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In the Washington Examiner, the great election analyst Michael Barone explains what happened last week:
A House popular vote majority produced few seats but is a good sign for Republicans in 2024
by Michael Barone, Senior Political Analyst |
November 16, 2022 04:46 PMOne of the puzzles in this year’s surprising and unpredicted (including by me) off-year election results is why the Republicans’ 51% to 47% win in the popular vote for House of Representatives did not produce a majority bigger than the apparent 221-214 result. (All numbers here are subject to revision in line with final returns.)
That 51% to 47% margin is identical to Joe Biden’s and Barack Obama’s popular vote margins in 2020 and 2012, respectively. It is just one digit off from George W. Bush’s 51% to 48% win in 2004. It’s almost identical to House Democrats’ 51% to 48% popular vote margin in 2020, which yielded them an almost identical 222-213 majority.
Popular vote totals for the House have the complicating feature that 36 of the 435 elections featured an unopposed candidate (24 Republicans were unopposed and 12 Democrats). I don’t know how to adjust for that.
The big contrast is with 2012, when Democrats carried the House popular vote 49% to 48% but won only 201 seats to the Republicans’ 234. How could a party win a 33-seat majority while losing the popular vote, then win only a seven-seat majority while carrying the popular vote by 4 points?
One answer is differential turnout. In 2012, Democrats’ popular vote edge owed much to heavy black turnout to reelect the first black president. But many of those votes came in overwhelmingly black districts and did nothing to elect Democrats elsewhere.
This year, differential turnout worked against Democrats. Central city turnout was way down, as compared to the last off-year election in 2018 — down 19% in New York City but up 0.3% in the suburbs and upstate; down 13% in Philadelphia, but up 8% elsewhere in Pennsylvania; down 15% in Detroit’s Wayne County, but up 6% elsewhere in Michigan; down 12% in Milwaukee County, but up 1% elsewhere in Wisconsin; down 24% in Chicago’s Cook County, down only 8% in Chicago’s collar Counties and downstate.
That reflects population loss in central cities, particularly from black voters leaving the industrial Midwest for the more economically vibrant and culturally congenial metro Atlanta — making Georgia, with the nation’s third highest black percentage, a target state. It also reflects, after four years of skyrocketing crime and stringent lockdowns, waning enthusiasm among heavily Democratic electorates. That’s not a favorable sign for Democratic turnout in 2024.
The second reason is that Republicans failed to harvest significant gains in House seats from their significant gain in popular votes in redistricting. Republicans had a big advantage in partisan redistricting following the 2010 census but only a minimal advantage following the 2020 census.
In particular, Democratic mapmakers and supposedly nonpartisan but liberal-leaning redistricting commissions have no longer felt bound by the Voting Rights Act to pack blacks into black-majority districts — a tactic Republicans have encouraged since the 1990 election cycle because it leaves fewer Democratic voters in adjacent districts.
The 1982 Voting Rights Act says that blacks and Hispanics should be crammed into districts where nonwhite candidates have such a big edge that they are likely to get elected rather than some compromise white candidate with minority support. The VRA has been very good for black Democratic politicians, but not so good for the Democrats as a whole. There are in the outgoing current House 58 black Representatives (13.3% of the House), 56 of them Democrats.
But the VRA encouraged gerrymandering to make House districts black enough that even unattractive black politicians would win. E.g., Barack Obama lost badly to Bobby Rush in the 2000 Democratic House primary. After he came out of his depression, he realized he still had a career path by running for statewide office because whites liked him.
The VRA slowed black ascent to higher offices by leading to a lot of Bobby Rush-style race men getting elected to the House who proved unappealing to statewide voters.
It also benefited the GOP by enabling the Republicans to survive court challenges when they created one district where the Democrats were likely to get 75% of the vote and five where the Republicans were likely to get 55%: Hey, we’re doing it for the blacks.
This worked for decades for the GOP, but, apparently, Democrats have decided to not worry about the language of the law anymore.
Abandonment of this supposedly immutable principle is responsible, for example, for the fact that Michigan elected zero black Democratic congressmen for the first time since 1952. (A black Republican was elected in mostly white, suburban Macomb County.) …
The most important reason for the Republicans’ reduced harvest of House seats has been a reduction in clustering. …
Democratic clustering has diminished in recent years. Part of the reason is that Democratic groups have become less Democratic. Hispanics voted 29% Republican in 2012 but 39% Republican in 2022. The Asian Republican percentage increased from 25% to around 40%, and the black Republican percentage increased from 6% to 13%.
Meanwhile, Republican clustering has increased, in the wide open spaces between the Appalachians and the Rockies, from far-out exurbs, and in Wal-Mart and Dollar General country beyond.
You can see the evidence from which party won seats with supermajorities. In 2012, 71 Democrats and only 32 Republicans were elected to the House with 70% or more of the vote. …
This year, by my preliminary count, the 70-plus percent districts moved closer to parity — 58 Democrats and 39 Republicans. …
Thus, the Republicans’ 51% of the total House vote produced a disappointing number of House seats.
However, it also signaled a residual Republican strength. Republican House candidates had a hard time dislodging Democrats in marginal districts. But relatively few were weighted down by highly publicized endorsements of Donald Trump’s backward-looking insistence that the 2020 presidential election was stolen; the few identified with that view ran significantly behind the many who didn’t. …
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off-year election results is why the Republicans’ 51% to 47% win in the popular vote
I think one can safely say, since Presidential year votes are somewhat larger, and the increase is somewhat higher among Democrats, that there will not be a Popular vote win for a Republican candidate for President in 2024. If a Republican has to win in 2024, it will be through Electoral College again.
(Hint: it's in the US Constitution.)Replies: @J.Ross, @SaneClownPosse
Republicans underperformed in Senate races too.
Eric Holder has been working overtime with Democrat judges and “independent” committees to gerrymander Republican areas out of existence, while the Democrats howl about Republican gerrymandering.
I think one can safely say, since Presidential year votes are somewhat larger, and the increase is somewhat higher among Democrats, that there will not be a Popular vote win for a Republican candidate for President in 2024. If a Republican has to win in 2024, it will be through Electoral College again.Replies: @Muggles, @Corn
Just like all Presidential winners.
(Hint: it’s in the US Constitution.)
The People be damned every time.
Keep in mind that the Bill of Rights were not in the original Constitution. They were amendments added later, which then created the precedent of amendments to the Constitution, that have proliferated.Replies: @Prester John
I assumed the Democrats would eliminate most of this popular vote edge once they got done counting California sometime around Christmas. The popular vote for the House is fairly meaningless. A significant number of candidates run unopposed, and many more just face token candidates who get suckered into running unwinnable races by the party leadership. A few grifters like Kim Klacik throw out Youtube videos to sucker money out national donors knowing they have no chance of winning.
The combination of Dobbs and Trump pushing candidates peddling 2000 mules BS distracted voters from inflation and crime.
Some Israeli general was asked what the secret of the IDF’s success was and he replied “we fight Arabs!” How do Democrats keep winning? They fight Republicans!
Enlightening and the right kind of analysis.
A few words about election fraud. Not the Apprentice guy’s or pillow guy’s stuff.
Trump’s musings and blusters in 2020 were nothing out of the ordinary. Rival accusations of election fraud have been routine in the U.S. for more than two centuries. For example (Reconstruction Era wiki):
Politics ain’t beanbag. If Trump had been more policy-oriented and better staffed, rather than stubbornly ignorant and lazily ad hoc, he may have been able to credibly act on evidence of significant frauds, even better he might have prevented some of them.
The secret ballot was long a major demand of political liberals and of working-class movements. Why? To avoid intimidation and vote purchasing, which were commonplace. The secret ballot was proclaimed a human right in the Universal Declaration of Human Rights. The U.S. no longer has the secret ballot. Not only is this right denied, but a public-private information-control behemoth stigmatizes and shuts up those who would object to violation of that human right. The behemoth also grossly violates the right to privacy and the right to free speech also proclaimed by the UDHR. No billionaire-funded Campaigns for those Human Rights.
