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Stock futures are up on optimism that the pandemic’s spread is slowing.

New cases in Italy have fallen from 6,557 on March 21 to 4,316 on April 5.

New York appears to be decelerating.

Northern California has been a bright spot, although less so Los Angeles.

Hospital capacity appears resilient as demand for other kinds of care has greatly diminished. We may learn a lot about what kind of health care is really necessary and what kind isn’t.

 
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  1. So Easter Sunday just like Trump said. Dr. Deep State to run interference and demand a double blind study at the next update.

    • Replies: @Polynikes
    Are they still relying on the UW model? Alex Berenson has been great at tearing it apart.

    They say the superforecasters can predict things a year out at the same rate other experts predict things 80 days out. The UW model consistently falls apart after every few days. The latest update on April 4th was already off by 20-30%. Yes, that’s right folks. It couldn’t even look at NYC hospital data for today and come reasonably close for the following day’s prediction, even though admission rates had been stabilizing! This model is bible for the great Dr. Fauci.

    Here’s a good question: what do we do with our “experts” when this is all over? Do the experts who predicted 2.5 million deaths at least get publicly shamed?
    , @Thirdtwin
    And while Dr. Deep State studies, The State Dept. Deep State keeps flying Chinese Plague Lice in by the thousands:

    “Nearly 40,000 people have landed in the United States from China on almost 280 flights since President Donald Trump’s February 2 travel ban on mainland China, a collection of travel data reveals.”

    https://www.breitbart.com/politics/2020/04/05/coronavirus-travel-ban-trump-flights-china/

    It’s almost like the Peking Pox itself is gasping for a ventilator.
    , @Alfa158
    Ok so now you have preempted Corvinus from demanding double blind studies. I guess you and I must be Russian bots. And I didn’t even know I was.
  2. Isn’t daily new cases more a function of the number of tests than the number actually infected? Or are these hospital admissions?

    IIRC China stated that if you tested positive but were asymptomatic, you weren’t counted as a ‘case’.

    Even deaths have their problems, as they are only deaths in hospital, so the 13 or 14 deaths in a single Scottish care home don’t go on UK totals.

    I wonder how many cases were spread by International Women’s Day on March 8, when CV19 was a known threat and some parts of Italy were already in lockdown? Practically none of the demonstrators were social distancing. There was a huge demo in Madrid, subsequently a hotspot. Paris and London, too.

    https://www.theguardian.com/politics/live/2020/mar/08/international-womens-day

    • Replies: @UK

    Even deaths have their problems, as they are only deaths in hospital, so the 13 or 14 deaths in a single Scottish care home don’t go on UK totals.
     
    What gave you that (certainly false) impression?
    , @botazefa

    Even deaths have their problems, as they are only deaths in hospital, so the 13 or 14 deaths in a single Scottish care home don’t go on UK totals.
     
    Why do you think only hospital deaths are counted?
    , @Henry's Cat

    Even deaths have their problems, as they are only deaths in hospital, so the 13 or 14 deaths in a single Scottish care home don’t go on UK totals.
     
    I think that changed last week.
    , @Hippopotamusdrome


    13 or 14 deaths in a single Scottish care home

     

    Let's see.
    Covid-19 linked to 13 deaths at Scottish care home


    A total of 13 people at the Burlington Court care home in the east end of Glasgow have died in the past seven days

     

    No cause of death is mentioned.


    None of the patients were tested for Covid-19

     

    Um, ok.


    A total of 13 people

     

    Very unlucky.
    , @The Alarmist
    Go here and educate yourself.

    https://www.ons.gov.uk/peoplepopulationandcommunity/birthsdeathsandmarriages/deaths/datasets/weeklyprovisionalfiguresondeathsregisteredinenglandandwales

  3. Let’s hope so.

    This thing has everyone thinking about the meaning of first vs second vs third derivatives. Very educational.

    • Replies: @Mr McKenna
    True dat! Here's some negroes studying calculus last night.

    https://www.liveleak.com/view?t=kNwNf_1586017742
    , @Anonymous
    sigma bruh....f(x) is for proles..
    , @Lot
    I think another name change needed. I keep thinking hot dogs and it is hard to take you seriously. Maybe Hebraic National?

    BTW I told commenter “Ano” that his name means “anus” in both spanish and italian but he didn’t seem to care.
    https://cdn.seatguru.com/en_US/img/20180607145757/seatguru/airline_photos/LO.jpg

    http://st.motortrend.com/uploads/sites/5/2014/01/Oscar-Mayer-Wienermobile-front-side-view1.jpg
  4. Hasidic funerals flout social distancing rules

    Hasidic Jews flouted social distancing rules and held at least two packed funerals on the streets of Brooklyn Sunday, including one for a faith-leader who died of coronavirus — as NYPD officers feebly tried to disperse the crowds by blasting warnings from their squad cars.

    Video posted on Facebook shows cops driving up to dozens of mourners, sirens blaring, during a procession near 55th Street and 12th Avenue in Borough Park that was held for 78-year-old Rabbi Meir Rokeach, who reportedly died of COVID-19 on Saturday night.

    Hours later, throngs of Hasidic Jews, some in blue face masks, attended another outdoor funeral procession about a mile away near 44th Street and 16th Avenue. There were no arrests or citations issued in either incident.

    https://nypost.com/2020/04/05/hasidic-funerals-flout-social-distancing-rules-amid-coronavirus/

    “Whatever Whatever”

    • Replies: @AnotherDad
    The Hasidim belong in their own nation.

    But that said, these folks are about ten orders of magnitude less deadly than the secular Jews who prattle on about "restricted" country clubs, Harvard quotas and work to drown us with their "nation of immigrants" and die-versity.

    These Hasidim via their super-spreader behavior may kill an extra 100 or a 1000 gentiles in NY and NJ this year. The die-versity secular Jews work tirelessly to deny white gentiles their right to their nations, work to annihilate white people, ergo Western civilization ... forever.
  5. @YetAnotherAnon
    Isn't daily new cases more a function of the number of tests than the number actually infected? Or are these hospital admissions?

    IIRC China stated that if you tested positive but were asymptomatic, you weren't counted as a 'case'.

    Even deaths have their problems, as they are only deaths in hospital, so the 13 or 14 deaths in a single Scottish care home don't go on UK totals.

    I wonder how many cases were spread by International Women's Day on March 8, when CV19 was a known threat and some parts of Italy were already in lockdown? Practically none of the demonstrators were social distancing. There was a huge demo in Madrid, subsequently a hotspot. Paris and London, too.

    https://www.theguardian.com/politics/live/2020/mar/08/international-womens-day

    Even deaths have their problems, as they are only deaths in hospital, so the 13 or 14 deaths in a single Scottish care home don’t go on UK totals.

    What gave you that (certainly false) impression?

    • Replies: @YetAnotherAnon
    "What gave you that (certainly false) impression?"

    This.

    https://www.gov.uk/guidance/coronavirus-covid-19-information-for-the-public

    The figures on deaths relate in almost all cases to patients who have died in hospital and who have tested positive for COVID-19. Slight differences in reporting in devolved administrations may mean that they include a small number of deaths outside hospital. The figures are compiled from validated data provided by NHS England and Improvement, Health Protection Scotland, Public Health Wales and the Public Health Agency (Northern Ireland).

    These figures do not include deaths outside hospital, such as those in care homes, except as indicated above.
     
    Are you saying the Scots are reporting ALL deaths? Have you a link for that info?.
  6. Detroit had a full side show last night, 30 Dodge chargers and challengers, and hundreds in the crowd. So hundreds of more cases coming

  7. Given the mean time of 7 days to develop symptoms, Italy’s results probably still means that most of the new cases were infected after the lockdown started.

    Given how badly the U.S. is doing at locking down, distancing, and contamination control, I suspect that the U.S. will have a very high level of infection even after lockdown has started.

    What everyone should also interpret in that some idiot politician will take the first sign of good news as a reason to ease off restrictions and get a second acceleration started. Americans, in generaly, are too stupid, too lazy, and too short sighted to be able to deal with a pandemic.

  8. @Hebrew National
    Let's hope so.

    This thing has everyone thinking about the meaning of first vs second vs third derivatives. Very educational.

    True dat! Here’s some negroes studying calculus last night.

    https://www.liveleak.com/view?t=kNwNf_1586017742

  9. I’ll be more optimistic after lagging moving averages start showing a decline. Single day fluctuations are not very significant in the face of vigorously rising moving average trendlines.

  10. “Hospital capacity appears resilient as demand for other kinds of care has greatly diminished.”

    Are you kidding me?????

    What has happened is that hospitals have simply told everyone else to fuck off. Fraud squared by blatant Medical malpractice. If the current hysteria epidemic EVER comes to an end, the courts will be tied up with lawsuits for at least a decade.

  11. “Hospital capacity appears resilient as demand for other kinds of care has greatly diminished.”

    I’m not sure the discrepancy between prediction and reality can be so easily explained (or dismissed). Hospitals were supposed to be overflowing, not merely slammed. There were going to be so many bodies we wouldn’t know what to do with them all. New York City has medical tents in Central Park and a hospital ship. The proprietor of this site predicted a death toll of a million before summer arrives. Maybe the Covid-19 epidemic just didn’t get as bad as a lot of people anticipated. Perhaps unknown infections causing only mild or no symptoms really do outnumber cases. I hope that’s the case.

    I say this being well aware that lives, even healthy lives, have been and will be taken by the Coronavirus, and I don’t mean to minimize anyone’s suffering. To the people who have lost love ones to this disease, I’m sure it feel as if it is the end of the world.

    • Replies: @RadicalCenter
    How many healthy non-smoking non-elderly people have been killed by Covid-19?

    How does that compare to the ostensibly very small number of such people killed by the more typical flu each year?
  12. How much of New York’s deceleration is a function of testing? They’ve had one of the highest hit rates in the world in the past few weeks — they moved from ~33% positive to ~45% positive, so high that one would think it means they aren’t testing enough to capture the real spread. Places that seem to have a good handle on things have been getting hit rates more like 5-10%. New York’s testing volume has been about 18~20 thousand for a while now, and I’m not sure they have additional capacity. Statistics like new hospital admissions seem like they would also be sensitive to capacity limits.

    The only statistic that is trending positive where I don’t have that suspicion is deaths, but I guess it’s possible new coronavirus deaths aren’t being captured consistently because hospitals are already full and testing bandwidth is maxed out, so people are going through the full cycle from infection to death without getting categorized. What do excess deaths look like?

  13. The UW model that Fauci and Birx rely on is wildly off for prediction of hospital beds. It is somewhat better for deaths. They should have never relied on one model.

    Also: there is something to the “Trump pills” (which the media are praying wont work) –

    • Agree: Polynikes
    • Replies: @The Wild Geese Howard
    Even Algeria is reporting positive effects from treatment using the standard Hydroxychloroquine protocol.
    , @Anonymous (n)
    No. In the early stages of a pandemic such as we are in now, demand for hospital beds will initially decline as routine medical care is postponed but the number of infected patients will not be high enough to compensate. This situation will soon enough be reversed as Covid cases continue to climb and those free beds are put into use. Just watch it happen.
    , @anon
    https://www.contagionlive.com/news/results-from-a-controlled-trial-of-hydroxychloroquine-for-covid19

    A moderate size controlled trial with favorable results.

    The LA Doctor says zinc is the secret sauce. Who knows? Maybe it is a placebo, but the other drugs in the combo will work. At least there is enough of it now. So no lupus users will go without.

    Trump and his media rivals are doubling down over this. I would think Trump should have some inside knowledge of incomplete trial results, but who knows. Meanwhile, no one is especially against it except the WP an NYT and the like. Their latest articles imply that side effects are not well known or that there are still shortages this week.

    It is already widely used in the US, so the only thing not known is if its early use reduces serious cases. Use in hospital patients hasn't prevented the venting/deaths.

    With the shutdown costing over $20 B / day, its not an expensive gamble.
  14. Anonymous[185] • Disclaimer says:

    Steve
    That works both ways. How many people are avoiding diagnosis/treatment of disorders that are becoming more serious and less treatable because of Covid-19. I have a friend in the New York metropolitan area whose family has a history of colon cancer. He was supposed to have his first colonscopy,at the age of 40 (high risk pop), a couple of weeks ago but cancelled out of fear of being exposed to the virus in a hospital setting. I am sure there are many others like him for whom delaying medical attention is going to end up being a serious issue.

    • Agree: YetAnotherAnon
  15. The elderly are mostly in hiding now and this is about to become a ghetto disease.

    https://www.dailymail.co.uk/news/article-8190633/New-Orleans-convention-center-prepares-start-accepting-thousands-coronavirus-patients.html

    CDC report reveals 78% of COVID-19 patients in ICUs in the United States had an underlying health condition.

    In New Orleans 39% of residents have high blood pressure, 36% suffering from obesity and 15% have diabetes.

    • Replies: @guest007
    About 50% of Americans have some ailment that would qualify for an underlying health condition. How many Americans take no maintenance medication? What percentage of the population are over 60 Y/O?

    Too many people are underestimating the average health of most Americans and thus, keep thinking that they deal with Covid-19 on the cheap.
    , @bomag

    ...about to become a ghetto disease
     
    Well, sometimes it seems the whole world is eliding into a ghetto.
  16. No matter how this plays out in the next two weeks, the long-term policy solutions to the epidemic are quite clear:

    1) massively increased immigration
    2) DACA amnesty and elimination of ICE
    3) reparations for both black AND brown people; apparently, at least according to Sandy Cortez, brown people were also slaves and so also need reparations.

    It is, it is, a glorious thang, to be a Pirate Kang!

    • LOL: The Alarmist
    • Replies: @Federalist
    It's nice how the same long-term policy solutions work for everything.
    , @JosephB
    You neglected environmental reparations and environmental justice.

    I'm surprised the enviro crowd is trying to gain traction here. I'd think with massive unemployment and a moderate health crisis, selling environmentalism would be tough.
    , @AnotherDad

    No matter how this plays out in the next two weeks, the long-term policy solutions to the epidemic are quite clear:

    1) massively increased immigration
    2) DACA amnesty and elimination of ICE
    3) reparations for both black AND brown people; apparently, at least according to Sandy Cortez, brown people were also slaves and so also need reparations.
     

    They always are!

    Folks here who have obsessed on this--me included, natural to do--need to constantly remember that as compelling as this is, it affects the quality of the nation your kids inherit ... basically not at all. Less than a year's illegal inflow. Less than those Soros brigades trying to storm the border.

    It's the demographics genes and culture of a nation that determine its quality, its peace, prosperity, rule of law.

    The only way this Wuhan Flu will matter is if patriots make it matter politically, to boot the globalist goons and their fellow travelers and take our nation back.

  17. If things go better than expected then no one will learn anything. Everything will be business as usual.

  18. • Troll: YetAnotherAnon
    • Replies: @tc
    The latest update from Cuomo is pretty striking. New hospitalizations fell to 358, a 75% drop in four days.

    https://twitter.com/bespokeinvest/status/1247194815160291328
    , @anonymous
    Well, we've certainly turned a corner on the Trump-Russia collusion hoax, eh Corvy? Unless you have a bad case of TDS, there are no maybes there!
  19. @Louis Renault
    So Easter Sunday just like Trump said. Dr. Deep State to run interference and demand a double blind study at the next update.

    Are they still relying on the UW model? Alex Berenson has been great at tearing it apart.

    They say the superforecasters can predict things a year out at the same rate other experts predict things 80 days out. The UW model consistently falls apart after every few days. The latest update on April 4th was already off by 20-30%. Yes, that’s right folks. It couldn’t even look at NYC hospital data for today and come reasonably close for the following day’s prediction, even though admission rates had been stabilizing! This model is bible for the great Dr. Fauci.

    Here’s a good question: what do we do with our “experts” when this is all over? Do the experts who predicted 2.5 million deaths at least get publicly shamed?

    • Replies: @Louis Renault
    I reccomend finding the latest 'advice' from Obama CDC director Thomas Frieden who was involved in the Ebola response:
    "Frieden was prominently involved in the US and global response to the West African outbreak of Ebola. His visits to West Africa beginning in August 2014 and a September 2014 CDC analysis projecting that the Ebola epidemic could increase exponentially to infect more than 1 million people within four months ....

    Actual resulsts, 28,652 (that's suspected and confirmed) and 11,325 dead. How many more zero's 'til you get to a million? Guess else is giving Trump advice.
    https://www.cdc.gov/vhf/ebola/history/2014-2016-outbreak/index.html
    , @Robert Dolan
    The bankers got their "vaccinations" so we can go back to work now.
  20. There’s the well-known and strange fact that RNA testing for the virus has a false-negative rate of about 30%.

    I looked at a few product inserts for the test EUAs, and sensitivity of the tests run in clinical labs is about 10 “genome equivalents.” In other words, if ten or more virus particles are loaded into the test tube (actually, into the well of a 96-well plate), then the test will come back positive. That is very sensitive.

    The nasopharyngeal swab has to be swirled in a small volume of buffer, so if 10% of the buffer is loaded into the well, then 10/0.2 = 50 viruses would be detected. Still very sensitive. (The new Abbott rapid point-of-care ID NOW test is perhaps tenfold less sensitive, by the way.)

    It looks like there is a lot of heterogeneity among infected people. Some shed a great deal of virus into their lungs (and also feces), while other hardly shed any. I haven’t seen longitudinal reports about how this changes for a person over time. Presumably, sicker people have a higher viral burden and shed more, in general.

    In other news, the emerging consensus is that spread of Covid-19 is worse than for its sister cornonaviruses SARS and MERS because of the longer incubation period. It seems that much transmission is due to a few super-spreaders, those who shed lots of virus while having few or no symptoms.

    RNA tests (including Abbott’s PoC test) should be able to detect nearly 100% of these super-spreaders. Lab tests are being reimbursed at $35 to $50 each.

    With tests finally on the cusp of being widely available, should certain people be swabbed and tested weekly? Those working in hospitals, nursing homes, grocery stores, plus EMTs, cops, mail carriers. The expense of a million tests weekly pales besides the weekly toll of the shutdown.

    • Replies: @Paleo Liberal
    You make a good point.

    What we really need is a cheap, fast and accurate test.

    It would not surprise me if companies started doing some things that they don’t do yet.

    For example, a few offices might demand daily tests of all employees. Hard to do for large companies, though.

    Already, health care workers are required to get a flu vaccination every year, and I assume when and if there is a Coronavirus vaccine they will be required to get one of those as well. I would not be at all surprised if many companies started requiring Coronavirus vaccines for all employees.
    , @Jack D

    With tests finally on the cusp of being widely available, should certain people be swabbed and tested weekly? Those working in hospitals, nursing homes, grocery stores, plus EMTs, cops, mail carriers.
     
    The problem with this is that this doesn't cover all (or maybe even most) potential asymptomatic superspreaders. When they were still able to do contact tracing, people were spreading it at church and synagogue, on planes and buses, etc. , not just in work settings. In fact, mainly NOT in work settings (other than nursing homes and cruise ships - now in those places they should test the employees A LOT). In fact, now that people in work settings are all going to be masked up and gloved up, that's probably the LEAST likely source of continuing spread.

    Maybe what needs to be done is to test EVERYONE all at once and isolate all the positives. Then do it again a couple of weeks later. As many times as necessary until the virus dies in the wild. Hopefully they will have a test for antibodies soon (and some idea whether you get immunity). If you test positive for antibodies you are immune and can be exempt from the later rounds of testing.
    , @AnotherDad

    RNA tests (including Abbott’s PoC test) ...
     
    I can usually tell PoC without any fancy lab test. Viruses is where i need help.
    , @Steve Sailer
    Right. In a testing regime of the future with fairly abundant tests, I'd be a low priority for frequent testing due to my normal (and now increased) reclusiveness, while a supermarket clerk or a barber would be high priority.
  21. We may learn a lot about what kind of health care is really necessary and what kind isn’t.

    Maybe, we may also see a significant number of deaths in the next 12-24 months from people who missed regular checks up and routine screenings for cancer and heart disease too.

    • Replies: @Steve Sailer
    I canceled two medical appointments for April and converted a third to telemedicine. I should be fine, but I would like to get back to my normal schedule within a year or two.
  22. Stock futures are up on optimism that the pandemic’s spread is slowing.

    Yes, the stock market is powered by avarice. Only an idiot would think that the economic problems are near an end. Covid-19 was merely the pin that pricked the extreme stock market bubble. One of the biggest problems is stock evaluations, which are extreme due to stock buybacks with borrowed fiat money.

    • Replies: @William Badwhite

    One of the biggest problems is stock evaluations, which are extreme due to stock buybacks with borrowed fiat money.
     
    '

    You mean valuations, not evaluations. Equity multiples are high because interest rates are so low.
  23. Once again, Blacks and minorities are affected the most.

  24. @Louis Renault
    So Easter Sunday just like Trump said. Dr. Deep State to run interference and demand a double blind study at the next update.

    And while Dr. Deep State studies, The State Dept. Deep State keeps flying Chinese Plague Lice in by the thousands:

    “Nearly 40,000 people have landed in the United States from China on almost 280 flights since President Donald Trump’s February 2 travel ban on mainland China, a collection of travel data reveals.”

    https://www.breitbart.com/politics/2020/04/05/coronavirus-travel-ban-trump-flights-china/

    It’s almost like the Peking Pox itself is gasping for a ventilator.

    • Replies: @Louis Renault
    On a bright note Trump has cured cancer, or did you hear of someone dying of it since January?
  25. “We may learn a lot about what kind of health care is really necessary and what kind isn’t.”

    A lot of the “unnecessary” care means: I don’t need to go into a viral hot zone at this particular time.

    But then there’s this, as well:
    https://www.painscience.com/biblio/fascinating-landmark-study-of-placebo-surgery-for-knee-osteoarthritis.html

  26. We probably are starting to turn the corner on this round. I wouldn’t be surprised if we get reports of the disease resurfacing in November, though.

    • Agree: bruce county
    • Replies: @Louis Renault
    October no surprise, except for cancelling the election or enacting ballot harvesting laws in swing states.
  27. @MG
    The UW model that Fauci and Birx rely on is wildly off for prediction of hospital beds. It is somewhat better for deaths. They should have never relied on one model.

    Also: there is something to the “Trump pills” (which the media are praying wont work) -

    https://twitter.com/geoffpilkington/status/1247065352191660032?s=21

    Even Algeria is reporting positive effects from treatment using the standard Hydroxychloroquine protocol.

  28. Looking at the Logarithmic charts in http://gisanddata.maps.arcgis.com/apps/opsdashboard/index.html#/bda7594740fd40299423467b48e9ecf6

    it does seem that the rate of increase across the world is starting to slow, which is what you would hope for given the current restrictions that billions of people are living under. Of course, this is just the first battle in a long war…

    Meanwhile, in the DM:
    https://www.dailymail.co.uk/news/article-8191443/NHS-data-suggests-people-black-minority-backgrounds-vulnerable-coronavirus.html

    Coronavirus patients from black and ethnic minority backgrounds may be at higher risk of suffering deadly complications of the disease, an NHS report suggests.

    Despite making up just 13 per cent of the UK population, a third of patients who fall critically ill with COVID-19 are from black, Asian or minority ethnic (BME) groups.

    Make of that what you will.

    • Replies: @Smithsonian_2
    ..and the same thing is seen in the USA.

    April 6 (Reuters) - Early data from U.S. states shows African Americans are more likely to die from COVID-19, highlighting longstanding disparities in health and inequalities in access to medical care, experts said.

    In Illinois, black people make up about 30% of the state's cases and about 40% of its coronavirus-related deaths, according to statistics provided by the state's public health agency. However, African Americans make up just 14.6% of the state's population.

    In Michigan, black people account for 40% of the state's reported deaths, according to data released by the state, but its population is only 14% African American.
     
    https://news.trust.org/item/20200406160842-9x3r4
  29. @MG
    The UW model that Fauci and Birx rely on is wildly off for prediction of hospital beds. It is somewhat better for deaths. They should have never relied on one model.

    Also: there is something to the “Trump pills” (which the media are praying wont work) -

    https://twitter.com/geoffpilkington/status/1247065352191660032?s=21

    No. In the early stages of a pandemic such as we are in now, demand for hospital beds will initially decline as routine medical care is postponed but the number of infected patients will not be high enough to compensate. This situation will soon enough be reversed as Covid cases continue to climb and those free beds are put into use. Just watch it happen.

  30. @ic1000
    There's the well-known and strange fact that RNA testing for the virus has a false-negative rate of about 30%.

    I looked at a few product inserts for the test EUAs, and sensitivity of the tests run in clinical labs is about 10 "genome equivalents." In other words, if ten or more virus particles are loaded into the test tube (actually, into the well of a 96-well plate), then the test will come back positive. That is very sensitive.

    The nasopharyngeal swab has to be swirled in a small volume of buffer, so if 10% of the buffer is loaded into the well, then 10/0.2 = 50 viruses would be detected. Still very sensitive. (The new Abbott rapid point-of-care ID NOW test is perhaps tenfold less sensitive, by the way.)

    It looks like there is a lot of heterogeneity among infected people. Some shed a great deal of virus into their lungs (and also feces), while other hardly shed any. I haven't seen longitudinal reports about how this changes for a person over time. Presumably, sicker people have a higher viral burden and shed more, in general.

    In other news, the emerging consensus is that spread of Covid-19 is worse than for its sister cornonaviruses SARS and MERS because of the longer incubation period. It seems that much transmission is due to a few super-spreaders, those who shed lots of virus while having few or no symptoms.

    RNA tests (including Abbott's PoC test) should be able to detect nearly 100% of these super-spreaders. Lab tests are being reimbursed at $35 to $50 each.

    With tests finally on the cusp of being widely available, should certain people be swabbed and tested weekly? Those working in hospitals, nursing homes, grocery stores, plus EMTs, cops, mail carriers. The expense of a million tests weekly pales besides the weekly toll of the shutdown.

    You make a good point.

    What we really need is a cheap, fast and accurate test.

    It would not surprise me if companies started doing some things that they don’t do yet.

    For example, a few offices might demand daily tests of all employees. Hard to do for large companies, though.

    Already, health care workers are required to get a flu vaccination every year, and I assume when and if there is a Coronavirus vaccine they will be required to get one of those as well. I would not be at all surprised if many companies started requiring Coronavirus vaccines for all employees.

  31. With tests finally on the cusp of being widely available, should certain people be swabbed and tested weekly? Those working in hospitals, nursing homes, grocery stores, plus EMTs, cops, mail carriers.

    Um…Hell yes?

  32. Hey Steve,

    How about a review of Self Made: Inspired by the Life of Madam C. J. Walker on Netflix.

    PanicFest is getting old.

  33. They dropped their overall predictions of death by almost 12,000 over the last couple of days. Almost every ICU is free and clear. You can see the numbers slowing in terms of growth.

    The model shows a faster fall than they expected a few weeks ago.

    http://www.healthdata.org/covid/updates

    https://covid19.healthdata.org/projections

  34. Flu season is coming to an end? When did we care so much about that?

  35. @ic1000
    There's the well-known and strange fact that RNA testing for the virus has a false-negative rate of about 30%.

    I looked at a few product inserts for the test EUAs, and sensitivity of the tests run in clinical labs is about 10 "genome equivalents." In other words, if ten or more virus particles are loaded into the test tube (actually, into the well of a 96-well plate), then the test will come back positive. That is very sensitive.

    The nasopharyngeal swab has to be swirled in a small volume of buffer, so if 10% of the buffer is loaded into the well, then 10/0.2 = 50 viruses would be detected. Still very sensitive. (The new Abbott rapid point-of-care ID NOW test is perhaps tenfold less sensitive, by the way.)

    It looks like there is a lot of heterogeneity among infected people. Some shed a great deal of virus into their lungs (and also feces), while other hardly shed any. I haven't seen longitudinal reports about how this changes for a person over time. Presumably, sicker people have a higher viral burden and shed more, in general.

    In other news, the emerging consensus is that spread of Covid-19 is worse than for its sister cornonaviruses SARS and MERS because of the longer incubation period. It seems that much transmission is due to a few super-spreaders, those who shed lots of virus while having few or no symptoms.

    RNA tests (including Abbott's PoC test) should be able to detect nearly 100% of these super-spreaders. Lab tests are being reimbursed at $35 to $50 each.

    With tests finally on the cusp of being widely available, should certain people be swabbed and tested weekly? Those working in hospitals, nursing homes, grocery stores, plus EMTs, cops, mail carriers. The expense of a million tests weekly pales besides the weekly toll of the shutdown.

    With tests finally on the cusp of being widely available, should certain people be swabbed and tested weekly? Those working in hospitals, nursing homes, grocery stores, plus EMTs, cops, mail carriers.

    The problem with this is that this doesn’t cover all (or maybe even most) potential asymptomatic superspreaders. When they were still able to do contact tracing, people were spreading it at church and synagogue, on planes and buses, etc. , not just in work settings. In fact, mainly NOT in work settings (other than nursing homes and cruise ships – now in those places they should test the employees A LOT). In fact, now that people in work settings are all going to be masked up and gloved up, that’s probably the LEAST likely source of continuing spread.

    Maybe what needs to be done is to test EVERYONE all at once and isolate all the positives. Then do it again a couple of weeks later. As many times as necessary until the virus dies in the wild. Hopefully they will have a test for antibodies soon (and some idea whether you get immunity). If you test positive for antibodies you are immune and can be exempt from the later rounds of testing.

    • Replies: @Paleo Liberal
    Good idea.

    There is a monkey wrench. Our porous borders.

    Mexican skiers and Gringo spring breakers already brought Coronavirus to Mexico. AMLO seems to think mystical mumbo jumbo will protect Mexicans.

    There are already plenty of Mexicans fleeing rhe country any way they can. A few months ago less than 30% of the people caught at the border were Mexicans. Now it’s over 60%. That could be fewer Central Americans crossing or more Mexicans. Probably a little of both.
    , @ic1000
    > Maybe what needs to be done is to test EVERYONE all at once and isolate all the positives. Then do it again a couple of weeks later.

    If the capacity existed to do this volume of tests, this might be a good idea. But it doesn't, and won't for some time, if ever. Plus, there's the 30% false-negative rate to complicate responses (such as contact tracing). The advantage of looking to squash R by identifying superspreaders is that the false-negative rate should be near zero, even for a PoC test that's 10x less sensitive.

    > As many times as necessary until the virus dies in the wild.

    The Covid-19 horse left the barn a while ago. Even with a theoretical 100.00% success in the US (LOL), there's still every other country. Thanks, Davos globalizationists and Open Borderists.

    > Hopefully they will have a test for antibodies soon

    Clinical labs can do this at the bench in an ELISA or similar format, it's straightforward but labor intensive. Last week, the FDA granted Cellex an EUA for their pregnancy-test-style PoC test (lateral-flow dipstick, needs a drop of blood), EUA at this FDA page. Discussion here.
  36. @YetAnotherAnon
    Isn't daily new cases more a function of the number of tests than the number actually infected? Or are these hospital admissions?

    IIRC China stated that if you tested positive but were asymptomatic, you weren't counted as a 'case'.

    Even deaths have their problems, as they are only deaths in hospital, so the 13 or 14 deaths in a single Scottish care home don't go on UK totals.

