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The first 2016 general election poll of September is also the first poll to show Trump beating Hillary. From May through July, Hillary was up by anywhere from 12 to 24 points over Trump. He’s now up by five points, continuing a trend in Trump’s direction in August:

Poll Date Sample MoE Clinton (D) Trump (R) Spread
RCP Average 8/11 – 9/3 45.8 43.4 Clinton +2.4
SurveyUSA 9/2 – 9/3 900 RV 3.3 40 45 Trump +5
PPP (D) 8/28 – 8/30 1254 RV 2.8 46 44 Clinton +2
Quinnipiac 8/20 – 8/25 1563 RV 2.5 45 41 Clinton +4
CNN/ORC 8/13 – 8/16 897 RV 3.5 51 45 Clinton +6
FOX News 8/11 – 8/13 1008 RV 3.0 47 42 Clinton +5

The demographics in this new SurveyUSA poll are interesting, although the sample sizes are small.

They are pretty much the opposite of the conventional wisdom. Relative to traditional Republican candidates, Trump is doing very well among blacks (down only 25-59) and Asians (leading 41-39) and doing reasonably well among Hispanics (down 31-50). Among whites, however, Trump is leading Hillary only 51-34, which might be a little under what would be expected for a Republican up 5 points.

Trump is winning heavily (54-36) among those who say they pay a lot of attention to politics, and is winning 48-40 among college graduates.

Trump’s strongest region is the Midwest, where he is up 49-31.

The news that Trump, who tends to strike hip-hop fans as having the kind of style that they’d want to have if they were a rich old white guy and whose positions on immigration and trade sound more likely to help black Americans earn a living than just about anybody else’s, is on track to win, say, 30% of the black vote will likely start to panic Democratic strategists, especially if it holds up in additional polls.

Expect to see a concerted effort to demonize Trump among blacks. Obama carried the Great Lakes Rust Belt (outside of Indiana) in 2012 by running up huge margins among blacks while the Romney-Ryan ticket kept whites in the region depressed and divided. A Republican who is strong in the upper Midwest is an Electoral College nightmare for the Democrats.

One thing that’s going on is that Trump is benefiting from the Revolt of the Comedians. Awhile ago, beloved elder statesman Jerry Seinfeld spoke up against comedy-killing campus conformity, citing his friend Chris Rock as support. Some people wondered why I wrote a Taki column recently quoting at length the somewhat obscure comedian Colin Quinn. But he’s an old friend of Seinfeld, Rock, and some other well-known comedy names, and I suspect Quinn articulates in public how a lot of comedians feel in private.

Trump is not himself hugely funny (except in a meta sense, in which he’s hilarious), but he exemplifies an American value that we feel slipping away: liberty. Americans used to say, “Well, it’s a free country.” They don’t anymore. The Statue of Liberty once stood for an American’s right to say what he felt was true. Now the Statue of Liberty has been repurposed as an icon of how Americans had better shut up about immigration and diversity.

Donald J. Trump is the living embodiment of the First Amendment.

On the other hand, there are a lot of foreign policy issues on which the President really shouldn’t mouth off. For example, the official stance of the United States government since February 1972 has been that China and Taiwan are one country that should be under one government; we just won’t say which one.

Granted, that’s ridiculous, but, at least so far it has worked. And therefore the President shouldn’t say it’s ridiculous even though everybody knows it is.

A low energy guy like Obama, who more or less was raised to be some kind of Foreign Service diplomat, is probably not going to tell an interviewer that of course China and Taiwan are separate countries: everybody knows that. But a President Trump might.

In contrast, domestic policy (e.g., immigration policy) should be far more of a free for all than it is under the current rules of what’s respectable. Obama’s diplomatic Blank Screen approach where nobody is supposed to get the joke about why we elected this guy President has been a slow-moving disaster. I suspect that deep down Obama feels bad about how his Administration has, in effect, agitated blacks to murder each other, all in the name of #BlackLivesMatter. But “personnel is policy” and a lot of Obama’s appointees, such as Eric Holder, have been too dim to figure out what they are doing to America.

When it comes to domestic policy, Congress and the courts have huge says, so the President using his bully pulpit is a good thing: the embodiment of democracy.

But much of foreign policy, perhaps too much, is handed over to the President under the guise of the National Security state. So the President has less freedom to spout off his opinion about whatever comes to his attention, such as, say, the division of Cyprus into Greek and Turkish spheres. Trump the Dealmaker might just be able to spitball aloud some wacky Cyprus innovation he dreamed up that actually improves that less-than-optimal but 4-decade long stable situation. But Trump the President could also destabilize it by sounding off about how everybody on the island would be better off if only they’d work out a deal and the U.S. wants change.

Did, say, Obama blow up the Arab world (with the present dire consequences) by going to Cairo in 2009 and making an ambiguous speech? Perhaps.

Trump has a little under a year and a half to grow into the job. It’s a challenge, but not impossible. Mostly, he needs to get across that he’s not going to upset settled foreign policy just for fun.

There are two sides to Trump:

– The no-publicity-is-bad-publicity-as-long-as-they-spell-“Trump”-right TV time hound

– The expert negotiator who plays his cards close to the vest

The good news is that Trump likely doesn’t care much about foreign policy, especially areas like Taiwan and Cyprus where sleeping dogs can probably be let lie a few years longer. Moreover as President, Trump would hardly be in pressing need of more publicity by stirring up unneeded foreign policy controversies beyond the ones in which he has a carefully decided upon strategy for making a deal on his terms.

 
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  1. • Replies: @Anonymous
    I'm not a fan of Snowden and agree with Trump. If you're entrusted with secrets by your country and you leak them, even to just the press, you're a traitor and should be shot. And if you're a narcissistic misfit, it's better you find a job that doesn't require loyalty to something greater than your own inchoate understanding of liberty.

    Btw, after Snowden's recent criticism of Russia's crackdown on rights (not gay friendly enough?), Russia ought to ship his ass back to the U.S.
  2. OT.
    Vibrant African courtship customs amuse Frenchwoman:

    Girl slapped because she doesn’t want to give her phone number

    @InYourSalad
    You made me laugh, fellow countryman=)
    Posted Apr-23-2013 By Skytech (174.30)

    @Argh Funny as heck, thanks for the belly laugh!
    Posted Apr-23-2013 By joelhar (332.70)

    • Replies: @Harry Baldwin
    The Knockout Game comes to France, courtesy of African refugees, and teenaged girls are fair game! What a sad end to a once great culture.
    , @SteveO
    Where is there an "amused Frenchwoman" or any other truly French person showing anything but anger and disdain at this behavior? The person laughing hysterically is African, or Afro-French.

    Of the comments you quote, I'm pretty sure "fellow countryman" refers to an African nationality, not French, unless it's meant ironically.

    The "funny as heck" comment is not in response to the video, it's an approving response to a comment that the perpetrator ought to be shot.

    I have no idea if this video received any distribution outside fringe sites like liveleak, but I'm pretty sure that ordinary French people would be outraged, not amused, by it. The video is a cautionary tale about letting people from less civilized cultures into your country; by itself, it's not a sign of the decline of French civilization because these guys are not a part of that civilization.
  3. I wonder how much of this is Hillary’s popularity melting like a bar of soap as the email mess drags on. This Stephen Miller piece was pretty brutal: http://www.nationalreview.com/article/423544/hillarys-e-mails-reveal-dependence-on-aides

    • Replies: @Bill B.
    You know how being president or prime minister accelerates aging? (™ Tony Blair.)

    If Hillary gets two terms they'll have to rename the White House The Crypt.
    , @Luke Lea
    Hillary is a "yoga-routine addict" ? That will cost her points right there.

    Read more at: http://www.nationalreview.com/article/423544/hillarys-e-mails-reveal-dependence-on-aides
    , @annamaria
    perhaps it was her allegiance to Monsanto (GMO specifically, which made her intolerable to the left-leaning populace of all ages
  4. Trump is winning the Florida primary in the latest poll with more support than Jeb and Rubio combined. Jeb is now in third place in his home state behind Carson as well.

  5. Trump is “only” leading Hillary 51-39 among Whites. But election stats often lump in Scots-Irish, Middle Easterners and even Indians as Whites. Among real Whites it’s much higher. Hillary is the personification of the puritanical, censorious and psuedo-intellectual feminist yenta; she didn’t even have to marry her daughter off into them to be the MSM’s poster girl.

    • Replies: @Troy
    Some people still don't consider Scots-Irish to be white? I thought that went out of fashion a century ago.

    Genetically speaking Scots-Irish and Middle Easterners are naturally classed together with (other) Europeans. Indians are a mixture.
    , @Lepanto
    "Real whites" Care to specify? Define? It is a real question.
    , @Kevin O'Keeffe
    "Trump is “only” leading Hillary 51-39 among Whites. But election stats often lump in Scots-Irish, Middle Easterners and even Indians as Whites. Among real Whites it’s much higher."

    I'm not going to address this peculiar notion that Scots-Irish somehow aren't "real Whites," and simply note that neither us have seen any specific polling data with respect to Scots-Irish enthusiasm for the ongoing Trumpification. My suspicion, is that he's probably doing disproportionately well within that grouping. And while that's merely my unsupported opinion, I think it carries a bit more weight than the opinion of a person who imagines that Davy Crocket, Kit Carson, Jimmy Carter, and Jim Webb (among many, many other notables), are somehow other-than-White.
    , @ShlomoShunn
    > "puritanical, censorious and psuedo-intellectual feminist yenta"

    Perfect!
  6. A very famous rapper made a song about Trump.

    • Replies: @PistolPete
    https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=GLa9YxV1Xps

    another Trump rap song.

    It would never happen, but imagine Trump won the black vote. Democrats head would EPLODE. Now that would be funny.
    , @CK
    You might want to recheck the definition of the word "about".
    The song is about: kilo's in his trunk and women in red in his crib.
  7. “Expect to see a concerted effort to demonize Trump among blacks.”

    This seems exactly right. Much as they did turning Trump’s words on illegals into a generalized statement about all immigrants, the MSM and democrat operatives (I know, I repeat myself) can’t wait to do the same with some truthful comment Trump makes about blacks.

    I have always tried to avoid talking politics with co-workers, but one guy I did talk to felt strongly that all the evils of the world were caused and promoted by Republicans. Of course he was a black guy (professional, Masters degree), which is not interesting, but he was a huge Trump fan which I did find interesting. He would quote him all the time. He wanted the Trump lifestyle, or least a scaled down version of it. I have to look him up and see what he thinks of the election. Maybe I’ll wait until after the demonization starts.

  8. The Statue of Liberty once stood for an American’s right to say what he felt was true. Now the Statue of Liberty has been repurposed as an icon of how Americans had better shut up about immigration and diversity.

    Truer words, never spoken. I tire of pointing out to people that the poem inscribed on the statue’s base wasn’t actually spoken by the statue, or excerpted from the Constitution. Rather, an obscure Jewish Anarchist scribbled them one day, and the rest? Pseud0-history.

    • Replies: @Marat

    Americans used to say, “Well, it’s a free country.” They don’t anymore. The Statue of Liberty once stood for an American’s right to say what he felt was true. Now the Statue of Liberty has been repurposed as an icon of how Americans had better shut up about immigration and diversity.
     
    Part of what we used to call "the American way of life" has been purposely stamped out, but is still in the memory bank of the American character. That is what The Donald harkens back to -- American character of old. With his un-PC remarks, he awakens memories lost but familiar.

    In Bolshevik Silicon Valley the disconnect with the past seems almost complete even among the Boomer generation. No one here would be caught dead with a Trump bumper sticker for fear of SJ mob violence. However, those same people do remember what a civilized society was like, and they do want it for their children. These same people are still wallowing in the Narrative because it has become the learned null task -- the path of least resistance and safety. They will become emboldened as Trump succeeds among their peers elsewhere and the system deteriorates. Plenty of people are quiet simply because of the imposed tyrannical Dominant Thought. The will is there, it is just incubating.
  9. “Trump is not himself hugely funny”.

    I think Trump is hilarious. Everytime he talks about Jeb Bush he starts by saying how much he likes him and what a good guy he i, and then boom! he hits him stating that he is low energy. Comedy gold. You just know Trump is being smug and insincere when he says it. Makes me laugh every time.

  10. anon • Disclaimer says:

    well, now we know why Israel accepts so few refugees:

    “‘This is a unique and unbelievable initiative that is all about Jewish continuity,’ Y2I chairman Jeremy Dunkel told The AJN. ‘We have a crystal ball – in the North American Jewish community – and we see intermarriage and assimilation as real issues, so we want to stop those trends in Australia.’”

    http://www.jewishnews.net.au/massive-drive-to-send-kids-to-israel/49617

    Well, i already knew this, but it’s nice having your worldview confirmed.

  11. I hope Trump can use this headline the next time he is confronted by Jorge Ramos or any other Univision/La Raz robot…

    A United States appeals court: Mexico is a violator of The United Nations Convention against Torture.

    “Country conditions evidence shows that police specifically target the transgender community for extortion and sexual favors, and that Mexico suffers from an epidemic of unsolved violent crimes against transgender persons,” wrote Judge Jacqueline Nguyen for the 9th Circuit Court’s decision.

    http://redalertpolitics.com/2015/09/04/transgendered-illegal-immigrant-arrested-twice-drunk-driving-cant-deported/#1XhWQXegtBFYduvA.99

  12. I like Trump as much as the next guy, but I’m not sure I can vote for somebody who says his favorite foreign policy thinker is John Bolton. John Bolton … are you kidding me? Talk about “personnel is policy”!

    • Replies: @Glossy
    I just looked it up. It's true.

    http://www.motherjones.com/politics/2015/08/donald-trump-john-bolton-iraq-war

    In that Meet the Press interview, host Chuck Todd asked Trump to identify his "go-to" experts for national security matters. Trump said he "probably" had two or three. Todd pressed the tycoon for names, and the first one Trump mentioned was John Bolton, the George W. Bush administration's ambassador to the United Nations. "He's, you know, a tough cookie, knows what he's talking about," Trump said. (He also named retired Col. Jack Jacobs, an MSNBC military analyst.)

    He's still better than Jeb or Hillary. Just not on foreign policy.
    , @Mr. Anon
    "I like Trump as much as the next guy, but I’m not sure I can vote for somebody who says his favorite foreign policy thinker is John Bolton. John Bolton … are you kidding me? Talk about “personnel is policy”!"

    Yes, when it comes to foreign policy, Trump hasn't offered anything different than the establishment concensus - overseas empire and perpetual war.

    , @Anonymous
    I saw the interview. I think he just said Bolton because that's just who came to mind and he was winging it. He also mentioned that he gets his foreign policy knowledge from "watching the shows". I don't think he had carefully thought out and crafted foreign policy answers and just winged it.

    I don't think Trump is very ideological but is primarily personality driven. Bolton is very aggressive and argumentative on TV, much more than your ordinary pundit, and that's probably why he made a positive impression on Trump, rather than anything ideological.
  13. In conclusion , trump boasting about being rich, dressing like a million, and banging great looking broads it’s going to be enough for him to grab a good segment of the black vote. He needs a couple of more photo ops with the likes of Jay-z to seal the deal. Cause we all know where the blacks get their political views from.

