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I don’t know if the following from an unnamed doctor in northern Italy is legit. It is being passed on by Jason Van Schoor, who is an anesthesiologist.

Jason Van Schoor
@jasonvanschoor
From a well respected friend and intensivist/A&E consultant who is currently in northern Italy:
1/ ‘I feel the pressure to give you a quick personal update about what is happening in Italy, and also give some quick direct advice about what you should do.
3:27 PM · Mar 9, 2020·Twitter for iPhone

2/ First, Lumbardy is the most developed region in Italy and it has a extraordinary good healthcare, I have worked in Italy, UK and Aus and don’t make the mistake to think that what is happening is happening in a 3rd world country.

3/ The current situation is difficult to imagine and numbers do not explain things at all. Our hospitals are overwhelmed by Covid-19, they are running 200% capacity

4/ We’ve stopped all routine, all ORs have been converted to ITUs and they are now diverting or not treating all other emergencies like trauma or strokes. There are hundreds of pts with severe resp failure and many of them do not have access to anything above a reservoir mask.

5/ Patients above 65 or younger with comorbidities are not even assessed by ITU, I am not saying not tubed, I’m saying not assessed and no ITU staff attends when they arrest. Staff are working as much as they can but they are starting to get sick and are emotionally overwhelmed.

6/ My friends call me in tears because they see people dying in front of them and they con only offer some oxygen. Ortho and pathologists are being given a leaflet and sent to see patients on NIV. PLEASE STOP, READ THIS AGAIN AND THINK.

7/ We have seen the same pattern in different areas a week apart, and there is no reason that in a few weeks it won’t be the same everywhere, this is the pattern:

8/ 1)A few positive cases, first mild measures, people are told to avoid ED but still hang out in groups, everyone says not to panick
2)Some moderate resp failures and a few severe ones that need tube, but regular access to ED is significantly reduced so everything looks great

9/ 3)Tons of patients with moderate resp failure, that overtime deteriorate to saturate ICUs first, then NIVs, then CPAP hoods, then even O2.
4)Staff gets sick so it gets difficult to cover for shifts, mortality spikes also from all other causes that can’t be treated properly.

10/ Everything about how to treat them is online but the only things that will make a difference are: do not be afraid of massively strict measures to keep people safe,

11/ if governments won’t do this at least keep your family safe, your loved ones with history of cancer or diabetes or any transplant will not be tubed if they need it even if they are young. By safe I mean YOU do not attend them and YOU decide who does and YOU teach them how to.

12/ Another typical attitude is read and listen to people saying things like this and think “that’s bad dude” and then go out for dinner because you think you’ll be safe.

13/ We have seen it, you won’t be if you don’t take it seriously. I really hope it won’t be as bad as here but prepare.

Business idea: Fake IDs for oldsters. “No, really, I’m 59 just like my driver’s license says. Depeche Mode Forever!”

Here’s another thread from Italy, better documented that the one above and less apocalyptic sounding, but still pretty bad:

3/ I will therefore try to convey to people far from our reality what we are living in Bergamo in these days of Covid-19 pandemic. I understand the need not to create panic, but when the message of the dangerousness of what is happening does not reach people I shudder.
4/ I myself watched with some amazement the reorganization of the entire hospital in the past week, when our current enemy was still in the shadows: the wards slowly “emptied”, elective activitieswere interrupted, intensive care were freed up to create as many beds as possible.
5/ All this rapid transformation brought an atmosphere of silence and surreal emptiness to the corridors of the hospital that we did not yet understand, waiting for a war that was yet to begin and that many (including me) were not so sure would ever come with such ferocity.
6/ I still remember my night call a week ago when I was waiting for the results of a swab. When I think about it, my anxiety over one possible case seems almost ridiculous and unjustified, now that I’ve seen what’s happening. Well, the situation now is dramatic to say the least.
7/ The war has literally exploded and battles are uninterrupted day and night. But now that need for beds has arrived in all its drama. One after the other the departments that had been emptied fill up at an impressive pace.
8/ The boards with the names of the patients, of different colours depending on the operating unit, are now all red and instead of surgery you see the diagnosis, which is always the damned same: bilateral interstitial pneumonia.
9/ Now, explain to me which flu virus causes such a rapid drama. [post continues comparing covid19 to flu, link below]. And while there are still people who boast of not being afraid by ignoring directions, protesting because their normal routine is”temporarily” put in crisis,
10/ the epidemiological disaster is taking place. And there are no more surgeons, urologists, orthopedists, we are only doctors who suddenly become part of a single team to face this tsunami that has overwhelmed us.

11/ Cases are multiplying, we arrive at a rate of 15-20 admissions per day all for the same reason. The results of the swabs now come one after the other: positive, positive, positive. Suddenly the E.R. is collapsing.
12/ Reasons for the access always the same: fever and breathing difficulties, fever and cough, respiratory failure. Radiology reports always the same: bilateral interstitial pneumonia, bilateral interstitial pneumonia, bilateral interstitial pneumonia. All to be hospitalized.
13/ Someone already to be intubated and go to intensive care. For others it’s too late… Every ventilator becomes like gold: those in operating theatres that have now suspended their non-urgent activity become intensive care places that did not exist before.
14/ The staff is exhausted. I saw the tiredness on faces that didn’t know what it was despite the already exhausting workloads they had. I saw a solidarity of all of us, who never failed to go to our internist colleagues to ask “what can I do for you now?”
15/ Doctors who move beds and transfer patients, who administer therapies instead of nurses. Nurses with tears in their eyes because we can’t save everyone, and the vital parameters of several patients at the same time reveal an already marked destiny.
16/ There are no more shifts, no more hours. Social life is suspended for us. We no longer see our families for fear of infecting them. Some of us have already become infected despite the protocols.
17/ Some of our colleagues who are infected also have infected relatives and some of their relatives are already struggling between life and death. So be patient, you can’t go to the theatre, museums or the gym. Try to have pity on the myriad of old people you could exterminate.
18/ We just try to make ourselves useful. You should do the same: we influence the life and death of a few dozen people. You with yours, many more. Please share this message. We must spread the word to prevent what is happening here from happening all over Italy.”
20/ I finish by saying that I really don’t understand this war on panic. The only reason I see is mask shortages, but there’s no mask on sale anymore. We don’t have a lot of studies, but is it panic really worse than neglect and carelessness during an epidemic of this sort?

Read it there.

 
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  1. Don’t know how accurate the hospital description is. But thinking I won’t get it, going out and contracting the disease sounds right.

    • Replies: @BenKenobi
  2. Kaz says:

    I don’t know what’s going on in Italy, but my older sis is a doc in Cali and she’s saying nothing significant to note yet other people are just being more cautious in general.

    I really hope this thing can’t handle warm weather + humidity, I’m not a fan of all this panic.

  3. “Well that’s cast rather a gloom over the evening, hasn’t it?”

    • Replies: @JimB
  4. Anon[396] • Disclaimer says:

    This reads exactly like what we saw four weeks ago from Wuhan. But it looks very different from what we are seeing in South Korea or California. Are we witnessing outbreaks of different strains of novel coronavirus?

    • Replies: @Difference maker
    , @El Dato
  5. BenKenobi says:
    @Redneck farmer

    But I’m told the spread of racism and xenophobia is worse than the disease.

  6. Anon[587] • Disclaimer says:

    The humidifier post was borderline: Provoking a run on humidifiers when they would only make sense in public spaces where consumer humidifiers wouldn’t work anyway is mildly irresponsible. But this post goes over the line I think.

    There have been variations of this Italian doctor warning over the past few days, and for what it’s worth, the government of Italy has denied them:

    … and internet rumors spread unsubstantiated — and, the authorities said, false — accounts of overburdened hospitals denying care to anyone over 60…

    https://www.nytimes.com/2020/03/09/world/europe/italy-lockdown-coronavirus.html

    Maybe the government is lying, but this sure fits the urban legend pattern in Jan Harold Brunvand’s folklore anthropology textbook:

    — FOAF (anonymous friend of a friend). You’re taking the word that this anesthesiologist is conveying his acquaintance’s first hand experience. The way FOAF works, it moves back one step every time you try to check it out. A says his friend B had this experience. When asked, B says it’s absolutely true … but it happened to C. And so it goes until around G or H the person denies having said it in the first place.

    — There is specifically a subgenre of urban legends called “Emergency Room Lore.” Brunvand treats it in depth. Medicine is stressful and is one of the most fertile spawning grounds for urban folklore.

    — Constantly developing, morphing stories: This “tirage” story has been around even since early Wuhan days, first in the form of hypotheticals and warnings about what might happen, and now it’s transformed into something that is supposedly true. That’s often how urban legends develop, in a Chinese whispers manner.

    — Urban legends are characterized by built-in self-rebuttal and weird and unnatural levels of confirmatory detail. This is almost an evolutionary adaptation since the stories, to travel far, have to anticipate objections and respond to them in a self-contained package. To me there are too many gratuitous acronyms and too much unnecessary medical jargon here, as it to prove that this is an Italian doctor. And from #7 on the tweets are functioning as responces to anticipated objections: “You doubt this? Well follow the logic of how this could develop. See?”

    — These passages seem unlikely in a doctor to doctor report:

    My friends call me in tears because they see people dying in front of them and they con only offer some oxygen

    Another typical attitude is read and listen to people saying things like this and think “that’s bad dude” and then go out for dinner because you think you’ll be safe.

    • Agree: utu
  7. anon[122] • Disclaimer says:

    So we’re down to ‘death panels’.
    That’s just great.

  8. res says:

    Looking at the weather in Milan, Italy at:
    https://www.wunderground.com/weather/it/milan
    we see the dew point is currently 35 F. Plugging that (as C to get metric output units) into this converter:
    https://www.rotronic.com/en/humidity_measurement-feuchtemessung-mesure_de_l_humidite/humidity-calculator-feuchterechner-mr
    we get a specific humidity of 0.0043 kg/kg (they show 4.34 g/kg). Notice how dry that is on this plot.

    This graphic might give some intuition for how dew point relates to specific humidity. The dew point is the temperature at which the air is saturated so you can read the specific humidity right off this plot (y axis value for the curve at the dew point temperature).
    https://earthscience.stackexchange.com/questions/13511/how-would-i-use-data-to-find-specific-humidity-and-mixing-ratio

    Dividing the y-axis values by 1000 to convert from g/kg to kg/kg lets you compare different dew points to the first plot. For instance, that Milan 35 F dew point is roughly 1.5 C and we can see how that plot point essentially matches the 4.34 g/kg value from above.

    Some more current dew points:
    Seoul, South Koreak 44 F https://www.wunderground.com/weather/RKSM
    Wuhan, China 43 F https://www.wunderground.com/weather/cn/wuhan
    Singapore 76 F https://www.wunderground.com/weather/sg/singapore

    • Replies: @M_Young
    , @vhrm
  9. First, Lumbardy is the most developed region in Italy

    Lumbards?

    • Replies: @Lot
  10. Anon[255] • Disclaimer says:
    @Anon

    It would be nice if it were false, but Italy has been hit hard, and Wuhan went through what Italy may be heading towards. It’s possible the Italian government doesn’t want their doctors to discuss the situation. Italy has an unusual amount of old people.

    In the US, I’ve been hearing our hospital beds are pretty full simply because it’s been a bad flu season so far. But if Covid-19 lays off for maybe a week or two, we may be able to free up beds.

