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From the Washington Post:

Don’t buy the hype: The U.S. is not experiencing a terrible new crime wave

By Mark Holden and Ronal Serpas August 11 at 7:44 PM

Mark Holden is general counsel and senior vice president at Koch Industries. Ronal Serpas is a former superintendent of the New Orleans and Nashville police departments and the chairman of Law Enforcement Leaders to Reduce Crime and Incarceration.

There has been a surge of assertions about rising crime recently. At the Republican convention in July, GOP nominee Donald Trump said, “Decades of progress made in bringing down crime are now being reversed by this administration’s rollback of criminal enforcement.” The Manhattan Institute’s Heather Mac Donald echoed these concerns, noting that homicides increased by nearly 17 percent in the 56 largest U.S. cities last year and citing sharp rises in Baltimore, Chicago and the District. In an op-ed in last Sunday’s Post, Sean Kennedy and Parker Abt made the same case.

As two strong conservatives, let us set the record straight. These statements on rising murders are highly misleading. The truth is that Americans are still experiencing hard-won historic lows in crime. … By 2014, violent crime had fallen by half from its 1991 peak. …

This rise in homicide is alarming on its face. But half of 2015’s murder increase occurred in Baltimore, Chicago and the District — the very cities that those pushing the crime panic repeatedly use as examples. While we must work to address the issues driving this unacceptable localized violence, it is not the norm. These cities are outliers.

… Turning to 2016, data from the Major Cities Chiefs Association show homicides rising 15 percent at midyear. But, again, Chicago caused nearly one-third of that increase.

In other words, the national spike in homicides since Ferguson two years ago has largely been concentrated in precisely those places, such as Baltimore and Chicago, that have been targeted by the establishment’s new conventional wisdom that the real problem with America’s cities is too much law and order.

So, having field-tested the new elite consensus approach in Baltimore, Chicago, and the District, it’s time to roll it out nationally!

What could possibly go wrong with the BLM/Hillary/Koch/Soros/NYT plan for betting the country on less law and order?

Heck, we did that back in the Sixties and all that happened was that we wrecked our greatest cities for a generation (in the case of New York) or maybe forever (in the case of Detroit).

Seriously, I’d be more optimistic about the elite consensus about Ending Mass Incarceration if the elites would first apologize for what their predecessors did wrong in the Sixties and explain what they’d learned from 1960s mistakes.

But instead, we keep hearing about how history began in 1991, so compared to 1991, things are now peachy. I mean, who can possibly remember what happened between 1963 and 1991? Whoever heard of The Sixties? That’s ancient history lost in the mists of time!

 
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  1. Color this in status wars. “A really elite White person would …”

    Not be bothered by record break-ins, rapes, murders, assaults, and other stuff associated with both native NAM criminals and imported Somali, Middle East Muslims, etc.

    How long that can be sustained, status wars vs. getting one’s head knocked in, remains to be seen.

    • Replies: @SFG
    No, that's exactly it. If you have enough money you can have 'diversity'--affirmative action Blacks with Harvard degrees balancing out the Asians, Ashkenazim, and Brahmins (of both sorts). Say what you will about Obama he is not going to mug you on your evening walk. Worrying about diverse crime means you can't buy your way out of it.

    Every age has its shibboleths and falsehoods.
  2. anon • Disclaimer says:

    Looking just at the homicide rate is misleading, Everybody today has a cell phone, paramedics are everywhere, and medical technology is light years ahead of the 1960’s. So many people are surviving today who would have died forty or fifty year ago. The best way to gauge violent crime is to combine the murder and attempted murder rates.

    • Replies: @Steve Sailer
    The new Shotspotter technology has some interesting findings:

    78% of Gunshots in Washington DC Never Reported to the Cops

    https://www.unz.com/isteve/78-of-gunshots-in-washington-dc-never-reported-to-the-cops/

  3. Cyndi Lauper – Girls Just Want To Have Fun

    for the diversity

    • Replies: @Laugh Track
    I don't think I've seen that music video since it was originally on heavy rotation on MTV. Interesting. While the apparent message was a pushback against "serious" feminism ("girls just want to have fun!"), the underlying message in retrospect seems to be "our wacky, multicultural crew of hedonists just want to blow apart any vestiges of old family traditionalism." That was perhaps the cutting edge of Grrrlz feminism.

    At the time of the video (1985), Cyndi was 32 (if I read her timeline correctly), on the tale-end of youthful wackiness. It was, inevitably, all downhill after that.

    The multiculturalism is still with us. Wackiness included at no extra cost.
  4. @anon
    Looking just at the homicide rate is misleading, Everybody today has a cell phone, paramedics are everywhere, and medical technology is light years ahead of the 1960's. So many people are surviving today who would have died forty or fifty year ago. The best way to gauge violent crime is to combine the murder and attempted murder rates.

    The new Shotspotter technology has some interesting findings:

    78% of Gunshots in Washington DC Never Reported to the Cops

    https://www.unz.com/isteve/78-of-gunshots-in-washington-dc-never-reported-to-the-cops/

    • Replies: @snorlax
    Snitches get stitches.
    , @JerseyGuy
    Steve,
    I recall Charles Murray talking about crime post Katrina. He indicated that although crime has of course gone down, there is an obvious correlation to the huge increase in the incarceration rate.

    Instead, what we should look at is the increase in state supervision, which incorporates incarceration, probation, court-order, etc. Looking from those standpoints, crime has actually increased (although the most violent sort of crime has decreased as a result of mass incarceration). Have you seen data like this recently?
    , @NickG

    Shotspotter technology has some interesting findings:

    78% of Gunshots in Washington DC Never Reported to the Cops
     
    It'll be considerably higher than that, Shotspotter will not 'hear' many shots fired indoors.
    , @boogerbently
    That's the same % of rapes never reported in Germany.
  5. valerie jarret, susan rice and hillary clinton having “fun”.

  6. @Whiskey
    Color this in status wars. "A really elite White person would ..."

    Not be bothered by record break-ins, rapes, murders, assaults, and other stuff associated with both native NAM criminals and imported Somali, Middle East Muslims, etc.

    How long that can be sustained, status wars vs. getting one's head knocked in, remains to be seen.

