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Trump's Vaccine: Moderna
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It ought to be important to Donald Trump that his administration be remembered for doing an impressive amount to solve the pandemic of 2020-2021 by speeding the approval of vaccines. On the other hand, Trump is mad at Pfizer for slow-walking the announcement of the efficacy of their vaccine until after Election Day.

Fortunately, it appears that a second “messenger RNA” vaccine like Pfizer’s, Moderna’s, will soon announce a successful trial, having reached its pre-approved first interim trial point of 53 cases.

It may well be that Moderna’s vaccine won’t be quite as wonderfully successful as Pfizer’s (well over 90% efficacy). On the other hand, Moderna’s vaccine doesn’t require the extreme cold-storage of Pfizer’s.

But the announcement of a second successful vaccine in record time would be an impressive vindication of the Trump Administration’s determination to focus on removing regulatory roadblocks to development of a vaccine.

Trump should invite to a White House Rose Garden ceremony various dignitaries to be inoculated on-screen with their choice of the Pfizer or Moderna vaccine such as Joe Biden, Ivanka Trump, Mike Pence, Kamala Harris, Nancy Pelosi, Mitch McConnell, John Roberts, Sonia Sotomayor, LeBron James, Tom Brady, Steven Spielberg, Christopher Nolan, and so forth.

 
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  1. It will also work. I would be surprised if the actual efficacy (of both Pfizer and Moderna’s vaccines) isn’t more like 95-97%. Almost everyone who got these vaccines in early phase trials got highly neutralizing antibodies. Highly neutralizing antibodies protect humans from COVID. This has been known for months which makes the wait to roll them out frustrating. We won’t have years of safety follow up anyways. We need to take a calculated risk as a societal or at last let individuals take a calculated risk: resuming normal activities and not getting COVID is worth the remote risk of some long term, rare side effect of getting a two-time injection with mRNA. To me it’s an absolute no brained and I would take it tomorrow if I could.

    I live in a relatively low prevalence area and am young enough that I would probably be fine if I got COVID so this is more of an annoyance than a true burden, but the way liberals have been or pretended to have been so frightened of a vaccine has been craven, stupid and shameful. At the beginning of the pandemic I thought the “the libs love lockdowns for their own sake” argument was overwrought but now I think it’s absolutely true. They don’t really want a solution to the pandemic, they want a way to wear the hair shirt and virtue signal more intensely than ever by making it virtuous to be pathologically housebound and pathological to want to engage in the normal activities of life.

    • Agree: reactionry, AnotherDad
    • Replies: @Anonymous
    @415 reasons


    At the beginning of the pandemic I thought the “the libs love lockdowns for their own sake” argument was overwrought but now I think it’s absolutely true. They don’t really want a solution to the pandemic, they want a way to wear the hair shirt and virtue signal more intensely than ever.
     
    No. What they really wanted was to defeat Donald Trump.

    Replies: @415 reasons

    , @reactionry
    @415 reasons

    Thoroughly Modern Mengele?

    I haven't subscribed to the New England Journal of Mengele for many years, but still get email linking to its freebie Coronvirus articles from it. Perhaps you noticed the chimp-out on CHIMs (controlled human infection models) published on July 1, 2020 and in particular, its in-your-face we-want-you-dead,
    "A single death or severe illness in an otherwise healthy volunteer would be unconscionable and would halt progress."

    https://www.nejm.org/doi/pdf/10.1056/NEJMp2020076?articleTools=true
    more of the same:
    https://www.nejm.org/doi/full/10.1056/NEJMp2020076


    On April 4, 2020 I advocated challenge testing of a thousand volunteers in an isteve post on April 4, 2020. Since that time the US has had stretches of more than a thousand Covid 19 deaths per *day*. Most health care workers under the age of thirty should *not* be allowed to get a Sars-Cov-2 vaccine. They should burn hotter and longer in Hell (if it exists) than "Doctor" Josef Mengele. "Then again, I could be wrong."*- Nah

    * See the Coen brothers' "Dennis Miller's Crossing"

    Replies: @Deadite

    , @Libre
    @415 reasons

    If they work, then herd immunity works, but they tell us it doesn't, so the vaccine can't work.

  2. removing regulatory roadblocks to development of a vaccine.

    We’re from the government and we’re here to help.

    Both those phrases should scare the average person. There’s no telling what side effects these concoctions will have months or years after injection.

    I’m going to deny my informed consent when asked to take a shot. If enough people do the same, they can’t manhandle a huge portion of the society.

    • Replies: @AnotherDad
    @RoatanBill


    There’s no telling what side effects these concoctions will have months or years after injection.

     

    That's true. But neither of these things is "natural". Neither has been around long enough to know much about any "long term" effects.

    The Xi virus came out of some lab in Wuhan last fall. The Xi-virus vaccine is coming out of some lab in Germany or the US this year.

    The later doesn't seem to make people as sick as the former and isn't infectious. I think i'd opt for it.
  3. Andrew Cuomo, Hunter Biden, you know, the important people.

  4. Harris won’t take the vaccine because it was developed under Trump.

  5. Trump should never have embraced the ‘lockdown’ culture to begin with. Already Biden seems to be threatening to force states to accept federal lockdown policy. Trump probably would have clearly won if during the debate he pledged there would be no federal lockdowns and he would discourage state lockdowns. Biden might have taken the bait and said he would lockdown.

    The vaccine is most likely an expensive boondoggle, similar to the swine flu vaccine fiasco that President Ford is remembered for.

    • Agree: Libre
  6. Regarding your last paragraph:

    1) I believe that Trump is an anti-vaxxer.
    2) There’s less than zero chance he would allow anyone to get the spotlight at his expense.

    • Replies: @Gordo
    @anonymous


    1) I believe that Trump is an anti-vaxxer.
     
    You mean this?

    https://twitter.com/realDonaldTrump/status/449525268529815552

    Problem is the vaccine thing was politicised well before Trump. Unable to discuss Gulf War syndrome as seen as anti-vaxxer, unable to discuss the UK NHS using a less than ideal Polio vaccine spectrum, thus causing a small number of paralysis cases every year, nil in Sweden, there are a number of the 'elite' who think they know better and information should be withheld from the people, this is a problem.
  7. Pfizer and Moderna must have done enough trials of their vaccines early on to know that they worked. Remember, the vaccines were designed and ready for inoculation in the first half of 2020. These companies are not doing internal tests right from the start? Otherwise, those involved risk their $billion payoff based on slow moving trials which do not bring results until 2021?

    • Replies: @That Would Be Telling
    @Steve Richter


    Pfizer and Moderna must have done enough trials of their vaccines early on to know that they worked. Remember, the vaccines were designed and ready for inoculation in the first half of 2020. These companies are not doing internal tests right from the start?
     
    Based on "surrogate endpoints," here the pretty good one of serological evidence of strong short and long term immune system responses (the initial wave of antibodies for stamping out an infection of course don't last, but memory cells get primed to produce more and quickly if the immune system detects another infection). The real tests for efficacy begin with the Phase 3 trials, when you compare who gets COVID-19 between the test and control groups. I think Phase 1 tends to have a few dozen, it's focused on picking the right dosing, Moderna's Phase 2 took their #1 into account to try to hone in on what they'd try for Phase 3 with hundreds of participants. Phase 3 does 30,000 minimum, half vaccine, half placebo.
  8. You forgot Bill Gates in your list of invited dignitaries for the first ever Rose Garden Jab Party. Steve are you joining us on the dark side with respect to these Covid vaccines?

  9. Trump should invite to a White House Rose Garden ceremony various dignitaries to be inoculated …

    This would be extra good if it broke some sort of regulation or “norm” that required vaccine be distributed in a certain way or be administered at certain places by certain people or something.

    • Replies: @Buffalo Joe
    @Anon

    ThreeEightSeven, Trump should be magnanimus and offer the first shots in the newly named "flower" garden, because rose is a color, to barack and michelle and eric holder and valery jarrett and kamala harris...you know, just common POCs.

    , @jamie b.
    @Anon

    Why?

    Replies: @Anon

  10. Trump’s Operation Warpspeed will be one of his great legacies.

    Traditional vaccine development simply takes too long. That little Napoleonic squirt Fauci was initially talking about 18 to 24 months. That’s due largely to the unnecessarily lengthy traditional Phase 3 part, where you have to track infections for months.

    A vaccine is has two binary aspects: it either creates antibodies, or it doesn’t; and it’s generated antibodies in turn elicits memory T cells or it doesn’t.

    The key thing about Moderna’s vaccine is that is has your own system create antibodies against the “conserved” portion of the cornoavirus spike that is common across strains.

    This part of the spike will tend to remain the same across virus mutations. This vaccine will have a long lasting effect on those who take it.

    • Thanks: Buffalo Joe
    • Replies: @That Would Be Telling
    @kpkinsunnyphiladelphia


    That little Napoleonic squirt Fauci was initially talking about 18 to 24 months. That’s due largely to the unnecessarily lengthy traditional Phase 3 part, where you have to track infections for months.
     
    My impression is that the normal year plus length of these trials starting with Phase I is to fine tune the dosing, something Moderna probably did a bad job of due to everyone doing this as speed and some unlucky guessing (the word from Phase 3 participants is to "man up" and set aside a one day after your 2nd dose, you may need it; all comes from vaccines by definition poking the immune system with a stick, or in this case more like whacking it with one).

    Note also the Phase 3 trials will continue for months, this very first set of results is only enough for an Emergency Use Authorization (EUA) application to the FDA, and only the highest priority people will be able to get it while their and more Phase 3 data safety and efficacy data is collected. For example, we don't yet have enough data to know how effective they're going to be on the elderly.

    Replies: @FPD72

  11. But the announcement of a second successful vaccine in record time would be an impressive vindication of the Trump Administration’s determination to focus on removing regulatory roadblocks to development of a vaccine.

    I cant even believe how racist that is.

    • LOL: Thoughts
  12. It ought to be important to Donald Trump that his administration be remembered for doing an impressive amount to solve the pandemic of 2020-2021 by speeding the approval of vaccines.

    Not really. You know that the official narrative is Orange Man = Hitler and that no good deed of his will go unpunished.

    Secondly, those who want it to feel good about themselves can take the vaccine, and those who don’t will have to eventually fight off an attempt to make it mandatory, while in the meantime, this virus mutates, creates immunity, and tails off like all the rest have. About the only think I care about regarding a vaccine is that maybe Big Gov and Bid Ed and the Lyin’ Press Infotainment will lay off with the pushing of the face diapering.

    I kind of doubt that though, as they really like being able to pick out non-conformists by eye and with the digital facial recognition. Those with the masks on are free to peacefully protest and carjack at will. There is nothing to see there, Comrade.

    • Replies: @Stan d Mute
    @Achmed E. Newman


    Those with the masks on are free to peacefully protest and carjack at will.
     
    They’ll be hollering that face masks are the mark of evil if Trump’s base takes the streets in the next few weeks.
    , @That Would Be Telling
    @Achmed E. Newman


    while in the meantime, this virus mutates, creates immunity, and tails off like all the rest have.
     
    Except for, you know, all the viruses for which we have "eternal" vaccines due to our lucking out in their targeting a "conserved" portion of the virus, change that too much and "the virus won't virus." For a lot of viruses you also don't get "tails off like all the rest have," i.e. herd immunity, without vaccine intervention, the ones for which that happens get forgotten, assuming they're every really noticed in the first place.

    Here, we're making a bet that the SARS-CoV-2 spike protein is conserved, and in the West's leading vaccine candidates targeting just that. Note also unlike other RNA viruses, plenty of which we have "eternal" vaccines for, coronaviruses have a proofreading mechanism. But we certainly can't rule out a mutation becoming prevalent once SARS-CoV-2 is under harsh selection pressure because it's run out of naive populations to infect (which of course assume enough people get vaccinations).
  13. It’s almost amusing to see the lengths the media is going to in order to deny Trump any credit for these record breaking advances. And it’s going to be obvious to all that it will be the vaccines that will control the virus.

    But if Trump doesn’t deserve credit, guess who absolutely, unquestionably, deserves no credit?

    Joe Biden.

    For a man who was elected President on the “Look at me! I wear a mask!” platform, it’s got to be a bitter inoculation to take.

    • Replies: @candid_observer
    @candid_observer

    Some enterprising reporter needs to ask Biden when he plans to get his inoculation. God knows he would be among the first to be eligible, given his embarrassing age.

    In fact, Trump might invite Biden alone to the Rose Garden for the ceremony you suggested, pointing out that BIden is in the high risk elderly segment.

    , @AnotherDad
    @candid_observer

    The politics around the vaccine are pretty confused--especially for the Democrats.


    The Democrats--to get Trump, love of state power and because they are the more feminized party--have gone a bit hysterical on the Xi virus.

    But none of their program of lockdowns, social distancing, masks everywhere makes any sense unless you quickly get a vaccine.

    If you quickly get a vaccine then you can say "hey, we generated a steep recession and took away everyone's freedom for a few months ... but that saved a lot of lives!" (How effective this stuff has actually been is up in the air.)

    But if you are not on a path to quickly get a vaccine, then these measures make absolutely no sense. They are clearly unsustainable long term. People will find them wildly over-the-top for the actual threat. And the long term "no vaccine" strategy would be almost precisely the reverse: let the young and healthy quickly get infected while isolating the elderly, to build up "herd immunity" and make Xi virus a manageable "elderly protection" problem.


    In contrast, the Republican/"overblown" position is more or less internally consistent. "Bad but tolerable. Don't blow up the world. Don't impose your police state. Just get on with life."

    One can only assume the incoherence of the Democratic position on vaccines boils down to ... get Trump! But i have to note that their sheer love of the state bossing people around seems to be deeply felt as well.

    Replies: @candid_observer, @Mr. Anon

  14. I think your idea of having some sort of public demonstration of celebrities taking the vaccine is actually an excellent one. The timing and selection of them, though, should be careful, so that they fall into the segments of the population targeted at the time.

    There’s a very real fear of taking the vaccine, and this would actually be a first rate public service announcement.

    • Replies: @Alfa158
    @candid_observer

    Wouldn’t it make more sense for the elite to not take the vaccine, while forcing all the peasants to take it? That way our rulers don’t have to risk potential side effects from the vaccine, while the herd will develop immunity and so the disease will fade away.
    Same principle as clearing a minefield by forcing POWs and enemy civilians to walk across the field in front of you. The tough part is that you have to stay on top of the herd immunity by somehow making sure the millions of immigrants and visitors each year are vaccinated. Even if Biden opens the borders and legalizes all immigration it won’t be easy getting all the now legal immigrants to cooperate.

    Replies: @James O'Meara

    , @Aardvark
    @candid_observer

    For whichever list of the highfalutin they might settle on, it must include the über dick, Bill Gates.
    I want to see if he will take his own medicine... no placebo vials...

    , @Lucius Somesuch
    @candid_observer

    "Welcome to Hell, Blofeld."

    https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=-wyrwOJJtNw

  15. @candid_observer
    It's almost amusing to see the lengths the media is going to in order to deny Trump any credit for these record breaking advances. And it's going to be obvious to all that it will be the vaccines that will control the virus.

    But if Trump doesn't deserve credit, guess who absolutely, unquestionably, deserves no credit?

    Joe Biden.

    For a man who was elected President on the "Look at me! I wear a mask!" platform, it's got to be a bitter inoculation to take.

    Replies: @candid_observer, @AnotherDad

    Some enterprising reporter needs to ask Biden when he plans to get his inoculation. God knows he would be among the first to be eligible, given his embarrassing age.

    In fact, Trump might invite Biden alone to the Rose Garden for the ceremony you suggested, pointing out that BIden is in the high risk elderly segment.

  16. … and Steve Sailer.

    Whichever vaccine it is, it really should go first (and perhaps only) to people who actually are at risk from this and all other corona viruses: the elderly and people with serious health problems or susceptibilities.

    The rest of us should go on with our lives — and should have been allowed to from the beginning of this hysteria.

    Also, it’s really funny how presidents and such get credit or blame when things they really have little to do with go well or badly. Sure, Trump approved an accelerated plan and the corresponding $billions and coordination with Big Pharma, but, like JFK, he didn’t exactly build a Saturn V and fly to the moon — nor could any other president have.

    Same goes for the way presidents either take credit or blame for massive economies that they can’t and don’t control.

    But people need kings, gods and heroes to displace things onto, apparently.

    • Agree: Mr. Anon
    • Replies: @Joe Stalin
    @Buzz Mohawk

    https://upload.wikimedia.org/wikipedia/commons/f/f9/Apollo11Plaque.jpg

    No JFK signature. If it was my decision, I would have had Wernher von Braun pen some words and put his name on it as he alone set it all into motion.

    , @res
    @Buzz Mohawk


    Whichever vaccine it is, it really should go first (and perhaps only) to people who actually are at risk from this and all other corona viruses: the elderly and people with serious health problems or susceptibilities.
     
    For maximum effectiveness within the population as a whole you also want to vaccinate high connectivity people (e.g. frequent flyers) who might transmit the disease.
    , @DRA
    @Buzz Mohawk

    I hear that minorities are more susceptible to Covid 19, does that mean that they are among those that get first crack at the vaccine?

  17. Ezekiel Emanuel, whom Biden appointed to his coronavirus task force, might advise Biden not to bother with the shot. As he wrote in his Atlantic article, “Why I Hope to Die at 75”:

    At 75 and beyond, I will need a good reason to even visit the doctor and take any medical test or treatment, no matter how routine and painless. And that good reason is not “It will prolong your life.”…. What about simple stuff? Flu shots are out. Certainly if there were to be a flu pandemic, a younger person who has yet to live a complete life ought to get the vaccine or any antiviral drugs.

  18. For those of us who remember the 1976 swine flu vaccination fiasco, the concept of mass inoculations with a minimaly-tested, rushed-to-production vaccine for a highly contagious, but not particularly lethal virus is very disturbing. And the fact that it isn’t only a new vaccine, but a new type of vaccine that uses messenger RNA (whatever that is) makes me even more uneasy. (I’ve read that it actually makes a person a genetically modified organism, but don’t have the scientific expertise to evaluate such a claim.) There’s a reason that vaccine development often takes a while, such as evaluating the long-term side effects. This vaccination program has all the signs of a major health disaster. I’d prefer to take my chances with the virus and I’m in my seventh decade.

    • Agree: Thoughts
    • Replies: @MB
    @Diversity Heretic

    Agreed.

    The only vaccine really needed has been one in regard to all the panic and pandemonium surrounding a nasty respiratory virus that is not and never has been the Second Coming of the Black Plague like our handlers have repeatedly told us.

    The Diamond Princess cruise ship and the USS Roosevelt made that perfectly clear to anybody that has seen one of these psy ops before.

    But the Mask Hysteria will continue until the masses get their placebo/pacifier.
    Everybody is infected until they are "proven" healthy or take the vaccine.

    No, thank you.

    , @Deadite
    @Diversity Heretic

    I look forward to all the people being vaccinated on stage with Trump screaming horribly and mutating into zombies.

    Wait, Nancy and Joe already are.

    Never mind!

    , @That Would Be Telling
    @Diversity Heretic


    And the fact that it isn’t only a new vaccine, but a new type of vaccine that uses messenger RNA (whatever that is) makes me even more uneasy. (I’ve read that it actually makes a person a genetically modified organism, but don’t have the scientific expertise to evaluate such a claim.) There’s a reason that vaccine development often takes a while, such as evaluating the long-term side effects.
     
    DNA gets transcribed into mRNA, which travels outside the nucleus where the former is mostly located to the protein producing parts of cells, where mRNA serves as the template for the production of proteins, 3 base pars code for one amino acid. RNA viruses hijack this system, creating as lot of virus mRNA that the cell then uses to create more viruses. The immune system is on the lookout for hijacked cells, and kills them using a variety of mechanisms, the "adaptive" system creating antibodies taking the longest.

    mRNA vaccines work just like the wild type virus, except they only hijack a relative few cells, and produce only one protein, here the infamous spike one that plays a critical role in the wild type getting into cells. So your immune system will think these vaccine hijacked cells are the real thing, and produce antibodies and memory cells for future bouts. In theory much more precise and safe than other technology, but that of course has to be proven in the real world.

    As for "it actually makes a person a genetically modified organism," it's garbage. It works like the wild type virus (so you can just wait until you get that), and in any case all these cells are killed by the immune system. To make you a GMO like HIV does, you'd need to convert the mRNA into DNA, and without reverse transcriptase being in the vaccine that's not going to happen (as the name implies, it transcribes RNA into DNA). This propaganda is awful because this class of vaccines never invokes DNA, whereas the other 2 most advanced in testing Western vaccine candidates use DNA viruses that have been modified to include the genetic code for the spike vaccine, and to not be able to reproduce (I have no opinion on their theoretical safety, but this is supposed to be a now standard vaccine technology).