Because the mail ballot is not secret, and can be shown to anyone, any family member, friend, labor union, employer, ethnic organization, religious group, political party, street gang, etc., can determine your vote. They can if they have the power to intimidate you in some way. They can if they have the power to reward or bribe you in some way. That’s also why cameras were/are banned in the polling booth – because a picture proves how you voted.
Even before the mail ballot, election corruption ensued from “walking around money,” unaccountable cash distributed to local precinct hacks (with secret ballot, hacks could get you to the polls but couldn’t see your actual vote). The Atlantic deplored it a mere nine years ago: https://www.theatlantic.com/politics/archive/2013/06/walking-around-money-how-machine-politics-works-in-america-today/276503/ You’ve heard of ballot harvesting. Is it unlikely that such operations offer to help complete the ballot, or offer $20+ for a signed blank ballot? Only if your working assumption is that 100% of the population is scrupulously honest.
The move from personal voting in small precincts with same-day tally to mail ballots in large voting centers with many-days tally multiplies the opportunities for fraud. That it is accompanied by no voter ID, relentless propaganda about the security of elections and success in such indoctrination, vicious intimidation of those who express any doubts, along with borders open to massive immigration, creepily suggest color-revolution-level manipulation.
Almost every country in the world avoids universal mail ballots. Global map:
SSRN: “Why do most countries ban mail-in ballots?: They have seen massive vote fraud problems.” https://papers.ssrn.com/sol3/papers.cfm?abstract_id=3666259
If you web search on voter ID requirements you’ll get lots of American hits about how there is no fraud caused by lack voter ID, and some typically bad-faith debunkings of the fact that almost every country in the world requires voter ID. Also, 75% of Americans prefer voter ID.
https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Voter_identification_laws
I recall a mainstream city newspaper report about a Democratic candidate rally in Southern California a few years ago. Some members of the audience said they couldn’t vote for her because they were indocumentado (illegal). The candidate said you don’t need documents to vote. That news report probably helped her Republican opponent win. If some are so brazen as to say that openly, how much is it said privately?
How was Michigan turnout down in the Detroit boiler rooms but up elsewhere and the Democrats absolutely swept everything?
(Hint: it's in the US Constitution.)Replies: @J.Ross, @SaneClownPosse
Funny variation: if Trump can get enough states and win the popular vote, the Constitution-hating blue metropolises have agreed in advance to have their own electors go to him.
Actually, more popular with actual voters than even 51-47.
Republicans have to be honest that the Democrats have weaponized this laughable mail-in “voting” thing. They no longer have to actually convince many of their voters to go to the polls, they can show up and make sure they vote–“helping” as necessary.
So we have a couple years where the Democrats have annoyed normal people by making a hash out of pretty much everything–the border, spending, inflation, crime, lockdowns, racialism in schools, trannies … and the polling and exit polls show a strong shift to the Republicans. (Not out of any love for them but simply “no thanks Democrats”.) And yet amazing there are still enough “votes”–oh, hey there’s a box of ballots–to be found a week after the election that the Republicans can’t win swing states.
Meanwhile in Florida with actual elections–only allows mail upon user request–De Santis goes from a zero percent win in 2018 (pretty much AnotherMom and me pushed him over the top) against a corrupt black druggie doofus–to winning by 20 points, and even dragging the ho-hum Rubio to blowout win.
Take California for example. In addition to full-blown ballot harvesting California allows on-line registration, after which you can get your ballot by email to print and mail back. There is no interaction with a live person, no proof of residency, and not even one of those "I am not a robot" captchas. The only "safeguard" is that you must have an email, give four random numbers that are supposedly at the end of your SSN, and then check a box attesting that you aren't lying. You can literally register your dog to vote by mail in California.Replies: @Reg Cæsar, @Gandydancer
OT sorta.
Karen Bass is the new mayor of Los Angeles, and a lot is being made of her winning the contest. She’s the first female mayor (and black, double intersection points.) For LA.
I haven’t researched her viewpoints in too much depth, but if you can Mr. Sailer, what are your thoughts on her leadership or style?Does she bring anything new to the table?
Here in the central valley we are still awaiting the final results for David Valadao vs Rudy Salas race. They are still at 67% reporting. Amazing that an immense metropolitan area such as LA can call their mayor race, yet out here in dairy land we still have not called a winner.
Her victory speech consisted of how she would fight for equity reparations and rights for south central. The old black south central ghetto. Now civilized by Hispanics and Asians.
Took 7 days, 9th to the 16th to find enough mail in ballots for her to win. Promises to fight for abortion rights for women of color. Please do.
Her office is run by White men age 30 to 50. She’s a younger version of Maxine Waters. But better educated in Marxism.
I knew she’d win the people who run Los Angeles have nurtured her career since she came home from Cuba training camp.
I wouldn’t put it past her and her handlers to pay some black criminal to set up some White patrolman for another Rodney King riot. Except there’s so few White cops at any level any more.Replies: @Reg Cæsar
Republicans have to be honest that the Democrats have weaponized this laughable mail-in "voting" thing. They no longer have to actually convince many of their voters to go to the polls, they can show up and make sure they vote--"helping" as necessary.
So we have a couple years where the Democrats have annoyed normal people by making a hash out of pretty much everything--the border, spending, inflation, crime, lockdowns, racialism in schools, trannies ... and the polling and exit polls show a strong shift to the Republicans. (Not out of any love for them but simply "no thanks Democrats".) And yet amazing there are still enough "votes"--oh, hey there's a box of ballots--to be found a week after the election that the Republicans can't win swing states.
Meanwhile in Florida with actual elections--only allows mail upon user request--De Santis goes from a zero percent win in 2018 (pretty much AnotherMom and me pushed him over the top) against a corrupt black druggie doofus--to winning by 20 points, and even dragging the ho-hum Rubio to blowout win.Replies: @epebble, @Reg Cæsar, @Anon, @Hypnotoad666
I have never voted in my life without absentee ballots. When we were in California, it was because I usually worked far from home. Now we are in Oregon where it has always been mail ballot. The only knowledge of in person voting for me is by watching TV on election day. And wondering why they all are standing in line, sometimes in bad weather. And how can I remember all the measures, sometimes we have more than 10. I don’t even understand how people vote in person and are sure they are voting for the right candidate (of their preference). Sometimes our ballot has 50 names i.e., offices. Actual candidates may be 100.
"When we get one party rule, we will install mail-in ballots."Replies: @Hibernian
The issue is security and motivation. Old mail-in absentee voting wasn't a huge issue, because you had to request a ballot to be mailed to you, then mail it back in. It was inherently individual.
It changes with scale, where there are these mass mailings of ballots. Then
a) the ballots are floating around everywhere
b) the motivation to "go to the polls" can be "enhanced" by sending people around
c) who fills out the ballot and/or actually selects the candidates "votes" is unknown
d) who actually sends in the ballot is unknown.
This is all quite easy to fix with ID checks at ballot drop-offs--essentially early voting. But suffice it to say the Democrats do not want to see it fixed.Replies: @epebble
We still have a lot of horrible election rules that were created during the Covid Lockdown for political purposes. Covid Hysteria was pushed as a way to get rid of Trump.
blah blah blah.
what will the explanation be when Joe Biden gets 85 million votes next election?
Republicans have to be honest that the Democrats have weaponized this laughable mail-in "voting" thing. They no longer have to actually convince many of their voters to go to the polls, they can show up and make sure they vote--"helping" as necessary.
So we have a couple years where the Democrats have annoyed normal people by making a hash out of pretty much everything--the border, spending, inflation, crime, lockdowns, racialism in schools, trannies ... and the polling and exit polls show a strong shift to the Republicans. (Not out of any love for them but simply "no thanks Democrats".) And yet amazing there are still enough "votes"--oh, hey there's a box of ballots--to be found a week after the election that the Republicans can't win swing states.
Meanwhile in Florida with actual elections--only allows mail upon user request--De Santis goes from a zero percent win in 2018 (pretty much AnotherMom and me pushed him over the top) against a corrupt black druggie doofus--to winning by 20 points, and even dragging the ho-hum Rubio to blowout win.Replies: @epebble, @Reg Cæsar, @Anon, @Hypnotoad666
You left out riots.
