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From the U. of Chicago:
January 2017
University of Chicago Crime Lab
… Between 2015 and 2016, Chicago experienced 58 percent more homicides and 43 percent more non-fatal shootings. Annual increases of this size are not unprecedented among American cities, particularly in recent years, but are rare for a city of Chicago’s size.
One striking feature of Chicago’s increase in gun violence is how sudden it was: as of December 2015, there was no indication that gun violence was on the verge of rising sharply. But in January 2016, homicides and shootings surged relative to their 2015 levels and remained higher in almost every month that followed, threatening 20 years of progress on violent crime in Chicago. …
What caused Chicago’s sudden surge in gun violence in 2016 remains a puzzle. Weather cannot explain the surge in homicides and shootings, since monthly temperatures in 2016 were close to their historical averages. City spending on social services and public education did not change much in 2016 compared to previous years, and while the state budget impasse disrupted funding for many community organizations, this did not seem to change sharply in December 2015.
Another form of police activity that declined in 2016 is street stops. Chicago police recorded over 80 percent fewer stops in January 2016 than they had in November 2015. This drop, from an average of over 50,000 stops per month in 2015 (through November) to approximately 10,000 stops per month starting in early 2016, began a few months before rates of gun violence in Chicago began to increase. What caused the decline is itself unclear.
Several frequently-mentioned candidate explanations—the release of video footage showing the shooting by a CPD officer of teenager Laquan McDonald, announcement of a U.S. Department of Justice (DOJ) investigation of CPD, implementation of an agreement between the City and the American Civil Liberties Union (ACLU) concerning street stops, and a new state law regarding street stops—all happened essentially within a few weeks of each other in late 2015 and early 2016.
Well, there’s your problem(s), Chicago.
It’s really simple. Democrat pols would rather let blacks kill each other, and get a moderate amount of bad press from it, than crack down on blacks, save black lives, get a larger amount of bad press from it, and raise the ire of the black political leadership. I may be leaving something out, but I’d guess that’s the basic math involved.
Because the solution is really simple, if all they want to do is prevent blacks from shooting each other quite so much; stop-frisk-confiscate. Blacks can’t afford to replace their illegal guns at the rate that authorities can afford to find and confiscate them.
Here is my +1.
Furthermore, could these communities be granted more home rule autonomy, that is their own citizens provide themselves the quantity and quality of policing they desire and accordingly live with the consequences?
If outsiders know it's going to be lawless, they don't need to go?
Applying a little street justice to some of the more "exuberant" lads,a little persuasion?
Exogenous factors are always tricky, especially the self-inflicted ones.
It’s a mystery, Steve. It is fundamentally unknowable. You should turn your attention to a social problem that is much more straight-forward and simple to solve, like………….closing the gap.
According to that graph, street stops – i.e. flagrant acts of police racism – decreased by a factor of six within three months. So why doesn’t the CPD get credit for becoming a lot less racist?
It seems to me that it wouldn’t be terribly difficult to do a regression analysis involving street stops and rates of homicide and perhaps aggravated assault. My working hypothesis would be the more aggressive the police are in street stops, the lower the rates of homicide and aggravated assault. If you take guns off the street, even in unconstitutional searches that result in no prosecutions, the guns aren’t available for later impulse shootings. Gun control advocates may be onto something here, although, as Steve has noted, they don’t like to admit that their strategy should target urban blacks and not rural or small-town whites.
It’s engaging to see that in this quote:
they appear to be admitting that our immense commitment to “social services, public education, & community organizations” has no impact on the violent crime rate at all. There is not even the usual attempt at a dubious argument.
I look forward to this important fact being widely disseminated. Shortly after that, I would expect a fundamental change in the focus and direction of our social policy.
Should this not happen, I might come to suspect that certain political arrangements have been sold to me under false pretenses. This would undermine trust in our government and leadership class, and we certainly can’t have any of that.
Jack D, that uh golf course architecture article is almost coming up. We just have to cycle through the rest of the current batch of Jewish, female, and uh black articles… Those blacks man. Did you know that they commit violent crimes at disproportionate rates? And you know what else? They commit violent crimes at vastly uh disproportionate rates…
Exactly.
