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Trump and "The Power of Positive Thinking"
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Something to keep in mind is that Donald Trump’s personality, while it is unusual, has been consistent over the decades. As a child, he attended the sermons of the Rev. Norman Vincent Peale, author of the bestseller The Power of Positive Thinking.

Here is an insightful 2016 book review of Trump’s 1988 memoir Trump: The Art of the Deal by Scott Alexander, who may have the exact opposite personality from Donald Trump:

I started the book with the question: what exactly do real estate developers do? They don’t design buildings; they hire an architect for that part. They don’t construct the buildings; they hire a construction company for that part. They don’t manage the buildings; they hire a management company for that part. They’re not even the capitalist who funds the whole thing; they get a loan from a bank for that. So what do they do? Why don’t you or I take out a $100 million loan from a bank, hire a company to build a $100 million skyscraper, and then rent it out for somewhat more than $100 million and become rich?

As best I can tell, the developer’s job is coordination. This often means blatant lies. The usual process goes like this: the bank would be happy to lend you the money as long as you have guaranteed renters. The renters would be happy to sign up as long as you show them a design. The architect would be happy to design the building as long as you tell them what the government’s allowing. The government would be happy to give you your permit as long as you have a construction company lined up. And the construction company would be happy to sign on with you as long as you have the money from the bank in your pocket. Or some kind of complicated multi-step catch-22 like that. The solution – or at least Trump’s solution – is to tell everybody that all the other players have agreed and the deal is completely done except for their signature. The trick is to lie to the right people in the right order, so that by the time somebody checks to see whether they’ve been conned, you actually do have the signatures you told them that you had. The whole thing sounds very stressful.

Trump is good at conveying good news, but not good at conveying bad news. So when there is bad news, don’t expect him to convey very vividly what it is.

Your health may depend upon you keeping this in mind.

 
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  1. Well, I’ll take the liberty of republishing part of a comment I left on one of the earliest iSteve/Coronavirus posts almost exactly two weeks ago:

    Well, I’ve often pointed out the negative consequences of having a country run by its Ministry of Propaganda.

    For decades, America government and society has become more and more crazy and incompetent, with that reality concealed by our ever more sweeping propaganda. But since the Coronavirus doesn’t pay attention to the MSM, we’ll soon find out the consequences of that strategy.

    The biggest problem with the Coronavirus is that you can’t deplatform it from Twitter when it does things you don’t like…

    • Thanks: Coemgen
    • Replies: @wren
    @Ron Unz

    The biggest problem with the Coronavirus is that you can’t deplatform it from Twitter when it does things you don’t like…

    Yeah, the CCP has deplatformed it from weibo and the Chinese media but they are having a tougher time of deplatforming it from Twitter, with a few exceptions. I was surprised to see a few mainland Chinese Twitter users get banned thanks to Chinese pressure, but some of them found their way back on.

    For example, this guy https://mobile.twitter.com/phdparody got banned for a while, but came back with a different name.

    As far as I know the wuhan virus succeeded in deplatforming Zerohedge from twitter, which was a pretty impressive scalp to collect.

    In fact, the CCP did deplatform the wuhan virus from their own platform.

    https://www.taiwannews.com.tw/en/news/3905013

    Replies: @Achmed E. Newman, @Bill P

    , @trelane
    @Ron Unz

    For decades, America government and society has become more [...] incompetent,

    I cannot believe the Chinese will not notice this, that Western powers are in fact enfeebled by their unmeritocratic public and private institutions (e.g., the CDC which dropped the ball and has been on the sidelines, ineffectual ever since).

    Replies: @Louis Renault, @BenKenobi, @Anonymous

    , @JimDandy
    @Ron Unz

    An extreme segregation of the elderly and other high-risk people seems like the key to me--not just for their own sakes, but to keep the system from getting overwhelmed.

    Replies: @BB753, @anon

    , @Dieter Kief
    @Ron Unz

    A gypsy with a broken flag and a flashing ring
    Said, "Son, this ain't a dream no more, it's the real thing"

    (Bob Dylan - Slow Train Coming / Senor - Tales of Yankee Power.)

    , @John Burns, Gettysburg Partisan
    @Ron Unz

    Actually, America has become quite competent at forcing Italians overseas to watch porn and avoid religious services.

    Replies: @The Wild Geese Howard

    , @UK
    @Ron Unz

    An ironic post coming from someone who sounds like intelligent Chinese propaganda. By the way, why do you think the Chinese are slowly re-opening up if they really think the US/Jews did it? If one thought that then it would be totally crazy and irrational to suppose the virus wouldn't be re-seeded.

    , @Forbes
    @Ron Unz

    I dunno.

    Woodrow Wilson ran a pretty good propaganda operation during the First World War, so it doesn't seem such a recent phenomena if you've been paying attention.

    A bit like just noticing the media's fake news--as if that merely started during Trump.

    The observers and commentators on the art of propaganda media, say Marshall McLuhan and Neil Postman, wrote about this "media effect" in the '50s and '60s.

    The true negative consequences are more likely the size and scale of government itself, its myriad laws and regulations, its one-size-fits-all policy solutions which conflict with being all things to all people in order to satisfy every special interest constituency, and its dreadnought battleship-like inability to change course with any speed and precision.

    Propaganda is merely to paper-over the reality of these deficiencies. It's just self-preservation.

    , @dfordoom
    @Ron Unz


    Well, I’ve often pointed out the negative consequences of having a country run by its Ministry of Propaganda.
     
    That's one of the truest and most important points you've ever made.
  2. I’ve long been wondering why Trump picked Mike Pence as his “lieutenant.” Of course, he has his Christian creds but he’s another “not so great” at teleprompter reading. Yet, he’s been fantastic as Dr Pence during this pandemic. His bedside manner is world-class.

    Winning again!

    Of course, real winning will be if Trump get $1,000,000,000,000 to spend any way he wants.

    • Agree: danand
    • Replies: @Anonymous
    @Coemgen


    I’ve long been wondering why Trump picked Mike Pence as his “lieutenant.” Of course, he has his Christian creds but he’s another “not so great” at teleprompter reading. Yet, he’s been fantastic as Dr Pence during this pandemic. His bedside manner is world-class.
     
    Don’t forget, President Trump is a boomer. Boomers work under the same cultural references only they can understand. Consequently, he picked Pence simply because of his uncanny resemblance to Race Bannon.

    Pence's job, like Bannon's, is to protect President Trump from would-be World dominators, and terror-minded thieves.

    Hope this helps.

    https://youtu.be/ToQ-S1g8CJM

    Replies: @Harry Baldwin

    , @R.G. Camara
    @Coemgen

    Pence is one of those sober, somber, boring Washington-speakers that Trump cannot be. This was precisely the sort of situation Trump needed him for; while Trump projects excitement onto people (for good or for ill), Pence projects calm stoic boringness and yet also a well-informed manner, while Trump largely seems to be improv.

    Trump got Pence for the gravitas needed for bad situations where Trump's excitement might be a hindrance. In a crisis, you want a boring, low-key guy as one of the public faces, because everyone calms down.

    Replies: @Dave Pinsen, @Anonymous, @Unladen Swallow, @Twodees Partain

    , @ScarletNumber
    @Coemgen


    real winning will be if Trump get $1,000,000,000,000 to spend any way he wants.
     
    I thought you were exaggerating when you typed this, but this is indeed what one trillion looks like. It's a million million.
    , @Realist
    @Coemgen


    I’ve long been wondering why Trump picked Mike Pence as his “lieutenant.” Of course, he has his Christian creds but he’s another “not so great” at teleprompter reading.
     
    The Rev Pence missed his calling.
  3. Trump has served his historical purpose, which was to be the epic troll for the national establishment, blue and red.

    Plus, he has inadvertently united the country, at least the part with shred of humanity, behind the notion of not dying for wall street.

    General Strike is rumbling in background, let’s see where that goes as we continue to hear crickets from our billionaire class.

    Trump is a tired man now and his mental acuity has slipped. Various theories surrounding his unscheduled WRAMC visit last November seem within realm of credibility.

    Like some small strokes that have left him functional, just a little stubborn and set in his ways. Used to be considered a common consequence of aging.

    He’s not of the mental powers he had on campaign trail in 2016, that is obvious to any careful observer IMO.

    His apparent need for all the Dear Leader adulation by subordinates in press conferences is another sign of decline.

    • Disagree: Kronos
    • Troll: PhysicistDave
    • Replies: @Kronos
    @anonguy


    Like some small strokes that have left him functional, just a little stubborn and set in his ways. Used to be considered a common consequence of aging.
     
    Please keep in mind that he’s been on a war-footing since the 2015 Republican Primaries. Jeez, I’m exhausted just recalling the last five years and I’m fairly young and not in public office. He has to contend against neoliberal Democrats and backstabbing Neocons. He’s navigated the whole thing extremely well. He and Bernie Sanders are the most energetic old timers I know. (I likely would’ve died from a heart attack already if President. Likely from using hookers and meth like JFK.) So between navigating a presidential race and managing Covid 19/Great Depression 2.0 I understand he’s a bit tired.

    http://www.angelfire.com/mech/jinsaotome/JinsDangerousToys2/EmperorTrump_001.JPG

    Replies: @anonguy, @anon, @Uilleam yr Alban

    , @Pericles
    @anonguy

    As we have seen, read and heard, the whole Deep State with media, academia, #resistance and all, have had large and small strokes since 2016. They are burned out, they are a spent force, they are zombies staggering about mouthing woke word salad. Trump has literally blasted new pathways through their brains.

    , @TrudeauSux
    @anonguy

    Trump is on fire just like in his rallies from 2016...what the hell have you been watching you deluded fool???

    , @William Badwhite
    @anonguy

    He's been speaking ad hoc during a lot of this and has been fantastic. He killed it on Hannity last night. I don't usually watch Hannity but tuned in to hear Trump.

    I couldn't stop laughing when he singled out Governor Inslee of WA and the woman in Michigan. Something to the effect of "Jay Inslee in Washington. Another failed presidential candidate by the way. He ran, didn't do so well. He got zero". About the MI woman he said he loves Michigan, loves the people, and "they deserve a governor who does something besides sit there and complain. "

    Trump is at his best when he ridicules the political class.

    , @Escher
    @anonguy


    Plus, he has inadvertently united the country, at least the part with shred of humanity, behind the notion of not dying for wall street.
     
    Really? You still believe that after the multi trillion bailout?
  4. Someone, please….get Steve a drink. Make it a big one.
    Here’s a guy who should be shredding the hysteria…buying into it?
    Please Steve, turn off your TV.

    • Troll: Corvinus
    • Replies: @scrivener3
    @Dano

    I am surprised Steve is going all in on this.

    Reading the data coming in is hard. Several young doctors die. Did that happen in any other epidemic? I can't remember and do not know.

    I do know there is major panic. When the top health official of NJ says he/she will get it, everyone in NJ will get it... well. . . that has never happened before in recorded history. One hundred percent of a given population has never acquired an infectious agent.

    The lamestream media decides what is news and if they look in a nation of 800 million people they will find lots of confirmation bias stories. A man standing in front of a deli, said to be a doctor at "a" hospital says it is a war zone never seen anything like it.Is that persona doctor? has the media vetted his claim? Will he give his name? Haven't seen that yet.

    , @Kronos
    @Dano

    Steve, you have a favorite drink?

    Replies: @Father O'Hara

    , @JimDandy
    @Dano

    Ok, not looking for an argument here. I'm looking for clarification. The people calling this an enormous over reaction/hoax point to death rates. But are ICUs not actually being overwhelmed, in ways that haven't happened in previous regular ol' flu seasons? Are those all crisis actors? Is the overwhelming of the ICUs not an enormous problem for many reasons, not the least of which being the fact that people without the virus who need the ICU will die when in any other year the would have lived?

    What am I missing here? And, again, I accept the fact that I might be missing something.

    Replies: @RichardTaylor, @Spud Boy, @Thatgirl

    , @Mike1
    @Dano

    I'm thrilled that Steve has a brain and is capable of using it. This has been an obvious nightmare since January. Watching conservatives blindly follow Trump on this has been really eye opening.

    I get that math is hard. This is a math problem. People's understanding or not will be a life or death outcome - particularly for Boomers and older.

    My money is where my mouth is on this. I sold my house and every asset not required for my businesses. I told everyone I cared about to sell their stocks. Everybody but one person laughed. The guy that sold (and myself) are sitting on piles of cash while all the know-it-alls have seen savage losses. If the market has actually reached a bottom we have the luxury of buying in whenever we feel like it and still being ahead.

    A disease where you die from drowning in your own blood seems worth not catching.

    Replies: @anonymous

  5. In an epidemic, the connotations of “positive” are, well, less than positive themselves.

  6. @Ron Unz
    Well, I'll take the liberty of republishing part of a comment I left on one of the earliest iSteve/Coronavirus posts almost exactly two weeks ago:

    Well, I’ve often pointed out the negative consequences of having a country run by its Ministry of Propaganda.

    For decades, America government and society has become more and more crazy and incompetent, with that reality concealed by our ever more sweeping propaganda. But since the Coronavirus doesn’t pay attention to the MSM, we’ll soon find out the consequences of that strategy.
     
    The biggest problem with the Coronavirus is that you can't deplatform it from Twitter when it does things you don't like...

    Replies: @wren, @trelane, @JimDandy, @Dieter Kief, @John Burns, Gettysburg Partisan, @UK, @Forbes, @dfordoom

    The biggest problem with the Coronavirus is that you can’t deplatform it from Twitter when it does things you don’t like…

    Yeah, the CCP has deplatformed it from weibo and the Chinese media but they are having a tougher time of deplatforming it from Twitter, with a few exceptions. I was surprised to see a few mainland Chinese Twitter users get banned thanks to Chinese pressure, but some of them found their way back on.

    For example, this guy https://mobile.twitter.com/phdparody got banned for a while, but came back with a different name.

    As far as I know the wuhan virus succeeded in deplatforming Zerohedge from twitter, which was a pretty impressive scalp to collect.

    In fact, the CCP did deplatform the wuhan virus from their own platform.

    https://www.taiwannews.com.tw/en/news/3905013

    • Replies: @Achmed E. Newman
    @wren

    I know more about the CCP's dicked-up attempt at information control than Ron Unz does, and I agree with you here, but:

    Shed no tears for Zerohedge, Wren. They've lost their focus on global financial matters, they've nearly hidden the comments which used to be the best part of the site, it's full of ads that make the page jump around like a Mexican jumping bean for 2 minutes before you can read, but worstly, "Tyler Durden" has quit the fight club and become a simpering pussy on the subject of the Kung Flu - see Peak Stupidity"s "Et tu, Tyler?"

    Replies: @onetwothree, @wren, @Peter D. Bredon

    , @Bill P
    @wren

    The CCP is dominating Wikipedia on this issue. These treasonous little weasels in tech, media and academia are in full flower right now. They're scared they'll lose the deal they've had with Beijing for the past couple decades, so they're doubling down.

    In the meanwhile, Beijing is locking up foreigners and blaming the US military for the virus while Chinese citizens are walking around smugly with smiles on their faces here in the US.

    Whose country is this?

    Don't beat up Chinese, but feel free to let them know what you think of the CCP. There's no reason they should be comfortable here given what they've put us through. One thing is for sure -- the Chinese are currently abusing American citizens in China.

    Don't let them do that without pushback!

    Replies: @wren, @Anonymous

  7. Trump is good at conveying good news, but not good at conveying bad news. So when there is bad news, don’t expect him to convey very vividly what it is.

    The corollary to that may be that he was going to have an easy time of being President in easy times with lots of good news. But now, with an actual crisis, the shift to “wartime President” may not be proving all that effective.

    • Replies: @anonguy
    @Thomas


    But now, with an actual crisis, the shift to “wartime President” may not be proving all that effective.
     
    One of his ongoing bits was that he could be as presidential as the most presidential president, in his estimation, Lincoln, but we would all be bored.

    When this virus stuff started, I thought, ok dude, here is your chance and he has never missed an opportunity to miss an opportunity.

    IMO at least as much of it to mental decline due to aging as mendacity, etc. He's supposedly an OCD germophobe, for cryin' out loud.

    Gerontocracy, like obesity, we have so much of it around it has become normalized and we fail to see it.

    LIke the Daily Mail articles popping up now about "fit and healthy" people with no comorbidities dyijng in their 30s/40s but you look at the pics and the individual is clearly quite overweight.

    Replies: @Louis Renault, @The Last Real Calvinist, @black sea, @Kratoklastes

    , @Dave Pinsen
    @Thomas

    Trump's approval rating on his handling of the virus is 60-38 in favor according to Gallop.

    https://twitter.com/GallupNews/status/1242768434632503296?s=20

    Since he declared a national emergency, Trump has briefed the country, with experts on hand, 7 days per week. I'm not sure what critics want Trump to do that he hasn't done yet. Ideally, he would have called for a shutdown earlier, but I'm not sure it would have been politically possible for him (remember, he was still in an impeachment trial going into February), and, in any case, governors seem to have the authority for these shutdowns.

    The real screw-ups have been at the FDA and the CDC, preventing the rapid manufacture of new masks and screwing up the test production. How much power does Trump, or any POTUS, have over the career civil servants in those agencies?

    Replies: @Mr McKenna, @The Germ Theory of Disease, @PiltdownMan, @Thomas, @Corvinus

  8. @Thomas

    Trump is good at conveying good news, but not good at conveying bad news. So when there is bad news, don’t expect him to convey very vividly what it is.
     
    The corollary to that may be that he was going to have an easy time of being President in easy times with lots of good news. But now, with an actual crisis, the shift to "wartime President" may not be proving all that effective.

    Replies: @anonguy, @Dave Pinsen

    But now, with an actual crisis, the shift to “wartime President” may not be proving all that effective.

    One of his ongoing bits was that he could be as presidential as the most presidential president, in his estimation, Lincoln, but we would all be bored.

    When this virus stuff started, I thought, ok dude, here is your chance and he has never missed an opportunity to miss an opportunity.

    IMO at least as much of it to mental decline due to aging as mendacity, etc. He’s supposedly an OCD germophobe, for cryin’ out loud.

    Gerontocracy, like obesity, we have so much of it around it has become normalized and we fail to see it.

    LIke the Daily Mail articles popping up now about “fit and healthy” people with no comorbidities dyijng in their 30s/40s but you look at the pics and the individual is clearly quite overweight.

    • Replies: @Louis Renault
    @anonguy

    You go to war with the Deep State and career professionals you have, not the ones you want.

    Replies: @anonguy

    , @The Last Real Calvinist
    @anonguy


    LIke the Daily Mail articles popping up now about “fit and healthy” people with no comorbidities dyijng in their 30s/40s but you look at the pics and the individual is clearly quite overweight.

     

    It's seemed obvious for the past couple of weeks that the DM is launching fusillades of scare stories, maybe to try to get their readers to comply with the UK social distancing mandates. If so, it works. I have a couple of British friends who scorn the DM if you mention it, but who never the less read it, and who end up talking obsessively about these outlier worst-case scenarios as if they're already common amongst healthy members of the population.

    Or it could just be the DM's rather florid and emotion-driven general approach shining through under crisis conditions.

    Replies: @utu, @anonguy

    , @black sea
    @anonguy

    I noticed this as well. In yesterday's Daily Mail, they wrote about a "fit and healthy" 47 year old who died alone, but when you see his photographs he looks like a grossly obese 55 year old. Of course, his story was quite sad -- he died alone due to self-imposed quarantine -- but that doesn't make him "fit and healthy."

    https://www.dailymail.co.uk/news/article-8154747/Fit-healthy-banker-dies-coronavirus-isolation.html

    Replies: @anonguy, @BB753, @Hibernian, @Jonathan Mason

    , @Kratoklastes
    @anonguy


    LIke the Daily Mail articles popping up now about “fit and healthy” people with no comorbidities dyijng in their 30s/40s but you look at the pics and the individual is clearly quite overweight.
     
    It's painful to watch TPTWTCTB (The Powers That Want To Continue To Be), parading any victim that can be passed off as 'just like you the viewer'.

    It's reminiscent of the "heterosexuals can get AIDS" shit from the 80s.

    I've previously confessed that I never saw the Oprah episode in which she claimed that "20% of heterosexual Americans would die of AIDS in the next three years"... but as a 20-something I was still (vaguely) aware of flimsy amateur-theatrics trying to convince non-pillowbiters that they would get AIDS.

    The "Look at this normal looking 30-something guy who died of covid19" bullshit will convince mostly women (a lot of whom are not up to the rigours of 8th grade mathematics, and could not process the difference between anecdotes and data if you threatened to kill their children).

    That's the target market: people who don't understand statistics, probability and so forth.

    If a supermodel-looking 20-something chicksie ever dies of covid19, the orgasms in the DailyMail 'SheMail' magazine editorial staff would be heard halfway round the world.

    If a proper famous (TOWIE, MAFS, Geordie Shore or Kardashian) ever got it, the editorial staff would cum themselves to death immediately.

    Replies: @anonguy, @AnotherDad

  9. I take it you think increasing the debt by several trillion dollars is a positive well thought out disposition.

    I will believe that when the president announces that celibacy is a whole and healthy lifestyle.

    There’s a lot to be said for the power of positive thinking and more importantly behaving. However, minus those instances in which near miraculous events over take impossible to overcome realities as we understand it . . .

    Lying to people in the hopes that thinks will get done, or one will succeed is probably going to leave a lot of devastation in its wake, even if that devastation is not immediately visible. By most measures, the current executive has succeeded and that’s fine. But that measure is but must be assessed with care, lest the wake as a tidal wave blindsides one into reality.

  10. @Ron Unz
    Well, I'll take the liberty of republishing part of a comment I left on one of the earliest iSteve/Coronavirus posts almost exactly two weeks ago:

    Well, I’ve often pointed out the negative consequences of having a country run by its Ministry of Propaganda.

    For decades, America government and society has become more and more crazy and incompetent, with that reality concealed by our ever more sweeping propaganda. But since the Coronavirus doesn’t pay attention to the MSM, we’ll soon find out the consequences of that strategy.
     
    The biggest problem with the Coronavirus is that you can't deplatform it from Twitter when it does things you don't like...

    Replies: @wren, @trelane, @JimDandy, @Dieter Kief, @John Burns, Gettysburg Partisan, @UK, @Forbes, @dfordoom

    For decades, America government and society has become more […] incompetent,

    I cannot believe the Chinese will not notice this, that Western powers are in fact enfeebled by their unmeritocratic public and private institutions (e.g., the CDC which dropped the ball and has been on the sidelines, ineffectual ever since).

    • Replies: @Louis Renault
    @trelane

    Who was it that used to drive Senator Feinstein around? How long has China been infiltrating 'elite' universities here?
    https://www.justice.gov/opa/pr/harvard-university-professor-and-two-chinese-nationals-charged-three-separate-china-related

    Replies: @Alice, @danand, @Twodees Partain

    , @BenKenobi
    @trelane


    that Western powers are in fact enfeebled by their unmeritocratic public and private institutions
     
    It took 100 years, but the process started by Trotsky's cynical heart-bleeding for the "poor oppressed" American negro has been wildly successful.
    , @Anonymous
    @trelane

    I don't know if this has impacted the CDC or not.

    https://www.cdc.gov/about/diversity/diversity.htm

    https://www.cdc.gov/minorityhealth/diversityandinclusion/index.html

  11. The President’s job really is just coordination (mostly of the states and their representatives under a federalism framework) and leadership (mostly in foreign relations). Trump is out here holding hour long press conferences everyday with multiple actors and experts—meanwhile Joe Biden struggles to get through a 5 min teleconference. He’s largely left the governors of each state to handle each state differently, although many have taken the lead from the feds. The amount of force to get people to social distance in crowded NYC and sparsely populated Wyoming are quite different, after all.

    I’m not a fan of the forced quarantines or the giant bailout, but am I really to believe anything would’ve been better if Obama or W were leading this shitshow of panic that has swept the nation?

    • Replies: @Rob (London)
    @Polynikes

    Either of those presidents would at least have had a pandemic prevention unit to call on. Trump in his infinite wisdom decided that because there wasn't a pandemic happening at the time, it wasn't needed.

    Replies: @wren, @Harry Baldwin, @ben tillman

    , @grim prognosis
    @Polynikes

    He’s largely left the governors of each state to handle each state differently, although many have taken the lead from the feds.
    This is called "federalism".

    , @Pericles
    @Polynikes


    am I really to believe anything would’ve been better if Obama or W were leading this shitshow of panic that has swept the nation?

     

    If you had only listened, you could have had Hillary.
  12. Which is why I’ve been patient with Trump about building the wall/draining the swamp. It’s wearing thin, but its stll there.

    Trump modus operandi in building is not piecemeal. He waits, waits, waits for the right opportunity, and then springs it all at once, full steam ahead. He’s not a typical pol, with their slow rollouts and piecemeal death-by-a-thousand-cuts method. He hypes his projects up to the moon, but makes no definitive move till every piece is in place.

    Heck, this is how he ran for president. He made noise about running for decades, but waited until the perfect moment to actually do it: an opposing candidate with huge negatives (Hillary), a weak primary field (!Jeb!, Marco, Lyin’ Ted, etc.), a foolproof method of getting his message out past network censors (his hugely popular Twitter feed, which was big before he ran), a few populist issues to run on (immigration, nationalism) and a change election for the opposing party (Obama was less popular than polls suggested, Bradley effect, as the 2012 turnout for him was less than 2008).

    So why would he change his methods now?

    The Wuhan flu is a huge monkey wrench, but I fully expect Trump to pull a real, actual October surprise.

    • Replies: @Charon
    @R.G. Camara

    Knock Trump all you want, people! He's not only getting Mexicans to pay for the Wall, he's getting them to build it!


    https://nypost.com/2020/03/26/mexican-protesters-block-border-crossing-over-coronavirus/

    , @MEH 0910
    @R.G. Camara


    Which is why I’ve been patient with Trump about building the wall/draining the swamp. It’s wearing thin, but its stll there.
     
    Airplane - give 20 more minutes
    https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=wtmnf7QlX_4
    , @Sam Haysom
    @R.G. Camara

    This is a very interesting analysis but 2016 was probably one of the most talented primary fields in at least my lifetime. Trump just outright destroyed Jeb and then ground down the rest of the candidates. For instance Jeb would locked up the 2012 nomination up by Super Tuesday. No one else would have diagnosed his glass jaw and attacked like Trump did.

    Conversely I think Romney was the one politician that could have ground Trump down and beat him in a primary. Romney’s best poltical skill was his ability to focus an attack and his most dangerous rival during a multi-candidate debate

    Replies: @R.G. Camara

    , @ben tillman
    @R.G. Camara

    Good comment. I hope you're right.

  13. And let me also say the blurb Steve quoted, shows the author has literally NO IDEA about business. No clue whatsoever how a commercial real estate loan is put together. Truly a first-grade level of understanding. Pathetic is WAY too nice a word in describing what Scott Alexander wrote. Infantile in its description. Complete, total Hollywood level of stupidity. If anyone, and I mean even the half-wits at HuffPo, considers what Alexander wrote to be even a minuscule of accuracy is fooling themselves.

    Two words: Good God…

    • Agree: Forbes
    • Replies: @Anonymous
    @Dano

    Instead of typing a whole paragraph just to say "that's dumb," why not share your specific issues with what Alexander wrote?

    Replies: @Dano

    , @ScarletNumber
    @Dano

    To describe Scott Alexander as autistic is to put it mildly. He is very naive outside his area of expertise.

    He is also VERY long-winded. Having said that, his greatest hits are very good.

    Replies: @nebulafox

  14. So when there is bad news, don’t expect him to convey very vividly what it is.

    Your health may depend upon you keeping this in mind.

    For Christ’s sake. Could you be any more melodramatic? Stop being a cowardly old woman and live your life for however long you have left.

    • Agree: Alice
    • Replies: @MEH 0910
    @Federalist

    Do you understand the responsibility that Steve bears for other peoples lives? Steve singlehandedly elected Trump president.

    https://nymag.com/intelligencer/2017/04/steve-sailer-invented-identity-politics-for-the-alt-right.html

    Replies: @ScarletNumber, @Dano

    , @David Davenport
    @Federalist

    I agree with Federalist:

    For Christ’s sake. Could you be any more melodramatic? Stop being a cowardly old woman and live your life for however long you have left.

    Steve, I mean this seriously. You are disappointing me and other long time fans. Stop contributing to the Kung Fu Flu hysteria.

    --David Davenport

    , @MEH 0910
    @Federalist

    https://twitter.com/DavidAFrench/status/1241709430363828224

  15. Maybe Steve is wrong. Maybe the news is good.

    • LOL: Twodees Partain
    • Replies: @Alice
    @Spangel

    https://www.c-span.org/video/?470715-101/dr-deborah-birx-coronavirus-predictions-model-match-reality

    decide for yourself.
    Why isn't Steve putting Birx up all the time?

  16. >I started the book with the question: what exactly do real estate developers do? <

    They have an idea of how to transform a parcel of real estate from its current condition into something more profitable. The rest is just details.

    • Replies: @newrouter
    @newrouter

    grammar update: >The rest "are" just details.< The rest is plural no?

    Replies: @black sea, @Kim

    , @James J. O'Meara
    @newrouter

    "They have an idea of how to transform a parcel of real estate from its current condition into something more profitable. The rest is just details."

    I published a kindle on Trump and positive thinking (or rather, New Thought) but Amazon nuked it last year as Hate Speech. You can still find the articles on Counter-Currents, though, and in my real book, Magick for Housewives.

    Anyhow, your comment brings this to mind: I focused on Neville Goddard rather than Norman Vincent Peale, and Neville's father created a vast fortune as a real estate developer (based on a food service business, Goddard Enterprises, still around and the largest conglomerate in the Caribbean). Many of his stories about "the power of positive thinking" as Peale would call it, involve his father's ability to "visualize" how parcels of land would look as developments, or how financing could be suddenly available. Hmmm.

  17. @wren
    @Ron Unz

    The biggest problem with the Coronavirus is that you can’t deplatform it from Twitter when it does things you don’t like…

    Yeah, the CCP has deplatformed it from weibo and the Chinese media but they are having a tougher time of deplatforming it from Twitter, with a few exceptions. I was surprised to see a few mainland Chinese Twitter users get banned thanks to Chinese pressure, but some of them found their way back on.

    For example, this guy https://mobile.twitter.com/phdparody got banned for a while, but came back with a different name.

    As far as I know the wuhan virus succeeded in deplatforming Zerohedge from twitter, which was a pretty impressive scalp to collect.

    In fact, the CCP did deplatform the wuhan virus from their own platform.

    https://www.taiwannews.com.tw/en/news/3905013

    Replies: @Achmed E. Newman, @Bill P

    I know more about the CCP’s dicked-up attempt at information control than Ron Unz does, and I agree with you here, but:

    Shed no tears for Zerohedge, Wren. They’ve lost their focus on global financial matters, they’ve nearly hidden the comments which used to be the best part of the site, it’s full of ads that make the page jump around like a Mexican jumping bean for 2 minutes before you can read, but worstly, “Tyler Durden” has quit the fight club and become a simpering pussy on the subject of the Kung Flu – see Peak Stupidity“s “Et tu, Tyler?”

    • Agree: Father O'Hara, Dano
    • Replies: @onetwothree
    @Achmed E. Newman

    The comments on zerohedge are maybe the worst on the internet. Just pure copy-paste rubbish.

    Replies: @Achmed E. Newman, @Dano, @Twodees Partain

    , @wren
    @Achmed E. Newman

    I still enjoy the alternative media selection I get at zerohedge, but sometimes do feel that it is surely funded by Putin. They disappointed me when they yanked a pro-Russian post that turned out to be fake news at best and perhaps pure propaganda at worst. Down the memory hole altogether.

    During this crisis I have really enjoyed chinese (and Uyghur) users on Twitter. Lots of insights.

    For example, today, "Harry Chen, PhD" was explaining his theory about how the virus got into all the nooks and crannies in North America, and it made sense based on my own personal experience here in my provincial neck of the woods.


    Yes, but significant percentages of Canada's population live in rural areas which were visited by asian city folk during the great mask/sanitizer buy...now look, anywhere near a major city, cases popping up...this is how it always starts
     

    Replies: @The Wild Geese Howard

    , @Peter D. Bredon
    @Achmed E. Newman

    "they’ve nearly hidden the comments which used to be the best part of the site,"

    Um, you press a button labeled "comments".

    "it’s full of ads that make the page jump around like a Mexican jumping bean for 2 minutes before you can read"

    Switch to Brave as your browser like the rest of us cool kids and the ads disappear.

    Next question?

    Replies: @Achmed E. Newman

  18. A break from Chinese COVID:

    https://www.baltimoresun.com/maryland/baltimore-city/bs-md-ci-population-estimates-20200326-nebck2k2anbwrcfsbknphsfgwi-story.html

    I lived in Baltimore for almost four years. I love the city but not what it’s become.

    • Replies: @Coemgen
    @Percy Gryce

    Are you saying Baltimore is the Wire?

    , @Harry Baldwin
    @Percy Gryce

    Have Baltimore gangbangers honored the mayor's plea to stop shooting each other so hospital beds will be available to COVID-19 victims? Really curious how that went over.

  19. @R.G. Camara
    Which is why I've been patient with Trump about building the wall/draining the swamp. It's wearing thin, but its stll there.

    Trump modus operandi in building is not piecemeal. He waits, waits, waits for the right opportunity, and then springs it all at once, full steam ahead. He's not a typical pol, with their slow rollouts and piecemeal death-by-a-thousand-cuts method. He hypes his projects up to the moon, but makes no definitive move till every piece is in place.

    Heck, this is how he ran for president. He made noise about running for decades, but waited until the perfect moment to actually do it: an opposing candidate with huge negatives (Hillary), a weak primary field (!Jeb!, Marco, Lyin' Ted, etc.), a foolproof method of getting his message out past network censors (his hugely popular Twitter feed, which was big before he ran), a few populist issues to run on (immigration, nationalism) and a change election for the opposing party (Obama was less popular than polls suggested, Bradley effect, as the 2012 turnout for him was less than 2008).

    So why would he change his methods now?

    The Wuhan flu is a huge monkey wrench, but I fully expect Trump to pull a real, actual October surprise.

    Replies: @Charon, @MEH 0910, @Sam Haysom, @ben tillman

    Knock Trump all you want, people! He’s not only getting Mexicans to pay for the Wall, he’s getting them to build it!

    https://nypost.com/2020/03/26/mexican-protesters-block-border-crossing-over-coronavirus/

  20. @anonguy
    @Thomas


    But now, with an actual crisis, the shift to “wartime President” may not be proving all that effective.
     
    One of his ongoing bits was that he could be as presidential as the most presidential president, in his estimation, Lincoln, but we would all be bored.

    When this virus stuff started, I thought, ok dude, here is your chance and he has never missed an opportunity to miss an opportunity.

    IMO at least as much of it to mental decline due to aging as mendacity, etc. He's supposedly an OCD germophobe, for cryin' out loud.

    Gerontocracy, like obesity, we have so much of it around it has become normalized and we fail to see it.

    LIke the Daily Mail articles popping up now about "fit and healthy" people with no comorbidities dyijng in their 30s/40s but you look at the pics and the individual is clearly quite overweight.

    Replies: @Louis Renault, @The Last Real Calvinist, @black sea, @Kratoklastes

    You go to war with the Deep State and career professionals you have, not the ones you want.

    • Replies: @anonguy
    @Louis Renault

    Complete non sequituir.

    I can't imagine what I wrote that would have inspired a response like that.

    Nothing was said about my preferences.

    Rhetoric like this, not majorly but not insubstantially either, of why I stopped commenting on iSteve.

    If Steve didn't seemingly get paid by the comment he'd filter this sort of zero SNR stuff.

  21. @trelane
    @Ron Unz

    For decades, America government and society has become more [...] incompetent,

    I cannot believe the Chinese will not notice this, that Western powers are in fact enfeebled by their unmeritocratic public and private institutions (e.g., the CDC which dropped the ball and has been on the sidelines, ineffectual ever since).

    Replies: @Louis Renault, @BenKenobi, @Anonymous

    Who was it that used to drive Senator Feinstein around? How long has China been infiltrating ‘elite’ universities here?
    https://www.justice.gov/opa/pr/harvard-university-professor-and-two-chinese-nationals-charged-three-separate-china-related

    • Replies: @Alice
    @Louis Renault

    over 25 years. Before Sept 11. Do you know who Wen Ho Lee is?

    They syarting sending grad students here in the 80s and 90s, men and women on the sciences and engineering. Both attained a academic positions, and the women married non Asian academics as well. They stole routinely, transferring IP to chinese universities and military. They also work on every tech company in the US doing the same.

    But recently China skipped all that, pushing high school students into US schools in the 00s. They began their persuasion program to encourage Chinese language programs and happy Chinese culture influence programs.

    Even more recently they just bribe Americans.

    Replies: @PiltdownMan

    , @danand
    @Louis Renault

    Mr.Renault, are you implying that the good doctor Lieber may be the evil Wuhan Coronaman? What a guy; wonder if he did what he done did for political/philosophical reasons, or was it all just about the Benjamins?


    According to court documents, since 2008, Dr. Lieber who has served as the Principal Investigator of the Lieber Research Group at Harvard University, which specialized in the area of nanoscience, has received more than $15,000,000 in grant funding from the National Institutes of Health (NIH) and Department of Defense (DOD). These grants require the disclosure of significant foreign financial conflicts of interest, including financial support from foreign governments or foreign entities. Unbeknownst to Harvard University beginning in 2011, Lieber became a “Strategic Scientist” at Wuhan University of Technology (WUT) in China and was a contractual participant in China’s Thousand Talents Plan from in or about 2012 to 2017.

    Under the terms of Lieber’s three-year Thousand Talents contract, WUT paid Lieber $50,000 USD per month, living expenses of up to 1,000,000 Chinese Yuan (approximately $158,000 USD at the time) and awarded him more than $1.5 million to establish a research lab at WUT.
     
    https://flic.kr/p/2iJ8pU9

    Replies: @Louis Renault

    , @Twodees Partain
    @Louis Renault

    Yeah, when I read about Difi's Chinese driver, I thought, "Typical politician. Even the guy who pumps gas knows that Chinese can't drive".

  22. Pessimists experience less disappointment. Wake up each morning and consider all that can go terribly wrong. Chances are the day won’t be quite that bad. So you go bed feeling a bit more content.

    Unwarranted optimism can be quite dangerous.

    • Agree: dfordoom
    • Replies: @Harry Baldwin
    @Thea

    AS Svetlana Kirilenko, the one-legged Russian nurse on The Sopranos put it, "That's the trouble with you Americans: you expect nothing bad ever to happen, when the rest of the world expect only bad to happen -- and they are not disappointed."

    , @Uilleam yr Alban
    @Thea

    No, pessimists experience more disappointment. While they "consider all that can go terribly wrong," they live through various pains that will never occur.

  23. Anonymous[115] • Disclaimer says:

    The problem with the HBD crowd is they don’t have any loyalty to us. It’s almost a borderline sociopathic mentality. They’re interested in what you have to offer in terms of IQ and traits, but that’s about it.

    So concepts of loyalty to a particular group is alien to them. They tend toward the “civic nationalist“ approach. They don’t mind if you’re replaced, as long as the new person has a solid IQ.

    As you can see, they do spaz out about their own personal health. But the health of their people doesn’t rank so high.

    • Agree: utu
  24. Interesting I’m an enterpeneur in Britain and this reminds me of myself (if I say so myself). I’m a relentless optimist.

    On the other hand my wife (who’s a STEM researcher) is a hyper-rationalist.

    My hunch is that my sky-castles that have materialised are because they’ve been rather relentlessly tested.

    I suspect Boris Johnson & Donald Trump suffer from the fact that they have no one to temper their manic optimism and hence why they’ve so badly misplayed this COVID-19 crisis.

    • Replies: @James J. O'Meara
    @Xerxes the Magian

    "Badly misplayed"

    Meaning, approval of handling =60%, personal approval = highest ever.

    A few more such "misplays" and he could be in real trouble.

  25. Here is an insightful 2016 book review of Trump’s 1988 memoir Trump: The Art of the Deal by Scott Alexander,

    That’s when he was pitching for the KC Royals, right? Pretty cool he had time to read Trump’s book and write a review.

    • Replies: @njguy73
    @anon

    Good one. But seriously, Doyle Alexander was with the Tigers then, having gone 9-0 down the stretch the previous year. Yeah, they had to give up some Double-A pitcher...

    Replies: @ScarletNumber

    , @MEH 0910
    @anon

    https://kronozio.blob.core.windows.net/images/card/99c44258449443688e7f2533feef2afa_front.jpg

    https://kronozio.blob.core.windows.net/images/card/99c44258449443688e7f2533feef2afa_back.jpg

  26. @trelane
    @Ron Unz

    For decades, America government and society has become more [...] incompetent,

    I cannot believe the Chinese will not notice this, that Western powers are in fact enfeebled by their unmeritocratic public and private institutions (e.g., the CDC which dropped the ball and has been on the sidelines, ineffectual ever since).

    Replies: @Louis Renault, @BenKenobi, @Anonymous

    that Western powers are in fact enfeebled by their unmeritocratic public and private institutions

    It took 100 years, but the process started by Trotsky’s cynical heart-bleeding for the “poor oppressed” American negro has been wildly successful.

  27. Anon[969] • Disclaimer says:

    Have you noticed the number of articles, blog posts, and tweets from progressives that discuss the balance between economic damage and the disease damage that popped up like mushrooms after Trump’s “Easter” statement? You always have to ask, “Genius three dimensional chess, or random recklessness?,” but somehow Trump always seems to surface things that nobody was talking about, but which are worth talking about. As usual, Trump’s specific idea is terrible, but he pushed the conversation in a useful direction.

  28. @R.G. Camara
    Which is why I've been patient with Trump about building the wall/draining the swamp. It's wearing thin, but its stll there.

    Trump modus operandi in building is not piecemeal. He waits, waits, waits for the right opportunity, and then springs it all at once, full steam ahead. He's not a typical pol, with their slow rollouts and piecemeal death-by-a-thousand-cuts method. He hypes his projects up to the moon, but makes no definitive move till every piece is in place.

    Heck, this is how he ran for president. He made noise about running for decades, but waited until the perfect moment to actually do it: an opposing candidate with huge negatives (Hillary), a weak primary field (!Jeb!, Marco, Lyin' Ted, etc.), a foolproof method of getting his message out past network censors (his hugely popular Twitter feed, which was big before he ran), a few populist issues to run on (immigration, nationalism) and a change election for the opposing party (Obama was less popular than polls suggested, Bradley effect, as the 2012 turnout for him was less than 2008).

    So why would he change his methods now?

    The Wuhan flu is a huge monkey wrench, but I fully expect Trump to pull a real, actual October surprise.

    Replies: @Charon, @MEH 0910, @Sam Haysom, @ben tillman

    Which is why I’ve been patient with Trump about building the wall/draining the swamp. It’s wearing thin, but its stll there.

    Airplane – give 20 more minutes

  29. I’m not a fan of the forced quarantines or the giant bailout, but am I really to believe anything would’ve been better if Obama or W were leading this shitshow of panic that has swept the nation?

    Never mind Obama and W, just imagine if Hillary was leading this shitshow. Can you even contemplate what horrors such a fate would encompass?

    Donald Trump is a sure sign that God still loves us and hasn’t abandoned His creation.

    • Agree: Dano
    • Replies: @Peter Akuleyev
    @Intelligent Dasein

    Clinton would have at least left competent professional administrators in place, there would have been a pandemia response plan and the CDC and FDA would not be run by bootlickers trying to curry favor with the Leader. Trump decided to destroy the Federal government precisely at the moment we actually needed it for something.

    Replies: @Anonymous, @Pericles, @Jenner Ickham Errican, @res

    , @Corn
    @Intelligent Dasein

    If Obama or Hillary were in charge the travel bans would have been issued yesterday, if we were lucky.

    Can’t look ray-ciss.

    , @Je Suis Omar Mateen
    @Intelligent Dasein

    "Never mind Obama and W, just imagine if Hillary was leading this shitshow. Can you even contemplate what horrors such a fate would encompass?"

    None. Only international news geeks would follow this obscure virus that killed a few thousand frail geezers. America's fakestream media would ignore it for the most part. No shutdowns, no $2 trillion printopaloozas.

    Replies: @Ron Mexico

  30. Trump isn’t delusional, the freak out crowd is. No one who pushes this hysteria can explain why a “pandemic” that kills less than the Hong Kong Flu did in 1968 warrants this reaction.

    I think a certain type of nerd gets off on ‘end of the world’ scenarios. Asteroid collisions, volcanoes, pandemics, peak oil, etc, etc. It’s a chance to let their nerd skills shine.

    Ya heard about exponential growth? See, you start with a penny and double it each day …

    • Replies: @Corn
    @RichardTaylor

    “I think a certain type of nerd gets off on ‘end of the world’ scenarios. Asteroid collisions, volcanoes, pandemics, peak oil, etc, etc. It’s a chance to let their nerd skills shine.”

    Ramzpaul has been talking about this. Certain groups are hoping for the Wu Flu to be disastrous. Right wing survivalist types would like to see this virus collapse America so they could leave their basements and bunkers and take charge. Hard lefties hope for the worst case scenarios to come true too, thinking it will discredit Trump, the right, etc. Then they can bring the socialist revolution to American shores.

    When this is all said and done most likely, we’ll be clanking along, just dealing with the same old shit.

    Replies: @The Wild Geese Howard

  31. @Achmed E. Newman
    @wren

    I know more about the CCP's dicked-up attempt at information control than Ron Unz does, and I agree with you here, but:

    Shed no tears for Zerohedge, Wren. They've lost their focus on global financial matters, they've nearly hidden the comments which used to be the best part of the site, it's full of ads that make the page jump around like a Mexican jumping bean for 2 minutes before you can read, but worstly, "Tyler Durden" has quit the fight club and become a simpering pussy on the subject of the Kung Flu - see Peak Stupidity"s "Et tu, Tyler?"

    Replies: @onetwothree, @wren, @Peter D. Bredon

    The comments on zerohedge are maybe the worst on the internet. Just pure copy-paste rubbish.

    • Replies: @Achmed E. Newman
    @onetwothree

    Not in 2012, that wasn't the case. Of course, I was younger then so had different tastes probably. Even now there are some of the old-timers still commenting on ZH that are very entertaining.

    , @Dano
    @onetwothree

    Yes, but the USED to be hilarious! Really great stuff but I think one Leftist dork has about forty aliases and has ruined it.

    , @Twodees Partain
    @onetwothree

    That describes the Tyler articles as well.

  32. @Ron Unz
    Well, I'll take the liberty of republishing part of a comment I left on one of the earliest iSteve/Coronavirus posts almost exactly two weeks ago:

    Well, I’ve often pointed out the negative consequences of having a country run by its Ministry of Propaganda.

    For decades, America government and society has become more and more crazy and incompetent, with that reality concealed by our ever more sweeping propaganda. But since the Coronavirus doesn’t pay attention to the MSM, we’ll soon find out the consequences of that strategy.
     
    The biggest problem with the Coronavirus is that you can't deplatform it from Twitter when it does things you don't like...

    Replies: @wren, @trelane, @JimDandy, @Dieter Kief, @John Burns, Gettysburg Partisan, @UK, @Forbes, @dfordoom

    An extreme segregation of the elderly and other high-risk people seems like the key to me–not just for their own sakes, but to keep the system from getting overwhelmed.

    • Replies: @BB753
    @JimDandy

    You can't do that. Boomers still believe they're young. They won't comply if you call them "elderly".

    Replies: @JimDandy, @tbmcc

    , @anon
    @JimDandy

    "Of course the problem is not solved. As long as people can be judged by the color of their skin, the problem’s not solved. As long as there are people who still… And there’s a whole generation — I said this for apartheid South Africa, I said this for my own community in the South — there are still generations of people, older people, who were born and bred and marinated in it, in that prejudice and racism, and they just have to die."

    https://www.snopes.com/fact-check/oprah-winfrey-old-white-people-have-to-die/

    I love copy and paste sometimes.

  33. Anonymous[921] • Disclaimer says:
    @Dano
    And let me also say the blurb Steve quoted, shows the author has literally NO IDEA about business. No clue whatsoever how a commercial real estate loan is put together. Truly a first-grade level of understanding. Pathetic is WAY too nice a word in describing what Scott Alexander wrote. Infantile in its description. Complete, total Hollywood level of stupidity. If anyone, and I mean even the half-wits at HuffPo, considers what Alexander wrote to be even a minuscule of accuracy is fooling themselves.

    Two words: Good God...

    Replies: @Anonymous, @ScarletNumber

    Instead of typing a whole paragraph just to say “that’s dumb,” why not share your specific issues with what Alexander wrote?

    • Agree: Harry Baldwin
    • Replies: @Dano
    @Anonymous

    Well It would take a lot of space and bore people but here is one: You cannot get a loan of $100 million with out SUBSTANTIAL equity in the project, at least $15 million, and CLEAR and DEMONSTRABLE expertise and experience in that type real estate.

  34. Anonymous[397] • Disclaimer says:
    @Coemgen
    I've long been wondering why Trump picked Mike Pence as his "lieutenant." Of course, he has his Christian creds but he's another "not so great" at teleprompter reading. Yet, he's been fantastic as Dr Pence during this pandemic. His bedside manner is world-class.

    Winning again!

    Of course, real winning will be if Trump get $1,000,000,000,000 to spend any way he wants.

    Replies: @Anonymous, @R.G. Camara, @ScarletNumber, @Realist

    I’ve long been wondering why Trump picked Mike Pence as his “lieutenant.” Of course, he has his Christian creds but he’s another “not so great” at teleprompter reading. Yet, he’s been fantastic as Dr Pence during this pandemic. His bedside manner is world-class.

    Don’t forget, President Trump is a boomer. Boomers work under the same cultural references only they can understand. Consequently, he picked Pence simply because of his uncanny resemblance to Race Bannon.

    Pence’s job, like Bannon’s, is to protect President Trump from would-be World dominators, and terror-minded thieves.

    Hope this helps.

    • Replies: @Harry Baldwin
    @Anonymous

    he picked Pence simply because of his uncanny resemblance to Race Bannon.

    Good point, but it doesn't explain why he fired Steve ACTUAL Bannon.

    Replies: @anonymous

  35. @Louis Renault
    @anonguy

    You go to war with the Deep State and career professionals you have, not the ones you want.

    Replies: @anonguy

    Complete non sequituir.

    I can’t imagine what I wrote that would have inspired a response like that.

    Nothing was said about my preferences.

    Rhetoric like this, not majorly but not insubstantially either, of why I stopped commenting on iSteve.

    If Steve didn’t seemingly get paid by the comment he’d filter this sort of zero SNR stuff.

  36. For goodness sake, Trump is the greatest President since Andrew Jackson. The hurdles he’s faced would make Hercules balk, yet on he goes. And for what? Massive media hate 24×7.

    Trump is astonishing. Most of America simply doesn’t deserve him. If you think ANYONE on the American political landscape would have handled things better than Trump has, then you’re delusional. It’s literally Trump alone between all of you and the globalist abyss. Show some freaking respect.

  37. @Federalist

    So when there is bad news, don’t expect him to convey very vividly what it is.

    Your health may depend upon you keeping this in mind.
     
    For Christ's sake. Could you be any more melodramatic? Stop being a cowardly old woman and live your life for however long you have left.

    Replies: @MEH 0910, @David Davenport, @MEH 0910

    Do you understand the responsibility that Steve bears for other peoples lives? Steve singlehandedly elected Trump president.

    https://nymag.com/intelligencer/2017/04/steve-sailer-invented-identity-politics-for-the-alt-right.html

    • Replies: @ScarletNumber
    @MEH 0910

    Well with an assist from Ann Coulter.

    , @Dano
    @MEH 0910

    Ah, that's when Steve was THINKING...

  38. @anonguy
    @Thomas


    But now, with an actual crisis, the shift to “wartime President” may not be proving all that effective.
     
    One of his ongoing bits was that he could be as presidential as the most presidential president, in his estimation, Lincoln, but we would all be bored.

    When this virus stuff started, I thought, ok dude, here is your chance and he has never missed an opportunity to miss an opportunity.

    IMO at least as much of it to mental decline due to aging as mendacity, etc. He's supposedly an OCD germophobe, for cryin' out loud.

    Gerontocracy, like obesity, we have so much of it around it has become normalized and we fail to see it.

    LIke the Daily Mail articles popping up now about "fit and healthy" people with no comorbidities dyijng in their 30s/40s but you look at the pics and the individual is clearly quite overweight.

    Replies: @Louis Renault, @The Last Real Calvinist, @black sea, @Kratoklastes

    LIke the Daily Mail articles popping up now about “fit and healthy” people with no comorbidities dyijng in their 30s/40s but you look at the pics and the individual is clearly quite overweight.

    It’s seemed obvious for the past couple of weeks that the DM is launching fusillades of scare stories, maybe to try to get their readers to comply with the UK social distancing mandates. If so, it works. I have a couple of British friends who scorn the DM if you mention it, but who never the less read it, and who end up talking obsessively about these outlier worst-case scenarios as if they’re already common amongst healthy members of the population.

    Or it could just be the DM’s rather florid and emotion-driven general approach shining through under crisis conditions.

    • Replies: @utu
    @The Last Real Calvinist

    Who reads the papers?
    https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=DGscoaUWW2M

    , @anonguy
    @The Last Real Calvinist

    Or it could be the leading edge of a predicted trend, that higher than Chinese BMI among younger Westerners would drive up the severity of the disease among the young in the West.

    As Steve commented today (and I did on March 14), we don't know everything about this disease, including, most importantly, long term effects even if initial symptoms are mild.

    And Fauci today gave much credence to the notion of Antibody Dependent Enhancement (ADE), a possibility that has been noted and discussed since January.

    Unknown unknowns abound in a situation like this. It is a central characteristic of novel diseases and a substantial part of what makes them so disruptive in proportion to their raw biological impact, i.e, mortality, incapacitation.

  39. @Achmed E. Newman
    @wren

    I know more about the CCP's dicked-up attempt at information control than Ron Unz does, and I agree with you here, but:

    Shed no tears for Zerohedge, Wren. They've lost their focus on global financial matters, they've nearly hidden the comments which used to be the best part of the site, it's full of ads that make the page jump around like a Mexican jumping bean for 2 minutes before you can read, but worstly, "Tyler Durden" has quit the fight club and become a simpering pussy on the subject of the Kung Flu - see Peak Stupidity"s "Et tu, Tyler?"

    Replies: @onetwothree, @wren, @Peter D. Bredon

    I still enjoy the alternative media selection I get at zerohedge, but sometimes do feel that it is surely funded by Putin. They disappointed me when they yanked a pro-Russian post that turned out to be fake news at best and perhaps pure propaganda at worst. Down the memory hole altogether.

    During this crisis I have really enjoyed chinese (and Uyghur) users on Twitter. Lots of insights.

    For example, today, “Harry Chen, PhD” was explaining his theory about how the virus got into all the nooks and crannies in North America, and it made sense based on my own personal experience here in my provincial neck of the woods.

    Yes, but significant percentages of Canada’s population live in rural areas which were visited by asian city folk during the great mask/sanitizer buy…now look, anywhere near a major city, cases popping up…this is how it always starts

    • Replies: @The Wild Geese Howard
    @wren


    For example, today, “Harry Chen, PhD” was explaining his theory about how the virus got into all the nooks and crannies in North America, and it made sense based on my own personal experience here in my provincial neck of the woods.
     
    Smartphone location data from a single beach in FL and NYC shows us plenty of vectors for this or any other virus to travel around:

    https://www.dailydot.com/debug/cellphone-heat-map-coronavirus/
  40. @anonguy
    Trump has served his historical purpose, which was to be the epic troll for the national establishment, blue and red.

    Plus, he has inadvertently united the country, at least the part with shred of humanity, behind the notion of not dying for wall street.

    General Strike is rumbling in background, let's see where that goes as we continue to hear crickets from our billionaire class.

    Trump is a tired man now and his mental acuity has slipped. Various theories surrounding his unscheduled WRAMC visit last November seem within realm of credibility.

    Like some small strokes that have left him functional, just a little stubborn and set in his ways. Used to be considered a common consequence of aging.

    He's not of the mental powers he had on campaign trail in 2016, that is obvious to any careful observer IMO.

    His apparent need for all the Dear Leader adulation by subordinates in press conferences is another sign of decline.

    Replies: @Kronos, @Pericles, @TrudeauSux, @William Badwhite, @Escher

    Like some small strokes that have left him functional, just a little stubborn and set in his ways. Used to be considered a common consequence of aging.

    Please keep in mind that he’s been on a war-footing since the 2015 Republican Primaries. Jeez, I’m exhausted just recalling the last five years and I’m fairly young and not in public office. He has to contend against neoliberal Democrats and backstabbing Neocons. He’s navigated the whole thing extremely well. He and Bernie Sanders are the most energetic old timers I know. (I likely would’ve died from a heart attack already if President. Likely from using hookers and meth like JFK.) So between navigating a presidential race and managing Covid 19/Great Depression 2.0 I understand he’s a bit tired.

    • Agree: wren
    • Replies: @anonguy
    @Kronos

    Nothing in your comment is inconsistent with anything in mine, so it is unclear why you clicked the disagree button.

    Replies: @Kronos

    , @anon
    @Kronos

    Nice use of the Warhammer 40k motif.

    , @Uilleam yr Alban
    @Kronos

    Exactly. Given his nonstop siege by the entire Permanent Establishment for four years now, Trump's mental fortitude approaches the superhuman.

  41. Trump is good at conveying good news, but not good at conveying bad news. So when there is bad news, don’t expect him to convey very vividly what it is.

    Your health may depend upon you keeping this in mind.

    Thank you for making it clear! Trump views the ‘recession problem’ as people believing there will be a recession and therefore it is his job as a developer to convince everyone to believe there won’t be a recession.

    As a developer he should have an understanding of some of the characteristics of TVM (time value of money) but I doubt he thinks long term; only looks at short term possibilities where a capital cost is converted into debt service, or an investment become an income stream. He probably understands that with higher interest rates future money is less valuable, but I doubt he can grasp exponentials at all, and certainly not with exponential growth, namely lag phase (when travelors were infecting everyone and the government did nothing), log phase (straight line on a semilog plot – i.e. exponential growth), declining growth when Ro is reduced, and then decline when people stop being ill either through health or death.

    I fully expect him to proclaim victory during the naturally occurring decline phase regardless of how many Americans have died.

    However

    The point of this ramble on is to stress that we can go to Johns Hopkins coronavirus dashboard and collect our own data, then use a suitable means to graph log of new cases versus time, and decide for ourselve what’s what.

    I did that. What’s what is that we are just barely emerging from lag phase and transitioning into log growth even as mitigation is starting to happen.

    A key metric will be number of hospital beds versus number needing hospital care.

    • Replies: @ThreeCranes
    @James Speaks

    “ What’s what is that we are just barely emerging from lag phase and transitioning into log growth even as mitigation is starting to happen.”

    This is precisely it.

    For those who don’t want to wade through the math, just go the e.g. DailyMail and peruse the graphs of the growth of the cases of incidence and death in China, Italy, USA and the world.

    Now, in your mind’s eye, move the graphs of the USA and world over and superimpose them on the graphs of China and Italy. See where they coincide? We are currently transitioning from the slow ramping up stage into the exponential growth stage.

    Those who blithely predict that we have weathered the storm and should drop all counter measures, are whistling past the graveyard.

    https://www.dailymail.co.uk/news/article-8157963/US-coronavirus-cases-world.html

  42. As best I can tell, the developer’s job is coordination.

    As is a banker’s, a politician’s, a store manager’s, a factory manager’s, a salesman’s…

    What else is new?

  43. @Dano
    Someone, please....get Steve a drink. Make it a big one.
    Here's a guy who should be shredding the hysteria...buying into it?
    Please Steve, turn off your TV.

    Replies: @scrivener3, @Kronos, @JimDandy, @Mike1

    I am surprised Steve is going all in on this.

    Reading the data coming in is hard. Several young doctors die. Did that happen in any other epidemic? I can’t remember and do not know.

    I do know there is major panic. When the top health official of NJ says he/she will get it, everyone in NJ will get it… well. . . that has never happened before in recorded history. One hundred percent of a given population has never acquired an infectious agent.