    I wonder how many cases were spread by International Women's Day on March 8, when CV19 was a known threat and some parts of Italy were already in lockdown? Practically none of the demonstrators were social distancing. There was a huge demo in Madrid, subsequently a hotspot. Paris and London, too.

    https://www.theguardian.com/politics/live/2020/mar/08/international-womens-day

    Even deaths have their problems, as they are only deaths in hospital, so the 13 or 14 deaths in a single Scottish care home don’t go on UK totals.

    Why do you think only hospital deaths are counted?

  37. Hospital capacity appears resilient as demand for other kinds of care has greatly diminished. We may learn a lot about what kind of health care is really necessary and what kind isn’t.

    Right. But a lot of “not totally necessary care” is fully paid at high rates. If the only care provided was the most necessary, the total cost would be lower, but the amount paid would be very very much lower. People getting checkups and elective surgeries, etc., pump tons of money into the system.

    • Replies: @Steve Sailer
    Elective surgeries that fix annoying problems like a bum knee are a very nice thing.
  38. Of course it’s slowing. And this is despite half the country not giving a fuck about social distancing or masks. Expect a lot of “I told you so’s” as we turn the corner AND it increasingly comes to light that many recorded “COVID deaths” actually weren’t. The main question in my mind is why so many otherwise skeptical individuals became so emotionally committed to the worst of the doom-and-gloom possible scenarios. I have my theories but let’s see how this plays out.

    • Replies: @Je Suis Omar Mateen
    "The main question in my mind is why so many otherwise skeptical individuals became so emotionally committed to the worst of the doom-and-gloom possible scenarios."

    Personal fears and phobias. Steve is terrified because chemotherapy wrecked his immune system. Though he is early GenX, Lion of the Blog has always been obsessed with having medical insurance, so I assume his health sucks as well.

    If you examine the data and ignore the bogus models, it is clear that kung flu is an unusually benign virus in that it claims mostly oldsters in poor health. Once more, with feeling:

    If your lungs are diseased,
    Self-quarantine please;
    If your health is ok,
    Go on about your day!

    , @Anonymous Jew
    Agree, but even under worst-case scenarios is the lockdown appropriate? 60,000 dead is a bad flu season. Over 36,000 per year die from traffic accidents but that’s acceptable because of the trade off provided by the utility of autos. 580,000 die prematurely due to tobacco, but that’s acceptable because of the trade off provided by individual freedom. We could also save lives by banning SUVs or lowering the speed limit. Should we?

    For the sake of argument, let’s assume marijuana is worse than tobacco per puff. How is it logically consistent that the same people that support the legalization of marijuana (more dangerous than smoking) support a total lockdown of the economy and loss of liberty. A policy that - as it looks now - will prevent less premature deaths than banning smoking?!

    This isn’t about best versus worst-case scenarios. This is about the worst public policy in recent memory after mass third-world immigration. Public policy should involve the weighing of costs and benefits. Was that done here? No, this is just flat out hysteria.

    Again, let everyone take responsibility for themselves. Pass legislation to protect the jobs of older and vulnerable people, etc. Otherwise let’r rip. Tell people to take necessary precautions and if they don’t medical care will be rationed by age. You smoke, you assume the risk. You’re an old person with diabetes that wants to attend a baseball game, you assume the risk.

    I’m surprised more on here haven’t expressed this sentiment. Generally people on the right do better with trolly dilemmas while those on the far left get hysterical “won’t someone please think of the children!”

    Even if this kills over one million, a shutdown (which will only save a fraction of those lives at best) is not worth the costs related to economics/utility and individual freedom. I’m not ashamed to be an American; I’m ashamed to be a human. I’m rooting for coronavirus. Our stupid species deserves it.

    (Also, how in the world is it that cucked Sweden the only rational Western country right now?)

    , @Sam Haysom
    Also Steve has two kids at home and I don’t get the feeling he’s parent particularly able to demand his kids stay home.

    Moreover, I can’t escape the feeling that steve just like many New Yorkers were terrified of a situation where middle America kept fully operational while they were down. If coastal elite hadn’t bluffed the rest of country into shutting down, middle America would have been much more willing to consider quarantining NYC in order to keep commerce working.

    Not mention how long would Hollywood wait to start shooting in different locations if LA were shut down and for instance North Carolina were open for business? There is a reason steve is extremely defensive of Hollywood for a putative right winger. March 20th or so the LV mayor was saying we need to get back to work and she was shut up right quick. That made my noticing sense tingle. Red states had a real oppurtunity to gain ground on coastal blue states economically and coast right wing elites launched into panic mode.
  39. @Jack D

    With tests finally on the cusp of being widely available, should certain people be swabbed and tested weekly? Those working in hospitals, nursing homes, grocery stores, plus EMTs, cops, mail carriers.
     
    The problem with this is that this doesn't cover all (or maybe even most) potential asymptomatic superspreaders. When they were still able to do contact tracing, people were spreading it at church and synagogue, on planes and buses, etc. , not just in work settings. In fact, mainly NOT in work settings (other than nursing homes and cruise ships - now in those places they should test the employees A LOT). In fact, now that people in work settings are all going to be masked up and gloved up, that's probably the LEAST likely source of continuing spread.

    Maybe what needs to be done is to test EVERYONE all at once and isolate all the positives. Then do it again a couple of weeks later. As many times as necessary until the virus dies in the wild. Hopefully they will have a test for antibodies soon (and some idea whether you get immunity). If you test positive for antibodies you are immune and can be exempt from the later rounds of testing.

    Good idea.

    There is a monkey wrench. Our porous borders.

    Mexican skiers and Gringo spring breakers already brought Coronavirus to Mexico. AMLO seems to think mystical mumbo jumbo will protect Mexicans.

    There are already plenty of Mexicans fleeing rhe country any way they can. A few months ago less than 30% of the people caught at the border were Mexicans. Now it’s over 60%. That could be fewer Central Americans crossing or more Mexicans. Probably a little of both.

    • Replies: @anon
    A few months ago less than 30% of the people caught at the border were Mexicans. Now it’s over 60%.

    Citation required.

    In reality, very few people are attempting to cross the southern border now. Mexico is nominally on some sort of quarantine and the Central Americans may be afraid of catching COVID-19 in the US. What they don't know is Corona-chan is already visiting them.

    Anyway. Apprehensions are way, way down.

    https://www.bizpacreview.com/2020/04/05/illegal-border-crossing-reportedly-next-to-nothing-less-than-150-apprehensions-for-almost-a-week-905163

    By the way, the price of meth, fentanyl, heroin, etc. are going way up because chemical precursors from China are in short supply. That also reduces the number of mules needed in the deserts.
  40. @YetAnotherAnon
    Isn't daily new cases more a function of the number of tests than the number actually infected? Or are these hospital admissions?

    IIRC China stated that if you tested positive but were asymptomatic, you weren't counted as a 'case'.

    Even deaths have their problems, as they are only deaths in hospital, so the 13 or 14 deaths in a single Scottish care home don't go on UK totals.

    I wonder how many cases were spread by International Women's Day on March 8, when CV19 was a known threat and some parts of Italy were already in lockdown? Practically none of the demonstrators were social distancing. There was a huge demo in Madrid, subsequently a hotspot. Paris and London, too.

    https://www.theguardian.com/politics/live/2020/mar/08/international-womens-day

    Even deaths have their problems, as they are only deaths in hospital, so the 13 or 14 deaths in a single Scottish care home don’t go on UK totals.

    I think that changed last week.

  41. @Jack D
    The elderly are mostly in hiding now and this is about to become a ghetto disease.

    https://www.dailymail.co.uk/news/article-8190633/New-Orleans-convention-center-prepares-start-accepting-thousands-coronavirus-patients.html

    CDC report reveals 78% of COVID-19 patients in ICUs in the United States had an underlying health condition.

    In New Orleans 39% of residents have high blood pressure, 36% suffering from obesity and 15% have diabetes.

    About 50% of Americans have some ailment that would qualify for an underlying health condition. How many Americans take no maintenance medication? What percentage of the population are over 60 Y/O?

    Too many people are underestimating the average health of most Americans and thus, keep thinking that they deal with Covid-19 on the cheap.

  42. This is an interesting read:

    https://www.telegraph.co.uk/global-health/science-and-disease/denial-brutal-lockdown-africas-response-rich-mans-disease-has/

    The coronavirus pandemic may have reached Africa later, perhaps because the continent accounts for just two percent of global air travel. But the number of cases is now soaring, standing at more than 9,000 by Sunday evening, and data mapping suggests that the continent is now on the same infection trajectory as Italy or Spain.

  43. If lockdowns are effective at all (which remains to be seen) it should be about now that there would be signs of it.

  44. @Louis Renault
    So Easter Sunday just like Trump said. Dr. Deep State to run interference and demand a double blind study at the next update.

    Ok so now you have preempted Corvinus from demanding double blind studies. I guess you and I must be Russian bots. And I didn’t even know I was.

    • Replies: @Louis Renault
    Study away like a co-ed at Brown getting a degree in international SJW relations while social distancing from the deplorables and demanding someone pay those loans you took out to culturally enrich yourself with a study abroad. That ought to be good for a couple of years.
  45. @Jack D

    With tests finally on the cusp of being widely available, should certain people be swabbed and tested weekly? Those working in hospitals, nursing homes, grocery stores, plus EMTs, cops, mail carriers.
     
    The problem with this is that this doesn't cover all (or maybe even most) potential asymptomatic superspreaders. When they were still able to do contact tracing, people were spreading it at church and synagogue, on planes and buses, etc. , not just in work settings. In fact, mainly NOT in work settings (other than nursing homes and cruise ships - now in those places they should test the employees A LOT). In fact, now that people in work settings are all going to be masked up and gloved up, that's probably the LEAST likely source of continuing spread.

    Maybe what needs to be done is to test EVERYONE all at once and isolate all the positives. Then do it again a couple of weeks later. As many times as necessary until the virus dies in the wild. Hopefully they will have a test for antibodies soon (and some idea whether you get immunity). If you test positive for antibodies you are immune and can be exempt from the later rounds of testing.

    > Maybe what needs to be done is to test EVERYONE all at once and isolate all the positives. Then do it again a couple of weeks later.

    If the capacity existed to do this volume of tests, this might be a good idea. But it doesn’t, and won’t for some time, if ever. Plus, there’s the 30% false-negative rate to complicate responses (such as contact tracing). The advantage of looking to squash R by identifying superspreaders is that the false-negative rate should be near zero, even for a PoC test that’s 10x less sensitive.

    > As many times as necessary until the virus dies in the wild.

    The Covid-19 horse left the barn a while ago. Even with a theoretical 100.00% success in the US (LOL), there’s still every other country. Thanks, Davos globalizationists and Open Borderists.

    > Hopefully they will have a test for antibodies soon

    Clinical labs can do this at the bench in an ELISA or similar format, it’s straightforward but labor intensive. Last week, the FDA granted Cellex an EUA for their pregnancy-test-style PoC test (lateral-flow dipstick, needs a drop of blood), EUA at this FDA page. Discussion here.

  46. We may learn a lot about what kind of healthcare is really necessary and what kind isn’t.

    It can be rather subjective of course, but there is a ton of healthcare that isn’t really necessary. You can say the same about many other things.

    There’s a lot of travel that isn’t necessary. There is a lot of trade volume that isn’t necessary. There is a lot of zombie business activity that isn’t necessary. There is a lot of resource use that isn’t necessary.

    In many ways, the era of globalism has been amplifying the number of unnecessary things so that more revenue would flow to the oligarchs. It’s been a gigantic, century-long Ponzi that is falling apart due to the impossibility of any further organic growth in the face of global demographic inversion.

  47. This morning’s story about Bronx Zoo tigers catching the WuFlu is certainly aimed at maintaining peak public anxiety

    • Replies: @Stan d Mute

    This morning’s story about Bronx Zoo tigers catching the WuFlu is certainly aimed at maintaining peak public anxiety
     
    Given that we now know that cats can be infected, it’s time to call for new State & Federal Emergency Orders for the destruction of all cats.

    I’d give anything to see the Boomer cat-ladies’ heads explode!
    , @JerseyJeffersonian
    Well, yeah, a psyop considering how many are all caught up in that Netflix thing, Tiger King, and therefore primed to be triggered by anything "tiger". Duh.
  48. I have to compliment the would be humorist who calls himself Tiny Duck for not posting any of his satirical comments on the Covid articles. Apparently he realizes that this is a, literally, deadly serious issue with people dying and economies wrecked, and so out of respect he is refraining from the lame parodies of brain dead Leftists and POC he usually tries to entertain us with.

    • Replies: @anonymous

    I have to compliment the would be humorist who calls himself Tiny Duck for not posting any of his satirical comments on the Covid articles. Apparently he realizes that this is a, literally, deadly serious issue with people dying and economies wrecked, and so out of respect he is refraining from the lame parodies of brain dead Leftists and POC he usually tries to entertain us with.
     
    It's funny how quiet the leftists, anarchists, Black Lives Matter and the rest of the Racial Industrial Complex get when the stakes are their ass–and predictable.

    Anarchists, in particular should be out in the streets going crazy right now. Tactically speaking, it's a no-brainer. Where are they? Not an angry masked fat chick in sight. Those Starbuck's store windows aren't going to break themselves...
    , @Reg Cæsar

    I have to compliment the would be humorist who calls himself Tiny Duck for not posting any of his satirical comments on the Covid articles.
     
    The Duck may be down with the bird flu. Unfortunately, the humorless Crow has been hyperactive in his absence. ISteve is infected with Corvid-19, but I wouldn't call it "positive".

    https://cms.qz.com/wp-content/uploads/2020/04/RTS380NW-e1586096769759.jpg?quality=75&strip=all&w=1380&h=776

    , @Cortes
    He doesn’t want to be labelled a quack.
  49. The problem is not the models, but the data used to create the models. Garbage in, garbage out.

    First, the models were created using Chinese data. About as reliable as the batteries I ordered on ebay.

    Then it was Italian data. Again, not reliable.

    Once we switched to US data, the data is wrong as anyone who dies, from Stage 4 lung cancer, heart attach, diabetes, etc. but also had Covid, then Covid was the reason. This makes no sense.

    80% of modeling is getting the data correct for input to the models.

    We screwed our economy using BS data. Sad.

  50. But Ron “Burger King” Unz promised us 50,000 deaths in NY. (We’re only 45,800 short of that) He said it was “baked in the cake,” or maybe he meant a Croissanwich. Was he telling a Whopper?

    • LOL: Dave Pinsen
  51. So why does the virus, in virtually every country, seem to hit a wall and plateau off (at least at this point)? We have strong measures (S. Korea), weak measures (Iran), no measures (Sweden) and the infection profiles all look the same? Anyone?

    • Replies: @Steve Sailer
    Perhaps, everybody everywhere tends to more or less hunker down no matter what the government orders?
  52. Eyeballing the exponential growth of deaths and the curves so well-plotted for countries and states, I am assuming now that there might be:

    Approximately 100,000 American deaths attributed to Corona-chan by summertime, when this wave will be over.

    This sense comes from the following two sites and others, all generously provided by other commenters:

    https://wattsupwiththat.com/daily-coronavirus-covid-19-data-graph-page/

    https://covidtracking.com/data/us-daily

    If you’ve been watching these, you are not terrorized, you are not surprised by today’s news, and you already know what Steve apparently has just discovered.

  53. @ic1000
    There's the well-known and strange fact that RNA testing for the virus has a false-negative rate of about 30%.

    I looked at a few product inserts for the test EUAs, and sensitivity of the tests run in clinical labs is about 10 "genome equivalents." In other words, if ten or more virus particles are loaded into the test tube (actually, into the well of a 96-well plate), then the test will come back positive. That is very sensitive.

    The nasopharyngeal swab has to be swirled in a small volume of buffer, so if 10% of the buffer is loaded into the well, then 10/0.2 = 50 viruses would be detected. Still very sensitive. (The new Abbott rapid point-of-care ID NOW test is perhaps tenfold less sensitive, by the way.)

    It looks like there is a lot of heterogeneity among infected people. Some shed a great deal of virus into their lungs (and also feces), while other hardly shed any. I haven't seen longitudinal reports about how this changes for a person over time. Presumably, sicker people have a higher viral burden and shed more, in general.

    In other news, the emerging consensus is that spread of Covid-19 is worse than for its sister cornonaviruses SARS and MERS because of the longer incubation period. It seems that much transmission is due to a few super-spreaders, those who shed lots of virus while having few or no symptoms.

    RNA tests (including Abbott's PoC test) should be able to detect nearly 100% of these super-spreaders. Lab tests are being reimbursed at $35 to $50 each.

    With tests finally on the cusp of being widely available, should certain people be swabbed and tested weekly? Those working in hospitals, nursing homes, grocery stores, plus EMTs, cops, mail carriers. The expense of a million tests weekly pales besides the weekly toll of the shutdown.

    RNA tests (including Abbott’s PoC test) …

    I can usually tell PoC without any fancy lab test. Viruses is where i need help.

    • Replies: @Anonymous
    *Viri
    , @jon
    I, too, have pretty good blackdar:

    https://www.theonion.com/i-can-instantly-tell-whether-someone-is-african-america-1819584146
  54. Anon[606] • Disclaimer says:

    The left has become a solid wall of harping on the fact that Red States aren’t locking down 100%. They’ve been handed their talking points, and their goal is to con/scare Red States into locking down so tightly that they’ll wreck their economies. Leftists figure a big depression in Red States will cause their voters to swing to Biden.

    Everyone needs to be warned about this tactic. The blunt fact is that the death rate in Red States is trivial right now. Their less-urbanized and less-dense populations have ‘social distancing’ already baked in the cake.

  55. Another bit of good news: IHME has revised their projected number of U.S. deaths down to 81,766 (till 8/4/20). Hospital beds, ICU demand projection has also come down.

    https://covid19.healthdata.org/projections

  56. So does anybody remember the last time that the world blew its economies up, and only one country had functional factories and industrial base? WWII and the United States, right. And how did that work out for us?

    So after we’ve all destroyed our economies, is there an industrialized country still functional? So who gets to have a 1950’s style golden age in which everything they make, they sell?

    • Replies: @anon
    In WW 2, we didn't just blow up economies. You might say we nuked them.
  57. • Thanks: bruce county
    • Replies: @Jack Armstrong
    Honor Blackman, the actress best known for playing the Bond girl Pussy Galore, has died aged 94.

    Blackman, who became a household name in the 1960s as Cathy Gale in The Avengers and had a career spanning eight decades, died of natural causes unrelated to coronavirus.
  58. anonymous[186] • Disclaimer says:

    Remember the Fed can print money, and use it to buy into ETF futures. They can make the Nasdaq pop every morning, if they want, when they want. I’m thinking the futures pop is due to the fed buying in to begin setting a backfire, and shaking out short-term shooters, so though stocks may remain in a lower range, it will be a bit more stable, while we see what happens next. A 10 point morning opening of Apple, while holding it’s gains throughout the day, teaches a lesson to shorters who were getting too cocky. When you wake up in the morning, and your short position is 10 points against you, and holds up for the day, and the next, you will be less confident and aggressive going forward, especially with overnight shorts.

    For hedge fund traders with a billion or more buying power, supping coffee at their computer desk in their Long Island mansion in their underwear, there’s a dramatically different mindset between “attacking a weak market,” and “saving my ass.” The Fed would like those there guys to retain the latter mindset, going forward. Hedge funders are the hood rats of the stock market. They create problems in markets like this, and shorters need to be demoralized. The Fed always wins them over, eventually. This may be the start of that process.

    If the virus gets a “second wind,” and more bodies start piling up, days like today this will only be… spectacle. I guess the next 10 days are supposed to tell. I was guessing Apple would bottom at 200. I felt on the last downturn, the market was awestruck, but not terrified. Good market bottoms are born in an atmosphere of financial horror. I wasn’t feeling it. We’ll see…

    • Replies: @Thoughts
    Or this is just the B wave up of an ABC down for the 4th wave of a Bull Market?
  59. Anon[362] • Disclaimer says:

    In a gruesome Twitter thread by New York City councilman Mark Levine he says that the city is running out of refrigerator trailers for corpses (100 capacity), so they plan to backhoe trenches in New York public parks to temporarily bury bodies. A commenter suggested requisitioning golf courses, which was popular because Trump the Fascist likes golf. Levine also said that they are not even swabbing died-at-home corpses (200 a day, ten times normal) for Covid-19 tests, so death figures are increasingly inaccurate and low.

  60. anonymous[186] • Disclaimer says:
    @Alfa158
    I have to compliment the would be humorist who calls himself Tiny Duck for not posting any of his satirical comments on the Covid articles. Apparently he realizes that this is a, literally, deadly serious issue with people dying and economies wrecked, and so out of respect he is refraining from the lame parodies of brain dead Leftists and POC he usually tries to entertain us with.

    I have to compliment the would be humorist who calls himself Tiny Duck for not posting any of his satirical comments on the Covid articles. Apparently he realizes that this is a, literally, deadly serious issue with people dying and economies wrecked, and so out of respect he is refraining from the lame parodies of brain dead Leftists and POC he usually tries to entertain us with.

    It’s funny how quiet the leftists, anarchists, Black Lives Matter and the rest of the Racial Industrial Complex get when the stakes are their ass–and predictable.

    Anarchists, in particular should be out in the streets going crazy right now. Tactically speaking, it’s a no-brainer. Where are they? Not an angry masked fat chick in sight. Those Starbuck’s store windows aren’t going to break themselves…

  61. https://thefederalist.com/2020/04/03/why-severe-social-distancing-might-actually-result-in-more-coronavirus-deaths/

    Steve,
    Have you addressed this? What if social distancing is making it worse?
    If the “authorities” had been wrong all along, do you think they would admit it?

  62. Anon[362] • Disclaimer says:

    OT

    Japanese television programs are now being produced by dramatically reduced skeleton staff, as few as two people, camera and director. Post-pandemic I wonder how many businesses will think, “We never really needed all those people!”? Pareto’s Law, 20 percent of the staff can produce 80 percent of the profit? Unemployment may never recover, unless the bring all that manufacturing back from China.

    • Replies: @dfordoom

    Unemployment may never recover, unless the bring all that manufacturing back from China.
     
    If that manufacturing is brought back from China there will be calls from the corporate sector for massively increased immigration. Otherwise factories will be rotting in the fields. The corporate sector will only be interested in reopening factories if they're guaranteed a supply of cheap labour.

    And any new factories that open will be very heavily automated.

    So even if some manufacturing is brought back from China unemployment rates will remain very very high.

    Whether manufacturing is outsourced, or becomes almost entirely automated, or is done by cheap imported labour, you can be sure that those jobs are never coming back for the ordinary Americans who so desperately need them.
  63. Anonymous[315] • Disclaimer says:

    I’ll be more optimistic after lagging moving averages start showing a decline. Single day fluctuations are not very significant in the face of vigorously rising moving average trendlines.

  64. res says:

    Based on a peak in daily new cases on 3/21 we would expect daily deaths to peak something like 9 days later (symptoms to death). Which seems to have happened (more like 6-7, but that seems reasonable as symptoms-case lag).

    What I find even more encouraging is the sharp fall in daily deaths seen over the last two days (4/3-4/5, from 766 to 681 to 525). Now we just have to wait and see if that was real or noise.

    I don’t see any way to embed the relevant plot directly so go take a look at
    https://www.worldometers.info/coronavirus/country/italy/
    I think this is the same source as Steve’s plot.

    P.S. In the latest updates they give the 4/6 data for Italy (not in the charts yet).
    3599 new cases and 636 new deaths in Italy
    So the drop in deaths was at least partly noise. But there was a sharp drop in cases.

  65. The question is, will this decline in acceleration be mistakenly attributed to our draconian, finance-destroying measures? So far, there is no evidence that our refusal to push the (old, diabetic) fat man in front of the trolly has actually yielded this result.

    What we have here, besides a failure to communicate, is an inability and refusal to separate out variables. The success of plunging ourselves into a great depression over this is un-falsifiable.

    Ignore anybody in the near future who says anything is the result of what we have done. Study the curves for the wide variety of countries who have handled this thing differently. You cannot prove that the price (which our people will pay for a generation) was worth it, any more than I can prove it was not.

    • Agree: Old Palo Altan
    • Replies: @Smithsonian_2

    What we have here, besides a failure to communicate, is an inability and refusal to separate out variables. The success of plunging ourselves into a great depression over this is un-falsifiable.
     
    We are going to have to have the mother of all public enquiries when this is over to sort out questions like this.
    , @dfordoom

    The question is, will this decline in acceleration be mistakenly attributed to our draconian, finance-destroying measures?
     
    Undoubtedly. And it will then be argued that we need to keep to keep many of the outrageous restrictions in place because it's now been proven that they work. So instead of the lockdowns ending we'll go from full lockdowns to semi-permanent or even permanent partial lockdowns.
    , @vhrm

    The question is, will this decline in acceleration be mistakenly attributed to our draconian, finance-destroying measures? So far, there is no evidence that our refusal to push the (old, diabetic) fat man in front of the trolly has actually yielded this result.

    What we have here, besides a failure to communicate, is an inability and refusal to separate out variables. The success of plunging ourselves into a great depression over this is un-falsifiable.
     
    a) It's going to be interesting. Hopefully some epidemiologists and economists have the intellectual and academic honesty to do honest and insightful after action studies.

    But the incentives for them and for politicians is to take a victory lap.

    Since the government just created many trillions of dollars, so far you can't even have shareholders making noise because devaluation of the currency and how it steals the money of savers isn't something that we really argue about nowadays. People (in the media) seem to LIKE million dollar houses that should be $250k.

    b) In runaway trolley terms where action vs inaction is key, we DID throw a switch to save the five people, and redirected the trolley into the city's commercial sector. It's the middle of the night so only a couple of security guards we injured and nobody does. But it caused billions of dollars of damage to the stores and businesses, and rolled into the airport and destroyed it, and finally ran into a cruise ship docked in the harbor and sank it. A business owner would later commit suicide.

    And of the five people, 1 got hit by a piece of the trolley anyway and died, and another one died of unrelated causes before the trolley even stopped. The other three are thankful to be alive but wondering if their kids still have jobs.
    , @utu
    "So far, there is no evidence [...] has actually yielded this result." - Really? So, you are saying that w/o the countermeasure in Italy the same number or lower would die. Lombardy with 16% population of Italy accounts for 56% of death cases. If Covid was allowed to spread to other provinces and reach the same saturation as it reached in Lombardy, Italy by now would have had over 50,000 deaths. Furthermore the collapse of the medical system in the whole country would be much more severe as the resources could not be reallocated from less affected regions to more affected regions as it is being done now which helps to reduce mortality in hot spots like Lombardy. But you are saying that this would not have happened.
  66. So the sky isn’t falling? Bodies aren’t piling up in the streets, stadiums and parks?

    Too bad, many people I know have been waiting like vultures to buy real estate once the prices go down enough. They started buying stocks about March 15.

    • Replies: @Testing12
    There's maybe three types of people who believed this was zombie apocalypse.

    - liberals who hate Trump so much they would watch and cheer the whole country burning if it cost him the election

    - Nerds with no common sense who geeked out on "muh exponential growth" charts. You may find other examples of these senseless dorks in the historical record planning for transhumanism and the tech singularity in 2020 due to some Moores law projection, or losing their shit over "Roko's Basilisk" thought experiments.

    - elderly Boomer folk who are personally terrified of COVID due to the disproportionate personal threat it poses to themselves. Only this group is sympathetic.
  67. Anonymous[717] • Disclaimer says: • Website

    Hype-a-titis

    • LOL: Cortes
  68. @YetAnotherAnon
    Isn't daily new cases more a function of the number of tests than the number actually infected? Or are these hospital admissions?

    IIRC China stated that if you tested positive but were asymptomatic, you weren't counted as a 'case'.

    Even deaths have their problems, as they are only deaths in hospital, so the 13 or 14 deaths in a single Scottish care home don't go on UK totals.

    I wonder how many cases were spread by International Women's Day on March 8, when CV19 was a known threat and some parts of Italy were already in lockdown? Practically none of the demonstrators were social distancing. There was a huge demo in Madrid, subsequently a hotspot. Paris and London, too.

    https://www.theguardian.com/politics/live/2020/mar/08/international-womens-day

    13 or 14 deaths in a single Scottish care home

    Let’s see.
    Covid-19 linked to 13 deaths at Scottish care home

    A total of 13 people at the Burlington Court care home in the east end of Glasgow have died in the past seven days

    No cause of death is mentioned.

    None of the patients were tested for Covid-19

    Um, ok.

    A total of 13 people

    Very unlucky.

  69. Without any lockdown, an uncontrolled epidemic was projected to make too many people too sick too contemporaneously and overwhelm the hospitals, thereby killing lots of people who would have otherwise become seriously ill with COVID-19, but not died with good care. Yet, a substantial number of people would die of COVID-19 even with the absolute best care they could get in their country. While the lockdown lasts, those people have a reprieve, but only a full pardon if one assumes a lockdown that lasts until after they die of something else

    We may learn a lot about what kind of health care is really necessary and what kind isn’t.

    So taxes can be cut? The unnecessary is necessary because it keeps the whole thing ticking over with massive excess capacity that can be drawn on in a catastrophe. If it wasn’t for people wasting doctors’ time the system would have been run down even further, even though there was the money to pay for it.

    Spain was most overwhelmed judging by the their death rate, but Spain was too weak economically to have done things differently. America’s death rates so far are tracking Italy’s, and neither had an income tax until 1910-20. Always the outlier, Germany has a very significantly lower death rate, has had an income tax since 1880, and etaxes very heavily while spending hardly anything on defence. They prioritise education health, and manufacturing. As a result German have a gold plated health service staffed by an abundance of superbly trained individuals that usually have so little to do they have to make up illnesses like low blood pressure to diagnose.

    You need a gold plated health service to cope with an emergency. This emergency will continue long after the lockdown ends, and resources re-allocation will be far more disruptive in other countries that in subtly mercantilist defence freerider Germany and its totalitarian capital goods customer China. For instance, to supply the vast number of masks required the cheapest ones must be bought and that means buying from China. Economic strength has consequences, so does long term misallocation of resources, through pressure for lowering taxes and asset stipping to increase shareholder value. The West has been exposed as like a bodybuilder in competition shape with zero per cent fat and skin like tissue paper. Sure, he appears to be strong and efficient, but in reality he is out of reserves and can hardly stand.

  70. res says:

    This (second link) looks like a worthwhile site from the Worldometers April 5th update for the US.
    https://www.worldometers.info/coronavirus/country/us/

    State-by-state forecast shows projected number of deaths in each state and nationwide, measuring the impact on health systems: hospital beds, ICU bed shortages, and ventilators needed. COVID-19 forecasting model updated in real-time created by Dr. Christopher Murray and researchers in Washington state and used by the US Government. [view here]

    https://covid19.healthdata.org/projections

    They base their model on full social distancing through May 2020 and estimate US peak resource use on 4/15, peak daily deaths (3,130) on 4/16, and total deaths through August 4th as 81,766.

    On the peak date they show overcapacity estimates of
    All beds needed – 140,823 beds
    Bed shortage – 36,654 beds
    ICU beds needed – 29,210 beds
    ICU bed shortage – 16,323 beds
    So they are estimating peak ICU capacity at about 225% which is significantly worse than the 150% maximum I was using.