I scanned that document. It’s a remarkable exercise in identifying the obvious truth (it is in there), then spending dozens of pages and no doubt hundreds or even thousands of man-hours obfuscating that truth.
The campaign to blame guns for crime clearly goes on apace.
At least they didn’t blame it on climate change.
sealake level rise. This causes gun stashes to rust a lot quicker, ruining the bluing and clogging the action withsealakeweed and the minorities just don't have the affluence and privilege to just get that stuff fixed. They will then buy newer and better working fire-arms, wait ... Now, the current rash of hurricanes caused by Global Climate Disruption(TM) is another factor, as anytime looting takes place, violence unexpectedly goes along with it. The racism seen during some of these Chicago-based hurricanes is all due to the lack of respeck for a looter-gatherer culture. More money is needed for ... whatever. It's the best I got on short notice... needs work, I know.Maybe it’s time to unleash Michelle Obama’s skills to solve this otherwise intractable Chicago problem. Just as she previously did with her very lucrative sinecure at the University of Chicago Medical Center.
Yes, the internal exogenous factors are especially tricky.
Black Chicagoans were subjected to 72% of all stops. Black Chicagoans were and are subjected to 80% of all homicides.
This ‘groundbreaking’ agreement was augmented with new state laws on police conduct also requiring ISR’s. Incident Stop Reports. http://www.illinoissenatedemocrats.com/component/tags/tag/252-sb1304
Look at those smiling faces. This was the tipping point for the Late Obama Age collapse of Chicago’s most disordered neighborhoods.
And don’t forget — it was within memory that Black Chicagoans demanded law and order to deal with the drug and crime epidemics — and ended up with the prison/industrial complex.
Expensive and complex ‘solutions’ have a multi decade history of failing to solve the problems of Chicago’s most disordered and disadvantaged neighborhoods.
Building and then tearing down projects comes to mind.
Another stab at reform quickly backfires and results in carnage. Is anyone surprised?
Because the solution is really simple, if all they want to do is prevent blacks from shooting each other quite so much; stop-frisk-confiscate. Blacks can't afford to replace their illegal guns at the rate that authorities can afford to find and confiscate them.Replies: @Thin-Skinned Masta-Beta, @Father O'Hara, @nebulafox, @MBlanc46
My agree button wasn’t working.
Here is my +1.
Furthermore, could these communities be granted more home rule autonomy, that is their own citizens provide themselves the quantity and quality of policing they desire and accordingly live with the consequences?
If outsiders know it’s going to be lawless, they don’t need to go?
A friend who’s a sergeant with CPD told me at the time that it was the new, ACLU-negotiated paperwork required for each street stop that was discouraging proactive policing. Although the new form was long and tedious, the thing that most discouraged street stops was that officers knew they were filling out the form for the purpose of helping the ACLU make the case that CPD policing was racist.
A side-by-side comparison of the old “contact cards” and the new forms can be seen here.
https://www.dnainfo.com/chicago/20160115/englewood/decline-chicago-police-stops-signal-bigger-problem-than-more-paperwork
Those cards were such a disaster for productivity that CPD shortened them just a few months later, but not by much. “Instead of being two pages, the new stop reports will be reduced to 1-1/2 pages. . . . And instead of filling out three different narratives in the report to justify the stops, officers will only have to fill out one narrative field, according to the ACLU.”
http://www.chicagotribune.com/news/ct-investigatory-stop-form-replaced-20160223-story.html
OT.
Hef is dead.
– So, Steve, what are all your juicy secret goodies that you’ve been promising us?
I dunno. Seems awfully dismissive of a possible connection to climate change.
Wasn’t it around January 2016 that Trump indicated he intended to pull out of the Paris climate accords?
And what does NASA have to say about all this?
Sail on Sailer (Beach boys)
“Several frequently-mentioned candidate explanations”
Several more
Chicago has more retired police and firefighters than working – WP Original
http://www.wirepoints.com/upside-down-demographics-of-chicago-public-safety-pensions-wp-original/
See pensiontsunami.com
except the Lord keep the city, the watchman waketh but in vain. Psalm 127
See biblegateway.com
Since the New York Times piece a couple days ago about the second year homicide rise, it’s become clear that the tone of the public discussion overall on this topic has finally been forced to accept reality over the last couple of years, from “Ferguson effect? Pshaw!” to a grudging “yeah, that’s probably what happened, but whaddya whaddya?”
