime Minister Winston Churchill, and astonished the American president Franklin Roosevelt.

    For Curtin was ahead of the US in his thinking about strategy and priorities for the war in the Pacific. Yet his initiative boosted Australia’s defences against the threat of invasion, laid the ground for the post-war ANZUS treaty, and forged an alliance which has been central to Australian foreign policy and defence strategy ever since.

    He defied Churchill by insisting on the return of Australian troops from other theatres; he forged a new military partnership with the US; and he insisted on a role for Australia in decision-making on the course of the war in the Pacific.

    https://www.lowyinstitute.org/the-interpreter/john-curtins-turn-america-75-years

    Come begging this “failed society” for your survival, and yet always attacking it.

    Ironic, huh?

    • Replies: @anon

    Writing three weeks after the Japanese attack on Pearl Harbor, Curtin declared: ‘Without any inhibitions of any kind, I make it quite clear that Australia looks to America, free of any pangs as to our traditional links or kinship with the United Kingdom.’
     
    Curtin also made an Address to The Nation to that effect, viewed as treachery in Washington due to the fact that he had already been informed that America would take responsibility for the war east of Singapore.

    Curtin's defence policies [The Brisbane Line, etc.] made no sense either except as invitations to Japan to come on down and take over, that's the likely reason that the Americans occupied Australia for 3 years.

  231. Hail says: • Website
    @Hail
    Update (April 17) from Knut Wittkowski, on the best measures to have taken to protect the vulnerable, and further comments on the origin of the Corona Big Mistake (the disastrous, unnecessary shutdowns):

    The NYT today reports that many more people died in nursing homes than previously reported. This highlights the problem with isolating everybody rather than focusing on those at the highest risk.

    With much less than a few trillion dollars the government could have paid nurses overtime to stay within the facility for four weeks so that they could have been completely isolated. For other elderly people, one could have organized home delivery of prescription medicine (what Australia did) and three prepared meals a day, picked up and delivered laundry, ... you name it.

    Instead, schools were closed and the economy was driven against the wall to prolong the duration of the epidemic and, thus, to prevent effective isolation of high risk populations - all because the scientists trained in assessing the impact (or lack thereof) of public health interventions were not included in the discussion.
     

    There is also a line in there complimenting Australia's corona response, re: "What is Australia doing right?"

    Updates from Dr. Knut Wittkowski:

    ______________

    A general US update (April 18) from Knut Wittkowski:

    CDC data:

    (1) Nothing was unusual (except, maybe, more deaths among the elderly) about the third flu this season.

    (2) No more hospital visits for “Influenza-like-Infections”. We don’t need models anymore, we have the data: TGIO (and that’s why we now have to wear masks in NYS, the schools and businesses are closed. …

    What data is Cuomo looking at?

    He links to this image:
    __
    And he adds this (April 18):

    Here are the CDC’s data presented at yesterday’s WH briefing:

    [Link to same image as above].

    The number of infections (one week before people go to the hospital) peaked 03-08..15, ie, the epidemic was almost over when NYC closed schools and businesses from 03-17.

    Case closed?

    _______________

    On Australia (on-topic of Steve Sailer’s “What is Australia doing right?”), someone writes to Dr Wittkowski the following:

    What else did Australia do, Knut?

    That’s right, they enforced social distancing, banned non-essential travel, closed down businesses like bars and clubs, banned in-restaurant dining, banned public gatherings of more than TWO people, mandatory 14 day quarantines for not only people entering the country from overseas but also for all people travelling INTERSTATE…

    A lot of essential workplaces are directing staff to work from home, stores are imposing limits on the total amount of customers that can be inside the store at any one point in time… The list goes on and on, and Australia is having great success in limiting deaths as well as the spread of infection despite taking the exact opposite approach that you recommend.

    Knut Wittkowski responds (April 17):

    Actually, the Australian provinces didn’t do all of this and not at the same time. I’m still trying to understand which province did what and when.

    ______________

    On Sweden, someone writes:

    To everyone that is using Sweden as an example of how the United States should handle the pandemic: Sweden has the 11th highest death rate in the world.

    If the United States modeled it’s response after Sweden, there would have been over 49,000 Americans dead by April 3rd (That is the date that matches the number of days after the 100th death in the country that Sweden is currently on because it’s important to note that Sweden is also 15 days behind the United States in it’s curve). It’s currently April 18th and there are 37,289 Americans that have died from Covid19.

    On April 3rd, there were 7,139 deaths in the United States from Covid19. If you apply the same growth rate in deaths that occurred between April 3rd-April 18th in the United States to Sweden’s death rate, there would currently be 194,771 Americans that have died from Covid19. I don’t think it’s wise to hold Sweden up as an example of how to mitigate the Corona Virus.

    Knut Wittkowski responds (April 18):

    Deaths are not a good measure for spread of an age-related disease. Many other criteria can play a role whether somebody dies or not. For instance, Sweden has 20% of people >65 years, the US only 16%. The death “rate” (proportion) also depends on whether you count deaths “of”, “with”, or “during spread of” a virus.

    One of the best data I have seen (in the US) is the number of hospital visits for influenza-like-illnesses:

    [link to CDC image as above]

    Draw your conclusions!

    ___________________

    On the uniqueness of the Wuhan coronavirus, someone (whose other comments support the ‘Wittkowski Strategy’) writes:

    [T]he virus was new so they needed time to study it to know how to treat it.

    Knut Wittkowski responds (April 18)

    Every respiratory virus that spreads is new, otherwise it wouldn’t spread.

    ____________________

    Someone asks:

    Seriously, what’s he chewing?

    Knut Wittkowski sets the record straight (April 18):

    I had a bar of nuts for breakfast because NY diners are shut down.

    _____________________

    Someone comments:

    2 weeks later [after the anti-CoronaPanic Wittkowski interview], more than 30K deaths in total in the US, 3 times the predicted number already…. Not just a normal respiratory disease is it? Will you get the esteemed gentlemen’s response?

    Knut Wittkowski responds (April 18):

    Sure. The CDC predicted 24,000-62,000 deaths for the 2020 flu season ( https://www.cdc.gov/flu/about/burden/preliminary-in-season-estimates.htm ) This flu season seems to have been bad (three flus), but not unusual.

    _____________________

    Someone says:

    The Rockefeller University releases statement concerning Knut Wittkowski

    April 13, 2020
    The opinions that have been expressed by Knut Wittkowski, discouraging social distancing in order to hasten the development of herd immunity to the novel coronavirus, do not represent the views of The Rockefeller University, its leadership, or its faculty. […]

    Knut Wittkowski responds again to this (as he did in longer form before; see above):

    I can’t answer the question why Rockefeller distances itself from science. A month after I published the results suggesting that this flu is just a flu, the CDC publishes the data showing that this flu was just a flu:

    [link to CDC image as above]

    • Thanks: vhrm
    • Replies: @Hail
    A few more updates from Dr. Wittkowski, worth transferring to this medium for easy reference.

    ________________

    Knut Wittkowski writes:

    CDC data shows that there were three flu epidemics during the 2019/20 season, two influenza and one coronavirus epidemic.

    In New York City, restrictions were implemented on 03-17..19, more than a week after number of infections peaked (a week before hospital visits 03-16..22). Hence, the restrictions were painful to New Yorkers, but an L'inutile precauzione (Rossini 1816).
     
    L'inutile precauzione means "useless precaution."

    He refers to this CDC graph:

    https://hailtoyou.files.wordpress.com/2020/04/cdc-influenza-update-for-2009-to-2020.gif

    ________________

    Someone says we are observing more deaths than Wittkowski predicted in his April 1 interview:

    Very interesting perspective, good to get a non-biased view.

    But I am confused about his estimate of deaths. Between 6:00 and 7:00 the doctor breaks down death estimates if the government had done nothing and estimates about 500 deaths per day. Yet with massive quarantines and social distancing etc etc we are seeing 3500 deaths per day. I feel like I am missing something.
     
    Knut Wittkowski responds:

    I was talking about death OF the virus, while the definition (in the US and some other countries) now have changed to first death WITH the virus (heart attack while infected) and then to death DURING the spread of the virus. This alone can explain a lot of the difference between the 10,000 mentioned and the 45,000 estimated currently. Both of these numbers, however, are well within the range of normal flu deaths and thus, would not have justified shutting down the economy at the cost of 22M jobs and trillions of dollars for mere band aids.

    The shutdown was apparently based on Neil Furguson's estimate of 2,200,000 deaths, which the President still referred to in yesterday's briefing.

     

    _______________

    Someone asks, "Aren't we very far off from 'herd immunity'?"

    So why does he think we've already reached herd immunity in these nations? The infected counts as of April 18th are still very low as a percentage of the populations, and even if you estimate 100 times that are yet unaccounted for, that's still only about 3% of the globe, and I thought we need like 60% infected to have herd immunity? Maybe he explained it and I just missed it.
     
    Knut Wittkowski responds:

    Herd immunity is local, developing at different times in different countries, based on the time the virus entered the country.

    A study in Heinsberg, Germany, estimated 15% about 3 weeks ago, which is a long time for a respiratory disease epidemic. It could be well above 50% now. The strongest argument for herd immunity is that the number of new infections (a week before the number of new cases) dropped in most countries before any restrictions were imposed. Hence, the ratio of immune to susceptible must already have been rising to the levels of herd immunity.
     
    _______________

    A Corona-skeptic commenter blames "our leaders":

    Its not the internet reporting false numbers its our leaders and who plus the rest involved in locking the world down
     
    Knut Wittkowski responds:

    I agree, but why are the "leaders" killing the economies? I can see fear spread via the Internet as a contributing factor, although I'm not sure who would have the motive and means to do so.
     
    ________________

    Two commenters get into what I call "Corona Coup d'Etat" territory, the sudden 'shutdown' decisions of mid-March, a domino-effect of disaster:

    So when Trump told the US not to worry. We will be find. Business as usual. He was right.
     

    Yes, and Fauci in February and also the NYC health commissioner too. Somehow there was a sudden about-face based on fraudulent computer models.
     
    To which Knut Wittkowski responds:

    And the New York City mayor del Blasio when he refused to close schools, before the governor Cuomo forced him to do exactly that.
     
  232. Anonymous[145] • Disclaimer says:
    @Unladen Swallow
    Advantages of a parliamentary system, much harder for the bureaucracy and courts to undermine the Prime Minister's directive. Judges have been flouting Trump's directives from the beginning, to say nothing of the bureaucracy. James Q. Wilson documented this a while ago in his book "Bureaucracy"

    Americans like having a weak executive. They’re willing to put up with the problems this causes because they think the alternative will cause worse problems.

  233. @Ron Mexico
    "I’m reasonably intelligent but otherwise an ordinary citizen–no special “intel”–but it was crystal clear that China had failed and i was thinking we’ll have global pandemic and was worried about my family’s personal risk even going through Europe by mid-January."

    Did you shout this from the mountaintops? Contact your local congressperson? Your governor? Tucker Carlson? or did you short the market? Purchase lots of essentials?

    I’m not Another Dad, but I converted all my stocks into cash and bonds, bought a buttload of masks and hand sanitizers, put away a half ton of non perishable food and some other stuff. Not any point at all in contacting a member of government. Even my Fortune 500 company, which is nominally motivated by profit, had not a clue about what could transpire.

  234. @dfordoom
    You're missing an important point. In a parliamentary democracy prime ministers might come and go but the business of government goes on with little or no interruption. Prime ministers in a parliamentary democracy are not like US presidents (who are more like elected monarchs).

    “ not like US presidents (who are more like elected monarchs).”

    Lol! It’s hilarious how little smug foreigners understand the United States.

  235. @Hail
    Updates from Dr. Knut Wittkowski:

    ______________

    A general US update (April 18) from Knut Wittkowski:


    CDC data:

    (1) Nothing was unusual (except, maybe, more deaths among the elderly) about the third flu this season.

    (2) No more hospital visits for "Influenza-like-Infections". We don't need models anymore, we have the data: TGIO (and that's why we now have to wear masks in NYS, the schools and businesses are closed. ...

    What data is Cuomo looking at?
     

    He links to this image:
    _
    https://www.cdc.gov/flu/weekly/weeklyarchives2019-2020/images/ILI15_small.gif
    _
    And he adds this (April 18):

    Here are the CDC's data presented at yesterday's WH briefing:

    [Link to same image as above].

    The number of infections (one week before people go to the hospital) peaked 03-08..15, ie, the epidemic was almost over when NYC closed schools and businesses from 03-17.

    Case closed?
     

    _______________

    On Australia (on-topic of Steve Sailer's "What is Australia doing right?"), someone writes to Dr Wittkowski the following:


    What else did Australia do, Knut?

    That's right, they enforced social distancing, banned non-essential travel, closed down businesses like bars and clubs, banned in-restaurant dining, banned public gatherings of more than TWO people, mandatory 14 day quarantines for not only people entering the country from overseas but also for all people travelling INTERSTATE...

    A lot of essential workplaces are directing staff to work from home, stores are imposing limits on the total amount of customers that can be inside the store at any one point in time... The list goes on and on, and Australia is having great success in limiting deaths as well as the spread of infection despite taking the exact opposite approach that you recommend.
     

