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Was 2020's Huge Murder Surge Due to Pandemic or BLM?
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My new column totals up murders in 104 cities and finds homicides were up an enormous 37.9% in 2020, three times the biggest national increase in murders (12.7% in 1968) in the last 60 years. The final national number that the FBI will announce next September will likely be lower, say in the 25-30% range, but it will still shatter the record for the most massive increase in murders in one year.

This is not to say that the pandemic panic didn’t accelerate trends the Establishment wanted to do anyway, like letting more criminals out of jail. But the historical record shows that nobody noticed a big increase in criminal violence during the first ten weeks or so of the pandemic. News reports of huge increases in shooting and killing only started in June, following the death of George Floyd on May 25, 2020:

Instead, what criminologist Richard Rosenfeld, in his study of weekly homicide totals in 20 cities, calls a “structural break” (the red line in this graph) occurred in the last week in May: i.e., about the time the mayor of Minneapolis let the mob burn down the police station.

A website called summarizes shooting incidents with at least four victims struck by bullets, whether killed or wounded. Here are their graphs for 2019:

And for 2020:

For example, April 2019 saw 45 mass shootings compared to only 27 in April 2020 during the pandemic. But in June, there were 59 mass shootings in 2019 compared to 106 in 2020 during the George Floyd Mourning Process.

Among 2019’s 424 mass shootings, 42% have been “cleared” so far. Among the cleared cases, blacks accounted for 68% of perpetrators, whites for 14%, Latinos for 14%, and Asians for 4%.

In contrast, among 2020’s 603 mass shootings, only 24% have been “cleared” so far. Among the cleared cases, blacks accounted for 73% of perps, whites for 13%, Latinos for 14%, and Asians for 0%.

L.A. Times homicide reporter Jill Leovy’s 2015 book Ghettoside documented that unsolved shootings are usually black-on-black due to the snitches-get-stitches culture of impunity. All this implies that the black share of mass shootings is underestimated in a normal year like 2019, and that the growth in unsolved mass shootings in 2020 was largely due to blacks.

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  1. OT: I’ll take Antifa false flag in DC today for $1000, Alex.

  2. Hockamaw says:

    I think the answer is, both. Or maybe neither. The answer is, the US system of government (not the federal government, but the entire SYSTEM including state and local government) is in the midst of a massive legitimacy crisis. No one believes in the country anymore. No one believes in the system. The pandemic, the lockdowns, the St. George riots. All of it is part and parcel of the greater crisis of legitimacy.

    • Agree: Feedsackroad
  3. One would really have to look at a breakdown of the types of murders, for example whether they used to mostly criminal gang murders with one group killing members of another group, or whether these were domestic violence murders, or whether these were murders where members of the public were violently robbed my criminals.

    My suspicion is that the increase is probably mostly in internecine gang warfare, and that the most probable causes would be the social and economic effects of Covid-19 along with a general political atmosphere of increased racial tensions.

    It would also be interesting to know whether the murder rate has also increased in other countries that have high murder rates such as Jamaica.

    • Replies: @Jonathan Mason
  4. Anon[408] • Disclaimer says:

    What you said. We already have a control: the previous BLM madness of 2014-2016. Murder rates jumped then, as well. No masks then, and no pandemic.

    In addition there were lots of people already predicting that the spike would happen, just as it did.

    Given all of the other deforms happening with our judicial system, thanks to politicians on both side of the divide -plus demographic changes giving us higher proportions of less law-abiding populations, it’s’ likely that higher crime rates are a new, semi-permanent feature of the landscape. It’s back to the 70s-80s-90s for America.

    • Replies: @anon
  5. Tucker Carlson is issuing good commentary on how the media favorably covered the riots during the summer.

    Why the difference in coverage?

    The Anti-Fa/BLM riots were instigated by Jewish oligarchs.
    Today’s relatively mild riot was instigated by non-cucked White Gentiles.