Police should stop a lot of old white ladies.
That will solve the problem.
A side-by-side comparison of the old "contact cards" and the new forms can be seen here.
https://www.dnainfo.com/chicago/20160115/englewood/decline-chicago-police-stops-signal-bigger-problem-than-more-paperwork
Those cards were such a disaster for productivity that CPD shortened them just a few months later, but not by much. "Instead of being two pages, the new stop reports will be reduced to 1-1/2 pages. . . . And instead of filling out three different narratives in the report to justify the stops, officers will only have to fill out one narrative field, according to the ACLU."
http://www.chicagotribune.com/news/ct-investigatory-stop-form-replaced-20160223-story.htmlReplies: @Bugg, @Negrolphin Pool
Way easier to simply show up in the aftermath of a shooting and take a report than go through to tedious nonsense of stopping dirtbags before the shooting starts. You can either have proactive policing and some whiny street skells complaining about cops, or daily gunfire and mayhem. Pick one.
Figure 37 makes the need so resonatingly crystal clear I’m surprised that every yoga lady in California isn’t turning up here:
Chicago needs more gun control!
Examples please?
Betcha it’s never happened before.
New York City, 2000 vs. 2001. Orlando, 2015 vs. 2016. Marseilles, 2015 vs. 2016. Paris, 2014 vs. 2015.
But we'd rather not discuss that.Replies: @Anonymous
When was the last time in US history that bad government policy has so clearly and obviously been linked to an increase in deaths (not counting things like, oh, the war in Iraq)?
Time and time again leftists, especially the ACLU, attempt to destroy the criminal justice system on behalf of “oppressed minorities” only to drive up real violence against them. The ACLU has killed more people and destroyed more neighborhoods than the Ku Klux Klan, but they will never, ever be called a hate group and will never, ever be blamed for it.
Right, Michelle fixed the diversity crisis there. Helluva bargain for her $300,000 salary. Her degree in …. I forget, but i remember she graduated Princeton but struggled w spelling (picky!). In any case she was a miracle worker man think what things would have been w/out her brilliant admin skills. Screwed, thats what.
Wasn't it around January 2016 that Trump indicated he intended to pull out of the Paris climate accords?
And what does NASA have to say about all this?Replies: @Buck Turgidson
Fully agree! How can they just blow off climate change like that? If NSF would dump a few more million into this im sure some climo-psychologist would figure this out.
“Betcha it’s never happened before.”
New York City, 2000 vs. 2001. Orlando, 2015 vs. 2016. Marseilles, 2015 vs. 2016. Paris, 2014 vs. 2015.
But we’d rather not discuss that.
Meanwhile, back on topic, negroes nationwide have expressed their thoroughgoing contempt for police efforts to keep them from killing each other. I say it's only natural -- and about time -- that the police let the negroes have their way.
Because the solution is really simple, if all they want to do is prevent blacks from shooting each other quite so much; stop-frisk-confiscate. Blacks can't afford to replace their illegal guns at the rate that authorities can afford to find and confiscate them.Replies: @Thin-Skinned Masta-Beta, @Father O'Hara, @nebulafox, @MBlanc46
And what about what used to be known in some circles as a “tune up?
Applying a little street justice to some of the more “exuberant” lads,a little persuasion?
Chicago needs more gun control!Replies: @Father O'Hara
We need Negro control!
New York City, 2000 vs. 2001. Orlando, 2015 vs. 2016. Marseilles, 2015 vs. 2016. Paris, 2014 vs. 2015.
But we'd rather not discuss that.Replies: @Anonymous
I see what you did there.
Meanwhile, back on topic, negroes nationwide have expressed their thoroughgoing contempt for police efforts to keep them from killing each other. I say it’s only natural — and about time — that the police let the negroes have their way.
