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The Worst and Best Counties for Black Homicides
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Below are the 100 counties with the most black residents ranked in descending order of annual homicide victimization rate among blacks (years 2018-21).

Two of the top three are rare “independent cities:” both St. Louis City and Baltimore City split apart in the 19th Century from St. Louis County and Baltimore County, respectively. They are deemed “county equivalents” and are included in federal databases of counties.

But it’s confusing because both #1 urban St. Louis City (99 homicides per 100,000) and #5 suburban St. Louis County (e.g., Ferguson, 61) have the same name. Suburban Baltimore County #44 at 28.

Jackson County, Missouri (Kansas City) is #2 at 78. Missouri blacks weren’t always this bad. Here’s the CDC graph of homicide deaths 1999-2020 for black Missouri residents:

That sure looks like the Ferguson Effect. (Michael Brown died on August 7, 2014, beginning the first BLM Era).

It looks like the top 10 worst counties for blacks dying by homicide (overwhelmingly at the hands of other blacks) include seven in red states and three in blue states (Baltimore City, Cook County, Philadelphia County), although Missouri was often considered a purple state until it got very red during the Ferguson Effect.

In general, the worst black homicide rates tend to be in the middle of the country, the vast Mississippi and Great Lakes watersheds. In general, it looks like the worst locales feature a lot of left-behinds of the Rust Belt.

Eastern seaboard counties like Baltimore City, Philadelphia County, and the District of Columbia perhaps reflect poor local governance. The blacks of the New York and Boston areas are doing better, as are places that blacks move to for jobs and pensioned retirements, such as Texas, Florida, and Georgia.

Rank Residence County Black Homicide Rate
1 St. Louis city, MO 99
2 Jackson County, MO 78
3 Baltimore city, MD 71
4 Orleans Parish, LA 62
5 St. Louis County, MO 61
6 Jefferson County, KY 60
7 Hinds County, MS 57
8 Cook County, IL 56
9 Marion County, IN 56
10 Philadelphia County, PA 56
11 District of Columbia, DC 54
12 Milwaukee County, WI 54
13 Jefferson County, AL 53
14 East Baton Rouge Parish, LA 53
15 Lake County, IN 52
16 Caddo Parish, LA 50
17 Allegheny County, PA 49
18 Shelby County, TN 48
19 Cuyahoga County, OH 46
20 Richmond city, VA 44
21 Wayne County, MI 44
22 Pulaski County, AR 42
23 Jefferson Parish, LA 42
24 Montgomery County, AL 41
25 Charleston County, SC 41
26 Montgomery County, OH 40
27 Erie County, NY 39
28 Hamilton County, OH 38
29 Franklin County, OH 38
30 Duval County, FL 37
31 Mobile County, AL 36
32 Monroe County, NY 36
33 Oklahoma County, OK 36
34 Davidson County, TN 35
35 Contra Costa County, CA 35
36 Norfolk city, VA 35
37 Alameda County, CA 34
38 Miami-Dade County, FL 32
39 Fulton County, GA 32
40 New Castle County, DE 31
41 Delaware County, PA 30
42 Harris County, TX 28
43 Macomb County, MI 28
44 Baltimore County, MD 28
45 Durham County, NC 28
46 Clark County, NV 28
47 San Bernardino County, CA 27
48 Hennepin County, MN 27
49 Guilford County, NC 26
50 Bexar County, TX 26
51 DeKalb County, GA 26
52 Dallas County, TX 26
53 Los Angeles County, CA 26
54 Maricopa County, AZ 26
55 Chatham County, GA 25
56 Richland County, SC 25
57 Sacramento County, CA 25
58 Cumberland County, NC 25
59 Richmond County, GA 24
60 Pinellas County, FL 24
61 Mecklenburg County, NC 23
62 King County, WA 23
63 Essex County, NJ 23
64 Palm Beach County, FL 22
65 Clayton County, GA 22
66 Forsyth County, NC 22
67 Orange County, FL 22
68 New Haven County, CT 21
69 Suffolk County, MA 20
70 Tarrant County, TX 20
71 Hillsborough County, FL 19
72 Oakland County, MI 18
73 Henry County, GA 18
74 Prince George’s County, MD 17
75 Polk County, FL 17
76 Henrico County, VA 17
77 Broward County, FL 16
78 Fairfield County, CT 16
79 Bronx County, NY 16
80 Fort Bend County, TX 16
81 Riverside County, CA 16
82 Travis County, TX 16
83 Hartford County, CT 15
84 Kings County, NY 13
85 Anne Arundel County, MD 13
86 San Diego County, CA 13
87 New York County, NY 13
88 Gwinnett County, GA 12
89 Wake County, NC 12
90 Suffolk County, NY 11
91 Union County, NJ 11
92 Denton County, TX 10
93 Cobb County, GA 10
94 Queens County, NY 10
95 Westchester County, NY 10
96 Montgomery County, MD 8
97 Prince William County, VA 7
98 Collin County, TX 7
99 Nassau County, NY 6
100 Fairfax County, VA 6

The lowest black homicide rate is Fairfax County in the Virginia suburbs of DC. I’m under the impression a lot of blacks there are immigrants? #99 Nassau NY is Long Island, where lots of NYPD live. #98 Collin TX is northern Dallas suburbs (such as Plano and Frisco) famed for high school test scores for blacks and Hispanics.

