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From ITV:
British government wants UK to acquire coronavirus ‘herd immunity’, writes Robert Peston
The strategy is to allow the virus to pass through the population.
The key phrase we all need to understand is “herd immunity” – which is what happens to a group of people or animals when they develop sufficient antibodies to be resistant to a disease.
The strategy of the British government in minimising the impact of Covid-19 is to allow the virus to pass through the entire population so that we acquire herd immunity, but at a much delayed speed so that those who suffer the most acute symptoms are able to receive the medical support they need, and such that the health service is not overwhelmed and crushed by the sheer number of cases it has to treat at any one time.
The government’s experts – the chief medical officer and the chief scientific advisor – have made two big judgements.
First, as the World Health Organisation on Wednesday in effect conceded, that there is no way now of preventing the virus sweeping across Africa, Asia and the Americas – which in practice means that it will be an ever-present threat to the UK, unless and until a mass vaccine is available for use.
Second, the kind of coercive measures employed by China in Wuhan and Hubei have simply locked the virus behind the closed doors of people’s homes.
And just as soon as the constraints on freedom of movement are lifted there, the monstrous virus will rear its hideous face again.
What are the consequences for the UK of these judgements, which the Prime Minister and Health Secretary are accepting?
We will know the detail later on Thursday, after the Cobra meeting of ministers and experts make the formal decision to move from the phase of containing the virus to delaying the inevitable epidemic.
But we already know that at the heart of their plans are increasing the proportion of the population able to be tested and also what’s known as “social distancing”.
In the first instance, this will mean encouraging anyone showing even the mild symptoms – such as a dry cough – to self-isolate at home.
But what it does not mean, at least yet, is school closures or the banning of mass events like football matches.
There are a few reasons why school closures are not regarded as sensible, not least that children themselves are the least at risk from the virus – although they may well be an important channel of infection-transmission to older people who are at risk.
However, the government’s main argument against closing schools is it would – at a stroke – massively deplete the manpower of hospitals and care homes, because vast numbers of medical staff would be forced to stay home to look after their children.
And at the heart of the UK’s challenge – as confirmed on Wednesday in the Budget with its extra £5 billion for the NHS, as a down payment on the needed extra beds and relevant kit – is how to make sure hospitals have the resources to treat the expected surge in those needing urgent attention.
For what it’s worth, ministers are looking with grim bemusement at the debate in football’s governing bodies about banning the public from stadia.
They fear this fuels alarmism and do not think playing matches behind closed doors is necessary at this stage.
The goal of letting the soccer season play out in front of packed stadia appears to be to have fewer but younger Brits.
Here’s the British government’s 2011 pandemic flu plan. On the positive side, they’ve got a plan. On the other hand, is it the right plan?
Nothing will cause panic more than outbreaks in schools.
Herd immunity? Do we have herd immunity to other corona viruses?
I the bunch of people surrounding you have had this year's cold already, then you are not badly off *staying* in their midst.
It’ll be an interesting epidemiological experiment, if nothing else.
https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=XQ4Y9QPOzmA&list=PLiZxWe0ejyv-rFAkPPis46XV4InlfJOKD&index=1
Chickenpox. Same concept.
Perhaps there’s a case to be made for banning large groups meeting indoors but a weaker one for banning outdoor meetings.
“the chief medical officer and the chief scientific advisor have made two big judgements … which the Prime Minister and Health Secretary are accepting”: that may be a wise way to go about it. The difficulty is that so much is still unknown that we are reliant on judgements not on near-certainties.
I cannot believe I lived to see a President have to go on TV to tell a nation to wash its hands.
We need to lock everyone on the left side of the Bell Curve in their homes until November 3rd.
Plenty of people are simply filthy. Only now that they perceive their own hands as a threat to the health of themselves instead of everybody else do we have a reasonable expectation that they'll wash their own hands on a regular basis.
2022 Biden: “You gotta wash your ass, Jack”
Early in his administration, President Obola nagged Americans about maintaining proper tire pressure to increase fuel economy. Also, his HHS secretary Sebelius demonstrated proper sneezing technique during the pig flu ''''crisis''''.
“Let Mikey try it.”
I believe in trying a variety of approaches, as long as the really stupid ones are left to other countries.
“Locked behind closed doors”? Really? Is that how it works? Even if your 14 days or whatever is up you’re still infectious?
I hate the British government and ruling classes so much that I’ll condemn whatever they do out of pure spite and bile.
The British people are okay, though, and I hope that the lads from the old Top Gear show are fine and healthy.
Doesn’t ‘fewer but younger Brits’ mean the population’s acceleration to a more vibrant (and Labor voting) population would pick up speed?
I am told one prime minister claimed immigrants who arrived in 1948 and onwards would go back to their homelands because of the 'cold climate'. Today there are millions. He was a member of the Labour Party.
One of my neighbours is a nurse at the local hospital so I asked her if she had seen any cases of the dreaded COVID, she said no so I went for a bus ride to the nearest supermarket. Everything was absolutely normal except that two Chinese kids were wearing surgical masks. Moral of the story is to never trust the media.
That’s an interesting concept. I was thinking about something similar.
Maybe you can isolate the high risk individuals for say, a month or two while the rest of society is encouraged to get the virus. Nursing homes go into lockdown and half the carers self-isolate. The other half get the virus. Then the recovered staff go back to work and the remainder are infected.
Smokers, and the elderly go into lockdown while the rest of society gains herd immunity. Because they are low risk, not too many hospital beds are occupied.
What is wrong with this plan?
https://www.zerohedge.com/health/hubei-doctors-warn-even-deadlier-coronavirus-reinfection-causing-sudden-heart-attacks
There may be flaws in the UK strategy.
https://www.worldometers.info/coronavirus/country/uk/
SARS was like this.
https://www.sciencedaily.com/releases/2020/02/200228142018.htm
But it would be racist.
If everyone needs to get the virus so that we needn't worry about it for a generation by which time it may be gone, then you cannot protect the elderly because the majority of them are white and it would be unfair and racist to have a policy that encourages young pakistanis to get the virus while shielding elderly white people from it.
In a mono-ethnic society your plan would be taken seriously and possibly implemented. Heck, a mono ethnic society isn't even necessary, just one that isn't obsessed with identity politics and is capable of dealing fairly with people of any race color creed or age, as the enlightened constitutional authors of all Western civilizations insisted.
q
And when you get laid low by the virus, the NHS is your only option.
Will we see the emergence of coronavirus medical tourism? A bunch of sick people charter a plane to a remote airfield in a third world country where beds and ventilators are available in a prefab hospital building manned by Indian doctors and Filipino nurses
We’re living in the UK now. My wife was set to go visit family stateside in a few weeks, looks like that’s in doubt. I’m not seeing much panic buying (of anything really) in the local stores where we live…at least not yet. I apologize but I don’t watch television so I’m not sure how they’re reacting/overreacting here.
I’m hoping this thing peters out soon.
Aren’t a lot of Brits already practising ‘social distancing’ and spending their lives self-isolated at home as measures to protect themselves from the Allahu Akbar virus, a sudden attack of which can prove deadly, mainly because the main symptom is massive blood loss?
Never underestimate British incompetence.
I am told one prime minister claimed immigrants who arrived in 1948 and onwards would go back to their homelands because of the ‘cold climate’. Today there are millions. He was a member of the Labour Party.
In other news, the UK’s National Health Service is preparing to treat those who lack herd immunity with their strategic stockpile of leeches.
Odd then that we are NOT banning flights from England.
I suspect Trump knows some ghastly things he’s not telling us. Watch his address to the nation from Wednesday night; at 39 seconds he starts to cry.
According to a government site, the plan is in three phases – (a) contain, (b) delay and (c) research.
The difficulty I see is Lebensraum, especially given England is overcrowded thanks to alien imports who are already responsible for making London the ‘Tuberculosis Capital of Western Europe’.
For example there is potential for rapid spread in their badly run and congested prisons that are full of ‘diversity’ felons (about a quarter of those incarcerated in England and Wales). Riots are probable as has already happened in Italian jails over the virus.
The UK government is probably the most rational and competent in the world right now. Not just on this response but in general. That is an effect of our most recent election and some fortunate HR decisions.
The truth about this particular Coronavirus is that you can quarantine your country, destroy your economy, send your people into panic and suffer the resulting deaths from these man-made factors or you can just take it. If you just take it and ameliorate the worst effects you will obviously get deaths and suffering but possibly not more than the alternative. Furthermore, since this virus is now here to stay, you will constantly be at risk of the infection being reintroduced into your population.
China made a valiant effort, but unless they want everyone locked up forever, they will need to quarantine all travelers to China forever. And that really isn’t going to happen.
Unless a vaccine quickly appears…but that seems unlikely, especially once you ignore PR efforts by random assorted second-rate research firms.
Herd immunity, for those who don’t get it, is that enough people are immune that the virus has an R0 of less than 1.
Imagine if we had responded to 9/11 with "Huh, is that all you've got?" and moved on.
Getting on a plane in a few hours, for a trip that can’t be put off. Hope the airlines are still in operation a week from now so I can come back. Thought I might be coming down with a cold a few days ago, but I wasn’t. Even if it had been just an ordinary cold, it would have made the flight soooooo awkward!
Most of the private schools in Bay Area closed for online classes. Commercial construction flourishing. Don’t know about retail, restaurants etc. 2 Chinese guys just delivered furniture. No masks. Chinese areas in Ca like San Gabriel in S. Ca, Millbrae, San Francisco few problems.I don’t believe the media so I’m not worried.
There will probably be insurmountable political pressure to get to a vaccine faster than the oft quoted 12-18 months starting in a few weeks once the obvious implications of our new reality make themselves apparent. As Greg has pointed out (and he has been by far the best and furthest ahead of the curve analyst on this topic) it’s so similarly difficult to “slow the spread” as it is to “stop the spread,” that doing the former makes no sense. It requires massive social distancing until there is a vaccine. But here’s the rub: it *also* requires draconian travel restrictions. No flights from anywhere with uncontrolled spread. No one with that passport comes in. No trains. Border guards. That can be done, and of course, it MUST be done, whether your goal is to stop or just slow the spread. R0 can’t be held at approximately 1 if there are plague flights full of infected landing every day at Heathrow from the Middle East or Africa.
Also, as they found out in Italy, letting it rip through society is not tenable either. There’s a huge political contradiction in here. Voters a) aren’t going to volunteer to lay down and die to solve this problem; b) elites are not going to like having to suspend globalism for a year plus to protect their citizens from mass death and c) nobody is going to enjoy life under stringent social distancing very much. Those three things add up to you may finally see elites and the broader public push back on why we can’t streamline vaccine testing since we already have candidates in hand.
What the City of London wants, the City of London gets.
It’s not a completely stupid plan. (Though I am unclear how they plan to control the speed of the spread, maybe through rolling regional quarantines?)
The issue is, do subsequent infections lead to more severe symptoms? Does it induce a more aggressive immune response in individuals with healthy immune systems that might be too aggressive? (Like what we maybe saw with a lot of the younger doctors in Wuhan) So when the additional waves of the virus come in winter this could actually be the worst idea anyone ever had about anything. 1918 flu is now believed to have killed the young through cytokine storms.
It is also out of sync with the policies being adopted by their neighbours (The Republic of Ireland has just instituted a less severe version of the policies adopted by Denmark yesterday and will probably upgrade them very soon), so it could lead to the very travel isolation and disruption the policies are designed to avoid.
It’s a horrible idea. The UK has 65 million people, so if 10 % of virus carriers are hospitalized and 2% die, we are talking about 6.5 million hospitalizations and 1.3 million desths in the UK. It would be impossible to handle even if “spread.out”. The country has .far far less than 6.5 million hospital beds. All for avoiding the inconvenience of closing schools and most jobs for a while.
Herd immunity only works if the immune individuals cannot be carriers whilst immune. But just because my body can fight off a disease doesn’t mean I can’t be carrying wuflu viruses on my hands etc and spread them to vulnerable people that way.
https://www.ovg.ox.ac.uk/news/herd-immunity-how-does-it-work
Q: Does herd immunity work for all diseases?
Note the answer to this question – ie that herd immunity only works for contagious diseases, but not from diseases you pick up from the environment. So, unless people immune to wuflu are sweating antibodies, it could be all over their skin, clothes etc. This also applies to other diseases, of course.
There has been some research on this, though like everything else, there's a very limited data set to work with:
They probably want to keep the schools open to help hide the demographic transformation that would be visible if the kids were on the streets.
We need to lock everyone on the left side of the Bell Curve in their homes until November 3rd.
Surely you’ve been in a men’s room and seen men leave the urinals or stalls and walk right out of the bathroom? These people then go about their daily business, touching all manner of things that you will then have to touch – perhaps even shaking your hand.
Plenty of people are simply filthy. Only now that they perceive their own hands as a threat to the health of themselves instead of everybody else do we have a reasonable expectation that they’ll wash their own hands on a regular basis.
He was a waiter there.
He was black.
I really wish I had said something to the management.
Is it established that infected people eventually lose their contagiousness? After how much time? How does that work? Does the virus simply run out of cells to infect?
It was crazy to watch the match at Anfield last night. Spain had already surpassed France as being in second place (With a much smaller population) of cases in Europe.
I actually saw a very old woman in a wheelchair at the sidelines. The captains and ref did nudge elbows instead of shake hands, as did the managers, but the celebrating Athletico Madrid players ignored that completely and much physical contact ensued when they won. Not to mention the match went into extra time so an additional 40-50 minutes of everyone being packed in the grounds.
Good match though.
Not long after the match was over that one of the Juventus players, Daniele Rugani, was confirmed to have coronavirus. I don’t think there is a better way to contract this virus than playing a match against somebody with it, breathing heavily and getting physically close. Though played with no crowd, foreign teams are still playing Italian teams, or were until this. Who knows if it might be spread far this way.
Try a six hour flight where the air is circulated throughout the plane every 20 minutes. That will beat rubbing up against a sweaty dago every time,
As the Chinese coronavirus spreads, has China continued to allow the wet markets to operate?
And Trump just banned travel from Europe – except from the UK.
But then again, the justification for mass immigration – to support an old and economically unproductive population – will be gone as well.
I don’t see how any plan other than flattening the curve(FTC from nowd on) is viable. It’s so widespread at this point that it can’t be stopped.
Edit: My globo-mega corp, which provides a critical service to the American economy(and the world to a lesser extent) is discovering it’s disaster plan is really a regional, short term disaster plan. We don’t have enough VPN licenses or VPN bandwidth. We can survive hurricanes and blizzards, but this is, uh, going to be challenging.
There are free/open source solutions which are great, but after an annoying and complicated setup process during which it mostly doesn’t work.
bandwidth will be exciting too. Top universities like MIT which have as much bandwidth as most countries will be fine. what about midwest U? these are the bigger issues, not toilet paper.
This is
neither a new or unique strategie. France Germany Italy
do the same thing, because there isn’t any chance
to act really different.
Whether one closes schools , stop soccer events etc
is just nuances.
The hope/goal is simply to bring down infection rates to a
number managable in clinics.
The only difference is that the British speak about
herd immunity openly, other governments dont
I’ve read that among Europeans the English and Germans have the widest “personal space”, the Greeks and Italians the narrowest. I don’t see Englishmen doing that double-kiss whenever they meet. That should slow down virus spreading a little.
It might also explain the New Rochelle outbreak .
The 2011 UK plan seems to be well thought out and based on medical expertise and based on utilization of existing resources. I cannot imagine Boris Johnson single-handedly countermanding the plan based on advice from Fox News carnival barkers.
Naturally acquired “herd immunity” is the process by which mass vaccination of the whole population (when a vaccine becomes available) is avoided by having everyone exposed to the virus, and then only new entrants need to be vaccinated, though herd immunity is normally acquired through vaccination.
It is a good long term approach, but does not necessarily solve short term problems.
With TB, the opposite strategy is used, by which the Purified Protein Derivative test is used to determine whether individuals have ever been exposed, and then further tests such as X-ray done to determine whether there is active TB, in which case the individual is treated with medications until free of the bacterium. Of course, TB kills you rather slowly, so the process is different.
When a population has a herd immunity of about 83%, then it is more or less impossible for a future epidemic to occur.
But why are we not hearing about the United States’s national plan for a flu epidemic, and why has it not been activated, or is that all devolved to state level and therefore too complicated to study on a state by state level. If that is the case, might we not think about banning travel across state borders?
Amused the Irish government is now shutting schools and other measures, a bit late given the large number of Irish having just been at Cheltenham drinking gambling with the mass crowds at the racecourse.
https://youtu.be/0EO_r8HnD1s
I'm worried about you Steve, you are turning in to Howard Hughes.
https://www.theguardian.com/us-news/live/2020/mar/12/donald-tump-coronavirus-travel-ban-joe-biden-bernie-sanders-stock-markets-live-updates
Herd immunity? BS! What about the danger of covid-9 mutating further? A bad plan is worse than having no plan at all.
