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Weekly Total Deaths Finally Returning to Normal
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Here’s the CDC’s graph of weekly total deaths from any and all causes up through March 13, 2021 with the eight most recent weeks left off due to incomplete data. These are not covid deaths, but every and all kinds of deaths: cancer, car accidents, rattlesnake bites, whatever. So, while I’m sure debates about dying-with-covid vs. dying-from-covid are fascinating, they aren’t relevant here. This graph shows just plain deaths.

The orange line is the “upper bound threshold for excess deaths.” They look at long patterns and trends and predict how many deaths there would be each week. I’m guessing that’s the 95th percentile level for a normal year.

As you can see, there were a lot of excess deaths in 2020 and early 2021. It wasn’t the Black Death, but it wasn’t nothing either. The excess deaths of January 2018 are what “It’s just the flu, bro” looks like. From late March 2020 to early March 2021, however, was something else. These excess deaths just happened to come in three waves exactly in the same states and same times (just lagged by a number of weeks) as the three waves of coronavirus cases.

As I’ve been saying for a very long time, the novel coronavirus is neither the end of the world nor nothing. It’s a sizable problem.

I cut off from the right edge of this graph the eight most recent weeks of deaths because the CDC says it takes up to eight weeks for death reports to trickle in. This makes the eight most recent weeks of the current graph misleading because all throughout the pandemic, it has always looked like the pandemic has suddenly, Hallelujah!, died out over the last month. But then you come back a month later and it looks like “Oh, a month ago was pretty lethal after all. But, at least, the latest month is great. Woo-hoo! It’s over!” Rinse and repeat month after grim month.

Somebody who really cared could estimate the final tallies for the latest eight weeks by building a model from looking at old data, but that’s too much work for me.

So the last week in this graph I’m showing you is nine weeks ago, the week ending March 13, 2021, the most recent week for which we can be pretty sure the total number of deaths on the graph is quite close to 100% of actual deaths.

And, finally, that week ending March 13, 2021 is the first week since March 21, 2020 in which total deaths do not exceed the upper threshold of expected deaths based on long-term patterns.

It’s about time.

(There have been practically zero flu deaths in 2021 so far, which has helped.)

An interesting question is whether total deaths will fall below the long-term trend line as the pandemic recedes, assuming it continues to recede (but stranger things have happened over the last 17 months, so the current optimistic trend could change).

As you can see, the pandemic killed a whole bunch of people, some of whom likely didn’t have long to live anyway. It could be that total deaths will therefore drop below average in the near future due to the people who would die then having already died due to the virus.

Or it could be that deaths were well distributed among people with, say, 20 years expected life so that this clearing-the-underbrush effect will be insignificant. Or it could well be that covid has nasty long term effects on a non-trivial number of current survivors, who will die of long term effects.

Or, perhaps, everybody will drop dead from the vaccine.

We shall see.

This is a novel situation, so it’s hard to make confidence-inducing predictions.

 
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  1. Anonymous[366] • Disclaimer says:

    “Or it could well be that covid has nasty long term effects on a non-trivial number of current survivors, who will die of long term effects.

    Or, perhaps, everybody will drop dead from the vaccine.”

    Autoimmune Diseases will now skyrocket from both the virus and the vaccine.

    • Replies: @Anonymous
    @Anonymous


    Autoimmune Diseases will now skyrocket from both the virus and the vaccine.
     
    Why? Why would that be expected to happen?
    , @SunBakedSuburb
    @Anonymous

    "Autoimmune Diseases will now skyrocket from both the virus and the vaccine"

    Speculation regarding the long-term effect of the mRNA vaccine on natural immunity has been proffered by epidemiologists and practicing physicians not affiliated with public health bureaucrats and the pharmacorp sector. An epidemic of autoimmune disease in the coming years is one of their dreads.

    Replies: @Anon

  2. It’s particularly hard to make confidence-inducing predictions when believing the bullshit emanating from the CDC.
    Their “excess deaths” number is a wholly fictional artifact constructed by creating an expected number of deaths by major causes, comparing this fiction to reported deaths then, if deaths from a none controversial cause is below expectations, “normalizing”- i.e adjusting upward, that number.
    Thus if heart attacks (London suffered a real dearth of heart attacks for a couple of months because it was the covid not the heart that attacked them) fall, they are adjusted upward to meet expectations and voila! excess deaths.

    With the CDC’S inauguration day gift to Resident Biden of turning down the PCR cycles on tests, it’s ok for people to go back to dying from what killed them.

    https://catholiccitizens.org/news/94232/covid-cases-plummet-after-who-changes-testing-protocol-on-bidens-inauguration-day/

    Meanwhile, the same technique is being used to amp up the “effectiveness” of the experimental gene therapy masquerading as a vaccine.
    https://off-guardian.org/2021/05/18/how-the-cdc-is-manipulating-data-to-prop-up-vaccine-effectiveness/

    The reason for all of this, other than the massively destructive transfer of power to the State is that the CDC effectively became a drug company with the passage of the Bayh-Dole act in 1980.

    https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Bayh%E2%80%93Dole_Act

    Faucci owns over 50 patents, Gates isn’t the only angel of death making out like a bandit,

    • Agree: Hippopotamusdrome
    • Replies: @Steve Sailer
    @Bill Jones

    Nah, just look at the total number of deaths each week.

    I realize it's hard to admit you were wrong, but it's good for the soul.

    Replies: @Hernan Pizzaro del Blanco, @Desiderius, @Sub, @Citizen of a Silly Country, @Travis, @Mr. Anon, @Anthony Aaron, @Marquis, @anon, @Scott Locklin, @Corvinus

    , @MGB
    @Bill Jones

    So what you’re saying, in part, is that correlation is not causation. Even worse though is that there aren’t even two reliable sets of data to compare. There are no reliable data for the ‘the three waves of coronavirus cases’. The hysterics have gone from measuring the apocalypse by linking positive PCR testing and individual deaths, to advancing the excess deaths theory, which does not need reliable PCR testing, to this hybrid ‘case waves’ excess death theory, which again requires that the test be reliable.

    None of those arguments takes into consideration the possible impact of the half assed quarantine, driving people from their homes, bankrupting small businesses, isolating the elderly from any human contact. I have been able to visit my 90-year old mother 3-4 times per week during this because, thankfully, she is still in her own home, but she has friends, both living independently and in LTC facilities, who spent more than a year isolated from their family, some of whom died. Was it simply their time, or did being terrorized and isolated hasten their death? Who knows. But this retardedly simple correlation theory doesn’t allow for any conclusion other than ‘the pandemic killed a whole bunch of people.’ As for the future of children and adolescents who spent 7 hours a day for a year in virtual class rooms, with no social interaction, growing obese, depressed and anxious, ‘we shall see.’

    Replies: @Bill Jones

    , @Jim Christian
    @Bill Jones

    How does Fauci, a federal employee of nearly 50 years, own 50 patents? The USG owns his work and those patents, one would think, just as a company would own the work and patents of THEIR employees. How does that corrupt little earthworm own even one?

    Replies: @res, @Bill Jones

  3. Covid-19 is not a hoax. The response by the government may well be ovverblown, but the potential of this virus to kill a lot of people was always there. In hindsight, the case fatality rate was probably a lot lower than what was predicted at the time of the outbreak given the case fatality rate of MERS and SARS-1–much higher than 1-2%.

    The vaccine development has really changed the equation but we are in uncertain times for sure.

    The vaccines were not without risk as the deaths from vaccination prove. And we do not know what long term side effects may emerge from these vaccines or how long they will provide protection against COVID and its emerging variants.

    The trouble today is that we have gotten so used to expecting the government to lie to us that we have a very hard time knowing what is true and what is not true. Hence the skepticism surrounding the sky is falling scenario sold to us by the government.

    This is a sad situation that has been created by the fact that the government does lie.

    Trust is not easily repaired in such a situation.

    • Agree: Gordo, Mike_from_SGV
    • Replies: @Bert
    @lavoisier

    The government, specifically NIH, CDC, and FDA, did not simply lie. It suppressed information about effective repurposed drug treatments for Covid. If Julius Streicher could be tortured and then hanged for, allegedly, disseminating falsehoods, then what fate would a just court decree for the likes of Collins and Fauci?

    Separately, why would anyone wish to trust in government after witnessing its decimation of the elderly and non-healthy. You lament loss of trust in government. More centered individuals celebrate it.

    , @Anonymous
    @lavoisier


    but the potential of this virus to kill a lot of people was always there.
     
    Citation needed.
    , @Corvinus
    @lavoisier

    “The trouble today is that we have gotten so used to expecting the government to lie to us that we have a very hard time knowing what is true and what is not true. Hence the skepticism surrounding the sky is falling scenario sold to us by the government”

    Yes, officials in our government have lied to us. The problem is that within the past six years, certain groups have ramped up their confirmation bias to the point they have convinced themselves the government and media consistently and repeatedly is lying. It’s a default button now for some to automatically assume anything and everything is other than truthful. As a result, healthy skepticism has been replaced by a Trump induced intellectual sterility.

    Replies: @SunBakedSuburb, @AKAHorace

    , @Alden
    @lavoisier

    Whatever the truth is about covid , every word the government and media tells us is a lie.

    I remember last April May June all summer. News paper headlines shrieking about over crowded hospitals and 16 18 hour work days. Yet in this neighborhood with 3 major and several smaller hospitals within 10 miles, the hospital workers hours were reduced to 3 or 4 days a week. And when they went to work they saw hospitals were empty of patients and staff.

    So who do I believe, people who actually worked and still work at UCLA and St John’s hospitals or the media and government that’s been lying to me all my life?

  4. SARS-CoV-2 is a potentially serious respiratory / pulmonary disease, though for most people not serious. Covid is a spiritual and mental disease that has broken out culture and perhaps global civilization. There is no vaccine against the latter. We’re doomed.

    • Replies: @tyrone
    @Jake Barnes

    We are under biological attack.....definitely one of the top ten weapons of all time.....don't worry, there will be more,I hear zika viruses are real nasty.

  5. Or it could well be that covid has nasty long term effects on a non-trivial number of current survivors, who will die of long term effects.

    Or, perhaps, everybody will drop dead from the vaccine.

    We shall see.

    Smart hedge might be to only get the first Pfizer shot (80% efficacy) and skip the second (90%)?

    https://www.nytimes.com/2021/05/22/health/cdc-heart-teens-vaccination.html

    CDC investigates dozens of reports of heart inflammation in teenagers and young adults that occur four days after their second dose of Moderna or Pfizer vaccines

    https://www.dailymail.co.uk/news/article-9608675/CDC-investigating-heart-problems-teenagers-young-adults-Moderna-Pfizer-vaccine.html

  6. Since we’re currently in the midst of the Stage 3 (safety) trials for these vaccines I’m sure there will be some bad news. Probably not terrible news or we would have noticed by now.

    Vaccinations for SARS CV19 will not be going away for the foreseeable future. Since the mRNA vaccines code for only one spike protein on the virus and these viruses are well known for mutation and since we’ve vaccinated millions whilst the virus is freely circulating we’ll end up with mutations that the vaccines can’t stop. It’s already happening with the variants we’ve seen from around the world. So be ready for endless fall vaccination campaigns. Big Pharma is loving it!

    To end on a positive note, after about 10 years or so we’ll have mRNA vaccines totally figured out.

    • Replies: @Jack D
    @Yawrate

    So far, the mRNA vaccines have proved mostly effective against all the variants. The spike protein can only mutate so much without losing its ability to do what it is supposed to do. The choice of the spike protein as the target of the vaccine was wise for this reason. Let's say you were designing an AI robot to kill poisonous snakes by looking for snakes with fangs. Snake could try to evade the robot by changing their color or appearance but as long as they still had fangs the robots would find them. If the snakes evolved not to have fangs then they wouldn't be dangerous anymore and we wouldn't care anyway.

    If a booster is needed, that's not the end of the world - people get flu shots every year. You could say this is an endless fall vaccination campaign that Big Pharma loves, but no one ever blinked an eye at this necessity. Some vaccines are good for life or for a number of years and others need to be repeated annually - that's just how it is. It's a result of biology, not some plot by Big Pharma. Big Pharma would love to sell you a measles shot every year too but they can't because one shot is sufficient.

    Replies: @Anon, @Yancey Ward, @Buzz Mohawk

    , @Barack Obama's secret Unz account
    @Yawrate


    To end on a positive note, after about 10 years or so we’ll have mRNA vaccines totally figured out.
     
    Assuming that the technology is not a dead end. They never did make an mRNA drug or vaccine which passed safety trials pre-2020, despite thirty years of trying. Who knows what happens when they return to pre-crisis safety standards?
  7. For the record, I agree with you that covid was a real thing, though not as real and serious as classical plagues. And that it is prima facie compelling that the excess death waves corresponded pretty well with the “covid cases’” timing and location. Still, one could equally well argue that the most likely source of non-covid excess deaths: i.e. deaths from ordinary non-contagious cardio-pulmonary conditions, which even in covid times were a larger source of deaths than covid, are also most likely to go untreated—and therefore become fatal—in the same times and places as covid case surges occur, as people avoid (or public officials deter) ordinary medical treatment they would otherwise seek.

    Also, re “zero flu deaths”, the CDC recently mixed flu and covid together into a new joint category called “PIC” (pneumonia, influenza, and covid), so I’m not sure how much significance we can attach to the “zero flu death” claim. This leaves aside the fact that coronaviruses are anyway an ordinary component of annual influenzas, and that “influenza deaths” itself has always been a dubiously confected statistic that has only existed for about 15 years.

    But anyway, yes, it is good news that the excess deaths, whatever their source, are finally coming down. And your blog is the first (and so far as I know, only) place to report this significant fact.

    • Agree: Desiderius, Spud Boy
    • Replies: @Barack Obama's secret Unz account
    @Almost Missouri


    Still, one could equally well argue that the most likely source of non-covid excess deaths: i.e. deaths from ordinary non-contagious cardio-pulmonary conditions, which even in covid times were a larger source of deaths than covid, are also most likely to go untreated—and therefore become fatal—in the same times and places as covid case surges occur, as people avoid (or public officials deter) ordinary medical treatment they would otherwise seek.
     
    Suppose NPIs have killed lots of people. Let's divide those deaths into two categories, acute and chronic. (Or immediate and delayed.) NPIs rise and fall largely in conjunction with COVID cases, ergo acute NPI deaths will spike along with cases: e.g. heart attacks, as you say, or perhaps bacterial/viral/fungal pneumonias caused by breathing thru a dirty mask all day.

    Chronic NPI deaths however will not follow the lockdown arcs, but rather their own longer arc: we might see them rising steadily for several years before beginning to decline. (This will be hard to detect with all the other fluctuations in the death rate.) This might explain why excess deaths remained higher than expected even outside of the three waves, and why the third wave was biggest and longest-lasting: maybe longer-gestating medical problems, like cancer or diabetes, had started killing people because they weren't treated earlier in the year. Remember, supposedly it's typical for a pandemic virus to kill less with each wave, as prior immunity has built up - and yet the third wave is bigger than the first, and takes much longer to subside.

    Replies: @Jon

    , @Daniel Williams
    @Almost Missouri

    “Zero flu deaths” is nonsense. Doctors aren’t generally administering flu tests. Why would they? A positive result doesn’t influence treatment.

    Pre-covid, if you presented with something like flu, the doc told you to drink fluids and rest, and then he reported a presumed flu case to the state board that tracks these things.

    Today, when you present with these same symptoms, the doctor writes covid, prescribes bedrest and lots of fluids, and reports a case to whatever state board tracks these things.

    He probably does test you for covid, and you probably have it. It’s going around. You would also potentially test positive for HSV1, some strain of influenza, or any of many other ambient infections, but why bother? Writing “covid” will get you rest, drink fluids, and otherwise alleviate your suffering.

  8. As I wrote to AnotherDad yesterday, I’d done a fairly quick calculation based on the following:

    – All the pages I’d pulled up, from the CDC and others, said they used a baseline (note “line”, not “curve”) of “normal deaths” from an average of ’15 to ’19 deaths of Americans. Yeah, but the average age of an American is rising fairly quickly.

    – I pulled up US Census pages that have 5-year age brackets of Americans by age and sex.

    – I pulled up tables of data via Statista that has (unfortunately only 10-year) brackets of death rate by age for various years.

    – Just calculations of 2 5-year brackets together of age groups (from the first table) x death rates of each 10-year bracket of death rates by age gives number of deaths expected in any one of these normal years. (yes, “normal” is hard to break out from “slightly bad flu season”, “year after slightly bad flu season”, etc.)

    – For the year ’19 alone, I’d gotten something like 150,000 additional deaths just due to aging vs. that average ’15-’19 average that the CDC and others use. No, that’s not most of these excess deaths, but not insignificant either.

    This is nothing groundbreaking or hard – it’s just that a ’15-’19 baseline for “normal” deaths is significantly lower than a normal one based on how much more aged the population was in ’19 alone (much less ’20).

    Yes, I need to show my work. I will get on this later today, as I have to go right now and don’t want to rush this now. (Gotta round up all the old browser tabs too.) I don’t blog on Sundays, but tomorrow I’ll put up a post on Peak Stupidity.

    • Agree: Redman
    • Thanks: Adam Smith
    • Replies: @theMann
    @Achmed E. Newman

    Keep up the good fight, looking at the meta data.

    Let me add:
    1. Quackcines either are, or are not, responsible for the massive increase in Autism, throughout the Western world, especially the USA. This could easily be verified by using control group vs. inoculated populations in statistical samples. Which has never been done.
    2. Quackcines either are, or are not, causing Alzheimer's disease in the aged through metal accumulation in the brain. This could be verified by control group vs. inoculated sample groups...
    3. Quackcines either are, or are not, causing diabetes in people. This could be determined by....you get the idea.
    4. The Guardasil Quackcine, in addition to causing major autoimmune results in its victims, either did, or did not, result in upwards of 20% of the teenage girls receiving it having their ovaries permanently damaged to the point of sterility. Which could be easily statistically sampled......

    Now you would think, given the unending increase in Autism, Alzheimer's, and Diabetes as well as the massive drop off in teen pregnancies, that this would be looking into, especially since initial testing for causes would be so easy? Right?

    Wrong.

    Then, there is this:

    https://www.lewrockwell.com/lrc-blog/if-people-get-jabbed-after-watching-this-they-are-beyond-saving/

    Not to mention the fact that mRNA experimental gene therapy has a two year death rate in the inoculated approaching 90-100%. Considering how deadly "the Covid" isn't, is that worth the risk?

    All we have from the "Authorities" are lies, upon lies, topped off by more lies. And half of you are still hopping in line to lick their asses for more lies. If so many of you are still that scared shitless over "the Covid", eat an orange, get some sun, go lied down. Because prevention actually is that easy.

    , @Bill
    @Achmed E. Newman


    All the pages I’d pulled up, from the CDC and others, said they used a baseline (note “line”, not “curve”) of “normal deaths” from an average of ’15 to ’19 deaths of Americans. Yeah, but the average age of an American is rising fairly quickly.
     
    You're saying the baseline mortality rate is not age-adjusted?

    Replies: @Achmed E. Newman

    , @Barack Obama's secret Unz account
    @Achmed E. Newman

    Surely the fact that we have to spend time crunching the numbers to figure out whether a pandemic actually even happened is evidence that, whatever happened, it wasn't much.

    Australia had +6.8% mortality in 2019: nobody noticed.

    , @Mr Mox
    @Achmed E. Newman


    This is nothing groundbreaking or hard – it’s just that a ’15-’19 baseline for “normal” deaths is significantly lower than a normal one based on how much more aged the population was in ’19 alone (much less ’20).
     
    Good catch, Achmed! From 1940 to 1950 the yearly number of births in the US rose from 2.5 to 3.6 mil before stabilizing around 4 mil in 1954. Using the 'last five years average' will underestimate the true numbers for several years to come.
    , @Turtlelamp
    @Achmed E. Newman

    This is a valid point. Our population is aging and the number of expected deaths each year is rising.

    According to this paper, the US population in 2020 had 5 million more people aged 65+ than the average for 2015-2019. Factoring this in, the number of excess deaths from March to August 2020 dropped by about 23%.

    https://pubmed.ncbi.nlm.nih.gov/33316174/

    Replies: @Achmed E. Newman

  9. Trannies do it better.
    Under the heading Limitations

    “For example, in Pennsylvania, reporting lags are currently much longer than they have been in past years, and death counts for 2020 are therefore underestimated.”

    • Replies: @Dmon
    @They Drew First Blood

    They couldn't report your death until after they'd counted your vote.

  10. There were no excess deaths in the UK in 2020.

    An enterprising fellow has found a way to bypass the lies spewed out by the government: he issued freedom of information requests to local councils, asking how many burials and cremations they had logged from 2015-20 inclusive. Not all the councils discharged their statutory duty to respond, probably because they were aware of the implications of the request and were filling their underpants in consequence. The responses so far are to be found here:

    https://www.whatdotheyknow.com/user/nick_milner

    In the period covered, the number of burials and cremations in 2020 was only slightly above the average. Indeed, 2017 was much worse.

    I imagine that much the same applies in the U.S. and many other countries.

    The number of ‘Covid-19’ deaths in the UK was inflated by (1) fraudulent use of high-cycle PCR tests (which are anyway not to be used for diagnostic purposes), (2) conflating deaths ‘with’ Covid with deaths ‘from’ Covid, (3) changing the rules so that only one doctor, not two, needed to sign a death certificate, (4) allowing doctors to diagnose Covid without even seeing the patient, (5) fraudulently ascribing any death from a respiratory complaint to Covid, and (6) wholesale falsification of published central government statistics.

    Meanwhile, mass murder is going on with the so-called vaccinations. This percentage of fatal adverse reactions, never mind all the others, would have seen any other experimental drug rapidly pulled from the market, Emergency Use Approval or not. And of course, in this case there is no ‘Emergency’ at all.

    https://yellowcard.ukcolumn.org/yellow-card-reports

    Then we have the strong possibility of pathogenic priming in those credulous enough to have allowed themselves to be experimented on. The next flu season might well be interesting.

    • Thanks: JerseyJeffersonian
    • Replies: @Barack Obama's secret Unz account
    @Simon Tugmutton


    In the period covered, the number of burials and cremations in 2020 was only slightly above the average.
     
    There's only one explanation: hundreds of thousands of unburied corpses must be lining the streets

    Replies: @Screwtape

    , @Hippopotamusdrome
    @Simon Tugmutton

    United Kingdom - Crude death rate
    2017: 9.3
    2018: 9.4
    2019: 9.4
    2020: 9.4

  11. @Bill Jones
    It's particularly hard to make confidence-inducing predictions when believing the bullshit emanating from the CDC.
    Their "excess deaths" number is a wholly fictional artifact constructed by creating an expected number of deaths by major causes, comparing this fiction to reported deaths then, if deaths from a none controversial cause is below expectations, "normalizing"- i.e adjusting upward, that number.
    Thus if heart attacks (London suffered a real dearth of heart attacks for a couple of months because it was the covid not the heart that attacked them) fall, they are adjusted upward to meet expectations and voila! excess deaths.

    With the CDC'S inauguration day gift to Resident Biden of turning down the PCR cycles on tests, it's ok for people to go back to dying from what killed them.

    https://catholiccitizens.org/news/94232/covid-cases-plummet-after-who-changes-testing-protocol-on-bidens-inauguration-day/


    Meanwhile, the same technique is being used to amp up the "effectiveness" of the experimental gene therapy masquerading as a vaccine.
    https://off-guardian.org/2021/05/18/how-the-cdc-is-manipulating-data-to-prop-up-vaccine-effectiveness/


    The reason for all of this, other than the massively destructive transfer of power to the State is that the CDC effectively became a drug company with the passage of the Bayh-Dole act in 1980.

    https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Bayh%E2%80%93Dole_Act


    Faucci owns over 50 patents, Gates isn't the only angel of death making out like a bandit,

    Replies: @Steve Sailer, @MGB, @Jim Christian

    Nah, just look at the total number of deaths each week.

    I realize it’s hard to admit you were wrong, but it’s good for the soul.

    • Replies: @Hernan Pizzaro del Blanco
    @Steve Sailer

    Hard to admit the lockdowns failed and masks did not reduce the spread of coronavirus.

    There was never justification for shutting down schools and businesses. There is no justification for forcing people to wear masks.

    Replies: @MGB, @Corvinus

    , @Desiderius
    @Steve Sailer

    Physician heal thyself.

    Replies: @Matt Buckalew

    , @Sub
    @Steve Sailer

    The problem with looking at total deaths is that at the same time Covid was going around, many governments were engaging in policies which could potentially cause a spike in deaths even in the absence of an infectious disease going around, as noted by Achmed in another comment.

    If you want to use this chart to make the point you are trying to make, you need to account for how many of these deaths are due to policy vs how many are due to COVID, which is almost impossible due to the ass-backwards way the CDC is classifying COVID deaths within a 28 day window of infection, something they do not do for any other cause of death.

    Replies: @Steve Sailer, @Anon

    , @Citizen of a Silly Country
    @Steve Sailer

    Before you start your victory dance, Steve, perhaps you should be reminded that you were wrong on the central question concerning Covid.

    For the millionth time, let's look at what the real question around Covid was. First, nobody but loons claimed that Covid was "just the flu, bro." It was and is a very nasty virus, though, as you have mentioned not the Black Death.

    The question was and is: How effective are the lockdowns and are their benefits (if any) worth the damage (economic and social) inflicted on the population?

    Given that Sweden had lower deaths per million (yes, I know that its neighbors were even lower) than the United States and the lack of evidence that the lockdowns had much effect at all in slowing the spread of the virus, the answer is clearly that the lockdowns (and the mass authority that the government assumed) were a monumental mistake.

    Covid was tailor-made for the old Steve Sailer. You could have use the numbers and your logic to rip the whole government response to shreds. Instead, well, lets just say that it wasn't your finest hour.

    Replies: @Bill

    , @Travis
    @Steve Sailer

    The fearmongers were wrong. The fatality rate of COVID was well under .5%

    Dr. Ioannidis was correct. Infection fatality rate of COVID-19 inferred from seroprevalence data demonstarte that the IFR was closer to .3% than 1%

    The lockdown proponents will never admit they were wrong. The lockdowns are a big reason for the increase in excess deaths.

    Replies: @Scott Locklin

    , @Mr. Anon
    @Steve Sailer


    Nah, just look at the total number of deaths each week.
     
    Is that what the blue columns are? I would assume so. The units given are raw numbers. And yet the legend labels them as "Predicted number of deaths from all causes". So, are they real or are they predicted? Perhaps I shouldn't expect any kind of consistency from the CDC at this point.

    If they are total deaths - and I have always assumed they are (although that label is confusing) - are they the actual number of deaths that week or the number of deaths reported that week or..........what? Maybe there is some statistician gnome at the CDC who is counting up the deaths for added effect. Sort of like bunching your charitable contributions to minimize your tax bill. It is possible that an overall secular rise in the number of deaths could be squeezed and tugged into bulges that match the COV2 case count.

    One would expect the expected number of deaths to start increasing as the Boomers start dying off. how do generations die off? Does it begin gradually, or does it announce itself suddently. I can imagine that either case could be true.

    And how many of those deaths can be attributed to co-factors arising from the lockdowns and general hysteria itself? i.e.

    1.) Old people dying in nursing homes that had COVID patients sent to them (i.e. what the governors of New York, New Jersey, Pennsylvania, and Michigan did).

    2.) People dying from agressive, over-long over-use of ventillators, which use, one should always remember involves placing the patient in an induced coma, i.e. administering knock-out drugs like propofol for days or weeks on end.

    3.) People dying of heart-attacks and strokes because they were afraid to seek medical attention.

    4.) People dying of heart-attacks and strokes engendered by the 24/7 fear-porn hysteria

    5.) Non acute COVID patients who were denied out-patient treatments (like Ivermectin, HCL/Zinc) with instructions that if they got real sick to return to the hospital (see # 2 above). A lot of those people might have suffered only a mild case of the disease and acquired some natural immunity instead of progressing to ARD that resulted in hospitalization and/or death.

    I have never disputed that COVID is a real pandemic disease. I have disputed that it is significantly worse than any number of previous pandemics during which the World did not collectively run around in a blind funk and set its hair on fire.

    Maybe the CDC could publish a similar time-series as that shown above for the 1968 Hong Kong Flu or the 1957 Asian Flu pandemics, so as to permit us to judge how effective have been the measures taken by the Public Health Mafia Establishment.
    , @Anthony Aaron
    @Steve Sailer

    'I realize it’s hard to admit you were wrong, but it’s good for the soul.'

    So … are you talking into the mirror -- or to the rest of US … because you seem to be rather strongly stating that YOU are correct and the rest of US -- and all of the competent and reliable research we've read -- is wrong.

    Fancy that …

    , @Marquis
    @Steve Sailer

    Good lord. You would think someone as wrong and ill informed as you on this subject would just run from it. Even once the fear has subsided (has it?) you still can’t get your head around it.

    , @anon
    @Steve Sailer

    We know a nurse who says next year's flu season, minus the social distancing, constant hand sanitizing, masks, and surface disinfectants, will see the real aim of the rna-spike protien in the American vaccines vs. the traditional vaccines that China and Russia have used.
    The nurse told us it will begin in late November after Thanksgiving and begin in earnest around Christmas. He means deaths. Lots of them. Pneumonia and flu.

    I hope he is wrong. He is a RN surgical nurse.

    Replies: @anonymous

    , @Scott Locklin
    @Steve Sailer

    FWIIW I've done this exercise; while the executives on top of CDC making grand pronouncements are all dipshits who should probably be tarred and feathered, counting dead people is a pretty rudimentary governmental function, and the CDC numbers for rona deaths seem to be entirely accurate, and have been all along.

    As for the knuckleheads claiming 'there have been zero flu deaths in 2021' that's not even remotely true. It's lower than usual, especially for pediatric influenza deaths, probably because everyone's wearing a goddamned mask.

    You people have degenerated into two tribes of filthy monkeys throwing poop at each other on twitter and have completely lost your ability to recognize reality. Except Steve because apparently he can run a spreadsheet and count dead people.

    , @Corvinus
    @Steve Sailer

    You really should follow your own advice, iSteve.

  12. “(There have been practically zero flu deaths in 2021 so far, which has helped.)”
    Does anybody really believe that?

    • Replies: @Steve Sailer
    @BB753

    Please explain your contorted logic why that wouldn't be so?

    Replies: @Pop Warner, @Barack Obama's secret Unz account, @BB753

  13. @Steve Sailer
    @Bill Jones

    Nah, just look at the total number of deaths each week.

    I realize it's hard to admit you were wrong, but it's good for the soul.

    Replies: @Hernan Pizzaro del Blanco, @Desiderius, @Sub, @Citizen of a Silly Country, @Travis, @Mr. Anon, @Anthony Aaron, @Marquis, @anon, @Scott Locklin, @Corvinus

    Hard to admit the lockdowns failed and masks did not reduce the spread of coronavirus.

    There was never justification for shutting down schools and businesses. There is no justification for forcing people to wear masks.

    • Agree: Achmed E. Newman
    • Replies: @MGB
    @Hernan Pizzaro del Blanco

    Yes. People didn’t fully comply with the quarantine (the selfish bastards) which resulted in unnecessary deaths, but not as many as if there was no compliance, but the lockdown was so complete that it eradicated the seasonal flu. Or something like that. It’s almost as if a conclusion was created, Frankenstein-like, and now it’s left wandering, moaning in search of data to support itself.

    , @Corvinus
    @Hernan Pizzaro del Blanco

    For public health concerns, yes, the measures were justified.

    Replies: @Anonymous, @Bill, @Mr. Anon, @Colin Wright

  14. Anonymous[141] • Disclaimer says:

    Some percentage of the excess deaths are from people not getting medical treatment for non-Covid issues. Have relatives who are physicians and their business (and hospital occupancy) was deeply down in spring/summer 2020.

    [Not arguing the entire effect. Just, it is a valid confounding variable.]

    • Replies: @Hippopotamusdrome
    @Anonymous



    Some percentage of the excess deaths are...

     

    ...pure bookeeping fictions made to get the CARES Act $$$
  15. The pandemic was a non-event in Ulster County, NY, where I live.

    258 deaths in a population of 180,000. That’s 14/100ths of one percent. The survival rate among the 15,000 infected was 99.8%.

    Of those 258 deaths, I’m assuming half were among the elderly sick who hadn’t long to live in any event.

    The state of NY shut down Ulster County for 14 months and imprisoned me in my house over this.

    • Replies: @Yancey Ward
    @Shouting Thomas

    Thomas,

    I have been trying to reach out to you for a week now on your blog. If you aren't interested, just let me know here.

  16. @lavoisier
    Covid-19 is not a hoax. The response by the government may well be ovverblown, but the potential of this virus to kill a lot of people was always there. In hindsight, the case fatality rate was probably a lot lower than what was predicted at the time of the outbreak given the case fatality rate of MERS and SARS-1--much higher than 1-2%.

    The vaccine development has really changed the equation but we are in uncertain times for sure.

    The vaccines were not without risk as the deaths from vaccination prove. And we do not know what long term side effects may emerge from these vaccines or how long they will provide protection against COVID and its emerging variants.

    The trouble today is that we have gotten so used to expecting the government to lie to us that we have a very hard time knowing what is true and what is not true. Hence the skepticism surrounding the sky is falling scenario sold to us by the government.

    This is a sad situation that has been created by the fact that the government does lie.

    Trust is not easily repaired in such a situation.

    Replies: @Bert, @Anonymous, @Corvinus, @Alden

    The government, specifically NIH, CDC, and FDA, did not simply lie. It suppressed information about effective repurposed drug treatments for Covid. If Julius Streicher could be tortured and then hanged for, allegedly, disseminating falsehoods, then what fate would a just court decree for the likes of Collins and Fauci?

    Separately, why would anyone wish to trust in government after witnessing its decimation of the elderly and non-healthy. You lament loss of trust in government. More centered individuals celebrate it.

    • Agree: JerseyJeffersonian
    • Disagree: Corvinus
  17. Again how many access deaths are the result of the lockdowns (deaths of despair – or sick people made afraid to seek treatment?) You say it isn’t relevant but it absolutely is. The blogger Hail has address all of this and illustrated simply that the world has experienced these mild outbreaks many many times and all run their course and life and society goes on. The weak ass virus did not justify the actions taken. Period.

    Steve, you and many here applauded the further establishing of a malevolent police state. You averted your eyes to big tech, big retail, and big pharma killing the small business model. You shrugged your shoulders at the humiliating and manipulative purposes behind wearing face masks.

    You were wrong then. You are wrong now.

    • Agree: Adam Smith, Mr. Anon
    • Disagree: Corvinus
    • Replies: @Steve Sailer
    @Mike Tre

    Why weren't there a ton of excess deaths in September after 6 months of lockdown vs. August and April? It's almost like excess deaths tended to follow a few weeks behind covid cases peaking.

    Replies: @Mike Tre

    , @HA
    @Mike Tre

    "Again how many access deaths are the result of the lockdowns (deaths of despair – or sick people made afraid to seek treatment?)"


    It would be pretty weird if "deaths of despair" spiked up a couple of hundred thousand (if that's what you're getting at), even as suicides declined. Yes, that's right -- suicides DECLINED in 2020.

    And while it's evidently true that a bunch of the commentators here can't wait till grandma and grandpa just die off already and stop causing so much trouble for the rest of us, for those who aren't psychopaths, it's watching grandma and grandpa die from COVID (not exactly an easy way to go) that's really likely to jack up the despair. But no, let's overlook that and just blame it all on the lockdowns because they're the "greatest seizure of liberties ever visited among the American population", even more than forced conscription, or the IRS, or Prohibition, or anything else that this government has ever done, since unlike all those other impositions, this one affected you personally and you're all that really matters in this universe.

    Replies: @Peterike, @Mike Tre, @NotNormAgain

  18. Or it could be that deaths were well distributed among people with, say, 20 years expected life

    This is statistically impossible. Last time I looked, the average age of a Covid victim was around 80 and live expectancy at 80 in the US is around 8 years. This is not accounting for the fact that people who die of Covid are in worse health than average.

    However, since the Covid deaths were all concentrated in 1 year while the dip in future deaths due to culling the herd of the weakest will be spread out among several years, it’s quite possible that the future dip will be too small to be noticeable . Rather than one way below average year to make up for the WAY above average year of 2020, each year from 2021 to 2025, say, will be SLIGHTLY below average, possible even getting completely lost in the statistical noise if, for example, the flu makes a comeback because people have stopped masking.

    • Replies: @AnotherDad
    @Jack D


    This is statistically impossible. Last time I looked, the average age of a Covid victim was around 80 and live expectancy at 80 in the US is around 8 years. This is not accounting for the fact that people who die of Covid are in worse health than average.

    However, since the Covid deaths were all concentrated in 1 year while the dip in future deaths due to culling the herd of the weakest will be spread out among several years, it’s quite possible that the future dip will be too small to be noticeable .
     

    I think this is basically right Jack.

    My estimate for a median Xi virus fatality was something like 4 years of life and maybe 1 QALY. (The only Xi fatality i know personally--my uncle--i'd guess lost about a year--maybe two or three, but he wasn't going to get to 100--and zero QALYs.)

    Last spring i thought we would see noticeably lower deaths (adjusting for the slow tick up as the boomers age--larger cohorts in the death zone) in the next few years.

    Not so sure anymore. It's clear the Xi virus's nasty vascular attack leaves a number of people with longer term issues. The study of VA cases shows significantly higher mortality of Covid cases months out. I'm skeptical of big problems with the vaccine, but every vax has issues and the spike protein is a nasty fellow.

    Spitballing ... (the US, i'm an American, others can spitball their nations)
    -- 100m got the bug -- say 5m have some long term lingering issue that lowers life expectancy a bit
    -- 200m get the vax -- say 1m have some sort of long term issue from it that lowers life expectancy a smidgen
    .... these effects could wash away the Xi virus premature cull.

    ~~~

    The big take home from this whole deal ... big tempest in a teapot.

    But both ways. The early cull of geezers ... not significant. (Even if had continued a modest dent in the improvement in life expectancy that have occurred during my life.) And the lockdowns and stuff ... big deal. (Lockdowns were stupid, but if a lockdown "wrecked your life" ... look in the mirror.)

    Twenty five years from now this will all have mattered not one whit. Dwarfed by even one year of the demographic debacle we are getting from immigration.

    It's stunning even on this blog people rant on about covid and the covid reaction and Iraq and Israel and spending and affirmative action and black crime--which granted makes our cities suck--and this and that and the other thing.

    But the only things that have any significance in changing the quality of life that our children and grandchildren will experience--the basic trajectory of the nation--are
    A) immigration
    B) collapsed and dysgenic fertility.

    Covid--a trivial unimportant blip.

    Replies: @anonymous

  19. So, while I’m sure debates about dying-with-covid vs. dying-from-covid are fascinating, they aren’t relevant here.

    Homer nods.

    The argument (of which dying-with-covid is only a part) is that the cure was/is (much) worse than the disease due to things like missed cancer screenings and the like. That would also produce the same excess deaths as the not-just-the-flu theory.

    The truth is probably somewhere in the middle shaded toward the bad cure side.

    • Replies: @Jack D
    @Desiderius

    I think that the "missed cancer screenings" hypothesis could be pretty easily refuted - you would expect these excess deaths to occur pretty evenly in every place and at every time that had similar lockdown regimes. But if you look at actual excess deaths, these shot up in perfect correlation with reported outbreaks in each state.

    TBH, cancer screenings are not all that effective (although they are very profitable for doctors). There aren't that many kinds of cancer that will kill you within a year if they are not detected early but if they are your life will be saved. If it was really like that, women should be getting mammograms every month instead of annually. Maybe if we stopped all cancer screenings forever it would be bad but a one year pause in screenings (not that there was ever a complete pause) is not going to have a big effect - the tumor that wasn't found on last year's (missed) mammogram will be detected in this year's mammogram.

    Replies: @Desiderius, @Anonymous, @Art Deco, @Barack Obama's secret Unz account

    , @TomSchmidt
    @Desiderius

    How do locked-down versus non-locked-down states compare on non-COVID deaths? That should be easy.

    The illogic of lockdowns shown by comparison of the two probably also invalidates your thesis.

    Replies: @Desiderius, @Jonathan Mason, @Bill Jones

  20. @Steve Sailer
    @Bill Jones

    Nah, just look at the total number of deaths each week.

    I realize it's hard to admit you were wrong, but it's good for the soul.

    Replies: @Hernan Pizzaro del Blanco, @Desiderius, @Sub, @Citizen of a Silly Country, @Travis, @Mr. Anon, @Anthony Aaron, @Marquis, @anon, @Scott Locklin, @Corvinus

    Physician heal thyself.

    • Agree: Mike Tre, Catdog
    • Replies: @Matt Buckalew
    @Desiderius

    Look Steve’s kids weren’t gonna voluntarily stay home for a year and a half and Steve lacks the authority and disposition to make them- so we needed to shut the country down.

    Not to mention Steve’s zero percent chance of knowing what Gospel that’s from is part and parcel to boomer solipsistic secularism leading to terror in the face of even the slightest hint of death. A

    Replies: @Dieter Kief

  21. Any thoughts on why places like Germany and Sweden had zero or close to zero excess death in 2020?

    My take is that COVID showed us either that the US has a growing population of suboptimal health, or that our aging population is starting to catch up with the Euro countries which have already had pretty annual high death rates for a while. Or maybe both.

    • Replies: @TomSchmidt
    @Redman

    Germany is pretty fat for Europe, so it cannot just be the wildly overweight American population. I don't know about Sweden and obesity.

    , @Sean
    @Redman


    https://press.princeton.edu/books/hardcover/9780691190785/deaths-of-despair-and-the-future-of-capitalism

    For the white working class, today’s America has become a land of broken families and few prospects. As the college educated become healthier and wealthier, adults without a degree are literally dying from pain and despair. [...] In this critically important book, Case and Deaton tie the crisis to the weakening position of labor, the growing power of corporations, and, above all, to a rapacious health-care sector that redistributes working-class wages into the pockets of the wealthy. Capitalism, which over two centuries lifted countless people out of poverty, is now destroying the lives of blue-collar America.
     

    Germany has good earning jobs in manufacturing without excess hours of work, a peculiar culture of wellness, and a fantastic health service. I made some comments about it at the begining of the pandemic.

    Replies: @Thoughts

    , @Mark G.
    @Redman


    Any thoughts on why places like Germany and Sweden had zero or close to zero excess death in 2020?
     
    After a initial blunder of letting returning travelers back into Sweden without quarantining them, the Swedish authorities did a pretty good job. Sweden was unfortunate that they have a later holiday period than some of the other Nordic countries and many Swedes were taking holiday vacations in Europe at the same time the epidemic was sweeping across the continent. There was also an issue with a large number of immigrants working in Swedish nursing homes not following the proper health procedures due to poor language skills, low IQ, and them not caring about a bunch of old Swedish people they weren't related to.

    The Swedish authorities focused on protecting the elderly rather than long harsh business lockdowns and this was probably the best strategy, as they ended up not having high numbers of excess deaths and their economy contracted less than the EU average. Florida here in the U.S. also followed a shield the elderly strategy and, adjusted for age distribution, did about as well as California with its extensive lockdown measures. The poster child for a not protect the elderly strategy was Cuomo with his injection of COVID patients into nursing homes, resulting in high death numbers in New York.
  22. Sub says:
    @Steve Sailer
    @Bill Jones

    Nah, just look at the total number of deaths each week.

    I realize it's hard to admit you were wrong, but it's good for the soul.

    Replies: @Hernan Pizzaro del Blanco, @Desiderius, @Sub, @Citizen of a Silly Country, @Travis, @Mr. Anon, @Anthony Aaron, @Marquis, @anon, @Scott Locklin, @Corvinus

    The problem with looking at total deaths is that at the same time Covid was going around, many governments were engaging in policies which could potentially cause a spike in deaths even in the absence of an infectious disease going around, as noted by Achmed in another comment.

    If you want to use this chart to make the point you are trying to make, you need to account for how many of these deaths are due to policy vs how many are due to COVID, which is almost impossible due to the ass-backwards way the CDC is classifying COVID deaths within a 28 day window of infection, something they do not do for any other cause of death.

    • Replies: @Steve Sailer
    @Sub

    Sorry, but this isn't a graph of covid deaths, it's a graph of all deaths.

    Replies: @TomSchmidt, @JimDandy, @Thoughts

    , @Anon
    @Sub


    The problem with looking at total deaths is that at the same time Covid was going around, many governments were engaging in policies which could potentially cause a spike in deaths even in the absence of an infectious disease going around
     
    If that were the case, shouldn’t we expect the curve to be a lot flatter? Elevated, but flat.
  23. Is there a correlation between vaccine rates and infection rates?

    • Replies: @Simon Tugmutton
    @Johann Theron

    Yes.

    https://planetes360.fr/pr-luc-montagnier-les-variants-viennent-des-vaccinations/

    Luc Montagnier's credentials:

    https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Luc_Montagnier

    Anecdotally, there has been a wave of deaths, in care homes, after mass vaccination there of previously healthy people.

  24. @Yawrate
    Since we're currently in the midst of the Stage 3 (safety) trials for these vaccines I'm sure there will be some bad news. Probably not terrible news or we would have noticed by now.

    Vaccinations for SARS CV19 will not be going away for the foreseeable future. Since the mRNA vaccines code for only one spike protein on the virus and these viruses are well known for mutation and since we've vaccinated millions whilst the virus is freely circulating we'll end up with mutations that the vaccines can't stop. It's already happening with the variants we've seen from around the world. So be ready for endless fall vaccination campaigns. Big Pharma is loving it!

    To end on a positive note, after about 10 years or so we'll have mRNA vaccines totally figured out.

    Replies: @Jack D, @Barack Obama's secret Unz account

    So far, the mRNA vaccines have proved mostly effective against all the variants. The spike protein can only mutate so much without losing its ability to do what it is supposed to do. The choice of the spike protein as the target of the vaccine was wise for this reason. Let’s say you were designing an AI robot to kill poisonous snakes by looking for snakes with fangs. Snake could try to evade the robot by changing their color or appearance but as long as they still had fangs the robots would find them. If the snakes evolved not to have fangs then they wouldn’t be dangerous anymore and we wouldn’t care anyway.

    If a booster is needed, that’s not the end of the world – people get flu shots every year. You could say this is an endless fall vaccination campaign that Big Pharma loves, but no one ever blinked an eye at this necessity. Some vaccines are good for life or for a number of years and others need to be repeated annually – that’s just how it is. It’s a result of biology, not some plot by Big Pharma. Big Pharma would love to sell you a measles shot every year too but they can’t because one shot is sufficient.

    • Agree: Dissident
    • Replies: @Anon
    @Jack D


    So far, the mRNA vaccines have proved mostly effective against all the variants.
     
    Which vaccine would you recommend one get? The mRNA or the Johnson & Johnson?

    Replies: @Jack D

    , @Yancey Ward
    @Jack D

    Mutations that survive don't work like you seem to believe, Jack.

    , @Buzz Mohawk
    @Jack D


    If a booster is needed, that’s not the end of the world – people get flu shots every year.
     
    My question to you, Jack, is why do you get a flu shot every year?

    As I've said, I have never had a flu shot, and I can't remember the last time I had the flu, bro.

    What I do remember is when the flu shot was invented. I was a younger man then, and in my naive way, I thought there would be one shot for the flu and that was it. I didn't bother to get one, but lo-and-behold, there has been a campaign every year since to get a flu shot, and there has been a new flu shot every year.

    My father used to bug me about it. "Did you get a flu shot?" No Dad. "Why not? You really should get the flu shot." And on and on for years.

    Back to my question. If the flu, bro, is not that lethal, then why does everybody, like you I assume, get a flu shot? Is it because you just hate getting sick? I understand that, but that's an inconvenience. Logic again: If COVID-19 is even worse than the flu, then the flu is mild in comparison. (I am willing to admit that.) Okay, so, why do you get a stupid shot every year for a mild illness? (An illness I haven't had in many years, without a shot, BTW.)

    Look, all of this is well-intended, at least among people like you and Steve Sailer, but isn't it usually better to let nature do a job man isn't cut out for? I don't know it, but I suspect that my own immune system is naturally stronger and far superior to yours now, simply because it has been successfully killing invaders for years and years without outside aid. If we had let SARS-CoV-2 run its course, there would be more people like me and humans would be stronger, but no, now we have a world full of innoculated sheep who will need a shot every year. Great acomplishment!

    NOTE: I may not know what I am talking about. LOL Have a nice day and stay healthy.

    Replies: @Jonathan Mason, @Jack D, @Wilkey, @Western

  25. The age structure of the group of people who reportedly died of COVID is skewed very highly towards the 75+ crowd.

    https://www.heritage.org/data-visualizations/public-health/covid-19-deaths-by-age/

    Within that crowd, the most vulnerable to COVID seemed to be those in weaker overall health. Further, “Long-Covid” seems fairly rare and basically a synonym for “hysteria”. Fatal vaccine reactions also seems fairly rare — otherwise we’d be seeing suspiciously big bumps in overall mortality timed to vaccine rollout in all different places, which, Alex Berenson’s fever dreams aside, we really don’t see in any country.

    With all that in mind, I’m going to be bolder that our host here and predict the next 3 or so years will see a very noticable shortage of deaths, where expected victims of more normal strains of flu and pneumonia will be in short supply thanks to their having been Pre-Killed For Our Convenience by what I am convinced is Chinese biosafety malpractice, a/k/a the COVID pandemic

  26. Perhaps it won’t be an epidemic in the United States after now, especially if about 65- 70% of the population ends up getting vaccinated by Labor Day, as seems entirely likely by this stage, but that graph also seems to show that this is a disease that peaks in wintertime conditions, with everyone shut up together indoors a lot. So, herd immunity or not, there will probably a modest uptick in cases come November and December, but not in the way we’ve seen in the last year, especially last winter.

    I expect many of the Covid cases we’ll experience will be from the 70 million or so foreigners who visit here every year, and who, by and large, are not vaccinated, and won’t likely be mostly vaccinated within a year.

    • Replies: @Jack D
    @PiltdownMan


    I expect many of the Covid cases we’ll experience will be from the 70 million or so foreigners who visit here every year, and who, by and large, are not vaccinated, and won’t likely be mostly vaccinated within a year.
     
    Putting aside the people who just stroll in across the Mexican border, I assume that once foreign travel resumes, foreign visitors will be required to be vaccinated and/or to screen negative for Covid in order to be exempt from quarantine - that's how they are doing it in Europe. I'm sure there will be some fraud/non-compliance but most visitors will comply.

    Replies: @Achmed E. Newman

  27. @Desiderius

    So, while I’m sure debates about dying-with-covid vs. dying-from-covid are fascinating, they aren’t relevant here.
     
    Homer nods.

    The argument (of which dying-with-covid is only a part) is that the cure was/is (much) worse than the disease due to things like missed cancer screenings and the like. That would also produce the same excess deaths as the not-just-the-flu theory.

    The truth is probably somewhere in the middle shaded toward the bad cure side.

    Replies: @Jack D, @TomSchmidt

    I think that the “missed cancer screenings” hypothesis could be pretty easily refuted – you would expect these excess deaths to occur pretty evenly in every place and at every time that had similar lockdown regimes. But if you look at actual excess deaths, these shot up in perfect correlation with reported outbreaks in each state.

    TBH, cancer screenings are not all that effective (although they are very profitable for doctors). There aren’t that many kinds of cancer that will kill you within a year if they are not detected early but if they are your life will be saved. If it was really like that, women should be getting mammograms every month instead of annually. Maybe if we stopped all cancer screenings forever it would be bad but a one year pause in screenings (not that there was ever a complete pause) is not going to have a big effect – the tumor that wasn’t found on last year’s (missed) mammogram will be detected in this year’s mammogram.

    • Agree: ic1000
    • Replies: @Desiderius
    @Jack D

    Look, Jack, I drove myself to an ER while blacking out due to a Systolic north of 200 and swerved off the road twice on the way there. Was lucky to make it. I did that because that was the only place where there were people who could save my life.

    If people avoiding hospitals doesn't spike deaths then we've got bigger problems than COVID. Don't piss on my leg and tell me it's raining.

    Replies: @Jack D, @Art Deco

    , @Anonymous
    @Jack D



    I think that the “missed cancer screenings” hypothesis could be pretty easily refuted – you would expect these excess deaths to occur pretty evenly in every place and at every time that had similar lockdown regimes. But if you look at actual excess deaths, these shot up in perfect correlation with reported outbreaks in each state...

    TBH, cancer screenings are not all that effective (although they are very profitable for doctors). There aren’t that many kinds of cancer that will kill you within a year if they are not detected early but if they are your life will be saved.
     
    Colon cancer is a big killer. Colonoscopies were delayed in many areas due to the shutdown. These excess deaths from colorectal cancer will start showing up in 2-5 years.

    https://www.msn.com/en-us/tv/celebrity/fox-anchor-is-diagnosed-with-colon-cancer-after-her-screening-was-canceled-3-times-due-to-pandemic/ar-AAKfkoW
    , @Art Deco
    @Jack D

    TBH, cancer screenings are not all that effective

    They're hardly done for anything other than breast cancer, prostate cancer, cervical cancer, and colon cancer. For the last, they're only done for 1st and 2d degree relatives of people who've had it.

    The one type of cancer that's a killer due to insidious metastases is ovarian cancer, but they never seemed to have developed a screen for it.

    , @Barack Obama's secret Unz account
    @Jack D

    Firstly, look at Steve's graph: excess deaths are above baseline from pandemic start, even outside of those "waves"; and the third wave is bigger than the first two, which is weird. People should be more immune after a year, not less, so what was killing everybody?

    I think you're loading the dice a little with breast cancer: it's true many of those screenings are a waste of time, and there's an argument to be made that many mastectomies are unnecessary, only being performed because something benign gets picked up by the screening, and the doctor decides to err on the side of caution. (For the doctor, that is: I don't wanna get sued, and anyway, it's not my tits getting chopped off... Bonus: you get to refer the chick to your mate the plastic surgeon for cosmetic implants, and he repays you by letting you use one of his guest passes at the country club.)

    But there are other fast-acting cancers that might've been caught by routine screening, but whose symptoms might not have become apparent until it was too late: some prostate cancers, for instance. And what about that persistent indigestion? Or those headaches you've been getting... it's probably nothing... Maybe you'd double-check with your doctor, but there's no call to be a hypochondriac while there's a pandemic. The man's probably swamped!

    Then there's all the heart problems and diabetes and various other weird diseases that might've been picked up early - including something as simple as obesity, which, although hardly invisible, nonetheless might take medical intervention to fix.

    "Missed cancer screenings" is really better expressed as "Withdrawal from the medical system".

    Presumably, the medical system is doing something to dampen mortality, right? And it's undeniable that interactions with doctors declined in 2020. So either the mass withdrawal from the medical system would cause mortality to rise, or doctors weren't actually holding it down in the first place.

    Obviously the most serious and obviously life-threatening medical problems were more likely to be attended to in spite of the broader withdrawal trend. But the point stands; even the New York Times concedes it.

  28. I too have relied upon total excess deaths as best indicator. That said, it has always appeared that risk is spread very unevenly across demographic groups and that, therefore, recommendations should be tailored to your risk category.

    For example, there seems to be little risk for those under 25 and I think it is fair to say very little risk for those who are healthy and young (see link for age excess death breakdown).

    https://www.cdc.gov/nchs/nvss/vsrr/covid19/excess_deaths.htm

    Based on these data, it seems that young people should forgo the vaccine. Is this a valid conclusion?

    • Agree: TomSchmidt
    • Replies: @Chrisnonymous
    @curtis dunkel

    No, but they shouldn't have been kept at home, masked, and distanced.

    , @Ben Kurtz
    @curtis dunkel

    My judgement is that people under 40 who are in good health and not in regular contact with old or sick folks are really in a take-it-or-leave-it situation. If they want the vaccine they should take it; if they don't, fine -- and as a society we should not be implementing any policies to try to coerce them into it. Florida is exactly right to ban vaccine passport schemes, even voluntary ones in privately owned establishments.

    Replies: @Jonathan Mason

    , @Achmed E. Newman
    @curtis dunkel

    There are unknown risks for fertility, as pointed out by Michelle Malkin - see "Pregnant Women: Beware of COVID Shots", right here on the Unz Review. I don't think any woman under 30 ought to get this vaccine. For a man 25 or under, what would the point be either? Take it or leave it, as Mr. Kurtz wrote.

    Replies: @Jack D

  29. @Jake Barnes
    SARS-CoV-2 is a potentially serious respiratory / pulmonary disease, though for most people not serious. Covid is a spiritual and mental disease that has broken out culture and perhaps global civilization. There is no vaccine against the latter. We’re doomed.

    Replies: @tyrone

    We are under biological attack…..definitely one of the top ten weapons of all time…..don’t worry, there will be more,I hear zika viruses are real nasty.

  30. @Sub
    @Steve Sailer

    The problem with looking at total deaths is that at the same time Covid was going around, many governments were engaging in policies which could potentially cause a spike in deaths even in the absence of an infectious disease going around, as noted by Achmed in another comment.

    If you want to use this chart to make the point you are trying to make, you need to account for how many of these deaths are due to policy vs how many are due to COVID, which is almost impossible due to the ass-backwards way the CDC is classifying COVID deaths within a 28 day window of infection, something they do not do for any other cause of death.

    Replies: @Steve Sailer, @Anon

    Sorry, but this isn’t a graph of covid deaths, it’s a graph of all deaths.

    • Replies: @TomSchmidt
    @Steve Sailer

    Like with murder,it's hard to fake a dead body. There was definitely increased dying last year, whatever the cause.

    Euromomo does something similar for European countries. You've pointed out something important: if deaths are excess, then there must be a respite at some point, a time of under-dying to go back to the Z-score norm. If you take a look at the country graphs,

    https://euromomo.eu/graphs-and-maps/

    You notice this in England and Scotland: massive spike in deaths, and recent deficit in deaths. To be dehumanizing, clearing out underbrush.

    But Spain is a real mystery. It's not just COVID. There are death spikes in 2017 and 2018, and no subsequent "death valley" to coin a term. The killer COVID spike of 2020 did lead to a subsequent, short period of underdying but then Spain returned to a Z score of 0 or above.

    Maybe their baseline death rate needs to be moved up?

    One last item: note the Ukraine had fewer deaths in early 2020, presumably while locked down. No COVID spike. They did get a spike last fall and early this year. You might use the early 2020 Ukraine data to show that lockdowns DID save lives, just not from COVID.

    , @JimDandy
    @Steve Sailer

    This is an interesting post, Steve, and I agree with this:

    "the novel coronavirus is neither the end of the world nor nothing. It’s a sizable problem."

    with the only point of contention being how "sizable" of a problem.

    The CDC (etc.) is saying that 2/3 of the excess deaths were caused by Covid. Does this mean that there were a sizable number of excess non-Covid deaths? If so, why? And how arbitrary/political/debatable is the "2/3" figure?

    I saw that about 90 percent of the Covid dead were people over 60, and something like 80 percent were over 80. The media and politicians pushed the narrative that "Covid does not discriminate" to the point where lots of smart people thought that Covid was a serious threat to healthy people under 60 years old. It wasn't, but people who said as much were characterized as loons.

    And I think you make a very interesting point here:

    It could be that total deaths will therefore drop below average in the near future due to the people who would die then having already died due to the virus.


    Bottom line for me is the fact that, as you said, coronavirus isn't the end of the world--but our leaders and media forced us all to live like it is.

    , @Thoughts
    @Steve Sailer

    I know a woman who was an anorexic in her late teens who has lost a ton of weight over the last year of Covid to the point where her jaw could cut glass

    How many excess deaths are people being pushed over the edge by government policies and simple fearmongering stress?

    I think we have to call bull on Covid to save lives.

    You know how Scott Adams says Fauci wore the mask to overreact in order to make people more likely to wear masks?

    Well we have to do the same thing...Call Covid bull to drag people back to normalcy to save lives.

    I also think once they start giving out third vaccine shots your little joke of 'We'll all be dead because of the vax' won't be such a joke anymore.

    This isn't about truth, it's about sanity. I don't care about truth anymore. I care about sanity.

  31. @Mike Tre
    Again how many access deaths are the result of the lockdowns (deaths of despair - or sick people made afraid to seek treatment?) You say it isn't relevant but it absolutely is. The blogger Hail has address all of this and illustrated simply that the world has experienced these mild outbreaks many many times and all run their course and life and society goes on. The weak ass virus did not justify the actions taken. Period.

    Steve, you and many here applauded the further establishing of a malevolent police state. You averted your eyes to big tech, big retail, and big pharma killing the small business model. You shrugged your shoulders at the humiliating and manipulative purposes behind wearing face masks.

    You were wrong then. You are wrong now.

    Replies: @Steve Sailer, @HA

    Why weren’t there a ton of excess deaths in September after 6 months of lockdown vs. August and April? It’s almost like excess deaths tended to follow a few weeks behind covid cases peaking.

    • Replies: @Mike Tre
    @Steve Sailer

    How many excess deaths of people under 20? It's almost as if you supported all of the draconian measures out of you being afraid to die.

    Replies: @MGB, @Anon

  32. @BB753
    "(There have been practically zero flu deaths in 2021 so far, which has helped.)"
    Does anybody really believe that?

    Replies: @Steve Sailer

    Please explain your contorted logic why that wouldn’t be so?

    • Replies: @Pop Warner
    @Steve Sailer

    Could you explain your contorted logic how the flu completely disappeared? I mean, we have been told by the experts that the flu disappeared because of masks and social distancing, but covid cases seemed to rise and fall independent of that. Not to mention we were also told that evil nazi Republicans spread the virus because they refused to wear masks. However, those evil nazi Republicans who didn't mask or social distance seemed to also be immune from the flu. So what protected antimaskers from the flu that didn't protect them from covid?

    Replies: @res, @Anonymous

    , @Barack Obama's secret Unz account
    @Steve Sailer

    I believe the logic is something like this: if, in 2019, you'd run 35+CT PCR tests for the latest rhinovirus on suspected influenza cases instead of testing for influenza, you would have had yourself a rhinovirus pandemic and a mysteriously vanishing flu.

    I'm not sure whether this theory is correct, but I believe that's the idea being put about. I suppose one way to get an inkling would be to see what proportion of presumed influenza deaths in previous years actually tested negative for influenza.