    Knut Wittkowski responds (April 17):

    Actually, the Australian provinces didn't do all of this and not at the same time. I'm still trying to understand which province did what and when.
     
    ______________

    On Sweden, someone writes:


    To everyone that is using Sweden as an example of how the United States should handle the pandemic: Sweden has the 11th highest death rate in the world.

    If the United States modeled it's response after Sweden, there would have been over 49,000 Americans dead by April 3rd (That is the date that matches the number of days after the 100th death in the country that Sweden is currently on because it's important to note that Sweden is also 15 days behind the United States in it's curve). It's currently April 18th and there are 37,289 Americans that have died from Covid19.

    On April 3rd, there were 7,139 deaths in the United States from Covid19. If you apply the same growth rate in deaths that occurred between April 3rd-April 18th in the United States to Sweden's death rate, there would currently be 194,771 Americans that have died from Covid19. I don't think it's wise to hold Sweden up as an example of how to mitigate the Corona Virus.
     

    Knut Wittkowski responds (April 18):

    Deaths are not a good measure for spread of an age-related disease. Many other criteria can play a role whether somebody dies or not. For instance, Sweden has 20% of people >65 years, the US only 16%. The death "rate" (proportion) also depends on whether you count deaths "of", "with", or "during spread of" a virus.

    One of the best data I have seen (in the US) is the number of hospital visits for influenza-like-illnesses:

    [link to CDC image as above]

    Draw your conclusions!
     

    ___________________

    On the uniqueness of the Wuhan coronavirus, someone (whose other comments support the 'Wittkowski Strategy') writes:


    [T]he virus was new so they needed time to study it to know how to treat it.
     
    Knut Wittkowski responds (April 18)

    Every respiratory virus that spreads is new, otherwise it wouldn't spread.
     
    ____________________

    Someone asks:


    Seriously, what's he chewing?
     
    Knut Wittkowski sets the record straight (April 18):

    I had a bar of nuts for breakfast because NY diners are shut down.
     
    _____________________

    Someone comments:


    2 weeks later [after the anti-CoronaPanic Wittkowski interview], more than 30K deaths in total in the US, 3 times the predicted number already.... Not just a normal respiratory disease is it? Will you get the esteemed gentlemen's response?
     
    Knut Wittkowski responds (April 18):

    Sure. The CDC predicted 24,000-62,000 deaths for the 2020 flu season ( https://www.cdc.gov/flu/about/burden/preliminary-in-season-estimates.htm ) This flu season seems to have been bad (three flus), but not unusual.
     
    _____________________

    Someone says:


    The Rockefeller University releases statement concerning Knut Wittkowski

    April 13, 2020
    The opinions that have been expressed by Knut Wittkowski, discouraging social distancing in order to hasten the development of herd immunity to the novel coronavirus, do not represent the views of The Rockefeller University, its leadership, or its faculty. [...]
     

    Knut Wittkowski responds again to this (as he did in longer form before; see above):

    I can't answer the question why Rockefeller distances itself from science. A month after I published the results suggesting that this flu is just a flu, the CDC publishes the data showing that this flu was just a flu:

    [link to CDC image as above]
     

    A few more updates from Dr. Wittkowski, worth transferring to this medium for easy reference.

    ________________

    Knut Wittkowski writes:

    CDC data shows that there were three flu epidemics during the 2019/20 season, two influenza and one coronavirus epidemic.

    In New York City, restrictions were implemented on 03-17..19, more than a week after number of infections peaked (a week before hospital visits 03-16..22). Hence, the restrictions were painful to New Yorkers, but an L’inutile precauzione (Rossini 1816).

    L’inutile precauzione means “useless precaution.”

    He refers to this CDC graph:

    ________________

    Someone says we are observing more deaths than Wittkowski predicted in his April 1 interview:

    Very interesting perspective, good to get a non-biased view.

    But I am confused about his estimate of deaths. Between 6:00 and 7:00 the doctor breaks down death estimates if the government had done nothing and estimates about 500 deaths per day. Yet with massive quarantines and social distancing etc etc we are seeing 3500 deaths per day. I feel like I am missing something.

    Knut Wittkowski responds:

    I was talking about death OF the virus, while the definition (in the US and some other countries) now have changed to first death WITH the virus (heart attack while infected) and then to death DURING the spread of the virus. This alone can explain a lot of the difference between the 10,000 mentioned and the 45,000 estimated currently. Both of these numbers, however, are well within the range of normal flu deaths and thus, would not have justified shutting down the economy at the cost of 22M jobs and trillions of dollars for mere band aids.

    The shutdown was apparently based on Neil Furguson’s estimate of 2,200,000 deaths, which the President still referred to in yesterday’s briefing.

    _______________

    Someone asks, “Aren’t we very far off from ‘herd immunity’?

    So why does he think we’ve already reached herd immunity in these nations? The infected counts as of April 18th are still very low as a percentage of the populations, and even if you estimate 100 times that are yet unaccounted for, that’s still only about 3% of the globe, and I thought we need like 60% infected to have herd immunity? Maybe he explained it and I just missed it.

    Knut Wittkowski responds:

    Herd immunity is local, developing at different times in different countries, based on the time the virus entered the country.

    A study in Heinsberg, Germany, estimated 15% about 3 weeks ago, which is a long time for a respiratory disease epidemic. It could be well above 50% now. The strongest argument for herd immunity is that the number of new infections (a week before the number of new cases) dropped in most countries before any restrictions were imposed. Hence, the ratio of immune to susceptible must already have been rising to the levels of herd immunity.

    _______________

    A Corona-skeptic commenter blames “our leaders“:

    Its not the internet reporting false numbers its our leaders and who plus the rest involved in locking the world down

    Knut Wittkowski responds:

    I agree, but why are the “leaders” killing the economies? I can see fear spread via the Internet as a contributing factor, although I’m not sure who would have the motive and means to do so.

    ________________

    Two commenters get into what I call “Corona Coup d’Etat” territory, the sudden ‘shutdown’ decisions of mid-March, a domino-effect of disaster:

    So when Trump told the US not to worry. We will be find. Business as usual. He was right.

    Yes, and Fauci in February and also the NYC health commissioner too. Somehow there was a sudden about-face based on fraudulent computer models.

    To which Knut Wittkowski responds:

    And the New York City mayor del Blasio when he refused to close schools, before the governor Cuomo forced him to do exactly that.

    • Replies: @Lot
    “ Corona Coup d’Etat” territory, the sudden ‘shutdown’ decisions of mid-March,”

    I’m not inclined to attack mid-March shutdown orders too much given the limited information we had.

    Better to focus on lifting them immediately, not that academic debate.

    We are already doing worse than the first year of the Great Depression, and will be worse than the worst year within another two to three weeks.

    Philly Fed on April 15:

    “Third District business activity fell severely during the current Beige Book period, as the COVID-19 pandemic gripped the mid-Atlantic region. From March 19 through March 24, our three states ordered all nonessential businesses to close; by April 1, statewide stay-at-home orders were in place. As of March 29, over two-thirds of the firms reported that their new orders (or sales) had fallen in excess of 5 percent – one-fifth in excess of 30 percent – and one-fourth had shut down

    ...

    Employment contracted sharply. At the end of March, one-fourth of the firms reported that they had shut down – a few shutdowns were permanent. In other responses to the crisis, one-half of the firms ceased all hiring. Employee furloughs, reductions of temporary or contract workers, and reductions of employees' average work hours were mentioned in equal measure by one-fourth of the firms.

    On average, payrolls of staffing firms' placements appear to be down 40 to 50 percent across the District.“

    A lot of businesses are keeping open and paying their staff because of Paycheck Protection Program. The banks stopped taking applications early last week and said the money was gone. If it isn’t further funded within a week, the next layoff wave is going to be gigantic.

    , @Hail
    Update from Knut Wittkowski.

    Someone accuses him of being uncaring about deaths:

    So this Kurt Wittkowski, Ph.D, thinks that letting people die by the hundreds of thousands is better that waiting for a vaccine...maybe he should contract the virus first and let us known how it works out for him. He seems old enough.
     
    Knut Wittkowski responds:

    I want to minimize death by helping at risk people to isolate during the epidemic.

    Why are we discussing nonsensical numbers?

    Like many, I may already immune, and it would be helpful to know how many are, but I don’t live in Germany where population samples are already being screened. The first study showed 15% immune, but that was a few weeks ago, so the number is likely higher now - a big step toward herd immunity.
     
    _______________

    Here is a typical comment from someone challenging Dr. Wittkowski's expertise, someone who assumes he is more expert on the matter than a thirty-year veteran of the field with two relevant PhDs. Specifically, the person is saying Wittkowski is wrong on how "herd immunity" works and wants to set him straight:

    Herd immunity is typically achieved by vaccinating the population, like we did with measles and polio.
     

    the people who subscribe to Wittkowski are the same who are against vaccinations - no doubt flat earthers as well.
     
    Many of the other anti-Wittkowski comments are equally vacuous.
  236. anon[171] • Disclaimer says:
    @Joe Stalin

    Puritanism may be the biggest single reason the US ended up as failed society. American politics/ideology is formed by a mixture of mutant Puritanism and reactions against Puritanism.

    Australia was fortunate not to get the religious fanatics that the US got. We can be very thankful that the Mayflower headed for the America and not Australia.
     
    Aussies love to insult the USA.

    As we relax after Christmas and tune in to the Boxing Day Test, it may be worth reflecting on Curtin's New Year's message to the Australian people, published in the Melbourne Herald on 27 December 1941. Writing three weeks after the Japanese attack on Pearl Harbor, Curtin declared: 'Without any inhibitions of any kind, I make it quite clear that Australia looks to America, free of any pangs as to our traditional links or kinship with the United Kingdom.'

    His statement was attacked by conservative political opponents, angered the British Prime Minister Winston Churchill, and astonished the American president Franklin Roosevelt.

    For Curtin was ahead of the US in his thinking about strategy and priorities for the war in the Pacific. Yet his initiative boosted Australia's defences against the threat of invasion, laid the ground for the post-war ANZUS treaty, and forged an alliance which has been central to Australian foreign policy and defence strategy ever since.

    He defied Churchill by insisting on the return of Australian troops from other theatres; he forged a new military partnership with the US; and he insisted on a role for Australia in decision-making on the course of the war in the Pacific.

    https://www.lowyinstitute.org/the-interpreter/john-curtins-turn-america-75-years
     
    Come begging this "failed society" for your survival, and yet always attacking it.

    Ironic, huh?

    Writing three weeks after the Japanese attack on Pearl Harbor, Curtin declared: ‘Without any inhibitions of any kind, I make it quite clear that Australia looks to America, free of any pangs as to our traditional links or kinship with the United Kingdom.’

    Curtin also made an Address to The Nation to that effect, viewed as treachery in Washington due to the fact that he had already been informed that America would take responsibility for the war east of Singapore.

    Curtin’s defence policies [The Brisbane Line, etc.] made no sense either except as invitations to Japan to come on down and take over, that’s the likely reason that the Americans occupied Australia for 3 years.

  237. I would like to see graphs of severity of case vs measured A, C, and D levels. Dr Shiva thinks they are protective. It would be easy to collect data.

  238. @Anonymous
    8.35 into the video, Hail, crazy eyes begins. Between that and the perseverative chewing (dementia?), something is off about him. I'm not a troll for noticing this, Steve is all about the noticing.

    BTW I have WN sympathies, I like your posts most of the time but on this matter, I don't think this guy is a good source. He makes arguments that don't stand up, which I started on fisking.

    I do not think Wuhan has herd immunity? They locked down way too early and too hard in Wuhan for 90% of the population to have that bug.

  239. @dfordoom

    Yes, "grown ups" who disarm their citizens because, you know, otherwise they'll act like children. Or Americans.
     
    Actually that's precisely the thinking and it's correct. We don't want Australia turned into the US. We have this weird idea that people constantly shooting each other is a bad thing. In the US it's apparently considered a good thing.

    Australians don't need guns to feel good about themselves.

    Australians don’t need guns to feel good about themselves.

    Neither do we. We need guns to protect us from the tyrannical actions of the government. Australian government is as susceptible to faddish thinking and Marxist superstition as any in the West. But when they round you up for the gulag, you will bleat and shuffle off, like the sheep you are.

  240. @Anonymous
    Wittkowski has a serious case of sanpaku eyes (google it) and that chewing of his is unnerving. Something deeply wrong with this guy IMO.

    Appearing normal while talking and looking directly into a video camera is an acquired skill.

    In Knut’s case he’s also pretty old and speaking in his non-native language about a complicated scientific topic.

  241. @Hail
    A few more updates from Dr. Wittkowski, worth transferring to this medium for easy reference.

    ________________

    Knut Wittkowski writes:

    CDC data shows that there were three flu epidemics during the 2019/20 season, two influenza and one coronavirus epidemic.

    In New York City, restrictions were implemented on 03-17..19, more than a week after number of infections peaked (a week before hospital visits 03-16..22). Hence, the restrictions were painful to New Yorkers, but an L'inutile precauzione (Rossini 1816).
     