    No, that’s exactly it. If you have enough money you can have ‘diversity’–affirmative action Blacks with Harvard degrees balancing out the Asians, Ashkenazim, and Brahmins (of both sorts). Say what you will about Obama he is not going to mug you on your evening walk. Worrying about diverse crime means you can’t buy your way out of it.

    Every age has its shibboleths and falsehoods.

    • Replies: @wrd9
    Obama is a bad example. He may not directly mug you but he will indirectly do so via his immigration, criminal, or housing policies.
  7. The most deplorable one [AKA "Fourth doorman of the apocalypse"] says:

    Certain parts of the country are experiencing a crime wave, it seems:

    http://www.breitbart.com/big-government/2016/08/11/twin-falls-police-report-mohammed-hussein-eldai/

  8. I love the way the elites cook the statistics. They did with unemployment and made millions of long term unemployed vanish just like magic.

    Now they do it to crime. I understand why they do it though. To paint Trump as a fear monger and keep people from thinking hard about what eight years of Democratic rule has done.

    They’re doing the same with the stock market as well, give the proles the illusion all is well.

    That said some crimes just don’t get reported. A lot of poor folk will not report break-ins and thefts because it’s useless. They know cops don’t care and won’t do nothing. It was the first thing I learned about the police 30+ years ago. The only time I’ve seen break-ins reported is when the person has property insured and needed to document a claim.

    If I was mugged or my house burgled I certainly would report it, I’m too low on the food chain for the Po po to give a shit.

    Same with shootings. For years I used to hear gun shots every night from down the street. Sometimes 15-20 shots. Nobody in the area reported them because I never even heard the sirens once. The shootings only stopped when the blacks were forced out by the Mexicans.

    Luckily we don’t have Somalis and Muzzies in our area yet…

  9. @Steve Sailer
    The new Shotspotter technology has some interesting findings:

    78% of Gunshots in Washington DC Never Reported to the Cops

    https://www.unz.com/isteve/78-of-gunshots-in-washington-dc-never-reported-to-the-cops/

    Snitches get stitches.

  10. @Steve Sailer
    The new Shotspotter technology has some interesting findings:

    78% of Gunshots in Washington DC Never Reported to the Cops

    https://www.unz.com/isteve/78-of-gunshots-in-washington-dc-never-reported-to-the-cops/

    Steve,
    I recall Charles Murray talking about crime post Katrina. He indicated that although crime has of course gone down, there is an obvious correlation to the huge increase in the incarceration rate.

    Instead, what we should look at is the increase in state supervision, which incorporates incarceration, probation, court-order, etc. Looking from those standpoints, crime has actually increased (although the most violent sort of crime has decreased as a result of mass incarceration). Have you seen data like this recently?

    • Replies: @Steve Sailer
    I made up a "Crime Misery Index" graph in 2005 charting homicides plus incarceration, the way people used to talk about an Economic Misery Index of unemployment and inflation.
  11. The libertarians long ago forfeited whatever useful role they had in the political system to fully embrace P.C. stupor. Everything they write now has the tenor of 1930s era USSR broadcasts.

    • Replies: @Anonymous

    The libertarians long ago forfeited whatever useful role they had in the political system to fully embrace P.C. stupor.
     
    Libertarianism has become the party of the politically-correct, amoral cheapskates.

    http://www.thetruthaboutguns.com/2016/08/dean-weingarten/lp-vp-video-gun-ban-terror-watch-list-rifles-weapons-mass-destruction/

    Libertarian VP Pick Weld: Rifles are “Weapons of Mass Destruction”

    ...Weld also opined extensively on the recent police shooting of Philando Castile in Minnesota. He was certain that the police officer had committed a criminal offense and that the officer would be going to jail.
     
    , @snorlax
    The libertarians (I'm ashamed to say I used to be one) have always been quasi-treasonous über-cucks, all the way back to their preferred Cold War strategy of surrendering to the communists, right through their more recent contention that Muslims are peaceable, America-loving folk, only driven to acts of madness and mayhem like 9/11 and their whole 1400-year forever-war against the west by time-traveling, telepathic osmosis of anger at the Bush Foreign Policy.[1]

    It shouldn't be at all surprising that they're slobbering all over the neocons this time around. It's two groups whose fundamental ideology is disloyalty to their nation, so it's six of one and half a dozen of the other.

    [1] Events unfortunately transpired to make this worldview look quasi-reasonable to a good number of people like me, for a while.
  12. “But half of 2015’s murder increase occurred in Baltimore, Chicago and the District — the very cities that those pushing the crime panic repeatedly use as examples.”

    That was the funniest thing I’ve read in a long time.

    • Agree: ben tillman
  13. @JerseyGuy
    Steve,
    I recall Charles Murray talking about crime post Katrina. He indicated that although crime has of course gone down, there is an obvious correlation to the huge increase in the incarceration rate.

    Instead, what we should look at is the increase in state supervision, which incorporates incarceration, probation, court-order, etc. Looking from those standpoints, crime has actually increased (although the most violent sort of crime has decreased as a result of mass incarceration). Have you seen data like this recently?

    I made up a “Crime Misery Index” graph in 2005 charting homicides plus incarceration, the way people used to talk about an Economic Misery Index of unemployment and inflation.

  14. I don’t know what it’s like elsewhere, but here in Topeka there were four homicides in the last week– all black victims and no suspects in custody. The general population doesn’t seem too riled up about it.

    • Replies: @Charles Erwin Wilson
    Koch Industries insists that those four homicides were accidents, and they have the conservative chops to persuade the population that you should accept accidental deaths by gunfire as the norm!

    Charles Koch for President!
    , @Buffalo Joe
    Kansan, Buffalo had 37 recorded shootings last month, four of which were fatal. The Buffalo News, a way left paper owned by Warren Buffet, reported on the increase in shootings in a very concerned way, apparently the Kochs don't consult with Buffet. Cleveland, another small northeastern city similar to Buffalo, has become a war zone, with murders per 100k approaching Third World numbers, but I guess if the MSM and Obama and the Koch brothers say differently, who am I to argue.
    , @Mark F.
    Right, white folks don't generally give a flying leap about violence as long as it is confined to the black community. I live in Berkeley, CA, and nobody really cares about the black on black shootings in next door Oakland or here (still fairly rare). Blacks start killing more whites and you will have a problem.
  15. As two strong conservatives, let us set the record straight.