    • Replies: @Honorary Thief
    You've nailed it. Trump is a "baller" in black eyes.
    , @tbraton
    " Cause we all know where the blacks get their political views from."

    Bill Cosby?
  14. @JohnnyWalker123
    A very famous rapper made a song about Trump.

    https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=BwHnhsuaNbw

    another Trump rap song.

    It would never happen, but imagine Trump won the black vote. Democrats head would EPLODE. Now that would be funny.

    • Replies: @Richard

    It would never happen, but imagine Trump won the black vote. Democrats head would EPLODE. Now that would be funny.
     
    He won't win the black vote, but he doesn't need to to have dramatic effects on the race. In 2012 Obama won the black vote 93% to 6%; since blacks formed 13% of the electorate (according to the Roper Center), that's a net vote gain of 11.3 points for the Democrats nationally.

    If Trump draws 25% of the black vote, as the latest poll is giving him, that reduces the Democrats' net vote from blacks to 6.5 points. That cuts nearly 5 points from Obama's margin over Romney; instead of a 4 point Obama win, Romney now wins the popular vote by 1.

    Give the Republican 30% of the black vote, and Romney would have won by 2 points.

    Assuming all other groups stay as they were in 2012, a Republican would only need to capture 21% of the black vote to cancel out Obama's popular vote margin.
    , @LondonBob
    Trump would be America's first black president.
  15. My initial enthusiasm for him has strongly diminished, and is now only somewhat lukewarm. Since releasing his great immigration reform plan he has only backpedaled.

    Hope he doesn’t cuck out completely.

    • Replies: @schmenz
    Agreed. And his idiotic comments about Snowden and praise for war criminals like Bolton dampened my enthusiasm considerably. I was pleased he initially had strong words to say about the mad butchers of Planned Parenthood, but since then there has been silence.
  16. StevSail said:

    Trump is not himself hugely funny (except in a meta sense, in which he’s hilarious),

    I beg to differ. Trump has sent some zingers down range since the campaign began, my favourite being: “Hedi Klum, sadly no longer a 10”.

    He is able to think on his feet. And he enjoys putting other people down. Both of which are pre-requisites for comics.

    • Replies: @Clyde

    I beg to differ. Trump has sent some zingers down range since the campaign began, my favourite being: “Hedi Klum, sadly no longer a 10″.
    He is able to think on his feet. And he enjoys putting other people down. Both of which are pre-requisites for comics.
     
    I would like to get Don Rickles and Jackie Mason's opinions on Donald Trump's shtick / performance art.
  17. I think the real reason that China-Taiwan is stable is because China is busy building its military, and Taiwan can’t declare independence without American buy-in, which GW Bush flirted with in April 2001 but corrected in December 2003. As the Chinese military improves and the US grows weary of being the world’s policeman, the opportunity ripens for Chinese invasion. If that reignites American interest, we could have a disastrous World War III. Rather than do nothing until that happens, America could accept China as a regional power and pressure Taiwan to negotiate a mutually favorable reunification.

    • Replies: @MarkinLA
    China will eventually issue an ultimatum to Taiwan - accept Chinese rule with limited autonomy like Hong Kong or be invaded. Taiwan will be absorbed into China. The Chinese care about money more than anything else and a war would just screw all that up.
    , @Karl
    >> America could accept China as a regional power

    Apparently you never read the transcribed speeches of USCINCPAC.





    >>> and pressure Taiwan to negotiate a mutually favorable reunification.

    Economically, there is essentially no border. Taiwanese businessmen have a better visa/banking/regulations regime going for them in PRC, than a Canadian businessman does in the USA. It takes a Singaporean to give the Taiwanese a run for their money in PRC. Americans are not in the running.
  18. Anonymous • Disclaimer says:
    @Maj. Kong
    Thoughts?

    Trump on Russia

    http://www.cnn.com/videos/tv/2015/07/09/donald-trump-on-snowden-putin-cooper-sot-ac.cnn

    I’m not a fan of Snowden and agree with Trump. If you’re entrusted with secrets by your country and you leak them, even to just the press, you’re a traitor and should be shot. And if you’re a narcissistic misfit, it’s better you find a job that doesn’t require loyalty to something greater than your own inchoate understanding of liberty.

    Btw, after Snowden’s recent criticism of Russia’s crackdown on rights (not gay friendly enough?), Russia ought to ship his ass back to the U.S.

    • Replies: @Mr. Anon
    "I’m not a fan of Snowden and agree with Trump. If you’re entrusted with secrets by your country and you leak them, even to just the press, you’re a traitor and should be shot."

    Tryanical nonsense. Loyalty to the nation is not the same thing as loyalty to the state. Snowden is loyal to America, and he proved it by being disloyal to his bureaucratic masters, who were illegally spying on.............everyone. What you advocate leads nowhere but to a total police state.
    , @Lugash
    Yeah, how dare Snowden reveal the unconstitutional crimes of the transnational security state.
  19. Still waiting on the GOP consulting class to get inside Trump’s OODA Loop. Any day now it’ll happen and this nightmare will be all over and they can get back to the important business of losing national elections

    • Replies: @AlanP

    Still waiting on the GOP consulting class to get inside Trump’s OODA Loop. Any day now it’ll happen and this nightmare will be all over and they can get back to the important business of losing national elections.

     

    LOL.

    We already know the donor class is planning a barrage of anti-Trump ads prior to the second debate. It will be interesting to see how Trump parries this thrust which he knows is coming.

    Even if Trump goes down he has already killed off Jeb's chance at the nomination. For that alone we owe him a debt of gratitude.
    , @Alfa158
    Well luckily for the Trump the level of intellect that makes up the Republican consulting class has as much chance of getting inside his OODA loop as a Boeing 747 has of looping inside a Spad.
  20. Saw Jon Lovitz a couple of weekends ago in DC. He mostly coasted by on his old stuff for the last 40 minutes of his show, but the first 25 (of a 65 min set) was all about Trump.

    And not all of it was bad, in fact, you could argue Lovitz enjoyed having someone like Trump to contrast to just about anyone. Not to mention he got 25 mins out of it, which is an eternity for a guy just playing out the string like Lovitz (and still getting $30/ticket).

    I think Trump is a godsend for comedians. Not only for the impressions and joke opportunities, but also for the moving of the Overton window on all topics. Especially since the guy heading out the door was impossible to joke about for the first 5 years of his term (and maybe more). A breath of fresh air perhaps. Go Trump.

    • Replies: @Dave Pinsen
    Your comment brings to mind a recent interview with Lovitz's fellow SNL alumnus Norm MacDonald in the Hollywood Reporter: http://thr.cm/xLo4lJ

    MacDonald said once you're famous, you never bomb, and he unironically compared Trump to Hitler.
    , @Prof. Woland
    It also helps that he is white. These last 7 years have been difficult for comedians. The best thing about making fun of Trump is that you can use him as a surrogate to go after the groups and people you cannot go after directly. "Donald Trump met with Al Sharpton today and look how ridiculous his hair looked. Trump I mean".
  21. @Dave Pinsen
    I wonder how much of this is Hillary's popularity melting like a bar of soap as the email mess drags on. This Stephen Miller piece was pretty brutal: http://www.nationalreview.com/article/423544/hillarys-e-mails-reveal-dependence-on-aides

    You know how being president or prime minister accelerates aging? (™ Tony Blair.)

    If Hillary gets two terms they’ll have to rename the White House The Crypt.

    • Replies: @The Anti-Gnostic
    Trump is actually 17 months older than Hillary. But I'm in the camp that thinks Hillary has already had one stroke and/or is a heavy drinker. A Hillary presidency might be really interesting; we'd probably see America's first military coup under Hillary.

    Whoever is President in 2016 will likely preside over a major economic recession and I'd hate to see a nativist/citizenist like Tump get tagged with it.
    , @JohnnyWalker123
    Researchers have simulated what Hillary Clinton will look like by the end of her term, given her current aging rate.

    https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=yu_eXegPAWc
  22. 1. I question how “smart” Obama is, but even stipulating that
    2. I seriously question whether he “knows what he is doing” to America. He said
    he was going to “fundamentally change” it, and he has.

  23. Off-topic: Harvard-educated ex-NYPD detective writes about race and policing in the WSJ:

    http://www.wsj.com/articles/the-racial-reality-of-policing-1441390980

  24. @JohnnyWalker123
    A very famous rapper made a song about Trump.

    https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=BwHnhsuaNbw

    You might want to recheck the definition of the word “about”.
    The song is about: kilo’s in his trunk and women in red in his crib.

    • Replies: @JohnnyWalker123
    A song can be about several individuals.

    He invokes frequent comparisons to Trump in the song.
  25. Trump, America’s Berlusconi.

    Amusing seeing the British media’s hysteria over him, they seem to be reassuring themselves that he won’t win the nomination which has now shifted to Presidency given the nomination looks assured.

  26. Peter Meyer [AKA "Peter Fagan"] says:

    Trump, who tends to strike hip-hop fans as having the kind of style that they’d want to have if they were a rich old white guy

    This is exactly it. Trump surely won’t win the black or Hispanic votes outright, but he may do better than a typical Republican simply because:

    1) He’s a celebrity. Most NAMs are at least dimly aware of him, and a fair number probably watch his TV show.

    2) He’s the type of white guy that non-whites like: outspoken with a tendency towards bombast. And his brashness makes him more trustworthy, as they don’t feel like he’s hiding anything.

    • Replies: @Clyde

    1) He’s a celebrity. Most NAMs are at least dimly aware of him, and a fair number probably watch his TV show.
    2) He’s the type of white guy that non-whites like: outspoken with a tendency towards bombast. And his brashness makes him more trustworthy, as they don’t feel like he’s hiding anything.
     
    Donald Trump is a lock if he can get JZ and Beyonce out on the campaign trail. Out there rapping, dancing and wiggling her assets for him. Kanye West has already pledged his allegiance. Hey, put Taylor Swift to work! She seems conservative.
  27. “I suspect that deep down Obama feels bad about how his Administration has, in effect, agitated blacks to murder each other, all in the name of #BlackLivesMatter.”

    Heather MacDonald has written on several occasions about how when she goes into black neighborhoods and asks the local residents about what bothers them most, invariably the answer is the lack of law enforcement. Maybe Trump should take a cue and do the same: a local neighborhood question and answer (no outside race hustlers allowed) and address their concerns.

    As a commenter observed on another site, talking about law and order is a dog whistle to those who don’t want to be killed.

  28. At this rate, is it plausible that we may see some kind of reversal in the public’s perception of which party is the “cool” party? Last time around we had Obama, who’s got his fair share of charisma even without the MSM marketing juggernaut behind him, versus Romney, a decent and competent man who just couldn’t break out of the box that his opponents put him in. Now we have Trump, a marketing genius, against Hillary, who despite every media effort to the contrary seems inherently uncool–like Leslie Knope, only with more Tracy Flick. But she’s still got the media. It will likely come down to a branding war between the Big T, who’s been impressive so far, versus the MSM, who have time and numbers on their side.

  29. This poll is really, really good news for Trump. If we divide up the undecided voters proportionally between Trump and Clinton, then Trump is leading 53% to 47%. By race it looks like this:

    White: Trump 60%, Clinton 40%
    Black: Clinton 70 %, Trump 30%
    Hispanic: Clinton 62%, Trump 38%
    Asian/Other: Trump 51%, Clinton 49%

    So Trump is doing about as well with whites as McCain or Romney did. Not bad but there’s definitely room for improvement. His 30% support among decided blacks is astonishing, better than any GOP candidate has done in decades, or even generations. Among Hispanics, his 38% support is only two points behind George W Bush’s all-time high in 2004, and much better than either McCain and Romney did. In the Asian and Other category, Trump just edges out Clinton, again, much better than McCain or Romney did.

    By region, and without the undecideds, the results look like this:

    Northeast: Clinton 52%, Trump 48%
    Midwest: Trump 61%, Clinton 39%
    South: Trump 54%, Clinton 46%
    West: Clinton 52%, Trump 48%

    Clinton is doing somewhat better than might be expected in the South, while Trump is doing much better than expected in the Northeast and especially the Midwest. And as Steve pointed out in his Slippery Six article, that’s where presidential elections are won or lost for the Republicans. Right now Trump is on track to win big in Pennsylvania, Ohio, Michigan, Wisconsin, Minnesota and Iowa, and hence–with everything else being equal–the electoral college as a whole.

    • Replies: @Hibernian
    A brash New Yorker may have a bit of a problem in Dixie, and it's a stronghold Republicans rely on.
    , @Ed
    Whether Trumps wins the nomination or not is somewhat irrelevant. He's already showed how the GOP wins, by going populist. The issue is that none of the remaining candidates can afford to do that since they are funded by billionaire plutocrats.

    Notice how few of them have responded to Trump's attack on hedge fund taxes?

    At any rate in a world where blacks are voting for GOP at the tune of 30% is a world where NY & IL become swing states.
  30. The demographics in this new SurveyUSA poll are interesting, although the sample sizes are small.

    They are pretty much the opposite of the conventional wisdom. Relative to traditional Republican candidates, Trump is doing very well among blacks (down only 25-59) and Asians (leading 41-39) and doing reasonably well among Hispanics (down 31-50). Among whites, however, Trump is leading Hillary only 51-34, which might be a little under what would be expected for a Republican up 5 points.

    Trump is winning heavily (54-36) among those who say they pay a lot of attention to politics, and is winning 48-40 among college graduates.

    This evidence supports what I have been saying all along, and it contradicts what MSM have been telling us. I haven’t seen a clearer example of how the powers-that-be are actually a minority with a megaphone.

    On a baseball note, watching these numbers go up, I am having the same feelings I had as a kid when I followed the 1969 Mets as they worked their way to the World Series. That was equally unexpected. (My family had moved from the OC to the NYC the year before, so I had to leave my Dodgers behind. No matter; they were originally a NY team anyway.)
    https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=KSh9XcgVrt0

  31. “Trump has a little under a year and a half to grow into the job.”

    A thoughtful statement. I also liked your analysis about how candidate Trump and President Trump might make the most of his strengths.

    He needs a Condi, that is to say, a tutor who can give him the background he needs.

  32. @Dave Pinsen
    I wonder how much of this is Hillary's popularity melting like a bar of soap as the email mess drags on. This Stephen Miller piece was pretty brutal: http://www.nationalreview.com/article/423544/hillarys-e-mails-reveal-dependence-on-aides

    Hillary is a “yoga-routine addict” ? That will cost her points right there.

    Read more at: http://www.nationalreview.com/article/423544/hillarys-e-mails-reveal-dependence-on-aides

  33. “Americans used to say, ‘Well, it’s a free country.’ They don’t anymore.”

    Another example of Steve noticing things.

    • Replies: @Anonymous
    The last time I heard "It's a free country" or its peer ("free, White, and over 21") was as a senior in college (1980) when a black guy was trying to get me to out with him.
    , @CJ
    ... it's a free country.

    They also used to say, "There oughta be a law." I haven't heard that one for a long time.