Forget “San Francisco Democrats”. They are Portland Democrats now. There, and in Kenosha.
Richard Daley lives!
While letting the arsonists burn. We get his worst feature without his best.
Republicans have to be honest that the Democrats have weaponized this laughable mail-in "voting" thing. They no longer have to actually convince many of their voters to go to the polls, they can show up and make sure they vote--"helping" as necessary.
So we have a couple years where the Democrats have annoyed normal people by making a hash out of pretty much everything--the border, spending, inflation, crime, lockdowns, racialism in schools, trannies ... and the polling and exit polls show a strong shift to the Republicans. (Not out of any love for them but simply "no thanks Democrats".) And yet amazing there are still enough "votes"--oh, hey there's a box of ballots--to be found a week after the election that the Republicans can't win swing states.
Meanwhile in Florida with actual elections--only allows mail upon user request--De Santis goes from a zero percent win in 2018 (pretty much AnotherMom and me pushed him over the top) against a corrupt black druggie doofus--to winning by 20 points, and even dragging the ho-hum Rubio to blowout win.Replies: @epebble, @Reg Cæsar, @Anon, @Hypnotoad666
Desantis encouraged Republicans to vote by mail.
This happened in Canada as well, in 2019. The Tories edged out the Grits, but Trudeaudeau prevailed with more seats. Neither came close to 50%, though, thanks to the ever-present NDP.
Biden needs to avoid a recession and clearly “win” in Ukraine to be reelected.
It’s not going to happen.
Unless the Dems unearth a more viable candidate, Biden only needs a pulse to be reelected.
With all due respect to you guys and aware that I am, as I've said before, a minnow swimming among whales here wrt to intelligence and knowledge, I don't think you all yet realize the depth of loathing the left has for Trump and anyone they perceive as his followers. They are still seething about 2016. It was a horrific affront to their sense of justice and the fitness of things.
I probably spend more time on Facebook than many here. And while I focus on dogs and dog rescue with my fellow conservatives, I get an eyeful of how the left is thinking and feeling, simple because they won't leave conservatives alone. They troll conservative FB posts the way the little black splinter trolls comments here. They're relentless, spiteful and vindictive. Nor has time softened their attitude. I truly believe they stole the 2020 presidential election and mean to win every future election, by any means necessary.Replies: @Corn, @Ron Mexico, @Tex, @Curle
Democrats tend to win when they have access to tons of non-secret mail-in ballots, a Dem political machine controls the counting in the key cities, the race is within the “margin of fraud,” and “counting” gets to continue long after they know how many votes are needed to win.
It’s just a puzzling statistical anomaly why the Dems win 80% of the photo-finish results when these conditions exist.
Steve would never sully his respectability by pondering whether voting fraud might actually be a thing. But the outcome of the Kari Lake race in Arizona sure stinks to high heaven. Lake was up by 4 points in the pre-election polls, Lake was also leading in all the exit polls. As everyone knew she would be, Hobbs was leading based on early mail in votes. But the election day vote was huge and overwhelmingly consisted of Republicans. Statistically, it was a near-sure thing for Lake when they stopped counting on election day.
But then they just kept counting and counting and counting over the following week. And, darn, wouldn’t you know it, those post election-day ballot dumps showed that those election-day Republican voters apparently must have broken for Hobbs in huge numbers. And the post-election counts just trailed off enough to keep Lake from winning. Even more bad luck — Hobbs’s margin of victory will inevitably be just a hair over the .05% that would automatically trigger a recount.
Oh yeah, did I forget to mention that Hobbs was the acting Secretary of State who was in charge of counting and certifying the accuracy of the votes?
Once Hobbs certifies her own win as being totally legit, that is all you are allowed to know. Doubting this Hobbs-certified result is unpatriotic Russian misinformation and must be punished accordingly. Curiosity and skepticism are threats to Democracy.
But you're supposed to believe for no particular reason whatsoever that the elections run in Philadelphia are pure as the driven snow and without the corruption that is evident in every other thing that this government does.
In such a circumstance you don't need a sophisticated conspiracy - everyone knows what to do and when.
Worst economy since Roosevelt and policies as popular as rectal cancer? Clearly Republicans didn't vote because it was an off year. Districts with 100% Democrat voting, not statistically 100% but actual 100% hell sometimes 110% for effort. That might be fraud but it's not enough to matter.
Water leaks everywhere, windows boarded up and Republicans thrown out of the polling station? Just some regular old water damage vote counting. Who hasn't been there?
Steve is like the poor sons of guns who wanted to believe the buffalo were coming back so bad they put on magic shirts to stop Whiteman bullets. The last buffalo was shot. They ain't coming back and there is nothing like an honest election.
BTW nobody cheats but not enough to make a difference. Didn't someone run an analysis of Patriots ball deflation at home and found that strangely it did make a difference? Can't remember who that was but for some reason he wasn't afraid of analyzing cheating in sports.
One open alternative universe question in a “chicken or egg” sort of way is whether gentrification and urbanism of the last decades has helped Republicans or hurt them.
Did clustering young college graduate whites in a few cities (many outside of swing states) help Republicans by making collar suburbs where these young people otherwise and traditionally might have settled competitive for Republicans (due to the absence of likely blue voters), or would those same people adopting an urban lifestyle instead of the house/lawn/dog/2.5 kids/golf club suburban lifestyle in those suburbs hurt Republicans?
Which is the stronger effect politically? – clustering as eternal adolescents, or a generation with less of a stake in the kind of life which historically turned people into Republicans?
Plus the White prosperous suburbanites grow up with parents brainwashed by liberalism for at least 16, often more years of education. STEM education is as hard left as grievance studies.
It’s 2022, not 1952 or 1922.
Republicans have to be honest that the Democrats have weaponized this laughable mail-in "voting" thing. They no longer have to actually convince many of their voters to go to the polls, they can show up and make sure they vote--"helping" as necessary.
So we have a couple years where the Democrats have annoyed normal people by making a hash out of pretty much everything--the border, spending, inflation, crime, lockdowns, racialism in schools, trannies ... and the polling and exit polls show a strong shift to the Republicans. (Not out of any love for them but simply "no thanks Democrats".) And yet amazing there are still enough "votes"--oh, hey there's a box of ballots--to be found a week after the election that the Republicans can't win swing states.
Meanwhile in Florida with actual elections--only allows mail upon user request--De Santis goes from a zero percent win in 2018 (pretty much AnotherMom and me pushed him over the top) against a corrupt black druggie doofus--to winning by 20 points, and even dragging the ho-hum Rubio to blowout win.Replies: @epebble, @Reg Cæsar, @Anon, @Hypnotoad666
Mass-mailing unsolicited ballots and then having partisan machines hoover them up over a period of weeks is a retarded Easter-egg hunt in place of legit voting by actual citizens. But it’s the new normal so Republicans better start doing all this shady stuff even harder than the Dems.
Take California for example. In addition to full-blown ballot harvesting California allows on-line registration, after which you can get your ballot by email to print and mail back. There is no interaction with a live person, no proof of residency, and not even one of those “I am not a robot” captchas. The only “safeguard” is that you must have an email, give four random numbers that are supposedly at the end of your SSN, and then check a box attesting that you aren’t lying. You can literally register your dog to vote by mail in California.
It's just a puzzling statistical anomaly why the Dems win 80% of the photo-finish results when these conditions exist.
Steve would never sully his respectability by pondering whether voting fraud might actually be a thing. But the outcome of the Kari Lake race in Arizona sure stinks to high heaven. Lake was up by 4 points in the pre-election polls, Lake was also leading in all the exit polls. As everyone knew she would be, Hobbs was leading based on early mail in votes. But the election day vote was huge and overwhelmingly consisted of Republicans. Statistically, it was a near-sure thing for Lake when they stopped counting on election day.
But then they just kept counting and counting and counting over the following week. And, darn, wouldn't you know it, those post election-day ballot dumps showed that those election-day Republican voters apparently must have broken for Hobbs in huge numbers. And the post-election counts just trailed off enough to keep Lake from winning. Even more bad luck -- Hobbs's margin of victory will inevitably be just a hair over the .05% that would automatically trigger a recount.