Many of the individuals who have been killed as the result of depolicing were criminals who lost at the game they were all too willing to play. But even more gratifying is the likelihood that more than a few of the new victims were non-criminals per se who supported the depolicing movement. Even a black of average black IQ could likely have easily predicted that depolicing would lead to more crime. And the continued existence of BLM today even after years of data showing depolicing leads to more dead blacks tells us that black lives don’t really matter to Black Lives Matter. Perhaps the most charitable assumption is that non-criminal blacks (certainly a relative term) involved in or supportive of BLM simply want a decreased chance of being hassled by police, and that they know that most of the increase in crime will affect “victims” already heavily involved in crime.
Clearly too many social services and not enough social media. I’m surprised Tim Cook and Mark Zuckerberg haven’t lobbied harder for state-issued iPhones and data plans to keep these people occupied. Jeff Bezos is doing his part with discounted Amazon Prime for them.
Trump needs to do a round-table with CEOs … to make America something, again … whatever.
They would stand to gain a lot, and an iPhone and an Xbox cost a lot less than trauma surgery and housing inmates in Cook County for years on end.
Time and time again leftists, especially the ACLU, attempt to destroy the criminal justice system on behalf of "oppressed minorities" only to drive up real violence against them. The ACLU has killed more people and destroyed more neighborhoods than the Ku Klux Klan, but they will never, ever be called a hate group and will never, ever be blamed for it.Replies: @anon
What is most remarkable is that the laws and policies became effective on 1/1/2016. And getting good, clean dadt on homicide by race is not easy. However, this study displays it in detail and it ties in to accepted aggregate figures. You will not find this data broken out by race in the FBI crime figures. There has been a passive and then active attempt to divert attention to aggregate crime statistics by race.
The Baltimore homicide frenzy can also be ascribed to the date of the riot following the Freddy Gray protests. It isn’t especially useful to get the data by race in Baltimore since no one seriously considered that it wasn’t virtually entirely Black. There isn’t the possible confounding impact of Mexican/Hispanic homicide and Baltimore is less diverse. However, the homicide increase corresponds to the date of the riots.
I would say that there have been worse policy decisions but few or none that are both this large and clearly follow a single precipitating policy change. The expansion of welfare and breakdown of the black nuclear family was awful policy but was more gradual and included multi year public housing construction projects.
I feel bad for the regular people who live in those neighborhoods. It is terrifying. Usually, the violence is directed at each other, but still. Imagine being the poor grandmother who has to send her grandkids off to school every day. You have no understanding of why this is happening, and no way to stop it. You want more cops, and really don’t care if once in awhile they get too rough when they are dealing with drug dealers and gangbangers. Instead, your government discourages effective police work, resulting in more violence, drugs, and disorder. In my work, I meet a lot of people like this, and have seen a few cases where they are the ones pointing out which way the bad guy went or even opening the door for the cops to come grab their grandson after he ran into the house to hide from the cops.
Every dead gang member in Chicago means one less black being shipped out to Iowa on section 8. Since these guys are high status in their shitty communities, they tend to get girls pregnant, there’s probably even a multiplier. One dead in Chicago is probable 3+ less future blacks in Iowa.
Why would we want to stop this? Black Lives Matter! De-police the ghetto! Whose streets? Their streets!
“Democrat pols would rather let blacks kill each other, and get a moderate amount of bad press from it,…”
You left out “and blame the violence on racism emanating from rural white people and the national anthem”.
Long term, public housing people will be living on reservations in the sticks.
Build a wall around it, drop pallet loads of guns and ammunition, let nature take its course…
Because the solution is really simple, if all they want to do is prevent blacks from shooting each other quite so much; stop-frisk-confiscate. Blacks can't afford to replace their illegal guns at the rate that authorities can afford to find and confiscate them.Replies: @Thin-Skinned Masta-Beta, @Father O'Hara, @nebulafox, @MBlanc46
Like *many* of our national problems, there is a political incentive for both parties to make a lot of hay out of an issue and apply cosmetics (some which further politically polarize the nation), but not actually… fix it.
If the GOP were smart, they’d ditch the religious freaks and announce a newfound commitment to family planning in inner city neighborhoods and barrios. Tie in building an abortion clinic on every block, education and later marriage for women, and active contraceptive use with welfare benefits. Empowerment, baby.