    • Replies: @yakushimaru
    , @Jack D
  11. Anonymous[186] • Disclaimer says:

  12. FreddieY says:

    At least one interview with an Italian doctor, identified by name, appeared in the Italian media early today saying similar things.

    Interview with Christian Salaroli in Corriere della Sera

    https://www.corriere.it/cronache/20_marzo_09/coronavirus-scegliamo-chi-curare-chi-no-come-ogni-guerra-196f7d34-617d-11ea-8f33-90c941af0f23.shtml

    A quote from the interview as translated by Google: “Since unfortunately there is disproportion between hospital resources, ICU beds, and critically ill people, not all are intubated.”

    In a few weeks people will be asking, “Why is the reported fatality rate different in various European countries?” One of the main reasons will be:

    Source: https://doi.org/10.1007/s00134-012-2627-8

    • Replies: @eugyppius
  13. @Anon

    Some other things standout as possibly fake. The use of English language acronyms for medical terms gratuitously and without explanation is a red flag. He
    mentions path and ortho being handed leaflets (? – trained physicians need reminders on how to treat viral pneumonia?) to go treat NIV (had to look it up – noninvasive ventilation) patients. The phrasing is odd, usually would say eg NC (nasal cannula) or whatever is appropriate. Makes me think someone had to look up “oxygen mask medical term” in google or something. Also, why not dermatologists or some other group being sent in to help? Honestly the whole thing is a bit fishy.

    • Disagree: Bill
    • Replies: @Anonymous (n)
  14. Triage in Italian is smistamento. However, Italian Wikipedia uses the French term:

    https://it.wikipedia.org/wiki/Triage

    Too bad. I think triaggio has a nice ring to it. Or would it be triaggia?

    First, Lumbardy is the most developed region in Italy and it has a extraordinary good healthcare…

    …but a very high incidence of lower back pain.

    ¡Ay carumba!

  15. Anon[255] • Disclaimer says:

    Here’s an article about how the demographics in Italy are working against that country.

    https://www.theguardian.com/world/2020/mar/03/italy-elderly-population-coronavirus-risk-covid-19

    “Italy is a country of old people,” said Prof Massimo Galli, the director of infectious diseases at Sacco hospital in Milan. “The elderly with previous pathologies are notoriously numerous here. I think this could explain why we are seeing more serious cases of coronavirus here, which I repeat, in the vast majority of cases start mildly and cause few problems, especially in young people and certainly in children.

    “Our life expectancy is among the highest in the world. But unfortunately, in a situation like this, old people are more at risk of a serious outcome.”

  16. Anon[343] • Disclaimer says:

    It would be nice if it were false, but Italy has been hit hard and brutal , and Wuhan went through what Italy may be heading towards.

    These two things can be simultaneously true: (1) Italy has been hit very hard and doctors are making life and death decisions, and (2) the specific tweet storm in question is a compilation of rumors by medical gossip mongers transmitted along standard folklore lines.

    If the mystery doctor were named and submitted to a detailed interview we’d know. I think most of the tweetstorm would dissolve into “It didn’t happen to me but to a respected friend of mine who I trust,” and “It’s well known among the medical community that this is happening now.” With anonymity comes creeping first personalism. I should know!

  17. @anon

    So we’re down to ‘death panels’.
    That’s just great.

    Sounds less like death panels than just a clinically cold-hearted and immediate rational reaction to the facts on the grounds. If you can’t save them, don’t waste resources trying. There are plenty of others who need your help.

    • Replies: @anon
    , @dearieme
  18. Semi-OT:

    Here is a photo of the mayor of DC’s press conference on corona:

    How did our nation’s capital come to be run by a bunch of obviously worthless, inbred mutants?

    • Replies: @JimB
    , @Pericles
    , @Lugash
  19. Anonymous[213] • Disclaimer says:

    The deaths, announced by the Italian Civil Protection Agency, mark a 20 per cent rise in the country’s total number of deaths within 24 hours. Almost half of these have been reported in those aged 80 to 89-years-old, the Department said, with a further 31 per cent in 70 to 79-year-olds.

    So perhaps the virus was introduced by garment worker Chinese diaspora … but now 80% of its victims are elderly Italians over 70 and especially over 80…

    These people are too old for a lot of social gatherings. Is this another nursing home industry debacle? Also gotta wonder if the virus emerged from Chinese restaurants.

    https://www.dailymail.co.uk/news/article-8090779/Italian-PM-makes-impassioned-plea-16-million-obey-quarantine.html

    .

    • Replies: @dearieme
  20. It’s almost like this outbreak is causing the people who don’t trust official Deep State stories to openly question the Deep State lines about this virus–and maybe gaining more converts.

    Whether the Wuhan virus turns out to be a virtual dud or visibly deadly to the common rabble will have long range psychological trust effects on the people in relation to their respective governments.

  21. J.Ross says:

    Italy:
    –open borders
    –ingratitude for Salvini and Traini
    –importing Chinese slaves so you can pay slave upkeep but “honestly” attach a “Made In Italy” label to designer garments
    –why is this happening to me?
    God at long last is proving He exists.
    HAIL NURGLE!!!

    • Agree: Chrisnonymous, bomag
  22. anon[122] • Disclaimer says:
    @Pincher Martin

    If you can’t save them, don’t waste resources trying

    “don’t waste resources” = death panels.

    • Replies: @Pincher Martin
  23. M_Young says:
    @res

    Isn’t ”saturation-specific humidity” what we used to call ‘dew point’ in America?

    • Replies: @res
  24. Whiskey says: • Website

    So your parents have to be left to die to save vibrant immigrants. Great.

    • Replies: @Houston 1992
  25. Alfa158 says:

    It would have been an even scarier report without the mis-spellings.

  26. Hong Kong is a city of 7-8 million with some of the highest urban density the world. Yet as of today, we have 107 confirmed cases, two deaths, and 51 discharged.

    Why? Because nobody panicked, everybody wore masks, schools and universities closed almost immediately (some people have confined themselves to quarters since the beginning of February), people practiced good personal hygiene (despite living in a filthy city), and the government (after much pressure) closed the main border crossing with China (reducing the tourist flow from 100,000 per day to around 3,000 per day).

    I’m not Chinese, and have mixed feeling about Chinese culture after living here for over 20 years, but like many Chinese I am astonished at the ineptitude exhibited by Western governments and Westerners in general.

    A fairly large percentage of you (us) need to get a grip. And Unzworld is an order of magnitude more sensible than Twitter, where the general conversation among the intelligentsia is bordering on retarded.

    My prediction: when this all blows over, it’s going to be a long time before northeast Asians take Westerners seriously again (on any matter).

  27. FreddieY says:

    Anonymous[396] wrote:

    This reads exactly like what we saw four weeks ago from Wuhan. But it looks very different from what we are seeing in South Korea or California. Are we witnessing outbreaks of different strains of novel coronavirus?

    Human behavior has a tremendous effect on the rate of transmission. That’s why staying home and avoiding face-to-face meetings and closing schools and large-scale testing and extensive contact tracing, etc., are so important. The government and people of South Korea have taken sensible steps to stop and slow transmission. The government and people of Wuhan, early on, did not, although they later acted brilliantly.

    California is at an earlier stage than those countries. Like the rest of the US, it gets to choose whether its future will be more like Wuhan’s or South Korea’s, but it better choose fast.

    Here’s a preprint showing an R0 of 0.4 in Guangdong last month. That’s very low:

    https://www.medrxiv.org/content/10.1101/2020.03.03.20028423v1

    On the other hand, here’s an article about a paper about a guy in Hunan who infected 11 passengers during a ride on two buses:

    https://www.scmp.com/news/china/science/article/3074351/coronavirus-can-travel-twice-far-official-safe-distance-and-stay

    Different strains or different behavior? None of the bus passengers who wore masks got infected.

  28. Anon[255] • Disclaimer says:

    Is it possible, if Italy has a large population of Chinese workers in their garment factories, that they tend to be female and younger? And is it possible, if their pay is lousy (as it tends to be in sweatshops), that significant amounts of them supplement their income with a sideline in prostitution? Since Italy has had a very rapid rate of spread, I suspect Italy has a lot of older male patients that flooded into their hospitals this week.

    It sounds rather cynical, but I was surprised to hear that Italy has tens of thousands of garment workers from China in their country. Italy’s an expensive place to live compared to China, so it doesn’t seem to make economic sense to bring them in. It would make your business costs higher, unless you had another goal you were aiming for. I wonder if some fashion house owners just said to themselves, “Hey, why bother to fly all the way to Thailand to have sex with oriental girls? We can just bring the oriental girls here.” There may be a significant demand in Italy for oriental prostitutes.

    https://www.aljazeera.com/indepth/features/exploited-turn-lives-italys-chinese-prostitutes-190406220713228.html

    • Replies: @LondonBob
    , @Pericles
  29. @Reg Cæsar

    I think triaggio has a nice ring to it.

    The Italians have already given us quarantina. So you’re asking for rather a lot.

    • Replies: @Reg Cæsar
  30. @Anon

    — These passages seem unlikely in a doctor to doctor report:

    My friends call me in tears because they see people dying in front of them and they con only offer some oxygen

    But what if they were literally shaking??

  31. @Reg Cæsar

    Hey cool it with the spooky stuff

    • LOL: sayless
  32. Anonymous[186] • Disclaimer says:

    Italy is not the United States.

    So shut up, Italy.

    We are diverse. We see things differently, and do things differently.

    Also, we want to die.

  33. The Italians have already given us quarantina. So you’re asking for rather a lot.

    Naw man, Quarantina from the Bronx. She stay up with Kamika and them at 212. I went to school with her, you know what I’m saying?

    • Replies: @Bert
  34. Anon[181] • Disclaimer says:

    Slightly off topic.

    Watching the various international news reports on the coronavirus I get the feeling that I’m watching a disaster movie where news reports have been scripted and filmed. When watching such movies I can’t help but think, “Nice try, but this still sounds a little fake to me.” Now that it’s not fake, it still sounds fake. It’s similar to my initial reaction to the collapse of the World Trade Center. It just didn’t look real. It looked exactly like you’d expect CGI to look in a movie. Which shows that CGI is actually pretty accurate.

  35. NYC area first responders were prepping almost a month ago. Still not early enough for my taste.

    As soon as it hit South Korea and Italy in spectacular fashion over two weeks ago, we knew it would come here, if it wasn’t here already – indeed, as we can now surmise, it was already here

    I knew that the American public would not have the will to do what it takes to prevent its initial spread. It is difficult. Even I am a bit too lazy to fully heed my own warnings, and not for doubt or lack of confidence. I should probably get my motivation checked out once all this blows over

    It has probably occurred by now to you readers, as it should have a month ago, even if for novel diseases as a rule, that you should watch out for your grandparents and parents, and other elderly friends

  36. So far there have been 463 deaths from this thing in Italy, a nation of 59 million. Does that comport with the hellish scene this guy’s cousin’s friend described?

  37. There are around 9,500 cases in Italy and they’ve had just under 500 deaths. So, I’m guessing a few thousand in ICUs? That’s a heavy load but it doesn’t sound consistent with the description above, but maybe I’m wrong.