    Why does the WaPo think that each of its readers somehow constitutes “two strong conservatives”? Would it kill the Lügenpresse to employ writers or editors who could pass an undergrad English class at a football school?

    • Replies: @RonaldB
    "Why does the WaPo think that each of its readers somehow constitutes “two strong conservatives”?"

    Truthfully, I don't see how you derived your sentence from theirs. Could you be a bit more detailed on the grammar rules which cause your objection to the article's sentence?
  16. And why exactly, is a lawyer from Koch weighing in on the issue? What concern does Koch have with crime unless the Koch he is from is actually Heckler und Koch? ( Sing brother Heckler! Sing brother Koch!)

    • Replies: @Jack D
    No, this guy works for the well known Koch billionaire family , who are normally big Republican contributors in Presidential campaigns (and therefore leftist bogeymen) but are not supporting Trump. The purpose of this editorial was to undermine Trump (and therefore support Hillary). That's pretty obvious.

    Now in reality this piece will change the votes of zero people, but it was meant as a shot across Trump's bow to signal "not only do we not support you even though you are the Republican candidate, we will undermine you every chance we get".

    Trump's anti-immigration, anti-globalization agenda is clearly bad for billionaires, even right wing Republican billionaires. Ideology is one thing, but when your wallet is threatened that overrides everything. If the Koch family was only worth $80 billion instead of $100 billion, that would be tragic.

  17. Anonymous • Disclaimer says:
    @idle hands
    The libertarians long ago forfeited whatever useful role they had in the political system to fully embrace P.C. stupor. Everything they write now has the tenor of 1930s era USSR broadcasts.

    The libertarians long ago forfeited whatever useful role they had in the political system to fully embrace P.C. stupor.

    Libertarianism has become the party of the politically-correct, amoral cheapskates.

    http://www.thetruthaboutguns.com/2016/08/dean-weingarten/lp-vp-video-gun-ban-terror-watch-list-rifles-weapons-mass-destruction/

    Libertarian VP Pick Weld: Rifles are “Weapons of Mass Destruction”

    …Weld also opined extensively on the recent police shooting of Philando Castile in Minnesota. He was certain that the police officer had committed a criminal offense and that the officer would be going to jail.

    • Replies: @Thomas

    William Weld:

    The five shot rifle, that’s a standard military rifle; the problem is if you attach a clip to it so it can fire more shells and if you remove the pin so that it becomes an automatic weapon, and those are independent criminal offenses. That is when they become, essentially a weapon of mass destruction.
     

    Oh my God. That has to be just about the most thoroughly factually ignorant public statement ever made about firearms in modern political speech, and that's saying a lot.

    Libertarians traditionally were the most unreserved 2nd Amendment supporters in American politics and included a lot of gunnies, to say nothing of the fact that the "terrorist watchlist" ban dispenses with due process. And this is who they have as a Vice Presidential candidate??

  18. OT:

    From Populaton Bomb to Demographic Shock.

    More Old Than Young: A Demographic Shock Sweeps the Globe

    It’s known as the historic reversal, and it appears irreversible: Places where the old outnumber kids.

    What began in 1995 in a single country, Italy, will spread to 56 nations, economies as diverse as New Zealand and Georgia, by 2030.

    … industrialized nations like Japan and Germany succumbing to the age curse.

    • Replies: @Jean Cocteausten
    This is not necessarily off topic. How much of the drop in the crime rate was due to there being proportionately fewer 16-24s in the population?
  19. The General Counsel for a corporation usually isn’t that well-versed in criminal law, unless of the white collar variety.

    Evidently it’s different a Koch Industries.

  20. @Kansan
    I don't know what it's like elsewhere, but here in Topeka there were four homicides in the last week-- all black victims and no suspects in custody. The general population doesn't seem too riled up about it.

    Koch Industries insists that those four homicides were accidents, and they have the conservative chops to persuade the population that you should accept accidental deaths by gunfire as the norm!

    Charles Koch for President!

  21. But still, most Americans don’t feel a rise in crime and therefore it’s not a good idea to use law and order as a campaign platform. Trump should switch to more positive rhetoric.

    • Replies: @Mark F.
    He better switch to something else , anything, as it looks like he is going down bad. No candidate with a poll deficit 2 weeks after the last political convention has won the popular vote since 1952. (Gore lost the electoral vote, but won the popular vote). And Trump is down -9 in PA , a state he virtually must win.
  22. At Koch Industries, run by those well-known conservatives the Koch brothers, it’s all hands on deck for Hillary!

    • Replies: @Maj. Kong
    The Koch brothers have traveled far from their John Birch Society supporting father.

    If one wants to be conspiratorial about it, perhaps the whole JBS was a front organization to smoke out the radical right.

    https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Operation_Trust
  23. A lot of important wealthy elite people who have donated millions of dollars to Crooked Hildabeast’s campaign reside in Chicago, so I am surprised that city has not adopted a police state.

    Not adopting a police state for Baltimore makes sense, because nobody important on the political Left resides in Baltimore. The Democratic Party is not grooming Stephanie Rawlings Blake to become the future first Black female POTUS. At least I have not read any rumors that the DNC has huge plans for her.

  24. @newrouter
    Cyndi Lauper - Girls Just Want To Have Fun

    https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=PIb6AZdTr-A

    for the diversity

    I don’t think I’ve seen that music video since it was originally on heavy rotation on MTV. Interesting. While the apparent message was a pushback against “serious” feminism (“girls just want to have fun!”), the underlying message in retrospect seems to be “our wacky, multicultural crew of hedonists just want to blow apart any vestiges of old family traditionalism.” That was perhaps the cutting edge of Grrrlz feminism.

    At the time of the video (1985), Cyndi was 32 (if I read her timeline correctly), on the tale-end of youthful wackiness. It was, inevitably, all downhill after that.

    The multiculturalism is still with us. Wackiness included at no extra cost.