    They allow downloading the estimates (link at bottom) and link to (much!) additional information at
    http://www.healthdata.org/covid/updates

    Note that their model update 1 is following a methodology similar to what I have been advocating.

    we now estimate the time from implementation of social distancing policies to the peak of daily deaths using all eight locations where the number of daily deaths appears to be peaking or to have peaked

    I don’t see them explicitly giving their estimate, but it looks more like Ron’s three weeks (based on the graphs they show for their data) than my 16-17 day estimate. I am beginning to suspect Louisiana may be an outlier because of weather causing it to respond relatively well.

    This model looks rather impressive to me, but I would appreciate other opinions.

    Their page also includes models for individual states. Well worth a look! I would suggest checking out CA, NY, and LA. Another good feature of those pages is they summarize the timing of social isolation measures for each state.

    Great site! Kudos to whoever put the model and site together!

    P.S. One good thing about models like this is they should allow us to do after the fact looks at what might have happened without the shutdowns. Once we have all the data for what really happened I suspect we will be able to do decent analysis of hypothetical scenarios (e.g. looking at earlier and later countermeasures).

    • Replies: @tc
    The model has come under fire for vastly overstating the hospital beds, ICUs and ventilators necessary in New York.

    https://twitter.com/AlexBerenson/status/1246825831864963073

    The @IHME_UW model vs reality for New York State, April 5. The model is less accurate than ever. 69K beds projected, 16.5K actually needed; 12,346 ICU beds projected, 4376 needed. Even better (tho not for the model), overall bed count rose less than 600 statewide - less than 4%.
    , @Polynikes
    On one hand, I want to give them credit for earnestly altering their model as new data comes in.

    On the other hand, I checked their March 30th predictions and they already have cut hospital beds needed in half. Their NY numbers predicted on the 30th are beyond ridiculous. They have NY with a 58k bed shortage on April 9th. As of yesterday, NY currently has 16k TOTAL in hospital beds with the rate stabilizing (only ~500 added yesterday).

    These are on models that are a few days old. Quite frankly they're rather useless to us now--well they were then, too. We needed people that could model things appropriately 2 months out back in February. Being able to accurately predict things out 2 days doesn't leave your model much use in practical terms to anybody that matters. And these guys...again credit for to them for being flexible...are having drastic swings and misses a few days out.
    , @prime noticer
    "One good thing about models like this is they should allow us to do after the fact looks at what might have happened without the shutdowns. Once we have all the data for what really happened I suspect we will be able to do decent analysis of hypothetical scenarios"

    this is the only important discussion with regard to the medical situation and risk evaluation. although we have lots of data from previous epidemics, so this isn't the first time risk forecasting has been done.

    Ron and Anatoly are correct, in the abstract, that total lockdown reduces the number of citizens who get killed by the virus. lockdown also reduces the number of car crash deaths, flu deaths, murders, and so forth. so right off the bat you have a confounding variable.

    second, there are intermediate positions between doing nothing differently at all, versus martial law. you would want to model intermediate versions of pathogen of mitigation. what if we just quarantined people over 60. how would that go.

    a lot of the discussion focuses on virulence of the pathogen, but presently we don't even have an agreed upon standard for counting virus deaths. and the number of deaths is the main metric to focus on. extrapolating from number of confirmed cases to number of actual cases is somewhat like chasing a mirage. you'll never know number of actual cases.
  71. Off topic: Evidence that Italians and Euros in general are much more susceptible to corona than Asians.

    Bio warfare? https://www.medrxiv.org/content/10.1101/2020.04.03.20047977v1.full.pdf

    • Replies: @Anon
    Not biological warfare. The genetic variants discussed in the paper are not that common in Italians, though they appear to make some Italians more vulnerable to Covid-19. Other Europeans were not assessed at all as to whether they have these variants. The missense changes that created these variants are 'mistakes' in the genetic code created by DNA replication errors.

    If you're still worried about biological warfare, go look at Germany's Covid-19 death rate. With over 100,000 cases--a large enough sample size--they're still at only a 1.75% death rate, much lower than Italy's 12% death rate.

    For what it's worth, Italy had twice the death rate of northern European countries during the 1918 pandemic, and it may have been for the same reasons, namely genetic mistakes in their DNA that made some of their population more vulnerable to any flu that targeted receptors in the lungs.
  72. @Buzz Mohawk
    The question is, will this decline in acceleration be mistakenly attributed to our draconian, finance-destroying measures? So far, there is no evidence that our refusal to push the (old, diabetic) fat man in front of the trolly has actually yielded this result.

    What we have here, besides a failure to communicate, is an inability and refusal to separate out variables. The success of plunging ourselves into a great depression over this is un-falsifiable.

    Ignore anybody in the near future who says anything is the result of what we have done. Study the curves for the wide variety of countries who have handled this thing differently. You cannot prove that the price (which our people will pay for a generation) was worth it, any more than I can prove it was not.

    What we have here, besides a failure to communicate, is an inability and refusal to separate out variables. The success of plunging ourselves into a great depression over this is un-falsifiable.

    We are going to have to have the mother of all public enquiries when this is over to sort out questions like this.

    • Replies: @Joseph Doaks
    We should, but we'll probably get Impeachment 2.0!
    , @dfordoom


    What we have here, besides a failure to communicate, is an inability and refusal to separate out variables. The success of plunging ourselves into a great depression over this is un-falsifiable.
     
    We are going to have to have the mother of all public enquiries when this is over to sort out questions like this.
     
    I'll make a prediction that there won't be any public enquiries at all. There is absolutely no-one in government or the bureaucracy or the medical establishment who is going to want any difficult questions asked. None of the experts who made wild claims (one way or another) will want any awkward questions asked.

    And neither Trump nor the GOPe nor the Democrats will want any scrutiny of their handling of the situation.
  73. Anonymous[337] • Disclaimer says:
    @Hebrew National
    Let's hope so.

    This thing has everyone thinking about the meaning of first vs second vs third derivatives. Very educational.

    sigma bruh….f(x) is for proles..

  74. Anonymous[337] • Disclaimer says:
    @AnotherDad

    RNA tests (including Abbott’s PoC test) ...
     
    I can usually tell PoC without any fancy lab test. Viruses is where i need help.

    *Viri

    • Replies: @Je Suis Omar Mateen
    *Virums
  75. tc says:
    @res
    This (second link) looks like a worthwhile site from the Worldometers April 5th update for the US.
    https://www.worldometers.info/coronavirus/country/us/

    State-by-state forecast shows projected number of deaths in each state and nationwide, measuring the impact on health systems: hospital beds, ICU bed shortages, and ventilators needed. COVID-19 forecasting model updated in real-time created by Dr. Christopher Murray and researchers in Washington state and used by the US Government. [view here]
     
    https://covid19.healthdata.org/projections

    They base their model on full social distancing through May 2020 and estimate US peak resource use on 4/15, peak daily deaths (3,130) on 4/16, and total deaths through August 4th as 81,766.

    On the peak date they show overcapacity estimates of
    All beds needed - 140,823 beds
    Bed shortage - 36,654 beds
    ICU beds needed - 29,210 beds
    ICU bed shortage - 16,323 beds
    So they are estimating peak ICU capacity at about 225% which is significantly worse than the 150% maximum I was using.

    They allow downloading the estimates (link at bottom) and link to (much!) additional information at
    http://www.healthdata.org/covid/updates

    Note that their model update 1 is following a methodology similar to what I have been advocating.


    we now estimate the time from implementation of social distancing policies to the peak of daily deaths using all eight locations where the number of daily deaths appears to be peaking or to have peaked
     
    I don't see them explicitly giving their estimate, but it looks more like Ron's three weeks (based on the graphs they show for their data) than my 16-17 day estimate. I am beginning to suspect Louisiana may be an outlier because of weather causing it to respond relatively well.

    This model looks rather impressive to me, but I would appreciate other opinions.

    Their page also includes models for individual states. Well worth a look! I would suggest checking out CA, NY, and LA. Another good feature of those pages is they summarize the timing of social isolation measures for each state.

    Great site! Kudos to whoever put the model and site together!

    P.S. One good thing about models like this is they should allow us to do after the fact looks at what might have happened without the shutdowns. Once we have all the data for what really happened I suspect we will be able to do decent analysis of hypothetical scenarios (e.g. looking at earlier and later countermeasures).

    The model has come under fire for vastly overstating the hospital beds, ICUs and ventilators necessary in New York.

    The @IHME_UW model vs reality for New York State, April 5. The model is less accurate than ever. 69K beds projected, 16.5K actually needed; 12,346 ICU beds projected, 4376 needed. Even better (tho not for the model), overall bed count rose less than 600 statewide – less than 4%.

    • Thanks: res
  76. @Corvinus
    "Turning a Corner?"

    Maybe. Maybe not.

    https://www.nbcchicago.com/news/national-international/this-is-how-well-know-weve-turned-a-corner-on-covd-19-in-new-york-experts-say/2247698/

    The latest update from Cuomo is pretty striking. New hospitalizations fell to 358, a 75% drop in four days.

  77. Free, nationalized, fully-funded (because, remember, neoliberals have found ways to de-fund nationalized health care in Canada and England–eternal optimists they be) health care is the kind we need.

    The kind we have is the kind we don’t need.

  78. Anonymous[134] • Disclaimer says:

    It sounds like this idea of convalescent plasma therapy to improve clinical outcomes of patients with severe disease related to COVID-19 is showing some promise. I wonder what the shelf life on such plasmas is, and whether the younger, healthier members of a family could voluntarily contract the disease and save the plasma for older family members who eventually get sick. This could mark a real turning point.
    Thoughts?

  79. Off topic but right up your street, Steve: https://quillette.com/2020/04/04/wheres-harvey-weinstein-headed-its-a-place-i-know/

    >>When I was sent to Downstate from Rikers in 2004, my likely fate was to spend six weeks there before being sent up to Clinton or Attica to start working down my max time to get down to a medium (and therefore down south, closer to New York City). Instead I was recruited by Jewish Services.

    While I was still in the sorting hat, Rabbi Leser took a look at me and pulled me over for a talk about the shabbat and other matters.

    “You need kosher food?” he asked.

    “I’m fine,” I said, afraid to stand out and be marked as a Jew in a world that included a few Nation of Islam members and Aryan types. He looked at me with pity, realizing I was still an idiot.

    “You want to spend time with Jewish prisoners? Talk to other people who went to a nice school like you did?”

    I’d graduated NYU three years before, but now was set to serve 10 years for robbery after succumbing to heroin addiction. This time, I got the hint, and said that I actually do need kosher food. Very much so. Eleven days later, I was at Green Haven, just a hundred miles from my wife and parents, with a congregation that included stereotype-approved crooked lawyers, quack doctors, Hasidic diamond thieves, an Israeli ecstasy ring, and a Sephardic sadist.

    The Mashgiach was Ronny the Rapo, and he kept the kitchen right. We had a blow torch to remove the chametz before Passover. For four years. I celebrated every holiday in Orthodox fashion, ate gefilte fish, and drank grape-juice hooch.<<

    • Replies: @Hippopotamusdrome


    afraid to stand out and be marked as a Jew in a world that included a few Nation of Islam members

     

    Why does this racist Torah thumper hate and fear black people? We need to assign him an integrated cell with a NOI bunkmate because familiarity will overcome prejudice.
    , @SFG
    I read that. I did laugh as I imagined the Jewish block had to be a lot less dangerous.

    On the one hand, yes, he is taking unfair advantage of the system. On the other, well, the Aryan Nations isn't going to take him as a white person even if he wants to be--there's no Stephen Miller option in lockup.

    I have to admit I'd probably do the same. Jail is scary.
  80. Meanwhile…..

    US to label white supremacist group as terrorist organization for first time

    The Trump administration reportedly plans to designate the far-right Russian Imperial Movement as a terrorist organization, the first time the designation has been applied to a white supremacist group.

    The designation will allow the Treasury Department’s Office of Foreign Assets Control to seize assets belonging to the organization in the U.S. and prohibit Americans from financial dealings with the group.

    Officials said the U.S. will also designate three of the organization’s leaders, Stanislav Anatolyevich Vorobyev, Denis Valliullovich Gariev and Nikolay Nikolayevich Trushchalov, as terrorists, making them subject to similar sanctions at a personal level.

    Mary McCord, a former head of the Justice Department’s National Security Division, called the expansion “important.”

    “Far-right extremist causes, in particular white supremacy and white nationalism, have become more international,” she told the Times. “It is appropriate for the State Department to have been scrutinizing whether there are organizations that meet the criteria for that designation because with it, the organization becomes poison in terms of doing business with it or providing funds, goods or services to it.

    https://thehill.com/policy/international/terrorism/491323-us-to-label-white-supremacist-group-terrorist-for-first-time

    • Replies: @J.Ross
    Thank god the FBI is once again saving us from something they made up.
  81. @syonredux
    Meanwhile.....

    US to label white supremacist group as terrorist organization for first time

    The Trump administration reportedly plans to designate the far-right Russian Imperial Movement as a terrorist organization, the first time the designation has been applied to a white supremacist group.

    The designation will allow the Treasury Department’s Office of Foreign Assets Control to seize assets belonging to the organization in the U.S. and prohibit Americans from financial dealings with the group.

    Officials said the U.S. will also designate three of the organization’s leaders, Stanislav Anatolyevich Vorobyev, Denis Valliullovich Gariev and Nikolay Nikolayevich Trushchalov, as terrorists, making them subject to similar sanctions at a personal level.
     

    Mary McCord, a former head of the Justice Department’s National Security Division, called the expansion “important.”
     

    “Far-right extremist causes, in particular white supremacy and white nationalism, have become more international,” she told the Times. “It is appropriate for the State Department to have been scrutinizing whether there are organizations that meet the criteria for that designation because with it, the organization becomes poison in terms of doing business with it or providing funds, goods or services to it.
     
    https://thehill.com/policy/international/terrorism/491323-us-to-label-white-supremacist-group-terrorist-for-first-time

    Thank god the FBI is once again saving us from something they made up.

  82. Twelve deaths in a Bobcaygeon nursing home. Google that town Steve. Ever hear of the Tragically Hip?

  83. Anonymous[698] • Disclaimer says:

    IT’S HAPPENING. FINALLY.

    Trump is marshalling forces in The Great Chloroquine War!

    Second consecutive day Trump hit the HYDROXYCHLOROQUINE+AZITHROMYCIN message at White House. Hit it very hard in Saturday’s marathon presser. He pounded it at least three seperate times then. Big push to a new level Sunday.

    Trump said massive amounts HCQ are going out from 29 million dose national stockpile.

    The Navy Joint Chief then described their hydroxychloroquine operation: Millions of doses going out in a MASSIVE SURGE DIRECTLY TO PHARMACIES!

    This is a giant *middle finger* to sandbaggers like Gov Cuomo…

    Trump is using the military to go around any blockade by Orange Man Bad politicians pharmacists doctors hospital administrators etc. They will have NO EXCUSES after he floods each hot zone with the Didier Raoult protocol medicines.

    Any other POTUS would cave but Trump is not backing down to Big Pharma Bill Gates Fauci etc.

    MDs Raoult Smith Zelenko just keep building the data. ~2500 patients between them and now another guy out in L.A.

    Sanjay Gupta’s heart is broken.

    WINNING.

    • Replies: @Hibernian
    https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=0FmPg4lrBKc
    , @Corvinus
    Anony 698 is also Anony 217! A sock puppet, or a Russian bot, take your pick. Anony 217 reared her ugly head on the "Panama Only Letting Men..." out post.

    "Second consecutive day Trump hit the HYDROXYCHLOROQUINE+AZITHROMYCIN message at White House."

    I would hold your horses there. Much research still needs to be done.

    https://blogs.sciencemag.org/pipeline/archives/2020/03/31/comparing-chloroquine-trials

    And this from Fox News. Doesn't Trump trust them?

    https://twitter.com/LisPower1/status/1247233437519536129
  84. @Alfa158
    Ok so now you have preempted Corvinus from demanding double blind studies. I guess you and I must be Russian bots. And I didn’t even know I was.

    Study away like a co-ed at Brown getting a degree in international SJW relations while social distancing from the deplorables and demanding someone pay those loans you took out to culturally enrich yourself with a study abroad. That ought to be good for a couple of years.

  85. anon[359] • Disclaimer says:

    Anecdotal data point: out here in flyover, the local blood bank has canceled all its on-site drives at uni’s, schools, office complexes, etc. for the duration. So they’ve asked for previous donors to drop by one of their centers and bleed. I did that.

    The front door had about 5 posters on it. “IF you have these symptoms, don’t even come inside!”, etc. Right inside the door was a tape square on the floor – wait here until we take your temperature. The waiting area table had been removed, a few chairs were spaced 2 meters apart with tape on the floor to locate them. There weren’t many people around.

    Nobody was wearing a mask, not even the tech who took my temp. But the odor of alcohol was in the air as any tech with a free minute was going around wiping down chairs, countertops, anything that people had touched. Once in the work zone it was a usual donation, which means zero social distancing in order to check hemoglobin, and answering the usual questions on a desktop computer that was probably wiped down afterwards.

    They were only taking whole blood, the other options that involve more complicated equipment such as platelets, plasma, red blood cells were not being performed. Nobody was coughing or sneezing, but nobody was joking about that stuff either. The after-bleed snack was available inside a ziplock but I don’t do that, just drink water. The usual terrible choice in TV on the wall, gameshows. Oh, well, I had a tablet with me.

    A reasonable balance between prudence and getting blood donations was achieved IMO. This slice of life goes on.

    • Replies: @Steve Sailer
    Thanks.

    Add masks and goggles to the mix for everybody and this seems like a pretty sustainable model going forward.
    , @utu
    OT but a propos: Coronavirus has not been found in blood so far.
  86. OT
    Orangeman ban

    Twelfth of July parades cancelled due to outbreak

    The Orange Lodge of Ireland has confirmed the traditional parades will not go ahead this summer.

    • Replies: @Reg Cæsar
    Today is-- or was-- Tartan Day.


    https://www.highlandtradingcompany.com/product_images/uploaded_images/tartan-usa-canada-copyright.jpg


    https://images.rove.me/w_740,q_85/gnzu6t59azrlf7wmbfgl/new-york-new-york-city-tartan-day-parade.jpg


    It's the 700th anniversary of the Declaration of Arbroath.

    https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Declaration_of_Arbroath

    , @Hibernian
    A victory for the IRA?
  87. @Simon in London
    Off topic but right up your street, Steve: https://quillette.com/2020/04/04/wheres-harvey-weinstein-headed-its-a-place-i-know/

    >>When I was sent to Downstate from Rikers in 2004, my likely fate was to spend six weeks there before being sent up to Clinton or Attica to start working down my max time to get down to a medium (and therefore down south, closer to New York City). Instead I was recruited by Jewish Services.

    While I was still in the sorting hat, Rabbi Leser took a look at me and pulled me over for a talk about the shabbat and other matters.

    “You need kosher food?” he asked.

    “I’m fine,” I said, afraid to stand out and be marked as a Jew in a world that included a few Nation of Islam members and Aryan types. He looked at me with pity, realizing I was still an idiot.

    “You want to spend time with Jewish prisoners? Talk to other people who went to a nice school like you did?”

    I’d graduated NYU three years before, but now was set to serve 10 years for robbery after succumbing to heroin addiction. This time, I got the hint, and said that I actually do need kosher food. Very much so. Eleven days later, I was at Green Haven, just a hundred miles from my wife and parents, with a congregation that included stereotype-approved crooked lawyers, quack doctors, Hasidic diamond thieves, an Israeli ecstasy ring, and a Sephardic sadist.

    The Mashgiach was Ronny the Rapo, and he kept the kitchen right. We had a blow torch to remove the chametz before Passover. For four years. I celebrated every holiday in Orthodox fashion, ate gefilte fish, and drank grape-juice hooch.<<

    afraid to stand out and be marked as a Jew in a world that included a few Nation of Islam members

    Why does this racist Torah thumper hate and fear black people? We need to assign him an integrated cell with a NOI bunkmate because familiarity will overcome prejudice.

  88. anon[356] • Disclaimer says:
    @MG
    The UW model that Fauci and Birx rely on is wildly off for prediction of hospital beds. It is somewhat better for deaths. They should have never relied on one model.

    Also: there is something to the “Trump pills” (which the media are praying wont work) -

    https://twitter.com/geoffpilkington/status/1247065352191660032?s=21

    https://www.contagionlive.com/news/results-from-a-controlled-trial-of-hydroxychloroquine-for-covid19

    A moderate size controlled trial with favorable results.

    The LA Doctor says zinc is the secret sauce. Who knows? Maybe it is a placebo, but the other drugs in the combo will work. At least there is enough of it now. So no lupus users will go without.

    Trump and his media rivals are doubling down over this. I would think Trump should have some inside knowledge of incomplete trial results, but who knows. Meanwhile, no one is especially against it except the WP an NYT and the like. Their latest articles imply that side effects are not well known or that there are still shortages this week.

    It is already widely used in the US, so the only thing not known is if its early use reduces serious cases. Use in hospital patients hasn’t prevented the venting/deaths.

    With the shutdown costing over $20 B / day, its not an expensive gamble.

  89. @Alfa158
    I have to compliment the would be humorist who calls himself Tiny Duck for not posting any of his satirical comments on the Covid articles. Apparently he realizes that this is a, literally, deadly serious issue with people dying and economies wrecked, and so out of respect he is refraining from the lame parodies of brain dead Leftists and POC he usually tries to entertain us with.

    I have to compliment the would be humorist who calls himself Tiny Duck for not posting any of his satirical comments on the Covid articles.

    The Duck may be down with the bird flu. Unfortunately, the humorless Crow has been hyperactive in his absence. ISteve is infected with Corvid-19, but I wouldn’t call it “positive”.

    • LOL: Patrick in SC
    • Replies: @Alfa158
    Pretty funny. Yeah I think Corvinus is sort of a real world, milder example of the people TD is spoofing. At least his spelling is good and he isn’t deranged like the people TD makes fun of.
  90. Anonymous[698] • Disclaimer says:

    This model looks rather impressive to me, but I would appreciate other opinions.

    Why put any faith in these models at all? Track record is awful. It’s a giant propaganda campaign.

    The logical reason they’ve utterly blown the hospital beds filled numbers while being much closer on the death rates numbers is THEY ARE PADDING THE DEATH RATES AS PER THE ABSURD CDC INSTRUCTIONS TO DO SO.

    If we had honesty in the death rate calculations then the models would be off the mark consistently both beds and deaths.

    Here are their lenient guidelines for classifying covid deaths:

    pbs.twimg.com/media/EUxfJ22XsAAELGx.jpg

    THE POLICY IS MARK IT DOWN COVID…

  91. @res
    This (second link) looks like a worthwhile site from the Worldometers April 5th update for the US.
    https://www.worldometers.info/coronavirus/country/us/

    State-by-state forecast shows projected number of deaths in each state and nationwide, measuring the impact on health systems: hospital beds, ICU bed shortages, and ventilators needed. COVID-19 forecasting model updated in real-time created by Dr. Christopher Murray and researchers in Washington state and used by the US Government. [view here]
     
    https://covid19.healthdata.org/projections

    They base their model on full social distancing through May 2020 and estimate US peak resource use on 4/15, peak daily deaths (3,130) on 4/16, and total deaths through August 4th as 81,766.

    On the peak date they show overcapacity estimates of
    All beds needed - 140,823 beds
    Bed shortage - 36,654 beds
    ICU beds needed - 29,210 beds
    ICU bed shortage - 16,323 beds
    So they are estimating peak ICU capacity at about 225% which is significantly worse than the 150% maximum I was using.

    They allow downloading the estimates (link at bottom) and link to (much!) additional information at
    http://www.healthdata.org/covid/updates

    Note that their model update 1 is following a methodology similar to what I have been advocating.


    we now estimate the time from implementation of social distancing policies to the peak of daily deaths using all eight locations where the number of daily deaths appears to be peaking or to have peaked
     
    I don't see them explicitly giving their estimate, but it looks more like Ron's three weeks (based on the graphs they show for their data) than my 16-17 day estimate. I am beginning to suspect Louisiana may be an outlier because of weather causing it to respond relatively well.

    This model looks rather impressive to me, but I would appreciate other opinions.

    Their page also includes models for individual states. Well worth a look! I would suggest checking out CA, NY, and LA. Another good feature of those pages is they summarize the timing of social isolation measures for each state.

    Great site! Kudos to whoever put the model and site together!

    P.S. One good thing about models like this is they should allow us to do after the fact looks at what might have happened without the shutdowns. Once we have all the data for what really happened I suspect we will be able to do decent analysis of hypothetical scenarios (e.g. looking at earlier and later countermeasures).

    On one hand, I want to give them credit for earnestly altering their model as new data comes in.

    On the other hand, I checked their March 30th predictions and they already have cut hospital beds needed in half. Their NY numbers predicted on the 30th are beyond ridiculous. They have NY with a 58k bed shortage on April 9th. As of yesterday, NY currently has 16k TOTAL in hospital beds with the rate stabilizing (only ~500 added yesterday).

    These are on models that are a few days old. Quite frankly they’re rather useless to us now–well they were then, too. We needed people that could model things appropriately 2 months out back in February. Being able to accurately predict things out 2 days doesn’t leave your model much use in practical terms to anybody that matters. And these guys…again credit for to them for being flexible…are having drastic swings and misses a few days out.

    • Replies: @res
    The predictive performance has been poor (and thanks to you and tc for pointing that out) especially for bed capacity, but I still think the following are worth noting.
    - The deaths data gives a nice display of the daily death rate progression using the real data to date. And the death predictions seem more reasonable than the capacity predictions.
    - Hopefully we will be able to keep updating the models to the point where they are actually usable for the first wave in late starting states and later waves everywhere.
  92. Anonymous[291] • Disclaimer says: • Website

    Is this a real doctor or some troll?

  93. Looks like it.

    Anyone know which model Birx and Fauci were using that predicted >200k deaths at peak with mitigation?

  94. @Jack D
    The elderly are mostly in hiding now and this is about to become a ghetto disease.

    https://www.dailymail.co.uk/news/article-8190633/New-Orleans-convention-center-prepares-start-accepting-thousands-coronavirus-patients.html

    CDC report reveals 78% of COVID-19 patients in ICUs in the United States had an underlying health condition.

    In New Orleans 39% of residents have high blood pressure, 36% suffering from obesity and 15% have diabetes.

    …about to become a ghetto disease

    Well, sometimes it seems the whole world is eliding into a ghetto.

  95. @Hippopotamusdrome
    OT
    Orangeman ban


    Twelfth of July parades cancelled due to outbreak

    The Orange Lodge of Ireland has confirmed the traditional parades will not go ahead this summer.

     

    Today is– or was– Tartan Day.


    It’s the 700th anniversary of the Declaration of Arbroath.

    https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Declaration_of_Arbroath

  96. I’m not sure how much weight can be put in these trends of official infections because it’s pretty clear they’re a small fraction of the true total.

    For example, consider Italy. Officially, there are about 132K total infected cases, and the trend lines are based on those.

    But there are 13K officially confirmed deaths, and it’s been very widely estimated, including by the WSJ, that the true figure is 3-5x larger because they don’t bother to test the dead. So we’re probably talking about 50-60K deaths. Even with a high death rate of 5%, that suggests at least a million infections 2-3 weeks ago, so probably substantially larger now, even with the lockdown. Thus, officially reported infections are probably just 10% of the total, and trends in that small sample may or may not be indicative of what’s really happening.

    (There’s some dispute over the mean infection-to-death time period, which is probably 2-3 weeks, with my guess being closer to the 3 week end.)

    The same is even more true of NY, since there the official total of infections is only 130K, but the official total of deaths is 4800. A 1% death rate implies 480K infections 2-3 weeks ago, and I’d think over 1M today. So once again, the official trends are a small, possibly unrepresentative sample.

    Up until now, I’ve believed that the trends in deaths were a pretty reliable indicator, but apparently the ones in NY are starting to run into the same undercount problems as had been the case in Lombardy, and for much the same reasons. For example, here’s a Tweet from Mark Levine, Chair of the NYC Health Committee, saying there are already an extra 200 deaths/day in NYC that aren’t being counted:

    So it’s quite possible that the true daily figures for NYS may already be close to 1000/day, but just undercounted.

    The “fog of war” is just pretty confusing.

    On the positive side, the numbers in CA are so low, there’s little chance that large numbers of extra victims are being ignored in the confusion. And that UnivWash website has now lowered their *total* CA estimate to just 1,700, down from 5,000 a couple of days ago, which was very close to what I’d been predicting.

    • Replies: @Anonymous
    I read that this Levine fellow is recommending the excavation of what can only be termed 'plague pits' , that is massive common graves, in NYC public parks.

    London and its environs are liberally sprinkled with concealed plague pits' dating from 1665.
    Periodically and sporadically they are unearthed in construction and tunnelling projects, with the rather unsavory appearance of crushed human bone suddenly appearing in tunnel machinery spoil.
    , @utu
    What about Chinese number? How much are they underreported? Factor of 10, 100, 1000?
    , @Ron Unz
    With regard to my point about additional "hidden" deaths, here's a graph someone put together of the figures from hard-hit areas of Spain and Northern Italy:

    https://www.moonofalabama.org/images10/excessdeath2.jpg

    You can see the usual death-rate, the official Coronavirus deaths, and a very large "excess" number, because things are too hectic to bother testing every dead body.

    It would be very interesting if someone put together something similar for NY and NYC in the next week or two. I think everyone can agree that deaths are an objective metric, while the particular official classification of deaths is much less precise.
    , @Stan d Mute
    For a guy who wrote & published American Pravda, you appear incredibly confident that you are being fed truth by government & media about this coronavirus.
  97. anonymous[123] • Disclaimer says:
    @Corvinus
    "Turning a Corner?"

    Maybe. Maybe not.

    https://www.nbcchicago.com/news/national-international/this-is-how-well-know-weve-turned-a-corner-on-covd-19-in-new-york-experts-say/2247698/

    Well, we’ve certainly turned a corner on the Trump-Russia collusion hoax, eh Corvy? Unless you have a bad case of TDS, there are no maybes there!

    • Replies: @Corvinus
    "Well, we’ve certainly turned a corner on the Trump-Russia collusion hoax, eh Corvy? Unless you have a bad case of TDS, there are no maybes there!"

    It wasn't a hoax in the least. There are multiple investigations ongoing. The Covid-19 crisis has been the focal point.
  98. Boris Johnson has been admitted to an ICU. Let’s pray he makes it.

    • Replies: @Anon
    If the Brits are smart, they'd give him a blood donation from someone who has recovered from the virus and who has the antibodies to Covid-19. They're not out of solutions if they use their brain.
    , @Anonymous
    I'll hold my prayers on this one. This guy was the leader of a nation and proponent of the ridiculous idea of herd immunity - the idea that by avoiding the draconian shut down measures employed in other countries, a significant portion of UK population (i.e. young, no "cormorbidities") would acquire immunity that would protect the population in future cycles of the virus. Under such a plan, the young and healthy would continue to live their lives as usual, while the elderly and those with cormorbidities would have to self isolate themselves and pray for the best. The problem with this plan is that we dont really understand what the cormorbidities truly are. For example, I wonder in some instances if its isn'told age itself that makes somebody more likely to succumb to this disease but some set of physiological or genetic changes that generally happen to us as we age. Unfortunately, these changes may also occur in younger populations for a variety of reasons (genetic predispositions amongst racial groups, genetic disorders, injury (smoking), etc)

    As Unz has stated in these pages, the good thing about judging decision making in this crisis is that you only need to wait a week to determine who is right.