    • Replies: @Anonymous (n)
  38. @Anon

    It could be Italian dramatics. The severity may be a result of a relative laxity about rules

  39. I’ve been hearing similar stories. My buddy’s sister knows a doctor in Oregon. Here’s what he told her:

    Bodies are stacked like cordwood in every floor. Old people die in the waiting rooms as black orderlies rifle though their pockets, taking anything of value. A carrion bird, grown fat from feasting on the recently dead, is perched atop what was—merely twenty-four hours ago!—the admissions desk of Portland’s largest hospital.

    A rich man, a banker with ties to Oregon’s oldest logging and farming families, just tried offering me a double-handful of Krugerrands in exchange for a few simple medical supplies for his family. I turned him down; not out of principle, for I hope to bribe my way across the river to Washington soon, but out of scarcity. We have nothing here: even our
    supplies of gauze and simple bandages have been exhausted.

    Most of the staff has long since abandoned their posts, explaining that they would rather die at home with their families. I can’t fault them for it—if my dear Marion hadn’t succumbed to the virus two days ago I might myself have taken that route. Instead, I wait here for what will inevitably end tomorrow or Wednesday, when power and water service will likely end and I can flee this place with a sound conscience.

  40. Boethiuss says:
    @Daniel Williams

    So far there have been 463 deaths from this thing in Italy, a nation of 59 million. Does that comport with the hellish scene this guy’s cousin’s friend described?

    A couple of days ago they locked down the entire region of Lombardy, ie no travel in or out. That’s like quarantining Washington state or Ohio. Then today they locked down the whole country. We obviously don’t really know what the full effect of this is going to be, but the idea that this is a big nothingburger is becoming less and less credible at every moment.

  41. JimB says:
    @Mr McKenna

    Don’t eat the salmon mousse.

  42. Anon[249] • Disclaimer says:

    The Twitter account in question only had ten tweets prior to this, although the first three were in 2013, followed by a spurt of five in 2018.

  43. res says:
    @M_Young

    That’s what the plot shows. Saturation-specific humidity is the water content of air at a given dew point. The reason I go to the trouble of connecting the two is dew point is easily available from weather data while specific humidity is the measure used in the graphic I referenced.

  44. El Dato says:
    @Anon

    I think virus sequencing would be rather fast (it’s not the 2000’s anymore), so whether that’s the case would be good knowledge quite quickly.

  45. JimB says:
    @The Wild Geese Howard

    White flight and gubbiment cheese.

  46. Boethiuss says:

    Just as a gut feel, if I had to put a number on Trump being reelected two weeks ago at this time, I’d have said 75%. And if I had to do it right this second, I’d say about 20%.

    Trump has done a lot of nothing and tweeted his usual and if it were any other issue I don’t think it would matter. But for this, we haven’t seen much impact yet but when we do I don’t think Trump can come back from it. And I don’t think it’s going to matter exactly how big the impact is. Whatever it is, it’s obviously way bigger than anything we had anticipated or planned for.

    Trump famously said that he wouldn’t lose anything in the polls even if he shot somebody dead on 5th Avenue. In the next month or so, I think we’ll find out. I for one am not optimistic.

    • Replies: @res
    , @Colin Wright
  47. El Dato says:
    @Daniel Williams

    So it’s like the Siege of Leningrad, but without the Germans?

  48. The really good news is South Korea. While we can’t trust ChiCom numbers for a variety of reasons, South Korea’s numbers are more reliable, also for a variety of reasons. And the South Koreans seem to have locked down the fatality rate to 0.6 %. Still higher than the common flu (0.1-0.2 %) , but far lower than the scary 3.4% the WHO released for it overall.

    The South Koreans have done a huge amount of accurate testing, which allows them to triage people right away (i.e. the old and sick who test positive are immediately put in ICUs), which is cutting the death rate.

    This means it is feasible, if other nations get off their asses and do mass testing, to keep this to just being a serious flu rather than a super-killer flu.

    Of course, S. Korea has the advantages of being a physically small nation, single-ethnicity, 1st world, and likely practiced in quarantine/lockdown drills due to the threats of the N. Korea and China and the heavy U.S. Army presence making them quite a bit more ready to do strict actions in a hurry.

    In other words, other nations not having this combination of factors (e.g. the U.S., Italy, the U.K., Canada) might have a disadvanatge.

  49. Boethiuss says:
    @Anon

    — There is specifically a subgenre of urban legends called “Emergency Room Lore.” Brunvand treats it in depth. Medicine is stressful and is one of the most fertile spawning grounds for urban folklore.

    Yeah yeah yeah. They put the whole country on lockdown. At least that part isn’t folklore.

  50. @anon

    “don’t waste resources” = death panels.

    There’s no deliberation; it’s obviously being done without planning or thought, in the same way you would kill an injured animal you know doesn’t have a good chance to live.

    And, no, it’s not a bad thing, given the circumstances the hospital staff is working under.

    A fitting quote from Melville:

    “So true it is, and so terrible too, that up to a certain point the thought or sight of misery enlists our best affections; but, in certain special cases, beyond that point it does not. They err who would assert that invariably this is owing to the inherent selfishness of the human heart. It rather proceeds from a certain hopelessness of remedying excessive and organic ill. To a sensitive being, pity is not seldom pain. And when at last it is perceived that such pity cannot lead to effectual succor, common sense bids the soul be rid of it.”

    Bartleby the Scrivener

    • Replies: @anon
    , @bomag
    , @Bill
  51. res says:
    @Boethiuss

    Anyone inclined to take Boethiuss commenting about Trump’s chances seriously should spend a few minutes revisiting his comments before the 2016 election. Here is a sample.
    https://www.unz.com/isteve/whats-wrong-with-this-picture/#comment-1613926

    So what if I were you illiterate retard. Trump is still going to lose, and you were the ones who put him there.

    • Thanks: Coemgen
  52. vhrm says:
    @res

    Haven’t followed this humidity angle, though i think i heard “mucus” mentioned somewhere, but if i read that graph right
    a) low humidity causes (enables, is associated with etc) more transmission

    AND
    b) low humidity ALSO has higher survival rates.

    What’s the mechanism (or proposed mechanism) for those two things?

    And is the survival higher in the dry case just because more (otherwise healthy) people get it? or does high humidity help a given individual survive better when/if they get it?

    • Replies: @vhrm
    , @res
  53. @Moral Stone

    It may be fake, but those are some weak objections you raise. Non medicine specialists like surgeons and pathologists won’t know anything about how to treat pneumonia (or other “medicine” conditions) other than what they can recall from medical school years or decades before. They may have a general understanding of the principles, but day to day patient care does not revolve around general principles but around specific dosages, antibiotic types, IV fluid flow rates, etc. These are not things you learn or remember unless it’s your day to day, which for pathologists and surgeons, it’s not.

    Non invasive ventilation is the appropriate terminology to use here. Nasal canula refers specifically to one type of non invasive ventilation but CPAP, BIPAP, and High Flow are other common methods of supplementing oxygen without taking the drastic step of endotracheal intubation. That’s the big line in the sand when treating respiratory distress, to intubate or to use one of those methods of non invasive ventilation I just mentioned. Saying “nasal canula” in this context would be like saying “you can fly to LA or just travel by Honda.”

    Overall the medical jargon strikes me as believable and is by no means heavy in abbreviations compared to medical communication in general. If you read actual medical notes you’d be shocked at just how large a fraction is composed of contractions of various kinds, it’s much more heavy than this text thread. I sure hope it’s fake but there isn’t anything in it that jumps out at me as it being a non-medical sensationalist using words he doesn’t understand to try and pass as a medical professional. The only thing that makes me raise my eyebrow is just how grim of a situation it is that is being painted, but if the carnage in Wuhan is any guide, that too is by no means out of the question. The Chinese BUILT ENTIRE HOSPITALS in Wuhan almost overnight and the death rate there is still staggering. Why believe that the Italians, who have not built any hospitals recently, would be faring any better?

    • Agree: Bill, Coemgen
    • Thanks: Jim Don Bob
  54. @Whiskey

    Someone should point out to Trump that he will most likely need the votes of the elderly White people who are in peril from this new “yellow peril.”

  55. vhrm says:
    @vhrm

    ok. i read the thread on humidifiers so understand some of the proposed mechanisms, but isn’t the “survival” scale inverted in your graph? (i.e. from that posts discussion the claim is that high absolute humidity should have high survival , no ?)

  56. Bert says:
    @Change that Matters

    Western individualism can be both a blessing and a curse. In the centuries of global conquest it pushed forward both science and the occupation of three continents. Now in a too-full world of great interdependence being more cooperative, even ant-like has some obvious advantages. As someone who has been a follower of the precautionary principle (and who’s watched several close associates destroy themselves by being reckless), I long ago gave up admiring anything about Western culture of the last 40 years.

    I don’t do Twitter but the common themes in Unzworld are “It’s no problem,” or “It’s a bioweapon.” Neither of those are of any utility. It is a credit to Steve Sailer that his posts on the epidemic are oriented towards practical measures.

  57. JimDandy says:
    @res

    “Boethiuss” my ass. You’re not fooling anyone, Nate Silver.

    • LOL: Boethiuss, res
  58. Bert says:
    @Daniel Williams

    When a black Enterprise car rental employee came to pick me up, as I was getting my seatbelt on he said, “This where you stay?” “No man, this is where I live.” The use of “stay” for “live” or “reside” speaks of the fluidity of personal relationships, i.e., of the chaos in that demographic.

  59. Svevlad says:

    Boomercide it seems.

    How many patients ACTUALLY need hospital care? Then there are god knows how many more people with the thing but not severe sympotms so they didn’t even go to the doc

  60. @RichardTaylor

    Just how many free ICU beds do you think there are in a country? A large, tertiary care hospital may have anywhere from 12 to 40 ICU beds, most of which are utilized at baseline even without the added influx of coronavirus patients. A handful may be laying empty at any given time. That’s large hospitals, smaller ones will have correspondingly smaller ICUs. Do the math on how many hospitals you would need to care for “thousands” of unexpected ICU patients at less than 10 free ICU beds per hospital.

    • Replies: @RichardTaylor
  61. anon[122] • Disclaimer says:
    @Pincher Martin

    you know doesn’t have a good chance to live

    If you don’t try you wont know. Not sure if you’ve had a family member at that point but hey, good luck going forward with you and yours, Mr Melville quote man.

  62. Anonymous[186] • Disclaimer says:
    @res

    Anyone inclined to take Boethiuss commenting about Trump’s chances seriously should spend a few minutes revisiting his comments before the 2016 election. Here is a sample.
    https://www.unz.com/isteve/whats-wrong-with-this-picture/#comment-1613926

    Yeah, I remember this pathetic incel ranting about trump back in the day.

    What I could never understand is why someone who’s judgement has been objectively proven to be bad, just keeps right on relying on, and sharing their poor judgement skills? As if racking up errors doesn’t make them a laughing stock.

    I guess it’s some psychological pathology like those weird queebs who show up at American Idol auditions who believe they can sing, ignoring how much they’re upsetting people.

    Whatever it is, it’s depressing.

    • Agree: Coemgen
    • Replies: @Boethiuss
  63. LondonBob says:
    @Change that Matters

    How long can East Asian nations maintain such quarantine measures though, this will be another of the flus we live with and flares up every so often. Hopefully in the long run most will get it when young and will have immunity. The underlying message from our authorities here in Britain is that it is best we get it in the summer, taking extreme measures now just ensure we will then get it next winter.

    • Replies: @Rob
  64. LondonBob says:
    @Anon

    Italy is a very popular tourist destination, including with the Chinese.

