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Urban Landlords Are Paying the Price for the Racial Reckoning
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This is from Apartment List’s National Rent Report. Rent went up a record 18% in 2021, although I doubt if landlords are doing all that well due to eviction freezes.

On the rising rents side, New York City went up so much to make up for the sharp fall in rents in 2020 following NYC’s horrific March 2020 death wave:

What differentiates New York City from most other cities at the top of this list is that the rapid growth of the past year has mostly served to offset a sharp decline in rents during the first year of the pandemic. Even after the astronomical growth of the past 12 months, rents in NYC are now just 4.4 percent higher than they were in March 2020. In contrast, Tampa never experienced a meaningful decline in rents at the start of the pandemic, and rents there are now 34.3 percent higher than they were in March 2020.

With 2021 data, I’ve taken to comparing it to 2019 rather than to 2020.

Most of the other places with rapidly rising rents are fairly suburban and/or mooted alternatives to Silicon Valley, such as Austin, Miami, and Boston. People appear to be moving toward lower murder rates, although that’s a general pattern over the last 50+ years, which is why, say, East St. Louis got so unpopular that nobody lives there anymore.

The places where rents are going up the slowest tend to be heavily black and have already high or rising murder rates. For example, Minneapolis and Portland used to be pretty safe places, but local politicians tolerated so much anarchy there during 2020 that 2021 murders in both were at least twice 2019 murders.

Murder rates went up all over the country during the racial reckoning, but a 30% increase in an already murder prone heavily black city like St. Louis or Detroit is worse in an absolute sense of incremental dead bodies than a similar increase in Boston or Austin.

One conspiracy theory is that the Real Estate Interests carefully plotted the 2020 racial reckoning riots in order to launch some unspecified Underwear Gnomes business plan:

  1. Stoke riot and murder in the cities.
  2. Profit!

Obviously, if I understood genius business strategies, I’d be rich, but I’m not so I don’t. But still, making rents in Oakland, with its history of black radicalism and high crime rates, 17.5% lower relative to the country as a whole over the course of 2021 sounds like a pretty expensive Step 2.

 
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  1. It’s all a question of where in Oakland, of course.

    Otherwise, Fremont, Ca being that low is interesting. I lived there back at the end of the Eighties. Horrifically anodyne, but it’s hard to see anything going wrong. I wonder what’s up?

    …or down, I suppose. It did become known as ‘Little Kabul’ at some point. Is there a connection?

    • Replies: @Farenheit
    @Colin Wright

    Reporting from Fremont, a couple things going on at the same time
    last couple of years, relative/relational effect unknown.

    -road warrioresqe RV homeless camps popping up everywhere (and a lack of political will to do anything about it)
    -every last conceivable plot of land being built out with "stack and pack" apartments (H1-B housing, if you will)
    -high number of laptop class workers bailing during the plague
    -low grade bleed over of Union City/Hayward type "affirming furthering fair housing" people


    Which is leading to not so low grade white flight, which results in "single family housing" magically becoming "multi-generational housing".

    Taken all together, perhaps it's finally moderating rents here.

    Replies: @International Jew

    , @International Jew
    @Colin Wright

    "Little Kabul" was a thing there in the 80s because Fremont was still such an overwhelmingly American city that Afghanis were noticeable. Today, Afghanis are about the whitest people there. Fremont is now overwhelmingly Indian and Chinese.

    (I worked there before Covid and still have friends who live there.)

    Replies: @Reg Cæsar

    , @Bardon Kaldlan
    @Colin Wright

    Amy Schneider got mugged in Oaktown. I doubt the perps recognized,uhm,her.

    Replies: @AceDeuce

  2. Can anyone here offer an opinion on Tampa, Florida? Good place to live?

    • Replies: @Bill
    @JohnnyWalker123

    If you don't mind blazing hot and humid, it's very nice. Sarasota is even nicer. Florida is divided into three parts. The east is part of New York. The west is part of the Midwest. The north and much of the interior are part of the South.

    Replies: @Anon, @Brutusale, @The Germ Theory of Disease, @Bill Jones

    , @Veteran Aryan
    @JohnnyWalker123

    It has a MLK Boulevard. But it also has lavish gated private communities. Just like everywhere else. So I guess it depends on how you feel about swamp and beach.

    , @Anthony Aaron
    @JohnnyWalker123

    My sister and her husband lived there until 2018 … high crime and all that goes with it drove them out of the Tampa/St. Petersburg area …

    FWIW …

    , @Jim Christian
    @JohnnyWalker123

    Go out to New Port Richey, Pasco County Florida. White, conservative, strong police agencies. Outside Tampa on the Gulf, it's ideal. Hot for sure May through September, it's quite temperate the rest of the year. It's where I snowbird, anyway.

    Replies: @Brutusale

    , @Brutusale
    @JohnnyWalker123

    Davis Islands, NICE! It's where I'd want to live if I were in Tampa.
    https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Davis_Islands_(Tampa)
    College Hill, not so much.
    https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/College_Hill_(Tampa)

    My College Hill story: back in the 90s my ex and I we visiting my parents, residents of a coastal community about 25 miles north of Tampa. One Saturday evening we decided to visit Ybor City, a funky tourist area in the old Cuban district of Tampa and home to the iconic Columbia Restaurant. As I was driving, my dad piped up from the back seat that he thought we missed the highway exit for Ybor and that I should get off at the next exit and we'll backtrack, which I did. We were making our way up a main thoroughfare when my mom asked, "Did that sign just say College Hill?". Then I heard her hit the door lock.

    The next two miles were just like a gangster rap video. I didn't stop for a red light or a stop sign until I saw a white face!

    The Palma Ceia neighborhood is nice. My parents used to have friends there. Carrollwood is a lovely older part of the city.

    Replies: @JohnnyWalker123

    , @Known Fact
    @JohnnyWalker123

    Are you retiring or at some career point? I'd try someplace smaller up or down the Gulf Coast from the Tampa sprawl unless you need a lot of stimulation

    Replies: @JohnnyWalker123

    , @Bardon Kaldlan
    @JohnnyWalker123

    Nice place,but I can never go back there. Shot a man. Just to watch him die.

    Replies: @Michaeloh

    , @Reg Cæsar
    @JohnnyWalker123


    Can anyone here offer an opinion on Tampa, Florida? Good place to live?
     
    They might see snow this weekend:


    ‘So you’re telling me there’s a chance’: Snow flurries possible this weekend in Tampa Bay?


    The State Fair starts in a couple of weeks. Check out Cracker Country on how to live cheap in the sticks.


    https://www.crackercountry.org/



    https://assets.simpleviewinc.com/simpleview/image/fetch/c_fill,h_500,q_90/https://assets.simpleviewinc.com/simpleview/image/upload/crm/tampabay/Girl-making-butter0_7e3fa926-5056-a36a-08a99778793c65ac.jpg
  3. “if I understood genius business strategies, I’d be rich, but I’m not so I don’t.”

    https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Modus_tollens

    • Replies: @ScarletNumber
    @Mark Spahn (West Seneca, NY)

    Apparently Steve was out sick the day they taught this at UCLA

    Replies: @Intelligent Dasein, @Muggles

  4. Wouldn’t this otherwise valuable urban land – already blighted by violence and the chronically violence-prone – collapse in value as the cities became all-but battle zones? Wouldn’t it be prudent for wise investors to just ‘doze what has become near-rubble anyway? Land increases in value. Asians and self-hating honkie’s move in. The sweet times are back.

    This is your own much-cited theory of real estate chaos, Mr. Sailer. Delving back into your own work – we can expect much of the development money to be Chinese. Come on, man.

    • Replies: @Steve Sailer
    @San Fernando Curt

    How is this theory working out in East St. Louis?

    Detroit has actually rebounded a little. But there was that 50 year spell between the 1967 riot and the recent rebound. That's kind of a long time to wait for the payoff.

    Replies: @San Fernando Curt, @ArthurBiggs

    , @Mr. Anon
    @San Fernando Curt


    Wouldn’t this otherwise valuable urban land – already blighted by violence and the chronically violence-prone – collapse in value as the cities became all-but battle zones?
     
    Not if governments put into place policies that make it much more expensive for people to live in rural or suburban areas. Policies like higher fuel prices, individual carbon alotments, etc.
    , @Mike Tre
    @San Fernando Curt

    "Wouldn’t this otherwise valuable urban land – already blighted by violence and the chronically violence-prone – collapse in value as the cities became all-but battle zones? Wouldn’t it be prudent for wise investors to just ‘doze what has become near-rubble anyway? Land increases in value. Asians and self-hating honkie’s move in. The sweet times are back."

    this is similar to what Richie Daley did in Chicago from the 1989 - 2011. He moved the housing project occupying negroes out into the suburbs with the help of section 8 vouchers, let his investor developer buddies purchase the property, bulldoze it, throw up SWPL retail and condos. I've said plenty of times that my wife's suburb Park Forest went from a middle of the middle class community to a negro occupied wasteland within the span of a single generation.

    Corporate landlords continue to construct high density "luxury apartments" in the more posh townships outside of Chicago. Orland Park used to be the pinnacle of south Chicago suburban living, and it and the surrounding towns are now infested. The Orland Park mall is on its way to becoming the Ford City mall.

    Naperville - the jewel of the Western suburbs is busy securing its own demise with ongoing construction of these high density apartment complexes and moving negroes from the city into them.



    The

  5. Anonymous[102] • Disclaimer says:

    The big landlords are doing great, just like all of the big woke corporations. Steve, if you want to understand what’s going on in a way that ties all these strange and dystopic occurrences of the current year together (occurrences that, respectfully, seem to befuddle you more than other people with your talent and perspicacity), I suggest you start with Blackrock, going (at least) back to the repo crisis in September 2019 that re-triggered (of necessity) the stealth QE that had been put on hold for several years. That QE was not widely broadcast until it was extended indefinitely (permanently?) and expanded unprecedentedly (without any opposition) immediately after the Covid panic began in March 2020, a few days after which, Blackrock’s outsized role in managing the business was formally announced, to the surprise of only those who don’t closely follow the massive-scale operations and subterfuges the international banking elite make use of in furtherance of their further enrichment and self-aggrandizing social agendas.

    If I may offer one more related piece of constructive criticism, a possible recent blindspot I sense in your analyses of current events concerns things that only seem disparate on their face (eg the behind-the-scenes financial shenanigans post-2008, the post-2012 shift to wokeness propaganda, the “racial wreckoning,” “World War T,” “invade the world invite the world” policies, global inflation and supply chain crises, the “green agenda” ostensibly to address climate change, the bizarrely coordinated global push for totalitarian measures following the Covid release etc) are actually easily explained by the now incontrovertible evidence of carefully planned collusion between Zionist and globalist entities (ie the Davos anti-nationalists, the mushroom like NGO’s, “philanthropic” foundations, key military intelligence agencies, and captured government players and node-institutions). A good place to start is this guy’s twitter feed. Plenty of threads exposing the corruption between players you probably aren’t aware of:
    https://mobile.twitter.com/JesseMatchey

    • Thanks: Almost Missouri
    • Replies: @Gabe Ruth
    @Anonymous

    TY, been looking for these droids a long time.

  6. @San Fernando Curt
    Wouldn't this otherwise valuable urban land - already blighted by violence and the chronically violence-prone - collapse in value as the cities became all-but battle zones? Wouldn't it be prudent for wise investors to just 'doze what has become near-rubble anyway? Land increases in value. Asians and self-hating honkie's move in. The sweet times are back.

    This is your own much-cited theory of real estate chaos, Mr. Sailer. Delving back into your own work - we can expect much of the development money to be Chinese. Come on, man.

    Replies: @Steve Sailer, @Mr. Anon, @Mike Tre

    How is this theory working out in East St. Louis?

    Detroit has actually rebounded a little. But there was that 50 year spell between the 1967 riot and the recent rebound. That’s kind of a long time to wait for the payoff.

    • Replies: @San Fernando Curt
    @Steve Sailer

    Obviously, there is a long game afoot.

    Replies: @bigdicknick

    , @ArthurBiggs
    @Steve Sailer

    The west side of Chicago is starting to rebound. It has only taken about 75 years and billions of dollars in investment to make it appealing to young white professionals. It should be fully gentrified in another 100 to 150 years and a few trillion dollars more.

  7. anon[411] • Disclaimer says:

    Rents are only part of the equation for landlords. Commercial property values are a function of A) rents, and B) the rent multiples that properties sell for. (In real estate, the term is “cap rate”, which is the inverse of a P/E ratio.)

    Over the past year, multifamily cap rates have declined (i.e. rent multiples have risen) to levels previously considered ludicrous. In most places in the US, right now is a good time to be a landlord. You can sell your properties for a windfall if you want to walk away.

    I don’t own any commercial real estate, but I work in a related field so I know people who do at a fairly large scale. As I understand it, the eviction moratoriums have had different effects in different places. In my area the government has reimbursed landlords for some of the lost rent from tenants who stopped paying during COVID. And a lot of renters were flush with cash from all of the helicopter money, so they stayed current on rent more than you might have expected.

    The true real estate losers of the past two years may turn out to be owners of office, not apartment, buildings. These owners haven’t lost much of anything yet because their tenants sign long-term leases. Loads of massive downtown office buildings generated 98% rent collections even as they were maybe 10% physically occupied while the tenants’ employees worked from home. But now that work-from-home is known to work reasonably well for extended periods, the longer-term future of office real estate is very uncertain.

    • Agree: Jim Don Bob
    • Thanks: ic1000
    • Replies: @Barnard
    @anon

    Smaller retail and office spaces are likely to have the worst recovery. A significant number of people simply closed up shop and turned in their keys. Good luck collecting the remaining years of rent they own from their LLC. Even for those that signed a personal guarantee good luck collecting. There was a lot of rental assistance out there for apartment tenants, some of the processing was slow but anyone who tried to get it could. The tenants who stuck it to mom and pop landlords just because they could get away with it are scum.

    , @prosa123
    @anon

    But now that work-from-home is known to work reasonably well for extended periods, the longer-term future of office real estate is very uncertain.

    Unless the government actually does something and bans it.

  8. @Colin Wright
    It's all a question of where in Oakland, of course.

    Otherwise, Fremont, Ca being that low is interesting. I lived there back at the end of the Eighties. Horrifically anodyne, but it's hard to see anything going wrong. I wonder what's up?

    ...or down, I suppose. It did become known as 'Little Kabul' at some point. Is there a connection?

    Replies: @Farenheit, @International Jew, @Bardon Kaldlan

    Reporting from Fremont, a couple things going on at the same time
    last couple of years, relative/relational effect unknown.

    -road warrioresqe RV homeless camps popping up everywhere (and a lack of political will to do anything about it)
    -every last conceivable plot of land being built out with “stack and pack” apartments (H1-B housing, if you will)
    -high number of laptop class workers bailing during the plague
    -low grade bleed over of Union City/Hayward type “affirming furthering fair housing” people

    Which is leading to not so low grade white flight, which results in “single family housing” magically becoming “multi-generational housing”.

    Taken all together, perhaps it’s finally moderating rents here.

    • Thanks: Colin Wright
    • Replies: @International Jew
    @Farenheit


    road warrioresqe RV homeless camps popping up everywhere
     
    Where in particular? (I haven't been back since Covid but I'm interested.)

    Replies: @Farenheit

  9. Obviously, if I understood genius business strategies, I’d be rich, but I’m not so I don’t.

    Oscar Gamble couldn’t have said it any better.

  10. Cities with good weather and favorable demographic mix are where to be. Cold weather cities that lost most of their industrial jobs not so much, particularly if you don’t have the skills or education to make an upper middle class living.

    Some of the cities on the low rent growth chart above have been stagnant for awhile already, whereas places like Minneapolis (despite the weather) and Portland shot themselves in the foot repeatedly over the last couple of years and I don’t think it’s sunk in for most of the population just what they’ve done and how hard it will be to reverse, based on my conversations with relatives in the Twin Cities.

    Sort of surprising to see Madison on the list, but I would guess with a huge share of its renter class being college students, the somewhat lagging rent growth is due to this school being more averse to in-person instruction due to Covid and many students (or more precisely their parents) deciding not to sign up for leases for the 202o-2021 school year.

    • Replies: @Reg Cæsar
    @Arclight


    Cities with good weather and favorable demographic mix are where to be.
     
    Good luck finding the two together. Vermin like warmth.



    https://m.youtube.com/watch?v=MrRAO_vG_K4
    , @JMcG
    @Arclight

    The economics of air conditioning are going to be interesting as we go down the renewable rabbit hole.

    Replies: @Muggles

  11. @Steve Sailer
    @San Fernando Curt

    How is this theory working out in East St. Louis?

    Detroit has actually rebounded a little. But there was that 50 year spell between the 1967 riot and the recent rebound. That's kind of a long time to wait for the payoff.

    Replies: @San Fernando Curt, @ArthurBiggs

    Obviously, there is a long game afoot.