  34. @nooffensebut
    I think the real reason that China-Taiwan is stable is because China is busy building its military, and Taiwan can't declare independence without American buy-in, which GW Bush flirted with in April 2001 but corrected in December 2003. As the Chinese military improves and the US grows weary of being the world's policeman, the opportunity ripens for Chinese invasion. If that reignites American interest, we could have a disastrous World War III. Rather than do nothing until that happens, America could accept China as a regional power and pressure Taiwan to negotiate a mutually favorable reunification.

    China will eventually issue an ultimatum to Taiwan – accept Chinese rule with limited autonomy like Hong Kong or be invaded. Taiwan will be absorbed into China. The Chinese care about money more than anything else and a war would just screw all that up.

    • Replies: @Buzz Mohawk

    The Chinese care about money more than anything else...
     
    And we all know where their money comes from...

    I don't hear enough people stating the truth: Everything China has become, all of the threat it presents, every problem it will give us in the future, all of this, was created by trade with the United States.

    We Americans have built and paid for the great Chinese threat that we will face for a long tme. A big, fat, thank-you-very-much goes out to all the bastard leaders who made this happen.

    Do you see why Trump's long, consistent stand against unbalanced foreign trade is so important?

    , @fnn

    The Chinese care about money more than anything else
     
    http://www.slate.com/articles/news_and_politics/foreigners/2015/09/why_drivers_in_china_intentionally_kill_the_pedestrians_they_hit_china_s.single.html

    Why drivers in China intentionally kill the pedestrians they hit.

  35. @Hippopotamusdrome
    OT.
    Vibrant African courtship customs amuse Frenchwoman:

    Girl slapped because she doesn't want to give her phone number

    @InYourSalad
    You made me laugh, fellow countryman=)
    Posted Apr-23-2013 By Skytech (174.30)

    @Argh Funny as heck, thanks for the belly laugh!
    Posted Apr-23-2013 By joelhar (332.70)

     

    The Knockout Game comes to France, courtesy of African refugees, and teenaged girls are fair game! What a sad end to a once great culture.

    • Replies: @Kevin O'Keeffe
    "The Knockout Game comes to France, courtesy of African refugees, and teenaged girls are fair game! What a sad end to a once great culture."

    French culture isn't ending.

    Don't be a defeatist.
  36. Steve’s point about Trump being some kind of emblem for freedom is something that occurred to me recently. Friends of solid conservative credentials object to Trump mostly as a matter of taste: they’re put off by his perceived vulgarity first and foremost, and that overrides everything else.

    My reply has been to note (a) that the other candidates are not obvious models of urbane refinement, and (b) that they’ve been exposed as un-free via contrast with Trump. In their unwillingness to appropriate the immigration issue, they show themselves to be in thrall to their open-borders/cheap-labor donors. The difference between Trump’s freedom–however unedifying it may be–and the thraldom of the GOP field is a factor that should weigh heavily on Trump’s favor.

    I’ll see how persuasive that line turns out to be. In the meantime, I recall that another champion of freedom, a deal maker who saved his country from invasion, was routinely dismissed as a vulgarian. Maybe it’s too over the top to compare Trump to Themistocles, but there it is.

    • Replies: @Dave Pinsen
    For an alleged vulgarian, compare Trump's adult children to Jeb's.
    , @5371
    Themistocles?! You think Trump will end his life in exile having been given a Chinese city to rule))
    , @Anon
    I remember that the Republican elite complained bitterly about how vulgar Ronald Reagan was before he gained the presidency--Reagan come from a lower-class family--but they elected him anyway. In fact, they practically deified him afterwards.
  37. Steve, do you honestly think that Trump will be POTUS in 2016?

  38. @MarkinLA
    China will eventually issue an ultimatum to Taiwan - accept Chinese rule with limited autonomy like Hong Kong or be invaded. Taiwan will be absorbed into China. The Chinese care about money more than anything else and a war would just screw all that up.

    The Chinese care about money more than anything else…

    And we all know where their money comes from…

    I don’t hear enough people stating the truth: Everything China has become, all of the threat it presents, every problem it will give us in the future, all of this, was created by trade with the United States.

    We Americans have built and paid for the great Chinese threat that we will face for a long tme. A big, fat, thank-you-very-much goes out to all the bastard leaders who made this happen.

    Do you see why Trump’s long, consistent stand against unbalanced foreign trade is so important?

    • Agree: tbraton
  39. @Greg Pandatshang
    I like Trump as much as the next guy, but I'm not sure I can vote for somebody who says his favorite foreign policy thinker is John Bolton. John Bolton ... are you kidding me? Talk about "personnel is policy"!

    I just looked it up. It’s true.

    http://www.motherjones.com/politics/2015/08/donald-trump-john-bolton-iraq-war

    In that Meet the Press interview, host Chuck Todd asked Trump to identify his “go-to” experts for national security matters. Trump said he “probably” had two or three. Todd pressed the tycoon for names, and the first one Trump mentioned was John Bolton, the George W. Bush administration’s ambassador to the United Nations. “He’s, you know, a tough cookie, knows what he’s talking about,” Trump said. (He also named retired Col. Jack Jacobs, an MSNBC military analyst.)

    He’s still better than Jeb or Hillary. Just not on foreign policy.

    • Replies: @Milo Minderbinder
    No, Trump is light-years ahead of most other candidates on foreign policy

    http://www.detroitnews.com/story/opinion/2015/09/04/bandow-trump-foreign-policy/71648020/
    , @Harry Baldwin
    Jeb's foreign policy adviser is Paul Wolfowitz. That alone should be enough to render him out of anyone's consideration.
  40. @Peter Meyer

    Trump, who tends to strike hip-hop fans as having the kind of style that they’d want to have if they were a rich old white guy
     
    This is exactly it. Trump surely won't win the black or Hispanic votes outright, but he may do better than a typical Republican simply because:

    1) He's a celebrity. Most NAMs are at least dimly aware of him, and a fair number probably watch his TV show.

    2) He's the type of white guy that non-whites like: outspoken with a tendency towards bombast. And his brashness makes him more trustworthy, as they don't feel like he's hiding anything.

    1) He’s a celebrity. Most NAMs are at least dimly aware of him, and a fair number probably watch his TV show.
    2) He’s the type of white guy that non-whites like: outspoken with a tendency towards bombast. And his brashness makes him more trustworthy, as they don’t feel like he’s hiding anything.

    Donald Trump is a lock if he can get JZ and Beyonce out on the campaign trail. Out there rapping, dancing and wiggling her assets for him. Kanye West has already pledged his allegiance. Hey, put Taylor Swift to work! She seems conservative.

  41. @PistolPete
    https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=GLa9YxV1Xps

    another Trump rap song.

    It would never happen, but imagine Trump won the black vote. Democrats head would EPLODE. Now that would be funny.

    It would never happen, but imagine Trump won the black vote. Democrats head would EPLODE. Now that would be funny.

    He won’t win the black vote, but he doesn’t need to to have dramatic effects on the race. In 2012 Obama won the black vote 93% to 6%; since blacks formed 13% of the electorate (according to the Roper Center), that’s a net vote gain of 11.3 points for the Democrats nationally.

    If Trump draws 25% of the black vote, as the latest poll is giving him, that reduces the Democrats’ net vote from blacks to 6.5 points. That cuts nearly 5 points from Obama’s margin over Romney; instead of a 4 point Obama win, Romney now wins the popular vote by 1.

    Give the Republican 30% of the black vote, and Romney would have won by 2 points.

    Assuming all other groups stay as they were in 2012, a Republican would only need to capture 21% of the black vote to cancel out Obama’s popular vote margin.

    • Replies: @Steve Sailer
    Thanks.

    The most realistic worry for Democrats is less that blacks eventually vote for Trump as that fewer of them vote for Hillary. Obama got quite high black turnout in 2008, then topped even that in 2012. If blacks go back to 2004 levels of voting relative to whites, Hillary is still in trouble.

    , @International Jew
    It's a-ok if he gets some of the black vote, as long as he doesn't get it by promising them anything.
    , @anon
    Here is a little tool that allows for a slightly more nuanced analysis-- incorporates electoral college effect as well as voter turnout/preference by race.

    Also, for reference here is a table of historic turnout by race.

    I think the truly useful analysis is looking at swing states--the only things in play.

    Playing with black voting rates (be it less turnout or more Republican) and everything else ceteris paribus to 2012, Florida flips first, then Virginia, then Ohio. But it takes rather substantial changes to get a flip (not to mention that cubanos in Florida may not respond well to anti-immigration rhetoric, particularly so with renewed relations toward Cuba). Perhaps the warming toward Cuba was another cynical political move by Obama and co.?

    Bumping the white turnout to say, 2008 or 2004 levels, is going to be necessity.
  42. Steve, I hope that

    1. Trump and his aides read these posts,
    2. They consider your insights with care,
    3. They don’t admit nuthin’. iSteve who?

  43. @Anonymous
    Still waiting on the GOP consulting class to get inside Trump's OODA Loop. Any day now it'll happen and this nightmare will be all over and they can get back to the important business of losing national elections

    Still waiting on the GOP consulting class to get inside Trump’s OODA Loop. Any day now it’ll happen and this nightmare will be all over and they can get back to the important business of losing national elections.

    LOL.

    We already know the donor class is planning a barrage of anti-Trump ads prior to the second debate. It will be interesting to see how Trump parries this thrust which he knows is coming.

    Even if Trump goes down he has already killed off Jeb’s chance at the nomination. For that alone we owe him a debt of gratitude.

  44. @jeppo
    This poll is really, really good news for Trump. If we divide up the undecided voters proportionally between Trump and Clinton, then Trump is leading 53% to 47%. By race it looks like this:

    White: Trump 60%, Clinton 40%
    Black: Clinton 70 %, Trump 30%
    Hispanic: Clinton 62%, Trump 38%
    Asian/Other: Trump 51%, Clinton 49%

    So Trump is doing about as well with whites as McCain or Romney did. Not bad but there's definitely room for improvement. His 30% support among decided blacks is astonishing, better than any GOP candidate has done in decades, or even generations. Among Hispanics, his 38% support is only two points behind George W Bush's all-time high in 2004, and much better than either McCain and Romney did. In the Asian and Other category, Trump just edges out Clinton, again, much better than McCain or Romney did.

    By region, and without the undecideds, the results look like this:

    Northeast: Clinton 52%, Trump 48%
    Midwest: Trump 61%, Clinton 39%
    South: Trump 54%, Clinton 46%
    West: Clinton 52%, Trump 48%

    Clinton is doing somewhat better than might be expected in the South, while Trump is doing much better than expected in the Northeast and especially the Midwest. And as Steve pointed out in his Slippery Six article, that's where presidential elections are won or lost for the Republicans. Right now Trump is on track to win big in Pennsylvania, Ohio, Michigan, Wisconsin, Minnesota and Iowa, and hence--with everything else being equal--the electoral college as a whole.

    A brash New Yorker may have a bit of a problem in Dixie, and it’s a stronghold Republicans rely on.

    • Replies: @Honorary Thief
    Nah, not if he's saying stridently saying the things they want to hear.
    , @International Jew
    Methinks, no more than a Massachusetts Mormon would.
    , @Salty
    Trump is slaying it (unsuprisingly) with fraternity brothers in at least 2 huge state schools in the deep south that I know of. Say what you will about greeks, but they are important tastemakers, especially in Dixie.
    , @Peter Meyer
    As a Yankee living in the South, my observation is that Trump breaks along class lines: the middle and upper classes generally don't like him and the working class love him, which come to think of it is probably the case everywhere. There's a bit of "if they nominate him I may just have to vote for Hillary" talk in the air, but it strikes me as empty rhetoric, the conservative version of moving to Canada.
    , @Bugg
    Depends on the opposition. A Socialist Vermont Jew who fled NYC, or the Ol'Hairplugs(D-MBNA)who "borrows" Socialist nonsense from Neil Kinnock are not much competition. And we know even Hillary! today knows she is not getting much Electoral College love in the south.
    , @oh its just me
    Trump has a little scot-irish in him - no not 'scot-irish' as we use it on isteve, but ulster scot - so there might be an undercurrent cultural connection there....
  45. @DCThrowback
    Saw Jon Lovitz a couple of weekends ago in DC. He mostly coasted by on his old stuff for the last 40 minutes of his show, but the first 25 (of a 65 min set) was all about Trump.

    And not all of it was bad, in fact, you could argue Lovitz enjoyed having someone like Trump to contrast to just about anyone. Not to mention he got 25 mins out of it, which is an eternity for a guy just playing out the string like Lovitz (and still getting $30/ticket).

    I think Trump is a godsend for comedians. Not only for the impressions and joke opportunities, but also for the moving of the Overton window on all topics. Especially since the guy heading out the door was impossible to joke about for the first 5 years of his term (and maybe more). A breath of fresh air perhaps. Go Trump.

    Your comment brings to mind a recent interview with Lovitz’s fellow SNL alumnus Norm MacDonald in the Hollywood Reporter: http://thr.cm/xLo4lJ

    MacDonald said once you’re famous, you never bomb, and he unironically compared Trump to Hitler.

  46. @ChrisZ
    Steve's point about Trump being some kind of emblem for freedom is something that occurred to me recently. Friends of solid conservative credentials object to Trump mostly as a matter of taste: they're put off by his perceived vulgarity first and foremost, and that overrides everything else.

    My reply has been to note (a) that the other candidates are not obvious models of urbane refinement, and (b) that they've been exposed as un-free via contrast with Trump. In their unwillingness to appropriate the immigration issue, they show themselves to be in thrall to their open-borders/cheap-labor donors. The difference between Trump's freedom--however unedifying it may be--and the thraldom of the GOP field is a factor that should weigh heavily on Trump's favor.

    I'll see how persuasive that line turns out to be. In the meantime, I recall that another champion of freedom, a deal maker who saved his country from invasion, was routinely dismissed as a vulgarian. Maybe it's too over the top to compare Trump to Themistocles, but there it is.

    For an alleged vulgarian, compare Trump’s adult children to Jeb’s.

    • Agree: Marat
  47. @Kyle a
    In conclusion , trump boasting about being rich, dressing like a million, and banging great looking broads it's going to be enough for him to grab a good segment of the black vote. He needs a couple of more photo ops with the likes of Jay-z to seal the deal. Cause we all know where the blacks get their political views from.

    You’ve nailed it. Trump is a “baller” in black eyes.

  48. @Hibernian
    A brash New Yorker may have a bit of a problem in Dixie, and it's a stronghold Republicans rely on.

    Nah, not if he’s saying stridently saying the things they want to hear.

  49. @Hibernian
    A brash New Yorker may have a bit of a problem in Dixie, and it's a stronghold Republicans rely on.

    Methinks, no more than a Massachusetts Mormon would.

  50. @ChrisZ
    Steve's point about Trump being some kind of emblem for freedom is something that occurred to me recently. Friends of solid conservative credentials object to Trump mostly as a matter of taste: they're put off by his perceived vulgarity first and foremost, and that overrides everything else.