    One of the normal reasons vaccine development takes a long time is fine tuning the dosing, we're short circuiting that one part of the process, and Moderna, the other mRNA vaccine candidate, appears to have guessed on dosages that are probably higher than needed (from participants, "man up," and set aside a day after the 2nd dose, you may really need it).

    The other thing is that we still have a long time before the full FDA approval process is finished. Right now it's only for Emergency Use Authorizations (EUAs), and based on those only a few cohorts of either the most vulnerable or those likely to infect the most vulnerable will be able to get these vaccines. Approval for more general populations will be based on their experiences, plus the longer term experiences of the Phase 3 test subjects, for those a minimum of 15,000 getting the vaccine.
  19. That Emmanuel would be appointed to the Covid task force simply reinforces my conclusion that there was zero concern among high-level bureaucrats about deaths of the most vulnerable. The only thing worse than being a Deplorable is being an Expendable.

    • Replies: @Buffalo Joe
    @Bert

    Bert, I am surprised that the whole obama administration isn't on the Task Force, but soon they ALL will be part of biden-harris.

    Replies: @J.Ross

    , @Jim Don Bob
    @Bert


    The only thing worse than being a Deplorable is being an Expendable.
     
    Well said, sir.
  20. Is anybody else just slightly creeped out by the way RNA vaccines work? As I understand it, the vaccine itself acts sort of like a virus, in that the RNA is enclosed in lipid globules that are taken up by your own cells, which then start manufacturing and pumping out the Coronavirus spike protein. This is in contrast to a traditional killed virus vaccine, where the body’s immune system reacts to a foreign intrusion in the usual way.

    So, how many of your body’s cells does the vaccine “infect?” Which cells are they, and how are they distributed? How long do they continue pumping our virus protein? This isn’t a terribly serious objection, because I’m sure any big problems would show up in the trials. Still, I’ll probably hold off for a month or two after the vaccine becomes available. Probably wise anyway.

    • Replies: @That Would Be Telling
    @jb


    Is anybody else just slightly creeped out by the way RNA vaccines work? As I understand it, the vaccine itself acts sort of like a virus, in that the RNA is enclosed in lipid globules that are taken up by your own cells, which then start manufacturing and pumping out the Coronavirus spike protein. This is in contrast to a traditional killed virus vaccine, where the body’s immune system reacts to a foreign intrusion in the usual way.

    So, how many of your body’s cells does the vaccine “infect?” Which cells are they, and how are they distributed? How long do they continue pumping our virus protein?
     
    Not at all! For the more you mimic nature, the less you're going to get either unexpected results, or ones worse than getting the real wild type virus, don't forget that's the eventual alternative to not getting vaccinated. In theory, given their extreme precision, they should be the safest vaccines yet, as you said in a part I clipped, this can only be determined by the trials, and the first cohorts who get vaccinated under the Emergency Use Authorizations we assume the FDA will be issuing.

    Note there are many more types of vaccine than killed virus ones, the very first for smallpox was a live virus, different than smallpox but giving immunity to the latter. Current attenuated live virus vaccines that are given to "everyone" include the ones for measles, mumps, rubella, and chickenpox (which protects you from shingles, trust me, you want to avoid that!). So these ones do the full virus thing, they're just adjusted so you don't get a full blown infection.

    I like the word "hijack" instead of infect, all of the wild type virus, the mRNA vaccines and the 2 leading Western viral vector vaccines do roughly the same thing. And that should give a much better immune system response, because they all look roughly the same to the immune system. On the other hand, a full spectrum response might harm more people compared to a inactivated/killed virus, or proteins harvested from one like our flu viruses.

    A theoretical thing you imply to watch out for is that people don't get COVID-19 by it being injected into a muscle, you're right to be suspicious. But SARS-CoV-2 is known to travel to all sorts of places in the body, there's even a very real possibility it'll sterilize up to 20% of the men who get symptomatic (it's been observed to take a long time to clear from the testes, and given the pain response, it can't be doing any good there). So we'll see.

    For "How long do they continue pumping our virus protein?," only until your adaptive immune system gears up to terminate these hijacked cells with extreme prejudice. Of course, any time we poke the immune system with a stick (or more like wack it with a stick for Moderna with its current dosing), statistically bad things will happen. And our immune systems are wild enough other things can happen, see dengue for one example where multiple strains are involved.

    My bottom line: the theory is good, the practice so far is good, I'm in the very lowest priority cohort (< 65 and no comorbidities aside from being a bit overweight), we wait and see, remembering that people are dying in numbers not seen for a century (and that's with a century's advances in general medicine), COVID-19 seems to be at minimum 30 times worse than a normal seasonal flu.
  21. @candid_observer
    It's almost amusing to see the lengths the media is going to in order to deny Trump any credit for these record breaking advances. And it's going to be obvious to all that it will be the vaccines that will control the virus.

    But if Trump doesn't deserve credit, guess who absolutely, unquestionably, deserves no credit?

    Joe Biden.

    For a man who was elected President on the "Look at me! I wear a mask!" platform, it's got to be a bitter inoculation to take.

    Replies: @candid_observer, @AnotherDad

    The politics around the vaccine are pretty confused–especially for the Democrats.

    The Democrats–to get Trump, love of state power and because they are the more feminized party–have gone a bit hysterical on the Xi virus.

    But none of their program of lockdowns, social distancing, masks everywhere makes any sense unless you quickly get a vaccine.

    If you quickly get a vaccine then you can say “hey, we generated a steep recession and took away everyone’s freedom for a few months … but that saved a lot of lives!” (How effective this stuff has actually been is up in the air.)

    But if you are not on a path to quickly get a vaccine, then these measures make absolutely no sense. They are clearly unsustainable long term. People will find them wildly over-the-top for the actual threat. And the long term “no vaccine” strategy would be almost precisely the reverse: let the young and healthy quickly get infected while isolating the elderly, to build up “herd immunity” and make Xi virus a manageable “elderly protection” problem.

    In contrast, the Republican/”overblown” position is more or less internally consistent. “Bad but tolerable. Don’t blow up the world. Don’t impose your police state. Just get on with life.”

    One can only assume the incoherence of the Democratic position on vaccines boils down to … get Trump! But i have to note that their sheer love of the state bossing people around seems to be deeply felt as well.

    • Replies: @candid_observer
    @AnotherDad

    I think that the current open question for the Democrats will be: how many people, and what types of people, have to be inoculated before we can stop lockdowns and other measures?

    The lower and lower the risk of the unvaccinated population getting a serious case of Covid, the more unjustifiable are the consequences of a lockdown. When do these tradeoffs finally work against lockdowns? I have to expect that the Dems and the media will gin up all possible hysteria about the dangers of covid to younger, healthier people so that the Dems will look like they are doing the right thing.

    One might expect that getting the vaccines to all of the elderly and those with risky conditions would do the trick. But I'm sure that won't be how the decision will be made.

    Replies: @Buzz Mohawk, @candid_observer

    , @Mr. Anon
    @AnotherDad


    If you quickly get a vaccine then you can say “hey, we generated a steep recession and took away everyone’s freedom for a few months … but that saved a lot of lives!” (How effective this stuff has actually been is up in the air.)
     
    It's not up in the air. Lockdowns didn't work. Lockdown regime is uncorrelated with death rate.

    But if you are not on a path to quickly get a vaccine, then these measures make absolutely no sense. They are clearly unsustainable long term. People will find them wildly over-the-top for the actual threat.
     
    People could have done that already, but they haven't. And they are sustainable long term in a repressive police-state, which is where most of the western world is headed.

    Replies: @Anonymous

  22. They were, upon the whole, from the black day when they first entered Europe, the one great anti-human specimen of humanity. Wherever they went a broad line of blood marked the track behind them, and, as far as their dominion reached, civilization disappeared from view. (Bulgarian Horrors and the Question of the East, Gladstone (1876)

    Coronavirus: The married couple behind the successful Pfizer COVID vaccine.
    But while the vaccine has been bankrolled by the American pharmaceutical giant, the science itself is the work of BioNTech, a German company founded by married couple and dedicated physicians Ugur Sahin and Ozlem Tureci. Together, they are being hailed as the brains that allowed the potentially transformative coronavirus vaccine to come about.

    Scientists and entrepreneurs Professor Sahin, 55, and Dr Tureci, 53, are now among the 100 richest Germans, with the value of their company BioNTech soaring to $21bn (£16bn) in the wake of the vaccine breakthrough. Chief executive officer of BioNTech, Mr Sahin was born in the Turkish city of Iskenderun, moving to West Germany at four years old. Dr Tureci, who is the company’s chief medical officer, was born in Germany and is the daughter of a Turkish physician who migrated to the country from Istanbul.

    The highest achievers in the professional-technical and civil service class of the West are immigrants or the children of immigrants, conforming to the pattern identified by Lewis in his book The Fifth Risk: Undoing Democracywhich is about how such folk seethed at having to (ostensibly it now seems) take orders from those appointed by anti-immigration and Muslim banning, Trump: his entitled rich kid son in law Kushner and other minions. They were supposed to supervise, but it is now apparent they lacked all capability to.

    Herman in his How the Scots Invented the Modern World mentions that their country was once the poorest in Europe, the era of invention by Scots is long gone, immigrant provide all the energy and it’s connected with how it better to be a poor man in a rich country than a rich man in a poor one. No political leader could administer the tough love necessary to make downwardly mobile young American buck their ideas up Indeed there may be a biological explanation: intelligence is declining:-

    Dutton, E., D. van der Linden, and R. Lynn. (2016). The negative Flynn Effect: A systematic literature review. Intelligence 59: 163-169.
    https://www.gwern.net/docs/iq/2016-dutton.pdf

    Even in the most dysfunctional country there is a high IQ fraction and why would they not leave for the West and join Obama or Kamala (Obama may be doubtful for Lewis’s ‘first-generation Americans’, but no question Harris as the product of a union between a South Asian and an Afro -Caribbean both of who came to the US as adults, fits the bill). The trend is clear and will continue now. I expect America to be deluged by a tsunami of highly capable immigrants who will increasingly dominate the technical class administration as they already are beginning to in politics at the highest level (Britain is no different with the Mayor of London and two most senior cabinet ministers being South Asians) Nonwhite, new-American presidents are now a trend: Biden may be the last white man in the White House, quite possibly the last white for white women presidents are a step than has been jumped over entirely. Trump lost because so few of his supporters could be found among those doing and overseeing the actual scientific work that he was throwing money at. Harris’s mother was a very accomplished biomedical scientist …

    • Replies: @Ponce Faggy
    @Sean

    tain is no different with the Mayor of London and two most senior cabinet ministers being South Asians'

    Coz BoJo is a useless, cosseted, upper class twit. He's never met a working class White lad.

    Replies: @Sean

    , @Reg Cæsar
    @Sean


    ...immigrant provide all the energy and it’s connected with how it better to be a poor man in a rich country than a rich man in a poor one.
     
    But is it? Compare the lives of the Dionne quintuplets in Canada with those of the wealthy Diligentis in Buenos Aires.


    World's first surviving quintuplet, 82, who shared $3million settlement with her siblings after being taken from their family and turned into a tourist attraction, is left penniless when her son 'disappears with her money'

    Versus this:


    The Dionne Quintuplets were taken away from their parents and became wards of the Canadian Government, by whom they were exploited and displayed in a public museum.

    The Secret Quintuplets – After seeing the media storm that surrounded the Dionne Quints Senor Franco Diligenti and his opera singer wife, Ana Aversano quietly had a set of quints that he kept secret from the world for 8 months. The wealthy father even went as far as having the babies delivered at home with the help of a midwife sworn to secrecy and registered with the government at different city offices throughout Buenos Aires.

    The Diligenti Quintuplets each went their own separate ways and have remained out of the public eye as adults. The two boys, Carlos Alberto and Franco, each went to school in Canada, and Maria Cristina went to live in Rome as a young adult, while Maria Fernanda and Maria Ester remained in Buenos Aires, marrying at ages 19 and 16, respectively. The Dilligenti Quints will turn 63 each on July 15, 2006 and are the world’s oldest living set of quints.

    https://www.growingyourbaby.com/famous-multiple-births/
     

    But then, wasn't Argentina richer in the past than today?


    https://i.pinimg.com/originals/a4/34/56/a43456d8f415854d4d396c904b246c84.jpg

  23. Betting on a false flag implicating Iran in Biden’s second year in office.

    • Agree: Thoughts
    • Replies: @Thoughts
    @Anon

    This. This. and This.

    The only thing on my mind....

    Assad and his wife are toast as well

    I always thought liberal non-Jewish women were anti-War...but the whole bossy, telling people how to live their lives, wear the F***ing Mask!!...fits perfectly into the 'Let's Kill People' Mentality

  24. Charming idea but clearly impossible in our hyperpolarized society.

  25. It certainly may be a wonderful achievement if the vaccine is “safe and effective”.

    I’m not “anti vaccine”. I get the flu shot every year.

    But given the choice between a new vaccine for a flu-like disease with a survival rate of 99.9% plus and going without, I will go without. Maybe in a few years after all the Biden voters (people who actually fear the Wuhan Red Death) have willingly taken the vaccine and we have a safety record that we can rely on, then maybe.

    Of course by then the CCP will have released SARS-Cov-3. And if Trump is still in office the blue states will lockdown again and if Biden nothing will be said or done, like the Press and the Managerial State did with the Swine Flu under Obama. And if Biden is in office, the CCP won’t need to release an engineered virus to cripple America. It will have voluntarily made itself a peon of China.

  26. @Buzz Mohawk
    ... and Steve Sailer.

    Whichever vaccine it is, it really should go first (and perhaps only) to people who actually are at risk from this and all other corona viruses: the elderly and people with serious health problems or susceptibilities.

    The rest of us should go on with our lives -- and should have been allowed to from the beginning of this hysteria.

    Also, it's really funny how presidents and such get credit or blame when things they really have little to do with go well or badly. Sure, Trump approved an accelerated plan and the corresponding $billions and coordination with Big Pharma, but, like JFK, he didn't exactly build a Saturn V and fly to the moon -- nor could any other president have.

    Same goes for the way presidents either take credit or blame for massive economies that they can't and don't control.

    But people need kings, gods and heroes to displace things onto, apparently.

    Replies: @Joe Stalin, @res, @DRA

    No JFK signature. If it was my decision, I would have had Wernher von Braun pen some words and put his name on it as he alone set it all into motion.

  27. @AnotherDad
    @candid_observer

    The politics around the vaccine are pretty confused--especially for the Democrats.


    The Democrats--to get Trump, love of state power and because they are the more feminized party--have gone a bit hysterical on the Xi virus.

    But none of their program of lockdowns, social distancing, masks everywhere makes any sense unless you quickly get a vaccine.

    If you quickly get a vaccine then you can say "hey, we generated a steep recession and took away everyone's freedom for a few months ... but that saved a lot of lives!" (How effective this stuff has actually been is up in the air.)

    But if you are not on a path to quickly get a vaccine, then these measures make absolutely no sense. They are clearly unsustainable long term. People will find them wildly over-the-top for the actual threat. And the long term "no vaccine" strategy would be almost precisely the reverse: let the young and healthy quickly get infected while isolating the elderly, to build up "herd immunity" and make Xi virus a manageable "elderly protection" problem.


    In contrast, the Republican/"overblown" position is more or less internally consistent. "Bad but tolerable. Don't blow up the world. Don't impose your police state. Just get on with life."

    One can only assume the incoherence of the Democratic position on vaccines boils down to ... get Trump! But i have to note that their sheer love of the state bossing people around seems to be deeply felt as well.

    Replies: @candid_observer, @Mr. Anon

    I think that the current open question for the Democrats will be: how many people, and what types of people, have to be inoculated before we can stop lockdowns and other measures?

    The lower and lower the risk of the unvaccinated population getting a serious case of Covid, the more unjustifiable are the consequences of a lockdown. When do these tradeoffs finally work against lockdowns? I have to expect that the Dems and the media will gin up all possible hysteria about the dangers of covid to younger, healthier people so that the Dems will look like they are doing the right thing.

    One might expect that getting the vaccines to all of the elderly and those with risky conditions would do the trick. But I’m sure that won’t be how the decision will be made.

    • Replies: @Buzz Mohawk
    @candid_observer

    The lockdowns should never have happened, and they caused more damage than the virus itself would have.

    High on the list of damages is the implementation of mail-in voting, which elected the very politicians you are speculating about now.

    Replies: @candid_observer, @Charlotte

    , @candid_observer
    @candid_observer

    The number of the US population above 65 is about 40 million.

    https://www.infoplease.com/us/population/population-65-years-and-over-age-1990-2000-and-2010

    I gather that there will be enough doses for 40 million by the end of January of next year.

    I don't know how many immuno-compromised, or morbidly obese people are under 65 years, and it's not clear how much they are really at risk if they're under 65.

    Replies: @epebble, @S. Anonyia, @jon

  28. Whatever happened to Trump’s luck?

  29. @candid_observer
    @AnotherDad

    I think that the current open question for the Democrats will be: how many people, and what types of people, have to be inoculated before we can stop lockdowns and other measures?

    The lower and lower the risk of the unvaccinated population getting a serious case of Covid, the more unjustifiable are the consequences of a lockdown. When do these tradeoffs finally work against lockdowns? I have to expect that the Dems and the media will gin up all possible hysteria about the dangers of covid to younger, healthier people so that the Dems will look like they are doing the right thing.

    One might expect that getting the vaccines to all of the elderly and those with risky conditions would do the trick. But I'm sure that won't be how the decision will be made.

    Replies: @Buzz Mohawk, @candid_observer

    The lockdowns should never have happened, and they caused more damage than the virus itself would have.

    High on the list of damages is the implementation of mail-in voting, which elected the very politicians you are speculating about now.

    • Agree: Bernard
    • Replies: @candid_observer
    @Buzz Mohawk

    I'd guess that, at least to date, more voters favored lockdowns than opposed them.

    But this should turn around pretty quickly as the most vulnerable are inoculated. Yet I don't see the Dems, Biden in particular, changing course.

    I wouldn't be surprised if a lot of voters for Biden experience buyer's remorse before the package arrives Jan 20.

    Replies: @Mr. Anon

    , @Charlotte
    @Buzz Mohawk

    I have to wonder if the Democratic enthusiasm for lockdowns was ultimately due to enthusiasm for mail-in ballots. Maybe Trump should come out strongly in favor of mail-in ballots while assuring everyone there was absolutely nothing that could go wrong with that.

    Replies: @Mr. Anon

  30. Anonymous[424] • Disclaimer says:

    Absolutely retarded take. The vaccine is a fig leaf.

    Why did the Chinese fake symptoms of fainting in the street, after no other symptoms, conveniently caught on tape? That is not a symptom of COVID.
    Why didn’t China lock down other cities the way they locked down Wuhan? Why is there a bio lab in Wuhan? Who are the Americans working at that lab?

    Why did they put COVID patients in nursing homes and unnecessarily on ventilators? Why did the states inflate the numbers? Why did the government encourage massive super spreader riots where the super-spreading magically never appeared as if with some kind of divine protection?

    Why did Sweden fair no worse than any other country, even without lockdowns?

    The vaccine does nothing, it is to cover for the fact that the operation is over now. That is why they want to force it on people. Look at airlines, Ticketmaster and other international corporations for a clue. They need 90% administration to create the illusion that it was eradicated, when in fact, it never existed in the way they say. The tests were always totally inaccurate. Any COVID floating around after the vaccine push will just be labeled flu.

    People talk about a coming color revolution in the USA, but 2020 was the color revolution. If they can force you to throw away your whole life for a bad flu, nothing is off the table now. Climate change will be the impetus for similar draconian measures in the future, though that will not be the real purpose.

    American elites bought the Chinese virus and hyped it for their own gain- namely erasing Trump and Trumpsim, and terrorizing the public into fear and sheepish compliance.

    When Trump said it was a hoax, he was right. It was a bad flu that they overhyped and lied about. Trump should not claim the vaccine, he should drop the dime and all the documents on the whole thing.

    • Replies: @utu
    @Anonymous

    "American elites bought the Chinese virus and hyped it for their own gain- namely erasing Trump and Trumpism, and terrorizing the public into fear and sheepish compliance." - How much Italians were paid and by whom for being the most important player in this theater? Clearly Italy has a lot of acting talent to deploy tens of thousand of very convincing crisis actors. All of them as good as Marcello Mastroianni or Sophia Loren.

    https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=s2UhyLFy5DI

    And what about Israelis? Why did they do two lockdowns already? Was it to prevent the orthodox hasidim expressing their love Trump?

  31. Could ANY president we have had in the last thirty years have had 4 vaccines ready INSIDE of a year………rhetorical question …..the answer…. no.

  32. @candid_observer
    I think your idea of having some sort of public demonstration of celebrities taking the vaccine is actually an excellent one. The timing and selection of them, though, should be careful, so that they fall into the segments of the population targeted at the time.

    There's a very real fear of taking the vaccine, and this would actually be a first rate public service announcement.