Yes, but chickenpox doesn’t kill 2% of the infected.
I wonder if the government is aware what the public response to this news is likely to be? I’d say it’s likely to be very, very negative.
“First thing we do is, let’s kill all our voters”
Off topic, here’s some light relief for Steve. Please, please, won’t someone think of the 5-star restaurants?
https://www.theguardian.com/food/2020/mar/12/skill-to-work-in-a-restaurant-immigration-brexit-jay-rayner
Dover soles rotting on the plates.
Governments seem to like doing that every so often. And the voters aren’t well-defended from it, because they generally are not psychopaths, and can’t always see it coming.
French are discovering soap and you see many French here washing their hands after going to the toilets (sorry Americans, bathroom) or even before having the 2 hours lunch break … except that, I don’t see much change here despite media saying restaurants are empty.
The real point of herd immunity is to expose the least vulnerable part of the population to a disease, e.g., chickenpox, which is basically harmless in toddlers but can be serious in adults. Older children and adults who suffer the disease in childhood are immune and mothers transfer passive immunity to infants via breast milk.
This is arguably what China is transitioning too.
Lie about the numbers to avoid panic, take obvious containment steps short of full shutdown, let it run.
Their work from home ability is pretty limited though with their giant cities, factories, mass transit, and tiny apartments without room for home offices.
Wuhan has a larger population than New York City. How many of us had heard of it 3 months ago?
Naturally acquired "herd immunity" is the process by which mass vaccination of the whole population (when a vaccine becomes available) is avoided by having everyone exposed to the virus, and then only new entrants need to be vaccinated, though herd immunity is normally acquired through vaccination.
It is a good long term approach, but does not necessarily solve short term problems.
With TB, the opposite strategy is used, by which the Purified Protein Derivative test is used to determine whether individuals have ever been exposed, and then further tests such as X-ray done to determine whether there is active TB, in which case the individual is treated with medications until free of the bacterium. Of course, TB kills you rather slowly, so the process is different.
When a population has a herd immunity of about 83%, then it is more or less impossible for a future epidemic to occur.
But why are we not hearing about the United States's national plan for a flu epidemic, and why has it not been activated, or is that all devolved to state level and therefore too complicated to study on a state by state level. If that is the case, might we not think about banning travel across state borders?
I have to say that the conduct of the government and media has been level headed and rational. Sensible precautions taken and information disseminated. Case tracking of contacts has been first rate with Britain have a very controlled outbreak in contrast to our neighbours. Same approach has been taken by the Germans.
Amused the Irish government is now shutting schools and other measures, a bit late given the large number of Irish having just been at Cheltenham drinking gambling with the mass crowds at the racecourse.
I’m worried about you Steve, you are turning in to Howard Hughes.
“ We don’t have enough VPN licenses or VPN bandwidth. ”
There are free/open source solutions which are great, but after an annoying and complicated setup process during which it mostly doesn’t work.
This is known as the Harold Shipman strategy. The Brits are very good at Soylent Greening their elderly.
Corona-chan, please kill every one of the racism scam hucksters who persist in their scamming during an emergency, and everyone who argues against quarantine, but spare the hand-washer and the self-isolator.
Appears to be literally true.
I’ve never actually met a hasid jew, but I’ve been around the Amish who dress similarly and eschew parts of modernity, and they often have BO.
Not that I am complaining. Hasids and Amish are whites with TFR of 5+, doing the job of making white babies the rest of us are mostly failing at.
https://eu.lohud.com/story/news/2020/03/05/coronavirus-new-rochelle-case-stretches-to-aipac-washington/4962585002/
https://forward.com/news/440987/live-updates-coronavirus-covid-19-new-york-city-jewish-community/
https://www.nytimes.com/2020/03/09/nyregion/coronavirus-purim-new-york.html
https://www.dailymail.co.uk/news/article-8092395/Doctor-New-York-hospital-self-isolates-coronavirus-fears.html
and laptops come from China. Staffing up work from home when people don’t have desktops anymore, only phones, means issuing devices. How many already made devices exist to be issued?
bandwidth will be exciting too. Top universities like MIT which have as much bandwidth as most countries will be fine. what about midwest U? these are the bigger issues, not toilet paper.
Reminds me of One of those Companies™ where bossman suddenly discovered due to “unforeseen circumstances” that E-Mail Encryption might be A Good Thing® and asked me out of the blue to implement that companywide maybe during this afternoon maybe?
I just scoffed.
This project was dropped quietly, I guess the baddies are still reading the e-mails as they are sent out.
Meanwhile, the Rothbard Institute writes:
The CDC’s Budget Is Larger Now Than Under Obama
This is a viable policy; but without self-isolation of the old and sick, it might lead to as many as 400,000 deaths. A huge number, but only an additional 50% above the usual annual death rate of 800,000, and almost entirely consisting of people whose life expectancy was already short because of pre-existing medical conditions.
This is the basic problem of lockdown measures – they will not be successful if they are lifted before the pandemic has run its course worldwide. We have yet to see how the Chinese authorities will deal with this issue.
The question is, will the Government hold its nerve as the numbers of dead pass milestone figures: 100; 1,000; 10,000; 100,000? Instead, it is likely to resort to tough measures so that the public, as well as the Government, feel that they are “doing something”.
Let's look on the bright side: if they wipe out coronavirus in the UK without achieving "herd immunity", they will need to ban travel from the Third World for at least a year, in order to prevent reinfection.
I don’t know how many people are too many people and how dense a population can acceptably become. That’s up to a society to decide. San Francisco tolerates shit and needles on it’s streets. The UK has a lot of people. It has very little natural areas left. Even its rural areas are dense, by American standards anyway. I occasionally scan sub-reddits for the major UK urban areas. You see a lot of complaining about how expensive it is to live in a UK city and the hopes of ever owning a house are out of reach for many. The younger generation isn’t as well off as their parents. Maybe the UK government sees a natural culling as… natural.
Sounds like their response to the potato famine, let nature run its course. Tell the brits to move to a warmer climate and leave the isles to the muslims.
It’s not a plan. It’s an acceptance of what’s coming. The truth is that there was a window of opportunity to stop this thing dead while it was only in China. Now it’s too late – the genie is out of the bottle and the only thing that can be done is mitigation. Here in the US, almost everyone is still in denial about it and hospitals still act criminally stupid by no immediately isolating everyone with a fever and cough.
Hey, it worked for handguns!
This is not a name I would trust.
https://youtube.com/watch?v=y9StWPATQ5Q
Posted without comment:
Justin Trudeau & Wife Self-Quarantine After She Developed ‘Virus-Liked Symptoms’ Following Trip Abroad: Virus Updates
https://www.zerohedge.com/geopolitical/eu-leaders-slam-trumps-unliteral-travel-ban-global-outbreak-death-toll-passes-4500
“On the positive side, they’ve got a plan. On the other hand, is it the right plan?”
We don’t know, that is why you get paid the big bucks to NOTICE. It just seems that you are hedging your bets and playing things to the middle. I mean, it’s fine to not go out on a limb, but then again, you do venture out that far. And, while it’s interesting to discuss what other nations are doing to combat the coronavirus, how about using those pattern recognition skills for our country?
For example, what do you think about Trump and Pence making statements about coronavirus that seemingly contradict or undermine the advice given by professions. Should they not turn the issue over primarily to the appropriate federal agencies and experts, rather than have Jared Kushner be front and center on this monumental issue? And why did the U.K. receive an exemption? Should we not focus on layered community mitigation measures? Where is the Trump and Pence on this component? And, why is Trump making China and Europe a scapegoat while trying to distance himself from the markets tanking during his watch? Did he not take credit for the Dow’s explosion during his administration?
Let’s start NOTICING these important topics rather screeching how another black author and her hair.
Unless we have martial law, the President's powers are limited.
Until that happens, we're at the mercy of our state governments and local boards.
In the super-zip where I live, the local school board has really dragged their feet in closing schools in spite of confirmed COVID-19 infections within one degree of separation from public school students.
We need to lock everyone on the left side of the Bell Curve in their homes until November 3rd.
Which year?
Seems like someone was saying that one could be reinfected with covid19, implying immunity wasnt possible with this new virus. I hope they were wrong. I hope once ya get it and get over it, you should be immune for a the rest of the year like with the flu most years.
It should be illegal to create new viruses in labs in all countries. Violating nations should be North Korea-level ostracized economically, etc. Too dangerous not to.
Assume the worst until proven otherwise
Unusual, but I found a lot of thoughtful and well written comments here. Thanks, all!
Naturally acquired "herd immunity" is the process by which mass vaccination of the whole population (when a vaccine becomes available) is avoided by having everyone exposed to the virus, and then only new entrants need to be vaccinated, though herd immunity is normally acquired through vaccination.
It is a good long term approach, but does not necessarily solve short term problems.
With TB, the opposite strategy is used, by which the Purified Protein Derivative test is used to determine whether individuals have ever been exposed, and then further tests such as X-ray done to determine whether there is active TB, in which case the individual is treated with medications until free of the bacterium. Of course, TB kills you rather slowly, so the process is different.
When a population has a herd immunity of about 83%, then it is more or less impossible for a future epidemic to occur.
But why are we not hearing about the United States's national plan for a flu epidemic, and why has it not been activated, or is that all devolved to state level and therefore too complicated to study on a state by state level. If that is the case, might we not think about banning travel across state borders?
OK, I see that the Guardian has just reported that Trump is considering travel restrictions to California and Washington states. Good to know that the White House mines this board for policy ideas.
https://www.theguardian.com/us-news/live/2020/mar/12/donald-tump-coronavirus-travel-ban-joe-biden-bernie-sanders-stock-markets-live-updates
After a lot of Sturm und Drang, this is what the default policy will be for most nations. Containment and social distancing can only go so far (in time). Absent a vaccine, CV will reach a Darwinian equilibrium like other microbiota. We don’t make a lot of noise about “colds” though lots of elders pass away from its complications.
Is this satire?
For anyone interested in studying the subject in more depth, this is a great link to reviews of the scientific evidence based value of various flu-fighting strategies, such as closing schools, use of masks, effect of mass gatherings such as sports events, use of antibiotics, vaccines, and several other topics.
https://www.gov.uk/government/publications/review-of-the-evidence-base-underpinning-the-uk-influenza-pandemic-preparedness-strategy
Here is a short quote from just one of the papers to give some flavor of the content. This is about the pros and cons of school closures.
Executive Summary
Background: School closure has been recommended as a potential component of a mitigation strategy during an influenza pandemic, and schools were closed in the UK and elsewhere during the 2009 pandemic. This report aims to inform the development of options for policy in influenza pandemics by collating and updating the evidence base concerning the effects of school closure on influenza transmission.
(Paragraphs omited.)
Conclusions and Recommendations
There is currently insufficient evidence to recommend a particular school closure policy (e.g. proactive or reactive) over another. School closure may form a useful component of a mitigation strategy during pandemic influenza, but the timing and duration of closure needed to produce an effect is unclear. Policy should be responsive to the features of a new pandemic virus. For example, if transmission occurs mainly in schools (as during the 2009 pandemic), there is stronger justification for school closure than in the situation where much transmission occurs in adults.
In the early stages of a pandemic a precautionary approach (i.e. closing schools in the absence of strong evidence that this will reduce transmission) may be considered, particularly if the virus is believed to be highly pathogenic. School closure should be accompanied by advice that children should avoid meeting in large groups.The benefit of school closure in reducing clinically important outcomes needs to be balanced against secondary adverse effects which may not affect all sections of society equally. For example, such adverse effects may be particularly prominent where free school meals are an important source of nutrition or where parents are unable to take time off work or work from home.
https://www.theguardian.com/us-news/live/2020/mar/12/donald-tump-coronavirus-travel-ban-joe-biden-bernie-sanders-stock-markets-live-updates
You now picture Mike Pence clicking on a Tiny Duck post.
Corona-chan now has a Tinder account:
https://twitter.com/Vorish_/status/1235910658820132866/photo/3
#coronachan
Herd immunity? Do we have herd immunity to other corona viruses?
Yes, actually.
I the bunch of people surrounding you have had this year’s cold already, then you are not badly off *staying* in their midst.
https://m.youtube.com/watch?v=kTXEJizAneY
Peter Frampton’s Herd:
https://youtube.com/watch?v=y9StWPATQ5Q
Lie about the numbers to avoid panic, take obvious containment steps short of full shutdown, let it run.
Their work from home ability is pretty limited though with their giant cities, factories, mass transit, and tiny apartments without room for home offices.
Wuhan has a larger population than New York City. How many of us had heard of it 3 months ago?
Never heard of them. Wiki says lots of industrial zones.
Boris wants to be another Churchill.
The basis of Churchill’s greatness was that he identified the enemy very early on, and that he went all out against it. Boris is no Churchill.
Are we ready for tomorrow?
http://www.triskaidekaphobia.info
http://www.triskaidekaphobia.info/Paraskevidekatriaphobia.html
At least the full moon is behind us. As a Cæsar, I worry more about this Sunday anyway.
According to the iSteve narrative, immigrants in California live in overcrowded conditions, with multiple families plus unrelated individuals occupying single family homes. So they will be a huge reservoir of corona virus. Infected immigrant parents, who dominate the gig economy, will need to send their kids away during the day to hang out in public schoolyards, daycare centers, libraries, and shopping centers. Expect a lot of older people in southern California to die from infections caught from housekeepers, gardeners, and visiting health aides, not to mention feral kids teeming in all the public spaces. And expect the situation to be exacerbated by uninsured immigrants and the homeless bum-rushing the hospitals.
Italy Is Second Country With Coronavirus Outbreak Preceded By A Tuberculosis Epidemic
By Bill Sardi
https://www.lewrockwell.com/2020/03/no_author/italy-is-second-country-with-coronavirus-outbreak-preceded-by-a-tuberculosis-epidemic/
This is basically what all the ‘flatten the curve bro’ comments are asking for too, you just buy time to treat everyone until herd immunity finally fizzles the disease out (for some reason the term ‘herd immunity’ is scary I guess).
The problem is that the uk govt haven’t actually taken any measures whatsoever to flatten the curve (telling ppl to ‘wash your hands’ and self isolate if already sick won’t do anything). They just had their latest crisis meeting and the takeaway advice was ‘over 70s shouldn’t book a cruise’, no joke. It’s completely insane to not put restrictions on large gatherings as a bare minumum (this weekend sees the large Cheltenham horse-racing festival which has an attendance of around 67000-70000 per day over 4 days).
It seems they are trying to time the upswing of the curve before kicking in school closures (some ppl have suggested they’re trying to hold out until the easter holidays are two weeks away) and the like just before where their model tells them it will start peaking to try and flatten it.
To me it looks all too predictable that that time is now (or better – a week ago, or two weeks ago) and by the time these experts and their model tell them to act, it will be too late.
No doubt after the now inevitable catastrophe we will be told ‘lessons will be learned’ and academics will ‘improve the models’ by counting in common sense factors that some countries did earlier (close schools etc) and others (like us) didn’t until it was too late, but anyway, from me, damn them and their ‘models’ in advance.
Interestingly they said they estimate the number of infections at five to ten thousand, ten to twenty times what is official figures, due to the number undetected.
Been very impressed how Boris Johnson has handled this.
Get a nice view of the crowds at the main stands (Who are there for several hours each day) but there are lots of other crowds in other areas.
https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=hr7hdhUo0hU
When this gets approved, can someone comment on this bit?
Are they saying people have been immured to live or die? I could have sworn they had hospitals in China?
The virus doesn’t hide in cupboards. We know that it ‘dies’ after a (variable) period when left on a surface. Does this mean that recovered victims are still infectious? And if so, for how long?
(PS Pierre Trudeau is self-isolating)
We need to lock everyone on the left side of the Bell Curve in their homes until November 3rd.
2020 Trump: “Wash your hands”
2022 Biden: “You gotta wash your ass, Jack”
Headline says it all.
Italy Is Second Country With Coronavirus Outbreak Preceded By A Tuberculosis Epidemic
By Bill Sardi
https://www.lewrockwell.com/2020/03/no_author/italy-is-second-country-with-coronavirus-outbreak-preceded-by-a-tuberculosis-epidemic/
Yeah, isn’t that generally the whole point of a quarantine?
We need to lock everyone on the left side of the Bell Curve in their homes until November 3rd.
You must have missed the loathesome Obama demonstrating the proper way to cough into one’s crooked elbow. Probably the least harmful thing that useless POS ever did.
We don't know, that is why you get paid the big bucks to NOTICE. It just seems that you are hedging your bets and playing things to the middle. I mean, it's fine to not go out on a limb, but then again, you do venture out that far. And, while it's interesting to discuss what other nations are doing to combat the coronavirus, how about using those pattern recognition skills for our country?
For example, what do you think about Trump and Pence making statements about coronavirus that seemingly contradict or undermine the advice given by professions. Should they not turn the issue over primarily to the appropriate federal agencies and experts, rather than have Jared Kushner be front and center on this monumental issue? And why did the U.K. receive an exemption? Should we not focus on layered community mitigation measures? Where is the Trump and Pence on this component? And, why is Trump making China and Europe a scapegoat while trying to distance himself from the markets tanking during his watch? Did he not take credit for the Dow's explosion during his administration?
