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From Vox:
The effects of Black Lives Matter protests
Research shows places with BLM protests from 2014 to 2019 saw a reduction in police homicides but an uptick in murders.
By Jerusalem Demsas @JerusalemDemsas Apr 9, 2021, 8:30am EDT
There’s long been a fierce debate about the effect of Black Lives Matter protests on the lethal use of force by police. A new study, one of the first to make a rigorous academic attempt to answer that question, found that the protests have had a notable impact on police killings. For every 4,000 people who participated in a Black Lives Matter protest between 2014 and 2019, police killed one less person.
Travis Campbell, a PhD student in economics at the University of Massachusetts Amherst, released his preliminary findings on the Social Science Research network as a preprint, meaning the study has yet to receive a formal peer review.
While Campbell’s research does not encompass the events of summer 2020, George Floyd’s killing and the subsequent wave of protests became potentially the largest movement in American history, the sudden growth of which relied on a wave of anger and grief at the police homicides Americans are continually greeted with on the news. Opinion columnists, activists, lawmakers, and even the president of the United States (current and former) have weighed in on these protests and what the appropriate policy changes should be. But first, it’s important to grapple with how the protests have already changed policing.
From 2014 to 2019, Campbell tracked more than 1,600 BLM protests across the country, largely in bigger cities, with nearly 350,000 protesters. His main finding is a 15 to 20 percent reduction in lethal use of force by police officers — roughly 300 fewer police homicides — in census places that saw BLM protests.
Campbell’s research also indicates that these protests correlate with a 10 percent increase in murders in the areas that saw BLM protests. That means from 2014 to 2019, there were somewhere between 1,000 and 6,000 more homicides than would have been expected if places with protests were on the same trend as places that did not have protests.
So call the most likely figure in that 1,000 to 6,000 range to be 3,000. Therefore, Black Lives Matter led to about 300 fewer killings by police and 3,000 more killings by criminals, meaning Black Lives Matter got an order of magnitude more people killed than it saved.
Heckuva job, BLMie!
Campbell’s research does not include the effects of last summer’s historic wave of protests because researchers do not yet have all the relevant data.
I’ve got the relevant data.
The main difference between the Ferguson Effect of the First Era of BLM of 2014-2019 and the Minneapolis Effect of the Second Era of BLM of May 25, 2020-? is that the Ferguson Effect tended to be more localized to where BLM triumphed politically (e.g., it emerged first in St. Louis after Michael Brown’s death, then in Baltimore in April 2015 after Freddie Gray’s death, then in the winter of 2015-2016 in Chicago after video of Laquan MacDonald’s death was released). In contrast, the Minneapolis Effect has been much more national and thus even larger.
… The good news is that even if Campbell’s finding about the increase in murders following BLM protests holds up to further scrutiny, the effect doesn’t appear to last for long. By year four, Campbell no longer observes a statistically significant increase in murders, indicating that whatever is going on with murders is hopefully not long term.
Yeah, what appears to have stopped the 22.9% rise in murders nationally in the last two years of the Obama Administration, was, after the Dallas and Baton Rouge BLM massacres of cops in July 2016, the election of Donald Trump and his selection of Jeff Sessions as Attorney General. Meanwhile, the Establishment chose to downplay BLM’s grievances after Dallas and Baton Rouge.
But then thinking that BLM was needed to beat Trump, the Establishment blasted BLM’s anti-white hate rhetoric via their Media Megaphone from May 2020 onward during the so-called Racial Reckoning that saw blacks shoot each other in very large numbers, and almost cost Joe Biden the election.
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‘…and almost cost Joe Biden the election.’
? What would have been so hard about manufacturing the necessary additional ballots?
Trump lost due to a revolt from the electorate. He got 10 million more votes than 2016. Some revolt.
Biden got more votes than every president in history (80M versus 65M for Clinton and Obama) (increased votes were mostly from New York and California, one party states). He received more votes than Obama and Clinton. Is he that popular? He didn't seem so in the primaries. He lost every one until the fix was in in North Carolina.
The Green Party was disenfranchised from most every state where they would be competitive. This was a shift in 5,000,000 votes from 2016.
Biden was so popular that his rallies were attended by no more than 1000 people
Trump was so unpopular that his rallies were attended by no less than 10,000. When the regional governors allowed them to happen.
But elections matter. Not when they are fixed. Stop participating in the fix!
Surprised to see this was published at Vox. Could it be a sign at least a few people on the left want to put the brakes on the woke crazies? May be jealously that activists are making big money giving banal lectures to globohomo while they suffer making mere low six figures salaries writing for Vox?
