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Trump's Northern White Working Class Strategy Went Hunting Where the Electoral Votes Were
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Screenshot 2016-11-09 16.47.58

Here’s a data visualization map from the NYT of changes in vote from 2012 to 2016 at the county level: red arrows to the right are counties where Trump did better than Romney.

As you can see, most of Trump’s gains came exactly where he needed them: in the greater Great Lakes area, plus just enough in Florida. In a November 12, 2012 article in VDARE, I identified what you might call the Big Ten football conference region that stretches from Iowa to Pennsylvania as the key to Romney’s doing so badly in the Electoral Votes last time:

According to Reuters, Romney lost the Slippery Six states [Pennsylvania, Ohio, Michigan, Wisconsin, Minnesota, and Iowa] because (exactly as VDARE.com warned repeatedly while digging white share data out of reluctant tracking polls …), he did badly there among white voters—winning only 52 percent, six points worse than nationally.

Most notably, Romney did terribly among the white working class in these six states. Thus he did only two points worse among whites with college degrees in the Slippery Six than he did nationally. But among the white “some college” component, he came in six points worse than nationally. And among the white “no college” voters, he performed 11 points worse than across the country—finishing tied with Obama.

In fact (although sample sizes are getting small), Romney even appears to have suffered the ignominy of a reverse gender gap among no-college whites in the Slippery Six—winning 51.4 percent of the women, but only 48 percent of the white working class men.

So the hidden story of the 2012 election just might come down to Romney not appealing to blue collar white guys in this swing region. Or you could attribute it to the immensely rich Obama campaign’s relentless negative advertising all summer depicting Romney as an outsourcing zillionaire.

But, how much did Romney offer working class whites in this swing region?

I suspect Romney was hurt badly by his 2009 op-ed that appeared to argue against bailing out General Motors: a real old-fashioned issue (e.g., my dad’s employer, Lockheed, was bailed out by Congress in 1971 on an extremely close vote, and Lee Iacocca became a potential presidential contender a decade later by first getting a bailout for Chrysler and then paying it back).

The strongest part of Trump’s business career was building huge tangible things like his 2009 tower in Chicago, which working class people admire. Romney’s business career was more abstract, which the college educated respect, but it often wound up with having the depressing tangible effect of a plant in the U.S. being shut down.

To his credit, Romney didn’t seem to find his business career all that fulfilling and got out of it quite early (insiders wondered why somebody as well-positioned as Romney had been to become a billionaire wasn’t a billionaire) to go into public service full time.

 
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  1. They don’t call it the great white north for nothing.

  2. elephant in the room: Howard Stern.

    Immensely popular among older white men. 45-65. I don’t think much relevance to men under 30 (once he went to xm he dropped off radar).

    I’m not shocked that Romney (Trees are the right size) who didn’t have any cultural relevance to Great Lakes white men did poorly.

    These guys (50 to 70) aren’t racist, but there dads were and they were raised in the 1960 and 70s and know that black people can dig it to. So they could be cool with voting for Obama.

    HRC doubling down on any contact with women being rape really could set up the Howard Stern set. Particularly rich since her husband is an expert at that.

    • Replies: @Maj. Kong
    @charlie

    Mitt Romney's father was the Governor of Michigan back in the 1960s. The younger Romney's own problem is that he's a rootless cosmopolitan, while Trump is the quintessential NYer (before post-65 mass immigration).

  3. Trump’s big advantage was he was a northern white populist. The New York thing, ironically, kept him from being geographically limited to the South. Sort of the way (Bill) Clinton being from Arkansas helped–being a blue-state Republican or red-state Democrat gives you crossover appeal.

    • Replies: @syonredux
    @SFG


    Trump’s big advantage was he was a northern white populist. The New York thing, ironically, kept him from being geographically limited to the South. Sort of the way (Bill) Clinton being from Arkansas helped–being a blue-state Republican or red-state Democrat gives you crossover appeal.
     
    Yeah, I'm quite intrigued by the fact that Trump is the first NY-affiliated president since FDR (and FDR, of course, belonged to a very different stratum of NY society, the old WASP elite).

    Replies: @Almost Missouri

  4. It wasn’t that Trump got more whites than Romney (but Hillary did far worse than Obama), but where he got those whites. Expect the Rust Belt to turn redder as the Sun Belt turns bluer as it browns out.

    • Replies: @Polynikes
    @GW

    He got different whites. He didn't get turnout from the establishment types. In Wisconsin reliable establishment counties (WOW counties) were down 10+%. Trump made up for it with rural working class types.

    He had similar problems in Ohio , FL, Texas, and AZ thanks to the Kasich, Rubio, Bush, and McCain machines, respectively.

    In places where he got both establishment and trump independents, like Indiana, he was up several percent and had some extra turnout from Romney's numbers.

    #nevertrump had an effect. Luckily, it wasn't a deciding effect.

    Replies: @Travis

    , @Anonymous
    @GW

    "Expect the Rust Belt to turn redder as the Sun Belt turns bluer as it browns out."

    Why is the South browning out? Can this be stopped?

    Replies: @Mr. Anon

  5. Trump supporter (from before his first primary debate until the proud moment of filling in his name at the ballot box yesterday), and I’m here to eat crow.

    I thought, and stated on at least one occasion on this site, that HRC would defeat him. Not because I didn’t like him – although he’s something of a buffoon, I’ve always liked his candidacy and what he stands for, and always knew I’d vote for him – but because I thought the media influence was too big to overcome. Knew that moments like the “pussy grabbing” tape would pop up. Also thought that the GOP’s refusal to really back him with money and ground game infrastructure would be fatal.

    What can I say? I was flat wrong. A lot of posters here predicting a Trump win were not wild-eyed optimists or just taking in information from their Alt-Right bubble. You guys knew what was up – millions of rust-belt Americans weren’t willing to be led around by the nose by their DC / Madison Avenue “betters.”

    Not that anyone cares what I think, but because I said I’d admit it if I were wrong, here I am. Happy to have been mistaken. MAGA.

    • Replies: @CrunchybutRealistCon
    @MKP

    Was a bit of a wild-eyed optimist myself, thinking Trump would get 51-52% of the overall vote. However, he will probably end up with 48%. Winning 30 & 1/2 states is impressive though. The big mystery is why he didn't rack up higher vote totals in NY, TX, & CA. NY has elected Republican governors not long ago, and CA passed Prop 187 in '94 with >55% of the vote, plus it elected the Terminator as Gov a decade later. How could Trump not get at least 43-45% there? The tsunami of negative ads and lack of help from many state GOP chairs (esp in CO) was no doubt a problemo. HRC probably outspent him by 3x on ads.

    Replies: @Alec Leamas, @Dr. X

    , @TempoNick
    @MKP

    The alt-right media bubble kept many of us from going wobbly. If not for them picking apart polls and covering things the MSM refused to cover, it would be easy to get brainwashed into believing Trump was a lost cause. But when you are seeing poll results using D+15 samples, no matter how they are adjusted, you know someone is trying to commit a big, fat fraud!

    , @Mr. Anon
    @MKP

    "A lot of posters here predicting a Trump win were not wild-eyed optimists or just taking in information from their Alt-Right bubble."

    The Alt-Right bubble turned out to be a lot more tuned-in to the election than well known pollsters like Nate Silver or Larry Sabato. Jazzhand McFeels and Halberstam of TRS predicted a lot of it dead on.

  6. • Replies: @grapesoda
    @Anonymous

    Mainlining your impotent leftist tears is the perfect start to my day

  7. The downside of relentless racial identity conditioning of Blacks cost Hillary the election. Trump pulled in a lot less votes than Obama did in his wins, but despite the massive GOTV ground game and campaigning by Obama, too many Blacks didn’t bother to turn out and vote for her. Bigger urban turnout in states like Michigan, Florida, Missouri, Wisconsin and Pennsylvania might have tipped the results to her, but many Blacks just can’t be bothered to particularly care about anyone outside their own tribe. We’ll see what happens in 2020 when the White percentage of the population has shrunk further, and perhaps someone like Cory Booker is somewhere on the ticket.

    • Replies: @oddsbodkins
    @Alfa158

    Yes, the racial-identity conditioning of blacks was pretty effective at conditioning whites.

    But the other half of the problem was that the Clinton wing of the Democratic party has so completely turned their backs on the working class. It takes a tremendous feat of cognitive dissonance to accept someone who gets paid 225k for secret speeches to GS as committed to helping working people.

    It will be interesting to see if northern whites continue to vote like southern whites. My suspicion is that Trump won't or can't do much to help them and that in eight years they will be as disappointed with him as blacks are with Obama now.

    Replies: @Anon, @TempoNick

    , @Olorin
    @Alfa158

    Kamala Harris.

    She can grab the dot-Indians on both coasts' megalopolises as well.

    Replies: @rec1man

  8. As you can see, most of Trump’s gains came exactly where he needed them: in the greater Great Lakes area …

    For the Dems, the gales of November came early.