Oh yeah, did I forget to mention that Hobbs was the acting Secretary of State who was in charge of counting and certifying the accuracy of the votes?
Once Hobbs certifies her own win as being totally legit, that is all you are allowed to know. Doubting this Hobbs-certified result is unpatriotic Russian misinformation and must be punished accordingly. Curiosity and skepticism are threats to Democracy.Replies: @Alec Leamas (working from home), @TWS
In Philadelphia municipal corruption is endemic. I mean that public officials and union officials regularly get prosecuted by the U.S. Attorney’s Office for all manner of corrupt practices, before you account for the fact that the whole City is rife with a network of patronage – make work public and union jobs, sinecures, wink wink bid rigging, and so forth. People just rely upon stealing from the public treasury or the union treasury and so forth and have for the better part of a Century. “Walking around money” gets distributed down the chain from ward leaders to their soldiers on election day and nobody asks what it is for.
But you’re supposed to believe for no particular reason whatsoever that the elections run in Philadelphia are pure as the driven snow and without the corruption that is evident in every other thing that this government does.
In such a circumstance you don’t need a sophisticated conspiracy – everyone knows what to do and when.
It's just a puzzling statistical anomaly why the Dems win 80% of the photo-finish results when these conditions exist.
Steve would never sully his respectability by pondering whether voting fraud might actually be a thing. But the outcome of the Kari Lake race in Arizona sure stinks to high heaven. Lake was up by 4 points in the pre-election polls, Lake was also leading in all the exit polls. As everyone knew she would be, Hobbs was leading based on early mail in votes. But the election day vote was huge and overwhelmingly consisted of Republicans. Statistically, it was a near-sure thing for Lake when they stopped counting on election day.
But then they just kept counting and counting and counting over the following week. And, darn, wouldn't you know it, those post election-day ballot dumps showed that those election-day Republican voters apparently must have broken for Hobbs in huge numbers. And the post-election counts just trailed off enough to keep Lake from winning. Even more bad luck -- Hobbs's margin of victory will inevitably be just a hair over the .05% that would automatically trigger a recount.
Oh yeah, did I forget to mention that Hobbs was the acting Secretary of State who was in charge of counting and certifying the accuracy of the votes?
Once Hobbs certifies her own win as being totally legit, that is all you are allowed to know. Doubting this Hobbs-certified result is unpatriotic Russian misinformation and must be punished accordingly. Curiosity and skepticism are threats to Democracy.Replies: @Alec Leamas (working from home), @TWS
Voter fraud can’t matter to Sailer even when it’s clobber you with a 2X4 obvious. His whole analysis shtick goes out the window if you have to factor in systemic fraud.
Worst economy since Roosevelt and policies as popular as rectal cancer? Clearly Republicans didn’t vote because it was an off year. Districts with 100% Democrat voting, not statistically 100% but actual 100% hell sometimes 110% for effort. That might be fraud but it’s not enough to matter.
Water leaks everywhere, windows boarded up and Republicans thrown out of the polling station? Just some regular old water damage vote counting. Who hasn’t been there?
Steve is like the poor sons of guns who wanted to believe the buffalo were coming back so bad they put on magic shirts to stop Whiteman bullets. The last buffalo was shot. They ain’t coming back and there is nothing like an honest election.
BTW nobody cheats but not enough to make a difference. Didn’t someone run an analysis of Patriots ball deflation at home and found that strangely it did make a difference? Can’t remember who that was but for some reason he wasn’t afraid of analyzing cheating in sports.
(Hint: it's in the US Constitution.)Replies: @J.Ross, @SaneClownPosse
Might be referring to an incident long ago, when a state’s electors were supposed to vote for “A”. They got on the train to DC (before planes), and when they arrived in DC they voted for “B”. The vote was not contested.
The People be damned every time.
Keep in mind that the Bill of Rights were not in the original Constitution. They were amendments added later, which then created the precedent of amendments to the Constitution, that have proliferated.
It has.
Republicans going all Reaganaut and describing themselves as “happy warriors” will surely draw in the Palm Springs set. And that’s good because gays, the ones I have known, are very effective at gathering money. And Republicans are just not taking in the loads of bucks since ESG became the standard for corporate dullards. Meanwhile, the Obama-Holder DOJ is using intimidation tactics on top conservative lawyers in DC and the node cities. Elites have completely abandoned the pretense of controlled opposition and are now gleefully baring their totalitarian fangs. They are a bunch of Draculas.
That article is one giant Republican cope. It doesn’t explain Republican Gov’s and Senate candidates getting beat down. It doesn’t explain former purple states like Minnesota and Michigan losing their state houses to all Dem majorities.
This guy writes as if it wasn’t all fixed.
Take California for example. In addition to full-blown ballot harvesting California allows on-line registration, after which you can get your ballot by email to print and mail back. There is no interaction with a live person, no proof of residency, and not even one of those "I am not a robot" captchas. The only "safeguard" is that you must have an email, give four random numbers that are supposedly at the end of your SSN, and then check a box attesting that you aren't lying. You can literally register your dog to vote by mail in California.Replies: @Reg Cæsar, @Gandydancer
Imagine if guns were transferred that way. The same people would, PTE, go ballistic.
Epstein, a Clinton supporter, has shown that big tech is deliberately conducting get out the vote and other manipulations on behalf of the Democrats. It’s obvious to a lot of people that you can’t trust Wikipedia on controversial topics but now it extends to Google search results and other manipulations. This is more of a threat to our democracy than outright suppression because people don’t realize they’re being manipulated.
(#1768 – Dr. Robert Epstein)
BTW, people like Epstein will declare "...And I voted for Hillary!" as a sort of preemptive strike to avoid having their views immediately dismissed. After saying that he'll go on to tell you how corrupt Hillary is.
Republicans victories in 2024 won’t save America because at the root of the problem is Jewish power dominating the cutlure. The goal is to bring down the percentage of white Christians from 50% to 25%. Jewish power is doing this with 1% of progress every year and when they get to their goal there will be complete control of the US. Time and energy should go to supporting brave black men like Ye and Chappelle who are openly challenging Jewish power. If they get eliminated, will there be another challenge for years to come?
The ADL is starting to look weak and whiny.
The ADL also failed to get Fox News to cancel Tucker Carlson. They started trying in 2021 and continue to call companies to ban him to no avail.
https://www.adl.org/resources/blog/deplatform-tucker-carlson-and-great-replacement-theory
Time for people to speak out against Jewish power and the ADL!
Good point. The combination of on-line registration and mail in voting makes fraud too easy. This is a big reason why the Covid hysteria was politicized by Democrats, in order to promote early voting via the Mail..so they would not need to spend millions bribing democrats to go and vote on Election Day…they could harvest the votes in the weeks before the election which is one reason Biden received more Black votes than Obama did.
I think one can safely say, since Presidential year votes are somewhat larger, and the increase is somewhat higher among Democrats, that there will not be a Popular vote win for a Republican candidate for President in 2024. If a Republican has to win in 2024, it will be through Electoral College again.Replies: @Muggles, @Corn
https://mobile.twitter.com/reviewnews1000/status/1592621351751528449
It could easily happen: all depends on who your opponent is.
“Biden needs to avoid a recession and clearly ‘win’ in Ukraine to be reelected.”
Unless the Dems unearth a more viable candidate, Biden only needs a pulse to be reelected.
With all due respect to you guys and aware that I am, as I’ve said before, a minnow swimming among whales here wrt to intelligence and knowledge, I don’t think you all yet realize the depth of loathing the left has for Trump and anyone they perceive as his followers. They are still seething about 2016. It was a horrific affront to their sense of justice and the fitness of things.
I probably spend more time on Facebook than many here. And while I focus on dogs and dog rescue with my fellow conservatives, I get an eyeful of how the left is thinking and feeling, simple because they won’t leave conservatives alone. They troll conservative FB posts the way the little black splinter trolls comments here. They’re relentless, spiteful and vindictive. Nor has time softened their attitude. I truly believe they stole the 2020 presidential election and mean to win every future election, by any means necessary.