Let's start NOTICING these important topics rather screeching how another black author and her hair.
These are all pretty good questions.
In places like North Korea, doctors are no doubt scared to tell the dictator with truth without establishing ahead of time what he wants to hear. This may have accounted for no one wanting to own up to the fact that Otto Warmbier’s mysterious brain damage was most likely due to an attempt to hang himself soon after he was sent to prison, but had this been admitted, heads would have rolled. And rolled. And rolled. And then be displayed on pikes.
But in the US it is different. We are a scientific-type of people who have experts to advise our democratically elected leaders who are chosen by the people for their experience and wisdom.
So it could not happen here. We would just implement the best plan. Our plans would be devised ahead of time by experts appointed by our wise president for just such an outcome and would take into account all the knowledge in the world about containing epidemics that has been compiled since the Plagues of Egypt, and the Black Death.
All the president would have to do would be to check the boxes that had already been highlighted for him with a yellow marker, and after bringing together the leaders of all parties of Congress in a spirit of bipartisanship, and all the leaders of allied nations and other world leaders, with whom he would have carefully cultivated relationships and trust over the years through meetings at summits, his word would be soon be law and the world would be thankful for his leadership and support.
Thank God we are not somewhere like North Korea and don’t have some demented orange ape conducting policy by trial and error.
How did the Wuhan virus get to Italy? The answer is very hard to find on Google. DuckDuckGo sheds more light. The Woke brigade is trying to hide the origins, for some reason.
You know that WALLS DON'T WORK.
Meanwhile at the NYT:
Bias virus hits New York Times as double standards infect coverage of Covid-19 lockdown measures in China and Italy
Perhaps you could enlighten us.
https://twitter.com/jennygreenberg9/status/1237880133978972161
Yeah but what about clean Jews?
Italy Is Second Country With Coronavirus Outbreak Preceded By A Tuberculosis Epidemic
By Bill Sardi
https://www.lewrockwell.com/2020/03/no_author/italy-is-second-country-with-coronavirus-outbreak-preceded-by-a-tuberculosis-epidemic/
That tends to argue that the Vitamin D levels in both places is low. Good Vitamin D levels tends to keep latent tuberculosis from turning into active tuberculosis. Not surprised Covid-19 exploded in both places, then.
Yep, we Irish were always right about the Brits.
You allude to … immigrants?
You know that WALLS DON’T WORK.
Meanwhile at the NYT:
Bias virus hits New York Times as double standards infect coverage of Covid-19 lockdown measures in China and Italy
Italy Is Second Country With Coronavirus Outbreak Preceded By A Tuberculosis Epidemic
By Bill Sardi
https://www.lewrockwell.com/2020/03/no_author/italy-is-second-country-with-coronavirus-outbreak-preceded-by-a-tuberculosis-epidemic/
I’m not sure whether this article says that COVID-19 medical cases are actually Tuberculosis and somehow nobody notices (that seems to be the gist, and I call bullshit) or whether Tuberculosis outbreaks are a hot indicator that conditions are rife for something like COVID-19 to cause trouble (that’s not really what’s being said but it’s quite reasonable).
Obama had undisputed control over the CDC for eight years, while for the past three years Trump has faced heavy insubordination from almost all the federal agencies, which are still packed with Resistance members and Obama appointees. If the corona virus devastates our economy and population, think of that smiling jug-eared jackass while you cough into your sleeve.
Why is it so hard? They get millions of visitors from China. Same in London, Paris, everywhere. Then add lots of people -to-people exchanges due to school, work, business etc., Same reason why we have in WA and CA. If a country doesn’t want to become North Korea, it is impossible to stop the virus, especially before anyone notices it. If you pick random 100 items around you, you will see that 90 of them are made in China. That does not happen by exchanging electrons.
https://www.unz.com/isteve/uk-strategy-lie-back-and-think-of-england/#comment-3767174
The P**s Problem
Be like Dad
Not like Sis
Raise the seat
Before you p**s.
*********************************
The Coronavirus Problem
Be like South Korea
Not like Italy
South Korea did nicely
But Italy, shittily.
The imbecility of the British can’t be overstated.
https://leakreality.com/video/304/coronavirus-dead-doesn-t-scare-londoners-as-much-as-not-being-able-to-wipe-lol
I think we know who the real “Septics” are.
The problem is that the uk govt haven't actually taken any measures whatsoever to flatten the curve (telling ppl to 'wash your hands' and self isolate if already sick won't do anything). They just had their latest crisis meeting and the takeaway advice was 'over 70s shouldn't book a cruise', no joke. It's completely insane to not put restrictions on large gatherings as a bare minumum (this weekend sees the large Cheltenham horse-racing festival which has an attendance of around 67000-70000 per day over 4 days).
It seems they are trying to time the upswing of the curve before kicking in school closures (some ppl have suggested they're trying to hold out until the easter holidays are two weeks away) and the like just before where their model tells them it will start peaking to try and flatten it.
To me it looks all too predictable that that time is now (or better - a week ago, or two weeks ago) and by the time these experts and their model tell them to act, it will be too late.
No doubt after the now inevitable catastrophe we will be told 'lessons will be learned' and academics will 'improve the models' by counting in common sense factors that some countries did earlier (close schools etc) and others (like us) didn't until it was too late, but anyway, from me, damn them and their 'models' in advance.
The Chief Medical Officer and Chief Scientific Adviser said in the press conference that open air events there is very limited spread in stadiums and that closing sporting events will lead to people going to pubs where spread is greater. They also explained harsh quarantine actions have a limited effect and they will introduce these when they believe they will have the maximum effect.
Interestingly they said they estimate the number of infections at five to ten thousand, ten to twenty times what is official figures, due to the number undetected.
Been very impressed how Boris Johnson has handled this.
Kind of takes care of that pension funding shortfall problem, doesn’t it?
We need to lock everyone on the left side of the Bell Curve in their homes until November 3rd.
“I cannot believe I lived to see a President have to go on TV to tell a nation to wash its hands.”
Early in his administration, President Obola nagged Americans about maintaining proper tire pressure to increase fuel economy. Also, his HHS secretary Sebelius demonstrated proper sneezing technique during the pig flu ””crisis””.
The truth about this particular Coronavirus is that you can quarantine your country, destroy your economy, send your people into panic and suffer the resulting deaths from these man-made factors or you can just take it. If you just take it and ameliorate the worst effects you will obviously get deaths and suffering but possibly not more than the alternative. Furthermore, since this virus is now here to stay, you will constantly be at risk of the infection being reintroduced into your population.
China made a valiant effort, but unless they want everyone locked up forever, they will need to quarantine all travelers to China forever. And that really isn't going to happen.
Unless a vaccine quickly appears...but that seems unlikely, especially once you ignore PR efforts by random assorted second-rate research firms.
Herd immunity, for those who don't get it, is that enough people are immune that the virus has an R0 of less than 1.
Think as if the virus really were a bioweapon; like 9/11, the aim isn’t to kill a relatively small amount of people, but the ensuing counter-productive panic response (economic crash, lachrymose memorials, police state implemented, trillion $ wars for nothing, etc.)
Imagine if we had responded to 9/11 with “Huh, is that all you’ve got?” and moved on.
https://www.ovg.ox.ac.uk/news/herd-immunity-how-does-it-work
Q: Does herd immunity work for all diseases?
Note the answer to this question - ie that herd immunity only works for contagious diseases, but not from diseases you pick up from the environment. So, unless people immune to wuflu are sweating antibodies, it could be all over their skin, clothes etc. This also applies to other diseases, of course.
“Herd immunity only works if the immune individuals cannot be carriers whilst immune. But just because my body can fight off a disease doesn’t mean I can’t be carrying wuflu viruses on my hands etc and spread them to vulnerable people that way.”
There has been some research on this, though like everything else, there’s a very limited data set to work with:
“How did the Wuhan virus get to Italy?”
The hundreds of thousands of Chinese migrants working in Milan’s fashion industry and elsewhere throughout the epicenter of the outbreak make for a plausible transmission scenario.
If Rome or the Vatican were hardest hit, one might be more inclined to suspect Chinese tourists, in which case one would also expect a comparable number of cases in Paris and Vienna and other nearby tourist hotspots. As it is, the sweatshop workers churning out suits and dresses — some of them presumably visiting the home country over the Christmas holidays — are more likely candidates.
Recently bought a laptop from Amazon; apart from Amazon being in Seattle, the laptop itself was inside a box apparently shipped from China. Hmm?
https://twitter.com/jennygreenberg9/status/1237880133978972161
Chance of lie = 100%
Northern Italy, where there are the most cases, has tons of chinese immigrants and chinese companies producing textiles.
Please see this comment by HA below. There are hundreds of thousands of Chinese migrant workers clustered in northern Italy.
https://www.unz.com/isteve/uk-strategy-lie-back-and-think-of-england/#comment-3767174
But why is it low in heavily Chinese trafficked areas like ASEAN ( Malaysia, Indonesia, Thailand, Vietnam, Philippines ...)
What is really baffling is this:
Total deaths in Africa: 1
Total deaths in South America: 2
Deaths in India: 1
Why does this virus not seem to touch 6 billion humans while devastating 2 billion?
Since the virus can apparently live on surfaces for a few weeks, could all that clothing be infected?
Recently bought a laptop from Amazon; apart from Amazon being in Seattle, the laptop itself was inside a box apparently shipped from China. Hmm?
Maybe you can isolate the high risk individuals for say, a month or two while the rest of society is encouraged to get the virus. Nursing homes go into lockdown and half the carers self-isolate. The other half get the virus. Then the recovered staff go back to work and the remainder are infected.
Smokers, and the elderly go into lockdown while the rest of society gains herd immunity. Because they are low risk, not too many hospital beds are occupied.
What is wrong with this plan?
It is OK in theory, but suppose one or more of the carers who gets the virus dies or their family member dies? Will the other half of the staff then fulfill their part of the bargain? Who will get sued?
Herd immunity? Do we have herd immunity to other corona viruses?
The English have the right idea. What we’re doing with all this panic is destroying our economy. And in the end there will be a few thousand deaths just like with any other kinda bad virus.
No.
According to the CDC this flu season 40 million Americans will get flu and 20,000 will die.
https://www.cdc.gov/flu/about/burden/preliminary-in-season-estimates.htm
If 40 million Americans get Corona-chan between 400,000 and 800,000 will die - that's with a 1-2% death rate. It's around 7% in Italy at the moment, because ITU beds have run out.
Early in his administration, President Obola nagged Americans about maintaining proper tire pressure to increase fuel economy. Also, his HHS secretary Sebelius demonstrated proper sneezing technique during the pig flu ''''crisis''''.
Among health care personnel in the US hand-washing by caregivers is rated as by far the most common and most effective way of preventing the transmission of various kinds of infection from patient to patient. It is kind of like a religion.
However the degree of efficacy of handwashing in preventing or slowing a pandemic of an airborne infection is unknown.
Here is the executive summary of the UK review of the scientific literature:
The Chinese seem to be taking it seriously.
Maybe you can isolate the high risk individuals for say, a month or two while the rest of society is encouraged to get the virus. Nursing homes go into lockdown and half the carers self-isolate. The other half get the virus. Then the recovered staff go back to work and the remainder are infected.
Smokers, and the elderly go into lockdown while the rest of society gains herd immunity. Because they are low risk, not too many hospital beds are occupied.
What is wrong with this plan?
There are reports that the “recovered” can be reinfected and second time around has somewhat severe symptoms, such dropping dead in the street.
https://www.zerohedge.com/health/hubei-doctors-warn-even-deadlier-coronavirus-reinfection-causing-sudden-heart-attacks
There may be flaws in the UK strategy.
This seems like the correct solution to me. For the first time in a long time, the British government is doing the right thing.
What a xunt.
Lie about the numbers to avoid panic, take obvious containment steps short of full shutdown, let it run.
Their work from home ability is pretty limited though with their giant cities, factories, mass transit, and tiny apartments without room for home offices.
Wuhan has a larger population than New York City. How many of us had heard of it 3 months ago?
The Battle of Wuhan was a huge battle in the second Sino-Japanese War, basically precursor wwii it part of it depending on your point of view.
Lie about the numbers to avoid panic, take obvious containment steps short of full shutdown, let it run.
Their work from home ability is pretty limited though with their giant cities, factories, mass transit, and tiny apartments without room for home offices.
Wuhan has a larger population than New York City. How many of us had heard of it 3 months ago?
I ate some less than delicious pig brains there. It is a Chongqing delicacy but I guess it travels.
I just came back from working in an office in London. Out of maybe 20 people, only me and the Chinese girl took even the basic precautions of washing our hands when we came in from the outside. My job could be 100% done from home but the managers don’t care because ‘It’s just the flu’.
I wonder if there’s a smart version of that policy that goes like: “Tell the elderly and vulnerable to isolate themselves, let the rest of the population contract the disease, and then once the quarantine is lifted, the vulnerable will have, you know, actual herd immunity: there won’t be enough fuel for the virus to spread effectively.”
https://twitter.com/jennygreenberg9/status/1237880133978972161
“ one of your flight attendants just told me that the coronavirus is spreading because of dirty Jews.”
Appears to be literally true.
I’ve never actually met a hasid jew, but I’ve been around the Amish who dress similarly and eschew parts of modernity, and they often have BO.
Not that I am complaining. Hasids and Amish are whites with TFR of 5+, doing the job of making white babies the rest of us are mostly failing at.
https://www.ovg.ox.ac.uk/news/herd-immunity-how-does-it-work
Q: Does herd immunity work for all diseases?
Note the answer to this question - ie that herd immunity only works for contagious diseases, but not from diseases you pick up from the environment. So, unless people immune to wuflu are sweating antibodies, it could be all over their skin, clothes etc. This also applies to other diseases, of course.
Also to the point about the likely ineffectiveness of the UK theory of deliberately packing spaces with the public, to acquire herd immunity.
While evidence appears scarce, I have read credible reports that alas, any “immunity” acquired by those who survive COVID-19 only lasts roughly two months. After that evidently what can be seen via blood work, etc. to protect from another infection goes away.
So survivors might in some cases re-acquire the Chinese virus and suffer again. Results could be worse with a weakened immune system. After catching a cold, does anyone flock to other cold sufferers because they are now immune?
So “virus parties” like children sometimes do for chicken pox, isn’t going to work. At the very least it would be a tough sell. Of course those commentators I’ve read griping about how “crowded” the planet now is are welcome to try this themselves. Either way they win. So would we.
I cannot prove it doesn't and that it is also much less lethal, but the smart people seem to be acting the way I suspect.
I actually saw a very old woman in a wheelchair at the sidelines. The captains and ref did nudge elbows instead of shake hands, as did the managers, but the celebrating Athletico Madrid players ignored that completely and much physical contact ensued when they won. Not to mention the match went into extra time so an additional 40-50 minutes of everyone being packed in the grounds.
Good match though.
Not long after the match was over that one of the Juventus players, Daniele Rugani, was confirmed to have coronavirus. I don't think there is a better way to contract this virus than playing a match against somebody with it, breathing heavily and getting physically close. Though played with no crowd, foreign teams are still playing Italian teams, or were until this. Who knows if it might be spread far this way.
https://twitter.com/ln1982/status/1237865737705803778
“I don’t think there is a better way to contract this virus than playing a match against somebody with it, breathing heavily and getting physically close.”
Try a six hour flight where the air is circulated throughout the plane every 20 minutes. That will beat rubbing up against a sweaty dago every time,
In times of crisis, we must all remember to sit back and read Frank O’Hara’s great hilarious poem, “To The Film Industry In Crisis”
in which he memorably says….
“In times of crisis, we must remember again and again whom we love.”
Who do we love in this crisis? Do we love the poetry of Allen Ginsberg? Do we love the novels and essays of Jonathan Franzen? Do we really? Do we love the Atlantic, or the editorial staff of The New Yorker? Do we really?
Earlier this afternoon, I was contemplating two very important things: do I prefer the poetry of Su Tung-p’o or the poetry of John Donne; and do I prefer the Ramones record “Rocket to Russia” or the Ramones record “Ramones Leave Home”?
I do not know which to prefer,
The melody of inflections
Or the melody of innuendoes…
The blackbird whistling,
Or just after.
Me, I guess I'm just an old fuddy duddy in my taste for Keats; not just his amazing sonnets, but other passages as well.
A thing of beauty is a joy for ever:
Its loveliness increases; it will never
Pass into nothingness; but still will keep
A bower quiet for us, and a sleep
Full of sweet dreams, and health, and quiet breathing.