    God help us.
  99. UK PM BJ in ICU

    Hope he recovers.

    • Replies: @Anon
    Part of this is Johnson's fault. He drinks like Churchill, and you can't be accumulating that kind liver and pancreatic damage (alcohol has too much sugar in it) and get Covid-19. Covid targets ANY damaged organ. Organs that are damaged have more ACE 2 receptors because your body is producing more ACE 2 enzyme while trying to heal them up.

    If you're a drinker, it's time to quit.
  100. Steve didn’t take his own advice about super forecasters, and using lots of different models and information sources all at the same time. this, after talking about it for years.

    just as with finance, lots of the medical models are GIGO. but hundreds of people are out there, thinking about and working on this stuff, so find the couple guys who seem to predict most accurately, and follow them. long term the many GIGO models should mostly be dumped and the more couple accurate ones adopted as standard.

    just like anything else. it seems like the country walked into this like guys walking into UFC in 1993, not sure what would work in a real fist fight. then after a few years, realizing all the karate training for decades was useless and the wrestling guys were right the entire time.

    • Replies: @Twinkie

    then after a few years, realizing all the karate training for decades was useless and the wrestling guys were right the entire time.
     
    https://youtu.be/CQr950AhbRE

    https://youtu.be/vZk7dADtmZ0
  101. @Buzz Mohawk
    The question is, will this decline in acceleration be mistakenly attributed to our draconian, finance-destroying measures? So far, there is no evidence that our refusal to push the (old, diabetic) fat man in front of the trolly has actually yielded this result.

    What we have here, besides a failure to communicate, is an inability and refusal to separate out variables. The success of plunging ourselves into a great depression over this is un-falsifiable.

    Ignore anybody in the near future who says anything is the result of what we have done. Study the curves for the wide variety of countries who have handled this thing differently. You cannot prove that the price (which our people will pay for a generation) was worth it, any more than I can prove it was not.

    The question is, will this decline in acceleration be mistakenly attributed to our draconian, finance-destroying measures?

    Undoubtedly. And it will then be argued that we need to keep to keep many of the outrageous restrictions in place because it’s now been proven that they work. So instead of the lockdowns ending we’ll go from full lockdowns to semi-permanent or even permanent partial lockdowns.

  102. If these models all start at some point in late Feb, early March, how good are they?? WuFlu has most likely been here since November.

  103. @AnotherDad

    RNA tests (including Abbott’s PoC test) ...
     
    I can usually tell PoC without any fancy lab test. Viruses is where i need help.
  104. @jimmyriddle
    Boris Johnson has been admitted to an ICU. Let's pray he makes it.

    If the Brits are smart, they’d give him a blood donation from someone who has recovered from the virus and who has the antibodies to Covid-19. They’re not out of solutions if they use their brain.

  105. @Anonymous
    IT'S HAPPENING. FINALLY.

    Trump is marshalling forces in The Great Chloroquine War!

    Second consecutive day Trump hit the HYDROXYCHLOROQUINE+AZITHROMYCIN message at White House. Hit it very hard in Saturday's marathon presser. He pounded it at least three seperate times then. Big push to a new level Sunday.

    Trump said massive amounts HCQ are going out from 29 million dose national stockpile.

    The Navy Joint Chief then described their hydroxychloroquine operation: Millions of doses going out in a MASSIVE SURGE DIRECTLY TO PHARMACIES!

    This is a giant *middle finger* to sandbaggers like Gov Cuomo...

    Trump is using the military to go around any blockade by Orange Man Bad politicians pharmacists doctors hospital administrators etc. They will have NO EXCUSES after he floods each hot zone with the Didier Raoult protocol medicines.

    Any other POTUS would cave but Trump is not backing down to Big Pharma Bill Gates Fauci etc.

    MDs Raoult Smith Zelenko just keep building the data. ~2500 patients between them and now another guy out in L.A.

    Sanjay Gupta's heart is broken.

    WINNING.

  106. @Hippopotamusdrome
    OT
    Orangeman ban


    Twelfth of July parades cancelled due to outbreak

    The Orange Lodge of Ireland has confirmed the traditional parades will not go ahead this summer.

     

    A victory for the IRA?

    • Replies: @YetAnotherAnon
    That depends on whether the traditional Easter Republican parades go ahead. Hope they don't.
  107. Anonymous[404] • Disclaimer says:
    @Ron Unz
    I'm not sure how much weight can be put in these trends of official infections because it's pretty clear they're a small fraction of the true total.

    For example, consider Italy. Officially, there are about 132K total infected cases, and the trend lines are based on those.

    But there are 13K officially confirmed deaths, and it's been very widely estimated, including by the WSJ, that the true figure is 3-5x larger because they don't bother to test the dead. So we're probably talking about 50-60K deaths. Even with a high death rate of 5%, that suggests at least a million infections 2-3 weeks ago, so probably substantially larger now, even with the lockdown. Thus, officially reported infections are probably just 10% of the total, and trends in that small sample may or may not be indicative of what's really happening.

    (There's some dispute over the mean infection-to-death time period, which is probably 2-3 weeks, with my guess being closer to the 3 week end.)

    The same is even more true of NY, since there the official total of infections is only 130K, but the official total of deaths is 4800. A 1% death rate implies 480K infections 2-3 weeks ago, and I'd think over 1M today. So once again, the official trends are a small, possibly unrepresentative sample.

    Up until now, I've believed that the trends in deaths were a pretty reliable indicator, but apparently the ones in NY are starting to run into the same undercount problems as had been the case in Lombardy, and for much the same reasons. For example, here's a Tweet from Mark Levine, Chair of the NYC Health Committee, saying there are already an extra 200 deaths/day in NYC that aren't being counted:

    https://twitter.com/MarkLevineNYC/status/1247155576221716480

    So it's quite possible that the true daily figures for NYS may already be close to 1000/day, but just undercounted.

    The "fog of war" is just pretty confusing.

    On the positive side, the numbers in CA are so low, there's little chance that large numbers of extra victims are being ignored in the confusion. And that UnivWash website has now lowered their *total* CA estimate to just 1,700, down from 5,000 a couple of days ago, which was very close to what I'd been predicting.

    I read that this Levine fellow is recommending the excavation of what can only be termed ‘plague pits’ , that is massive common graves, in NYC public parks.

    London and its environs are liberally sprinkled with concealed plague pits’ dating from 1665.
    Periodically and sporadically they are unearthed in construction and tunnelling projects, with the rather unsavory appearance of crushed human bone suddenly appearing in tunnel machinery spoil.

    • Replies: @AnotherDad

    I read that this Levine fellow is recommending the excavation of what can only be termed ‘plague pits’ , that is massive common graves, in NYC public parks.
     
    LOL. Geez some guys just love being drama queens. I don't know who this Levine guy is but if he's serious, he should just chop his balls off and transition.
  108. Uh oh. Boris Johnson is in intensive care.

    AS

  109. Turning a Corner?

    Let’s hope so. A more pessimistic view of Italy is that they’ve been under lockdown for weeks, have a population as worried and as cautious and informed as they’re ever likely to be, and they’re still somehow getting thousands of new infections per day. That may not bode well.

  110. @Smithsonian_2
    Looking at the Logarithmic charts in http://gisanddata.maps.arcgis.com/apps/opsdashboard/index.html#/bda7594740fd40299423467b48e9ecf6

    it does seem that the rate of increase across the world is starting to slow, which is what you would hope for given the current restrictions that billions of people are living under. Of course, this is just the first battle in a long war...

    Meanwhile, in the DM:
    https://www.dailymail.co.uk/news/article-8191443/NHS-data-suggests-people-black-minority-backgrounds-vulnerable-coronavirus.html


    Coronavirus patients from black and ethnic minority backgrounds may be at higher risk of suffering deadly complications of the disease, an NHS report suggests.

    Despite making up just 13 per cent of the UK population, a third of patients who fall critically ill with COVID-19 are from black, Asian or minority ethnic (BME) groups.
     
    Make of that what you will.

    ..and the same thing is seen in the USA.

    April 6 (Reuters) – Early data from U.S. states shows African Americans are more likely to die from COVID-19, highlighting longstanding disparities in health and inequalities in access to medical care, experts said.

    In Illinois, black people make up about 30% of the state’s cases and about 40% of its coronavirus-related deaths, according to statistics provided by the state’s public health agency. However, African Americans make up just 14.6% of the state’s population.

    In Michigan, black people account for 40% of the state’s reported deaths, according to data released by the state, but its population is only 14% African American.

    https://news.trust.org/item/20200406160842-9x3r4

  111. Anonymous[134] • Disclaimer says:

    What a damn hoax:

    They are enforcing psychotic social distancing rules in NYC and simultaneously packing the filthy subways with people chin to chin shoulder to shoulder…

    As Tom Brady like to say:

    “Figure it out.”

    (Old news: they closed many lines forcing crowding on the lines remaining open)

    • Replies: @vhrm
    i don't think it's a hoax, but


    (Old news: they closed many lines forcing crowding on the lines remaining open)
     
    San Francisco is also doing this. In the same news conference they announce that they've cut whole bus lines and service on others because ridership is down 90+%...
    AND they complain that some people are getting on crowded buses, and "please think of the health of the drivers".

    I didn't catch the whole thing in detail, but there didn't appear to be an admission that those two things are perhaps related.
  112. @prime noticer
    Steve didn't take his own advice about super forecasters, and using lots of different models and information sources all at the same time. this, after talking about it for years.

    just as with finance, lots of the medical models are GIGO. but hundreds of people are out there, thinking about and working on this stuff, so find the couple guys who seem to predict most accurately, and follow them. long term the many GIGO models should mostly be dumped and the more couple accurate ones adopted as standard.

    just like anything else. it seems like the country walked into this like guys walking into UFC in 1993, not sure what would work in a real fist fight. then after a few years, realizing all the karate training for decades was useless and the wrestling guys were right the entire time.

    then after a few years, realizing all the karate training for decades was useless and the wrestling guys were right the entire time.

    • Replies: @Polynikes
    Ha...I was thinking of the same two. I agreed with @prime noticer's overall point though, so I wasn't going to interject (that and wrestling probably is the dominant background these days, but lots of guys incorporate karate into their stand-up). A better analogy would've been kung fu...you know, being Chinese and all.
  113. Anonymous[334] • Disclaimer says:

    It looks like the worm is beginning to turn. Took my daily look at Reuters frontpage/feed and you are now seeing articles unimaginable not so long ago.

    Denmark to ease restrictions next week after coronavirus lockdown
    Frederiksen said last week she would lay out a plan for gradually lifting the lockdown after Easter, if the numbers of coronavirus cases and deaths remain stable.
    . . . Denmark is the second country in Europe to provide dates and detail on a gradual reopening of its coronavirus lockdown after Austria earlier on Monday said it was preparing for a “resurrection” the day after Easter by reopening some shops in an initial loosening of its restrictions.

    Coronavirus epidemic ‘under control’ in Norway: health minister
    The government will decide on Wednesday whether to extend the restrictions beyond mid-April. It was not immediately clear which measures could be lifted, nor when they would be.

    Czechs to start easing restrictions as coronavirus infections slow
    Industry Minister Karel Havlicek said that as of Thursday, the government would allow reopening of shops selling hobby goods and building materials, and also relax rules on open-air sports activities where people do not congregate, such as running and cycling. More shops may be opened after the Easter weekend.

    Coronavirus pandemic is historical test for EU, Merkel says
    Merkel said on Monday that restrictions on free movement and business closures, in effect in Germany since March 22, would remain in place until at least April 19 and that it was too early to talk about relaxing the lockdown.
    . . . A government document seen by Reuters on Monday maps out a phased return to normal life after the lockdown ends, with measures that would include mandatory mask-wearing in public, limits on gatherings and the rapid tracing of infection chains.

    Governor Cuomo sees signs of pandemic ‘flattening’ in New York
    Cases in the state increased by 7 percent in 24 hours to 130,680, Cuomo said. Hospitalizations, admissions to intensive care units and intubations – the process of inserting a breathing tube for use in mechanical ventilation – had all declined, signs of a “possible flattening of the curve.”

    European shares jump as coronavirus deaths slow, Germany up almost 6%

    Obviously the official statements are all playing coy and hedging their release date but the trend is clear… Light at the end of the tunnel.

  114. @Buzz Mohawk
    The question is, will this decline in acceleration be mistakenly attributed to our draconian, finance-destroying measures? So far, there is no evidence that our refusal to push the (old, diabetic) fat man in front of the trolly has actually yielded this result.

    What we have here, besides a failure to communicate, is an inability and refusal to separate out variables. The success of plunging ourselves into a great depression over this is un-falsifiable.

    Ignore anybody in the near future who says anything is the result of what we have done. Study the curves for the wide variety of countries who have handled this thing differently. You cannot prove that the price (which our people will pay for a generation) was worth it, any more than I can prove it was not.

    The question is, will this decline in acceleration be mistakenly attributed to our draconian, finance-destroying measures? So far, there is no evidence that our refusal to push the (old, diabetic) fat man in front of the trolly has actually yielded this result.

    What we have here, besides a failure to communicate, is an inability and refusal to separate out variables. The success of plunging ourselves into a great depression over this is un-falsifiable.

    a) It’s going to be interesting. Hopefully some epidemiologists and economists have the intellectual and academic honesty to do honest and insightful after action studies.

    But the incentives for them and for politicians is to take a victory lap.

    Since the government just created many trillions of dollars, so far you can’t even have shareholders making noise because devaluation of the currency and how it steals the money of savers isn’t something that we really argue about nowadays. People (in the media) seem to LIKE million dollar houses that should be $250k.

    b) In runaway trolley terms where action vs inaction is key, we DID throw a switch to save the five people, and redirected the trolley into the city’s commercial sector. It’s the middle of the night so only a couple of security guards we injured and nobody does. But it caused billions of dollars of damage to the stores and businesses, and rolled into the airport and destroyed it, and finally ran into a cruise ship docked in the harbor and sank it. A business owner would later commit suicide.

    And of the five people, 1 got hit by a piece of the trolley anyway and died, and another one died of unrelated causes before the trolley even stopped. The other three are thankful to be alive but wondering if their kids still have jobs.

    • Agree: JosephB
  115. @UK

    Even deaths have their problems, as they are only deaths in hospital, so the 13 or 14 deaths in a single Scottish care home don’t go on UK totals.
     
    What gave you that (certainly false) impression?

    “What gave you that (certainly false) impression?”

    This.

    https://www.gov.uk/guidance/coronavirus-covid-19-information-for-the-public

    The figures on deaths relate in almost all cases to patients who have died in hospital and who have tested positive for COVID-19. Slight differences in reporting in devolved administrations may mean that they include a small number of deaths outside hospital. The figures are compiled from validated data provided by NHS England and Improvement, Health Protection Scotland, Public Health Wales and the Public Health Agency (Northern Ireland).

    These figures do not include deaths outside hospital, such as those in care homes, except as indicated above.

    Are you saying the Scots are reporting ALL deaths? Have you a link for that info?.

    • Replies: @UK
    Fair.
  116. @Ron Unz
    I'm not sure how much weight can be put in these trends of official infections because it's pretty clear they're a small fraction of the true total.

    For example, consider Italy. Officially, there are about 132K total infected cases, and the trend lines are based on those.

    But there are 13K officially confirmed deaths, and it's been very widely estimated, including by the WSJ, that the true figure is 3-5x larger because they don't bother to test the dead. So we're probably talking about 50-60K deaths. Even with a high death rate of 5%, that suggests at least a million infections 2-3 weeks ago, so probably substantially larger now, even with the lockdown. Thus, officially reported infections are probably just 10% of the total, and trends in that small sample may or may not be indicative of what's really happening.

    (There's some dispute over the mean infection-to-death time period, which is probably 2-3 weeks, with my guess being closer to the 3 week end.)

    The same is even more true of NY, since there the official total of infections is only 130K, but the official total of deaths is 4800. A 1% death rate implies 480K infections 2-3 weeks ago, and I'd think over 1M today. So once again, the official trends are a small, possibly unrepresentative sample.

    Up until now, I've believed that the trends in deaths were a pretty reliable indicator, but apparently the ones in NY are starting to run into the same undercount problems as had been the case in Lombardy, and for much the same reasons. For example, here's a Tweet from Mark Levine, Chair of the NYC Health Committee, saying there are already an extra 200 deaths/day in NYC that aren't being counted:

    https://twitter.com/MarkLevineNYC/status/1247155576221716480

    So it's quite possible that the true daily figures for NYS may already be close to 1000/day, but just undercounted.

    The "fog of war" is just pretty confusing.

    On the positive side, the numbers in CA are so low, there's little chance that large numbers of extra victims are being ignored in the confusion. And that UnivWash website has now lowered their *total* CA estimate to just 1,700, down from 5,000 a couple of days ago, which was very close to what I'd been predicting.

    What about Chinese number? How much are they underreported? Factor of 10, 100, 1000?

    • Replies: @Ron Unz

    What about Chinese number? How much are they underreported? Factor of 10, 100, 1000?
     
    I haven't investigated the issue, but I really tend to doubt that the Chinese did anything much different from what the Italians or the New Yorkers are doing. So I'd guess any under-count would have been for the same reasons and probably roughly within the same range.

    I'd pretty much agree with this analysis in MoA:

    https://www.moonofalabama.org/2020/04/us-will-cover-up-its-own-coronavirus-death-toll.html#more

    In fact, I'd totally forgotten the US "cover-up" of the Puerto Rico hurricane deaths, which the The Economist mentions:

    [W]hen Hurricane Maria struck Puerto Rico in 2017, America recorded only 64 deaths. A study later found that the surge in total deaths was close to 3,000. Many occurred in hospitals that lost power.
     
  117. @anonymous
    Remember the Fed can print money, and use it to buy into ETF futures. They can make the Nasdaq pop every morning, if they want, when they want. I'm thinking the futures pop is due to the fed buying in to begin setting a backfire, and shaking out short-term shooters, so though stocks may remain in a lower range, it will be a bit more stable, while we see what happens next. A 10 point morning opening of Apple, while holding it's gains throughout the day, teaches a lesson to shorters who were getting too cocky. When you wake up in the morning, and your short position is 10 points against you, and holds up for the day, and the next, you will be less confident and aggressive going forward, especially with overnight shorts.

    For hedge fund traders with a billion or more buying power, supping coffee at their computer desk in their Long Island mansion in their underwear, there's a dramatically different mindset between "attacking a weak market," and "saving my ass." The Fed would like those there guys to retain the latter mindset, going forward. Hedge funders are the hood rats of the stock market. They create problems in markets like this, and shorters need to be demoralized. The Fed always wins them over, eventually. This may be the start of that process.

    If the virus gets a "second wind," and more bodies start piling up, days like today this will only be... spectacle. I guess the next 10 days are supposed to tell. I was guessing Apple would bottom at 200. I felt on the last downturn, the market was awestruck, but not terrified. Good market bottoms are born in an atmosphere of financial horror. I wasn't feeling it. We'll see...

    Or this is just the B wave up of an ABC down for the 4th wave of a Bull Market?

  118. Anonymous[134] • Disclaimer says:
    @jimmyriddle
    Boris Johnson has been admitted to an ICU. Let's pray he makes it.

    I’ll hold my prayers on this one. This guy was the leader of a nation and proponent of the ridiculous idea of herd immunity – the idea that by avoiding the draconian shut down measures employed in other countries, a significant portion of UK population (i.e. young, no “cormorbidities”) would acquire immunity that would protect the population in future cycles of the virus. Under such a plan, the young and healthy would continue to live their lives as usual, while the elderly and those with cormorbidities would have to self isolate themselves and pray for the best. The problem with this plan is that we dont really understand what the cormorbidities truly are. For example, I wonder in some instances if its isn’told age itself that makes somebody more likely to succumb to this disease but some set of physiological or genetic changes that generally happen to us as we age. Unfortunately, these changes may also occur in younger populations for a variety of reasons (genetic predispositions amongst racial groups, genetic disorders, injury (smoking), etc)

    As Unz has stated in these pages, the good thing about judging decision making in this crisis is that you only need to wait a week to determine who is right.

    God help us.

  119. @The Germ Theory of Disease
    No matter how this plays out in the next two weeks, the long-term policy solutions to the epidemic are quite clear:

    1) massively increased immigration
    2) DACA amnesty and elimination of ICE
    3) reparations for both black AND brown people; apparently, at least according to Sandy Cortez, brown people were also slaves and so also need reparations.

    It is, it is, a glorious thang, to be a Pirate Kang!

    It’s nice how the same long-term policy solutions work for everything.

  120. @Testing12
    Of course it's slowing. And this is despite half the country not giving a fuck about social distancing or masks. Expect a lot of "I told you so's" as we turn the corner AND it increasingly comes to light that many recorded "COVID deaths" actually weren't. The main question in my mind is why so many otherwise skeptical individuals became so emotionally committed to the worst of the doom-and-gloom possible scenarios. I have my theories but let's see how this plays out.

    “The main question in my mind is why so many otherwise skeptical individuals became so emotionally committed to the worst of the doom-and-gloom possible scenarios.”

    Personal fears and phobias. Steve is terrified because chemotherapy wrecked his immune system. Though he is early GenX, Lion of the Blog has always been obsessed with having medical insurance, so I assume his health sucks as well.

    If you examine the data and ignore the bogus models, it is clear that kung flu is an unusually benign virus in that it claims mostly oldsters in poor health. Once more, with feeling:

    If your lungs are diseased,
    Self-quarantine please;
    If your health is ok,
    Go on about your day!

    • Thanks: Inquiring Mind
    • Troll: Corvinus
  121. Anon[351] • Disclaimer says:
    @Paleo Liberal
    UK PM BJ in ICU

    Hope he recovers.

    Part of this is Johnson’s fault. He drinks like Churchill, and you can’t be accumulating that kind liver and pancreatic damage (alcohol has too much sugar in it) and get Covid-19. Covid targets ANY damaged organ. Organs that are damaged have more ACE 2 receptors because your body is producing more ACE 2 enzyme while trying to heal them up.

    If you’re a drinker, it’s time to quit.

  122. @res
    This (second link) looks like a worthwhile site from the Worldometers April 5th update for the US.
    https://www.worldometers.info/coronavirus/country/us/

    State-by-state forecast shows projected number of deaths in each state and nationwide, measuring the impact on health systems: hospital beds, ICU bed shortages, and ventilators needed. COVID-19 forecasting model updated in real-time created by Dr. Christopher Murray and researchers in Washington state and used by the US Government. [view here]
     
    https://covid19.healthdata.org/projections

    They base their model on full social distancing through May 2020 and estimate US peak resource use on 4/15, peak daily deaths (3,130) on 4/16, and total deaths through August 4th as 81,766.

    On the peak date they show overcapacity estimates of
    All beds needed - 140,823 beds
    Bed shortage - 36,654 beds
    ICU beds needed - 29,210 beds
    ICU bed shortage - 16,323 beds
    So they are estimating peak ICU capacity at about 225% which is significantly worse than the 150% maximum I was using.

    They allow downloading the estimates (link at bottom) and link to (much!) additional information at
    http://www.healthdata.org/covid/updates

    Note that their model update 1 is following a methodology similar to what I have been advocating.


    we now estimate the time from implementation of social distancing policies to the peak of daily deaths using all eight locations where the number of daily deaths appears to be peaking or to have peaked
     
    I don't see them explicitly giving their estimate, but it looks more like Ron's three weeks (based on the graphs they show for their data) than my 16-17 day estimate. I am beginning to suspect Louisiana may be an outlier because of weather causing it to respond relatively well.

    This model looks rather impressive to me, but I would appreciate other opinions.

    Their page also includes models for individual states. Well worth a look! I would suggest checking out CA, NY, and LA. Another good feature of those pages is they summarize the timing of social isolation measures for each state.

    Great site! Kudos to whoever put the model and site together!

    P.S. One good thing about models like this is they should allow us to do after the fact looks at what might have happened without the shutdowns. Once we have all the data for what really happened I suspect we will be able to do decent analysis of hypothetical scenarios (e.g. looking at earlier and later countermeasures).

    “One good thing about models like this is they should allow us to do after the fact looks at what might have happened without the shutdowns. Once we have all the data for what really happened I suspect we will be able to do decent analysis of hypothetical scenarios”

    this is the only important discussion with regard to the medical situation and risk evaluation. although we have lots of data from previous epidemics, so this isn’t the first time risk forecasting has been done.

    Ron and Anatoly are correct, in the abstract, that total lockdown reduces the number of citizens who get killed by the virus. lockdown also reduces the number of car crash deaths, flu deaths, murders, and so forth. so right off the bat you have a confounding variable.

    second, there are intermediate positions between doing nothing differently at all, versus martial law. you would want to model intermediate versions of pathogen of mitigation. what if we just quarantined people over 60. how would that go.

    a lot of the discussion focuses on virulence of the pathogen, but presently we don’t even have an agreed upon standard for counting virus deaths. and the number of deaths is the main metric to focus on. extrapolating from number of confirmed cases to number of actual cases is somewhat like chasing a mirage. you’ll never know number of actual cases.

  123. @Alfa158
    I have to compliment the would be humorist who calls himself Tiny Duck for not posting any of his satirical comments on the Covid articles. Apparently he realizes that this is a, literally, deadly serious issue with people dying and economies wrecked, and so out of respect he is refraining from the lame parodies of brain dead Leftists and POC he usually tries to entertain us with.

    He doesn’t want to be labelled a quack.

  124. @Realist

    Stock futures are up on optimism that the pandemic’s spread is slowing.
     
    Yes, the stock market is powered by avarice. Only an idiot would think that the economic problems are near an end. Covid-19 was merely the pin that pricked the extreme stock market bubble. One of the biggest problems is stock evaluations, which are extreme due to stock buybacks with borrowed fiat money.

    One of the biggest problems is stock evaluations, which are extreme due to stock buybacks with borrowed fiat money.

    You mean valuations, not evaluations. Equity multiples are high because interest rates are so low.

    • Replies: @Realist

    You mean valuations, not evaluations. Equity multiples are high because interest rates are so low.
     
    Yes, my mistake...valuations. Thanks.
  125. @Anon7
    So does anybody remember the last time that the world blew its economies up, and only one country had functional factories and industrial base? WWII and the United States, right. And how did that work out for us?

    So after we've all destroyed our economies, is there an industrialized country still functional? So who gets to have a 1950's style golden age in which everything they make, they sell?

    In WW 2, we didn’t just blow up economies. You might say we nuked them.

    • Replies: @Louis Renault
    We didn't blow up ourselves, other than that Democrat FDR incarcerating Americans of Japanese descent. Democrats miss that, don't they.
  126. In addition to deaths, new cases and cumulative cases, would not number recovering be good to know? that is the number of patients well enough to leave the hospital, tested negative. the media makes it sound like catching this virus is an automatic death sentence …

    • Replies: @JerseyJeffersonian
    To the French experimenter with Hydroxychloroquine/Azitromycin/(added) Zinc Sulfate, Didier Raoult and his team, since they were principally interested in healing (he follows the Hippocratic Oath first & foremost), it was his primary interest to get patients healed, and an integral part of that was getting them past virus-shedding, because this made it possible to rotate them quickly out of hospital, freeing up space for other, critically-ill patients. He has been reporting his statistics on this point, and rightly so.

    But since he probably rubbed the fur of the folks like Fauci & co. the wrong way (particularly after Trump expressed serious interest in this therapeutic regimen), one wonders if they are now studiously ignoring this extraordinarily useful information. Fauci and ilk seem likely to be doing this, because their POV is that the ONLY thing that will work is shutting down everything as that is the ONLY way to bend the curve.

    And yes, this is linked at the root to the media's relentless push to terrify, rather than to inform. The Impeachment Agenda must be served, and that is that.

    This is the state of play.
  127. @Hibernian
    A victory for the IRA?

    That depends on whether the traditional Easter Republican parades go ahead. Hope they don’t.

  128. @anonymous
    Well, we've certainly turned a corner on the Trump-Russia collusion hoax, eh Corvy? Unless you have a bad case of TDS, there are no maybes there!

    “Well, we’ve certainly turned a corner on the Trump-Russia collusion hoax, eh Corvy? Unless you have a bad case of TDS, there are no maybes there!”

    It wasn’t a hoax in the least. There are multiple investigations ongoing. The Covid-19 crisis has been the focal point.

  129. I think Trump was more correct with his Easter Sunday thoughts (in that things should be clearing out by mid-April) than Emperor Fauci who acts like we will be locked down for years because of this. I expect the rates to begin to crater soon. The ‘deadliest week ever’ will fizzle out. The weather is getting warmer in NYC – all of March was stuck in the sub-50 degree zone where flu flourishes. Also, most New Yorkers have been more or less trapped in their homes for over 2 weeks now, which is the maximum incubation period (and many of us were already practicing some form of social distancing before Daddy Cuomo locked everything down). Even taking into account the idea that there were “too many” people in the park, or too many people played pickup basketball, or Orthodox Jews continued to gather because they’re better than us, that’s still not that many people.

    This entire thing seems, from my point of view, to be a social media driven hysteria from a populace that can no longer handle or control what it has built. Even if this thing is deadlier than the flu, it isn’t by such an amount that justifies destroying the economy and peoples’ livelihoods for years if not decades. Not to mention turning whatever freedoms we had left over to power-hungry politicians.

    • Agree: Jack Armstrong, AnonAnon
    • Troll: Corvinus
    • Replies: @Jack Armstrong
    This needs bolding …

    This entire thing seems, from my point of view, to be a social media driven hysteria from a populace that can no longer handle or control what it has built. Even if this thing is deadlier than the flu, it isn’t by such an amount that justifies destroying the economy and peoples’ livelihoods for years if not decades.
     
    Fauci’s Folly.
  130. anon[201] • Disclaimer says:
    @Paleo Liberal
    Good idea.

    There is a monkey wrench. Our porous borders.

    Mexican skiers and Gringo spring breakers already brought Coronavirus to Mexico. AMLO seems to think mystical mumbo jumbo will protect Mexicans.

    There are already plenty of Mexicans fleeing rhe country any way they can. A few months ago less than 30% of the people caught at the border were Mexicans. Now it’s over 60%. That could be fewer Central Americans crossing or more Mexicans. Probably a little of both.

    A few months ago less than 30% of the people caught at the border were Mexicans. Now it’s over 60%.

    Citation required.

    In reality, very few people are attempting to cross the southern border now. Mexico is nominally on some sort of quarantine and the Central Americans may be afraid of catching COVID-19 in the US. What they don’t know is Corona-chan is already visiting them.

    Anyway. Apprehensions are way, way down.

    https://www.bizpacreview.com/2020/04/05/illegal-border-crossing-reportedly-next-to-nothing-less-than-150-apprehensions-for-almost-a-week-905163

    By the way, the price of meth, fentanyl, heroin, etc. are going way up because chemical precursors from China are in short supply. That also reduces the number of mules needed in the deserts.