Unless the Dems unearth a more viable candidate, Biden only needs a pulse to be reelected.
With all due respect to you guys and aware that I am, as I've said before, a minnow swimming among whales here wrt to intelligence and knowledge, I don't think you all yet realize the depth of loathing the left has for Trump and anyone they perceive as his followers. They are still seething about 2016. It was a horrific affront to their sense of justice and the fitness of things.
I probably spend more time on Facebook than many here. And while I focus on dogs and dog rescue with my fellow conservatives, I get an eyeful of how the left is thinking and feeling, simple because they won't leave conservatives alone. They troll conservative FB posts the way the little black splinter trolls comments here. They're relentless, spiteful and vindictive. Nor has time softened their attitude. I truly believe they stole the 2020 presidential election and mean to win every future election, by any means necessary.Replies: @Corn, @Ron Mexico, @Tex, @Curle
I understand your point but at his age I wouldn’t bet the farm on him having a pulse.
Lol! I know. But I bet Doctor Jill is already practicing her sleight of hand so she can hold a mirror up to his cold dead lips and produce a mist on the glass.
Epstein, a Clinton supporter, has shown that big tech is deliberately conducting get out the vote and other manipulations on behalf of the Democrats. It’s obvious to a lot of people that you can’t trust Wikipedia on controversial topics but now it extends to Google search results and other manipulations. This is more of a threat to our democracy than outright suppression because people don’t realize they’re being manipulated.Replies: @HammerJack, @Harry Baldwin
Google has been that way as long as I can remember. Sadly, DDG isn’t much better.
Which is the story with MSM propaganda, the most effective bits of which are safely embedded in what they call entertainment.
Republicans need to dump Trump if they want to win and get Independent voters.
Face it, independents voted Democrat in the midterms.
Republicans won the House because of redistricting, not because people wanted them.
Republicans need to run guys like Ray Kelly or Bill Bratton, former NYPD commissioners if they want to win.
They aren’t suckers; they get paid some stipend for running from campaign funds. Candidates running for an office are performing a paid job.
‘…One of the puzzles in this year’s surprising and unpredicted (including by me) off-year election results is why the Republicans’ 51% to 47% win in the popular vote for House of Representatives did not produce a majority bigger than the apparent 221-214 result…’
Whatever could be the explanation.
Is this going to be like the mystery of inflation? Whatever brought this about?
No, that “compact” doesn’t kick in until it includes states whose electors add up to 270. They’re a few steps ahead of you. But a number of states short.
Unless the Dems unearth a more viable candidate, Biden only needs a pulse to be reelected.
With all due respect to you guys and aware that I am, as I've said before, a minnow swimming among whales here wrt to intelligence and knowledge, I don't think you all yet realize the depth of loathing the left has for Trump and anyone they perceive as his followers. They are still seething about 2016. It was a horrific affront to their sense of justice and the fitness of things.
I probably spend more time on Facebook than many here. And while I focus on dogs and dog rescue with my fellow conservatives, I get an eyeful of how the left is thinking and feeling, simple because they won't leave conservatives alone. They troll conservative FB posts the way the little black splinter trolls comments here. They're relentless, spiteful and vindictive. Nor has time softened their attitude. I truly believe they stole the 2020 presidential election and mean to win every future election, by any means necessary.Replies: @Corn, @Ron Mexico, @Tex, @Curle
https://youtube.com/clip/Ugkxi5QvfIooSK9Mnrk0Bjsn75GRwJa7YEUa
I can tell you all about Karen Bass. She’s a Marxist. Went off to Cuba in the Venceremos brigade at age 18 to be trained in revolutionary strategy and tactics . Most of them are mid 70s to mid 80s now. She went to Cuba right out of high school. So she hasn’t retired yet. She’s a White hating racist. Her congressional district is one of those criminal black ghetto blobs connected to rich Jewish blobs by narrow strings one or two blocks wide.
Her victory speech consisted of how she would fight for equity reparations and rights for south central. The old black south central ghetto. Now civilized by Hispanics and Asians.
Took 7 days, 9th to the 16th to find enough mail in ballots for her to win. Promises to fight for abortion rights for women of color. Please do.
Her office is run by White men age 30 to 50. She’s a younger version of Maxine Waters. But better educated in Marxism.
I knew she’d win the people who run Los Angeles have nurtured her career since she came home from Cuba training camp.
I wouldn’t put it past her and her handlers to pay some black criminal to set up some White patrolman for another Rodney King riot. Except there’s so few White cops at any level any more.
Too bad we don’t own the movie industry, I recollect a funny movie called “Weekend at Bernie’s” that might be a fit for when Joe dies.
“Weekend at Joe’s” an American president dies, but no one really notices. In fact, they like him better after he has gone “room temperature”.
Doesn’t even need that. It is obvious from photographs that “Joe Biden” is three different people with differently sized and shaped skulls.
I also remember Siskell and Ebert (remember them?) absolutely losing their you-know-what over it as being the final nail in America’s coffin because something so tasteless and repulsive could be passed off as entertainment.
Definitely more innocent times.
I also remember that it was followed by a sequel, Weekend at Bernie’s 2, demonstrating no-one cares what the critics think.
Yeah because- mail in voting, ballot harvesting, fractional votes, dominion, FTX money laundering payouts, and Sha’neequa jamming as many ballots in the machine after hours … had nothing to do with it whatsoever.
The Republic formerly known as America is dead, most people just haven’t realized it yet.
“I understand your point but at his age I wouldn’t bet the farm on him having a pulse.”
Lol! I know. But I bet Doctor Jill is already practicing her sleight of hand so she can hold a mirror up to his cold dead lips and produce a mist on the glass.
Her victory speech consisted of how she would fight for equity reparations and rights for south central. The old black south central ghetto. Now civilized by Hispanics and Asians.
Took 7 days, 9th to the 16th to find enough mail in ballots for her to win. Promises to fight for abortion rights for women of color. Please do.
Her office is run by White men age 30 to 50. She’s a younger version of Maxine Waters. But better educated in Marxism.
I knew she’d win the people who run Los Angeles have nurtured her career since she came home from Cuba training camp.
I wouldn’t put it past her and her handlers to pay some black criminal to set up some White patrolman for another Rodney King riot. Except there’s so few White cops at any level any more.Replies: @Reg Cæsar
Mel Gibson’s inebriated incident gobsmacked me. You mean, there are Jewish cops? Who’da thunk it?
https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Bernhard_Weiß_(police_executive)
“Deputy Chief of the Berlin Criminal Police
In 1918 Weiss was appointed Deputy Chief of the Berlin Criminal Police, the Kripo, and became its head in 1925.In 1920 he was made head of the Political Police and was appointed Vice President of the entire Berlin police force in 1927.Weiss was a member of the liberal Deutsche Demokratische Partei (German Democratic Party). He played a central role during the political tension in the Weimar Republic, and was a fierce defender of the democratic republic against right-wing and left-wing extremists. The constitutional Weimar Republic was for Germany a radical change from the previous authoritarian regime. From the outset the Weimar republic was attacked from both extremes of the political spectrum. Weiss devoted himself to making the Kripo an institution which would defend parliamentary democracy. He was responsible for producing evidence of the subversive activities of the Russian trade delegation in Berlin.”Sounds familiar. The political police was a target for Jewish control. Interesting to note that Weiss repeatedly used law fare on Goebbels.
More of the utter nonsense of the “national popular vote,” which is a fabrication, an outright lie. It simply does not exist because there is no such thing as a national federal election.
To repeat for clarity, the “national popular vote” has absolutely zero meaning. It is cited only by complete idiots.
what will the explanation be when Joe Biden gets 85 million votes next election?Replies: @Anon
“What we Republicans need is not that mean old Trump but a self-effacing, smooth talking, pliant candidate!”
Not sure Cali and Oregon are the best examples here.
“When we get one party rule, we will install mail-in ballots.”
The issue is not having a paper ballot to fill out in the comfort of your home.
The issue is security and motivation. Old mail-in absentee voting wasn’t a huge issue, because you had to request a ballot to be mailed to you, then mail it back in. It was inherently individual.