    Replies: @Alfa158, @Aardvark, @Lucius Somesuch

    Wouldn’t it make more sense for the elite to not take the vaccine, while forcing all the peasants to take it? That way our rulers don’t have to risk potential side effects from the vaccine, while the herd will develop immunity and so the disease will fade away.
    Same principle as clearing a minefield by forcing POWs and enemy civilians to walk across the field in front of you. The tough part is that you have to stay on top of the herd immunity by somehow making sure the millions of immigrants and visitors each year are vaccinated. Even if Biden opens the borders and legalizes all immigration it won’t be easy getting all the now legal immigrants to cooperate.

    • Replies: @James O'Meara
    @Alfa158

    That's not the narrative.

    Elites will "take" a phony, placebo injection. How would you tell?

    Hoi Polloi will get the "real" one, forcibly if necessary, and suffer the consequences, intended or not.

  33. @candid_observer
    @AnotherDad

    I think that the current open question for the Democrats will be: how many people, and what types of people, have to be inoculated before we can stop lockdowns and other measures?

    The lower and lower the risk of the unvaccinated population getting a serious case of Covid, the more unjustifiable are the consequences of a lockdown. When do these tradeoffs finally work against lockdowns? I have to expect that the Dems and the media will gin up all possible hysteria about the dangers of covid to younger, healthier people so that the Dems will look like they are doing the right thing.

    One might expect that getting the vaccines to all of the elderly and those with risky conditions would do the trick. But I'm sure that won't be how the decision will be made.

    Replies: @Buzz Mohawk, @candid_observer

    The number of the US population above 65 is about 40 million.

    https://www.infoplease.com/us/population/population-65-years-and-over-age-1990-2000-and-2010

    I gather that there will be enough doses for 40 million by the end of January of next year.

    I don’t know how many immuno-compromised, or morbidly obese people are under 65 years, and it’s not clear how much they are really at risk if they’re under 65.

    • Replies: @epebble
    @candid_observer

    By the time the vaccine is ready for wide distribution, we would have already reached herd immunity. Already, more than 10 million are known to be infected. The ones that are infected but didn't bother to get tested (because they are asymptomatic or mildly symptomatic or just don't care to stand in line from 5 a.m. to 4 p.m. in some far away place) is many times that, some have speculated it could be 10 times that. With the fast spread between now and January due to holiday travel and gatherings, we should reach herd immunity by the end of spring. Looking at New Jersey, a population fatality ratio of 0.2% seems to be the upper limit before herd immunity kicks in.

    https://www.washingtonpost.com/health/2020/06/25/coronavirus-cases-10-times-larger/

    Replies: @That Would Be Telling

    , @S. Anonyia
    @candid_observer

    Risk is incredibly low under 40, even for the fatties and immunocompromised. I know several very fat people in their late 20s/early 30s who had it and recovered with fewer problems than the flu.

    Between 40-65 the morbidly obese, people with kidney problems, diabetics, and cancer survivors are the only ones who need to worry.

    , @jon
    @candid_observer

    Here are some detailed obesity stats from the CDC (2018):


    Among men, the prevalence of obesity was 40.3% among those aged 20–39, 46.4% among those aged 40–59, and 42.2% among those aged 60 and over. Among women, the prevalence of obesity was 39.7% among those aged 20–39, 43.3% among those aged 40–59, and 43.3% among those aged 60 and over. None of the differences by age were significant.
     
    https://www.cdc.gov/nchs/products/databriefs/db360.htm
    Still need to figure out other high-risk groups, couldn't find anything on that with a quick search.
  34. But the announcement of a second successful vaccine in record time would be an impressive vindication of the Trump Administration’s determination to focus on removing regulatory roadblocks to development of a vaccine.

    You’d have to have some kind of argument showing how removing the regulations helped, and then not have some safety issue that the regulations would have prevented. Then Trump will be vindicated.

    Frankly, you telling me that Trump slashed regulations to ram this vaccine through personally makes me even less inclined to get it. Even without any regulatory changes, there’s going to be so much financial and political pressure to push these vaccines through that rational judgments about their safety will become next to impossible. I’m also in a very low risk group so I have the luxury of just forgoing the vaccine entirely. But it will be a very difficult decision for many people. Especially since all vaccines are subject to the free rider problem, where if enough other people get it you can just forgo it and not have to deal with any potential side effects.

    • Replies: @That Would Be Telling
    @Guy De Champlagne



    But the announcement of a second successful vaccine in record time would be an impressive vindication of the Trump Administration’s determination to focus on removing regulatory roadblocks to development of a vaccine.

     

    You’d have to have some kind of argument showing how removing the regulations helped
     
    Can anyone point to regulations that have been "removed?"

    By far the biggest thing Trump has done, beside constantly pushing, is Operation Warp Speed, a Manhattan Project style effort to manufacture millions of doses of vaccine candidates prior to our knowing if they're safe and effective (notably, Pfizer/BioNTech did not sign up for this, instead just a big purchase guarantee if they're ready by the end of the year).

    One thing being glossed over is that the regulatory process is just starting. This milestone by Pfizer/BioNTech? Only enough, after another week of safety data (enough people two months after one week after their second dose), to apply for an Emergency Use Authorization (EUA), a title I hope speaks for itself. It's not close to be approved for general populations, just initial high priority cohorts like those most likely to accidentally give it to the most vulnerable, and the most vulnerable. The process to approve it for the general population depends on watching the Phase 3 population for a while, and those first cohorts who get it.
  35. Anonymous[207] • Disclaimer says:

    Trump should invite to a White House Rose Garden ceremony various dignitaries to be inoculated on-screen with their choice of the Pfizer or Moderna vaccine such as Joe Biden, Ivanka Trump, Mike Pence, Kamala Harris, Nancy Pelosi, Mitch McConnell, John Roberts, Sonia Sotomayor, LeBron James, Tom Brady, Steven Spielberg, Christopher Nolan, and so forth.

    Yeah, and he should also pardon Snowden and Assange as a parting fuck you to the deep state peep state creep state system. But that’s for a different reality where he actually has brains in his head and balls in his sack. Looks like Steve’s doubling down on maintaining that fantasy and ignoring what the man is actually doing with his final time in office.

  36. Trump forcing Joe and Kamala to take the vaccine live on camera to “promote its safety with the public” would be a stroke of genius…..so of course it will never happen.

  37. “But the announcement of a second successful vaccine in record time would be an impressive vindication of the Trump Administration’s determination to focus on removing regulatory roadblocks to development of a vaccine.“

    And yet Joe Brainstem’s whole case for being elected, as evidenced by the constant harping of the debate moderators, was that Trump murdered 230,000 people and mishandled the pandemic. Not the Dem governors who put violent black felons with covid into convalescent homes where they beat frail old white men to death.

    Now it seems clear from stats that Joe’s victory margin came from mass cheating in Milwaukee, Detroit, Philly, and Atlanta, where election workers are overwhelmingly black. Nothing works better than the promise of a $350k reparations check to fix an election in these cities. But keep in mind that blacks won’t get the money unless Dems win both runoff elections in GA. Unless the GOP gets their shit together somehow, these elections will be stolen too. Blacks will get their checks to buy Rolls Royces, and Dems will pack the courts, pass amnesty, and give DC and puerto Rico statehood.

  38. @candid_observer
    @candid_observer

    The number of the US population above 65 is about 40 million.

    https://www.infoplease.com/us/population/population-65-years-and-over-age-1990-2000-and-2010

    I gather that there will be enough doses for 40 million by the end of January of next year.

    I don't know how many immuno-compromised, or morbidly obese people are under 65 years, and it's not clear how much they are really at risk if they're under 65.

    Replies: @epebble, @S. Anonyia, @jon

    By the time the vaccine is ready for wide distribution, we would have already reached herd immunity. Already, more than 10 million are known to be infected. The ones that are infected but didn’t bother to get tested (because they are asymptomatic or mildly symptomatic or just don’t care to stand in line from 5 a.m. to 4 p.m. in some far away place) is many times that, some have speculated it could be 10 times that. With the fast spread between now and January due to holiday travel and gatherings, we should reach herd immunity by the end of spring. Looking at New Jersey, a population fatality ratio of 0.2% seems to be the upper limit before herd immunity kicks in.

    https://www.washingtonpost.com/health/2020/06/25/coronavirus-cases-10-times-larger/

    • Replies: @That Would Be Telling
    @epebble


    By the time the vaccine is ready for wide distribution, we would have already reached herd immunity.
     
    Real world example of this happening with prior diseases?

    It's definitely possible, but it would only happen to diseases that die out on their own, a bit like original SARS where its lower infectivity and higher lethality made it less capable of spreading. With all the asymptomatic or nearly so COVID-19 cases, at least some of which drive symptomatic cases that are absent isolation better at spreading the virus, I'd say it's safer to bet this will always be with us like so many other diseases over millennia for which we have "eternal" vaccines (vs. for example the flu). Smallpox, which is thought to be roughly as infective (R0) as COVID-19, took a public health Maximum Effort to eradicate from the world. For something sandwiching the lethality of COVID-19 while being at the upper end of Ro estimates for COVID-19, perhaps look at rubella (German measles).
  39. I expect Biden to do all of the above. On Jan 20, he will announce the rollout of a vaccine, a stimulus check, and a partial lockdown. Declare WAR on Covid. And the Biden miracle will happen. because it was impossible for this thing to last much beyond a year.

  40. Trump should invite to a White House Rose Garden ceremony various dignitaries to be inoculated on-screen with their choice of the Pfizer or Moderna vaccine such as Joe Biden, Ivanka Trump, Mike Pence, Kamala Harris, Nancy Pelosi, Mitch McConnell, John Roberts, Sonia Sotomayor, LeBron James, Tom Brady, Steven Spielberg, Christopher Nolan, and so forth.

    And also Bill and Melinda Gates, Anthony Fauci, Alan Dershowitz, Michael Osterholm, and Klaus Schwab. And all of their children too.

  41. @candid_observer
    @candid_observer

    The number of the US population above 65 is about 40 million.

    https://www.infoplease.com/us/population/population-65-years-and-over-age-1990-2000-and-2010

    I gather that there will be enough doses for 40 million by the end of January of next year.

    I don't know how many immuno-compromised, or morbidly obese people are under 65 years, and it's not clear how much they are really at risk if they're under 65.

    Replies: @epebble, @S. Anonyia, @jon

    Risk is incredibly low under 40, even for the fatties and immunocompromised. I know several very fat people in their late 20s/early 30s who had it and recovered with fewer problems than the flu.

    Between 40-65 the morbidly obese, people with kidney problems, diabetics, and cancer survivors are the only ones who need to worry.

  42. The sentient cockroach twitched his antenna at his student: “And the effects of the poorly-tested mRNA vaccine were unexpected, wide-ranging and catastrophic. This was the extinction event that paved the way for us. And they did it to themselves.”

  43. If this had happened under Obama, they would have given him a second Nobel Prize, this time in medicine.

    • LOL: utu
  44. @AnotherDad
    @candid_observer

    The politics around the vaccine are pretty confused--especially for the Democrats.


    The Democrats--to get Trump, love of state power and because they are the more feminized party--have gone a bit hysterical on the Xi virus.

    But none of their program of lockdowns, social distancing, masks everywhere makes any sense unless you quickly get a vaccine.

    If you quickly get a vaccine then you can say "hey, we generated a steep recession and took away everyone's freedom for a few months ... but that saved a lot of lives!" (How effective this stuff has actually been is up in the air.)

    But if you are not on a path to quickly get a vaccine, then these measures make absolutely no sense. They are clearly unsustainable long term. People will find them wildly over-the-top for the actual threat. And the long term "no vaccine" strategy would be almost precisely the reverse: let the young and healthy quickly get infected while isolating the elderly, to build up "herd immunity" and make Xi virus a manageable "elderly protection" problem.


    In contrast, the Republican/"overblown" position is more or less internally consistent. "Bad but tolerable. Don't blow up the world. Don't impose your police state. Just get on with life."

    One can only assume the incoherence of the Democratic position on vaccines boils down to ... get Trump! But i have to note that their sheer love of the state bossing people around seems to be deeply felt as well.

    Replies: @candid_observer, @Mr. Anon

    If you quickly get a vaccine then you can say “hey, we generated a steep recession and took away everyone’s freedom for a few months … but that saved a lot of lives!” (How effective this stuff has actually been is up in the air.)

    It’s not up in the air. Lockdowns didn’t work. Lockdown regime is uncorrelated with death rate.

    But if you are not on a path to quickly get a vaccine, then these measures make absolutely no sense. They are clearly unsustainable long term. People will find them wildly over-the-top for the actual threat.

    People could have done that already, but they haven’t. And they are sustainable long term in a repressive police-state, which is where most of the western world is headed.

    • Replies: @Anonymous
    @Mr. Anon


    Lockdowns didn’t work. Lockdown regime is uncorrelated with death rate.
     
    Au contraire. Lockdowns are highly correlated with the death rate of SMALL AND MEDIUM BUSINESSES..
  45. @Alfa158
    @candid_observer

    Wouldn’t it make more sense for the elite to not take the vaccine, while forcing all the peasants to take it? That way our rulers don’t have to risk potential side effects from the vaccine, while the herd will develop immunity and so the disease will fade away.
    Same principle as clearing a minefield by forcing POWs and enemy civilians to walk across the field in front of you. The tough part is that you have to stay on top of the herd immunity by somehow making sure the millions of immigrants and visitors each year are vaccinated. Even if Biden opens the borders and legalizes all immigration it won’t be easy getting all the now legal immigrants to cooperate.

    Replies: @James O'Meara

    That’s not the narrative.

    Elites will “take” a phony, placebo injection. How would you tell?

    Hoi Polloi will get the “real” one, forcibly if necessary, and suffer the consequences, intended or not.

  46. @Achmed E. Newman

    It ought to be important to Donald Trump that his administration be remembered for doing an impressive amount to solve the pandemic of 2020-2021 by speeding the approval of vaccines.
     
    Not really. You know that the official narrative is Orange Man = Hitler and that no good deed of his will go unpunished.

    Secondly, those who want it to feel good about themselves can take the vaccine, and those who don't will have to eventually fight off an attempt to make it mandatory, while in the meantime, this virus mutates, creates immunity, and tails off like all the rest have. About the only think I care about regarding a vaccine is that maybe Big Gov and Bid Ed and the Lyin' Press Infotainment will lay off with the pushing of the face diapering.

    I kind of doubt that though, as they really like being able to pick out non-conformists by eye and with the digital facial recognition. Those with the masks on are free to peacefully protest and carjack at will. There is nothing to see there, Comrade.

    Replies: @Stan d Mute, @That Would Be Telling

    Those with the masks on are free to peacefully protest and carjack at will.

    They’ll be hollering that face masks are the mark of evil if Trump’s base takes the streets in the next few weeks.

  47. @Buzz Mohawk
    @candid_observer

    The lockdowns should never have happened, and they caused more damage than the virus itself would have.

    High on the list of damages is the implementation of mail-in voting, which elected the very politicians you are speculating about now.

    Replies: @candid_observer, @Charlotte

    I’d guess that, at least to date, more voters favored lockdowns than opposed them.

    But this should turn around pretty quickly as the most vulnerable are inoculated. Yet I don’t see the Dems, Biden in particular, changing course.

    I wouldn’t be surprised if a lot of voters for Biden experience buyer’s remorse before the package arrives Jan 20.

    • Replies: @Mr. Anon
    @candid_observer


    I’d guess that, at least to date, more voters favored lockdowns than opposed them.
     
    Voters in blue areas, not red. More evidence, if more were needed, that we can't share a country with these people.
  48. Trump ought to make Andrew Cuomo get one on the White House lawn before delivering the vaccine to his state.

  49. @candid_observer
    @candid_observer

    The number of the US population above 65 is about 40 million.

    https://www.infoplease.com/us/population/population-65-years-and-over-age-1990-2000-and-2010

    I gather that there will be enough doses for 40 million by the end of January of next year.

    I don't know how many immuno-compromised, or morbidly obese people are under 65 years, and it's not clear how much they are really at risk if they're under 65.

    Replies: @epebble, @S. Anonyia, @jon

    Here are some detailed obesity stats from the CDC (2018):

    Among men, the prevalence of obesity was 40.3% among those aged 20–39, 46.4% among those aged 40–59, and 42.2% among those aged 60 and over. Among women, the prevalence of obesity was 39.7% among those aged 20–39, 43.3% among those aged 40–59, and 43.3% among those aged 60 and over. None of the differences by age were significant.

    https://www.cdc.gov/nchs/products/databriefs/db360.htm
    Still need to figure out other high-risk groups, couldn’t find anything on that with a quick search.

  50. How unfair of you, Steve. Expecting our Leaders to lead.

  51. The national and international “public health community” started gearing up to weaponize “public health” against their own populations twenty years ago. We are seeing the fruition of it now. “Keeping us safe” always means surveiling us, locking us down, intruding themselves into our lives. By giving in this this first time, we will never be rid of it. What about the next pandemic, which Bill Gates already gleefully predicts?

    What if they institute mandatory testing for everyone, essentially all the time? Think about it – that swab they jab up your nose doesn’t just collect virons, it collects YOUR DNA. This will allow them to create a global DNA registry of virtually every citizen subject. It’ll be alot harder to commit crimes in the future. And there will be alot more things that are criminal, including things that are legal and commonplace today, like speaking your mind.

    We’ve been told by the media – harangued actually – that COVID-19 is damned near the worst thing that ever happened. In truth, it isn’t much different than the Asian Flu of 1957/58; the World did not imprison and impoverish itself in responding to that. In some ways, the Asian Flu was a lot worse. COVID mostly kills the old and infirm, whereas over 40% of those killed by the Asian Flu were children less than five years old.

    This pandemic is being used, or was caused (that is not an impossibility), to enslave the World for the benefit of the global overlord class.

    But on your bracelet, slave:

    https://www.zerohedge.com/political/government-advisers-suggest-giving-covid-free-brits-permission-wristbands

    • Replies: @utu
    @Mr. Anon

    "In truth, it isn’t much different than the Asian Flu of 1957/58; the World did not imprison and impoverish itself in responding to that." - The second of your sentences invalidates the first. If we did not have lockdowns the death toll would be much greater by now, perhaps by an order of magnitude meaning that Asian Flu of 1957/58 (116k deaths in the US) was 10-20 times less lethal. And if you try to retort bringing up Sweden do not overlook the fact that NYS and UK have 6.5 and 11 times higher than the population density of Sweden, respectively.

    Replies: @Mr. Anon

    , @Anonymous
    @Mr. Anon


    The national and international “public health community” started gearing up to weaponize “public health” against their own populations twenty years ago. We are seeing the fruition of it now. “Keeping us safe” always means surveiling us, locking us down, intruding themselves into our lives.
     
    The apotheosis of the public health cult is mass euthanasia of the hoi polloi, perpetrated with sneering contempt on a cowed and unarmed populace by a hierarchy of ethnic "minority" commissars.

    "Health Commissioner Beria will see you now."

  52. @candid_observer
    @Buzz Mohawk

    I'd guess that, at least to date, more voters favored lockdowns than opposed them.

    But this should turn around pretty quickly as the most vulnerable are inoculated. Yet I don't see the Dems, Biden in particular, changing course.

    I wouldn't be surprised if a lot of voters for Biden experience buyer's remorse before the package arrives Jan 20.

    Replies: @Mr. Anon

    I’d guess that, at least to date, more voters favored lockdowns than opposed them.

    Voters in blue areas, not red. More evidence, if more were needed, that we can’t share a country with these people.

    • Agree: Achmed E. Newman
  53. The number one recipient of the both Pfizer and Moderna’s vaccine should Bill Gates.

    Mr “Decade of Vaccines” himself.

    Steve managed to leave out people of such dubious distinction like Soros, Bezos, Bloomberg, Jack Dorsey, Zuckerberg, Obama, Pelosi, Feinstein, and the remaining cast of characters known to inhabit the Death Star including Hillary.

    Of course, we all know, the anointed ones will only receive an injection of saline solution. Cause, well, you know “White Privilege”.

  54. 1. Vaccines as a rule do not work on the Elderly – the evidence for this is mountainous.

    2. No mRNA vaccine that has been developed or tested has yet been free of a very unfortunate side effect: Immunization against one strain of a virus, extreme susceptibility against other strains of a virus. Result: 100% death rate in immunized subjects.

    3. Mask don’t work, for real or imaginary viruses, evidence overwhelming, but now 85% of the population is wearing them. End result: lung cancer, tuberculosis, tooth decay/gum disease, permanent damage to lung and brain function.

    All this for an imaginary Cold Virus.

    When I pointed out that 80% of the Country had moved to a new address, the corner of hysterical coward and low grade moron, I actually misidentified the Street names.

    80% of you have moved to the corner of Insane and Satanic.

    • Replies: @Anonymous
    @theMann


    1. Vaccines as a rule do not work on the Elderly – the evidence for this is mountainous.

    2. No mRNA vaccine that has been developed or tested has yet been free of a very unfortunate side effect: Immunization against one strain of a virus, extreme susceptibility against other strains of a virus. Result: 100% death rate in immunized subjects.