    • Replies: @bigdicknick
    @San Fernando Curt

    yeah it's called the great replacement and this is just a side effect they didn't think about.

  12. That list really should be by county or metro area. On the fast growth side, the Tampa area got 2 entries, the Las Vegas metro area 4, and Maricopa County, AZ (Phoenix) got 6! (Out of 20.) The entries are too granular to tell us anything that useful on a national level.

  13. I’ve heard that the low vacancy rate is due to owners renting short-term, e.g. AirBnB.

    • Replies: @Barnard
    @Abolish_public_education

    I doubt that would be the cause of low vacancy in most places. Landlords would have to furnish the units and be in an area with high enough AirBNB demand to make that worth the hassle.

  14. @JohnnyWalker123
    Can anyone here offer an opinion on Tampa, Florida? Good place to live?

    Replies: @Bill, @Veteran Aryan, @Anthony Aaron, @Jim Christian, @Brutusale, @Known Fact, @Bardon Kaldlan, @Reg Cæsar

    If you don’t mind blazing hot and humid, it’s very nice. Sarasota is even nicer. Florida is divided into three parts. The east is part of New York. The west is part of the Midwest. The north and much of the interior are part of the South.

    • Thanks: JohnnyWalker123
    • Replies: @Anon
    @Bill

    Sarasota is getting filled up, maybe North Port, Port Charlotte (still looks like 1950’s I.e. Punta Gorda airport). South East Coast looking like Tijuana on a bad day.

    , @Brutusale
    @Bill

    The Gulf coast from Tampa down is snowbird country, not just Midwesterners. Dunedin is Little Toronto; Fort Myers and Naples are full of Massholes. North of Tampa you have God's Waiting Room (Hernando and Pasco counties are #1 and #2 in the country for median age) and not much else until you hit the Redneck Riviera, the Panhandle, which has some of the best beaches in the country.

    The heat and humidity are oppressive, but there are very few places in Florida without thermonuclear air conditioning. My brother got married in Tampa on a Labor Day weekend and the temperature was 94 with 100% humidity. The A/C was such that I didn't take off my tuxedo jacket the whole day.

    Replies: @JMcG, @Muggles

    , @The Germ Theory of Disease
    @Bill

    "Florida is divided into three parts."

    Like omnia Gallia?

    Sorry, sometimes the schoolboy in me can't help it.

    Replies: @Bridgeport_IPA

    , @Bill Jones
    @Bill

    What a great summary, thanks for that.

  15. One conspiracy theory is that the Real Estate Interests carefully plotted the 2020 racial reckoning riots in order to launch some unspecified Underwear Gnomes business plan:

    Stoke riot and murder in the cities.
    Profit!

    Obviously, if I understood genius business strategies, I’d be rich, but I’m not so I don’t. But still, making rents in Oakland, with its history of black radicalism and high crime rates, 17.5% lower relative to the country as a whole over the course of 2021 sounds like a pretty expensive Step 2.

    I don’t think the BLM inspired murder and looting fest of the last two years was plotted by real-estate interests, but I can see how the BLM and COVID policies of the last two years are aiding big corporate real-estate outfits like Blackrock. You make cities unliveable, drive down rents, and permit people to live rent-free for months on end, and you will drive small real-estate owners to sell at a discount. Then when big real-estate outfits have snapped up all that property, relegating many people to be renters, they use their political muscle to change the policies that made their fire-sale purchases possible.

    You’ll own nothing and you’ll be happy (or else). Believe them when they say it.

    • Replies: @Justvisiting
    @Mr. Anon


    I don’t think the BLM inspired murder and looting fest of the last two years was plotted by real-estate interests
     
    I always ask "who benefits".

    Luck is possible but planning and support is more likely.

    Big corporate support of BLM is a clue, not proof, but a clue.
  16. @San Fernando Curt
    Wouldn't this otherwise valuable urban land - already blighted by violence and the chronically violence-prone - collapse in value as the cities became all-but battle zones? Wouldn't it be prudent for wise investors to just 'doze what has become near-rubble anyway? Land increases in value. Asians and self-hating honkie's move in. The sweet times are back.

    This is your own much-cited theory of real estate chaos, Mr. Sailer. Delving back into your own work - we can expect much of the development money to be Chinese. Come on, man.

    Replies: @Steve Sailer, @Mr. Anon, @Mike Tre

    Wouldn’t this otherwise valuable urban land – already blighted by violence and the chronically violence-prone – collapse in value as the cities became all-but battle zones?

    Not if governments put into place policies that make it much more expensive for people to live in rural or suburban areas. Policies like higher fuel prices, individual carbon alotments, etc.

  17. @JohnnyWalker123
    Can anyone here offer an opinion on Tampa, Florida? Good place to live?

    Replies: @Bill, @Veteran Aryan, @Anthony Aaron, @Jim Christian, @Brutusale, @Known Fact, @Bardon Kaldlan, @Reg Cæsar

    It has a MLK Boulevard. But it also has lavish gated private communities. Just like everywhere else. So I guess it depends on how you feel about swamp and beach.

  18. @Arclight
    Cities with good weather and favorable demographic mix are where to be. Cold weather cities that lost most of their industrial jobs not so much, particularly if you don't have the skills or education to make an upper middle class living.

    Some of the cities on the low rent growth chart above have been stagnant for awhile already, whereas places like Minneapolis (despite the weather) and Portland shot themselves in the foot repeatedly over the last couple of years and I don't think it's sunk in for most of the population just what they've done and how hard it will be to reverse, based on my conversations with relatives in the Twin Cities.

    Sort of surprising to see Madison on the list, but I would guess with a huge share of its renter class being college students, the somewhat lagging rent growth is due to this school being more averse to in-person instruction due to Covid and many students (or more precisely their parents) deciding not to sign up for leases for the 202o-2021 school year.

    Replies: @Reg Cæsar, @JMcG

    Cities with good weather and favorable demographic mix are where to be.

    Good luck finding the two together. Vermin like warmth.

    • Agree: Redneck farmer
  19. @JohnnyWalker123
    Can anyone here offer an opinion on Tampa, Florida? Good place to live?

    Replies: @Bill, @Veteran Aryan, @Anthony Aaron, @Jim Christian, @Brutusale, @Known Fact, @Bardon Kaldlan, @Reg Cæsar

    My sister and her husband lived there until 2018 … high crime and all that goes with it drove them out of the Tampa/St. Petersburg area …

    FWIW …

  20. Most of the other places with rapidly rising rents are fairly suburban and/or mooted alternatives to Silicon Valley, such as Austin, Miami, and Boston.

    I disagree about that framing. I don’t think their suburban status or “mooted alternative to SV” is the primary factor.

    If you look at the top 20, most of them tend to be sunbelt states like Arizona, Nevada or Florida. Basically most gainers have high proportion of Latinx and lower proportion of blacks (compared to the losers). Tampa is a relative outlier in that regard, but the general pattern holds.

    Unz has written many years ago how Latinx have lower crime rates, so there could be a link to the post-2020 murder rampage, as people seek safer alternatives. The gainers also have pleasant weather, warmth and lots of sun. What’s not to like?

    NYC’s #1 position is misleading since rents are just 4.4% higher since March 2020. The 2021 gains mostly offset earlier declines in 2020. Most others increased 20-30% over the same two years.

    • Replies: @AndrewR
    @Thulean Friend

    Sailer please ban him for writing "Latinx" unironically

    Replies: @tyrone

  21. @Steve Sailer
    @San Fernando Curt

    How is this theory working out in East St. Louis?

    Detroit has actually rebounded a little. But there was that 50 year spell between the 1967 riot and the recent rebound. That's kind of a long time to wait for the payoff.

    Replies: @San Fernando Curt, @ArthurBiggs

    The west side of Chicago is starting to rebound. It has only taken about 75 years and billions of dollars in investment to make it appealing to young white professionals. It should be fully gentrified in another 100 to 150 years and a few trillion dollars more.

    • Agree: JimDandy
    • Thanks: Hangnail Hans
  22. Hard to generate much sympathy for urban landlords.

    • Agree: Gordo
    • Replies: @Reg Cæsar
    @Ghost of Bull Moose


    Hard to generate much sympathy for urban landlords.
     
    My mother grew up in the same neighborhood, at the same time, as Geraldine Ferraro. Her reaction to Geraldine's 1984 nomination?

    "She's married to a slumlord!!"
    , @Muse
    @Ghost of Bull Moose

    Urban landlords provide a service at a relatively low cost to the government and you the taxpayer that has to pay for the governments largesse via urban housing programs. Most of tenants cannot afford and are not able to buy, maintain or manage their own housing. I you believe that they should be provided housing (I do not), then somebody has to do the job. It costs less to have a slumlord do this than your local, corrupt, unionized and mismanaged local housing authority. In addition to the malaise from Covid, I suspect that some of the low rent growth is because section 8 rates are fixed by the government and moves by diktat, and because marginal earners who might be able to pay more are trying to get out now that these places have become even more lawless.

    It is simply a privatized section 8 business. I knew several relatively wealthy guys that made a lot of money in this business when I was living on the south side of Chicago for 15 years. Like drug dealing, the return on capital invested is higher than other investments, and it provides a business with favorable tax benefits and well paying jobs for you and your extended family, but it is difficult and dangerous work.

    For your section 8 clients the government pays a portion or all of the rent to you, so that reduces your cost and danger of collecting rent, as well as write offs for non-payment. But you still have to maintain and show the places, and that means you have to alway carry heat when you are in the neighborhood.

    The son of one of the guys I knew was murdured trying to collect rent in the south deering neighborhood, a forgotten and horribly dangerous neighborhood on the far south east side.

    I don’t know how leveraged he was, but he probably managed and owned between 10 and 20 million dollars worth of assets.

  23. Nonetheless, the 2020 racial reckoning absolutely was carefully plotted, not only by George Soros–but he definitely is intent on turning America’s cities into the kinds of places people want to move out of. But I’m sure not going to spout theories about why and get made fun of. I’m sensitive. Also, I don’t really have any good theories about why, and I can’t seem to find anyone who does.

  24. I’m telling you, the best places to live are where New York snobs would never go – Oklahoma, Missouri, Arkansas, Kansas. Homes are cheap, people are real, hospitals and Starbucks are the same as everywhere else. You just need to be close enough to a mid-size city to get high speed internet. If you have coffee and an internet connection, you have all that civilization has to offer.
    You don’t need fancy beaches or mountains either. Every landscape has something to love – appreciate what is at hand.
    Alternatively, you should live where you were raised. Were you born a New Yorker? Then be proud, stay in New York, and fight for your rights, your land and your people.

    • Agree: AceDeuce, Bernie
    • Replies: @Reg Cæsar
    @rebel yell


    where New York snobs would never go – Oklahoma, Missouri, Arkansas, Kansas. Homes are cheap, people are real, hospitals and Starbucks are the same as everywhere else.
     
    That's true of Upstate as well, and (except for cities you can count on one hand) it's much whiter. Fewer tornadoes, too.

    Why would you move to diversity?

    Replies: @Almost Missouri

    , @Charon
    @rebel yell


    If you have coffee and an internet connection, you have all that civilization has to offer.

     

    Performing Arts: symphony, recitals, opera, theater, concerts, dance. Sports: choose your favorites. Advanced medical services. Fine-dining restaurants. Museums. Historical sites. Social clubs, parties. And so on. Yeah, I guess you could watch someone eating at a good restaurant on YouTube.

    You don’t need fancy beaches or mountains either. Every landscape has something to love – appreciate what is at hand.
     
    I hate flat landscapes. They're boring and stupid. They tend to attract boring and stupid people.

    Replies: @Anon, @Elmer T. Jones, @JMcG, @Reg Cæsar

  25. @rebel yell
    I'm telling you, the best places to live are where New York snobs would never go - Oklahoma, Missouri, Arkansas, Kansas. Homes are cheap, people are real, hospitals and Starbucks are the same as everywhere else. You just need to be close enough to a mid-size city to get high speed internet. If you have coffee and an internet connection, you have all that civilization has to offer.
    You don't need fancy beaches or mountains either. Every landscape has something to love - appreciate what is at hand.
    Alternatively, you should live where you were raised. Were you born a New Yorker? Then be proud, stay in New York, and fight for your rights, your land and your people.

    Replies: @Reg Cæsar, @Charon

    where New York snobs would never go – Oklahoma, Missouri, Arkansas, Kansas. Homes are cheap, people are real, hospitals and Starbucks are the same as everywhere else.

    That’s true of Upstate as well, and (except for cities you can count on one hand) it’s much whiter. Fewer tornadoes, too.

    Why would you move to diversity?

    • Replies: @Almost Missouri
    @Reg Cæsar


    Why would you move to diversity?
     
    1) To make money.

    2) To find a spouse.

    At least that's what I see people doing.

    Note that they're not moving to diversity to do that. They're moving to concentrated population/cultural centers to do that. Those places tend to have a lot of diversity though, so it might look like they're moving to diversity.

    Replies: @Prof. Woland

  26. @Ghost of Bull Moose
    Hard to generate much sympathy for urban landlords.

    Replies: @Reg Cæsar, @Muse

    Hard to generate much sympathy for urban landlords.

    My mother grew up in the same neighborhood, at the same time, as Geraldine Ferraro. Her reaction to Geraldine’s 1984 nomination?

    “She’s married to a slumlord!!”

    • LOL: Rosie
  27. @rebel yell
    I'm telling you, the best places to live are where New York snobs would never go - Oklahoma, Missouri, Arkansas, Kansas. Homes are cheap, people are real, hospitals and Starbucks are the same as everywhere else. You just need to be close enough to a mid-size city to get high speed internet. If you have coffee and an internet connection, you have all that civilization has to offer.
    You don't need fancy beaches or mountains either. Every landscape has something to love - appreciate what is at hand.
    Alternatively, you should live where you were raised. Were you born a New Yorker? Then be proud, stay in New York, and fight for your rights, your land and your people.

    Replies: @Reg Cæsar, @Charon

    If you have coffee and an internet connection, you have all that civilization has to offer.

    Performing Arts: symphony, recitals, opera, theater, concerts, dance. Sports: choose your favorites. Advanced medical services. Fine-dining restaurants. Museums. Historical sites. Social clubs, parties. And so on. Yeah, I guess you could watch someone eating at a good restaurant on YouTube.

    You don’t need fancy beaches or mountains either. Every landscape has something to love – appreciate what is at hand.

    I hate flat landscapes. They’re boring and stupid. They tend to attract boring and stupid people.

    • Replies: @Anon
    @Charon


    Performing Arts: symphony, recitals, opera, theater, concerts, dance. Sports: choose your favorites. Advanced medical services. Fine-dining restaurants. Museums. Historical sites. Social clubs, parties. And so on
     
    Very feminine priorities! I don't suppose you have any concern at all for the men in your life?

    I hate flat landscapes. They’re boring and stupid. They tend to attract boring and stupid people.
     
    Wow, spoken like an ignorant child. Some of us like the freedom to walk on stable footing. Some of us enjoy the 360 views of the great blue sky. And I assure you these landscapes attract the most creative, intelligent people. How else do you expect societies to build themselves on flat, rockless, treeless plains? Mountainous regions and forests attract stupid, uncreative, cowardly people who prefer to take the path of least resistance.
    , @Elmer T. Jones
    @Charon

    "Performing Arts: symphony, recitals, opera, theater, concerts, dance. Sports: choose your favorites. Advanced medical services. Fine-dining restaurants. Museums. Historical sites. Social clubs, parties. And so on."

    Interesting, interesting...

    , @JMcG
    @Charon

    Nothing is more stupid or boring than fine dining. Restaurants as restaurants have been around for what, 150 years? Hardly a key part of western civilization. Throwing away hundreds of dollars on 80.00 worth of food and wine prepared in a filthy kitchen by runny-nosed illegal immigrants show a remarkable lack of discernment.
    I’ll take Oklahoma any day.

    Replies: @prosa123

    , @Reg Cæsar
    @Charon


    I hate flat landscapes. They’re boring and stupid. They tend to attract boring and stupid people.
     
    Whereas mountains tend to attract stupid and terrifying people.

    Replies: @Justvisiting

  28. @Colin Wright
    It's all a question of where in Oakland, of course.

    Otherwise, Fremont, Ca being that low is interesting. I lived there back at the end of the Eighties. Horrifically anodyne, but it's hard to see anything going wrong. I wonder what's up?

    ...or down, I suppose. It did become known as 'Little Kabul' at some point. Is there a connection?

    Replies: @Farenheit, @International Jew, @Bardon Kaldlan

    “Little Kabul” was a thing there in the 80s because Fremont was still such an overwhelmingly American city that Afghanis were noticeable. Today, Afghanis are about the whitest people there. Fremont is now overwhelmingly Indian and Chinese.

    (I worked there before Covid and still have friends who live there.)

    • Replies: @Reg Cæsar
    @International Jew


    “Little Kabul” was a thing there in the 80s because Fremont was still such an overwhelmingly American city that Afghanis [sic] were noticeable.
     