    If you look at all the Jewish individuals on TV, they are seriously freaking out. CNN reporter Gloria Borger even cried. The Jews honestly see today’s disturbance as a real-life pogrom.

    Back in the summer, Jews were acting triumphant because they knew Anti-Fa was their own private army, while BLM was being secretly funded and controlled by wealthy Jews (like George Soros).

    Jews don’t control the small-sized White Gentile contingent that entered DC today. Given those individuals are hostile to the Jewish race-replacement/globalist agenda, Jews are horrified.

    For the same reason, Jews were freaked out by Charlotesville.

    • Replies: @Jonathan Mason
  6. anon[299] • Disclaimer says:

    it’s’ likely that higher crime rates are a new, semi-permanent feature of the landscape. It’s back to the 70s-80s-90s for America.

    But how? Didn’t Stephen Pinker say that all we had to do is what we’ve been doing — more liberalism, more pluralism — and everything would turn out okay? This makes no sense.

  7. anon[395] • Disclaimer says:

    The extent of media bias in favor of the government and democrat party is just astonishing. CNN, Vox, MSNBC — all state media now. They excused violent riots for months — riots accompanied by billions in insurance damage claims, multiple murders, road blocks, shootings, racial intimidation, arson, assaults, dozens of destroyed buildings, multiple firings of dissenters, etc — but now hype a much milder conservative protest into the next Beer Hall Putsch. Remember when they defended Antifa? I do. But now they have a problem with violence? Remember when leftist rioters tried storming the gates of the White House and Trump was ushered into a secure bunker while democrats mocked him for it? I do. So why don’t they? Honestly, this can’t continue. My psyche is going to break under the strain of so many blatant lies. Hopefully, Unz is hinting at a particular solution if I’m reading the most recent selection of articles correctly … the sooner the better. America needs a divorce.

    • Replies: @stillCARealist
  8. man, who cares. the country is over. what difference does the violent crime rate make? it’s always high in third world dumps.

    you seriously think there’s ANY value to article number 753,126 about violent crime rates?

    what a boring, uninteresting blogger you have become. the same couple topics over and over and over for decades. nearly as bad as Jared Taylor.

    will one more statistics article about crime rates finally be the thing that turns the ship around? how about another movie review, or an obscure, Dennis Miller style literary reference. certainly that will move the needle.

    • Troll: James Speaks
  9. @Jim Don Bob

    OT: I’ll take Antifa false flag in DC today for $1000, Alex.

    If it is true, as some reports state, that the protesters were unarmed and later picked up the trash, then Antifa is cleared beyond any shadow of a doubt.

    The Occupy movement left tons of litter for hapless sanitation workers to clean up after their 2011 protests. More recently, the “Women’s March” did the same. The Black Lives Matter movement has been even worse*, adding riots and looting to their mounds of trash.

    *Note the date on this: 3/6/17.

  10. Travis says:

    It’s not a coincidence that the protest and rioting started is in the middle of the COVID crisis after months of lockdowns which closed the schools and resulted in millions of unemployed young people across America with no social outlets open and socializing with friends was effectively outlawed. Without the lockdowns the BLM protests would not have spread from Minnesota to cities across America. Protesting was the only way for young people to socialize and congregate with others, since all bars, clubs, arenas and colleges were shuttered for months. Young people were hit hardest by the lockdowns and vented their frustrations by protesting and rioting. The press put fuel on the fire and the police decided not to enforce the law, thus signaling to the thugs that it was open season on their enemies resulting in increased crime and killings.

    George Floyd’s death was the spark, but the lockdowns were the foundation of the rioting over the summer months. As the lockdowns were intended to flatten the curve in 15 days, yet were still fully in force months after the curve was flattened….the confluence of the lockdowns and the economic collapse fueled the rioting by American youths…driven even more by the fact that people were not only at locked inside their home, they were out of work , out of school and denied the ability to socialize with others for months. The BLM protests was the only way young people were able to get together and interact with others since all other social activities were banned for month after month. The blood is on the hands of the governors for shutting down the nation, creating massive social unrest, joblessness, poverty, social isolation and destruction. BLM rioting was just a side effect of the months of lockdowns.