  131. @Testing12
    Of course it's slowing. And this is despite half the country not giving a fuck about social distancing or masks. Expect a lot of "I told you so's" as we turn the corner AND it increasingly comes to light that many recorded "COVID deaths" actually weren't. The main question in my mind is why so many otherwise skeptical individuals became so emotionally committed to the worst of the doom-and-gloom possible scenarios. I have my theories but let's see how this plays out.

    Agree, but even under worst-case scenarios is the lockdown appropriate? 60,000 dead is a bad flu season. Over 36,000 per year die from traffic accidents but that’s acceptable because of the trade off provided by the utility of autos. 580,000 die prematurely due to tobacco, but that’s acceptable because of the trade off provided by individual freedom. We could also save lives by banning SUVs or lowering the speed limit. Should we?

    For the sake of argument, let’s assume marijuana is worse than tobacco per puff. How is it logically consistent that the same people that support the legalization of marijuana (more dangerous than smoking) support a total lockdown of the economy and loss of liberty. A policy that – as it looks now – will prevent less premature deaths than banning smoking?!

    This isn’t about best versus worst-case scenarios. This is about the worst public policy in recent memory after mass third-world immigration. Public policy should involve the weighing of costs and benefits. Was that done here? No, this is just flat out hysteria.

    Again, let everyone take responsibility for themselves. Pass legislation to protect the jobs of older and vulnerable people, etc. Otherwise let’r rip. Tell people to take necessary precautions and if they don’t medical care will be rationed by age. You smoke, you assume the risk. You’re an old person with diabetes that wants to attend a baseball game, you assume the risk.

    I’m surprised more on here haven’t expressed this sentiment. Generally people on the right do better with trolly dilemmas while those on the far left get hysterical “won’t someone please think of the children!”

    Even if this kills over one million, a shutdown (which will only save a fraction of those lives at best) is not worth the costs related to economics/utility and individual freedom. I’m not ashamed to be an American; I’m ashamed to be a human. I’m rooting for coronavirus. Our stupid species deserves it.

    (Also, how in the world is it that cucked Sweden the only rational Western country right now?)

    • Replies: @Hail

    This isn’t about best versus worst-case scenarios. This is about the worst public policy in recent memory after mass third-world immigration. Public policy should involve the weighing of costs and benefits. Was that done here? No, this is just flat out hysteria.
     
    This is a great summary of the problem.

    There have been those comparing it to a witchcraft panic. The difference is that in the age of witchcraft panics, the state was weak and could not easily just decree a halt to economic activity because a few court-advisers got in on the witchcraft craze du jour.
  132. @Polynikes
    Are they still relying on the UW model? Alex Berenson has been great at tearing it apart.

    They say the superforecasters can predict things a year out at the same rate other experts predict things 80 days out. The UW model consistently falls apart after every few days. The latest update on April 4th was already off by 20-30%. Yes, that’s right folks. It couldn’t even look at NYC hospital data for today and come reasonably close for the following day’s prediction, even though admission rates had been stabilizing! This model is bible for the great Dr. Fauci.

    Here’s a good question: what do we do with our “experts” when this is all over? Do the experts who predicted 2.5 million deaths at least get publicly shamed?

    I reccomend finding the latest ‘advice’ from Obama CDC director Thomas Frieden who was involved in the Ebola response:
    “Frieden was prominently involved in the US and global response to the West African outbreak of Ebola. His visits to West Africa beginning in August 2014 and a September 2014 CDC analysis projecting that the Ebola epidemic could increase exponentially to infect more than 1 million people within four months ….

    Actual resulsts, 28,652 (that’s suspected and confirmed) and 11,325 dead. How many more zero’s ’til you get to a million? Guess else is giving Trump advice.
    https://www.cdc.gov/vhf/ebola/history/2014-2016-outbreak/index.html

  133. @Thirdtwin
    And while Dr. Deep State studies, The State Dept. Deep State keeps flying Chinese Plague Lice in by the thousands:

    “Nearly 40,000 people have landed in the United States from China on almost 280 flights since President Donald Trump’s February 2 travel ban on mainland China, a collection of travel data reveals.”

    https://www.breitbart.com/politics/2020/04/05/coronavirus-travel-ban-trump-flights-china/

    It’s almost like the Peking Pox itself is gasping for a ventilator.

    On a bright note Trump has cured cancer, or did you hear of someone dying of it since January?

  134. @Redneck farmer
    We probably are starting to turn the corner on this round. I wouldn't be surprised if we get reports of the disease resurfacing in November, though.

    October no surprise, except for cancelling the election or enacting ballot harvesting laws in swing states.

  135. Anon[351] • Disclaimer says:

    They did a study that proved blacks are more likely to die from Covid-19.

    https://news.trust.org/item/20200406160842-9x3r4

    “In Illinois, black people make up about 30% of the state’s cases and about 40% of its coronavirus-related deaths, according to statistics provided by the state’s public health agency. However, African Americans make up just 14.6% of the state’s population.”

    “In Michigan, black people account for 40% of the state’s reported deaths, according to data released by the state, but its population is only 14% African American.”

    It’s very likely 40% of all the US deaths so far are from the black population. Of course, this could be a statistical skew caused by not social distancing and living in densely-packed urban centers.

    However, since blacks have an O blood type at higher rates than US whites, and an O blood type is supposed to be associated with a lower Covid-19 infection rate and death rate, it’s very likely co-morbidities are a factor here. Having HIV or other diseases, lousy diet, alcohol, and smoking are likely factors. Blacks are 44% of all US HIV cases, and this group may have an impaired immune system already.

  136. @Anonymous
    IT'S HAPPENING. FINALLY.

    Trump is marshalling forces in The Great Chloroquine War!

    Second consecutive day Trump hit the HYDROXYCHLOROQUINE+AZITHROMYCIN message at White House. Hit it very hard in Saturday's marathon presser. He pounded it at least three seperate times then. Big push to a new level Sunday.

    Trump said massive amounts HCQ are going out from 29 million dose national stockpile.

    The Navy Joint Chief then described their hydroxychloroquine operation: Millions of doses going out in a MASSIVE SURGE DIRECTLY TO PHARMACIES!

    This is a giant *middle finger* to sandbaggers like Gov Cuomo...

    Trump is using the military to go around any blockade by Orange Man Bad politicians pharmacists doctors hospital administrators etc. They will have NO EXCUSES after he floods each hot zone with the Didier Raoult protocol medicines.

    Any other POTUS would cave but Trump is not backing down to Big Pharma Bill Gates Fauci etc.

    MDs Raoult Smith Zelenko just keep building the data. ~2500 patients between them and now another guy out in L.A.

    Sanjay Gupta's heart is broken.

    WINNING.

    Anony 698 is also Anony 217! A sock puppet, or a Russian bot, take your pick. Anony 217 reared her ugly head on the “Panama Only Letting Men…” out post.

    “Second consecutive day Trump hit the HYDROXYCHLOROQUINE+AZITHROMYCIN message at White House.”

    I would hold your horses there. Much research still needs to be done.

    https://blogs.sciencemag.org/pipeline/archives/2020/03/31/comparing-chloroquine-trials

    And this from Fox News. Doesn’t Trump trust them?

    • Troll: Federalist, Mehen
  137. Norcal’s been on soft lockdown for a long time. I’m not sure that new cases would stay down if that lockdown were to end. There have to be secondary contact tracing measures in place afterward to prevent a new wave. And masks.

  138. @The Germ Theory of Disease
    No matter how this plays out in the next two weeks, the long-term policy solutions to the epidemic are quite clear:

    1) massively increased immigration
    2) DACA amnesty and elimination of ICE
    3) reparations for both black AND brown people; apparently, at least according to Sandy Cortez, brown people were also slaves and so also need reparations.

    It is, it is, a glorious thang, to be a Pirate Kang!

    You neglected environmental reparations and environmental justice.

    I’m surprised the enviro crowd is trying to gain traction here. I’d think with massive unemployment and a moderate health crisis, selling environmentalism would be tough.

  139. @Alden
    So the sky isn’t falling? Bodies aren’t piling up in the streets, stadiums and parks?

    Too bad, many people I know have been waiting like vultures to buy real estate once the prices go down enough. They started buying stocks about March 15.

    There’s maybe three types of people who believed this was zombie apocalypse.

    – liberals who hate Trump so much they would watch and cheer the whole country burning if it cost him the election

    – Nerds with no common sense who geeked out on “muh exponential growth” charts. You may find other examples of these senseless dorks in the historical record planning for transhumanism and the tech singularity in 2020 due to some Moores law projection, or losing their shit over “Roko’s Basilisk” thought experiments.

    – elderly Boomer folk who are personally terrified of COVID due to the disproportionate personal threat it poses to themselves. Only this group is sympathetic.

  140. Boris Johnson is at Saint Thomas in the critical care area CCA wich comprises 3 HDU high dependency units and 2 ICU intensive care units.

    Media is going with ICU but Raab said CCA. And allegedly he is not ventilated wich would be HDU.

    On HDU is chances of death are 12%. In ICU it’s 60%. So both are frightening but it’s not the same story …

    The catch words to know would be ventilators and infection.

    The media could also know just by identifying the floor in wich he is treated : 810,11 for HDU and 1-6 for ICU

  141. utu says:
    @Buzz Mohawk
    The question is, will this decline in acceleration be mistakenly attributed to our draconian, finance-destroying measures? So far, there is no evidence that our refusal to push the (old, diabetic) fat man in front of the trolly has actually yielded this result.

    What we have here, besides a failure to communicate, is an inability and refusal to separate out variables. The success of plunging ourselves into a great depression over this is un-falsifiable.

    Ignore anybody in the near future who says anything is the result of what we have done. Study the curves for the wide variety of countries who have handled this thing differently. You cannot prove that the price (which our people will pay for a generation) was worth it, any more than I can prove it was not.

    “So far, there is no evidence […] has actually yielded this result.” – Really? So, you are saying that w/o the countermeasure in Italy the same number or lower would die. Lombardy with 16% population of Italy accounts for 56% of death cases. If Covid was allowed to spread to other provinces and reach the same saturation as it reached in Lombardy, Italy by now would have had over 50,000 deaths. Furthermore the collapse of the medical system in the whole country would be much more severe as the resources could not be reallocated from less affected regions to more affected regions as it is being done now which helps to reduce mortality in hot spots like Lombardy. But you are saying that this would not have happened.

    • Replies: @Buzz Mohawk

    But you are saying that this would not have happened.
     
    No. I am saying what I just said:

    "The success of plunging ourselves into a great depression over this is un-falsifiable."

    The COSTS, however, will become very apparent. We may very well have steered our full tour bus into an approaching semi truck to avoid a Chinese girl who wandered into our lane.

    This is what you will see: 100,000 American deaths by summer, mostly with pre-existing health problems. Economic depression. Job losses in the tens of millions. The possible collapse of the dollar as the world's currency.

    Perfect for China. The Sinophiles here must be creaming their pants.

    All the screaming around here by supposedly high-IQ, hard-headed HBD realists, to save mostly old, sick people --- and hardly a peep from our stable of MBAs and multimillionaires about the cost.

    Of course, I could be totally wrong, but this is a place for sharing ideas.
  142. @William Badwhite

    One of the biggest problems is stock evaluations, which are extreme due to stock buybacks with borrowed fiat money.
     
    '

    You mean valuations, not evaluations. Equity multiples are high because interest rates are so low.

    You mean valuations, not evaluations. Equity multiples are high because interest rates are so low.

    Yes, my mistake…valuations. Thanks.

  143. Speaking of good news, today Detroit is exporting 600 vibrantly diverse Covid-19 patients to Ann Arbor and UofM medical center. Before today, UM had 200 Covid patients who, based on Ann Arbor area demographics, were not quite so diverse. All us idiot crackers who’ve been social distancing can learn a few things from Detroiters’ less rigorous attempts to avoid infection.

    This is all fine and good, but what I found even more interesting is that UM is not providing PPE to workers other than front line customer facing docs & nurses. The people who clean the rooms, restock the rooms, etc, are all presumably immune to coronavirus and unable to transmit as an a symptomatic carrier.

  144. @Smithsonian_2

    What we have here, besides a failure to communicate, is an inability and refusal to separate out variables. The success of plunging ourselves into a great depression over this is un-falsifiable.
     
    We are going to have to have the mother of all public enquiries when this is over to sort out questions like this.

    We should, but we’ll probably get Impeachment 2.0!

  145. @Polynikes
    On one hand, I want to give them credit for earnestly altering their model as new data comes in.

    On the other hand, I checked their March 30th predictions and they already have cut hospital beds needed in half. Their NY numbers predicted on the 30th are beyond ridiculous. They have NY with a 58k bed shortage on April 9th. As of yesterday, NY currently has 16k TOTAL in hospital beds with the rate stabilizing (only ~500 added yesterday).

    These are on models that are a few days old. Quite frankly they're rather useless to us now--well they were then, too. We needed people that could model things appropriately 2 months out back in February. Being able to accurately predict things out 2 days doesn't leave your model much use in practical terms to anybody that matters. And these guys...again credit for to them for being flexible...are having drastic swings and misses a few days out.

    The predictive performance has been poor (and thanks to you and tc for pointing that out) especially for bed capacity, but I still think the following are worth noting.
    – The deaths data gives a nice display of the daily death rate progression using the real data to date. And the death predictions seem more reasonable than the capacity predictions.
    – Hopefully we will be able to keep updating the models to the point where they are actually usable for the first wave in late starting states and later waves everywhere.

  146. Anonymous[188] • Disclaimer says:

    Wow, Boris Johnson has worsened symptoms and is moved to ICU unit. This is really, really bad.

    This virus is just in the beggining. Expect June and July deaths to be catastrophic.

  147. Ron Unz following Mark Levine’s timeline. And the comedy goes into overdrive…

    • Replies: @Dave Pinsen
    He’s been bad on both ends of the arc.

    https://twitter.com/sartor1836/status/1247273374033874944?s=21
  148. @Ron Unz
    I'm not sure how much weight can be put in these trends of official infections because it's pretty clear they're a small fraction of the true total.

    For example, consider Italy. Officially, there are about 132K total infected cases, and the trend lines are based on those.

    But there are 13K officially confirmed deaths, and it's been very widely estimated, including by the WSJ, that the true figure is 3-5x larger because they don't bother to test the dead. So we're probably talking about 50-60K deaths. Even with a high death rate of 5%, that suggests at least a million infections 2-3 weeks ago, so probably substantially larger now, even with the lockdown. Thus, officially reported infections are probably just 10% of the total, and trends in that small sample may or may not be indicative of what's really happening.

    (There's some dispute over the mean infection-to-death time period, which is probably 2-3 weeks, with my guess being closer to the 3 week end.)

    The same is even more true of NY, since there the official total of infections is only 130K, but the official total of deaths is 4800. A 1% death rate implies 480K infections 2-3 weeks ago, and I'd think over 1M today. So once again, the official trends are a small, possibly unrepresentative sample.

    Up until now, I've believed that the trends in deaths were a pretty reliable indicator, but apparently the ones in NY are starting to run into the same undercount problems as had been the case in Lombardy, and for much the same reasons. For example, here's a Tweet from Mark Levine, Chair of the NYC Health Committee, saying there are already an extra 200 deaths/day in NYC that aren't being counted:

    https://twitter.com/MarkLevineNYC/status/1247155576221716480

    So it's quite possible that the true daily figures for NYS may already be close to 1000/day, but just undercounted.

    The "fog of war" is just pretty confusing.

    On the positive side, the numbers in CA are so low, there's little chance that large numbers of extra victims are being ignored in the confusion. And that UnivWash website has now lowered their *total* CA estimate to just 1,700, down from 5,000 a couple of days ago, which was very close to what I'd been predicting.

    With regard to my point about additional “hidden” deaths, here’s a graph someone put together of the figures from hard-hit areas of Spain and Northern Italy:

    You can see the usual death-rate, the official Coronavirus deaths, and a very large “excess” number, because things are too hectic to bother testing every dead body.

    It would be very interesting if someone put together something similar for NY and NYC in the next week or two. I think everyone can agree that deaths are an objective metric, while the particular official classification of deaths is much less precise.

    • Thanks: ic1000
    • Replies: @utu
    "because things are too hectic to bother testing every dead body" - As you can see from the graph for Italy you have attached the trend of the covid confirmed deaths is a good representation of the trend of all death and thus your skepticism and objections you brought up in the previous comment were invalid.
  149. IMHE projections have been updated for today and are showing earlier dates in peak deaths and reduced casualties and hospital resource demand. The California peak resource need and deaths has moved up two weeks to the middle of April, and national fade out of deaths from the beginning of July to the beginning of June.
    We need to keep the foot on the gas pedal until we’ve gotten this episode of COVID suppressed and then prepare for the next outbreak.

    https://covid19.healthdata.org/projections

  150. @Ron Unz
    I'm not sure how much weight can be put in these trends of official infections because it's pretty clear they're a small fraction of the true total.

    For example, consider Italy. Officially, there are about 132K total infected cases, and the trend lines are based on those.

    But there are 13K officially confirmed deaths, and it's been very widely estimated, including by the WSJ, that the true figure is 3-5x larger because they don't bother to test the dead. So we're probably talking about 50-60K deaths. Even with a high death rate of 5%, that suggests at least a million infections 2-3 weeks ago, so probably substantially larger now, even with the lockdown. Thus, officially reported infections are probably just 10% of the total, and trends in that small sample may or may not be indicative of what's really happening.

    (There's some dispute over the mean infection-to-death time period, which is probably 2-3 weeks, with my guess being closer to the 3 week end.)

    The same is even more true of NY, since there the official total of infections is only 130K, but the official total of deaths is 4800. A 1% death rate implies 480K infections 2-3 weeks ago, and I'd think over 1M today. So once again, the official trends are a small, possibly unrepresentative sample.

    Up until now, I've believed that the trends in deaths were a pretty reliable indicator, but apparently the ones in NY are starting to run into the same undercount problems as had been the case in Lombardy, and for much the same reasons. For example, here's a Tweet from Mark Levine, Chair of the NYC Health Committee, saying there are already an extra 200 deaths/day in NYC that aren't being counted:

    https://twitter.com/MarkLevineNYC/status/1247155576221716480

    So it's quite possible that the true daily figures for NYS may already be close to 1000/day, but just undercounted.

    The "fog of war" is just pretty confusing.

    On the positive side, the numbers in CA are so low, there's little chance that large numbers of extra victims are being ignored in the confusion. And that UnivWash website has now lowered their *total* CA estimate to just 1,700, down from 5,000 a couple of days ago, which was very close to what I'd been predicting.

    For a guy who wrote & published American Pravda, you appear incredibly confident that you are being fed truth by government & media about this coronavirus.

    • Replies: @UK
    The easy rule for explaining his stance on any particular issue is "what would the CCP want him to write?"
  151. @Ron Unz
    With regard to my point about additional "hidden" deaths, here's a graph someone put together of the figures from hard-hit areas of Spain and Northern Italy:

    https://www.moonofalabama.org/images10/excessdeath2.jpg

    You can see the usual death-rate, the official Coronavirus deaths, and a very large "excess" number, because things are too hectic to bother testing every dead body.

    It would be very interesting if someone put together something similar for NY and NYC in the next week or two. I think everyone can agree that deaths are an objective metric, while the particular official classification of deaths is much less precise.

    “because things are too hectic to bother testing every dead body” – As you can see from the graph for Italy you have attached the trend of the covid confirmed deaths is a good representation of the trend of all death and thus your skepticism and objections you brought up in the previous comment were invalid.

    • Replies: @Ron Unz

    As you can see from the graph for Italy you have attached the trend of the covid confirmed deaths is a good representation of the trend of all death and thus your skepticism and objections you brought up in the previous comment were invalid.
     
    Not entirely. Once things get very hectic and untested sheltered-at-home victims start dying, the undercount may become substantial. Until somebody bothers putting together a total-death series for NY/NYC, it's difficult to say how substantial.

    Official NY Coronavirus deaths have recently been running around 600/day. That official in NYC, claims deaths at home (presumably untested) are running about 200/day above normal. Add in similar sorts of figures for NY outside NYC, and the total could easily be 1000/day. If the tested component begins to grow much more rapidly, as suggested by those graphs from Lombardy and Spain, it's difficult to get a handle on the overall trends.

    Since the Coronavirus Hoaxers are claiming deaths are being misclassified in the opposite direction, i.e. the Coronavirus figures are grossly inflated by including everyone who had the virus and died for whatever reason, I'd think they'd be just as eager to see the same sort of chart, which might actually confirm their hypothesis.

    I'm really surprised the NYT or one of the other big MSM publications isn't doing this sort of thing and settling the matter in an objective manner.
  152. @Reg Cæsar

    I have to compliment the would be humorist who calls himself Tiny Duck for not posting any of his satirical comments on the Covid articles.
     
    The Duck may be down with the bird flu. Unfortunately, the humorless Crow has been hyperactive in his absence. ISteve is infected with Corvid-19, but I wouldn't call it "positive".

    https://cms.qz.com/wp-content/uploads/2020/04/RTS380NW-e1586096769759.jpg?quality=75&strip=all&w=1380&h=776

    Pretty funny. Yeah I think Corvinus is sort of a real world, milder example of the people TD is spoofing. At least his spelling is good and he isn’t deranged like the people TD makes fun of.

    • Replies: @BenKenobi
    Not deranged? He'd demand sources if you said the sky is blue. Please cite, be specific.

    He's here to derail discussion. Flag troll and move on.
  153. @Bragadocious
    Ron Unz following Mark Levine's timeline. And the comedy goes into overdrive...

    He’s been bad on both ends of the arc.

  154. @anon
    In WW 2, we didn't just blow up economies. You might say we nuked them.

    We didn’t blow up ourselves, other than that Democrat FDR incarcerating Americans of Japanese descent. Democrats miss that, don’t they.

  155. Stock futures are up on optimism that the pandemic’s spread is slowing.

    Perhaps, but I wouldn’t write off Princess Corona quite yet.

  156. @Known Fact
    This morning's story about Bronx Zoo tigers catching the WuFlu is certainly aimed at maintaining peak public anxiety

    This morning’s story about Bronx Zoo tigers catching the WuFlu is certainly aimed at maintaining peak public anxiety

    Given that we now know that cats can be infected, it’s time to call for new State & Federal Emergency Orders for the destruction of all cats.

    I’d give anything to see the Boomer cat-ladies’ heads explode!

  157. @Known Fact
    This morning's story about Bronx Zoo tigers catching the WuFlu is certainly aimed at maintaining peak public anxiety

    Well, yeah, a psyop considering how many are all caught up in that Netflix thing, Tiger King, and therefore primed to be triggered by anything “tiger”. Duh.

  158. Anonymous[186] • Disclaimer says:

    You silly old crackers can show off all the dam racist charts all ya’ll want, but until those 5G towers are burned down, the virus will continue to punk your dum white azzes, while people of color sample your women before your funeral’s over. I’m just sayin’.

    Tiny Duck’s Temp

    • Replies: @William Badwhite
    The spelling is way too good, use of punctuation is decent, no reference to Lehnurd Pitz

    Grade: C-
  159. @YetAnotherAnon
    "What gave you that (certainly false) impression?"

    This.

    https://www.gov.uk/guidance/coronavirus-covid-19-information-for-the-public

    The figures on deaths relate in almost all cases to patients who have died in hospital and who have tested positive for COVID-19. Slight differences in reporting in devolved administrations may mean that they include a small number of deaths outside hospital. The figures are compiled from validated data provided by NHS England and Improvement, Health Protection Scotland, Public Health Wales and the Public Health Agency (Northern Ireland).

    These figures do not include deaths outside hospital, such as those in care homes, except as indicated above.
     
    Are you saying the Scots are reporting ALL deaths? Have you a link for that info?.

    Fair.

  160. @Hebrew National
    Let's hope so.

    This thing has everyone thinking about the meaning of first vs second vs third derivatives. Very educational.

    I think another name change needed. I keep thinking hot dogs and it is hard to take you seriously. Maybe Hebraic National?

    BTW I told commenter “Ano” that his name means “anus” in both spanish and italian but he didn’t seem to care.

    • Replies: @Anonymous
    Why is the Oscar Mayer wienermobile registered in wisconsin?
    , @J.Ross
    In Japanese it means "that [thing] over there," as opposed to kono ("this") and sono ("that"). A lot of Asian languages have better clarification of proximal alternatives (such as an inclusive and exclusive "we"). One of my least favorite things is a person pointing to a concatenation of similar objects and commanding me about "that."
    , @Buzz Mohawk

    I think another name change needed. I keep thinking hot dogs and it is hard to take you seriously.
     
    No. It's an awesome name. It even has an element of phallic, circumcised pride attached. Think of those perfect, smooth, clean hot dogs, all kosher beef. Kosher beef!

    People around here who take their names too seriously are the pathetic ones. Naming themselves after ancient Roman emperors and such. Have fun. "Buzz Mohawk," for example. What a joke, right?

    BTW Lot airlines now has a great non-stop flight to Budapest. Used it already. We like Lot.

  161. Slow Turning · John Hiatt

  162. Huh:

    Michigan Democrat Rep. Karen Whitsett Praises Hydroxychloroquine, Trump

    https://www.breitbart.com/health/2020/04/06/michigan-democrat-rep-karen-whitsett-praises-hydroxychloroquine-trump/

    A Democrat state representative from Detroit, Michigan, has given credit to hydroxychloroquine and President Donald Trump for saving her life as she battled the deadly coronavirus.

    Michigan state Rep. Karen Whitsett, who recently tested positive for COVID-19, said she began taking hydroxychloroquine once her doctor prescribed it to her on March 31 after she and her husband sought treatment on March 18 for an array of symptoms.

    Plot Twist: She’s vibrant. And her hair is spectacular!

  163. @Stan d Mute
    For a guy who wrote & published American Pravda, you appear incredibly confident that you are being fed truth by government & media about this coronavirus.

    The easy rule for explaining his stance on any particular issue is “what would the CCP want him to write?”

  164. @Alfa158
    Pretty funny. Yeah I think Corvinus is sort of a real world, milder example of the people TD is spoofing. At least his spelling is good and he isn’t deranged like the people TD makes fun of.

    Not deranged? He’d demand sources if you said the sky is blue. Please cite, be specific.

    He’s here to derail discussion. Flag troll and move on.

    • Replies: @Corvinus
    "Not deranged?"

    No, just inquisitive.

    "He’d demand sources if you said the sky is blue. Please cite, be specific."

    No. I only request sources for statements that require them. That's how discourse works.

    "He’s here to derail discussion. Flag troll and move on."

    You mean, ENHANCE discussion.
  165. @utu
    "because things are too hectic to bother testing every dead body" - As you can see from the graph for Italy you have attached the trend of the covid confirmed deaths is a good representation of the trend of all death and thus your skepticism and objections you brought up in the previous comment were invalid.

    As you can see from the graph for Italy you have attached the trend of the covid confirmed deaths is a good representation of the trend of all death and thus your skepticism and objections you brought up in the previous comment were invalid.

    Not entirely. Once things get very hectic and untested sheltered-at-home victims start dying, the undercount may become substantial. Until somebody bothers putting together a total-death series for NY/NYC, it’s difficult to say how substantial.

    Official NY Coronavirus deaths have recently been running around 600/day. That official in NYC, claims deaths at home (presumably untested) are running about 200/day above normal. Add in similar sorts of figures for NY outside NYC, and the total could easily be 1000/day. If the tested component begins to grow much more rapidly, as suggested by those graphs from Lombardy and Spain, it’s difficult to get a handle on the overall trends.

    Since the Coronavirus Hoaxers are claiming deaths are being misclassified in the opposite direction, i.e. the Coronavirus figures are grossly inflated by including everyone who had the virus and died for whatever reason, I’d think they’d be just as eager to see the same sort of chart, which might actually confirm their hypothesis.

    I’m really surprised the NYT or one of the other big MSM publications isn’t doing this sort of thing and settling the matter in an objective manner.

    • Replies: @utu
    Once things get very hectic and untested sheltered-at-home victims start dying, the undercount may become substantial. - Yes, but as long as the untested cases are more or less proportional to the tested cases, a plateau or a maximum in the tested cases implies the same in all cases. Thus your skepticism was most likely unwarranted.

    If the tested component begins to grow much more rapidly, as suggested by those graphs from Lombardy and Spain, it’s difficult to get a handle on the overall trends. - I do not see more rapid growth in the graphs you have attached. The ratio of (total-baseline)/(tested-baseline) seems to be pretty constant both for Lombardy and Spain.

    "Since the Coronavirus Hoaxers are claiming deaths are being misclassified in the opposite direction..." - The are several kinds of 'hoaxers'. The hopeless cases are who are impermeable to any argument as they will explain it away as another government lie and the cold hearted rational chamber of commerce republicans and libertarians who won't be impressed with any number of deaths whether 10k or 100k as all they care about is the economic bottom line. Duke of Qin points out to the fallacy in the chamber of commerce republicans because w/o the government countermeasure the economy would shut down as well:

    https://www.unz.com/akarlin/corona-ideology/#comment-3820199

    "I’m really surprised the NYT or one of the other big MSM publications isn’t doing this sort of thing and settling the matter in an objective manner." - Their decisions as always are politically driven. They can't at the same time keep attacking Trump w/o hurting Cuomo and de Blasio.
    , @Ron Unz
    Well, an article today in a NYC news webzine seems to confirm that Coronavirus deaths are being under-reported by something like 40%, for exactly the reasons I (and others) had suggested:

    https://gothamist.com/news/surge-number-new-yorkers-dying-home-officials-suspect-undercount-covid-19-related-deaths

    Taking that into account, NY deaths have surely now broken 1,000/day.

    While I'm certainly not claiming that all of my various projections have or will be borne out, I do recall that about two weeks ago I said I expected them to reach 500/day or perhaps even 1,000/day by Easter, April 14th.

    At that point, NY deaths were running around 50/day, and my bold claims were widely ridiculed and denounced by numerous other commenters.
  166. @ic1000
    There's the well-known and strange fact that RNA testing for the virus has a false-negative rate of about 30%.

    I looked at a few product inserts for the test EUAs, and sensitivity of the tests run in clinical labs is about 10 "genome equivalents." In other words, if ten or more virus particles are loaded into the test tube (actually, into the well of a 96-well plate), then the test will come back positive. That is very sensitive.

    The nasopharyngeal swab has to be swirled in a small volume of buffer, so if 10% of the buffer is loaded into the well, then 10/0.2 = 50 viruses would be detected. Still very sensitive. (The new Abbott rapid point-of-care ID NOW test is perhaps tenfold less sensitive, by the way.)

    It looks like there is a lot of heterogeneity among infected people. Some shed a great deal of virus into their lungs (and also feces), while other hardly shed any. I haven't seen longitudinal reports about how this changes for a person over time. Presumably, sicker people have a higher viral burden and shed more, in general.

    In other news, the emerging consensus is that spread of Covid-19 is worse than for its sister cornonaviruses SARS and MERS because of the longer incubation period. It seems that much transmission is due to a few super-spreaders, those who shed lots of virus while having few or no symptoms.

