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U. of Washington: Worst Will be Mid-April Death Peak
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Here’s a fairly optimistic forecast from Prof. Christopher J.L. Murray of the University of Washington that if the lockdown intensifies, deaths will peak in mid-April and the worst will be over by June 1, assuming we stick with it, with total deaths nationally under 100k (at least in just the First Wave).

The estimated excess demand on hospital systems is predicated on the enactment of social distancing measures in all states that have not done so already within the next week and maintenance of these measures throughout the epidemic, emphasizing the importance of implementing, enforcing, and maintaining these measures to mitigate hospital system overload and prevent deaths.

 
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  1. predicated on the enactment of social distancing measures in all states

    This person lives in a different country from the rest of us. IDK, some kind of whitopia with lots of coffee bars. Diversity don’t play that.

  2. Fox News host Judge Jeanine Pirro’s news segment started late. When she finally made it on air, she appeared to be drunk.

    • Replies: @Anon
    It's not clear to me that she is drunk. I've never seen her before, so I don't know how she normally behaves. But she doesn't seem drunk to me. Is there a particular time stamp where she is definitely drunk? There seems to be a lag between her and the senator, a satellite bounce or internet latency, that makes the conversational ping-ponging a little awkward. Is that all you're talking about?
    , @Achmed E. Newman
    That 2nd one was hilarious. You know, were I to watch TV, I'd rather see MORE of this, Johnny. We'd get a lot more honesty out of sloshed talking heads than we do now.
    , @Known Fact
    She must be working from home
    , @Ozymandias
    Half of the women on TV are nearly unrecognizable without their professional makeup crew. Doesn't mean they're drunk.
    , @Joe Stalin
    So she's a Mike Royko?
    , @Mr. Anon

    At one point a heavily inebriated Judge Jeanine is slowly nodding off while her guest talks. A quick-thinking producer gets her off screen by throwing up a graphic of "mental health tips." The first tip is "AVOID NAPS"!!!! pic.twitter.com/h16JkzldrH
     
    Think of how much more enjoyable the show would be if she slept through the whole thing.
  3. Steve, did you pick up on the comment about Belgium throwing away six million (!) masks because they were past the use date, but not replacing them?

    https://www.lemonde.fr/international/article/2020/03/25/la-belgique-toujours-en-manque-de-masques-possedait-un-stock-important-mais-l-a-detruit_6034437_3210.html

    I noticed the pic of the Belgian Health Minister – if she’s not got a BMI of 40 (making her vulnerable to coronachan at any age) she must be very close.

    • LOL: BB753
    • Replies: @Reg Cæsar

    I noticed the pic of the Belgian Health Minister – if she’s not got a BMI of 40
     
    That's a lot of waffles and sprouts!

    How else would her figure walloon to such a magnitude? I got a phlegmish reaction myself just looking at her. Excuse me, I have to run to the waterloo...

    Pardon the sound of flushing. (Oops. That's in the Netherlands.)

    , @anonguy
    One absurdity of the modern era is that someone with such a controllable health condition of choice is the national health minister.

    Oh well, I'm guessing we used to have surgeon generals who smoke, every era has its foibles, we are all humans.

    I gotta say our current surgeon general is a radiantly healthy looking dude, good example there, so good on him for that.

    Isn't Belgium super near the top on obesity rates?
    , @El Dato
    "Help me, Covid van Wuhani. You are my only chance against the bureaucracy!"

    Lors d’un épisode de ce feuilleton, on a découvert qu’une commande effectuée en Turquie avait échoué en raison d’une fraude ; à une autre occasion des masques arrivés de Chine, et promis aux soignants, se sont révélés d’une qualité insuffisante.
     
    - Ordered masks from Turkey: Turned out they got scammed
    - Ordered masks from China: Turned out that quality was too low

    Meanwhile, Taleb is not wrong:

    ‘Planes will fly with new owners’: Black Swan author Taleb urges UK to let Branson’s airline go bust

    The risk analyst has given short shrift to the suggestion of bailouts for airlines, saying that the industry was hugely influential in preventing governments from calling a halt to flights from China as the outbreak spread in the Asian country.

    However, the author reserved his most scathing analysis for Branson, whom he dubbed a “tax refugee” who “walks around virtue-faking with [the] TED [and] Davos crowd.”

    “He lives in the British Virgin Islands and since the UK has no worldwide taxation, [he] pays no taxes. Yets wants the UK taxpayer's backstop,” Taleb said, in a blistering tweet.

    "Let him go bust. Planes will fly with new owners!"

    Virgin Atlantic has been particularly badly hit by the Covid-19 crisis as it does not have the cash reserves of some of its larger competitors. It reportedly approached the UK government and the Rothschild investment bank, who are said to be handling negotiations, for a package worth hundreds of millions of pounds in loans and guarantees.
     
    I think we can write off "Virgin Galactic" (more like "Suborbital Virgin", right?)

    In other news, unis outing themselves as the exploitative pissing on the hopeful hopeless:

    From layoffs to COVID DANCE-OFFs, richest US universities drag their heels on virus response

    With their school closed due to the ongoing Covid-19 pandemic, students at New York University’s Tisch School of the Arts got in touch with college officials to ask for their tuition back. Given that a year’s tuition at the art school costs upwards of $60,000 [how much?!], they were anxious to get the money returned.

    Dean Allyson Green emailed the students back last week, denying their request. Attached to the email was a bizarre video of Green performing a lip-sync dance to REM’s classic ‘Losing My Religion,’ along with a line encouraging students to “dance along” with her.

    ...

    With a $40 billion endowment, Harvard University is the nation’s richest school. However, that didn’t stop Harvard from moving to lay off its contracted dining workers last week. Only after a pressure campaign from labor law students did the university relent. Paying these workers a living wage for four weeks’ leave would cost Harvard approximately 0.001 percent of its endowment.

    And all of this from a university whose business department once encouraged employers to “carefully consider all options for coping with a downturn before letting workers go.”
     
    The FDA also needs its dose of encapsulated RNA:

    The FDA Continues to Actively Undermine America’s Response
    , @Buzz Mohawk
    This reminds one how many fat gym teachers there are.
    , @donut
    You know that bitch better stay off the beach or the do-gooders will show up and try to roll her back into the ocean . Happened to me once . There I was trying to enjoy my day off sunning myself on the beach . The next thing I know the first batch showed up and tried to push me back into the sea but I manged to get back out of the surf . Then it was Animal Rescue and the local I-team news with the Vet splainin' how the poor baby whale must have some kinda' virus that interfered with it's "navigation system" . "Look how exhausted it is weakly flapping it's flippers" . At home the future little "humanitarians" were all "is the little baby whale going to die mommy ?" Yeah it is , tie a yellow ribbon around the old oak tree for the the endangered species . As a fitting tribute , they built a sand castle in memoriam . Stuffed animals and plastic flowers the whole works and then everybody died of the Kung Flu . I went to the liquor store and bought a 5th of Meyers .
    Hey, I was wondering , this TP crisis we're facing here on planet Earth made me curious how do they wipe their asses on the ISS ? I mean do they use TP for their cornholliols ? How would that work ? Do they send 12 packs up on the Russian Rockets , what does that cost ? What do they do with their weightless turds ? Just flush them out into space ? Do they bring them back ? Do you think there would be a market for space turds ? Remember the key chains with plastic coated buffalo turds ? Man life is just chock full of mysteries isn't it ? Kinda' puts the Chinese virus in perspective you know ?
    , @CJ
    Only six million? Minor league.

    https://www.toronto.com/opinion-story/9916365-ontario-stockpiled-55-million-face-masks-then-destroyed-them/
  4. We’re not going to stick with it. To do so would violate our principles of freedom and independence.

    Except, ICU patients are neither free nor independent.

  5. It says the peak number of deaths per day will happen around April 15th.

    Since deaths per day lags behind infections, why couldn’t the lockdown be lifted no later than mid-April? Deaths may be up to two weeks behind infections.

    Elderly Uncle Joe should be safe at that point, and he can go back to being a boomer race-traitor.

    https://covid19.healthdata.org/projections

    • Replies: @James N. Kennett

    It says the peak number of deaths per day will happen around April 15th.

    Since deaths per day lags behind infections, why couldn’t the lockdown be lifted no later than mid-April? Deaths may be up to two weeks behind infections.
     
    When the lockdown is lifted, the number of cases will once again start doubling every four days unless there are preventative measures of some kind. If the number of cases is small, then contact tracing and testing will be enough to prevent the renewed outbreak from getting out of control. In mid-April there will still be a lot of cases, and a limited testing capacity. To bring the number of cases down to a controllable level, the lockdown must last longer - probably until June.
  6. Anon[336] • Disclaimer says:
    @JohnnyWalker123
    Fox News host Judge Jeanine Pirro's news segment started late. When she finally made it on air, she appeared to be drunk.

    https://twitter.com/johnteti/status/1244108635225100289

    https://twitter.com/skolanach/status/1244090296322772992

    It’s not clear to me that she is drunk. I’ve never seen her before, so I don’t know how she normally behaves. But she doesn’t seem drunk to me. Is there a particular time stamp where she is definitely drunk? There seems to be a lag between her and the senator, a satellite bounce or internet latency, that makes the conversational ping-ponging a little awkward. Is that all you’re talking about?

    • Agree: Dave Pinsen
  7. This is starting to remind me of a book by Leon Festinger, ‘When Prophecy Fails’.

    This book gave an inside account of belief persistence in members of a UFO doomsday cult, and documented the increased proselytization they exhibited after the leader’s “end of the world” prophecy failed to come true. The prediction of the Earth’s destruction, supposedly sent by aliens to the leader of the group, became a disconfirmed expectancy that caused dissonance between the cognitions, “the world is going to end” and “the world did not end.” Although some members abandoned the group when the prophecy failed, most of the members lessened their dissonance by accepting a new belief, that the planet was spared because of the faith of the group.

    I’m not being cynical, either. Two weeks ago, we were told that 500k – 2 million US deaths were imminent. Now, it’s maybe 80k with over 90% being elderly ot with pre-existing conditions. This is no end-of-world pandemic. And for the love of God–it’s not ‘our WWII’. [STFU] It’s a once in a decade flu. Terrible for sure, but nothing close to what we were told.

    In the meantime, civil freedoms are being ripped away as we paved the way for a new style of governance called the ‘Emergency State’. We don’t even bother increasing the base number to our debt, now we just subtly jack up that weird, little exponential number at the top. And many of our livelihoods are getting torched.

    Odder still, the majority of people still support the response. Social Media companies even go out of their way to nuke dissenting facts–‘out of a concern for the welfare of others’.

    But maybe there’s a silver lining –once it becomes apparent that the response to COVID-19 was a shocking over-reaction, every journo, social media ‘influencer’, and government bureaucrat will be ridiculed and mocked mercilessly for willful buffoonery.

    Mark these words, BlueChecks: A tsunami of seething contempt is headed your way.

    • Replies: @El Dato

    But maybe there’s a silver lining –once it becomes apparent that the response to COVID-19 was a shocking over-reaction
     
    But you don't have data on the counterfactual "done nothing" scenario.

    That's the whole problem.

    , @Je Suis Omar Mateen
    "But maybe there’s a silver lining –once it becomes apparent that the response to COVID-19 was a shocking over-reaction, every journo, social media ‘influencer’, and government bureaucrat will be ridiculed and mocked mercilessly for willful buffoonery."

    Wrong. They will declare victory and indulge a nauseating public orgy of self-congratulation.
  8. I like how the graph has a range from 1,100 to 4,700 deaths/day on those peak days in mid-April. And I don’t write “like” sarcastically, as at least that presentation shows the big uncertainty in the model. He’s being honest about the range, but your average reader of his paper will just use that red dashed line as his information, and the Lyin’ Press will use the top of the pink, of course.

    I could likely get a number like this just by eating a couple of sweet potatoes and a laxative and waiting a half hour. It’s very much what I’ve seen with the Global Climate Disruption(TM) popular science. At the top and bottom of the page you linked to, it tells you to see the computer data “visualizations” they’ve done. There will be all kinds of colorful, moving, 3-D looking, graphics that are based on data that could be off by 75% lower to 200% higher.

    BTW, if you integrate* the lowest curve (bottom of the pink) you’ll get about 30,000 deaths during the month. That’s a 360,000/year rate, that when compared to a 2.7 million/year normal death rate in America, puts this thing in perspective. For the top of the pink, I’d estimate 100,000 to 110,000 during April – that’s much more significant, but 45-50% or so of average annual American deaths. Remember as this Swiss Doctor’s opinion on the Kung Flu (thank you, commenter Brabantian) says, how many people are dying from this virus vs. dying with this virus?

    .

    * In your head, because we don’t have the curve’s best-fit polynomial.

  9. @JohnnyWalker123
    Fox News host Judge Jeanine Pirro's news segment started late. When she finally made it on air, she appeared to be drunk.

    https://twitter.com/johnteti/status/1244108635225100289

    https://twitter.com/skolanach/status/1244090296322772992

    That 2nd one was hilarious. You know, were I to watch TV, I’d rather see MORE of this, Johnny. We’d get a lot more honesty out of sloshed talking heads than we do now.

    • Agree: JohnnyWalker123
  10. So, if we follow the lead of Judge J., lay in several cases of vodka or scotch, and hit them from now until June, we’ll be just fine?

  11. Actually, I just left a couple of comments on the UWash numbers, which seem pretty implausible to me:

    Well, they have some fancy Javascript charting system, but I’m *extremely* skeptical about their numbers.

    The California totals seems reasonably plausible given that our state led the nation into lockdown, and that may have largely stopped the spread of the virus. But there’s a gigantic outbreak in New York, and apparently large new ones in various other parts of the East and the Midwest.

    Since we have well over 2,000 deaths, we probably have around 2M or so infected, and much of the country isn’t under lockdown. So I just don’t see why it wouldn’t continue to spread close to exponentially.

    Anyway, just keep an eye on New York. I strongly suspect that within another week or so, the daily deaths there will demonstrate that the optimistic UWash projections make absolutely no sense.

    https://www.unz.com/isteve/the-latest/#comment-3802882

    Actually, I think it’s pretty easy to see that the UWash projections for New York don’t make any sense…

    NY has already had almost 900 deaths, so assuming 1%, that implies around 90K infections three weeks ago. The doubling-period was probably 3-6 days before the lockdown, and its hard to say how effective its been in such a dense environment. But I’d expect infections are now well over 1M, and they’re probably continuing to increase, though at a much slower rate.

    1M infections implies 10K deaths in a fully-functioning heath system. But it also generates perhaps 200K hospitalizations, almost certainly enough to crash the local health system. Once the health system crashes, we’re looking at 50K deaths. So I think something like 50K deaths in NY is already “baked into the cake” even if new infections went to zero tomorrow.

    Meanwhile, the UWash people predict *total* NY deaths at 10K to late summer. How does this make any sense?

    Maybe that French miracle drug will cure everyone. Maybe the Venusians will land on earth and save the day. But otherwise I just don’t see how the UWash numbers are plausible.

    https://www.unz.com/isteve/the-latest/#comment-3802932

    • Replies: @JohnnyWalker123
    In your opinion, how does Western Europe's situation compare to ours? If you were to compare and contrast their response to ours, in what ways do you think their response has been better or worse?
    , @Bill P
    I share your pessimism, but maybe there is reason to be hopeful. I'm in Washington state, and people are sick and dying in my neighborhood, but there has been a very noticeable change in behavior over the last week.

    Mainly, it is a change in the behavior among the old, which is what needed to happen. Finally, the 60+ crowd seems to have gotten the message. Hopefully it wasn't too late.

    I have never seen younger clientele in the local supermarket than I have over the last week. Not to say the young are flippant about this - they're keeping their distance quite admirably - but the old and at-risk are noticeably absent.

    If people can keep this up deaths might level off soon, especially if there's screening for people who work in old folks' homes, which have been where most deaths have occurred here.

    Since we live in a guilt society, I think the key here is reminding people that bad behavior could kill nice old grandparents, and that's wicked. So long as the nice old grandparents themselves behave, I have faith in our young people to also be responsible.

    My teenage kids are being very good throughout this despite the heavy demands placed on them. And the young people working in our stores and other businesses are being great and helpful. Maybe it's just where I live, but it's very reassuring to see all these kids stepping up to the plate. Makes me proud.

    No matter what some people say, even right here, Americans are decent people.
    , @BB753
    Total lockdown doesn't seem to stop contagion or fatalities in Italy or Spain. And those measures were taken in those countries a month or two weeks respectively before the US followed suit. So, I'm pretty sceptical about large cities like New York or Washington peaking in June.
    BTW, France is badly hit too and hospitals there are collapsing.
    , @Paleo Liberal
    The U Wash numbers are possible, if optimistic.

    The trouble is, we can’t make these predictions until we start seeing some inflection points on the graphs. The highly accurate predictions about the total cases and deaths in Wuhan were made when the rate of increase started dropping.

    Italy has already seen a drop in the rate of increase. The US has not.
    , @Tor597
    In hindsight, Coachella fest being cancelled in California vs New Orelans not cancelling Mardi Gras is making a huge difference.
    , @Michael W
    I wouldn't lump the French treatment with the Venusians. After reading Raoult's most recent paper, documenting treatment of 80 hospitalized patients, I think there's room for optimism. It doesn't sound like a cure, just a way to shorten recovery time and get these patients out of the hospital faster. If that works, a lot of people will still die, but from the virus, not from an overwhelmed healthcare system.
    , @Lot
    Italian deaths declined a second day, 919 to 886 to 756. There previously was a short decline like this, so they certainly could go back up. But exponential growth seems over.

    Care to revise your 2000-4000 daily deaths in NY prediction yet?
    , @Buddwing
    Ron,

    This study is based upon plugging Wuhan numbers into a model. Crucially, they accept that Wuhan used social distancing to drive the infection rate to zero.

    From the paper:

    [I]t will take time to evaluate whether social distancing adherence is fundamentally different in the US compared to Wuhan.

    Only one location has had a generalized epidemic and has currently brought new cases to 0 or near 0, namely Wuhan.



    http://www.healthdata.org/sites/default/files/files/research_articles/2020/Forecasting%20Covid19%20impact%20on%20hospital%20beds_03262020_2.pdf
  12. If we falsely imprison billions of people in their homes — the equivalent of a million lives worth of wasted time — then the disease will go away when it would have gone away anyway. And then next year we can start it all over again.

    • Replies: @Redneck farmer
    More like late this year.
  13. @Ron Unz
    Actually, I just left a couple of comments on the UWash numbers, which seem pretty implausible to me:

    Well, they have some fancy Javascript charting system, but I’m *extremely* skeptical about their numbers.

    The California totals seems reasonably plausible given that our state led the nation into lockdown, and that may have largely stopped the spread of the virus. But there’s a gigantic outbreak in New York, and apparently large new ones in various other parts of the East and the Midwest.

    Since we have well over 2,000 deaths, we probably have around 2M or so infected, and much of the country isn’t under lockdown. So I just don’t see why it wouldn’t continue to spread close to exponentially.

    Anyway, just keep an eye on New York. I strongly suspect that within another week or so, the daily deaths there will demonstrate that the optimistic UWash projections make absolutely no sense.
     
    https://www.unz.com/isteve/the-latest/#comment-3802882

    Actually, I think it’s pretty easy to see that the UWash projections for New York don’t make any sense…

    NY has already had almost 900 deaths, so assuming 1%, that implies around 90K infections three weeks ago. The doubling-period was probably 3-6 days before the lockdown, and its hard to say how effective its been in such a dense environment. But I’d expect infections are now well over 1M, and they’re probably continuing to increase, though at a much slower rate.

    1M infections implies 10K deaths in a fully-functioning heath system. But it also generates perhaps 200K hospitalizations, almost certainly enough to crash the local health system. Once the health system crashes, we’re looking at 50K deaths. So I think something like 50K deaths in NY is already “baked into the cake” even if new infections went to zero tomorrow.

    Meanwhile, the UWash people predict *total* NY deaths at 10K to late summer. How does this make any sense?

    Maybe that French miracle drug will cure everyone. Maybe the Venusians will land on earth and save the day. But otherwise I just don’t see how the UWash numbers are plausible.
     
    https://www.unz.com/isteve/the-latest/#comment-3802932

    In your opinion, how does Western Europe’s situation compare to ours? If you were to compare and contrast their response to ours, in what ways do you think their response has been better or worse?

    • Replies: @Ron Unz

    In your opinion, how does Western Europe’s situation compare to ours? If you were to compare and contrast their response to ours, in what ways do you think their response has been better or worse?
     
    Hard to say, both seem absolutely dreadful, and I think the relative body-counts will end up in the same place.

    There's obviously some regional variation. California has done pretty well, and maybe some parts of the EU will end up alright, though it's hard to say whether the full epidemic just hasn't yet hit them.
    , @Travis
    on March 11th Italy first reached 200 deaths in one day to reach 811 total deaths, it took 4 days to double the daily deaths to 400 per day in Italy as total deaths reached 1,800 on March 15th.

    On March 19th Spain had 200 death in one day as total deaths reached 831....4 days later they had over 500 deaths in one day as total deaths reached 2,200 on March 23

    On March 28th New York had 200 deaths in one day reaching 728 total deaths...if we follow the pattern of Spain and Italy we will have over 400 deaths on April first and about 2,000 total New York deaths.

    We will know in a few days if New York follows the pattern of Spain and Italy. Both nations have an almost identical death pattern so far. New York appears to be following the pattern observed in Spain ....so we should expect total deaths in New York to reach 2,000 by April 2nd

    Will be interesting to see if daily deaths keep growing in Spain and Italy. Yesterday was the highest number of daily deaths for both Italy and Spain as over 900 died in Italy and over 800 died yesterday in Spain. Maybe New York peaks at 900 deaths per day in 2 weeks. If the Trump treatment (chloroquine + zinc) works we may see deaths per day peaking in New York next week at 400.

  14. @JohnnyWalker123
    In your opinion, how does Western Europe's situation compare to ours? If you were to compare and contrast their response to ours, in what ways do you think their response has been better or worse?

    In your opinion, how does Western Europe’s situation compare to ours? If you were to compare and contrast their response to ours, in what ways do you think their response has been better or worse?

    Hard to say, both seem absolutely dreadful, and I think the relative body-counts will end up in the same place.

    There’s obviously some regional variation. California has done pretty well, and maybe some parts of the EU will end up alright, though it’s hard to say whether the full epidemic just hasn’t yet hit them.

  15. @Ron Unz
    Actually, I just left a couple of comments on the UWash numbers, which seem pretty implausible to me:

    Well, they have some fancy Javascript charting system, but I’m *extremely* skeptical about their numbers.

    The California totals seems reasonably plausible given that our state led the nation into lockdown, and that may have largely stopped the spread of the virus. But there’s a gigantic outbreak in New York, and apparently large new ones in various other parts of the East and the Midwest.

    Since we have well over 2,000 deaths, we probably have around 2M or so infected, and much of the country isn’t under lockdown. So I just don’t see why it wouldn’t continue to spread close to exponentially.

    Anyway, just keep an eye on New York. I strongly suspect that within another week or so, the daily deaths there will demonstrate that the optimistic UWash projections make absolutely no sense.
     
    https://www.unz.com/isteve/the-latest/#comment-3802882

    Actually, I think it’s pretty easy to see that the UWash projections for New York don’t make any sense…

    NY has already had almost 900 deaths, so assuming 1%, that implies around 90K infections three weeks ago. The doubling-period was probably 3-6 days before the lockdown, and its hard to say how effective its been in such a dense environment. But I’d expect infections are now well over 1M, and they’re probably continuing to increase, though at a much slower rate.

    1M infections implies 10K deaths in a fully-functioning heath system. But it also generates perhaps 200K hospitalizations, almost certainly enough to crash the local health system. Once the health system crashes, we’re looking at 50K deaths. So I think something like 50K deaths in NY is already “baked into the cake” even if new infections went to zero tomorrow.

    Meanwhile, the UWash people predict *total* NY deaths at 10K to late summer. How does this make any sense?

    Maybe that French miracle drug will cure everyone. Maybe the Venusians will land on earth and save the day. But otherwise I just don’t see how the UWash numbers are plausible.
     
    https://www.unz.com/isteve/the-latest/#comment-3802932

    I share your pessimism, but maybe there is reason to be hopeful. I’m in Washington state, and people are sick and dying in my neighborhood, but there has been a very noticeable change in behavior over the last week.

    Mainly, it is a change in the behavior among the old, which is what needed to happen. Finally, the 60+ crowd seems to have gotten the message. Hopefully it wasn’t too late.

    I have never seen younger clientele in the local supermarket than I have over the last week. Not to say the young are flippant about this – they’re keeping their distance quite admirably – but the old and at-risk are noticeably absent.

    If people can keep this up deaths might level off soon, especially if there’s screening for people who work in old folks’ homes, which have been where most deaths have occurred here.

    Since we live in a guilt society, I think the key here is reminding people that bad behavior could kill nice old grandparents, and that’s wicked. So long as the nice old grandparents themselves behave, I have faith in our young people to also be responsible.

    My teenage kids are being very good throughout this despite the heavy demands placed on them. And the young people working in our stores and other businesses are being great and helpful. Maybe it’s just where I live, but it’s very reassuring to see all these kids stepping up to the plate. Makes me proud.

    No matter what some people say, even right here, Americans are decent people.

    • Replies: @Buzz Mohawk

    No matter what some people say, even right here, Americans are decent people.
     
    Yes they are. You'll find the mean bastards on the internet. Those people do not represent us, but I suppose I'm an ignorant jingoist for saying this.

    This whole thing has got to be the longest discussion of exponential curves in the history of the world.

    , @Ron Unz

    I share your pessimism, but maybe there is reason to be hopeful. I’m in Washington state, and people are sick and dying in my neighborhood, but there has been a very noticeable change in behavior over the last week.
     
    Sure, as far as I can tell things are going pretty well in California, especially in the Silicon Valley area that I can best judge. We led the country into lock-downs almost two weeks ago, and people seem to be complying well enough that I'd hope the spread of the virus has been largely halted.

    So far CA has had 121 deaths which suggests there were around 12K infections three weeks ago. But with the early total lock-down, I'd hope the current figure is still less than 40K. That's low enough that we probably won't crash the local health system. I'm sure infections will still continue to grow and Californians will die, but the UWash estimate of 6K California deaths seems pretty plausible, perhaps even a little pessimistic.

    A couple of days ago, the papers reported some local health officials projecting 2K deaths in my own Santa Clara county, but I think that's far too high. We've had 25 deaths so far, which implies 2500 infections three weeks ago. But we also had the earliest lock-down, so I'd hope we're around 5K infections now, and perhaps may escape with just a few hundred total deaths. Considering that last month we were the American epicenter of the disease, I'm feeling pretty good about things.

    Having competent people in charge really makes all the difference during a deadly epidemic.
    , @Achmed E. Newman
    Very good comment, Bill. I've written the same about the older people needing to make their own efforts to isolate themselves. Of course, it's great if the younger people understand. As I wrote in "Et tu, Tyler?", I don't blame the young people one bit for wanting to live their lives normally, as this affects them with less chance of harm than being low-level #MeTooed, saying a "wrong" remark at school or work, or getting a DUI. I think they should make a good effort to not get near older people, but really, staying in groups of 3 or less? Does that include sex?

    We would normally take a long drive to visit a grandparent right now, but we all know, including said grandparent (with a Masters in Biology from back when it MEANT SOMETHING), that it would be a bad idea right now.

    How long we will wait before going on the next visit (usually 4-6 times a year) depends on how long this infotainment panic-fest sustains itself, and a little bit on the flu.
    , @Ozymandias
    "I have never seen younger clientele in the local supermarket than I have over the last week."

    I live in remote Wyoming. There are no reported cases in the county. Still, the grocery stores open an hour early. That hour is reserved for the at-risk. I go to the store at the regular opening time, to avoid as many people as possible. What I see at that time is a store full of scared looking old people.
  16. Anon[336] • Disclaimer says:

    OT

    The New York Times, in its efforts to discredit Trump with some oppo research, seems accidentally to have unearthed some exculpatory evidence with FOIA requests. But you have to read carefully, all the way to the end to figure it out.

    The U.S. Tried to Build a New Fleet of Ventilators. The Mission Failed.
    As the coronavirus spreads, the collapse of the project helps explain America’s acute shortage.
    https://www.nytimes.com/2020/03/29/business/coronavirus-us-ventilator-shortage.html?action=click&module=Spotlight&pgtype=Homepage

    Note that the title is “The U.S. Tried to Build …,” not “The Trump Administration Tried to Build ….”

    The word “Obama” does not appear once in the article (only the project dates, 2007-2014. The word “Fauci” appears once at the end in a way that implies he was not involved.

    Three bylined reporters and one contributing reporter. This smells like a typical NYT sting operation. That is a lot of resources to pour at an article. They seem like real reporters and not the younger SJW crowd, which is probably where the editors went wrong:

    “Use all the money you need. We want the full story on why the ventilator situation is so fucked up.” Ten days later. “Boss, we got the goods. Between 2007-2014 the U.S. had a project that would have delivered tens of thousands of $3,000 ventilators that wouldn’t even need fully skilled respiratory therapists to operate, but the adminstration fucked up and let the project stall after working prototypes had been delivered.” “Wonderful, you really earned your … wait, 2007-2014?? Uh …” “We’re good to go boss, right? Front page?” “… uh … yeah … sure … make sure I get it for a final … uh, ‘polish’.”

    Thirteen years ago, a group of U.S. public health officials came up with a plan to address what they regarded as one of the medical system’s crucial vulnerabilities: a shortage of ventilators….

    The project — code-named Aura — came in the wake of a parade of near-miss pandemics: SARS, MERS, bird flu and swine flu….

    In its first year in operation, the research agency considered how to expand the number of ventilators. It estimated that an additional 70,000 machines would be required in a moderate influenza pandemic.

    The ventilators in the national stockpile were not ideal. In addition to being big and expensive, they required a lot of training to use. The research agency convened a panel of experts in November 2007 to devise a set of requirements for a new generation of mobile, easy-to-use ventilators….

    In 2011, Newport shipped three working prototypes from the company’s California plant to Washington for federal officials to review.

    Dr. Frieden, who ran the C.D.C. at the time, got a demonstration in a small conference room attached to his office. “I got all excited,” he said. “It was a multiyear effort that had resulted in something that was going to be really useful.”

    Then a clusterfuck happened where, during the Obama administration, the company contracted to build the thing was acquired and then the Big Health acquirer decided the profit margin was too low and the Obama administration let them out of the contract that had produced working cheap ventilators that the FDA had signed off on.

    • Thanks: Mr McKenna, vhrm
    • Replies: @epebble

    profit margin was too low and the Obama administration let them out of the contract that had produced working cheap ventilators that the FDA had signed off on.
     
    Since U.S. Government paid for it, the design is public. Why didn't someone else produce these $3000 machines and make a profit when the prevailing price is $20,000? The design is easy enough that someone in China/Taiwan/S. Korea/Japan/India etc., could have done this too; they all had major outbreaks of SARS/MERS/H1N1 etc., The story appears unconvincing.
  17. @Ron Unz
    Actually, I just left a couple of comments on the UWash numbers, which seem pretty implausible to me:

    Well, they have some fancy Javascript charting system, but I’m *extremely* skeptical about their numbers.

    The California totals seems reasonably plausible given that our state led the nation into lockdown, and that may have largely stopped the spread of the virus. But there’s a gigantic outbreak in New York, and apparently large new ones in various other parts of the East and the Midwest.

    Since we have well over 2,000 deaths, we probably have around 2M or so infected, and much of the country isn’t under lockdown. So I just don’t see why it wouldn’t continue to spread close to exponentially.

    Anyway, just keep an eye on New York. I strongly suspect that within another week or so, the daily deaths there will demonstrate that the optimistic UWash projections make absolutely no sense.
     
    https://www.unz.com/isteve/the-latest/#comment-3802882

    Actually, I think it’s pretty easy to see that the UWash projections for New York don’t make any sense…

    NY has already had almost 900 deaths, so assuming 1%, that implies around 90K infections three weeks ago. The doubling-period was probably 3-6 days before the lockdown, and its hard to say how effective its been in such a dense environment. But I’d expect infections are now well over 1M, and they’re probably continuing to increase, though at a much slower rate.

    1M infections implies 10K deaths in a fully-functioning heath system. But it also generates perhaps 200K hospitalizations, almost certainly enough to crash the local health system. Once the health system crashes, we’re looking at 50K deaths. So I think something like 50K deaths in NY is already “baked into the cake” even if new infections went to zero tomorrow.

    Meanwhile, the UWash people predict *total* NY deaths at 10K to late summer. How does this make any sense?

    Maybe that French miracle drug will cure everyone. Maybe the Venusians will land on earth and save the day. But otherwise I just don’t see how the UWash numbers are plausible.
     
    https://www.unz.com/isteve/the-latest/#comment-3802932

    Total lockdown doesn’t seem to stop contagion or fatalities in Italy or Spain. And those measures were taken in those countries a month or two weeks respectively before the US followed suit. So, I’m pretty sceptical about large cities like New York or Washington peaking in June.
    BTW, France is badly hit too and hospitals there are collapsing.

    • Replies: @HA
    "Total lockdown doesn’t seem to stop contagion or fatalities in Italy or Spain."

    Not for a while, if the lockdown was preceded by giving a green light to marches (the Spanish one was Mar 8), and night life and exhortations to go on "living the way you usually do" (or else, in the case of Italy, plain ignorance about the virus, not to mention pleas to "hug-an -Asian-and-say-no-to-racism"). It presumably inhibits new contagion, and any contingent fatalities, applied after the lockdown.

    No lockdown is perfect, and the higher the prevalence of the disease before the lockdown, the more cases there will be.

    , @Anonymous

    So, I’m pretty sceptical about large cities like New York or Washington peaking in June.
     
    Meaning you believe it will peak much earlier? What is your estimate?
  18. @Bill P
    I share your pessimism, but maybe there is reason to be hopeful. I'm in Washington state, and people are sick and dying in my neighborhood, but there has been a very noticeable change in behavior over the last week.

    Mainly, it is a change in the behavior among the old, which is what needed to happen. Finally, the 60+ crowd seems to have gotten the message. Hopefully it wasn't too late.

    I have never seen younger clientele in the local supermarket than I have over the last week. Not to say the young are flippant about this - they're keeping their distance quite admirably - but the old and at-risk are noticeably absent.

    If people can keep this up deaths might level off soon, especially if there's screening for people who work in old folks' homes, which have been where most deaths have occurred here.

    Since we live in a guilt society, I think the key here is reminding people that bad behavior could kill nice old grandparents, and that's wicked. So long as the nice old grandparents themselves behave, I have faith in our young people to also be responsible.

    My teenage kids are being very good throughout this despite the heavy demands placed on them. And the young people working in our stores and other businesses are being great and helpful. Maybe it's just where I live, but it's very reassuring to see all these kids stepping up to the plate. Makes me proud.

    No matter what some people say, even right here, Americans are decent people.

    No matter what some people say, even right here, Americans are decent people.

    Yes they are. You’ll find the mean bastards on the internet. Those people do not represent us, but I suppose I’m an ignorant jingoist for saying this.

    This whole thing has got to be the longest discussion of exponential curves in the history of the world.

    • Agree: Redneck farmer
    • Replies: @Achmed E. Newman

    This whole thing has got to be the longest discussion of exponential curves in the history of the world.
     
    Buzz, from my mathematical modeling of unz.com data, those discussion threads tend to grow exponentially.
    , @Intelligent Dasein

    This whole thing has got to be the longest discussion of exponential curves in the history of the world.
     
    That should level off soon.
  19. @Bill P
    I share your pessimism, but maybe there is reason to be hopeful. I'm in Washington state, and people are sick and dying in my neighborhood, but there has been a very noticeable change in behavior over the last week.

    Mainly, it is a change in the behavior among the old, which is what needed to happen. Finally, the 60+ crowd seems to have gotten the message. Hopefully it wasn't too late.

    I have never seen younger clientele in the local supermarket than I have over the last week. Not to say the young are flippant about this - they're keeping their distance quite admirably - but the old and at-risk are noticeably absent.

    If people can keep this up deaths might level off soon, especially if there's screening for people who work in old folks' homes, which have been where most deaths have occurred here.

    Since we live in a guilt society, I think the key here is reminding people that bad behavior could kill nice old grandparents, and that's wicked. So long as the nice old grandparents themselves behave, I have faith in our young people to also be responsible.

    My teenage kids are being very good throughout this despite the heavy demands placed on them. And the young people working in our stores and other businesses are being great and helpful. Maybe it's just where I live, but it's very reassuring to see all these kids stepping up to the plate. Makes me proud.

    No matter what some people say, even right here, Americans are decent people.

    I share your pessimism, but maybe there is reason to be hopeful. I’m in Washington state, and people are sick and dying in my neighborhood, but there has been a very noticeable change in behavior over the last week.

    Sure, as far as I can tell things are going pretty well in California, especially in the Silicon Valley area that I can best judge. We led the country into lock-downs almost two weeks ago, and people seem to be complying well enough that I’d hope the spread of the virus has been largely halted.

    So far CA has had 121 deaths which suggests there were around 12K infections three weeks ago. But with the early total lock-down, I’d hope the current figure is still less than 40K. That’s low enough that we probably won’t crash the local health system. I’m sure infections will still continue to grow and Californians will die, but the UWash estimate of 6K California deaths seems pretty plausible, perhaps even a little pessimistic.

    A couple of days ago, the papers reported some local health officials projecting 2K deaths in my own Santa Clara county, but I think that’s far too high. We’ve had 25 deaths so far, which implies 2500 infections three weeks ago. But we also had the earliest lock-down, so I’d hope we’re around 5K infections now, and perhaps may escape with just a few hundred total deaths. Considering that last month we were the American epicenter of the disease, I’m feeling pretty good about things.

    Having competent people in charge really makes all the difference during a deadly epidemic.

    • Replies: @Achmed E. Newman

    Having competent people in charge really makes all the difference during a deadly epidemic.
     
    Oh, bullcrap. Other than in the middle of San Fran. or the small downtown L.A., Californians have still got lots of room to live. Even though it is TWICE as crowded a state on the whole as it was sometime in the 1970s, most people still live in detached houses or sprawled-out apartment complexes. Compare this to NY City, where people live packed in like sardines, and almost as in China.

    Speaking of China, perhaps the disease has spread most quickly where the most Chinese people have come home and gone back, in the thousands or tens of thousands during the Spring Festival time. Is there a correlation of that with the areas with most infected people in California? Speaking of that, how about in the huge Hispanic areas of LA or the Bay Area? They live closer together than the gringos for the most part due to being packed many more to a house. Is there much of the Kung Flu in the barrio-burbs? I kinda doubt it, because they don't go back and forth to China. And, no, they don't need no steeenking lock-downs, and I respect them very much for that.

    You come on here often, berate the commenters, and tell us about your wonderful mathematical modeling. Then you pull some theories out of your ass about the competency of California bureaucrats? Puhleeze!
    , @anonguy
    California, at least by comparison to other US states/cities, very much got out in front of coronavirus and it is paying off so far.

    Who knows what happens downstream but so far they've avoided the catastrophic onset like Italy or NY, leaving them in good shape for next moves.

    I'm not. a fan of the political leadership in the state but you have to give credit where due and they've been very good once they awoke to the threat.

    FWIW, some people here cant break out of their blue-red framing of everything so they see what California has done as a bad thing.

    Pedos in their cheerios types, which is another first world luxury, like SJWs with their microaggressions.

    Funny how suddenly nobody cares about any of that stuff at least, and blessedly, for the moment. Reality does that to people.

    , @Tor597
    Unz, what do you make of other hotspots emerging such as LA, Chicago, New Orleans.

    Any predictions?

    So you don't think LA will become another NY?
    , @Achmed E. Newman
    Ron, I'm sure you're still waiting impatiently for iSteve to wake up so you can read my replies, haha, but I do want to apologize for the "bullcrap" bit. I don't agree with you, but that was too far, when writing to the guy that makes this site available for all.

    Anyway, yes, I don't agree on the general worry about this Kung Flu. I really would like to make a bet with you on it*, but I also don't agree that we will really know who's right in just a month or two. By the end of this year, I want to look at the numbers of Americans who've died (along with demographic information). We can see how many and which people died over and above the normal amount in a calendar year. A 2-year basis would be even better.

    BTW, if anyone tells me that if I'm so sure of myself, go bet on the stock market shooting back up, no thanks. It was overvalued and due for a big downturn anyway. I'm not saying this in a gloating manner at all, but if it went down another 50%, that would neither surprise nor concern me. (It probably won't with the FED planning on propping it back up, in a Weekend at Bernies. manner.)

    .

    PS: Oh, he just woke up while I was writing that! I also apologize for the wording of that last sentence of that previous reply to you.. As Buzz says, there ARE a lot of assholes on the internet. Join the party, pal! ;-}

    .

    * I am trying to keep a certain level of anonymity, so I'm making that not easily possible myself.

    , @reactionry
    The Knight Who Says "Nerd"?

    "Sure, as far I can tell things are going pretty well in California, especially in the Silicon valley area that I can best judge."

    While (as Steve Sailer could likely attest - at considerable length) many of the "founders" of Silicon Valley are getting long in the tooth (if not dead), it seems likely that many of the brainy sorts working there will do relatively well given that they are relatively young (and possibly reasonably cautious) with relatively few comorbidities*. They might have, in other words, Nerd Immunity.

    * See outdated 1993 Jurassic Park: "Nedry" (a "nerdy" Wayne Knight) was obese and "Arnold" (Samuel Jackson) appeared to be a chain-smoker.

    , @dw88
    As I've lived in Santa Clara County for 40 years, I'd add that it helps that most everyone who lives here (whether in tech or a service industry) is hard working and conscientious. If you're not you won't be able to afford to live here. Also we have few high rise apartments and have plenty of space to go outside and still avoid getting within 6 feet of other people. These conditions do not hold in many other areas of the country.
    , @Stebbing Heuer
    It may be because in the west it's more common for people to live in well-separated houses, rather than living on top of one another in apartment blocks, as is common in the large cities of the east coast.

    I think that may be why we're having a relatively good time of it in Australia, where people still mostly live in houses.

    Of course, the statistics from east Asia - Japan, Korea, Taiwan - where they do live on top of one another, are inconsistent with this hypothesis, but there are other factors over there that help to mitigate the spread (mask wearing, social obedience, less interpersonal touching, an attitude of extreme prejudice towards these outbreaks).
    , @AnonAnon

    Having competent people in charge really makes all the difference during a deadly epidemic.
     
