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Sine late 2004, I’ve been pointing out how the family values party does best in Presidential elections in family values states, which tend to be those with high rates of marriage, likely due to Affordable Family Formation. At the Electoral College levels, these correlations are extraordinarily high for the social sciences.
In 2016, however, the GOP nominated a man who embodies family values less than, say, Mitt Romney.
But if you add Mormon Evan McMullin’s vote to Donald Trump’s, well, the old pattern is still around. Above is a nice graph from Thomas B. Edsall’s May 4, 2017 NYT column “President Trump Is the Enemy of Their Enemies.”
This graph updates to 2016 the analysis in an important new paper by the second discoverers (around 2006) of my big insight:
The “Second Demographic Transition” in the US : Exception or Textbook Example?
Ron J. Lesthaeghe and Lisa Neidert
Dept. of Sociology and Population Studies Center University of Michigan, Ann Arbor.
Dr. Lesthaeghe has graciously conceded my priority on noticing many of these correlations between white marriage/fertility and voting.
McMullin has a lesbian mother, no wife, and may be gay.
Anyone who voted for Egg McMuffin unironically is unworthy of even being spat at.
I pose a question to other readers: in your opinion which is more cucked, earnestly voting for Egg McMuffin, or “accepting” the birth of a surprisingly mixed-race looking baby in a same race relationship?
Seven of the kids bore a clear resemblance to either or both of the parents, but one was obviously half-black.
The father admitted that the half-black one was born during a "rough patch" in the marriage.Replies: @Steve Sailer, @Anonymous
A late friend of mine used to call this the “Breeder Advantage.”
did your late “friend” die of AIDs? Thats who calls normal people breeders, what should we call them?
The name was rather tongue-in-cheek, but regrettably jokes are far less funny when you need to explain them.Replies: @Colleen Pater
Post-WWII California, especially Southern California, used to be very good for affordable family formation. Maybe not surprisingly, it was considered the heartland of the Republican party and produced quite a few leading Republicans, such as Nixon and Reagan.
During the 90s, California real estate prices began their extreme climb and the SoCal defense/aerospace sector laid off lots of workers. During the 90s, the state also rapidly transitioned from solidly Republican to solidly Democratic. So it seems plausible that the reduction of affordable family formation may have been the critical factor that flipped California from Red to Blue.
A lot of the fiercest clashes between pro-Trump and anti-Trump factions have happened in California, especially in SoCal (Anaheim, Huntington Beach, San Diego). There was a major confrontation in Berkeley too. One journalist claimed that California had more Patriot anti-govt groups than any other state, which puzzled him. I wonder if lots of California whites, on some level, feel angry that they’ve lost their promise land and feel a need to fight for their future.
Said journalist probably parroted what he/she/xe/it/they read on the SPLC website, and as we all know, the SPLC tends to count extinct groups that were never really much of anything when they were extant, and post office boxes, and lots of phantoms, as "groups."
So you’re telling me that people with no investment whatsoever in the future of a country don’t vote in its best interests? Color me surprised.
https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=9fe1ym6Sq94Replies: @Barnard
The more people found out about McMullin, the less likely they were to vote for him. I think a lot of his voters supported him because a Conservatism, Inc. writer they like was endorsing McMullin. As long as they thought they were voting against Trump in the name of morality they were fine a placeholder like McMullin.
California has almost 40 million people in it. There must be at least 5 million Whites who feel that they are not being represented by the Democrats who control the state. The Whites in California, unlike the Whites in Texas, do not vote together as a bloc. That is why Texas has managed to stay Republican at the state level while having a similar percentage of Whites in the electorate.
Mitt Romney and the Mormon Mafia put up that lousy twat Egg McMullin. President Trump owes the Mormon Mafia not one damn thing. When President Trump decides to clean house at the CIA, the first bastards he should fire en masse should be the unpatriotic Egg McMullin-type twats.
McMuffin has his issues. But Trump’s personal issues are turning out to have major ramifications like Clinton.
The real moral failing in Trump’s “grab her pussy” tape recording was him admitting to hyper-aggressively trying to f*ck some guy’s wife.
The guy who does that can lie his ass off to your face and then laugh about it later. This is exactly what he’s doing to his base.
Let’s see if he announces that we’re staying in the co2 kook conspiracy Paris agreement while he’s overseas. Maybe he’ll do it while sitting with the imposter pope at the Vatican.
“F*CK THE BASE.”
He's just looking for a handout. He got some by sucking up to nevetrumpers. His 15 min of fame.
“McMullin has a lesbian mother, no wife, and may be gay.”
McMuffin was the American version of Macron. It’s interesting what it says about some of the family values vote (probably suburban moms mostly): they’re more interested in bland unoffensiveness than in, you know, issues.
Apparently if a guy screams “bitch, you’re about to drive off a cliff!” the most important fact is that he called you a bitch, not that he just saved your life.