I’m wondering whether the main effect we are seeing in this ranking isn’t much of a red vs. blue divide that people like to argue about, or even Ferguson or Floyd Effects, it’s that the better sort of blacks are abandoning old industrial heartland cities for suburbs or more modern economies in places like Georgia, Texas, and Florida, leaving behind the worst sort of blacks. This raises the depressing question of how much can be done about keeping St. Louis from turning into East St. Louis and, eventually, Chicago from turning into Gary.

Obviously, though, the Cultural Revolution of May 25, 2020 has hastened that dire day.

Those responsible should be punished.

 
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  1. Those responsible should be punished.

    That’ll happen right around the time when those responsible for the Iraq War (“weapons of mass destruction”) are punished.

    • Replies: @Art Deco
    @JohnnyWalker123

    Who would you prefer, Uday or Qusay?

    Replies: @vinteuil, @Wj

    , @Reg Cæsar
    @JohnnyWalker123


    those responsible for the Iraq War (“weapons of mass destruction”)
     
    GWB was no guiltier than your hero FDR, several wars earlier. At least Saddam was being coy about WMDs-- he didn't have them, or maybe he did, or maybe he didn't but might, soon.

    The Brits had destroyed the German nuclear program (based in Norway) by 1943. Their leader had little interest, anyway. But we just had to have nukes, because they might. And we used them.

    GWB, HST, FDR... none of them belong on a coin.

    Replies: @anonymouseperson, @Art Deco, @Wj

    , @anonymouseperson
    @JohnnyWalker123

    Those responsible are almost never punished.

  2. Why say black homicide when you can just say homicide?

    Less racist and just about as accurate. HTH!

    Oh, here’s a county in Colorado. Zero p.a.

  3. Was Paul Pelosi getting struck about the head with a hammer a Ferguson-Floyd effect?

    Two men are struggling for the hammer, and the 82-year-old victim of the attack gets struck with police just standing there?

    No body camera videos — is this the Uvalde Effect? Were the two men, victim and assailant, grappling inside a closed room with the police remaining outside, waiting for a hostage negotiator?

    • Thanks: Father Coughlin
    • Replies: @TWS
    @Inquiring Mind

    It's a older gay man, younger gay man type of thing. The reason cameras are turned off is it's nasty's husband. Gays and lesbians beat on their partners like drums compared to straight couples.

    And underwear and hammers are tame compared to some stuff I have seen.

    Replies: @Polistra

    , @SaneClownPosse
    @Inquiring Mind

    Fake event. The "perp" is related to Senor Pelosi. The "police" weren't city police, they are Capitol Police, the same police force involved in the fake "insurrection".

    mileswmathis.com/pelosi.pdf

    mileswmathis.com/jan6.pdf

  4. The Jewish millenium.

    • Thanks: Renard
    • Replies: @Altai
    @Dream

    So exactly what you see in their places of origin. (Though the Persian one may be skewed by the socio-economic slice of what kinds of Persians come to the US)

    What I am more interested in is generation time. A group which has a generation time 5 years lower on average than another has a significantly higher rate of growth even if both have the same total lifetime fertility.

    Replies: @Renard, @AnotherDad

  5. One of the perks of being part of the leadership class is zero accountability for your mistakes. Really all we can hope for is something like non-profit organizations such as BLM losing their tax exempt status. No individuals will be held responsible.

    On a somewhat related note, if affirmative action is overturned by SCOTUS, if the GOP has Congress and the presidency it should go ahead and make it illegal in all realms and at a minimum ban hormone therapy and gender reassignment surgery for minors, although my preference would be a blanket ban. That many not be possible, although maybe making it easier to sue psychiatrists and doctors who enable this ‘treatment’ would probably do the job as well. In any case, both would strike at movements that have inflicted a tremendous amount of harm on society.

    • Agree: Father Coughlin
  6. This raises the depressing question of how much can be done about keeping St. Louis from turning into East St. Louis and, eventually, Chicago from turning into Gary.

    • Replies: @Renard
    @Altai


    This raises the depressing question of how much can be done about keeping St. Louis from turning into East St. Louis and, eventually, Chicago from turning into Gary.
     
    Most of the black residents of ESL and Gary have vacated. Get rid of the rest, move white people in, and within a decade both cities will be idyllic urban landscapes.