  11. The pandemic and lockdowns are clearly a convenient race-neutral patsy for any negative crime trend. Unless of course the media needs to harp on minorities being “hardest hit” in one sense or another.

    (Domestic violence might be another matter — remember how there were claims or expectations that these cases might rise due to the lockdowns, but I don’t know if that has been confirmed or studied in some reliable way.)

  12. Anon[171] • Disclaimer says:
    @Jim Don Bob

    No…I think today was MAGA supporters (no need to call them Trump supporters any longer) that have a reached a certain point.

    Ahead of the curve, even.

  13. @Jim Don Bob

    No it was right wing white supremacist terrorists in both instances

    Do you guys talk to people

    EVERYBODY hates the white terrorists insurrectioning the capitol

    Look at the media they are disgusted

    • Replies: @Reg Cæsar
  14. One good thing about the Covid lockdown that Steve, Greg Cochran and all the others pushed is that it has made our Congress look ridiculous!

    Watching them make speeches with those silly masks on is hilarious. Total emasculation.

    I would imagine there are political ramifications from seeing, with your own eyes, the castration of your political “elite”.

  15. The lockdowns were the culprit , not the pandemic. While the peak of the pandemic was in April , the curve was flattened by May yet the lockdowns continued well after the hospitals were empty. The protesting raged in June and July, when the first wave of the pandemic was finished and few were being hospitalized with CV. The rioting and violence spread due to the social unrest and unemployment caused by the lockdowns.
    Without the continued lockdowns the protests would not have spread beyond Minneapolis. George Floyd Would probably be alive and working as a bouncer in June if the lockdowns had ended after the 15 days to flatten the curve ended in April.

  16. Reichstag Fire.

    Perhaps Jewish oligarchs sent Anti-Fa (falsely masquerading as MAGA supporters) to start violence, as a form of false flag. Now they ate using their political and media assets to create a narrative of a “coup” and an “insurrection.”.

    By creating this narrative, Trump and many of his supporters can now be banned from Social Media. There can also be an excuse provided for the FBI to clamp down on “far-right” individuals.

    Jewish oligarchs might’ve created a false flag operation to generate support for a nation-wide clampdown. An excuse to bring in an authoritarian police state.

    Watch this 1 minute Star Wars clip. Something like this may have happened.


    Perhaps Jewish oligarchs staged a false flag operation (using secret Anti-Fa agents) to generate support for a repressive clampdown.

  17. Proof.

    Today’s insurrection was a Jewish-instigated false flag operation.

    Jews sent Anti-Fa to pose as Trump supporters.

    Now an excuse is being provided for a massive crackdown. It’s happening.

    After blatantly rigging the 2020 presidential election, the Jews have now staged a false flag.

    • Replies: @Lot
  18. Lot says:

    BLM got its start with Little Trayvon and Big Mike Brown.

    Antifa was a big deal in Germany and UK for decades, but got its big start here with anti-Trump and anti-Milo/Coulter/Ben Shapiro campus speech riots around 2015 to early 2016. Berkeley 2015 I believe was the site of the first few arsonist Antifa riots and physical attacks on people who appear to be clean normal whites that didn’t result in any arrests at all.

    Then in 2020 they found their synergy.

    1. The antifa of random white PNW methheads, trannies, and other hideous white and hispanic freakshows acting as the vanguard

    2. The twitter-organized blacks as the numbers on the ground

    3. A cowed liberal establishment half happy about the riots and half afraid of cancellation, providing air cover: bailing them out, calling off the urban police forces, taking the knee, repeating the “mostly peaceful” lies in front of burning looted buildings.