    I don't know how competent Newsom is but he does seem to be a hell of a lot better than Cuomo. How much of the shut down was due to Silicon Valley companies pressuring Newsom to act? Those companies video conference daily and send their people to Asia weekly to monitor their factories, not to mention all the Chinese-Americans with family still in China that live in San Jose/the Bay area. American relatives of people in China were buying up all the masks in sight to ship to China weeks all before San Jose initiated the first shut down. The deaths in Kirkland, Washington gave even more impetus to act early. The west coast as a whole was out front on this because of their close ties to Asia.
  20. Anonymous[841] • Disclaimer says:

    What I don’t undernstand is how to avoid the epidemic to return again, after the end of the confinement measures. I think it’s absurd imagine that the confinement will not last so long, only few months.

    • Replies: @anonguy
    It is going to be like a predator prey problem.

    With openings/closings/partial measures. Probably a lot of experimentation.

    A lot of technology and alternate social practices are going to develop and a lot of people aren't going to want to go back to the old ways.

    E.g., the longer public schools shut down, the less likely they are to be restored exactly as they existed before.

    A lot of people are going to like having their kids served remotely by online learning and leave behind the rest of the rigamarole, as well as health risks.

    As for the recreational/social/social welfare needs of kids that schools have provided, separation of concerns probably makes the solution better.

    We still are in this 19th century model of education, round them up in classroom.

    What is interesting about the shutdown is finding out what stuff really is essential, not larping.

    For instance, both carriers in Pac Fleet are out of service. This is of course an unthinkable in US defense posture, all that dangerous world yada we've been hearing since end of Cold War.

    We never got a big enough drawdown then, and a lot of boondoggles have gone on for decades now.

    So what cataclysmic thing happens now? China makes their big move or something?

    No, of course not. Nothing is going to happen, at least non-incrementally.

    Same way with school shutdowns. There was a lot of wailing about having to keep them open to deliver all the social welfare stuff.

    But we are going to find out the kids are going to be fine, and the less they get of all that ADHD medicine abuse, the better off they will be running around their yards, etc, instead of drugged and confined in a room.

    And they aren't going to be stupid. Rote knowledge poured into brains is a historical artifact in education. Information superconductivity renders that useless. Just have good analytic/critical judgment to work with the information available is what is the primary skill, not a monopoly on skill/info, which is a necessity in a society with a lot of impedance for information transmission.

    So with all these shutdowns, and a lot of it coming from staff reluctance to go to work, we are going to be getting on fine without them.

    Lot of other things like that. Like going to work, a lot of people are figuring out they aren't all that keen on the concept.

    As I keep yammering on, and esp. for those who keep doing all this green eyeshade calculating and comparisons, novel diseases cause societal/institutional distress way, way, like exponentially, there is that word again, out of proportion to the raw amount of death/biological impact from normalized/customary/understood and managed diseases or conditions like auto deaths.

    This is well known, well studied, well chronicled and analyzed stuff, not my idea/opinion. It is as predictable, IMO at least, as all the modeling of the virus' biological spread.

    Interesting times. So far, there is no firm bottom identifiable on the total impact of this.
  21. @JohnnyWalker123
    Fox News host Judge Jeanine Pirro's news segment started late. When she finally made it on air, she appeared to be drunk.

    https://twitter.com/johnteti/status/1244108635225100289

    https://twitter.com/skolanach/status/1244090296322772992

    She must be working from home

    • LOL: Cato
    • Replies: @MikeatMikedotMike
    Good point
  22. Does anyone know where we can see graphs of daily deaths rather than daily infections, as the latter depend so much on the amount of testing countries are doing?

    There are some discrepancies even with deaths (afaik the UK were only reporting people who died in hospital as CV deaths) but deaths are the bottom line and harder to hide/ignore.

    The Johns Hopkins site is great, but the graphs they do for cases don’t seem to be available for deaths.

    https://coronavirus.jhu.edu/map.html

    • Replies: @res
    These visualizations default to confirmed cases, but you can change that to deaths.
    https://91-divoc.com/pages/covid-visualization/
    You can look at the daily changes by either eyeballing the graphs or comparing the numbers in the popups you get when hovering over the data points.

    Another good option is new cases per day.
    , @LemmusLemmus
    https://www.worldometers.info/coronavirus/country/us/
  23. As says:

    What are the demographics of the dead in the US?

    Are they all old, sick people?

    Are we wrecking the economy for the benefit of old sick people?

    I keep hearing that Covid 19 is much deadlier than the flu. Again for whom? Certainly not for the young and healthy or for babies. Are they talking about old sick people?

    For young people, the cure—the economic shutdown—is worse than the disease.

    • Agree: Jonathan Silber
    • Replies: @Mike_from_SGV
    There is a lot they're not telling us. They seem to want to maximize general panic. This is why I haven't done any panic selling of stocks. Deaths of unhealthy 80-year-olds is a tragedy for the families, no question, but I can't see it being a huge long-term economic hit, unlike trillions of bad loans, or an infrastructure-destroying war. Short-term, it is a screwover of young people.
    , @jon
    This is a report on a study from the Korea Centers for Disease Control, so it only looks at the (then) 124 deaths in that country, but it's helpful:
    http://www.koreatimes.co.kr/www/nation/2020/03/113_286775.html
    Highlights:

    An analysis of coronavirus fatalities shows 86 percent of people who died from the virus in South Korea suffered high blood pressure or diabetes, or a combination of the two.
     

    Among them only nine had no pre-existing disease.
     

    the fatality rate of patients aged under 50 was below 1 percent, but rose to 1.75 percent among those in their 60s, 6.25 percent among the 70s and 13 percent among the 80s.
     
    That first statistic should be particularly sobering for America, because we are the perennial obesity champions for the OECD (and Korea is among the slimmest).
    https://www.oecd.org/health/obesity-update.htm
    , @prosa123
    What are the demographics of the dead in the US?
    Are they all old, sick people?


    Yesterday NYC released some demographic information on its deaths. Three-quarters age 75 or older, 97% with at least one other major health condition. Pretty much in line with Spain and Italy.
    , @Cato
    What about race? How about residence in suburbia vs. flat in large building? -- this kind of breakdown would clarify, for me, my family's probable danger.
  24. @Ron Unz

    I share your pessimism, but maybe there is reason to be hopeful. I’m in Washington state, and people are sick and dying in my neighborhood, but there has been a very noticeable change in behavior over the last week.
     
    Sure, as far as I can tell things are going pretty well in California, especially in the Silicon Valley area that I can best judge. We led the country into lock-downs almost two weeks ago, and people seem to be complying well enough that I'd hope the spread of the virus has been largely halted.

    So far CA has had 121 deaths which suggests there were around 12K infections three weeks ago. But with the early total lock-down, I'd hope the current figure is still less than 40K. That's low enough that we probably won't crash the local health system. I'm sure infections will still continue to grow and Californians will die, but the UWash estimate of 6K California deaths seems pretty plausible, perhaps even a little pessimistic.

    A couple of days ago, the papers reported some local health officials projecting 2K deaths in my own Santa Clara county, but I think that's far too high. We've had 25 deaths so far, which implies 2500 infections three weeks ago. But we also had the earliest lock-down, so I'd hope we're around 5K infections now, and perhaps may escape with just a few hundred total deaths. Considering that last month we were the American epicenter of the disease, I'm feeling pretty good about things.

    Having competent people in charge really makes all the difference during a deadly epidemic.

    Having competent people in charge really makes all the difference during a deadly epidemic.

    Oh, bullcrap. Other than in the middle of San Fran. or the small downtown L.A., Californians have still got lots of room to live. Even though it is TWICE as crowded a state on the whole as it was sometime in the 1970s, most people still live in detached houses or sprawled-out apartment complexes. Compare this to NY City, where people live packed in like sardines, and almost as in China.

    Speaking of China, perhaps the disease has spread most quickly where the most Chinese people have come home and gone back, in the thousands or tens of thousands during the Spring Festival time. Is there a correlation of that with the areas with most infected people in California? Speaking of that, how about in the huge Hispanic areas of LA or the Bay Area? They live closer together than the gringos for the most part due to being packed many more to a house. Is there much of the Kung Flu in the barrio-burbs? I kinda doubt it, because they don’t go back and forth to China. And, no, they don’t need no steeenking lock-downs, and I respect them very much for that.

    You come on here often, berate the commenters, and tell us about your wonderful mathematical modeling. Then you pull some theories out of your ass about the competency of California bureaucrats? Puhleeze!

    • Replies: @Inquiring Mind
    Chill, brother. The Man paying for the Bandwidth gets to troll who he wants to, and recent posts have been, measured.
    , @dr kill
    Indeed, my opinionated friend, indeed. And what about the demo in NYC? Just the fact the MFM ain't said a word about the Asian invasion of NYC tells me it is coming out of Columbus Park.
    , @utu
    "...perhaps the disease has spread most quickly where the most Chinese people have come home and gone back, in the thousands or tens of thousands during the Spring Festival time..."

    Canada: Chinese 1.77 mil out of 37.6 mil and covid 6,280/63dead
    California: Chinese 1.25 mil out of 39.56 mil and covid 5,791/123dead
    NY: Chinese 0.9 mil out of 20 mil and ovid 59,000/965 dead

    NY Chinese must be (1.25/0.9)*(59,000/5,791)=14 times more mobile that California Chinese according to your facile theory. And Canadian Chinese kill natives at (1.77/1.25)*(123/63)=2.76 lower efficacy than the California Chinese, right?

    See where the first vectors of the virus were form in British Columbia and how many were from Iran, Egypt and Europe?

    https://nationalpost.com/news/canada/covid-19-coronavirus-canadian-cases
    , @John Burns, Gettysburg Partisan

    You come on here often, berate the commenters, and tell us about your wonderful mathematical modeling. Then you pull some theories out of your ass about the competency of California bureaucrats? Puhleeze!
     
    Ron is absolutely unbelievable right now. He started off the pandemic by trying half-heartedly to blame the US for starting it with a supposed bioweapons attack, but now he's praising our health bureaucrats for saving s.
  25. @Bill P
    I share your pessimism, but maybe there is reason to be hopeful. I'm in Washington state, and people are sick and dying in my neighborhood, but there has been a very noticeable change in behavior over the last week.

    Mainly, it is a change in the behavior among the old, which is what needed to happen. Finally, the 60+ crowd seems to have gotten the message. Hopefully it wasn't too late.

    I have never seen younger clientele in the local supermarket than I have over the last week. Not to say the young are flippant about this - they're keeping their distance quite admirably - but the old and at-risk are noticeably absent.

    If people can keep this up deaths might level off soon, especially if there's screening for people who work in old folks' homes, which have been where most deaths have occurred here.

    Since we live in a guilt society, I think the key here is reminding people that bad behavior could kill nice old grandparents, and that's wicked. So long as the nice old grandparents themselves behave, I have faith in our young people to also be responsible.

    My teenage kids are being very good throughout this despite the heavy demands placed on them. And the young people working in our stores and other businesses are being great and helpful. Maybe it's just where I live, but it's very reassuring to see all these kids stepping up to the plate. Makes me proud.

    No matter what some people say, even right here, Americans are decent people.

    Very good comment, Bill. I’ve written the same about the older people needing to make their own efforts to isolate themselves. Of course, it’s great if the younger people understand. As I wrote in “Et tu, Tyler?”, I don’t blame the young people one bit for wanting to live their lives normally, as this affects them with less chance of harm than being low-level #MeTooed, saying a “wrong” remark at school or work, or getting a DUI. I think they should make a good effort to not get near older people, but really, staying in groups of 3 or less? Does that include sex?

    We would normally take a long drive to visit a grandparent right now, but we all know, including said grandparent (with a Masters in Biology from back when it MEANT SOMETHING), that it would be a bad idea right now.

    How long we will wait before going on the next visit (usually 4-6 times a year) depends on how long this infotainment panic-fest sustains itself, and a little bit on the flu.

  26. @Buzz Mohawk

    No matter what some people say, even right here, Americans are decent people.
     
    Yes they are. You'll find the mean bastards on the internet. Those people do not represent us, but I suppose I'm an ignorant jingoist for saying this.

    This whole thing has got to be the longest discussion of exponential curves in the history of the world.

    This whole thing has got to be the longest discussion of exponential curves in the history of the world.

    Buzz, from my mathematical modeling of unz.com data, those discussion threads tend to grow exponentially.

    • LOL: Redneck farmer
  27. @Ron Unz
    Actually, I just left a couple of comments on the UWash numbers, which seem pretty implausible to me:

    Well, they have some fancy Javascript charting system, but I’m *extremely* skeptical about their numbers.

    The California totals seems reasonably plausible given that our state led the nation into lockdown, and that may have largely stopped the spread of the virus. But there’s a gigantic outbreak in New York, and apparently large new ones in various other parts of the East and the Midwest.

    Since we have well over 2,000 deaths, we probably have around 2M or so infected, and much of the country isn’t under lockdown. So I just don’t see why it wouldn’t continue to spread close to exponentially.

    Anyway, just keep an eye on New York. I strongly suspect that within another week or so, the daily deaths there will demonstrate that the optimistic UWash projections make absolutely no sense.
     
    https://www.unz.com/isteve/the-latest/#comment-3802882

    Actually, I think it’s pretty easy to see that the UWash projections for New York don’t make any sense…

    NY has already had almost 900 deaths, so assuming 1%, that implies around 90K infections three weeks ago. The doubling-period was probably 3-6 days before the lockdown, and its hard to say how effective its been in such a dense environment. But I’d expect infections are now well over 1M, and they’re probably continuing to increase, though at a much slower rate.

    1M infections implies 10K deaths in a fully-functioning heath system. But it also generates perhaps 200K hospitalizations, almost certainly enough to crash the local health system. Once the health system crashes, we’re looking at 50K deaths. So I think something like 50K deaths in NY is already “baked into the cake” even if new infections went to zero tomorrow.

    Meanwhile, the UWash people predict *total* NY deaths at 10K to late summer. How does this make any sense?

    Maybe that French miracle drug will cure everyone. Maybe the Venusians will land on earth and save the day. But otherwise I just don’t see how the UWash numbers are plausible.
     
    https://www.unz.com/isteve/the-latest/#comment-3802932

    The U Wash numbers are possible, if optimistic.

    The trouble is, we can’t make these predictions until we start seeing some inflection points on the graphs. The highly accurate predictions about the total cases and deaths in Wuhan were made when the rate of increase started dropping.

    Italy has already seen a drop in the rate of increase. The US has not.

  28. I read the first half of Murray’s paper, scanned the second half, and scanned the Appendix. I’ll return to it later, perhaps an informed reader can comment in the meantime.

    Unless I’m missing something, Murray isn’t seeing the forest for the trees. His model doesn’t seem to make infections (and thus deaths) to be a function of the fraction of the population that’s susceptible to infection. Projections of infections, usages of hospital beds, ICU beds, & ventilators, and deaths seem instead to be a function of the efficacy of social distancing measures.

    This is in stark contrast to other models, eg Neil Ferguson’s, where the key drivers are infection rate and pool of susceptible people. This is the crux of “herd immunity,” and the arguments that Greg Cochran and Tomas Pueyo (among others) make. If you reduce new infections by partly-effective measures, at the end of that period, there is still (1) sources of infection ie a few contagious people, and (2) a large pool of people naive to the virus. These folks are available for new infections once the measures are relaxed and they again go to weddings, etc. So the exponential phase re-starts, becoming evident 4 to 6 weeks after the relaxation date.

    I looked for the model’s projections on the pool of as-yet-uninfected people (as a number or as a fraction of the population) over time, and didn’t see it.

    When Murray shows a simple up-and-down curve centered on mid-April (as reproduced in the OP), he seems to be ignoring this dynamic entirely.

    If this really is the way he is modeling infections, hospitalizations, and deaths — then it seems to me that his projections aren’t valid.

    • Replies: @AnotherDad


    These folks are available for new infections once the measures are relaxed and they again go to weddings, etc.
     
    Way off topic, but am i the only one who is jaded on "weddings" now?

    When young women were chaste and weddings celebrated "sacrificing a virgin", the start of conjugal relations, and ergo of family, this was a legitimate and worthy community event

    Now, with young women, ticking through their serial "boyfriends" and then usually sleeping with and finally living with the poor sap for at least a year or two ... the whole "wedding" thing just strikes me as typical female attention whoring. "Oh, look at me i got--insert name of poor sap here--to put a ring on it." Gag.

    I'm a married-with-children guy and a big believer in traditional family, the bedrock of nation and civilization. And I can't see any reason to humor this attention whoring for 90% of women today. Just go to the court house and get your legal paperwork. When you've made a baby then we'll offer congratulations. When you've made and raised three or four babies into fine young adults, then 25 years on we can all have a party and laud you as solid citizens. (But by then, you'll, of course, know it is not the celebrating or attention but the doing of it--the building of family, that is all that matters.)
    , @ic1000
    I re-read the paper. Murray does consider infection rate of the general population. Page 2:

    [Other published models] generally suggest that given current estimates of [R], 25% to 70% of the population will eventually become infected. Based on reported case-fatality rates, these projections imply that there would be millions of deaths in the United States due to COVID-19. However, individual behavioral responses and government-mandated social distancing (school closures, non-essential service closures, and shelter-in-place orders) can dramatically influence the course of the epidemic. In Wuhan, strict social distancing was instituted on January 23, 2020, and by the time new infections reached 1 or fewer a day (March 15, 2020), the confirmed proportion of the population infected was less than 0.5%.
     
    Page 6 (emphasis added):

    This study has generated the first set of estimates of predicted health service utilization and deaths due to COVID-19 by day for the next 4 months for all US states, assuming that social distancing efforts will continue throughout the epidemic.
     
    It's unfortunate that Murray doesn't add a figure that explicitly shows the projected infection rate; my interpretation is that it remains at Wuhan-like levels (<0.5%) throughout. So, highly effective social-distancing for the duration of the epidemic is the key to the low death numbers, since they follow from low infection numbers. Notably, Murray does not stratify the population by compliance to containment measures. As best I can tell, the government decrees, and the model's obedient population uniformly obeys.

    Since this is a short-term study of the next 4 months only, what-happens-next is not explored. The implication is that Singapore/South Korea style contact tracing would be implemented everywhere by the time containment measures are lifted. International travel would have to be severely restricted and accompanied by screening and quarantines. In this way, the virus would be kept at bay until a vaccine is available. Or it will follow the SARS/MERS path, and be eliminated entirely.

    So it seems that Murray's model is a granular look at the next four months under a successful implementation of Cochran/Pueyo "Nuke the Curve" policies.
  29. @JohnnyWalker123
    In your opinion, how does Western Europe's situation compare to ours? If you were to compare and contrast their response to ours, in what ways do you think their response has been better or worse?

    on March 11th Italy first reached 200 deaths in one day to reach 811 total deaths, it took 4 days to double the daily deaths to 400 per day in Italy as total deaths reached 1,800 on March 15th.

    On March 19th Spain had 200 death in one day as total deaths reached 831….4 days later they had over 500 deaths in one day as total deaths reached 2,200 on March 23

    On March 28th New York had 200 deaths in one day reaching 728 total deaths…if we follow the pattern of Spain and Italy we will have over 400 deaths on April first and about 2,000 total New York deaths.

    We will know in a few days if New York follows the pattern of Spain and Italy. Both nations have an almost identical death pattern so far. New York appears to be following the pattern observed in Spain ….so we should expect total deaths in New York to reach 2,000 by April 2nd

    Will be interesting to see if daily deaths keep growing in Spain and Italy. Yesterday was the highest number of daily deaths for both Italy and Spain as over 900 died in Italy and over 800 died yesterday in Spain. Maybe New York peaks at 900 deaths per day in 2 weeks. If the Trump treatment (chloroquine + zinc) works we may see deaths per day peaking in New York next week at 400.

  30. @JohnnyWalker123
    Fox News host Judge Jeanine Pirro's news segment started late. When she finally made it on air, she appeared to be drunk.

    https://twitter.com/johnteti/status/1244108635225100289

    https://twitter.com/skolanach/status/1244090296322772992

    Half of the women on TV are nearly unrecognizable without their professional makeup crew. Doesn’t mean they’re drunk.

  31. @JohnnyWalker123
    Fox News host Judge Jeanine Pirro's news segment started late. When she finally made it on air, she appeared to be drunk.

    https://twitter.com/johnteti/status/1244108635225100289

    https://twitter.com/skolanach/status/1244090296322772992

    So she’s a Mike Royko?

  32. @Bill P
    I share your pessimism, but maybe there is reason to be hopeful. I'm in Washington state, and people are sick and dying in my neighborhood, but there has been a very noticeable change in behavior over the last week.

    Mainly, it is a change in the behavior among the old, which is what needed to happen. Finally, the 60+ crowd seems to have gotten the message. Hopefully it wasn't too late.

    I have never seen younger clientele in the local supermarket than I have over the last week. Not to say the young are flippant about this - they're keeping their distance quite admirably - but the old and at-risk are noticeably absent.

    If people can keep this up deaths might level off soon, especially if there's screening for people who work in old folks' homes, which have been where most deaths have occurred here.

    Since we live in a guilt society, I think the key here is reminding people that bad behavior could kill nice old grandparents, and that's wicked. So long as the nice old grandparents themselves behave, I have faith in our young people to also be responsible.

    My teenage kids are being very good throughout this despite the heavy demands placed on them. And the young people working in our stores and other businesses are being great and helpful. Maybe it's just where I live, but it's very reassuring to see all these kids stepping up to the plate. Makes me proud.

    No matter what some people say, even right here, Americans are decent people.

    “I have never seen younger clientele in the local supermarket than I have over the last week.”

    I live in remote Wyoming. There are no reported cases in the county. Still, the grocery stores open an hour early. That hour is reserved for the at-risk. I go to the store at the regular opening time, to avoid as many people as possible. What I see at that time is a store full of scared looking old people.

  33. @Ron Unz

    I share your pessimism, but maybe there is reason to be hopeful. I’m in Washington state, and people are sick and dying in my neighborhood, but there has been a very noticeable change in behavior over the last week.
     
    Sure, as far as I can tell things are going pretty well in California, especially in the Silicon Valley area that I can best judge. We led the country into lock-downs almost two weeks ago, and people seem to be complying well enough that I'd hope the spread of the virus has been largely halted.

    So far CA has had 121 deaths which suggests there were around 12K infections three weeks ago. But with the early total lock-down, I'd hope the current figure is still less than 40K. That's low enough that we probably won't crash the local health system. I'm sure infections will still continue to grow and Californians will die, but the UWash estimate of 6K California deaths seems pretty plausible, perhaps even a little pessimistic.

    A couple of days ago, the papers reported some local health officials projecting 2K deaths in my own Santa Clara county, but I think that's far too high. We've had 25 deaths so far, which implies 2500 infections three weeks ago. But we also had the earliest lock-down, so I'd hope we're around 5K infections now, and perhaps may escape with just a few hundred total deaths. Considering that last month we were the American epicenter of the disease, I'm feeling pretty good about things.

    Having competent people in charge really makes all the difference during a deadly epidemic.

    California, at least by comparison to other US states/cities, very much got out in front of coronavirus and it is paying off so far.

    Who knows what happens downstream but so far they’ve avoided the catastrophic onset like Italy or NY, leaving them in good shape for next moves.

    I’m not. a fan of the political leadership in the state but you have to give credit where due and they’ve been very good once they awoke to the threat.

    FWIW, some people here cant break out of their blue-red framing of everything so they see what California has done as a bad thing.

    Pedos in their cheerios types, which is another first world luxury, like SJWs with their microaggressions.

    Funny how suddenly nobody cares about any of that stuff at least, and blessedly, for the moment. Reality does that to people.

    • Agree: Ron Unz, Mike_from_SGV
    • Troll: fenestol
    • Replies: @Sebastian Hawks
    The "car culture" hipsters and environmental wackos love to castigate sure comes in handy when you can be alone in your car safe from infection as opposed to being packed on public transport like sardines.
    , @vhrm
    i dislike what California has done because i don't believe that it's necessary and it is also an incredible curtailment of civil rights.

    There are many steps between "do nothing" and what our fearful leaders went with.

    In the past week with the closings of county and state parks and beaches it's really taking on (or revealing) a punitive tone.

    Also, what's the next step here? We keep it shut down for months and then what?

    How do you prevent reinfection from other states? or abroad?

    If covid-19 is serious enough that we needed to do all this, we're still screwed because we'll be reinfected anyway.

    If the reinfection or resurgence isn't a concern, then the shutdown was overkill.

  34. I didn’t get this in on “The Latest” thread, but the core issue in all these projections are the “social distancing” measures sufficiently effective? We know cases continue to climb. But we’re now able to test so, that tells us pretty much nothing.

    To me–what i see from my very white middle class neighborhood–the social distancing should be more than adequate to squelch this epidemic. In other words, i wouldn’t think that 1 virus positive person is infecting more than one person.

    The mask thing–rather the lack of masks thing–is annoying and ridiculous. (And still the CDC’s advice is “you don’t need a mask”. CYA for the grotesque failures.)

    There are indications that this virus–compared to common cold and flu–is particularly good at shedding before and after symptoms, or from asymtomatic, which would make this much, much harder to contain.

    But if these social distancing measures are sufficient, then given they really kicked into gear a week or ten days back and the virus takes 15-20 days to kill people, then we should start to see some flattening of new Covid-19 tagged deaths in another couple weeks–mid April.

    Of course, i’m speculating about the measures i see my community. There are likely differences in behavior/compliance in different er, um … “population groups”, that keep this thing humming.

    • Replies: @Anonymous

    There are indications that this virus–compared to common cold and flu–is particularly good at shedding before and after symptoms, or from asymtomatic
     
    Citation or evidence needed.

    Given that the virus primarily replicates in lung cells, it doesn’t make any sense that it would be easily transmissible by asymptomatic individuals.
    , @MBlanc46
    Mme B and I are doing our best. Other population groups elsewhere are on their own.
  35. Anonymous[389] • Disclaimer says:

    https://mobile.twitter.com/raoult_didier/status/1244237477826703360

    Raoult is knocking the death rate down to .10%

    Posting his results daily.

    All of these other eggheads weighing in with their modeling should factor this guy’s work in.

    How about factoring in also the idea that all of the establishment is working a co-morbidity scam to pad the numbers.

  36. I don’t know how to upload a picture, but I’ve been plotting cases and deaths in Santa Clara county, CA, and the latest data point for cases shows a bending of the curve down from exponential. The exponential curve fit would have predicted over 700 new cases on 3/27, but there were only 591. It’s only one data point, but it’s something…

  37. @Ron Unz

    I share your pessimism, but maybe there is reason to be hopeful. I’m in Washington state, and people are sick and dying in my neighborhood, but there has been a very noticeable change in behavior over the last week.
     
    Sure, as far as I can tell things are going pretty well in California, especially in the Silicon Valley area that I can best judge. We led the country into lock-downs almost two weeks ago, and people seem to be complying well enough that I'd hope the spread of the virus has been largely halted.

    So far CA has had 121 deaths which suggests there were around 12K infections three weeks ago. But with the early total lock-down, I'd hope the current figure is still less than 40K. That's low enough that we probably won't crash the local health system. I'm sure infections will still continue to grow and Californians will die, but the UWash estimate of 6K California deaths seems pretty plausible, perhaps even a little pessimistic.

    A couple of days ago, the papers reported some local health officials projecting 2K deaths in my own Santa Clara county, but I think that's far too high. We've had 25 deaths so far, which implies 2500 infections three weeks ago. But we also had the earliest lock-down, so I'd hope we're around 5K infections now, and perhaps may escape with just a few hundred total deaths. Considering that last month we were the American epicenter of the disease, I'm feeling pretty good about things.

    Having competent people in charge really makes all the difference during a deadly epidemic.

    Unz, what do you make of other hotspots emerging such as LA, Chicago, New Orleans.

    Any predictions?

    So you don’t think LA will become another NY?

    • Replies: @Ron Unz

    Unz, what do you make of other hotspots emerging such as LA, Chicago, New Orleans.

    Any predictions?

    So you don’t think LA will become another NY?
     
    Well, I haven't been following LA as closely as my own Santa Clara county, but it only has 32 deaths so far, suggesting 32K infections three weeks ago. It went into lock-down a day or two after my own area, so I'd hope the spread of the infection was drastically reduced at that point. Steve can certainly provide a better picture of whether LA people are complying or not. I'd hope it doesn't do too much worse than the rest of CA.

    Meanwhile, the situation in many of those places around the US seems awful, and I'd expect some of them to more or less follow the NY trajectory, with absolutely massive fatalities.
  38. @Ron Unz
    Actually, I just left a couple of comments on the UWash numbers, which seem pretty implausible to me:

    Well, they have some fancy Javascript charting system, but I’m *extremely* skeptical about their numbers.

    The California totals seems reasonably plausible given that our state led the nation into lockdown, and that may have largely stopped the spread of the virus. But there’s a gigantic outbreak in New York, and apparently large new ones in various other parts of the East and the Midwest.

    Since we have well over 2,000 deaths, we probably have around 2M or so infected, and much of the country isn’t under lockdown. So I just don’t see why it wouldn’t continue to spread close to exponentially.

    Anyway, just keep an eye on New York. I strongly suspect that within another week or so, the daily deaths there will demonstrate that the optimistic UWash projections make absolutely no sense.
     
    https://www.unz.com/isteve/the-latest/#comment-3802882

    Actually, I think it’s pretty easy to see that the UWash projections for New York don’t make any sense…

    NY has already had almost 900 deaths, so assuming 1%, that implies around 90K infections three weeks ago. The doubling-period was probably 3-6 days before the lockdown, and its hard to say how effective its been in such a dense environment. But I’d expect infections are now well over 1M, and they’re probably continuing to increase, though at a much slower rate.

    1M infections implies 10K deaths in a fully-functioning heath system. But it also generates perhaps 200K hospitalizations, almost certainly enough to crash the local health system. Once the health system crashes, we’re looking at 50K deaths. So I think something like 50K deaths in NY is already “baked into the cake” even if new infections went to zero tomorrow.

    Meanwhile, the UWash people predict *total* NY deaths at 10K to late summer. How does this make any sense?

    Maybe that French miracle drug will cure everyone. Maybe the Venusians will land on earth and save the day. But otherwise I just don’t see how the UWash numbers are plausible.
     
    https://www.unz.com/isteve/the-latest/#comment-3802932

    In hindsight, Coachella fest being cancelled in California vs New Orelans not cancelling Mardi Gras is making a huge difference.

  39. Also as a PSA:

    Fauci, the six president beltway insider as much personally responsible for current US fiasco struggling to reposition himself, reminded us yesterday that, as I pointed out.

    THERE CURRENTLY IS NO EVIDENCE THAT ONE GAINS IMMUNITY TO CORONAVIRUS

    He cheerfully and optimistically opined that he would bet anything that there would be, although whether it would be one month or permanent, he didn’t specify, so that was kind of weaselly, most laymen assume immunity means 100% and forever, whereas it means something else to med researchers.

    One thing I’ll credit the guy is he won’t tell a flat out lie and he’s actually not doing the fail by omission or failure to be forthright.

    He’s been pretty good about blurting out the truth, unlike the past thirty years, who ever heard of the guy, but obviously central to US public health stuff and all the games there.

    • Replies: @anonguy
    I'd also note that the scattered, anecdotal, and quite possibly outlier, edge cases, that suggest reinfection may be an issue could also be relapses, it is unclear which would explain some of the cases.

    So it could be true that one gains immunity but still be subject to relapses.

    And to Fauci, immunity can mean anywhere between partial and short term on a spectrum to full and forever, unlike american who thinks of it as full and forever or nothing.

    I'm hoping he clarifies that point, I'm guessing that he will have followup questions a lot.
    , @Jack D

    THERE CURRENTLY IS NO EVIDENCE THAT ONE GAINS IMMUNITY TO CORONAVIRUS

    He cheerfully and optimistically opined that he would bet anything that there would be,
     
    I think you got the ALL CAPS backward. The leading epidemiologist in the US if not the world said that HE WOULD BET ANYTHING THAT YOU GAIN IMMUNITY.

    Of course this is a novel virus and it hasn't been comprehensively studied yet, so as a scientist he made full disclosure that evidence is still lacking either way, but there's no reason to believe that it is different from almost all other known viruses, from which you gain at least temporary or partial immunity after recovery.

    If Dr. Fauci told you, "I would bet anything that this new flavor of ice cream makes you fat, but there is currently no evidence that it does," you'd go out and binge on 5 gallons of the stuff because you are hearing what you want to hear.
    , @CJ
    I remember Fauci from the era of AIDS panic. Everything about that was and remains sketchy. BTW Fauci is 79, repeat 79 years old.
  40. @ic1000
    I read the first half of Murray's paper, scanned the second half, and scanned the Appendix. I'll return to it later, perhaps an informed reader can comment in the meantime.

    Unless I'm missing something, Murray isn't seeing the forest for the trees. His model doesn't seem to make infections (and thus deaths) to be a function of the fraction of the population that's susceptible to infection. Projections of infections, usages of hospital beds, ICU beds, & ventilators, and deaths seem instead to be a function of the efficacy of social distancing measures.

    This is in stark contrast to other models, eg Neil Ferguson's, where the key drivers are infection rate and pool of susceptible people. This is the crux of "herd immunity," and the arguments that Greg Cochran and Tomas Pueyo (among others) make. If you reduce new infections by partly-effective measures, at the end of that period, there is still (1) sources of infection ie a few contagious people, and (2) a large pool of people naive to the virus. These folks are available for new infections once the measures are relaxed and they again go to weddings, etc. So the exponential phase re-starts, becoming evident 4 to 6 weeks after the relaxation date.

    I looked for the model's projections on the pool of as-yet-uninfected people (as a number or as a fraction of the population) over time, and didn't see it.

    When Murray shows a simple up-and-down curve centered on mid-April (as reproduced in the OP), he seems to be ignoring this dynamic entirely.

    If this really is the way he is modeling infections, hospitalizations, and deaths -- then it seems to me that his projections aren't valid.

    These folks are available for new infections once the measures are relaxed and they again go to weddings, etc.

    Way off topic, but am i the only one who is jaded on “weddings” now?

    When young women were chaste and weddings celebrated “sacrificing a virgin”, the start of conjugal relations, and ergo of family, this was a legitimate and worthy community event

    Now, with young women, ticking through their serial “boyfriends” and then usually sleeping with and finally living with the poor sap for at least a year or two … the whole “wedding” thing just strikes me as typical female attention whoring. “Oh, look at me i got–insert name of poor sap here–to put a ring on it.” Gag.

    I’m a married-with-children guy and a big believer in traditional family, the bedrock of nation and civilization. And I can’t see any reason to humor this attention whoring for 90% of women today. Just go to the court house and get your legal paperwork. When you’ve made a baby then we’ll offer congratulations. When you’ve made and raised three or four babies into fine young adults, then 25 years on we can all have a party and laud you as solid citizens. (But by then, you’ll, of course, know it is not the celebrating or attention but the doing of it–the building of family, that is all that matters.)

    • Replies: @William Badwhite

    When young women were chaste and weddings celebrated “sacrificing a virgin”, the start of conjugal relations, and ergo of family, this was a legitimate and worthy community event

     

    That's funny. Mr. and Mrs. Badwhite got married relatively late (32 an 31 years old). After the service one of my friend's father (who knew I had been pretty prolific in my 20's) said "congratulations. Now you get to finally try sex".

    Plus, women still get all the benefits of marriage but (at least in no-fault divorce states) have managed to unload the responsibilities. Marriage (in the US at least) is mostly just a really crappy one-way contract that screws males. In what other aspect of contract law does one party have the right to not only breach the contract, but to continue to be treated as if they didn't?
    , @Anonymous
    It’s difficult to believe anyone who hates women as much as you do is married or has ever had a relationship with a woman.

    Your pornographic obsession with what you wrongly believe to be the sex lives of people you don’t know and will never meet is unseemly, perverted, pornographic and weird. You must spend a lot of time pleasuring yourself as you think of those tens of millions of promiscuous sluts out there. If you were married, you wouldn’t be thinking about strangers sex lives all the time. You’d be thinking about your wife.

    You must believe every word in the National Enquirer.
  41. Meanwhile the NYC government has released some new guidelines on how to have sex in the most responsible ways.

    https://www1.nyc.gov/assets/doh/downloads/pdf/imm/covid-sex-guidance.pdf

    Considering how brevity is a powerful quality in any set of guidelines, I couldn’t believe my eyes when I saw this line:

    Have sex only with consenting partners.

    I’ll bet there was a rapist looking up the NYC safe pandemic sex guidelines who has made a different decision now. Good job!

    • Replies: @Buzz Mohawk
    They probably have boilerplate written by Ivy League lawyers stating that this does not constitute an endorsement of sex by the City of New York and that there is no guarantee of satisfaction.

    Next, they'll require you to sign waivers and hold harmless agreements before you f**k, unless they just outlaw it altogether as too dangerous. "Prevent the spread of coronavirus. Stay home and use porn." -- Governor Cuomo, next President of the United States

    Nearby in Bridgeport, Connecticut, the mayor, a convicted felon who got re-elected after serving his time for bribery and kickbacks, was on local TV yesterday in a toilet stall demonstrating how not to flush Clorox disinfectant wipes down the toilet. He doesn't want the two-digit IQ people who elected him clogging up the sewage system.

    , @AnotherDad

    • You are your safest sex partner. Masturbation will not spread COVID-19, especially if you
    wash your hands (and any sex toys) with soap and water for at least 20 seconds before
    and after sex.
    • The next safest partner is someone you live with. Having close contact — including sex
    — with only a small circle of people helps prevent spreading COVID-19. Have sex only
    with consenting partners.

    • You should avoid close contact — including sex — with anyone outside your household.
    If you do have sex with others, have as few partners as possible.
     
    Wa, wa, wa ... it's just such a terrible burden to limit yourself to one partner. How can we ask people to do it? (I guessing this is in there for the queers.) Celibacy? LOL.

    Nothing--not even pandemic--should stop the left's most important value after ramming "diversity" down our throats--i.e. promiscuity and trashing the traditional family.
  42. @Ron Unz
    Actually, I just left a couple of comments on the UWash numbers, which seem pretty implausible to me:

    Well, they have some fancy Javascript charting system, but I’m *extremely* skeptical about their numbers.

    The California totals seems reasonably plausible given that our state led the nation into lockdown, and that may have largely stopped the spread of the virus. But there’s a gigantic outbreak in New York, and apparently large new ones in various other parts of the East and the Midwest.

    Since we have well over 2,000 deaths, we probably have around 2M or so infected, and much of the country isn’t under lockdown. So I just don’t see why it wouldn’t continue to spread close to exponentially.

    Anyway, just keep an eye on New York. I strongly suspect that within another week or so, the daily deaths there will demonstrate that the optimistic UWash projections make absolutely no sense.
     
    https://www.unz.com/isteve/the-latest/#comment-3802882

    Actually, I think it’s pretty easy to see that the UWash projections for New York don’t make any sense…

    NY has already had almost 900 deaths, so assuming 1%, that implies around 90K infections three weeks ago. The doubling-period was probably 3-6 days before the lockdown, and its hard to say how effective its been in such a dense environment. But I’d expect infections are now well over 1M, and they’re probably continuing to increase, though at a much slower rate.

    1M infections implies 10K deaths in a fully-functioning heath system. But it also generates perhaps 200K hospitalizations, almost certainly enough to crash the local health system. Once the health system crashes, we’re looking at 50K deaths. So I think something like 50K deaths in NY is already “baked into the cake” even if new infections went to zero tomorrow.

    Meanwhile, the UWash people predict *total* NY deaths at 10K to late summer. How does this make any sense?

    Maybe that French miracle drug will cure everyone. Maybe the Venusians will land on earth and save the day. But otherwise I just don’t see how the UWash numbers are plausible.
     
    https://www.unz.com/isteve/the-latest/#comment-3802932

    I wouldn’t lump the French treatment with the Venusians. After reading Raoult’s most recent paper, documenting treatment of 80 hospitalized patients, I think there’s room for optimism. It doesn’t sound like a cure, just a way to shorten recovery time and get these patients out of the hospital faster. If that works, a lot of people will still die, but from the virus, not from an overwhelmed healthcare system.

  43. Anon[762] • Disclaimer says:

    Have read about a “far UVC” purple light with a 220 nm wavelength that doesnt penetrate the skin enough to cause skin cancers associated with UV purple light, but should still kill viruses. Its a Columbia University link if anyone wants to websearch it. Dont know about the eyesight angle here though.

    Thinking of ways we could decontaminate the most oft-touched surfaces and spaces effectively. Store’s entrance Door handles, I would think, and cashier areas, perhaps could benefit from some sort of directed spray lighting that constantly disinfects?

    • Replies: @Steve Sailer
    With spring arriving, we could just leave store doors open during open hours, without wasting too much heat or air conditioning.
    , @Known Fact
    I'm thinking that within a few years every building might have some kind of small decontamination chamber or device at each entrance -- emitting some spray, cleansing light rays or radiation
  44. I don’t think modeling at such an early stage of a pandemic in a country as enormous as the United States is of much value. As of this moment nearly half of our total cases are concentrated in NYC and thus the numbers are heavily driven by this single epicenter. Any modeling done using current data goes out the window the minute other epicenters such as Louisiana or Florida reach critical mass. The country is just far too heterogeneous in all manner of parameters (policy, density, stage of infection, etc) for modeling to be remotely accurate right now. Model NYC? Sure. The USA? No way.

    • Agree: Paleo Liberal, Ron Unz
    • Replies: @James Speaks

    I don’t think modeling at such an early stage of a pandemic in a country as enormous as the United States is of much value. As of this moment nearly half of our total cases are concentrated in NYC and thus the numbers are heavily driven by this single epicenter. Any modeling done using current data goes out the window the minute other epicenters such as Louisiana or Florida reach critical mass. The country is just far too heterogeneous in all manner of parameters (policy, density, stage of infection, etc) for modeling to be remotely accurate right now. Model NYC? Sure. The USA? No way.
     
    Modeling per se, where you take an assumed Ro value and predict infections, deaths etc through differing phases is problematic when the mitigation steps taken change daily, not to mention the inaccuracies in the assumptions.

    What it is useful for is to develop understanding of the mechanics of this particular pandemic so that effective steps can be duplicated and ineffective measures given up. Saves time, money and lives.