    My reply has been to note (a) that the other candidates are not obvious models of urbane refinement, and (b) that they've been exposed as un-free via contrast with Trump. In their unwillingness to appropriate the immigration issue, they show themselves to be in thrall to their open-borders/cheap-labor donors. The difference between Trump's freedom--however unedifying it may be--and the thraldom of the GOP field is a factor that should weigh heavily on Trump's favor.

    I'll see how persuasive that line turns out to be. In the meantime, I recall that another champion of freedom, a deal maker who saved his country from invasion, was routinely dismissed as a vulgarian. Maybe it's too over the top to compare Trump to Themistocles, but there it is.

    Themistocles?! You think Trump will end his life in exile having been given a Chinese city to rule))

    • Replies: @ChrisZ
    That would make for a fantastic final act, right? And Trump as an exile in China seems so much more plausible than as an exile in Mexico. El Presidente Jeb wouldn't invite him.

    In broader strokes, I was imagining that like Themistocles, Trump might be the leader to do the necessary but unattractive work to save the country. Once done he'll get no thanks from the elites who looked down on him, and in fact they'll find ways to disavow him still. But a victory for freedom and self rule will have been effected, which is the important thing.

    Well, I did say it might be an over-the-top comparison. Thanks for a witty and learned reply.
  51. @Greg Pandatshang
    I like Trump as much as the next guy, but I'm not sure I can vote for somebody who says his favorite foreign policy thinker is John Bolton. John Bolton ... are you kidding me? Talk about "personnel is policy"!

    “I like Trump as much as the next guy, but I’m not sure I can vote for somebody who says his favorite foreign policy thinker is John Bolton. John Bolton … are you kidding me? Talk about “personnel is policy”!”

    Yes, when it comes to foreign policy, Trump hasn’t offered anything different than the establishment concensus – overseas empire and perpetual war.

    • Replies: @Anonymous
    His point about taking the fight directly to ISIS and seizing the oil doesn't seem to be an establishment view, and doesn't seem like that bad an idea.
  52. @jeppo
    This poll is really, really good news for Trump. If we divide up the undecided voters proportionally between Trump and Clinton, then Trump is leading 53% to 47%. By race it looks like this:

    White: Trump 60%, Clinton 40%
    Black: Clinton 70 %, Trump 30%
    Hispanic: Clinton 62%, Trump 38%
    Asian/Other: Trump 51%, Clinton 49%

    So Trump is doing about as well with whites as McCain or Romney did. Not bad but there's definitely room for improvement. His 30% support among decided blacks is astonishing, better than any GOP candidate has done in decades, or even generations. Among Hispanics, his 38% support is only two points behind George W Bush's all-time high in 2004, and much better than either McCain and Romney did. In the Asian and Other category, Trump just edges out Clinton, again, much better than McCain or Romney did.

    By region, and without the undecideds, the results look like this:

    Northeast: Clinton 52%, Trump 48%
    Midwest: Trump 61%, Clinton 39%
    South: Trump 54%, Clinton 46%
    West: Clinton 52%, Trump 48%

    Clinton is doing somewhat better than might be expected in the South, while Trump is doing much better than expected in the Northeast and especially the Midwest. And as Steve pointed out in his Slippery Six article, that's where presidential elections are won or lost for the Republicans. Right now Trump is on track to win big in Pennsylvania, Ohio, Michigan, Wisconsin, Minnesota and Iowa, and hence--with everything else being equal--the electoral college as a whole.

    Whether Trumps wins the nomination or not is somewhat irrelevant. He’s already showed how the GOP wins, by going populist. The issue is that none of the remaining candidates can afford to do that since they are funded by billionaire plutocrats.

    Notice how few of them have responded to Trump’s attack on hedge fund taxes?

    At any rate in a world where blacks are voting for GOP at the tune of 30% is a world where NY & IL become swing states.

  53. I’m not sure how well the demonization with blacks will work.

    I think blacks deep down identify with nativism even more than whites. The whole thing about immigrants closing the door behind them doesn’t apply to blacks. I can’t see many good arguments the left can make on immigration to get blacks on their side

    Trump seems fairly realistic on the social safety net so I don’t see that angle playing either.

  54. @Anonymous
    I'm not a fan of Snowden and agree with Trump. If you're entrusted with secrets by your country and you leak them, even to just the press, you're a traitor and should be shot. And if you're a narcissistic misfit, it's better you find a job that doesn't require loyalty to something greater than your own inchoate understanding of liberty.

    Btw, after Snowden's recent criticism of Russia's crackdown on rights (not gay friendly enough?), Russia ought to ship his ass back to the U.S.

    “I’m not a fan of Snowden and agree with Trump. If you’re entrusted with secrets by your country and you leak them, even to just the press, you’re a traitor and should be shot.”

    Tryanical nonsense. Loyalty to the nation is not the same thing as loyalty to the state. Snowden is loyal to America, and he proved it by being disloyal to his bureaucratic masters, who were illegally spying on………….everyone. What you advocate leads nowhere but to a total police state.

    • Replies: @another commenter
    .

    Snowden is loyal to America
     
    Bullshit. Almost all of the programs exposed by snowden were against legitimate foreign targets, such as the heads of state of france and Germany. If you thought that your phonecalls or emails were not subject to surveillance at any time since the early 90's you're a moron, or never cared about privacy in the first place. None of what Snowden revealed about spying on the general public was substantially new. ECHELON was exposed a long time ago, before the GWOT was ever thought of.

    Snowden has already admitted in an interview with John Oliver that he didn't read the vast majority of the millions of pages that he handed over to foreign journalists that he didn't even know.

    By some coincidence Snowden winds up in Russia, a country with perhaps the worlds best track record of spying on the american government. Also note that of the many press scandals based on the snowden documents, not a single one has exposed anything to do with Russia,one of the prime targets of US intelligence. Another amazing coincidence.



    Put two and two together. Snowden is either a dupe or a traitor.
    , @JohnnyWalker123
    The state has been corrupted to the core and I only wish more Americans were outraged. Snowden's actions took patriotism and courage.
  55. @David In TN
    "Americans used to say, 'Well, it's a free country.' They don't anymore."

    Another example of Steve noticing things.

    The last time I heard “It’s a free country” or its peer (“free, White, and over 21”) was as a senior in college (1980) when a black guy was trying to get me to out with him.

  56. Trump is not himself hugely funny

    He can be pretty amusing when he’s going for the low-hanging fruit.

  57. @MarkinLA
    China will eventually issue an ultimatum to Taiwan - accept Chinese rule with limited autonomy like Hong Kong or be invaded. Taiwan will be absorbed into China. The Chinese care about money more than anything else and a war would just screw all that up.

    The Chinese care about money more than anything else

    http://www.slate.com/articles/news_and_politics/foreigners/2015/09/why_drivers_in_china_intentionally_kill_the_pedestrians_they_hit_china_s.single.html

    Why drivers in China intentionally kill the pedestrians they hit.

  58. Anonymous • Disclaimer says:

    “Did Obama blow up the Arab world with a speech”– uh no, Steve, he did it by backing Morsi against the strongman of the previous 3 decades, Mubarak; he even continued Camp David welfare to the new breed. How “conservative” of Barry, what a “realist!”

    “I suspect Obama feels bad about BLM incitement”– are you auditioning for Anna Quindlen’s old job

  59. @Anonymous
    I'm not a fan of Snowden and agree with Trump. If you're entrusted with secrets by your country and you leak them, even to just the press, you're a traitor and should be shot. And if you're a narcissistic misfit, it's better you find a job that doesn't require loyalty to something greater than your own inchoate understanding of liberty.

    Btw, after Snowden's recent criticism of Russia's crackdown on rights (not gay friendly enough?), Russia ought to ship his ass back to the U.S.

    Yeah, how dare Snowden reveal the unconstitutional crimes of the transnational security state.

    • Replies: @David
    When he used the word narcissistic I figured it must be David Brooks making that comment.

    I'm with you. I can't figure out how it can be illegal to disclose unconstitutional acts taken by our government while retaining constitutional government.

  60. The SurveyUSA poll always shows unrealistically high numbers for Republicans amongst nonwhites, btw. I’d want to see it confirmed by a few more pollsters before definitively saying that he’s doing well with them.

  61. MAYBE THERE IS GOD, AFTER ALL

    This is good news. I hope Trump wins, bans immigration for ever and ever and deports all these aliens.

    If that happens, I will think that maybe there is God, after all.

    • Replies: @Anonymous

    MAYBE THERE IS GOD, AFTER ALL

    This is good news. I hope Trump wins, bans immigration for ever and ever and deports all these aliens.

    If that happens, I will think that maybe there is God, after all.
     
    Agreed. The past decade confirmed that there's a Devil.
    , @Sherman
    Did you know that Trump boasts about his Jewish daughter (she converted)?

    Did you also know that Trump brags that he is the most pro-Israel of all the candidates?

    I'm curious how you reconcile your support for Trump with your vicious anti-Semitism.
  62. Trump has the crucial support of the Indonesians:

  63. When the time comes, I hope Trump picks Sessions as his running mate. The best way for him to avoid getting assassinated is to have an even more stringent immigration restrictionist as his running mate.

  64. “Did, say, Obama blow up the Arab world … by going to Cairo in 2009 and making an ambiguous speech?” Or by bombing Libya? Or by fomenting the war in Syria and arming terrorists there? Or by his masterly actions in Iraq?

  65. @Hibernian
    A brash New Yorker may have a bit of a problem in Dixie, and it's a stronghold Republicans rely on.

    Trump is slaying it (unsuprisingly) with fraternity brothers in at least 2 huge state schools in the deep south that I know of. Say what you will about greeks, but they are important tastemakers, especially in Dixie.

    • Replies: @JohnnyWalker123
    Dixie frat boys get hot girls too.

    https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=WZs7yAFHWCo
  66. China is unlikely to stop at Taiwan, and the brutal kleptocracy and dictator/emperor suppression is likely to generate fear in Japan, South Korea, Vietnam, Malaysia, and Indonesia as well as Australia that they are next.

    There are many more players than America. One thing Obama has done is make America weak and irrelevant.

    • Replies: @iSteveFan

    There are many more players than America. One thing Obama has done is make America weak and irrelevant.
     
    And if America continues its current trajectory into the third world, what difference does it make? Actually if the US is going to be a third world, multicult, Latin-American style nation, I'd rather prefer it to be substantially weaker so as to not spread its poison world-wide.
  67. Peter Meyer [AKA "Peter Fagan"] says:
    @Hibernian
    A brash New Yorker may have a bit of a problem in Dixie, and it's a stronghold Republicans rely on.

    As a Yankee living in the South, my observation is that Trump breaks along class lines: the middle and upper classes generally don’t like him and the working class love him, which come to think of it is probably the case everywhere. There’s a bit of “if they nominate him I may just have to vote for Hillary” talk in the air, but it strikes me as empty rhetoric, the conservative version of moving to Canada.

  68. @Bill B.
    You know how being president or prime minister accelerates aging? (™ Tony Blair.)

    If Hillary gets two terms they'll have to rename the White House The Crypt.

    Trump is actually 17 months older than Hillary. But I’m in the camp that thinks Hillary has already had one stroke and/or is a heavy drinker. A Hillary presidency might be really interesting; we’d probably see America’s first military coup under Hillary.

    Whoever is President in 2016 will likely preside over a major economic recession and I’d hate to see a nativist/citizenist like Tump get tagged with it.

    • Replies: @Peter Meyer

    But I’m in the camp that thinks Hillary has already had one stroke and/or is a heavy drinker.
     
    The drinking bit has been confirmed (did I first read this on iSteve?):

    http://abcnews.go.com/blogs/politics/2015/02/one-thing-that-might-surprise-you-about-hillary-clinton/


    She likes to drink. We were on the campaign trail in 2008 and the press thought she was just taking shots to pander to voters in Pennsylvania. Um, no.
     
    , @Dave Pinsen
    A recession early in a President's first term isn't necessarily deadly. Reagan had a brutal one.

    In fact, although Rahm Emanuel got a lot of heat for his cynical argument about never letting a crisis go to waste, he had a point. You can get a lot done in a crisis that you couldn't get done otherwise. Trump could use a recession to ram through some policies that could pay dividens a few years later.
    , @27 year old
    blah blah military coup

    Yeah, the military that makes its recruits march in girl's shoes because raaaape, kills itself in record numbers, fielded no retribution for fort hood OR chattanooga (other than talking smack on facebook about how god damned tough they are), is going to pull off a coup.

    you'd have better chance of a local paintball team seizing power than the us military.
  69. @PistolPete
    https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=GLa9YxV1Xps

    another Trump rap song.

    It would never happen, but imagine Trump won the black vote. Democrats head would EPLODE. Now that would be funny.

    Trump would be America’s first black president.

    • Agree: slumber_j
  70. @Hibernian
    A brash New Yorker may have a bit of a problem in Dixie, and it's a stronghold Republicans rely on.

    Depends on the opposition. A Socialist Vermont Jew who fled NYC, or the Ol’Hairplugs(D-MBNA)who “borrows” Socialist nonsense from Neil Kinnock are not much competition. And we know even Hillary! today knows she is not getting much Electoral College love in the south.

  71. @Lugash
    Yeah, how dare Snowden reveal the unconstitutional crimes of the transnational security state.

    When he used the word narcissistic I figured it must be David Brooks making that comment.

    I’m with you. I can’t figure out how it can be illegal to disclose unconstitutional acts taken by our government while retaining constitutional government.

    • Replies: @Lugash
    When Snowden first came out, narcissism was the word of the day. Every single talking head on every network used the word. I figure the NSA used it heavily in whatever crap the spoonfed to the media.
  72. @Hibernian
    A brash New Yorker may have a bit of a problem in Dixie, and it's a stronghold Republicans rely on.

    Trump has a little scot-irish in him – no not ‘scot-irish’ as we use it on isteve, but ulster scot – so there might be an undercurrent cultural connection there….

    • Replies: @celt darnell
    Where's the Ulster Scot in Trump?

    His mother was from the Western Isles of Scotland. Nothing Irish or Ulster there.

    From his father's side?
  73. The New York Times to the GOP’s evangelical base: “Your one job is to scuttle Trump!” NYT‘s understanding of Trump is almost as deficient as their notion of the evangelical voting patterns.

  74. Peter Meyer [AKA "Peter Fagan"] says:
    @The Anti-Gnostic
    Trump is actually 17 months older than Hillary. But I'm in the camp that thinks Hillary has already had one stroke and/or is a heavy drinker. A Hillary presidency might be really interesting; we'd probably see America's first military coup under Hillary.

    Whoever is President in 2016 will likely preside over a major economic recession and I'd hate to see a nativist/citizenist like Tump get tagged with it.

    But I’m in the camp that thinks Hillary has already had one stroke and/or is a heavy drinker.

    The drinking bit has been confirmed (did I first read this on iSteve?):

    http://abcnews.go.com/blogs/politics/2015/02/one-thing-that-might-surprise-you-about-hillary-clinton/

    She likes to drink. We were on the campaign trail in 2008 and the press thought she was just taking shots to pander to voters in Pennsylvania. Um, no.

    • Replies: @carol
    Now I'm starting to warm up to her more. You do know Churchill drank a bit, right? Not to compare the two, of course. But can't a gal have a drink?