    • Agree: ic1000
  19. Mike Tre says:

    Patiently waiting for Whiskey’s take on all of this.

    • Replies: @Whiskey
  20. Altai says:

    The riots were also really exciting and entertaining and were one of the few ‘shows’ being produced at the time. There were dozens of guys who started twitch or YouTube channels with ‘Riot’ in the name, covering the events as livestreams nightly. Some of the footage was insane. My favourite was the guys who were ghost riding squad cars past police in Philadelphia who hadn’t the numbers to stop them.

    This intensified the sense of the crime spree being a accessible carnival of destruction.

  21. Jewish false flag.

    Anti-Fa was used to provoke violence, which has now been blamed on Trump supporters.

  22. It doesn’t really matter since the Black homicide rate will fall once the masks are off.

    Biden will get the credit with some touchy feeling explanation of him bringing the country together. Whether or not that is true makes little difference in a country that lives in total denial of racial differences and seeks to suppress any information that might suggest otherwise.

    Sharp jumps in homicide rates usually drop anyways as the worst criminals kill each other off.

  23. Anon7 says:

    Steve, in answer to your tweet, the bison guy is apparently

    Jake Angeli, shamanic practitioner, leads the crowd in a yell before the march in solidarity with climate activism groups across the country to the Arizona State Capitol Building Friday, September 20, 2019.

  24. Was 2020’s Huge Murder Surge Due to Pandemic or BLM?

    I’m going to commit heresy here and say that it doesn’t matter. Much like a hive of killer African bees, all that is needed is some sort of disturbance. That negroes kill at a much higher rate than whites, higher still when disturbed, is all the clue I need. A population that resorts to murder so easily doesn’t need to be deciding my future, i.e. voting.

  25. JimB says:

    Blacks Love Murder.

  26. Scotist says:

    Here in Slovenia in 2020, there was a significant increase in homicide and rape, and we have almost no blacks. Just saying.

    • Thanks: Jonathan Mason
  27. Whiskey says: • Website
    @Mike Tre

    Steve won’t approve comments. But basically a stolen 1960 or 2000 ??? Election if things stayed the same would not elicit fear and rage.

    Over 60% of small businesses are closing for good. Often those that people spent a lifetime building. If Reps had held the Senate not much would have happened. Biden would have looted the treasury and cut ribbons.

    But they didn’t and so White s fear being home less in America. Call that far and you never get back … if White.

    What’s their downside? Death? They are already facing that. Death as a homeless person in America. The deal elites made of sending nearly all our food to China to prop up Xi is already failing. It’s beyond elite deals and the Great Reset and cockroach diet for Deplorable will be fought.

    How? Likely widespread sabotage. Our system is fragile. Power lines down? No power nothing works. Over and over and over again. There are not enough cips, fbi, and military to watch every mile of transmission lines.

    We had a local outage here. Mylar balloons shorted out a transformer station and caused a huge fire.

    This is not 1933 Germany. More than half the population fears and loathes the other part and has now no alternative to never ending lockdown and the Great Rese t. Elites can force things but at a cost of constant open continent wide rebellion.

    • Thanks: Mike Tre
    • Replies: @Prof. Woland
  28. @Lot

    Never mind the faces. Bramble, Weed, Casebeer, and Gooppin are great names. Brewers should be fighting over who gets Mr Casebeer, you-know-who for Miss Weed.

  29. @Polearm

    Dr. Sykes died on Dec. 10 in Edinburgh, said Ulla Ploughmand, his partner. She did not provide a cause.

    A descendant of Piers?

    He went on to sequence the DNA of “Cheddar Man,” the oldest complete human skeleton in Britain, discovered in a cave outside the town of Cheddar, in southwest England, and found, to the news media’s delight, that one of the man’s descendants was a schoolteacher living nearby.

    A stroke of luck. He was testing the children in the class and, just for the neck of it, threw in their teacher. Who was the only match.