    • Replies: @yowza

    I don’t think I’ve seen that music video since it was originally on heavy rotation on MTV. Interesting. While the apparent message was a pushback against “serious” feminism (“girls just want to have fun!”), the underlying message in retrospect seems to be “our wacky, multicultural crew of hedonists just want to blow apart any vestiges of old family traditionalism.” That was perhaps the cutting edge of Grrrlz feminism.

    At the time of the video (1985), Cyndi was 32 (if I read her timeline correctly), on the tale-end of youthful wackiness. It was, inevitably, all downhill after that.
     
    I always considered it an anthem to all the girls who are still at the party at 3 in the morning that you wind up fucking because they're the only ones left and you've had 5 beers.

    They certainly deserve some recognition after all they've been through.
  25. @Harry Baldwin
    At Koch Industries, run by those well-known conservatives the Koch brothers, it's all hands on deck for Hillary!

    The Koch brothers have traveled far from their John Birch Society supporting father.

    If one wants to be conspiratorial about it, perhaps the whole JBS was a front organization to smoke out the radical right.

    https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Operation_Trust

    • Replies: @Avenge Harambe
    Or perhaps, William F. Buckley and NR was a front organization to smoke out the traditional nationalist right.
  26. Don’t buy the hype: The U.S. is not experiencing a terrible new crime wave

    Somehow I don’t think these guys are going to write a story entitled, “Don’t buy the hype: The cops are not killing a terribly high number of blacks”. I don’t think they’ll write, “Don’t buy the hype: The U.S. is not a racist country.”

    No, for those topics it’s always lunchtime at a diner in 1958 Mississippi.

    • Replies: @Jefferson
    "Somehow I don’t think these guys are going to write a story entitled, “Don’t buy the hype: The cops are not killing a terribly high number of blacks”. I don’t think they’ll write, “Don’t buy the hype: The U.S. is not a racist country.”

    No, for those topics it’s always lunchtime at a diner in 1958 Mississippi."

    Even when it's 2058 it will still always be Mississippi in 1958, even though every member of the civil rights movement will be long dead by that time.

  27. @Laugh Track
    I don't think I've seen that music video since it was originally on heavy rotation on MTV. Interesting. While the apparent message was a pushback against "serious" feminism ("girls just want to have fun!"), the underlying message in retrospect seems to be "our wacky, multicultural crew of hedonists just want to blow apart any vestiges of old family traditionalism." That was perhaps the cutting edge of Grrrlz feminism.

    At the time of the video (1985), Cyndi was 32 (if I read her timeline correctly), on the tale-end of youthful wackiness. It was, inevitably, all downhill after that.

    The multiculturalism is still with us. Wackiness included at no extra cost.

    I don’t think I’ve seen that music video since it was originally on heavy rotation on MTV. Interesting. While the apparent message was a pushback against “serious” feminism (“girls just want to have fun!”), the underlying message in retrospect seems to be “our wacky, multicultural crew of hedonists just want to blow apart any vestiges of old family traditionalism.” That was perhaps the cutting edge of Grrrlz feminism.

    At the time of the video (1985), Cyndi was 32 (if I read her timeline correctly), on the tale-end of youthful wackiness. It was, inevitably, all downhill after that.

    I always considered it an anthem to all the girls who are still at the party at 3 in the morning that you wind up fucking because they’re the only ones left and you’ve had 5 beers.

    They certainly deserve some recognition after all they’ve been through.

    • Replies: @BenKenobi
    You've only had five beers by 3am?!
  28. @iSteveFan

    Don’t buy the hype: The U.S. is not experiencing a terrible new crime wave
     
    Somehow I don't think these guys are going to write a story entitled, "Don’t buy the hype: The cops are not killing a terribly high number of blacks". I don't think they'll write, "Don’t buy the hype: The U.S. is not a racist country."

    No, for those topics it's always lunchtime at a diner in 1958 Mississippi.

    “Somehow I don’t think these guys are going to write a story entitled, “Don’t buy the hype: The cops are not killing a terribly high number of blacks”. I don’t think they’ll write, “Don’t buy the hype: The U.S. is not a racist country.”

    No, for those topics it’s always lunchtime at a diner in 1958 Mississippi.”

    Even when it’s 2058 it will still always be Mississippi in 1958, even though every member of the civil rights movement will be long dead by that time.

  29. @idle hands
    The libertarians long ago forfeited whatever useful role they had in the political system to fully embrace P.C. stupor. Everything they write now has the tenor of 1930s era USSR broadcasts.

    The libertarians (I’m ashamed to say I used to be one) have always been quasi-treasonous über-cucks, all the way back to their preferred Cold War strategy of surrendering to the communists, right through their more recent contention that Muslims are peaceable, America-loving folk, only driven to acts of madness and mayhem like 9/11 and their whole 1400-year forever-war against the west by time-traveling, telepathic osmosis of anger at the Bush Foreign Policy.[1]

    It shouldn’t be at all surprising that they’re slobbering all over the neocons this time around. It’s two groups whose fundamental ideology is disloyalty to their nation, so it’s six of one and half a dozen of the other.

    [1] Events unfortunately transpired to make this worldview look quasi-reasonable to a good number of people like me, for a while.

    • Replies: @Blobby5
    I think the Rothbardians/Lew Rockwell / Ron Paul branch are more in the paleo Robert Taft mold.
    , @Percy Gryce
    There's nothing shameful about being a librarian.

    What? Oh--libertarian.

    Ohh.
  30. While we must work to address the issues driving this unacceptable localized violence, it is not the norm. These cities are outliers.

    Outliers don’t drive averages. If the averages are up, the trendline is rising, something’s going on. Despite the WaPo’s desire to gaslight us to the contrary view.

    • Replies: @Steve Sailer
    The outliers have all been on the Up side instead of the Down side. Most of the outliers have been cities like St. Louis, Baltimore, and Chicago targeted by Black Lives Matter and the Justice Department.
    , @Jack D

    Outliers don’t drive averages.
     
    Sure they do, especially if the outliers are major cities such as Chicago, DC and Baltimore and all the odd data points fall on one side. If say the murder rate is up 50% in cities containing 10% of the population and unchanged in the other 90%, it will drive the national average up 5%.
  31. @Trelane
    While we must work to address the issues driving this unacceptable localized violence, it is not the norm. These cities are outliers.