    , @BB753
    @Steve Sailer

    Because it would be a first in human history. So very unlikely.

  33. @Yawrate
    Since we're currently in the midst of the Stage 3 (safety) trials for these vaccines I'm sure there will be some bad news. Probably not terrible news or we would have noticed by now.

    Vaccinations for SARS CV19 will not be going away for the foreseeable future. Since the mRNA vaccines code for only one spike protein on the virus and these viruses are well known for mutation and since we've vaccinated millions whilst the virus is freely circulating we'll end up with mutations that the vaccines can't stop. It's already happening with the variants we've seen from around the world. So be ready for endless fall vaccination campaigns. Big Pharma is loving it!

    To end on a positive note, after about 10 years or so we'll have mRNA vaccines totally figured out.

    Replies: @Jack D, @Barack Obama's secret Unz account

    To end on a positive note, after about 10 years or so we’ll have mRNA vaccines totally figured out.

    Assuming that the technology is not a dead end. They never did make an mRNA drug or vaccine which passed safety trials pre-2020, despite thirty years of trying. Who knows what happens when they return to pre-crisis safety standards?

  34. Steve, go to the CDC site that you link to, scroll to the chart, and select option “Weekly Number of Deaths by Cause Group.”

    I will show that the vast majority of excess deaths in the main chart came from “Circulatory Diseases” and “Alzheimer and Dementia.”

    “Respiratory Diseases” show only a small bump in March-April 2020 (with its top below the levels of 2015 and 2018) and after that stay at the normal level.

    I don’t know what it means but I’d like to point this out.

    • Thanks: Yancey Ward
    • Replies: @Chrisnonymous
    @inertial

    The fact that COVID results in respiratory and circulatory problems and attacks the elderly (dementia) combined with the fact that these spikes happened in the beginning of the year but not with the later spikes in total excess deaths implies that (the most simple explanation) in early stages there were COVID-related deaths that were not recognized as being part of the pandemic and were ascribed to other causes.

    The real challenge to Steve is not on stats like this graph but in the philosophical positions underlying his preferences. What is the nature of society and to what extent is death a natural part of human existence?

    Part of the amazing thing to me about 2020 is the extent to which public discussion has avoided addressing questions like the trade-off between freedom and wealth on the one hand and safety on the other--a trade-off in which our society frequently comes down on the side of freedom and wealth, just not in this case. Steve's statements that he prefers to save as many people as possible do not constitute tackling that question. But I can't be too critical because public intellectuals just haven't been talking about that for the past year.

    On Unz Review, the debate has literally not risen above name-calling. Commenters like utu and HA call everyone who questions their pet issues psychopaths who want to kill off the elderly while commenters like Achmed E. Newmann call me a totalitarian for daring to broach the question of whether we should have a national conversation about the acceptability or advisability of a Wuhan-level lockdown at the beginning of a pandemic to nip it in the bud.

    In the wider society, as many have noted, the pandemic just became another field on which to wage the virtue-signaling political battles that have come to characterize our intellectual life.

    It's not just an academic question either, because we are likely to have other pandemic or natural disasters in the future and our inability to talk about issues is an inability to plan. As some astute observers have noted, although many ascribed early-stage failures to Trump, the reality is that they were failures of our institutions and political elites, not of Trump personally. Hopefully, as the hysteria recedes, we will not be hit with another crisis immediately (like war in Taiwan), and people like Steve can do something more useful than re-publishing graphs created by the agencies that failed.

  35. @Desiderius
    @Steve Sailer

    Physician heal thyself.

    Replies: @Matt Buckalew

    Look Steve’s kids weren’t gonna voluntarily stay home for a year and a half and Steve lacks the authority and disposition to make them- so we needed to shut the country down.

    Not to mention Steve’s zero percent chance of knowing what Gospel that’s from is part and parcel to boomer solipsistic secularism leading to terror in the face of even the slightest hint of death. A

    • Replies: @Dieter Kief
    @Matt Buckalew


    boomer solipsistic secularism leading to terror in the face of even the slightest hint of death.
     
    Life and death are internally related (and thus connected). This is the hard part of human existence and secularisation is always tempted to rip the circle of life and death apart and thus trying to get one without the other (= to believe in white (sigh) magic).

    Replies: @Anonymous

  36. @Jack D
    @Desiderius

    I think that the "missed cancer screenings" hypothesis could be pretty easily refuted - you would expect these excess deaths to occur pretty evenly in every place and at every time that had similar lockdown regimes. But if you look at actual excess deaths, these shot up in perfect correlation with reported outbreaks in each state.

    TBH, cancer screenings are not all that effective (although they are very profitable for doctors). There aren't that many kinds of cancer that will kill you within a year if they are not detected early but if they are your life will be saved. If it was really like that, women should be getting mammograms every month instead of annually. Maybe if we stopped all cancer screenings forever it would be bad but a one year pause in screenings (not that there was ever a complete pause) is not going to have a big effect - the tumor that wasn't found on last year's (missed) mammogram will be detected in this year's mammogram.

    Replies: @Desiderius, @Anonymous, @Art Deco, @Barack Obama's secret Unz account

    Look, Jack, I drove myself to an ER while blacking out due to a Systolic north of 200 and swerved off the road twice on the way there. Was lucky to make it. I did that because that was the only place where there were people who could save my life.

    If people avoiding hospitals doesn’t spike deaths then we’ve got bigger problems than COVID. Don’t piss on my leg and tell me it’s raining.

    • Replies: @Jack D
    @Desiderius

    Right, but you did in fact go to the hospital. People who are having heart attacks or strokes and who don't call the ambulance (which you should have BTW) deserve to be Darwin Award winners. Maybe there were a few of these but as I said before, excess deaths tracked Covid outbreaks EXACTLY, city by city - this can't be due to health care avoidance which would have been more or less the same everywhere.

    Replies: @Desiderius, @Mr. Anon, @Wielgus

    , @Art Deco
    @Desiderius

    Look, Jack, I drove myself to an ER while blacking out due to a Systolic north of 200 and swerved off the road twice on the way there. Was lucky to make it. I did that because that was the only place where there were people who could save my life.

    Why not call an ambulance? Or at least a cab?

    Replies: @Desiderius

  37. @curtis dunkel
    I too have relied upon total excess deaths as best indicator. That said, it has always appeared that risk is spread very unevenly across demographic groups and that, therefore, recommendations should be tailored to your risk category.

    For example, there seems to be little risk for those under 25 and I think it is fair to say very little risk for those who are healthy and young (see link for age excess death breakdown).

    https://www.cdc.gov/nchs/nvss/vsrr/covid19/excess_deaths.htm

    Based on these data, it seems that young people should forgo the vaccine. Is this a valid conclusion?

    Replies: @Chrisnonymous, @Ben Kurtz, @Achmed E. Newman

    No, but they shouldn’t have been kept at home, masked, and distanced.

  38. @Almost Missouri
    For the record, I agree with you that covid was a real thing, though not as real and serious as classical plagues. And that it is prima facie compelling that the excess death waves corresponded pretty well with the "covid cases'" timing and location. Still, one could equally well argue that the most likely source of non-covid excess deaths: i.e. deaths from ordinary non-contagious cardio-pulmonary conditions, which even in covid times were a larger source of deaths than covid, are also most likely to go untreated—and therefore become fatal—in the same times and places as covid case surges occur, as people avoid (or public officials deter) ordinary medical treatment they would otherwise seek.

    Also, re "zero flu deaths", the CDC recently mixed flu and covid together into a new joint category called "PIC" (pneumonia, influenza, and covid), so I'm not sure how much significance we can attach to the "zero flu death" claim. This leaves aside the fact that coronaviruses are anyway an ordinary component of annual influenzas, and that "influenza deaths" itself has always been a dubiously confected statistic that has only existed for about 15 years.

    But anyway, yes, it is good news that the excess deaths, whatever their source, are finally coming down. And your blog is the first (and so far as I know, only) place to report this significant fact.

    Replies: @Barack Obama's secret Unz account, @Daniel Williams

    Still, one could equally well argue that the most likely source of non-covid excess deaths: i.e. deaths from ordinary non-contagious cardio-pulmonary conditions, which even in covid times were a larger source of deaths than covid, are also most likely to go untreated—and therefore become fatal—in the same times and places as covid case surges occur, as people avoid (or public officials deter) ordinary medical treatment they would otherwise seek.

    Suppose NPIs have killed lots of people. Let’s divide those deaths into two categories, acute and chronic. (Or immediate and delayed.) NPIs rise and fall largely in conjunction with COVID cases, ergo acute NPI deaths will spike along with cases: e.g. heart attacks, as you say, or perhaps bacterial/viral/fungal pneumonias caused by breathing thru a dirty mask all day.

    Chronic NPI deaths however will not follow the lockdown arcs, but rather their own longer arc: we might see them rising steadily for several years before beginning to decline. (This will be hard to detect with all the other fluctuations in the death rate.) This might explain why excess deaths remained higher than expected even outside of the three waves, and why the third wave was biggest and longest-lasting: maybe longer-gestating medical problems, like cancer or diabetes, had started killing people because they weren’t treated earlier in the year. Remember, supposedly it’s typical for a pandemic virus to kill less with each wave, as prior immunity has built up – and yet the third wave is bigger than the first, and takes much longer to subside.

    • Replies: @Jon
    @Barack Obama's secret Unz account


    bacterial/viral/fungal pneumonias caused by breathing thru a dirty mask all day.
     
    This isn't a thing. I've been in Korea during the pandemic - everyone is masked, all day, every day. There is no spike in bacterial/viral/fungal pneumonias. And before you try to say that all of those deaths were probably just shifted to the COVID death category, look at Korea's death toll for the pandemic. It's been very low.

    Replies: @Barack Obama's secret Unz account

  39. MGB says:
    @Bill Jones
    It's particularly hard to make confidence-inducing predictions when believing the bullshit emanating from the CDC.
    Their "excess deaths" number is a wholly fictional artifact constructed by creating an expected number of deaths by major causes, comparing this fiction to reported deaths then, if deaths from a none controversial cause is below expectations, "normalizing"- i.e adjusting upward, that number.
    Thus if heart attacks (London suffered a real dearth of heart attacks for a couple of months because it was the covid not the heart that attacked them) fall, they are adjusted upward to meet expectations and voila! excess deaths.

    With the CDC'S inauguration day gift to Resident Biden of turning down the PCR cycles on tests, it's ok for people to go back to dying from what killed them.

    https://catholiccitizens.org/news/94232/covid-cases-plummet-after-who-changes-testing-protocol-on-bidens-inauguration-day/


    Meanwhile, the same technique is being used to amp up the "effectiveness" of the experimental gene therapy masquerading as a vaccine.
    https://off-guardian.org/2021/05/18/how-the-cdc-is-manipulating-data-to-prop-up-vaccine-effectiveness/


    The reason for all of this, other than the massively destructive transfer of power to the State is that the CDC effectively became a drug company with the passage of the Bayh-Dole act in 1980.

    https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Bayh%E2%80%93Dole_Act


    Faucci owns over 50 patents, Gates isn't the only angel of death making out like a bandit,

    Replies: @Steve Sailer, @MGB, @Jim Christian

    So what you’re saying, in part, is that correlation is not causation. Even worse though is that there aren’t even two reliable sets of data to compare. There are no reliable data for the ‘the three waves of coronavirus cases’. The hysterics have gone from measuring the apocalypse by linking positive PCR testing and individual deaths, to advancing the excess deaths theory, which does not need reliable PCR testing, to this hybrid ‘case waves’ excess death theory, which again requires that the test be reliable.

    None of those arguments takes into consideration the possible impact of the half assed quarantine, driving people from their homes, bankrupting small businesses, isolating the elderly from any human contact. I have been able to visit my 90-year old mother 3-4 times per week during this because, thankfully, she is still in her own home, but she has friends, both living independently and in LTC facilities, who spent more than a year isolated from their family, some of whom died. Was it simply their time, or did being terrorized and isolated hasten their death? Who knows. But this retardedly simple correlation theory doesn’t allow for any conclusion other than ‘the pandemic killed a whole bunch of people.’ As for the future of children and adolescents who spent 7 hours a day for a year in virtual class rooms, with no social interaction, growing obese, depressed and anxious, ‘we shall see.’

    • Replies: @Bill Jones
    @MGB

    My father in law died of the covid lockdown. His wife of half a century or so died ( of real natural causes) and because of the clusterfuck of restrictions he was isolated, unable to receive family or friends or have a funeral for his wife.
    He was dead within 6 weeks. I had been out to Colorado three months earlier to see him and we'd gone for a stroll around the gardens and discussed the work he'd done for the Rand corporation in the 70's on limited nuclear strike scenarios. He was sound in mind and body.
    Fuck the politicians and their lick-spittle minions.

  40. @Steve Sailer
    @Mike Tre

    Why weren't there a ton of excess deaths in September after 6 months of lockdown vs. August and April? It's almost like excess deaths tended to follow a few weeks behind covid cases peaking.

    Replies: @Mike Tre

    How many excess deaths of people under 20? It’s almost as if you supported all of the draconian measures out of you being afraid to die.

    • Agree: Yancey Ward
    • Replies: @MGB
    @Mike Tre

    I have not checked recent stats but there was an article in the FT about a week ago questioning the necessity of vaccinating 12-15 year olds given that there were only a couple of hundred deaths attributed to COVID in the 0-18 category, that out of a population of about 78 million. More recorded deaths in that age group from auto accidents or drowning during the same time frame. Come to think of it maybe the Chinese did release the virus knowing how the likes of Sailer and Unz would react, conducting psychological warfare on their own grandkids. Used to be grandparents and parents sacrificing for the kids. The social security crowd has turned that dynamic on its head.

    Replies: @Paleo Liberal

    , @Anon
    @Mike Tre

    If I recall, you've written that you have teenage kids. Over the past 15 months, one of my family members has experienced the following:

    Cancellation of his senior season of varsity basketball (his lifelong passion), Zoom classes for the last couple months of high school, no prom, a drive-thru graduation with no socializing, no last summer with childhood friends, and a bizarre, partially-virtual freshman year of college with limited socializing. Based on his age and health, COVID poses no risk to him at all.

    I'd like some of the pro-restriction crowd, like HA, to walk us through the moral logic under which it was right to do this to him. And if it was right to make him sacrifice all this for the vulnerable, have you expressed any gratitude for the fact that he did it? Should we have some kind of national reward for young people when this is over?

    It seems like no one talks about this at all. One of the weirdest things about the pandemic has been the callous indifference that commentators and authorities have shown towards young people.

    Replies: @HA

  41. Counter to some narratives, there was a clear bump last summer during the riots, accounting for about 30-40,000 deaths over the trend (which was already elevated a few thousand). Was it outdoor transmission, people with chest pain afraid to drive to the ER through a riot, or transmission among rioters and protestors while they were bunched up in parking lots getting ready to raise hell?

    But I guess it was worth it to save 30 blacks a year from getting shot by the cops.

  42. @Achmed E. Newman
    As I wrote to AnotherDad yesterday, I'd done a fairly quick calculation based on the following:

    - All the pages I'd pulled up, from the CDC and others, said they used a baseline (note "line", not "curve") of "normal deaths" from an average of '15 to '19 deaths of Americans. Yeah, but the average age of an American is rising fairly quickly.

    - I pulled up US Census pages that have 5-year age brackets of Americans by age and sex.

    - I pulled up tables of data via Statista that has (unfortunately only 10-year) brackets of death rate by age for various years.

    - Just calculations of 2 5-year brackets together of age groups (from the first table) x death rates of each 10-year bracket of death rates by age gives number of deaths expected in any one of these normal years. (yes, "normal" is hard to break out from "slightly bad flu season", "year after slightly bad flu season", etc.)

    - For the year '19 alone, I'd gotten something like 150,000 additional deaths just due to aging vs. that average '15-'19 average that the CDC and others use. No, that's not most of these excess deaths, but not insignificant either.

    This is nothing groundbreaking or hard - it's just that a '15-'19 baseline for "normal" deaths is significantly lower than a normal one based on how much more aged the population was in '19 alone (much less '20).

    Yes, I need to show my work. I will get on this later today, as I have to go right now and don't want to rush this now. (Gotta round up all the old browser tabs too.) I don't blog on Sundays, but tomorrow I'll put up a post on Peak Stupidity.

    Replies: @theMann, @Bill, @Barack Obama's secret Unz account, @Mr Mox, @Turtlelamp

    Keep up the good fight, looking at the meta data.

    Let me add:
    1. Quackcines either are, or are not, responsible for the massive increase in Autism, throughout the Western world, especially the USA. This could easily be verified by using control group vs. inoculated populations in statistical samples. Which has never been done.
    2. Quackcines either are, or are not, causing Alzheimer’s disease in the aged through metal accumulation in the brain. This could be verified by control group vs. inoculated sample groups…
    3. Quackcines either are, or are not, causing diabetes in people. This could be determined by….you get the idea.
    4. The Guardasil Quackcine, in addition to causing major autoimmune results in its victims, either did, or did not, result in upwards of 20% of the teenage girls receiving it having their ovaries permanently damaged to the point of sterility. Which could be easily statistically sampled……

    Now you would think, given the unending increase in Autism, Alzheimer’s, and Diabetes as well as the massive drop off in teen pregnancies, that this would be looking into, especially since initial testing for causes would be so easy? Right?

    Wrong.

    Then, there is this:

    https://www.lewrockwell.com/lrc-blog/if-people-get-jabbed-after-watching-this-they-are-beyond-saving/

    Not to mention the fact that mRNA experimental gene therapy has a two year death rate in the inoculated approaching 90-100%. Considering how deadly “the Covid” isn’t, is that worth the risk?

    All we have from the “Authorities” are lies, upon lies, topped off by more lies. And half of you are still hopping in line to lick their asses for more lies. If so many of you are still that scared shitless over “the Covid”, eat an orange, get some sun, go lied down. Because prevention actually is that easy.

  43. @Steve Sailer
    @BB753

    Please explain your contorted logic why that wouldn't be so?

    Replies: @Pop Warner, @Barack Obama's secret Unz account, @BB753

    Could you explain your contorted logic how the flu completely disappeared? I mean, we have been told by the experts that the flu disappeared because of masks and social distancing, but covid cases seemed to rise and fall independent of that. Not to mention we were also told that evil nazi Republicans spread the virus because they refused to wear masks. However, those evil nazi Republicans who didn’t mask or social distance seemed to also be immune from the flu. So what protected antimaskers from the flu that didn’t protect them from covid?

    • Agree: Catdog, Yancey Ward
    • Replies: @res
    @Pop Warner

    The basic idea is that countermeasures sufficient to slow COVID (R0 of say 2.5-3.0) essentially eliminate transmission of normal flu with an R0 of more like 1.8.

    Replies: @Mr. Anon, @epebble

    , @Anonymous
    @Pop Warner

    How the f**k is all this so mysterious to people?

    I saw CovidCrazy coming from far away and explained it all to whomever cared to know, including locally, not anonymously. I did not lockdown or take any cautions at any moment and received tickets (in Europe) for not wearing a mask. And in NYC for 8 months I took the train daily and a mask did not touch my face for even a second.

    Yah, so here's your flu explanation.

    Few people have immunity to covid, it travels in small doses, almost nobody who has it knows they have it so they mingle.

    The flu on the other hand has a damn hard time getting around so even small precautions will keep it from spreading.

    Plenty of people are immune to the flu. It can not spread from Reuvein to Shimon to Levi because Shimon and Levi are more or less immune to small amounts of whatever variant is around this year. Reuvein must somehow get to Naftali to find a receptive nasal cavity.

    And then he's gotta be sharing a pillow with Naftali or be spittling into his face from 6 inches away.

    And then this delicate chain can't have a weak link when Naftali or his protege Chushim Ben Dun simply stay home alone in bed until they aren't sneezing oodles of germs.

    And of course the chain will be broken because if you've got the flu you're unlike to be out and about spreading it and people who are in fact doing so tend to be avoided by those of us who prefer not to get sick -- or to be sneezed or coughed on....

    That the f**k is why precautions were silly for Covid but are not silly for preventing the spread of really really shitty diseases like the flu.

  44. Bill says:

    Somebody who really cared could estimate the final tallies for the latest eight weeks by building a model from looking at old data, but that’s too much work for me.

    That’s more difficult than it seems. You might think that you could do something simple like saying that, at two weeks out, 50% of deaths are reported, so you can double the two-week lag figures (and similar corrections for other lags up to 8 weeks). The problem is that this assumes that the distribution of lag structure stays the same in normal and covid times (and over the course of covid). Not a super-plausible assumption. You only find out whether the assumption is right once the data have come in . . . You also add lots of variance by multiplying like this.

  45. (There have been practically zero flu deaths in 2021 so far, which has helped.)

    Steve: Think of the absurdity of that statement. Could the US really go from 38million flu cases the year before to 3.8k last year???

    Sure, if we stipulate that the masks and social distancing and lockdowns were really good at stopping the flu, that also suggests they weren’t worth Jack Shit for COVID.

    The reality is that it indeed was just a really bad flu year, but the total excess deaths from for 2017 were actually larger than the excess deaths for 2020, and the quality-years lost in 2017 were three time those of 2020 because the 2017 flu took more younger folks than the 2020 round of COVID.

    Don’t get me started on the 4,300 recorded as deaths coincidental to COVID vaxxes since December, especially since CDC VAERS is believed to capture less than 10% of all vaccine adverse events in the USA.

  46. When I went for the second dose of the vaccine yesterday a member of the New York National Guard took down the registration information. The name on his uniform was Cuhahuatl, or close to that. It’s very rare to see Aztec surnames.

  47. Bill says:
    @Achmed E. Newman
    As I wrote to AnotherDad yesterday, I'd done a fairly quick calculation based on the following:

    - All the pages I'd pulled up, from the CDC and others, said they used a baseline (note "line", not "curve") of "normal deaths" from an average of '15 to '19 deaths of Americans. Yeah, but the average age of an American is rising fairly quickly.

    - I pulled up US Census pages that have 5-year age brackets of Americans by age and sex.

    - I pulled up tables of data via Statista that has (unfortunately only 10-year) brackets of death rate by age for various years.

    - Just calculations of 2 5-year brackets together of age groups (from the first table) x death rates of each 10-year bracket of death rates by age gives number of deaths expected in any one of these normal years. (yes, "normal" is hard to break out from "slightly bad flu season", "year after slightly bad flu season", etc.)

    - For the year '19 alone, I'd gotten something like 150,000 additional deaths just due to aging vs. that average '15-'19 average that the CDC and others use. No, that's not most of these excess deaths, but not insignificant either.

    This is nothing groundbreaking or hard - it's just that a '15-'19 baseline for "normal" deaths is significantly lower than a normal one based on how much more aged the population was in '19 alone (much less '20).

    Yes, I need to show my work. I will get on this later today, as I have to go right now and don't want to rush this now. (Gotta round up all the old browser tabs too.) I don't blog on Sundays, but tomorrow I'll put up a post on Peak Stupidity.

    Replies: @theMann, @Bill, @Barack Obama's secret Unz account, @Mr Mox, @Turtlelamp

    All the pages I’d pulled up, from the CDC and others, said they used a baseline (note “line”, not “curve”) of “normal deaths” from an average of ’15 to ’19 deaths of Americans. Yeah, but the average age of an American is rising fairly quickly.

    You’re saying the baseline mortality rate is not age-adjusted?

    • Replies: @Achmed E. Newman
    @Bill

    No, I'm not saying that. I'm saying it's based on an average of death rates over '15-'19, with the US population at the ages they were those years. It's very hard to get a baseline from just one year, as, after all '19 could have been a good year or a bad year.

    Let me give you this sentence from this CDC page:


    Weekly numbers of deaths by age group and race/ethnicity were assessed to examine the difference between the weekly number of deaths occurring in 2020 and the average number occurring in the same week during 2015–2019 and the percentage change in 2020.
     
    There are these blocks of age/ethnicity groups. (I'm not worried about the ethnicity part.) For each group the number of deaths in '15 - '19 were averaged and then each was subtracted from the same type group's deaths in '20 (that page had only late-01/20 - 10/03/20).

    You get, of course, an excess of deaths last year for each group, well maybe not significantly in the young people groups. It's that average I've got a problem with. That '15-'19 average for each group would get you a smaller base number to subtract out than a '19-alone number and even more so, a '20 number, were that possible.

    Now, I came across this NY Times (I know, I broke a multi-year streak just for this crap) article. It refers to the National Vital Statistics System at the CDC.

    Expected rates for each year are calculated using a simple linear regression based on rates from the previous five years.
     
    That's different, and I guess they mean expected rates for each age group, but they just say:

    Death rates are age-adjusted by the C.D.C. using the 2000 standard population.
     
    I'm gonna take the last 5 years and do this simply for It won't be as easy due to my not being home, but I'll see what that gets for baseline 2020 deaths.

    It was the CDC article linked-to which got me thinking about this. Just examining every one of these excess death graphs, again, that orange "upper-bound threshold"curve does not go up on average over those 4 years (in Steve's newest graph). It'll take me an hour or more to repeat what I did months ago, but I found my old tabs with those tables.

    Thanks, Bill, for getting me going.
  48. @Steve Sailer
    @Sub

    Sorry, but this isn't a graph of covid deaths, it's a graph of all deaths.

    Replies: @TomSchmidt, @JimDandy, @Thoughts

    Like with murder,it’s hard to fake a dead body. There was definitely increased dying last year, whatever the cause.

    Euromomo does something similar for European countries. You’ve pointed out something important: if deaths are excess, then there must be a respite at some point, a time of under-dying to go back to the Z-score norm. If you take a look at the country graphs,

    https://euromomo.eu/graphs-and-maps/

    You notice this in England and Scotland: massive spike in deaths, and recent deficit in deaths. To be dehumanizing, clearing out underbrush.

    But Spain is a real mystery. It’s not just COVID. There are death spikes in 2017 and 2018, and no subsequent “death valley” to coin a term. The killer COVID spike of 2020 did lead to a subsequent, short period of underdying but then Spain returned to a Z score of 0 or above.

    Maybe their baseline death rate needs to be moved up?

    One last item: note the Ukraine had fewer deaths in early 2020, presumably while locked down. No COVID spike. They did get a spike last fall and early this year. You might use the early 2020 Ukraine data to show that lockdowns DID save lives, just not from COVID.

  49. Anonymous[369] • Disclaimer says:
    @Jack D
    @Desiderius

    I think that the "missed cancer screenings" hypothesis could be pretty easily refuted - you would expect these excess deaths to occur pretty evenly in every place and at every time that had similar lockdown regimes. But if you look at actual excess deaths, these shot up in perfect correlation with reported outbreaks in each state.

    TBH, cancer screenings are not all that effective (although they are very profitable for doctors). There aren't that many kinds of cancer that will kill you within a year if they are not detected early but if they are your life will be saved. If it was really like that, women should be getting mammograms every month instead of annually. Maybe if we stopped all cancer screenings forever it would be bad but a one year pause in screenings (not that there was ever a complete pause) is not going to have a big effect - the tumor that wasn't found on last year's (missed) mammogram will be detected in this year's mammogram.

    Replies: @Desiderius, @Anonymous, @Art Deco, @Barack Obama's secret Unz account

    I think that the “missed cancer screenings” hypothesis could be pretty easily refuted – you would expect these excess deaths to occur pretty evenly in every place and at every time that had similar lockdown regimes. But if you look at actual excess deaths, these shot up in perfect correlation with reported outbreaks in each state…

    TBH, cancer screenings are not all that effective (although they are very profitable for doctors). There aren’t that many kinds of cancer that will kill you within a year if they are not detected early but if they are your life will be saved.

    Colon cancer is a big killer. Colonoscopies were delayed in many areas due to the shutdown. These excess deaths from colorectal cancer will start showing up in 2-5 years.

    https://www.msn.com/en-us/tv/celebrity/fox-anchor-is-diagnosed-with-colon-cancer-after-her-screening-was-canceled-3-times-due-to-pandemic/ar-AAKfkoW

  50. Anonymous[135] • Disclaimer says:
    @Anonymous
    “Or it could well be that covid has nasty long term effects on a non-trivial number of current survivors, who will die of long term effects.

    Or, perhaps, everybody will drop dead from the vaccine.”

    Autoimmune Diseases will now skyrocket from both the virus and the vaccine.

    Replies: @Anonymous, @SunBakedSuburb

    Autoimmune Diseases will now skyrocket from both the virus and the vaccine.

    Why? Why would that be expected to happen?

  51. I got these from NYT today:

    Maternity wards are shuttering in Italy. Ghost cities are appearing in China. Hundreds of thousands of properties in Germany have been leveled and the land turned into parks.

    The world’s demographics are changing, pushing toward more deaths than births. Though some countries’ populations continue to grow, fertility rates are falling nearly everywhere else as women have gained more access to education and contraception. Demographers now predict that toward the middle of this century, the global population will enter a sustained decline for the first time. Above, a couple in Acciaroli, Italy.

    A planet with fewer people could ease pressure on resources, slow climate change and reduce burdens for women. But the data also points to changes that are hard to fathom: Fewer workers could upend the ways societies are organized and our ideas about family and nation.

    https://www.nytimes.com/2021/05/22/world/global-population-shrinking.html

    The number of global deaths from the coronavirus is probably two to three times higher than the official data, the World Health Organization said. Above, São Paulo, Brazil.

    Six to eight million people may have died from Covid-19 since the start of the pandemic, compared with 3.4 million deaths recorded in countries’ official reporting.

    https://www.nytimes.com/live/2021/05/21/world/covid-vaccine-coronavirus-mask

  52. It’s too early to take a victory walk. The notes section of the page you linked to makes it clear that the death numbers themselves are made up.

    Its very likely excess deaths occurred. It is also true that statistical games that are indistinguishable from lying are occurring with this disease. The new CDC guidance makes it close to impossible to get a positive covid test result after vaccination (you must be hospitalized or dead and the cycle threshold must be 28 or less to even attempt to submit a positive result).

    The stats on this disease are simply not true. They have been fake since day one. The Chinese data (which I read on Jan. 14, 2020) had a very clear 10% death rate which in hindsight was utter nonsense.

    I know you like deaths as a metric that can’t be faked but read the notes. Also, at this point, the burden is on people reporting data to prove they are not lying. Modifying death data doesn’t provide that comfort.

  53. MGB says:
    @Hernan Pizzaro del Blanco
    @Steve Sailer

    Hard to admit the lockdowns failed and masks did not reduce the spread of coronavirus.

    There was never justification for shutting down schools and businesses. There is no justification for forcing people to wear masks.

    Replies: @MGB, @Corvinus

    Yes. People didn’t fully comply with the quarantine (the selfish bastards) which resulted in unnecessary deaths, but not as many as if there was no compliance, but the lockdown was so complete that it eradicated the seasonal flu. Or something like that. It’s almost as if a conclusion was created, Frankenstein-like, and now it’s left wandering, moaning in search of data to support itself.

  54. Anonymous[135] • Disclaimer says:
    @lavoisier
    Covid-19 is not a hoax. The response by the government may well be ovverblown, but the potential of this virus to kill a lot of people was always there. In hindsight, the case fatality rate was probably a lot lower than what was predicted at the time of the outbreak given the case fatality rate of MERS and SARS-1--much higher than 1-2%.

    The vaccine development has really changed the equation but we are in uncertain times for sure.

    The vaccines were not without risk as the deaths from vaccination prove. And we do not know what long term side effects may emerge from these vaccines or how long they will provide protection against COVID and its emerging variants.

    The trouble today is that we have gotten so used to expecting the government to lie to us that we have a very hard time knowing what is true and what is not true. Hence the skepticism surrounding the sky is falling scenario sold to us by the government.

    This is a sad situation that has been created by the fact that the government does lie.

    Trust is not easily repaired in such a situation.

    Replies: @Bert, @Anonymous, @Corvinus, @Alden

    but the potential of this virus to kill a lot of people was always there.

    Citation needed.

  55. @lavoisier
    Covid-19 is not a hoax. The response by the government may well be ovverblown, but the potential of this virus to kill a lot of people was always there. In hindsight, the case fatality rate was probably a lot lower than what was predicted at the time of the outbreak given the case fatality rate of MERS and SARS-1--much higher than 1-2%.

    The vaccine development has really changed the equation but we are in uncertain times for sure.

    The vaccines were not without risk as the deaths from vaccination prove. And we do not know what long term side effects may emerge from these vaccines or how long they will provide protection against COVID and its emerging variants.

    The trouble today is that we have gotten so used to expecting the government to lie to us that we have a very hard time knowing what is true and what is not true. Hence the skepticism surrounding the sky is falling scenario sold to us by the government.

    This is a sad situation that has been created by the fact that the government does lie.

    Trust is not easily repaired in such a situation.

    Replies: @Bert, @Anonymous, @Corvinus, @Alden

    “The trouble today is that we have gotten so used to expecting the government to lie to us that we have a very hard time knowing what is true and what is not true. Hence the skepticism surrounding the sky is falling scenario sold to us by the government”

    Yes, officials in our government have lied to us. The problem is that within the past six years, certain groups have ramped up their confirmation bias to the point they have convinced themselves the government and media consistently and repeatedly is lying. It’s a default button now for some to automatically assume anything and everything is other than truthful. As a result, healthy skepticism has been replaced by a Trump induced intellectual sterility.

    • Replies: @SunBakedSuburb
    @Corvinus

    "As a result, healthy skepticism has been replaced by a Trump induced intellectual sterility"

    Not sure if "sterility" is the accurate descriptive for Trump people especially in light of his 1/6 tactical error which gifted more political power to leftist-authoritarians. The state of mind of Trump's people which includes members of my deplorably white family can be best described as pudding-brained.

    How about you and your ilk? Aren't you the least bit skeptical of the liberal-left embrace of a highly-politicized DOJ/FBI which now partially function as a political police for the Democratic Party? The American liberal-left challenged the power of the FBI when Hoover used it as a gestapo to go after those who opposed Establishment overreach. The liberal-left spectrum has been totally hijacked by racist black ladies and men with uteruses; complete mass-delusion on your end. Noxious creatures you and your ilk, totally unlovable; unlike the Trump pudding heads most of whom are salt-of-the-earth types.

    Replies: @anon, @Corvinus

    , @AKAHorace
    @Corvinus


    “The trouble today is that we have gotten so used to expecting the government to lie to us that we have a very hard time knowing what is true and what is not true. Hence the skepticism surrounding the sky is falling scenario sold to us by the government”
     
    The problem is that within the past six years, certain groups have ramped up their confirmation bias to the point they have convinced themselves the government and media consistently and repeatedly is lying.

    I think that a lot of political activity has become LARPing. The left spent the Trump administration play acting that we were in early 1930s Germany, much of the right enjoys pretending that any form of state run public health is the first steps to a scientific dictatorship from a 1950s comic book. This may be because with modern media the ratio of fiction/real life that most people experience has increased. If you binge on Netflix movies or science fiction novels what you read or see onscreen is more of your experience than what actually happens around you.
  56. @Hernan Pizzaro del Blanco
    @Steve Sailer

    Hard to admit the lockdowns failed and masks did not reduce the spread of coronavirus.

    There was never justification for shutting down schools and businesses. There is no justification for forcing people to wear masks.

    Replies: @MGB, @Corvinus

    For public health concerns, yes, the measures were justified.

    • Replies: @Anonymous
    @Corvinus

    How many masks are you wearing btw? Three is now "good form." You want to get a jump on the quad-masking, all the top woke men on campus are doing it

    Replies: @Corvinus

    , @Bill
    @Corvinus

    I'm as doomer as doomer can be, and I'm sure you're wrong.

    The conventional wisdom among public health clowns before covid was that masks and pseudo-lockdowns were ineffective. The effectiveness of these silly measures was simply assumed, in the teeth of the existing evidence, and policy proceeded. Now that we've been through it, the evidence that lockdowns and masking did much of anything is weak to nonexistent.

    If we had done a Chinese-style lockdown plus contact tracing in early February, 2020, maybe we could have stopped it, but what we did instead was retarded. What we did was follow the advice of the public health clowns. Do nothing, they said, all through January, February, and three weeks of March. Then, suddenly, it changed in the third week of March to let's do lame-and-sure-to-fail infection control theater. And, of course, the whole thing was led by Anthony "heterosexual AIDS any minute now" Fauci.

    We are a clown country.

    , @Mr. Anon
    @Corvinus


    For public health concerns, yes, the measures were justified.
     
    They were not justified.

    More importantly, they were not ethical, wise, or legal.

    And - though it hardly needs repeating - you are a stupid, contemptible ass.

    Replies: @Achmed E. Newman

    , @Colin Wright
    @Corvinus

    'For public health concerns, yes, the measures were justified.'

    You have to be impervious to the evidence to make a statement like that. Texas is running a 10% positive test rate, they lift the mask requirement --and their rate falls to 6%.

    Your position is that masks work.

    Replies: @Mark G.

  57. As I’ve been saying for a very long time, the novel coronavirus is neither the end of the world nor nothing. It’s a sizable problem.

    For who/whom is the coronavirus a sizable problem?

    It’s a problem to people who believe that government should powder the bottom of every citizen to make them feel safe forever; no cost to high. It’s a problem for the infirm in care facilities who rely on $8/hr ‘skilled’ nursing performed by impoverished immigrants and native poor who live in multi-generational homes. It’s a problem for government that is hypersensitive to retards bloviating on facebook that there is no regulation too authoritarian if the purported goal is to make people feel safe, a bullshit fungible goal if I ever hesrd one.

    It’s not a problem in sub Saharan Africa. Hardscrabble life breeds resilient immune systems. They let their old people die.

    It’s not a problem for children, who simply don’t die of Covid-19 unless they are very immune suppressed.

    In the US, do we really want local leaders to have the power to shut down our economy and terrify our lesser citizens about a virus that has, since April 2020, been obviously not a danger to the vast majority of the population? With lockdowns and terror being the prima facia reason Trump lost re-electiom? When Democrats obviously (as reported in Time https://time.com/5936036/secret-2020-election-campaign/ ) leveraged the ‘pandemic’ to manipulate our voting traditions in swing states?

    Who/whom were the US response to the pandemic designed to benefit? No one who survived, that’s who. Those who lived through it before before vaccine availability aren’t likely to ever die from it because the hot virus was endemic everywhere and lockdowns/masking didn’t slow it down measurably. We reached herd immunity a couple months back. It’s over. No more spikes.

    “The sizable problem” is not the pandemic, but the incompetent government response driven by sub par individuals holding public health sinecures getting off on their dream pandemic emergency powers. An incompetent government that thinks every america is on facebook and that an idea trending on twitter is tantamount to voter engagement on an issue.

    We’d do well to toss out every politician involved in the botched pandemic response. First to go should be local school board members, followed by county leadership, town councils, etc.

    Or, the US government is lying and SARS-Cov2 is bioweapon, as Ron Unz has suggested, and if we don’t get vaccinated tge viral ticking tome bomb will kill us a few years down the road. Probably that is prophecied in Mayan calendar.

    But what do I know.

    • Agree: Peterike
    • Thanks: Achmed E. Newman
  58. Anon[592] • Disclaimer says:
    @Sub
    @Steve Sailer

    The problem with looking at total deaths is that at the same time Covid was going around, many governments were engaging in policies which could potentially cause a spike in deaths even in the absence of an infectious disease going around, as noted by Achmed in another comment.

    If you want to use this chart to make the point you are trying to make, you need to account for how many of these deaths are due to policy vs how many are due to COVID, which is almost impossible due to the ass-backwards way the CDC is classifying COVID deaths within a 28 day window of infection, something they do not do for any other cause of death.

    Replies: @Steve Sailer, @Anon

    The problem with looking at total deaths is that at the same time Covid was going around, many governments were engaging in policies which could potentially cause a spike in deaths even in the absence of an infectious disease going around

    If that were the case, shouldn’t we expect the curve to be a lot flatter? Elevated, but flat.

  59. @Desiderius

    So, while I’m sure debates about dying-with-covid vs. dying-from-covid are fascinating, they aren’t relevant here.
     
    Homer nods.

    The argument (of which dying-with-covid is only a part) is that the cure was/is (much) worse than the disease due to things like missed cancer screenings and the like. That would also produce the same excess deaths as the not-just-the-flu theory.

    The truth is probably somewhere in the middle shaded toward the bad cure side.

    Replies: @Jack D, @TomSchmidt

    How do locked-down versus non-locked-down states compare on non-COVID deaths? That should be easy.

    The illogic of lockdowns shown by comparison of the two probably also invalidates your thesis.

    • Replies: @Desiderius
    @TomSchmidt

    My thesis?

    My only thesis is that Steve’s attempted tactical retreat here is too off-brand to take. He’d do better with the usual strategic silence.

    As for stats everyone has their own stats, which is the more fundamental problem.

    , @Jonathan Mason
    @TomSchmidt

    There are many variables.

    Florida is a non lockdown state, but it has a huge number of elderly people, because many people from northern states have moved there to retire.

    Another statistic of interest could be the incidence of obesity in a state. Obesity is also linked with respiratory disease and with diabetes, all of which are risk factors for death from Covid-19.

    One might also want to look at the incidence of high density housing versus low density housing within a state, and the incidence of use of public transportation versus personal car ownership.

    Replies: @Bill

    , @Bill Jones
    @TomSchmidt

    Everything you need to know about Masks and lockdowns is in the charts here.

    https://www.covidchartsquiz.com/

    Replies: @TomSchmidt

  60. @Jack D
    @Yawrate

    So far, the mRNA vaccines have proved mostly effective against all the variants. The spike protein can only mutate so much without losing its ability to do what it is supposed to do. The choice of the spike protein as the target of the vaccine was wise for this reason. Let's say you were designing an AI robot to kill poisonous snakes by looking for snakes with fangs. Snake could try to evade the robot by changing their color or appearance but as long as they still had fangs the robots would find them. If the snakes evolved not to have fangs then they wouldn't be dangerous anymore and we wouldn't care anyway.

    If a booster is needed, that's not the end of the world - people get flu shots every year. You could say this is an endless fall vaccination campaign that Big Pharma loves, but no one ever blinked an eye at this necessity. Some vaccines are good for life or for a number of years and others need to be repeated annually - that's just how it is. It's a result of biology, not some plot by Big Pharma. Big Pharma would love to sell you a measles shot every year too but they can't because one shot is sufficient.

    Replies: @Anon, @Yancey Ward, @Buzz Mohawk

    So far, the mRNA vaccines have proved mostly effective against all the variants.

    Which vaccine would you recommend one get? The mRNA or the Johnson & Johnson?

    • Replies: @Jack D
    @Anon

    My personal preference is the Pfizer though Moderna is a close 2nd. J&J would be OK if they gave you 2 doses but the current regimen calls for only one dose. All of the vaccines would be more effective if they increased the time between the 1st and 2nd dose.

  61. @Redman
    Any thoughts on why places like Germany and Sweden had zero or close to zero excess death in 2020?

    My take is that COVID showed us either that the US has a growing population of suboptimal health, or that our aging population is starting to catch up with the Euro countries which have already had pretty annual high death rates for a while. Or maybe both.

    Replies: @TomSchmidt, @Sean, @Mark G.

    Germany is pretty fat for Europe, so it cannot just be the wildly overweight American population. I don’t know about Sweden and obesity.

  62. @Steve Sailer
    @Bill Jones

    Nah, just look at the total number of deaths each week.

    I realize it's hard to admit you were wrong, but it's good for the soul.

    Replies: @Hernan Pizzaro del Blanco, @Desiderius, @Sub, @Citizen of a Silly Country, @Travis, @Mr. Anon, @Anthony Aaron, @Marquis, @anon, @Scott Locklin, @Corvinus

    Before you start your victory dance, Steve, perhaps you should be reminded that you were wrong on the central question concerning Covid.

    For the millionth time, let’s look at what the real question around Covid was. First, nobody but loons claimed that Covid was “just the flu, bro.” It was and is a very nasty virus, though, as you have mentioned not the Black Death.

    The question was and is: How effective are the lockdowns and are their benefits (if any) worth the damage (economic and social) inflicted on the population?

    Given that Sweden had lower deaths per million (yes, I know that its neighbors were even lower) than the United States and the lack of evidence that the lockdowns had much effect at all in slowing the spread of the virus, the answer is clearly that the lockdowns (and the mass authority that the government assumed) were a monumental mistake.

    Covid was tailor-made for the old Steve Sailer. You could have use the numbers and your logic to rip the whole government response to shreds. Instead, well, lets just say that it wasn’t your finest hour.

    • Replies: @Bill
    @Citizen of a Silly Country


    For the millionth time, let’s look at what the real question around Covid was. First, nobody but loons claimed that Covid was “just the flu, bro.” It was and is a very nasty virus, though, as you have mentioned not the Black Death.
     
    That simply isn't true. Anthony Fauci was saying that it was just a bad flu through the third week of March, 2020. The entire public health clownshow was saying it was just a bad flu over roughly the same period. Several eminent members of the public health clownshow, perhaps most prominently Stanford professor and epidemiologist John Ioannidis, claimed that there would be virtually no deaths. He, in particular, maintained this lunatic position for months after it was clearly proved wrong. There were and still are a bunch of floomers, several of whom seemed like sane people to me before, hanging out in isteve land.

    People's memory is astonishingly plastic. There was a mind-boggling 180 which occurred in the third week of March, 2020 in which almost the entire public health clownshow went from "it's just the flu" to "it's the black death." Nobody seems to remember this occurring.

    As to your main point, yes, it seems right that lockdowns (as we did them) and masking were infection control theater and were a bad idea.

    Replies: @Steve Sailer, @Mike1, @Mr. Anon, @Anonymous

  63. If our goal is restoring trust in instititions surely it helps that we are still not allowed to question the 2020 election results, or the fact that it sure was miraculously lucky for the Democrats that the lockdown happened when it did.

  64. @Steve Sailer
    @BB753

    Please explain your contorted logic why that wouldn't be so?

    Replies: @Pop Warner, @Barack Obama's secret Unz account, @BB753

    I believe the logic is something like this: if, in 2019, you’d run 35+CT PCR tests for the latest rhinovirus on suspected influenza cases instead of testing for influenza, you would have had yourself a rhinovirus pandemic and a mysteriously vanishing flu.

    I’m not sure whether this theory is correct, but I believe that’s the idea being put about. I suppose one way to get an inkling would be to see what proportion of presumed influenza deaths in previous years actually tested negative for influenza.

    • Agree: Yancey Ward, BB753
  65. Will be interesting to see if death rates fall below normal over the next few years because people who normally would have died then are already dead. The future impact on Social Security, Medicare, and Medicaid spending will also be interesting. I can see the headlines already. “Covid’s Silver Lining”

    • Replies: @JimDandy
    @Luke Lea

    And that possibility hasn't been lost on certain conspiracy theorists.

  66. @Achmed E. Newman
    As I wrote to AnotherDad yesterday, I'd done a fairly quick calculation based on the following:

    - All the pages I'd pulled up, from the CDC and others, said they used a baseline (note "line", not "curve") of "normal deaths" from an average of '15 to '19 deaths of Americans. Yeah, but the average age of an American is rising fairly quickly.

    - I pulled up US Census pages that have 5-year age brackets of Americans by age and sex.

    - I pulled up tables of data via Statista that has (unfortunately only 10-year) brackets of death rate by age for various years.

    - Just calculations of 2 5-year brackets together of age groups (from the first table) x death rates of each 10-year bracket of death rates by age gives number of deaths expected in any one of these normal years. (yes, "normal" is hard to break out from "slightly bad flu season", "year after slightly bad flu season", etc.)

    - For the year '19 alone, I'd gotten something like 150,000 additional deaths just due to aging vs. that average '15-'19 average that the CDC and others use. No, that's not most of these excess deaths, but not insignificant either.

    This is nothing groundbreaking or hard - it's just that a '15-'19 baseline for "normal" deaths is significantly lower than a normal one based on how much more aged the population was in '19 alone (much less '20).

    Yes, I need to show my work. I will get on this later today, as I have to go right now and don't want to rush this now. (Gotta round up all the old browser tabs too.) I don't blog on Sundays, but tomorrow I'll put up a post on Peak Stupidity.

    Replies: @theMann, @Bill, @Barack Obama's secret Unz account, @Mr Mox, @Turtlelamp

    Surely the fact that we have to spend time crunching the numbers to figure out whether a pandemic actually even happened is evidence that, whatever happened, it wasn’t much.

    Australia had +6.8% mortality in 2019: nobody noticed.

  67. You are deliberately? confusing total “excess” deaths with covid deaths. There has been an explosion of overdose deaths and who knows how many alcohol related. For the first time I can recall I knew one OD and two drank themselves to death. Many of my acquaintance admit to avoiding going to Hospitals and my GP tells me he’s seeing less than half his normal load.
    People are dying because of the policies of the State.
    A good illustration of the depth of stupidity of the covid true believers can be seen here
    https://tomwoods.com/covid/

    • Replies: @Anonymous
    @Bill Jones


    People are dying because of the policies of the State.
     
    Why the two big curves then on the graph?
  68. @Simon Tugmutton
    There were no excess deaths in the UK in 2020.

    An enterprising fellow has found a way to bypass the lies spewed out by the government: he issued freedom of information requests to local councils, asking how many burials and cremations they had logged from 2015-20 inclusive. Not all the councils discharged their statutory duty to respond, probably because they were aware of the implications of the request and were filling their underpants in consequence. The responses so far are to be found here:

    https://www.whatdotheyknow.com/user/nick_milner

    In the period covered, the number of burials and cremations in 2020 was only slightly above the average. Indeed, 2017 was much worse.

    I imagine that much the same applies in the U.S. and many other countries.

    The number of 'Covid-19' deaths in the UK was inflated by (1) fraudulent use of high-cycle PCR tests (which are anyway not to be used for diagnostic purposes), (2) conflating deaths 'with' Covid with deaths 'from' Covid, (3) changing the rules so that only one doctor, not two, needed to sign a death certificate, (4) allowing doctors to diagnose Covid without even seeing the patient, (5) fraudulently ascribing any death from a respiratory complaint to Covid, and (6) wholesale falsification of published central government statistics.

    Meanwhile, mass murder is going on with the so-called vaccinations. This percentage of fatal adverse reactions, never mind all the others, would have seen any other experimental drug rapidly pulled from the market, Emergency Use Approval or not. And of course, in this case there is no 'Emergency' at all.

    https://yellowcard.ukcolumn.org/yellow-card-reports

    Then we have the strong possibility of pathogenic priming in those credulous enough to have allowed themselves to be experimented on. The next flu season might well be interesting.

    Replies: @Barack Obama's secret Unz account, @Hippopotamusdrome

    In the period covered, the number of burials and cremations in 2020 was only slightly above the average.

    There’s only one explanation: hundreds of thousands of unburied corpses must be lining the streets

    • Replies: @Screwtape
    @Barack Obama's secret Unz account

    I’ve seen them. Its called Denver.

  69. Anonymous[401] • Disclaimer says:
    @Corvinus
    @Hernan Pizzaro del Blanco

    For public health concerns, yes, the measures were justified.

    Replies: @Anonymous, @Bill, @Mr. Anon, @Colin Wright

    How many masks are you wearing btw? Three is now “good form.” You want to get a jump on the quad-masking, all the top woke men on campus are doing it

    • Replies: @Corvinus
    @Anonymous

    I prefer a ski mask. That way if I get arrested at the latest Antifa rally I won’t get charged with non-compliance.

  70. Sean says:
    @Redman
    Any thoughts on why places like Germany and Sweden had zero or close to zero excess death in 2020?

    My take is that COVID showed us either that the US has a growing population of suboptimal health, or that our aging population is starting to catch up with the Euro countries which have already had pretty annual high death rates for a while. Or maybe both.

    Replies: @TomSchmidt, @Sean, @Mark G.

    https://press.princeton.edu/books/hardcover/9780691190785/deaths-of-despair-and-the-future-of-capitalism

    For the white working class, today’s America has become a land of broken families and few prospects. As the college educated become healthier and wealthier, adults without a degree are literally dying from pain and despair. […] In this critically important book, Case and Deaton tie the crisis to the weakening position of labor, the growing power of corporations, and, above all, to a rapacious health-care sector that redistributes working-class wages into the pockets of the wealthy. Capitalism, which over two centuries lifted countless people out of poverty, is now destroying the lives of blue-collar America.

    Germany has good earning jobs in manufacturing without excess hours of work, a peculiar culture of wellness, and a fantastic health service. I made some comments about it at the begining of the pandemic.

    • Replies: @Thoughts
    @Sean

    Germany is pretty impoverished.

    I've been to Germany recently, don't know where I was as I wasn't driving, but the decrepitness of everything I saw was a bit surprising.

    Germans are fat, their wages are low, and their houses and smaller cities look like sh*t. Plenty of Mexicans abound...I mean Turks...

    Germany resembles Echo Park more than anything else. You'll occasionally see a hot blond teen near an H&M. Occasionally. Very occasionally.

    Replies: @but an humble craftsman, @Sean, @China Japan and Korea Bromance of Three Kingdoms

  71. anonymous[357] • Disclaimer says:

    Some deaths are down … others …

    Bookmark and follow our interactive #Mpls homicide map here: https://t.co/THpISKoDHbIncidents are updated as new info becomes available.We are now over double the number of homicides from the same period last year…— CrimeWatchMpls (@CrimeWatchMpls) May 23, 2021

  72. @Shouting Thomas
    The pandemic was a non-event in Ulster County, NY, where I live.

    258 deaths in a population of 180,000. That’s 14/100ths of one percent. The survival rate among the 15,000 infected was 99.8%.

    Of those 258 deaths, I’m assuming half were among the elderly sick who hadn’t long to live in any event.

    The state of NY shut down Ulster County for 14 months and imprisoned me in my house over this.

    Replies: @Yancey Ward

    Thomas,

    I have been trying to reach out to you for a week now on your blog. If you aren’t interested, just let me know here.

  73. @They Drew First Blood
    Trannies do it better.
    Under the heading Limitations

    "For example, in Pennsylvania, reporting lags are currently much longer than they have been in past years, and death counts for 2020 are therefore underestimated."
     

    Replies: @Dmon

    They couldn’t report your death until after they’d counted your vote.

    • LOL: Yancey Ward
  74. @Steve Sailer
    @Sub

    Sorry, but this isn't a graph of covid deaths, it's a graph of all deaths.

    Replies: @TomSchmidt, @JimDandy, @Thoughts

    This is an interesting post, Steve, and I agree with this:

    “the novel coronavirus is neither the end of the world nor nothing. It’s a sizable problem.”

    with the only point of contention being how “sizable” of a problem.

    The CDC (etc.) is saying that 2/3 of the excess deaths were caused by Covid. Does this mean that there were a sizable number of excess non-Covid deaths? If so, why? And how arbitrary/political/debatable is the “2/3” figure?

    I saw that about 90 percent of the Covid dead were people over 60, and something like 80 percent were over 80. The media and politicians pushed the narrative that “Covid does not discriminate” to the point where lots of smart people thought that Covid was a serious threat to healthy people under 60 years old. It wasn’t, but people who said as much were characterized as loons.

    And I think you make a very interesting point here:

    It could be that total deaths will therefore drop below average in the near future due to the people who would die then having already died due to the virus.

    Bottom line for me is the fact that, as you said, coronavirus isn’t the end of the world–but our leaders and media forced us all to live like it is.

  75. @Luke Lea
    Will be interesting to see if death rates fall below normal over the next few years because people who normally would have died then are already dead. The future impact on Social Security, Medicare, and Medicaid spending will also be interesting. I can see the headlines already. "Covid's Silver Lining"

    Replies: @JimDandy

    And that possibility hasn’t been lost on certain conspiracy theorists.

  76. @Steve Sailer
    @Sub

    Sorry, but this isn't a graph of covid deaths, it's a graph of all deaths.

    Replies: @TomSchmidt, @JimDandy, @Thoughts

    I know a woman who was an anorexic in her late teens who has lost a ton of weight over the last year of Covid to the point where her jaw could cut glass

    How many excess deaths are people being pushed over the edge by government policies and simple fearmongering stress?

    I think we have to call bull on Covid to save lives.

    You know how Scott Adams says Fauci wore the mask to overreact in order to make people more likely to wear masks?

    Well we have to do the same thing…Call Covid bull to drag people back to normalcy to save lives.

    I also think once they start giving out third vaccine shots your little joke of ‘We’ll all be dead because of the vax’ won’t be such a joke anymore.

    This isn’t about truth, it’s about sanity. I don’t care about truth anymore. I care about sanity.

  77. @Desiderius
    @Jack D

    Look, Jack, I drove myself to an ER while blacking out due to a Systolic north of 200 and swerved off the road twice on the way there. Was lucky to make it. I did that because that was the only place where there were people who could save my life.

    If people avoiding hospitals doesn't spike deaths then we've got bigger problems than COVID. Don't piss on my leg and tell me it's raining.

    Replies: @Jack D, @Art Deco

    Right, but you did in fact go to the hospital. People who are having heart attacks or strokes and who don’t call the ambulance (which you should have BTW) deserve to be Darwin Award winners. Maybe there were a few of these but as I said before, excess deaths tracked Covid outbreaks EXACTLY, city by city – this can’t be due to health care avoidance which would have been more or less the same everywhere.

    • Replies: @Desiderius
    @Jack D

    That... isn't in Steve's graph.

    , @Mr. Anon
    @Jack D


    Maybe there were a few of these but as I said before, excess deaths tracked Covid outbreaks EXACTLY, city by city...
     
    Lockdown severity and news coverage tracked COVID outbreaks too.
    , @Wielgus
    @Jack D

    Darwin Award might be too strong - people who went to hospital, sometimes for something else, seem to have contracted Covid there, in a number of cases.

    Replies: @Mr. Anon

  78. @PiltdownMan
    Perhaps it won't be an epidemic in the United States after now, especially if about 65- 70% of the population ends up getting vaccinated by Labor Day, as seems entirely likely by this stage, but that graph also seems to show that this is a disease that peaks in wintertime conditions, with everyone shut up together indoors a lot. So, herd immunity or not, there will probably a modest uptick in cases come November and December, but not in the way we've seen in the last year, especially last winter.

    I expect many of the Covid cases we'll experience will be from the 70 million or so foreigners who visit here every year, and who, by and large, are not vaccinated, and won't likely be mostly vaccinated within a year.

    Replies: @Jack D

    I expect many of the Covid cases we’ll experience will be from the 70 million or so foreigners who visit here every year, and who, by and large, are not vaccinated, and won’t likely be mostly vaccinated within a year.

    Putting aside the people who just stroll in across the Mexican border, I assume that once foreign travel resumes, foreign visitors will be required to be vaccinated and/or to screen negative for Covid in order to be exempt from quarantine – that’s how they are doing it in Europe. I’m sure there will be some fraud/non-compliance but most visitors will comply.

    • Replies: @Achmed E. Newman
    @Jack D

    But, of course. You can't make up face vaccine passports like you can regular ones (or have the corrupt immigration man let you in, so you can get on the bus to go to indentured servitude at the China King Buffet). You act like we have a serious country here.

    What if, not counting those millions that come across the southern border, 95% comply? I'm guessing that the good Doctor Fauci wouldn't be happy with only 95% of the Flu Manchu germs being caught by Corvinus's quadro-diaper.

  79. @TomSchmidt
    @Desiderius

    How do locked-down versus non-locked-down states compare on non-COVID deaths? That should be easy.

    The illogic of lockdowns shown by comparison of the two probably also invalidates your thesis.

    Replies: @Desiderius, @Jonathan Mason, @Bill Jones

    My thesis?

    My only thesis is that Steve’s attempted tactical retreat here is too off-brand to take. He’d do better with the usual strategic silence.

    As for stats everyone has their own stats, which is the more fundamental problem.

  80. @Jack D
    @Desiderius

    I think that the "missed cancer screenings" hypothesis could be pretty easily refuted - you would expect these excess deaths to occur pretty evenly in every place and at every time that had similar lockdown regimes. But if you look at actual excess deaths, these shot up in perfect correlation with reported outbreaks in each state.

    TBH, cancer screenings are not all that effective (although they are very profitable for doctors). There aren't that many kinds of cancer that will kill you within a year if they are not detected early but if they are your life will be saved. If it was really like that, women should be getting mammograms every month instead of annually. Maybe if we stopped all cancer screenings forever it would be bad but a one year pause in screenings (not that there was ever a complete pause) is not going to have a big effect - the tumor that wasn't found on last year's (missed) mammogram will be detected in this year's mammogram.

    Replies: @Desiderius, @Anonymous, @Art Deco, @Barack Obama's secret Unz account

    TBH, cancer screenings are not all that effective

    They’re hardly done for anything other than breast cancer, prostate cancer, cervical cancer, and colon cancer. For the last, they’re only done for 1st and 2d degree relatives of people who’ve had it.

    The one type of cancer that’s a killer due to insidious metastases is ovarian cancer, but they never seemed to have developed a screen for it.

  81. but that graph also seems to show that this is a disease that peaks in wintertime conditions, with everyone shut up together indoors a lot.

    North of a certain latitude. In places like Texas, there’s a peak in July as people are shut up indoors in air conditioning.

    I suspect the modest variants will generate an annual trade in booster shots.

    We have reason to believe that the virus is engineered (see David Baltimore’s remarks). We also have reason to suspect that it was engineered to attack non-Orientals. What we really do not know is whether this was a lab leak or a dry run.

    • Replies: @Ben Kurtz
    @Art Deco

    Florida, too, had no initial surge in March / April 2020 when New York and many northern states did, even though March is a pretty popular time for New Yorkers to fly back and forth to Florida and seed the state. But Florida did see a somewhat noticable first surge in July 2020, at the peak of a/c season (though not nearly as bad as NYC). I attribute that to people crowding indoors during the unbearable Florida summer heat.

    By adopting non-insane nursing home policies states like Florida manged to keep the hospital cases and fatalities down to reasonable levels, which provided sane leaders like Gov. DeSantis extra cover to reject the insanities of Orthodox Fauciism. My Florida-heavy real estate portfolio is ever grateful for that.

  82. Did the increases in opioid ODs and murders balance out (presumably) lower automobile fatalities from fewer miles driven and less drinking in public? Or was there more reckless driving because the roads were less crowded and young men were bored?