What can the Democrats do about it? They can’t be against helping poor women control their reproductive destinies. They certainly can’t be against abortion laws. Makes perfect sense. Of course, if the GOP were actually interesting in winning, they would have also ditched the Norquist style free market fetishists a long time ago, too, in addition to the neocons (whose opposition to Trump ended up… helping Trump among the GOP base), but that’s another story.
I should also point out that an economic platform more geared to the interests of ordinary Americans over billionaires (who mostly support Democrats anyway) isn’t a bad way of picking up some more Hispanics on the side, too. Probably more than you’d get with Chamber of Commerce economic fantasies combined with amnesty, as per Karl Rove. And up until the 1990s, when they began to go off the reservation, the GOP actually won a majority of Asian-Americans.
Well smartass, Obviously outside the readers of a few Sailer like writers its clear very few do understand the facts that ought to drive our social policy. Everything we do is the exact opposite of what we ought to and we are now in a multi faceted existential crisis because of it, and still clueless.
Well, the writer just in this excerpt, admitted that the summer of ’16 was not any warmer than the summer of ’15. But, remember, y’all WEATHER IS NOT CLIMATE! The climate, as any ex-vice-president with a house on the California coast can tell you, is causing
sealake level rise. This causes gun stashes to rust a lot quicker, ruining the bluing and clogging the action withsealakeweed and the minorities just don’t have the affluence and privilege to just get that stuff fixed. They will then buy newer and better working fire-arms, wait …Now, the current rash of hurricanes caused by Global Climate Disruption(TM) is another factor, as anytime looting takes place, violence unexpectedly goes along with it. The racism seen during some of these Chicago-based hurricanes is all due to the lack of respeck for a looter-gatherer culture. More money is needed for … whatever.
It’s the best I got on short notice… needs work, I know.
@#32 27 year old: “Why would we want to stop this? Black Lives Matter! De-police the ghetto! Whose streets? Their streets!”
This. While I may have an intrinsic dislike of chronic chaos and disorder and criminality and licentious “freedom,” I cannot find it within me to give a quantum of a damn about Negroes and their self-inflicted problems. If it all traces back to genetics – even including environment per epigenetics – as HBD demonstrably teaches and I believe, then take it up with God. Not a problem of my creation and not any potential solution involving my responsibility.
For those who might call that stance “unChristian” (usually those who explicitly deny Christ’s divinity plus the standard churchian Jesus=nice crowd), I would advise re-reading the parable of the Good Samaritan, and exploring specifically what Christ intended by his use of “neighbor,” or “fellow.” Go back to the Greek and learned views of the time, and then get back to me.
tl;dr: I don’t care. Neither do most normal people (which explicitly excludes Whites afflicted with guilt for existing).
Steve, would you please do a post on castration, eunuchs, and foot-binding, so Kato will shut up?
Freedom isn’t free
Naw there’s a hefty fuckin fee
Means Kato spoutin shit at thee
That’s the thing; it’s never “Chicago needs more gun control!” It’s always “America needs more gun control!” Leftists run Chicago and Illinois, they are free to crack down on guns, enact tough gun laws, etc. Obviously that’s not what leftists want, though. For some reason, what leftists want is to pivot from leftist-run cities’ crime problems to taking away white people’s long guns.
Yeah the Ferguson Effect alone has killed more Blacks than the KKK ever did. Imagine if white racists killed over a thousand blacks in a year; the USA would literally crap its pants. The Big Media circus would make Trump Derangement Syndrome look like teatime.
Oh, that’s good.
Good catch. I missed that.
A side-by-side comparison of the old "contact cards" and the new forms can be seen here.
https://www.dnainfo.com/chicago/20160115/englewood/decline-chicago-police-stops-signal-bigger-problem-than-more-paperwork
Those cards were such a disaster for productivity that CPD shortened them just a few months later, but not by much. "Instead of being two pages, the new stop reports will be reduced to 1-1/2 pages. . . . And instead of filling out three different narratives in the report to justify the stops, officers will only have to fill out one narrative field, according to the ACLU."
http://www.chicagotribune.com/news/ct-investigatory-stop-form-replaced-20160223-story.htmlReplies: @Bugg, @Negrolphin Pool
Someone needs to remind the ACLU and the schoolmarm administrators forcing 7th grade homework assignments on city cops every time they do their job of the abiding truth that you can have blacks, order or civil rights: Choose two.
