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USC Antibody Test of 863 Representative People in L.A. County Finds 4.1% Infected, Far from Herd Immunity
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Now USC has done an antibody test on 863 supposedly randomly representative individuals in Los Angeles County and come up with a best guess infection rate of 4.1%. This has most of the methodological problems associated with last week’s Stanford report that came up with a 3.1% best guess in Santa Clara County (Palo Alto and San Jose).

The leader of the new USC study, Neerad Sood, was a co-author on last Friday’s Stanford study. Here is stats professor Andrew Gelman’s critique of the Stanford study.

But, still … it’s another data point, which is helpful, and it fits in nicely with the Stanford result, because previously available evidence suggested LA County is somewhat harder hit than Santa Clara County. Both the Stanford and USC studies strike me as sounding about right: single digit infection percentages is what I would have guessed ahead of time rather than zero digit or double digit infection rates.

From the Los Angeles Times:

Hundreds of thousands in L.A. County may have been infected with coronavirus, study finds

By MELANIE MASON STAFF WRITER
APRIL 20, 20201:12 PM UPDATED 2:29 PM

Hundreds of thousands of Los Angeles County residents may have been infected with the coronavirus by early April, far outpacing the number of officially confirmed cases, according to a report released Monday.

The initial results from the first large-scale study tracking the spread of the coronavirus in the county found that 2.8% to 5.6% of adults have antibodies to the virus in their blood, an indication of past exposure.

That translates to roughly 221,000 to 442,000 adults who have recovered from an infection, according to the researchers conducting the study, even though the county had reported fewer than 8,000 cases at that time.

For a long time, L.A. was one of the worst places in the country to try to get a coronavirus test if you weren’t a LeBron James level celebrity. So it was always known the L.A. County’s ten million people are undercounted badly for infections. (The current official number of cumulative CV cases in L.A. County is 13,823.)

On the other hand, Los Angeles’s death totals, while worse than in most of the rest of California, and its strain on hospitals haven’t been that bad by New York standards. L.A. County has 619 official CV deaths through today for 10 million people. (But the number of deaths keeps rising pretty fast, with a new record of 81 on last Saturday alone.) In general, while Northern California gives the impression of being largely out of the woods, Los Angeles does not. Things might still get bad.

In contrast, Santa Clara County (Silicon Valley) has had 83 CV deaths cumulative for almost 2 million people, so the death rate per capita in L.A. County is about 50% higher than in Santa Clara County, but much less awful than in the NYC area. So the notion that the LA infection percentage is about 30% higher than the SC percentage sounds … not implausible.

So LA currently has had 619 deaths and if it had, say, 325,000 infections by whatever the date of testing in early April was, that could be an Infection Fatality Rate of 0.2% (so far). This is in a pretty good situation for medical care with hospitals being far from overwhelmed and with doctors having access to the learning done by doctors in China, Italy, and New York.

The findings suggest the coronavirus is far more widespread than originally known, and that its fatality rate is much lower. But Sood cautioned against solely focusing on how lethal the disease is.

The early results from L.A. County come three days after Stanford researchers reported that the coronavirus appears to have circulated much more widely in Santa Clara County than previously thought.

The Stanford team estimated that 2.5% to 4.2% of Santa Clara County residents had antibodies to the coronavirus in their blood by early April.

Though the county had reported roughly 1,000 cases in early April, the Stanford researchers estimate the actual number was 48,000 to 81,000, or 50 to 85 times greater.

The Santa Clara study recruited around 3,300 participants from social media, which has raised some concerns that the results may not be representative of the county as a whole. The researchers made adjustments to their data to account for that problem.

The study was composed differently in Los Angeles; 863 adults were selected through a market research firm to represent the makeup of the county. The county and USC researchers intend to repeat the study every two to three weeks for several months, in order to track the trajectory of the virus’ spread.

Of course, the problem with USC’s sample of 863 is that it’s tiny for measuring something that appears to be in single digits. I haven’t found their paper yet online, but if 4.1% of 863 were positive, that’s only 35 positives, which is pretty tenuous. But better than nothing.

Both counties used rapid antibody tests supplied from Premier Biotech, a Minneapolis-based company.

A sizable problem is that there is no single Gold Standard test for coronavirus, so every test tries to validate itself against other tests that also have problems with false positives and false negatives. This isn’t an impossible problem to get around over time, but it should be kept in mind. As many critics of the Stanford study have pointed out, low incidence studies are kind of held hostage to the unknowns of false positives.

… Nevertheless, antibody tests have increasingly become a focal point in the response to coronavirus because they can potentially show the true extent of the virus’ reach and therefore can shed light on how close the population is to achieving herd immunity, in which enough people have some degree of immunity to the virus that it becomes difficult for infections to spread.

4.1% is a long way from herd immunity, which is usually thought to kick in somewhere over 50%.

 
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  1. Right now, population is divided into two more or less distinct parts: X% who stay in lockdown and 1-X% who can’t or won’t. The question is, at what point these 1-X% gain herd immunity? For all we know, 4.1% of the total population may well do it.

  2. You’d think the takeaway here would be how ridiculous the response is relative to the infection rate, not how far we are from herd immunity.

    I really hope Steve isn’t going to lose too much credibility over all this…

    • Replies: @Corvinus
    Not ridiculous in the least as far as the social distancing and other measures put in place.

    And, no, Mr. Sailer in this particular case is not going to lose credibility over saying how Covid-19 is real, and not a media created or globalist created hoax.

    Speaking of a lack of credibility, Trump should just admit he f---- up. But he can't, he's a narcissist.

    https://www.forbes.com/sites/lisettevoytko/2020/04/19/report-americans-at-world-health-organization-told-trump-administration-about-coronavirus-late-last-year/amp/?__twitter_impression=true
    , @Corvinus
    Not ridiculous in the least as far as the social distancing and other measures put in place.

    And, no, Mr. Sailer in this particular case is not going to lose credibility over saying how Covid-19 is real, and not a media created or globalist created hoax.

    Speaking of a lack of credibility, Trump should just admit he f---- up. But he can't, he's a narcissist.

    https://www.forbes.com/sites/lisettevoytko/2020/04/19/report-americans-at-world-health-organization-told-trump-administration-about-coronavirus-late-last-year/#56f0900da548
    , @Je Suis Omar Mateen
    "I really hope Steve isn’t going to lose too much credibility over all this…"

    He lost all credibility. He joins Lion of the Blog as a mindless effeminate hysteric I read only to affirm my superiority. The chemotherapy back in the 1990s likely decimated Steve's testosterone and brain function.

    , @XYZ (no Mr.)
    40,000+ Americans are dead in a month from a single infectious cause (or at least helped along by it), so it's nothing to sneeze at... literally. My takeaway is not that it doesn't spread very fast and kill, just that it's not very deadly to most people who catch it. I am wondering that if these tests had been done earlier, would the powers that be have released the info so quickly? It would have been even harder to justify shelter orders if the vast majority of the population wasn't afraid. But there should be a New York study soon. I will very curious what the effect of public transportation was.
    , @journey80
    You'd think the takeaway might be that maybe most of the people on the planet sure do have coronavirus in their bodies from a lifetime of regular-guy colds, seasonal flus (naturally occurring, not created in a biowarfare lab), and sniffles. Coronavirus is a broad category: a family of familiar and non-deadly viruses normally occurring in the bodies of all the people on the planet. Please note that, increasingly, mention of this dread pandemic is now "coronavirus": the question I'm still waiting to hear asked and answered is what EXACTLY do the tests test for, and what EXACTLY do the antibodies protect against?
    Another question: how accurate are all these tests? Who says so? where is the credible proof of their accuracy?
    Another question: A test, if it were accurate, which it's not, and if it actually tested for "COVID-19", which it doesn't, is a one-day snapshot, only useful when someone with symptoms is admitted to a hospital.
    The latest flurry of useless running around in circles over testing is at best a distraction and at worst a means of extending and magnifying the panic and allowing the CDC to go into every state and set up "contact tracing" teams - another in the steady erosion of privacy we are being trained to appreciate.
    , @Anonymousse
    It’s funny that he can look at data cooly on an explosive area like black average IQ but on this virus thing he’s completely indistinguishable from a wine aunt posting #STAYTHEF*#%HOME on facebook.

    Worse maybe, because he’s numerate and smart enough to understand the implications here AND he’s aware of the evidence... but he’s still every bit as committed to the hysterical and counterfactual narrative as your average Rachel Maddow viewer.

    Could be his own past health issues or possibly just the universal human need to avoid admitting past error?

    In any case that just won’t cut it... the DAILY price of continuing to play along and wink at this hysteria almost defies comprehension. No one gets a pass on being unserious about this thing anymore.
  3. USC Antibody Test of 863 Representative People in L.A. County Finds 4.1% Infected. Death Rate Far from High.

    FIFY

    • Agree: Hail
  4. How will people be exposed to Covid or anything else during the lock down? Is herd immunity possible with the lock down? It seems like the people that demanded and got a lock down have lost the plot.

    The Swedes might have the right plan for ‘flattening the curve’ in a manner that might eventually end up with herd immunity, assuming immunity is possible and permanent.

    • Replies: @Lagertha
    This is the first time, Sweden has actually shown some balls since 1808!, finally!

    Many people in The North, are immune to a lot of viruses because they have lived in The North since 12,000 BC. There would be no cities/towns/settlements in Scandinavia and Russia/Siberia if people had not developed immunity - don't forget: there were no cities in Greenland and northern North America at the same time as the "old world."

    Of course, at this point, there's some speculation that the Covid-19 is an unnatural virus/man-made/lab manipulated...and there is chattering all over the world about this. Cat's outta the bag! Every young person, at home, is investigating who, what group, what consortium did this. Young people are furious, and they want revenge. Revenge leads to a semblance of relief...relief that bad people can not do this to humanity, and, on a micro-level, to destroy the future of Millennials and Z, and destroy their parents' jobs/lives/future - people want retribution!

    All I can say is: young people will hate, hate, hate Boomers & Gen Xrs more than ever. These creepy/duplicitous people have ruined the future for Millennials and Gen Z, world-wide. Hate is in the air, and this time, young people are gonna revolt.

    The 60's bs young people were weak, messed-up, degenerate, narcissistic, drug addled (now Hep C creeps) losers...the New young people will get stealth and "take no prisoners." And, I think that is wholly appropriate because they have been lied to for so many decades that people in power are good...and not the psychopaths that they are. And, they are especially angry, and on a war path, because their Bernie checked out. They have no one, absolutely no one, that they believe deserves their respect. Of course, kids on the Trump Train will be fine, but Bernie kids are angry and cynical.

    , @James Speaks

    The Swedes might have the right plan for ‘flattening the curve’ in a manner that might eventually end up with herd immunity,
     
    Can't be sure if the Swedish approach is good until we know a) whether immunity lasts more than a few months and b) whether coronavirus-19 permanently damages lungs, heart, kidneys, liver, soles of feet, blood, brain ...
    , @leterip
    Herd immunity was always the only possible end point for this virus for western societies. It is just a matter of how chaotic and damaging the process will be to get there. Hopefully, the IFR is low, but even if it say 1% strict lockdowns still make no sense. There is simply no workable exit strategy to strict lockdowns. The economic and related social damage is just too great to extend or periodically repeat severe social distancing. The Swedish/Japan approach of trying very hard to isolate the vulnerable, and only implementing social distancing to the extent it was sustainable, was the only approach that ever made sense. Their approach will turn out really good if the IFR is low. Their approach will turn out much less good if the IFR is high, but will still be the better than the alternatives.
    , @Old and Grumpy
    I don't get how you can have a flattening of the curve if we are all hiding in our sealed up homes. Don't you have to be exposed to it, and hope to have many us develop an immunity for the curve to flatten? It will be interesting to see if Sweden does get a flatten curve, and if their decision will lead to no second infection rate like we are going to see.
  5. How many false positives/false negatives does the test produce? That is really important.

    If there is a sytematic error, than a larger sample won’t fix it.

    • Replies: @Polynikes
    Since this was the same test, it’d be interesting to know if the similar studies in Kansas City and Cincy used the same test out different ones. They were both at about 4%.

    On the other hand, those rates are actually kind of low, comparatively. I think the NY pregnant lady sample had a 15% infection rate and the Boston homeless rate was an astounding 30%. (I’m taking these from news reports, I didn’t actually read the study, for full disclosure). None the less, those rates are much more in line with what we observed in princess and Roosevelt ships.
  6. Why do you keep focusing on herd immunity? Infectious rates slow way down well before herd immunity is reached. The Spanish flu only achieved around 25-30 percent before burning out. There has never been a disease in history that goes at rates you are talking about.

    • Replies: @Inquiring Mind
    By what mechanism do epidemics burn out before herd immunity?

    Not saying you are wrong, just asking?
  7. @anon
    You'd think the takeaway here would be how ridiculous the response is relative to the infection rate, not how far we are from herd immunity.

    I really hope Steve isn't going to lose too much credibility over all this...

    Not ridiculous in the least as far as the social distancing and other measures put in place.

    And, no, Mr. Sailer in this particular case is not going to lose credibility over saying how Covid-19 is real, and not a media created or globalist created hoax.

    Speaking of a lack of credibility, Trump should just admit he f—- up. But he can’t, he’s a narcissist.

    https://www.forbes.com/sites/lisettevoytko/2020/04/19/report-americans-at-world-health-organization-told-trump-administration-about-coronavirus-late-last-year/amp/?__twitter_impression=true

    • Agree: Morris Applebaum IV
    • Troll: Anonymousse
    • Replies: @Spud Boy
    "Trump should just admit he f—- up"

    Monday morning quarterbacking in the 2nd quarter of the game.
  8. @anon
    You'd think the takeaway here would be how ridiculous the response is relative to the infection rate, not how far we are from herd immunity.

    I really hope Steve isn't going to lose too much credibility over all this...

    Not ridiculous in the least as far as the social distancing and other measures put in place.

    And, no, Mr. Sailer in this particular case is not going to lose credibility over saying how Covid-19 is real, and not a media created or globalist created hoax.

    Speaking of a lack of credibility, Trump should just admit he f—- up. But he can’t, he’s a narcissist.

    https://www.forbes.com/sites/lisettevoytko/2020/04/19/report-americans-at-world-health-organization-told-trump-administration-about-coronavirus-late-last-year/#56f0900da548

    • Replies: @Mr. Anon

    Speaking of a lack of credibility,.............
     
    Says the man with none.

    Lack of credibility is implied with the intro "Corvinus says"
  9. In NYC 25% of the population probably had CV 4 weeks ago. If the Fatality rate in NY is .5% then the New York Metro area had 3.6 million infected 4 weeks ago when the governor gave the stay at home order. The number of cases must have crossed 7 million last week in the NY Metro area.

    Is NYC near heard immunity ? The New York Metro area must be Over 50% infected by now. Hopefully the antibodies will provide immunity for the millions who have recovered.

  10. @anon
    You'd think the takeaway here would be how ridiculous the response is relative to the infection rate, not how far we are from herd immunity.

    I really hope Steve isn't going to lose too much credibility over all this...

    “I really hope Steve isn’t going to lose too much credibility over all this…”

    He lost all credibility. He joins Lion of the Blog as a mindless effeminate hysteric I read only to affirm my superiority. The chemotherapy back in the 1990s likely decimated Steve’s testosterone and brain function.

    • Replies: @Anonymous

    The chemotherapy back in the 1990s likely decimated Steve’s testosterone and brain function.
     
    And your uncle, back in the seventies, standing in your bedroom doorway at 3 in the morning waving his penis, likely eroded your sense of propriety beyond servicing.
    , @anon
    JSOM, Is this you? https://www.dailymail.co.uk/news/article-8239557/Ohio-man-60-blasted-COVID-19-lockdown-political-ploy-dies-contracting-coronavirus.html
  11. @Corvinus
    Not ridiculous in the least as far as the social distancing and other measures put in place.

    And, no, Mr. Sailer in this particular case is not going to lose credibility over saying how Covid-19 is real, and not a media created or globalist created hoax.

    Speaking of a lack of credibility, Trump should just admit he f---- up. But he can't, he's a narcissist.

    https://www.forbes.com/sites/lisettevoytko/2020/04/19/report-americans-at-world-health-organization-told-trump-administration-about-coronavirus-late-last-year/amp/?__twitter_impression=true

    “Trump should just admit he f—- up”

    Monday morning quarterbacking in the 2nd quarter of the game.

    • Agree: Redneck farmer
  12. Anonymous[405] • Disclaimer says:

    Talk of Herd Immunity is a distraction. Talk of a vaccine is noise. The only sure defense is to be healthy – to have good lungs and good circulation. Have that and if, by chance, you get a bad infection, you have a good chance of surviving.

    And you don’t have to be all that healthy to survive! Learned today an old lady I know who has been “sick” longer than I can remember, and who bounces between low budget nursing homes, she got Covid, was hospitalized and is now “better”.

    Ok, who exactly is dying of this virus?

    Covid-19 will be the virus story the next year or so. Then the hype for another bug will start. And in ten years or so that next big one will hit. In the interim people will still be dying of “bugs”. A lot of people. Will we care if the bug is not Covid-19? Or does only it get its own counter?

    I would say this was peak social hysteria. But it’s not yet November and Trump hasn’t been reelected.

    • Replies: @Travis

    who exactly is dying of this virus?
     
    good question. Here in NJ 40% of the deaths are among elderly nursing home residents. In New York 30% of the deaths are among elderly nursing home residents. Half the coronavirus deaths in Pennsylvania are in nursing homes and long-term care facilities. https://www.post-gazette.com/news/health/2020/04/15/COVID-19-coronavirus-Allegheny-County-Pennsylvania-cases-deaths-data/stories/202004150100
    , @BenKenobi
    I preferred the before-time, the long-long-ago. When the only Corona-denier was the bartender cutting me off.
    , @Simon Tugmutton

    who exactly is dying of this virus?
     
    The risk factors seem to be:

    1. Poor general health (especially in people with "metabolic syndrome", i.e. type 2 diabetes, obesity, cardiovascular disease, all these being associated with a high-sugar diet)

    2. Sex (males account for over 60% of deaths)

    3. Advanced age

    4. Skin colour (the darker your skin the more susceptible you are)

    5. City-dwelling, especially if you use public transport

    6. Finally, there seem to be fewer cases in lower latitudes.

    All of these are indicators of reduced immune function, some of which is obviously due to insufficiency of vitamin D, which has been shown to be important in mitigating or preventing acute respiratory distress syndrome (ARDS). When people die from Covid-19, they are dying from coronavirus-induced ARDS.

    Moral: eat good food, exercise in the sun, live in the country, do a reverse Rachael Dolzeal, and, if you are a toxic male, transition at once to get ahold of the second X chromosome that does such wonders for the immune system of the fair sex!
  13. • Replies: @Anon
    Yeah, you'd think they'd send the kids off for some nasal swabs. The kids are not infected until the virus is detected.
    , @reactionry
    [please forgive errors in English and Latin grammar]

    Let The Bad Times Roll?

    If the condition of those toes is linked to COVID-19, the phenomenon seems worrisome. Might some children also be suffering from "silent" tiny brain infarcts - perhaps with long-term sequelae? Some events in adults attributed to ordinary strokes and/or heart attacks have likely been due to SARS-CoV-2 infections (a lot of clots). Interestingly, the link mentions lupus (as, of course, in Hydroxychloroquine).


    "Covid toes" should remind some of a pediatric disease which affects medium sized arteries and which also has dermatologic manifestations. You've already been given one clue.* Here's an eponymous one: Notwithstanding the name, helmets of this much-protected generation should provide absolutely no immunity.
    (sorry if that was too easy)


    * The Cars might jar memories of a jingle:
    https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=7BDBzgHXf64

    Also see: "Thumbs up"? for treatment of an amputated pollex via transplanted hallux rigidus

    lupus erythema -toes -us?

    , @Bill P
    I suspect I may have been infected because I had similar lesions starting about a month ago. One is still visible, but mostly healed. I've never had anything like them before. They are small, red, mildly raised welt-like patches that sting a little bit. According to the French they can occur anywhere on the body.

    I also had slightly swollen glands in my throat and a bout of headaches (which are rare for me) at the same time, but whatever it was was very mild and unaccompanied by fever, so I assumed it couldn't be coronavirus. However, after seeing the articles tying these lesions to the infection, I'm not so sure anymore.
  14. Anonymous[186] • Disclaimer says:

    No visible means of support
    And you have not seen nothin’ yet
    Everything’s stuck together
    And I don’t know what you expect
    Staring into the TV set
    Fighting fire with fire

  15. Herd immunity is faster from 4% than initial infection to 4%.

    0.2% early on is a good sign. It means that IFR will probably not go higher than that.

    The virus is already widespread in my community. It went through the grocery store employees already, so I’ve shifted to carrying on as before because there’s no avoiding it. I can’t lockdown because I have kids and keeping them locked up would be unconscionable given the fact that they are essentially safe.