    The first Afghan restaurant in the US was Caravan Serai in St Paul in 1962. Ironically, it closed for good during our original invasion, because the kitchen was flooded and it wasn't worth the cost to save. By then, there were several other Afghan eateries in the metro area. Some had belly dancers on the weekend.

    However, Afghans were definitely not noticeable in the area. That shows, as with That's, you can enjoy a foreign cuisine without everybody and his brother and his bacha/ladyboy coming over.

    The same city boasts the first Kurdish restaurant, as well: http://www.babanis.com/ Again, not a lot of Kurds to be seen.

    Replies: @International Jew

  29. “ I doubt if landlords are doing all that well due to eviction freezes.”

    1. Eviction bans’ impact was small and localized. Overall, rental nonpayment did not rise during covid.

    2. Again there are regional variations, but nationally rental property is worth about 35% more than in 2019.

    So landlords are doing very fine overall.

    Bad tenants are gradually becoming less of a problem due to credit reports and background checks. Very low vacancy means you can be picky with tenants as well.

    • Replies: @YetAnotherAnon
    @Pixo

    And long term landlords are doing great. There's a reason why you can't buy a 3 square mile ranch in Northern California for Neil Young 1969 money any more.

    I know someone who bought an isolated place in the English Lakes for 15k 40 years back and sold for a million.

    You need to cross over to the economist Michael Hudson's place at this fine site to understand why. It all ties in again with Affordable Family Formation.

    https://www.unz.com/mhudson/the-saker-interviews-michael-hudson-3/


    The Federal Reserve and Treasury painted the U.S. into a corner with its Quantitative Easing to save the banks and brokerage houses after 2008. The policy succeeded in supporting and even raising real estate prices, and providing arbitrage opportunities to borrow at low rates to buy higher-yielding stocks and bonds, vastly increasing the magnitude of financial wealth. This has been especially the case since the pandemic, creating an estimated trillion dollars in “capital gains” (including short term arbitrage) for the wealthiest One Percent.

    What seemed to be the financial death trap was the prospect of rising interest rates ending the free lunch of interest-dividend arbitrage, and easy mortgage money. The threat was to reverse the asset-price run-up. We already are seeing that in recent weeks as stocks plunged to reflect the rise in Treasury bond rates.

    But by now, 14 years after the Obama bailouts and QE rescue of insolvent banks, a new condition has emerged: a vast sum of private capital seeking to move out of the financial markets. Many of the most astute One Percent is taking their money and running – into private equity and real estate.

    The result is that housing prices are soaring as private capital is out-bidding owner-occupant home buyers. While the latter face rising mortgage-interest rates, private capital finds the likelihood for both current rental income and capital gains to be a much better bet than the stock and bond market. The result will not be a decline in real estate prices, but a decline in home-ownership rates as a shift to rental housing occurs. The financial class is becoming the new absentee landlord class.

    Lower stock prices will spur a similar private-capital wave of corporate takeovers, posturing as “rescuers” of the economy. The aim will be short-term asset stripping, of course (that is the business plan of private equity), but it will consolidate ownership in the hands of a financial elite. And to the extent that state and local budgets suffer from the downturn, sell-offs of public land and infrastructure also will transfer property and its rent-extracting opportunities into hands – not with borrowed credit but for all-cash, the cash that QE policy and tax favoritism has brought into being in the past 14 years.

    So, to the extent that there are bankruptcies, this will have the usual result: consolidation and concentration of wealth ownership. The non-financial economy’s structure is being transformed – under the slogan of individualistic free markets.
     

    The decline in rentals is a blip. We are returning to the days of the 1930s or before, when renting rather than ownership was the norm. The post-war settlement ended in the US around 1971, in the UK around 1979.

    In the UK a lot of City money is moving into farms on mountain or other marginal land - there's Green bucks in them thar hills.

    https://www.bbc.co.uk/news/uk-wales-58103603

    "Tree-planting: Why are large investment firms buying Welsh farms?"

  30. @Farenheit
    @Colin Wright

    Reporting from Fremont, a couple things going on at the same time
    last couple of years, relative/relational effect unknown.

    -road warrioresqe RV homeless camps popping up everywhere (and a lack of political will to do anything about it)
    -every last conceivable plot of land being built out with "stack and pack" apartments (H1-B housing, if you will)
    -high number of laptop class workers bailing during the plague
    -low grade bleed over of Union City/Hayward type "affirming furthering fair housing" people


    Which is leading to not so low grade white flight, which results in "single family housing" magically becoming "multi-generational housing".

    Taken all together, perhaps it's finally moderating rents here.

    Replies: @International Jew

    road warrioresqe RV homeless camps popping up everywhere

    Where in particular? (I haven’t been back since Covid but I’m interested.)

    • Replies: @Farenheit
    @International Jew

    IJ,

    If you're in the area, drive through Niles Canyon. At the beginning of the canyon there's a really nice park called Vallejo Mills. When I was a young buck my Boy Scout troop would have courts of honor there in the summer.

    Anyway, it now has about 30 ramshackle RVs parked there with piles of junk and trash strewn hither and yon. The city cleaned them out about a year ago when they first showed up, they came right back and the city's done nothing since.

    In southern Fremont, down near Tesla in the "warehouse district" there's these campground here and there as well.

    Replies: @danand

  31. Rent went up a record 18% in 2021, although I doubt if landlords are doing all that well due to eviction freezes.

    In non-urban places like Utah and Idaho, home prices were up 30% just in 2021. Our home is probably worth 50% more than it was just 2-3 years ago. Nice in theory, but all it’s really done is drive up our property taxes by over \$700 in a single year.

    And of course Biden has decided to exacerbate the housing shortage by admitting 2+ million illegal immigrants in just the last year, in addition to the million or more immigrants who come legally every year. And if that isn’t enough, our “Republican” governor, Spencer Cock, has requested that the feds admit even more “temporary” workers into the country.

    Many Democrats are trying to make the housing crisis even worse by pushing for student loan forgiveness. By relieving millions of former college students of much or even all of their student loan debt, more of them would be able to compete with everyone else both as renters and as homebuyers. People who have been saving up for years to buy a house will get to compete with people who have been given a massive handout by the government for no really good reason, even as the trillions that are borrowed to pay off the student loans make the dollar even more worthless.

    • Agree: Achmed E. Newman
    • Replies: @Rosie
    @Wilkey


    Many Democrats are trying to make the housing crisis even worse by pushing for student loan forgiveness. By relieving millions of former college students of much or even all of their student loan debt, more of them would be able to compete with everyone else both as renters and as homebuyers. People who have been saving up for years to buy a house will get to compete with people who have been given a massive handout by the government for no really good reason, even as the trillions that are borrowed to pay off the student loans make the dollar even more worthless.
     
    Don't even go there. The student loan scam is the most egregious privatize-the-gains-socialize-the-losses scheme that ever was. There are a million better ways to ease the housing crisis than to throw student loan debt slaves under the trolley.
    , @3g4me
    @Wilkey

    @31 Wilkey: Here in the DFW 'burbs, same thing. All the NY, Cali, Chicago, NJ rats escaping their sinking ships are hightailing it to Texas, welcomed with open arms by our idiot governor (bigger tax base!!!) and their idiot brethren already crowding up the place. Our purported home value is obscene, and we get almost weekly letters from multiple companies offer to buy our home sight unseen.

    Both apartment rents are up (nonstop immivasion of Han/subcons and internal migration of the same from Cali, NY etc.) and housing rents are through the roof. When we were trying to find a house for my son's family last fall, every house was rented before it even made the official listing, generally by out-of-staters offering hundreds of dollars over the asking price. The one we finally managed to get was just the same - bought from an elderly absentee owner, given a few cosmetic updates, and re-rented for a $600 monthly increase.

    Meanwhile, every leftist with a scintilla of self-preservation is moving to Austin, which is destined to become San Francisco in future Weimerica. Cannot wait to get out of Texas - it's done. Demographics is destiny.

  32. That’s a misrepresentation of the conspiracy theory.* It’s not a “profit” conspiracy it’s a kratos conspiracy. Note that I don’t necessarily buy this theory either, for various reasons.

    The theory goes that the whole point is to trash property values precisely because the plan costs a lot of money, rather than making money, and therefore anything which makes it cost less is an improvement to the plan.
    The plan being to end up explicitly owning all the land. You have to remember Blackrock is not an investment firm, it’s a State-level money-laundering operation. Fundamentally it’s part of the government and its money comes straight from the Fed as a matter of accounting identities. As per Moldbug, what does “profit” even mean to a firm that can print its own money?

    *I’m not CIA so I don’t think there’s anything wrong with a conspiracy theory.

    Here are the real problems with this theory:
    There are a bunch of pro-ownership policies. Dumb ones, but still. The idea of making everyone a renter is exactly the opposite. This theory goes rather beyond merely the left hand not knowing what the right is doing. This would be the left hand having a knock-down drag-out cagematch with the right. A lot easier to just order the homeownership policies to stop; there’s even easy excuses to use.

    The return of feudalism to America is still 2-3 generations away. The easiest way to save money would be to not start buying it now.

    They basically already own the blue cities, so stoking riots in blue cities is a net wash not including transaction costs.

    Oh wait I accidentally fixed it.

    IRL Evil is banal. It’s important so I’ll say it again: drab and prosaic. The scheme is the downright boring [public expense, private profit]. Blackrock gets to spend Fed money but keep the land for itself. If it can tank the price it gets to keep more land in absolute terms. A fortiori: they get paid a salary (which they then get to spend/invest) to spend other people’s money on things they’ll keep for themselves.
    It’s a sweet gig for the <10,000 Americans who can get one.

    What does [profit] mean to an entity that can print its own money? It means buying hard assets with that money, duh.
    However, USG can't be caught buying land directly with Fed money. That scheme is (they think) just a hair too obvious. Buying BTC is right out. Hence the cat's paw.

    • Thanks: Almost Missouri
  33. P.S. It is exactly this sort of behaviour that will lead to America’s return to feudalism; Rome 2.0’s end will be almost identical to Rome 1.0’s end. The mimicry was successful.
    Some of them have read their history and will do it on purpose, but it will happen quite naturally and unintentionally even if they don’t.

  34. @Thulean Friend

    Most of the other places with rapidly rising rents are fairly suburban and/or mooted alternatives to Silicon Valley, such as Austin, Miami, and Boston.
     
    I disagree about that framing. I don't think their suburban status or "mooted alternative to SV" is the primary factor.

    If you look at the top 20, most of them tend to be sunbelt states like Arizona, Nevada or Florida. Basically most gainers have high proportion of Latinx and lower proportion of blacks (compared to the losers). Tampa is a relative outlier in that regard, but the general pattern holds.

    Unz has written many years ago how Latinx have lower crime rates, so there could be a link to the post-2020 murder rampage, as people seek safer alternatives. The gainers also have pleasant weather, warmth and lots of sun. What's not to like?

    NYC's #1 position is misleading since rents are just 4.4% higher since March 2020. The 2021 gains mostly offset earlier declines in 2020. Most others increased 20-30% over the same two years.

    Replies: @AndrewR

    Sailer please ban him for writing “Latinx” unironically

    • LOL: Gordo
    • Replies: @tyrone
    @AndrewR

    Yeah, that stiXs in the craw.

  35. Cori Bush’s car was hit by gunfire this week. Sadly, the car was unoccupied.

    She responded by saying we need to address the root causes of gun violence. I don’t think Ms. Bush would be happy to hear my ideas about what these root causes are.

  36. Anon[259] • Disclaimer says:
    @Charon
    @rebel yell


    If you have coffee and an internet connection, you have all that civilization has to offer.

     

    Performing Arts: symphony, recitals, opera, theater, concerts, dance. Sports: choose your favorites. Advanced medical services. Fine-dining restaurants. Museums. Historical sites. Social clubs, parties. And so on. Yeah, I guess you could watch someone eating at a good restaurant on YouTube.

    You don’t need fancy beaches or mountains either. Every landscape has something to love – appreciate what is at hand.
     
    I hate flat landscapes. They're boring and stupid. They tend to attract boring and stupid people.

    Replies: @Anon, @Elmer T. Jones, @JMcG, @Reg Cæsar

    Performing Arts: symphony, recitals, opera, theater, concerts, dance. Sports: choose your favorites. Advanced medical services. Fine-dining restaurants. Museums. Historical sites. Social clubs, parties. And so on

    Very feminine priorities! I don’t suppose you have any concern at all for the men in your life?

    I hate flat landscapes. They’re boring and stupid. They tend to attract boring and stupid people.

    Wow, spoken like an ignorant child. Some of us like the freedom to walk on stable footing. Some of us enjoy the 360 views of the great blue sky. And I assure you these landscapes attract the most creative, intelligent people. How else do you expect societies to build themselves on flat, rockless, treeless plains? Mountainous regions and forests attract stupid, uncreative, cowardly people who prefer to take the path of least resistance.

  37. I think the business ”plan” for Tampa/St. Pete is to use rents to remove the negro/meth head population. That is not the municipal governments plan though because these ”people” are reliable voters so they are busy trying to use Biden’s Billions to develop ‘low cost housing” that will retain a bloc of reliable Democrat voters who can be deployed as needed.

    The high murder rate can then be used to discourage decent people who have jobs from moving in and displacing the local politicians negroes. Its quite a battle going on as private landlords seek the former and are eager to send the latter over to Polk County where Sheriff Grady Judd, now reinforced with this ex NYPD posse, are busy shooting to death, the Tampa Bay detritus coming into Polk County who cannot obey lawful police commands. The ex NYPD officers are impressed and amazed at how Sheriff Judd, instead of apologizing for some low life getting ventilated by his officers, instead holds a news conference praising his officers for their excellent work and how much the low life deserved what he got! Its the antithesis of New York policing and why ex NYPD are glad they now work for Grady Judd.

  38. @JohnnyWalker123
    Can anyone here offer an opinion on Tampa, Florida? Good place to live?

    Replies: @Bill, @Veteran Aryan, @Anthony Aaron, @Jim Christian, @Brutusale, @Known Fact, @Bardon Kaldlan, @Reg Cæsar

    Go out to New Port Richey, Pasco County Florida. White, conservative, strong police agencies. Outside Tampa on the Gulf, it’s ideal. Hot for sure May through September, it’s quite temperate the rest of the year. It’s where I snowbird, anyway.

    • Thanks: JohnnyWalker123
    • Replies: @Brutusale
    @Jim Christian

    Yeah, Jim, but there is Route 19 to deal with!

  39. Anon[243] • Disclaimer says:

    Soros-backed REETs can buy up some urban properties pretty cheap now, and be the new landlords when the media decides the Racial Reckoning is over.

    I hope that isn’t a Soros side plan, but given what the guy has done with currencies, it can’t be discounted. One of his sons is basically the old man’s “mini-me” who promises to continue his father’s work, so it is a multi-generational effort.

  40. Possible logic of the conspiracy theory:
    1 — You’re omitting the self-explanatory and historically attested political motives of tolerated rioting (ie, communists pull this stunt every single time they need to, recently in Nicaragua, and consistently throughout the Cold War, using an evil caricature of popular unrest to smash down real popular unrest).
    2 — The goal isn’t to make a tiny pittance as a landlord. Landlords are what working and lower middle class people who have their stuff together become to retire because pensions are for elites. The goal is to completely destroy property ownership. The current stage is to have Blackrock buy everything up and demand that everything be rented. Making everything much cheaper, even unwanted, does not serve landlords, but it does serve the WEF.
    3 — Feudalism.

  41. Step 2 was to buy up property at pennies on the dollar … in Minneapolis, the local Fed office even mapped it out.

  42. OT — a Norse anon updates the famous line, about the billionaire knowing to get out of the market when his chauffeur volunteered advice, for the instagram and tiktok age:

    I’ve found a genuinely foolproof way to get rich through investing:
    Read the market through women

    Basically, women are the ultimate top signal, of ANYTHING
    Whenever women, especially attractive ones, enter a business or express public interest in an investment, it’s about to crash HARD
    This never fails, crypto, stocks, tech, whatever

    So here’s how I’ve made over 300k
    –Accumulate lesser known projects
    –Wait for hype period
    –The MOMENT you see women, tiktok whores, female “””influencers””” express interest, sell everything
    –Open a huge short
    The last part is the most important, even if you don’t own the stock/crypto, you can still open a short

    I shorted crypto when I saw this
    I shorted Tesla when I saw some tiktok bimbo invest in it
    I shorted GME and AMC when I saw a pretty girl advocating for it

    Basically, women are the ultimate top signal
    The more attractive they are, the closer the crash is

    Take this knowledge for the next stock/crypto bullruns in 2023-24, and you will be rich

    I don’t want this to be true but suspect it’s irrefutable, and furthermore it coud be expanded to all the propped-up establishment-fetishized people. Anyone the bad guys want to win, anyone the establishment cannot bear to see criticized, anyone who needs government intervention for equity in a market economy.