    L'inutile precauzione means "useless precaution."

    He refers to this CDC graph:

    https://hailtoyou.files.wordpress.com/2020/04/cdc-influenza-update-for-2009-to-2020.gif

    ________________

    Someone says we are observing more deaths than Wittkowski predicted in his April 1 interview:

    Very interesting perspective, good to get a non-biased view.

    But I am confused about his estimate of deaths. Between 6:00 and 7:00 the doctor breaks down death estimates if the government had done nothing and estimates about 500 deaths per day. Yet with massive quarantines and social distancing etc etc we are seeing 3500 deaths per day. I feel like I am missing something.
     
    Knut Wittkowski responds:

    I was talking about death OF the virus, while the definition (in the US and some other countries) now have changed to first death WITH the virus (heart attack while infected) and then to death DURING the spread of the virus. This alone can explain a lot of the difference between the 10,000 mentioned and the 45,000 estimated currently. Both of these numbers, however, are well within the range of normal flu deaths and thus, would not have justified shutting down the economy at the cost of 22M jobs and trillions of dollars for mere band aids.

    The shutdown was apparently based on Neil Furguson's estimate of 2,200,000 deaths, which the President still referred to in yesterday's briefing.

     

    _______________

    Someone asks, "Aren't we very far off from 'herd immunity'?"

    So why does he think we've already reached herd immunity in these nations? The infected counts as of April 18th are still very low as a percentage of the populations, and even if you estimate 100 times that are yet unaccounted for, that's still only about 3% of the globe, and I thought we need like 60% infected to have herd immunity? Maybe he explained it and I just missed it.
     
    Knut Wittkowski responds:

    Herd immunity is local, developing at different times in different countries, based on the time the virus entered the country.

    A study in Heinsberg, Germany, estimated 15% about 3 weeks ago, which is a long time for a respiratory disease epidemic. It could be well above 50% now. The strongest argument for herd immunity is that the number of new infections (a week before the number of new cases) dropped in most countries before any restrictions were imposed. Hence, the ratio of immune to susceptible must already have been rising to the levels of herd immunity.
     
    _______________

    A Corona-skeptic commenter blames "our leaders":

    Its not the internet reporting false numbers its our leaders and who plus the rest involved in locking the world down
     
    Knut Wittkowski responds:

    I agree, but why are the "leaders" killing the economies? I can see fear spread via the Internet as a contributing factor, although I'm not sure who would have the motive and means to do so.
     
    ________________

    Two commenters get into what I call "Corona Coup d'Etat" territory, the sudden 'shutdown' decisions of mid-March, a domino-effect of disaster:

    So when Trump told the US not to worry. We will be find. Business as usual. He was right.
     

    Yes, and Fauci in February and also the NYC health commissioner too. Somehow there was a sudden about-face based on fraudulent computer models.
     
    To which Knut Wittkowski responds:

    And the New York City mayor del Blasio when he refused to close schools, before the governor Cuomo forced him to do exactly that.
     

    “ Corona Coup d’Etat” territory, the sudden ‘shutdown’ decisions of mid-March,”

    I’m not inclined to attack mid-March shutdown orders too much given the limited information we had.

    Better to focus on lifting them immediately, not that academic debate.

    We are already doing worse than the first year of the Great Depression, and will be worse than the worst year within another two to three weeks.

    Philly Fed on April 15:

    “Third District business activity fell severely during the current Beige Book period, as the COVID-19 pandemic gripped the mid-Atlantic region. From March 19 through March 24, our three states ordered all nonessential businesses to close; by April 1, statewide stay-at-home orders were in place. As of March 29, over two-thirds of the firms reported that their new orders (or sales) had fallen in excess of 5 percent – one-fifth in excess of 30 percent – and one-fourth had shut down

    Employment contracted sharply. At the end of March, one-fourth of the firms reported that they had shut down – a few shutdowns were permanent. In other responses to the crisis, one-half of the firms ceased all hiring. Employee furloughs, reductions of temporary or contract workers, and reductions of employees’ average work hours were mentioned in equal measure by one-fourth of the firms.

    On average, payrolls of staffing firms’ placements appear to be down 40 to 50 percent across the District.“

    A lot of businesses are keeping open and paying their staff because of Paycheck Protection Program. The banks stopped taking applications early last week and said the money was gone. If it isn’t further funded within a week, the next layoff wave is going to be gigantic.

  242. Hail says: • Website
    @Hail
    A few more updates from Dr. Wittkowski, worth transferring to this medium for easy reference.

    ________________

    Knut Wittkowski writes:

    CDC data shows that there were three flu epidemics during the 2019/20 season, two influenza and one coronavirus epidemic.

    In New York City, restrictions were implemented on 03-17..19, more than a week after number of infections peaked (a week before hospital visits 03-16..22). Hence, the restrictions were painful to New Yorkers, but an L'inutile precauzione (Rossini 1816).
     
    L'inutile precauzione means "useless precaution."

    He refers to this CDC graph:

    https://hailtoyou.files.wordpress.com/2020/04/cdc-influenza-update-for-2009-to-2020.gif

    ________________

    Someone says we are observing more deaths than Wittkowski predicted in his April 1 interview:

    Very interesting perspective, good to get a non-biased view.

    But I am confused about his estimate of deaths. Between 6:00 and 7:00 the doctor breaks down death estimates if the government had done nothing and estimates about 500 deaths per day. Yet with massive quarantines and social distancing etc etc we are seeing 3500 deaths per day. I feel like I am missing something.
     
    Knut Wittkowski responds:

    I was talking about death OF the virus, while the definition (in the US and some other countries) now have changed to first death WITH the virus (heart attack while infected) and then to death DURING the spread of the virus. This alone can explain a lot of the difference between the 10,000 mentioned and the 45,000 estimated currently. Both of these numbers, however, are well within the range of normal flu deaths and thus, would not have justified shutting down the economy at the cost of 22M jobs and trillions of dollars for mere band aids.

    The shutdown was apparently based on Neil Furguson's estimate of 2,200,000 deaths, which the President still referred to in yesterday's briefing.

     

    _______________

    Someone asks, "Aren't we very far off from 'herd immunity'?"

    So why does he think we've already reached herd immunity in these nations? The infected counts as of April 18th are still very low as a percentage of the populations, and even if you estimate 100 times that are yet unaccounted for, that's still only about 3% of the globe, and I thought we need like 60% infected to have herd immunity? Maybe he explained it and I just missed it.
     
    Knut Wittkowski responds:

    Herd immunity is local, developing at different times in different countries, based on the time the virus entered the country.

    A study in Heinsberg, Germany, estimated 15% about 3 weeks ago, which is a long time for a respiratory disease epidemic. It could be well above 50% now. The strongest argument for herd immunity is that the number of new infections (a week before the number of new cases) dropped in most countries before any restrictions were imposed. Hence, the ratio of immune to susceptible must already have been rising to the levels of herd immunity.
     
    _______________

    A Corona-skeptic commenter blames "our leaders":

    Its not the internet reporting false numbers its our leaders and who plus the rest involved in locking the world down
     
    Knut Wittkowski responds:

    I agree, but why are the "leaders" killing the economies? I can see fear spread via the Internet as a contributing factor, although I'm not sure who would have the motive and means to do so.
     
    ________________

    Two commenters get into what I call "Corona Coup d'Etat" territory, the sudden 'shutdown' decisions of mid-March, a domino-effect of disaster:

    So when Trump told the US not to worry. We will be find. Business as usual. He was right.
     

    Yes, and Fauci in February and also the NYC health commissioner too. Somehow there was a sudden about-face based on fraudulent computer models.
     
    To which Knut Wittkowski responds:

    And the New York City mayor del Blasio when he refused to close schools, before the governor Cuomo forced him to do exactly that.
     

    Update from Knut Wittkowski.

    Someone accuses him of being uncaring about deaths:

    So this Kurt Wittkowski, Ph.D, thinks that letting people die by the hundreds of thousands is better that waiting for a vaccine…maybe he should contract the virus first and let us known how it works out for him. He seems old enough.

    Knut Wittkowski responds:

    I want to minimize death by helping at risk people to isolate during the epidemic.

    Why are we discussing nonsensical numbers?

    Like many, I may already immune, and it would be helpful to know how many are, but I don’t live in Germany where population samples are already being screened. The first study showed 15% immune, but that was a few weeks ago, so the number is likely higher now – a big step toward herd immunity.

    _______________

    Here is a typical comment from someone challenging Dr. Wittkowski’s expertise, someone who assumes he is more expert on the matter than a thirty-year veteran of the field with two relevant PhDs. Specifically, the person is saying Wittkowski is wrong on how “herd immunity” works and wants to set him straight:

    Herd immunity is typically achieved by vaccinating the population, like we did with measles and polio.

    the people who subscribe to Wittkowski are the same who are against vaccinations – no doubt flat earthers as well.

    Many of the other anti-Wittkowski comments are equally vacuous.

    • Thanks: vhrm
    • Replies: @Hail
    Update from Knut Wittkowski (April 19):

    A journalist for USA TODAY, Molly Stellino, just wrote an article claiming that

    (1) “herd immunity ... is typically attained through vaccination, not widespread infection." and that

    (2) “flattening the curve” would “stop COVID-19”.

    https://www.usatoday.com/story/news/factcheck/2020/04/18/fact-check-herd-immunity-would-not-fully-stop-spread-coronavirus/5156368002/

    It’s amazing how high emotions run and false rumors are being spread.
     

    _______________

    Somebody challenges Knut Wittkowski on herd immunity and claims there could be "5.6 million" deaths under that strategy:


    Kenneth G

    HHrrrmmm Herd immunity ...sure 80 % is a great number to achieve this state of natural restriction of the virus spread....but the consequence is 80 % of Americans infected and a death toll of app.2 % hhhrrmmm ... 80% of 350 mill. Americans =280 mill. infected and mortality of 2 % = 5.6 mill potential deaths in USA.... if that goes wrong it could be a dramatic gamble to take....
     

    Knut Wittkowski responds (April 20) (find the series of responses below also at this link):

    herd immunity is already building in the US, Ioannidis' serology study: [Link to Youtube video]
     
    Someone else is not convinced by the herd immunity theory:

    Falco Sirrus

    That study shows between 2% and 4% of the 3000+ tested showed antibodies for Covid 19. How is that herd immunity?

    And that is one specific county (6th most populus) so does not represent the US as a whole.
     

    Knut Wittkowski responds:

    I didn't say that this already "is" herd immunity, I said that "herd immunity is already building". Once started, this process is pretty fast.

    "On 4/3-4/4, 2020, we tested county residents for antibodies to SARS-CoV-2".

    That was more than two weeks ago, enough for, in an epidemic with an R0 of 2.2, R (resistant) goes from 3% to ~25% (that's why I've made the SIR spreadsheet available to you). At that point, the incidence of infections is at about the peak.

    In reality, of course, there are always problems with sampling, sensitivity, and specificity so one has to take this with a grain of salt. One thing, however, is for sure: 2-4% immune people 16 days ago means a lot of immune people now, i.e., herd immunity is already building.
     

    The commenter responds:

    Falco Sirrus

    Then you could say it is "building" even if it was 0.00001%. The figure is low and a study in Iceland showed less than 1% from a sample of 9000 participants. Plus, there appears to be some evidence that we don't gain immunity, or at least long term immunity, from this virus.

    Again, this 2-4% cannot be applied to the US as a whole, because it is one tiny county.
     

    Knut Wittkowski responds:

    Again, why don't you just explore the model a bit, to avoid our time being wasted.

    At 0.00001% prevalence, it would take 3 months to get to ~25%. Even 1% (when was it?) gets us into the days, rather than months range. Just remember, exponential is very slow for a long time. The evidence is overwhelming that there is immunity. Re the duration, nobody knows, but more than just a few months is typical for coronaviruses.
     


    In Gudbjartsson (2020, 03-13 to 04-01), most people tested positive had contact with a person known to be infected, but developed immunity without becoming cases themselves. Only 43% had some symptoms ("rhinorrhea and coughing"), which declined together with "other respiratory infections".

    "The virus has spread to the extent that unless ...[, but no lockdown,] we are likely to fail in our efforts to contain the virus." These results, which were based on data collected even earlier, are also consistent with herd immunity already building. Incidence of new has been declining now for over 2 weeks.
     

    _______________

    Wittkowski also praises comments recently made by Indian public health expert Dr. Jayaprakash Muliyil. Wittkowski writes (April 20), quoting Muliyil:


    "In building [herd immunity] up, we have to reduce mortality by keeping the elderly people away."

    Are this Indian epidemiologist and myself twins separated at birth?
     

    ________________

    Finally, Wittkowski points to the evidence that 'Sweden Was Right,' citing this article:


    Sweden Says Controversial Virus Strategy Proving Effective
    By Niclas Rolander | Blomberg News | April 19
     
  243. Hail says: • Website
    @Hail
    Update from Knut Wittkowski.

    Someone accuses him of being uncaring about deaths:

    So this Kurt Wittkowski, Ph.D, thinks that letting people die by the hundreds of thousands is better that waiting for a vaccine...maybe he should contract the virus first and let us known how it works out for him. He seems old enough.
     