    I've been making semi-log plots of actual total cases versus time for the world, the world except China and Korea, US and my home state. All graphs are quasi-parallel, showing only minor deviations when distancing is introduced, then travel restrictions. The only major effect is when lockdown/quarantine is imposed.
  45. Somewhat OT, but a 33 year old female aide to the governor of Louisiana has died from Wuhan complications. See the typically breathless story from CNN.

    https://www.cnn.com/2020/03/29/health/april-dunn-coronavirus/index.html

    Obviously, she is the woman at the bottom of the picture, the governor’s disabilities person.

    And just as obviously, she hasn’t been riding the Peloton faithfully, though that particular fitness tool is aimed at thin and bulimic-inclined urban white women under 35.

    Anyway, sad of course, but for heaven’s sake if you are in wheel chair permanently, do go out.

    • Replies: @The Wild Geese Howard
    Just looking at that photo I can guarantee she has diabetes and at least one heart condition.

    I'd bet money she has several other significant health issues.

    Being 33 is not a guarantor of great health, despite what the lunatics on CNN want us to believe.
    , @Je Suis Omar Mateen
    "Obviously, she is the woman at the bottom of the picture, the governor’s disabilities person."

    Like the Hair Club for Men, she's not just the president - she's a client!
  46. Anonymous[147] • Disclaimer says:
    @AnotherDad
    I didn't get this in on "The Latest" thread, but the core issue in all these projections are the "social distancing" measures sufficiently effective? We know cases continue to climb. But we're now able to test so, that tells us pretty much nothing.

    To me--what i see from my very white middle class neighborhood--the social distancing should be more than adequate to squelch this epidemic. In other words, i wouldn't think that 1 virus positive person is infecting more than one person.

    The mask thing--rather the lack of masks thing--is annoying and ridiculous. (And still the CDC's advice is "you don't need a mask". CYA for the grotesque failures.)

    There are indications that this virus--compared to common cold and flu--is particularly good at shedding before and after symptoms, or from asymtomatic, which would make this much, much harder to contain.

    But if these social distancing measures are sufficient, then given they really kicked into gear a week or ten days back and the virus takes 15-20 days to kill people, then we should start to see some flattening of new Covid-19 tagged deaths in another couple weeks--mid April.

    Of course, i'm speculating about the measures i see my community. There are likely differences in behavior/compliance in different er, um ... "population groups", that keep this thing humming.

    There are indications that this virus–compared to common cold and flu–is particularly good at shedding before and after symptoms, or from asymtomatic

    Citation or evidence needed.

    Given that the virus primarily replicates in lung cells, it doesn’t make any sense that it would be easily transmissible by asymptomatic individuals.

  47. Anonymous[389] • Disclaimer says:

    By mid April there will a lot more HCQ pumping through America’s veins.

    We’ve entered The Great Chloriquine War.

    The scumbag media + medical establishment is working to reduce demand via FEAR and cut supply lines and alter Didier Raoult’s treatment so as to render it ineffective —- while simultaneously hoarding HCQ+ZPACK for themselves and their families.

    Check out Columbia head surgeon Craig Smith’s letters to staff. The guy sounds like Jim Comey.

    It’s a war.

    How to sabotage Raoult:

    Begin treatment late instead of early

    Prescribe HCQ alone

    Refuse treatment by screening per clinical trial parameters

    Outlaw off label use (already done in MI and NV)

  48. According to the CDC there have been about 24,000 deaths from regular flu this flu season.

    https://www.cdc.gov/flu/weekly/index.htm

    According to the CDC there have been 1,668 deaths from the China virus.

    https://www.cdc.gov/coronavirus/2019-ncov/cases-updates/cases-in-us.html

    Stay cowering in place Steve.

    • Replies: @Inquiring Mind
    Infectious diseases are give place names (such Lyme Disease after the town of Old Lyme, Connecticut) except in response to political exigencies.

    The Plague of Justinian, however, was named after a political leader/ruler.

    I propose that this illness, at least for referring to he here in iSteve, be named The Plague of Xi Jinping.
  49. Don’t look now, but Corona-chan may have served up a Great White Defendant:

    3, including infant, killed by reckless driver violating coronavirus ban, cops say

    https://www.nj.com/middlesex/2020/03/3-die-including-infant-after-mans-pickup-truck-plows-into-minivan-police-say.html

    Patrick Monahan, 38, of Staten Island, was charged with three counts of aggravated manslaughter, three counts of vehicular homicide and one count of aggravated assault…passengers in the minivan struck by Monahan, Maria De Lourdes Aguerra, 47, and Maria Garcia, 44, both of Elizabeth, were pronounced dead at the scene of the crash, police said.

    An 8-month old infant in the minivan was airlifted to Robert Wood Johnson University Hospital but died later died…

  50. Hoax for dumb people.

    Go back to work.

    • Replies: @Anonymous (n)
    Ok hoaxer.
    , @Achmed E. Newman
    When's the last time I (almost) agreed with you, Truth? '18, '17?

    ;-}
  51. Swedish Death Panel prioritizes immivaders over grandma and grandpa:

    Sweden Health Board Says Elderly Can Be Given Lower Priority, But Not Illegal Migrants

    https://www.breitbart.com/europe/2020/03/29/sweden-health-board-prioritise-migrants-over-swedes-with-pre-existing-conditions-elderly-for-virus-care/

    Sweden’s National Board of Health and Welfare has created guidelines for the priority of care for Chinese coronavirus patients that could see elderly Swedish citizens left to die in favour of illegal migrants.

    • Replies: @BenKenobi
    But THIS IS NOT replacement.
    , @YetAnotherAnon
    "Swedish Death Panel prioritizes immivaders over grandma and grandpa"

    In Holland, euthanasia central, doctors are ringing up elderly people to ask them if they mind staying at home if they get CV, in order to free up beds for people with a better chance of survival.

    https://www.theguardian.com/world/live/2020/mar/29/coronavirus-live-news-trump-proposes-quarantine-of-new-york-and-other-hotspots?page=with:block-5e80afc58f08af215f6fd873#block-5e80afc58f08af215f6fd873

    "Dutch GPs are phoning elderly and at-risk patients to check if they are willing to take the risk of dying at home in case they get Covid-19, so that their hospital bed can be taken up by someone with better survival chances, the Volkskrant newspaper reported.

    In the Dutch healthcare system such conversations are normally carried out face to face.

    Bianca Buurman, professor of acute elderly care at Amsterdam UMC, emphasised in an article published with three other colleagues the importance for healthcare providers to contact elderly people to ask what their wishes would be if they were affected by the virus.

    “Proximity is important for such tough topics, but going by is not an option now,” Buurman said. “We don’t really know whether such a conversation will further fuel fear.”"
     
    And this lady is a professor of elderly care !
  52. @ic1000
    I read the first half of Murray's paper, scanned the second half, and scanned the Appendix. I'll return to it later, perhaps an informed reader can comment in the meantime.

    Unless I'm missing something, Murray isn't seeing the forest for the trees. His model doesn't seem to make infections (and thus deaths) to be a function of the fraction of the population that's susceptible to infection. Projections of infections, usages of hospital beds, ICU beds, & ventilators, and deaths seem instead to be a function of the efficacy of social distancing measures.

    This is in stark contrast to other models, eg Neil Ferguson's, where the key drivers are infection rate and pool of susceptible people. This is the crux of "herd immunity," and the arguments that Greg Cochran and Tomas Pueyo (among others) make. If you reduce new infections by partly-effective measures, at the end of that period, there is still (1) sources of infection ie a few contagious people, and (2) a large pool of people naive to the virus. These folks are available for new infections once the measures are relaxed and they again go to weddings, etc. So the exponential phase re-starts, becoming evident 4 to 6 weeks after the relaxation date.

    I looked for the model's projections on the pool of as-yet-uninfected people (as a number or as a fraction of the population) over time, and didn't see it.

    When Murray shows a simple up-and-down curve centered on mid-April (as reproduced in the OP), he seems to be ignoring this dynamic entirely.

    If this really is the way he is modeling infections, hospitalizations, and deaths -- then it seems to me that his projections aren't valid.

    I re-read the paper. Murray does consider infection rate of the general population. Page 2:

    [Other published models] generally suggest that given current estimates of [R], 25% to 70% of the population will eventually become infected. Based on reported case-fatality rates, these projections imply that there would be millions of deaths in the United States due to COVID-19. However, individual behavioral responses and government-mandated social distancing (school closures, non-essential service closures, and shelter-in-place orders) can dramatically influence the course of the epidemic. In Wuhan, strict social distancing was instituted on January 23, 2020, and by the time new infections reached 1 or fewer a day (March 15, 2020), the confirmed proportion of the population infected was less than 0.5%.

    Page 6 (emphasis added):

    This study has generated the first set of estimates of predicted health service utilization and deaths due to COVID-19 by day for the next 4 months for all US states, assuming that social distancing efforts will continue throughout the epidemic.

    It’s unfortunate that Murray doesn’t add a figure that explicitly shows the projected infection rate; my interpretation is that it remains at Wuhan-like levels (<0.5%) throughout. So, highly effective social-distancing for the duration of the epidemic is the key to the low death numbers, since they follow from low infection numbers. Notably, Murray does not stratify the population by compliance to containment measures. As best I can tell, the government decrees, and the model's obedient population uniformly obeys.

    Since this is a short-term study of the next 4 months only, what-happens-next is not explored. The implication is that Singapore/South Korea style contact tracing would be implemented everywhere by the time containment measures are lifted. International travel would have to be severely restricted and accompanied by screening and quarantines. In this way, the virus would be kept at bay until a vaccine is available. Or it will follow the SARS/MERS path, and be eliminated entirely.

    So it seems that Murray's model is a granular look at the next four months under a successful implementation of Cochran/Pueyo "Nuke the Curve" policies.

    • Thanks: keypusher
    • Replies: @Altai
    deCode in Iceland has estimates from random sampling of 0.68-1% of Icelanders already infected 2 weeks ago.
  53. Anonymous[324] • Disclaimer says:

    Who is running the hospitals? An army of James Comeys?

    https://pbs.twimg.com/media/EUEPRf6WsAE5ZDw?format=jpg

  54. Anonymous[324] • Disclaimer says:

    When your leadership drones on about how the virus doesn’t discriminate based on race color creed etc you know you’re fucked.

    PC will get you killed. That’s why doctors are quietly hoarding the “Trump meds” for themselves and their families… they want to live.

    https://pbs.twimg.com/media/EUN27mhXQAADIfA?format=jpg

  55. @Altai
    Meanwhile the NYC government has released some new guidelines on how to have sex in the most responsible ways.

    https://www1.nyc.gov/assets/doh/downloads/pdf/imm/covid-sex-guidance.pdf

    Considering how brevity is a powerful quality in any set of guidelines, I couldn't believe my eyes when I saw this line:


    Have sex only with consenting partners.
     
    I'll bet there was a rapist looking up the NYC safe pandemic sex guidelines who has made a different decision now. Good job!

    They probably have boilerplate written by Ivy League lawyers stating that this does not constitute an endorsement of sex by the City of New York and that there is no guarantee of satisfaction.

    Next, they’ll require you to sign waivers and hold harmless agreements before you f**k, unless they just outlaw it altogether as too dangerous. “Prevent the spread of coronavirus. Stay home and use porn.” — Governor Cuomo, next President of the United States

    Nearby in Bridgeport, Connecticut, the mayor, a convicted felon who got re-elected after serving his time for bribery and kickbacks, was on local TV yesterday in a toilet stall demonstrating how not to flush Clorox disinfectant wipes down the toilet. He doesn’t want the two-digit IQ people who elected him clogging up the sewage system.

  56. @Truth
    Hoax for dumb people.

    Go back to work.

    Ok hoaxer.

  57. deaths will peak in mid-April and the worst will be over by June 1

    Imagine if they peaked on Friday the 10th, and everything got better on Sunday the 12th.

  58. @The Wild Geese Howard
    Swedish Death Panel prioritizes immivaders over grandma and grandpa:

    Sweden Health Board Says Elderly Can Be Given Lower Priority, But Not Illegal Migrants

    https://www.breitbart.com/europe/2020/03/29/sweden-health-board-prioritise-migrants-over-swedes-with-pre-existing-conditions-elderly-for-virus-care/

    Sweden’s National Board of Health and Welfare has created guidelines for the priority of care for Chinese coronavirus patients that could see elderly Swedish citizens left to die in favour of illegal migrants.
     

    But THIS IS NOT replacement.

  59. There’s an hour long interview with John Ioannidis on YouTube, “Perspectives on the Pandemic | Dr John Ioannidis of Stanford University | Interview.”

  60. @Buzz Mohawk

    No matter what some people say, even right here, Americans are decent people.
     
    Yes they are. You'll find the mean bastards on the internet. Those people do not represent us, but I suppose I'm an ignorant jingoist for saying this.

    This whole thing has got to be the longest discussion of exponential curves in the history of the world.

    This whole thing has got to be the longest discussion of exponential curves in the history of the world.

    That should level off soon.

  61. Even if this had rolled out unchecked, it’s turned out to be “flu 10X”–ten times as lethal, skewing even more heavily elderly. Regular flu may infect say 50m Americans a year and kill 25-50,000, most elderly or health compromised. Death rate–.05%-.1%.

    In a naive population this thing would roll and roll quite a bit further–maybe 200 million infected. Maybe a million dead, almost all of them elderly or with serious health issues. The death rate in future years would be somewhat suppressed as a result of this early cull. I’d guess no more than even 5% of these would be healthy people taken significantly “early”. A number akin to our traffic death rate.

    And that isn’t going to happen. Because we’ve upped the hygiene and social distancing. (Though still laughable ridiculous on masks.)

    • Replies: @AnotherDad
    I'm not saying we wouldn't get our hair mussed, but i do say, no more than one to two million killed, tops.
  62. @Truth
    Hoax for dumb people.

    Go back to work.

    When’s the last time I (almost) agreed with you, Truth? ’18, ’17?

    ;-}

    • Replies: @Truth
    You know you're my Boy.
  63. @The Wild Geese Howard
    Swedish Death Panel prioritizes immivaders over grandma and grandpa:

    Sweden Health Board Says Elderly Can Be Given Lower Priority, But Not Illegal Migrants

    https://www.breitbart.com/europe/2020/03/29/sweden-health-board-prioritise-migrants-over-swedes-with-pre-existing-conditions-elderly-for-virus-care/

    Sweden’s National Board of Health and Welfare has created guidelines for the priority of care for Chinese coronavirus patients that could see elderly Swedish citizens left to die in favour of illegal migrants.
     

    “Swedish Death Panel prioritizes immivaders over grandma and grandpa”

    In Holland, euthanasia central, doctors are ringing up elderly people to ask them if they mind staying at home if they get CV, in order to free up beds for people with a better chance of survival.

    https://www.theguardian.com/world/live/2020/mar/29/coronavirus-live-news-trump-proposes-quarantine-of-new-york-and-other-hotspots?page=with:block-5e80afc58f08af215f6fd873#block-5e80afc58f08af215f6fd873

    “Dutch GPs are phoning elderly and at-risk patients to check if they are willing to take the risk of dying at home in case they get Covid-19, so that their hospital bed can be taken up by someone with better survival chances, the Volkskrant newspaper reported.

    In the Dutch healthcare system such conversations are normally carried out face to face.

    Bianca Buurman, professor of acute elderly care at Amsterdam UMC, emphasised in an article published with three other colleagues the importance for healthcare providers to contact elderly people to ask what their wishes would be if they were affected by the virus.

    “Proximity is important for such tough topics, but going by is not an option now,” Buurman said. “We don’t really know whether such a conversation will further fuel fear.””

    And this lady is a professor of elderly care !

  64. @AnotherDad
    Even if this had rolled out unchecked, it's turned out to be "flu 10X"--ten times as lethal, skewing even more heavily elderly. Regular flu may infect say 50m Americans a year and kill 25-50,000, most elderly or health compromised. Death rate--.05%-.1%.

    In a naive population this thing would roll and roll quite a bit further--maybe 200 million infected. Maybe a million dead, almost all of them elderly or with serious health issues. The death rate in future years would be somewhat suppressed as a result of this early cull. I'd guess no more than even 5% of these would be healthy people taken significantly "early". A number akin to our traffic death rate.

    And that isn't going to happen. Because we've upped the hygiene and social distancing. (Though still laughable ridiculous on masks.)

    I’m not saying we wouldn’t get our hair mussed, but i do say, no more than one to two million killed, tops.

    • LOL: BenKenobi
    • Replies: @Jenner Ickham Errican
    “What do you figure for breakage?”

    https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=tb6V_vcIlqM
  65. @Altai
    Meanwhile the NYC government has released some new guidelines on how to have sex in the most responsible ways.

    https://www1.nyc.gov/assets/doh/downloads/pdf/imm/covid-sex-guidance.pdf

    Considering how brevity is a powerful quality in any set of guidelines, I couldn't believe my eyes when I saw this line:


    Have sex only with consenting partners.
     
    I'll bet there was a rapist looking up the NYC safe pandemic sex guidelines who has made a different decision now. Good job!

    • You are your safest sex partner. Masturbation will not spread COVID-19, especially if you
    wash your hands (and any sex toys) with soap and water for at least 20 seconds before
    and after sex.
    • The next safest partner is someone you live with. Having close contact — including sex
    — with only a small circle of people helps prevent spreading COVID-19. Have sex only
    with consenting partners.

    • You should avoid close contact — including sex — with anyone outside your household.
    If you do have sex with others, have as few partners as possible.

    Wa, wa, wa … it’s just such a terrible burden to limit yourself to one partner. How can we ask people to do it? (I guessing this is in there for the queers.) Celibacy? LOL.

    Nothing–not even pandemic–should stop the left’s most important value after ramming “diversity” down our throats–i.e. promiscuity and trashing the traditional family.

    • Replies: @Reg Cæsar

    Nothing–not even pandemic–should stop the left’s most important value after ramming “diversity” down our throats...
     
    Actually, they prefer the other end of the alimentary canal.
    , @anonymous

    Nothing–not even pandemic–should stop the left’s most important value after ramming “diversity” down our throats–i.e. promiscuity and trashing the traditional family.
     
    Just had a conversation with a liberal friend. He went on about how he thought Jordan Peterson was an idiot, and he didn't like him. I asked what his major issue was with him, he said, "I don't remember. He's just an asshole, that's all. He's stupid."

    I said, "but can't you come up with just one defining idea of his that forced you to conclude that there was no hope for him? Like take Hitler for example. If you asked me about why I don't like him, I could tell you that his singular approach for reorganizing the Jews left much to be desired. Not a fan."

    He still couldn't do it. Nothing.

    So then I ask, "do you enjoy Rachel Maddow?" He said, "I LOVE Rachel Maddow. I watch her every day! She's what's helping me get through all this! She's brilliant!" I said, "really? Somehow, I don't see it the way you do. She seems like somebody who isn't as intelligent as I'd like. Really just another pundit." "Oh, NO! She's brilliant! She was a Rhodes Scholar!"

    I said, "Well, since we know she was caught completely flat-footed, and even seemed to cry a little, the day after Trump was elected, while popular fat shlub Michael Moore was telling democrats to 'look out, Trump's gonna win,' wouldn't that tend to undermine your Rhodes Scholar qualification, in relation an exceptional ability to align one's self to reality? Maybe a Rhodes Scholarship can be abused or perverted, should someone decide to devote themselves to a reality that doesn't exist–and pay a staff to write her essays, which are labelled to cue cards, which she reads to you every day."

    Anyway... it went shitty from there, and I moved onto other subjects.

    Conclusion: If someone's identity, position in life, or paycheck depends on them believing a goldfish is swimming in their mouth 24/7, that is the belief they are going to have. Waiting for them to change requires waiting for them to die of, hopefully, natural causes.
    , @Gary in Gramercy
    "Mr. President, we must not allow a Mineshaft gap!"
  66. Quarantine Queens was a great idea.

    The medical establishment makes no sense.

    I am under lockdown in the county I live in. My state has 2000 cases.

    But quarantining New York City and the to state area is out of the question.

    • Replies: @Mr McKenna
    Cuomo declared that any attempt by Trump to quarantine the tri-state area was 'tantamount to a declaration of war'. What? I thought we did declare war on this thing. But no, Cuomo specifically threatened "Civil War" if we tried to stop NYC-area denizens from fanning out across the country spreading coron.

    Trump should have gone to the mat with Cuomo over this. What's he afraid of, losing tri-state votes? Now the MSM will be playing this as yet another of Trump's failures to keep the country safe.

    https://www.theblaze.com/news/regional_quarantine_civil_war_cuomo

    “If you start walling off areas all across the country it would just be totally bizarre, counter-productive, anti-American, anti-social," Cuomo said.

    “It makes absolutely no sense and I don't think any serious governmental personality or professional would support it," he added.
     

    Build bridges, not walls! We need a 'Corona-Bridge' meme.
  67. HA says:
    @BB753
    Total lockdown doesn't seem to stop contagion or fatalities in Italy or Spain. And those measures were taken in those countries a month or two weeks respectively before the US followed suit. So, I'm pretty sceptical about large cities like New York or Washington peaking in June.
    BTW, France is badly hit too and hospitals there are collapsing.

    “Total lockdown doesn’t seem to stop contagion or fatalities in Italy or Spain.”

    Not for a while, if the lockdown was preceded by giving a green light to marches (the Spanish one was Mar 8), and night life and exhortations to go on “living the way you usually do” (or else, in the case of Italy, plain ignorance about the virus, not to mention pleas to “hug-an -Asian-and-say-no-to-racism”). It presumably inhibits new contagion, and any contingent fatalities, applied after the lockdown.

    No lockdown is perfect, and the higher the prevalence of the disease before the lockdown, the more cases there will be.

  68. In two years time the number of deaths by suicide from the economically devastated will be found (but not broadly reported) to far exceed those killed by the Chinese Flu.

    • Agree: Spud Boy
    • Replies: @Thomas

    In two years time the number of deaths by suicide from the economically devastated will be found (but not broadly reported) to far exceed those killed by the Chinese Flu.
     
    There are about 48,000 suicides a year in the United States. This disease is projected to kill 100,000-200,000 even with stringent isolation and could kill 1-2 million if we don't.
  69. @Achmed E. Newman

    Having competent people in charge really makes all the difference during a deadly epidemic.
     
    Oh, bullcrap. Other than in the middle of San Fran. or the small downtown L.A., Californians have still got lots of room to live. Even though it is TWICE as crowded a state on the whole as it was sometime in the 1970s, most people still live in detached houses or sprawled-out apartment complexes. Compare this to NY City, where people live packed in like sardines, and almost as in China.

    Speaking of China, perhaps the disease has spread most quickly where the most Chinese people have come home and gone back, in the thousands or tens of thousands during the Spring Festival time. Is there a correlation of that with the areas with most infected people in California? Speaking of that, how about in the huge Hispanic areas of LA or the Bay Area? They live closer together than the gringos for the most part due to being packed many more to a house. Is there much of the Kung Flu in the barrio-burbs? I kinda doubt it, because they don't go back and forth to China. And, no, they don't need no steeenking lock-downs, and I respect them very much for that.

    You come on here often, berate the commenters, and tell us about your wonderful mathematical modeling. Then you pull some theories out of your ass about the competency of California bureaucrats? Puhleeze!

    Chill, brother. The Man paying for the Bandwidth gets to troll who he wants to, and recent posts have been, measured.

    • Agree: Achmed E. Newman
  70. @Ron Unz

    I share your pessimism, but maybe there is reason to be hopeful. I’m in Washington state, and people are sick and dying in my neighborhood, but there has been a very noticeable change in behavior over the last week.
     
    Sure, as far as I can tell things are going pretty well in California, especially in the Silicon Valley area that I can best judge. We led the country into lock-downs almost two weeks ago, and people seem to be complying well enough that I'd hope the spread of the virus has been largely halted.

    So far CA has had 121 deaths which suggests there were around 12K infections three weeks ago. But with the early total lock-down, I'd hope the current figure is still less than 40K. That's low enough that we probably won't crash the local health system. I'm sure infections will still continue to grow and Californians will die, but the UWash estimate of 6K California deaths seems pretty plausible, perhaps even a little pessimistic.

    A couple of days ago, the papers reported some local health officials projecting 2K deaths in my own Santa Clara county, but I think that's far too high. We've had 25 deaths so far, which implies 2500 infections three weeks ago. But we also had the earliest lock-down, so I'd hope we're around 5K infections now, and perhaps may escape with just a few hundred total deaths. Considering that last month we were the American epicenter of the disease, I'm feeling pretty good about things.

    Having competent people in charge really makes all the difference during a deadly epidemic.

    Ron, I’m sure you’re still waiting impatiently for iSteve to wake up so you can read my replies, haha, but I do want to apologize for the “bullcrap” bit. I don’t agree with you, but that was too far, when writing to the guy that makes this site available for all.

    Anyway, yes, I don’t agree on the general worry about this Kung Flu. I really would like to make a bet with you on it*, but I also don’t agree that we will really know who’s right in just a month or two. By the end of this year, I want to look at the numbers of Americans who’ve died (along with demographic information). We can see how many and which people died over and above the normal amount in a calendar year. A 2-year basis would be even better.

    BTW, if anyone tells me that if I’m so sure of myself, go bet on the stock market shooting back up, no thanks. It was overvalued and due for a big downturn anyway. I’m not saying this in a gloating manner at all, but if it went down another 50%, that would neither surprise nor concern me. (It probably won’t with the FED planning on propping it back up, in a Weekend at Bernies. manner.)

    .

    PS: Oh, he just woke up while I was writing that! I also apologize for the wording of that last sentence of that previous reply to you.. As Buzz says, there ARE a lot of assholes on the internet. Join the party, pal! ;-}

    .

    * I am trying to keep a certain level of anonymity, so I’m making that not easily possible myself.

  71. Also, about 2 hours ago, I talked to a doctor friend. He is a specialist, so he doesn’t know that much specifically about the Kung Flu. He does work at a hospital 6 days a week, sometimes 7, so he sees what’s going on there at least.

    However, he told me that he had a conversation with an ID Doc (I had to ask too, but that’s an Infectious Disease doctor). That guy told the group basically that “hey, everyone’s gonna get this thing. Do you know anyone who’s never had a cold?” Now, that’s not to imply it’s just like a cold, of course. My doctor friend also things this deal has been overblown, but not as much as I do.

    • Replies: @Anonymous

    However, he told me that he had a conversation with an ID Doc (I had to ask too, but that’s an Infectious Disease doctor). That guy told the group basically that “hey, everyone’s gonna get this thing. Do you know anyone who’s never had a cold?”
     
    What point was he trying to make?
  72. @Tor597
    Unz, what do you make of other hotspots emerging such as LA, Chicago, New Orleans.

    Any predictions?

    So you don't think LA will become another NY?

    Unz, what do you make of other hotspots emerging such as LA, Chicago, New Orleans.

    Any predictions?

    So you don’t think LA will become another NY?

    Well, I haven’t been following LA as closely as my own Santa Clara county, but it only has 32 deaths so far, suggesting 32K infections three weeks ago. It went into lock-down a day or two after my own area, so I’d hope the spread of the infection was drastically reduced at that point. Steve can certainly provide a better picture of whether LA people are complying or not. I’d hope it doesn’t do too much worse than the rest of CA.

    Meanwhile, the situation in many of those places around the US seems awful, and I’d expect some of them to more or less follow the NY trajectory, with absolutely massive fatalities.

    • Replies: @Inquiring Mind
    I'm not saying we won't get our hair mussed. But no more than 10-20 million people killed -- depending on the breaks.

    https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=HgyjlqhiTV8
    , @ArchangelGabriel
    32 deaths => 32k infected 3 weeks ago? That's inconsistent with your prior comments on this thread in which you use a factor of 100. So unless you've got infection and death rate data on LA that are very different from other regions, I assume you mean 3.2k. If you do have such data, could you please provide a reference?
    , @donut
    Hey Ron , you have a degree in Physics right ? Is it true that every particle has it's charge , mass , and place and function ? Is mankind exempt from the fundamental laws of nature ? I suspect that we are not . What do you say ?
  73. Anonymous[270] • Disclaimer says:

    What lockdown? Here in the WI, there is probably only 2-3X less car and people traffic, nobody (3. The effectiveness of lockdown decreases exponentially with its numbers. If it’s only 50%, it barely makes any dent in the spread of infection…

  74. Australia’s numbers (its summer down there):

    3984 infections.
    14 deaths.
    241 “recovered”.

    First case was January 25. Quite a few Chinese in Australia. Perhaps the heat of the summer might help? Hope so. Above info was from wikipedia page on coronovirus in Australia 2020 page.

  75. @Anon
    OT

    The New York Times, in its efforts to discredit Trump with some oppo research, seems accidentally to have unearthed some exculpatory evidence with FOIA requests. But you have to read carefully, all the way to the end to figure it out.

    The U.S. Tried to Build a New Fleet of Ventilators. The Mission Failed.
    As the coronavirus spreads, the collapse of the project helps explain America’s acute shortage.
    https://www.nytimes.com/2020/03/29/business/coronavirus-us-ventilator-shortage.html?action=click&module=Spotlight&pgtype=Homepage

    Note that the title is "The U.S. Tried to Build ...," not "The Trump Administration Tried to Build ...."

    The word "Obama" does not appear once in the article (only the project dates, 2007-2014. The word "Fauci" appears once at the end in a way that implies he was not involved.

    Three bylined reporters and one contributing reporter. This smells like a typical NYT sting operation. That is a lot of resources to pour at an article. They seem like real reporters and not the younger SJW crowd, which is probably where the editors went wrong:

    "Use all the money you need. We want the full story on why the ventilator situation is so fucked up." Ten days later. "Boss, we got the goods. Between 2007-2014 the U.S. had a project that would have delivered tens of thousands of $3,000 ventilators that wouldn't even need fully skilled respiratory therapists to operate, but the adminstration fucked up and let the project stall after working prototypes had been delivered." "Wonderful, you really earned your ... wait, 2007-2014?? Uh ..." "We're good to go boss, right? Front page?" "... uh ... yeah ... sure ... make sure I get it for a final ... uh, 'polish'."

    Thirteen years ago, a group of U.S. public health officials came up with a plan to address what they regarded as one of the medical system’s crucial vulnerabilities: a shortage of ventilators....

    The project — code-named Aura — came in the wake of a parade of near-miss pandemics: SARS, MERS, bird flu and swine flu....

    In its first year in operation, the research agency considered how to expand the number of ventilators. It estimated that an additional 70,000 machines would be required in a moderate influenza pandemic.

    The ventilators in the national stockpile were not ideal. In addition to being big and expensive, they required a lot of training to use. The research agency convened a panel of experts in November 2007 to devise a set of requirements for a new generation of mobile, easy-to-use ventilators....

    In 2011, Newport shipped three working prototypes from the company’s California plant to Washington for federal officials to review.

    Dr. Frieden, who ran the C.D.C. at the time, got a demonstration in a small conference room attached to his office. “I got all excited,” he said. “It was a multiyear effort that had resulted in something that was going to be really useful.”
     
    Then a clusterfuck happened where, during the Obama administration, the company contracted to build the thing was acquired and then the Big Health acquirer decided the profit margin was too low and the Obama administration let them out of the contract that had produced working cheap ventilators that the FDA had signed off on.

    profit margin was too low and the Obama administration let them out of the contract that had produced working cheap ventilators that the FDA had signed off on.

    Since U.S. Government paid for it, the design is public. Why didn’t someone else produce these $3000 machines and make a profit when the prevailing price is $20,000? The design is easy enough that someone in China/Taiwan/S. Korea/Japan/India etc., could have done this too; they all had major outbreaks of SARS/MERS/H1N1 etc., The story appears unconvincing.

  76. @Ron Unz
    Actually, I just left a couple of comments on the UWash numbers, which seem pretty implausible to me:

    Well, they have some fancy Javascript charting system, but I’m *extremely* skeptical about their numbers.

    The California totals seems reasonably plausible given that our state led the nation into lockdown, and that may have largely stopped the spread of the virus. But there’s a gigantic outbreak in New York, and apparently large new ones in various other parts of the East and the Midwest.

    Since we have well over 2,000 deaths, we probably have around 2M or so infected, and much of the country isn’t under lockdown. So I just don’t see why it wouldn’t continue to spread close to exponentially.

    Anyway, just keep an eye on New York. I strongly suspect that within another week or so, the daily deaths there will demonstrate that the optimistic UWash projections make absolutely no sense.
     
    https://www.unz.com/isteve/the-latest/#comment-3802882

    Actually, I think it’s pretty easy to see that the UWash projections for New York don’t make any sense…

    NY has already had almost 900 deaths, so assuming 1%, that implies around 90K infections three weeks ago. The doubling-period was probably 3-6 days before the lockdown, and its hard to say how effective its been in such a dense environment. But I’d expect infections are now well over 1M, and they’re probably continuing to increase, though at a much slower rate.

    1M infections implies 10K deaths in a fully-functioning heath system. But it also generates perhaps 200K hospitalizations, almost certainly enough to crash the local health system. Once the health system crashes, we’re looking at 50K deaths. So I think something like 50K deaths in NY is already “baked into the cake” even if new infections went to zero tomorrow.

    Meanwhile, the UWash people predict *total* NY deaths at 10K to late summer. How does this make any sense?

    Maybe that French miracle drug will cure everyone. Maybe the Venusians will land on earth and save the day. But otherwise I just don’t see how the UWash numbers are plausible.
     
    https://www.unz.com/isteve/the-latest/#comment-3802932

    Italian deaths declined a second day, 919 to 886 to 756. There previously was a short decline like this, so they certainly could go back up. But exponential growth seems over.

    Care to revise your 2000-4000 daily deaths in NY prediction yet?

  77. Anon[216] • Disclaimer says:

    What I suspect is happening in the course of a pandemic is a fundamental rise and decrease in the numbers of people with high viral loads.

    You have certain people who will build high viral loads, namely those with pre-existing medical conditions or those who have weak immune systems. Let’s call them A.

    Then you have people who are fundamentally healthier, but who acquire medium viral loads from all the As in a population. Let’s call them Bs. But these Bs will survive. Their immune systems are strong enough to fight the virus off.

    Then you have people who are also healthy, but they have light viral loads acquired from the Bs in a population, or they were lucky enough to have only very brief contact with an A, or they have super-powerful immune systems. Let’s call them C. Cs might not even have symptons, and they do not carry enough of a viral load to infect other people, although As and Bs do.

    In a pandemic, a significant number of As are created quickly, as the most vulnerable acquire large viral loads. These As then spread their viral loads around and create other As, a lot of Bs, and some Cs in a population. But over time, most As either die or recover. This means as the pandemic ages, people with the largest viral loads begin to vanish. This leaves behind a lot of Bs and Cs. With more time, Bs begin to recover, and the viral load they pass on to the rest of the population will be mostly C-level. At this point, the pandemic begins to peter out when most of the Bs recover and are no longer infectious, and the viral load from the Cs is not high enough to infect other people. But the pandemic can only fade after all the As are removed from the population and can no longer be infectious. It is the As who are the real super-spreaders inside a pandemic because of the size of their viral loads.

    People may not like my conclusions, but letting the As die quickly is the only way to stop a pandemic quickly.

  78. @Achmed E. Newman

    Having competent people in charge really makes all the difference during a deadly epidemic.
     
    Oh, bullcrap. Other than in the middle of San Fran. or the small downtown L.A., Californians have still got lots of room to live. Even though it is TWICE as crowded a state on the whole as it was sometime in the 1970s, most people still live in detached houses or sprawled-out apartment complexes. Compare this to NY City, where people live packed in like sardines, and almost as in China.

    Speaking of China, perhaps the disease has spread most quickly where the most Chinese people have come home and gone back, in the thousands or tens of thousands during the Spring Festival time. Is there a correlation of that with the areas with most infected people in California? Speaking of that, how about in the huge Hispanic areas of LA or the Bay Area? They live closer together than the gringos for the most part due to being packed many more to a house. Is there much of the Kung Flu in the barrio-burbs? I kinda doubt it, because they don't go back and forth to China. And, no, they don't need no steeenking lock-downs, and I respect them very much for that.

    You come on here often, berate the commenters, and tell us about your wonderful mathematical modeling. Then you pull some theories out of your ass about the competency of California bureaucrats? Puhleeze!

    Indeed, my opinionated friend, indeed. And what about the demo in NYC? Just the fact the MFM ain’t said a word about the Asian invasion of NYC tells me it is coming out of Columbus Park.

  79. @Ron Unz

    I share your pessimism, but maybe there is reason to be hopeful. I’m in Washington state, and people are sick and dying in my neighborhood, but there has been a very noticeable change in behavior over the last week.
     
    Sure, as far as I can tell things are going pretty well in California, especially in the Silicon Valley area that I can best judge. We led the country into lock-downs almost two weeks ago, and people seem to be complying well enough that I'd hope the spread of the virus has been largely halted.

    So far CA has had 121 deaths which suggests there were around 12K infections three weeks ago. But with the early total lock-down, I'd hope the current figure is still less than 40K. That's low enough that we probably won't crash the local health system. I'm sure infections will still continue to grow and Californians will die, but the UWash estimate of 6K California deaths seems pretty plausible, perhaps even a little pessimistic.

    A couple of days ago, the papers reported some local health officials projecting 2K deaths in my own Santa Clara county, but I think that's far too high. We've had 25 deaths so far, which implies 2500 infections three weeks ago. But we also had the earliest lock-down, so I'd hope we're around 5K infections now, and perhaps may escape with just a few hundred total deaths. Considering that last month we were the American epicenter of the disease, I'm feeling pretty good about things.

    Having competent people in charge really makes all the difference during a deadly epidemic.

    The Knight Who Says “Nerd”?

    “Sure, as far I can tell things are going pretty well in California, especially in the Silicon valley area that I can best judge.”

    While (as Steve Sailer could likely attest – at considerable length) many of the “founders” of Silicon Valley are getting long in the tooth (if not dead), it seems likely that many of the brainy sorts working there will do relatively well given that they are relatively young (and possibly reasonably cautious) with relatively few comorbidities*. They might have, in other words, Nerd Immunity.

    * See outdated 1993 Jurassic Park: “Nedry” (a “nerdy” Wayne Knight) was obese and “Arnold” (Samuel Jackson) appeared to be a chain-smoker.

  80. @anonguy
    Also as a PSA:

    Fauci, the six president beltway insider as much personally responsible for current US fiasco struggling to reposition himself, reminded us yesterday that, as I pointed out.

    THERE CURRENTLY IS NO EVIDENCE THAT ONE GAINS IMMUNITY TO CORONAVIRUS

    He cheerfully and optimistically opined that he would bet anything that there would be, although whether it would be one month or permanent, he didn't specify, so that was kind of weaselly, most laymen assume immunity means 100% and forever, whereas it means something else to med researchers.

    One thing I'll credit the guy is he won't tell a flat out lie and he's actually not doing the fail by omission or failure to be forthright.

    He's been pretty good about blurting out the truth, unlike the past thirty years, who ever heard of the guy, but obviously central to US public health stuff and all the games there.

    I’d also note that the scattered, anecdotal, and quite possibly outlier, edge cases, that suggest reinfection may be an issue could also be relapses, it is unclear which would explain some of the cases.

    So it could be true that one gains immunity but still be subject to relapses.

    And to Fauci, immunity can mean anywhere between partial and short term on a spectrum to full and forever, unlike american who thinks of it as full and forever or nothing.

    I’m hoping he clarifies that point, I’m guessing that he will have followup questions a lot.

    • Replies: @Anonymous
    In terms of surface antigen, SARS and COVID-19 are 96% identical. We know that SARS immunity, judged by antibody titers, lasted at least 2 years. There is absolutely no reason COVID-19 is going to be different.

    https://www.ncbi.nlm.nih.gov/pmc/articles/PMC2851497/

    Among 176 patients who had had severe acute respiratory syndrome (SARS), SARS-specific antibodies were maintained for an average of 2 years, and significant reduction of immunoglobulin G–positive percentage and titers occurred in the third year. Thus, SARS patients might be susceptible to reinfection >3 years after initial exposure.
     
  81. Dr. Fauci’s predictions ( U.S. May Reach 200,000 Deaths ) seem to be in general agreement with this report.

    https://www.bloomberg.com/news/articles/2020-03-28/nyc-quarantine-debated-italy-deaths-pass-10-000-virus-update

  82. @YetAnotherAnon
    Steve, did you pick up on the comment about Belgium throwing away six million (!) masks because they were past the use date, but not replacing them?

    https://www.lemonde.fr/international/article/2020/03/25/la-belgique-toujours-en-manque-de-masques-possedait-un-stock-important-mais-l-a-detruit_6034437_3210.html

    I noticed the pic of the Belgian Health Minister - if she's not got a BMI of 40 (making her vulnerable to coronachan at any age) she must be very close.

    https://img.lemde.fr/2020/03/20/0/0/5019/3346/688/0/60/0/d7889cc_5416952-01-06.jpg

    I noticed the pic of the Belgian Health Minister – if she’s not got a BMI of 40

    That’s a lot of waffles and sprouts!

    How else would her figure walloon to such a magnitude? I got a phlegmish reaction myself just looking at her. Excuse me, I have to run to the waterloo…

    Pardon the sound of flushing. (Oops. That’s in the Netherlands.)

    • LOL: reactionry
    • Replies: @reactionry
    [disclosure: "Flushing Meadows" is the only term which immediately popped into my head - most of the following was cribbed from Google]

    Good ones! But don't forget cross-dressers afflicted with Covid 19- related diarrhea in Flushing, Queens.
    https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Flushing,_Queens

    Which should not be confused with Flushing Meadows-Corona Park(!).
    https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Flushing_Meadows%E2%80%93Corona_Park

    OT
    Flushing Meadows might make some dwell on Rachel Maddow who prompted a Google Search some time ago (related somehow to someone commenting on the Boeing 737 stuff). Maddow is surprisingly NOT a cognate of "meadow" but instead a cognate of Medved[ev] (as in a former Russian President) which means "honey eater" which is a classic "taboo word" for "bear." (Reg Caesar is doubtless aware of that) Sadly, Rachel did not appear to be related to the guy who wrote "Up Out of Zoar" (spoiler alert - it's a post-apocalyptic story of a deplorable, a father, a daughter and incest) published (one of the few short stories which I read during many years of subscribing) many years ago in Playboy magazine.
    Also see the related "Mede" (as in the classic "One man's Mede is another man's Persian") which means "sweet." The search led to Tocharian A and Tocharian B, though not to Linear A and Linear Honey B.
    Is "Honey Mead" redundant?
    Given your (R.C.) residence in Minnesota, it's very likely that you'v seen the road sign for the Zoar church en route to the North Shore.

