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2008 Election

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My new column outlines a simple rule for electoral success: Places that white Americans move to vote Republican in the future, while places that immigrants move to vote Democratic down the road: even Dallas and Houston.In 1980, I met on a train through Italy a couple of English soccer hooligans who were headed for... Read More
Here is the opening of my new column on how thinking through the pros and cons of one of the odder bits of political lore can help explain more general phenomena:Arguably, the 1845 treaty of annexation gave the new state of Texas the right to split into five states.With modern Texas providing relatively effective... Read More
Voting data wizard Andrew Gelman has a very good post up: "Where does the Hispanic vote really matter?" reviewing the 2008 election. His conclusion: not too many places.I said much the same things immediately after the 2000 and 2004 election. Hispanics are not a crucial "swing" vote. They're more of a "flow" vote in that... Read More
The long-running General Social Survey includes a 10 word vocabulary test, from which you can roughly estimate IQ over large enough sample sizes. (Of course, it's biased in favor of people who are smarter with words than with numbers or images.) Audacious Epigone looks up the average IQs of white voters for each Presidential candidate... Read More
I would assume that Sarah Palin is about as smart as her erstwhile opponent, Vice President-Elect Joe Biden, a man who has gone through life with a giant chip on his shoulder about his IQ. Whether that's smart enough to be President, I'll leave up to you.On the other hand, I'm sure Biden would beat... Read More
Here's an excerpt in which I uncharacteristically show some sympathy for Karl Rove and George Bush from my new column:It’s important to fully understand why the lessons the two Texans, Rove and Bush, learned in their home state didn’t apply in other heavily Hispanic states. So far, the mortgage meltdown hasn’t been as bad... Read More
A married Mormon who gave $1000 to the Proposition 8 anti-gay marriage campaign has resigned as director of a Sacramento musical theater company after being nationally targeted in the ongoing Big Gay Hissy Fit of 2008.According to the exit poll, for whatever it's worth, the key to the passage of Prop. 8 was the huge... Read More
Lots of good stuff in my column this week, so read the whole thing, but here's an excerpt of things you won't find elsewhere on what's wrong with exit polls in general and why they're no good for determining an ethnic groups' share of the electorate.Unfortunately, exit polling is becoming less reliable each election.... Read More
State McCain 08 Bush 04 Change Hawaii 24.8% 45.3% -20.5% Nevada 39.5% 50.5% -11.0% Indiana 49.2% 59.9% -10.8% North Dakota 52.9% 62.9% -9.9% Nebraska 56.8% 65.9% -9.1% Utah 62.5% 71.5% -9.0% Montana 50.1% 59.1% -8.9% Delaware 37.0% 45.8% -8.8% California 36.9% 44.4% -
in the title of his 1995 book:White self-congratulation is a dominant motif today since it's hard to congratulate African-American culture on Obama, at least with a straight face. Here we are, 43 years after the 1965 Voting Rights Act, and the first black President turns out to have had a completely non-black upbringing sequestered out... Read More
From the NYT:"Blindsided"??? I pointed out that Rev. Wright was going to be a problem for Obama 50 weeks beforehand.The general cluelessness of America's white political elites regarding anything touching race is astounding. David Axelrod, wh
I have to confess that I wasn't paying that much attention to who would win the election. What I was really looking forward to was the distribution of votes within states. Based on the extremely similar results in 2000 and 2004, I had invented a novel and ambitious theory explaining why American states vote in... Read More
Unlike my previous book (my 900-page, but never-released, psychobiography of the subtle childhood dynamics that made John F. Kerry who he is today*), interest in the topic of my new book looks like it will remain strong for the next four years.-------------------* Just kidding.My published articles are archived at -- Steve Sailer
Here's the national exit poll via CNN (in all these, first column Obama, second McCain, third Misc.)By the way, somebody should make a copy of it as it stands now because in a few hours CNN will come along and change all the exit poll splits to make them reflect the actual vote splits.Vote by... Read More
Clearly, the 2008 primary system was broken, both for the GOP and the Democrats. The GOP's large fraction of early winner-take-all primaries resulted in a nominee who, through, sheer luck wrapped it up on February 5, then didn't do much for the next nine months except get even older.The Democrats avoided that problem, but too... Read More