    • Replies: @Intelligent Dasein
    @Jenner Ickham Errican

    Gordon Lightfoot was the very first thing I thought of when I saw the map. His music always makes me think of Trump's forgotten Americans.

    Replies: @Connecticut Famer, @Olorin

  9. Anonymous • Disclaimer says:

    Steve, how’d you vote on Prop. 60? It was defeated yesterday:

    “No condoms needed! Voters back bare porn stars”

    http://mynewsla.com/government/2016/11/08/no-condoms-needed-voters-back-bare-porn-stars/

    A measure that would require adult-film performers to wear condoms during sex scenes, and make producers and film distributors liable for violations, was being defeated by voters Tuesday night.

    Proposition 60 was strongly opposed by the adult-film industry, including producers and many performers, and was primarily backed by the Hollywood-based AIDS Healthcare Foundation, which spearheaded a similar law that was approved by Los Angeles County voters in 2012.

    In addition to requiring condoms, the measure would also require adult- film producers to pay for performer vaccinations, testing and medical exams for sexually transmitted diseases. It would also mandate that a notification be posted at film sites, and film producers would be required to obtain health licenses. The proposition imposes liability for violations on producers, distributors and performers who have a financial interest in the film, as well as on talent agents who refer performers to non-compliant producers.

    Early vote tallies showed the measure being defeated by 53 percent of voters.

    • Replies: @Steve Sailer
    @Anonymous

    LA County passed this condom requirement a few years ago, so I've heard the porn industry is relocating to Miami.

    Replies: @Yojimbo/Zatoichi

    , @athEIst
    @Anonymous

    And Steve, as is his right, doesn't answer the question.

  10. @Anonymous
    Steve, how'd you vote on Prop. 60? It was defeated yesterday:

    "No condoms needed! Voters back bare porn stars"

    http://mynewsla.com/government/2016/11/08/no-condoms-needed-voters-back-bare-porn-stars/

    A measure that would require adult-film performers to wear condoms during sex scenes, and make producers and film distributors liable for violations, was being defeated by voters Tuesday night.

    Proposition 60 was strongly opposed by the adult-film industry, including producers and many performers, and was primarily backed by the Hollywood-based AIDS Healthcare Foundation, which spearheaded a similar law that was approved by Los Angeles County voters in 2012.

    In addition to requiring condoms, the measure would also require adult- film producers to pay for performer vaccinations, testing and medical exams for sexually transmitted diseases. It would also mandate that a notification be posted at film sites, and film producers would be required to obtain health licenses. The proposition imposes liability for violations on producers, distributors and performers who have a financial interest in the film, as well as on talent agents who refer performers to non-compliant producers.

    Early vote tallies showed the measure being defeated by 53 percent of voters.
     

    Replies: @Steve Sailer, @athEIst

    LA County passed this condom requirement a few years ago, so I’ve heard the porn industry is relocating to Miami.

    • Replies: @Yojimbo/Zatoichi
    @Steve Sailer

    Technically, the only two states that permit adult videos to be produced are CA and NH. Some production exists in FL but technically it is flouting the law.

    Replies: @Maj. Kong, @snorlax

  11. OT Looks like BLM is back on the payroll in NYC and six other cities.

  12. Mitt Romney reminded everyone of the Uncle Pennybags Republican caricature from the 1930s-1950s. Secular working class voters rightly decided that there was little he would do for them.

  13. One thread that I’ve noticed through this election is how Dems have finally agreed to dump the last vestiges of pre-Clinton/Bush economic ideas. You had lots of pundits conflating trade protectionism and wanting jobs sourced here with xenophilia. Example from this of many dissections of rural voters published this season: “America will survive Trump’s campaign, and the temptations of protectionism and xenophobia he offers.” People just roll those two things together casually now, without a trace of irony. I wonder how many Dems realized that they’re now against what used to be their standard policy.

    Tuesday was a repudiation of Richard Florida economic theory. A lot of voters decided this country can support only so many Boulder, CO and Asheville, NC -type places. Whole chunks of this country aren’t going to become tech giants, distribution centers for Amazon, or make a creative class magically appear. And they won’t benefit from finance. I wonder if anyone is going to give them credit for being more realistic than the elites who despise them.

    • Replies: @Maj. Kong
    @yaqub the mad scientist

    Its not so cut and dry, yet.

    NC voted out a Republican Governor, and New Hampshire likely voted out a Republican Senator (one who disavowed Trump).

    We probably should credit Trump for dragging Toomey, Johnson, Young and Blunt over the finish line.

    At the same time, California voted 54% against eliminating capital punishment.

    http://www.slate.com/blogs/the_slatest/2016/11/09/california_keeps_the_death_penalty_and_increases_executions.html

    Replies: @Clyde, @(((Owen)))

  14. @GW
    It wasn't that Trump got more whites than Romney (but Hillary did far worse than Obama), but where he got those whites. Expect the Rust Belt to turn redder as the Sun Belt turns bluer as it browns out.

    Replies: @Polynikes, @Anonymous

    He got different whites. He didn’t get turnout from the establishment types. In Wisconsin reliable establishment counties (WOW counties) were down 10+%. Trump made up for it with rural working class types.

    He had similar problems in Ohio , FL, Texas, and AZ thanks to the Kasich, Rubio, Bush, and McCain machines, respectively.

    In places where he got both establishment and trump independents, like Indiana, he was up several percent and had some extra turnout from Romney’s numbers.

    #nevertrump had an effect. Luckily, it wasn’t a deciding effect.

    • Replies: @Travis
    @Polynikes

    #nevertrump certainly was a big reason Republican Governor Gary Johnson running on the Libertarian ticket tripled his votes from 4 years ago. the majority of his extra 3.5 million votes came from republican leaning white voters. Probably 97% of those who voted for Gary Johnson were white. He must be a real racist to have such supporters.

    Replies: @Yojimbo/Zatoichi

  15. Steve, Perhaps in a few weeks, when the final official vote totals are posted, you could give us your take on how many votes the NeverTrump & GOPe crew cost DJT. A quick look on politico suggests that they probably cost him about 2% of the overall vote, and several states (NH, ME, MN, NV & CO). This assumes that about 2/3rds NeverTrump votes went to Johnson & McMuffin tickets; the other 1/3rd to HRC. Most importantly NeverTrump & their media allies may have helped HRC to edge DJT in the overall vote % by 0.2%. Am guessing that most of that difference could be accounted for by her huge pluralities in CA, WA, NY & IL. Alas, the big reveal a few days ago on Cavuto’s show that Obama was equivocating about, or even approving of illegal aliens voting begs a much bigger question: how many illegal aliens &/or non-citizens illegally cast ballots? Since estimates of the illegal population range as high as 60M, if you add in another 20M here legally, it would not be not crazy to say that somewhere in the range of 0.05 to 2.0% of a noncitizen population of 30 to 80M would be a possibility (15,000 to 1,600,000). With voter ID laws being blocked in big states and citizenship status rarely verified, it would seem easy enough to cast dirty ballots. There has got to be a way to tease decent estimates out of the raw polling data.

  16. A bit OT, but concerning northern states, I crossed the border this morning and the Canadian Border Patrol had extra checkpoints with squads of armed agents leading up to the usual border crossing. Seems they’re worried about some of the people who are fleeing due to election results. I’ve never seen this before, and they weren’t messing around.

    • Replies: @Almost Missouri
    @Bill P

    LOL. I wouldn't want all those liberal nation-wreckers entering my country either.

    Maybe we can offer them all free transport to Svalbard. No visa required.

  17. @Jenner Ickham Errican

    As you can see, most of Trump’s gains came exactly where he needed them: in the greater Great Lakes area …
     
    For the Dems, the gales of November came early.

    Replies: @Intelligent Dasein

    Gordon Lightfoot was the very first thing I thought of when I saw the map. His music always makes me think of Trump’s forgotten Americans.

    • Replies: @Connecticut Famer
    @Intelligent Dasein

    My man Gord, the Canadian Troubadour. You have good taste in music my friend.

    , @Olorin
    @Intelligent Dasein

    WotEF always hit home personally, and always was a favorite of mine. GL too. But this is my favorite GL, 1967, studio, zero fancy production:

    https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=Vsmb9B4e0gI

    The incomparable Red Shea extruding gossamer-heavy-metal.