It changes with scale, where there are these mass mailings of ballots. Then
a) the ballots are floating around everywhere
b) the motivation to “go to the polls” can be “enhanced” by sending people around
c) who fills out the ballot and/or actually selects the candidates “votes” is unknown
d) who actually sends in the ballot is unknown.
This is all quite easy to fix with ID checks at ballot drop-offs–essentially early voting. But suffice it to say the Democrats do not want to see it fixed.
If they are mailed to house addresses, the only people that have access are household members, unless it gets lost or stolen enroute. In spite of all the bad things said about USPS, I think they are upwards of 99.9% good.
c) who fills out the ballot and/or actually selects the candidates “votes” is unknown
That would be the addressee or a member of household, with the request/permission of addressee. The signature check is quite robust, and it is hard to sneak in fraudulent votes.
d) who actually sends in the ballot is unknown
Sealed ballot can be dropped or sent in by anyone and it does not matter unless one suspects some elaborate ballot substitution technology.
Bottom line is, in the last decade or two, the number of ballot fraud prosecutions are rare. Most of the offences seem to be people who moved and received ballots from both places and voted in ignorance not out of criminal intent. Many are elders. In a few instances, mostly in deep south, a few ex-felons registered and voted not being aware of lifetime loss of voting rights. A few cases involved long term permanent residents not realizing voting is only for citizens. None amount to systemic fraud.
https://www.heritage.org/voterfraudReplies: @Hibernian, @Gandydancer
Mr Sailer wasn’t want to be accused of being an election denier.
Barone: “In 2012, Democrats’ popular vote edge owed much to heavy black turnout to reelect the first black president. But many of those votes came in overwhelmingly black districts and did nothing to elect Democrats elsewhere.”
But many of those votes came in overwhelmingly black districts, with more “votes” than voters, and did nothing to elect Democrats elsewhere.
I fixed it for Big Steal-denier Barone, who is anything but a “great election analyst.”
Maybe, to be charitable, he was once great.
There are certain truths that are non-negotiable. Deny them, and you destroy your ability to honestly deal with anything of importance to you. I have stacks of books by education “experts” who either explicitly deny the very existence of “IQ” or “g,” or who act as if neither concept existed, and yet who talk about improving children’s school performance.
And it only gets worse, both in the individual and the social sense. Every week, the msm get their dnc talking points, and declare yet another hoax to be simply a matter of “following the science,” or otherwise immune to questions: the George Floyd case, the Ahmaud Arbery case, covid. Meanwhile, we must not raise issues that TPTB are not raising: e.g., America’s one-sided race war; the biggest bio-chemical warfare attack in world history; crt; sexual psychopaths exposing themselves to girls and women, when they aren’t raping them, etc. And if you contradict the deep state talking points, point by point by point, you’re a “conspiracy theorist.”
Meanwhile, the self-styled “patriotic party,” the gop, surrenders.
Talk of a Trump 2024 reboot quickly taking on water.
https://www.zerohedge.com/political/desantis-leads-trump-big-margins-key-primary-states
His mouth giveth and his mouth taketh away.
Either the GOP caves in to Trump to be the nominee or Trump decides to form a third party, essentially splitting it. He has no desire to play second fiddle.
Epstein, a Clinton supporter, has shown that big tech is deliberately conducting get out the vote and other manipulations on behalf of the Democrats. It’s obvious to a lot of people that you can’t trust Wikipedia on controversial topics but now it extends to Google search results and other manipulations. This is more of a threat to our democracy than outright suppression because people don’t realize they’re being manipulated.Replies: @HammerJack, @Harry Baldwin
Epstein did an interview with Joe Rogan that was one of the most interesting I’ve heard on that show.
(#1768 – Dr. Robert Epstein)
BTW, people like Epstein will declare “…And I voted for Hillary!” as a sort of preemptive strike to avoid having their views immediately dismissed. After saying that he’ll go on to tell you how corrupt Hillary is.
As recently as 2008, Democrats, including Obama, used to warn that mail-in voting was an invitation to fraud. Now that they’ve realized the fraud works in their favor, they’re all for it. It’s similar to the evolution of their position on border control, which they once favored.
https://townhall.com/columnists/lizharrington/2020/05/14/chaos-fraud-democrats-once-warned-against-voting-changes-they-now-call-for-n2568809
This is an Club for Growth poll. John Fund of the Walk Street Journal used to be the face of the organization. Maybe he still is. Used to be you could draw an circle around around Wall Street and capture the plurality if not majority of their members. I wouldn’t be surprised if 40+ percent of their members gave $ to BLM if only through their in-laws.
Start with the assumption the guys heavily invested in China don’t want Trump back. Also tells you these guys have had an “lay off China” conversation with DeSantis. Maybe even an “make border promises you can’t keep cause Congress is good and bought” conversation.
Let us know if they release the poll design.
https://youtu.be/BZLFIRkPmcEEither that, or someone has learned his English from that Portogee Twain wrote about, who taught that a is feminine and an masculine. Or vice versa:https://www.s4ulanguages.com/uploads/1/1/0/8/1108816/6521835_orig.jpgReplies: @Curle, @Chrisnonymous
Unless the Dems unearth a more viable candidate, Biden only needs a pulse to be reelected.
With all due respect to you guys and aware that I am, as I've said before, a minnow swimming among whales here wrt to intelligence and knowledge, I don't think you all yet realize the depth of loathing the left has for Trump and anyone they perceive as his followers. They are still seething about 2016. It was a horrific affront to their sense of justice and the fitness of things.
I probably spend more time on Facebook than many here. And while I focus on dogs and dog rescue with my fellow conservatives, I get an eyeful of how the left is thinking and feeling, simple because they won't leave conservatives alone. They troll conservative FB posts the way the little black splinter trolls comments here. They're relentless, spiteful and vindictive. Nor has time softened their attitude. I truly believe they stole the 2020 presidential election and mean to win every future election, by any means necessary.Replies: @Corn, @Ron Mexico, @Tex, @Curle
You are quite correct. Why would they stop stealing elections? Vote harder is not a viable strategy in the face of systematic fraud.
J. Ross writes:
Holder’s other activities bear more fruit, those involving the ballots vs. votes scheme. Sundance at The Conservative Treehouse has written much about that.
Followup to my #7 above.
Losing candidates are likely to question election integrity. That’s one thing, and it’s gone on for centuries. One’s not obliged to agree with any loser’s accusations. Combining multiple election policies each with high systemic risk of fraud, however, is another thing. It’s a strong indicator of bad faith and intent to defraud.
What rankles is the blob’s gaslighting on universal mail ballot, voter ID, secret and malign nudging of public opinion by social media. No one of any political persuasion should favor such things.
We are in for a nasty anti-inflation recession (I recall 1981 with horror). I’m no expert on that but I’m guessing that the Fed has been holding off on application of pain to protect Dems before the election. Now the economy will scream and with only the House the Rs can (correctly) blame it on the Ds.
Face it, independents voted Democrat in the midterms.
Republicans won the House because of redistricting, not because people wanted them.
Republicans need to run guys like Ray Kelly or Bill Bratton, former NYPD commissioners if they want to win.Replies: @TWS, @Curle, @Gandydancer
Quack. This is your dumbest sock puppet. If you’re just an imitator you need to up your game.
The People be damned every time.
Keep in mind that the Bill of Rights were not in the original Constitution. They were amendments added later, which then created the precedent of amendments to the Constitution, that have proliferated.Replies: @Prester John
Interestingly, Hamilton was against an enumerated “Bill of Rights”, fearful that it would open a can of worms.
It has.
“Donald Trump’s backward-looking insistence that the 2020 presidential election was stolen”
So a patriotic young German soldier during wartime was assigned to patrol a fence surrounding a prison camp. Seventy years later fanatical Jewish witch-hunters discover that the now elderly retiree was guarding a Nazi concentration camp where Jews were being killed. Arrest him, drag him out of the nursing home and jail him, because “Never again!”
“Backward-looking” is good and proper if the right people are doing it.