    • Replies: @Steve Sailer
  65. @Anonymous (n)

    The best number I wound for total ICUs in America is around 95,000. And I saw that they can be 70 to 80% full most of the time. So guessing 19,000 to 28,500 free. So I assume Italy is a little more than a fifth our size, so I’m guessing 5,000 free.

    Maybe I’m off. But if that’s close, I can’t believe the war zone scene described above. Also, if this is happening, why isn’t out media hyping images of it? CNN and MSNBC love this virus.

    • Replies: @Chrisnonymous
  66. Pericles says:
    @Anon

    Possibly, but cheap Chinese labor is a thing there too. If you ask me, yet another sector where the wise captains of industry hand over long-term strategic advantage so they can beat the next quarterly number.

  67. @Boethiuss

    We obviously don’t really know what the full effect of this is going to be, but the idea that this is a big nothingburger is becoming less and less credible at every moment.

    Maybe. But it’s odd that places like India have less than 50 cases. Russia same. Italy must have had deep contact with some Chinese recently.

    Italy has 10,000 with the virus. So … maybe 1,000 need ICUs? How does that comport with the scene described?

    This link has a pretty nice live update of cases and deaths by country/region:

    https://www.arcgis.com/apps/opsdashboard/index.html#/bda7594740fd40299423467b48e9ecf6

    • Replies: @Boethiuss
    , @Tex
    , @HA
  68. Pericles says:
    @Anonymous

    You can’t be squeamish if you want to live in San Francisco. Corona-GRIDS is coming.

  69. @Daniel Williams

    Which ” novel” is this from?

  70. @BenKenobi

    Man, get serious, it is not your fight against racism or anti-racism or race realists or immigration or xenophobia or whatever.

    It is about avoiding crowds and washing hands.

    • Replies: @anonymous
  71. @anon

    If you don’t try you wont know. Not sure if you’ve had a family member at that point but hey, good luck going forward with you and yours, Mr Melville quote man.

    No need for a Melville quote to imbibe this simple lesson: Any time spent working on one patient is time lost working on another. So your desire to have the hospital staff give the good old college try in attempting to save your 80-year-old diabetic grandpa is time they can’t spend trying to save someone more likely to live, like my younger and healthier aunt.

    With patients overflowing the hospitals in Lombardy, the staff is forced to make immediate and rational choices on who to focus their efforts saving. From the Twitter description, they don’t deliberate over it, as a death panel would. They just do it. If you don’t like their choices, get your ass over there and give them a hand. Your uselessness in that endeavor will perhaps make you more sympathetic to their plight.

    • Replies: @Anon
  72. @Anon

    When the beds are occupied, it is no longer just about the old ones.

  73. @Change that Matters

    Well, you know the old maxim from the Cold War:

    Better Dead than Racist

    I think I have that right.

  74. @LondonBob

    Iceland has a sizable number of cases, many of them Icelanders who took skiing vacations in the Italian Alps.

    • Replies: @LondonBob
  75. Hibernian says:
    @Daniel Williams

    Could be true at least at the epicenter. Locking down all of Italy including Sicily seems an overreaction.

    • Replies: @Lockean Proviso
  76. @Change that Matters

    Thanks for the HK update, Change. I’ve been living in HK for a decade longer than you, and I largely agree with your conclusions. In addition to all the risk factors in HK you mentioned, add the fact that a majority of people here must spend significant periods on crowded public transport every day.

    The 2003 SARS crisis has been a significant mitigating factor for HK. It prepared people for later viral outbreaks in numerous ways. Everybody got used to the idea of wearing masks (which is weird and intrusive at first), and people developed the practical, stoic mindset that you mentioned, and that I think has helped a lot this time around.

    When we saw the news that the Corona virus had reached the USA and was spreading in WA, CA, etc., Mrs C and I agreed that it would be impossible to implement Hong Kong-style controls on US population centers — too much political ill will, too many recalcitrant residents unwilling to make lifestyle sacrifices, and so on.

    • Thanks: YetAnotherAnon
    • Replies: @Bill
  77. eah says:

    Business idea: Fake IDs for oldsters. “No, really, I’m 59 just like my driver’s license says. Depeche Mode Forever!”

    Assuming enough “oldsters” availed themselves of such “Fake IDs”, and as a consequence hospitals were overwhelmed with 59 year old corona virus victims, far too many to care for, what would be your suggestion for Plan B then?

    Asking for an older Italian friend.

    • Replies: @Steve Sailer
  78. That raccoon was probably the healthiest choice there…

  79. The thing that makes sense about that Italian report is the very high ratio of reported deaths (450-odd IIRC) to reported cases (9,500-odd IIRC). That’s about 4.7% which is much higher than the Chinese mortality, but it’s the sort of thing you might expect when intensive care beds have run out.

    Italy’s looking like the “without measures” bit of Steve Hsu’s graph.

    Talking of “without measures”, AFAIK you can still fly into London from anywhere there’s a plane running, none of this nancy-boy “check temperature at the arrival gate” stuff.

    People coming from China or North Italy are recommended to self-quarantine for two weeks. Call me a cynic, but what’s the likelihood of compliance?

    In Ireland all the St Patrick’s Day parades are cancelled, but as I type 60,000 people (including 15,000-odd Irish) are in Cheltenham for the four day Gold Cup race meeting. Last night 32,000 were at a soccer game, on Sunday 73,000 were at the Manchester derby.

    The UK looks to Italy as a model, apparently.

    • Replies: @YetAnotherAnon
  80. LondonBob says:
    @Steve Sailer

    My cousin went skiing in Italy, they have had to self isolate back in Stockholm, children were allowed to go to school though.

    I suspect Italy has had a big breakout for a while now, spread by Chinese tourists. They are probably only identifying a fraction of infections.

    • Replies: @YetAnotherAnon
  81. Coag says:
    @anon

    In the pandemic if there is one respirator left and there are two patients that need it, one is a 55 year old guy who maybe has one or two chronic illnesses but otherwise functional, and the other is a 95 year old guy who has severe dementia and wheelchair bound, the 55 year old guy is getting the respirator. Is that even controversial? Call it a death panel or whatever but ever since we were kicked out of the Garden of Eden and faced real-world scarcity of resources tough decisions had to be made in many situations.

    • Agree: Jim Don Bob
    • Replies: @Anonymous
  82. Boethiuss says:
    @Anonymous

    Yeah, I remember this pathetic incel ranting about trump back in the day.

    Yeah, yeah, your dick wouldn’t even get hard if you took all the Viagra in the pharamacy, Mr NoName.

  83. Anon[398] • Disclaimer says:

    Bernie Bro: MEDICARE FOR ALL!

    Ok boomer. No tube for you.

  84. Boethiuss says:
    @res

    Yeah yeah. There’s been an excerpt from the Tucker Carlson show that’s been making the rounds today,

    and it gives me a headache. We could have had that guy talking to us from the Oval Office, not sugarcoating anything, but just speaking plainly about where we stand. Or somebody who sounds like him.

    But we don’t, because you guys wanted Donnie, and we got Donnie. And no matter how much he fcuks up, or whatever stupid shtt he says there’s nothing we can do, because Donnie’s the best. If you don’t believe me, just ask him.

    And even if he loses in November, at least you got your wall.

    • Disagree: YetAnotherAnon
    • Replies: @Tex
    , @Mr. Anon
    , @anonymous
  85. @LondonBob

    “they have had to self isolate back in Stockholm, children were allowed to go to school though”

    If children can carry and pass on the virus, that seems like a good way of infecting people who didn’t go to Italy, via their kids bringing it home from school.

    I criticise the UK, but our local schools said that any children going to Italy for half-term would have to stay at home for two weeks when they got back, at which point our neighbours cancelled their trip.

    Fortunately the take-the-kids-skiing demographic and the responsible parents demographic has a large overlap.

  86. If you think that corona thing is just a scare, I have a solemn duty to inform you- you are an idiot.

  87. Anon[122] • Disclaimer says:
    @Pincher Martin

    get your ass over there and give them a hand.

    You first moby pindick, but before you go can you regale us with some more maudlin prose?
    I got real weepy with your first effort.

    • Replies: @Pincher Martin
  88. Boethiuss says:
    @RichardTaylor

    Maybe. But it’s odd that places like India have less than 50 cases. Russia same. Italy must have had deep contact with some Chinese recently.

    I think you gotta look at what’s been baked into the cake already. Ie, let’s say we can pull off some South Korea/Hong Kong style collective action, cancel schools, concerts and major sporting events, slow the spread of the virus, tighten up the supply chains, take an economic contraction for one or two quarters and then pick up where we left off. Even then, even if the long-term effect is pretty much negligible, it’s going to be very disruptive. And people are going to remember that and remember the things that had to be done to beat the virus.

    And how the things that President Trump was telling us about the virus (“Fake News!!”) weren’t at all the things that ended up happening.

    • Replies: @RichardTaylor
  89. anonymous[767] • Disclaimer says:
    @yakushimaru

    It is about avoiding crowds and washing hands.

    I see where you’re coming from. However, leftists and virtue signalers in the media emphasizing that racism and xenophobia are worse than the disease will cause many people to take the disease less seriously. This will result in less people avoiding crowds and washing their hands.

  90. @Boethiuss

    And how the things that President Trump was telling us about the virus (“Fake News!!”) weren’t at all the things that ended up happening.

    It’s not going to dissuade any Trump voter from voting for him again over any of the Democrats. But yeah, it does expose the problem with any salesman – they aren’t detail people and they like to puff good news and ignore the bad.

    • Replies: @Boethiuss
  91. @anon

    You do know our team is firmly on the side of “death panels,” right? Google “lifeboat ethics Garrett Hardin”.

  92. Anonymous[367] • Disclaimer says:

    Looked up some heart/lung machine manufacturers. Why haven’t their stocks done well this past month? Medtronic, LivaNova?

  93. eugyppius says:
    @FreddieY

    Yeah, the anon thread squares with other media reports. There’s really nothing remarkable in it, and journalist access to hospitals is going to be tightly controlled, so accurate reporting on conditions won’t be all over the media. From Italy’s reaction you can take the measure of how hard it’s hitting them.
    My little anecdote from Germany:
    Back when the number of official corona infections was still about 20-30, I got a bad virus, and for work I needed a doctor’s diagnosis. Even then with almost no official cases a lot of local doctors were mysteriously away/not returning calls/etc. The one clinic I did get into was in a state of quiet chaos. All respiratory patients sent straight to an ad-hoc quarantine room, and nobody but coughing wheezing pale people were there. Place was crowded, every few minutes another person turned up. Signs demanding that everyone disclose all recent travel on the walls. Staff in masks disinfecting surfaces every few mins.
    From my own case and the rhythm of the place, it seemed the doctor had the same routine for everyone: Interview about travel and contact, testing for flu, measuring oxygen saturation, and then call the next one in. New patients showing up just as fast as she could process them.
    After I failed the flu test they said my symptoms made me a possible corona case. I was told no test to confirm was available, but the pulse oximeter said I was breathing fine so they sent me home. I was really sick for about four days. Then kind of sick for another week or so.
    Germany is probably two weeks ahead of Italy.

    • Replies: @eugyppius
  94. eugyppius says:
    @eugyppius

    Ha, I mean, two weeks *behind* Italy. returning to the internet after twelve days of staring at the apt ceiling is hard.