  18. Anonymous • Disclaimer says:

    “Man Wearing ‘Jewmerica’ T-Shirt Never Dreamed He’d See This Day”

    http://www.theonion.com/article/man-wearing-jewmerica-t-shirt-never-dreamed-hed-se-54666

    Feeling a mixture of intense pride and abject disbelief after news networks called the 2016 presidential election in favor of Donald Trump, local man Terry Williams, who is currently wearing a T-shirt adorned with the word “Jewmerica,” told reporters late Tuesday night that he never dreamed he’d see this day during his lifetime. “This is so incredible—not in a million years did I think I’d ever get to watch a historic moment like this,” said the unemployed 43-year-old, who has worn the T-shirt featuring the Star of David overlaid atop the United States flag throughout the 2016 election season as he closely followed Trump’s campaign for the presidency and encouraged voters like him to head to the polls by writing regular posts on white nationalist forums. “I won’t forget this feeling as long as I live. I’m so happy I might cry. Honestly, I’ve never been more proud to call myself an American.” At press time, a visibly elated Williams was reportedly searching for his “Trump That Bitch” hat to wear while watching Hillary Clinton’s concession speech.

  19. @MKP
    Trump supporter (from before his first primary debate until the proud moment of filling in his name at the ballot box yesterday), and I’m here to eat crow.

    I thought, and stated on at least one occasion on this site, that HRC would defeat him. Not because I didn’t like him – although he’s something of a buffoon, I’ve always liked his candidacy and what he stands for, and always knew I’d vote for him – but because I thought the media influence was too big to overcome. Knew that moments like the “pussy grabbing” tape would pop up. Also thought that the GOP’s refusal to really back him with money and ground game infrastructure would be fatal.

    What can I say? I was flat wrong. A lot of posters here predicting a Trump win were not wild-eyed optimists or just taking in information from their Alt-Right bubble. You guys knew what was up – millions of rust-belt Americans weren’t willing to be led around by the nose by their DC / Madison Avenue “betters.”

    Not that anyone cares what I think, but because I said I’d admit it if I were wrong, here I am. Happy to have been mistaken. MAGA.

    Replies: @CrunchybutRealistCon, @TempoNick, @Mr. Anon

    Was a bit of a wild-eyed optimist myself, thinking Trump would get 51-52% of the overall vote. However, he will probably end up with 48%. Winning 30 & 1/2 states is impressive though. The big mystery is why he didn’t rack up higher vote totals in NY, TX, & CA. NY has elected Republican governors not long ago, and CA passed Prop 187 in ’94 with >55% of the vote, plus it elected the Terminator as Gov a decade later. How could Trump not get at least 43-45% there? The tsunami of negative ads and lack of help from many state GOP chairs (esp in CO) was no doubt a problemo. HRC probably outspent him by 3x on ads.

    • Replies: @Alec Leamas
    @CrunchybutRealistCon


    The big mystery is why he didn’t rack up higher vote totals in NY, TX, & CA. NY
     
    Live by the Electoral College, die by the Electoral College. He knew he wouldn't win those states, so Trump had no use in spending limited campaign resources and time to campaign there and set up an organization.

    Note that in California, the U.S. Senate race was between two Democrats in the General Election - there was little to nothing on the ballot for Republicans except in a few discrete holdout Congressional districts. Naturally, the GOP apparatus atrophies with little interest and an inability to win significant victories.

    Replies: @LondonBob

    , @Dr. X
    @CrunchybutRealistCon


    The big mystery is why he didn’t rack up higher vote totals in NY, TX, & CA. NY has elected Republican governors not long ago
     
    100,000 people a year bail out of New York, more than any other state in the country. As conservatives and Republicans leave, the state becomes increasingly blue. They are also replaced almost entirely by immigrants to New York City who vote Democrat. Rural, Upstate New York voted for Trump, but was swamped by the 6-1 Democratic advantage in New York City.

    New York last elected a Republican governor in 2002, which is fourteen years ago. And George Pataki was a liberal, milquetoast, pro-choice, pro-gun control Republican from Westchester County, 45 minutes north of New York City. He actually tried to run for president this year and failed miserably. He publicly denounced Trump after Trump won the GOP nomination. The New York GOP has largely collapsed since he left office in 2006.

  20. The Left has worked very hard since the 1960s to demoralize whites from voting and to break up white organizations that used to drive out the vote. White ethnic clubs were sued for discrimination and villanized, ethnic pride was attacked, white ethnic symbols villanized and removed (Confederate Flag). NAFTA was the last nail in the coffin (or so they thought) of unions, which were the last white ethnic organizations still standing (most local non-governmental unions had been white ethnic enclaves protecting local boy).

    And let’s not forget how much of Hollywood propaganda there was fed to white television watchers about how “you can’t change the system” and “all politics are corrupt, why bother” and “politics is boring, ho hom, ignore it.”

    Meanwhile, black and Asian and Latino and Gay voters were fed the opposite from Hollywood– about how political engagement was good and a way to save their communities. And the Left was always trying to start more and more black/asian/latino/gay organizations to get their votes out.

    Trump recognized, however, that such Traditional Americans were merely demoralized, not dead. And he turned them out using the power of the media that they consumed. And they loved him for it.

  21. @SFG
    Trump's big advantage was he was a northern white populist. The New York thing, ironically, kept him from being geographically limited to the South. Sort of the way (Bill) Clinton being from Arkansas helped--being a blue-state Republican or red-state Democrat gives you crossover appeal.

    Replies: @syonredux

    Trump’s big advantage was he was a northern white populist. The New York thing, ironically, kept him from being geographically limited to the South. Sort of the way (Bill) Clinton being from Arkansas helped–being a blue-state Republican or red-state Democrat gives you crossover appeal.

    Yeah, I’m quite intrigued by the fact that Trump is the first NY-affiliated president since FDR (and FDR, of course, belonged to a very different stratum of NY society, the old WASP elite).

    • Replies: @Almost Missouri
    @syonredux

    Er, not to split WASP hairs again, but FDR was a Knickerbocker--a descendant of the old Dutch elite of New Netherlands, rather than a WASP--descendant of the New England elites who partially dispossessed the Dutch after capturing New Netherlands and rechristening it New York in 1674 at the end of the Third Anglo-Dutch War.

    Admittedly, there is some overlap nowadays.

    Narcissism of small differences, you may say.

    Heh, "Anglo-Dutch War" in North America. How far we've come.

    Replies: @syonredux

  22. As a member of the dispossessed white working class in the Great Lakes region, I can testify that the hatred of Hillary Clinton outside of the big cities was quite palpable around here. My small town and the surrounding towns voted 65 to 70% Republican. But the disgust with the GOP Establishment and the Bushes was equally palpable.

    Trump signs were everywhere, and stickers on every truck. That Hillary took these formerly Democratic, unionized regions for granted betrays the tin ear she has for actually listening to the people. The fact that she never bothered to campaign in Wisconsin after Scott Walker successfully took down the Democratic union establishment is telling. It was an astroturf, media-driven, from-0n-high campaign all the way. Wisconsin, Ohio and Michigan flipping from blue to red states with Republican governors and legislatures should have been a warning to Hillary. Michigan, of all states, actually went right-to-work in 2012. But I think she actually believed her own “deplorable” comment, made to a group of Manhattan gays, and shrugged off the entire blue-collar Great Lakes region.

    I should also mention that Trump generated a LOT of immediate support in Upstate New York when he considered running for governor two years ago. Hillary, former senator from New York, ignored that warning sign, too.

    Sayonara, lady. Don’t let the door hit you in the ass on the way out.

    • Replies: @Connecticut Famer
    @Dr. X

    Displaying the personality of a number 2 pencil, the Rodham woman was flat-out absolutely the worst candidate I have ever seen! She made Dukaka of Massachusetts look like FDR. The thought of descending into "flyover country" for even a half a day was beneath her. And the good folk of Rural America sensed the condescension, if not the downright hostility. And it blew up in her face.

    Good riddance!!

    Replies: @anonguy

  23. Heck I’ll say it. How do we know voter fraud wasn’t rampant?
    Not an issue with our guy winning but I’ll bet the numbers in popular vote would be bigger with wider margins and maybe another state or two.

    Btw, did some of us move from deplorable to irredeemable?
    Chronicles has a good one, orange is the new black in politics.

  24. @CrunchybutRealistCon
    @MKP

    Was a bit of a wild-eyed optimist myself, thinking Trump would get 51-52% of the overall vote. However, he will probably end up with 48%. Winning 30 & 1/2 states is impressive though. The big mystery is why he didn't rack up higher vote totals in NY, TX, & CA. NY has elected Republican governors not long ago, and CA passed Prop 187 in '94 with >55% of the vote, plus it elected the Terminator as Gov a decade later. How could Trump not get at least 43-45% there? The tsunami of negative ads and lack of help from many state GOP chairs (esp in CO) was no doubt a problemo. HRC probably outspent him by 3x on ads.

    Replies: @Alec Leamas, @Dr. X

    The big mystery is why he didn’t rack up higher vote totals in NY, TX, & CA. NY

    Live by the Electoral College, die by the Electoral College. He knew he wouldn’t win those states, so Trump had no use in spending limited campaign resources and time to campaign there and set up an organization.

    Note that in California, the U.S. Senate race was between two Democrats in the General Election – there was little to nothing on the ballot for Republicans except in a few discrete holdout Congressional districts. Naturally, the GOP apparatus atrophies with little interest and an inability to win significant victories.