    , @Anonymous
    If she’s a normal 5’4 to 5’7 N European woman she’s past 350 going up to 400 pounds.
  83. @AnotherDad

    • You are your safest sex partner. Masturbation will not spread COVID-19, especially if you
    wash your hands (and any sex toys) with soap and water for at least 20 seconds before
    and after sex.
    • The next safest partner is someone you live with. Having close contact — including sex
    — with only a small circle of people helps prevent spreading COVID-19. Have sex only
    with consenting partners.

    • You should avoid close contact — including sex — with anyone outside your household.
    If you do have sex with others, have as few partners as possible.
     
    Wa, wa, wa ... it's just such a terrible burden to limit yourself to one partner. How can we ask people to do it? (I guessing this is in there for the queers.) Celibacy? LOL.

    Nothing--not even pandemic--should stop the left's most important value after ramming "diversity" down our throats--i.e. promiscuity and trashing the traditional family.

    Nothing–not even pandemic–should stop the left’s most important value after ramming “diversity” down our throats…

    Actually, they prefer the other end of the alimentary canal.

  84. @YetAnotherAnon
    Steve, did you pick up on the comment about Belgium throwing away six million (!) masks because they were past the use date, but not replacing them?

    https://www.lemonde.fr/international/article/2020/03/25/la-belgique-toujours-en-manque-de-masques-possedait-un-stock-important-mais-l-a-detruit_6034437_3210.html

    I noticed the pic of the Belgian Health Minister - if she's not got a BMI of 40 (making her vulnerable to coronachan at any age) she must be very close.

    https://img.lemde.fr/2020/03/20/0/0/5019/3346/688/0/60/0/d7889cc_5416952-01-06.jpg

    One absurdity of the modern era is that someone with such a controllable health condition of choice is the national health minister.

    Oh well, I’m guessing we used to have surgeon generals who smoke, every era has its foibles, we are all humans.

    I gotta say our current surgeon general is a radiantly healthy looking dude, good example there, so good on him for that.

    Isn’t Belgium super near the top on obesity rates?

    • Replies: @Anon
    Obesity is nearly as heritable as height.
  85. @Bill Jones
    According to the CDC there have been about 24,000 deaths from regular flu this flu season.

    https://www.cdc.gov/flu/weekly/index.htm

    According to the CDC there have been 1,668 deaths from the China virus.

    https://www.cdc.gov/coronavirus/2019-ncov/cases-updates/cases-in-us.html

    Stay cowering in place Steve.

    Infectious diseases are give place names (such Lyme Disease after the town of Old Lyme, Connecticut) except in response to political exigencies.

    The Plague of Justinian, however, was named after a political leader/ruler.

    I propose that this illness, at least for referring to he here in iSteve, be named The Plague of Xi Jinping.

    • LOL: YetAnotherAnon
    • Replies: @anon
    I propose that this illness, at least for referring to he here in iSteve, be named The Plague of Xi Jinping.

    Tut tut! I pooh-pooh this notion! Too absurd!

    https://images.tmz.com/2017/07/18/0718-chinese-president-xi-jinping-winnie-getty-everett-3.jpg
  86. @Ron Unz

    I share your pessimism, but maybe there is reason to be hopeful. I’m in Washington state, and people are sick and dying in my neighborhood, but there has been a very noticeable change in behavior over the last week.
     
    Sure, as far as I can tell things are going pretty well in California, especially in the Silicon Valley area that I can best judge. We led the country into lock-downs almost two weeks ago, and people seem to be complying well enough that I'd hope the spread of the virus has been largely halted.

    So far CA has had 121 deaths which suggests there were around 12K infections three weeks ago. But with the early total lock-down, I'd hope the current figure is still less than 40K. That's low enough that we probably won't crash the local health system. I'm sure infections will still continue to grow and Californians will die, but the UWash estimate of 6K California deaths seems pretty plausible, perhaps even a little pessimistic.

    A couple of days ago, the papers reported some local health officials projecting 2K deaths in my own Santa Clara county, but I think that's far too high. We've had 25 deaths so far, which implies 2500 infections three weeks ago. But we also had the earliest lock-down, so I'd hope we're around 5K infections now, and perhaps may escape with just a few hundred total deaths. Considering that last month we were the American epicenter of the disease, I'm feeling pretty good about things.

    Having competent people in charge really makes all the difference during a deadly epidemic.

    As I’ve lived in Santa Clara County for 40 years, I’d add that it helps that most everyone who lives here (whether in tech or a service industry) is hard working and conscientious. If you’re not you won’t be able to afford to live here. Also we have few high rise apartments and have plenty of space to go outside and still avoid getting within 6 feet of other people. These conditions do not hold in many other areas of the country.

    • Agree: Ron Unz
  87. @RichardTaylor
    It says the peak number of deaths per day will happen around April 15th.

    Since deaths per day lags behind infections, why couldn't the lockdown be lifted no later than mid-April? Deaths may be up to two weeks behind infections.

    Elderly Uncle Joe should be safe at that point, and he can go back to being a boomer race-traitor.

    https://covid19.healthdata.org/projections

    It says the peak number of deaths per day will happen around April 15th.

    Since deaths per day lags behind infections, why couldn’t the lockdown be lifted no later than mid-April? Deaths may be up to two weeks behind infections.

    When the lockdown is lifted, the number of cases will once again start doubling every four days unless there are preventative measures of some kind. If the number of cases is small, then contact tracing and testing will be enough to prevent the renewed outbreak from getting out of control. In mid-April there will still be a lot of cases, and a limited testing capacity. To bring the number of cases down to a controllable level, the lockdown must last longer – probably until June.

  88. Ron and Steve —

    You seem to believe the media, which are proven liars and whores. Indeed most of the media is made up of professional whores, pretty women hired on the basis of having sex with powerful men like their bosses, and sleeping with sources. The media is constitutionally unable to tell the truth.

    Italy is a shambolic pretend country. Doctors predictably are just writing Kung Flu for cause of death of people with cancer, etc. in their 80s. Same with Spain — its a mess. France had something like 100,000 elderly die in a HEAT WAVE a few years back.

    Japan has had very few fatalities. Same with the Diamond Princess, or LA. Same with Orange County.

    Orange County has a very sizeable Chinese presence, and lots of travel back and forth to China during the virus outbreak. Where are all the deaths, and where are all the deaths of the homeless in Orange County and LA County.

    Almost without a doubt, the virus was here in LA and Orange counties in January. Why have we not seen massive deaths?

    • Replies: @Glt
    First confirmed OC case was 1/26
    https://abc7.com/5879603/
  89. @Anonymous
    What I don't undernstand is how to avoid the epidemic to return again, after the end of the confinement measures. I think it's absurd imagine that the confinement will not last so long, only few months.

    It is going to be like a predator prey problem.

    With openings/closings/partial measures. Probably a lot of experimentation.

    A lot of technology and alternate social practices are going to develop and a lot of people aren’t going to want to go back to the old ways.

    E.g., the longer public schools shut down, the less likely they are to be restored exactly as they existed before.

    A lot of people are going to like having their kids served remotely by online learning and leave behind the rest of the rigamarole, as well as health risks.

    As for the recreational/social/social welfare needs of kids that schools have provided, separation of concerns probably makes the solution better.

    We still are in this 19th century model of education, round them up in classroom.

    [MORE]

    What is interesting about the shutdown is finding out what stuff really is essential, not larping.

    For instance, both carriers in Pac Fleet are out of service. This is of course an unthinkable in US defense posture, all that dangerous world yada we’ve been hearing since end of Cold War.

    We never got a big enough drawdown then, and a lot of boondoggles have gone on for decades now.

    So what cataclysmic thing happens now? China makes their big move or something?

    No, of course not. Nothing is going to happen, at least non-incrementally.

    Same way with school shutdowns. There was a lot of wailing about having to keep them open to deliver all the social welfare stuff.

    But we are going to find out the kids are going to be fine, and the less they get of all that ADHD medicine abuse, the better off they will be running around their yards, etc, instead of drugged and confined in a room.

    And they aren’t going to be stupid. Rote knowledge poured into brains is a historical artifact in education. Information superconductivity renders that useless. Just have good analytic/critical judgment to work with the information available is what is the primary skill, not a monopoly on skill/info, which is a necessity in a society with a lot of impedance for information transmission.

    So with all these shutdowns, and a lot of it coming from staff reluctance to go to work, we are going to be getting on fine without them.

    Lot of other things like that. Like going to work, a lot of people are figuring out they aren’t all that keen on the concept.

    As I keep yammering on, and esp. for those who keep doing all this green eyeshade calculating and comparisons, novel diseases cause societal/institutional distress way, way, like exponentially, there is that word again, out of proportion to the raw amount of death/biological impact from normalized/customary/understood and managed diseases or conditions like auto deaths.

    This is well known, well studied, well chronicled and analyzed stuff, not my idea/opinion. It is as predictable, IMO at least, as all the modeling of the virus’ biological spread.

    Interesting times. So far, there is no firm bottom identifiable on the total impact of this.

  90. @Ron Unz

    Unz, what do you make of other hotspots emerging such as LA, Chicago, New Orleans.

    Any predictions?

    So you don’t think LA will become another NY?
     
    Well, I haven't been following LA as closely as my own Santa Clara county, but it only has 32 deaths so far, suggesting 32K infections three weeks ago. It went into lock-down a day or two after my own area, so I'd hope the spread of the infection was drastically reduced at that point. Steve can certainly provide a better picture of whether LA people are complying or not. I'd hope it doesn't do too much worse than the rest of CA.

    Meanwhile, the situation in many of those places around the US seems awful, and I'd expect some of them to more or less follow the NY trajectory, with absolutely massive fatalities.

    I’m not saying we won’t get our hair mussed. But no more than 10-20 million people killed — depending on the breaks.

  91. anonymous[700] • Disclaimer says:

  92. @YetAnotherAnon
    Does anyone know where we can see graphs of daily deaths rather than daily infections, as the latter depend so much on the amount of testing countries are doing?

    There are some discrepancies even with deaths (afaik the UK were only reporting people who died in hospital as CV deaths) but deaths are the bottom line and harder to hide/ignore.

    The Johns Hopkins site is great, but the graphs they do for cases don't seem to be available for deaths.

    https://coronavirus.jhu.edu/map.html

    These visualizations default to confirmed cases, but you can change that to deaths.
    https://91-divoc.com/pages/covid-visualization/
    You can look at the daily changes by either eyeballing the graphs or comparing the numbers in the popups you get when hovering over the data points.

    Another good option is new cases per day.

    • Thanks: YetAnotherAnon
  93. @Ron Unz

    Unz, what do you make of other hotspots emerging such as LA, Chicago, New Orleans.

    Any predictions?

    So you don’t think LA will become another NY?
     
    Well, I haven't been following LA as closely as my own Santa Clara county, but it only has 32 deaths so far, suggesting 32K infections three weeks ago. It went into lock-down a day or two after my own area, so I'd hope the spread of the infection was drastically reduced at that point. Steve can certainly provide a better picture of whether LA people are complying or not. I'd hope it doesn't do too much worse than the rest of CA.

    Meanwhile, the situation in many of those places around the US seems awful, and I'd expect some of them to more or less follow the NY trajectory, with absolutely massive fatalities.

    32 deaths => 32k infected 3 weeks ago? That’s inconsistent with your prior comments on this thread in which you use a factor of 100. So unless you’ve got infection and death rate data on LA that are very different from other regions, I assume you mean 3.2k. If you do have such data, could you please provide a reference?

    • Agree: Ron Unz
  94. [sorry about the length of the following – clicking on “more” in two locations, apparently voiding both]

    OT

    A very thin silver lining: Turned on the tube (OK – there’s no CRT) and within a few seconds genocidal totalitarian monster Governor Cuomo (who might be the Democrat nominee for Prez) misused the word “acutely” as in “acutely ill.” “Very” or “severely” or other words would have been better. DJT might have been castigated for this. I don’t think we have much information on the rapidity of onset of severe illness in those requiring hospitalization.

    He also said ” But, New York is going to have what it needs and no one is going to attack New York unfairly and no one is going to deprive New York of what it needs.” (already on the web “five minutes” ago – https://www.theguardian.com/world/live/2020/mar/29/coronavirus-us-live-new-york-cases-quarantine-news-updates-trump)
    Yep – message to Flyover Country: Gimme all your PPE and ventilators- it’s an offer you can’t refuse. He is absolutely totalitarian and absolutely corrupt.

    The Bad News: Governor Cuomo is looking “Presidential” in his broadcasts and comes across as somewhat more intelligent than President DJT. He gave what seemed to a reasonably intelligent, (though rambling – corrected “increase” to “rate of increase”) take on the uncertainty regarding the validity of various models of projection. “Conspiracy theorists” probably got some jollies with his mention of a model from McKinsey Advisors. The governor’s answers to questions of the form “Why didn’t you do this or that sooner” were along the lines of “We did this or that sooner than others.” That mirrors some of the answers given by the President and his defenders.

    In general, critics of the President and defenders of the Governor and his ilk are allowing the latter expressions of uncertainty while demanding “a clear plan of action” and “hope” from the President. As noted by others DJT is being criticized for both under reacting and over reacting (causing “panic”). Comments by Pelosi (third in line for Prez?!?) have been absolutely malicious and at least arguably mostly false.

    Enough of these mostly unedited comments on the fly for now.

    • Replies: @Joe Stalin
    "Yep – message to Flyover Country: Gimme all your PPE and ventilators- it’s an offer you can’t refuse. He is absolutely totalitarian and absolutely corrupt."

    I would have LMAO had POTUS implemented a lock down of NY with Bradley IFVs: Red America giving Blue America the finger by blocking their tollways.

    https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=xXzaUXIUkfA
  95. @As
    What are the demographics of the dead in the US?

    Are they all old, sick people?

    Are we wrecking the economy for the benefit of old sick people?

    I keep hearing that Covid 19 is much deadlier than the flu. Again for whom? Certainly not for the young and healthy or for babies. Are they talking about old sick people?

    For young people, the cure—the economic shutdown—is worse than the disease.

    There is a lot they’re not telling us. They seem to want to maximize general panic. This is why I haven’t done any panic selling of stocks. Deaths of unhealthy 80-year-olds is a tragedy for the families, no question, but I can’t see it being a huge long-term economic hit, unlike trillions of bad loans, or an infrastructure-destroying war. Short-term, it is a screwover of young people.

    • Replies: @Reg Cæsar

    Short-term, it is a screwover of young people.
     
    American youth have been disrespecting their elders for a century or more now. The elders get their revenge by tipping the scales in their favor.

    The kids may have the megaphone, but the old folks have the cash register.

    , @gate666
    /why do you guys oppose abortion?
  96. @YetAnotherAnon
    Steve, did you pick up on the comment about Belgium throwing away six million (!) masks because they were past the use date, but not replacing them?

    https://www.lemonde.fr/international/article/2020/03/25/la-belgique-toujours-en-manque-de-masques-possedait-un-stock-important-mais-l-a-detruit_6034437_3210.html

    I noticed the pic of the Belgian Health Minister - if she's not got a BMI of 40 (making her vulnerable to coronachan at any age) she must be very close.

    https://img.lemde.fr/2020/03/20/0/0/5019/3346/688/0/60/0/d7889cc_5416952-01-06.jpg

    “Help me, Covid van Wuhani. You are my only chance against the bureaucracy!”

    Lors d’un épisode de ce feuilleton, on a découvert qu’une commande effectuée en Turquie avait échoué en raison d’une fraude ; à une autre occasion des masques arrivés de Chine, et promis aux soignants, se sont révélés d’une qualité insuffisante.

    – Ordered masks from Turkey: Turned out they got scammed
    – Ordered masks from China: Turned out that quality was too low

    Meanwhile, Taleb is not wrong:

    [MORE]

    ‘Planes will fly with new owners’: Black Swan author Taleb urges UK to let Branson’s airline go bust

    The risk analyst has given short shrift to the suggestion of bailouts for airlines, saying that the industry was hugely influential in preventing governments from calling a halt to flights from China as the outbreak spread in the Asian country.

    However, the author reserved his most scathing analysis for Branson, whom he dubbed a “tax refugee” who “walks around virtue-faking with [the] TED [and] Davos crowd.”

    “He lives in the British Virgin Islands and since the UK has no worldwide taxation, [he] pays no taxes. Yets wants the UK taxpayer’s backstop,” Taleb said, in a blistering tweet.

    “Let him go bust. Planes will fly with new owners!”

    Virgin Atlantic has been particularly badly hit by the Covid-19 crisis as it does not have the cash reserves of some of its larger competitors. It reportedly approached the UK government and the Rothschild investment bank, who are said to be handling negotiations, for a package worth hundreds of millions of pounds in loans and guarantees.

    I think we can write off “Virgin Galactic” (more like “Suborbital Virgin”, right?)

    In other news, unis outing themselves as the exploitative pissing on the hopeful hopeless:

    From layoffs to COVID DANCE-OFFs, richest US universities drag their heels on virus response

    With their school closed due to the ongoing Covid-19 pandemic, students at New York University’s Tisch School of the Arts got in touch with college officials to ask for their tuition back. Given that a year’s tuition at the art school costs upwards of $60,000 [how much?!], they were anxious to get the money returned.

    Dean Allyson Green emailed the students back last week, denying their request. Attached to the email was a bizarre video of Green performing a lip-sync dance to REM’s classic ‘Losing My Religion,’ along with a line encouraging students to “dance along” with her.

    With a $40 billion endowment, Harvard University is the nation’s richest school. However, that didn’t stop Harvard from moving to lay off its contracted dining workers last week. Only after a pressure campaign from labor law students did the university relent. Paying these workers a living wage for four weeks’ leave would cost Harvard approximately 0.001 percent of its endowment.

    And all of this from a university whose business department once encouraged employers to “carefully consider all options for coping with a downturn before letting workers go.”

    The FDA also needs its dose of encapsulated RNA:

    The FDA Continues to Actively Undermine America’s Response

  97. @Bitfu
    This is starting to remind me of a book by Leon Festinger, 'When Prophecy Fails'.

    This book gave an inside account of belief persistence in members of a UFO doomsday cult, and documented the increased proselytization they exhibited after the leader's "end of the world" prophecy failed to come true. The prediction of the Earth's destruction, supposedly sent by aliens to the leader of the group, became a disconfirmed expectancy that caused dissonance between the cognitions, "the world is going to end" and "the world did not end." Although some members abandoned the group when the prophecy failed, most of the members lessened their dissonance by accepting a new belief, that the planet was spared because of the faith of the group.
     
    I'm not being cynical, either. Two weeks ago, we were told that 500k - 2 million US deaths were imminent. Now, it's maybe 80k with over 90% being elderly ot with pre-existing conditions. This is no end-of-world pandemic. And for the love of God--it's not 'our WWII'. [STFU] It's a once in a decade flu. Terrible for sure, but nothing close to what we were told.

    In the meantime, civil freedoms are being ripped away as we paved the way for a new style of governance called the 'Emergency State'. We don't even bother increasing the base number to our debt, now we just subtly jack up that weird, little exponential number at the top. And many of our livelihoods are getting torched.

    Odder still, the majority of people still support the response. Social Media companies even go out of their way to nuke dissenting facts--'out of a concern for the welfare of others'.

    But maybe there's a silver lining --once it becomes apparent that the response to COVID-19 was a shocking over-reaction, every journo, social media 'influencer', and government bureaucrat will be ridiculed and mocked mercilessly for willful buffoonery.

    Mark these words, BlueChecks: A tsunami of seething contempt is headed your way.

    But maybe there’s a silver lining –once it becomes apparent that the response to COVID-19 was a shocking over-reaction

    But you don’t have data on the counterfactual “done nothing” scenario.

    That’s the whole problem.

    • Replies: @Kaz
    Africa, many parts of Asia, I think even some European countries are doing pretty much nothing.
    , @FloridaFan
    I agree. Reading these comments about the "low death rate" on this site are scary. Is this really a tribe I want to be associated with? Some of these people against the lockdown sound like they are in a death cult with the Koch brothers. "Must sacrifice the weak for GDP numbers."
  98. @AnotherDad


    These folks are available for new infections once the measures are relaxed and they again go to weddings, etc.
     
    Way off topic, but am i the only one who is jaded on "weddings" now?

    When young women were chaste and weddings celebrated "sacrificing a virgin", the start of conjugal relations, and ergo of family, this was a legitimate and worthy community event

    Now, with young women, ticking through their serial "boyfriends" and then usually sleeping with and finally living with the poor sap for at least a year or two ... the whole "wedding" thing just strikes me as typical female attention whoring. "Oh, look at me i got--insert name of poor sap here--to put a ring on it." Gag.

    I'm a married-with-children guy and a big believer in traditional family, the bedrock of nation and civilization. And I can't see any reason to humor this attention whoring for 90% of women today. Just go to the court house and get your legal paperwork. When you've made a baby then we'll offer congratulations. When you've made and raised three or four babies into fine young adults, then 25 years on we can all have a party and laud you as solid citizens. (But by then, you'll, of course, know it is not the celebrating or attention but the doing of it--the building of family, that is all that matters.)

    When young women were chaste and weddings celebrated “sacrificing a virgin”, the start of conjugal relations, and ergo of family, this was a legitimate and worthy community event

    That’s funny. Mr. and Mrs. Badwhite got married relatively late (32 an 31 years old). After the service one of my friend’s father (who knew I had been pretty prolific in my 20’s) said “congratulations. Now you get to finally try sex”.

    Plus, women still get all the benefits of marriage but (at least in no-fault divorce states) have managed to unload the responsibilities. Marriage (in the US at least) is mostly just a really crappy one-way contract that screws males. In what other aspect of contract law does one party have the right to not only breach the contract, but to continue to be treated as if they didn’t?

    • Replies: @Lot
    “ mostly just a really crappy one-way contract that screws males. ”

    If the sole benefit to men were legitimate children, still worth it.
    , @Marty
    In what other aspect of contract law does one party have the right to not only breach the contract, but to continue to be treated as if they didn’t?

    Employment. If your employee manual contains some sort of promised benefit, the employer gets to change it unilaterally when it becomes inconvenient, if you haven’t yet cashed in. And even assuming the provision is held to be “vested,” you still lose your case if you lied on your resume. This sounds like a joke, but it’s true. It’s called the After-Acquired Evidence doctrine.
  99. anonymous[700] • Disclaimer says:
    @AnotherDad

    • You are your safest sex partner. Masturbation will not spread COVID-19, especially if you
    wash your hands (and any sex toys) with soap and water for at least 20 seconds before
    and after sex.
    • The next safest partner is someone you live with. Having close contact — including sex
    — with only a small circle of people helps prevent spreading COVID-19. Have sex only
    with consenting partners.

    • You should avoid close contact — including sex — with anyone outside your household.
    If you do have sex with others, have as few partners as possible.
     
    Wa, wa, wa ... it's just such a terrible burden to limit yourself to one partner. How can we ask people to do it? (I guessing this is in there for the queers.) Celibacy? LOL.

    Nothing--not even pandemic--should stop the left's most important value after ramming "diversity" down our throats--i.e. promiscuity and trashing the traditional family.

    Nothing–not even pandemic–should stop the left’s most important value after ramming “diversity” down our throats–i.e. promiscuity and trashing the traditional family.

    Just had a conversation with a liberal friend. He went on about how he thought Jordan Peterson was an idiot, and he didn’t like him. I asked what his major issue was with him, he said, “I don’t remember. He’s just an asshole, that’s all. He’s stupid.”

    I said, “but can’t you come up with just one defining idea of his that forced you to conclude that there was no hope for him? Like take Hitler for example. If you asked me about why I don’t like him, I could tell you that his singular approach for reorganizing the Jews left much to be desired. Not a fan.”

    He still couldn’t do it. Nothing.

    So then I ask, “do you enjoy Rachel Maddow?” He said, “I LOVE Rachel Maddow. I watch her every day! She’s what’s helping me get through all this! She’s brilliant!” I said, “really? Somehow, I don’t see it the way you do. She seems like somebody who isn’t as intelligent as I’d like. Really just another pundit.” “Oh, NO! She’s brilliant! She was a Rhodes Scholar!”

    I said, “Well, since we know she was caught completely flat-footed, and even seemed to cry a little, the day after Trump was elected, while popular fat shlub Michael Moore was telling democrats to ‘look out, Trump’s gonna win,’ wouldn’t that tend to undermine your Rhodes Scholar qualification, in relation an exceptional ability to align one’s self to reality? Maybe a Rhodes Scholarship can be abused or perverted, should someone decide to devote themselves to a reality that doesn’t exist–and pay a staff to write her essays, which are labelled to cue cards, which she reads to you every day.”

    Anyway… it went shitty from there, and I moved onto other subjects.

    Conclusion: If someone’s identity, position in life, or paycheck depends on them believing a goldfish is swimming in their mouth 24/7, that is the belief they are going to have. Waiting for them to change requires waiting for them to die of, hopefully, natural causes.

  100. Anonymous[147] • Disclaimer says:
    @BB753
    Total lockdown doesn't seem to stop contagion or fatalities in Italy or Spain. And those measures were taken in those countries a month or two weeks respectively before the US followed suit. So, I'm pretty sceptical about large cities like New York or Washington peaking in June.
    BTW, France is badly hit too and hospitals there are collapsing.

    So, I’m pretty sceptical about large cities like New York or Washington peaking in June.

    Meaning you believe it will peak much earlier? What is your estimate?

    • Replies: @BB753
    It will peak in july and it's going to be very nasty with the heat and humidity. Nurses and doctors are going to die in droves.
  101. @anonguy
    Also as a PSA:

    Fauci, the six president beltway insider as much personally responsible for current US fiasco struggling to reposition himself, reminded us yesterday that, as I pointed out.

    THERE CURRENTLY IS NO EVIDENCE THAT ONE GAINS IMMUNITY TO CORONAVIRUS

    He cheerfully and optimistically opined that he would bet anything that there would be, although whether it would be one month or permanent, he didn't specify, so that was kind of weaselly, most laymen assume immunity means 100% and forever, whereas it means something else to med researchers.

    One thing I'll credit the guy is he won't tell a flat out lie and he's actually not doing the fail by omission or failure to be forthright.

    He's been pretty good about blurting out the truth, unlike the past thirty years, who ever heard of the guy, but obviously central to US public health stuff and all the games there.

    THERE CURRENTLY IS NO EVIDENCE THAT ONE GAINS IMMUNITY TO CORONAVIRUS

    He cheerfully and optimistically opined that he would bet anything that there would be,

    I think you got the ALL CAPS backward. The leading epidemiologist in the US if not the world said that HE WOULD BET ANYTHING THAT YOU GAIN IMMUNITY.

    Of course this is a novel virus and it hasn’t been comprehensively studied yet, so as a scientist he made full disclosure that evidence is still lacking either way, but there’s no reason to believe that it is different from almost all other known viruses, from which you gain at least temporary or partial immunity after recovery.

    If Dr. Fauci told you, “I would bet anything that this new flavor of ice cream makes you fat, but there is currently no evidence that it does,” you’d go out and binge on 5 gallons of the stuff because you are hearing what you want to hear.

    • Replies: @anonguy
    I've never blocked an unz commenter, or anyone anywhere else but your responses to my conmmentary are starting to seem creepy and stalkerish.

    Or at least a distraction, which isn't productive at the moment.

    You need to up your game, pal.

    Who knows what you are in real life, but here you present two channels that are tiresomely, and for yourself, embarrassingly, predictable:

    1) Fox News/Hannity etc party line stuff. This is increasingly, and exponentially, oh there is that word again, getting accepted only by ever lower information people.

    2) Extreme OCD penny wise/pound foolish daily life recommendations, like how if one takes a moment to collect their belly button lint rather than washing it away, after you accumulate enough it makes suprisingly effective kitty litter.

    So, again, pretty much fail on your comment. But do try again. You seem like a reasonably bright dude, could actually be useful, but now just way, way, way, drilled into a context bubble.

    That is popping everywhere.

    , @YetAnotherAnon
    You gain temporary immunity to common cold coronaviruses, or you'd have a permanent cold. But temporary immunity to CV doesn't sound that healthy to me, given that it may come round again if it's not stamped on.

    Back in the days when the UK strategy was 'herd immunity', someone (here?) did some sums and calculated that endemic CV with no vaccine would cut about 2.5 years from average Western lifespans.
  102. @Jack D

    THERE CURRENTLY IS NO EVIDENCE THAT ONE GAINS IMMUNITY TO CORONAVIRUS

    He cheerfully and optimistically opined that he would bet anything that there would be,
     
    I think you got the ALL CAPS backward. The leading epidemiologist in the US if not the world said that HE WOULD BET ANYTHING THAT YOU GAIN IMMUNITY.

    Of course this is a novel virus and it hasn't been comprehensively studied yet, so as a scientist he made full disclosure that evidence is still lacking either way, but there's no reason to believe that it is different from almost all other known viruses, from which you gain at least temporary or partial immunity after recovery.

    If Dr. Fauci told you, "I would bet anything that this new flavor of ice cream makes you fat, but there is currently no evidence that it does," you'd go out and binge on 5 gallons of the stuff because you are hearing what you want to hear.

    I’ve never blocked an unz commenter, or anyone anywhere else but your responses to my conmmentary are starting to seem creepy and stalkerish.

    Or at least a distraction, which isn’t productive at the moment.

    You need to up your game, pal.

    Who knows what you are in real life, but here you present two channels that are tiresomely, and for yourself, embarrassingly, predictable:

    1) Fox News/Hannity etc party line stuff. This is increasingly, and exponentially, oh there is that word again, getting accepted only by ever lower information people.

    2) Extreme OCD penny wise/pound foolish daily life recommendations, like how if one takes a moment to collect their belly button lint rather than washing it away, after you accumulate enough it makes suprisingly effective kitty litter.

    So, again, pretty much fail on your comment. But do try again. You seem like a reasonably bright dude, could actually be useful, but now just way, way, way, drilled into a context bubble.

    That is popping everywhere.

  103. @Reg Cæsar

    I noticed the pic of the Belgian Health Minister – if she’s not got a BMI of 40
     
    That's a lot of waffles and sprouts!

    How else would her figure walloon to such a magnitude? I got a phlegmish reaction myself just looking at her. Excuse me, I have to run to the waterloo...

    Pardon the sound of flushing. (Oops. That's in the Netherlands.)

    [disclosure: “Flushing Meadows” is the only term which immediately popped into my head – most of the following was cribbed from Google]

    Good ones! But don’t forget cross-dressers afflicted with Covid 19- related diarrhea in Flushing, Queens.
    https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Flushing,_Queens

    Which should not be confused with Flushing Meadows-Corona Park(!).
    https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Flushing_Meadows%E2%80%93Corona_Park

    [MORE]

    OT
    Flushing Meadows might make some dwell on Rachel Maddow who prompted a Google Search some time ago (related somehow to someone commenting on the Boeing 737 stuff). Maddow is surprisingly NOT a cognate of “meadow” but instead a cognate of Medved[ev] (as in a former Russian President) which means “honey eater” which is a classic “taboo word” for “bear.” (Reg Caesar is doubtless aware of that) Sadly, Rachel did not appear to be related to the guy who wrote “Up Out of Zoar” (spoiler alert – it’s a post-apocalyptic story of a deplorable, a father, a daughter and incest) published (one of the few short stories which I read during many years of subscribing) many years ago in Playboy magazine.
    Also see the related “Mede” (as in the classic “One man’s Mede is another man’s Persian”) which means “sweet.” The search led to Tocharian A and Tocharian B, though not to Linear A and Linear Honey B.
    Is “Honey Mead” redundant?
    Given your (R.C.) residence in Minnesota, it’s very likely that you’v seen the road sign for the Zoar church en route to the North Shore.

    • Replies: @reactionry
    oops - Medved is the root word and Medvedev is the patronymic?
  104. @AnotherDad
    I'm not saying we wouldn't get our hair mussed, but i do say, no more than one to two million killed, tops.

    “What do you figure for breakage?”

  105. @William Badwhite

    When young women were chaste and weddings celebrated “sacrificing a virgin”, the start of conjugal relations, and ergo of family, this was a legitimate and worthy community event

     

    That's funny. Mr. and Mrs. Badwhite got married relatively late (32 an 31 years old). After the service one of my friend's father (who knew I had been pretty prolific in my 20's) said "congratulations. Now you get to finally try sex".

    Plus, women still get all the benefits of marriage but (at least in no-fault divorce states) have managed to unload the responsibilities. Marriage (in the US at least) is mostly just a really crappy one-way contract that screws males. In what other aspect of contract law does one party have the right to not only breach the contract, but to continue to be treated as if they didn't?

    “ mostly just a really crappy one-way contract that screws males. ”

    If the sole benefit to men were legitimate children, still worth it.

    • Replies: @William Badwhite
    The thing is, in no-fault divorce states, even legitimate children isn't guaranteed. Well to put it another way, if the man discovers the children aren't his, there isn't much he can do about it.
  106. @reactionry
    [disclosure: "Flushing Meadows" is the only term which immediately popped into my head - most of the following was cribbed from Google]

    Good ones! But don't forget cross-dressers afflicted with Covid 19- related diarrhea in Flushing, Queens.
    https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Flushing,_Queens

    Which should not be confused with Flushing Meadows-Corona Park(!).
    https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Flushing_Meadows%E2%80%93Corona_Park

    OT
    Flushing Meadows might make some dwell on Rachel Maddow who prompted a Google Search some time ago (related somehow to someone commenting on the Boeing 737 stuff). Maddow is surprisingly NOT a cognate of "meadow" but instead a cognate of Medved[ev] (as in a former Russian President) which means "honey eater" which is a classic "taboo word" for "bear." (Reg Caesar is doubtless aware of that) Sadly, Rachel did not appear to be related to the guy who wrote "Up Out of Zoar" (spoiler alert - it's a post-apocalyptic story of a deplorable, a father, a daughter and incest) published (one of the few short stories which I read during many years of subscribing) many years ago in Playboy magazine.
    Also see the related "Mede" (as in the classic "One man's Mede is another man's Persian") which means "sweet." The search led to Tocharian A and Tocharian B, though not to Linear A and Linear Honey B.
    Is "Honey Mead" redundant?
    Given your (R.C.) residence in Minnesota, it's very likely that you'v seen the road sign for the Zoar church en route to the North Shore.

    oops – Medved is the root word and Medvedev is the patronymic?

  107. Anon[223] • Disclaimer says:

    Steve,
    I generally agree with the numbers on this site, but (thankfully), there are two positive points that I don’t see discussed much here that somewhat improve the picture.

    First, we have dramatically ramped up testing, and yet the growth in measured Coronavirus cases on a daily basis is slowing. Now, it is around 10% a day, which is not good in absolute terms, but does showcase some improvement than the crazy growth that we were having a week ago, which was around 60% increases in most of the major metropolitan areas. Since we are testing more, this is a very positive picture.

    Second, and the most important, is that the ratio of positive results to total tests has remained around the 18% part for the last week or so. This is enormously good news since testing ramped far after cases started to exponentially grow. So we have two exponential curves, but one that is far ahead of the other. That means that the ratio of positive to negative should be skyrocketing, since the absolute gains in actual cases would have far surpassed the gains in tests. E.X: Cases going from 500k to 1 million in NYC, while testing went from 25k to 75k. Yet, we have the same ratio of positive cases to total tests as we did two weeks ago, which was around 18%. That is vastly good news. If the other scenario was happening, our national positive test ratio would have skyrocked. Remember, we are not random testing, but giving tests to those who exhibit symptoms, a population far more likely to have corona than the general population.

    Also, one flaw with the lockdown plan is something I also think is not much discussed here. While America has a high national savings rate, we have a pitiful personal savings rate. The average American has only some $500 on liquid savings. A protracted lockdown could lead to the deaths of hundreds of thousands of people from complications. This is why I think that leaders are hesitant to shutdown. Of course, shutdowns are the way to go, but I feel like this perspective needs to be added.

    In China, which has a high savings rate, the mortality rate of the Chinese skyrocked over the last few months, with hundreds of thousands more dying from shutdown related complications. Of course, this is better than your whole country dying from Corona, but I think the consequences will be severe here as well. Those stimulus dollars may help though.

    That is just my two cents. No one really knows what can happen. Japan avoided the crisis with an open economy(with masks), while China had to shutdown to stop Corona. It depends on complicated factors.

    • Replies: @Lot
    “ In China, which has a high savings rate”

    A lot of that went into unregulated alternative financial products (“wealth management products”) which may not be easily spent or turned into cash. Total shadow banking in China may be more than 100% of GDP.

    Good overview:

    https://papers.ssrn.com/sol3/papers.cfm?abstract_id=3401597

    I think it will probably be the case the central government will bail out failed WMPs to prevent panic, so I am not especially worried. Still, if I had my savings in them I want it out ASAP.

    WMPs pay rates far above banks and have never been tested in a financial crisis as they took off around 2011. They take in deposits from both the middle and upper class and lend it out to real estate investors and as short term loans to businesses.

    Their steady and fast growth could be a serious problem if it stops and loans can’t be rolled over, or if there are even moderate defaults in the high single digit percentages. I’d also be pretty surprised if at least 1% of them weren’t total ponzi scheme frauds, and it is times like now that ponzis are most likely to collapse.
    , @Anon
    Well,
    It looks like I am on the right track here. According to the Government, only 255 people died today of coronavirus, which is totally in line with what would you expect with a virus with a mere 18% positive rate on its testing. This is a collapse of over 50 percent in deaths, more dramatic than an
    Maybe this will hold, maybe it won't, but it is certainly good news and counter to some of the doom and gloom on this site.
  108. @anonguy
    California, at least by comparison to other US states/cities, very much got out in front of coronavirus and it is paying off so far.

    Who knows what happens downstream but so far they've avoided the catastrophic onset like Italy or NY, leaving them in good shape for next moves.

    I'm not. a fan of the political leadership in the state but you have to give credit where due and they've been very good once they awoke to the threat.

    FWIW, some people here cant break out of their blue-red framing of everything so they see what California has done as a bad thing.

    Pedos in their cheerios types, which is another first world luxury, like SJWs with their microaggressions.

    Funny how suddenly nobody cares about any of that stuff at least, and blessedly, for the moment. Reality does that to people.

    The “car culture” hipsters and environmental wackos love to castigate sure comes in handy when you can be alone in your car safe from infection as opposed to being packed on public transport like sardines.

    • Agree: XYZ (no Mr.)
    • Replies: @anonguy

    The “car culture” hipsters and environmental wackos love to castigate sure comes in handy when you can be alone in your car safe from infection as opposed to being packed on public transport like sardines.
     
    Novel diseases gore sacred oxen equally across the spectrum. This thing is causing a refactoring of countless practices/assumptions/institutions.

    Back in February, it seemed like west coast would be first community transmission outbreak due to large Chinese presence and the fecal oral contamination route, still ignored in west, and exacerbated by the homeless situation there.

    I couldn't figure if SF or PNW first, I thought LA was a little too warm.

    So that worked that way, SF then Seattle a day later reported community transmission.

    I had no opinion about how the downstream arc would go and I'm really gratified to see California's response.

    For better or worse, they've been managing a more complex problem, day to day, than other state governments, given the size, economic and demographic diversity, than a lot of podunk state governments.

    They seem to have put on their big boy pants. Hope that attitude spreads.
    , @Reg Cæsar

    The “car culture” hipsters and environmental wackos love to castigate sure comes in handy when you can be alone in your car safe from infection as opposed to being packed on public transport like sardines.
     
    You are safer on the A train in the midst of this pandemic than on almost any highway in the land-- or world. This virus has a lot of catching up to do:

    https://www.nsc.org/road-safety/safety-topics/fatality-estimates

  109. @Jack D

    THERE CURRENTLY IS NO EVIDENCE THAT ONE GAINS IMMUNITY TO CORONAVIRUS

    He cheerfully and optimistically opined that he would bet anything that there would be,
     
    I think you got the ALL CAPS backward. The leading epidemiologist in the US if not the world said that HE WOULD BET ANYTHING THAT YOU GAIN IMMUNITY.

    Of course this is a novel virus and it hasn't been comprehensively studied yet, so as a scientist he made full disclosure that evidence is still lacking either way, but there's no reason to believe that it is different from almost all other known viruses, from which you gain at least temporary or partial immunity after recovery.

    If Dr. Fauci told you, "I would bet anything that this new flavor of ice cream makes you fat, but there is currently no evidence that it does," you'd go out and binge on 5 gallons of the stuff because you are hearing what you want to hear.

    You gain temporary immunity to common cold coronaviruses, or you’d have a permanent cold. But temporary immunity to CV doesn’t sound that healthy to me, given that it may come round again if it’s not stamped on.

    Back in the days when the UK strategy was ‘herd immunity’, someone (here?) did some sums and calculated that endemic CV with no vaccine would cut about 2.5 years from average Western lifespans.

    • Replies: @anonguy
    One should also note that several days ago he described and admitted the possibility of Antibody Dependent Enhancement.

    So you do get clinical measure of immunity - antibodies generated or whatever.

    But next time around the virus can use the antibodies against the host.

    He didn't use the technical term, but he described it precisely.

    So somebody should ask him what is the potential for, if you do get some degree of immunity, it actually makes things worse in this case.

    If the question is posed, he'd answer it honestly, but now he's hoping someone else asks the question.
    , @Jack D
    Just as another data point here in the "we're all gonna die" panic, I just heard from my sister who lives in the vicinity of Naples, FL (at least in the winter). About a week ago she lost her sense of taste and smell, which she had heard was a symptom of the virus so after calling the state hotline she was instructed to go to an urgent care center where she was tested and (6 days later) confirmed to be positive for the virus. Afterward, she developed mild cold-like symptoms for a few days - a slight fever, slight "under the weather'" tired feeling, but now these symptoms are fading away and she feels almost back to normal. She sounded fine on the phone, not short of breath or anything like that. She is, BTW, over 70 and somewhat overweight but otherwise in reasonably good health - not a smoker, etc.
  110. @Sebastian Hawks
    The "car culture" hipsters and environmental wackos love to castigate sure comes in handy when you can be alone in your car safe from infection as opposed to being packed on public transport like sardines.

    The “car culture” hipsters and environmental wackos love to castigate sure comes in handy when you can be alone in your car safe from infection as opposed to being packed on public transport like sardines.

    Novel diseases gore sacred oxen equally across the spectrum. This thing is causing a refactoring of countless practices/assumptions/institutions.