    3. Mask don’t work, for real or imaginary viruses, evidence overwhelming, but now 85% of the population is wearing them. End result: lung cancer, tuberculosis, tooth decay/gum disease, permanent damage to lung and brain function.

    All this for an imaginary Cold Virus.
     
    Yet you provide NO citations, credible or otherwise, for your claims.

    Why don’t you crawl back to 4chan?
  55. @candid_observer
    I think your idea of having some sort of public demonstration of celebrities taking the vaccine is actually an excellent one. The timing and selection of them, though, should be careful, so that they fall into the segments of the population targeted at the time.

    There's a very real fear of taking the vaccine, and this would actually be a first rate public service announcement.

    Replies: @Alfa158, @Aardvark, @Lucius Somesuch

    For whichever list of the highfalutin they might settle on, it must include the über dick, Bill Gates.
    I want to see if he will take his own medicine… no placebo vials…

  56. @Sean

    They were, upon the whole, from the black day when they first entered Europe, the one great anti-human specimen of humanity. Wherever they went a broad line of blood marked the track behind them, and, as far as their dominion reached, civilization disappeared from view. (Bulgarian Horrors and the Question of the East, Gladstone (1876)
     

    Coronavirus: The married couple behind the successful Pfizer COVID vaccine.
    But while the vaccine has been bankrolled by the American pharmaceutical giant, the science itself is the work of BioNTech, a German company founded by married couple and dedicated physicians Ugur Sahin and Ozlem Tureci. Together, they are being hailed as the brains that allowed the potentially transformative coronavirus vaccine to come about.

    Scientists and entrepreneurs Professor Sahin, 55, and Dr Tureci, 53, are now among the 100 richest Germans, with the value of their company BioNTech soaring to $21bn (£16bn) in the wake of the vaccine breakthrough. Chief executive officer of BioNTech, Mr Sahin was born in the Turkish city of Iskenderun, moving to West Germany at four years old. Dr Tureci, who is the company's chief medical officer, was born in Germany and is the daughter of a Turkish physician who migrated to the country from Istanbul.
     

    The highest achievers in the professional-technical and civil service class of the West are immigrants or the children of immigrants, conforming to the pattern identified by Lewis in his book The Fifth Risk: Undoing Democracywhich is about how such folk seethed at having to (ostensibly it now seems) take orders from those appointed by anti-immigration and Muslim banning, Trump: his entitled rich kid son in law Kushner and other minions. They were supposed to supervise, but it is now apparent they lacked all capability to.

    Herman in his How the Scots Invented the Modern World mentions that their country was once the poorest in Europe, the era of invention by Scots is long gone, immigrant provide all the energy and it's connected with how it better to be a poor man in a rich country than a rich man in a poor one. No political leader could administer the tough love necessary to make downwardly mobile young American buck their ideas up Indeed there may be a biological explanation: intelligence is declining:-


    Dutton, E., D. van der Linden, and R. Lynn. (2016). The negative Flynn Effect: A systematic literature review. Intelligence 59: 163-169.
    https://www.gwern.net/docs/iq/2016-dutton.pdf
     
    Even in the most dysfunctional country there is a high IQ fraction and why would they not leave for the West and join Obama or Kamala (Obama may be doubtful for Lewis’s ‘first-generation Americans’, but no question Harris as the product of a union between a South Asian and an Afro -Caribbean both of who came to the US as adults, fits the bill). The trend is clear and will continue now. I expect America to be deluged by a tsunami of highly capable immigrants who will increasingly dominate the technical class administration as they already are beginning to in politics at the highest level (Britain is no different with the Mayor of London and two most senior cabinet ministers being South Asians) Nonwhite, new-American presidents are now a trend: Biden may be the last white man in the White House, quite possibly the last white for white women presidents are a step than has been jumped over entirely. Trump lost because so few of his supporters could be found among those doing and overseeing the actual scientific work that he was throwing money at. Harris's mother was a very accomplished biomedical scientist ...

    Replies: @Ponce Faggy, @Reg Cæsar

    tain is no different with the Mayor of London and two most senior cabinet ministers being South Asians’

    Coz BoJo is a useless, cosseted, upper class twit. He’s never met a working class White lad.

    • Replies: @Sean
    @Ponce Faggy

    Andrew 'Boris' Johnson was born in America. Churchill was born in Britain's only non royal palace as the grandson of 7th Duke of Marlborough, and his mother was American, so was MacMillan's.

    In May an infectious disease epidemiologist and a professor of theoretical epidemiology at the Department of Zoology, University of Oxford estimated the COVID-19 infection fatality rate as less than one in a thousand, and closer to one in ten thousand. Her name is Sunetra Gupta. What could Boris learn from a 'working class White lad'? Upward mobility is a myth: look at Johnson's ancestors
    https://www.findmypast.co.uk/blog/discoveries/boris-johnson-family


    http://content.time.com/time/health/article/0,8599,1932366,00.html
    In Germany, a Better Vaccine for Politicians?
    By Tristana Moore / Berlin Tuesday, Oct. 27, 2009

    Amid growing fears of a possible global flu pandemic, the German government prepared for its mass-vaccination campaign earlier this year by ordering 50 million doses of the Pandemrix vaccine, enough for a double dose for 25 million people, about a third of the population. The vaccine, manufactured by GlaxoSmithKline, contains an immunity-enhancing chemical compound, known as an adjuvant, whose side effects are not yet entirely known. Then, after a report was leaked to the German media last week, the Interior Ministry confirmed that it had ordered a different vaccine, Celvapan, for government officials and the military. Celvapan, which is made by U.S. pharmaceutical giant Baxter, does not contain an adjuvant and is believed to have fewer side effects than Pandemrix.
     

    Back in 2009 EthnoGermans had to turn to the US and their immigrant experts for vaccines, but now Germany has their own immigrants. All the West is the same. And these countries are going to successfully compete with China? Spengler was right.

    Replies: @utu

  57. @Anon

    Trump should invite to a White House Rose Garden ceremony various dignitaries to be inoculated ...
     
    This would be extra good if it broke some sort of regulation or "norm" that required vaccine be distributed in a certain way or be administered at certain places by certain people or something.

    Replies: @Buffalo Joe, @jamie b.

    ThreeEightSeven, Trump should be magnanimus and offer the first shots in the newly named “flower” garden, because rose is a color, to barack and michelle and eric holder and valery jarrett and kamala harris…you know, just common POCs.

  58. Come on Steve.. Are you really giving Trump credit for expediting the virus testing process? Like every country in the world already wasn’t doing that?

    Also phase 3 trials were exceptionally easy to run considering how infectious covid has been and they’ve been able to confirm efficacy much earlier than a normal vaccine.

  59. @Anon

    Trump should invite to a White House Rose Garden ceremony various dignitaries to be inoculated ...
     
    This would be extra good if it broke some sort of regulation or "norm" that required vaccine be distributed in a certain way or be administered at certain places by certain people or something.

    Replies: @Buffalo Joe, @jamie b.

    Why?

    • Replies: @Anon
    @jamie b.



    This would be extra good if it broke some sort of regulation or “norm” that required vaccine be distributed in a certain way or be administered at certain places by certain people or something.
     
    Why?
     
    Because it gives Trump another opportunity to flip off his pearl-clutching school marm enemies. I can see it now, CNN et al. spending hours with antiquarian commentary about how Trump is bypassing the CDC and breaking a norm set by Truman when the first polio vaccine shots were given at the Office of National Defense Malaria Control Activities, not the White House!
  60. @Buzz Mohawk
    @candid_observer

    The lockdowns should never have happened, and they caused more damage than the virus itself would have.

    High on the list of damages is the implementation of mail-in voting, which elected the very politicians you are speculating about now.

    Replies: @candid_observer, @Charlotte

    I have to wonder if the Democratic enthusiasm for lockdowns was ultimately due to enthusiasm for mail-in ballots. Maybe Trump should come out strongly in favor of mail-in ballots while assuring everyone there was absolutely nothing that could go wrong with that.

    • Replies: @Mr. Anon
    @Charlotte


    I have to wonder if the Democratic enthusiasm for lockdowns was ultimately due to enthusiasm for mail-in ballots. Maybe Trump should come out strongly in favor of mail-in ballots while assuring everyone there was absolutely nothing that could go wrong with that.
     
    Trump should use his last two months in office endorsing a variety of things. He should come out strongly in favor of brushing your teeth twice a day. By this time next year, liberals will all look like Shane McGowan. Trump should express his love of yoga, cabernet sauvignon, dogs, cats, gourmet coffee, and avocado toast. He should rave about his favorite TV shows: This is Us, A Handmaid's Tale, and Saturday Night Live.
  61. What did happen to the Israeli vaccine?

    Israeli scientists: ‘In a few weeks, we will have coronavirus vaccine’ (APRIL 13, 2020)
    https://www.jpost.com/health-science/israeli-scientists-in-three-weeks-we-will-have-coronavirus-vaccine-619101

    Israeli government research institute says tests of its COVID-19 vaccine have worked on hamsters (JUNE 22, 2020)
    https://www.jta.org/quick-reads

    Israel claims ‘excellent vaccine in hand’, set to start human trials (August 07, 2020)
    https://health.economictimes.indiatimes.com/news/pharma/israel-claims-excellent-vaccine-in-hand-set-to-start-human-trials/77404029

    First 2 volunteers injected with Israeli virus vaccine, kicking off human trials (1 November 2020)
    https://www.timesofisrael.com/first-2-volunteers-injected-with-israeli-virus-vaccine-kicking-off-human-trials/

    And yet

    Israel seals vaccine deal with Pfizer, amid signs pandemic spreading again (13 November 2020)
    https://www.timesofisrael.com/israel-seals-vaccine-deal-with-pfizer-amid-signs-pandemic-spreading-again/

    “PM says Israel will receive enough doses to inoculate 4 million Israelis…”

    “Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu on Friday announced that Israel signed a deal with Pfizer to purchase millions of coronavirus vaccine shots, days after the US pharmaceutical firm said data suggested the vaccine was 90 percent effective at preventing COVID-19.”

    “The report further said Israel will pay the NIS 120 million ($35 million) advance next week, and another NIS 680 million ($202 million) when the first vaccines arrive. Pfizer will then provide hundreds of thousands of vaccines every month for the duration of 2021.”

    This is about $59 per person for Pfizer.

    • Replies: @Wielgus
    @utu

    I read somewhere that it turned out to be a dud. I wouldn't get too excited yet about the Pfizer one or any others.

  62. @Anonymous
    Absolutely retarded take. The vaccine is a fig leaf.

    Why did the Chinese fake symptoms of fainting in the street, after no other symptoms, conveniently caught on tape? That is not a symptom of COVID.
    Why didn't China lock down other cities the way they locked down Wuhan? Why is there a bio lab in Wuhan? Who are the Americans working at that lab?

    Why did they put COVID patients in nursing homes and unnecessarily on ventilators? Why did the states inflate the numbers? Why did the government encourage massive super spreader riots where the super-spreading magically never appeared as if with some kind of divine protection?

    Why did Sweden fair no worse than any other country, even without lockdowns?

    The vaccine does nothing, it is to cover for the fact that the operation is over now. That is why they want to force it on people. Look at airlines, Ticketmaster and other international corporations for a clue. They need 90% administration to create the illusion that it was eradicated, when in fact, it never existed in the way they say. The tests were always totally inaccurate. Any COVID floating around after the vaccine push will just be labeled flu.

    People talk about a coming color revolution in the USA, but 2020 was the color revolution. If they can force you to throw away your whole life for a bad flu, nothing is off the table now. Climate change will be the impetus for similar draconian measures in the future, though that will not be the real purpose.

    American elites bought the Chinese virus and hyped it for their own gain- namely erasing Trump and Trumpsim, and terrorizing the public into fear and sheepish compliance.

    When Trump said it was a hoax, he was right. It was a bad flu that they overhyped and lied about. Trump should not claim the vaccine, he should drop the dime and all the documents on the whole thing.

    Replies: @utu

    “American elites bought the Chinese virus and hyped it for their own gain- namely erasing Trump and Trumpism, and terrorizing the public into fear and sheepish compliance.” – How much Italians were paid and by whom for being the most important player in this theater? Clearly Italy has a lot of acting talent to deploy tens of thousand of very convincing crisis actors. All of them as good as Marcello Mastroianni or Sophia Loren.

    And what about Israelis? Why did they do two lockdowns already? Was it to prevent the orthodox hasidim expressing their love Trump?

  63. @Mr. Anon
    The national and international "public health community" started gearing up to weaponize "public health" against their own populations twenty years ago. We are seeing the fruition of it now. "Keeping us safe" always means surveiling us, locking us down, intruding themselves into our lives. By giving in this this first time, we will never be rid of it. What about the next pandemic, which Bill Gates already gleefully predicts?

    What if they institute mandatory testing for everyone, essentially all the time? Think about it - that swab they jab up your nose doesn't just collect virons, it collects YOUR DNA. This will allow them to create a global DNA registry of virtually every citizen subject. It'll be alot harder to commit crimes in the future. And there will be alot more things that are criminal, including things that are legal and commonplace today, like speaking your mind.

    We've been told by the media - harangued actually - that COVID-19 is damned near the worst thing that ever happened. In truth, it isn't much different than the Asian Flu of 1957/58; the World did not imprison and impoverish itself in responding to that. In some ways, the Asian Flu was a lot worse. COVID mostly kills the old and infirm, whereas over 40% of those killed by the Asian Flu were children less than five years old.

    This pandemic is being used, or was caused (that is not an impossibility), to enslave the World for the benefit of the global overlord class.

    But on your bracelet, slave:

    https://www.zerohedge.com/political/government-advisers-suggest-giving-covid-free-brits-permission-wristbands

    Replies: @utu, @Anonymous

    “In truth, it isn’t much different than the Asian Flu of 1957/58; the World did not imprison and impoverish itself in responding to that.” – The second of your sentences invalidates the first. If we did not have lockdowns the death toll would be much greater by now, perhaps by an order of magnitude meaning that Asian Flu of 1957/58 (116k deaths in the US) was 10-20 times less lethal. And if you try to retort bringing up Sweden do not overlook the fact that NYS and UK have 6.5 and 11 times higher than the population density of Sweden, respectively.

    • Replies: @Mr. Anon
    @utu


    The second of your sentences invalidates the first. If we did not have lockdowns the death toll would be much greater by now, perhaps by an order of magnitude meaning that Asian Flu of 1957/58 (116k deaths in the US) was 10-20 times less lethal.
     
    Utter nonsense. The lockdowns did not work.

    And if you try to retort bringing up Sweden do not overlook the fact that NYS and UK have 6.5 and 11 times higher than the population density of Sweden, respectively.
     
    Japan didn't have much of a lockdown, just the normal sort of things that sensible countries, like Sweden and like the US in years past, typically do. They have a very high population density too. Yes, I'm sure the Caribou of northern Sweden were relatively untouched by COVID, but the Somalis in Stockholm were not so lucky. Most of the deaths have been in urban areas. And while population density of New York, the UK, and Sweden may be quite different, the population density of those countries urban areas isn't so different.

    Again, hide in a hidey-hole if you are so terrifed. Nobody is stopping you. Leave the rest of us out of your fearful delusions.

    Replies: @utu, @Travis

  64. @SteveSailer I know that you’ve tracked the marvelous McCaffreys. Dave Sime’s grandson got his first win as a starting quarterback when the redshirt freshman led the Nebraska Cornhuskers to a win over Penn State.

  65. Anonymous[413] • Disclaimer says:
    @415 reasons
    It will also work. I would be surprised if the actual efficacy (of both Pfizer and Moderna’s vaccines) isn’t more like 95-97%. Almost everyone who got these vaccines in early phase trials got highly neutralizing antibodies. Highly neutralizing antibodies protect humans from COVID. This has been known for months which makes the wait to roll them out frustrating. We won’t have years of safety follow up anyways. We need to take a calculated risk as a societal or at last let individuals take a calculated risk: resuming normal activities and not getting COVID is worth the remote risk of some long term, rare side effect of getting a two-time injection with mRNA. To me it’s an absolute no brained and I would take it tomorrow if I could.

    I live in a relatively low prevalence area and am young enough that I would probably be fine if I got COVID so this is more of an annoyance than a true burden, but the way liberals have been or pretended to have been so frightened of a vaccine has been craven, stupid and shameful. At the beginning of the pandemic I thought the “the libs love lockdowns for their own sake” argument was overwrought but now I think it’s absolutely true. They don’t really want a solution to the pandemic, they want a way to wear the hair shirt and virtue signal more intensely than ever by making it virtuous to be pathologically housebound and pathological to want to engage in the normal activities of life.

    Replies: @Anonymous, @reactionry, @Libre

    At the beginning of the pandemic I thought the “the libs love lockdowns for their own sake” argument was overwrought but now I think it’s absolutely true. They don’t really want a solution to the pandemic, they want a way to wear the hair shirt and virtue signal more intensely than ever.

    No. What they really wanted was to defeat Donald Trump.

    • Replies: @415 reasons
    @Anonymous

    Yet here we are post election and the vaccine has proved efficacious and the line still want Donald Trump’s FDA to wait another month for useless safety data that will prove nothing about long term rare side effects while 1000+ people die per day. They’re talking about a 6 week lockdown after Biden takes office! First of all the cases will, I guarantee, have peaked and started declining by late January if Europe is any guide. It’s not really seasonal. It’s about people’s behavior, in a regime with no behavioral changes at all it spreads pandemically year round that is already obvious. They’re saying we’ll have 20-40 million doses of the Pfizer vaccine by inauguration. Presumably the same number of doses of the Moderna one. Instead of talking national lockdowns we should be talking about getting every vulnerable person in the states with the worst outbreaks vaccinated before Inauguration Day. Biden’s not even mentioning that because they really seem to have a policy preference for non pharmaceutical interventions with huge cost and dubious benefit or this pharmaceutical intervention that will have an extremely low cost (very rare side effects years from now, possibly) and an incredibly dramatic benefit (can basically prevent all deaths in an area where it’s deployed starting a month after uptake).

    Replies: @That Would Be Telling

  66. @Bert
    That Emmanuel would be appointed to the Covid task force simply reinforces my conclusion that there was zero concern among high-level bureaucrats about deaths of the most vulnerable. The only thing worse than being a Deplorable is being an Expendable.

    Replies: @Buffalo Joe, @Jim Don Bob

    Bert, I am surprised that the whole obama administration isn’t on the Task Force, but soon they ALL will be part of biden-harris.

    • Replies: @J.Ross
    @Buffalo Joe

    Yes, it's one group, and after all Trump locked none of them up. We will see a return to the dysfunction, persecution and nightmare of Obama's second term. Heavily hyped wierdly executed mass shootings will precede nudging about ending the Constitution. Families and doctors will be encouraged to inform on people. Crime will rise and the lyingpress will scare boomers about non-violent virgins.

    Replies: @Buffalo Joe

  67. @candid_observer
    I think your idea of having some sort of public demonstration of celebrities taking the vaccine is actually an excellent one. The timing and selection of them, though, should be careful, so that they fall into the segments of the population targeted at the time.

    There's a very real fear of taking the vaccine, and this would actually be a first rate public service announcement.

    Replies: @Alfa158, @Aardvark, @Lucius Somesuch

    “Welcome to Hell, Blofeld.”

  68. Anon[387] • Disclaimer says:
    @jamie b.
    @Anon

    Why?

    Replies: @Anon

    This would be extra good if it broke some sort of regulation or “norm” that required vaccine be distributed in a certain way or be administered at certain places by certain people or something.

    Why?

    Because it gives Trump another opportunity to flip off his pearl-clutching school marm enemies. I can see it now, CNN et al. spending hours with antiquarian commentary about how Trump is bypassing the CDC and breaking a norm set by Truman when the first polio vaccine shots were given at the Office of National Defense Malaria Control Activities, not the White House!

  69. @Sean

    They were, upon the whole, from the black day when they first entered Europe, the one great anti-human specimen of humanity. Wherever they went a broad line of blood marked the track behind them, and, as far as their dominion reached, civilization disappeared from view. (Bulgarian Horrors and the Question of the East, Gladstone (1876)
     

    Coronavirus: The married couple behind the successful Pfizer COVID vaccine.
    But while the vaccine has been bankrolled by the American pharmaceutical giant, the science itself is the work of BioNTech, a German company founded by married couple and dedicated physicians Ugur Sahin and Ozlem Tureci. Together, they are being hailed as the brains that allowed the potentially transformative coronavirus vaccine to come about.

    Scientists and entrepreneurs Professor Sahin, 55, and Dr Tureci, 53, are now among the 100 richest Germans, with the value of their company BioNTech soaring to $21bn (£16bn) in the wake of the vaccine breakthrough. Chief executive officer of BioNTech, Mr Sahin was born in the Turkish city of Iskenderun, moving to West Germany at four years old. Dr Tureci, who is the company's chief medical officer, was born in Germany and is the daughter of a Turkish physician who migrated to the country from Istanbul.
     