The real moral failing in Trump's "grab her pussy" tape recording was him admitting to hyper-aggressively trying to f*ck some guy's wife.
The guy who does that can lie his ass off to your face and then laugh about it later. This is exactly what he's doing to his base.
Let's see if he announces that we're staying in the co2 kook conspiracy Paris agreement while he's overseas. Maybe he'll do it while sitting with the imposter pope at the Vatican.
"F*CK THE BASE."Replies: @Anon
McMullin is like that miffed bald guy in STATE AND MAIN.
He’s just looking for a handout. He got some by sucking up to nevetrumpers. His 15 min of fame.
Somewhat OT: This graph here claimed Hillary lost 2 million potential black votes when her totals dropped back to the usual white candidate normal.
http://www.zerohedge.com/news/2017-05-10/real-reason-hillary-lost-black-people-just-dont-her
What I noticed about the graph is than in years in which the Democratic candidate is a southern white male, the turnout seems to be unusually low among blacks. They apparently like northern males instead of southern males.
McMuffin was the American version of Macron. It's interesting what it says about some of the family values vote (probably suburban moms mostly): they're more interested in bland unoffensiveness than in, you know, issues.
Apparently if a guy screams "bitch, you're about to drive off a cliff!" the most important fact is that he called you a bitch, not that he just saved your life.Replies: @Yojimbo/Zatoichi, @AnotherDad
then the main thing is finding some inoffensive word while attempting to save her life. White women really don’t like being called that word, do they? Must be a sign of rudeness, and not very nice. I’ll bet Mitt Romney never called a woman that word.
Wonder what Mitt’s been up to since trump won.
Speaking of family formation: this list of childless European leaders was just posted on Twitter.
http://twitter.com/RaheemKassam/status/862424417070190593
It would be interesting to gather more data and see if number of offspring correlates with policies supporting AFF.
Not surprising Hillary had the states with the high amount of sexual deviant/creep vote locked up. The Dems have never been about morals, traditional family, values, etc.
In fact they hate them.
Edsall is the best columnist at the NYT. A lot of his work covers the same ground covered here at iSteve.
http://twitter.com/RaheemKassam/status/862424417070190593It would be interesting to gather more data and see if number of offspring correlates with policies supporting AFF.Replies: @Lurker
Which raises the question – do they pursue destructive polices because they are childless and/or were they chosen because of their lack of children? Political eunuchs who can found no dynasty.
I’ve wondered if something similar is going on with gays? Whatever riches and power they pile up in this life it dies with them.
During the 90s, California real estate prices began their extreme climb and the SoCal defense/aerospace sector laid off lots of workers. During the 90s, the state also rapidly transitioned from solidly Republican to solidly Democratic. So it seems plausible that the reduction of affordable family formation may have been the critical factor that flipped California from Red to Blue.
A lot of the fiercest clashes between pro-Trump and anti-Trump factions have happened in California, especially in SoCal (Anaheim, Huntington Beach, San Diego). There was a major confrontation in Berkeley too. One journalist claimed that California had more Patriot anti-govt groups than any other state, which puzzled him. I wonder if lots of California whites, on some level, feel angry that they've lost their promise land and feel a need to fight for their future.Replies: @Autochthon, @countenance, @cynthia curran
Wonder no more; I’m here to tell you, you don’t know the half of how pissed off we are….
“I’ve wondered if something similar is going on with gays? Whatever riches and power they pile up in this life it dies with them.”
That’s a very interesting question. I imagine the assets wind up with:
1) Some kind of relative(s).
2) An abstract entity like a university, foundation, or charity.
3) The government though taxes of whatever sort.
I wonder what happens to the assets of someone who dies, with no will, nor any relatives to make a claim? Or how close a relative you need to be? I mean a 3rd cousin who the deceased met only once or twice in a lifetime?
Anyway given the increasing prevalence of this phenomena in our society, you’d think someone would have written a paper on just this by now.
George Soros, Rupert Murdoch and yes, Donald Trump have a ton of kids. They will inherit not just assets but contacts and information and a place in existing networks of influence. That plus those juicy assets will make them important in the decades to come.
Rich, childless gays in finance, media or whatever will not be leaving behind anything like that, even if a ton of money goes to 3rd cousins who the deceased met only once or twice in a lifetime. That won't be rocking the boat or displacing the scion of a powerful family. And if it goes to assorted abstract entities or the government then it's largely supporting the status quo. So it's all good.
Thats my theory for now.
No, Creutzfeldt-Jakob disease. He called it the “Breeder Advantage” because the anti-natalism of the Democratic platform forced them to shift towards immigration as a method of replacing the electorate. John Reilly thought that was likely to have an unintended consequence of destroying what progressive politics looked like in the late twentieth century.