    • Replies: @LondonBob
    @Alec Leamas

    Trump rallies and ads maybe account for his better performance there, media demonisation was unchecked elsewhere.

  25. Anon • Disclaimer says:

    Trump had an advantage with the working class because he’s the sort of guy you could give a billion dollars to and stuff in a suit and he still comes across like a working class Joe himself. No matter how he behaves, he’s one of them. If a guy like this shows solid common sense and enough toughness and moxie to deal with American’s jungle politics, the working class will flock to him like pigeons to a spilled bag of popcorn.

  26. Here in Sioux County, Steve, Trump won 14000-2500 (approximately).

    In Sioux Center, a town in Sioux County, Trump won 1800-100.

    Someone please tell Raj Chetty.

    • Replies: @The Last Real Calvinist
    @Sioux County guy


    Here in Sioux County, Steve, Trump won 14000-2500 (approximately).

    In Sioux Center, a town in Sioux County, Trump won 1800-100.

    Someone please tell Raj Chetty.
     

    Hey, nice to see another Sioux County boy here. I grew up in Orange City, but haven't lived there for the past, hmmm, three decades.

    Sioux County and Raj Chetty have actually been discussed here at some length, if you haven't been visiting the site for long. This post is a good place to start.

  27. @CrunchybutRealistCon
    @MKP

    Was a bit of a wild-eyed optimist myself, thinking Trump would get 51-52% of the overall vote. However, he will probably end up with 48%. Winning 30 & 1/2 states is impressive though. The big mystery is why he didn't rack up higher vote totals in NY, TX, & CA. NY has elected Republican governors not long ago, and CA passed Prop 187 in '94 with >55% of the vote, plus it elected the Terminator as Gov a decade later. How could Trump not get at least 43-45% there? The tsunami of negative ads and lack of help from many state GOP chairs (esp in CO) was no doubt a problemo. HRC probably outspent him by 3x on ads.

    Replies: @Alec Leamas, @Dr. X

    The big mystery is why he didn’t rack up higher vote totals in NY, TX, & CA. NY has elected Republican governors not long ago

    100,000 people a year bail out of New York, more than any other state in the country. As conservatives and Republicans leave, the state becomes increasingly blue. They are also replaced almost entirely by immigrants to New York City who vote Democrat. Rural, Upstate New York voted for Trump, but was swamped by the 6-1 Democratic advantage in New York City.

    New York last elected a Republican governor in 2002, which is fourteen years ago. And George Pataki was a liberal, milquetoast, pro-choice, pro-gun control Republican from Westchester County, 45 minutes north of New York City. He actually tried to run for president this year and failed miserably. He publicly denounced Trump after Trump won the GOP nomination. The New York GOP has largely collapsed since he left office in 2006.

  28. @Bill P
    A bit OT, but concerning northern states, I crossed the border this morning and the Canadian Border Patrol had extra checkpoints with squads of armed agents leading up to the usual border crossing. Seems they're worried about some of the people who are fleeing due to election results. I've never seen this before, and they weren't messing around.

    Replies: @Almost Missouri

    LOL. I wouldn’t want all those liberal nation-wreckers entering my country either.

    Maybe we can offer them all free transport to Svalbard. No visa required.

  29. @Intelligent Dasein
    @Jenner Ickham Errican

    Gordon Lightfoot was the very first thing I thought of when I saw the map. His music always makes me think of Trump's forgotten Americans.

    Replies: @Connecticut Famer, @Olorin

    My man Gord, the Canadian Troubadour. You have good taste in music my friend.

  30. @Dr. X
    As a member of the dispossessed white working class in the Great Lakes region, I can testify that the hatred of Hillary Clinton outside of the big cities was quite palpable around here. My small town and the surrounding towns voted 65 to 70% Republican. But the disgust with the GOP Establishment and the Bushes was equally palpable.

    Trump signs were everywhere, and stickers on every truck. That Hillary took these formerly Democratic, unionized regions for granted betrays the tin ear she has for actually listening to the people. The fact that she never bothered to campaign in Wisconsin after Scott Walker successfully took down the Democratic union establishment is telling. It was an astroturf, media-driven, from-0n-high campaign all the way. Wisconsin, Ohio and Michigan flipping from blue to red states with Republican governors and legislatures should have been a warning to Hillary. Michigan, of all states, actually went right-to-work in 2012. But I think she actually believed her own "deplorable" comment, made to a group of Manhattan gays, and shrugged off the entire blue-collar Great Lakes region.

    I should also mention that Trump generated a LOT of immediate support in Upstate New York when he considered running for governor two years ago. Hillary, former senator from New York, ignored that warning sign, too.

    Sayonara, lady. Don't let the door hit you in the ass on the way out.

    Replies: @Connecticut Famer

    Displaying the personality of a number 2 pencil, the Rodham woman was flat-out absolutely the worst candidate I have ever seen! She made Dukaka of Massachusetts look like FDR. The thought of descending into “flyover country” for even a half a day was beneath her. And the good folk of Rural America sensed the condescension, if not the downright hostility. And it blew up in her face.

    Good riddance!!

    • Replies: @anonguy
    @Connecticut Famer


    Displaying the personality of a number 2 pencil, the Rodham woman was flat-out absolutely the worst candidate I have ever seen!
     
    During the first part of her concession speech she displayed a sincere charm that would have worked very well during the campaign. She managed to keep that Hillary stridency out of her voice, mostly, you could see her catching herself here and there. She wasn't doing so good holding it back during the second half.

    She was also doing that surreptitious little throat clearing thing we've all been trained to spot. At this point, it made her a bit of a sympathetic figure so everyone can feel Hillary has earned a well deserved rest.

    Or something. Anyhow, I thought it was cute and that it was the best speech of her campaign, admittedly an impossibly low bar. But she pulled it off and I thought she was very gracious about everything.

    Nice of her to put forth the effort to be a class act at the end.

    Replies: @Yojimbo/Zatoichi, @Hugh, @Clyde

  31. The average NumbersUSA score of a state’s congressional delegation predicted Trump’s electoral college performance better than RCP average polls in this election, proving the central importance of the immigration issue.

    States whose electorate successfully forced congressional delegations to be immigration-restrictionist over a long period of time voted for Trump.

    Here are the weighted average career scores (senators scores count 4.35 x more than representatives)

    HIGH SCORING STATES
    Idaho 90.1
    Kansas 89.4
    Arkansas 88.4
    Alabama 88.3
    Wyoming 83.1
    Iowa 81.1
    Louisiana 79.4
    Oklahoma 77.8
    Nebraska 77.1
    South Carolina 69.8
    Utah 69.7
    Georgia 68.2
    Tennessee 68.1
    Kentucky 67
    Mississippi 66.1
    North Carolina 65.3
    Texas 64.4
    Missouri 60.4
    West Virginia 60
    Montana 59
    Alaska 58.5
    South Dakota 58.4
    Indiana 51.5
    Ohio 50.6
    Pennsylvania 49.8
    Wisconsin 49.6
    Arizona 46.7

    MEDIUM SCORING STATES
    Nevada 45.3
    Florida 43.9
    Virginia 42
    Colorado 40.2
    Michigan 38.9
    North Dakota 34.2

    LOW SCORING STATES
    Illinois 32.4
    Minnesota 28.9
    New Hampshire 28.7
    Maine 28
    California 27.4
    New Jersey 25.2
    Oregon 23.5
    Washington 22.6
    New York 21.1
    Rhode Island 19.4
    Maryland 19
    Vermont 18.9
    Delaware 17.5
    New Mexico 16.6
    Connecticut 14.9
    Hawaii 13.7
    Massachusetts 13.4
    DC —

    Trump won all of the high scoring states, including Wisconsin which, according to polls, was supposed to be solidly for Hillary.

    Trump won half of the medium scoring states.

    Trump didn’t win any of the low scoring states, not even New Hampshire which polls predicted was the most accessible of the Hillary-leaning toss-ups.

    The Clinton campaign and its allies in the mainstream media were blind to their own weak points , such as Wisconsin, Pennsylvania, and Michigan, because they were in denial about the central importance of the immigration issue to the rise of Trump.

    They wanted to believe their own lies, and this made them vulnerable.

  32. @Alfa158
    The downside of relentless racial identity conditioning of Blacks cost Hillary the election. Trump pulled in a lot less votes than Obama did in his wins, but despite the massive GOTV ground game and campaigning by Obama, too many Blacks didn't bother to turn out and vote for her. Bigger urban turnout in states like Michigan, Florida, Missouri, Wisconsin and Pennsylvania might have tipped the results to her, but many Blacks just can't be bothered to particularly care about anyone outside their own tribe. We'll see what happens in 2020 when the White percentage of the population has shrunk further, and perhaps someone like Cory Booker is somewhere on the ticket.