    If it gets me it gets me. I like my chances, but I’d rather not go through it if I haven’t had it already, which I may well have by now.

    BTW, this fear of death among those who have already had a lot of life is unseemly. I don’t really care how that sounds, because when I see what we’re asking of the young it’s pretty clear that this lockdown is an enormous burden, and we all die eventually.

    • Agree: Luke Lea, LondonBob
    • Replies: @moshe
    The Generational Moods


    ✓ Over 75 = "Eh? Sounds dangerous and maybe this'll be The Big One but I already know santa is fake and I aint afraid of no ghost"

    X 55-75 = "NO! When I was young I was assured that if not for the Cold War science would solve death! Or at least that we'd all live till over 110! I'M TOO YOUNG TO DIE! These punk millennials have been writing excitedly about my upcoming death because I'm supposedly racist? And they even dare laugh me down with their 'Okay Boomer' mockery from their circle jerk safe spaces? Go to your rooms! This is MY time for a safe space."

    $£¥ 40-55 = "Eh? Sounds dangerous. Besides, uh, well this is all kinna confusing and I'm too old to be radical so I guess I'll go along with the prevailing wisdom and guidelines, but methinks the boomers are acting a little embarassing for their age."

    @ 30 - 40 = "Men. This is what we've been training for. We knew this day would come. Whether it's information repeating, doomsday prepping or begging to be allowed to stay home until the dragon is vanquished, we are at one with our computer screens and we will fight and kill and many of us shall die in this brave battle like our grandparents did during World War Two.

    !!! 15-30 = "Brought to you by Carl's Jr. Brought to you by Carl's Jr. BROUGHT TO YOU BY CARL'S JR!"

    ?¿? 0- 15 = "Well this is different than when I was just a child way back last year. And kind of scary! Just another thing to throw into the complex algebra of dealing with teething, zits and family. I wonder if this is forever? Mom? Is this...eh, she's not going to give me a syraight answer. Heck, none of the adults told me last year that THIS was even coming!"

    , @Anon
    It's not the fear of death that motivates Boomers to shut down the economy and basically impoverish younger generations (which they have already been doing for the past two decades, anyway). Everyone gets old and becomes aware of their own mortality. Rather, it's the fear that the Boomer generation -- and its cultural legacy -- will be abruptly relegated to the trash heap, once they are the only group peering out the blinds on sunny days.

    The rational approach is to quarantine at-risk populations and have government accommodate them. But that means no more geriatric country clubs, no more symphony galas, no more business/legal/academic conferences, where the average age is 55+. Hyper affluent boomer communities -- like Martha's Vineyard, Brentwood or Marin County -- basically become shut-in communities

    It's not the fear of death. It's the fear of permanent irrelevance.

  16. each day brings more good news from California. This study confirms the lower fatality rate for COVID 19 we have been observing in Germany and Boston

    While California may be a few weeks away from “heard” immunity , it appears that 50% of the population is already immune and will not even show any symptoms after catching this coronavirus. more and more studies confirm that most people with antibodies did not even get a cold. Many probably fought the virus without even creating any antibodies.

    This confirms the Santa Clara study results, showing that there is little need to wait for heard immunity if so few people will get sick from this virus. Even the homeless in Boston were immune to COVID 19 , despite having no access to free vitamin D from the sun in frigid Massachusetts.

    • Replies: @Black-hole creator
    "each day brings more good news from California..."

    You mean unemployment in LA is still only 50% ? Awesome, let's shoot for 90%. I am all for caution and research, but this looks more and more like a major overreaction.

    People and individual businesses should be given a choice: if you are willing to risk a 0.05% chance to die, you can go ahead and resume working; if not, well, you can stay home but you have to pay for it, no more free lunch - sell your stuff if you need money or forage for food at a nearest dumpster at midnight to avoid any human contact. I admire folks in some places who have the balls to protest this nonsense. Unfortunately, this is not enough and the economy is doomed. Say hello to a major inflation and dollar devaluation in near future. Ironically, the seniors will be hit hardest - their savings and pensions will not go nearly as far as they do now.
  17. The way to reduce the false positive problem — and, for that matter, any false negative problem — is to do random representative testing in a major hot spot, like NYC. All the numbers coming out of such a study will be more reliable because of the high proportion of infections, cases, and deaths.

    It’s almost dumb to conduct them elsewhere when this is so obviously the right way to go.

  18. Why is “female” relevant in this headline?

    Trump berates a female reporter after she pressed him on why he didn’t warn Americans about the coronavirus crisis sooner

    Doesn’t that go against what the Rosalie Maggios of the land have been preaching to us for the last 40-50 years?

    That’s like Rick Lazio “threatening” Hillary Clinton by walking a piece of paper over to her during a debate.

  19. @anon
    You'd think the takeaway here would be how ridiculous the response is relative to the infection rate, not how far we are from herd immunity.

    I really hope Steve isn't going to lose too much credibility over all this...

    40,000+ Americans are dead in a month from a single infectious cause (or at least helped along by it), so it’s nothing to sneeze at… literally. My takeaway is not that it doesn’t spread very fast and kill, just that it’s not very deadly to most people who catch it. I am wondering that if these tests had been done earlier, would the powers that be have released the info so quickly? It would have been even harder to justify shelter orders if the vast majority of the population wasn’t afraid. But there should be a New York study soon. I will very curious what the effect of public transportation was.

  20. One question I’ve been wondering about is who’s getting Covid these days, under the lockdown? Isn’t that a critical piece of the puzzle here?

    I’m guessing it’s dominated by those in essential services, those who live in packed households, and of course institutions for the elderly.

    Why don’t we get a breakdown?

    We really need to know where distancing works, and where it doesn’t, if we’re going to get a handle on how to move forward.

    • Agree: res
  21. So, for a simpleminded analysis, is it sensible to say, the eventual death toll in L.A. County will be 619/0.041 = 15,098? (when the infection reaches everyone). If so, that is a pretty major statistic. If one grossly oversimplifies and extrapolates these numbers to the entire U.S., this may look like 15098*32.8 = 495,214 deaths. Much larger than the 200,000 or 100,000 or 60,000 predicted by the model.

    • Replies: @Steve Sailer
    Hopefully, we will get better at treating infected people with time and learning. Also, not likely to spread to 100% before herd immunity reduces spread. So if it peters out at 67% infected, maybe 300+K by this math?

    Also, I don't know if they tested kids. So maybe you can leave out the fifth or so of the population who is under 18, since they rarely die. So that would bring it down around a quarter of a million.

    But this all assuming hospitals remain functioning.

    , @HA
    "If one grossly oversimplifies and extrapolates these numbers to the entire U.S., this may look like 15098*32.8 = 495,214 deaths"

    Half a million (or something "more than half a million", to be more precise) is a pretty good confirmation of the earlier intelligence worst-case estimates:


    The Navarro memos, first reported by the New York Times and Axios, were written by Navarro on 29 January and 23 February. The first memo, composed on the day Trump set up a White House coronavirus task force, gave a worst-case scenario of the virus killing more than half a million Americans.
     
  22. @George
    How will people be exposed to Covid or anything else during the lock down? Is herd immunity possible with the lock down? It seems like the people that demanded and got a lock down have lost the plot.

    The Swedes might have the right plan for 'flattening the curve' in a manner that might eventually end up with herd immunity, assuming immunity is possible and permanent.

    This is the first time, Sweden has actually shown some balls since 1808!, finally!

    Many people in The North, are immune to a lot of viruses because they have lived in The North since 12,000 BC. There would be no cities/towns/settlements in Scandinavia and Russia/Siberia if people had not developed immunity – don’t forget: there were no cities in Greenland and northern North America at the same time as the “old world.”

    Of course, at this point, there’s some speculation that the Covid-19 is an unnatural virus/man-made/lab manipulated…and there is chattering all over the world about this. Cat’s outta the bag! Every young person, at home, is investigating who, what group, what consortium did this. Young people are furious, and they want revenge. Revenge leads to a semblance of relief…relief that bad people can not do this to humanity, and, on a micro-level, to destroy the future of Millennials and Z, and destroy their parents’ jobs/lives/future – people want retribution!

    All I can say is: young people will hate, hate, hate Boomers & Gen Xrs more than ever. These creepy/duplicitous people have ruined the future for Millennials and Gen Z, world-wide. Hate is in the air, and this time, young people are gonna revolt.

    The 60’s bs young people were weak, messed-up, degenerate, narcissistic, drug addled (now Hep C creeps) losers…the New young people will get stealth and “take no prisoners.” And, I think that is wholly appropriate because they have been lied to for so many decades that people in power are good…and not the psychopaths that they are. And, they are especially angry, and on a war path, because their Bernie checked out. They have no one, absolutely no one, that they believe deserves their respect. Of course, kids on the Trump Train will be fine, but Bernie kids are angry and cynical.

    • Agree: RichardTaylor
    • Replies: @Kaz
    Man all the millenials on my feed which are largely liberal are in a bloody rage that people aren't taking this seriously enough.

    They blame old people for not taking it seriously enough! They want to save old people knowing they themselves aren't at great risk.
    , @Reg Cæsar

    All I can say is: young people will hate, hate, hate Boomers & Gen Xrs more than ever. These creepy/duplicitous people have ruined the future for Millennials and Gen Z, world-wide. Hate is in the air, and this time, young people are gonna revolt.
     
    By "marrying" someone of the same sex?

    Is there any social metric on which we have improved, or turned around, since 1945? All I can think of is far fewer boys are named Junior.
    , @Anonymous

    All I can say is: young people will hate, hate, hate Boomers & Gen Xrs more than ever.
     
    When you’re trying to think, do you really say the same word repeatedly in your head? I’m here to tell you that it reflects a pattern of neuroticism. Left unaddressed, that’s something that will carry far more dynamic negative repercussions in your life than any boomer's best laid plans. See to it that you receive professional assistance. I’m only trying to help you.
  23. Does anyone have the paper link? The USC press release is at
    https://news.usc.edu/168987/antibody-testing-results-covid-19-infections-los-angeles-county/

    Q&A with Neeraj Sood at: https://news.usc.edu/168810/usc-covid-19-antibody-researcher-answers-questions-about-testing-in-l-a-county/

    But I can’t find the paper.

    One thing that is interesting is to observe that two of the three (no Ioannidis here) professors Steve mentioned in the Santa Clara county paper are also involved here. From the Santa Clara post: “Stanford professor authors Bendavid, Bhattacharya, and Ioannidis have been prominent skeptics of the recent doom-oriented conventional wisdom.”

    I can guesstimate IFR by taking the middle of their CI, or 330,000 infections (in early April) then noting there are currently 617 deaths recorded in LA County. Adding another 2x since we are only two weeks from then gives an IFR estimate of (617 * 2) / 330,000 = 0.4%

    0.2% – 0.4% sounds increasingly plausible to me, but I would prefer to see the real analysis.

    P.S. The USC school of medicine is named “Keck School of Medicine of USC” ; )
    Thought some here might appreciate that.

    P.P.S. Full author list for Santa Clara paper: Eran Bendavid, Bianca Mulaney, Neeraj Sood, Soleil Shah, Emilia Ling, Rebecca Bromley-Dulfano, Cara Lai, Zoe Weissberg, Rodrigo Saavedra, James Tedrow, Dona Tversky, Andrew Bogan, Thomas Kupiec, Daniel Eichner, Ribhav Gupta, John Ioannidis, Jay Bhattacharya
    Daniel Eichner was also involved in the LA paper according to the first link (so at least three shared authors). Based on the author overlap it seems reasonable to speculate this paper will have similar shortcomings.

  24. Anonymous[190] • Disclaimer says:

    What will be done in most places looks to be eradication. With 4% of the population having been infected there is no herd immunity as you say. Same as Wuhan, Lombardy and NY.

    Those states who would choose to let it run wild would look to have other states who eradicate shutting off travel.

    Thanks for your original article. It’s odd that a group who notice, are fairly numerate (13… 50) would latch on to the “just a flu bro” meme. Watch 1.25 onwards especially.

    You don’t want to let it get out of control.

    https://podcasts.apple.com/podcast/2-2-the-frontlines-of-covid19/id1502496721?i=1000469076514

    It is very possible to defeat this, but like anything if you want to be good at something you need to at least understand what people are doing who do it better than you, understand their techniques, and copy them.

    Note that both Steve and Unz take this seriously while entertaining a lot that others would dismiss as conspiracy stuff. That should tell everyone something.

    And if nothing else (and there is a lot else) what is wrong with a long needed moratorium on immigration from s$%^hole countries and a reduction in deaths from older white voters?

  25. It is a misconception to think that everyone will become infected with a virus unless herd immunity or specific antibodies or vaccine.
    There is non specific immunity, each virus has differing abilities to infect, one can have antibodies close enough to a similar virus to be protected, the number for herd immunity can be different for each virus, there are very complicated
    environmental factors affecting transmission, etc.
    Why is influenza seasonal?
    I have never had a flu vaccine yet have not had it for 50 years?
    Why does your spouse not get a cold when you do?

    This is all super complicated.
    Isolation, masks, hand washing may ameliorate some of this.
    But these efforts can’t be at the cost of end of civilization? The shutdowns have massive consequences themselves.
    Precautions for high risk.
    Stay at home or mask when ill.
    Doubt will be vaccine( cold is Coronavirus, there is no vaccine)
    This is probably just bad flu season with a previously unidentified agent as part of ILI’s.

    Who knows if even worse.
    Can’t just look at NYC and extrapolate.
    There will always be areas harder hit.
    Need to look at numbers overall.
    Death totals are meaningless now with incentives of all kinds to exaggerate .

    Agree with previous poster that Covid 19 positivity probably does not change overall survival significantly .
    Also is being used as cudgel to prevent Trump re-election.
    Whether was planned or just opportunistically used will never be known.
    Would not underestimate evil and determination of Deep State(Brennan, Clapper, unknown actors, etc.)

  26. Anonymous[348] • Disclaimer says:

    Please explain the neurotics who keep pushing this virus panic. It must represent some thing else to them.

  27. @epebble
    So, for a simpleminded analysis, is it sensible to say, the eventual death toll in L.A. County will be 619/0.041 = 15,098? (when the infection reaches everyone). If so, that is a pretty major statistic. If one grossly oversimplifies and extrapolates these numbers to the entire U.S., this may look like 15098*32.8 = 495,214 deaths. Much larger than the 200,000 or 100,000 or 60,000 predicted by the model.

    Hopefully, we will get better at treating infected people with time and learning. Also, not likely to spread to 100% before herd immunity reduces spread. So if it peters out at 67% infected, maybe 300+K by this math?

    Also, I don’t know if they tested kids. So maybe you can leave out the fifth or so of the population who is under 18, since they rarely die. So that would bring it down around a quarter of a million.

    But this all assuming hospitals remain functioning.

    • Replies: @XYZ (no Mr.)
    Since the Wuhan virus is much more infectious than the flu, it also stands to reason some who would normally die of influenza will die of the novel coronavirus instead. So 250K deaths due to the Wuhan virus does not mean 250K excess deaths countrywide over the year. I am curious what the April 2020 flu deaths will look like.
    , @Marshall Lentini

    Hopefully, we will get better at treating infected people with time and learning
     
    In the meantime let's all be forced by totally innocent elites and the endlessly wise harridans of social media to sit on our asses inside all day watching sententious geezers inflate statistics from the tenths to the ones place, because that's how good policy is shaped and life ought to be lived "in these uncertain times".

    I'm checking out of this. It's fait accompli anyhow - the panickers have won, even if this or that local lockdown is tentatively lifted. It is indeed the "new normal" and there's dick we can do about it. There's a lot of incredibly smart guys here fighting the good fight for freedom (is Kratoklastes a genius or what?), relative though it be, but I can't look at another geezer rationalization for more enslavement. Pathetic.

  28. “4.1% is a long way from herd immunity,”

    It seems herd immunity and social distancing (or you could call it civic distancing) are mutually exclusive things. You made your choice.

    • Replies: @Mehen


    It seems herd immunity and social distancing (or you could call it civic distancing) are mutually exclusive things. You made your choice.
     
    For those of us who suspect the bug had been circulating extensively long before lockdowns were put in place this is a moot point.

    But you are correct — for those who subscribe to conventional narratives, this is worth pointing out.
  29. Here’s a data point:

    >There are few high-traffic businesses more densely populated than grocery stores. In fact, within the U.S. economy retail supermarkets have the highest foot traffic of any business sector in the entire economy; that’s just an empirical fact…. and the coronavirus impact increased that foot traffic by an average of 40 percent. Now, stop and think about this logically & apply a large dose of common sense. Think about human-to-human interface.First, with approximately 90 percent of the total U.S. population penetrating through grocery outlets; and with 100% of that massive number of consumers going through checkout lanes; if the COVID-19 viral strain was as significant as claimed by the worst-case data, then supermarket cashiers would have been the highest exposed profession of U.S. workers in the entire nation. There wouldn’t even be a close second place.<

    https://theconservativetreehouse.com/2020/04/20/common-sense-and-human-interface-georgia-governor-brian-kemp-announces-phased-reopening-of-business-starting-this-week/

    I’d also add gas stations.

    • Agree: botazefa
    • Replies: @jim jones
    Just be thankful you do not live in Africa:

    https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=A-6ylYNhrcY
  30. Ot/ sometimes I read articles like this https://www.theguardian.com/us-news/2020/apr/20/hawaii-coronavirus-covid-19-tourists
    and I realize, it’s all in the writing.

    “ “People from Hawaii have always had this underlying tension with people coming in,” said Bruhl. “People here see themselves as a collective considering the whole rather than ‘I’. Now we feel like we’re trying to protect ourselves.””

    Unlike those horrible people on the mainland who voted for Trump!

    This sentiment has been commonplace in HI since at least the ‘70s. What’s funny is The Guardian has a money appeal attached to this article implicitly bemoaning Trump for expressing the same sentiments on behalf of his base. They worry that the US is losing its leadership position in the world. Ha!

  31. @George
    How will people be exposed to Covid or anything else during the lock down? Is herd immunity possible with the lock down? It seems like the people that demanded and got a lock down have lost the plot.

    The Swedes might have the right plan for 'flattening the curve' in a manner that might eventually end up with herd immunity, assuming immunity is possible and permanent.

    The Swedes might have the right plan for ‘flattening the curve’ in a manner that might eventually end up with herd immunity,

    Can’t be sure if the Swedish approach is good until we know a) whether immunity lasts more than a few months and b) whether coronavirus-19 permanently damages lungs, heart, kidneys, liver, soles of feet, blood, brain …

    • Replies: @HA
    "Can’t be sure if the Swedish approach is good until we know a) whether immunity lasts more than a few months and b) whether coronavirus-19 permanently damages lungs, heart, kidneys, liver, soles of feet, blood, brain …"

    I have no problem with the Swedes choosing whatever approach suits their population best, but it has little bearing on the US regardless of the outcome. For one thing, if Greta the waitress from Stockholm feels under the weather and wants to self-quarantine for a few weeks to be responsible, good for her. Then again, she lives in a cradle-to-grave welfare state that will pay her sick leave and make sure she won't be destitute. Whereas if Consuela from the taco bar in the Bronx has a cough, she can't afford that option, because if she doesn't get that minimum wage plus tips, she'll lose her apartment and health insurance and it's basically game over for her, so she'll just choose to take the risk. That means that she might get a few people sick, which will likely lead to lawsuits from customers (and Consuela might want to get in on that herself by saying her employer pressured her so she deserves compensation too), but rest assured it's a whole different story. As with Maine and Vermont, there's a lot Sweden can get away with that just won't work here.

    But hey, if you're crazy enough to think that Sweden is the "champion of Western man", they'll probably have a few more available slots in a few months, and if you're reading this, you probably look more Syrian than some of the Bangladeshis there who are trying to pass for that. Have at it.

    , @Mr. Anon

    Can’t be sure if the Swedish approach is good until we know a) whether immunity lasts more than a few months and b) whether coronavirus-19 permanently damages lungs, heart, kidneys, liver, soles of feet, blood, brain …
     
    One symptom of coronavirus infection seems to be that the afflicted person turns into a drama-queen.
  32. Neeraj Sood is an economist with a Ph.D. from RAND Graduate School (and earlier degrees from Delhi University), and a former RAND corporation employee.

    He is not a doctor, biologist or epidemiologist. Back in the ’60s and ’70s, people from RAND used to pride themselves in being able to solve any policy problem, and master any field of quantitative policy research but then they got a bad name after some spectacular policy failures.

    Oh well, at a time like this, I suppose every bit of research helps, as long as it is well designed and executed.

    • Replies: @Reg Cæsar

    Neeraj Sood is an economist with a Ph.D. from RAND Graduate School (and earlier degrees from Delhi University), and a former RAND corporation employee.
     