    The lamestream media decides what is news and if they look in a nation of 800 million people they will find lots of confirmation bias stories. A man standing in front of a deli, said to be a doctor at “a” hospital says it is a war zone never seen anything like it.Is that persona doctor? has the media vetted his claim? Will he give his name? Haven’t seen that yet.

  44. @Dano
    Someone, please....get Steve a drink. Make it a big one.
    Here's a guy who should be shredding the hysteria...buying into it?
    Please Steve, turn off your TV.

    Replies: @scrivener3, @Kronos, @JimDandy, @Mike1

    Steve, you have a favorite drink?

    • Replies: @Father O'Hara
    @Kronos

    Race denialists' tears?

    Replies: @Kronos

  45. @Polynikes
    The President’s job really is just coordination (mostly of the states and their representatives under a federalism framework) and leadership (mostly in foreign relations). Trump is out here holding hour long press conferences everyday with multiple actors and experts—meanwhile Joe Biden struggles to get through a 5 min teleconference. He’s largely left the governors of each state to handle each state differently, although many have taken the lead from the feds. The amount of force to get people to social distance in crowded NYC and sparsely populated Wyoming are quite different, after all.

    I’m not a fan of the forced quarantines or the giant bailout, but am I really to believe anything would’ve been better if Obama or W were leading this shitshow of panic that has swept the nation?

    Replies: @Rob (London), @grim prognosis, @Pericles

    Either of those presidents would at least have had a pandemic prevention unit to call on. Trump in his infinite wisdom decided that because there wasn’t a pandemic happening at the time, it wasn’t needed.

    • Replies: @wren
    @Rob (London)

    My understanding is that that is a "fake news" talking point.

    https://legalinsurrection.com/2020/03/media-hoaxes-no-trump-did-not-disband-wh-pandemic-office-cut-cdc-work-from-49-to-10-countries-or-refuse-who-testing-kits/

    The people were still there in the NSC.

    , @Harry Baldwin
    @Rob (London)

    Yes, of course! The key to solving any problem is to create a government agency full of bureaucrats charged with solving that problem. When has that ever failed us?

    Replies: @Achmed E. Newman, @Rob (LM)

    , @ben tillman
    @Rob (London)

    Fake news.

  46. @Percy Gryce
    A break from Chinese COVID:

    https://www.baltimoresun.com/maryland/baltimore-city/bs-md-ci-population-estimates-20200326-nebck2k2anbwrcfsbknphsfgwi-story.html

    I lived in Baltimore for almost four years. I love the city but not what it's become.

    Replies: @Coemgen, @Harry Baldwin

    Are you saying Baltimore is the Wire?

  47. @newrouter
    >I started the book with the question: what exactly do real estate developers do? <

    They have an idea of how to transform a parcel of real estate from its current condition into something more profitable. The rest is just details.

    Replies: @newrouter, @James J. O'Meara

    grammar update: >The rest “are” just details.< The rest is plural no?

    • Replies: @black sea
    @newrouter

    It depends on whether that to which "the rest" refers is a non-count or plural noun.

    The rest of the money in the bank is sufficient.

    The rest of the cars on the lot are blue.


    In the case of your sentence, I don't think its exactly clear what the rest" refers to.


    The rest [of the stuff the developer does] is just details.

    The rest [of the activities the developer undertakes] are just details.

    The rest is silence.

    , @Kim
    @newrouter

    Agreements between verbs and their subjects are a matter of perspective when the subject can be regarded either as a single unit or as a number of members.


    Thus "The team is..." and "The team are..." are both acceptable, and similarly for "The rest...". "The rest is history." Vs "The rest are of no value."

  48. @Kronos
    @anonguy


    Like some small strokes that have left him functional, just a little stubborn and set in his ways. Used to be considered a common consequence of aging.
     
    Please keep in mind that he’s been on a war-footing since the 2015 Republican Primaries. Jeez, I’m exhausted just recalling the last five years and I’m fairly young and not in public office. He has to contend against neoliberal Democrats and backstabbing Neocons. He’s navigated the whole thing extremely well. He and Bernie Sanders are the most energetic old timers I know. (I likely would’ve died from a heart attack already if President. Likely from using hookers and meth like JFK.) So between navigating a presidential race and managing Covid 19/Great Depression 2.0 I understand he’s a bit tired.

    http://www.angelfire.com/mech/jinsaotome/JinsDangerousToys2/EmperorTrump_001.JPG

    Replies: @anonguy, @anon, @Uilleam yr Alban

    Nothing in your comment is inconsistent with anything in mine, so it is unclear why you clicked the disagree button.

    • Replies: @Kronos
    @anonguy

    To my (public) knowledge Trump hasn’t suffered any strokes and any fatigue is likely work related. Biden appears to be a much more likely candidate for mini stroke cognitive decline. The media/Democratic complex is always searching for any medical rational for removing Trump from the Presidency while many comments from Biden would give anyone pause. True, both are at an age when such medical occurrences are high but I don’t see it. Of course, the slip ups from Biden and Sanders could be attributed to campaign fatigue and insomnia as well.

    https://www.newsweek.com/discussing-coronavirus-response-sanders-accidentally-calls-it-ebola-biden-accidentally-calls-it-1492425

    Replies: @anonguy

  49. @The Last Real Calvinist
    @anonguy


    LIke the Daily Mail articles popping up now about “fit and healthy” people with no comorbidities dyijng in their 30s/40s but you look at the pics and the individual is clearly quite overweight.

     

    It's seemed obvious for the past couple of weeks that the DM is launching fusillades of scare stories, maybe to try to get their readers to comply with the UK social distancing mandates. If so, it works. I have a couple of British friends who scorn the DM if you mention it, but who never the less read it, and who end up talking obsessively about these outlier worst-case scenarios as if they're already common amongst healthy members of the population.

    Or it could just be the DM's rather florid and emotion-driven general approach shining through under crisis conditions.

    Replies: @utu, @anonguy

    Who reads the papers?

  50. Anonymous[908] • Disclaimer says:
    @trelane
    @Ron Unz

    For decades, America government and society has become more [...] incompetent,

    I cannot believe the Chinese will not notice this, that Western powers are in fact enfeebled by their unmeritocratic public and private institutions (e.g., the CDC which dropped the ball and has been on the sidelines, ineffectual ever since).

    Replies: @Louis Renault, @BenKenobi, @Anonymous

  51. Anonymous[367] • Disclaimer says:

    Dems celebrating

    • Agree: Houston 1992
  52. @The Last Real Calvinist
    @anonguy


    LIke the Daily Mail articles popping up now about “fit and healthy” people with no comorbidities dyijng in their 30s/40s but you look at the pics and the individual is clearly quite overweight.

     

    It's seemed obvious for the past couple of weeks that the DM is launching fusillades of scare stories, maybe to try to get their readers to comply with the UK social distancing mandates. If so, it works. I have a couple of British friends who scorn the DM if you mention it, but who never the less read it, and who end up talking obsessively about these outlier worst-case scenarios as if they're already common amongst healthy members of the population.

    Or it could just be the DM's rather florid and emotion-driven general approach shining through under crisis conditions.

    Replies: @utu, @anonguy

    Or it could be the leading edge of a predicted trend, that higher than Chinese BMI among younger Westerners would drive up the severity of the disease among the young in the West.

    As Steve commented today (and I did on March 14), we don’t know everything about this disease, including, most importantly, long term effects even if initial symptoms are mild.

    And Fauci today gave much credence to the notion of Antibody Dependent Enhancement (ADE), a possibility that has been noted and discussed since January.

    Unknown unknowns abound in a situation like this. It is a central characteristic of novel diseases and a substantial part of what makes them so disruptive in proportion to their raw biological impact, i.e, mortality, incapacitation.

  53. @R.G. Camara
    Which is why I've been patient with Trump about building the wall/draining the swamp. It's wearing thin, but its stll there.

    Trump modus operandi in building is not piecemeal. He waits, waits, waits for the right opportunity, and then springs it all at once, full steam ahead. He's not a typical pol, with their slow rollouts and piecemeal death-by-a-thousand-cuts method. He hypes his projects up to the moon, but makes no definitive move till every piece is in place.

    Heck, this is how he ran for president. He made noise about running for decades, but waited until the perfect moment to actually do it: an opposing candidate with huge negatives (Hillary), a weak primary field (!Jeb!, Marco, Lyin' Ted, etc.), a foolproof method of getting his message out past network censors (his hugely popular Twitter feed, which was big before he ran), a few populist issues to run on (immigration, nationalism) and a change election for the opposing party (Obama was less popular than polls suggested, Bradley effect, as the 2012 turnout for him was less than 2008).

    So why would he change his methods now?

    The Wuhan flu is a huge monkey wrench, but I fully expect Trump to pull a real, actual October surprise.

    Replies: @Charon, @MEH 0910, @Sam Haysom, @ben tillman

    This is a very interesting analysis but 2016 was probably one of the most talented primary fields in at least my lifetime. Trump just outright destroyed Jeb and then ground down the rest of the candidates. For instance Jeb would locked up the 2012 nomination up by Super Tuesday. No one else would have diagnosed his glass jaw and attacked like Trump did.

    Conversely I think Romney was the one politician that could have ground Trump down and beat him in a primary. Romney’s best poltical skill was his ability to focus an attack and his most dangerous rival during a multi-candidate debate

    • Replies: @R.G. Camara
    @Sam Haysom

    !Jeb! was only strong if you bought into Neoclown/Neocommunist logic. That might've worked in the CLinton/Bush 43/Obama's 1st term, but by 2012 the holes were obvious to normies, and Trump exposed them and exploited such holes in 2016.

    Lyin' Ted is a great lawyer, and Marco as wily a Cuban Republican as we've seen in national politics, but, again, only if you think McCain and Bush 43 were "mavericks" and Romney was going to be for the little guy.

  54. That was very well said Steve. Thanks

  55. @Spangel
    Maybe Steve is wrong. Maybe the news is good.

    Replies: @Alice

    https://www.c-span.org/video/?470715-101/dr-deborah-birx-coronavirus-predictions-model-match-reality

    decide for yourself.
    Why isn’t Steve putting Birx up all the time?

  56. Politically speaking, I suspect is in much better shape now than he was a week or so ago. If the economy tanks, yeah that’s not really Trump’s fault, he ran into a global pandemic.

    He would have been blamed for the federal government response to the virus, except for the media and the opposition party have shown their feral nasty nature to the point where Trump actually looks statesmanlike by comparison. Specifically the refusal of the Senate Democrats, on the instigation of the House Democrats, to move forward (ie, advance to debate on the floor) with an emergency relief package that they had just negotiated with the Democrats. And many other things of a similar nature, though that one is the most prominent.

    This is not the last word on an election that’s scheduled for 7 months from now, of course, but a couple of weeks ago, I suspected Trump was dead in the water. Now, I don’t think he is.

    • Replies: @snorlax
    @Boethiuss


    a couple of weeks ago, I suspected Trump was dead in the water. Now, I don’t think he is.
     
    Oh no, here I was thinking Trump was in good shape until I saw you predicted the same.

    Replies: @Boethiuss

  57. @Percy Gryce
    A break from Chinese COVID:

    https://www.baltimoresun.com/maryland/baltimore-city/bs-md-ci-population-estimates-20200326-nebck2k2anbwrcfsbknphsfgwi-story.html

    I lived in Baltimore for almost four years. I love the city but not what it's become.

    Replies: @Coemgen, @Harry Baldwin

    Have Baltimore gangbangers honored the mayor’s plea to stop shooting each other so hospital beds will be available to COVID-19 victims? Really curious how that went over.

  58. @Louis Renault
    @trelane

    Who was it that used to drive Senator Feinstein around? How long has China been infiltrating 'elite' universities here?
    https://www.justice.gov/opa/pr/harvard-university-professor-and-two-chinese-nationals-charged-three-separate-china-related

    Replies: @Alice, @danand, @Twodees Partain

    over 25 years. Before Sept 11. Do you know who Wen Ho Lee is?

    They syarting sending grad students here in the 80s and 90s, men and women on the sciences and engineering. Both attained a academic positions, and the women married non Asian academics as well. They stole routinely, transferring IP to chinese universities and military. They also work on every tech company in the US doing the same.

    But recently China skipped all that, pushing high school students into US schools in the 00s. They began their persuasion program to encourage Chinese language programs and happy Chinese culture influence programs.

    Even more recently they just bribe Americans.

    • Replies: @PiltdownMan
    @Alice


    over 25 years. Before Sept 11. Do you know who Wen Ho Lee is?

    They syarting sending grad students here in the 80s and 90s, men and women on the sciences and engineering
     

    My first grad dorm roommate, in 1980, arrived without warning a few days after school started. He was a physics student from the People's Republic of China. He said he had been in a work and "education" camp in southern China since the early 1970s, having been pulled out of Beijing University and sent there. He was given a few days notice in the late in the summer of 1980 and told he was going to America, to resume his studies. A really nice guy.

    Replies: @Steve Sailer

  59. @Thea
    Pessimists experience less disappointment. Wake up each morning and consider all that can go terribly wrong. Chances are the day won’t be quite that bad. So you go bed feeling a bit more content.

    Unwarranted optimism can be quite dangerous.

    Replies: @Harry Baldwin, @Uilleam yr Alban

    AS Svetlana Kirilenko, the one-legged Russian nurse on The Sopranos put it, “That’s the trouble with you Americans: you expect nothing bad ever to happen, when the rest of the world expect only bad to happen — and they are not disappointed.”

  60. @Federalist

    So when there is bad news, don’t expect him to convey very vividly what it is.

    Your health may depend upon you keeping this in mind.
     
    For Christ's sake. Could you be any more melodramatic? Stop being a cowardly old woman and live your life for however long you have left.

    Replies: @MEH 0910, @David Davenport, @MEH 0910

    I agree with Federalist:

    For Christ’s sake. Could you be any more melodramatic? Stop being a cowardly old woman and live your life for however long you have left.

    Steve, I mean this seriously. You are disappointing me and other long time fans. Stop contributing to the Kung Fu Flu hysteria.

    –David Davenport

    • Troll: ThreeCranes
  61. Like many here, I completely disagree with Steve on this and have found it interesting how the skeptic community has broken up over this. Steve. JayMan, Claire Lehmann seem to think it’s fine to bankrupt the economy in the name of “Just One Less Death”, whereas Philippe, Ben SixSmith and others were worried at first but now worry we’ve overreacted. Others, like me, are pretty appalled at things like Claire Lehmann, High Priestess of Open Thought, approving Medium pulling that article, or Steve saying hey, we’ve already done the damage so let’s do more until we can see some benefit. And I’ve literally blocked Jay, he’s so obnoxious.

    But I shouldn’t be surprised at Steve; he has always valued ends over means. That’s not a cut; he just thinks pragmatically.

    In any event, he’s completely wrong on this. We’re hurting our younger generations so a bunch of health nuts and establishment worshipping media can get off on extreme reactions so they can feel heroic.

    • Agree: Testing12
    • Troll: ThreeCranes
    • Replies: @utu
    @education realist

    "Steve; he has always valued ends over means." - Kill old people to save economy is means over ends in your world?

    Replies: @education realist

    , @Testing12
    @education realist

    Consider that some of the bloggers and commenters who are freaking out about COVID also just by coincidence happen to be elderly and/or in poor health personally. So it seems they have bought into the MSM panic out of a sense of self interest and have suspended their usual level of skepticism towards flashing headlines, liberal talking heads, and skewed numbers.

    That's perfectly natural of course, but maybe after life returns to normal in a couple months they will pause to reflect on their own behavior during Corona-hysteria next time they mock a shallow "let's talk about me" nyt opinion piece. You would think this is the zombie apocalypse given some of the things I see written.

    , @Boethiuss
    @education realist


    Like many here, I completely disagree with Steve on this and have found it interesting how the skeptic community has broken up over this. Steve. JayMan, Claire Lehmann seem to think it’s fine to bankrupt the economy in the name of “Just One Less Death”, whereas Philippe, Ben SixSmith and others were worried at first but now worry we’ve overreacted. Others, like me, are pretty appalled at things like Claire Lehmann, High Priestess of Open Thought, approving Medium pulling that article, or Steve saying hey, we’ve already done the damage so let’s do more until we can see some benefit. And I’ve literally blocked Jay, he’s so obnoxious.
     
    I want to agree with you and I suspect in some world I do but right now the tradeoffs are so nebulous that it's hard to make intelligent choices.

    We can say that those teenagers going to spring break at Daytona was really stupid and that sort of thing ought to be banned or substantially discouraged. And at the same time, we should still have a little more freedom of action to work, and earn a living and do some important social activities. The thing is, I don't think anybody has a real good handle on where the dividing line ought to be, even for that matter to accurately describe the nature of the tradeoffs.

    Sometime, say in a week or a month maybe, we ought to have that. One way to read Steve, as I do (though not especially carefully), is to say that we shouldn't open up again until that happens. And to that extent, I think he's right.

    Replies: @education realist, @Neil Templeton

    , @Ron Unz
    @education realist


    Like many here, I completely disagree with Steve on this and have found it interesting how the skeptic community has broken up over this. Steve. JayMan, Claire Lehmann seem to think it’s fine to bankrupt the economy in the name of “Just One Less Death”, whereas Philippe, Ben SixSmith and others were worried at first but now worry we’ve overreacted.... And I’ve literally blocked Jay, he’s so obnoxious.
     
    Well, I'm vaguely familiar with Claire Lehmann, who's the editor of Quillette. But I don't spend my time on Twitter, so I don't have a clue who "Philippe" is. And what in the world is a "Ben SixSmith"?

    Offhand, it sounds like the divide may be between individuals who can do math and individuals who can't. For example, here's a graph someone just provided of the current exponential death-curve for New York:

    https://i.ibb.co/b610g3M/Graph0.png

    https://www.unz.com/runz/correctly-estimating-coronavirus-infections/#comment-3797732

    Replies: @education realist, @Kratoklastes, @Brás Cubas, @John Burns, Gettysburg Partisan, @Intelligent Dasein, @ThreeCranes, @keypusher

    , @Dave Pinsen
    @education realist


    Others, like me, are pretty appalled at things like Claire Lehmann, High Priestess of Open Thought, approving Medium pulling that article
     
    She said she didn't think Medium should have pulled it.

    https://twitter.com/clairlemon/status/1241609287899611136?s=20
    , @ben tillman
    @education realist


    Like many here, I completely disagree with Steve on this and have found it interesting how the skeptic community has broken up over this. Steve. JayMan, Claire Lehmann seem to think it’s fine to bankrupt the economy in the name of “Just One Less Death”, whereas Philippe, Ben SixSmith and others were worried at first but now worry we’ve overreacted. Others, like me, are pretty appalled at things like Claire Lehmann, High Priestess of Open Thought, approving Medium pulling that article, or Steve saying hey, we’ve already done the damage so let’s do more until we can see some benefit. And I’ve literally blocked Jay, he’s so obnoxious.
     
    What the hell are you talking about?
  62. @Polynikes
    The President’s job really is just coordination (mostly of the states and their representatives under a federalism framework) and leadership (mostly in foreign relations). Trump is out here holding hour long press conferences everyday with multiple actors and experts—meanwhile Joe Biden struggles to get through a 5 min teleconference. He’s largely left the governors of each state to handle each state differently, although many have taken the lead from the feds. The amount of force to get people to social distance in crowded NYC and sparsely populated Wyoming are quite different, after all.

    I’m not a fan of the forced quarantines or the giant bailout, but am I really to believe anything would’ve been better if Obama or W were leading this shitshow of panic that has swept the nation?

    Replies: @Rob (London), @grim prognosis, @Pericles

    He’s largely left the governors of each state to handle each state differently, although many have taken the lead from the feds.
    This is called “federalism”.

    • Agree: Hibernian, Polynikes
  63. Does the Gates Foundation handout fat grants for pandemic research? Could that explain some of the enthusiastic hype around this whole thing?

    I don’t mean a conspiracy. I just mean run-of-the-mill human greed. You’d want to be known as a researcher who took this thing seriously!

  64. @Coemgen
    I've long been wondering why Trump picked Mike Pence as his "lieutenant." Of course, he has his Christian creds but he's another "not so great" at teleprompter reading. Yet, he's been fantastic as Dr Pence during this pandemic. His bedside manner is world-class.

    Winning again!

    Of course, real winning will be if Trump get $1,000,000,000,000 to spend any way he wants.

    Replies: @Anonymous, @R.G. Camara, @ScarletNumber, @Realist

    Pence is one of those sober, somber, boring Washington-speakers that Trump cannot be. This was precisely the sort of situation Trump needed him for; while Trump projects excitement onto people (for good or for ill), Pence projects calm stoic boringness and yet also a well-informed manner, while Trump largely seems to be improv.

    Trump got Pence for the gravitas needed for bad situations where Trump’s excitement might be a hindrance. In a crisis, you want a boring, low-key guy as one of the public faces, because everyone calms down.

    • Replies: @Dave Pinsen
    @R.G. Camara

    Pence is a Dr. Early type.

    https://twitter.com/dpinsen/status/1241065760233062406?s=20

    Replies: @Corvinus

    , @Anonymous
    @R.G. Camara

    Almost presidential tone.

    , @Unladen Swallow
    @R.G. Camara

    Spot on, Trump is a great off the cuff public speaker, like the Rev. Jackson used to be, which works well on the campaign trail. Pence is rather dull in that role but appears very well informed and unflappable in a crisis situation, no question from the media seems to surprise him.

    Replies: @The Wild Geese Howard

    , @Twodees Partain
    @R.G. Camara

    Gravitas? To me Pence always looks as though he's having a gas attack and is trying to suppress its expression.

  65. @education realist
    Like many here, I completely disagree with Steve on this and have found it interesting how the skeptic community has broken up over this. Steve. JayMan, Claire Lehmann seem to think it's fine to bankrupt the economy in the name of "Just One Less Death", whereas Philippe, Ben SixSmith and others were worried at first but now worry we've overreacted. Others, like me, are pretty appalled at things like Claire Lehmann, High Priestess of Open Thought, approving Medium pulling that article, or Steve saying hey, we've already done the damage so let's do more until we can see some benefit. And I've literally blocked Jay, he's so obnoxious.

    But I shouldn't be surprised at Steve; he has always valued ends over means. That's not a cut; he just thinks pragmatically.

    In any event, he's completely wrong on this. We're hurting our younger generations so a bunch of health nuts and establishment worshipping media can get off on extreme reactions so they can feel heroic.

    Replies: @utu, @Testing12, @Boethiuss, @Ron Unz, @Dave Pinsen, @ben tillman

    “Steve; he has always valued ends over means.” – Kill old people to save economy is means over ends in your world?

    • Replies: @education realist
    @utu

    No. Destroying the economy is easier than taking more controlled steps, and who cares, really, if the economy could have been protected?

    And most people I know who oppose a complete shut down aren't saying "kill old people", but even if some are, others are not, so focus on the ones who aren't.

  66. @Coemgen
    I've long been wondering why Trump picked Mike Pence as his "lieutenant." Of course, he has his Christian creds but he's another "not so great" at teleprompter reading. Yet, he's been fantastic as Dr Pence during this pandemic. His bedside manner is world-class.

    Winning again!

    Of course, real winning will be if Trump get $1,000,000,000,000 to spend any way he wants.

    Replies: @Anonymous, @R.G. Camara, @ScarletNumber, @Realist

    real winning will be if Trump get $1,000,000,000,000 to spend any way he wants.

    I thought you were exaggerating when you typed this, but this is indeed what one trillion looks like. It’s a million million.

  67. @Dano
    And let me also say the blurb Steve quoted, shows the author has literally NO IDEA about business. No clue whatsoever how a commercial real estate loan is put together. Truly a first-grade level of understanding. Pathetic is WAY too nice a word in describing what Scott Alexander wrote. Infantile in its description. Complete, total Hollywood level of stupidity. If anyone, and I mean even the half-wits at HuffPo, considers what Alexander wrote to be even a minuscule of accuracy is fooling themselves.

    Two words: Good God...

    Replies: @Anonymous, @ScarletNumber

    To describe Scott Alexander as autistic is to put it mildly. He is very naive outside his area of expertise.

    He is also VERY long-winded. Having said that, his greatest hits are very good.

    • Replies: @nebulafox
    @ScarletNumber

    Social awkwardness does not make one autistic. I've briefly met Scott. He didn't strike me as autistic. He's just really nebbishy: nice guy, intelligent guy, but nebbishy. We've placed the "autism" label on anything vaguely eccentric.

    This goes both ways: if you are high functioning enough, you can learn social skills analytically-like you would a foreign language. You'd be surprised how little it takes to deceive people: as a kid, I'd just copy verbatim what I found in books or on TV thinking that everybody was relying off of similar "scripts", and even that had non-complete failure results. You'll never be a native speaker, and you'll likely run into limitations occasionally because of overstimulation or tics or other features related to the disorder, but you often notice stuff on how people tick that ordinary people don't bother to recognize because they take it for granted, and this can pay dividends.

  68. People might want to read the “Bergamo” thread at Westhunter, now up to 150 comments:

    https://westhunt.wordpress.com/2020/03/25/just-another-flu-in-bergamo/

    One point made was that the number of projected deaths needs to be adjusted to take into account the widespread executions following the looming disaster.

    Such sentiments seem not inappropriate to me…

    • Replies: @Steve D
    @Ron Unz


    Such sentiments seem not inappropriate to me…
     
    Such sentiments should be reserved for race-traitors. Not people who had a differing opinion about a rapidly emerging situation.
    , @anonguy
    @Ron Unz

    Here is a great comment on that piece:


    Lots of the great and the good and people whose entire self-conception hinges on them being smart with their finger on the pulse are extremely angry that they didn’t see this coming. One of the ways their psyche copes with that inescapable fact is with an aggressively stupid under-reaction.
     
    It really amazed me, for one, that Bloomberg, with all the info and analysis apparatus at his fingertips, completely missed this.

    To their credit, CIA issued a concern in January, but Trump WH seems to have taken it as some Deep State plot, seemingly.

    Trump's early travel ban was very, very good, but complete fail on followup. It could have been a tremendously valuable first move if the margin it afforded had been used.

    Replies: @William Badwhite

    , @Boethiuss
    @Ron Unz


    One point made was that the number of projected deaths needs to be adjusted to take into account the widespread executions following the looming disaster.

    Such sentiments seem not inappropriate to me…
     
    I dunno, they look completely inappropriate for me. Not merely on the substance, but mostly because it leads be to believe that the speaker has lost his composure, and is likely to be making mistakes in advancing a line of argument.
    , @Lot
    @Ron Unz

    “ widespread executions following the looming disaster.”

    https://i3.kym-cdn.com/photos/images/facebook/000/424/056/fd3.jpg

    https://i0.kym-cdn.com/photos/images/original/000/412/172/e41.jpg

    https://cdn.kapwing.com/final_5e7d91a4d7790d0016b6c808_508228.jpg

    , @anon
    @Ron Unz

    Such sentiments seem not inappropriate to me…

    Such sentiments are juvenile, at best.

  69. @education realist
    Like many here, I completely disagree with Steve on this and have found it interesting how the skeptic community has broken up over this. Steve. JayMan, Claire Lehmann seem to think it's fine to bankrupt the economy in the name of "Just One Less Death", whereas Philippe, Ben SixSmith and others were worried at first but now worry we've overreacted. Others, like me, are pretty appalled at things like Claire Lehmann, High Priestess of Open Thought, approving Medium pulling that article, or Steve saying hey, we've already done the damage so let's do more until we can see some benefit. And I've literally blocked Jay, he's so obnoxious.

    But I shouldn't be surprised at Steve; he has always valued ends over means. That's not a cut; he just thinks pragmatically.

    In any event, he's completely wrong on this. We're hurting our younger generations so a bunch of health nuts and establishment worshipping media can get off on extreme reactions so they can feel heroic.

    Replies: @utu, @Testing12, @Boethiuss, @Ron Unz, @Dave Pinsen, @ben tillman

    Consider that some of the bloggers and commenters who are freaking out about COVID also just by coincidence happen to be elderly and/or in poor health personally. So it seems they have bought into the MSM panic out of a sense of self interest and have suspended their usual level of skepticism towards flashing headlines, liberal talking heads, and skewed numbers.

    That’s perfectly natural of course, but maybe after life returns to normal in a couple months they will pause to reflect on their own behavior during Corona-hysteria next time they mock a shallow “let’s talk about me” nyt opinion piece. You would think this is the zombie apocalypse given some of the things I see written.

    • Agree: Morton's toes
  70. @MEH 0910
    @Federalist

    Do you understand the responsibility that Steve bears for other peoples lives? Steve singlehandedly elected Trump president.

    https://nymag.com/intelligencer/2017/04/steve-sailer-invented-identity-politics-for-the-alt-right.html

    Replies: @ScarletNumber, @Dano

    Well with an assist from Ann Coulter.

  71. @education realist
    Like many here, I completely disagree with Steve on this and have found it interesting how the skeptic community has broken up over this. Steve. JayMan, Claire Lehmann seem to think it's fine to bankrupt the economy in the name of "Just One Less Death", whereas Philippe, Ben SixSmith and others were worried at first but now worry we've overreacted. Others, like me, are pretty appalled at things like Claire Lehmann, High Priestess of Open Thought, approving Medium pulling that article, or Steve saying hey, we've already done the damage so let's do more until we can see some benefit. And I've literally blocked Jay, he's so obnoxious.

    But I shouldn't be surprised at Steve; he has always valued ends over means. That's not a cut; he just thinks pragmatically.

    In any event, he's completely wrong on this. We're hurting our younger generations so a bunch of health nuts and establishment worshipping media can get off on extreme reactions so they can feel heroic.

    Replies: @utu, @Testing12, @Boethiuss, @Ron Unz, @Dave Pinsen, @ben tillman

    Like many here, I completely disagree with Steve on this and have found it interesting how the skeptic community has broken up over this. Steve. JayMan, Claire Lehmann seem to think it’s fine to bankrupt the economy in the name of “Just One Less Death”, whereas Philippe, Ben SixSmith and others were worried at first but now worry we’ve overreacted. Others, like me, are pretty appalled at things like Claire Lehmann, High Priestess of Open Thought, approving Medium pulling that article, or Steve saying hey, we’ve already done the damage so let’s do more until we can see some benefit. And I’ve literally blocked Jay, he’s so obnoxious.

    I want to agree with you and I suspect in some world I do but right now the tradeoffs are so nebulous that it’s hard to make intelligent choices.

    We can say that those teenagers going to spring break at Daytona was really stupid and that sort of thing ought to be banned or substantially discouraged. And at the same time, we should still have a little more freedom of action to work, and earn a living and do some important social activities. The thing is, I don’t think anybody has a real good handle on where the dividing line ought to be, even for that matter to accurately describe the nature of the tradeoffs.

    Sometime, say in a week or a month maybe, we ought to have that. One way to read Steve, as I do (though not especially carefully), is to say that we shouldn’t open up again until that happens. And to that extent, I think he’s right.

    • Agree: Hibernian, ben tillman
    • Replies: @education realist
    @Boethiuss

    I don't know that spring break at Daytona was "stupid". but rather than say "don't do it", I'd limit beach attendance, spending money on security to dramatically reduce crowds. Sure, that'd suck. But it'd keep the businesses open, and paying for security is a lot cheaper than paying for 3-5 million unemployed.

    Disneyland and other resort destinations--again, dramatic reductions in attendance. Driving is ok, but air travel less so. Airplanes can't be full. Probably means prices increase.

    Use hotels to house elderly or other vulnerable populations who are living with family members or in areas where they can't easily get around without lots of contact. That will take up some of their slack, and feeding them will also keep staff employed.

    Nursing home staff is the one people keep bringing up, which is moronic. Oh dear, a nursing staff person might get infected if we don't shut down the world. So? Nursing home staff are going to grocery stores and living with family members now. Do temperature tests, scrub them down, and come up with other means of limiting contacts.

    And so on.

    I find it inexplicable that people would judge people going to spring break as "stupid". they're not doing what you would do. So the fuck what? Decide what the limit is.

    But no, much easier to kill the economy and then spend trillions giving *everyone* money, even social security, welfare, and fully employed people because politicians are fuckwits.

    Replies: @Boethiuss, @Peter Akuleyev

    , @Neil Templeton
    @Boethiuss


    We can say that those teenagers going to spring break at Daytona was really stupid and that sort of thing ought to be banned or substantially discouraged.
     
    Most everyone is going to get it eventually, the young people know this. Some of us older folk will die, we know that. Rise to the occasion, or not. In this case, the kids are right. We can suppress the fire this time, but next time the fire will be larger. Better learn to live with fire, for it is our inheritance, our virtue, and our curse.
  72. @education realist
    Like many here, I completely disagree with Steve on this and have found it interesting how the skeptic community has broken up over this. Steve. JayMan, Claire Lehmann seem to think it's fine to bankrupt the economy in the name of "Just One Less Death", whereas Philippe, Ben SixSmith and others were worried at first but now worry we've overreacted. Others, like me, are pretty appalled at things like Claire Lehmann, High Priestess of Open Thought, approving Medium pulling that article, or Steve saying hey, we've already done the damage so let's do more until we can see some benefit. And I've literally blocked Jay, he's so obnoxious.

    But I shouldn't be surprised at Steve; he has always valued ends over means. That's not a cut; he just thinks pragmatically.

    In any event, he's completely wrong on this. We're hurting our younger generations so a bunch of health nuts and establishment worshipping media can get off on extreme reactions so they can feel heroic.

    Replies: @utu, @Testing12, @Boethiuss, @Ron Unz, @Dave Pinsen, @ben tillman

    Like many here, I completely disagree with Steve on this and have found it interesting how the skeptic community has broken up over this. Steve. JayMan, Claire Lehmann seem to think it’s fine to bankrupt the economy in the name of “Just One Less Death”, whereas Philippe, Ben SixSmith and others were worried at first but now worry we’ve overreacted…. And I’ve literally blocked Jay, he’s so obnoxious.

    Well, I’m vaguely familiar with Claire Lehmann, who’s the editor of Quillette. But I don’t spend my time on Twitter, so I don’t have a clue who “Philippe” is. And what in the world is a “Ben SixSmith”?

    Offhand, it sounds like the divide may be between individuals who can do math and individuals who can’t. For example, here’s a graph someone just provided of the current exponential death-curve for New York:

    https://www.unz.com/runz/correctly-estimating-coronavirus-infections/#comment-3797732

    • Replies: @education realist
    @Ron Unz

    Geez, I don't know: what in the world is a Ron Unz? I'm the only one of the three of us using a non-name. Philippe is a PhD candidate at Cornell; Ben is an English writer who lives in Poland. Both are plenty smart.

    As for the "oh, you must not know math"--Sigh. How tedious and unoriginal. And how boring an argument.

    I freely admit that for a math teacher, I'm an excellent English major. But then,math is my *weak* subject and I score in the 96+ percentile, so I'm kind of figuring that's more than smart enough to grasp your rather ordinary point. It's certainly obvious my verbal skills are a shit ton better than yours, so we can call it even.

    So focus hard, and see if you can grasp this: There's a big distance between doing nothing and killing the economy. There's plenty of room to reduce transmission without sending everyone home. Figure that killing the economy results in X deaths, and doing less than killing the economy but still reducing transmission results in X + Y deaths.

    Issue is size of Y. Your graph is irrelevant. Everybody gets the graph, Ron. Nobody likes pedants.

    Replies: @Boethiuss, @Mr McKenna, @dfordoom, @Corvinus

    , @Kratoklastes
    @Ron Unz

    The appropriate calculation ought to go something like this:

    ① adjust 'covid deaths' by Pr(false positive) - i.e., reduce them by ~3/4ths[1];
    ② generate some Monte Carlo data under a range of assumptions for a SEIR model, always assuming that Patient Zero arrived in mid-late December 2019;
    ③ see where the 'probability-adjusted covid deaths' line is, in relation to the error bounds obtained from ②.

    (Protip: it's below the lower bound. I've done this exercise, as you might imagine).


    [1] What have the test producers said? That a positive test indicates that the person has something - not definitively the dreaded novel coronavirus 2019.

    They have slammed the door on that aspect of the issue: try and find anything about false POSITIVES on Google and you will be inundated with hundreds of links to stories about why you should still panic because you tested NEGATIVE.

    Of course, the Chicken Littles have been "buk-buk-bukAAAAK"-ing about false negatives, because they are trying - desperately - to keep the mouth-breathers in a state of frisson.

    Replies: @Steve Sailer

    , @Brás Cubas
    @Ron Unz


    And what in the world is a “Ben SixSmith”?
     
    Ben Sixsmith writes for Spectator USA. Here's a piece he wrote about you:

    The Curious Case of Ron Unz
    https://spectator.us/ron-unz/

    As for your seeming astonishment over his last name, here is some information about its origins:

    https://www.surnamedb.com/Surname/Sixsmith

    Just thought you'd like to know. Besides, my reaction-button functionality has been blocked for not commenting often enough, so...

    Replies: @JimDandy

    , @John Burns, Gettysburg Partisan
    @Ron Unz

    Andrew Cuomo sounds pretty skeptical now, Ron.

    , @Intelligent Dasein
    @Ron Unz

    You fell victim to one of the classic blunders. Never get involved in a math battle with The Internet when death is on the line!

    , @ThreeCranes
    @Ron Unz

    Deaths stand to epidemiology as murders stand to crime. They would seem to be the gold standard since they can’t be faked.

    Again I make the simple observation that hospital admission curves rise in tandem with deaths . This indicates that there is a reasonable connection. (Incidence = some multiple, say, 10x of death + instantaneous value on death curve.)

    This is powerful evidence that these statistics represent something real. The alternative belief is that there is a systematic error skewing the statistics reported by every nation in the world. And this is just not likely. They can’t all be making the same mistake in diagnosis of death.

    , @keypusher
    @Ron Unz

    Philippe Lemoine

    @phl43

    I wouldn't call him a skeptic exactly. He's cautious. He wrote what I thought was a very smart (certainly it was very long) response to the original Imperial College paper, which you can find on his blog. But that's OBE now. Anyway, I think you would find him worth your time, although he mostly tweets in French these days.

    Don't really know Sixsmith. EdReal, you're awesome, but to be fair, it's pretty easy to think that Sixsmith isn't a real name.

    @BDSixsmith

  73. @Kronos
    @anonguy


    Like some small strokes that have left him functional, just a little stubborn and set in his ways. Used to be considered a common consequence of aging.
     
    Please keep in mind that he’s been on a war-footing since the 2015 Republican Primaries. Jeez, I’m exhausted just recalling the last five years and I’m fairly young and not in public office. He has to contend against neoliberal Democrats and backstabbing Neocons. He’s navigated the whole thing extremely well. He and Bernie Sanders are the most energetic old timers I know. (I likely would’ve died from a heart attack already if President. Likely from using hookers and meth like JFK.) So between navigating a presidential race and managing Covid 19/Great Depression 2.0 I understand he’s a bit tired.

    http://www.angelfire.com/mech/jinsaotome/JinsDangerousToys2/EmperorTrump_001.JPG

    Replies: @anonguy, @anon, @Uilleam yr Alban

    Nice use of the Warhammer 40k motif.

  74. Anon[174] • Disclaimer says:

    If Peale is supposed to be a subtle jab, then I suppose the opposite is true as well…”The Power of Negative Thinking”.

    The Coronavirus will go down in the same vein as Tulip Mania and Cotton Mather’s three end-of-the world predictions. Maybe Mather’s smallpox experience was a factor in his continued pessimism.

  75. @Ron Unz
    People might want to read the "Bergamo" thread at Westhunter, now up to 150 comments:

    https://westhunt.wordpress.com/2020/03/25/just-another-flu-in-bergamo/

    One point made was that the number of projected deaths needs to be adjusted to take into account the widespread executions following the looming disaster.

    Such sentiments seem not inappropriate to me...

    Replies: @Steve D, @anonguy, @Boethiuss, @Lot, @anon

    Such sentiments seem not inappropriate to me…

    Such sentiments should be reserved for race-traitors. Not people who had a differing opinion about a rapidly emerging situation.

  76. the divide may be between individuals who can do math and individuals who can’t.

    Yes, we must base our course of action on the advice of autistic spergs like Ron and Greg Cochrane, because math. 🙁

  77. @Ron Unz
    People might want to read the "Bergamo" thread at Westhunter, now up to 150 comments:

    https://westhunt.wordpress.com/2020/03/25/just-another-flu-in-bergamo/

    One point made was that the number of projected deaths needs to be adjusted to take into account the widespread executions following the looming disaster.

    Such sentiments seem not inappropriate to me...

    Replies: @Steve D, @anonguy, @Boethiuss, @Lot, @anon

    Here is a great comment on that piece:

    Lots of the great and the good and people whose entire self-conception hinges on them being smart with their finger on the pulse are extremely angry that they didn’t see this coming. One of the ways their psyche copes with that inescapable fact is with an aggressively stupid under-reaction.

    It really amazed me, for one, that Bloomberg, with all the info and analysis apparatus at his fingertips, completely missed this.

    To their credit, CIA issued a concern in January, but Trump WH seems to have taken it as some Deep State plot, seemingly.

    Trump’s early travel ban was very, very good, but complete fail on followup. It could have been a tremendously valuable first move if the margin it afforded had been used.

    • Replies: @William Badwhite
    @anonguy


    To their credit, CIA issued a concern in January, but Trump WH seems to have taken it as some Deep State plot, seemingly.
     
    This is the problem with being completely untrustworthy and participating in an attempted coup - people don't trust the untrustworthy.

    Going forward the CIA should be either defunded or heavily purged but there is no point in having an intelligence agency that can't be trusted by the executive branch. Same goes for the Washington staff of the FBI.
  78. @Louis Renault
    @trelane

    Who was it that used to drive Senator Feinstein around? How long has China been infiltrating 'elite' universities here?
    https://www.justice.gov/opa/pr/harvard-university-professor-and-two-chinese-nationals-charged-three-separate-china-related

    Replies: @Alice, @danand, @Twodees Partain

    Mr.Renault, are you implying that the good doctor Lieber may be the evil Wuhan Coronaman? What a guy; wonder if he did what he done did for political/philosophical reasons, or was it all just about the Benjamins?

    According to court documents, since 2008, Dr. Lieber who has served as the Principal Investigator of the Lieber Research Group at Harvard University, which specialized in the area of nanoscience, has received more than $15,000,000 in grant funding from the National Institutes of Health (NIH) and Department of Defense (DOD). These grants require the disclosure of significant foreign financial conflicts of interest, including financial support from foreign governments or foreign entities. Unbeknownst to Harvard University beginning in 2011, Lieber became a “Strategic Scientist” at Wuhan University of Technology (WUT) in China and was a contractual participant in China’s Thousand Talents Plan from in or about 2012 to 2017.

    Under the terms of Lieber’s three-year Thousand Talents contract, WUT paid Lieber $50,000 USD per month, living expenses of up to 1,000,000 Chinese Yuan (approximately $158,000 USD at the time) and awarded him more than $1.5 million to establish a research lab at WUT.

    A2D96C19-D842-4A23-80DF-4796484B8BEE

    • Replies: @Louis Renault
    @danand

    No, but please feel free to repeat communist propaganda that 'merica did it! He's just corrupt.

  79. @Ron Unz
    @education realist


    Like many here, I completely disagree with Steve on this and have found it interesting how the skeptic community has broken up over this. Steve. JayMan, Claire Lehmann seem to think it’s fine to bankrupt the economy in the name of “Just One Less Death”, whereas Philippe, Ben SixSmith and others were worried at first but now worry we’ve overreacted.... And I’ve literally blocked Jay, he’s so obnoxious.
     
    Well, I'm vaguely familiar with Claire Lehmann, who's the editor of Quillette. But I don't spend my time on Twitter, so I don't have a clue who "Philippe" is. And what in the world is a "Ben SixSmith"?

    Offhand, it sounds like the divide may be between individuals who can do math and individuals who can't. For example, here's a graph someone just provided of the current exponential death-curve for New York:

    https://i.ibb.co/b610g3M/Graph0.png

    https://www.unz.com/runz/correctly-estimating-coronavirus-infections/#comment-3797732

    Replies: @education realist, @Kratoklastes, @Brás Cubas, @John Burns, Gettysburg Partisan, @Intelligent Dasein, @ThreeCranes, @keypusher

    Geez, I don’t know: what in the world is a Ron Unz? I’m the only one of the three of us using a non-name. Philippe is a PhD candidate at Cornell; Ben is an English writer who lives in Poland. Both are plenty smart.

    As for the “oh, you must not know math”–Sigh. How tedious and unoriginal. And how boring an argument.

    I freely admit that for a math teacher, I’m an excellent English major. But then,math is my *weak* subject and I score in the 96+ percentile, so I’m kind of figuring that’s more than smart enough to grasp your rather ordinary point. It’s certainly obvious my verbal skills are a shit ton better than yours, so we can call it even.

    So focus hard, and see if you can grasp this: There’s a big distance between doing nothing and killing the economy. There’s plenty of room to reduce transmission without sending everyone home. Figure that killing the economy results in X deaths, and doing less than killing the economy but still reducing transmission results in X + Y deaths.

    Issue is size of Y. Your graph is irrelevant. Everybody gets the graph, Ron. Nobody likes pedants.

    • Replies: @Boethiuss
    @education realist


    Geez, I don’t know: what in the world is a Ron Unz? I’m the only one of the three of us using a non-name. Philippe is a PhD candidate at Cornell; Ben is an English writer who lives in Poland. Both are plenty smart.
     
    I'm sure they are, but I wasn't/am not aware of who they are either.

    Replies: @education realist

    , @Mr McKenna
    @education realist


    Your graph is irrelevant.
     
    Says you! It clearly shows that those who are expert at mathematics are becoming infected--and indeed dying--at significantly lower rates than normies.

    Oh wait, I was holding it upside down.
    , @dfordoom
    @education realist


    So focus hard, and see if you can grasp this: There’s a big distance between doing nothing and killing the economy. There’s plenty of room to reduce transmission without sending everyone home.
     
    It's really depressing to see people dividing up into two armed camps over this. There's too much either/or thinking. The idea that there are only two choices:

    1) Let lots of old people die so the economy keeps booming.

    2) Totally destroy the economy rather than let one 80-year-old die.

    is complete nonsense.

    There are lots of things that can provide a high level of protection for the sick and the old and the vulnerable without trashing the economy. Some of these things will involve inconvenience but putting up with inconvenience is better than having the economy crash or lots of people dying.

    There are a few idiots on both ends of the scale. But most sane people should be able to agree on sensible compromises. It's surely pretty obvious that if the economy crashes and doesn't bounce back then the sick and the old and the vulnerable will be in an even worse situation. So some compromise is unavoidable.
    , @Corvinus
    @education realist

    You said a lot of words, but you didn’t offer a cogent rebuttal.

  80. I’ve long said that the key to understanding Trump is to understand his two greatest mentors: Norman Vincent Peale and Roy Cohn. He’s become a relatively obscure figure today, but he was effectively the mastermind behind the Second Red Scare (McCarthy was something of his puppet). He was also known more generally as your ultimate sleazebag New York lawyer and has the paper trail to back it up. He also served as Trump’s lawyer in the future President’s early career, and would allegedly call him for advice on a near-constant basis. Also interesting is his death from AIDS and apparent repressed homosexuality.

    • Replies: @Hibernian
    @sb057


    Norman Vincent Peale and Roy Cohn.
     
    A phony Christian reverend and a stereotypical Jewish dude.

    Replies: @BB753, @njguy73

    , @James J. O'Meara
    @sb057

    "relatively unknown" meaning other than having a film about him released a few months ago:

    https://www.counter-currents.com/2019/11/roy-we-hardly-knew-ye/

  81. @Thea
    Pessimists experience less disappointment. Wake up each morning and consider all that can go terribly wrong. Chances are the day won’t be quite that bad. So you go bed feeling a bit more content.

    Unwarranted optimism can be quite dangerous.

    Replies: @Harry Baldwin, @Uilleam yr Alban

    No, pessimists experience more disappointment. While they “consider all that can go terribly wrong,” they live through various pains that will never occur.

    • Agree: Redneck farmer
  82. @Boethiuss
    Politically speaking, I suspect is in much better shape now than he was a week or so ago. If the economy tanks, yeah that's not really Trump's fault, he ran into a global pandemic.

    He would have been blamed for the federal government response to the virus, except for the media and the opposition party have shown their feral nasty nature to the point where Trump actually looks statesmanlike by comparison. Specifically the refusal of the Senate Democrats, on the instigation of the House Democrats, to move forward (ie, advance to debate on the floor) with an emergency relief package that they had just negotiated with the Democrats. And many other things of a similar nature, though that one is the most prominent.

    This is not the last word on an election that's scheduled for 7 months from now, of course, but a couple of weeks ago, I suspected Trump was dead in the water. Now, I don't think he is.

    Replies: @snorlax

    a couple of weeks ago, I suspected Trump was dead in the water. Now, I don’t think he is.

    Oh no, here I was thinking Trump was in good shape until I saw you predicted the same.

    • Replies: @Boethiuss
    @snorlax


    Oh no, here I was thinking Trump was in good shape until I saw you predicted the same.
     
    Yeah, you can say who is really supposed to care about that when there are so many other things which are more important.

    And not everything is going to turn on that. But narrow as it is, a lot of things will, not least of which was Speaker Pelosi's failed attempt to grab the agenda away from President Trump earlier this week.

    Replies: @Peter Akuleyev, @Anonymous

  83. @Kronos
    @Dano

    Steve, you have a favorite drink?

    Replies: @Father O'Hara

    Race denialists’ tears?

    • Replies: @Kronos
    @Father O'Hara

    Ok, one Stephen Jay Gould lemon eye-twister martini coming right up...

    https://i1.kym-cdn.com/photos/images/facebook/000/460/873/4b3.jpg

  84. @snorlax
    @Boethiuss


    a couple of weeks ago, I suspected Trump was dead in the water. Now, I don’t think he is.
     
    Oh no, here I was thinking Trump was in good shape until I saw you predicted the same.

    Replies: @Boethiuss

    Oh no, here I was thinking Trump was in good shape until I saw you predicted the same.

    Yeah, you can say who is really supposed to care about that when there are so many other things which are more important.

    And not everything is going to turn on that. But narrow as it is, a lot of things will, not least of which was Speaker Pelosi’s failed attempt to grab the agenda away from President Trump earlier this week.

    • Replies: @Peter Akuleyev
    @Boethiuss

    Speaker Pelosi’s failed attempt to grab the agenda away from President Trump earlier this week.

    Trump gets a lot of credit here (and generally) for doing things that are actually Mitch McConnell’s doing. It has become increasingly clear that Trump is just a figurehead who the grownups in the GOP are happy to let ramble incoherently while they get on with tax cuts, appointing judges, and dismantling regulations.

    Replies: @Boethiuss

    , @Anonymous
    @Boethiuss

    Nancy Pelosi became Minority Whip on
    October 11, 2001.

    The "PATRIOT Act" rescinding much of the U.S. Constitution was signed into law on
    October 26, 2001.

    Replies: @Boethiuss

  85. @education realist
    @Ron Unz

    Geez, I don't know: what in the world is a Ron Unz? I'm the only one of the three of us using a non-name. Philippe is a PhD candidate at Cornell; Ben is an English writer who lives in Poland. Both are plenty smart.

    As for the "oh, you must not know math"--Sigh. How tedious and unoriginal. And how boring an argument.

    I freely admit that for a math teacher, I'm an excellent English major. But then,math is my *weak* subject and I score in the 96+ percentile, so I'm kind of figuring that's more than smart enough to grasp your rather ordinary point. It's certainly obvious my verbal skills are a shit ton better than yours, so we can call it even.

    So focus hard, and see if you can grasp this: There's a big distance between doing nothing and killing the economy. There's plenty of room to reduce transmission without sending everyone home. Figure that killing the economy results in X deaths, and doing less than killing the economy but still reducing transmission results in X + Y deaths.

    Issue is size of Y. Your graph is irrelevant. Everybody gets the graph, Ron. Nobody likes pedants.

    Replies: @Boethiuss, @Mr McKenna, @dfordoom, @Corvinus

    Geez, I don’t know: what in the world is a Ron Unz? I’m the only one of the three of us using a non-name. Philippe is a PhD candidate at Cornell; Ben is an English writer who lives in Poland. Both are plenty smart.

    I’m sure they are, but I wasn’t/am not aware of who they are either.

    • Replies: @education realist
    @Boethiuss

    I understand that. I was referring to the absurd "what is a Ben Sixsmith"? I mean my lord, he was writing that to someone tagged education realist. Ben Sixsmith is at least a name.

  86. @Kronos
    @anonguy


    Like some small strokes that have left him functional, just a little stubborn and set in his ways. Used to be considered a common consequence of aging.
     
    Please keep in mind that he’s been on a war-footing since the 2015 Republican Primaries. Jeez, I’m exhausted just recalling the last five years and I’m fairly young and not in public office. He has to contend against neoliberal Democrats and backstabbing Neocons. He’s navigated the whole thing extremely well. He and Bernie Sanders are the most energetic old timers I know. (I likely would’ve died from a heart attack already if President. Likely from using hookers and meth like JFK.) So between navigating a presidential race and managing Covid 19/Great Depression 2.0 I understand he’s a bit tired.

    http://www.angelfire.com/mech/jinsaotome/JinsDangerousToys2/EmperorTrump_001.JPG

    Replies: @anonguy, @anon, @Uilleam yr Alban

    Exactly. Given his nonstop siege by the entire Permanent Establishment for four years now, Trump’s mental fortitude approaches the superhuman.

  87. @Ron Unz
    People might want to read the "Bergamo" thread at Westhunter, now up to 150 comments:

    https://westhunt.wordpress.com/2020/03/25/just-another-flu-in-bergamo/

    One point made was that the number of projected deaths needs to be adjusted to take into account the widespread executions following the looming disaster.

    Such sentiments seem not inappropriate to me...

    Replies: @Steve D, @anonguy, @Boethiuss, @Lot, @anon

    One point made was that the number of projected deaths needs to be adjusted to take into account the widespread executions following the looming disaster.

    Such sentiments seem not inappropriate to me…

    I dunno, they look completely inappropriate for me. Not merely on the substance, but mostly because it leads be to believe that the speaker has lost his composure, and is likely to be making mistakes in advancing a line of argument.

  88. @Boethiuss
    @education realist


    Geez, I don’t know: what in the world is a Ron Unz? I’m the only one of the three of us using a non-name. Philippe is a PhD candidate at Cornell; Ben is an English writer who lives in Poland. Both are plenty smart.
     
    I'm sure they are, but I wasn't/am not aware of who they are either.

    Replies: @education realist

    I understand that. I was referring to the absurd “what is a Ben Sixsmith”? I mean my lord, he was writing that to someone tagged education realist. Ben Sixsmith is at least a name.

  89. @Ron Unz
    People might want to read the "Bergamo" thread at Westhunter, now up to 150 comments:

    https://westhunt.wordpress.com/2020/03/25/just-another-flu-in-bergamo/

    One point made was that the number of projected deaths needs to be adjusted to take into account the widespread executions following the looming disaster.

    Such sentiments seem not inappropriate to me...

    Replies: @Steve D, @anonguy, @Boethiuss, @Lot, @anon

    “ widespread executions following the looming disaster.”

    • LOL: Redneck farmer
  90. @Boethiuss
    @education realist


    Like many here, I completely disagree with Steve on this and have found it interesting how the skeptic community has broken up over this. Steve. JayMan, Claire Lehmann seem to think it’s fine to bankrupt the economy in the name of “Just One Less Death”, whereas Philippe, Ben SixSmith and others were worried at first but now worry we’ve overreacted. Others, like me, are pretty appalled at things like Claire Lehmann, High Priestess of Open Thought, approving Medium pulling that article, or Steve saying hey, we’ve already done the damage so let’s do more until we can see some benefit. And I’ve literally blocked Jay, he’s so obnoxious.
     
    I want to agree with you and I suspect in some world I do but right now the tradeoffs are so nebulous that it's hard to make intelligent choices.

    We can say that those teenagers going to spring break at Daytona was really stupid and that sort of thing ought to be banned or substantially discouraged. And at the same time, we should still have a little more freedom of action to work, and earn a living and do some important social activities. The thing is, I don't think anybody has a real good handle on where the dividing line ought to be, even for that matter to accurately describe the nature of the tradeoffs.

    Sometime, say in a week or a month maybe, we ought to have that. One way to read Steve, as I do (though not especially carefully), is to say that we shouldn't open up again until that happens. And to that extent, I think he's right.

    Replies: @education realist, @Neil Templeton

    I don’t know that spring break at Daytona was “stupid”. but rather than say “don’t do it”, I’d limit beach attendance, spending money on security to dramatically reduce crowds. Sure, that’d suck. But it’d keep the businesses open, and paying for security is a lot cheaper than paying for 3-5 million unemployed.

    Disneyland and other resort destinations–again, dramatic reductions in attendance. Driving is ok, but air travel less so. Airplanes can’t be full. Probably means prices increase.

    Use hotels to house elderly or other vulnerable populations who are living with family members or in areas where they can’t easily get around without lots of contact. That will take up some of their slack, and feeding them will also keep staff employed.

    Nursing home staff is the one people keep bringing up, which is moronic. Oh dear, a nursing staff person might get infected if we don’t shut down the world. So? Nursing home staff are going to grocery stores and living with family members now. Do temperature tests, scrub them down, and come up with other means of limiting contacts.

    And so on.

    I find it inexplicable that people would judge people going to spring break as “stupid”. they’re not doing what you would do. So the fuck what? Decide what the limit is.

    But no, much easier to kill the economy and then spend trillions giving *everyone* money, even social security, welfare, and fully employed people because politicians are fuckwits.

    • Replies: @Boethiuss
    @education realist


    But it’d keep the businesses open, and paying for security is a lot cheaper than paying for 3-5 million unemployed.

    Disneyland and other resort destinations–again, dramatic reductions in attendance. Driving is ok, but air travel less so. Airplanes can’t be full. Probably means prices increase.

    Use hotels to house elderly or other vulnerable populations who are living with family members or in areas where they can’t easily get around without lots of contact. That will take up some of their slack, and feeding them will also keep staff employed.
     
    I'd like to be sympathetic to this point of view, and if we're still where we are now by summer, I think we'll go way beyond this. Ie, at that point basically re-open everything, and hope that people have immunity.

    But, the biggest problem I have with the your line of comments on this thread is a lack of precision, even in terms of making a speculation as you are. That's to say, that if we did something along the lines of your suggestion, that would prevent the worst of the economic dislocation. I'm not convinced it would.

    Because in order to maintain economic activity, businesses must be open and have customers. And in your scenario, it seems as though there would be a huge dropoff in customers to the point where I question how much economic benefit there is in the business remaining open. In an extreme case with particular relevance, consider the cruise ship business. Tbh, I'm not sure exactly what virus-related restrictions are in force now. Whatever they are, suppose they were relaxed along the lines of your ideas. Even if the cruise lines were taking money, who's spending? Who really wants to get on a boat and steam from Miami to Jamaica now anyway?

    If we had more concrete answers to this sort of thing, we might be able to make smarter mitigations, specifically those resulting from widespread testing and self-knowledge related to being infected.

    Replies: @Harry Baldwin, @education realist

    , @Peter Akuleyev
    @education realist

    The UK tried the Education Realist approach for about a week. Things started spiraling out of control so quickly the government panicked and went to full lockdown. However, Sweden is still on the business as usual within limits plan, let’s see how that goes.

    The US missed the chance to be Taiwan about 6 weeks ago, around the time Trump was still referring to the Corona Virus as a hoax.

    Replies: @Mr McKenna, @MEH 0910, @education realist

  91. NYC => Northern Italy

    • Replies: @AnotherGuessModel
    @Ron Unz

    I'll be the bearer of some good news, however relative. Whatever our disagreements, if that's the American version of an overstretched and unprepared hospital - and I sincerely don't mean to minimize or cast doubt on the nurse's testimony - be skeptical when you come across unfavorable media coverage of your healthcare system's ability to respond to the pandemic compared to developed European nations.