    Replies: @oddsbodkins, @Olorin

    Yes, the racial-identity conditioning of blacks was pretty effective at conditioning whites.

    But the other half of the problem was that the Clinton wing of the Democratic party has so completely turned their backs on the working class. It takes a tremendous feat of cognitive dissonance to accept someone who gets paid 225k for secret speeches to GS as committed to helping working people.

    It will be interesting to see if northern whites continue to vote like southern whites. My suspicion is that Trump won’t or can’t do much to help them and that in eight years they will be as disappointed with him as blacks are with Obama now.

    • Replies: @Anon
    @oddsbodkins

    I wonder if the decline of Democratic interest in the working class has a lot to do with the decline of unions. If very few working class people belong to unions anymore, then unions can't collect--and donate--as much money to Democratic campaigns, and poof, there goes the influence that workers used to have.

    The main donors to Dems these days appear to be Tech billionaires, and they want their cheap foreign workers to program their computers and to mow their lawns.

    , @TempoNick
    @oddsbodkins

    But if Trump puts a moratorium on ALL immigration (I am the child of immigrants and not too crazy about either the browning or the Islamization of America), that would be a major accomplishment. Roger Stone is one of his advisors -- I'm sure this has been discussed!!!

  33. Feeling a mixture of intense pride and abject disbelief after news networks called the 2016 presidential election in favor of Donald Trump, local man Terry Williams, who is currently wearing a T-shirt adorned with the word “Jewmerica,”

    Jewmerica = not funny.

    But Jew York city, Jewnited States, center of the Jewniverse, now that’s funny. (Guy on Stormfront had that as his location, cracked me up every time).

    • Replies: @athEIst
    @Svigor

    Is there more after the comma? Because the "sentence" so far has many phrases and clauses and even a subject but as yet no predicate.

  34. @syonredux
    @SFG


    Trump’s big advantage was he was a northern white populist. The New York thing, ironically, kept him from being geographically limited to the South. Sort of the way (Bill) Clinton being from Arkansas helped–being a blue-state Republican or red-state Democrat gives you crossover appeal.
     
    Yeah, I'm quite intrigued by the fact that Trump is the first NY-affiliated president since FDR (and FDR, of course, belonged to a very different stratum of NY society, the old WASP elite).

    Replies: @Almost Missouri

    Er, not to split WASP hairs again, but FDR was a Knickerbocker–a descendant of the old Dutch elite of New Netherlands, rather than a WASP–descendant of the New England elites who partially dispossessed the Dutch after capturing New Netherlands and rechristening it New York in 1674 at the end of the Third Anglo-Dutch War.

    Admittedly, there is some overlap nowadays.

    Narcissism of small differences, you may say.

    Heh, “Anglo-Dutch War” in North America. How far we’ve come.

    • Replies: @syonredux
    @Almost Missouri


    Er, not to split WASP hairs again, but FDR was a Knickerbocker–a descendant of the old Dutch elite of New Netherlands, rather than a WASP–descendant of the New England elites who partially dispossessed the Dutch after capturing New Netherlands and rechristening it New York in 1674 at the end of the Third Anglo-Dutch War.
     
    Not quite. FDR's mother, Sara Delano, was of Old New England stock. As for FDR's paternal line, his paternal grandmother was Mary Aspinwall (New England stock again). Hence, FDR was 75% WASP and 25% Knickerbocker. And to that we can also add strongly WASP environmental factors: Groton, Harvard, etc.
  35. @Polynikes
    @GW

    He got different whites. He didn't get turnout from the establishment types. In Wisconsin reliable establishment counties (WOW counties) were down 10+%. Trump made up for it with rural working class types.

    He had similar problems in Ohio , FL, Texas, and AZ thanks to the Kasich, Rubio, Bush, and McCain machines, respectively.

    In places where he got both establishment and trump independents, like Indiana, he was up several percent and had some extra turnout from Romney's numbers.

    #nevertrump had an effect. Luckily, it wasn't a deciding effect.

    Replies: @Travis

    #nevertrump certainly was a big reason Republican Governor Gary Johnson running on the Libertarian ticket tripled his votes from 4 years ago. the majority of his extra 3.5 million votes came from republican leaning white voters. Probably 97% of those who voted for Gary Johnson were white. He must be a real racist to have such supporters.

    • Replies: @Yojimbo/Zatoichi
    @Travis

    Probably more in the neighborhood of 99%. Also, Jill Stein's supporters are about 99% white as well. Why exactly would black voters want to vote for either candidate. They can see that neither candidate can do anything for them.

  36. @Anonymous
    https://twitter.com/realDonaldTrump/status/266038556504494082

    Replies: @grapesoda

    Mainlining your impotent leftist tears is the perfect start to my day

  37. @Connecticut Famer
    @Dr. X

    Displaying the personality of a number 2 pencil, the Rodham woman was flat-out absolutely the worst candidate I have ever seen! She made Dukaka of Massachusetts look like FDR. The thought of descending into "flyover country" for even a half a day was beneath her. And the good folk of Rural America sensed the condescension, if not the downright hostility. And it blew up in her face.

    Good riddance!!

    Replies: @anonguy

    Displaying the personality of a number 2 pencil, the Rodham woman was flat-out absolutely the worst candidate I have ever seen!

    During the first part of her concession speech she displayed a sincere charm that would have worked very well during the campaign. She managed to keep that Hillary stridency out of her voice, mostly, you could see her catching herself here and there. She wasn’t doing so good holding it back during the second half.

    She was also doing that surreptitious little throat clearing thing we’ve all been trained to spot. At this point, it made her a bit of a sympathetic figure so everyone can feel Hillary has earned a well deserved rest.

    Or something. Anyhow, I thought it was cute and that it was the best speech of her campaign, admittedly an impossibly low bar. But she pulled it off and I thought she was very gracious about everything.

    Nice of her to put forth the effort to be a class act at the end.

    • Replies: @Yojimbo/Zatoichi
    @anonguy

    Yeah, okay, that's all good.

    Question: When the US has an incoming administration starting in January, how long will it take before Clinton is charged/indicted on one of her scandals? In other words, Comey could reopen the various investigations. A new administration might be more receptive to name a special prosecutor.

    , @Hugh
    @anonguy

    I partially agree with you.

    But in winding up she told little girls that they could be successful..... I suppose the little boys can just go and fuck themselves.

    We have truly been blessed not to have this vile hag as President.

    , @Clyde
    @anonguy


    During the first part of her concession speech she displayed a sincere charm that would have worked very well during the campaign. She managed to keep that Hillary stridency out of her voice, mostly, you could see her catching herself here and there.
     
    Gracious, tired, worn down by unknown illnesses. Hillary was relieved that she lost. That Donald Trump was welcome to have this headache (Presidency). This is what I saw. Hillary now has her place in the history books and she is fine with this.
  38. Anonymous • Disclaimer says:

    Anyone else notice how DC was so lopsidedly for Hillary. Far and away, the highest Hillary supporter at 93% . The next highest are in the 60s. It has a high African American presence, yes, but that doesn’t explain such a dramatic number. It’s the beltway elites. The media tried to frame away from Hillary as the establishment candidate, but the numbers don’t lie.

    • Replies: @Maj. Kong
    @Anonymous

    DC has the most liberal whites and (((whites))) in the country, no Republican advocating big cuts to government spending is ever going to do well in a town completely dependent on federal largesse.

    , @(((Owen)))
    @Anonymous

    DC is just under 50% black. It was 70+%, but The Plan is working. Blacks voted 8% for Trump nationally. And DC voted 4.1% for Trump, 93% for Her.

    50% black * 8% black for Trump = 4% DC black Trump vote

    4.1% total - 4% black = 0.1% DC non-black vote for Trump

    So the whites in DC voted approximately 0.2% for Trump. I hope they enjoy the next four years.

  39. “Romney didn’t seem to find his business career all that fulfilling and got out of it quite early…to go into public service full time.”

    And how’d that work out for him? A single term as governor of MA, and….?

    Still not convinced that it ever really occurred to Romney to actually go after “those kinds” of voters–white, undereducated, blue collar voters. He has no real idea how those types of folks actually live their lives. Trump on the other hand, is well familiar with that side of life.

    Not for nothing is Trump nicknamed “The People’s billionaire”.

    • Replies: @athEIst
    @Yojimbo/Zatoichi

    And he was very lucky to win that one term after a divisive demo primary which left two demos on the ballot. He did not run for reelection. He would not have been reelected.
    He ran for the Senate in (the landslide year) 1994, did so well at first that they had to wake up Teddy to stomp him. That's when the Demos learned about BAIN CAPITAL.

  40. @anonguy
    @Connecticut Famer


    Displaying the personality of a number 2 pencil, the Rodham woman was flat-out absolutely the worst candidate I have ever seen!
     