    And a Bollywood star:

    https://en.m.wikipedia.org/wiki/Neeraj_Sood


    Neeraj Sood = Rodeo jeans.
  33. @Reg Cæsar
    "Covid toes"? That's a hallux to the bollox:


    https://www.yahoo.com/lifestyle/covid-toes-why-dermatologists-seeing-epidemic-kids-135948618.html

    Yeah, you’d think they’d send the kids off for some nasal swabs. The kids are not infected until the virus is detected.

  34. @Anonymous
    Talk of Herd Immunity is a distraction. Talk of a vaccine is noise. The only sure defense is to be healthy - to have good lungs and good circulation. Have that and if, by chance, you get a bad infection, you have a good chance of surviving.

    And you don't have to be all that healthy to survive! Learned today an old lady I know who has been "sick" longer than I can remember, and who bounces between low budget nursing homes, she got Covid, was hospitalized and is now "better".

    Ok, who exactly is dying of this virus?

    Covid-19 will be the virus story the next year or so. Then the hype for another bug will start. And in ten years or so that next big one will hit. In the interim people will still be dying of "bugs". A lot of people. Will we care if the bug is not Covid-19? Or does only it get its own counter?

    I would say this was peak social hysteria. But it's not yet November and Trump hasn't been reelected.

    who exactly is dying of this virus?

    good question. Here in NJ 40% of the deaths are among elderly nursing home residents. In New York 30% of the deaths are among elderly nursing home residents. Half the coronavirus deaths in Pennsylvania are in nursing homes and long-term care facilities. https://www.post-gazette.com/news/health/2020/04/15/COVID-19-coronavirus-Allegheny-County-Pennsylvania-cases-deaths-data/stories/202004150100

  35. @Steve Sailer
    Hopefully, we will get better at treating infected people with time and learning. Also, not likely to spread to 100% before herd immunity reduces spread. So if it peters out at 67% infected, maybe 300+K by this math?

    Also, I don't know if they tested kids. So maybe you can leave out the fifth or so of the population who is under 18, since they rarely die. So that would bring it down around a quarter of a million.

    But this all assuming hospitals remain functioning.

    Since the Wuhan virus is much more infectious than the flu, it also stands to reason some who would normally die of influenza will die of the novel coronavirus instead. So 250K deaths due to the Wuhan virus does not mean 250K excess deaths countrywide over the year. I am curious what the April 2020 flu deaths will look like.

    • Replies: @Steve Sailer
    The regular flu just disappeared since March. The government announced that they won't be publishing any more weekly flu updates until the fall because the 2019-2020 flu season is Over.
    , @Anonymous

    Since the Wuhan virus is much more infectious than the flu, it also stands to reason some who would normally die of influenza will die of the novel coronavirus instead
     
    What makes you think the Wuhan virus is “much more contagious than the flu”?

    Seems it is actually no more contagious than the flu, but that it is deadlier to some population groups.
  36. @XYZ (no Mr.)
    Since the Wuhan virus is much more infectious than the flu, it also stands to reason some who would normally die of influenza will die of the novel coronavirus instead. So 250K deaths due to the Wuhan virus does not mean 250K excess deaths countrywide over the year. I am curious what the April 2020 flu deaths will look like.

    The regular flu just disappeared since March. The government announced that they won’t be publishing any more weekly flu updates until the fall because the 2019-2020 flu season is Over.

    • Replies: @XYZ (no Mr.)
    Yes, I see. No doubt social distancing and lockdowns worked much more effectively on the influenza virus as we are all either somewhat immune, or have gotten a vaccine. Looking at past flu seasons it appears Week 11 (March 15+) is still an active time of infection, slowly decaying towards the end of April, after which is a long tail. This year at Week 11 (March 15+) -- roughly the start of shelter orders in many areas -- flu infections decay rapidly and essentially completely disappear within 2-3 weeks.
    , @Hail
    From the CDC:

    https://hailtoyou.files.wordpress.com/2020/04/cdc-influenza-update-for-2009-to-2020.gif

    That data is through the end of the day on April 11 (Week 15). (US Outpatient Influenza-like Illness Surveillance Network.)
  37. Anon[407] • Disclaimer says:

    “On Sunday, New York Gov. Andrew Cuomo said the U.S. Food and Drug Administration approved the state’s antibody test, and the state will conduct “thousands” of tests this week. The antibody tests will give the state its “first true snapshot” of how many people in the state have been infected with Covid-19, he said.”

    So New York is finally getting its act together.

  38. Anonymous[190] • Disclaimer says:

    https://mobile.twitter.com/realDonaldTrump/status/1252418369170501639

    Looks like Trump is seriously trying to secure re-election now.

  39. HA says:
    @epebble
    So, for a simpleminded analysis, is it sensible to say, the eventual death toll in L.A. County will be 619/0.041 = 15,098? (when the infection reaches everyone). If so, that is a pretty major statistic. If one grossly oversimplifies and extrapolates these numbers to the entire U.S., this may look like 15098*32.8 = 495,214 deaths. Much larger than the 200,000 or 100,000 or 60,000 predicted by the model.

    “If one grossly oversimplifies and extrapolates these numbers to the entire U.S., this may look like 15098*32.8 = 495,214 deaths”

    Half a million (or something “more than half a million”, to be more precise) is a pretty good confirmation of the earlier intelligence worst-case estimates:

    The Navarro memos, first reported by the New York Times and Axios, were written by Navarro on 29 January and 23 February. The first memo, composed on the day Trump set up a White House coronavirus task force, gave a worst-case scenario of the virus killing more than half a million Americans.

  40. @George
    How will people be exposed to Covid or anything else during the lock down? Is herd immunity possible with the lock down? It seems like the people that demanded and got a lock down have lost the plot.

    The Swedes might have the right plan for 'flattening the curve' in a manner that might eventually end up with herd immunity, assuming immunity is possible and permanent.

    Herd immunity was always the only possible end point for this virus for western societies. It is just a matter of how chaotic and damaging the process will be to get there. Hopefully, the IFR is low, but even if it say 1% strict lockdowns still make no sense. There is simply no workable exit strategy to strict lockdowns. The economic and related social damage is just too great to extend or periodically repeat severe social distancing. The Swedish/Japan approach of trying very hard to isolate the vulnerable, and only implementing social distancing to the extent it was sustainable, was the only approach that ever made sense. Their approach will turn out really good if the IFR is low. Their approach will turn out much less good if the IFR is high, but will still be the better than the alternatives.

  41. @Anonymous
    Talk of Herd Immunity is a distraction. Talk of a vaccine is noise. The only sure defense is to be healthy - to have good lungs and good circulation. Have that and if, by chance, you get a bad infection, you have a good chance of surviving.

    And you don't have to be all that healthy to survive! Learned today an old lady I know who has been "sick" longer than I can remember, and who bounces between low budget nursing homes, she got Covid, was hospitalized and is now "better".

    Ok, who exactly is dying of this virus?

    Covid-19 will be the virus story the next year or so. Then the hype for another bug will start. And in ten years or so that next big one will hit. In the interim people will still be dying of "bugs". A lot of people. Will we care if the bug is not Covid-19? Or does only it get its own counter?

    I would say this was peak social hysteria. But it's not yet November and Trump hasn't been reelected.

    I preferred the before-time, the long-long-ago. When the only Corona-denier was the bartender cutting me off.

  42. OT: President Trump will suspend immigration into the US!

    In light of the attack from the Invisible Enemy, as well as the need to protect the jobs of our GREAT American Citizens, I will be signing an Executive Order to temporarily suspend immigration into the United States!

  43. 3850096

    “roughly 221,000 to 442,000 adults who have recovered from an infection”. vs. , “The current official number of cumulative CV cases in L.A. County is 13,823” – If the number of infected is 15 to 31 higher than CV cases it may mean that the disease was spreading faster implying higher R0. In Kaiser Permanente study they estimated the pre lockdown R0=2.09 for Southern California. Higher R0 implies higher number of infected for the herd immunity according to this formula 1-1/R0.

  44. @BIG DUCK
    Why do you keep focusing on herd immunity? Infectious rates slow way down well before herd immunity is reached. The Spanish flu only achieved around 25-30 percent before burning out. There has never been a disease in history that goes at rates you are talking about.

    By what mechanism do epidemics burn out before herd immunity?

    Not saying you are wrong, just asking?

  45. @Lagertha
    This is the first time, Sweden has actually shown some balls since 1808!, finally!

    Many people in The North, are immune to a lot of viruses because they have lived in The North since 12,000 BC. There would be no cities/towns/settlements in Scandinavia and Russia/Siberia if people had not developed immunity - don't forget: there were no cities in Greenland and northern North America at the same time as the "old world."

    Of course, at this point, there's some speculation that the Covid-19 is an unnatural virus/man-made/lab manipulated...and there is chattering all over the world about this. Cat's outta the bag! Every young person, at home, is investigating who, what group, what consortium did this. Young people are furious, and they want revenge. Revenge leads to a semblance of relief...relief that bad people can not do this to humanity, and, on a micro-level, to destroy the future of Millennials and Z, and destroy their parents' jobs/lives/future - people want retribution!

    All I can say is: young people will hate, hate, hate Boomers & Gen Xrs more than ever. These creepy/duplicitous people have ruined the future for Millennials and Gen Z, world-wide. Hate is in the air, and this time, young people are gonna revolt.

    The 60's bs young people were weak, messed-up, degenerate, narcissistic, drug addled (now Hep C creeps) losers...the New young people will get stealth and "take no prisoners." And, I think that is wholly appropriate because they have been lied to for so many decades that people in power are good...and not the psychopaths that they are. And, they are especially angry, and on a war path, because their Bernie checked out. They have no one, absolutely no one, that they believe deserves their respect. Of course, kids on the Trump Train will be fine, but Bernie kids are angry and cynical.

    Man all the millenials on my feed which are largely liberal are in a bloody rage that people aren’t taking this seriously enough.

    They blame old people for not taking it seriously enough! They want to save old people knowing they themselves aren’t at great risk.

    • Replies: @RichardTaylor
    The phrase "millenials" needs to be broken down a bit. People of color are now making up the majority of people under the age of 10. I'm not sure about millenials, but they are barely majority White.

    People say millenials didn't like Trump. But actually, the majority of White millenials voted for Trump. Young Whites are living with the disaster the "Greatest" generation and the Boomers left them. And future Whites will live as a hated minority.
  46. Hail says: • Website

    Steve Sailer wrote:

    4.1% is a long way from herd immunity, which is usually thought to kick in somewhere over 50%.

    An anon commenter wrote:

    You’d think the takeaway here would be how ridiculous the response is relative to the infection rate

    We are now getting lots and lots of good data showing what an unambiguously bad mistake the mass-shutdowns were in at least some places:

    [The] epidemic curves … are declining, as I predicted, including in most European and North-American countries, irrespective of whether social distancing was imposed on their citizens and, if so, when and how.

    Hence, there is no evidence that social distancing had an effect that could justify shutting the economy down, causing >22M people to lose their jobs, and spending trillions of dollars […]

    Dr. Knut Wittkowski, April 15

    • Replies: @JohnnyWalker123
    Perhaps the best strategy is a "targeted shutdown."

    Ban mass gatherings (concerts, political rallies, sports games, conventions, trade shows, mega churches). Ban public transportation (buses, trains, subways, taxis, uber). Ban nightlife (bars, pubs, clubs, pool halls, house parties). Close public spaces (parks, beaches, playgrounds). Shutdown malls and gyms. Have university students take online classes.

    However, keep open everything else. Encourage people to work from home when they can, but don't close businesses, manufacturing facilities, or offices.

    Mandate everyone wear a mask in public and walk around with hand sanitizer.

    Make sure doors are kept open, so nobody touches the door.

    Clean surfaces often.

    If someone is sick, force them to stay home. Healthy people can go out. Have govt officials do public temperature checks often on people entering large facilities.
    , @HA
    "[The] epidemic curves … are declining, as I predicted,"

    Yeah, epidemic curves eventually decline. That was a lot safer than Wittkowski's prediction that only 10,000 would die from this disease but for some reason he doesn't want to remind people of that prediction.

    Again, to the extent that the #coronahoax crowd didn't get a fairer hearing, they have only themselves to blame. Next time, pick someone better than him to be your guru.
    , @utu
    What is the source of the plot of "reconstructed' R0 in Germany?
  47. @Steve Sailer
    The regular flu just disappeared since March. The government announced that they won't be publishing any more weekly flu updates until the fall because the 2019-2020 flu season is Over.

    Yes, I see. No doubt social distancing and lockdowns worked much more effectively on the influenza virus as we are all either somewhat immune, or have gotten a vaccine. Looking at past flu seasons it appears Week 11 (March 15+) is still an active time of infection, slowly decaying towards the end of April, after which is a long tail. This year at Week 11 (March 15+) — roughly the start of shelter orders in many areas — flu infections decay rapidly and essentially completely disappear within 2-3 weeks.

    • Replies: @Steve Sailer
    Right. Social distancing has been remarkably strong in the US over the last month, judging by the disappearance of regular flu.
  48. @Lagertha
    This is the first time, Sweden has actually shown some balls since 1808!, finally!

    Many people in The North, are immune to a lot of viruses because they have lived in The North since 12,000 BC. There would be no cities/towns/settlements in Scandinavia and Russia/Siberia if people had not developed immunity - don't forget: there were no cities in Greenland and northern North America at the same time as the "old world."

    Of course, at this point, there's some speculation that the Covid-19 is an unnatural virus/man-made/lab manipulated...and there is chattering all over the world about this. Cat's outta the bag! Every young person, at home, is investigating who, what group, what consortium did this. Young people are furious, and they want revenge. Revenge leads to a semblance of relief...relief that bad people can not do this to humanity, and, on a micro-level, to destroy the future of Millennials and Z, and destroy their parents' jobs/lives/future - people want retribution!

    All I can say is: young people will hate, hate, hate Boomers & Gen Xrs more than ever. These creepy/duplicitous people have ruined the future for Millennials and Gen Z, world-wide. Hate is in the air, and this time, young people are gonna revolt.

    The 60's bs young people were weak, messed-up, degenerate, narcissistic, drug addled (now Hep C creeps) losers...the New young people will get stealth and "take no prisoners." And, I think that is wholly appropriate because they have been lied to for so many decades that people in power are good...and not the psychopaths that they are. And, they are especially angry, and on a war path, because their Bernie checked out. They have no one, absolutely no one, that they believe deserves their respect. Of course, kids on the Trump Train will be fine, but Bernie kids are angry and cynical.

    All I can say is: young people will hate, hate, hate Boomers & Gen Xrs more than ever. These creepy/duplicitous people have ruined the future for Millennials and Gen Z, world-wide. Hate is in the air, and this time, young people are gonna revolt.

    By “marrying” someone of the same sex?

    Is there any social metric on which we have improved, or turned around, since 1945? All I can think of is far fewer boys are named Junior.

    • Replies: @RichardTaylor

    By “marrying” someone of the same sex?

    Is there any social metric on which we have improved, or turned around, since 1945? All I can think of is far fewer boys are named Junior.
     
    And just who is responsible for decades of forced integration, open borders and bizarre social engineering? Previous generations who have been in control.

    Are you going to blame people in their 20s for social metrics declining since 1945! Just who do you think deserves the blame if not the disloyal Boomers and the "Greatest Generation"?
    , @Lagertha
    No, Reg! I am referring to the future economic lives of people in their twenties. After 2008, this group gets another horrible set-back. This is why they want socialism...well, the ones with Democrat parents.

    And, you will be happy to know that Gen Z is a lot more Conservative than the Millennial group. They are very similar to the late Boomers like me, who rejected the lame Hippie Culture - we were pilloried then, and called Preppies (in HS) and Yuppies once working in the early 80's.

    Socially, I agree; a lot of losers/identity freaks are in their 20's. But, the Conservative ones do not have tacky tattoos or need to wear their insecurity on them, or claim victimhood over everything.

    So glad my gorgeous sons avoided all ink and piercings. Tattoos (the leeching of the metals/dyes into the pancreas) will eventually cause pancreatic cancer which many people are unaware of.

  49. Hail says: • Website

    by early April

    221,000 to 442,000 adults who have recovered from an infection

    That means these are only past-positives and not current-positives, right? And the number of past+current positives should be some degree higher?

    adults

    Children are excluded, artificially deflating the all-population fatality rate.

    If including children and current-positives, you could be talking about 600,000, 700,000, maybe more, having had the virus in their systems by early April (past- or then-present positives), as much as three weeks ago.

    – By early April: 700,000 past- and current- positives? (all ages, of which 99% were asymptomatic)
    – By April 17: 495 deaths

    This is in line with a <0.1% true fatality rate again.
    ____

    TLDR: The Corona Apocalypse has washed out.

    • Replies: @Mehen

    TLDR: The Corona Apocalypse has washed out.
     
    Agreed.

    It’s all but certain now, especially as serology results continue to pour in at an accelerating rate.

    Those curious should check out r/COVID19 and observe the change in tenor.

    Like most scientists there is a bit of ideological bias, but they seem to be turning the ship around (slowly but surely) even if hardly anyone else is.

    It’s gonna be a fun 2 weeks observing how this all washes out — politically, scientifically, psychologically,etc.
  50. Anonymous[186] • Disclaimer says:
    @Je Suis Omar Mateen
    "I really hope Steve isn’t going to lose too much credibility over all this…"

    He lost all credibility. He joins Lion of the Blog as a mindless effeminate hysteric I read only to affirm my superiority. The chemotherapy back in the 1990s likely decimated Steve's testosterone and brain function.

    The chemotherapy back in the 1990s likely decimated Steve’s testosterone and brain function.

    And your uncle, back in the seventies, standing in your bedroom doorway at 3 in the morning waving his penis, likely eroded your sense of propriety beyond servicing.

    • LOL: Kolya Krassotkin
    • Replies: @Je Suis Omar Mateen
    "And your uncle, back in the seventies, standing in your bedroom doorway at 3 in the morning waving his penis, likely eroded your sense of propriety beyond servicing."

    Even tards express their thoughts. Rational people humor tards but don't take them seriously.

    Steve is a chemotard - her brush with mortality and her mass consumption of medicinal poison in her forties left her brain nonfunctional and reduced her emotionally to a bedshitting hysterical ninny. She advocates nonexistent things like vaccines for the common cold. She's an imbecile.

  51. Remember this is an exponential process: four doublings of 4% (8, 16, 32, 64) gets you to well over 50%. How many doublings were required to get from one or a small number of infected persons in the area to 4% of the entire population, and over what period of time did that process take place? I’m thinking that we may be much closer to herd immunity than Steve seems to think, notwithstanding that doubling times may get longer the closer you get to that threshold. A respected flu epidemiologist recently said in an interview that flus generally reach herd immunity in about 4 weeks time, absent social distancing. We ought to keep that fact in mind.

  52. Anonymous[186] • Disclaimer says:
    @Lagertha
    This is the first time, Sweden has actually shown some balls since 1808!, finally!

    Many people in The North, are immune to a lot of viruses because they have lived in The North since 12,000 BC. There would be no cities/towns/settlements in Scandinavia and Russia/Siberia if people had not developed immunity - don't forget: there were no cities in Greenland and northern North America at the same time as the "old world."

    Of course, at this point, there's some speculation that the Covid-19 is an unnatural virus/man-made/lab manipulated...and there is chattering all over the world about this. Cat's outta the bag! Every young person, at home, is investigating who, what group, what consortium did this. Young people are furious, and they want revenge. Revenge leads to a semblance of relief...relief that bad people can not do this to humanity, and, on a micro-level, to destroy the future of Millennials and Z, and destroy their parents' jobs/lives/future - people want retribution!

    All I can say is: young people will hate, hate, hate Boomers & Gen Xrs more than ever. These creepy/duplicitous people have ruined the future for Millennials and Gen Z, world-wide. Hate is in the air, and this time, young people are gonna revolt.

    The 60's bs young people were weak, messed-up, degenerate, narcissistic, drug addled (now Hep C creeps) losers...the New young people will get stealth and "take no prisoners." And, I think that is wholly appropriate because they have been lied to for so many decades that people in power are good...and not the psychopaths that they are. And, they are especially angry, and on a war path, because their Bernie checked out. They have no one, absolutely no one, that they believe deserves their respect. Of course, kids on the Trump Train will be fine, but Bernie kids are angry and cynical.

    All I can say is: young people will hate, hate, hate Boomers & Gen Xrs more than ever.

    When you’re trying to think, do you really say the same word repeatedly in your head? I’m here to tell you that it reflects a pattern of neuroticism. Left unaddressed, that’s something that will carry far more dynamic negative repercussions in your life than any boomer’s best laid plans. See to it that you receive professional assistance. I’m only trying to help you.

  53. President Donald J. Trump just imposed an immigration moratorium.

    Seriously.

    I’d like to see the details, but this is a major step forward for immigration restrictionists.

    • Replies: @Anonymous
    Corona-chan is based and redpilled!
    , @JohnnyWalker123
    I'm curious what happens to immigrants who are in the green card backlog, like dependents or H1bs. Do they get permanent residence/citizenship?