    A few Asians probably won't hurt. Heck, even a few Latinos will be fine. But the slope, she gets slippery fast.
    , @nokangaroos
    @Altai

    Send a Congressional Fact-Finding Mission to Kigali/Rwanda
    (murder rate 6.1 and falling, a few years after the genocide);
    they must be doing something right ;)

    , @Ghost of Bull Moose
    @Altai

    What Happened to Gary, Indiana?

    More like What Had Happened.

  7. @Dream
    The Jewish millenium.

    https://twitter.com/BirthGauge/status/1583095374654283776?t=_c7_zQxMuVTAmOUzxms-jQ&s=19

    Replies: @Altai

    So exactly what you see in their places of origin. (Though the Persian one may be skewed by the socio-economic slice of what kinds of Persians come to the US)

    What I am more interested in is generation time. A group which has a generation time 5 years lower on average than another has a significantly higher rate of growth even if both have the same total lifetime fertility.

    • Replies: @Renard
    @Altai

    You did two consecutive posts without misplaced apostrophes! Good work, I told you that you could do it!

    , @AnotherDad
    @Altai


    What I am more interested in is generation time. A group which has a generation time 5 years lower on average than another has a significantly higher rate of growth even if both have the same total lifetime fertility.
     
    You shouldn't be. It's almost irrelevant for the issues we face.

    Example, my gr andmother. She could have stopped having kids in the 1920's after say my mom and given you a mid 20s cycle time. But the salient thing--for our family, for her genes--is she kept going and had a lot of kids. (I've got an aunt who is a boomer like me.)

    For any of these communities averaging 6 kids, the women are popping out their first kid in their early 20s a year or two after getting married, and then producing a kid every year or two or three until their fertility dries up. Their mean generation time may be 30, but they win through having a high TFR.

    The key word in your sentence is "growth". It's true if you have two populations having TFR 4, one cycling at 25 will get in one extra doubling over one cycling at 30 ... in 150 years! That't basically irrelevant to the situation we--or anyone else in the world--faces.


    The biggest driver right now is that the "Hispanics" are being reinforced by immigration and are at replacement fertility ... and whites are not and are not. The faster Hispanic generation time is a complete non-issue. They are growing through immigration. We are outright shrinking!.

    Then further out we've got the huge issue of not downloading Steve's "world's most important graph" into America. That's would just kill us.

    Then further out we've got these very fertile religious communities with quite varying levels of alienation from the American core--from Quiverfull Christians and Mormons, through Amish and Orthodox Jews .... one down to absolute disasters like the Somali muslims.

    Replies: @Alden

  8. Re the Gary IN video, every time a train went by I noticed those lengths of rolling pipelines. Experts tell us that rail is a safer and cleaner way to move explosive chemicals than are the evil pipes burried in the ground.

  9. @Altai

    This raises the depressing question of how much can be done about keeping St. Louis from turning into East St. Louis and, eventually, Chicago from turning into Gary.
     
    https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=T_wkSFxooso

    Replies: @Renard, @nokangaroos, @Ghost of Bull Moose

    This raises the depressing question of how much can be done about keeping St. Louis from turning into East St. Louis and, eventually, Chicago from turning into Gary.

    Most of the black residents of ESL and Gary have vacated. Get rid of the rest, move white people in, and within a decade both cities will be idyllic urban landscapes.

    A few Asians probably won’t hurt. Heck, even a few Latinos will be fine. But the slope, she gets slippery fast.

  10. @Altai
    @Dream

    So exactly what you see in their places of origin. (Though the Persian one may be skewed by the socio-economic slice of what kinds of Persians come to the US)

    What I am more interested in is generation time. A group which has a generation time 5 years lower on average than another has a significantly higher rate of growth even if both have the same total lifetime fertility.

    Replies: @Renard, @AnotherDad

    You did two consecutive posts without misplaced apostrophes! Good work, I told you that you could do it!

  11. Wake County, NC is Raleigh.

    Durham, the historically black and dangerous city nearby, is in a different country. (I think Durham has improved with some gentrification–Duke was always there so there’s reason to)

    I wonder if places like Wake do well because if you were a loser black in the area you would be more likely to already be in the blacker, poorer county next door.

    And Raleigh has enough important whites living there to make sure things run as smooth as possible knowing it’s not some all-white utopia where you can be as silly as you’d like.

  12. The Worst and Best Counties for Black Homicides

    Now there’s a value judgement.

    Is “Most black residents” purely numerical or percentage?

    Critical mass or predominance?

  13. The lowest black homicide rate is Fairfax County in the Virginia suburbs of DC. I’m under the impression a lot of blacks there are immigrants?

    Yes, and the same is the case for Prince William, VA, and, to a lesser extent, Montgomery, MD. Mostly Ethiopians.

    • Replies: @Art Deco
    @anonymous

    Supposedly about 12,000 Ethiopians out of 220,000 blacks and mulattos. Africans and West Indians (self identified) are just north of 20% of the black and mulatto population of Prince William and about 35% in Fairfax.