    • Replies: @Reg Cæsar
    @J.Ross

    Damn. Should have shorted Theranos...


    https://www.ictandhealth.com/wp-content/uploads/2018/09/Fortune-Forbes-E-Holmes.2.jpg

    Replies: @J.Ross

  43. @Charon
    @rebel yell


    If you have coffee and an internet connection, you have all that civilization has to offer.

     

    Performing Arts: symphony, recitals, opera, theater, concerts, dance. Sports: choose your favorites. Advanced medical services. Fine-dining restaurants. Museums. Historical sites. Social clubs, parties. And so on. Yeah, I guess you could watch someone eating at a good restaurant on YouTube.

    You don’t need fancy beaches or mountains either. Every landscape has something to love – appreciate what is at hand.
     
    I hate flat landscapes. They're boring and stupid. They tend to attract boring and stupid people.

    Replies: @Anon, @Elmer T. Jones, @JMcG, @Reg Cæsar

    “Performing Arts: symphony, recitals, opera, theater, concerts, dance. Sports: choose your favorites. Advanced medical services. Fine-dining restaurants. Museums. Historical sites. Social clubs, parties. And so on.”

    Interesting, interesting…

  44. @JohnnyWalker123
    Can anyone here offer an opinion on Tampa, Florida? Good place to live?

    Replies: @Bill, @Veteran Aryan, @Anthony Aaron, @Jim Christian, @Brutusale, @Known Fact, @Bardon Kaldlan, @Reg Cæsar

    Davis Islands, NICE! It’s where I’d want to live if I were in Tampa.
    https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Davis_Islands_(Tampa)
    College Hill, not so much.
    https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/College_Hill_(Tampa)

    My College Hill story: back in the 90s my ex and I we visiting my parents, residents of a coastal community about 25 miles north of Tampa. One Saturday evening we decided to visit Ybor City, a funky tourist area in the old Cuban district of Tampa and home to the iconic Columbia Restaurant. As I was driving, my dad piped up from the back seat that he thought we missed the highway exit for Ybor and that I should get off at the next exit and we’ll backtrack, which I did. We were making our way up a main thoroughfare when my mom asked, “Did that sign just say College Hill?”. Then I heard her hit the door lock.

    The next two miles were just like a gangster rap video. I didn’t stop for a red light or a stop sign until I saw a white face!

    The Palma Ceia neighborhood is nice. My parents used to have friends there. Carrollwood is a lovely older part of the city.

    • Thanks: JohnnyWalker123
    • Replies: @JohnnyWalker123
    @Brutusale

    Thanks for the informative & detailed answer. Very helpful.

  45. @Pixo
    “ I doubt if landlords are doing all that well due to eviction freezes.”

    1. Eviction bans’ impact was small and localized. Overall, rental nonpayment did not rise during covid.

    2. Again there are regional variations, but nationally rental property is worth about 35% more than in 2019.

    So landlords are doing very fine overall.

    Bad tenants are gradually becoming less of a problem due to credit reports and background checks. Very low vacancy means you can be picky with tenants as well.

    Replies: @YetAnotherAnon

    And long term landlords are doing great. There’s a reason why you can’t buy a 3 square mile ranch in Northern California for Neil Young 1969 money any more.

    I know someone who bought an isolated place in the English Lakes for 15k 40 years back and sold for a million.

    You need to cross over to the economist Michael Hudson’s place at this fine site to understand why. It all ties in again with Affordable Family Formation.

    https://www.unz.com/mhudson/the-saker-interviews-michael-hudson-3/

    The Federal Reserve and Treasury painted the U.S. into a corner with its Quantitative Easing to save the banks and brokerage houses after 2008. The policy succeeded in supporting and even raising real estate prices, and providing arbitrage opportunities to borrow at low rates to buy higher-yielding stocks and bonds, vastly increasing the magnitude of financial wealth. This has been especially the case since the pandemic, creating an estimated trillion dollars in “capital gains” (including short term arbitrage) for the wealthiest One Percent.

    What seemed to be the financial death trap was the prospect of rising interest rates ending the free lunch of interest-dividend arbitrage, and easy mortgage money. The threat was to reverse the asset-price run-up. We already are seeing that in recent weeks as stocks plunged to reflect the rise in Treasury bond rates.

    But by now, 14 years after the Obama bailouts and QE rescue of insolvent banks, a new condition has emerged: a vast sum of private capital seeking to move out of the financial markets. Many of the most astute One Percent is taking their money and running – into private equity and real estate.

    The result is that housing prices are soaring as private capital is out-bidding owner-occupant home buyers. While the latter face rising mortgage-interest rates, private capital finds the likelihood for both current rental income and capital gains to be a much better bet than the stock and bond market. The result will not be a decline in real estate prices, but a decline in home-ownership rates as a shift to rental housing occurs. The financial class is becoming the new absentee landlord class.

    Lower stock prices will spur a similar private-capital wave of corporate takeovers, posturing as “rescuers” of the economy. The aim will be short-term asset stripping, of course (that is the business plan of private equity), but it will consolidate ownership in the hands of a financial elite. And to the extent that state and local budgets suffer from the downturn, sell-offs of public land and infrastructure also will transfer property and its rent-extracting opportunities into hands – not with borrowed credit but for all-cash, the cash that QE policy and tax favoritism has brought into being in the past 14 years.

    So, to the extent that there are bankruptcies, this will have the usual result: consolidation and concentration of wealth ownership. The non-financial economy’s structure is being transformed – under the slogan of individualistic free markets.

    The decline in rentals is a blip. We are returning to the days of the 1930s or before, when renting rather than ownership was the norm. The post-war settlement ended in the US around 1971, in the UK around 1979.

    In the UK a lot of City money is moving into farms on mountain or other marginal land – there’s Green bucks in them thar hills.

    https://www.bbc.co.uk/news/uk-wales-58103603

    “Tree-planting: Why are large investment firms buying Welsh farms?”

  46. @Bill
    @JohnnyWalker123

    If you don't mind blazing hot and humid, it's very nice. Sarasota is even nicer. Florida is divided into three parts. The east is part of New York. The west is part of the Midwest. The north and much of the interior are part of the South.

    Replies: @Anon, @Brutusale, @The Germ Theory of Disease, @Bill Jones

    Sarasota is getting filled up, maybe North Port, Port Charlotte (still looks like 1950’s I.e. Punta Gorda airport). South East Coast looking like Tijuana on a bad day.

  47. @Bill
    @JohnnyWalker123

    If you don't mind blazing hot and humid, it's very nice. Sarasota is even nicer. Florida is divided into three parts. The east is part of New York. The west is part of the Midwest. The north and much of the interior are part of the South.

    Replies: @Anon, @Brutusale, @The Germ Theory of Disease, @Bill Jones

    The Gulf coast from Tampa down is snowbird country, not just Midwesterners. Dunedin is Little Toronto; Fort Myers and Naples are full of Massholes. North of Tampa you have God’s Waiting Room (Hernando and Pasco counties are #1 and #2 in the country for median age) and not much else until you hit the Redneck Riviera, the Panhandle, which has some of the best beaches in the country.

    The heat and humidity are oppressive, but there are very few places in Florida without thermonuclear air conditioning. My brother got married in Tampa on a Labor Day weekend and the temperature was 94 with 100% humidity. The A/C was such that I didn’t take off my tuxedo jacket the whole day.

    • Replies: @JMcG
    @Brutusale

    Fort Myers is a mighty thin crust of affluence on some of the worst black neighborhoods I’ve ever seen. It’s a little like LA in that the houses are singles with yards full of Palm Trees, but they are straight up ghettos.

    Replies: @Brutusale

    , @Muggles
    @Brutusale


    The heat and humidity are oppressive, but there are very few places in Florida without thermonuclear air conditioning. My brother got married in Tampa on a Labor Day weekend and the temperature was 94 with 100% humidity. The A/C was such that I didn’t take off my tuxedo jacket the whole day.
     
    I get a kick out of comments like this about weather. "Thermonuclear" a/c, heh.

    I live in the Houston area and this is the norm. All along the Gulf Coast, which is quite long.

    Yes, very unpleasant (in summer mainly) without a/c, though I've lived through summers without it.

    But we now read of huge blizzards in the NE, Atlantic coast. Often.

    "Thermonuclear" heating? No, not any longer. Good luck with those solar panels.

    Air conditioning became possible for single family homes and really, everywhere else in the 1950s. That is when the "Sun Belt" took off.

    Winters where I live are like summers up north, where I grew up. It takes years to get used to that. Summers (and shoulder seasons of spring, fall) you dress for the heat and keep the a/c going.

    Winters are often very nice, like summer elsewhere. Kids play outside, golfers, tennis all day, hiking and biking, marathons. Cold weather raised people don't quite understand this until they live here a while. Many choose to stay.

    As for me, I enjoy hearing Green lefties complain about freezing in the dark in winter. Too bad we still sell them unfashionable fossil fuels. Now at $100/barrel. Joe Biden, is there anything he can't do?
  48. @San Fernando Curt
    Wouldn't this otherwise valuable urban land - already blighted by violence and the chronically violence-prone - collapse in value as the cities became all-but battle zones? Wouldn't it be prudent for wise investors to just 'doze what has become near-rubble anyway? Land increases in value. Asians and self-hating honkie's move in. The sweet times are back.

    This is your own much-cited theory of real estate chaos, Mr. Sailer. Delving back into your own work - we can expect much of the development money to be Chinese. Come on, man.

    Replies: @Steve Sailer, @Mr. Anon, @Mike Tre

    “Wouldn’t this otherwise valuable urban land – already blighted by violence and the chronically violence-prone – collapse in value as the cities became all-but battle zones? Wouldn’t it be prudent for wise investors to just ‘doze what has become near-rubble anyway? Land increases in value. Asians and self-hating honkie’s move in. The sweet times are back.”

    this is similar to what Richie Daley did in Chicago from the 1989 – 2011. He moved the housing project occupying negroes out into the suburbs with the help of section 8 vouchers, let his investor developer buddies purchase the property, bulldoze it, throw up SWPL retail and condos. I’ve said plenty of times that my wife’s suburb Park Forest went from a middle of the middle class community to a negro occupied wasteland within the span of a single generation.

    Corporate landlords continue to construct high density “luxury apartments” in the more posh townships outside of Chicago. Orland Park used to be the pinnacle of south Chicago suburban living, and it and the surrounding towns are now infested. The Orland Park mall is on its way to becoming the Ford City mall.

    Naperville – the jewel of the Western suburbs is busy securing its own demise with ongoing construction of these high density apartment complexes and moving negroes from the city into them.

    The

  49. Don’t forget that White Greed is a biggg reason why rents are going up.

    • Replies: @Prof. Woland
    @anonymous

    I live on the other side of the Oakland Hills and last year there was a noticeable number of younger hipster type families from there that moved in. Many who worked out of the homes due to covid figured it was better to buy where you could have a decent home office and some land. But the market has almost completely died. Higher interest rates don't help and prices spiked last year as younger people got out of Dodge / SF / Oakland for greener pastures. The problem for the less quick or well healed is that there is nothing for sale now. I am in a town of 25k and there might be 12 properties for sale, a quarter of which are bare lots. People who would have settled in the East Bay are now skipping over and going for Sacramento, Reno, and further. The older whiter people with a lot of equity in their homes in the burbs will just sit tight and weather another storm much like in 2008 with the subprime melt down.

  50. So, what’s this about blm being leaderless for months ,a veritable ghost ship floating around with all that money…..the great thing about a ghost ship is you can climb aboard and take anything you want …..we all knew it would end in a big money grab.

    • Agree: Muggles
  51. @AndrewR
    @Thulean Friend

    Sailer please ban him for writing "Latinx" unironically

    Replies: @tyrone

    Yeah, that stiXs in the craw.

  52. @Arclight
    Cities with good weather and favorable demographic mix are where to be. Cold weather cities that lost most of their industrial jobs not so much, particularly if you don't have the skills or education to make an upper middle class living.

    Some of the cities on the low rent growth chart above have been stagnant for awhile already, whereas places like Minneapolis (despite the weather) and Portland shot themselves in the foot repeatedly over the last couple of years and I don't think it's sunk in for most of the population just what they've done and how hard it will be to reverse, based on my conversations with relatives in the Twin Cities.

    Sort of surprising to see Madison on the list, but I would guess with a huge share of its renter class being college students, the somewhat lagging rent growth is due to this school being more averse to in-person instruction due to Covid and many students (or more precisely their parents) deciding not to sign up for leases for the 202o-2021 school year.

    Replies: @Reg Cæsar, @JMcG

    The economics of air conditioning are going to be interesting as we go down the renewable rabbit hole.

    • Replies: @Muggles
    @JMcG


    The economics of air conditioning are going to be interesting as we go down the renewable rabbit hole.
     
    Written by someone, no doubt, a Yankee. No offense intended.

    Texas produces more non fossil energy than any other state in the union. Lots of sunshine, often wind, and still have nukes. We'll be fine.

    So all of the Greenies and their EVs will need much more juice than mere air conditioning. How much of Martha's Vineyard will they cover in windmills and solar panels? Maybe just Queens?

    In commie Yankee land, they won't build dams, nuke plants, let you frack, build wind power towers, put up solar panels (well, not many, also very dark in winter) and oh, even burn firewood in many places. Those server farms need a lot of juice too.

    The "economics of renewables" will be very interesting in places where you can freeze to death much of the year.

    I'm not saying you're one of the insane climate hysterics. No offense intended. I'm all in favor of clean air and not gunking up the atmosphere.

    There are solutions of course. But the same people who decry fossil energy are also the magical thinkers who believe that their precious cell phones and big screen streaming TVs work on good intentions and warm feelings.

    Eventually eco nuts will either die out or start to embrace safe nuclear energy.

    Replies: @JMcG

  53. @Charon
    @rebel yell


    If you have coffee and an internet connection, you have all that civilization has to offer.

     

    Performing Arts: symphony, recitals, opera, theater, concerts, dance. Sports: choose your favorites. Advanced medical services. Fine-dining restaurants. Museums. Historical sites. Social clubs, parties. And so on. Yeah, I guess you could watch someone eating at a good restaurant on YouTube.

    You don’t need fancy beaches or mountains either. Every landscape has something to love – appreciate what is at hand.
     
    I hate flat landscapes. They're boring and stupid. They tend to attract boring and stupid people.

    Replies: @Anon, @Elmer T. Jones, @JMcG, @Reg Cæsar

    Nothing is more stupid or boring than fine dining. Restaurants as restaurants have been around for what, 150 years? Hardly a key part of western civilization. Throwing away hundreds of dollars on 80.00 worth of food and wine prepared in a filthy kitchen by runny-nosed illegal immigrants show a remarkable lack of discernment.
    I’ll take Oklahoma any day.

    • Agree: 3g4me
    • Replies: @prosa123
    @JMcG

    Nothing is more stupid or boring than fine dining. Restaurants as restaurants have been around for what, 150 years? Hardly a key part of western civilization.

    Some of the very highest-end prix fixe restaurants in NYC and possibly elsewhere have taken things to an unprecedented level. When customers make reservations, which typically has to be several weeks in advance, they are required to pay the full costs of the meals (sometimes $1,000 for two) at the same time. Refunds or reschedules are not allowed for any reasons, not even positive and documented Covid diagnoses.

    Replies: @JMcG

  54. @Brutusale
    @Bill

    The Gulf coast from Tampa down is snowbird country, not just Midwesterners. Dunedin is Little Toronto; Fort Myers and Naples are full of Massholes. North of Tampa you have God's Waiting Room (Hernando and Pasco counties are #1 and #2 in the country for median age) and not much else until you hit the Redneck Riviera, the Panhandle, which has some of the best beaches in the country.

    The heat and humidity are oppressive, but there are very few places in Florida without thermonuclear air conditioning. My brother got married in Tampa on a Labor Day weekend and the temperature was 94 with 100% humidity. The A/C was such that I didn't take off my tuxedo jacket the whole day.

    Replies: @JMcG, @Muggles

    Fort Myers is a mighty thin crust of affluence on some of the worst black neighborhoods I’ve ever seen. It’s a little like LA in that the houses are singles with yards full of Palm Trees, but they are straight up ghettos.

    • Replies: @Brutusale
    @JMcG

    A huge problem for Northerners is the inability to parse Southern ghettoes. We're used to projects, not single-family homes with palm trees.

    Replies: @JohnnyWalker123

  55. @anon
    Rents are only part of the equation for landlords. Commercial property values are a function of A) rents, and B) the rent multiples that properties sell for. (In real estate, the term is "cap rate", which is the inverse of a P/E ratio.)

    Over the past year, multifamily cap rates have declined (i.e. rent multiples have risen) to levels previously considered ludicrous. In most places in the US, right now is a good time to be a landlord. You can sell your properties for a windfall if you want to walk away.