Keep an eye on the link. It may well vanish.Replies: @Steve Sailer
Uptick? Is that what they’re calling it now? Oh, I see, they stopped recording before FloydFest. Whew, that was close. Travis Campbell nearly lost his PhD.
No way anything except enforcing the law would stop Biden. He wasn’t elected, it was fraud. He got more votes than Obama? I got a bridge to sell you
Hate/disgust is more immediately motivating than love; it's possible that hate for Trump resulted in more Dem votes than did love for Obama.Replies: @Ghost of Bull Moose
“How do you respond to the charge that petty vandalism is down 80% while heavy sack beatings are up a shocking 900%?”
Dishonesty and cover-up are always the root cause of problems.
Covering up statistics of Black crime and individual cases of Black brutality. Making it taboo to give correct race realist explanations for race differences in shootings, killings, school discipline causes BLM’s “racism” explanations.
Covering up the Ferguson and Minneapolis effects!
Brainwashing citizens to believe that police killings are
a) unjustified and
b) 10 000 killings a year instead of 10(TEN) in 2020 USA
What is the murder rate per 100 000 per year in autonomous zones? Anyone calculated? A wild guess would be 2 murders in a 10 000 people zone, in 1 month, that is 20 per year for 10 000 or 200 per 100 000 per year. @isteve, can you do the math?
As well as an order of negritude.
BLM really saved Black lives? Amazing!
As usual, relevant information is intentionally omitted in order to mislead the public.
How many cops died or got seriously injured as a direct consequence of avoiding to shoot a murderous Black?
How many other bystanders and victims died or were injured as a direct consequence of not shooting a Black felon on rampage?
Is it permitted to weight an innocent victim’s life higher than the felon attackers’ life? Actually, the law does that and allows self defense or aiding others against attack.
Protecting innocent citizens actually used to be the police’s reason to exist, before BLM’s licence to burn, loot, beat up, and kill. Knowing that Black BLM and mostly white radical Antifa can beat up, threaten, burn and loot with impunity is terrible.
It makes people yearn for murderous, violent police in 3rd world countries who do not save felons to the detriment of citizens.
Blatantly misleading the naïve voter that George Floyd and Trayvon Martin were innocent good people slaughtered without justification, that causes riots. The media have blood on their hands for inciting civil unrest and insurrection through misinformation. Trump did not …
Trump lost plenty of old Whites to that old white Biden. Especially old White rust belt moderate men. Plenty of Hillary-dislikers among these (he man women hater club members, honestly). They only pulled the R lever once, and went right back to the Dem side in 2020.
Hate/disgust is more immediately motivating than love; it’s possible that hate for Trump resulted in more Dem votes than did love for Obama.
Every black killer whom the cops failed to kill went out and killed 10 people. Sounds about right.
As usual, relevant information is intentionally omitted in order to mislead the public.
How many cops died or got seriously injured as a direct consequence of avoiding to shoot a murderous Black?
How many other bystanders and victims died or were injured as a direct consequence of not shooting a Black felon on rampage?
Is it permitted to weight an innocent victim's life higher than the felon attackers' life? Actually, the law does that and allows self defense or aiding others against attack.
Protecting innocent citizens actually used to be the police's reason to exist, before BLM's licence to burn, loot, beat up, and kill. Knowing that Black BLM and mostly white radical Antifa can beat up, threaten, burn and loot with impunity is terrible.
It makes people yearn for murderous, violent police in 3rd world countries who do not save felons to the detriment of citizens.
Blatantly misleading the naïve voter that George Floyd and Trayvon Martin were innocent good people slaughtered without justification, that causes riots. The media have blood on their hands for inciting civil unrest and insurrection through misinformation. Trump did not ...Replies: @Abolish_public_education
Protecting innocent citizens actually used to be the police’s reason to exist ..
Aside from it being a slogan on the sides of LA police cruisers, where was this ever the case?
The job of the cops is to bring in guys (hopefully alive) accused of serious wrongdoing.
The job of protection is a duty of individual citizens (or their private bodyguards, militia, etc.). Thus, #2.
They’re finally realizing that taking away the police will make their gentrified neighborhoods unsafe.
Why would vox even publish this?
The ‘Agree’ & ‘Thanks’ tabs were ghosted, but….you know. Never stop reminding ’em that 2 + 2 is still 4, no matter what Harvard & Yale insist.
“…and almost cost Joe Biden the election.”
For service to Literature, the Royal Norwegian Committee For Nobel Awards is delighted to…
Hate/disgust is more immediately motivating than love; it's possible that hate for Trump resulted in more Dem votes than did love for Obama.Replies: @Ghost of Bull Moose
People didn’t vote against Hillary because they hate women. They voted against Hillary because she hates people. She found the whole process of persuading her fellow citizens to vote for her to be beneath her.