    Disorderly blacks in greater Washington live in the District or in Prince George's County, Md.

  14. @Inquiring Mind
    Was Paul Pelosi getting struck about the head with a hammer a Ferguson-Floyd effect?

    Two men are struggling for the hammer, and the 82-year-old victim of the attack gets struck with police just standing there?

    No body camera videos -- is this the Uvalde Effect? Were the two men, victim and assailant, grappling inside a closed room with the police remaining outside, waiting for a hostage negotiator?

    Replies: @TWS, @SaneClownPosse

    It’s a older gay man, younger gay man type of thing. The reason cameras are turned off is it’s nasty’s husband. Gays and lesbians beat on their partners like drums compared to straight couples.

    And underwear and hammers are tame compared to some stuff I have seen.

    • Replies: @Polistra
    @TWS


    And underwear and hammers are tame compared to some stuff I have seen.
     
    Do tell, sister!
  15. @JohnnyWalker123

    Those responsible should be punished.

     

    That'll happen right around the time when those responsible for the Iraq War ("weapons of mass destruction") are punished.

    Replies: @Art Deco, @Reg Cæsar, @anonymouseperson

    Who would you prefer, Uday or Qusay?

    • Replies: @vinteuil
    @Art Deco

    Oh, for God's sake, AD - you're still quick to defend that idiotic war?

    Replies: @Art Deco

    , @Wj
    @Art Deco

    I would blame rumsfeld and reagan and other european countries that sh the tech to make the weapons in the 80s. Those weapons were junk by the time we engaged in dumya's folly in 2003

  16. It looks like the top 10 worst counties for blacks dying by homicide (overwhelmingly at the hands of other blacks) include seven in red states

    This is the new talking point seized upon by Dems (aside from the “overwhelmingly at the hands” part, of course). That crime is a Red State scourge. Alternately, that rising crime is a mere “misperception.”

    Suffering from this “misperception” is the NYC woman who was raped while jogging yesterday morning, by an alleged repeat rapist with 25 priors. The Polite Excuse of the Day Award goes to ABC’s horrible Aaron Katersky, who noted the suspect “was experiencing homelessness.”

  17. “Those responsible should be punished.”

    Okay, this is progress from your usual failure to draw any meaningful (i.e., practical) conclusions from the topics you discuss.

    Now tell us how you imagine these people can be punished (as they so richly deserve).

  18. Eastern seaboard counties like Baltimore City, Philadelphia County, and the District of Columbia perhaps reflect poor local governance. The blacks of the New York and Boston areas are doing better, as are places that blacks move to for jobs and pensioned retirements, such as Texas, Florida, and Georgia.

    My guess is that blacks in New York and Boston didn’t suddenly become better behaved (well, better than the median given the overall decrease of crime 1994-2012), but rather that they’ve been shunted off to locales outside of New York and Boston proper via gentrification of formerly low income black neighborhoods. The cost of living for consumer goods and staples, especially in New York, made it difficult to remain. Meanwhile, the talented tenth Affirmative Action babies moved to New York City in order to partake in the come up, thus disguising she shift somewhat. You’d want to look at relative demographics and crime statistics in Essex and Union Counties, (#63 and #91, respectively) especially Newark, East Orange, Elizabeth, etc. over time.

    Figuring out where the 1990s Brooklyn blacks went as they were displaced by hipsters would be interesting. Tracey Morgan’s The Last OG had a funny take on this:

    Also, it’s interesting – Baltimore and St. Louis split apart in the 19th Century, while the City and the County of Philadelphia consolidated into one around the time of the Civil War (ergo, its archaic but accurate title is “The City and the County of Philadelphia”). N.B., New Castle County, DE and Delaware County, PA (#40 and #41 respectively) are essentially Southern extensions of Philadelphia, and were likely receiving grounds of displaced blacks during Philadelphia’s period of gentrification.

    • Replies: @Travis
    @Alec Leamas (working from home)

    Another big reason for the lower homicide rates in NYC compared to Philly is the number of Blacks. There is a huge difference in the demographics of Philly and NYC. Even back in 1990 NYC was just 25% Black while Philly was 50% Black. With so many Blacks living in Philly, there is a much bigger risk of violence breaking out. In addition to fewer blacks in NYC than Philly, the whites in Philly are more prone to violence, drinking and drugs. If the Black population of NYC was 90% higher it would be closer to the demographics of Philadelphia. Imagine if NYC was 43% Black today?

    Whenever the share of the Black population exceeds 40% the level of violence between Blacks will be significantly higher. When the Black share of the population falls below 30% the area will be safer and it will be far safer for Blacks when there are fewer Blacks around.