    I don't own any commercial real estate, but I work in a related field so I know people who do at a fairly large scale. As I understand it, the eviction moratoriums have had different effects in different places. In my area the government has reimbursed landlords for some of the lost rent from tenants who stopped paying during COVID. And a lot of renters were flush with cash from all of the helicopter money, so they stayed current on rent more than you might have expected.

    The true real estate losers of the past two years may turn out to be owners of office, not apartment, buildings. These owners haven't lost much of anything yet because their tenants sign long-term leases. Loads of massive downtown office buildings generated 98% rent collections even as they were maybe 10% physically occupied while the tenants' employees worked from home. But now that work-from-home is known to work reasonably well for extended periods, the longer-term future of office real estate is very uncertain.

    Replies: @Barnard, @prosa123

    Smaller retail and office spaces are likely to have the worst recovery. A significant number of people simply closed up shop and turned in their keys. Good luck collecting the remaining years of rent they own from their LLC. Even for those that signed a personal guarantee good luck collecting. There was a lot of rental assistance out there for apartment tenants, some of the processing was slow but anyone who tried to get it could. The tenants who stuck it to mom and pop landlords just because they could get away with it are scum.

  56. @Mr. Anon

    One conspiracy theory is that the Real Estate Interests carefully plotted the 2020 racial reckoning riots in order to launch some unspecified Underwear Gnomes business plan:

    Stoke riot and murder in the cities.
    Profit!

    Obviously, if I understood genius business strategies, I’d be rich, but I’m not so I don’t. But still, making rents in Oakland, with its history of black radicalism and high crime rates, 17.5% lower relative to the country as a whole over the course of 2021 sounds like a pretty expensive Step 2.
     

    I don't think the BLM inspired murder and looting fest of the last two years was plotted by real-estate interests, but I can see how the BLM and COVID policies of the last two years are aiding big corporate real-estate outfits like Blackrock. You make cities unliveable, drive down rents, and permit people to live rent-free for months on end, and you will drive small real-estate owners to sell at a discount. Then when big real-estate outfits have snapped up all that property, relegating many people to be renters, they use their political muscle to change the policies that made their fire-sale purchases possible.

    You'll own nothing and you'll be happy (or else). Believe them when they say it.

    Replies: @Justvisiting

    I don’t think the BLM inspired murder and looting fest of the last two years was plotted by real-estate interests

    I always ask “who benefits”.

    Luck is possible but planning and support is more likely.

    Big corporate support of BLM is a clue, not proof, but a clue.

  57. @Wilkey

    Rent went up a record 18% in 2021, although I doubt if landlords are doing all that well due to eviction freezes.
     
    In non-urban places like Utah and Idaho, home prices were up 30% just in 2021. Our home is probably worth 50% more than it was just 2-3 years ago. Nice in theory, but all it's really done is drive up our property taxes by over $700 in a single year.

    And of course Biden has decided to exacerbate the housing shortage by admitting 2+ million illegal immigrants in just the last year, in addition to the million or more immigrants who come legally every year. And if that isn't enough, our "Republican" governor, Spencer Cock, has requested that the feds admit even more "temporary" workers into the country.

    Many Democrats are trying to make the housing crisis even worse by pushing for student loan forgiveness. By relieving millions of former college students of much or even all of their student loan debt, more of them would be able to compete with everyone else both as renters and as homebuyers. People who have been saving up for years to buy a house will get to compete with people who have been given a massive handout by the government for no really good reason, even as the trillions that are borrowed to pay off the student loans make the dollar even more worthless.

    Replies: @Rosie, @3g4me

    Many Democrats are trying to make the housing crisis even worse by pushing for student loan forgiveness. By relieving millions of former college students of much or even all of their student loan debt, more of them would be able to compete with everyone else both as renters and as homebuyers. People who have been saving up for years to buy a house will get to compete with people who have been given a massive handout by the government for no really good reason, even as the trillions that are borrowed to pay off the student loans make the dollar even more worthless.

    Don’t even go there. The student loan scam is the most egregious privatize-the-gains-socialize-the-losses scheme that ever was. There are a million better ways to ease the housing crisis than to throw student loan debt slaves under the trolley.

  58. @Mark Spahn (West Seneca, NY)
    "if I understood genius business strategies, I’d be rich, but I’m not so I don’t."

    https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Modus_tollens

    Replies: @ScarletNumber

    Apparently Steve was out sick the day they taught this at UCLA

    • Replies: @Intelligent Dasein
    @ScarletNumber


    Apparently Steve was out sick the day they taught this at UCLA.
     
    Actually, Steve's use of modus tollens is correct here and his one-line example of contraposition is formally valid.

    Any confusion about this probably results from the fact that his conditional statement ("Obviously, if I understood genius business strategies, I’d be rich") is not itself deductively certain. You can understand business strategies without being rich, as experience has demonstrated. So, while the argument may not be sound, it's logical form is unimpeachable.

    In matters of logic, it's always important to remember that formal validity and soundness are two different things. Any statement of the form "If P then Q; not Q; therefore, not P" is valid by definition, regardless of the soundness of the individual premises. For example:

    If Cary Grant is a mermaid, then the Moon is made of green cheese.
    The Moon is not made of green cheese.
    Therefore, Cary Grant is not a mermaid.

    The premises here are deliberately absurdist in order to illustrate the point. They are not accurate representations of reality and there is no causal connection between them, but the above argument is formally valid. If the Moon is not made of green cheese, then Cary Grant cannot be a mermaid. That's what the conditional is saying.

    "Thought itself moves nothing," as Aristotle said. The inability of logic alone to establish facts outside of experience is something that should be borne in mind by everyone who tends to be too mathematical about things. Actually existing entities are needed to provide the "oomph" to logical expressions. Reasoning about unreal things does not make them real; and to the extent that your perception of things is erroneous, you will be reasoning about unrealities.

    Case in point: Notice how it was quants like Sailer, Unz, Cochran, and Talib who were the most wrong about Covid-19. I'm sure their mathematics were all internally consistent, but the real virus simply isn't what they assumed it was.

    Replies: @ScarletNumber

    , @Muggles
    @ScarletNumber


    Apparently Steve was out sick the day they taught this at UCLA
     
    Steve attended Rice University in Houston.

    But you can still blame UCLA for any and all of his educational deficiencies.

    Replies: @ScarletNumber

  59. @Abolish_public_education
    I've heard that the low vacancy rate is due to owners renting short-term, e.g. AirBnB.

    Replies: @Barnard

    I doubt that would be the cause of low vacancy in most places. Landlords would have to furnish the units and be in an area with high enough AirBNB demand to make that worth the hassle.

  60. @International Jew
    @Farenheit


    road warrioresqe RV homeless camps popping up everywhere
     
    Where in particular? (I haven't been back since Covid but I'm interested.)

    Replies: @Farenheit

    IJ,

    If you’re in the area, drive through Niles Canyon. At the beginning of the canyon there’s a really nice park called Vallejo Mills. When I was a young buck my Boy Scout troop would have courts of honor there in the summer.

    Anyway, it now has about 30 ramshackle RVs parked there with piles of junk and trash strewn hither and yon. The city cleaned them out about a year ago when they first showed up, they came right back and the city’s done nothing since.

    In southern Fremont, down near Tesla in the “warehouse district” there’s these campground here and there as well.

    • Replies: @danand
    @Farenheit

    "In southern Fremont, down near Tesla in the “warehouse district” there’s these campgrounds here and there as well."

    Farenheit, come on, there aren't that many campgrounds...

    Took this shot a few hours back, Tesla's factory is just over the freeway (880), about a mile South:

    https://flic.kr/p/2n1oiGE

    This home has taken roots in this spot, along with a handful of others, for several months.

  61. @Reg Cæsar
    @rebel yell


    where New York snobs would never go – Oklahoma, Missouri, Arkansas, Kansas. Homes are cheap, people are real, hospitals and Starbucks are the same as everywhere else.
     
    That's true of Upstate as well, and (except for cities you can count on one hand) it's much whiter. Fewer tornadoes, too.

    Why would you move to diversity?

    Replies: @Almost Missouri

    Why would you move to diversity?

    1) To make money.

    2) To find a spouse.

    At least that’s what I see people doing.

    Note that they’re not moving to diversity to do that. They’re moving to concentrated population/cultural centers to do that. Those places tend to have a lot of diversity though, so it might look like they’re moving to diversity.

    • Replies: @Prof. Woland
    @Almost Missouri

    When I was a yuppie in the late 80's I lived in the Castro for two years. Talk about diversity. Me and two other straight friends got the chance to rent a flat there. We were one of exactly two straight households on the small street where we lived.

    (safe enough but not the type of place you would want to raise kids. there is another super gay town in the Bay Area on the Russian River called Guerneville.)

    One of the things that has stayed with me was how much of a ghetto San Francisco is. There were people there from all over the country who chose to live there just so they could be around their own kind. Needless to say, we were not entirely welcome. Many gays (no lesbians) were closeted back wherever they came from and instinctively felt uncomfortable around straights. We knew who they were.

    Halloween on Castro was a hoot. I can remember when one of my roommate's relative from Pennsylvania came to visit us. He was so freaked out. Gays have gaydar too or straightdar ( I just invented a word) and they would try to shit test people. For us it was just water off a duck's back.

    Our band of brothers fell apart when we all got hitched or married and moved on. It was fun while it lasted but that was another era. It has gone downhill.

    Replies: @YetAnotherAnon

  62. @JohnnyWalker123
    Can anyone here offer an opinion on Tampa, Florida? Good place to live?

    Replies: @Bill, @Veteran Aryan, @Anthony Aaron, @Jim Christian, @Brutusale, @Known Fact, @Bardon Kaldlan, @Reg Cæsar

    Are you retiring or at some career point? I’d try someplace smaller up or down the Gulf Coast from the Tampa sprawl unless you need a lot of stimulation

    • Replies: @JohnnyWalker123
    @Known Fact

    I'm looking for more affordable real-estate, but without sacrificing the amenities of living in a major metro. I'd like a metro that's safe, livable, and reasonably-priced.

    Replies: @Steve Sailer, @Justvisiting, @Known Fact, @Truth

  63. @Charon
    @rebel yell


    If you have coffee and an internet connection, you have all that civilization has to offer.

     

    Performing Arts: symphony, recitals, opera, theater, concerts, dance. Sports: choose your favorites. Advanced medical services. Fine-dining restaurants. Museums. Historical sites. Social clubs, parties. And so on. Yeah, I guess you could watch someone eating at a good restaurant on YouTube.

    You don’t need fancy beaches or mountains either. Every landscape has something to love – appreciate what is at hand.
     
    I hate flat landscapes. They're boring and stupid. They tend to attract boring and stupid people.

    Replies: @Anon, @Elmer T. Jones, @JMcG, @Reg Cæsar

    I hate flat landscapes. They’re boring and stupid. They tend to attract boring and stupid people.

    Whereas mountains tend to attract stupid and terrifying people.

    • Agree: Muggles
    • Replies: @Justvisiting
    @Reg Cæsar

    The terrifying mountain man is a modern myth of the leftist elites.

    Most mountain folks make outstanding friends and neighbors.

    Most leftist elites are back-stabbing, social climbing, status seeking jerks.

  64. @ScarletNumber
    @Mark Spahn (West Seneca, NY)

    Apparently Steve was out sick the day they taught this at UCLA

    Replies: @Intelligent Dasein, @Muggles

    Apparently Steve was out sick the day they taught this at UCLA.

    Actually, Steve’s use of modus tollens is correct here and his one-line example of contraposition is formally valid.

    Any confusion about this probably results from the fact that his conditional statement (“Obviously, if I understood genius business strategies, I’d be rich”) is not itself deductively certain. You can understand business strategies without being rich, as experience has demonstrated. So, while the argument may not be sound, it’s logical form is unimpeachable.

    In matters of logic, it’s always important to remember that formal validity and soundness are two different things. Any statement of the form “If P then Q; not Q; therefore, not P” is valid by definition, regardless of the soundness of the individual premises. For example:

    If Cary Grant is a mermaid, then the Moon is made of green cheese.
    The Moon is not made of green cheese.
    Therefore, Cary Grant is not a mermaid.

    The premises here are deliberately absurdist in order to illustrate the point. They are not accurate representations of reality and there is no causal connection between them, but the above argument is formally valid. If the Moon is not made of green cheese, then Cary Grant cannot be a mermaid. That’s what the conditional is saying.

    “Thought itself moves nothing,” as Aristotle said. The inability of logic alone to establish facts outside of experience is something that should be borne in mind by everyone who tends to be too mathematical about things. Actually existing entities are needed to provide the “oomph” to logical expressions. Reasoning about unreal things does not make them real; and to the extent that your perception of things is erroneous, you will be reasoning about unrealities.

    Case in point: Notice how it was quants like Sailer, Unz, Cochran, and Talib who were the most wrong about Covid-19. I’m sure their mathematics were all internally consistent, but the real virus simply isn’t what they assumed it was.

    • Replies: @ScarletNumber
    @Intelligent Dasein

    Yes, but UCLA at the very least should teach its MBAs to understand genius business strategies.

  65. 1. Get massive government subsidies and bailouts, pay no taxes at all (seriously: check out the report on billionaires by the group pro-publica), open the borders to third-word immigration to drive wages and living standards down, and rents and profits up, waste trillions on pointless winless foreign wars that only enrich defense contractors. And so on.

    2. Stoke riot and murder in the cities. Pit working class blacks and whites against each other in a zero-sum competition for crumbs. And mandate transgender bathrooms. Nobody will be focused on point no.1.

    3. profit!

  66. @Bill
    @JohnnyWalker123

    If you don't mind blazing hot and humid, it's very nice. Sarasota is even nicer. Florida is divided into three parts. The east is part of New York. The west is part of the Midwest. The north and much of the interior are part of the South.

    Replies: @Anon, @Brutusale, @The Germ Theory of Disease, @Bill Jones

    “Florida is divided into three parts.”

    Like omnia Gallia?

    Sorry, sometimes the schoolboy in me can’t help it.

    • Replies: @Bridgeport_IPA
    @The Germ Theory of Disease

    Gotta love a Julius Caesar reference.

  67. @Reg Cæsar
    @Charon


    I hate flat landscapes. They’re boring and stupid. They tend to attract boring and stupid people.
     
    Whereas mountains tend to attract stupid and terrifying people.

    Replies: @Justvisiting

    The terrifying mountain man is a modern myth of the leftist elites.

    Most mountain folks make outstanding friends and neighbors.

    Most leftist elites are back-stabbing, social climbing, status seeking jerks.

    • Agree: Muggles
  68. @Ghost of Bull Moose
    Hard to generate much sympathy for urban landlords.

    Replies: @Reg Cæsar, @Muse

    Urban landlords provide a service at a relatively low cost to the government and you the taxpayer that has to pay for the governments largesse via urban housing programs. Most of tenants cannot afford and are not able to buy, maintain or manage their own housing. I you believe that they should be provided housing (I do not), then somebody has to do the job. It costs less to have a slumlord do this than your local, corrupt, unionized and mismanaged local housing authority. In addition to the malaise from Covid, I suspect that some of the low rent growth is because section 8 rates are fixed by the government and moves by diktat, and because marginal earners who might be able to pay more are trying to get out now that these places have become even more lawless.

    It is simply a privatized section 8 business. I knew several relatively wealthy guys that made a lot of money in this business when I was living on the south side of Chicago for 15 years. Like drug dealing, the return on capital invested is higher than other investments, and it provides a business with favorable tax benefits and well paying jobs for you and your extended family, but it is difficult and dangerous work.

    For your section 8 clients the government pays a portion or all of the rent to you, so that reduces your cost and danger of collecting rent, as well as write offs for non-payment. But you still have to maintain and show the places, and that means you have to alway carry heat when you are in the neighborhood.

    The son of one of the guys I knew was murdured trying to collect rent in the south deering neighborhood, a forgotten and horribly dangerous neighborhood on the far south east side.

    I don’t know how leveraged he was, but he probably managed and owned between 10 and 20 million dollars worth of assets.

  69. Most of the other places with rapidly rising rents are fairly suburban and/or mooted alternatives to Silicon Valley, such as Austin, Miami, and Boston. People appear to be moving toward lower murder rates,

    Most of those people are Californians who then promptly vote for the same looney policies that caused the high murder rates back home. I’m a near-native of Mesa and I know. Can’t even afford to live there anymore and was lucky to find an affordable place in nearby Phoenix.

    Californians are loathed throughout the rest of the west and rightfully so. Actually, loathing is not a strong enough word. And we don’t care if they call themselves “conservatives” because they’re still driving up the rents and Bruce Jenner is what passes for conservative there, anyway.