    RNA tests (including Abbott's PoC test) should be able to detect nearly 100% of these super-spreaders. Lab tests are being reimbursed at $35 to $50 each.

    With tests finally on the cusp of being widely available, should certain people be swabbed and tested weekly? Those working in hospitals, nursing homes, grocery stores, plus EMTs, cops, mail carriers. The expense of a million tests weekly pales besides the weekly toll of the shutdown.

    Right. In a testing regime of the future with fairly abundant tests, I’d be a low priority for frequent testing due to my normal (and now increased) reclusiveness, while a supermarket clerk or a barber would be high priority.

  167. @Barnard

    We may learn a lot about what kind of health care is really necessary and what kind isn’t.
     
    Maybe, we may also see a significant number of deaths in the next 12-24 months from people who missed regular checks up and routine screenings for cancer and heart disease too.

    I canceled two medical appointments for April and converted a third to telemedicine. I should be fine, but I would like to get back to my normal schedule within a year or two.

  168. @utu
    What about Chinese number? How much are they underreported? Factor of 10, 100, 1000?

    What about Chinese number? How much are they underreported? Factor of 10, 100, 1000?

    I haven’t investigated the issue, but I really tend to doubt that the Chinese did anything much different from what the Italians or the New Yorkers are doing. So I’d guess any under-count would have been for the same reasons and probably roughly within the same range.

    I’d pretty much agree with this analysis in MoA:

    https://www.moonofalabama.org/2020/04/us-will-cover-up-its-own-coronavirus-death-toll.html#more

    In fact, I’d totally forgotten the US “cover-up” of the Puerto Rico hurricane deaths, which the The Economist mentions:

    [W]hen Hurricane Maria struck Puerto Rico in 2017, America recorded only 64 deaths. A study later found that the surge in total deaths was close to 3,000. Many occurred in hospitals that lost power.

    • Replies: @utu
    From MoB: "And the U.S. CDC will now do exactly what China has done during the outbreak in Hubei province. It will only report confirmed cases and the fatalities thereof. That is exactly the "cover-up" the U.S. has accused China of.". The difference is that we will eventually learn about the true numbers in the West and it will be acknowledged though reluctantly by our MSM while for China all we have are assurances by Godfree Roberts:

    I’ve been studying China for 60 years and have never caught their government in a lie. - Godfree Roberts, March 24, 2020
     
    Spanish and Italian data imply that covid victims are undercounted by a factor of 3. There is no data yet to estimate the undercount in NY. But for China we can can go either with story of the cremation urns which would put the undercount by factor of 10 or some crazy stories about millions of cell phone customers being dropped. If Godfree Roberts and the PRC won't level with us there will be many people who will go with stories disseminated by Falun Gong that millions have died, that mass cremation been carried out, that satellites determined the excess of SO2 in Wuhan area for weeks when the whole Wuhan was on the lock down so pollution should have been at minimum. And I want be blaming them too much, I will be blaming Godfree Roberts and China and even you.
  169. @Joe Schmoe

    Hospital capacity appears resilient as demand for other kinds of care has greatly diminished. We may learn a lot about what kind of health care is really necessary and what kind isn’t.
     
    Right. But a lot of "not totally necessary care" is fully paid at high rates. If the only care provided was the most necessary, the total cost would be lower, but the amount paid would be very very much lower. People getting checkups and elective surgeries, etc., pump tons of money into the system.

    Elective surgeries that fix annoying problems like a bum knee are a very nice thing.

    • Agree: Dave Pinsen, ic1000
  170. @Deckin
    So why does the virus, in virtually every country, seem to hit a wall and plateau off (at least at this point)? We have strong measures (S. Korea), weak measures (Iran), no measures (Sweden) and the infection profiles all look the same? Anyone?

    Perhaps, everybody everywhere tends to more or less hunker down no matter what the government orders?

    • Replies: @Deckin
    https://www.bing.com/videos/search?q=stockholm+sweden+news&&view=detail&mid=7DB9C2348FA9AE298AC17DB9C2348FA9AE298AC1&rvsmid=1F27AFDAE6B40081B48F1F27AFDAE6B40081B48F&FORM=VDRVRV
    , @Federalist
    Forgot about Occam's Razor, Steve? The obvious explanation is that the lockdowns don't work. You're too invested in your crusade to see that.
  171. @J.Ross
    https://news.sky.com/story/honor-blackman-pussy-galore-actress-dies-aged-94-11969481

    Honor Blackman, the actress best known for playing the Bond girl Pussy Galore, has died aged 94.

    Blackman, who became a household name in the 1960s as Cathy Gale in The Avengers and had a career spanning eight decades, died of natural causes unrelated to coronavirus.

  172. @BenKenobi
    Not deranged? He'd demand sources if you said the sky is blue. Please cite, be specific.

    He's here to derail discussion. Flag troll and move on.

    “Not deranged?”

    No, just inquisitive.

    “He’d demand sources if you said the sky is blue. Please cite, be specific.”

    No. I only request sources for statements that require them. That’s how discourse works.

    “He’s here to derail discussion. Flag troll and move on.”

    You mean, ENHANCE discussion.

    • Troll: BenKenobi
  173. @anon
    Anecdotal data point: out here in flyover, the local blood bank has canceled all its on-site drives at uni's, schools, office complexes, etc. for the duration. So they've asked for previous donors to drop by one of their centers and bleed. I did that.

    The front door had about 5 posters on it. "IF you have these symptoms, don't even come inside!", etc. Right inside the door was a tape square on the floor - wait here until we take your temperature. The waiting area table had been removed, a few chairs were spaced 2 meters apart with tape on the floor to locate them. There weren't many people around.

    Nobody was wearing a mask, not even the tech who took my temp. But the odor of alcohol was in the air as any tech with a free minute was going around wiping down chairs, countertops, anything that people had touched. Once in the work zone it was a usual donation, which means zero social distancing in order to check hemoglobin, and answering the usual questions on a desktop computer that was probably wiped down afterwards.

    They were only taking whole blood, the other options that involve more complicated equipment such as platelets, plasma, red blood cells were not being performed. Nobody was coughing or sneezing, but nobody was joking about that stuff either. The after-bleed snack was available inside a ziplock but I don't do that, just drink water. The usual terrible choice in TV on the wall, gameshows. Oh, well, I had a tablet with me.

    A reasonable balance between prudence and getting blood donations was achieved IMO. This slice of life goes on.

    Thanks.

    Add masks and goggles to the mix for everybody and this seems like a pretty sustainable model going forward.

    • Replies: @Anonymous
    Still using sickness as a proxy for infection though.
  174. @Mycale
    I think Trump was more correct with his Easter Sunday thoughts (in that things should be clearing out by mid-April) than Emperor Fauci who acts like we will be locked down for years because of this. I expect the rates to begin to crater soon. The 'deadliest week ever' will fizzle out. The weather is getting warmer in NYC - all of March was stuck in the sub-50 degree zone where flu flourishes. Also, most New Yorkers have been more or less trapped in their homes for over 2 weeks now, which is the maximum incubation period (and many of us were already practicing some form of social distancing before Daddy Cuomo locked everything down). Even taking into account the idea that there were "too many" people in the park, or too many people played pickup basketball, or Orthodox Jews continued to gather because they're better than us, that's still not that many people.

    This entire thing seems, from my point of view, to be a social media driven hysteria from a populace that can no longer handle or control what it has built. Even if this thing is deadlier than the flu, it isn't by such an amount that justifies destroying the economy and peoples' livelihoods for years if not decades. Not to mention turning whatever freedoms we had left over to power-hungry politicians.

    This needs bolding …

    This entire thing seems, from my point of view, to be a social media driven hysteria from a populace that can no longer handle or control what it has built. Even if this thing is deadlier than the flu, it isn’t by such an amount that justifies destroying the economy and peoples’ livelihoods for years if not decades.

    Fauci’s Folly.

    • Replies: @Corvinus
    https://www.theatlantic.com/politics/archive/2020/03/pandemic-coronavirus-united-states-trump-cdc/608215/

    We were warned in 2018 and 2019, when the Johns Hopkins Center for Health Security gathered public-health experts, business leaders, and U.S. government officials for simulations of the devastating humanitarian, political, social, and economic consequences of fictional novel coronaviruses that left tens of millions dead around the world. Participants exited the events thinking, “‘Oh my god, we really need to get working on this,’” Eric Toner, who helped run the exercises, told me. Two months after the second simulation, a novel coronavirus (albeit with what appears to be a substantially lower lethality rate than the fictional viruses in the scenarios at Johns Hopkins) emerged in China.

    We were warned in 2019 of the grave hazards of a new influenza pandemic by the U.S. intelligence community in its annual “worldwide threat assessment.” They had also cautioned us in 2018. And in 2017. And in 2016. And in 2015. And in 2014. And in 2013, when intelligence officials pleaded, “This is not a hypothetical threat. History is replete with examples of pathogens sweeping populations that lack immunity, causing political and economic upheaval.” (The 2020 worldwide threat assessment, which reportedly yet again flagged America’s vulnerability to a flu pandemic, has been postponed without explanation.)
     
    From Jus’ Sayin’, a commenter at Unz.

    Americans, and the developed world in general, have forgotten just how bad infectious disease epidemics can be and what difficult public health measures measures may be needed to curb them. As the projections above should suggest, now is a time for urgent public health measures to control what in their absence could become a catastrophe. Unfortunately, the populations of developed nations, the USA in particular, have become accustomed to the luxury of ignoring the dangers of infectious diseases and infectious disease epidemics.
     
  175. Anonymous[227] • Disclaimer says:
    @Lot
    I think another name change needed. I keep thinking hot dogs and it is hard to take you seriously. Maybe Hebraic National?

    BTW I told commenter “Ano” that his name means “anus” in both spanish and italian but he didn’t seem to care.
    https://cdn.seatguru.com/en_US/img/20180607145757/seatguru/airline_photos/LO.jpg

    http://st.motortrend.com/uploads/sites/5/2014/01/Oscar-Mayer-Wienermobile-front-side-view1.jpg

    Why is the Oscar Mayer wienermobile registered in wisconsin?

    • Replies: @Reg Cæsar

    Why is the Oscar Mayer [W]ienermobile registered in [W]isconsin?
     
    Because Oscar Mayer itself was registered in Wisconsin until 2015. They've since moved to Illinois, making them the Boeing of beef.
  176. Anonymous[227] • Disclaimer says:
    @Steve Sailer
    Thanks.

    Add masks and goggles to the mix for everybody and this seems like a pretty sustainable model going forward.

    Still using sickness as a proxy for infection though.

  177. @Ron Unz

    As you can see from the graph for Italy you have attached the trend of the covid confirmed deaths is a good representation of the trend of all death and thus your skepticism and objections you brought up in the previous comment were invalid.
     
    Not entirely. Once things get very hectic and untested sheltered-at-home victims start dying, the undercount may become substantial. Until somebody bothers putting together a total-death series for NY/NYC, it's difficult to say how substantial.

    Official NY Coronavirus deaths have recently been running around 600/day. That official in NYC, claims deaths at home (presumably untested) are running about 200/day above normal. Add in similar sorts of figures for NY outside NYC, and the total could easily be 1000/day. If the tested component begins to grow much more rapidly, as suggested by those graphs from Lombardy and Spain, it's difficult to get a handle on the overall trends.

    Since the Coronavirus Hoaxers are claiming deaths are being misclassified in the opposite direction, i.e. the Coronavirus figures are grossly inflated by including everyone who had the virus and died for whatever reason, I'd think they'd be just as eager to see the same sort of chart, which might actually confirm their hypothesis.

    I'm really surprised the NYT or one of the other big MSM publications isn't doing this sort of thing and settling the matter in an objective manner.

    Once things get very hectic and untested sheltered-at-home victims start dying, the undercount may become substantial. – Yes, but as long as the untested cases are more or less proportional to the tested cases, a plateau or a maximum in the tested cases implies the same in all cases. Thus your skepticism was most likely unwarranted.

    If the tested component begins to grow much more rapidly, as suggested by those graphs from Lombardy and Spain, it’s difficult to get a handle on the overall trends. – I do not see more rapid growth in the graphs you have attached. The ratio of (total-baseline)/(tested-baseline) seems to be pretty constant both for Lombardy and Spain.

    “Since the Coronavirus Hoaxers are claiming deaths are being misclassified in the opposite direction…” – The are several kinds of ‘hoaxers’. The hopeless cases are who are impermeable to any argument as they will explain it away as another government lie and the cold hearted rational chamber of commerce republicans and libertarians who won’t be impressed with any number of deaths whether 10k or 100k as all they care about is the economic bottom line. Duke of Qin points out to the fallacy in the chamber of commerce republicans because w/o the government countermeasure the economy would shut down as well:

    https://www.unz.com/akarlin/corona-ideology/#comment-3820199

    “I’m really surprised the NYT or one of the other big MSM publications isn’t doing this sort of thing and settling the matter in an objective manner.” – Their decisions as always are politically driven. They can’t at the same time keep attacking Trump w/o hurting Cuomo and de Blasio.

  178. New daily cases have been decreasing as percentage during the past few days in Canada. Below five percent daily increase in British Columbia and below 10% in Ontario and Quebec. More here.

    http://Www.virihealth.com

  179. @anon
    Anecdotal data point: out here in flyover, the local blood bank has canceled all its on-site drives at uni's, schools, office complexes, etc. for the duration. So they've asked for previous donors to drop by one of their centers and bleed. I did that.

    The front door had about 5 posters on it. "IF you have these symptoms, don't even come inside!", etc. Right inside the door was a tape square on the floor - wait here until we take your temperature. The waiting area table had been removed, a few chairs were spaced 2 meters apart with tape on the floor to locate them. There weren't many people around.

    Nobody was wearing a mask, not even the tech who took my temp. But the odor of alcohol was in the air as any tech with a free minute was going around wiping down chairs, countertops, anything that people had touched. Once in the work zone it was a usual donation, which means zero social distancing in order to check hemoglobin, and answering the usual questions on a desktop computer that was probably wiped down afterwards.

    They were only taking whole blood, the other options that involve more complicated equipment such as platelets, plasma, red blood cells were not being performed. Nobody was coughing or sneezing, but nobody was joking about that stuff either. The after-bleed snack was available inside a ziplock but I don't do that, just drink water. The usual terrible choice in TV on the wall, gameshows. Oh, well, I had a tablet with me.

    A reasonable balance between prudence and getting blood donations was achieved IMO. This slice of life goes on.

    OT but a propos: Coronavirus has not been found in blood so far.

  180. @Lot
    I think another name change needed. I keep thinking hot dogs and it is hard to take you seriously. Maybe Hebraic National?

    BTW I told commenter “Ano” that his name means “anus” in both spanish and italian but he didn’t seem to care.
    https://cdn.seatguru.com/en_US/img/20180607145757/seatguru/airline_photos/LO.jpg

    http://st.motortrend.com/uploads/sites/5/2014/01/Oscar-Mayer-Wienermobile-front-side-view1.jpg

    In Japanese it means “that [thing] over there,” as opposed to kono (“this”) and sono (“that”). A lot of Asian languages have better clarification of proximal alternatives (such as an inclusive and exclusive “we”). One of my least favorite things is a person pointing to a concatenation of similar objects and commanding me about “that.”

    • Replies: @Lot
    Spanish also has a three-part system:

    Este - this
    Ese - that
    Aquel - that over there

    http://www.spanishtraining.org/images/aqui-alli.gif
  181. @The Germ Theory of Disease
    No matter how this plays out in the next two weeks, the long-term policy solutions to the epidemic are quite clear:

    1) massively increased immigration
    2) DACA amnesty and elimination of ICE
    3) reparations for both black AND brown people; apparently, at least according to Sandy Cortez, brown people were also slaves and so also need reparations.

    It is, it is, a glorious thang, to be a Pirate Kang!

    No matter how this plays out in the next two weeks, the long-term policy solutions to the epidemic are quite clear:

    1) massively increased immigration
    2) DACA amnesty and elimination of ICE
    3) reparations for both black AND brown people; apparently, at least according to Sandy Cortez, brown people were also slaves and so also need reparations.

    They always are!

    Folks here who have obsessed on this–me included, natural to do–need to constantly remember that as compelling as this is, it affects the quality of the nation your kids inherit … basically not at all. Less than a year’s illegal inflow. Less than those Soros brigades trying to storm the border.

    It’s the demographics genes and culture of a nation that determine its quality, its peace, prosperity, rule of law.

    The only way this Wuhan Flu will matter is if patriots make it matter politically, to boot the globalist goons and their fellow travelers and take our nation back.

    • Agree: Mr McKenna
  182. @Anonymous
    Why is the Oscar Mayer wienermobile registered in wisconsin?

    Why is the Oscar Mayer [W]ienermobile registered in [W]isconsin?

    Because Oscar Mayer itself was registered in Wisconsin until 2015. They’ve since moved to Illinois, making them the Boeing of beef.

    • Replies: @Paleo Liberal
    One of my neighbors in Madison worked for Oscar Meyer. One Halloween he got the Weinermobile to park in front of his house, and all the neighborhood kids (and parents) got to climb through it.

    So I have been inside the Weinermobile.
  183. @Anonymous
    I read that this Levine fellow is recommending the excavation of what can only be termed 'plague pits' , that is massive common graves, in NYC public parks.

    London and its environs are liberally sprinkled with concealed plague pits' dating from 1665.
    Periodically and sporadically they are unearthed in construction and tunnelling projects, with the rather unsavory appearance of crushed human bone suddenly appearing in tunnel machinery spoil.

    I read that this Levine fellow is recommending the excavation of what can only be termed ‘plague pits’ , that is massive common graves, in NYC public parks.

    LOL. Geez some guys just love being drama queens. I don’t know who this Levine guy is but if he’s serious, he should just chop his balls off and transition.

    • Replies: @Ron Unz

    LOL. Geez some guys just love being drama queens. I don’t know who this Levine guy is but if he’s serious, he should just chop his balls off and transition.
     
    Well, I'd never heard of Levine before either, but he's Chair of the NYC Health Committee, and he says deaths at home in NYC are currently running 10x the normal rate, with those fatalities apparently left out of the official statistics, just as had happened in Lombardy:

    https://www.unz.com/isteve/turning-a-corner/#comment-3820651

    He says preparing mass graves in NYC parks may be the only way to dispose of the bodies if the death rate continues to overload the system. Maybe he's being a "drama queen" and maybe he's correct. It's outside my expertise, but how would you suggest disposing of so many extra bodies?
  184. @Ron Unz

    What about Chinese number? How much are they underreported? Factor of 10, 100, 1000?
     
    I haven't investigated the issue, but I really tend to doubt that the Chinese did anything much different from what the Italians or the New Yorkers are doing. So I'd guess any under-count would have been for the same reasons and probably roughly within the same range.

    I'd pretty much agree with this analysis in MoA:

    https://www.moonofalabama.org/2020/04/us-will-cover-up-its-own-coronavirus-death-toll.html#more

    In fact, I'd totally forgotten the US "cover-up" of the Puerto Rico hurricane deaths, which the The Economist mentions:

    [W]hen Hurricane Maria struck Puerto Rico in 2017, America recorded only 64 deaths. A study later found that the surge in total deaths was close to 3,000. Many occurred in hospitals that lost power.
     

    From MoB: “And the U.S. CDC will now do exactly what China has done during the outbreak in Hubei province. It will only report confirmed cases and the fatalities thereof. That is exactly the “cover-up” the U.S. has accused China of.”. The difference is that we will eventually learn about the true numbers in the West and it will be acknowledged though reluctantly by our MSM while for China all we have are assurances by Godfree Roberts:

    I’ve been studying China for 60 years and have never caught their government in a lie. – Godfree Roberts, March 24, 2020

    Spanish and Italian data imply that covid victims are undercounted by a factor of 3. There is no data yet to estimate the undercount in NY. But for China we can can go either with story of the cremation urns which would put the undercount by factor of 10 or some crazy stories about millions of cell phone customers being dropped. If Godfree Roberts and the PRC won’t level with us there will be many people who will go with stories disseminated by Falun Gong that millions have died, that mass cremation been carried out, that satellites determined the excess of SO2 in Wuhan area for weeks when the whole Wuhan was on the lock down so pollution should have been at minimum. And I want be blaming them too much, I will be blaming Godfree Roberts and China and even you.

    • Replies: @Anon
    New York will show their death data in a very New York way. Rentals and housing prices will drop from all the vacancies.

    However, maybe not. A lot of their dead may be homeless people. All stats about them will just vanish.

  185. @Reg Cæsar

    Why is the Oscar Mayer [W]ienermobile registered in [W]isconsin?
     
    Because Oscar Mayer itself was registered in Wisconsin until 2015. They've since moved to Illinois, making them the Boeing of beef.

    One of my neighbors in Madison worked for Oscar Meyer. One Halloween he got the Weinermobile to park in front of his house, and all the neighborhood kids (and parents) got to climb through it.

    So I have been inside the Weinermobile.

    • Replies: @Reg Cæsar

    So I have been inside the Weinermobile.
     
    But have you been inside the Dickmobile? That's the difference between California and Wisconsin.




    https://images.fineartamerica.com/images/artworkimages/mediumlarge/3/1969-dmb-at-afi-gate-steve-paige.jpg
  186. @Simon in London
    Off topic but right up your street, Steve: https://quillette.com/2020/04/04/wheres-harvey-weinstein-headed-its-a-place-i-know/

    >>When I was sent to Downstate from Rikers in 2004, my likely fate was to spend six weeks there before being sent up to Clinton or Attica to start working down my max time to get down to a medium (and therefore down south, closer to New York City). Instead I was recruited by Jewish Services.

    While I was still in the sorting hat, Rabbi Leser took a look at me and pulled me over for a talk about the shabbat and other matters.

    “You need kosher food?” he asked.

    “I’m fine,” I said, afraid to stand out and be marked as a Jew in a world that included a few Nation of Islam members and Aryan types. He looked at me with pity, realizing I was still an idiot.

    “You want to spend time with Jewish prisoners? Talk to other people who went to a nice school like you did?”

    I’d graduated NYU three years before, but now was set to serve 10 years for robbery after succumbing to heroin addiction. This time, I got the hint, and said that I actually do need kosher food. Very much so. Eleven days later, I was at Green Haven, just a hundred miles from my wife and parents, with a congregation that included stereotype-approved crooked lawyers, quack doctors, Hasidic diamond thieves, an Israeli ecstasy ring, and a Sephardic sadist.

    The Mashgiach was Ronny the Rapo, and he kept the kitchen right. We had a blow torch to remove the chametz before Passover. For four years. I celebrated every holiday in Orthodox fashion, ate gefilte fish, and drank grape-juice hooch.<<

    I read that. I did laugh as I imagined the Jewish block had to be a lot less dangerous.

    On the one hand, yes, he is taking unfair advantage of the system. On the other, well, the Aryan Nations isn’t going to take him as a white person even if he wants to be–there’s no Stephen Miller option in lockup.

    I have to admit I’d probably do the same. Jail is scary.

    • Replies: @ben tillman
    Jail isn't scary. Prison is.
  187. @Testing12
    Of course it's slowing. And this is despite half the country not giving a fuck about social distancing or masks. Expect a lot of "I told you so's" as we turn the corner AND it increasingly comes to light that many recorded "COVID deaths" actually weren't. The main question in my mind is why so many otherwise skeptical individuals became so emotionally committed to the worst of the doom-and-gloom possible scenarios. I have my theories but let's see how this plays out.

    Also Steve has two kids at home and I don’t get the feeling he’s parent particularly able to demand his kids stay home.

    Moreover, I can’t escape the feeling that steve just like many New Yorkers were terrified of a situation where middle America kept fully operational while they were down. If coastal elite hadn’t bluffed the rest of country into shutting down, middle America would have been much more willing to consider quarantining NYC in order to keep commerce working.

    Not mention how long would Hollywood wait to start shooting in different locations if LA were shut down and for instance North Carolina were open for business? There is a reason steve is extremely defensive of Hollywood for a putative right winger. March 20th or so the LV mayor was saying we need to get back to work and she was shut up right quick. That made my noticing sense tingle. Red states had a real oppurtunity to gain ground on coastal blue states economically and coast right wing elites launched into panic mode.

    • Replies: @The Wild Geese Howard

    If coastal elite hadn’t bluffed the rest of country into shutting down, middle America would have been much more willing to consider quarantining NYC in order to keep commerce working.
     
    I left the NYC metro hysteria bubble this weekend. On my way, I drove through some rural areas. The atmosphere in those areas was quite quiet and peaceful in comparison.
  188. @AnotherDad

    I read that this Levine fellow is recommending the excavation of what can only be termed ‘plague pits’ , that is massive common graves, in NYC public parks.
     
    LOL. Geez some guys just love being drama queens. I don't know who this Levine guy is but if he's serious, he should just chop his balls off and transition.

    LOL. Geez some guys just love being drama queens. I don’t know who this Levine guy is but if he’s serious, he should just chop his balls off and transition.

    Well, I’d never heard of Levine before either, but he’s Chair of the NYC Health Committee, and he says deaths at home in NYC are currently running 10x the normal rate, with those fatalities apparently left out of the official statistics, just as had happened in Lombardy:

    https://www.unz.com/isteve/turning-a-corner/#comment-3820651

    He says preparing mass graves in NYC parks may be the only way to dispose of the bodies if the death rate continues to overload the system. Maybe he’s being a “drama queen” and maybe he’s correct. It’s outside my expertise, but how would you suggest disposing of so many extra bodies?

    • Replies: @Travis
    Why not use Hart Island ? The largest potter's field in America.

    Hart Island contains New York City's 131-acre public cemetery. The potter's field is the largest tax-funded cemetery in the World , and the largest mass graves in the United States. More than one million dead are buried on the island, almost 2,000 New Yorkers are buried on Hart Island every year.
    , @Mr McKenna

    Maybe he’s being a “drama queen” and maybe he’s correct. It’s outside my expertise, but how would you suggest disposing of so many extra bodies?
     
    Cremation, if it's not too triggering.


    Well, I’d never heard of Levine before
     
    He's somewhat notorious, FWIW.

    https://i.dailymail.co.uk/1s/2020/04/02/01/26532680-8178159-image-a-45_1585787393538.jpg

    https://i.dailymail.co.uk/1s/2020/04/02/01/26532664-8178159-image-a-47_1585787396630.jpg

    https://i.dailymail.co.uk/1s/2020/04/02/02/26532670-8178159-image-a-7_1585789661414.jpg
    , @jsm
    Why can't they just be cremated?
    , @AnotherDad

    It’s outside my expertise, but how would you suggest disposing of so many extra bodies?
     
    Uh ... however the family wishes?

    Ron, you've consistently said the death rate seems to be 1%. I've been more optimistic--since the Diamond Princess--that there are more asymptomatic and mildly symptomatic cases out there and the real IFR--the number that matters--is lower (0.5% ... i've suggested 0.2-.3% on my most optimistic days).

    But let's take your 1% and say everyone in the whole damn nation gets the bug. That's 3.3 million dead ... a holocaust! ...

    Except it's more or less the usual cull we have of 2.8 million dead/year. And pretty much the same profile--a huge portion 80+ somethings, a decent ladle of 70 somethings, a few teaspoons of 60 somethings, a dash of 50 somethings and a pinch of other folks.

    So basically everyone in the business needs to work double shifts. (Ok maybe some extra labor during the peak.) Are the crematoria really running at over 50% capacity? Don't we have really cheap natural gas from fracking?

    Haven't they closed the golf courses? I've always thought cemetery ground was wasted there was an obvious synergy.

    Look if NY really has a disposal crisis, they can buy me say 640 acres of dry woodland, a tractor and some chain saws (oil, gas, spare chains) and i'll take care of it. I've got Boy Scout skills and my neighbors can vouch for my bonfire abilities at our blockparties.

    The neighbors downwind might want to mask up ... but as i've been saying everyone should be doing that anyway!

    , @Hippopotamusdrome


    It’s outside my expertise, but how would you suggest disposing of so many extra bodies?

     

    Well, there has been a nationwide shortage of hand sanitizer since this all started...
  189. @utu
    From MoB: "And the U.S. CDC will now do exactly what China has done during the outbreak in Hubei province. It will only report confirmed cases and the fatalities thereof. That is exactly the "cover-up" the U.S. has accused China of.". The difference is that we will eventually learn about the true numbers in the West and it will be acknowledged though reluctantly by our MSM while for China all we have are assurances by Godfree Roberts:

    I’ve been studying China for 60 years and have never caught their government in a lie. - Godfree Roberts, March 24, 2020
     
    Spanish and Italian data imply that covid victims are undercounted by a factor of 3. There is no data yet to estimate the undercount in NY. But for China we can can go either with story of the cremation urns which would put the undercount by factor of 10 or some crazy stories about millions of cell phone customers being dropped. If Godfree Roberts and the PRC won't level with us there will be many people who will go with stories disseminated by Falun Gong that millions have died, that mass cremation been carried out, that satellites determined the excess of SO2 in Wuhan area for weeks when the whole Wuhan was on the lock down so pollution should have been at minimum. And I want be blaming them too much, I will be blaming Godfree Roberts and China and even you.

    New York will show their death data in a very New York way. Rentals and housing prices will drop from all the vacancies.

    However, maybe not. A lot of their dead may be homeless people. All stats about them will just vanish.

  190. @J.Ross
    In Japanese it means "that [thing] over there," as opposed to kono ("this") and sono ("that"). A lot of Asian languages have better clarification of proximal alternatives (such as an inclusive and exclusive "we"). One of my least favorite things is a person pointing to a concatenation of similar objects and commanding me about "that."

    Spanish also has a three-part system:

    Este – this
    Ese – that
    Aquel – that over there

  191. @Twinkie

    then after a few years, realizing all the karate training for decades was useless and the wrestling guys were right the entire time.
     
    https://youtu.be/CQr950AhbRE

    https://youtu.be/vZk7dADtmZ0

    Ha…I was thinking of the same two. I agreed with ’s overall point though, so I wasn’t going to interject (that and wrestling probably is the dominant background these days, but lots of guys incorporate karate into their stand-up). A better analogy would’ve been kung fu…you know, being Chinese and all.

    • Replies: @Twinkie

    wrestling probably is the dominant background these days
     
    GSP is often considered the greatest MMA wrestler by many - he never wrestled a day in his life prior to MMA and he credits his early Karate training for the phenomenal timing and distance management that are keys to his superb MMA wrestling.

    lots of guys incorporate karate into their stand-up
     
    Henry Cejudo showed up at UFC on the strength of his Olympic gold medal-winning wrestling skills and was crushed by Demetrius Johnson. He then re-invented himself as a Karate-style striker and is now considered a pound-for-pound great.

    A better analogy would’ve been kung fu…
     
    Yes. The only form of Chinese martial art that works is Sanda/Sanshou. It’s basically kickboxing (with wrestling in the case of Sanshou).

    you know, being Chinese and all.
     
    I am not Chinese.
  192. Things not looking so bad in Florida.

    A friend spoke today to a respiratory therapist who works at the main university hospital of the University of Florida in Gainesville, which is the acute hospital for that region of north Florida, and the therapist said that they were not really busy and had a few cases of COVID-19. The numbers for that county today are 16 hospitalizations and zero deaths out of 133 cases.