Therefore, on every morrow, are we wreathing
A flowery band to bind us to the earth,
Spite of despondence, of the inhuman dearth
Of noble natures, of the gloomy days,
Of all the unhealthy and o'er-darkened ways
Made for our searching: yes, in spite of all,
Some shape of beauty moves away the pall
From our dark spirits. Such the sun, the moon,
Trees old and young, sprouting a shady boon
For simple sheep; and such are daffodils
With the green world they live in; and clear rills
That for themselves a cooling covert make
'Gainst the hot season; the mid forest brake,
Rich with a sprinkling of fair musk-rose blooms:
And such too is the grandeur of the dooms
We have imagined for the mighty dead;
All lovely tales that we have heard or read:
An endless fountain of immortal drink,
Pouring unto us from the heaven's brink.
Nor do we merely feel these essences
For one short hour; no, even as the trees
That whisper round a temple become soon
Dear as the temple's self, so does the moon,
The passion poesy, glories infinite,
Haunt us till they become a cheering light
Unto our souls, and bound to us so fast,
That, whether there be shine, or gloom o'ercast,
They alway must be with us, or we die.
When I reflect on the trouble and suffering to which this young man was subject during his brief life, how striking it is that he could still pen these words of acceptance, and not merely sentiments of resignation. We stand to learn something concerning genuine character from spirits such as these.
Went from Los Angeles to San Francisco airports yesterday. Third time I’ve done it since Christmas. No symptoms yet. It’s a great time to travel. TSA security line was only about 10 minutes. Plane half empty. Both Airports emptier than I’ve ever seen in my life.
Most of the private schools in Bay Area closed for online classes. Commercial construction flourishing. Don’t know about retail, restaurants etc.
2 Chinese guys just delivered furniture. No masks. Chinese areas in Ca like San Gabriel in S. Ca, Millbrae, San Francisco few problems.
I don’t believe the media so I’m not worried.
https://twitter.com/jennygreenberg9/status/1237880133978972161
I’ve heard lots of weird anti-Semitic stuff, normally from “people of colour”. It isn’t unfeasible that she was told this. Someone who hasn’t tweeted for five years doesn’t seem like a person who needs attention.
Nonetheless, I’d put my money on her neurotically mishearing the attendant blaming “dirty shoes”. She is not a celebrity with a career to boost.
And if it did happen, and this person is not who she obviously is, she is still disgusting for wanting to take time out from a pandemic to "have a conversation about race."
Hate to break it you but the lads from Top Gear sounded pretty ruling class to my ears. And now I check, 2/3 attended public schools
https://www.unz.com/isteve/uk-strategy-lie-back-and-think-of-england/#comment-3767174
Seems possible; does that also explain the clusters in rest of Europe (France, Spain, Germany)?
But why is it low in heavily Chinese trafficked areas like ASEAN ( Malaysia, Indonesia, Thailand, Vietnam, Philippines …)
What is really baffling is this:
Total deaths in Africa: 1
Total deaths in South America: 2
Deaths in India: 1
Why does this virus not seem to touch 6 billion humans while devastating 2 billion?
Lie about the numbers to avoid panic, take obvious containment steps short of full shutdown, let it run.
Their work from home ability is pretty limited though with their giant cities, factories, mass transit, and tiny apartments without room for home offices.
Wuhan has a larger population than New York City. How many of us had heard of it 3 months ago?
There were articles about it when they opened the maximally dangerous bioweapon lab.
That is the silver lining I am seeing in this tragedy.
Will we see the emergence of coronavirus medical tourism? A bunch of sick people charter a plane to a remote airfield in a third world country where beds and ventilators are available in a prefab hospital building manned by Indian doctors and Filipino nurses
In fairness if a person realises they will bad enough for hospital they aren’t getting very far anywhere.
Coronavirus been berry berry good to the Dependency Ratio.
I wonder if boomers, who plundered their countries and stole from later generations, ever considered that “more immigrants” is not the only solution to the problem of an “aging population.”
logically, eliminating the boomer menace–especially as they become more evil and senile and incompetent by the minute–also solves this problem. and quite a bit more elegantly and sustainably one must say
Just realized we could bomb Iran now without disrupting the now massively oversupplied oil markets.
Not that we should, but if we do the timing is ideal now.
https://twitter.com/jennygreenberg9/status/1237880133978972161
The biggest by far and most dangerous outbreak in the US has happened in the Orthodox enclave in New Rochelle, currently under National Guard lockdown. It is also responsible for the AIPAC and CPAC transmissions. Alan Berger, the CPAC spreader apparently only attends the synagogue at New Rochelle (Whose rabbi has fallen ill with it) and doesn’t live in New Rochelle. The first case in Kansas was a woman from an Orthodox enclave who visited New Rochelle. Another case all the way in Far Rockaway seems also to stem from an Orthodox social network.
https://eu.lohud.com/story/news/2020/03/05/coronavirus-new-rochelle-case-stretches-to-aipac-washington/4962585002/
https://forward.com/news/440987/live-updates-coronavirus-covid-19-new-york-city-jewish-community/
https://www.nytimes.com/2020/03/09/nyregion/coronavirus-purim-new-york.html
https://www.dailymail.co.uk/news/article-8092395/Doctor-New-York-hospital-self-isolates-coronavirus-fears.html
In their typically dishonest fashion, Snopes says its a “mixture” of true and false that “Trump Cut the CDC’s Budget.” Their reasoning is that because no 2021 Budget has passed yet the “CDC funding in 2021 remains unclear.”
In other words, even though the CDC’s funding has not actually been cut, it’s supposedly sorta true that it has been cut.
https://www.snopes.com/fact-check/trump-cut-cdc-budget/
The problem is that the uk govt haven't actually taken any measures whatsoever to flatten the curve (telling ppl to 'wash your hands' and self isolate if already sick won't do anything). They just had their latest crisis meeting and the takeaway advice was 'over 70s shouldn't book a cruise', no joke. It's completely insane to not put restrictions on large gatherings as a bare minumum (this weekend sees the large Cheltenham horse-racing festival which has an attendance of around 67000-70000 per day over 4 days).
It seems they are trying to time the upswing of the curve before kicking in school closures (some ppl have suggested they're trying to hold out until the easter holidays are two weeks away) and the like just before where their model tells them it will start peaking to try and flatten it.
To me it looks all too predictable that that time is now (or better - a week ago, or two weeks ago) and by the time these experts and their model tell them to act, it will be too late.
No doubt after the now inevitable catastrophe we will be told 'lessons will be learned' and academics will 'improve the models' by counting in common sense factors that some countries did earlier (close schools etc) and others (like us) didn't until it was too late, but anyway, from me, damn them and their 'models' in advance.
Cheltenham is already going on, last day tomorrow. Crowds are a bit reduced but only a bit, nothing stops rich people having their fun.
Get a nice view of the crowds at the main stands (Who are there for several hours each day) but there are lots of other crowds in other areas.
“How did the Wuhan virus get to Italy? ”
Perhaps you could enlighten us.
I think that Robert Peston is speculating here and I doubt that he’s right. Relying on herd immunity from a newly-created disease doesn’t seem smart to me so I did some checking.
Here is a response to his article in WiredUK in which the author shows the consequences of relying on herd immunity in this case. I sure don’t have the background to know if his points are right either but they sure seem reasonable:
We will probably have a vaccine for this in the next 18-24 months. I think the idea of going for herd immunity is very extreme. The risks and sacrifices made by the sick people simply wouldn’t come anywhere to equaling the gain. I hope it isn’t true. WiredUK asked the UK government for a statement about using herd immunity but they didn’t get a response before publication of the article.
https://www.wired.co.uk/article/herd-immunity-uk-coronavirus-robert-peston
“How did the Wuhan virus get to Italy?”
In Iran, one official guess was that their patient zero was a Qom businessman who traveled to China in February. While there are lots of reasons to be skeptical about anything Iran says about this matter (or numerous others), some Iranian businessman, whether the one who was actually designated, or someone else like him, might indeed have been responsible.
In the case of Italy, there are presumably a sizable number of Milanese and Florentine businessmen shuttling back and forth to China to liase with the sweatshops where nominally Italian fashion (and all the Guchi and Prauda and Aramani and Versacci and other such cheap knockoffs) actually gets manufactured. They might have also been the Italian patient zeros.
If this theory holds up, then the rapid spread of the virus in Italy is not necessarily a result of the large number of Chinese sweatshop workers crammed sewing machine to sewing machine, but maybe some combination of Italian social distance, larger number of multi-generational family situations in Italian homes, underlying prevalence of TB, and (that old Unz.com standby) heightened susceptibility of Italians to the disease. Or some combination of multiple aggravating factors. Or else, just randomness. I mean, the Bavarians aren't being overwhelmed by the virus, and the Iranians seem to have it pretty bad too, even with just a few Chinese migrants, though Persians are relatively carefree about social distance, too, at least in comparison with Germans.
Realistically, can we expect any baseball this year?
Won’t we have to test every single person first?
Still at it then, eh Mara?
We need to lock everyone on the left side of the Bell Curve in their homes until November 3rd.
It’s never bad to go back to basics.
I read recently that there are lots of illegal Chinese garment workers in Italy. A quick Internet search shows that is true. So the greedy businessmen don’t have to travel to China, they can go to the factories right in their own country.
It turns out that like here in America, those who don’t want to find illegal immigrants in Italy don’t find them:
“Prato mayor Roberto Cenni, himself a textiles entrepreneur, arrived in 2009 promising to clean up the area. Cenni says he has trebled inspections since then, but still only a small fraction of the factories are monitored regularly.
“We don’t have the ability to fight this system of illegality,” he said, noting that Prato has only two labor inspectors.
In some cases, local officials share the blame. Prato chief prosecutor Piero Tony ordered the arrest of 11 people this month, including a city council employee who is suspected of issuing false residency permits – for between 600 and 1,500 ($820-$2,100) euros a piece – to more than 300 Chinese immigrants since May.”
https://www.reuters.com/article/us-italy-sweatshop-insight-idUSBRE9BS04D20131229
>businessman turned politician
>part of relevant industry
>said he would "clean up"
My stereotype detectors can only handle so much predictable lying in one anecdote ...
The Atlantic:
And I just go, “why not worry about your backyard, globalist friend of The Atlantic?”
That's the approach that Canada, Lebanon, Afghanistan and Australia tried. Which is how they got their coronavirus exposure. From Iran.
Even CHINA got a number of cases that way, as in Wuhan -> Iran -> other-area-of-China.
That being the case, the "mind your own business and don't concern yourself with what Iran or The Atlantic are saying" seems a tad idiotic. I can be skeptical of both and recognize that sometimes one or the other is the best source of information I can find on some topic or another, so that it winds up being all I have to work with.
“a few thousand deaths just like with any other kinda bad virus”
No.
According to the CDC this flu season 40 million Americans will get flu and 20,000 will die.
https://www.cdc.gov/flu/about/burden/preliminary-in-season-estimates.htm
If 40 million Americans get Corona-chan between 400,000 and 800,000 will die – that’s with a 1-2% death rate. It’s around 7% in Italy at the moment, because ITU beds have run out.
Is that a lot? 2,813,503 died in 2017 from all causes.
https://www.cdc.gov/nchs/fastats/deaths.htm
in case anybody wants to keep posting that Trump bungled this, and that they’ll be voting for a Democrat in November, here is the Democrat strategy for Covid-19:
House Democrats vote to end Trump travel bans on China and Iran
Joe Biden was Vice President for 8 years, during which the Obama administration allowed 12,000 Americans to die fro H1N1, they allowed Ebola patients to come into the US, and they ended the law that banned immigrants with HIV, letting in hundreds (thousands?) of new HIV cases.
we actually WOULD be in big trouble if Democrats were in control right now. as it is, the Republican response could have been draconian and maximally effective, but it’s still not terrible at all compared to the alternative. it’s not a surprise whatsoever that the leftist media reaction to Trump’s speech was instantly negative. they want those borders OPEN.
Trump definitely should fire CDC director Redfield, who said that securing the border made no sense, and for general, the buck stops here, conventional reasons.
An article I am working on getting published:
Date: March 12, 2020
Humidity helps in the fight against COVID-19
What can the public do to defend against the COVID-19 coronavirus? One simple answer is to ramp up humidification at home and in the workplace, if humidity levels are low. Hospitals treating cases of viral respiratory infection may be advised to do the same.
Why has the novel coronavirus COVID-19 had only a minimal impact in tropical countries while temperate zone countries such as China, Korea, Italy, Iran and the United States have suffered outbreaks? Humidity, and especially indoor humidity, seems to hold the key.
In 2019, a research team at Yale University Medical School published a groundbreaking study which showed how low ambient humidity hurts the ability of the immune system to fight respiratory viral infection in animal hosts. As Yale immunologist Akiko Iwasaki explains, winter months require indoor heating, which leads to low indoor humidity, which in turn leads to reduced mucociliary clearance and innate antiviral immunity, resulting in more respiratory virus in the lungs and increased mortality. Dr. Nancy Gough of Johns Hopkins University explains the Yale study thus: “When the temperature drops, the heat comes on. This reduces the amount of humidity in the air. It turns out this isn’t just uncomfortable; it also impairs the innate immune system in the respiratory tract.”
What do all the places with severe community COVID-19 outbreaks have in common? As a group of U.S. and Iranian researchers conclude in a new study posted for review on March 9, 2020, “To date, Coronavirus Disease 2019 (COVID-19), caused by SARS-CoV-2, has established significant community spread in cities and regions only along a narrow east west distribution roughly along the 30-50 N” corridor at consistently similar weather patterns”. In each of the locations of significant community spread identified by the researchers, indoor humidity ranged from about 20% to 30% in the weeks prior to outbreak, which is fairly dry. “Because of geographical proximity and significant travel connections, epidemiological modeling of the epicenter predicted that regions in Southeast Asia, and specifically Bangkok would follow Wuhan, and China in the epidemic.” Instead, the researchers noted, “COVID-19 failed to spread significantly to countries immediately south of China.”
Dr. Gough further explains the importance of humidity further, “The epithelial cells have small cellular protrusions called cilia that move the mucus to promote clearance of pathogens and particles that enter the respiratory system. Analysis of the mucus in the trachea showed that infection in low humidity resulted in the inability to of the cilia on the epithelial cells to move it. The low humidity made the mucus too thick.”
What can you do when low humidity is unavoidable? Explains Dr. Iwasaki, “A mask will certainly keep your nose and mouth warmer and more humidified. I always wear a mask on international flights for this reason, where 10% relative humidity and closed environment makes for a perfect transmission incubator.”
What should be the target humidity? The Yale team found that 50% ambient humidity at room temperature led to dramatically increased survival in their animal subjects. What if a humidifier is not available? A large pot of water carefully kept at a low boil can humidify dry winter air to healthy levels.
This new research suggests that warmer, more humid weather may soon bring relief to countries now affected by COVID-19. Until then, indoor humidification and the use of facemasks may save many lives and ultimately help the world turn the corner in the fight against this epidemic.
Key Citations:
1. Kudo et al. (2019) Low ambient humidity impairs barrier function and innate resistance against influenza infection. Proceedings of the National Academy of Sciences, 2019
2. Gough, March 1, 2020. Fighting the Flu with Humidity: Researchers discover immune system benefits of humidity.
https://medium.com/@ngough_bioserendipity/fight Fighting the Flu with Humidity
Researchers discover immune system benefits of humiditying-the-flu-with-humidity-28d4ccb42bd7
3. Sajadi et al. (2020) Temperature and Latitude Analysis to Predict Potential Spread and Seasonality for COVID-19
https://papers.ssrn.com/sol3/papers.cfm?abstract_id=3550308
Further reading:
1. Makinen et al. (2009) Cold temperature and low humidity are associated with increased occurrence of respiratory tract infections. Respiratory Medicine, Volume 103, Issue 3, March 2009, Pages 456-462
2. Salah et al. (1988) Nasal mucociliary transport in healthy subjects is slower when breathing dry air. Eur Respir J. 1988 Oct;1(9):852-5.
3. Shaman et al. (2009) Absolute humidity modulates influenza survival, transmission, and seasonality. PNAS March 3, 2009 106 (9) 3243-3248
4. Lowen et al. (2007) Influenza virus transmission is dependent on relative humidity and temperature. PLoS Pathog 3(10): 1470–1476.
5. Yang et al. (2011) Dynamics of airborne influenza A viruses indoors and dependence on humidity. PloS One 6(6): e21481.
You can also just turn the thermostat down and bundle up. It's the heating that's causing the low humidity, after all. That approach will keep your skin from itching and your eyes from drying out, too. You can also get a humidifier, but in my limited experience, they are a mess to work with and are themselves breeding grounds of mold and other nasty stuff if they're not properly maintained.
Perhaps the bigger problem is temperature. Hospitals (especially the OR) tend to be kept cool.
http://bry-air.com/casestudies/environmental-temperature-control-systems-for-hospitals-and-infirmaries/
Have you found any references doing controlled experiments on humidity in patient care environments during flu season?
Early speculation on the impact of weather, interesting I believe the outbreaks in Spain are in relatively cold Madrid and Basque country.