    He's going to have to figure out the details, but at least he's thinking in the right direction. I just hope he follows through with this, instead of backing out or inserting some BS loophole.

    So I guess that seals the deal with respect to the 2020 election. Voting for Trump is the only logical choice now.
    , @Anonymous

    President Donald J. Trump just imposed an immigration moratorium.
     
    He just cemented his place in our history as the greatest president America has ever had.
    , @Alexander Turok
    It'll make a nice addition to the pile of executive orders he hasn't found the time to go through the formality of actually signing.
    , @Hippopotamusdrome


    President Donald J. Trump just imposed an immigration moratorium.

     

    Someone says in 2016: Trump will declare a state of emergency and stop immigration. Never Trumpers, Reddit, and John Oliver will ridicule the protesters opposing this.

    Other people in 2016: You're crazy.
  54. It doesn’t really matter what the problems with specificity in serological studies in places with low base rates are, the fact is that in Sweden and Boston etc we have seen the truth, that this is a mild illness that is essentially subclinical in all but the old and obese, in fact it kills only the most mortal even out of the elderly, even to say that it harvests 80 year olds is a mistake, it kills the old that have multiple comorbidities, certainly not those thriving oldsters who according to the actuarial tables have some years to go

    • Thanks: Anonymousse
  55. @Reg Cæsar

    All I can say is: young people will hate, hate, hate Boomers & Gen Xrs more than ever. These creepy/duplicitous people have ruined the future for Millennials and Gen Z, world-wide. Hate is in the air, and this time, young people are gonna revolt.
     
    By "marrying" someone of the same sex?

    Is there any social metric on which we have improved, or turned around, since 1945? All I can think of is far fewer boys are named Junior.

    By “marrying” someone of the same sex?

    Is there any social metric on which we have improved, or turned around, since 1945? All I can think of is far fewer boys are named Junior.

    And just who is responsible for decades of forced integration, open borders and bizarre social engineering? Previous generations who have been in control.

    Are you going to blame people in their 20s for social metrics declining since 1945! Just who do you think deserves the blame if not the disloyal Boomers and the “Greatest Generation”?

    • Replies: @Reg Cæsar

    Are you going to blame people in their 20s for social metrics declining since 1945!
     
    No, I'm going to blame them for not rejecting those values. If anything, they're reinforcing them with their tattoos.

    Tattoos! On girls!!


    Tattoos from my previous SJW life...

    https://i.pinimg.com/474x/8a/6b/87/8a6b87a46b90e37523f55d7bf88e1f50.jpg

    https://i.redd.it/zcbwnj2ripjz.jpg


    https://i.imgur.com/SJYXDoJ.jpg


    https://thetransformedwife.com/wp-content/uploads/2018/07/virgin.jpg

  56. @PiltdownMan
    Neeraj Sood is an economist with a Ph.D. from RAND Graduate School (and earlier degrees from Delhi University), and a former RAND corporation employee.

    He is not a doctor, biologist or epidemiologist. Back in the '60s and '70s, people from RAND used to pride themselves in being able to solve any policy problem, and master any field of quantitative policy research but then they got a bad name after some spectacular policy failures.

    Oh well, at a time like this, I suppose every bit of research helps, as long as it is well designed and executed.


    https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=8An747aWKEA

    Neeraj Sood is an economist with a Ph.D. from RAND Graduate School (and earlier degrees from Delhi University), and a former RAND corporation employee.

    And a Bollywood star:

    https://en.m.wikipedia.org/wiki/Neeraj_Sood

    Neeraj Sood = Rodeo jeans.

  57. Anonymous[190] • Disclaimer says:
    @JohnnyWalker123
    President Donald J. Trump just imposed an immigration moratorium.

    Seriously.

    https://twitter.com/vdare/status/1252426721401266176

    I'd like to see the details, but this is a major step forward for immigration restrictionists.

    Corona-chan is based and redpilled!

  58. Anonymous[169] • Disclaimer says:
    @XYZ (no Mr.)
    Since the Wuhan virus is much more infectious than the flu, it also stands to reason some who would normally die of influenza will die of the novel coronavirus instead. So 250K deaths due to the Wuhan virus does not mean 250K excess deaths countrywide over the year. I am curious what the April 2020 flu deaths will look like.

    Since the Wuhan virus is much more infectious than the flu, it also stands to reason some who would normally die of influenza will die of the novel coronavirus instead

    What makes you think the Wuhan virus is “much more contagious than the flu”?

    Seems it is actually no more contagious than the flu, but that it is deadlier to some population groups.

  59. @JohnnyWalker123
    President Donald J. Trump just imposed an immigration moratorium.

    Seriously.

    https://twitter.com/vdare/status/1252426721401266176

    I'd like to see the details, but this is a major step forward for immigration restrictionists.

    I’m curious what happens to immigrants who are in the green card backlog, like dependents or H1bs. Do they get permanent residence/citizenship?

    He’s going to have to figure out the details, but at least he’s thinking in the right direction. I just hope he follows through with this, instead of backing out or inserting some BS loophole.

    So I guess that seals the deal with respect to the 2020 election. Voting for Trump is the only logical choice now.

    • Replies: @XYZ (no Mr.)
    If you are on an H-1B and are far enough along in your Green Card process (have filed an adjustment of status), there is no expiration to your H-1B until a decision has been made on your Green Card. And that could take years if Indian or Chinese. That's one of the reasons there are a lot more H-1Bs in the US than 85K times 7, the length of the visa in years. No, Trump isn't going to deport green card backlogs, he shouldn't, they didn't do anything wrong. If he helps fix the system going forward, that is enough.
    , @anon
    This seems to be a temporary order. Anything substantial needs legislative action. The Embassies/consulates are not processing visas and there is no transport (mostly). And there are no jobs. So, the impact of this action is not what it sounds like. My guess is the green card system remains frozen till everything is back to life.

    But the message it sends, that America is "closed" may have some impact in terms of reducing desire to immigrate here. Already, many employment based professionals are giving up due to long waits and are choosing to go elsewhere. In that way, Trumps lasting achievement may be by generally making government dysfunctional, he has reduced immigrant and visitor flow somewhat. Now, if the dysfunction can extend to customs processing, it may give relief to local manufacturers by acting as a non-tariff barrier (import documents don't get processed promptly, get lost, foreign remittances get stuck up for a long time for investigation, foreign business people don't get visas, get arrested for selling stuff to wrong countries, there is frequent safety recall on imported goods ....). The problem is, people here have to get used to empty shelves, shortages, high prices and scramble when things are available in short supply.
  60. Anonymous[169] • Disclaimer says:
    @JohnnyWalker123
    President Donald J. Trump just imposed an immigration moratorium.

    Seriously.

    https://twitter.com/vdare/status/1252426721401266176

    I'd like to see the details, but this is a major step forward for immigration restrictionists.

    President Donald J. Trump just imposed an immigration moratorium.

    He just cemented his place in our history as the greatest president America has ever had.

    • Replies: @Hail
    But that up on there on his list of accomplishments next to "Ended the Anchor-Baby Citizenship Scam." Oh, wait.
  61. @MikeatMikedotMike
    "4.1% is a long way from herd immunity,"

    It seems herd immunity and social distancing (or you could call it civic distancing) are mutually exclusive things. You made your choice.

    It seems herd immunity and social distancing (or you could call it civic distancing) are mutually exclusive things. You made your choice.

    For those of us who suspect the bug had been circulating extensively long before lockdowns were put in place this is a moot point.

    But you are correct — for those who subscribe to conventional narratives, this is worth pointing out.

  62. 4.1% is a long way from herd immunity, which is usually thought to kick in somewhere over 50%.
    ———————————————————————
    Oh is it?
    Perhaps if you along with hysteric female cohorts had not been begging for a lock down and had life continued it would have been much closer to herd immunity
    What do you think genius?

  63. 619 dead from 4.1% infected means 7500 will die by the time 50% are infected, which is the herd immunity level if R0=2.

    • Replies: @Johnny Rico
    If your math is right and you scale it to the entire United States...you get...

    10 million LA county/7500 dead

    330 million US...

    33*7500 = 250,000 dead for 50% herd immunity.
  64. @Hail
    Steve Sailer wrote:

    4.1% is a long way from herd immunity, which is usually thought to kick in somewhere over 50%.
     
    An anon commenter wrote:

    You’d think the takeaway here would be how ridiculous the response is relative to the infection rate
     
    We are now getting lots and lots of good data showing what an unambiguously bad mistake the mass-shutdowns were in at least some places:

    https://hailtoyou.files.wordpress.com/2020/04/coronavirus-r0-in-germany-march-6-to-april-9.png

    [The] epidemic curves … are declining, as I predicted, including in most European and North-American countries, irrespective of whether social distancing was imposed on their citizens and, if so, when and how.

    Hence, there is no evidence that social distancing had an effect that could justify shutting the economy down, causing >22M people to lose their jobs, and spending trillions of dollars […]

    Dr. Knut Wittkowski, April 15
     

    Perhaps the best strategy is a “targeted shutdown.”

    Ban mass gatherings (concerts, political rallies, sports games, conventions, trade shows, mega churches). Ban public transportation (buses, trains, subways, taxis, uber). Ban nightlife (bars, pubs, clubs, pool halls, house parties). Close public spaces (parks, beaches, playgrounds). Shutdown malls and gyms. Have university students take online classes.

    However, keep open everything else. Encourage people to work from home when they can, but don’t close businesses, manufacturing facilities, or offices.

    Mandate everyone wear a mask in public and walk around with hand sanitizer.

    Make sure doors are kept open, so nobody touches the door.

    Clean surfaces often.

    If someone is sick, force them to stay home. Healthy people can go out. Have govt officials do public temperature checks often on people entering large facilities.

    • Replies: @HA
    "Ban mass gatherings (concerts, political rallies, sports games, conventions, trade shows, mega churches)."

    Again, large portions of the population don't need to bother with any of this. For example, if a group of black people want to hang out in all defiance of your good advice, are you willing to be the Permit Patty who calls the cops on them? How do you think that will work out? This is why public spaces get shut down altogether. Yeah, the joggers are probably no problem for anyone, but if you're going to open the parks for them, you have to open the parks to the BBQ boom-box crowds, and the police then get tasked with telling everyone the joggers can stay but the boom-box crowd has to pack it up. Again, how do you think that will work out?

    And why should black people care at all about obeying any coronavirus rules anyway, given that if any of them get sick, they can just blame everything on the Tuskegee syphilis experiments?

    There's a lot of nice, friendly and gentle approaches people are coming up with that might work with places close to Canada, but aren't realistic anywhere else in the US.

    , @Polynikes

    Have university students take online classes
     
    Crazy. In fact, the most ridiculous aspect of all this was the closing of universities. They took young healthy, likely asymptomatic carries, off campuses where they were in little danger and sent them back to their home communities to spread the disease and infect their grandparents and other at risk groups. It’s almost criminal.
  65. @Hail

    by early April
     

    221,000 to 442,000 adults who have recovered from an infection
     
    That means these are only past-positives and not current-positives, right? And the number of past+current positives should be some degree higher?

    adults
     
    Children are excluded, artificially deflating the all-population fatality rate.

    If including children and current-positives, you could be talking about 600,000, 700,000, maybe more, having had the virus in their systems by early April (past- or then-present positives), as much as three weeks ago.

    - By early April: 700,000 past- and current- positives? (all ages, of which 99% were asymptomatic)
    - By April 17: 495 deaths

    This is in line with a <0.1% true fatality rate again.
    ____

    TLDR: The Corona Apocalypse has washed out.

    TLDR: The Corona Apocalypse has washed out.

    Agreed.

    It’s all but certain now, especially as serology results continue to pour in at an accelerating rate.

    Those curious should check out r/COVID19 and observe the change in tenor.

    Like most scientists there is a bit of ideological bias, but they seem to be turning the ship around (slowly but surely) even if hardly anyone else is.

    It’s gonna be a fun 2 weeks observing how this all washes out — politically, scientifically, psychologically,etc.

  66. @JohnnyWalker123
    I'm curious what happens to immigrants who are in the green card backlog, like dependents or H1bs. Do they get permanent residence/citizenship?

    He's going to have to figure out the details, but at least he's thinking in the right direction. I just hope he follows through with this, instead of backing out or inserting some BS loophole.

    So I guess that seals the deal with respect to the 2020 election. Voting for Trump is the only logical choice now.

    If you are on an H-1B and are far enough along in your Green Card process (have filed an adjustment of status), there is no expiration to your H-1B until a decision has been made on your Green Card. And that could take years if Indian or Chinese. That’s one of the reasons there are a lot more H-1Bs in the US than 85K times 7, the length of the visa in years. No, Trump isn’t going to deport green card backlogs, he shouldn’t, they didn’t do anything wrong. If he helps fix the system going forward, that is enough.

  67. @Anonymous

    President Donald J. Trump just imposed an immigration moratorium.
     
    He just cemented his place in our history as the greatest president America has ever had.

    But that up on there on his list of accomplishments next to “Ended the Anchor-Baby Citizenship Scam.” Oh, wait.

  68. OT: Trump just announced he will issue an executive order
    suspending immigration.

    He just assured his second term.

    I wonder if this could be extended into a 25-year moratorium on immigration

  69. @newrouter
    Here's a data point:

    >There are few high-traffic businesses more densely populated than grocery stores. In fact, within the U.S. economy retail supermarkets have the highest foot traffic of any business sector in the entire economy; that’s just an empirical fact…. and the coronavirus impact increased that foot traffic by an average of 40 percent. Now, stop and think about this logically & apply a large dose of common sense. Think about human-to-human interface.First, with approximately 90 percent of the total U.S. population penetrating through grocery outlets; and with 100% of that massive number of consumers going through checkout lanes; if the COVID-19 viral strain was as significant as claimed by the worst-case data, then supermarket cashiers would have been the highest exposed profession of U.S. workers in the entire nation. There wouldn’t even be a close second place.<

    https://theconservativetreehouse.com/2020/04/20/common-sense-and-human-interface-georgia-governor-brian-kemp-announces-phased-reopening-of-business-starting-this-week/

    I'd also add gas stations.

    Just be thankful you do not live in Africa:

  70. In general, while Northern California gives the impression of being largely out of the woods, Los Angeles does not. Things might still get bad.

    Steve, in what sense is NorCal out of the woods?

    We basically camped out on the edge of the woods and still have to go through them at some point.

    Meanwhile they’ve closed even more parking lots this weekend and now you’re supposed to only exercise within 5 miles of home. And we have to start wearing masks in public starting Wednesday.

    What do you see as the endgame (or next steps) here? Are you really on the 18 month wait for a vaccine lockdown plan?
    Why?

  71. @JohnnyWalker123
    President Donald J. Trump just imposed an immigration moratorium.

    Seriously.

    https://twitter.com/vdare/status/1252426721401266176

    I'd like to see the details, but this is a major step forward for immigration restrictionists.

    It’ll make a nice addition to the pile of executive orders he hasn’t found the time to go through the formality of actually signing.

  72. @Steve Sailer
    The regular flu just disappeared since March. The government announced that they won't be publishing any more weekly flu updates until the fall because the 2019-2020 flu season is Over.

    From the CDC:

    That data is through the end of the day on April 11 (Week 15). (US Outpatient Influenza-like Illness Surveillance Network.)

    • Thanks: XYZ (no Mr.)
  73. OT: Trump just barred ALL IMMIGRATION via executive order.

    Is this the path to freedom?

  74. @Bill P
    Herd immunity is faster from 4% than initial infection to 4%.

    0.2% early on is a good sign. It means that IFR will probably not go higher than that.

    The virus is already widespread in my community. It went through the grocery store employees already, so I've shifted to carrying on as before because there's no avoiding it. I can't lockdown because I have kids and keeping them locked up would be unconscionable given the fact that they are essentially safe.

    If it gets me it gets me. I like my chances, but I'd rather not go through it if I haven't had it already, which I may well have by now.


    BTW, this fear of death among those who have already had a lot of life is unseemly. I don't really care how that sounds, because when I see what we're asking of the young it's pretty clear that this lockdown is an enormous burden, and we all die eventually.

    The Generational Moods

    ✓ Over 75 = “Eh? Sounds dangerous and maybe this’ll be The Big One but I already know santa is fake and I aint afraid of no ghost”

    X 55-75 = “NO! When I was young I was assured that if not for the Cold War science would solve death! Or at least that we’d all live till over 110! I’M TOO YOUNG TO DIE! These punk millennials have been writing excitedly about my upcoming death because I’m supposedly racist? And they even dare laugh me down with their ‘Okay Boomer’ mockery from their circle jerk safe spaces? Go to your rooms! This is MY time for a safe space.”

    $£¥ 40-55 = “Eh? Sounds dangerous. Besides, uh, well this is all kinna confusing and I’m too old to be radical so I guess I’ll go along with the prevailing wisdom and guidelines, but methinks the boomers are acting a little embarassing for their age.”

    @ 30 – 40 = “Men. This is what we’ve been training for. We knew this day would come. Whether it’s information repeating, doomsday prepping or begging to be allowed to stay home until the dragon is vanquished, we are at one with our computer screens and we will fight and kill and many of us shall die in this brave battle like our grandparents did during World War Two.

    !!! 15-30 = “Brought to you by Carl’s Jr. Brought to you by Carl’s Jr. BROUGHT TO YOU BY CARL’S JR!”

    ?¿? 0- 15 = “Well this is different than when I was just a child way back last year. And kind of scary! Just another thing to throw into the complex algebra of dealing with teething, zits and family. I wonder if this is forever? Mom? Is this…eh, she’s not going to give me a syraight answer. Heck, none of the adults told me last year that THIS was even coming!”

    • LOL: vhrm, Redneck farmer
  75. @JohnnyWalker123
    President Donald J. Trump just imposed an immigration moratorium.

    Seriously.

    https://twitter.com/vdare/status/1252426721401266176

    I'd like to see the details, but this is a major step forward for immigration restrictionists.

    President Donald J. Trump just imposed an immigration moratorium.

    Someone says in 2016: Trump will declare a state of emergency and stop immigration. Never Trumpers, Reddit, and John Oliver will ridicule the protesters opposing this.

    Other people in 2016: You’re crazy.

  76. HA says:
    @James Speaks

    The Swedes might have the right plan for ‘flattening the curve’ in a manner that might eventually end up with herd immunity,
     
    Can't be sure if the Swedish approach is good until we know a) whether immunity lasts more than a few months and b) whether coronavirus-19 permanently damages lungs, heart, kidneys, liver, soles of feet, blood, brain ...

    “Can’t be sure if the Swedish approach is good until we know a) whether immunity lasts more than a few months and b) whether coronavirus-19 permanently damages lungs, heart, kidneys, liver, soles of feet, blood, brain …”

    I have no problem with the Swedes choosing whatever approach suits their population best, but it has little bearing on the US regardless of the outcome. For one thing, if Greta the waitress from Stockholm feels under the weather and wants to self-quarantine for a few weeks to be responsible, good for her. Then again, she lives in a cradle-to-grave welfare state that will pay her sick leave and make sure she won’t be destitute. Whereas if Consuela from the taco bar in the Bronx has a cough, she can’t afford that option, because if she doesn’t get that minimum wage plus tips, she’ll lose her apartment and health insurance and it’s basically game over for her, so she’ll just choose to take the risk. That means that she might get a few people sick, which will likely lead to lawsuits from customers (and Consuela might want to get in on that herself by saying her employer pressured her so she deserves compensation too), but rest assured it’s a whole different story. As with Maine and Vermont, there’s a lot Sweden can get away with that just won’t work here.

    But hey, if you’re crazy enough to think that Sweden is the “champion of Western man”, they’ll probably have a few more available slots in a few months, and if you’re reading this, you probably look more Syrian than some of the Bangladeshis there who are trying to pass for that. Have at it.

    • Replies: @James Speaks

    you probably look more Syrian than some of the Bangladeshis there who are trying to pass for that. Have at it.
     
    Ackshually, I look quite Syrian.
    https://youtu.be/8ymWjizesaQ
  77. @James Speaks

    The Swedes might have the right plan for ‘flattening the curve’ in a manner that might eventually end up with herd immunity,
     
    Can't be sure if the Swedish approach is good until we know a) whether immunity lasts more than a few months and b) whether coronavirus-19 permanently damages lungs, heart, kidneys, liver, soles of feet, blood, brain ...

    Can’t be sure if the Swedish approach is good until we know a) whether immunity lasts more than a few months and b) whether coronavirus-19 permanently damages lungs, heart, kidneys, liver, soles of feet, blood, brain …

    One symptom of coronavirus infection seems to be that the afflicted person turns into a drama-queen.

    • LOL: Mehen
  78. anon[225] • Disclaimer says:
    @JohnnyWalker123
    I'm curious what happens to immigrants who are in the green card backlog, like dependents or H1bs. Do they get permanent residence/citizenship?