    Another factor is density. Philadelphia has a density of 12,000 people per sq mile while Atlanta has a density of just 3,800 per sq mile. Philadelphia has triple the Black population of Atlanta with 700,000 Blacks living in Philadelphia and 230,000 Blacks in Atlanta While both cities are over 40% Black today the issues in Philly are compounded by higher density, thus more Blacks per square mile than any other large city in America. No large city has close to as many Blacks per square mile than Philadelphia. The closest would be Chicago. Even Detroit, which has 500,000 Blacks has a Black density less than Philadelphia. The Black density of Philly is 5,500 Blacks per square mile compared to just 3,000 for Detroit.

    Replies: @Alec Leamas (working from home), @BosTex

  19. I am surprised to see that the mostly suburban Contra Costa County which is mostly in the far East Bay is the “winner” for California. The factor would be the city of Richmond which I suppose barely edges out much bigger and better-known Oakland. Which is in Alameda County which is almost tied with CC. Still I would have thought LA County would lead the way for the Golden State.

  20. In general, the worst black homicide rates tend to be in the middle of the country, the vast Mississippi and Great Lakes watersheds.

    Someone with the right database and stat software could quickly find the correlation between elevation of county seat and all sorts of phenomena.

    Are whites deadlier in the mountains? American Indians? The only places in the top half of that list over 1,000′ are Pittsburgh’s and Atlanta’s counties. Georgia, by the way, is second only to Texas in number of counties. Many of them would be townships in other states.

    Richmond city, Va., though well inland, has a lower elevation than Richmond County, N.Y. (b.k.a. Staten Island), right on the ocean. Todt Hill, which means “dead”, was a site for Mafia dachas. So it would either be very safe, or very unsafe, depending.

    • Replies: @International Jew
    @Reg Cæsar


    Are whites deadlier in the mountains?
     
    Depends if you concede them the high ground.
  21. @JohnnyWalker123

    Those responsible should be punished.

     

    That'll happen right around the time when those responsible for the Iraq War ("weapons of mass destruction") are punished.

    Replies: @Art Deco, @Reg Cæsar, @anonymouseperson

    those responsible for the Iraq War (“weapons of mass destruction”)

    GWB was no guiltier than your hero FDR, several wars earlier. At least Saddam was being coy about WMDs– he didn’t have them, or maybe he did, or maybe he didn’t but might, soon.

    The Brits had destroyed the German nuclear program (based in Norway) by 1943. Their leader had little interest, anyway. But we just had to have nukes, because they might. And we used them.

    GWB, HST, FDR… none of them belong on a coin.

    • Replies: @anonymouseperson
    @Reg Cæsar

    FDR was no hero. Far, far from it. He played a key role in causing the war with Japan. With different diplomacy it could probably have been avoided. Both the British and American ambassadors to Japan at the time were firmly of the belief that war could have been prevented. This is not to say that Imperial Japan was any saint but still. Nor did Americans gain anything from the war anyways.

    Replies: @Reg Cæsar

    , @Art Deco
    @Reg Cæsar

    FDR belongs on a coin. Truman's worth considering, but the space is filled and MacArthur and Eisenhower are ahead in line. It was JFK who did not belong on a coin; neither did Susan B Anthony.

    Replies: @Reg Cæsar

    , @Wj
    @Reg Cæsar

    Saddam didnt have wmd and there was zero evidence he was trying to acquire them. For so many reasons it was the dumbest war in our history. Bush cheney should be in prison.

  22. @JohnnyWalker123

    Those responsible should be punished.

     

    That'll happen right around the time when those responsible for the Iraq War ("weapons of mass destruction") are punished.

    Replies: @Art Deco, @Reg Cæsar, @anonymouseperson

    Those responsible are almost never punished.

  23. @Reg Cæsar
    @JohnnyWalker123


    those responsible for the Iraq War (“weapons of mass destruction”)
     
    GWB was no guiltier than your hero FDR, several wars earlier. At least Saddam was being coy about WMDs-- he didn't have them, or maybe he did, or maybe he didn't but might, soon.

    The Brits had destroyed the German nuclear program (based in Norway) by 1943. Their leader had little interest, anyway. But we just had to have nukes, because they might. And we used them.

    GWB, HST, FDR... none of them belong on a coin.

    Replies: @anonymouseperson, @Art Deco, @Wj

    FDR was no hero. Far, far from it. He played a key role in causing the war with Japan. With different diplomacy it could probably have been avoided. Both the British and American ambassadors to Japan at the time were firmly of the belief that war could have been prevented. This is not to say that Imperial Japan was any saint but still. Nor did Americans gain anything from the war anyways.

    • Replies: @Reg Cæsar
    @anonymouseperson


    Nor did Americans gain anything from the war anyways.
     