Plenty of people are simply filthy. Only now that they perceive their own hands as a threat to the health of themselves instead of everybody else do we have a reasonable expectation that they'll wash their own hands on a regular basis.
I saw it in a Hard Rock Cafe once.
He was a waiter there.
He was black.
I really wish I had said something to the management.
Here is a link to an excellent article in The Guardian explaining the UK Coronavirus plan.
UK government’s coronavirus advice – and why it gave it
https://www.theguardian.com/world/2020/mar/12/uk-governments-coronavirus-advice-and-why-it-gave-it
I have to say, having lived for more than 20 years in both the UK and the US, plus another 15 years in 2 other countries, that this does rather illuminate the cultural differences between the 2 countries (UK and US when it comes to dealing with bothersome problems, for example airline terrorism,but also many other problems.
The US tends to favor throwing a huge amount of resources at issues and forcing everyone to go through the same experience, then perhaps modifying it a bit later on. TSA at airports is a good example. The thinking is that everyone is a suspect, even elderly invalid ladies in wheelchairs, so they need to treat everyone as a suspect to be safe.
The UK approach tends to be much more laissez faire, but also targeted. For example the recent terrorist killer in London was regrettably not stopped, but on the other hand he was being tailed by cops with guns at the time of the atrocity, even though British cops do not routinely carry guns.
A lot of the difference is probably to do with the variations in the legal and political system. In the US when anything bad happens, some person or organization is found who can be sued. Judges, however are exempt, so if they release a killer or madman, no one says anything. Sheriffs and mayors are elected and if bad things happen on their watch, someone will run for their job and try to take it away from them, so they are very risk averse.
Top level politicians in the US are much more divorced from the lives of ordinary people than politicians in the UK, and often only see the world through the tinted windows of their helicopters, have bodyguards, and do not shop for their own groceries, so they tend to favor solutions that will protect elites and do not go out onto the streets asking people how they will be affected.
Perhaps I have not expressed this very well, but anyone who has lived in both countries will recognize the cultural difference I am talking about.
It should be illegal to create new viruses in labs in all countries. Violating nations should be North Korea-level ostracized economically, etc. Too dangerous not to.
Hoping that’s not true but that is what is coming out out Hubei/Wuhan now.
Assume the worst until proven otherwise
Has it ever occurred to anyone that Once You Have This Disease, You are Forever Weakened For LIFE and therefore more susceptible to other diseases?
No one is thinking this way.
I’ve had some problems since having H1N1 back in 2010 or 009. Things hit me harder then they did before.
I think this is a good question to ask, and may cause The Young to reevaluate whether they want Herd Immunity or To Stomp This Thing Out
The Dems and the Media act like on January 19, 2017, Obama himself was on the verge of curing coronaviruses as we know them but then the Deplorables and Trump threw out the secret cure moments after he was inaugurated the next day. Dr. Fauci saying what he said about the testing “Failing” doesn’t help. The NIH/CDC would not have had the testing ready in 2003, 2009 or 2020. Even the Pandemic Team Bolton had fired was a group of NSC political science majors, not Virologists.
We don't know, that is why you get paid the big bucks to NOTICE. It just seems that you are hedging your bets and playing things to the middle. I mean, it's fine to not go out on a limb, but then again, you do venture out that far. And, while it's interesting to discuss what other nations are doing to combat the coronavirus, how about using those pattern recognition skills for our country?
For example, what do you think about Trump and Pence making statements about coronavirus that seemingly contradict or undermine the advice given by professions. Should they not turn the issue over primarily to the appropriate federal agencies and experts, rather than have Jared Kushner be front and center on this monumental issue? And why did the U.K. receive an exemption? Should we not focus on layered community mitigation measures? Where is the Trump and Pence on this component? And, why is Trump making China and Europe a scapegoat while trying to distance himself from the markets tanking during his watch? Did he not take credit for the Dow's explosion during his administration?
Let's start NOTICING these important topics rather screeching how another black author and her hair.
Are you talking about U.S. President Trump or some imaginary Emperor Trump?
Unless we have martial law, the President’s powers are limited.
Until that happens, we’re at the mercy of our state governments and local boards.
In the super-zip where I live, the local school board has really dragged their feet in closing schools in spite of confirmed COVID-19 infections within one degree of separation from public school students.
Date: March 12, 2020
Humidity helps in the fight against COVID-19
What can the public do to defend against the COVID-19 coronavirus? One simple answer is to ramp up humidification at home and in the workplace, if humidity levels are low. Hospitals treating cases of viral respiratory infection may be advised to do the same.
Why has the novel coronavirus COVID-19 had only a minimal impact in tropical countries while temperate zone countries such as China, Korea, Italy, Iran and the United States have suffered outbreaks? Humidity, and especially indoor humidity, seems to hold the key.
In 2019, a research team at Yale University Medical School published a groundbreaking study which showed how low ambient humidity hurts the ability of the immune system to fight respiratory viral infection in animal hosts. As Yale immunologist Akiko Iwasaki explains, winter months require indoor heating, which leads to low indoor humidity, which in turn leads to reduced mucociliary clearance and innate antiviral immunity, resulting in more respiratory virus in the lungs and increased mortality. Dr. Nancy Gough of Johns Hopkins University explains the Yale study thus: “When the temperature drops, the heat comes on. This reduces the amount of humidity in the air. It turns out this isn’t just uncomfortable; it also impairs the innate immune system in the respiratory tract.”
What do all the places with severe community COVID-19 outbreaks have in common? As a group of U.S. and Iranian researchers conclude in a new study posted for review on March 9, 2020, “To date, Coronavirus Disease 2019 (COVID-19), caused by SARS-CoV-2, has established significant community spread in cities and regions only along a narrow east west distribution roughly along the 30-50 N” corridor at consistently similar weather patterns”. In each of the locations of significant community spread identified by the researchers, indoor humidity ranged from about 20% to 30% in the weeks prior to outbreak, which is fairly dry. “Because of geographical proximity and significant travel connections, epidemiological modeling of the epicenter predicted that regions in Southeast Asia, and specifically Bangkok would follow Wuhan, and China in the epidemic.” Instead, the researchers noted, “COVID-19 failed to spread significantly to countries immediately south of China.”
Dr. Gough further explains the importance of humidity further, “The epithelial cells have small cellular protrusions called cilia that move the mucus to promote clearance of pathogens and particles that enter the respiratory system. Analysis of the mucus in the trachea showed that infection in low humidity resulted in the inability to of the cilia on the epithelial cells to move it. The low humidity made the mucus too thick.”
What can you do when low humidity is unavoidable? Explains Dr. Iwasaki, “A mask will certainly keep your nose and mouth warmer and more humidified. I always wear a mask on international flights for this reason, where 10% relative humidity and closed environment makes for a perfect transmission incubator.”
What should be the target humidity? The Yale team found that 50% ambient humidity at room temperature led to dramatically increased survival in their animal subjects. What if a humidifier is not available? A large pot of water carefully kept at a low boil can humidify dry winter air to healthy levels.
This new research suggests that warmer, more humid weather may soon bring relief to countries now affected by COVID-19. Until then, indoor humidification and the use of facemasks may save many lives and ultimately help the world turn the corner in the fight against this epidemic.
Key Citations:
1. Kudo et al. (2019) Low ambient humidity impairs barrier function and innate resistance against influenza infection. Proceedings of the National Academy of Sciences, 2019
2. Gough, March 1, 2020. Fighting the Flu with Humidity: Researchers discover immune system benefits of humidity.
https://medium.com/@ngough_bioserendipity/fight Fighting the Flu with Humidity
Researchers discover immune system benefits of humiditying-the-flu-with-humidity-28d4ccb42bd7
3. Sajadi et al. (2020) Temperature and Latitude Analysis to Predict Potential Spread and Seasonality for COVID-19
https://papers.ssrn.com/sol3/papers.cfm?abstract_id=3550308
Further reading:
1. Makinen et al. (2009) Cold temperature and low humidity are associated with increased occurrence of respiratory tract infections. Respiratory Medicine, Volume 103, Issue 3, March 2009, Pages 456-462
2. Salah et al. (1988) Nasal mucociliary transport in healthy subjects is slower when breathing dry air. Eur Respir J. 1988 Oct;1(9):852-5.
3. Shaman et al. (2009) Absolute humidity modulates influenza survival, transmission, and seasonality. PNAS March 3, 2009 106 (9) 3243-3248
4. Lowen et al. (2007) Influenza virus transmission is dependent on relative humidity and temperature. PLoS Pathog 3(10): 1470–1476.
5. Yang et al. (2011) Dynamics of airborne influenza A viruses indoors and dependence on humidity. PloS One 6(6): e21481.
Tom Hanks and wife just got it on the Gold Coast of Australia in their Summer.
It's also been raining steadily. Once you get 2 streets from the beaches the Gold Coast is reclaimed swampland. Extremely humid and unhealthy at the moment.
“And I just go, “why not worry about your backyard, globalist friend of The Atlantic?”
That’s the approach that Canada, Lebanon, Afghanistan and Australia tried. Which is how they got their coronavirus exposure. From Iran.
Even CHINA got a number of cases that way, as in Wuhan -> Iran -> other-area-of-China.
That being the case, the “mind your own business and don’t concern yourself with what Iran or The Atlantic are saying” seems a tad idiotic. I can be skeptical of both and recognize that sometimes one or the other is the best source of information I can find on some topic or another, so that it winds up being all I have to work with.
https://www.zerohedge.com/health/hubei-doctors-warn-even-deadlier-coronavirus-reinfection-causing-sudden-heart-attacks
There may be flaws in the UK strategy.
No.
According to the CDC this flu season 40 million Americans will get flu and 20,000 will die.
https://www.cdc.gov/flu/about/burden/preliminary-in-season-estimates.htm
If 40 million Americans get Corona-chan between 400,000 and 800,000 will die - that's with a 1-2% death rate. It's around 7% in Italy at the moment, because ITU beds have run out.
“between 400,000 and 800,000”
Is that a lot? 2,813,503 died in 2017 from all causes.
https://www.cdc.gov/nchs/fastats/deaths.htm
They’ll find another. They always do.
“So the greedy businessmen don’t have to travel to China, they can go to the factories right in their own country.”
True, but I suspect the sweatshops in China pay their workers even less than the sweatshops in Milan. Moreover, bribing Chinese factory owners to create cheap counterfeit versions of Italian goods might also be cheaper than bribing executives of Prada and Armani. Finally, I suspect that some of the “Made in Italy” stickers (I’m talking about the genuine ones) are sewn onto goods that are actually assembled in Italy, and that the various components and buckles and buttons and so forth are still manufactured in China.
All of which means there will be a lot of back-and-forth traffic between local and foreign sweatshops, and all those sewing machines and workers crammed togethe rseem like ideal breeding grounds for infectious disease whether they’re in Italy or China. We don’t know yet if it was one of the businessmen or one of the local sweatshop workers who brought over the virus after visiting Wuhan, but Iran is in as big a mess or worse than Italy, and it doesn’t have all the numerous local Chinese sweatshops that Italy has, so those aren’t always necessary.
No one is thinking this way.
I've had some problems since having H1N1 back in 2010 or 009. Things hit me harder then they did before.
I think this is a good question to ask, and may cause The Young to reevaluate whether they want Herd Immunity or To Stomp This Thing Out
Any reference to back up this claim? General theory is one gets natural immunity if one gets infected. Not true for all diseases and definitely not true between diseases. Isn’t it the basis of the popular saying What doesn’t kill you, makes you stronger?
Lie back and think about Kiiin-tucky:
In America we do not criticize them in public, but every single time it is convenient they happen upon quotations from Streicher (which are almost never recorded, you just have to take their word for it); similarly blacks claim to hear the n-word as often as they want to justify violence. It is very difficult to believe that this happened. The accused wasn’t a random black woman in a subway, it was a stewardess interacting with a customer. The five year old account is not exonerating, it is suspicious. This is an established practice by rumor agents to not seem like a rumor agent.
And if it did happen, and this person is not who she obviously is, she is still disgusting for wanting to take time out from a pandemic to “have a conversation about race.”
He was a waiter there.
He was black.
I really wish I had said something to the management.
I was recently in a shut down thread advising against any restaurant with any black staff; before it was shut down there were descriptions of spitting or flooring of food out of hatred of whites, or just because they were angry, and the proviso that pretty much everyone else recognizes that food handling is a line they should not cross, but not these people.
>Italian
>businessman turned politician
>part of relevant industry
>said he would “clean up”
My stereotype detectors can only handle so much predictable lying in one anecdote …
Date: March 12, 2020
Humidity helps in the fight against COVID-19
What can the public do to defend against the COVID-19 coronavirus? One simple answer is to ramp up humidification at home and in the workplace, if humidity levels are low. Hospitals treating cases of viral respiratory infection may be advised to do the same.
Why has the novel coronavirus COVID-19 had only a minimal impact in tropical countries while temperate zone countries such as China, Korea, Italy, Iran and the United States have suffered outbreaks? Humidity, and especially indoor humidity, seems to hold the key.
In 2019, a research team at Yale University Medical School published a groundbreaking study which showed how low ambient humidity hurts the ability of the immune system to fight respiratory viral infection in animal hosts. As Yale immunologist Akiko Iwasaki explains, winter months require indoor heating, which leads to low indoor humidity, which in turn leads to reduced mucociliary clearance and innate antiviral immunity, resulting in more respiratory virus in the lungs and increased mortality. Dr. Nancy Gough of Johns Hopkins University explains the Yale study thus: “When the temperature drops, the heat comes on. This reduces the amount of humidity in the air. It turns out this isn’t just uncomfortable; it also impairs the innate immune system in the respiratory tract.”
What do all the places with severe community COVID-19 outbreaks have in common? As a group of U.S. and Iranian researchers conclude in a new study posted for review on March 9, 2020, “To date, Coronavirus Disease 2019 (COVID-19), caused by SARS-CoV-2, has established significant community spread in cities and regions only along a narrow east west distribution roughly along the 30-50 N” corridor at consistently similar weather patterns”. In each of the locations of significant community spread identified by the researchers, indoor humidity ranged from about 20% to 30% in the weeks prior to outbreak, which is fairly dry. “Because of geographical proximity and significant travel connections, epidemiological modeling of the epicenter predicted that regions in Southeast Asia, and specifically Bangkok would follow Wuhan, and China in the epidemic.” Instead, the researchers noted, “COVID-19 failed to spread significantly to countries immediately south of China.”
Dr. Gough further explains the importance of humidity further, “The epithelial cells have small cellular protrusions called cilia that move the mucus to promote clearance of pathogens and particles that enter the respiratory system. Analysis of the mucus in the trachea showed that infection in low humidity resulted in the inability to of the cilia on the epithelial cells to move it. The low humidity made the mucus too thick.”
What can you do when low humidity is unavoidable? Explains Dr. Iwasaki, “A mask will certainly keep your nose and mouth warmer and more humidified. I always wear a mask on international flights for this reason, where 10% relative humidity and closed environment makes for a perfect transmission incubator.”
What should be the target humidity? The Yale team found that 50% ambient humidity at room temperature led to dramatically increased survival in their animal subjects. What if a humidifier is not available? A large pot of water carefully kept at a low boil can humidify dry winter air to healthy levels.
This new research suggests that warmer, more humid weather may soon bring relief to countries now affected by COVID-19. Until then, indoor humidification and the use of facemasks may save many lives and ultimately help the world turn the corner in the fight against this epidemic.
Key Citations:
1. Kudo et al. (2019) Low ambient humidity impairs barrier function and innate resistance against influenza infection. Proceedings of the National Academy of Sciences, 2019
2. Gough, March 1, 2020. Fighting the Flu with Humidity: Researchers discover immune system benefits of humidity.
https://medium.com/@ngough_bioserendipity/fight Fighting the Flu with Humidity
Researchers discover immune system benefits of humiditying-the-flu-with-humidity-28d4ccb42bd7
3. Sajadi et al. (2020) Temperature and Latitude Analysis to Predict Potential Spread and Seasonality for COVID-19
https://papers.ssrn.com/sol3/papers.cfm?abstract_id=3550308
Further reading:
1. Makinen et al. (2009) Cold temperature and low humidity are associated with increased occurrence of respiratory tract infections. Respiratory Medicine, Volume 103, Issue 3, March 2009, Pages 456-462
2. Salah et al. (1988) Nasal mucociliary transport in healthy subjects is slower when breathing dry air. Eur Respir J. 1988 Oct;1(9):852-5.
3. Shaman et al. (2009) Absolute humidity modulates influenza survival, transmission, and seasonality. PNAS March 3, 2009 106 (9) 3243-3248
4. Lowen et al. (2007) Influenza virus transmission is dependent on relative humidity and temperature. PLoS Pathog 3(10): 1470–1476.
5. Yang et al. (2011) Dynamics of airborne influenza A viruses indoors and dependence on humidity. PloS One 6(6): e21481.
“The Yale team found that 50% ambient humidity at room temperature led to dramatically increased survival in their animal subjects. What if a humidifier is not available? A large pot of water carefully kept at a low boil can humidify dry winter air to healthy levels.”