    @ChrisZ

    ALL the elites loathed Reagan. It was the freaking end of the world when he took office. Wasn't there even a remake of "1984"? which of course was all about right wing Republicans. Like Reagan.

  75. I wouldn’t be at all surprised if the polls underestimate his strength. There’s so much shade being thrown at him some people aren’t going to admit supporting him to pollsters. See the ‘shy tory’ explanations for why the polls got the UK election wrong. I don’t think this applies to all Republicans though. Voting Bush is always respectable (though it shouldn’t be)

  76. Trump is winning heavily (54-36) among those who say they pay a lot of attention to politics, and is winning 48-40 among college graduates.

    So much for the conventional wisdom from the DC chattering classes that Trump only appeals to the lower social strata.

    • Agree: EriK
  77. @Kyle a
    In conclusion , trump boasting about being rich, dressing like a million, and banging great looking broads it's going to be enough for him to grab a good segment of the black vote. He needs a couple of more photo ops with the likes of Jay-z to seal the deal. Cause we all know where the blacks get their political views from.

    ” Cause we all know where the blacks get their political views from.”

    Bill Cosby?

  78. @DCThrowback
    Saw Jon Lovitz a couple of weekends ago in DC. He mostly coasted by on his old stuff for the last 40 minutes of his show, but the first 25 (of a 65 min set) was all about Trump.

    And not all of it was bad, in fact, you could argue Lovitz enjoyed having someone like Trump to contrast to just about anyone. Not to mention he got 25 mins out of it, which is an eternity for a guy just playing out the string like Lovitz (and still getting $30/ticket).

    I think Trump is a godsend for comedians. Not only for the impressions and joke opportunities, but also for the moving of the Overton window on all topics. Especially since the guy heading out the door was impossible to joke about for the first 5 years of his term (and maybe more). A breath of fresh air perhaps. Go Trump.

    It also helps that he is white. These last 7 years have been difficult for comedians. The best thing about making fun of Trump is that you can use him as a surrogate to go after the groups and people you cannot go after directly. “Donald Trump met with Al Sharpton today and look how ridiculous his hair looked. Trump I mean”.

  79. @ChrisZ
    Steve's point about Trump being some kind of emblem for freedom is something that occurred to me recently. Friends of solid conservative credentials object to Trump mostly as a matter of taste: they're put off by his perceived vulgarity first and foremost, and that overrides everything else.

    My reply has been to note (a) that the other candidates are not obvious models of urbane refinement, and (b) that they've been exposed as un-free via contrast with Trump. In their unwillingness to appropriate the immigration issue, they show themselves to be in thrall to their open-borders/cheap-labor donors. The difference between Trump's freedom--however unedifying it may be--and the thraldom of the GOP field is a factor that should weigh heavily on Trump's favor.

    I'll see how persuasive that line turns out to be. In the meantime, I recall that another champion of freedom, a deal maker who saved his country from invasion, was routinely dismissed as a vulgarian. Maybe it's too over the top to compare Trump to Themistocles, but there it is.

    I remember that the Republican elite complained bitterly about how vulgar Ronald Reagan was before he gained the presidency–Reagan come from a lower-class family–but they elected him anyway. In fact, they practically deified him afterwards.

  80. @Whiskey
    China is unlikely to stop at Taiwan, and the brutal kleptocracy and dictator/emperor suppression is likely to generate fear in Japan, South Korea, Vietnam, Malaysia, and Indonesia as well as Australia that they are next.

    There are many more players than America. One thing Obama has done is make America weak and irrelevant.

    There are many more players than America. One thing Obama has done is make America weak and irrelevant.

    And if America continues its current trajectory into the third world, what difference does it make? Actually if the US is going to be a third world, multicult, Latin-American style nation, I’d rather prefer it to be substantially weaker so as to not spread its poison world-wide.

    • Agree: Glossy
  81. O/T

    In Nickelodean multiracial cast, white boy is named Thomas “Kuc.”

    https://concierge.apple.com/events/R032/tbd/6042369140269154823/en_US

  82. @Richard

    It would never happen, but imagine Trump won the black vote. Democrats head would EPLODE. Now that would be funny.
     
    He won't win the black vote, but he doesn't need to to have dramatic effects on the race. In 2012 Obama won the black vote 93% to 6%; since blacks formed 13% of the electorate (according to the Roper Center), that's a net vote gain of 11.3 points for the Democrats nationally.

    If Trump draws 25% of the black vote, as the latest poll is giving him, that reduces the Democrats' net vote from blacks to 6.5 points. That cuts nearly 5 points from Obama's margin over Romney; instead of a 4 point Obama win, Romney now wins the popular vote by 1.

    Give the Republican 30% of the black vote, and Romney would have won by 2 points.

    Assuming all other groups stay as they were in 2012, a Republican would only need to capture 21% of the black vote to cancel out Obama's popular vote margin.

    Thanks.

    The most realistic worry for Democrats is less that blacks eventually vote for Trump as that fewer of them vote for Hillary. Obama got quite high black turnout in 2008, then topped even that in 2012. If blacks go back to 2004 levels of voting relative to whites, Hillary is still in trouble.

  83. @Kyle McKenna

    The Statue of Liberty once stood for an American’s right to say what he felt was true. Now the Statue of Liberty has been repurposed as an icon of how Americans had better shut up about immigration and diversity.
     
    Truer words, never spoken. I tire of pointing out to people that the poem inscribed on the statue's base wasn't actually spoken by the statue, or excerpted from the Constitution. Rather, an obscure Jewish Anarchist scribbled them one day, and the rest? Pseud0-history.

    Americans used to say, “Well, it’s a free country.” They don’t anymore. The Statue of Liberty once stood for an American’s right to say what he felt was true. Now the Statue of Liberty has been repurposed as an icon of how Americans had better shut up about immigration and diversity.

    Part of what we used to call “the American way of life” has been purposely stamped out, but is still in the memory bank of the American character. That is what The Donald harkens back to — American character of old. With his un-PC remarks, he awakens memories lost but familiar.

    In Bolshevik Silicon Valley the disconnect with the past seems almost complete even among the Boomer generation. No one here would be caught dead with a Trump bumper sticker for fear of SJ mob violence. However, those same people do remember what a civilized society was like, and they do want it for their children. These same people are still wallowing in the Narrative because it has become the learned null task — the path of least resistance and safety. They will become emboldened as Trump succeeds among their peers elsewhere and the system deteriorates. Plenty of people are quiet simply because of the imposed tyrannical Dominant Thought. The will is there, it is just incubating.

    • Agree: SecretaryNS
  84. Trump is doing very well among blacks (down only 25-59) and Asians (leading 41-39) and doing reasonably well among Hispanics (down 31-50).

    Definitely be wary of this poll being an outlier here. I only looked at one of the others, the PPP one, but it has Trump getting 13-82 among blacks, 27-65 among Hispanics, and 37-52 among “other.” I expect these numbers are more representative.

    It is plausible that Trump can get more of the black vote than your typical Republican, but as always be wary of reading too much into one poll with small sample sizes, especially when that poll is an outlier.

    • Replies: @Unladen Swallow
    He had very high negatives among Republicans early as well, that reversed, he was getting killed by Hilary early, that has reversed as well. The 27 percent number you cite for Hispanics is exactly what Romney got in the general election in 2012, despite the MSM trying to portray the Donald as poison to Hispanic voters. He is doing exactly as you would expect among poor, big government loving Hispanics, which is what Anne Coulter has argued that would happen if a GOP candidate came out strongly among against illegal immigration. Hispanics aren't voting majority GOP whether they pander to them or not, because Republicans can never get to the left of the Democrats is passing out big govt. goodies to poor people, and that in a nutshell is what Hispanics want.
  85. @Mr Curious
    Trump is "only" leading Hillary 51-39 among Whites. But election stats often lump in Scots-Irish, Middle Easterners and even Indians as Whites. Among real Whites it's much higher. Hillary is the personification of the puritanical, censorious and psuedo-intellectual feminist yenta; she didn't even have to marry her daughter off into them to be the MSM's poster girl.

    Some people still don’t consider Scots-Irish to be white? I thought that went out of fashion a century ago.

    Genetically speaking Scots-Irish and Middle Easterners are naturally classed together with (other) Europeans. Indians are a mixture.

  86. @Peter Meyer

    But I’m in the camp that thinks Hillary has already had one stroke and/or is a heavy drinker.
     
    The drinking bit has been confirmed (did I first read this on iSteve?):

    http://abcnews.go.com/blogs/politics/2015/02/one-thing-that-might-surprise-you-about-hillary-clinton/


    She likes to drink. We were on the campaign trail in 2008 and the press thought she was just taking shots to pander to voters in Pennsylvania. Um, no.
     

    Now I’m starting to warm up to her more. You do know Churchill drank a bit, right? Not to compare the two, of course. But can’t a gal have a drink?

    ALL the elites loathed Reagan. It was the freaking end of the world when he took office. Wasn’t there even a remake of “1984”? which of course was all about right wing Republicans. Like Reagan.

    • Replies: @iSteveFan

    ALL the elites loathed Reagan. It was the freaking end of the world when he took office.
     
    I remember the liberals at that time calling him Ronnie Ray Gun. And I recall some religious nut who told me that Ronald Wilson Reagan had six letters in each of his names, so he thought Reagan would be the anti-Christ.
    , @stillCARealist
    the liberal collective seizure that accompanied Ronald Reagan's election CANNOT be over-stated. The media were all panicking right along with him. He was going to blow up the world and kill anybody who sought an abortion. Remember the coat hangers? "Reagan has blood on his hands" was written all over the place because he wasn't dedicating enough money to combat AIDS.
  87. @5371
    Themistocles?! You think Trump will end his life in exile having been given a Chinese city to rule))

    That would make for a fantastic final act, right? And Trump as an exile in China seems so much more plausible than as an exile in Mexico. El Presidente Jeb wouldn’t invite him.

    In broader strokes, I was imagining that like Themistocles, Trump might be the leader to do the necessary but unattractive work to save the country. Once done he’ll get no thanks from the elites who looked down on him, and in fact they’ll find ways to disavow him still. But a victory for freedom and self rule will have been effected, which is the important thing.

    Well, I did say it might be an over-the-top comparison. Thanks for a witty and learned reply.

  88. There used to be a conventional wisdom that new deal entitlement programs like social security were an untouchable “third rail” of american politics that no politician could touch for fear of the backlash from the masses of people who benefited directly from the programs. Any politician who voted to slash social security would soon be voted out of office.

    Trump’s campaign has exposed the existence of the “fourth rail”, a set of policies that are supported by a solid majority of voters but visciously opposed by economic and media elites. Namely, Immigration Control and Indusrial Policy.

    While the third rail was untouchable Because it drove away the voters, the fourth rail drives away the donor class, and so it can only be grasped by someone of wholly independant means. Thus, trump has staked out territory that no other candidate can enter. The media and establishment will eventually realize that they can’t win on Trump’s turf. I expect that future interviews and debates will attempt to avoid these issues.

  89. @Hippopotamusdrome
    OT.
    Vibrant African courtship customs amuse Frenchwoman:

    Girl slapped because she doesn't want to give her phone number

    @InYourSalad
    You made me laugh, fellow countryman=)
    Posted Apr-23-2013 By Skytech (174.30)

    @Argh Funny as heck, thanks for the belly laugh!
    Posted Apr-23-2013 By joelhar (332.70)

     

    Where is there an “amused Frenchwoman” or any other truly French person showing anything but anger and disdain at this behavior? The person laughing hysterically is African, or Afro-French.

    Of the comments you quote, I’m pretty sure “fellow countryman” refers to an African nationality, not French, unless it’s meant ironically.

    The “funny as heck” comment is not in response to the video, it’s an approving response to a comment that the perpetrator ought to be shot.

    I have no idea if this video received any distribution outside fringe sites like liveleak, but I’m pretty sure that ordinary French people would be outraged, not amused, by it. The video is a cautionary tale about letting people from less civilized cultures into your country; by itself, it’s not a sign of the decline of French civilization because these guys are not a part of that civilization.

  90. @Richard

    It would never happen, but imagine Trump won the black vote. Democrats head would EPLODE. Now that would be funny.
     
    He won't win the black vote, but he doesn't need to to have dramatic effects on the race. In 2012 Obama won the black vote 93% to 6%; since blacks formed 13% of the electorate (according to the Roper Center), that's a net vote gain of 11.3 points for the Democrats nationally.

    If Trump draws 25% of the black vote, as the latest poll is giving him, that reduces the Democrats' net vote from blacks to 6.5 points. That cuts nearly 5 points from Obama's margin over Romney; instead of a 4 point Obama win, Romney now wins the popular vote by 1.

    Give the Republican 30% of the black vote, and Romney would have won by 2 points.

    Assuming all other groups stay as they were in 2012, a Republican would only need to capture 21% of the black vote to cancel out Obama's popular vote margin.

    It’s a-ok if he gets some of the black vote, as long as he doesn’t get it by promising them anything.

  91. @carol
    Now I'm starting to warm up to her more. You do know Churchill drank a bit, right? Not to compare the two, of course. But can't a gal have a drink?

    @ChrisZ

    ALL the elites loathed Reagan. It was the freaking end of the world when he took office. Wasn't there even a remake of "1984"? which of course was all about right wing Republicans. Like Reagan.

    ALL the elites loathed Reagan. It was the freaking end of the world when he took office.

    I remember the liberals at that time calling him Ronnie Ray Gun. And I recall some religious nut who told me that Ronald Wilson Reagan had six letters in each of his names, so he thought Reagan would be the anti-Christ.

    • Replies: @Anonymous

    I remember the liberals at that time calling him Ronnie Ray Gun.
     
    One of the few things I recall from 1984, my gay liberal literature teacher at my prep school coming in the day after the election and telling all of us students we'll all be sent off to war because our fascist parents voted Reagan back in.
    , @rob

    I remember the liberals at that time calling him Ronnie Ray Gun. And I recall some religious nut who told me that Ronald Wilson Reagan had six letters in each of his names, so he thought Reagan would be the anti-Christ.
     
    If you rearrange the letters in 'Ronald Wilson Reagan' you get 'Insane Anglo Warlord. George Herbert Walker Bush anagrams into 'Huge Berserk Rebel Warthog.'
  92. Trump is killing it with the working class whites in the Pac. NW. Especially the young ones. He’s got great appeal to millennials. Older blue collar whites seem more skeptical, but they are so pissed off about illegal immigration that he’s probably got their vote, too.

    I think it’s even plausible that he could win a western blue state like Oregon or maybe even Washington. I’ve long seen the Germanic Midwest as politically underrepresented compared to the Anglo South and NE, and the West is in many ways more like the Midwest than the East Coast. In Washington, the Democrats win not because of the demographics (Washington state’s largest ethnic group is German American, like Trump, whose grandfather immigrated from Germany to Seattle) but because of economic issues. Tons of people work in blue collar industries or for the government. It’s similar to the upper Midwest that way.

    Finally these kinds of people may be the key to the presidency, and have some say on the national stage.

  93. @Jack Strocchi
    StevSail said:


    Trump is not himself hugely funny (except in a meta sense, in which he’s hilarious),
     


    I beg to differ. Trump has sent some zingers down range since the campaign began, my favourite being: "Hedi Klum, sadly no longer a 10".