The name was rather tongue-in-cheek, but regrettably jokes are far less funny when you need to explain them.
Will Dwayne ‘the Rock’ Johnson actually run for president? ‘It’s a real possibility.’
During the 90s, California real estate prices began their extreme climb and the SoCal defense/aerospace sector laid off lots of workers. During the 90s, the state also rapidly transitioned from solidly Republican to solidly Democratic. So it seems plausible that the reduction of affordable family formation may have been the critical factor that flipped California from Red to Blue.
A lot of the fiercest clashes between pro-Trump and anti-Trump factions have happened in California, especially in SoCal (Anaheim, Huntington Beach, San Diego). There was a major confrontation in Berkeley too. One journalist claimed that California had more Patriot anti-govt groups than any other state, which puzzled him. I wonder if lots of California whites, on some level, feel angry that they've lost their promise land and feel a need to fight for their future.Replies: @Autochthon, @countenance, @cynthia curran
One journalist claimed that California had more Patriot anti-govt groups than any other state, which puzzled him.
Said journalist probably parroted what he/she/xe/it/they read on the SPLC website, and as we all know, the SPLC tends to count extinct groups that were never really much of anything when they were extant, and post office boxes, and lots of phantoms, as “groups.”
McMuffin basically scooped up the Mormons and other assorted cuckservatives that did vote for Romney in ’12 but couldn’t bring themselves to vote for Trump.
So Trump plus McMuffin (2016) = Romney minus rust belt WCWs (2012).
“the Cuck”
That's a very interesting question. I imagine the assets wind up with:
1) Some kind of relative(s).
2) An abstract entity like a university, foundation, or charity.
3) The government though taxes of whatever sort.
I wonder what happens to the assets of someone who dies, with no will, nor any relatives to make a claim? Or how close a relative you need to be? I mean a 3rd cousin who the deceased met only once or twice in a lifetime?
Anyway given the increasing prevalence of this phenomena in our society, you'd think someone would have written a paper on just this by now.Replies: @Lurker
I’m sure the assets end up going somewhere! But on the whole, not to direct descendants.
George Soros, Rupert Murdoch and yes, Donald Trump have a ton of kids. They will inherit not just assets but contacts and information and a place in existing networks of influence. That plus those juicy assets will make them important in the decades to come.
Rich, childless gays in finance, media or whatever will not be leaving behind anything like that, even if a ton of money goes to 3rd cousins who the deceased met only once or twice in a lifetime. That won’t be rocking the boat or displacing the scion of a powerful family. And if it goes to assorted abstract entities or the government then it’s largely supporting the status quo. So it’s all good.
Thats my theory for now.
How about an example?
Is there any data on this correlation at an individual level? I.e. within a red state, are Democrats more likely to marry later and have fewer children?
I’m wondering if something a bit more intricate is happening than just the obvious, that people who marry young, etc identify a certain way and vote Republican. Because that’s a bit amazing, since nothing in the Republican platform or rhetoric appears to target the marrying-young crowd. Plus, the differences are not enormous – it’s not as if red state whites are having 7 children apiece.
One example of how something subtler could potentially be at play – where whites have fewer children, there will be more jobs for outsiders, encouraging immigration, who then vote Democrat for ethnic identity reasons.
I'm wondering if something a bit more intricate is happening than just the obvious, that people who marry young, etc identify a certain way and vote Republican. Because that's a bit amazing, since nothing in the Republican platform or rhetoric appears to target the marrying-young crowd. Plus, the differences are not enormous - it's not as if red state whites are having 7 children apiece.
One example of how something subtler could potentially be at play - where whites have fewer children, there will be more jobs for outsiders, encouraging immigration, who then vote Democrat for ethnic identity reasons.Replies: @Anonymous
Family businesses tend to grow to the size of the family, then stop. Businesses started by people without children or with no thought to involving them in it are far more likely to become major enterprises.
McMuffin was the American version of Macron. It's interesting what it says about some of the family values vote (probably suburban moms mostly): they're more interested in bland unoffensiveness than in, you know, issues.
Apparently if a guy screams "bitch, you're about to drive off a cliff!" the most important fact is that he called you a bitch, not that he just saved your life.Replies: @Yojimbo/Zatoichi, @AnotherDad
Great quip, Wilkey. You could turn that into a little metaphor for political-sexual relations in the West.
Did Dr. Lesthaeghe concede personally or as he cited you somewhere?
Moving from metro L.A. to Nebraska, as I have, is great fun for demographics enthusiasts. Yes, everyone is whiter, but there are also kids everywhere. The bar scene is very young (college age mostly) because all the couples older than 24 are out pushing their kids in strollers at the local night market.
A TFR above 2.0 produces noticeable (though anecdotal) results.
He wrote me a very gracious email.