    The highest achievers in the professional-technical and civil service class of the West are immigrants or the children of immigrants, conforming to the pattern identified by Lewis in his book The Fifth Risk: Undoing Democracywhich is about how such folk seethed at having to (ostensibly it now seems) take orders from those appointed by anti-immigration and Muslim banning, Trump: his entitled rich kid son in law Kushner and other minions. They were supposed to supervise, but it is now apparent they lacked all capability to.

    Herman in his How the Scots Invented the Modern World mentions that their country was once the poorest in Europe, the era of invention by Scots is long gone, immigrant provide all the energy and it's connected with how it better to be a poor man in a rich country than a rich man in a poor one. No political leader could administer the tough love necessary to make downwardly mobile young American buck their ideas up Indeed there may be a biological explanation: intelligence is declining:-


    Dutton, E., D. van der Linden, and R. Lynn. (2016). The negative Flynn Effect: A systematic literature review. Intelligence 59: 163-169.
    https://www.gwern.net/docs/iq/2016-dutton.pdf
     
    Even in the most dysfunctional country there is a high IQ fraction and why would they not leave for the West and join Obama or Kamala (Obama may be doubtful for Lewis’s ‘first-generation Americans’, but no question Harris as the product of a union between a South Asian and an Afro -Caribbean both of who came to the US as adults, fits the bill). The trend is clear and will continue now. I expect America to be deluged by a tsunami of highly capable immigrants who will increasingly dominate the technical class administration as they already are beginning to in politics at the highest level (Britain is no different with the Mayor of London and two most senior cabinet ministers being South Asians) Nonwhite, new-American presidents are now a trend: Biden may be the last white man in the White House, quite possibly the last white for white women presidents are a step than has been jumped over entirely. Trump lost because so few of his supporters could be found among those doing and overseeing the actual scientific work that he was throwing money at. Harris's mother was a very accomplished biomedical scientist ...

    Replies: @Ponce Faggy, @Reg Cæsar

    …immigrant provide all the energy and it’s connected with how it better to be a poor man in a rich country than a rich man in a poor one.

    But is it? Compare the lives of the Dionne quintuplets in Canada with those of the wealthy Diligentis in Buenos Aires.

    World’s first surviving quintuplet, 82, who shared $3million settlement with her siblings after being taken from their family and turned into a tourist attraction, is left penniless when her son ‘disappears with her money’

    Versus this:

    The Dionne Quintuplets were taken away from their parents and became wards of the Canadian Government, by whom they were exploited and displayed in a public museum.

    The Secret Quintuplets – After seeing the media storm that surrounded the Dionne Quints Senor Franco Diligenti and his opera singer wife, Ana Aversano quietly had a set of quints that he kept secret from the world for 8 months. The wealthy father even went as far as having the babies delivered at home with the help of a midwife sworn to secrecy and registered with the government at different city offices throughout Buenos Aires.

    The Diligenti Quintuplets each went their own separate ways and have remained out of the public eye as adults. The two boys, Carlos Alberto and Franco, each went to school in Canada, and Maria Cristina went to live in Rome as a young adult, while Maria Fernanda and Maria Ester remained in Buenos Aires, marrying at ages 19 and 16, respectively. The Dilligenti Quints will turn 63 each on July 15, 2006 and are the world’s oldest living set of quints.

    https://www.growingyourbaby.com/famous-multiple-births/

    But then, wasn’t Argentina richer in the past than today?

  70. @Ponce Faggy
    @Sean

    tain is no different with the Mayor of London and two most senior cabinet ministers being South Asians'

    Coz BoJo is a useless, cosseted, upper class twit. He's never met a working class White lad.

    Replies: @Sean

    Andrew ‘Boris’ Johnson was born in America. Churchill was born in Britain’s only non royal palace as the grandson of 7th Duke of Marlborough, and his mother was American, so was MacMillan’s.

    In May an infectious disease epidemiologist and a professor of theoretical epidemiology at the Department of Zoology, University of Oxford estimated the COVID-19 infection fatality rate as less than one in a thousand, and closer to one in ten thousand. Her name is Sunetra Gupta. What could Boris learn from a ‘working class White lad’? Upward mobility is a myth: look at Johnson’s ancestors
    https://www.findmypast.co.uk/blog/discoveries/boris-johnson-family

    http://content.time.com/time/health/article/0,8599,1932366,00.html
    In Germany, a Better Vaccine for Politicians?
    By Tristana Moore / Berlin Tuesday, Oct. 27, 2009

    Amid growing fears of a possible global flu pandemic, the German government prepared for its mass-vaccination campaign earlier this year by ordering 50 million doses of the Pandemrix vaccine, enough for a double dose for 25 million people, about a third of the population. The vaccine, manufactured by GlaxoSmithKline, contains an immunity-enhancing chemical compound, known as an adjuvant, whose side effects are not yet entirely known. Then, after a report was leaked to the German media last week, the Interior Ministry confirmed that it had ordered a different vaccine, Celvapan, for government officials and the military. Celvapan, which is made by U.S. pharmaceutical giant Baxter, does not contain an adjuvant and is believed to have fewer side effects than Pandemrix.

    Back in 2009 EthnoGermans had to turn to the US and their immigrant experts for vaccines, but now Germany has their own immigrants. All the West is the same. And these countries are going to successfully compete with China? Spengler was right.

    • Replies: @utu
    @Sean

    "In May an infectious disease epidemiologist and a professor of theoretical epidemiology at the Department of Zoology, University of Oxford estimated the COVID-19 infection fatality rate as less than one in a thousand, and closer to one in ten thousand. Her name is Sunetra Gupta. " - Estimate? No, she assumed that value as an input parameter to her model to get results that people who she worked for wanted. Her paper was a part of the last ditch effort of the ' herd immunity crowd' to stop the countermeasures and lockdown.


    Oxford Model Touting ‘Herd Immunity’ was Promoted by PR Agency Tied to Ministry of Defence and Nudge Unit
    https://bylinetimes.com/2020/03/26/the-coronavirus-crisis-oxford-model-touting-herd-immunity-was-promoted-by-pr-agency-tied-to-ministry-of-defence-and-nudge-unit/
     

    Behavioural Scientists told Government to use ‘Herd Immunity’ to Justify Business-As-Usual https://bylinetimes.com/2020/03/23/covid-19-special-investigation-part-three-behavioural-scientists-told-government-to-use-herd-immunity-to-justify-business-as-usual/
     
    The PR firm with ties to MoD and SAGE gets the editor of the FT on the phone who enthusiastically writes on March 24 about the news according to Gupta:

    Coronavirus may have infected half of UK population — Oxford study. (March 24)
    https://www.ft.com/content/5ff6469a-6dd8-11ea-89df-41bea055720b
     
    Many experts object:

    expert reaction to unpublished paper modelling what percentage of the UK population may have been exposed to COVID-19
    https://www.sciencemediacentre.org/expert-reaction-to-unpublished-paper-modelling-what-percentage-of-the-uk-population-may-have-been-exposed-to-covid-19/
     
    and the FT gets skeptical:

    Why it’s too tempting to believe the Oxford study on coronavirus (March 27)
    https://www.ft.com/content/14df8908-6f47-11ea-9bca-bf503995cd6f
     
    which is followed by a critical letter from six epidemiology professors several days later:

    Letter: The Oxford study figure has no empirical justification. (March 30)
    https://www.ft.com/content/ebab9fcc-6e8d-11ea-9bca-bf503995cd6f
     
    Sunetra Gupta destroyed her reputation.

    https://twitter.com/econhedge/status/1316284836278042624

    Replies: @Mr. Anon

  71. @Buffalo Joe
    @Bert

    Bert, I am surprised that the whole obama administration isn't on the Task Force, but soon they ALL will be part of biden-harris.

    Replies: @J.Ross

    Yes, it’s one group, and after all Trump locked none of them up. We will see a return to the dysfunction, persecution and nightmare of Obama’s second term. Heavily hyped wierdly executed mass shootings will precede nudging about ending the Constitution. Families and doctors will be encouraged to inform on people. Crime will rise and the lyingpress will scare boomers about non-violent virgins.

    • Replies: @Buffalo Joe
    @J.Ross

    J, very nice comment. thank you for the reply.

  72. OT. A little break from the seriousness of these soul-crushing times….

    A song dedicated on behalf of every man here to the light of his life, these lovely European women bejeweled by flowers, seen not as bearers of an evil apple , but of a beauty which inspires all of us. Europe forever.

    • Replies: @Diversity Heretic
    @ThreeCranes

    Thanks! One of my favorite songs from the 1960s.

  73. @utu
    @Mr. Anon

    "In truth, it isn’t much different than the Asian Flu of 1957/58; the World did not imprison and impoverish itself in responding to that." - The second of your sentences invalidates the first. If we did not have lockdowns the death toll would be much greater by now, perhaps by an order of magnitude meaning that Asian Flu of 1957/58 (116k deaths in the US) was 10-20 times less lethal. And if you try to retort bringing up Sweden do not overlook the fact that NYS and UK have 6.5 and 11 times higher than the population density of Sweden, respectively.

    Replies: @Mr. Anon

    The second of your sentences invalidates the first. If we did not have lockdowns the death toll would be much greater by now, perhaps by an order of magnitude meaning that Asian Flu of 1957/58 (116k deaths in the US) was 10-20 times less lethal.

    Utter nonsense. The lockdowns did not work.

    And if you try to retort bringing up Sweden do not overlook the fact that NYS and UK have 6.5 and 11 times higher than the population density of Sweden, respectively.

    Japan didn’t have much of a lockdown, just the normal sort of things that sensible countries, like Sweden and like the US in years past, typically do. They have a very high population density too. Yes, I’m sure the Caribou of northern Sweden were relatively untouched by COVID, but the Somalis in Stockholm were not so lucky. Most of the deaths have been in urban areas. And while population density of New York, the UK, and Sweden may be quite different, the population density of those countries urban areas isn’t so different.

    Again, hide in a hidey-hole if you are so terrifed. Nobody is stopping you. Leave the rest of us out of your fearful delusions.

    • Replies: @utu
    @Mr. Anon

    "The lockdowns did not work." - No, they did. It worked in Norway. As of today Norway has 11.3 times lower deaths per capita than Sweden: 11.3 times lower 11.3 times lower 11.3 times lower 11.3 times lower

    "Japan didn’t have much of a lockdown" - Japanese behave under their 'no lockdown' better than Americans under their 'lockdown'. Universal masking makes a big difference and finally Japan's excellent track and trace system going back to the 1950s is very effective at low infection rates. The reason EU countries squandered the initial success of lockdowns during the first wave is because they did not follow up with efficient track and trace system once they lowered infection rates down to manageable levels.

    Replies: @Mr. Anon

    , @Travis
    @Mr. Anon

    Correct , The lockdowns did little to reduce COVID deaths.

    New Jersey is a good example, the schools, churches, restaurants were all shout down by March 15.....yet hospitalizations peaked 5 weeks after the lockdowns and deaths peaked 6 weeks after the lockdowns. The lockdowns did not prevent people from getting coronavirus.

    New Jersey had 15,000 COVID deaths while Sweden had just 6,100 COVID deaths so far. Sweden's population is 12% greater than NJ , yet New Jersey has 150% more COVOD deaths than Sweden

  74. The effectiveness of vaccines against Covid in the group most at risk of death from it — the old, sickly, and weak — is likely to be low.

    • Agree: Sean
    • Replies: @res
    @Jonathan Silber

    It might be better to focus vaccinations on caregivers (and visitors?) for the old and people with high social connectivity. Probably in addition to rather than instead of the people at high risk. The effectiveness is unlikely to be zero even if it is lower.

  75. Trump should invite to a White House Rose Garden ceremony various dignitaries to be inoculated on-screen with their choice of the Pfizer or Moderna vaccine such as Joe Biden, Ivanka Trump, Mike Pence, Kamala Harris, Nancy Pelosi, Mitch McConnell, John Roberts, Sonia Sotomayor, LeBron James, Tom Brady, Steven Spielberg, Christopher Nolan, and so forth.

    Instead use this –

    Trump should invite to a White House Rose Garden ceremony various dignitaries to be inoculated on-screen with their choice of the Pfizer or Moderna vaccine such as Joe Biden, Ivanka Trump, Mike Pence, Kamala Harris, Nancy Pelosi, Mitch McConnell, John Roberts, Sonia Sotomayor, LeBron James, Tom Brady, Steven Spielberg, Christopher Nolan, [Hubbub], and so forth.

    Thanks.

  76. @Charlotte
    @Buzz Mohawk

    I have to wonder if the Democratic enthusiasm for lockdowns was ultimately due to enthusiasm for mail-in ballots. Maybe Trump should come out strongly in favor of mail-in ballots while assuring everyone there was absolutely nothing that could go wrong with that.

    Replies: @Mr. Anon

    I have to wonder if the Democratic enthusiasm for lockdowns was ultimately due to enthusiasm for mail-in ballots. Maybe Trump should come out strongly in favor of mail-in ballots while assuring everyone there was absolutely nothing that could go wrong with that.

    Trump should use his last two months in office endorsing a variety of things. He should come out strongly in favor of brushing your teeth twice a day. By this time next year, liberals will all look like Shane McGowan. Trump should express his love of yoga, cabernet sauvignon, dogs, cats, gourmet coffee, and avocado toast. He should rave about his favorite TV shows: This is Us, A Handmaid’s Tale, and Saturday Night Live.

    • LOL: S. Anonyia
  77. In other news, the elderly nerd-punching Negro, formerly at large, has been apprehended by the NYPD:

    https://nypost.com/2020/11/14/suspect-in-custody-in-rick-moranis-assault/

  78. nobody is gonna remember anything except

    1) Trump was Hitler, if you’re a democrat
    2) Trump was robbed, if you’re a republican

  79. “Trump should”

    Trump should declassify everything.

    pardon all the good guys.

    fire all the bad hires and deep staters he can.

    pull all the troops out of every military base possible.

    not help, talk to, or even acknowledge the Biden Harris people. there should be zero interaction here and no smooth transition whatsoever. Donald Trump should never be seen in the same camera shot as Joe Biden ever again, should never talk to him or any of his people on the telephone, or assist the incoming administration in any way. JOE BIDEN HAD TRUMP SPIED ON. NEVER FORGET.

    screw doing anything with a vaccine. that’s a zero credit move. like trying to avoid the Democrats calling you a racist and a nazi by going all in on the Platinum Plan. they’ll give you no credit and call you a nazi anyway.

  80. @Diversity Heretic
    For those of us who remember the 1976 swine flu vaccination fiasco, the concept of mass inoculations with a minimaly-tested, rushed-to-production vaccine for a highly contagious, but not particularly lethal virus is very disturbing. And the fact that it isn't only a new vaccine, but a new type of vaccine that uses messenger RNA (whatever that is) makes me even more uneasy. (I've read that it actually makes a person a genetically modified organism, but don't have the scientific expertise to evaluate such a claim.) There's a reason that vaccine development often takes a while, such as evaluating the long-term side effects. This vaccination program has all the signs of a major health disaster. I'd prefer to take my chances with the virus and I'm in my seventh decade.

    Replies: @MB, @Deadite, @That Would Be Telling

    Agreed.

    The only vaccine really needed has been one in regard to all the panic and pandemonium surrounding a nasty respiratory virus that is not and never has been the Second Coming of the Black Plague like our handlers have repeatedly told us.

    The Diamond Princess cruise ship and the USS Roosevelt made that perfectly clear to anybody that has seen one of these psy ops before.

    But the Mask Hysteria will continue until the masses get their placebo/pacifier.
    Everybody is infected until they are “proven” healthy or take the vaccine.

    No, thank you.

  81. Steve, write a column to help promote new media. We need to join the boycott of Big Tech and Corporate Media. Urge your readers to dump Twitter/FB for Gab.com, where Trump now regularly posts, and dump Fox News for NewsMax TV,

    https://www.newsmaxtv.com/ !!

  82. @415 reasons
    It will also work. I would be surprised if the actual efficacy (of both Pfizer and Moderna’s vaccines) isn’t more like 95-97%. Almost everyone who got these vaccines in early phase trials got highly neutralizing antibodies. Highly neutralizing antibodies protect humans from COVID. This has been known for months which makes the wait to roll them out frustrating. We won’t have years of safety follow up anyways. We need to take a calculated risk as a societal or at last let individuals take a calculated risk: resuming normal activities and not getting COVID is worth the remote risk of some long term, rare side effect of getting a two-time injection with mRNA. To me it’s an absolute no brained and I would take it tomorrow if I could.

    I live in a relatively low prevalence area and am young enough that I would probably be fine if I got COVID so this is more of an annoyance than a true burden, but the way liberals have been or pretended to have been so frightened of a vaccine has been craven, stupid and shameful. At the beginning of the pandemic I thought the “the libs love lockdowns for their own sake” argument was overwrought but now I think it’s absolutely true. They don’t really want a solution to the pandemic, they want a way to wear the hair shirt and virtue signal more intensely than ever by making it virtuous to be pathologically housebound and pathological to want to engage in the normal activities of life.

    Replies: @Anonymous, @reactionry, @Libre

    Thoroughly Modern Mengele?

    I haven’t subscribed to the New England Journal of Mengele for many years, but still get email linking to its freebie Coronvirus articles from it. Perhaps you noticed the chimp-out on CHIMs (controlled human infection models) published on July 1, 2020 and in particular, its in-your-face we-want-you-dead,
    “A single death or severe illness in an otherwise healthy volunteer would be unconscionable and would halt progress.”

    https://www.nejm.org/doi/pdf/10.1056/NEJMp2020076?articleTools=true
    more of the same:
    https://www.nejm.org/doi/full/10.1056/NEJMp2020076

    [MORE]

    On April 4, 2020 I advocated challenge testing of a thousand volunteers in an isteve post on April 4, 2020. Since that time the US has had stretches of more than a thousand Covid 19 deaths per *day*. Most health care workers under the age of thirty should *not* be allowed to get a Sars-Cov-2 vaccine. They should burn hotter and longer in Hell (if it exists) than “Doctor” Josef Mengele. “Then again, I could be wrong.”*- Nah

    * See the Coen brothers’ “Dennis Miller’s Crossing”

    • Replies: @Deadite
    @reactionry

    The vaccine will turn all users into CHUDs

    That’s exciting!

  83. @Anon
    Betting on a false flag implicating Iran in Biden's second year in office.

    Replies: @Thoughts

    This. This. and This.

    The only thing on my mind….

    Assad and his wife are toast as well

    I always thought liberal non-Jewish women were anti-War…but the whole bossy, telling people how to live their lives, wear the F***ing Mask!!…fits perfectly into the ‘Let’s Kill People’ Mentality

  84. @Bert
    That Emmanuel would be appointed to the Covid task force simply reinforces my conclusion that there was zero concern among high-level bureaucrats about deaths of the most vulnerable. The only thing worse than being a Deplorable is being an Expendable.

    Replies: @Buffalo Joe, @Jim Don Bob

    The only thing worse than being a Deplorable is being an Expendable.

    Well said, sir.

  85. @Buzz Mohawk
    ... and Steve Sailer.

    Whichever vaccine it is, it really should go first (and perhaps only) to people who actually are at risk from this and all other corona viruses: the elderly and people with serious health problems or susceptibilities.

    The rest of us should go on with our lives -- and should have been allowed to from the beginning of this hysteria.

    Also, it's really funny how presidents and such get credit or blame when things they really have little to do with go well or badly. Sure, Trump approved an accelerated plan and the corresponding $billions and coordination with Big Pharma, but, like JFK, he didn't exactly build a Saturn V and fly to the moon -- nor could any other president have.

    Same goes for the way presidents either take credit or blame for massive economies that they can't and don't control.

    But people need kings, gods and heroes to displace things onto, apparently.

    Replies: @Joe Stalin, @res, @DRA

    Whichever vaccine it is, it really should go first (and perhaps only) to people who actually are at risk from this and all other corona viruses: the elderly and people with serious health problems or susceptibilities.

    For maximum effectiveness within the population as a whole you also want to vaccinate high connectivity people (e.g. frequent flyers) who might transmit the disease.

  86. @Mr. Anon
    @utu


    The second of your sentences invalidates the first. If we did not have lockdowns the death toll would be much greater by now, perhaps by an order of magnitude meaning that Asian Flu of 1957/58 (116k deaths in the US) was 10-20 times less lethal.
     
    Utter nonsense. The lockdowns did not work.

    And if you try to retort bringing up Sweden do not overlook the fact that NYS and UK have 6.5 and 11 times higher than the population density of Sweden, respectively.
     