    , @Hibernian
    @Ron Unz

    Do you think having a crybaby like this in management might be part of the problem? In a local organization, and that includes health care, it's not uncommon for supplies and equipment that are needed to sit idly in storage,because nobody takes the initiative to move them to where they are needed. Every sector of local government in large cities is used as a dumping ground for political machine patronage hacks. This includes health care, and Cook County (Chicago) Hospital, now called Stroger Hospital, has been a prime example over the years.

    , @peterike
    @Ron Unz

    I like how the doctor in that video says "This is America. This is a first world country." Yeah, but this is also Elmhurst, which is a third-world neighborhood.

    I wonder how much of the stress on the ER is frantic, excitable third worlders crashing the emergency room because they coughed a few times.

    Replies: @epebble

  92. @utu
    @education realist

    "Steve; he has always valued ends over means." - Kill old people to save economy is means over ends in your world?

    Replies: @education realist

    No. Destroying the economy is easier than taking more controlled steps, and who cares, really, if the economy could have been protected?

    And most people I know who oppose a complete shut down aren’t saying “kill old people”, but even if some are, others are not, so focus on the ones who aren’t.

  93. @Ron Unz
    People might want to read the "Bergamo" thread at Westhunter, now up to 150 comments:

    https://westhunt.wordpress.com/2020/03/25/just-another-flu-in-bergamo/

    One point made was that the number of projected deaths needs to be adjusted to take into account the widespread executions following the looming disaster.

    Such sentiments seem not inappropriate to me...

    Replies: @Steve D, @anonguy, @Boethiuss, @Lot, @anon

    Such sentiments seem not inappropriate to me…

    Such sentiments are juvenile, at best.

  94. @wren
    @Ron Unz

    The biggest problem with the Coronavirus is that you can’t deplatform it from Twitter when it does things you don’t like…

    Yeah, the CCP has deplatformed it from weibo and the Chinese media but they are having a tougher time of deplatforming it from Twitter, with a few exceptions. I was surprised to see a few mainland Chinese Twitter users get banned thanks to Chinese pressure, but some of them found their way back on.

    For example, this guy https://mobile.twitter.com/phdparody got banned for a while, but came back with a different name.

    As far as I know the wuhan virus succeeded in deplatforming Zerohedge from twitter, which was a pretty impressive scalp to collect.

    In fact, the CCP did deplatform the wuhan virus from their own platform.

    https://www.taiwannews.com.tw/en/news/3905013

    Replies: @Achmed E. Newman, @Bill P

    The CCP is dominating Wikipedia on this issue. These treasonous little weasels in tech, media and academia are in full flower right now. They’re scared they’ll lose the deal they’ve had with Beijing for the past couple decades, so they’re doubling down.

    In the meanwhile, Beijing is locking up foreigners and blaming the US military for the virus while Chinese citizens are walking around smugly with smiles on their faces here in the US.

    Whose country is this?

    Don’t beat up Chinese, but feel free to let them know what you think of the CCP. There’s no reason they should be comfortable here given what they’ve put us through. One thing is for sure — the Chinese are currently abusing American citizens in China.

    Don’t let them do that without pushback!

    • Replies: @wren
    @Bill P

    I haven't checked Wikipedia, but my Chinese friends are not really the type to support the CCP. Some day I should ask what they are doing to restore harmony since Xi has so clearly lost the mandate of heaven.

    I think that the CCP has been saying they have no new cases except for foreigners bringing it in because they know that they couldn't really contain it but want to keep the factories humming while knowing it is going to come back again.

    Then they can blame the foreigners.

    Uyghur twitter claims that Uyghurs are being used as slave labor to restart the factories.

    https://www.twitter.com/zaferer19331944/status/1240597921894195201

    He lives in the Hague, Netherlands.

    , @Anonymous
    @Bill P

    It's a huge relief to the Chinese that they're not the only ones with this disease. They have good reason to be happy.

  95. @anonguy
    @Thomas


    But now, with an actual crisis, the shift to “wartime President” may not be proving all that effective.
     
    One of his ongoing bits was that he could be as presidential as the most presidential president, in his estimation, Lincoln, but we would all be bored.

    When this virus stuff started, I thought, ok dude, here is your chance and he has never missed an opportunity to miss an opportunity.

    IMO at least as much of it to mental decline due to aging as mendacity, etc. He's supposedly an OCD germophobe, for cryin' out loud.

    Gerontocracy, like obesity, we have so much of it around it has become normalized and we fail to see it.

    LIke the Daily Mail articles popping up now about "fit and healthy" people with no comorbidities dyijng in their 30s/40s but you look at the pics and the individual is clearly quite overweight.

    Replies: @Louis Renault, @The Last Real Calvinist, @black sea, @Kratoklastes

    I noticed this as well. In yesterday’s Daily Mail, they wrote about a “fit and healthy” 47 year old who died alone, but when you see his photographs he looks like a grossly obese 55 year old. Of course, his story was quite sad — he died alone due to self-imposed quarantine — but that doesn’t make him “fit and healthy.”

    https://www.dailymail.co.uk/news/article-8154747/Fit-healthy-banker-dies-coronavirus-isolation.html

    • Replies: @anonguy
    @black sea

    Relative risk isn't provided, but the CDC is now listing it specifically as a top level, independent risk factor category like advanced age.

    Of course, the Chinese were indicating this from late January, but it was a lesser concern for them due to the low prevalence in their society. Smoking and bad air seemed to be their bigger nation-specific risk factors.

    This is going to be a big deal in the West if the disease continues to spread.

    And it doesn't even have to be so gruesome as a lot of deaths. Just the potential for an ugly death for themselves rather than someone's grandma in a nursing home makes it harder to cajole people back to work, so societal effects, work refusals, etc.

    Once 40% of the population, and that is only the officially obese, high BMI < obese probably isn't too good either, figures out they have similar risk to the old folks, and, obesity being more prevalent in lower classes with less options for working at home, well, you do the calculus.

    Mexico, phenomenal prevalence of obesity, is beginning to wake up to the threat. At first they thought they were off the hook being a relatively young society.

    Google it yourself.

    FWIW, I commented on this a number of weeks ago, that high BMI nations, and over medicated USA, which still hasn't manifested as a factor but undoubtedly will, would tend to make this less of only an old person's concern in populations with those characteristics.

    Replies: @anonguy

    , @BB753
    @black sea

    "Fat and unhealthy" is the new "fit and healthy".

    , @Hibernian
    @black sea

    People lying on their own behalf, and the media and crybaby left wing doctors lying concerning patients, about co-morbidities, is an obvious part of the mix. Of course mentioning HIV as a factor will bring down the wrath of God, or rather the wrath of the Devil. I love the social media posts about former pro athletes who got COVID-19. No mention of how sick they are, how long ago they retired, their life style, or any co-morbidities.

    , @Jonathan Mason
    @black sea


    In yesterday’s Daily Mail, they wrote about a “fit and healthy” 47 year old who died alone, but when you see his photographs he looks like a grossly obese 55 year old. Of course, his story was quite sad — he died alone due to self-imposed quarantine — but that doesn’t make him “fit and healthy.”
     
    There is certainly a huge difference between what people with medical training and backgrounds consider what the words "fit and healthy" means compared to the opinion of journalists or members of the general public.

    In fact doctors do not even use that term, unless they are Donald Trump's doctor. They are more likely to describe someone as something like a "well-nourished, well developed adult male in no apparent distress. All systems are WNL"

    To the medical person obesity, overweight, history of smoking, history of asthma, excessive use of alcohol, and substance abuse all form part of a diagnosis or are classified as risk factors. Diabetes type II is also closely associated with obesity and may be undiagnosed. And that is without even taking account of any results of blood tests that could show up diagnoses like high cholesterol or liver damage.

    Replies: @Anon

  96. @education realist
    @Boethiuss

    I don't know that spring break at Daytona was "stupid". but rather than say "don't do it", I'd limit beach attendance, spending money on security to dramatically reduce crowds. Sure, that'd suck. But it'd keep the businesses open, and paying for security is a lot cheaper than paying for 3-5 million unemployed.

    Disneyland and other resort destinations--again, dramatic reductions in attendance. Driving is ok, but air travel less so. Airplanes can't be full. Probably means prices increase.

    Use hotels to house elderly or other vulnerable populations who are living with family members or in areas where they can't easily get around without lots of contact. That will take up some of their slack, and feeding them will also keep staff employed.

    Nursing home staff is the one people keep bringing up, which is moronic. Oh dear, a nursing staff person might get infected if we don't shut down the world. So? Nursing home staff are going to grocery stores and living with family members now. Do temperature tests, scrub them down, and come up with other means of limiting contacts.

    And so on.

    I find it inexplicable that people would judge people going to spring break as "stupid". they're not doing what you would do. So the fuck what? Decide what the limit is.

    But no, much easier to kill the economy and then spend trillions giving *everyone* money, even social security, welfare, and fully employed people because politicians are fuckwits.

    Replies: @Boethiuss, @Peter Akuleyev

    But it’d keep the businesses open, and paying for security is a lot cheaper than paying for 3-5 million unemployed.

    Disneyland and other resort destinations–again, dramatic reductions in attendance. Driving is ok, but air travel less so. Airplanes can’t be full. Probably means prices increase.

    Use hotels to house elderly or other vulnerable populations who are living with family members or in areas where they can’t easily get around without lots of contact. That will take up some of their slack, and feeding them will also keep staff employed.

    I’d like to be sympathetic to this point of view, and if we’re still where we are now by summer, I think we’ll go way beyond this. Ie, at that point basically re-open everything, and hope that people have immunity.

    But, the biggest problem I have with the your line of comments on this thread is a lack of precision, even in terms of making a speculation as you are. That’s to say, that if we did something along the lines of your suggestion, that would prevent the worst of the economic dislocation. I’m not convinced it would.

    Because in order to maintain economic activity, businesses must be open and have customers. And in your scenario, it seems as though there would be a huge dropoff in customers to the point where I question how much economic benefit there is in the business remaining open. In an extreme case with particular relevance, consider the cruise ship business. Tbh, I’m not sure exactly what virus-related restrictions are in force now. Whatever they are, suppose they were relaxed along the lines of your ideas. Even if the cruise lines were taking money, who’s spending? Who really wants to get on a boat and steam from Miami to Jamaica now anyway?

    If we had more concrete answers to this sort of thing, we might be able to make smarter mitigations, specifically those resulting from widespread testing and self-knowledge related to being infected.

    • Replies: @Harry Baldwin
    @Boethiuss

    In an extreme case with particular relevance, consider the cruise ship business.

    Cruise ships shouldn't even be on our radar when it comes to saving businesses. They aren't owned by American companies, don't pay American taxes, and don't employ many Americans.

    Replies: @wren, @Boethiuss, @The Wild Geese Howard, @Daniel Chieh

    , @education realist
    @Boethiuss

    Who gives a shit about cruise lines?

    As for your demands for "concrete", that's foolish. We don't know if what we're doing *now* will work, so why aren't you demanding concrete numbers?

    You're just diddling, so whatevs.

  97. @newrouter
    @newrouter

    grammar update: >The rest "are" just details.< The rest is plural no?

    Replies: @black sea, @Kim

    It depends on whether that to which “the rest” refers is a non-count or plural noun.

    The rest of the money in the bank is sufficient.

    The rest of the cars on the lot are blue.

    In the case of your sentence, I don’t think its exactly clear what the rest” refers to.

    The rest [of the stuff the developer does] is just details.

    The rest [of the activities the developer undertakes] are just details.

    The rest is silence.

    • Agree: ben tillman
  98. @Intelligent Dasein

    I’m not a fan of the forced quarantines or the giant bailout, but am I really to believe anything would’ve been better if Obama or W were leading this shitshow of panic that has swept the nation?
     
    Never mind Obama and W, just imagine if Hillary was leading this shitshow. Can you even contemplate what horrors such a fate would encompass?

    Donald Trump is a sure sign that God still loves us and hasn't abandoned His creation.

    Replies: @Peter Akuleyev, @Corn, @Je Suis Omar Mateen

    Clinton would have at least left competent professional administrators in place, there would have been a pandemia response plan and the CDC and FDA would not be run by bootlickers trying to curry favor with the Leader. Trump decided to destroy the Federal government precisely at the moment we actually needed it for something.

    • Troll: MikeatMikedotMike
    • Replies: @Anonymous
    @Peter Akuleyev

    Hillary would not have had competent administrators. Anybody competent has left the Federal bureaucracy. Federal job holders are qualified by their ability to conform to Democratic politics, and that correlates negatively with ability. Consider the CDC's initial response to Covid-1. That would still be the CDC response had D. Trump not acted to change it. H. Clinton would have acted to reinforce the initial response so as not to let a crisis go to waste -- as N. Schumer is currently trying to do.
    Note that D. Trump has not made incompetent administrators competent. He has instead opened them so something they understand -- the "public-private' business is co-option by civil sector industry, in which civil sector provides the competence that has been exiled from the Federal government..
    Covid-19 is important because it presents the Federal government with a real problem that represents a real threat (shutdown of the "health care" industry) to the American population. The Federal government bureaucracy is proving unable to solve the problem; D. Trump is the only person addressing the problem rather than the politics of postmodernism (which claims the covid-19 problem is real, but dwarfed by intersectional unfairness).
    There has been a serious problem with legitimacy over at least the last 30 years, perhaps the last 60 years. Covid-19 makes the problem impossible to ignore.

    The chief opp0nents of the Deep State are itself and reality. It has been sustained by US military dominance since WW II. Note that there is a covid-19 outbreak aboard an aircraft carrier, crew 5000. The corpsmen have very limited test ability (thanks, CDC). What does this mean for US control of the sea lanes? Without that, US military dominance ends (it's already over for US ground forces and ending for USAF manned aircraft), and the world gets regional warfare -- which confronts the Deep State with problems well beyond its competence, or even beyond its ken.

    So don't disregard D. Trumps ability to assemble coalitions in the private sector. it's going to be needed even more than it is now.

    And, please, all you guys on Unz: Stop announcing that you've found the Devil and that he's a political opponent. Ever notice that opponents aren't mistaken, they are also sexual predictors who live solely to oppress and presumably kick kids dogs around before shooting the kids and having sex with the dogs? In other words, opponents are the Devil. When reading such comments, think that if the commenter is nasty enough to make such claims, he could just as easily make them about you, and what would you do then? Is not this person a threat to you?

    Replies: @FozzieT

    , @Pericles
    @Peter Akuleyev


    Clinton would have at least left competent professional administrators in place, there would have been a pandemia response plan and the CDC and FDA would not be run by bootlickers trying to curry favor with the Leader.

     

    Lol, we know you hate hate hate Trump with a parodic zeal but, please, you need a sense of proportion and realism in what you write. Also, adding an infatuation with Hillary to your hatred of Trump is rather disappointing.

    Replies: @William Badwhite, @Peter Akuleyev

    , @Jenner Ickham Errican
    @Peter Akuleyev


    competent professional administrators
     

    Trump decided to destroy the Federal government precisely at the moment we actually needed it for something.
     
    LOL. The Federal government wasn’t prepared for this before Trump’s presidency, either. It’s too late to prepare for a problem the precise moment it rears its head. At that point, one can only react.

    Except for maybe a few Cassandras, the entire American medical establishment—with reams and reams of framed office credentials—was sleepwalking on this. Suddenly doctors realize hospitals and the public needs millions and millions of masks— Supply chain? Pandemic? What’s that?
    , @res
    @Peter Akuleyev

    You forgot the most important point. She would have had the MSM covering for her rather than working to tear her down.

  99. He’s not a wartime consigliere

  100. @Boethiuss
    @snorlax


    Oh no, here I was thinking Trump was in good shape until I saw you predicted the same.
     
    Yeah, you can say who is really supposed to care about that when there are so many other things which are more important.

    And not everything is going to turn on that. But narrow as it is, a lot of things will, not least of which was Speaker Pelosi's failed attempt to grab the agenda away from President Trump earlier this week.

    Replies: @Peter Akuleyev, @Anonymous

    Speaker Pelosi’s failed attempt to grab the agenda away from President Trump earlier this week.

    Trump gets a lot of credit here (and generally) for doing things that are actually Mitch McConnell’s doing. It has become increasingly clear that Trump is just a figurehead who the grownups in the GOP are happy to let ramble incoherently while they get on with tax cuts, appointing judges, and dismantling regulations.

    • Troll: Biggest Shoe
    • Replies: @Boethiuss
    @Peter Akuleyev


    Trump gets a lot of credit here (and generally) for doing things that are actually Mitch McConnell’s doing. It has become increasingly clear that Trump is just a figurehead who the grownups in the GOP are happy to let ramble incoherently while they get on with tax cuts, appointing judges, and dismantling regulations.
     
    That's overstating things, but basically yeah.

    It should be said though that Trump's status as a figurehead is actually important. A very significant percentage of our political world is perfectly happy to define American politics through the lens of Trump: Trump himself, CNN and the like part of MSM, Hannity/Limbaugh and their listeners, NeverTrump former conservatives, Resistance-minded libs, etc. They're all on different sides of the issue, but all their motivations are pretty Trump-centric.

    Things would look a lot different if he weren't around.
  101. @education realist
    @Boethiuss

    I don't know that spring break at Daytona was "stupid". but rather than say "don't do it", I'd limit beach attendance, spending money on security to dramatically reduce crowds. Sure, that'd suck. But it'd keep the businesses open, and paying for security is a lot cheaper than paying for 3-5 million unemployed.

    Disneyland and other resort destinations--again, dramatic reductions in attendance. Driving is ok, but air travel less so. Airplanes can't be full. Probably means prices increase.

    Use hotels to house elderly or other vulnerable populations who are living with family members or in areas where they can't easily get around without lots of contact. That will take up some of their slack, and feeding them will also keep staff employed.

    Nursing home staff is the one people keep bringing up, which is moronic. Oh dear, a nursing staff person might get infected if we don't shut down the world. So? Nursing home staff are going to grocery stores and living with family members now. Do temperature tests, scrub them down, and come up with other means of limiting contacts.

    And so on.

    I find it inexplicable that people would judge people going to spring break as "stupid". they're not doing what you would do. So the fuck what? Decide what the limit is.

    But no, much easier to kill the economy and then spend trillions giving *everyone* money, even social security, welfare, and fully employed people because politicians are fuckwits.

    Replies: @Boethiuss, @Peter Akuleyev

    The UK tried the Education Realist approach for about a week. Things started spiraling out of control so quickly the government panicked and went to full lockdown. However, Sweden is still on the business as usual within limits plan, let’s see how that goes.

    The US missed the chance to be Taiwan about 6 weeks ago, around the time Trump was still referring to the Corona Virus as a hoax.

    • Replies: @Mr McKenna
    @Peter Akuleyev


    Trump was still referring to the Corona Virus as a hoax.
     
    Citation please? I believe that Trump was referring to the Dems' treatment of the issue.

    Replies: @Peter Akuleyev

    , @MEH 0910
    @Peter Akuleyev

    https://twitter.com/TIME/status/1243535061246500864

    , @education realist
    @Peter Akuleyev

    Wrong. England did nothing. Doing nothing would allow uncontrolled spread of the virus, which is clearly not what I'm advocating. But whatever.

    Replies: @Peter Akuleyev

  102. @Thomas

    Trump is good at conveying good news, but not good at conveying bad news. So when there is bad news, don’t expect him to convey very vividly what it is.
     
    The corollary to that may be that he was going to have an easy time of being President in easy times with lots of good news. But now, with an actual crisis, the shift to "wartime President" may not be proving all that effective.

    Replies: @anonguy, @Dave Pinsen

    Trump’s approval rating on his handling of the virus is 60-38 in favor according to Gallop.

    Since he declared a national emergency, Trump has briefed the country, with experts on hand, 7 days per week. I’m not sure what critics want Trump to do that he hasn’t done yet. Ideally, he would have called for a shutdown earlier, but I’m not sure it would have been politically possible for him (remember, he was still in an impeachment trial going into February), and, in any case, governors seem to have the authority for these shutdowns.

    The real screw-ups have been at the FDA and the CDC, preventing the rapid manufacture of new masks and screwing up the test production. How much power does Trump, or any POTUS, have over the career civil servants in those agencies?

    • Replies: @Mr McKenna
    @Dave Pinsen

    No issue with your points, but keep in mind that GWB's approval rating was relatively mediocre until the day after 9/11. But what had we really learned that day about GWB, aside from the fact that he and the government had failed to keep this country safe? His approval rating shot up to ~90%.

    https://www.jstor.org/stable/3792592?seq=1

    Replies: @UK, @Joseph Doaks, @dfordoom

    , @The Germ Theory of Disease
    @Dave Pinsen

    In December and January, when a dangerous highly contagious pandemic was brewing in China, a country with tremendous international reach and penetration to every nook in the globe, during that time which presented a critical early action window, Democrats and their mouthpieces in the media and academia decided unanimously, in one loud, sonorous, screeching voice, that the most vital priority of the nation was to investigate and impeach the president for possibly saying something mean to some guy in Ukraine.

    They were on record about this, loud and clear: the well-known potential epidemic (I was making jokes about bat soup over Christmas dinner) was not mentioned by Democrats and their megaphone buddies at all --- no no no, no sir, the first and only order of business was Orange Man said something which bafflingly had something to do with Ukraine arms expenditures which nobody understands, and Creepy Joe's drug-addled son. Defending the honor of Hunter Biden and his stripper baby-mama was top priority for Democrats, even if it regrettably meant taking a president's scalp.

    Do not ever let them forget this.

    When Trump banned travel entry from China at end of Jan, the left and Dems howled racism, and NYT and WaPo moaned that "studies" and "experts" had shown that restricting international travel does not diminish a highly contagious international disease. That was the leftist line: Orange Man Racist, no further nuance.

    Do not ever let the, forget this.

    If Trump had rolled out social distancing, a nationwide work stoppage and the stock market tanked, all back on 2/1/20, the left would have been screaming Nazi! Racist! Authoritarian madness! He's gonna put us all in caaaaamps!! Trump destroyed the Dow, which we suddenly want to be high, he ruined the economy with his draconian Nazi policies without evidence. And they'd all be handcuffing themselves to the nearest Chunese person in protest.

    Do not ever let them forget this.

    Replies: @Redneck farmer, @Rob (LM), @Anon7

    , @PiltdownMan
    @Dave Pinsen

    Trump is likely in a stronger position than those who are criticizing his positive talk during this crisis are assuming. Although the economy will have tanked by November, he will be able to blame it on the virus, and avoid any accusation of personal failure in stewardship of the economy.

    Also, November is far away enough, that it is possible the markets will rebound in time for the fall election campaign—if the worst phase of this crisis proves to an affair lasting only a few months. He can also, and will, take direct credit for the grand in cash every voter would have received by then. And if a follow up stimulus package happens, as many are suggesting, he'll get a lift from that, too.

    Replies: @Ron Mexico, @BB753

    , @Thomas
    @Dave Pinsen

    Check back in a few weeks, see what the current situation is on the outbreak and how his approval is then. Events are developing quickly and the trend with this crisis is we find out what the underlying situation actually is 2-3 weeks later.


    I’m not sure what critics want Trump to do that he hasn’t done yet. Ideally, he would have called for a shutdown earlier, but I’m not sure it would have been politically possible for him (remember, he was still in an impeachment trial going into February), and, in any case, governors seem to have the authority for these shutdowns.
     
    Trump hasn't called for a shutdown at all, just the 15 days of social distancing measures. Yes, governors are the ones who order shutdowns. I'm not 100% convinced that the President couldn't order a shutdown/quarantine though legally. Either way, some governors (Tate Reeves in Mississippi, Ron DeSantis in Florida) appear to be taking their cues from Trump. More problematic: his consistent mixed messaging and minimization of the situation ("look how many people the flu kills!" "We can't let the cure be worse than the disease!") is being followed, I'm afraid, by people who've gotten too used to listening to him and discarding any contradictory information. In this crisis, that could have deadly consequences. Beyond that, there's the passive, incoherent direction of federal policy, under which his Administration is refusing to take the lead and coordinate a response.

    The real screw-ups have been at the FDA and the CDC, preventing the rapid manufacture of new masks and screwing up the test production. How much power does Trump, or any POTUS, have over the career civil servants in those agencies?
     
    The President ultimately is the Executive Branch, under the Constitution. He appoints the people who are supposed to head those agencies. (Though in Trump's case, that's more a matter of him not having appointed them, or having continually replaced those people.) "The buck stops here," as Harry Truman said. Ultimately, he will be the one whose handling of this crisis the voters will pass judgment on, so kicking blame downstairs probably won't fly. What powers Trump does have, for example, using the Defense Production Act to manufacture masks or other needed equipment, he's not using, apparently for ideological reasons. (Heck of a time for him to become a Koch/Cato libertarian.) Even conservatives should recognize that this is a time for the "watchman state" to act.

    Replies: @Jack D

    , @Corvinus
    @Dave Pinsen

    "The real screw-ups have been at the FDA and the CDC, preventing the rapid manufacture of new masks and screwing up the test production."

    That would fall on the Trump Administration, as the executive branch oversees their efforts. Remember, it took a visit from a Fox News personality to finally realize that Covid-19 was serious.

    As far as this poll, we need context. Like the other polls, the results fell along party lines. Other polls have shown Trump's overall job approval rating has risen. But if Trump's approval is increasing due to a "rally effect", it appears to be modest compared with the rise in support for other presidents dealing with crises. After 911, President George W. Bush's approval rating spiked 35 percentage points, according to Gallup. "There is a rally effect happening, but the rally is extraordinarily weak compared to other modern presidents," Larry Sabato, the director of the University of Virginia's Center for Politics, told USA TODAY. "Incredibly, Trump still hasn’t crossed the 50% mark in job approval – a much more important measure than public views about Trump’s handling of the pandemic. Why is that? Americans either love Trump or hate Trump, and the vast majority will never change their evaluation".

    Replies: @PhysicistDave

  103. @black sea
    @anonguy

    I noticed this as well. In yesterday's Daily Mail, they wrote about a "fit and healthy" 47 year old who died alone, but when you see his photographs he looks like a grossly obese 55 year old. Of course, his story was quite sad -- he died alone due to self-imposed quarantine -- but that doesn't make him "fit and healthy."

    https://www.dailymail.co.uk/news/article-8154747/Fit-healthy-banker-dies-coronavirus-isolation.html

    Replies: @anonguy, @BB753, @Hibernian, @Jonathan Mason

    Relative risk isn’t provided, but the CDC is now listing it specifically as a top level, independent risk factor category like advanced age.

    Of course, the Chinese were indicating this from late January, but it was a lesser concern for them due to the low prevalence in their society. Smoking and bad air seemed to be their bigger nation-specific risk factors.

    This is going to be a big deal in the West if the disease continues to spread.

    And it doesn’t even have to be so gruesome as a lot of deaths. Just the potential for an ugly death for themselves rather than someone’s grandma in a nursing home makes it harder to cajole people back to work, so societal effects, work refusals, etc.

    Once 40% of the population, and that is only the officially obese, high BMI < obese probably isn't too good either, figures out they have similar risk to the old folks, and, obesity being more prevalent in lower classes with less options for working at home, well, you do the calculus.

    Mexico, phenomenal prevalence of obesity, is beginning to wake up to the threat. At first they thought they were off the hook being a relatively young society.

    Google it yourself.

    FWIW, I commented on this a number of weeks ago, that high BMI nations, and over medicated USA, which still hasn't manifested as a factor but undoubtedly will, would tend to make this less of only an old person's concern in populations with those characteristics.

    • Replies: @anonguy
    @anonguy

    I'd think one of the number crunchers here could make short work of the risk factor categories and figure what percentage of USA population falls in high risk?

    I'm going to guess greater than 50%, just between age and obesity among the non-aged. And there are a bunch of other categories.

    Replies: @res

  104. Now is the time for more aggro! It’s like when you are playing a video game (Deep State Manager) and think it’s a good idea to take on a few pirate-level side quests while there is a dual boss fight coming on:

    Trump signs TAIPEI Act, threatening ‘consequences’ for nations that fail to toe US line on Taiwan

    US State Dept offers $15 MILLION REWARD for help arresting Venezuela’s Maduro after indictments

    US puts NEW sanctions on Iran, despite calls for relief amid massive coronavirus outbreak

    Kaiser Wilhelm II twitching in his grave.

  105. @Dano
    Someone, please....get Steve a drink. Make it a big one.
    Here's a guy who should be shredding the hysteria...buying into it?
    Please Steve, turn off your TV.

    Replies: @scrivener3, @Kronos, @JimDandy, @Mike1

    Ok, not looking for an argument here. I’m looking for clarification. The people calling this an enormous over reaction/hoax point to death rates. But are ICUs not actually being overwhelmed, in ways that haven’t happened in previous regular ol’ flu seasons? Are those all crisis actors? Is the overwhelming of the ICUs not an enormous problem for many reasons, not the least of which being the fact that people without the virus who need the ICU will die when in any other year the would have lived?

    What am I missing here? And, again, I accept the fact that I might be missing something.

    • Replies: @RichardTaylor
    @JimDandy


    But are ICUs not actually being overwhelmed, in ways that haven’t happened in previous regular ol’ flu seasons?
     
    Where are ICUs in America clogged?

    I did hear hospitals in NYC are getting a lot of hypochondriacs in the waiting rooms.

    Does anyone know if ICUs across the country are overwhelmed?

    Replies: @anon, @JimDandy, @Anonymous

    , @Spud Boy
    @JimDandy

    Absent a map of every hospital / ICU in the United States, with an accompanying chart showing its current status in terms of available beds, ICU beds, ventilators, medications for treatment, etc, how do we know what the hell to believe?

    I don't accept Twitter photos as evidence of anything.
    .
    .

    , @Thatgirl
    @JimDandy


    But are ICUs not actually being overwhelmed, in ways that haven’t happened in previous regular ol’ flu seasons? Are those all crisis actors? Is the overwhelming of the ICUs not an enormous problem for many reasons, not the least of which being the fact that people without the virus who need the ICU will die when in any other year the would have lived?

    What am I missing here?
     
    I have wondered too a great deal about this particular point.

    Like everyone else I can only speculate but I believe it is in part the panic itself that is driving the overwhelming of the hospitals.

    Last year, 80,000 Americans died of the flu but almost none of those people died in the hospital. Instead, they died in nursing homes or in their own beds. Now, because of the panic, their frightened families and caregivers are taking them to the hospital. This is what has overwhelmed the hospitals, not necessarily an increase in the numbers of sick people (although that has also occurred) but just the numbers going to the hospital.

    Replies: @JimDandy

  106. @education realist
    @Ron Unz

    Geez, I don't know: what in the world is a Ron Unz? I'm the only one of the three of us using a non-name. Philippe is a PhD candidate at Cornell; Ben is an English writer who lives in Poland. Both are plenty smart.

    As for the "oh, you must not know math"--Sigh. How tedious and unoriginal. And how boring an argument.

    I freely admit that for a math teacher, I'm an excellent English major. But then,math is my *weak* subject and I score in the 96+ percentile, so I'm kind of figuring that's more than smart enough to grasp your rather ordinary point. It's certainly obvious my verbal skills are a shit ton better than yours, so we can call it even.

    So focus hard, and see if you can grasp this: There's a big distance between doing nothing and killing the economy. There's plenty of room to reduce transmission without sending everyone home. Figure that killing the economy results in X deaths, and doing less than killing the economy but still reducing transmission results in X + Y deaths.

    Issue is size of Y. Your graph is irrelevant. Everybody gets the graph, Ron. Nobody likes pedants.

    Replies: @Boethiuss, @Mr McKenna, @dfordoom, @Corvinus

    Your graph is irrelevant.

    Says you! It clearly shows that those who are expert at mathematics are becoming infected–and indeed dying–at significantly lower rates than normies.

    Oh wait, I was holding it upside down.

  107. @Peter Akuleyev
    @education realist

    The UK tried the Education Realist approach for about a week. Things started spiraling out of control so quickly the government panicked and went to full lockdown. However, Sweden is still on the business as usual within limits plan, let’s see how that goes.

    The US missed the chance to be Taiwan about 6 weeks ago, around the time Trump was still referring to the Corona Virus as a hoax.

    Replies: @Mr McKenna, @MEH 0910, @education realist

    Trump was still referring to the Corona Virus as a hoax.

    Citation please? I believe that Trump was referring to the Dems’ treatment of the issue.

    • Replies: @Peter Akuleyev
    @Mr McKenna

    That is the weakest defense of Trump imaginable. No one is claiming that Trump was saying the virus does not exist, he was saying that the Democrats talking about a coming pandemic were perpetrating a hoax. Do you think he was right? Of course, there are still millions of Americans who think the response to a virus is a hoax. Many of them frequent these forums. Trump to this day continues to waffle and talks about the flu being just as lethal and car crashes and whatever.

    To be fair, in Europe the situation is often reversed. Salvini in Italy was the strongest voice for taking strong measures back in early February when the Left was still diddling around, and plenty of Marxists in France are still convinced the whole thing is a plot to keep demonstrators off the streets and hurt the workers. Orban has shut his entire country down. Putin, nota bene, wears full protection when he visits hospitals and practices social distancing, he seems to take the virus very seriously.

    Replies: @Biggest Shoe, @Mr McKenna, @e

  108. @Dave Pinsen
    @Thomas

    Trump's approval rating on his handling of the virus is 60-38 in favor according to Gallop.

    https://twitter.com/GallupNews/status/1242768434632503296?s=20

    Since he declared a national emergency, Trump has briefed the country, with experts on hand, 7 days per week. I'm not sure what critics want Trump to do that he hasn't done yet. Ideally, he would have called for a shutdown earlier, but I'm not sure it would have been politically possible for him (remember, he was still in an impeachment trial going into February), and, in any case, governors seem to have the authority for these shutdowns.

    The real screw-ups have been at the FDA and the CDC, preventing the rapid manufacture of new masks and screwing up the test production. How much power does Trump, or any POTUS, have over the career civil servants in those agencies?

    Replies: @Mr McKenna, @The Germ Theory of Disease, @PiltdownMan, @Thomas, @Corvinus

    No issue with your points, but keep in mind that GWB’s approval rating was relatively mediocre until the day after 9/11. But what had we really learned that day about GWB, aside from the fact that he and the government had failed to keep this country safe? His approval rating shot up to ~90%.

    https://www.jstor.org/stable/3792592?seq=1

    • Agree: Ron Unz, Thomas
    • Replies: @UK
    @Mr McKenna

    Events like that bring perspective to our hysterical culture. Prior to 9/11, Bush was literally Hitler and all that mad jazz. Immediately after 9/11, Americans who thought so we're given something to calibrate their emotions off, and so calmed down. Of course that effect didn't last long and he soon went back to being whatever his opponents' emotional state demanded.

    He turned out to be a poor President but the constant unmoored craziness of people's descriptions of him shows a serious lack of imagination on their part, and a whole heap of then fighting their own demons.

    , @Joseph Doaks
    @Mr McKenna

    What the American people want is a daddy figure who will tell them that everything will be O.K.

    , @dfordoom
    @Mr McKenna


    But what had we really learned that day about GWB, aside from the fact that he and the government had failed to keep this country safe? His approval rating shot up to ~90%.
     
    It seems like the public's initial response in a crisis is to rally around the current leader, even if the current leader is the one who caused the crisis.

    If the crisis continues they start to get disillusioned that the guy to whom they were looking for strong leadership turns out to have no idea what he's doing (like LBJ in Vietnam).

    If an election were held tomorrow Trump would win in a landslide. But by November, unless Trump really lucks out, the voters could be out for his blood.
  109. FDR, LBJ, and Nixon were all men cut out for political action in the traditional mode.

    And they all sucked and made things worse.

    From FDR dicking around with the economy, to LBJ getting deep in Vietnam and giving us the welfare state and “civil” rights, to Nixon actually enforcing the anti-White agenda. Please, God, no more.

  110. @Peter Akuleyev
    @Boethiuss

    Speaker Pelosi’s failed attempt to grab the agenda away from President Trump earlier this week.

    Trump gets a lot of credit here (and generally) for doing things that are actually Mitch McConnell’s doing. It has become increasingly clear that Trump is just a figurehead who the grownups in the GOP are happy to let ramble incoherently while they get on with tax cuts, appointing judges, and dismantling regulations.

    Replies: @Boethiuss

    Trump gets a lot of credit here (and generally) for doing things that are actually Mitch McConnell’s doing. It has become increasingly clear that Trump is just a figurehead who the grownups in the GOP are happy to let ramble incoherently while they get on with tax cuts, appointing judges, and dismantling regulations.

    That’s overstating things, but basically yeah.

    It should be said though that Trump’s status as a figurehead is actually important. A very significant percentage of our political world is perfectly happy to define American politics through the lens of Trump: Trump himself, CNN and the like part of MSM, Hannity/Limbaugh and their listeners, NeverTrump former conservatives, Resistance-minded libs, etc. They’re all on different sides of the issue, but all their motivations are pretty Trump-centric.

    Things would look a lot different if he weren’t around.

  111. @Dave Pinsen
    @Thomas

    Trump's approval rating on his handling of the virus is 60-38 in favor according to Gallop.

    https://twitter.com/GallupNews/status/1242768434632503296?s=20

    Since he declared a national emergency, Trump has briefed the country, with experts on hand, 7 days per week. I'm not sure what critics want Trump to do that he hasn't done yet. Ideally, he would have called for a shutdown earlier, but I'm not sure it would have been politically possible for him (remember, he was still in an impeachment trial going into February), and, in any case, governors seem to have the authority for these shutdowns.

    The real screw-ups have been at the FDA and the CDC, preventing the rapid manufacture of new masks and screwing up the test production. How much power does Trump, or any POTUS, have over the career civil servants in those agencies?

    Replies: @Mr McKenna, @The Germ Theory of Disease, @PiltdownMan, @Thomas, @Corvinus

    In December and January, when a dangerous highly contagious pandemic was brewing in China, a country with tremendous international reach and penetration to every nook in the globe, during that time which presented a critical early action window, Democrats and their mouthpieces in the media and academia decided unanimously, in one loud, sonorous, screeching voice, that the most vital priority of the nation was to investigate and impeach the president for possibly saying something mean to some guy in Ukraine.

    They were on record about this, loud and clear: the well-known potential epidemic (I was making jokes about bat soup over Christmas dinner) was not mentioned by Democrats and their megaphone buddies at all — no no no, no sir, the first and only order of business was Orange Man said something which bafflingly had something to do with Ukraine arms expenditures which nobody understands, and Creepy Joe’s drug-addled son. Defending the honor of Hunter Biden and his stripper baby-mama was top priority for Democrats, even if it regrettably meant taking a president’s scalp.

    Do not ever let them forget this.

    When Trump banned travel entry from China at end of Jan, the left and Dems howled racism, and NYT and WaPo moaned that “studies” and “experts” had shown that restricting international travel does not diminish a highly contagious international disease. That was the leftist line: Orange Man Racist, no further nuance.

    Do not ever let the, forget this.

    If Trump had rolled out social distancing, a nationwide work stoppage and the stock market tanked, all back on 2/1/20, the left would have been screaming Nazi! Racist! Authoritarian madness! He’s gonna put us all in caaaaamps!! Trump destroyed the Dow, which we suddenly want to be high, he ruined the economy with his draconian Nazi policies without evidence. And they’d all be handcuffing themselves to the nearest Chunese person in protest.

    Do not ever let them forget this.

    • Replies: @Redneck farmer
    @The Germ Theory of Disease

    Now, now, don't remind people of what would in all likelihood would have happened. Trump hasn't deported every illegal, nuked Israel, and executed all the Africans in America; all the things certain blackpillers apparently thought would happen.

    Replies: @The Germ Theory of Disease

    , @Rob (LM)
    @The Germ Theory of Disease

    If there had been no impeachment and nothing of interest happening domestically between December and February, you think Trump would have sensed the danger and leapt into action to protect the American public from Covid19? That seems pretty unlikely to me. He was still calling it a 'Democrat hoax' even as it was killing Americans in Washington.

    , @Anon7
    @The Germ Theory of Disease

    Exactly. I seem to remember from my 9th grade civics classes that one of the arguments for having a Chief Executive with broad powers is that he could react more quickly in times of crisis than a big bicameral legislature and civil service bureaucracy.

    The Democrats must take the blame for having hamstrung our President at exactly the time we needed him. In particular, Nancy Pelosi, the first woman to be Speaker of the House, and the highest elected female official in the United States, is fully responsible for this catastrophe. She's a disaster.

  112. @education realist
    Like many here, I completely disagree with Steve on this and have found it interesting how the skeptic community has broken up over this. Steve. JayMan, Claire Lehmann seem to think it's fine to bankrupt the economy in the name of "Just One Less Death", whereas Philippe, Ben SixSmith and others were worried at first but now worry we've overreacted. Others, like me, are pretty appalled at things like Claire Lehmann, High Priestess of Open Thought, approving Medium pulling that article, or Steve saying hey, we've already done the damage so let's do more until we can see some benefit. And I've literally blocked Jay, he's so obnoxious.

    But I shouldn't be surprised at Steve; he has always valued ends over means. That's not a cut; he just thinks pragmatically.

    In any event, he's completely wrong on this. We're hurting our younger generations so a bunch of health nuts and establishment worshipping media can get off on extreme reactions so they can feel heroic.

    Replies: @utu, @Testing12, @Boethiuss, @Ron Unz, @Dave Pinsen, @ben tillman

    Others, like me, are pretty appalled at things like Claire Lehmann, High Priestess of Open Thought, approving Medium pulling that article

    She said she didn’t think Medium should have pulled it.

  113. @R.G. Camara
    @Coemgen

    Pence is one of those sober, somber, boring Washington-speakers that Trump cannot be. This was precisely the sort of situation Trump needed him for; while Trump projects excitement onto people (for good or for ill), Pence projects calm stoic boringness and yet also a well-informed manner, while Trump largely seems to be improv.

    Trump got Pence for the gravitas needed for bad situations where Trump's excitement might be a hindrance. In a crisis, you want a boring, low-key guy as one of the public faces, because everyone calms down.

    Replies: @Dave Pinsen, @Anonymous, @Unladen Swallow, @Twodees Partain

    Pence is a Dr. Early type.

    • Replies: @Corvinus
    @Dave Pinsen

    Based on your experiences, sure, the archetypes fit. For other people, not so much. To each, their own.

    http://www.physicianleadership.com/articles/physician_archetypes.htm

    Replies: @William Badwhite

  114. @Anonymous
    @Coemgen


    I’ve long been wondering why Trump picked Mike Pence as his “lieutenant.” Of course, he has his Christian creds but he’s another “not so great” at teleprompter reading. Yet, he’s been fantastic as Dr Pence during this pandemic. His bedside manner is world-class.
     
    Don’t forget, President Trump is a boomer. Boomers work under the same cultural references only they can understand. Consequently, he picked Pence simply because of his uncanny resemblance to Race Bannon.

    Pence's job, like Bannon's, is to protect President Trump from would-be World dominators, and terror-minded thieves.

    Hope this helps.

    https://youtu.be/ToQ-S1g8CJM

    Replies: @Harry Baldwin

    he picked Pence simply because of his uncanny resemblance to Race Bannon.

    Good point, but it doesn’t explain why he fired Steve ACTUAL Bannon.

    • Replies: @anonymous
    @Harry Baldwin



    he picked Pence simply because of his uncanny resemblance to Race Bannon.
     
    Good point, but it doesn’t explain why he fired Steve ACTUAL Bannon.
     
    Maybe because he seemed too much like "Racist Bannon."
  115. @Rob (London)
    @Polynikes

    Either of those presidents would at least have had a pandemic prevention unit to call on. Trump in his infinite wisdom decided that because there wasn't a pandemic happening at the time, it wasn't needed.

    Replies: @wren, @Harry Baldwin, @ben tillman

    My understanding is that that is a “fake news” talking point.

    https://legalinsurrection.com/2020/03/media-hoaxes-no-trump-did-not-disband-wh-pandemic-office-cut-cdc-work-from-49-to-10-countries-or-refuse-who-testing-kits/

    The people were still there in the NSC.

  116. @Rob (London)
    @Polynikes

    Either of those presidents would at least have had a pandemic prevention unit to call on. Trump in his infinite wisdom decided that because there wasn't a pandemic happening at the time, it wasn't needed.

    Replies: @wren, @Harry Baldwin, @ben tillman

    Yes, of course! The key to solving any problem is to create a government agency full of bureaucrats charged with solving that problem. When has that ever failed us?

    • Replies: @Achmed E. Newman
    @Harry Baldwin

    Rob is right. This whole thing could have been handled with ease if we'd only had a Flu Czar in place. Remember the time of the American Czars? They were there for those odd times when the Feral Gov't bureaucracy just wasn't getting the job done with efficiency and alacrity. Peak Stupidity wondered two years ago Where have all the Czars gone? ... long time passing...

    , @Rob (LM)
    @Harry Baldwin

    No one asked him to create one, just maybe leave in place the one that was already there. Would it have helped? We'll never know now will we.

    Replies: @Harry Baldwin

  117. @anonguy
    @Thomas


    But now, with an actual crisis, the shift to “wartime President” may not be proving all that effective.
     
    One of his ongoing bits was that he could be as presidential as the most presidential president, in his estimation, Lincoln, but we would all be bored.

    When this virus stuff started, I thought, ok dude, here is your chance and he has never missed an opportunity to miss an opportunity.

    IMO at least as much of it to mental decline due to aging as mendacity, etc. He's supposedly an OCD germophobe, for cryin' out loud.

    Gerontocracy, like obesity, we have so much of it around it has become normalized and we fail to see it.

    LIke the Daily Mail articles popping up now about "fit and healthy" people with no comorbidities dyijng in their 30s/40s but you look at the pics and the individual is clearly quite overweight.

    Replies: @Louis Renault, @The Last Real Calvinist, @black sea, @Kratoklastes

    LIke the Daily Mail articles popping up now about “fit and healthy” people with no comorbidities dyijng in their 30s/40s but you look at the pics and the individual is clearly quite overweight.

    It’s painful to watch TPTWTCTB (The Powers That Want To Continue To Be), parading any victim that can be passed off as ‘just like you the viewer’.

    It’s reminiscent of the “heterosexuals can get AIDS” shit from the 80s.

    I’ve previously confessed that I never saw the Oprah episode in which she claimed that “20% of heterosexual Americans would die of AIDS in the next three years“… but as a 20-something I was still (vaguely) aware of flimsy amateur-theatrics trying to convince non-pillowbiters that they would get AIDS.

    The “Look at this normal looking 30-something guy who died of covid19” bullshit will convince mostly women (a lot of whom are not up to the rigours of 8th grade mathematics, and could not process the difference between anecdotes and data if you threatened to kill their children).

    That’s the target market: people who don’t understand statistics, probability and so forth.

    If a supermodel-looking 20-something chicksie ever dies of covid19, the orgasms in the DailyMail ‘SheMail’ magazine editorial staff would be heard halfway round the world.

    If a proper famous (TOWIE, MAFS, Geordie Shore or Kardashian) ever got it, the editorial staff would cum themselves to death immediately.

    • Replies: @anonguy
    @Kratoklastes

    Your comment is inane and I'm certain the only reason Steve allows such word and idea salad is so that you will feel important and contribute during fund drive.

    But anyhow, if TPTB, if such a thing exists, were trying to scare people, dontcha think they'd be saying that we are all going to die because we don't have enough masks?

    That is super low hanging fruit. But no, masks don't work spewage.

    The facts are bad enough, you don't even need to make things up.

    Yesterday, NYC had record EMS medical calls, 6406, surpassed 9/11 even.

    When do you think it will be under that number again?

    Replies: @peterike, @Kratoklastes

    , @AnotherDad
    @Kratoklastes


    It’s reminiscent of the “heterosexuals can get AIDS” shit from the 80s.
     
    Ah, that media shit show. Full court press of lies to try and con everyone that this wasn't essentially the male homosexual anonymous bathhouse anal orgy disease which it clearly was.

    We were told serial and often simultaneously:
    -- nothing wrong with homosexual behavior
    -- couldn't do normal VD partner tracking as that was "stigmatizing"
    -- closing gay bathhouses was discrimination
    -- homosexuals were no different than heterosexuals, just a matter of "who you loved"
    -- everyone was equally at risk
    -- AIDS was going to explode ... millions of Americans would die
    -- everyone needed to wear a condom and practice safe sex
    -- AIDS was the greatest crisis of our time and need to have all the medical research funding--forget about trivial stuff like, oh, cancer
    -- AIDS was exploding in Africa and would kill hundreds of millions and depopulate Africa
    -- AIDS was the #1 problem in the world

    I was physics grad student--viruses, epidemiology not my bailiwick--and it was obvious that this was absolute nonsense. Absolute nonsense. It was obvious that this was driven by the unnatural acts of homosexuals and their extreme promiscuity in their unnatural acts, and that there would be no explosion of AIDS in the normal community. And i told everyone that.

    Then they ginned up the whole African AIDS thing--i guess to tap the black victim trope--and for a while managed to get a ridiculous number of "AIDS" deaths in Africa. Everything from dying of malnutrition to being eaten by a crocodile was from "AIDS".

    Furthermore a venereal disease--unlike a respiratory illness--simply can not be a threat to civilization. Even if it is devastatingly lethal, all that's required to stop it is ... stopping promiscuity! It actually supports, encourages the restrained sexual behavior that undergirds civilization.

    The whole thing was the Jewish minoritization of homosexuals. Minority--good, virtuous; majority--bad, bigoted. Minority bad behavior leading to the majority's disfavor or hostility ... really means the majority are bigots (racists! anti-Semites, Islamophobes, xenophobes, homophobes ... ) and the minority are heroes. You piss off normal people--ergo you are good, they are bad. Such compelling "logic"!

    And ... it worked! Dissolute homos and their wildly promiscuous anal intercourse generated a nasty disease ... and the result was gay liberation, faggification of everything and homosexual marriage.

    I guess that's a clear warning to people like me. This crisis is obviously generated by globalization, open borders and cavalier establishment behavior--unpreparedness--for the obvious consequences.

    So i guess i should expect to quickly learn that it actually was caused by xenophobia and we need open borders, more international collaboration and everyone should try bat soup.

  118. Perhaps of interest. (I understand the modeling factors all this in.)

    On the predictive models and observed patterns thus far:

    https://www.c-span.org/video/?c4864096/dr-deborah-birx-modeling

    The current status regarding ventilators.

    https://www.c-span.org/video/?c4864136/user-clip-dr-birx-ventilators

  119. @The Germ Theory of Disease
    @Dave Pinsen

    In December and January, when a dangerous highly contagious pandemic was brewing in China, a country with tremendous international reach and penetration to every nook in the globe, during that time which presented a critical early action window, Democrats and their mouthpieces in the media and academia decided unanimously, in one loud, sonorous, screeching voice, that the most vital priority of the nation was to investigate and impeach the president for possibly saying something mean to some guy in Ukraine.

    They were on record about this, loud and clear: the well-known potential epidemic (I was making jokes about bat soup over Christmas dinner) was not mentioned by Democrats and their megaphone buddies at all --- no no no, no sir, the first and only order of business was Orange Man said something which bafflingly had something to do with Ukraine arms expenditures which nobody understands, and Creepy Joe's drug-addled son. Defending the honor of Hunter Biden and his stripper baby-mama was top priority for Democrats, even if it regrettably meant taking a president's scalp.

    Do not ever let them forget this.

    When Trump banned travel entry from China at end of Jan, the left and Dems howled racism, and NYT and WaPo moaned that "studies" and "experts" had shown that restricting international travel does not diminish a highly contagious international disease. That was the leftist line: Orange Man Racist, no further nuance.

    Do not ever let the, forget this.

    If Trump had rolled out social distancing, a nationwide work stoppage and the stock market tanked, all back on 2/1/20, the left would have been screaming Nazi! Racist! Authoritarian madness! He's gonna put us all in caaaaamps!! Trump destroyed the Dow, which we suddenly want to be high, he ruined the economy with his draconian Nazi policies without evidence. And they'd all be handcuffing themselves to the nearest Chunese person in protest.

    Do not ever let them forget this.

    Replies: @Redneck farmer, @Rob (LM), @Anon7

    Now, now, don’t remind people of what would in all likelihood would have happened. Trump hasn’t deported every illegal, nuked Israel, and executed all the Africans in America; all the things certain blackpillers apparently thought would happen.

    • Replies: @The Germ Theory of Disease
    @Redneck farmer

    "Trump hasn't deported every illegal, nuked Israel, and executed all the Africans..."

    If Trump had done nothing more than kept his pledge to nuke Israel, the illegals and the Africans and every other durn problem would have just solved themselves.

  120. @JimDandy
    @Dano

    Ok, not looking for an argument here. I'm looking for clarification. The people calling this an enormous over reaction/hoax point to death rates. But are ICUs not actually being overwhelmed, in ways that haven't happened in previous regular ol' flu seasons? Are those all crisis actors? Is the overwhelming of the ICUs not an enormous problem for many reasons, not the least of which being the fact that people without the virus who need the ICU will die when in any other year the would have lived?

    What am I missing here? And, again, I accept the fact that I might be missing something.

    Replies: @RichardTaylor, @Spud Boy, @Thatgirl

    But are ICUs not actually being overwhelmed, in ways that haven’t happened in previous regular ol’ flu seasons?

    Where are ICUs in America clogged?

    I did hear hospitals in NYC are getting a lot of hypochondriacs in the waiting rooms.

    Does anyone know if ICUs across the country are overwhelmed?

    • Replies: @anon
    @RichardTaylor

    That is the signature of this disease. People get sick, 1% end up in ICUs, and don't die right away.

    There are roughly 35 beds per 100,000 Americans. Not enough for even a small surge.

    , @JimDandy
    @RichardTaylor

    That's true, so far it's all "We are very close to being overwhelmed... doctors are privately deciding who will live and who will die under triage..."

    But are you asserting that if America didn't enact social distancing measures, American ICUs still wouldn't have gotten overwhelmed, as they have in Italy and China?

    , @Anonymous
    @RichardTaylor

    Where are ICUs in America clogged?

    I did hear hospitals in NYC are getting a lot of hypochondriacs in the waiting rooms.

    Does anyone know if ICUs across the country are overwhelmed?


    I am employed by a large hospital chain the owns and operates 7 hospitals in Los Angeles County. As of yesterday, the volumes in the ICUs at each of the hospitals were at normal March levels except for one which was 15% higher than normal. Looking pretty good at this point in time. Need to see what happens over the next few weeks

  121. @anonguy
    @black sea

    Relative risk isn't provided, but the CDC is now listing it specifically as a top level, independent risk factor category like advanced age.

    Of course, the Chinese were indicating this from late January, but it was a lesser concern for them due to the low prevalence in their society. Smoking and bad air seemed to be their bigger nation-specific risk factors.

    This is going to be a big deal in the West if the disease continues to spread.

    And it doesn't even have to be so gruesome as a lot of deaths. Just the potential for an ugly death for themselves rather than someone's grandma in a nursing home makes it harder to cajole people back to work, so societal effects, work refusals, etc.

    Once 40% of the population, and that is only the officially obese, high BMI < obese probably isn't too good either, figures out they have similar risk to the old folks, and, obesity being more prevalent in lower classes with less options for working at home, well, you do the calculus.

    Mexico, phenomenal prevalence of obesity, is beginning to wake up to the threat. At first they thought they were off the hook being a relatively young society.

    Google it yourself.

    FWIW, I commented on this a number of weeks ago, that high BMI nations, and over medicated USA, which still hasn't manifested as a factor but undoubtedly will, would tend to make this less of only an old person's concern in populations with those characteristics.

    Replies: @anonguy

    I’d think one of the number crunchers here could make short work of the risk factor categories and figure what percentage of USA population falls in high risk?

    I’m going to guess greater than 50%, just between age and obesity among the non-aged. And there are a bunch of other categories.

    • Replies: @res
    @anonguy

    Do you have a link to a quantitative listing of the risk factors? The best way I see to do this would be to look at one or more of the recent NHANES cycles. The most recent available is 2017-2018: https://wwwn.cdc.gov/nchs/nhanes/continuousnhanes/overview.aspx?BeginYear=2017

    Note the first entry in this list.


    The major objectives of NHANES are to:

    - Estimate the number and percentage of persons in the U.S. population and in designated subgroups with selected diseases and risk factors;
    - Monitor trends in the prevalence, awareness, treatment, and control of selected diseases;
    - Monitor trends in risk behaviors and environmental exposures;
    - Study the relationship between diet, nutrition, and health;
    - Explore emerging public health issues and new technologies; and
    - Provide baseline health characteristics that can be linked to mortality data from the National Death Index or other administrative records (e.g., enrollment and claims data from the Centers for Medicare & Medicaid Services).
     
    The data is population weighted and survey based so seems good for making the kind of estimates you have in mind.

    Replies: @anonguy

  122. @Boethiuss
    @education realist


    But it’d keep the businesses open, and paying for security is a lot cheaper than paying for 3-5 million unemployed.

    Disneyland and other resort destinations–again, dramatic reductions in attendance. Driving is ok, but air travel less so. Airplanes can’t be full. Probably means prices increase.

    Use hotels to house elderly or other vulnerable populations who are living with family members or in areas where they can’t easily get around without lots of contact. That will take up some of their slack, and feeding them will also keep staff employed.
     
    I'd like to be sympathetic to this point of view, and if we're still where we are now by summer, I think we'll go way beyond this. Ie, at that point basically re-open everything, and hope that people have immunity.

    But, the biggest problem I have with the your line of comments on this thread is a lack of precision, even in terms of making a speculation as you are. That's to say, that if we did something along the lines of your suggestion, that would prevent the worst of the economic dislocation. I'm not convinced it would.

    Because in order to maintain economic activity, businesses must be open and have customers. And in your scenario, it seems as though there would be a huge dropoff in customers to the point where I question how much economic benefit there is in the business remaining open. In an extreme case with particular relevance, consider the cruise ship business. Tbh, I'm not sure exactly what virus-related restrictions are in force now. Whatever they are, suppose they were relaxed along the lines of your ideas. Even if the cruise lines were taking money, who's spending? Who really wants to get on a boat and steam from Miami to Jamaica now anyway?

    If we had more concrete answers to this sort of thing, we might be able to make smarter mitigations, specifically those resulting from widespread testing and self-knowledge related to being infected.

    Replies: @Harry Baldwin, @education realist

    In an extreme case with particular relevance, consider the cruise ship business.

    Cruise ships shouldn’t even be on our radar when it comes to saving businesses. They aren’t owned by American companies, don’t pay American taxes, and don’t employ many Americans.

    • Agree: PiltdownMan, Spud Boy
    • Replies: @wren
    @Harry Baldwin

    Agreed.

    https://thehustle.co/the-economics-of-cruise-ships/

    , @Boethiuss
    @Harry Baldwin


    Cruise ships shouldn’t even be on our radar when it comes to saving businesses. They aren’t owned by American companies, don’t pay American taxes, and don’t employ many Americans.
     
    I agree completely. We're talking about "re-opening the economy" though, and my point was we could end all the quarantines, and it doesn't mean people are going to volunteer to go out in the crowd and spend money.
    , @The Wild Geese Howard
    @Harry Baldwin


    Cruise ships shouldn’t even be on our radar when it comes to saving businesses.
     
    Bermuda and Panama are fairly well-off. The cruise lines flagged there should beg them for money.

    As for the line flagged in Liberia, well, sucks to be them.

    Replies: @anon

    , @Daniel Chieh
    @Harry Baldwin

    Of all bailouts, cruise ships were the most mystifying to me.

  123. @Alice
    @Louis Renault

    over 25 years. Before Sept 11. Do you know who Wen Ho Lee is?

    They syarting sending grad students here in the 80s and 90s, men and women on the sciences and engineering. Both attained a academic positions, and the women married non Asian academics as well. They stole routinely, transferring IP to chinese universities and military. They also work on every tech company in the US doing the same.

    But recently China skipped all that, pushing high school students into US schools in the 00s. They began their persuasion program to encourage Chinese language programs and happy Chinese culture influence programs.

    Even more recently they just bribe Americans.

    Replies: @PiltdownMan

    over 25 years. Before Sept 11. Do you know who Wen Ho Lee is?

    They syarting sending grad students here in the 80s and 90s, men and women on the sciences and engineering

    My first grad dorm roommate, in 1980, arrived without warning a few days after school started. He was a physics student from the People’s Republic of China. He said he had been in a work and “education” camp in southern China since the early 1970s, having been pulled out of Beijing University and sent there. He was given a few days notice in the late in the summer of 1980 and told he was going to America, to resume his studies. A really nice guy.