    Critics like to carp that America lost this or that war. Hah! I'd say we lost every damed one after 1783, with the arguable exception of the Mexican. And we may still lose that one!



    https://thehill.com/wp-content/uploads/sites/2/2021/09/delrio_texas_immigration_092221getty_lead.jpg?w=1280
  24. @Altai

    This raises the depressing question of how much can be done about keeping St. Louis from turning into East St. Louis and, eventually, Chicago from turning into Gary.
     
    https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=T_wkSFxooso

    Replies: @Renard, @nokangaroos, @Ghost of Bull Moose

    Send a Congressional Fact-Finding Mission to Kigali/Rwanda
    (murder rate 6.1 and falling, a few years after the genocide);
    they must be doing something right 😉

  25. Missouri blacks weren’t always this bad.

    In general, the worst black homicide rates tend to be in the middle of the country, the vast Mississippi and Great Lakes watersheds. In general, it looks like the worst locales feature a lot of left-behinds of the Rust Belt.

    I’m wondering whether the main effect we are seeing in this ranking isn’t much of a red vs. blue divide that people like to argue about, or even Ferguson or Floyd Effects, it’s that the better sort of blacks are abandoning old industrial heartland cities for suburbs or more modern economies in places like Georgia, Texas, and Florida, leaving behind the worst sort of blacks.

    Steve, I think you’re on to at least a statistically significant effect here.

    Annecdotes:
    — We were in Orlando the other day to lunch with AnotherBrotherInLaw who was in town for business conference. On the way to lunch a back brake caliper started sticking and had stink and smoke pouring out at a light. Local mechanic we stopped at wasn’t going to be able to make the fix by end-of-day so did long tow back to our mechanic. Tow driver was a very pleasant friendly black guy–family man with a couple of young boys. Had a nice chat about family, his trip plans to do Christmas with his mom and his siblings families. Good guy making an honest living and raising a family. He’d had left St. Louis a dozen years ago. From Christmas plans discussion apparently none of his many brothers and sisters live there anymore either.

    — Friend of mine from work had grown up on the South Side. Had DivIII scholarship offers to QB, but chose to go to Howard. Lives in the Sunbelt. He’s at least 2SDs above average Chicago black in IQ and just having his shit together.

    More on the ball blacks have moved on–south/west/coastal–for opportunity making the left-behind black communities even less functional.

    • Replies: @AnotherDad
    @AnotherDad


    This raises the depressing question of how much can be done about keeping St. Louis from turning into East St. Louis and, eventually, Chicago from turning into Gary.
     
    Just as you will not have intelligent/decent politics in a multi-ethnic nation unless you acknowledge HBD--all people, all groups are not the same and will have different socio-economic profiles/success-- ...
    you will not have long term success as a nation unless you have eugenic fertility.


    What can be done with these people is pay them to not have children. Welfare--the inability to support yourself--should automatically require birth control. Criminals should be expelled or sterilized. That should not be let back into the community to reproduce. Those two are "basic" common sense.

    Beyond that we should simply pay low IQ women not to have children. And our society and culture need to return to explaining to intelligent/healthy/conscientious young women that the most important/useful thing they will do in life is bear intelligent/healthy/conscientious children.

    Replies: @Polistra

  26. Would be interesting to see how having birth father or stepfather in the house affects the rate. I suspect that is another reason suburban & rural county rates are lower.

  27. St Louis will not turn into East St Louis because of the way our defacto (not dejure) segregation works. Our rich people live right up against the blacks. On The Delmar divide, you literally have the mansions of the McCluskys across the street from bombed out hell holes. But you are relatively safe on the right side of the street. The general pattern is ghetto in the north, rich in the middle and rednecks (locally known as hoosiers) in the south.
    The funny thing is, we have zero foreigners compared to just about everywhere else. I would estimate the whole area as 70% white, 20% black and 10% other (including hispanics) I could be wrong, but I’m not enough of a data guy to dig through the stats. Also, that’s for the whole Metro area (including Illinois)
    Also, the Muslim refugees that got dumped on us are Bosnians. If I had to choose a Muslim group, it would have to be them. The only way to tell them apart is that the woman look just like white women on wear a hajib day.

  28. @Altai
    @Dream

    So exactly what you see in their places of origin. (Though the Persian one may be skewed by the socio-economic slice of what kinds of Persians come to the US)

    What I am more interested in is generation time. A group which has a generation time 5 years lower on average than another has a significantly higher rate of growth even if both have the same total lifetime fertility.

    Replies: @Renard, @AnotherDad

    What I am more interested in is generation time. A group which has a generation time 5 years lower on average than another has a significantly higher rate of growth even if both have the same total lifetime fertility.

    You shouldn’t be. It’s almost irrelevant for the issues we face.

    Example, my gr andmother. She could have stopped having kids in the 1920’s after say my mom and given you a mid 20s cycle time. But the salient thing–for our family, for her genes–is she kept going and had a lot of kids. (I’ve got an aunt who is a boomer like me.)

    For any of these communities averaging 6 kids, the women are popping out their first kid in their early 20s a year or two after getting married, and then producing a kid every year or two or three until their fertility dries up. Their mean generation time may be 30, but they win through having a high TFR.

    The key word in your sentence is “growth”. It’s true if you have two populations having TFR 4, one cycling at 25 will get in one extra doubling over one cycling at 30 … in 150 years! That’t basically irrelevant to the situation we–or anyone else in the world–faces.