From yesterday's column (which is where you can find all the documenting links):We’re going to hear all over again about how crucial the Hispanic vote was to Obama’s win. It’s bunk.You know—how the GOP killed itself by not favoring open borders abjectly enough, and so forth and so on. Hysterical pundits will announce that... Read More
Here's my new pre-election column. An excerpt:Mostly, he just talked about what a hero he is.Okay, he was for offshore oil drilling. And then there’s … uh … nuclear power plants! And, well, some other stuff, no doubt.The problem is that the things McCain really cares about, like Invading the World and Inviting the... Read More
Mickey writes:As a summer job in 1981, I worked for a lady who worked for Mayor Tom. I shook the Mayor's hand once: A tall, impressive man with an unusual look to him. I thought he looked quite American Indian, much like basketball player Scottie Pippen does. Oddly enough, he also looked much like Anwar... Read More
The LA Times walks around a Latino neighborhood in Las Vegas and finds growing support for Obama among the multitudinous "homeowners" who have defaulted on their mortgages and are awaiting foreclosure.This helps explain a minor puzzle of recent history. As you'll recall, the 2004 exit poll initially reported that Bush had won 44% of the... Read More
I don't endorse political candidates, but The American Conservative asked me and 20 others what we thought of the election. I replied:Both major party candidates have campaigned against partisan bickering. And yet we are paying a high price for Washington’s bipartisan consensus. Perhaps the least controversial set of programs in all of Washington—the manifold government... Read More
As you may have noticed, John McCain hasn't had any kind of theme to his campaign. He can't go after Obama on what Obama is vulnerable on because that's all tied into race, so Obama gets a free pass on that.What John McCain should have done in this race is embrace his Grumpy Old Manness... Read More
Way back in August, I described Joe Biden as "kind of a bozo." But then the whole world decided that they either hated or loved Sarah Palin, and everybody decided that therefore, through some sort of reverse osmosis process, Biden must be a Steady Hand on the Tiller etc etc.Nah, he's a garrulous old hack,... Read More
Via Craptocracy, we learn that three days beforemight have discovered that the Nigerian hit is a celebration of that country's most infamous export, advance-fee email fraud (sometimes called 419 fraud, after the relevant section of the Nigerian penal code
From "McCain Plans Fiercer Strategy Against Obama" in the Washington Post: But not all that fierce: Wright is ten times as important a figure in Obama's life as Rezko, and 100 times as important as Ayers. But Wright is off limits because he's black. I figured that's what would happen back in February.My published articles... Read More
Steven Erlanger writes in the NYT:They value sophistication above almost anything, and so they regard their own hyperactive president, Nicolas Sarkozy, with his messy romantic life and model-singer wife, as “Sarko the American.”But this year has been difficult for the French. Mr. Sarkozy has generally supported American foreign policy and has praised the United States’... Read More
A couple of weeks back, I suggested that Obama mention that he plays poker while McCain likes to roll the dice, poker being a game of skill while craps is, well, a crapshoot. Earlier this week, Sen. Barack ObamaMy published articles are archived at -- Steve Sailer
John McCain, who either will or won't debate Barack Obama on Friday night, announced Thursday evening that he has accepted the resignation of campaign manager Rick Davis, after revelations that Davis was accepting payola from Freddie Mac, and that his campaign tactics this week have been masterminded by Don King and the ghost of Bobby... Read More
What's the deal with McCain suspending his campaign?Greg Cochran suggests, in the mode of Robert Heinlein's Double Star, it's because the actor who will serve as his double on the campaign trail until McCain gets over some undisclosed medical problem hasn't quite recovered from his appearance-altering plastic surgery yet. Of course, in Double Star the... Read More
Huh?My guess is that he's got the cold/flu thingie that's going around and doesn't want to admit it, so he's blaming the fiscal crisis rather than his physical problems. But who knows...My published articles are archived at -- Steve Sailer
John McCain hasn't mentioned Rev. Jeremiah Wright in months, so I imagine he won't start in Friday's debate ... But here's something I posted last March on the eve of Obama's 5,000 word oration on the edifying ineffability of his nuanced thoughtfulness about race (which, by the way, happened right after the Bear Stearns collapse):That... Read More