    • Replies: @Steve Sailer
    @PiltdownMan

    He sounds like a character in "The Three Body Problem." America in 1980 must have been paradise for him after all he'd been thru in post-Cultural Revolution China.

    Replies: @Achmed E. Newman, @PiltdownMan

  124. @Bill P
    @wren

    The CCP is dominating Wikipedia on this issue. These treasonous little weasels in tech, media and academia are in full flower right now. They're scared they'll lose the deal they've had with Beijing for the past couple decades, so they're doubling down.

    In the meanwhile, Beijing is locking up foreigners and blaming the US military for the virus while Chinese citizens are walking around smugly with smiles on their faces here in the US.

    Whose country is this?

    Don't beat up Chinese, but feel free to let them know what you think of the CCP. There's no reason they should be comfortable here given what they've put us through. One thing is for sure -- the Chinese are currently abusing American citizens in China.

    Don't let them do that without pushback!

    Replies: @wren, @Anonymous

    I haven’t checked Wikipedia, but my Chinese friends are not really the type to support the CCP. Some day I should ask what they are doing to restore harmony since Xi has so clearly lost the mandate of heaven.

    I think that the CCP has been saying they have no new cases except for foreigners bringing it in because they know that they couldn’t really contain it but want to keep the factories humming while knowing it is going to come back again.

    Then they can blame the foreigners.

    Uyghur twitter claims that Uyghurs are being used as slave labor to restart the factories.

    https://www.twitter.com/zaferer19331944/status/1240597921894195201

    He lives in the Hague, Netherlands.

  125. @Dave Pinsen
    @Thomas

    Trump's approval rating on his handling of the virus is 60-38 in favor according to Gallop.

    https://twitter.com/GallupNews/status/1242768434632503296?s=20

    Since he declared a national emergency, Trump has briefed the country, with experts on hand, 7 days per week. I'm not sure what critics want Trump to do that he hasn't done yet. Ideally, he would have called for a shutdown earlier, but I'm not sure it would have been politically possible for him (remember, he was still in an impeachment trial going into February), and, in any case, governors seem to have the authority for these shutdowns.

    The real screw-ups have been at the FDA and the CDC, preventing the rapid manufacture of new masks and screwing up the test production. How much power does Trump, or any POTUS, have over the career civil servants in those agencies?

    Replies: @Mr McKenna, @The Germ Theory of Disease, @PiltdownMan, @Thomas, @Corvinus

    Trump is likely in a stronger position than those who are criticizing his positive talk during this crisis are assuming. Although the economy will have tanked by November, he will be able to blame it on the virus, and avoid any accusation of personal failure in stewardship of the economy.

    Also, November is far away enough, that it is possible the markets will rebound in time for the fall election campaign—if the worst phase of this crisis proves to an affair lasting only a few months. He can also, and will, take direct credit for the grand in cash every voter would have received by then. And if a follow up stimulus package happens, as many are suggesting, he’ll get a lift from that, too.

    • Replies: @Ron Mexico
    @PiltdownMan

    And his opponent is a living, breathing (for now), gaffing human being who isn't generating a whole lot of enthusiasm and support from his own team.

    , @BB753
    @PiltdownMan

    This outbreak also provides a good excuse for the dimmer contingent of Trump's voters for not having built the wall. After all, the quarantine measures are the closest thing to a wall the Trump administration has ever devised.

  126. @Ron Unz
    @education realist


    Like many here, I completely disagree with Steve on this and have found it interesting how the skeptic community has broken up over this. Steve. JayMan, Claire Lehmann seem to think it’s fine to bankrupt the economy in the name of “Just One Less Death”, whereas Philippe, Ben SixSmith and others were worried at first but now worry we’ve overreacted.... And I’ve literally blocked Jay, he’s so obnoxious.
     
    Well, I'm vaguely familiar with Claire Lehmann, who's the editor of Quillette. But I don't spend my time on Twitter, so I don't have a clue who "Philippe" is. And what in the world is a "Ben SixSmith"?

    Offhand, it sounds like the divide may be between individuals who can do math and individuals who can't. For example, here's a graph someone just provided of the current exponential death-curve for New York:

    https://i.ibb.co/b610g3M/Graph0.png

    https://www.unz.com/runz/correctly-estimating-coronavirus-infections/#comment-3797732

    Replies: @education realist, @Kratoklastes, @Brás Cubas, @John Burns, Gettysburg Partisan, @Intelligent Dasein, @ThreeCranes, @keypusher

    The appropriate calculation ought to go something like this:

    ① adjust ‘covid deaths’ by Pr(false positive) – i.e., reduce them by ~3/4ths[1];
    ② generate some Monte Carlo data under a range of assumptions for a SEIR model, always assuming that Patient Zero arrived in mid-late December 2019;
    ③ see where the ‘probability-adjusted covid deaths‘ line is, in relation to the error bounds obtained from ②.

    (Protip: it’s below the lower bound. I’ve done this exercise, as you might imagine).

    [1] What have the test producers said? That a positive test indicates that the person has something – not definitively the dreaded novel coronavirus 2019.

    They have slammed the door on that aspect of the issue: try and find anything about false POSITIVES on Google and you will be inundated with hundreds of links to stories about why you should still panic because you tested NEGATIVE.

    Of course, the Chicken Littles have been “buk-buk-bukAAAAK“-ing about false negatives, because they are trying – desperately – to keep the mouth-breathers in a state of frisson.

    • Replies: @Steve Sailer
    @Kratoklastes

    But if there are a huge number of False Positives, then we are a really long way away from Herd Immunity, right? Also, the Case Fatality Rate must be higher than estimated, right?

  127. Anonymous[261] • Disclaimer says:
    @Peter Akuleyev
    @Intelligent Dasein

    Clinton would have at least left competent professional administrators in place, there would have been a pandemia response plan and the CDC and FDA would not be run by bootlickers trying to curry favor with the Leader. Trump decided to destroy the Federal government precisely at the moment we actually needed it for something.

    Replies: @Anonymous, @Pericles, @Jenner Ickham Errican, @res

    Hillary would not have had competent administrators. Anybody competent has left the Federal bureaucracy. Federal job holders are qualified by their ability to conform to Democratic politics, and that correlates negatively with ability. Consider the CDC’s initial response to Covid-1. That would still be the CDC response had D. Trump not acted to change it. H. Clinton would have acted to reinforce the initial response so as not to let a crisis go to waste — as N. Schumer is currently trying to do.
    Note that D. Trump has not made incompetent administrators competent. He has instead opened them so something they understand — the “public-private’ business is co-option by civil sector industry, in which civil sector provides the competence that has been exiled from the Federal government..
    Covid-19 is important because it presents the Federal government with a real problem that represents a real threat (shutdown of the “health care” industry) to the American population. The Federal government bureaucracy is proving unable to solve the problem; D. Trump is the only person addressing the problem rather than the politics of postmodernism (which claims the covid-19 problem is real, but dwarfed by intersectional unfairness).
    There has been a serious problem with legitimacy over at least the last 30 years, perhaps the last 60 years. Covid-19 makes the problem impossible to ignore.

    The chief opp0nents of the Deep State are itself and reality. It has been sustained by US military dominance since WW II. Note that there is a covid-19 outbreak aboard an aircraft carrier, crew 5000. The corpsmen have very limited test ability (thanks, CDC). What does this mean for US control of the sea lanes? Without that, US military dominance ends (it’s already over for US ground forces and ending for USAF manned aircraft), and the world gets regional warfare — which confronts the Deep State with problems well beyond its competence, or even beyond its ken.

    So don’t disregard D. Trumps ability to assemble coalitions in the private sector. it’s going to be needed even more than it is now.

    And, please, all you guys on Unz: Stop announcing that you’ve found the Devil and that he’s a political opponent. Ever notice that opponents aren’t mistaken, they are also sexual predictors who live solely to oppress and presumably kick kids dogs around before shooting the kids and having sex with the dogs? In other words, opponents are the Devil. When reading such comments, think that if the commenter is nasty enough to make such claims, he could just as easily make them about you, and what would you do then? Is not this person a threat to you?

    • Replies: @FozzieT
    @Anonymous

    If Hillary had been elected we would not have been going through this crisis at all. The media would have treated it the same way they treated H1N1 when Obama was president. “Hey, there’s a new strain of flu going around. Stay home if you feel sick. Nothing more to see here. Move along, move along.”

    Replies: @The Wild Geese Howard

  128. @Harry Baldwin
    @Boethiuss

    In an extreme case with particular relevance, consider the cruise ship business.

    Cruise ships shouldn't even be on our radar when it comes to saving businesses. They aren't owned by American companies, don't pay American taxes, and don't employ many Americans.

    Replies: @wren, @Boethiuss, @The Wild Geese Howard, @Daniel Chieh

  129. @PiltdownMan
    @Alice


    over 25 years. Before Sept 11. Do you know who Wen Ho Lee is?

    They syarting sending grad students here in the 80s and 90s, men and women on the sciences and engineering
     

    My first grad dorm roommate, in 1980, arrived without warning a few days after school started. He was a physics student from the People's Republic of China. He said he had been in a work and "education" camp in southern China since the early 1970s, having been pulled out of Beijing University and sent there. He was given a few days notice in the late in the summer of 1980 and told he was going to America, to resume his studies. A really nice guy.

    Replies: @Steve Sailer

    He sounds like a character in “The Three Body Problem.” America in 1980 must have been paradise for him after all he’d been thru in post-Cultural Revolution China.

    • Replies: @Achmed E. Newman
    @Steve Sailer

    Indeed. He had to be somebody really special or, more likely, KNEW somebody really special, to get out of that madness and get to come here back when our universities were the best in the world (on the whole, people). A dozen or so Chinese graduate students came to our town in the mid-1980s, and it was an unheard-of-before big deal. They were like men from Mars.

    Alice is pretty much right in her comment, though I'd say, the Chinese influx into graduate schools started just a tad earlier, sometime in the early 1990s. Yes, you never know who was spying, likely more for industry than the Chinese government. Now, besides their filling up every math/science/engineering department, lots of Chinese people are "visiting scholars" in every kind of major, including Education. It's a crock to begin with, and now these people are supposed to illuminate the Schools of Education or take home some of that valuable knowledge from the Professional Educators? Balderdash!

    No, the visiting scholar thing is a way for Chinese visitors to get support for their government to spread Chinese culture, while the have their kids immersed in English in the best schools around (believe me, they know how to pick), and enjoy the American lifestyle for a year or more if they can work out some kind of eventual green card deal...

    As Alice wrote too, the high schools have gotten into the act. A Catholic school we know had people going to China to recruit. They want that full tuition money, but they try to get American families to put the kids up for cheap.

    I hope the readers don't think I'm anti-Chinese, though. It's quite the opposite on a personal level. I just happen to know a lot from that, and I'll tell it like it is.

    Replies: @Steve Sailer, @Lugash

    , @PiltdownMan
    @Steve Sailer


    He sounds like a character in “The Three Body Problem.”
     
    I knew the title, and just looked up the plot of the book. He sure does. Sounds like a really good read.

    Mr. Chung (I don't think I'm doxxing him after so long, four decades, by using just his last name) was very, very curious about everything, but his English was formal and stilted, and his demeanor serious.

    I answered his questions the best I could; but despite his hard experience, background and age (he had missed out on his twenties, the best years for a physicist), he picked up new ideas and information exceptionally quickly.

    The most difficult moment was when he asked me to explain the Dow Jones Industrial Average to him, which he kept hearing about on the nightly TV news. I had to start from the very foundations. Being from the Communist China of those days, and a physics student on top of that, he had no conceptual framework whatsoever to relate my the ideas in my explanation to.
  130. @Kratoklastes
    @Ron Unz

    The appropriate calculation ought to go something like this:

    ① adjust 'covid deaths' by Pr(false positive) - i.e., reduce them by ~3/4ths[1];
    ② generate some Monte Carlo data under a range of assumptions for a SEIR model, always assuming that Patient Zero arrived in mid-late December 2019;
    ③ see where the 'probability-adjusted covid deaths' line is, in relation to the error bounds obtained from ②.

    (Protip: it's below the lower bound. I've done this exercise, as you might imagine).


    [1] What have the test producers said? That a positive test indicates that the person has something - not definitively the dreaded novel coronavirus 2019.

    They have slammed the door on that aspect of the issue: try and find anything about false POSITIVES on Google and you will be inundated with hundreds of links to stories about why you should still panic because you tested NEGATIVE.

    Of course, the Chicken Littles have been "buk-buk-bukAAAAK"-ing about false negatives, because they are trying - desperately - to keep the mouth-breathers in a state of frisson.

    Replies: @Steve Sailer

    But if there are a huge number of False Positives, then we are a really long way away from Herd Immunity, right? Also, the Case Fatality Rate must be higher than estimated, right?

  131. Anonymous[266] • Disclaimer says:

    In the real world, capitalism runs on bullshit. That is probably why, one reason why, academics hate it. Academics love theory leading to practice. But in making money, the winner is usually someone who gets it backward.

    That’s one reason Marxism is vastly more attractive to academics than to most anyone else. It doesn’t WORK, as most people would define working, but that is immaterial.

  132. @Ron Unz
    Well, I'll take the liberty of republishing part of a comment I left on one of the earliest iSteve/Coronavirus posts almost exactly two weeks ago:

    Well, I’ve often pointed out the negative consequences of having a country run by its Ministry of Propaganda.

    For decades, America government and society has become more and more crazy and incompetent, with that reality concealed by our ever more sweeping propaganda. But since the Coronavirus doesn’t pay attention to the MSM, we’ll soon find out the consequences of that strategy.
     
    The biggest problem with the Coronavirus is that you can't deplatform it from Twitter when it does things you don't like...

    Replies: @wren, @trelane, @JimDandy, @Dieter Kief, @John Burns, Gettysburg Partisan, @UK, @Forbes, @dfordoom

    A gypsy with a broken flag and a flashing ring
    Said, “Son, this ain’t a dream no more, it’s the real thing”

    (Bob Dylan – Slow Train Coming / Senor – Tales of Yankee Power.)

  133. Anon[762] • Disclaimer says:

    Im still saying to wait till April 20th. Thats 8 extra days than the April 12th “lets start back up” date that gets bandied about. Perhaps NYC, New Orleans, and a few other port cities may have to stay down a little longer. We probably really do need to get up by May 1 to avoid pretty tough economic turmoil. Im personally OK, but many arent.

    All of you sniping at Trump: This is a uniquely sticky situation. He knows the MSM is trying to hurt the economy and his reelection chances in an election year. Hell, they dont even want that malaria medication to be tried, even if it works. Trumps been put in a rough chessboard spot. Look at what Trumps been through: Russian collusion hoax, Avenatti/porn star brouha, the Supreme Court Justice (Kavennaugh-how ever ya spell it) rape hoax, the quid-pro-quo Ukranian impeachment hoax, predictions from the likes of Mark Cuban and Paul Krugman that the economy would never recover if Trump was elected, the John Brennan-stating-Trump–belongs-to-Hyman Roth Putin………..and he is still standing and fighting for us. Any other world counties medias blaming their own presidents for this stuff? No.

  134. @Steve Sailer
    @PiltdownMan

    He sounds like a character in "The Three Body Problem." America in 1980 must have been paradise for him after all he'd been thru in post-Cultural Revolution China.

    Replies: @Achmed E. Newman, @PiltdownMan

    Indeed. He had to be somebody really special or, more likely, KNEW somebody really special, to get out of that madness and get to come here back when our universities were the best in the world (on the whole, people). A dozen or so Chinese graduate students came to our town in the mid-1980s, and it was an unheard-of-before big deal. They were like men from Mars.

    Alice is pretty much right in her comment, though I’d say, the Chinese influx into graduate schools started just a tad earlier, sometime in the early 1990s. Yes, you never know who was spying, likely more for industry than the Chinese government. Now, besides their filling up every math/science/engineering department, lots of Chinese people are “visiting scholars” in every kind of major, including Education. It’s a crock to begin with, and now these people are supposed to illuminate the Schools of Education or take home some of that valuable knowledge from the Professional Educators? Balderdash!

    No, the visiting scholar thing is a way for Chinese visitors to get support for their government to spread Chinese culture, while the have their kids immersed in English in the best schools around (believe me, they know how to pick), and enjoy the American lifestyle for a year or more if they can work out some kind of eventual green card deal…

    As Alice wrote too, the high schools have gotten into the act. A Catholic school we know had people going to China to recruit. They want that full tuition money, but they try to get American families to put the kids up for cheap.

    I hope the readers don’t think I’m anti-Chinese, though. It’s quite the opposite on a personal level. I just happen to know a lot from that, and I’ll tell it like it is.

    • Replies: @Steve Sailer
    @Achmed E. Newman

    Sounds a little like the career of Sergei Korolev (1906-1966), the top Soviet rocket scientist who got the first man into space. He was sent off to the Gulag from 1938-1944, then called back.

    A hero.

    https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Sergei_Korolev

    Replies: @J.Ross

    , @Lugash
    @Achmed E. Newman

    Here's a story of Chinese nationals(?) taking private jets home. Including a high school student in Wisconsin whose Dad was offering her 20K to stay in America:

    https://nypost.com/2020/03/25/chinese-students-pay-20k-for-private-jet-flights-out-of-us-as-coronavirus-spreads/

    Replies: @Achmed E. Newman

  135. @Achmed E. Newman
    @Steve Sailer

    Indeed. He had to be somebody really special or, more likely, KNEW somebody really special, to get out of that madness and get to come here back when our universities were the best in the world (on the whole, people). A dozen or so Chinese graduate students came to our town in the mid-1980s, and it was an unheard-of-before big deal. They were like men from Mars.

    Alice is pretty much right in her comment, though I'd say, the Chinese influx into graduate schools started just a tad earlier, sometime in the early 1990s. Yes, you never know who was spying, likely more for industry than the Chinese government. Now, besides their filling up every math/science/engineering department, lots of Chinese people are "visiting scholars" in every kind of major, including Education. It's a crock to begin with, and now these people are supposed to illuminate the Schools of Education or take home some of that valuable knowledge from the Professional Educators? Balderdash!

    No, the visiting scholar thing is a way for Chinese visitors to get support for their government to spread Chinese culture, while the have their kids immersed in English in the best schools around (believe me, they know how to pick), and enjoy the American lifestyle for a year or more if they can work out some kind of eventual green card deal...

    As Alice wrote too, the high schools have gotten into the act. A Catholic school we know had people going to China to recruit. They want that full tuition money, but they try to get American families to put the kids up for cheap.

    I hope the readers don't think I'm anti-Chinese, though. It's quite the opposite on a personal level. I just happen to know a lot from that, and I'll tell it like it is.

    Replies: @Steve Sailer, @Lugash

    Sounds a little like the career of Sergei Korolev (1906-1966), the top Soviet rocket scientist who got the first man into space. He was sent off to the Gulag from 1938-1944, then called back.

    A hero.

    https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Sergei_Korolev

    • Replies: @J.Ross
    @Steve Sailer

    Was this comment pre-coffee?

  136. @Harry Baldwin
    @Rob (London)

    Yes, of course! The key to solving any problem is to create a government agency full of bureaucrats charged with solving that problem. When has that ever failed us?

    Replies: @Achmed E. Newman, @Rob (LM)

    Rob is right. This whole thing could have been handled with ease if we’d only had a Flu Czar in place. Remember the time of the American Czars? They were there for those odd times when the Feral Gov’t bureaucracy just wasn’t getting the job done with efficiency and alacrity. Peak Stupidity wondered two years ago Where have all the Czars gone? … long time passing…

  137. @Steve Sailer
    @PiltdownMan

    He sounds like a character in "The Three Body Problem." America in 1980 must have been paradise for him after all he'd been thru in post-Cultural Revolution China.

    Replies: @Achmed E. Newman, @PiltdownMan

    He sounds like a character in “The Three Body Problem.”

    I knew the title, and just looked up the plot of the book. He sure does. Sounds like a really good read.

    Mr. Chung (I don’t think I’m doxxing him after so long, four decades, by using just his last name) was very, very curious about everything, but his English was formal and stilted, and his demeanor serious.

    I answered his questions the best I could; but despite his hard experience, background and age (he had missed out on his twenties, the best years for a physicist), he picked up new ideas and information exceptionally quickly.

    The most difficult moment was when he asked me to explain the Dow Jones Industrial Average to him, which he kept hearing about on the nightly TV news. I had to start from the very foundations. Being from the Communist China of those days, and a physics student on top of that, he had no conceptual framework whatsoever to relate my the ideas in my explanation to.

  138. @onetwothree
    @Achmed E. Newman

    The comments on zerohedge are maybe the worst on the internet. Just pure copy-paste rubbish.

    Replies: @Achmed E. Newman, @Dano, @Twodees Partain

    Not in 2012, that wasn’t the case. Of course, I was younger then so had different tastes probably. Even now there are some of the old-timers still commenting on ZH that are very entertaining.

  139. Maybe a bit OT, but one thing that’s pissed me off is how the Chinese government did so little to prevent this virus from popping up.

    It’s obvious enough that the eating practices of segments of Chinese society brought on this virus, and many others.

    How could the Chinese government neglect to put an end to those practices? We’re talking about one of the most oppressively authoritarian governments in the world. They couldn’t put that authoritarianism to good use where it is truly needed, by aggressive efforts to clamp down on these practices? They go out of their way to change just about everything else in Chinese society by harsh punishment, but they leave bat soup untouched?

    What an egregious squandering of one of the few positive sides of authoritarianism.

    • Replies: @Anon
    @candid_observer


    They go out of their way to change just about everything else in Chinese society by harsh punishment, but they leave bat soup untouched?
     
    Bat soup is not a traditional Chinese dish. It is in Palau, which is a former US colony and currently a kind of US protectorate. Of course most people, including most Americans, have never heard of Palau. But American diplomats and those in the US intel community engaged in information operations are probably going to be familiar with Palau and its culinary traditions. The bat soup video that originally went viral at the beginning of the outbreak was actually from Palau.

    https://twitter.com/CarlZha/status/1243351601823154177

    https://twitter.com/Ripleys/status/697974409500307457

    Replies: @Joe Stalin

    , @HA
    @candid_observer

    "How could the Chinese government neglect to put an end to those practices? We’re talking about one of the most oppressively authoritarian governments in the world. They couldn’t put that authoritarianism to good use where it is truly needed, by aggressive efforts to clamp down on these practices?"

    There's a "traditional Chinese medicine" loophole in the exotic meat trade. So even though bat soup is technically off the menu, but if it increases the efficacy of bear gall or tiger penis, then it's fine.

    India and China generate millions locally with so-called traditional medicine, and have bribed the WHO into granting it an imprimatur, over the objection of actual Hippocratic doctors. This allows them to expand the market for their quackery internationally, meaning that someday you, too, might have the privilege of shelling out $20 to guzzle down a bottle of ayurvedic cow urine.

    So far, the West's objections to Chinese attempts to bribe and bend the WHO have amounted to little. And so, here we are.

    Replies: @MEH 0910

  140. @Kratoklastes
    @anonguy


    LIke the Daily Mail articles popping up now about “fit and healthy” people with no comorbidities dyijng in their 30s/40s but you look at the pics and the individual is clearly quite overweight.
     
    It's painful to watch TPTWTCTB (The Powers That Want To Continue To Be), parading any victim that can be passed off as 'just like you the viewer'.

    It's reminiscent of the "heterosexuals can get AIDS" shit from the 80s.

    I've previously confessed that I never saw the Oprah episode in which she claimed that "20% of heterosexual Americans would die of AIDS in the next three years"... but as a 20-something I was still (vaguely) aware of flimsy amateur-theatrics trying to convince non-pillowbiters that they would get AIDS.

    The "Look at this normal looking 30-something guy who died of covid19" bullshit will convince mostly women (a lot of whom are not up to the rigours of 8th grade mathematics, and could not process the difference between anecdotes and data if you threatened to kill their children).

    That's the target market: people who don't understand statistics, probability and so forth.

    If a supermodel-looking 20-something chicksie ever dies of covid19, the orgasms in the DailyMail 'SheMail' magazine editorial staff would be heard halfway round the world.

    If a proper famous (TOWIE, MAFS, Geordie Shore or Kardashian) ever got it, the editorial staff would cum themselves to death immediately.

    Replies: @anonguy, @AnotherDad

    Your comment is inane and I’m certain the only reason Steve allows such word and idea salad is so that you will feel important and contribute during fund drive.

    But anyhow, if TPTB, if such a thing exists, were trying to scare people, dontcha think they’d be saying that we are all going to die because we don’t have enough masks?

    That is super low hanging fruit. But no, masks don’t work spewage.

    The facts are bad enough, you don’t even need to make things up.

    Yesterday, NYC had record EMS medical calls, 6406, surpassed 9/11 even.

    When do you think it will be under that number again?

    • Replies: @peterike
    @anonguy


    Yesterday, NYC had record EMS medical calls, 6406, surpassed 9/11 even.
     
    Do you know how many insanely paranoid hypochondriacs live in New York City?

    Replies: @anonguy

    , @Kratoklastes
    @anonguy


    dontcha think they'd be saying that we are all going to die because we don't have enough masks
     
    They already tried that - weeks ago.

    It didn't resonate, because the average schlub thinks that wearing masks in public is stupid and is only done by Asian female germophobes. That's the historical 'hook' in the public mind.

    You're obviously only newly-interested. Are you 12?

    The fact that you weren't paying attention until the TV told you to panic about something that triggered you, doesn't mean that no messaging existed before you got hysterical.

    Just a few links from my covid19\other folder...

    The Atlantic, Jan 30: We Don’t Have Enough Masks: Pandemics will require deciding who needs respirators and surgical masks, and who doesn’t.

    Nikkei Asian Review, Feb 17: Mask shortages threaten US hospitals after warnings ignored

    Bloomberg, March 9: The Global Mask Shortage May Get Much Worse

    FDA, March 11: FAQs on Shortages of Surgical Masks and Gowns

    CDC, March 18: Strategies for Optimizing the Supply of Facemasks

    Newsflow in the last day or so shows that they've had another crack at getting traction for mask-hysteria: WaPo, NYT, NPR.

    lol @ the NYT headline: "How the World’s Richest Country Ran Out of a 75-Cent Face Mask".


    I mean for fuck's sake... if you had been following this thing for more than a few days, you could have picked a thousand better examples.

    Replies: @anonguy

  141. @anonguy
    Trump has served his historical purpose, which was to be the epic troll for the national establishment, blue and red.

    Plus, he has inadvertently united the country, at least the part with shred of humanity, behind the notion of not dying for wall street.

    General Strike is rumbling in background, let's see where that goes as we continue to hear crickets from our billionaire class.

    Trump is a tired man now and his mental acuity has slipped. Various theories surrounding his unscheduled WRAMC visit last November seem within realm of credibility.

    Like some small strokes that have left him functional, just a little stubborn and set in his ways. Used to be considered a common consequence of aging.

    He's not of the mental powers he had on campaign trail in 2016, that is obvious to any careful observer IMO.

    His apparent need for all the Dear Leader adulation by subordinates in press conferences is another sign of decline.

    Replies: @Kronos, @Pericles, @TrudeauSux, @William Badwhite, @Escher

    As we have seen, read and heard, the whole Deep State with media, academia, #resistance and all, have had large and small strokes since 2016. They are burned out, they are a spent force, they are zombies staggering about mouthing woke word salad. Trump has literally blasted new pathways through their brains.

  142. @ScarletNumber
    @Dano

    To describe Scott Alexander as autistic is to put it mildly. He is very naive outside his area of expertise.

    He is also VERY long-winded. Having said that, his greatest hits are very good.

    Replies: @nebulafox

    Social awkwardness does not make one autistic. I’ve briefly met Scott. He didn’t strike me as autistic. He’s just really nebbishy: nice guy, intelligent guy, but nebbishy. We’ve placed the “autism” label on anything vaguely eccentric.

    This goes both ways: if you are high functioning enough, you can learn social skills analytically-like you would a foreign language. You’d be surprised how little it takes to deceive people: as a kid, I’d just copy verbatim what I found in books or on TV thinking that everybody was relying off of similar “scripts”, and even that had non-complete failure results. You’ll never be a native speaker, and you’ll likely run into limitations occasionally because of overstimulation or tics or other features related to the disorder, but you often notice stuff on how people tick that ordinary people don’t bother to recognize because they take it for granted, and this can pay dividends.

  143. @Mr McKenna
    @Peter Akuleyev


    Trump was still referring to the Corona Virus as a hoax.
     
    Citation please? I believe that Trump was referring to the Dems' treatment of the issue.

    Replies: @Peter Akuleyev

    That is the weakest defense of Trump imaginable. No one is claiming that Trump was saying the virus does not exist, he was saying that the Democrats talking about a coming pandemic were perpetrating a hoax. Do you think he was right? Of course, there are still millions of Americans who think the response to a virus is a hoax. Many of them frequent these forums. Trump to this day continues to waffle and talks about the flu being just as lethal and car crashes and whatever.

    To be fair, in Europe the situation is often reversed. Salvini in Italy was the strongest voice for taking strong measures back in early February when the Left was still diddling around, and plenty of Marxists in France are still convinced the whole thing is a plot to keep demonstrators off the streets and hurt the workers. Orban has shut his entire country down. Putin, nota bene, wears full protection when he visits hospitals and practices social distancing, he seems to take the virus very seriously.

    • Agree: Thomas
    • Replies: @Biggest Shoe
    @Peter Akuleyev

    I notice that you didn’t give Mr. McKenna the citation for which he asked. I’d like to see it too. Please.

    We should all try to understand how well Trump is handling this event in an objective manner. Providing links to the actual statements of our president would have be very useful and could have added weight to your argument.

    , @Mr McKenna
    @Peter Akuleyev

    1. I wasn't trying to defend Trump. I was asking a question about what he said. For a fee, though, I can and will defend Trump even to your satisfaction. Incidentally, this doesn't mean I'm a fan of Trump--I'm not. It means I can defend him if sufficiently motivated. How about a substantial donation to our host?

    2. My memory is that the Dems at the time were still obsessed with "Impeachment!" and that many of them took potshots at Trump "RACIST!" for suggesting we control our borders, specifically limiting entrants who had visited infected areas of China. Our most prominent 'prestige media' outlets went on the warpath against the president over that.

    3. Whether or not the situation in Europe is actually 'reversed' I believe that the importance of borders has been driven home persuasively--but only to those who are capable of being persuaded. Our masses and their MSM gods will continue to parrot "viruses don't respect borders' nonsense even though (to my knowledge) no virus has yet passed through a concrete wall.

    PS: Viktor Orbán, now there's a guy I like. The MSM in the USA are up in arms about him, and offhand I can think of no higher commendation.

    , @e
    @Peter Akuleyev

    Try again--Trump said the Dems who were claiming Trump was doing "nothing" about a coming pandemic were perpetrating a hoax for he had, against their pc screams, banned travel from China to the U.S.

  144. @newrouter
    @newrouter

    grammar update: >The rest "are" just details.< The rest is plural no?

    Replies: @black sea, @Kim

    Agreements between verbs and their subjects are a matter of perspective when the subject can be regarded either as a single unit or as a number of members.

    Thus “The team is…” and “The team are…” are both acceptable, and similarly for “The rest…”. “The rest is history.” Vs “The rest are of no value.”

  145. @Redneck farmer
    @The Germ Theory of Disease

    Now, now, don't remind people of what would in all likelihood would have happened. Trump hasn't deported every illegal, nuked Israel, and executed all the Africans in America; all the things certain blackpillers apparently thought would happen.

    Replies: @The Germ Theory of Disease

    “Trump hasn’t deported every illegal, nuked Israel, and executed all the Africans…”

    If Trump had done nothing more than kept his pledge to nuke Israel, the illegals and the Africans and every other durn problem would have just solved themselves.

  146. @Polynikes
    The President’s job really is just coordination (mostly of the states and their representatives under a federalism framework) and leadership (mostly in foreign relations). Trump is out here holding hour long press conferences everyday with multiple actors and experts—meanwhile Joe Biden struggles to get through a 5 min teleconference. He’s largely left the governors of each state to handle each state differently, although many have taken the lead from the feds. The amount of force to get people to social distance in crowded NYC and sparsely populated Wyoming are quite different, after all.

    I’m not a fan of the forced quarantines or the giant bailout, but am I really to believe anything would’ve been better if Obama or W were leading this shitshow of panic that has swept the nation?

    Replies: @Rob (London), @grim prognosis, @Pericles

    am I really to believe anything would’ve been better if Obama or W were leading this shitshow of panic that has swept the nation?

    If you had only listened, you could have had Hillary.

  147. @Ron Unz
    @education realist


    Like many here, I completely disagree with Steve on this and have found it interesting how the skeptic community has broken up over this. Steve. JayMan, Claire Lehmann seem to think it’s fine to bankrupt the economy in the name of “Just One Less Death”, whereas Philippe, Ben SixSmith and others were worried at first but now worry we’ve overreacted.... And I’ve literally blocked Jay, he’s so obnoxious.
     
    Well, I'm vaguely familiar with Claire Lehmann, who's the editor of Quillette. But I don't spend my time on Twitter, so I don't have a clue who "Philippe" is. And what in the world is a "Ben SixSmith"?

    Offhand, it sounds like the divide may be between individuals who can do math and individuals who can't. For example, here's a graph someone just provided of the current exponential death-curve for New York:

    https://i.ibb.co/b610g3M/Graph0.png

    https://www.unz.com/runz/correctly-estimating-coronavirus-infections/#comment-3797732

    Replies: @education realist, @Kratoklastes, @Brás Cubas, @John Burns, Gettysburg Partisan, @Intelligent Dasein, @ThreeCranes, @keypusher

    And what in the world is a “Ben SixSmith”?

    Ben Sixsmith writes for Spectator USA. Here’s a piece he wrote about you:

    The Curious Case of Ron Unz
    https://spectator.us/ron-unz/

    As for your seeming astonishment over his last name, here is some information about its origins:

    https://www.surnamedb.com/Surname/Sixsmith

    Just thought you’d like to know. Besides, my reaction-button functionality has been blocked for not commenting often enough, so…

    • Replies: @JimDandy
    @Brás Cubas

    That Spectator article was a pathetic, misleading propaganda hit-piece. Truly repulsive piece of yellow trash.

  148. @PiltdownMan
    @Dave Pinsen

    Trump is likely in a stronger position than those who are criticizing his positive talk during this crisis are assuming. Although the economy will have tanked by November, he will be able to blame it on the virus, and avoid any accusation of personal failure in stewardship of the economy.

    Also, November is far away enough, that it is possible the markets will rebound in time for the fall election campaign—if the worst phase of this crisis proves to an affair lasting only a few months. He can also, and will, take direct credit for the grand in cash every voter would have received by then. And if a follow up stimulus package happens, as many are suggesting, he'll get a lift from that, too.

    Replies: @Ron Mexico, @BB753

    And his opponent is a living, breathing (for now), gaffing human being who isn’t generating a whole lot of enthusiasm and support from his own team.

  149. Boris has coronachan.

    https://www.bbc.co.uk/news/uk-52060791

    Prime Minister Boris Johnson has tested positive for coronavirus, Downing Street has said.

    Mr Johnson has mild symptoms and will self-isolate in Downing Street.

    “He was tested for coronavirus on the personal advice of England’s chief medical officer, Professor Chris Whitty,” a statement said.

    He will still be in charge of the government’s handling of the crisis, the statement added.

    • Replies: @YetAnotherAnon
    @YetAnotherAnon

    Now the UK Health Minister has coronachan. They're dropping like flies!

  150. @Ron Unz
    NYC => Northern Italy

    https://youtu.be/MKzLW5eWqo4

    Replies: @AnotherGuessModel, @Hibernian, @peterike

    I’ll be the bearer of some good news, however relative. Whatever our disagreements, if that’s the American version of an overstretched and unprepared hospital – and I sincerely don’t mean to minimize or cast doubt on the nurse’s testimony – be skeptical when you come across unfavorable media coverage of your healthcare system’s ability to respond to the pandemic compared to developed European nations.

  151. @JimDandy
    @Ron Unz

    An extreme segregation of the elderly and other high-risk people seems like the key to me--not just for their own sakes, but to keep the system from getting overwhelmed.

    Replies: @BB753, @anon

    You can’t do that. Boomers still believe they’re young. They won’t comply if you call them “elderly”.

    • Replies: @JimDandy
    @BB753

    True, they won't go into their retreats willingly, so this process will require some brawn and will save the economy as millions of new jobs open up under the category of Boomer Remover.

    , @tbmcc
    @BB753

    Let me tell you something about "Boomers" I wasn't around when they passed the 14th amendment, nor the 19th. I was too young to vote when they passed the "civil rights" act and the '65 immigration act. I didn't start the f-n fire. So just quit.

  152. @Peter Akuleyev
    @Mr McKenna

    That is the weakest defense of Trump imaginable. No one is claiming that Trump was saying the virus does not exist, he was saying that the Democrats talking about a coming pandemic were perpetrating a hoax. Do you think he was right? Of course, there are still millions of Americans who think the response to a virus is a hoax. Many of them frequent these forums. Trump to this day continues to waffle and talks about the flu being just as lethal and car crashes and whatever.

    To be fair, in Europe the situation is often reversed. Salvini in Italy was the strongest voice for taking strong measures back in early February when the Left was still diddling around, and plenty of Marxists in France are still convinced the whole thing is a plot to keep demonstrators off the streets and hurt the workers. Orban has shut his entire country down. Putin, nota bene, wears full protection when he visits hospitals and practices social distancing, he seems to take the virus very seriously.

    Replies: @Biggest Shoe, @Mr McKenna, @e

    I notice that you didn’t give Mr. McKenna the citation for which he asked. I’d like to see it too. Please.

    We should all try to understand how well Trump is handling this event in an objective manner. Providing links to the actual statements of our president would have be very useful and could have added weight to your argument.

    • Agree: HammerJack
  153. Steve is not being fair to President Trump. Trump has done primetime addresses to tell the nation how dangerous this is, he has cut off international travel, closed borders, etc.

    He is simply trying to give is a light at the end of this very dark tunnel. It is called leadership.

    • Agree: Travis, Ron Mexico
  154. @Peter Akuleyev
    @Intelligent Dasein

    Clinton would have at least left competent professional administrators in place, there would have been a pandemia response plan and the CDC and FDA would not be run by bootlickers trying to curry favor with the Leader. Trump decided to destroy the Federal government precisely at the moment we actually needed it for something.

    Replies: @Anonymous, @Pericles, @Jenner Ickham Errican, @res

    Clinton would have at least left competent professional administrators in place, there would have been a pandemia response plan and the CDC and FDA would not be run by bootlickers trying to curry favor with the Leader.

    Lol, we know you hate hate hate Trump with a parodic zeal but, please, you need a sense of proportion and realism in what you write. Also, adding an infatuation with Hillary to your hatred of Trump is rather disappointing.

    • Replies: @William Badwhite
    @Pericles


    Also, adding an infatuation with Hillary to your hatred of Trump is rather disappointing.
     
    Yes. The idea that Hillary Clinton is both intelligent and competent is on par with believing in Santa Claus. (Cue Paleo Liberal to tell us how she finished first in her class in law school). Virtually everything she's touched has failed. She's like King Midas in reverse. She failed the DC bar exam. The woman couldn't get health care reform through a Democratic House. Her arrogant buffoonery then cost the Dems the House, something previously thought impossible. Her stint as a Senator included nothing of importance. Her time as Sec'y of State was a debacle. She couldn't beat Bernie Sanders legitimately so had to use her typically ham-fisted methods to wrest the nomination, then insulted half the country and while ignoring the advice of her husband, managed to lose to Donald Trump. And of course the Russia hoax came out of her campaign.

    Virtually everything she's had in life has been handed to her, and she in turn has dropped it. It is hard to think of a politician more useless and incompetent while also being such a vile human being. And yet there are STILL people like jabbering foreigner Peter A that labor under the delusion she'd have been a great President.

    Replies: @ben tillman, @Nicholas Stix, @Achmed E. Newman, @Reg Cæsar

    , @Peter Akuleyev
    @Pericles

    Defend Trump on his merits, making up ad hominem insinuations is not an argument.

    Replies: @Pericles

  155. @Mr McKenna
    @Dave Pinsen

    No issue with your points, but keep in mind that GWB's approval rating was relatively mediocre until the day after 9/11. But what had we really learned that day about GWB, aside from the fact that he and the government had failed to keep this country safe? His approval rating shot up to ~90%.

    https://www.jstor.org/stable/3792592?seq=1

    Replies: @UK, @Joseph Doaks, @dfordoom

    Events like that bring perspective to our hysterical culture. Prior to 9/11, Bush was literally Hitler and all that mad jazz. Immediately after 9/11, Americans who thought so we’re given something to calibrate their emotions off, and so calmed down. Of course that effect didn’t last long and he soon went back to being whatever his opponents’ emotional state demanded.

    He turned out to be a poor President but the constant unmoored craziness of people’s descriptions of him shows a serious lack of imagination on their part, and a whole heap of then fighting their own demons.

  156. @black sea
    @anonguy

    I noticed this as well. In yesterday's Daily Mail, they wrote about a "fit and healthy" 47 year old who died alone, but when you see his photographs he looks like a grossly obese 55 year old. Of course, his story was quite sad -- he died alone due to self-imposed quarantine -- but that doesn't make him "fit and healthy."

    https://www.dailymail.co.uk/news/article-8154747/Fit-healthy-banker-dies-coronavirus-isolation.html

    Replies: @anonguy, @BB753, @Hibernian, @Jonathan Mason

    “Fat and unhealthy” is the new “fit and healthy”.

  157. @Ron Unz
    Well, I'll take the liberty of republishing part of a comment I left on one of the earliest iSteve/Coronavirus posts almost exactly two weeks ago:

    Well, I’ve often pointed out the negative consequences of having a country run by its Ministry of Propaganda.

    For decades, America government and society has become more and more crazy and incompetent, with that reality concealed by our ever more sweeping propaganda. But since the Coronavirus doesn’t pay attention to the MSM, we’ll soon find out the consequences of that strategy.
     
    The biggest problem with the Coronavirus is that you can't deplatform it from Twitter when it does things you don't like...

    Replies: @wren, @trelane, @JimDandy, @Dieter Kief, @John Burns, Gettysburg Partisan, @UK, @Forbes, @dfordoom

    Actually, America has become quite competent at forcing Italians overseas to watch porn and avoid religious services.

    • Replies: @The Wild Geese Howard
    @John Burns, Gettysburg Partisan

    Actually, PornHub is now offering free premium to anyone who pledges to socially distance themselves:

    "Help Flatten The Curve" – Pornhub Offers Free Premium Service To Everyone

    https://www.zerohedge.com/markets/help-flatten-curve-pornhub-offers-free-premium-service-everyone

    And incels everywhere rejoiced!

  158. Cross-posting………..Hey, for all of you “trust the experts” people:

    Cuomo admits the quarantine was misguided.

    https://nypost.com/2020/03/26/cuomo-admits-that-quarantine-may-have-backfired-in-some-cases/

  159. @sb057
    I've long said that the key to understanding Trump is to understand his two greatest mentors: Norman Vincent Peale and Roy Cohn. He's become a relatively obscure figure today, but he was effectively the mastermind behind the Second Red Scare (McCarthy was something of his puppet). He was also known more generally as your ultimate sleazebag New York lawyer and has the paper trail to back it up. He also served as Trump's lawyer in the future President's early career, and would allegedly call him for advice on a near-constant basis. Also interesting is his death from AIDS and apparent repressed homosexuality.

    Replies: @Hibernian, @James J. O'Meara

    Norman Vincent Peale and Roy Cohn.

    A phony Christian reverend and a stereotypical Jewish dude.

    • Replies: @BB753
    @Hibernian

    Beale created a crazy mixture of Calvinism (more precisely, Arminianism) and New Age gnostic voluntarism.
    Does anybody know if Trump is a freemason? Because Norman Vincent Beale sure sounds like one.

    Replies: @James J. O'Meara, @anon

    , @njguy73
    @Hibernian

    Hey, don't be saying that Roy Cohn represents us Jewish guys.

    Most of us like chicks.

    Replies: @James J. O'Meara

  160. Most people like someone being positive.

  161. Real estate is about politics. You can do it without if you plan generationally. I know a family that has done that and carried wealth through four or five generations (I’m assuming the kids can’t blow through the multi million dollar nut before they die). But most real estate guys are hooked into politics, local, state, federal. They arrange for mayors to go soft on illegals to fill up the lowest end rentals that American working men used to. They ask the state and NGO types to get those same illegals more services, hide people from ice and get donations for everything from utilities to school supplies. On a bigger scale they get a corridor through a national Forest for a bike path so they can put in vacation homes at one end, keep locals from being able to use the beaches and put up tollbooths. They’re fixers. They still work in smoke filled rooms.

  162. @Ron Unz
    @education realist


    Like many here, I completely disagree with Steve on this and have found it interesting how the skeptic community has broken up over this. Steve. JayMan, Claire Lehmann seem to think it’s fine to bankrupt the economy in the name of “Just One Less Death”, whereas Philippe, Ben SixSmith and others were worried at first but now worry we’ve overreacted.... And I’ve literally blocked Jay, he’s so obnoxious.
     
    Well, I'm vaguely familiar with Claire Lehmann, who's the editor of Quillette. But I don't spend my time on Twitter, so I don't have a clue who "Philippe" is. And what in the world is a "Ben SixSmith"?

    Offhand, it sounds like the divide may be between individuals who can do math and individuals who can't. For example, here's a graph someone just provided of the current exponential death-curve for New York:

    https://i.ibb.co/b610g3M/Graph0.png

    https://www.unz.com/runz/correctly-estimating-coronavirus-infections/#comment-3797732

    Replies: @education realist, @Kratoklastes, @Brás Cubas, @John Burns, Gettysburg Partisan, @Intelligent Dasein, @ThreeCranes, @keypusher

    Andrew Cuomo sounds pretty skeptical now, Ron.

  163. @The Germ Theory of Disease
    @Dave Pinsen

    In December and January, when a dangerous highly contagious pandemic was brewing in China, a country with tremendous international reach and penetration to every nook in the globe, during that time which presented a critical early action window, Democrats and their mouthpieces in the media and academia decided unanimously, in one loud, sonorous, screeching voice, that the most vital priority of the nation was to investigate and impeach the president for possibly saying something mean to some guy in Ukraine.

    They were on record about this, loud and clear: the well-known potential epidemic (I was making jokes about bat soup over Christmas dinner) was not mentioned by Democrats and their megaphone buddies at all --- no no no, no sir, the first and only order of business was Orange Man said something which bafflingly had something to do with Ukraine arms expenditures which nobody understands, and Creepy Joe's drug-addled son. Defending the honor of Hunter Biden and his stripper baby-mama was top priority for Democrats, even if it regrettably meant taking a president's scalp.

    Do not ever let them forget this.

    When Trump banned travel entry from China at end of Jan, the left and Dems howled racism, and NYT and WaPo moaned that "studies" and "experts" had shown that restricting international travel does not diminish a highly contagious international disease. That was the leftist line: Orange Man Racist, no further nuance.

    Do not ever let the, forget this.

    If Trump had rolled out social distancing, a nationwide work stoppage and the stock market tanked, all back on 2/1/20, the left would have been screaming Nazi! Racist! Authoritarian madness! He's gonna put us all in caaaaamps!! Trump destroyed the Dow, which we suddenly want to be high, he ruined the economy with his draconian Nazi policies without evidence. And they'd all be handcuffing themselves to the nearest Chunese person in protest.

    Do not ever let them forget this.

    Replies: @Redneck farmer, @Rob (LM), @Anon7

    If there had been no impeachment and nothing of interest happening domestically between December and February, you think Trump would have sensed the danger and leapt into action to protect the American public from Covid19? That seems pretty unlikely to me. He was still calling it a ‘Democrat hoax’ even as it was killing Americans in Washington.

  164. @Ron Unz
    NYC => Northern Italy

    https://youtu.be/MKzLW5eWqo4

    Replies: @AnotherGuessModel, @Hibernian, @peterike

    Do you think having a crybaby like this in management might be part of the problem? In a local organization, and that includes health care, it’s not uncommon for supplies and equipment that are needed to sit idly in storage,because nobody takes the initiative to move them to where they are needed. Every sector of local government in large cities is used as a dumping ground for political machine patronage hacks. This includes health care, and Cook County (Chicago) Hospital, now called Stroger Hospital, has been a prime example over the years.

  165. @Hibernian
    @sb057


    Norman Vincent Peale and Roy Cohn.
     
    A phony Christian reverend and a stereotypical Jewish dude.

    Replies: @BB753, @njguy73

    Beale created a crazy mixture of Calvinism (more precisely, Arminianism) and New Age gnostic voluntarism.
    Does anybody know if Trump is a freemason? Because Norman Vincent Beale sure sounds like one.

    • Replies: @James J. O'Meara
    @BB753

    Wow, I bet you went to graduate school.

    And it's Peale, by the way (Beale was the Mad Prophet of the Airwaves in Network). But I'm sure the rest of your comment is on the nose.

    , @anon
    @BB753

    Beale created a crazy mixture of Calvinism (more precisely, Arminianism)

    Laughter s healthy, especially in stressful times, thanks for a good one!

    Replies: @BB753

  166. @Harry Baldwin
    @Rob (London)

    Yes, of course! The key to solving any problem is to create a government agency full of bureaucrats charged with solving that problem. When has that ever failed us?

    Replies: @Achmed E. Newman, @Rob (LM)

    No one asked him to create one, just maybe leave in place the one that was already there. Would it have helped? We’ll never know now will we.

    • Replies: @Harry Baldwin
    @Rob (LM)

    We’ll never know now will we.

    True, we'll never know, but if experience is any guide they'd have been useless. Probably would have objected to Trump closing traffic with China. When these bureaucracies are put to the test it quickly becomes obvious they have no idea what they're doing.

  167. @black sea
    @anonguy

    I noticed this as well. In yesterday's Daily Mail, they wrote about a "fit and healthy" 47 year old who died alone, but when you see his photographs he looks like a grossly obese 55 year old. Of course, his story was quite sad -- he died alone due to self-imposed quarantine -- but that doesn't make him "fit and healthy."

    https://www.dailymail.co.uk/news/article-8154747/Fit-healthy-banker-dies-coronavirus-isolation.html

    Replies: @anonguy, @BB753, @Hibernian, @Jonathan Mason

    People lying on their own behalf, and the media and crybaby left wing doctors lying concerning patients, about co-morbidities, is an obvious part of the mix. Of course mentioning HIV as a factor will bring down the wrath of God, or rather the wrath of the Devil. I love the social media posts about former pro athletes who got COVID-19. No mention of how sick they are, how long ago they retired, their life style, or any co-morbidities.

  168. @Coemgen
    I've long been wondering why Trump picked Mike Pence as his "lieutenant." Of course, he has his Christian creds but he's another "not so great" at teleprompter reading. Yet, he's been fantastic as Dr Pence during this pandemic. His bedside manner is world-class.

    Winning again!

    Of course, real winning will be if Trump get $1,000,000,000,000 to spend any way he wants.

    Replies: @Anonymous, @R.G. Camara, @ScarletNumber, @Realist

    I’ve long been wondering why Trump picked Mike Pence as his “lieutenant.” Of course, he has his Christian creds but he’s another “not so great” at teleprompter reading.

    The Rev Pence missed his calling.

  169. @PiltdownMan
    @Dave Pinsen

    Trump is likely in a stronger position than those who are criticizing his positive talk during this crisis are assuming. Although the economy will have tanked by November, he will be able to blame it on the virus, and avoid any accusation of personal failure in stewardship of the economy.

    Also, November is far away enough, that it is possible the markets will rebound in time for the fall election campaign—if the worst phase of this crisis proves to an affair lasting only a few months. He can also, and will, take direct credit for the grand in cash every voter would have received by then. And if a follow up stimulus package happens, as many are suggesting, he'll get a lift from that, too.

    Replies: @Ron Mexico, @BB753

    This outbreak also provides a good excuse for the dimmer contingent of Trump’s voters for not having built the wall. After all, the quarantine measures are the closest thing to a wall the Trump administration has ever devised.

  170. @danand
    @Louis Renault

    Mr.Renault, are you implying that the good doctor Lieber may be the evil Wuhan Coronaman? What a guy; wonder if he did what he done did for political/philosophical reasons, or was it all just about the Benjamins?


    According to court documents, since 2008, Dr. Lieber who has served as the Principal Investigator of the Lieber Research Group at Harvard University, which specialized in the area of nanoscience, has received more than $15,000,000 in grant funding from the National Institutes of Health (NIH) and Department of Defense (DOD). These grants require the disclosure of significant foreign financial conflicts of interest, including financial support from foreign governments or foreign entities. Unbeknownst to Harvard University beginning in 2011, Lieber became a “Strategic Scientist” at Wuhan University of Technology (WUT) in China and was a contractual participant in China’s Thousand Talents Plan from in or about 2012 to 2017.

    Under the terms of Lieber’s three-year Thousand Talents contract, WUT paid Lieber $50,000 USD per month, living expenses of up to 1,000,000 Chinese Yuan (approximately $158,000 USD at the time) and awarded him more than $1.5 million to establish a research lab at WUT.
     
    https://flic.kr/p/2iJ8pU9

    Replies: @Louis Renault

    No, but please feel free to repeat communist propaganda that ‘merica did it! He’s just corrupt.

  171. @black sea
    @anonguy

    I noticed this as well. In yesterday's Daily Mail, they wrote about a "fit and healthy" 47 year old who died alone, but when you see his photographs he looks like a grossly obese 55 year old. Of course, his story was quite sad -- he died alone due to self-imposed quarantine -- but that doesn't make him "fit and healthy."

    https://www.dailymail.co.uk/news/article-8154747/Fit-healthy-banker-dies-coronavirus-isolation.html

    Replies: @anonguy, @BB753, @Hibernian, @Jonathan Mason

    In yesterday’s Daily Mail, they wrote about a “fit and healthy” 47 year old who died alone, but when you see his photographs he looks like a grossly obese 55 year old. Of course, his story was quite sad — he died alone due to self-imposed quarantine — but that doesn’t make him “fit and healthy.”

    There is certainly a huge difference between what people with medical training and backgrounds consider what the words “fit and healthy” means compared to the opinion of journalists or members of the general public.

    In fact doctors do not even use that term, unless they are Donald Trump’s doctor. They are more likely to describe someone as something like a “well-nourished, well developed adult male in no apparent distress. All systems are WNL”

    To the medical person obesity, overweight, history of smoking, history of asthma, excessive use of alcohol, and substance abuse all form part of a diagnosis or are classified as risk factors. Diabetes type II is also closely associated with obesity and may be undiagnosed. And that is without even taking account of any results of blood tests that could show up diagnoses like high cholesterol or liver damage.

    • Replies: @Anon
    @Jonathan Mason

    Reporters who say someone has no pre-existing medical problems have no way of knowing. Why? Because of the doctor-patient confidentiality rule. Doctors CANNOT go around blabbing to the press about a patient's medical history. It has a special relationship like that between an attorney and client. Attorneys don't go blabbing to the press about what legal advice they gave to clients, and doctors don't go blabbing to the press about their patient's medical history. Reporters who are saying this crap are either making it up entirely, or using the patient's relatives as a source. But there are big problems even with the latter.

    Many times, even the patient's own family doesn't know about a relative's medical problems because the patient won't tell them. But the family doctor knows. Secondly, sometimes people who die haven't been to the doctor in ages, and there's nothing on their medical records that shows they have a pre-existing medical condition. But as the person aged, they could have become overweight, developed high blood pressure, or become type 2 diabetic, etc. There are plenty of pre-existing medical conditions a family might never know about. Sometimes the family know about a problem but are just in denial about it, and they insist that it couldn't have contributed to the death. Sometimes they're not smart enough to understand that something could even be a pre-existing medical condition.

    Most importantly, many of those dying are men. Men don't talk about their medical problems to other people the way women do. What's more, men are more likely to decide that it's better NOT to tell their family about their own pre-existing health problems to spare their wife and kids anxiety.

  172. @Intelligent Dasein

    I’m not a fan of the forced quarantines or the giant bailout, but am I really to believe anything would’ve been better if Obama or W were leading this shitshow of panic that has swept the nation?
     
    Never mind Obama and W, just imagine if Hillary was leading this shitshow. Can you even contemplate what horrors such a fate would encompass?

    Donald Trump is a sure sign that God still loves us and hasn't abandoned His creation.

    Replies: @Peter Akuleyev, @Corn, @Je Suis Omar Mateen

    If Obama or Hillary were in charge the travel bans would have been issued yesterday, if we were lucky.

    Can’t look ray-ciss.

  173. @Anonymous
    @Peter Akuleyev

    Hillary would not have had competent administrators. Anybody competent has left the Federal bureaucracy. Federal job holders are qualified by their ability to conform to Democratic politics, and that correlates negatively with ability. Consider the CDC's initial response to Covid-1. That would still be the CDC response had D. Trump not acted to change it. H. Clinton would have acted to reinforce the initial response so as not to let a crisis go to waste -- as N. Schumer is currently trying to do.
    Note that D. Trump has not made incompetent administrators competent. He has instead opened them so something they understand -- the "public-private' business is co-option by civil sector industry, in which civil sector provides the competence that has been exiled from the Federal government..
    Covid-19 is important because it presents the Federal government with a real problem that represents a real threat (shutdown of the "health care" industry) to the American population. The Federal government bureaucracy is proving unable to solve the problem; D. Trump is the only person addressing the problem rather than the politics of postmodernism (which claims the covid-19 problem is real, but dwarfed by intersectional unfairness).
    There has been a serious problem with legitimacy over at least the last 30 years, perhaps the last 60 years. Covid-19 makes the problem impossible to ignore.

    The chief opp0nents of the Deep State are itself and reality. It has been sustained by US military dominance since WW II. Note that there is a covid-19 outbreak aboard an aircraft carrier, crew 5000. The corpsmen have very limited test ability (thanks, CDC). What does this mean for US control of the sea lanes? Without that, US military dominance ends (it's already over for US ground forces and ending for USAF manned aircraft), and the world gets regional warfare -- which confronts the Deep State with problems well beyond its competence, or even beyond its ken.

    So don't disregard D. Trumps ability to assemble coalitions in the private sector. it's going to be needed even more than it is now.

    And, please, all you guys on Unz: Stop announcing that you've found the Devil and that he's a political opponent. Ever notice that opponents aren't mistaken, they are also sexual predictors who live solely to oppress and presumably kick kids dogs around before shooting the kids and having sex with the dogs? In other words, opponents are the Devil. When reading such comments, think that if the commenter is nasty enough to make such claims, he could just as easily make them about you, and what would you do then? Is not this person a threat to you?

    Replies: @FozzieT

    If Hillary had been elected we would not have been going through this crisis at all. The media would have treated it the same way they treated H1N1 when Obama was president. “Hey, there’s a new strain of flu going around. Stay home if you feel sick. Nothing more to see here. Move along, move along.”

    • Replies: @The Wild Geese Howard
    @FozzieT


    If Hillary had been elected we would not have been going through this crisis at all.
     
    If the Dems retake the WH in November the only thing we'll hear about Corona-chan is something like this:

    "Virus? What virus?"

    "Ohhhhh...that whole Corona thing? Right."

    "Well....the new studies show that it's only an issue for folks 65 and older who have compromised immune systems. Even then, the CFR is only 0.1% - no worse than the normal flu."

    "Besides, we know it is easily treatable with a cheap, widely available 50-year old anti-malarial, vitamin C, and zinc supplements."

    "Next question!"
  174. @RichardTaylor
    Trump isn't delusional, the freak out crowd is. No one who pushes this hysteria can explain why a "pandemic" that kills less than the Hong Kong Flu did in 1968 warrants this reaction.

    I think a certain type of nerd gets off on 'end of the world' scenarios. Asteroid collisions, volcanoes, pandemics, peak oil, etc, etc. It's a chance to let their nerd skills shine.

    Ya heard about exponential growth? See, you start with a penny and double it each day ...

    Replies: @Corn

    “I think a certain type of nerd gets off on ‘end of the world’ scenarios. Asteroid collisions, volcanoes, pandemics, peak oil, etc, etc. It’s a chance to let their nerd skills shine.”