    • Replies: @Chrisnonymous
  95. @Bert

    I have observed black people saying they have to go to “their job” rather than “to work.” The implications are left as an exercise for the reader.

    • Replies: @Art Deco
  96. bomag says:
    @Pincher Martin

    …common sense bids the soul be rid of it

    True enough, but in a time when fanatics are the ones gaining political power, we drift in two directions:

    1) Killing becomes casual: a bad hair day; a thoughtless tweet from ten years ago.

    2) Pump even more resources into a lost cause: million dollar procedures at the end of life; an illegal immigrant waiting for their fourth liver transplant.

  97. @YetAnotherAnon

    UPDATE – from the Guardian liveblog

    “Nottingham Forest owner Evangelos Marinakis, who was at the Championship football team’s home game on Friday alongside more than 27,000 fans, has reportedly contracted coronavirus.”

    • Replies: @Steve Sailer
  98. Boethiuss says:
    @RichardTaylor

    It’s not going to dissuade any Trump voter from voting for him again over any of the Democrats. But yeah, it does expose the problem with any salesman – they aren’t detail people and they like to puff good news and ignore the bad.

    Really? I would have agreed with you up until a week or so ago, but now I think it will.

    Things will be happening to our material detriment and maybe our health or that of our loved ones, visible to the naked eye to any of us, that could have been prevented if better decisions had been made. When that happens, yeah I do think it’s enough even for MAGA types to switch over.

    As a lot of people have pointed out, here and elsewhere, that this crisis actually vindicates a lot of the premises of the Trump Administration. Too many foreigners coming in and spreading disease, insecure supply chains, too much globalization, etc. But if Trump can’t execute, what’s the point?

    • Replies: @res
  99. @RichardTaylor

    I can’t believe the war zone scene described above.

    You can’t?

  100. George says:

    It might come down to hospital beds. Over the years I have personally witnessed the chaos in ERs with patients in the hallways here in the US of A. What happens when you run out of hallways? Tents it seems.

    Hospital beds per 1000 people. The US numbers may be even smaller as undocumented immigration might not be accounted for correctly.

    Japan 13
    Korea 10

    China, Italy, and USA 3

    https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/List_of_OECD_countries_by_hospital_beds

    • Replies: @Coemgen
  101. bomag says:
    @Change that Matters

    I am astonished at the ineptitude exhibited by Western governments and Westerners in general.

    We’re used to it.

    Emergencies here have two components: pagan rituals with flashing lights and Archdruids in costume; month long classes for emergency workers, going over the finer points of transgenderism et al.

  102. @eugyppius

    Germany is always two weeks ahead of Italy.

    • Replies: @JMcG
  103. @anon

    Where can I get me some of them there Qualies?

  104. WJ says:
    @Change that Matters

    “My prediction: when this all blows over, it’s going to be a long time before northeast Asians take Westerners seriously again (on any matter).”

    Well, considering that these clowns in NE Asia, with their disgusting dietary habits, inflicted this on the world, then I think perhaps the statement should be reversed.

  105. @YetAnotherAnon

    Play sports for TV, using applause tracks.

    • Replies: @Corvinus
  106. I am a microbiologist living in Milan, Italy and things are going CRAZY RIGHT NOW!!! People are giving me so many phone calls and all newspapers are asking me for urgent matters, it is just too much to handle right now!! I stood there watching on January 1, February 1, March 1, as you all did, the news accumulated and we were all watching the websites. But I can tell you that it is nothing like you read on the internet. Everyone needs to go crazy RIGHT NOW!!! How dare you go out to dinner and act all detached like this is nothing.

  107. Mr. Anon says:

    Is Italy different because of all the kissing?

    Hey, Mama!, how you’a doing?……………smack.

    • Replies: @Reg Cæsar
  108. Tex says:
    @Boethiuss

    We could have had that guy talking to us from the Oval Office, not sugarcoating anything, but just speaking plainly about where we stand.

    Tucker Carlson was running for president in 2016? How am I just now hearing about this! Tucker’s awesome. I share your disappointment.

    • LOL: Matra
  109. Tex says:
    @RichardTaylor

    Maybe. But it’s odd that places like India have less than 50 cases. Russia same. Italy must have had deep contact with some Chinese recently.

    If India has fifty cases, I wonder how many people they’ve tested. Ditto Russia.

    I suspect the reported number have to do with the quantity and quality of testing. South Korea has thousands upon thousands of cases with a fairly low death rate (0.6% IIRC), as well as extensive testing. The US has very few cases, a high death rate (4%), and we’ve tested barely anybody.

    I suspect we have lots of cases and much lower death rate. We just don’t know how many because our testing is inadequate. Maybe the Koreans are getting false positives. I think that we really don’t know, which makes assessing the threat vastly more difficult.

    • Replies: @Joe, Averaged
  110. @Boethiuss

    Okay, so 463/59,000,000 doesn’t equal .000008?

    Compare to 348 murders in Baltimore, a city of 600,000: .0006.

    So this thing isn’t even as dangerous as regular-old American blacks, whom we haven’t quarantined ourselves against in sixty years.

    The Italians don’t what’s going to come of this any better than you or me or any other speculator. No one knows. But since previous exotic flus have come and gone every year of my life without making much of a splash, I’ve chosen to take a less hysterical approach in how I think about it.

    • Replies: @eugyppius
    , @Boethiuss
  111. JMcG says:
    @Chrisnonymous

    Not when it came to Abyssinia it wasn’t.

  112. Mr. Anon says:
    @Boethiuss

    We could have had that guy talking to us from the Oval Office, not sugarcoating anything, but just speaking plainly about where we stand. Or somebody who sounds like him.

    But we don’t, because you guys wanted Donnie, and we got Donnie.

    What complete crap. What guy? Jeb Bush? Ted Cruz? Little Marco? Hillary? You think they would do any better?

    Yes, Trump is a failure as far as most of us are concerned. That doesn’t mean anyone else in 2016 was or would have been any better. The country is always run by the same people and it is always screwed – it doesn’t matter who happens to warm the seat at the Oval Office desk.

    • Replies: @Boethiuss
  113. Mr. Anon says:
    @Boethiuss

    We obviously don’t really know what the full effect of this is going to be, but the idea that this is a big nothingburger is becoming less and less credible at every moment.

    Already, the fact that you – Boethiuss – are worked up about it leads me to think that it’s not a big deal.

    • Replies: @Boethiuss
  114. wouldn’t reports be on italian tv? wouldn’t countless people with camera phones post stills and videos on youtube?

  115. Art Deco says:
    @Bert

    The Census Bureau last assessed length of residence by race in 2005.

    For blacks, the householder’s years in residence were as follows:

    0-5: 55.1%
    5-10: 15.6%
    10-15: 8.1%
    15-25: 8.7%
    25-35: 7.0%
    > 35: 5.4%

    For the general population, it was as follows:

    0-5: 48.8%
    5-10: 16.6%
    10-15: 9.7%
    15-25: 11.0%
    25-35: 7.2%
    > 35: 6.4%

    The average number of persons per household was 2.6 for the general population and the black subpopulation alike. About 66.8% of the householders in the general population were owner-occupiers, v. 46.8% of the black subpopulation.

  116. Lugash says:
    @The Wild Geese Howard

    I briefly listened to the DC mayor. She sounded reasonably confident. Better than Trump has.

  117. Art Deco says:
    @Milo Minderbinder

    The implications are a function of your inclination to confirmation bias.

  118. eugyppius says:
    @Daniel Williams

    Okay, so 463/59,000,000 doesn’t equal .000008?

    Compare to 348 murders in Baltimore, a city of 600,000: .0006.

    So this thing isn’t even as dangerous as regular-old American blacks, whom we haven’t quarantined ourselves against in sixty years.

    Look, don’t be hysterical, but black crime in America is a constant. It doesn’t increase exponentially over time, while requiring that ca. 10% of those officially affected (as in Italy right now) be put in intensive care with some kind of assisted respiration.

    Eventually there aren’t any ventilators left, and your mortality rate gets a lot worse. Also, mortality from other causes not included in the corona statistics goes up, because the system is overcapacity and a lot of things that would normally be addressed end up being triaged to the back of the queue, overlooked, etc.

    In most countries testing has been totally inadequate and the number of official cases bears no relationship to the true state of the pandemic. To that fact comes this: Symptoms lag infection by 2-3 weeks. A vastly greater number of infections than are apparent right now are already in the post. Governments need to be reacting to the world three weeks from now, which almost surely means doing at least a few things that will strike at least a few people as hysterical. The alternative is dealing with the disease in the moment, which is to addressing the problems of last month.

    Reading comments on American blogs and emailing colleagues from the US, I feel like I’m in a time warp. Everyone is talking the way people in Germany were talking three weeks ago. Well, I am from the future, and take it from me: Corona isn’t nothing, and this is going to hurt.

  119. Art Deco says:

    It appears at this point that the outbreak has subsided in China and may be beginning to subside in the Far East, but is still ramping up in the rest of the world. Right now, no place (including Iran) has a mortality rate like Italy’s.

    Michael Fumento notes that it has hardly hit the Philippines, which, he supposes, is a function of the country’s climate. Might also be a factor in the distribution within Italy: about 85% of the cases are in the northeast.

  120. @eugyppius

    Governments need to be reacting to the world three weeks from now, which almost surely means doing at least a few things that will strike at least a few people as hysterical. The alternative is dealing with the disease in the moment, which is to addressing the problems of last month.

    That’s a very impressively German way of thinking. Unfortunately, in practice, governments would be lucky if they’re reacting two months behind while internal factions try to find out who is really to blame for what happened last month.

  121. @eah

    Grecian Formula for Men? Kurt Cobain tattoo? Linkin Park t-shirt?

    • LOL: JimDandy
    • Replies: @Tex
  122. @eugyppius

    Reading comments on American blogs and emailing colleagues from the US, I feel like I’m in a time warp. Everyone is talking the way people in Germany were talking three weeks ago.

    Since my dial-up innernet barely works out here in Spuckler County, can you tell me what the lastest death count is in Germany from this disease we should all take really seriously? Is it still two?

    Are people having dreams about a kindly old black lady in Nebraska yet?

    • Replies: @eugyppius
  123. @Anon

    “It just didn’t look real. It looked exactly like you’d expect CGI to look in a movie. Which shows that CGI is actually pretty accurate.”

    Really. What pre-9/11 movie had a tall building collapsing top to bottom?

    Post-9/11 movies showed CGI buildings being destroyed like WTC 1& 2.

  124. @Boethiuss

    “Then today they locked down the whole country. We obviously don’t really know what the full effect of this is going to be, but the idea that this is a big nothingburger is becoming less and less credible at every moment.”

    That, or maybe Italians are melodramatic primadonnas and primodannos.

    • Replies: @anon
  125. Tex says:
    @Steve Sailer

    Grecian Formula for Men? Kurt Cobain tattoo? Linkin Park t-shirt?

    Bitching about Boomers.

  126. eugyppius says:
    @Daniel Williams

    Since my dial-up innernet barely works out here in Spuckler County, can you tell me what the lastest death count is in Germany from this disease we should all take really seriously? Is it still two?

    Actually dead people are not a problem, people who require hospital care and ventilators are. The system has a fixed capacity. Germany as of even last week was testing basically nobody, so no numbers as to infected or deaths are remotely meaningful. People with symptoms to this day cannot get reliably tested. They are told to contact their doctors only by phone and in many cases the doctors tell them to stay away. People with demonstrated contact with corona patients or even at-risk travel, who had symptoms, could not get tested as late as last week. Nobody has the remotest idea, how extensive infections or deaths in Germany are.