    Outliers don't drive averages. If the averages are up, the trendline is rising, something's going on. Despite the WaPo's desire to gaslight us to the contrary view.

    The outliers have all been on the Up side instead of the Down side. Most of the outliers have been cities like St. Louis, Baltimore, and Chicago targeted by Black Lives Matter and the Justice Department.

    • Replies: @Trelane
    OK. So if all the outliers are Up (and none are Down) the averages may be skewed higher. You're right.
    , @Brutusale
    Boston? -4, if my memory serves.
  32. The murder rate in Oakland, California in 1955 was zero. But don’t believe your lying eyes. The Fifties were just a myth told by racist, misogynistic old white folks to their grandchildren.

    • Replies: @Boris
    Cool story. The current US murder rate is not far from the lows seen in the 1950s. (4.5 per 100k 2014 vs. 4.0/100k in 1957).
  33. @Steve Sailer
    The outliers have all been on the Up side instead of the Down side. Most of the outliers have been cities like St. Louis, Baltimore, and Chicago targeted by Black Lives Matter and the Justice Department.

    OK. So if all the outliers are Up (and none are Down) the averages may be skewed higher. You’re right.

  34. @snorlax
    The libertarians (I'm ashamed to say I used to be one) have always been quasi-treasonous über-cucks, all the way back to their preferred Cold War strategy of surrendering to the communists, right through their more recent contention that Muslims are peaceable, America-loving folk, only driven to acts of madness and mayhem like 9/11 and their whole 1400-year forever-war against the west by time-traveling, telepathic osmosis of anger at the Bush Foreign Policy.[1]

    It shouldn't be at all surprising that they're slobbering all over the neocons this time around. It's two groups whose fundamental ideology is disloyalty to their nation, so it's six of one and half a dozen of the other.

    [1] Events unfortunately transpired to make this worldview look quasi-reasonable to a good number of people like me, for a while.

    I think the Rothbardians/Lew Rockwell / Ron Paul branch are more in the paleo Robert Taft mold.

  35. I interviewed with Mark Holden for a job years ago. Of all things, we ended up talking about The Wire, which he hadn’t seen. Apparently, he still hasn’t.

  36. @snorlax
    The libertarians (I'm ashamed to say I used to be one) have always been quasi-treasonous über-cucks, all the way back to their preferred Cold War strategy of surrendering to the communists, right through their more recent contention that Muslims are peaceable, America-loving folk, only driven to acts of madness and mayhem like 9/11 and their whole 1400-year forever-war against the west by time-traveling, telepathic osmosis of anger at the Bush Foreign Policy.[1]

    It shouldn't be at all surprising that they're slobbering all over the neocons this time around. It's two groups whose fundamental ideology is disloyalty to their nation, so it's six of one and half a dozen of the other.

    [1] Events unfortunately transpired to make this worldview look quasi-reasonable to a good number of people like me, for a while.

    There’s nothing shameful about being a librarian.

    What? Oh–libertarian.

    Ohh.

  37. @Anonymous

    The libertarians long ago forfeited whatever useful role they had in the political system to fully embrace P.C. stupor.
     
    Libertarianism has become the party of the politically-correct, amoral cheapskates.

    http://www.thetruthaboutguns.com/2016/08/dean-weingarten/lp-vp-video-gun-ban-terror-watch-list-rifles-weapons-mass-destruction/

    Libertarian VP Pick Weld: Rifles are “Weapons of Mass Destruction”

    ...Weld also opined extensively on the recent police shooting of Philando Castile in Minnesota. He was certain that the police officer had committed a criminal offense and that the officer would be going to jail.
     

    William Weld:

    The five shot rifle, that’s a standard military rifle; the problem is if you attach a clip to it so it can fire more shells and if you remove the pin so that it becomes an automatic weapon, and those are independent criminal offenses. That is when they become, essentially a weapon of mass destruction.

    Oh my God. That has to be just about the most thoroughly factually ignorant public statement ever made about firearms in modern political speech, and that’s saying a lot.

    Libertarians traditionally were the most unreserved 2nd Amendment supporters in American politics and included a lot of gunnies, to say nothing of the fact that the “terrorist watchlist” ban dispenses with due process. And this is who they have as a Vice Presidential candidate??

    • Replies: @Bert
    There's a very strong cultural Marxist element within American libertarianism. Talk to most so-called libertarians and you quickly realize they have no problem with a strong central government so long as said government only exists to enforce civil rights and gay marriage etc. Of course most try and couch this with the notion that discrimination threatens the free market and therefore cannot be allowed. Try and point out the fundamental hypocrisy of Total Freedom But Not Bad Freedom and they'll just get angry and call you racist same as the average liberal. There's also a gigantic amount of gays in the movement, far more than I ever imagined.

    Libertarianism more so than even the pre-Trump GOP is very concerned with staying inside the Overton window. They're pretty much a spent intellectual force at this point.
  38. @Steve Sailer
    The new Shotspotter technology has some interesting findings:

    78% of Gunshots in Washington DC Never Reported to the Cops

    https://www.unz.com/isteve/78-of-gunshots-in-washington-dc-never-reported-to-the-cops/

    Shotspotter technology has some interesting findings:

    78% of Gunshots in Washington DC Never Reported to the Cops

    It’ll be considerably higher than that, Shotspotter will not ‘hear’ many shots fired indoors.

  39. He’s right if one just considers the white population. The rate of whites committing homicide in Chicago is nearly zero, usually domestics and crazies with the occasional strange case. Discussions of such subjects are usually too hazy, lumping everyone in together.

  40. As two strong conservatives, let us set the record straight.

    Hahahahahaha! Good one!

    “And what do you believe in? Preservation of capital?”

    ~ Renaud, The World is Not Enough.

  41. @Hippopotamusdrome
    OT:

    From Populaton Bomb to Demographic Shock.


    More Old Than Young: A Demographic Shock Sweeps the Globe
    ...
    It’s known as the historic reversal, and it appears irreversible: Places where the old outnumber kids.

    What began in 1995 in a single country, Italy, will spread to 56 nations, economies as diverse as New Zealand and Georgia, by 2030.
    ...
    ... industrialized nations like Japan and Germany succumbing to the age curse.