    During the first part of her concession speech she displayed a sincere charm that would have worked very well during the campaign. She managed to keep that Hillary stridency out of her voice, mostly, you could see her catching herself here and there. She wasn't doing so good holding it back during the second half.

    She was also doing that surreptitious little throat clearing thing we've all been trained to spot. At this point, it made her a bit of a sympathetic figure so everyone can feel Hillary has earned a well deserved rest.

    Or something. Anyhow, I thought it was cute and that it was the best speech of her campaign, admittedly an impossibly low bar. But she pulled it off and I thought she was very gracious about everything.

    Nice of her to put forth the effort to be a class act at the end.

    Replies: @Yojimbo/Zatoichi, @Hugh, @Clyde

    Yeah, okay, that’s all good.

    Question: When the US has an incoming administration starting in January, how long will it take before Clinton is charged/indicted on one of her scandals? In other words, Comey could reopen the various investigations. A new administration might be more receptive to name a special prosecutor.

  41. @Travis
    @Polynikes

    #nevertrump certainly was a big reason Republican Governor Gary Johnson running on the Libertarian ticket tripled his votes from 4 years ago. the majority of his extra 3.5 million votes came from republican leaning white voters. Probably 97% of those who voted for Gary Johnson were white. He must be a real racist to have such supporters.

    Replies: @Yojimbo/Zatoichi

    Probably more in the neighborhood of 99%. Also, Jill Stein’s supporters are about 99% white as well. Why exactly would black voters want to vote for either candidate. They can see that neither candidate can do anything for them.

  42. @Steve Sailer
    @Anonymous

    LA County passed this condom requirement a few years ago, so I've heard the porn industry is relocating to Miami.

    Replies: @Yojimbo/Zatoichi

    Technically, the only two states that permit adult videos to be produced are CA and NH. Some production exists in FL but technically it is flouting the law.

    • Replies: @Maj. Kong
    @Yojimbo/Zatoichi

    Has the question of whether it is legal outside of the 12 nautical mile limit been tested?

    Replies: @Karl

    , @snorlax
    @Yojimbo/Zatoichi

    It was my impression that porn is a legal gray area, and the reason porn films always have a "plot" and musical soundtrack is to get around obscenity laws.

    Replies: @Yojimbo/Zatoichi

  43. @anonguy
    @Connecticut Famer


    Displaying the personality of a number 2 pencil, the Rodham woman was flat-out absolutely the worst candidate I have ever seen!
     
    During the first part of her concession speech she displayed a sincere charm that would have worked very well during the campaign. She managed to keep that Hillary stridency out of her voice, mostly, you could see her catching herself here and there. She wasn't doing so good holding it back during the second half.

    She was also doing that surreptitious little throat clearing thing we've all been trained to spot. At this point, it made her a bit of a sympathetic figure so everyone can feel Hillary has earned a well deserved rest.

    Or something. Anyhow, I thought it was cute and that it was the best speech of her campaign, admittedly an impossibly low bar. But she pulled it off and I thought she was very gracious about everything.

    Nice of her to put forth the effort to be a class act at the end.

    Replies: @Yojimbo/Zatoichi, @Hugh, @Clyde

    I partially agree with you.

    But in winding up she told little girls that they could be successful….. I suppose the little boys can just go and fuck themselves.

    We have truly been blessed not to have this vile hag as President.

  44. @Sioux County guy
    Here in Sioux County, Steve, Trump won 14000-2500 (approximately).

    In Sioux Center, a town in Sioux County, Trump won 1800-100.

    Someone please tell Raj Chetty.

    Replies: @The Last Real Calvinist

    Here in Sioux County, Steve, Trump won 14000-2500 (approximately).

    In Sioux Center, a town in Sioux County, Trump won 1800-100.

    Someone please tell Raj Chetty.

    Hey, nice to see another Sioux County boy here. I grew up in Orange City, but haven’t lived there for the past, hmmm, three decades.

    Sioux County and Raj Chetty have actually been discussed here at some length, if you haven’t been visiting the site for long. This post is a good place to start.

  45. @charlie
    elephant in the room: Howard Stern.

    Immensely popular among older white men. 45-65. I don't think much relevance to men under 30 (once he went to xm he dropped off radar).

    I'm not shocked that Romney (Trees are the right size) who didn't have any cultural relevance to Great Lakes white men did poorly.

    These guys (50 to 70) aren't racist, but there dads were and they were raised in the 1960 and 70s and know that black people can dig it to. So they could be cool with voting for Obama.

    HRC doubling down on any contact with women being rape really could set up the Howard Stern set. Particularly rich since her husband is an expert at that.

    Replies: @Maj. Kong

    Mitt Romney’s father was the Governor of Michigan back in the 1960s. The younger Romney’s own problem is that he’s a rootless cosmopolitan, while Trump is the quintessential NYer (before post-65 mass immigration).

  46. @Anonymous
    Anyone else notice how DC was so lopsidedly for Hillary. Far and away, the highest Hillary supporter at 93% . The next highest are in the 60s. It has a high African American presence, yes, but that doesn't explain such a dramatic number. It's the beltway elites. The media tried to frame away from Hillary as the establishment candidate, but the numbers don't lie.

    Replies: @Maj. Kong, @(((Owen)))

    DC has the most liberal whites and (((whites))) in the country, no Republican advocating big cuts to government spending is ever going to do well in a town completely dependent on federal largesse.

  47. @yaqub the mad scientist
    One thread that I've noticed through this election is how Dems have finally agreed to dump the last vestiges of pre-Clinton/Bush economic ideas. You had lots of pundits conflating trade protectionism and wanting jobs sourced here with xenophilia. Example from this of many dissections of rural voters published this season: "America will survive Trump's campaign, and the temptations of protectionism and xenophobia he offers." People just roll those two things together casually now, without a trace of irony. I wonder how many Dems realized that they're now against what used to be their standard policy.


    Tuesday was a repudiation of Richard Florida economic theory. A lot of voters decided this country can support only so many Boulder, CO and Asheville, NC -type places. Whole chunks of this country aren't going to become tech giants, distribution centers for Amazon, or make a creative class magically appear. And they won't benefit from finance. I wonder if anyone is going to give them credit for being more realistic than the elites who despise them.

    Replies: @Maj. Kong

    Its not so cut and dry, yet.

    NC voted out a Republican Governor, and New Hampshire likely voted out a Republican Senator (one who disavowed Trump).

    We probably should credit Trump for dragging Toomey, Johnson, Young and Blunt over the finish line.

    At the same time, California voted 54% against eliminating capital punishment.

    http://www.slate.com/blogs/the_slatest/2016/11/09/california_keeps_the_death_penalty_and_increases_executions.html

    • Replies: @Clyde
    @Maj. Kong


    We probably should credit Trump for dragging Toomey, Johnson, Young and Blunt over the finish line.
     
    Krauthammer said Trump showed he had coattails. This translates into respect, appreciation, cooperation from a Toomey type Republican who unfortunately is in the open borders/free trade/Americans for Prosperity camp. But who I would vote for over any Democrat.
    , @(((Owen)))
    @Maj. Kong


    We probably should credit Trump for dragging Toomey, Johnson, Young and Blunt over the finish line.
     
    Credit? Those guys should be gone; they hate America and Americans and will be doing everything they can to undermine us for the next six years.

    What we need is primary campaigns against Ben Sasse and Lindsay Graham in 2020.
  48. @Yojimbo/Zatoichi
    @Steve Sailer

    Technically, the only two states that permit adult videos to be produced are CA and NH. Some production exists in FL but technically it is flouting the law.

    Replies: @Maj. Kong, @snorlax

    Has the question of whether it is legal outside of the 12 nautical mile limit been tested?

    • Replies: @Karl
    @Maj. Kong

    > Has the question of whether it is legal outside of the 12 nautical mile limit been tested?


    the Exclusive Economic Zone stretches out to 200 miles.

    Not only that, all crimes therein, belong to the Coast Guard unless someone else can show a statutory-granted jurisdiction. Of which there's not many.

    Nautical miles, I believe. The numerator portion of "knots".

  49. @Anonymous
    Steve, how'd you vote on Prop. 60? It was defeated yesterday:

    "No condoms needed! Voters back bare porn stars"

    http://mynewsla.com/government/2016/11/08/no-condoms-needed-voters-back-bare-porn-stars/

    A measure that would require adult-film performers to wear condoms during sex scenes, and make producers and film distributors liable for violations, was being defeated by voters Tuesday night.

    Proposition 60 was strongly opposed by the adult-film industry, including producers and many performers, and was primarily backed by the Hollywood-based AIDS Healthcare Foundation, which spearheaded a similar law that was approved by Los Angeles County voters in 2012.

    In addition to requiring condoms, the measure would also require adult- film producers to pay for performer vaccinations, testing and medical exams for sexually transmitted diseases. It would also mandate that a notification be posted at film sites, and film producers would be required to obtain health licenses. The proposition imposes liability for violations on producers, distributors and performers who have a financial interest in the film, as well as on talent agents who refer performers to non-compliant producers.