  127. Actually dead people are not a problem … Nobody has the remotest idea, how extensive infections or deaths in Germany are.

    I see. So by your own admission you have no idea how many Germans have died (non-problem that death is) from this disease? But you assume the number is higher than, uh, two?

    • Replies: @eugyppius
  128. Corvinus says:
    @Steve Sailer

    Thanks for inspiring me, Mr. Sailer.

    In harnessing my inner Jonathan Swift, I offer my own “Modest Proposal”. I think now is the best time for Europeans (you know, the historic native stock), who shall we say dislike the vibrant migrants, to gently persuade this group to attend the contests by way of gimmedats (e.g. free tickets, free food, free gear).

    Of course, to ensure a sterile environment for the European players (again, the historic native stock), a temporary glass shell over the soccer field or the basketball floor would have to be constructed. In that manner, the stadiums can be a petri dish in real time.

    Imagine the roar of the crowd by the vibrant migrants as they cheer their favorite sportsball heroes, whether it be on the pitch or on the court, as well as the celebration by those watching the festivities in the comfort of their own living room as the vibrant migrants sneeze and cough themselves into oblivion!

    Then, when a number of the vibrant migrants contract the Coronavirus, there can be further justification to immediately deport them. Where? Doesn’t matter. Because as Alt Right leader Vox Day eloquently stated, always sink the ships!

    There need not be the use of applause tracks, as the gleefulness of Europeans (once again, the historic native stock) will be front and center!

    • Replies: @Tex
  129. @Anonymous

    The language of the narrator is almost as scandalous.

  130. @Bert

    I’ll never forget the first time I heard one black fellow ask another—we were all three standing in an aisle in a video store—if he had already “looked at” some particular movie.

    • Replies: @Jack D
  131. @Mr. Anon

    Is Italy different because of all the kissing?

    You don’t want a kiss from an Italian.

    • LOL: Dumbo
  132. res says:
    @vhrm

    I should have included more context. First, here is the paper containing that graphic.
    https://www.ncbi.nlm.nih.gov/pmc/articles/PMC3011950/

    Their use of “survival” is confusing. They are talking about survival of the virus. Here is the figure caption.

    Figure 1.
    Influenza virus survival, transmission, and the basic reproductive number, R0, plotted as a function of absolute humidity. Influenza virus survival data are from Harper (30), influenza virus transmission data are from Lowen et al. (31, 32), and R0 is based on best-fitting, absolute humidity-forced, susceptible-infected-recovered susceptible simulations from Shaman et al. (2). The solid line is R0 for the best-fitting simulation; the gray region shows the range of R0 values as a function of absolute humidity for the 10 best-fitting simulations. The measure of absolute humidity is 2 m above-ground specific humidity in kg/kg and is taken from National Center for Environmental Prediction–National Center for Atmospheric Research (NCEP-NCAR) reanalysis (23).

    • Replies: @vhrm
  133. dearieme says:
    @Pincher Martin

    Sounds like conventional triage to me. What sort of chump thinks such things are unavoidable? Maybe he believes in Disneyworld too.

    • Replies: @res
  134. dearieme says:
    @Anonymous

    These people are too old for a lot of social gatherings.

    It’s Italy: I imagine that their children and grandchildren visit them a lot.

    Perhaps they even live with them.

  135. epebble says:

    Reading this https://translate.google.com/translate?hl=en&sl=it&u=https://www.corriere.it/&prev=search

    (An overworked nurse slumped on the keyboard)

    and https://translate.google.com/translate?hl=en&sl=it&u=https://www.corriere.it/&prev=search

    (Thousand respirators being bought from China)

    The situation seems to be grim.

  136. res says:
    @Boethiuss

    Your concern trolling about Trump is tedious. I sincerely hope we aren’t going to be dealing with it from now through the November election.

    • Replies: @Rob
    , @Boethiuss
  137. res says:
    @dearieme

    What sort of chump thinks such things are unavoidable?

    Pretty much most of leftist America these days.

  138. @Anon

    Drudge Report is the ne plus ultra of COVID-19 disaster porn.

    I also see these headlines as if they’re from an epidemic/zombie apocalypse- like the crawl during a video game. For some reason, the prison fires and breakout in Italy and the Korean death cult cough spreaders seemed particularly so.

    Except, of course, that it’s real and heading our way.

    • Replies: @Tex
  139. @Anon

    I got real weepy with your first effort.

    Good, then you will have had practice at sniveling when you go to Italy and whine about the “death panels.”

  140. Tex says:
    @Corvinus

    First thing you’ve said that makes sense.

    • Replies: @Corvinus
  141. @Hibernian

    The Italian lockdown is rather porous:

    By Sunday afternoon, a full 12 hours after the decree was signed, trains were still rolling south out of the red zone and flights were still leaving Milan and Venice airports and by then the decree should have been in full force. When asked how this could be, a local police officer patrolling Rome’s Termini station, swinging his protective surgical mask around his finger while he smoked a cigarette, told The Daily Beast, “We haven’t been given any orders to stop anyone.”

    The enforcement order finally came down late Sunday afternoon, but it confused things more. Italians living in the expanded red zone were supposed to “self-authorize,” deciding for themselves whether their reason to travel out of the zone was legitimate or not. Essentially “lockdown,” like many regulations in this country, comes down to interpretation.

    https://www.thedailybeast.com/italys-coronavirus-lockdown-shows-why-mass-quarantines-wont-work-in-the-west?via=ios

  142. anonymous[186] • Disclaimer says:
    @Boethiuss

    and it gives me a headache. We could have had that guy talking to us from the Oval Office, not sugarcoating anything, but just speaking plainly about where we stand. Or somebody who sounds like him.

    But we don’t, because you guys wanted Donnie, and we got Donnie. And no matter how much he fcuks up, or whatever stupid shtt he says there’s nothing we can do, because Donnie’s the best. If you don’t believe me, just ask him.

    Wow. This is just like an intern’s meeting at that Carlos Slim newspaper in New York City! It’s very very exciting. Will the Mexican oligarch win? Or our beloved billionaire? Will Boethiuss finally just pay for a hooker and get it over with? Who knows?

  143. @Tex

    The ones we’ve tested in Washington have a 90% negative rate.

  144. anon[186] • Disclaimer says:
    @Je Suis Omar Mateen

    That, or maybe Italians are melodramatic primadonnas and primodannos.

    Or maybe it’s something else.

    An old WWII joke my dad liked to tell:

    Q: How do you identify an Italian-made tank?

    A: It has one gear for forward, and four for reverse.

  145. Have personally today spoken with northern European physicians who are personal friends with physicians in northern Italy, these people non-political

    They verified to me that there is indeed an unusual never-before-seen crisis there, people are dying, intensive care units are overloaded, and triage decisions are being made, it is worse than what is in media or as spoken of by Italian politicians

    It is quite grim apparently

    Also

    Jaroslaw Mika the general commander of Poland’s armed forces has tested positive for coronavirus after returning from Germany

    https://nationalpost.com/pmn/health-pmn/top-polish-general-has-coronavirus-defense-ministry

  146. @Change that Matters

    is this the part where you pretend that moron Chinese people do not create virus after virus then export the viruses to the rest of the world so we have to deal with them, and invent the cures too?

    we’re already to the point where we’re gonna pretend that China was the smart country here?

    CHINA IS THE PROBLEM. they created the virus in the first place.

  147. eugyppius says:
    @Daniel Williams

    Please focus arbitrarily on mortality stats, as if that were the only way a disease could be dangerous; and as if those numbers could be lower in germany, where until the last week almost nobody could be tested for love or money.
    Please continue to ignore the state of italy. there we learn that what makes covid19 a public health crisis is the rate of hospitalizations (italy says over 50% of official infections) and icu/respiratory support cases (10+%). With those numbers, how many infections do you need, until all your hospitals are doing nothing but treating pneumonia all day every day? And could that be a problem?

  148. Pegasus says:

    Triage in Italy?

    Confirmed by a senior Italian government health official coordinating the network of intensive care units in Lombardy from 1:55 on:

    • Thanks: epebble
    • Replies: @epebble
  149. vhrm says:
    @res

    thanks for the clarification.

    (i was just out walking a bit ago and it struck me that that’s what it must have meant. since there’s no way surgical of patients could be that low whichever way the axis went. doh! )

  150. @Boethiuss

    ‘Just as a gut feel, if I had to put a number on Trump being reelected two weeks ago at this time, I’d have said 75%. And if I had to do it right this second, I’d say about 20%.

    Trump has done a lot of nothing and tweeted his usual…’

    This will look better once everyone realizes it is a lot of nothing.

  151. Anon[299] • Disclaimer says:

    It’s good that US was created by WASPs with no such qualms. In contrast to the Papists who essentially invented the hospital, Americans need not worry about overfilled hospitals. A healthy market economy will take care of everything. Cost rises will make sure no hospital would overfill with poor.

    Your precious senators and ball players will be flown in from their Martha Vineyard and their Hamptons, on those 50K-a-ride Medivacs.

    Office paper-pushers will be sorted depending on whether their employer still afforded their contribution to the premiums.

    Actual workers will be kindly invited to go to college.

    • LOL: BB753
  152. Precious says:
    @Change that Matters

    I’m not Chinese, and have mixed feeling about Chinese culture after living here for over 20 years, but like many Chinese I am astonished at the ineptitude exhibited by Western governments and Westerners in general.

    What are you talking about? Western governments are handling this pretty well. The only people running around like Chicken Little in the USA are Trump haters. White folks are not as deficient in Vitamin C as Chinese, and we have less pollution, so we are at much less risk.

  153. Tex says:
    @Lockean Proviso

    Drudge Report is the ne plus ultra of COVID-19 disaster porn.

    I beg to differ, sir. Mr. Meotkur’s disaster porn is far superior to any mere Drudge.

  154. One human factor that will make quarantine nigh impossible are the Italian Alps and Dolomites themselves.

    Both are spectacular destinations that live up to their billing. People are going to risk infection to go see them, especially the folks who are there on the trip of a lifetime they may not be able to afford going forward.

  155. eah says:

    Director of virology at Berlin’s largest hospital says: it appears the coming warmer weather will not greatly affect the course of the epidemic, as previously suggested; in fact, the peak for infections may not come until the summer (“Juni bis August”); the death rate of those 70 – 80 could approach 10%, for those above 80 20 – 25%; “Sozialleben muss jetzt für einige Monate aufhören”: a normal social life must stop for a few months.

    … Wir müssen damit rechnen, dass ein Maximum der Fälle in der Zeit von Juni bis August auftreten wird”, sagte Drosten … Die Sterblichkeit liege bei Patienten ab 80 Jahren bei 20 bis 25 Prozent, in der Altersgruppe 70 bis 80 Jahre bei 7 bis 8 Prozent und in der Altersgruppe 60 bis 70 Jahre bei 3 Prozent …

    • Replies: @vhrm
    , @Precious
  156. Dan Smith says:

    Complete BS. Are Russian trolls taking over Twitter. That I’d believe.

  157. Rob says:
    @LondonBob

    The underlying message from our authorities here in Britain is that it is best we get it in the summer, taking extreme measures now just ensure we will then get it next winter.