    Bryan Clifford Sykes was born on Sept. 9, 1947, in Eltham, a suburb of London.

    As was Bob Hope. Sykes will get a plaque, too, but probably not a theater.

  30. Kronos says:

    L.A. Times homicide reporter Jill Leovy’s 2015 book Ghettoside documented that unsolved shootings are usually black-on-black due to the snitches-get-stitches culture of impunity. All this implies that the black share of mass shootings is underestimated in a normal year like 2019, and that the growth in unsolved mass shootings in 2020 was largely due to blacks.

    Still one of the best basic primers on the role of “snitchin” in the Black community.

  31. @JohnnyWalker123

    Think about it. If what you say is true, that implies that Trump is so weak and unaware of what is really going on that there is no point in defending him.

  32. eah says:

    Or maybe it was just ghetto Blacks doing a bit more of what ghetto Blacks normally do quite a lot of.

    I mean who cares, honestly? — what exactly do you think could or would be done were the ‘real cause’ to be identified? — are you ever going to grow up and stop trying to be the ghetto murder wonk?

  33. @JohnnyWalker123

    A relatively mild riot? Exactly how often are people shot and killed while invading the Capitol? In the US, that is.

  34. Anon[595] • Disclaimer says:

    In a better world Steve would have a research assistant or intern to do the gruntv work for columns like this.

    This is a reminder that Upwork or even Fiverr have many smart and shockingly cheap Filipinos and flyover country American workers.

  35. @Jonathan Mason

    It would be more interesting to know the breakdown of murders according to the gang affiliation of the suspected killers.

    A researcher or Noticer could plot the interactions between the Bloods, the Crips, the Latin Kings, the Zoes, the Aryan Race, Folk Nation, Dominicans Don’t Play, and dozens of other ethnic street/prison gangs in the battle for turf rights to sell drugs and so on in transitional zones.

  36. I think it is pretty obvious that the deaths of George Floyd and Breona Taylor are because of the pandemic, and not because of systemic racism.

    What else could explain a spike in police brutality apart from the effects of COVID?

  37. anon[771] • Disclaimer says:

    Of course it was the BLM movement. What I want to know is when you people figure out the elites are mostly on your side which is why they endorse all these movements that amout to a periodic culling of the “undesirables” in practice. Black Americans keep dying in droves at the hands of their own people and what they get in exchange is an enabling of that very same behavior by the thugs up top, from endorsements in the Government to new shoes by Nike.

  38. unit472 says:

    A look at the Covid by state case graphs at the Worldometer website shows that only New York City had had a major outbreak of Covid at the time of the George Floyd riots and the subsequent surge in murders. Even here actual infection rates were declining from their peak on April 19th.

    Oregon had hardly any Covid cases prior to George Floyd’s death. There was a small surge right after the rioting began in Portland and a major demonstration in Salem but even today Oregon’s infection rate is well below the national average.

    The same is true in Wisconsin and Illinois. In Illinois cases were declining by the time of Floyd’s death with the first wave peak occurring on May 12th, three weeks before Floyd died. Wisconsin also had a very low incidence of covid infection at the time of Floyd’s death. Not until September/October did Wisconsin become a serious Covid hot spot.

    If Covid was a factor in the riots and surge in murders then we should have seen evidence of this in places like South Dakota, the Navajo nation and Louisiana which were hit early and hard. The Navajo have had more deaths per capita than any other US region with 5 per thousand having already died from the disease

  39. @anon

    The media have been in the pockets of the left since the 60’s. You must be young. In fact, maybe the older folks here can tell me if the MSM were pro-commie even in the 50’s?

  40. NYPD meanwhile today releases stats claiming that overall crime is actually down for the year in the Rotting Apple. Right, that makes me feel so much safer about going to NYC, if there ever again is any reason to do so. Schumer quick to say Jan 6 is another day that will “live in infamy,” but our senator (and his lower-profile blonde puppet) has been a complete no-show on the city’s collapse.