    Back in February, it seemed like west coast would be first community transmission outbreak due to large Chinese presence and the fecal oral contamination route, still ignored in west, and exacerbated by the homeless situation there.

    I couldn’t figure if SF or PNW first, I thought LA was a little too warm.

    So that worked that way, SF then Seattle a day later reported community transmission.

    I had no opinion about how the downstream arc would go and I’m really gratified to see California’s response.

    For better or worse, they’ve been managing a more complex problem, day to day, than other state governments, given the size, economic and demographic diversity, than a lot of podunk state governments.

    They seem to have put on their big boy pants. Hope that attitude spreads.

  111. @kpkinsunnyphiladelphia
    Somewhat OT, but a 33 year old female aide to the governor of Louisiana has died from Wuhan complications. See the typically breathless story from CNN.

    https://www.cnn.com/2020/03/29/health/april-dunn-coronavirus/index.html

    Obviously, she is the woman at the bottom of the picture, the governor's disabilities person.

    And just as obviously, she hasn't been riding the Peloton faithfully, though that particular fitness tool is aimed at thin and bulimic-inclined urban white women under 35.

    Anyway, sad of course, but for heaven's sake if you are in wheel chair permanently, do go out.

    Just looking at that photo I can guarantee she has diabetes and at least one heart condition.

    I’d bet money she has several other significant health issues.

    Being 33 is not a guarantor of great health, despite what the lunatics on CNN want us to believe.

  112. @Anon
    If we falsely imprison billions of people in their homes -- the equivalent of a million lives worth of wasted time -- then the disease will go away when it would have gone away anyway. And then next year we can start it all over again.

    More like late this year.

  113. Anonymous[147] • Disclaimer says:
    @Achmed E. Newman
    Also, about 2 hours ago, I talked to a doctor friend. He is a specialist, so he doesn't know that much specifically about the Kung Flu. He does work at a hospital 6 days a week, sometimes 7, so he sees what's going on there at least.

    However, he told me that he had a conversation with an ID Doc (I had to ask too, but that's an Infectious Disease doctor). That guy told the group basically that "hey, everyone's gonna get this thing. Do you know anyone who's never had a cold?" Now, that's not to imply it's just like a cold, of course. My doctor friend also things this deal has been overblown, but not as much as I do.

    However, he told me that he had a conversation with an ID Doc (I had to ask too, but that’s an Infectious Disease doctor). That guy told the group basically that “hey, everyone’s gonna get this thing. Do you know anyone who’s never had a cold?”

    What point was he trying to make?

  114. Why all the fuss? It’s just a flu….

    https://www.timesofisrael.com/mom-im-afraid-seriously-ill-virus-patient-22-said-before-being-sedated/

    The mother of a seriously ill 22-year-old coronavirus patient, whose condition rapidly deteriorated to the point where doctors put him on a ventilator, told media Sunday that her son had spoken of his fears before being tranquilized.

    The man, who has not been named in media reports, had no preexisting medical issues when he was diagnosed with COVID-19, the disease caused by the new coronavirus.
    …………………………………..
    A resident of the southern port city of Ashdod, he was hospitalized last Wednesday and by the following day was no longer able to stand or take a shower, his mother told the Ynet news site.
    ……………………………………………………………….
    By Sunday morning, due to his rapidly deteriorating condition and increasing difficulty breathing, doctors at the Samson Assuta Ashdod University Hospital made the decision to sedate him and hook him up to a ventilator.

    • Replies: @The Wild Geese Howard
    Also from your article:

    The mother explained that her son had recently been in the US with two friends, touring in Miami and then Las Vegas.
     
    Now, it is possible that they were on a holistic, locavore paleo diet yoga retreat.

    However, it is far, far more likely that they were getting minimal sleep, eating horribly unhealthy fried foods, drinking like fish, and engaging in promiscuous, possibly deviant sexual activity.

    That would leave their immune systems were a wreck by the time they got on a plane back to Israel under the assumption they could just sleep it off on the long haul.
    , @Hippopotamusdrome


    The man, who has not been named in media reports...

     

    Voldemort?


    Woman tells media...

     

    The mom is anonymous too?
  115. @Bitfu
    This is starting to remind me of a book by Leon Festinger, 'When Prophecy Fails'.

    This book gave an inside account of belief persistence in members of a UFO doomsday cult, and documented the increased proselytization they exhibited after the leader's "end of the world" prophecy failed to come true. The prediction of the Earth's destruction, supposedly sent by aliens to the leader of the group, became a disconfirmed expectancy that caused dissonance between the cognitions, "the world is going to end" and "the world did not end." Although some members abandoned the group when the prophecy failed, most of the members lessened their dissonance by accepting a new belief, that the planet was spared because of the faith of the group.
     
    I'm not being cynical, either. Two weeks ago, we were told that 500k - 2 million US deaths were imminent. Now, it's maybe 80k with over 90% being elderly ot with pre-existing conditions. This is no end-of-world pandemic. And for the love of God--it's not 'our WWII'. [STFU] It's a once in a decade flu. Terrible for sure, but nothing close to what we were told.

    In the meantime, civil freedoms are being ripped away as we paved the way for a new style of governance called the 'Emergency State'. We don't even bother increasing the base number to our debt, now we just subtly jack up that weird, little exponential number at the top. And many of our livelihoods are getting torched.

    Odder still, the majority of people still support the response. Social Media companies even go out of their way to nuke dissenting facts--'out of a concern for the welfare of others'.

    But maybe there's a silver lining --once it becomes apparent that the response to COVID-19 was a shocking over-reaction, every journo, social media 'influencer', and government bureaucrat will be ridiculed and mocked mercilessly for willful buffoonery.

    Mark these words, BlueChecks: A tsunami of seething contempt is headed your way.

    “But maybe there’s a silver lining –once it becomes apparent that the response to COVID-19 was a shocking over-reaction, every journo, social media ‘influencer’, and government bureaucrat will be ridiculed and mocked mercilessly for willful buffoonery.”

    Wrong. They will declare victory and indulge a nauseating public orgy of self-congratulation.

    • Agree: Hibernian
  116. @YetAnotherAnon
    You gain temporary immunity to common cold coronaviruses, or you'd have a permanent cold. But temporary immunity to CV doesn't sound that healthy to me, given that it may come round again if it's not stamped on.

    Back in the days when the UK strategy was 'herd immunity', someone (here?) did some sums and calculated that endemic CV with no vaccine would cut about 2.5 years from average Western lifespans.

    One should also note that several days ago he described and admitted the possibility of Antibody Dependent Enhancement.

    So you do get clinical measure of immunity – antibodies generated or whatever.

    But next time around the virus can use the antibodies against the host.

    He didn’t use the technical term, but he described it precisely.

    So somebody should ask him what is the potential for, if you do get some degree of immunity, it actually makes things worse in this case.

    If the question is posed, he’d answer it honestly, but now he’s hoping someone else asks the question.

  117. @Anon
    Steve,
    I generally agree with the numbers on this site, but (thankfully), there are two positive points that I don't see discussed much here that somewhat improve the picture.

    First, we have dramatically ramped up testing, and yet the growth in measured Coronavirus cases on a daily basis is slowing. Now, it is around 10% a day, which is not good in absolute terms, but does showcase some improvement than the crazy growth that we were having a week ago, which was around 60% increases in most of the major metropolitan areas. Since we are testing more, this is a very positive picture.

    Second, and the most important, is that the ratio of positive results to total tests has remained around the 18% part for the last week or so. This is enormously good news since testing ramped far after cases started to exponentially grow. So we have two exponential curves, but one that is far ahead of the other. That means that the ratio of positive to negative should be skyrocketing, since the absolute gains in actual cases would have far surpassed the gains in tests. E.X: Cases going from 500k to 1 million in NYC, while testing went from 25k to 75k. Yet, we have the same ratio of positive cases to total tests as we did two weeks ago, which was around 18%. That is vastly good news. If the other scenario was happening, our national positive test ratio would have skyrocked. Remember, we are not random testing, but giving tests to those who exhibit symptoms, a population far more likely to have corona than the general population.

    Also, one flaw with the lockdown plan is something I also think is not much discussed here. While America has a high national savings rate, we have a pitiful personal savings rate. The average American has only some $500 on liquid savings. A protracted lockdown could lead to the deaths of hundreds of thousands of people from complications. This is why I think that leaders are hesitant to shutdown. Of course, shutdowns are the way to go, but I feel like this perspective needs to be added.

    In China, which has a high savings rate, the mortality rate of the Chinese skyrocked over the last few months, with hundreds of thousands more dying from shutdown related complications. Of course, this is better than your whole country dying from Corona, but I think the consequences will be severe here as well. Those stimulus dollars may help though.

    That is just my two cents. No one really knows what can happen. Japan avoided the crisis with an open economy(with masks), while China had to shutdown to stop Corona. It depends on complicated factors.

    “ In China, which has a high savings rate”

    A lot of that went into unregulated alternative financial products (“wealth management products”) which may not be easily spent or turned into cash. Total shadow banking in China may be more than 100% of GDP.

    Good overview:

    https://papers.ssrn.com/sol3/papers.cfm?abstract_id=3401597

    I think it will probably be the case the central government will bail out failed WMPs to prevent panic, so I am not especially worried. Still, if I had my savings in them I want it out ASAP.

    WMPs pay rates far above banks and have never been tested in a financial crisis as they took off around 2011. They take in deposits from both the middle and upper class and lend it out to real estate investors and as short term loans to businesses.

    Their steady and fast growth could be a serious problem if it stops and loans can’t be rolled over, or if there are even moderate defaults in the high single digit percentages. I’d also be pretty surprised if at least 1% of them weren’t total ponzi scheme frauds, and it is times like now that ponzis are most likely to collapse.

  118. @kpkinsunnyphiladelphia
    Somewhat OT, but a 33 year old female aide to the governor of Louisiana has died from Wuhan complications. See the typically breathless story from CNN.

    https://www.cnn.com/2020/03/29/health/april-dunn-coronavirus/index.html

    Obviously, she is the woman at the bottom of the picture, the governor's disabilities person.

    And just as obviously, she hasn't been riding the Peloton faithfully, though that particular fitness tool is aimed at thin and bulimic-inclined urban white women under 35.

    Anyway, sad of course, but for heaven's sake if you are in wheel chair permanently, do go out.

    “Obviously, she is the woman at the bottom of the picture, the governor’s disabilities person.”

    Like the Hair Club for Men, she’s not just the president – she’s a client!

  119. @As
    What are the demographics of the dead in the US?

    Are they all old, sick people?

    Are we wrecking the economy for the benefit of old sick people?

    I keep hearing that Covid 19 is much deadlier than the flu. Again for whom? Certainly not for the young and healthy or for babies. Are they talking about old sick people?

    For young people, the cure—the economic shutdown—is worse than the disease.

    This is a report on a study from the Korea Centers for Disease Control, so it only looks at the (then) 124 deaths in that country, but it’s helpful:
    http://www.koreatimes.co.kr/www/nation/2020/03/113_286775.html
    Highlights:

    An analysis of coronavirus fatalities shows 86 percent of people who died from the virus in South Korea suffered high blood pressure or diabetes, or a combination of the two.

    Among them only nine had no pre-existing disease.

    the fatality rate of patients aged under 50 was below 1 percent, but rose to 1.75 percent among those in their 60s, 6.25 percent among the 70s and 13 percent among the 80s.

    That first statistic should be particularly sobering for America, because we are the perennial obesity champions for the OECD (and Korea is among the slimmest).
    https://www.oecd.org/health/obesity-update.htm

  120. @YetAnotherAnon
    You gain temporary immunity to common cold coronaviruses, or you'd have a permanent cold. But temporary immunity to CV doesn't sound that healthy to me, given that it may come round again if it's not stamped on.

    Back in the days when the UK strategy was 'herd immunity', someone (here?) did some sums and calculated that endemic CV with no vaccine would cut about 2.5 years from average Western lifespans.

    Just as another data point here in the “we’re all gonna die” panic, I just heard from my sister who lives in the vicinity of Naples, FL (at least in the winter). About a week ago she lost her sense of taste and smell, which she had heard was a symptom of the virus so after calling the state hotline she was instructed to go to an urgent care center where she was tested and (6 days later) confirmed to be positive for the virus. Afterward, she developed mild cold-like symptoms for a few days – a slight fever, slight “under the weather’” tired feeling, but now these symptoms are fading away and she feels almost back to normal. She sounded fine on the phone, not short of breath or anything like that. She is, BTW, over 70 and somewhat overweight but otherwise in reasonably good health – not a smoker, etc.

    • Replies: @Achmed E. Newman
    Test or no test, Jack, tell here to stay out of Del Boca Vista!
    , @Bardon Kaldian

    who lives in the vicinity of Naples, FL
     
    vedi Napoli e poi muori
    , @Reg Cæsar

    my sister who lives in the vicinity of Naples, FL
     
    Who bags her groceries? Seriously, that's been a perennial problem there.

    Are they all delivered now? Imagine a 40-mile commute from Immokalee, followed by a shift of driving food around, and a commute home.
    , @danand

    “Just as another data point”
     
    Jesus Jack, your own sister, just another data point? In other respects, thanks for the enlightening report on her experience. Hope she and hers stay well.
    , @AnotherDad
    Glad to hear your sister is recovering nicely Jack. When i was younger 70-something sounded old and done, but lately i've been thinking it's too young to go.
  121. Mid-April Death Peak would make for a quality punk band name.

    • LOL: Hibernian
  122. @Achmed E. Newman

    Having competent people in charge really makes all the difference during a deadly epidemic.
     
    Oh, bullcrap. Other than in the middle of San Fran. or the small downtown L.A., Californians have still got lots of room to live. Even though it is TWICE as crowded a state on the whole as it was sometime in the 1970s, most people still live in detached houses or sprawled-out apartment complexes. Compare this to NY City, where people live packed in like sardines, and almost as in China.

    Speaking of China, perhaps the disease has spread most quickly where the most Chinese people have come home and gone back, in the thousands or tens of thousands during the Spring Festival time. Is there a correlation of that with the areas with most infected people in California? Speaking of that, how about in the huge Hispanic areas of LA or the Bay Area? They live closer together than the gringos for the most part due to being packed many more to a house. Is there much of the Kung Flu in the barrio-burbs? I kinda doubt it, because they don't go back and forth to China. And, no, they don't need no steeenking lock-downs, and I respect them very much for that.

    You come on here often, berate the commenters, and tell us about your wonderful mathematical modeling. Then you pull some theories out of your ass about the competency of California bureaucrats? Puhleeze!

    “…perhaps the disease has spread most quickly where the most Chinese people have come home and gone back, in the thousands or tens of thousands during the Spring Festival time…”

    Canada: Chinese 1.77 mil out of 37.6 mil and covid 6,280/63dead
    California: Chinese 1.25 mil out of 39.56 mil and covid 5,791/123dead
    NY: Chinese 0.9 mil out of 20 mil and ovid 59,000/965 dead

    NY Chinese must be (1.25/0.9)*(59,000/5,791)=14 times more mobile that California Chinese according to your facile theory. And Canadian Chinese kill natives at (1.77/1.25)*(123/63)=2.76 lower efficacy than the California Chinese, right?

    See where the first vectors of the virus were form in British Columbia and how many were from Iran, Egypt and Europe?

    https://nationalpost.com/news/canada/covid-19-coronavirus-canadian-cases

    • Replies: @Achmed E. Newman
    You are one dense sumbitch. Yeah, density. Didn't you see where half the comment was about population density in California vs. NY City? Did you read the word "City" the first time? I wasn't talking about the whole state of NY. NY City is specifically where the Chinatowns are, where the population lives with a density a lot closer to that in China than the rest of NY State, and it's where a yuge chunk of the Kung Flu deaths have been.

    It's all about density, and you ought to know a lot about that, judging from your reply.

  123. @Jack D
    Just as another data point here in the "we're all gonna die" panic, I just heard from my sister who lives in the vicinity of Naples, FL (at least in the winter). About a week ago she lost her sense of taste and smell, which she had heard was a symptom of the virus so after calling the state hotline she was instructed to go to an urgent care center where she was tested and (6 days later) confirmed to be positive for the virus. Afterward, she developed mild cold-like symptoms for a few days - a slight fever, slight "under the weather'" tired feeling, but now these symptoms are fading away and she feels almost back to normal. She sounded fine on the phone, not short of breath or anything like that. She is, BTW, over 70 and somewhat overweight but otherwise in reasonably good health - not a smoker, etc.

    Test or no test, Jack, tell here to stay out of Del Boca Vista!

  124. @YetAnotherAnon
    Steve, did you pick up on the comment about Belgium throwing away six million (!) masks because they were past the use date, but not replacing them?

    https://www.lemonde.fr/international/article/2020/03/25/la-belgique-toujours-en-manque-de-masques-possedait-un-stock-important-mais-l-a-detruit_6034437_3210.html

    I noticed the pic of the Belgian Health Minister - if she's not got a BMI of 40 (making her vulnerable to coronachan at any age) she must be very close.

    https://img.lemde.fr/2020/03/20/0/0/5019/3346/688/0/60/0/d7889cc_5416952-01-06.jpg

    This reminds one how many fat gym teachers there are.

  125. @William Badwhite

    When young women were chaste and weddings celebrated “sacrificing a virgin”, the start of conjugal relations, and ergo of family, this was a legitimate and worthy community event

     

    That's funny. Mr. and Mrs. Badwhite got married relatively late (32 an 31 years old). After the service one of my friend's father (who knew I had been pretty prolific in my 20's) said "congratulations. Now you get to finally try sex".

    Plus, women still get all the benefits of marriage but (at least in no-fault divorce states) have managed to unload the responsibilities. Marriage (in the US at least) is mostly just a really crappy one-way contract that screws males. In what other aspect of contract law does one party have the right to not only breach the contract, but to continue to be treated as if they didn't?

    In what other aspect of contract law does one party have the right to not only breach the contract, but to continue to be treated as if they didn’t?

    Employment. If your employee manual contains some sort of promised benefit, the employer gets to change it unilaterally when it becomes inconvenient, if you haven’t yet cashed in. And even assuming the provision is held to be “vested,” you still lose your case if you lied on your resume. This sounds like a joke, but it’s true. It’s called the After-Acquired Evidence doctrine.

    • Replies: @Keypusher

    Employment. If your employee manual contains some sort of promised benefit, the employer gets to change it unilaterally when it becomes inconvenient, if you haven’t yet cashed in. And even assuming the provision is held to be “vested,” you still lose your case if you lied on your resume. This sounds like a joke, but it’s true. It’s called the After-Acquired Evidence doctrine.
     
    Everything in that paragraph is utter bullshit. The employer might get away with unilateral changes in the manual, if it has made clear that it has the right to do so. And yes, IAAL.
  126. @As
    What are the demographics of the dead in the US?

    Are they all old, sick people?

    Are we wrecking the economy for the benefit of old sick people?

    I keep hearing that Covid 19 is much deadlier than the flu. Again for whom? Certainly not for the young and healthy or for babies. Are they talking about old sick people?

    For young people, the cure—the economic shutdown—is worse than the disease.

    What are the demographics of the dead in the US?
    Are they all old, sick people?

    Yesterday NYC released some demographic information on its deaths. Three-quarters age 75 or older, 97% with at least one other major health condition. Pretty much in line with Spain and Italy.

    • Replies: @Jack D
    In the old days, pneumonia was called "The Old Man's Friend" (old being anyone over 70) because it would rescue him from the vale of loneliness and suffering and mental loss in which many of the elderly used to dwell (and many still do) and bring him to a higher plane of existence (but it's a sin to take matters into your own hands - Catch-22). But now that we "know" that this existence is all you get, no one wants the show to end, as Hibernian said the other day. And as Jonathan said, there are pecuniary interests involved - nursing homes that harvest the pension of the elderly, children living in their houses, etc. and so we must turn the world upside to save them at all costs.
  127. @YetAnotherAnon
    Steve, did you pick up on the comment about Belgium throwing away six million (!) masks because they were past the use date, but not replacing them?

    https://www.lemonde.fr/international/article/2020/03/25/la-belgique-toujours-en-manque-de-masques-possedait-un-stock-important-mais-l-a-detruit_6034437_3210.html

    I noticed the pic of the Belgian Health Minister - if she's not got a BMI of 40 (making her vulnerable to coronachan at any age) she must be very close.

    https://img.lemde.fr/2020/03/20/0/0/5019/3346/688/0/60/0/d7889cc_5416952-01-06.jpg

    You know that bitch better stay off the beach or the do-gooders will show up and try to roll her back into the ocean . Happened to me once . There I was trying to enjoy my day off sunning myself on the beach . The next thing I know the first batch showed up and tried to push me back into the sea but I manged to get back out of the surf . Then it was Animal Rescue and the local I-team news with the Vet splainin’ how the poor baby whale must have some kinda’ virus that interfered with it’s “navigation system” . “Look how exhausted it is weakly flapping it’s flippers” . At home the future little “humanitarians” were all “is the little baby whale going to die mommy ?” Yeah it is , tie a yellow ribbon around the old oak tree for the the endangered species . As a fitting tribute , they built a sand castle in memoriam . Stuffed animals and plastic flowers the whole works and then everybody died of the Kung Flu . I went to the liquor store and bought a 5th of Meyers .
    Hey, I was wondering , this TP crisis we’re facing here on planet Earth made me curious how do they wipe their asses on the ISS ? I mean do they use TP for their cornholliols ? How would that work ? Do they send 12 packs up on the Russian Rockets , what does that cost ? What do they do with their weightless turds ? Just flush them out into space ? Do they bring them back ? Do you think there would be a market for space turds ? Remember the key chains with plastic coated buffalo turds ? Man life is just chock full of mysteries isn’t it ? Kinda’ puts the Chinese virus in perspective you know ?

    • Replies: @Anonymous
    In a vacuum, turds outgas and turn into coffee grounds like particles, dry and odorless.
  128. @Ron Unz
    Actually, I just left a couple of comments on the UWash numbers, which seem pretty implausible to me:

    Well, they have some fancy Javascript charting system, but I’m *extremely* skeptical about their numbers.

    The California totals seems reasonably plausible given that our state led the nation into lockdown, and that may have largely stopped the spread of the virus. But there’s a gigantic outbreak in New York, and apparently large new ones in various other parts of the East and the Midwest.

    Since we have well over 2,000 deaths, we probably have around 2M or so infected, and much of the country isn’t under lockdown. So I just don’t see why it wouldn’t continue to spread close to exponentially.

    Anyway, just keep an eye on New York. I strongly suspect that within another week or so, the daily deaths there will demonstrate that the optimistic UWash projections make absolutely no sense.
     
    https://www.unz.com/isteve/the-latest/#comment-3802882

    Actually, I think it’s pretty easy to see that the UWash projections for New York don’t make any sense…

    NY has already had almost 900 deaths, so assuming 1%, that implies around 90K infections three weeks ago. The doubling-period was probably 3-6 days before the lockdown, and its hard to say how effective its been in such a dense environment. But I’d expect infections are now well over 1M, and they’re probably continuing to increase, though at a much slower rate.

    1M infections implies 10K deaths in a fully-functioning heath system. But it also generates perhaps 200K hospitalizations, almost certainly enough to crash the local health system. Once the health system crashes, we’re looking at 50K deaths. So I think something like 50K deaths in NY is already “baked into the cake” even if new infections went to zero tomorrow.

    Meanwhile, the UWash people predict *total* NY deaths at 10K to late summer. How does this make any sense?

    Maybe that French miracle drug will cure everyone. Maybe the Venusians will land on earth and save the day. But otherwise I just don’t see how the UWash numbers are plausible.
     
    https://www.unz.com/isteve/the-latest/#comment-3802932

    Ron,

    This study is based upon plugging Wuhan numbers into a model. Crucially, they accept that Wuhan used social distancing to drive the infection rate to zero.

    From the paper:

    [I]t will take time to evaluate whether social distancing adherence is fundamentally different in the US compared to Wuhan.

    Only one location has had a generalized epidemic and has currently brought new cases to 0 or near 0, namely Wuhan.

    http://www.healthdata.org/sites/default/files/files/research_articles/2020/Forecasting%20Covid19%20impact%20on%20hospital%20beds_03262020_2.pdf

  129. To put things into perspective, 100,000 deaths would put the virus in seventh place among the leading causes of death in the US, behind heart disease, cancer, accidents, chronic lower respiratory disease, stroke, and Alzheimer’s. Fauci’s worst-case estimate of 200,000 deaths would put the virus in third place, though far behind heart disease (~650,000) and cancer (~600,000).

    • Replies: @Kaz
    To think we spent trillions on this when we could have made serious dents in those top killers..
    , @Thomas
    If the health care system gets overwhelmed by this pandemic, you can bet your ass that the death rate from all causes is going to shoot through the roof. Good luck getting help if you have a heart attack, or a stroke, or an accident, or your child chokes on a marble, when the hospitals, doctors, nurses, and EMTs are swamped with COVID-19 cases.
  130. @JohnnyWalker123
    Fox News host Judge Jeanine Pirro's news segment started late. When she finally made it on air, she appeared to be drunk.

    https://twitter.com/johnteti/status/1244108635225100289

    https://twitter.com/skolanach/status/1244090296322772992

    At one point a heavily inebriated Judge Jeanine is slowly nodding off while her guest talks. A quick-thinking producer gets her off screen by throwing up a graphic of “mental health tips.” The first tip is “AVOID NAPS”!!!! pic.twitter.com/h16JkzldrH

    Think of how much more enjoyable the show would be if she slept through the whole thing.

  131. @Ron Unz

    I share your pessimism, but maybe there is reason to be hopeful. I’m in Washington state, and people are sick and dying in my neighborhood, but there has been a very noticeable change in behavior over the last week.
     
    Sure, as far as I can tell things are going pretty well in California, especially in the Silicon Valley area that I can best judge. We led the country into lock-downs almost two weeks ago, and people seem to be complying well enough that I'd hope the spread of the virus has been largely halted.

    So far CA has had 121 deaths which suggests there were around 12K infections three weeks ago. But with the early total lock-down, I'd hope the current figure is still less than 40K. That's low enough that we probably won't crash the local health system. I'm sure infections will still continue to grow and Californians will die, but the UWash estimate of 6K California deaths seems pretty plausible, perhaps even a little pessimistic.

    A couple of days ago, the papers reported some local health officials projecting 2K deaths in my own Santa Clara county, but I think that's far too high. We've had 25 deaths so far, which implies 2500 infections three weeks ago. But we also had the earliest lock-down, so I'd hope we're around 5K infections now, and perhaps may escape with just a few hundred total deaths. Considering that last month we were the American epicenter of the disease, I'm feeling pretty good about things.

    Having competent people in charge really makes all the difference during a deadly epidemic.

    It may be because in the west it’s more common for people to live in well-separated houses, rather than living on top of one another in apartment blocks, as is common in the large cities of the east coast.

    I think that may be why we’re having a relatively good time of it in Australia, where people still mostly live in houses.

    Of course, the statistics from east Asia – Japan, Korea, Taiwan – where they do live on top of one another, are inconsistent with this hypothesis, but there are other factors over there that help to mitigate the spread (mask wearing, social obedience, less interpersonal touching, an attitude of extreme prejudice towards these outbreaks).

  132. @Jack D
    Just as another data point here in the "we're all gonna die" panic, I just heard from my sister who lives in the vicinity of Naples, FL (at least in the winter). About a week ago she lost her sense of taste and smell, which she had heard was a symptom of the virus so after calling the state hotline she was instructed to go to an urgent care center where she was tested and (6 days later) confirmed to be positive for the virus. Afterward, she developed mild cold-like symptoms for a few days - a slight fever, slight "under the weather'" tired feeling, but now these symptoms are fading away and she feels almost back to normal. She sounded fine on the phone, not short of breath or anything like that. She is, BTW, over 70 and somewhat overweight but otherwise in reasonably good health - not a smoker, etc.

    who lives in the vicinity of Naples, FL

    vedi Napoli e poi muori

  133. @AnotherDad

    • You are your safest sex partner. Masturbation will not spread COVID-19, especially if you
    wash your hands (and any sex toys) with soap and water for at least 20 seconds before
    and after sex.
    • The next safest partner is someone you live with. Having close contact — including sex
    — with only a small circle of people helps prevent spreading COVID-19. Have sex only
    with consenting partners.

    • You should avoid close contact — including sex — with anyone outside your household.
    If you do have sex with others, have as few partners as possible.
     
    Wa, wa, wa ... it's just such a terrible burden to limit yourself to one partner. How can we ask people to do it? (I guessing this is in there for the queers.) Celibacy? LOL.

    Nothing--not even pandemic--should stop the left's most important value after ramming "diversity" down our throats--i.e. promiscuity and trashing the traditional family.

    “Mr. President, we must not allow a Mineshaft gap!”

  134. @YetAnotherAnon
    Steve, did you pick up on the comment about Belgium throwing away six million (!) masks because they were past the use date, but not replacing them?

    https://www.lemonde.fr/international/article/2020/03/25/la-belgique-toujours-en-manque-de-masques-possedait-un-stock-important-mais-l-a-detruit_6034437_3210.html

    I noticed the pic of the Belgian Health Minister - if she's not got a BMI of 40 (making her vulnerable to coronachan at any age) she must be very close.

    https://img.lemde.fr/2020/03/20/0/0/5019/3346/688/0/60/0/d7889cc_5416952-01-06.jpg
  135. @Ron Unz

    I share your pessimism, but maybe there is reason to be hopeful. I’m in Washington state, and people are sick and dying in my neighborhood, but there has been a very noticeable change in behavior over the last week.
     
    Sure, as far as I can tell things are going pretty well in California, especially in the Silicon Valley area that I can best judge. We led the country into lock-downs almost two weeks ago, and people seem to be complying well enough that I'd hope the spread of the virus has been largely halted.

    So far CA has had 121 deaths which suggests there were around 12K infections three weeks ago. But with the early total lock-down, I'd hope the current figure is still less than 40K. That's low enough that we probably won't crash the local health system. I'm sure infections will still continue to grow and Californians will die, but the UWash estimate of 6K California deaths seems pretty plausible, perhaps even a little pessimistic.

    A couple of days ago, the papers reported some local health officials projecting 2K deaths in my own Santa Clara county, but I think that's far too high. We've had 25 deaths so far, which implies 2500 infections three weeks ago. But we also had the earliest lock-down, so I'd hope we're around 5K infections now, and perhaps may escape with just a few hundred total deaths. Considering that last month we were the American epicenter of the disease, I'm feeling pretty good about things.

    Having competent people in charge really makes all the difference during a deadly epidemic.

    Having competent people in charge really makes all the difference during a deadly epidemic.

    I don’t know how competent Newsom is but he does seem to be a hell of a lot better than Cuomo. How much of the shut down was due to Silicon Valley companies pressuring Newsom to act? Those companies video conference daily and send their people to Asia weekly to monitor their factories, not to mention all the Chinese-Americans with family still in China that live in San Jose/the Bay area. American relatives of people in China were buying up all the masks in sight to ship to China weeks all before San Jose initiated the first shut down. The deaths in Kirkland, Washington gave even more impetus to act early. The west coast as a whole was out front on this because of their close ties to Asia.

    • Replies: @Ron Unz

    I don’t know how competent Newsom is but he does seem to be a hell of a lot better than Cuomo.
     
    Well, here's what I said about Newsom a couple of days ago:

    Frankly, I’ve never thought much of Gov. Gavin Newsom, who’s always struck me as an empty suit. But the local medical experts went to him and said that unless he locked down the state, probably 25M Californians would get infected in the next couple of months, and maybe a million of them would die.

    So Gov. Newson said “Gee, it would make me look kind of bad on TV if a million Californians died in the next couple of months, so maybe I should lock down the state,” and that’s what he did. And as far as I can tell, all the business leaders and union leaders and everyone else agreed that probably avoiding a million deaths in California was a pretty good idea. Frankly, I haven’t come across a single significant critic of the lock-down.

    Remember, I live in Santa Clara county, which was the national epicenter of the Coronavirus epidemic a couple of weeks ago. Now, the spread of the disease seems to have been almost halted, though obviously there’s a lag in deaths as infected people expire. If the local government hadn’t done the sensible thing, we might be ahead of NYC by now, maybe even up with Northern Italy.
     
    https://www.unz.com/isteve/how-long-to-shut-down-lets-procrastinate-on-making-that-decision/#comment-3797074

    How much of the shut down was due to Silicon Valley companies pressuring Newsom to act? Those companies video conference daily and send their people to Asia weekly to monitor their factories, not to mention all the Chinese-Americans with family still in China that live in San Jose/the Bay area...The west coast as a whole was out front on this because of their close ties to Asia.
     
    Yes, I'm sure those were important contributing factors. But as far as I can tell, it most mostly just the local government health offiicials.
  136. @ic1000
    I re-read the paper. Murray does consider infection rate of the general population. Page 2:

    [Other published models] generally suggest that given current estimates of [R], 25% to 70% of the population will eventually become infected. Based on reported case-fatality rates, these projections imply that there would be millions of deaths in the United States due to COVID-19. However, individual behavioral responses and government-mandated social distancing (school closures, non-essential service closures, and shelter-in-place orders) can dramatically influence the course of the epidemic. In Wuhan, strict social distancing was instituted on January 23, 2020, and by the time new infections reached 1 or fewer a day (March 15, 2020), the confirmed proportion of the population infected was less than 0.5%.
     
    Page 6 (emphasis added):

    This study has generated the first set of estimates of predicted health service utilization and deaths due to COVID-19 by day for the next 4 months for all US states, assuming that social distancing efforts will continue throughout the epidemic.
     
    It's unfortunate that Murray doesn't add a figure that explicitly shows the projected infection rate; my interpretation is that it remains at Wuhan-like levels (<0.5%) throughout. So, highly effective social-distancing for the duration of the epidemic is the key to the low death numbers, since they follow from low infection numbers. Notably, Murray does not stratify the population by compliance to containment measures. As best I can tell, the government decrees, and the model's obedient population uniformly obeys.

    Since this is a short-term study of the next 4 months only, what-happens-next is not explored. The implication is that Singapore/South Korea style contact tracing would be implemented everywhere by the time containment measures are lifted. International travel would have to be severely restricted and accompanied by screening and quarantines. In this way, the virus would be kept at bay until a vaccine is available. Or it will follow the SARS/MERS path, and be eliminated entirely.

    So it seems that Murray's model is a granular look at the next four months under a successful implementation of Cochran/Pueyo "Nuke the Curve" policies.

    deCode in Iceland has estimates from random sampling of 0.68-1% of Icelanders already infected 2 weeks ago.

  137. @Inquiring Mind
    Infectious diseases are give place names (such Lyme Disease after the town of Old Lyme, Connecticut) except in response to political exigencies.

    The Plague of Justinian, however, was named after a political leader/ruler.

    I propose that this illness, at least for referring to he here in iSteve, be named The Plague of Xi Jinping.

    I propose that this illness, at least for referring to he here in iSteve, be named The Plague of Xi Jinping.

    Tut tut! I pooh-pooh this notion! Too absurd!

    • Replies: @Kyle
    The term is “oh bother.”
  138. @Jack D
    Just as another data point here in the "we're all gonna die" panic, I just heard from my sister who lives in the vicinity of Naples, FL (at least in the winter). About a week ago she lost her sense of taste and smell, which she had heard was a symptom of the virus so after calling the state hotline she was instructed to go to an urgent care center where she was tested and (6 days later) confirmed to be positive for the virus. Afterward, she developed mild cold-like symptoms for a few days - a slight fever, slight "under the weather'" tired feeling, but now these symptoms are fading away and she feels almost back to normal. She sounded fine on the phone, not short of breath or anything like that. She is, BTW, over 70 and somewhat overweight but otherwise in reasonably good health - not a smoker, etc.

    my sister who lives in the vicinity of Naples, FL

    Who bags her groceries? Seriously, that’s been a perennial problem there.

    Are they all delivered now? Imagine a 40-mile commute from Immokalee, followed by a shift of driving food around, and a commute home.

  139. @El Dato

    But maybe there’s a silver lining –once it becomes apparent that the response to COVID-19 was a shocking over-reaction
     
    But you don't have data on the counterfactual "done nothing" scenario.

    That's the whole problem.

    Africa, many parts of Asia, I think even some European countries are doing pretty much nothing.

  140. @Mike_from_SGV
    There is a lot they're not telling us. They seem to want to maximize general panic. This is why I haven't done any panic selling of stocks. Deaths of unhealthy 80-year-olds is a tragedy for the families, no question, but I can't see it being a huge long-term economic hit, unlike trillions of bad loans, or an infrastructure-destroying war. Short-term, it is a screwover of young people.

    Short-term, it is a screwover of young people.

    American youth have been disrespecting their elders for a century or more now. The elders get their revenge by tipping the scales in their favor.

    The kids may have the megaphone, but the old folks have the cash register.

  141. @prosa123
    To put things into perspective, 100,000 deaths would put the virus in seventh place among the leading causes of death in the US, behind heart disease, cancer, accidents, chronic lower respiratory disease, stroke, and Alzheimer's. Fauci's worst-case estimate of 200,000 deaths would put the virus in third place, though far behind heart disease (~650,000) and cancer (~600,000).

    To think we spent trillions on this when we could have made serious dents in those top killers..

  142. Why you do me like that Steve ?

    You know :

  143. @prosa123
    What are the demographics of the dead in the US?
    Are they all old, sick people?


    Yesterday NYC released some demographic information on its deaths. Three-quarters age 75 or older, 97% with at least one other major health condition. Pretty much in line with Spain and Italy.

    In the old days, pneumonia was called “The Old Man’s Friend” (old being anyone over 70) because it would rescue him from the vale of loneliness and suffering and mental loss in which many of the elderly used to dwell (and many still do) and bring him to a higher plane of existence (but it’s a sin to take matters into your own hands – Catch-22). But now that we “know” that this existence is all you get, no one wants the show to end, as Hibernian said the other day. And as Jonathan said, there are pecuniary interests involved – nursing homes that harvest the pension of the elderly, children living in their houses, etc. and so we must turn the world upside to save them at all costs.

  144. @El Dato

    But maybe there’s a silver lining –once it becomes apparent that the response to COVID-19 was a shocking over-reaction
     
    But you don't have data on the counterfactual "done nothing" scenario.

    That's the whole problem.

    I agree. Reading these comments about the “low death rate” on this site are scary. Is this really a tribe I want to be associated with? Some of these people against the lockdown sound like they are in a death cult with the Koch brothers. “Must sacrifice the weak for GDP numbers.”

    • Agree: Thomas
    • Replies: @Robert Dolan
    Anthony Fauci published a paper in the New England Journal of Medicine that said that Covid was like a severe flu and that the death rate would be the same as the flu, at 0.1%

    In 2018 the flu killed 80K people.

    TB kills 1.7 million people yearly and nobody cares.

    AIDS kills 2 million, not a huge concern anymore.

    Malaria kills one million, you never hear about it.

    The open southern border brought back cholera, malaria, polio, leprosy, bubonic plague, chickenpox, smallpox, typhus, MERSA, Zika, and INCURABLE ANTIBIOTIC RESISTANT TB. You never hear a peep about this. We had eradicated most of those diseases. I spoke to a high level medical official in CA, and she admitted that the antibiotic resistant TB has been here for quite some time. People have no idea.

    , @Thomas
    I've been struggling to understand why people who are prepared to throw the sick and old under the bus for the sake of the economy don't feel the same way about being replaced by cheaper or more productive foreigners for the same reason, the way the Kochites and their fellow travelers want. (At least, I would assume most readers and commenters on this particular blog are opposed to that latter proposal.) Not very "citizenist" of them. Just a case of not their ox getting gored (for now)?
    , @Intelligent Dasein
    It's not GDP, you moron. These are our livelihoods we're talking about. We're trying to pay our bills, feed our families, and produce the things that everybody needs. The economy is not something abstract, it's how we all survive.
    , @John Burns, Gettysburg Partisan
    You live in a country that calls abortion essential and church non-essential.

    Don't talk to me about GDP, pal. The above is a real fact, and it's all you need to know about the seriousness and morality of our leadership.
  145. @anonguy
    Also as a PSA:

    Fauci, the six president beltway insider as much personally responsible for current US fiasco struggling to reposition himself, reminded us yesterday that, as I pointed out.

    THERE CURRENTLY IS NO EVIDENCE THAT ONE GAINS IMMUNITY TO CORONAVIRUS

    He cheerfully and optimistically opined that he would bet anything that there would be, although whether it would be one month or permanent, he didn't specify, so that was kind of weaselly, most laymen assume immunity means 100% and forever, whereas it means something else to med researchers.

    One thing I'll credit the guy is he won't tell a flat out lie and he's actually not doing the fail by omission or failure to be forthright.

    He's been pretty good about blurting out the truth, unlike the past thirty years, who ever heard of the guy, but obviously central to US public health stuff and all the games there.

    I remember Fauci from the era of AIDS panic. Everything about that was and remains sketchy. BTW Fauci is 79, repeat 79 years old.

    • Replies: @anonguy
    That was another point of mine, 79. WTF?

    And involvement with AIDs going back to the beginning.

    He's been an operator since Reagan administration and now is making sure that Redfield at CDC gets the blame for blowing the month of February in this thing.

    Poor Redfield, this is his first gov. admin job, and only since 2018, he isn't seeing the truck that is currently hitting him.

    Oh well, I figure maybe Fauci may do some good here with coronavirus. He's clever enough and maybe feels like redeeming himself for some of what he has done "serving under six presidents".

    Charismatic guy, so maybe he'll use that to the nation's advantage rather than his own in this case.
    , @Mr McKenna
    He looks pretty good for 79. I was amazed to see his name in the news again a few months ago. Also amazing is how old the leadership (and proposed leadership) of this country is today. Then again, the alternatives seem to be relative lightweights like Rubio and Buttigieg.
  146. @Achmed E. Newman
    When's the last time I (almost) agreed with you, Truth? '18, '17?

    ;-}

    You know you’re my Boy.

  147. @Whiskey
    Ron and Steve --

    You seem to believe the media, which are proven liars and whores. Indeed most of the media is made up of professional whores, pretty women hired on the basis of having sex with powerful men like their bosses, and sleeping with sources. The media is constitutionally unable to tell the truth.

    Italy is a shambolic pretend country. Doctors predictably are just writing Kung Flu for cause of death of people with cancer, etc. in their 80s. Same with Spain -- its a mess. France had something like 100,000 elderly die in a HEAT WAVE a few years back.