  83. @Desiderius
    @Jack D

    Look, Jack, I drove myself to an ER while blacking out due to a Systolic north of 200 and swerved off the road twice on the way there. Was lucky to make it. I did that because that was the only place where there were people who could save my life.

    If people avoiding hospitals doesn't spike deaths then we've got bigger problems than COVID. Don't piss on my leg and tell me it's raining.

    Replies: @Jack D, @Art Deco

    Look, Jack, I drove myself to an ER while blacking out due to a Systolic north of 200 and swerved off the road twice on the way there. Was lucky to make it. I did that because that was the only place where there were people who could save my life.

    Why not call an ambulance? Or at least a cab?

    • Replies: @Desiderius
    @Art Deco

    Should have. Cab would be too slow. Ambulance made it in three minutes when my wife passed out (low blood sugar) before giving birth. If I'd known they were that good I'd have called. Then again, didn't know I'd black out until I was almost to the hospital.

    Point being a lot of empty ERs and beds around here over the last year plus.

  84. @Jack D
    @Desiderius

    I think that the "missed cancer screenings" hypothesis could be pretty easily refuted - you would expect these excess deaths to occur pretty evenly in every place and at every time that had similar lockdown regimes. But if you look at actual excess deaths, these shot up in perfect correlation with reported outbreaks in each state.

    TBH, cancer screenings are not all that effective (although they are very profitable for doctors). There aren't that many kinds of cancer that will kill you within a year if they are not detected early but if they are your life will be saved. If it was really like that, women should be getting mammograms every month instead of annually. Maybe if we stopped all cancer screenings forever it would be bad but a one year pause in screenings (not that there was ever a complete pause) is not going to have a big effect - the tumor that wasn't found on last year's (missed) mammogram will be detected in this year's mammogram.

    Replies: @Desiderius, @Anonymous, @Art Deco, @Barack Obama's secret Unz account

    Firstly, look at Steve’s graph: excess deaths are above baseline from pandemic start, even outside of those “waves”; and the third wave is bigger than the first two, which is weird. People should be more immune after a year, not less, so what was killing everybody?

    I think you’re loading the dice a little with breast cancer: it’s true many of those screenings are a waste of time, and there’s an argument to be made that many mastectomies are unnecessary, only being performed because something benign gets picked up by the screening, and the doctor decides to err on the side of caution. (For the doctor, that is: I don’t wanna get sued, and anyway, it’s not my tits getting chopped off… Bonus: you get to refer the chick to your mate the plastic surgeon for cosmetic implants, and he repays you by letting you use one of his guest passes at the country club.)

    But there are other fast-acting cancers that might’ve been caught by routine screening, but whose symptoms might not have become apparent until it was too late: some prostate cancers, for instance. And what about that persistent indigestion? Or those headaches you’ve been getting… it’s probably nothing… Maybe you’d double-check with your doctor, but there’s no call to be a hypochondriac while there’s a pandemic. The man’s probably swamped!

    Then there’s all the heart problems and diabetes and various other weird diseases that might’ve been picked up early – including something as simple as obesity, which, although hardly invisible, nonetheless might take medical intervention to fix.

    “Missed cancer screenings” is really better expressed as “Withdrawal from the medical system”.

    Presumably, the medical system is doing something to dampen mortality, right? And it’s undeniable that interactions with doctors declined in 2020. So either the mass withdrawal from the medical system would cause mortality to rise, or doctors weren’t actually holding it down in the first place.

    Obviously the most serious and obviously life-threatening medical problems were more likely to be attended to in spite of the broader withdrawal trend. But the point stands; even the New York Times concedes it.

  85. Why not post the raw numbers of excess deaths above the norm?

  86. In the graphic, the blue lines represent the “Predicted number of deaths from all causes” – predicted when, and how, and by whom?

  87. @Redman
    Any thoughts on why places like Germany and Sweden had zero or close to zero excess death in 2020?

    My take is that COVID showed us either that the US has a growing population of suboptimal health, or that our aging population is starting to catch up with the Euro countries which have already had pretty annual high death rates for a while. Or maybe both.

    Replies: @TomSchmidt, @Sean, @Mark G.

    Any thoughts on why places like Germany and Sweden had zero or close to zero excess death in 2020?

    After a initial blunder of letting returning travelers back into Sweden without quarantining them, the Swedish authorities did a pretty good job. Sweden was unfortunate that they have a later holiday period than some of the other Nordic countries and many Swedes were taking holiday vacations in Europe at the same time the epidemic was sweeping across the continent. There was also an issue with a large number of immigrants working in Swedish nursing homes not following the proper health procedures due to poor language skills, low IQ, and them not caring about a bunch of old Swedish people they weren’t related to.

    The Swedish authorities focused on protecting the elderly rather than long harsh business lockdowns and this was probably the best strategy, as they ended up not having high numbers of excess deaths and their economy contracted less than the EU average. Florida here in the U.S. also followed a shield the elderly strategy and, adjusted for age distribution, did about as well as California with its extensive lockdown measures. The poster child for a not protect the elderly strategy was Cuomo with his injection of COVID patients into nursing homes, resulting in high death numbers in New York.

  88. The upper bound threshold isn’t the only band on a confidence interval, Steve. You really need to find a chart with or create one with both bands. Why is it everyone shows only the upper 95% confidence band?

  89. @Art Deco
    but that graph also seems to show that this is a disease that peaks in wintertime conditions, with everyone shut up together indoors a lot.

    North of a certain latitude. In places like Texas, there's a peak in July as people are shut up indoors in air conditioning.

    I suspect the modest variants will generate an annual trade in booster shots.


    We have reason to believe that the virus is engineered (see David Baltimore's remarks). We also have reason to suspect that it was engineered to attack non-Orientals. What we really do not know is whether this was a lab leak or a dry run.

    Replies: @Ben Kurtz

    Florida, too, had no initial surge in March / April 2020 when New York and many northern states did, even though March is a pretty popular time for New Yorkers to fly back and forth to Florida and seed the state. But Florida did see a somewhat noticable first surge in July 2020, at the peak of a/c season (though not nearly as bad as NYC). I attribute that to people crowding indoors during the unbearable Florida summer heat.

    By adopting non-insane nursing home policies states like Florida manged to keep the hospital cases and fatalities down to reasonable levels, which provided sane leaders like Gov. DeSantis extra cover to reject the insanities of Orthodox Fauciism. My Florida-heavy real estate portfolio is ever grateful for that.

    • Agree: Desiderius, S. Anonyia
  90. “(There have been practically zero flu deaths in 2021 so far, which has helped)”

    According to Zerohedge the CDC’s method of COVID data presentation has been thus

    “False-positive tests. The unreliable PCR test can be manipulated into reporting a high number of false-positives by altering the cycle threshold (CT value)”

    “Inflated case-count. The incredibly broad definition of ‘Covid case’ … lists anyone who receives a positive test as a ‘Covid 19 case’ even if they never experienced any symptoms.”

    The CDC and NIH have politicized the COVID 19 pandemic from day one. An aspect of this deceit has been the funding of gain-of-function research on the virus at the Wuhan Lab by Drs. Fauci and Collins despite objection from the Obama Administration. Any numbers on flu deaths coming from CDC and NIH need to be viewed through a skeptical lens.

  91. I’ve long believed the winter peak for flu and colds is caused by low indoor humidity from heating drying out mucus membranes. But I’ve no idea what goes on where they seldom need heat.

  92. @Achmed E. Newman
    As I wrote to AnotherDad yesterday, I'd done a fairly quick calculation based on the following:

    - All the pages I'd pulled up, from the CDC and others, said they used a baseline (note "line", not "curve") of "normal deaths" from an average of '15 to '19 deaths of Americans. Yeah, but the average age of an American is rising fairly quickly.

    - I pulled up US Census pages that have 5-year age brackets of Americans by age and sex.

    - I pulled up tables of data via Statista that has (unfortunately only 10-year) brackets of death rate by age for various years.

    - Just calculations of 2 5-year brackets together of age groups (from the first table) x death rates of each 10-year bracket of death rates by age gives number of deaths expected in any one of these normal years. (yes, "normal" is hard to break out from "slightly bad flu season", "year after slightly bad flu season", etc.)

    - For the year '19 alone, I'd gotten something like 150,000 additional deaths just due to aging vs. that average '15-'19 average that the CDC and others use. No, that's not most of these excess deaths, but not insignificant either.

    This is nothing groundbreaking or hard - it's just that a '15-'19 baseline for "normal" deaths is significantly lower than a normal one based on how much more aged the population was in '19 alone (much less '20).

    Yes, I need to show my work. I will get on this later today, as I have to go right now and don't want to rush this now. (Gotta round up all the old browser tabs too.) I don't blog on Sundays, but tomorrow I'll put up a post on Peak Stupidity.

    Replies: @theMann, @Bill, @Barack Obama's secret Unz account, @Mr Mox, @Turtlelamp

    This is nothing groundbreaking or hard – it’s just that a ’15-’19 baseline for “normal” deaths is significantly lower than a normal one based on how much more aged the population was in ’19 alone (much less ’20).

    Good catch, Achmed! From 1940 to 1950 the yearly number of births in the US rose from 2.5 to 3.6 mil before stabilizing around 4 mil in 1954. Using the ‘last five years average’ will underestimate the true numbers for several years to come.

    • Thanks: Triteleia Laxa
  93. @curtis dunkel
    I too have relied upon total excess deaths as best indicator. That said, it has always appeared that risk is spread very unevenly across demographic groups and that, therefore, recommendations should be tailored to your risk category.

    For example, there seems to be little risk for those under 25 and I think it is fair to say very little risk for those who are healthy and young (see link for age excess death breakdown).

    https://www.cdc.gov/nchs/nvss/vsrr/covid19/excess_deaths.htm

    Based on these data, it seems that young people should forgo the vaccine. Is this a valid conclusion?

    Replies: @Chrisnonymous, @Ben Kurtz, @Achmed E. Newman

    My judgement is that people under 40 who are in good health and not in regular contact with old or sick folks are really in a take-it-or-leave-it situation. If they want the vaccine they should take it; if they don’t, fine — and as a society we should not be implementing any policies to try to coerce them into it. Florida is exactly right to ban vaccine passport schemes, even voluntary ones in privately owned establishments.

    • Replies: @Jonathan Mason
    @Ben Kurtz

    Florida can do what it wants, but Florida residents will not find it any easier to travel internationally without documented proof of vaccine status and/or negative tests, and it may be harder.

  94. If you have an “auto approval” list can you put me on it. My comments don’t get approved for a long time. Others have conversations back and forward before my comment is moderated.

  95. @Art Deco
    @Desiderius

    Look, Jack, I drove myself to an ER while blacking out due to a Systolic north of 200 and swerved off the road twice on the way there. Was lucky to make it. I did that because that was the only place where there were people who could save my life.

    Why not call an ambulance? Or at least a cab?

    Replies: @Desiderius

    Should have. Cab would be too slow. Ambulance made it in three minutes when my wife passed out (low blood sugar) before giving birth. If I’d known they were that good I’d have called. Then again, didn’t know I’d black out until I was almost to the hospital.

    Point being a lot of empty ERs and beds around here over the last year plus.

  96. @Jack D
    @Yawrate

    So far, the mRNA vaccines have proved mostly effective against all the variants. The spike protein can only mutate so much without losing its ability to do what it is supposed to do. The choice of the spike protein as the target of the vaccine was wise for this reason. Let's say you were designing an AI robot to kill poisonous snakes by looking for snakes with fangs. Snake could try to evade the robot by changing their color or appearance but as long as they still had fangs the robots would find them. If the snakes evolved not to have fangs then they wouldn't be dangerous anymore and we wouldn't care anyway.

    If a booster is needed, that's not the end of the world - people get flu shots every year. You could say this is an endless fall vaccination campaign that Big Pharma loves, but no one ever blinked an eye at this necessity. Some vaccines are good for life or for a number of years and others need to be repeated annually - that's just how it is. It's a result of biology, not some plot by Big Pharma. Big Pharma would love to sell you a measles shot every year too but they can't because one shot is sufficient.

    Replies: @Anon, @Yancey Ward, @Buzz Mohawk

    Mutations that survive don’t work like you seem to believe, Jack.

  97. @Jack D
    @Yawrate

    So far, the mRNA vaccines have proved mostly effective against all the variants. The spike protein can only mutate so much without losing its ability to do what it is supposed to do. The choice of the spike protein as the target of the vaccine was wise for this reason. Let's say you were designing an AI robot to kill poisonous snakes by looking for snakes with fangs. Snake could try to evade the robot by changing their color or appearance but as long as they still had fangs the robots would find them. If the snakes evolved not to have fangs then they wouldn't be dangerous anymore and we wouldn't care anyway.

    If a booster is needed, that's not the end of the world - people get flu shots every year. You could say this is an endless fall vaccination campaign that Big Pharma loves, but no one ever blinked an eye at this necessity. Some vaccines are good for life or for a number of years and others need to be repeated annually - that's just how it is. It's a result of biology, not some plot by Big Pharma. Big Pharma would love to sell you a measles shot every year too but they can't because one shot is sufficient.

    Replies: @Anon, @Yancey Ward, @Buzz Mohawk

    If a booster is needed, that’s not the end of the world – people get flu shots every year.

    My question to you, Jack, is why do you get a flu shot every year?

    As I’ve said, I have never had a flu shot, and I can’t remember the last time I had the flu, bro.

    What I do remember is when the flu shot was invented. I was a younger man then, and in my naive way, I thought there would be one shot for the flu and that was it. I didn’t bother to get one, but lo-and-behold, there has been a campaign every year since to get a flu shot, and there has been a new flu shot every year.

    My father used to bug me about it. “Did you get a flu shot?” No Dad. “Why not? You really should get the flu shot.” And on and on for years.

    Back to my question. If the flu, bro, is not that lethal, then why does everybody, like you I assume, get a flu shot? Is it because you just hate getting sick? I understand that, but that’s an inconvenience. Logic again: If COVID-19 is even worse than the flu, then the flu is mild in comparison. (I am willing to admit that.) Okay, so, why do you get a stupid shot every year for a mild illness? (An illness I haven’t had in many years, without a shot, BTW.)

    Look, all of this is well-intended, at least among people like you and Steve Sailer, but isn’t it usually better to let nature do a job man isn’t cut out for? I don’t know it, but I suspect that my own immune system is naturally stronger and far superior to yours now, simply because it has been successfully killing invaders for years and years without outside aid. If we had let SARS-CoV-2 run its course, there would be more people like me and humans would be stronger, but no, now we have a world full of innoculated sheep who will need a shot every year. Great acomplishment!

    NOTE: I may not know what I am talking about. LOL Have a nice day and stay healthy.

    • Replies: @Jonathan Mason
    @Buzz Mohawk


    As I’ve said, I have never had a flu shot, and I can’t remember the last time I had the flu, bro.
     
    Are you on Medicare? Do you work in the healthcare industry?

    Replies: @Buzz Mohawk

    , @Jack D
    @Buzz Mohawk

    I don't know whether you have had the flu fo' real (rather than a "flu like illness"). The flu is no joke. Aside from killing the elderly, it really knocks younger people on their ass. For weeks afterward your strength is sapped. It's not fun at all. So why would you want this if it can be prevented by a quick, simple shot? For me, it's a no brainer. BTW "that which does not kill you makes you stronger" is just not true.

    Replies: @Buzz Mohawk

    , @Wilkey
    @Buzz Mohawk


    Okay, so, why do you get a stupid shot every year for a mild illness? An illness I haven’t had in many years, without a shot, BTW.
     
    Just because an illness doesn’t kill you or have any (known) long term health consequences doesn’t mean it isn’t an enormous drain. It’s bad enough when it’s just you with the flu. When it’s you, and your wife, and any or all of your three children it’s even worse. Or maybe an elderly mother or in-law. Or perhaps a brother already battling cancer.

    The flu is a huge inconvenience, saps your strength for weeks, results in lost income from work, throws you off your exercise regimen, etc. About the only upside to getting the flu is it gives me a good excuse to turn on the out-of-office reply in email, lay on the couch in the man cave for a day or three and binge watch whole seasons of TV shows and post lots of pointless comments here on iSteve that no one will read. And that’s only if my wife didn’t get it, too.

    Replies: @Mr. Anon

    , @Western
    @Buzz Mohawk

    I got the Covid vaccine because my dad kept bugging me about it. I only started to get the flu shot for the same reason. The last time I could even have been sick enough to maybe have the flu was 30 years ago.

    It's amazing how people will allow strangers to inject them with something. I had a cat scan 15 years ago and I showed up and complete strangers inject me with something and I just let them. It is kind of weird when you think about it. The same goes for food. We just let strangers in another room out of our sight make our food and we just eat it without thinking about it.

    I didn't have any major side effects from the covid shot so far after the first dose but I regret getting it. I wouldn't do it if I could go back. I only did it because my dad bugged me and the propaganda in the media.

    Replies: @Anon

  98. @TomSchmidt
    @Desiderius

    How do locked-down versus non-locked-down states compare on non-COVID deaths? That should be easy.

    The illogic of lockdowns shown by comparison of the two probably also invalidates your thesis.

    Replies: @Desiderius, @Jonathan Mason, @Bill Jones

    There are many variables.

    Florida is a non lockdown state, but it has a huge number of elderly people, because many people from northern states have moved there to retire.

    Another statistic of interest could be the incidence of obesity in a state. Obesity is also linked with respiratory disease and with diabetes, all of which are risk factors for death from Covid-19.

    One might also want to look at the incidence of high density housing versus low density housing within a state, and the incidence of use of public transportation versus personal car ownership.

    • Replies: @Bill
    @Jonathan Mason

    Yes, Florida is a good illustration of the fact that lockdown theater is ineffective. Florida did well on covid mortality despite being packed to the gills with old people and having no lockdown except briefly at the beginning. It's a disaster for buffoons like Anthony Fauci.

  99. @Buzz Mohawk
    @Jack D


    If a booster is needed, that’s not the end of the world – people get flu shots every year.
     
    My question to you, Jack, is why do you get a flu shot every year?

    As I've said, I have never had a flu shot, and I can't remember the last time I had the flu, bro.

    What I do remember is when the flu shot was invented. I was a younger man then, and in my naive way, I thought there would be one shot for the flu and that was it. I didn't bother to get one, but lo-and-behold, there has been a campaign every year since to get a flu shot, and there has been a new flu shot every year.

    My father used to bug me about it. "Did you get a flu shot?" No Dad. "Why not? You really should get the flu shot." And on and on for years.

    Back to my question. If the flu, bro, is not that lethal, then why does everybody, like you I assume, get a flu shot? Is it because you just hate getting sick? I understand that, but that's an inconvenience. Logic again: If COVID-19 is even worse than the flu, then the flu is mild in comparison. (I am willing to admit that.) Okay, so, why do you get a stupid shot every year for a mild illness? (An illness I haven't had in many years, without a shot, BTW.)

    Look, all of this is well-intended, at least among people like you and Steve Sailer, but isn't it usually better to let nature do a job man isn't cut out for? I don't know it, but I suspect that my own immune system is naturally stronger and far superior to yours now, simply because it has been successfully killing invaders for years and years without outside aid. If we had let SARS-CoV-2 run its course, there would be more people like me and humans would be stronger, but no, now we have a world full of innoculated sheep who will need a shot every year. Great acomplishment!

    NOTE: I may not know what I am talking about. LOL Have a nice day and stay healthy.

    Replies: @Jonathan Mason, @Jack D, @Wilkey, @Western

    As I’ve said, I have never had a flu shot, and I can’t remember the last time I had the flu, bro.

    Are you on Medicare? Do you work in the healthcare industry?

    • Replies: @Buzz Mohawk
    @Jonathan Mason


    Are you on Medicare? Do you work in the healthcare industry?
     
    Uh, no. Why do you ask? I am about as far from Medicare and the health care industry as a man can be, and very happy about the fact.

    Over time, I have learned to respect surgeons and dentists, but to let "doctors" just be. I identify with the former, who I think actually do things, while the latter, unfortunately, mostly parrot whatever they are taught and seldom have done anything for me. (I have benefitted from really good surgeons: hernia, septoplasty, oral surgeon for dental implants. Really good guys all who do real stuff, kind of like engineers for the body. Ordinary "doctors" are what one Yale psychiatrist friend told me they call "LMDs," Local Medical Docs, who know nothing and do nothing.)

    Now now, I know doctors are great and they are there when you need them, so don't get me wrong. I'm just lucky enough not to have ever really needed them. I am also simple-minded enough that I only understand the guys who do real, physical things. LMDs mostly are hocus pocus.

    Replies: @Jonathan Mason

  100. @Corvinus
    @lavoisier

    “The trouble today is that we have gotten so used to expecting the government to lie to us that we have a very hard time knowing what is true and what is not true. Hence the skepticism surrounding the sky is falling scenario sold to us by the government”

    Yes, officials in our government have lied to us. The problem is that within the past six years, certain groups have ramped up their confirmation bias to the point they have convinced themselves the government and media consistently and repeatedly is lying. It’s a default button now for some to automatically assume anything and everything is other than truthful. As a result, healthy skepticism has been replaced by a Trump induced intellectual sterility.

    Replies: @SunBakedSuburb, @AKAHorace

    “As a result, healthy skepticism has been replaced by a Trump induced intellectual sterility”

    Not sure if “sterility” is the accurate descriptive for Trump people especially in light of his 1/6 tactical error which gifted more political power to leftist-authoritarians. The state of mind of Trump’s people which includes members of my deplorably white family can be best described as pudding-brained.

    How about you and your ilk? Aren’t you the least bit skeptical of the liberal-left embrace of a highly-politicized DOJ/FBI which now partially function as a political police for the Democratic Party? The American liberal-left challenged the power of the FBI when Hoover used it as a gestapo to go after those who opposed Establishment overreach. The liberal-left spectrum has been totally hijacked by racist black ladies and men with uteruses; complete mass-delusion on your end. Noxious creatures you and your ilk, totally unlovable; unlike the Trump pudding heads most of whom are salt-of-the-earth types.

    • Replies: @anon
    @SunBakedSuburb

    How about you and your ilk?

    Coronavninus "thinks" what he is paid to. He's merely a stooge. Nothing more.

    , @Corvinus
    @SunBakedSuburb

    “How about you and your ilk? Aren’t you the least bit skeptical of the liberal-left embrace of a highly-politicized DOJ/FBI which now partially function as a political police for the Democratic Party?”

    Except that’s not an accurate description. See, you are only proving my point here.

    “The American liberal-left challenged the power of the FBI when Hoover used it as a gestapo to go after those who opposed Establishment overreach.”

    Indeed.

    “The liberal-left spectrum has been totally hijacked by racist black ladies and men with uteruses; complete mass-delusion on your end.”

    You mean the Coalition of the Left Fringe. We normies are not in lock step, as iSteve and the Alt Right makes it appear.

    “Noxious creatures you and your ilk, totally unlovable; unlike the Trump pudding heads most of whom are salt-of-the-earth types.”

    Your over the top rhetoric once again shows your intellectual sterility. Confirmation bias is your master, hoss.

    Replies: @Clyde

  101. @Ben Kurtz
    @curtis dunkel

    My judgement is that people under 40 who are in good health and not in regular contact with old or sick folks are really in a take-it-or-leave-it situation. If they want the vaccine they should take it; if they don't, fine -- and as a society we should not be implementing any policies to try to coerce them into it. Florida is exactly right to ban vaccine passport schemes, even voluntary ones in privately owned establishments.

    Replies: @Jonathan Mason

    Florida can do what it wants, but Florida residents will not find it any easier to travel internationally without documented proof of vaccine status and/or negative tests, and it may be harder.

  102. @Buzz Mohawk
    @Jack D


    If a booster is needed, that’s not the end of the world – people get flu shots every year.
     
    My question to you, Jack, is why do you get a flu shot every year?

    As I've said, I have never had a flu shot, and I can't remember the last time I had the flu, bro.

    What I do remember is when the flu shot was invented. I was a younger man then, and in my naive way, I thought there would be one shot for the flu and that was it. I didn't bother to get one, but lo-and-behold, there has been a campaign every year since to get a flu shot, and there has been a new flu shot every year.

    My father used to bug me about it. "Did you get a flu shot?" No Dad. "Why not? You really should get the flu shot." And on and on for years.

    Back to my question. If the flu, bro, is not that lethal, then why does everybody, like you I assume, get a flu shot? Is it because you just hate getting sick? I understand that, but that's an inconvenience. Logic again: If COVID-19 is even worse than the flu, then the flu is mild in comparison. (I am willing to admit that.) Okay, so, why do you get a stupid shot every year for a mild illness? (An illness I haven't had in many years, without a shot, BTW.)

    Look, all of this is well-intended, at least among people like you and Steve Sailer, but isn't it usually better to let nature do a job man isn't cut out for? I don't know it, but I suspect that my own immune system is naturally stronger and far superior to yours now, simply because it has been successfully killing invaders for years and years without outside aid. If we had let SARS-CoV-2 run its course, there would be more people like me and humans would be stronger, but no, now we have a world full of innoculated sheep who will need a shot every year. Great acomplishment!

    NOTE: I may not know what I am talking about. LOL Have a nice day and stay healthy.

    Replies: @Jonathan Mason, @Jack D, @Wilkey, @Western

    I don’t know whether you have had the flu fo’ real (rather than a “flu like illness”). The flu is no joke. Aside from killing the elderly, it really knocks younger people on their ass. For weeks afterward your strength is sapped. It’s not fun at all. So why would you want this if it can be prevented by a quick, simple shot? For me, it’s a no brainer. BTW “that which does not kill you makes you stronger” is just not true.

    • Replies: @Buzz Mohawk
    @Jack D


    BTW “that which does not kill you makes you stronger” is just not true.
     
    It is odd to see an intelligent man on an HBD blog write that. You are denying one basis of evolution itself. Even if we leave evolution aside, what is most certainly true is that we weaken ourselves when we rely too much on assistance.

    Hell, this goes to socio-political stuff. The very powers that we here object to want nothing more that to make their supporters dependent on them, and you know who all those people are.

    Helplessness and dependency on help is not a good thing, so why did you just write what you wrote?

    Replies: @Jack D, @HA, @Anonymous Jew

  103. @Jonathan Mason
    @Buzz Mohawk


    As I’ve said, I have never had a flu shot, and I can’t remember the last time I had the flu, bro.
     
    Are you on Medicare? Do you work in the healthcare industry?

    Replies: @Buzz Mohawk

    Are you on Medicare? Do you work in the healthcare industry?

    Uh, no. Why do you ask? I am about as far from Medicare and the health care industry as a man can be, and very happy about the fact.

    Over time, I have learned to respect surgeons and dentists, but to let “doctors” just be. I identify with the former, who I think actually do things, while the latter, unfortunately, mostly parrot whatever they are taught and seldom have done anything for me. (I have benefitted from really good surgeons: hernia, septoplasty, oral surgeon for dental implants. Really good guys all who do real stuff, kind of like engineers for the body. Ordinary “doctors” are what one Yale psychiatrist friend told me they call “LMDs,” Local Medical Docs, who know nothing and do nothing.)

    Now now, I know doctors are great and they are there when you need them, so don’t get me wrong. I’m just lucky enough not to have ever really needed them. I am also simple-minded enough that I only understand the guys who do real, physical things. LMDs mostly are hocus pocus.

    • Replies: @Jonathan Mason
    @Buzz Mohawk

    I asked because flu vaccine is routinely offered to all Medicare patients, that is people over the age of 65, and probably the reason that you have not been offered it is that you are below that age.

  104. @Corvinus
    @lavoisier

    “The trouble today is that we have gotten so used to expecting the government to lie to us that we have a very hard time knowing what is true and what is not true. Hence the skepticism surrounding the sky is falling scenario sold to us by the government”

    Yes, officials in our government have lied to us. The problem is that within the past six years, certain groups have ramped up their confirmation bias to the point they have convinced themselves the government and media consistently and repeatedly is lying. It’s a default button now for some to automatically assume anything and everything is other than truthful. As a result, healthy skepticism has been replaced by a Trump induced intellectual sterility.

    Replies: @SunBakedSuburb, @AKAHorace

    “The trouble today is that we have gotten so used to expecting the government to lie to us that we have a very hard time knowing what is true and what is not true. Hence the skepticism surrounding the sky is falling scenario sold to us by the government”

    The problem is that within the past six years, certain groups have ramped up their confirmation bias to the point they have convinced themselves the government and media consistently and repeatedly is lying.

    I think that a lot of political activity has become LARPing. The left spent the Trump administration play acting that we were in early 1930s Germany, much of the right enjoys pretending that any form of state run public health is the first steps to a scientific dictatorship from a 1950s comic book. This may be because with modern media the ratio of fiction/real life that most people experience has increased. If you binge on Netflix movies or science fiction novels what you read or see onscreen is more of your experience than what actually happens around you.

  105. Sailer wants to retreat to his wheelhouse which is comebacks like this. He’ll lose short-term on this one because of where we are in the Strauss-Howe sexual dimorphism cycle but it’s a fight worth having and he’ll prevail in the long run. Most importantly by tempering the minds of his rising replacements like Hanania.

    • Disagree: S. Anonyia
    • Replies: @Desiderius
    @Desiderius

    https://twitter.com/pegobry/status/1397162086237622272?s=20

  106. If this thing was circulating as early as winter 2019 why didn’t we witness any excess deaths until after the lockdowns were implemented in mid-March 2020?

    Many countries around the world, with varying government measures or no lockdowns, experienced no excess deaths compared to previous years. Excess deaths in the US, in terms of years of life lost, were concentrated mostly among younger populations (under 50 years of age) who were not affected by the virus. The elderly who supposedly died of Covid, above 80 years of age, would have died in 2020 anyway, though I believe many residing in nursing homes simply lost the will to live when they were cut off from family and friends.

    So any excess deaths could be attributed to the lockdowns – anxiety and stress, isolation and depression, unemployment and bankruptcies, canceled medical procedures, missed screenings and treatments for cancer, heart disease, diabetes, and suicides, drug overdoses, excess alcohol consumption, lack of exercise and fresh air – and accompanying fear-mongering by media and government propaganda, not from a virus.

    • Agree: Travis, Mr. Anon
    • Replies: @Mr. Anon
    @Alvin


    So any excess deaths could be attributed to the lockdowns – anxiety and stress, isolation and depression, unemployment and bankruptcies, canceled medical procedures, missed screenings and treatments for cancer, heart disease, diabetes, and suicides, drug overdoses, excess alcohol consumption, lack of exercise and fresh air – and accompanying fear-mongering by media and government propaganda, not from a virus.
     
    I don't think that all excess deaths could be attributed to the causes you mention. But I suspect that likely many of them could be. How many? That's a good question. Who is going to answer it? The CDC? Anthony Fauci? Andrew Cuomo or Gretchen Whitmer or Phil Murphy? Nobody in authority is going to want to get into that - into how badly they f**ked things up.
    , @HA
    @Alvin

    "If this thing was circulating as early as winter 2019 why didn’t we witness any excess deaths until after the lockdowns were implemented in mid-March 2020?"

    Because when it comes to contagious diseases, "circulating" is not the same as having enough to skyrocket to where this thing did. Measles has been "circulating" forever. But once measles infects enough people, then it really starts to take off. That's why they use exponential growth to model this stuff.

    "So any excess deaths could be attributed to the lockdowns – anxiety and stress, isolation and depression, unemployment and bankruptcies, canceled medical procedures, missed screenings and treatments for cancer, heart disease, diabetes, and suicides, drug overdoses, excess alcohol consumption, lack of exercise and fresh air..."

    If one is a clueless idiot, one can attribute those deaths however one likes, and there are plenty of examples of that on this thread. But people who have actually tallied up the numbers have noted that suicides actually went DOWN last year. Deaths from elective surgeries likewise went down. Deaths from heart disease went up by only 30K. So somehow your "lack of fresh air" theory is going to have to explain a reduction in suicide alongside some unspecified increase in deaths from "anxiety and stress" or whatever in such a way that it actually explains an extra half million deaths or so. If that's your plan, good luck with it.

    I don't deny that there are plenty of experts here who can brush away whatever doesn't suit their confirmation bias and blow up everything else to explain the extra couple of hundred thousand dead we've seen last year. For the rest of us, who don't walk into a plane and presume to give the pilot flying tips, and who don't think their Facebook circle of anti-vaxxer co-conspiracy theorists know more about the dangers of vaccinations than a pediatrician, it's not very convincing.

    Fauci is no saint, but if the so-called experts around here are the alternative, it's no wonder people seem by and large more willing to listen to him. That being the case, instead of tossing out unsubstantiated guesswork on what MIGHT be going on, take some classes in immunology, and epidemiology -- i.e. pay your dues -- and beat the experts at their own game?

    Replies: @Alvin

  107. Or it could be that deaths were well distributed among people with, say, 20 years expected life so that this clearing-the-underbrush effect will be insignificant.

    Yes. But another question will be how many people developed bad health habits (alcoholism, drug abuse, sedentary lifestyles, a fondness for not going to work) during the pandemic, and how much affect that will have on lifespan. I suspect it is not insignificant.

    • Replies: @Thoughts
    @Wilkey

    This.

    Young people in my area are noticeably fatter than a year ago.

    My spouse is noticeably fatter than a year ago.

  108. @Anonymous
    “Or it could well be that covid has nasty long term effects on a non-trivial number of current survivors, who will die of long term effects.

    Or, perhaps, everybody will drop dead from the vaccine.”

    Autoimmune Diseases will now skyrocket from both the virus and the vaccine.

    Replies: @Anonymous, @SunBakedSuburb

    “Autoimmune Diseases will now skyrocket from both the virus and the vaccine”

    Speculation regarding the long-term effect of the mRNA vaccine on natural immunity has been proffered by epidemiologists and practicing physicians not affiliated with public health bureaucrats and the pharmacorp sector. An epidemic of autoimmune disease in the coming years is one of their dreads.

    • Replies: @Anon
    @SunBakedSuburb


    An epidemic of autoimmune disease in the coming years is one of their dreads.
     
    Why would mRNA vaccines lead to autoimmune disease?
  109. @Jack D
    @Buzz Mohawk

    I don't know whether you have had the flu fo' real (rather than a "flu like illness"). The flu is no joke. Aside from killing the elderly, it really knocks younger people on their ass. For weeks afterward your strength is sapped. It's not fun at all. So why would you want this if it can be prevented by a quick, simple shot? For me, it's a no brainer. BTW "that which does not kill you makes you stronger" is just not true.

    Replies: @Buzz Mohawk

    BTW “that which does not kill you makes you stronger” is just not true.

    It is odd to see an intelligent man on an HBD blog write that. You are denying one basis of evolution itself. Even if we leave evolution aside, what is most certainly true is that we weaken ourselves when we rely too much on assistance.

    Hell, this goes to socio-political stuff. The very powers that we here object to want nothing more that to make their supporters dependent on them, and you know who all those people are.

    Helplessness and dependency on help is not a good thing, so why did you just write what you wrote?

    • Replies: @Jack D
    @Buzz Mohawk

    That's not how evolution works. Lots of animals die after having had sex one time and their evolutionary success is based on putting all of their energy into reproducing as many eggs as possible. Evolution is punctuated - it's based as much on luck (a handful of anomalous individuals having the right traits when conditions change) as upon competitive "fitness".

    Lifespans over the last century have doubled due to "artificial" assistance. Letting nature take its course is not a good idea, at least on the individual scale.

    Replies: @Buzz Mohawk, @Art Deco

    , @HA
    @Buzz Mohawk

    "[In denying that “that which does not kill you makes you stronger”] You are denying one basis of evolution itself."

    No. People would like to think that the fact that a bone is in some sense tougher after a break, or that a muscle is stronger after certain kinds of stress, is some kind of universal law, but it isn't. Evolution doesn't make you stronger by not killing you. Bone breaks and muscle tears can be permanent and crippling, and the stings and arrows and hundred small cuts will indeed weaken you permanently. It's the rest of us might well be stronger, as a species, once you eventually die off from all that accumulated weakness and diminished vigor. Though even that's not guaranteed or clear-cut. The way that humans evolved to "defeat" malaria was to have genetic defects proliferate in malaria-prone populations that messed up blood cells so much that even malaria had trouble dealing with it. (Sickle-cell, Tay-Sachs, thalassemia, etc.) And that meant that the heterozygotes of this defect were not so diseased that they died, and just diseased enough to where malaria was less likely to kill them, and so were better off to some degree, but it's hard to argue that anyone is stronger as a result of this poison pill Pyrrhic victory, and that's what sickle cell and Tay-Sachs are, to some extent.

    Evolution doesn't care if you become stronger or not and it's not some grand karma-dispensing tough-love life coach. If it eventually turns the human species into copies of that thing at the end of that "I have no mouth and I must scream" horror story, it's not going to have a problem with that.

    , @Anonymous Jew
    @Buzz Mohawk

    I recall that you get better immunity from a particular strain of flu by being infected by the actual flu itself compared to the vaccine. But it still may make sense to get a flu shot. Even if it won’t kill you and even if the immunity is not as good as getting the actual flu.

    I recall I got a bad flu in my early 20’s when symptoms tend to be the worst because your immune system is at its peak. Sure, I wasn’t going to die, but it was as annoying as heck. If a flu vaccine could eliminate my symptoms - or even if it mostly misses and reduces them by 30% - 50% - then why not? Why effectively lose 2 days of my life? Like any decisions, you weigh the good against the bad. I’ve gotten a flu shot every year since. It’s worth it just to reduce flu symptoms.
    ...

    Back to COVID: I don’t care about excess deaths as that’s behind us and out of our control. What’s relevant is current and future public policy. What can we do besides allow everyone the opportunity to get vaccinated? Only two things seem to work: lockdowns and vaccines. And the vaccine is here. Do we wear masks and stay home for the rest of our lives? Because it’s ether that or we just get back to normal.

    I don’t think there was ever a compelling reason for the lockdown - based on a rational cost-benefit analysis. But now there’s truly no reason. This is madness.

    I recently got my second shot, and it was just so I would have good standing to tell everyone else to bugger off. Outside of the grocery store etc I now refuse to wear a mask in any social situation. If someone demands that I wear a mask for a particular gathering/event I state my principled reason not to and/or leave. I’m vaccinated. That’s all we got. I’m done with this bullish-t.

  110. @Anon
    @Jack D


    So far, the mRNA vaccines have proved mostly effective against all the variants.
     
    Which vaccine would you recommend one get? The mRNA or the Johnson & Johnson?

    Replies: @Jack D

    My personal preference is the Pfizer though Moderna is a close 2nd. J&J would be OK if they gave you 2 doses but the current regimen calls for only one dose. All of the vaccines would be more effective if they increased the time between the 1st and 2nd dose.

  111. @Buzz Mohawk
    @Jack D


    If a booster is needed, that’s not the end of the world – people get flu shots every year.
     
    My question to you, Jack, is why do you get a flu shot every year?

    As I've said, I have never had a flu shot, and I can't remember the last time I had the flu, bro.

    What I do remember is when the flu shot was invented. I was a younger man then, and in my naive way, I thought there would be one shot for the flu and that was it. I didn't bother to get one, but lo-and-behold, there has been a campaign every year since to get a flu shot, and there has been a new flu shot every year.

    My father used to bug me about it. "Did you get a flu shot?" No Dad. "Why not? You really should get the flu shot." And on and on for years.

    Back to my question. If the flu, bro, is not that lethal, then why does everybody, like you I assume, get a flu shot? Is it because you just hate getting sick? I understand that, but that's an inconvenience. Logic again: If COVID-19 is even worse than the flu, then the flu is mild in comparison. (I am willing to admit that.) Okay, so, why do you get a stupid shot every year for a mild illness? (An illness I haven't had in many years, without a shot, BTW.)

    Look, all of this is well-intended, at least among people like you and Steve Sailer, but isn't it usually better to let nature do a job man isn't cut out for? I don't know it, but I suspect that my own immune system is naturally stronger and far superior to yours now, simply because it has been successfully killing invaders for years and years without outside aid. If we had let SARS-CoV-2 run its course, there would be more people like me and humans would be stronger, but no, now we have a world full of innoculated sheep who will need a shot every year. Great acomplishment!

    NOTE: I may not know what I am talking about. LOL Have a nice day and stay healthy.

    Replies: @Jonathan Mason, @Jack D, @Wilkey, @Western

    Okay, so, why do you get a stupid shot every year for a mild illness? An illness I haven’t had in many years, without a shot, BTW.

    Just because an illness doesn’t kill you or have any (known) long term health consequences doesn’t mean it isn’t an enormous drain. It’s bad enough when it’s just you with the flu. When it’s you, and your wife, and any or all of your three children it’s even worse. Or maybe an elderly mother or in-law. Or perhaps a brother already battling cancer.

    The flu is a huge inconvenience, saps your strength for weeks, results in lost income from work, throws you off your exercise regimen, etc. About the only upside to getting the flu is it gives me a good excuse to turn on the out-of-office reply in email, lay on the couch in the man cave for a day or three and binge watch whole seasons of TV shows and post lots of pointless comments here on iSteve that no one will read. And that’s only if my wife didn’t get it, too.

    • Agree: Jack D
    • Replies: @Mr. Anon
    @Wilkey


    The flu is a huge inconvenience, saps your strength for weeks, results in lost income from work, throws you off your exercise regimen, etc.
     
    Gee, sounds a lot like what happens to people under the regime of "health lockdowns", except it doesn't just happen to sick people but to those who are perfectly healthy too.
  112. @Buzz Mohawk
    @Jack D


    BTW “that which does not kill you makes you stronger” is just not true.
     
    It is odd to see an intelligent man on an HBD blog write that. You are denying one basis of evolution itself. Even if we leave evolution aside, what is most certainly true is that we weaken ourselves when we rely too much on assistance.

    Hell, this goes to socio-political stuff. The very powers that we here object to want nothing more that to make their supporters dependent on them, and you know who all those people are.

    Helplessness and dependency on help is not a good thing, so why did you just write what you wrote?

    Replies: @Jack D, @HA, @Anonymous Jew

    That’s not how evolution works. Lots of animals die after having had sex one time and their evolutionary success is based on putting all of their energy into reproducing as many eggs as possible. Evolution is punctuated – it’s based as much on luck (a handful of anomalous individuals having the right traits when conditions change) as upon competitive “fitness”.

    Lifespans over the last century have doubled due to “artificial” assistance. Letting nature take its course is not a good idea, at least on the individual scale.

    • Replies: @Buzz Mohawk
    @Jack D


    Lifespans over the last century have doubled due to “artificial” assistance.
     
    Lifespans over the last century have doubled because more people have enjoyed certain qualities of life formerly available only to the rich.

    Food: Glorious, varied, nutritious food became available in stores, at prices middle-class Americans could afford. My (possibly Askenazic) grandfather sold S&W canned food all over northern California while this great change was happening. He is a hero!

    Working conditions: The humane, 40-hour work week, plus later, government enforced safety requirements (my own father had to put those in place in six factories across America.)

    Medicine: Though I just knocked local doctors here, the quality -- and, again, the availability -- of medical care increased dramatically in the past century, thus helping boost life spans for average people.

    You see, Jack, if you look back, you can find that the top tier of humans always lived longer. What has happened is that modern productivity -- the result, BTW, of people just doing what they do when they are free -- has brought long life to everyone else.

    The rich and powerful always tended to live long. Now we all do. How about that?

    Replies: @S. Anonyia

    , @Art Deco
    @Jack D

    Lifespans over the last century have doubled due to “artificial” assistance.

    Where? In this country ca. 1920, life expectancy at birth was about 60 years.

    And the improvements since the early modern period can be largely attributed to better nutrition and sanitation. The improvements we've experienced in the last 50 years might be attributable to other causes. There you're looking at an additional 8 years of life expectancy at birth and an additional 4 years at age 65, not a doubling.

    Replies: @Jonathan Mason, @Jack D

  113. @Barack Obama's secret Unz account
    @Simon Tugmutton


    In the period covered, the number of burials and cremations in 2020 was only slightly above the average.
     
    There's only one explanation: hundreds of thousands of unburied corpses must be lining the streets

    Replies: @Screwtape

    I’ve seen them. Its called Denver.

  114. @Johann Theron
    Is there a correlation between vaccine rates and infection rates?

    Replies: @Simon Tugmutton

    Yes.

    https://planetes360.fr/pr-luc-montagnier-les-variants-viennent-des-vaccinations/

    Luc Montagnier’s credentials:

    https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Luc_Montagnier

    Anecdotally, there has been a wave of deaths, in care homes, after mass vaccination there of previously healthy people.

  115. @Jack D
    @Buzz Mohawk

    That's not how evolution works. Lots of animals die after having had sex one time and their evolutionary success is based on putting all of their energy into reproducing as many eggs as possible. Evolution is punctuated - it's based as much on luck (a handful of anomalous individuals having the right traits when conditions change) as upon competitive "fitness".

    Lifespans over the last century have doubled due to "artificial" assistance. Letting nature take its course is not a good idea, at least on the individual scale.

    Replies: @Buzz Mohawk, @Art Deco

    Lifespans over the last century have doubled due to “artificial” assistance.

    Lifespans over the last century have doubled because more people have enjoyed certain qualities of life formerly available only to the rich.

    Food: Glorious, varied, nutritious food became available in stores, at prices middle-class Americans could afford. My (possibly Askenazic) grandfather sold S&W canned food all over northern California while this great change was happening. He is a hero!

    Working conditions: The humane, 40-hour work week, plus later, government enforced safety requirements (my own father had to put those in place in six factories across America.)

    Medicine: Though I just knocked local doctors here, the quality — and, again, the availability — of medical care increased dramatically in the past century, thus helping boost life spans for average people.

    You see, Jack, if you look back, you can find that the top tier of humans always lived longer. What has happened is that modern productivity — the result, BTW, of people just doing what they do when they are free — has brought long life to everyone else.

    The rich and powerful always tended to live long. Now we all do. How about that?

    • Replies: @S. Anonyia
    @Buzz Mohawk

    Did the rich and powerful always live long? Maybe after industrialization.

    However...

    A lot of historical dynastic intrigue occurred (Russia in particular comes to mind) because of the tendency of monarchs to pass away in middle age before their heirs were sufficiently prepared.

    Replies: @but an humble craftsman

  116. I’ve never seen Steve as rump wrinkled as he is in this thread.

  117. like everybody said, it is now hard to believe or trust anything coming from the central government. i don’t put it past them at all to cook the books on any numbers or statistics.

    Karl Denninger said more people died in 2017. maybe that’s the case. i didn’t do a deep dive on that and i won’t. but my question remains, what are the Social Security numbers. how many people suddenly disappeared from the SS payouts. that’s the real tell i would argue.

  118. @Sean
    @Redman


    https://press.princeton.edu/books/hardcover/9780691190785/deaths-of-despair-and-the-future-of-capitalism

    For the white working class, today’s America has become a land of broken families and few prospects. As the college educated become healthier and wealthier, adults without a degree are literally dying from pain and despair. [...] In this critically important book, Case and Deaton tie the crisis to the weakening position of labor, the growing power of corporations, and, above all, to a rapacious health-care sector that redistributes working-class wages into the pockets of the wealthy. Capitalism, which over two centuries lifted countless people out of poverty, is now destroying the lives of blue-collar America.
     

    Germany has good earning jobs in manufacturing without excess hours of work, a peculiar culture of wellness, and a fantastic health service. I made some comments about it at the begining of the pandemic.

    Replies: @Thoughts

    Germany is pretty impoverished.

    I’ve been to Germany recently, don’t know where I was as I wasn’t driving, but the decrepitness of everything I saw was a bit surprising.

    Germans are fat, their wages are low, and their houses and smaller cities look like sh*t. Plenty of Mexicans abound…I mean Turks…

    Germany resembles Echo Park more than anything else. You’ll occasionally see a hot blond teen near an H&M. Occasionally. Very occasionally.

    • Replies: @but an humble craftsman
    @Thoughts

    Sadly true.

    , @Sean
    @Thoughts


    Germans are fat, their wages are low, and their houses and smaller cities look like sh*t. Plenty of Mexicans abound…I mean Turks…
     
    Germans aren't very short though they do have an underclass that drinks a lot, but compared to other advanced counties many inhabitants of Germany live well under decentralized government with excellent healthcare, while working moderate hours for quite good pay (too good hence the importation of Turks ECT). The average German does not spend time discussing /worrying about how much his house is worth or trying to add to its value. They have a less financialized system, and it is much more stable that the bubble /bankers ramp hysterical ups and interspersed with terrible crashed of US debt based free enterprise. Michael Hudson says the German banking practices gave the country an unbeatable advantage in fostering productive capacity, which was potential military power, thereby making the British position as the leading power in Europe untenable. The Germans are now very, very careful to avoid any military potential hence them phasing out nuclear power I think the country is more cooperative and high trust that other places; in the leftie book Humankind there is a bit about why the WW2 German army was so hard to beat : it was a result of their cooperativeness and comradeship. not ideology. Germany still does not have all that many immigrants compared to countries like France and Britain. Working ridiculous hours as a Uber driver or Amazon dispatcher of Chinese goods while subsisting on fast food is best hope for average inhabitant in the rest of the West

    https://youtu.be/iFYwLGaVKTk?t=502

    Affluence does bring a birthrate problem, but a high birthrate brings political instability. Look at the Palestinians and Afghans. Germany gets protected at American taxpayers' expense, and does not have a hostile country on its borders for the first time in its history. Their unions are in relatively good shape.

    , @China Japan and Korea Bromance of Three Kingdoms
    @Thoughts

    Disagree. Berlin is somewhat meh for obvious reasons (bombed out in WW2), but small/medium cities in the wealthier south, Heidelberg, Baden Baden, Freiburg are as charming and idyllic as advertised. You can judge for yourselves

    https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=t4Yrifx9zy4

    Multikulti is obviously dubious in value. Economic growth is tepid and dependent upon their now biggest trade partner, China. They are behind in key technologies like 5G and AI, hence constant hand-wringing, recent online comment on the newspaper Die Zeit that made waves in Sinosphere was

    Lieber ein Vasall der USA, als 'Sklave‘ Chinas
    Better a vassal of USA than a 'slave' of China’s

    Merkel has been very pro-China business, but the Green party is running against Blauäugigkeit (naivety or literally: blue eyed-ness) towards CCP Commies.

    The talent is pretty solid; blondes are in the minority as everywhere in Europe except maybe Scandinavia. The key difference with America is that a lot of more of them actually majored in STEM.

  119. @Jack D
    @Buzz Mohawk

    That's not how evolution works. Lots of animals die after having had sex one time and their evolutionary success is based on putting all of their energy into reproducing as many eggs as possible. Evolution is punctuated - it's based as much on luck (a handful of anomalous individuals having the right traits when conditions change) as upon competitive "fitness".

    Lifespans over the last century have doubled due to "artificial" assistance. Letting nature take its course is not a good idea, at least on the individual scale.

    Replies: @Buzz Mohawk, @Art Deco

    Lifespans over the last century have doubled due to “artificial” assistance.

    Where? In this country ca. 1920, life expectancy at birth was about 60 years.

    And the improvements since the early modern period can be largely attributed to better nutrition and sanitation. The improvements we’ve experienced in the last 50 years might be attributable to other causes. There you’re looking at an additional 8 years of life expectancy at birth and an additional 4 years at age 65, not a doubling.

    • Replies: @Jonathan Mason
    @Art Deco

    Life is expectancy has improved tremendously, because of medical advances even within my lifetime.

    George Orwell died in 1950 from tuberculosis. Now there are several drugs available for tuberculosis, and it is very rare for people to die from TV in developed countries.

    My grandmother died from TB when she was 28. My grandfather died from a stroke when he was 49.

    When I was 7 years old, I was very sick with pneumonia and nearly died, but the doctor came to the house and gave me a big old shot of penicillin from a glass syringe with a long steel needle, and maybe that saved my life.

    The point here is that oral antibiotics--which are taken for granted today--hardly even existed when I was a child.

    Vaccinations have hugely reduced the death of children from communicable diseases.

    Waterborne diseases have been pretty much eliminated in developed countries through public water supply hygiene measures.

    People today are much less likely to die young from heart attacks and strokes due to medical developments in prophylaxis.

    Today we take having blood drawn for medical testing for granted, and millions of these tests are run through computerized testing machines every day. I did not have my first blood test done until I was well into my 40s.

    How quickly we forget how things were.

    , @Jack D
    @Art Deco

    On a worldwide basis it's double. In the US , which was one of the most advanced countries even in 1920, it has "only" gone up by 50%.

    According to this graph, US life expectancy in 1920 was 53, not 60. The flu pandemic caused a slight dip:

    https://www.statista.com/statistics/1040079/life-expectancy-united-states-all-time/

  120. @Wilkey

    Or it could be that deaths were well distributed among people with, say, 20 years expected life so that this clearing-the-underbrush effect will be insignificant.
     
    Yes. But another question will be how many people developed bad health habits (alcoholism, drug abuse, sedentary lifestyles, a fondness for not going to work) during the pandemic, and how much affect that will have on lifespan. I suspect it is not insignificant.

    Replies: @Thoughts

    This.

    Young people in my area are noticeably fatter than a year ago.

    My spouse is noticeably fatter than a year ago.

  121. @Buzz Mohawk
    @Jack D


    Lifespans over the last century have doubled due to “artificial” assistance.
     
    Lifespans over the last century have doubled because more people have enjoyed certain qualities of life formerly available only to the rich.

    Food: Glorious, varied, nutritious food became available in stores, at prices middle-class Americans could afford. My (possibly Askenazic) grandfather sold S&W canned food all over northern California while this great change was happening. He is a hero!

    Working conditions: The humane, 40-hour work week, plus later, government enforced safety requirements (my own father had to put those in place in six factories across America.)

    Medicine: Though I just knocked local doctors here, the quality -- and, again, the availability -- of medical care increased dramatically in the past century, thus helping boost life spans for average people.

    You see, Jack, if you look back, you can find that the top tier of humans always lived longer. What has happened is that modern productivity -- the result, BTW, of people just doing what they do when they are free -- has brought long life to everyone else.

    The rich and powerful always tended to live long. Now we all do. How about that?

    Replies: @S. Anonyia

    Did the rich and powerful always live long? Maybe after industrialization.

    However…

    A lot of historical dynastic intrigue occurred (Russia in particular comes to mind) because of the tendency of monarchs to pass away in middle age before their heirs were sufficiently prepared.

    • Replies: @but an humble craftsman
    @S. Anonyia

    Less food poisoning ...

  122. Anon[837] • Disclaimer says:

    The spread of Covid was primarily done by hospitals. Doctors and nurses were going from patient to patient, as they have done for decades, without masking and suiting up in the early stages of the epidemic, and they caused a ton of spread at this point. Crappy ventilation systems in hospitals blew viruses from room to room. Patients were placed too close together. It’s quite common to have 2 patient rooms, but one person coughing with Covid would infect the other within a day. Once they started filling up the hallways due to lack of patient rooms, it was Covid Armageddon.

    A lot of the spread in nursing homes came from the simple fact that out of every 100 nursing home residents, at least 1 of them needs to make a trip to the hospital on any given day for a medical issue. That person picked up Covid in the hospital, and returned to the nursing home in the early stages of with just a cough. Then that person coughed at meals and gave it to the other residents, gave it to the careworkers, family members who came to visit, etc, and it became nursing home Armageddon. Then you had dumbasses like Cuomo making it worse by putting the Covid-infected into nursing homes.

    The money-saving habit hospitals have of shoving patients out the door as soon as possible, while they still are somewhat sick and coughing, or still weak from recent surgery and in no condition to fight off a hospital-acquired virus, meant Covid hit the community outside the hospital. If people were isolated in the hospital until absolutely cured, hospitals would not have spread the disease so relentlessly. But hospitals are too cheap to keep patients until completely cured anymore. True isolation until cured matters a lot here, but hospitals weren’t doing it.

    The virus was able to spread by piggybacking on top of the medical community. The medical community handled Covid’s spread very poorly in the early days, and it’s the early days that matter. If you don’t stop a virus immediately, it’s harder to stop it once it’s spread.

    • Replies: @but an humble craftsman
    @Anon

    That would explain why (relatively) organized countries like the Netherlands, Germany or the Scandinavian countries seem to have fared a lot better than Italy or France.

  123. Anonymous[189] • Disclaimer says:
    @Bill Jones
    You are deliberately? confusing total "excess" deaths with covid deaths. There has been an explosion of overdose deaths and who knows how many alcohol related. For the first time I can recall I knew one OD and two drank themselves to death. Many of my acquaintance admit to avoiding going to Hospitals and my GP tells me he's seeing less than half his normal load.
    People are dying because of the policies of the State.
    A good illustration of the depth of stupidity of the covid true believers can be seen here
    https://tomwoods.com/covid/

    Replies: @Anonymous

    People are dying because of the policies of the State.

    Why the two big curves then on the graph?

  124. @Steve Sailer
    @Bill Jones

    Nah, just look at the total number of deaths each week.

    I realize it's hard to admit you were wrong, but it's good for the soul.

    Replies: @Hernan Pizzaro del Blanco, @Desiderius, @Sub, @Citizen of a Silly Country, @Travis, @Mr. Anon, @Anthony Aaron, @Marquis, @anon, @Scott Locklin, @Corvinus

    The fearmongers were wrong. The fatality rate of COVID was well under .5%

    Dr. Ioannidis was correct. Infection fatality rate of COVID-19 inferred from seroprevalence data demonstarte that the IFR was closer to .3% than 1%

    The lockdown proponents will never admit they were wrong. The lockdowns are a big reason for the increase in excess deaths.

    • Agree: Marquis
    • Replies: @Scott Locklin
    @Travis


    The lockdowns are a big reason for the increase in excess deaths.
     
    Citations needed. They worked extremely well in Taiwan and New Zealand. Mind you I agree with the Swedish approach and think ultimately keeping old people indoors rather than shutting down civilization was the right approach.

    Replies: @Chrisnonymous, @Art Deco

  125. @Almost Missouri
    For the record, I agree with you that covid was a real thing, though not as real and serious as classical plagues. And that it is prima facie compelling that the excess death waves corresponded pretty well with the "covid cases'" timing and location. Still, one could equally well argue that the most likely source of non-covid excess deaths: i.e. deaths from ordinary non-contagious cardio-pulmonary conditions, which even in covid times were a larger source of deaths than covid, are also most likely to go untreated—and therefore become fatal—in the same times and places as covid case surges occur, as people avoid (or public officials deter) ordinary medical treatment they would otherwise seek.

    Also, re "zero flu deaths", the CDC recently mixed flu and covid together into a new joint category called "PIC" (pneumonia, influenza, and covid), so I'm not sure how much significance we can attach to the "zero flu death" claim. This leaves aside the fact that coronaviruses are anyway an ordinary component of annual influenzas, and that "influenza deaths" itself has always been a dubiously confected statistic that has only existed for about 15 years.

    But anyway, yes, it is good news that the excess deaths, whatever their source, are finally coming down. And your blog is the first (and so far as I know, only) place to report this significant fact.

    Replies: @Barack Obama's secret Unz account, @Daniel Williams

    “Zero flu deaths” is nonsense. Doctors aren’t generally administering flu tests. Why would they? A positive result doesn’t influence treatment.

    Pre-covid, if you presented with something like flu, the doc told you to drink fluids and rest, and then he reported a presumed flu case to the state board that tracks these things.

    Today, when you present with these same symptoms, the doctor writes covid, prescribes bedrest and lots of fluids, and reports a case to whatever state board tracks these things.

    He probably does test you for covid, and you probably have it. It’s going around. You would also potentially test positive for HSV1, some strain of influenza, or any of many other ambient infections, but why bother? Writing “covid” will get you rest, drink fluids, and otherwise alleviate your suffering.

  126. anon[561] • Disclaimer says:

    Deaths in Minneapolis appear normal. Sailer’s Law of shootings tested with 8 shot and 2 dead.

    https://www.msn.com/en-us/news/us/suspect-in-custody-after-2-dead-8-injured-in-minneapolis-shooting/ar-AAKimro

    A mechanical engineering student due to graduate was in the wrong place at the wrong time. Now he’s dead.

    https://www.msn.com/en-us/news/crime/college-student-killed-on-his-graduation-day-in-minneapolis-mass-shooting/ar-AAKioIi

    Something something “lives matter” something.

    Tiresome.

  127. Weekly Total Deaths Finally Returning to Normal

    Just as they would have done had the FedGov had done nothing and no “vaccine” had been developed.

  128. @SunBakedSuburb
    @Anonymous

    "Autoimmune Diseases will now skyrocket from both the virus and the vaccine"

    Speculation regarding the long-term effect of the mRNA vaccine on natural immunity has been proffered by epidemiologists and practicing physicians not affiliated with public health bureaucrats and the pharmacorp sector. An epidemic of autoimmune disease in the coming years is one of their dreads.

    Replies: @Anon

    An epidemic of autoimmune disease in the coming years is one of their dreads.

    Why would mRNA vaccines lead to autoimmune disease?

  129. HA says:
    @Mike Tre
    Again how many access deaths are the result of the lockdowns (deaths of despair - or sick people made afraid to seek treatment?) You say it isn't relevant but it absolutely is. The blogger Hail has address all of this and illustrated simply that the world has experienced these mild outbreaks many many times and all run their course and life and society goes on. The weak ass virus did not justify the actions taken. Period.

    Steve, you and many here applauded the further establishing of a malevolent police state. You averted your eyes to big tech, big retail, and big pharma killing the small business model. You shrugged your shoulders at the humiliating and manipulative purposes behind wearing face masks.

    You were wrong then. You are wrong now.

    Replies: @Steve Sailer, @HA

    “Again how many access deaths are the result of the lockdowns (deaths of despair – or sick people made afraid to seek treatment?)”

    It would be pretty weird if “deaths of despair” spiked up a couple of hundred thousand (if that’s what you’re getting at), even as suicides declined. Yes, that’s right — suicides DECLINED in 2020.

    And while it’s evidently true that a bunch of the commentators here can’t wait till grandma and grandpa just die off already and stop causing so much trouble for the rest of us, for those who aren’t psychopaths, it’s watching grandma and grandpa die from COVID (not exactly an easy way to go) that’s really likely to jack up the despair. But no, let’s overlook that and just blame it all on the lockdowns because they’re the “greatest seizure of liberties ever visited among the American population”, even more than forced conscription, or the IRS, or Prohibition, or anything else that this government has ever done, since unlike all those other impositions, this one affected you personally and you’re all that really matters in this universe.