    • Agree: 3g4me
  70. OT Whither Canada?
    A few amusing updates:
    Canadian politicians almost never live in Ottawa and aren’t there if they can help it. Not just for one unpleasant season but year round. Justin Trudeau is supposedly at the Prime Ministerial Cabin (Canadians like Russians normally visit the dacha in summer), which a disgruntled soldier attempted to invade during a time when Trudeau was at the capital, resulting in a six year prison sentence.
    The trucks are now in place but the politicians have already fled.
    The CBC has affirmed its connectedness to the American lyingpress by declaring the Freedom Convoy to be the work of Russians. I’m not making that up. For the globohomo establishment, everything which does not go their way is Russians.
    A Canadian plebbitor in Ottawa, who prays for the safety of the parliamentarians (who largely aren’t there), has complained that the noise of constant truck honking has driven him to near-nausea.
    WELCOME TO CLOWNWORLD HOSER, HERE COME THE MOTHER&@^\$ING GEESE
    [honks to the tune of Molson Hockey Night in Canada]

  71. @International Jew
    @Colin Wright

    "Little Kabul" was a thing there in the 80s because Fremont was still such an overwhelmingly American city that Afghanis were noticeable. Today, Afghanis are about the whitest people there. Fremont is now overwhelmingly Indian and Chinese.

    (I worked there before Covid and still have friends who live there.)

    Replies: @Reg Cæsar

    “Little Kabul” was a thing there in the 80s because Fremont was still such an overwhelmingly American city that Afghanis [sic] were noticeable.

    The first Afghan restaurant in the US was Caravan Serai in St Paul in 1962. Ironically, it closed for good during our original invasion, because the kitchen was flooded and it wasn’t worth the cost to save. By then, there were several other Afghan eateries in the metro area. Some had belly dancers on the weekend.

    However, Afghans were definitely not noticeable in the area. That shows, as with That’s, you can enjoy a foreign cuisine without everybody and his brother and his bacha/ladyboy coming over.

    The same city boasts the first Kurdish restaurant, as well: http://www.babanis.com/ Again, not a lot of Kurds to be seen.

    • Replies: @International Jew
    @Reg Cæsar


    Afghanis [sic]
     
    Sheesh! Give me credit for putting the h in the correct spot.

    Replies: @Reg Cæsar, @kaganovitch

  72. @Anonymous
    The big landlords are doing great, just like all of the big woke corporations. Steve, if you want to understand what’s going on in a way that ties all these strange and dystopic occurrences of the current year together (occurrences that, respectfully, seem to befuddle you more than other people with your talent and perspicacity), I suggest you start with Blackrock, going (at least) back to the repo crisis in September 2019 that re-triggered (of necessity) the stealth QE that had been put on hold for several years. That QE was not widely broadcast until it was extended indefinitely (permanently?) and expanded unprecedentedly (without any opposition) immediately after the Covid panic began in March 2020, a few days after which, Blackrock’s outsized role in managing the business was formally announced, to the surprise of only those who don’t closely follow the massive-scale operations and subterfuges the international banking elite make use of in furtherance of their further enrichment and self-aggrandizing social agendas.

    If I may offer one more related piece of constructive criticism, a possible recent blindspot I sense in your analyses of current events concerns things that only seem disparate on their face (eg the behind-the-scenes financial shenanigans post-2008, the post-2012 shift to wokeness propaganda, the “racial wreckoning,” “World War T,” “invade the world invite the world” policies, global inflation and supply chain crises, the “green agenda” ostensibly to address climate change, the bizarrely coordinated global push for totalitarian measures following the Covid release etc) are actually easily explained by the now incontrovertible evidence of carefully planned collusion between Zionist and globalist entities (ie the Davos anti-nationalists, the mushroom like NGO’s, “philanthropic” foundations, key military intelligence agencies, and captured government players and node-institutions). A good place to start is this guy’s twitter feed. Plenty of threads exposing the corruption between players you probably aren’t aware of:
    https://mobile.twitter.com/JesseMatchey

    Replies: @Gabe Ruth

    TY, been looking for these droids a long time.

  73. @Wilkey

    Rent went up a record 18% in 2021, although I doubt if landlords are doing all that well due to eviction freezes.
     
    In non-urban places like Utah and Idaho, home prices were up 30% just in 2021. Our home is probably worth 50% more than it was just 2-3 years ago. Nice in theory, but all it's really done is drive up our property taxes by over $700 in a single year.

    And of course Biden has decided to exacerbate the housing shortage by admitting 2+ million illegal immigrants in just the last year, in addition to the million or more immigrants who come legally every year. And if that isn't enough, our "Republican" governor, Spencer Cock, has requested that the feds admit even more "temporary" workers into the country.

    Many Democrats are trying to make the housing crisis even worse by pushing for student loan forgiveness. By relieving millions of former college students of much or even all of their student loan debt, more of them would be able to compete with everyone else both as renters and as homebuyers. People who have been saving up for years to buy a house will get to compete with people who have been given a massive handout by the government for no really good reason, even as the trillions that are borrowed to pay off the student loans make the dollar even more worthless.

    Replies: @Rosie, @3g4me

    @31 Wilkey: Here in the DFW ‘burbs, same thing. All the NY, Cali, Chicago, NJ rats escaping their sinking ships are hightailing it to Texas, welcomed with open arms by our idiot governor (bigger tax base!!!) and their idiot brethren already crowding up the place. Our purported home value is obscene, and we get almost weekly letters from multiple companies offer to buy our home sight unseen.

    Both apartment rents are up (nonstop immivasion of Han/subcons and internal migration of the same from Cali, NY etc.) and housing rents are through the roof. When we were trying to find a house for my son’s family last fall, every house was rented before it even made the official listing, generally by out-of-staters offering hundreds of dollars over the asking price. The one we finally managed to get was just the same – bought from an elderly absentee owner, given a few cosmetic updates, and re-rented for a \$600 monthly increase.

    Meanwhile, every leftist with a scintilla of self-preservation is moving to Austin, which is destined to become San Francisco in future Weimerica. Cannot wait to get out of Texas – it’s done. Demographics is destiny.

  74. @San Fernando Curt
    @Steve Sailer

    Obviously, there is a long game afoot.

    Replies: @bigdicknick

    yeah it’s called the great replacement and this is just a side effect they didn’t think about.

    • Agree: J.Ross
  75. @Brutusale
    @Bill

    The Gulf coast from Tampa down is snowbird country, not just Midwesterners. Dunedin is Little Toronto; Fort Myers and Naples are full of Massholes. North of Tampa you have God's Waiting Room (Hernando and Pasco counties are #1 and #2 in the country for median age) and not much else until you hit the Redneck Riviera, the Panhandle, which has some of the best beaches in the country.

    The heat and humidity are oppressive, but there are very few places in Florida without thermonuclear air conditioning. My brother got married in Tampa on a Labor Day weekend and the temperature was 94 with 100% humidity. The A/C was such that I didn't take off my tuxedo jacket the whole day.

    Replies: @JMcG, @Muggles

    The heat and humidity are oppressive, but there are very few places in Florida without thermonuclear air conditioning. My brother got married in Tampa on a Labor Day weekend and the temperature was 94 with 100% humidity. The A/C was such that I didn’t take off my tuxedo jacket the whole day.

    I get a kick out of comments like this about weather. “Thermonuclear” a/c, heh.

    I live in the Houston area and this is the norm. All along the Gulf Coast, which is quite long.

    Yes, very unpleasant (in summer mainly) without a/c, though I’ve lived through summers without it.

    But we now read of huge blizzards in the NE, Atlantic coast. Often.

    “Thermonuclear” heating? No, not any longer. Good luck with those solar panels.

    Air conditioning became possible for single family homes and really, everywhere else in the 1950s. That is when the “Sun Belt” took off.

    Winters where I live are like summers up north, where I grew up. It takes years to get used to that. Summers (and shoulder seasons of spring, fall) you dress for the heat and keep the a/c going.

    Winters are often very nice, like summer elsewhere. Kids play outside, golfers, tennis all day, hiking and biking, marathons. Cold weather raised people don’t quite understand this until they live here a while. Many choose to stay.

    As for me, I enjoy hearing Green lefties complain about freezing in the dark in winter. Too bad we still sell them unfashionable fossil fuels. Now at \$100/barrel. Joe Biden, is there anything he can’t do?

  76. @JMcG
    @Arclight

    The economics of air conditioning are going to be interesting as we go down the renewable rabbit hole.

    Replies: @Muggles

    The economics of air conditioning are going to be interesting as we go down the renewable rabbit hole.

    Written by someone, no doubt, a Yankee. No offense intended.

    Texas produces more non fossil energy than any other state in the union. Lots of sunshine, often wind, and still have nukes. We’ll be fine.

    So all of the Greenies and their EVs will need much more juice than mere air conditioning. How much of Martha’s Vineyard will they cover in windmills and solar panels? Maybe just Queens?

    In commie Yankee land, they won’t build dams, nuke plants, let you frack, build wind power towers, put up solar panels (well, not many, also very dark in winter) and oh, even burn firewood in many places. Those server farms need a lot of juice too.

    The “economics of renewables” will be very interesting in places where you can freeze to death much of the year.

    I’m not saying you’re one of the insane climate hysterics. No offense intended. I’m all in favor of clean air and not gunking up the atmosphere.

    There are solutions of course. But the same people who decry fossil energy are also the magical thinkers who believe that their precious cell phones and big screen streaming TVs work on good intentions and warm feelings.

    Eventually eco nuts will either die out or start to embrace safe nuclear energy.

    • Replies: @JMcG
    @Muggles

    Perhaps I should have written climate control rather than air conditioning. It’s going to be funny when all those commies in Massachusetts try to run their heat pumps and charge their cars at the same time.

  77. @ScarletNumber
    @Mark Spahn (West Seneca, NY)

    Apparently Steve was out sick the day they taught this at UCLA

    Replies: @Intelligent Dasein, @Muggles

    Apparently Steve was out sick the day they taught this at UCLA

    Steve attended Rice University in Houston.

    But you can still blame UCLA for any and all of his educational deficiencies.

    • Replies: @ScarletNumber
    @Muggles

    Steve holds an MBA from UCLA

  78. @anon
    Rents are only part of the equation for landlords. Commercial property values are a function of A) rents, and B) the rent multiples that properties sell for. (In real estate, the term is "cap rate", which is the inverse of a P/E ratio.)

    Over the past year, multifamily cap rates have declined (i.e. rent multiples have risen) to levels previously considered ludicrous. In most places in the US, right now is a good time to be a landlord. You can sell your properties for a windfall if you want to walk away.

    I don't own any commercial real estate, but I work in a related field so I know people who do at a fairly large scale. As I understand it, the eviction moratoriums have had different effects in different places. In my area the government has reimbursed landlords for some of the lost rent from tenants who stopped paying during COVID. And a lot of renters were flush with cash from all of the helicopter money, so they stayed current on rent more than you might have expected.

    The true real estate losers of the past two years may turn out to be owners of office, not apartment, buildings. These owners haven't lost much of anything yet because their tenants sign long-term leases. Loads of massive downtown office buildings generated 98% rent collections even as they were maybe 10% physically occupied while the tenants' employees worked from home. But now that work-from-home is known to work reasonably well for extended periods, the longer-term future of office real estate is very uncertain.

    Replies: @Barnard, @prosa123

    But now that work-from-home is known to work reasonably well for extended periods, the longer-term future of office real estate is very uncertain.

    Unless the government actually does something and bans it.

  79. @Colin Wright
    It's all a question of where in Oakland, of course.

    Otherwise, Fremont, Ca being that low is interesting. I lived there back at the end of the Eighties. Horrifically anodyne, but it's hard to see anything going wrong. I wonder what's up?

    ...or down, I suppose. It did become known as 'Little Kabul' at some point. Is there a connection?

    Replies: @Farenheit, @International Jew, @Bardon Kaldlan

    Amy Schneider got mugged in Oaktown. I doubt the perps recognized,uhm,her.

    • Replies: @AceDeuce
    @Bardon Kaldlan


    Amy Schneider got mugged in Oaktown.
     
    Yeah, I saw that. Good thing they didn't try to rape "her". Talk about a plot twist...
  80. @JohnnyWalker123
    Can anyone here offer an opinion on Tampa, Florida? Good place to live?

    Replies: @Bill, @Veteran Aryan, @Anthony Aaron, @Jim Christian, @Brutusale, @Known Fact, @Bardon Kaldlan, @Reg Cæsar

    Nice place,but I can never go back there. Shot a man. Just to watch him die.

    • Replies: @Michaeloh
    @Bardon Kaldlan

    “ Nice place,but I can never go back there. Shot a man. Just to watch him die”
    Nah! You’re thinking of Reno, not Tampa.

  81. 1. Stoke riot and murder in the cities.
    2. Ensure a moratorium on rents cripples all but those with access to the Fed.
    3. Buy out weak holders of real estate at a steal.
    3. Profit!

    There, fixed that for ya!

    And that’s why you aren’t rolling in it.

    • Replies: @Achmed E. Newman
    @Bill Jones

    You got it, Bill!

    All of the moves we've seen lead to benefits for the Big-Biz - Big Gov partnership and screwage for the small guy.

  82. @Muggles
    @JMcG


    The economics of air conditioning are going to be interesting as we go down the renewable rabbit hole.
     
    Written by someone, no doubt, a Yankee. No offense intended.

    Texas produces more non fossil energy than any other state in the union. Lots of sunshine, often wind, and still have nukes. We'll be fine.

    So all of the Greenies and their EVs will need much more juice than mere air conditioning. How much of Martha's Vineyard will they cover in windmills and solar panels? Maybe just Queens?

    In commie Yankee land, they won't build dams, nuke plants, let you frack, build wind power towers, put up solar panels (well, not many, also very dark in winter) and oh, even burn firewood in many places. Those server farms need a lot of juice too.

    The "economics of renewables" will be very interesting in places where you can freeze to death much of the year.

    I'm not saying you're one of the insane climate hysterics. No offense intended. I'm all in favor of clean air and not gunking up the atmosphere.

    There are solutions of course. But the same people who decry fossil energy are also the magical thinkers who believe that their precious cell phones and big screen streaming TVs work on good intentions and warm feelings.

    Eventually eco nuts will either die out or start to embrace safe nuclear energy.

    Replies: @JMcG

    Perhaps I should have written climate control rather than air conditioning. It’s going to be funny when all those commies in Massachusetts try to run their heat pumps and charge their cars at the same time.

  83. @The Germ Theory of Disease
    @Bill

    "Florida is divided into three parts."

    Like omnia Gallia?

    Sorry, sometimes the schoolboy in me can't help it.

    Replies: @Bridgeport_IPA

    Gotta love a Julius Caesar reference.

  84. @JMcG
    @Charon

    Nothing is more stupid or boring than fine dining. Restaurants as restaurants have been around for what, 150 years? Hardly a key part of western civilization. Throwing away hundreds of dollars on 80.00 worth of food and wine prepared in a filthy kitchen by runny-nosed illegal immigrants show a remarkable lack of discernment.
    I’ll take Oklahoma any day.

    Replies: @prosa123

    Nothing is more stupid or boring than fine dining. Restaurants as restaurants have been around for what, 150 years? Hardly a key part of western civilization.

    Some of the very highest-end prix fixe restaurants in NYC and possibly elsewhere have taken things to an unprecedented level. When customers make reservations, which typically has to be several weeks in advance, they are required to pay the full costs of the meals (sometimes \$1,000 for two) at the same time. Refunds or reschedules are not allowed for any reasons, not even positive and documented Covid diagnoses.

    • Replies: @JMcG
    @prosa123

    Thanks for the confirmation.

  85. @Reg Cæsar
    @International Jew


    “Little Kabul” was a thing there in the 80s because Fremont was still such an overwhelmingly American city that Afghanis [sic] were noticeable.
     
    The first Afghan restaurant in the US was Caravan Serai in St Paul in 1962. Ironically, it closed for good during our original invasion, because the kitchen was flooded and it wasn't worth the cost to save. By then, there were several other Afghan eateries in the metro area. Some had belly dancers on the weekend.

    However, Afghans were definitely not noticeable in the area. That shows, as with That's, you can enjoy a foreign cuisine without everybody and his brother and his bacha/ladyboy coming over.

    The same city boasts the first Kurdish restaurant, as well: http://www.babanis.com/ Again, not a lot of Kurds to be seen.

    Replies: @International Jew

    Afghanis [sic]

    Sheesh! Give me credit for putting the h in the correct spot.

    • Replies: @Reg Cæsar
    @International Jew

    Actually, afghani is the currency. It's worth just under a penny. Grab some today. The Zimbabwe 100,000,000,000,000-dollar note is worth many times as much as it was when printed. Thus it's being counterfeited.

    Samsung/Google/Android autocorrupt changed "Thais" in my comment. I switched to the Fire.

    , @kaganovitch
    @International Jew

    Sheesh! Give me credit for putting the h in the correct spot.

    The reason Afghans keep winning wars is because there is no "i" in Afghans.

  86. @prosa123
    @JMcG

    Nothing is more stupid or boring than fine dining. Restaurants as restaurants have been around for what, 150 years? Hardly a key part of western civilization.