Lol, wait’ll they run the numbers on how many years of life the Covid Lockdown confiscated vs. saved!
The monster Trump is banished and the Democrats are safely in control of everything permanently. They no longer need to “Cry ‘Havoc!’ and let slip the nogs of war.”
? What would have been so hard about manufacturing the necessary additional ballots?Replies: @mousey
Exactly!
Trump lost due to a revolt from the electorate. He got 10 million more votes than 2016. Some revolt.
Biden got more votes than every president in history (80M versus 65M for Clinton and Obama) (increased votes were mostly from New York and California, one party states). He received more votes than Obama and Clinton. Is he that popular? He didn’t seem so in the primaries. He lost every one until the fix was in in North Carolina.
The Green Party was disenfranchised from most every state where they would be competitive. This was a shift in 5,000,000 votes from 2016.
Biden was so popular that his rallies were attended by no more than 1000 people
Trump was so unpopular that his rallies were attended by no less than 10,000. When the regional governors allowed them to happen.
But elections matter. Not when they are fixed. Stop participating in the fix!
By the way, Patrisse Khan-Cullors, the marxist founder of BLM, hasn’t just recently bought one house for $1.4 million, she’s been on a multi-million dollar home buying spree:
https://nypost.com/2021/04/10/inside-blm-co-founder-patrisse-khan-cullors-real-estate-buying-binge/
This marxism thing sounds like a pretty good racket.
Covering up statistics of Black crime and individual cases of Black brutality. Making it taboo to give correct race realist explanations for race differences in shootings, killings, school discipline causes BLM's "racism" explanations.
Covering up the Ferguson and Minneapolis effects!
Brainwashing citizens to believe that police killings are
a) unjustified and
b) 10 000 killings a year instead of 10(TEN) in 2020 USA
What is the murder rate per 100 000 per year in autonomous zones? Anyone calculated? A wild guess would be 2 murders in a 10 000 people zone, in 1 month, that is 20 per year for 10 000 or 200 per 100 000 per year. @isteve, can you do the math?Replies: @Almost Missouri
Before math, you need accurate numbers. There is no real consensus on the number of “police killings” per year, nor on the number that are “unjustified”. The data are even worse for “BLM protests”. So both sides of the equation have very arguable figures. The study that Vox cites gamely tries to overcome this, but you can read it for yourself to decide if they succeed.
Some observations:
• The databases on “police killings” in the US typically seem to level out at around 1000/year while casting a very wide and very fine net.
• If you look at the actual data, you will quickly notice that a huge number of the incidents are not what you probably imagine from the phrase “police killing”. Example: a police officer is off duty at home in a domestic dispute with his wife. He kills her then commits suicide. Is that 0, 1 or 2 “police killings”? Or: suspect is fleeing scene in a vehicle with police in pursuit. Suspect crashes into a bystander killing both himself and the bystander. Is that 0, 1 or 2 “police killings”? These are both actual items from police killing databases. YMMV
• What most people think of as “police killings”: suspect posing no apparent threat to officer is killed anyway, are in fact exceedingly rare, and when they occur are more likely white than black. Steve has commented on how the BLM heroes (George Floyd, Trayvon Martin, Micheal Brown) so often turn out to be scumbags on closer scrutiny (which scrutiny the “news media” seeks to prevent). I think Steve has wondered if the people creating these BLM narratives are incompetent or are actively seeking to cram down unsympathetic characters on the public narrative as a exercise in power. The answer may be more prosaic. Riffling through the databases, it is pretty hard to find cases where the suspect is unarmed, dies solely through police action, there are no extenuating circumstances, and is the “right” color. So given the scarcity of ideal victims, the narrative-crafters in the major media just jump on any halfway promising story and rely on the power of the Megaphone to drown out inconvenient information.
• I’m suspicious of any study that requires complex calculus to reach a conclusion that should be obtainable with eighth-grade fractions and ratios.
BLM is an anti-white terrorist group.
> What most people think of as “police killings”: suspect posing no apparent threat to officer is killed anyway, are in fact exceedingly rare
A bit OT, but the same phenomenon is at play in the Upper Class Media ballyhoo of The Epidemic of Hate-Crime Murders of Transgendered Individuals. At his blog, Rod Dreher looked at accounts of each of the 30 or so cases that the UCM was highlighting. 80% – 90% of them turned out to be a parade of Expected Bad Outcomes to Dreary Fights: domestic dispute, pimp/hooker, hooker/john, thief/mark, thief/thief, addict/dealer, or mentally-ill/mentally-ill.