    Japan didn't have much of a lockdown, just the normal sort of things that sensible countries, like Sweden and like the US in years past, typically do. They have a very high population density too. Yes, I'm sure the Caribou of northern Sweden were relatively untouched by COVID, but the Somalis in Stockholm were not so lucky. Most of the deaths have been in urban areas. And while population density of New York, the UK, and Sweden may be quite different, the population density of those countries urban areas isn't so different.

    Again, hide in a hidey-hole if you are so terrifed. Nobody is stopping you. Leave the rest of us out of your fearful delusions.

    Replies: @utu, @Travis

    “The lockdowns did not work.” – No, they did. It worked in Norway. As of today Norway has 11.3 times lower deaths per capita than Sweden: 11.3 times lower 11.3 times lower 11.3 times lower 11.3 times lower

    “Japan didn’t have much of a lockdown” – Japanese behave under their ‘no lockdown’ better than Americans under their ‘lockdown’. Universal masking makes a big difference and finally Japan’s excellent track and trace system going back to the 1950s is very effective at low infection rates. The reason EU countries squandered the initial success of lockdowns during the first wave is because they did not follow up with efficient track and trace system once they lowered infection rates down to manageable levels.

    • Replies: @Mr. Anon
    @utu


    No, they did. It worked in Norway. As of today Norway has 11.3 times lower deaths per capita than Sweden: 11.3 times lower 11.3 times lower 11.3 times lower 11.3 times lower
     
    So? Who says they even have similar demographics anymore. Norway probably took care to protect their old people in long term care - the only thing that makes any differenc.

    Japan doesn't have universal masking, and universal masking makes no difference. You can't even see on case number curves when mask-mandates went into effect.

    You people are immune to any facts; you can only double down on your enthusiasm for repression.

    Repress yourself.

    Replies: @utu

  87. what will Trump do about Trump supporters getting their ass kicked in DC tonight? nothing, as usual.

    screw Donald Trump. this guy is the worst one way door i’ve ever seen. isn’t he President of the United States? can’t he even maintain civility in the nation’s Capital when his own supporters show up in numbers to support him?

    herr derr, donate to my defense fund! i’m just gonna take that money and leave the White House. i’m not gonna actually use it to pay for any election lawsuits.

    Don the Con. saturday night in DC just about says it all.

  88. @utu
    @Mr. Anon

    "The lockdowns did not work." - No, they did. It worked in Norway. As of today Norway has 11.3 times lower deaths per capita than Sweden: 11.3 times lower 11.3 times lower 11.3 times lower 11.3 times lower

    "Japan didn’t have much of a lockdown" - Japanese behave under their 'no lockdown' better than Americans under their 'lockdown'. Universal masking makes a big difference and finally Japan's excellent track and trace system going back to the 1950s is very effective at low infection rates. The reason EU countries squandered the initial success of lockdowns during the first wave is because they did not follow up with efficient track and trace system once they lowered infection rates down to manageable levels.

    Replies: @Mr. Anon

    No, they did. It worked in Norway. As of today Norway has 11.3 times lower deaths per capita than Sweden: 11.3 times lower 11.3 times lower 11.3 times lower 11.3 times lower

    So? Who says they even have similar demographics anymore. Norway probably took care to protect their old people in long term care – the only thing that makes any differenc.

    Japan doesn’t have universal masking, and universal masking makes no difference. You can’t even see on case number curves when mask-mandates went into effect.

    You people are immune to any facts; you can only double down on your enthusiasm for repression.

    Repress yourself.

    • Replies: @utu
    @Mr. Anon

    "Who says they even have similar demographics anymore." - Yes, Norway has about 1.2 times less very old people than Sweden. This is very long way to explain away the 11 fold lower death rate.

    "Norway probably took care to protect their old people". - Yes, it did by having a lockdown.

    Japan doesn’t have universal masking. - 80% Japanese wore masks religiously.

    You can’t even see on case number curves when mask-mandates went into effect. - see Christopher Leffler et al. (June 15, 2020) and Alexander Karaivanov et al. (October 16, 2020.)


    Association of country-wide coronavirus mortality with demographics, testing, lockdowns, and public wearing of masks. Update August 4, 2020.
    https://www.medrxiv.org/content/10.1101/2020.05.22.20109231v5

    In countries with cultural norms or government policies supporting public mask-wearing, per-capita coronavirus mortality increased on average by just 15.8% each week, as compared with 62.1% each week in remaining countries.
    Conclusions. Societal norms and government policies supporting the wearing of masks by the public, as well as international travel controls, are independently associated with lower per-capita mortality from COVID-19.
     


    Face Masks, Public Policies and Slowing the Spread of COVID-19: Evidence from Canada (October 16, 2020)
    Alexander Karaivanov, Shih En Lu, Hitoshi Shigeoka, Cong Chen, Stephanie Pamplona
    https://www.medrxiv.org/content/10.1101/2020.09.24.20201178v2

    We find that mask mandates are associated with a 25 percent or larger weekly reduction in new COVID-19 cases in July and August, relative to the trend in absence of mask mandate. Additional analysis with province-level data provides corroborating evidence.
     

    Replies: @Mr. Anon

  89. @J.Ross
    @Buffalo Joe

    Yes, it's one group, and after all Trump locked none of them up. We will see a return to the dysfunction, persecution and nightmare of Obama's second term. Heavily hyped wierdly executed mass shootings will precede nudging about ending the Constitution. Families and doctors will be encouraged to inform on people. Crime will rise and the lyingpress will scare boomers about non-violent virgins.

    Replies: @Buffalo Joe

    J, very nice comment. thank you for the reply.

  90. @Diversity Heretic
    For those of us who remember the 1976 swine flu vaccination fiasco, the concept of mass inoculations with a minimaly-tested, rushed-to-production vaccine for a highly contagious, but not particularly lethal virus is very disturbing. And the fact that it isn't only a new vaccine, but a new type of vaccine that uses messenger RNA (whatever that is) makes me even more uneasy. (I've read that it actually makes a person a genetically modified organism, but don't have the scientific expertise to evaluate such a claim.) There's a reason that vaccine development often takes a while, such as evaluating the long-term side effects. This vaccination program has all the signs of a major health disaster. I'd prefer to take my chances with the virus and I'm in my seventh decade.

    Replies: @MB, @Deadite, @That Would Be Telling

    I look forward to all the people being vaccinated on stage with Trump screaming horribly and mutating into zombies.

    Wait, Nancy and Joe already are.

    Never mind!

  91. @reactionry
    @415 reasons

    Thoroughly Modern Mengele?

    I haven't subscribed to the New England Journal of Mengele for many years, but still get email linking to its freebie Coronvirus articles from it. Perhaps you noticed the chimp-out on CHIMs (controlled human infection models) published on July 1, 2020 and in particular, its in-your-face we-want-you-dead,
    "A single death or severe illness in an otherwise healthy volunteer would be unconscionable and would halt progress."

    https://www.nejm.org/doi/pdf/10.1056/NEJMp2020076?articleTools=true
    more of the same:
    https://www.nejm.org/doi/full/10.1056/NEJMp2020076


    On April 4, 2020 I advocated challenge testing of a thousand volunteers in an isteve post on April 4, 2020. Since that time the US has had stretches of more than a thousand Covid 19 deaths per *day*. Most health care workers under the age of thirty should *not* be allowed to get a Sars-Cov-2 vaccine. They should burn hotter and longer in Hell (if it exists) than "Doctor" Josef Mengele. "Then again, I could be wrong."*- Nah

    * See the Coen brothers' "Dennis Miller's Crossing"

    Replies: @Deadite

    The vaccine will turn all users into CHUDs

    That’s exciting!

  92. @RoatanBill
    removing regulatory roadblocks to development of a vaccine.

    We're from the government and we're here to help.

    Both those phrases should scare the average person. There's no telling what side effects these concoctions will have months or years after injection.

    I'm going to deny my informed consent when asked to take a shot. If enough people do the same, they can't manhandle a huge portion of the society.

    Replies: @AnotherDad

    There’s no telling what side effects these concoctions will have months or years after injection.

    That’s true. But neither of these things is “natural”. Neither has been around long enough to know much about any “long term” effects.

    The Xi virus came out of some lab in Wuhan last fall. The Xi-virus vaccine is coming out of some lab in Germany or the US this year.

    The later doesn’t seem to make people as sick as the former and isn’t infectious. I think i’d opt for it.

  93. @Jonathan Silber
    The effectiveness of vaccines against Covid in the group most at risk of death from it -- the old, sickly, and weak -- is likely to be low.

    Replies: @res

    It might be better to focus vaccinations on caregivers (and visitors?) for the old and people with high social connectivity. Probably in addition to rather than instead of the people at high risk. The effectiveness is unlikely to be zero even if it is lower.

  94. As far as I know the governments of all countries that are developing vaccines for Covid-19 have accelerated their approval systems so as to get the vaccine out as soon as possible.

    The Russians have been very creative with the registration of their Sputnik V vaccine.

    Are there any examples of governments where vaccines are being developed that have refused to cut red tape and accelerate registration processes?

    While Trump government is to be lauded for prioritizing the development of vaccines, would any other administration have done anything different?

    • Replies: @J.Ross
    @Jonathan Mason

    Larry Elder had a quote from an Obama staffer who described the administration response to an earlier plague as a well-informed well-intentioned diasaster: there's also Obama's brave decision to abandon quarantine for ebola.

  95. @Sean
    @Ponce Faggy

    Andrew 'Boris' Johnson was born in America. Churchill was born in Britain's only non royal palace as the grandson of 7th Duke of Marlborough, and his mother was American, so was MacMillan's.

    In May an infectious disease epidemiologist and a professor of theoretical epidemiology at the Department of Zoology, University of Oxford estimated the COVID-19 infection fatality rate as less than one in a thousand, and closer to one in ten thousand. Her name is Sunetra Gupta. What could Boris learn from a 'working class White lad'? Upward mobility is a myth: look at Johnson's ancestors
    https://www.findmypast.co.uk/blog/discoveries/boris-johnson-family


    http://content.time.com/time/health/article/0,8599,1932366,00.html
    In Germany, a Better Vaccine for Politicians?
    By Tristana Moore / Berlin Tuesday, Oct. 27, 2009

    Amid growing fears of a possible global flu pandemic, the German government prepared for its mass-vaccination campaign earlier this year by ordering 50 million doses of the Pandemrix vaccine, enough for a double dose for 25 million people, about a third of the population. The vaccine, manufactured by GlaxoSmithKline, contains an immunity-enhancing chemical compound, known as an adjuvant, whose side effects are not yet entirely known. Then, after a report was leaked to the German media last week, the Interior Ministry confirmed that it had ordered a different vaccine, Celvapan, for government officials and the military. Celvapan, which is made by U.S. pharmaceutical giant Baxter, does not contain an adjuvant and is believed to have fewer side effects than Pandemrix.
     

    Back in 2009 EthnoGermans had to turn to the US and their immigrant experts for vaccines, but now Germany has their own immigrants. All the West is the same. And these countries are going to successfully compete with China? Spengler was right.

    Replies: @utu

    “In May an infectious disease epidemiologist and a professor of theoretical epidemiology at the Department of Zoology, University of Oxford estimated the COVID-19 infection fatality rate as less than one in a thousand, and closer to one in ten thousand. Her name is Sunetra Gupta. ” – Estimate? No, she assumed that value as an input parameter to her model to get results that people who she worked for wanted. Her paper was a part of the last ditch effort of the ‘ herd immunity crowd’ to stop the countermeasures and lockdown.

    Oxford Model Touting ‘Herd Immunity’ was Promoted by PR Agency Tied to Ministry of Defence and Nudge Unit
    https://bylinetimes.com/2020/03/26/the-coronavirus-crisis-oxford-model-touting-herd-immunity-was-promoted-by-pr-agency-tied-to-ministry-of-defence-and-nudge-unit/

    Behavioural Scientists told Government to use ‘Herd Immunity’ to Justify Business-As-Usual https://bylinetimes.com/2020/03/23/covid-19-special-investigation-part-three-behavioural-scientists-told-government-to-use-herd-immunity-to-justify-business-as-usual/

    The PR firm with ties to MoD and SAGE gets the editor of the FT on the phone who enthusiastically writes on March 24 about the news according to Gupta:

    Coronavirus may have infected half of UK population — Oxford study. (March 24)
    https://www.ft.com/content/5ff6469a-6dd8-11ea-89df-41bea055720b

    Many experts object:

    expert reaction to unpublished paper modelling what percentage of the UK population may have been exposed to COVID-19
    https://www.sciencemediacentre.org/expert-reaction-to-unpublished-paper-modelling-what-percentage-of-the-uk-population-may-have-been-exposed-to-covid-19/

    and the FT gets skeptical:

    Why it’s too tempting to believe the Oxford study on coronavirus (March 27)
    https://www.ft.com/content/14df8908-6f47-11ea-9bca-bf503995cd6f

    which is followed by a critical letter from six epidemiology professors several days later:

    Letter: The Oxford study figure has no empirical justification. (March 30)
    https://www.ft.com/content/ebab9fcc-6e8d-11ea-9bca-bf503995cd6f

    Sunetra Gupta destroyed her reputation.

    • Replies: @Mr. Anon
    @utu


    Sunetra Gupta destroyed her reputation.
     
    That's funny, coming from you.
  96. @Mr. Anon
    @utu


    No, they did. It worked in Norway. As of today Norway has 11.3 times lower deaths per capita than Sweden: 11.3 times lower 11.3 times lower 11.3 times lower 11.3 times lower
     
    So? Who says they even have similar demographics anymore. Norway probably took care to protect their old people in long term care - the only thing that makes any differenc.

    Japan doesn't have universal masking, and universal masking makes no difference. You can't even see on case number curves when mask-mandates went into effect.

    You people are immune to any facts; you can only double down on your enthusiasm for repression.

    Repress yourself.

    Replies: @utu

    “Who says they even have similar demographics anymore.” – Yes, Norway has about 1.2 times less very old people than Sweden. This is very long way to explain away the 11 fold lower death rate.

    “Norway probably took care to protect their old people”. – Yes, it did by having a lockdown.

    Japan doesn’t have universal masking. – 80% Japanese wore masks religiously.

    You can’t even see on case number curves when mask-mandates went into effect. – see Christopher Leffler et al. (June 15, 2020) and Alexander Karaivanov et al. (October 16, 2020.)

    Association of country-wide coronavirus mortality with demographics, testing, lockdowns, and public wearing of masks. Update August 4, 2020.
    https://www.medrxiv.org/content/10.1101/2020.05.22.20109231v5

    In countries with cultural norms or government policies supporting public mask-wearing, per-capita coronavirus mortality increased on average by just 15.8% each week, as compared with 62.1% each week in remaining countries.
    Conclusions. Societal norms and government policies supporting the wearing of masks by the public, as well as international travel controls, are independently associated with lower per-capita mortality from COVID-19.

    Face Masks, Public Policies and Slowing the Spread of COVID-19: Evidence from Canada (October 16, 2020)
    Alexander Karaivanov, Shih En Lu, Hitoshi Shigeoka, Cong Chen, Stephanie Pamplona
    https://www.medrxiv.org/content/10.1101/2020.09.24.20201178v2

    We find that mask mandates are associated with a 25 percent or larger weekly reduction in new COVID-19 cases in July and August, relative to the trend in absence of mask mandate. Additional analysis with province-level data provides corroborating evidence.

    • Replies: @Mr. Anon
    @utu

    Studies find.............

    You sound like an NPR listener.

    There are lots of studies from which you can cherry pick.

  97. off topic, but likely of interest to long-time isteve readers – time to short the housing market again

    https://www.cnbc.com/2020/11/05/30-year-old-making-95k-a-year-bought-a-252k-home-during-the-pandemic.html?__source=twitter%7Cmain

  98. Gupta is foreign and a professor at Oxford. That tells you something. A first generation Indian and a first generation Pakistani and someone with a Czech father who arrived in the UK in 1938 are those in the great offices of state just below PM status, and would certainly run for, in effect, PM if Boris (Turkish great grandfather among various foreign ancestors) fell under a bus. When he drinks himself to death, Priti Patel will be the next PM.

    https://pbs.twimg.com/media/EmujW-XXEAQFp4d?format=jpg&name=medium

    Gupta said the lockdown would not achieve its objectives, and would be counterproductive. Right at the begining of all this the argument for having no lockdown was that a lockdown would not fix the problem and when it came off the virus would be come back in the winter when hospitals are overstretched anyway. And after months of lockdown ended, that is exactly what has happened, which is why England has just went into another lockdown. Boris is now talking about things getting much better after winter is over, by which he means the lockdowns will continue until the vaccine is distributed. If they could get people to stick to the rules a single two weeks long lockdown followed by distancing would be enough to end it. The Chinese managed, but then they killed off all their sparrows one year by a mass campaign of disturbing them until they dropped dead of exhaustion.

    My point in mentioning Gupta was not really that she is right or wrong, but rather as an example of how foreign the higher reaches of the knowledge class is in the West. Another example is Demis Hassabis was born to a Greek Cypriot father and a Chinese Singaporean mother, he is the CEO and co-founder of DeepMind, which took a significant step towards true AI.

  99. Anonymous[249] • Disclaimer says:
    @theMann
    1. Vaccines as a rule do not work on the Elderly - the evidence for this is mountainous.

    2. No mRNA vaccine that has been developed or tested has yet been free of a very unfortunate side effect: Immunization against one strain of a virus, extreme susceptibility against other strains of a virus. Result: 100% death rate in immunized subjects.

    3. Mask don't work, for real or imaginary viruses, evidence overwhelming, but now 85% of the population is wearing them. End result: lung cancer, tuberculosis, tooth decay/gum disease, permanent damage to lung and brain function.


    All this for an imaginary Cold Virus.


    When I pointed out that 80% of the Country had moved to a new address, the corner of hysterical coward and low grade moron, I actually misidentified the Street names.

    80% of you have moved to the corner of Insane and Satanic.

    Replies: @Anonymous

    1. Vaccines as a rule do not work on the Elderly – the evidence for this is mountainous.

    2. No mRNA vaccine that has been developed or tested has yet been free of a very unfortunate side effect: Immunization against one strain of a virus, extreme susceptibility against other strains of a virus. Result: 100% death rate in immunized subjects.

    3. Mask don’t work, for real or imaginary viruses, evidence overwhelming, but now 85% of the population is wearing them. End result: lung cancer, tuberculosis, tooth decay/gum disease, permanent damage to lung and brain function.

    All this for an imaginary Cold Virus.

    Yet you provide NO citations, credible or otherwise, for your claims.

    Why don’t you crawl back to 4chan?

  100. @Anonymous
    @415 reasons


    At the beginning of the pandemic I thought the “the libs love lockdowns for their own sake” argument was overwrought but now I think it’s absolutely true. They don’t really want a solution to the pandemic, they want a way to wear the hair shirt and virtue signal more intensely than ever.
     
    No. What they really wanted was to defeat Donald Trump.

    Replies: @415 reasons

    Yet here we are post election and the vaccine has proved efficacious and the line still want Donald Trump’s FDA to wait another month for useless safety data that will prove nothing about long term rare side effects while 1000+ people die per day. They’re talking about a 6 week lockdown after Biden takes office! First of all the cases will, I guarantee, have peaked and started declining by late January if Europe is any guide. It’s not really seasonal. It’s about people’s behavior, in a regime with no behavioral changes at all it spreads pandemically year round that is already obvious. They’re saying we’ll have 20-40 million doses of the Pfizer vaccine by inauguration. Presumably the same number of doses of the Moderna one. Instead of talking national lockdowns we should be talking about getting every vulnerable person in the states with the worst outbreaks vaccinated before Inauguration Day. Biden’s not even mentioning that because they really seem to have a policy preference for non pharmaceutical interventions with huge cost and dubious benefit or this pharmaceutical intervention that will have an extremely low cost (very rare side effects years from now, possibly) and an incredibly dramatic benefit (can basically prevent all deaths in an area where it’s deployed starting a month after uptake).

    • Replies: @That Would Be Telling
    @415 reasons


    Presumably the same number of doses of the Moderna one. Instead of talking national lockdowns we should be talking about getting every vulnerable person in the states with the worst outbreaks vaccinated before Inauguration Day.
     
    Might be more for Moderna, Pfizer refused up front Operation Warp Speed money while I believe Moderna accepted it, so they might have more doses ready by the time their Emergency Use Authorization (EUA) application presumably gets approved by the FDA (and then come the steps to get it approved for the general population).

    We also can't yet know how well any of these vaccines protect the elderly, we have to wait for more of the Phase 3 participants to get symptomatic COVID-19 or not. So I suppose you could make a case that Team Biden's "the beatings will continue" approach is the best we have for a while. Or they would be so if their policies focused on protecting the most vulnerable, instead of "doing something" the BAD ORANGE MAN wouldn't or didn't.

    Or as Richard "wretchardthecast" Fernandez put it "The cost of politicizing the disease is it locks people into positions. In fact dealing with an epidemic is an exercise in adaptation."