A factoid/metaphor that Obama should try to get to the public's attention is that he plays poker while McCain loves to roll the dice. Which kind of man do you want to see conducting America's foreign policy?My published articles are archived at -- Steve Sailer
Senator Obama said:Speaking of how stupid we are, here's a summary of historian Rick Shenkman's book, Just How Stupid Are We? Facing the Truth About the American Voter.My published articles are archived at -- Steve Sailer
Personally, I'm all for them, at least when it comes to anybody who wants to be our President or Vice President.Obama has been all high-minded about the evils of negative campaigning for the last 18 months (out of the purity of the Chicago politician's heart, no doubt, rather than out of any instinct for self-preservation).... Read More
Question: How many speakers at the Republican convention last week mentioned Rev. Dr. Jeremiah A. Wright, Jr.?I did text searches on the speeches by McCain, Palin, Giuliani, Lieberman, Romney, and Steele (the main black speaker) and didn't find any mentions of "Wright," "pastor," "minister," "church," or "Trinity."As a commenter suggested, you might think that keynote... Read More
On the blog, Peter Brimelow suggests:Obama could specifically offer McCain an agreement in which they both pledge to work together to pass in 2009 the
I don't have anything to say because I didn't see the speech. I was too preoccupied with studying the psychodemographics of frolf (see below). (I can always catch up with it on Youtube, right?) So, have your say in the Comments.By the way, the original speechwriter was apparently American Conservative contributor Matthew Scully, so if... Read More
How about we all pat ourselves on the back for the great job this country did in vetting the Democratic nominee for President? After all, by the middle of March 2008, when the vast majority of Americans first heard about the Rev. Dr. Jeremiah A. Wright, Jr., there were still eight (count 'em, eight!) states... Read More
A female reader calls my attention to a minor article about Bristol Palin's fiance attending the GOP convention on the website of the San Francisco Chronicle, a fairly minor big city newspaper. And yet, in the ten hours that the article has been up on the SF Chronicle's website, it has garnered (let me check... Read More
Over at The American Scene, the always sensible Noah Millman returns from the Labor Day Weekend to make some sensible comments about Sarah Palin: e.g., she might have made a better Keynote speaker, like Obama in 2004, than VP candidate. (By the way, though, how often do you think Democrats have kicked themselves since 2004... Read More
In my column, I return to Obama's relationships with so many unsavory Chicago characters, which has been so baffling to outsiders. Here's the beginning, but please read the whole thing to understand how Chicago works. You've seen some of it in blog posts before, but I'm finally pulling it all together in a coherent... Read More
I haven't checked any out of these shocking rumors being heavily flogged by anti-Palin parties such as Andrew Sullivan and Daily Kos for factuality, I just want to give you my impression of how they'll strike average Americans (especially average American women):- Palin was already pregnant when she got married two decades ago!Let's see, you're... Read More
Scott McConnell at @TAC provides a helpful analogy:My published articles are archived at -- Steve Sailer
Palin's record in turning out the corrupt, nepotistic old guard in Alaska will allow her to legitimately go after Obama's role as a facilitator of the Rezko-Blagojevich corruption in Illinois. With the whole world to choose from, Obama chose to become a Chicago politician, and not one of those Quixotic reformers who pop up there... Read More
McCain's choice for Veep of the young lady governor of Alaska, Sarah Palin, seems, initially, like a good way out of the box of Romney (who would make a decent President but a poor VP candidate) vs. Lieberman. As I always say, there are 300,000,000 million people in this country, more than a few of... Read More
Robert Novak (who, I thought, was retired) is reporting that John McCain really, truly wants to pick Democratic Sen. Joe Lieberman as his vice president:Meanwhile Karl Rove tries to get him to take boring old Mitt Romney, and tried to talk Lieberman into withdrawing his name. Fox News says:Come on, John, don't be a wimp... Read More
Steve Sailer
About Steve Sailer

Steve Sailer is a journalist, movie critic for Taki's Magazine, columnist, and founder of the Human Biodiversity discussion group for top scientists and public intellectuals.

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