     

    This is not necessarily off topic. How much of the drop in the crime rate was due to there being proportionately fewer 16-24s in the population?

  42. @yowza

    I don’t think I’ve seen that music video since it was originally on heavy rotation on MTV. Interesting. While the apparent message was a pushback against “serious” feminism (“girls just want to have fun!”), the underlying message in retrospect seems to be “our wacky, multicultural crew of hedonists just want to blow apart any vestiges of old family traditionalism.” That was perhaps the cutting edge of Grrrlz feminism.

    At the time of the video (1985), Cyndi was 32 (if I read her timeline correctly), on the tale-end of youthful wackiness. It was, inevitably, all downhill after that.
     
    I always considered it an anthem to all the girls who are still at the party at 3 in the morning that you wind up fucking because they're the only ones left and you've had 5 beers.

    They certainly deserve some recognition after all they've been through.

    You’ve only had five beers by 3am?!

    • Replies: @Brutusale
    Five Buds? Yeah, lame.

    Five St. Bernardus Abt 12 (11% ABV) 25 ouncers? Flat out drunk. Or just flat out.
  43. @Maj. Kong
    The Koch brothers have traveled far from their John Birch Society supporting father.

    If one wants to be conspiratorial about it, perhaps the whole JBS was a front organization to smoke out the radical right.

    https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Operation_Trust

    Or perhaps, William F. Buckley and NR was a front organization to smoke out the traditional nationalist right.

    • Replies: @Maj. Kong
    You can't really say its a front organization when everyone knew that WF Buckley Jr* was a CIA asset.

    *There was another William Buckley in the CIA killed in Lebanon during the 80s.
  44. “Homicides increased 17% in the 56 largest cities” is apparently a highly misleading assertion.

    Reminds one of the trope “Your opinions are facts, while my facts are opinions.”

  45. What could possibly go wrong with the BLM/Hillary/Koch/Soros/NYT plan for betting the country on less law and order?

    Redefining discriminatory police actions as “law and order” seems to be a tacit admission that there is no legitimate rational argument for their continuation. Should police officers be held accountable for lying on police reports as they did in the Laquan MacDonald case? Enforcing laws against falsification of public records seems like more “law and order” to me, not less. Removing biased police officers and cracking down on police offenses is certainly unpopular with law enforcement, but there is no real argument against doing so, only whining and empty rhetoric.

  46. @Alfa158
    And why exactly, is a lawyer from Koch weighing in on the issue? What concern does Koch have with crime unless the Koch he is from is actually Heckler und Koch? ( Sing brother Heckler! Sing brother Koch!)

    No, this guy works for the well known Koch billionaire family , who are normally big Republican contributors in Presidential campaigns (and therefore leftist bogeymen) but are not supporting Trump. The purpose of this editorial was to undermine Trump (and therefore support Hillary). That’s pretty obvious.

    Now in reality this piece will change the votes of zero people, but it was meant as a shot across Trump’s bow to signal “not only do we not support you even though you are the Republican candidate, we will undermine you every chance we get”.

    Trump’s anti-immigration, anti-globalization agenda is clearly bad for billionaires, even right wing Republican billionaires. Ideology is one thing, but when your wallet is threatened that overrides everything. If the Koch family was only worth $80 billion instead of $100 billion, that would be tragic.

    • Replies: @Jefferson
    "Ideology is one thing, but when your wallet is threatened that overrides everything."

    The Democratic Party are the party of taxing the rich to their eyeballs, but that doesn't stop most millionaires and billionaires from continuing to vote Democrat. So if you are like most wealthy people who tend to be on the political Left, your ideology does trump your wallet.

    Even though the mainstream media falsely paints The GOP as the Scrooge McDuck & Mr. Burns party, in reality it is The DNC who fits that bill.

    The top 10 wealthiest counties in the nation all vote majority Democrat. The Democratic Party has majority support from Wall Street, Manhattan, Hollywood, The Hamptons, Martha's Vineyard, Silicon Valley, and the affluent suburbs of Washington DC.

    The Republican Party actually punches below their weight when it comes to wealthy voters.

    Not many wealthy voters outside of Texas vote Republican.

    The Republican Party is the blue collar Roseanne and All In The Family party. It's not the Beverly Hills 90210 party. Hence why the vast majority of Republican states are in the South, which is the least affluent region of the nation.
  47. @Steve Sailer
    The new Shotspotter technology has some interesting findings:

    78% of Gunshots in Washington DC Never Reported to the Cops

    https://www.unz.com/isteve/78-of-gunshots-in-washington-dc-never-reported-to-the-cops/

    That’s the same % of rapes never reported in Germany.

  48. @Trelane
    While we must work to address the issues driving this unacceptable localized violence, it is not the norm. These cities are outliers.

    Outliers don't drive averages. If the averages are up, the trendline is rising, something's going on. Despite the WaPo's desire to gaslight us to the contrary view.

    Outliers don’t drive averages.

    Sure they do, especially if the outliers are major cities such as Chicago, DC and Baltimore and all the odd data points fall on one side. If say the murder rate is up 50% in cities containing 10% of the population and unchanged in the other 90%, it will drive the national average up 5%.

  49. @Anonymous
    The murder rate in Oakland, California in 1955 was zero. But don't believe your lying eyes. The Fifties were just a myth told by racist, misogynistic old white folks to their grandchildren.

    Cool story. The current US murder rate is not far from the lows seen in the 1950s. (4.5 per 100k 2014 vs. 4.0/100k in 1957).

    • Replies: @Oleaginous Outrager
    So how many more bodies is a mere "0.5 per 100k" in a population nearly twice as large, or does that not matter, because you found an abstract number that allows you to feel content about the state of the world?
  50. @ben tillman

    As two strong conservatives, let us set the record straight.
     
    Why does the WaPo think that each of its readers somehow constitutes "two strong conservatives"? Would it kill the Lügenpresse to employ writers or editors who could pass an undergrad English class at a football school?

    “Why does the WaPo think that each of its readers somehow constitutes “two strong conservatives”?”

    Truthfully, I don’t see how you derived your sentence from theirs. Could you be a bit more detailed on the grammar rules which cause your objection to the article’s sentence?