    • Agree: utu
    • Replies: @Peterike
    @HA

    “ And while it’s evidently true that a bunch of the commentators here can’t wait till grandma and grandpa just die off already and stop causing so much trouble for the rest of us, for those who aren’t psychopaths,”

    You haven’t budged an inch from your maudlin grandstanding I see. What’s it been now, a year plus of you glorying in your own stupendous moral purity?

    To see a true psychopath, look in the mirror.

    Replies: @HA

    , @Mike Tre
    @HA

    And right on cue, one of the Big Pharma sock puppets arrives to perform damage control, with support from the equally notorious covid street preacher utu.

    I didn't read it HA, because you are a waste of time. You should stick to peddling oxycontin.

    Replies: @HA

    , @NotNormAgain
    @HA

    Plot twist, it is exactly you and ur ilk who ARE the psychopaths

  130. @Bill
    @Achmed E. Newman


    All the pages I’d pulled up, from the CDC and others, said they used a baseline (note “line”, not “curve”) of “normal deaths” from an average of ’15 to ’19 deaths of Americans. Yeah, but the average age of an American is rising fairly quickly.
     
    You're saying the baseline mortality rate is not age-adjusted?

    Replies: @Achmed E. Newman

    No, I’m not saying that. I’m saying it’s based on an average of death rates over ’15-’19, with the US population at the ages they were those years. It’s very hard to get a baseline from just one year, as, after all ’19 could have been a good year or a bad year.

    Let me give you this sentence from this CDC page:

    Weekly numbers of deaths by age group and race/ethnicity were assessed to examine the difference between the weekly number of deaths occurring in 2020 and the average number occurring in the same week during 2015–2019 and the percentage change in 2020.

    There are these blocks of age/ethnicity groups. (I’m not worried about the ethnicity part.) For each group the number of deaths in ’15 – ’19 were averaged and then each was subtracted from the same type group’s deaths in ’20 (that page had only late-01/20 – 10/03/20).

    You get, of course, an excess of deaths last year for each group, well maybe not significantly in the young people groups. It’s that average I’ve got a problem with. That ’15-’19 average for each group would get you a smaller base number to subtract out than a ’19-alone number and even more so, a ’20 number, were that possible.

    Now, I came across this NY Times (I know, I broke a multi-year streak just for this crap) article. It refers to the National Vital Statistics System at the CDC.

    Expected rates for each year are calculated using a simple linear regression based on rates from the previous five years.

    That’s different, and I guess they mean expected rates for each age group, but they just say:

    Death rates are age-adjusted by the C.D.C. using the 2000 standard population.

    I’m gonna take the last 5 years and do this simply for It won’t be as easy due to my not being home, but I’ll see what that gets for baseline 2020 deaths.

    It was the CDC article linked-to which got me thinking about this. Just examining every one of these excess death graphs, again, that orange “upper-bound threshold”curve does not go up on average over those 4 years (in Steve’s newest graph). It’ll take me an hour or more to repeat what I did months ago, but I found my old tabs with those tables.

    Thanks, Bill, for getting me going.

  131. @Buzz Mohawk
    @Jonathan Mason


    Are you on Medicare? Do you work in the healthcare industry?
     
    Uh, no. Why do you ask? I am about as far from Medicare and the health care industry as a man can be, and very happy about the fact.

    Over time, I have learned to respect surgeons and dentists, but to let "doctors" just be. I identify with the former, who I think actually do things, while the latter, unfortunately, mostly parrot whatever they are taught and seldom have done anything for me. (I have benefitted from really good surgeons: hernia, septoplasty, oral surgeon for dental implants. Really good guys all who do real stuff, kind of like engineers for the body. Ordinary "doctors" are what one Yale psychiatrist friend told me they call "LMDs," Local Medical Docs, who know nothing and do nothing.)

    Now now, I know doctors are great and they are there when you need them, so don't get me wrong. I'm just lucky enough not to have ever really needed them. I am also simple-minded enough that I only understand the guys who do real, physical things. LMDs mostly are hocus pocus.

    Replies: @Jonathan Mason

    I asked because flu vaccine is routinely offered to all Medicare patients, that is people over the age of 65, and probably the reason that you have not been offered it is that you are below that age.

  132. @SunBakedSuburb
    @Corvinus

    "As a result, healthy skepticism has been replaced by a Trump induced intellectual sterility"

    Not sure if "sterility" is the accurate descriptive for Trump people especially in light of his 1/6 tactical error which gifted more political power to leftist-authoritarians. The state of mind of Trump's people which includes members of my deplorably white family can be best described as pudding-brained.

    How about you and your ilk? Aren't you the least bit skeptical of the liberal-left embrace of a highly-politicized DOJ/FBI which now partially function as a political police for the Democratic Party? The American liberal-left challenged the power of the FBI when Hoover used it as a gestapo to go after those who opposed Establishment overreach. The liberal-left spectrum has been totally hijacked by racist black ladies and men with uteruses; complete mass-delusion on your end. Noxious creatures you and your ilk, totally unlovable; unlike the Trump pudding heads most of whom are salt-of-the-earth types.

    Replies: @anon, @Corvinus

    How about you and your ilk?

    Coronavninus “thinks” what he is paid to. He’s merely a stooge. Nothing more.

  133. @Steve Sailer
    @Bill Jones

    Nah, just look at the total number of deaths each week.

    I realize it's hard to admit you were wrong, but it's good for the soul.

    Replies: @Hernan Pizzaro del Blanco, @Desiderius, @Sub, @Citizen of a Silly Country, @Travis, @Mr. Anon, @Anthony Aaron, @Marquis, @anon, @Scott Locklin, @Corvinus

    Nah, just look at the total number of deaths each week.

    Is that what the blue columns are? I would assume so. The units given are raw numbers. And yet the legend labels them as “Predicted number of deaths from all causes”. So, are they real or are they predicted? Perhaps I shouldn’t expect any kind of consistency from the CDC at this point.

    If they are total deaths – and I have always assumed they are (although that label is confusing) – are they the actual number of deaths that week or the number of deaths reported that week or……….what? Maybe there is some statistician gnome at the CDC who is counting up the deaths for added effect. Sort of like bunching your charitable contributions to minimize your tax bill. It is possible that an overall secular rise in the number of deaths could be squeezed and tugged into bulges that match the COV2 case count.

    One would expect the expected number of deaths to start increasing as the Boomers start dying off. how do generations die off? Does it begin gradually, or does it announce itself suddently. I can imagine that either case could be true.

    And how many of those deaths can be attributed to co-factors arising from the lockdowns and general hysteria itself? i.e.

    1.) Old people dying in nursing homes that had COVID patients sent to them (i.e. what the governors of New York, New Jersey, Pennsylvania, and Michigan did).

    2.) People dying from agressive, over-long over-use of ventillators, which use, one should always remember involves placing the patient in an induced coma, i.e. administering knock-out drugs like propofol for days or weeks on end.

    3.) People dying of heart-attacks and strokes because they were afraid to seek medical attention.

    4.) People dying of heart-attacks and strokes engendered by the 24/7 fear-porn hysteria

    5.) Non acute COVID patients who were denied out-patient treatments (like Ivermectin, HCL/Zinc) with instructions that if they got real sick to return to the hospital (see # 2 above). A lot of those people might have suffered only a mild case of the disease and acquired some natural immunity instead of progressing to ARD that resulted in hospitalization and/or death.

    I have never disputed that COVID is a real pandemic disease. I have disputed that it is significantly worse than any number of previous pandemics during which the World did not collectively run around in a blind funk and set its hair on fire.

    Maybe the CDC could publish a similar time-series as that shown above for the 1968 Hong Kong Flu or the 1957 Asian Flu pandemics, so as to permit us to judge how effective have been the measures taken by the Public Health Mafia Establishment.

    • Agree: Dieter Kief
    • Thanks: Mark G., Achmed E. Newman
  134. @Art Deco
    @Jack D

    Lifespans over the last century have doubled due to “artificial” assistance.

    Where? In this country ca. 1920, life expectancy at birth was about 60 years.

    And the improvements since the early modern period can be largely attributed to better nutrition and sanitation. The improvements we've experienced in the last 50 years might be attributable to other causes. There you're looking at an additional 8 years of life expectancy at birth and an additional 4 years at age 65, not a doubling.

    Replies: @Jonathan Mason, @Jack D

    Life is expectancy has improved tremendously, because of medical advances even within my lifetime.

    George Orwell died in 1950 from tuberculosis. Now there are several drugs available for tuberculosis, and it is very rare for people to die from TV in developed countries.

    My grandmother died from TB when she was 28. My grandfather died from a stroke when he was 49.

    When I was 7 years old, I was very sick with pneumonia and nearly died, but the doctor came to the house and gave me a big old shot of penicillin from a glass syringe with a long steel needle, and maybe that saved my life.

    The point here is that oral antibiotics–which are taken for granted today–hardly even existed when I was a child.

    Vaccinations have hugely reduced the death of children from communicable diseases.

    Waterborne diseases have been pretty much eliminated in developed countries through public water supply hygiene measures.

    People today are much less likely to die young from heart attacks and strokes due to medical developments in prophylaxis.

    Today we take having blood drawn for medical testing for granted, and millions of these tests are run through computerized testing machines every day. I did not have my first blood test done until I was well into my 40s.

    How quickly we forget how things were.

  135. @Wilkey
    @Buzz Mohawk


    Okay, so, why do you get a stupid shot every year for a mild illness? An illness I haven’t had in many years, without a shot, BTW.
     
    Just because an illness doesn’t kill you or have any (known) long term health consequences doesn’t mean it isn’t an enormous drain. It’s bad enough when it’s just you with the flu. When it’s you, and your wife, and any or all of your three children it’s even worse. Or maybe an elderly mother or in-law. Or perhaps a brother already battling cancer.

    The flu is a huge inconvenience, saps your strength for weeks, results in lost income from work, throws you off your exercise regimen, etc. About the only upside to getting the flu is it gives me a good excuse to turn on the out-of-office reply in email, lay on the couch in the man cave for a day or three and binge watch whole seasons of TV shows and post lots of pointless comments here on iSteve that no one will read. And that’s only if my wife didn’t get it, too.

    Replies: @Mr. Anon

    The flu is a huge inconvenience, saps your strength for weeks, results in lost income from work, throws you off your exercise regimen, etc.

    Gee, sounds a lot like what happens to people under the regime of “health lockdowns”, except it doesn’t just happen to sick people but to those who are perfectly healthy too.

  136. @Alvin
    If this thing was circulating as early as winter 2019 why didn't we witness any excess deaths until after the lockdowns were implemented in mid-March 2020?

    Many countries around the world, with varying government measures or no lockdowns, experienced no excess deaths compared to previous years. Excess deaths in the US, in terms of years of life lost, were concentrated mostly among younger populations (under 50 years of age) who were not affected by the virus. The elderly who supposedly died of Covid, above 80 years of age, would have died in 2020 anyway, though I believe many residing in nursing homes simply lost the will to live when they were cut off from family and friends.

    So any excess deaths could be attributed to the lockdowns - anxiety and stress, isolation and depression, unemployment and bankruptcies, canceled medical procedures, missed screenings and treatments for cancer, heart disease, diabetes, and suicides, drug overdoses, excess alcohol consumption, lack of exercise and fresh air - and accompanying fear-mongering by media and government propaganda, not from a virus.

    Replies: @Mr. Anon, @HA

    So any excess deaths could be attributed to the lockdowns – anxiety and stress, isolation and depression, unemployment and bankruptcies, canceled medical procedures, missed screenings and treatments for cancer, heart disease, diabetes, and suicides, drug overdoses, excess alcohol consumption, lack of exercise and fresh air – and accompanying fear-mongering by media and government propaganda, not from a virus.

    I don’t think that all excess deaths could be attributed to the causes you mention. But I suspect that likely many of them could be. How many? That’s a good question. Who is going to answer it? The CDC? Anthony Fauci? Andrew Cuomo or Gretchen Whitmer or Phil Murphy? Nobody in authority is going to want to get into that – into how badly they f**ked things up.

  137. HA says:
    @Buzz Mohawk
    @Jack D


    BTW “that which does not kill you makes you stronger” is just not true.
     
    It is odd to see an intelligent man on an HBD blog write that. You are denying one basis of evolution itself. Even if we leave evolution aside, what is most certainly true is that we weaken ourselves when we rely too much on assistance.

    Hell, this goes to socio-political stuff. The very powers that we here object to want nothing more that to make their supporters dependent on them, and you know who all those people are.

    Helplessness and dependency on help is not a good thing, so why did you just write what you wrote?

    Replies: @Jack D, @HA, @Anonymous Jew

    “[In denying that “that which does not kill you makes you stronger”] You are denying one basis of evolution itself.”

    No. People would like to think that the fact that a bone is in some sense tougher after a break, or that a muscle is stronger after certain kinds of stress, is some kind of universal law, but it isn’t. Evolution doesn’t make you stronger by not killing you. Bone breaks and muscle tears can be permanent and crippling, and the stings and arrows and hundred small cuts will indeed weaken you permanently. It’s the rest of us might well be stronger, as a species, once you eventually die off from all that accumulated weakness and diminished vigor. Though even that’s not guaranteed or clear-cut. The way that humans evolved to “defeat” malaria was to have genetic defects proliferate in malaria-prone populations that messed up blood cells so much that even malaria had trouble dealing with it. (Sickle-cell, Tay-Sachs, thalassemia, etc.) And that meant that the heterozygotes of this defect were not so diseased that they died, and just diseased enough to where malaria was less likely to kill them, and so were better off to some degree, but it’s hard to argue that anyone is stronger as a result of this poison pill Pyrrhic victory, and that’s what sickle cell and Tay-Sachs are, to some extent.

    Evolution doesn’t care if you become stronger or not and it’s not some grand karma-dispensing tough-love life coach. If it eventually turns the human species into copies of that thing at the end of that “I have no mouth and I must scream” horror story, it’s not going to have a problem with that.

  138. @Art Deco
    @Jack D

    Lifespans over the last century have doubled due to “artificial” assistance.

    Where? In this country ca. 1920, life expectancy at birth was about 60 years.

    And the improvements since the early modern period can be largely attributed to better nutrition and sanitation. The improvements we've experienced in the last 50 years might be attributable to other causes. There you're looking at an additional 8 years of life expectancy at birth and an additional 4 years at age 65, not a doubling.

    Replies: @Jonathan Mason, @Jack D

    On a worldwide basis it’s double. In the US , which was one of the most advanced countries even in 1920, it has “only” gone up by 50%.

    According to this graph, US life expectancy in 1920 was 53, not 60. The flu pandemic caused a slight dip:

    https://www.statista.com/statistics/1040079/life-expectancy-united-states-all-time/

  139. The April 2020 spike went from 0 to 100 in 2-3 weeks. A respiratory virus takes 2-3 months.
    The April 2020 spike was PANIC immediately after the pandemic was announced, which crushed the immune system of people in nursing homes.

    The rise Nov-Jan was rise was characteristic of a respiratory virus.

    • Replies: @HA
    @MJB

    "The April 2020 spike went from 0 to 100 in 2-3 weeks. A respiratory virus takes 2-3 months."

    That word "NOVEL coronavirus" you keep hearing? It means it's not guaranteed to behave like all the rest. Like Tolstoy's unhappy families, the worse a disease outbreak is, the less likely it is to conform to to expectations -- that's partly what makes the outbreak worse in the first place.

    And you don't know it went to "100" given that it happened at the same time as authorities decided to scrap their earlier advice to "go out and hug a Chinese person" in favor of social distancing (another novel concept not really applied here in the same manner in previous outbreaks). What if it only went from 0 to 10 or 20 [percent of what it would have reached without social distancing]?

    So even though your "2-3 months" is practically worthless as guideline, given where you likely pulled it from, this thing could still be perfectly in line with it.

  140. MGB says:
    @Mike Tre
    @Steve Sailer

    How many excess deaths of people under 20? It's almost as if you supported all of the draconian measures out of you being afraid to die.

    Replies: @MGB, @Anon

    I have not checked recent stats but there was an article in the FT about a week ago questioning the necessity of vaccinating 12-15 year olds given that there were only a couple of hundred deaths attributed to COVID in the 0-18 category, that out of a population of about 78 million. More recorded deaths in that age group from auto accidents or drowning during the same time frame. Come to think of it maybe the Chinese did release the virus knowing how the likes of Sailer and Unz would react, conducting psychological warfare on their own grandkids. Used to be grandparents and parents sacrificing for the kids. The social security crowd has turned that dynamic on its head.

    • Replies: @Paleo Liberal
    @MGB

    There are reasons to vaccinate kids:

    They are carriers of the disease.

    1. I know of several cases in which a kid picked up COVID from school or whatever, and next thing you know COVID is spreading through the family. In one of those families there were grandparents around who were close to 90. Fortunately, the grandparents were able to get out of there before they got sick.

    2. Having a bunch of disease-ridden kids around means the teachers are more likely to get COVID. The vaccines are NOT 100% effective. Vaccinate teachers could still get COVID.

    3. There are people who for various health reasons either can't get vaxxed or else the vax doesn't work well. For example, not long ago a local 73 year old woman with dementia and all sorts of health issues was taking meds which compromised her immunity. She got vaxxed. Then, she had to go to the ER for some reason. She probably got COVID in the ER. Sadly, she died.

    Also:

    4. Not all kids will have mild or asymptomatic cases of COVID. A 17 year old local kid sadly died of COVID. Deaths are not common among kids, but they happen.

    5. Some kids cannot be vaccinated, same as #3 above.

    6. Having more people vaxxed increases the odds of herd immunity.



    I can see the reasoning behind not vaccinating young children, that is the side effects may be worse than COVID for some kids. We simply don't have that information.

    But, there are risks in not vaxxing the kids. We need to be honest about those, when weighing the relative risks.

  141. But surely the average life expectancy of the people who were born in 1920 increased as the decades rolled by.

    The life expectancy of males born in the 1890s in the countries involved in World War I turned out to be lower than expected because so many of them were killed in the Great War, and the same must have applied to Americans born in the 1840s.

    At the time that the cohort of 1920 were born, TB was still a major killer, but with the invention of streptomycin in the late 1940s, and then other drugs that followed, that disease that killed so many young people was taken out of commission.

    At the time that cohort of 1920 was born penicillin had not yet been discovered. There were antibiotics called sulfonamides but they were nowhere near as effective, and penicillin was a killer drug in eliminating syphilis.

    At the time the cohort of 1920 was born, contraception was much less advanced, and in many jurisdictions not even legal.

    Complications of childbirth and pregnancy were a major cause of early death. However by the time that the women born in 1920 had reached their mid-twenties just in time to participate in creating the baby boom, things had changed and families were smaller than they had being a generation earlier with more children surviving childhood.

  142. Maybe those ‘excess deaths’ as you call them are just the results of petty dictators in government across the US imposing restrictions that caused millions to lose jobs … to be forbidden to go to school in person … to live lives other than of ‘quiet desperation’ … 

    No … maybe — LIKELY — those ‘excess deaths’ are the drug overdoses and suicides and missed surgeries and other medical treatments due to a fake pandemic that was pushed by TheFauci and BigPharma and Bill from the Gates and the WEF and the other likely suspects who will gain from ‘the great reset’.

    • Replies: @Steve Sailer
    @Anthony Aaron

    I tested for that back in December using the first two waves:

    https://www.takimag.com/article/lets-be-over-and-done-in-21/

    You'd expect total excess deaths minus official covid deaths to build up over time: e.g., somebody is too scared to to the doctor to get that lump checked out. But there wasn't much evidence of that yet through the end of September. Of course, in the long run, it almost has to happen due to less preventative health care and the like.

    Instead, the one time there were a lot more excess deaths than official covid deaths was March and April: i.e., when there were few covid tests yet, suggesting the official death count from covid was understated during the first wave.

    , @HA
    @Anthony Aaron

    "No … maybe — LIKELY — those ‘excess deaths’ are the drug overdoses and suicides and missed surgeries and other medical treatments due to a fake pandemic that was pushed by TheFauci and BigPharma and Bill from the Gates and the WEF and the other likely suspects who will gain from ‘the great reset’."

    Again, the number of suicides went DOWN in 2020, so your theory can't even make it past that hurdle (and suicide isn't even in the top ten as far as major causes of death go). And all the deaths that we typically see from elective surgeries? That obviously went down too, so that would offset the "missed surgeries" effect. Also note that cancer deaths were (very slightly) down as well in 2020, so that's another ding against missed surgeries.

    I know it's a complicated issue, and some of those missed surgeries will definitely cause deaths in upcoming years that might have prevented if they had been operated on last year (though they'll be offset by all the fragile people that COVID took out last year), but that's why it's better to actually work with data and with people who do this for a living as opposed to tossing out whatever lame and easily-discredited things you riff off the top of your head (or more likely, a lower body part). Then again, given that actually looking at data makes your lame conspiracy theories look even lamer, I can see why you prefer to stick with the handwaving and stream-of-consciousness rambling about whatever you can toss out in the vain hope that some of it will stick.

    Replies: @Mr. Anon

  143. @Steve Sailer
    @Bill Jones

    Nah, just look at the total number of deaths each week.

    I realize it's hard to admit you were wrong, but it's good for the soul.

    Replies: @Hernan Pizzaro del Blanco, @Desiderius, @Sub, @Citizen of a Silly Country, @Travis, @Mr. Anon, @Anthony Aaron, @Marquis, @anon, @Scott Locklin, @Corvinus

    ‘I realize it’s hard to admit you were wrong, but it’s good for the soul.’

    So … are you talking into the mirror — or to the rest of US … because you seem to be rather strongly stating that YOU are correct and the rest of US — and all of the competent and reliable research we’ve read — is wrong.

    Fancy that …

  144. Anon[172] • Disclaimer says:

    I’m not a huge fan of Eliezer Yudkowsky, but he was correct about this:

    Politics is the mind-killer. Arguments are soldiers. Once you know which side you’re on, you must support all arguments of that side, and attack all arguments that appear to favor the enemy side; otherwise it’s like stabbing your soldiers in the back. If you abide within that pattern, policy debates will also appear one-sided to you—the costs and drawbacks of your favored policy are enemy soldiers, to be attacked by any means necessary.

    The right thinks that the COVID public policy cure has been worse than the disease. They have good arguments at their disposal, but they can’t resist using bad ones too. It’s not true that no one has died of COVID: many people have. And you can argue that vaccine mandates are a civil liberties issue without saying that the vaccines are more dangerous than the virus.

    The pro-lockdown left does the same thing. Perhaps school closures limit the spread of the virus and thus protect older people. But lots of progressives justify them by arguing that the kids themselves are at great risk. That is demonstrably false, but it’s another argument-soldier for their side.

    Although I wince at some of the COVID BS pushed by my right-wing friends on Facebook, I’m on their side about the big picture. This was a massive overreaction to a bad but not civilization-threatening disease. If they could visit us with a time machine, 1920 Americans would find our risk aversion baffling and ridiculous.

    • Agree: Travis
  145. @Jack D
    @Desiderius

    Right, but you did in fact go to the hospital. People who are having heart attacks or strokes and who don't call the ambulance (which you should have BTW) deserve to be Darwin Award winners. Maybe there were a few of these but as I said before, excess deaths tracked Covid outbreaks EXACTLY, city by city - this can't be due to health care avoidance which would have been more or less the same everywhere.

    Replies: @Desiderius, @Mr. Anon, @Wielgus

    That… isn’t in Steve’s graph.

  146. Has anyone added up all the excess deaths and then divided by the ‘official’ Covid death count to figure out the scalar we should multiply the official numbers by to get the real Covid death count?

    Just eyeballing it, it looks like around 400,000. The official death count so far is 600,000.

    So I guess it would be a scalar of about 0.66

    What say you, iSteve?

    • Replies: @Steve Sailer
    @Interferon

    I did that back in December in Taki's Magazine. What I found was that official covid deaths for the first wave were understated. There had been quite a few more excess deaths than official covid deaths. Presumably, they missed many covid-related deaths before they were familiar with it. After the spring, however, the excess deaths and covid deaths were in pretty close synch.

    Replies: @Interferon

  147. I guess a simple question would be: do we trust the numbers they’re reporting? If they lie about everything else, why wouldn’t they just lie about the numbers? Are there any checks and balances to establish the numbers they’re providing are true? At this point, my first reaction to anything the government or a related entity puts out, is skepticism.

  148. That the schools suck is always a rational/government justification to shut/double-down-on them.

    That the government’s War on Covid began in March, 2020 tells me that whatever pan- mortal danger the virus posed had already passed by then.

    The same way that government economic interventions turn otherwise brief recessions (corrections) into lengthy ones.

  149. Anon[172] • Disclaimer says:
    @Mike Tre
    @Steve Sailer

    How many excess deaths of people under 20? It's almost as if you supported all of the draconian measures out of you being afraid to die.

    Replies: @MGB, @Anon

    If I recall, you’ve written that you have teenage kids. Over the past 15 months, one of my family members has experienced the following:

    Cancellation of his senior season of varsity basketball (his lifelong passion), Zoom classes for the last couple months of high school, no prom, a drive-thru graduation with no socializing, no last summer with childhood friends, and a bizarre, partially-virtual freshman year of college with limited socializing. Based on his age and health, COVID poses no risk to him at all.

    I’d like some of the pro-restriction crowd, like HA, to walk us through the moral logic under which it was right to do this to him. And if it was right to make him sacrifice all this for the vulnerable, have you expressed any gratitude for the fact that he did it? Should we have some kind of national reward for young people when this is over?

    It seems like no one talks about this at all. One of the weirdest things about the pandemic has been the callous indifference that commentators and authorities have shown towards young people.

    • Thanks: Mike Tre
    • Replies: @HA
    @Anon

    "Cancellation of his senior season of varsity basketball (his lifelong passion), Zoom classes for the last couple months of high school, no prom,...Based on his age and health, COVID poses no risk to him at all...I’d like some of the pro-restriction crowd, like HA, to walk us through the moral logic under which..."

    You can call me "pro-lockdown" if it makes you feel better about your fragile little world with all its first-world-problems like missed proms, but that's all that's going on here. I'm not happy about lockdowns, I'm just pointing out that the reason that the pro-lockdown people have prevailed is that the anti-lockdown types can't be bothered to come up with anything substantive. I know you don't like to hear that, but give me a break. You want to pretend it's all the suicides and "despair" that's causing that graph to spike up? Seriously? That's no better than the people who were claiming this time last year that the ER personnel were all crisis actors.

    And with regard to (oh, the horror) a lost varsity basketball season, I realize this is going to come as a shock for you, but for most sane people -- even soulless government drones -- death overrides "lost senior basketball season". Yes, even if senior prom is canceled. All the costs required to keep those ventilators humming override the loss of popcorn revenue and future NBA earnings that will have been missed. I mean, it's not even a contest. Yes, most of these dead people were old, and fat, and brown, but for whatever crazy reason, people in the ER rooms are not allowed to simply say "Nah,...not worth it" and go back to business as usual.

    High-schoolers are -- from we can see so far -- at minimal risk from COVID, that's true. But they sill spread it to others who have a rougher time with it.

    If you want to change our society into adopting a "health care should only be for the young, non-obese, and non-brown" kind of system, have at it. Put it on a bumper sticker and see who votes for it. I.e. come up with a genuine plan. I'm sure the Bloomberg types who want to tax sugary sodas would love to see some legislation to get people skinnier, so maybe you can team up.

    But otherwise, whining and moaning about your fragile little flowers who missed a baseball season is not going to impress those who note the hundreds of thousands extra in corpses. Learn to prioritize. Again, not even a contest.

    Replies: @J.Ross, @botazefa, @Jonathan Mason, @Anon

  150. Anonymous[220] • Disclaimer says:

    As I’ve been saying for a very long time, the novel coronavirus is neither the end of the world nor nothing. It’s a sizable problem.

    Huh? You hyped this like crazy. You were talking 5 million dead in the USA alone. There was something fishy about this panic.

  151. Bezos Blog views with alarm another “return to normal”. Oh, the horror!

    • Replies: @Anonymous
    @anon

    Question: which is more believable, the "people want to touch my hair" stories or the "he told me to smile" stories? I'm guessing one in a million hair stories are true and that the smile stories have never occurred, period.

  152. @Corvinus
    @Hernan Pizzaro del Blanco

    For public health concerns, yes, the measures were justified.

    Replies: @Anonymous, @Bill, @Mr. Anon, @Colin Wright

    I’m as doomer as doomer can be, and I’m sure you’re wrong.

    The conventional wisdom among public health clowns before covid was that masks and pseudo-lockdowns were ineffective. The effectiveness of these silly measures was simply assumed, in the teeth of the existing evidence, and policy proceeded. Now that we’ve been through it, the evidence that lockdowns and masking did much of anything is weak to nonexistent.

    If we had done a Chinese-style lockdown plus contact tracing in early February, 2020, maybe we could have stopped it, but what we did instead was retarded. What we did was follow the advice of the public health clowns. Do nothing, they said, all through January, February, and three weeks of March. Then, suddenly, it changed in the third week of March to let’s do lame-and-sure-to-fail infection control theater. And, of course, the whole thing was led by Anthony “heterosexual AIDS any minute now” Fauci.

    We are a clown country.

  153. OK, hell, that was 10 minutes on the spreadsheet for the one part, and 2 hours with the phone calculator for the rest! (Yeah, I can’t get to my computer now, and by the time I got this tablet going with any spreadsheet software that didn’t write to the freakin’ cloud, well, I have a full page full of numbers here:

    Go to a .xls table like this one, which is for ’15, but you can get that for any year. (Just type in the search engine “Age and Sex Composition in the United States: 2015” and sub in your year.) It’s straight from the Census people and even we Constitutionalists will talk to those guys! I had to add up the 35-39 + 40-44, etc., because I needed to match 10-year-wide brackets from bar graphs in the middle of the CDC general mortality by age bracket bar graphs like this one (Same dealy, just punch in “Mortality in the United States 2019 CDC” with the year you want – each one compares one year to the previous. Note, I left Statista behind, as they didn’t seem to want to get me every year I wanted, and then I came upon these CDC .pdf’s.

    Then, I made a table from the CDC bar graph numbers of mortality in those 10-year-wide age brackets by year. It really doesn’t change much, which is the point here. Only for 85+ did it go down anything, about 1.6 % from ’15 to ’19. (That was, however, overwhelmed by a 6% increase in the number of 85+ Americans.) So, I just took the average of these death rate.

    Then, I had calculated the death rate for each age group x the number of Americans in each. I just did from that 35-44 through 85+, 6 of them, since I didn’t have all damn day and those death rates, for 0-4, 5-14, 15-24, and 24-35 are ) 24, 13, 70, and 129 deaths/100,000 respectively, as compared to 192, 400, 883, 1,785, 4,444, and 13,465 deaths/100,000 for 35-44, 45-54, 55-64, 65-74, 75-84, and 85+ One can get those other 4 from the same source, but this is left to the reader.

    Here’s the gist of all that, but keep in mind, it’s not that those under 35 y/o deaths aren’t a significant amount. I just don’t they’ll change the differences I’m getting to here, but tell you what – maybe manana. If you average ’15-’19, from these 5 year’s worth of (age bracket death rate x Americans in bracket) summed up, you get 2,55 million (that sounds way too low, but again it excludes the young folks each time, and I’m going for a difference). If you take just ’19, you get 2.65 million, so 100,000 more for a baseline. What if you took 2020? I can’t get that yet in the format I wanted.

    • Replies: @Achmed E. Newman
    @Achmed E. Newman

    OK, I left out the part about the NY Times stating that a linear regression of '13-19 normal mortality was done to get this baseline. They are just reporting, so I can't get the details there. What I just did was plug in '14 to '19 total American deaths.* A best fit line gave me '20 deaths of 2,925,000 as a sort of "normal" death number progression.

    Here's the gist of why I'm bothering with all this. I don't like that orange baseline curve staying pretty much level when the yearly waves are smoothed out. I don't trust that these people are doing it right. However, it's very obvious that the older age brackets are getting bigger each year. If I take my '19 number from the 6 brackets x the numbers of Americans in them, summed up, and subtract the '15 number, it's a difference of 191,000 people that would "normally" die.** Keep in mind in this that the death rates are pretty steady for the age brackets, at least for any age 35-84, over those 5 years.

    Again, I don't say this wipes out all "excess deaths", but it's significant.

    That's it for today. I will try to present this in some orderly fashion on my blog, this coming week.

    .

    * These numbers matched from 2 varied sources so I'm going with them:

    Year - Deaths (/1,000,000):
    '14 - 2.626
    '15 - 2.712
    '16 - 2.744
    '17 - 2.814
    '18 - 2.839
    '19 - 2.855

    ** Well, one can see that in the numbers just above, of course. Why not just have used them and saved a few hours on the calculator? I'm trying to see what's really going on.

  154. @Jonathan Mason
    @TomSchmidt

    There are many variables.

    Florida is a non lockdown state, but it has a huge number of elderly people, because many people from northern states have moved there to retire.

    Another statistic of interest could be the incidence of obesity in a state. Obesity is also linked with respiratory disease and with diabetes, all of which are risk factors for death from Covid-19.

    One might also want to look at the incidence of high density housing versus low density housing within a state, and the incidence of use of public transportation versus personal car ownership.

    Replies: @Bill

    Yes, Florida is a good illustration of the fact that lockdown theater is ineffective. Florida did well on covid mortality despite being packed to the gills with old people and having no lockdown except briefly at the beginning. It’s a disaster for buffoons like Anthony Fauci.

  155. @TomSchmidt
    @Desiderius

    How do locked-down versus non-locked-down states compare on non-COVID deaths? That should be easy.

    The illogic of lockdowns shown by comparison of the two probably also invalidates your thesis.

    Replies: @Desiderius, @Jonathan Mason, @Bill Jones

    Everything you need to know about Masks and lockdowns is in the charts here.

    https://www.covidchartsquiz.com/

    • Thanks: Hippopotamusdrome
    • Replies: @TomSchmidt
    @Bill Jones

    Oh, I like that. Hopefully the website remains up for a few months.

  156. Since COVID-19 has killed so many of the sickliest people over the past 15 months, we should expect this graph to hover well below the orange line for the next couple of years.

    If my guess is correct, that would indicate that COVID-19 wasn’t actually killing people, just shifting forward the deaths of people who were already going to die by a few months.

  157. @Bill Jones
    It's particularly hard to make confidence-inducing predictions when believing the bullshit emanating from the CDC.
    Their "excess deaths" number is a wholly fictional artifact constructed by creating an expected number of deaths by major causes, comparing this fiction to reported deaths then, if deaths from a none controversial cause is below expectations, "normalizing"- i.e adjusting upward, that number.
    Thus if heart attacks (London suffered a real dearth of heart attacks for a couple of months because it was the covid not the heart that attacked them) fall, they are adjusted upward to meet expectations and voila! excess deaths.

    With the CDC'S inauguration day gift to Resident Biden of turning down the PCR cycles on tests, it's ok for people to go back to dying from what killed them.

    https://catholiccitizens.org/news/94232/covid-cases-plummet-after-who-changes-testing-protocol-on-bidens-inauguration-day/


    Meanwhile, the same technique is being used to amp up the "effectiveness" of the experimental gene therapy masquerading as a vaccine.
    https://off-guardian.org/2021/05/18/how-the-cdc-is-manipulating-data-to-prop-up-vaccine-effectiveness/


    The reason for all of this, other than the massively destructive transfer of power to the State is that the CDC effectively became a drug company with the passage of the Bayh-Dole act in 1980.

    https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Bayh%E2%80%93Dole_Act


    Faucci owns over 50 patents, Gates isn't the only angel of death making out like a bandit,

    Replies: @Steve Sailer, @MGB, @Jim Christian

    How does Fauci, a federal employee of nearly 50 years, own 50 patents? The USG owns his work and those patents, one would think, just as a company would own the work and patents of THEIR employees. How does that corrupt little earthworm own even one?

    • Replies: @res
    @Jim Christian

    This search returns 64 matches. I did not go through them in detail, but it looks like most are assigned to the government.

    https://patents.google.com/?inventor=anthony+fauci&oq=anthony+fauci

    , @Bill Jones
    @Jim Christian

    Read the Bayh-Dole act of 1980.

    It effectively turned the CDC into the marketing arm of big Pharma.

    https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Bayh%E2%80%93Dole_Act

    It is unbelievable that people are taking unproven and unapproved genetic experiment produced by either a criminal company found guilty of medical fraud who paid the largest fine in history, or by a company who has never brought a vaccine to market.

  158. @inertial
    Steve, go to the CDC site that you link to, scroll to the chart, and select option "Weekly Number of Deaths by Cause Group."

    I will show that the vast majority of excess deaths in the main chart came from “Circulatory Diseases” and “Alzheimer and Dementia.”

    “Respiratory Diseases” show only a small bump in March-April 2020 (with its top below the levels of 2015 and 2018) and after that stay at the normal level.

    https://i.imgur.com/WaZDsv5.jpg


    I don't know what it means but I'd like to point this out.

    Replies: @Chrisnonymous

    The fact that COVID results in respiratory and circulatory problems and attacks the elderly (dementia) combined with the fact that these spikes happened in the beginning of the year but not with the later spikes in total excess deaths implies that (the most simple explanation) in early stages there were COVID-related deaths that were not recognized as being part of the pandemic and were ascribed to other causes.

    The real challenge to Steve is not on stats like this graph but in the philosophical positions underlying his preferences. What is the nature of society and to what extent is death a natural part of human existence?

    Part of the amazing thing to me about 2020 is the extent to which public discussion has avoided addressing questions like the trade-off between freedom and wealth on the one hand and safety on the other–a trade-off in which our society frequently comes down on the side of freedom and wealth, just not in this case. Steve’s statements that he prefers to save as many people as possible do not constitute tackling that question. But I can’t be too critical because public intellectuals just haven’t been talking about that for the past year.

    On Unz Review, the debate has literally not risen above name-calling. Commenters like utu and HA call everyone who questions their pet issues psychopaths who want to kill off the elderly while commenters like Achmed E. Newmann call me a totalitarian for daring to broach the question of whether we should have a national conversation about the acceptability or advisability of a Wuhan-level lockdown at the beginning of a pandemic to nip it in the bud.

    In the wider society, as many have noted, the pandemic just became another field on which to wage the virtue-signaling political battles that have come to characterize our intellectual life.

    It’s not just an academic question either, because we are likely to have other pandemic or natural disasters in the future and our inability to talk about issues is an inability to plan. As some astute observers have noted, although many ascribed early-stage failures to Trump, the reality is that they were failures of our institutions and political elites, not of Trump personally. Hopefully, as the hysteria recedes, we will not be hit with another crisis immediately (like war in Taiwan), and people like Steve can do something more useful than re-publishing graphs created by the agencies that failed.

  159. @Achmed E. Newman
    OK, hell, that was 10 minutes on the spreadsheet for the one part, and 2 hours with the phone calculator for the rest! (Yeah, I can't get to my computer now, and by the time I got this tablet going with any spreadsheet software that didn't write to the freakin' cloud, well, I have a full page full of numbers here:

    Go to a .xls table like this one, which is for '15, but you can get that for any year. (Just type in the search engine "Age and Sex Composition in the United States: 2015" and sub in your year.) It's straight from the Census people and even we Constitutionalists will talk to those guys! I had to add up the 35-39 + 40-44, etc., because I needed to match 10-year-wide brackets from bar graphs in the middle of the CDC general mortality by age bracket bar graphs like this one (Same dealy, just punch in "Mortality in the United States 2019 CDC" with the year you want - each one compares one year to the previous. Note, I left Statista behind, as they didn't seem to want to get me every year I wanted, and then I came upon these CDC .pdf's.

    Then, I made a table from the CDC bar graph numbers of mortality in those 10-year-wide age brackets by year. It really doesn't change much, which is the point here. Only for 85+ did it go down anything, about 1.6 % from '15 to '19. (That was, however, overwhelmed by a 6% increase in the number of 85+ Americans.) So, I just took the average of these death rate.

    Then, I had calculated the death rate for each age group x the number of Americans in each. I just did from that 35-44 through 85+, 6 of them, since I didn't have all damn day and those death rates, for 0-4, 5-14, 15-24, and 24-35 are ) 24, 13, 70, and 129 deaths/100,000 respectively, as compared to 192, 400, 883, 1,785, 4,444, and 13,465 deaths/100,000 for 35-44, 45-54, 55-64, 65-74, 75-84, and 85+ One can get those other 4 from the same source, but this is left to the reader.

    Here's the gist of all that, but keep in mind, it's not that those under 35 y/o deaths aren't a significant amount. I just don't they'll change the differences I'm getting to here, but tell you what - maybe manana. If you average '15-'19, from these 5 year's worth of (age bracket death rate x Americans in bracket) summed up, you get 2,55 million (that sounds way too low, but again it excludes the young folks each time, and I'm going for a difference). If you take just '19, you get 2.65 million, so 100,000 more for a baseline. What if you took 2020? I can't get that yet in the format I wanted.

    Replies: @Achmed E. Newman

    OK, I left out the part about the NY Times stating that a linear regression of ’13-19 normal mortality was done to get this baseline. They are just reporting, so I can’t get the details there. What I just did was plug in ’14 to ’19 total American deaths.* A best fit line gave me ’20 deaths of 2,925,000 as a sort of “normal” death number progression.

    Here’s the gist of why I’m bothering with all this. I don’t like that orange baseline curve staying pretty much level when the yearly waves are smoothed out. I don’t trust that these people are doing it right. However, it’s very obvious that the older age brackets are getting bigger each year. If I take my ’19 number from the 6 brackets x the numbers of Americans in them, summed up, and subtract the ’15 number, it’s a difference of 191,000 people that would “normally” die.** Keep in mind in this that the death rates are pretty steady for the age brackets, at least for any age 35-84, over those 5 years.

    Again, I don’t say this wipes out all “excess deaths”, but it’s significant.

    That’s it for today. I will try to present this in some orderly fashion on my blog, this coming week.

    .

    * These numbers matched from 2 varied sources so I’m going with them:

    Year – Deaths (/1,000,000):
    ’14 – 2.626
    ’15 – 2.712
    ’16 – 2.744
    ’17 – 2.814
    ’18 – 2.839
    ’19 – 2.855

    ** Well, one can see that in the numbers just above, of course. Why not just have used them and saved a few hours on the calculator? I’m trying to see what’s really going on.

  160. @Citizen of a Silly Country
    @Steve Sailer

    Before you start your victory dance, Steve, perhaps you should be reminded that you were wrong on the central question concerning Covid.

    For the millionth time, let's look at what the real question around Covid was. First, nobody but loons claimed that Covid was "just the flu, bro." It was and is a very nasty virus, though, as you have mentioned not the Black Death.

    The question was and is: How effective are the lockdowns and are their benefits (if any) worth the damage (economic and social) inflicted on the population?

    Given that Sweden had lower deaths per million (yes, I know that its neighbors were even lower) than the United States and the lack of evidence that the lockdowns had much effect at all in slowing the spread of the virus, the answer is clearly that the lockdowns (and the mass authority that the government assumed) were a monumental mistake.

    Covid was tailor-made for the old Steve Sailer. You could have use the numbers and your logic to rip the whole government response to shreds. Instead, well, lets just say that it wasn't your finest hour.

    Replies: @Bill

    For the millionth time, let’s look at what the real question around Covid was. First, nobody but loons claimed that Covid was “just the flu, bro.” It was and is a very nasty virus, though, as you have mentioned not the Black Death.

    That simply isn’t true. Anthony Fauci was saying that it was just a bad flu through the third week of March, 2020. The entire public health clownshow was saying it was just a bad flu over roughly the same period. Several eminent members of the public health clownshow, perhaps most prominently Stanford professor and epidemiologist John Ioannidis, claimed that there would be virtually no deaths. He, in particular, maintained this lunatic position for months after it was clearly proved wrong. There were and still are a bunch of floomers, several of whom seemed like sane people to me before, hanging out in isteve land.

    People’s memory is astonishingly plastic. There was a mind-boggling 180 which occurred in the third week of March, 2020 in which almost the entire public health clownshow went from “it’s just the flu” to “it’s the black death.” Nobody seems to remember this occurring.

    As to your main point, yes, it seems right that lockdowns (as we did them) and masking were infection control theater and were a bad idea.

    • Replies: @Steve Sailer
    @Bill

    We didn't have much of a clue how it was spread until the Gangelt study was released on 4/9/20 in Germany. Everybody assumed it was spread by touch but it turned out to be spread by air during indoor fun, in the case of Gangelt a Mardi Gras-type event where everybody dressed up in lederhosen and did peasant dances on Shrove Tuesday.

    But it took for roughly ever for the Gangelt breakthrough to sink in on the minds of the public health establishment. They were still, for example, freaking out over beaches that looked crowded in telephoto shots months later.

    Replies: @zacie, @curtis dunkel

    , @Mike1
    @Bill

    It really is amazing. I got harassed for wearing a mask in early 2020. The exact same people stare at me with hatred for NOT wearing a mask now.

    , @Mr. Anon
    @Bill


    Several eminent members of the public health clownshow, perhaps most prominently Stanford professor and epidemiologist John Ioannidis, claimed that there would be virtually no deaths.
     
    I am unaware of any such statement by Ioannidis. Can you link to one?

    Replies: @Bill, @HA

    , @Anonymous
    @Bill

    When did Neal Ferguson (sp?) Give his 2.2 million deaths in the US claim? That's probably the date of the switch.

    Replies: @Bill

  161. HA says:
    @MJB
    The April 2020 spike went from 0 to 100 in 2-3 weeks. A respiratory virus takes 2-3 months.
    The April 2020 spike was PANIC immediately after the pandemic was announced, which crushed the immune system of people in nursing homes.

    The rise Nov-Jan was rise was characteristic of a respiratory virus.

    Replies: @HA

    “The April 2020 spike went from 0 to 100 in 2-3 weeks. A respiratory virus takes 2-3 months.”

    That word “NOVEL coronavirus” you keep hearing? It means it’s not guaranteed to behave like all the rest. Like Tolstoy’s unhappy families, the worse a disease outbreak is, the less likely it is to conform to to expectations — that’s partly what makes the outbreak worse in the first place.

    And you don’t know it went to “100” given that it happened at the same time as authorities decided to scrap their earlier advice to “go out and hug a Chinese person” in favor of social distancing (another novel concept not really applied here in the same manner in previous outbreaks). What if it only went from 0 to 10 or 20 [percent of what it would have reached without social distancing]?

    So even though your “2-3 months” is practically worthless as guideline, given where you likely pulled it from, this thing could still be perfectly in line with it.

  162. Why does the first peak in March/April of 2020 look different than the subsequent two peaks? It has an asymmetric shape with a sharp rise, rather like a binomial distribution, instead of the more symmetric gaussian shape the other two bumps have. If memory serves, a gaussian distribution is the large number limit of a binomial distribution, when the abscissa is not limited to positive numbers (or it’s far enough away from the origin as to not matter), so one might expect the first bump to have that shape if it represented a small sample size. But it doesn’t; it represents a lot of deaths (a relatively large area under the curve).

    • Replies: @Steve Sailer
    @Mr. Anon

    Spring of 2020 was mostly in one place: Greater New York City. The summer 2020 wave was mostly in hot weather sunbelt places where people stay inside for the air conditioning. The third wave started in the Dakotas and spread south and out as it got too cold to go outdoors.

    Replies: @Mr. Anon

  163. @Jack D
    @Desiderius

    Right, but you did in fact go to the hospital. People who are having heart attacks or strokes and who don't call the ambulance (which you should have BTW) deserve to be Darwin Award winners. Maybe there were a few of these but as I said before, excess deaths tracked Covid outbreaks EXACTLY, city by city - this can't be due to health care avoidance which would have been more or less the same everywhere.

    Replies: @Desiderius, @Mr. Anon, @Wielgus

    Maybe there were a few of these but as I said before, excess deaths tracked Covid outbreaks EXACTLY, city by city…

    Lockdown severity and news coverage tracked COVID outbreaks too.

  164. @Corvinus
    @Hernan Pizzaro del Blanco

    For public health concerns, yes, the measures were justified.

    Replies: @Anonymous, @Bill, @Mr. Anon, @Colin Wright

    For public health concerns, yes, the measures were justified.

    They were not justified.

    More importantly, they were not ethical, wise, or legal.

    And – though it hardly needs repeating – you are a stupid, contemptible ass.

    • Disagree: Achmed E. Newman
    • Replies: @Achmed E. Newman
    @Mr. Anon

    Disagree due to this part, Mr. Anon:


    And – though it hardly needs repeating – you are a stupid, contemptible ass.
     
    Wrong. It DOES need repeating.

    BTW, great comments here. I'm still getting through them, as I spent so much time on calculations yesterday. My comments were not in a good format, but suffice it to say that the CDC's stated method of averaging '15 - '19 deaths for that "normal" death count gets one 100,000 "normal" deaths lower than one would get looking simply at American's ages and normal death rates at those ages for '19 alone, much less '20. That means the excess deaths may be inflated by that 100,000 just due to this.

    Then, when you add in other early deaths as you and others have described due to the major disruption of society, it may add up to a big chunk, though not nearly all, of those excess deaths that this post is about.

    Replies: @Travis

  165. HA says:
    @Alvin
    If this thing was circulating as early as winter 2019 why didn't we witness any excess deaths until after the lockdowns were implemented in mid-March 2020?

    Many countries around the world, with varying government measures or no lockdowns, experienced no excess deaths compared to previous years. Excess deaths in the US, in terms of years of life lost, were concentrated mostly among younger populations (under 50 years of age) who were not affected by the virus. The elderly who supposedly died of Covid, above 80 years of age, would have died in 2020 anyway, though I believe many residing in nursing homes simply lost the will to live when they were cut off from family and friends.

    So any excess deaths could be attributed to the lockdowns - anxiety and stress, isolation and depression, unemployment and bankruptcies, canceled medical procedures, missed screenings and treatments for cancer, heart disease, diabetes, and suicides, drug overdoses, excess alcohol consumption, lack of exercise and fresh air - and accompanying fear-mongering by media and government propaganda, not from a virus.

    Replies: @Mr. Anon, @HA

    “If this thing was circulating as early as winter 2019 why didn’t we witness any excess deaths until after the lockdowns were implemented in mid-March 2020?”

    Because when it comes to contagious diseases, “circulating” is not the same as having enough to skyrocket to where this thing did. Measles has been “circulating” forever. But once measles infects enough people, then it really starts to take off. That’s why they use exponential growth to model this stuff.

    “So any excess deaths could be attributed to the lockdowns – anxiety and stress, isolation and depression, unemployment and bankruptcies, canceled medical procedures, missed screenings and treatments for cancer, heart disease, diabetes, and suicides, drug overdoses, excess alcohol consumption, lack of exercise and fresh air…”

    If one is a clueless idiot, one can attribute those deaths however one likes, and there are plenty of examples of that on this thread. But people who have actually tallied up the numbers have noted that suicides actually went DOWN last year. Deaths from elective surgeries likewise went down. Deaths from heart disease went up by only 30K. So somehow your “lack of fresh air” theory is going to have to explain a reduction in suicide alongside some unspecified increase in deaths from “anxiety and stress” or whatever in such a way that it actually explains an extra half million deaths or so. If that’s your plan, good luck with it.

    I don’t deny that there are plenty of experts here who can brush away whatever doesn’t suit their confirmation bias and blow up everything else to explain the extra couple of hundred thousand dead we’ve seen last year. For the rest of us, who don’t walk into a plane and presume to give the pilot flying tips, and who don’t think their Facebook circle of anti-vaxxer co-conspiracy theorists know more about the dangers of vaccinations than a pediatrician, it’s not very convincing.

    Fauci is no saint, but if the so-called experts around here are the alternative, it’s no wonder people seem by and large more willing to listen to him. That being the case, instead of tossing out unsubstantiated guesswork on what MIGHT be going on, take some classes in immunology, and epidemiology — i.e. pay your dues — and beat the experts at their own game?

    • Replies: @Alvin
    @HA

    You don't need to be an expert in immunology or epidemiology to understand and analyze statistics. The JAMA article you cite doesn't adjust for population growth (as far as I can tell) or adjust for age of population. If you take those two considerations into account, 2020 mortality is similar to 2004 mortality. I would be more interested in deaths by age.

    We also know that almost any death can be labeled a "Covid" death on the certificate, because of huge bonuses to hospitals, including deaths from gun shot wounds, car accidents, falling off a ladder, and anything else badged with a positive PCR. CDC itself said 6% (more recently 5%) of "Covid" deaths are "Covid only" deaths and average Covid deaths had 3.5 comorbidities. In Italy, that "Covid only" figure is 1%.

    Nothing in your comments or the JAMA article disproves lockdown policies led to an increase in deaths due to their many disruptions to normal life. Sweden, with no lockdowns but disproportionate nursing home population, had excess deaths that were average compared to the rest of Europe and less than many of the most extreme lockdown and mask countries.

    Going back to that JAMA table, there is significant increase in "unintentional injuries". How many of those might be drug overdose and suicide related? How many so-called Covid deaths were suicides? Also keep in mind that we haven't felt the full effects of the lockdowns, which could take another few years. It'll be interesting to see the number of deaths, especially among the younger populations, over the next several years.

    Replies: @HA

  166. @Matt Buckalew
    @Desiderius

    Look Steve’s kids weren’t gonna voluntarily stay home for a year and a half and Steve lacks the authority and disposition to make them- so we needed to shut the country down.

    Not to mention Steve’s zero percent chance of knowing what Gospel that’s from is part and parcel to boomer solipsistic secularism leading to terror in the face of even the slightest hint of death. A

    Replies: @Dieter Kief

    boomer solipsistic secularism leading to terror in the face of even the slightest hint of death.

    Life and death are internally related (and thus connected). This is the hard part of human existence and secularisation is always tempted to rip the circle of life and death apart and thus trying to get one without the other (= to believe in white (sigh) magic).

    • Replies: @Anonymous
    @Dieter Kief



    boomer solipsistic secularism leading to terror in the face of even the slightest hint of death.
     
    Life and death are internally related (and thus connected). This is the hard part of human existence and secularisation is always tempted to rip the circle of life and death apart and thus trying to get one without the other (= to believe in white (sigh) magic).
     
    Boomers may be lacking in children and grandchildren. They may be lacking in religious faith. The absence these things makes death seem to have higher stakes than otherwise. Were you in their shoes, how would you feel?
  167. @Jack D
    @PiltdownMan


    I expect many of the Covid cases we’ll experience will be from the 70 million or so foreigners who visit here every year, and who, by and large, are not vaccinated, and won’t likely be mostly vaccinated within a year.
     
    Putting aside the people who just stroll in across the Mexican border, I assume that once foreign travel resumes, foreign visitors will be required to be vaccinated and/or to screen negative for Covid in order to be exempt from quarantine - that's how they are doing it in Europe. I'm sure there will be some fraud/non-compliance but most visitors will comply.

    Replies: @Achmed E. Newman

    But, of course. You can’t make up face vaccine passports like you can regular ones (or have the corrupt immigration man let you in, so you can get on the bus to go to indentured servitude at the China King Buffet). You act like we have a serious country here.

    What if, not counting those millions that come across the southern border, 95% comply? I’m guessing that the good Doctor Fauci wouldn’t be happy with only 95% of the Flu Manchu germs being caught by Corvinus’s quadro-diaper.

  168. @HA
    @Mike Tre

    "Again how many access deaths are the result of the lockdowns (deaths of despair – or sick people made afraid to seek treatment?)"


    It would be pretty weird if "deaths of despair" spiked up a couple of hundred thousand (if that's what you're getting at), even as suicides declined. Yes, that's right -- suicides DECLINED in 2020.

    And while it's evidently true that a bunch of the commentators here can't wait till grandma and grandpa just die off already and stop causing so much trouble for the rest of us, for those who aren't psychopaths, it's watching grandma and grandpa die from COVID (not exactly an easy way to go) that's really likely to jack up the despair. But no, let's overlook that and just blame it all on the lockdowns because they're the "greatest seizure of liberties ever visited among the American population", even more than forced conscription, or the IRS, or Prohibition, or anything else that this government has ever done, since unlike all those other impositions, this one affected you personally and you're all that really matters in this universe.

    Replies: @Peterike, @Mike Tre, @NotNormAgain

    “ And while it’s evidently true that a bunch of the commentators here can’t wait till grandma and grandpa just die off already and stop causing so much trouble for the rest of us, for those who aren’t psychopaths,”

    You haven’t budged an inch from your maudlin grandstanding I see. What’s it been now, a year plus of you glorying in your own stupendous moral purity?

    To see a true psychopath, look in the mirror.

    • Replies: @HA
    @Peterike

    "To see a true psychopath, look in the mirror."

    Ah yes, lessons in psychopathy from someone who repeatedly wants to remind us that "500,000 deaths is a meaningless blip".

    Despite what you may think of your psychological acumen (and it could hardly be worse than your abysmal track record on COVID), your evident first-hand experience with being a psychopath does not qualify you as an expert in diagnosing it.

  169. I’m agreeing with everything in your post, but I think your point 5.) is most important:

    “…Non acute COVID patients who were denied out-patient treatments (like Ivermectin, HCL/Zinc)…”

    When the history of all this lunacy is written, I think the out-right suppression of promising therapeutics, for purely political reasons, should take up the first hundred pages.

    If the vaccines turn out to be safe and effective – well, great! But why push them on everybody *to the exclusion* of Ivermectin, HCL/Zinc &c?

    (Replying to Mr. Anon/134)

    • Agree: Mark G.
  170. But why push them on everybody *to the exclusion* of Ivermectin, HCL/Zinc &c?

    Because they couldn’t get emergency authorization for the genetic experiment vaccine if a treatment already existed.

  171. Sailer had cancer in the ’90s and it scared him shitless and made him fear death. Boring.

    I had cancer in the early ’90s as a child and it made me never fear death. Boring.

    Cancer turned Sailer into a faggot. It turned me into a man.

  172. Or it could well be that covid has nasty long term effects on a non-trivial number of current survivors, who will die of long term effects.

    The same could be said for vaccines.

  173. Anonymous[345] • Disclaimer says:
    @Dieter Kief
    @Matt Buckalew


    boomer solipsistic secularism leading to terror in the face of even the slightest hint of death.
     
    Life and death are internally related (and thus connected). This is the hard part of human existence and secularisation is always tempted to rip the circle of life and death apart and thus trying to get one without the other (= to believe in white (sigh) magic).

    Replies: @Anonymous

    boomer solipsistic secularism leading to terror in the face of even the slightest hint of death.

    Life and death are internally related (and thus connected). This is the hard part of human existence and secularisation is always tempted to rip the circle of life and death apart and thus trying to get one without the other (= to believe in white (sigh) magic).

    Boomers may be lacking in children and grandchildren. They may be lacking in religious faith. The absence these things makes death seem to have higher stakes than otherwise. Were you in their shoes, how would you feel?

  174. @Anonymous
    @Corvinus

    How many masks are you wearing btw? Three is now "good form." You want to get a jump on the quad-masking, all the top woke men on campus are doing it

    Replies: @Corvinus

    I prefer a ski mask. That way if I get arrested at the latest Antifa rally I won’t get charged with non-compliance.

  175. @SunBakedSuburb
    @Corvinus

    "As a result, healthy skepticism has been replaced by a Trump induced intellectual sterility"

    Not sure if "sterility" is the accurate descriptive for Trump people especially in light of his 1/6 tactical error which gifted more political power to leftist-authoritarians. The state of mind of Trump's people which includes members of my deplorably white family can be best described as pudding-brained.

    How about you and your ilk? Aren't you the least bit skeptical of the liberal-left embrace of a highly-politicized DOJ/FBI which now partially function as a political police for the Democratic Party? The American liberal-left challenged the power of the FBI when Hoover used it as a gestapo to go after those who opposed Establishment overreach. The liberal-left spectrum has been totally hijacked by racist black ladies and men with uteruses; complete mass-delusion on your end. Noxious creatures you and your ilk, totally unlovable; unlike the Trump pudding heads most of whom are salt-of-the-earth types.

    Replies: @anon, @Corvinus

    “How about you and your ilk? Aren’t you the least bit skeptical of the liberal-left embrace of a highly-politicized DOJ/FBI which now partially function as a political police for the Democratic Party?”

    Except that’s not an accurate description. See, you are only proving my point here.

    “The American liberal-left challenged the power of the FBI when Hoover used it as a gestapo to go after those who opposed Establishment overreach.”

    Indeed.

    “The liberal-left spectrum has been totally hijacked by racist black ladies and men with uteruses; complete mass-delusion on your end.”

    You mean the Coalition of the Left Fringe. We normies are not in lock step, as iSteve and the Alt Right makes it appear.

    “Noxious creatures you and your ilk, totally unlovable; unlike the Trump pudding heads most of whom are salt-of-the-earth types.”

    Your over the top rhetoric once again shows your intellectual sterility. Confirmation bias is your master, hoss.

    • Replies: @Clyde
    @Corvinus

    Clown and buffoon for the 119th time.

    Replies: @Corvinus

  176. @HA
    @Mike Tre

    "Again how many access deaths are the result of the lockdowns (deaths of despair – or sick people made afraid to seek treatment?)"


    It would be pretty weird if "deaths of despair" spiked up a couple of hundred thousand (if that's what you're getting at), even as suicides declined. Yes, that's right -- suicides DECLINED in 2020.

    And while it's evidently true that a bunch of the commentators here can't wait till grandma and grandpa just die off already and stop causing so much trouble for the rest of us, for those who aren't psychopaths, it's watching grandma and grandpa die from COVID (not exactly an easy way to go) that's really likely to jack up the despair. But no, let's overlook that and just blame it all on the lockdowns because they're the "greatest seizure of liberties ever visited among the American population", even more than forced conscription, or the IRS, or Prohibition, or anything else that this government has ever done, since unlike all those other impositions, this one affected you personally and you're all that really matters in this universe.

    Replies: @Peterike, @Mike Tre, @NotNormAgain

    And right on cue, one of the Big Pharma sock puppets arrives to perform damage control, with support from the equally notorious covid street preacher utu.

    I didn’t read it HA, because you are a waste of time. You should stick to peddling oxycontin.

    • Agree: Achmed E. Newman
    • Replies: @HA
    @Mike Tre

    "I didn’t read it..."