The issue is security and motivation. Old mail-in absentee voting wasn't a huge issue, because you had to request a ballot to be mailed to you, then mail it back in. It was inherently individual.
It changes with scale, where there are these mass mailings of ballots. Then
a) the ballots are floating around everywhere
b) the motivation to "go to the polls" can be "enhanced" by sending people around
c) who fills out the ballot and/or actually selects the candidates "votes" is unknown
d) who actually sends in the ballot is unknown.
This is all quite easy to fix with ID checks at ballot drop-offs--essentially early voting. But suffice it to say the Democrats do not want to see it fixed.Replies: @epebble
a) the ballots are floating around everywhere
If they are mailed to house addresses, the only people that have access are household members, unless it gets lost or stolen enroute. In spite of all the bad things said about USPS, I think they are upwards of 99.9% good.
c) who fills out the ballot and/or actually selects the candidates “votes” is unknown
That would be the addressee or a member of household, with the request/permission of addressee. The signature check is quite robust, and it is hard to sneak in fraudulent votes.
d) who actually sends in the ballot is unknown
Sealed ballot can be dropped or sent in by anyone and it does not matter unless one suspects some elaborate ballot substitution technology.
Bottom line is, in the last decade or two, the number of ballot fraud prosecutions are rare. Most of the offences seem to be people who moved and received ballots from both places and voted in ignorance not out of criminal intent. Many are elders. In a few instances, mostly in deep south, a few ex-felons registered and voted not being aware of lifetime loss of voting rights. A few cases involved long term permanent residents not realizing voting is only for citizens. None amount to systemic fraud.
https://www.heritage.org/voterfraud
Jeremy Clarkson is posting comments here!
Either that, or someone has learned his English from that Portogee Twain wrote about, who taught that a is feminine and an masculine. Or vice versa:
The rule for choosing whether a or an should be used is usually remembered as depending upon whether the following word begins with a consonant (for using a) or a vowel (for using an). This is incomplete, however: these indefinite articles are used according to the sound that starts the following word, not the letter. So, we say “a dog” and “a balloon” or “an urgent message” and “an ant” but also “a useless pen” and “an hour.” Some words, like historic, can follow either a or an.Replies: @Hibernian
Did clustering young college graduate whites in a few cities (many outside of swing states) help Republicans by making collar suburbs where these young people otherwise and traditionally might have settled competitive for Republicans (due to the absence of likely blue voters), or would those same people adopting an urban lifestyle instead of the house/lawn/dog/2.5 kids/golf club suburban lifestyle in those suburbs hurt Republicans?
Which is the stronger effect politically? - clustering as eternal adolescents, or a generation with less of a stake in the kind of life which historically turned people into Republicans?Replies: @Alden
The suburbs filled with professional well off college educated Whites have been democrat for a couple generations now. Because to be educated in America means at least 16, often more years in school with liberal and democrat party propaganda poured into their brains.
Plus the White prosperous suburbanites grow up with parents brainwashed by liberalism for at least 16, often more years of education. STEM education is as hard left as grievance studies.
It’s 2022, not 1952 or 1922.
https://youtu.be/BZLFIRkPmcEEither that, or someone has learned his English from that Portogee Twain wrote about, who taught that a is feminine and an masculine. Or vice versa:https://www.s4ulanguages.com/uploads/1/1/0/8/1108816/6521835_orig.jpgReplies: @Curle, @Chrisnonymous
What to Know
The rule for choosing whether a or an should be used is usually remembered as depending upon whether the following word begins with a consonant (for using a) or a vowel (for using an). This is incomplete, however: these indefinite articles are used according to the sound that starts the following word, not the letter. So, we say “a dog” and “a balloon” or “an urgent message” and “an ant” but also “a useless pen” and “an hour.” Some words, like historic, can follow either a or an.
https://youtu.be/BZLFIRkPmcEEither that, or someone has learned his English from that Portogee Twain wrote about, who taught that a is feminine and an masculine. Or vice versa:https://www.s4ulanguages.com/uploads/1/1/0/8/1108816/6521835_orig.jpgReplies: @Curle, @Chrisnonymous
I want to be a Lochsmith. Imagine the power!!
I remember that movie.
I also remember Siskell and Ebert (remember them?) absolutely losing their you-know-what over it as being the final nail in America’s coffin because something so tasteless and repulsive could be passed off as entertainment.
Definitely more innocent times.
I also remember that it was followed by a sequel, Weekend at Bernie’s 2, demonstrating no-one cares what the critics think.
"When we get one party rule, we will install mail-in ballots."Replies: @Hibernian
To ensure that one party rule endures forever.
If they are mailed to house addresses, the only people that have access are household members, unless it gets lost or stolen enroute. In spite of all the bad things said about USPS, I think they are upwards of 99.9% good.
c) who fills out the ballot and/or actually selects the candidates “votes” is unknown
That would be the addressee or a member of household, with the request/permission of addressee. The signature check is quite robust, and it is hard to sneak in fraudulent votes.
d) who actually sends in the ballot is unknown
Sealed ballot can be dropped or sent in by anyone and it does not matter unless one suspects some elaborate ballot substitution technology.
Bottom line is, in the last decade or two, the number of ballot fraud prosecutions are rare. Most of the offences seem to be people who moved and received ballots from both places and voted in ignorance not out of criminal intent. Many are elders. In a few instances, mostly in deep south, a few ex-felons registered and voted not being aware of lifetime loss of voting rights. A few cases involved long term permanent residents not realizing voting is only for citizens. None amount to systemic fraud.
https://www.heritage.org/voterfraudReplies: @Hibernian, @Gandydancer
Thank you, Hillary.
The rule for choosing whether a or an should be used is usually remembered as depending upon whether the following word begins with a consonant (for using a) or a vowel (for using an). This is incomplete, however: these indefinite articles are used according to the sound that starts the following word, not the letter. So, we say “a dog” and “a balloon” or “an urgent message” and “an ant” but also “a useless pen” and “an hour.” Some words, like historic, can follow either a or an.Replies: @Hibernian
“An historic” is a Britishism.
Is Britishism wrong Hibernian?
It’s right for the British. If you go by the sound, not the letter, usually people here in the US sound the “h,” which would indicate use of “a” as the indefinite article.
Some examples where the silent H is confusing.
An Hibernian should generally sound better than A Hibernian. Indeed Hibernians would call themselves An Hibernian.
https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Hibernian_F.C.
The French contract La and Le to L’ for similar reasons. L’Hiver pour example. H is a consonant that is also has the confusing characteristics of a vowel. Aitch instead of Haych. “An historical” is a different out loud meaning to “a historical”, which can only be distinguished from “ahistorical” when written.
Words should pronounced in ways that reduce verbal confusion as much as possible.Replies: @Reg Cæsar, @Hibernian
The Democrats made a big deal about who won the popular vote in 2016 (them). Now, not so much. Nary a peep about it.
Actually, all of Hillary Clinton’s popular vote advantage was accounted for by one state – California. If California were not part of the Union, a proposition that a lot of Americans and not a few Californians would agree with, Trump won the popular vote in the other 49 states.
Jewish and a woman. And she decided to get Gibson for drunkenly shooting his mouth off. Instead of just arresting him for drunk driving and leaving it at that. Vindictive stuff.
Here’s the thing, in Berlin the late 1920s the police force had a lot of Jews. The equivalent of an American commissioner especially crossed swords with the National Socialists. Goebbels defeated him. Getting them out of policing would be good thing.
https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Bernhard_Weiß_(police_executive)
“Deputy Chief of the Berlin Criminal Police
In 1918 Weiss was appointed Deputy Chief of the Berlin Criminal Police, the Kripo, and became its head in 1925.
In 1920 he was made head of the Political Police and was appointed Vice President of the entire Berlin police force in 1927.
Weiss was a member of the liberal Deutsche Demokratische Partei (German Democratic Party). He played a central role during the political tension in the Weimar Republic, and was a fierce defender of the democratic republic against right-wing and left-wing extremists. The constitutional Weimar Republic was for Germany a radical change from the previous authoritarian regime. From the outset the Weimar republic was attacked from both extremes of the political spectrum. Weiss devoted himself to making the Kripo an institution which would defend parliamentary democracy. He was responsible for producing evidence of the subversive activities of the Russian trade delegation in Berlin.”