    Replies: @415 reasons

  101. @Mr. Anon
    @utu


    The second of your sentences invalidates the first. If we did not have lockdowns the death toll would be much greater by now, perhaps by an order of magnitude meaning that Asian Flu of 1957/58 (116k deaths in the US) was 10-20 times less lethal.
     
    Utter nonsense. The lockdowns did not work.

    And if you try to retort bringing up Sweden do not overlook the fact that NYS and UK have 6.5 and 11 times higher than the population density of Sweden, respectively.
     
    Japan didn't have much of a lockdown, just the normal sort of things that sensible countries, like Sweden and like the US in years past, typically do. They have a very high population density too. Yes, I'm sure the Caribou of northern Sweden were relatively untouched by COVID, but the Somalis in Stockholm were not so lucky. Most of the deaths have been in urban areas. And while population density of New York, the UK, and Sweden may be quite different, the population density of those countries urban areas isn't so different.

    Again, hide in a hidey-hole if you are so terrifed. Nobody is stopping you. Leave the rest of us out of your fearful delusions.

    Replies: @utu, @Travis

    Correct , The lockdowns did little to reduce COVID deaths.

    New Jersey is a good example, the schools, churches, restaurants were all shout down by March 15…..yet hospitalizations peaked 5 weeks after the lockdowns and deaths peaked 6 weeks after the lockdowns. The lockdowns did not prevent people from getting coronavirus.

    New Jersey had 15,000 COVID deaths while Sweden had just 6,100 COVID deaths so far. Sweden’s population is 12% greater than NJ , yet New Jersey has 150% more COVOD deaths than Sweden

  102. @Mr. Anon
    @AnotherDad


    If you quickly get a vaccine then you can say “hey, we generated a steep recession and took away everyone’s freedom for a few months … but that saved a lot of lives!” (How effective this stuff has actually been is up in the air.)
     
    It's not up in the air. Lockdowns didn't work. Lockdown regime is uncorrelated with death rate.

    But if you are not on a path to quickly get a vaccine, then these measures make absolutely no sense. They are clearly unsustainable long term. People will find them wildly over-the-top for the actual threat.
     
    People could have done that already, but they haven't. And they are sustainable long term in a repressive police-state, which is where most of the western world is headed.

    Replies: @Anonymous

    Lockdowns didn’t work. Lockdown regime is uncorrelated with death rate.

    Au contraire. Lockdowns are highly correlated with the death rate of SMALL AND MEDIUM BUSINESSES..

  103. Anonymous[156] • Disclaimer says:
    @Mr. Anon
    The national and international "public health community" started gearing up to weaponize "public health" against their own populations twenty years ago. We are seeing the fruition of it now. "Keeping us safe" always means surveiling us, locking us down, intruding themselves into our lives. By giving in this this first time, we will never be rid of it. What about the next pandemic, which Bill Gates already gleefully predicts?

    What if they institute mandatory testing for everyone, essentially all the time? Think about it - that swab they jab up your nose doesn't just collect virons, it collects YOUR DNA. This will allow them to create a global DNA registry of virtually every citizen subject. It'll be alot harder to commit crimes in the future. And there will be alot more things that are criminal, including things that are legal and commonplace today, like speaking your mind.

    We've been told by the media - harangued actually - that COVID-19 is damned near the worst thing that ever happened. In truth, it isn't much different than the Asian Flu of 1957/58; the World did not imprison and impoverish itself in responding to that. In some ways, the Asian Flu was a lot worse. COVID mostly kills the old and infirm, whereas over 40% of those killed by the Asian Flu were children less than five years old.

    This pandemic is being used, or was caused (that is not an impossibility), to enslave the World for the benefit of the global overlord class.

    But on your bracelet, slave:

    https://www.zerohedge.com/political/government-advisers-suggest-giving-covid-free-brits-permission-wristbands

    Replies: @utu, @Anonymous

    The national and international “public health community” started gearing up to weaponize “public health” against their own populations twenty years ago. We are seeing the fruition of it now. “Keeping us safe” always means surveiling us, locking us down, intruding themselves into our lives.

    The apotheosis of the public health cult is mass euthanasia of the hoi polloi, perpetrated with sneering contempt on a cowed and unarmed populace by a hierarchy of ethnic “minority” commissars.

    “Health Commissioner Beria will see you now.”

  104. @ThreeCranes
    OT. A little break from the seriousness of these soul-crushing times….

    A song dedicated on behalf of every man here to the light of his life, these lovely European women bejeweled by flowers, seen not as bearers of an evil apple , but of a beauty which inspires all of us. Europe forever.

    https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=dZMc0-ZAUeY

    Replies: @Diversity Heretic

    Thanks! One of my favorite songs from the 1960s.

  105. iSteve is obviously in the pocket of The Powers.
    Learn something about the deadly harm caused by vaccines, by their ineffectiveness, etc. See The Truth About Vaccines, with Ty Bolinger, Bobby Kennedy, etc.
    Steve seems to be a well-payed deep state scumbag.

  106. @anonymous
    Regarding your last paragraph:

    1) I believe that Trump is an anti-vaxxer.
    2) There's less than zero chance he would allow anyone to get the spotlight at his expense.

    Replies: @Gordo

    1) I believe that Trump is an anti-vaxxer.

    You mean this?

    Problem is the vaccine thing was politicised well before Trump. Unable to discuss Gulf War syndrome as seen as anti-vaxxer, unable to discuss the UK NHS using a less than ideal Polio vaccine spectrum, thus causing a small number of paralysis cases every year, nil in Sweden, there are a number of the ‘elite’ who think they know better and information should be withheld from the people, this is a problem.

  107. @utu
    What did happen to the Israeli vaccine?

    Israeli scientists: 'In a few weeks, we will have coronavirus vaccine' (APRIL 13, 2020)
    https://www.jpost.com/health-science/israeli-scientists-in-three-weeks-we-will-have-coronavirus-vaccine-619101

    Israeli government research institute says tests of its COVID-19 vaccine have worked on hamsters (JUNE 22, 2020)
    https://www.jta.org/quick-reads

    Israel claims 'excellent vaccine in hand', set to start human trials (August 07, 2020)
    https://health.economictimes.indiatimes.com/news/pharma/israel-claims-excellent-vaccine-in-hand-set-to-start-human-trials/77404029

    First 2 volunteers injected with Israeli virus vaccine, kicking off human trials (1 November 2020)
    https://www.timesofisrael.com/first-2-volunteers-injected-with-israeli-virus-vaccine-kicking-off-human-trials/

    And yet

    Israel seals vaccine deal with Pfizer, amid signs pandemic spreading again (13 November 2020)
    https://www.timesofisrael.com/israel-seals-vaccine-deal-with-pfizer-amid-signs-pandemic-spreading-again/

    "PM says Israel will receive enough doses to inoculate 4 million Israelis..."

    "Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu on Friday announced that Israel signed a deal with Pfizer to purchase millions of coronavirus vaccine shots, days after the US pharmaceutical firm said data suggested the vaccine was 90 percent effective at preventing COVID-19."

    "The report further said Israel will pay the NIS 120 million ($35 million) advance next week, and another NIS 680 million ($202 million) when the first vaccines arrive. Pfizer will then provide hundreds of thousands of vaccines every month for the duration of 2021."
     
    This is about $59 per person for Pfizer.

    Replies: @Wielgus

    I read somewhere that it turned out to be a dud. I wouldn’t get too excited yet about the Pfizer one or any others.

  108. @415 reasons
    @Anonymous

    Yet here we are post election and the vaccine has proved efficacious and the line still want Donald Trump’s FDA to wait another month for useless safety data that will prove nothing about long term rare side effects while 1000+ people die per day. They’re talking about a 6 week lockdown after Biden takes office! First of all the cases will, I guarantee, have peaked and started declining by late January if Europe is any guide. It’s not really seasonal. It’s about people’s behavior, in a regime with no behavioral changes at all it spreads pandemically year round that is already obvious. They’re saying we’ll have 20-40 million doses of the Pfizer vaccine by inauguration. Presumably the same number of doses of the Moderna one. Instead of talking national lockdowns we should be talking about getting every vulnerable person in the states with the worst outbreaks vaccinated before Inauguration Day. Biden’s not even mentioning that because they really seem to have a policy preference for non pharmaceutical interventions with huge cost and dubious benefit or this pharmaceutical intervention that will have an extremely low cost (very rare side effects years from now, possibly) and an incredibly dramatic benefit (can basically prevent all deaths in an area where it’s deployed starting a month after uptake).

    Replies: @That Would Be Telling

    Presumably the same number of doses of the Moderna one. Instead of talking national lockdowns we should be talking about getting every vulnerable person in the states with the worst outbreaks vaccinated before Inauguration Day.

    Might be more for Moderna, Pfizer refused up front Operation Warp Speed money while I believe Moderna accepted it, so they might have more doses ready by the time their Emergency Use Authorization (EUA) application presumably gets approved by the FDA (and then come the steps to get it approved for the general population).

    We also can’t yet know how well any of these vaccines protect the elderly, we have to wait for more of the Phase 3 participants to get symptomatic COVID-19 or not. So I suppose you could make a case that Team Biden’s “the beatings will continue” approach is the best we have for a while. Or they would be so if their policies focused on protecting the most vulnerable, instead of “doing something” the BAD ORANGE MAN wouldn’t or didn’t.

    Or as Richard “wretchardthecast” Fernandez put itThe cost of politicizing the disease is it locks people into positions. In fact dealing with an epidemic is an exercise in adaptation.

    • Replies: @415 reasons
    @That Would Be Telling

    There are indications it works in the elderly. They get good antibody responses. https://www.bloomberg.com/news/articles/2020-08-26/moderna-will-present-vaccine-data-in-older-people-at-cdc-meeting

    Might not be quite as effective as under 65s but there is a strong expectation it would save a huge number of lives. There’s no reason to delay at this point. It’s arguable whether the framing of the libs around the numbers of deaths has been fair or tendentious, but if you could do something (relatively) easy like roll out the vaccines ASAP that seems likely to save thousands of lives and compare it to something that is divisive, expensive, and less likely to work like a second national lockdown, to me it’s a no brainer.

  109. @Steve Richter
    Pfizer and Moderna must have done enough trials of their vaccines early on to know that they worked. Remember, the vaccines were designed and ready for inoculation in the first half of 2020. These companies are not doing internal tests right from the start? Otherwise, those involved risk their $billion payoff based on slow moving trials which do not bring results until 2021?

    Replies: @That Would Be Telling

    Pfizer and Moderna must have done enough trials of their vaccines early on to know that they worked. Remember, the vaccines were designed and ready for inoculation in the first half of 2020. These companies are not doing internal tests right from the start?

    Based on “surrogate endpoints,” here the pretty good one of serological evidence of strong short and long term immune system responses (the initial wave of antibodies for stamping out an infection of course don’t last, but memory cells get primed to produce more and quickly if the immune system detects another infection). The real tests for efficacy begin with the Phase 3 trials, when you compare who gets COVID-19 between the test and control groups. I think Phase 1 tends to have a few dozen, it’s focused on picking the right dosing, Moderna’s Phase 2 took their #1 into account to try to hone in on what they’d try for Phase 3 with hundreds of participants. Phase 3 does 30,000 minimum, half vaccine, half placebo.

  110. @kpkinsunnyphiladelphia
    Trump's Operation Warpspeed will be one of his great legacies.

    Traditional vaccine development simply takes too long. That little Napoleonic squirt Fauci was initially talking about 18 to 24 months. That's due largely to the unnecessarily lengthy traditional Phase 3 part, where you have to track infections for months.

    A vaccine is has two binary aspects: it either creates antibodies, or it doesn't; and it's generated antibodies in turn elicits memory T cells or it doesn't.

    The key thing about Moderna's vaccine is that is has your own system create antibodies against the "conserved" portion of the cornoavirus spike that is common across strains.

    This part of the spike will tend to remain the same across virus mutations. This vaccine will have a long lasting effect on those who take it.

    Replies: @That Would Be Telling

    That little Napoleonic squirt Fauci was initially talking about 18 to 24 months. That’s due largely to the unnecessarily lengthy traditional Phase 3 part, where you have to track infections for months.

    My impression is that the normal year plus length of these trials starting with Phase I is to fine tune the dosing, something Moderna probably did a bad job of due to everyone doing this as speed and some unlucky guessing (the word from Phase 3 participants is to “man up” and set aside a one day after your 2nd dose, you may need it; all comes from vaccines by definition poking the immune system with a stick, or in this case more like whacking it with one).

    Note also the Phase 3 trials will continue for months, this very first set of results is only enough for an Emergency Use Authorization (EUA) application to the FDA, and only the highest priority people will be able to get it while their and more Phase 3 data safety and efficacy data is collected. For example, we don’t yet have enough data to know how effective they’re going to be on the elderly.

    • Replies: @FPD72
    @That Would Be Telling


    My impression is that the normal year plus length of these trials starting with Phase I is to fine tune the dosing, something Moderna probably did a bad job of due to everyone doing this as speed and some unlucky guessing (the word from Phase 3 participants is to “man up” and set aside a one day after your 2nd dose, you may need it; all comes from vaccines by definition poking the immune system with a stick, or in this case more like whacking it with one).

    Note also the Phase 3 trials will continue for months, this very first set of results is only enough for an Emergency Use Authorization (EUA) application to the FDA, and only the highest priority people will be able to get it while their and more Phase 3 data safety and efficacy data is collected. For example, we don’t yet have enough data to know how effective they’re going to be on the elderly.
     
    Good comments. I would add that allowing a day for recovery from the Pfizer second vaccination is also a good idea. I am in the Pfizer trial and after the second shot I ran a fever for four days and had chills and joint pain for two days.

    I certainly hope the Pfizer vaccine is effective for the elderly. I’m seventy and three weeks after the second injection I went to an independent lab for a test. I tested positive for antibodies but have no idea what the concentration might be.

    My thinking is I’m as protected as I’ll ever be so I have left house arrest and am living a normal life: church, indoor shooting range, shopping, eating at restaurants, babysitting and roughhousing with grandkids, etc. I’m continuing with vitamins C and D, zinc, and some other supplements for general immune system strength. Although I believe they are next to worthless, I wear a mask when indoors in public places to conform with state mandates and property owner requirements. Not as much as a sniffle or cough since my “escape.”

    I realize that anecdotes aren’t data but this is my experience

    Replies: @That Would Be Telling

  111. @Achmed E. Newman

    It ought to be important to Donald Trump that his administration be remembered for doing an impressive amount to solve the pandemic of 2020-2021 by speeding the approval of vaccines.
     
    Not really. You know that the official narrative is Orange Man = Hitler and that no good deed of his will go unpunished.

    Secondly, those who want it to feel good about themselves can take the vaccine, and those who don't will have to eventually fight off an attempt to make it mandatory, while in the meantime, this virus mutates, creates immunity, and tails off like all the rest have. About the only think I care about regarding a vaccine is that maybe Big Gov and Bid Ed and the Lyin' Press Infotainment will lay off with the pushing of the face diapering.

    I kind of doubt that though, as they really like being able to pick out non-conformists by eye and with the digital facial recognition. Those with the masks on are free to peacefully protest and carjack at will. There is nothing to see there, Comrade.

    Replies: @Stan d Mute, @That Would Be Telling

    while in the meantime, this virus mutates, creates immunity, and tails off like all the rest have.

    Except for, you know, all the viruses for which we have “eternal” vaccines due to our lucking out in their targeting a “conserved” portion of the virus, change that too much and “the virus won’t virus.” For a lot of viruses you also don’t get “tails off like all the rest have,” i.e. herd immunity, without vaccine intervention, the ones for which that happens get forgotten, assuming they’re every really noticed in the first place.

    Here, we’re making a bet that the SARS-CoV-2 spike protein is conserved, and in the West’s leading vaccine candidates targeting just that. Note also unlike other RNA viruses, plenty of which we have “eternal” vaccines for, coronaviruses have a proofreading mechanism. But we certainly can’t rule out a mutation becoming prevalent once SARS-CoV-2 is under harsh selection pressure because it’s run out of naive populations to infect (which of course assume enough people get vaccinations).

  112. @Diversity Heretic
    For those of us who remember the 1976 swine flu vaccination fiasco, the concept of mass inoculations with a minimaly-tested, rushed-to-production vaccine for a highly contagious, but not particularly lethal virus is very disturbing. And the fact that it isn't only a new vaccine, but a new type of vaccine that uses messenger RNA (whatever that is) makes me even more uneasy. (I've read that it actually makes a person a genetically modified organism, but don't have the scientific expertise to evaluate such a claim.) There's a reason that vaccine development often takes a while, such as evaluating the long-term side effects. This vaccination program has all the signs of a major health disaster. I'd prefer to take my chances with the virus and I'm in my seventh decade.

    Replies: @MB, @Deadite, @That Would Be Telling

    And the fact that it isn’t only a new vaccine, but a new type of vaccine that uses messenger RNA (whatever that is) makes me even more uneasy. (I’ve read that it actually makes a person a genetically modified organism, but don’t have the scientific expertise to evaluate such a claim.) There’s a reason that vaccine development often takes a while, such as evaluating the long-term side effects.

    DNA gets transcribed into mRNA, which travels outside the nucleus where the former is mostly located to the protein producing parts of cells, where mRNA serves as the template for the production of proteins, 3 base pars code for one amino acid. RNA viruses hijack this system, creating as lot of virus mRNA that the cell then uses to create more viruses. The immune system is on the lookout for hijacked cells, and kills them using a variety of mechanisms, the “adaptive” system creating antibodies taking the longest.

    mRNA vaccines work just like the wild type virus, except they only hijack a relative few cells, and produce only one protein, here the infamous spike one that plays a critical role in the wild type getting into cells. So your immune system will think these vaccine hijacked cells are the real thing, and produce antibodies and memory cells for future bouts. In theory much more precise and safe than other technology, but that of course has to be proven in the real world.

    As for “it actually makes a person a genetically modified organism,” it’s garbage. It works like the wild type virus (so you can just wait until you get that), and in any case all these cells are killed by the immune system. To make you a GMO like HIV does, you’d need to convert the mRNA into DNA, and without reverse transcriptase being in the vaccine that’s not going to happen (as the name implies, it transcribes RNA into DNA). This propaganda is awful because this class of vaccines never invokes DNA, whereas the other 2 most advanced in testing Western vaccine candidates use DNA viruses that have been modified to include the genetic code for the spike vaccine, and to not be able to reproduce (I have no opinion on their theoretical safety, but this is supposed to be a now standard vaccine technology).

    One of the normal reasons vaccine development takes a long time is fine tuning the dosing, we’re short circuiting that one part of the process, and Moderna, the other mRNA vaccine candidate, appears to have guessed on dosages that are probably higher than needed (from participants, “man up,” and set aside a day after the 2nd dose, you may really need it).

    The other thing is that we still have a long time before the full FDA approval process is finished. Right now it’s only for Emergency Use Authorizations (EUAs), and based on those only a few cohorts of either the most vulnerable or those likely to infect the most vulnerable will be able to get these vaccines. Approval for more general populations will be based on their experiences, plus the longer term experiences of the Phase 3 test subjects, for those a minimum of 15,000 getting the vaccine.

  113. @jb
    Is anybody else just slightly creeped out by the way RNA vaccines work? As I understand it, the vaccine itself acts sort of like a virus, in that the RNA is enclosed in lipid globules that are taken up by your own cells, which then start manufacturing and pumping out the Coronavirus spike protein. This is in contrast to a traditional killed virus vaccine, where the body's immune system reacts to a foreign intrusion in the usual way.

    So, how many of your body's cells does the vaccine "infect?" Which cells are they, and how are they distributed? How long do they continue pumping our virus protein? This isn't a terribly serious objection, because I'm sure any big problems would show up in the trials. Still, I'll probably hold off for a month or two after the vaccine becomes available. Probably wise anyway.

    Replies: @That Would Be Telling

    Is anybody else just slightly creeped out by the way RNA vaccines work? As I understand it, the vaccine itself acts sort of like a virus, in that the RNA is enclosed in lipid globules that are taken up by your own cells, which then start manufacturing and pumping out the Coronavirus spike protein. This is in contrast to a traditional killed virus vaccine, where the body’s immune system reacts to a foreign intrusion in the usual way.

    So, how many of your body’s cells does the vaccine “infect?” Which cells are they, and how are they distributed? How long do they continue pumping our virus protein?

    Not at all! For the more you mimic nature, the less you’re going to get either unexpected results, or ones worse than getting the real wild type virus, don’t forget that’s the eventual alternative to not getting vaccinated. In theory, given their extreme precision, they should be the safest vaccines yet, as you said in a part I clipped, this can only be determined by the trials, and the first cohorts who get vaccinated under the Emergency Use Authorizations we assume the FDA will be issuing.

    Note there are many more types of vaccine than killed virus ones, the very first for smallpox was a live virus, different than smallpox but giving immunity to the latter. Current attenuated live virus vaccines that are given to “everyone” include the ones for measles, mumps, rubella, and chickenpox (which protects you from shingles, trust me, you want to avoid that!). So these ones do the full virus thing, they’re just adjusted so you don’t get a full blown infection.