    Knut Wittkowski responds:

    I want to minimize death by helping at risk people to isolate during the epidemic.

    Why are we discussing nonsensical numbers?

    Like many, I may already immune, and it would be helpful to know how many are, but I don’t live in Germany where population samples are already being screened. The first study showed 15% immune, but that was a few weeks ago, so the number is likely higher now - a big step toward herd immunity.
     
    _______________

    Here is a typical comment from someone challenging Dr. Wittkowski's expertise, someone who assumes he is more expert on the matter than a thirty-year veteran of the field with two relevant PhDs. Specifically, the person is saying Wittkowski is wrong on how "herd immunity" works and wants to set him straight:

    Herd immunity is typically achieved by vaccinating the population, like we did with measles and polio.
     

    the people who subscribe to Wittkowski are the same who are against vaccinations - no doubt flat earthers as well.
     
    Many of the other anti-Wittkowski comments are equally vacuous.

    Update from Knut Wittkowski (April 19):

    A journalist for USA TODAY, Molly Stellino, just wrote an article claiming that

    (1) “herd immunity … is typically attained through vaccination, not widespread infection.” and that

    (2) “flattening the curve” would “stop COVID-19”.

    https://www.usatoday.com/story/news/factcheck/2020/04/18/fact-check-herd-immunity-would-not-fully-stop-spread-coronavirus/5156368002/

    It’s amazing how high emotions run and false rumors are being spread.

    _______________

    Somebody challenges Knut Wittkowski on herd immunity and claims there could be “5.6 million” deaths under that strategy:

    Kenneth G

    HHrrrmmm Herd immunity …sure 80 % is a great number to achieve this state of natural restriction of the virus spread….but the consequence is 80 % of Americans infected and a death toll of app.2 % hhhrrmmm … 80% of 350 mill. Americans =280 mill. infected and mortality of 2 % = 5.6 mill potential deaths in USA…. if that goes wrong it could be a dramatic gamble to take….

    Knut Wittkowski responds (April 20) (find the series of responses below also at this link):

    herd immunity is already building in the US, Ioannidis’ serology study: [Link to Youtube video]

    Someone else is not convinced by the herd immunity theory:

    Falco Sirrus

    That study shows between 2% and 4% of the 3000+ tested showed antibodies for Covid 19. How is that herd immunity?

    And that is one specific county (6th most populus) so does not represent the US as a whole.

    Knut Wittkowski responds:

    I didn’t say that this already “is” herd immunity, I said that “herd immunity is already building”. Once started, this process is pretty fast.

    “On 4/3-4/4, 2020, we tested county residents for antibodies to SARS-CoV-2”.

    That was more than two weeks ago, enough for, in an epidemic with an R0 of 2.2, R (resistant) goes from 3% to ~25% (that’s why I’ve made the SIR spreadsheet available to you). At that point, the incidence of infections is at about the peak.

    In reality, of course, there are always problems with sampling, sensitivity, and specificity so one has to take this with a grain of salt. One thing, however, is for sure: 2-4% immune people 16 days ago means a lot of immune people now, i.e., herd immunity is already building.

    The commenter responds:

    Falco Sirrus

    Then you could say it is “building” even if it was 0.00001%. The figure is low and a study in Iceland showed less than 1% from a sample of 9000 participants. Plus, there appears to be some evidence that we don’t gain immunity, or at least long term immunity, from this virus.

    Again, this 2-4% cannot be applied to the US as a whole, because it is one tiny county.

    Knut Wittkowski responds:

    Again, why don’t you just explore the model a bit, to avoid our time being wasted.

    At 0.00001% prevalence, it would take 3 months to get to ~25%. Even 1% (when was it?) gets us into the days, rather than months range. Just remember, exponential is very slow for a long time. The evidence is overwhelming that there is immunity. Re the duration, nobody knows, but more than just a few months is typical for coronaviruses.

    In Gudbjartsson (2020, 03-13 to 04-01), most people tested positive had contact with a person known to be infected, but developed immunity without becoming cases themselves. Only 43% had some symptoms (“rhinorrhea and coughing”), which declined together with “other respiratory infections”.

    “The virus has spread to the extent that unless …[, but no lockdown,] we are likely to fail in our efforts to contain the virus.” These results, which were based on data collected even earlier, are also consistent with herd immunity already building. Incidence of new has been declining now for over 2 weeks.

    _______________

    Wittkowski also praises comments recently made by Indian public health expert Dr. Jayaprakash Muliyil. Wittkowski writes (April 20), quoting Muliyil:

    “In building [herd immunity] up, we have to reduce mortality by keeping the elderly people away.”

    Are this Indian epidemiologist and myself twins separated at birth?

    ________________

    Finally, Wittkowski points to the evidence that ‘Sweden Was Right,’ citing this article:

    Sweden Says Controversial Virus Strategy Proving Effective
    By Niclas Rolander | Blomberg News | April 19

    • Replies: @Hail
    Updates from Knut Wittkowski:

    ______________________

    Facebook and USA Today have declared Wittkowski persona non grata for spreading false information:


    Kevin

    Facebook dubbed Professor Wittkowski statements on herd-immunity as mis-information, quoting a USA Today Article Fact Checking Professor Wittkowski. I thoroughly disagree with USA Today "analysis", but be aware.
     

    Knut Wittkowski responds:

    Thanks! The "fact checker" ruled "the claim that herd immunity would stop COVID-19 rather than flattening the curve to be partly false." I tried to contact the Editor of USA Today to get the facts right, but could not get any response.
     
    __________________________

    A critic calls Wittkowski a "another stable genius," a reference to Trump, and then claims "40,000 Americans have died":


    Johannes Widi

    We seem to have another stable genius here. "10.000 people will die and in 4 week it is over". Not even three weeks later already more than 40.000 Americans have died and no end is in sight. "I'm entitled to actually do science". What a heap of vanity and self-aggrandizing crap that manages to attract over a million likes.
     

    Knut Wittkowski responds April 20:

    First, the US changed its definition of corona death from OF, to WITH, to CONTACT OF SOMEBODY WITH the virus.

    Second, they did "flattening", which shifts the burden from school children to the elderly, ...

    However, both 10,000 and 60,000 deaths are within the range of a normal flu and, thus, do not require shutting down the economy, which was based on one person's guestimate of 2,200,000 deaths.
     

    __________________________


    Someone demands a follow-up interview because of the 10,000 deaths prediction:


    taxsi

    Dear Journeyman Pictures, you have to make a follow up interview with Mr. Wittkowski and may be Ioannidis, but esp. with Wittkowski, he estimated 10k deaths in US but now as of 20th April, 18k just in NYC and 41k in US? What is the problem with the fatality rate of this yet another flu-like respiratory disease?
     

    Knut Wittkowski (April 20) responds:

    It's a moving target, because the US have changed the definition of CORVID death from death OF the virus, to death WITH the virus (car accident while infected), to death DURING the spread of the virus (death in somebody who looks as if he might have been had a contact with the virus).

    The message, however, is still the same: The number of "related" deaths is still within the range of what's normal for a "flu" and, thus, doesn't require any [more] precautions [...] than what's normal for a "flu".
     

    ____________________

    Knut Wittkowski on the evidence for herd immunity (April 20):


    At least to me, the data from Germany (Streeck 2020), Iceland (Gudbjartsson 2020) and California (Bendavid 2020) show that SARS-CoV-2 is spreading without creating recognizable symptoms, but creating antibodies. Hence, we are already building herd immunity.

    Additional support comes from countries or states where incidence of cases or deaths was declining before restrictions were imposed on people. I can't see anything else causing such a decline than the ratio of immune to susceptible people getting closer to the level of herd immunity.
     

    ___________________________

    Someone mentions "acute respiratory distress syndrome":


    Carla Broderick

    This man is not acknowledging the acute respiratory distress syndrome caused by the virus itself, unless he is factoring that in as a rare though real event among deaths, most of which are bacterial pneumonia.
     

    Knut Wittkowski responds:

    I’m not an MD, so I apologize if I’m oversimplifying medical aspects of disease. What I’m trying to do is to motivate the assumptions being made in the models used, that there is an infection, an incubation period, and only then symptoms, most of which are caused by an immune system overreaction, not the virus itself.

    Among the many negative effects of the immune system is one that is well known and understood, which is bacterial pneumonia, which then can cause the patient to die, unless the patient is treated successfully with antibiotics. Understanding the sequence of events, their duration, and the players involved (virus, immune system, bacteria, ... ) are important for the correct interpretation of data (my expertise), but for the details I gladly defer to MDs and other experts. In particular, I do not diagnose or treat patients or give treatment advise to individual.
     

    ____________________

    Wittkowski on why Rockefeller University released a press release critical of him:


    Why a press release? Because Rockefeller receives 1/3 of its annual budget from the NIH, including Fauci's NIAID?
     
  244. @AnotherDad


    As I said in a comment here the other day: the US is a third world country. Literally Upper Volta with rockets.
     
    Oh please. Upper Volta?

    No. We are slumping toward being Brazil ... with rockets. And still have a long way to go on that.

    We are slumping toward being Brazil … with rockets.

    Brazil with rockets is … Brazil.

  245. Hail says: • Website
    @Hail
    Update from Knut Wittkowski (April 19):

    A journalist for USA TODAY, Molly Stellino, just wrote an article claiming that

    (1) “herd immunity ... is typically attained through vaccination, not widespread infection." and that

    (2) “flattening the curve” would “stop COVID-19”.

    https://www.usatoday.com/story/news/factcheck/2020/04/18/fact-check-herd-immunity-would-not-fully-stop-spread-coronavirus/5156368002/

    It’s amazing how high emotions run and false rumors are being spread.
     

    _______________

    Somebody challenges Knut Wittkowski on herd immunity and claims there could be "5.6 million" deaths under that strategy:


    Kenneth G

    HHrrrmmm Herd immunity ...sure 80 % is a great number to achieve this state of natural restriction of the virus spread....but the consequence is 80 % of Americans infected and a death toll of app.2 % hhhrrmmm ... 80% of 350 mill. Americans =280 mill. infected and mortality of 2 % = 5.6 mill potential deaths in USA.... if that goes wrong it could be a dramatic gamble to take....
     

    Knut Wittkowski responds (April 20) (find the series of responses below also at this link):

    herd immunity is already building in the US, Ioannidis' serology study: [Link to Youtube video]
     
    Someone else is not convinced by the herd immunity theory:

    Falco Sirrus

    That study shows between 2% and 4% of the 3000+ tested showed antibodies for Covid 19. How is that herd immunity?

    And that is one specific county (6th most populus) so does not represent the US as a whole.
     

    Knut Wittkowski responds:

    I didn't say that this already "is" herd immunity, I said that "herd immunity is already building". Once started, this process is pretty fast.

    "On 4/3-4/4, 2020, we tested county residents for antibodies to SARS-CoV-2".

    That was more than two weeks ago, enough for, in an epidemic with an R0 of 2.2, R (resistant) goes from 3% to ~25% (that's why I've made the SIR spreadsheet available to you). At that point, the incidence of infections is at about the peak.

    In reality, of course, there are always problems with sampling, sensitivity, and specificity so one has to take this with a grain of salt. One thing, however, is for sure: 2-4% immune people 16 days ago means a lot of immune people now, i.e., herd immunity is already building.
     

    The commenter responds:

    Falco Sirrus

    Then you could say it is "building" even if it was 0.00001%. The figure is low and a study in Iceland showed less than 1% from a sample of 9000 participants. Plus, there appears to be some evidence that we don't gain immunity, or at least long term immunity, from this virus.

    Again, this 2-4% cannot be applied to the US as a whole, because it is one tiny county.
     

    Knut Wittkowski responds:

    Again, why don't you just explore the model a bit, to avoid our time being wasted.

    At 0.00001% prevalence, it would take 3 months to get to ~25%. Even 1% (when was it?) gets us into the days, rather than months range. Just remember, exponential is very slow for a long time. The evidence is overwhelming that there is immunity. Re the duration, nobody knows, but more than just a few months is typical for coronaviruses.
     


    In Gudbjartsson (2020, 03-13 to 04-01), most people tested positive had contact with a person known to be infected, but developed immunity without becoming cases themselves. Only 43% had some symptoms ("rhinorrhea and coughing"), which declined together with "other respiratory infections".

    "The virus has spread to the extent that unless ...[, but no lockdown,] we are likely to fail in our efforts to contain the virus." These results, which were based on data collected even earlier, are also consistent with herd immunity already building. Incidence of new has been declining now for over 2 weeks.
     

    _______________

    Wittkowski also praises comments recently made by Indian public health expert Dr. Jayaprakash Muliyil. Wittkowski writes (April 20), quoting Muliyil:


    "In building [herd immunity] up, we have to reduce mortality by keeping the elderly people away."

    Are this Indian epidemiologist and myself twins separated at birth?
     