    • Replies: @ben tillman
    In an imperative sentence, the subject is "you". Although it is elided, "you" is the word that the introductory phrase modifies.
  51. @Kansan
    I don't know what it's like elsewhere, but here in Topeka there were four homicides in the last week-- all black victims and no suspects in custody. The general population doesn't seem too riled up about it.

    Kansan, Buffalo had 37 recorded shootings last month, four of which were fatal. The Buffalo News, a way left paper owned by Warren Buffet, reported on the increase in shootings in a very concerned way, apparently the Kochs don’t consult with Buffet. Cleveland, another small northeastern city similar to Buffalo, has become a war zone, with murders per 100k approaching Third World numbers, but I guess if the MSM and Obama and the Koch brothers say differently, who am I to argue.

    • Replies: @Jefferson
    "Kansan, Buffalo had 37 recorded shootings last month, four of which were fatal. The Buffalo News, a way left paper owned by Warren Buffet, reported on the increase in shootings in a very concerned way, apparently the Kochs don’t consult with Buffet. Cleveland, another small northeastern city similar to Buffalo, has become a war zone, with murders per 100k approaching Third World numbers, but I guess if the MSM and Obama and the Koch brothers say differently, who am I to argue."

    Cleveland is part of the Midwest, not the Northeast. It's flyover country and nobody in Cleveland has funny sounding Northeast accents like Tony Danza, Andrew Dice Clay, Marisa Tomei, and Fran Drescher for example.

    Cleveland natives have generic Anywhereville American accents.

  52. @Jack D
    No, this guy works for the well known Koch billionaire family , who are normally big Republican contributors in Presidential campaigns (and therefore leftist bogeymen) but are not supporting Trump. The purpose of this editorial was to undermine Trump (and therefore support Hillary). That's pretty obvious.

    Now in reality this piece will change the votes of zero people, but it was meant as a shot across Trump's bow to signal "not only do we not support you even though you are the Republican candidate, we will undermine you every chance we get".

    Trump's anti-immigration, anti-globalization agenda is clearly bad for billionaires, even right wing Republican billionaires. Ideology is one thing, but when your wallet is threatened that overrides everything. If the Koch family was only worth $80 billion instead of $100 billion, that would be tragic.

    “Ideology is one thing, but when your wallet is threatened that overrides everything.”

    The Democratic Party are the party of taxing the rich to their eyeballs, but that doesn’t stop most millionaires and billionaires from continuing to vote Democrat. So if you are like most wealthy people who tend to be on the political Left, your ideology does trump your wallet.

    Even though the mainstream media falsely paints The GOP as the Scrooge McDuck & Mr. Burns party, in reality it is The DNC who fits that bill.

    The top 10 wealthiest counties in the nation all vote majority Democrat. The Democratic Party has majority support from Wall Street, Manhattan, Hollywood, The Hamptons, Martha’s Vineyard, Silicon Valley, and the affluent suburbs of Washington DC.

    The Republican Party actually punches below their weight when it comes to wealthy voters.

    Not many wealthy voters outside of Texas vote Republican.

    The Republican Party is the blue collar Roseanne and All In The Family party. It’s not the Beverly Hills 90210 party. Hence why the vast majority of Republican states are in the South, which is the least affluent region of the nation.

  53. There is a television show called Scream Queens, where they portray all of the snobby blue blood old money wealthy elite Kappa Kappa sorority White girls as coming from Republican families. Which is extremely unrealistic because most of that demographic votes Democrat.

    There is a scene where Emma Roberts character who is president of Kappa Kappa Tau, tells her friends that her parents can’t spend time with her this weekend because they are too busy campaigning for Ted Cruz. It would have been a lot more realistic if they replaced Ted Cruz with Hillary Clinton.

    • Replies: @ben tillman

    There is a television show called Scream Queens, where they portray all of the snobby blue blood old money wealthy elite Kappa Kappa sorority White girls as coming from Republican families. Which is extremely unrealistic because most of that demographic votes Democrat.
     
    Snobbish, exclusive sororities are really a Southern thing, and the parents of Kappas and Pi Phis are overwhelmingly Republican.
  54. Surely the huge baby boom increase in young men from 1963-1990 explains some of the big increases in crime during that time.

  55. @Jason Liu
    But still, most Americans don't feel a rise in crime and therefore it's not a good idea to use law and order as a campaign platform. Trump should switch to more positive rhetoric.

    He better switch to something else , anything, as it looks like he is going down bad. No candidate with a poll deficit 2 weeks after the last political convention has won the popular vote since 1952. (Gore lost the electoral vote, but won the popular vote). And Trump is down -9 in PA , a state he virtually must win.

    • Replies: @yowza

    He better switch to something else , anything, as it looks like he is going down bad. No candidate with a poll deficit 2 weeks after the last political convention has won the popular vote since 1952. (Gore lost the electoral vote, but won the popular vote). And Trump is down -9 in PA , a state he virtually must win.
     
    Hey, look everyone! Mark thinks major media political polls are non-biased, and can't possibly be rigged by poll creators, especially in this election where fair play is far more important than political affiliation!
  56. @Kansan
    I don't know what it's like elsewhere, but here in Topeka there were four homicides in the last week-- all black victims and no suspects in custody. The general population doesn't seem too riled up about it.

    Right, white folks don’t generally give a flying leap about violence as long as it is confined to the black community. I live in Berkeley, CA, and nobody really cares about the black on black shootings in next door Oakland or here (still fairly rare). Blacks start killing more whites and you will have a problem.

  57. @SFG
    No, that's exactly it. If you have enough money you can have 'diversity'--affirmative action Blacks with Harvard degrees balancing out the Asians, Ashkenazim, and Brahmins (of both sorts). Say what you will about Obama he is not going to mug you on your evening walk. Worrying about diverse crime means you can't buy your way out of it.

    Every age has its shibboleths and falsehoods.

    Obama is a bad example. He may not directly mug you but he will indirectly do so via his immigration, criminal, or housing policies.

  58. But instead, we keep hearing about how history began in 1991, so compared to 1991, things are now peachy.

    It’s like the use of 1979 – the start of the era of satellite temperature records – to claim current temperatures are the highest on record.