    Duval County (Jacksonville) also has few cases for a city of its size with several major hospitals.

    The worst part of the outbreak in Florida is in Dade County (Miami area), which is a predominantly Spanish-speaking part of the state. What is not clear from the figures is whether the epidemic is mainly hitting the area around Homestead south of the Everglades, where there is a lot of migrant agricultural labor, or whether it is in the inner city, where there is a substantial Haitian population, or other parts of the Dade area. What is noticeable is that there are not many over 75s–it seems to be hitting a younger crowd in that area.

    Articles in the Miami Times are not much help.

  193. @Ron Unz

    LOL. Geez some guys just love being drama queens. I don’t know who this Levine guy is but if he’s serious, he should just chop his balls off and transition.
     
    Well, I'd never heard of Levine before either, but he's Chair of the NYC Health Committee, and he says deaths at home in NYC are currently running 10x the normal rate, with those fatalities apparently left out of the official statistics, just as had happened in Lombardy:

    https://www.unz.com/isteve/turning-a-corner/#comment-3820651

    He says preparing mass graves in NYC parks may be the only way to dispose of the bodies if the death rate continues to overload the system. Maybe he's being a "drama queen" and maybe he's correct. It's outside my expertise, but how would you suggest disposing of so many extra bodies?

    Why not use Hart Island ? The largest potter’s field in America.

    Hart Island contains New York City’s 131-acre public cemetery. The potter’s field is the largest tax-funded cemetery in the World , and the largest mass graves in the United States. More than one million dead are buried on the island, almost 2,000 New Yorkers are buried on Hart Island every year.

    • Replies: @Reg Cæsar

    Why not use Hart Island ? The largest potter’s field in America.
     
    Why not use Hans Island?


    https://www.worldatlas.com/r/w963-h562-c963x562/upload/68/80/7f/hans-island-map.jpg


    Or Bir Tawil?

    https://thegate.boardingarea.com/wp-content/uploads/2017/01/Bir-Tawil-1170x822.jpg

    , @prosa123
    According to the City Council site, in 2018 there were 1,213 burials on Hart Island, 829 adults, 81 children (almost all newborns I presume), and 303 sets of fetal remains. The number of adult burials per year has been in the 700-1,000 range for decades, except for some higher years during the worst of the AIDS epidemic in the 1980's. Only about a third of the adult burials involve people whose bodied were unclaimed or with no known families. More commonly, the families chose the Hart Island option. In most years there are fewer than 15 burials of unidentified people.
    , @Paleo Liberal
    There are reports that they are strongly considering Hart Island.

    I have never been there, as I am very much alive, but I used to visit nearby City Island occasionally. One can see Hart Island from City Island.
    , @Dissident

    Hart Island contains New York City’s 131-acre public cemetery. The potter’s field is the largest tax-funded cemetery in the World , and the largest mass graves in the United States.
     
    A recent New York Times piece on the challenges of dealing with a surge of corpses linked-to a 2016 human interest story they ran:
    Unearthing the Secrets of New York’s Mass Graves

    Over a million people are buried in the city’s potter’s field on Hart Island. A New York Times investigation uncovers some of their stories and the failings of the system that put them there.
     
    It is those stories that can be heart-wrenching. The circumstances that so many people die under that lead to Hart Island being their final destination on this earth. That so many leave this world alone, with no one to care or fend for them. (There are even some cases of individuals who had made prepaid burial arrangements yet still ended-up on Hart Island.) Reading about the failings of the system is demoralizing, if not at times infuriating.
  194. @Jack Armstrong
    This needs bolding …

    This entire thing seems, from my point of view, to be a social media driven hysteria from a populace that can no longer handle or control what it has built. Even if this thing is deadlier than the flu, it isn’t by such an amount that justifies destroying the economy and peoples’ livelihoods for years if not decades.
     
    Fauci’s Folly.

    https://www.theatlantic.com/politics/archive/2020/03/pandemic-coronavirus-united-states-trump-cdc/608215/

    We were warned in 2018 and 2019, when the Johns Hopkins Center for Health Security gathered public-health experts, business leaders, and U.S. government officials for simulations of the devastating humanitarian, political, social, and economic consequences of fictional novel coronaviruses that left tens of millions dead around the world. Participants exited the events thinking, “‘Oh my god, we really need to get working on this,’” Eric Toner, who helped run the exercises, told me. Two months after the second simulation, a novel coronavirus (albeit with what appears to be a substantially lower lethality rate than the fictional viruses in the scenarios at Johns Hopkins) emerged in China.

    We were warned in 2019 of the grave hazards of a new influenza pandemic by the U.S. intelligence community in its annual “worldwide threat assessment.” They had also cautioned us in 2018. And in 2017. And in 2016. And in 2015. And in 2014. And in 2013, when intelligence officials pleaded, “This is not a hypothetical threat. History is replete with examples of pathogens sweeping populations that lack immunity, causing political and economic upheaval.” (The 2020 worldwide threat assessment, which reportedly yet again flagged America’s vulnerability to a flu pandemic, has been postponed without explanation.)

    From Jus’ Sayin’, a commenter at Unz.

    Americans, and the developed world in general, have forgotten just how bad infectious disease epidemics can be and what difficult public health measures measures may be needed to curb them. As the projections above should suggest, now is a time for urgent public health measures to control what in their absence could become a catastrophe. Unfortunately, the populations of developed nations, the USA in particular, have become accustomed to the luxury of ignoring the dangers of infectious diseases and infectious disease epidemics.

    • Replies: @Jack Armstrong
    Yeah, the flu sucks.

    https://www.statista.com/statistics/184574/deaths-by-influenza-and-pneumonia-in-the-us-since-1950/
  195. Anon[351] • Disclaimer says:
    @anon
    Off topic: Evidence that Italians and Euros in general are much more susceptible to corona than Asians.

    Bio warfare? https://www.medrxiv.org/content/10.1101/2020.04.03.20047977v1.full.pdf

    Not biological warfare. The genetic variants discussed in the paper are not that common in Italians, though they appear to make some Italians more vulnerable to Covid-19. Other Europeans were not assessed at all as to whether they have these variants. The missense changes that created these variants are ‘mistakes’ in the genetic code created by DNA replication errors.

    If you’re still worried about biological warfare, go look at Germany’s Covid-19 death rate. With over 100,000 cases–a large enough sample size–they’re still at only a 1.75% death rate, much lower than Italy’s 12% death rate.

    For what it’s worth, Italy had twice the death rate of northern European countries during the 1918 pandemic, and it may have been for the same reasons, namely genetic mistakes in their DNA that made some of their population more vulnerable to any flu that targeted receptors in the lungs.

  196. @Sam Haysom
    Also Steve has two kids at home and I don’t get the feeling he’s parent particularly able to demand his kids stay home.

    Moreover, I can’t escape the feeling that steve just like many New Yorkers were terrified of a situation where middle America kept fully operational while they were down. If coastal elite hadn’t bluffed the rest of country into shutting down, middle America would have been much more willing to consider quarantining NYC in order to keep commerce working.

    Not mention how long would Hollywood wait to start shooting in different locations if LA were shut down and for instance North Carolina were open for business? There is a reason steve is extremely defensive of Hollywood for a putative right winger. March 20th or so the LV mayor was saying we need to get back to work and she was shut up right quick. That made my noticing sense tingle. Red states had a real oppurtunity to gain ground on coastal blue states economically and coast right wing elites launched into panic mode.

    If coastal elite hadn’t bluffed the rest of country into shutting down, middle America would have been much more willing to consider quarantining NYC in order to keep commerce working.

    I left the NYC metro hysteria bubble this weekend. On my way, I drove through some rural areas. The atmosphere in those areas was quite quiet and peaceful in comparison.

  197. @Ron Unz

    LOL. Geez some guys just love being drama queens. I don’t know who this Levine guy is but if he’s serious, he should just chop his balls off and transition.
     
    Well, I'd never heard of Levine before either, but he's Chair of the NYC Health Committee, and he says deaths at home in NYC are currently running 10x the normal rate, with those fatalities apparently left out of the official statistics, just as had happened in Lombardy:

    https://www.unz.com/isteve/turning-a-corner/#comment-3820651

    He says preparing mass graves in NYC parks may be the only way to dispose of the bodies if the death rate continues to overload the system. Maybe he's being a "drama queen" and maybe he's correct. It's outside my expertise, but how would you suggest disposing of so many extra bodies?

    Maybe he’s being a “drama queen” and maybe he’s correct. It’s outside my expertise, but how would you suggest disposing of so many extra bodies?

    Cremation, if it’s not too triggering.

    Well, I’d never heard of Levine before

    He’s somewhat notorious, FWIW.

    • Replies: @Ron Unz

    He’s somewhat notorious, FWIW.
     
    Well, gee, he's a NYC elected official who happens to be a left-liberal. I'm totally shocked! I expected him to be a Trump supporter.

    The point is he claims NYC deaths at home are running 10x the normal rate. Maybe he's making those numbers up, but they got my attention.

    Cremation, if it’s not too triggering.
     
    Actually, a week or so ago, it came out that cremation wouldn't really be possible given these rates of death. Apparently, it was causing huge problems in Lombardy.
  198. @Paleo Liberal
    One of my neighbors in Madison worked for Oscar Meyer. One Halloween he got the Weinermobile to park in front of his house, and all the neighborhood kids (and parents) got to climb through it.

    So I have been inside the Weinermobile.

    So I have been inside the Weinermobile.

    But have you been inside the Dickmobile? That’s the difference between California and Wisconsin.

    [MORE]

    • LOL: Paleo Liberal
  199. @Travis
    Why not use Hart Island ? The largest potter's field in America.

    Hart Island contains New York City's 131-acre public cemetery. The potter's field is the largest tax-funded cemetery in the World , and the largest mass graves in the United States. More than one million dead are buried on the island, almost 2,000 New Yorkers are buried on Hart Island every year.

    Why not use Hart Island ? The largest potter’s field in America.

    Why not use Hans Island?

    Or Bir Tawil?

  200. @Ron Unz

    LOL. Geez some guys just love being drama queens. I don’t know who this Levine guy is but if he’s serious, he should just chop his balls off and transition.
     
    Well, I'd never heard of Levine before either, but he's Chair of the NYC Health Committee, and he says deaths at home in NYC are currently running 10x the normal rate, with those fatalities apparently left out of the official statistics, just as had happened in Lombardy:

    https://www.unz.com/isteve/turning-a-corner/#comment-3820651

    He says preparing mass graves in NYC parks may be the only way to dispose of the bodies if the death rate continues to overload the system. Maybe he's being a "drama queen" and maybe he's correct. It's outside my expertise, but how would you suggest disposing of so many extra bodies?

    Why can’t they just be cremated?

  201. @Stealth
    "Hospital capacity appears resilient as demand for other kinds of care has greatly diminished."

    I'm not sure the discrepancy between prediction and reality can be so easily explained (or dismissed). Hospitals were supposed to be overflowing, not merely slammed. There were going to be so many bodies we wouldn't know what to do with them all. New York City has medical tents in Central Park and a hospital ship. The proprietor of this site predicted a death toll of a million before summer arrives. Maybe the Covid-19 epidemic just didn't get as bad as a lot of people anticipated. Perhaps unknown infections causing only mild or no symptoms really do outnumber cases. I hope that's the case.

    I say this being well aware that lives, even healthy lives, have been and will be taken by the Coronavirus, and I don't mean to minimize anyone's suffering. To the people who have lost love ones to this disease, I'm sure it feel as if it is the end of the world.

    How many healthy non-smoking non-elderly people have been killed by Covid-19?

    How does that compare to the ostensibly very small number of such people killed by the more typical flu each year?

  202. @Mr McKenna

    Hasidic funerals flout social distancing rules

    https://thenypost.files.wordpress.com/2020/04/040520coronahasid4wm.jpg

    Hasidic Jews flouted social distancing rules and held at least two packed funerals on the streets of Brooklyn Sunday, including one for a faith-leader who died of coronavirus — as NYPD officers feebly tried to disperse the crowds by blasting warnings from their squad cars.

    Video posted on Facebook shows cops driving up to dozens of mourners, sirens blaring, during a procession near 55th Street and 12th Avenue in Borough Park that was held for 78-year-old Rabbi Meir Rokeach, who reportedly died of COVID-19 on Saturday night.

    Hours later, throngs of Hasidic Jews, some in blue face masks, attended another outdoor funeral procession about a mile away near 44th Street and 16th Avenue. There were no arrests or citations issued in either incident.

    https://nypost.com/2020/04/05/hasidic-funerals-flout-social-distancing-rules-amid-coronavirus/

     

    “Whatever Whatever”

    The Hasidim belong in their own nation.

    But that said, these folks are about ten orders of magnitude less deadly than the secular Jews who prattle on about “restricted” country clubs, Harvard quotas and work to drown us with their “nation of immigrants” and die-versity.

    These Hasidim via their super-spreader behavior may kill an extra 100 or a 1000 gentiles in NY and NJ this year. The die-versity secular Jews work tirelessly to deny white gentiles their right to their nations, work to annihilate white people, ergo Western civilization … forever.

  203. @Steve Sailer
    Perhaps, everybody everywhere tends to more or less hunker down no matter what the government orders?

    Forgot about Occam’s Razor, Steve? The obvious explanation is that the lockdowns don’t work. You’re too invested in your crusade to see that.

    • Replies: @Corvinus
    Are you not too invested in your own crusade NOT to see that lockdowns are required in a global pandemic?

    Seems you would agree that the U.S. ought not be extremely vigilant about Covid-19 because we had much fewer deaths than what the prognosticators envisioned.

    Instead of Occam's Razor, how about the Butterfield Effect? [Someone I remember on this fine blog made reference to it, so I am paraphrasing here]

    --Why are our prison sentences increasing if criminal activity is waning?
    --Why are Poles resistant to Muslim immigration though they had virtually no Islamic terrorist activity on their sole?
    --Why must I vaccinate my children when diseases are almost non-existent for them (polio, dyptheria)?

    Maybe, just maybe, we have had fewer deaths because we have put this strategy to good use. Or do you think we should "DieForTheDow" and let the older (white) people get it good and hard?
  204. @Polynikes
    Are they still relying on the UW model? Alex Berenson has been great at tearing it apart.

    They say the superforecasters can predict things a year out at the same rate other experts predict things 80 days out. The UW model consistently falls apart after every few days. The latest update on April 4th was already off by 20-30%. Yes, that’s right folks. It couldn’t even look at NYC hospital data for today and come reasonably close for the following day’s prediction, even though admission rates had been stabilizing! This model is bible for the great Dr. Fauci.

    Here’s a good question: what do we do with our “experts” when this is all over? Do the experts who predicted 2.5 million deaths at least get publicly shamed?

    The bankers got their “vaccinations” so we can go back to work now.

  205. @Mr McKenna

    Maybe he’s being a “drama queen” and maybe he’s correct. It’s outside my expertise, but how would you suggest disposing of so many extra bodies?
     
    Cremation, if it's not too triggering.


    Well, I’d never heard of Levine before
     
    He's somewhat notorious, FWIW.

    https://i.dailymail.co.uk/1s/2020/04/02/01/26532680-8178159-image-a-45_1585787393538.jpg

    https://i.dailymail.co.uk/1s/2020/04/02/01/26532664-8178159-image-a-47_1585787396630.jpg

    https://i.dailymail.co.uk/1s/2020/04/02/02/26532670-8178159-image-a-7_1585789661414.jpg

    He’s somewhat notorious, FWIW.

    Well, gee, he’s a NYC elected official who happens to be a left-liberal. I’m totally shocked! I expected him to be a Trump supporter.

    The point is he claims NYC deaths at home are running 10x the normal rate. Maybe he’s making those numbers up, but they got my attention.

    Cremation, if it’s not too triggering.

    Actually, a week or so ago, it came out that cremation wouldn’t really be possible given these rates of death. Apparently, it was causing huge problems in Lombardy.

    • Replies: @Mr McKenna

    Actually, a week or so ago, it came out that cremation wouldn’t really be possible given these rates of death.
     
    Crematories near Bergamo and Brescia indeed reported overwhelmed last week. A couple of similar reports came in from Ecuador. Their bigger problem is that a lot of older Catholics do not believe in cremation and demand old-fashioned embalming and burial for their dearly departed.

    https://www.catholicnews.com/services/englishnews/2016/final-resting-place-vatican-releases-instruction-on-burial-cremation.cfm

    At any rate, none of this means cremation "wouldn't really be possible" it just means that orders get backed up. I don't think this is a significant issue.

  206. @anon
    In addition to deaths, new cases and cumulative cases, would not number recovering be good to know? that is the number of patients well enough to leave the hospital, tested negative. the media makes it sound like catching this virus is an automatic death sentence ...

    To the French experimenter with Hydroxychloroquine/Azitromycin/(added) Zinc Sulfate, Didier Raoult and his team, since they were principally interested in healing (he follows the Hippocratic Oath first & foremost), it was his primary interest to get patients healed, and an integral part of that was getting them past virus-shedding, because this made it possible to rotate them quickly out of hospital, freeing up space for other, critically-ill patients. He has been reporting his statistics on this point, and rightly so.

    But since he probably rubbed the fur of the folks like Fauci & co. the wrong way (particularly after Trump expressed serious interest in this therapeutic regimen), one wonders if they are now studiously ignoring this extraordinarily useful information. Fauci and ilk seem likely to be doing this, because their POV is that the ONLY thing that will work is shutting down everything as that is the ONLY way to bend the curve.

    And yes, this is linked at the root to the media’s relentless push to terrify, rather than to inform. The Impeachment Agenda must be served, and that is that.

    This is the state of play.

  207. @Travis
    Why not use Hart Island ? The largest potter's field in America.

    Hart Island contains New York City's 131-acre public cemetery. The potter's field is the largest tax-funded cemetery in the World , and the largest mass graves in the United States. More than one million dead are buried on the island, almost 2,000 New Yorkers are buried on Hart Island every year.

    According to the City Council site, in 2018 there were 1,213 burials on Hart Island, 829 adults, 81 children (almost all newborns I presume), and 303 sets of fetal remains. The number of adult burials per year has been in the 700-1,000 range for decades, except for some higher years during the worst of the AIDS epidemic in the 1980’s. Only about a third of the adult burials involve people whose bodied were unclaimed or with no known families. More commonly, the families chose the Hart Island option. In most years there are fewer than 15 burials of unidentified people.

  208. @Ron Unz

    He’s somewhat notorious, FWIW.
     
    Well, gee, he's a NYC elected official who happens to be a left-liberal. I'm totally shocked! I expected him to be a Trump supporter.

    The point is he claims NYC deaths at home are running 10x the normal rate. Maybe he's making those numbers up, but they got my attention.

    Cremation, if it’s not too triggering.
     
    Actually, a week or so ago, it came out that cremation wouldn't really be possible given these rates of death. Apparently, it was causing huge problems in Lombardy.

    Actually, a week or so ago, it came out that cremation wouldn’t really be possible given these rates of death.

    Crematories near Bergamo and Brescia indeed reported overwhelmed last week. A couple of similar reports came in from Ecuador. Their bigger problem is that a lot of older Catholics do not believe in cremation and demand old-fashioned embalming and burial for their dearly departed.

    https://www.catholicnews.com/services/englishnews/2016/final-resting-place-vatican-releases-instruction-on-burial-cremation.cfm

    At any rate, none of this means cremation “wouldn’t really be possible” it just means that orders get backed up. I don’t think this is a significant issue.

  209. @Travis
    Why not use Hart Island ? The largest potter's field in America.

    Hart Island contains New York City's 131-acre public cemetery. The potter's field is the largest tax-funded cemetery in the World , and the largest mass graves in the United States. More than one million dead are buried on the island, almost 2,000 New Yorkers are buried on Hart Island every year.

    There are reports that they are strongly considering Hart Island.

    I have never been there, as I am very much alive, but I used to visit nearby City Island occasionally. One can see Hart Island from City Island.

  210. @Ron Unz

    LOL. Geez some guys just love being drama queens. I don’t know who this Levine guy is but if he’s serious, he should just chop his balls off and transition.
     
    Well, I'd never heard of Levine before either, but he's Chair of the NYC Health Committee, and he says deaths at home in NYC are currently running 10x the normal rate, with those fatalities apparently left out of the official statistics, just as had happened in Lombardy:

    https://www.unz.com/isteve/turning-a-corner/#comment-3820651

    He says preparing mass graves in NYC parks may be the only way to dispose of the bodies if the death rate continues to overload the system. Maybe he's being a "drama queen" and maybe he's correct. It's outside my expertise, but how would you suggest disposing of so many extra bodies?

    It’s outside my expertise, but how would you suggest disposing of so many extra bodies?

    Uh … however the family wishes?

    Ron, you’ve consistently said the death rate seems to be 1%. I’ve been more optimistic–since the Diamond Princess–that there are more asymptomatic and mildly symptomatic cases out there and the real IFR–the number that matters–is lower (0.5% … i’ve suggested 0.2-.3% on my most optimistic days).

    But let’s take your 1% and say everyone in the whole damn nation gets the bug. That’s 3.3 million dead … a holocaust! …

    Except it’s more or less the usual cull we have of 2.8 million dead/year. And pretty much the same profile–a huge portion 80+ somethings, a decent ladle of 70 somethings, a few teaspoons of 60 somethings, a dash of 50 somethings and a pinch of other folks.

    So basically everyone in the business needs to work double shifts. (Ok maybe some extra labor during the peak.) Are the crematoria really running at over 50% capacity? Don’t we have really cheap natural gas from fracking?

    Haven’t they closed the golf courses? I’ve always thought cemetery ground was wasted there was an obvious synergy.

    Look if NY really has a disposal crisis, they can buy me say 640 acres of dry woodland, a tractor and some chain saws (oil, gas, spare chains) and i’ll take care of it. I’ve got Boy Scout skills and my neighbors can vouch for my bonfire abilities at our blockparties.

    The neighbors downwind might want to mask up … but as i’ve been saying everyone should be doing that anyway!

  211. @SFG
    I read that. I did laugh as I imagined the Jewish block had to be a lot less dangerous.

    On the one hand, yes, he is taking unfair advantage of the system. On the other, well, the Aryan Nations isn't going to take him as a white person even if he wants to be--there's no Stephen Miller option in lockup.

    I have to admit I'd probably do the same. Jail is scary.

    Jail isn’t scary. Prison is.

    • Replies: @Daniel Williams
    I’ve been to jail. It’s scary.
  212. @Anonymous
    What a damn hoax:

    They are enforcing psychotic social distancing rules in NYC and simultaneously packing the filthy subways with people chin to chin shoulder to shoulder...

    As Tom Brady like to say:

    "Figure it out."


    (Old news: they closed many lines forcing crowding on the lines remaining open)

    i don’t think it’s a hoax, but

    (Old news: they closed many lines forcing crowding on the lines remaining open)

    San Francisco is also doing this. In the same news conference they announce that they’ve cut whole bus lines and service on others because ridership is down 90+%…
    AND they complain that some people are getting on crowded buses, and “please think of the health of the drivers”.

    I didn’t catch the whole thing in detail, but there didn’t appear to be an admission that those two things are perhaps related.

  213. @Federalist
    Forgot about Occam's Razor, Steve? The obvious explanation is that the lockdowns don't work. You're too invested in your crusade to see that.

    Are you not too invested in your own crusade NOT to see that lockdowns are required in a global pandemic?

    Seems you would agree that the U.S. ought not be extremely vigilant about Covid-19 because we had much fewer deaths than what the prognosticators envisioned.

    Instead of Occam’s Razor, how about the Butterfield Effect? [Someone I remember on this fine blog made reference to it, so I am paraphrasing here]

    –Why are our prison sentences increasing if criminal activity is waning?
    –Why are Poles resistant to Muslim immigration though they had virtually no Islamic terrorist activity on their sole?
    –Why must I vaccinate my children when diseases are almost non-existent for them (polio, dyptheria)?

    Maybe, just maybe, we have had fewer deaths because we have put this strategy to good use. Or do you think we should “DieForTheDow” and let the older (white) people get it good and hard?

    • Troll: YetAnotherAnon
  214. @Anon
    OT

    Japanese television programs are now being produced by dramatically reduced skeleton staff, as few as two people, camera and director. Post-pandemic I wonder how many businesses will think, "We never really needed all those people!"? Pareto's Law, 20 percent of the staff can produce 80 percent of the profit? Unemployment may never recover, unless the bring all that manufacturing back from China.

    Unemployment may never recover, unless the bring all that manufacturing back from China.

    If that manufacturing is brought back from China there will be calls from the corporate sector for massively increased immigration. Otherwise factories will be rotting in the fields. The corporate sector will only be interested in reopening factories if they’re guaranteed a supply of cheap labour.

    And any new factories that open will be very heavily automated.

    So even if some manufacturing is brought back from China unemployment rates will remain very very high.

    Whether manufacturing is outsourced, or becomes almost entirely automated, or is done by cheap imported labour, you can be sure that those jobs are never coming back for the ordinary Americans who so desperately need them.

  215. @Polynikes
    Ha...I was thinking of the same two. I agreed with @prime noticer's overall point though, so I wasn't going to interject (that and wrestling probably is the dominant background these days, but lots of guys incorporate karate into their stand-up). A better analogy would've been kung fu...you know, being Chinese and all.

    wrestling probably is the dominant background these days

    GSP is often considered the greatest MMA wrestler by many – he never wrestled a day in his life prior to MMA and he credits his early Karate training for the phenomenal timing and distance management that are keys to his superb MMA wrestling.

    lots of guys incorporate karate into their stand-up

    Henry Cejudo showed up at UFC on the strength of his Olympic gold medal-winning wrestling skills and was crushed by Demetrius Johnson. He then re-invented himself as a Karate-style striker and is now considered a pound-for-pound great.

    A better analogy would’ve been kung fu…

    Yes. The only form of Chinese martial art that works is Sanda/Sanshou. It’s basically kickboxing (with wrestling in the case of Sanshou).

    you know, being Chinese and all.

    I am not Chinese.

    • Replies: @J.Ross
    Kung fu. Kung fu is Chinese and all and therefore a better analogy.
    , @Anonymous
    https://youtu.be/MiJR7VKTHc4

    I present you Justin Gaethje. He is the most consistently exciting fighter to watch bar maybe Shane Carwin back in the day. You will even learn how to spell his last name in time.

    A 2x state champ in wrestling. Doesn't use it. Refuses to take a submission.

    The most brutal display of Muay Thai leg kicks to ever grace the UFC IMO.

    Don't watch the highlights. Just select a full fight at random, with some popcorn.
  216. @Smithsonian_2

    What we have here, besides a failure to communicate, is an inability and refusal to separate out variables. The success of plunging ourselves into a great depression over this is un-falsifiable.
     
    We are going to have to have the mother of all public enquiries when this is over to sort out questions like this.

    What we have here, besides a failure to communicate, is an inability and refusal to separate out variables. The success of plunging ourselves into a great depression over this is un-falsifiable.

    We are going to have to have the mother of all public enquiries when this is over to sort out questions like this.

    I’ll make a prediction that there won’t be any public enquiries at all. There is absolutely no-one in government or the bureaucracy or the medical establishment who is going to want any difficult questions asked. None of the experts who made wild claims (one way or another) will want any awkward questions asked.

    And neither Trump nor the GOPe nor the Democrats will want any scrutiny of their handling of the situation.

  217. Robert Barnes (skeptic) did a good review of the data on his show tonight.

  218. It is a GODAMM SHAME that Ron Unz and Steve Sailer fell for this shit.

    Personally, I was on top of this story since late January and started panicking and preparing since mid-February.

    I’ve spent over 3000 dollars prepping, along with many sleepless nights, tachycardia and untold stress.

    Someone needs to pay.

  219. @Twinkie

    wrestling probably is the dominant background these days
     
    GSP is often considered the greatest MMA wrestler by many - he never wrestled a day in his life prior to MMA and he credits his early Karate training for the phenomenal timing and distance management that are keys to his superb MMA wrestling.

    lots of guys incorporate karate into their stand-up
     
    Henry Cejudo showed up at UFC on the strength of his Olympic gold medal-winning wrestling skills and was crushed by Demetrius Johnson. He then re-invented himself as a Karate-style striker and is now considered a pound-for-pound great.

    A better analogy would’ve been kung fu…
     
    Yes. The only form of Chinese martial art that works is Sanda/Sanshou. It’s basically kickboxing (with wrestling in the case of Sanshou).

    you know, being Chinese and all.
     
    I am not Chinese.

    Kung fu. Kung fu is Chinese and all and therefore a better analogy.

  220. @utu
    "So far, there is no evidence [...] has actually yielded this result." - Really? So, you are saying that w/o the countermeasure in Italy the same number or lower would die. Lombardy with 16% population of Italy accounts for 56% of death cases. If Covid was allowed to spread to other provinces and reach the same saturation as it reached in Lombardy, Italy by now would have had over 50,000 deaths. Furthermore the collapse of the medical system in the whole country would be much more severe as the resources could not be reallocated from less affected regions to more affected regions as it is being done now which helps to reduce mortality in hot spots like Lombardy. But you are saying that this would not have happened.

    But you are saying that this would not have happened.

    No. I am saying what I just said:

    “The success of plunging ourselves into a great depression over this is un-falsifiable.”

    The COSTS, however, will become very apparent. We may very well have steered our full tour bus into an approaching semi truck to avoid a Chinese girl who wandered into our lane.

    This is what you will see: 100,000 American deaths by summer, mostly with pre-existing health problems. Economic depression. Job losses in the tens of millions. The possible collapse of the dollar as the world’s currency.

    Perfect for China. The Sinophiles here must be creaming their pants.

    All the screaming around here by supposedly high-IQ, hard-headed HBD realists, to save mostly old, sick people — and hardly a peep from our stable of MBAs and multimillionaires about the cost.

    Of course, I could be totally wrong, but this is a place for sharing ideas.

    • Replies: @utu
    “The success of plunging ourselves into a great depression over this is un-falsifiable.”

    That your mistress did not get pregnant because you used prophylactics is unfalsifiable yet you spent money on prophylactics. That your son's grades improved after you hired tutors is also unfalsifiable yet you spent money on tutors. Your personal economy would be in a better shape if you stuck to your firm belief that money should not be spent on preventive or proactive actions that are linked to outcomes that are unfalsifiable. While we can't prove that a particular smoker got cancer because of smoking we can infer it form statistics and disease etiology that has been thoroughly studied. We are not cavemen anymore. We know a lot how the world works. There are causes and there are effects and natura non facit saltus.. And obviously you know all about yet you construct a silly argument and then invoke unfalsifiability while in many other situations that suit you you would never do it. Bad faith.
  221. @ben tillman
    Jail isn't scary. Prison is.

    I’ve been to jail. It’s scary.

  222. Projections were off (in some instances) by 1300%

    https://market-ticker.org/akcs-www?post=238821

    The following guy, a professional mathematician, claims to have the “smoking gun”, using the government’s own data to show they knew this thing was on the downslope at the very time they instituted lockdowns (hopefully folks who are more numerant than I can bolster his case)

    • Replies: @vhrm
    This particular video is BS, imo. His folksy comparison about balls going up and down are incorrect and he's also confused or dishonest about it.