    That is incredibly irresponsible, though quite believable. Would you rather have something (that you can mitigate) happen tomorrow or six months from now? Six months would give the UK time to buy more masks, oxygen tanks, and concentrators, and whatever they call the contamination suits, especially since they’re disposable. There were reports of doctors in Wuhan passing out from dehydration, because they didn’t want to have to change suits. Hell, six months gives them time to add ICU beds and ventilators.

    Are they expecting the UK to be a third world country in half a year? Are their finances in such poor shape that they cannot afford to prepare? Is the government and NHS so full of incompetent AA minorities and women they could not prepare even with the money? Does BJ think he’ll get re-elected after half a million(?) people die? Is there no pushback from Labour and the Liberals?

    Those are mostly rhetorical questions, but I’d love to know the government’s reasoning.

  158. Rob says:
    @res

    While it would paradoxically hurt Trump’s chances, it would be wonderful if we were still dealing with this then. That would mean we’ve spread out the infections, and would maybe not run short of ICU beds and ventilators for as many patients, and not run as low on single-use consumables as it if it all hit in the next few weeks. It would be precious time to prepare.

  159. Bill says:
    @Pincher Martin

    There’s also a difference in the kind of trade-off. Triage is about maximizing the number of surviving patients given fixed medical resources in the short run. Death panels (or as the Brits call it, NICE) is about trading off extra years of life against more consumption.

    • Agree: sayless
    • Replies: @Pincher Martin
  160. Bill says:
    @The Last Real Calvinist

    Maybe Americans aren’t willing to make the sacrifices. What we know for sure is that American politicians are too cowardly, stupid, or ignorant to ask. So far, at least.

  161. Bill says:
    @res

    Yeah. I’m on the pro-panic side, but I’m kind of nervous because, well, Bo know nuttin’.

  162. vhrm says:
    @eah

    i don’t have a strong opinion on the subject but how does he know what will happen in warmer weather?

    what’s he basing his predictions on?

    • Agree: res
    • Replies: @eugyppius
    , @eah
  163. Ed says:

    Saw an Al Jazeera clip of the coronavirus is in the UK and they appear to be more blasé about this a people than Trump. No ban on large gatherings. Folks just going on as normal. Boris Johnson said it’s hopeless to contain but they’re working to delay.

  164. Corvinus says:
    @Tex

    “First thing you’ve said that makes sense.”

    I didn’t expect you to get the reference, nor the sarcasm.

    • Replies: @Tex
  165. @International Jew

    The Italians have already given us quarantina.

    I’ve never seen Pulp Fiction or any of his other films. Though I’ve noticed from clips we share a fondness for the same old novelty tunes– “Coconut”, “Little Green Bag”, perhaps a few others.

  166. epebble says:
    @Pegasus

    Wow, I felt like I am watching Ken Burn’s Civil War just by listening to it.

    Looks like this may become a Katrina or Maria type event if we follow Italy’s trajectory.

    Another reporting on the strain they are going through:

    https://www.bloomberg.com/news/articles/2020-03-10/virus-spread-pushes-italian-hospitals-toward-breaking-point

  167. Precious says:
    @eah

    Director of virology at Berlin’s largest hospital says: it appears the coming warmer weather will not greatly affect the course of the epidemic, as previously suggested

    I am not seeing any rash of coronavirus cases popping up around the equator.

  168. @Bill

    Totally agree. That’s why I dispute that the Italians are using death panels at all. There’s no planning or foresight to their current medical decisions other than commonsense trade-offs that will change the minute they get more resources.

  169. Boethiuss says:
    @Mr. Anon

    Already, the fact that you – Boethiuss – are worked up about it leads me to think that it’s not a big deal.

    Could be. I might be one of the negative influencers Steve mentioned a couple of posts ago. But more likely, this is part of the problem. There’s too many of us who can’t or won’t actually think through a situation, so we rely on ad hoc cargo cult tea leaves to figure it out.

  170. Boethiuss says:
    @res

    Your concern trolling about Trump is tedious. I sincerely hope we aren’t going to be dealing with it from now through the November election.

    I don’t know tbh. Trump had a real good run from say October through February. Then basically, starting from South Carolina, it all turned south in a hurry. The political landscape changed quite a bit, even though it wasn’t necessarily dramatic.

  171. Boethiuss says:
    @Daniel Williams

    Compare to 348 murders in Baltimore, a city of 600,000: .0006.

    So this thing isn’t even as dangerous as regular-old American blacks, whom we haven’t quarantined ourselves against in sixty years.

    I think eugyppius’ line of comments in this back and forth are about right. But there’s one more thing that needs to be mentioned:

    Let’s say just for argument that 4000 Americans die from corona-virus related illness over the next 6 months. Medically speaking, long-term you could say that it’s not very significant unless you’re one of the 4000. But the economic and social disruptions that we are going to do so as get that outcome are going to be very big and affect nearly everybody.

    It’s those disruptions which are baked into the cake by now, and most likely will have a negative political impact on Trump, and probably us as well.

  172. @Daniel Williams

    That’s the thing with exponential growth. You can’t see it until the very end when it overwhelms you.

    We’ll know for sure in a few weeks.

    • Agree: Pincher Martin
    • Replies: @Pincher Martin
  173. @Interferon

    We’ll know for sure in a few weeks.

    Or sooner. By the time we are in Italy’s situation, which is perhaps no more than two weeks away, and losing a hundred people a day, I suspect that even the dumbasses will be acknowledging we have a crisis.

    • Replies: @eugyppius
  174. eugyppius says:
    @vhrm

    Christian Drosten on that NDR podcast appears to be talking about this preprint:

    https://www.medrxiv.org/content/10.1101/2020.03.04.20031112v1.full.pdf

    I haven’t really read it but I get the idea they’re predicting an initial pandemic wave perhaps peaking in western nations this summer, followed by seasonal winter re-occurrences. One of the authors is Lipsitch who introduces his views of seasonality and covid19 less formally here:

    https://ccdd.hsph.harvard.edu/will-covid-19-go-away-on-its-own-in-warmer-weather/

    He also links this paper he coauthored on humidity and covid19 (apologies, this has almost surely been linked in this thread or another one):

    https://www.medrxiv.org/content/10.1101/2020.02.12.20022467v1

    The upshot is he thinks no big effects from weather by itself.

    • Thanks: res, vhrm
    • Replies: @res
  175. Boethiuss says:
    @Mr. Anon

    What complete crap. What guy? Jeb Bush? Ted Cruz? Little Marco? Hillary? You think they would do any better?

    Yes, Trump is a failure as far as most of us are concerned. That doesn’t mean anyone else in 2016 was or would have been any better. The country is always run by the same people and it is always screwed – it doesn’t matter who happens to warm the seat at the Oval Office desk.

    Trump fans always like to rationalize themselves this way when the chips are down, but that doesn’t mean it’s true.

    From say Apr-Dec of last year, when politics was too despondent to care about in America, I started reading more about the UK. During that time, Boris Johnson won Brexit, and furthermore, since he has been Prime Minister he has been beavering away reengineering the UK economy toward the north of England (the deplorables of the UK) and away from London.

    This line abut “yeah but there was no one else any better” is always asserted, never actually demonstrated. You may even believe it, but if you do you should probably be paying better attention.

  176. eugyppius says:
    @Pincher Martin

    The irony is that you avoid eyewatering mortality by massive public health interventions, and then you read about covid19 hysteria because the mortality is low. Anyway, it is not the dead people, who do not require ventilators, who make the public health crisis. It is the critically sick who cannot breathe who do, and when almost all your resources must be spent keeping them alive, the full picture of mortality and damage is not to be had from official covid19 deaths anyway.

    • Replies: @Art Deco
    , @Pincher Martin
  177. eah says:
    @vhrm

    … how does he know what will happen in warmer weather? — what’s he basing his predictions on?

    Here is the relevant text from the article (in German):

    Bisher war die große Hoffnung von Virologen und Politikern, dass der Frühling mit seinen wärmeren Temperaturen ein Abflauen der Corona-Erkrankungen mit sich bringt. Das Ziel wäre dann gewesen, in einem vergleichsweise ruhigen Sommer genügend Zeit zu gewinnen, um das Gesundheitssystem auf eine voraussehbare Infektionswelle im Winter vorzubereiten und die Kliniken optimal auszustatten.

    Genau das hätte ich bis letzte Woche Donnerstag noch so gesagt. Aber im Moment ist meine Einschätzung eher, dass wir wahrscheinlich doch eine direkt durchlaufende Infektionswelle bekommen. Wir müssen damit rechnen, dass ein Maximum der Fälle in der Zeit von Juni bis August auftreten wird”, sagte Drosten im neuesten NDR-Podcast zum Coronavirus.

    Grund für seine neue Einschätzung sei eine neue Studie einer weltweit führenden US-amerikanischen Forschungsgruppe. “Diese Modellrechnung sagt voraus, dass der Temperatureffekt auf dieses Virus relativ klein sein wird.” Somit könnte es durchaus zu einer “Sommerwelle” kommen, in der sich das Virus weiter stark ausbreitet.

    To translate the gist of the highlighted parts: Previously, many were expecting/hoping that warm(er) temps would help slow the spread of the virus; that was his medical opinion (Einschätzung) too — but due to a new study by leading American researchers (“weltweit führenden US-amerikanischen Forschungsgruppe”), he has since changed his view: their model suggests any effect of higher temps will likely be smaller than expected/hoped.

    Neither the group nor the study is detailed in the article; it may not be too hard to find out — perhaps he mentions it in the linked podcast, which I did not listen to.

    You can run these articles thru an on-line xlator — they do a fairly good job.

    • Thanks: vhrm
  178. Jack D says:
    @Daniel Williams

    I think black speech in part reflects the speech patterns of the rural South, so old fashioned usages such as “looking at a picture” for “watching a movie” are still heard, especially among older blacks.

  179. Jack D says:
    @Anon

    If you look at the number of ICU beds/100,000 people, it ain’t much. It really wouldn’t take a big epidemic to overwhelm that number. At that point hospitals have no choice but to triage people and allocate the available beds to the people they think have the highest chance of survival.

  180. Tex says:
    @Corvinus

    I’m a regular Vox Day reader. And I’m highly sarcastic.

  181. Mr. Anon says:
    @Boethiuss

    Trump fans always like to rationalize themselves this way when the chips are down, but that doesn’t mean it’s true.

    I don’t count myself as a Trump fan. I voted for him, not for what he is, but for what he promised. He betrayed that promise. I wouldn’t vote for him again.

    Boris Johnson is probably as much a globalist tool as any other politician in the UK or the US. And why should Boris Johnson be relevant anyway? Is he running for office in the US?

    Your monomania is boring.

    • Replies: @Boethiuss
  182. Art Deco says:
    @eugyppius

    What’s curious is how much the proportion of cases deemed critical varies. In Italy, 10% of all active cases are classified as ‘critical’. In Spain, it’s 5%; in France, 5%; in Germany, < 1%; in the U.S., 1%; South Korea, < 1%. Some of this appears to be a life-cycle factor. As the proportion who've recovered increases, the share of the residue classified as 'critical' increases.

    Note the Diamond Princess as of today:

    1% dead
    46.7% recovered
    47.7% ill, not critical
    4.6% critical.

    • Replies: @Pincher Martin
    , @eugyppius
  183. @eugyppius

    The irony is that you avoid eyewatering mortality by massive public health interventions, and then you read about covid19 hysteria because the mortality is low.