    Big surprise, there. Not reading iis basically your jam.

  177. @Jack D

    Or it could be that deaths were well distributed among people with, say, 20 years expected life
     
    This is statistically impossible. Last time I looked, the average age of a Covid victim was around 80 and live expectancy at 80 in the US is around 8 years. This is not accounting for the fact that people who die of Covid are in worse health than average.

    However, since the Covid deaths were all concentrated in 1 year while the dip in future deaths due to culling the herd of the weakest will be spread out among several years, it's quite possible that the future dip will be too small to be noticeable . Rather than one way below average year to make up for the WAY above average year of 2020, each year from 2021 to 2025, say, will be SLIGHTLY below average, possible even getting completely lost in the statistical noise if, for example, the flu makes a comeback because people have stopped masking.

    Replies: @AnotherDad

    This is statistically impossible. Last time I looked, the average age of a Covid victim was around 80 and live expectancy at 80 in the US is around 8 years. This is not accounting for the fact that people who die of Covid are in worse health than average.

    However, since the Covid deaths were all concentrated in 1 year while the dip in future deaths due to culling the herd of the weakest will be spread out among several years, it’s quite possible that the future dip will be too small to be noticeable .

    I think this is basically right Jack.

    My estimate for a median Xi virus fatality was something like 4 years of life and maybe 1 QALY. (The only Xi fatality i know personally–my uncle–i’d guess lost about a year–maybe two or three, but he wasn’t going to get to 100–and zero QALYs.)

    Last spring i thought we would see noticeably lower deaths (adjusting for the slow tick up as the boomers age–larger cohorts in the death zone) in the next few years.

    Not so sure anymore. It’s clear the Xi virus’s nasty vascular attack leaves a number of people with longer term issues. The study of VA cases shows significantly higher mortality of Covid cases months out. I’m skeptical of big problems with the vaccine, but every vax has issues and the spike protein is a nasty fellow.

    Spitballing … (the US, i’m an American, others can spitball their nations)
    — 100m got the bug — say 5m have some long term lingering issue that lowers life expectancy a bit
    — 200m get the vax — say 1m have some sort of long term issue from it that lowers life expectancy a smidgen
    …. these effects could wash away the Xi virus premature cull.

    ~~~

    The big take home from this whole deal … big tempest in a teapot.

    But both ways. The early cull of geezers … not significant. (Even if had continued a modest dent in the improvement in life expectancy that have occurred during my life.) And the lockdowns and stuff … big deal. (Lockdowns were stupid, but if a lockdown “wrecked your life” … look in the mirror.)

    Twenty five years from now this will all have mattered not one whit. Dwarfed by even one year of the demographic debacle we are getting from immigration.

    It’s stunning even on this blog people rant on about covid and the covid reaction and Iraq and Israel and spending and affirmative action and black crime–which granted makes our cities suck–and this and that and the other thing.

    But the only things that have any significance in changing the quality of life that our children and grandchildren will experience–the basic trajectory of the nation–are
    A) immigration
    B) collapsed and dysgenic fertility.

    Covid–a trivial unimportant blip.

    • Replies: @anonymous
    @AnotherDad


    It’s stunning even on this blog people rant on about covid and the covid reaction and Iraq and Israel and spending and affirmative action and black crime–which granted makes our cities suck–and this and that and the other thing.

    But the only things that have any significance in changing the quality of life that our children and grandchildren will experience–the basic trajectory of the nation–are
    A) immigration
    B) collapsed and dysgenic fertility.
     
    A and B are of critical, paramount importance, but a few of the other issues you mention above them are contributing factors and therefore worth engaging.

    —Covid and covid reaction definitely are not. In fact, to the extent they draw power and influence and people away from the major coastal cities, that would be salutary. Cities and fertility sinks and major drivers of dysgenics.

    —Black crime is. Not so much because it makes cities suck (see above), but because the false narratives around it are destroying the White community.

    —Israel is. Because understanding Israel helps give the lie to the Jewish propaganda that is being used to keep our borders wide open to foreign nations. In addition, the Zionist project is the cause of America’s conflicts in the Middle East. We have mortgaged our financial future for these wars. But they have two other harmful effects. They kill or maim our best and brightest, or, at the least take them away from time with family or time starting families. (Dysgenic.) The wars also serve to distract the populace from the immigration invasion.

    —Iraq is. Ties into Israel. See above.

    —Affirmative action is. It obfuscates reality and allows actors to avoid the real costs of their actions and decisions. It squeezes out members of the White community, making it more difficult for them to form families. It raises the costs of immigration to the historic American nation.
  178. Jon says:
    @Barack Obama's secret Unz account
    @Almost Missouri


    Still, one could equally well argue that the most likely source of non-covid excess deaths: i.e. deaths from ordinary non-contagious cardio-pulmonary conditions, which even in covid times were a larger source of deaths than covid, are also most likely to go untreated—and therefore become fatal—in the same times and places as covid case surges occur, as people avoid (or public officials deter) ordinary medical treatment they would otherwise seek.
     
    Suppose NPIs have killed lots of people. Let's divide those deaths into two categories, acute and chronic. (Or immediate and delayed.) NPIs rise and fall largely in conjunction with COVID cases, ergo acute NPI deaths will spike along with cases: e.g. heart attacks, as you say, or perhaps bacterial/viral/fungal pneumonias caused by breathing thru a dirty mask all day.

    Chronic NPI deaths however will not follow the lockdown arcs, but rather their own longer arc: we might see them rising steadily for several years before beginning to decline. (This will be hard to detect with all the other fluctuations in the death rate.) This might explain why excess deaths remained higher than expected even outside of the three waves, and why the third wave was biggest and longest-lasting: maybe longer-gestating medical problems, like cancer or diabetes, had started killing people because they weren't treated earlier in the year. Remember, supposedly it's typical for a pandemic virus to kill less with each wave, as prior immunity has built up - and yet the third wave is bigger than the first, and takes much longer to subside.

    Replies: @Jon

    bacterial/viral/fungal pneumonias caused by breathing thru a dirty mask all day.

    This isn’t a thing. I’ve been in Korea during the pandemic – everyone is masked, all day, every day. There is no spike in bacterial/viral/fungal pneumonias. And before you try to say that all of those deaths were probably just shifted to the COVID death category, look at Korea’s death toll for the pandemic. It’s been very low.

    • Replies: @Barack Obama's secret Unz account
    @Jon

    Korea still has an uptick in excess deaths that need explaining. If not COVID, then what?

    I don't consider the mask-caused bacterial/viral/fungal pneumonia hypothesis to be disproven here. (Or proven.) If it were fungal, for instance, that would likely be very localised (and might explain international variation in death rates); Korea could have been spared.

    There's also the possibility - perhaps, as someone resident in or visiting Korea, you can confirm - that Koreans mask widely during flu seasons anyway - so mask-caused pneumonias in 2020 would not be "excess" deaths, because they would also have occurred in previous years. This would especially be the case if mask-caused pneumonias were predominantly viral.

    I hope trained boffins are studying this possibility further.

  179. (There have been practically zero flu deaths in 2021 so far, which has helped.)

    Washington state had zero flu deaths in the 2020-2021 season which is a statistical impossibility IMHO. Basically the Covid cured the common cold……a real WTF if you ask me.

    Something is rotten here and I don’t claim to know what or why but there was no reason to shut down the whole fucking world.

  180. ‘…An interesting question is whether total deaths will fall below the long-term trend line as the pandemic recedes, assuming it continues to recede (but stranger things have happened over the last 17 months, so the current optimistic trend could change)…

    This actually is intellectually the most germane question. Less than normal mortality over the next year or so would suggest the virus merely grabbed the low-hanging fruit — people who were about to die anyway. If mortality going forward merely returns to normal, the implication is that the virus killed many people who otherwise would have survived for years to come.

    The other question — and one that I continue to remain very skeptical about — is what difference did all our precautions make? Did mandating masks and closing bowling alleys really save lives or was it just the pseudo-scientific equivalent of sacrificing chickens? After all, no one questions that volcanos erupt. What’s debatable is whether casting virgins into them makes a difference.

    • Replies: @Steve Sailer
    @Colin Wright

    Crowded indoor fun with lots of talking, laughing and singing appears to have been what was the main spreader. Almost anything outdoors was much less of a problem.

    Replies: @Hernan Pizzaro del Blanco

    , @Stan D Mute
    @Colin Wright

    You’re almost there. Now, imagine that 2020 was a typical average ‘bad’ flu year and we had a hundred thousand or more extra weak and infirm kick off. Barely newsworthy right? Since when are nursing home deaths noticed? Ripping off “Greatest Generation” geezers has been the paradigm for Boomers since the 1980’s - we most certainly ignore how/where/why (and especially what happened to the money). Suddenly we are counting?

    Silence the propaganda cacaphony* and was 2020 different from any other year? Only insofar as authoritarian government edicts.

    *(sic very intentional)

    , @Mr. Anon
    @Colin Wright


    Did mandating masks and closing bowling alleys really save lives or was it just the pseudo-scientific equivalent of sacrificing chickens? After all, no one questions that volcanos erupt. What’s debatable is whether casting virgins into them makes a difference.
     
    C'mon Colin, don't tell us that you're one of those anti-human-sacrificers!

    Replies: @Colin Wright

    , @Anon
    @Colin Wright

    Does anyone remember Italy, or has that been memory holed? How about the drone video of backhoes making mass graves on an island off of New York City so the refrigerated trailers full of corpses could be Peterbilted over to the dock for water transport?

    I live in Japan, and as of now, May 2021, I cannot be admitted to a hospital for most of the things I would have been able to a couple of years ago.

    The idea that Covid19 could have been ignored and treated like the flu without flu shots implies that you're OK with leaving the "low-hanging fruit" in their residences to die there without impacting medical services for the rest of us, with the additional assumption that an entire industry of residential corpse disposal could be created from scratch for the duration, not to mention a domicilary solution for those living with pre-corpses and corpses to get away from them for a while. And you'd need some sort of mass psychological counseling to convince those irrational people who are not low-hanging fruit but for some weird reason still don't want to get Covid19 to chill out.

    Replies: @Colin Wright

  181. @Steve Sailer
    @Bill Jones

    Nah, just look at the total number of deaths each week.

    I realize it's hard to admit you were wrong, but it's good for the soul.

    Replies: @Hernan Pizzaro del Blanco, @Desiderius, @Sub, @Citizen of a Silly Country, @Travis, @Mr. Anon, @Anthony Aaron, @Marquis, @anon, @Scott Locklin, @Corvinus

    Good lord. You would think someone as wrong and ill informed as you on this subject would just run from it. Even once the fear has subsided (has it?) you still can’t get your head around it.

  182. anonymous[534] • Disclaimer says:
    @AnotherDad
    @Jack D


    This is statistically impossible. Last time I looked, the average age of a Covid victim was around 80 and live expectancy at 80 in the US is around 8 years. This is not accounting for the fact that people who die of Covid are in worse health than average.

    However, since the Covid deaths were all concentrated in 1 year while the dip in future deaths due to culling the herd of the weakest will be spread out among several years, it’s quite possible that the future dip will be too small to be noticeable .
     

    I think this is basically right Jack.

    My estimate for a median Xi virus fatality was something like 4 years of life and maybe 1 QALY. (The only Xi fatality i know personally--my uncle--i'd guess lost about a year--maybe two or three, but he wasn't going to get to 100--and zero QALYs.)

    Last spring i thought we would see noticeably lower deaths (adjusting for the slow tick up as the boomers age--larger cohorts in the death zone) in the next few years.

    Not so sure anymore. It's clear the Xi virus's nasty vascular attack leaves a number of people with longer term issues. The study of VA cases shows significantly higher mortality of Covid cases months out. I'm skeptical of big problems with the vaccine, but every vax has issues and the spike protein is a nasty fellow.

    Spitballing ... (the US, i'm an American, others can spitball their nations)
    -- 100m got the bug -- say 5m have some long term lingering issue that lowers life expectancy a bit
    -- 200m get the vax -- say 1m have some sort of long term issue from it that lowers life expectancy a smidgen
    .... these effects could wash away the Xi virus premature cull.

    ~~~

    The big take home from this whole deal ... big tempest in a teapot.

    But both ways. The early cull of geezers ... not significant. (Even if had continued a modest dent in the improvement in life expectancy that have occurred during my life.) And the lockdowns and stuff ... big deal. (Lockdowns were stupid, but if a lockdown "wrecked your life" ... look in the mirror.)

    Twenty five years from now this will all have mattered not one whit. Dwarfed by even one year of the demographic debacle we are getting from immigration.

    It's stunning even on this blog people rant on about covid and the covid reaction and Iraq and Israel and spending and affirmative action and black crime--which granted makes our cities suck--and this and that and the other thing.

    But the only things that have any significance in changing the quality of life that our children and grandchildren will experience--the basic trajectory of the nation--are
    A) immigration
    B) collapsed and dysgenic fertility.

    Covid--a trivial unimportant blip.

    Replies: @anonymous

    It’s stunning even on this blog people rant on about covid and the covid reaction and Iraq and Israel and spending and affirmative action and black crime–which granted makes our cities suck–and this and that and the other thing.

    But the only things that have any significance in changing the quality of life that our children and grandchildren will experience–the basic trajectory of the nation–are
    A) immigration
    B) collapsed and dysgenic fertility.

    A and B are of critical, paramount importance, but a few of the other issues you mention above them are contributing factors and therefore worth engaging.

    —Covid and covid reaction definitely are not. In fact, to the extent they draw power and influence and people away from the major coastal cities, that would be salutary. Cities and fertility sinks and major drivers of dysgenics.

    —Black crime is. Not so much because it makes cities suck (see above), but because the false narratives around it are destroying the White community.

    —Israel is. Because understanding Israel helps give the lie to the Jewish propaganda that is being used to keep our borders wide open to foreign nations. In addition, the Zionist project is the cause of America’s conflicts in the Middle East. We have mortgaged our financial future for these wars. But they have two other harmful effects. They kill or maim our best and brightest, or, at the least take them away from time with family or time starting families. (Dysgenic.) The wars also serve to distract the populace from the immigration invasion.

    —Iraq is. Ties into Israel. See above.

    —Affirmative action is. It obfuscates reality and allows actors to avoid the real costs of their actions and decisions. It squeezes out members of the White community, making it more difficult for them to form families. It raises the costs of immigration to the historic American nation.

  183. “As you can see, the pandemic killed a whole bunch of people”

    Retarded chemo-faggot sez wot?!

  184. The study of VA cases shows significantly higher mortality of Covid cases months out.

    If you read it carefully, they have a gradient. “Cases” that never required hospitalization: not much trouble. Hospitalization: some trouble. Intensive care: much trouble. Ventilator: get your effects in order.

    But you are long-term right, except that COVID has accelerated collapsing fertility by making housing more expensive. And by transferring wealth from young healthy people who might have children to sicker older people who won’t.

    • Replies: @anonymous
    @TomSchmidt


    But you are long-term right, except that COVID has accelerated collapsing fertility by making housing more expensive.
     
    How has Covid made housing more expensive?

    Replies: @TomSchmidt, @J.Ross

    , @AnotherDad
    @TomSchmidt


    But you are long-term right, except that COVID has accelerated collapsing fertility by making housing more expensive. And by transferring wealth from young healthy people who might have children to sicker older people who won’t.
     
    I do think the lockdown nonsense may well kill more babies from being born than it kills old fogies off.

    Which--speaking as an old fogey nationalist--is sad. I'd rather die younger with more grandchildren than dodder off into a long long twilight with fewer. What's important is who/what lives on after me--i've already done "the good stuff".

    ~~

    That said, the actual effects of covid--the virus--on housing should be fertility positive. I.e. increasing supply by killing off some current occupants. It's not the Black Death ... but it has freed up some housing.

    What's driving up housing costs is
    a) the lockdowns
    -- increasing lumber prices
    -- driving people out of blue state hell holes to red state freedom; (my Florida whitetopia has gone fricking nuts, my house is worth a couple hundred thousand more just this year)

    but much more importantly
    b) money printing
    --the flood of money and basement interest rates have sent prices soaring.


    I'm a broken record, but we need policies that focus on the nation's future--affordable family formation:
    -- end immigration (super-charging job and housing availability)
    -- kill off taxation of families with children (eugenically, deductions only not welfare)
    -- voucher off public education
    -- competency tests in lieu of costly college credentialism

    It's not a hard problem to make middle class family life affordable and pleasant again. It's just that we have a nasty "elite"--whose driving ethos is looting--hostile to flyover white-gentiles actually having children and living their lives according to their traditional culture in their traditional nation.

    Replies: @Jonathan Mason, @TomSchmidt

  185. anon[225] • Disclaimer says:
    @Steve Sailer
    @Bill Jones

    Nah, just look at the total number of deaths each week.

    I realize it's hard to admit you were wrong, but it's good for the soul.

    Replies: @Hernan Pizzaro del Blanco, @Desiderius, @Sub, @Citizen of a Silly Country, @Travis, @Mr. Anon, @Anthony Aaron, @Marquis, @anon, @Scott Locklin, @Corvinus

    We know a nurse who says next year’s flu season, minus the social distancing, constant hand sanitizing, masks, and surface disinfectants, will see the real aim of the rna-spike protien in the American vaccines vs. the traditional vaccines that China and Russia have used.
    The nurse told us it will begin in late November after Thanksgiving and begin in earnest around Christmas. He means deaths. Lots of them. Pneumonia and flu.

    I hope he is wrong. He is a RN surgical nurse.

    • Replies: @anonymous
    @anon


    The nurse told us it will begin in late November after Thanksgiving and begin in earnest around Christmas. He means deaths. Lots of them. Pneumonia and flu.
     
    Why?

    Replies: @anon

  186. @Colin Wright
    '...An interesting question is whether total deaths will fall below the long-term trend line as the pandemic recedes, assuming it continues to recede (but stranger things have happened over the last 17 months, so the current optimistic trend could change)...

    This actually is intellectually the most germane question. Less than normal mortality over the next year or so would suggest the virus merely grabbed the low-hanging fruit -- people who were about to die anyway. If mortality going forward merely returns to normal, the implication is that the virus killed many people who otherwise would have survived for years to come.

    The other question -- and one that I continue to remain very skeptical about -- is what difference did all our precautions make? Did mandating masks and closing bowling alleys really save lives or was it just the pseudo-scientific equivalent of sacrificing chickens? After all, no one questions that volcanos erupt. What's debatable is whether casting virgins into them makes a difference.

    Replies: @Steve Sailer, @Stan D Mute, @Mr. Anon, @Anon

    Crowded indoor fun with lots of talking, laughing and singing appears to have been what was the main spreader. Almost anything outdoors was much less of a problem.

    • Replies: @Hernan Pizzaro del Blanco
    @Steve Sailer

    There was never any evidence of coronavirus spreading outside. Yet they still closed the beaches , parks and playgrounds and when they opened the parks still required people to wear worthless masks.

  187. @HA
    @Mike Tre

    "Again how many access deaths are the result of the lockdowns (deaths of despair – or sick people made afraid to seek treatment?)"


    It would be pretty weird if "deaths of despair" spiked up a couple of hundred thousand (if that's what you're getting at), even as suicides declined. Yes, that's right -- suicides DECLINED in 2020.

    And while it's evidently true that a bunch of the commentators here can't wait till grandma and grandpa just die off already and stop causing so much trouble for the rest of us, for those who aren't psychopaths, it's watching grandma and grandpa die from COVID (not exactly an easy way to go) that's really likely to jack up the despair. But no, let's overlook that and just blame it all on the lockdowns because they're the "greatest seizure of liberties ever visited among the American population", even more than forced conscription, or the IRS, or Prohibition, or anything else that this government has ever done, since unlike all those other impositions, this one affected you personally and you're all that really matters in this universe.

    Replies: @Peterike, @Mike Tre, @NotNormAgain

    Plot twist, it is exactly you and ur ilk who ARE the psychopaths

  188. @Mike Tre
    @HA

    And right on cue, one of the Big Pharma sock puppets arrives to perform damage control, with support from the equally notorious covid street preacher utu.

    I didn't read it HA, because you are a waste of time. You should stick to peddling oxycontin.

    Replies: @HA

    “I didn’t read it…”

    Big surprise, there. Not reading iis basically your jam.

  189. Oh Yay!

    Government officials tell me that I am finally safe again.

    Steve, from one cancer survivor to another, from one honkie cracker to another, from one adopted bastard to another, from one slightly above average intellect to a greater one, I implore you.

    Wake the fuck up.

    It’s coincidental that both Gates & Fauci imploded in the same week? That “case” rates and “related death” rates cratered immediately thereafter?

    You are in charge of noticing. You can’t retire yet.

    You and Unz are about the only Boomers that are worth the price of the air you breathe. We need you!

    • Replies: @Kaz
    @Stan D Mute

    Case and death rates cratered in Israel way before that, we already had confirmation the vaccine worked.

    America is just repeating that pattern.. In a less dramatic way since we have a large cohort of anti-vaxxers..

  190. @Mr. Anon
    Why does the first peak in March/April of 2020 look different than the subsequent two peaks? It has an asymmetric shape with a sharp rise, rather like a binomial distribution, instead of the more symmetric gaussian shape the other two bumps have. If memory serves, a gaussian distribution is the large number limit of a binomial distribution, when the abscissa is not limited to positive numbers (or it's far enough away from the origin as to not matter), so one might expect the first bump to have that shape if it represented a small sample size. But it doesn't; it represents a lot of deaths (a relatively large area under the curve).

    Replies: @Steve Sailer

    Spring of 2020 was mostly in one place: Greater New York City. The summer 2020 wave was mostly in hot weather sunbelt places where people stay inside for the air conditioning. The third wave started in the Dakotas and spread south and out as it got too cold to go outdoors.

    • Replies: @Mr. Anon
    @Steve Sailer


    Spring of 2020 was mostly in one place: Greater New York City.
     
    But how does that explain the shape of the first peak? That very sudden onset? As an international travel hub, NYC was probably getting hosed down with 'Rona almost as soon as it got out of China.

    Replies: @Steve Sailer

  191. HA says:
    @Peterike
    @HA

    “ And while it’s evidently true that a bunch of the commentators here can’t wait till grandma and grandpa just die off already and stop causing so much trouble for the rest of us, for those who aren’t psychopaths,”

    You haven’t budged an inch from your maudlin grandstanding I see. What’s it been now, a year plus of you glorying in your own stupendous moral purity?

    To see a true psychopath, look in the mirror.

    Replies: @HA

    “To see a true psychopath, look in the mirror.”

    Ah yes, lessons in psychopathy from someone who repeatedly wants to remind us that “500,000 deaths is a meaningless blip”.

    Despite what you may think of your psychological acumen (and it could hardly be worse than your abysmal track record on COVID), your evident first-hand experience with being a psychopath does not qualify you as an expert in diagnosing it.

  192. anonymous[390] • Disclaimer says:
    @anon
    @Steve Sailer

    We know a nurse who says next year's flu season, minus the social distancing, constant hand sanitizing, masks, and surface disinfectants, will see the real aim of the rna-spike protien in the American vaccines vs. the traditional vaccines that China and Russia have used.
    The nurse told us it will begin in late November after Thanksgiving and begin in earnest around Christmas. He means deaths. Lots of them. Pneumonia and flu.

    I hope he is wrong. He is a RN surgical nurse.

    Replies: @anonymous

    The nurse told us it will begin in late November after Thanksgiving and begin in earnest around Christmas. He means deaths. Lots of them. Pneumonia and flu.

    Why?

    • Replies: @anon
    @anonymous

    He thought the change in the rna or the spike protien would make the genetically modified person who took the shot (there are real vaccines for covid, but modernas and pfizers are genetic shots, not weakened forms of the virus like a traditional vaccine), would end up making the person much more liable to pnuemonia and the common flu. I didn't press as to exactly why at the microscopic level. The nurse is a very religious guy, but he is professionally competent supposedly.
    Makes ya' wonder. He thinks the non-vaccinated will be blamed by the media.

    I personally am afraid of a "leaky" vaccine scenario based on a chicken vaccine that seen inimmunized birds die because of the way a chickenvirus mutated around a particular vaccine to become more, not less, virulent.

    Im waiting at least 3 years. Wanna see if anything bad happens to the injected. Vaccines usually take 8 years to approve for humans. Effects might not be immediate. I might take traditional vaccine if one were available.

  193. @Bill
    @Citizen of a Silly Country


    For the millionth time, let’s look at what the real question around Covid was. First, nobody but loons claimed that Covid was “just the flu, bro.” It was and is a very nasty virus, though, as you have mentioned not the Black Death.
     
    That simply isn't true. Anthony Fauci was saying that it was just a bad flu through the third week of March, 2020. The entire public health clownshow was saying it was just a bad flu over roughly the same period. Several eminent members of the public health clownshow, perhaps most prominently Stanford professor and epidemiologist John Ioannidis, claimed that there would be virtually no deaths. He, in particular, maintained this lunatic position for months after it was clearly proved wrong. There were and still are a bunch of floomers, several of whom seemed like sane people to me before, hanging out in isteve land.

    People's memory is astonishingly plastic. There was a mind-boggling 180 which occurred in the third week of March, 2020 in which almost the entire public health clownshow went from "it's just the flu" to "it's the black death." Nobody seems to remember this occurring.

    As to your main point, yes, it seems right that lockdowns (as we did them) and masking were infection control theater and were a bad idea.

    Replies: @Steve Sailer, @Mike1, @Mr. Anon, @Anonymous

    We didn’t have much of a clue how it was spread until the Gangelt study was released on 4/9/20 in Germany. Everybody assumed it was spread by touch but it turned out to be spread by air during indoor fun, in the case of Gangelt a Mardi Gras-type event where everybody dressed up in lederhosen and did peasant dances on Shrove Tuesday.

    But it took for roughly ever for the Gangelt breakthrough to sink in on the minds of the public health establishment. They were still, for example, freaking out over beaches that looked crowded in telephoto shots months later.

    • Replies: @zacie
    @Steve Sailer

    It's a hopped up cold, Steve-O, you can stop the somersaults.

    , @curtis dunkel
    @Steve Sailer

    Assumed spread by touch?

    https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=mNMdg4morQs

  194. anonymous[390] • Disclaimer says:
    @TomSchmidt

    The study of VA cases shows significantly higher mortality of Covid cases months out.
     
    If you read it carefully, they have a gradient. "Cases" that never required hospitalization: not much trouble. Hospitalization: some trouble. Intensive care: much trouble. Ventilator: get your effects in order.

    But you are long-term right, except that COVID has accelerated collapsing fertility by making housing more expensive. And by transferring wealth from young healthy people who might have children to sicker older people who won't.

    Replies: @anonymous, @AnotherDad

    But you are long-term right, except that COVID has accelerated collapsing fertility by making housing more expensive.

    How has Covid made housing more expensive?

    • Replies: @TomSchmidt
    @anonymous

    It hasn't. The reaction to it has had the Fed buying $40bln monthly in MBS securities to drive interest rates to record lows, which has driven a stupendous boom in housing prices. The virus,of course, did not do that. If it were as lethal as originally assumed,in fact, it would drive down living costs as happened after the Black Death, which freed up the houses and land of 1/3rd of Europe, essentially making the surviving population 50% wealthier in land and housing.

    , @J.Ross
    @anonymous

    Materials and employees were artificially made more scarce by the lockdown but not the virus.

  195. @Colin Wright
    '...An interesting question is whether total deaths will fall below the long-term trend line as the pandemic recedes, assuming it continues to recede (but stranger things have happened over the last 17 months, so the current optimistic trend could change)...

    This actually is intellectually the most germane question. Less than normal mortality over the next year or so would suggest the virus merely grabbed the low-hanging fruit -- people who were about to die anyway. If mortality going forward merely returns to normal, the implication is that the virus killed many people who otherwise would have survived for years to come.

    The other question -- and one that I continue to remain very skeptical about -- is what difference did all our precautions make? Did mandating masks and closing bowling alleys really save lives or was it just the pseudo-scientific equivalent of sacrificing chickens? After all, no one questions that volcanos erupt. What's debatable is whether casting virgins into them makes a difference.

    Replies: @Steve Sailer, @Stan D Mute, @Mr. Anon, @Anon

    You’re almost there. Now, imagine that 2020 was a typical average ‘bad’ flu year and we had a hundred thousand or more extra weak and infirm kick off. Barely newsworthy right? Since when are nursing home deaths noticed? Ripping off “Greatest Generation” geezers has been the paradigm for Boomers since the 1980’s – we most certainly ignore how/where/why (and especially what happened to the money). Suddenly we are counting?

    Silence the propaganda cacaphony* and was 2020 different from any other year? Only insofar as authoritarian government edicts.

    *(sic very intentional)

  196. @Pop Warner
    @Steve Sailer

    Could you explain your contorted logic how the flu completely disappeared? I mean, we have been told by the experts that the flu disappeared because of masks and social distancing, but covid cases seemed to rise and fall independent of that. Not to mention we were also told that evil nazi Republicans spread the virus because they refused to wear masks. However, those evil nazi Republicans who didn't mask or social distance seemed to also be immune from the flu. So what protected antimaskers from the flu that didn't protect them from covid?

    Replies: @res, @Anonymous

    The basic idea is that countermeasures sufficient to slow COVID (R0 of say 2.5-3.0) essentially eliminate transmission of normal flu with an R0 of more like 1.8.

    • Agree: AKAHorace
    • Replies: @Mr. Anon
    @res


    The basic idea is that countermeasures sufficient to slow COVID (R0 of say 2.5-3.0) essentially eliminate transmission of normal flu with an R0 of more like 1.8.
     
    Yes, we've all heard that argument. But what about commenter Pop Warner's other point? What about regions that did not institute harsh lockdowns, and where a lot of people were not masking and not social distancing. Why was flu also suppressed there and among those people?

    Replies: @res

    , @epebble
    @res

    It will be interesting to see how the masking and social distancing lifestyle is affecting other respiratory diseases besides influenza - like measles and tuberculosis. If fear of Covid reduces opportunities for other infectious diseases, it may not be such a bad disease over all, in the long run.

  197. @Steve Sailer
    @Mr. Anon

    Spring of 2020 was mostly in one place: Greater New York City. The summer 2020 wave was mostly in hot weather sunbelt places where people stay inside for the air conditioning. The third wave started in the Dakotas and spread south and out as it got too cold to go outdoors.

    Replies: @Mr. Anon

    Spring of 2020 was mostly in one place: Greater New York City.

    But how does that explain the shape of the first peak? That very sudden onset? As an international travel hub, NYC was probably getting hosed down with ‘Rona almost as soon as it got out of China.

    • Replies: @Steve Sailer
    @Mr. Anon

    Some of it is luck. For example, San Francisco seems like a place that would have been hit hard, but it really hasn't been. Chicago is rather like NYC physically (e.g., lots of elevators and public transit), but it never had it quite as bad as NYC in spring 2020. Some of it sounds a lot like luck: e.g., Event X turned into a superspreader event but quite similar Event Y did not.

    Replies: @Mr. Anon, @Chrisnonymous

  198. @res
    @Pop Warner

    The basic idea is that countermeasures sufficient to slow COVID (R0 of say 2.5-3.0) essentially eliminate transmission of normal flu with an R0 of more like 1.8.

    Replies: @Mr. Anon, @epebble

    The basic idea is that countermeasures sufficient to slow COVID (R0 of say 2.5-3.0) essentially eliminate transmission of normal flu with an R0 of more like 1.8.

    Yes, we’ve all heard that argument. But what about commenter Pop Warner’s other point? What about regions that did not institute harsh lockdowns, and where a lot of people were not masking and not social distancing. Why was flu also suppressed there and among those people?

    • Replies: @res
    @Mr. Anon


    Yes, we’ve all heard that argument.
     
    I'd like to think that, but it really did not seem like it in this thread.


    What about regions that did not institute harsh lockdowns, and where a lot of people were not masking and not social distancing. Why was flu also suppressed there and among those people?
     
    I think even in those places people were modifying their behavior to a significant degree. You might have noticed how many things did not happen this past year (e.g. major sporting events, especially with audiences).

    To be clear, I am skeptical of the zero flu statement, but find it quite plausible that the flu was minimal this past year.

    Do you remember how the flu basically went away last year when the lockdowns started? And that was from a base where it had a foothold. This year it never even really got going.

    To reiterate, if the regions with less harsh measures still did enough not to have COVID run rampant then I find it plausible that they would see minimal flu.

    Replies: @Mr. Anon, @Chrisnonymous

  199. @Colin Wright
    '...An interesting question is whether total deaths will fall below the long-term trend line as the pandemic recedes, assuming it continues to recede (but stranger things have happened over the last 17 months, so the current optimistic trend could change)...

    This actually is intellectually the most germane question. Less than normal mortality over the next year or so would suggest the virus merely grabbed the low-hanging fruit -- people who were about to die anyway. If mortality going forward merely returns to normal, the implication is that the virus killed many people who otherwise would have survived for years to come.

    The other question -- and one that I continue to remain very skeptical about -- is what difference did all our precautions make? Did mandating masks and closing bowling alleys really save lives or was it just the pseudo-scientific equivalent of sacrificing chickens? After all, no one questions that volcanos erupt. What's debatable is whether casting virgins into them makes a difference.

    Replies: @Steve Sailer, @Stan D Mute, @Mr. Anon, @Anon

    Did mandating masks and closing bowling alleys really save lives or was it just the pseudo-scientific equivalent of sacrificing chickens? After all, no one questions that volcanos erupt. What’s debatable is whether casting virgins into them makes a difference.

    C’mon Colin, don’t tell us that you’re one of those anti-human-sacrificers!

    • Replies: @Colin Wright
    @Mr. Anon

    'C’mon Colin, don’t tell us that you’re one of those anti-human-sacrificers!'

    It would depend on precisely who was to be the sacrificee.

    I'm right out, that has to be clear.

    Replies: @Mr. Anon

  200. @res
    @Pop Warner

    The basic idea is that countermeasures sufficient to slow COVID (R0 of say 2.5-3.0) essentially eliminate transmission of normal flu with an R0 of more like 1.8.

    Replies: @Mr. Anon, @epebble

    It will be interesting to see how the masking and social distancing lifestyle is affecting other respiratory diseases besides influenza – like measles and tuberculosis. If fear of Covid reduces opportunities for other infectious diseases, it may not be such a bad disease over all, in the long run.

  201. @Steve Sailer
    @Bill

    We didn't have much of a clue how it was spread until the Gangelt study was released on 4/9/20 in Germany. Everybody assumed it was spread by touch but it turned out to be spread by air during indoor fun, in the case of Gangelt a Mardi Gras-type event where everybody dressed up in lederhosen and did peasant dances on Shrove Tuesday.

    But it took for roughly ever for the Gangelt breakthrough to sink in on the minds of the public health establishment. They were still, for example, freaking out over beaches that looked crowded in telephoto shots months later.

    Replies: @zacie, @curtis dunkel

    It’s a hopped up cold, Steve-O, you can stop the somersaults.

  202. @Jim Christian
    @Bill Jones

    How does Fauci, a federal employee of nearly 50 years, own 50 patents? The USG owns his work and those patents, one would think, just as a company would own the work and patents of THEIR employees. How does that corrupt little earthworm own even one?

    Replies: @res, @Bill Jones

    This search returns 64 matches. I did not go through them in detail, but it looks like most are assigned to the government.

    https://patents.google.com/?inventor=anthony+fauci&oq=anthony+fauci

    • Thanks: Jim Christian
  203. @Mr. Anon
    @Steve Sailer


    Spring of 2020 was mostly in one place: Greater New York City.
     
    But how does that explain the shape of the first peak? That very sudden onset? As an international travel hub, NYC was probably getting hosed down with 'Rona almost as soon as it got out of China.

    Replies: @Steve Sailer

    Some of it is luck. For example, San Francisco seems like a place that would have been hit hard, but it really hasn’t been. Chicago is rather like NYC physically (e.g., lots of elevators and public transit), but it never had it quite as bad as NYC in spring 2020. Some of it sounds a lot like luck: e.g., Event X turned into a superspreader event but quite similar Event Y did not.

    • Replies: @Mr. Anon
    @Steve Sailer

    And the shape? Perhaps it was a DASER-like phenomenon, and NYC and environs had a population inversion of people who were just primed to die from COVID. When that first case came through, it just set them all off. Death Amplification by Stimulated Exhalation of 'Rona.

    , @Chrisnonymous
    @Steve Sailer

    When I commented a year ago that it was probably not a coincidence that Italy and New York City were two places famous for their gregariousness and also hard hit, no one noticed. But a year later, we now define dangerous events as those in which people are talking a lot and loudly.

    Geography is just extended circumstance. Combined with the math of duplication, I think it could explain a lot.

    The loud talker effect probably has significance in other places as well. For example, commenter utu kept claiming all last year that part of Japan's lack of public transport spread was social distancing and masking even though Japanese trains are packed shoulder to shoulder and throughout much of the year prior to last October Japanese mask compliance was actually low. However, one thing that is true is that Japanese don't talk on trains much, and they talk on their phones on the train even less, and they never have the NYC phenomenon of people getting on the train and yelling at others randomly.

    Regarding Unz's claim that Iran's outbreak must have been caused by the CIA because it was so bad, I have no knowledge of Persian language, but I wouldn't be surprised to learn that Iranians are also a gregarious bunch.

    Replies: @Travis

  204. @Interferon
    Has anyone added up all the excess deaths and then divided by the 'official' Covid death count to figure out the scalar we should multiply the official numbers by to get the real Covid death count?

    Just eyeballing it, it looks like around 400,000. The official death count so far is 600,000.

    So I guess it would be a scalar of about 0.66

    What say you, iSteve?

    Replies: @Steve Sailer

    I did that back in December in Taki’s Magazine. What I found was that official covid deaths for the first wave were understated. There had been quite a few more excess deaths than official covid deaths. Presumably, they missed many covid-related deaths before they were familiar with it. After the spring, however, the excess deaths and covid deaths were in pretty close synch.

    • Thanks: Jim Christian
    • Replies: @Interferon
    @Steve Sailer

    Interesting...
    So those reports of people falling off ladders and having the cause of death recorded as 'Covid' were rare anomalies then.

  205. @Jon
    @Barack Obama's secret Unz account


    bacterial/viral/fungal pneumonias caused by breathing thru a dirty mask all day.
     
    This isn't a thing. I've been in Korea during the pandemic - everyone is masked, all day, every day. There is no spike in bacterial/viral/fungal pneumonias. And before you try to say that all of those deaths were probably just shifted to the COVID death category, look at Korea's death toll for the pandemic. It's been very low.

    Replies: @Barack Obama's secret Unz account

    Korea still has an uptick in excess deaths that need explaining. If not COVID, then what?

    I don’t consider the mask-caused bacterial/viral/fungal pneumonia hypothesis to be disproven here. (Or proven.) If it were fungal, for instance, that would likely be very localised (and might explain international variation in death rates); Korea could have been spared.

    There’s also the possibility – perhaps, as someone resident in or visiting Korea, you can confirm – that Koreans mask widely during flu seasons anyway – so mask-caused pneumonias in 2020 would not be “excess” deaths, because they would also have occurred in previous years. This would especially be the case if mask-caused pneumonias were predominantly viral.

    I hope trained boffins are studying this possibility further.

  206. res says:
    @Mr. Anon
    @res


    The basic idea is that countermeasures sufficient to slow COVID (R0 of say 2.5-3.0) essentially eliminate transmission of normal flu with an R0 of more like 1.8.
     
    Yes, we've all heard that argument. But what about commenter Pop Warner's other point? What about regions that did not institute harsh lockdowns, and where a lot of people were not masking and not social distancing. Why was flu also suppressed there and among those people?

    Replies: @res

    Yes, we’ve all heard that argument.

    I’d like to think that, but it really did not seem like it in this thread.

    What about regions that did not institute harsh lockdowns, and where a lot of people were not masking and not social distancing. Why was flu also suppressed there and among those people?

    I think even in those places people were modifying their behavior to a significant degree. You might have noticed how many things did not happen this past year (e.g. major sporting events, especially with audiences).

    To be clear, I am skeptical of the zero flu statement, but find it quite plausible that the flu was minimal this past year.

    Do you remember how the flu basically went away last year when the lockdowns started? And that was from a base where it had a foothold. This year it never even really got going.

    To reiterate, if the regions with less harsh measures still did enough not to have COVID run rampant then I find it plausible that they would see minimal flu.

    • Replies: @Mr. Anon
    @res


    Do you remember how the flu basically went away last year when the lockdowns started? And that was from a base where it had a foothold. This year it never even really got going.
     
    It is of course possible that a lot of hospitals and clinics just stopped testing for Flu too. As COVID has a lot of the same symptoms, they might have just tested for that. I'm not the first to speculate that a lot of Flu cases just got rolled up as COVID.

    The last 16 months has taught me to not trust doctors and - especially - public health officials very much. It's not that I think they are all malevolent. But - you know what they say - what do you call a guy who graduates from medical school at the bottom of his class? Doctor.
    , @Chrisnonymous
    @res

    The annual flu usually starts in Asia and spreads worldwide....


    The H3N2 subtype causes the most disease each year. Genetic sequencing shows that from 2000 to 2010, 87 percent of the most successful, globally-spreading strains of H3N2 originated in east, south and southeast Asia.
    http://www.uchicagomedicine.org/forefront/biological-sciences-articles/where-does-the-flu-come-from-every-year

     

    ...so I think it is at least a plausible hypothesis that needs to be disproved that the lack of 2020-21 flu season was due largely to lack of international travel and not to lockdowns and masking.
  207. @Anthony Aaron
    Maybe those 'excess deaths' as you call them are just the results of petty dictators in government across the US imposing restrictions that caused millions to lose jobs … to be forbidden to go to school in person … to live lives other than of 'quiet desperation' … 

    No … maybe -- LIKELY -- those 'excess deaths' are the drug overdoses and suicides and missed surgeries and other medical treatments due to a fake pandemic that was pushed by TheFauci and BigPharma and Bill from the Gates and the WEF and the other likely suspects who will gain from 'the great reset'.

    Replies: @Steve Sailer, @HA

    I tested for that back in December using the first two waves:

    https://www.takimag.com/article/lets-be-over-and-done-in-21/

    You’d expect total excess deaths minus official covid deaths to build up over time: e.g., somebody is too scared to to the doctor to get that lump checked out. But there wasn’t much evidence of that yet through the end of September. Of course, in the long run, it almost has to happen due to less preventative health care and the like.

    Instead, the one time there were a lot more excess deaths than official covid deaths was March and April: i.e., when there were few covid tests yet, suggesting the official death count from covid was understated during the first wave.

  208. @Mr. Anon
    @Colin Wright


    Did mandating masks and closing bowling alleys really save lives or was it just the pseudo-scientific equivalent of sacrificing chickens? After all, no one questions that volcanos erupt. What’s debatable is whether casting virgins into them makes a difference.
     
    C'mon Colin, don't tell us that you're one of those anti-human-sacrificers!

    Replies: @Colin Wright

    ‘C’mon Colin, don’t tell us that you’re one of those anti-human-sacrificers!’

    It would depend on precisely who was to be the sacrificee.

    I’m right out, that has to be clear.

    • Replies: @Mr. Anon
    @Colin Wright


    It would depend on precisely who was to be the sacrificee.

    I’m right out, that has to be clear.
     
    Fair point. Hey, I think you've got the stuff to be governor of Michigan.

    Replies: @Colin Wright

  209. @Buzz Mohawk
    @Jack D


    If a booster is needed, that’s not the end of the world – people get flu shots every year.
     
    My question to you, Jack, is why do you get a flu shot every year?

    As I've said, I have never had a flu shot, and I can't remember the last time I had the flu, bro.

    What I do remember is when the flu shot was invented. I was a younger man then, and in my naive way, I thought there would be one shot for the flu and that was it. I didn't bother to get one, but lo-and-behold, there has been a campaign every year since to get a flu shot, and there has been a new flu shot every year.

    My father used to bug me about it. "Did you get a flu shot?" No Dad. "Why not? You really should get the flu shot." And on and on for years.

    Back to my question. If the flu, bro, is not that lethal, then why does everybody, like you I assume, get a flu shot? Is it because you just hate getting sick? I understand that, but that's an inconvenience. Logic again: If COVID-19 is even worse than the flu, then the flu is mild in comparison. (I am willing to admit that.) Okay, so, why do you get a stupid shot every year for a mild illness? (An illness I haven't had in many years, without a shot, BTW.)

    Look, all of this is well-intended, at least among people like you and Steve Sailer, but isn't it usually better to let nature do a job man isn't cut out for? I don't know it, but I suspect that my own immune system is naturally stronger and far superior to yours now, simply because it has been successfully killing invaders for years and years without outside aid. If we had let SARS-CoV-2 run its course, there would be more people like me and humans would be stronger, but no, now we have a world full of innoculated sheep who will need a shot every year. Great acomplishment!

    NOTE: I may not know what I am talking about. LOL Have a nice day and stay healthy.

    Replies: @Jonathan Mason, @Jack D, @Wilkey, @Western

    I got the Covid vaccine because my dad kept bugging me about it. I only started to get the flu shot for the same reason. The last time I could even have been sick enough to maybe have the flu was 30 years ago.

    It’s amazing how people will allow strangers to inject them with something. I had a cat scan 15 years ago and I showed up and complete strangers inject me with something and I just let them. It is kind of weird when you think about it. The same goes for food. We just let strangers in another room out of our sight make our food and we just eat it without thinking about it.

    I didn’t have any major side effects from the covid shot so far after the first dose but I regret getting it. I wouldn’t do it if I could go back. I only did it because my dad bugged me and the propaganda in the media.

    • Replies: @Anon
    @Western


    I didn’t have any major side effects from the covid shot so far after the first dose but I regret getting it.
     
    What do you regret about it?

    Replies: @Western, @Western

  210. @Thoughts
    @Sean

    Germany is pretty impoverished.

    I've been to Germany recently, don't know where I was as I wasn't driving, but the decrepitness of everything I saw was a bit surprising.

    Germans are fat, their wages are low, and their houses and smaller cities look like sh*t. Plenty of Mexicans abound...I mean Turks...

    Germany resembles Echo Park more than anything else. You'll occasionally see a hot blond teen near an H&M. Occasionally. Very occasionally.

    Replies: @but an humble craftsman, @Sean, @China Japan and Korea Bromance of Three Kingdoms

    Sadly true.

  211. @S. Anonyia
    @Buzz Mohawk

    Did the rich and powerful always live long? Maybe after industrialization.

    However...

    A lot of historical dynastic intrigue occurred (Russia in particular comes to mind) because of the tendency of monarchs to pass away in middle age before their heirs were sufficiently prepared.

    Replies: @but an humble craftsman

    Less food poisoning …

  212. @Anon
    The spread of Covid was primarily done by hospitals. Doctors and nurses were going from patient to patient, as they have done for decades, without masking and suiting up in the early stages of the epidemic, and they caused a ton of spread at this point. Crappy ventilation systems in hospitals blew viruses from room to room. Patients were placed too close together. It's quite common to have 2 patient rooms, but one person coughing with Covid would infect the other within a day. Once they started filling up the hallways due to lack of patient rooms, it was Covid Armageddon.

    A lot of the spread in nursing homes came from the simple fact that out of every 100 nursing home residents, at least 1 of them needs to make a trip to the hospital on any given day for a medical issue. That person picked up Covid in the hospital, and returned to the nursing home in the early stages of with just a cough. Then that person coughed at meals and gave it to the other residents, gave it to the careworkers, family members who came to visit, etc, and it became nursing home Armageddon. Then you had dumbasses like Cuomo making it worse by putting the Covid-infected into nursing homes.

    The money-saving habit hospitals have of shoving patients out the door as soon as possible, while they still are somewhat sick and coughing, or still weak from recent surgery and in no condition to fight off a hospital-acquired virus, meant Covid hit the community outside the hospital. If people were isolated in the hospital until absolutely cured, hospitals would not have spread the disease so relentlessly. But hospitals are too cheap to keep patients until completely cured anymore. True isolation until cured matters a lot here, but hospitals weren't doing it.

    The virus was able to spread by piggybacking on top of the medical community. The medical community handled Covid's spread very poorly in the early days, and it's the early days that matter. If you don't stop a virus immediately, it's harder to stop it once it's spread.

    Replies: @but an humble craftsman

    That would explain why (relatively) organized countries like the Netherlands, Germany or the Scandinavian countries seem to have fared a lot better than Italy or France.

  213. Sean says:
    @Thoughts
    @Sean

    Germany is pretty impoverished.

    I've been to Germany recently, don't know where I was as I wasn't driving, but the decrepitness of everything I saw was a bit surprising.

    Germans are fat, their wages are low, and their houses and smaller cities look like sh*t. Plenty of Mexicans abound...I mean Turks...

    Germany resembles Echo Park more than anything else. You'll occasionally see a hot blond teen near an H&M. Occasionally. Very occasionally.

    Replies: @but an humble craftsman, @Sean, @China Japan and Korea Bromance of Three Kingdoms

    Germans are fat, their wages are low, and their houses and smaller cities look like sh*t. Plenty of Mexicans abound…I mean Turks…

    Germans aren’t very short though they do have an underclass that drinks a lot, but compared to other advanced counties many inhabitants of Germany live well under decentralized government with excellent healthcare, while working moderate hours for quite good pay (too good hence the importation of Turks ECT). The average German does not spend time discussing /worrying about how much his house is worth or trying to add to its value. They have a less financialized system, and it is much more stable that the bubble /bankers ramp hysterical ups and interspersed with terrible crashed of US debt based free enterprise. Michael Hudson says the German banking practices gave the country an unbeatable advantage in fostering productive capacity, which was potential military power, thereby making the British position as the leading power in Europe untenable. The Germans are now very, very careful to avoid any military potential hence them phasing out nuclear power I think the country is more cooperative and high trust that other places; in the leftie book Humankind there is a bit about why the WW2 German army was so hard to beat : it was a result of their cooperativeness and comradeship. not ideology. Germany still does not have all that many immigrants compared to countries like France and Britain. Working ridiculous hours as a Uber driver or Amazon dispatcher of Chinese goods while subsisting on fast food is best hope for average inhabitant in the rest of the West

    Affluence does bring a birthrate problem, but a high birthrate brings political instability. Look at the Palestinians and Afghans. Germany gets protected at American taxpayers’ expense, and does not have a hostile country on its borders for the first time in its history. Their unions are in relatively good shape.

  214. Year – US Deaths –
    2015 – 2,712,630
    2016 – 2,744,248
    2017 – 2,813,503
    2018 – 2,839,205
    2019 – 2,892,122
    2020 – 3,358,814

    2020 had about 450,000 more deaths than 2019. During 2020, COVID-19 was listed as the underlying or contributing cause of 377,883 deaths. It seems that Steve believes this number is an under-count. Yet there is little evidence that many COVID deaths went unreported. https://www.cdc.gov/mmwr/volumes/70/wr/mm7014e1.htm

    It is sad that so many Americans died from CV, but sadder that we destroyed the economy, closed schools and businesses for no benefit. There is no evidence that the so-called lockdowns prevented the spread of COVID. Yet there is much evidence that the lockdowns did nothing to reduce the spread of coronavirus but certainly contributed to some excess deaths in 2020. If the CDC numbers are accurate we had 450,000 excess deaths in 2020 and 377,883 were attributed to COVID, so 70,000 excess deaths were due to the lockdowns and resulting social isolation and civil unrest.

    • Replies: @Bill Jones
    @Travis


    If the CDC numbers are accurate
     
    Thanks for the laugh.
  215. Anonymous[194] • Disclaimer says:

    The strong potential for neurological damage by a “vaccine” that has almost no research prior to its release is unprecedented. The fact that it’s virtually against the law to sue any of the manufacturers, even if it’s because they made a bad batch, which is going to happen, made not getting vaccinated a “no brainer” for me.

    If I take a Tylenol, and suffer horrendous effects due to a manufacturing glitch, I can sue the makers of Tylenol for millions of dollars, and if I prove my case, I win. You’re not even allowed the opportunity in the case of these “vaccines.”

    If the “vaccine” is safe, why is it virtually illegal to sue if something goes wrong, now or 10 years from now?

    Because the “vaccine” is not safe, by a long shot. Otherwise, the manufacturers would enjoy the same potential legal liability’s as the makers of Tylenol.

    You don’t need a tin foil hat to reason this out.

    BTW, there’s reasonable belief that those who were “vaccinated” could be “super-spreaders” of the protein spikes that are a feature of the “vaccines,” so if you haven’t been vaccinated, you might be well advised to wear an N95 mask around people who have recently been vaccinated, while in enclosed areas, to avoid breathing in those spikes. If it is indeed the case, you don’t want to be breathing that stuff into your lungs.

    Here’s the technical information, and myriad potential dangers of our current “vaccines” courtesy of a recently published paper by Stephanie Seneff of MIT.

    Enjoy!

    https://ijvtpr.com/index.php/IJVTPR/article/view/23/36

  216. Anon[391] • Disclaimer says:
    @Colin Wright
    '...An interesting question is whether total deaths will fall below the long-term trend line as the pandemic recedes, assuming it continues to recede (but stranger things have happened over the last 17 months, so the current optimistic trend could change)...

    This actually is intellectually the most germane question. Less than normal mortality over the next year or so would suggest the virus merely grabbed the low-hanging fruit -- people who were about to die anyway. If mortality going forward merely returns to normal, the implication is that the virus killed many people who otherwise would have survived for years to come.

    The other question -- and one that I continue to remain very skeptical about -- is what difference did all our precautions make? Did mandating masks and closing bowling alleys really save lives or was it just the pseudo-scientific equivalent of sacrificing chickens? After all, no one questions that volcanos erupt. What's debatable is whether casting virgins into them makes a difference.

    Replies: @Steve Sailer, @Stan D Mute, @Mr. Anon, @Anon

    Does anyone remember Italy, or has that been memory holed? How about the drone video of backhoes making mass graves on an island off of New York City so the refrigerated trailers full of corpses could be Peterbilted over to the dock for water transport?

    I live in Japan, and as of now, May 2021, I cannot be admitted to a hospital for most of the things I would have been able to a couple of years ago.

    The idea that Covid19 could have been ignored and treated like the flu without flu shots implies that you’re OK with leaving the “low-hanging fruit” in their residences to die there without impacting medical services for the rest of us, with the additional assumption that an entire industry of residential corpse disposal could be created from scratch for the duration, not to mention a domicilary solution for those living with pre-corpses and corpses to get away from them for a while. And you’d need some sort of mass psychological counseling to convince those irrational people who are not low-hanging fruit but for some weird reason still don’t want to get Covid19 to chill out.

    • Replies: @Colin Wright
    @Anon

    'Does anyone remember Italy, or has that been memory holed? How about the drone video of backhoes making mass graves on an island off of New York City so the refrigerated trailers full of corpses could be Peterbilted over to the dock for water transport?'

    Yes, but...


    '...Through the end of October, 2,009 New Yorkers have been buried on Hart Island in 2020, more than double last year’s total of 846...'

    New York was an outlier and even then, you're talking about an increased mortality of 1163 people. Obviously, this isn't all the dead that died in New York City from the Corona Virus -- but it really isn't a statistically significant number. New York City has a population of over eight million; it follows that about a hundred thousand people die in any year from all causes.

    So why should I remember the mass graves on Hart Island? Do I worry about the other ninety nine thousand people that died in New York City last year?

    A lot of the hysteria is built around deliberately ignoring the fact that there are a whole lot of people in the world -- and every year, a whole lot of them die. It's an unpleasant fact -- but a fact.

  217. @Corvinus
    @Hernan Pizzaro del Blanco

    For public health concerns, yes, the measures were justified.

    Replies: @Anonymous, @Bill, @Mr. Anon, @Colin Wright

    ‘For public health concerns, yes, the measures were justified.’

    You have to be impervious to the evidence to make a statement like that. Texas is running a 10% positive test rate, they lift the mask requirement –and their rate falls to 6%.

    Your position is that masks work.

    • Replies: @Mark G.
    @Colin Wright


    You have to be impervious to the evidence to make a statement like that. Texas is running a 10% positive test rate, they lift the mask requirement –and their rate falls to 6%.

    Your position is that masks work.
     
    It's fortunate that we have a more federalist system here in the U.S. and decisions could be made at a state level rather than have all decisions nationalized. If Biden and Fauci had been in charge about making the decision, the mask requirement would never have been dropped since Biden was calling the Texas governor a Neanderthal and Fauci was warning of a spike in deaths. We would have never had any evidence here showing that the masks and lockdowns were not all that effective. The same thing is true with Florida and other states that didn't cave into media panic or the doom and gloom warnings from politicians.

    From the very beginning of all this, most lockdown and mask proponents have been vehemently against letting states make their own decisions. If they really thought they were right, they should have welcomed a demonstration of it by letting a state go mask and lockdown free and then pointing to how the dire results they were predicting actually came to pass. Their desire to keep everyone in lockstep doing the same thing and their hysterical reaction when a state wanted to do something different is an indication that they were afraid of being exposed.

    Replies: @Corvinus

  218. @Steve Sailer
    @Mr. Anon

    Some of it is luck. For example, San Francisco seems like a place that would have been hit hard, but it really hasn't been. Chicago is rather like NYC physically (e.g., lots of elevators and public transit), but it never had it quite as bad as NYC in spring 2020. Some of it sounds a lot like luck: e.g., Event X turned into a superspreader event but quite similar Event Y did not.

    Replies: @Mr. Anon, @Chrisnonymous

    And the shape? Perhaps it was a DASER-like phenomenon, and NYC and environs had a population inversion of people who were just primed to die from COVID. When that first case came through, it just set them all off. Death Amplification by Stimulated Exhalation of ‘Rona.

  219. @Colin Wright
    @Mr. Anon

    'C’mon Colin, don’t tell us that you’re one of those anti-human-sacrificers!'

    It would depend on precisely who was to be the sacrificee.

    I'm right out, that has to be clear.

    Replies: @Mr. Anon

    It would depend on precisely who was to be the sacrificee.

    I’m right out, that has to be clear.

    Fair point. Hey, I think you’ve got the stuff to be governor of Michigan.

    • Replies: @Colin Wright
    @Mr. Anon

    'Fair point. Hey, I think you’ve got the stuff to be governor of Michigan.'

    Would I be required to reside in Michigan?

  220. @res
    @Mr. Anon


    Yes, we’ve all heard that argument.
     
    I'd like to think that, but it really did not seem like it in this thread.


    What about regions that did not institute harsh lockdowns, and where a lot of people were not masking and not social distancing. Why was flu also suppressed there and among those people?
     
    I think even in those places people were modifying their behavior to a significant degree. You might have noticed how many things did not happen this past year (e.g. major sporting events, especially with audiences).

    To be clear, I am skeptical of the zero flu statement, but find it quite plausible that the flu was minimal this past year.

    Do you remember how the flu basically went away last year when the lockdowns started? And that was from a base where it had a foothold. This year it never even really got going.

    To reiterate, if the regions with less harsh measures still did enough not to have COVID run rampant then I find it plausible that they would see minimal flu.

    Replies: @Mr. Anon, @Chrisnonymous

    Do you remember how the flu basically went away last year when the lockdowns started? And that was from a base where it had a foothold. This year it never even really got going.

    It is of course possible that a lot of hospitals and clinics just stopped testing for Flu too. As COVID has a lot of the same symptoms, they might have just tested for that. I’m not the first to speculate that a lot of Flu cases just got rolled up as COVID.

    The last 16 months has taught me to not trust doctors and – especially – public health officials very much. It’s not that I think they are all malevolent. But – you know what they say – what do you call a guy who graduates from medical school at the bottom of his class? Doctor.

  221. @Stan D Mute
    Oh Yay!

    Government officials tell me that I am finally safe again.

    Steve, from one cancer survivor to another, from one honkie cracker to another, from one adopted bastard to another, from one slightly above average intellect to a greater one, I implore you.

    Wake the fuck up.

    It’s coincidental that both Gates & Fauci imploded in the same week? That “case” rates and “related death” rates cratered immediately thereafter?

    You are in charge of noticing. You can’t retire yet.

    You and Unz are about the only Boomers that are worth the price of the air you breathe. We need you!

    Replies: @Kaz

    Case and death rates cratered in Israel way before that, we already had confirmation the vaccine worked.

    America is just repeating that pattern.. In a less dramatic way since we have a large cohort of anti-vaxxers..

  222. @curtis dunkel
    I too have relied upon total excess deaths as best indicator. That said, it has always appeared that risk is spread very unevenly across demographic groups and that, therefore, recommendations should be tailored to your risk category.

    For example, there seems to be little risk for those under 25 and I think it is fair to say very little risk for those who are healthy and young (see link for age excess death breakdown).

    https://www.cdc.gov/nchs/nvss/vsrr/covid19/excess_deaths.htm

    Based on these data, it seems that young people should forgo the vaccine. Is this a valid conclusion?

    Replies: @Chrisnonymous, @Ben Kurtz, @Achmed E. Newman

    There are unknown risks for fertility, as pointed out by Michelle Malkin – see “Pregnant Women: Beware of COVID Shots”, right here on the Unz Review. I don’t think any woman under 30 ought to get this vaccine. For a man 25 or under, what would the point be either? Take it or leave it, as Mr. Kurtz wrote.

    • Replies: @Jack D
    @Achmed E. Newman

    Probably if you are pregnant or planning to be pregnant in the next couple of months it would be wise to delay the vaccine just because the developing fetus is more sensitive to everything than adults. If you are not in that category, then there's no reason to avoid the vaccine. While the risk of Covid to under 25's is fairly low, it's still much greater than the risk of the vaccine by orders of magnitude. And you wouldn't want to kill your grandma, would you?

    Replies: @Achmed E. Newman

  223. @Jack D
    @Desiderius

    Right, but you did in fact go to the hospital. People who are having heart attacks or strokes and who don't call the ambulance (which you should have BTW) deserve to be Darwin Award winners. Maybe there were a few of these but as I said before, excess deaths tracked Covid outbreaks EXACTLY, city by city - this can't be due to health care avoidance which would have been more or less the same everywhere.

    Replies: @Desiderius, @Mr. Anon, @Wielgus

    Darwin Award might be too strong – people who went to hospital, sometimes for something else, seem to have contracted Covid there, in a number of cases.

    • Replies: @Mr. Anon
    @Wielgus


    Darwin Award might be too strong – people who went to hospital, sometimes for something else, seem to have contracted Covid there, in a number of cases.
     
