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Affordable family formation

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Here are excerpts from a review I published in in 2003 of a book written by Massachusetts Democratic Senate candidate Elizabeth Warren and her daughter:The two authors note: "The brunt of the price increases has fallen on families with children. Data from the Federal Reserve show that the median home value for the av
The Obama 2012 campaign has put up a "Life of Julia" website that explains how the Obama Administration would provide cradle to grave welfare state benefits for an apparently never-married single mother named Julia, who would be financially crazy to vote Republican. It's hard to disagree with Obama's logic, and indeed, being a single woman appears... Read More
With the advent of Texas governor Rick Perry in the GOP Presidential race, there has been a lot of talk about the large number of jobs created in Texas v. the rest of the country. Much of the liberal critique of Perry (Paul Krugman, Ezra Klein, Matthew Yglesias) is finally reflecting my 2005 analysis of Texas... Read More
The Guardian takes time out from whooping the anti-Murdoch brouhaha to address today's most pressing issue:
The roots of my theory of Affordable Family Formation influencing which states are blue and which are red in elections goes back to before the 2000 election, but it emerged in mature form in the weeks and months following the 2004 election. (Here's my 12/20/2004 American Conservative article Baby Gap and my subsequent 12/12/2004 VDARE... Read More
At VDARE, I review the new E-book by Tyler Cowen, The Great Stagnation:According to Cowen, America benefited in the past from three main kinds of “low-hanging fruit:” Sound familiar? Read the whole thing there. My old articles are archived at -- Steve Sailer
The conclusion of a New York Times article "Riches May Not Help Papua New Guinea" on the influx of money into the New Guinea highlands from an Exxon natural gas pipeline: Here's a video of part of the amazing 1983 documentary First Contact
Catching up on things I should have noted earlier, here's a fine article on demographics and affordable family formation by Jonathan V. Last in The Weekly Standard. (The one suggestion I'd make is that I think Last understates the Hispanic Total Fertility Rate: 2.3 is more like the American-born Hispanic TFR, not the total Hispanic... Read More
From my column, which reviews the new book by the Israeli-American think tank known as the Jewish People Policy Planning Institute:As a long-time admirer of Israel, I’ve come to envy especially the freedom of discussion that Israeli culture permits on fundamental questions of demographics.Consider, for example, the new book 2030: Alternative Futures for the... Read More
Time reports: Hekmati's experience is typical of young Iranians, who are finding themselves increasingly priced out of the marriage market. During the tenure of President Mahmoud Ahmadinejad, real estate prices have soared across the country, but especially in Tehran, where they have risen as much as 150%. Economists have blamed the spike on Ahmadinejad's disastrous... Read More
On Saturday, my 92-year-old father and I went to a relative's wedding at a hotel named Shutters on the Beach at 1 Pico Blvd. in Santa Monica. It was about 95 degrees in the San Fernando Valley, but it was only 75 as we drove down Pico. The traffic kept getting worse and worse as... Read More
I'm participating this week in an online discussion at the Talking Points Memo Cafe Book Club on political scientist (and statistics wizard) Andrew Gelman's 2008 book Red State, Blue State, Rich State, Poor State: Why Americans Vote the Way They Do.You can read my first contribution here. Here's an excerpt from mine:As a little thought... Read More
Here's an excerpt in which I uncharacteristically show some sympathy for Karl Rove and George Bush from my new column:It’s important to fully understand why the lessons the two Texans, Rove and Bush, learned in their home state didn’t apply in other heavily Hispanic states. So far, the mortgage meltdown hasn’t been as bad... Read More
My wife raises an interesting point that I've never heard anyone discuss. Many of the single women of a certain age who are still actively in the husband-seeking market spend a fortune on themselves to look good and be in the right (i.e., expensive) places to meet Mr. Right. Thus, an awful lot of them... Read More
I have to confess that I wasn't paying that much attention to who would win the election. What I was really looking forward to was the distribution of votes within states. Based on the extremely similar results in 2000 and 2004, I had invented a novel and ambitious theory explaining why American states vote in... Read More
Here's the opening of the Sarah Palin article I wrote last week for the upcoming issue of The American Conservative: Why, in one uproarious week of American politicking that not even H.L. Mencken would have expected, has the once unknown Governor of Alaska, Sarah Palin, outraged roughly one-half of the country and overjoyed the other... Read More
A couple of writers for Slate get it (almost) about how the Palins are the exemplars of my theory of Affordable Family Formation:Actually, the 18-year-old fiance looks quite capable of doing a man's work and earning a man's pay in the Alaskan economy. I have no idea if he, personally, will turn out to be... Read More
Via Matt Yglesias, I found SurveyUSA's tables of Presidential polling in all 50 states (but not DC), as of early March. In each state, 600 voters were surveyed on McCain vs. Obama and McCain vs. Clinton match-ups.They show McCain losing narrowly in the Electoral College against either Democrat. But that's not what I'm interested in.... Read More
As I've been pointing out for years, in both 2000 and 2004, George W. Bush's share of the vote by state correlated closely with the rate of family formation among whites, which in turn correlated with the affordability of housing and decent schooling.Will this pattern be seen again in 2008?Keep in mind that the theory... Read More
In contrast to Saturday's sad Muslim fellow in Egypt who can't afford to start a family, today we take a look at a jolly Muslim chap in England who quit his job teaching math because he gets paid more to sit at home in Manchester with his wife, who is also his first cousin, and... Read More
The NYT reports on how the rising age of marriage in Middle Eastern countries contributes to the rising Islamic fervor.Egypt has lots of education but few seem to learn any skills worth paying for:Mr. Sayyid’s path to stalemate began years ago, in school. Like most Egyptians educated in public schools, his course of study was... Read More
The February 11 issue of The American Conservative, the one with John McCain and his crypto-slogan "Invade the World / Invite the World" on the cover, features my long article "Value Voters," which sums up my theory of how the affordability of family formation drives the Red State -Blue State divide. I've published it in... Read More
Pundit Virginia Postrel, who saved Dr. Sally Satel's life in 2006 by donating one of her kidneys, now has breast cancer and just started chemotherapy. Fortunately, there is a new monoclonal antibody called Herceptin that she will be receiving in addition to chemo.Virginia also has a new article in November issue of The AtlanticMy published... Read More
Informative Michale Barone article in the WSJ: The Realignment of America The native-born are leaving "hip" cities for the heartland.BY MICHAEL BARONE Tuesday, May 8, 2007 12:01 a.m. EDTIn 1950, when I was in kindergarten in Detroit, the city had a population of (rounded off) 1,850,000. Today the latest census estimate for Detroit is 886,000,... Read More
Steve Sailer
About Steve Sailer

Steve Sailer is a journalist, movie critic for Taki's Magazine, columnist, and founder of the Human Biodiversity discussion group for top scientists and public intellectuals.

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