    The biggest driver right now is that the “Hispanics” are being reinforced by immigration and are at replacement fertility … and whites are not and are not. The faster Hispanic generation time is a complete non-issue. They are growing through immigration. We are outright shrinking!.

    Then further out we’ve got the huge issue of not downloading Steve’s “world’s most important graph” into America. That’s would just kill us.

    Then further out we’ve got these very fertile religious communities with quite varying levels of alienation from the American core–from Quiverfull Christians and Mormons, through Amish and Orthodox Jews …. one down to absolute disasters like the Somali muslims.

    • Replies: @Alden
    @AnotherDad

    I must sincerely apologize for bringing reality into these endless men of UNZ articles about fertility.

    But the reason couples, couples, not just women had large families prior to 1960 was reliable birth control.

    My feminine intuition, basic knowledge of human reproduction, and proximity to one of the biggest Hasid communities in America has led me to this conclusion;

    The Hasids marry young, have 4 or 5 kids spaced about every 15 months. And when the wife is 30,32 they stop having kids. I see those families around all the time.

    My genius level observation and knowledge about human reproduction leads me to conclude the Hasids start using reliable birth control the pill or the patch even tubal ligation after 5 kids when the wife is in her early 30s.

    Other wise, they’d have more kids youngest born when the wife is around 40.

    The men of UNZ the men of UNZ.

    Replies: @Cortes

  29. @AnotherDad
    @Altai


    What I am more interested in is generation time. A group which has a generation time 5 years lower on average than another has a significantly higher rate of growth even if both have the same total lifetime fertility.
     
    You shouldn't be. It's almost irrelevant for the issues we face.

    Example, my gr andmother. She could have stopped having kids in the 1920's after say my mom and given you a mid 20s cycle time. But the salient thing--for our family, for her genes--is she kept going and had a lot of kids. (I've got an aunt who is a boomer like me.)

    For any of these communities averaging 6 kids, the women are popping out their first kid in their early 20s a year or two after getting married, and then producing a kid every year or two or three until their fertility dries up. Their mean generation time may be 30, but they win through having a high TFR.

    The key word in your sentence is "growth". It's true if you have two populations having TFR 4, one cycling at 25 will get in one extra doubling over one cycling at 30 ... in 150 years! That't basically irrelevant to the situation we--or anyone else in the world--faces.


    The biggest driver right now is that the "Hispanics" are being reinforced by immigration and are at replacement fertility ... and whites are not and are not. The faster Hispanic generation time is a complete non-issue. They are growing through immigration. We are outright shrinking!.

    Then further out we've got the huge issue of not downloading Steve's "world's most important graph" into America. That's would just kill us.

    Then further out we've got these very fertile religious communities with quite varying levels of alienation from the American core--from Quiverfull Christians and Mormons, through Amish and Orthodox Jews .... one down to absolute disasters like the Somali muslims.

    Replies: @Alden

    I must sincerely apologize for bringing reality into these endless men of UNZ articles about fertility.

    But the reason couples, couples, not just women had large families prior to 1960 was reliable birth control.

    My feminine intuition, basic knowledge of human reproduction, and proximity to one of the biggest Hasid communities in America has led me to this conclusion;

    The Hasids marry young, have 4 or 5 kids spaced about every 15 months. And when the wife is 30,32 they stop having kids. I see those families around all the time.

    My genius level observation and knowledge about human reproduction leads me to conclude the Hasids start using reliable birth control the pill or the patch even tubal ligation after 5 kids when the wife is in her early 30s.

    Other wise, they’d have more kids youngest born when the wife is around 40.

    The men of UNZ the men of UNZ.

    • Replies: @Cortes
    @Alden

    Boy
    Boy
    Boy
    Boy
    Girl
    ACCESS DENIED

    “My genius level observation” suggests that many factors are in play.

  30. iSteve’s charts and graphs could be complied (by him) into a series of books.

    Best places to retire.

    Best places to raise your family.

    Best places to find a spouse.

    All with emphasis on the best places to avoid, which will be the point. “These zip codes, not those.”

    Realtors already have similar stuff they will show you if you seem to be a serious buyer.

    Now there is a lot of granular detail in these stats, so large areas or metros aren’t all uniform.

    You can look on some maps of flyover country and wonder why no one lives in large areas. Well, aside from military bases and nature reserves, some (in the right map) show large Indian (American Siberian) reservations. No you probably can’t live there.

    Of course it is criminal WrongThink to “notice” certain things nowadays. So you have to subtract by addition or something like that.

    Live Here (not there).

  31. @Reg Cæsar

    In general, the worst black homicide rates tend to be in the middle of the country, the vast Mississippi and Great Lakes watersheds.
     
    Someone with the right database and stat software could quickly find the correlation between elevation of county seat and all sorts of phenomena.