    He is able to think on his feet. And he enjoys putting other people down. Both of which are pre-requisites for comics.

    I beg to differ. Trump has sent some zingers down range since the campaign began, my favourite being: “Hedi Klum, sadly no longer a 10″.
    He is able to think on his feet. And he enjoys putting other people down. Both of which are pre-requisites for comics.

    I would like to get Don Rickles and Jackie Mason’s opinions on Donald Trump’s shtick / performance art.

  94. @Tom_R
    MAYBE THERE IS GOD, AFTER ALL

    This is good news. I hope Trump wins, bans immigration for ever and ever and deports all these aliens.

    If that happens, I will think that maybe there is God, after all.

    MAYBE THERE IS GOD, AFTER ALL

    This is good news. I hope Trump wins, bans immigration for ever and ever and deports all these aliens.

    If that happens, I will think that maybe there is God, after all.

    Agreed. The past decade confirmed that there’s a Devil.

  95. Anonymous • Disclaimer says:
    @iSteveFan

    ALL the elites loathed Reagan. It was the freaking end of the world when he took office.
     
    I remember the liberals at that time calling him Ronnie Ray Gun. And I recall some religious nut who told me that Ronald Wilson Reagan had six letters in each of his names, so he thought Reagan would be the anti-Christ.

    I remember the liberals at that time calling him Ronnie Ray Gun.

    One of the few things I recall from 1984, my gay liberal literature teacher at my prep school coming in the day after the election and telling all of us students we’ll all be sent off to war because our fascist parents voted Reagan back in.

    • Replies: @slumber_j
    I remember the opposite too, in 1976. I was eleven years old and dutifully sitting "Indian-style," as used to be said, along the sideline in my public-elementary-school gymnasium the day after the general election in a then-reliably Republican Chicago suburb. Our gym teacher, the incredibly, amazingly improbably-named Buff Toneman burst in, gleefully passing out red rubber orbs for a game of "Polish Dodgeball," gloating about Jimmy Carter's victory in the face of our parents' opposition.

    Buff Toneman was a really nice guy, by the way. And I guess, great gym teacher that he was, that he really liked to win.

  96. Expect to see a concerted effort to demonize Trump among blacks.

    In this poll, Trump has 25% of blacks, you say he could get 30%. I think that’s being way too optimistic. He could get 15%, and that would be exospheric for a Republican Presidential candidate among black voters.

    But there’s another side to the equation.

    Black turnout.

    If blacks don’t fear or hate Trump, and they aren’t jazzed by whoever the Democrat nominee is, then they’ll stay home. A black voter who voted for Obama in 2012 but stays home for the Trump vs (Generic white Democrat) contest in 2016 is in essence casting a half a vote for Trump.

    • Replies: @Kevin O'Keeffe
    "In this poll, Trump has 25% of blacks, you say he could get 30%. I think that’s being way too optimistic. He could get 15%, and that would be exospheric for a Republican Presidential candidate among black voters."

    Actually, 15 percent is pretty darn close to what a GOP nominee customarily receives, when the Democratic nominee is a White man. The last two elections were simply anomalous.
  97. @nooffensebut
    I think the real reason that China-Taiwan is stable is because China is busy building its military, and Taiwan can't declare independence without American buy-in, which GW Bush flirted with in April 2001 but corrected in December 2003. As the Chinese military improves and the US grows weary of being the world's policeman, the opportunity ripens for Chinese invasion. If that reignites American interest, we could have a disastrous World War III. Rather than do nothing until that happens, America could accept China as a regional power and pressure Taiwan to negotiate a mutually favorable reunification.

    >> America could accept China as a regional power

    Apparently you never read the transcribed speeches of USCINCPAC.

    >>> and pressure Taiwan to negotiate a mutually favorable reunification.

    Economically, there is essentially no border. Taiwanese businessmen have a better visa/banking/regulations regime going for them in PRC, than a Canadian businessman does in the USA. It takes a Singaporean to give the Taiwanese a run for their money in PRC. Americans are not in the running.

  98. @Glossy
    I just looked it up. It's true.

    http://www.motherjones.com/politics/2015/08/donald-trump-john-bolton-iraq-war

    In that Meet the Press interview, host Chuck Todd asked Trump to identify his "go-to" experts for national security matters. Trump said he "probably" had two or three. Todd pressed the tycoon for names, and the first one Trump mentioned was John Bolton, the George W. Bush administration's ambassador to the United Nations. "He's, you know, a tough cookie, knows what he's talking about," Trump said. (He also named retired Col. Jack Jacobs, an MSNBC military analyst.)

    He's still better than Jeb or Hillary. Just not on foreign policy.

    No, Trump is light-years ahead of most other candidates on foreign policy

    http://www.detroitnews.com/story/opinion/2015/09/04/bandow-trump-foreign-policy/71648020/

  99. anon • Disclaimer says:
    @Richard

    It would never happen, but imagine Trump won the black vote. Democrats head would EPLODE. Now that would be funny.
     
    He won't win the black vote, but he doesn't need to to have dramatic effects on the race. In 2012 Obama won the black vote 93% to 6%; since blacks formed 13% of the electorate (according to the Roper Center), that's a net vote gain of 11.3 points for the Democrats nationally.

    If Trump draws 25% of the black vote, as the latest poll is giving him, that reduces the Democrats' net vote from blacks to 6.5 points. That cuts nearly 5 points from Obama's margin over Romney; instead of a 4 point Obama win, Romney now wins the popular vote by 1.

    Give the Republican 30% of the black vote, and Romney would have won by 2 points.

    Assuming all other groups stay as they were in 2012, a Republican would only need to capture 21% of the black vote to cancel out Obama's popular vote margin.

    Here is a little tool that allows for a slightly more nuanced analysis– incorporates electoral college effect as well as voter turnout/preference by race.

    Also, for reference here is a table of historic turnout by race.

    I think the truly useful analysis is looking at swing states–the only things in play.

    Playing with black voting rates (be it less turnout or more Republican) and everything else ceteris paribus to 2012, Florida flips first, then Virginia, then Ohio. But it takes rather substantial changes to get a flip (not to mention that cubanos in Florida may not respond well to anti-immigration rhetoric, particularly so with renewed relations toward Cuba). Perhaps the warming toward Cuba was another cynical political move by Obama and co.?

    Bumping the white turnout to say, 2008 or 2004 levels, is going to be necessity.

  100. @Mr. Anon
    "I’m not a fan of Snowden and agree with Trump. If you’re entrusted with secrets by your country and you leak them, even to just the press, you’re a traitor and should be shot."

    Tryanical nonsense. Loyalty to the nation is not the same thing as loyalty to the state. Snowden is loyal to America, and he proved it by being disloyal to his bureaucratic masters, who were illegally spying on.............everyone. What you advocate leads nowhere but to a total police state.

    .

    Snowden is loyal to America

    Bullshit. Almost all of the programs exposed by snowden were against legitimate foreign targets, such as the heads of state of france and Germany. If you thought that your phonecalls or emails were not subject to surveillance at any time since the early 90’s you’re a moron, or never cared about privacy in the first place. None of what Snowden revealed about spying on the general public was substantially new. ECHELON was exposed a long time ago, before the GWOT was ever thought of.

    Snowden has already admitted in an interview with John Oliver that he didn’t read the vast majority of the millions of pages that he handed over to foreign journalists that he didn’t even know.

    By some coincidence Snowden winds up in Russia, a country with perhaps the worlds best track record of spying on the american government. Also note that of the many press scandals based on the snowden documents, not a single one has exposed anything to do with Russia,one of the prime targets of US intelligence. Another amazing coincidence.

    Put two and two together. Snowden is either a dupe or a traitor.

    • Replies: @Anonymous
    Put two and two together. Snowden is either a dupe or a traitor.

    Snowden is a patriot who understood what was going on and sacrificed his life for his people.
  101. @carol
    Now I'm starting to warm up to her more. You do know Churchill drank a bit, right? Not to compare the two, of course. But can't a gal have a drink?

    @ChrisZ

    ALL the elites loathed Reagan. It was the freaking end of the world when he took office. Wasn't there even a remake of "1984"? which of course was all about right wing Republicans. Like Reagan.

    the liberal collective seizure that accompanied Ronald Reagan’s election CANNOT be over-stated. The media were all panicking right along with him. He was going to blow up the world and kill anybody who sought an abortion. Remember the coat hangers? “Reagan has blood on his hands” was written all over the place because he wasn’t dedicating enough money to combat AIDS.

    • Replies: @SPMoore8
    I remember when KAL 007 went down, I was in graduate school. People were bursting into tears left and right, and not because of the plane, but because they were sure Reagan would begin a nuclear exchange .....
    , @Honorary Thief
    It would be great to witness that sort of thing again.
    , @Reg Cæsar

    “Reagan has blood on his hands” was written all over the place because he wasn’t dedicating enough money to combat AIDS.
     
    What people do in the privacy of their own public bathhouses and opium dens is not the business of the government. And, by extension (pardon the expression), neither are the results of what those people do.

    Reagan realized this, and should get credit, not blame. Actually, he spent too much time and energy on AIDS, not too little.
  102. If you think Trump should be careful running his big mouth on foreign policy, then perhaps his “incompetence” as displayed on the Hugh Hewitt Show about who Ramzi Yamzi al-Whoopsie Daisy is, should be thought of more as a feature than a bug.

  103. @stillCARealist
    the liberal collective seizure that accompanied Ronald Reagan's election CANNOT be over-stated. The media were all panicking right along with him. He was going to blow up the world and kill anybody who sought an abortion. Remember the coat hangers? "Reagan has blood on his hands" was written all over the place because he wasn't dedicating enough money to combat AIDS.

    I remember when KAL 007 went down, I was in graduate school. People were bursting into tears left and right, and not because of the plane, but because they were sure Reagan would begin a nuclear exchange …..

  104. @another commenter
    .

    Snowden is loyal to America
     
    Bullshit. Almost all of the programs exposed by snowden were against legitimate foreign targets, such as the heads of state of france and Germany. If you thought that your phonecalls or emails were not subject to surveillance at any time since the early 90's you're a moron, or never cared about privacy in the first place. None of what Snowden revealed about spying on the general public was substantially new. ECHELON was exposed a long time ago, before the GWOT was ever thought of.

    Snowden has already admitted in an interview with John Oliver that he didn't read the vast majority of the millions of pages that he handed over to foreign journalists that he didn't even know.

    By some coincidence Snowden winds up in Russia, a country with perhaps the worlds best track record of spying on the american government. Also note that of the many press scandals based on the snowden documents, not a single one has exposed anything to do with Russia,one of the prime targets of US intelligence. Another amazing coincidence.



    Put two and two together. Snowden is either a dupe or a traitor.

    Put two and two together. Snowden is either a dupe or a traitor.

    Snowden is a patriot who understood what was going on and sacrificed his life for his people.

    • Replies: @another commenter

    sacrificed his life for his people.
     
    Huh. Just like Kim Philby and Phillip Agee sacrificed their lives for their people. Amazing courage these guys show living out their lives peacefully under the watchful eyes of the KGB. True American heroes in every sense of the word. Make room on mount rushmore.

    Look don' t get me wrong, Snowden definitely brought a lot of issues to the fore, but in terms of US surveillance of americans, he "exposed" things that had been public knowledge for decades.

    To pretend that his motives were wholesome and well founded is ludicrous in light of what his leaks revealed and where he ran. The only rational explanations of what he did are not flattering. He is either a knowing agent of Russia, or an incredibly naive pawn.

  105. @stillCARealist
    the liberal collective seizure that accompanied Ronald Reagan's election CANNOT be over-stated. The media were all panicking right along with him. He was going to blow up the world and kill anybody who sought an abortion. Remember the coat hangers? "Reagan has blood on his hands" was written all over the place because he wasn't dedicating enough money to combat AIDS.

    It would be great to witness that sort of thing again.

  106. @Anonymous

    I remember the liberals at that time calling him Ronnie Ray Gun.
     
    One of the few things I recall from 1984, my gay liberal literature teacher at my prep school coming in the day after the election and telling all of us students we'll all be sent off to war because our fascist parents voted Reagan back in.

    I remember the opposite too, in 1976. I was eleven years old and dutifully sitting “Indian-style,” as used to be said, along the sideline in my public-elementary-school gymnasium the day after the general election in a then-reliably Republican Chicago suburb. Our gym teacher, the incredibly, amazingly improbably-named Buff Toneman burst in, gleefully passing out red rubber orbs for a game of “Polish Dodgeball,” gloating about Jimmy Carter’s victory in the face of our parents’ opposition.

    Buff Toneman was a really nice guy, by the way. And I guess, great gym teacher that he was, that he really liked to win.

  107. @Anonymous
    Put two and two together. Snowden is either a dupe or a traitor.

    Snowden is a patriot who understood what was going on and sacrificed his life for his people.

    sacrificed his life for his people.

    Huh. Just like Kim Philby and Phillip Agee sacrificed their lives for their people. Amazing courage these guys show living out their lives peacefully under the watchful eyes of the KGB. True American heroes in every sense of the word. Make room on mount rushmore.

    Look don’ t get me wrong, Snowden definitely brought a lot of issues to the fore, but in terms of US surveillance of americans, he “exposed” things that had been public knowledge for decades.

    To pretend that his motives were wholesome and well founded is ludicrous in light of what his leaks revealed and where he ran. The only rational explanations of what he did are not flattering. He is either a knowing agent of Russia, or an incredibly naive pawn.

    • Replies: @Divine Right
    "To pretend that his motives were wholesome and well founded is ludicrous in light of what his leaks revealed and where he ran."

    He didn't go to Russia first. He tried to go elsewhere, but Russia was the only country that would take him. That, in itself, cannot be used as prima facie evidence that he is a Russian spy; the fact that he attempted to go elsewhere first and only settled on Russia makes me discount the Russian spy angle. To my knowledge, no evidence has surfaced to suggest he was a spy for any country. Most of what I have seen suggests he was motivated by ideology.

    "None of what Snowden revealed about spying on the general public was substantially new. ECHELON was exposed a long time ago, before the GWOT was ever thought of."

    The Snowden leaks revealed not only disturbing surveillance programs that were unknown at the time (such as hacking Yahoo! Chat and setting the program to take indiscriminate screen shots of all users - some of whom were naked - and storing the data in the UK in order to skirt US law), but they also revealed that the government had lied to congress about their extent: James Clapper lied under oath in order to mislead congress into thinking that only a few hundred or thousand people were affected by some of these programs.

    https://www.techdirt.com/articles/20150508/18041530944/latest-explanation-james-clapper-lying-about-essential-nsa-spy-program-he-forgot-about-it.shtml

    "the programs exposed by snowden were against legitimate foreign targets, such as the heads of state of france and Germany."

    Perhaps, but I'll take that being exposed in exchange for what we've learned.

    , @MarkinLA
    What were his options? Be run though a kangaroo court and put in a dungeon for the rest of his life or find a place where he could stay. He wanted to be a normal citizen in another country but the US government was consistently planning to hijack any plane he was on and force it to land in a stooge country of the US or the US itself.