    ________________

    Finally, Wittkowski points to the evidence that 'Sweden Was Right,' citing this article:


    Sweden Says Controversial Virus Strategy Proving Effective
    By Niclas Rolander | Blomberg News | April 19
     

    Updates from Knut Wittkowski:

    ______________________

    Facebook and USA Today have declared Wittkowski persona non grata for spreading false information:

    Kevin

    Facebook dubbed Professor Wittkowski statements on herd-immunity as mis-information, quoting a USA Today Article Fact Checking Professor Wittkowski. I thoroughly disagree with USA Today “analysis”, but be aware.

    Knut Wittkowski responds:

    Thanks! The “fact checker” ruled “the claim that herd immunity would stop COVID-19 rather than flattening the curve to be partly false.” I tried to contact the Editor of USA Today to get the facts right, but could not get any response.

    __________________________

    A critic calls Wittkowski a “another stable genius,” a reference to Trump, and then claims “40,000 Americans have died”:

    Johannes Widi

    We seem to have another stable genius here. “10.000 people will die and in 4 week it is over”. Not even three weeks later already more than 40.000 Americans have died and no end is in sight. “I’m entitled to actually do science”. What a heap of vanity and self-aggrandizing crap that manages to attract over a million likes.

    Knut Wittkowski responds April 20:

    First, the US changed its definition of corona death from OF, to WITH, to CONTACT OF SOMEBODY WITH the virus.

    Second, they did “flattening”, which shifts the burden from school children to the elderly, …

    However, both 10,000 and 60,000 deaths are within the range of a normal flu and, thus, do not require shutting down the economy, which was based on one person’s guestimate of 2,200,000 deaths.

    __________________________

    Someone demands a follow-up interview because of the 10,000 deaths prediction:

    taxsi

    Dear Journeyman Pictures, you have to make a follow up interview with Mr. Wittkowski and may be Ioannidis, but esp. with Wittkowski, he estimated 10k deaths in US but now as of 20th April, 18k just in NYC and 41k in US? What is the problem with the fatality rate of this yet another flu-like respiratory disease?

    Knut Wittkowski (April 20) responds:

    It’s a moving target, because the US have changed the definition of CORVID death from death OF the virus, to death WITH the virus (car accident while infected), to death DURING the spread of the virus (death in somebody who looks as if he might have been had a contact with the virus).

    The message, however, is still the same: The number of “related” deaths is still within the range of what’s normal for a “flu” and, thus, doesn’t require any [more] precautions […] than what’s normal for a “flu”.

    ____________________

    Knut Wittkowski on the evidence for herd immunity (April 20):

    At least to me, the data from Germany (Streeck 2020), Iceland (Gudbjartsson 2020) and California (Bendavid 2020) show that SARS-CoV-2 is spreading without creating recognizable symptoms, but creating antibodies. Hence, we are already building herd immunity.

    Additional support comes from countries or states where incidence of cases or deaths was declining before restrictions were imposed on people. I can’t see anything else causing such a decline than the ratio of immune to susceptible people getting closer to the level of herd immunity.

    ___________________________

    Someone mentions “acute respiratory distress syndrome”:

    Carla Broderick

    This man is not acknowledging the acute respiratory distress syndrome caused by the virus itself, unless he is factoring that in as a rare though real event among deaths, most of which are bacterial pneumonia.

    Knut Wittkowski responds:

    I’m not an MD, so I apologize if I’m oversimplifying medical aspects of disease. What I’m trying to do is to motivate the assumptions being made in the models used, that there is an infection, an incubation period, and only then symptoms, most of which are caused by an immune system overreaction, not the virus itself.

    Among the many negative effects of the immune system is one that is well known and understood, which is bacterial pneumonia, which then can cause the patient to die, unless the patient is treated successfully with antibiotics. Understanding the sequence of events, their duration, and the players involved (virus, immune system, bacteria, … ) are important for the correct interpretation of data (my expertise), but for the details I gladly defer to MDs and other experts. In particular, I do not diagnose or treat patients or give treatment advise to individual.

    ____________________

    Wittkowski on why Rockefeller University released a press release critical of him:

    Why a press release? Because Rockefeller receives 1/3 of its annual budget from the NIH, including Fauci’s NIAID?

    • Replies: @Hail
    A very substantial series of Updates from Knut Wittkowski

    Including recommendations for what to do now. He recommends: Open schools immediately, no exceptions. Open businesses now or soon. Protect the elderly.

    Within this series of updates he addresses the 1918-19, 1957-58, and 1968-69 pandemic viral flu strains. He says the expected total deaths from flu in 2019-20 season, of all flu strains (he points out there were also other, unnamed flu strains active this year which also took victims, as always), will be significant, a bad flu season. He repeatedly compares the 2019-20 Wuhan pandemic strain will be most comparable to the 2009-10 Swine Flu strain.

    He proposes the reason for what I call the Corona Big Mistake was that someone named Frankenson "pulled [a huge number] out of his hat that got everybody scared." He says the critical period in the Big Mistake as March 10 to 15, and experts were sidelined as the Panic took over.

    ____________________

    A commenter says "Better safe than sorry":


    victor melendez

    [Wittkowski] say[s] just go about your business[, that] it will come and go like every other respiratory disease but that's not true as several have been disastrous.

    1918-1920 Spanish Flu - 100mil dead
    1957-58 Asian Flu - 1-4mil dead
    1968-69 Hong Kong Flu - 1-4mil dead
    2009-10 Swing Flu - 500k dead
    2017-2018 American seasonal flu - 60K dead
    2019-present Covid19 - 170k and counting in 4 months.

    They have no way of knowing if this is the next Spanish Flu or just the regular flu. I am not an epidemiologist and I suspect no one is the comments is either so....
     

    The commenter says "I am not an epidemiologist." Knut Wittkowski, who is one, responds (April 21):

    During the 1918/19 "Spanish" flue, the world was still devastated from WWI and there were no antibiotics available, yet, to treat the pneumonia that killed most people. This example doesn't fit.

    Among the others, COVID-19 (which is at least halfway through in the Northern hemisphere) may turn out to be similar to the 2009-10 Swine Flu, but not as bad as the 1957-58 Asian Flu and the 1968-69 Hong Kong Flu.

    Nobody talked in 2009-10 about shutting down the economy, which in the US alone cost 22M their job and an yet unknown number of bankruptcies (including many suicides), and $2T-10T for an economic band-aid that could have been used much more efficiently to prevent deaths in nursing centers by improving their funding, among many other worthwhile programs to prevent deaths.
     

    The original commenter responds:

    victor melendez

    Prof, thank you for responding.

    While I am a lay person, the information germane the Spanish flu you wrote said there were no antibiotics for the pneumonia. For this flu, there is no treatment or vaccine for the virus, unlike other flu strains.

    The Spanish flu was H1N1 from my research and we have since developed a herd immunity to that at great cost. Regarding Covid19, the first reported U death was on 29FEB20. We have lost 43K in less than 2 months with social distancing measures. If we allowed the open society and pervasive spread of the virus without those measures, is it possible we could have an issue that occurred in Philadelphia for the Spanish Flu?

    Dr. John Ioannidis seems to agree with you but Dr. Michael Osterholm shares a divergent view.

    Isn't it also possible that people saw what happened by not shutting down the economy during the Swine Flu with that loss of life and said, "Let's not do that again."

    Just because it wasn't done before, doesn't mean it should be approached the same way. Moreover, the current administration continues to state, no one has ever seen anything like this, save that we have in the aforementioned examples.

    Your other points are well-taken. The caveat to that is that those other causes/manner of death are not contagious and are solely the realm and agency of the victim who commits suicide, etc. I welcome your thoughts.
     

    Knut Wittkowski responds:

    Thanks a lot for responding with thoughtful questions, rather than bouts of aggression.

    For other flu strains, neither the vaccines nor the treatments are very effective, and it’s not uncommon for a flu to emerge that wasn’t anticipated. So the situation is not that different with regard to flu vaccines or treatments.

    Also the duration of immunity is unknown, although it must be long enough for the extinction of the virus and probably lasts longer (about 2 years?).

    The expected flu deaths are per season and flu season is typically from December to April. We had three flus this season, so it’s going to be a bad season. I wouldn’t be surprised if it turned out at 100K deaths for all three flus, or even a bit more. But it will not be the 2.2M that are often mentioned, which was never justified and immediately seen as ridiculous by most epidemiologists.

    It’s not that people realized that a different reaction would have been required compared to the Swine flu, it was the number of 2.2M that Frankenson pulled out of his hat that got everybody scared.

    The claim that no body has ever seen anything like this is contradicted by the Swine flu. While it was a different virus, the deaths and some other characteristics are comparable. After the first cases were seen in the US, the epidemic in Wuhan had essentially ended and the number of new cases in SKorea had declined by 90% after running 3-4 weeks - without a lockdown that the SKorean government is proud to have not done despite a lot of pressure. The recommended voluntary distancing, though, which seems to have “flattened the curve a bit”, ie, preventing it from reaching herd immunity right away. Hence, there were about 3 weeks of cases until herd immunity was eventually reached.

    The point of decision (at least in the US) was around March 10-15. At this time, there should have been a discussion involving epidemiologists who could question the Frankenssonian predictions. If that discussion would have had, we would not have had a shutdown.

    What to do now? We need to open schools, as the Leopoldina, the scientific advisopry board of the German government has urged. We should start with children, because they and young adults (teachers and parents) rarely end up in hospitals. At the same time or shortly thereafter we should start opening up businesses. This economy has suffered a lot.

    While we let the epidemic run, we should offer the elderly and vulnerable help with isolating themselves for a few weeks. Let the government pay for delivery of prescription drugs, meals, laundry, ... .

    We should also have paid nurses in nursing homes overtime for staying there around the clock so that the homes could have been completely isolated to prevent the virus from entering. Unfortunately, this was not done, so we have now to find a strategy do the best we can.
    A discussion including scientists with expertise in different areas is something that should have been had around 03-10 needs to start now to prevent even more unnecessary damage and unnecessary deaths.

    Oops, much to long, but thanks for helping with getting this written up.
     

    ___________

    Another commenter says herd immunity is far too risky:


    kim dmg

    He states this is like every other respiratory disease - but what if it isn't? They're finding that putting people on ventilators actually may be causing lung damage and how knows what else they will find out about this condition over time. This virus is supposed to have a couple of HIV like insertions. Would this doctor feel the same about herd immunity for HIV?
     

    Knut Wittkowski responds (April 21), again saying the evidence is that the epidemic is now past its peak in many/most places, and there is no stopping it:

    In most European, North American, and Oceanian countries, the number of new cases per day are declining. The epidemic has run at least half its course.

    Over the last three months, we learned a lot about the disease. For instance, we [know] that infection (even minor ones) are causing immunity (which is not the case with HIV, on which I've worked before). Otherwise the numbers wouldn't be declining in all those countries, irrespective of how and when the governments intervened.

    There is strong evidence for herd immunity building. From all that data, this may be a similar to the 2009-10 Swine Flu, but not worse.
     

    ____________________

    A commenter asks:


    How can I resist!!!??? Please, tell me.
     
    Knut Wittkowski responds (April 21 and urges political resistance against pro-Lockdown political bosses:

    Let your representative know that (s)he is not going to be re-elected if (s)he supports politics that cause unemployment and bankruptcies of small companies - for no reason other than Neil Frankensson's imaginary horror scenario of "2,200,000 deaths in the US". It's not even close anywhere, irrespective of lockdown or not. Hence, the lockdown had no effect that would justify driving the economy against the wall.
     
    ____________________

    A hostile commenter says:


    hastening the spread of the virus to create herd immunity will only exacerbate the load and demand placed on the healthcare system. Do you really want to wipe out the entire medical system? THAT"S THE REASON TO FLATTEN THE CURVE
     
    Knut Wittkowski responds:

    No, it will not.

    Children and young adults don't end up in hospitals, and isolation of the elderly and vulnerable is more effective the shorter the period of separation, e.g., from their grandchildren is.
     

    ____________________


    Some lesser/briefer updates.

    A commenter says:


    I've read things saying that there are people who have had it multiple times.
     
    Knut Wittkowski responds (April 21):

    The media usually focus on the exceptional, rare cases. As an epidemiologist, my focus is on the other 99.9%.
     
    ____________________

    A commenter says:


    Rockefeller univ. is now throwing dirt at him, as does the first official German TV channel
     
    Knut Wittkowski responds:

    I never said I was a professor at Rockefeller. I had an academic career before coming to New York.

    More importantly, which German TV channel are you talking about? Just curious. (They also threw dirt at me when I predicted in the 1990, that HIV would never spread among Caucasian heterosexuals.)
     

    ____________________

    Knut Wittkowski says he is aware of completed/released studies in at least five countries that corroborate herd immunity theory and that the virus is nothing to panic about:


    lugue79

    The study in the Santa Clara county in California, confirms what this gentleman states.
     

    Knut Wittkowski responds (April 22):

    As do studies done in Germany, Iceland, Sweden, and Israel.
     
    ____________________

    Knut Wittkowski on what makes a good scientist:


    Every 4-year old I've seen was a scientist: interested, curious, objective, open, ... Too bad that some people lose it.
     