    Early vote tallies showed the measure being defeated by 53 percent of voters.
     

    Replies: @Steve Sailer, @athEIst

    And Steve, as is his right, doesn’t answer the question.

  50. Anon • Disclaimer says:
    @oddsbodkins
    @Alfa158

    Yes, the racial-identity conditioning of blacks was pretty effective at conditioning whites.

    But the other half of the problem was that the Clinton wing of the Democratic party has so completely turned their backs on the working class. It takes a tremendous feat of cognitive dissonance to accept someone who gets paid 225k for secret speeches to GS as committed to helping working people.

    It will be interesting to see if northern whites continue to vote like southern whites. My suspicion is that Trump won't or can't do much to help them and that in eight years they will be as disappointed with him as blacks are with Obama now.

    Replies: @Anon, @TempoNick

    I wonder if the decline of Democratic interest in the working class has a lot to do with the decline of unions. If very few working class people belong to unions anymore, then unions can’t collect–and donate–as much money to Democratic campaigns, and poof, there goes the influence that workers used to have.

    The main donors to Dems these days appear to be Tech billionaires, and they want their cheap foreign workers to program their computers and to mow their lawns.

  51. @Svigor

    Feeling a mixture of intense pride and abject disbelief after news networks called the 2016 presidential election in favor of Donald Trump, local man Terry Williams, who is currently wearing a T-shirt adorned with the word “Jewmerica,”
     
    Jewmerica = not funny.

    But Jew York city, Jewnited States, center of the Jewniverse, now that's funny. (Guy on Stormfront had that as his location, cracked me up every time).

    Replies: @athEIst

    Is there more after the comma? Because the “sentence” so far has many phrases and clauses and even a subject but as yet no predicate.

  52. @Yojimbo/Zatoichi
    @Steve Sailer

    Technically, the only two states that permit adult videos to be produced are CA and NH. Some production exists in FL but technically it is flouting the law.

    Replies: @Maj. Kong, @snorlax

    It was my impression that porn is a legal gray area, and the reason porn films always have a “plot” and musical soundtrack is to get around obscenity laws.

    • Replies: @Yojimbo/Zatoichi
    @snorlax

    The main staple of porn these days (e.g. over the last 15 or so yrs) is a sub-genre called "Gonzo", where there is no music soundtrack or plot, period.

    It may have been the case back in the '70's, when the modern adult industry was starting out and based largely in SF. The obscenity laws were struck down by the Supreme Court ca.1988, also around the time the industry was firmly intrenched in LA.

    Irony: Hustler publisher Larry Flynt's Beverly Hills office tower complex is lined with solid gold, along the lines of Trump tower.

  53. @Yojimbo/Zatoichi
    "Romney didn’t seem to find his business career all that fulfilling and got out of it quite early...to go into public service full time."

    And how'd that work out for him? A single term as governor of MA, and....?

    Still not convinced that it ever really occurred to Romney to actually go after "those kinds" of voters--white, undereducated, blue collar voters. He has no real idea how those types of folks actually live their lives. Trump on the other hand, is well familiar with that side of life.

    Not for nothing is Trump nicknamed "The People's billionaire".

    Replies: @athEIst

    And he was very lucky to win that one term after a divisive demo primary which left two demos on the ballot. He did not run for reelection. He would not have been reelected.
    He ran for the Senate in (the landslide year) 1994, did so well at first that they had to wake up Teddy to stomp him. That’s when the Demos learned about BAIN CAPITAL.

  54. @Alfa158
    The downside of relentless racial identity conditioning of Blacks cost Hillary the election. Trump pulled in a lot less votes than Obama did in his wins, but despite the massive GOTV ground game and campaigning by Obama, too many Blacks didn't bother to turn out and vote for her. Bigger urban turnout in states like Michigan, Florida, Missouri, Wisconsin and Pennsylvania might have tipped the results to her, but many Blacks just can't be bothered to particularly care about anyone outside their own tribe. We'll see what happens in 2020 when the White percentage of the population has shrunk further, and perhaps someone like Cory Booker is somewhere on the ticket.

    Replies: @oddsbodkins, @Olorin

    Kamala Harris.

    She can grab the dot-Indians on both coasts’ megalopolises as well.

    • Replies: @rec1man
    @Olorin

    She is half-black and non-Hindu, and not accepted by most Hindu Indians

  55. @Maj. Kong
    @Yojimbo/Zatoichi

    Has the question of whether it is legal outside of the 12 nautical mile limit been tested?

    Replies: @Karl

    > Has the question of whether it is legal outside of the 12 nautical mile limit been tested?

    the Exclusive Economic Zone stretches out to 200 miles.

    Not only that, all crimes therein, belong to the Coast Guard unless someone else can show a statutory-granted jurisdiction. Of which there’s not many.

    Nautical miles, I believe. The numerator portion of “knots”.

  56. @GW
    It wasn't that Trump got more whites than Romney (but Hillary did far worse than Obama), but where he got those whites. Expect the Rust Belt to turn redder as the Sun Belt turns bluer as it browns out.

    Replies: @Polynikes, @Anonymous

    “Expect the Rust Belt to turn redder as the Sun Belt turns bluer as it browns out.”

    Why is the South browning out? Can this be stopped?

    • Replies: @Mr. Anon
    @Anonymous

    "Why is the South browning out? Can this be stopped?"

    During the election coverage, I think that Karl Rove mentioned that there are now a million hispanics in North Carolina. There are lots of them in Georgia and other southeastern states as well. Georgia also now has lots of Indians, and perhaps even more blacks as a lot of blacks have been moving there. This is why Georgia and N.C. are now considered swing-states. Mexicans and central americans flooded into the Southeast over the last 15 years, even into Alabama and Tennessee.

  57. @Olorin
    @Alfa158

    Kamala Harris.

    She can grab the dot-Indians on both coasts' megalopolises as well.

    Replies: @rec1man

    She is half-black and non-Hindu, and not accepted by most Hindu Indians

  58. @Intelligent Dasein
    @Jenner Ickham Errican

    Gordon Lightfoot was the very first thing I thought of when I saw the map. His music always makes me think of Trump's forgotten Americans.

    Replies: @Connecticut Famer, @Olorin

    WotEF always hit home personally, and always was a favorite of mine. GL too. But this is my favorite GL, 1967, studio, zero fancy production:

    The incomparable Red Shea extruding gossamer-heavy-metal.

  59. @anonguy
    @Connecticut Famer


    Displaying the personality of a number 2 pencil, the Rodham woman was flat-out absolutely the worst candidate I have ever seen!
     
    During the first part of her concession speech she displayed a sincere charm that would have worked very well during the campaign. She managed to keep that Hillary stridency out of her voice, mostly, you could see her catching herself here and there. She wasn't doing so good holding it back during the second half.

    She was also doing that surreptitious little throat clearing thing we've all been trained to spot. At this point, it made her a bit of a sympathetic figure so everyone can feel Hillary has earned a well deserved rest.

    Or something. Anyhow, I thought it was cute and that it was the best speech of her campaign, admittedly an impossibly low bar. But she pulled it off and I thought she was very gracious about everything.

    Nice of her to put forth the effort to be a class act at the end.

    Replies: @Yojimbo/Zatoichi, @Hugh, @Clyde

    During the first part of her concession speech she displayed a sincere charm that would have worked very well during the campaign. She managed to keep that Hillary stridency out of her voice, mostly, you could see her catching herself here and there.

    Gracious, tired, worn down by unknown illnesses. Hillary was relieved that she lost. That Donald Trump was welcome to have this headache (Presidency). This is what I saw. Hillary now has her place in the history books and she is fine with this.

  60. @Maj. Kong
    @yaqub the mad scientist

    Its not so cut and dry, yet.

    NC voted out a Republican Governor, and New Hampshire likely voted out a Republican Senator (one who disavowed Trump).

    We probably should credit Trump for dragging Toomey, Johnson, Young and Blunt over the finish line.

    At the same time, California voted 54% against eliminating capital punishment.

    http://www.slate.com/blogs/the_slatest/2016/11/09/california_keeps_the_death_penalty_and_increases_executions.html

    Replies: @Clyde, @(((Owen)))

    We probably should credit Trump for dragging Toomey, Johnson, Young and Blunt over the finish line.

    Krauthammer said Trump showed he had coattails. This translates into respect, appreciation, cooperation from a Toomey type Republican who unfortunately is in the open borders/free trade/Americans for Prosperity camp. But who I would vote for over any Democrat.

  61. @Almost Missouri
    @syonredux

    Er, not to split WASP hairs again, but FDR was a Knickerbocker--a descendant of the old Dutch elite of New Netherlands, rather than a WASP--descendant of the New England elites who partially dispossessed the Dutch after capturing New Netherlands and rechristening it New York in 1674 at the end of the Third Anglo-Dutch War.