    Probably in that communal pathogen nebulizer known as the ER waiting-room lavatory.
  224. @Steve Sailer
    @Bill

    We didn't have much of a clue how it was spread until the Gangelt study was released on 4/9/20 in Germany. Everybody assumed it was spread by touch but it turned out to be spread by air during indoor fun, in the case of Gangelt a Mardi Gras-type event where everybody dressed up in lederhosen and did peasant dances on Shrove Tuesday.

    But it took for roughly ever for the Gangelt breakthrough to sink in on the minds of the public health establishment. They were still, for example, freaking out over beaches that looked crowded in telephoto shots months later.

    Replies: @zacie, @curtis dunkel

    Assumed spread by touch?

  225. Anonymous[402] • Disclaimer says:
    @Pop Warner
    @Steve Sailer

    Could you explain your contorted logic how the flu completely disappeared? I mean, we have been told by the experts that the flu disappeared because of masks and social distancing, but covid cases seemed to rise and fall independent of that. Not to mention we were also told that evil nazi Republicans spread the virus because they refused to wear masks. However, those evil nazi Republicans who didn't mask or social distance seemed to also be immune from the flu. So what protected antimaskers from the flu that didn't protect them from covid?

    Replies: @res, @Anonymous

    How the f**k is all this so mysterious to people?

    I saw CovidCrazy coming from far away and explained it all to whomever cared to know, including locally, not anonymously. I did not lockdown or take any cautions at any moment and received tickets (in Europe) for not wearing a mask. And in NYC for 8 months I took the train daily and a mask did not touch my face for even a second.

    Yah, so here’s your flu explanation.

    Few people have immunity to covid, it travels in small doses, almost nobody who has it knows they have it so they mingle.

    The flu on the other hand has a damn hard time getting around so even small precautions will keep it from spreading.

    Plenty of people are immune to the flu. It can not spread from Reuvein to Shimon to Levi because Shimon and Levi are more or less immune to small amounts of whatever variant is around this year. Reuvein must somehow get to Naftali to find a receptive nasal cavity.

    And then he’s gotta be sharing a pillow with Naftali or be spittling into his face from 6 inches away.

    And then this delicate chain can’t have a weak link when Naftali or his protege Chushim Ben Dun simply stay home alone in bed until they aren’t sneezing oodles of germs.

    And of course the chain will be broken because if you’ve got the flu you’re unlike to be out and about spreading it and people who are in fact doing so tend to be avoided by those of us who prefer not to get sick — or to be sneezed or coughed on….

    That the f**k is why precautions were silly for Covid but are not silly for preventing the spread of really really shitty diseases like the flu.

  226. As I’ve been saying for a very long time, the novel coronavirus is neither the end of the world nor nothing. It’s a sizable problem.

    Why would you trust ANY of the federal mafia’s numbers? The only stat appearing real is the 99% recovery rate.

    Were it not for hysterical (((fake news))) no one outside of a nursing home would even know covid 19 was a thing. chink sniffles did not justify wrecking the global economy.

    One other reason to believe it’s #covidhoax: despite a few hiccups, the fedmob seemed unusually prepared for it. If this had been Black Plague 2, the cowards would’ve fled to their bunkers.

    • Thanks: Bill Jones
  227. @Achmed E. Newman
    @curtis dunkel

    There are unknown risks for fertility, as pointed out by Michelle Malkin - see "Pregnant Women: Beware of COVID Shots", right here on the Unz Review. I don't think any woman under 30 ought to get this vaccine. For a man 25 or under, what would the point be either? Take it or leave it, as Mr. Kurtz wrote.

    Replies: @Jack D

    Probably if you are pregnant or planning to be pregnant in the next couple of months it would be wise to delay the vaccine just because the developing fetus is more sensitive to everything than adults. If you are not in that category, then there’s no reason to avoid the vaccine. While the risk of Covid to under 25’s is fairly low, it’s still much greater than the risk of the vaccine by orders of magnitude. And you wouldn’t want to kill your grandma, would you?

    • Replies: @Achmed E. Newman
    @Jack D


    While the risk of Covid to under 25’s is fairly low, it’s still much greater than the risk of the vaccine by orders of magnitude.
     
    I doubt that. The risk of problems from the vaccine has some known numbers, that are small but one hell of a lot higher than previous vaccines, and then some other unknown risks. OTOH, the risk of dying from the Flu Manchu are downright minuscule if you are a young man or woman under 25.

    Show me some numbers, Jack. Oh, wait, you can't. Too many unknowns, regarding the vaccine. As for any young woman planning to get pregnant at any time in the future, well, you wouldn't want to prevent your grandma from having any grandkids, would you? (See, Grandma's already taken the vaccine.)

    Why don't you read Mrs. Malkin's article before you give me this "orders-of-magnitude" business?

    Replies: @Anonymous

  228. And what if Moderna is clearly a source of worry?

    SM 102 has been labeled as toxic or potentially dangerous:
    https://www.caymanchem.com/msdss/33474m.pdf

    Then, people started asking Cayman Chemical about SM 102, but CC refused to answer (a guy named Brad Williams) & later “answered” it.

    https://www.facebook.com/CaymanChemical/

    Then, Cayman Chemical issue a statement which, if you read it, is basically- I am washing my hands, I have nothing to do with it. They say explicitly that SM 102 is for research purposes only:

    https://www.caymanchem.com/news/sm-102-statement

    SM-102 for Research Use Only (RUO)

    Then, AP issues “clarification”, basically worthless, about toxicity of chloroform:

    https://apnews.com/article/fact-checking-339133801807

    Moderna vaccine ingredient falsely targeted as unsafe

    What the heck is this?

    I don’t need any statement by AP; I want clear announcement from Cayman Chemical and US health authorities that this substance is not dangerous (not only non-toxic).

    • Replies: @Mr. Anon
    @Bardon Kaldian

    I'm suspicious of these vaccines too, but this business about SM-102 is rooted in a misunderstanding. SM-102 is one of the lipids used to encapsulate the mRNA chain.

    From that MSDS you linked to:

    "Hazard-determining components of labeling: Chloroform"

    The product in question that the MSDS refers to is this SM-102 lipid suspended in chloroform, presumably for preservation (to keep it from getting rancid). And according to the company, this product is only for laboratory use, not clinical. If you look at the warnings, the biggest one is flammability, because chloroform is highly flammable. Whatever side-effects the Moderna vax has, I don't think one of them is spontaneous human combustion.

    I don't know how they prepare and distribute SM-102 to the vaccine manufacturers. Maybe it's shipped cold. Or maybe Moderna decants off the chloroform and there is some small residual amount in the vax (which might be a health concern). I don't know. But it's not like they are injecting people with straight chloroform.

    Replies: @Bardon Kaldian

  229. @Jack D
    @Achmed E. Newman

    Probably if you are pregnant or planning to be pregnant in the next couple of months it would be wise to delay the vaccine just because the developing fetus is more sensitive to everything than adults. If you are not in that category, then there's no reason to avoid the vaccine. While the risk of Covid to under 25's is fairly low, it's still much greater than the risk of the vaccine by orders of magnitude. And you wouldn't want to kill your grandma, would you?

    Replies: @Achmed E. Newman

    While the risk of Covid to under 25’s is fairly low, it’s still much greater than the risk of the vaccine by orders of magnitude.

    I doubt that. The risk of problems from the vaccine has some known numbers, that are small but one hell of a lot higher than previous vaccines, and then some other unknown risks. OTOH, the risk of dying from the Flu Manchu are downright minuscule if you are a young man or woman under 25.

    Show me some numbers, Jack. Oh, wait, you can’t. Too many unknowns, regarding the vaccine. As for any young woman planning to get pregnant at any time in the future, well, you wouldn’t want to prevent your grandma from having any grandkids, would you? (See, Grandma’s already taken the vaccine.)

    Why don’t you read Mrs. Malkin’s article before you give me this “orders-of-magnitude” business?

    • Replies: @Anonymous
    @Achmed E. Newman

    Stand your ground.

    https://youtu.be/eXWhbUUE4ko

    They talk about "under 25" as though that were the relevant demographic.

    Of all the *60 year olds* who had Covid....

    1 in 300 died.

    And all your social distancing and masking did NOTNING.


    If you are under 60 and not in a hospice yet you stayed home and masked up..... L O S E R.

    All you did was was help distract the population and politicians from useful solitions to actually protect those few people at risk.

    It was theatre.

    All the world's a stage.

    It's even masked.

    Replies: @Achmed E. Newman

  230. @Mr. Anon
    @Corvinus


    For public health concerns, yes, the measures were justified.
     
    They were not justified.

    More importantly, they were not ethical, wise, or legal.

    And - though it hardly needs repeating - you are a stupid, contemptible ass.

    Replies: @Achmed E. Newman

    Disagree due to this part, Mr. Anon:

    And – though it hardly needs repeating – you are a stupid, contemptible ass.

    Wrong. It DOES need repeating.

    BTW, great comments here. I’m still getting through them, as I spent so much time on calculations yesterday. My comments were not in a good format, but suffice it to say that the CDC’s stated method of averaging ’15 – ’19 deaths for that “normal” death count gets one 100,000 “normal” deaths lower than one would get looking simply at American’s ages and normal death rates at those ages for ’19 alone, much less ’20. That means the excess deaths may be inflated by that 100,000 just due to this.

    Then, when you add in other early deaths as you and others have described due to the major disruption of society, it may add up to a big chunk, though not nearly all, of those excess deaths that this post is about.

    • Agree: Travis
    • Replies: @Travis
    @Achmed E. Newman

    expected deaths in 2020 was about 2.95 million. The US had 2.9 million deaths in 2019 and we would expect an increase of ~55,000 deaths in 2020 compared to 2019 due to our aging population as more people turned 70+ and the median age increased.

    actual deaths in 2020 were 3.36 million, which was ~410,000 excess deaths. The CDC claims 377,500 died from COVID in 2020 which would give us about 30,000 excess deaths from the lockdowns.

    The numbers of COVID deaths is very similar to the excess deaths during the Hon Kong flu epidemic of 1968 when the CDC estimated 100,000 Americans died from the flu. The vitims in 1968 , like today, were mostly over the age of 65.

    in 1968 the US population was 200 million, but the elderly population was just 20 million. The elderly population in 2020 was 3 times greater than in 1968. So the COVID pandemic deaths are comparable to the 1968 pandemic which killed 100,000 Americans.

    Replies: @Achmed E. Newman

  231. @Steve Sailer
    @Mr. Anon

    Some of it is luck. For example, San Francisco seems like a place that would have been hit hard, but it really hasn't been. Chicago is rather like NYC physically (e.g., lots of elevators and public transit), but it never had it quite as bad as NYC in spring 2020. Some of it sounds a lot like luck: e.g., Event X turned into a superspreader event but quite similar Event Y did not.

    Replies: @Mr. Anon, @Chrisnonymous

    When I commented a year ago that it was probably not a coincidence that Italy and New York City were two places famous for their gregariousness and also hard hit, no one noticed. But a year later, we now define dangerous events as those in which people are talking a lot and loudly.

    Geography is just extended circumstance. Combined with the math of duplication, I think it could explain a lot.

    The loud talker effect probably has significance in other places as well. For example, commenter utu kept claiming all last year that part of Japan’s lack of public transport spread was social distancing and masking even though Japanese trains are packed shoulder to shoulder and throughout much of the year prior to last October Japanese mask compliance was actually low. However, one thing that is true is that Japanese don’t talk on trains much, and they talk on their phones on the train even less, and they never have the NYC phenomenon of people getting on the train and yelling at others randomly.

    Regarding Unz’s claim that Iran’s outbreak must have been caused by the CIA because it was so bad, I have no knowledge of Persian language, but I wouldn’t be surprised to learn that Iranians are also a gregarious bunch.

    • Replies: @Travis
    @Chrisnonymous

    good observation. It is clear by now that coronavirus is spread by the inhalation of very fine respiratory droplets and aerosol particles. It is also clear that masks do nothing to stop the spread and may have resulted increased infections as people assumed they were protected by wearing masks. Wearing these paper and cloth masks also increase the spread of the small aerosol particles and cause small droplets to be broken up into smaller particles thus increasing the spread. Wearing masks also causes most of the aerosol particles to get projected upwards thru the gaps in the masks , thus causing the particles to linger in the air longer as they are projected upwards from the face reaching greater heights than when masks are not worn. Children are more kikely to spread the virus to adults when wearing masks, as they aerosols get projected higher than the face as they are forced thru the gaps along the top of the masks thus the viral particles reach higher where an adult may breath in the particles. Maskless children pose less risk to adults as they breath out from the nose or mouth since the aerosols will not be blown upward toward the faces of adults. Wearing masks actually facilitates the spread of aerosolized viral particles and increase infection rates. We already knew they did not protect individuals from contracting coronavirus, since these masks cannot prevent the tiny aerosolized particles from being inhaled. The CDC and the WHO always knew that these masks could not prevent infections. It was all done to spread panic and increase their power.

    Replies: @Hernan Pizzaro del Blanco

  232. @Corvinus
    @SunBakedSuburb

    “How about you and your ilk? Aren’t you the least bit skeptical of the liberal-left embrace of a highly-politicized DOJ/FBI which now partially function as a political police for the Democratic Party?”

    Except that’s not an accurate description. See, you are only proving my point here.

    “The American liberal-left challenged the power of the FBI when Hoover used it as a gestapo to go after those who opposed Establishment overreach.”

    Indeed.

    “The liberal-left spectrum has been totally hijacked by racist black ladies and men with uteruses; complete mass-delusion on your end.”

    You mean the Coalition of the Left Fringe. We normies are not in lock step, as iSteve and the Alt Right makes it appear.

    “Noxious creatures you and your ilk, totally unlovable; unlike the Trump pudding heads most of whom are salt-of-the-earth types.”

    Your over the top rhetoric once again shows your intellectual sterility. Confirmation bias is your master, hoss.

    Replies: @Clyde

    Clown and buffoon for the 119th time.

    • Replies: @Corvinus
    @Clyde

    That's quite harsh to say about SunBakedSuburb.

  233. @anonymous
    @TomSchmidt


    But you are long-term right, except that COVID has accelerated collapsing fertility by making housing more expensive.
     
    How has Covid made housing more expensive?

    Replies: @TomSchmidt, @J.Ross

    It hasn’t. The reaction to it has had the Fed buying $40bln monthly in MBS securities to drive interest rates to record lows, which has driven a stupendous boom in housing prices. The virus,of course, did not do that. If it were as lethal as originally assumed,in fact, it would drive down living costs as happened after the Black Death, which freed up the houses and land of 1/3rd of Europe, essentially making the surviving population 50% wealthier in land and housing.

  234. @res
    @Mr. Anon


    Yes, we’ve all heard that argument.
     
    I'd like to think that, but it really did not seem like it in this thread.


    What about regions that did not institute harsh lockdowns, and where a lot of people were not masking and not social distancing. Why was flu also suppressed there and among those people?
     
    I think even in those places people were modifying their behavior to a significant degree. You might have noticed how many things did not happen this past year (e.g. major sporting events, especially with audiences).

    To be clear, I am skeptical of the zero flu statement, but find it quite plausible that the flu was minimal this past year.

    Do you remember how the flu basically went away last year when the lockdowns started? And that was from a base where it had a foothold. This year it never even really got going.

    To reiterate, if the regions with less harsh measures still did enough not to have COVID run rampant then I find it plausible that they would see minimal flu.

    Replies: @Mr. Anon, @Chrisnonymous

    The annual flu usually starts in Asia and spreads worldwide….

    The H3N2 subtype causes the most disease each year. Genetic sequencing shows that from 2000 to 2010, 87 percent of the most successful, globally-spreading strains of H3N2 originated in east, south and southeast Asia.
    http://www.uchicagomedicine.org/forefront/biological-sciences-articles/where-does-the-flu-come-from-every-year

    …so I think it is at least a plausible hypothesis that needs to be disproved that the lack of 2020-21 flu season was due largely to lack of international travel and not to lockdowns and masking.

  235. @Bill Jones
    @TomSchmidt

    Everything you need to know about Masks and lockdowns is in the charts here.

    https://www.covidchartsquiz.com/

    Replies: @TomSchmidt

    Oh, I like that. Hopefully the website remains up for a few months.

  236. @Bill
    @Citizen of a Silly Country


    For the millionth time, let’s look at what the real question around Covid was. First, nobody but loons claimed that Covid was “just the flu, bro.” It was and is a very nasty virus, though, as you have mentioned not the Black Death.
     
    That simply isn't true. Anthony Fauci was saying that it was just a bad flu through the third week of March, 2020. The entire public health clownshow was saying it was just a bad flu over roughly the same period. Several eminent members of the public health clownshow, perhaps most prominently Stanford professor and epidemiologist John Ioannidis, claimed that there would be virtually no deaths. He, in particular, maintained this lunatic position for months after it was clearly proved wrong. There were and still are a bunch of floomers, several of whom seemed like sane people to me before, hanging out in isteve land.

    People's memory is astonishingly plastic. There was a mind-boggling 180 which occurred in the third week of March, 2020 in which almost the entire public health clownshow went from "it's just the flu" to "it's the black death." Nobody seems to remember this occurring.

    As to your main point, yes, it seems right that lockdowns (as we did them) and masking were infection control theater and were a bad idea.

    Replies: @Steve Sailer, @Mike1, @Mr. Anon, @Anonymous

    It really is amazing. I got harassed for wearing a mask in early 2020. The exact same people stare at me with hatred for NOT wearing a mask now.

  237. HA says:
    @Anthony Aaron
    Maybe those 'excess deaths' as you call them are just the results of petty dictators in government across the US imposing restrictions that caused millions to lose jobs … to be forbidden to go to school in person … to live lives other than of 'quiet desperation' … 

    No … maybe -- LIKELY -- those 'excess deaths' are the drug overdoses and suicides and missed surgeries and other medical treatments due to a fake pandemic that was pushed by TheFauci and BigPharma and Bill from the Gates and the WEF and the other likely suspects who will gain from 'the great reset'.

    Replies: @Steve Sailer, @HA

    “No … maybe — LIKELY — those ‘excess deaths’ are the drug overdoses and suicides and missed surgeries and other medical treatments due to a fake pandemic that was pushed by TheFauci and BigPharma and Bill from the Gates and the WEF and the other likely suspects who will gain from ‘the great reset’.”

    Again, the number of suicides went DOWN in 2020, so your theory can’t even make it past that hurdle (and suicide isn’t even in the top ten as far as major causes of death go). And all the deaths that we typically see from elective surgeries? That obviously went down too, so that would offset the “missed surgeries” effect. Also note that cancer deaths were (very slightly) down as well in 2020, so that’s another ding against missed surgeries.

    I know it’s a complicated issue, and some of those missed surgeries will definitely cause deaths in upcoming years that might have prevented if they had been operated on last year (though they’ll be offset by all the fragile people that COVID took out last year), but that’s why it’s better to actually work with data and with people who do this for a living as opposed to tossing out whatever lame and easily-discredited things you riff off the top of your head (or more likely, a lower body part). Then again, given that actually looking at data makes your lame conspiracy theories look even lamer, I can see why you prefer to stick with the handwaving and stream-of-consciousness rambling about whatever you can toss out in the vain hope that some of it will stick.

    • Replies: @Mr. Anon
    @HA

    You hysterical ninnies have yet to show any data to the effect that your totalitarian wet-dreams - masks and lockdowns - worked at all.

    You, Utu, Turok and the rest of you are the worst kind of slavish wretches. I don't give a damn what any of you say. It's not like you count yourselves among the rich and powerful who have imposed all this. You just seem to dig being enslaved and humiliated. You should go find yourself a dominatrix or whatever, instead of insisting that all of society share your gimp mask.

  238. @HA
    @Anthony Aaron

    "No … maybe — LIKELY — those ‘excess deaths’ are the drug overdoses and suicides and missed surgeries and other medical treatments due to a fake pandemic that was pushed by TheFauci and BigPharma and Bill from the Gates and the WEF and the other likely suspects who will gain from ‘the great reset’."

    Again, the number of suicides went DOWN in 2020, so your theory can't even make it past that hurdle (and suicide isn't even in the top ten as far as major causes of death go). And all the deaths that we typically see from elective surgeries? That obviously went down too, so that would offset the "missed surgeries" effect. Also note that cancer deaths were (very slightly) down as well in 2020, so that's another ding against missed surgeries.

    I know it's a complicated issue, and some of those missed surgeries will definitely cause deaths in upcoming years that might have prevented if they had been operated on last year (though they'll be offset by all the fragile people that COVID took out last year), but that's why it's better to actually work with data and with people who do this for a living as opposed to tossing out whatever lame and easily-discredited things you riff off the top of your head (or more likely, a lower body part). Then again, given that actually looking at data makes your lame conspiracy theories look even lamer, I can see why you prefer to stick with the handwaving and stream-of-consciousness rambling about whatever you can toss out in the vain hope that some of it will stick.

    Replies: @Mr. Anon

    You hysterical ninnies have yet to show any data to the effect that your totalitarian wet-dreams – masks and lockdowns – worked at all.

    You, Utu, Turok and the rest of you are the worst kind of slavish wretches. I don’t give a damn what any of you say. It’s not like you count yourselves among the rich and powerful who have imposed all this. You just seem to dig being enslaved and humiliated. You should go find yourself a dominatrix or whatever, instead of insisting that all of society share your gimp mask.

    • Agree: vinteuil, Mike Tre
  239. JAMA study pegs covid deaths at 345k. Overdoses/Car accidents were 192k.

    Regardless of position on this we have a 0.1% population death rate with a median age at death of 80!

    https://jamanetwork.com/journals/jama/fullarticle/2778234

    • Replies: @Chrisnonymous
    @Mike1

    Heart attack and stroke deaths at more than twice COVID. Calls for ending fast food? Forced antihypertensives for at risk groups?

    Cancer deaths significantly higher than COVID. Calls for enforced broad-brimmed hats and sunscreen and bans on cigarettes?

    Accidental injury deaths over half of COVID deaths. Shall we ban alcohol sales and require beathalizers for car-starting? Gun bans and collections?

    Diabetes and kidney deaths at 10s of 1000s. Time for an end to sugar and daily BP monitoring along with your daily temperature check?

    Apparently, the death you know is better than the death you don't know. Or maybe the death in front of you on Twitter and TV is worse? Or is it mass hysteria due to visceral fear of "contagion"?

    , @Chrisnonymous
    @Mike1

    If you think COVID is a tragedy, then the heart disease rate is a holocaust. I mean there's been 6000000 deaths from heart disease just since Obama's second term.

    Mark my words, in our vaccinated, vegan future a spare rib and the lack of a vaccine passport will be seen for what they both are--virtual gas chambers.


    First they didn't come for Five Guys, and I did not speak out--
    Because my BMI was within government guidelines.

    Then they didn't come for surfing, and I did not speak out--
    Because I preferred reading and never tanned.

    Then they didn't mandate vaccines, and I did not speak out--
    Because the pandemic had abated.

    Then my eyesight started to go--and there was no one left to take away my car keys.
     

    Replies: @Achmed E. Newman

  240. HA says:
    @Anon
    @Mike Tre

    If I recall, you've written that you have teenage kids. Over the past 15 months, one of my family members has experienced the following:

    Cancellation of his senior season of varsity basketball (his lifelong passion), Zoom classes for the last couple months of high school, no prom, a drive-thru graduation with no socializing, no last summer with childhood friends, and a bizarre, partially-virtual freshman year of college with limited socializing. Based on his age and health, COVID poses no risk to him at all.

    I'd like some of the pro-restriction crowd, like HA, to walk us through the moral logic under which it was right to do this to him. And if it was right to make him sacrifice all this for the vulnerable, have you expressed any gratitude for the fact that he did it? Should we have some kind of national reward for young people when this is over?

    It seems like no one talks about this at all. One of the weirdest things about the pandemic has been the callous indifference that commentators and authorities have shown towards young people.

    Replies: @HA

    “Cancellation of his senior season of varsity basketball (his lifelong passion), Zoom classes for the last couple months of high school, no prom,…Based on his age and health, COVID poses no risk to him at all…I’d like some of the pro-restriction crowd, like HA, to walk us through the moral logic under which…”

    You can call me “pro-lockdown” if it makes you feel better about your fragile little world with all its first-world-problems like missed proms, but that’s all that’s going on here. I’m not happy about lockdowns, I’m just pointing out that the reason that the pro-lockdown people have prevailed is that the anti-lockdown types can’t be bothered to come up with anything substantive. I know you don’t like to hear that, but give me a break. You want to pretend it’s all the suicides and “despair” that’s causing that graph to spike up? Seriously? That’s no better than the people who were claiming this time last year that the ER personnel were all crisis actors.

    And with regard to (oh, the horror) a lost varsity basketball season, I realize this is going to come as a shock for you, but for most sane people — even soulless government drones — death overrides “lost senior basketball season”. Yes, even if senior prom is canceled. All the costs required to keep those ventilators humming override the loss of popcorn revenue and future NBA earnings that will have been missed. I mean, it’s not even a contest. Yes, most of these dead people were old, and fat, and brown, but for whatever crazy reason, people in the ER rooms are not allowed to simply say “Nah,…not worth it” and go back to business as usual.

    High-schoolers are — from we can see so far — at minimal risk from COVID, that’s true. But they sill spread it to others who have a rougher time with it.

    If you want to change our society into adopting a “health care should only be for the young, non-obese, and non-brown” kind of system, have at it. Put it on a bumper sticker and see who votes for it. I.e. come up with a genuine plan. I’m sure the Bloomberg types who want to tax sugary sodas would love to see some legislation to get people skinnier, so maybe you can team up.

    But otherwise, whining and moaning about your fragile little flowers who missed a baseball season is not going to impress those who note the hundreds of thousands extra in corpses. Learn to prioritize. Again, not even a contest.

    • Replies: @J.Ross
    @HA

    Successful businesses erased and committing suicide isn't substantive. Okay. If it saved one 99 year old it was all worth it.

    Replies: @HA, @Jonathan Mason

    , @botazefa
    @HA


    I’m just pointing out that the reason that the pro-lockdown people have prevailed is that the anti-lockdown types can’t be bothered to come up with anything substantive.
     
    The pro-lockdown people have prevailed, thus far, not because their argument is better. They've prevailed because our plutocratic oligarchy manipulated media to make it appear as if lockdowns and masking are popular ideas. They memory holed counter arguments and people.

    They even managed to bully the CDC into reversing its position on masks.

    This has never been about the merit of the arguments. It's been about power. It has been about politics. It has been about greed.

    High-schoolers are — from we can see so far — at minimal risk from COVID, that’s true. But they sill spread it to others who have a rougher time with it
     
    .

    The burden is on you to articulate how someone not at risk of covid infection is somehow a spreader. I say that children, including teenagers, are unlikely spreaders.

    The concept of asymptomatic spread is as novel as this coronavirus. It's nothing more than unproven speculation at this point.

    All the costs required to keep those ventilators humming override the loss of popcorn revenue and future NBA earnings that will have been missed. I mean, it’s not even a contest.
     
    A value judgement you'd impose on the rest of us?

    I say the cost ain't worth it. The cost ain't worth it even if masks and lockdowns were 100% effective. A small population of people at the end of their lives doesn't have the right to impose so much burden on others; or have government burden us on their behalf. Our Constitution exists precisely to prevent minority abuse of the masses.

    That our leadership has imposed obviously pointless burdens on the healthy, to save the old and sick from a novel cold virus, is a change to decades of public health policy. A novel approach. Not something done ever before. Not during the Spanish flu. Not during polio. Never before.

    The burden is not on those of us who cling to the traditional ways of handling these things. The burden is on those true believers in their moral authority to make a compelling value proposition that the herculean global efforts to save 5million are worth it. Hard value proposition to make given that the 5million are already dead and nothing that public health authorities have done saved them.

    You're right, it's no contest. And the costs of this global nightmare are only just beginning to present themselves.

    Replies: @HA

    , @Jonathan Mason
    @HA


    I’m just pointing out that the reason that the pro-lockdown people have prevailed is that the anti-lockdown types can’t be bothered to come up with anything substantive.
     
    That is indeed the problem. Like everyone, I think the lockdowns have been overdone.

    Here in Ecuador we just came off a lockdown-lite that lasted for a month. You could not be out after 8pm on weekdays until 5am, and not at all on weekends. So from Friday 8pm until Monday 5am stay home.

    Not only that, but in the county where I live alcohol sales were banned for the duration of the lockdown. On the other hand, one could go to a branch of the same supermarket in the next county, just a 3-dollar taxi ride away or 15 cents on the bus, and buy all the booze that one wanted.

    It seems silly, and it seems inconsistent, but I am sure the county administrators were doing what they thought best for their population.

    In England my sister was not allowed to visit my other sister who was dying of cancer (now deceased) who lived 2 hours away, because that was not considered sufficient cause to legally leave home (but was allowed to go to the funeral.) Her son, who lives about 300 yards away was not allowed to her house for Sunday lunch for many months, as he was not part of the same household/

    I think such measures were overkill, but presumably the health authorities knew that people would break the rules, so instituted overkill measures to try to get the message out as forcefully as possible, and that even if a few people did sneak out to see their dying relative, they would refrain from inviting a neighbor to lunch.

    It seems like yesterday, but of course it is not, that my sister who died traveled to the US from the UK to see my niece playing in a college soccer game in Oregon. However that girls' soccer game was cancelled because 3 weeks earlier there had been a terrorist attack in New York, thousands of miles away from the West Coast.

    This is how human beings are. Sometimes we underreact and then get blamed when things go wrong, and sometimes we overreact, because we are scared of getting blamed if things go wrong.

    It is not always a conspiracy. Of course you are going to be upset when you have to change your plans due to some kind of force majeure, but at least you are not being eaten by a sabre-toothed tiger or placed in a death camp, so be grateful for small mercies.

    https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=pGWn9rtcolw

    Replies: @Mr. Anon

    , @Anon
    @HA

    My opposition to the lockdowns doesn't obligate me to support every bad argument made by anyone who opposed lockdowns. Just as your support for school closures doesn't obligate you to agree with the paranoid moms who thought their eight-year-olds were going to die of COVID.

    Anyway, you didn't really address my point. You can ridicule any of my examples, but what they add up to is a formative year of life effectively taken away, exchanged for a pathetic, isolated virtual world. That's a considerable loss.

    You agree that young people are at very low risk. That means that the restrictions they've endured have been sacrifices on behalf of others. Do you acknowledge that? Should they get any credit or recompense for it?

    Maybe we should balance the scales of justice with COVID reparations: a substantial one-time tax on people over the age of 65, with the proceeds distributed to people under 30.

    Replies: @HA

  241. @HA
    @Anon

    "Cancellation of his senior season of varsity basketball (his lifelong passion), Zoom classes for the last couple months of high school, no prom,...Based on his age and health, COVID poses no risk to him at all...I’d like some of the pro-restriction crowd, like HA, to walk us through the moral logic under which..."

    You can call me "pro-lockdown" if it makes you feel better about your fragile little world with all its first-world-problems like missed proms, but that's all that's going on here. I'm not happy about lockdowns, I'm just pointing out that the reason that the pro-lockdown people have prevailed is that the anti-lockdown types can't be bothered to come up with anything substantive. I know you don't like to hear that, but give me a break. You want to pretend it's all the suicides and "despair" that's causing that graph to spike up? Seriously? That's no better than the people who were claiming this time last year that the ER personnel were all crisis actors.

    And with regard to (oh, the horror) a lost varsity basketball season, I realize this is going to come as a shock for you, but for most sane people -- even soulless government drones -- death overrides "lost senior basketball season". Yes, even if senior prom is canceled. All the costs required to keep those ventilators humming override the loss of popcorn revenue and future NBA earnings that will have been missed. I mean, it's not even a contest. Yes, most of these dead people were old, and fat, and brown, but for whatever crazy reason, people in the ER rooms are not allowed to simply say "Nah,...not worth it" and go back to business as usual.

    High-schoolers are -- from we can see so far -- at minimal risk from COVID, that's true. But they sill spread it to others who have a rougher time with it.

    If you want to change our society into adopting a "health care should only be for the young, non-obese, and non-brown" kind of system, have at it. Put it on a bumper sticker and see who votes for it. I.e. come up with a genuine plan. I'm sure the Bloomberg types who want to tax sugary sodas would love to see some legislation to get people skinnier, so maybe you can team up.

    But otherwise, whining and moaning about your fragile little flowers who missed a baseball season is not going to impress those who note the hundreds of thousands extra in corpses. Learn to prioritize. Again, not even a contest.

    Replies: @J.Ross, @botazefa, @Jonathan Mason, @Anon

    Successful businesses erased and committing suicide isn’t substantive. Okay. If it saved one 99 year old it was all worth it.

    • Replies: @HA
    @J.Ross

    "Successful businesses erased and committing suicide isn’t substantive."

    Again, for like the third time this thread, suicides went DOWN in 2020. Do a ctrl-f on "suicides went down" and you'll find at least two links to that.

    If you can't be bothered to keep track of something as simple as that, after it has been repeated three times, maybe that's the real reason why your "successful" business was erased, or whatever, and why people aren't paying as much attention to the anti-lockdown counterarguments as you'd like. Stop making it so easy to dismiss you.

    Replies: @J.Ross, @Mark G., @Mr. Anon

    , @Jonathan Mason
    @J.Ross

    I guess Medicare recipients (people over 65 years of age) don't vote much in comparison to college students, so why bother pandering to has-beens?

    While we are at it we can wipe out the federal deficit and lower taxes in a stroke by simply abolishing Social Security, Medicare, and the Veterans' Administration with a stroke of the pen, and then abolish the Post Office while we still have the pen out.

    There's your political TV commercial laid out for you. A president sitting in the Oval Office surrounded by cheering basketball players while he signs these orders, then cut to the president performing a slam dunk while an old man in basketball uniform lies on the floor with a broken leg and the president exclaims "He's fallen and he can't get up!"

    Raucus cheers all round.

    Replies: @J.Ross

  242. @anonymous
    @TomSchmidt


    But you are long-term right, except that COVID has accelerated collapsing fertility by making housing more expensive.
     
    How has Covid made housing more expensive?

    Replies: @TomSchmidt, @J.Ross

    Materials and employees were artificially made more scarce by the lockdown but not the virus.

  243. @Bill
    @Citizen of a Silly Country


    For the millionth time, let’s look at what the real question around Covid was. First, nobody but loons claimed that Covid was “just the flu, bro.” It was and is a very nasty virus, though, as you have mentioned not the Black Death.
     
    That simply isn't true. Anthony Fauci was saying that it was just a bad flu through the third week of March, 2020. The entire public health clownshow was saying it was just a bad flu over roughly the same period. Several eminent members of the public health clownshow, perhaps most prominently Stanford professor and epidemiologist John Ioannidis, claimed that there would be virtually no deaths. He, in particular, maintained this lunatic position for months after it was clearly proved wrong. There were and still are a bunch of floomers, several of whom seemed like sane people to me before, hanging out in isteve land.

    People's memory is astonishingly plastic. There was a mind-boggling 180 which occurred in the third week of March, 2020 in which almost the entire public health clownshow went from "it's just the flu" to "it's the black death." Nobody seems to remember this occurring.

    As to your main point, yes, it seems right that lockdowns (as we did them) and masking were infection control theater and were a bad idea.

    Replies: @Steve Sailer, @Mike1, @Mr. Anon, @Anonymous

    Several eminent members of the public health clownshow, perhaps most prominently Stanford professor and epidemiologist John Ioannidis, claimed that there would be virtually no deaths.

    I am unaware of any such statement by Ioannidis. Can you link to one?

    • Replies: @Bill
    @Mr. Anon

    Of course I can. I can also link to his ridiculous attempts to walk back his claim. Why don't we just skip forward to the part where you link that or paraphrase it?

    After that, you can explain to us that Noam Chomsky did not deny the Cambodian genocide and did not call its survivors liars.

    , @HA
    @Mr. Anon

    "I am unaware of any such statement by Ioannidis [that there would be virtually no deaths]"

    You're clearly unaware of a lot, but to the extent that "virtually no deaths" is actually about 10K, there's this:


    Ioannidis still seems to be dealing with the after-effects of his extrapolation last year that there might be 10,000 coronavirus deaths in the United States...."At most, we might [notice that the 2020 flu season] seems to be a bit worse than average".
     

    Replies: @Mr. Anon

  244. @Achmed E. Newman
    @Mr. Anon

    Disagree due to this part, Mr. Anon:


    And – though it hardly needs repeating – you are a stupid, contemptible ass.
     
    Wrong. It DOES need repeating.

    BTW, great comments here. I'm still getting through them, as I spent so much time on calculations yesterday. My comments were not in a good format, but suffice it to say that the CDC's stated method of averaging '15 - '19 deaths for that "normal" death count gets one 100,000 "normal" deaths lower than one would get looking simply at American's ages and normal death rates at those ages for '19 alone, much less '20. That means the excess deaths may be inflated by that 100,000 just due to this.

    Then, when you add in other early deaths as you and others have described due to the major disruption of society, it may add up to a big chunk, though not nearly all, of those excess deaths that this post is about.

    Replies: @Travis

    expected deaths in 2020 was about 2.95 million. The US had 2.9 million deaths in 2019 and we would expect an increase of ~55,000 deaths in 2020 compared to 2019 due to our aging population as more people turned 70+ and the median age increased.

    actual deaths in 2020 were 3.36 million, which was ~410,000 excess deaths. The CDC claims 377,500 died from COVID in 2020 which would give us about 30,000 excess deaths from the lockdowns.

    The numbers of COVID deaths is very similar to the excess deaths during the Hon Kong flu epidemic of 1968 when the CDC estimated 100,000 Americans died from the flu. The vitims in 1968 , like today, were mostly over the age of 65.

    in 1968 the US population was 200 million, but the elderly population was just 20 million. The elderly population in 2020 was 3 times greater than in 1968. So the COVID pandemic deaths are comparable to the 1968 pandemic which killed 100,000 Americans.

    • Replies: @Achmed E. Newman
    @Travis

    Yep, you got the idea, Travis. I, and the guys writing the paper Turtlelamp just pointed to me here were more specific about the age groups and the normal death rates for each. As I wrote above, other than in the 85+ group, the death rates didn't change much at all from '15 to '19.

    I will put this together for a blog post on Wednesday on Peak Stupidity, I sure hope!

  245. It wasn’t the Black Death, but it wasn’t nothing either.

    Thanks for this. To help in positioning Covid on the scale from nothing to Black Death, do you happen to have access to corresponding curves for the pandemics of 1957 and 1968? For the Spanish Flu?

  246. @Bardon Kaldian
    And what if Moderna is clearly a source of worry?

    SM 102 has been labeled as toxic or potentially dangerous:
    https://www.caymanchem.com/msdss/33474m.pdf

    Then, people started asking Cayman Chemical about SM 102, but CC refused to answer (a guy named Brad Williams) & later "answered" it.

    https://www.facebook.com/CaymanChemical/

    Then, Cayman Chemical issue a statement which, if you read it, is basically- I am washing my hands, I have nothing to do with it. They say explicitly that SM 102 is for research purposes only:

    https://www.caymanchem.com/news/sm-102-statement

    SM-102 for Research Use Only (RUO)

    Then, AP issues "clarification", basically worthless, about toxicity of chloroform:

    https://apnews.com/article/fact-checking-339133801807

    Moderna vaccine ingredient falsely targeted as unsafe

    What the heck is this?

    I don't need any statement by AP; I want clear announcement from Cayman Chemical and US health authorities that this substance is not dangerous (not only non-toxic).

    Replies: @Mr. Anon

    I’m suspicious of these vaccines too, but this business about SM-102 is rooted in a misunderstanding. SM-102 is one of the lipids used to encapsulate the mRNA chain.

    From that MSDS you linked to:

    “Hazard-determining components of labeling: Chloroform”

    The product in question that the MSDS refers to is this SM-102 lipid suspended in chloroform, presumably for preservation (to keep it from getting rancid). And according to the company, this product is only for laboratory use, not clinical. If you look at the warnings, the biggest one is flammability, because chloroform is highly flammable. Whatever side-effects the Moderna vax has, I don’t think one of them is spontaneous human combustion.

    I don’t know how they prepare and distribute SM-102 to the vaccine manufacturers. Maybe it’s shipped cold. Or maybe Moderna decants off the chloroform and there is some small residual amount in the vax (which might be a health concern). I don’t know. But it’s not like they are injecting people with straight chloroform.

    • Replies: @Bardon Kaldian
    @Mr. Anon

    Read carefully Cayman Chemical statement. They speak about Chloroform, but when it comes to SM 102, they are very cautious:

    https://www.caymanchem.com/news/sm-102-statement

    Cayman Chemical Company, Inc. (Cayman) develops and manufactures chemical compounds for research use only (RUO) and has a separate business division that produces small molecules as Active Pharmaceutical Ingredients (API) for human and veterinary use.

    RUO-grade products, such as Cayman’s SM-102 (Item # 33474), are intended only for in vitro or animal (exploratory or preclinical) use. In addition to SM-102, Cayman sells many other RUO-grade products that are used by academic and industrial scientists worldwide in the preclinical exploration of novel therapies to address diseases such as cancer, immune disorders, inflammation, diabetes, and infectious diseases.

    APIs used for commercial pharmaceutical manufacturing adhere to strict guidelines under FDA-regulated Good Manufacture Practice (GMP) protocols to ensure their safety for human and veterinary use. Chemicals under the same name can have differing designations such as grade or formulation that are defined by their manufacturing protocols and intended use. This designation is indicated on the Safety Data Sheet (SDS) included with each Cayman product.

    SDSs are required to present the content and hazards of each ingredient in a shipped chemical product. The SDS for Cayman’s SM-102 (Item # 33474) accurately represents that the mixture of chemicals in the product are 90% chloroform (a common solvent) and 10% SM-102. While it is a common solvent, chloroform has several known serious hazards, which have been included on Cayman’s SDS. Neither the National Institute for Occupational Safety and Health (NIOSH), Registry of Toxic Effects of Chemical Substances (RTECS), or the European Chemicals Agency (ECHA) Classification and Labelling Inventory list any hazards associated with SM-102.

    So, what CC say is:

    1. we are using SM 102 only in research

    2. NSIOH etc. did not find SM 102 to be toxic.

    This is an interesting formulation. They are, as it were, publicly stating they have no responsibility for use of SM 102 in, say, vaccination- because they use it only in research, on animals; and that US government agencies did not find SM 102 to be toxic.

    In other words, they are washing their hands, to exculpate themselves in advance if something goes wrong with Moderna.

    Replies: @Mr. Anon

  247. @MGB
    @Bill Jones

    So what you’re saying, in part, is that correlation is not causation. Even worse though is that there aren’t even two reliable sets of data to compare. There are no reliable data for the ‘the three waves of coronavirus cases’. The hysterics have gone from measuring the apocalypse by linking positive PCR testing and individual deaths, to advancing the excess deaths theory, which does not need reliable PCR testing, to this hybrid ‘case waves’ excess death theory, which again requires that the test be reliable.

    None of those arguments takes into consideration the possible impact of the half assed quarantine, driving people from their homes, bankrupting small businesses, isolating the elderly from any human contact. I have been able to visit my 90-year old mother 3-4 times per week during this because, thankfully, she is still in her own home, but she has friends, both living independently and in LTC facilities, who spent more than a year isolated from their family, some of whom died. Was it simply their time, or did being terrorized and isolated hasten their death? Who knows. But this retardedly simple correlation theory doesn’t allow for any conclusion other than ‘the pandemic killed a whole bunch of people.’ As for the future of children and adolescents who spent 7 hours a day for a year in virtual class rooms, with no social interaction, growing obese, depressed and anxious, ‘we shall see.’

    Replies: @Bill Jones

    My father in law died of the covid lockdown. His wife of half a century or so died ( of real natural causes) and because of the clusterfuck of restrictions he was isolated, unable to receive family or friends or have a funeral for his wife.
    He was dead within 6 weeks. I had been out to Colorado three months earlier to see him and we’d gone for a stroll around the gardens and discussed the work he’d done for the Rand corporation in the 70’s on limited nuclear strike scenarios. He was sound in mind and body.
    Fuck the politicians and their lick-spittle minions.

  248. @Wielgus
    @Jack D

    Darwin Award might be too strong - people who went to hospital, sometimes for something else, seem to have contracted Covid there, in a number of cases.

    Replies: @Mr. Anon

    Darwin Award might be too strong – people who went to hospital, sometimes for something else, seem to have contracted Covid there, in a number of cases.

    Probably in that communal pathogen nebulizer known as the ER waiting-room lavatory.

  249. HA says:
    @J.Ross
    @HA

    Successful businesses erased and committing suicide isn't substantive. Okay. If it saved one 99 year old it was all worth it.

    Replies: @HA, @Jonathan Mason

    “Successful businesses erased and committing suicide isn’t substantive.”

    Again, for like the third time this thread, suicides went DOWN in 2020. Do a ctrl-f on “suicides went down” and you’ll find at least two links to that.

    If you can’t be bothered to keep track of something as simple as that, after it has been repeated three times, maybe that’s the real reason why your “successful” business was erased, or whatever, and why people aren’t paying as much attention to the anti-lockdown counterarguments as you’d like. Stop making it so easy to dismiss you.

    • Replies: @J.Ross
    @HA

    They were caught lying, they were caught submitting fraudulent academic papers, and they have a self-explanatory political motive. Much of what is said in the West about Putin is a lot less substantive. I refuse to keep track of lie number four or five.

    , @Mark G.
    @HA


    If you can’t be bothered to keep track of something as simple as that, after it has been repeated three times, maybe that’s the real reason why your “successful” business was erased, or whatever, and why people aren’t paying as much attention to the anti-lockdown counterarguments as you’d like.
     
    Generally speaking, poorer countries have a lower average life expectancy than wealthier ones. There is a possibility here that the economic devastation caused by the lockdowns may reduce average life expectancy in the future. We really have yet to see the long term negative economic effects of this since they have been temporarily delayed with massive money printing to use for stimulus bills. Just the attempt to delay the negative economic effects will itself probably cause us to be poorer in the long run.

    So this is really about more than a lost high school basketball season or the number of suicides in 2020. We may be condemning our descendants to a poorer future and shorter lives. To make intelligent decisions, you always need to look at both the short term and long term effects of those decisions. In addition to scientists who have special training in how to fight a disease, you also need input from people who take a broader view. Scientists don't have any special wisdom in this area so you can't limit these decisions solely to them. They need to be made jointly by society as a whole. Unfortunately, some politicians only look as far ahead as winning the next election. We need politicians and the general public to not just think about ourselves but also what kind of world we will be leaving to our descendants.

    , @Mr. Anon
    @HA


    Again, for like the third time this thread, suicides went DOWN in 2020.
     
    Or they were just reclassified as "unintentional overdoses":

    https://www.nytimes.com/2021/04/15/health/coronavirus-suicide-cdc.html

    The decline came even as the number of unintentional overdose deaths rose dramatically during the pandemic. Some overdoses are classified as suicides; there is debate among researchers as to how many ought to be included.
     

    Replies: @MGB, @HA

  250. Anonymous[853] • Disclaimer says:
    @anon
    Bezos Blog views with alarm another "return to normal". Oh, the horror!

    https://twitter.com/washingtonpost/status/1396156668354904069?ref_src=twsrc%5Etfw%7Ctwcamp%5Etweetembed%7Ctwterm%5E1396156668354904069%7Ctwgr%5E%7Ctwcon%5Es1_&ref_url=https%3A%2F%2Fnotthebee.com%2Farticle%2Fwapo-grieves-horror-no-masks-men-will-start-telling-women-to-smile-again

    Replies: @Anonymous

    Question: which is more believable, the “people want to touch my hair” stories or the “he told me to smile” stories? I’m guessing one in a million hair stories are true and that the smile stories have never occurred, period.

  251. @Steve Sailer
    @BB753

    Please explain your contorted logic why that wouldn't be so?

    Replies: @Pop Warner, @Barack Obama's secret Unz account, @BB753

    Because it would be a first in human history. So very unlikely.

  252. Anonymous[853] • Disclaimer says:
    @Bill
    @Citizen of a Silly Country


    For the millionth time, let’s look at what the real question around Covid was. First, nobody but loons claimed that Covid was “just the flu, bro.” It was and is a very nasty virus, though, as you have mentioned not the Black Death.
     
    That simply isn't true. Anthony Fauci was saying that it was just a bad flu through the third week of March, 2020. The entire public health clownshow was saying it was just a bad flu over roughly the same period. Several eminent members of the public health clownshow, perhaps most prominently Stanford professor and epidemiologist John Ioannidis, claimed that there would be virtually no deaths. He, in particular, maintained this lunatic position for months after it was clearly proved wrong. There were and still are a bunch of floomers, several of whom seemed like sane people to me before, hanging out in isteve land.

    People's memory is astonishingly plastic. There was a mind-boggling 180 which occurred in the third week of March, 2020 in which almost the entire public health clownshow went from "it's just the flu" to "it's the black death." Nobody seems to remember this occurring.

    As to your main point, yes, it seems right that lockdowns (as we did them) and masking were infection control theater and were a bad idea.

    Replies: @Steve Sailer, @Mike1, @Mr. Anon, @Anonymous

    When did Neal Ferguson (sp?) Give his 2.2 million deaths in the US claim? That’s probably the date of the switch.

    • Replies: @Bill
    @Anonymous

    I don't remember. That claim aged well, though. If not for the vaccines, 2 million is a pretty reasonable guess at where we would have ended up.

    Replies: @Mr. Anon

  253. @Mr. Anon
    @Colin Wright


    It would depend on precisely who was to be the sacrificee.

    I’m right out, that has to be clear.
     
    Fair point. Hey, I think you've got the stuff to be governor of Michigan.

    Replies: @Colin Wright

    ‘Fair point. Hey, I think you’ve got the stuff to be governor of Michigan.’

    Would I be required to reside in Michigan?

  254. Bill says:
    @Mr. Anon
    @Bill


    Several eminent members of the public health clownshow, perhaps most prominently Stanford professor and epidemiologist John Ioannidis, claimed that there would be virtually no deaths.
     
    I am unaware of any such statement by Ioannidis. Can you link to one?

    Replies: @Bill, @HA

    Of course I can. I can also link to his ridiculous attempts to walk back his claim. Why don’t we just skip forward to the part where you link that or paraphrase it?

    After that, you can explain to us that Noam Chomsky did not deny the Cambodian genocide and did not call its survivors liars.

  255. @Colin Wright
    @Corvinus

    'For public health concerns, yes, the measures were justified.'

    You have to be impervious to the evidence to make a statement like that. Texas is running a 10% positive test rate, they lift the mask requirement --and their rate falls to 6%.

    Your position is that masks work.

    Replies: @Mark G.

    You have to be impervious to the evidence to make a statement like that. Texas is running a 10% positive test rate, they lift the mask requirement –and their rate falls to 6%.

    Your position is that masks work.

    It’s fortunate that we have a more federalist system here in the U.S. and decisions could be made at a state level rather than have all decisions nationalized. If Biden and Fauci had been in charge about making the decision, the mask requirement would never have been dropped since Biden was calling the Texas governor a Neanderthal and Fauci was warning of a spike in deaths. We would have never had any evidence here showing that the masks and lockdowns were not all that effective. The same thing is true with Florida and other states that didn’t cave into media panic or the doom and gloom warnings from politicians.

    From the very beginning of all this, most lockdown and mask proponents have been vehemently against letting states make their own decisions. If they really thought they were right, they should have welcomed a demonstration of it by letting a state go mask and lockdown free and then pointing to how the dire results they were predicting actually came to pass. Their desire to keep everyone in lockstep doing the same thing and their hysterical reaction when a state wanted to do something different is an indication that they were afraid of being exposed.

    • Replies: @Corvinus
    @Mark G.

    How about letting local communities make their own decisions? I thought conservatives were supportive.

    Florida Governor De Santis threatened to pull available doses to communities if officials there criticized his distribution plan and forced the end of community mask mandates.

    Austin and Travis County public health leaders recently announced they would continue to require masks, even though Governor Abbott (Texas) forbade local authorities from superseding his order.

    Replies: @anon, @Mark G.

  256. HA says:
    @Mr. Anon
    @Bill


    Several eminent members of the public health clownshow, perhaps most prominently Stanford professor and epidemiologist John Ioannidis, claimed that there would be virtually no deaths.
     
    I am unaware of any such statement by Ioannidis. Can you link to one?

    Replies: @Bill, @HA

    “I am unaware of any such statement by Ioannidis [that there would be virtually no deaths]”

    You’re clearly unaware of a lot, but to the extent that “virtually no deaths” is actually about 10K, there’s this:

    Ioannidis still seems to be dealing with the after-effects of his extrapolation last year that there might be 10,000 coronavirus deaths in the United States….“At most, we might [notice that the 2020 flu season] seems to be a bit worse than average”.

    • Replies: @Mr. Anon
    @HA


    You’re clearly unaware of a lot,....
     
    I rather think that about you.

    Anyway, a tendentious article by people who themselves who have been wront on sailent points.
  257. @Achmed E. Newman
    As I wrote to AnotherDad yesterday, I'd done a fairly quick calculation based on the following:

    - All the pages I'd pulled up, from the CDC and others, said they used a baseline (note "line", not "curve") of "normal deaths" from an average of '15 to '19 deaths of Americans. Yeah, but the average age of an American is rising fairly quickly.

    - I pulled up US Census pages that have 5-year age brackets of Americans by age and sex.

    - I pulled up tables of data via Statista that has (unfortunately only 10-year) brackets of death rate by age for various years.

    - Just calculations of 2 5-year brackets together of age groups (from the first table) x death rates of each 10-year bracket of death rates by age gives number of deaths expected in any one of these normal years. (yes, "normal" is hard to break out from "slightly bad flu season", "year after slightly bad flu season", etc.)

    - For the year '19 alone, I'd gotten something like 150,000 additional deaths just due to aging vs. that average '15-'19 average that the CDC and others use. No, that's not most of these excess deaths, but not insignificant either.

    This is nothing groundbreaking or hard - it's just that a '15-'19 baseline for "normal" deaths is significantly lower than a normal one based on how much more aged the population was in '19 alone (much less '20).

    Yes, I need to show my work. I will get on this later today, as I have to go right now and don't want to rush this now. (Gotta round up all the old browser tabs too.) I don't blog on Sundays, but tomorrow I'll put up a post on Peak Stupidity.

    Replies: @theMann, @Bill, @Barack Obama's secret Unz account, @Mr Mox, @Turtlelamp

    This is a valid point. Our population is aging and the number of expected deaths each year is rising.

    According to this paper, the US population in 2020 had 5 million more people aged 65+ than the average for 2015-2019. Factoring this in, the number of excess deaths from March to August 2020 dropped by about 23%.

    https://pubmed.ncbi.nlm.nih.gov/33316174/

    • Thanks: Dieter Kief
    • Replies: @Achmed E. Newman
    @Turtlelamp

    Wow, that's right in my wheelhouse now, Turtlelamp. Thank you!

    It took me a while to figure out how to get to the full paper. The link is in there, but here it is, also. This one covers only Mar - Aug of '20. In that 2nd set of bar graphs, I did a quick look (it was hard to find that number in the paper for me) and saw that these guys had ~300,000 excess deaths without accounting for population changes and ~ 225,000 with accounting for that. The difference is 75,000.

    I used the same method they describe thusly:


    Age-specific excess deaths from March through August 2020 were estimated in 2 ways. First, the average annual number of deaths in each month in 2015 to 2019 was subtracted from the observed number of deaths in 2020 in each age group (that is, no adjustment was made for population growth and aging). Second, the expected number of deaths in 2020 was estimated with direct standardization by applying the age-specific death rate in 2015 to 2019 to population counts in 2020, by age and month, and then subtracted from the observed number of deaths in 2020 (that is, with adjustment for population growth and aging). Expected deaths are the number of deaths that would have occurred in 2020 if age-specific death rates were the same as in 2015 to 2019....
     
    Exactamundo!!

    Now I didn't do the analysis of the other cause of excess deaths that they did. Also, I don't have the '20 population age group data that they have, as I mentioned in one of my comments. I used '19, as if it were the '20 ages of Americans, so there should be even more than the 100,000 in difference that I stated above.

    I was in the middle of a quick apology post on my blog for not getting this data in a post. It'll come Wednesday, I think. I was way too busy today.

    Replies: @Dieter Kief

  258. @Jim Christian
    @Bill Jones

    How does Fauci, a federal employee of nearly 50 years, own 50 patents? The USG owns his work and those patents, one would think, just as a company would own the work and patents of THEIR employees. How does that corrupt little earthworm own even one?

    Replies: @res, @Bill Jones

    Read the Bayh-Dole act of 1980.

    It effectively turned the CDC into the marketing arm of big Pharma.

    https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Bayh%E2%80%93Dole_Act

    It is unbelievable that people are taking unproven and unapproved genetic experiment produced by either a criminal company found guilty of medical fraud who paid the largest fine in history, or by a company who has never brought a vaccine to market.

  259. @HA
    @Anon

    "Cancellation of his senior season of varsity basketball (his lifelong passion), Zoom classes for the last couple months of high school, no prom,...Based on his age and health, COVID poses no risk to him at all...I’d like some of the pro-restriction crowd, like HA, to walk us through the moral logic under which..."

    You can call me "pro-lockdown" if it makes you feel better about your fragile little world with all its first-world-problems like missed proms, but that's all that's going on here. I'm not happy about lockdowns, I'm just pointing out that the reason that the pro-lockdown people have prevailed is that the anti-lockdown types can't be bothered to come up with anything substantive. I know you don't like to hear that, but give me a break. You want to pretend it's all the suicides and "despair" that's causing that graph to spike up? Seriously? That's no better than the people who were claiming this time last year that the ER personnel were all crisis actors.

    And with regard to (oh, the horror) a lost varsity basketball season, I realize this is going to come as a shock for you, but for most sane people -- even soulless government drones -- death overrides "lost senior basketball season". Yes, even if senior prom is canceled. All the costs required to keep those ventilators humming override the loss of popcorn revenue and future NBA earnings that will have been missed. I mean, it's not even a contest. Yes, most of these dead people were old, and fat, and brown, but for whatever crazy reason, people in the ER rooms are not allowed to simply say "Nah,...not worth it" and go back to business as usual.

    High-schoolers are -- from we can see so far -- at minimal risk from COVID, that's true. But they sill spread it to others who have a rougher time with it.

    If you want to change our society into adopting a "health care should only be for the young, non-obese, and non-brown" kind of system, have at it. Put it on a bumper sticker and see who votes for it. I.e. come up with a genuine plan. I'm sure the Bloomberg types who want to tax sugary sodas would love to see some legislation to get people skinnier, so maybe you can team up.

    But otherwise, whining and moaning about your fragile little flowers who missed a baseball season is not going to impress those who note the hundreds of thousands extra in corpses. Learn to prioritize. Again, not even a contest.

    Replies: @J.Ross, @botazefa, @Jonathan Mason, @Anon

    I’m just pointing out that the reason that the pro-lockdown people have prevailed is that the anti-lockdown types can’t be bothered to come up with anything substantive.

    The pro-lockdown people have prevailed, thus far, not because their argument is better. They’ve prevailed because our plutocratic oligarchy manipulated media to make it appear as if lockdowns and masking are popular ideas. They memory holed counter arguments and people.

    They even managed to bully the CDC into reversing its position on masks.

    This has never been about the merit of the arguments. It’s been about power. It has been about politics. It has been about greed.

    High-schoolers are — from we can see so far — at minimal risk from COVID, that’s true. But they sill spread it to others who have a rougher time with it

    .

    The burden is on you to articulate how someone not at risk of covid infection is somehow a spreader. I say that children, including teenagers, are unlikely spreaders.

    The concept of asymptomatic spread is as novel as this coronavirus. It’s nothing more than unproven speculation at this point.

    All the costs required to keep those ventilators humming override the loss of popcorn revenue and future NBA earnings that will have been missed. I mean, it’s not even a contest.

    A value judgement you’d impose on the rest of us?

    I say the cost ain’t worth it. The cost ain’t worth it even if masks and lockdowns were 100% effective. A small population of people at the end of their lives doesn’t have the right to impose so much burden on others; or have government burden us on their behalf. Our Constitution exists precisely to prevent minority abuse of the masses.

    That our leadership has imposed obviously pointless burdens on the healthy, to save the old and sick from a novel cold virus, is a change to decades of public health policy. A novel approach. Not something done ever before. Not during the Spanish flu. Not during polio. Never before.

    The burden is not on those of us who cling to the traditional ways of handling these things. The burden is on those true believers in their moral authority to make a compelling value proposition that the herculean global efforts to save 5million are worth it. Hard value proposition to make given that the 5million are already dead and nothing that public health authorities have done saved them.

    You’re right, it’s no contest. And the costs of this global nightmare are only just beginning to present themselves.

    • Agree: Achmed E. Newman, Travis
    • Replies: @HA
    @botazefa

    "The pro-lockdown people have prevailed, thus far, not because their argument is better. They’ve prevailed because our plutocratic oligarchy manipulated media to make it appear as if lockdowns and masking are popular ideas."

    That's right. The plutocrats all got together and decided to "burn down the economy" or whatever else people around here are saying that lockdowns did. That seems just the kind of thing that plutocratic oligarchs would do. Makes total sense!

    And just for good measure, they of course roped in the Russians and Chinese and Cubans and the Iranians to get on board with all this vaccination hype. How sneaky of Big Pharma to cover their tracks like that!

    No, if you ever want to steer it back to reality, the reason the pro-lockdown people prevailed is that those opposed to them have resorted to nutty anti-vaxx conspiracy theories like yours to make their case.

    Again, the Covid truthers can scream at Sailer all they want. In the end, he had graphs and he had data. That's the key difference. I see precious little of that from the nothingburger crowd (though they were happy to make hay of the same kind of graph Sailer has above before the spikes started happening). I get it, math is hard. Epidemiology and immunology are a chore. Why go through all that labor to actually understand what you're talking about when you could instead demand that your opinions on something you clearly know nothing about should count anyway because....democracy, or something like that? Or else, handwave and toss up whatever comes off the top of your head like it's just as good as something that actual epidemiologists spent years learning how to put together and hope that no one calls your bluff and blows your lame counterargument out of the water.