  246. Hail says: • Website
    @Hail
    Updates from Knut Wittkowski:

    ______________________

    Facebook and USA Today have declared Wittkowski persona non grata for spreading false information:


    Kevin

    Facebook dubbed Professor Wittkowski statements on herd-immunity as mis-information, quoting a USA Today Article Fact Checking Professor Wittkowski. I thoroughly disagree with USA Today "analysis", but be aware.
     

    Knut Wittkowski responds:

    Thanks! The "fact checker" ruled "the claim that herd immunity would stop COVID-19 rather than flattening the curve to be partly false." I tried to contact the Editor of USA Today to get the facts right, but could not get any response.
     
    __________________________

    A critic calls Wittkowski a "another stable genius," a reference to Trump, and then claims "40,000 Americans have died":


    Johannes Widi

    We seem to have another stable genius here. "10.000 people will die and in 4 week it is over". Not even three weeks later already more than 40.000 Americans have died and no end is in sight. "I'm entitled to actually do science". What a heap of vanity and self-aggrandizing crap that manages to attract over a million likes.
     

    Knut Wittkowski responds April 20:

    First, the US changed its definition of corona death from OF, to WITH, to CONTACT OF SOMEBODY WITH the virus.

    Second, they did "flattening", which shifts the burden from school children to the elderly, ...

    However, both 10,000 and 60,000 deaths are within the range of a normal flu and, thus, do not require shutting down the economy, which was based on one person's guestimate of 2,200,000 deaths.
     

    __________________________


    Someone demands a follow-up interview because of the 10,000 deaths prediction:


    taxsi

    Dear Journeyman Pictures, you have to make a follow up interview with Mr. Wittkowski and may be Ioannidis, but esp. with Wittkowski, he estimated 10k deaths in US but now as of 20th April, 18k just in NYC and 41k in US? What is the problem with the fatality rate of this yet another flu-like respiratory disease?
     

    Knut Wittkowski (April 20) responds:

    It's a moving target, because the US have changed the definition of CORVID death from death OF the virus, to death WITH the virus (car accident while infected), to death DURING the spread of the virus (death in somebody who looks as if he might have been had a contact with the virus).

    The message, however, is still the same: The number of "related" deaths is still within the range of what's normal for a "flu" and, thus, doesn't require any [more] precautions [...] than what's normal for a "flu".
     

    ____________________

    Knut Wittkowski on the evidence for herd immunity (April 20):


    At least to me, the data from Germany (Streeck 2020), Iceland (Gudbjartsson 2020) and California (Bendavid 2020) show that SARS-CoV-2 is spreading without creating recognizable symptoms, but creating antibodies. Hence, we are already building herd immunity.

    Additional support comes from countries or states where incidence of cases or deaths was declining before restrictions were imposed on people. I can't see anything else causing such a decline than the ratio of immune to susceptible people getting closer to the level of herd immunity.
     

    ___________________________

    Someone mentions "acute respiratory distress syndrome":


    Carla Broderick

    This man is not acknowledging the acute respiratory distress syndrome caused by the virus itself, unless he is factoring that in as a rare though real event among deaths, most of which are bacterial pneumonia.
     

    Knut Wittkowski responds:

    I’m not an MD, so I apologize if I’m oversimplifying medical aspects of disease. What I’m trying to do is to motivate the assumptions being made in the models used, that there is an infection, an incubation period, and only then symptoms, most of which are caused by an immune system overreaction, not the virus itself.

    Among the many negative effects of the immune system is one that is well known and understood, which is bacterial pneumonia, which then can cause the patient to die, unless the patient is treated successfully with antibiotics. Understanding the sequence of events, their duration, and the players involved (virus, immune system, bacteria, ... ) are important for the correct interpretation of data (my expertise), but for the details I gladly defer to MDs and other experts. In particular, I do not diagnose or treat patients or give treatment advise to individual.
     

    ____________________

    Wittkowski on why Rockefeller University released a press release critical of him:


    Why a press release? Because Rockefeller receives 1/3 of its annual budget from the NIH, including Fauci's NIAID?
     

    A very substantial series of Updates from Knut Wittkowski

    Including recommendations for what to do now. He recommends: Open schools immediately, no exceptions. Open businesses now or soon. Protect the elderly.

    Within this series of updates he addresses the 1918-19, 1957-58, and 1968-69 pandemic viral flu strains. He says the expected total deaths from flu in 2019-20 season, of all flu strains (he points out there were also other, unnamed flu strains active this year which also took victims, as always), will be significant, a bad flu season. He repeatedly compares the 2019-20 Wuhan pandemic strain will be most comparable to the 2009-10 Swine Flu strain.

    He proposes the reason for what I call the Corona Big Mistake was that someone named Frankenson “pulled [a huge number] out of his hat that got everybody scared.” He says the critical period in the Big Mistake as March 10 to 15, and experts were sidelined as the Panic took over.

    ____________________

    A commenter says “Better safe than sorry”:

    victor melendez

    [Wittkowski] say[s] just go about your business[, that] it will come and go like every other respiratory disease but that’s not true as several have been disastrous.

    1918-1920 Spanish Flu – 100mil dead
    1957-58 Asian Flu – 1-4mil dead
    1968-69 Hong Kong Flu – 1-4mil dead
    2009-10 Swing Flu – 500k dead
    2017-2018 American seasonal flu – 60K dead
    2019-present Covid19 – 170k and counting in 4 months.

    They have no way of knowing if this is the next Spanish Flu or just the regular flu. I am not an epidemiologist and I suspect no one is the comments is either so….

    The commenter says “I am not an epidemiologist.” Knut Wittkowski, who is one, responds (April 21):

    During the 1918/19 “Spanish” flue, the world was still devastated from WWI and there were no antibiotics available, yet, to treat the pneumonia that killed most people. This example doesn’t fit.

    Among the others, COVID-19 (which is at least halfway through in the Northern hemisphere) may turn out to be similar to the 2009-10 Swine Flu, but not as bad as the 1957-58 Asian Flu and the 1968-69 Hong Kong Flu.

    Nobody talked in 2009-10 about shutting down the economy, which in the US alone cost 22M their job and an yet unknown number of bankruptcies (including many suicides), and $2T-10T for an economic band-aid that could have been used much more efficiently to prevent deaths in nursing centers by improving their funding, among many other worthwhile programs to prevent deaths.

    The original commenter responds:

    victor melendez

    Prof, thank you for responding.

    While I am a lay person, the information germane the Spanish flu you wrote said there were no antibiotics for the pneumonia. For this flu, there is no treatment or vaccine for the virus, unlike other flu strains.

    The Spanish flu was H1N1 from my research and we have since developed a herd immunity to that at great cost. Regarding Covid19, the first reported U death was on 29FEB20. We have lost 43K in less than 2 months with social distancing measures. If we allowed the open society and pervasive spread of the virus without those measures, is it possible we could have an issue that occurred in Philadelphia for the Spanish Flu?

    Dr. John Ioannidis seems to agree with you but Dr. Michael Osterholm shares a divergent view.

    Isn’t it also possible that people saw what happened by not shutting down the economy during the Swine Flu with that loss of life and said, “Let’s not do that again.”

    Just because it wasn’t done before, doesn’t mean it should be approached the same way. Moreover, the current administration continues to state, no one has ever seen anything like this, save that we have in the aforementioned examples.

    Your other points are well-taken. The caveat to that is that those other causes/manner of death are not contagious and are solely the realm and agency of the victim who commits suicide, etc. I welcome your thoughts.

    Knut Wittkowski responds:

    Thanks a lot for responding with thoughtful questions, rather than bouts of aggression.

    For other flu strains, neither the vaccines nor the treatments are very effective, and it’s not uncommon for a flu to emerge that wasn’t anticipated. So the situation is not that different with regard to flu vaccines or treatments.

    Also the duration of immunity is unknown, although it must be long enough for the extinction of the virus and probably lasts longer (about 2 years?).

    The expected flu deaths are per season and flu season is typically from December to April. We had three flus this season, so it’s going to be a bad season. I wouldn’t be surprised if it turned out at 100K deaths for all three flus, or even a bit more. But it will not be the 2.2M that are often mentioned, which was never justified and immediately seen as ridiculous by most epidemiologists.

    It’s not that people realized that a different reaction would have been required compared to the Swine flu, it was the number of 2.2M that Frankenson pulled out of his hat that got everybody scared.

    The claim that no body has ever seen anything like this is contradicted by the Swine flu. While it was a different virus, the deaths and some other characteristics are comparable. After the first cases were seen in the US, the epidemic in Wuhan had essentially ended and the number of new cases in SKorea had declined by 90% after running 3-4 weeks – without a lockdown that the SKorean government is proud to have not done despite a lot of pressure. The recommended voluntary distancing, though, which seems to have “flattened the curve a bit”, ie, preventing it from reaching herd immunity right away. Hence, there were about 3 weeks of cases until herd immunity was eventually reached.

    The point of decision (at least in the US) was around March 10-15. At this time, there should have been a discussion involving epidemiologists who could question the Frankenssonian predictions. If that discussion would have had, we would not have had a shutdown.

    What to do now? We need to open schools, as the Leopoldina, the scientific advisopry board of the German government has urged. We should start with children, because they and young adults (teachers and parents) rarely end up in hospitals. At the same time or shortly thereafter we should start opening up businesses. This economy has suffered a lot.

    While we let the epidemic run, we should offer the elderly and vulnerable help with isolating themselves for a few weeks. Let the government pay for delivery of prescription drugs, meals, laundry, … .

    We should also have paid nurses in nursing homes overtime for staying there around the clock so that the homes could have been completely isolated to prevent the virus from entering. Unfortunately, this was not done, so we have now to find a strategy do the best we can.
    A discussion including scientists with expertise in different areas is something that should have been had around 03-10 needs to start now to prevent even more unnecessary damage and unnecessary deaths.

    Oops, much to long, but thanks for helping with getting this written up.

    ___________

    Another commenter says herd immunity is far too risky:

    kim dmg

    He states this is like every other respiratory disease – but what if it isn’t? They’re finding that putting people on ventilators actually may be causing lung damage and how knows what else they will find out about this condition over time. This virus is supposed to have a couple of HIV like insertions. Would this doctor feel the same about herd immunity for HIV?

    Knut Wittkowski responds (April 21), again saying the evidence is that the epidemic is now past its peak in many/most places, and there is no stopping it:

    In most European, North American, and Oceanian countries, the number of new cases per day are declining. The epidemic has run at least half its course.

    Over the last three months, we learned a lot about the disease. For instance, we [know] that infection (even minor ones) are causing immunity (which is not the case with HIV, on which I’ve worked before). Otherwise the numbers wouldn’t be declining in all those countries, irrespective of how and when the governments intervened.

    There is strong evidence for herd immunity building. From all that data, this may be a similar to the 2009-10 Swine Flu, but not worse.

    ____________________

    A commenter asks:

    How can I resist!!!??? Please, tell me.

    Knut Wittkowski responds (April 21 and urges political resistance against pro-Lockdown political bosses:

    Let your representative know that (s)he is not going to be re-elected if (s)he supports politics that cause unemployment and bankruptcies of small companies – for no reason other than Neil Frankensson’s imaginary horror scenario of “2,200,000 deaths in the US”. It’s not even close anywhere, irrespective of lockdown or not. Hence, the lockdown had no effect that would justify driving the economy against the wall.

    ____________________

    A hostile commenter says:

    hastening the spread of the virus to create herd immunity will only exacerbate the load and demand placed on the healthcare system. Do you really want to wipe out the entire medical system? THAT”S THE REASON TO FLATTEN THE CURVE

    Knut Wittkowski responds:

    No, it will not.

    Children and young adults don’t end up in hospitals, and isolation of the elderly and vulnerable is more effective the shorter the period of separation, e.g., from their grandchildren is.

    ____________________

    Some lesser/briefer updates.

    A commenter says:

    I’ve read things saying that there are people who have had it multiple times.

    Knut Wittkowski responds (April 21):

    The media usually focus on the exceptional, rare cases. As an epidemiologist, my focus is on the other 99.9%.

    ____________________

    A commenter says:

    Rockefeller univ. is now throwing dirt at him, as does the first official German TV channel

    Knut Wittkowski responds:

    I never said I was a professor at Rockefeller. I had an academic career before coming to New York.

    More importantly, which German TV channel are you talking about? Just curious. (They also threw dirt at me when I predicted in the 1990, that HIV would never spread among Caucasian heterosexuals.)

    ____________________

    Knut Wittkowski says he is aware of completed/released studies in at least five countries that corroborate herd immunity theory and that the virus is nothing to panic about:

    lugue79

    The study in the Santa Clara county in California, confirms what this gentleman states.

    Knut Wittkowski responds (April 22):

    As do studies done in Germany, Iceland, Sweden, and Israel.

    ____________________

    Knut Wittkowski on what makes a good scientist:

    Every 4-year old I’ve seen was a scientist: interested, curious, objective, open, … Too bad that some people lose it.