    Japan has had very few fatalities. Same with the Diamond Princess, or LA. Same with Orange County.

    Orange County has a very sizeable Chinese presence, and lots of travel back and forth to China during the virus outbreak. Where are all the deaths, and where are all the deaths of the homeless in Orange County and LA County.

    Almost without a doubt, the virus was here in LA and Orange counties in January. Why have we not seen massive deaths?

    First confirmed OC case was 1/26
    https://abc7.com/5879603/

  148. @reactionry
    [sorry about the length of the following - clicking on "more" in two locations, apparently voiding both]

    OT

    A very thin silver lining: Turned on the tube (OK - there's no CRT) and within a few seconds genocidal totalitarian monster Governor Cuomo (who might be the Democrat nominee for Prez) misused the word "acutely" as in "acutely ill." "Very" or "severely" or other words would have been better. DJT might have been castigated for this. I don't think we have much information on the rapidity of onset of severe illness in those requiring hospitalization.

    He also said " But, New York is going to have what it needs and no one is going to attack New York unfairly and no one is going to deprive New York of what it needs." (already on the web "five minutes" ago - https://www.theguardian.com/world/live/2020/mar/29/coronavirus-us-live-new-york-cases-quarantine-news-updates-trump)
    Yep - message to Flyover Country: Gimme all your PPE and ventilators- it's an offer you can't refuse. He is absolutely totalitarian and absolutely corrupt.

    The Bad News: Governor Cuomo is looking "Presidential" in his broadcasts and comes across as somewhat more intelligent than President DJT. He gave what seemed to a reasonably intelligent, (though rambling - corrected "increase" to "rate of increase") take on the uncertainty regarding the validity of various models of projection. "Conspiracy theorists" probably got some jollies with his mention of a model from McKinsey Advisors. The governor's answers to questions of the form "Why didn't you do this or that sooner" were along the lines of "We did this or that sooner than others." That mirrors some of the answers given by the President and his defenders.


    In general, critics of the President and defenders of the Governor and his ilk are allowing the latter expressions of uncertainty while demanding "a clear plan of action" and "hope" from the President. As noted by others DJT is being criticized for both under reacting and over reacting (causing "panic"). Comments by Pelosi (third in line for Prez?!?) have been absolutely malicious and at least arguably mostly false.

    Enough of these mostly unedited comments on the fly for now.

    “Yep – message to Flyover Country: Gimme all your PPE and ventilators- it’s an offer you can’t refuse. He is absolutely totalitarian and absolutely corrupt.”

    I would have LMAO had POTUS implemented a lock down of NY with Bradley IFVs: Red America giving Blue America the finger by blocking their tollways.

  149. @Known Fact
    She must be working from home

    Good point

  150. @AnonAnon

    Having competent people in charge really makes all the difference during a deadly epidemic.
     
    I don't know how competent Newsom is but he does seem to be a hell of a lot better than Cuomo. How much of the shut down was due to Silicon Valley companies pressuring Newsom to act? Those companies video conference daily and send their people to Asia weekly to monitor their factories, not to mention all the Chinese-Americans with family still in China that live in San Jose/the Bay area. American relatives of people in China were buying up all the masks in sight to ship to China weeks all before San Jose initiated the first shut down. The deaths in Kirkland, Washington gave even more impetus to act early. The west coast as a whole was out front on this because of their close ties to Asia.

    I don’t know how competent Newsom is but he does seem to be a hell of a lot better than Cuomo.

    Well, here’s what I said about Newsom a couple of days ago:

    Frankly, I’ve never thought much of Gov. Gavin Newsom, who’s always struck me as an empty suit. But the local medical experts went to him and said that unless he locked down the state, probably 25M Californians would get infected in the next couple of months, and maybe a million of them would die.

    So Gov. Newson said “Gee, it would make me look kind of bad on TV if a million Californians died in the next couple of months, so maybe I should lock down the state,” and that’s what he did. And as far as I can tell, all the business leaders and union leaders and everyone else agreed that probably avoiding a million deaths in California was a pretty good idea. Frankly, I haven’t come across a single significant critic of the lock-down.

    Remember, I live in Santa Clara county, which was the national epicenter of the Coronavirus epidemic a couple of weeks ago. Now, the spread of the disease seems to have been almost halted, though obviously there’s a lag in deaths as infected people expire. If the local government hadn’t done the sensible thing, we might be ahead of NYC by now, maybe even up with Northern Italy.

    https://www.unz.com/isteve/how-long-to-shut-down-lets-procrastinate-on-making-that-decision/#comment-3797074

    How much of the shut down was due to Silicon Valley companies pressuring Newsom to act? Those companies video conference daily and send their people to Asia weekly to monitor their factories, not to mention all the Chinese-Americans with family still in China that live in San Jose/the Bay area…The west coast as a whole was out front on this because of their close ties to Asia.

    Yes, I’m sure those were important contributing factors. But as far as I can tell, it most mostly just the local government health offiicials.

    • Replies: @indocon
    Gavin is setting himself up for 2024 at this point. If CA does stay low on total infections list, he will come out of this looking pretty good.

    Secretly he is rooting for Trump this year also.
  151. @Anon
    Have read about a "far UVC" purple light with a 220 nm wavelength that doesnt penetrate the skin enough to cause skin cancers associated with UV purple light, but should still kill viruses. Its a Columbia University link if anyone wants to websearch it. Dont know about the eyesight angle here though.

    Thinking of ways we could decontaminate the most oft-touched surfaces and spaces effectively. Store's entrance Door handles, I would think, and cashier areas, perhaps could benefit from some sort of directed spray lighting that constantly disinfects?

    With spring arriving, we could just leave store doors open during open hours, without wasting too much heat or air conditioning.

    • Replies: @Buzz Mohawk
    That should help shoplifters too. Might as well, now that they don't get arrested anymore.

    In fact, now that the government is handing out free money (more than just to the usual folks) why don't we just call it a free-for-all on everything? Everything free!

  152. @Steve Sailer
    With spring arriving, we could just leave store doors open during open hours, without wasting too much heat or air conditioning.

    That should help shoplifters too. Might as well, now that they don’t get arrested anymore.

    In fact, now that the government is handing out free money (more than just to the usual folks) why don’t we just call it a free-for-all on everything? Everything free!

  153. @Ron Unz

    Unz, what do you make of other hotspots emerging such as LA, Chicago, New Orleans.

    Any predictions?

    So you don’t think LA will become another NY?
     
    Well, I haven't been following LA as closely as my own Santa Clara county, but it only has 32 deaths so far, suggesting 32K infections three weeks ago. It went into lock-down a day or two after my own area, so I'd hope the spread of the infection was drastically reduced at that point. Steve can certainly provide a better picture of whether LA people are complying or not. I'd hope it doesn't do too much worse than the rest of CA.

    Meanwhile, the situation in many of those places around the US seems awful, and I'd expect some of them to more or less follow the NY trajectory, with absolutely massive fatalities.

    Hey Ron , you have a degree in Physics right ? Is it true that every particle has it’s charge , mass , and place and function ? Is mankind exempt from the fundamental laws of nature ? I suspect that we are not . What do you say ?

  154. @Anonymous

    So, I’m pretty sceptical about large cities like New York or Washington peaking in June.
     
    Meaning you believe it will peak much earlier? What is your estimate?

    It will peak in july and it’s going to be very nasty with the heat and humidity. Nurses and doctors are going to die in droves.

    • Replies: @Je Suis Omar Mateen
    "It will peak in july and it’s going to be very nasty with the heat and humidity."

    I assume you're talking about summertime electric bills, because our esteamed Dr. Dan, MD, assures us humidifiers stop CoronaExtraCold. Heh heh.
  155. @Anon
    Have read about a "far UVC" purple light with a 220 nm wavelength that doesnt penetrate the skin enough to cause skin cancers associated with UV purple light, but should still kill viruses. Its a Columbia University link if anyone wants to websearch it. Dont know about the eyesight angle here though.

    Thinking of ways we could decontaminate the most oft-touched surfaces and spaces effectively. Store's entrance Door handles, I would think, and cashier areas, perhaps could benefit from some sort of directed spray lighting that constantly disinfects?

    I’m thinking that within a few years every building might have some kind of small decontamination chamber or device at each entrance — emitting some spray, cleansing light rays or radiation

    • Replies: @James Speaks
    Does anybody have a list of great apocalyptic flicks I can stream?
  156. @Bardon Kaldian
    Why all the fuss? It's just a flu....

    https://www.timesofisrael.com/mom-im-afraid-seriously-ill-virus-patient-22-said-before-being-sedated/

    The mother of a seriously ill 22-year-old coronavirus patient, whose condition rapidly deteriorated to the point where doctors put him on a ventilator, told media Sunday that her son had spoken of his fears before being tranquilized.

    The man, who has not been named in media reports, had no preexisting medical issues when he was diagnosed with COVID-19, the disease caused by the new coronavirus.
    .........................................
    A resident of the southern port city of Ashdod, he was hospitalized last Wednesday and by the following day was no longer able to stand or take a shower, his mother told the Ynet news site.
    .........................................................................
    By Sunday morning, due to his rapidly deteriorating condition and increasing difficulty breathing, doctors at the Samson Assuta Ashdod University Hospital made the decision to sedate him and hook him up to a ventilator.

    Also from your article:

    The mother explained that her son had recently been in the US with two friends, touring in Miami and then Las Vegas.

    Now, it is possible that they were on a holistic, locavore paleo diet yoga retreat.

    However, it is far, far more likely that they were getting minimal sleep, eating horribly unhealthy fried foods, drinking like fish, and engaging in promiscuous, possibly deviant sexual activity.

    That would leave their immune systems were a wreck by the time they got on a plane back to Israel under the assumption they could just sleep it off on the long haul.

  157. @FloridaFan
    I agree. Reading these comments about the "low death rate" on this site are scary. Is this really a tribe I want to be associated with? Some of these people against the lockdown sound like they are in a death cult with the Koch brothers. "Must sacrifice the weak for GDP numbers."

    Anthony Fauci published a paper in the New England Journal of Medicine that said that Covid was like a severe flu and that the death rate would be the same as the flu, at 0.1%

    In 2018 the flu killed 80K people.

    TB kills 1.7 million people yearly and nobody cares.

    AIDS kills 2 million, not a huge concern anymore.

    Malaria kills one million, you never hear about it.

    The open southern border brought back cholera, malaria, polio, leprosy, bubonic plague, chickenpox, smallpox, typhus, MERSA, Zika, and INCURABLE ANTIBIOTIC RESISTANT TB. You never hear a peep about this. We had eradicated most of those diseases. I spoke to a high level medical official in CA, and she admitted that the antibiotic resistant TB has been here for quite some time. People have no idea.

    • Replies: @Anonymous
    Are your numbers for the United States or worldwide?
    , @Marty
    Total AIDS deaths since 1981: 658,000.
    , @eD
    "Anthony Fauci published a paper in the New England Journal of Medicine that said that Covid was like a severe flu and that the death rate would be the same as the flu, at 0.1%"

    I saw this and I was going to post this. While the lockdowns have been ramping up, the medical establishment has been quietly walking back some of their wilder claims.

    Here is the New England Journal of Medicine article:

    https://www.nejm.org/doi/full/10.1056/NEJMe2002387

    Note that I am now reading elsewhere that the article is being scrubbed from the internet, but if that is the case and someone posts it, I'll post the extract.
  158. @Sebastian Hawks
    The "car culture" hipsters and environmental wackos love to castigate sure comes in handy when you can be alone in your car safe from infection as opposed to being packed on public transport like sardines.

    The “car culture” hipsters and environmental wackos love to castigate sure comes in handy when you can be alone in your car safe from infection as opposed to being packed on public transport like sardines.

    You are safer on the A train in the midst of this pandemic than on almost any highway in the land– or world. This virus has a lot of catching up to do:

    https://www.nsc.org/road-safety/safety-topics/fatality-estimates

    • Replies: @Pontius
    https://www.zerohedge.com/health/covid-19-saving-lives

    Fewer people have died this year than last due to the pandemic lockdown.
  159. @CJ
    I remember Fauci from the era of AIDS panic. Everything about that was and remains sketchy. BTW Fauci is 79, repeat 79 years old.

    That was another point of mine, 79. WTF?

    And involvement with AIDs going back to the beginning.

    He’s been an operator since Reagan administration and now is making sure that Redfield at CDC gets the blame for blowing the month of February in this thing.

    Poor Redfield, this is his first gov. admin job, and only since 2018, he isn’t seeing the truck that is currently hitting him.

    Oh well, I figure maybe Fauci may do some good here with coronavirus. He’s clever enough and maybe feels like redeeming himself for some of what he has done “serving under six presidents”.

    Charismatic guy, so maybe he’ll use that to the nation’s advantage rather than his own in this case.

    • Replies: @JerseyJeffersonian
    Unlikely. Once a narcissist, always a narcissist
  160. @As
    Quarantine Queens was a great idea.

    The medical establishment makes no sense.

    I am under lockdown in the county I live in. My state has 2000 cases.

    But quarantining New York City and the to state area is out of the question.

    Cuomo declared that any attempt by Trump to quarantine the tri-state area was ‘tantamount to a declaration of war’. What? I thought we did declare war on this thing. But no, Cuomo specifically threatened “Civil War” if we tried to stop NYC-area denizens from fanning out across the country spreading coron.

    Trump should have gone to the mat with Cuomo over this. What’s he afraid of, losing tri-state votes? Now the MSM will be playing this as yet another of Trump’s failures to keep the country safe.

    https://www.theblaze.com/news/regional_quarantine_civil_war_cuomo

    “If you start walling off areas all across the country it would just be totally bizarre, counter-productive, anti-American, anti-social,” Cuomo said.

    “It makes absolutely no sense and I don’t think any serious governmental personality or professional would support it,” he added.

    Build bridges, not walls! We need a ‘Corona-Bridge’ meme.

    • Replies: @Travis
    I agree, Trump should have quarantined New York to keep Americans safe. Most Governors would have fully supported this action. This would have been applauded by red state Americans and would have shown Trump leading the fight to contain the epidemic.

    Politically it would have been a huge win for Trump , which is why the media was so opposed to the quarantine of New York , while the media fully supported Cuomo when he sent troops to quarantine New Rochelle a few weeks ago.
  161. @CJ
    I remember Fauci from the era of AIDS panic. Everything about that was and remains sketchy. BTW Fauci is 79, repeat 79 years old.

    He looks pretty good for 79. I was amazed to see his name in the news again a few months ago. Also amazing is how old the leadership (and proposed leadership) of this country is today. Then again, the alternatives seem to be relative lightweights like Rubio and Buttigieg.

  162. @anon
    I propose that this illness, at least for referring to he here in iSteve, be named The Plague of Xi Jinping.

    Tut tut! I pooh-pooh this notion! Too absurd!

    https://images.tmz.com/2017/07/18/0718-chinese-president-xi-jinping-winnie-getty-everett-3.jpg

    The term is “oh bother.”

  163. @Bill Jones
    In two years time the number of deaths by suicide from the economically devastated will be found (but not broadly reported) to far exceed those killed by the Chinese Flu.

    In two years time the number of deaths by suicide from the economically devastated will be found (but not broadly reported) to far exceed those killed by the Chinese Flu.

    There are about 48,000 suicides a year in the United States. This disease is projected to kill 100,000-200,000 even with stringent isolation and could kill 1-2 million if we don’t.

  164. Anonymous[270] • Disclaimer says:
    @AnotherDad


    These folks are available for new infections once the measures are relaxed and they again go to weddings, etc.
     
    Way off topic, but am i the only one who is jaded on "weddings" now?

    When young women were chaste and weddings celebrated "sacrificing a virgin", the start of conjugal relations, and ergo of family, this was a legitimate and worthy community event

    Now, with young women, ticking through their serial "boyfriends" and then usually sleeping with and finally living with the poor sap for at least a year or two ... the whole "wedding" thing just strikes me as typical female attention whoring. "Oh, look at me i got--insert name of poor sap here--to put a ring on it." Gag.

    I'm a married-with-children guy and a big believer in traditional family, the bedrock of nation and civilization. And I can't see any reason to humor this attention whoring for 90% of women today. Just go to the court house and get your legal paperwork. When you've made a baby then we'll offer congratulations. When you've made and raised three or four babies into fine young adults, then 25 years on we can all have a party and laud you as solid citizens. (But by then, you'll, of course, know it is not the celebrating or attention but the doing of it--the building of family, that is all that matters.)

    It’s difficult to believe anyone who hates women as much as you do is married or has ever had a relationship with a woman.

    Your pornographic obsession with what you wrongly believe to be the sex lives of people you don’t know and will never meet is unseemly, perverted, pornographic and weird. You must spend a lot of time pleasuring yourself as you think of those tens of millions of promiscuous sluts out there. If you were married, you wouldn’t be thinking about strangers sex lives all the time. You’d be thinking about your wife.

    You must believe every word in the National Enquirer.

    • Replies: @Autochthon

    Your pornographic obsession...is...pornographic....
     
    tau·tol·o·gy tôˈtäləjē (from Greek ταυτολογία ) noun: a statement that is true by necessity or by virtue of its logical form; the saying of the same thing twice in different words, generally considered to be a fault of style (e.g., "They arrived one after the other in succession.")
    , @Hippopotamusdrome
    Wow...
    https://gifimage.net/wp-content/uploads/2017/08/triggered-meme-gif-3.gif
    , @YetAnotherAnon
    "If you were married, ... you’d be thinking about your wife."

    a) the author is obviously not male. Alden has a sister?

    b) I didn't see any obsession with strangers' sex lives, just an honest acknowledgement that The Way We Live Now is very different from the way our great grandparents lived.

    (I can't talk, big though relatively inexpensive wedding, bride in white, we'd been living together 6 months)

  165. @FloridaFan
    I agree. Reading these comments about the "low death rate" on this site are scary. Is this really a tribe I want to be associated with? Some of these people against the lockdown sound like they are in a death cult with the Koch brothers. "Must sacrifice the weak for GDP numbers."

    I’ve been struggling to understand why people who are prepared to throw the sick and old under the bus for the sake of the economy don’t feel the same way about being replaced by cheaper or more productive foreigners for the same reason, the way the Kochites and their fellow travelers want. (At least, I would assume most readers and commenters on this particular blog are opposed to that latter proposal.) Not very “citizenist” of them. Just a case of not their ox getting gored (for now)?

    • Replies: @Sam Haysom
    I’m confused the replacement occurred and is occurring. I’m a tit for tat guy myself. Boomers start building a border wall and then maybe we can talk about some slight mitigation efforts. My generation baby.
  166. Italy may have passed their peak.

    If that is the case, then peak death in NYC by mid-April is not unreasonable. The question is whether the rest is the US will make up the difference.

    • Replies: @Keypusher
    Per worldometer cases were down in Italy, Spain, Germany, France, and the UK today; deaths were down everywhere except Germany (but still low). It’s just one day, but that was good to see,
  167. Anonymous[270] • Disclaimer says:
    @Reg Cæsar

    I noticed the pic of the Belgian Health Minister – if she’s not got a BMI of 40
     
    That's a lot of waffles and sprouts!

    How else would her figure walloon to such a magnitude? I got a phlegmish reaction myself just looking at her. Excuse me, I have to run to the waterloo...

    Pardon the sound of flushing. (Oops. That's in the Netherlands.)

    If she’s a normal 5’4 to 5’7 N European woman she’s past 350 going up to 400 pounds.

  168. @anonguy
    That was another point of mine, 79. WTF?

    And involvement with AIDs going back to the beginning.

    He's been an operator since Reagan administration and now is making sure that Redfield at CDC gets the blame for blowing the month of February in this thing.

    Poor Redfield, this is his first gov. admin job, and only since 2018, he isn't seeing the truck that is currently hitting him.

    Oh well, I figure maybe Fauci may do some good here with coronavirus. He's clever enough and maybe feels like redeeming himself for some of what he has done "serving under six presidents".

    Charismatic guy, so maybe he'll use that to the nation's advantage rather than his own in this case.

    Unlikely. Once a narcissist, always a narcissist

    • Replies: @anonguy
    Yeah, one of his priorities early on was getting a glowing puff piece on himself in the New Yorker, I believe it was.

    But nobody is beyond redemption, however unlikely, and beyond that, in this case, his interest aligns best with that of USA. So that he doesn't go down in the retrospective as part of the February Disaster, as it is now being understood, he's positioning himself as a truthteller and, amazingly enough, telling a lot of truth esp. if you listen to the guy carefully.

    Anyhow, we are running what we brung, no other choice at the moment, situation is too fast moving.

  169. @prosa123
    To put things into perspective, 100,000 deaths would put the virus in seventh place among the leading causes of death in the US, behind heart disease, cancer, accidents, chronic lower respiratory disease, stroke, and Alzheimer's. Fauci's worst-case estimate of 200,000 deaths would put the virus in third place, though far behind heart disease (~650,000) and cancer (~600,000).

    If the health care system gets overwhelmed by this pandemic, you can bet your ass that the death rate from all causes is going to shoot through the roof. Good luck getting help if you have a heart attack, or a stroke, or an accident, or your child chokes on a marble, when the hospitals, doctors, nurses, and EMTs are swamped with COVID-19 cases.

    • Replies: @Intelligent Dasein
    This isn't Omaha Beach, dude. Get some perspective.
  170. Anonymous[270] • Disclaimer says:
    @anonguy
    I'd also note that the scattered, anecdotal, and quite possibly outlier, edge cases, that suggest reinfection may be an issue could also be relapses, it is unclear which would explain some of the cases.

    So it could be true that one gains immunity but still be subject to relapses.

    And to Fauci, immunity can mean anywhere between partial and short term on a spectrum to full and forever, unlike american who thinks of it as full and forever or nothing.

    I'm hoping he clarifies that point, I'm guessing that he will have followup questions a lot.

    In terms of surface antigen, SARS and COVID-19 are 96% identical. We know that SARS immunity, judged by antibody titers, lasted at least 2 years. There is absolutely no reason COVID-19 is going to be different.

    https://www.ncbi.nlm.nih.gov/pmc/articles/PMC2851497/

    Among 176 patients who had had severe acute respiratory syndrome (SARS), SARS-specific antibodies were maintained for an average of 2 years, and significant reduction of immunoglobulin G–positive percentage and titers occurred in the third year. Thus, SARS patients might be susceptible to reinfection >3 years after initial exposure.

    • Thanks: ic1000
    • Replies: @anonguy
    So there is an argument for a middling deal, some immunity for a couple of years.

    Actually, /pol has been all over this for a couple of months, but good to see you guys catching up here.

    Anyhow, SARS analagy, not perfect or definitive, but definitely a warm spot on a thermal plot of possible outcomes.

    FWIW, some of the justification for fears about ADE come from SARS vaccine research.

    Apparently, only fragmentary stuff because vaccine effort was abandoned when SARS was eradicated.

    But some indication that the vaccine made people get it worse a second time.

    Fecal transmission was also a big deal in SARS and not understood at the time. Google SARS Amoy garden.

    However, this time around, East Asia has this figured out. Coronavirus has been found 17 days after evactuation of Diamond Princess. And all sorts of stuff documenting how bathrooms, including the air, gets contaminated.

    Over here, you guys are still wondering about why people who eat and share bathrooms together are spreading it like it is this gigantic mystery, scratching your heads.

  171. @Thomas
    If the health care system gets overwhelmed by this pandemic, you can bet your ass that the death rate from all causes is going to shoot through the roof. Good luck getting help if you have a heart attack, or a stroke, or an accident, or your child chokes on a marble, when the hospitals, doctors, nurses, and EMTs are swamped with COVID-19 cases.

    This isn’t Omaha Beach, dude. Get some perspective.

    • Replies: @anon
    Throw some water on him, his hair's on fire.
    , @Thomas

    This isn’t Omaha Beach, dude. Get some perspective.
     
    Right back at you. This has already killed about as many Americans as died on Omaha Beach. We'll be lucky if it doesn't kill as many as died in WWII.
    , @Anonymous

    This isn’t Omaha Beach, dude.
     
    Yes, it isn't. It has a potential to kill 5X more Americans than WWI and WWII combined. This thing hasn't even started in earnest in the USA and we are already about even with Omaha Beach casualties.
  172. @Jack D
    Just as another data point here in the "we're all gonna die" panic, I just heard from my sister who lives in the vicinity of Naples, FL (at least in the winter). About a week ago she lost her sense of taste and smell, which she had heard was a symptom of the virus so after calling the state hotline she was instructed to go to an urgent care center where she was tested and (6 days later) confirmed to be positive for the virus. Afterward, she developed mild cold-like symptoms for a few days - a slight fever, slight "under the weather'" tired feeling, but now these symptoms are fading away and she feels almost back to normal. She sounded fine on the phone, not short of breath or anything like that. She is, BTW, over 70 and somewhat overweight but otherwise in reasonably good health - not a smoker, etc.

    “Just as another data point”

    Jesus Jack, your own sister, just another data point? In other respects, thanks for the enlightening report on her experience. Hope she and hers stay well.

  173. @FloridaFan
    I agree. Reading these comments about the "low death rate" on this site are scary. Is this really a tribe I want to be associated with? Some of these people against the lockdown sound like they are in a death cult with the Koch brothers. "Must sacrifice the weak for GDP numbers."

    It’s not GDP, you moron. These are our livelihoods we’re talking about. We’re trying to pay our bills, feed our families, and produce the things that everybody needs. The economy is not something abstract, it’s how we all survive.

    • Agree: JosephB
  174. @Thomas
    I've been struggling to understand why people who are prepared to throw the sick and old under the bus for the sake of the economy don't feel the same way about being replaced by cheaper or more productive foreigners for the same reason, the way the Kochites and their fellow travelers want. (At least, I would assume most readers and commenters on this particular blog are opposed to that latter proposal.) Not very "citizenist" of them. Just a case of not their ox getting gored (for now)?

    I’m confused the replacement occurred and is occurring. I’m a tit for tat guy myself. Boomers start building a border wall and then maybe we can talk about some slight mitigation efforts. My generation baby.

  175. @anonguy
    California, at least by comparison to other US states/cities, very much got out in front of coronavirus and it is paying off so far.

    Who knows what happens downstream but so far they've avoided the catastrophic onset like Italy or NY, leaving them in good shape for next moves.

    I'm not. a fan of the political leadership in the state but you have to give credit where due and they've been very good once they awoke to the threat.

    FWIW, some people here cant break out of their blue-red framing of everything so they see what California has done as a bad thing.

    Pedos in their cheerios types, which is another first world luxury, like SJWs with their microaggressions.

    Funny how suddenly nobody cares about any of that stuff at least, and blessedly, for the moment. Reality does that to people.

    i dislike what California has done because i don’t believe that it’s necessary and it is also an incredible curtailment of civil rights.

    There are many steps between “do nothing” and what our fearful leaders went with.

    In the past week with the closings of county and state parks and beaches it’s really taking on (or revealing) a punitive tone.

    Also, what’s the next step here? We keep it shut down for months and then what?

    How do you prevent reinfection from other states? or abroad?

    If covid-19 is serious enough that we needed to do all this, we’re still screwed because we’ll be reinfected anyway.

    If the reinfection or resurgence isn’t a concern, then the shutdown was overkill.

    • Replies: @anonguy
    This is definitely a damned if you do, damned if you don't situation.

    Harsh reality, sometimes there is no easy way out. Been a long time since the world faced that problem on the mass scale of coronavirus.

    What do we do when infection is contained and we want to begin relax precautions? Good question, and humanity is feeling its way through it, probably a lot of starts and stops along the way.

    IMO, a lot of the cope put in place in the interim is going to be attractive to people, so don't expect a complete snapback, those days are in rearview mirror.

    In the meantime, we do know the consequences of doing nothing. A first wave of vulnerable cases that breaks healthcare systems, as we've seen in China, Italy, and seems like NYC is on some brink.

    And what comes after that in second waves, or long term consequences or who knows? Walking into that phase with a broken healthcare system doesn't seem prudent.

    So let's get to the controlled during lockdown phase first, it isn't like that is a given. If achievable, it then porvides at least some stability for figuring next moves.

    And a lot of what we have to do after will depend upon what we do now. Again, clearly demonstrated by differing national responses.

  176. According the the SF Chronicle, the peak in new cases of Covid-19 and of deaths both in Califfornia and in the Bay Area was three days ago. They have gone down since.

    https://projects.sfchronicle.com/2020/coronavirus-map/

    • Thanks: danand
  177. @vhrm
    i dislike what California has done because i don't believe that it's necessary and it is also an incredible curtailment of civil rights.

    There are many steps between "do nothing" and what our fearful leaders went with.

    In the past week with the closings of county and state parks and beaches it's really taking on (or revealing) a punitive tone.

    Also, what's the next step here? We keep it shut down for months and then what?

    How do you prevent reinfection from other states? or abroad?

    If covid-19 is serious enough that we needed to do all this, we're still screwed because we'll be reinfected anyway.

    If the reinfection or resurgence isn't a concern, then the shutdown was overkill.

    This is definitely a damned if you do, damned if you don’t situation.

    Harsh reality, sometimes there is no easy way out. Been a long time since the world faced that problem on the mass scale of coronavirus.

    What do we do when infection is contained and we want to begin relax precautions? Good question, and humanity is feeling its way through it, probably a lot of starts and stops along the way.

    IMO, a lot of the cope put in place in the interim is going to be attractive to people, so don’t expect a complete snapback, those days are in rearview mirror.

    In the meantime, we do know the consequences of doing nothing. A first wave of vulnerable cases that breaks healthcare systems, as we’ve seen in China, Italy, and seems like NYC is on some brink.

    And what comes after that in second waves, or long term consequences or who knows? Walking into that phase with a broken healthcare system doesn’t seem prudent.

    So let’s get to the controlled during lockdown phase first, it isn’t like that is a given. If achievable, it then porvides at least some stability for figuring next moves.

    And a lot of what we have to do after will depend upon what we do now. Again, clearly demonstrated by differing national responses.

  178. @Jack D
    Just as another data point here in the "we're all gonna die" panic, I just heard from my sister who lives in the vicinity of Naples, FL (at least in the winter). About a week ago she lost her sense of taste and smell, which she had heard was a symptom of the virus so after calling the state hotline she was instructed to go to an urgent care center where she was tested and (6 days later) confirmed to be positive for the virus. Afterward, she developed mild cold-like symptoms for a few days - a slight fever, slight "under the weather'" tired feeling, but now these symptoms are fading away and she feels almost back to normal. She sounded fine on the phone, not short of breath or anything like that. She is, BTW, over 70 and somewhat overweight but otherwise in reasonably good health - not a smoker, etc.

    Glad to hear your sister is recovering nicely Jack. When i was younger 70-something sounded old and done, but lately i’ve been thinking it’s too young to go.

  179. Anonymous[242] • Disclaimer says:
    @Robert Dolan
    Anthony Fauci published a paper in the New England Journal of Medicine that said that Covid was like a severe flu and that the death rate would be the same as the flu, at 0.1%

    In 2018 the flu killed 80K people.

    TB kills 1.7 million people yearly and nobody cares.

    AIDS kills 2 million, not a huge concern anymore.

    Malaria kills one million, you never hear about it.

    The open southern border brought back cholera, malaria, polio, leprosy, bubonic plague, chickenpox, smallpox, typhus, MERSA, Zika, and INCURABLE ANTIBIOTIC RESISTANT TB. You never hear a peep about this. We had eradicated most of those diseases. I spoke to a high level medical official in CA, and she admitted that the antibiotic resistant TB has been here for quite some time. People have no idea.

    Are your numbers for the United States or worldwide?

  180. @Ron Unz

    I don’t know how competent Newsom is but he does seem to be a hell of a lot better than Cuomo.
     
    Well, here's what I said about Newsom a couple of days ago:

    Frankly, I’ve never thought much of Gov. Gavin Newsom, who’s always struck me as an empty suit. But the local medical experts went to him and said that unless he locked down the state, probably 25M Californians would get infected in the next couple of months, and maybe a million of them would die.

    So Gov. Newson said “Gee, it would make me look kind of bad on TV if a million Californians died in the next couple of months, so maybe I should lock down the state,” and that’s what he did. And as far as I can tell, all the business leaders and union leaders and everyone else agreed that probably avoiding a million deaths in California was a pretty good idea. Frankly, I haven’t come across a single significant critic of the lock-down.

    Remember, I live in Santa Clara county, which was the national epicenter of the Coronavirus epidemic a couple of weeks ago. Now, the spread of the disease seems to have been almost halted, though obviously there’s a lag in deaths as infected people expire. If the local government hadn’t done the sensible thing, we might be ahead of NYC by now, maybe even up with Northern Italy.
     
    https://www.unz.com/isteve/how-long-to-shut-down-lets-procrastinate-on-making-that-decision/#comment-3797074

    How much of the shut down was due to Silicon Valley companies pressuring Newsom to act? Those companies video conference daily and send their people to Asia weekly to monitor their factories, not to mention all the Chinese-Americans with family still in China that live in San Jose/the Bay area...The west coast as a whole was out front on this because of their close ties to Asia.
     
    Yes, I'm sure those were important contributing factors. But as far as I can tell, it most mostly just the local government health offiicials.

    Gavin is setting himself up for 2024 at this point. If CA does stay low on total infections list, he will come out of this looking pretty good.

    Secretly he is rooting for Trump this year also.

    • Replies: @Steve Sailer
    Newsom's ex-wife is dating Donald Trump Jr.

    Somebody suggested Trump is warming up to Gavin for complicated family reasons.

  181. @Intelligent Dasein
    This isn't Omaha Beach, dude. Get some perspective.

    Throw some water on him, his hair’s on fire.

  182. @indocon
    Gavin is setting himself up for 2024 at this point. If CA does stay low on total infections list, he will come out of this looking pretty good.

    Secretly he is rooting for Trump this year also.

    Newsom’s ex-wife is dating Donald Trump Jr.

    Somebody suggested Trump is warming up to Gavin for complicated family reasons.

    • Replies: @Paleo Liberal
    Just too weird.

    Newsom and Trump Jr have both been known to make stupid decisions involving women in their lives.
    , @indocon
    All the WASPs internally have a secret affection for each other.
  183. @Paleo Liberal
    Italy may have passed their peak.

    If that is the case, then peak death in NYC by mid-April is not unreasonable. The question is whether the rest is the US will make up the difference.

    Per worldometer cases were down in Italy, Spain, Germany, France, and the UK today; deaths were down everywhere except Germany (but still low). It’s just one day, but that was good to see,

    • Replies: @Steve Sailer
    Is there a site that reports death tolls as of a certain hour of the day: e.g., as of midnight EDT, the New York state death toll for the last 7 days was such and such?
  184. @Intelligent Dasein
    This isn't Omaha Beach, dude. Get some perspective.

    This isn’t Omaha Beach, dude. Get some perspective.

    Right back at you. This has already killed about as many Americans as died on Omaha Beach. We’ll be lucky if it doesn’t kill as many as died in WWII.

    • Replies: @Jack D
    This is not remotely comparable. The boys on Omaha Beach were 18 or 20 years old and had their whole lives ahead of them. Coronavirus is mostly taking people who are in the twilight of their life.
    , @AnotherDad


    Right back at you. This has already killed about as many Americans as died on Omaha Beach. We’ll be lucky if it doesn’t kill as many as died in WWII.
     
    Turn in your testicles, Thomas. Hysterics are for girls. Men are supposed to be able to reason, even when the shit is hitting the fan.

    Americans die everyday. Every couple months more Americans die than in the War--so what?

    There are a bunch of unknowns, but the broad outline is pretty clear. This is considerably--10X? 20X?--more lethal than the typical flu, but it is even more skewed toward killing the elderly and those with health issues--especially both; i.e. killing those in "God's waiting room."

    It's just savaging Italy right?
    https://jamanetwork.com/journals/jama/fullarticle/2763667

    The average age of those dying from Covid-19 in Italy is 80. Now i wouldn't take 80 if you offered it to me right now. (I'm pretty sure i can do better. Offer me 90 and it's a deal.) But if i die at 80 because of some newfangled Chinese concoction is that a big tragedy. No. I'll have had a great run.

    If i die here in my 60s is that a great tragedy? Well for AnotherMom--kinda sucks. For my kids--suboptimal ... i'd have been a great grandpa to their kids. But for my kids', grandkids', great-grandkids' future? For America's future. No.

    Likewise for thousands like me. Early checkout, is simply not the same as "never got to live their life".

    We'll get through this just fine. The world won't end. The sun will come up tomorrow.


    A tip: You are going to die. Me too! Everyone reading this is going to die!

    Live your life well--find a good woman, have a family, love your children. They--their future--are what matters.
  185. @AnotherDad
    I didn't get this in on "The Latest" thread, but the core issue in all these projections are the "social distancing" measures sufficiently effective? We know cases continue to climb. But we're now able to test so, that tells us pretty much nothing.

    To me--what i see from my very white middle class neighborhood--the social distancing should be more than adequate to squelch this epidemic. In other words, i wouldn't think that 1 virus positive person is infecting more than one person.

    The mask thing--rather the lack of masks thing--is annoying and ridiculous. (And still the CDC's advice is "you don't need a mask". CYA for the grotesque failures.)

    There are indications that this virus--compared to common cold and flu--is particularly good at shedding before and after symptoms, or from asymtomatic, which would make this much, much harder to contain.

    But if these social distancing measures are sufficient, then given they really kicked into gear a week or ten days back and the virus takes 15-20 days to kill people, then we should start to see some flattening of new Covid-19 tagged deaths in another couple weeks--mid April.

    Of course, i'm speculating about the measures i see my community. There are likely differences in behavior/compliance in different er, um ... "population groups", that keep this thing humming.

    Mme B and I are doing our best. Other population groups elsewhere are on their own.

  186. @Marty
    In what other aspect of contract law does one party have the right to not only breach the contract, but to continue to be treated as if they didn’t?

    Employment. If your employee manual contains some sort of promised benefit, the employer gets to change it unilaterally when it becomes inconvenient, if you haven’t yet cashed in. And even assuming the provision is held to be “vested,” you still lose your case if you lied on your resume. This sounds like a joke, but it’s true. It’s called the After-Acquired Evidence doctrine.

    Employment. If your employee manual contains some sort of promised benefit, the employer gets to change it unilaterally when it becomes inconvenient, if you haven’t yet cashed in. And even assuming the provision is held to be “vested,” you still lose your case if you lied on your resume. This sounds like a joke, but it’s true. It’s called the After-Acquired Evidence doctrine.

    Everything in that paragraph is utter bullshit. The employer might get away with unilateral changes in the manual, if it has made clear that it has the right to do so. And yes, IAAL.

    • Replies: @Marty
    I was in the courtroom in the first wrongful discharge case in California history, 1982. I bet you never represented a plaintiff in an employment case.
  187. @As
    What are the demographics of the dead in the US?

    Are they all old, sick people?

    Are we wrecking the economy for the benefit of old sick people?

    I keep hearing that Covid 19 is much deadlier than the flu. Again for whom? Certainly not for the young and healthy or for babies. Are they talking about old sick people?

    For young people, the cure—the economic shutdown—is worse than the disease.

    What about race? How about residence in suburbia vs. flat in large building? — this kind of breakdown would clarify, for me, my family’s probable danger.

    • Replies: @Steve Sailer
    What if elevators are a peculiarly high risk?
  188. @Steve Sailer
    Newsom's ex-wife is dating Donald Trump Jr.

    Somebody suggested Trump is warming up to Gavin for complicated family reasons.

    Just too weird.

    Newsom and Trump Jr have both been known to make stupid decisions involving women in their lives.

    • Replies: @ben tillman
    Haven't we all?
  189. @Thomas

    This isn’t Omaha Beach, dude. Get some perspective.
     
    Right back at you. This has already killed about as many Americans as died on Omaha Beach. We'll be lucky if it doesn't kill as many as died in WWII.

    This is not remotely comparable. The boys on Omaha Beach were 18 or 20 years old and had their whole lives ahead of them. Coronavirus is mostly taking people who are in the twilight of their life.

  190. @Bardon Kaldian
    Why all the fuss? It's just a flu....

    https://www.timesofisrael.com/mom-im-afraid-seriously-ill-virus-patient-22-said-before-being-sedated/

    The mother of a seriously ill 22-year-old coronavirus patient, whose condition rapidly deteriorated to the point where doctors put him on a ventilator, told media Sunday that her son had spoken of his fears before being tranquilized.

    The man, who has not been named in media reports, had no preexisting medical issues when he was diagnosed with COVID-19, the disease caused by the new coronavirus.
    .........................................
    A resident of the southern port city of Ashdod, he was hospitalized last Wednesday and by the following day was no longer able to stand or take a shower, his mother told the Ynet news site.
    .........................................................................
    By Sunday morning, due to his rapidly deteriorating condition and increasing difficulty breathing, doctors at the Samson Assuta Ashdod University Hospital made the decision to sedate him and hook him up to a ventilator.

    The man, who has not been named in media reports…

    Voldemort?

    Woman tells media…

    The mom is anonymous too?

    • Replies: @Bardon Kaldian

    Voldemort?
     
    https://media1.tenor.com/images/6fa43547c2022cae7793704f7b6221ff/tenor.gif?itemid=14165012
  191. Wait for the Mexican boomerang effect.

    Step 1. Rich Mexicans bring back virus from Colorado ski trips.

    Step 2. Spring Break college kids bring cases of Corona to Mexico.

    Step 3. AMLO pretty much ignores it.

    Step 4. Coronavirus runs rampant through a country with a poor health care system

    Step 5. Just as the US gets Coronavirus under control, horses of Mexicans and Central Americans rush to the border.

    • Replies: @anon
    Step 3. AMLO pretty much ignores it.

    He was, but now he's changed his mind. Mexico City was ordered to chill out on Thursday. I think that WHO's declaration was part of it.

    https://www.msn.com/en-ca/news/world/mexicos-choice-amulets-or-science-to-fight-covid-19/ar-BB11RAMb?li=AAggFp4

    Step 4. Coronavirus runs rampant through a country with a poor health care system

    Unfortunately.

    https://www.foxnews.com/world/mexican-doctors-fear-coronavirus-pandemic-leading-to-grim-scenario

    https://mexiconewsdaily.com/news/coronavirus/covid-19-5-dead-405-confirmed-cases/
  192. @Anonymous
    It’s difficult to believe anyone who hates women as much as you do is married or has ever had a relationship with a woman.