    Ramzpaul has been talking about this. Certain groups are hoping for the Wu Flu to be disastrous. Right wing survivalist types would like to see this virus collapse America so they could leave their basements and bunkers and take charge. Hard lefties hope for the worst case scenarios to come true too, thinking it will discredit Trump, the right, etc. Then they can bring the socialist revolution to American shores.

    When this is all said and done most likely, we’ll be clanking along, just dealing with the same old shit.

    • Replies: @The Wild Geese Howard
    @Corn


    Hard lefties hope for the worst case scenarios to come true too, thinking it will discredit Trump, the right, etc. Then they can bring the socialist revolution to American shores.
     
    "Muh ethnic restaurants and world music & craft fairs from sea-to-shining-sea FTMFW!!!"
  175. The greatest risk factor for contracting the virus is being in a hospital.

    Most “superspreader events” during the SARS outbreak occurred INSIDE of hospitals.

    https://academic.oup.com/cid/article/44/8/1017/296620

    You are much better off staying away from hospitals if you have mild or moderate symptoms that can be manged at home.

    Even if you have severe flu-like symptoms, your chance of having COVID-19 is no higher than the chance that your decision to go to the hospital will expose you to it.

    Which raises the troubling question about that viral NY Post photo of all those people waiting in line to get into ElmHurst hospital in Queens. What are those people waiting in line for? They are putting themselves at high risk by waiting in that line. They are putting themselves at even higher risk if they succeed in their foolish quest to get inside that COVID-19 infested building. Unless they are so ill that they cannot take oral fluids to rehydrate at home, or so short of breath that they need supplemental oxygen, there is NO reason to go to that hospital. They are walking into their own demise.

    • Agree: AnonAnon, ben tillman
    • Replies: @moshe
    @PennTothal

    Is there data about HOW PEOPLE ACTUALLY CAUGHT THE VIRUS?

    I mean was it through kissing? Eating together at a table? TOUCHING a table that someone with the virus happens to have virus'ed onto?

    Where are the statistics about how EXACTLY the virus left the saluva of PERSON A and entered the saliva of PERSON B?

    Replies: @ben tillman

  176. @anon
    Here is an insightful 2016 book review of Trump’s 1988 memoir Trump: The Art of the Deal by Scott Alexander,

    That's when he was pitching for the KC Royals, right? Pretty cool he had time to read Trump's book and write a review.

    Replies: @njguy73, @MEH 0910

    Good one. But seriously, Doyle Alexander was with the Tigers then, having gone 9-0 down the stretch the previous year. Yeah, they had to give up some Double-A pitcher…

    • Replies: @ScarletNumber
    @njguy73

    No, the reference was to the pitcher Scott Alexander, who indeed pitched for the Royals in 2016. He is now a Dodger, pitching 3 games in the 2018 World Series. He pitched to a total of 7 batters, getting 4 of them out. He is scheduled to make $875,000 this upcoming season.

  177. @Hibernian
    @sb057


    Norman Vincent Peale and Roy Cohn.
     
    A phony Christian reverend and a stereotypical Jewish dude.

    Replies: @BB753, @njguy73

    Hey, don’t be saying that Roy Cohn represents us Jewish guys.

    Most of us like chicks.

    • LOL: Corn
    • Replies: @James J. O'Meara
    @njguy73

    Sarc, I assume. Cohn was the Ultimate Jew, everything he ever did or said was based on the art of chuzpah.

    As for the homo thing, one of the few times he ever deigned to address the issue, it's in that recent bio pic Where's My Roy Cohn? (a quote from Trump, btw), he said "A fag is someone who gets fucked, and I never get fucked; I fuck everyone else."

    As Grammy Hall would say, a "real New York Jew."

  178. @R.G. Camara
    Which is why I've been patient with Trump about building the wall/draining the swamp. It's wearing thin, but its stll there.

    Trump modus operandi in building is not piecemeal. He waits, waits, waits for the right opportunity, and then springs it all at once, full steam ahead. He's not a typical pol, with their slow rollouts and piecemeal death-by-a-thousand-cuts method. He hypes his projects up to the moon, but makes no definitive move till every piece is in place.

    Heck, this is how he ran for president. He made noise about running for decades, but waited until the perfect moment to actually do it: an opposing candidate with huge negatives (Hillary), a weak primary field (!Jeb!, Marco, Lyin' Ted, etc.), a foolproof method of getting his message out past network censors (his hugely popular Twitter feed, which was big before he ran), a few populist issues to run on (immigration, nationalism) and a change election for the opposing party (Obama was less popular than polls suggested, Bradley effect, as the 2012 turnout for him was less than 2008).

    So why would he change his methods now?

    The Wuhan flu is a huge monkey wrench, but I fully expect Trump to pull a real, actual October surprise.

    Replies: @Charon, @MEH 0910, @Sam Haysom, @ben tillman

    Good comment. I hope you’re right.

  179. @Dave Pinsen
    @Thomas

    Trump's approval rating on his handling of the virus is 60-38 in favor according to Gallop.

    https://twitter.com/GallupNews/status/1242768434632503296?s=20

    Since he declared a national emergency, Trump has briefed the country, with experts on hand, 7 days per week. I'm not sure what critics want Trump to do that he hasn't done yet. Ideally, he would have called for a shutdown earlier, but I'm not sure it would have been politically possible for him (remember, he was still in an impeachment trial going into February), and, in any case, governors seem to have the authority for these shutdowns.

    The real screw-ups have been at the FDA and the CDC, preventing the rapid manufacture of new masks and screwing up the test production. How much power does Trump, or any POTUS, have over the career civil servants in those agencies?

    Replies: @Mr McKenna, @The Germ Theory of Disease, @PiltdownMan, @Thomas, @Corvinus

    Check back in a few weeks, see what the current situation is on the outbreak and how his approval is then. Events are developing quickly and the trend with this crisis is we find out what the underlying situation actually is 2-3 weeks later.

    I’m not sure what critics want Trump to do that he hasn’t done yet. Ideally, he would have called for a shutdown earlier, but I’m not sure it would have been politically possible for him (remember, he was still in an impeachment trial going into February), and, in any case, governors seem to have the authority for these shutdowns.

    Trump hasn’t called for a shutdown at all, just the 15 days of social distancing measures. Yes, governors are the ones who order shutdowns. I’m not 100% convinced that the President couldn’t order a shutdown/quarantine though legally. Either way, some governors (Tate Reeves in Mississippi, Ron DeSantis in Florida) appear to be taking their cues from Trump. More problematic: his consistent mixed messaging and minimization of the situation (“look how many people the flu kills!” “We can’t let the cure be worse than the disease!”) is being followed, I’m afraid, by people who’ve gotten too used to listening to him and discarding any contradictory information. In this crisis, that could have deadly consequences. Beyond that, there’s the passive, incoherent direction of federal policy, under which his Administration is refusing to take the lead and coordinate a response.

    The real screw-ups have been at the FDA and the CDC, preventing the rapid manufacture of new masks and screwing up the test production. How much power does Trump, or any POTUS, have over the career civil servants in those agencies?

    The President ultimately is the Executive Branch, under the Constitution. He appoints the people who are supposed to head those agencies. (Though in Trump’s case, that’s more a matter of him not having appointed them, or having continually replaced those people.) “The buck stops here,” as Harry Truman said. Ultimately, he will be the one whose handling of this crisis the voters will pass judgment on, so kicking blame downstairs probably won’t fly. What powers Trump does have, for example, using the Defense Production Act to manufacture masks or other needed equipment, he’s not using, apparently for ideological reasons. (Heck of a time for him to become a Koch/Cato libertarian.) Even conservatives should recognize that this is a time for the “watchman state” to act.

    • Agree: Corvinus
    • Disagree: Desiderius
    • Replies: @Jack D
    @Thomas


    Events are developing quickly and the trend with this crisis is we find out what the underlying situation actually is 2-3 weeks later.
     
    This part of your comment I agree with - read any news story from 2 or 3 weeks ago and it's as if the story is coming from another planet. And 2 or 3 weeks from now, today's news stories will be equally clueless (one way or the other). Either the situation will be exponentially worse than today or it will be exponentially better but whatever it is, it won't be the same.

    Humans are set up to assume that tomorrow is going to be much like today and lack the imagination to conceive of radical changes that occur in a short amount of time. Science fiction writers and sometimes scientists predict these changes all the time and we can understand them on a rational level but we can't deal with them on an emotional level until they actually happen. There are a million predictions involving novel pathogens causing an epidemic but there are also a million predictions of massive earthquakes, tsunamis, asteroids striking the earth, etc. - you really don't know which low probability events to prepare for and you can't prepare for them all.

    If you went to pour your coffee tomorrow and suddenly the coffee poured up instead of down, you'd be really shocked and at a loss as what to do. And then if you figured it out and suddenly the coffee switched to pouring down again, you'd be at a temporary loss again. But humans are pretty smart and once we recover our equilibrium we figure it all out eventually. It just takes a little time.

    “The buck stops here”
     
    This is a pithy saying but it has absolutely nothing to do with reality. The reality (as many Presidents have found out) is that we have a large Permanent Government bureaucracy which is like a giant ship. The President is the helmsman and he can call down to the boiler room and ask for more steam or he can turn the wheel but in the short run nothing seems to happen because the ship has such momentum and because changing the captain does nothing to change the crew.

    Replies: @Thomas

  180. UK says:
    @Ron Unz
    Well, I'll take the liberty of republishing part of a comment I left on one of the earliest iSteve/Coronavirus posts almost exactly two weeks ago:

    Well, I’ve often pointed out the negative consequences of having a country run by its Ministry of Propaganda.

    For decades, America government and society has become more and more crazy and incompetent, with that reality concealed by our ever more sweeping propaganda. But since the Coronavirus doesn’t pay attention to the MSM, we’ll soon find out the consequences of that strategy.
     
    The biggest problem with the Coronavirus is that you can't deplatform it from Twitter when it does things you don't like...

    Replies: @wren, @trelane, @JimDandy, @Dieter Kief, @John Burns, Gettysburg Partisan, @UK, @Forbes, @dfordoom

    An ironic post coming from someone who sounds like intelligent Chinese propaganda. By the way, why do you think the Chinese are slowly re-opening up if they really think the US/Jews did it? If one thought that then it would be totally crazy and irrational to suppose the virus wouldn’t be re-seeded.

  181. For the “It’s Just the Flu!!!” crowd, there was a sobering report in my morning San Jose Mercury News…

    Santa Clara county officials now say they expect 2,000 deaths by July, ONE HUNDRED TIMES the current number of fatalities. And that’s *despite* Santa Clara having led the US in implementing a total lock-down ten days ago:

    https://www.mercurynews.com/2020/03/26/coronavirus-santa-clara-county-could-see-2000-deaths-in-12-weeks-officials-say/

    Since New York was much slower to put in place a lockdown and the public transit and high-density living make transmission far easier, wouldn’t that suggest at least an increase of 100x in fatalities in NY, bringing the July total to half a million in that state? Frankly, I’d guess at a much higher number.

    Interestingly enough, the official estimate of true infections in Santa Clara county is very similar to that produced by my simple methodology, suggesting that the public health officials are using something along those same lines:

    https://www.unz.com/runz/correctly-estimating-coronavirus-infections/

    • Replies: @John Burns, Gettysburg Partisan
    @Ron Unz


    For the “It’s Just the Flu!!!” crowd, there was a sobering report in my morning San Jose Mercury News…
     
    It's pretty sad to see you make such false characterizations.

    As I've said elsewhere, no serious dissenter or critic is saying "it's just the flu."
    , @Thomas
    @Ron Unz


    Santa Clara county officials now say they expect 2,000 deaths by July, ONE HUNDRED TIMES the current number of fatalities.
     
    Based on the population of Santa Clara County, extrapolated to the rest of the United States, that would suggest a little over 300,000 dead nationwide. Compared to the 30,000 dead the "just the flu, just the flu!" parrots keep mouthing, that tracks with this being about 10 times more lethal.

    The University of Washington School of Medicine (USNWR national ranks: #13 in research, #2 in primary care) is predicting 81,000 U.S. deaths by July 1. If you look at their model, it matches the daily death toll so far. And that's with what we're doing now.

    https://www.seattletimes.com/seattle-news/health/uw-model-says-social-distancing-is-starting-to-work-but-still-projects-1400-coronavirus-deaths-in-the-state/

    https://covid19.healthdata.org/projections

    Replies: @Ron Unz, @AnotherDad, @Jack D, @Boethiuss, @Thatgirl

    , @BN
    @Ron Unz

    when do you expect the death rate to start spiking?

    https://covidtracking.com/data/state/california/

    this is for the entire state. so very little information on these deaths too.

    , @XYZ (no Mr.)
    @Ron Unz

    The article itself states the high projections are from San Jose city officials, and that Santa Clara county officials disagree with them.

    Have some exactness in your thoughts for once.

    , @res
    @Ron Unz

    Ron, they are using a R0 of 2.2. Do you think that is reasonable in light of the current social distancing measures?

    For anyone interested, here are the case estimates:


    The projections from San Jose’s Office of Emergency Management that were shared with the council suggest there are actually 9,000-19,000 cases of coronavirus in Santa Clara County today.
     
    Compare that to the hard data:

    Santa Clara County, which reported the first Northern California infection Jan. 31, is the hardest hit in the Bay Area with its confirmed 542 positive tests, 154 hospitalizations and 19 deaths. Nearly half of the total cases are presumed to have come from community transmission.
     
    Agree that those numbers make it look like they are using something like your methodology. That 19,000 upper bound would correspond exactly to a fatality rate of 1%. That seems unlikely to be a coincidence.

    But shouldn't the case estimate be higher then given the infection-mortality lag?

    Replies: @Ron Unz

  182. @Ron Unz
    @education realist


    Like many here, I completely disagree with Steve on this and have found it interesting how the skeptic community has broken up over this. Steve. JayMan, Claire Lehmann seem to think it’s fine to bankrupt the economy in the name of “Just One Less Death”, whereas Philippe, Ben SixSmith and others were worried at first but now worry we’ve overreacted.... And I’ve literally blocked Jay, he’s so obnoxious.
     
    Well, I'm vaguely familiar with Claire Lehmann, who's the editor of Quillette. But I don't spend my time on Twitter, so I don't have a clue who "Philippe" is. And what in the world is a "Ben SixSmith"?

    Offhand, it sounds like the divide may be between individuals who can do math and individuals who can't. For example, here's a graph someone just provided of the current exponential death-curve for New York:

    https://i.ibb.co/b610g3M/Graph0.png

    https://www.unz.com/runz/correctly-estimating-coronavirus-infections/#comment-3797732

    Replies: @education realist, @Kratoklastes, @Brás Cubas, @John Burns, Gettysburg Partisan, @Intelligent Dasein, @ThreeCranes, @keypusher

    You fell victim to one of the classic blunders. Never get involved in a math battle with The Internet when death is on the line!

  183. @RichardTaylor
    @JimDandy


    But are ICUs not actually being overwhelmed, in ways that haven’t happened in previous regular ol’ flu seasons?
     
    Where are ICUs in America clogged?

    I did hear hospitals in NYC are getting a lot of hypochondriacs in the waiting rooms.

    Does anyone know if ICUs across the country are overwhelmed?

    Replies: @anon, @JimDandy, @Anonymous

    That is the signature of this disease. People get sick, 1% end up in ICUs, and don’t die right away.

    There are roughly 35 beds per 100,000 Americans. Not enough for even a small surge.

  184. @The Germ Theory of Disease
    @Dave Pinsen

    In December and January, when a dangerous highly contagious pandemic was brewing in China, a country with tremendous international reach and penetration to every nook in the globe, during that time which presented a critical early action window, Democrats and their mouthpieces in the media and academia decided unanimously, in one loud, sonorous, screeching voice, that the most vital priority of the nation was to investigate and impeach the president for possibly saying something mean to some guy in Ukraine.

    They were on record about this, loud and clear: the well-known potential epidemic (I was making jokes about bat soup over Christmas dinner) was not mentioned by Democrats and their megaphone buddies at all --- no no no, no sir, the first and only order of business was Orange Man said something which bafflingly had something to do with Ukraine arms expenditures which nobody understands, and Creepy Joe's drug-addled son. Defending the honor of Hunter Biden and his stripper baby-mama was top priority for Democrats, even if it regrettably meant taking a president's scalp.

    Do not ever let them forget this.

    When Trump banned travel entry from China at end of Jan, the left and Dems howled racism, and NYT and WaPo moaned that "studies" and "experts" had shown that restricting international travel does not diminish a highly contagious international disease. That was the leftist line: Orange Man Racist, no further nuance.

    Do not ever let the, forget this.

    If Trump had rolled out social distancing, a nationwide work stoppage and the stock market tanked, all back on 2/1/20, the left would have been screaming Nazi! Racist! Authoritarian madness! He's gonna put us all in caaaaamps!! Trump destroyed the Dow, which we suddenly want to be high, he ruined the economy with his draconian Nazi policies without evidence. And they'd all be handcuffing themselves to the nearest Chunese person in protest.

    Do not ever let them forget this.

    Replies: @Redneck farmer, @Rob (LM), @Anon7

    Exactly. I seem to remember from my 9th grade civics classes that one of the arguments for having a Chief Executive with broad powers is that he could react more quickly in times of crisis than a big bicameral legislature and civil service bureaucracy.

    The Democrats must take the blame for having hamstrung our President at exactly the time we needed him. In particular, Nancy Pelosi, the first woman to be Speaker of the House, and the highest elected female official in the United States, is fully responsible for this catastrophe. She’s a disaster.

  185. I have never seen anything as mind-boggingly close to a dystopian Hollywood flick than Derbyshire Police pursuing hikers by drone, adding glitzy panopticon-superstate-style computer overlays, then using the footage for Innenministeriuminformationszwecke.

    • Replies: @Testing12
    @El Dato

    It's like a prequel to the Tom Cruise movie Oblivion.

    I've never imagined there would be such a stampede toward totalitarianism by the American public. Much less by "conservatives".

  186. @YetAnotherAnon
    Boris has coronachan.

    https://www.bbc.co.uk/news/uk-52060791

    Prime Minister Boris Johnson has tested positive for coronavirus, Downing Street has said.

    Mr Johnson has mild symptoms and will self-isolate in Downing Street.

    "He was tested for coronavirus on the personal advice of England's chief medical officer, Professor Chris Whitty," a statement said.

    He will still be in charge of the government's handling of the crisis, the statement added.
     

    Replies: @YetAnotherAnon

    Now the UK Health Minister has coronachan. They’re dropping like flies!

  187. “Trump is good at conveying good news, but not good at conveying bad news. So when there is bad news, don’t expect him to convey very vividly what it is.”

    Thanks for trying address my points, albeit in your typical cagey manner, Mr. Sailer. But you are getting better at being more transparent!

    The reality here is Trump is good at conveying what good news he MANUFACTURES, and is not good at conveying the bad news that his advisors or “Deep State” officials offer because it does fit into HIS CREATION. This “bad news” means that Trump has to spin it in a way that benefits his crafted narrative.

    As a result, we bear witness to his daily re-election campaign soundbites, I mean Covid-19 updates, where he has to minimize his own incompetence and maximize his apparent leadership qualities. In the end, he will take the credit for things he did not do and lay blame for things he did do or neglected to do to other people.

    So, while we can expect him to NOT convey it “very vividly”, YOU can certainly address it with your alleged superior pattern recognition skills. So you do NOTICE it, Mr. Sailer, but just cannot bring yourself to admit it fully to your audience in digital form.

    • Replies: @Manfred Arcane
    @Corvinus

    Steve, look out: When Corvinus is complimenting you, it's a sure sign you're starting to jump the shark. Don't spook yourself so badly over the Coronavirus that you get the Corvirus.

    Replies: @Pericles

  188. @wren
    @Achmed E. Newman

    I still enjoy the alternative media selection I get at zerohedge, but sometimes do feel that it is surely funded by Putin. They disappointed me when they yanked a pro-Russian post that turned out to be fake news at best and perhaps pure propaganda at worst. Down the memory hole altogether.

    During this crisis I have really enjoyed chinese (and Uyghur) users on Twitter. Lots of insights.

    For example, today, "Harry Chen, PhD" was explaining his theory about how the virus got into all the nooks and crannies in North America, and it made sense based on my own personal experience here in my provincial neck of the woods.


    Yes, but significant percentages of Canada's population live in rural areas which were visited by asian city folk during the great mask/sanitizer buy...now look, anywhere near a major city, cases popping up...this is how it always starts
     

    Replies: @The Wild Geese Howard

    For example, today, “Harry Chen, PhD” was explaining his theory about how the virus got into all the nooks and crannies in North America, and it made sense based on my own personal experience here in my provincial neck of the woods.

    Smartphone location data from a single beach in FL and NYC shows us plenty of vectors for this or any other virus to travel around:

    https://www.dailydot.com/debug/cellphone-heat-map-coronavirus/

  189. @Harry Baldwin
    @Boethiuss

    In an extreme case with particular relevance, consider the cruise ship business.

    Cruise ships shouldn't even be on our radar when it comes to saving businesses. They aren't owned by American companies, don't pay American taxes, and don't employ many Americans.

    Replies: @wren, @Boethiuss, @The Wild Geese Howard, @Daniel Chieh

    Cruise ships shouldn’t even be on our radar when it comes to saving businesses. They aren’t owned by American companies, don’t pay American taxes, and don’t employ many Americans.

    I agree completely. We’re talking about “re-opening the economy” though, and my point was we could end all the quarantines, and it doesn’t mean people are going to volunteer to go out in the crowd and spend money.

  190. @Dave Pinsen
    @Thomas

    Trump's approval rating on his handling of the virus is 60-38 in favor according to Gallop.

    https://twitter.com/GallupNews/status/1242768434632503296?s=20

    Since he declared a national emergency, Trump has briefed the country, with experts on hand, 7 days per week. I'm not sure what critics want Trump to do that he hasn't done yet. Ideally, he would have called for a shutdown earlier, but I'm not sure it would have been politically possible for him (remember, he was still in an impeachment trial going into February), and, in any case, governors seem to have the authority for these shutdowns.

    The real screw-ups have been at the FDA and the CDC, preventing the rapid manufacture of new masks and screwing up the test production. How much power does Trump, or any POTUS, have over the career civil servants in those agencies?

    Replies: @Mr McKenna, @The Germ Theory of Disease, @PiltdownMan, @Thomas, @Corvinus

    “The real screw-ups have been at the FDA and the CDC, preventing the rapid manufacture of new masks and screwing up the test production.”

    That would fall on the Trump Administration, as the executive branch oversees their efforts. Remember, it took a visit from a Fox News personality to finally realize that Covid-19 was serious.

    As far as this poll, we need context. Like the other polls, the results fell along party lines. Other polls have shown Trump’s overall job approval rating has risen. But if Trump’s approval is increasing due to a “rally effect”, it appears to be modest compared with the rise in support for other presidents dealing with crises. After 911, President George W. Bush’s approval rating spiked 35 percentage points, according to Gallup. “There is a rally effect happening, but the rally is extraordinarily weak compared to other modern presidents,” Larry Sabato, the director of the University of Virginia’s Center for Politics, told USA TODAY. “Incredibly, Trump still hasn’t crossed the 50% mark in job approval – a much more important measure than public views about Trump’s handling of the pandemic. Why is that? Americans either love Trump or hate Trump, and the vast majority will never change their evaluation”.

    • Agree: PhysicistDave
    • Troll: YetAnotherAnon
    • Replies: @PhysicistDave
    @Corvinus

    Corvinus wrote:



    [Dave Pinsen] “The real screw-ups have been at the FDA and the CDC, preventing the rapid manufacture of new masks and screwing up the test production.”

     

    [Corvinus] That would fall on the Trump Administration, as the executive branch oversees their efforts. Remember, it took a visit from a Fox News personality to finally realize that Covid-19 was serious.
     
    Ah, Corvinus, you are becoming increasingly sensible!

    I assume by "Fox News personality," you mean Tucker Carlson? Glad to see you can give credit to the other side of the aisle. Tucker, and also Laura Ingraham, have been performing the task all journalists are supposed to perform: raising the issue of masks, of the trade-off between public health and the collapse of the economy, and, as you say, the initial realization that Covid-19 is very, very real.

    And, yes, you are right again in endorsing Pinsen's point about the CDC and FDA, masks, and testing. Obviously, Trump was in fact ignorant of their deficiencies, but the captain of the ship takes full responsibility for the ship. Let's see if Trump fixes the deep structural problems that led to these failures. (No, I am not at all sure Trump is a structural kind of guy.)

    Who knows: maybe this tragedy will bring together men and women of all political persuasions to try to figure out what went wrong and to say "Never again."

    I mean if you can agree with Pinsen, and I can agree with you, and you can give credit to a Fox News personality... maybe good things can happen.
  191. @Harry Baldwin
    @Boethiuss

    In an extreme case with particular relevance, consider the cruise ship business.

    Cruise ships shouldn't even be on our radar when it comes to saving businesses. They aren't owned by American companies, don't pay American taxes, and don't employ many Americans.

    Replies: @wren, @Boethiuss, @The Wild Geese Howard, @Daniel Chieh

    Cruise ships shouldn’t even be on our radar when it comes to saving businesses.

    Bermuda and Panama are fairly well-off. The cruise lines flagged there should beg them for money.

    As for the line flagged in Liberia, well, sucks to be them.

    • Replies: @anon
    @The Wild Geese Howard

    It's not just Cruise Ships. All international Shipping is done with non US registered ships. US shipping must operate under the Jones Act. It's a holdover protectionist scheme from the 1920's. Barges and the like operate under it.

    Without the tax and regulatory relief, no one could afford cruises.

    But, even so, there is a reasonably significant amount of knock on business associated with the cruise industry. Travel agents, ports, etc. Disney Cruises.

    So maybe a loan, but not a major bailout.

    Replies: @anonguy

  192. Either way, some governors (Tate Reeves in Mississippi, Ron DeSantis in Florida) appear to be taking their cues from Trump.

    I don’t know about that. I think governor DeSantis is his own man and is making decisions based on the peculiar nature of Florida’s population, population distribution, geography, climate, and so on.

    Two days ago he sent a letter requesting that Trump declare a Major Emergency in Florida so as to activate FEMA relief.

    https://miami.cbslocal.com/wp-content/uploads/sites/15909786/2020/03/desantis-covid19-declaration.pdf

    DeSantis also issued an executive order Monday requiring anyone arriving on a flight from the New York City area to self-quarantine for two weeks. It is not clear what he is doing about cars with New York plates arriving on I-95. Surely a state of emergency trumps stuff like the interstate commerce clause?

    Trump has not been slow to declare states of emergency before, for example in the southern border states of the US when it was believed that the US was losing effective control of territory due to incursions from Mexicans and central Americans.

    • Replies: @Jonathan Mason
    @Jonathan Mason

    So far no county in Florida has exceeded 4 deaths. Miami-Dade has 640 cases and still no deaths.

    All the counties with the highest number of deaths in Florida are where the big hospitals are, places like Orlando, Orange Park, Gainesville, Fort Lauderdale. Many counties have zero deaths.

    Stay away from hospitals!

    Replies: @Thomas

    , @Pericles
    @Jonathan Mason

    Maybe Trump should declare an emergency and lock down superspreading New York and California until after the election. They get to live and they can vote in 2024 or 2032 or something. You know, when the danger has passed.

    Also, speaking of CA, Dianne "disloyal opposition and inside trader" Feinstein in jail when?

  193. @RichardTaylor
    @JimDandy


    But are ICUs not actually being overwhelmed, in ways that haven’t happened in previous regular ol’ flu seasons?
     
    Where are ICUs in America clogged?

    I did hear hospitals in NYC are getting a lot of hypochondriacs in the waiting rooms.

    Does anyone know if ICUs across the country are overwhelmed?

    Replies: @anon, @JimDandy, @Anonymous

    That’s true, so far it’s all “We are very close to being overwhelmed… doctors are privately deciding who will live and who will die under triage…”

    But are you asserting that if America didn’t enact social distancing measures, American ICUs still wouldn’t have gotten overwhelmed, as they have in Italy and China?

  194. anon[414] • Disclaimer says:
    @JimDandy
    @Ron Unz

    An extreme segregation of the elderly and other high-risk people seems like the key to me--not just for their own sakes, but to keep the system from getting overwhelmed.

    Replies: @BB753, @anon

    “Of course the problem is not solved. As long as people can be judged by the color of their skin, the problem’s not solved. As long as there are people who still… And there’s a whole generation — I said this for apartheid South Africa, I said this for my own community in the South — there are still generations of people, older people, who were born and bred and marinated in it, in that prejudice and racism, and they just have to die.”

    https://www.snopes.com/fact-check/oprah-winfrey-old-white-people-have-to-die/

    I love copy and paste sometimes.

  195. @Ron Unz
    For the "It's Just the Flu!!!" crowd, there was a sobering report in my morning San Jose Mercury News...

    Santa Clara county officials now say they expect 2,000 deaths by July, ONE HUNDRED TIMES the current number of fatalities. And that's *despite* Santa Clara having led the US in implementing a total lock-down ten days ago:

    https://www.mercurynews.com/2020/03/26/coronavirus-santa-clara-county-could-see-2000-deaths-in-12-weeks-officials-say/

    Since New York was much slower to put in place a lockdown and the public transit and high-density living make transmission far easier, wouldn't that suggest at least an increase of 100x in fatalities in NY, bringing the July total to half a million in that state? Frankly, I'd guess at a much higher number.

    Interestingly enough, the official estimate of true infections in Santa Clara county is very similar to that produced by my simple methodology, suggesting that the public health officials are using something along those same lines:

    https://www.unz.com/runz/correctly-estimating-coronavirus-infections/

    Replies: @John Burns, Gettysburg Partisan, @Thomas, @BN, @XYZ (no Mr.), @res

    For the “It’s Just the Flu!!!” crowd, there was a sobering report in my morning San Jose Mercury News…

    It’s pretty sad to see you make such false characterizations.

    As I’ve said elsewhere, no serious dissenter or critic is saying “it’s just the flu.”

  196. I guess that’s another post that won’t see the light of day? So much for all that free speech talk.

  197. @Corvinus
    "Trump is good at conveying good news, but not good at conveying bad news. So when there is bad news, don’t expect him to convey very vividly what it is."

    Thanks for trying address my points, albeit in your typical cagey manner, Mr. Sailer. But you are getting better at being more transparent!

    The reality here is Trump is good at conveying what good news he MANUFACTURES, and is not good at conveying the bad news that his advisors or "Deep State" officials offer because it does fit into HIS CREATION. This "bad news" means that Trump has to spin it in a way that benefits his crafted narrative.

    As a result, we bear witness to his daily re-election campaign soundbites, I mean Covid-19 updates, where he has to minimize his own incompetence and maximize his apparent leadership qualities. In the end, he will take the credit for things he did not do and lay blame for things he did do or neglected to do to other people.

    So, while we can expect him to NOT convey it "very vividly", YOU can certainly address it with your alleged superior pattern recognition skills. So you do NOTICE it, Mr. Sailer, but just cannot bring yourself to admit it fully to your audience in digital form.

    Replies: @Manfred Arcane

    Steve, look out: When Corvinus is complimenting you, it’s a sure sign you’re starting to jump the shark. Don’t spook yourself so badly over the Coronavirus that you get the Corvirus.

    • Replies: @Pericles
    @Manfred Arcane

    When one is getting a strange new respect from Corvinus, it's time to take stock of one's actions.

  198. @James Speaks

    Trump is good at conveying good news, but not good at conveying bad news. So when there is bad news, don’t expect him to convey very vividly what it is.

    Your health may depend upon you keeping this in mind.
     
    Thank you for making it clear! Trump views the 'recession problem' as people believing there will be a recession and therefore it is his job as a developer to convince everyone to believe there won't be a recession.

    As a developer he should have an understanding of some of the characteristics of TVM (time value of money) but I doubt he thinks long term; only looks at short term possibilities where a capital cost is converted into debt service, or an investment become an income stream. He probably understands that with higher interest rates future money is less valuable, but I doubt he can grasp exponentials at all, and certainly not with exponential growth, namely lag phase (when travelors were infecting everyone and the government did nothing), log phase (straight line on a semilog plot - i.e. exponential growth), declining growth when Ro is reduced, and then decline when people stop being ill either through health or death.

    I fully expect him to proclaim victory during the naturally occurring decline phase regardless of how many Americans have died.

    However

    The point of this ramble on is to stress that we can go to Johns Hopkins coronavirus dashboard and collect our own data, then use a suitable means to graph log of new cases versus time, and decide for ourselve what's what.

    I did that. What's what is that we are just barely emerging from lag phase and transitioning into log growth even as mitigation is starting to happen.

    A key metric will be number of hospital beds versus number needing hospital care.

    Replies: @ThreeCranes

    “ What’s what is that we are just barely emerging from lag phase and transitioning into log growth even as mitigation is starting to happen.”

    This is precisely it.

    For those who don’t want to wade through the math, just go the e.g. DailyMail and peruse the graphs of the growth of the cases of incidence and death in China, Italy, USA and the world.

    Now, in your mind’s eye, move the graphs of the USA and world over and superimpose them on the graphs of China and Italy. See where they coincide? We are currently transitioning from the slow ramping up stage into the exponential growth stage.

    Those who blithely predict that we have weathered the storm and should drop all counter measures, are whistling past the graveyard.

    https://www.dailymail.co.uk/news/article-8157963/US-coronavirus-cases-world.html

  199. Your health may depend upon you keeping this in mind.

    Yes, both parts.

    The Power of Positive Thinking is real and it’s spectacular.

  200. @Ron Unz
    For the "It's Just the Flu!!!" crowd, there was a sobering report in my morning San Jose Mercury News...

    Santa Clara county officials now say they expect 2,000 deaths by July, ONE HUNDRED TIMES the current number of fatalities. And that's *despite* Santa Clara having led the US in implementing a total lock-down ten days ago:

    https://www.mercurynews.com/2020/03/26/coronavirus-santa-clara-county-could-see-2000-deaths-in-12-weeks-officials-say/

    Since New York was much slower to put in place a lockdown and the public transit and high-density living make transmission far easier, wouldn't that suggest at least an increase of 100x in fatalities in NY, bringing the July total to half a million in that state? Frankly, I'd guess at a much higher number.

    Interestingly enough, the official estimate of true infections in Santa Clara county is very similar to that produced by my simple methodology, suggesting that the public health officials are using something along those same lines:

    https://www.unz.com/runz/correctly-estimating-coronavirus-infections/

    Replies: @John Burns, Gettysburg Partisan, @Thomas, @BN, @XYZ (no Mr.), @res

    Santa Clara county officials now say they expect 2,000 deaths by July, ONE HUNDRED TIMES the current number of fatalities.

    Based on the population of Santa Clara County, extrapolated to the rest of the United States, that would suggest a little over 300,000 dead nationwide. Compared to the 30,000 dead the “just the flu, just the flu!” parrots keep mouthing, that tracks with this being about 10 times more lethal.

    The University of Washington School of Medicine (USNWR national ranks: #13 in research, #2 in primary care) is predicting 81,000 U.S. deaths by July 1. If you look at their model, it matches the daily death toll so far. And that’s with what we’re doing now.

    https://www.seattletimes.com/seattle-news/health/uw-model-says-social-distancing-is-starting-to-work-but-still-projects-1400-coronavirus-deaths-in-the-state/

    https://covid19.healthdata.org/projections

    • Replies: @Ron Unz
    @Thomas


    Based on the population of Santa Clara County, extrapolated to the rest of the United States, that would suggest a little over 300,000 dead nationwide. Compared to the 30,000 dead the “just the flu, just the flu!” parrots keep mouthing, that tracks with this being about 10 times more lethal.
     
    Exactly!! Santa Clara county led the nation in having the first total lock-down, implemented about 10 days ago. Plus the low-density suburban living very likely reduces transmission, as well as the generally affluent, well-educated population, who can and will take reasonable precautions.

    So if the rest of America had gone into the same total lock-down 10 days ago, the entire country might have escaped with only 500,000 to 1M dead (reflecting the much higher intrinsic risk factors).

    But instead time was lost and continues to be lost. If you assume a doubling-period of 3 days, waiting just a single extra week raises the number of infections by roughly a factor of 5x, greatly increasing the likelihood that the local health care system will collapse, which in turn raises the death rate by another factor of 5x. An exponential process is very much determined by early steps.

    Anyway, let's just say I'm *very* happy I live in Santa Clara county rather than NYC...

    Replies: @Faraday's Bobcat

    , @AnotherDad
    @Thomas


    The University of Washington School of Medicine (USNWR national ranks: #13 in research, #2 in primary care) is predicting 81,000 U.S. deaths by July 1. If you look at their model, it matches the daily death toll so far. And that’s with what we’re doing now.
     
    Yes, and 80,000 deaths is a big yawn... unless one of them is someone i care about.

    The "it's just the flu" folks are wrong. But the Chicken Littles are wrong too. The credible numbers suggest it's just a super-flu--similar contagion, 10-50x as lethal but skewing even more strongly to the elderly.

    The only place we have numerator and denominator is the Diamond Princess.
    -- 3700 on board
    -- 712 testing positive for Chinese virus
    -- 331 asymptomatic!
    -- ~70 hospitalized
    -- 9 or 10 dead all elderly
    1.4% death rate in a very elderly skewing population with--after some incompetence and delay--medical care available. Which works out to something like a .2% death rate for the whole US population. All other counts of "cases" come with huge selection bias. We aren't testing everyone and are not going to. Seemingly half the people do not even see any symptoms. Most of the rest they will be indistinguishable from ordinary cold, flu.

    Coming up with a "thousands dead" death count is not impressive. People die. Near 3 million Americans die every year. 30-60,000 of those are estimated to be from the flu in a typical year. Again mostly a culling of those who are elderly or in poor health. You gotta die of something!

    This could increase the "flu cull" by 10x and you'd have say a couple hundred thousand dead. You'd have US deaths rocket from 2.7 million last year to ... 2.9 million! Almost all the excess either elderly or in poor health. Deaths in general just moved forward a few years.

    Perspective.

    Replies: @Thomas

    , @Jack D
    @Thomas

    To put this in perspective, in a normal year the US registers around 2,800,000+ deaths (including around 35,000 flu deaths). So an additional 80,000 deaths is 3% excess mortality. And much of that mortality will be made up later, as the 80,000 who die now would mostly (not all, but mostly) have died in the next 3 to 5 years anyway. This doesn't sound like the Apocalypse to me. We have had epidemics before but never before have we shut down the world economy for them. What has changed?

    Replies: @anon, @epebble, @Thomas, @James N. Kennett

    , @Boethiuss
    @Thomas


    Based on the population of Santa Clara County, extrapolated to the rest of the United States, that would suggest a little over 300,000 dead nationwide. Compared to the 30,000 dead the “just the flu, just the flu!” parrots keep mouthing, that tracks with this being about 10 times more lethal.
     
    Cut the shit already.

    About a month ago OMB Director/Chief of Staff Mick Mulvaney said that coronavirus was a media hoax exaggerated by the press to get the better of President Trump politically. He was wrong, and that was stupid. We're not buying that story any more. Now what?

    With all the fcukups and incompetence and missed opportunities and the rest of it, the ultimate consequence of this virus, where millions of lives and trillions of dollars hang in the balance depending on decisions we make starting from now, so let's make good ones.

    I don't agree with everything EducationRealist has written in this thread, but he is right to say this "U R stoopid, don't kno math LOL" business is tedious and a distraction.

    I don't have a crystal ball any more than anybody else does, but I suspect that what we're going to find out reasonably soon is that the bad news isn't as bad as we've been told by some, and the good news isn't as good as we've been led to believe by others.

    There will be some quasi-vaccination, some treatment mitigation, some heretofore unknown epidemiological constraint, etc, that will help us dial down the panic a few notches. Even then, that doesn't mean we can "reopen the economy", everything will be back to normal and we'll all have a very merry Christmas.

    Even then, we'll still have the China Flu around, and it will still be much more lethal, and much more contagious than anything we could have anticipated prior to eight weeks ago. How will we cope with that, where the scale of the problem seems to be significant but not overwhelming? I for one do not expect that everybody is going to return to the restaurants, bars, hotels, airplanes, yoga studios, etc, like nothing happened. Yet somehow, in that world we're going to have to figure how to preserve our values and our way of life as best as we can.

    What I am thinking of and what I suspect might happen is something like this: starting in the summer or the fall and for the 1-3 years following we enact a dramatic multifaceted group of policy changes that's quite radical in the the context of our politics over the last forty years, and at the same time very traditionalist in terms of its ends. Specfically, we pump trillions of dollars into the economy to rescue as many individuals and companies (large and small) that are salvageable. The feds borrow as much money as they can from the credit markets. Then, for all Treasury debt borrowed before such and such a date, we stiff the creditors for interest but not principal.

    Then, we (partially) cut Social Security and Medicare, and rack up significant primary surpluses and start paying down the debt. Rezone California and a few other places, ban single family residences of more than 6000 sq ft, ban multiple or foreign ownership or in general a few people controlling lots of real estate that they are not living in. Maybe most important, create new logistics command inside the US Army, to be tasked with being able to manage domestic inventory of crucial supplies, with its own authority to spin up factories and acquire raw materials as necessary, thereby hardening our supply chains.

    Overall, I suspect that we will defeat this crisis on the basis of what we accomplish, not what we avoid. Right now, we're in a mindset of avoiding the virus, which is probably the correct mindset for the moment. But soon enough that switch is going to flip, and when it does we need to be ready to move. So right now, while we're all sitting at home, let's figure out where we're trying to go.
    , @Thatgirl
    @Thomas

    There were an estimated 80,000 flu deaths in US last year, not 30,000.

    So we wouldn’t have 10x more deaths but 3.75x.

    https://www.google.com/amp/s/www.vox.com/platform/amp/2018/9/27/17910318/flu-deaths-2018-epidemic-outbreak-shot

  201. @Achmed E. Newman
    @Steve Sailer

    Indeed. He had to be somebody really special or, more likely, KNEW somebody really special, to get out of that madness and get to come here back when our universities were the best in the world (on the whole, people). A dozen or so Chinese graduate students came to our town in the mid-1980s, and it was an unheard-of-before big deal. They were like men from Mars.

    Alice is pretty much right in her comment, though I'd say, the Chinese influx into graduate schools started just a tad earlier, sometime in the early 1990s. Yes, you never know who was spying, likely more for industry than the Chinese government. Now, besides their filling up every math/science/engineering department, lots of Chinese people are "visiting scholars" in every kind of major, including Education. It's a crock to begin with, and now these people are supposed to illuminate the Schools of Education or take home some of that valuable knowledge from the Professional Educators? Balderdash!

    No, the visiting scholar thing is a way for Chinese visitors to get support for their government to spread Chinese culture, while the have their kids immersed in English in the best schools around (believe me, they know how to pick), and enjoy the American lifestyle for a year or more if they can work out some kind of eventual green card deal...

    As Alice wrote too, the high schools have gotten into the act. A Catholic school we know had people going to China to recruit. They want that full tuition money, but they try to get American families to put the kids up for cheap.

    I hope the readers don't think I'm anti-Chinese, though. It's quite the opposite on a personal level. I just happen to know a lot from that, and I'll tell it like it is.

    Replies: @Steve Sailer, @Lugash

    Here’s a story of Chinese nationals(?) taking private jets home. Including a high school student in Wisconsin whose Dad was offering her 20K to stay in America:

    https://nypost.com/2020/03/25/chinese-students-pay-20k-for-private-jet-flights-out-of-us-as-coronavirus-spreads/

    • Replies: @Achmed E. Newman
    @Lugash

    Thank you, Lugash. I just read it. Yeah, that'd be some bad luck, getting out of China after the flu spread during Spring Festival, arriving back at the university town to hang out with your Chinese friends and colleagues, and then... the infotainment panic-fest! Be really careful which plane you get on, people. If the tail number is something like 444CV, then stay on the freaking ground, for cryin' out loud.

    Unlike Americans who don't take the number 13 seriously anymore (go look at aircraft gates and seating, next time you can) and for which lucky-7 is just for fun at Lost Wages, the Chinese are still pretty hard-core with their superstitions. There is a taxi company that heavily serves the Charlotte, N. Carolina airport with the phone number (704) 444-4444. I've never seen a Chinaman get into one of those taxis (of course, I don't really pay attention, so ...)

    Yes, though, there are some real richies now from China. I would say "good on 'em", but from my insider info., most of the really rich kids have Dads who are corrupt CCP officials. The hard-working non-State-owned company management don't get a break.


    (I didn't mean to make that phone number into a link. The site just does that - seen it before.)

  202. @Ron Unz
    NYC => Northern Italy

    https://youtu.be/MKzLW5eWqo4

    Replies: @AnotherGuessModel, @Hibernian, @peterike

    I like how the doctor in that video says “This is America. This is a first world country.” Yeah, but this is also Elmhurst, which is a third-world neighborhood.

    I wonder how much of the stress on the ER is frantic, excitable third worlders crashing the emergency room because they coughed a few times.

    • Replies: @epebble
    @peterike

    They are not even tested for Covid, let alone be hospitalized, unless they are very sick. Hospitals are doing aggressive utilization review with PPE's and tests. NYS is being creative with sharing ventilators, converting anesthesia machines to ventilators and some have even suggested taking veterinary equipment. Henry Ford health plan in Michigan is planning triage for ICU utilization.

  203. @Ron Unz
    @education realist


    Like many here, I completely disagree with Steve on this and have found it interesting how the skeptic community has broken up over this. Steve. JayMan, Claire Lehmann seem to think it’s fine to bankrupt the economy in the name of “Just One Less Death”, whereas Philippe, Ben SixSmith and others were worried at first but now worry we’ve overreacted.... And I’ve literally blocked Jay, he’s so obnoxious.
     
    Well, I'm vaguely familiar with Claire Lehmann, who's the editor of Quillette. But I don't spend my time on Twitter, so I don't have a clue who "Philippe" is. And what in the world is a "Ben SixSmith"?

    Offhand, it sounds like the divide may be between individuals who can do math and individuals who can't. For example, here's a graph someone just provided of the current exponential death-curve for New York:

    https://i.ibb.co/b610g3M/Graph0.png

    https://www.unz.com/runz/correctly-estimating-coronavirus-infections/#comment-3797732

    Replies: @education realist, @Kratoklastes, @Brás Cubas, @John Burns, Gettysburg Partisan, @Intelligent Dasein, @ThreeCranes, @keypusher

    Deaths stand to epidemiology as murders stand to crime. They would seem to be the gold standard since they can’t be faked.

    Again I make the simple observation that hospital admission curves rise in tandem with deaths . This indicates that there is a reasonable connection. (Incidence = some multiple, say, 10x of death + instantaneous value on death curve.)

    This is powerful evidence that these statistics represent something real. The alternative belief is that there is a systematic error skewing the statistics reported by every nation in the world. And this is just not likely. They can’t all be making the same mistake in diagnosis of death.

  204. very good video:

    the expert in the video, Scott Atlas, says the population has to develop a herd immunity to the virus. Which large scale isolation inhibits.

  205. Anonymous[337] • Disclaimer says:
    @R.G. Camara
    @Coemgen

    Pence is one of those sober, somber, boring Washington-speakers that Trump cannot be. This was precisely the sort of situation Trump needed him for; while Trump projects excitement onto people (for good or for ill), Pence projects calm stoic boringness and yet also a well-informed manner, while Trump largely seems to be improv.

    Trump got Pence for the gravitas needed for bad situations where Trump's excitement might be a hindrance. In a crisis, you want a boring, low-key guy as one of the public faces, because everyone calms down.

    Replies: @Dave Pinsen, @Anonymous, @Unladen Swallow, @Twodees Partain

    Almost presidential tone.

  206. @Lugash
    @Achmed E. Newman

    Here's a story of Chinese nationals(?) taking private jets home. Including a high school student in Wisconsin whose Dad was offering her 20K to stay in America:

    https://nypost.com/2020/03/25/chinese-students-pay-20k-for-private-jet-flights-out-of-us-as-coronavirus-spreads/

    Replies: @Achmed E. Newman

    Thank you, Lugash. I just read it. Yeah, that’d be some bad luck, getting out of China after the flu spread during Spring Festival, arriving back at the university town to hang out with your Chinese friends and colleagues, and then… the infotainment panic-fest! Be really careful which plane you get on, people. If the tail number is something like 444CV, then stay on the freaking ground, for cryin’ out loud.

    Unlike Americans who don’t take the number 13 seriously anymore (go look at aircraft gates and seating, next time you can) and for which lucky-7 is just for fun at Lost Wages, the Chinese are still pretty hard-core with their superstitions. There is a taxi company that heavily serves the Charlotte, N. Carolina airport with the phone number (704) 444-4444. I’ve never seen a Chinaman get into one of those taxis (of course, I don’t really pay attention, so …)

    Yes, though, there are some real richies now from China. I would say “good on ’em”, but from my insider info., most of the really rich kids have Dads who are corrupt CCP officials. The hard-working non-State-owned company management don’t get a break.

    (I didn’t mean to make that phone number into a link. The site just does that – seen it before.)

  207. anonymous[209] • Disclaimer says:

    The Power of Positive Thinking is real and it’s spectacular.

    That’s what I been tryin’ to tell all you people for years! But you didn’t listen to me!

    Nope!

    You all just called me a craaaazy old man! Yessir! That’s what you called me!

    Just a craaaazy old man!

    Look out! Keep the kids away from the craaaaazy old man!
    Careful, honey! Don’t stare at the CRAAAAZY OLD MAN!

    Well, who’s crazy now? WHO’S CRAZY NOW?! What’s that? Can
    you talk louder? I can’t hear so good! Cause I’m a craaazy old man!!

    Eeee hee hee! Hee hee hee! EEEEEEE hee hee hee hee heeeeeee!!!!

  208. @Jonathan Mason

    Either way, some governors (Tate Reeves in Mississippi, Ron DeSantis in Florida) appear to be taking their cues from Trump.
     
    I don't know about that. I think governor DeSantis is his own man and is making decisions based on the peculiar nature of Florida's population, population distribution, geography, climate, and so on.

    Two days ago he sent a letter requesting that Trump declare a Major Emergency in Florida so as to activate FEMA relief.

    https://miami.cbslocal.com/wp-content/uploads/sites/15909786/2020/03/desantis-covid19-declaration.pdf

    DeSantis also issued an executive order Monday requiring anyone arriving on a flight from the New York City area to self-quarantine for two weeks. It is not clear what he is doing about cars with New York plates arriving on I-95. Surely a state of emergency trumps stuff like the interstate commerce clause?

    Trump has not been slow to declare states of emergency before, for example in the southern border states of the US when it was believed that the US was losing effective control of territory due to incursions from Mexicans and central Americans.

    Replies: @Jonathan Mason, @Pericles

    So far no county in Florida has exceeded 4 deaths. Miami-Dade has 640 cases and still no deaths.

    All the counties with the highest number of deaths in Florida are where the big hospitals are, places like Orlando, Orange Park, Gainesville, Fort Lauderdale. Many counties have zero deaths.

    Stay away from hospitals!

    • Replies: @Thomas
    @Jonathan Mason

    New York had zero deaths 2 weeks ago.

    Replies: @Jonathan Mason

  209. @Kratoklastes
    @anonguy


    LIke the Daily Mail articles popping up now about “fit and healthy” people with no comorbidities dyijng in their 30s/40s but you look at the pics and the individual is clearly quite overweight.
     
    It's painful to watch TPTWTCTB (The Powers That Want To Continue To Be), parading any victim that can be passed off as 'just like you the viewer'.

    It's reminiscent of the "heterosexuals can get AIDS" shit from the 80s.

    I've previously confessed that I never saw the Oprah episode in which she claimed that "20% of heterosexual Americans would die of AIDS in the next three years"... but as a 20-something I was still (vaguely) aware of flimsy amateur-theatrics trying to convince non-pillowbiters that they would get AIDS.

    The "Look at this normal looking 30-something guy who died of covid19" bullshit will convince mostly women (a lot of whom are not up to the rigours of 8th grade mathematics, and could not process the difference between anecdotes and data if you threatened to kill their children).

    That's the target market: people who don't understand statistics, probability and so forth.

    If a supermodel-looking 20-something chicksie ever dies of covid19, the orgasms in the DailyMail 'SheMail' magazine editorial staff would be heard halfway round the world.

    If a proper famous (TOWIE, MAFS, Geordie Shore or Kardashian) ever got it, the editorial staff would cum themselves to death immediately.

    Replies: @anonguy, @AnotherDad

    It’s reminiscent of the “heterosexuals can get AIDS” shit from the 80s.

    Ah, that media shit show. Full court press of lies to try and con everyone that this wasn’t essentially the male homosexual anonymous bathhouse anal orgy disease which it clearly was.

    We were told serial and often simultaneously:
    — nothing wrong with homosexual behavior
    — couldn’t do normal VD partner tracking as that was “stigmatizing”
    — closing gay bathhouses was discrimination
    — homosexuals were no different than heterosexuals, just a matter of “who you loved”
    — everyone was equally at risk
    — AIDS was going to explode … millions of Americans would die
    — everyone needed to wear a condom and practice safe sex
    — AIDS was the greatest crisis of our time and need to have all the medical research funding–forget about trivial stuff like, oh, cancer
    — AIDS was exploding in Africa and would kill hundreds of millions and depopulate Africa
    — AIDS was the #1 problem in the world

    I was physics grad student–viruses, epidemiology not my bailiwick–and it was obvious that this was absolute nonsense. Absolute nonsense. It was obvious that this was driven by the unnatural acts of homosexuals and their extreme promiscuity in their unnatural acts, and that there would be no explosion of AIDS in the normal community. And i told everyone that.

    Then they ginned up the whole African AIDS thing–i guess to tap the black victim trope–and for a while managed to get a ridiculous number of “AIDS” deaths in Africa. Everything from dying of malnutrition to being eaten by a crocodile was from “AIDS”.

    Furthermore a venereal disease–unlike a respiratory illness–simply can not be a threat to civilization. Even if it is devastatingly lethal, all that’s required to stop it is … stopping promiscuity! It actually supports, encourages the restrained sexual behavior that undergirds civilization.

    The whole thing was the Jewish minoritization of homosexuals. Minority–good, virtuous; majority–bad, bigoted. Minority bad behavior leading to the majority’s disfavor or hostility … really means the majority are bigots (racists! anti-Semites, Islamophobes, xenophobes, homophobes … ) and the minority are heroes. You piss off normal people–ergo you are good, they are bad. Such compelling “logic”!

    And … it worked! Dissolute homos and their wildly promiscuous anal intercourse generated a nasty disease … and the result was gay liberation, faggification of everything and homosexual marriage.

    I guess that’s a clear warning to people like me. This crisis is obviously generated by globalization, open borders and cavalier establishment behavior–unpreparedness–for the obvious consequences.

    So i guess i should expect to quickly learn that it actually was caused by xenophobia and we need open borders, more international collaboration and everyone should try bat soup.

    • Agree: Testing12
  210. @JimDandy
    @Dano

    Ok, not looking for an argument here. I'm looking for clarification. The people calling this an enormous over reaction/hoax point to death rates. But are ICUs not actually being overwhelmed, in ways that haven't happened in previous regular ol' flu seasons? Are those all crisis actors? Is the overwhelming of the ICUs not an enormous problem for many reasons, not the least of which being the fact that people without the virus who need the ICU will die when in any other year the would have lived?

    What am I missing here? And, again, I accept the fact that I might be missing something.

    Replies: @RichardTaylor, @Spud Boy, @Thatgirl

    Absent a map of every hospital / ICU in the United States, with an accompanying chart showing its current status in terms of available beds, ICU beds, ventilators, medications for treatment, etc, how do we know what the hell to believe?

    I don’t accept Twitter photos as evidence of anything.
    .
    .

  211. @anonguy
    @Kronos

    Nothing in your comment is inconsistent with anything in mine, so it is unclear why you clicked the disagree button.

    Replies: @Kronos

    To my (public) knowledge Trump hasn’t suffered any strokes and any fatigue is likely work related. Biden appears to be a much more likely candidate for mini stroke cognitive decline. The media/Democratic complex is always searching for any medical rational for removing Trump from the Presidency while many comments from Biden would give anyone pause. True, both are at an age when such medical occurrences are high but I don’t see it. Of course, the slip ups from Biden and Sanders could be attributed to campaign fatigue and insomnia as well.

    https://www.newsweek.com/discussing-coronavirus-response-sanders-accidentally-calls-it-ebola-biden-accidentally-calls-it-1492425

    • Replies: @anonguy
    @Kronos

    Thank you for clarifying your point of disagreement.

    I'm not 100% asserting specifically strokes, just presenting that as a possibility.

    However, it seems we both agree that his presentation has degraded, for whatever the underlying causes.

    Which is the matter of more immediate practical importance, IMO.

  212. Somewhat OT: This a Falun Gong drama about life under the Chinese COVID-19 martial rule. Language is Mandarin but it has good English subtitles:

  213. @anon
    Here is an insightful 2016 book review of Trump’s 1988 memoir Trump: The Art of the Deal by Scott Alexander,

    That's when he was pitching for the KC Royals, right? Pretty cool he had time to read Trump's book and write a review.

    Replies: @njguy73, @MEH 0910


    [MORE]

  214. @Father O'Hara
    @Kronos

    Race denialists' tears?

    Replies: @Kronos

    Ok, one Stephen Jay Gould lemon eye-twister martini coming right up…

  215. @Thomas
    @Dave Pinsen

    Check back in a few weeks, see what the current situation is on the outbreak and how his approval is then. Events are developing quickly and the trend with this crisis is we find out what the underlying situation actually is 2-3 weeks later.


    I’m not sure what critics want Trump to do that he hasn’t done yet. Ideally, he would have called for a shutdown earlier, but I’m not sure it would have been politically possible for him (remember, he was still in an impeachment trial going into February), and, in any case, governors seem to have the authority for these shutdowns.
     
    Trump hasn't called for a shutdown at all, just the 15 days of social distancing measures. Yes, governors are the ones who order shutdowns. I'm not 100% convinced that the President couldn't order a shutdown/quarantine though legally. Either way, some governors (Tate Reeves in Mississippi, Ron DeSantis in Florida) appear to be taking their cues from Trump. More problematic: his consistent mixed messaging and minimization of the situation ("look how many people the flu kills!" "We can't let the cure be worse than the disease!") is being followed, I'm afraid, by people who've gotten too used to listening to him and discarding any contradictory information. In this crisis, that could have deadly consequences. Beyond that, there's the passive, incoherent direction of federal policy, under which his Administration is refusing to take the lead and coordinate a response.

    The real screw-ups have been at the FDA and the CDC, preventing the rapid manufacture of new masks and screwing up the test production. How much power does Trump, or any POTUS, have over the career civil servants in those agencies?
     
    The President ultimately is the Executive Branch, under the Constitution. He appoints the people who are supposed to head those agencies. (Though in Trump's case, that's more a matter of him not having appointed them, or having continually replaced those people.) "The buck stops here," as Harry Truman said. Ultimately, he will be the one whose handling of this crisis the voters will pass judgment on, so kicking blame downstairs probably won't fly. What powers Trump does have, for example, using the Defense Production Act to manufacture masks or other needed equipment, he's not using, apparently for ideological reasons. (Heck of a time for him to become a Koch/Cato libertarian.) Even conservatives should recognize that this is a time for the "watchman state" to act.

    Replies: @Jack D

    Events are developing quickly and the trend with this crisis is we find out what the underlying situation actually is 2-3 weeks later.

    This part of your comment I agree with – read any news story from 2 or 3 weeks ago and it’s as if the story is coming from another planet. And 2 or 3 weeks from now, today’s news stories will be equally clueless (one way or the other). Either the situation will be exponentially worse than today or it will be exponentially better but whatever it is, it won’t be the same.

    Humans are set up to assume that tomorrow is going to be much like today and lack the imagination to conceive of radical changes that occur in a short amount of time. Science fiction writers and sometimes scientists predict these changes all the time and we can understand them on a rational level but we can’t deal with them on an emotional level until they actually happen. There are a million predictions involving novel pathogens causing an epidemic but there are also a million predictions of massive earthquakes, tsunamis, asteroids striking the earth, etc. – you really don’t know which low probability events to prepare for and you can’t prepare for them all.