    He's going to have to figure out the details, but at least he's thinking in the right direction. I just hope he follows through with this, instead of backing out or inserting some BS loophole.

    So I guess that seals the deal with respect to the 2020 election. Voting for Trump is the only logical choice now.

    This seems to be a temporary order. Anything substantial needs legislative action. The Embassies/consulates are not processing visas and there is no transport (mostly). And there are no jobs. So, the impact of this action is not what it sounds like. My guess is the green card system remains frozen till everything is back to life.

    But the message it sends, that America is “closed” may have some impact in terms of reducing desire to immigrate here. Already, many employment based professionals are giving up due to long waits and are choosing to go elsewhere. In that way, Trumps lasting achievement may be by generally making government dysfunctional, he has reduced immigrant and visitor flow somewhat. Now, if the dysfunction can extend to customs processing, it may give relief to local manufacturers by acting as a non-tariff barrier (import documents don’t get processed promptly, get lost, foreign remittances get stuck up for a long time for investigation, foreign business people don’t get visas, get arrested for selling stuff to wrong countries, there is frequent safety recall on imported goods ….). The problem is, people here have to get used to empty shelves, shortages, high prices and scramble when things are available in short supply.

  79. In San Diego County, 41 of the 71 deaths, or 57%, have been in ‘congregate living facilities’. I assume this means assisted living and nursing homes.

    This type of ratio has held in many other places.

    Now, at least in CA, these places are locked down, no one can visit. One would hope those employed at these locations were being 100% tested and not allowed in if infected, but who knows. SDC just reported another outbreak. In any case, there is NO EXCUSE for these facilities to contribute more than half the deaths, going forward. To the extent we are not too stupid to solve this problem, fatality rates should be much lower.

  80. HA says:
    @Hail
    Steve Sailer wrote:

    4.1% is a long way from herd immunity, which is usually thought to kick in somewhere over 50%.
     
    An anon commenter wrote:

    You’d think the takeaway here would be how ridiculous the response is relative to the infection rate
     
    We are now getting lots and lots of good data showing what an unambiguously bad mistake the mass-shutdowns were in at least some places:

    https://hailtoyou.files.wordpress.com/2020/04/coronavirus-r0-in-germany-march-6-to-april-9.png

    [The] epidemic curves … are declining, as I predicted, including in most European and North-American countries, irrespective of whether social distancing was imposed on their citizens and, if so, when and how.

    Hence, there is no evidence that social distancing had an effect that could justify shutting the economy down, causing >22M people to lose their jobs, and spending trillions of dollars […]

    Dr. Knut Wittkowski, April 15
     

    “[The] epidemic curves … are declining, as I predicted,”

    Yeah, epidemic curves eventually decline. That was a lot safer than Wittkowski’s prediction that only 10,000 would die from this disease but for some reason he doesn’t want to remind people of that prediction.

    Again, to the extent that the #coronahoax crowd didn’t get a fairer hearing, they have only themselves to blame. Next time, pick someone better than him to be your guru.

    • Agree: utu
    • Replies: @Hail

    Wittkowski’s prediction that only 10,000 would die from this disease
     
    We don't know how many "die[d] from this disease." Operative word: 'from.'

    Knut Wittkowski, writing on April 20, on the coronavirus body count:


    It’s a moving target, because the US have changed the definition of CORVID death from death OF the virus, to death WITH the virus (car accident while infected), to death DURING the spread of the virus (death in somebody who looks as if he might have been had a contact with the virus).

    The message, however, is still the same: The number of “related” deaths is still within the range of what’s normal for a “flu” and, thus, doesn’t require any [more] precautions […] than what’s normal for a “flu”.
     

    , @Anonymousse
    So a 10K prediction is discrediting when the actual count may be ~60K but the 2 million prediction of certain celebrated “experts” is no issue?

    10K was materially correct from a policy perspective. If we acted on that reasonable estimate we would be in an immeasurably better place right now.

  81. @Corvinus
    Not ridiculous in the least as far as the social distancing and other measures put in place.

    And, no, Mr. Sailer in this particular case is not going to lose credibility over saying how Covid-19 is real, and not a media created or globalist created hoax.

    Speaking of a lack of credibility, Trump should just admit he f---- up. But he can't, he's a narcissist.

    https://www.forbes.com/sites/lisettevoytko/2020/04/19/report-americans-at-world-health-organization-told-trump-administration-about-coronavirus-late-last-year/#56f0900da548

    Speaking of a lack of credibility,………….

    Says the man with none.

    Lack of credibility is implied with the intro “Corvinus says”

  82. @XYZ (no Mr.)
    Yes, I see. No doubt social distancing and lockdowns worked much more effectively on the influenza virus as we are all either somewhat immune, or have gotten a vaccine. Looking at past flu seasons it appears Week 11 (March 15+) is still an active time of infection, slowly decaying towards the end of April, after which is a long tail. This year at Week 11 (March 15+) -- roughly the start of shelter orders in many areas -- flu infections decay rapidly and essentially completely disappear within 2-3 weeks.

    Right. Social distancing has been remarkably strong in the US over the last month, judging by the disappearance of regular flu.

    • Replies: @Je Suis Omar Mateen
    "Right. Social distancing has been remarkably strong in the US over the last month, judging by the disappearance of regular flu."

    Um, since Uncle Samantha pays $13,000 per diagnosis, everyone suffering from 'regular flu' has been diagnosed with kung flu. That's why 'regular flu' has """"disappeared""". Social [sic] distancing's got nothing to do with it.

    Chemotard gonna chemotard.
  83. HA says:
    @JohnnyWalker123
    Perhaps the best strategy is a "targeted shutdown."

    Ban mass gatherings (concerts, political rallies, sports games, conventions, trade shows, mega churches). Ban public transportation (buses, trains, subways, taxis, uber). Ban nightlife (bars, pubs, clubs, pool halls, house parties). Close public spaces (parks, beaches, playgrounds). Shutdown malls and gyms. Have university students take online classes.

    However, keep open everything else. Encourage people to work from home when they can, but don't close businesses, manufacturing facilities, or offices.

    Mandate everyone wear a mask in public and walk around with hand sanitizer.

    Make sure doors are kept open, so nobody touches the door.

    Clean surfaces often.

    If someone is sick, force them to stay home. Healthy people can go out. Have govt officials do public temperature checks often on people entering large facilities.

    “Ban mass gatherings (concerts, political rallies, sports games, conventions, trade shows, mega churches).”

    Again, large portions of the population don’t need to bother with any of this. For example, if a group of black people want to hang out in all defiance of your good advice, are you willing to be the Permit Patty who calls the cops on them? How do you think that will work out? This is why public spaces get shut down altogether. Yeah, the joggers are probably no problem for anyone, but if you’re going to open the parks for them, you have to open the parks to the BBQ boom-box crowds, and the police then get tasked with telling everyone the joggers can stay but the boom-box crowd has to pack it up. Again, how do you think that will work out?

    And why should black people care at all about obeying any coronavirus rules anyway, given that if any of them get sick, they can just blame everything on the Tuskegee syphilis experiments?

    There’s a lot of nice, friendly and gentle approaches people are coming up with that might work with places close to Canada, but aren’t realistic anywhere else in the US.

  84. Europe-wide (at least within the 17 reporting countries), still fewer deaths from Wuhan-Flu than from the 2016-2017 flu season.

    Some individual countries have been hit hard, others hardly at all.

    There’s still the question of how many of those deaths are due to the lockdown itself. I don’t know what that number is. I suspect it is not zero.

    • Replies: @utu
    Worrying about people tormented, tortured and then killed by the lockdown comes straight form "How to Be a Little Flu Hoaxer" by Bill Ayers.
  85. Anon[374] • Disclaimer says:
    @Bill P
    Herd immunity is faster from 4% than initial infection to 4%.

    0.2% early on is a good sign. It means that IFR will probably not go higher than that.

    The virus is already widespread in my community. It went through the grocery store employees already, so I've shifted to carrying on as before because there's no avoiding it. I can't lockdown because I have kids and keeping them locked up would be unconscionable given the fact that they are essentially safe.

    If it gets me it gets me. I like my chances, but I'd rather not go through it if I haven't had it already, which I may well have by now.


    BTW, this fear of death among those who have already had a lot of life is unseemly. I don't really care how that sounds, because when I see what we're asking of the young it's pretty clear that this lockdown is an enormous burden, and we all die eventually.

    It’s not the fear of death that motivates Boomers to shut down the economy and basically impoverish younger generations (which they have already been doing for the past two decades, anyway). Everyone gets old and becomes aware of their own mortality. Rather, it’s the fear that the Boomer generation — and its cultural legacy — will be abruptly relegated to the trash heap, once they are the only group peering out the blinds on sunny days.

    The rational approach is to quarantine at-risk populations and have government accommodate them. But that means no more geriatric country clubs, no more symphony galas, no more business/legal/academic conferences, where the average age is 55+. Hyper affluent boomer communities — like Martha’s Vineyard, Brentwood or Marin County — basically become shut-in communities

    It’s not the fear of death. It’s the fear of permanent irrelevance.

  86. @Travis
    each day brings more good news from California. This study confirms the lower fatality rate for COVID 19 we have been observing in Germany and Boston

    While California may be a few weeks away from "heard" immunity , it appears that 50% of the population is already immune and will not even show any symptoms after catching this coronavirus. more and more studies confirm that most people with antibodies did not even get a cold. Many probably fought the virus without even creating any antibodies.

    This confirms the Santa Clara study results, showing that there is little need to wait for heard immunity if so few people will get sick from this virus. Even the homeless in Boston were immune to COVID 19 , despite having no access to free vitamin D from the sun in frigid Massachusetts.

    “each day brings more good news from California…”

    You mean unemployment in LA is still only 50% ? Awesome, let’s shoot for 90%. I am all for caution and research, but this looks more and more like a major overreaction.

    People and individual businesses should be given a choice: if you are willing to risk a 0.05% chance to die, you can go ahead and resume working; if not, well, you can stay home but you have to pay for it, no more free lunch – sell your stuff if you need money or forage for food at a nearest dumpster at midnight to avoid any human contact. I admire folks in some places who have the balls to protest this nonsense. Unfortunately, this is not enough and the economy is doomed. Say hello to a major inflation and dollar devaluation in near future. Ironically, the seniors will be hit hardest – their savings and pensions will not go nearly as far as they do now.

  87. @Reg Cæsar
    "Covid toes"? That's a hallux to the bollox:


    https://www.yahoo.com/lifestyle/covid-toes-why-dermatologists-seeing-epidemic-kids-135948618.html

    [please forgive errors in English and Latin grammar]

    Let The Bad Times Roll?

    If the condition of those toes is linked to COVID-19, the phenomenon seems worrisome. Might some children also be suffering from “silent” tiny brain infarcts – perhaps with long-term sequelae? Some events in adults attributed to ordinary strokes and/or heart attacks have likely been due to SARS-CoV-2 infections (a lot of clots). Interestingly, the link mentions lupus (as, of course, in Hydroxychloroquine).

    [MORE]

    “Covid toes” should remind some of a pediatric disease which affects medium sized arteries and which also has dermatologic manifestations. You’ve already been given one clue.* Here’s an eponymous one: Notwithstanding the name, helmets of this much-protected generation should provide absolutely no immunity.
    (sorry if that was too easy)

    * The Cars might jar memories of a jingle:

    Also see: “Thumbs up”? for treatment of an amputated pollex via transplanted hallux rigidus

    lupus erythema -toes -us?

  88. @Kaz
    Man all the millenials on my feed which are largely liberal are in a bloody rage that people aren't taking this seriously enough.

    They blame old people for not taking it seriously enough! They want to save old people knowing they themselves aren't at great risk.

    The phrase “millenials” needs to be broken down a bit. People of color are now making up the majority of people under the age of 10. I’m not sure about millenials, but they are barely majority White.

    People say millenials didn’t like Trump. But actually, the majority of White millenials voted for Trump. Young Whites are living with the disaster the “Greatest” generation and the Boomers left them. And future Whites will live as a hated minority.

    • Replies: @Reg Cæsar

    Young Whites are living with the disaster the “Greatest” generation and the Boomers left them.
     
    A good rule of thumb is that anyone who condemns "boomers" and/or "greatest" is talking about his own defective parents, and those who complain about "millennials" mean their own defective kids.
  89. @HA
    "Can’t be sure if the Swedish approach is good until we know a) whether immunity lasts more than a few months and b) whether coronavirus-19 permanently damages lungs, heart, kidneys, liver, soles of feet, blood, brain …"

    I have no problem with the Swedes choosing whatever approach suits their population best, but it has little bearing on the US regardless of the outcome. For one thing, if Greta the waitress from Stockholm feels under the weather and wants to self-quarantine for a few weeks to be responsible, good for her. Then again, she lives in a cradle-to-grave welfare state that will pay her sick leave and make sure she won't be destitute. Whereas if Consuela from the taco bar in the Bronx has a cough, she can't afford that option, because if she doesn't get that minimum wage plus tips, she'll lose her apartment and health insurance and it's basically game over for her, so she'll just choose to take the risk. That means that she might get a few people sick, which will likely lead to lawsuits from customers (and Consuela might want to get in on that herself by saying her employer pressured her so she deserves compensation too), but rest assured it's a whole different story. As with Maine and Vermont, there's a lot Sweden can get away with that just won't work here.

    But hey, if you're crazy enough to think that Sweden is the "champion of Western man", they'll probably have a few more available slots in a few months, and if you're reading this, you probably look more Syrian than some of the Bangladeshis there who are trying to pass for that. Have at it.

    you probably look more Syrian than some of the Bangladeshis there who are trying to pass for that. Have at it.

    Ackshually, I look quite Syrian.

    • Replies: @PiltdownMan
    Googling "Syrian kids" brings up a large proportion of images of cute Syrian kids who look white. So does the Syrian president's Syrian wife.

    https://i.telegraph.co.uk/multimedia/archive/02176/Asma-al-Assad_2176004b.jpg

  90. Hail says: • Website
    @HA
    "[The] epidemic curves … are declining, as I predicted,"

    Yeah, epidemic curves eventually decline. That was a lot safer than Wittkowski's prediction that only 10,000 would die from this disease but for some reason he doesn't want to remind people of that prediction.

    Again, to the extent that the #coronahoax crowd didn't get a fairer hearing, they have only themselves to blame. Next time, pick someone better than him to be your guru.

    Wittkowski’s prediction that only 10,000 would die from this disease

    We don’t know how many “die[d] from this disease.” Operative word: ‘from.’

    Knut Wittkowski, writing on April 20, on the coronavirus body count:

    It’s a moving target, because the US have changed the definition of CORVID death from death OF the virus, to death WITH the virus (car accident while infected), to death DURING the spread of the virus (death in somebody who looks as if he might have been had a contact with the virus).

    The message, however, is still the same: The number of “related” deaths is still within the range of what’s normal for a “flu” and, thus, doesn’t require any [more] precautions […] than what’s normal for a “flu”.

    • Replies: @Polynikes
    What the US and UK, among other places, did to cook the books is borderline absurd. Probably a side effect of the panic itself (“Who will have time to properly fill out death certificates with these million bodies piling up?”).

    But it’s a question for another day. I don’t know how you untangle it all now.
    , @HA
    "We don’t know how many “die[d] from this disease.”

    We know -- unless our anchor bias is too strong -- that it was plenty more than 10,000. Those MOMO graphs you stupidly chose as the hill to die on before the spikes subsequently showed up are enough to prove at least that much.

    It's no wonder you're so forgiving when it comes to terrible predictions.

    Yeah, a more careful counting will shift the cause-of-death into and out of the coronavirus pigeonhole, and will continue to be argued over for years to come. No one is disputing that. But don't assume that you'll win the subsequent rounds either. Prior to this thing breaking out, there were claims that the swine flu actually killed ten times more than was initially recorded. (And no, that doesn't mean that we should wait and let this thing likewise kill a couple of million people before we do anything -- it means we should have done even more back then, so that this time around we'd be better able to bridge the gap between those who want to save lives and those who want the least number of restriction, both of which are valid concerns. That's a lesson learned, and it's one more good reason to ignore the idiotic advice that people like you are dishing out this time around -- even if it should turn out that this thing is blessedly a lot more benign than initially feared, fingers crossed.) Mind you I'm not saying any of this for you. I realize you're probably beyond hope and really not even worth responding to at this point. But others who read this just might be persuaded, at least a little.

  91. @Anonymous
    Talk of Herd Immunity is a distraction. Talk of a vaccine is noise. The only sure defense is to be healthy - to have good lungs and good circulation. Have that and if, by chance, you get a bad infection, you have a good chance of surviving.

    And you don't have to be all that healthy to survive! Learned today an old lady I know who has been "sick" longer than I can remember, and who bounces between low budget nursing homes, she got Covid, was hospitalized and is now "better".

    Ok, who exactly is dying of this virus?

    Covid-19 will be the virus story the next year or so. Then the hype for another bug will start. And in ten years or so that next big one will hit. In the interim people will still be dying of "bugs". A lot of people. Will we care if the bug is not Covid-19? Or does only it get its own counter?

    I would say this was peak social hysteria. But it's not yet November and Trump hasn't been reelected.

    who exactly is dying of this virus?

    The risk factors seem to be:

    1. Poor general health (especially in people with “metabolic syndrome”, i.e. type 2 diabetes, obesity, cardiovascular disease, all these being associated with a high-sugar diet)

    2. Sex (males account for over 60% of deaths)

    3. Advanced age

    4. Skin colour (the darker your skin the more susceptible you are)

    5. City-dwelling, especially if you use public transport

    6. Finally, there seem to be fewer cases in lower latitudes.

    All of these are indicators of reduced immune function, some of which is obviously due to insufficiency of vitamin D, which has been shown to be important in mitigating or preventing acute respiratory distress syndrome (ARDS). When people die from Covid-19, they are dying from coronavirus-induced ARDS.

    Moral: eat good food, exercise in the sun, live in the country, do a reverse Rachael Dolzeal, and, if you are a toxic male, transition at once to get ahold of the second X chromosome that does such wonders for the immune system of the fair sex!

    • Replies: @danand

    “The risk factors seem to be:
    2. Sex (males account for over 60% of deaths)
    4. Skin colour (the darker your skin the more susceptible you are)”

     
    Mr. Tugmutton, my local TV newscast may offer a hint as to why:

    https://youtu.be/swlMu4L6uos?t=60
  92. @Hail
    Steve Sailer wrote:

    4.1% is a long way from herd immunity, which is usually thought to kick in somewhere over 50%.
     
    An anon commenter wrote:

    You’d think the takeaway here would be how ridiculous the response is relative to the infection rate
     
    We are now getting lots and lots of good data showing what an unambiguously bad mistake the mass-shutdowns were in at least some places:

    https://hailtoyou.files.wordpress.com/2020/04/coronavirus-r0-in-germany-march-6-to-april-9.png

    [The] epidemic curves … are declining, as I predicted, including in most European and North-American countries, irrespective of whether social distancing was imposed on their citizens and, if so, when and how.

    Hence, there is no evidence that social distancing had an effect that could justify shutting the economy down, causing >22M people to lose their jobs, and spending trillions of dollars […]

    Dr. Knut Wittkowski, April 15
     

    What is the source of the plot of “reconstructed’ R0 in Germany?

  93. @Mr. Anon
    Europe-wide (at least within the 17 reporting countries), still fewer deaths from Wuhan-Flu than from the 2016-2017 flu season.

    https://www.euromomo.eu/outputs/images/Pooled-number.png

    Some individual countries have been hit hard, others hardly at all.

    There's still the question of how many of those deaths are due to the lockdown itself. I don't know what that number is. I suspect it is not zero.

    Worrying about people tormented, tortured and then killed by the lockdown comes straight form “How to Be a Little Flu Hoaxer” by Bill Ayers.

    • Replies: @Mr. Anon
    There are undoubtedly people who have died from heart-attacks at home, because they were afraid to go to a hospital, old people who have died from neglect, people who will die because they didn't get a timely cancer diagnosis.

    By the way. care to comment on the graph I posted? Or do you just prefer snark to data?
  94. There’s a cabal at Stanford/Hoover who want to undermine mitigation measures suggested by the health experts.

    If they succeed, they will cause a lot of damage.

  95. @RichardTaylor

    By “marrying” someone of the same sex?

    Is there any social metric on which we have improved, or turned around, since 1945? All I can think of is far fewer boys are named Junior.
     
    And just who is responsible for decades of forced integration, open borders and bizarre social engineering? Previous generations who have been in control.

    Are you going to blame people in their 20s for social metrics declining since 1945! Just who do you think deserves the blame if not the disloyal Boomers and the "Greatest Generation"?

    Are you going to blame people in their 20s for social metrics declining since 1945!

    No, I’m going to blame them for not rejecting those values. If anything, they’re reinforcing them with their tattoos.