    Oh, and with regard to my previous comment, the link for the 2020 suicide forecast (indicating it would be about 20K higher than 2019's record year) wasn't formatted correctly I'll try again. Or else, maybe people can just do their own research for a change.

    Replies: @HA, @botazefa

  260. @HA
    @J.Ross

    "Successful businesses erased and committing suicide isn’t substantive."

    Again, for like the third time this thread, suicides went DOWN in 2020. Do a ctrl-f on "suicides went down" and you'll find at least two links to that.

    If you can't be bothered to keep track of something as simple as that, after it has been repeated three times, maybe that's the real reason why your "successful" business was erased, or whatever, and why people aren't paying as much attention to the anti-lockdown counterarguments as you'd like. Stop making it so easy to dismiss you.

    Replies: @J.Ross, @Mark G., @Mr. Anon

    They were caught lying, they were caught submitting fraudulent academic papers, and they have a self-explanatory political motive. Much of what is said in the West about Putin is a lot less substantive. I refuse to keep track of lie number four or five.

  261. @Buzz Mohawk
    @Jack D


    BTW “that which does not kill you makes you stronger” is just not true.
     
    It is odd to see an intelligent man on an HBD blog write that. You are denying one basis of evolution itself. Even if we leave evolution aside, what is most certainly true is that we weaken ourselves when we rely too much on assistance.

    Hell, this goes to socio-political stuff. The very powers that we here object to want nothing more that to make their supporters dependent on them, and you know who all those people are.

    Helplessness and dependency on help is not a good thing, so why did you just write what you wrote?

    Replies: @Jack D, @HA, @Anonymous Jew

    I recall that you get better immunity from a particular strain of flu by being infected by the actual flu itself compared to the vaccine. But it still may make sense to get a flu shot. Even if it won’t kill you and even if the immunity is not as good as getting the actual flu.

    I recall I got a bad flu in my early 20’s when symptoms tend to be the worst because your immune system is at its peak. Sure, I wasn’t going to die, but it was as annoying as heck. If a flu vaccine could eliminate my symptoms – or even if it mostly misses and reduces them by 30% – 50% – then why not? Why effectively lose 2 days of my life? Like any decisions, you weigh the good against the bad. I’ve gotten a flu shot every year since. It’s worth it just to reduce flu symptoms.

    Back to COVID: I don’t care about excess deaths as that’s behind us and out of our control. What’s relevant is current and future public policy. What can we do besides allow everyone the opportunity to get vaccinated? Only two things seem to work: lockdowns and vaccines. And the vaccine is here. Do we wear masks and stay home for the rest of our lives? Because it’s ether that or we just get back to normal.

    I don’t think there was ever a compelling reason for the lockdown – based on a rational cost-benefit analysis. But now there’s truly no reason. This is madness.

    I recently got my second shot, and it was just so I would have good standing to tell everyone else to bugger off. Outside of the grocery store etc I now refuse to wear a mask in any social situation. If someone demands that I wear a mask for a particular gathering/event I state my principled reason not to and/or leave. I’m vaccinated. That’s all we got. I’m done with this bullish-t.

    • Thanks: Buzz Mohawk
  262. @HA
    @Alvin

    "If this thing was circulating as early as winter 2019 why didn’t we witness any excess deaths until after the lockdowns were implemented in mid-March 2020?"

    Because when it comes to contagious diseases, "circulating" is not the same as having enough to skyrocket to where this thing did. Measles has been "circulating" forever. But once measles infects enough people, then it really starts to take off. That's why they use exponential growth to model this stuff.

    "So any excess deaths could be attributed to the lockdowns – anxiety and stress, isolation and depression, unemployment and bankruptcies, canceled medical procedures, missed screenings and treatments for cancer, heart disease, diabetes, and suicides, drug overdoses, excess alcohol consumption, lack of exercise and fresh air..."

    If one is a clueless idiot, one can attribute those deaths however one likes, and there are plenty of examples of that on this thread. But people who have actually tallied up the numbers have noted that suicides actually went DOWN last year. Deaths from elective surgeries likewise went down. Deaths from heart disease went up by only 30K. So somehow your "lack of fresh air" theory is going to have to explain a reduction in suicide alongside some unspecified increase in deaths from "anxiety and stress" or whatever in such a way that it actually explains an extra half million deaths or so. If that's your plan, good luck with it.

    I don't deny that there are plenty of experts here who can brush away whatever doesn't suit their confirmation bias and blow up everything else to explain the extra couple of hundred thousand dead we've seen last year. For the rest of us, who don't walk into a plane and presume to give the pilot flying tips, and who don't think their Facebook circle of anti-vaxxer co-conspiracy theorists know more about the dangers of vaccinations than a pediatrician, it's not very convincing.

    Fauci is no saint, but if the so-called experts around here are the alternative, it's no wonder people seem by and large more willing to listen to him. That being the case, instead of tossing out unsubstantiated guesswork on what MIGHT be going on, take some classes in immunology, and epidemiology -- i.e. pay your dues -- and beat the experts at their own game?

    Replies: @Alvin

    You don’t need to be an expert in immunology or epidemiology to understand and analyze statistics. The JAMA article you cite doesn’t adjust for population growth (as far as I can tell) or adjust for age of population. If you take those two considerations into account, 2020 mortality is similar to 2004 mortality. I would be more interested in deaths by age.

    We also know that almost any death can be labeled a “Covid” death on the certificate, because of huge bonuses to hospitals, including deaths from gun shot wounds, car accidents, falling off a ladder, and anything else badged with a positive PCR. CDC itself said 6% (more recently 5%) of “Covid” deaths are “Covid only” deaths and average Covid deaths had 3.5 comorbidities. In Italy, that “Covid only” figure is 1%.

    Nothing in your comments or the JAMA article disproves lockdown policies led to an increase in deaths due to their many disruptions to normal life. Sweden, with no lockdowns but disproportionate nursing home population, had excess deaths that were average compared to the rest of Europe and less than many of the most extreme lockdown and mask countries.

    Going back to that JAMA table, there is significant increase in “unintentional injuries”. How many of those might be drug overdose and suicide related? How many so-called Covid deaths were suicides? Also keep in mind that we haven’t felt the full effects of the lockdowns, which could take another few years. It’ll be interesting to see the number of deaths, especially among the younger populations, over the next several years.

    • Replies: @HA
    @Alvin

    "You don’t need to be an expert in immunology or epidemiology to understand and analyze statistics. The JAMA article you cite doesn’t adjust for population growth (as far as I can tell) or adjust for age of population."

    Look to the CDC analysis for that. That's where the above graph was taken from. Or look at what Europeans have done with their excess death rate studies. It's a similar story. Or do your own research instead of just whining and moaning like the fragile little flower who can't deal with the fact that his son missed out on seeing his school elect their very first trans-gendered prom "queen" or how they had to move their first annual George Floyd memorial flash mobs to TikTok, or whatever else he missed out on. I'm so sorry 500,000 dead people got in the way of all that indoctrination to the extent that it had to be shifted to Zoom instead. "We may be condemning our descendants to a poorer future and shorter lives" you say? Oh, cry me a river. I'm sure the generation that spent days locked up in air raid shelters dodging from the Nazis look down from heaven and weep at the injustice.

    Don't try to rationalize an utter inability to deal with actual data by trying to rope in "what is said in the West about Putin" in order to rev up the cheering section. Last I heard, Putin (and Netanyahu and that Chechen guy with the golden handgun) were all 100% on board with vaccination. If you want to know why people think the Covid truthers are loons blubbering in their echo chamber, look no further than comments like that. Sailer actually produced a graph -- the same graph that the "just a flu" bros were touting when they said it proved Covid was a nothingburger, but now want to dump all over. Not everyone's memory is that short.

    And the reason I cited the JAMA article was that it showed how suicides decreased relative to last year. That's two raw 2019 and 2020 numbers -- no "adjustment" needed.

  263. @HA
    @J.Ross

    "Successful businesses erased and committing suicide isn’t substantive."

    Again, for like the third time this thread, suicides went DOWN in 2020. Do a ctrl-f on "suicides went down" and you'll find at least two links to that.

    If you can't be bothered to keep track of something as simple as that, after it has been repeated three times, maybe that's the real reason why your "successful" business was erased, or whatever, and why people aren't paying as much attention to the anti-lockdown counterarguments as you'd like. Stop making it so easy to dismiss you.

    Replies: @J.Ross, @Mark G., @Mr. Anon

    If you can’t be bothered to keep track of something as simple as that, after it has been repeated three times, maybe that’s the real reason why your “successful” business was erased, or whatever, and why people aren’t paying as much attention to the anti-lockdown counterarguments as you’d like.

    Generally speaking, poorer countries have a lower average life expectancy than wealthier ones. There is a possibility here that the economic devastation caused by the lockdowns may reduce average life expectancy in the future. We really have yet to see the long term negative economic effects of this since they have been temporarily delayed with massive money printing to use for stimulus bills. Just the attempt to delay the negative economic effects will itself probably cause us to be poorer in the long run.

    So this is really about more than a lost high school basketball season or the number of suicides in 2020. We may be condemning our descendants to a poorer future and shorter lives. To make intelligent decisions, you always need to look at both the short term and long term effects of those decisions. In addition to scientists who have special training in how to fight a disease, you also need input from people who take a broader view. Scientists don’t have any special wisdom in this area so you can’t limit these decisions solely to them. They need to be made jointly by society as a whole. Unfortunately, some politicians only look as far ahead as winning the next election. We need politicians and the general public to not just think about ourselves but also what kind of world we will be leaving to our descendants.

  264. @J.Ross
    @HA

    Successful businesses erased and committing suicide isn't substantive. Okay. If it saved one 99 year old it was all worth it.

    Replies: @HA, @Jonathan Mason

    I guess Medicare recipients (people over 65 years of age) don’t vote much in comparison to college students, so why bother pandering to has-beens?

    While we are at it we can wipe out the federal deficit and lower taxes in a stroke by simply abolishing Social Security, Medicare, and the Veterans’ Administration with a stroke of the pen, and then abolish the Post Office while we still have the pen out.

    There’s your political TV commercial laid out for you. A president sitting in the Oval Office surrounded by cheering basketball players while he signs these orders, then cut to the president performing a slam dunk while an old man in basketball uniform lies on the floor with a broken leg and the president exclaims “He’s fallen and he can’t get up!”

    Raucus cheers all round.

    • Replies: @J.Ross
    @Jonathan Mason

    Sure, if we kill significantly more people than Covid at its absolute worst.

  265. @Chrisnonymous
    @Steve Sailer

    When I commented a year ago that it was probably not a coincidence that Italy and New York City were two places famous for their gregariousness and also hard hit, no one noticed. But a year later, we now define dangerous events as those in which people are talking a lot and loudly.

    Geography is just extended circumstance. Combined with the math of duplication, I think it could explain a lot.

    The loud talker effect probably has significance in other places as well. For example, commenter utu kept claiming all last year that part of Japan's lack of public transport spread was social distancing and masking even though Japanese trains are packed shoulder to shoulder and throughout much of the year prior to last October Japanese mask compliance was actually low. However, one thing that is true is that Japanese don't talk on trains much, and they talk on their phones on the train even less, and they never have the NYC phenomenon of people getting on the train and yelling at others randomly.

    Regarding Unz's claim that Iran's outbreak must have been caused by the CIA because it was so bad, I have no knowledge of Persian language, but I wouldn't be surprised to learn that Iranians are also a gregarious bunch.

    Replies: @Travis

    good observation. It is clear by now that coronavirus is spread by the inhalation of very fine respiratory droplets and aerosol particles. It is also clear that masks do nothing to stop the spread and may have resulted increased infections as people assumed they were protected by wearing masks. Wearing these paper and cloth masks also increase the spread of the small aerosol particles and cause small droplets to be broken up into smaller particles thus increasing the spread. Wearing masks also causes most of the aerosol particles to get projected upwards thru the gaps in the masks , thus causing the particles to linger in the air longer as they are projected upwards from the face reaching greater heights than when masks are not worn. Children are more kikely to spread the virus to adults when wearing masks, as they aerosols get projected higher than the face as they are forced thru the gaps along the top of the masks thus the viral particles reach higher where an adult may breath in the particles. Maskless children pose less risk to adults as they breath out from the nose or mouth since the aerosols will not be blown upward toward the faces of adults. Wearing masks actually facilitates the spread of aerosolized viral particles and increase infection rates. We already knew they did not protect individuals from contracting coronavirus, since these masks cannot prevent the tiny aerosolized particles from being inhaled. The CDC and the WHO always knew that these masks could not prevent infections. It was all done to spread panic and increase their power.

    • Replies: @Hernan Pizzaro del Blanco
    @Travis

    The mask fetish has been one of the most bizarre fads of this century. 95% of the kids in our town are walking to school still wearing masks here in Summit NJ. Very strange.

    Replies: @MGB

  266. @HA
    @Anon

    "Cancellation of his senior season of varsity basketball (his lifelong passion), Zoom classes for the last couple months of high school, no prom,...Based on his age and health, COVID poses no risk to him at all...I’d like some of the pro-restriction crowd, like HA, to walk us through the moral logic under which..."

    You can call me "pro-lockdown" if it makes you feel better about your fragile little world with all its first-world-problems like missed proms, but that's all that's going on here. I'm not happy about lockdowns, I'm just pointing out that the reason that the pro-lockdown people have prevailed is that the anti-lockdown types can't be bothered to come up with anything substantive. I know you don't like to hear that, but give me a break. You want to pretend it's all the suicides and "despair" that's causing that graph to spike up? Seriously? That's no better than the people who were claiming this time last year that the ER personnel were all crisis actors.

    And with regard to (oh, the horror) a lost varsity basketball season, I realize this is going to come as a shock for you, but for most sane people -- even soulless government drones -- death overrides "lost senior basketball season". Yes, even if senior prom is canceled. All the costs required to keep those ventilators humming override the loss of popcorn revenue and future NBA earnings that will have been missed. I mean, it's not even a contest. Yes, most of these dead people were old, and fat, and brown, but for whatever crazy reason, people in the ER rooms are not allowed to simply say "Nah,...not worth it" and go back to business as usual.

    High-schoolers are -- from we can see so far -- at minimal risk from COVID, that's true. But they sill spread it to others who have a rougher time with it.

    If you want to change our society into adopting a "health care should only be for the young, non-obese, and non-brown" kind of system, have at it. Put it on a bumper sticker and see who votes for it. I.e. come up with a genuine plan. I'm sure the Bloomberg types who want to tax sugary sodas would love to see some legislation to get people skinnier, so maybe you can team up.

    But otherwise, whining and moaning about your fragile little flowers who missed a baseball season is not going to impress those who note the hundreds of thousands extra in corpses. Learn to prioritize. Again, not even a contest.

    Replies: @J.Ross, @botazefa, @Jonathan Mason, @Anon

    I’m just pointing out that the reason that the pro-lockdown people have prevailed is that the anti-lockdown types can’t be bothered to come up with anything substantive.

    That is indeed the problem. Like everyone, I think the lockdowns have been overdone.

    Here in Ecuador we just came off a lockdown-lite that lasted for a month. You could not be out after 8pm on weekdays until 5am, and not at all on weekends. So from Friday 8pm until Monday 5am stay home.

    Not only that, but in the county where I live alcohol sales were banned for the duration of the lockdown. On the other hand, one could go to a branch of the same supermarket in the next county, just a 3-dollar taxi ride away or 15 cents on the bus, and buy all the booze that one wanted.

    It seems silly, and it seems inconsistent, but I am sure the county administrators were doing what they thought best for their population.

    In England my sister was not allowed to visit my other sister who was dying of cancer (now deceased) who lived 2 hours away, because that was not considered sufficient cause to legally leave home (but was allowed to go to the funeral.) Her son, who lives about 300 yards away was not allowed to her house for Sunday lunch for many months, as he was not part of the same household/

    I think such measures were overkill, but presumably the health authorities knew that people would break the rules, so instituted overkill measures to try to get the message out as forcefully as possible, and that even if a few people did sneak out to see their dying relative, they would refrain from inviting a neighbor to lunch.

    It seems like yesterday, but of course it is not, that my sister who died traveled to the US from the UK to see my niece playing in a college soccer game in Oregon. However that girls’ soccer game was cancelled because 3 weeks earlier there had been a terrorist attack in New York, thousands of miles away from the West Coast.

    This is how human beings are. Sometimes we underreact and then get blamed when things go wrong, and sometimes we overreact, because we are scared of getting blamed if things go wrong.

    It is not always a conspiracy. Of course you are going to be upset when you have to change your plans due to some kind of force majeure, but at least you are not being eaten by a sabre-toothed tiger or placed in a death camp, so be grateful for small mercies.

    • Replies: @Mr. Anon
    @Jonathan Mason


    Like everyone, I think the lockdowns have been overdone.
     
    Let's play fill in the blank.

    Like everyone, I think ______________ have been overdone.

    a.) Human sacrifices

    b.) Stalinist purges

    c.) Concentration camps

    d.) Cannibalism

    e.) Serial murders

    f.) Rampage killings

    Like lockdowns, these are all things that are not "overdone". They should never be done at all.
  267. @Jonathan Mason
    @J.Ross

    I guess Medicare recipients (people over 65 years of age) don't vote much in comparison to college students, so why bother pandering to has-beens?

    While we are at it we can wipe out the federal deficit and lower taxes in a stroke by simply abolishing Social Security, Medicare, and the Veterans' Administration with a stroke of the pen, and then abolish the Post Office while we still have the pen out.

    There's your political TV commercial laid out for you. A president sitting in the Oval Office surrounded by cheering basketball players while he signs these orders, then cut to the president performing a slam dunk while an old man in basketball uniform lies on the floor with a broken leg and the president exclaims "He's fallen and he can't get up!"

    Raucus cheers all round.

    Replies: @J.Ross

    Sure, if we kill significantly more people than Covid at its absolute worst.

  268. anon[239] • Disclaimer says:
    @anonymous
    @anon


    The nurse told us it will begin in late November after Thanksgiving and begin in earnest around Christmas. He means deaths. Lots of them. Pneumonia and flu.
     
    Why?

    Replies: @anon

    He thought the change in the rna or the spike protien would make the genetically modified person who took the shot (there are real vaccines for covid, but modernas and pfizers are genetic shots, not weakened forms of the virus like a traditional vaccine), would end up making the person much more liable to pnuemonia and the common flu. I didn’t press as to exactly why at the microscopic level. The nurse is a very religious guy, but he is professionally competent supposedly.
    Makes ya’ wonder. He thinks the non-vaccinated will be blamed by the media.

    I personally am afraid of a “leaky” vaccine scenario based on a chicken vaccine that seen inimmunized birds die because of the way a chickenvirus mutated around a particular vaccine to become more, not less, virulent.

    Im waiting at least 3 years. Wanna see if anything bad happens to the injected. Vaccines usually take 8 years to approve for humans. Effects might not be immediate. I might take traditional vaccine if one were available.

  269. Anonymous[402] • Disclaimer says:
    @Achmed E. Newman
    @Jack D


    While the risk of Covid to under 25’s is fairly low, it’s still much greater than the risk of the vaccine by orders of magnitude.
     
    I doubt that. The risk of problems from the vaccine has some known numbers, that are small but one hell of a lot higher than previous vaccines, and then some other unknown risks. OTOH, the risk of dying from the Flu Manchu are downright minuscule if you are a young man or woman under 25.

    Show me some numbers, Jack. Oh, wait, you can't. Too many unknowns, regarding the vaccine. As for any young woman planning to get pregnant at any time in the future, well, you wouldn't want to prevent your grandma from having any grandkids, would you? (See, Grandma's already taken the vaccine.)

    Why don't you read Mrs. Malkin's article before you give me this "orders-of-magnitude" business?

    Replies: @Anonymous

    Stand your ground.

    They talk about “under 25” as though that were the relevant demographic.

    Of all the *60 year olds* who had Covid….

    1 in 300 died.

    And all your social distancing and masking did NOTNING.

    If you are under 60 and not in a hospice yet you stayed home and masked up….. L O S E R.

    All you did was was help distract the population and politicians from useful solitions to actually protect those few people at risk.

    It was theatre.

    All the world’s a stage.

    It’s even masked.

    • Replies: @Achmed E. Newman
    @Anonymous

    I LUV, LUV, LUV that video, #402. I put that one up on my blog when it came out. Thank you for the reminder and another entertaining view of it.

  270. @Anon
    @Colin Wright

    Does anyone remember Italy, or has that been memory holed? How about the drone video of backhoes making mass graves on an island off of New York City so the refrigerated trailers full of corpses could be Peterbilted over to the dock for water transport?

    I live in Japan, and as of now, May 2021, I cannot be admitted to a hospital for most of the things I would have been able to a couple of years ago.

    The idea that Covid19 could have been ignored and treated like the flu without flu shots implies that you're OK with leaving the "low-hanging fruit" in their residences to die there without impacting medical services for the rest of us, with the additional assumption that an entire industry of residential corpse disposal could be created from scratch for the duration, not to mention a domicilary solution for those living with pre-corpses and corpses to get away from them for a while. And you'd need some sort of mass psychological counseling to convince those irrational people who are not low-hanging fruit but for some weird reason still don't want to get Covid19 to chill out.

    Replies: @Colin Wright

    ‘Does anyone remember Italy, or has that been memory holed? How about the drone video of backhoes making mass graves on an island off of New York City so the refrigerated trailers full of corpses could be Peterbilted over to the dock for water transport?’

    Yes, but…

    ‘…Through the end of October, 2,009 New Yorkers have been buried on Hart Island in 2020, more than double last year’s total of 846…’

    New York was an outlier and even then, you’re talking about an increased mortality of 1163 people. Obviously, this isn’t all the dead that died in New York City from the Corona Virus — but it really isn’t a statistically significant number. New York City has a population of over eight million; it follows that about a hundred thousand people die in any year from all causes.

    So why should I remember the mass graves on Hart Island? Do I worry about the other ninety nine thousand people that died in New York City last year?

    A lot of the hysteria is built around deliberately ignoring the fact that there are a whole lot of people in the world — and every year, a whole lot of them die. It’s an unpleasant fact — but a fact.

  271. @HA
    @Mr. Anon

    "I am unaware of any such statement by Ioannidis [that there would be virtually no deaths]"

    You're clearly unaware of a lot, but to the extent that "virtually no deaths" is actually about 10K, there's this:


    Ioannidis still seems to be dealing with the after-effects of his extrapolation last year that there might be 10,000 coronavirus deaths in the United States...."At most, we might [notice that the 2020 flu season] seems to be a bit worse than average".
     

    Replies: @Mr. Anon

    You’re clearly unaware of a lot,….

    I rather think that about you.

    Anyway, a tendentious article by people who themselves who have been wront on sailent points.

  272. @HA
    @J.Ross

    "Successful businesses erased and committing suicide isn’t substantive."

    Again, for like the third time this thread, suicides went DOWN in 2020. Do a ctrl-f on "suicides went down" and you'll find at least two links to that.

    If you can't be bothered to keep track of something as simple as that, after it has been repeated three times, maybe that's the real reason why your "successful" business was erased, or whatever, and why people aren't paying as much attention to the anti-lockdown counterarguments as you'd like. Stop making it so easy to dismiss you.

    Replies: @J.Ross, @Mark G., @Mr. Anon

    Again, for like the third time this thread, suicides went DOWN in 2020.

    Or they were just reclassified as “unintentional overdoses”:

    https://www.nytimes.com/2021/04/15/health/coronavirus-suicide-cdc.html

    The decline came even as the number of unintentional overdose deaths rose dramatically during the pandemic. Some overdoses are classified as suicides; there is debate among researchers as to how many ought to be included.

    • Replies: @MGB
    @Mr. Anon

    Suicide statistics are suspect under any circumstances. Consideration given to family reputation, concern over life insurance benefits for a wife who just lost her breadwinner, etc. can influence a 'suicide' finding as much as any forensic evidence. In any event, people hanging by the neck from their chandelier with a note pinned to their shirt is the rare case. As a matter of common sense, you would expect suicides to increase as social interactions ground to a halt, and people are contacting legal aid to stop their eviction, whether or not the death is classified as a suicide, or from someone unintentionally medicating themselves to death. And there is all this supposed statistical, scientific certainty about Covid deaths. What do we know about rates for obesity, diabetes, hypertension, etc. during the Covid period? Who's tracking that shit? If there really is another wave of Covid, or some variant thereof, are you better protected from a serious infection if you are obese and have had the vaccine, or an unvaccinated, healthy specimen? The government scared people into hiding in their basement. Why not scare them into a daily hike through the woods? That's the grotesque state of affairs, that people have been convinced that health is defined by access to pharmaceuticals.

    I have been to a number of sporting events for kids now that things have opened up a bit. Most of them can't run five yards without having a respiratory event, and from the looks of things their parents aren't any better off despite all of the Peloton commercials.

    Replies: @Steve Sailer, @HA

    , @HA
    @Mr. Anon

    "Or they were just reclassified as 'unintentional overdoses'"

    So maybe compare the suicide by gunshot numbers in the two years. I.e. as hard as it is, do some actual work instead of just grasping at straws. If you had bothered to click a few more times you'd see that so far it looks like 2020 will exceed 2019's 76K suicide death toll (already a record) by about 20K.

    Yeah, it's not good news, but good luck stretching that to 500K. Maybe if you whine and moan like a pathetic geezer, people will overlook the fact that you're just grasping at whatever headline you can find in the desperate hope that everyone else is as pathetically lazy as you are and won't bother to call your bluff and dig deeper. It didn't work this time, but then, it's a lot easier than actually doing some real analysis.

  273. @Jonathan Mason
    @HA


    I’m just pointing out that the reason that the pro-lockdown people have prevailed is that the anti-lockdown types can’t be bothered to come up with anything substantive.
     
    That is indeed the problem. Like everyone, I think the lockdowns have been overdone.

    Here in Ecuador we just came off a lockdown-lite that lasted for a month. You could not be out after 8pm on weekdays until 5am, and not at all on weekends. So from Friday 8pm until Monday 5am stay home.

    Not only that, but in the county where I live alcohol sales were banned for the duration of the lockdown. On the other hand, one could go to a branch of the same supermarket in the next county, just a 3-dollar taxi ride away or 15 cents on the bus, and buy all the booze that one wanted.

    It seems silly, and it seems inconsistent, but I am sure the county administrators were doing what they thought best for their population.

    In England my sister was not allowed to visit my other sister who was dying of cancer (now deceased) who lived 2 hours away, because that was not considered sufficient cause to legally leave home (but was allowed to go to the funeral.) Her son, who lives about 300 yards away was not allowed to her house for Sunday lunch for many months, as he was not part of the same household/

    I think such measures were overkill, but presumably the health authorities knew that people would break the rules, so instituted overkill measures to try to get the message out as forcefully as possible, and that even if a few people did sneak out to see their dying relative, they would refrain from inviting a neighbor to lunch.

    It seems like yesterday, but of course it is not, that my sister who died traveled to the US from the UK to see my niece playing in a college soccer game in Oregon. However that girls' soccer game was cancelled because 3 weeks earlier there had been a terrorist attack in New York, thousands of miles away from the West Coast.

    This is how human beings are. Sometimes we underreact and then get blamed when things go wrong, and sometimes we overreact, because we are scared of getting blamed if things go wrong.

    It is not always a conspiracy. Of course you are going to be upset when you have to change your plans due to some kind of force majeure, but at least you are not being eaten by a sabre-toothed tiger or placed in a death camp, so be grateful for small mercies.

    https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=pGWn9rtcolw

    Replies: @Mr. Anon

    Like everyone, I think the lockdowns have been overdone.

    Let’s play fill in the blank.

    Like everyone, I think ______________ have been overdone.

    a.) Human sacrifices

    b.) Stalinist purges

    c.) Concentration camps

    d.) Cannibalism

    e.) Serial murders

    f.) Rampage killings

    Like lockdowns, these are all things that are not “overdone”. They should never be done at all.

  274. @TomSchmidt

    The study of VA cases shows significantly higher mortality of Covid cases months out.
     
    If you read it carefully, they have a gradient. "Cases" that never required hospitalization: not much trouble. Hospitalization: some trouble. Intensive care: much trouble. Ventilator: get your effects in order.

    But you are long-term right, except that COVID has accelerated collapsing fertility by making housing more expensive. And by transferring wealth from young healthy people who might have children to sicker older people who won't.

    Replies: @anonymous, @AnotherDad

    But you are long-term right, except that COVID has accelerated collapsing fertility by making housing more expensive. And by transferring wealth from young healthy people who might have children to sicker older people who won’t.

    I do think the lockdown nonsense may well kill more babies from being born than it kills old fogies off.

    Which–speaking as an old fogey nationalist–is sad. I’d rather die younger with more grandchildren than dodder off into a long long twilight with fewer. What’s important is who/what lives on after me–i’ve already done “the good stuff”.

    ~~

    That said, the actual effects of covid–the virus–on housing should be fertility positive. I.e. increasing supply by killing off some current occupants. It’s not the Black Death … but it has freed up some housing.

    What’s driving up housing costs is
    a) the lockdowns
    — increasing lumber prices
    — driving people out of blue state hell holes to red state freedom; (my Florida whitetopia has gone fricking nuts, my house is worth a couple hundred thousand more just this year)

    but much more importantly
    b) money printing
    –the flood of money and basement interest rates have sent prices soaring.

    I’m a broken record, but we need policies that focus on the nation’s future–affordable family formation:
    — end immigration (super-charging job and housing availability)
    — kill off taxation of families with children (eugenically, deductions only not welfare)
    — voucher off public education
    — competency tests in lieu of costly college credentialism

    It’s not a hard problem to make middle class family life affordable and pleasant again. It’s just that we have a nasty “elite”–whose driving ethos is looting–hostile to flyover white-gentiles actually having children and living their lives according to their traditional culture in their traditional nation.

    • Replies: @Jonathan Mason
    @AnotherDad

    I think it is much more low interest rates that have elevated house prices, because when monthly payments go down, people can afford to borrow more and still be able to make the payments.

    Inflated home prices is great for the real estate industry because real estate sales people are paid as a percentage of the total value of the sale, not as a percentage of the equity which the homeowner has in the home, (or on a flat fee basis which seems more reasonable to me.)

    Printing money certainly devalues the international exchange rate of the dollar a bit against other currencies, except for the fact that other currencies are also printing more money just negating the effect.

    I doubt whether printing say $5,000 per family in the United States can make the price of a house go up $100,000, as that $5,000 is probably only two or three monthly mortgage payments.

    The newly printed money is probably only compensating for the new money that was not created due to a building slowdown during the Covid-19 epidemic.

    Building new homes effectively creates money, because banks can then loan out money that did not previously exist as mortgages with the homes as security.

    Inflation of home values is one of those ill winds that greatly benefits some at the expense of others. When an existing home buyer can adjust their interest rate downwards while their home simultaneously increases in potential selling value, they are quids in.

    And if you want something that will really cheer you up, think about all those Haitian home buyers who will be able to sell up and take early retirement, then move back to Haiti, build a mansion, and live on their Social Security and rents.

    , @TomSchmidt
    @AnotherDad

    It’s not a hard problem to make middle class family life affordable and pleasant again.

    I suspect it is a very hard problem. MAGA was about the abused and defrauded working class searching for someone to do something about their being denuded by the elite. The next group that needs a champion to go with the unsated MAGAs will be the middle class below the upper middle class. That's clearly a majority of the electorate.

    At some point, being the bought handmaidens of the elite is going to be overwhelming for a politician with, uh, testicular fortitude. I think they realize it cannot be done. Since the oil embargo of 1973, wages have gone down in real terms for the median worker, or barely risen. That's partly political power, and partly the inability to find cheap energy to distribute to the populace.

    But breaking the grifter class in the elite, and more importantly their lickspittle lackeys in the professional-managerial class, will at least provide good political theater and equalize the suffering. That will be a winning political position. Seizing the wealth of the 9 COVID billionaires would be a good start: leave them with 50,000,000 and give the money to people made unemployed by lockdowns, or small landlords driven to the brink by eviction moratoriums.

  275. @Steve Sailer
    @Bill Jones

    Nah, just look at the total number of deaths each week.

    I realize it's hard to admit you were wrong, but it's good for the soul.

    Replies: @Hernan Pizzaro del Blanco, @Desiderius, @Sub, @Citizen of a Silly Country, @Travis, @Mr. Anon, @Anthony Aaron, @Marquis, @anon, @Scott Locklin, @Corvinus

    FWIIW I’ve done this exercise; while the executives on top of CDC making grand pronouncements are all dipshits who should probably be tarred and feathered, counting dead people is a pretty rudimentary governmental function, and the CDC numbers for rona deaths seem to be entirely accurate, and have been all along.

    As for the knuckleheads claiming ‘there have been zero flu deaths in 2021’ that’s not even remotely true. It’s lower than usual, especially for pediatric influenza deaths, probably because everyone’s wearing a goddamned mask.

    You people have degenerated into two tribes of filthy monkeys throwing poop at each other on twitter and have completely lost your ability to recognize reality. Except Steve because apparently he can run a spreadsheet and count dead people.

  276. @Travis
    @Steve Sailer

    The fearmongers were wrong. The fatality rate of COVID was well under .5%

    Dr. Ioannidis was correct. Infection fatality rate of COVID-19 inferred from seroprevalence data demonstarte that the IFR was closer to .3% than 1%

    The lockdown proponents will never admit they were wrong. The lockdowns are a big reason for the increase in excess deaths.

    Replies: @Scott Locklin

    The lockdowns are a big reason for the increase in excess deaths.

    Citations needed. They worked extremely well in Taiwan and New Zealand. Mind you I agree with the Swedish approach and think ultimately keeping old people indoors rather than shutting down civilization was the right approach.

    • Replies: @Chrisnonymous
    @Scott Locklin

    But the timing in Taiwan and NZ was key. Plus the whole tiny island nation thing.

    , @Art Deco
    @Scott Locklin

    They worked extremely well in Taiwan and New Zealand.

    Both are insular countries which could effectively close their borders. In re Taiwan, note also that pretty much all of the Far East was spared. Might have something to do with how the virus was engineered.

  277. @Scott Locklin
    @Travis


    The lockdowns are a big reason for the increase in excess deaths.
     
    Citations needed. They worked extremely well in Taiwan and New Zealand. Mind you I agree with the Swedish approach and think ultimately keeping old people indoors rather than shutting down civilization was the right approach.

    Replies: @Chrisnonymous, @Art Deco

    But the timing in Taiwan and NZ was key. Plus the whole tiny island nation thing.

  278. @Clyde
    @Corvinus

    Clown and buffoon for the 119th time.

    Replies: @Corvinus

    That’s quite harsh to say about SunBakedSuburb.

  279. @Steve Sailer
    @Bill Jones

    Nah, just look at the total number of deaths each week.

    I realize it's hard to admit you were wrong, but it's good for the soul.

    Replies: @Hernan Pizzaro del Blanco, @Desiderius, @Sub, @Citizen of a Silly Country, @Travis, @Mr. Anon, @Anthony Aaron, @Marquis, @anon, @Scott Locklin, @Corvinus

    You really should follow your own advice, iSteve.

  280. @Mike1
    JAMA study pegs covid deaths at 345k. Overdoses/Car accidents were 192k.

    Regardless of position on this we have a 0.1% population death rate with a median age at death of 80!

    https://jamanetwork.com/journals/jama/fullarticle/2778234

    Replies: @Chrisnonymous, @Chrisnonymous

    Heart attack and stroke deaths at more than twice COVID. Calls for ending fast food? Forced antihypertensives for at risk groups?

    Cancer deaths significantly higher than COVID. Calls for enforced broad-brimmed hats and sunscreen and bans on cigarettes?

    Accidental injury deaths over half of COVID deaths. Shall we ban alcohol sales and require beathalizers for car-starting? Gun bans and collections?

    Diabetes and kidney deaths at 10s of 1000s. Time for an end to sugar and daily BP monitoring along with your daily temperature check?

    Apparently, the death you know is better than the death you don’t know. Or maybe the death in front of you on Twitter and TV is worse? Or is it mass hysteria due to visceral fear of “contagion”?

  281. @Mark G.
    @Colin Wright


    You have to be impervious to the evidence to make a statement like that. Texas is running a 10% positive test rate, they lift the mask requirement –and their rate falls to 6%.

    Your position is that masks work.
     
    It's fortunate that we have a more federalist system here in the U.S. and decisions could be made at a state level rather than have all decisions nationalized. If Biden and Fauci had been in charge about making the decision, the mask requirement would never have been dropped since Biden was calling the Texas governor a Neanderthal and Fauci was warning of a spike in deaths. We would have never had any evidence here showing that the masks and lockdowns were not all that effective. The same thing is true with Florida and other states that didn't cave into media panic or the doom and gloom warnings from politicians.

    From the very beginning of all this, most lockdown and mask proponents have been vehemently against letting states make their own decisions. If they really thought they were right, they should have welcomed a demonstration of it by letting a state go mask and lockdown free and then pointing to how the dire results they were predicting actually came to pass. Their desire to keep everyone in lockstep doing the same thing and their hysterical reaction when a state wanted to do something different is an indication that they were afraid of being exposed.

    Replies: @Corvinus

    How about letting local communities make their own decisions? I thought conservatives were supportive.

    Florida Governor De Santis threatened to pull available doses to communities if officials there criticized his distribution plan and forced the end of community mask mandates.

    Austin and Travis County public health leaders recently announced they would continue to require masks, even though Governor Abbott (Texas) forbade local authorities from superseding his order.

    • Replies: @anon
    @Corvinus

    How about letting local communities make their own decisions?

    What was it you wrote last summer about California beach closings, again?

    lol

    , @Mark G.
    @Corvinus


    How about letting local communities make their own decisions?
     
    Corvinus, I thought you were a liberal. So you don't agree with your fellow liberals, most of whom believe in centralization of all power in Washington D.C.?

    Letting things be decided at a state level does allow a comparison between different methods of combating the epidemic. I think that is ultimately a good thing because more effective practices can be discovered and adopted. Having decisions made on a county level would probably not provide much additional information in that area. I would not be against decisions made at a state level, though, with a provision added that individual counties could opt out and set their own requirements. In fact this is exactly what my state of Indiana has done. The Republican governor set a state policy but individual counties can modify that. Marion county, home of Indianapolis where I live, has done that. The head of the county health department here along with the Indianapolis mayor has made the argument that densely populated urban areas or areas with large numbers of high risk groups such as poor minorities like Indianapolis should be allowed to have a different policy. I find that a valid argument.

    In the last week, though, the county has announced most restrictions will end. There has been a belated realization that this has been very damaging to the local economy and especially hurt many poor people who lost their jobs. Middle class people can often telework whereas the poor often work jobs where this can't be done so lockdowns especially harm them. Since some governors, mostly Republican, rebelled against national restrictions and set their own it has become noticeable that unlocked down areas don't do much worse so the intellectual case against lockdowns has collapsed. Even the Democrat mayors of big cities have to accept that and, like our Democrat Indianapolis mayor, are now ending restrictions. Once they have all been ended, I would be for letting individual business owners make their own mask and social distancing requirements. If a liberal business owner wants masks forever for customers, he can make that a rule for his business. If it causes a loss of business and bankruptcy, though, he shouldn't be bailed out by the government with it paid for by everyone else.

    Replies: @Corvinus

  282. @MGB
    @Mike Tre

    I have not checked recent stats but there was an article in the FT about a week ago questioning the necessity of vaccinating 12-15 year olds given that there were only a couple of hundred deaths attributed to COVID in the 0-18 category, that out of a population of about 78 million. More recorded deaths in that age group from auto accidents or drowning during the same time frame. Come to think of it maybe the Chinese did release the virus knowing how the likes of Sailer and Unz would react, conducting psychological warfare on their own grandkids. Used to be grandparents and parents sacrificing for the kids. The social security crowd has turned that dynamic on its head.

    Replies: @Paleo Liberal

    There are reasons to vaccinate kids:

    They are carriers of the disease.

    1. I know of several cases in which a kid picked up COVID from school or whatever, and next thing you know COVID is spreading through the family. In one of those families there were grandparents around who were close to 90. Fortunately, the grandparents were able to get out of there before they got sick.

    2. Having a bunch of disease-ridden kids around means the teachers are more likely to get COVID. The vaccines are NOT 100% effective. Vaccinate teachers could still get COVID.

    3. There are people who for various health reasons either can’t get vaxxed or else the vax doesn’t work well. For example, not long ago a local 73 year old woman with dementia and all sorts of health issues was taking meds which compromised her immunity. She got vaxxed. Then, she had to go to the ER for some reason. She probably got COVID in the ER. Sadly, she died.

    Also:

    4. Not all kids will have mild or asymptomatic cases of COVID. A 17 year old local kid sadly died of COVID. Deaths are not common among kids, but they happen.

    5. Some kids cannot be vaccinated, same as #3 above.

    6. Having more people vaxxed increases the odds of herd immunity.

    I can see the reasoning behind not vaccinating young children, that is the side effects may be worse than COVID for some kids. We simply don’t have that information.

    But, there are risks in not vaxxing the kids. We need to be honest about those, when weighing the relative risks.

  283. @AnotherDad
    @TomSchmidt


    But you are long-term right, except that COVID has accelerated collapsing fertility by making housing more expensive. And by transferring wealth from young healthy people who might have children to sicker older people who won’t.
     
    I do think the lockdown nonsense may well kill more babies from being born than it kills old fogies off.

    Which--speaking as an old fogey nationalist--is sad. I'd rather die younger with more grandchildren than dodder off into a long long twilight with fewer. What's important is who/what lives on after me--i've already done "the good stuff".

    ~~

    That said, the actual effects of covid--the virus--on housing should be fertility positive. I.e. increasing supply by killing off some current occupants. It's not the Black Death ... but it has freed up some housing.

    What's driving up housing costs is
    a) the lockdowns
    -- increasing lumber prices
    -- driving people out of blue state hell holes to red state freedom; (my Florida whitetopia has gone fricking nuts, my house is worth a couple hundred thousand more just this year)

    but much more importantly
    b) money printing
    --the flood of money and basement interest rates have sent prices soaring.


    I'm a broken record, but we need policies that focus on the nation's future--affordable family formation:
    -- end immigration (super-charging job and housing availability)
    -- kill off taxation of families with children (eugenically, deductions only not welfare)
    -- voucher off public education
    -- competency tests in lieu of costly college credentialism

    It's not a hard problem to make middle class family life affordable and pleasant again. It's just that we have a nasty "elite"--whose driving ethos is looting--hostile to flyover white-gentiles actually having children and living their lives according to their traditional culture in their traditional nation.

    Replies: @Jonathan Mason, @TomSchmidt

    I think it is much more low interest rates that have elevated house prices, because when monthly payments go down, people can afford to borrow more and still be able to make the payments.

    Inflated home prices is great for the real estate industry because real estate sales people are paid as a percentage of the total value of the sale, not as a percentage of the equity which the homeowner has in the home, (or on a flat fee basis which seems more reasonable to me.)

    Printing money certainly devalues the international exchange rate of the dollar a bit against other currencies, except for the fact that other currencies are also printing more money just negating the effect.

    I doubt whether printing say $5,000 per family in the United States can make the price of a house go up $100,000, as that $5,000 is probably only two or three monthly mortgage payments.

    The newly printed money is probably only compensating for the new money that was not created due to a building slowdown during the Covid-19 epidemic.

    Building new homes effectively creates money, because banks can then loan out money that did not previously exist as mortgages with the homes as security.

    Inflation of home values is one of those ill winds that greatly benefits some at the expense of others. When an existing home buyer can adjust their interest rate downwards while their home simultaneously increases in potential selling value, they are quids in.

    And if you want something that will really cheer you up, think about all those Haitian home buyers who will be able to sell up and take early retirement, then move back to Haiti, build a mansion, and live on their Social Security and rents.

  284. @Mr. Anon
    @Bardon Kaldian

    I'm suspicious of these vaccines too, but this business about SM-102 is rooted in a misunderstanding. SM-102 is one of the lipids used to encapsulate the mRNA chain.

    From that MSDS you linked to:

    "Hazard-determining components of labeling: Chloroform"

    The product in question that the MSDS refers to is this SM-102 lipid suspended in chloroform, presumably for preservation (to keep it from getting rancid). And according to the company, this product is only for laboratory use, not clinical. If you look at the warnings, the biggest one is flammability, because chloroform is highly flammable. Whatever side-effects the Moderna vax has, I don't think one of them is spontaneous human combustion.

    I don't know how they prepare and distribute SM-102 to the vaccine manufacturers. Maybe it's shipped cold. Or maybe Moderna decants off the chloroform and there is some small residual amount in the vax (which might be a health concern). I don't know. But it's not like they are injecting people with straight chloroform.

    Replies: @Bardon Kaldian

    Read carefully Cayman Chemical statement. They speak about Chloroform, but when it comes to SM 102, they are very cautious:

    https://www.caymanchem.com/news/sm-102-statement

    Cayman Chemical Company, Inc. (Cayman) develops and manufactures chemical compounds for research use only (RUO) and has a separate business division that produces small molecules as Active Pharmaceutical Ingredients (API) for human and veterinary use.

    RUO-grade products, such as Cayman’s SM-102 (Item # 33474), are intended only for in vitro or animal (exploratory or preclinical) use. In addition to SM-102, Cayman sells many other RUO-grade products that are used by academic and industrial scientists worldwide in the preclinical exploration of novel therapies to address diseases such as cancer, immune disorders, inflammation, diabetes, and infectious diseases.

    APIs used for commercial pharmaceutical manufacturing adhere to strict guidelines under FDA-regulated Good Manufacture Practice (GMP) protocols to ensure their safety for human and veterinary use. Chemicals under the same name can have differing designations such as grade or formulation that are defined by their manufacturing protocols and intended use. This designation is indicated on the Safety Data Sheet (SDS) included with each Cayman product.

    SDSs are required to present the content and hazards of each ingredient in a shipped chemical product. The SDS for Cayman’s SM-102 (Item # 33474) accurately represents that the mixture of chemicals in the product are 90% chloroform (a common solvent) and 10% SM-102. While it is a common solvent, chloroform has several known serious hazards, which have been included on Cayman’s SDS. Neither the National Institute for Occupational Safety and Health (NIOSH), Registry of Toxic Effects of Chemical Substances (RTECS), or the European Chemicals Agency (ECHA) Classification and Labelling Inventory list any hazards associated with SM-102.

    So, what CC say is:

    1. we are using SM 102 only in research

    2. NSIOH etc. did not find SM 102 to be toxic.

    This is an interesting formulation. They are, as it were, publicly stating they have no responsibility for use of SM 102 in, say, vaccination- because they use it only in research, on animals; and that US government agencies did not find SM 102 to be toxic.

    In other words, they are washing their hands, to exculpate themselves in advance if something goes wrong with Moderna.

    • Replies: @Mr. Anon
    @Bardon Kaldian


    Read carefully Cayman Chemical statement. They speak about Chloroform, but when it comes to SM 102, they are very cautious:
     
    I did read it carefully, as evidently you and many others did not.

    SM-102 is a lipid. The particular product in question is that lipid in a solution of chloroform. The stated hazards associated with it are from the chloroform, not the lipid. The stuff they use in the vaccine is almost certainly not swimming in chloroform.

    Maybe that lipid is dangerous in some way, but the manufacturer is not asserting that.

    I'm opposed to these vaccines, or rather, I am opposed to their mandatory use. I am suspicious of them, of their purpose, and of their long-term safety. But grasping at Infowars-tier stuff like this just makes you look silly and undermines your own argument.
  285. @Travis
    Year - US Deaths –
    2015 – 2,712,630
    2016 - 2,744,248
    2017 – 2,813,503
    2018 – 2,839,205
    2019 – 2,892,122
    2020 - 3,358,814

    2020 had about 450,000 more deaths than 2019. During 2020, COVID-19 was listed as the underlying or contributing cause of 377,883 deaths. It seems that Steve believes this number is an under-count. Yet there is little evidence that many COVID deaths went unreported. https://www.cdc.gov/mmwr/volumes/70/wr/mm7014e1.htm

    It is sad that so many Americans died from CV, but sadder that we destroyed the economy, closed schools and businesses for no benefit. There is no evidence that the so-called lockdowns prevented the spread of COVID. Yet there is much evidence that the lockdowns did nothing to reduce the spread of coronavirus but certainly contributed to some excess deaths in 2020. If the CDC numbers are accurate we had 450,000 excess deaths in 2020 and 377,883 were attributed to COVID, so 70,000 excess deaths were due to the lockdowns and resulting social isolation and civil unrest.

    Replies: @Bill Jones

    If the CDC numbers are accurate

    Thanks for the laugh.

  286. @Corvinus
    @Mark G.

    How about letting local communities make their own decisions? I thought conservatives were supportive.

    Florida Governor De Santis threatened to pull available doses to communities if officials there criticized his distribution plan and forced the end of community mask mandates.

    Austin and Travis County public health leaders recently announced they would continue to require masks, even though Governor Abbott (Texas) forbade local authorities from superseding his order.

    Replies: @anon, @Mark G.

    How about letting local communities make their own decisions?

    What was it you wrote last summer about California beach closings, again?

    lol

  287. MGB says:
    @Mr. Anon
    @HA


    Again, for like the third time this thread, suicides went DOWN in 2020.
     
    Or they were just reclassified as "unintentional overdoses":

    https://www.nytimes.com/2021/04/15/health/coronavirus-suicide-cdc.html

    The decline came even as the number of unintentional overdose deaths rose dramatically during the pandemic. Some overdoses are classified as suicides; there is debate among researchers as to how many ought to be included.
     

    Replies: @MGB, @HA

    Suicide statistics are suspect under any circumstances. Consideration given to family reputation, concern over life insurance benefits for a wife who just lost her breadwinner, etc. can influence a ‘suicide’ finding as much as any forensic evidence. In any event, people hanging by the neck from their chandelier with a note pinned to their shirt is the rare case. As a matter of common sense, you would expect suicides to increase as social interactions ground to a halt, and people are contacting legal aid to stop their eviction, whether or not the death is classified as a suicide, or from someone unintentionally medicating themselves to death. And there is all this supposed statistical, scientific certainty about Covid deaths. What do we know about rates for obesity, diabetes, hypertension, etc. during the Covid period? Who’s tracking that shit? If there really is another wave of Covid, or some variant thereof, are you better protected from a serious infection if you are obese and have had the vaccine, or an unvaccinated, healthy specimen? The government scared people into hiding in their basement. Why not scare them into a daily hike through the woods? That’s the grotesque state of affairs, that people have been convinced that health is defined by access to pharmaceuticals.

    I have been to a number of sporting events for kids now that things have opened up a bit. Most of them can’t run five yards without having a respiratory event, and from the looks of things their parents aren’t any better off despite all of the Peloton commercials.

    • Replies: @Steve Sailer
    @MGB

    Case and Deaton came up with the supercategory of "deaths of despair:" suicides, drug overdoses, and alcoholic cirrhosis. That might be the best indicator, although drinking yourself to death can take longer than the first two.

    , @HA
    @MGB

    "Suicide statistics are suspect under any circumstances."

    So break it down by category. Absent a mob hit staged to look like a suicide, a self-inflicted death by gunshot is not all that suspect. Has there been some anomalous upshot in those? What is so shameful about Covid despair that makes people want to disguise those suicides as something else, more so than from other causes?

    "In any event, people hanging by the neck from their chandelier with a note pinned to their shirt is the rare case."

    Actually, gunshot suicides are fairly common. And hanging, be it from a chandelier or anything else, is actually the most common method among suicide completers [in one study from Korea]. That being the case, my assumption at this point is that you're just making up stuff.

    And for what it's worth, Canada has also reported that the number of suicides went down last year.

    Replies: @MGB

  288. @Thoughts
    @Sean

    Germany is pretty impoverished.

    I've been to Germany recently, don't know where I was as I wasn't driving, but the decrepitness of everything I saw was a bit surprising.

    Germans are fat, their wages are low, and their houses and smaller cities look like sh*t. Plenty of Mexicans abound...I mean Turks...

    Germany resembles Echo Park more than anything else. You'll occasionally see a hot blond teen near an H&M. Occasionally. Very occasionally.

    Replies: @but an humble craftsman, @Sean, @China Japan and Korea Bromance of Three Kingdoms

    Disagree. Berlin is somewhat meh for obvious reasons (bombed out in WW2), but small/medium cities in the wealthier south, Heidelberg, Baden Baden, Freiburg are as charming and idyllic as advertised. You can judge for yourselves

    Multikulti is obviously dubious in value. Economic growth is tepid and dependent upon their now biggest trade partner, China. They are behind in key technologies like 5G and AI, hence constant hand-wringing, recent online comment on the newspaper Die Zeit that made waves in Sinosphere was

    Lieber ein Vasall der USA, als ‘Sklave‘ Chinas
    Better a vassal of USA than a ‘slave’ of China’s

    Merkel has been very pro-China business, but the Green party is running against Blauäugigkeit (naivety or literally: blue eyed-ness) towards CCP Commies.

    The talent is pretty solid; blondes are in the minority as everywhere in Europe except maybe Scandinavia. The key difference with America is that a lot of more of them actually majored in STEM.

  289. • Agree: Mr. Anon
    • Thanks: Achmed E. Newman
  290. @Western
    @Buzz Mohawk

    I got the Covid vaccine because my dad kept bugging me about it. I only started to get the flu shot for the same reason. The last time I could even have been sick enough to maybe have the flu was 30 years ago.

    It's amazing how people will allow strangers to inject them with something. I had a cat scan 15 years ago and I showed up and complete strangers inject me with something and I just let them. It is kind of weird when you think about it. The same goes for food. We just let strangers in another room out of our sight make our food and we just eat it without thinking about it.

    I didn't have any major side effects from the covid shot so far after the first dose but I regret getting it. I wouldn't do it if I could go back. I only did it because my dad bugged me and the propaganda in the media.

    Replies: @Anon

    I didn’t have any major side effects from the covid shot so far after the first dose but I regret getting it.

    What do you regret about it?

    • Replies: @Western
    @Anon

    Just the idea that I could have problems down the road from side effects. It is unlikely, but I would rather not think about it. I am healthy so it is unlikely that I would have serious problems if I caught Covid.

    Replies: @TomSchmidt

    , @Western
    @Anon

    I don't think statistically it was the smart thing to do because these vaccines are unknown. Maybe I am wrong and it was the correct thing to do. But I am not obese and have no illnesses. I get regular exercise. My cholesterol and blood pressure and good.

  291. HA says:
    @Alvin
    @HA

    You don't need to be an expert in immunology or epidemiology to understand and analyze statistics. The JAMA article you cite doesn't adjust for population growth (as far as I can tell) or adjust for age of population. If you take those two considerations into account, 2020 mortality is similar to 2004 mortality. I would be more interested in deaths by age.

    We also know that almost any death can be labeled a "Covid" death on the certificate, because of huge bonuses to hospitals, including deaths from gun shot wounds, car accidents, falling off a ladder, and anything else badged with a positive PCR. CDC itself said 6% (more recently 5%) of "Covid" deaths are "Covid only" deaths and average Covid deaths had 3.5 comorbidities. In Italy, that "Covid only" figure is 1%.

    Nothing in your comments or the JAMA article disproves lockdown policies led to an increase in deaths due to their many disruptions to normal life. Sweden, with no lockdowns but disproportionate nursing home population, had excess deaths that were average compared to the rest of Europe and less than many of the most extreme lockdown and mask countries.

    Going back to that JAMA table, there is significant increase in "unintentional injuries". How many of those might be drug overdose and suicide related? How many so-called Covid deaths were suicides? Also keep in mind that we haven't felt the full effects of the lockdowns, which could take another few years. It'll be interesting to see the number of deaths, especially among the younger populations, over the next several years.

    Replies: @HA

    “You don’t need to be an expert in immunology or epidemiology to understand and analyze statistics. The JAMA article you cite doesn’t adjust for population growth (as far as I can tell) or adjust for age of population.”

    Look to the CDC analysis for that. That’s where the above graph was taken from. Or look at what Europeans have done with their excess death rate studies. It’s a similar story. Or do your own research instead of just whining and moaning like the fragile little flower who can’t deal with the fact that his son missed out on seeing his school elect their very first trans-gendered prom “queen” or how they had to move their first annual George Floyd memorial flash mobs to TikTok, or whatever else he missed out on. I’m so sorry 500,000 dead people got in the way of all that indoctrination to the extent that it had to be shifted to Zoom instead. “We may be condemning our descendants to a poorer future and shorter lives” you say? Oh, cry me a river. I’m sure the generation that spent days locked up in air raid shelters dodging from the Nazis look down from heaven and weep at the injustice.

    Don’t try to rationalize an utter inability to deal with actual data by trying to rope in “what is said in the West about Putin” in order to rev up the cheering section. Last I heard, Putin (and Netanyahu and that Chechen guy with the golden handgun) were all 100% on board with vaccination. If you want to know why people think the Covid truthers are loons blubbering in their echo chamber, look no further than comments like that. Sailer actually produced a graph — the same graph that the “just a flu” bros were touting when they said it proved Covid was a nothingburger, but now want to dump all over. Not everyone’s memory is that short.

    And the reason I cited the JAMA article was that it showed how suicides decreased relative to last year. That’s two raw 2019 and 2020 numbers — no “adjustment” needed.

  292. HA says:
    @Mr. Anon
    @HA


    Again, for like the third time this thread, suicides went DOWN in 2020.
     
    Or they were just reclassified as "unintentional overdoses":

    https://www.nytimes.com/2021/04/15/health/coronavirus-suicide-cdc.html

    The decline came even as the number of unintentional overdose deaths rose dramatically during the pandemic. Some overdoses are classified as suicides; there is debate among researchers as to how many ought to be included.
     

    Replies: @MGB, @HA

    “Or they were just reclassified as ‘unintentional overdoses’”

    So maybe compare the suicide by gunshot numbers in the two years. I.e. as hard as it is, do some actual work instead of just grasping at straws. If you had bothered to click a few more times you’d see that so far it looks like 2020 will exceed 2019’s 76K suicide death toll (already a record) by about 20K.

    Yeah, it’s not good news, but good luck stretching that to 500K. Maybe if you whine and moan like a pathetic geezer, people will overlook the fact that you’re just grasping at whatever headline you can find in the desperate hope that everyone else is as pathetically lazy as you are and won’t bother to call your bluff and dig deeper. It didn’t work this time, but then, it’s a lot easier than actually doing some real analysis.

  293. HA says:
    @botazefa
    @HA


    I’m just pointing out that the reason that the pro-lockdown people have prevailed is that the anti-lockdown types can’t be bothered to come up with anything substantive.
     
    The pro-lockdown people have prevailed, thus far, not because their argument is better. They've prevailed because our plutocratic oligarchy manipulated media to make it appear as if lockdowns and masking are popular ideas. They memory holed counter arguments and people.

    They even managed to bully the CDC into reversing its position on masks.

    This has never been about the merit of the arguments. It's been about power. It has been about politics. It has been about greed.

    High-schoolers are — from we can see so far — at minimal risk from COVID, that’s true. But they sill spread it to others who have a rougher time with it
     
    .

    The burden is on you to articulate how someone not at risk of covid infection is somehow a spreader. I say that children, including teenagers, are unlikely spreaders.

    The concept of asymptomatic spread is as novel as this coronavirus. It's nothing more than unproven speculation at this point.

    All the costs required to keep those ventilators humming override the loss of popcorn revenue and future NBA earnings that will have been missed. I mean, it’s not even a contest.
     
    A value judgement you'd impose on the rest of us?

    I say the cost ain't worth it. The cost ain't worth it even if masks and lockdowns were 100% effective. A small population of people at the end of their lives doesn't have the right to impose so much burden on others; or have government burden us on their behalf. Our Constitution exists precisely to prevent minority abuse of the masses.

    That our leadership has imposed obviously pointless burdens on the healthy, to save the old and sick from a novel cold virus, is a change to decades of public health policy. A novel approach. Not something done ever before. Not during the Spanish flu. Not during polio. Never before.

    The burden is not on those of us who cling to the traditional ways of handling these things. The burden is on those true believers in their moral authority to make a compelling value proposition that the herculean global efforts to save 5million are worth it. Hard value proposition to make given that the 5million are already dead and nothing that public health authorities have done saved them.

    You're right, it's no contest. And the costs of this global nightmare are only just beginning to present themselves.

    Replies: @HA

    “The pro-lockdown people have prevailed, thus far, not because their argument is better. They’ve prevailed because our plutocratic oligarchy manipulated media to make it appear as if lockdowns and masking are popular ideas.”

    That’s right. The plutocrats all got together and decided to “burn down the economy” or whatever else people around here are saying that lockdowns did. That seems just the kind of thing that plutocratic oligarchs would do. Makes total sense!

    And just for good measure, they of course roped in the Russians and Chinese and Cubans and the Iranians to get on board with all this vaccination hype. How sneaky of Big Pharma to cover their tracks like that!

    No, if you ever want to steer it back to reality, the reason the pro-lockdown people prevailed is that those opposed to them have resorted to nutty anti-vaxx conspiracy theories like yours to make their case.

    Again, the Covid truthers can scream at Sailer all they want. In the end, he had graphs and he had data. That’s the key difference. I see precious little of that from the nothingburger crowd (though they were happy to make hay of the same kind of graph Sailer has above before the spikes started happening). I get it, math is hard. Epidemiology and immunology are a chore. Why go through all that labor to actually understand what you’re talking about when you could instead demand that your opinions on something you clearly know nothing about should count anyway because….democracy, or something like that? Or else, handwave and toss up whatever comes off the top of your head like it’s just as good as something that actual epidemiologists spent years learning how to put together and hope that no one calls your bluff and blows your lame counterargument out of the water.

    Oh, and with regard to my previous comment, the link for the 2020 suicide forecast (indicating it would be about 20K higher than 2019’s record year) wasn’t formatted correctly I’ll try again. Or else, maybe people can just do their own research for a change.

    • Replies: @HA
    @HA

    "Oh, and with regard to my previous comment, the link for the 2020 suicide..."

    Sorry, for any who actually bothered with checking out the link -- though it's painfully obvious at this point that hardly anyone bothers -- that was DRUG OVERDOSES that went up by 20K relative to the previous year, whereas suicides went down. Same goes for my earlier reply where I mention "suicide by gunshot". Again, if you're confused by any of that, click on the actual links and do your own research.