Right, any tech CEO could easily fund a study to at least investigate the effect that occupying vibrant youths with video games, social media and other electronic distractions has on restraining potential violence from becoming kinetic violence.
They would stand to gain a lot, and an iPhone and an Xbox cost a lot less than trauma surgery and housing inmates in Cook County for years on end.
Freedom isn't free
Naw there's a hefty fuckin fee
Means Kato spoutin shit at theeThat's the thing; it's never "Chicago needs more gun control!" It's always "America needs more gun control!" Leftists run Chicago and Illinois, they are free to crack down on guns, enact tough gun laws, etc. Obviously that's not what leftists want, though. For some reason, what leftists want is to pivot from leftist-run cities' crime problems to taking away white people's long guns.Yeah the Ferguson Effect alone has killed more Blacks than the KKK ever did. Imagine if white racists killed over a thousand blacks in a year; the USA would literally crap its pants. The Big Media circus would make Trump Derangement Syndrome look like teatime.Replies: @Negrolphin Pool
A favorite SJW tactic is inappropriately aggregating data and groups that are completely different then drawing their pet foregone conclusion from the resulting garbage-out nonsense. So if the Florida orange crop fails and Michigan apples are up 10%, “fruit in the United States is in a state of crisis.”
They do this sort of thing so much it’s astounding.
Makes you wonder what the purpose of this lab is.
If it’s an incubator, it’s as successful as any at Stanford or elsewhere.
Steve,
It’s not gun violence. It’s gang violence, and it’s an important distinction.
No, Steve pretends that’s what gun control advocates want so he can avoid confronting the what they really want: to stuff him in a gulag with the other kulaks without fear of getting shot.
Boy, just when I think you can’t be more of an insufferable asian stereotype you go and show me.
HaHa Sailer, not only can’t you keep claiming Gibson for the measly two years he was condemned to the Leftist Coast, but neither can your Second City hold a candle where it really counts:
http://www.torontosun.com/2017/09/26/detroit-most-violent-big-city-in-us-in-2016-fbi
http://www.torontosun.com/2017/09/26/detroit-most-violent-big-city-in-us-in-2016-fbiReplies: @Stan d Mute
Sadly, Flint lost by a nose to Gary, IN this year. 45/100k vs 60/100k. It’s always a big celebration when Detroit & Flint both rank No.1 the same year.
If it's an incubator, it's as successful as any at Stanford or elsewhere.Replies: @Stan d Mute
That was worthy of a gold box. Has Steve stopped gold boxing comments?
First, remember this is all cyclical. Crack “epidemic” – white men were at fault due to CIA operations. Then the African church ladies riled up the African ministers who riled up the Aldermen who riled up the democrat government and we got long prison sentences for African criminals. Later, evil white men were blamed for all the Africans in prison for selling crack. Same cycle repeated on “urban violence” over and again. Too many murders – white men’s fault for not giving enough cops and letting Africans die. Cops sent in to quell the violence. Then it’s “police brutality” and white men blamed for harming “innocent” Africans. Rinse, wash, repeat. Forever … even long after all the white men are gone as in Detroit.
Because the solution is really simple, if all they want to do is prevent blacks from shooting each other quite so much; stop-frisk-confiscate. Blacks can't afford to replace their illegal guns at the rate that authorities can afford to find and confiscate them.Replies: @Thin-Skinned Masta-Beta, @Father O'Hara, @nebulafox, @MBlanc46
That pretty much covers it. What Chicago blacks want, Chicago Dem pols want to give them. Chicago blacks want to shoot at each other without police interference.
If only there wasn’t so much racism around, the poor blacks would be out discovering cures for cancer and developing advanced rocket technologies instead of shooting each other and the not infrequent white person.
Black people need gun control. Not Chicagoans.