  59. @RonaldB
    "Why does the WaPo think that each of its readers somehow constitutes “two strong conservatives”?"

    Truthfully, I don't see how you derived your sentence from theirs. Could you be a bit more detailed on the grammar rules which cause your objection to the article's sentence?

    In an imperative sentence, the subject is “you”. Although it is elided, “you” is the word that the introductory phrase modifies.

  60. @Jefferson
    There is a television show called Scream Queens, where they portray all of the snobby blue blood old money wealthy elite Kappa Kappa sorority White girls as coming from Republican families. Which is extremely unrealistic because most of that demographic votes Democrat.

    There is a scene where Emma Roberts character who is president of Kappa Kappa Tau, tells her friends that her parents can't spend time with her this weekend because they are too busy campaigning for Ted Cruz. It would have been a lot more realistic if they replaced Ted Cruz with Hillary Clinton.

    There is a television show called Scream Queens, where they portray all of the snobby blue blood old money wealthy elite Kappa Kappa sorority White girls as coming from Republican families. Which is extremely unrealistic because most of that demographic votes Democrat.

    Snobbish, exclusive sororities are really a Southern thing, and the parents of Kappas and Pi Phis are overwhelmingly Republican.

  61. @Thomas

    William Weld:

    The five shot rifle, that’s a standard military rifle; the problem is if you attach a clip to it so it can fire more shells and if you remove the pin so that it becomes an automatic weapon, and those are independent criminal offenses. That is when they become, essentially a weapon of mass destruction.
     

    Oh my God. That has to be just about the most thoroughly factually ignorant public statement ever made about firearms in modern political speech, and that's saying a lot.

    Libertarians traditionally were the most unreserved 2nd Amendment supporters in American politics and included a lot of gunnies, to say nothing of the fact that the "terrorist watchlist" ban dispenses with due process. And this is who they have as a Vice Presidential candidate??

    There’s a very strong cultural Marxist element within American libertarianism. Talk to most so-called libertarians and you quickly realize they have no problem with a strong central government so long as said government only exists to enforce civil rights and gay marriage etc. Of course most try and couch this with the notion that discrimination threatens the free market and therefore cannot be allowed. Try and point out the fundamental hypocrisy of Total Freedom But Not Bad Freedom and they’ll just get angry and call you racist same as the average liberal. There’s also a gigantic amount of gays in the movement, far more than I ever imagined.

    Libertarianism more so than even the pre-Trump GOP is very concerned with staying inside the Overton window. They’re pretty much a spent intellectual force at this point.

  62. @Boris
    Cool story. The current US murder rate is not far from the lows seen in the 1950s. (4.5 per 100k 2014 vs. 4.0/100k in 1957).

    So how many more bodies is a mere “0.5 per 100k” in a population nearly twice as large, or does that not matter, because you found an abstract number that allows you to feel content about the state of the world?

    • Replies: @Boris
    It's a lot. Murder rates were almost 1 per 100K higher when Obama became president, so I'm not sure what your point is.

    And of course murder rates were much higher in the 1920s and 1930s than now. It's a great time to be an American.
  63. @Mark F.
    He better switch to something else , anything, as it looks like he is going down bad. No candidate with a poll deficit 2 weeks after the last political convention has won the popular vote since 1952. (Gore lost the electoral vote, but won the popular vote). And Trump is down -9 in PA , a state he virtually must win.

    He better switch to something else , anything, as it looks like he is going down bad. No candidate with a poll deficit 2 weeks after the last political convention has won the popular vote since 1952. (Gore lost the electoral vote, but won the popular vote). And Trump is down -9 in PA , a state he virtually must win.

    Hey, look everyone! Mark thinks major media political polls are non-biased, and can’t possibly be rigged by poll creators, especially in this election where fair play is far more important than political affiliation!

  64. @Avenge Harambe
    Or perhaps, William F. Buckley and NR was a front organization to smoke out the traditional nationalist right.

    You can’t really say its a front organization when everyone knew that WF Buckley Jr* was a CIA asset.

    *There was another William Buckley in the CIA killed in Lebanon during the 80s.

  65. @Steve Sailer
    The outliers have all been on the Up side instead of the Down side. Most of the outliers have been cities like St. Louis, Baltimore, and Chicago targeted by Black Lives Matter and the Justice Department.

    Boston? -4, if my memory serves.

  66. @BenKenobi
    You've only had five beers by 3am?!

    Five Buds? Yeah, lame.

    Five St. Bernardus Abt 12 (11% ABV) 25 ouncers? Flat out drunk. Or just flat out.

  67. @Oleaginous Outrager
    So how many more bodies is a mere "0.5 per 100k" in a population nearly twice as large, or does that not matter, because you found an abstract number that allows you to feel content about the state of the world?

    It’s a lot. Murder rates were almost 1 per 100K higher when Obama became president, so I’m not sure what your point is.

    And of course murder rates were much higher in the 1920s and 1930s than now. It’s a great time to be an American.

  68. @Buffalo Joe
    Kansan, Buffalo had 37 recorded shootings last month, four of which were fatal. The Buffalo News, a way left paper owned by Warren Buffet, reported on the increase in shootings in a very concerned way, apparently the Kochs don't consult with Buffet. Cleveland, another small northeastern city similar to Buffalo, has become a war zone, with murders per 100k approaching Third World numbers, but I guess if the MSM and Obama and the Koch brothers say differently, who am I to argue.

    “Kansan, Buffalo had 37 recorded shootings last month, four of which were fatal. The Buffalo News, a way left paper owned by Warren Buffet, reported on the increase in shootings in a very concerned way, apparently the Kochs don’t consult with Buffet. Cleveland, another small northeastern city similar to Buffalo, has become a war zone, with murders per 100k approaching Third World numbers, but I guess if the MSM and Obama and the Koch brothers say differently, who am I to argue.”

    Cleveland is part of the Midwest, not the Northeast. It’s flyover country and nobody in Cleveland has funny sounding Northeast accents like Tony Danza, Andrew Dice Clay, Marisa Tomei, and Fran Drescher for example.

    Cleveland natives have generic Anywhereville American accents.

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