    If you went to pour your coffee tomorrow and suddenly the coffee poured up instead of down, you’d be really shocked and at a loss as what to do. And then if you figured it out and suddenly the coffee switched to pouring down again, you’d be at a temporary loss again. But humans are pretty smart and once we recover our equilibrium we figure it all out eventually. It just takes a little time.

    “The buck stops here”

    This is a pithy saying but it has absolutely nothing to do with reality. The reality (as many Presidents have found out) is that we have a large Permanent Government bureaucracy which is like a giant ship. The President is the helmsman and he can call down to the boiler room and ask for more steam or he can turn the wheel but in the short run nothing seems to happen because the ship has such momentum and because changing the captain does nothing to change the crew.

    • Replies: @Thomas
    @Jack D


    This part of your comment I agree with – read any news story from 2 or 3 weeks ago and it’s as if the story is coming from another planet. And 2 or 3 weeks from now, today’s news stories will be equally clueless (one way or the other). Either the situation will be exponentially worse than today or it will be exponentially better but whatever it is, it won’t be the same.
     
    Absent some sort of deus ex machina, I'm struggling to see how the situation will be "exponentially better." It was a week ago that Florida's beaches were still thronged with spring breakers. What interventions are happening now are still very recent, and very uneven, on a national level. And, apparently, our economy can't even bear them for a week without the call to relax them coming from the finance people. Unless you're with the President in believing that "one day, it's like a miracle, it will disappear," bet on exponentially worse.

    There are a million predictions involving novel pathogens causing an epidemic but there are also a million predictions of massive earthquakes, tsunamis, asteroids striking the earth, etc. – you really don’t know which low probability events to prepare for and you can’t prepare for them all.

    If you went to pour your coffee tomorrow and suddenly the coffee poured up instead of down, you’d be really shocked and at a loss as what to do. And then if you figured it out and suddenly the coffee switched to pouring down again, you’d be at a temporary loss again. But humans are pretty smart and once we recover our equilibrium we figure it all out eventually. It just takes a little time.
     
    We're no longer in the realm of airy, abstract, fanciful predictions. An actual viral pandemic is ongoing now, is expanding at an exponential rate, and is killing more and more people every day. The best available evidence appears to indicate it will be killing a thousand people a day in less than a week. I guess we'll know soon enough.

    This is a pithy saying but it has absolutely nothing to do with reality. The reality (as many Presidents have found out) is that we have a large Permanent Government bureaucracy which is like a giant ship. The President is the helmsman and he can call down to the boiler room and ask for more steam or he can turn the wheel but in the short run nothing seems to happen because the ship has such momentum and because changing the captain does nothing to change the crew.
     
    The reality is also that the "captain" is ultimately going to be held responsible either way. In November, the electorate will be deciding whether to give Trump another term, not whether to give the Permanent Government one. If hundreds of thousands of dead bodies can be laid at Trump's feet, that's going to be hard to spin away blaming the Permanent Government.

    One other factor to consider about this crisis is that the costs of addressing it are going up exponentially, just the way the epidemic is expanding. If the CDC and FDA had been on their game last month, this might have been contained without wrecking the economy. Now, the effort that has to be expended and the costs thereof are all that much greater. They're likely to be even greater in the future.

    Replies: @Jack D

  216. @Jonathan Mason
    @Jonathan Mason

    So far no county in Florida has exceeded 4 deaths. Miami-Dade has 640 cases and still no deaths.

    All the counties with the highest number of deaths in Florida are where the big hospitals are, places like Orlando, Orange Park, Gainesville, Fort Lauderdale. Many counties have zero deaths.

    Stay away from hospitals!

    Replies: @Thomas

    New York had zero deaths 2 weeks ago.

    • Replies: @Jonathan Mason
    @Thomas

    The Florida corona virus dashboard has been out of service all day today (8:00 am to 2:00 pm). Hopefully this is not because it was suddenly swamped with reports of new infections and deaths.

    It is possible that the hotter weather in Florida is preventing the virus from spreading outdoors. At least I hope so.

    This virus seems to have an affinity for ski resorts, so perhaps it spreads itself more actively in cold weather and at altitude.

    Here in North Florida the expected daily high for the next 4 days is 95 or higher, then it drops to 91. New York only has one day with a high over 60 predicted for the next week. London still has some days with highs in the 40's and is expected to go close to zero on a couple of nights.

  217. @Peter Akuleyev
    @education realist

    The UK tried the Education Realist approach for about a week. Things started spiraling out of control so quickly the government panicked and went to full lockdown. However, Sweden is still on the business as usual within limits plan, let’s see how that goes.

    The US missed the chance to be Taiwan about 6 weeks ago, around the time Trump was still referring to the Corona Virus as a hoax.

    Replies: @Mr McKenna, @MEH 0910, @education realist

  218. @Thomas
    @Ron Unz


    Santa Clara county officials now say they expect 2,000 deaths by July, ONE HUNDRED TIMES the current number of fatalities.
     
    Based on the population of Santa Clara County, extrapolated to the rest of the United States, that would suggest a little over 300,000 dead nationwide. Compared to the 30,000 dead the "just the flu, just the flu!" parrots keep mouthing, that tracks with this being about 10 times more lethal.

    The University of Washington School of Medicine (USNWR national ranks: #13 in research, #2 in primary care) is predicting 81,000 U.S. deaths by July 1. If you look at their model, it matches the daily death toll so far. And that's with what we're doing now.

    https://www.seattletimes.com/seattle-news/health/uw-model-says-social-distancing-is-starting-to-work-but-still-projects-1400-coronavirus-deaths-in-the-state/

    https://covid19.healthdata.org/projections

    Replies: @Ron Unz, @AnotherDad, @Jack D, @Boethiuss, @Thatgirl

    Based on the population of Santa Clara County, extrapolated to the rest of the United States, that would suggest a little over 300,000 dead nationwide. Compared to the 30,000 dead the “just the flu, just the flu!” parrots keep mouthing, that tracks with this being about 10 times more lethal.

    Exactly!! Santa Clara county led the nation in having the first total lock-down, implemented about 10 days ago. Plus the low-density suburban living very likely reduces transmission, as well as the generally affluent, well-educated population, who can and will take reasonable precautions.

    So if the rest of America had gone into the same total lock-down 10 days ago, the entire country might have escaped with only 500,000 to 1M dead (reflecting the much higher intrinsic risk factors).

    But instead time was lost and continues to be lost. If you assume a doubling-period of 3 days, waiting just a single extra week raises the number of infections by roughly a factor of 5x, greatly increasing the likelihood that the local health care system will collapse, which in turn raises the death rate by another factor of 5x. An exponential process is very much determined by early steps.

    Anyway, let’s just say I’m *very* happy I live in Santa Clara county rather than NYC…

    • Replies: @Faraday's Bobcat
    @Ron Unz

    It may not be a coincidence that the County Executive of Santa Clara County is a doc. Nice guy, my wife used to work for him. No idea how he got into politics.

  219. @JimDandy
    @Dano

    Ok, not looking for an argument here. I'm looking for clarification. The people calling this an enormous over reaction/hoax point to death rates. But are ICUs not actually being overwhelmed, in ways that haven't happened in previous regular ol' flu seasons? Are those all crisis actors? Is the overwhelming of the ICUs not an enormous problem for many reasons, not the least of which being the fact that people without the virus who need the ICU will die when in any other year the would have lived?

    What am I missing here? And, again, I accept the fact that I might be missing something.

    Replies: @RichardTaylor, @Spud Boy, @Thatgirl

    But are ICUs not actually being overwhelmed, in ways that haven’t happened in previous regular ol’ flu seasons? Are those all crisis actors? Is the overwhelming of the ICUs not an enormous problem for many reasons, not the least of which being the fact that people without the virus who need the ICU will die when in any other year the would have lived?

    What am I missing here?

    I have wondered too a great deal about this particular point.

    Like everyone else I can only speculate but I believe it is in part the panic itself that is driving the overwhelming of the hospitals.

    Last year, 80,000 Americans died of the flu but almost none of those people died in the hospital. Instead, they died in nursing homes or in their own beds. Now, because of the panic, their frightened families and caregivers are taking them to the hospital. This is what has overwhelmed the hospitals, not necessarily an increase in the numbers of sick people (although that has also occurred) but just the numbers going to the hospital.

    • Replies: @JimDandy
    @Thatgirl

    Yeah, I've said all along that this was legitimate news if 100,000 or more Americans end up dying . I think your theory makes some sense, but... is that what happened in China? And Italy?

  220. @Harry Baldwin
    @Boethiuss

    In an extreme case with particular relevance, consider the cruise ship business.

    Cruise ships shouldn't even be on our radar when it comes to saving businesses. They aren't owned by American companies, don't pay American taxes, and don't employ many Americans.

    Replies: @wren, @Boethiuss, @The Wild Geese Howard, @Daniel Chieh

    Of all bailouts, cruise ships were the most mystifying to me.

  221. Exaggeration of every kind is as essential to journalism as it is to the dramatic art; for the object of journalism is to make events go as far as possible. Thus it is that all journalists are, in the very nature of their calling, alarmists; and this is their way of giving interest to what they write. Herein they are like little dogs: if anything stirs, they immediately set up a shrill bark.

    Therefore, let us carefully regulate the attention to be paid to this trumpet of danger, so that it may not disturb our digestion. Let us recognize that a newspaper is at best but a magnifying glass, and very often merely a shadow on the wall.

    Arthur Schopenhauer, “On Some Forms of Literature.”

  222. @Thomas
    @Ron Unz


    Santa Clara county officials now say they expect 2,000 deaths by July, ONE HUNDRED TIMES the current number of fatalities.
     
    Based on the population of Santa Clara County, extrapolated to the rest of the United States, that would suggest a little over 300,000 dead nationwide. Compared to the 30,000 dead the "just the flu, just the flu!" parrots keep mouthing, that tracks with this being about 10 times more lethal.

    The University of Washington School of Medicine (USNWR national ranks: #13 in research, #2 in primary care) is predicting 81,000 U.S. deaths by July 1. If you look at their model, it matches the daily death toll so far. And that's with what we're doing now.

    https://www.seattletimes.com/seattle-news/health/uw-model-says-social-distancing-is-starting-to-work-but-still-projects-1400-coronavirus-deaths-in-the-state/

    https://covid19.healthdata.org/projections

    Replies: @Ron Unz, @AnotherDad, @Jack D, @Boethiuss, @Thatgirl

    The University of Washington School of Medicine (USNWR national ranks: #13 in research, #2 in primary care) is predicting 81,000 U.S. deaths by July 1. If you look at their model, it matches the daily death toll so far. And that’s with what we’re doing now.

    Yes, and 80,000 deaths is a big yawn… unless one of them is someone i care about.

    The “it’s just the flu” folks are wrong. But the Chicken Littles are wrong too. The credible numbers suggest it’s just a super-flu–similar contagion, 10-50x as lethal but skewing even more strongly to the elderly.

    The only place we have numerator and denominator is the Diamond Princess.
    — 3700 on board
    — 712 testing positive for Chinese virus
    — 331 asymptomatic!
    — ~70 hospitalized
    — 9 or 10 dead all elderly
    1.4% death rate in a very elderly skewing population with–after some incompetence and delay–medical care available. Which works out to something like a .2% death rate for the whole US population. All other counts of “cases” come with huge selection bias. We aren’t testing everyone and are not going to. Seemingly half the people do not even see any symptoms. Most of the rest they will be indistinguishable from ordinary cold, flu.

    Coming up with a “thousands dead” death count is not impressive. People die. Near 3 million Americans die every year. 30-60,000 of those are estimated to be from the flu in a typical year. Again mostly a culling of those who are elderly or in poor health. You gotta die of something!

    This could increase the “flu cull” by 10x and you’d have say a couple hundred thousand dead. You’d have US deaths rocket from 2.7 million last year to … 2.9 million! Almost all the excess either elderly or in poor health. Deaths in general just moved forward a few years.

    Perspective.

    • Replies: @Thomas
    @AnotherDad

    You acknowledge that it's an unrepresentative population. And you note that medical care was available, even if delayed. Obviously, the biggest concern from the beginning with this crisis is that the medical system will be overwhelmed.

    With this much attention on this pandemic, sweeping it away as just a "bump in the flu cull" isn't going to happen. Nobody is going to accept Stalin's "a million is a statistic" line.

  223. OT: Boomer era musician trying to be relevant. Bob Dylan releases 17-minute song about the JFK assassination.

    https://variety.com/2020/music/news/bob-dylan-releases-17-minute-song-jfk-kennedy-assassination-murder-most-foul-1203546713/

    I can see why young people are unimpressed by Dylan and his ilk. JFK’s death was hot news 57 years ago.

    • Replies: @ScarletNumber
    @Anon


    I can see why young people are unimpressed by Dylan and his ilk.
     
    Dylan is a much better song writer than performer. It took Jimi Hendrix to turn his lyrics into a classic, for instance.

    I didn't know what Hurricane was about until the movie came out, and the guy from was New Jersey! The song was from 1975 while the movie was from 1999.
  224. @Jack D
    @Thomas


    Events are developing quickly and the trend with this crisis is we find out what the underlying situation actually is 2-3 weeks later.
     
    This part of your comment I agree with - read any news story from 2 or 3 weeks ago and it's as if the story is coming from another planet. And 2 or 3 weeks from now, today's news stories will be equally clueless (one way or the other). Either the situation will be exponentially worse than today or it will be exponentially better but whatever it is, it won't be the same.

    Humans are set up to assume that tomorrow is going to be much like today and lack the imagination to conceive of radical changes that occur in a short amount of time. Science fiction writers and sometimes scientists predict these changes all the time and we can understand them on a rational level but we can't deal with them on an emotional level until they actually happen. There are a million predictions involving novel pathogens causing an epidemic but there are also a million predictions of massive earthquakes, tsunamis, asteroids striking the earth, etc. - you really don't know which low probability events to prepare for and you can't prepare for them all.

    If you went to pour your coffee tomorrow and suddenly the coffee poured up instead of down, you'd be really shocked and at a loss as what to do. And then if you figured it out and suddenly the coffee switched to pouring down again, you'd be at a temporary loss again. But humans are pretty smart and once we recover our equilibrium we figure it all out eventually. It just takes a little time.

    “The buck stops here”
     
    This is a pithy saying but it has absolutely nothing to do with reality. The reality (as many Presidents have found out) is that we have a large Permanent Government bureaucracy which is like a giant ship. The President is the helmsman and he can call down to the boiler room and ask for more steam or he can turn the wheel but in the short run nothing seems to happen because the ship has such momentum and because changing the captain does nothing to change the crew.

    Replies: @Thomas

    This part of your comment I agree with – read any news story from 2 or 3 weeks ago and it’s as if the story is coming from another planet. And 2 or 3 weeks from now, today’s news stories will be equally clueless (one way or the other). Either the situation will be exponentially worse than today or it will be exponentially better but whatever it is, it won’t be the same.

    Absent some sort of deus ex machina, I’m struggling to see how the situation will be “exponentially better.” It was a week ago that Florida’s beaches were still thronged with spring breakers. What interventions are happening now are still very recent, and very uneven, on a national level. And, apparently, our economy can’t even bear them for a week without the call to relax them coming from the finance people. Unless you’re with the President in believing that “one day, it’s like a miracle, it will disappear,” bet on exponentially worse.

    There are a million predictions involving novel pathogens causing an epidemic but there are also a million predictions of massive earthquakes, tsunamis, asteroids striking the earth, etc. – you really don’t know which low probability events to prepare for and you can’t prepare for them all.

    If you went to pour your coffee tomorrow and suddenly the coffee poured up instead of down, you’d be really shocked and at a loss as what to do. And then if you figured it out and suddenly the coffee switched to pouring down again, you’d be at a temporary loss again. But humans are pretty smart and once we recover our equilibrium we figure it all out eventually. It just takes a little time.

    We’re no longer in the realm of airy, abstract, fanciful predictions. An actual viral pandemic is ongoing now, is expanding at an exponential rate, and is killing more and more people every day. The best available evidence appears to indicate it will be killing a thousand people a day in less than a week. I guess we’ll know soon enough.

    This is a pithy saying but it has absolutely nothing to do with reality. The reality (as many Presidents have found out) is that we have a large Permanent Government bureaucracy which is like a giant ship. The President is the helmsman and he can call down to the boiler room and ask for more steam or he can turn the wheel but in the short run nothing seems to happen because the ship has such momentum and because changing the captain does nothing to change the crew.

    The reality is also that the “captain” is ultimately going to be held responsible either way. In November, the electorate will be deciding whether to give Trump another term, not whether to give the Permanent Government one. If hundreds of thousands of dead bodies can be laid at Trump’s feet, that’s going to be hard to spin away blaming the Permanent Government.

    One other factor to consider about this crisis is that the costs of addressing it are going up exponentially, just the way the epidemic is expanding. If the CDC and FDA had been on their game last month, this might have been contained without wrecking the economy. Now, the effort that has to be expended and the costs thereof are all that much greater. They’re likely to be even greater in the future.

    • Agree: Corvinus
    • Replies: @Jack D
    @Thomas


    If hundreds of thousands of dead bodies can be laid at Trump’s feet, that’s going to be hard to spin away blaming the Permanent Government.
     
    Wow, it's almost as if some people were wishing for lots of dead so that Trump could be blamed. Sleepy Joe alone didn't look like he was up to the job, but maybe Sleepy Joe with Corona-chan as his running mate (he said he was going to pick a female running mate and Corona-chan is Asian to boot!) can do it?
  225. Diversity is our strength. After a few more years of this, we’ll all be terribly strong about something.
    https://www.breitbart.com/europe/2020/03/27/migrant-attacks-italian-baker-told-wait-outside/
    tldr the “refugees” are reacting to social distance orders with physical violence and screaming about “racism.”

    • Replies: @J.Ross
    @J.Ross

    Follow up to this: a French administrator says there is no governmental ability to enforce quarantine on "refugees" and that the government should not even try.
    (Sure would be nice if we have some kind of boundaries going around the whole country, in that case.)
    https://summit.news/2020/03/27/french-official-says-quarantine-should-not-be-enforced-in-migrant-areas-to-avoid-riots/

  226. @Steve Sailer
    @Achmed E. Newman

    Sounds a little like the career of Sergei Korolev (1906-1966), the top Soviet rocket scientist who got the first man into space. He was sent off to the Gulag from 1938-1944, then called back.

    A hero.

    https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Sergei_Korolev

    Replies: @J.Ross

    Was this comment pre-coffee?

  227. @Thomas
    @Ron Unz


    Santa Clara county officials now say they expect 2,000 deaths by July, ONE HUNDRED TIMES the current number of fatalities.
     
    Based on the population of Santa Clara County, extrapolated to the rest of the United States, that would suggest a little over 300,000 dead nationwide. Compared to the 30,000 dead the "just the flu, just the flu!" parrots keep mouthing, that tracks with this being about 10 times more lethal.

    The University of Washington School of Medicine (USNWR national ranks: #13 in research, #2 in primary care) is predicting 81,000 U.S. deaths by July 1. If you look at their model, it matches the daily death toll so far. And that's with what we're doing now.

    https://www.seattletimes.com/seattle-news/health/uw-model-says-social-distancing-is-starting-to-work-but-still-projects-1400-coronavirus-deaths-in-the-state/

    https://covid19.healthdata.org/projections

    Replies: @Ron Unz, @AnotherDad, @Jack D, @Boethiuss, @Thatgirl

    To put this in perspective, in a normal year the US registers around 2,800,000+ deaths (including around 35,000 flu deaths). So an additional 80,000 deaths is 3% excess mortality. And much of that mortality will be made up later, as the 80,000 who die now would mostly (not all, but mostly) have died in the next 3 to 5 years anyway. This doesn’t sound like the Apocalypse to me. We have had epidemics before but never before have we shut down the world economy for them. What has changed?

    • Replies: @anon
    @Jack D

    What changed is that this disease clogs up and overwhelms hospitals. The fact it isn't exceptionally lethal means that people are filling ICU beds and staying. We have 2.8 hospital beds per 1,000. And a fraction of an ICU bed per 1,000. And it isn't spread evenly across national resources.

    So it is concentrated and public. Sorry to say, but it is inherently dramatic. It drove the Red Chinese to shut their economy down for less than 3,000 deaths. Less than 2 per million.

    I can't explain exactly why it plays out this way. Just that it isn't the death toll per se. Until the front line medical chaos ends, this will play out as a crisis.

    Replies: @Jack D

    , @epebble
    @Jack D

    Evidence seems to be showing that significant fraction of non-elders ( < 60) are passing too. While one may be philosophical about the inevitability of the end etc., for elders, even 1% of, say, 100,000 non-elders can cause quite a social pandemonium. The news of many health care workers falling suggests this is a pretty aggressive virus. More interestingly, the chest X-ray of many non-Covid patients who are showing up for other causes shows Covid like lung scarring. This proves, at least anecdotally, that Covid can be extensively asymptomatic. If 40% of the population is Covid Charlies, it is going to be dancing around for a long time, like common cold or flu, only more deadly.

    Replies: @Jack D

    , @Thomas
    @Jack D

    That's 80,000 just by July 1st, so over the next 13 weeks. And that's assuming we maintain the current measures that the moneychangers say is wrecking the economy.

    , @James N. Kennett
    @Jack D


    This doesn’t sound like the Apocalypse to me. We have had epidemics before but never before have we shut down the world economy for them. What has changed?
     
    If nothing were done, and the epidemic were allowed to run its course, there could be two million additional deaths in the USA, mainly of people with pre-existing health conditions whose life expectancy was short anyway. The annual death rate would be almost doubled. 150 years ago, when most people died at home, we would have shrugged our shoulders and thought we had had a bad flu epidemic.

    The lockdown will save most of those lives, but at a cost of millions of dollars each. Our grandchildren will still be paying back that debt long after we are all dead.

    A far less expensive way to save lives would be to let the vulnerable self-isolate, with help from a paid task force, while anybody who does not wish to endure this privation could take their chances and continue with life as usual.

    The argument against this approach is that the lockdown is not only trying to save lives, but to eradicate Covid-19. If the virus is not eradicated, we do not yet know whether it would become endemic in the population, with mutated strains causing regular epidemics like the one we are having now.

    When deciding whether to continue with very expensive attempts at eradication, it is vital to know whether it is actually feasible.

    We can get clues from looking at countries where the epidemic began earlier than in the US. It is not helpful that China has banned foreigners from entering the country. The WHO and CDC are already in China but are unlikely to contradict the Chinese in public, because they would risk expulsion; however they may be giving private advice to the US government. Taiwan, South Korea, Japan and Italy are all worth watching closely.

  228. @Thomas
    @Jack D


    This part of your comment I agree with – read any news story from 2 or 3 weeks ago and it’s as if the story is coming from another planet. And 2 or 3 weeks from now, today’s news stories will be equally clueless (one way or the other). Either the situation will be exponentially worse than today or it will be exponentially better but whatever it is, it won’t be the same.
     
    Absent some sort of deus ex machina, I'm struggling to see how the situation will be "exponentially better." It was a week ago that Florida's beaches were still thronged with spring breakers. What interventions are happening now are still very recent, and very uneven, on a national level. And, apparently, our economy can't even bear them for a week without the call to relax them coming from the finance people. Unless you're with the President in believing that "one day, it's like a miracle, it will disappear," bet on exponentially worse.

    There are a million predictions involving novel pathogens causing an epidemic but there are also a million predictions of massive earthquakes, tsunamis, asteroids striking the earth, etc. – you really don’t know which low probability events to prepare for and you can’t prepare for them all.

    If you went to pour your coffee tomorrow and suddenly the coffee poured up instead of down, you’d be really shocked and at a loss as what to do. And then if you figured it out and suddenly the coffee switched to pouring down again, you’d be at a temporary loss again. But humans are pretty smart and once we recover our equilibrium we figure it all out eventually. It just takes a little time.
     
    We're no longer in the realm of airy, abstract, fanciful predictions. An actual viral pandemic is ongoing now, is expanding at an exponential rate, and is killing more and more people every day. The best available evidence appears to indicate it will be killing a thousand people a day in less than a week. I guess we'll know soon enough.

    This is a pithy saying but it has absolutely nothing to do with reality. The reality (as many Presidents have found out) is that we have a large Permanent Government bureaucracy which is like a giant ship. The President is the helmsman and he can call down to the boiler room and ask for more steam or he can turn the wheel but in the short run nothing seems to happen because the ship has such momentum and because changing the captain does nothing to change the crew.
     
    The reality is also that the "captain" is ultimately going to be held responsible either way. In November, the electorate will be deciding whether to give Trump another term, not whether to give the Permanent Government one. If hundreds of thousands of dead bodies can be laid at Trump's feet, that's going to be hard to spin away blaming the Permanent Government.

    One other factor to consider about this crisis is that the costs of addressing it are going up exponentially, just the way the epidemic is expanding. If the CDC and FDA had been on their game last month, this might have been contained without wrecking the economy. Now, the effort that has to be expended and the costs thereof are all that much greater. They're likely to be even greater in the future.

    Replies: @Jack D

    If hundreds of thousands of dead bodies can be laid at Trump’s feet, that’s going to be hard to spin away blaming the Permanent Government.

    Wow, it’s almost as if some people were wishing for lots of dead so that Trump could be blamed. Sleepy Joe alone didn’t look like he was up to the job, but maybe Sleepy Joe with Corona-chan as his running mate (he said he was going to pick a female running mate and Corona-chan is Asian to boot!) can do it?

  229. @AnotherDad
    @Thomas


    The University of Washington School of Medicine (USNWR national ranks: #13 in research, #2 in primary care) is predicting 81,000 U.S. deaths by July 1. If you look at their model, it matches the daily death toll so far. And that’s with what we’re doing now.
     
    Yes, and 80,000 deaths is a big yawn... unless one of them is someone i care about.

    The "it's just the flu" folks are wrong. But the Chicken Littles are wrong too. The credible numbers suggest it's just a super-flu--similar contagion, 10-50x as lethal but skewing even more strongly to the elderly.

    The only place we have numerator and denominator is the Diamond Princess.
    -- 3700 on board
    -- 712 testing positive for Chinese virus
    -- 331 asymptomatic!
    -- ~70 hospitalized
    -- 9 or 10 dead all elderly
    1.4% death rate in a very elderly skewing population with--after some incompetence and delay--medical care available. Which works out to something like a .2% death rate for the whole US population. All other counts of "cases" come with huge selection bias. We aren't testing everyone and are not going to. Seemingly half the people do not even see any symptoms. Most of the rest they will be indistinguishable from ordinary cold, flu.

    Coming up with a "thousands dead" death count is not impressive. People die. Near 3 million Americans die every year. 30-60,000 of those are estimated to be from the flu in a typical year. Again mostly a culling of those who are elderly or in poor health. You gotta die of something!

    This could increase the "flu cull" by 10x and you'd have say a couple hundred thousand dead. You'd have US deaths rocket from 2.7 million last year to ... 2.9 million! Almost all the excess either elderly or in poor health. Deaths in general just moved forward a few years.

    Perspective.

    Replies: @Thomas

    You acknowledge that it’s an unrepresentative population. And you note that medical care was available, even if delayed. Obviously, the biggest concern from the beginning with this crisis is that the medical system will be overwhelmed.

    With this much attention on this pandemic, sweeping it away as just a “bump in the flu cull” isn’t going to happen. Nobody is going to accept Stalin’s “a million is a statistic” line.

  230. Based on the population of Santa Clara County, extrapolated to the rest of the United States, that would suggest a little over 300,000 dead nationwide. Compared to the 30,000 dead the “just the flu, just the flu!” parrots keep mouthing, that tracks with this being about 10 times more lethal.

    Cut the shit already.

    About a month ago OMB Director/Chief of Staff Mick Mulvaney said that coronavirus was a media hoax exaggerated by the press to get the better of President Trump politically. He was wrong, and that was stupid. We’re not buying that story any more. Now what?

    With all the fcukups and incompetence and missed opportunities and the rest of it, the ultimate consequence of this virus, where millions of lives and trillions of dollars hang in the balance depending on decisions we make starting from now, so let’s make good ones.

    I don’t agree with everything EducationRealist has written in this thread, but he is right to say this “U R stoopid, don’t kno math LOL” business is tedious and a distraction.

    I don’t have a crystal ball any more than anybody else does, but I suspect that what we’re going to find out reasonably soon is that the bad news isn’t as bad as we’ve been told by some, and the good news isn’t as good as we’ve been led to believe by others.

    There will be some quasi-vaccination, some treatment mitigation, some heretofore unknown epidemiological constraint, etc, that will help us dial down the panic a few notches. Even then, that doesn’t mean we can “reopen the economy”, everything will be back to normal and we’ll all have a very merry Christmas.

    Even then, we’ll still have the China Flu around, and it will still be much more lethal, and much more contagious than anything we could have anticipated prior to eight weeks ago. How will we cope with that, where the scale of the problem seems to be significant but not overwhelming? I for one do not expect that everybody is going to return to the restaurants, bars, hotels, airplanes, yoga studios, etc, like nothing happened. Yet somehow, in that world we’re going to have to figure how to preserve our values and our way of life as best as we can.

    What I am thinking of and what I suspect might happen is something like this: starting in the summer or the fall and for the 1-3 years following we enact a dramatic multifaceted group of policy changes that’s quite radical in the the context of our politics over the last forty years, and at the same time very traditionalist in terms of its ends. Specfically, we pump trillions of dollars into the economy to rescue as many individuals and companies (large and small) that are salvageable. The feds borrow as much money as they can from the credit markets. Then, for all Treasury debt borrowed before such and such a date, we stiff the creditors for interest but not principal.

    Then, we (partially) cut Social Security and Medicare, and rack up significant primary surpluses and start paying down the debt. Rezone California and a few other places, ban single family residences of more than 6000 sq ft, ban multiple or foreign ownership or in general a few people controlling lots of real estate that they are not living in. Maybe most important, create new logistics command inside the US Army, to be tasked with being able to manage domestic inventory of crucial supplies, with its own authority to spin up factories and acquire raw materials as necessary, thereby hardening our supply chains.

    Overall, I suspect that we will defeat this crisis on the basis of what we accomplish, not what we avoid. Right now, we’re in a mindset of avoiding the virus, which is probably the correct mindset for the moment. But soon enough that switch is going to flip, and when it does we need to be ready to move. So right now, while we’re all sitting at home, let’s figure out where we’re trying to go.

  231. @Ron Unz
    Well, I'll take the liberty of republishing part of a comment I left on one of the earliest iSteve/Coronavirus posts almost exactly two weeks ago:

    Well, I’ve often pointed out the negative consequences of having a country run by its Ministry of Propaganda.

    For decades, America government and society has become more and more crazy and incompetent, with that reality concealed by our ever more sweeping propaganda. But since the Coronavirus doesn’t pay attention to the MSM, we’ll soon find out the consequences of that strategy.
     
    The biggest problem with the Coronavirus is that you can't deplatform it from Twitter when it does things you don't like...

    Replies: @wren, @trelane, @JimDandy, @Dieter Kief, @John Burns, Gettysburg Partisan, @UK, @Forbes, @dfordoom

    I dunno.

    Woodrow Wilson ran a pretty good propaganda operation during the First World War, so it doesn’t seem such a recent phenomena if you’ve been paying attention.

    A bit like just noticing the media’s fake news–as if that merely started during Trump.

    The observers and commentators on the art of propaganda media, say Marshall McLuhan and Neil Postman, wrote about this “media effect” in the ’50s and ’60s.

    The true negative consequences are more likely the size and scale of government itself, its myriad laws and regulations, its one-size-fits-all policy solutions which conflict with being all things to all people in order to satisfy every special interest constituency, and its dreadnought battleship-like inability to change course with any speed and precision.

    Propaganda is merely to paper-over the reality of these deficiencies. It’s just self-preservation.

  232. @Thomas
    @Ron Unz


    Santa Clara county officials now say they expect 2,000 deaths by July, ONE HUNDRED TIMES the current number of fatalities.
     
    Based on the population of Santa Clara County, extrapolated to the rest of the United States, that would suggest a little over 300,000 dead nationwide. Compared to the 30,000 dead the "just the flu, just the flu!" parrots keep mouthing, that tracks with this being about 10 times more lethal.

    The University of Washington School of Medicine (USNWR national ranks: #13 in research, #2 in primary care) is predicting 81,000 U.S. deaths by July 1. If you look at their model, it matches the daily death toll so far. And that's with what we're doing now.

    https://www.seattletimes.com/seattle-news/health/uw-model-says-social-distancing-is-starting-to-work-but-still-projects-1400-coronavirus-deaths-in-the-state/

    https://covid19.healthdata.org/projections

    Replies: @Ron Unz, @AnotherDad, @Jack D, @Boethiuss, @Thatgirl

    Based on the population of Santa Clara County, extrapolated to the rest of the United States, that would suggest a little over 300,000 dead nationwide. Compared to the 30,000 dead the “just the flu, just the flu!” parrots keep mouthing, that tracks with this being about 10 times more lethal.

    Cut the shit already.

    About a month ago OMB Director/Chief of Staff Mick Mulvaney said that coronavirus was a media hoax exaggerated by the press to get the better of President Trump politically. He was wrong, and that was stupid. We’re not buying that story any more. Now what?

    With all the fcukups and incompetence and missed opportunities and the rest of it, the ultimate consequence of this virus, where millions of lives and trillions of dollars hang in the balance depending on decisions we make starting from now, so let’s make good ones.

    I don’t agree with everything EducationRealist has written in this thread, but he is right to say this “U R stoopid, don’t kno math LOL” business is tedious and a distraction.

    I don’t have a crystal ball any more than anybody else does, but I suspect that what we’re going to find out reasonably soon is that the bad news isn’t as bad as we’ve been told by some, and the good news isn’t as good as we’ve been led to believe by others.

    There will be some quasi-vaccination, some treatment mitigation, some heretofore unknown epidemiological constraint, etc, that will help us dial down the panic a few notches. Even then, that doesn’t mean we can “reopen the economy”, everything will be back to normal and we’ll all have a very merry Christmas.

    Even then, we’ll still have the China Flu around, and it will still be much more lethal, and much more contagious than anything we could have anticipated prior to eight weeks ago. How will we cope with that, where the scale of the problem seems to be significant but not overwhelming? I for one do not expect that everybody is going to return to the restaurants, bars, hotels, airplanes, yoga studios, etc, like nothing happened. Yet somehow, in that world we’re going to have to figure how to preserve our values and our way of life as best as we can.

    What I am thinking of and what I suspect might happen is something like this: starting in the summer or the fall and for the 1-3 years following we enact a dramatic multifaceted group of policy changes that’s quite radical in the the context of our politics over the last forty years, and at the same time very traditionalist in terms of its ends. Specfically, we pump trillions of dollars into the economy to rescue as many individuals and companies (large and small) that are salvageable. The feds borrow as much money as they can from the credit markets. Then, for all Treasury debt borrowed before such and such a date, we stiff the creditors for interest but not principal.

    Then, we (partially) cut Social Security and Medicare, and rack up significant primary surpluses and start paying down the debt. Rezone California and a few other places, ban single family residences of more than 6000 sq ft, ban multiple or foreign ownership or in general a few people controlling lots of real estate that they are not living in. Maybe most important, create new logistics command inside the US Army, to be tasked with being able to manage domestic inventory of crucial supplies, with its own authority to spin up factories and acquire raw materials as necessary, thereby hardening our supply chains.

    Overall, I suspect that we will defeat this crisis on the basis of what we accomplish, not what we avoid. Right now, we’re in a mindset of avoiding the virus, which is probably the correct mindset for the moment. But soon enough that switch is going to flip, and when it does we need to be ready to move. So right now, while we’re all sitting at home, let’s figure out where we’re trying to go.

  233. @Peter Akuleyev
    @Intelligent Dasein

    Clinton would have at least left competent professional administrators in place, there would have been a pandemia response plan and the CDC and FDA would not be run by bootlickers trying to curry favor with the Leader. Trump decided to destroy the Federal government precisely at the moment we actually needed it for something.

    Replies: @Anonymous, @Pericles, @Jenner Ickham Errican, @res

    competent professional administrators

    Trump decided to destroy the Federal government precisely at the moment we actually needed it for something.

    LOL. The Federal government wasn’t prepared for this before Trump’s presidency, either. It’s too late to prepare for a problem the precise moment it rears its head. At that point, one can only react.

    Except for maybe a few Cassandras, the entire American medical establishment—with reams and reams of framed office credentials—was sleepwalking on this. Suddenly doctors realize hospitals and the public needs millions and millions of masks— Supply chain? Pandemic? What’s that?

    • Agree: Desiderius, Daniel Chieh
  234. Anon[145] • Disclaimer says:
    @Jonathan Mason
    @black sea


    In yesterday’s Daily Mail, they wrote about a “fit and healthy” 47 year old who died alone, but when you see his photographs he looks like a grossly obese 55 year old. Of course, his story was quite sad — he died alone due to self-imposed quarantine — but that doesn’t make him “fit and healthy.”
     
    There is certainly a huge difference between what people with medical training and backgrounds consider what the words "fit and healthy" means compared to the opinion of journalists or members of the general public.

    In fact doctors do not even use that term, unless they are Donald Trump's doctor. They are more likely to describe someone as something like a "well-nourished, well developed adult male in no apparent distress. All systems are WNL"

    To the medical person obesity, overweight, history of smoking, history of asthma, excessive use of alcohol, and substance abuse all form part of a diagnosis or are classified as risk factors. Diabetes type II is also closely associated with obesity and may be undiagnosed. And that is without even taking account of any results of blood tests that could show up diagnoses like high cholesterol or liver damage.

    Replies: @Anon

    Reporters who say someone has no pre-existing medical problems have no way of knowing. Why? Because of the doctor-patient confidentiality rule. Doctors CANNOT go around blabbing to the press about a patient’s medical history. It has a special relationship like that between an attorney and client. Attorneys don’t go blabbing to the press about what legal advice they gave to clients, and doctors don’t go blabbing to the press about their patient’s medical history. Reporters who are saying this crap are either making it up entirely, or using the patient’s relatives as a source. But there are big problems even with the latter.

    Many times, even the patient’s own family doesn’t know about a relative’s medical problems because the patient won’t tell them. But the family doctor knows. Secondly, sometimes people who die haven’t been to the doctor in ages, and there’s nothing on their medical records that shows they have a pre-existing medical condition. But as the person aged, they could have become overweight, developed high blood pressure, or become type 2 diabetic, etc. There are plenty of pre-existing medical conditions a family might never know about. Sometimes the family know about a problem but are just in denial about it, and they insist that it couldn’t have contributed to the death. Sometimes they’re not smart enough to understand that something could even be a pre-existing medical condition.

    Most importantly, many of those dying are men. Men don’t talk about their medical problems to other people the way women do. What’s more, men are more likely to decide that it’s better NOT to tell their family about their own pre-existing health problems to spare their wife and kids anxiety.

  235. Literally all the Democrats had to do was nominate a plausible, competent presidential candidate and they would win the 2020 election running away. But instead, they nominate Senile Joe, all but guaranteeing a TRUMP victory. Unreal!

  236. @anonguy
    Trump has served his historical purpose, which was to be the epic troll for the national establishment, blue and red.

    Plus, he has inadvertently united the country, at least the part with shred of humanity, behind the notion of not dying for wall street.

    General Strike is rumbling in background, let's see where that goes as we continue to hear crickets from our billionaire class.

    Trump is a tired man now and his mental acuity has slipped. Various theories surrounding his unscheduled WRAMC visit last November seem within realm of credibility.

    Like some small strokes that have left him functional, just a little stubborn and set in his ways. Used to be considered a common consequence of aging.

    He's not of the mental powers he had on campaign trail in 2016, that is obvious to any careful observer IMO.

    His apparent need for all the Dear Leader adulation by subordinates in press conferences is another sign of decline.

    Replies: @Kronos, @Pericles, @TrudeauSux, @William Badwhite, @Escher

    Trump is on fire just like in his rallies from 2016…what the hell have you been watching you deluded fool???

  237. @Ron Unz
    @education realist


    Like many here, I completely disagree with Steve on this and have found it interesting how the skeptic community has broken up over this. Steve. JayMan, Claire Lehmann seem to think it’s fine to bankrupt the economy in the name of “Just One Less Death”, whereas Philippe, Ben SixSmith and others were worried at first but now worry we’ve overreacted.... And I’ve literally blocked Jay, he’s so obnoxious.
     
    Well, I'm vaguely familiar with Claire Lehmann, who's the editor of Quillette. But I don't spend my time on Twitter, so I don't have a clue who "Philippe" is. And what in the world is a "Ben SixSmith"?

    Offhand, it sounds like the divide may be between individuals who can do math and individuals who can't. For example, here's a graph someone just provided of the current exponential death-curve for New York:

    https://i.ibb.co/b610g3M/Graph0.png

    https://www.unz.com/runz/correctly-estimating-coronavirus-infections/#comment-3797732

    Replies: @education realist, @Kratoklastes, @Brás Cubas, @John Burns, Gettysburg Partisan, @Intelligent Dasein, @ThreeCranes, @keypusher

    Philippe Lemoine

    @phl43

    I wouldn’t call him a skeptic exactly. He’s cautious. He wrote what I thought was a very smart (certainly it was very long) response to the original Imperial College paper, which you can find on his blog. But that’s OBE now. Anyway, I think you would find him worth your time, although he mostly tweets in French these days.

    Don’t really know Sixsmith. EdReal, you’re awesome, but to be fair, it’s pretty easy to think that Sixsmith isn’t a real name.

    @BDSixsmith

  238. @Peter Akuleyev
    @Intelligent Dasein

    Clinton would have at least left competent professional administrators in place, there would have been a pandemia response plan and the CDC and FDA would not be run by bootlickers trying to curry favor with the Leader. Trump decided to destroy the Federal government precisely at the moment we actually needed it for something.

    Replies: @Anonymous, @Pericles, @Jenner Ickham Errican, @res

    You forgot the most important point. She would have had the MSM covering for her rather than working to tear her down.

  239. @Boethiuss
    @education realist


    But it’d keep the businesses open, and paying for security is a lot cheaper than paying for 3-5 million unemployed.

    Disneyland and other resort destinations–again, dramatic reductions in attendance. Driving is ok, but air travel less so. Airplanes can’t be full. Probably means prices increase.

    Use hotels to house elderly or other vulnerable populations who are living with family members or in areas where they can’t easily get around without lots of contact. That will take up some of their slack, and feeding them will also keep staff employed.
     
    I'd like to be sympathetic to this point of view, and if we're still where we are now by summer, I think we'll go way beyond this. Ie, at that point basically re-open everything, and hope that people have immunity.

    But, the biggest problem I have with the your line of comments on this thread is a lack of precision, even in terms of making a speculation as you are. That's to say, that if we did something along the lines of your suggestion, that would prevent the worst of the economic dislocation. I'm not convinced it would.

    Because in order to maintain economic activity, businesses must be open and have customers. And in your scenario, it seems as though there would be a huge dropoff in customers to the point where I question how much economic benefit there is in the business remaining open. In an extreme case with particular relevance, consider the cruise ship business. Tbh, I'm not sure exactly what virus-related restrictions are in force now. Whatever they are, suppose they were relaxed along the lines of your ideas. Even if the cruise lines were taking money, who's spending? Who really wants to get on a boat and steam from Miami to Jamaica now anyway?

    If we had more concrete answers to this sort of thing, we might be able to make smarter mitigations, specifically those resulting from widespread testing and self-knowledge related to being infected.

    Replies: @Harry Baldwin, @education realist

    Who gives a shit about cruise lines?

    As for your demands for “concrete”, that’s foolish. We don’t know if what we’re doing *now* will work, so why aren’t you demanding concrete numbers?

    You’re just diddling, so whatevs.

    • Agree: Desiderius
  240. @Ron Unz
    For the "It's Just the Flu!!!" crowd, there was a sobering report in my morning San Jose Mercury News...

    Santa Clara county officials now say they expect 2,000 deaths by July, ONE HUNDRED TIMES the current number of fatalities. And that's *despite* Santa Clara having led the US in implementing a total lock-down ten days ago:

    https://www.mercurynews.com/2020/03/26/coronavirus-santa-clara-county-could-see-2000-deaths-in-12-weeks-officials-say/

    Since New York was much slower to put in place a lockdown and the public transit and high-density living make transmission far easier, wouldn't that suggest at least an increase of 100x in fatalities in NY, bringing the July total to half a million in that state? Frankly, I'd guess at a much higher number.

    Interestingly enough, the official estimate of true infections in Santa Clara county is very similar to that produced by my simple methodology, suggesting that the public health officials are using something along those same lines:

    https://www.unz.com/runz/correctly-estimating-coronavirus-infections/

    Replies: @John Burns, Gettysburg Partisan, @Thomas, @BN, @XYZ (no Mr.), @res

    when do you expect the death rate to start spiking?

    https://covidtracking.com/data/state/california/

    this is for the entire state. so very little information on these deaths too.

  241. Trump is FDR.

    I spent most of my life with an annoying mental pebble in my shoe because I had too much intellectual pride to examine too closely exactly why it was that I loathed him while so many I respected revered his memory. The Trump experience has brought a great sense of relief as I now understand and the pebble is thankfully gone.

    • Replies: @Achmed E. Newman
    @Desiderius

    If I knew Trump was FDR, I'd have neither gone to a rally nor voted for him. We need another FDR like 330 million holes in the head.

    Replies: @ben tillman

  242. @Peter Akuleyev
    @education realist

    The UK tried the Education Realist approach for about a week. Things started spiraling out of control so quickly the government panicked and went to full lockdown. However, Sweden is still on the business as usual within limits plan, let’s see how that goes.

    The US missed the chance to be Taiwan about 6 weeks ago, around the time Trump was still referring to the Corona Virus as a hoax.

    Replies: @Mr McKenna, @MEH 0910, @education realist

    Wrong. England did nothing. Doing nothing would allow uncontrolled spread of the virus, which is clearly not what I’m advocating. But whatever.

    • Replies: @Peter Akuleyev
    @education realist

    You are wrong that the original UK plan was to “do nothing “, you sound like Jeremy Corbyn, but whatever.

    As I said, you are advocating the Swedish model. Kids in Sweden below 9th grade still go to school, shops are open, large gatherings banned but not small ones, etc. Austria and Germany tried this for a few days but reconsidered.

    We will know in a few weeks if you are right, keep your eye on Sweden and see how they do. Wouldn’t be the first time Swedes were smarter than everyone else in a crisis.

    Replies: @Peter Akuleyev

  243. @Dano
    Someone, please....get Steve a drink. Make it a big one.
    Here's a guy who should be shredding the hysteria...buying into it?
    Please Steve, turn off your TV.

    Replies: @scrivener3, @Kronos, @JimDandy, @Mike1

    I’m thrilled that Steve has a brain and is capable of using it. This has been an obvious nightmare since January. Watching conservatives blindly follow Trump on this has been really eye opening.

    I get that math is hard. This is a math problem. People’s understanding or not will be a life or death outcome – particularly for Boomers and older.

    My money is where my mouth is on this. I sold my house and every asset not required for my businesses. I told everyone I cared about to sell their stocks. Everybody but one person laughed. The guy that sold (and myself) are sitting on piles of cash while all the know-it-alls have seen savage losses. If the market has actually reached a bottom we have the luxury of buying in whenever we feel like it and still being ahead.

    A disease where you die from drowning in your own blood seems worth not catching.

    • Replies: @anonymous
    @Mike1


    The guy that sold (and myself) are sitting on piles of cash while all the know-it-alls have seen savage losses.
     
    That will be good for you, if the banks reopen.

    If you'd have said you were sitting on piles of gold and silver, you wouldn't look as goofy. Enjoy your $1000 loaf of bread, if you can find it. The grocery lines we currently enjoy isn't an emergency. It's a warning.

    In the meantime, Deutsche Bank is the prettiest black swan ever, sitting on an unprecedented pile of derivatives. Smell that? It's German body odor. They tend to sweat when they get nervous.

    Silver, Gold, and Hard Assets talk. Fat wallets walk.

    Replies: @Achmed E. Newman

  244. @anonguy
    @anonguy

    I'd think one of the number crunchers here could make short work of the risk factor categories and figure what percentage of USA population falls in high risk?

    I'm going to guess greater than 50%, just between age and obesity among the non-aged. And there are a bunch of other categories.

    Replies: @res

    Do you have a link to a quantitative listing of the risk factors? The best way I see to do this would be to look at one or more of the recent NHANES cycles. The most recent available is 2017-2018: https://wwwn.cdc.gov/nchs/nhanes/continuousnhanes/overview.aspx?BeginYear=2017

    Note the first entry in this list.

    The major objectives of NHANES are to:

    – Estimate the number and percentage of persons in the U.S. population and in designated subgroups with selected diseases and risk factors;
    – Monitor trends in the prevalence, awareness, treatment, and control of selected diseases;
    – Monitor trends in risk behaviors and environmental exposures;
    – Study the relationship between diet, nutrition, and health;
    – Explore emerging public health issues and new technologies; and
    – Provide baseline health characteristics that can be linked to mortality data from the National Death Index or other administrative records (e.g., enrollment and claims data from the Centers for Medicare & Medicaid Services).

    The data is population weighted and survey based so seems good for making the kind of estimates you have in mind.

    • Replies: @anonguy
    @res


    Do you have a link to a quantitative listing of the risk factors?
     
    I'm hoping people here could dig something like that up quick, seems up the alley of some of the people here.

    Replies: @res

  245. @Ron Unz
    For the "It's Just the Flu!!!" crowd, there was a sobering report in my morning San Jose Mercury News...

    Santa Clara county officials now say they expect 2,000 deaths by July, ONE HUNDRED TIMES the current number of fatalities. And that's *despite* Santa Clara having led the US in implementing a total lock-down ten days ago:

    https://www.mercurynews.com/2020/03/26/coronavirus-santa-clara-county-could-see-2000-deaths-in-12-weeks-officials-say/

    Since New York was much slower to put in place a lockdown and the public transit and high-density living make transmission far easier, wouldn't that suggest at least an increase of 100x in fatalities in NY, bringing the July total to half a million in that state? Frankly, I'd guess at a much higher number.

    Interestingly enough, the official estimate of true infections in Santa Clara county is very similar to that produced by my simple methodology, suggesting that the public health officials are using something along those same lines:

    https://www.unz.com/runz/correctly-estimating-coronavirus-infections/

    Replies: @John Burns, Gettysburg Partisan, @Thomas, @BN, @XYZ (no Mr.), @res

    The article itself states the high projections are from San Jose city officials, and that Santa Clara county officials disagree with them.

    Have some exactness in your thoughts for once.

  246. anon[156] • Disclaimer says:
    @Jack D
    @Thomas

    To put this in perspective, in a normal year the US registers around 2,800,000+ deaths (including around 35,000 flu deaths). So an additional 80,000 deaths is 3% excess mortality. And much of that mortality will be made up later, as the 80,000 who die now would mostly (not all, but mostly) have died in the next 3 to 5 years anyway. This doesn't sound like the Apocalypse to me. We have had epidemics before but never before have we shut down the world economy for them. What has changed?

    Replies: @anon, @epebble, @Thomas, @James N. Kennett

    What changed is that this disease clogs up and overwhelms hospitals. The fact it isn’t exceptionally lethal means that people are filling ICU beds and staying. We have 2.8 hospital beds per 1,000. And a fraction of an ICU bed per 1,000. And it isn’t spread evenly across national resources.

    So it is concentrated and public. Sorry to say, but it is inherently dramatic. It drove the Red Chinese to shut their economy down for less than 3,000 deaths. Less than 2 per million.

    I can’t explain exactly why it plays out this way. Just that it isn’t the death toll per se. Until the front line medical chaos ends, this will play out as a crisis.

    • Replies: @Jack D
    @anon


    What changed is that this disease clogs up and overwhelms hospitals. The fact it isn’t exceptionally lethal means that people are filling ICU beds and staying.
     
    This can be dealt with. While unlike the Chinese we are now incapable of building a hospital from scratch in a green field in 10 days (there was a time we could have done this but not anymore) there are plenty of facilities that could be repurposed.

    Even the ventilator shortage (and if you look hard enough that may not be a shortage at all) is based more on the way our medical system functions than on medical necessity. The sad reality is that once you have been on the ventilator for a week, you're not coming off of it. You have a better chance of hitting the Lotto than of coming off that machine alive. But under our system, you have to lie there and suffer some more and deplete your estate if you are uninsured, until your heart gives out - we're not allowed to unplug you. The technology has gotten way ahead of the ethics. So you have a whole bunch of ventilators tied up pumping air thru the chest of dead men and don't anyone dare pull the plug.

    Replies: @Steve Sailer, @epebble, @anon

  247. @Ron Unz
    For the "It's Just the Flu!!!" crowd, there was a sobering report in my morning San Jose Mercury News...

    Santa Clara county officials now say they expect 2,000 deaths by July, ONE HUNDRED TIMES the current number of fatalities. And that's *despite* Santa Clara having led the US in implementing a total lock-down ten days ago:

    https://www.mercurynews.com/2020/03/26/coronavirus-santa-clara-county-could-see-2000-deaths-in-12-weeks-officials-say/

    Since New York was much slower to put in place a lockdown and the public transit and high-density living make transmission far easier, wouldn't that suggest at least an increase of 100x in fatalities in NY, bringing the July total to half a million in that state? Frankly, I'd guess at a much higher number.

    Interestingly enough, the official estimate of true infections in Santa Clara county is very similar to that produced by my simple methodology, suggesting that the public health officials are using something along those same lines:

    https://www.unz.com/runz/correctly-estimating-coronavirus-infections/

    Replies: @John Burns, Gettysburg Partisan, @Thomas, @BN, @XYZ (no Mr.), @res

    Ron, they are using a R0 of 2.2. Do you think that is reasonable in light of the current social distancing measures?

    For anyone interested, here are the case estimates:

    The projections from San Jose’s Office of Emergency Management that were shared with the council suggest there are actually 9,000-19,000 cases of coronavirus in Santa Clara County today.

    Compare that to the hard data:

    Santa Clara County, which reported the first Northern California infection Jan. 31, is the hardest hit in the Bay Area with its confirmed 542 positive tests, 154 hospitalizations and 19 deaths. Nearly half of the total cases are presumed to have come from community transmission.

    Agree that those numbers make it look like they are using something like your methodology. That 19,000 upper bound would correspond exactly to a fatality rate of 1%. That seems unlikely to be a coincidence.

    But shouldn’t the case estimate be higher then given the infection-mortality lag?

    • Replies: @Ron Unz
    @res


    Agree that those numbers make it look like they are using something like your methodology. That 19,000 upper bound would correspond exactly to a fatality rate of 1%. That seems unlikely to be a coincidence.

    But shouldn’t the case estimate be higher then given the infection-mortality lag?
     
    Well, don't forget that Santa Clara was completely locked down 10 days ago, leading the nation. Presumably, that had a very major impact upon growth of infections over the last ten days, though exactly how major is guesswork.

    If I'd had to estimate the true infections, I would have produced a range very similar similar to that of the local health officials (who have all available data and are *vastly* more expert than myself).
  248. @Mr McKenna
    @Dave Pinsen

    No issue with your points, but keep in mind that GWB's approval rating was relatively mediocre until the day after 9/11. But what had we really learned that day about GWB, aside from the fact that he and the government had failed to keep this country safe? His approval rating shot up to ~90%.

    https://www.jstor.org/stable/3792592?seq=1

    Replies: @UK, @Joseph Doaks, @dfordoom

    What the American people want is a daddy figure who will tell them that everything will be O.K.

  249. @Jack D
    @Thomas

    To put this in perspective, in a normal year the US registers around 2,800,000+ deaths (including around 35,000 flu deaths). So an additional 80,000 deaths is 3% excess mortality. And much of that mortality will be made up later, as the 80,000 who die now would mostly (not all, but mostly) have died in the next 3 to 5 years anyway. This doesn't sound like the Apocalypse to me. We have had epidemics before but never before have we shut down the world economy for them. What has changed?

    Replies: @anon, @epebble, @Thomas, @James N. Kennett

    Evidence seems to be showing that significant fraction of non-elders ( < 60) are passing too. While one may be philosophical about the inevitability of the end etc., for elders, even 1% of, say, 100,000 non-elders can cause quite a social pandemonium. The news of many health care workers falling suggests this is a pretty aggressive virus. More interestingly, the chest X-ray of many non-Covid patients who are showing up for other causes shows Covid like lung scarring. This proves, at least anecdotally, that Covid can be extensively asymptomatic. If 40% of the population is Covid Charlies, it is going to be dancing around for a long time, like common cold or flu, only more deadly.

    • Replies: @Jack D
    @epebble


    If 40% of the population is Covid Charlies,
     
    then this means that herd immunity is going to kick in soon. The current CDC guidance is that you are no longer contagious 3 days after you are clear of symptoms.

    Replies: @res

  250. @Achmed E. Newman
    @wren

    I know more about the CCP's dicked-up attempt at information control than Ron Unz does, and I agree with you here, but:

    Shed no tears for Zerohedge, Wren. They've lost their focus on global financial matters, they've nearly hidden the comments which used to be the best part of the site, it's full of ads that make the page jump around like a Mexican jumping bean for 2 minutes before you can read, but worstly, "Tyler Durden" has quit the fight club and become a simpering pussy on the subject of the Kung Flu - see Peak Stupidity"s "Et tu, Tyler?"

    Replies: @onetwothree, @wren, @Peter D. Bredon

    “they’ve nearly hidden the comments which used to be the best part of the site,”

    Um, you press a button labeled “comments”.

    “it’s full of ads that make the page jump around like a Mexican jumping bean for 2 minutes before you can read”

    Switch to Brave as your browser like the rest of us cool kids and the ads disappear.

    Next question?

    • Replies: @Achmed E. Newman
    @Peter D. Bredon

    Peter, I said nearly hidden. Sure you mash that button under the ads, and then when you've read a couple of dozen, you have to click for more. The comments used to be plainly visible right under the post. It's not worth it, because I can read pretty fast. I've said it before, and I'll say this again (unless Ron Unz changes it), the commenting system here is the best way to do it I've ever seen.

    I have looked at ZH on LOTS of browsers, some on new systems. I have not tried Bravo, but I'll think about it. I have ads blocked most everywhere else but the Lyin' Press big sites, which I avoid most of the time anyway. I've even had ZH lock up the whole computer in hotel lobbies, multiple times. They usually have their software pretty tight.

    Here's the next question: What make you so sure you're one of the cool kids?

    ;-}

  251. @Kronos
    @anonguy

    To my (public) knowledge Trump hasn’t suffered any strokes and any fatigue is likely work related. Biden appears to be a much more likely candidate for mini stroke cognitive decline. The media/Democratic complex is always searching for any medical rational for removing Trump from the Presidency while many comments from Biden would give anyone pause. True, both are at an age when such medical occurrences are high but I don’t see it. Of course, the slip ups from Biden and Sanders could be attributed to campaign fatigue and insomnia as well.

    https://www.newsweek.com/discussing-coronavirus-response-sanders-accidentally-calls-it-ebola-biden-accidentally-calls-it-1492425

    Replies: @anonguy

    Thank you for clarifying your point of disagreement.

    I’m not 100% asserting specifically strokes, just presenting that as a possibility.

    However, it seems we both agree that his presentation has degraded, for whatever the underlying causes.

    Which is the matter of more immediate practical importance, IMO.

  252. @newrouter
    >I started the book with the question: what exactly do real estate developers do? <

    They have an idea of how to transform a parcel of real estate from its current condition into something more profitable. The rest is just details.

    Replies: @newrouter, @James J. O'Meara

    “They have an idea of how to transform a parcel of real estate from its current condition into something more profitable. The rest is just details.”

    I published a kindle on Trump and positive thinking (or rather, New Thought) but Amazon nuked it last year as Hate Speech. You can still find the articles on Counter-Currents, though, and in my real book, Magick for Housewives.

    Anyhow, your comment brings this to mind: I focused on Neville Goddard rather than Norman Vincent Peale, and Neville’s father created a vast fortune as a real estate developer (based on a food service business, Goddard Enterprises, still around and the largest conglomerate in the Caribbean). Many of his stories about “the power of positive thinking” as Peale would call it, involve his father’s ability to “visualize” how parcels of land would look as developments, or how financing could be suddenly available. Hmmm.