    Some of the very highest-end prix fixe restaurants in NYC and possibly elsewhere have taken things to an unprecedented level. When customers make reservations, which typically has to be several weeks in advance, they are required to pay the full costs of the meals (sometimes $1,000 for two) at the same time. Refunds or reschedules are not allowed for any reasons, not even positive and documented Covid diagnoses.

    Replies: @JMcG

    Thanks for the confirmation.

  87. Oh, so you have good-weather cities, plus New York and Boston on the right, and bad -weather cities, plus Oakland, Freemont, CA. and Lubbock on the left?

    Wow! That’s revealing.

  88. @International Jew
    @Reg Cæsar


    Afghanis [sic]
     
    Sheesh! Give me credit for putting the h in the correct spot.

    Replies: @Reg Cæsar, @kaganovitch

    Actually, afghani is the currency. It’s worth just under a penny. Grab some today. The Zimbabwe 100,000,000,000,000-dollar note is worth many times as much as it was when printed. Thus it’s being counterfeited.

    Samsung/Google/Android autocorrupt changed “Thais” in my comment. I switched to the Fire.

  89. @anonymous
    Don't forget that White Greed is a biggg reason why rents are going up.

    Replies: @Prof. Woland

    I live on the other side of the Oakland Hills and last year there was a noticeable number of younger hipster type families from there that moved in. Many who worked out of the homes due to covid figured it was better to buy where you could have a decent home office and some land. But the market has almost completely died. Higher interest rates don’t help and prices spiked last year as younger people got out of Dodge / SF / Oakland for greener pastures. The problem for the less quick or well healed is that there is nothing for sale now. I am in a town of 25k and there might be 12 properties for sale, a quarter of which are bare lots. People who would have settled in the East Bay are now skipping over and going for Sacramento, Reno, and further. The older whiter people with a lot of equity in their homes in the burbs will just sit tight and weather another storm much like in 2008 with the subprime melt down.

  90. @Almost Missouri
    @Reg Cæsar


    Why would you move to diversity?
     
    1) To make money.

    2) To find a spouse.

    At least that's what I see people doing.

    Note that they're not moving to diversity to do that. They're moving to concentrated population/cultural centers to do that. Those places tend to have a lot of diversity though, so it might look like they're moving to diversity.

    Replies: @Prof. Woland

    When I was a yuppie in the late 80’s I lived in the Castro for two years. Talk about diversity. Me and two other straight friends got the chance to rent a flat there. We were one of exactly two straight households on the small street where we lived.

    (safe enough but not the type of place you would want to raise kids. there is another super gay town in the Bay Area on the Russian River called Guerneville.)

    One of the things that has stayed with me was how much of a ghetto San Francisco is. There were people there from all over the country who chose to live there just so they could be around their own kind. Needless to say, we were not entirely welcome. Many gays (no lesbians) were closeted back wherever they came from and instinctively felt uncomfortable around straights. We knew who they were.

    Halloween on Castro was a hoot. I can remember when one of my roommate’s relative from Pennsylvania came to visit us. He was so freaked out. Gays have gaydar too or straightdar ( I just invented a word) and they would try to shit test people. For us it was just water off a duck’s back.

    Our band of brothers fell apart when we all got hitched or married and moved on. It was fun while it lasted but that was another era. It has gone downhill.

    • Replies: @YetAnotherAnon
    @Prof. Woland

    "Gays have gaydar too or straightdar ( I just invented a word) and they would try to shit test people. For us it was just water off a duck’s back."

    Back in the 70s it was called "freaking the hets" in the UK.

    When I lived in London in the 80s I caught a little echo when on a late-night tube two pretty, feminine lesbians seated next to me started kissing and ended up practically on my lap. My attitude was pretty much "ahh, bless you my children".

    There are a lot worse things can happen on late night tubes.

  91. @JohnnyWalker123
    Can anyone here offer an opinion on Tampa, Florida? Good place to live?

    Replies: @Bill, @Veteran Aryan, @Anthony Aaron, @Jim Christian, @Brutusale, @Known Fact, @Bardon Kaldlan, @Reg Cæsar

    Can anyone here offer an opinion on Tampa, Florida? Good place to live?

    They might see snow this weekend:

    ‘So you’re telling me there’s a chance’: Snow flurries possible this weekend in Tampa Bay?

    The State Fair starts in a couple of weeks. Check out Cracker Country on how to live cheap in the sticks.

    https://www.crackercountry.org/

  92. @International Jew
    @Reg Cæsar


    Afghanis [sic]
     
    Sheesh! Give me credit for putting the h in the correct spot.

    Replies: @Reg Cæsar, @kaganovitch

    Sheesh! Give me credit for putting the h in the correct spot.

    The reason Afghans keep winning wars is because there is no “i” in Afghans.

    • LOL: Polistra
  93. @Bardon Kaldlan
    @Colin Wright

    Amy Schneider got mugged in Oaktown. I doubt the perps recognized,uhm,her.

    Replies: @AceDeuce

    Amy Schneider got mugged in Oaktown.

    Yeah, I saw that. Good thing they didn’t try to rape “her”. Talk about a plot twist…

    • LOL: Achmed E. Newman
  94. @J.Ross
    OT -- a Norse anon updates the famous line, about the billionaire knowing to get out of the market when his chauffeur volunteered advice, for the instagram and tiktok age:

    I've found a genuinely foolproof way to get rich through investing:
    Read the market through women

    Basically, women are the ultimate top signal, of ANYTHING
    Whenever women, especially attractive ones, enter a business or express public interest in an investment, it's about to crash HARD
    This never fails, crypto, stocks, tech, whatever

    So here's how I've made over 300k
    --Accumulate lesser known projects
    --Wait for hype period
    --The MOMENT you see women, tiktok whores, female """influencers""" express interest, sell everything
    --Open a huge short
    The last part is the most important, even if you don't own the stock/crypto, you can still open a short

    I shorted crypto when I saw this
    I shorted Tesla when I saw some tiktok bimbo invest in it
    I shorted GME and AMC when I saw a pretty girl advocating for it

    Basically, women are the ultimate top signal
    The more attractive they are, the closer the crash is

    Take this knowledge for the next stock/crypto bullruns in 2023-24, and you will be rich
     
    I don't want this to be true but suspect it's irrefutable, and furthermore it coud be expanded to all the propped-up establishment-fetishized people. Anyone the bad guys want to win, anyone the establishment cannot bear to see criticized, anyone who needs government intervention for equity in a market economy.

    Replies: @Reg Cæsar

    Damn. Should have shorted Theranos…

    • Replies: @J.Ross
    @Reg Cæsar

    when you see top American military officers going for it, that's the signal to get out of Dodge ...

  95. @Bill Jones

    1. Stoke riot and murder in the cities.
    2. Ensure a moratorium on rents cripples all but those with access to the Fed.
    3. Buy out weak holders of real estate at a steal.
    3. Profit!

     

    There, fixed that for ya!

    And that's why you aren't rolling in it.

    Replies: @Achmed E. Newman

    You got it, Bill!

    All of the moves we’ve seen lead to benefits for the Big-Biz – Big Gov partnership and screwage for the small guy.

  96. @Known Fact
    @JohnnyWalker123

    Are you retiring or at some career point? I'd try someplace smaller up or down the Gulf Coast from the Tampa sprawl unless you need a lot of stimulation

    Replies: @JohnnyWalker123

    I’m looking for more affordable real-estate, but without sacrificing the amenities of living in a major metro. I’d like a metro that’s safe, livable, and reasonably-priced.

    • Replies: @Steve Sailer
    @JohnnyWalker123

    That used to be the Twin Cities.

    Replies: @JohnnyWalker123

    , @Justvisiting
    @JohnnyWalker123

    "metro that’s safe, livable, and reasonably-priced."

    Sounds crazy, but your best bet (if you can handle nasty cold weather) is Burlington, VT.

    The natives talk crazy lefty but are hilarious hypocrites.

    Replies: @JohnnyWalker123

    , @Known Fact
    @JohnnyWalker123

    This might be helpful, there's even a set of links to specific Tampa neighborhoods. Niche ranked Tampa 40th out of 228 places, but notice it got just a C for "crime and safety."

    https://patch.com/florida/southtampa/tampa-named-among-americas-top-50-best-places-live

    Replies: @JohnnyWalker123

    , @Truth
    @JohnnyWalker123

    Yes, you want to live in a modern city, where you can get a house for 1950's prices, someplace with all-white males, and mostly Asian females, and of course someplace your little toesies won't get cold, as you are looking at moving to Tampa.

    And a magical adaptation where your are 20 years younger and the Asian girls find you irresistible from day one, wouldn't hurt either.

    Good luck.

  97. @Brutusale
    @JohnnyWalker123

    Davis Islands, NICE! It's where I'd want to live if I were in Tampa.
    https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Davis_Islands_(Tampa)
    College Hill, not so much.
    https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/College_Hill_(Tampa)

    My College Hill story: back in the 90s my ex and I we visiting my parents, residents of a coastal community about 25 miles north of Tampa. One Saturday evening we decided to visit Ybor City, a funky tourist area in the old Cuban district of Tampa and home to the iconic Columbia Restaurant. As I was driving, my dad piped up from the back seat that he thought we missed the highway exit for Ybor and that I should get off at the next exit and we'll backtrack, which I did. We were making our way up a main thoroughfare when my mom asked, "Did that sign just say College Hill?". Then I heard her hit the door lock.

    The next two miles were just like a gangster rap video. I didn't stop for a red light or a stop sign until I saw a white face!

    The Palma Ceia neighborhood is nice. My parents used to have friends there. Carrollwood is a lovely older part of the city.

    Replies: @JohnnyWalker123

    Thanks for the informative & detailed answer. Very helpful.

  98. @JohnnyWalker123
    @Known Fact

    I'm looking for more affordable real-estate, but without sacrificing the amenities of living in a major metro. I'd like a metro that's safe, livable, and reasonably-priced.

    Replies: @Steve Sailer, @Justvisiting, @Known Fact, @Truth

    That used to be the Twin Cities.

    • Replies: @JohnnyWalker123
    @Steve Sailer

    Indeed.

    Let me reintroduce a post that I made a few years ago.

    I did my own analysis to determine the best states to live and raise a child. Here’s what I did to create my list.

    1. I inputed the rates of incarceration, overdose, teen births, death, and obesity for each state. However, I only utilized the data for the Non-Hispanic white populations of each state. That allows interstate comparisons, without race becoming a confounding factor.
    2. For America’s entire non-Hispanic white population, I found the national medians on the rates of incarceration, overdose, teen births, death, and obesity.
    3. I divided each state’s incarceration, overdose, teen pregnancy, death, and obesity rates by the respective national medians.
    4. By averaging together these modified rates, I computed an “Index of Misery” for each state.
    5. Higher the index, the worse off the population. Lower the index, better off the state. Above 1 = worse than average. Below 1 = better than average. You can make a relative comparison among our various states.
    6. The below chart applies only to NH-Whites.
    7. The further down the state, the better the situation. So Minnesota is #1, while West Virginia is in last place.

    https://imgur.com/a/wgQdSwX#vuFmL39

    Minnesota is a clear winner here. So the Twin Cities probably would've been the best major metro in early 2020.

    Sadly, no more. Though I suppose the suburbs are probably still fine.

    Omaha would seem to be a good choice. So would Des Moines, Iowa.

    There are other very good choices, but those are either smaller-sized metros or expensive large-sized metros. So there's often a trade off between metro size and housing costs. Thanks to mass immigration, financialization/speculation, and absentee foreign investors.

    Replies: @David Davenport

  99. @Reg Cæsar
    @J.Ross

    Damn. Should have shorted Theranos...


    https://www.ictandhealth.com/wp-content/uploads/2018/09/Fortune-Forbes-E-Holmes.2.jpg

    Replies: @J.Ross

    when you see top American military officers going for it, that’s the signal to get out of Dodge …

  100. @JohnnyWalker123
    @Known Fact

    I'm looking for more affordable real-estate, but without sacrificing the amenities of living in a major metro. I'd like a metro that's safe, livable, and reasonably-priced.

    Replies: @Steve Sailer, @Justvisiting, @Known Fact, @Truth

    “metro that’s safe, livable, and reasonably-priced.”

    Sounds crazy, but your best bet (if you can handle nasty cold weather) is Burlington, VT.

    The natives talk crazy lefty but are hilarious hypocrites.

    • Replies: @JohnnyWalker123
    @Justvisiting

    Thanks.

    With the growth in remote working, perhaps a large fraction of the population will move to these smaller-sized metros (like Burlington, Fargo, Sioux Falls, Lincoln, etc). These places are affordable, safe, and livable. As long as the medical care and schools are good, I think many would consider moving.

    The government should probably encourage this. I bet it'd increase the marriage & fertility rates.

    The government should build super fast bullet trains to these places, so people can get to other parts of the country quickly from these remote places.

    Replies: @David Davenport

  101. @Bill
    @JohnnyWalker123

    If you don't mind blazing hot and humid, it's very nice. Sarasota is even nicer. Florida is divided into three parts. The east is part of New York. The west is part of the Midwest. The north and much of the interior are part of the South.

    Replies: @Anon, @Brutusale, @The Germ Theory of Disease, @Bill Jones

    What a great summary, thanks for that.

  102. @JohnnyWalker123
    @Known Fact

    I'm looking for more affordable real-estate, but without sacrificing the amenities of living in a major metro. I'd like a metro that's safe, livable, and reasonably-priced.

    Replies: @Steve Sailer, @Justvisiting, @Known Fact, @Truth

    This might be helpful, there’s even a set of links to specific Tampa neighborhoods. Niche ranked Tampa 40th out of 228 places, but notice it got just a C for “crime and safety.”

    https://patch.com/florida/southtampa/tampa-named-among-americas-top-50-best-places-live

    • Thanks: JohnnyWalker123
    • Replies: @JohnnyWalker123
    @Known Fact

    Thanks. That link was very helpful.

    On various measures, Seattle does much better than I recall. That seems to be a city that's really moving on up, probably due to the software industry.

    In the past, you almost never heard about them. As recently as the late 70s, some people feared the metro might become de-populated. Quite a turn around.

    Replies: @Known Fact, @David Davenport

  103. @Bardon Kaldlan
    @JohnnyWalker123

    Nice place,but I can never go back there. Shot a man. Just to watch him die.

    Replies: @Michaeloh

    “ Nice place,but I can never go back there. Shot a man. Just to watch him die”
    Nah! You’re thinking of Reno, not Tampa.

  104. @JohnnyWalker123
    @Known Fact

    I'm looking for more affordable real-estate, but without sacrificing the amenities of living in a major metro. I'd like a metro that's safe, livable, and reasonably-priced.

    Replies: @Steve Sailer, @Justvisiting, @Known Fact, @Truth

    Yes, you want to live in a modern city, where you can get a house for 1950’s prices, someplace with all-white males, and mostly Asian females, and of course someplace your little toesies won’t get cold, as you are looking at moving to Tampa.

    And a magical adaptation where your are 20 years younger and the Asian girls find you irresistible from day one, wouldn’t hurt either.

    Good luck.

  105. @Steve Sailer
    @JohnnyWalker123

    That used to be the Twin Cities.

    Replies: @JohnnyWalker123

    Indeed.

    Let me reintroduce a post that I made a few years ago.

    I did my own analysis to determine the best states to live and raise a child. Here’s what I did to create my list.

    1. I inputed the rates of incarceration, overdose, teen births, death, and obesity for each state. However, I only utilized the data for the Non-Hispanic white populations of each state. That allows interstate comparisons, without race becoming a confounding factor.
    2. For America’s entire non-Hispanic white population, I found the national medians on the rates of incarceration, overdose, teen births, death, and obesity.
    3. I divided each state’s incarceration, overdose, teen pregnancy, death, and obesity rates by the respective national medians.
    4. By averaging together these modified rates, I computed an “Index of Misery” for each state.
    5. Higher the index, the worse off the population. Lower the index, better off the state. Above 1 = worse than average. Below 1 = better than average. You can make a relative comparison among our various states.
    6. The below chart applies only to NH-Whites.
    7. The further down the state, the better the situation. So Minnesota is #1, while West Virginia is in last place.

    View post on imgur.com

    Minnesota is a clear winner here. So the Twin Cities probably would’ve been the best major metro in early 2020.

    Sadly, no more. Though I suppose the suburbs are probably still fine.

    Omaha would seem to be a good choice. So would Des Moines, Iowa.

    There are other very good choices, but those are either smaller-sized metros or expensive large-sized metros. So there’s often a trade off between metro size and housing costs. Thanks to mass immigration, financialization/speculation, and absentee foreign investors.

    • Replies: @David Davenport
    @JohnnyWalker123

    That chart is no good. West Virginia, Kentucky, and Tennessee are good places to live, outside of Memphis, Nashville, Louisville, and similar towns with concentrations of you-know-who.