    The low mortality of the coronanvirus? Give it time.

    Massive public health interventions causing high mortality? What are you talking about?

    Anyway, it is not the dead people, who do not require ventilators, who make the public health crisis. It is the critically sick who cannot breathe who do, and when almost all your resources must be spent keeping them alive…

    Have you been paying attention to Italy? Before people actually die, they need ventilators, and they often need them for several days before they die. And once you hook up a ventilator to someone you hope to save (but aren’t sure you will), that’s one less ventilator you can use on someone else.

    • Replies: @eugyppius
  184. @Art Deco

    Depends on whether you test as many people as you can, as in South Korea, or just those with obvious symptoms who seek out help, as in Italy.

    Depends on the quality of medical care.

    Depends on age demographics.

  185. @Boethiuss

    Trump fans always like to rationalize themselves this way when the chips are down, but that doesn’t mean it’s true.

    I’m not a Trump fan, but no one else in the GOP could’ve run the campaign he ran in 2o16 and won with the coalition he built. His election was all the more remarkable because he had the entire GOP establishment against him,

  186. eugyppius says:
    @Art Deco

    One I guess obvious thing I noticed is that very very roughly, the less advanced your national pandemic is (based roughly on the % of cases open vs. % of cases resolved), the lower the critical proportion of *current* cases is:

    China, most advanced, reporting 80% of all cases resolved in recovery/death. Of remaining cases, 16k, a full 28% are critical. These are the lingering ill.

    Italy, the most advanced in the west. 16% of cases resolved, currently 10% critical: Covid19 has made serious inroads through all vulnerable populations in Lombardy. The young and healthy recover much more quickly leaving a preponderance of older sicker people in the system.

    Spain, 5% critical: 10% cases resolved. A little anomalous, I guess testing less vigorously?

    France, 5% critical: 2,5% cases resolved. Still on the upward path.

    Germany, <1% critical: 1,7% of cases resolved. Just taking off.

    • Replies: @Art Deco
  187. eugyppius says:
    @Pincher Martin

    I think you misunderstood my comment, which was agreeing with you. Mortality is as low as it is in places like Korea and Taiwan because of widespread efforts at containment and treatment. But then we read that mortality is low in Korea and Taiwan so covid19 is no big deal even though next to nothing is being done in Europe outside Italy.

    Have you been paying attention to Italy?

    Very much so. Which is why I was trying to say that mortality itself does not indicate the crisis that covid19 promises to inflict. It is the number of people your healthcare system must suddenly prevent from dying, because they cannot breathe, that is the crisis.

    • Replies: @Pincher Martin
  188. res says:
    @eugyppius

    Thank you! Those links give an excellent discussion of seasonality, absolute humidity, and their likely impact on the disease progression. Some notes.

    The first link looks at province by province data in China. The link between AH and R0 is clear (see Figure 1), but there is one notable outlier in Hubei (i.e. Wuhan). In other provinces the only time R0 rises above 2 is when the AH is VERY low (eyeballing panel A about 2 g/kg which corresponds to a dew point of -10 C). In Hubei the R0 is about 2.8 with an AH of about 6 g/kg which corresponds to a dew point a bit below 5 C.

    The paper gives an equation for AH calculated from RH and temp. Might be useful.

    One quibble with that paper is the regression analysis in Table 1 appears to ignore the correlation of AH and temperature. And they don’t give the correlation so we could judge how important that is.

    I wonder about the importance of temperature/AH variation. Is a week of low temp/AH enough to cause an epidemic to blow up? That might not show up appropriately in the averages. This site has historical weather data for Wuhan which might be helpful for testing this idea:
    https://rp5.ru/Weather_archive_in_Wuhan_(airport)

    The second link is a short, easy, and valuable read. It covers multiple factors contributing to flu season typically occurring in winter. I do have one quibble with it. I think his analogy to the 2009 pandemic is questionable given that the unusual start in April-May is a sign (IMHO) of something unusual. Because of this, I think his analogy indicates a possibility rather than something likely. I hope I am right, but he seems both knowledgeable and sensible so who knows.

    The third link is complicated. I’ll let the abstract speak for itself.

    There is an urgent need to project how transmission of the novel betacoronavirus SARS-CoV-2 will unfold in coming years. These dynamics will depend on seasonality, the duration of immunity, and the strength of cross-immunity to/from the other human coronaviruses. Using data from the United States, we measured how these factors affect transmission of human betacoronaviruses HCoV-OC43 and HCoV-HKU1. We then built a mathematical model to simulate transmission of SARS-CoV-2 through the year 2025. We project that recurrent wintertime outbreaks of SARS-CoV-2 will probably occur after an initial pandemic wave. We summarize the full range of plausible transmission scenarios and identify key data still needed to distinguish between them, most importantly longitudinal serological studies to determine the duration of immunity to SARS-CoV-2.

    TLDR: Thanks for the great overview. I think the big takeaway is we can’t assume things will get better on their own with warmer/wetter conditions. Countermeasures are still needed–if only to be safe. I think those measures should be targeted most heavily at the most climatologically vulnerable sites, but could be wrong.

    • Thanks: eugyppius
  189. Art Deco says:
    @eugyppius

    Italy, the most advanced in the west.

    It wasn’t. It got dramatically worse quite rapidly in Italy. The disease appeared there coincident with its appearance in Britain, France, Germany, the US, &c. IIRC, it appeared in the Far East (outside of China) ‘ere it hit Europe.

    • Replies: @eugyppius
  190. @Boethiuss

    Trump had a real good run from say October through February. Then basically, starting from South Carolina, it all turned south in a hurry.

    Boethiuss says:
    October 19, 2016 at 11:16 am GMT
    @reiner Tor
    So what if I were you illiterate retard. Trump is still going to lose, and you were the ones who put him there.
    https://www.unz.com/isteve/whats-wrong-with-this-picture/#comment-1613926

    Boethiuss says:
    October 19, 2016 at 8:28 am GMT • 200 Words
    @Desiderius
    …First of all, after the election, we’re all going to be despondent, and nobody except Hillary’s transition team is going to be paying attention to politics for a while. And just as important, the top of the ticket is a lost cause so the importance of the downticket races is magnified….
    https://www.unz.com/isteve/whats-wrong-with-this-picture/#comment-1613841

    Boethiuss says:
    October 18, 2016 at 8:31 pm GMT • 100 Words
    @Difference Maker
    … The heart of the matter is accepting responsibility for the failure of the Trump campaign….
    https://www.unz.com/isteve/whats-wrong-with-this-picture/#comment-1613241

    Boethiuss says:
    October 17, 2016 at 1:31 pm GMT • 100 Words
    @reiner Tor

    …No, Trump is going to lose because he’s a shit candidate and a shit person, and ultimately there has to be something about our politics besides adoration for Donald Trump.

    You fucked up, we all have to live with it, and “the GOPe” is going to do as best as they can to get us out of it.
    https://www.unz.com/isteve/whats-wrong-with-this-picture/#comment-1611552

  191. Precious says:
    @Boethiuss

    I don’t know tbh. Trump had a real good run from say October through February. Then basically, starting from South Carolina, it all turned south in a hurry. The political landscape changed quite a bit, even though it wasn’t necessarily dramatic.

    Boethiuss, I think your prognostications regarding Trump’s political future might improve if you add the following premise as true to all of your internal assumptions. That premise being…everything you see, hear, and read about Trump is all part of a James Bond movie.

    And Trump is James Bond.

  192. eugyppius says:
    @Art Deco

    I don’t know. Higher number of chinese tourists than even France, combined with the general EU attitude of not doing much and hoping for the best, kept the advanced nature of their problem hidden until it blew up in their faces. So the whole time, they really were ahead of the curve, you just couldn’t tell.

    • Replies: @Art Deco
  193. Coemgen says:
    @George

    It’s bearable in the U.S. while it remains a super-zip pandemic. Once it hits the hoi-poloi things will get a lot more interesting.

  194. Boethiuss says:
    @Mr. Anon

    Boris Johnson is probably as much a globalist tool as any other politician in the UK or the US. And why should Boris Johnson be relevant anyway? Is he running for office in the US?

    Well yeah, that’s the point. The premise behind Trump’s campaigns is that mainstream politicians, especially mainstream Republicans, are hopeless in terms of being able to do anything to address immigration, or kinetic foreign policy, or whatever.

    But that’s bullshit. The laws of politics work for mainstream Republicans as much as anybody else.

    As a consequence, because we’ve made this emotional investment in repudiating GOPe, the base is compelled to follow Trump into whatever rabbit hole he digs himself int0, and conveniently ignored that he isn’t delivering for us either. And if I or anybody else points this out, the typical response is to simply flail and sputter-Trump style.

    That’s all pretty familiar. What is not familiar is the blind spot to the possibility that mainstream politics actually can, in general work like it’s supposed to. That’s the point of Boris Johnson. Even if he is a globalist tool, given his motivations and the situation that surrounds him, he’s executing very effectively for populist policy. We can’t get that here because the likes of most of us here simply refuse to countenance the possibility.

    • Replies: @Mr. Anon
  195. Mr. Anon says:
    @Boethiuss

    I gather you said some things. What they are, I cannot say; I didn’t read it.

    Like I said, you are boring.

    In future, just write “yada, yada, yada”. It will save you some time.

    • Replies: @Boethiuss
  196. JimDandy says:
    @Boethiuss

    “Boethiuss” my ass. We all know it’s you, Hillary.

  197. Art Deco says:
    @eugyppius

    I think the tentative conclusion at this time is that the virus was transmitted from Bavaria to Italy. It’s not ‘just taking off’ in Germany. It’s had a different course in Germany.

    • Replies: @eugyppius
  198. HA says:
    @RichardTaylor

    “Italy must have had deep contact with some Chinese recently.”

    The fashion industry employs many seamstresses and other textile drones, a significant fraction of which are Chinese:

    Official statistics indicate there are at least 320,794 Chinese citizens in Italy, although these figures do not account for illegal immigration, former Chinese citizens who have acquired Italian nationality or Italian-born people of Chinese descent.

    Prato, Tuscany has the largest concentration of Chinese people in Italy and all of Europe. It has the second largest population of Chinese people overall in Italy after Milan.

    See also: [Milan,] The Italian Town Overwhelmed By Chinese Migrants

  199. eugyppius says:
    @Art Deco

    Right, I did not see that from Galli. Thanks.
    The imponderables of testing and the imponderables of the early circumstances must still be the explanation.
    By the numbers, Germany’s cases are increasing at the same exponential rate as Italy’s at about an 8-day lag; the progression is the same, the caveat being that Germany perhaps knows more cases at this point than Italy did because of better testing and seems more advanced when it is a few days further back.
    Some accident very early in Italy’s pandemic put them eight days ahead of everyone else. That could be quite minor, like Patient 1 in Lombardy simply having an active social life and infecting so many people so early. Whoever Patient 0 was, he left no other footprint in Bavaria if that is where he came from, such that Webasto seems to remain at the foundation of the Bavarian outbreak.

  200. Anonymous[260] • Disclaimer says:
    @Coag

    What if the 55 year old guy is white and the 95 year old is a kinsman of the doctor making the decision?

  201. Boethiuss says:
    @Mr. Anon

    In future, just write “yada, yada, yada”. It will save you some time.

    Who’s worse, me for writing it or you for replying to it?

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