    For all the crying about what he has exposed, what is the real damage that was so important to do and keep secret?
    , @Biff
    How would anyone know what kind of money and effort Washington is putting into Regime change in Syria? You wouldn’t if it weren’t for Snowden:

    At $1 billion, Syria-related operations account for about $1 of every $15 in the CIA’s overall budget, judging by spending levels revealed in documents the Washington Post obtained from former US intelligence contractor Edward Snowden.
    US officials said the CIA has trained and equipped nearly 10,000 fighters sent into Syria over the past several years — meaning that the agency is spending roughly $100,000 per year for every anti-Assad rebel who has gone through the program.
     
    , @Brutusale
    Your opinion of Snowden depends on whether you're a cynical bastard, like me, who believes no one, American or other, has been safe from the Surveillance State since Echelon came to light, or a poor, deluded fool still hanging your hat on Truth, Justice and the American Way.

    I'm willing to live with my cynicism as long as the Surveillance State keeps up its end of the bargain and keeps me and mine safe. If they don't, and it seems we're just about ripe for the next big hit, then screw it, let a thousand Snowdens bloom!

  108. Who’s the gal with Trump in the pic?

    • Replies: @Leftist conservative
    that lady beside trump is our future first lady...and there are some 'naughty' pics of her out there...
  109. @oh its just me
    Trump has a little scot-irish in him - no not 'scot-irish' as we use it on isteve, but ulster scot - so there might be an undercurrent cultural connection there....

    Where’s the Ulster Scot in Trump?

    His mother was from the Western Isles of Scotland. Nothing Irish or Ulster there.

    From his father’s side?

  110. @Mr. Anon
    "I like Trump as much as the next guy, but I’m not sure I can vote for somebody who says his favorite foreign policy thinker is John Bolton. John Bolton … are you kidding me? Talk about “personnel is policy”!"

    Yes, when it comes to foreign policy, Trump hasn't offered anything different than the establishment concensus - overseas empire and perpetual war.

    His point about taking the fight directly to ISIS and seizing the oil doesn’t seem to be an establishment view, and doesn’t seem like that bad an idea.

  111. Anonymous • Disclaimer says:
    @Greg Pandatshang
    I like Trump as much as the next guy, but I'm not sure I can vote for somebody who says his favorite foreign policy thinker is John Bolton. John Bolton ... are you kidding me? Talk about "personnel is policy"!

    I saw the interview. I think he just said Bolton because that’s just who came to mind and he was winging it. He also mentioned that he gets his foreign policy knowledge from “watching the shows”. I don’t think he had carefully thought out and crafted foreign policy answers and just winged it.

    I don’t think Trump is very ideological but is primarily personality driven. Bolton is very aggressive and argumentative on TV, much more than your ordinary pundit, and that’s probably why he made a positive impression on Trump, rather than anything ideological.

  112. @stillCARealist
    the liberal collective seizure that accompanied Ronald Reagan's election CANNOT be over-stated. The media were all panicking right along with him. He was going to blow up the world and kill anybody who sought an abortion. Remember the coat hangers? "Reagan has blood on his hands" was written all over the place because he wasn't dedicating enough money to combat AIDS.

    “Reagan has blood on his hands” was written all over the place because he wasn’t dedicating enough money to combat AIDS.

    What people do in the privacy of their own public bathhouses and opium dens is not the business of the government. And, by extension (pardon the expression), neither are the results of what those people do.

    Reagan realized this, and should get credit, not blame. Actually, he spent too much time and energy on AIDS, not too little.

    • Replies: @Biff
    Public health is a governmental issue. If the plague was running rampant would you insist the government do nothing?
  113. @David In TN
    "Americans used to say, 'Well, it's a free country.' They don't anymore."

    Another example of Steve noticing things.

    … it’s a free country.

    They also used to say, “There oughta be a law.” I haven’t heard that one for a long time.

    • Replies: @Reg Cæsar
    They also used to say "Get a job!"

    I haven't heard that in decades. It's pointless-- José's already taken that job.
    , @Hibernian
    We no longer say “There oughta be a law” because we don't want to give the Masters of the Leviathan State any ideas.
  114. @CJ
    ... it's a free country.

    They also used to say, "There oughta be a law." I haven't heard that one for a long time.

    They also used to say “Get a job!”

    I haven’t heard that in decades. It’s pointless– José’s already taken that job.

  115. @CK
    You might want to recheck the definition of the word "about".
    The song is about: kilo's in his trunk and women in red in his crib.

    A song can be about several individuals.

    He invokes frequent comparisons to Trump in the song.

  116. @Mr. Anon
    "I’m not a fan of Snowden and agree with Trump. If you’re entrusted with secrets by your country and you leak them, even to just the press, you’re a traitor and should be shot."

    Tryanical nonsense. Loyalty to the nation is not the same thing as loyalty to the state. Snowden is loyal to America, and he proved it by being disloyal to his bureaucratic masters, who were illegally spying on.............everyone. What you advocate leads nowhere but to a total police state.

    The state has been corrupted to the core and I only wish more Americans were outraged. Snowden’s actions took patriotism and courage.

  117. @The Anti-Gnostic
    Trump is actually 17 months older than Hillary. But I'm in the camp that thinks Hillary has already had one stroke and/or is a heavy drinker. A Hillary presidency might be really interesting; we'd probably see America's first military coup under Hillary.

    Whoever is President in 2016 will likely preside over a major economic recession and I'd hate to see a nativist/citizenist like Tump get tagged with it.

    A recession early in a President’s first term isn’t necessarily deadly. Reagan had a brutal one.

    In fact, although Rahm Emanuel got a lot of heat for his cynical argument about never letting a crisis go to waste, he had a point. You can get a lot done in a crisis that you couldn’t get done otherwise. Trump could use a recession to ram through some policies that could pay dividens a few years later.

  118. @Salty
    Trump is slaying it (unsuprisingly) with fraternity brothers in at least 2 huge state schools in the deep south that I know of. Say what you will about greeks, but they are important tastemakers, especially in Dixie.

    Dixie frat boys get hot girls too.

  119. @Bill B.
    You know how being president or prime minister accelerates aging? (™ Tony Blair.)

    If Hillary gets two terms they'll have to rename the White House The Crypt.

    Researchers have simulated what Hillary Clinton will look like by the end of her term, given her current aging rate.

  120. @Justpassingby
    Who's the gal with Trump in the pic?

    that lady beside trump is our future first lady…and there are some ‘naughty’ pics of her out there…

  121. @another commenter

    sacrificed his life for his people.
     
    Huh. Just like Kim Philby and Phillip Agee sacrificed their lives for their people. Amazing courage these guys show living out their lives peacefully under the watchful eyes of the KGB. True American heroes in every sense of the word. Make room on mount rushmore.

    Look don' t get me wrong, Snowden definitely brought a lot of issues to the fore, but in terms of US surveillance of americans, he "exposed" things that had been public knowledge for decades.

    To pretend that his motives were wholesome and well founded is ludicrous in light of what his leaks revealed and where he ran. The only rational explanations of what he did are not flattering. He is either a knowing agent of Russia, or an incredibly naive pawn.

    “To pretend that his motives were wholesome and well founded is ludicrous in light of what his leaks revealed and where he ran.”

    He didn’t go to Russia first. He tried to go elsewhere, but Russia was the only country that would take him. That, in itself, cannot be used as prima facie evidence that he is a Russian spy; the fact that he attempted to go elsewhere first and only settled on Russia makes me discount the Russian spy angle. To my knowledge, no evidence has surfaced to suggest he was a spy for any country. Most of what I have seen suggests he was motivated by ideology.

    “None of what Snowden revealed about spying on the general public was substantially new. ECHELON was exposed a long time ago, before the GWOT was ever thought of.”

    The Snowden leaks revealed not only disturbing surveillance programs that were unknown at the time (such as hacking Yahoo! Chat and setting the program to take indiscriminate screen shots of all users – some of whom were naked – and storing the data in the UK in order to skirt US law), but they also revealed that the government had lied to congress about their extent: James Clapper lied under oath in order to mislead congress into thinking that only a few hundred or thousand people were affected by some of these programs.

    https://www.techdirt.com/articles/20150508/18041530944/latest-explanation-james-clapper-lying-about-essential-nsa-spy-program-he-forgot-about-it.shtml

    “the programs exposed by snowden were against legitimate foreign targets, such as the heads of state of france and Germany.”

    Perhaps, but I’ll take that being exposed in exchange for what we’ve learned.

  122. I find Trump totally unconvincing on Snowden issue. Of course, he knows what he must say to stay in the race and he does. But if he wins presidency (extremely hard to believe this possible) he would remain totally neutral on Snowden.

    • Replies: @jon

    I find Trump totally unconvincing on Snowden issue. Of course, he knows what he must say to stay in the race and he does.
     
    Agreed. Snowden just isn't that important of an issue, so he says what he thinks the largest junk of Republicans want to hear when directly asked, but then otherwise ignores it.
  123. As a non American, Trump for me is the stereotypical larger than life American, which now there are very few of in America. The same applies to those blacks that glorify the pimp life and those rap videos with lots of gold jewelary and loose women, and I know a lot of white Americans would disagree that they represent a stereotypical American, but for me they do.

    As for Snowden, I do think he is a hero, a hero in the sense that he took on this gigantic faceless system as one man, ruining his life but gaining respect from all those that still think old fashioned one man heroics should exist in our gargantuan global machine.

    • Replies: @Art
    "As a non American, Trump for me is the stereotypical larger than life American, which now there are very few of in America."

    I agree – Trump is 100% American – he is a throwback to the early 20th century - he is an optimistic can do person. Could any of the others do what he possibly could do – never.

    The thing that scares me is his closeness to the Jews. If he puts a bunch of “smart” Jews in charge – things would go very wrong.

    I do believe that if he as president had a choice to make between America and Israel, that he would chose America.
  124. @The Anti-Gnostic
    Trump is actually 17 months older than Hillary. But I'm in the camp that thinks Hillary has already had one stroke and/or is a heavy drinker. A Hillary presidency might be really interesting; we'd probably see America's first military coup under Hillary.

    Whoever is President in 2016 will likely preside over a major economic recession and I'd hate to see a nativist/citizenist like Tump get tagged with it.

    blah blah military coup

    Yeah, the military that makes its recruits march in girl’s shoes because raaaape, kills itself in record numbers, fielded no retribution for fort hood OR chattanooga (other than talking smack on facebook about how god damned tough they are), is going to pull off a coup.

    you’d have better chance of a local paintball team seizing power than the us military.

    • Replies: @Jason Roberts
    Ain't that the truth. With the lightning speed the Pentagon moved to open the services to the transgendered, I wondered if the brass was creating a plan to demoralize the rank and file from carrying out a coup. If they move towards fat acceptance and away from fat shaming, then we'll know for sure.
  125. @Dave Pinsen
    I wonder how much of this is Hillary's popularity melting like a bar of soap as the email mess drags on. This Stephen Miller piece was pretty brutal: http://www.nationalreview.com/article/423544/hillarys-e-mails-reveal-dependence-on-aides

    perhaps it was her allegiance to Monsanto (GMO specifically, which made her intolerable to the left-leaning populace of all ages

  126. @Tom_R
    MAYBE THERE IS GOD, AFTER ALL

    This is good news. I hope Trump wins, bans immigration for ever and ever and deports all these aliens.

    If that happens, I will think that maybe there is God, after all.

    Did you know that Trump boasts about his Jewish daughter (she converted)?

    Did you also know that Trump brags that he is the most pro-Israel of all the candidates?

    I’m curious how you reconcile your support for Trump with your vicious anti-Semitism.

  127. Trump knows that the interests of CEO’s of international corporations are not the interests of the American people and he says so. The other candidates know this also (unless they are imbeciles) but they dare not say it because they are owned by said corporate entities. That Trump even acknowledges the importance of our collective livelihoods sets him apart among Republicans. The Democrats of course have Bernie Sanders. It will be interesting to see how Trump polls against Sanders.

  128. @another commenter

    sacrificed his life for his people.
     
    Huh. Just like Kim Philby and Phillip Agee sacrificed their lives for their people. Amazing courage these guys show living out their lives peacefully under the watchful eyes of the KGB. True American heroes in every sense of the word. Make room on mount rushmore.

    Look don' t get me wrong, Snowden definitely brought a lot of issues to the fore, but in terms of US surveillance of americans, he "exposed" things that had been public knowledge for decades.

    To pretend that his motives were wholesome and well founded is ludicrous in light of what his leaks revealed and where he ran. The only rational explanations of what he did are not flattering. He is either a knowing agent of Russia, or an incredibly naive pawn.

    What were his options? Be run though a kangaroo court and put in a dungeon for the rest of his life or find a place where he could stay. He wanted to be a normal citizen in another country but the US government was consistently planning to hijack any plane he was on and force it to land in a stooge country of the US or the US itself.

    For all the crying about what he has exposed, what is the real damage that was so important to do and keep secret?

  129. His 30% support among decided blacks is astonishing, better than any GOP candidate has done in decades, or even generations. Among Hispanics, his 38% support is only two points behind George W Bush’s all-time high in 2004, and much better than either McCain and Romney did.

    If Trump gets the nom and then earns the Rs substantive gains among NAMs (on an immigration restriction platform) in the general, will the medias’ heads collectively explode? Or, will they protect their own sanity by pretending not to notice?

    I wonder if a few of their heads already exploded when they saw those poll numbers.

  130. @iSteveFan

    ALL the elites loathed Reagan. It was the freaking end of the world when he took office.
     
    I remember the liberals at that time calling him Ronnie Ray Gun. And I recall some religious nut who told me that Ronald Wilson Reagan had six letters in each of his names, so he thought Reagan would be the anti-Christ.

    I remember the liberals at that time calling him Ronnie Ray Gun. And I recall some religious nut who told me that Ronald Wilson Reagan had six letters in each of his names, so he thought Reagan would be the anti-Christ.

    If you rearrange the letters in ‘Ronald Wilson Reagan’ you get ‘Insane Anglo Warlord. George Herbert Walker Bush anagrams into ‘Huge Berserk Rebel Warthog.’

  131. @Reg Cæsar

    “Reagan has blood on his hands” was written all over the place because he wasn’t dedicating enough money to combat AIDS.
     
    What people do in the privacy of their own public bathhouses and opium dens is not the business of the government. And, by extension (pardon the expression), neither are the results of what those people do.

    Reagan realized this, and should get credit, not blame. Actually, he spent too much time and energy on AIDS, not too little.

    Public health is a governmental issue. If the plague was running rampant would you insist the government do nothing?

    • Replies: @Reg Cæsar

    Public health is a governmental issue. If the plague was running rampant would you insist the government do nothing?

     

    Plague can hit everybody, quickly and easily. AIDS, you really have to try hard in order to contract.

    Once the medical blood supply issue is addressed, there really is little reason for the state to pay attention to it. Big boys can clean up their own messes.

    Running rampant, or running rumpant. It makes a difference!

  132. @another commenter

    sacrificed his life for his people.
     