You can also just turn the thermostat down and bundle up. It’s the heating that’s causing the low humidity, after all. That approach will keep your skin from itching and your eyes from drying out, too. You can also get a humidifier, but in my limited experience, they are a mess to work with and are themselves breeding grounds of mold and other nasty stuff if they’re not properly maintained.
https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Humidity#TypesThat is a worthwhile concern.
Imagine if we had responded to 9/11 with "Huh, is that all you've got?" and moved on.
Thank you. I am the only one I know who proposed that, and I took a ton of flak for doing so. We could have acted big but we acted very small, and most of our people thought acting tough was acting big.
Thanks to you, and Hypnotoad too.
In that case much of the USA will be safe, for the very same reason why we were excoriated by know-it-all libs.
It might also explain the New Rochelle outbreak .
If this easily reinfects people just 2 months later and has anything like the 3% mortality rate that some people argue it has, then it completely changes the world. Indeed, I’d take 90% off of the the value of the stock market.
I cannot prove it doesn’t and that it is also much less lethal, but the smart people seem to be acting the way I suspect.
It’s still 1066 in their heads. One interesting element of England is that it’s aristocrats never really faced their day of reckoning unlike elsewhere in the West. Manners were never put on them. As well I genuinely think the substantially deeper antipathy towards the working class in England than other countries is due to them inheriting a value system of a conquering force who replaced the entire ruling class in England. The English working class are still seen through that perspective, a conquered indigenous people.
Here is a response to his article in WiredUK in which the author shows the consequences of relying on herd immunity in this case. I sure don't have the background to know if his points are right either but they sure seem reasonable:We will probably have a vaccine for this in the next 18-24 months. I think the idea of going for herd immunity is very extreme. The risks and sacrifices made by the sick people simply wouldn't come anywhere to equaling the gain. I hope it isn't true. WiredUK asked the UK government for a statement about using herd immunity but they didn't get a response before publication of the article.
https://www.wired.co.uk/article/herd-immunity-uk-coronavirus-robert-peston
Perhaps there were 4 million cases but only 44,000 confirmed. Or even 44 million?
While we are doing some house cleaning, we also need to get rid of Alex Azar, the
Sometimes, these captains of industry are as bad as communists paint them or worse.
On Tuesday I had a perplexing internet outage, so I called ATT U-verse tech support.
They couldn’t solve the problem, so scheduled a tech visit for Thursday. I was upset that it would take so long to get a tech dispatched and asked why.
‘Due to coronavirus’.
wut
Asked for further explanation, and she had none.
Agree that it’s very strange that Britain is exempt from the travel embargo. Why?
I suspect Trump knows some ghastly things he’s not telling us. Watch his address to the nation from Wednesday night; at 39 seconds he starts to cry.
in which he memorably says....
"In times of crisis, we must remember again and again whom we love."
Who do we love in this crisis? Do we love the poetry of Allen Ginsberg? Do we love the novels and essays of Jonathan Franzen? Do we really? Do we love the Atlantic, or the editorial staff of The New Yorker? Do we really?
Earlier this afternoon, I was contemplating two very important things: do I prefer the poetry of Su Tung-p'o or the poetry of John Donne; and do I prefer the Ramones record "Rocket to Russia" or the Ramones record "Ramones Leave Home"?
I do not know which to prefer,
The melody of inflections
Or the melody of innuendoes...
The blackbird whistling,
Or just after.
Then there’s always Wallace Stevens.
Me, I guess I’m just an old fuddy duddy in my taste for Keats; not just his amazing sonnets, but other passages as well.
A thing of beauty is a joy for ever:
Its loveliness increases; it will never
Pass into nothingness; but still will keep
A bower quiet for us, and a sleep
Full of sweet dreams, and health, and quiet breathing.
Therefore, on every morrow, are we wreathing
A flowery band to bind us to the earth,
Spite of despondence, of the inhuman dearth
Of noble natures, of the gloomy days,
Of all the unhealthy and o’er-darkened ways
Made for our searching: yes, in spite of all,
Some shape of beauty moves away the pall
From our dark spirits. Such the sun, the moon,
Trees old and young, sprouting a shady boon
For simple sheep; and such are daffodils
With the green world they live in; and clear rills
That for themselves a cooling covert make
‘Gainst the hot season; the mid forest brake,
Rich with a sprinkling of fair musk-rose blooms:
And such too is the grandeur of the dooms
We have imagined for the mighty dead;
All lovely tales that we have heard or read:
An endless fountain of immortal drink,
Pouring unto us from the heaven’s brink.
Nor do we merely feel these essences
For one short hour; no, even as the trees
That whisper round a temple become soon
Dear as the temple’s self, so does the moon,
The passion poesy, glories infinite,
Haunt us till they become a cheering light
Unto our souls, and bound to us so fast,
That, whether there be shine, or gloom o’ercast,
They alway must be with us, or we die.
When I reflect on the trouble and suffering to which this young man was subject during his brief life, how striking it is that he could still pen these words of acceptance, and not merely sentiments of resignation. We stand to learn something concerning genuine character from spirits such as these.
No one is thinking this way.
I've had some problems since having H1N1 back in 2010 or 009. Things hit me harder then they did before.
I think this is a good question to ask, and may cause The Young to reevaluate whether they want Herd Immunity or To Stomp This Thing Out
Sounds like you’re just getting older.. Unless you were 18 in 2010 or 2009 then I would assume most things will hit you harder now..
“First thing we do, let’s kill all the voters.”
Governments seem to like doing that every so often. And the voters aren’t well-defended from it, because they generally are not psychopaths, and can’t always see it coming.
I suspect Trump knows some ghastly things he’s not telling us. Watch his address to the nation from Wednesday night; at 39 seconds he starts to cry.
Sounds more like he is suppressing a cough.
You can also just turn the thermostat down and bundle up. It's the heating that's causing the low humidity, after all. That approach will keep your skin from itching and your eyes from drying out, too. You can also get a humidifier, but in my limited experience, they are a mess to work with and are themselves breeding grounds of mold and other nasty stuff if they're not properly maintained.
“You can also just turn the thermostat down and bundle up. It’s the heating that’s causing the low humidity, after all.”
100% verified TrūFact. Also, tucking your head under a blanket increases one’s breathing warmth and humidity – I do this frequently when ill – but without the costs and risks of humidifiers. I don’t know why Steve lets this Dan Hessin fool continually spam the comments with his loggorhea. Dan must own a humidifier factory.
Date: March 12, 2020
Humidity helps in the fight against COVID-19
What can the public do to defend against the COVID-19 coronavirus? One simple answer is to ramp up humidification at home and in the workplace, if humidity levels are low. Hospitals treating cases of viral respiratory infection may be advised to do the same.
Why has the novel coronavirus COVID-19 had only a minimal impact in tropical countries while temperate zone countries such as China, Korea, Italy, Iran and the United States have suffered outbreaks? Humidity, and especially indoor humidity, seems to hold the key.
In 2019, a research team at Yale University Medical School published a groundbreaking study which showed how low ambient humidity hurts the ability of the immune system to fight respiratory viral infection in animal hosts. As Yale immunologist Akiko Iwasaki explains, winter months require indoor heating, which leads to low indoor humidity, which in turn leads to reduced mucociliary clearance and innate antiviral immunity, resulting in more respiratory virus in the lungs and increased mortality. Dr. Nancy Gough of Johns Hopkins University explains the Yale study thus: “When the temperature drops, the heat comes on. This reduces the amount of humidity in the air. It turns out this isn’t just uncomfortable; it also impairs the innate immune system in the respiratory tract.”
What do all the places with severe community COVID-19 outbreaks have in common? As a group of U.S. and Iranian researchers conclude in a new study posted for review on March 9, 2020, “To date, Coronavirus Disease 2019 (COVID-19), caused by SARS-CoV-2, has established significant community spread in cities and regions only along a narrow east west distribution roughly along the 30-50 N” corridor at consistently similar weather patterns”. In each of the locations of significant community spread identified by the researchers, indoor humidity ranged from about 20% to 30% in the weeks prior to outbreak, which is fairly dry. “Because of geographical proximity and significant travel connections, epidemiological modeling of the epicenter predicted that regions in Southeast Asia, and specifically Bangkok would follow Wuhan, and China in the epidemic.” Instead, the researchers noted, “COVID-19 failed to spread significantly to countries immediately south of China.”
Dr. Gough further explains the importance of humidity further, “The epithelial cells have small cellular protrusions called cilia that move the mucus to promote clearance of pathogens and particles that enter the respiratory system. Analysis of the mucus in the trachea showed that infection in low humidity resulted in the inability to of the cilia on the epithelial cells to move it. The low humidity made the mucus too thick.”
What can you do when low humidity is unavoidable? Explains Dr. Iwasaki, “A mask will certainly keep your nose and mouth warmer and more humidified. I always wear a mask on international flights for this reason, where 10% relative humidity and closed environment makes for a perfect transmission incubator.”
What should be the target humidity? The Yale team found that 50% ambient humidity at room temperature led to dramatically increased survival in their animal subjects. What if a humidifier is not available? A large pot of water carefully kept at a low boil can humidify dry winter air to healthy levels.
This new research suggests that warmer, more humid weather may soon bring relief to countries now affected by COVID-19. Until then, indoor humidification and the use of facemasks may save many lives and ultimately help the world turn the corner in the fight against this epidemic.
Key Citations:
1. Kudo et al. (2019) Low ambient humidity impairs barrier function and innate resistance against influenza infection. Proceedings of the National Academy of Sciences, 2019
2. Gough, March 1, 2020. Fighting the Flu with Humidity: Researchers discover immune system benefits of humidity.
https://medium.com/@ngough_bioserendipity/fight Fighting the Flu with Humidity
Researchers discover immune system benefits of humiditying-the-flu-with-humidity-28d4ccb42bd7
3. Sajadi et al. (2020) Temperature and Latitude Analysis to Predict Potential Spread and Seasonality for COVID-19
https://papers.ssrn.com/sol3/papers.cfm?abstract_id=3550308
Further reading:
1. Makinen et al. (2009) Cold temperature and low humidity are associated with increased occurrence of respiratory tract infections. Respiratory Medicine, Volume 103, Issue 3, March 2009, Pages 456-462
2. Salah et al. (1988) Nasal mucociliary transport in healthy subjects is slower when breathing dry air. Eur Respir J. 1988 Oct;1(9):852-5.
3. Shaman et al. (2009) Absolute humidity modulates influenza survival, transmission, and seasonality. PNAS March 3, 2009 106 (9) 3243-3248
4. Lowen et al. (2007) Influenza virus transmission is dependent on relative humidity and temperature. PLoS Pathog 3(10): 1470–1476.
5. Yang et al. (2011) Dynamics of airborne influenza A viruses indoors and dependence on humidity. PloS One 6(6): e21481.
Hospitals (and places like nursing homes) seem like the most important to get right. There is a lot of literature on hospital humidity. Most that I see recommends 40-60% RH. As long as they stay in the upper half of that range it seems reasonable.
Perhaps the bigger problem is temperature. Hospitals (especially the OR) tend to be kept cool.
http://bry-air.com/casestudies/environmental-temperature-control-systems-for-hospitals-and-infirmaries/
Have you found any references doing controlled experiments on humidity in patient care environments during flu season?
Here is some light reading:
I. Virus particles remain active longer in dry air than in humid air: citations
1. Noti et al. (2013) High Humidity Leads to Loss of Infectious Influenza Virus from Simulated Coughs. PLoS One. 2013; 8(2): e57485.
2. Tamerius JD, et al. (2013) Environmental predictors of seasonal influenza epidemics across temperate and tropical climates. PLoS Pathog 9:e1003194, and erratum 2013 Nov;9(11).
3. Shaman J, Pitzer VE, Viboud C, Grenfell BT, Lipsitch M (2010) Absolute humidity and the seasonal onset of influenza in the continental United States. PLoS Biol 8(2): e1000316.
4. Shaman J, Goldstein E, Lipsitch M (2011) Absolute humidity and pandemic versus epidemic influenza. Am J Epidemiol 173: 127–135
5. Lowen AC, Mubareka S, Steel J, Palese P (2007) Influenza virus transmission is dependent on relative humidity and temperature. PLoS Pathog 3(10): 1470–1476.
6. Schaffer FL, Soergel ME, Straube DC (1976) Survival of airborne influenza virus: effects of propagating host, relative humidity, and composition of spray fluids, Arch Virol. 51: 263–273.
7. Hanley BP, Borup B (2010) Aerosol influenza transmission risk contours: A study of humid tropics versus winter temperate zone. Virol J 7: 98.
8. Yang W, Marr LC (2011) Dynamics of airborne influenza A viruses indoors and dependence on humidity. PloS One 6(6): e21481.
9. Shaman and Kohn (2009) Absolute humidity modulates influenza survival, transmission, and seasonality. PNAS March 3, 2009 106 (9) 3243-3248
II. Susceptibility to respiratory infection is greater when ambient humidity is low than when ambient humidity is high: citations
1. Kudo et al. Low ambient humidity impairs barrier function and innate resistance against influenza infection. Proceedings of the National Academy of Sciences, 2019.
2. Makinen et al. Cold temperature and low humidity are associated with increased occurrence of respiratory tract infections. Respiratory Medicine, Volume 103, Issue 3, March 2009, Pages 456-462
3. Eccles R (2002) An explanation for the seasonality of acute upper respiratory tract viral infections. Acta Otolaryngol 122:183–191.
4. Iwasaki A, Pillai PS (2014) Innate immunity to influenza virus infection. Nat Rev Immunol 14:315–328.
5. Chen X, et al. (2018) Host immune response to influenza a virus infection. Front Immunol 9:320.
6. Taubenberger JK, Morens DM (2008) The pathology of influenza virus infections. Annu Rev Pathol 3:499–522.
7. Bustamante-Marin XM, Ostrowski LE (2017) Cilia and mucociliary clearance. Cold Spring Harb Perspect Biol 9:a028241.
8. Oozawa H, et al. (2012) Effect of prehydration on nasal mucociliary clearance in low relative humidity. Auris Nasus Larynx 39:48–52.
9. Kudo E, et al. (2019) Low ambient humidity impairs barrier function, innate resistance against influenza infection. NCBI BioProject. Available at https://www.ncbi.nlm.nih
Further reading:
Salah et al. (1988) Nasal mucociliary transport in healthy subjects is slower when breathing dry air. Eur Respir J. 1988 Oct;1(9):852-5.
Davis et al. (2016) Cold, dry air is associated with influenza and pneumonia mortality in Auckland, New Zealand. Influenza and Other Respiratory Viruses 10(4), 310–313.
Can you folks help a fellow out and let people know about humidity. I am tired!!
Also masks are very important in public in, partly to keep your own respiratory tract humidified.
You can also just turn the thermostat down and bundle up. It's the heating that's causing the low humidity, after all. That approach will keep your skin from itching and your eyes from drying out, too. You can also get a humidifier, but in my limited experience, they are a mess to work with and are themselves breeding grounds of mold and other nasty stuff if they're not properly maintained.
No. We are talking about absolute humidity.
https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Humidity#Types
That is a worthwhile concern.
But why is it low in heavily Chinese trafficked areas like ASEAN ( Malaysia, Indonesia, Thailand, Vietnam, Philippines ...)
What is really baffling is this:
Total deaths in Africa: 1
Total deaths in South America: 2
Deaths in India: 1
Why does this virus not seem to touch 6 billion humans while devastating 2 billion?
Because it’s warm and sunny there?
I suspect Trump knows some ghastly things he’s not telling us. Watch his address to the nation from Wednesday night; at 39 seconds he starts to cry.
It’s not just the UK. All non-Schengen countries are exempt, but the UK and Ireland would be the most significant ones as most of the others don’t have non-stop flights to the US. It’s easier to keep track of the people who’ve been to non-Schengen countries as they have to present a passport when entering. I’m guessing they also want it to be possible for US tourists to return home so some countries had to be exempt.
Plenty of people are simply filthy. Only now that they perceive their own hands as a threat to the health of themselves instead of everybody else do we have a reasonable expectation that they'll wash their own hands on a regular basis.
One time, after just having finished lunch in a restaurant, I went to the men’s room to take a leak, and saw one of the cooks walk out of a toilet stall and right out the door without washing up and go right back to the kitchen. Never went back there.
Perhaps the bigger problem is temperature. Hospitals (especially the OR) tend to be kept cool.
http://bry-air.com/casestudies/environmental-temperature-control-systems-for-hospitals-and-infirmaries/
Have you found any references doing controlled experiments on humidity in patient care environments during flu season?
I’m tired and I have a day job and five kids.
Here is some light reading:
I. Virus particles remain active longer in dry air than in humid air: citations
1. Noti et al. (2013) High Humidity Leads to Loss of Infectious Influenza Virus from Simulated Coughs. PLoS One. 2013; 8(2): e57485.