    When you throw a ball as soon as you release it it follows a parabola. Its vertical speed is decreasing immediately. Then he brings in Chuck Yegar.. which already mixes his metaphor because unlike a ball a plane/rocket accelerates on its way up.

    The growth in infection is more like a rocket in that it keeps accelerating (and it accelerates ever faster, even). That's what makes it so scary.

    So let's look at his "slide 15" ~2:30. That "decel" arrow should be at the inflection point of the curve which looks to be much higher up than he has it. up around 13 maybe. That's relevant because it shows you have to be significantly further along to know you've "turned the corner"... and if you wait that long, it may well be too late.

    In his later slides note that he talks about some Euro countries, but conveniently leaves out the US which around that time was accelerating uncomfortably based primarily on New York.

    Anyway, there are some kernels of truth in what he's saying, but overall it's more BS than true and definitely not as cut and dry as he claims.

    (and i say all this as one who generally agrees that the lockdowns have been excessive.)

  223. When I was growing up, my father (an inveterate cynic) would often say to me, “Boy, I just hate to see you made a fool of”, when I was sometimes played by the local mechanic or medical facility, regarding their shysterism.

    I’ve had to say the same to him in this current “crisis”

    And I feel the same about my heroes Steve Sailer and Ron Unz.

    Wake up.

  224. utu says:
    @Buzz Mohawk

    But you are saying that this would not have happened.
     
    No. I am saying what I just said:

    "The success of plunging ourselves into a great depression over this is un-falsifiable."

    The COSTS, however, will become very apparent. We may very well have steered our full tour bus into an approaching semi truck to avoid a Chinese girl who wandered into our lane.

    This is what you will see: 100,000 American deaths by summer, mostly with pre-existing health problems. Economic depression. Job losses in the tens of millions. The possible collapse of the dollar as the world's currency.

    Perfect for China. The Sinophiles here must be creaming their pants.

    All the screaming around here by supposedly high-IQ, hard-headed HBD realists, to save mostly old, sick people --- and hardly a peep from our stable of MBAs and multimillionaires about the cost.

    Of course, I could be totally wrong, but this is a place for sharing ideas.

    “The success of plunging ourselves into a great depression over this is un-falsifiable.”

    That your mistress did not get pregnant because you used prophylactics is unfalsifiable yet you spent money on prophylactics. That your son’s grades improved after you hired tutors is also unfalsifiable yet you spent money on tutors. Your personal economy would be in a better shape if you stuck to your firm belief that money should not be spent on preventive or proactive actions that are linked to outcomes that are unfalsifiable. While we can’t prove that a particular smoker got cancer because of smoking we can infer it form statistics and disease etiology that has been thoroughly studied. We are not cavemen anymore. We know a lot how the world works. There are causes and there are effects and natura non facit saltus.. And obviously you know all about yet you construct a silly argument and then invoke unfalsifiability while in many other situations that suit you you would never do it. Bad faith.

    • Replies: @Buzz Mohawk
    You are oversimplifying.

    ... firm belief that money should not be spent on preventive or proactive actions that are linked to outcomes that are unfalsifiable.
     
    The question is HOW MUCH.

    You are the one arguing from bad faith, or simplemindedness.

    Of course I spent a few bucks on condoms, so as not to father unplanned children who would go on to live 80-90 years and cost many thousands of dollars and hours to raise.

    Of course I would spend a few hundred bucks a week for a tutor if my child needed one. That is chickenfeed for a brighter future.

    What you are hiding is the true cost of this: Tens of millions of Americans unemployed. A train wreck of unpaid bills that then in turn wrecks the businesses that depend on those payments, ad infinitum. Plus a brobdingnagian American balloon of debt instruments to further pull down the dollar's already shaky status. A possible collapse of our entire system.

    You are paying approximately the entire modern world in exchange for preventing a few hundred thousand people, most already weak, from dying.

    Fool.

    Whatever. The curves so far of all countries, that have employed various and different measures, ALL are shaped the same (except for that weird, suspicious Chinese one. Let't just set that, er, "outLIAR" aside, shall we?)

    This thing is working its way through our population. Maybe we have slowed it down, but again I say, AT WHAT COST? And you cannot seriously tell me that you know what the tradeoff might have been.

    Your implied assumption that it was all worth it is what is unfalsifiable, and always will be.

    Which, again, is another way of saying what I now will have told you three times:

    “The success of plunging ourselves into a great depression over this is un-falsifiable.”

  225. @Lot
    I think another name change needed. I keep thinking hot dogs and it is hard to take you seriously. Maybe Hebraic National?

    BTW I told commenter “Ano” that his name means “anus” in both spanish and italian but he didn’t seem to care.
    https://cdn.seatguru.com/en_US/img/20180607145757/seatguru/airline_photos/LO.jpg

    http://st.motortrend.com/uploads/sites/5/2014/01/Oscar-Mayer-Wienermobile-front-side-view1.jpg

    I think another name change needed. I keep thinking hot dogs and it is hard to take you seriously.

    No. It’s an awesome name. It even has an element of phallic, circumcised pride attached. Think of those perfect, smooth, clean hot dogs, all kosher beef. Kosher beef!

    People around here who take their names too seriously are the pathetic ones. Naming themselves after ancient Roman emperors and such. Have fun. “Buzz Mohawk,” for example. What a joke, right?

    BTW Lot airlines now has a great non-stop flight to Budapest. Used it already. We like Lot.

  226. Yee says:

    “for China we can can go either with story of the cremation urns which would put the undercount by factor of 10 or some crazy stories about millions of cell phone customers being dropped.”

    If you have no use for your brain, why not donate it?

    With a city in lockdown, collecting cremation urns has been closed because it isn’t an essential service. After 2 month, of course there’d be people line up to for the service. There’s line up for divorce, haircut, vaccine shots too.

    Many people who leave their hometown to work in another city have 2 cellphone accounts. When they can’t go back due to lockdown, they simply drop the other account. I’m sure plenty of foreigners drop their Chinese phone account too since they can’t come back now.

    How strange people believe a strict lockdown and 42,000 medical re-inforcement to a city results in 50K cases and 6% fatality is hiding more deaths, but nothing serious is happening in the US.

    Turning point? I can see YOUR government is getting ready to lie to you..

  227. @Ron Unz

    LOL. Geez some guys just love being drama queens. I don’t know who this Levine guy is but if he’s serious, he should just chop his balls off and transition.
     
    Well, I'd never heard of Levine before either, but he's Chair of the NYC Health Committee, and he says deaths at home in NYC are currently running 10x the normal rate, with those fatalities apparently left out of the official statistics, just as had happened in Lombardy:

    https://www.unz.com/isteve/turning-a-corner/#comment-3820651

    He says preparing mass graves in NYC parks may be the only way to dispose of the bodies if the death rate continues to overload the system. Maybe he's being a "drama queen" and maybe he's correct. It's outside my expertise, but how would you suggest disposing of so many extra bodies?

    It’s outside my expertise, but how would you suggest disposing of so many extra bodies?

    Well, there has been a nationwide shortage of hand sanitizer since this all started…

  228. @Mehen
    Projections were off (in some instances) by 1300%

    https://market-ticker.org/akcs-www?post=238821

    The following guy, a professional mathematician, claims to have the “smoking gun”, using the government’s own data to show they knew this thing was on the downslope at the very time they instituted lockdowns (hopefully folks who are more numerant than I can bolster his case)

    https://youtu.be/LydLELH49rc

    This particular video is BS, imo. His folksy comparison about balls going up and down are incorrect and he’s also confused or dishonest about it.

    When you throw a ball as soon as you release it it follows a parabola. Its vertical speed is decreasing immediately. Then he brings in Chuck Yegar.. which already mixes his metaphor because unlike a ball a plane/rocket accelerates on its way up.

    The growth in infection is more like a rocket in that it keeps accelerating (and it accelerates ever faster, even). That’s what makes it so scary.

    So let’s look at his “slide 15” ~2:30. That “decel” arrow should be at the inflection point of the curve which looks to be much higher up than he has it. up around 13 maybe. That’s relevant because it shows you have to be significantly further along to know you’ve “turned the corner”… and if you wait that long, it may well be too late.

    In his later slides note that he talks about some Euro countries, but conveniently leaves out the US which around that time was accelerating uncomfortably based primarily on New York.

    Anyway, there are some kernels of truth in what he’s saying, but overall it’s more BS than true and definitely not as cut and dry as he claims.

    (and i say all this as one who generally agrees that the lockdowns have been excessive.)

    • Thanks: Mehen
  229. @utu
    “The success of plunging ourselves into a great depression over this is un-falsifiable.”

    That your mistress did not get pregnant because you used prophylactics is unfalsifiable yet you spent money on prophylactics. That your son's grades improved after you hired tutors is also unfalsifiable yet you spent money on tutors. Your personal economy would be in a better shape if you stuck to your firm belief that money should not be spent on preventive or proactive actions that are linked to outcomes that are unfalsifiable. While we can't prove that a particular smoker got cancer because of smoking we can infer it form statistics and disease etiology that has been thoroughly studied. We are not cavemen anymore. We know a lot how the world works. There are causes and there are effects and natura non facit saltus.. And obviously you know all about yet you construct a silly argument and then invoke unfalsifiability while in many other situations that suit you you would never do it. Bad faith.

    You are oversimplifying.

    … firm belief that money should not be spent on preventive or proactive actions that are linked to outcomes that are unfalsifiable.

    The question is HOW MUCH.

    You are the one arguing from bad faith, or simplemindedness.

    Of course I spent a few bucks on condoms, so as not to father unplanned children who would go on to live 80-90 years and cost many thousands of dollars and hours to raise.

    Of course I would spend a few hundred bucks a week for a tutor if my child needed one. That is chickenfeed for a brighter future.

    What you are hiding is the true cost of this: Tens of millions of Americans unemployed. A train wreck of unpaid bills that then in turn wrecks the businesses that depend on those payments, ad infinitum. Plus a brobdingnagian American balloon of debt instruments to further pull down the dollar’s already shaky status. A possible collapse of our entire system.

    You are paying approximately the entire modern world in exchange for preventing a few hundred thousand people, most already weak, from dying.

    Fool.

    Whatever. The curves so far of all countries, that have employed various and different measures, ALL are shaped the same (except for that weird, suspicious Chinese one. Let’t just set that, er, “outLIAR” aside, shall we?)

    This thing is working its way through our population. Maybe we have slowed it down, but again I say, AT WHAT COST? And you cannot seriously tell me that you know what the tradeoff might have been.

    Your implied assumption that it was all worth it is what is unfalsifiable, and always will be.

    Which, again, is another way of saying what I now will have told you three times:

    “The success of plunging ourselves into a great depression over this is un-falsifiable.”

    • LOL: utu
    • Replies: @utu
    So I was wrong. You are a caveman after all.
  230. Anonymous[403] • Disclaimer says:
    @Twinkie

    wrestling probably is the dominant background these days
     
    GSP is often considered the greatest MMA wrestler by many - he never wrestled a day in his life prior to MMA and he credits his early Karate training for the phenomenal timing and distance management that are keys to his superb MMA wrestling.

    lots of guys incorporate karate into their stand-up
     
    Henry Cejudo showed up at UFC on the strength of his Olympic gold medal-winning wrestling skills and was crushed by Demetrius Johnson. He then re-invented himself as a Karate-style striker and is now considered a pound-for-pound great.

    A better analogy would’ve been kung fu…
     
    Yes. The only form of Chinese martial art that works is Sanda/Sanshou. It’s basically kickboxing (with wrestling in the case of Sanshou).

    you know, being Chinese and all.
     
    I am not Chinese.

    I present you Justin Gaethje. He is the most consistently exciting fighter to watch bar maybe Shane Carwin back in the day. You will even learn how to spell his last name in time.

    A 2x state champ in wrestling. Doesn’t use it. Refuses to take a submission.

    The most brutal display of Muay Thai leg kicks to ever grace the UFC IMO.

    Don’t watch the highlights. Just select a full fight at random, with some popcorn.

    • Replies: @Twinkie
    He has excellent kicks, to be sure, but Gaethje is consistently hittable and takes enormous damage in most fights. He won’t have a long career (as he readily admits).
  231. @Buzz Mohawk
    You are oversimplifying.

    ... firm belief that money should not be spent on preventive or proactive actions that are linked to outcomes that are unfalsifiable.
     
    The question is HOW MUCH.

    You are the one arguing from bad faith, or simplemindedness.

    Of course I spent a few bucks on condoms, so as not to father unplanned children who would go on to live 80-90 years and cost many thousands of dollars and hours to raise.

    Of course I would spend a few hundred bucks a week for a tutor if my child needed one. That is chickenfeed for a brighter future.

    What you are hiding is the true cost of this: Tens of millions of Americans unemployed. A train wreck of unpaid bills that then in turn wrecks the businesses that depend on those payments, ad infinitum. Plus a brobdingnagian American balloon of debt instruments to further pull down the dollar's already shaky status. A possible collapse of our entire system.

    You are paying approximately the entire modern world in exchange for preventing a few hundred thousand people, most already weak, from dying.

    Fool.

    Whatever. The curves so far of all countries, that have employed various and different measures, ALL are shaped the same (except for that weird, suspicious Chinese one. Let't just set that, er, "outLIAR" aside, shall we?)

    This thing is working its way through our population. Maybe we have slowed it down, but again I say, AT WHAT COST? And you cannot seriously tell me that you know what the tradeoff might have been.

    Your implied assumption that it was all worth it is what is unfalsifiable, and always will be.

    Which, again, is another way of saying what I now will have told you three times:

    “The success of plunging ourselves into a great depression over this is un-falsifiable.”

    So I was wrong. You are a caveman after all.

    • Replies: @Buzz Mohawk
    That's not an argument, and I was right too. You are a fool.

    Prove that the costs of the benefits we may indeed be getting are worth it. Prove that the results of less draconian measures would not be a better balance while still allowing our other 330 million citizens to remain intact.

    Okay, I respect your point of view, but I have to go hunt wooly mammoth now to feed wife in cave. Take care.
  232. @Anonymous
    https://youtu.be/MiJR7VKTHc4

    I present you Justin Gaethje. He is the most consistently exciting fighter to watch bar maybe Shane Carwin back in the day. You will even learn how to spell his last name in time.

    A 2x state champ in wrestling. Doesn't use it. Refuses to take a submission.

    The most brutal display of Muay Thai leg kicks to ever grace the UFC IMO.

    Don't watch the highlights. Just select a full fight at random, with some popcorn.

    He has excellent kicks, to be sure, but Gaethje is consistently hittable and takes enormous damage in most fights. He won’t have a long career (as he readily admits).

  233. @YetAnotherAnon
    Isn't daily new cases more a function of the number of tests than the number actually infected? Or are these hospital admissions?

    IIRC China stated that if you tested positive but were asymptomatic, you weren't counted as a 'case'.

    Even deaths have their problems, as they are only deaths in hospital, so the 13 or 14 deaths in a single Scottish care home don't go on UK totals.

    I wonder how many cases were spread by International Women's Day on March 8, when CV19 was a known threat and some parts of Italy were already in lockdown? Practically none of the demonstrators were social distancing. There was a huge demo in Madrid, subsequently a hotspot. Paris and London, too.

    https://www.theguardian.com/politics/live/2020/mar/08/international-womens-day
    • Replies: @YetAnotherAnon
    Right, are these the weekly totals, by date of death, very different to the daily figures and the subject of this FT twitter thread?

    https://twitter.com/ChrisGiles_/status/1247458186300456960

  234. @Corvinus
    https://www.theatlantic.com/politics/archive/2020/03/pandemic-coronavirus-united-states-trump-cdc/608215/

    We were warned in 2018 and 2019, when the Johns Hopkins Center for Health Security gathered public-health experts, business leaders, and U.S. government officials for simulations of the devastating humanitarian, political, social, and economic consequences of fictional novel coronaviruses that left tens of millions dead around the world. Participants exited the events thinking, “‘Oh my god, we really need to get working on this,’” Eric Toner, who helped run the exercises, told me. Two months after the second simulation, a novel coronavirus (albeit with what appears to be a substantially lower lethality rate than the fictional viruses in the scenarios at Johns Hopkins) emerged in China.

    We were warned in 2019 of the grave hazards of a new influenza pandemic by the U.S. intelligence community in its annual “worldwide threat assessment.” They had also cautioned us in 2018. And in 2017. And in 2016. And in 2015. And in 2014. And in 2013, when intelligence officials pleaded, “This is not a hypothetical threat. History is replete with examples of pathogens sweeping populations that lack immunity, causing political and economic upheaval.” (The 2020 worldwide threat assessment, which reportedly yet again flagged America’s vulnerability to a flu pandemic, has been postponed without explanation.)
     
    From Jus’ Sayin’, a commenter at Unz.

    Americans, and the developed world in general, have forgotten just how bad infectious disease epidemics can be and what difficult public health measures measures may be needed to curb them. As the projections above should suggest, now is a time for urgent public health measures to control what in their absence could become a catastrophe. Unfortunately, the populations of developed nations, the USA in particular, have become accustomed to the luxury of ignoring the dangers of infectious diseases and infectious disease epidemics.
     
    • Replies: @Corvinus
    "Yeah, the flu sucks".

    It's not the flu, it's Covid-19, and there are major differences. Please educate yourself.

    COVID-19: Caused by one virus, the novel 2019 coronavirus, now called severe acute respiratory syndrome coronavirus 2, or SARS-CoV-2.

    Flu: Caused by any of several different types and strains of influenza viruses.

    https://www.hopkinsmedicine.org/health/conditions-and-diseases/coronavirus/coronavirus-disease-2019-vs-the-flu
  235. @Jack Armstrong
    Yeah, the flu sucks.

    https://www.statista.com/statistics/184574/deaths-by-influenza-and-pneumonia-in-the-us-since-1950/

    “Yeah, the flu sucks”.

    It’s not the flu, it’s Covid-19, and there are major differences. Please educate yourself.

    COVID-19: Caused by one virus, the novel 2019 coronavirus, now called severe acute respiratory syndrome coronavirus 2, or SARS-CoV-2.

    Flu: Caused by any of several different types and strains of influenza viruses.

    https://www.hopkinsmedicine.org/health/conditions-and-diseases/coronavirus/coronavirus-disease-2019-vs-the-flu

  236. Symptoms. It’s flu. I’m a lumper.

  237. @utu
    So I was wrong. You are a caveman after all.

    That’s not an argument, and I was right too. You are a fool.

    Prove that the costs of the benefits we may indeed be getting are worth it. Prove that the results of less draconian measures would not be a better balance while still allowing our other 330 million citizens to remain intact.

    Okay, I respect your point of view, but I have to go hunt wooly mammoth now to feed wife in cave. Take care.

    • Replies: @Anonymous
    you realize that utu is a nonwhite ? just look up his name, see the islander concept it is associated with

    that should make you realize that he doesn't have our best interests at heart
  238. Anonymous[220] • Disclaimer says:
    @Buzz Mohawk
    That's not an argument, and I was right too. You are a fool.

    Prove that the costs of the benefits we may indeed be getting are worth it. Prove that the results of less draconian measures would not be a better balance while still allowing our other 330 million citizens to remain intact.

    Okay, I respect your point of view, but I have to go hunt wooly mammoth now to feed wife in cave. Take care.

    you realize that utu is a nonwhite ? just look up his name, see the islander concept it is associated with

    that should make you realize that he doesn’t have our best interests at heart

    • Thanks: Buzz Mohawk
    • Replies: @Reg Cæsar

    you realize that utu is a nonwhite ? just look up his name, see the islander concept it is associated with
     
    Utu is the future, and the very core of YouTube.


    https://m.youtube.com/watch?v=fzjT84_JpYc


    https://m.youtube.com/watch?v=-AGvxcyzM4w
  239. @Anonymous
    You silly old crackers can show off all the dam racist charts all ya'll want, but until those 5G towers are burned down, the virus will continue to punk your dum white azzes, while people of color sample your women before your funeral's over. I’m just sayin'.

    Tiny Duck's Temp

    The spelling is way too good, use of punctuation is decent, no reference to Lehnurd Pitz

    Grade: C-

  240. @Anonymous
    you realize that utu is a nonwhite ? just look up his name, see the islander concept it is associated with

    that should make you realize that he doesn't have our best interests at heart

    you realize that utu is a nonwhite ? just look up his name, see the islander concept it is associated with

    Utu is the future, and the very core of YouTube.

  241. @The Alarmist
    Go here and educate yourself.

    https://www.ons.gov.uk/peoplepopulationandcommunity/birthsdeathsandmarriages/deaths/datasets/weeklyprovisionalfiguresondeathsregisteredinenglandandwales

    Right, are these the weekly totals, by date of death, very different to the daily figures and the subject of this FT twitter thread?

  242. @Travis
    Why not use Hart Island ? The largest potter's field in America.

    Hart Island contains New York City's 131-acre public cemetery. The potter's field is the largest tax-funded cemetery in the World , and the largest mass graves in the United States. More than one million dead are buried on the island, almost 2,000 New Yorkers are buried on Hart Island every year.

    Hart Island contains New York City’s 131-acre public cemetery. The potter’s field is the largest tax-funded cemetery in the World , and the largest mass graves in the United States.

    A recent New York Times piece on the challenges of dealing with a surge of corpses linked-to a 2016 human interest story they ran:
    Unearthing the Secrets of New York’s Mass Graves

    Over a million people are buried in the city’s potter’s field on Hart Island. A New York Times investigation uncovers some of their stories and the failings of the system that put them there.

    It is those stories that can be heart-wrenching. The circumstances that so many people die under that lead to Hart Island being their final destination on this earth. That so many leave this world alone, with no one to care or fend for them. (There are even some cases of individuals who had made prepaid burial arrangements yet still ended-up on Hart Island.) Reading about the failings of the system is demoralizing, if not at times infuriating.

  243. County of San Diego numbers are interesting. Number of new cases has been flat to slightly declining for nearly a week. Less than 1500 confirmed cases as of 4/7/2020, with 31 dead. Not much for a county of a couple of million people.

    I would feel better about this if we had much more comprehensive testing, but…looks like a substantially flattening curve to me.

    • Replies: @Steve Sailer
    How much of a mass transit vs. private car distinction is there?
  244. @Ron Unz

    As you can see from the graph for Italy you have attached the trend of the covid confirmed deaths is a good representation of the trend of all death and thus your skepticism and objections you brought up in the previous comment were invalid.
     
    Not entirely. Once things get very hectic and untested sheltered-at-home victims start dying, the undercount may become substantial. Until somebody bothers putting together a total-death series for NY/NYC, it's difficult to say how substantial.

    Official NY Coronavirus deaths have recently been running around 600/day. That official in NYC, claims deaths at home (presumably untested) are running about 200/day above normal. Add in similar sorts of figures for NY outside NYC, and the total could easily be 1000/day. If the tested component begins to grow much more rapidly, as suggested by those graphs from Lombardy and Spain, it's difficult to get a handle on the overall trends.

    Since the Coronavirus Hoaxers are claiming deaths are being misclassified in the opposite direction, i.e. the Coronavirus figures are grossly inflated by including everyone who had the virus and died for whatever reason, I'd think they'd be just as eager to see the same sort of chart, which might actually confirm their hypothesis.

    I'm really surprised the NYT or one of the other big MSM publications isn't doing this sort of thing and settling the matter in an objective manner.

    Well, an article today in a NYC news webzine seems to confirm that Coronavirus deaths are being under-reported by something like 40%, for exactly the reasons I (and others) had suggested:

    https://gothamist.com/news/surge-number-new-yorkers-dying-home-officials-suspect-undercount-covid-19-related-deaths

    Taking that into account, NY deaths have surely now broken 1,000/day.

    While I’m certainly not claiming that all of my various projections have or will be borne out, I do recall that about two weeks ago I said I expected them to reach 500/day or perhaps even 1,000/day by Easter, April 14th.

    At that point, NY deaths were running around 50/day, and my bold claims were widely ridiculed and denounced by numerous other commenters.

    • Replies: @vhrm
    I'd agree that overall covid-19 deaths are 1k/day in New york State, or have no strong argument against it.

    However, the same article also provides information that supports the side that the (imo excessive) response to cicis-19 is also causing significant damage:


    Redlener said the city should also be tracking other deaths that occur as collateral damage.

    “[People] may be dying because of reduced care for other non-COVID diseases” like diabetes, heart attacks or other chronic conditions, Redlener said. “Those to me, should be somehow tallied as we’re looking at the death toll of COVID.”
     

    and at the bottom:

    “We had one lieutenant in his 16-hour tour respond to 11 cardiac arrests, which is beyond abnormal,” said Michael Greco, vice president of Local 2507, the union representing the Fire Department’s EMTs and paramedics. On Sunday, they fielded 187 calls for cardiac arrest, where they would have to try to revive people on site. They used to get 20 of those a day, he said.
     

    So did those extra 167 people have cardiac arrest because of coronavirus or because of shutdown causes? (stress, not going to the doctor, etc.) IDK.


    (also i find the context confusing. idk what "trying to restart someone's heart" means.

    I've never heard of first responders not doing CPR if necessary. Without it you're dead in minutes. So maybe they used to not hit you with a defibrillator or drugs in preference of letting the ER do it, but now they have to do it in the field? hmm...)

  245. @Ron Unz
    Well, an article today in a NYC news webzine seems to confirm that Coronavirus deaths are being under-reported by something like 40%, for exactly the reasons I (and others) had suggested:

    https://gothamist.com/news/surge-number-new-yorkers-dying-home-officials-suspect-undercount-covid-19-related-deaths

    Taking that into account, NY deaths have surely now broken 1,000/day.

    While I'm certainly not claiming that all of my various projections have or will be borne out, I do recall that about two weeks ago I said I expected them to reach 500/day or perhaps even 1,000/day by Easter, April 14th.

    At that point, NY deaths were running around 50/day, and my bold claims were widely ridiculed and denounced by numerous other commenters.

    I’d agree that overall covid-19 deaths are 1k/day in New york State, or have no strong argument against it.

    However, the same article also provides information that supports the side that the (imo excessive) response to cicis-19 is also causing significant damage:

    Redlener said the city should also be tracking other deaths that occur as collateral damage.

    “[People] may be dying because of reduced care for other non-COVID diseases” like diabetes, heart attacks or other chronic conditions, Redlener said. “Those to me, should be somehow tallied as we’re looking at the death toll of COVID.”

    and at the bottom:

    “We had one lieutenant in his 16-hour tour respond to 11 cardiac arrests, which is beyond abnormal,” said Michael Greco, vice president of Local 2507, the union representing the Fire Department’s EMTs and paramedics. On Sunday, they fielded 187 calls for cardiac arrest, where they would have to try to revive people on site. They used to get 20 of those a day, he said.

    So did those extra 167 people have cardiac arrest because of coronavirus or because of shutdown causes? (stress, not going to the doctor, etc.) IDK.

    (also i find the context confusing. idk what “trying to restart someone’s heart” means.

    I’ve never heard of first responders not doing CPR if necessary. Without it you’re dead in minutes. So maybe they used to not hit you with a defibrillator or drugs in preference of letting the ER do it, but now they have to do it in the field? hmm…)

  246. @cthulhu
    County of San Diego numbers are interesting. Number of new cases has been flat to slightly declining for nearly a week. Less than 1500 confirmed cases as of 4/7/2020, with 31 dead. Not much for a county of a couple of million people.

    I would feel better about this if we had much more comprehensive testing, but...looks like a substantially flattening curve to me.

    How much of a mass transit vs. private car distinction is there?

    • Replies: @cthulhu
    San Diego is overwhelmingly commute-by-auto; most schools were shut down by March 10; most businesses by March 15. There are signs that people are getting restless, but compliance with the statewide shelter in place order is pretty good. Latest numbers today show about 80 new cases since yesterday; here’s the daily graph (which often doesn’t get updated until late in the day):
    https://www.sandiegocounty.gov/content/dam/sdc/hhsa/programs/phs/Epidemiology/COVID-19%20Bar%20Graph%20of%20New%20and%20Total%20Cases.pdf
  247. “Hospital capacity appears resilient as demand for other kinds of care has greatly diminished. We may learn a lot about what kind of health care is really necessary and what kind isn’t”

    Big Medicine is a racket made possible by third party insurers, privatized medicine – a variant of vulture capitalism – and medicalized media advertising Most drugs don’t really work. Neither do most surgical interventions. Longevity and health increased because of public heath – no bat eating etc -civility, peace. But now that neo liberal globalist capitalism has made us vulnerable to third world diseases for which there are emergency medical techniques like ventilators , maybe hospitals and doctors will start being genuinely useful?

  248. @Steve Sailer
    How much of a mass transit vs. private car distinction is there?

    San Diego is overwhelmingly commute-by-auto; most schools were shut down by March 10; most businesses by March 15. There are signs that people are getting restless, but compliance with the statewide shelter in place order is pretty good. Latest numbers today show about 80 new cases since yesterday; here’s the daily graph (which often doesn’t get updated until late in the day):
    https://www.sandiegocounty.gov/content/dam/sdc/hhsa/programs/phs/Epidemiology/COVID-19%20Bar%20Graph%20of%20New%20and%20Total%20Cases.pdf

  249. Hail says: • Website
    @Anonymous Jew
    Agree, but even under worst-case scenarios is the lockdown appropriate? 60,000 dead is a bad flu season. Over 36,000 per year die from traffic accidents but that’s acceptable because of the trade off provided by the utility of autos. 580,000 die prematurely due to tobacco, but that’s acceptable because of the trade off provided by individual freedom. We could also save lives by banning SUVs or lowering the speed limit. Should we?

    For the sake of argument, let’s assume marijuana is worse than tobacco per puff. How is it logically consistent that the same people that support the legalization of marijuana (more dangerous than smoking) support a total lockdown of the economy and loss of liberty. A policy that - as it looks now - will prevent less premature deaths than banning smoking?!

    This isn’t about best versus worst-case scenarios. This is about the worst public policy in recent memory after mass third-world immigration. Public policy should involve the weighing of costs and benefits. Was that done here? No, this is just flat out hysteria.

    Again, let everyone take responsibility for themselves. Pass legislation to protect the jobs of older and vulnerable people, etc. Otherwise let’r rip. Tell people to take necessary precautions and if they don’t medical care will be rationed by age. You smoke, you assume the risk. You’re an old person with diabetes that wants to attend a baseball game, you assume the risk.

    I’m surprised more on here haven’t expressed this sentiment. Generally people on the right do better with trolly dilemmas while those on the far left get hysterical “won’t someone please think of the children!”

    Even if this kills over one million, a shutdown (which will only save a fraction of those lives at best) is not worth the costs related to economics/utility and individual freedom. I’m not ashamed to be an American; I’m ashamed to be a human. I’m rooting for coronavirus. Our stupid species deserves it.

    (Also, how in the world is it that cucked Sweden the only rational Western country right now?)

    This isn’t about best versus worst-case scenarios. This is about the worst public policy in recent memory after mass third-world immigration. Public policy should involve the weighing of costs and benefits. Was that done here? No, this is just flat out hysteria.

    This is a great summary of the problem.

    There have been those comparing it to a witchcraft panic. The difference is that in the age of witchcraft panics, the state was weak and could not easily just decree a halt to economic activity because a few court-advisers got in on the witchcraft craze du jour.

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