A short list of MSM Information Laundering Operations includes:
• The "police killings" hysteria
• The "Epidemic of Hate-Crime Murders of Transgendered Individuals"
• The "epidemic of anti-Asian hate crimes"
• Antisemitic hate crimes (special shout out to the Israeli teen who clocked up over a thousand antisemitic "hate crimes" singlehandedly)
• The 1/6/2021 "deadly insurrection" that "killed five".
• "Covid is surging!" Covid is always surging somewhere somehow.
• The history of lynching.
Can you think of others?Replies: @Almost Missouri
Statistics show police killings of unarmed blacks is vanishingly rare. Not a significant problem in reality. The main problem regarding violence in black areas is drug-related gang violence. Solving that involves breaking international cartels that are interwoven into government agencies including within the US. Such networks smuggle drugs, people, and guns so banning our guns will be entirely ineffective at reducing violence. And they know this so the agenda of banning guns is unrelated to actually reducing street violence.
Agree. A lot of what the media do is actually a kind of information laundering. They claim to have data supporting a particular Narrative-compliant conclusion, but if you manage to see the actual data, at best the support for the purported conclusion is only vague. It’s like the information equivalent of junky mortgage-backed securities in the 2008 crash. And then when journalists go and make all kinds of elaborations based on the crappy data, it’s like the CDOs and other toxic derivatives. So mostly they hope you’ll never scrutinize the data too closely, and usually no one does. They want to preserve the market bubble is false conclusions as long as they can.
A short list of MSM Information Laundering Operations includes:
• The “police killings” hysteria
• The “Epidemic of Hate-Crime Murders of Transgendered Individuals”
• The “epidemic of anti-Asian hate crimes”
• Antisemitic hate crimes (special shout out to the Israeli teen who clocked up over a thousand antisemitic “hate crimes” singlehandedly)
• The 1/6/2021 “deadly insurrection” that “killed five”.
• “Covid is surging!” Covid is always surging somewhere somehow.
• The history of lynching.
Can you think of others?
• "Russian hacking"Replies: @ic1000
A short list of MSM Information Laundering Operations includes:
• The "police killings" hysteria
• The "Epidemic of Hate-Crime Murders of Transgendered Individuals"
• The "epidemic of anti-Asian hate crimes"
• Antisemitic hate crimes (special shout out to the Israeli teen who clocked up over a thousand antisemitic "hate crimes" singlehandedly)
• The 1/6/2021 "deadly insurrection" that "killed five".
• "Covid is surging!" Covid is always surging somewhere somehow.
• The history of lynching.
Can you think of others?Replies: @Almost Missouri
• “White supremacist terrorism” incidents
• “Russian hacking”
Back to @extrashaky: "BLM/Antifa specifically excluded: 'That definition excludes many violent events, including incidents during nationwide unrest last year, because CSIS analysts could not determine whether attackers had a political or ideological motive.'"Replies: @Steve Sailer
https://www.thegatewaypundit.com/2021/04/marxist-black-lives-matter-founder-didnt-just-buy-million-dollar-compound-bought-four-high-end-homes-complete-airplane-hangars/?ff_source=Twitter&ff_medium=PostTopSharingButtons&ff_campaign=websitesharingbuttons
See what’s on her shirt? Free21Savage. Have you looked that one up? Go check out the Brit rapper’s lyrics and see what he stands for. See if you can stand his “music” for even a moment.
Vox, like The Atlantic, will very occasionally print an article that doesn’t completely fit the narrative. I’ve been wondering why for some time. Is it so they can pretend they’re balanced instead of biased to all heck? Is it a sop to retain the few subscribers who aren’t fervently woke? Did a conscience-stricken writer manage to slip one past the editor when he wasn’t looking?
Keep an eye on the link. It may well vanish.
Keep an eye on the link. It may well vanish.Replies: @Steve Sailer
Vox’s crime stats reporter German Lopez slowly got redpilled about the Ferguson Effect.
• "Russian hacking"Replies: @ic1000
Hot off the WaPo presses, via Twitter user ‘@extrashaky’:
Super-scary graph showing right-wing terrorists blanketing the country, left-wing terrorism almost non-existent since 2005.
Back to @extrashaky: “BLM/Antifa specifically excluded: ‘That definition excludes many violent events, including incidents during nationwide unrest last year, because CSIS analysts could not determine whether attackers had a political or ideological motive.’”
Back to @extrashaky: "BLM/Antifa specifically excluded: 'That definition excludes many violent events, including incidents during nationwide unrest last year, because CSIS analysts could not determine whether attackers had a political or ideological motive.'"Replies: @Steve Sailer
Thanks.