    Tattoos! On girls!!

    Tattoos from my previous SJW life…


    [MORE]

    • LOL: The Alarmist
    • Replies: @The Alarmist
    A great smile and healthily tanned skin also help ... the virgin prerequisite is waivable with appropriate testing.
  96. @RichardTaylor
    The phrase "millenials" needs to be broken down a bit. People of color are now making up the majority of people under the age of 10. I'm not sure about millenials, but they are barely majority White.

    People say millenials didn't like Trump. But actually, the majority of White millenials voted for Trump. Young Whites are living with the disaster the "Greatest" generation and the Boomers left them. And future Whites will live as a hated minority.

    Young Whites are living with the disaster the “Greatest” generation and the Boomers left them.

    A good rule of thumb is that anyone who condemns “boomers” and/or “greatest” is talking about his own defective parents, and those who complain about “millennials” mean their own defective kids.

    • Agree: PiltdownMan
    • Replies: @RichardTaylor

    A good rule of thumb is that anyone who condemns “boomers” and/or “greatest” is talking about his own defective
     
    My parents and grandparents were great and I'm not a millennial. People like you refuse to analyze and own up to the responsibility of previous generations. And it is beyond good bounds to insult people you don't know. But typical for your kind.

    You see, I do have sympathy for what young White people have inherited and I mourn what previous generations did to them. But every Goddamn Boomer wants to whine that he/she isn't appreciated enough.

    Pathetic.

  97. 4.1% is a long way from herd immunity, which is usually thought to kick in somewhere over 50%.

    You’ve got your eye on the wrong ball. It’s a nasty, opportunistic bug that culls so-called low-hanging fruit, but at 0.1% (SC) to 0.2% (LA) IFR, the mortality rate is not much more than a bad flu year.

  98. @James Speaks

    you probably look more Syrian than some of the Bangladeshis there who are trying to pass for that. Have at it.
     
    Ackshually, I look quite Syrian.
    https://youtu.be/8ymWjizesaQ

    Googling “Syrian kids” brings up a large proportion of images of cute Syrian kids who look white. So does the Syrian president’s Syrian wife.

    • Replies: @James Speaks

    Googling “Syrian kids” brings up a large proportion of images of cute Syrian kids who look white. So does the Syrian president’s Syrian wife.
     
    They don't look "white" whatever that is. They look Syrian.
    , @George
    "look white" They look Semitic to me.

    https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Syrians#History
  99. @Simon Tugmutton

    who exactly is dying of this virus?
     
    The risk factors seem to be:

    1. Poor general health (especially in people with "metabolic syndrome", i.e. type 2 diabetes, obesity, cardiovascular disease, all these being associated with a high-sugar diet)

    2. Sex (males account for over 60% of deaths)

    3. Advanced age

    4. Skin colour (the darker your skin the more susceptible you are)

    5. City-dwelling, especially if you use public transport

    6. Finally, there seem to be fewer cases in lower latitudes.

    All of these are indicators of reduced immune function, some of which is obviously due to insufficiency of vitamin D, which has been shown to be important in mitigating or preventing acute respiratory distress syndrome (ARDS). When people die from Covid-19, they are dying from coronavirus-induced ARDS.

    Moral: eat good food, exercise in the sun, live in the country, do a reverse Rachael Dolzeal, and, if you are a toxic male, transition at once to get ahold of the second X chromosome that does such wonders for the immune system of the fair sex!

    “The risk factors seem to be:
    2. Sex (males account for over 60% of deaths)
    4. Skin colour (the darker your skin the more susceptible you are)”

    Mr. Tugmutton, my local TV newscast may offer a hint as to why:

  100. @jimmyriddle
    How many false positives/false negatives does the test produce? That is really important.

    If there is a sytematic error, than a larger sample won't fix it.

    Since this was the same test, it’d be interesting to know if the similar studies in Kansas City and Cincy used the same test out different ones. They were both at about 4%.

    On the other hand, those rates are actually kind of low, comparatively. I think the NY pregnant lady sample had a 15% infection rate and the Boston homeless rate was an astounding 30%. (I’m taking these from news reports, I didn’t actually read the study, for full disclosure). None the less, those rates are much more in line with what we observed in princess and Roosevelt ships.

  101. @JohnnyWalker123
    Perhaps the best strategy is a "targeted shutdown."

    Ban mass gatherings (concerts, political rallies, sports games, conventions, trade shows, mega churches). Ban public transportation (buses, trains, subways, taxis, uber). Ban nightlife (bars, pubs, clubs, pool halls, house parties). Close public spaces (parks, beaches, playgrounds). Shutdown malls and gyms. Have university students take online classes.

    However, keep open everything else. Encourage people to work from home when they can, but don't close businesses, manufacturing facilities, or offices.

    Mandate everyone wear a mask in public and walk around with hand sanitizer.

    Make sure doors are kept open, so nobody touches the door.

    Clean surfaces often.

    If someone is sick, force them to stay home. Healthy people can go out. Have govt officials do public temperature checks often on people entering large facilities.

    Have university students take online classes

    Crazy. In fact, the most ridiculous aspect of all this was the closing of universities. They took young healthy, likely asymptomatic carries, off campuses where they were in little danger and sent them back to their home communities to spread the disease and infect their grandparents and other at risk groups. It’s almost criminal.

    • Agree: Federalist
  102. @Reg Cæsar

    Young Whites are living with the disaster the “Greatest” generation and the Boomers left them.
     
    A good rule of thumb is that anyone who condemns "boomers" and/or "greatest" is talking about his own defective parents, and those who complain about "millennials" mean their own defective kids.

    A good rule of thumb is that anyone who condemns “boomers” and/or “greatest” is talking about his own defective

    My parents and grandparents were great and I’m not a millennial. People like you refuse to analyze and own up to the responsibility of previous generations. And it is beyond good bounds to insult people you don’t know. But typical for your kind.

    You see, I do have sympathy for what young White people have inherited and I mourn what previous generations did to them. But every Goddamn Boomer wants to whine that he/she isn’t appreciated enough.

    Pathetic.

    • Replies: @Reg Cæsar

    And it is beyond good bounds to insult people you don’t know. But typical for your kind.
     
    Thanks for negating your argument so quickly, and saving us the trouble.

    I still can't see how I'm responsible for political decisions made when I was in kneepants. Unless you mean by Calvinist "imputation". Yeah, I shot JFK, too.

    I'm with Derb and Jared Taylor on free association-- neither integration nor segregation should be forced. I voted Libertarian for a couple of decades, when the party was still serious. My home county voted against FDR seven times. I'm guessing your "great" people never did even once.
  103. @Hail

    Wittkowski’s prediction that only 10,000 would die from this disease
     
    We don't know how many "die[d] from this disease." Operative word: 'from.'

    Knut Wittkowski, writing on April 20, on the coronavirus body count:


    It’s a moving target, because the US have changed the definition of CORVID death from death OF the virus, to death WITH the virus (car accident while infected), to death DURING the spread of the virus (death in somebody who looks as if he might have been had a contact with the virus).

    The message, however, is still the same: The number of “related” deaths is still within the range of what’s normal for a “flu” and, thus, doesn’t require any [more] precautions […] than what’s normal for a “flu”.
     

    What the US and UK, among other places, did to cook the books is borderline absurd. Probably a side effect of the panic itself (“Who will have time to properly fill out death certificates with these million bodies piling up?”).

    But it’s a question for another day. I don’t know how you untangle it all now.

  104. @Steve Sailer
    Right. Social distancing has been remarkably strong in the US over the last month, judging by the disappearance of regular flu.

    “Right. Social distancing has been remarkably strong in the US over the last month, judging by the disappearance of regular flu.”

    Um, since Uncle Samantha pays $13,000 per diagnosis, everyone suffering from ‘regular flu’ has been diagnosed with kung flu. That’s why ‘regular flu’ has “”””disappeared”””. Social [sic] distancing’s got nothing to do with it.

    Chemotard gonna chemotard.

    • Replies: @vhrm
    The Kinsa fever data shows fevers going well well below expected numbers (zero in many places) after social distancing started. That includes all the flu-likes including Covid-19. It's pretty impressive the desire to which that happened imo.

    (And also suggests that the lockdowns were unnecessary because they came after the curve was already bent)

    Also, don't be a dick.

  105. @anon
    You'd think the takeaway here would be how ridiculous the response is relative to the infection rate, not how far we are from herd immunity.

    I really hope Steve isn't going to lose too much credibility over all this...

    You’d think the takeaway might be that maybe most of the people on the planet sure do have coronavirus in their bodies from a lifetime of regular-guy colds, seasonal flus (naturally occurring, not created in a biowarfare lab), and sniffles. Coronavirus is a broad category: a family of familiar and non-deadly viruses normally occurring in the bodies of all the people on the planet. Please note that, increasingly, mention of this dread pandemic is now “coronavirus”: the question I’m still waiting to hear asked and answered is what EXACTLY do the tests test for, and what EXACTLY do the antibodies protect against?
    Another question: how accurate are all these tests? Who says so? where is the credible proof of their accuracy?
    Another question: A test, if it were accurate, which it’s not, and if it actually tested for “COVID-19”, which it doesn’t, is a one-day snapshot, only useful when someone with symptoms is admitted to a hospital.
    The latest flurry of useless running around in circles over testing is at best a distraction and at worst a means of extending and magnifying the panic and allowing the CDC to go into every state and set up “contact tracing” teams – another in the steady erosion of privacy we are being trained to appreciate.

  106. @Anonymous

    The chemotherapy back in the 1990s likely decimated Steve’s testosterone and brain function.
     
    And your uncle, back in the seventies, standing in your bedroom doorway at 3 in the morning waving his penis, likely eroded your sense of propriety beyond servicing.

    “And your uncle, back in the seventies, standing in your bedroom doorway at 3 in the morning waving his penis, likely eroded your sense of propriety beyond servicing.”

    Even tards express their thoughts. Rational people humor tards but don’t take them seriously.

    Steve is a chemotard – her brush with mortality and her mass consumption of medicinal poison in her forties left her brain nonfunctional and reduced her emotionally to a bedshitting hysterical ninny. She advocates nonexistent things like vaccines for the common cold. She’s an imbecile.

    • Replies: @HA
    "'And your uncle, back in the seventies, standing in your bedroom doorway at 3 in the morning waving...' Even tards express their thoughts."

    So says the guy who wants to instruct us on contagious diseases without ever having bothered to learn the difference between linear and exponential. That's like finding out the guy who wants to be your math tutor never bothered to learn the difference between addition and multiplication.

    Actually, I'm glad someone else picked up on your serious daddy issues -- however crudely they chose to express themselves. I'm not sure if it was a molesting uncle that set you off, or maybe just the fact that your dad was a pathetic loser who drank away your college money before you had a chance to snort it away, but whatever it was, you need to get some help with that. Or else, maybe just get a big ugly tattoo, like every other sad head case who wants to get back at their parents for their messy divorce and his traumatic childhood. Because as bad a lifestyle choice as that is, it's better than your alternative.

    But whatever you choose to do, keep in mind that not everyone's mother or father or grandfather was a pathetic loser like yours apparently was. Not everyone came to hate their elders the way you did. So maybe you should get some help with your personal drama before projecting your issues onto every boomer out there -- in the way that Sailer claims that Jewish feminists like to project the failures of their Freudianly dysfunctional fathers onto all other men. At this point, your daddy/mommy issues are as annoying as theirs. Granted, given your boasts about being a published author, you might be too poor for therapy, but there are other ways of working through whatever it is that's eating at you. Who knows, maybe when you work through the bad parenting you're endured, you can also simultaneously work through some of your issues with women, too, but first things first.

    In other words, we get it. It's a cry for help. Rest assured, you have been heard. But now it's high time to quit your crying and go get some help.

  107. @PiltdownMan
    Googling "Syrian kids" brings up a large proportion of images of cute Syrian kids who look white. So does the Syrian president's Syrian wife.

    https://i.telegraph.co.uk/multimedia/archive/02176/Asma-al-Assad_2176004b.jpg

    Googling “Syrian kids” brings up a large proportion of images of cute Syrian kids who look white. So does the Syrian president’s Syrian wife.

    They don’t look “white” whatever that is. They look Syrian.

  108. @PiltdownMan
    Googling "Syrian kids" brings up a large proportion of images of cute Syrian kids who look white. So does the Syrian president's Syrian wife.

    https://i.telegraph.co.uk/multimedia/archive/02176/Asma-al-Assad_2176004b.jpg

    “look white” They look Semitic to me.

    https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Syrians#History

  109. @Reg Cæsar
    "Covid toes"? That's a hallux to the bollox:


    https://www.yahoo.com/lifestyle/covid-toes-why-dermatologists-seeing-epidemic-kids-135948618.html

    I suspect I may have been infected because I had similar lesions starting about a month ago. One is still visible, but mostly healed. I’ve never had anything like them before. They are small, red, mildly raised welt-like patches that sting a little bit. According to the French they can occur anywhere on the body.

    I also had slightly swollen glands in my throat and a bout of headaches (which are rare for me) at the same time, but whatever it was was very mild and unaccompanied by fever, so I assumed it couldn’t be coronavirus. However, after seeing the articles tying these lesions to the infection, I’m not so sure anymore.

  110. I wonder if they tested for flu antibodies also. That could have been a sort of control. Estimate the number of people who had been infected with the flu, and compare that to flu hospitalizations and deaths data from this past season. You could get a rough estimate of the infection fatality rate of both.

    • Agree: danand
  111. HA says:
    @Hail

    Wittkowski’s prediction that only 10,000 would die from this disease
     
    We don't know how many "die[d] from this disease." Operative word: 'from.'

    Knut Wittkowski, writing on April 20, on the coronavirus body count:


    It’s a moving target, because the US have changed the definition of CORVID death from death OF the virus, to death WITH the virus (car accident while infected), to death DURING the spread of the virus (death in somebody who looks as if he might have been had a contact with the virus).

    The message, however, is still the same: The number of “related” deaths is still within the range of what’s normal for a “flu” and, thus, doesn’t require any [more] precautions […] than what’s normal for a “flu”.
     

    “We don’t know how many “die[d] from this disease.”

    We know — unless our anchor bias is too strong — that it was plenty more than 10,000. Those MOMO graphs you stupidly chose as the hill to die on before the spikes subsequently showed up are enough to prove at least that much.

    It’s no wonder you’re so forgiving when it comes to terrible predictions.

    Yeah, a more careful counting will shift the cause-of-death into and out of the coronavirus pigeonhole, and will continue to be argued over for years to come. No one is disputing that. But don’t assume that you’ll win the subsequent rounds either. Prior to this thing breaking out, there were claims that the swine flu actually killed ten times more than was initially recorded. (And no, that doesn’t mean that we should wait and let this thing likewise kill a couple of million people before we do anything — it means we should have done even more back then, so that this time around we’d be better able to bridge the gap between those who want to save lives and those who want the least number of restriction, both of which are valid concerns. That’s a lesson learned, and it’s one more good reason to ignore the idiotic advice that people like you are dishing out this time around — even if it should turn out that this thing is blessedly a lot more benign than initially feared, fingers crossed.) Mind you I’m not saying any of this for you. I realize you’re probably beyond hope and really not even worth responding to at this point. But others who read this just might be persuaded, at least a little.

    • Replies: @Bill P
    Even if this virus has the same mortality rate as the flu it's going to kill more people for the simple reason that it's new and there's no vaccine. As for the swine flu, I don't doubt that there were more deaths than originally recorded. I had it and it was the most virulent, persistent flu I've ever had. Very uncomfortable.

    I think coronavirus is a nasty, dangerous virus, and the idea of sweating through an infection does not appeal to me in the least. I'm just highly skeptical that it can be contained and the quarantine "cure" is starting to look even worse than the disease.

    Where I live we have a population-wide fatality rate nearly three times that of Los Angeles. However, nobody under 60 has died here, and nearly half the deaths are in the 90+ age group (not a typo). Yet we have people demanding that five year olds be locked up and not allowed to play with other kids. It's appalling, really.
  112. HA says:
    @Je Suis Omar Mateen
    "And your uncle, back in the seventies, standing in your bedroom doorway at 3 in the morning waving his penis, likely eroded your sense of propriety beyond servicing."

    Even tards express their thoughts. Rational people humor tards but don't take them seriously.

    Steve is a chemotard - her brush with mortality and her mass consumption of medicinal poison in her forties left her brain nonfunctional and reduced her emotionally to a bedshitting hysterical ninny. She advocates nonexistent things like vaccines for the common cold. She's an imbecile.

    “‘And your uncle, back in the seventies, standing in your bedroom doorway at 3 in the morning waving…’ Even tards express their thoughts.”

    So says the guy who wants to instruct us on contagious diseases without ever having bothered to learn the difference between linear and exponential. That’s like finding out the guy who wants to be your math tutor never bothered to learn the difference between addition and multiplication.

    Actually, I’m glad someone else picked up on your serious daddy issues — however crudely they chose to express themselves. I’m not sure if it was a molesting uncle that set you off, or maybe just the fact that your dad was a pathetic loser who drank away your college money before you had a chance to snort it away, but whatever it was, you need to get some help with that. Or else, maybe just get a big ugly tattoo, like every other sad head case who wants to get back at their parents for their messy divorce and his traumatic childhood. Because as bad a lifestyle choice as that is, it’s better than your alternative.

    But whatever you choose to do, keep in mind that not everyone’s mother or father or grandfather was a pathetic loser like yours apparently was. Not everyone came to hate their elders the way you did. So maybe you should get some help with your personal drama before projecting your issues onto every boomer out there — in the way that Sailer claims that Jewish feminists like to project the failures of their Freudianly dysfunctional fathers onto all other men. At this point, your daddy/mommy issues are as annoying as theirs. Granted, given your boasts about being a published author, you might be too poor for therapy, but there are other ways of working through whatever it is that’s eating at you. Who knows, maybe when you work through the bad parenting you’re endured, you can also simultaneously work through some of your issues with women, too, but first things first.

    In other words, we get it. It’s a cry for help. Rest assured, you have been heard. But now it’s high time to quit your crying and go get some help.

  113. West Coast got the Asian covid strain, NY and the East Coast got the more lethal Italian strain, in theory, as I understand it, having had the Asian version should help fight off the Italian strain.

    • Replies: @Steve Sailer
    That was my theory but who knows if it's true?
    , @Polynikes
    If that is indeed the case, then west coast lockdowns are hurting the country whereas east coast lock downs (or at least social distancing and not traveling) is helping the country, correct?
  114. @LondonBob
    West Coast got the Asian covid strain, NY and the East Coast got the more lethal Italian strain, in theory, as I understand it, having had the Asian version should help fight off the Italian strain.

    https://twitter.com/TraderStef/status/1252590312322629632?s=20

    That was my theory but who knows if it’s true?

  115. @RichardTaylor

    A good rule of thumb is that anyone who condemns “boomers” and/or “greatest” is talking about his own defective
     
    My parents and grandparents were great and I'm not a millennial. People like you refuse to analyze and own up to the responsibility of previous generations. And it is beyond good bounds to insult people you don't know. But typical for your kind.

    You see, I do have sympathy for what young White people have inherited and I mourn what previous generations did to them. But every Goddamn Boomer wants to whine that he/she isn't appreciated enough.

    Pathetic.

    And it is beyond good bounds to insult people you don’t know. But typical for your kind.

    Thanks for negating your argument so quickly, and saving us the trouble.

    I still can’t see how I’m responsible for political decisions made when I was in kneepants. Unless you mean by Calvinist “imputation”. Yeah, I shot JFK, too.

    I’m with Derb and Jared Taylor on free association– neither integration nor segregation should be forced. I voted Libertarian for a couple of decades, when the party was still serious. My home county voted against FDR seven times. I’m guessing your “great” people never did even once.

  116. @utu
    Worrying about people tormented, tortured and then killed by the lockdown comes straight form "How to Be a Little Flu Hoaxer" by Bill Ayers.

    There are undoubtedly people who have died from heart-attacks at home, because they were afraid to go to a hospital, old people who have died from neglect, people who will die because they didn’t get a timely cancer diagnosis.

    By the way. care to comment on the graph I posted? Or do you just prefer snark to data?

  117. to all of the brain geniuses insisting “this isn’t so bad” or “(((they’re))) cooking the books!!!”: how do you explain the difference in expected vs actual all-cause mortality?

    https://www.nytimes.com/interactive/2020/04/21/world/coronavirus-missing-deaths.html?action=click&module=Top%20Stories&pgtype=Homepage

    the observable history of the disease affirms the disease is very bad. the serology affirms that we will have fewer very bad epidemic cycles of it than we thought we would (barring vaccine).

  118. @LondonBob
    West Coast got the Asian covid strain, NY and the East Coast got the more lethal Italian strain, in theory, as I understand it, having had the Asian version should help fight off the Italian strain.

    https://twitter.com/TraderStef/status/1252590312322629632?s=20

    If that is indeed the case, then west coast lockdowns are hurting the country whereas east coast lock downs (or at least social distancing and not traveling) is helping the country, correct?