  41. @Whiskey

    Elites can force things but at a cost of constant open continent wide rebellion.

    Whites have a great untapped reservoir of culture and history to draw from while the new comers not so much. Rebellion at this point is simply yelling N****r in a crowed theatre or erecting a statue of someone who invented a lightbulb or a gizmo. They won’t need sabotage anything to cause an uproar, only successfully defending themselves from the regular assaults they receive would be adequate.

  42. @JohnnyWalker123

    “Perhaps” a false flag?

    I’d bet serious money that “pro-Trump” rally was infested/infiltrated with dozens, if not hundreds, of undercover operatives for various federal agencies, including (but not limited to) the FBI, CIA, the military and more.

  43. @Jonathan Mason

    Who did the killings? Trump supporters or cops?

    • Replies: @Jonathan Mason
  44. @Peter Akuleyev

    Feckless as a late Romanov/Bourbon, which puts him head and shoulders above whatever clown show that is that calls itself Congress.

    There were a couple ANTIFA types breaking windows and what not (or maybe another appearance of umbrella man) but the storming of Congress was all MAGA and largely benign.

    Many plan trusters had their eggs in a color revolution type shaming of Pence/Congress into doing the right thing but as throughout never had air cover from any media nor any kind of material support from Trump himself.

    Given pandemic remarkable they got the numbers they did.

  45. @Jonathan Mason

    As if the rioters did that?

    Why do you waste your time rotting your brain like this in service to these monsters, Mason?

  46. Wake up says:

    Was 2020’s Huge Murder Surge Due to Pandemic or BLM?

    Answer: Black DNA

  47. @JohnnyWalker123

    I believe one demonstrator was killed by a cop and one cop was killed by one or more demonstrators. Three other demonstrators died but these were regarded as natural causes, or at least not shootings.

  48. Funny that you would compare 2020 crime stats with those from 1968. Nothing happens spontaneously or coincidentally, not with our Controllers.

    I believe 9/11 and Covid-19 are connected and both were planned as early as 1968. That was the year construction began on the Twin Towers in New York City and the word “coronavirus” first appeared in the science journal “Nature.”  

    The journal was created by Sir Joseph Norman Lockyer in 1869. Lockyer was the world’s first professor of astronomical physics at the Royal College of Science, now part of Imperial College in London.

    Arguably, “Nature” started out as a journal about astronomy and astrology and links Lockyer via Imperial College to Neil Ferguson who I suspect is another freemason and occult astrologer. Officially, Ferguson is an epidemiologist and professor of mathematical biology at Imperial College. 

    In early March of 2020, Ferguson wrongly created a model simulation that falsely predicted 510,000 deaths for Britain and 2.2 million for America in 3 months’ time in June. Thus world-wide panic and lockdowns ensued. Was Ferguson incompetent or just evil?

    I personally think he was more evil than incompetent and did whatever he was told to do by higher-ups.

    9/11 was the crisis and pretext for the Surveillance and Security State and Covid-19 is the crises and pretext for the “Great Reset” and Global Digital Currency.

    Cf. Event 201 and World Economic Forum’s “Great Reset”

    • Replies: @Steve Sailer
  49. @Maowasayali

    “Nothing happens spontaneously or coincidentally, not with our Controllers.”

    There is no Inner Party who know how things work.

    Don’t trust the plan. There is no plan.

  50. Ragno says:

    But the historical record shows that nobody noticed a big increase in criminal violence during the first ten weeks or so of the pandemic.

    You’re wrong, because you’re exactly right. Or as this exchange from CITIZEN KANE explained that ‘historical record’ you cite:

    Mrs Kane: Really, Charles! Why, people will think…..
    Kane: (irritated): ….what I tell them to think. (returns to reading his paper, the matter now closed)

    Substitute any of our media/tech Lords of the Realm for Charles Foster Kane.

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