    Your pornographic obsession with what you wrongly believe to be the sex lives of people you don’t know and will never meet is unseemly, perverted, pornographic and weird. You must spend a lot of time pleasuring yourself as you think of those tens of millions of promiscuous sluts out there. If you were married, you wouldn’t be thinking about strangers sex lives all the time. You’d be thinking about your wife.

    You must believe every word in the National Enquirer.

    Your pornographic obsession…is…pornographic….

    tau·tol·o·gy tôˈtäləjē (from Greek ταυτολογία ) noun: a statement that is true by necessity or by virtue of its logical form; the saying of the same thing twice in different words, generally considered to be a fault of style (e.g., “They arrived one after the other in succession.”)

  193. @Robert Dolan
    Anthony Fauci published a paper in the New England Journal of Medicine that said that Covid was like a severe flu and that the death rate would be the same as the flu, at 0.1%

    In 2018 the flu killed 80K people.

    TB kills 1.7 million people yearly and nobody cares.

    AIDS kills 2 million, not a huge concern anymore.

    Malaria kills one million, you never hear about it.

    The open southern border brought back cholera, malaria, polio, leprosy, bubonic plague, chickenpox, smallpox, typhus, MERSA, Zika, and INCURABLE ANTIBIOTIC RESISTANT TB. You never hear a peep about this. We had eradicated most of those diseases. I spoke to a high level medical official in CA, and she admitted that the antibiotic resistant TB has been here for quite some time. People have no idea.

    Total AIDS deaths since 1981: 658,000.

  194. The boys on Omaha Beach were 18 or 20 years old and had their whole lives ahead of them.

    The point is that they were sacrificing themselves so many more might live. If we were willing to make that sacrifice, giving up stonks to save hundreds of thousands, maybe millions, of lives is a no-brainer. I enjoyed my time with my grandparents, would like for my kids to get to know theirs.

    • Replies: @anon
    "When in danger or in doubt, Run in circles, scream and shout".
  195. @Anonymous
    It’s difficult to believe anyone who hates women as much as you do is married or has ever had a relationship with a woman.

    Your pornographic obsession with what you wrongly believe to be the sex lives of people you don’t know and will never meet is unseemly, perverted, pornographic and weird. You must spend a lot of time pleasuring yourself as you think of those tens of millions of promiscuous sluts out there. If you were married, you wouldn’t be thinking about strangers sex lives all the time. You’d be thinking about your wife.

    You must believe every word in the National Enquirer.

    Wow…

  196. Anon[223] • Disclaimer says:
    @Anon
    Steve,
    I generally agree with the numbers on this site, but (thankfully), there are two positive points that I don't see discussed much here that somewhat improve the picture.

    First, we have dramatically ramped up testing, and yet the growth in measured Coronavirus cases on a daily basis is slowing. Now, it is around 10% a day, which is not good in absolute terms, but does showcase some improvement than the crazy growth that we were having a week ago, which was around 60% increases in most of the major metropolitan areas. Since we are testing more, this is a very positive picture.

    Second, and the most important, is that the ratio of positive results to total tests has remained around the 18% part for the last week or so. This is enormously good news since testing ramped far after cases started to exponentially grow. So we have two exponential curves, but one that is far ahead of the other. That means that the ratio of positive to negative should be skyrocketing, since the absolute gains in actual cases would have far surpassed the gains in tests. E.X: Cases going from 500k to 1 million in NYC, while testing went from 25k to 75k. Yet, we have the same ratio of positive cases to total tests as we did two weeks ago, which was around 18%. That is vastly good news. If the other scenario was happening, our national positive test ratio would have skyrocked. Remember, we are not random testing, but giving tests to those who exhibit symptoms, a population far more likely to have corona than the general population.

    Also, one flaw with the lockdown plan is something I also think is not much discussed here. While America has a high national savings rate, we have a pitiful personal savings rate. The average American has only some $500 on liquid savings. A protracted lockdown could lead to the deaths of hundreds of thousands of people from complications. This is why I think that leaders are hesitant to shutdown. Of course, shutdowns are the way to go, but I feel like this perspective needs to be added.

    In China, which has a high savings rate, the mortality rate of the Chinese skyrocked over the last few months, with hundreds of thousands more dying from shutdown related complications. Of course, this is better than your whole country dying from Corona, but I think the consequences will be severe here as well. Those stimulus dollars may help though.

    That is just my two cents. No one really knows what can happen. Japan avoided the crisis with an open economy(with masks), while China had to shutdown to stop Corona. It depends on complicated factors.

    Well,
    It looks like I am on the right track here. According to the Government, only 255 people died today of coronavirus, which is totally in line with what would you expect with a virus with a mere 18% positive rate on its testing. This is a collapse of over 50 percent in deaths, more dramatic than an
    Maybe this will hold, maybe it won’t, but it is certainly good news and counter to some of the doom and gloom on this site.

    • Replies: @Steve Sailer
    "only 255 people died today of coronavirus,"

    Here's a question: at what time of the day or night does the number of deaths in the day just closed permanently stabilize? Or does it keep going up as more data trickles in the next day?

    This is an issue with murder numbers. For example, the increase from 2014 to 2016 has gone up from about +21% to almost +25% over the last 2.5 years as more bodies are discovered in shallow graves, more people in comas die, etc.

  197. eD says:
    @Robert Dolan
    Anthony Fauci published a paper in the New England Journal of Medicine that said that Covid was like a severe flu and that the death rate would be the same as the flu, at 0.1%

    In 2018 the flu killed 80K people.

    TB kills 1.7 million people yearly and nobody cares.

    AIDS kills 2 million, not a huge concern anymore.

    Malaria kills one million, you never hear about it.

    The open southern border brought back cholera, malaria, polio, leprosy, bubonic plague, chickenpox, smallpox, typhus, MERSA, Zika, and INCURABLE ANTIBIOTIC RESISTANT TB. You never hear a peep about this. We had eradicated most of those diseases. I spoke to a high level medical official in CA, and she admitted that the antibiotic resistant TB has been here for quite some time. People have no idea.

    “Anthony Fauci published a paper in the New England Journal of Medicine that said that Covid was like a severe flu and that the death rate would be the same as the flu, at 0.1%”

    I saw this and I was going to post this. While the lockdowns have been ramping up, the medical establishment has been quietly walking back some of their wilder claims.

    Here is the New England Journal of Medicine article:

    https://www.nejm.org/doi/full/10.1056/NEJMe2002387

    Note that I am now reading elsewhere that the article is being scrubbed from the internet, but if that is the case and someone posts it, I’ll post the extract.

    • Replies: @vhrm
    That njem article (which is available at the link you posted afaict) doesn't say it's 0.1%...
    it says it's "more akin to ... 0.1% than to ... 10% or 36%"


    This suggests that the overall clinical consequences of Covid-19 may ultimately be more akin to those of a severe seasonal influenza (which has a case fatality rate of approximately 0.1%) or a pandemic influenza (similar to those in 1957 and 1968) rather than a disease similar to SARS or MERS, which have had case fatality rates of 9 to 10% and 36%, respectively.2
     
    In this other arrive 1 day later they mention the lowest seen so far is Singapore at 0.3% CFR

    https://www.thelancet.com/journals/laninf/article/PIIS1473-3099(20)30244-9/fulltext
  198. @Mr McKenna
    Cuomo declared that any attempt by Trump to quarantine the tri-state area was 'tantamount to a declaration of war'. What? I thought we did declare war on this thing. But no, Cuomo specifically threatened "Civil War" if we tried to stop NYC-area denizens from fanning out across the country spreading coron.

    Trump should have gone to the mat with Cuomo over this. What's he afraid of, losing tri-state votes? Now the MSM will be playing this as yet another of Trump's failures to keep the country safe.

    https://www.theblaze.com/news/regional_quarantine_civil_war_cuomo

    “If you start walling off areas all across the country it would just be totally bizarre, counter-productive, anti-American, anti-social," Cuomo said.

    “It makes absolutely no sense and I don't think any serious governmental personality or professional would support it," he added.
     

    Build bridges, not walls! We need a 'Corona-Bridge' meme.

    I agree, Trump should have quarantined New York to keep Americans safe. Most Governors would have fully supported this action. This would have been applauded by red state Americans and would have shown Trump leading the fight to contain the epidemic.

    Politically it would have been a huge win for Trump , which is why the media was so opposed to the quarantine of New York , while the media fully supported Cuomo when he sent troops to quarantine New Rochelle a few weeks ago.

  199. @anonguy
    One absurdity of the modern era is that someone with such a controllable health condition of choice is the national health minister.

    Oh well, I'm guessing we used to have surgeon generals who smoke, every era has its foibles, we are all humans.

    I gotta say our current surgeon general is a radiantly healthy looking dude, good example there, so good on him for that.

    Isn't Belgium super near the top on obesity rates?

    Obesity is nearly as heritable as height.

  200. anon[323] • Disclaimer says:
    @Paleo Liberal
    Wait for the Mexican boomerang effect.

    Step 1. Rich Mexicans bring back virus from Colorado ski trips.

    Step 2. Spring Break college kids bring cases of Corona to Mexico.

    Step 3. AMLO pretty much ignores it.

    Step 4. Coronavirus runs rampant through a country with a poor health care system

    Step 5. Just as the US gets Coronavirus under control, horses of Mexicans and Central Americans rush to the border.

    Step 3. AMLO pretty much ignores it.

    He was, but now he’s changed his mind. Mexico City was ordered to chill out on Thursday. I think that WHO’s declaration was part of it.

    https://www.msn.com/en-ca/news/world/mexicos-choice-amulets-or-science-to-fight-covid-19/ar-BB11RAMb?li=AAggFp4

    Step 4. Coronavirus runs rampant through a country with a poor health care system

    Unfortunately.

    https://www.foxnews.com/world/mexican-doctors-fear-coronavirus-pandemic-leading-to-grim-scenario

    https://mexiconewsdaily.com/news/coronavirus/covid-19-5-dead-405-confirmed-cases/

  201. @Anon
    Well,
    It looks like I am on the right track here. According to the Government, only 255 people died today of coronavirus, which is totally in line with what would you expect with a virus with a mere 18% positive rate on its testing. This is a collapse of over 50 percent in deaths, more dramatic than an
    Maybe this will hold, maybe it won't, but it is certainly good news and counter to some of the doom and gloom on this site.

    “only 255 people died today of coronavirus,”

    Here’s a question: at what time of the day or night does the number of deaths in the day just closed permanently stabilize? Or does it keep going up as more data trickles in the next day?

    This is an issue with murder numbers. For example, the increase from 2014 to 2016 has gone up from about +21% to almost +25% over the last 2.5 years as more bodies are discovered in shallow graves, more people in comas die, etc.

    • Replies: @Thomas
    It's also a Sunday, when presumably some people may be working shorter hours. Medical staff in New York and other hot spots might also be fatigued and leaving their paperwork for Monday morning. If tomorrow shows a crush of reported fatalities, we'll know why.
    , @anonguy
    This is actually a deep philosophical question about differences between binary and analog representations of reality.

    They are both true but incomplete. A big feature is that they are understandable concepts to humans. That is why we use both, and even the combination is only an imperfect modeling of some base reality.

    If such a thing actually does exist.

    FWIW, one would be a fool to think there isn't some really great brain power working their buns off figuring all sorts of deaths per dow point models quant stuff to make or protect untold billions off of this.

    Too bad they aren't working on how to beat the virus. Misallocation of resource in this challenge, IMO.
    , @Autochthon
    I've no expertise; I offer only logic. (Any Quincy, M.E. reading is encouraged to correct me!) Presumably the date if death is coming from the known date or, in, say, the case of the fellow found in the shallow grave, the forensic examiners' best estimate of the date of expiry (which is, increasingly, able to be impressively accurate). It's all a matter of what appears on the death certificate and then aggregating the data.

    Thus, the later the data were compiled after the date one wishes to study, the more accurate those data are, because more of the informed estimates about the guys who died that day but lay undiscovered some time in shallow graves (or whatever) have been added.

    Now, if you are asking the more pedestrian question, I reckon "midnight" tolls the closing. So, technically, one cannot state a worldwide figure for "How many people died on March 29, 1989?" other than by defining one's terms (as, say, from this hour to that hour in Greenwich Mean Time, or whatever). Presumably outfits like the WHO already have some established conventions along those lines.

    Still and all, I cannot help but reckon I am misunderstanding the question, since reviewing my own reply, it seems facile and obvious....
  202. @Cato
    What about race? How about residence in suburbia vs. flat in large building? -- this kind of breakdown would clarify, for me, my family's probable danger.

    What if elevators are a peculiarly high risk?

    • Replies: @Jenner Ickham Errican
    Only on the upper floors.
    , @Jack D
    I think that it's not a coincidence that the biggest epidemic in the US is in our most densely packed city. But I would bet that most of the risk of elevators (indeed most of the risk of coronavirus) is from being in them with other people, not from touching the buttons, etc. (which most people have taken to doing with pencils, etc.). And from what I understand from my friends in NY, the new etiquette in apartment buildings is that you get the elevator to yourself. The high # of cases that we are seeing now is because the "new rules" are extremely recent and people are getting sick now based on the rules that were in place 2 weeks ago.
  203. @Keypusher
    Per worldometer cases were down in Italy, Spain, Germany, France, and the UK today; deaths were down everywhere except Germany (but still low). It’s just one day, but that was good to see,

    Is there a site that reports death tolls as of a certain hour of the day: e.g., as of midnight EDT, the New York state death toll for the last 7 days was such and such?

    • Replies: @Keypusher
    At Worldometers, the day is reset after midnight GMT+0, which is to say 8:00 pm on the east coast and 5:00 pm on the west coast. I usually check the Europe numbers after 8:00 pm and the US numbers the next morning (I’m in NY), because the US numbers sometimes get added to late.

    Yesterday was the first across-the-board good day for W. Europe and the USA that I’ve seen (but I’ve only been doing this regularly since the 23rd).
  204. @Anonymous
    In terms of surface antigen, SARS and COVID-19 are 96% identical. We know that SARS immunity, judged by antibody titers, lasted at least 2 years. There is absolutely no reason COVID-19 is going to be different.

    https://www.ncbi.nlm.nih.gov/pmc/articles/PMC2851497/

    Among 176 patients who had had severe acute respiratory syndrome (SARS), SARS-specific antibodies were maintained for an average of 2 years, and significant reduction of immunoglobulin G–positive percentage and titers occurred in the third year. Thus, SARS patients might be susceptible to reinfection >3 years after initial exposure.
     

    So there is an argument for a middling deal, some immunity for a couple of years.

    Actually, /pol has been all over this for a couple of months, but good to see you guys catching up here.

    Anyhow, SARS analagy, not perfect or definitive, but definitely a warm spot on a thermal plot of possible outcomes.

    FWIW, some of the justification for fears about ADE come from SARS vaccine research.

    Apparently, only fragmentary stuff because vaccine effort was abandoned when SARS was eradicated.

    But some indication that the vaccine made people get it worse a second time.

    Fecal transmission was also a big deal in SARS and not understood at the time. Google SARS Amoy garden.

    However, this time around, East Asia has this figured out. Coronavirus has been found 17 days after evactuation of Diamond Princess. And all sorts of stuff documenting how bathrooms, including the air, gets contaminated.

    Over here, you guys are still wondering about why people who eat and share bathrooms together are spreading it like it is this gigantic mystery, scratching your heads.

  205. @Steve Sailer
    "only 255 people died today of coronavirus,"

    Here's a question: at what time of the day or night does the number of deaths in the day just closed permanently stabilize? Or does it keep going up as more data trickles in the next day?

    This is an issue with murder numbers. For example, the increase from 2014 to 2016 has gone up from about +21% to almost +25% over the last 2.5 years as more bodies are discovered in shallow graves, more people in comas die, etc.

    It’s also a Sunday, when presumably some people may be working shorter hours. Medical staff in New York and other hot spots might also be fatigued and leaving their paperwork for Monday morning. If tomorrow shows a crush of reported fatalities, we’ll know why.

  206. Anonymous[427] • Disclaimer says:
    @donut
    You know that bitch better stay off the beach or the do-gooders will show up and try to roll her back into the ocean . Happened to me once . There I was trying to enjoy my day off sunning myself on the beach . The next thing I know the first batch showed up and tried to push me back into the sea but I manged to get back out of the surf . Then it was Animal Rescue and the local I-team news with the Vet splainin' how the poor baby whale must have some kinda' virus that interfered with it's "navigation system" . "Look how exhausted it is weakly flapping it's flippers" . At home the future little "humanitarians" were all "is the little baby whale going to die mommy ?" Yeah it is , tie a yellow ribbon around the old oak tree for the the endangered species . As a fitting tribute , they built a sand castle in memoriam . Stuffed animals and plastic flowers the whole works and then everybody died of the Kung Flu . I went to the liquor store and bought a 5th of Meyers .
    Hey, I was wondering , this TP crisis we're facing here on planet Earth made me curious how do they wipe their asses on the ISS ? I mean do they use TP for their cornholliols ? How would that work ? Do they send 12 packs up on the Russian Rockets , what does that cost ? What do they do with their weightless turds ? Just flush them out into space ? Do they bring them back ? Do you think there would be a market for space turds ? Remember the key chains with plastic coated buffalo turds ? Man life is just chock full of mysteries isn't it ? Kinda' puts the Chinese virus in perspective you know ?

    In a vacuum, turds outgas and turn into coffee grounds like particles, dry and odorless.

  207. @Steve Sailer
    "only 255 people died today of coronavirus,"

    Here's a question: at what time of the day or night does the number of deaths in the day just closed permanently stabilize? Or does it keep going up as more data trickles in the next day?

    This is an issue with murder numbers. For example, the increase from 2014 to 2016 has gone up from about +21% to almost +25% over the last 2.5 years as more bodies are discovered in shallow graves, more people in comas die, etc.

    This is actually a deep philosophical question about differences between binary and analog representations of reality.

    They are both true but incomplete. A big feature is that they are understandable concepts to humans. That is why we use both, and even the combination is only an imperfect modeling of some base reality.

    If such a thing actually does exist.

    FWIW, one would be a fool to think there isn’t some really great brain power working their buns off figuring all sorts of deaths per dow point models quant stuff to make or protect untold billions off of this.

    Too bad they aren’t working on how to beat the virus. Misallocation of resource in this challenge, IMO.

  208. @Thomas

    The boys on Omaha Beach were 18 or 20 years old and had their whole lives ahead of them.
     
    The point is that they were sacrificing themselves so many more might live. If we were willing to make that sacrifice, giving up stonks to save hundreds of thousands, maybe millions, of lives is a no-brainer. I enjoyed my time with my grandparents, would like for my kids to get to know theirs.

    “When in danger or in doubt, Run in circles, scream and shout”.

  209. @Steve Sailer
    What if elevators are a peculiarly high risk?

    Only on the upper floors.

  210. @Thomas

    This isn’t Omaha Beach, dude. Get some perspective.
     
    Right back at you. This has already killed about as many Americans as died on Omaha Beach. We'll be lucky if it doesn't kill as many as died in WWII.

    Right back at you. This has already killed about as many Americans as died on Omaha Beach. We’ll be lucky if it doesn’t kill as many as died in WWII.

    Turn in your testicles, Thomas. Hysterics are for girls. Men are supposed to be able to reason, even when the shit is hitting the fan.

    Americans die everyday. Every couple months more Americans die than in the War–so what?

    There are a bunch of unknowns, but the broad outline is pretty clear. This is considerably–10X? 20X?–more lethal than the typical flu, but it is even more skewed toward killing the elderly and those with health issues–especially both; i.e. killing those in “God’s waiting room.”

    It’s just savaging Italy right?
    https://jamanetwork.com/journals/jama/fullarticle/2763667

    The average age of those dying from Covid-19 in Italy is 80. Now i wouldn’t take 80 if you offered it to me right now. (I’m pretty sure i can do better. Offer me 90 and it’s a deal.) But if i die at 80 because of some newfangled Chinese concoction is that a big tragedy. No. I’ll have had a great run.

    If i die here in my 60s is that a great tragedy? Well for AnotherMom–kinda sucks. For my kids–suboptimal … i’d have been a great grandpa to their kids. But for my kids’, grandkids’, great-grandkids’ future? For America’s future. No.

    Likewise for thousands like me. Early checkout, is simply not the same as “never got to live their life”.

    We’ll get through this just fine. The world won’t end. The sun will come up tomorrow.

    A tip: You are going to die. Me too! Everyone reading this is going to die!

    Live your life well–find a good woman, have a family, love your children. They–their future–are what matters.

    • Replies: @Thomas

    Men are supposed to be able to reason, even when the shit is hitting the fan.
     
    Reasoning includes being able to look at the objective statistical evidence and to see how deadly this thing is.

    I have a mother who is 70 (hardly "God's waiting room") but has asthma, and a daughter who isn't yet 3. I'd like for my daughter to get a few years to know her grandmother, and vice versa.

    Oh, and I also finished my education and entered the job market in 2011, right along with everyone else who thought they were "waiting out" the last recession in higher ed. (More fool us.) So I have no time for handwringing about "America's future" being threatened by a recession or even a depression. We've been through them before. The country survived.

    Maybe it won't be such a picnic though for folks who left their retirement portfolios tilted a little too much towards growth vs. income a little too close to retirement. That wouldn't be you, guy in his 60s, would it?
  211. @JerseyJeffersonian
    Unlikely. Once a narcissist, always a narcissist

    Yeah, one of his priorities early on was getting a glowing puff piece on himself in the New Yorker, I believe it was.

    But nobody is beyond redemption, however unlikely, and beyond that, in this case, his interest aligns best with that of USA. So that he doesn’t go down in the retrospective as part of the February Disaster, as it is now being understood, he’s positioning himself as a truthteller and, amazingly enough, telling a lot of truth esp. if you listen to the guy carefully.

    Anyhow, we are running what we brung, no other choice at the moment, situation is too fast moving.

  212. @Known Fact
    I'm thinking that within a few years every building might have some kind of small decontamination chamber or device at each entrance -- emitting some spray, cleansing light rays or radiation

    Does anybody have a list of great apocalyptic flicks I can stream?

    • Replies: @Jenner Ickham Errican

    Does anybody have a list of great apocalyptic flicks I can stream?
     
    Here’s a pretty good scene from Apocalypso:

    https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=YRyiPuB5C_0
  213. @Steve Sailer
    "only 255 people died today of coronavirus,"

    Here's a question: at what time of the day or night does the number of deaths in the day just closed permanently stabilize? Or does it keep going up as more data trickles in the next day?

    This is an issue with murder numbers. For example, the increase from 2014 to 2016 has gone up from about +21% to almost +25% over the last 2.5 years as more bodies are discovered in shallow graves, more people in comas die, etc.

    I’ve no expertise; I offer only logic. (Any Quincy, M.E. reading is encouraged to correct me!) Presumably the date if death is coming from the known date or, in, say, the case of the fellow found in the shallow grave, the forensic examiners’ best estimate of the date of expiry (which is, increasingly, able to be impressively accurate). It’s all a matter of what appears on the death certificate and then aggregating the data.

    Thus, the later the data were compiled after the date one wishes to study, the more accurate those data are, because more of the informed estimates about the guys who died that day but lay undiscovered some time in shallow graves (or whatever) have been added.

    Now, if you are asking the more pedestrian question, I reckon “midnight” tolls the closing. So, technically, one cannot state a worldwide figure for “How many people died on March 29, 1989?” other than by defining one’s terms (as, say, from this hour to that hour in Greenwich Mean Time, or whatever). Presumably outfits like the WHO already have some established conventions along those lines.

    Still and all, I cannot help but reckon I am misunderstanding the question, since reviewing my own reply, it seems facile and obvious….

  214. @Anonymous (n)
    I don't think modeling at such an early stage of a pandemic in a country as enormous as the United States is of much value. As of this moment nearly half of our total cases are concentrated in NYC and thus the numbers are heavily driven by this single epicenter. Any modeling done using current data goes out the window the minute other epicenters such as Louisiana or Florida reach critical mass. The country is just far too heterogeneous in all manner of parameters (policy, density, stage of infection, etc) for modeling to be remotely accurate right now. Model NYC? Sure. The USA? No way.

    I don’t think modeling at such an early stage of a pandemic in a country as enormous as the United States is of much value. As of this moment nearly half of our total cases are concentrated in NYC and thus the numbers are heavily driven by this single epicenter. Any modeling done using current data goes out the window the minute other epicenters such as Louisiana or Florida reach critical mass. The country is just far too heterogeneous in all manner of parameters (policy, density, stage of infection, etc) for modeling to be remotely accurate right now. Model NYC? Sure. The USA? No way.

    Modeling per se, where you take an assumed Ro value and predict infections, deaths etc through differing phases is problematic when the mitigation steps taken change daily, not to mention the inaccuracies in the assumptions.

    What it is useful for is to develop understanding of the mechanics of this particular pandemic so that effective steps can be duplicated and ineffective measures given up. Saves time, money and lives.

    I’ve been making semi-log plots of actual total cases versus time for the world, the world except China and Korea, US and my home state. All graphs are quasi-parallel, showing only minor deviations when distancing is introduced, then travel restrictions. The only major effect is when lockdown/quarantine is imposed.

  215. Anonymous[270] • Disclaimer says:
    @Intelligent Dasein
    This isn't Omaha Beach, dude. Get some perspective.

    This isn’t Omaha Beach, dude.

    Yes, it isn’t. It has a potential to kill 5X more Americans than WWI and WWII combined. This thing hasn’t even started in earnest in the USA and we are already about even with Omaha Beach casualties.

  216. @AnotherDad


    Right back at you. This has already killed about as many Americans as died on Omaha Beach. We’ll be lucky if it doesn’t kill as many as died in WWII.
     
    Turn in your testicles, Thomas. Hysterics are for girls. Men are supposed to be able to reason, even when the shit is hitting the fan.

    Americans die everyday. Every couple months more Americans die than in the War--so what?

    There are a bunch of unknowns, but the broad outline is pretty clear. This is considerably--10X? 20X?--more lethal than the typical flu, but it is even more skewed toward killing the elderly and those with health issues--especially both; i.e. killing those in "God's waiting room."

    It's just savaging Italy right?
    https://jamanetwork.com/journals/jama/fullarticle/2763667

    The average age of those dying from Covid-19 in Italy is 80. Now i wouldn't take 80 if you offered it to me right now. (I'm pretty sure i can do better. Offer me 90 and it's a deal.) But if i die at 80 because of some newfangled Chinese concoction is that a big tragedy. No. I'll have had a great run.

    If i die here in my 60s is that a great tragedy? Well for AnotherMom--kinda sucks. For my kids--suboptimal ... i'd have been a great grandpa to their kids. But for my kids', grandkids', great-grandkids' future? For America's future. No.

    Likewise for thousands like me. Early checkout, is simply not the same as "never got to live their life".

    We'll get through this just fine. The world won't end. The sun will come up tomorrow.


    A tip: You are going to die. Me too! Everyone reading this is going to die!

    Live your life well--find a good woman, have a family, love your children. They--their future--are what matters.

    Men are supposed to be able to reason, even when the shit is hitting the fan.

    Reasoning includes being able to look at the objective statistical evidence and to see how deadly this thing is.

    I have a mother who is 70 (hardly “God’s waiting room”) but has asthma, and a daughter who isn’t yet 3. I’d like for my daughter to get a few years to know her grandmother, and vice versa.

    Oh, and I also finished my education and entered the job market in 2011, right along with everyone else who thought they were “waiting out” the last recession in higher ed. (More fool us.) So I have no time for handwringing about “America’s future” being threatened by a recession or even a depression. We’ve been through them before. The country survived.

    Maybe it won’t be such a picnic though for folks who left their retirement portfolios tilted a little too much towards growth vs. income a little too close to retirement. That wouldn’t be you, guy in his 60s, would it?

    • Disagree: The Wild Geese Howard
    • Replies: @AnotherDad


    Men are supposed to be able to reason, even when the shit is hitting the fan.
     
    Reasoning includes being able to look at the objective statistical evidence and to see how deadly this thing is.
     
    Thomas, i--and several other folks--have given you the "objective statistical evidence" time and time again. You don't want to lose your mom--a natural emotion.

    I just gave you Italy, the hardest hit nation:
    https://jamanetwork.com/journals/jama/fullarticle/2763667

    This is their nonni killer. The deaths are almost all elderly and/or in poor health, people who would likely die in the next 5 or 10. (The sort of people the seasonal flu harvests.)


    If this data were the other way around--the kids getting slaughtered (something much more analogous to the War)--i'd be all "lock this bitch down!"

    Farmers, oilmen, coal miners, power, water, sewer, food processing+delivery, and critical medical folks go to work. Everyone else stay home. I'd be fine with empty streets and cops enforcing it with guns drawn.

    Our kids are the nation's future.


    But this epidemic isn't that. It is hammering people near the end of their lives--mostly either lived it, or took poor care of themselves (obesity, smoking, etc.) It's 10 seasons of flu culling rolled into one.

    I'm on board with harsh measures for a short period to get it under control and be able to move into a regime of contact tracing. (I'm still waiting to see some basic respiratory epidemic seriousness--masks.)

    But a depression for this?

    Cost benefit is real. There are a heck of a lot of ways we could have spent 4 trillion and saved more lives--and way, way more "years of life". Highway safety improvements? Mandatory drunk-driving interlocks? A Devil's Island to dump our criminals? A wall on the border? Cancer research? Infectious disease/vaccine research? Aging research?

    A depression also takes lives--ones that matter a whole lot more. Young Americans need jobs to move on in life and start families. I'm hoping for an American baby boom come Christmas. But generally young women--at least those from civilized "population groups"--want their husband to have a job and be able to support them and their baby before they "lie back and think of England America"

    Life has tradeoffs. Sound judgment is working through them for the best long run outcome for the nation, not "the sky is falling" hysterics, not even about losing elderly loved ones.
    , @AnotherDad


    Men are supposed to be able to reason, even when the shit is hitting the fan.
     
    Reasoning includes being able to look at the objective statistical evidence and to see how deadly this thing is.
     
    Thomas, i--and several other folks--have given you the "objective statistical evidence" time and time again. (You don't want to lose your mom--a natural, honorable emotion. But it doesn't throw reason out the window.)

    I just gave you Italy, the hardest hit nation:
    https://jamanetwork.com/journals/jama/fullarticle/2763667

    This is their nonni killer. The deaths are almost all elderly and/or in poor health, people who would likely die in the next 5 or 10. (The sort of people the seasonal flu harvests.)


    If this data were the other way around--the kids getting slaughtered (something much more analogous to the War)--i'd be "lock this bitch down!" Farmers, oilmen, coal miners, power, water, sewer, food processing+delivery, and critical medical folks go to work. Everyone else stay home. I'd be fine with empty streets and cops enforcing it with guns drawn.

    Our kids are the nation's future.


    But this epidemic isn't that. It is hammering people near the end of their lives--mostly either lived it, or took poor care of themselves (obesity, smoking, etc.) It's 10 seasons of flu culling rolled into one. I'm on board with harsh measures for a short period to get it under control and be able to move into a regime of contact tracing. (I'm still waiting to see some basic respiratory epidemic seriousness--masks.)

    But a depression for this?

    Cost benefit is real. There are a heck of a lot of ways we could have spent 4 trillion and saved more lives--and way, way more "years of life". Highway safety improvements? Mandatory drunk-driving interlocks? A Devil's Island to dump our criminals? A wall on the border? Cancer research? Infectious disease/vaccine research? Aging research?

    A depression also takes lives--ones that matter a whole lot more. Young Americans need jobs to move on in life and start families. I'm hoping for an American baby boom come Christmas. But generally young women--at least those from civilized "population groups"--want their husband to have a job and be able to support them and their baby before they "lie back and think of England America"

    Life has tradeoffs. Sound judgment is working through them for the best long run outcome for the nation, not "the sky is falling" hysterics, not even about losing elderly loved ones.
  217. @Reg Cæsar

    The “car culture” hipsters and environmental wackos love to castigate sure comes in handy when you can be alone in your car safe from infection as opposed to being packed on public transport like sardines.
     
    You are safer on the A train in the midst of this pandemic than on almost any highway in the land-- or world. This virus has a lot of catching up to do:

    https://www.nsc.org/road-safety/safety-topics/fatality-estimates

    https://www.zerohedge.com/health/covid-19-saving-lives

    Fewer people have died this year than last due to the pandemic lockdown.

  218. @James Speaks
    Does anybody have a list of great apocalyptic flicks I can stream?

    Does anybody have a list of great apocalyptic flicks I can stream?

    Here’s a pretty good scene from Apocalypso:

    [MORE]

    • Replies: @James Speaks
    Thank you, Jenner.

    That was really great cinema!

    Did Bob Fosse choreograph it?

  219. @Steve Sailer
    Newsom's ex-wife is dating Donald Trump Jr.

    Somebody suggested Trump is warming up to Gavin for complicated family reasons.

    All the WASPs internally have a secret affection for each other.

  220. @YetAnotherAnon
    Does anyone know where we can see graphs of daily deaths rather than daily infections, as the latter depend so much on the amount of testing countries are doing?

    There are some discrepancies even with deaths (afaik the UK were only reporting people who died in hospital as CV deaths) but deaths are the bottom line and harder to hide/ignore.

    The Johns Hopkins site is great, but the graphs they do for cases don't seem to be available for deaths.

    https://coronavirus.jhu.edu/map.html
    • Thanks: YetAnotherAnon
  221. @Jenner Ickham Errican

    Does anybody have a list of great apocalyptic flicks I can stream?
     
    Here’s a pretty good scene from Apocalypso:

    https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=YRyiPuB5C_0

    Thank you, Jenner.

    That was really great cinema!

    Did Bob Fosse choreograph it?

  222. @Anonymous
    It’s difficult to believe anyone who hates women as much as you do is married or has ever had a relationship with a woman.

    Your pornographic obsession with what you wrongly believe to be the sex lives of people you don’t know and will never meet is unseemly, perverted, pornographic and weird. You must spend a lot of time pleasuring yourself as you think of those tens of millions of promiscuous sluts out there. If you were married, you wouldn’t be thinking about strangers sex lives all the time. You’d be thinking about your wife.

    You must believe every word in the National Enquirer.

    “If you were married, … you’d be thinking about your wife.”

    a) the author is obviously not male. Alden has a sister?

    b) I didn’t see any obsession with strangers’ sex lives, just an honest acknowledgement that The Way We Live Now is very different from the way our great grandparents lived.

    (I can’t talk, big though relatively inexpensive wedding, bride in white, we’d been living together 6 months)

  223. @Achmed E. Newman

    Having competent people in charge really makes all the difference during a deadly epidemic.
     
    Oh, bullcrap. Other than in the middle of San Fran. or the small downtown L.A., Californians have still got lots of room to live. Even though it is TWICE as crowded a state on the whole as it was sometime in the 1970s, most people still live in detached houses or sprawled-out apartment complexes. Compare this to NY City, where people live packed in like sardines, and almost as in China.

    Speaking of China, perhaps the disease has spread most quickly where the most Chinese people have come home and gone back, in the thousands or tens of thousands during the Spring Festival time. Is there a correlation of that with the areas with most infected people in California? Speaking of that, how about in the huge Hispanic areas of LA or the Bay Area? They live closer together than the gringos for the most part due to being packed many more to a house. Is there much of the Kung Flu in the barrio-burbs? I kinda doubt it, because they don't go back and forth to China. And, no, they don't need no steeenking lock-downs, and I respect them very much for that.

    You come on here often, berate the commenters, and tell us about your wonderful mathematical modeling. Then you pull some theories out of your ass about the competency of California bureaucrats? Puhleeze!

    You come on here often, berate the commenters, and tell us about your wonderful mathematical modeling. Then you pull some theories out of your ass about the competency of California bureaucrats? Puhleeze!

    Ron is absolutely unbelievable right now. He started off the pandemic by trying half-heartedly to blame the US for starting it with a supposed bioweapons attack, but now he’s praising our health bureaucrats for saving s.

  224. @FloridaFan
    I agree. Reading these comments about the "low death rate" on this site are scary. Is this really a tribe I want to be associated with? Some of these people against the lockdown sound like they are in a death cult with the Koch brothers. "Must sacrifice the weak for GDP numbers."

    You live in a country that calls abortion essential and church non-essential.

    Don’t talk to me about GDP, pal. The above is a real fact, and it’s all you need to know about the seriousness and morality of our leadership.

  225. @BB753
    It will peak in july and it's going to be very nasty with the heat and humidity. Nurses and doctors are going to die in droves.

    “It will peak in july and it’s going to be very nasty with the heat and humidity.”

    I assume you’re talking about summertime electric bills, because our esteamed Dr. Dan, MD, assures us humidifiers stop CoronaExtraCold. Heh heh.

    • LOL: BB753
  226. @utu
    "...perhaps the disease has spread most quickly where the most Chinese people have come home and gone back, in the thousands or tens of thousands during the Spring Festival time..."

    Canada: Chinese 1.77 mil out of 37.6 mil and covid 6,280/63dead
    California: Chinese 1.25 mil out of 39.56 mil and covid 5,791/123dead
    NY: Chinese 0.9 mil out of 20 mil and ovid 59,000/965 dead

    NY Chinese must be (1.25/0.9)*(59,000/5,791)=14 times more mobile that California Chinese according to your facile theory. And Canadian Chinese kill natives at (1.77/1.25)*(123/63)=2.76 lower efficacy than the California Chinese, right?

    See where the first vectors of the virus were form in British Columbia and how many were from Iran, Egypt and Europe?

    https://nationalpost.com/news/canada/covid-19-coronavirus-canadian-cases

    You are one dense sumbitch. Yeah, density. Didn’t you see where half the comment was about population density in California vs. NY City? Did you read the word “City” the first time? I wasn’t talking about the whole state of NY. NY City is specifically where the Chinatowns are, where the population lives with a density a lot closer to that in China than the rest of NY State, and it’s where a yuge chunk of the Kung Flu deaths have been.

    It’s all about density, and you ought to know a lot about that, judging from your reply.

  227. @Mike_from_SGV
    There is a lot they're not telling us. They seem to want to maximize general panic. This is why I haven't done any panic selling of stocks. Deaths of unhealthy 80-year-olds is a tragedy for the families, no question, but I can't see it being a huge long-term economic hit, unlike trillions of bad loans, or an infrastructure-destroying war. Short-term, it is a screwover of young people.

    /why do you guys oppose abortion?

  228. @Steve Sailer
    Is there a site that reports death tolls as of a certain hour of the day: e.g., as of midnight EDT, the New York state death toll for the last 7 days was such and such?

    At Worldometers, the day is reset after midnight GMT+0, which is to say 8:00 pm on the east coast and 5:00 pm on the west coast. I usually check the Europe numbers after 8:00 pm and the US numbers the next morning (I’m in NY), because the US numbers sometimes get added to late.

    Yesterday was the first across-the-board good day for W. Europe and the USA that I’ve seen (but I’ve only been doing this regularly since the 23rd).

    • Replies: @Keypusher
    Speaking of which, worldometer jumped its US totals for yesterday to 363 (up from 264) and cases from 18K something to 19K something.

    This doesn’t seem to happen with the numbers from Europe. Use with caution, I guess.
  229. @Hippopotamusdrome


    The man, who has not been named in media reports...

     

    Voldemort?


    Woman tells media...

     

    The mom is anonymous too?

    Voldemort?

  230. @Thomas

    Men are supposed to be able to reason, even when the shit is hitting the fan.
     
    Reasoning includes being able to look at the objective statistical evidence and to see how deadly this thing is.

    I have a mother who is 70 (hardly "God's waiting room") but has asthma, and a daughter who isn't yet 3. I'd like for my daughter to get a few years to know her grandmother, and vice versa.

    Oh, and I also finished my education and entered the job market in 2011, right along with everyone else who thought they were "waiting out" the last recession in higher ed. (More fool us.) So I have no time for handwringing about "America's future" being threatened by a recession or even a depression. We've been through them before. The country survived.

    Maybe it won't be such a picnic though for folks who left their retirement portfolios tilted a little too much towards growth vs. income a little too close to retirement. That wouldn't be you, guy in his 60s, would it?

    Men are supposed to be able to reason, even when the shit is hitting the fan.

    Reasoning includes being able to look at the objective statistical evidence and to see how deadly this thing is.

    Thomas, i–and several other folks–have given you the “objective statistical evidence” time and time again. You don’t want to lose your mom–a natural emotion.

    I just gave you Italy, the hardest hit nation:
    https://jamanetwork.com/journals/jama/fullarticle/2763667

    This is their nonni killer. The deaths are almost all elderly and/or in poor health, people who would likely die in the next 5 or 10. (The sort of people the seasonal flu harvests.)

    If this data were the other way around–the kids getting slaughtered (something much more analogous to the War)–i’d be all “lock this bitch down!”

    Farmers, oilmen, coal miners, power, water, sewer, food processing+delivery, and critical medical folks go to work. Everyone else stay home. I’d be fine with empty streets and cops enforcing it with guns drawn.

    Our kids are the nation’s future.

    But this epidemic isn’t that. It is hammering people near the end of their lives–mostly either lived it, or took poor care of themselves (obesity, smoking, etc.) It’s 10 seasons of flu culling rolled into one.

    I’m on board with harsh measures for a short period to get it under control and be able to move into a regime of contact tracing. (I’m still waiting to see some basic respiratory epidemic seriousness–masks.)

    But a depression for this?

    Cost benefit is real. There are a heck of a lot of ways we could have spent 4 trillion and saved more lives–and way, way more “years of life”. Highway safety improvements? Mandatory drunk-driving interlocks? A Devil’s Island to dump our criminals? A wall on the border? Cancer research? Infectious disease/vaccine research? Aging research?

    A depression also takes lives–ones that matter a whole lot more. Young Americans need jobs to move on in life and start families. I’m hoping for an American baby boom come Christmas. But generally young women–at least those from civilized “population groups”–want their husband to have a job and be able to support them and their baby before they “lie back and think of England America”

    Life has tradeoffs. Sound judgment is working through them for the best long run outcome for the nation, not “the sky is falling” hysterics, not even about losing elderly loved ones.

    • Agree: AnonAnon
    • Replies: @Thomas

    But a depression for this?
     
    From my standpoint, it's the worries about a depression that are hysterical. Not the least because they started less than two weeks into what's only a partial shutdown affecting a third of the country. And because they came from people I'm convinced really would be ok with millions of Americans dead for a bounce in the Dow (Lloyd Blankfein, the private equity and hedge fund vulture capitalists Trump was huddling with last week, various Koch and Wilks brothers mouthpieces, and so forth). I strongly suspect the "shot" isn't so much getting the actual economy back to work for the little guy as much as it is giving some people who took it in the shorts over the last month a window to close out their hold positions. "How bad could this virus get in a couple weeks, right?"