  119. @Je Suis Omar Mateen
    "I really hope Steve isn’t going to lose too much credibility over all this…"

    He lost all credibility. He joins Lion of the Blog as a mindless effeminate hysteric I read only to affirm my superiority. The chemotherapy back in the 1990s likely decimated Steve's testosterone and brain function.

  120. @George
    How will people be exposed to Covid or anything else during the lock down? Is herd immunity possible with the lock down? It seems like the people that demanded and got a lock down have lost the plot.

    The Swedes might have the right plan for 'flattening the curve' in a manner that might eventually end up with herd immunity, assuming immunity is possible and permanent.

    I don’t get how you can have a flattening of the curve if we are all hiding in our sealed up homes. Don’t you have to be exposed to it, and hope to have many us develop an immunity for the curve to flatten? It will be interesting to see if Sweden does get a flatten curve, and if their decision will lead to no second infection rate like we are going to see.

  121. @Je Suis Omar Mateen
    "Right. Social distancing has been remarkably strong in the US over the last month, judging by the disappearance of regular flu."

    Um, since Uncle Samantha pays $13,000 per diagnosis, everyone suffering from 'regular flu' has been diagnosed with kung flu. That's why 'regular flu' has """"disappeared""". Social [sic] distancing's got nothing to do with it.

    Chemotard gonna chemotard.

    The Kinsa fever data shows fevers going well well below expected numbers (zero in many places) after social distancing started. That includes all the flu-likes including Covid-19. It’s pretty impressive the desire to which that happened imo.

    (And also suggests that the lockdowns were unnecessary because they came after the curve was already bent)

    Also, don’t be a dick.

  122. @HA
    "We don’t know how many “die[d] from this disease.”

    We know -- unless our anchor bias is too strong -- that it was plenty more than 10,000. Those MOMO graphs you stupidly chose as the hill to die on before the spikes subsequently showed up are enough to prove at least that much.

    It's no wonder you're so forgiving when it comes to terrible predictions.

    Yeah, a more careful counting will shift the cause-of-death into and out of the coronavirus pigeonhole, and will continue to be argued over for years to come. No one is disputing that. But don't assume that you'll win the subsequent rounds either. Prior to this thing breaking out, there were claims that the swine flu actually killed ten times more than was initially recorded. (And no, that doesn't mean that we should wait and let this thing likewise kill a couple of million people before we do anything -- it means we should have done even more back then, so that this time around we'd be better able to bridge the gap between those who want to save lives and those who want the least number of restriction, both of which are valid concerns. That's a lesson learned, and it's one more good reason to ignore the idiotic advice that people like you are dishing out this time around -- even if it should turn out that this thing is blessedly a lot more benign than initially feared, fingers crossed.) Mind you I'm not saying any of this for you. I realize you're probably beyond hope and really not even worth responding to at this point. But others who read this just might be persuaded, at least a little.

    Even if this virus has the same mortality rate as the flu it’s going to kill more people for the simple reason that it’s new and there’s no vaccine. As for the swine flu, I don’t doubt that there were more deaths than originally recorded. I had it and it was the most virulent, persistent flu I’ve ever had. Very uncomfortable.

    I think coronavirus is a nasty, dangerous virus, and the idea of sweating through an infection does not appeal to me in the least. I’m just highly skeptical that it can be contained and the quarantine “cure” is starting to look even worse than the disease.

    Where I live we have a population-wide fatality rate nearly three times that of Los Angeles. However, nobody under 60 has died here, and nearly half the deaths are in the 90+ age group (not a typo). Yet we have people demanding that five year olds be locked up and not allowed to play with other kids. It’s appalling, really.

    • Replies: @epebble
    https://www.thenewatlantis.com/publications/not-like-the-flu-not-like-car-crashes-not-like

    It seems to have flared up again. U.S. Death count has crossed 45K (2,500 in last 24 hours). It will most likely cross the most recent estimate of 60K. Have they stopped updating the models?
    , @HA
    "I’m just highly skeptical that it can be contained and the quarantine “cure” is starting to look even worse than the disease."

    I don't think anyone believes it can be contained. And given that we have no clear understanding of how many deaths the lockdown is producing (I mean, even if we had a model for that it would be even less reliable than the epidemiological ones) we all have to guess about how much cure is too much, and your opinion on that matter -- assuming you're not a nutter, and maybe even if you are -- is worth considering. But so what? Many types of chemo are basically just a matter of killing the patient slowly enough to where the cancer hopefully gets killed first. Even though the lethality differential between cure and disease is small (to the extent that some patients say, not for me, thanks) it's still the best we have to work with.

    So no, the goal was never about containment. It was -- given the CFR and IFR ranges we had at our disposal -- to slow the infections to where cardio-pulmonary wings are not overwhelmed, and the needed testing kits and equipment (not just ventilators and oxygen tanks, but gloves and filters and sanitizers, not to mention HCQ) are available and not on backorder. Also, finding the best treatment takes some time -- e.g. ventilators are not that helpful, it turns out, whereas simply turning the patient on his stomach is something people should have considered earlier. (Vaccine development takes time, too.) Oh yeah, and delaying matters until you're out of the cold winter months is probably helpful as well.

    Sure, there's diminishing returns to all that waiting, and the minute details of when enough tests and masks are enough, and how long we can endure before we kill more from the economic downturn than we're saving (or if we haven't long since passed that point already) is something that will be argued about for years. Why would anyone expect anything else? Given the wide range of uncertainty, even now, the one thing we can be pretty certain of is that the government didn't pick the optimal approach at any stage (not that they're able to do that even when the range of uncertainties is tiny). That would be the case even if the government chose to do nothing. I mean, they'd find a way to flub that up, too. So crying about how the government failed us is not going to help, either.

    But all of this should be hashed out by people willing to argue in good faith, not by conspiracy kooks and backseat drivers and people who think the universe owes them an easy answer. It needs to be argued with the understanding that this won't be the last time China (or some bushmeat lovers in some other part of the world) does this to us. And it needs to be done with regard to the tail risk in the worse-case-scenarios, not just the most likely outcome so that even if the most likely outcome is that this is no worse than the flu -- which may ultimately be the final verdict on CV-- that doesn't mean we shouldn't have steered even harder and sooner in the other direction given the info/intel we had earlier on. I mean, how much should you pay to steer away from that game of Russian roulette you drunkenly agreed to before coming to your senses? It turns out that if you're risk-neutral, it's about 1/6 of whatever you think your life is worth. That's true even though the odds of surviving without a scratch are overwhelmingly in your favor without shelling out a dime. So be smart and have the guts to pay the exorbitant price and back out, and try not to play drunken games in the future. And if you can't understand the rationale behind that, you should probably find some other issue to argue about.

  123. @Bill P
    Even if this virus has the same mortality rate as the flu it's going to kill more people for the simple reason that it's new and there's no vaccine. As for the swine flu, I don't doubt that there were more deaths than originally recorded. I had it and it was the most virulent, persistent flu I've ever had. Very uncomfortable.

    I think coronavirus is a nasty, dangerous virus, and the idea of sweating through an infection does not appeal to me in the least. I'm just highly skeptical that it can be contained and the quarantine "cure" is starting to look even worse than the disease.

    Where I live we have a population-wide fatality rate nearly three times that of Los Angeles. However, nobody under 60 has died here, and nearly half the deaths are in the 90+ age group (not a typo). Yet we have people demanding that five year olds be locked up and not allowed to play with other kids. It's appalling, really.

    https://www.thenewatlantis.com/publications/not-like-the-flu-not-like-car-crashes-not-like

    It seems to have flared up again. U.S. Death count has crossed 45K (2,500 in last 24 hours). It will most likely cross the most recent estimate of 60K. Have they stopped updating the models?

    • Replies: @Bill P
    Of course there will be flare-ups as long as we rely on lockdown. We either let it roll through or we waste our time and effort erecting leaky dykes at enormous expense that will fail, one after another, long before there's a vaccine.

    I don't know where people get off on the idea that they can contain a virus that is not only very infectious, but that also produces up to 50%+ asymptomatic infectious carriers. It's crazy. The military studies of our carrier and the French carrier have confirmed this, so our high-level politicians already know the score.

    Time to crawl back out of our holes and mop up the mess.
  124. @Bill P
    Even if this virus has the same mortality rate as the flu it's going to kill more people for the simple reason that it's new and there's no vaccine. As for the swine flu, I don't doubt that there were more deaths than originally recorded. I had it and it was the most virulent, persistent flu I've ever had. Very uncomfortable.

    I think coronavirus is a nasty, dangerous virus, and the idea of sweating through an infection does not appeal to me in the least. I'm just highly skeptical that it can be contained and the quarantine "cure" is starting to look even worse than the disease.

    Where I live we have a population-wide fatality rate nearly three times that of Los Angeles. However, nobody under 60 has died here, and nearly half the deaths are in the 90+ age group (not a typo). Yet we have people demanding that five year olds be locked up and not allowed to play with other kids. It's appalling, really.

    “I’m just highly skeptical that it can be contained and the quarantine “cure” is starting to look even worse than the disease.”

    I don’t think anyone believes it can be contained. And given that we have no clear understanding of how many deaths the lockdown is producing (I mean, even if we had a model for that it would be even less reliable than the epidemiological ones) we all have to guess about how much cure is too much, and your opinion on that matter — assuming you’re not a nutter, and maybe even if you are — is worth considering. But so what? Many types of chemo are basically just a matter of killing the patient slowly enough to where the cancer hopefully gets killed first. Even though the lethality differential between cure and disease is small (to the extent that some patients say, not for me, thanks) it’s still the best we have to work with.

    So no, the goal was never about containment. It was — given the CFR and IFR ranges we had at our disposal — to slow the infections to where cardio-pulmonary wings are not overwhelmed, and the needed testing kits and equipment (not just ventilators and oxygen tanks, but gloves and filters and sanitizers, not to mention HCQ) are available and not on backorder. Also, finding the best treatment takes some time — e.g. ventilators are not that helpful, it turns out, whereas simply turning the patient on his stomach is something people should have considered earlier. (Vaccine development takes time, too.) Oh yeah, and delaying matters until you’re out of the cold winter months is probably helpful as well.

    Sure, there’s diminishing returns to all that waiting, and the minute details of when enough tests and masks are enough, and how long we can endure before we kill more from the economic downturn than we’re saving (or if we haven’t long since passed that point already) is something that will be argued about for years. Why would anyone expect anything else? Given the wide range of uncertainty, even now, the one thing we can be pretty certain of is that the government didn’t pick the optimal approach at any stage (not that they’re able to do that even when the range of uncertainties is tiny). That would be the case even if the government chose to do nothing. I mean, they’d find a way to flub that up, too. So crying about how the government failed us is not going to help, either.

    [MORE]

    But all of this should be hashed out by people willing to argue in good faith, not by conspiracy kooks and backseat drivers and people who think the universe owes them an easy answer. It needs to be argued with the understanding that this won’t be the last time China (or some bushmeat lovers in some other part of the world) does this to us. And it needs to be done with regard to the tail risk in the worse-case-scenarios, not just the most likely outcome so that even if the most likely outcome is that this is no worse than the flu — which may ultimately be the final verdict on CV– that doesn’t mean we shouldn’t have steered even harder and sooner in the other direction given the info/intel we had earlier on. I mean, how much should you pay to steer away from that game of Russian roulette you drunkenly agreed to before coming to your senses? It turns out that if you’re risk-neutral, it’s about 1/6 of whatever you think your life is worth. That’s true even though the odds of surviving without a scratch are overwhelmingly in your favor without shelling out a dime. So be smart and have the guts to pay the exorbitant price and back out, and try not to play drunken games in the future. And if you can’t understand the rationale behind that, you should probably find some other issue to argue about.

    • Replies: @Bill P
    My governor (Jay Inslee) and most of his authoritarian sycophants definitely seem to believe it can be contained. He's talking about contact tracing and suppression as a precondition for letting us emerge from our domiciles. The slogan, which is prominently displayed on freeway signs, is "stay home, stay safe."

    So at this point I'm not at all worried that our government has "failed us," but rather that it is actively suppressing us as though we are an enemy to public safety.

    And this is where the analogy of the body politic as a sick individual breaks down, because many of us, despite much lower risk, are being asked to bear a higher burden than those who really are looking at a game of Russian roulette. Or perhaps it is a good analogy -- if you think of the political response as a cytokine storm and ordinary working people as struggling epithelial cells.

    Furthermore, those of us bearing the brunt of the restrictions never wanted and never agreed to this "drunken game" of integrating China into our economy. It was a game from which we have seen no net benefits, and now the very people who plunged us into it are obliterating what's left of our wealth with a Chinese Communist-style crackdown on small business and economic activity in general.

    Frankly, I'm getting kind of tired of people talking about a "scientific" approach. For the most part, published and reviewed epidemiological papers have been much more sanguine about this pandemic than the media or, to be quite frank, this blog.

    Virtually everyone, including you, admits that the evidence is lacking, and I believe the best course of action when you don't know what the hell is going on is the most conservative one. Yet here you are advocating the opposite -- that we should hand over a fortune and consider ourselves lucky if we survive. I think that's the definition of a panic.

    I, personally, hope someone comes up with a better course of action than that, because I'd like to keep my shirt and pants, thank you very much!
  125. @anon
    You'd think the takeaway here would be how ridiculous the response is relative to the infection rate, not how far we are from herd immunity.

    I really hope Steve isn't going to lose too much credibility over all this...

    It’s funny that he can look at data cooly on an explosive area like black average IQ but on this virus thing he’s completely indistinguishable from a wine aunt posting #STAYTHEF*#%HOME on facebook.

    Worse maybe, because he’s numerate and smart enough to understand the implications here AND he’s aware of the evidence… but he’s still every bit as committed to the hysterical and counterfactual narrative as your average Rachel Maddow viewer.

    Could be his own past health issues or possibly just the universal human need to avoid admitting past error?

    In any case that just won’t cut it… the DAILY price of continuing to play along and wink at this hysteria almost defies comprehension. No one gets a pass on being unserious about this thing anymore.

    • Replies: @Corvinus
    "It’s funny that he can look at data cooly on an explosive area like black average IQ but on this virus thing he’s completely indistinguishable from a wine aunt posting #STAYTHEF*#%HOME on facebook."

    On this particular topic, Mr. Sailer has been generally on point, contrary to your narrative.

    "Worse maybe, because he’s numerate and smart enough to understand the implications here AND he’s aware of the evidence… but he’s still every bit as committed to the hysterical and counterfactual narrative as your average Rachel Maddow viewer."

    Most likely he is being his regular pattern recognizing self.

    "In any case that just won’t cut it… the DAILY price of continuing to play along and wink at this hysteria almost defies comprehension."

    Covid-19 is real, not a hoax. Nothing hysterical about a pandemic in the least.
  126. @HA
    "I’m just highly skeptical that it can be contained and the quarantine “cure” is starting to look even worse than the disease."

    I don't think anyone believes it can be contained. And given that we have no clear understanding of how many deaths the lockdown is producing (I mean, even if we had a model for that it would be even less reliable than the epidemiological ones) we all have to guess about how much cure is too much, and your opinion on that matter -- assuming you're not a nutter, and maybe even if you are -- is worth considering. But so what? Many types of chemo are basically just a matter of killing the patient slowly enough to where the cancer hopefully gets killed first. Even though the lethality differential between cure and disease is small (to the extent that some patients say, not for me, thanks) it's still the best we have to work with.

    So no, the goal was never about containment. It was -- given the CFR and IFR ranges we had at our disposal -- to slow the infections to where cardio-pulmonary wings are not overwhelmed, and the needed testing kits and equipment (not just ventilators and oxygen tanks, but gloves and filters and sanitizers, not to mention HCQ) are available and not on backorder. Also, finding the best treatment takes some time -- e.g. ventilators are not that helpful, it turns out, whereas simply turning the patient on his stomach is something people should have considered earlier. (Vaccine development takes time, too.) Oh yeah, and delaying matters until you're out of the cold winter months is probably helpful as well.

    Sure, there's diminishing returns to all that waiting, and the minute details of when enough tests and masks are enough, and how long we can endure before we kill more from the economic downturn than we're saving (or if we haven't long since passed that point already) is something that will be argued about for years. Why would anyone expect anything else? Given the wide range of uncertainty, even now, the one thing we can be pretty certain of is that the government didn't pick the optimal approach at any stage (not that they're able to do that even when the range of uncertainties is tiny). That would be the case even if the government chose to do nothing. I mean, they'd find a way to flub that up, too. So crying about how the government failed us is not going to help, either.

    But all of this should be hashed out by people willing to argue in good faith, not by conspiracy kooks and backseat drivers and people who think the universe owes them an easy answer. It needs to be argued with the understanding that this won't be the last time China (or some bushmeat lovers in some other part of the world) does this to us. And it needs to be done with regard to the tail risk in the worse-case-scenarios, not just the most likely outcome so that even if the most likely outcome is that this is no worse than the flu -- which may ultimately be the final verdict on CV-- that doesn't mean we shouldn't have steered even harder and sooner in the other direction given the info/intel we had earlier on. I mean, how much should you pay to steer away from that game of Russian roulette you drunkenly agreed to before coming to your senses? It turns out that if you're risk-neutral, it's about 1/6 of whatever you think your life is worth. That's true even though the odds of surviving without a scratch are overwhelmingly in your favor without shelling out a dime. So be smart and have the guts to pay the exorbitant price and back out, and try not to play drunken games in the future. And if you can't understand the rationale behind that, you should probably find some other issue to argue about.

    My governor (Jay Inslee) and most of his authoritarian sycophants definitely seem to believe it can be contained. He’s talking about contact tracing and suppression as a precondition for letting us emerge from our domiciles. The slogan, which is prominently displayed on freeway signs, is “stay home, stay safe.”

    So at this point I’m not at all worried that our government has “failed us,” but rather that it is actively suppressing us as though we are an enemy to public safety.

    And this is where the analogy of the body politic as a sick individual breaks down, because many of us, despite much lower risk, are being asked to bear a higher burden than those who really are looking at a game of Russian roulette. Or perhaps it is a good analogy — if you think of the political response as a cytokine storm and ordinary working people as struggling epithelial cells.

    Furthermore, those of us bearing the brunt of the restrictions never wanted and never agreed to this “drunken game” of integrating China into our economy. It was a game from which we have seen no net benefits, and now the very people who plunged us into it are obliterating what’s left of our wealth with a Chinese Communist-style crackdown on small business and economic activity in general.

    Frankly, I’m getting kind of tired of people talking about a “scientific” approach. For the most part, published and reviewed epidemiological papers have been much more sanguine about this pandemic than the media or, to be quite frank, this blog.

    Virtually everyone, including you, admits that the evidence is lacking, and I believe the best course of action when you don’t know what the hell is going on is the most conservative one. Yet here you are advocating the opposite — that we should hand over a fortune and consider ourselves lucky if we survive. I think that’s the definition of a panic.

    I, personally, hope someone comes up with a better course of action than that, because I’d like to keep my shirt and pants, thank you very much!

    • Replies: @HA
    "Virtually everyone, including you, admits that the evidence is lacking, and I believe the best course of action when you don’t know what the hell is going on is the most conservative one."

    The evidence is lacking that doesn't mean it's nonexistent. We have plenty of evidence from past epidemics and the models used to fit them of what kind of death toll we're talking about. Sure, there's an Overton window issue that can't always be resolved. Some people think it's no big deal to drop a million people to a disease now and then, just as many war-mongers think dropping a few million people in a war now and then keeps a society strong and warrior like. No, thanks. As for me, I'm grateful such people are increasingly regarded as cranks and kooks. That makes society a bit more secure in the event some really medieval bug comes along (which it eventually will given the China-linkage you speak of that neither you nor I voted for) and also helps protect us against the inevitable day that terrorists are able to engineer their own viruses. You can lie back and enjoy that, or whatever your conservative position amounts to, but I'm voting for more aggressive action. If that amounts to a panic in your eyes, I'll wear it as a badge of honor.

  127. @HA
    "[The] epidemic curves … are declining, as I predicted,"

    Yeah, epidemic curves eventually decline. That was a lot safer than Wittkowski's prediction that only 10,000 would die from this disease but for some reason he doesn't want to remind people of that prediction.

    Again, to the extent that the #coronahoax crowd didn't get a fairer hearing, they have only themselves to blame. Next time, pick someone better than him to be your guru.

    So a 10K prediction is discrediting when the actual count may be ~60K but the 2 million prediction of certain celebrated “experts” is no issue?

    10K was materially correct from a policy perspective. If we acted on that reasonable estimate we would be in an immeasurably better place right now.