    More generally, if you want to have an opinion on whether we should cut off all health care for anyone over 72, or for chubby people, or whomever else, that's your right. I don't agree with it, but I get it -- we live in a democracy and have to at least pretend that idiotic ideas like yours deserve to be heard.

    However, I don't need your "opinion" on how many people died of Covid in 2020, or the half-life of a neutrino, or the Riemann hypothesis, if you haven't bothered to do the gruntwork -- and don't give me any excuses about how it won't fit in the margins -- just because democracy demands that you be heard or whatever. If you have to have someone "articulate" for you "how someone not at risk of covid infection is somehow a spreader" (paging Typhoid Mary), then your opinions on Covid transmission don't matter. At the very least, point us to the research of someone who HAS done the gruntwork.

    So again, scream at Sailer all you want. Maybe he doesn't "get it" that old and fat and brown people shouldn't count in the grand scheme of things, or that 500K deaths is, to paraphrase Stalin, a statistic, give or take. And note the number of dead is far less relevant than the number that would have died had we done nothing, though again, I want to see some actual expertise and evidence of actual gruntwork before you try and pretend all those forecasts were wrong, (I mean, aside from those by the likes of "only 10K dead" Wittkowski and Ioannidis and all the other "just a flu" gurus who have come and gone.) But as for the rest of the shoddy what-ifs I see tossed up in this thread, do some actual research. Dig some actual numbers up and put them together in a coherent fashion, rather than just throw up whatever counterarguments spill out of your head in order to leave a cloud of ink like a cornered squid.

    , @botazefa
    @HA


    No, if you ever want to steer it back to reality, the reason the pro-lockdown people prevailed is that those opposed to them have resorted to nutty anti-vaxx conspiracy theories like yours to make their case.
     
    Where so you get the idea I'm an antivaxxer?

    Oh, and with regard to my previous comment, the link for the 2020 suicide forecast
     
    Maybe you're commenting too much because I disn't mention suicide stats

    That’s right. The plutocrats all got together and decided to “burn down the economy” or whatever else people around here are saying that lockdowns did.
     
    That's not really what I meant, is it? You seem to be dodging the meat of my critique, which is the burden of the maskholes and lockdowners to show that this novel coronavirus warranted their historically novel and authoritarian choices. My sense is that if we'd done nothing other than encourage good hygeine and protecting the vulnerable where they live we'd have roughly the same body count.

    Replies: @HA

  294. @Corvinus
    @Mark G.

    How about letting local communities make their own decisions? I thought conservatives were supportive.

    Florida Governor De Santis threatened to pull available doses to communities if officials there criticized his distribution plan and forced the end of community mask mandates.

    Austin and Travis County public health leaders recently announced they would continue to require masks, even though Governor Abbott (Texas) forbade local authorities from superseding his order.

    Replies: @anon, @Mark G.

    How about letting local communities make their own decisions?

    Corvinus, I thought you were a liberal. So you don’t agree with your fellow liberals, most of whom believe in centralization of all power in Washington D.C.?

    Letting things be decided at a state level does allow a comparison between different methods of combating the epidemic. I think that is ultimately a good thing because more effective practices can be discovered and adopted. Having decisions made on a county level would probably not provide much additional information in that area. I would not be against decisions made at a state level, though, with a provision added that individual counties could opt out and set their own requirements. In fact this is exactly what my state of Indiana has done. The Republican governor set a state policy but individual counties can modify that. Marion county, home of Indianapolis where I live, has done that. The head of the county health department here along with the Indianapolis mayor has made the argument that densely populated urban areas or areas with large numbers of high risk groups such as poor minorities like Indianapolis should be allowed to have a different policy. I find that a valid argument.

    In the last week, though, the county has announced most restrictions will end. There has been a belated realization that this has been very damaging to the local economy and especially hurt many poor people who lost their jobs. Middle class people can often telework whereas the poor often work jobs where this can’t be done so lockdowns especially harm them. Since some governors, mostly Republican, rebelled against national restrictions and set their own it has become noticeable that unlocked down areas don’t do much worse so the intellectual case against lockdowns has collapsed. Even the Democrat mayors of big cities have to accept that and, like our Democrat Indianapolis mayor, are now ending restrictions. Once they have all been ended, I would be for letting individual business owners make their own mask and social distancing requirements. If a liberal business owner wants masks forever for customers, he can make that a rule for his business. If it causes a loss of business and bankruptcy, though, he shouldn’t be bailed out by the government with it paid for by everyone else.

    • Replies: @Corvinus
    @Mark G.

    “Corvinus, I thought you were a liberal. So you don’t agree with your fellow liberals, most of whom believe in centralization of all power in Washington D.C.?”

    I am a white American man married with children who makes his own decisions about politics, race, and culture, thank you very much.

    “Letting things be decided at a state level does allow a comparison between different methods of combating the epidemic.”

    So, it is a centralization of power by Republican governors over the objections of local officials who know what is best for their community based on citizen preferences. Good to know.

    “There has been a belated realization that this has been very damaging to the local economy and especially hurt many poor people who lost their jobs."

    That’s fine and dandy. But what about those counties who believe to the contrary, who do not want a meddling governor interfering? Again, I thought conservatives enable people to make choices best suited for their situation.

    Replies: @anon, @Mark G.

  295. Anon[233] • Disclaimer says:
    @HA
    @Anon

    "Cancellation of his senior season of varsity basketball (his lifelong passion), Zoom classes for the last couple months of high school, no prom,...Based on his age and health, COVID poses no risk to him at all...I’d like some of the pro-restriction crowd, like HA, to walk us through the moral logic under which..."

    You can call me "pro-lockdown" if it makes you feel better about your fragile little world with all its first-world-problems like missed proms, but that's all that's going on here. I'm not happy about lockdowns, I'm just pointing out that the reason that the pro-lockdown people have prevailed is that the anti-lockdown types can't be bothered to come up with anything substantive. I know you don't like to hear that, but give me a break. You want to pretend it's all the suicides and "despair" that's causing that graph to spike up? Seriously? That's no better than the people who were claiming this time last year that the ER personnel were all crisis actors.

    And with regard to (oh, the horror) a lost varsity basketball season, I realize this is going to come as a shock for you, but for most sane people -- even soulless government drones -- death overrides "lost senior basketball season". Yes, even if senior prom is canceled. All the costs required to keep those ventilators humming override the loss of popcorn revenue and future NBA earnings that will have been missed. I mean, it's not even a contest. Yes, most of these dead people were old, and fat, and brown, but for whatever crazy reason, people in the ER rooms are not allowed to simply say "Nah,...not worth it" and go back to business as usual.

    High-schoolers are -- from we can see so far -- at minimal risk from COVID, that's true. But they sill spread it to others who have a rougher time with it.

    If you want to change our society into adopting a "health care should only be for the young, non-obese, and non-brown" kind of system, have at it. Put it on a bumper sticker and see who votes for it. I.e. come up with a genuine plan. I'm sure the Bloomberg types who want to tax sugary sodas would love to see some legislation to get people skinnier, so maybe you can team up.

    But otherwise, whining and moaning about your fragile little flowers who missed a baseball season is not going to impress those who note the hundreds of thousands extra in corpses. Learn to prioritize. Again, not even a contest.

    Replies: @J.Ross, @botazefa, @Jonathan Mason, @Anon

    My opposition to the lockdowns doesn’t obligate me to support every bad argument made by anyone who opposed lockdowns. Just as your support for school closures doesn’t obligate you to agree with the paranoid moms who thought their eight-year-olds were going to die of COVID.

    Anyway, you didn’t really address my point. You can ridicule any of my examples, but what they add up to is a formative year of life effectively taken away, exchanged for a pathetic, isolated virtual world. That’s a considerable loss.

    You agree that young people are at very low risk. That means that the restrictions they’ve endured have been sacrifices on behalf of others. Do you acknowledge that? Should they get any credit or recompense for it?

    Maybe we should balance the scales of justice with COVID reparations: a substantial one-time tax on people over the age of 65, with the proceeds distributed to people under 30.

    • Replies: @HA
    @Anon

    "Anyway, you didn’t really address my point. You can ridicule any of my examples, but what they add up to is a formative year of life effectively taken away, exchanged for a pathetic, isolated virtual world."

    I addressed your "point, if you want to call it that, in exactly the way that it deserved. Your son's problem is not a missed year of life spent in a "pathetic, isolated virtual world." His problem is that neither of his parents -- despite having raised a teenage boy -- ever managed to grow a spine, so that as a result, he is now left wondering whether saving a million lives or more is worth giving up prom.

    Plenty of people suffered in serious ways in this last year. They lost jobs, they lost relatives, they lost the ability to travel and see people they loved and who needed them. About 500K of them lost their lives, as much as you want to shift the spotlight elsewhere. In comparison with them -- or, again, with all those who had to sit in subway tunnels and air raid shelters with REAL masks strapped on during the lockdowns of past generations -- the grief that a high school jock had to endure over losing the "right" to whatever perks high school jocks of earlier years enjoyed doesn't strike me as worth whining about all that much. The same goes for the notion that he is the one that now deserves a tax break, as opposed to all those who suffered in far worse ways.

    To the extent that I'm the one who seems to you to be heartless or uncaring in this scenario means that Junior will lack for a lot more in life than you're even able to realize. And neither Fauci nor Gates can be blamed for that.

    So in that sense, I do truly pity your son and admit he got a raw deal.

    Replies: @Mr. Anon

  296. @MGB
    @Mr. Anon

    Suicide statistics are suspect under any circumstances. Consideration given to family reputation, concern over life insurance benefits for a wife who just lost her breadwinner, etc. can influence a 'suicide' finding as much as any forensic evidence. In any event, people hanging by the neck from their chandelier with a note pinned to their shirt is the rare case. As a matter of common sense, you would expect suicides to increase as social interactions ground to a halt, and people are contacting legal aid to stop their eviction, whether or not the death is classified as a suicide, or from someone unintentionally medicating themselves to death. And there is all this supposed statistical, scientific certainty about Covid deaths. What do we know about rates for obesity, diabetes, hypertension, etc. during the Covid period? Who's tracking that shit? If there really is another wave of Covid, or some variant thereof, are you better protected from a serious infection if you are obese and have had the vaccine, or an unvaccinated, healthy specimen? The government scared people into hiding in their basement. Why not scare them into a daily hike through the woods? That's the grotesque state of affairs, that people have been convinced that health is defined by access to pharmaceuticals.

    I have been to a number of sporting events for kids now that things have opened up a bit. Most of them can't run five yards without having a respiratory event, and from the looks of things their parents aren't any better off despite all of the Peloton commercials.

    Replies: @Steve Sailer, @HA

    Case and Deaton came up with the supercategory of “deaths of despair:” suicides, drug overdoses, and alcoholic cirrhosis. That might be the best indicator, although drinking yourself to death can take longer than the first two.

  297. HA says:
    @HA
    @botazefa

    "The pro-lockdown people have prevailed, thus far, not because their argument is better. They’ve prevailed because our plutocratic oligarchy manipulated media to make it appear as if lockdowns and masking are popular ideas."

    That's right. The plutocrats all got together and decided to "burn down the economy" or whatever else people around here are saying that lockdowns did. That seems just the kind of thing that plutocratic oligarchs would do. Makes total sense!

    And just for good measure, they of course roped in the Russians and Chinese and Cubans and the Iranians to get on board with all this vaccination hype. How sneaky of Big Pharma to cover their tracks like that!

    No, if you ever want to steer it back to reality, the reason the pro-lockdown people prevailed is that those opposed to them have resorted to nutty anti-vaxx conspiracy theories like yours to make their case.

    Again, the Covid truthers can scream at Sailer all they want. In the end, he had graphs and he had data. That's the key difference. I see precious little of that from the nothingburger crowd (though they were happy to make hay of the same kind of graph Sailer has above before the spikes started happening). I get it, math is hard. Epidemiology and immunology are a chore. Why go through all that labor to actually understand what you're talking about when you could instead demand that your opinions on something you clearly know nothing about should count anyway because....democracy, or something like that? Or else, handwave and toss up whatever comes off the top of your head like it's just as good as something that actual epidemiologists spent years learning how to put together and hope that no one calls your bluff and blows your lame counterargument out of the water.

    Oh, and with regard to my previous comment, the link for the 2020 suicide forecast (indicating it would be about 20K higher than 2019's record year) wasn't formatted correctly I'll try again. Or else, maybe people can just do their own research for a change.

    Replies: @HA, @botazefa

    “Oh, and with regard to my previous comment, the link for the 2020 suicide…”

    Sorry, for any who actually bothered with checking out the link — though it’s painfully obvious at this point that hardly anyone bothers — that was DRUG OVERDOSES that went up by 20K relative to the previous year, whereas suicides went down. Same goes for my earlier reply where I mention “suicide by gunshot”. Again, if you’re confused by any of that, click on the actual links and do your own research.

    More generally, if you want to have an opinion on whether we should cut off all health care for anyone over 72, or for chubby people, or whomever else, that’s your right. I don’t agree with it, but I get it — we live in a democracy and have to at least pretend that idiotic ideas like yours deserve to be heard.

    However, I don’t need your “opinion” on how many people died of Covid in 2020, or the half-life of a neutrino, or the Riemann hypothesis, if you haven’t bothered to do the gruntwork — and don’t give me any excuses about how it won’t fit in the margins — just because democracy demands that you be heard or whatever. If you have to have someone “articulate” for you “how someone not at risk of covid infection is somehow a spreader” (paging Typhoid Mary), then your opinions on Covid transmission don’t matter. At the very least, point us to the research of someone who HAS done the gruntwork.

    So again, scream at Sailer all you want. Maybe he doesn’t “get it” that old and fat and brown people shouldn’t count in the grand scheme of things, or that 500K deaths is, to paraphrase Stalin, a statistic, give or take. And note the number of dead is far less relevant than the number that would have died had we done nothing, though again, I want to see some actual expertise and evidence of actual gruntwork before you try and pretend all those forecasts were wrong, (I mean, aside from those by the likes of “only 10K dead” Wittkowski and Ioannidis and all the other “just a flu” gurus who have come and gone.) But as for the rest of the shoddy what-ifs I see tossed up in this thread, do some actual research. Dig some actual numbers up and put them together in a coherent fashion, rather than just throw up whatever counterarguments spill out of your head in order to leave a cloud of ink like a cornered squid.

  298. @HA
    @botazefa

    "The pro-lockdown people have prevailed, thus far, not because their argument is better. They’ve prevailed because our plutocratic oligarchy manipulated media to make it appear as if lockdowns and masking are popular ideas."

    That's right. The plutocrats all got together and decided to "burn down the economy" or whatever else people around here are saying that lockdowns did. That seems just the kind of thing that plutocratic oligarchs would do. Makes total sense!

    And just for good measure, they of course roped in the Russians and Chinese and Cubans and the Iranians to get on board with all this vaccination hype. How sneaky of Big Pharma to cover their tracks like that!

    No, if you ever want to steer it back to reality, the reason the pro-lockdown people prevailed is that those opposed to them have resorted to nutty anti-vaxx conspiracy theories like yours to make their case.

    Again, the Covid truthers can scream at Sailer all they want. In the end, he had graphs and he had data. That's the key difference. I see precious little of that from the nothingburger crowd (though they were happy to make hay of the same kind of graph Sailer has above before the spikes started happening). I get it, math is hard. Epidemiology and immunology are a chore. Why go through all that labor to actually understand what you're talking about when you could instead demand that your opinions on something you clearly know nothing about should count anyway because....democracy, or something like that? Or else, handwave and toss up whatever comes off the top of your head like it's just as good as something that actual epidemiologists spent years learning how to put together and hope that no one calls your bluff and blows your lame counterargument out of the water.

    Oh, and with regard to my previous comment, the link for the 2020 suicide forecast (indicating it would be about 20K higher than 2019's record year) wasn't formatted correctly I'll try again. Or else, maybe people can just do their own research for a change.

    Replies: @HA, @botazefa

    No, if you ever want to steer it back to reality, the reason the pro-lockdown people prevailed is that those opposed to them have resorted to nutty anti-vaxx conspiracy theories like yours to make their case.

    Where so you get the idea I’m an antivaxxer?

    Oh, and with regard to my previous comment, the link for the 2020 suicide forecast

    Maybe you’re commenting too much because I disn’t mention suicide stats

    That’s right. The plutocrats all got together and decided to “burn down the economy” or whatever else people around here are saying that lockdowns did.

    That’s not really what I meant, is it? You seem to be dodging the meat of my critique, which is the burden of the maskholes and lockdowners to show that this novel coronavirus warranted their historically novel and authoritarian choices. My sense is that if we’d done nothing other than encourage good hygeine and protecting the vulnerable where they live we’d have roughly the same body count.

    • Replies: @HA
    @botazefa

    "Maybe you’re commenting too much because I disn’t mention suicide stats..."

    No, I'm limited to 3 comments in an hour by this website, and therefore sometimes have to answer more than one comment at once. And if you or anyone else wants me to comment less, just don't reply to anything I say. That's just how it goes. I'll make do however the chips may fall.

    As for the supposed "meat" of your "critique", there is no meat there. To take just one of your objections, you seem to think that children are "not at risk of covid infection". That is not the case. They are as likely to get infected as anyone else. They won't get sick, by and large, and the viruses they shed will be fewer in number than those who get sicker, but the virus that they are infected with can still pass from them and onto others who are more likely to get sick. That, or the general notion of asymptomatic transmission -- is not something that anyone in this day and age (a century after Typhoid Mary) should find surprising. The fact that all this confuses you, and yet you and people like you are still presuming to tell the experts that they're getting it wrong, or that they know what Covid is really about and that despite their abject ignorance there is meat in their critiques is a far more worrying concern for this country, long term, Covid will likely ever be. There's a vaccine for Covid now. But Dunning-Kruger seems, as of yet, to be incurable.

    Replies: @botazefa

  299. @Anon
    @Western


    I didn’t have any major side effects from the covid shot so far after the first dose but I regret getting it.
     
    What do you regret about it?

    Replies: @Western, @Western

    Just the idea that I could have problems down the road from side effects. It is unlikely, but I would rather not think about it. I am healthy so it is unlikely that I would have serious problems if I caught Covid.

    • Replies: @TomSchmidt
    @Western

    There was a study reported in Nature in January where the scientists compared blood donated before COVID to the virus, checking to see if T Cells in the blood expressed any ability to recognize the peptides on the virus. The researchers found that 81% of samples showed T-Cell immunity: these people were likely to be in the "mild case" category. Of course, 19% of people were NOT in that category, and theoretically formed the group that died in large numbers from the virus, which did not even kill more than 90% of the over-75 crowd that got it.

    It would be great if a diagnostic blood test could show if you're in the unlucky 19%. If so, the mRNA therapy is a better bet, unless you've already survived COVID.

    Replies: @Western

  300. @Anon
    @Western


    I didn’t have any major side effects from the covid shot so far after the first dose but I regret getting it.
     
    What do you regret about it?

    Replies: @Western, @Western

    I don’t think statistically it was the smart thing to do because these vaccines are unknown. Maybe I am wrong and it was the correct thing to do. But I am not obese and have no illnesses. I get regular exercise. My cholesterol and blood pressure and good.

  301. HA says:
    @Anon
    @HA

    My opposition to the lockdowns doesn't obligate me to support every bad argument made by anyone who opposed lockdowns. Just as your support for school closures doesn't obligate you to agree with the paranoid moms who thought their eight-year-olds were going to die of COVID.

    Anyway, you didn't really address my point. You can ridicule any of my examples, but what they add up to is a formative year of life effectively taken away, exchanged for a pathetic, isolated virtual world. That's a considerable loss.

    You agree that young people are at very low risk. That means that the restrictions they've endured have been sacrifices on behalf of others. Do you acknowledge that? Should they get any credit or recompense for it?

    Maybe we should balance the scales of justice with COVID reparations: a substantial one-time tax on people over the age of 65, with the proceeds distributed to people under 30.

    Replies: @HA

    “Anyway, you didn’t really address my point. You can ridicule any of my examples, but what they add up to is a formative year of life effectively taken away, exchanged for a pathetic, isolated virtual world.”

    I addressed your “point, if you want to call it that, in exactly the way that it deserved. Your son’s problem is not a missed year of life spent in a “pathetic, isolated virtual world.” His problem is that neither of his parents — despite having raised a teenage boy — ever managed to grow a spine, so that as a result, he is now left wondering whether saving a million lives or more is worth giving up prom.

    Plenty of people suffered in serious ways in this last year. They lost jobs, they lost relatives, they lost the ability to travel and see people they loved and who needed them. About 500K of them lost their lives, as much as you want to shift the spotlight elsewhere. In comparison with them — or, again, with all those who had to sit in subway tunnels and air raid shelters with REAL masks strapped on during the lockdowns of past generations — the grief that a high school jock had to endure over losing the “right” to whatever perks high school jocks of earlier years enjoyed doesn’t strike me as worth whining about all that much. The same goes for the notion that he is the one that now deserves a tax break, as opposed to all those who suffered in far worse ways.

    To the extent that I’m the one who seems to you to be heartless or uncaring in this scenario means that Junior will lack for a lot more in life than you’re even able to realize. And neither Fauci nor Gates can be blamed for that.

    So in that sense, I do truly pity your son and admit he got a raw deal.

    • Replies: @Mr. Anon
    @HA


    His problem is that neither of his parents — despite having raised a teenage boy — ever managed to grow a spine, so that as a result, he is now left wondering whether saving a million lives or more is worth giving up prom.
     
    A spine? Is that what you call what you have? You do whatever your masters tell you do and thank them for it, you craven worm.
  302. HA says:
    @botazefa
    @HA


    No, if you ever want to steer it back to reality, the reason the pro-lockdown people prevailed is that those opposed to them have resorted to nutty anti-vaxx conspiracy theories like yours to make their case.
     
    Where so you get the idea I'm an antivaxxer?

    Oh, and with regard to my previous comment, the link for the 2020 suicide forecast
     
    Maybe you're commenting too much because I disn't mention suicide stats

    That’s right. The plutocrats all got together and decided to “burn down the economy” or whatever else people around here are saying that lockdowns did.
     
    That's not really what I meant, is it? You seem to be dodging the meat of my critique, which is the burden of the maskholes and lockdowners to show that this novel coronavirus warranted their historically novel and authoritarian choices. My sense is that if we'd done nothing other than encourage good hygeine and protecting the vulnerable where they live we'd have roughly the same body count.

    Replies: @HA

    “Maybe you’re commenting too much because I disn’t mention suicide stats…”

    No, I’m limited to 3 comments in an hour by this website, and therefore sometimes have to answer more than one comment at once. And if you or anyone else wants me to comment less, just don’t reply to anything I say. That’s just how it goes. I’ll make do however the chips may fall.

    As for the supposed “meat” of your “critique”, there is no meat there. To take just one of your objections, you seem to think that children are “not at risk of covid infection”. That is not the case. They are as likely to get infected as anyone else. They won’t get sick, by and large, and the viruses they shed will be fewer in number than those who get sicker, but the virus that they are infected with can still pass from them and onto others who are more likely to get sick. That, or the general notion of asymptomatic transmission — is not something that anyone in this day and age (a century after Typhoid Mary) should find surprising. The fact that all this confuses you, and yet you and people like you are still presuming to tell the experts that they’re getting it wrong, or that they know what Covid is really about and that despite their abject ignorance there is meat in their critiques is a far more worrying concern for this country, long term, Covid will likely ever be. There’s a vaccine for Covid now. But Dunning-Kruger seems, as of yet, to be incurable.

    • Replies: @botazefa
    @HA


    To take just one of your objections, you seem to think that children are “not at risk of covid infection”. That is not the case. They are as likely to get infected as anyone else. They won’t get sick, by and large, and the viruses they shed will be fewer in number than those who get sicker, but the virus that they are infected with can still pass from them and onto others who are more likely to get sick.
     
    The theory of asymptomatic spread is novel, new, not based on evidence. It isn't logical. I think Fauci was the first to mention it. It's a convenient theory that explains why there are so many asymptomatic positive PCR tests. It is a theory that turns the definition of 'infection' on its head.

    You say a person can be infected but not ill. I say there is a normal flora in the nasopharynx, that a swab will pick up a sample of that has dna from all sorts of viruses, some of which could cause disease if conditions are favorable. Some viruses, like SARS-CoV2, will be detected with PCR test cycles set to 40. Are a few viral particles equivalent to infection or does the body need to be actively replicating viral dna for us to use the word 'infection?' It is not logical to think that in those cases where a few viral particles have been detected by PCR people are shedding virus and infecting others.

    Put simply: if there ain't enough virus to give the host a fever (the gold standard indicator of infection) how can there be enough virus to infect others. It's a nonsensical notion and if you choose to promote it you should expect a lot of pushback from people like me.

    I hesitate to engage your dunning kruger insult other than to say that I only throw insults when I'm angry. And if I'm angry in a debate it's probably because I'm losing the argument. Maybe if you are able to view your frequent insults in your comments on this post as an insight into your anger will enjoy an epiphanic irony about dunning kruger that'll make you laugh out loud.
  303. HA says:
    @MGB
    @Mr. Anon

    Suicide statistics are suspect under any circumstances. Consideration given to family reputation, concern over life insurance benefits for a wife who just lost her breadwinner, etc. can influence a 'suicide' finding as much as any forensic evidence. In any event, people hanging by the neck from their chandelier with a note pinned to their shirt is the rare case. As a matter of common sense, you would expect suicides to increase as social interactions ground to a halt, and people are contacting legal aid to stop their eviction, whether or not the death is classified as a suicide, or from someone unintentionally medicating themselves to death. And there is all this supposed statistical, scientific certainty about Covid deaths. What do we know about rates for obesity, diabetes, hypertension, etc. during the Covid period? Who's tracking that shit? If there really is another wave of Covid, or some variant thereof, are you better protected from a serious infection if you are obese and have had the vaccine, or an unvaccinated, healthy specimen? The government scared people into hiding in their basement. Why not scare them into a daily hike through the woods? That's the grotesque state of affairs, that people have been convinced that health is defined by access to pharmaceuticals.

    I have been to a number of sporting events for kids now that things have opened up a bit. Most of them can't run five yards without having a respiratory event, and from the looks of things their parents aren't any better off despite all of the Peloton commercials.

    Replies: @Steve Sailer, @HA

    “Suicide statistics are suspect under any circumstances.”

    So break it down by category. Absent a mob hit staged to look like a suicide, a self-inflicted death by gunshot is not all that suspect. Has there been some anomalous upshot in those? What is so shameful about Covid despair that makes people want to disguise those suicides as something else, more so than from other causes?

    “In any event, people hanging by the neck from their chandelier with a note pinned to their shirt is the rare case.”

    Actually, gunshot suicides are fairly common. And hanging, be it from a chandelier or anything else, is actually the most common method among suicide completers [in one study from Korea]. That being the case, my assumption at this point is that you’re just making up stuff.

    And for what it’s worth, Canada has also reported that the number of suicides went down last year.

    • Replies: @MGB
    @HA

    Do you even read your own links? The JAMA article with trends in death details a decrease in suicides of 2677 for 2020, but an increase in deaths from unintentional injuries of 19,136, which were 'largely driven by drug overdose deaths.' So, yes, there was a significant increase in deaths of despair, and yes, it is difficult to determine if someone intentionally or accidentally overdosed.

    As for the school age population specifically, this quote is from Robert Redfield, former CDC director from an interview in July 2020.


    But there has been another cost that we’ve seen, particularly in high schools. We’re seeing, sadly, far greater suicides now than we are deaths from COVID. We’re seeing far greater deaths from drug overdose that are above excess that we had as background than we are seeing the deaths from COVID. So this is why I keep coming back for the overall social being of individuals, is let’s all work together and find out how we can find common ground to get these schools open in a way that people are comfortable and their safe. And if there is a need for investment and resources, just like there is a need for some of the underprivileged children that are probably better served if they have certain comorbidities to do homeschooling, they need the access to be able to have the computer and the internet to do that.
     
    So one of the questions is, not that you give a shit since it isn't responsive to the 'do you wanna kill granny' meme, what are the demographics of those who committed suicide or died from unintentional injuries in 2020. (A little introspection might help, members of the 'do you wanna kill granny' squad. You're talking about yourselves, not granny.)
  304. @Turtlelamp
    @Achmed E. Newman

    This is a valid point. Our population is aging and the number of expected deaths each year is rising.

    According to this paper, the US population in 2020 had 5 million more people aged 65+ than the average for 2015-2019. Factoring this in, the number of excess deaths from March to August 2020 dropped by about 23%.

    https://pubmed.ncbi.nlm.nih.gov/33316174/

    Replies: @Achmed E. Newman

    Wow, that’s right in my wheelhouse now, Turtlelamp. Thank you!

    It took me a while to figure out how to get to the full paper. The link is in there, but here it is, also. This one covers only Mar – Aug of ’20. In that 2nd set of bar graphs, I did a quick look (it was hard to find that number in the paper for me) and saw that these guys had ~300,000 excess deaths without accounting for population changes and ~ 225,000 with accounting for that. The difference is 75,000.

    I used the same method they describe thusly:

    Age-specific excess deaths from March through August 2020 were estimated in 2 ways. First, the average annual number of deaths in each month in 2015 to 2019 was subtracted from the observed number of deaths in 2020 in each age group (that is, no adjustment was made for population growth and aging). Second, the expected number of deaths in 2020 was estimated with direct standardization by applying the age-specific death rate in 2015 to 2019 to population counts in 2020, by age and month, and then subtracted from the observed number of deaths in 2020 (that is, with adjustment for population growth and aging). Expected deaths are the number of deaths that would have occurred in 2020 if age-specific death rates were the same as in 2015 to 2019….

    Exactamundo!!

    Now I didn’t do the analysis of the other cause of excess deaths that they did. Also, I don’t have the ’20 population age group data that they have, as I mentioned in one of my comments. I used ’19, as if it were the ’20 ages of Americans, so there should be even more than the 100,000 in difference that I stated above.

    I was in the middle of a quick apology post on my blog for not getting this data in a post. It’ll come Wednesday, I think. I was way too busy today.

    • Replies: @Dieter Kief
    @Achmed E. Newman

    The same thing was noticed in Switzerland - look at the growing number of old people before you judge the excess death numbers:


    Professor of immunology Pietro Vernazza: "Now, the total number of deaths in over 65-year-olds is often assessed in a year-on-year comparison. But this age group has increased by 10 percent in the last five years. Mortality is now defined as the number of deaths per 100,000 people per year. If you now study the death rates in people over 65 for the past 10 years, you will find that mortality in 2013 and 2015 was higher than mortality in 2020

    ? So in your view there is no exceptional excess mortality in 2020?


    Pietro Vernazza: This is not my Point of view: that's what the numbers tell us.

    Here is the link

    https://www.medinside.ch/de/post/ich-bin-ein-klarer-verfechter-der-impfung

    The Swiss debate did go well and they managed to avoid CO-19 panic and there were many factors at play. I think Pietro Vernazza and retired virologist Beda M. Stadler**** did make a difference because the regular guy in the street did listen to what they had to say - and READ what they wrote, not least in the regional press, which is still going comparatively strong n Switzerland, but also in the leading bigger papers and the public broadcasting programs, who did enable both anti-panic professors to make their points quite often.


    - But there is something else going on too: People know their cities and villages hospitals and cemeteries - they have a gut feeling if there is something rather distracting and scary happening there - or not. This might even have been the single most important point.

    Kratoklastes and some other commenters at iSteve and Unz have remarked comparable effects as Vernazza and Stadler for the US. Unfortunately, nobody with the possible exception of Mr. Hail seems to have summed these findings up in an article.So - keep going, Mr. Moderator!

    ****Ivor Cummins called him a big European voice and named him The Virus Pope of Europe, which was - let me make this point very short: Very Irish. - (A bit trickster-like too and it thus slowly but steadily turned into a self-fulfilling prophecy. (Ivor Cummins is an incredible guy and a man of true wits.)

    Replies: @Achmed E. Newman

  305. @Travis
    @Achmed E. Newman

    expected deaths in 2020 was about 2.95 million. The US had 2.9 million deaths in 2019 and we would expect an increase of ~55,000 deaths in 2020 compared to 2019 due to our aging population as more people turned 70+ and the median age increased.

    actual deaths in 2020 were 3.36 million, which was ~410,000 excess deaths. The CDC claims 377,500 died from COVID in 2020 which would give us about 30,000 excess deaths from the lockdowns.

    The numbers of COVID deaths is very similar to the excess deaths during the Hon Kong flu epidemic of 1968 when the CDC estimated 100,000 Americans died from the flu. The vitims in 1968 , like today, were mostly over the age of 65.

    in 1968 the US population was 200 million, but the elderly population was just 20 million. The elderly population in 2020 was 3 times greater than in 1968. So the COVID pandemic deaths are comparable to the 1968 pandemic which killed 100,000 Americans.

    Replies: @Achmed E. Newman

    Yep, you got the idea, Travis. I, and the guys writing the paper Turtlelamp just pointed to me here were more specific about the age groups and the normal death rates for each. As I wrote above, other than in the 85+ group, the death rates didn’t change much at all from ’15 to ’19.

    I will put this together for a blog post on Wednesday on Peak Stupidity, I sure hope!

  306. @Anonymous
    @Achmed E. Newman

    Stand your ground.

    https://youtu.be/eXWhbUUE4ko

    They talk about "under 25" as though that were the relevant demographic.

    Of all the *60 year olds* who had Covid....

    1 in 300 died.

    And all your social distancing and masking did NOTNING.


    If you are under 60 and not in a hospice yet you stayed home and masked up..... L O S E R.

    All you did was was help distract the population and politicians from useful solitions to actually protect those few people at risk.

    It was theatre.

    All the world's a stage.

    It's even masked.

    Replies: @Achmed E. Newman

    I LUV, LUV, LUV that video, #402. I put that one up on my blog when it came out. Thank you for the reminder and another entertaining view of it.

  307. WOW. A Covid death graph with an X axis that starts at ZERO!

  308. @Simon Tugmutton
    There were no excess deaths in the UK in 2020.

    An enterprising fellow has found a way to bypass the lies spewed out by the government: he issued freedom of information requests to local councils, asking how many burials and cremations they had logged from 2015-20 inclusive. Not all the councils discharged their statutory duty to respond, probably because they were aware of the implications of the request and were filling their underpants in consequence. The responses so far are to be found here:

    https://www.whatdotheyknow.com/user/nick_milner

    In the period covered, the number of burials and cremations in 2020 was only slightly above the average. Indeed, 2017 was much worse.

    I imagine that much the same applies in the U.S. and many other countries.

    The number of 'Covid-19' deaths in the UK was inflated by (1) fraudulent use of high-cycle PCR tests (which are anyway not to be used for diagnostic purposes), (2) conflating deaths 'with' Covid with deaths 'from' Covid, (3) changing the rules so that only one doctor, not two, needed to sign a death certificate, (4) allowing doctors to diagnose Covid without even seeing the patient, (5) fraudulently ascribing any death from a respiratory complaint to Covid, and (6) wholesale falsification of published central government statistics.

    Meanwhile, mass murder is going on with the so-called vaccinations. This percentage of fatal adverse reactions, never mind all the others, would have seen any other experimental drug rapidly pulled from the market, Emergency Use Approval or not. And of course, in this case there is no 'Emergency' at all.

    https://yellowcard.ukcolumn.org/yellow-card-reports

    Then we have the strong possibility of pathogenic priming in those credulous enough to have allowed themselves to be experimented on. The next flu season might well be interesting.

    Replies: @Barack Obama's secret Unz account, @Hippopotamusdrome

    United Kingdom – Crude death rate
    2017: 9.3
    2018: 9.4
    2019: 9.4
    2020: 9.4

  309. @Anonymous
    Some percentage of the excess deaths are from people not getting medical treatment for non-Covid issues. Have relatives who are physicians and their business (and hospital occupancy) was deeply down in spring/summer 2020.

    [Not arguing the entire effect. Just, it is a valid confounding variable.]

    Replies: @Hippopotamusdrome

    Some percentage of the excess deaths are…

    …pure bookeeping fictions made to get the CARES Act $$$

  310. @Steve Sailer
    @Interferon

    I did that back in December in Taki's Magazine. What I found was that official covid deaths for the first wave were understated. There had been quite a few more excess deaths than official covid deaths. Presumably, they missed many covid-related deaths before they were familiar with it. After the spring, however, the excess deaths and covid deaths were in pretty close synch.

    Replies: @Interferon

    Interesting…
    So those reports of people falling off ladders and having the cause of death recorded as ‘Covid’ were rare anomalies then.

  311. @HA
    @Anon

    "Anyway, you didn’t really address my point. You can ridicule any of my examples, but what they add up to is a formative year of life effectively taken away, exchanged for a pathetic, isolated virtual world."

    I addressed your "point, if you want to call it that, in exactly the way that it deserved. Your son's problem is not a missed year of life spent in a "pathetic, isolated virtual world." His problem is that neither of his parents -- despite having raised a teenage boy -- ever managed to grow a spine, so that as a result, he is now left wondering whether saving a million lives or more is worth giving up prom.

    Plenty of people suffered in serious ways in this last year. They lost jobs, they lost relatives, they lost the ability to travel and see people they loved and who needed them. About 500K of them lost their lives, as much as you want to shift the spotlight elsewhere. In comparison with them -- or, again, with all those who had to sit in subway tunnels and air raid shelters with REAL masks strapped on during the lockdowns of past generations -- the grief that a high school jock had to endure over losing the "right" to whatever perks high school jocks of earlier years enjoyed doesn't strike me as worth whining about all that much. The same goes for the notion that he is the one that now deserves a tax break, as opposed to all those who suffered in far worse ways.

    To the extent that I'm the one who seems to you to be heartless or uncaring in this scenario means that Junior will lack for a lot more in life than you're even able to realize. And neither Fauci nor Gates can be blamed for that.

    So in that sense, I do truly pity your son and admit he got a raw deal.

    Replies: @Mr. Anon

    His problem is that neither of his parents — despite having raised a teenage boy — ever managed to grow a spine, so that as a result, he is now left wondering whether saving a million lives or more is worth giving up prom.

    A spine? Is that what you call what you have? You do whatever your masters tell you do and thank them for it, you craven worm.

  312. @Mike1
    JAMA study pegs covid deaths at 345k. Overdoses/Car accidents were 192k.

    Regardless of position on this we have a 0.1% population death rate with a median age at death of 80!

    https://jamanetwork.com/journals/jama/fullarticle/2778234

    Replies: @Chrisnonymous, @Chrisnonymous

    If you think COVID is a tragedy, then the heart disease rate is a holocaust. I mean there’s been 6000000 deaths from heart disease just since Obama’s second term.

    Mark my words, in our vaccinated, vegan future a spare rib and the lack of a vaccine passport will be seen for what they both are–virtual gas chambers.

    First they didn’t come for Five Guys, and I did not speak out–
    Because my BMI was within government guidelines.

    Then they didn’t come for surfing, and I did not speak out–
    Because I preferred reading and never tanned.

    Then they didn’t mandate vaccines, and I did not speak out–
    Because the pandemic had abated.

    Then my eyesight started to go–and there was no one left to take away my car keys.

    • Replies: @Achmed E. Newman
    @Chrisnonymous

    I agree wholeheartedly with both your replies here. Though I may have sounded like an asshole in whatever comment of mine you were referring to up above regarding totalitarianism, you sure seem to agree with me here, Chris. Let me see if it's the following that you would argue with:

    I don't care if it really IS the Black Death 2.0, I'm not in favor of anyone but local government getting involved, and even then it's probably not necessary. Would not most Americans hunker down on their own? Do your really need a government agency doing anything but giving info. and possibly advice, when you see that commandeered Fed-Ex van coming around every Thursday with that guy (still in his pressed purple and orange uniform) repeating over a P/A system "Bring out yer dead! Bring you yer dead!"?

    LOCKDOWNs are totalitarian, period. I don't need case counts or death counts to know that.

    OK, if that's what you disagree with, guilty as charged. (Or, if I was an a-hole to you, I apologize. We usually agree on issues.)

    Replies: @Chrisnonymous, @Corvinus

  313. @Achmed E. Newman
    @Turtlelamp

    Wow, that's right in my wheelhouse now, Turtlelamp. Thank you!

    It took me a while to figure out how to get to the full paper. The link is in there, but here it is, also. This one covers only Mar - Aug of '20. In that 2nd set of bar graphs, I did a quick look (it was hard to find that number in the paper for me) and saw that these guys had ~300,000 excess deaths without accounting for population changes and ~ 225,000 with accounting for that. The difference is 75,000.

    I used the same method they describe thusly:


    Age-specific excess deaths from March through August 2020 were estimated in 2 ways. First, the average annual number of deaths in each month in 2015 to 2019 was subtracted from the observed number of deaths in 2020 in each age group (that is, no adjustment was made for population growth and aging). Second, the expected number of deaths in 2020 was estimated with direct standardization by applying the age-specific death rate in 2015 to 2019 to population counts in 2020, by age and month, and then subtracted from the observed number of deaths in 2020 (that is, with adjustment for population growth and aging). Expected deaths are the number of deaths that would have occurred in 2020 if age-specific death rates were the same as in 2015 to 2019....
     
    Exactamundo!!

    Now I didn't do the analysis of the other cause of excess deaths that they did. Also, I don't have the '20 population age group data that they have, as I mentioned in one of my comments. I used '19, as if it were the '20 ages of Americans, so there should be even more than the 100,000 in difference that I stated above.

    I was in the middle of a quick apology post on my blog for not getting this data in a post. It'll come Wednesday, I think. I was way too busy today.

    Replies: @Dieter Kief

    The same thing was noticed in Switzerland – look at the growing number of old people before you judge the excess death numbers:

    Professor of immunology Pietro Vernazza: “Now, the total number of deaths in over 65-year-olds is often assessed in a year-on-year comparison. But this age group has increased by 10 percent in the last five years. Mortality is now defined as the number of deaths per 100,000 people per year. If you now study the death rates in people over 65 for the past 10 years, you will find that mortality in 2013 and 2015 was higher than mortality in 2020

    ? So in your view there is no exceptional excess mortality in 2020?

    Pietro Vernazza: This is not my Point of view: that’s what the numbers tell us.

    Here is the link

    https://www.medinside.ch/de/post/ich-bin-ein-klarer-verfechter-der-impfung

    The Swiss debate did go well and they managed to avoid CO-19 panic and there were many factors at play. I think Pietro Vernazza and retired virologist Beda M. Stadler**** did make a difference because the regular guy in the street did listen to what they had to say – and READ what they wrote, not least in the regional press, which is still going comparatively strong n Switzerland, but also in the leading bigger papers and the public broadcasting programs, who did enable both anti-panic professors to make their points quite often.

    – But there is something else going on too: People know their cities and villages hospitals and cemeteries – they have a gut feeling if there is something rather distracting and scary happening there – or not. This might even have been the single most important point.

    Kratoklastes and some other commenters at iSteve and Unz have remarked comparable effects as Vernazza and Stadler for the US. Unfortunately, nobody with the possible exception of Mr. Hail seems to have summed these findings up in an article.So – keep going, Mr. Moderator!

    ****Ivor Cummins called him a big European voice and named him The Virus Pope of Europe, which was – let me make this point very short: Very Irish. – (A bit trickster-like too and it thus slowly but steadily turned into a self-fulfilling prophecy. (Ivor Cummins is an incredible guy and a man of true wits.)

    • Replies: @Achmed E. Newman
    @Dieter Kief

    Thanks, Dieter. I first saw your comment on PS.

  314. @AnotherDad
    @TomSchmidt


    But you are long-term right, except that COVID has accelerated collapsing fertility by making housing more expensive. And by transferring wealth from young healthy people who might have children to sicker older people who won’t.
     
    I do think the lockdown nonsense may well kill more babies from being born than it kills old fogies off.

    Which--speaking as an old fogey nationalist--is sad. I'd rather die younger with more grandchildren than dodder off into a long long twilight with fewer. What's important is who/what lives on after me--i've already done "the good stuff".

    ~~

    That said, the actual effects of covid--the virus--on housing should be fertility positive. I.e. increasing supply by killing off some current occupants. It's not the Black Death ... but it has freed up some housing.

    What's driving up housing costs is
    a) the lockdowns
    -- increasing lumber prices
    -- driving people out of blue state hell holes to red state freedom; (my Florida whitetopia has gone fricking nuts, my house is worth a couple hundred thousand more just this year)

    but much more importantly
    b) money printing
    --the flood of money and basement interest rates have sent prices soaring.


    I'm a broken record, but we need policies that focus on the nation's future--affordable family formation:
    -- end immigration (super-charging job and housing availability)
    -- kill off taxation of families with children (eugenically, deductions only not welfare)
    -- voucher off public education
    -- competency tests in lieu of costly college credentialism

    It's not a hard problem to make middle class family life affordable and pleasant again. It's just that we have a nasty "elite"--whose driving ethos is looting--hostile to flyover white-gentiles actually having children and living their lives according to their traditional culture in their traditional nation.

    Replies: @Jonathan Mason, @TomSchmidt

    It’s not a hard problem to make middle class family life affordable and pleasant again.

    I suspect it is a very hard problem. MAGA was about the abused and defrauded working class searching for someone to do something about their being denuded by the elite. The next group that needs a champion to go with the unsated MAGAs will be the middle class below the upper middle class. That’s clearly a majority of the electorate.

    At some point, being the bought handmaidens of the elite is going to be overwhelming for a politician with, uh, testicular fortitude. I think they realize it cannot be done. Since the oil embargo of 1973, wages have gone down in real terms for the median worker, or barely risen. That’s partly political power, and partly the inability to find cheap energy to distribute to the populace.

    But breaking the grifter class in the elite, and more importantly their lickspittle lackeys in the professional-managerial class, will at least provide good political theater and equalize the suffering. That will be a winning political position. Seizing the wealth of the 9 COVID billionaires would be a good start: leave them with 50,000,000 and give the money to people made unemployed by lockdowns, or small landlords driven to the brink by eviction moratoriums.

  315. @Western
    @Anon

    Just the idea that I could have problems down the road from side effects. It is unlikely, but I would rather not think about it. I am healthy so it is unlikely that I would have serious problems if I caught Covid.

    Replies: @TomSchmidt

    There was a study reported in Nature in January where the scientists compared blood donated before COVID to the virus, checking to see if T Cells in the blood expressed any ability to recognize the peptides on the virus. The researchers found that 81% of samples showed T-Cell immunity: these people were likely to be in the “mild case” category. Of course, 19% of people were NOT in that category, and theoretically formed the group that died in large numbers from the virus, which did not even kill more than 90% of the over-75 crowd that got it.

    It would be great if a diagnostic blood test could show if you’re in the unlucky 19%. If so, the mRNA therapy is a better bet, unless you’ve already survived COVID.

    • Replies: @Western
    @TomSchmidt

    Interesting.

  316. @Chrisnonymous
    @Mike1

    If you think COVID is a tragedy, then the heart disease rate is a holocaust. I mean there's been 6000000 deaths from heart disease just since Obama's second term.

    Mark my words, in our vaccinated, vegan future a spare rib and the lack of a vaccine passport will be seen for what they both are--virtual gas chambers.


    First they didn't come for Five Guys, and I did not speak out--
    Because my BMI was within government guidelines.

    Then they didn't come for surfing, and I did not speak out--
    Because I preferred reading and never tanned.

    Then they didn't mandate vaccines, and I did not speak out--
    Because the pandemic had abated.

    Then my eyesight started to go--and there was no one left to take away my car keys.
     

    Replies: @Achmed E. Newman

    I agree wholeheartedly with both your replies here. Though I may have sounded like an asshole in whatever comment of mine you were referring to up above regarding totalitarianism, you sure seem to agree with me here, Chris. Let me see if it’s the following that you would argue with:

    I don’t care if it really IS the Black Death 2.0, I’m not in favor of anyone but local government getting involved, and even then it’s probably not necessary. Would not most Americans hunker down on their own? Do your really need a government agency doing anything but giving info. and possibly advice, when you see that commandeered Fed-Ex van coming around every Thursday with that guy (still in his pressed purple and orange uniform) repeating over a P/A system “Bring out yer dead! Bring you yer dead!”?

    LOCKDOWNs are totalitarian, period. I don’t need case counts or death counts to know that.

    OK, if that’s what you disagree with, guilty as charged. (Or, if I was an a-hole to you, I apologize. We usually agree on issues.)

    • Replies: @Chrisnonymous
    @Achmed E. Newman

    There is a libertarian argument against any kind of lockdown. I buy it in some cases. In 2020USA, I think many people would have preferred to take their chances, and that would have been okay because those in high-risk categories could isolate themselves. And if it had been a highly transmissible MERS2 (which really would be Black Death 2.0), such that going to the supermarket was like playing Russian roulette, then people would have self-isolated en mass until the infection disappeared as it has in Wuhan now. The problem is something in between, say 2% of the population dies (6000000, a Coronocaust) and there are no identifiable risk factors--would the libertarian solution of self-organization based in rationality solve free rider and commons issues to stop the pandemic? I don't know.

    The question of the efficacy of the libertarian solution in all cases is different from the question of loss of liberty. I am not dismissive of the idea that a lockdown is an imposition that fundamentally violates natural rights like the rights of speech, assembly, and self-defense. However, my initial take is two-fold:

    First, we already live in a society in which many liberties are curtailed. It would be strange to say that the regime we live under is okay, but a time-limited lockdown to save millions is unacceptable.

    Second, governments always govern out of the consent of the governed. The preservation of liberty is dependant on the ability of the governed to withdraw consent. Consent can derive from various sources such as fear and prior agreement. In the PRC, consent for the lockdown derived ultimately from fear of the government --Xi could just order it because he is a strongman. However, what we saw in the UK was consent happening through fear as well--but in that case it was democratic consent based in fear of the unknown. The police in the UK, at least initially, were following orders to curtail people's freedoms without legislated authority on which to do that--the government was acting as a strongman not becuase the people were conditioned to fear the military but because they feared the virus. So, we can see that paper "rights" and "freedoms" are not a bulkwork against tyranny. If we don't have lockdown legislated, we can still get lockdowns when our neighbors support them. Indeed, if the lockdowns are justified on an ad hoc technocratic basis, the government can say anything it wants about them. On the other hand, consent that happens through prior agreement is more likely to create constraints on governors and serve as a basis on which to question or resist. Legislation (it might have to be a Constitutional Amendment) creating a time-limited lockdown as a suspension of the right of assembly would provide clear grounds on which to resist attempts at ongoing ad hoc rules justified by fear-based marketing slogans like "hammer and dance".

    We already have totalitarian measures written in our Constitution--which provides for the suspension of habeas corpus during invasion. I'd rather see that transparently extended to pandemics than rely on the Blue Staters who believed in Russian Collusion and a Jan 6 Insurrection to act as a check on the government.

    Replies: @Mr. Anon, @Achmed E. Newman

    , @Corvinus
    @Achmed E. Newman

    "I’m not in favor of anyone but local government getting involved, and even then it’s probably not necessary."

    So what about the governors of Texas and Florida that are interfering with the decisions of communities who prefer to keep their COVID 19 protocols intact?

    "Would not most Americans hunker down on their own?"

    Unfortunately, due to our overall low time preferences and low IQ's, Americans needed more guidance.

    "Do your really need a government agency doing anything but giving info. and possibly advice..."

    We needed leadership in a time of crisis.

    "LOCKDOWNs are totalitarian, period."

    That is one way to look at it. Another way is that it was necessary for our general welfare.

  317. @Dieter Kief
    @Achmed E. Newman

    The same thing was noticed in Switzerland - look at the growing number of old people before you judge the excess death numbers:


    Professor of immunology Pietro Vernazza: "Now, the total number of deaths in over 65-year-olds is often assessed in a year-on-year comparison. But this age group has increased by 10 percent in the last five years. Mortality is now defined as the number of deaths per 100,000 people per year. If you now study the death rates in people over 65 for the past 10 years, you will find that mortality in 2013 and 2015 was higher than mortality in 2020

    ? So in your view there is no exceptional excess mortality in 2020?


    Pietro Vernazza: This is not my Point of view: that's what the numbers tell us.

    Here is the link

    https://www.medinside.ch/de/post/ich-bin-ein-klarer-verfechter-der-impfung

    The Swiss debate did go well and they managed to avoid CO-19 panic and there were many factors at play. I think Pietro Vernazza and retired virologist Beda M. Stadler**** did make a difference because the regular guy in the street did listen to what they had to say - and READ what they wrote, not least in the regional press, which is still going comparatively strong n Switzerland, but also in the leading bigger papers and the public broadcasting programs, who did enable both anti-panic professors to make their points quite often.


    - But there is something else going on too: People know their cities and villages hospitals and cemeteries - they have a gut feeling if there is something rather distracting and scary happening there - or not. This might even have been the single most important point.

    Kratoklastes and some other commenters at iSteve and Unz have remarked comparable effects as Vernazza and Stadler for the US. Unfortunately, nobody with the possible exception of Mr. Hail seems to have summed these findings up in an article.So - keep going, Mr. Moderator!

    ****Ivor Cummins called him a big European voice and named him The Virus Pope of Europe, which was - let me make this point very short: Very Irish. - (A bit trickster-like too and it thus slowly but steadily turned into a self-fulfilling prophecy. (Ivor Cummins is an incredible guy and a man of true wits.)

    Replies: @Achmed E. Newman

    Thanks, Dieter. I first saw your comment on PS.

  318. @HA
    @botazefa

    "Maybe you’re commenting too much because I disn’t mention suicide stats..."

    No, I'm limited to 3 comments in an hour by this website, and therefore sometimes have to answer more than one comment at once. And if you or anyone else wants me to comment less, just don't reply to anything I say. That's just how it goes. I'll make do however the chips may fall.

    As for the supposed "meat" of your "critique", there is no meat there. To take just one of your objections, you seem to think that children are "not at risk of covid infection". That is not the case. They are as likely to get infected as anyone else. They won't get sick, by and large, and the viruses they shed will be fewer in number than those who get sicker, but the virus that they are infected with can still pass from them and onto others who are more likely to get sick. That, or the general notion of asymptomatic transmission -- is not something that anyone in this day and age (a century after Typhoid Mary) should find surprising. The fact that all this confuses you, and yet you and people like you are still presuming to tell the experts that they're getting it wrong, or that they know what Covid is really about and that despite their abject ignorance there is meat in their critiques is a far more worrying concern for this country, long term, Covid will likely ever be. There's a vaccine for Covid now. But Dunning-Kruger seems, as of yet, to be incurable.

    Replies: @botazefa

    To take just one of your objections, you seem to think that children are “not at risk of covid infection”. That is not the case. They are as likely to get infected as anyone else. They won’t get sick, by and large, and the viruses they shed will be fewer in number than those who get sicker, but the virus that they are infected with can still pass from them and onto others who are more likely to get sick.

    The theory of asymptomatic spread is novel, new, not based on evidence. It isn’t logical. I think Fauci was the first to mention it. It’s a convenient theory that explains why there are so many asymptomatic positive PCR tests. It is a theory that turns the definition of ‘infection’ on its head.

    You say a person can be infected but not ill. I say there is a normal flora in the nasopharynx, that a swab will pick up a sample of that has dna from all sorts of viruses, some of which could cause disease if conditions are favorable. Some viruses, like SARS-CoV2, will be detected with PCR test cycles set to 40. Are a few viral particles equivalent to infection or does the body need to be actively replicating viral dna for us to use the word ‘infection?’ It is not logical to think that in those cases where a few viral particles have been detected by PCR people are shedding virus and infecting others.

    Put simply: if there ain’t enough virus to give the host a fever (the gold standard indicator of infection) how can there be enough virus to infect others. It’s a nonsensical notion and if you choose to promote it you should expect a lot of pushback from people like me.

    I hesitate to engage your dunning kruger insult other than to say that I only throw insults when I’m angry. And if I’m angry in a debate it’s probably because I’m losing the argument. Maybe if you are able to view your frequent insults in your comments on this post as an insight into your anger will enjoy an epiphanic irony about dunning kruger that’ll make you laugh out loud.

    • Agree: William Badwhite
    • Thanks: Mr. Anon
  319. @Achmed E. Newman
    @Chrisnonymous

    I agree wholeheartedly with both your replies here. Though I may have sounded like an asshole in whatever comment of mine you were referring to up above regarding totalitarianism, you sure seem to agree with me here, Chris. Let me see if it's the following that you would argue with:

    I don't care if it really IS the Black Death 2.0, I'm not in favor of anyone but local government getting involved, and even then it's probably not necessary. Would not most Americans hunker down on their own? Do your really need a government agency doing anything but giving info. and possibly advice, when you see that commandeered Fed-Ex van coming around every Thursday with that guy (still in his pressed purple and orange uniform) repeating over a P/A system "Bring out yer dead! Bring you yer dead!"?

    LOCKDOWNs are totalitarian, period. I don't need case counts or death counts to know that.

    OK, if that's what you disagree with, guilty as charged. (Or, if I was an a-hole to you, I apologize. We usually agree on issues.)

    Replies: @Chrisnonymous, @Corvinus

    There is a libertarian argument against any kind of lockdown. I buy it in some cases. In 2020USA, I think many people would have preferred to take their chances, and that would have been okay because those in high-risk categories could isolate themselves. And if it had been a highly transmissible MERS2 (which really would be Black Death 2.0), such that going to the supermarket was like playing Russian roulette, then people would have self-isolated en mass until the infection disappeared as it has in Wuhan now. The problem is something in between, say 2% of the population dies (6000000, a Coronocaust) and there are no identifiable risk factors–would the libertarian solution of self-organization based in rationality solve free rider and commons issues to stop the pandemic? I don’t know.

    The question of the efficacy of the libertarian solution in all cases is different from the question of loss of liberty. I am not dismissive of the idea that a lockdown is an imposition that fundamentally violates natural rights like the rights of speech, assembly, and self-defense. However, my initial take is two-fold:

    First, we already live in a society in which many liberties are curtailed. It would be strange to say that the regime we live under is okay, but a time-limited lockdown to save millions is unacceptable.

    Second, governments always govern out of the consent of the governed. The preservation of liberty is dependant on the ability of the governed to withdraw consent. Consent can derive from various sources such as fear and prior agreement. In the PRC, consent for the lockdown derived ultimately from fear of the government –Xi could just order it because he is a strongman. However, what we saw in the UK was consent happening through fear as well–but in that case it was democratic consent based in fear of the unknown. The police in the UK, at least initially, were following orders to curtail people’s freedoms without legislated authority on which to do that–the government was acting as a strongman not becuase the people were conditioned to fear the military but because they feared the virus. So, we can see that paper “rights” and “freedoms” are not a bulkwork against tyranny. If we don’t have lockdown legislated, we can still get lockdowns when our neighbors support them. Indeed, if the lockdowns are justified on an ad hoc technocratic basis, the government can say anything it wants about them. On the other hand, consent that happens through prior agreement is more likely to create constraints on governors and serve as a basis on which to question or resist. Legislation (it might have to be a Constitutional Amendment) creating a time-limited lockdown as a suspension of the right of assembly would provide clear grounds on which to resist attempts at ongoing ad hoc rules justified by fear-based marketing slogans like “hammer and dance”.

    We already have totalitarian measures written in our Constitution–which provides for the suspension of habeas corpus during invasion. I’d rather see that transparently extended to pandemics than rely on the Blue Staters who believed in Russian Collusion and a Jan 6 Insurrection to act as a check on the government.

    • Replies: @Mr. Anon
    @Chrisnonymous


    First, we already live in a society in which many liberties are curtailed. It would be strange to say that the regime we live under is okay, but a time-limited lockdown to save millions is unacceptable.
     
    And how did those liberties come to be curtailed? Usually by the government revoking them on account of some emergency or another, real or perceived (or manufactured). Crises are the mechanism that governments use to infringe on liberty. People objected to this latest outrage because they knew - perhaps if only because they had learned from the aftermath of 9/11 - that common fundamental liberties were being taken away only to be ceded back by the government on a conditional basis. The fact that they were even talking about a new normal indicates they didn't expect anything to truly go back to normal.

    Second, governments always govern out of the consent of the governed.
     
    Are you really so childishly naive? Governments govern based on the consent of the people who own the government. Those people are not "the governed".

    Replies: @Chrisnonymous

    , @Achmed E. Newman
    @Chrisnonymous

    I don't agree with all of this, but thanks for the good explanation of your position.

  320. @Steve Sailer
    @Colin Wright

    Crowded indoor fun with lots of talking, laughing and singing appears to have been what was the main spreader. Almost anything outdoors was much less of a problem.

    Replies: @Hernan Pizzaro del Blanco

    There was never any evidence of coronavirus spreading outside. Yet they still closed the beaches , parks and playgrounds and when they opened the parks still required people to wear worthless masks.

  321. @Travis
    @Chrisnonymous

    good observation. It is clear by now that coronavirus is spread by the inhalation of very fine respiratory droplets and aerosol particles. It is also clear that masks do nothing to stop the spread and may have resulted increased infections as people assumed they were protected by wearing masks. Wearing these paper and cloth masks also increase the spread of the small aerosol particles and cause small droplets to be broken up into smaller particles thus increasing the spread. Wearing masks also causes most of the aerosol particles to get projected upwards thru the gaps in the masks , thus causing the particles to linger in the air longer as they are projected upwards from the face reaching greater heights than when masks are not worn. Children are more kikely to spread the virus to adults when wearing masks, as they aerosols get projected higher than the face as they are forced thru the gaps along the top of the masks thus the viral particles reach higher where an adult may breath in the particles. Maskless children pose less risk to adults as they breath out from the nose or mouth since the aerosols will not be blown upward toward the faces of adults. Wearing masks actually facilitates the spread of aerosolized viral particles and increase infection rates. We already knew they did not protect individuals from contracting coronavirus, since these masks cannot prevent the tiny aerosolized particles from being inhaled. The CDC and the WHO always knew that these masks could not prevent infections. It was all done to spread panic and increase their power.

    Replies: @Hernan Pizzaro del Blanco

    The mask fetish has been one of the most bizarre fads of this century. 95% of the kids in our town are walking to school still wearing masks here in Summit NJ. Very strange.

    • Replies: @MGB
    @Hernan Pizzaro del Blanco

    these kids are royally fucked. not only were they terrorized into compliance with admittedly useless protocols by the state, their parents mostly stood by, or worse, joined in on the pig pile.