A TFR above 2.0 produces noticeable (though anecdotal) results.Replies: @The Practical Conservative
Especially when it comes from nonwhite imports. Which is the case in Nebraska.
I imagine McMullin’s support was mainly from people who wouldn’t vote for Hillary because they’re conservative, and wouldn’t vote for Trump because nothing about his life suggests that he’s conservative, either in terms of political ideology or in terms of personal morality.
Some time ago I read a comment (probably here) about a Mormon couple with eight kids.
Seven of the kids bore a clear resemblance to either or both of the parents, but one was obviously half-black.
The father admitted that the half-black one was born during a “rough patch” in the marriage.
Seven of the kids bore a clear resemblance to either or both of the parents, but one was obviously half-black.
The father admitted that the half-black one was born during a "rough patch" in the marriage.Replies: @Steve Sailer, @Anonymous
I met a couple like that. I was warned ahead of time not to act surprised that the 5th of the 7 kids was part black.
I wonder what’s been up Mitt.
Seven of the kids bore a clear resemblance to either or both of the parents, but one was obviously half-black.
The father admitted that the half-black one was born during a "rough patch" in the marriage.Replies: @Steve Sailer, @Anonymous
Probably a rape victim. And that’s the story they came up with if anyone inquired.
There are a lot more willing "race traitors" out there than some of us might care to think about.
Tingles weave a tangled web of lust, deceit, and miscellaneous dysfunction.
Despite what modern colleges want you to believe, you can't retroactively declare rape
Yes, I think it was you who made the comment.
That’s an odd assumption to make.
There are a lot more willing “race traitors” out there than some of us might care to think about.
Tingles weave a tangled web of lust, deceit, and miscellaneous dysfunction.
A lot of Trump votes and Republican votes were empty nesters. People 50 plus where their kids left their nests. In fact Sailer is way off, since Trump and McMullian did better with empty nesters than young married couples with kids. I say the Japanese model is better than the high birth rate married model. Trump did worst than Romney in counties with young couples with kids but better with empty nasters. Unlike Sailer, aged the US not increase the birth rate which will moved it into the direction of the left. Japan, baby.
During the 90s, California real estate prices began their extreme climb and the SoCal defense/aerospace sector laid off lots of workers. During the 90s, the state also rapidly transitioned from solidly Republican to solidly Democratic. So it seems plausible that the reduction of affordable family formation may have been the critical factor that flipped California from Red to Blue.
A lot of the fiercest clashes between pro-Trump and anti-Trump factions have happened in California, especially in SoCal (Anaheim, Huntington Beach, San Diego). There was a major confrontation in Berkeley too. One journalist claimed that California had more Patriot anti-govt groups than any other state, which puzzled him. I wonder if lots of California whites, on some level, feel angry that they've lost their promise land and feel a need to fight for their future.Replies: @Autochthon, @countenance, @cynthia curran
Partially true, but Trump did better in the 50 plus category and Ca has lost of lot of whites that are 50 plus. Texas is now losing a lot of 50 plus whites. Also, the post world war baby boom lead the US to the left since people wanted to pay more taxes to built schools and roads. Prop 13 occurred when birth rates dropped in the 1980’s and people wanted to pay less for schools. Ca and New York still have higher family formation if Latinos are included. Trump did the best in states where family formation is dropping, West Virginia, Wyoming. Both states have the lowest family formation in the US but Sailer doesn’t want to tell the truth here. By, the way Texas dropped a whopping 6 percent for Trump versus Romney. Its the upper middle class people with kids not the older folks that don’t kids. Mcmullian got .3 percent of the vote in the US since he was in the ballot in only 8 states at the most.
Another thing birth rate has less to do with family formation. Many states won by Trump have old populations and will have less kids. West Virginia is the 4th oldest state and PA the second oldest state while California is still younger than the us because of the Latinos coming in about 30 years ago. This means that Ca will continue to have a lot more family formation than West Virginia and PA since its younger. It doesn’t matter if Ca has a birthrate .2 lower than PA or West Virginia. Sailer has always played with stats. In fact according to Sailer’s thinking, Utah and Texas should have went big for Trump since they have younger populations that are having kids more but Trump did much better in states without young populations like Kentucky and West Virginia. Also, as much above, McMullin has little impact on the election. In fact Gary Johnson would be more honest in this family formation study.
The reality is the Huntington Beach rally was pretty peaceful. The media overplayed it. There was fighting for less than 10 minutes among 2,000 people. There were a lot more violence clashes in Dallas and Houston Texas but the media didn’t cover them. Berkeley was pretty bad though.
The name was rather tongue-in-cheek, but regrettably jokes are far less funny when you need to explain them.Replies: @Colleen Pater
Growing up in the village I knew a lot of “gays” and Breeder was a common slur they used to describe the “straight” in both senses of the slang.
Key word being story.
Despite what modern colleges want you to believe, you can’t retroactively declare rape