    • Agree: vhrm
  128. @epebble
    https://www.thenewatlantis.com/publications/not-like-the-flu-not-like-car-crashes-not-like

    It seems to have flared up again. U.S. Death count has crossed 45K (2,500 in last 24 hours). It will most likely cross the most recent estimate of 60K. Have they stopped updating the models?

    Of course there will be flare-ups as long as we rely on lockdown. We either let it roll through or we waste our time and effort erecting leaky dykes at enormous expense that will fail, one after another, long before there’s a vaccine.

    I don’t know where people get off on the idea that they can contain a virus that is not only very infectious, but that also produces up to 50%+ asymptomatic infectious carriers. It’s crazy. The military studies of our carrier and the French carrier have confirmed this, so our high-level politicians already know the score.

    Time to crawl back out of our holes and mop up the mess.

    • Agree: epebble
    • Replies: @epebble
    The lockdowns were ordered on the theory of flattening the curve to prevent overwhelming hospitals. I think that has been achieved. More importantly, the great hope that ventilators are life savers has been dashed. So the lockdowns can be relaxed so that some semblance of normalcy can return. But the politicians have to have the courage to tell the people that we will be losing 1000 - 2000 people everyday nationwide for a long time till a drug or vaccine is discovered or the virus has done its job. I think most people have understood it though.
  129. @Bill P
    Of course there will be flare-ups as long as we rely on lockdown. We either let it roll through or we waste our time and effort erecting leaky dykes at enormous expense that will fail, one after another, long before there's a vaccine.

    I don't know where people get off on the idea that they can contain a virus that is not only very infectious, but that also produces up to 50%+ asymptomatic infectious carriers. It's crazy. The military studies of our carrier and the French carrier have confirmed this, so our high-level politicians already know the score.

    Time to crawl back out of our holes and mop up the mess.

    The lockdowns were ordered on the theory of flattening the curve to prevent overwhelming hospitals. I think that has been achieved. More importantly, the great hope that ventilators are life savers has been dashed. So the lockdowns can be relaxed so that some semblance of normalcy can return. But the politicians have to have the courage to tell the people that we will be losing 1000 – 2000 people everyday nationwide for a long time till a drug or vaccine is discovered or the virus has done its job. I think most people have understood it though.

  130. @Refugee from CA
    619 dead from 4.1% infected means 7500 will die by the time 50% are infected, which is the herd immunity level if R0=2.

    If your math is right and you scale it to the entire United States…you get…

    10 million LA county/7500 dead

    330 million US…

    33*7500 = 250,000 dead for 50% herd immunity.

  131. HA says:
    @Bill P
    My governor (Jay Inslee) and most of his authoritarian sycophants definitely seem to believe it can be contained. He's talking about contact tracing and suppression as a precondition for letting us emerge from our domiciles. The slogan, which is prominently displayed on freeway signs, is "stay home, stay safe."

    So at this point I'm not at all worried that our government has "failed us," but rather that it is actively suppressing us as though we are an enemy to public safety.

    And this is where the analogy of the body politic as a sick individual breaks down, because many of us, despite much lower risk, are being asked to bear a higher burden than those who really are looking at a game of Russian roulette. Or perhaps it is a good analogy -- if you think of the political response as a cytokine storm and ordinary working people as struggling epithelial cells.

    Furthermore, those of us bearing the brunt of the restrictions never wanted and never agreed to this "drunken game" of integrating China into our economy. It was a game from which we have seen no net benefits, and now the very people who plunged us into it are obliterating what's left of our wealth with a Chinese Communist-style crackdown on small business and economic activity in general.

    Frankly, I'm getting kind of tired of people talking about a "scientific" approach. For the most part, published and reviewed epidemiological papers have been much more sanguine about this pandemic than the media or, to be quite frank, this blog.

    Virtually everyone, including you, admits that the evidence is lacking, and I believe the best course of action when you don't know what the hell is going on is the most conservative one. Yet here you are advocating the opposite -- that we should hand over a fortune and consider ourselves lucky if we survive. I think that's the definition of a panic.

    I, personally, hope someone comes up with a better course of action than that, because I'd like to keep my shirt and pants, thank you very much!

    “Virtually everyone, including you, admits that the evidence is lacking, and I believe the best course of action when you don’t know what the hell is going on is the most conservative one.”

    The evidence is lacking that doesn’t mean it’s nonexistent. We have plenty of evidence from past epidemics and the models used to fit them of what kind of death toll we’re talking about. Sure, there’s an Overton window issue that can’t always be resolved. Some people think it’s no big deal to drop a million people to a disease now and then, just as many war-mongers think dropping a few million people in a war now and then keeps a society strong and warrior like. No, thanks. As for me, I’m grateful such people are increasingly regarded as cranks and kooks. That makes society a bit more secure in the event some really medieval bug comes along (which it eventually will given the China-linkage you speak of that neither you nor I voted for) and also helps protect us against the inevitable day that terrorists are able to engineer their own viruses. You can lie back and enjoy that, or whatever your conservative position amounts to, but I’m voting for more aggressive action. If that amounts to a panic in your eyes, I’ll wear it as a badge of honor.

  132. A letter to Mayor Garcetti from Soledad Ursua

    ear Mayor Garcetti,

    I am a Venice Beach resident, small business owner, and small family owned landlord which lives in a triplex and rents out two units. My two upstairs tenants were not able to pay rent on April 1st, yet I was still required to pay property taxes on April 10th. I am in a position where I am likely to have to carry the entire triplex for the next 4-6 months, since your eviction moratorium lasts for 90 days following the end of the local crisis, which I hope does end on May 15th as projected. I am not a large developer or property owner, so I do not have a federally backed mortgage. I am facing a real risk of losing my property and your eviction moratorium will cause massive mortgage defaults on an unprecedented level.

    Yesterday, on 4/18 I dialed into a town hall hosted by Councilmember Mike Bonin. My jaw dropped when he said the following,

    “I intend on putting in another proposal in the next week or two that asks the city to look at the federal bailout or stimulus funds we’ll be getting as a result of this crisis…and using some of that to either buy hotels that go belly up or to buy the distressed properties that are absolutely going to be on the market at cheaper prices after this crisis is over. And use that as homeless and affordable housing. It’s going to be a hell of a lot cheaper to purchase stuff that is already there and move people in there than if we start from scratch. A lot of good stuff is being done.” — Mike Bonin, LA City Councilmember, 11th District

    (Audio Link here

    at 1:07:09 of 1:29:20)

    It hit me that the City may end up with my property at the end of this crisis. The great irony here is that Wall Street will end up swooping in on all these distressed property deals. Are you any different yourself?

    It is my understanding that both you and Mike Bonin have always worked in the public sector; so let me make this simple–

    In order to weather an economic storm, cash is king. It’s the only way to stay solvent. Small landlords and property owners like myself asked for property tax relief before our April 10th payment deadline. I could have used that money to offset the lack of income from my tenants in order to keep everyone safe at home. I want more than anything else, for us all to return to normal, but the City refuses to take a haircut and is even getting paid overtime during this crisis, while law abiding citizens stay home and face financial ruin. Our 15 Councilmembers are making $280,000 annually and you are making $375,000, and you each have a staff of over 20 staffers.

    As our Mayor, you did not even go to the State to demand a property tax moratorium on behalf of we, the citizens of Los Angeles, your stakeholders. Why didn’t you have our back and fight for the best deal possible on behalf of your stakeholders?

    If you really wanted to help out Los Angelinos you would do the following:

    Take the federal bailout money, which Mike Bonin proposed to buy out distressed properties, and use it to create a citywide fund for property owners, which would act as a second mortgage. You could quickly let us borrow at 90% Loan-to-Value against the property taxes that we paid on April 10th. You would be able to verify our borrowing capacity very easily by looking at the LA County property tax records.

    Although it seems counter intuitive that we would have to pay these property taxes only to borrow against them, but it’s the most effective way to ensure that Los Angelinos can stay in their homes, for both renters and owners city wide. You could let us borrow the money that we already paid and then put us on a payment plan that begins 12 months following, which mirrors the payment plan of your eviction moratorium.

    If my email has not gotten you to do this as a rightful duty of the Mayor of LA, because it is the right thing to do, then let me remind you that your LA City Eviction Ban is unconstitutional, since takes away the legitimate police power and court powers afforded to private citizens. Your moratorium violates the 14th amendment and the contracts clause. Secondly, it also imposes a regulatory taking of private property, protected by the 14th and 5th amendments. If you do not act now to implement this, then the City of Los Angeles will be faced with an unprecedented amount civil rights lawsuits along these very lines, and you’ll find my name on a future class action lawsuit.

    And finally, could you please respond or contact me? I have been sending you unsolicited advice for the past 5 years. I am a native Los Angelino who was born at the east Los Angeles County Hospital. While I spent 9 years going to graduate school and working in New York City, I’ve moved home and I am in it for the long haul. I want what is best for this City and I am willing to work with anyone with the same common goal. I truly hope that you are one of those people.

    Best,

    Soledad Ursua
    Venice Beach Resident

  133. @Steve Sailer
    Hopefully, we will get better at treating infected people with time and learning. Also, not likely to spread to 100% before herd immunity reduces spread. So if it peters out at 67% infected, maybe 300+K by this math?

    Also, I don't know if they tested kids. So maybe you can leave out the fifth or so of the population who is under 18, since they rarely die. So that would bring it down around a quarter of a million.

    But this all assuming hospitals remain functioning.

    Hopefully, we will get better at treating infected people with time and learning

    In the meantime let’s all be forced by totally innocent elites and the endlessly wise harridans of social media to sit on our asses inside all day watching sententious geezers inflate statistics from the tenths to the ones place, because that’s how good policy is shaped and life ought to be lived “in these uncertain times”.

    I’m checking out of this. It’s fait accompli anyhow – the panickers have won, even if this or that local lockdown is tentatively lifted. It is indeed the “new normal” and there’s dick we can do about it. There’s a lot of incredibly smart guys here fighting the good fight for freedom (is Kratoklastes a genius or what?), relative though it be, but I can’t look at another geezer rationalization for more enslavement. Pathetic.

  134. @Reg Cæsar

    Are you going to blame people in their 20s for social metrics declining since 1945!
     
    No, I'm going to blame them for not rejecting those values. If anything, they're reinforcing them with their tattoos.

    Tattoos! On girls!!


    Tattoos from my previous SJW life...

    https://i.pinimg.com/474x/8a/6b/87/8a6b87a46b90e37523f55d7bf88e1f50.jpg

    https://i.redd.it/zcbwnj2ripjz.jpg


    https://i.imgur.com/SJYXDoJ.jpg


    https://thetransformedwife.com/wp-content/uploads/2018/07/virgin.jpg

    A great smile and healthily tanned skin also help … the virgin prerequisite is waivable with appropriate testing.

    • Replies: @Reg Cæsar

    A great smile and healthily tanned skin also help … the virgin prerequisite is waivable with appropriate testing.
     
    Everyman is entitled to one virgin, and no man to two.

    However, some of us prefer a healthy pale.
  135. @Anonymousse
    It’s funny that he can look at data cooly on an explosive area like black average IQ but on this virus thing he’s completely indistinguishable from a wine aunt posting #STAYTHEF*#%HOME on facebook.

    Worse maybe, because he’s numerate and smart enough to understand the implications here AND he’s aware of the evidence... but he’s still every bit as committed to the hysterical and counterfactual narrative as your average Rachel Maddow viewer.

    Could be his own past health issues or possibly just the universal human need to avoid admitting past error?

    In any case that just won’t cut it... the DAILY price of continuing to play along and wink at this hysteria almost defies comprehension. No one gets a pass on being unserious about this thing anymore.

    “It’s funny that he can look at data cooly on an explosive area like black average IQ but on this virus thing he’s completely indistinguishable from a wine aunt posting #STAYTHEF*#%HOME on facebook.”

    On this particular topic, Mr. Sailer has been generally on point, contrary to your narrative.

    “Worse maybe, because he’s numerate and smart enough to understand the implications here AND he’s aware of the evidence… but he’s still every bit as committed to the hysterical and counterfactual narrative as your average Rachel Maddow viewer.”

    Most likely he is being his regular pattern recognizing self.

    “In any case that just won’t cut it… the DAILY price of continuing to play along and wink at this hysteria almost defies comprehension.”

    Covid-19 is real, not a hoax. Nothing hysterical about a pandemic in the least.

    • Replies: @Reg Cæsar

    wine aunt
     
    Those are the first two interesting words you've posted here of course, it turns out to be a current meme.


    https://i.kym-cdn.com/photos/images/facebook/001/531/810/77c.png


    https://meme.xyz/uploads/posts/t/l-23031-vodka-aunt-vs-wine-mom.jpg

  136. Actually, here’s some further proof of just how ridiculous those LA or Santa Clara infection rates seem to be…

    The NYT had an excellent article this morning discussing all the “excess deaths” in various places around the world:

    https://www.nytimes.com/interactive/2020/04/21/world/coronavirus-missing-deaths.html

    In the case of NYC, there were over 17K excess deaths in just a five week period, representing about 0.2% of the total population. So it appears that the coronavirus probably killed something like 0.2% of all the people there in little more than a month. Unless you believe that almost everyone in NYC was already infected several weeks, I think that tends to lower bound on IFC of about 0.5%.

    The LA and Santa Clara infection rates are just totally impossible for an IFC that high.

    • Replies: @The Alarmist
    On a long enough timeline the survival for everyone drops to zero.

    There are no "excess deaths," jusr premature or time-shifted deaths.

    But here's an interesting twist: COVID-19 apparently changes Chinese to Black.

    https://www.thesun.co.uk/news/11441792/wuhan-doctors-skin-after-coronavirus/

  137. @The Alarmist
    A great smile and healthily tanned skin also help ... the virgin prerequisite is waivable with appropriate testing.

    A great smile and healthily tanned skin also help … the virgin prerequisite is waivable with appropriate testing.

    Everyman is entitled to one virgin, and no man to two.

    However, some of us prefer a healthy pale.

  138. @Corvinus
    "It’s funny that he can look at data cooly on an explosive area like black average IQ but on this virus thing he’s completely indistinguishable from a wine aunt posting #STAYTHEF*#%HOME on facebook."

    On this particular topic, Mr. Sailer has been generally on point, contrary to your narrative.

    "Worse maybe, because he’s numerate and smart enough to understand the implications here AND he’s aware of the evidence… but he’s still every bit as committed to the hysterical and counterfactual narrative as your average Rachel Maddow viewer."

    Most likely he is being his regular pattern recognizing self.

    "In any case that just won’t cut it… the DAILY price of continuing to play along and wink at this hysteria almost defies comprehension."

    Covid-19 is real, not a hoax. Nothing hysterical about a pandemic in the least.

    wine aunt

    Those are the first two interesting words you’ve posted here of course, it turns out to be a current meme.


    • Replies: @Corvinus
    So why are you telling me your preferred mate?
  139. @Reg Cæsar

    wine aunt
     
    Those are the first two interesting words you've posted here of course, it turns out to be a current meme.


    https://i.kym-cdn.com/photos/images/facebook/001/531/810/77c.png


    https://meme.xyz/uploads/posts/t/l-23031-vodka-aunt-vs-wine-mom.jpg

    So why are you telling me your preferred mate?

    • Replies: @Reg Cæsar
    If you're trying to engage in witty banter, you'll have to up your game. Consult with Truth.
  140. @Reg Cæsar

    All I can say is: young people will hate, hate, hate Boomers & Gen Xrs more than ever. These creepy/duplicitous people have ruined the future for Millennials and Gen Z, world-wide. Hate is in the air, and this time, young people are gonna revolt.
     
    By "marrying" someone of the same sex?

    Is there any social metric on which we have improved, or turned around, since 1945? All I can think of is far fewer boys are named Junior.

    No, Reg! I am referring to the future economic lives of people in their twenties. After 2008, this group gets another horrible set-back. This is why they want socialism…well, the ones with Democrat parents.

    And, you will be happy to know that Gen Z is a lot more Conservative than the Millennial group. They are very similar to the late Boomers like me, who rejected the lame Hippie Culture – we were pilloried then, and called Preppies (in HS) and Yuppies once working in the early 80’s.

    Socially, I agree; a lot of losers/identity freaks are in their 20’s. But, the Conservative ones do not have tacky tattoos or need to wear their insecurity on them, or claim victimhood over everything.

    So glad my gorgeous sons avoided all ink and piercings. Tattoos (the leeching of the metals/dyes into the pancreas) will eventually cause pancreatic cancer which many people are unaware of.

  141. @Ron Unz
    Actually, here's some further proof of just how ridiculous those LA or Santa Clara infection rates seem to be...

    The NYT had an excellent article this morning discussing all the "excess deaths" in various places around the world:

    https://www.nytimes.com/interactive/2020/04/21/world/coronavirus-missing-deaths.html

    In the case of NYC, there were over 17K excess deaths in just a five week period, representing about 0.2% of the total population. So it appears that the coronavirus probably killed something like 0.2% of all the people there in little more than a month. Unless you believe that almost everyone in NYC was already infected several weeks, I think that tends to lower bound on IFC of about 0.5%.

    The LA and Santa Clara infection rates are just totally impossible for an IFC that high.

    On a long enough timeline the survival for everyone drops to zero.

    There are no “excess deaths,” jusr premature or time-shifted deaths.

    But here’s an interesting twist: COVID-19 apparently changes Chinese to Black.

    https://www.thesun.co.uk/news/11441792/wuhan-doctors-skin-after-coronavirus/

    • Replies: @Ron Unz

    On a long enough timeline the survival for everyone drops to zero.

    There are no “excess deaths,” jusr premature or time-shifted deaths.
     
    Absolutely true! If the Bubonic Plague breaks out and everyone ignores the matter so that it soon kills 45 million Americans...well, they would have all eventually died anyway...
  142. @Corvinus
    So why are you telling me your preferred mate?

    If you’re trying to engage in witty banter, you’ll have to up your game. Consult with Truth.

  143. @The Alarmist
    On a long enough timeline the survival for everyone drops to zero.

    There are no "excess deaths," jusr premature or time-shifted deaths.

    But here's an interesting twist: COVID-19 apparently changes Chinese to Black.

    https://www.thesun.co.uk/news/11441792/wuhan-doctors-skin-after-coronavirus/

    On a long enough timeline the survival for everyone drops to zero.

    There are no “excess deaths,” jusr premature or time-shifted deaths.

    Absolutely true! If the Bubonic Plague breaks out and everyone ignores the matter so that it soon kills 45 million Americans…well, they would have all eventually died anyway…

    • Agree: Dissident
    • Replies: @The Alarmist
    Bubonic Plague in the Middle Ages was estimated to have killed somwhere between 30% to 60% of Europe's population, but that was with little to no effective measures to stop it because those folks had absolutely no idea what they were dealing with. Today, without treatment, it kills 80% of those who contract it within eight days. That is indeed scary. Fortunately, with treatment, the CFR is still scary at 11%, but manageable, and outbreaks are rare because we do know what we are dealing with.

    The COVID-19 numbers as we all first came to hear them suggested a CFR of maybe 2% to 5%, but we also knew that we had no idea what the real denominator might be because the only people being tested were those who presented suspect symptoms. But we had some clue what we were up against, and we knew what basic measures might slow transmission. We also had some idea of who might be most vulnerable, despite the best efforts of the MSM to confuse the discussion by trumpeting the relatively small group of "healthy" people who might have been killed by COVID-19. But hey, flu and pneumonia kill some young people too.

    I would never think doing nothing is appropriate; I do think the Swedes have taken the most appropriate and most adult choice.

    I will say that a look backward at this in a year or so, if not sooner, will make for a great American Pravda feature.
  144. @Ron Unz

    On a long enough timeline the survival for everyone drops to zero.

    There are no “excess deaths,” jusr premature or time-shifted deaths.
     
    Absolutely true! If the Bubonic Plague breaks out and everyone ignores the matter so that it soon kills 45 million Americans...well, they would have all eventually died anyway...

    Bubonic Plague in the Middle Ages was estimated to have killed somwhere between 30% to 60% of Europe’s population, but that was with little to no effective measures to stop it because those folks had absolutely no idea what they were dealing with. Today, without treatment, it kills 80% of those who contract it within eight days. That is indeed scary. Fortunately, with treatment, the CFR is still scary at 11%, but manageable, and outbreaks are rare because we do know what we are dealing with.

    The COVID-19 numbers as we all first came to hear them suggested a CFR of maybe 2% to 5%, but we also knew that we had no idea what the real denominator might be because the only people being tested were those who presented suspect symptoms. But we had some clue what we were up against, and we knew what basic measures might slow transmission. We also had some idea of who might be most vulnerable, despite the best efforts of the MSM to confuse the discussion by trumpeting the relatively small group of “healthy” people who might have been killed by COVID-19. But hey, flu and pneumonia kill some young people too.

    I would never think doing nothing is appropriate; I do think the Swedes have taken the most appropriate and most adult choice.

    I will say that a look backward at this in a year or so, if not sooner, will make for a great American Pravda feature.

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