    I like the word “hijack” instead of infect, all of the wild type virus, the mRNA vaccines and the 2 leading Western viral vector vaccines do roughly the same thing. And that should give a much better immune system response, because they all look roughly the same to the immune system. On the other hand, a full spectrum response might harm more people compared to a inactivated/killed virus, or proteins harvested from one like our flu viruses.

    A theoretical thing you imply to watch out for is that people don’t get COVID-19 by it being injected into a muscle, you’re right to be suspicious. But SARS-CoV-2 is known to travel to all sorts of places in the body, there’s even a very real possibility it’ll sterilize up to 20% of the men who get symptomatic (it’s been observed to take a long time to clear from the testes, and given the pain response, it can’t be doing any good there). So we’ll see.

    For “How long do they continue pumping our virus protein?,” only until your adaptive immune system gears up to terminate these hijacked cells with extreme prejudice. Of course, any time we poke the immune system with a stick (or more like wack it with a stick for Moderna with its current dosing), statistically bad things will happen. And our immune systems are wild enough other things can happen, see dengue for one example where multiple strains are involved.

    My bottom line: the theory is good, the practice so far is good, I’m in the very lowest priority cohort (< 65 and no comorbidities aside from being a bit overweight), we wait and see, remembering that people are dying in numbers not seen for a century (and that's with a century's advances in general medicine), COVID-19 seems to be at minimum 30 times worse than a normal seasonal flu.

  114. The rate of death from Covid in the group most at risk of it — sickly, weak persons 80 years old and older — is, according to a Swedish physician, lower than the rate of death, in that same group, from the common cold and its complications.

    See:

    sebastianrushworth.com
    .

  115. @That Would Be Telling
    @kpkinsunnyphiladelphia


    That little Napoleonic squirt Fauci was initially talking about 18 to 24 months. That’s due largely to the unnecessarily lengthy traditional Phase 3 part, where you have to track infections for months.
     
    My impression is that the normal year plus length of these trials starting with Phase I is to fine tune the dosing, something Moderna probably did a bad job of due to everyone doing this as speed and some unlucky guessing (the word from Phase 3 participants is to "man up" and set aside a one day after your 2nd dose, you may need it; all comes from vaccines by definition poking the immune system with a stick, or in this case more like whacking it with one).

    Note also the Phase 3 trials will continue for months, this very first set of results is only enough for an Emergency Use Authorization (EUA) application to the FDA, and only the highest priority people will be able to get it while their and more Phase 3 data safety and efficacy data is collected. For example, we don't yet have enough data to know how effective they're going to be on the elderly.

    Replies: @FPD72

    My impression is that the normal year plus length of these trials starting with Phase I is to fine tune the dosing, something Moderna probably did a bad job of due to everyone doing this as speed and some unlucky guessing (the word from Phase 3 participants is to “man up” and set aside a one day after your 2nd dose, you may need it; all comes from vaccines by definition poking the immune system with a stick, or in this case more like whacking it with one).

    Note also the Phase 3 trials will continue for months, this very first set of results is only enough for an Emergency Use Authorization (EUA) application to the FDA, and only the highest priority people will be able to get it while their and more Phase 3 data safety and efficacy data is collected. For example, we don’t yet have enough data to know how effective they’re going to be on the elderly.

    Good comments. I would add that allowing a day for recovery from the Pfizer second vaccination is also a good idea. I am in the Pfizer trial and after the second shot I ran a fever for four days and had chills and joint pain for two days.

    I certainly hope the Pfizer vaccine is effective for the elderly. I’m seventy and three weeks after the second injection I went to an independent lab for a test. I tested positive for antibodies but have no idea what the concentration might be.

    My thinking is I’m as protected as I’ll ever be so I have left house arrest and am living a normal life: church, indoor shooting range, shopping, eating at restaurants, babysitting and roughhousing with grandkids, etc. I’m continuing with vitamins C and D, zinc, and some other supplements for general immune system strength. Although I believe they are next to worthless, I wear a mask when indoors in public places to conform with state mandates and property owner requirements. Not as much as a sniffle or cough since my “escape.”

    I realize that anecdotes aren’t data but this is my experience

    • Replies: @That Would Be Telling
    @FPD72


    I would add that allowing a day for recovery from the Pfizer second vaccination is also a good idea. I am in the Pfizer trial and after the second shot I ran a fever for four days and had chills and joint pain for two days.

    I certainly hope the Pfizer vaccine is effective for the elderly. I’m seventy and three weeks after the second injection I went to an independent lab for a test. I tested positive for antibodies but have no idea what the concentration might be.
     
    Anecdotes for sure, but I find them very encouraging to hear given your age. Your side effect profile is typical, means the body is reacting to that second shot as if you've got an infection, which after all is exactly the objective of the vaccine! And given that you had a significant reaction, plus the confirmation from your antibodies test, it's a safe assumption you're safe for the time being.

    Note for some time pretty much any significant antibody concentration should be enough, the immune system is primed to deal with a serious multi-day existing infection, it'll just be shooting a few invaders. Once those fade and you depend on your memory cells being able to recreate them pronto, I don't know, especially for the elderly, but see all the special vaccines for those starting at age 50 that you only have to take once.

    You of course need to pay attention to what we learn about how long it protects people in general, since if it's not decades as we hope you'll statistically be at the leading edge of loss of efficacy, but returning to as normal life a life as our betters allow strikes me as a good decision.
  116. @Jonathan Mason
    As far as I know the governments of all countries that are developing vaccines for Covid-19 have accelerated their approval systems so as to get the vaccine out as soon as possible.

    The Russians have been very creative with the registration of their Sputnik V vaccine.

    Are there any examples of governments where vaccines are being developed that have refused to cut red tape and accelerate registration processes?

    While Trump government is to be lauded for prioritizing the development of vaccines, would any other administration have done anything different?

    Replies: @J.Ross

    Larry Elder had a quote from an Obama staffer who described the administration response to an earlier plague as a well-informed well-intentioned diasaster: there’s also Obama’s brave decision to abandon quarantine for ebola.

  117. @Guy De Champlagne

    But the announcement of a second successful vaccine in record time would be an impressive vindication of the Trump Administration’s determination to focus on removing regulatory roadblocks to development of a vaccine.
     
    You'd have to have some kind of argument showing how removing the regulations helped, and then not have some safety issue that the regulations would have prevented. Then Trump will be vindicated.

    Frankly, you telling me that Trump slashed regulations to ram this vaccine through personally makes me even less inclined to get it. Even without any regulatory changes, there's going to be so much financial and political pressure to push these vaccines through that rational judgments about their safety will become next to impossible. I'm also in a very low risk group so I have the luxury of just forgoing the vaccine entirely. But it will be a very difficult decision for many people. Especially since all vaccines are subject to the free rider problem, where if enough other people get it you can just forgo it and not have to deal with any potential side effects.

    Replies: @That Would Be Telling

    But the announcement of a second successful vaccine in record time would be an impressive vindication of the Trump Administration’s determination to focus on removing regulatory roadblocks to development of a vaccine.

    You’d have to have some kind of argument showing how removing the regulations helped

    Can anyone point to regulations that have been “removed?”

    By far the biggest thing Trump has done, beside constantly pushing, is Operation Warp Speed, a Manhattan Project style effort to manufacture millions of doses of vaccine candidates prior to our knowing if they’re safe and effective (notably, Pfizer/BioNTech did not sign up for this, instead just a big purchase guarantee if they’re ready by the end of the year).

    One thing being glossed over is that the regulatory process is just starting. This milestone by Pfizer/BioNTech? Only enough, after another week of safety data (enough people two months after one week after their second dose), to apply for an Emergency Use Authorization (EUA), a title I hope speaks for itself. It’s not close to be approved for general populations, just initial high priority cohorts like those most likely to accidentally give it to the most vulnerable, and the most vulnerable. The process to approve it for the general population depends on watching the Phase 3 population for a while, and those first cohorts who get it.

  118. @epebble
    @candid_observer

    By the time the vaccine is ready for wide distribution, we would have already reached herd immunity. Already, more than 10 million are known to be infected. The ones that are infected but didn't bother to get tested (because they are asymptomatic or mildly symptomatic or just don't care to stand in line from 5 a.m. to 4 p.m. in some far away place) is many times that, some have speculated it could be 10 times that. With the fast spread between now and January due to holiday travel and gatherings, we should reach herd immunity by the end of spring. Looking at New Jersey, a population fatality ratio of 0.2% seems to be the upper limit before herd immunity kicks in.

    https://www.washingtonpost.com/health/2020/06/25/coronavirus-cases-10-times-larger/

    Replies: @That Would Be Telling

    By the time the vaccine is ready for wide distribution, we would have already reached herd immunity.

    Real world example of this happening with prior diseases?

    It’s definitely possible, but it would only happen to diseases that die out on their own, a bit like original SARS where its lower infectivity and higher lethality made it less capable of spreading. With all the asymptomatic or nearly so COVID-19 cases, at least some of which drive symptomatic cases that are absent isolation better at spreading the virus, I’d say it’s safer to bet this will always be with us like so many other diseases over millennia for which we have “eternal” vaccines (vs. for example the flu). Smallpox, which is thought to be roughly as infective (R0) as COVID-19, took a public health Maximum Effort to eradicate from the world. For something sandwiching the lethality of COVID-19 while being at the upper end of Ro estimates for COVID-19, perhaps look at rubella (German measles).

  119. @That Would Be Telling
    @415 reasons


    Presumably the same number of doses of the Moderna one. Instead of talking national lockdowns we should be talking about getting every vulnerable person in the states with the worst outbreaks vaccinated before Inauguration Day.
     
    Might be more for Moderna, Pfizer refused up front Operation Warp Speed money while I believe Moderna accepted it, so they might have more doses ready by the time their Emergency Use Authorization (EUA) application presumably gets approved by the FDA (and then come the steps to get it approved for the general population).

    We also can't yet know how well any of these vaccines protect the elderly, we have to wait for more of the Phase 3 participants to get symptomatic COVID-19 or not. So I suppose you could make a case that Team Biden's "the beatings will continue" approach is the best we have for a while. Or they would be so if their policies focused on protecting the most vulnerable, instead of "doing something" the BAD ORANGE MAN wouldn't or didn't.

    Or as Richard "wretchardthecast" Fernandez put it "The cost of politicizing the disease is it locks people into positions. In fact dealing with an epidemic is an exercise in adaptation."

    Replies: @415 reasons

    There are indications it works in the elderly. They get good antibody responses. https://www.bloomberg.com/news/articles/2020-08-26/moderna-will-present-vaccine-data-in-older-people-at-cdc-meeting

    Might not be quite as effective as under 65s but there is a strong expectation it would save a huge number of lives. There’s no reason to delay at this point. It’s arguable whether the framing of the libs around the numbers of deaths has been fair or tendentious, but if you could do something (relatively) easy like roll out the vaccines ASAP that seems likely to save thousands of lives and compare it to something that is divisive, expensive, and less likely to work like a second national lockdown, to me it’s a no brainer.

  120. @utu
    @Mr. Anon

    "Who says they even have similar demographics anymore." - Yes, Norway has about 1.2 times less very old people than Sweden. This is very long way to explain away the 11 fold lower death rate.

    "Norway probably took care to protect their old people". - Yes, it did by having a lockdown.

    Japan doesn’t have universal masking. - 80% Japanese wore masks religiously.

    You can’t even see on case number curves when mask-mandates went into effect. - see Christopher Leffler et al. (June 15, 2020) and Alexander Karaivanov et al. (October 16, 2020.)


    Association of country-wide coronavirus mortality with demographics, testing, lockdowns, and public wearing of masks. Update August 4, 2020.
    https://www.medrxiv.org/content/10.1101/2020.05.22.20109231v5

    In countries with cultural norms or government policies supporting public mask-wearing, per-capita coronavirus mortality increased on average by just 15.8% each week, as compared with 62.1% each week in remaining countries.
    Conclusions. Societal norms and government policies supporting the wearing of masks by the public, as well as international travel controls, are independently associated with lower per-capita mortality from COVID-19.
     


    Face Masks, Public Policies and Slowing the Spread of COVID-19: Evidence from Canada (October 16, 2020)
    Alexander Karaivanov, Shih En Lu, Hitoshi Shigeoka, Cong Chen, Stephanie Pamplona
    https://www.medrxiv.org/content/10.1101/2020.09.24.20201178v2

    We find that mask mandates are associated with a 25 percent or larger weekly reduction in new COVID-19 cases in July and August, relative to the trend in absence of mask mandate. Additional analysis with province-level data provides corroborating evidence.
     

    Replies: @Mr. Anon

    Studies find………….

    You sound like an NPR listener.

    There are lots of studies from which you can cherry pick.

  121. @utu
    @Sean

    "In May an infectious disease epidemiologist and a professor of theoretical epidemiology at the Department of Zoology, University of Oxford estimated the COVID-19 infection fatality rate as less than one in a thousand, and closer to one in ten thousand. Her name is Sunetra Gupta. " - Estimate? No, she assumed that value as an input parameter to her model to get results that people who she worked for wanted. Her paper was a part of the last ditch effort of the ' herd immunity crowd' to stop the countermeasures and lockdown.


    Oxford Model Touting ‘Herd Immunity’ was Promoted by PR Agency Tied to Ministry of Defence and Nudge Unit
    https://bylinetimes.com/2020/03/26/the-coronavirus-crisis-oxford-model-touting-herd-immunity-was-promoted-by-pr-agency-tied-to-ministry-of-defence-and-nudge-unit/
     

    Behavioural Scientists told Government to use ‘Herd Immunity’ to Justify Business-As-Usual https://bylinetimes.com/2020/03/23/covid-19-special-investigation-part-three-behavioural-scientists-told-government-to-use-herd-immunity-to-justify-business-as-usual/
     
    The PR firm with ties to MoD and SAGE gets the editor of the FT on the phone who enthusiastically writes on March 24 about the news according to Gupta:

    Coronavirus may have infected half of UK population — Oxford study. (March 24)
    https://www.ft.com/content/5ff6469a-6dd8-11ea-89df-41bea055720b
     
    Many experts object:

    expert reaction to unpublished paper modelling what percentage of the UK population may have been exposed to COVID-19
    https://www.sciencemediacentre.org/expert-reaction-to-unpublished-paper-modelling-what-percentage-of-the-uk-population-may-have-been-exposed-to-covid-19/
     
    and the FT gets skeptical:

    Why it’s too tempting to believe the Oxford study on coronavirus (March 27)
    https://www.ft.com/content/14df8908-6f47-11ea-9bca-bf503995cd6f
     
    which is followed by a critical letter from six epidemiology professors several days later:

    Letter: The Oxford study figure has no empirical justification. (March 30)
    https://www.ft.com/content/ebab9fcc-6e8d-11ea-9bca-bf503995cd6f
     
    Sunetra Gupta destroyed her reputation.

    https://twitter.com/econhedge/status/1316284836278042624

    Replies: @Mr. Anon

    Sunetra Gupta destroyed her reputation.

    That’s funny, coming from you.

  122. Hmm, it looks like we may end up with a lot of different vaccines. Does anyone know what typically happens if a person gets two or more different vaccines for the same disease? I can imagine people doing this, and I can imagine that it might: 1) give you greater protection; 2) cause problems; or 3) not give you anything extra. In order of likelihood I’d guess 3), then 1), then 2), but that isn’t based on anything solid. (And in fact the effect might be different for different people).

  123. @FPD72
    @That Would Be Telling


    My impression is that the normal year plus length of these trials starting with Phase I is to fine tune the dosing, something Moderna probably did a bad job of due to everyone doing this as speed and some unlucky guessing (the word from Phase 3 participants is to “man up” and set aside a one day after your 2nd dose, you may need it; all comes from vaccines by definition poking the immune system with a stick, or in this case more like whacking it with one).

    Note also the Phase 3 trials will continue for months, this very first set of results is only enough for an Emergency Use Authorization (EUA) application to the FDA, and only the highest priority people will be able to get it while their and more Phase 3 data safety and efficacy data is collected. For example, we don’t yet have enough data to know how effective they’re going to be on the elderly.
     
    Good comments. I would add that allowing a day for recovery from the Pfizer second vaccination is also a good idea. I am in the Pfizer trial and after the second shot I ran a fever for four days and had chills and joint pain for two days.

    I certainly hope the Pfizer vaccine is effective for the elderly. I’m seventy and three weeks after the second injection I went to an independent lab for a test. I tested positive for antibodies but have no idea what the concentration might be.

    My thinking is I’m as protected as I’ll ever be so I have left house arrest and am living a normal life: church, indoor shooting range, shopping, eating at restaurants, babysitting and roughhousing with grandkids, etc. I’m continuing with vitamins C and D, zinc, and some other supplements for general immune system strength. Although I believe they are next to worthless, I wear a mask when indoors in public places to conform with state mandates and property owner requirements. Not as much as a sniffle or cough since my “escape.”

    I realize that anecdotes aren’t data but this is my experience

    Replies: @That Would Be Telling

    I would add that allowing a day for recovery from the Pfizer second vaccination is also a good idea. I am in the Pfizer trial and after the second shot I ran a fever for four days and had chills and joint pain for two days.

    I certainly hope the Pfizer vaccine is effective for the elderly. I’m seventy and three weeks after the second injection I went to an independent lab for a test. I tested positive for antibodies but have no idea what the concentration might be.

    Anecdotes for sure, but I find them very encouraging to hear given your age. Your side effect profile is typical, means the body is reacting to that second shot as if you’ve got an infection, which after all is exactly the objective of the vaccine! And given that you had a significant reaction, plus the confirmation from your antibodies test, it’s a safe assumption you’re safe for the time being.

    Note for some time pretty much any significant antibody concentration should be enough, the immune system is primed to deal with a serious multi-day existing infection, it’ll just be shooting a few invaders. Once those fade and you depend on your memory cells being able to recreate them pronto, I don’t know, especially for the elderly, but see all the special vaccines for those starting at age 50 that you only have to take once.

    You of course need to pay attention to what we learn about how long it protects people in general, since if it’s not decades as we hope you’ll statistically be at the leading edge of loss of efficacy, but returning to as normal life a life as our betters allow strikes me as a good decision.

  124. Trump should invite to a White House Rose Garden ceremony various dignitaries to be inoculated on-screen with their choice of the Pfizer or Moderna vaccine such as Joe Biden, Ivanka Trump, Mike Pence, Kamala Harris, Nancy Pelosi, Mitch McConnell, John Roberts, Sonia Sotomayor, LeBron James, Tom Brady, Steven Spielberg, Christopher Nolan, and so forth.

    They’d all decline, of course because … Trump.

  125. @Buzz Mohawk
    ... and Steve Sailer.

    Whichever vaccine it is, it really should go first (and perhaps only) to people who actually are at risk from this and all other corona viruses: the elderly and people with serious health problems or susceptibilities.

    The rest of us should go on with our lives -- and should have been allowed to from the beginning of this hysteria.

    Also, it's really funny how presidents and such get credit or blame when things they really have little to do with go well or badly. Sure, Trump approved an accelerated plan and the corresponding $billions and coordination with Big Pharma, but, like JFK, he didn't exactly build a Saturn V and fly to the moon -- nor could any other president have.

    Same goes for the way presidents either take credit or blame for massive economies that they can't and don't control.

    But people need kings, gods and heroes to displace things onto, apparently.

    Replies: @Joe Stalin, @res, @DRA

    I hear that minorities are more susceptible to Covid 19, does that mean that they are among those that get first crack at the vaccine?

  126. @415 reasons
    It will also work. I would be surprised if the actual efficacy (of both Pfizer and Moderna’s vaccines) isn’t more like 95-97%. Almost everyone who got these vaccines in early phase trials got highly neutralizing antibodies. Highly neutralizing antibodies protect humans from COVID. This has been known for months which makes the wait to roll them out frustrating. We won’t have years of safety follow up anyways. We need to take a calculated risk as a societal or at last let individuals take a calculated risk: resuming normal activities and not getting COVID is worth the remote risk of some long term, rare side effect of getting a two-time injection with mRNA. To me it’s an absolute no brained and I would take it tomorrow if I could.

    I live in a relatively low prevalence area and am young enough that I would probably be fine if I got COVID so this is more of an annoyance than a true burden, but the way liberals have been or pretended to have been so frightened of a vaccine has been craven, stupid and shameful. At the beginning of the pandemic I thought the “the libs love lockdowns for their own sake” argument was overwrought but now I think it’s absolutely true. They don’t really want a solution to the pandemic, they want a way to wear the hair shirt and virtue signal more intensely than ever by making it virtuous to be pathologically housebound and pathological to want to engage in the normal activities of life.

    Replies: @Anonymous, @reactionry, @Libre

    If they work, then herd immunity works, but they tell us it doesn’t, so the vaccine can’t work.

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