2. Tamerius JD, et al. (2013) Environmental predictors of seasonal influenza epidemics across temperate and tropical climates. PLoS Pathog 9:e1003194, and erratum 2013 Nov;9(11).
3. Shaman J, Pitzer VE, Viboud C, Grenfell BT, Lipsitch M (2010) Absolute humidity and the seasonal onset of influenza in the continental United States. PLoS Biol 8(2): e1000316.
4. Shaman J, Goldstein E, Lipsitch M (2011) Absolute humidity and pandemic versus epidemic influenza. Am J Epidemiol 173: 127–135
5. Lowen AC, Mubareka S, Steel J, Palese P (2007) Influenza virus transmission is dependent on relative humidity and temperature. PLoS Pathog 3(10): 1470–1476.
6. Schaffer FL, Soergel ME, Straube DC (1976) Survival of airborne influenza virus: effects of propagating host, relative humidity, and composition of spray fluids, Arch Virol. 51: 263–273.
7. Hanley BP, Borup B (2010) Aerosol influenza transmission risk contours: A study of humid tropics versus winter temperate zone. Virol J 7: 98.
8. Yang W, Marr LC (2011) Dynamics of airborne influenza A viruses indoors and dependence on humidity. PloS One 6(6): e21481.
9. Shaman and Kohn (2009) Absolute humidity modulates influenza survival, transmission, and seasonality. PNAS March 3, 2009 106 (9) 3243-3248
II. Susceptibility to respiratory infection is greater when ambient humidity is low than when ambient humidity is high: citations
1. Kudo et al. Low ambient humidity impairs barrier function and innate resistance against influenza infection. Proceedings of the National Academy of Sciences, 2019.
2. Makinen et al. Cold temperature and low humidity are associated with increased occurrence of respiratory tract infections. Respiratory Medicine, Volume 103, Issue 3, March 2009, Pages 456-462
3. Eccles R (2002) An explanation for the seasonality of acute upper respiratory tract viral infections. Acta Otolaryngol 122:183–191.
4. Iwasaki A, Pillai PS (2014) Innate immunity to influenza virus infection. Nat Rev Immunol 14:315–328.
5. Chen X, et al. (2018) Host immune response to influenza a virus infection. Front Immunol 9:320.
6. Taubenberger JK, Morens DM (2008) The pathology of influenza virus infections. Annu Rev Pathol 3:499–522.
7. Bustamante-Marin XM, Ostrowski LE (2017) Cilia and mucociliary clearance. Cold Spring Harb Perspect Biol 9:a028241.
8. Oozawa H, et al. (2012) Effect of prehydration on nasal mucociliary clearance in low relative humidity. Auris Nasus Larynx 39:48–52.
9. Kudo E, et al. (2019) Low ambient humidity impairs barrier function, innate resistance against influenza infection. NCBI BioProject. Available at https://www.ncbi.nlm.nih
Further reading:
Salah et al. (1988) Nasal mucociliary transport in healthy subjects is slower when breathing dry air. Eur Respir J. 1988 Oct;1(9):852-5.
Davis et al. (2016) Cold, dry air is associated with influenza and pneumonia mortality in Auckland, New Zealand. Influenza and Other Respiratory Viruses 10(4), 310–313.
Can you folks help a fellow out and let people know about humidity. I am tired!!
Also masks are very important in public in, partly to keep your own respiratory tract humidified.
I believe it is stopped. There are reports of hunters in remote places being punished because they caught some little birds that they shouldn’t have.
There are two different approaches to public policy: the theoretical approach and the pragmatic approach. The theoretical (apriori) approach works from abstract concepts and is based on generalizations and ideological frameworks. Theoreticians like Milton Friedman, John Maynard Keynes etc. use this approach. The pragmatic (aposteriori) approach works from empirical evidence. It asks the question “where has this idea been proven to have worked?”. Practitioners like Lee Kuan Yew, the Meiji Reformers, and Dwight Eisenhower etc. used this approach. The pragmatic approach, in my opinion, is a sounder way of formulating public policy. The theoretical approach doesn’t work too well because no mind is smart enough to anticipate all the consequences of a-priori ideas when they are applied in complex systems. People who attempt it sometimes produce devastating unintended consequences (see: Marx, Communism). It’s usually best to stick with the tried and true.
So, with regards to the corona-virus, which countries have successfully contained the virus the best? Here is a good chart:
https://pbs.twimg.com/media/ES7biiVXgAENfJF?format=jpg&name=large
South Korea, Taiwan, Singapore.
What are some of the things they have done, that have been proven to have worked?
1) Inform citizens of symptoms and their responsibilities.
2) Aggressive detention and isolation of anyone tested positive.
3) Widely-available testing.
4) Judicious hospitalization of the ill (not just everyone).
5) Early ban on travel from high-case countries.
6) Set up a coronavirus hotline. Provide twice-daily updates about the latest cases.
7) Make sure hospitals have enough equipment so they are not overwhelmed.
Here is some light reading:
I. Virus particles remain active longer in dry air than in humid air: citations
1. Noti et al. (2013) High Humidity Leads to Loss of Infectious Influenza Virus from Simulated Coughs. PLoS One. 2013; 8(2): e57485.
2. Tamerius JD, et al. (2013) Environmental predictors of seasonal influenza epidemics across temperate and tropical climates. PLoS Pathog 9:e1003194, and erratum 2013 Nov;9(11).
3. Shaman J, Pitzer VE, Viboud C, Grenfell BT, Lipsitch M (2010) Absolute humidity and the seasonal onset of influenza in the continental United States. PLoS Biol 8(2): e1000316.
4. Shaman J, Goldstein E, Lipsitch M (2011) Absolute humidity and pandemic versus epidemic influenza. Am J Epidemiol 173: 127–135
5. Lowen AC, Mubareka S, Steel J, Palese P (2007) Influenza virus transmission is dependent on relative humidity and temperature. PLoS Pathog 3(10): 1470–1476.
6. Schaffer FL, Soergel ME, Straube DC (1976) Survival of airborne influenza virus: effects of propagating host, relative humidity, and composition of spray fluids, Arch Virol. 51: 263–273.
7. Hanley BP, Borup B (2010) Aerosol influenza transmission risk contours: A study of humid tropics versus winter temperate zone. Virol J 7: 98.
8. Yang W, Marr LC (2011) Dynamics of airborne influenza A viruses indoors and dependence on humidity. PloS One 6(6): e21481.
9. Shaman and Kohn (2009) Absolute humidity modulates influenza survival, transmission, and seasonality. PNAS March 3, 2009 106 (9) 3243-3248
II. Susceptibility to respiratory infection is greater when ambient humidity is low than when ambient humidity is high: citations
1. Kudo et al. Low ambient humidity impairs barrier function and innate resistance against influenza infection. Proceedings of the National Academy of Sciences, 2019.
2. Makinen et al. Cold temperature and low humidity are associated with increased occurrence of respiratory tract infections. Respiratory Medicine, Volume 103, Issue 3, March 2009, Pages 456-462
3. Eccles R (2002) An explanation for the seasonality of acute upper respiratory tract viral infections. Acta Otolaryngol 122:183–191.
4. Iwasaki A, Pillai PS (2014) Innate immunity to influenza virus infection. Nat Rev Immunol 14:315–328.
5. Chen X, et al. (2018) Host immune response to influenza a virus infection. Front Immunol 9:320.
6. Taubenberger JK, Morens DM (2008) The pathology of influenza virus infections. Annu Rev Pathol 3:499–522.
7. Bustamante-Marin XM, Ostrowski LE (2017) Cilia and mucociliary clearance. Cold Spring Harb Perspect Biol 9:a028241.
8. Oozawa H, et al. (2012) Effect of prehydration on nasal mucociliary clearance in low relative humidity. Auris Nasus Larynx 39:48–52.
9. Kudo E, et al. (2019) Low ambient humidity impairs barrier function, innate resistance against influenza infection. NCBI BioProject. Available at https://www.ncbi.nlm.nih
Further reading:
Salah et al. (1988) Nasal mucociliary transport in healthy subjects is slower when breathing dry air. Eur Respir J. 1988 Oct;1(9):852-5.
Davis et al. (2016) Cold, dry air is associated with influenza and pneumonia mortality in Auckland, New Zealand. Influenza and Other Respiratory Viruses 10(4), 310–313.
Can you folks help a fellow out and let people know about humidity. I am tired!!
Also masks are very important in public in, partly to keep your own respiratory tract humidified.
Agreed.
Here’s one for you. How soap tears apart viruses.
https://threader.app/thread/1236549305189597189
Appears to be literally true.
I’ve never actually met a hasid jew, but I’ve been around the Amish who dress similarly and eschew parts of modernity, and they often have BO.
Not that I am complaining. Hasids and Amish are whites with TFR of 5+, doing the job of making white babies the rest of us are mostly failing at.
Does it really matter that they have a bunch of kids when both groups are extremely inbred?
https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Humidity#TypesThat is a worthwhile concern.
“No. We are talking about absolute humidity.”
That also decreases when the air is heated. From the link you yourself provided:
When air is heated, the volume increases whereas the mass of water vapor it contains stays the same. I.e., the air doesn’t magically start producing molecules of H2O in and of itself, absent some kind of external humidification. Hence, the humidity drops.
Colloquially speaking, the air becomes desert dry, to the extent that the skin starts to itch and the eyes get red and sore. You don’t need to get any more scientific than that. There are plenty of people who can vouch for that by way of actual experience.
Also, most of the work DanHessinMD is citing uses specific humidity (aka humidity ratio or mixing ratio). I talk about "absolute" humidity because that term seems to be more meaningful for most people. Specific humidity is mass based so your statement does not apply. See the Wikipedia link.The air appears to become much dryer because the relative humidity drops when it is heated.
PPart of the issue is that such a large portion of the economy is dependent on tourism, transport and other “people must travel” industries….
And of course all the various parasite industries that feed off immigrants and migrants etc
Think of Atlanta for instance….ATL and its economy is dependent like a heroin addict on smack on tourism, travelers, transportation etc
The huge airport, lots of regional warehouses and corporate headquarters, ppl going south or north must go thru ATL because of how the interstates are routed etc. Imagine if there’s a 50% drop in travelers….oops….same w Vegas, Miami, Austin, NOLA and most other tourist meccas….
London is the same….has its legs spread wide like a cheap call girl for every swinging idiot w a bit of cash to drop on hotel rooms or gift shop trinkets…..these industries buy politicians and influence like candy….without travel they shrivel up and die
So does this mean that Burning Man will be cancelled? Or merely relocated to some steamy bayou?
No worries, bro. They got you covered:
BurningMan: sweat lodges available
CV Panic!
Ohio, Maryland, New Mexico and Michigan shutdown K12 schools statewide. Ireland does nationwide. Too many citywide closings to list, include Seattle, Phoenix, San Francisco, Houston, Anchorage, Denver, Raleigh, Durham, Hartford.
The Atlantic semi-confirms Italy is leaving elderly and comorbids to die without basic treatment, they don’t even get ventilators.
https://www.theatlantic.com/ideas/archive/2020/03/who-gets-hospital-bed/607807/
Also, looking at many different methods of estimating CV in Iran gives current infections of 600k to 8 million.
https://www.theatlantic.com/ideas/archive/2020/03/irans-coronavirus-problem-lot-worse-it-seems/607663/
Japan and Korea stocks down 8% more in Friday trading. US Dow futures down another 700 points on top of today’s loss of 2352 points.
They aren’t extremely inbred.
[quote]”Second, the kind of coercive measures employed by China in Wuhan and Hubei have simply locked the virus behind the closed doors of people’s homes.
And just as soon as the constraints on freedom of movement are lifted there, the monstrous virus will rear its hideous face again.” [/quote]
–I don’t get it. They think that after a month of everyone staying at home the “monstrous virus” is still alive and well in everyone, and when people start moving about “it will rear its hideous face again”, then what are they not telling us?
This is not new; see Typhoid Mary https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Mary_Mallon
https://leakreality.com/video/304/coronavirus-dead-doesn-t-scare-londoners-as-much-as-not-being-able-to-wipe-lol
I think we know who the real "Septics" are.
Brits need to learn about bidets.
What is the alternative?
What does this sentence even mean?
The ruling classes are shitty and have a dubious history in most European countries, why just single out Britain?
And just as soon as the constraints on freedom of movement are lifted there, the monstrous virus will rear its hideous face again." [/quote]
--I don't get it. They think that after a month of everyone staying at home the "monstrous virus" is still alive and well in everyone, and when people start moving about "it will rear its hideous face again", then what are they not telling us?
Many people are asymptomatic carriers; they never feel anything but host and shed viruses. Hence, as soon as quarantining/social distancing/isolation etc., are over, the virus will start dispersing again. Till a vaccine is developed, this will be the situation – no disease multiplication when apart and multiplication when close ( just like a nuclear fissile bomb or reactor ).
This is not new; see Typhoid Mary https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Mary_Mallon
It is an example of the British “stiff upper lip”, for better or worse. British don’t really do drama and theatrics, they just accept the situation and get on with it, taking some authoritarian measures where absolutely necessary, but total authoritarianism and “lock downs” across the board would be unacceptable to most British people.
I can’t even begin to see how Britain would enforce lock downs, it would be seen as so unacceptable to many British people that it would result in social unrest and riots.
And to what extent was the decisionmaking influenced by the UK’s unusual demographic structure: POX make up a disproportionate percentage of the young, while the elderly cohorts are predominately ethnic British?
I can't even begin to see how Britain would enforce lock downs, it would be seen as so unacceptable to many British people that it would result in social unrest and riots.
How did the British adjust to blackouts in 1940?
https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=4bHVCMt_dIc
The idea that ordinary Britons would never accept authoritarian commands from on high is pure fantasy. It's pure propaganda. They have been moving steadily towards totalitarianism for the past couple of decades and they have accepted it meekly. They naturally do what their betters tell them to do.
Where are the Italian unions? I would expect them to have raised hell when the bosses brought hundreds of thousands of Chinese workers into the country. You expect such things in the U.S. but not in Europe.
Look up "number of garment workers Italy" and the results aren't about Italians. I did find one very interesting article that describes "homework" openly done in Italy (which the union for American garment workers got outlawed in this country years ago). I suppose that "homework" now goes on again today in and around New York and LA where the designers make their samples though. Homework means the employers have beaten the union and the workers down to nothing. Clearly these are illegal Asian workers described below, no one legal would accept this:I find all this sickening and it makes me angry and indigent about the native workers who are pushed out and the illegal immigrant workers who are exploited. One difference in Italy would be that their children born there would not be citizens and therefore not entitled to the social benefits that their poverty would entitle them to. I do not know if they would be allowed in their schools. In any case I suppose Italy will learn the hard way that when you only want workers you still end up with people instead, people with all their various costly needs, and people who don't want to go back to their home countries.
https://qz.com/1397139/italian-workers-are-earning-near-sweatshop-wages-to-make-luxury-clothes-in-their-homes/
Whites in southern states don’t seem to have a problem with blacks cooking for them.
Cousin marriage doesn’t count as extreme inbreeding? Does it have to be uncle-niece Hapsburg level to reach that point?
Both groups have a small number of founders and only marry within the community. Few concerts coming in to broaden the gene pool. The Amish date further back though, 300-400 years as opposed to 100-200. Some Amish communities only have a few last names…
Also both Amish and Hasidic Jewish children have much higher rates of genetic disorders.
I’m what fantasy world is that not inbreeding? Again, toms of kids does little good if the fathers/mothers suck up welfare payments because they don’t work or pay taxes the way most Americans do, and they propagate high rates of birth defects/serious disorders.
Maybe you can isolate the high risk individuals for say, a month or two while the rest of society is encouraged to get the virus. Nursing homes go into lockdown and half the carers self-isolate. The other half get the virus. Then the recovered staff go back to work and the remainder are infected.
Smokers, and the elderly go into lockdown while the rest of society gains herd immunity. Because they are low risk, not too many hospital beds are occupied.
What is wrong with this plan?
Actually makes a lot more sense to me than what’s occurring in America right now. The virus isn’t that bad for healthy people. In the UK currently 59o people have been impacted with 10 deaths. That’s based on nearly 30k tests administered.
https://www.worldometers.info/coronavirus/country/uk/
Maybe you can isolate the high risk individuals for say, a month or two while the rest of society is encouraged to get the virus. Nursing homes go into lockdown and half the carers self-isolate. The other half get the virus. Then the recovered staff go back to work and the remainder are infected.
Smokers, and the elderly go into lockdown while the rest of society gains herd immunity. Because they are low risk, not too many hospital beds are occupied.
What is wrong with this plan?
There is a possibility that the disease may cause permanent lung damage.
SARS was like this.
https://www.sciencedaily.com/releases/2020/02/200228142018.htm
The other problem as you say, is permament injury of the lungs and maybe other organs.
If we start off with the extreme social distancing and travel whitelist option, we can always switch to the herd immunity strategy at a later date. It buys us time.
Did it look like cough suppression though?