    Please don't move to those states if you vote Democrat.

  106. @Known Fact
    @JohnnyWalker123

    This might be helpful, there's even a set of links to specific Tampa neighborhoods. Niche ranked Tampa 40th out of 228 places, but notice it got just a C for "crime and safety."

    https://patch.com/florida/southtampa/tampa-named-among-americas-top-50-best-places-live

    Replies: @JohnnyWalker123

    Thanks. That link was very helpful.

    On various measures, Seattle does much better than I recall. That seems to be a city that’s really moving on up, probably due to the software industry.

    In the past, you almost never heard about them. As recently as the late 70s, some people feared the metro might become de-populated. Quite a turn around.

    • Replies: @Known Fact
    @JohnnyWalker123

    Seattle? I thought that was in serious leftist decline -- stick to Florida

    Replies: @JohnnyWalker123

    , @David Davenport
    @JohnnyWalker123

    On various measures, Seattle does much better than I recall. That seems to be a city that’s really moving on up, probably due to the software industry.

    In the past, you almost never heard about them. As recently as the late 70s, some people feared the metro might become de-populated. Quite a turn around.


    Johhny W., you're not one of us.

  107. @Intelligent Dasein
    @ScarletNumber


    Apparently Steve was out sick the day they taught this at UCLA.
     
    Actually, Steve's use of modus tollens is correct here and his one-line example of contraposition is formally valid.

    Any confusion about this probably results from the fact that his conditional statement ("Obviously, if I understood genius business strategies, I’d be rich") is not itself deductively certain. You can understand business strategies without being rich, as experience has demonstrated. So, while the argument may not be sound, it's logical form is unimpeachable.

    In matters of logic, it's always important to remember that formal validity and soundness are two different things. Any statement of the form "If P then Q; not Q; therefore, not P" is valid by definition, regardless of the soundness of the individual premises. For example:

    If Cary Grant is a mermaid, then the Moon is made of green cheese.
    The Moon is not made of green cheese.
    Therefore, Cary Grant is not a mermaid.

    The premises here are deliberately absurdist in order to illustrate the point. They are not accurate representations of reality and there is no causal connection between them, but the above argument is formally valid. If the Moon is not made of green cheese, then Cary Grant cannot be a mermaid. That's what the conditional is saying.

    "Thought itself moves nothing," as Aristotle said. The inability of logic alone to establish facts outside of experience is something that should be borne in mind by everyone who tends to be too mathematical about things. Actually existing entities are needed to provide the "oomph" to logical expressions. Reasoning about unreal things does not make them real; and to the extent that your perception of things is erroneous, you will be reasoning about unrealities.

    Case in point: Notice how it was quants like Sailer, Unz, Cochran, and Talib who were the most wrong about Covid-19. I'm sure their mathematics were all internally consistent, but the real virus simply isn't what they assumed it was.

    Replies: @ScarletNumber

    Yes, but UCLA at the very least should teach its MBAs to understand genius business strategies.

  108. @Muggles
    @ScarletNumber


    Apparently Steve was out sick the day they taught this at UCLA
     
    Steve attended Rice University in Houston.

    But you can still blame UCLA for any and all of his educational deficiencies.

    Replies: @ScarletNumber

    Steve holds an MBA from UCLA

  109. @JohnnyWalker123
    @Known Fact

    Thanks. That link was very helpful.

    On various measures, Seattle does much better than I recall. That seems to be a city that's really moving on up, probably due to the software industry.

    In the past, you almost never heard about them. As recently as the late 70s, some people feared the metro might become de-populated. Quite a turn around.

    Replies: @Known Fact, @David Davenport

    Seattle? I thought that was in serious leftist decline — stick to Florida

    • Replies: @JohnnyWalker123
    @Known Fact

    For those with a high-paying job at Amazon or Microsoft, Seattle (or at least the suburbs) is probably worthwhile. However, for a working-class person, that situation is obviously quite different. A working-class Seattle resident will likely be affected by high home prices, the increasing crime rate, and bizarre leftist policies. Pre-2020, the situation was a bit different. Seattle is a city that has a choice between whether it wants to be San Francisco or San Jose.

    Ironically, the entire situation was exactly the opposite back in the 70s. Back then, Seattle was a paradise for working-class people, but avoided by those with money and ambition. A bit boring, but the type of place where an average Joe Sixpack would live.

    Replies: @Known Fact

  110. @Justvisiting
    @JohnnyWalker123

    "metro that’s safe, livable, and reasonably-priced."

    Sounds crazy, but your best bet (if you can handle nasty cold weather) is Burlington, VT.

    The natives talk crazy lefty but are hilarious hypocrites.

    Replies: @JohnnyWalker123

    Thanks.

    With the growth in remote working, perhaps a large fraction of the population will move to these smaller-sized metros (like Burlington, Fargo, Sioux Falls, Lincoln, etc). These places are affordable, safe, and livable. As long as the medical care and schools are good, I think many would consider moving.

    The government should probably encourage this. I bet it’d increase the marriage & fertility rates.

    The government should build super fast bullet trains to these places, so people can get to other parts of the country quickly from these remote places.

    • Replies: @David Davenport
    @JohnnyWalker123

    The government should build super fast bullet trains to these places, so people can get to other parts of the country quickly from these remote places.

    No. See CA.'s experience with building high speed rail.

  111. @Known Fact
    @JohnnyWalker123

    Seattle? I thought that was in serious leftist decline -- stick to Florida

    Replies: @JohnnyWalker123

    For those with a high-paying job at Amazon or Microsoft, Seattle (or at least the suburbs) is probably worthwhile. However, for a working-class person, that situation is obviously quite different. A working-class Seattle resident will likely be affected by high home prices, the increasing crime rate, and bizarre leftist policies. Pre-2020, the situation was a bit different. Seattle is a city that has a choice between whether it wants to be San Francisco or San Jose.

    Ironically, the entire situation was exactly the opposite back in the 70s. Back then, Seattle was a paradise for working-class people, but avoided by those with money and ambition. A bit boring, but the type of place where an average Joe Sixpack would live.

    • Replies: @Known Fact
    @JohnnyWalker123

    Sounds like a reasonable summary of Seattle and its evolution.

    One more thing about Tampa (I lived in Central Florida for years without ever wanting to move there so I was interested in retroactively reading up on how the city has been doing.) Racial breakdown is just 43 percent white, 20-something percent black and 20-something Hispanic. In contrast my small NY county is 80 percent white and 3 percent black. It may sound mean and racist but I much prefer the latter

    Replies: @Justvisiting, @JohnnyWalker123

  112. @JohnnyWalker123
    @Known Fact

    For those with a high-paying job at Amazon or Microsoft, Seattle (or at least the suburbs) is probably worthwhile. However, for a working-class person, that situation is obviously quite different. A working-class Seattle resident will likely be affected by high home prices, the increasing crime rate, and bizarre leftist policies. Pre-2020, the situation was a bit different. Seattle is a city that has a choice between whether it wants to be San Francisco or San Jose.

    Ironically, the entire situation was exactly the opposite back in the 70s. Back then, Seattle was a paradise for working-class people, but avoided by those with money and ambition. A bit boring, but the type of place where an average Joe Sixpack would live.

    Replies: @Known Fact

    Sounds like a reasonable summary of Seattle and its evolution.

    One more thing about Tampa (I lived in Central Florida for years without ever wanting to move there so I was interested in retroactively reading up on how the city has been doing.) Racial breakdown is just 43 percent white, 20-something percent black and 20-something Hispanic. In contrast my small NY county is 80 percent white and 3 percent black. It may sound mean and racist but I much prefer the latter

    • Replies: @Justvisiting
    @Known Fact


    mean and racist
     
    Paying close attention to your environment is always a good idea.

    There is nothing "mean" about it.

    Anyone who tells you differently is your enemy.

    Replies: @JohnnyWalker123

    , @JohnnyWalker123
    @Known Fact


    In contrast my small NY county is 80 percent white and 3 percent black. It may sound mean and racist but I much prefer the latter.
     
    That may be the future for many Americans. Working online and living in a small, remote, largely-White county. Let's think of the benefits.

    -Low housing prices.
    -Low crime.
    -Little racial strife.
    -Conservative politics.
    -Easy access to nature.
    -Good schools.

    If they needed to go into the office a couple times per week, they could just live in some exurban county and commute a couple hours each way.
  113. @Jim Christian
    @JohnnyWalker123

    Go out to New Port Richey, Pasco County Florida. White, conservative, strong police agencies. Outside Tampa on the Gulf, it's ideal. Hot for sure May through September, it's quite temperate the rest of the year. It's where I snowbird, anyway.

    Replies: @Brutusale

    Yeah, Jim, but there is Route 19 to deal with!

    • Agree: Jim Christian
  114. @JMcG
    @Brutusale

    Fort Myers is a mighty thin crust of affluence on some of the worst black neighborhoods I’ve ever seen. It’s a little like LA in that the houses are singles with yards full of Palm Trees, but they are straight up ghettos.

    Replies: @Brutusale

    A huge problem for Northerners is the inability to parse Southern ghettoes. We’re used to projects, not single-family homes with palm trees.

    • Agree: JMcG
    • Replies: @JohnnyWalker123
    @Brutusale


    We’re used to projects, not single-family homes with palm trees.
     
    Someone once used almost exactly the same words to describe Miami.
  115. @Known Fact
    @JohnnyWalker123

    Sounds like a reasonable summary of Seattle and its evolution.

    One more thing about Tampa (I lived in Central Florida for years without ever wanting to move there so I was interested in retroactively reading up on how the city has been doing.) Racial breakdown is just 43 percent white, 20-something percent black and 20-something Hispanic. In contrast my small NY county is 80 percent white and 3 percent black. It may sound mean and racist but I much prefer the latter

    Replies: @Justvisiting, @JohnnyWalker123

    mean and racist

    Paying close attention to your environment is always a good idea.

    There is nothing “mean” about it.

    Anyone who tells you differently is your enemy.

    • Replies: @JohnnyWalker123
    @Justvisiting

    Everyone is anti-racist until he gets mugged late at night.

  116. @Known Fact
    @JohnnyWalker123

    Sounds like a reasonable summary of Seattle and its evolution.

    One more thing about Tampa (I lived in Central Florida for years without ever wanting to move there so I was interested in retroactively reading up on how the city has been doing.) Racial breakdown is just 43 percent white, 20-something percent black and 20-something Hispanic. In contrast my small NY county is 80 percent white and 3 percent black. It may sound mean and racist but I much prefer the latter

    Replies: @Justvisiting, @JohnnyWalker123

    In contrast my small NY county is 80 percent white and 3 percent black. It may sound mean and racist but I much prefer the latter.

    That may be the future for many Americans. Working online and living in a small, remote, largely-White county. Let’s think of the benefits.

    -Low housing prices.
    -Low crime.
    -Little racial strife.
    -Conservative politics.
    -Easy access to nature.
    -Good schools.

    If they needed to go into the office a couple times per week, they could just live in some exurban county and commute a couple hours each way.

  117. @Brutusale
    @JMcG

    A huge problem for Northerners is the inability to parse Southern ghettoes. We're used to projects, not single-family homes with palm trees.

    Replies: @JohnnyWalker123

    We’re used to projects, not single-family homes with palm trees.

    Someone once used almost exactly the same words to describe Miami.

  118. @Justvisiting
    @Known Fact


    mean and racist
     
    Paying close attention to your environment is always a good idea.

    There is nothing "mean" about it.

    Anyone who tells you differently is your enemy.

    Replies: @JohnnyWalker123

    Everyone is anti-racist until he gets mugged late at night.

  119. @JohnnyWalker123
    @Justvisiting

    Thanks.

    With the growth in remote working, perhaps a large fraction of the population will move to these smaller-sized metros (like Burlington, Fargo, Sioux Falls, Lincoln, etc). These places are affordable, safe, and livable. As long as the medical care and schools are good, I think many would consider moving.

    The government should probably encourage this. I bet it'd increase the marriage & fertility rates.

    The government should build super fast bullet trains to these places, so people can get to other parts of the country quickly from these remote places.

    Replies: @David Davenport

    The government should build super fast bullet trains to these places, so people can get to other parts of the country quickly from these remote places.

    No. See CA.’s experience with building high speed rail.

  120. @JohnnyWalker123
    @Steve Sailer

    Indeed.

    Let me reintroduce a post that I made a few years ago.

    I did my own analysis to determine the best states to live and raise a child. Here’s what I did to create my list.

    1. I inputed the rates of incarceration, overdose, teen births, death, and obesity for each state. However, I only utilized the data for the Non-Hispanic white populations of each state. That allows interstate comparisons, without race becoming a confounding factor.
    2. For America’s entire non-Hispanic white population, I found the national medians on the rates of incarceration, overdose, teen births, death, and obesity.
    3. I divided each state’s incarceration, overdose, teen pregnancy, death, and obesity rates by the respective national medians.
    4. By averaging together these modified rates, I computed an “Index of Misery” for each state.
    5. Higher the index, the worse off the population. Lower the index, better off the state. Above 1 = worse than average. Below 1 = better than average. You can make a relative comparison among our various states.
    6. The below chart applies only to NH-Whites.
    7. The further down the state, the better the situation. So Minnesota is #1, while West Virginia is in last place.

    https://imgur.com/a/wgQdSwX#vuFmL39

    Minnesota is a clear winner here. So the Twin Cities probably would've been the best major metro in early 2020.

    Sadly, no more. Though I suppose the suburbs are probably still fine.

    Omaha would seem to be a good choice. So would Des Moines, Iowa.

    There are other very good choices, but those are either smaller-sized metros or expensive large-sized metros. So there's often a trade off between metro size and housing costs. Thanks to mass immigration, financialization/speculation, and absentee foreign investors.

    Replies: @David Davenport

    That chart is no good. West Virginia, Kentucky, and Tennessee are good places to live, outside of Memphis, Nashville, Louisville, and similar towns with concentrations of you-know-who.

    Please don’t move to those states if you vote Democrat.

  121. @JohnnyWalker123
    @Known Fact

    Thanks. That link was very helpful.

    On various measures, Seattle does much better than I recall. That seems to be a city that's really moving on up, probably due to the software industry.

    In the past, you almost never heard about them. As recently as the late 70s, some people feared the metro might become de-populated. Quite a turn around.

    Replies: @Known Fact, @David Davenport

    On various measures, Seattle does much better than I recall. That seems to be a city that’s really moving on up, probably due to the software industry.

    In the past, you almost never heard about them. As recently as the late 70s, some people feared the metro might become de-populated. Quite a turn around.

    Johhny W., you’re not one of us.

  122. @Prof. Woland
    @Almost Missouri

    When I was a yuppie in the late 80's I lived in the Castro for two years. Talk about diversity. Me and two other straight friends got the chance to rent a flat there. We were one of exactly two straight households on the small street where we lived.

    (safe enough but not the type of place you would want to raise kids. there is another super gay town in the Bay Area on the Russian River called Guerneville.)

    One of the things that has stayed with me was how much of a ghetto San Francisco is. There were people there from all over the country who chose to live there just so they could be around their own kind. Needless to say, we were not entirely welcome. Many gays (no lesbians) were closeted back wherever they came from and instinctively felt uncomfortable around straights. We knew who they were.

    Halloween on Castro was a hoot. I can remember when one of my roommate's relative from Pennsylvania came to visit us. He was so freaked out. Gays have gaydar too or straightdar ( I just invented a word) and they would try to shit test people. For us it was just water off a duck's back.

    Our band of brothers fell apart when we all got hitched or married and moved on. It was fun while it lasted but that was another era. It has gone downhill.

    Replies: @YetAnotherAnon

    “Gays have gaydar too or straightdar ( I just invented a word) and they would try to shit test people. For us it was just water off a duck’s back.”

    Back in the 70s it was called “freaking the hets” in the UK.

    When I lived in London in the 80s I caught a little echo when on a late-night tube two pretty, feminine lesbians seated next to me started kissing and ended up practically on my lap. My attitude was pretty much “ahh, bless you my children“.

    There are a lot worse things can happen on late night tubes.

  123. @Farenheit
    @International Jew

    IJ,

    If you're in the area, drive through Niles Canyon. At the beginning of the canyon there's a really nice park called Vallejo Mills. When I was a young buck my Boy Scout troop would have courts of honor there in the summer.

    Anyway, it now has about 30 ramshackle RVs parked there with piles of junk and trash strewn hither and yon. The city cleaned them out about a year ago when they first showed up, they came right back and the city's done nothing since.

    In southern Fremont, down near Tesla in the "warehouse district" there's these campground here and there as well.

    Replies: @danand

    “In southern Fremont, down near Tesla in the “warehouse district” there’s these campgrounds here and there as well.”

    Farenheit, come on, there aren’t that many campgrounds…

    Took this shot a few hours back, Tesla’s factory is just over the freeway (880), about a mile South:

    freemp

    This home has taken roots in this spot, along with a handful of others, for several months.

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