    Admittedly, there is some overlap nowadays.

    Narcissism of small differences, you may say.

    Heh, "Anglo-Dutch War" in North America. How far we've come.

    Replies: @syonredux

    Er, not to split WASP hairs again, but FDR was a Knickerbocker–a descendant of the old Dutch elite of New Netherlands, rather than a WASP–descendant of the New England elites who partially dispossessed the Dutch after capturing New Netherlands and rechristening it New York in 1674 at the end of the Third Anglo-Dutch War.

    Not quite. FDR’s mother, Sara Delano, was of Old New England stock. As for FDR’s paternal line, his paternal grandmother was Mary Aspinwall (New England stock again). Hence, FDR was 75% WASP and 25% Knickerbocker. And to that we can also add strongly WASP environmental factors: Groton, Harvard, etc.

  62. I think this analysis if far too sophisticated and silly.

    Romney lost because he did not stand for anything that the historic American nation supported. He was weak on immigration in the general election, and he did not call out the racist black apologists for being the scum that they are. He offered no ideas to change the destructive course the nation was following. Trump stood for something that many of us believed in, and he told the lying media and the establishment to go to hell. That is why he won, despite all the best efforts of the traitorous establishment to try and defeat him.

    Take home message of this election: White America better wake up and realize that they have collective racial and cultural interests or they will lose THEIR country. And the Bushes and Romney’s of the world will do nothing to prevent our dispossession.

  63. @Alec Leamas
    @CrunchybutRealistCon


    The big mystery is why he didn’t rack up higher vote totals in NY, TX, & CA. NY
     
    Live by the Electoral College, die by the Electoral College. He knew he wouldn't win those states, so Trump had no use in spending limited campaign resources and time to campaign there and set up an organization.

    Note that in California, the U.S. Senate race was between two Democrats in the General Election - there was little to nothing on the ballot for Republicans except in a few discrete holdout Congressional districts. Naturally, the GOP apparatus atrophies with little interest and an inability to win significant victories.

    Replies: @LondonBob

    Trump rallies and ads maybe account for his better performance there, media demonisation was unchecked elsewhere.

  64. @MKP
    Trump supporter (from before his first primary debate until the proud moment of filling in his name at the ballot box yesterday), and I’m here to eat crow.

    I thought, and stated on at least one occasion on this site, that HRC would defeat him. Not because I didn’t like him – although he’s something of a buffoon, I’ve always liked his candidacy and what he stands for, and always knew I’d vote for him – but because I thought the media influence was too big to overcome. Knew that moments like the “pussy grabbing” tape would pop up. Also thought that the GOP’s refusal to really back him with money and ground game infrastructure would be fatal.

    What can I say? I was flat wrong. A lot of posters here predicting a Trump win were not wild-eyed optimists or just taking in information from their Alt-Right bubble. You guys knew what was up – millions of rust-belt Americans weren’t willing to be led around by the nose by their DC / Madison Avenue “betters.”

    Not that anyone cares what I think, but because I said I’d admit it if I were wrong, here I am. Happy to have been mistaken. MAGA.

    Replies: @CrunchybutRealistCon, @TempoNick, @Mr. Anon

    The alt-right media bubble kept many of us from going wobbly. If not for them picking apart polls and covering things the MSM refused to cover, it would be easy to get brainwashed into believing Trump was a lost cause. But when you are seeing poll results using D+15 samples, no matter how they are adjusted, you know someone is trying to commit a big, fat fraud!

  65. @oddsbodkins
    @Alfa158

    Yes, the racial-identity conditioning of blacks was pretty effective at conditioning whites.

    But the other half of the problem was that the Clinton wing of the Democratic party has so completely turned their backs on the working class. It takes a tremendous feat of cognitive dissonance to accept someone who gets paid 225k for secret speeches to GS as committed to helping working people.

    It will be interesting to see if northern whites continue to vote like southern whites. My suspicion is that Trump won't or can't do much to help them and that in eight years they will be as disappointed with him as blacks are with Obama now.

    Replies: @Anon, @TempoNick

    But if Trump puts a moratorium on ALL immigration (I am the child of immigrants and not too crazy about either the browning or the Islamization of America), that would be a major accomplishment. Roger Stone is one of his advisors — I’m sure this has been discussed!!!

  66. @MKP
    Trump supporter (from before his first primary debate until the proud moment of filling in his name at the ballot box yesterday), and I’m here to eat crow.

    I thought, and stated on at least one occasion on this site, that HRC would defeat him. Not because I didn’t like him – although he’s something of a buffoon, I’ve always liked his candidacy and what he stands for, and always knew I’d vote for him – but because I thought the media influence was too big to overcome. Knew that moments like the “pussy grabbing” tape would pop up. Also thought that the GOP’s refusal to really back him with money and ground game infrastructure would be fatal.

    What can I say? I was flat wrong. A lot of posters here predicting a Trump win were not wild-eyed optimists or just taking in information from their Alt-Right bubble. You guys knew what was up – millions of rust-belt Americans weren’t willing to be led around by the nose by their DC / Madison Avenue “betters.”

    Not that anyone cares what I think, but because I said I’d admit it if I were wrong, here I am. Happy to have been mistaken. MAGA.

    Replies: @CrunchybutRealistCon, @TempoNick, @Mr. Anon

    “A lot of posters here predicting a Trump win were not wild-eyed optimists or just taking in information from their Alt-Right bubble.”

    The Alt-Right bubble turned out to be a lot more tuned-in to the election than well known pollsters like Nate Silver or Larry Sabato. Jazzhand McFeels and Halberstam of TRS predicted a lot of it dead on.

  67. @Anonymous
    @GW

    "Expect the Rust Belt to turn redder as the Sun Belt turns bluer as it browns out."

    Why is the South browning out? Can this be stopped?

    Replies: @Mr. Anon

    “Why is the South browning out? Can this be stopped?”

    During the election coverage, I think that Karl Rove mentioned that there are now a million hispanics in North Carolina. There are lots of them in Georgia and other southeastern states as well. Georgia also now has lots of Indians, and perhaps even more blacks as a lot of blacks have been moving there. This is why Georgia and N.C. are now considered swing-states. Mexicans and central americans flooded into the Southeast over the last 15 years, even into Alabama and Tennessee.

  68. @snorlax
    @Yojimbo/Zatoichi

    It was my impression that porn is a legal gray area, and the reason porn films always have a "plot" and musical soundtrack is to get around obscenity laws.

    Replies: @Yojimbo/Zatoichi

    The main staple of porn these days (e.g. over the last 15 or so yrs) is a sub-genre called “Gonzo”, where there is no music soundtrack or plot, period.

    It may have been the case back in the ’70’s, when the modern adult industry was starting out and based largely in SF. The obscenity laws were struck down by the Supreme Court ca.1988, also around the time the industry was firmly intrenched in LA.

    Irony: Hustler publisher Larry Flynt’s Beverly Hills office tower complex is lined with solid gold, along the lines of Trump tower.

  69. @Anonymous
    Anyone else notice how DC was so lopsidedly for Hillary. Far and away, the highest Hillary supporter at 93% . The next highest are in the 60s. It has a high African American presence, yes, but that doesn't explain such a dramatic number. It's the beltway elites. The media tried to frame away from Hillary as the establishment candidate, but the numbers don't lie.

    Replies: @Maj. Kong, @(((Owen)))

    DC is just under 50% black. It was 70+%, but The Plan is working. Blacks voted 8% for Trump nationally. And DC voted 4.1% for Trump, 93% for Her.

    50% black * 8% black for Trump = 4% DC black Trump vote

    4.1% total – 4% black = 0.1% DC non-black vote for Trump

    So the whites in DC voted approximately 0.2% for Trump. I hope they enjoy the next four years.

  70. @Maj. Kong
    @yaqub the mad scientist

    Its not so cut and dry, yet.

    NC voted out a Republican Governor, and New Hampshire likely voted out a Republican Senator (one who disavowed Trump).

    We probably should credit Trump for dragging Toomey, Johnson, Young and Blunt over the finish line.

    At the same time, California voted 54% against eliminating capital punishment.

    http://www.slate.com/blogs/the_slatest/2016/11/09/california_keeps_the_death_penalty_and_increases_executions.html

    Replies: @Clyde, @(((Owen)))

    We probably should credit Trump for dragging Toomey, Johnson, Young and Blunt over the finish line.

    Credit? Those guys should be gone; they hate America and Americans and will be doing everything they can to undermine us for the next six years.

    What we need is primary campaigns against Ben Sasse and Lindsay Graham in 2020.

  71. Just got an email from NR saying that Kevin (cuck) Williamson has a new article called, if you an believe it, Managing President Trump. I filed it under Too Stupid; didn’t read. I hope DJT has a long memory.

  72. And we also need a primary campaign to get rid of ‘scientific’ methods which proved to be the undoing of the Clintonista.

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