  253. @res
    @anonguy

    Do you have a link to a quantitative listing of the risk factors? The best way I see to do this would be to look at one or more of the recent NHANES cycles. The most recent available is 2017-2018: https://wwwn.cdc.gov/nchs/nhanes/continuousnhanes/overview.aspx?BeginYear=2017

    Note the first entry in this list.


    The major objectives of NHANES are to:

    - Estimate the number and percentage of persons in the U.S. population and in designated subgroups with selected diseases and risk factors;
    - Monitor trends in the prevalence, awareness, treatment, and control of selected diseases;
    - Monitor trends in risk behaviors and environmental exposures;
    - Study the relationship between diet, nutrition, and health;
    - Explore emerging public health issues and new technologies; and
    - Provide baseline health characteristics that can be linked to mortality data from the National Death Index or other administrative records (e.g., enrollment and claims data from the Centers for Medicare & Medicaid Services).
     
    The data is population weighted and survey based so seems good for making the kind of estimates you have in mind.

    Replies: @anonguy

    Do you have a link to a quantitative listing of the risk factors?

    I’m hoping people here could dig something like that up quick, seems up the alley of some of the people here.

    • Replies: @res
    @anonguy

    Here is the closest thing I see.
    https://www.cdc.gov/coronavirus/2019-ncov/specific-groups/people-at-higher-risk.html


    Based upon available information to date, those at high-risk for severe illness from COVID-19 include:

    - People aged 65 years and older
    - People who live in a nursing home or long-term care facility
    - Other high-risk conditions could include:
    - - People with chronic lung disease or moderate to severe asthma
    - - People who have serious heart conditions
    - - People who are immunocompromised including cancer treatment
    - - People of any age with severe obesity (body mass index [BMI] >40) or certain underlying medical conditions, particularly if not well controlled, such as those with diabetes, renal failure, or liver disease might also be at risk
    - People who are pregnant should be monitored since they are known to be at risk with severe viral illness, however, to date data on COVID-19 has not shown increased risk
     
    Note that their BMI threshold is 40! Aside from the age threshold of 65 (16% of Americans), I doubt there are that many people in the other categories. Moderate to severe asthma is probably next most prevalent, but I am not finding good (and easily interpretable) numbers for that. I see about 8% with asthma in the US, but there seems to be uncertainty about the proportion of those which are moderate or severe cases (some say 1/3).
    https://www.atsjournals.org/doi/full/10.1164/rccm.2107057

    Diabetes is a wild card though. About 10% of people in the US have diabetes, but presumably only a fraction of those cases would be considered uncontrolled.

    Replies: @anonguy

  254. Trump, as usual, is the only voice of reason in government. This thing is not the killer it’s been made out to be. It’s time to go back to work. When Trump calls for the country to go back to work, sometime around Easter, he will either prevail and we will return to economic health, or the Dem/MSM complex and the likes of Cuomo and Newsom will prevail and a great depression will follow.

  255. anonymous[209] • Disclaimer says:
    @Mike1
    @Dano

    I'm thrilled that Steve has a brain and is capable of using it. This has been an obvious nightmare since January. Watching conservatives blindly follow Trump on this has been really eye opening.

    I get that math is hard. This is a math problem. People's understanding or not will be a life or death outcome - particularly for Boomers and older.

    My money is where my mouth is on this. I sold my house and every asset not required for my businesses. I told everyone I cared about to sell their stocks. Everybody but one person laughed. The guy that sold (and myself) are sitting on piles of cash while all the know-it-alls have seen savage losses. If the market has actually reached a bottom we have the luxury of buying in whenever we feel like it and still being ahead.

    A disease where you die from drowning in your own blood seems worth not catching.

    Replies: @anonymous

    The guy that sold (and myself) are sitting on piles of cash while all the know-it-alls have seen savage losses.

    That will be good for you, if the banks reopen.

    If you’d have said you were sitting on piles of gold and silver, you wouldn’t look as goofy. Enjoy your $1000 loaf of bread, if you can find it. The grocery lines we currently enjoy isn’t an emergency. It’s a warning.

    In the meantime, Deutsche Bank is the prettiest black swan ever, sitting on an unprecedented pile of derivatives. Smell that? It’s German body odor. They tend to sweat when they get nervous.

    Silver, Gold, and Hard Assets talk. Fat wallets walk.

    • Replies: @Achmed E. Newman
    @anonymous

    Great comment. Thank you, #209. For Mike1, I think you did great selling the stocks (I never had any to sell - don't like the stress). But, your house? Why? Are you in a shipping container with your family and piles of Jacksons, Grants, and Benjamins? ;-}

  256. @epebble
    @Jack D

    Evidence seems to be showing that significant fraction of non-elders ( < 60) are passing too. While one may be philosophical about the inevitability of the end etc., for elders, even 1% of, say, 100,000 non-elders can cause quite a social pandemonium. The news of many health care workers falling suggests this is a pretty aggressive virus. More interestingly, the chest X-ray of many non-Covid patients who are showing up for other causes shows Covid like lung scarring. This proves, at least anecdotally, that Covid can be extensively asymptomatic. If 40% of the population is Covid Charlies, it is going to be dancing around for a long time, like common cold or flu, only more deadly.

    Replies: @Jack D

    If 40% of the population is Covid Charlies,

    then this means that herd immunity is going to kick in soon. The current CDC guidance is that you are no longer contagious 3 days after you are clear of symptoms.

    • Replies: @res
    @Jack D

    Thanks. Here is the full CDC guidance:
    https://www.cdc.gov/coronavirus/2019-ncov/if-you-are-sick/care-for-someone.html


    People with COVID-19 who have stayed home (are home isolated) can stop home isolation under the following conditions:

    If they will not have a test to determine if they are still contagious, they can leave home after these three things have happened:
    - They have had no fever for at least 72 hours (that is three full days of no fever without the use medicine that reduces fevers)
    AND
    - other symptoms have improved (for example, when their cough or shortness of breath have improved)
    AND
    - at least 7 days have passed since their symptoms first appeared

    If they will be tested to determine if they are still contagious, they can leave home after these three things have happened:
    - They no longer have a fever (without the use medicine that reduces fevers)
    AND
    - other symptoms have improved (for example, when their cough or shortness of breath have improved)
    AND
    - They received two negative tests in a row, 24 hours apart. Their doctor will follow CDC guidelines.
     

    Replies: @epebble

  257. @anon
    @Jack D

    What changed is that this disease clogs up and overwhelms hospitals. The fact it isn't exceptionally lethal means that people are filling ICU beds and staying. We have 2.8 hospital beds per 1,000. And a fraction of an ICU bed per 1,000. And it isn't spread evenly across national resources.

    So it is concentrated and public. Sorry to say, but it is inherently dramatic. It drove the Red Chinese to shut their economy down for less than 3,000 deaths. Less than 2 per million.

    I can't explain exactly why it plays out this way. Just that it isn't the death toll per se. Until the front line medical chaos ends, this will play out as a crisis.

    Replies: @Jack D

    What changed is that this disease clogs up and overwhelms hospitals. The fact it isn’t exceptionally lethal means that people are filling ICU beds and staying.

    This can be dealt with. While unlike the Chinese we are now incapable of building a hospital from scratch in a green field in 10 days (there was a time we could have done this but not anymore) there are plenty of facilities that could be repurposed.

    Even the ventilator shortage (and if you look hard enough that may not be a shortage at all) is based more on the way our medical system functions than on medical necessity. The sad reality is that once you have been on the ventilator for a week, you’re not coming off of it. You have a better chance of hitting the Lotto than of coming off that machine alive. But under our system, you have to lie there and suffer some more and deplete your estate if you are uninsured, until your heart gives out – we’re not allowed to unplug you. The technology has gotten way ahead of the ethics. So you have a whole bunch of ventilators tied up pumping air thru the chest of dead men and don’t anyone dare pull the plug.

    • Replies: @Steve Sailer
    @Jack D

    Dear Jack D:

    I'd like to get in touch with you via email. Could you drop me a line?

    Steve

    Replies: @Jenner Ickham Errican, @Jack D

    , @epebble
    @Jack D

    Not always true, many hospitals are planning on optimizing resource utilization. For example, see https://www.cnn.com/2020/03/27/health/michigan-henry-ford-letter-coronavirus/index.html

    They know enough not to create a black hole where patients come in and corpses go out, in a linear pipeline.

    , @anon
    @Jack D


    we’re not allowed to unplug you.
     
    You don't have to convince me. But it's a third rail in American politics.

    Deborah Birx is already denying blanket DNR policies.

    Meanwhile: https://www.foxnews.com/health/hospitals-weigh-blanket-dnr-orders-amid-coronavirus-protective-equipment-shortages

    But if a small percentage of NY's population is infected and it produces chaos, 4x more patients will show up next week, and on and on until it exhausts itself.

    Korea and China pursued containment, but we went to mitigation quickly after containment failed.
  258. @Thomas
    @Jonathan Mason

    New York had zero deaths 2 weeks ago.

    Replies: @Jonathan Mason

    The Florida corona virus dashboard has been out of service all day today (8:00 am to 2:00 pm). Hopefully this is not because it was suddenly swamped with reports of new infections and deaths.

    It is possible that the hotter weather in Florida is preventing the virus from spreading outdoors. At least I hope so.

    This virus seems to have an affinity for ski resorts, so perhaps it spreads itself more actively in cold weather and at altitude.

    Here in North Florida the expected daily high for the next 4 days is 95 or higher, then it drops to 91. New York only has one day with a high over 60 predicted for the next week. London still has some days with highs in the 40’s and is expected to go close to zero on a couple of nights.

  259. anonymous[209] • Disclaimer says:
    @Harry Baldwin
    @Anonymous

    he picked Pence simply because of his uncanny resemblance to Race Bannon.

    Good point, but it doesn't explain why he fired Steve ACTUAL Bannon.

    Replies: @anonymous

    he picked Pence simply because of his uncanny resemblance to Race Bannon.

    Good point, but it doesn’t explain why he fired Steve ACTUAL Bannon.

    Maybe because he seemed too much like “Racist Bannon.”

  260. @Rob (LM)
    @Harry Baldwin

    No one asked him to create one, just maybe leave in place the one that was already there. Would it have helped? We'll never know now will we.

    Replies: @Harry Baldwin

    We’ll never know now will we.

    True, we’ll never know, but if experience is any guide they’d have been useless. Probably would have objected to Trump closing traffic with China. When these bureaucracies are put to the test it quickly becomes obvious they have no idea what they’re doing.

  261. I suspect novel Corona virus has already swept through large portions of the population and herd immunity is closer than we think.
    https://archive.is/erN8m
    The virus has such incredible infectious properties I have to think it is far, far, more widespread than the limited test result data is showing. This is supported by the huge number of celebrities who have tested positive for coronavirus.

    Almost everyone I know got a strange cold/headache/fever combo in Jan/Feb, was this coronavirus? Maybe. The only people getting limited test are severely illl or celebrities who can pull strings for access. Since most celebrities who have it don’t have any symptoms, it would seem to support my hunch. Alternatively, the celebs may be getting “encouraged” to lie in order to influence public behavior.

    So if there’s one thing both sides can agree on is that we should be flooding the country with tests so we have early detection and accurate forecasting. Without knowing the true spread of this virus we are flying blind. I cant fathom all that trillions of dollars can do but surely it could accelerate coronavirus testing! My personal opinion is that we should have used the money to expand testing and critical healthcare access, and NOT risk sending the country into a great depression with this draconian economic lockdown. You mean to tell me that the best and brightest in our government cant pull together to produce ventilator/mask/testing when there are many examples of people doing so in their own garages? What is more important for society, for parents to be able to work and put food on the table for their little ones, or for sickly gramps to eke out a couple more years and live to be 83 instead of 81? I would rather as a country we do our best to respond to Gramps’ flu and let Mom and Dad take care of their kids. Can we put our nation wide response up for some kind of vote? Because at no time like the present has it been more clear this country’s policy is being ran by selfish ancient fossils like our democratic presidential candidates and George soros.

  262. @Jack D
    @anon


    What changed is that this disease clogs up and overwhelms hospitals. The fact it isn’t exceptionally lethal means that people are filling ICU beds and staying.
     
    This can be dealt with. While unlike the Chinese we are now incapable of building a hospital from scratch in a green field in 10 days (there was a time we could have done this but not anymore) there are plenty of facilities that could be repurposed.

    Even the ventilator shortage (and if you look hard enough that may not be a shortage at all) is based more on the way our medical system functions than on medical necessity. The sad reality is that once you have been on the ventilator for a week, you're not coming off of it. You have a better chance of hitting the Lotto than of coming off that machine alive. But under our system, you have to lie there and suffer some more and deplete your estate if you are uninsured, until your heart gives out - we're not allowed to unplug you. The technology has gotten way ahead of the ethics. So you have a whole bunch of ventilators tied up pumping air thru the chest of dead men and don't anyone dare pull the plug.

    Replies: @Steve Sailer, @epebble, @anon

    Dear Jack D:

    I’d like to get in touch with you via email. Could you drop me a line?

    Steve

    • Replies: @Jenner Ickham Errican
    @Steve Sailer


    Dear Jack D:

    Could you drop me a line?
     

    Okay Steve, now you’re panicking… :)
    , @Jack D
    @Steve Sailer

    Hopefully you received my email. If not, please let me know.

  263. @res
    @Ron Unz

    Ron, they are using a R0 of 2.2. Do you think that is reasonable in light of the current social distancing measures?

    For anyone interested, here are the case estimates:


    The projections from San Jose’s Office of Emergency Management that were shared with the council suggest there are actually 9,000-19,000 cases of coronavirus in Santa Clara County today.
     
    Compare that to the hard data:

    Santa Clara County, which reported the first Northern California infection Jan. 31, is the hardest hit in the Bay Area with its confirmed 542 positive tests, 154 hospitalizations and 19 deaths. Nearly half of the total cases are presumed to have come from community transmission.
     
    Agree that those numbers make it look like they are using something like your methodology. That 19,000 upper bound would correspond exactly to a fatality rate of 1%. That seems unlikely to be a coincidence.

    But shouldn't the case estimate be higher then given the infection-mortality lag?

    Replies: @Ron Unz

    Agree that those numbers make it look like they are using something like your methodology. That 19,000 upper bound would correspond exactly to a fatality rate of 1%. That seems unlikely to be a coincidence.

    But shouldn’t the case estimate be higher then given the infection-mortality lag?

    Well, don’t forget that Santa Clara was completely locked down 10 days ago, leading the nation. Presumably, that had a very major impact upon growth of infections over the last ten days, though exactly how major is guesswork.

    If I’d had to estimate the true infections, I would have produced a range very similar similar to that of the local health officials (who have all available data and are *vastly* more expert than myself).

  264. @Xerxes the Magian
    Interesting I'm an enterpeneur in Britain and this reminds me of myself (if I say so myself). I'm a relentless optimist.

    On the other hand my wife (who's a STEM researcher) is a hyper-rationalist.

    My hunch is that my sky-castles that have materialised are because they've been rather relentlessly tested.

    I suspect Boris Johnson & Donald Trump suffer from the fact that they have no one to temper their manic optimism and hence why they've so badly misplayed this COVID-19 crisis.

    Replies: @James J. O'Meara

    “Badly misplayed”

    Meaning, approval of handling =60%, personal approval = highest ever.

    A few more such “misplays” and he could be in real trouble.

  265. @Thomas
    @Ron Unz


    Santa Clara county officials now say they expect 2,000 deaths by July, ONE HUNDRED TIMES the current number of fatalities.
     
    Based on the population of Santa Clara County, extrapolated to the rest of the United States, that would suggest a little over 300,000 dead nationwide. Compared to the 30,000 dead the "just the flu, just the flu!" parrots keep mouthing, that tracks with this being about 10 times more lethal.

    The University of Washington School of Medicine (USNWR national ranks: #13 in research, #2 in primary care) is predicting 81,000 U.S. deaths by July 1. If you look at their model, it matches the daily death toll so far. And that's with what we're doing now.

    https://www.seattletimes.com/seattle-news/health/uw-model-says-social-distancing-is-starting-to-work-but-still-projects-1400-coronavirus-deaths-in-the-state/

    https://covid19.healthdata.org/projections

    Replies: @Ron Unz, @AnotherDad, @Jack D, @Boethiuss, @Thatgirl

    There were an estimated 80,000 flu deaths in US last year, not 30,000.

    So we wouldn’t have 10x more deaths but 3.75x.

    https://www.google.com/amp/s/www.vox.com/platform/amp/2018/9/27/17910318/flu-deaths-2018-epidemic-outbreak-shot

  266. @Peter D. Bredon
    @Achmed E. Newman

    "they’ve nearly hidden the comments which used to be the best part of the site,"

    Um, you press a button labeled "comments".

    "it’s full of ads that make the page jump around like a Mexican jumping bean for 2 minutes before you can read"

    Switch to Brave as your browser like the rest of us cool kids and the ads disappear.

    Next question?

    Replies: @Achmed E. Newman

    Peter, I said nearly hidden. Sure you mash that button under the ads, and then when you’ve read a couple of dozen, you have to click for more. The comments used to be plainly visible right under the post. It’s not worth it, because I can read pretty fast. I’ve said it before, and I’ll say this again (unless Ron Unz changes it), the commenting system here is the best way to do it I’ve ever seen.

    I have looked at ZH on LOTS of browsers, some on new systems. I have not tried Bravo, but I’ll think about it. I have ads blocked most everywhere else but the Lyin’ Press big sites, which I avoid most of the time anyway. I’ve even had ZH lock up the whole computer in hotel lobbies, multiple times. They usually have their software pretty tight.

    Here’s the next question: What make you so sure you’re one of the cool kids?

    ;-}

  267. @anonguy
    @res


    Do you have a link to a quantitative listing of the risk factors?
     
    I'm hoping people here could dig something like that up quick, seems up the alley of some of the people here.

    Replies: @res

    Here is the closest thing I see.
    https://www.cdc.gov/coronavirus/2019-ncov/specific-groups/people-at-higher-risk.html

    Based upon available information to date, those at high-risk for severe illness from COVID-19 include:

    – People aged 65 years and older
    – People who live in a nursing home or long-term care facility
    – Other high-risk conditions could include:
    – – People with chronic lung disease or moderate to severe asthma
    – – People who have serious heart conditions
    – – People who are immunocompromised including cancer treatment
    – – People of any age with severe obesity (body mass index [BMI] >40) or certain underlying medical conditions, particularly if not well controlled, such as those with diabetes, renal failure, or liver disease might also be at risk
    – People who are pregnant should be monitored since they are known to be at risk with severe viral illness, however, to date data on COVID-19 has not shown increased risk

    Note that their BMI threshold is 40! Aside from the age threshold of 65 (16% of Americans), I doubt there are that many people in the other categories. Moderate to severe asthma is probably next most prevalent, but I am not finding good (and easily interpretable) numbers for that. I see about 8% with asthma in the US, but there seems to be uncertainty about the proportion of those which are moderate or severe cases (some say 1/3).
    https://www.atsjournals.org/doi/full/10.1164/rccm.2107057

    Diabetes is a wild card though. About 10% of people in the US have diabetes, but presumably only a fraction of those cases would be considered uncontrolled.

    • Replies: @anonguy
    @res

    Great, keep digging up dots and connecting them.

    Where is IntelligentDasein when we need him?

    The coronavirus general threads on pol have a vast store of archived material. pol/cvg folder

    Replies: @Intelligent Dasein

  268. @John Burns, Gettysburg Partisan
    @Ron Unz

    Actually, America has become quite competent at forcing Italians overseas to watch porn and avoid religious services.

    Replies: @The Wild Geese Howard

    Actually, PornHub is now offering free premium to anyone who pledges to socially distance themselves:

    “Help Flatten The Curve” – Pornhub Offers Free Premium Service To Everyone

    https://www.zerohedge.com/markets/help-flatten-curve-pornhub-offers-free-premium-service-everyone

    And incels everywhere rejoiced!

  269. @BB753
    @JimDandy

    You can't do that. Boomers still believe they're young. They won't comply if you call them "elderly".

    Replies: @JimDandy, @tbmcc

    True, they won’t go into their retreats willingly, so this process will require some brawn and will save the economy as millions of new jobs open up under the category of Boomer Remover.

  270. @Jack D
    @epebble


    If 40% of the population is Covid Charlies,
     
    then this means that herd immunity is going to kick in soon. The current CDC guidance is that you are no longer contagious 3 days after you are clear of symptoms.

    Replies: @res

    Thanks. Here is the full CDC guidance:
    https://www.cdc.gov/coronavirus/2019-ncov/if-you-are-sick/care-for-someone.html

    People with COVID-19 who have stayed home (are home isolated) can stop home isolation under the following conditions:

    If they will not have a test to determine if they are still contagious, they can leave home after these three things have happened:
    – They have had no fever for at least 72 hours (that is three full days of no fever without the use medicine that reduces fevers)
    AND
    – other symptoms have improved (for example, when their cough or shortness of breath have improved)
    AND
    – at least 7 days have passed since their symptoms first appeared

    If they will be tested to determine if they are still contagious, they can leave home after these three things have happened:
    – They no longer have a fever (without the use medicine that reduces fevers)
    AND
    – other symptoms have improved (for example, when their cough or shortness of breath have improved)
    AND
    – They received two negative tests in a row, 24 hours apart. Their doctor will follow CDC guidelines.

    • Replies: @epebble
    @res

    I think test less release is risky (if the released don't practice social distancing etc., as though they are infected). CDC will probably revise the guidelines once tests are freely available. Right now, they are so pressed for tests that they are not even testing very probably Covid persons unless they are very sick. So, they can't write must test rules for release without causing even more howling.

  271. @Thatgirl
    @JimDandy


    But are ICUs not actually being overwhelmed, in ways that haven’t happened in previous regular ol’ flu seasons? Are those all crisis actors? Is the overwhelming of the ICUs not an enormous problem for many reasons, not the least of which being the fact that people without the virus who need the ICU will die when in any other year the would have lived?

    What am I missing here?
     
    I have wondered too a great deal about this particular point.

    Like everyone else I can only speculate but I believe it is in part the panic itself that is driving the overwhelming of the hospitals.

    Last year, 80,000 Americans died of the flu but almost none of those people died in the hospital. Instead, they died in nursing homes or in their own beds. Now, because of the panic, their frightened families and caregivers are taking them to the hospital. This is what has overwhelmed the hospitals, not necessarily an increase in the numbers of sick people (although that has also occurred) but just the numbers going to the hospital.

    Replies: @JimDandy

    Yeah, I’ve said all along that this was legitimate news if 100,000 or more Americans end up dying . I think your theory makes some sense, but… is that what happened in China? And Italy?

  272. @FozzieT
    @Anonymous

    If Hillary had been elected we would not have been going through this crisis at all. The media would have treated it the same way they treated H1N1 when Obama was president. “Hey, there’s a new strain of flu going around. Stay home if you feel sick. Nothing more to see here. Move along, move along.”

    Replies: @The Wild Geese Howard

    If Hillary had been elected we would not have been going through this crisis at all.

    If the Dems retake the WH in November the only thing we’ll hear about Corona-chan is something like this:

    “Virus? What virus?”

    “Ohhhhh…that whole Corona thing? Right.”

    “Well….the new studies show that it’s only an issue for folks 65 and older who have compromised immune systems. Even then, the CFR is only 0.1% – no worse than the normal flu.”

    “Besides, we know it is easily treatable with a cheap, widely available 50-year old anti-malarial, vitamin C, and zinc supplements.”

    “Next question!”

  273. @Rob (London)
    @Polynikes

    Either of those presidents would at least have had a pandemic prevention unit to call on. Trump in his infinite wisdom decided that because there wasn't a pandemic happening at the time, it wasn't needed.

    Replies: @wren, @Harry Baldwin, @ben tillman

    Fake news.

  274. @Corn
    @RichardTaylor

    “I think a certain type of nerd gets off on ‘end of the world’ scenarios. Asteroid collisions, volcanoes, pandemics, peak oil, etc, etc. It’s a chance to let their nerd skills shine.”

    Ramzpaul has been talking about this. Certain groups are hoping for the Wu Flu to be disastrous. Right wing survivalist types would like to see this virus collapse America so they could leave their basements and bunkers and take charge. Hard lefties hope for the worst case scenarios to come true too, thinking it will discredit Trump, the right, etc. Then they can bring the socialist revolution to American shores.

    When this is all said and done most likely, we’ll be clanking along, just dealing with the same old shit.

    Replies: @The Wild Geese Howard

    Hard lefties hope for the worst case scenarios to come true too, thinking it will discredit Trump, the right, etc. Then they can bring the socialist revolution to American shores.

    “Muh ethnic restaurants and world music & craft fairs from sea-to-shining-sea FTMFW!!!”

    • LOL: Achmed E. Newman
  275. Anon[542] • Disclaimer says:
    @candid_observer
    Maybe a bit OT, but one thing that's pissed me off is how the Chinese government did so little to prevent this virus from popping up.

    It's obvious enough that the eating practices of segments of Chinese society brought on this virus, and many others.

    How could the Chinese government neglect to put an end to those practices? We're talking about one of the most oppressively authoritarian governments in the world. They couldn't put that authoritarianism to good use where it is truly needed, by aggressive efforts to clamp down on these practices? They go out of their way to change just about everything else in Chinese society by harsh punishment, but they leave bat soup untouched?

    What an egregious squandering of one of the few positive sides of authoritarianism.

    Replies: @Anon, @HA

    They go out of their way to change just about everything else in Chinese society by harsh punishment, but they leave bat soup untouched?

    Bat soup is not a traditional Chinese dish. It is in Palau, which is a former US colony and currently a kind of US protectorate. Of course most people, including most Americans, have never heard of Palau. But American diplomats and those in the US intel community engaged in information operations are probably going to be familiar with Palau and its culinary traditions. The bat soup video that originally went viral at the beginning of the outbreak was actually from Palau.

    https://twitter.com/Ripleys/status/697974409500307457

    • Replies: @Joe Stalin
    @Anon

    "Of course most people, including most Americans, have never heard of Palau."

    https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=46m3lr6MJ_E
    https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=Aquu3w12JnU

    Replies: @PiltdownMan

  276. anon[156] • Disclaimer says:
    @The Wild Geese Howard
    @Harry Baldwin


    Cruise ships shouldn’t even be on our radar when it comes to saving businesses.
     
    Bermuda and Panama are fairly well-off. The cruise lines flagged there should beg them for money.

    As for the line flagged in Liberia, well, sucks to be them.

    Replies: @anon

    It’s not just Cruise Ships. All international Shipping is done with non US registered ships. US shipping must operate under the Jones Act. It’s a holdover protectionist scheme from the 1920’s. Barges and the like operate under it.

    Without the tax and regulatory relief, no one could afford cruises.

    But, even so, there is a reasonably significant amount of knock on business associated with the cruise industry. Travel agents, ports, etc. Disney Cruises.

    So maybe a loan, but not a major bailout.

    • Replies: @anonguy
    @anon


    Without the tax and regulatory relief, no one could afford cruises.
     
    And now without the tax revenue and a properly regulated (and hence in better shape) cruise industry, we can't afford relief for such a frivolity with everything else going on now.

    It is just karma, not schadenfreude.

    The cruise industry is in no way part of the solution and the global tourism borg in its current incarnation has clearly been part of the problem

    As for strategic shipping, that is another issue and should be dealt with separately.

  277. Anonymous[399] • Disclaimer says:
    @RichardTaylor
    @JimDandy


    But are ICUs not actually being overwhelmed, in ways that haven’t happened in previous regular ol’ flu seasons?
     
    Where are ICUs in America clogged?

    I did hear hospitals in NYC are getting a lot of hypochondriacs in the waiting rooms.

    Does anyone know if ICUs across the country are overwhelmed?

    Replies: @anon, @JimDandy, @Anonymous

    Where are ICUs in America clogged?

    I did hear hospitals in NYC are getting a lot of hypochondriacs in the waiting rooms.

    Does anyone know if ICUs across the country are overwhelmed?

    I am employed by a large hospital chain the owns and operates 7 hospitals in Los Angeles County. As of yesterday, the volumes in the ICUs at each of the hospitals were at normal March levels except for one which was 15% higher than normal. Looking pretty good at this point in time. Need to see what happens over the next few weeks

  278. @Jack D
    @anon


    What changed is that this disease clogs up and overwhelms hospitals. The fact it isn’t exceptionally lethal means that people are filling ICU beds and staying.
     
    This can be dealt with. While unlike the Chinese we are now incapable of building a hospital from scratch in a green field in 10 days (there was a time we could have done this but not anymore) there are plenty of facilities that could be repurposed.

    Even the ventilator shortage (and if you look hard enough that may not be a shortage at all) is based more on the way our medical system functions than on medical necessity. The sad reality is that once you have been on the ventilator for a week, you're not coming off of it. You have a better chance of hitting the Lotto than of coming off that machine alive. But under our system, you have to lie there and suffer some more and deplete your estate if you are uninsured, until your heart gives out - we're not allowed to unplug you. The technology has gotten way ahead of the ethics. So you have a whole bunch of ventilators tied up pumping air thru the chest of dead men and don't anyone dare pull the plug.

    Replies: @Steve Sailer, @epebble, @anon

    Not always true, many hospitals are planning on optimizing resource utilization. For example, see https://www.cnn.com/2020/03/27/health/michigan-henry-ford-letter-coronavirus/index.html

    They know enough not to create a black hole where patients come in and corpses go out, in a linear pipeline.

  279. @education realist
    Like many here, I completely disagree with Steve on this and have found it interesting how the skeptic community has broken up over this. Steve. JayMan, Claire Lehmann seem to think it's fine to bankrupt the economy in the name of "Just One Less Death", whereas Philippe, Ben SixSmith and others were worried at first but now worry we've overreacted. Others, like me, are pretty appalled at things like Claire Lehmann, High Priestess of Open Thought, approving Medium pulling that article, or Steve saying hey, we've already done the damage so let's do more until we can see some benefit. And I've literally blocked Jay, he's so obnoxious.

    But I shouldn't be surprised at Steve; he has always valued ends over means. That's not a cut; he just thinks pragmatically.

    In any event, he's completely wrong on this. We're hurting our younger generations so a bunch of health nuts and establishment worshipping media can get off on extreme reactions so they can feel heroic.

    Replies: @utu, @Testing12, @Boethiuss, @Ron Unz, @Dave Pinsen, @ben tillman

    Like many here, I completely disagree with Steve on this and have found it interesting how the skeptic community has broken up over this. Steve. JayMan, Claire Lehmann seem to think it’s fine to bankrupt the economy in the name of “Just One Less Death”, whereas Philippe, Ben SixSmith and others were worried at first but now worry we’ve overreacted. Others, like me, are pretty appalled at things like Claire Lehmann, High Priestess of Open Thought, approving Medium pulling that article, or Steve saying hey, we’ve already done the damage so let’s do more until we can see some benefit. And I’ve literally blocked Jay, he’s so obnoxious.

    What the hell are you talking about?

  280. @Jack D
    @Thomas

    To put this in perspective, in a normal year the US registers around 2,800,000+ deaths (including around 35,000 flu deaths). So an additional 80,000 deaths is 3% excess mortality. And much of that mortality will be made up later, as the 80,000 who die now would mostly (not all, but mostly) have died in the next 3 to 5 years anyway. This doesn't sound like the Apocalypse to me. We have had epidemics before but never before have we shut down the world economy for them. What has changed?

    Replies: @anon, @epebble, @Thomas, @James N. Kennett

    That’s 80,000 just by July 1st, so over the next 13 weeks. And that’s assuming we maintain the current measures that the moneychangers say is wrecking the economy.

  281. @anonguy
    @Kratoklastes

    Your comment is inane and I'm certain the only reason Steve allows such word and idea salad is so that you will feel important and contribute during fund drive.

    But anyhow, if TPTB, if such a thing exists, were trying to scare people, dontcha think they'd be saying that we are all going to die because we don't have enough masks?

    That is super low hanging fruit. But no, masks don't work spewage.

    The facts are bad enough, you don't even need to make things up.

    Yesterday, NYC had record EMS medical calls, 6406, surpassed 9/11 even.

    When do you think it will be under that number again?

    Replies: @peterike, @Kratoklastes

    Yesterday, NYC had record EMS medical calls, 6406, surpassed 9/11 even.

    Do you know how many insanely paranoid hypochondriacs live in New York City?

    • Replies: @anonguy
    @peterike

    Here is a tip that may prove useful for someone in your apparent filter bubble.

    In the toilet paper shortage, don't flush paper towels, etc, they clog sewer systems.

    What happens then in a lockdown when sanitation breaks down like this. And sanitation plumbing people don't want to deal with biowaste?

    Tell your neighbors, even if you are on a septic tank, it is something that could make a big difference in their lives in the coming days.

  282. Scott Alexander, who may have the exact opposite personality from Donald Trump

    All we know of either of these men is a rigid persona. This claim seems unsupported and unsupportable. The opposite of Trump’s persona would be an impoverished monk in a cell that nobody will ever hear of. Alexander’s persona certainly does plenty of self-promotion.

  283. @res
    @Jack D

    Thanks. Here is the full CDC guidance:
    https://www.cdc.gov/coronavirus/2019-ncov/if-you-are-sick/care-for-someone.html


    People with COVID-19 who have stayed home (are home isolated) can stop home isolation under the following conditions:

    If they will not have a test to determine if they are still contagious, they can leave home after these three things have happened:
    - They have had no fever for at least 72 hours (that is three full days of no fever without the use medicine that reduces fevers)
    AND
    - other symptoms have improved (for example, when their cough or shortness of breath have improved)
    AND
    - at least 7 days have passed since their symptoms first appeared

    If they will be tested to determine if they are still contagious, they can leave home after these three things have happened:
    - They no longer have a fever (without the use medicine that reduces fevers)
    AND
    - other symptoms have improved (for example, when their cough or shortness of breath have improved)
    AND
    - They received two negative tests in a row, 24 hours apart. Their doctor will follow CDC guidelines.
     

    Replies: @epebble

    I think test less release is risky (if the released don’t practice social distancing etc., as though they are infected). CDC will probably revise the guidelines once tests are freely available. Right now, they are so pressed for tests that they are not even testing very probably Covid persons unless they are very sick. So, they can’t write must test rules for release without causing even more howling.

  284. @njguy73
    @Hibernian

    Hey, don't be saying that Roy Cohn represents us Jewish guys.

    Most of us like chicks.

    Replies: @James J. O'Meara

    Sarc, I assume. Cohn was the Ultimate Jew, everything he ever did or said was based on the art of chuzpah.

    As for the homo thing, one of the few times he ever deigned to address the issue, it’s in that recent bio pic Where’s My Roy Cohn? (a quote from Trump, btw), he said “A fag is someone who gets fucked, and I never get fucked; I fuck everyone else.”

    As Grammy Hall would say, a “real New York Jew.”

  285. @BB753
    @Hibernian

    Beale created a crazy mixture of Calvinism (more precisely, Arminianism) and New Age gnostic voluntarism.
    Does anybody know if Trump is a freemason? Because Norman Vincent Beale sure sounds like one.

    Replies: @James J. O'Meara, @anon

    Wow, I bet you went to graduate school.

    And it’s Peale, by the way (Beale was the Mad Prophet of the Airwaves in Network). But I’m sure the rest of your comment is on the nose.

    • Thanks: BB753
  286. @Steve Sailer
    @Jack D

    Dear Jack D:

    I'd like to get in touch with you via email. Could you drop me a line?

    Steve

    Replies: @Jenner Ickham Errican, @Jack D

    Dear Jack D:

    Could you drop me a line?

    Okay Steve, now you’re panicking… 🙂

  287. Anonymous[386] • Disclaimer says:
    @Bill P
    @wren

    The CCP is dominating Wikipedia on this issue. These treasonous little weasels in tech, media and academia are in full flower right now. They're scared they'll lose the deal they've had with Beijing for the past couple decades, so they're doubling down.

    In the meanwhile, Beijing is locking up foreigners and blaming the US military for the virus while Chinese citizens are walking around smugly with smiles on their faces here in the US.

    Whose country is this?

    Don't beat up Chinese, but feel free to let them know what you think of the CCP. There's no reason they should be comfortable here given what they've put us through. One thing is for sure -- the Chinese are currently abusing American citizens in China.

    Don't let them do that without pushback!

    Replies: @wren, @Anonymous

    It’s a huge relief to the Chinese that they’re not the only ones with this disease. They have good reason to be happy.

  288. @Desiderius
    Trump is FDR.

    I spent most of my life with an annoying mental pebble in my shoe because I had too much intellectual pride to examine too closely exactly why it was that I loathed him while so many I respected revered his memory. The Trump experience has brought a great sense of relief as I now understand and the pebble is thankfully gone.

    Replies: @Achmed E. Newman

    If I knew Trump was FDR, I’d have neither gone to a rally nor voted for him. We need another FDR like 330 million holes in the head.

    • Replies: @ben tillman
    @Achmed E. Newman


    If I knew Trump was FDR, I’d have neither gone to a rally nor voted for him. We need another FDR like 330 million holes in the head.
     
    I couldn't agree more. And Ditto for Johnson and Wilson.

    Replies: @Achmed E. Newman

  289. anon[156] • Disclaimer says:
    @Jack D
    @anon


    What changed is that this disease clogs up and overwhelms hospitals. The fact it isn’t exceptionally lethal means that people are filling ICU beds and staying.
     
    This can be dealt with. While unlike the Chinese we are now incapable of building a hospital from scratch in a green field in 10 days (there was a time we could have done this but not anymore) there are plenty of facilities that could be repurposed.

    Even the ventilator shortage (and if you look hard enough that may not be a shortage at all) is based more on the way our medical system functions than on medical necessity. The sad reality is that once you have been on the ventilator for a week, you're not coming off of it. You have a better chance of hitting the Lotto than of coming off that machine alive. But under our system, you have to lie there and suffer some more and deplete your estate if you are uninsured, until your heart gives out - we're not allowed to unplug you. The technology has gotten way ahead of the ethics. So you have a whole bunch of ventilators tied up pumping air thru the chest of dead men and don't anyone dare pull the plug.

    Replies: @Steve Sailer, @epebble, @anon

    we’re not allowed to unplug you.

    You don’t have to convince me. But it’s a third rail in American politics.

    Deborah Birx is already denying blanket DNR policies.

    Meanwhile: https://www.foxnews.com/health/hospitals-weigh-blanket-dnr-orders-amid-coronavirus-protective-equipment-shortages

    But if a small percentage of NY’s population is infected and it produces chaos, 4x more patients will show up next week, and on and on until it exhausts itself.

    Korea and China pursued containment, but we went to mitigation quickly after containment failed.

  290. @anonymous
    @Mike1


    The guy that sold (and myself) are sitting on piles of cash while all the know-it-alls have seen savage losses.
     
    That will be good for you, if the banks reopen.

    If you'd have said you were sitting on piles of gold and silver, you wouldn't look as goofy. Enjoy your $1000 loaf of bread, if you can find it. The grocery lines we currently enjoy isn't an emergency. It's a warning.

    In the meantime, Deutsche Bank is the prettiest black swan ever, sitting on an unprecedented pile of derivatives. Smell that? It's German body odor. They tend to sweat when they get nervous.

    Silver, Gold, and Hard Assets talk. Fat wallets walk.

    Replies: @Achmed E. Newman

    Great comment. Thank you, #209. For Mike1, I think you did great selling the stocks (I never had any to sell – don’t like the stress). But, your house? Why? Are you in a shipping container with your family and piles of Jacksons, Grants, and Benjamins? ;-}

  291. “Your health may depend upon you keeping this in mind.”

    Indeed, Mr. Sailer. The power of positive thinking in action.

    https://thehill.com/homenews/administration/489849-trump-lashes-out-at-gm-ford-over-ventilators

  292. @peterike
    @Ron Unz

    I like how the doctor in that video says "This is America. This is a first world country." Yeah, but this is also Elmhurst, which is a third-world neighborhood.

    I wonder how much of the stress on the ER is frantic, excitable third worlders crashing the emergency room because they coughed a few times.

    Replies: @epebble

    They are not even tested for Covid, let alone be hospitalized, unless they are very sick. Hospitals are doing aggressive utilization review with PPE’s and tests. NYS is being creative with sharing ventilators, converting anesthesia machines to ventilators and some have even suggested taking veterinary equipment. Henry Ford health plan in Michigan is planning triage for ICU utilization.

  293. @anonguy
    @Kratoklastes

    Your comment is inane and I'm certain the only reason Steve allows such word and idea salad is so that you will feel important and contribute during fund drive.

    But anyhow, if TPTB, if such a thing exists, were trying to scare people, dontcha think they'd be saying that we are all going to die because we don't have enough masks?

    That is super low hanging fruit. But no, masks don't work spewage.

    The facts are bad enough, you don't even need to make things up.

    Yesterday, NYC had record EMS medical calls, 6406, surpassed 9/11 even.

    When do you think it will be under that number again?

    Replies: @peterike, @Kratoklastes

    dontcha think they’d be saying that we are all going to die because we don’t have enough masks

    They already tried that – weeks ago.

    It didn’t resonate, because the average schlub thinks that wearing masks in public is stupid and is only done by Asian female germophobes. That’s the historical ‘hook’ in the public mind.

    You’re obviously only newly-interested. Are you 12?

    The fact that you weren’t paying attention until the TV told you to panic about something that triggered you, doesn’t mean that no messaging existed before you got hysterical.

    Just a few links from my covid19\other folder…

    The Atlantic, Jan 30: We Don’t Have Enough Masks: Pandemics will require deciding who needs respirators and surgical masks, and who doesn’t.

    Nikkei Asian Review, Feb 17: Mask shortages threaten US hospitals after warnings ignored

    Bloomberg, March 9: The Global Mask Shortage May Get Much Worse

    FDA, March 11: FAQs on Shortages of Surgical Masks and Gowns

    CDC, March 18: Strategies for Optimizing the Supply of Facemasks

    Newsflow in the last day or so shows that they’ve had another crack at getting traction for mask-hysteria: WaPo, NYT, NPR.

    lol @ the NYT headline: “How the World’s Richest Country Ran Out of a 75-Cent Face Mask“.

    I mean for fuck’s sake… if you had been following this thing for more than a few days, you could have picked a thousand better examples.

    • Replies: @anonguy
    @Kratoklastes


    I mean for fuck’s sake… if you had been following this thing for more than a few days, you could have picked a thousand better examples.
     
    If you knew how stupid that is you wouldn't have said it.
  294. @sb057
    I've long said that the key to understanding Trump is to understand his two greatest mentors: Norman Vincent Peale and Roy Cohn. He's become a relatively obscure figure today, but he was effectively the mastermind behind the Second Red Scare (McCarthy was something of his puppet). He was also known more generally as your ultimate sleazebag New York lawyer and has the paper trail to back it up. He also served as Trump's lawyer in the future President's early career, and would allegedly call him for advice on a near-constant basis. Also interesting is his death from AIDS and apparent repressed homosexuality.

    Replies: @Hibernian, @James J. O'Meara

    “relatively unknown” meaning other than having a film about him released a few months ago:

    https://www.counter-currents.com/2019/11/roy-we-hardly-knew-ye/

  295. @peterike
    @anonguy


    Yesterday, NYC had record EMS medical calls, 6406, surpassed 9/11 even.
     
    Do you know how many insanely paranoid hypochondriacs live in New York City?

    Replies: @anonguy

    Here is a tip that may prove useful for someone in your apparent filter bubble.

    In the toilet paper shortage, don’t flush paper towels, etc, they clog sewer systems.

    What happens then in a lockdown when sanitation breaks down like this. And sanitation plumbing people don’t want to deal with biowaste?

    Tell your neighbors, even if you are on a septic tank, it is something that could make a big difference in their lives in the coming days.

  296. @anon
    @The Wild Geese Howard

    It's not just Cruise Ships. All international Shipping is done with non US registered ships. US shipping must operate under the Jones Act. It's a holdover protectionist scheme from the 1920's. Barges and the like operate under it.

    Without the tax and regulatory relief, no one could afford cruises.

    But, even so, there is a reasonably significant amount of knock on business associated with the cruise industry. Travel agents, ports, etc. Disney Cruises.

    So maybe a loan, but not a major bailout.

    Replies: @anonguy

    Without the tax and regulatory relief, no one could afford cruises.

    And now without the tax revenue and a properly regulated (and hence in better shape) cruise industry, we can’t afford relief for such a frivolity with everything else going on now.

    It is just karma, not schadenfreude.

    The cruise industry is in no way part of the solution and the global tourism borg in its current incarnation has clearly been part of the problem

    As for strategic shipping, that is another issue and should be dealt with separately.

  297. @Jack D
    @Thomas

    To put this in perspective, in a normal year the US registers around 2,800,000+ deaths (including around 35,000 flu deaths). So an additional 80,000 deaths is 3% excess mortality. And much of that mortality will be made up later, as the 80,000 who die now would mostly (not all, but mostly) have died in the next 3 to 5 years anyway. This doesn't sound like the Apocalypse to me. We have had epidemics before but never before have we shut down the world economy for them. What has changed?

    Replies: @anon, @epebble, @Thomas, @James N. Kennett

    This doesn’t sound like the Apocalypse to me. We have had epidemics before but never before have we shut down the world economy for them. What has changed?

    If nothing were done, and the epidemic were allowed to run its course, there could be two million additional deaths in the USA, mainly of people with pre-existing health conditions whose life expectancy was short anyway. The annual death rate would be almost doubled. 150 years ago, when most people died at home, we would have shrugged our shoulders and thought we had had a bad flu epidemic.

    The lockdown will save most of those lives, but at a cost of millions of dollars each. Our grandchildren will still be paying back that debt long after we are all dead.

    A far less expensive way to save lives would be to let the vulnerable self-isolate, with help from a paid task force, while anybody who does not wish to endure this privation could take their chances and continue with life as usual.

    The argument against this approach is that the lockdown is not only trying to save lives, but to eradicate Covid-19. If the virus is not eradicated, we do not yet know whether it would become endemic in the population, with mutated strains causing regular epidemics like the one we are having now.

    When deciding whether to continue with very expensive attempts at eradication, it is vital to know whether it is actually feasible.

    We can get clues from looking at countries where the epidemic began earlier than in the US. It is not helpful that China has banned foreigners from entering the country. The WHO and CDC are already in China but are unlikely to contradict the Chinese in public, because they would risk expulsion; however they may be giving private advice to the US government. Taiwan, South Korea, Japan and Italy are all worth watching closely.

  298. @Kratoklastes
    @anonguy


    dontcha think they'd be saying that we are all going to die because we don't have enough masks
     
    They already tried that - weeks ago.

    It didn't resonate, because the average schlub thinks that wearing masks in public is stupid and is only done by Asian female germophobes. That's the historical 'hook' in the public mind.

    You're obviously only newly-interested. Are you 12?

    The fact that you weren't paying attention until the TV told you to panic about something that triggered you, doesn't mean that no messaging existed before you got hysterical.

    Just a few links from my covid19\other folder...

    The Atlantic, Jan 30: We Don’t Have Enough Masks: Pandemics will require deciding who needs respirators and surgical masks, and who doesn’t.

    Nikkei Asian Review, Feb 17: Mask shortages threaten US hospitals after warnings ignored

    Bloomberg, March 9: The Global Mask Shortage May Get Much Worse

    FDA, March 11: FAQs on Shortages of Surgical Masks and Gowns

    CDC, March 18: Strategies for Optimizing the Supply of Facemasks

    Newsflow in the last day or so shows that they've had another crack at getting traction for mask-hysteria: WaPo, NYT, NPR.

    lol @ the NYT headline: "How the World’s Richest Country Ran Out of a 75-Cent Face Mask".


    I mean for fuck's sake... if you had been following this thing for more than a few days, you could have picked a thousand better examples.

    Replies: @anonguy

    I mean for fuck’s sake… if you had been following this thing for more than a few days, you could have picked a thousand better examples.

    If you knew how stupid that is you wouldn’t have said it.

  299. moshe says:
    @PennTothal
    The greatest risk factor for contracting the virus is being in a hospital.

    Most "superspreader events" during the SARS outbreak occurred INSIDE of hospitals.

    https://academic.oup.com/cid/article/44/8/1017/296620

    You are much better off staying away from hospitals if you have mild or moderate symptoms that can be manged at home.

    Even if you have severe flu-like symptoms, your chance of having COVID-19 is no higher than the chance that your decision to go to the hospital will expose you to it.

    Which raises the troubling question about that viral NY Post photo of all those people waiting in line to get into ElmHurst hospital in Queens. What are those people waiting in line for? They are putting themselves at high risk by waiting in that line. They are putting themselves at even higher risk if they succeed in their foolish quest to get inside that COVID-19 infested building. Unless they are so ill that they cannot take oral fluids to rehydrate at home, or so short of breath that they need supplemental oxygen, there is NO reason to go to that hospital. They are walking into their own demise.

    Replies: @moshe

    Is there data about HOW PEOPLE ACTUALLY CAUGHT THE VIRUS?

    I mean was it through kissing? Eating together at a table? TOUCHING a table that someone with the virus happens to have virus’ed onto?

    Where are the statistics about how EXACTLY the virus left the saluva of PERSON A and entered the saliva of PERSON B?

    • Replies: @ben tillman
    @moshe

    Right. More specifically, how does an asymptomatic carrier transmit it if not through coughing or sneezing?

  300. @Ron Unz
    @Thomas


    Based on the population of Santa Clara County, extrapolated to the rest of the United States, that would suggest a little over 300,000 dead nationwide. Compared to the 30,000 dead the “just the flu, just the flu!” parrots keep mouthing, that tracks with this being about 10 times more lethal.
     
    Exactly!! Santa Clara county led the nation in having the first total lock-down, implemented about 10 days ago. Plus the low-density suburban living very likely reduces transmission, as well as the generally affluent, well-educated population, who can and will take reasonable precautions.

    So if the rest of America had gone into the same total lock-down 10 days ago, the entire country might have escaped with only 500,000 to 1M dead (reflecting the much higher intrinsic risk factors).

    But instead time was lost and continues to be lost. If you assume a doubling-period of 3 days, waiting just a single extra week raises the number of infections by roughly a factor of 5x, greatly increasing the likelihood that the local health care system will collapse, which in turn raises the death rate by another factor of 5x. An exponential process is very much determined by early steps.

    Anyway, let's just say I'm *very* happy I live in Santa Clara county rather than NYC...

    Replies: @Faraday's Bobcat

    It may not be a coincidence that the County Executive of Santa Clara County is a doc. Nice guy, my wife used to work for him. No idea how he got into politics.

  301. @Brás Cubas
    @Ron Unz


    And what in the world is a “Ben SixSmith”?
     
    Ben Sixsmith writes for Spectator USA. Here's a piece he wrote about you:

    The Curious Case of Ron Unz
    https://spectator.us/ron-unz/

    As for your seeming astonishment over his last name, here is some information about its origins:

    https://www.surnamedb.com/Surname/Sixsmith

    Just thought you'd like to know. Besides, my reaction-button functionality has been blocked for not commenting often enough, so...

    Replies: @JimDandy

    That Spectator article was a pathetic, misleading propaganda hit-piece. Truly repulsive piece of yellow trash.

  302. @Steve Sailer
    @Jack D

    Dear Jack D:

    I'd like to get in touch with you via email. Could you drop me a line?

    Steve

    Replies: @Jenner Ickham Errican, @Jack D

    Hopefully you received my email. If not, please let me know.

  303. @BB753
    @Hibernian

    Beale created a crazy mixture of Calvinism (more precisely, Arminianism) and New Age gnostic voluntarism.
    Does anybody know if Trump is a freemason? Because Norman Vincent Beale sure sounds like one.

    Replies: @James J. O'Meara, @anon

    Beale created a crazy mixture of Calvinism (more precisely, Arminianism)

    Laughter s healthy, especially in stressful times, thanks for a good one!

    • Replies: @BB753
    @anon

    You're welcome, but I didn't make up the term Arminianism.
    https://www.britannica.com/topic/Arminianism

    Replies: @anon

  304. @anonguy
    Trump has served his historical purpose, which was to be the epic troll for the national establishment, blue and red.

    Plus, he has inadvertently united the country, at least the part with shred of humanity, behind the notion of not dying for wall street.

    General Strike is rumbling in background, let's see where that goes as we continue to hear crickets from our billionaire class.

    Trump is a tired man now and his mental acuity has slipped. Various theories surrounding his unscheduled WRAMC visit last November seem within realm of credibility.

    Like some small strokes that have left him functional, just a little stubborn and set in his ways. Used to be considered a common consequence of aging.

    He's not of the mental powers he had on campaign trail in 2016, that is obvious to any careful observer IMO.

    His apparent need for all the Dear Leader adulation by subordinates in press conferences is another sign of decline.

    Replies: @Kronos, @Pericles, @TrudeauSux, @William Badwhite, @Escher

    He’s been speaking ad hoc during a lot of this and has been fantastic. He killed it on Hannity last night. I don’t usually watch Hannity but tuned in to hear Trump.

    I couldn’t stop laughing when he singled out Governor Inslee of WA and the woman in Michigan. Something to the effect of “Jay Inslee in Washington. Another failed presidential candidate by the way. He ran, didn’t do so well. He got zero”. About the MI woman he said he loves Michigan, loves the people, and “they deserve a governor who does something besides sit there and complain. ”

    Trump is at his best when he ridicules the political class.

  305. @Intelligent Dasein

    I’m not a fan of the forced quarantines or the giant bailout, but am I really to believe anything would’ve been better if Obama or W were leading this shitshow of panic that has swept the nation?
     
    Never mind Obama and W, just imagine if Hillary was leading this shitshow. Can you even contemplate what horrors such a fate would encompass?

    Donald Trump is a sure sign that God still loves us and hasn't abandoned His creation.

    Replies: @Peter Akuleyev, @Corn, @Je Suis Omar Mateen

    “Never mind Obama and W, just imagine if Hillary was leading this shitshow. Can you even contemplate what horrors such a fate would encompass?”

    None. Only international news geeks would follow this obscure virus that killed a few thousand frail geezers. America’s fakestream media would ignore it for the most part. No shutdowns, no $2 trillion printopaloozas.

    • Replies: @Ron Mexico
    @Je Suis Omar Mateen

    You know she would have exploited it in numerous ways for her own enrichment. She just recently crawled out from the 8th Circle to tweet an America First joke. What great comic timing this Demon bitch has. At least she won't be a Dem veep or any other candidate now.

  306. @res
    @anonguy

    Here is the closest thing I see.
    https://www.cdc.gov/coronavirus/2019-ncov/specific-groups/people-at-higher-risk.html


    Based upon available information to date, those at high-risk for severe illness from COVID-19 include:

    - People aged 65 years and older
    - People who live in a nursing home or long-term care facility
    - Other high-risk conditions could include:
    - - People with chronic lung disease or moderate to severe asthma
    - - People who have serious heart conditions
    - - People who are immunocompromised including cancer treatment
    - - People of any age with severe obesity (body mass index [BMI] >40) or certain underlying medical conditions, particularly if not well controlled, such as those with diabetes, renal failure, or liver disease might also be at risk
    - People who are pregnant should be monitored since they are known to be at risk with severe viral illness, however, to date data on COVID-19 has not shown increased risk
     
    Note that their BMI threshold is 40! Aside from the age threshold of 65 (16% of Americans), I doubt there are that many people in the other categories. Moderate to severe asthma is probably next most prevalent, but I am not finding good (and easily interpretable) numbers for that. I see about 8% with asthma in the US, but there seems to be uncertainty about the proportion of those which are moderate or severe cases (some say 1/3).
    https://www.atsjournals.org/doi/full/10.1164/rccm.2107057

    Diabetes is a wild card though. About 10% of people in the US have diabetes, but presumably only a fraction of those cases would be considered uncontrolled.

    Replies: @anonguy

    Great, keep digging up dots and connecting them.

    Where is IntelligentDasein when we need him?

    The coronavirus general threads on pol have a vast store of archived material. pol/cvg folder

    • Replies: @Intelligent Dasein
    @anonguy

    I'm here, and I'm happy to see you drop by again.

  307. @anonguy
    @Ron Unz

    Here is a great comment on that piece:


    Lots of the great and the good and people whose entire self-conception hinges on them being smart with their finger on the pulse are extremely angry that they didn’t see this coming. One of the ways their psyche copes with that inescapable fact is with an aggressively stupid under-reaction.
     
    It really amazed me, for one, that Bloomberg, with all the info and analysis apparatus at his fingertips, completely missed this.

    To their credit, CIA issued a concern in January, but Trump WH seems to have taken it as some Deep State plot, seemingly.

    Trump's early travel ban was very, very good, but complete fail on followup. It could have been a tremendously valuable first move if the margin it afforded had been used.

    Replies: @William Badwhite

    To their credit, CIA issued a concern in January, but Trump WH seems to have taken it as some Deep State plot, seemingly.

    This is the problem with being completely untrustworthy and participating in an attempted coup – people don’t trust the untrustworthy.

    Going forward the CIA should be either defunded or heavily purged but there is no point in having an intelligence agency that can’t be trusted by the executive branch. Same goes for the Washington staff of the FBI.

    • Agree: Harry Baldwin
  308. @Pericles
    @Peter Akuleyev


    Clinton would have at least left competent professional administrators in place, there would have been a pandemia response plan and the CDC and FDA would not be run by bootlickers trying to curry favor with the Leader.

     

    Lol, we know you hate hate hate Trump with a parodic zeal but, please, you need a sense of proportion and realism in what you write. Also, adding an infatuation with Hillary to your hatred of Trump is rather disappointing.

    Replies: @William Badwhite, @Peter Akuleyev

    Also, adding an infatuation with Hillary to your hatred of Trump is rather disappointing.

    Yes. The idea that Hillary Clinton is both intelligent and competent is on par with believing in Santa Claus. (Cue Paleo Liberal to tell us how she finished first in her class in law school). Virtually everything she’s touched has failed. She’s like King Midas in reverse. She failed the DC bar exam. The woman couldn’t get health care reform through a Democratic House. Her arrogant buffoonery then cost the Dems the House, something previously thought impossible. Her stint as a Senator included nothing of importance. Her time as Sec’y of State was a debacle. She couldn’t beat Bernie Sanders legitimately so had to use her typically ham-fisted methods to wrest the nomination, then insulted half the country and while ignoring the advice of her husband, managed to lose to Donald Trump. And of course the Russia hoax came out of her campaign.

    Virtually everything she’s had in life has been handed to her, and she in turn has dropped it. It is hard to think of a politician more useless and incompetent while also being such a vile human being. And yet there are STILL people like jabbering foreigner Peter A that labor under the delusion she’d have been a great President.

    • Replies: @ben tillman
    @William Badwhite

    Great comment! Two in a row, in fact.

    , @Nicholas Stix
    @William Badwhite

    In 1992, there was good reason to be infatuated with Madame Hillary--she was hot! With time, we were left with a chubby, wrinkled, vicious, drunken, foul-mouthed criminal.

    Replies: @Boethiuss, @anon, @Harry Baldwin, @Anonymous

    , @Achmed E. Newman
    @William Badwhite

    But on the flip side of the coin, she got fired from the Watergate committee...

    ... so there!

    , @Reg Cæsar
    @William Badwhite


    The idea that Hillary Clinton is both intelligent and competent is on par with believing in Santa Claus.
     
    She successfully dissuaded a rape victim from reporting the crime, and in such a way as not to be explicit, and thus convictable herself. In other words, she understood "plausible deniability" better than did Richard Nixon.

    I don't believe Bill told her the extent and details of his crime, only that it was serious enough to have derailed both their ambitions. That was enough to set her in motion.

    Also, Bill knew his victim was compromised, which suggests she was scoped out by one of the dicks on his AG staff. Casing the joint, in other words.

    Rape had a statute of limitations in 1979 Arkansas. Did obstruction of justice?

  309. @anonguy
    @res

    Great, keep digging up dots and connecting them.

    Where is IntelligentDasein when we need him?

    The coronavirus general threads on pol have a vast store of archived material. pol/cvg folder

    Replies: @Intelligent Dasein

    I’m here, and I’m happy to see you drop by again.

  310. @El Dato
    I have never seen anything as mind-boggingly close to a dystopian Hollywood flick than Derbyshire Police pursuing hikers by drone, adding glitzy panopticon-superstate-style computer overlays, then using the footage for Innenministeriuminformationszwecke.

    https://twitter.com/DerbysPolice/status/1243168931503882241

    Replies: @Testing12

    It’s like a prequel to the Tom Cruise movie Oblivion.