    • Replies: @Hail
    Updates from Knut Wittkowski:

    __________________

    Wittkowski was a panelist on a webinar, "Covid-19: Must We Choose Between the Economy and Health?" hosted by the American Institute for Economic Research (April 23).

    https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=rV8W3yIDkoA

    __________________

    Back at his original (April 1-2) interview, we find more updates from him:

    A commenter says it is too risky to open schools:


    Esther Batycki

    I get what this professor is saying in general, especially about herd immunity - but when he said let the children go back to school and just separate the elderly, I feel like he is also forgetting all the vulnerable children and adults that die because their immune systems couldn't save them. [...]
     

    Knut Wittkowski responds (April 25)

    As of April 24, only 2% of all NYC cases were 0-17 years old, all 5 cases 0-17 years old who died had preexisting conditions ( https://www1.nyc.gov/site/doh/covid/covid-19-data.page ). You don't need to close schools, just allow children with preexisting conditions to stay home. It's called common sense.
     
    __________________

    Someone implies it is too difficult to take care of the elderly without a shutdown:


    Michelle Nobile

    So WHO takes care of the elderly for FOUR weeks?
     

    Knut Wittkowski responds (April 25:

    Offer every nurse ... $1M in overtime to be locked in with the elderly. It would have been much less than trillions of dollars for economic band aids and social security for 26M people who lost their jobs..
     
    _______________

    roxy gueutal

    Unfortunately “they” say there is going to be another “surprise” attack. Criminals that what these ruling “draconians” are. They need to he stopped
     

    Knut Wittkowski (April 26) on why there will be no huge "second wave":

    With 30% already immune, the next wave, of any, will be minor, at most.
     
    __________________

    Knut Wittkowski endorses the "Dr. Erickson COVID-19 Briefing" from California (broadcast April 22):

    https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=xfLVxx_lBLU&

    The two experts in this briefing slam the Corona Panic again and again, slam the shutdowns (they say they make no sense at all and should end), slam the government response, call for immediate re-opening.

    (Prediction: This is the emerging conventional wisdom; soon everyone will claim they were "against the shutdowns all along.")

    __________________


    Zardex

    So Wuhan quarantine had no effect in preventing the virus from aggressively spreading all over China? It's just the virus naturally didn't like the other parts of China that much?
     

    Knut Wittkowski responds (April 25):

    Blocking trains and cars from leaving Wuhan prevented the spread across China, but not the spread within Wuhan
     
    __________________

    Someone says there are a lot of corona-deaths:


    Heisen Berg

    USA death toll so far, April 24, over 50,000.
     

    Knut Wittkowski responds (April 25)

    Much of them due to changes in the definition of what "COVID related" means, but most of the real COVID deaths could have been prevented by isolating nursing homes after SARS-CoV-2 was isolated (pun intended) in the first Seattle Life Care case on Feb 28.
     
    __________________

    Someone questions Wittkowski's expertise:


    morteza zihayat

    I'm not sure how reliable he is [...] His research concerns Autism based on his website. Now the question is why I should rely on his words as a field scientist.
     

    Knut Wittkowski responds (April 27):

    While at the University of Tübingen in the 1990s, I predicted that HIV would never spread among Caucasian heterosexuals. The prediction that SARS-CoV-2 would be contained through herd immunity was also right. After being head of Biostatistics, Epidemiology, and Research Design for 20 years at Rockefeller, my company, ASDERA, now uses genetic data to develop novel strategies against autism and against age-related (AD, PD, HD, ALS, CVD) and virus (COVID) diseases. What's your problem with somebody using mathematical methods and models to fight diseases?
     
    _________________

    Knut Wittkowski (April 24) on spring defeating the virus (as always happens) and the need to go outside:


    According to today's WH briefing: sunlight, heat, humidity, alcohol, ... are bad for the virus! Who would have thought? Everybody, but the government. Vom Eise befreit sind Strom und Bäche ... Enjoy the beer garden! from 19:17 Homeland Security: https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=zu60uj0_-Nw
     
  247. Dr Knut M. Wittkowski,

    First, I appreciate your input into this dialogue; it strikes me as being very positive.

    Second, please clarify a few things:
    a. Who is Neil Frankensson? I don’t see any reference to him, or his apparent prediction of 2,200,000 deaths from COVID-19 in the USA. (I may have missed a paper or talk in which you referenced this item.)
    b. Also please clarify: Is it correct that your career includes holding, for some time, a position as Senior Research Associate, Departent Head of Biostatistics, Rockefeller University, NYC?
    And that you were previously either employed by or studied/researched in a similar capacity at Tubingen University in Germany, at the Robert Koch Institute? Please confirm (or correct).
    c. Finally, based on your training and extensive work experience, are you able to weigh in on the question of whether this COVID-19 virus is a natural phenomenon, or could it be — is it possibly — a man-made bio-engineered phenomenon?

    Thanks!

    • Replies: @MB
    Dollars to doughnuts, Wittkowski is talking about Neil Ferguson out of the Imperial College,UK. I wondered about that too. Ferguson first said 2-3 million then downgraded it to 100-200k and now?

    Dunno, guy ought to be cowering in place and anti-social distancing with a vengeance. There could be a lot of people looking for him. I wouldn't be even answering the phone if I were in those kind of clown shoes.

    The Imperial College, UK? Glad you asked.
    Aren't they on board with every carbon emission polar bear warming Rube Goldberg scheme the Official Watermelon Propaganda Dept. comes up with?
    IOW self righteous Technocracy in aces and spades?
    Greener than a frog hiding in tall cheat grass?

    , @Hail
    Njall, If you are still reading:

    Since this discussion thread is long since abandoned and will soon be closed, I have copied your question to my website's post on Knut Wittkowski ("A Hero of the Hour, Dr. Knut Wittkowski"), and answered it there to the best of my ability, though I think MB did a good job above:

    https://hailtoyou.wordpress.com/2020/04/27/against-the-corona-panic-pt-v-a-hero-of-the-hour-dr-knut-wittkowski/#comment-38119
  248. MB says: • Website
    @Njall
    Dr Knut M. Wittkowski,

    First, I appreciate your input into this dialogue; it strikes me as being very positive.

    Second, please clarify a few things:
    a. Who is Neil Frankensson? I don't see any reference to him, or his apparent prediction of 2,200,000 deaths from COVID-19 in the USA. (I may have missed a paper or talk in which you referenced this item.)
    b. Also please clarify: Is it correct that your career includes holding, for some time, a position as Senior Research Associate, Departent Head of Biostatistics, Rockefeller University, NYC?
    And that you were previously either employed by or studied/researched in a similar capacity at Tubingen University in Germany, at the Robert Koch Institute? Please confirm (or correct).
    c. Finally, based on your training and extensive work experience, are you able to weigh in on the question of whether this COVID-19 virus is a natural phenomenon, or could it be -- is it possibly -- a man-made bio-engineered phenomenon?

    Thanks!

    Dollars to doughnuts, Wittkowski is talking about Neil Ferguson out of the Imperial College,UK. I wondered about that too. Ferguson first said 2-3 million then downgraded it to 100-200k and now?

    Dunno, guy ought to be cowering in place and anti-social distancing with a vengeance. There could be a lot of people looking for him. I wouldn’t be even answering the phone if I were in those kind of clown shoes.

    The Imperial College, UK? Glad you asked.
    Aren’t they on board with every carbon emission polar bear warming Rube Goldberg scheme the Official Watermelon Propaganda Dept. comes up with?
    IOW self righteous Technocracy in aces and spades?
    Greener than a frog hiding in tall cheat grass?

  249. Hail says: • Website
    @Hail
    A very substantial series of Updates from Knut Wittkowski

    Including recommendations for what to do now. He recommends: Open schools immediately, no exceptions. Open businesses now or soon. Protect the elderly.

    Within this series of updates he addresses the 1918-19, 1957-58, and 1968-69 pandemic viral flu strains. He says the expected total deaths from flu in 2019-20 season, of all flu strains (he points out there were also other, unnamed flu strains active this year which also took victims, as always), will be significant, a bad flu season. He repeatedly compares the 2019-20 Wuhan pandemic strain will be most comparable to the 2009-10 Swine Flu strain.

    He proposes the reason for what I call the Corona Big Mistake was that someone named Frankenson "pulled [a huge number] out of his hat that got everybody scared." He says the critical period in the Big Mistake as March 10 to 15, and experts were sidelined as the Panic took over.

    ____________________

    A commenter says "Better safe than sorry":


    victor melendez

    [Wittkowski] say[s] just go about your business[, that] it will come and go like every other respiratory disease but that's not true as several have been disastrous.

    1918-1920 Spanish Flu - 100mil dead
    1957-58 Asian Flu - 1-4mil dead
    1968-69 Hong Kong Flu - 1-4mil dead
    2009-10 Swing Flu - 500k dead
    2017-2018 American seasonal flu - 60K dead
    2019-present Covid19 - 170k and counting in 4 months.

    They have no way of knowing if this is the next Spanish Flu or just the regular flu. I am not an epidemiologist and I suspect no one is the comments is either so....
     

    The commenter says "I am not an epidemiologist." Knut Wittkowski, who is one, responds (April 21):

    During the 1918/19 "Spanish" flue, the world was still devastated from WWI and there were no antibiotics available, yet, to treat the pneumonia that killed most people. This example doesn't fit.

    Among the others, COVID-19 (which is at least halfway through in the Northern hemisphere) may turn out to be similar to the 2009-10 Swine Flu, but not as bad as the 1957-58 Asian Flu and the 1968-69 Hong Kong Flu.

    Nobody talked in 2009-10 about shutting down the economy, which in the US alone cost 22M their job and an yet unknown number of bankruptcies (including many suicides), and $2T-10T for an economic band-aid that could have been used much more efficiently to prevent deaths in nursing centers by improving their funding, among many other worthwhile programs to prevent deaths.
     

    The original commenter responds:

    victor melendez

    Prof, thank you for responding.

    While I am a lay person, the information germane the Spanish flu you wrote said there were no antibiotics for the pneumonia. For this flu, there is no treatment or vaccine for the virus, unlike other flu strains.

    The Spanish flu was H1N1 from my research and we have since developed a herd immunity to that at great cost. Regarding Covid19, the first reported U death was on 29FEB20. We have lost 43K in less than 2 months with social distancing measures. If we allowed the open society and pervasive spread of the virus without those measures, is it possible we could have an issue that occurred in Philadelphia for the Spanish Flu?

    Dr. John Ioannidis seems to agree with you but Dr. Michael Osterholm shares a divergent view.

    Isn't it also possible that people saw what happened by not shutting down the economy during the Swine Flu with that loss of life and said, "Let's not do that again."

    Just because it wasn't done before, doesn't mean it should be approached the same way. Moreover, the current administration continues to state, no one has ever seen anything like this, save that we have in the aforementioned examples.

    Your other points are well-taken. The caveat to that is that those other causes/manner of death are not contagious and are solely the realm and agency of the victim who commits suicide, etc. I welcome your thoughts.
     

    Knut Wittkowski responds:

    Thanks a lot for responding with thoughtful questions, rather than bouts of aggression.

    For other flu strains, neither the vaccines nor the treatments are very effective, and it’s not uncommon for a flu to emerge that wasn’t anticipated. So the situation is not that different with regard to flu vaccines or treatments.

    Also the duration of immunity is unknown, although it must be long enough for the extinction of the virus and probably lasts longer (about 2 years?).

    The expected flu deaths are per season and flu season is typically from December to April. We had three flus this season, so it’s going to be a bad season. I wouldn’t be surprised if it turned out at 100K deaths for all three flus, or even a bit more. But it will not be the 2.2M that are often mentioned, which was never justified and immediately seen as ridiculous by most epidemiologists.

    It’s not that people realized that a different reaction would have been required compared to the Swine flu, it was the number of 2.2M that Frankenson pulled out of his hat that got everybody scared.

    The claim that no body has ever seen anything like this is contradicted by the Swine flu. While it was a different virus, the deaths and some other characteristics are comparable. After the first cases were seen in the US, the epidemic in Wuhan had essentially ended and the number of new cases in SKorea had declined by 90% after running 3-4 weeks - without a lockdown that the SKorean government is proud to have not done despite a lot of pressure. The recommended voluntary distancing, though, which seems to have “flattened the curve a bit”, ie, preventing it from reaching herd immunity right away. Hence, there were about 3 weeks of cases until herd immunity was eventually reached.

    The point of decision (at least in the US) was around March 10-15. At this time, there should have been a discussion involving epidemiologists who could question the Frankenssonian predictions. If that discussion would have had, we would not have had a shutdown.

    What to do now? We need to open schools, as the Leopoldina, the scientific advisopry board of the German government has urged. We should start with children, because they and young adults (teachers and parents) rarely end up in hospitals. At the same time or shortly thereafter we should start opening up businesses. This economy has suffered a lot.

    While we let the epidemic run, we should offer the elderly and vulnerable help with isolating themselves for a few weeks. Let the government pay for delivery of prescription drugs, meals, laundry, ... .

    We should also have paid nurses in nursing homes overtime for staying there around the clock so that the homes could have been completely isolated to prevent the virus from entering. Unfortunately, this was not done, so we have now to find a strategy do the best we can.
    A discussion including scientists with expertise in different areas is something that should have been had around 03-10 needs to start now to prevent even more unnecessary damage and unnecessary deaths.