Sounds familiar. The political police was a target for Jewish control. Interesting to note that Weiss repeatedly used law fare on Goebbels.
There are several circumstances where the Harder H sound is very inelegant and A should have a N added.
Some examples where the silent H is confusing.
An Hibernian should generally sound better than A Hibernian. Indeed Hibernians would call themselves An Hibernian.
https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Hibernian_F.C.
The French contract La and Le to L’ for similar reasons. L’Hiver pour example. H is a consonant that is also has the confusing characteristics of a vowel. Aitch instead of Haych. “An historical” is a different out loud meaning to “a historical”, which can only be distinguished from “ahistorical” when written.
Words should pronounced in ways that reduce verbal confusion as much as possible.
There are several ways to avoid confusion at work.Replies: @Curle
Some examples where the silent H is confusing.
An Hibernian should generally sound better than A Hibernian. Indeed Hibernians would call themselves An Hibernian.
https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Hibernian_F.C.
The French contract La and Le to L’ for similar reasons. L’Hiver pour example. H is a consonant that is also has the confusing characteristics of a vowel. Aitch instead of Haych. “An historical” is a different out loud meaning to “a historical”, which can only be distinguished from “ahistorical” when written.
Words should pronounced in ways that reduce verbal confusion as much as possible.Replies: @Reg Cæsar, @Hibernian
The a is pronounced differently in these. Also, the stress changes. And the latter is usually preceded by an article. Often followed by a plural.
There are several ways to avoid confusion at work.
There are several ways to avoid confusion at work.Replies: @Curle
Was Jeremy Clarkson confusing?
Face it, independents voted Democrat in the midterms.
Republicans won the House because of redistricting, not because people wanted them.
Republicans need to run guys like Ray Kelly or Bill Bratton, former NYPD commissioners if they want to win.Replies: @TWS, @Curle, @Gandydancer
“Face it, independents voted Democrat in the midterms.”
“Republicans won the House because of redistricting, not because people wanted them.”
Neither of these comments make much sense but perhaps you’ve got something more substantial than just so statements?
Explain your belief that redistricting was more beneficial to Rs than Ds if your general premise is that Ds are attracting more independents. In other words, give us something that would make your claims coherent.
Unless the Dems unearth a more viable candidate, Biden only needs a pulse to be reelected.
With all due respect to you guys and aware that I am, as I've said before, a minnow swimming among whales here wrt to intelligence and knowledge, I don't think you all yet realize the depth of loathing the left has for Trump and anyone they perceive as his followers. They are still seething about 2016. It was a horrific affront to their sense of justice and the fitness of things.
I probably spend more time on Facebook than many here. And while I focus on dogs and dog rescue with my fellow conservatives, I get an eyeful of how the left is thinking and feeling, simple because they won't leave conservatives alone. They troll conservative FB posts the way the little black splinter trolls comments here. They're relentless, spiteful and vindictive. Nor has time softened their attitude. I truly believe they stole the 2020 presidential election and mean to win every future election, by any means necessary.Replies: @Corn, @Ron Mexico, @Tex, @Curle
Get off of Facebook. It’s one big sorority. Men don’t use that site anymore. The only possible use for it I can imagine is wanting to get in touch with a woman (sometimes). Of my peers maybe three hetero males post there and one is a single dad (posts pics of the kid) and another an professional entertainer. My closest male friends with accounts haven’t posted since the early 2010s.
Some examples where the silent H is confusing.
An Hibernian should generally sound better than A Hibernian. Indeed Hibernians would call themselves An Hibernian.
https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Hibernian_F.C.
The French contract La and Le to L’ for similar reasons. L’Hiver pour example. H is a consonant that is also has the confusing characteristics of a vowel. Aitch instead of Haych. “An historical” is a different out loud meaning to “a historical”, which can only be distinguished from “ahistorical” when written.
Words should pronounced in ways that reduce verbal confusion as much as possible.Replies: @Reg Cæsar, @Hibernian
Only Anglophilic ones or Irish-British actors in The Crown.
“Uh Historical” vs. “Ay Historical.” In the Midwestern United States anyway.
Illinois is Exhibit A concerning Democratic gerrymandering. In Maryland and New York they tried but couldn’t get away with it to that extreme.
“ This worked for decades for the GOP, but, apparently, Democrats have decided to not worry about the language of the law anymore”
Try again, Mr. Sailer.
—In such an outcome, advantages in redistricting “almost certainly” contributed, said Michael Li, senior counsel for the Brennan Center for Justice at New York University Law School, who focuses on elections.
“It’s almost certain the way the maps were drawn, and the skews that exist in the maps, will play an outsize role,” Li said. “If Republicans win a majority there will almost certainly be a majority because of redistricting.—
Try NOTICING—Instead of a shellacking, it will turn out to be one of the strongest midterm performances for a presidential party in modern history. Why did Democrats beat the odds—abortion rights, Donald Trump, candidate quality. Moreover, key independents and moderate voters that Republicans needed to win back did not come back.
“Talk of a Trump 2024 reboot quickly taking on water.“
Either the GOP caves in to Trump to be the nominee or Trump decides to form a third party, essentially splitting it. He has no desire to play second fiddle.
I dunno if Trump lost the 2020 election because of fortification, but that he lost MI because of it looks pretty likely. In 2020 at least one van load of supposed absentee ballots, pre-verified in the count clerk’s office, were trucked into Cobo Hall after polls had closed elsewhere in MI (there is video of this) and counted unobserved who knows how many times until the results changed from wrong to right. That that created an inflated “turnout” which would drop to the extent that the fraud was unnecessary in 2022 is the expected consequence.
Dunno about you, but I get mailed a a voter booklet and sample ballot which I can bring into the booth if I want. Are you smart enough to be voting?
And hopefully he will send out vote harvesters wherever it will help his faction. Unilateral disarmament is not virtuous.
Take California for example. In addition to full-blown ballot harvesting California allows on-line registration, after which you can get your ballot by email to print and mail back. There is no interaction with a live person, no proof of residency, and not even one of those "I am not a robot" captchas. The only "safeguard" is that you must have an email, give four random numbers that are supposedly at the end of your SSN, and then check a box attesting that you aren't lying. You can literally register your dog to vote by mail in California.Replies: @Reg Cæsar, @Gandydancer
The hammer-wielding illegal alien David DePape apparently had no trouble registering to vote in San Francisco (as a Green) well before the current round of election fortification.
Face it, independents voted Democrat in the midterms.
Republicans won the House because of redistricting, not because people wanted them.
Republicans need to run guys like Ray Kelly or Bill Bratton, former NYPD commissioners if they want to win.Replies: @TWS, @Curle, @Gandydancer
A truly dumbass thing to assert. If that had happened the GOP would have been virtually wiped out in both Houses.
If they are mailed to house addresses, the only people that have access are household members, unless it gets lost or stolen enroute. In spite of all the bad things said about USPS, I think they are upwards of 99.9% good.
c) who fills out the ballot and/or actually selects the candidates “votes” is unknown
That would be the addressee or a member of household, with the request/permission of addressee. The signature check is quite robust, and it is hard to sneak in fraudulent votes.
d) who actually sends in the ballot is unknown
Sealed ballot can be dropped or sent in by anyone and it does not matter unless one suspects some elaborate ballot substitution technology.
Bottom line is, in the last decade or two, the number of ballot fraud prosecutions are rare. Most of the offences seem to be people who moved and received ballots from both places and voted in ignorance not out of criminal intent. Many are elders. In a few instances, mostly in deep south, a few ex-felons registered and voted not being aware of lifetime loss of voting rights. A few cases involved long term permanent residents not realizing voting is only for citizens. None amount to systemic fraud.
https://www.heritage.org/voterfraudReplies: @Hibernian, @Gandydancer
Absurd lie. The sig rejection rate in 2020 was historically low by a large margin. I see no reason to think it will more “robust” in 2022. That would be assailed as “voter suppression”.