    I’ve never imagined there would be such a stampede toward totalitarianism by the American public. Much less by “conservatives”.

  311. @R.G. Camara
    @Coemgen

    Pence is one of those sober, somber, boring Washington-speakers that Trump cannot be. This was precisely the sort of situation Trump needed him for; while Trump projects excitement onto people (for good or for ill), Pence projects calm stoic boringness and yet also a well-informed manner, while Trump largely seems to be improv.

    Trump got Pence for the gravitas needed for bad situations where Trump's excitement might be a hindrance. In a crisis, you want a boring, low-key guy as one of the public faces, because everyone calms down.

    Replies: @Dave Pinsen, @Anonymous, @Unladen Swallow, @Twodees Partain

    Spot on, Trump is a great off the cuff public speaker, like the Rev. Jackson used to be, which works well on the campaign trail. Pence is rather dull in that role but appears very well informed and unflappable in a crisis situation, no question from the media seems to surprise him.

    • Replies: @The Wild Geese Howard
    @Unladen Swallow


    Pence is rather dull in that role but appears very well informed and unflappable in a crisis situation, no question from the media seems to surprise him.
     
    Pence has been surprising. I think his blandness is an asset as a counterpoint to Trump's bombast. I also think he's fairly happy as VP/XO/First Mate.

    The other thing I like about Pence - he has no Ivy League ties. His BA is from Hanover Colledge (IN) and his JD is from Indiana University – Purdue University Indianapolis.

    Two solid, Midwestern schools. Of course their grads are competent!
  312. That Michigan woman is a POS. Her POS Atty General woman encouraged Michiganders to call the police on their neighbors. The Michigan State Police had stated on March 24 that we aren’t under martial law, don’t call them for “violating” Stay at Home.

    • Replies: @The Wild Geese Howard
    @Ron Mexico


    That Michigan woman is a POS.
     
    She holds BS and JD degrees from Michigan State.

    The same Michigan State that covered up years of abuse by Larry Nasser, and just paid out a hefty settlement to keep it covered up.
  313. @Boethiuss
    @snorlax


    Oh no, here I was thinking Trump was in good shape until I saw you predicted the same.
     
    Yeah, you can say who is really supposed to care about that when there are so many other things which are more important.

    And not everything is going to turn on that. But narrow as it is, a lot of things will, not least of which was Speaker Pelosi's failed attempt to grab the agenda away from President Trump earlier this week.

    Replies: @Peter Akuleyev, @Anonymous

    Nancy Pelosi became Minority Whip on
    October 11, 2001.

    The “PATRIOT Act” rescinding much of the U.S. Constitution was signed into law on
    October 26, 2001.

    • Replies: @Boethiuss
    @Anonymous


    Nancy Pelosi became Minority Whip on
    October 11, 2001.

    The “PATRIOT Act” rescinding much of the U.S. Constitution was signed into law on
    October 26, 2001.
     
    I'm not sure exactly what this is intended to be responsive to, but what I was talking about was Mrs. Pelosi's intervention with the Senate Democrats a week or so ago, where they, the Senate D's refused to debate a bill they had just been negotiation with the Senate R's the couple of days prior.

    In its place, she tried to advance a Democratic wish list that had no support, and quickly retreated to an agreement between Sen Schumer and Secretary of the Treasury Mnuchin (and presumably McConnell was involved as well).
  314. @Achmed E. Newman
    @Desiderius

    If I knew Trump was FDR, I'd have neither gone to a rally nor voted for him. We need another FDR like 330 million holes in the head.

    Replies: @ben tillman

    If I knew Trump was FDR, I’d have neither gone to a rally nor voted for him. We need another FDR like 330 million holes in the head.

    I couldn’t agree more. And Ditto for Johnson and Wilson.

    • Replies: @Achmed E. Newman
    @ben tillman

    I was about to mention those very two scumbags in that comment, Ben, but I shortened it up.

  315. @Peter Akuleyev
    @Mr McKenna

    That is the weakest defense of Trump imaginable. No one is claiming that Trump was saying the virus does not exist, he was saying that the Democrats talking about a coming pandemic were perpetrating a hoax. Do you think he was right? Of course, there are still millions of Americans who think the response to a virus is a hoax. Many of them frequent these forums. Trump to this day continues to waffle and talks about the flu being just as lethal and car crashes and whatever.

    To be fair, in Europe the situation is often reversed. Salvini in Italy was the strongest voice for taking strong measures back in early February when the Left was still diddling around, and plenty of Marxists in France are still convinced the whole thing is a plot to keep demonstrators off the streets and hurt the workers. Orban has shut his entire country down. Putin, nota bene, wears full protection when he visits hospitals and practices social distancing, he seems to take the virus very seriously.

    Replies: @Biggest Shoe, @Mr McKenna, @e

    1. I wasn’t trying to defend Trump. I was asking a question about what he said. For a fee, though, I can and will defend Trump even to your satisfaction. Incidentally, this doesn’t mean I’m a fan of Trump–I’m not. It means I can defend him if sufficiently motivated. How about a substantial donation to our host?

    2. My memory is that the Dems at the time were still obsessed with “Impeachment!” and that many of them took potshots at Trump “RACIST!” for suggesting we control our borders, specifically limiting entrants who had visited infected areas of China. Our most prominent ‘prestige media’ outlets went on the warpath against the president over that.

    3. Whether or not the situation in Europe is actually ‘reversed’ I believe that the importance of borders has been driven home persuasively–but only to those who are capable of being persuaded. Our masses and their MSM gods will continue to parrot “viruses don’t respect borders’ nonsense even though (to my knowledge) no virus has yet passed through a concrete wall.

    PS: Viktor Orbán, now there’s a guy I like. The MSM in the USA are up in arms about him, and offhand I can think of no higher commendation.

  316. @William Badwhite
    @Pericles


    Also, adding an infatuation with Hillary to your hatred of Trump is rather disappointing.
     
    Yes. The idea that Hillary Clinton is both intelligent and competent is on par with believing in Santa Claus. (Cue Paleo Liberal to tell us how she finished first in her class in law school). Virtually everything she's touched has failed. She's like King Midas in reverse. She failed the DC bar exam. The woman couldn't get health care reform through a Democratic House. Her arrogant buffoonery then cost the Dems the House, something previously thought impossible. Her stint as a Senator included nothing of importance. Her time as Sec'y of State was a debacle. She couldn't beat Bernie Sanders legitimately so had to use her typically ham-fisted methods to wrest the nomination, then insulted half the country and while ignoring the advice of her husband, managed to lose to Donald Trump. And of course the Russia hoax came out of her campaign.

    Virtually everything she's had in life has been handed to her, and she in turn has dropped it. It is hard to think of a politician more useless and incompetent while also being such a vile human being. And yet there are STILL people like jabbering foreigner Peter A that labor under the delusion she'd have been a great President.

    Replies: @ben tillman, @Nicholas Stix, @Achmed E. Newman, @Reg Cæsar

    Great comment! Two in a row, in fact.

    • Thanks: William Badwhite
  317. @moshe
    @PennTothal

    Is there data about HOW PEOPLE ACTUALLY CAUGHT THE VIRUS?

    I mean was it through kissing? Eating together at a table? TOUCHING a table that someone with the virus happens to have virus'ed onto?

    Where are the statistics about how EXACTLY the virus left the saluva of PERSON A and entered the saliva of PERSON B?

    Replies: @ben tillman

    Right. More specifically, how does an asymptomatic carrier transmit it if not through coughing or sneezing?

  318. @William Badwhite
    @Pericles


    Also, adding an infatuation with Hillary to your hatred of Trump is rather disappointing.
     
    Yes. The idea that Hillary Clinton is both intelligent and competent is on par with believing in Santa Claus. (Cue Paleo Liberal to tell us how she finished first in her class in law school). Virtually everything she's touched has failed. She's like King Midas in reverse. She failed the DC bar exam. The woman couldn't get health care reform through a Democratic House. Her arrogant buffoonery then cost the Dems the House, something previously thought impossible. Her stint as a Senator included nothing of importance. Her time as Sec'y of State was a debacle. She couldn't beat Bernie Sanders legitimately so had to use her typically ham-fisted methods to wrest the nomination, then insulted half the country and while ignoring the advice of her husband, managed to lose to Donald Trump. And of course the Russia hoax came out of her campaign.

    Virtually everything she's had in life has been handed to her, and she in turn has dropped it. It is hard to think of a politician more useless and incompetent while also being such a vile human being. And yet there are STILL people like jabbering foreigner Peter A that labor under the delusion she'd have been a great President.

    Replies: @ben tillman, @Nicholas Stix, @Achmed E. Newman, @Reg Cæsar

    In 1992, there was good reason to be infatuated with Madame Hillary–she was hot! With time, we were left with a chubby, wrinkled, vicious, drunken, foul-mouthed criminal.

    • Replies: @Boethiuss
    @Nicholas Stix

    She was never hot.

    Replies: @Nicholas Stix

    , @anon
    @Nicholas Stix

    In 1992, there was good reason to be infatuated with Madame Hillary–she was hot!

    Man, the jokes just write themselves!

    , @Harry Baldwin
    @Nicholas Stix

    I recall there was a Woman's Day rally in Washington, DC, around the time of Clinton's inauguration, and one of the lesbian speakers declared, "At last we have a First Lady I would like to fuck!"

    I found that a bit crude even by LGBT standards.

    , @Anonymous
    @Nicholas Stix

    You are apparently severely visually impaired. She was unattractive at best then and repulsive now.

    I said in 2015 she should have found out what plastic surgeon Debbie Harry went to and went to him. Wouldn’t have made her good looking but could have brought her back to baseline dumpy instead of a cross between Phyllis Diller and Lemmy from Motörhead in drag.

    Hmmmm. My fone added the umlaut on its own! Nifty. It is ironic though that “umlaut” doesn’t use one, much as the”eszett” doesn’t either.

    Replies: @Jonathan Mason

  319. @Nicholas Stix
    @William Badwhite

    In 1992, there was good reason to be infatuated with Madame Hillary--she was hot! With time, we were left with a chubby, wrinkled, vicious, drunken, foul-mouthed criminal.

    Replies: @Boethiuss, @anon, @Harry Baldwin, @Anonymous

    She was never hot.

    • Replies: @Nicholas Stix
    @Boethiuss

    I could have sworn she was wearing a royal blue sweater and jacket at the time.

    Hey, how do you post a pic?

  320. @Anon
    @candid_observer


    They go out of their way to change just about everything else in Chinese society by harsh punishment, but they leave bat soup untouched?
     
    Bat soup is not a traditional Chinese dish. It is in Palau, which is a former US colony and currently a kind of US protectorate. Of course most people, including most Americans, have never heard of Palau. But American diplomats and those in the US intel community engaged in information operations are probably going to be familiar with Palau and its culinary traditions. The bat soup video that originally went viral at the beginning of the outbreak was actually from Palau.

    https://twitter.com/CarlZha/status/1243351601823154177

    https://twitter.com/Ripleys/status/697974409500307457

    Replies: @Joe Stalin

    “Of course most people, including most Americans, have never heard of Palau.”

    • Replies: @PiltdownMan
    @Joe Stalin


    “Of course most people, including most Americans, have never heard of Palau.”
     
    Most people also don't know how to pronounce the name of its capital city, Ngerulmud.

    PS: Nor do I. I heard of it just last week, while googling information about atomic tests in the Pacific.

  321. @Nicholas Stix
    @William Badwhite

    In 1992, there was good reason to be infatuated with Madame Hillary--she was hot! With time, we were left with a chubby, wrinkled, vicious, drunken, foul-mouthed criminal.

    Replies: @Boethiuss, @anon, @Harry Baldwin, @Anonymous

    In 1992, there was good reason to be infatuated with Madame Hillary–she was hot!

    Man, the jokes just write themselves!

  322. @Ron Mexico
    That Michigan woman is a POS. Her POS Atty General woman encouraged Michiganders to call the police on their neighbors. The Michigan State Police had stated on March 24 that we aren't under martial law, don't call them for "violating" Stay at Home.

    Replies: @The Wild Geese Howard

    That Michigan woman is a POS.

    She holds BS and JD degrees from Michigan State.

    The same Michigan State that covered up years of abuse by Larry Nasser, and just paid out a hefty settlement to keep it covered up.

  323. @Unladen Swallow
    @R.G. Camara

    Spot on, Trump is a great off the cuff public speaker, like the Rev. Jackson used to be, which works well on the campaign trail. Pence is rather dull in that role but appears very well informed and unflappable in a crisis situation, no question from the media seems to surprise him.

    Replies: @The Wild Geese Howard

    Pence is rather dull in that role but appears very well informed and unflappable in a crisis situation, no question from the media seems to surprise him.

    Pence has been surprising. I think his blandness is an asset as a counterpoint to Trump’s bombast. I also think he’s fairly happy as VP/XO/First Mate.

    The other thing I like about Pence – he has no Ivy League ties. His BA is from Hanover Colledge (IN) and his JD is from Indiana University – Purdue University Indianapolis.

    Two solid, Midwestern schools. Of course their grads are competent!

  324. @Nicholas Stix
    @William Badwhite

    In 1992, there was good reason to be infatuated with Madame Hillary--she was hot! With time, we were left with a chubby, wrinkled, vicious, drunken, foul-mouthed criminal.

    Replies: @Boethiuss, @anon, @Harry Baldwin, @Anonymous

    I recall there was a Woman’s Day rally in Washington, DC, around the time of Clinton’s inauguration, and one of the lesbian speakers declared, “At last we have a First Lady I would like to fuck!”

    I found that a bit crude even by LGBT standards.

  325. @Boethiuss
    @Nicholas Stix

    She was never hot.

    Replies: @Nicholas Stix

    I could have sworn she was wearing a royal blue sweater and jacket at the time.

    Hey, how do you post a pic?

  326. @Ron Unz
    Well, I'll take the liberty of republishing part of a comment I left on one of the earliest iSteve/Coronavirus posts almost exactly two weeks ago:

    Well, I’ve often pointed out the negative consequences of having a country run by its Ministry of Propaganda.

    For decades, America government and society has become more and more crazy and incompetent, with that reality concealed by our ever more sweeping propaganda. But since the Coronavirus doesn’t pay attention to the MSM, we’ll soon find out the consequences of that strategy.
     
    The biggest problem with the Coronavirus is that you can't deplatform it from Twitter when it does things you don't like...

    Replies: @wren, @trelane, @JimDandy, @Dieter Kief, @John Burns, Gettysburg Partisan, @UK, @Forbes, @dfordoom

    Well, I’ve often pointed out the negative consequences of having a country run by its Ministry of Propaganda.

    That’s one of the truest and most important points you’ve ever made.

  327. @Anonymous
    @Boethiuss

    Nancy Pelosi became Minority Whip on
    October 11, 2001.

    The "PATRIOT Act" rescinding much of the U.S. Constitution was signed into law on
    October 26, 2001.

    Replies: @Boethiuss

    Nancy Pelosi became Minority Whip on
    October 11, 2001.

    The “PATRIOT Act” rescinding much of the U.S. Constitution was signed into law on
    October 26, 2001.

    I’m not sure exactly what this is intended to be responsive to, but what I was talking about was Mrs. Pelosi’s intervention with the Senate Democrats a week or so ago, where they, the Senate D’s refused to debate a bill they had just been negotiation with the Senate R’s the couple of days prior.

    In its place, she tried to advance a Democratic wish list that had no support, and quickly retreated to an agreement between Sen Schumer and Secretary of the Treasury Mnuchin (and presumably McConnell was involved as well).

  328. @J.Ross
    Diversity is our strength. After a few more years of this, we'll all be terribly strong about something.
    https://www.breitbart.com/europe/2020/03/27/migrant-attacks-italian-baker-told-wait-outside/
    tldr the "refugees" are reacting to social distance orders with physical violence and screaming about "racism."

    Replies: @J.Ross

    Follow up to this: a French administrator says there is no governmental ability to enforce quarantine on “refugees” and that the government should not even try.
    (Sure would be nice if we have some kind of boundaries going around the whole country, in that case.)
    https://summit.news/2020/03/27/french-official-says-quarantine-should-not-be-enforced-in-migrant-areas-to-avoid-riots/

  329. Trump has been completely realistic and in command – he understands supply lines. Friends of mine in Finland tell me that he is amazing…a great leader. They tell me there is not a single leader in any other country in Europe who is as forthright as Trump – this is also, a bi-partisan group of friends who told me this.

    Mannerheim, while flawed in some ways, was integral to Finland’s Independence because he understood supply lines: relief soldiers, food, drink, nurses (Finnish women mobilized like no other group of women in the history of the world; also, as cooks – food is The most important in a warzone) weapons getting in. And, everyone here, knows that Finns invented the Molotov cocktail in WW2 because they did not have enough weapons and ordnance.

    My grandmother and most Finnish women, grew gardens, tended to their farms, businesses, ran the day-to-day in the public sector. They used their bed sheets to sew white (camouflage) suits for the men…and the horses (drew the food carts, howitzers – WW2) and ordnance. The white bed sheet coats (complete with zippers/ties) of the horses is something to see in the Winter War Museum in Helsinki.

    • Replies: @Neil Templeton
    @Lagertha

    I used to have a book, loaned out and lost years ago, about the effect in technology the Karelian immigrants, few as they were, had on the Scots-Irish pioneer culture of America. Cabins, slash-and-burn agriculture, temporary hunting shelters, they had it figured out. The Karelians were woodsmen.

  330. @onetwothree
    @Achmed E. Newman

    The comments on zerohedge are maybe the worst on the internet. Just pure copy-paste rubbish.

    Replies: @Achmed E. Newman, @Dano, @Twodees Partain

    Yes, but the USED to be hilarious! Really great stuff but I think one Leftist dork has about forty aliases and has ruined it.

  331. @Anonymous
    @Dano

    Instead of typing a whole paragraph just to say "that's dumb," why not share your specific issues with what Alexander wrote?

    Replies: @Dano

    Well It would take a lot of space and bore people but here is one: You cannot get a loan of $100 million with out SUBSTANTIAL equity in the project, at least $15 million, and CLEAR and DEMONSTRABLE expertise and experience in that type real estate.

  332. @MEH 0910
    @Federalist

    Do you understand the responsibility that Steve bears for other peoples lives? Steve singlehandedly elected Trump president.

    https://nymag.com/intelligencer/2017/04/steve-sailer-invented-identity-politics-for-the-alt-right.html

    Replies: @ScarletNumber, @Dano

    Ah, that’s when Steve was THINKING…

  333. @William Badwhite
    @Pericles


    Also, adding an infatuation with Hillary to your hatred of Trump is rather disappointing.
     
    Yes. The idea that Hillary Clinton is both intelligent and competent is on par with believing in Santa Claus. (Cue Paleo Liberal to tell us how she finished first in her class in law school). Virtually everything she's touched has failed. She's like King Midas in reverse. She failed the DC bar exam. The woman couldn't get health care reform through a Democratic House. Her arrogant buffoonery then cost the Dems the House, something previously thought impossible. Her stint as a Senator included nothing of importance. Her time as Sec'y of State was a debacle. She couldn't beat Bernie Sanders legitimately so had to use her typically ham-fisted methods to wrest the nomination, then insulted half the country and while ignoring the advice of her husband, managed to lose to Donald Trump. And of course the Russia hoax came out of her campaign.

    Virtually everything she's had in life has been handed to her, and she in turn has dropped it. It is hard to think of a politician more useless and incompetent while also being such a vile human being. And yet there are STILL people like jabbering foreigner Peter A that labor under the delusion she'd have been a great President.

    Replies: @ben tillman, @Nicholas Stix, @Achmed E. Newman, @Reg Cæsar

    But on the flip side of the coin, she got fired from the Watergate committee…

    … so there!

  334. @anon
    @BB753

    Beale created a crazy mixture of Calvinism (more precisely, Arminianism)

    Laughter s healthy, especially in stressful times, thanks for a good one!

    Replies: @BB753

    You’re welcome, but I didn’t make up the term Arminianism.
    https://www.britannica.com/topic/Arminianism

    • Replies: @anon
    @BB753

    You’re welcome, but I didn’t make up the term Arminianism.

    I know what Arminianism is, because I know who Jacobus Arminius was.
    I also know who John Calvin was.

    Thanks again for the laugh!

  335. @ben tillman
    @Achmed E. Newman


    If I knew Trump was FDR, I’d have neither gone to a rally nor voted for him. We need another FDR like 330 million holes in the head.
     
    I couldn't agree more. And Ditto for Johnson and Wilson.

    Replies: @Achmed E. Newman

    I was about to mention those very two scumbags in that comment, Ben, but I shortened it up.

  336. @Joe Stalin
    @Anon

    "Of course most people, including most Americans, have never heard of Palau."

    https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=46m3lr6MJ_E
    https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=Aquu3w12JnU

    Replies: @PiltdownMan

    “Of course most people, including most Americans, have never heard of Palau.”

    Most people also don’t know how to pronounce the name of its capital city, Ngerulmud.

    PS: Nor do I. I heard of it just last week, while googling information about atomic tests in the Pacific.

  337. @Boethiuss
    @education realist


    Like many here, I completely disagree with Steve on this and have found it interesting how the skeptic community has broken up over this. Steve. JayMan, Claire Lehmann seem to think it’s fine to bankrupt the economy in the name of “Just One Less Death”, whereas Philippe, Ben SixSmith and others were worried at first but now worry we’ve overreacted. Others, like me, are pretty appalled at things like Claire Lehmann, High Priestess of Open Thought, approving Medium pulling that article, or Steve saying hey, we’ve already done the damage so let’s do more until we can see some benefit. And I’ve literally blocked Jay, he’s so obnoxious.
     
    I want to agree with you and I suspect in some world I do but right now the tradeoffs are so nebulous that it's hard to make intelligent choices.

    We can say that those teenagers going to spring break at Daytona was really stupid and that sort of thing ought to be banned or substantially discouraged. And at the same time, we should still have a little more freedom of action to work, and earn a living and do some important social activities. The thing is, I don't think anybody has a real good handle on where the dividing line ought to be, even for that matter to accurately describe the nature of the tradeoffs.

    Sometime, say in a week or a month maybe, we ought to have that. One way to read Steve, as I do (though not especially carefully), is to say that we shouldn't open up again until that happens. And to that extent, I think he's right.

    Replies: @education realist, @Neil Templeton

    We can say that those teenagers going to spring break at Daytona was really stupid and that sort of thing ought to be banned or substantially discouraged.

    Most everyone is going to get it eventually, the young people know this. Some of us older folk will die, we know that. Rise to the occasion, or not. In this case, the kids are right. We can suppress the fire this time, but next time the fire will be larger. Better learn to live with fire, for it is our inheritance, our virtue, and our curse.

  338. @Lagertha
    Trump has been completely realistic and in command - he understands supply lines. Friends of mine in Finland tell me that he is amazing...a great leader. They tell me there is not a single leader in any other country in Europe who is as forthright as Trump - this is also, a bi-partisan group of friends who told me this.

    Mannerheim, while flawed in some ways, was integral to Finland's Independence because he understood supply lines: relief soldiers, food, drink, nurses (Finnish women mobilized like no other group of women in the history of the world; also, as cooks - food is The most important in a warzone) weapons getting in. And, everyone here, knows that Finns invented the Molotov cocktail in WW2 because they did not have enough weapons and ordnance.

    My grandmother and most Finnish women, grew gardens, tended to their farms, businesses, ran the day-to-day in the public sector. They used their bed sheets to sew white (camouflage) suits for the men...and the horses (drew the food carts, howitzers - WW2) and ordnance. The white bed sheet coats (complete with zippers/ties) of the horses is something to see in the Winter War Museum in Helsinki.

    Replies: @Neil Templeton

    I used to have a book, loaned out and lost years ago, about the effect in technology the Karelian immigrants, few as they were, had on the Scots-Irish pioneer culture of America. Cabins, slash-and-burn agriculture, temporary hunting shelters, they had it figured out. The Karelians were woodsmen.

  339. HA says:
    @candid_observer
    Maybe a bit OT, but one thing that's pissed me off is how the Chinese government did so little to prevent this virus from popping up.

    It's obvious enough that the eating practices of segments of Chinese society brought on this virus, and many others.

    How could the Chinese government neglect to put an end to those practices? We're talking about one of the most oppressively authoritarian governments in the world. They couldn't put that authoritarianism to good use where it is truly needed, by aggressive efforts to clamp down on these practices? They go out of their way to change just about everything else in Chinese society by harsh punishment, but they leave bat soup untouched?

    What an egregious squandering of one of the few positive sides of authoritarianism.

    Replies: @Anon, @HA

    “How could the Chinese government neglect to put an end to those practices? We’re talking about one of the most oppressively authoritarian governments in the world. They couldn’t put that authoritarianism to good use where it is truly needed, by aggressive efforts to clamp down on these practices?”

    There’s a “traditional Chinese medicine” loophole in the exotic meat trade. So even though bat soup is technically off the menu, but if it increases the efficacy of bear gall or tiger penis, then it’s fine.

    India and China generate millions locally with so-called traditional medicine, and have bribed the WHO into granting it an imprimatur, over the objection of actual Hippocratic doctors. This allows them to expand the market for their quackery internationally, meaning that someday you, too, might have the privilege of shelling out $20 to guzzle down a bottle of ayurvedic cow urine.

    So far, the West’s objections to Chinese attempts to bribe and bend the WHO have amounted to little. And so, here we are.

    • Replies: @MEH 0910
    @HA

    https://twitter.com/HKWORLDCITY/status/1243865641448169474

  340. MSU has covered up a shit ton of stuff from both the football and bball programs, as well. Dantonio was allowed to step away quietly. Izzo, we’ll wait and see.

  341. @Je Suis Omar Mateen
    @Intelligent Dasein

    "Never mind Obama and W, just imagine if Hillary was leading this shitshow. Can you even contemplate what horrors such a fate would encompass?"

    None. Only international news geeks would follow this obscure virus that killed a few thousand frail geezers. America's fakestream media would ignore it for the most part. No shutdowns, no $2 trillion printopaloozas.

    Replies: @Ron Mexico

    You know she would have exploited it in numerous ways for her own enrichment. She just recently crawled out from the 8th Circle to tweet an America First joke. What great comic timing this Demon bitch has. At least she won’t be a Dem veep or any other candidate now.

  342. @njguy73
    @anon

    Good one. But seriously, Doyle Alexander was with the Tigers then, having gone 9-0 down the stretch the previous year. Yeah, they had to give up some Double-A pitcher...

    Replies: @ScarletNumber

    No, the reference was to the pitcher Scott Alexander, who indeed pitched for the Royals in 2016. He is now a Dodger, pitching 3 games in the 2018 World Series. He pitched to a total of 7 batters, getting 4 of them out. He is scheduled to make $875,000 this upcoming season.

  343. @anonguy
    Trump has served his historical purpose, which was to be the epic troll for the national establishment, blue and red.

    Plus, he has inadvertently united the country, at least the part with shred of humanity, behind the notion of not dying for wall street.

    General Strike is rumbling in background, let's see where that goes as we continue to hear crickets from our billionaire class.

    Trump is a tired man now and his mental acuity has slipped. Various theories surrounding his unscheduled WRAMC visit last November seem within realm of credibility.

    Like some small strokes that have left him functional, just a little stubborn and set in his ways. Used to be considered a common consequence of aging.

    He's not of the mental powers he had on campaign trail in 2016, that is obvious to any careful observer IMO.

    His apparent need for all the Dear Leader adulation by subordinates in press conferences is another sign of decline.

    Replies: @Kronos, @Pericles, @TrudeauSux, @William Badwhite, @Escher

    Plus, he has inadvertently united the country, at least the part with shred of humanity, behind the notion of not dying for wall street.

    Really? You still believe that after the multi trillion bailout?

  344. @BB753
    @anon

    You're welcome, but I didn't make up the term Arminianism.
    https://www.britannica.com/topic/Arminianism

    Replies: @anon

    You’re welcome, but I didn’t make up the term Arminianism.

    I know what Arminianism is, because I know who Jacobus Arminius was.
    I also know who John Calvin was.

    Thanks again for the laugh!

  345. @education realist
    @Ron Unz

    Geez, I don't know: what in the world is a Ron Unz? I'm the only one of the three of us using a non-name. Philippe is a PhD candidate at Cornell; Ben is an English writer who lives in Poland. Both are plenty smart.

    As for the "oh, you must not know math"--Sigh. How tedious and unoriginal. And how boring an argument.

    I freely admit that for a math teacher, I'm an excellent English major. But then,math is my *weak* subject and I score in the 96+ percentile, so I'm kind of figuring that's more than smart enough to grasp your rather ordinary point. It's certainly obvious my verbal skills are a shit ton better than yours, so we can call it even.

    So focus hard, and see if you can grasp this: There's a big distance between doing nothing and killing the economy. There's plenty of room to reduce transmission without sending everyone home. Figure that killing the economy results in X deaths, and doing less than killing the economy but still reducing transmission results in X + Y deaths.

    Issue is size of Y. Your graph is irrelevant. Everybody gets the graph, Ron. Nobody likes pedants.

    Replies: @Boethiuss, @Mr McKenna, @dfordoom, @Corvinus

    So focus hard, and see if you can grasp this: There’s a big distance between doing nothing and killing the economy. There’s plenty of room to reduce transmission without sending everyone home.

    It’s really depressing to see people dividing up into two armed camps over this. There’s too much either/or thinking. The idea that there are only two choices:

    1) Let lots of old people die so the economy keeps booming.

    2) Totally destroy the economy rather than let one 80-year-old die.

    is complete nonsense.

    There are lots of things that can provide a high level of protection for the sick and the old and the vulnerable without trashing the economy. Some of these things will involve inconvenience but putting up with inconvenience is better than having the economy crash or lots of people dying.

    There are a few idiots on both ends of the scale. But most sane people should be able to agree on sensible compromises. It’s surely pretty obvious that if the economy crashes and doesn’t bounce back then the sick and the old and the vulnerable will be in an even worse situation. So some compromise is unavoidable.

  346. @Mr McKenna
    @Dave Pinsen

    No issue with your points, but keep in mind that GWB's approval rating was relatively mediocre until the day after 9/11. But what had we really learned that day about GWB, aside from the fact that he and the government had failed to keep this country safe? His approval rating shot up to ~90%.

    https://www.jstor.org/stable/3792592?seq=1

    Replies: @UK, @Joseph Doaks, @dfordoom

    But what had we really learned that day about GWB, aside from the fact that he and the government had failed to keep this country safe? His approval rating shot up to ~90%.

    It seems like the public’s initial response in a crisis is to rally around the current leader, even if the current leader is the one who caused the crisis.

    If the crisis continues they start to get disillusioned that the guy to whom they were looking for strong leadership turns out to have no idea what he’s doing (like LBJ in Vietnam).

    If an election were held tomorrow Trump would win in a landslide. But by November, unless Trump really lucks out, the voters could be out for his blood.

  347. @William Badwhite
    @Pericles


    Also, adding an infatuation with Hillary to your hatred of Trump is rather disappointing.
     
    Yes. The idea that Hillary Clinton is both intelligent and competent is on par with believing in Santa Claus. (Cue Paleo Liberal to tell us how she finished first in her class in law school). Virtually everything she's touched has failed. She's like King Midas in reverse. She failed the DC bar exam. The woman couldn't get health care reform through a Democratic House. Her arrogant buffoonery then cost the Dems the House, something previously thought impossible. Her stint as a Senator included nothing of importance. Her time as Sec'y of State was a debacle. She couldn't beat Bernie Sanders legitimately so had to use her typically ham-fisted methods to wrest the nomination, then insulted half the country and while ignoring the advice of her husband, managed to lose to Donald Trump. And of course the Russia hoax came out of her campaign.

    Virtually everything she's had in life has been handed to her, and she in turn has dropped it. It is hard to think of a politician more useless and incompetent while also being such a vile human being. And yet there are STILL people like jabbering foreigner Peter A that labor under the delusion she'd have been a great President.

    Replies: @ben tillman, @Nicholas Stix, @Achmed E. Newman, @Reg Cæsar

    The idea that Hillary Clinton is both intelligent and competent is on par with believing in Santa Claus.

    She successfully dissuaded a rape victim from reporting the crime, and in such a way as not to be explicit, and thus convictable herself. In other words, she understood “plausible deniability” better than did Richard Nixon.

    I don’t believe Bill told her the extent and details of his crime, only that it was serious enough to have derailed both their ambitions. That was enough to set her in motion.

    Also, Bill knew his victim was compromised, which suggests she was scoped out by one of the dicks on his AG staff. Casing the joint, in other words.

    Rape had a statute of limitations in 1979 Arkansas. Did obstruction of justice?

  348. @education realist
    @Peter Akuleyev

    Wrong. England did nothing. Doing nothing would allow uncontrolled spread of the virus, which is clearly not what I'm advocating. But whatever.

    Replies: @Peter Akuleyev

    You are wrong that the original UK plan was to “do nothing “, you sound like Jeremy Corbyn, but whatever.

    As I said, you are advocating the Swedish model. Kids in Sweden below 9th grade still go to school, shops are open, large gatherings banned but not small ones, etc. Austria and Germany tried this for a few days but reconsidered.

    We will know in a few weeks if you are right, keep your eye on Sweden and see how they do. Wouldn’t be the first time Swedes were smarter than everyone else in a crisis.

    • Replies: @Peter Akuleyev
    @Peter Akuleyev

    More discussion of Sweden here:

    https://reason.com/2020/03/25/despite-coronavirus-sweden-refuses-to-shutter-businesses-and-limit-gatherings/

    One takeaway from Corona may be that HBD matters. More disciplined organized societies (East Asians, Nordics) instinctively respond better to pandemics. The Swedes don't need the full lock down approach because people are more careful in general. If Swedes are told to practice social distancing they don't go to spring break orgies, don't host large weddings or gather 60 people in a room for choir practice.

    Replies: @e, @Agathoklis

  349. @Pericles
    @Peter Akuleyev


    Clinton would have at least left competent professional administrators in place, there would have been a pandemia response plan and the CDC and FDA would not be run by bootlickers trying to curry favor with the Leader.

     

    Lol, we know you hate hate hate Trump with a parodic zeal but, please, you need a sense of proportion and realism in what you write. Also, adding an infatuation with Hillary to your hatred of Trump is rather disappointing.

    Replies: @William Badwhite, @Peter Akuleyev

    Defend Trump on his merits, making up ad hominem insinuations is not an argument.

    • Replies: @Pericles
    @Peter Akuleyev



    Clinton would have at least left competent professional administrators in place, there would have been a pandemia response plan and the CDC and FDA would not be run by bootlickers trying to curry favor with the Leader. Trump decided to destroy the Federal government precisely at the moment we actually needed it for something.

     

    Lol, we know you hate hate hate Trump with a parodic zeal but, please, you need a sense of proportion and realism in what you write. Also, adding an infatuation with Hillary to your hatred of Trump is rather disappointing.

     

    Defend Trump on his merits, making up ad hominem insinuations is not an argument.

     

    I'm not even defending Trump. Does it seem to you like that was the point? I can walk you through what I wrote if you prefer.

    Replies: @Peter Akuleyev

  350. @Peter Akuleyev
    @Pericles

    Defend Trump on his merits, making up ad hominem insinuations is not an argument.

    Replies: @Pericles

    Clinton would have at least left competent professional administrators in place, there would have been a pandemia response plan and the CDC and FDA would not be run by bootlickers trying to curry favor with the Leader. Trump decided to destroy the Federal government precisely at the moment we actually needed it for something.

    Lol, we know you hate hate hate Trump with a parodic zeal but, please, you need a sense of proportion and realism in what you write. Also, adding an infatuation with Hillary to your hatred of Trump is rather disappointing.

    Defend Trump on his merits, making up ad hominem insinuations is not an argument.

    I’m not even defending Trump. Does it seem to you like that was the point? I can walk you through what I wrote if you prefer.

    • Replies: @Peter Akuleyev
    @Pericles

    Competence in the Federal Government has very little to do with Clinton or Trump as personalities. The Federal Government would have worked better under Clinton because the Democrats aren't committed to destroying it, whereas the Federalist/Libertarian wing of the GOP, the people who really dictate policy at this point, are committed to destroying it.

    There are essentially three philosophies in America

    1. The traditional Republican Hoover/Eisenhower/Bush I philosophy - limited government, but run by hypercompetent professionals and able to intervene when necessary

    2. The traditional Democratic philosophy - expanded government, providing handouts to minorities and other people unable to cope but still relying on professionalism in key posts - State, DoD, NHS etc. Note that Democrats traditionally stick incompetent minorities and relatives in government jobs where they may be able to steal but not do that much harm.

    3. The Tea Party/Federalist/Libertarian model - destroy the Federal Government and loot as much of it as possible while doing so. This has been the Trump model, maybe not Trump's intention, very possibly because Trump depends on the Mnuchins and McConnell's of the world and also because the competent GOP types either burned their bridges with Trump early on and/or went to get more lucrative work in the private sector. Whatever the reason, Trump is relying mostly on lackeys, losers and outright thieves and the only competence in the GOP is in the Senate where Mitch continues to actually dictate policy.

    Until Trump, Republicans were better at governing, true, but no longer. In terms of recent performance I would say Bush I>Reagan>Bill Clinton>Nixon>Obama>Bush II>Carter>Trump

    So yes, you can still hate Hillary but realize that it would be hard to imagine a more incompetent response under almost any potential President than Trump has managed to pull off. But hey, the US is about to be world leader in Corona virus deaths, so that's something.

    Replies: @Pericles

  351. Anonymous[266] • Disclaimer says:
    @Nicholas Stix
    @William Badwhite

    In 1992, there was good reason to be infatuated with Madame Hillary--she was hot! With time, we were left with a chubby, wrinkled, vicious, drunken, foul-mouthed criminal.

    Replies: @Boethiuss, @anon, @Harry Baldwin, @Anonymous

    You are apparently severely visually impaired. She was unattractive at best then and repulsive now.

    I said in 2015 she should have found out what plastic surgeon Debbie Harry went to and went to him. Wouldn’t have made her good looking but could have brought her back to baseline dumpy instead of a cross between Phyllis Diller and Lemmy from Motörhead in drag.

    Hmmmm. My fone added the umlaut on its own! Nifty. It is ironic though that “umlaut” doesn’t use one, much as the”eszett” doesn’t either.

    • Replies: @Jonathan Mason
    @Anonymous

    You are apparently severely visually impaired. She was unattractive at best then and repulsive now.

    Hillary, like many middle-aged women who are wealthy, was able to make herself look fairly presentable for public appearances. Money can do that, it pays for expensive hair styling and tinting, dental work, contact lenses, makeup, nice clothes and shoes, and so on. What it cannot do is give someone with a dumpy body and thick ankles a hot body. It cannot deceive the person who wakes up next to her in the morning.

    https://thefederalist.com/wp-content/uploads/2016/08/billclinton-998x608.jpg

    Replies: @black sea

  352. @Jonathan Mason

    Either way, some governors (Tate Reeves in Mississippi, Ron DeSantis in Florida) appear to be taking their cues from Trump.
     
    I don't know about that. I think governor DeSantis is his own man and is making decisions based on the peculiar nature of Florida's population, population distribution, geography, climate, and so on.

    Two days ago he sent a letter requesting that Trump declare a Major Emergency in Florida so as to activate FEMA relief.

    https://miami.cbslocal.com/wp-content/uploads/sites/15909786/2020/03/desantis-covid19-declaration.pdf

    DeSantis also issued an executive order Monday requiring anyone arriving on a flight from the New York City area to self-quarantine for two weeks. It is not clear what he is doing about cars with New York plates arriving on I-95. Surely a state of emergency trumps stuff like the interstate commerce clause?

    Trump has not been slow to declare states of emergency before, for example in the southern border states of the US when it was believed that the US was losing effective control of territory due to incursions from Mexicans and central Americans.

    Replies: @Jonathan Mason, @Pericles

    Maybe Trump should declare an emergency and lock down superspreading New York and California until after the election. They get to live and they can vote in 2024 or 2032 or something. You know, when the danger has passed.

    Also, speaking of CA, Dianne “disloyal opposition and inside trader” Feinstein in jail when?

  353. @Manfred Arcane
    @Corvinus

    Steve, look out: When Corvinus is complimenting you, it's a sure sign you're starting to jump the shark. Don't spook yourself so badly over the Coronavirus that you get the Corvirus.

    Replies: @Pericles

    When one is getting a strange new respect from Corvinus, it’s time to take stock of one’s actions.

  354. @Peter Akuleyev
    @education realist

    You are wrong that the original UK plan was to “do nothing “, you sound like Jeremy Corbyn, but whatever.

    As I said, you are advocating the Swedish model. Kids in Sweden below 9th grade still go to school, shops are open, large gatherings banned but not small ones, etc. Austria and Germany tried this for a few days but reconsidered.

    We will know in a few weeks if you are right, keep your eye on Sweden and see how they do. Wouldn’t be the first time Swedes were smarter than everyone else in a crisis.

    Replies: @Peter Akuleyev

    More discussion of Sweden here:

    https://reason.com/2020/03/25/despite-coronavirus-sweden-refuses-to-shutter-businesses-and-limit-gatherings/

    One takeaway from Corona may be that HBD matters. More disciplined organized societies (East Asians, Nordics) instinctively respond better to pandemics. The Swedes don’t need the full lock down approach because people are more careful in general. If Swedes are told to practice social distancing they don’t go to spring break orgies, don’t host large weddings or gather 60 people in a room for choir practice.

    • Replies: @e
    @Peter Akuleyev

    High trust societies remain more cohesive in times of stress.
    As the Left has grown more looney every day, I have lost trust in many of my fellow citizens who think like 12 year old girls.

    , @Agathoklis
    @Peter Akuleyev

    Simplistic theory. How does that explain Greece's 'success' so far?

    Replies: @Peter Akuleyev

  355. Joe Biden has been very quiet during this pandemic. He trusts his lead and probably his staff tells him to shutup so he does not seem dumb. I am not sure will the democrats appreciate his act or will they see behind it.

  356. @Anonymous
    @Nicholas Stix

    You are apparently severely visually impaired. She was unattractive at best then and repulsive now.

    I said in 2015 she should have found out what plastic surgeon Debbie Harry went to and went to him. Wouldn’t have made her good looking but could have brought her back to baseline dumpy instead of a cross between Phyllis Diller and Lemmy from Motörhead in drag.

    Hmmmm. My fone added the umlaut on its own! Nifty. It is ironic though that “umlaut” doesn’t use one, much as the”eszett” doesn’t either.

    Replies: @Jonathan Mason

    You are apparently severely visually impaired. She was unattractive at best then and repulsive now.

    Hillary, like many middle-aged women who are wealthy, was able to make herself look fairly presentable for public appearances. Money can do that, it pays for expensive hair styling and tinting, dental work, contact lenses, makeup, nice clothes and shoes, and so on. What it cannot do is give someone with a dumpy body and thick ankles a hot body. It cannot deceive the person who wakes up next to her in the morning.

    • Replies: @black sea
    @Jonathan Mason

    I wouldn't go so far as to say "hot," but Hillary Clinton actually looked better at 45 than at 25. Which is saying something, particularly for a woman.

    Somebody really did one hell of a makeover, but of course her personality was beyond anyone's talents..

    Replies: @Jack D

  357. @Peter Akuleyev
    @Mr McKenna

    That is the weakest defense of Trump imaginable. No one is claiming that Trump was saying the virus does not exist, he was saying that the Democrats talking about a coming pandemic were perpetrating a hoax. Do you think he was right? Of course, there are still millions of Americans who think the response to a virus is a hoax. Many of them frequent these forums. Trump to this day continues to waffle and talks about the flu being just as lethal and car crashes and whatever.

    To be fair, in Europe the situation is often reversed. Salvini in Italy was the strongest voice for taking strong measures back in early February when the Left was still diddling around, and plenty of Marxists in France are still convinced the whole thing is a plot to keep demonstrators off the streets and hurt the workers. Orban has shut his entire country down. Putin, nota bene, wears full protection when he visits hospitals and practices social distancing, he seems to take the virus very seriously.

    Replies: @Biggest Shoe, @Mr McKenna, @e

    Try again–Trump said the Dems who were claiming Trump was doing “nothing” about a coming pandemic were perpetrating a hoax for he had, against their pc screams, banned travel from China to the U.S.

  358. @Peter Akuleyev
    @Peter Akuleyev

    More discussion of Sweden here:

    https://reason.com/2020/03/25/despite-coronavirus-sweden-refuses-to-shutter-businesses-and-limit-gatherings/

    One takeaway from Corona may be that HBD matters. More disciplined organized societies (East Asians, Nordics) instinctively respond better to pandemics. The Swedes don't need the full lock down approach because people are more careful in general. If Swedes are told to practice social distancing they don't go to spring break orgies, don't host large weddings or gather 60 people in a room for choir practice.

    Replies: @e, @Agathoklis

    High trust societies remain more cohesive in times of stress.
    As the Left has grown more looney every day, I have lost trust in many of my fellow citizens who think like 12 year old girls.

  359. @Jonathan Mason
    @Anonymous

    You are apparently severely visually impaired. She was unattractive at best then and repulsive now.

    Hillary, like many middle-aged women who are wealthy, was able to make herself look fairly presentable for public appearances. Money can do that, it pays for expensive hair styling and tinting, dental work, contact lenses, makeup, nice clothes and shoes, and so on. What it cannot do is give someone with a dumpy body and thick ankles a hot body. It cannot deceive the person who wakes up next to her in the morning.

    https://thefederalist.com/wp-content/uploads/2016/08/billclinton-998x608.jpg

    Replies: @black sea

    I wouldn’t go so far as to say “hot,” but Hillary Clinton actually looked better at 45 than at 25. Which is saying something, particularly for a woman.

    Somebody really did one hell of a makeover, but of course her personality was beyond anyone’s talents..

    • Replies: @Jack D
    @black sea

    For proof, here is Hillary at Wellesley in her early 20's:

    https://img.washingtonpost.com/rf/image_480w/2010-2019/WashingtonPost/2016/08/10/Others/Images/2016-08-10/GettyImages-505942271470856930.jpg

    It's really hard to understand what ladies' man Bill Clinton ever saw in her. Normally, almost any (non-obese, physically intact) fresh faced 20 something year old female has a certain appeal to any man (even family man Jimmy Carter lusted in his heart) but looking at Hillary doesn't really make you think, "I'd like to get in her pants!"

    Replies: @black sea, @R.G. Camara, @Anonymous

  360. @black sea
    @Jonathan Mason

    I wouldn't go so far as to say "hot," but Hillary Clinton actually looked better at 45 than at 25. Which is saying something, particularly for a woman.

    Somebody really did one hell of a makeover, but of course her personality was beyond anyone's talents..

    Replies: @Jack D

    For proof, here is Hillary at Wellesley in her early 20’s:

    It’s really hard to understand what ladies’ man Bill Clinton ever saw in her. Normally, almost any (non-obese, physically intact) fresh faced 20 something year old female has a certain appeal to any man (even family man Jimmy Carter lusted in his heart) but looking at Hillary doesn’t really make you think, “I’d like to get in her pants!”

    • Replies: @black sea
    @Jack D

    The stripes on those pants seem to converge on some region best left unexplored.

    , @R.G. Camara
    @Jack D

    It's been long documented that Hillary & Bill were two sociopaths who knew each other's political value to the other from the start---thus why they joined early at the hip. This wasn't love or lust, but basically a marriage of business and convenience. She was the best chief of staff ever with no charisma, and he was horny charming pol who needed someone to hide his bimbo eruptions and other scandals.

    That said, Bill, like most commie men, has very low standards for women, so ugly Hillary was probably enough for him to get off the first few times, and then she had no problem with him catting around. I mean, most of the women he's been with are pretty far down the ladder looks wise for a man of his stature. Fat Monica Lewinksy, anyone? Seriously, he was a lefty wing president, and he thought that common tubby chick was worth banging? Sad!

    Trump, in contrast, has only banged A+ meat in its prime.

    , @Anonymous
    @Jack D

    She was a canklebunny even then.

  361. @Jack D
    @black sea

    For proof, here is Hillary at Wellesley in her early 20's:

    https://img.washingtonpost.com/rf/image_480w/2010-2019/WashingtonPost/2016/08/10/Others/Images/2016-08-10/GettyImages-505942271470856930.jpg

    It's really hard to understand what ladies' man Bill Clinton ever saw in her. Normally, almost any (non-obese, physically intact) fresh faced 20 something year old female has a certain appeal to any man (even family man Jimmy Carter lusted in his heart) but looking at Hillary doesn't really make you think, "I'd like to get in her pants!"

    Replies: @black sea, @R.G. Camara, @Anonymous

    The stripes on those pants seem to converge on some region best left unexplored.

  362. @Peter Akuleyev
    @Peter Akuleyev

    More discussion of Sweden here:

    https://reason.com/2020/03/25/despite-coronavirus-sweden-refuses-to-shutter-businesses-and-limit-gatherings/

    One takeaway from Corona may be that HBD matters. More disciplined organized societies (East Asians, Nordics) instinctively respond better to pandemics. The Swedes don't need the full lock down approach because people are more careful in general. If Swedes are told to practice social distancing they don't go to spring break orgies, don't host large weddings or gather 60 people in a room for choir practice.

    Replies: @e, @Agathoklis

    Simplistic theory. How does that explain Greece’s ‘success’ so far?

    • Replies: @Peter Akuleyev
    @Agathoklis

    Who pays attention to Greece? Has Greece been successful? Maybe Greece's failure to have successful football teams (like Italy and Spain) and lack of high income ski vacationers prevented an early spread? Since culturally Greeks are a lot like Italians in terms of invading other people's personal space and having a lot of multi-generational contact it does seem odd if the virus is not devastating Greece the way it is other Mediterranean countries.

  363. @Dave Pinsen
    @R.G. Camara

    Pence is a Dr. Early type.

    https://twitter.com/dpinsen/status/1241065760233062406?s=20

    Replies: @Corvinus

    Based on your experiences, sure, the archetypes fit. For other people, not so much. To each, their own.

    http://www.physicianleadership.com/articles/physician_archetypes.htm

    • Replies: @William Badwhite
    @Corvinus

    No. You're wrong.

    Replies: @Corvinus

  364. @BB753
    @JimDandy

    You can't do that. Boomers still believe they're young. They won't comply if you call them "elderly".

    Replies: @JimDandy, @tbmcc

    Let me tell you something about “Boomers” I wasn’t around when they passed the 14th amendment, nor the 19th. I was too young to vote when they passed the “civil rights” act and the ’65 immigration act. I didn’t start the f-n fire. So just quit.

  365. @Louis Renault
    @trelane

    Who was it that used to drive Senator Feinstein around? How long has China been infiltrating 'elite' universities here?
    https://www.justice.gov/opa/pr/harvard-university-professor-and-two-chinese-nationals-charged-three-separate-china-related

    Replies: @Alice, @danand, @Twodees Partain

    Yeah, when I read about Difi’s Chinese driver, I thought, “Typical politician. Even the guy who pumps gas knows that Chinese can’t drive”.

  366. @onetwothree
    @Achmed E. Newman

    The comments on zerohedge are maybe the worst on the internet. Just pure copy-paste rubbish.

    Replies: @Achmed E. Newman, @Dano, @Twodees Partain

    That describes the Tyler articles as well.

  367. @R.G. Camara
    @Coemgen

    Pence is one of those sober, somber, boring Washington-speakers that Trump cannot be. This was precisely the sort of situation Trump needed him for; while Trump projects excitement onto people (for good or for ill), Pence projects calm stoic boringness and yet also a well-informed manner, while Trump largely seems to be improv.

    Trump got Pence for the gravitas needed for bad situations where Trump's excitement might be a hindrance. In a crisis, you want a boring, low-key guy as one of the public faces, because everyone calms down.

    Replies: @Dave Pinsen, @Anonymous, @Unladen Swallow, @Twodees Partain

    Gravitas? To me Pence always looks as though he’s having a gas attack and is trying to suppress its expression.

  368. @Anon
    OT: Boomer era musician trying to be relevant. Bob Dylan releases 17-minute song about the JFK assassination.

    https://variety.com/2020/music/news/bob-dylan-releases-17-minute-song-jfk-kennedy-assassination-murder-most-foul-1203546713/

    I can see why young people are unimpressed by Dylan and his ilk. JFK's death was hot news 57 years ago.

    Replies: @ScarletNumber

    I can see why young people are unimpressed by Dylan and his ilk.

    Dylan is a much better song writer than performer. It took Jimi Hendrix to turn his lyrics into a classic, for instance.

    I didn’t know what Hurricane was about until the movie came out, and the guy from was New Jersey! The song was from 1975 while the movie was from 1999.

  369. @Federalist

    So when there is bad news, don’t expect him to convey very vividly what it is.

    Your health may depend upon you keeping this in mind.
     
    For Christ's sake. Could you be any more melodramatic? Stop being a cowardly old woman and live your life for however long you have left.

    Replies: @MEH 0910, @David Davenport, @MEH 0910

  370. @HA
    @candid_observer

    "How could the Chinese government neglect to put an end to those practices? We’re talking about one of the most oppressively authoritarian governments in the world. They couldn’t put that authoritarianism to good use where it is truly needed, by aggressive efforts to clamp down on these practices?"

    There's a "traditional Chinese medicine" loophole in the exotic meat trade. So even though bat soup is technically off the menu, but if it increases the efficacy of bear gall or tiger penis, then it's fine.

    India and China generate millions locally with so-called traditional medicine, and have bribed the WHO into granting it an imprimatur, over the objection of actual Hippocratic doctors. This allows them to expand the market for their quackery internationally, meaning that someday you, too, might have the privilege of shelling out $20 to guzzle down a bottle of ayurvedic cow urine.

    So far, the West's objections to Chinese attempts to bribe and bend the WHO have amounted to little. And so, here we are.

    Replies: @MEH 0910

  371. @Pericles
    @Peter Akuleyev



    Clinton would have at least left competent professional administrators in place, there would have been a pandemia response plan and the CDC and FDA would not be run by bootlickers trying to curry favor with the Leader. Trump decided to destroy the Federal government precisely at the moment we actually needed it for something.

     

    Lol, we know you hate hate hate Trump with a parodic zeal but, please, you need a sense of proportion and realism in what you write. Also, adding an infatuation with Hillary to your hatred of Trump is rather disappointing.

     

    Defend Trump on his merits, making up ad hominem insinuations is not an argument.

     

    I'm not even defending Trump. Does it seem to you like that was the point? I can walk you through what I wrote if you prefer.

    Replies: @Peter Akuleyev

    Competence in the Federal Government has very little to do with Clinton or Trump as personalities. The Federal Government would have worked better under Clinton because the Democrats aren’t committed to destroying it, whereas the Federalist/Libertarian wing of the GOP, the people who really dictate policy at this point, are committed to destroying it.

    There are essentially three philosophies in America

    1. The traditional Republican Hoover/Eisenhower/Bush I philosophy – limited government, but run by hypercompetent professionals and able to intervene when necessary

    2. The traditional Democratic philosophy – expanded government, providing handouts to minorities and other people unable to cope but still relying on professionalism in key posts – State, DoD, NHS etc. Note that Democrats traditionally stick incompetent minorities and relatives in government jobs where they may be able to steal but not do that much harm.

    3. The Tea Party/Federalist/Libertarian model – destroy the Federal Government and loot as much of it as possible while doing so. This has been the Trump model, maybe not Trump’s intention, very possibly because Trump depends on the Mnuchins and McConnell’s of the world and also because the competent GOP types either burned their bridges with Trump early on and/or went to get more lucrative work in the private sector. Whatever the reason, Trump is relying mostly on lackeys, losers and outright thieves and the only competence in the GOP is in the Senate where Mitch continues to actually dictate policy.

    Until Trump, Republicans were better at governing, true, but no longer. In terms of recent performance I would say Bush I>Reagan>Bill Clinton>Nixon>Obama>Bush II>Carter>Trump

    So yes, you can still hate Hillary but realize that it would be hard to imagine a more incompetent response under almost any potential President than Trump has managed to pull off. But hey, the US is about to be world leader in Corona virus deaths, so that’s something.

    • Replies: @Pericles
    @Peter Akuleyev

    However, Trump hasn't tried to destroy the CDC or change their direction. (He hasn't even tried to destroy the institutions that have plotted multiple coups against him. CDC must be some way down the list.) Indeed, the CDC list of activities that someone posted a couple of days back was still as exquisitely useless and twee as one may expect of jaded globohomo government.

    Trump's fault may have been to expect a measure of competence from the vaunted bureaucracy. Alas, their skills and interests are simply not related to the purpose of the institution but to backstabbing, climbing the greasy pole, featherbedding, just as Pournelle's Iron Law would predict. In addition to promoting and funding their allies and pet causes, regrettably at the expense of institutional ability but then sacrifices must sometimes be made.

    Even so, just writing down that President Hillary of course would have scourged the bureaucracy in the cause of effectiveness and competence makes me chuckle in disbelief. She was the ultimate Cathedral candidate sitting on top of a global bribes machine and obviously deeply entwined with the very same complex that we all know so well by now.

  372. @Agathoklis
    @Peter Akuleyev

    Simplistic theory. How does that explain Greece's 'success' so far?

    Replies: @Peter Akuleyev

    Who pays attention to Greece? Has Greece been successful? Maybe Greece’s failure to have successful football teams (like Italy and Spain) and lack of high income ski vacationers prevented an early spread? Since culturally Greeks are a lot like Italians in terms of invading other people’s personal space and having a lot of multi-generational contact it does seem odd if the virus is not devastating Greece the way it is other Mediterranean countries.

  373. @Corvinus
    @Dave Pinsen

    Based on your experiences, sure, the archetypes fit. For other people, not so much. To each, their own.

    http://www.physicianleadership.com/articles/physician_archetypes.htm

    Replies: @William Badwhite

    No. You’re wrong.

    • Replies: @Corvinus
    @William Badwhite

    Actually, I’m quite right.

    I get it, your European-American meetings have been canceled in person, so you’re on edge. But that’s why we have Skype.

  374. @William Badwhite
    @Corvinus

    No. You're wrong.

    Replies: @Corvinus

    Actually, I’m quite right.

    I get it, your European-American meetings have been canceled in person, so you’re on edge. But that’s why we have Skype.

  375. @education realist
    @Ron Unz

    Geez, I don't know: what in the world is a Ron Unz? I'm the only one of the three of us using a non-name. Philippe is a PhD candidate at Cornell; Ben is an English writer who lives in Poland. Both are plenty smart.

    As for the "oh, you must not know math"--Sigh. How tedious and unoriginal. And how boring an argument.

    I freely admit that for a math teacher, I'm an excellent English major. But then,math is my *weak* subject and I score in the 96+ percentile, so I'm kind of figuring that's more than smart enough to grasp your rather ordinary point. It's certainly obvious my verbal skills are a shit ton better than yours, so we can call it even.

    So focus hard, and see if you can grasp this: There's a big distance between doing nothing and killing the economy. There's plenty of room to reduce transmission without sending everyone home. Figure that killing the economy results in X deaths, and doing less than killing the economy but still reducing transmission results in X + Y deaths.

    Issue is size of Y. Your graph is irrelevant. Everybody gets the graph, Ron. Nobody likes pedants.

    Replies: @Boethiuss, @Mr McKenna, @dfordoom, @Corvinus

    You said a lot of words, but you didn’t offer a cogent rebuttal.

  376. @Sam Haysom
    @R.G. Camara

    This is a very interesting analysis but 2016 was probably one of the most talented primary fields in at least my lifetime. Trump just outright destroyed Jeb and then ground down the rest of the candidates. For instance Jeb would locked up the 2012 nomination up by Super Tuesday. No one else would have diagnosed his glass jaw and attacked like Trump did.

    Conversely I think Romney was the one politician that could have ground Trump down and beat him in a primary. Romney’s best poltical skill was his ability to focus an attack and his most dangerous rival during a multi-candidate debate

    Replies: @R.G. Camara

    !Jeb! was only strong if you bought into Neoclown/Neocommunist logic. That might’ve worked in the CLinton/Bush 43/Obama’s 1st term, but by 2012 the holes were obvious to normies, and Trump exposed them and exploited such holes in 2016.