    This isn't like previous recessions, where Wall Street screwed us with their various financial gimmicks: CDOs, CDSs, MBSs, leverage, junk bonds, or what not. This is an exogenous shock to the system that nobody caused and nobody could have predicted. You can think of it like the country getting hit with a really big snowstorm all at once. It reflects nothing about the underlying health of the economy before the event. (Though I'll concede that this could be the trigger for underlying weaknesses in the economy to give way, the way the 1929 crash was. If that's the case though, a recession was inevitable anyway.) A significant share of economic activity has just halted, but capital stock is still in place. Workers still have all their skills. When the "all-clear" comes, there's going to be a glut of pent-up demand that will need to be satisfied.

    We probably can ride this out with some smart and targeted adjustments both on an individual and a policymaking level. (Some suggestions in this piece: https://www.nytimes.com/2020/03/30/opinion/coronavirus-economy-saez-zucman.html) Creditors of various types like landlords and lenders may need to accept they'll have to wait a little bit to get paid. There will have to be some general belt-tightening for everybody. Personal financial advisors recommend keeping the equivalent of three months of income for emergencies but there's no chance most Americans have done this. (The Chinese save much more than we do, which is one reason I'm sure the quarantine in Hubei wasn't as much of a problem for them.) People are going to have to hold on to what cash they have as best they can and get over being too proud to work out arrangements with their lenders and landlords. (Courts are at least partially shut down now too in many places under lockdown orders, at least for in-person hearings and jury trials, so nobody is going to be getting a judgment on a debt for a while anyway.)

    We've dealt with many more recessions in recent history than we have deadly pandemics, about eight or nine by my count in the last century compared to one. We have better tools and more flexibility to deal with the former than we do the latter, as should be obvious by now. It isn't as if the entire economy has shut down either. Amazon and Target are supposedly greatly in need of help right now. This pandemic is causing a boom in some sectors even if its suppressing economic activity overall.

    And also, frankly, if we do allow this to turn into an uncontrolled pandemic that winds up killing millions, I don't see how that doesn't cause a depression on its own. People will be afraid to go out or to go to work. (For a week before my workplace got the shut down order, half our staff had already stopped showing up.) This bug starts killing people significantly (above the norm for flu) in their 50s, which means it'll kill many highly-experienced and high-income workers. Spending by the boomers is still a significant boost to the economy, much as people my age grumble about their 3-week vacations and boats and whatnot.

    Finally, beyond just the hard economic calculations, I'm opposed to knowingly putting many people's lives at risk to boost the economy because it's wrong. It's the same reason I oppose (as I assume most readers of this blog do) allowing open borders and free replacement of American workers with foreign labor that might be more productive or cheaper, even if it might boost the GDP (as proponents of such proposals have invested a lot of time in trying to demonstrate). We're supposed to be a country with an economy, not an economy with a country. Western civilization moved beyond human sacrifice for the sake of bountiful harvests some time ago, and we shouldn't go back.
  231. @Thomas

    Men are supposed to be able to reason, even when the shit is hitting the fan.
     
    Reasoning includes being able to look at the objective statistical evidence and to see how deadly this thing is.

    I have a mother who is 70 (hardly "God's waiting room") but has asthma, and a daughter who isn't yet 3. I'd like for my daughter to get a few years to know her grandmother, and vice versa.

    Oh, and I also finished my education and entered the job market in 2011, right along with everyone else who thought they were "waiting out" the last recession in higher ed. (More fool us.) So I have no time for handwringing about "America's future" being threatened by a recession or even a depression. We've been through them before. The country survived.

    Maybe it won't be such a picnic though for folks who left their retirement portfolios tilted a little too much towards growth vs. income a little too close to retirement. That wouldn't be you, guy in his 60s, would it?

    Men are supposed to be able to reason, even when the shit is hitting the fan.

    Reasoning includes being able to look at the objective statistical evidence and to see how deadly this thing is.

    Thomas, i–and several other folks–have given you the “objective statistical evidence” time and time again. (You don’t want to lose your mom–a natural, honorable emotion. But it doesn’t throw reason out the window.)

    I just gave you Italy, the hardest hit nation:
    https://jamanetwork.com/journals/jama/fullarticle/2763667

    This is their nonni killer. The deaths are almost all elderly and/or in poor health, people who would likely die in the next 5 or 10. (The sort of people the seasonal flu harvests.)

    If this data were the other way around–the kids getting slaughtered (something much more analogous to the War)–i’d be “lock this bitch down!” Farmers, oilmen, coal miners, power, water, sewer, food processing+delivery, and critical medical folks go to work. Everyone else stay home. I’d be fine with empty streets and cops enforcing it with guns drawn.

    Our kids are the nation’s future.

    But this epidemic isn’t that. It is hammering people near the end of their lives–mostly either lived it, or took poor care of themselves (obesity, smoking, etc.) It’s 10 seasons of flu culling rolled into one. I’m on board with harsh measures for a short period to get it under control and be able to move into a regime of contact tracing. (I’m still waiting to see some basic respiratory epidemic seriousness–masks.)

    But a depression for this?

    Cost benefit is real. There are a heck of a lot of ways we could have spent 4 trillion and saved more lives–and way, way more “years of life”. Highway safety improvements? Mandatory drunk-driving interlocks? A Devil’s Island to dump our criminals? A wall on the border? Cancer research? Infectious disease/vaccine research? Aging research?

    A depression also takes lives–ones that matter a whole lot more. Young Americans need jobs to move on in life and start families. I’m hoping for an American baby boom come Christmas. But generally young women–at least those from civilized “population groups”–want their husband to have a job and be able to support them and their baby before they “lie back and think of England America”

    Life has tradeoffs. Sound judgment is working through them for the best long run outcome for the nation, not “the sky is falling” hysterics, not even about losing elderly loved ones.

  232. @Lot
    “ mostly just a really crappy one-way contract that screws males. ”

    If the sole benefit to men were legitimate children, still worth it.

    The thing is, in no-fault divorce states, even legitimate children isn’t guaranteed. Well to put it another way, if the man discovers the children aren’t his, there isn’t much he can do about it.

    • Agree: Achmed E. Newman
  233. @AnotherDad


    Men are supposed to be able to reason, even when the shit is hitting the fan.
     
    Reasoning includes being able to look at the objective statistical evidence and to see how deadly this thing is.
     
    Thomas, i--and several other folks--have given you the "objective statistical evidence" time and time again. You don't want to lose your mom--a natural emotion.

    I just gave you Italy, the hardest hit nation:
    https://jamanetwork.com/journals/jama/fullarticle/2763667

    This is their nonni killer. The deaths are almost all elderly and/or in poor health, people who would likely die in the next 5 or 10. (The sort of people the seasonal flu harvests.)


    If this data were the other way around--the kids getting slaughtered (something much more analogous to the War)--i'd be all "lock this bitch down!"

    Farmers, oilmen, coal miners, power, water, sewer, food processing+delivery, and critical medical folks go to work. Everyone else stay home. I'd be fine with empty streets and cops enforcing it with guns drawn.

    Our kids are the nation's future.


    But this epidemic isn't that. It is hammering people near the end of their lives--mostly either lived it, or took poor care of themselves (obesity, smoking, etc.) It's 10 seasons of flu culling rolled into one.

    I'm on board with harsh measures for a short period to get it under control and be able to move into a regime of contact tracing. (I'm still waiting to see some basic respiratory epidemic seriousness--masks.)

    But a depression for this?

    Cost benefit is real. There are a heck of a lot of ways we could have spent 4 trillion and saved more lives--and way, way more "years of life". Highway safety improvements? Mandatory drunk-driving interlocks? A Devil's Island to dump our criminals? A wall on the border? Cancer research? Infectious disease/vaccine research? Aging research?

    A depression also takes lives--ones that matter a whole lot more. Young Americans need jobs to move on in life and start families. I'm hoping for an American baby boom come Christmas. But generally young women--at least those from civilized "population groups"--want their husband to have a job and be able to support them and their baby before they "lie back and think of England America"

    Life has tradeoffs. Sound judgment is working through them for the best long run outcome for the nation, not "the sky is falling" hysterics, not even about losing elderly loved ones.

    But a depression for this?

    From my standpoint, it’s the worries about a depression that are hysterical. Not the least because they started less than two weeks into what’s only a partial shutdown affecting a third of the country. And because they came from people I’m convinced really would be ok with millions of Americans dead for a bounce in the Dow (Lloyd Blankfein, the private equity and hedge fund vulture capitalists Trump was huddling with last week, various Koch and Wilks brothers mouthpieces, and so forth). I strongly suspect the “shot” isn’t so much getting the actual economy back to work for the little guy as much as it is giving some people who took it in the shorts over the last month a window to close out their hold positions. “How bad could this virus get in a couple weeks, right?”

    This isn’t like previous recessions, where Wall Street screwed us with their various financial gimmicks: CDOs, CDSs, MBSs, leverage, junk bonds, or what not. This is an exogenous shock to the system that nobody caused and nobody could have predicted. You can think of it like the country getting hit with a really big snowstorm all at once. It reflects nothing about the underlying health of the economy before the event. (Though I’ll concede that this could be the trigger for underlying weaknesses in the economy to give way, the way the 1929 crash was. If that’s the case though, a recession was inevitable anyway.) A significant share of economic activity has just halted, but capital stock is still in place. Workers still have all their skills. When the “all-clear” comes, there’s going to be a glut of pent-up demand that will need to be satisfied.

    We probably can ride this out with some smart and targeted adjustments both on an individual and a policymaking level. (Some suggestions in this piece: https://www.nytimes.com/2020/03/30/opinion/coronavirus-economy-saez-zucman.html) Creditors of various types like landlords and lenders may need to accept they’ll have to wait a little bit to get paid. There will have to be some general belt-tightening for everybody. Personal financial advisors recommend keeping the equivalent of three months of income for emergencies but there’s no chance most Americans have done this. (The Chinese save much more than we do, which is one reason I’m sure the quarantine in Hubei wasn’t as much of a problem for them.) People are going to have to hold on to what cash they have as best they can and get over being too proud to work out arrangements with their lenders and landlords. (Courts are at least partially shut down now too in many places under lockdown orders, at least for in-person hearings and jury trials, so nobody is going to be getting a judgment on a debt for a while anyway.)

    We’ve dealt with many more recessions in recent history than we have deadly pandemics, about eight or nine by my count in the last century compared to one. We have better tools and more flexibility to deal with the former than we do the latter, as should be obvious by now. It isn’t as if the entire economy has shut down either. Amazon and Target are supposedly greatly in need of help right now. This pandemic is causing a boom in some sectors even if its suppressing economic activity overall.

    And also, frankly, if we do allow this to turn into an uncontrolled pandemic that winds up killing millions, I don’t see how that doesn’t cause a depression on its own. People will be afraid to go out or to go to work. (For a week before my workplace got the shut down order, half our staff had already stopped showing up.) This bug starts killing people significantly (above the norm for flu) in their 50s, which means it’ll kill many highly-experienced and high-income workers. Spending by the boomers is still a significant boost to the economy, much as people my age grumble about their 3-week vacations and boats and whatnot.

    Finally, beyond just the hard economic calculations, I’m opposed to knowingly putting many people’s lives at risk to boost the economy because it’s wrong. It’s the same reason I oppose (as I assume most readers of this blog do) allowing open borders and free replacement of American workers with foreign labor that might be more productive or cheaper, even if it might boost the GDP (as proponents of such proposals have invested a lot of time in trying to demonstrate). We’re supposed to be a country with an economy, not an economy with a country. Western civilization moved beyond human sacrifice for the sake of bountiful harvests some time ago, and we shouldn’t go back.

    • Replies: @Jack D

    When the “all-clear” comes, there’s going to be a glut of pent-up demand that will need to be satisfied.
     
    First of all, by the time the "all-clear" comes, it's going to be too late for a lot of small businesses. 2nd, the pandemic has, I fear, permanently shifted demand in some fields. I don't think the cruise business is ever going to come back in the same way. Boeing now is in real danger because the long term demand for airplanes has probably permanently gone down. Now that people have lost the habit of shopping in retail stores and get all their stuff online, they may realize that they like the convenience. Lots of malls and retail chains were already doing poorly and this will be the last nail in their coffin. People have been cooking at home and maybe they notice that their food costs have gone down by 75% and it's stupid to pay $24 for 1/4th of 1 chicken in a restaurant when you can buy a whole one for $6.

    There are going to be some winners too, but I fear more losers than winners. For better or for worse, the globalism that we had before is not coming back in quite the same way, at least not for many years. Now I know this makes a lot of people here glad and there is some reason to be glad about this (although if I had to bet, the "bad" parts of globalism will stick around and the "good" parts will be more hurt - it's like when you spray chemicals and it kills all the songbirds but the rats are fine.) But it's not without a price.

  234. @Steve Sailer
    What if elevators are a peculiarly high risk?

    I think that it’s not a coincidence that the biggest epidemic in the US is in our most densely packed city. But I would bet that most of the risk of elevators (indeed most of the risk of coronavirus) is from being in them with other people, not from touching the buttons, etc. (which most people have taken to doing with pencils, etc.). And from what I understand from my friends in NY, the new etiquette in apartment buildings is that you get the elevator to yourself. The high # of cases that we are seeing now is because the “new rules” are extremely recent and people are getting sick now based on the rules that were in place 2 weeks ago.

    • Replies: @Anonymous

    But I would bet that most of the risk of elevators (indeed most of the risk of coronavirus) is from being in them with other people, not from touching the buttons, etc. (which most people have taken to doing with pencils, etc.).
     
    Reportedly, this isn’t an airborne virus, unless you consider someone coughing directly into someone’s face at close range to be airborne transmission.
  235. @Thomas

    But a depression for this?
     
    From my standpoint, it's the worries about a depression that are hysterical. Not the least because they started less than two weeks into what's only a partial shutdown affecting a third of the country. And because they came from people I'm convinced really would be ok with millions of Americans dead for a bounce in the Dow (Lloyd Blankfein, the private equity and hedge fund vulture capitalists Trump was huddling with last week, various Koch and Wilks brothers mouthpieces, and so forth). I strongly suspect the "shot" isn't so much getting the actual economy back to work for the little guy as much as it is giving some people who took it in the shorts over the last month a window to close out their hold positions. "How bad could this virus get in a couple weeks, right?"

    This isn't like previous recessions, where Wall Street screwed us with their various financial gimmicks: CDOs, CDSs, MBSs, leverage, junk bonds, or what not. This is an exogenous shock to the system that nobody caused and nobody could have predicted. You can think of it like the country getting hit with a really big snowstorm all at once. It reflects nothing about the underlying health of the economy before the event. (Though I'll concede that this could be the trigger for underlying weaknesses in the economy to give way, the way the 1929 crash was. If that's the case though, a recession was inevitable anyway.) A significant share of economic activity has just halted, but capital stock is still in place. Workers still have all their skills. When the "all-clear" comes, there's going to be a glut of pent-up demand that will need to be satisfied.

    We probably can ride this out with some smart and targeted adjustments both on an individual and a policymaking level. (Some suggestions in this piece: https://www.nytimes.com/2020/03/30/opinion/coronavirus-economy-saez-zucman.html) Creditors of various types like landlords and lenders may need to accept they'll have to wait a little bit to get paid. There will have to be some general belt-tightening for everybody. Personal financial advisors recommend keeping the equivalent of three months of income for emergencies but there's no chance most Americans have done this. (The Chinese save much more than we do, which is one reason I'm sure the quarantine in Hubei wasn't as much of a problem for them.) People are going to have to hold on to what cash they have as best they can and get over being too proud to work out arrangements with their lenders and landlords. (Courts are at least partially shut down now too in many places under lockdown orders, at least for in-person hearings and jury trials, so nobody is going to be getting a judgment on a debt for a while anyway.)

    We've dealt with many more recessions in recent history than we have deadly pandemics, about eight or nine by my count in the last century compared to one. We have better tools and more flexibility to deal with the former than we do the latter, as should be obvious by now. It isn't as if the entire economy has shut down either. Amazon and Target are supposedly greatly in need of help right now. This pandemic is causing a boom in some sectors even if its suppressing economic activity overall.

    And also, frankly, if we do allow this to turn into an uncontrolled pandemic that winds up killing millions, I don't see how that doesn't cause a depression on its own. People will be afraid to go out or to go to work. (For a week before my workplace got the shut down order, half our staff had already stopped showing up.) This bug starts killing people significantly (above the norm for flu) in their 50s, which means it'll kill many highly-experienced and high-income workers. Spending by the boomers is still a significant boost to the economy, much as people my age grumble about their 3-week vacations and boats and whatnot.

    Finally, beyond just the hard economic calculations, I'm opposed to knowingly putting many people's lives at risk to boost the economy because it's wrong. It's the same reason I oppose (as I assume most readers of this blog do) allowing open borders and free replacement of American workers with foreign labor that might be more productive or cheaper, even if it might boost the GDP (as proponents of such proposals have invested a lot of time in trying to demonstrate). We're supposed to be a country with an economy, not an economy with a country. Western civilization moved beyond human sacrifice for the sake of bountiful harvests some time ago, and we shouldn't go back.

    When the “all-clear” comes, there’s going to be a glut of pent-up demand that will need to be satisfied.

    First of all, by the time the “all-clear” comes, it’s going to be too late for a lot of small businesses. 2nd, the pandemic has, I fear, permanently shifted demand in some fields. I don’t think the cruise business is ever going to come back in the same way. Boeing now is in real danger because the long term demand for airplanes has probably permanently gone down. Now that people have lost the habit of shopping in retail stores and get all their stuff online, they may realize that they like the convenience. Lots of malls and retail chains were already doing poorly and this will be the last nail in their coffin. People have been cooking at home and maybe they notice that their food costs have gone down by 75% and it’s stupid to pay $24 for 1/4th of 1 chicken in a restaurant when you can buy a whole one for $6.

    There are going to be some winners too, but I fear more losers than winners. For better or for worse, the globalism that we had before is not coming back in quite the same way, at least not for many years. Now I know this makes a lot of people here glad and there is some reason to be glad about this (although if I had to bet, the “bad” parts of globalism will stick around and the “good” parts will be more hurt – it’s like when you spray chemicals and it kills all the songbirds but the rats are fine.) But it’s not without a price.

    • Replies: @Intelligent Dasein

    Now that people have lost the habit of shopping in retail stores and get all their stuff online, they may realize that they like the convenience.
     
    Jack, I agree very much with the main thrust of your comment. I have a different take on this portion, however.

    The gig economy doessn't work unless there is a real economy to parasitize, and these delivery jobs, along with sharing services and all the other "disruptive" stuff, is very much a part of the gig economy. Gig workers are sick and tired of being the poorly paid lackies of the aloof suburban soccer mom demographic---witness Amazon employees calling for a strike as we speak---and unless they are very poorly paid indeed, the economics of the whole suburban/gig ecosystem just doesn't pan out.

    We are heading towards a situation where neither mall-style retail nor online retail can survive. I belive the eventual work-out is going to involve something I like to call de-branding or de-corporatization. In short, I believe we are going to see a reduction in the number and variety of value-added projects, and a corresponding reduction in the number, size, and complexity of business concerns. For example, instead of turning semolina into a million different shapes of mac--n-cheese (you know, we've got to have the Spongebob and the ninja turtles and the Toy Story, etc.), we just ship the flour across the country and sell it in bulk for a fraction of the cost. Local shops can make the pasta, and we can dispense with the Kraft corportation and the retail space it occupied, as well as the patterns of life such an arrangement necessitated.

    We still have our railways and waterways. We can build our own tractors. We have enough native petroleum to supply our farms with fuel and fertilizer. We can still feed everybody. There is plenty of work to be done rebuilding our infrastructure and manufacturing base, at a more human scale this time. We've got iron ore, coal, other minerals, lumber, and good land in abundance. We can give every American a decent life without globalism. But we need to take back the economic mojo from the finance sector and get rid of consumerism and corporate bigness.
    , @Jenner Ickham Errican
    What you’re describing above will likely make the United States structurally stronger long term. Towards “antifragile” as Taleb would say.

    But it’s not without a price.
     
    Of course. But better to pay a smaller price now than a much bigger price later. The latter applies both to what we don’t yet know about the Wuhan Flu and the broader mistake of increasing our slide into globalist ensnarement.

    The COVID shutdown incidentally happens to work as a somewhat controlled stress test to see what American society can handle (so far I haven’t seen any communal mass murder or infrastructure/utilities collapse).
    , @Thomas

    First of all, by the time the “all-clear” comes, it’s going to be too late for a lot of small businesses.
     
    I'm getting a feeling that "the small businesses" is the new "crops rotting in the fields" as an economic scare story. I don't doubt that small businesses that depend on in-person foot traffic are hurting terribly right now. But I also don't really see the economy collapsing for want of restaurants, nail salons, hipster bars, barbershops, or other types of businesses that operate in similar markets for which demand is normally fairly stable and which exist in near-perfect competition anyway. A huge proportion of small businesses fold every year under any circumstances and get replaced by new ones. It's a highly uncertain enterprise. I'm not dismissing that the failure of a small business is a tragedy to its owners, but I don't see the case for why even a mass failure of that sort necessarily creates a systemic problem. Especially, as noted, in markets approaching perfect competition (with low barriers to entry) and for which future demand (after the current crisis) can reasonably be expected to return to a stable level.

    2nd, the pandemic has, I fear, permanently shifted demand in some fields.
     
    That's going to be the case regardless of the shutdowns and lockdowns, and, as you sort of note, is merely a continuation or acceleration of existing trends. Brick-and-mortar retail was already going through a "pandemic" of its own. And Boeing is seeing the worst year in its history stretching into the indefinite future, although that began with its own ill-advised decision to cut engineering corners more than anything. Boeing, at least, is universally acknowledged as being "too big to fail." It'll get bailed out and will continue to feed from the defense procurement trough no matter what happens.
  236. @Keypusher

    Employment. If your employee manual contains some sort of promised benefit, the employer gets to change it unilaterally when it becomes inconvenient, if you haven’t yet cashed in. And even assuming the provision is held to be “vested,” you still lose your case if you lied on your resume. This sounds like a joke, but it’s true. It’s called the After-Acquired Evidence doctrine.
     
    Everything in that paragraph is utter bullshit. The employer might get away with unilateral changes in the manual, if it has made clear that it has the right to do so. And yes, IAAL.

    I was in the courtroom in the first wrongful discharge case in California history, 1982. I bet you never represented a plaintiff in an employment case.

    • Replies: @Keypusher
    So (i) what the hell happened to you then (ii) how am I finding reported wrongful discharge cases from California in the 1950s?

    You are posting utter crap, Marty.
  237. @Jack D

    When the “all-clear” comes, there’s going to be a glut of pent-up demand that will need to be satisfied.
     
    First of all, by the time the "all-clear" comes, it's going to be too late for a lot of small businesses. 2nd, the pandemic has, I fear, permanently shifted demand in some fields. I don't think the cruise business is ever going to come back in the same way. Boeing now is in real danger because the long term demand for airplanes has probably permanently gone down. Now that people have lost the habit of shopping in retail stores and get all their stuff online, they may realize that they like the convenience. Lots of malls and retail chains were already doing poorly and this will be the last nail in their coffin. People have been cooking at home and maybe they notice that their food costs have gone down by 75% and it's stupid to pay $24 for 1/4th of 1 chicken in a restaurant when you can buy a whole one for $6.

    There are going to be some winners too, but I fear more losers than winners. For better or for worse, the globalism that we had before is not coming back in quite the same way, at least not for many years. Now I know this makes a lot of people here glad and there is some reason to be glad about this (although if I had to bet, the "bad" parts of globalism will stick around and the "good" parts will be more hurt - it's like when you spray chemicals and it kills all the songbirds but the rats are fine.) But it's not without a price.

    Now that people have lost the habit of shopping in retail stores and get all their stuff online, they may realize that they like the convenience.

    Jack, I agree very much with the main thrust of your comment. I have a different take on this portion, however.

    The gig economy doessn’t work unless there is a real economy to parasitize, and these delivery jobs, along with sharing services and all the other “disruptive” stuff, is very much a part of the gig economy. Gig workers are sick and tired of being the poorly paid lackies of the aloof suburban soccer mom demographic—witness Amazon employees calling for a strike as we speak—and unless they are very poorly paid indeed, the economics of the whole suburban/gig ecosystem just doesn’t pan out.

    We are heading towards a situation where neither mall-style retail nor online retail can survive. I belive the eventual work-out is going to involve something I like to call de-branding or de-corporatization. In short, I believe we are going to see a reduction in the number and variety of value-added projects, and a corresponding reduction in the number, size, and complexity of business concerns. For example, instead of turning semolina into a million different shapes of mac–n-cheese (you know, we’ve got to have the Spongebob and the ninja turtles and the Toy Story, etc.), we just ship the flour across the country and sell it in bulk for a fraction of the cost. Local shops can make the pasta, and we can dispense with the Kraft corportation and the retail space it occupied, as well as the patterns of life such an arrangement necessitated.

    We still have our railways and waterways. We can build our own tractors. We have enough native petroleum to supply our farms with fuel and fertilizer. We can still feed everybody. There is plenty of work to be done rebuilding our infrastructure and manufacturing base, at a more human scale this time. We’ve got iron ore, coal, other minerals, lumber, and good land in abundance. We can give every American a decent life without globalism. But we need to take back the economic mojo from the finance sector and get rid of consumerism and corporate bigness.

    • Replies: @Jack D

    Gig workers are sick and tired of being the poorly paid lackies of the aloof suburban soccer mom demographic—witness Amazon employees calling for a strike as we speak—and unless they are very poorly paid indeed, the economics of the whole suburban/gig ecosystem just doesn’t pan out.
     
    This is where Marx's "reserve army of the unemployed at the factory gates" comes in (except that part of the reserve army is made up of robots and drones). The Amazon strike will go nowhere. Millions of people have just lost their jobs and when the unemployment runs out, $15/hr at Amazon will look MIGHTY attractive compared to the alternatives.

    In short, I believe we are going to see a reduction in the number and variety of value-added projects, and a corresponding reduction in the number, size, and complexity of business concerns. For example, instead of turning semolina into a million different shapes of mac–n-cheese (you know, we’ve got to have the Spongebob and the ninja turtles and the Toy Story, etc.), we just ship the flour across the country and sell it in bulk for a fraction of the cost. Local shops can make the pasta, and we can dispense with the Kraft corportation and the retail space it occupied, as well as the patterns of life such an arrangement necessitated.
     
    This is a fantasy. Economies of scale are real (especially when you move the Kraft factory to Mexico - that's where many Kraft-Nabisco ("Modelez") cookies come from nowadays. And with oil extra cheap, shipping costs will be even lower. And people want brand name goods - they don't just want any macaroni and cheese, they want KRAFT Mac 'n Cheese with the Teenage Mutant Ninja Turtle ® shapes. In places like Brooklyn and SF where childless white collar workers have $ to burn, they can afford $10/lb. "artisanal' mac and cheese but the zhlub making $15/hr delivering for Grub Hub counts himself lucky if he can afford the .99 cent/box stuff at Target instead of the 2/$1 Made in Turkey or Egypt knockoff at the Dollar Store.

    We are not going to have LESS corporate bigness, we are going to have MORE. When the dust settles on this Amazon is going to have an even bigger piece of the retail pie than ever and the weakest mom and pops will get pushed out. I wish it was otherwise, but it ain't gonna be that way.
  238. @Keypusher
    At Worldometers, the day is reset after midnight GMT+0, which is to say 8:00 pm on the east coast and 5:00 pm on the west coast. I usually check the Europe numbers after 8:00 pm and the US numbers the next morning (I’m in NY), because the US numbers sometimes get added to late.

    Yesterday was the first across-the-board good day for W. Europe and the USA that I’ve seen (but I’ve only been doing this regularly since the 23rd).

    Speaking of which, worldometer jumped its US totals for yesterday to 363 (up from 264) and cases from 18K something to 19K something.

    This doesn’t seem to happen with the numbers from Europe. Use with caution, I guess.

  239. @Marty
    I was in the courtroom in the first wrongful discharge case in California history, 1982. I bet you never represented a plaintiff in an employment case.

    So (i) what the hell happened to you then (ii) how am I finding reported wrongful discharge cases from California in the 1950s?

    You are posting utter crap, Marty.

    • Replies: @Marty
    You’re really something. California employment was entirely at-will before Joseph Grodin single-handedly created an exception with his 1981 Pugh opinion. Once again, you’ve never represented an individual plaintiff, right? You’re a big-firm lawyer who represents corporate defendants, and have never faced a jury.
  240. Anonymous[211] • Disclaimer says:
    @Jack D
    I think that it's not a coincidence that the biggest epidemic in the US is in our most densely packed city. But I would bet that most of the risk of elevators (indeed most of the risk of coronavirus) is from being in them with other people, not from touching the buttons, etc. (which most people have taken to doing with pencils, etc.). And from what I understand from my friends in NY, the new etiquette in apartment buildings is that you get the elevator to yourself. The high # of cases that we are seeing now is because the "new rules" are extremely recent and people are getting sick now based on the rules that were in place 2 weeks ago.

    But I would bet that most of the risk of elevators (indeed most of the risk of coronavirus) is from being in them with other people, not from touching the buttons, etc. (which most people have taken to doing with pencils, etc.).

    Reportedly, this isn’t an airborne virus, unless you consider someone coughing directly into someone’s face at close range to be airborne transmission.

  241. @Jack D

    When the “all-clear” comes, there’s going to be a glut of pent-up demand that will need to be satisfied.
     
    First of all, by the time the "all-clear" comes, it's going to be too late for a lot of small businesses. 2nd, the pandemic has, I fear, permanently shifted demand in some fields. I don't think the cruise business is ever going to come back in the same way. Boeing now is in real danger because the long term demand for airplanes has probably permanently gone down. Now that people have lost the habit of shopping in retail stores and get all their stuff online, they may realize that they like the convenience. Lots of malls and retail chains were already doing poorly and this will be the last nail in their coffin. People have been cooking at home and maybe they notice that their food costs have gone down by 75% and it's stupid to pay $24 for 1/4th of 1 chicken in a restaurant when you can buy a whole one for $6.

    There are going to be some winners too, but I fear more losers than winners. For better or for worse, the globalism that we had before is not coming back in quite the same way, at least not for many years. Now I know this makes a lot of people here glad and there is some reason to be glad about this (although if I had to bet, the "bad" parts of globalism will stick around and the "good" parts will be more hurt - it's like when you spray chemicals and it kills all the songbirds but the rats are fine.) But it's not without a price.

    What you’re describing above will likely make the United States structurally stronger long term. Towards “antifragile” as Taleb would say.

    But it’s not without a price.

    Of course. But better to pay a smaller price now than a much bigger price later. The latter applies both to what we don’t yet know about the Wuhan Flu and the broader mistake of increasing our slide into globalist ensnarement.

    The COVID shutdown incidentally happens to work as a somewhat controlled stress test to see what American society can handle (so far I haven’t seen any communal mass murder or infrastructure/utilities collapse).

  242. @Intelligent Dasein

    Now that people have lost the habit of shopping in retail stores and get all their stuff online, they may realize that they like the convenience.
     
    Jack, I agree very much with the main thrust of your comment. I have a different take on this portion, however.

    The gig economy doessn't work unless there is a real economy to parasitize, and these delivery jobs, along with sharing services and all the other "disruptive" stuff, is very much a part of the gig economy. Gig workers are sick and tired of being the poorly paid lackies of the aloof suburban soccer mom demographic---witness Amazon employees calling for a strike as we speak---and unless they are very poorly paid indeed, the economics of the whole suburban/gig ecosystem just doesn't pan out.

    We are heading towards a situation where neither mall-style retail nor online retail can survive. I belive the eventual work-out is going to involve something I like to call de-branding or de-corporatization. In short, I believe we are going to see a reduction in the number and variety of value-added projects, and a corresponding reduction in the number, size, and complexity of business concerns. For example, instead of turning semolina into a million different shapes of mac--n-cheese (you know, we've got to have the Spongebob and the ninja turtles and the Toy Story, etc.), we just ship the flour across the country and sell it in bulk for a fraction of the cost. Local shops can make the pasta, and we can dispense with the Kraft corportation and the retail space it occupied, as well as the patterns of life such an arrangement necessitated.

    We still have our railways and waterways. We can build our own tractors. We have enough native petroleum to supply our farms with fuel and fertilizer. We can still feed everybody. There is plenty of work to be done rebuilding our infrastructure and manufacturing base, at a more human scale this time. We've got iron ore, coal, other minerals, lumber, and good land in abundance. We can give every American a decent life without globalism. But we need to take back the economic mojo from the finance sector and get rid of consumerism and corporate bigness.

    Gig workers are sick and tired of being the poorly paid lackies of the aloof suburban soccer mom demographic—witness Amazon employees calling for a strike as we speak—and unless they are very poorly paid indeed, the economics of the whole suburban/gig ecosystem just doesn’t pan out.

    This is where Marx’s “reserve army of the unemployed at the factory gates” comes in (except that part of the reserve army is made up of robots and drones). The Amazon strike will go nowhere. Millions of people have just lost their jobs and when the unemployment runs out, $15/hr at Amazon will look MIGHTY attractive compared to the alternatives.

    In short, I believe we are going to see a reduction in the number and variety of value-added projects, and a corresponding reduction in the number, size, and complexity of business concerns. For example, instead of turning semolina into a million different shapes of mac–n-cheese (you know, we’ve got to have the Spongebob and the ninja turtles and the Toy Story, etc.), we just ship the flour across the country and sell it in bulk for a fraction of the cost. Local shops can make the pasta, and we can dispense with the Kraft corportation and the retail space it occupied, as well as the patterns of life such an arrangement necessitated.

    This is a fantasy. Economies of scale are real (especially when you move the Kraft factory to Mexico – that’s where many Kraft-Nabisco (“Modelez”) cookies come from nowadays. And with oil extra cheap, shipping costs will be even lower. And people want brand name goods – they don’t just want any macaroni and cheese, they want KRAFT Mac ‘n Cheese with the Teenage Mutant Ninja Turtle ® shapes. In places like Brooklyn and SF where childless white collar workers have $ to burn, they can afford $10/lb. “artisanal’ mac and cheese but the zhlub making $15/hr delivering for Grub Hub counts himself lucky if he can afford the .99 cent/box stuff at Target instead of the 2/$1 Made in Turkey or Egypt knockoff at the Dollar Store.

    We are not going to have LESS corporate bigness, we are going to have MORE. When the dust settles on this Amazon is going to have an even bigger piece of the retail pie than ever and the weakest mom and pops will get pushed out. I wish it was otherwise, but it ain’t gonna be that way.

  243. @eD
    "Anthony Fauci published a paper in the New England Journal of Medicine that said that Covid was like a severe flu and that the death rate would be the same as the flu, at 0.1%"

    I saw this and I was going to post this. While the lockdowns have been ramping up, the medical establishment has been quietly walking back some of their wilder claims.

    Here is the New England Journal of Medicine article:

    https://www.nejm.org/doi/full/10.1056/NEJMe2002387

    Note that I am now reading elsewhere that the article is being scrubbed from the internet, but if that is the case and someone posts it, I'll post the extract.

    That njem article (which is available at the link you posted afaict) doesn’t say it’s 0.1%…
    it says it’s “more akin to … 0.1% than to … 10% or 36%”

    This suggests that the overall clinical consequences of Covid-19 may ultimately be more akin to those of a severe seasonal influenza (which has a case fatality rate of approximately 0.1%) or a pandemic influenza (similar to those in 1957 and 1968) rather than a disease similar to SARS or MERS, which have had case fatality rates of 9 to 10% and 36%, respectively.2

    In this other arrive 1 day later they mention the lowest seen so far is Singapore at 0.3% CFR

    https://www.thelancet.com/journals/laninf/article/PIIS1473-3099(20)30244-9/fulltext

  244. @Paleo Liberal
    Just too weird.

    Newsom and Trump Jr have both been known to make stupid decisions involving women in their lives.

    Haven’t we all?

  245. @Jack D

    When the “all-clear” comes, there’s going to be a glut of pent-up demand that will need to be satisfied.
     
    First of all, by the time the "all-clear" comes, it's going to be too late for a lot of small businesses. 2nd, the pandemic has, I fear, permanently shifted demand in some fields. I don't think the cruise business is ever going to come back in the same way. Boeing now is in real danger because the long term demand for airplanes has probably permanently gone down. Now that people have lost the habit of shopping in retail stores and get all their stuff online, they may realize that they like the convenience. Lots of malls and retail chains were already doing poorly and this will be the last nail in their coffin. People have been cooking at home and maybe they notice that their food costs have gone down by 75% and it's stupid to pay $24 for 1/4th of 1 chicken in a restaurant when you can buy a whole one for $6.

    There are going to be some winners too, but I fear more losers than winners. For better or for worse, the globalism that we had before is not coming back in quite the same way, at least not for many years. Now I know this makes a lot of people here glad and there is some reason to be glad about this (although if I had to bet, the "bad" parts of globalism will stick around and the "good" parts will be more hurt - it's like when you spray chemicals and it kills all the songbirds but the rats are fine.) But it's not without a price.

    First of all, by the time the “all-clear” comes, it’s going to be too late for a lot of small businesses.

    I’m getting a feeling that “the small businesses” is the new “crops rotting in the fields” as an economic scare story. I don’t doubt that small businesses that depend on in-person foot traffic are hurting terribly right now. But I also don’t really see the economy collapsing for want of restaurants, nail salons, hipster bars, barbershops, or other types of businesses that operate in similar markets for which demand is normally fairly stable and which exist in near-perfect competition anyway. A huge proportion of small businesses fold every year under any circumstances and get replaced by new ones. It’s a highly uncertain enterprise. I’m not dismissing that the failure of a small business is a tragedy to its owners, but I don’t see the case for why even a mass failure of that sort necessarily creates a systemic problem. Especially, as noted, in markets approaching perfect competition (with low barriers to entry) and for which future demand (after the current crisis) can reasonably be expected to return to a stable level.

    2nd, the pandemic has, I fear, permanently shifted demand in some fields.

    That’s going to be the case regardless of the shutdowns and lockdowns, and, as you sort of note, is merely a continuation or acceleration of existing trends. Brick-and-mortar retail was already going through a “pandemic” of its own. And Boeing is seeing the worst year in its history stretching into the indefinite future, although that began with its own ill-advised decision to cut engineering corners more than anything. Boeing, at least, is universally acknowledged as being “too big to fail.” It’ll get bailed out and will continue to feed from the defense procurement trough no matter what happens.

    • Replies: @Jack D

    for which future demand (after the current crisis) can reasonably be expected to return to a stable level.
     
    That's the problem with your response -you're begging the question. You are assuming (on the basis of nothing) that demand is going to return to pre-Virus levels. Of course if demand went back to that level, everything would be great - the economy was doing great until the day that the Chinese decide to make bat soup in Wuhan. But there are many indications (e.g massive unemployment) that demand is NOT going to return to those levels, possibly for many years and in the case of some businesses, maybe never.
  246. @Thomas

    First of all, by the time the “all-clear” comes, it’s going to be too late for a lot of small businesses.
     
    I'm getting a feeling that "the small businesses" is the new "crops rotting in the fields" as an economic scare story. I don't doubt that small businesses that depend on in-person foot traffic are hurting terribly right now. But I also don't really see the economy collapsing for want of restaurants, nail salons, hipster bars, barbershops, or other types of businesses that operate in similar markets for which demand is normally fairly stable and which exist in near-perfect competition anyway. A huge proportion of small businesses fold every year under any circumstances and get replaced by new ones. It's a highly uncertain enterprise. I'm not dismissing that the failure of a small business is a tragedy to its owners, but I don't see the case for why even a mass failure of that sort necessarily creates a systemic problem. Especially, as noted, in markets approaching perfect competition (with low barriers to entry) and for which future demand (after the current crisis) can reasonably be expected to return to a stable level.

    2nd, the pandemic has, I fear, permanently shifted demand in some fields.
     
    That's going to be the case regardless of the shutdowns and lockdowns, and, as you sort of note, is merely a continuation or acceleration of existing trends. Brick-and-mortar retail was already going through a "pandemic" of its own. And Boeing is seeing the worst year in its history stretching into the indefinite future, although that began with its own ill-advised decision to cut engineering corners more than anything. Boeing, at least, is universally acknowledged as being "too big to fail." It'll get bailed out and will continue to feed from the defense procurement trough no matter what happens.

    for which future demand (after the current crisis) can reasonably be expected to return to a stable level.

    That’s the problem with your response -you’re begging the question. You are assuming (on the basis of nothing) that demand is going to return to pre-Virus levels. Of course if demand went back to that level, everything would be great – the economy was doing great until the day that the Chinese decide to make bat soup in Wuhan. But there are many indications (e.g massive unemployment) that demand is NOT going to return to those levels, possibly for many years and in the case of some businesses, maybe never.

    • Replies: @Thomas

    But there are many indications (e.g massive unemployment) that demand is NOT going to return to those levels, possibly for many years and in the case of some businesses, maybe never.
     
    LOL. I imagine people will still be in need of haircuts and hamburgers in the terrible post-apocalypse that awaits us. If demand never returned, there would never be a recovery from any recession.
  247. @Keypusher
    So (i) what the hell happened to you then (ii) how am I finding reported wrongful discharge cases from California in the 1950s?

    You are posting utter crap, Marty.

    You’re really something. California employment was entirely at-will before Joseph Grodin single-handedly created an exception with his 1981 Pugh opinion. Once again, you’ve never represented an individual plaintiff, right? You’re a big-firm lawyer who represents corporate defendants, and have never faced a jury.

  248. @Jack D

    for which future demand (after the current crisis) can reasonably be expected to return to a stable level.
     
    That's the problem with your response -you're begging the question. You are assuming (on the basis of nothing) that demand is going to return to pre-Virus levels. Of course if demand went back to that level, everything would be great - the economy was doing great until the day that the Chinese decide to make bat soup in Wuhan. But there are many indications (e.g massive unemployment) that demand is NOT going to return to those levels, possibly for many years and in the case of some businesses, maybe never.

    But there are many indications (e.g massive unemployment) that demand is NOT going to return to those levels, possibly for many years and in the case of some businesses, maybe never.

    LOL. I imagine people will still be in need of haircuts and hamburgers in the terrible post-apocalypse that awaits us. If demand never returned, there would never be a recovery from any recession.

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