    Oops, much to long, but thanks for helping with getting this written up.
     

    ___________

    Another commenter says herd immunity is far too risky:


    kim dmg

    He states this is like every other respiratory disease - but what if it isn't? They're finding that putting people on ventilators actually may be causing lung damage and how knows what else they will find out about this condition over time. This virus is supposed to have a couple of HIV like insertions. Would this doctor feel the same about herd immunity for HIV?
     

    Knut Wittkowski responds (April 21), again saying the evidence is that the epidemic is now past its peak in many/most places, and there is no stopping it:

    In most European, North American, and Oceanian countries, the number of new cases per day are declining. The epidemic has run at least half its course.

    Over the last three months, we learned a lot about the disease. For instance, we [know] that infection (even minor ones) are causing immunity (which is not the case with HIV, on which I've worked before). Otherwise the numbers wouldn't be declining in all those countries, irrespective of how and when the governments intervened.

    There is strong evidence for herd immunity building. From all that data, this may be a similar to the 2009-10 Swine Flu, but not worse.
     

    ____________________

    A commenter asks:


    How can I resist!!!??? Please, tell me.
     
    Knut Wittkowski responds (April 21 and urges political resistance against pro-Lockdown political bosses:

    Let your representative know that (s)he is not going to be re-elected if (s)he supports politics that cause unemployment and bankruptcies of small companies - for no reason other than Neil Frankensson's imaginary horror scenario of "2,200,000 deaths in the US". It's not even close anywhere, irrespective of lockdown or not. Hence, the lockdown had no effect that would justify driving the economy against the wall.
     
    ____________________

    A hostile commenter says:


    hastening the spread of the virus to create herd immunity will only exacerbate the load and demand placed on the healthcare system. Do you really want to wipe out the entire medical system? THAT"S THE REASON TO FLATTEN THE CURVE
     
    Knut Wittkowski responds:

    No, it will not.

    Children and young adults don't end up in hospitals, and isolation of the elderly and vulnerable is more effective the shorter the period of separation, e.g., from their grandchildren is.
     

    ____________________


    Some lesser/briefer updates.

    A commenter says:


    I've read things saying that there are people who have had it multiple times.
     
    Knut Wittkowski responds (April 21):

    The media usually focus on the exceptional, rare cases. As an epidemiologist, my focus is on the other 99.9%.
     
    ____________________

    A commenter says:


    Rockefeller univ. is now throwing dirt at him, as does the first official German TV channel
     
    Knut Wittkowski responds:

    I never said I was a professor at Rockefeller. I had an academic career before coming to New York.

    More importantly, which German TV channel are you talking about? Just curious. (They also threw dirt at me when I predicted in the 1990, that HIV would never spread among Caucasian heterosexuals.)
     

    ____________________

    Knut Wittkowski says he is aware of completed/released studies in at least five countries that corroborate herd immunity theory and that the virus is nothing to panic about:


    lugue79

    The study in the Santa Clara county in California, confirms what this gentleman states.
     

    Knut Wittkowski responds (April 22):

    As do studies done in Germany, Iceland, Sweden, and Israel.
     
    ____________________

    Knut Wittkowski on what makes a good scientist:


    Every 4-year old I've seen was a scientist: interested, curious, objective, open, ... Too bad that some people lose it.
     

    Updates from Knut Wittkowski:

    __________________

    Wittkowski was a panelist on a webinar, “Covid-19: Must We Choose Between the Economy and Health?” hosted by the American Institute for Economic Research (April 23).

    __________________

    Back at his original (April 1-2) interview, we find more updates from him:

    A commenter says it is too risky to open schools:

    Esther Batycki

    I get what this professor is saying in general, especially about herd immunity – but when he said let the children go back to school and just separate the elderly, I feel like he is also forgetting all the vulnerable children and adults that die because their immune systems couldn’t save them. […]

    Knut Wittkowski responds (April 25)

    As of April 24, only 2% of all NYC cases were 0-17 years old, all 5 cases 0-17 years old who died had preexisting conditions ( https://www1.nyc.gov/site/doh/covid/covid-19-data.page ). You don’t need to close schools, just allow children with preexisting conditions to stay home. It’s called common sense.

    __________________

    Someone implies it is too difficult to take care of the elderly without a shutdown:

    Michelle Nobile

    So WHO takes care of the elderly for FOUR weeks?

    Knut Wittkowski responds (April 25:

    Offer every nurse … $1M in overtime to be locked in with the elderly. It would have been much less than trillions of dollars for economic band aids and social security for 26M people who lost their jobs..

    _______________

    roxy gueutal

    Unfortunately “they” say there is going to be another “surprise” attack. Criminals that what these ruling “draconians” are. They need to he stopped

    Knut Wittkowski (April 26) on why there will be no huge “second wave”:

    With 30% already immune, the next wave, of any, will be minor, at most.

    __________________

    Knut Wittkowski endorses the “Dr. Erickson COVID-19 Briefing” from California (broadcast April 22):

    The two experts in this briefing slam the Corona Panic again and again, slam the shutdowns (they say they make no sense at all and should end), slam the government response, call for immediate re-opening.

    (Prediction: This is the emerging conventional wisdom; soon everyone will claim they were “against the shutdowns all along.”)

    __________________

    Zardex

    So Wuhan quarantine had no effect in preventing the virus from aggressively spreading all over China? It’s just the virus naturally didn’t like the other parts of China that much?

    Knut Wittkowski responds (April 25):

    Blocking trains and cars from leaving Wuhan prevented the spread across China, but not the spread within Wuhan

    __________________

    Someone says there are a lot of corona-deaths:

    Heisen Berg

    USA death toll so far, April 24, over 50,000.

    Knut Wittkowski responds (April 25)

    Much of them due to changes in the definition of what “COVID related” means, but most of the real COVID deaths could have been prevented by isolating nursing homes after SARS-CoV-2 was isolated (pun intended) in the first Seattle Life Care case on Feb 28.

    __________________

    Someone questions Wittkowski’s expertise:

    morteza zihayat

    I’m not sure how reliable he is […] His research concerns Autism based on his website. Now the question is why I should rely on his words as a field scientist.

    Knut Wittkowski responds (April 27):

    While at the University of Tübingen in the 1990s, I predicted that HIV would never spread among Caucasian heterosexuals. The prediction that SARS-CoV-2 would be contained through herd immunity was also right. After being head of Biostatistics, Epidemiology, and Research Design for 20 years at Rockefeller, my company, ASDERA, now uses genetic data to develop novel strategies against autism and against age-related (AD, PD, HD, ALS, CVD) and virus (COVID) diseases. What’s your problem with somebody using mathematical methods and models to fight diseases?

    _________________

    Knut Wittkowski (April 24) on spring defeating the virus (as always happens) and the need to go outside:

    According to today’s WH briefing: sunlight, heat, humidity, alcohol, … are bad for the virus! Who would have thought? Everybody, but the government. Vom Eise befreit sind Strom und Bäche … Enjoy the beer garden! from 19:17 Homeland Security: https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=zu60uj0_-Nw

    • Replies: @Hail
    I have posted these updates and some more Wittkowski content in one place, here:

    Against the Corona Panic, Pt. V: A Hero of the Hour, Dr. Knut Wittkowski

    Since I doubt many are still going to be reading this thread, and because I believe these threads all auto-close within four weeks of the original post date, click through to that post for any further updates.

    https://hailtoyou.files.wordpress.com/2020/04/knut-wittkowski-not-paid-by-the-government-entitled-to-actually-do-science-1.png

    https://hailtoyou.files.wordpress.com/2020/04/knut-wittkowski-nothing-to-be-scared-of-about-the-coronavirus.png
  250. @Hail
    Updates from Knut Wittkowski:

    __________________

    Wittkowski was a panelist on a webinar, "Covid-19: Must We Choose Between the Economy and Health?" hosted by the American Institute for Economic Research (April 23).

    https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=rV8W3yIDkoA

    __________________

    Back at his original (April 1-2) interview, we find more updates from him:

    A commenter says it is too risky to open schools:


    Esther Batycki

    I get what this professor is saying in general, especially about herd immunity - but when he said let the children go back to school and just separate the elderly, I feel like he is also forgetting all the vulnerable children and adults that die because their immune systems couldn't save them. [...]
     

    Knut Wittkowski responds (April 25)

    As of April 24, only 2% of all NYC cases were 0-17 years old, all 5 cases 0-17 years old who died had preexisting conditions ( https://www1.nyc.gov/site/doh/covid/covid-19-data.page ). You don't need to close schools, just allow children with preexisting conditions to stay home. It's called common sense.
     
    __________________

    Someone implies it is too difficult to take care of the elderly without a shutdown:


    Michelle Nobile

    So WHO takes care of the elderly for FOUR weeks?
     

    Knut Wittkowski responds (April 25:

    Offer every nurse ... $1M in overtime to be locked in with the elderly. It would have been much less than trillions of dollars for economic band aids and social security for 26M people who lost their jobs..
     
    _______________

    roxy gueutal

    Unfortunately “they” say there is going to be another “surprise” attack. Criminals that what these ruling “draconians” are. They need to he stopped
     

    Knut Wittkowski (April 26) on why there will be no huge "second wave":

    With 30% already immune, the next wave, of any, will be minor, at most.
     
    __________________

    Knut Wittkowski endorses the "Dr. Erickson COVID-19 Briefing" from California (broadcast April 22):

    https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=xfLVxx_lBLU&

    The two experts in this briefing slam the Corona Panic again and again, slam the shutdowns (they say they make no sense at all and should end), slam the government response, call for immediate re-opening.

    (Prediction: This is the emerging conventional wisdom; soon everyone will claim they were "against the shutdowns all along.")

    __________________


    Zardex

    So Wuhan quarantine had no effect in preventing the virus from aggressively spreading all over China? It's just the virus naturally didn't like the other parts of China that much?
     

    Knut Wittkowski responds (April 25):

    Blocking trains and cars from leaving Wuhan prevented the spread across China, but not the spread within Wuhan
     
    __________________

    Someone says there are a lot of corona-deaths:


    Heisen Berg

    USA death toll so far, April 24, over 50,000.
     

    Knut Wittkowski responds (April 25)

    Much of them due to changes in the definition of what "COVID related" means, but most of the real COVID deaths could have been prevented by isolating nursing homes after SARS-CoV-2 was isolated (pun intended) in the first Seattle Life Care case on Feb 28.
     
    __________________

    Someone questions Wittkowski's expertise:


    morteza zihayat

    I'm not sure how reliable he is [...] His research concerns Autism based on his website. Now the question is why I should rely on his words as a field scientist.
     

    Knut Wittkowski responds (April 27):

    While at the University of Tübingen in the 1990s, I predicted that HIV would never spread among Caucasian heterosexuals. The prediction that SARS-CoV-2 would be contained through herd immunity was also right. After being head of Biostatistics, Epidemiology, and Research Design for 20 years at Rockefeller, my company, ASDERA, now uses genetic data to develop novel strategies against autism and against age-related (AD, PD, HD, ALS, CVD) and virus (COVID) diseases. What's your problem with somebody using mathematical methods and models to fight diseases?
     
    _________________

    Knut Wittkowski (April 24) on spring defeating the virus (as always happens) and the need to go outside:


    According to today's WH briefing: sunlight, heat, humidity, alcohol, ... are bad for the virus! Who would have thought? Everybody, but the government. Vom Eise befreit sind Strom und Bäche ... Enjoy the beer garden! from 19:17 Homeland Security: https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=zu60uj0_-Nw
     

    I have posted these updates and some more Wittkowski content in one place, here:

    Against the Corona Panic, Pt. V: A Hero of the Hour, Dr. Knut Wittkowski

    Since I doubt many are still going to be reading this thread, and because I believe these threads all auto-close within four weeks of the original post date, click through to that post for any further updates.

  251. Hail says: • Website
    @Njall
    Dr Knut M. Wittkowski,

    First, I appreciate your input into this dialogue; it strikes me as being very positive.

    Second, please clarify a few things:
    a. Who is Neil Frankensson? I don't see any reference to him, or his apparent prediction of 2,200,000 deaths from COVID-19 in the USA. (I may have missed a paper or talk in which you referenced this item.)
    b. Also please clarify: Is it correct that your career includes holding, for some time, a position as Senior Research Associate, Departent Head of Biostatistics, Rockefeller University, NYC?
    And that you were previously either employed by or studied/researched in a similar capacity at Tubingen University in Germany, at the Robert Koch Institute? Please confirm (or correct).
    c. Finally, based on your training and extensive work experience, are you able to weigh in on the question of whether this COVID-19 virus is a natural phenomenon, or could it be -- is it possibly -- a man-made bio-engineered phenomenon?

    Thanks!

    Njall, If you are still reading:

    Since this discussion thread is long since abandoned and will soon be closed, I have copied your question to my website’s post on Knut Wittkowski (“A Hero of the Hour, Dr. Knut Wittkowski“), and answered it there to the best of my ability, though I think MB did a good job above:

    https://hailtoyou.wordpress.com/2020/04/27/against-the-corona-panic-pt-v-a-hero-of-the-hour-dr-knut-wittkowski/#comment-38119

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