AND [CLAP] WHY [CLAP] WOULD [CLAP] THAT [CLAP] BE [CLAP]?
SARS was like this.
https://www.sciencedaily.com/releases/2020/02/200228142018.htm
It seems that the key unknowns with the “build herd immunity” strategy are that we don’t know how long or effective the immunity is. RNA viruses like COVID-19 mutate quicker than DNA viruses.
The other problem as you say, is permament injury of the lungs and maybe other organs.
If we start off with the extreme social distancing and travel whitelist option, we can always switch to the herd immunity strategy at a later date. It buys us time.
Look, nobody will read this down here at the bottom, but in response to comments supporting the UK strategy above:
1) Measures necessary to flatten the curve (slow the rate of new infections so it does not swamp hospitals) and squash the curve (drive r0 under 1), as people have been pointing out for a while, look very similar to each other. They are both extreme.
2) What the UK is openly confessing to doing, what Germany is secretly planning on doing (but now they are closing schools, so they are taking more steps), along with perhaps also Spain, is not very much of anything. Banning large gatherings is not going to slow the curve. It will have no measurable effect.
3) Germany at least, and I assume other EU countries aside from Italy, is reacting to the virus in the moment. They are speaking as if the known state of the infection today is the actual state. They are saying “of course many more people with mild symptoms are not recorded.” They are saying that they will take measures later if things get worse. Things are *already guaranteed to be several orders of magnitude worse* because a portion of those mild cases will become critical and a portion of incubating invisible cases will become mild. By the time they get worse they will be *several orders of magnitude worse again* This will keep happening.
4) I find it very doubtful that populations will find merely enduring a sudden pandemic wave acceptable. We are talking about the vast majority of all healthcare resources, maybe 75% to 80%, going to supporting the respiration of people 65 years and older. We are talking about apparent mortality creeping up to 6% as now in Italy. We are talking about parents and grandparents being turned away and left to suffocate outside in a tent. We are talking about vastly reduced resources for almost all other health problems. You are in a car accident, you have a stroke, you break your arm, you get a kidney infection, you have a heart attack: All of that happens, for several months, in a world where healthcare resources are 25% what they are now.
Yeah, right. “Delilah, fix me a mint julep!”
Well, South Koreans seem to be handling the contagion pretty well. So do the Chinese. Why not copy plans that actually work?
(I wonder if it’s Serpentor’s turn to take the minutes….)
We need to lock everyone on the left side of the Bell Curve in their homes until November 3rd.
For white people this more Republicans than Democrats.
Forgive me if I am too on-the-nose, but the title reminds me of Tex Antoine, who was a weatherman on WABC7 in New York City. He said “It is well to remember the words of Confucius: ‘If rape is inevitable, lie back and enjoy it’”
That was the first successful feminist pile-on I ever saw. Tex was gone overnight.
Rumor was he’d had a few relaxing drinks before the broadcast, thus the lapse in mouth supervision.
“So does this mean that Burning Man will be cancelled? Or merely relocated to some steamy bayou?”
No worries, bro. They got you covered:
BurningMan: sweat lodges available
Update: Italian patient zero now linked to MUNICH.
If this theory holds up, then the rapid spread of the virus in Italy is not necessarily a result of the large number of Chinese sweatshop workers crammed sewing machine to sewing machine, but maybe some combination of Italian social distance, larger number of multi-generational family situations in Italian homes, underlying prevalence of TB, and (that old Unz.com standby) heightened susceptibility of Italians to the disease. Or some combination of multiple aggravating factors. Or else, just randomness. I mean, the Bavarians aren’t being overwhelmed by the virus, and the Iranians seem to have it pretty bad too, even with just a few Chinese migrants, though Persians are relatively carefree about social distance, too, at least in comparison with Germans.
That effect is relatively small. Remember the ideal gas law PV = nRT where T is in Kelvin.
Also, most of the work DanHessinMD is citing uses specific humidity (aka humidity ratio or mixing ratio). I talk about “absolute” humidity because that term seems to be more meaningful for most people. Specific humidity is mass based so your statement does not apply. See the Wikipedia link.
The air appears to become much dryer because the relative humidity drops when it is heated.
But how long were they there? Did they already have it and it only developed once in Oz?
They developed the “Tabby” infrared vision viewer?
Also, most of the work DanHessinMD is citing uses specific humidity (aka humidity ratio or mixing ratio). I talk about "absolute" humidity because that term seems to be more meaningful for most people. Specific humidity is mass based so your statement does not apply. See the Wikipedia link.The air appears to become much dryer because the relative humidity drops when it is heated.
“Also, most of the work DanHessinMD is citing uses specific humidity (aka humidity ratio or mixing ratio). I talk about “absolute” humidity because that term seems to be more meaningful for most people.”
In that case, I guess I’m confused as to what the problem is. Your initial gripe was that this was about absolute humidity. But after I pointed out that that, too, decreases with rising temperature, however slightly, you now say that, actually, this is not about absolute humidity after all, but specific humidity.
My point remains: absent a humidifier spewing bactericidal disinfectant-laced vapor, and ions, and who knows what else depending on how it is maintained, heated air is dry air — so dry, oftentimes, that your skin will itch and your eyes and throat will parch. Quantify that however you like, using whatever humidity measure you find most convincing (relative humidity sensors are cheap and plentiful these days if your own two eyes and your skin are not convincing enough), but I’m not imagining that. Neither are the acoustic guitarists and violinists who worry about making sure their instruments are properly stored lest they crack and their bindings loosen in heated environments.
The point is that there is research which identifies specific humidity as being important for virus transmission and survival.
Relative humidity is what affects our perception of dryness (e.g. your examples), but the research indicates specific humidity is what matters for viruses.
Maybe you can isolate the high risk individuals for say, a month or two while the rest of society is encouraged to get the virus. Nursing homes go into lockdown and half the carers self-isolate. The other half get the virus. Then the recovered staff go back to work and the remainder are infected.
Smokers, and the elderly go into lockdown while the rest of society gains herd immunity. Because they are low risk, not too many hospital beds are occupied.
What is wrong with this plan?
Your plan is excellent.
But it would be racist.
If everyone needs to get the virus so that we needn’t worry about it for a generation by which time it may be gone, then you cannot protect the elderly because the majority of them are white and it would be unfair and racist to have a policy that encourages young pakistanis to get the virus while shielding elderly white people from it.
In a mono-ethnic society your plan would be taken seriously and possibly implemented. Heck, a mono ethnic society isn’t even necessary, just one that isn’t obsessed with identity politics and is capable of dealing fairly with people of any race color creed or age, as the enlightened constitutional authors of all Western civilizations insisted.
q
As I said in my earlier comment, I tend to be sloppy and use “absolute” rather than “specific” because I think the term is more obviously understandable (and the values are fairly close, as opposed to relative humidity which varies dramatically with temperature). Your volume objection was correct, but if you go read the research it is about specific humidity. Sorry about my sloppiness with the terminology.
The point is that there is research which identifies specific humidity as being important for virus transmission and survival.
Relative humidity is what affects our perception of dryness (e.g. your examples), but the research indicates specific humidity is what matters for viruses.
But why is it low in heavily Chinese trafficked areas like ASEAN ( Malaysia, Indonesia, Thailand, Vietnam, Philippines ...)
What is really baffling is this:
Total deaths in Africa: 1
Total deaths in South America: 2
Deaths in India: 1
Why does this virus not seem to touch 6 billion humans while devastating 2 billion?
In the first world, if somebody drops dead of a mysterious malady it’s cause for alarm. In the third world, it’s just Tuesday.
The season just changed abruptly here. Ten days ago it was 86 at 9 o’clock at night, now it’s 60.
It’s also been raining steadily. Once you get 2 streets from the beaches the Gold Coast is reclaimed swampland. Extremely humid and unhealthy at the moment.
I would say that by the looks of things there aren’t that many more native Italian garment workers left than native American garment workers.
Look up “number of garment workers Italy” and the results aren’t about Italians. I did find one very interesting article that describes “homework” openly done in Italy (which the union for American garment workers got outlawed in this country years ago). I suppose that “homework” now goes on again today in and around New York and LA where the designers make their samples though. Homework means the employers have beaten the union and the workers down to nothing. Clearly these are illegal Asian workers described below, no one legal would accept this:
I find all this sickening and it makes me angry and indigent about the native workers who are pushed out and the illegal immigrant workers who are exploited. One difference in Italy would be that their children born there would not be citizens and therefore not entitled to the social benefits that their poverty would entitle them to. I do not know if they would be allowed in their schools. In any case I suppose Italy will learn the hard way that when you only want workers you still end up with people instead, people with all their various costly needs, and people who don’t want to go back to their home countries.
https://qz.com/1397139/italian-workers-are-earning-near-sweatshop-wages-to-make-luxury-clothes-in-their-homes/
While we will never know the actual number of cases China had, I assume that for the study the researchers looked at the outcomes of 44,415 confirmed cases. I am no statistics expert but seems like enough cases to base judgments and predictions on.
They did what they were told. The British always do as they’re told. They’re a very sheep-like people.
The idea that ordinary Britons would never accept authoritarian commands from on high is pure fantasy. It’s pure propaganda. They have been moving steadily towards totalitarianism for the past couple of decades and they have accepted it meekly. They naturally do what their betters tell them to do.
The point is that there is research which identifies specific humidity as being important for virus transmission and survival.
Relative humidity is what affects our perception of dryness (e.g. your examples), but the research indicates specific humidity is what matters for viruses.
“Relative humidity is what affects our perception of dryness (e.g. your examples), but the research indicates specific humidity is what matters for viruses.”
I see. In that case, fair enough. While I still suspect that bundling up inhibits evaporation from the skin and thereby makes the microclimate around one’s skin more humid, it’s more the humidity in the nasal passages and eyes that optimizes resistance to infection, and maybe relative humidity is less important there. Though what Je Suis Omar Mateen said about sleeping under the covers may be important as well in that the covering/bundling inhibits moisture loss.
2) Aggressive detention and isolation of anyone tested positive.
3) Widely-available testing.
4) Judicious hospitalization of the ill (not just everyone).
5) Early ban on travel from high-case countries.
6) Set up a coronavirus hotline. Provide twice-daily updates about the latest cases.
7) Make sure hospitals have enough equipment so they are not overwhelmed.
Why wasn’t the American press informing American citizens of the symptoms during several months of media coverage?
Maybe some alarmed Brits will apply for asylum. It could be said that they flu the coop.
—> Why wasn’t the American press informing American citizens of the symptoms during several months of media coverage?
Because their primary motive is viewership/money, secondary motive is advancing their owners’ political agenda, and way down on the list is serving the public.
If it’s even on the list.
I can't even begin to see how Britain would enforce lock downs, it would be seen as so unacceptable to many British people that it would result in social unrest and riots.
How “British” is the UK anymore?
And to what extent was the decisionmaking influenced by the UK’s unusual demographic structure: POX make up a disproportionate percentage of the young, while the elderly cohorts are predominately ethnic British?
What about all the cases no one tried to confirm…that were symptomless…
Date: March 12, 2020
Humidity helps in the fight against COVID-19
What can the public do to defend against the COVID-19 coronavirus? One simple answer is to ramp up humidification at home and in the workplace, if humidity levels are low. Hospitals treating cases of viral respiratory infection may be advised to do the same.
Why has the novel coronavirus COVID-19 had only a minimal impact in tropical countries while temperate zone countries such as China, Korea, Italy, Iran and the United States have suffered outbreaks? Humidity, and especially indoor humidity, seems to hold the key.
In 2019, a research team at Yale University Medical School published a groundbreaking study which showed how low ambient humidity hurts the ability of the immune system to fight respiratory viral infection in animal hosts. As Yale immunologist Akiko Iwasaki explains, winter months require indoor heating, which leads to low indoor humidity, which in turn leads to reduced mucociliary clearance and innate antiviral immunity, resulting in more respiratory virus in the lungs and increased mortality. Dr. Nancy Gough of Johns Hopkins University explains the Yale study thus: “When the temperature drops, the heat comes on. This reduces the amount of humidity in the air. It turns out this isn’t just uncomfortable; it also impairs the innate immune system in the respiratory tract.”
What do all the places with severe community COVID-19 outbreaks have in common? As a group of U.S. and Iranian researchers conclude in a new study posted for review on March 9, 2020, “To date, Coronavirus Disease 2019 (COVID-19), caused by SARS-CoV-2, has established significant community spread in cities and regions only along a narrow east west distribution roughly along the 30-50 N” corridor at consistently similar weather patterns”. In each of the locations of significant community spread identified by the researchers, indoor humidity ranged from about 20% to 30% in the weeks prior to outbreak, which is fairly dry. “Because of geographical proximity and significant travel connections, epidemiological modeling of the epicenter predicted that regions in Southeast Asia, and specifically Bangkok would follow Wuhan, and China in the epidemic.” Instead, the researchers noted, “COVID-19 failed to spread significantly to countries immediately south of China.”
Dr. Gough further explains the importance of humidity further, “The epithelial cells have small cellular protrusions called cilia that move the mucus to promote clearance of pathogens and particles that enter the respiratory system. Analysis of the mucus in the trachea showed that infection in low humidity resulted in the inability to of the cilia on the epithelial cells to move it. The low humidity made the mucus too thick.”
What can you do when low humidity is unavoidable? Explains Dr. Iwasaki, “A mask will certainly keep your nose and mouth warmer and more humidified. I always wear a mask on international flights for this reason, where 10% relative humidity and closed environment makes for a perfect transmission incubator.”
What should be the target humidity? The Yale team found that 50% ambient humidity at room temperature led to dramatically increased survival in their animal subjects. What if a humidifier is not available? A large pot of water carefully kept at a low boil can humidify dry winter air to healthy levels.
This new research suggests that warmer, more humid weather may soon bring relief to countries now affected by COVID-19. Until then, indoor humidification and the use of facemasks may save many lives and ultimately help the world turn the corner in the fight against this epidemic.
Key Citations:
1. Kudo et al. (2019) Low ambient humidity impairs barrier function and innate resistance against influenza infection. Proceedings of the National Academy of Sciences, 2019
2. Gough, March 1, 2020. Fighting the Flu with Humidity: Researchers discover immune system benefits of humidity.
https://medium.com/@ngough_bioserendipity/fight Fighting the Flu with Humidity
Researchers discover immune system benefits of humiditying-the-flu-with-humidity-28d4ccb42bd7
3. Sajadi et al. (2020) Temperature and Latitude Analysis to Predict Potential Spread and Seasonality for COVID-19
https://papers.ssrn.com/sol3/papers.cfm?abstract_id=3550308
Further reading:
1. Makinen et al. (2009) Cold temperature and low humidity are associated with increased occurrence of respiratory tract infections. Respiratory Medicine, Volume 103, Issue 3, March 2009, Pages 456-462
2. Salah et al. (1988) Nasal mucociliary transport in healthy subjects is slower when breathing dry air. Eur Respir J. 1988 Oct;1(9):852-5.
3. Shaman et al. (2009) Absolute humidity modulates influenza survival, transmission, and seasonality. PNAS March 3, 2009 106 (9) 3243-3248
4. Lowen et al. (2007) Influenza virus transmission is dependent on relative humidity and temperature. PLoS Pathog 3(10): 1470–1476.
5. Yang et al. (2011) Dynamics of airborne influenza A viruses indoors and dependence on humidity. PloS One 6(6): e21481.
https://papers.ssrn.com/sol3/papers.cfm?abstract_id=3550308
Early speculation on the impact of weather, interesting I believe the outbreaks in Spain are in relatively cold Madrid and Basque country.
A lot of the cases in some countries are from people flying in from elsewhere, makes sense to look at sustained outbreaks.
And to what extent was the decisionmaking influenced by the UK’s unusual demographic structure: POX make up a disproportionate percentage of the young, while the elderly cohorts are predominately ethnic British?
It is very British and the response fits the culture perfectly. I’d question the assumptions that led you to make such a stupid statement.
Wouldn’t coverage of symptoms have increased interest/alarm and therefore viewership?
The UK is increasingly non-British. The mayor of London, for example, is Asian.
The question is, will the Government hold its nerve as the numbers of dead pass milestone figures: 100; 1,000; 10,000; 100,000? Instead, it is likely to resort to tough measures so that the public, as well as the Government, feel that they are "doing something".
It looks like they’ve caved after only 4 days, before even reaching 100 dead. Measures floated for mid-April are starting now.
Let’s look on the bright side: if they wipe out coronavirus in the UK without achieving “herd immunity”, they will need to ban travel from the Third World for at least a year, in order to prevent reinfection.
Most of the private schools in Bay Area closed for online classes. Commercial construction flourishing. Don’t know about retail, restaurants etc. 2 Chinese guys just delivered furniture. No masks. Chinese areas in Ca like San Gabriel in S. Ca, Millbrae, San Francisco few problems.I don’t believe the media so I’m not worried.
I flew back yesterday. There were three passengers on the plane. (We all got upgraded to first class 🙂 ).