    Huh. Just like Kim Philby and Phillip Agee sacrificed their lives for their people. Amazing courage these guys show living out their lives peacefully under the watchful eyes of the KGB. True American heroes in every sense of the word. Make room on mount rushmore.

    Look don' t get me wrong, Snowden definitely brought a lot of issues to the fore, but in terms of US surveillance of americans, he "exposed" things that had been public knowledge for decades.

    To pretend that his motives were wholesome and well founded is ludicrous in light of what his leaks revealed and where he ran. The only rational explanations of what he did are not flattering. He is either a knowing agent of Russia, or an incredibly naive pawn.

    How would anyone know what kind of money and effort Washington is putting into Regime change in Syria? You wouldn’t if it weren’t for Snowden:

    At $1 billion, Syria-related operations account for about $1 of every $15 in the CIA’s overall budget, judging by spending levels revealed in documents the Washington Post obtained from former US intelligence contractor Edward Snowden.
    US officials said the CIA has trained and equipped nearly 10,000 fighters sent into Syria over the past several years — meaning that the agency is spending roughly $100,000 per year for every anti-Assad rebel who has gone through the program.

  133. @another commenter

    sacrificed his life for his people.
     
    Huh. Just like Kim Philby and Phillip Agee sacrificed their lives for their people. Amazing courage these guys show living out their lives peacefully under the watchful eyes of the KGB. True American heroes in every sense of the word. Make room on mount rushmore.

    Look don' t get me wrong, Snowden definitely brought a lot of issues to the fore, but in terms of US surveillance of americans, he "exposed" things that had been public knowledge for decades.

    To pretend that his motives were wholesome and well founded is ludicrous in light of what his leaks revealed and where he ran. The only rational explanations of what he did are not flattering. He is either a knowing agent of Russia, or an incredibly naive pawn.

    Your opinion of Snowden depends on whether you’re a cynical bastard, like me, who believes no one, American or other, has been safe from the Surveillance State since Echelon came to light, or a poor, deluded fool still hanging your hat on Truth, Justice and the American Way.

    I’m willing to live with my cynicism as long as the Surveillance State keeps up its end of the bargain and keeps me and mine safe. If they don’t, and it seems we’re just about ripe for the next big hit, then screw it, let a thousand Snowdens bloom!

  134. @K.K.
    My initial enthusiasm for him has strongly diminished, and is now only somewhat lukewarm. Since releasing his great immigration reform plan he has only backpedaled.

    Hope he doesn't cuck out completely.

    Agreed. And his idiotic comments about Snowden and praise for war criminals like Bolton dampened my enthusiasm considerably. I was pleased he initially had strong words to say about the mad butchers of Planned Parenthood, but since then there has been silence.

    • Replies: @jon

    praise for war criminals like Bolton dampened my enthusiasm considerably
     
    You guys are reading way too much into the Bolton comment. Listen to the interview again. He starts with a vague answer and only mentions Bolton after being pressed for more detail. He was just mentioning the first person to come to mind.

    For a better view of his foreign policy - he is the only Republican to openly criticize Iraq, and he has been doing so since before it started (i.e. he's not just doing this as an indirect hit on Jeb)
  135. @Troy
    Trump is doing very well among blacks (down only 25-59) and Asians (leading 41-39) and doing reasonably well among Hispanics (down 31-50).

    Definitely be wary of this poll being an outlier here. I only looked at one of the others, the PPP one, but it has Trump getting 13-82 among blacks, 27-65 among Hispanics, and 37-52 among "other." I expect these numbers are more representative.

    It is plausible that Trump can get more of the black vote than your typical Republican, but as always be wary of reading too much into one poll with small sample sizes, especially when that poll is an outlier.

    He had very high negatives among Republicans early as well, that reversed, he was getting killed by Hilary early, that has reversed as well. The 27 percent number you cite for Hispanics is exactly what Romney got in the general election in 2012, despite the MSM trying to portray the Donald as poison to Hispanic voters. He is doing exactly as you would expect among poor, big government loving Hispanics, which is what Anne Coulter has argued that would happen if a GOP candidate came out strongly among against illegal immigration. Hispanics aren’t voting majority GOP whether they pander to them or not, because Republicans can never get to the left of the Democrats is passing out big govt. goodies to poor people, and that in a nutshell is what Hispanics want.

  136. The way the consultants talk Hillary’s base is not among whites but blacks and Mexicans. However I see no enthusiasm for Hillary among the blacks I know.

    The fact she can’t draw crowds like Bernie can is worrisome.

    • Replies: @MarkinLA
    Even if a black doesn't really want to work and would rather be on welfare and thus be one of Hillary's natural constituents, nobody is going to hold up a sign saying "I want welfare for life, you owe me" or even say it out loud. Bernie's message of immigration hurting working class blacks will always play better to the crowd. In addition, blacks know they are losing political power to Hispanics.
  137. @rod1963
    The way the consultants talk Hillary's base is not among whites but blacks and Mexicans. However I see no enthusiasm for Hillary among the blacks I know.

    The fact she can't draw crowds like Bernie can is worrisome.

    Even if a black doesn’t really want to work and would rather be on welfare and thus be one of Hillary’s natural constituents, nobody is going to hold up a sign saying “I want welfare for life, you owe me” or even say it out loud. Bernie’s message of immigration hurting working class blacks will always play better to the crowd. In addition, blacks know they are losing political power to Hispanics.

  138. @Kiza
    I find Trump totally unconvincing on Snowden issue. Of course, he knows what he must say to stay in the race and he does. But if he wins presidency (extremely hard to believe this possible) he would remain totally neutral on Snowden.

    I find Trump totally unconvincing on Snowden issue. Of course, he knows what he must say to stay in the race and he does.

    Agreed. Snowden just isn’t that important of an issue, so he says what he thinks the largest junk of Republicans want to hear when directly asked, but then otherwise ignores it.

  139. @schmenz
    Agreed. And his idiotic comments about Snowden and praise for war criminals like Bolton dampened my enthusiasm considerably. I was pleased he initially had strong words to say about the mad butchers of Planned Parenthood, but since then there has been silence.

    praise for war criminals like Bolton dampened my enthusiasm considerably

    You guys are reading way too much into the Bolton comment. Listen to the interview again. He starts with a vague answer and only mentions Bolton after being pressed for more detail. He was just mentioning the first person to come to mind.

    For a better view of his foreign policy – he is the only Republican to openly criticize Iraq, and he has been doing so since before it started (i.e. he’s not just doing this as an indirect hit on Jeb)

  140. @Biff
    Public health is a governmental issue. If the plague was running rampant would you insist the government do nothing?

    Public health is a governmental issue. If the plague was running rampant would you insist the government do nothing?

    Plague can hit everybody, quickly and easily. AIDS, you really have to try hard in order to contract.

    Once the medical blood supply issue is addressed, there really is little reason for the state to pay attention to it. Big boys can clean up their own messes.

    Running rampant, or running rumpant. It makes a difference!

  141. @Anonymous
    Still waiting on the GOP consulting class to get inside Trump's OODA Loop. Any day now it'll happen and this nightmare will be all over and they can get back to the important business of losing national elections

    Well luckily for the Trump the level of intellect that makes up the Republican consulting class has as much chance of getting inside his OODA loop as a Boeing 747 has of looping inside a Spad.

  142. @neutral
    As a non American, Trump for me is the stereotypical larger than life American, which now there are very few of in America. The same applies to those blacks that glorify the pimp life and those rap videos with lots of gold jewelary and loose women, and I know a lot of white Americans would disagree that they represent a stereotypical American, but for me they do.

    As for Snowden, I do think he is a hero, a hero in the sense that he took on this gigantic faceless system as one man, ruining his life but gaining respect from all those that still think old fashioned one man heroics should exist in our gargantuan global machine.

    “As a non American, Trump for me is the stereotypical larger than life American, which now there are very few of in America.”

    I agree – Trump is 100% American – he is a throwback to the early 20th century – he is an optimistic can do person. Could any of the others do what he possibly could do – never.

    The thing that scares me is his closeness to the Jews. If he puts a bunch of “smart” Jews in charge – things would go very wrong.

    I do believe that if he as president had a choice to make between America and Israel, that he would chose America.

  143. @Mr Curious
    Trump is "only" leading Hillary 51-39 among Whites. But election stats often lump in Scots-Irish, Middle Easterners and even Indians as Whites. Among real Whites it's much higher. Hillary is the personification of the puritanical, censorious and psuedo-intellectual feminist yenta; she didn't even have to marry her daughter off into them to be the MSM's poster girl.

    “Real whites” Care to specify? Define? It is a real question.

  144. @CJ
    ... it's a free country.

    They also used to say, "There oughta be a law." I haven't heard that one for a long time.

    We no longer say “There oughta be a law” because we don’t want to give the Masters of the Leviathan State any ideas.

  145. @Glossy
    I just looked it up. It's true.

    http://www.motherjones.com/politics/2015/08/donald-trump-john-bolton-iraq-war

    In that Meet the Press interview, host Chuck Todd asked Trump to identify his "go-to" experts for national security matters. Trump said he "probably" had two or three. Todd pressed the tycoon for names, and the first one Trump mentioned was John Bolton, the George W. Bush administration's ambassador to the United Nations. "He's, you know, a tough cookie, knows what he's talking about," Trump said. (He also named retired Col. Jack Jacobs, an MSNBC military analyst.)

    He's still better than Jeb or Hillary. Just not on foreign policy.

    Jeb’s foreign policy adviser is Paul Wolfowitz. That alone should be enough to render him out of anyone’s consideration.

    • Agree: Seamus Padraig
  146. @27 year old
    blah blah military coup

    Yeah, the military that makes its recruits march in girl's shoes because raaaape, kills itself in record numbers, fielded no retribution for fort hood OR chattanooga (other than talking smack on facebook about how god damned tough they are), is going to pull off a coup.

    you'd have better chance of a local paintball team seizing power than the us military.

    Ain’t that the truth. With the lightning speed the Pentagon moved to open the services to the transgendered, I wondered if the brass was creating a plan to demoralize the rank and file from carrying out a coup. If they move towards fat acceptance and away from fat shaming, then we’ll know for sure.

  147. My girlfriend and I were discussing Donald Trump last night (she probably likes him even more than I do), and we got onto some of the other candidates, and she mentioned Hillary Clinton, and “how I just have no respect for that woman,” at which point I noticed Jeb Bush on our TV screen, so I gestured towards the TV, and asked “How about that woman?” She nearly choked on her cocktail, LOL.

    I soon thereafter tried to make a joke about how Carly Fiorina doesn’t so much run for office, as nag for it, but that was a bridge too far, alas. She didn’t find that funny at all.

  148. @Mr Curious
    Trump is "only" leading Hillary 51-39 among Whites. But election stats often lump in Scots-Irish, Middle Easterners and even Indians as Whites. Among real Whites it's much higher. Hillary is the personification of the puritanical, censorious and psuedo-intellectual feminist yenta; she didn't even have to marry her daughter off into them to be the MSM's poster girl.

    “Trump is “only” leading Hillary 51-39 among Whites. But election stats often lump in Scots-Irish, Middle Easterners and even Indians as Whites. Among real Whites it’s much higher.”

    I’m not going to address this peculiar notion that Scots-Irish somehow aren’t “real Whites,” and simply note that neither us have seen any specific polling data with respect to Scots-Irish enthusiasm for the ongoing Trumpification. My suspicion, is that he’s probably doing disproportionately well within that grouping. And while that’s merely my unsupported opinion, I think it carries a bit more weight than the opinion of a person who imagines that Davy Crocket, Kit Carson, Jimmy Carter, and Jim Webb (among many, many other notables), are somehow other-than-White.

    • Replies: @IHTG
    Whoooooooooooooosh!
  149. @Harry Baldwin
    The Knockout Game comes to France, courtesy of African refugees, and teenaged girls are fair game! What a sad end to a once great culture.

    “The Knockout Game comes to France, courtesy of African refugees, and teenaged girls are fair game! What a sad end to a once great culture.”

    French culture isn’t ending.

    Don’t be a defeatist.

  150. @Kevin O'Keeffe
    "Trump is “only” leading Hillary 51-39 among Whites. But election stats often lump in Scots-Irish, Middle Easterners and even Indians as Whites. Among real Whites it’s much higher."

    I'm not going to address this peculiar notion that Scots-Irish somehow aren't "real Whites," and simply note that neither us have seen any specific polling data with respect to Scots-Irish enthusiasm for the ongoing Trumpification. My suspicion, is that he's probably doing disproportionately well within that grouping. And while that's merely my unsupported opinion, I think it carries a bit more weight than the opinion of a person who imagines that Davy Crocket, Kit Carson, Jimmy Carter, and Jim Webb (among many, many other notables), are somehow other-than-White.

    Whoooooooooooooosh!

    • Replies: @Kevin O'Keeffe
    "Whoooooooooooooosh!"

    Oh, that stupid Jew thing. When I want to talk about Jews, I just type "Jews." You know, like an actual grown-up.
  151. @countenance
    Expect to see a concerted effort to demonize Trump among blacks.

    In this poll, Trump has 25% of blacks, you say he could get 30%. I think that's being way too optimistic. He could get 15%, and that would be exospheric for a Republican Presidential candidate among black voters.

    But there's another side to the equation.

    Black turnout.

    If blacks don't fear or hate Trump, and they aren't jazzed by whoever the Democrat nominee is, then they'll stay home. A black voter who voted for Obama in 2012 but stays home for the Trump vs (Generic white Democrat) contest in 2016 is in essence casting a half a vote for Trump.

    “In this poll, Trump has 25% of blacks, you say he could get 30%. I think that’s being way too optimistic. He could get 15%, and that would be exospheric for a Republican Presidential candidate among black voters.”

    Actually, 15 percent is pretty darn close to what a GOP nominee customarily receives, when the Democratic nominee is a White man. The last two elections were simply anomalous.

  152. @IHTG
    Whoooooooooooooosh!

    “Whoooooooooooooosh!”

    Oh, that stupid Jew thing. When I want to talk about Jews, I just type “Jews.” You know, like an actual grown-up.

    • Replies: @Truth
    http://www.jewishjournal.com/images/articles/michael_richards_scottish_r_14043.jpg
  153. @Kevin O'Keeffe
    "Whoooooooooooooosh!"

    Oh, that stupid Jew thing. When I want to talk about Jews, I just type "Jews." You know, like an actual grown-up.

  154. @David
    When he used the word narcissistic I figured it must be David Brooks making that comment.

    I'm with you. I can't figure out how it can be illegal to disclose unconstitutional acts taken by our government while retaining constitutional government.

    When Snowden first came out, narcissism was the word of the day. Every single talking head on every network used the word. I figure the NSA used it heavily in whatever crap the spoonfed to the media.

  155. @Mr Curious
    Trump is "only" leading Hillary 51-39 among Whites. But election stats often lump in Scots-Irish, Middle Easterners and even Indians as Whites. Among real Whites it's much higher. Hillary is the personification of the puritanical, censorious and psuedo-intellectual feminist yenta; she didn't even have to marry her daughter off into them to be the MSM's poster girl.

    > “puritanical, censorious and psuedo-intellectual feminist yenta”

    Perfect!

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