    Are whites deadlier in the mountains? American Indians? The only places in the top half of that list over 1,000' are Pittsburgh's and Atlanta's counties. Georgia, by the way, is second only to Texas in number of counties. Many of them would be townships in other states.

    Richmond city, Va., though well inland, has a lower elevation than Richmond County, N.Y. (b.k.a. Staten Island), right on the ocean. Todt Hill, which means "dead", was a site for Mafia dachas. So it would either be very safe, or very unsafe, depending.

    Replies: @International Jew

    Are whites deadlier in the mountains?

    Depends if you concede them the high ground.

  32. https://www.nytimes.com/2022/11/03/us/midterm-elections-republicans-crime.html

    Gaslighting article featured on the front page of the New York Times about crime.

    It’s all in your head. There is just a perception of increased crime. Most people will not actually be murdered so why are they so concerned about an increase in the murder rate? People are providing anecdotal evidence of higher crime, but the data shows… oh right, the crime data system in the United States has been intentionally rendered useless. Well in that case, I guess there is nothing to worry about.

    In many cases, their anxieties stem not from experiencing serious crime, but from seeing homeless encampments, or finding a syringe or human waste on the sidewalk, or reading accounts in their neighborhood social networks of vandalism on a local bike path.

    Homeless encampments, rampant heroin addiction, human waste on the sidewalk, vandalism, why that is just who we are!

    • Replies: @Polistra
    @clifford brown


    Gaslighting article featured on the front page of the New York Times about crime.

    It’s all in your head. There is just a perception of increased crime.
     

    They said this back in the 80s and early 90s as well.

    Particularly infuriating when you get your head bashed in.

    The gaslighting was every bit as rampant then as now. It was almost always goodwhite women smugly parroting whatever propaganda the MSM were promoting.


    Naturally, these women lived totally insulated lives just as the Ruling Class do. So yes, some things never seem to change.

  33. @AnotherDad

    Missouri blacks weren’t always this bad.
    ...

    In general, the worst black homicide rates tend to be in the middle of the country, the vast Mississippi and Great Lakes watersheds. In general, it looks like the worst locales feature a lot of left-behinds of the Rust Belt.
    ...

    I’m wondering whether the main effect we are seeing in this ranking isn’t much of a red vs. blue divide that people like to argue about, or even Ferguson or Floyd Effects, it’s that the better sort of blacks are abandoning old industrial heartland cities for suburbs or more modern economies in places like Georgia, Texas, and Florida, leaving behind the worst sort of blacks.

     

    Steve, I think you're on to at least a statistically significant effect here.

    Annecdotes:
    -- We were in Orlando the other day to lunch with AnotherBrotherInLaw who was in town for business conference. On the way to lunch a back brake caliper started sticking and had stink and smoke pouring out at a light. Local mechanic we stopped at wasn't going to be able to make the fix by end-of-day so did long tow back to our mechanic. Tow driver was a very pleasant friendly black guy--family man with a couple of young boys. Had a nice chat about family, his trip plans to do Christmas with his mom and his siblings families. Good guy making an honest living and raising a family. He'd had left St. Louis a dozen years ago. From Christmas plans discussion apparently none of his many brothers and sisters live there anymore either.

    -- Friend of mine from work had grown up on the South Side. Had DivIII scholarship offers to QB, but chose to go to Howard. Lives in the Sunbelt. He's at least 2SDs above average Chicago black in IQ and just having his shit together.

    More on the ball blacks have moved on--south/west/coastal--for opportunity making the left-behind black communities even less functional.

    Replies: @AnotherDad

    This raises the depressing question of how much can be done about keeping St. Louis from turning into East St. Louis and, eventually, Chicago from turning into Gary.

    Just as you will not have intelligent/decent politics in a multi-ethnic nation unless you acknowledge HBD–all people, all groups are not the same and will have different socio-economic profiles/success– …
    you will not have long term success as a nation unless you have eugenic fertility.

    What can be done with these people is pay them to not have children. Welfare–the inability to support yourself–should automatically require birth control. Criminals should be expelled or sterilized. That should not be let back into the community to reproduce. Those two are “basic” common sense.

    Beyond that we should simply pay low IQ women not to have children. And our society and culture need to return to explaining to intelligent/healthy/conscientious young women that the most important/useful thing they will do in life is bear intelligent/healthy/conscientious children.

    • Replies: @Polistra
    @AnotherDad


    What can be done with these people is pay them to not have children. Welfare–the inability to support yourself–should automatically require birth control. Criminals should be expelled or sterilized. That should not be let back into the community to reproduce. Those two are “basic” common sense.

    Beyond that we should simply pay low IQ women not to have children.
     

    For these and many similar reasons, I've come to the conclusion that WW2 probably equals the death of civilization. Because the victors (our current Ruling Class) use the "Nazi" argument to shut down any possibility of responsible management of human resources.

    Dysgenic fertility (and its inevitable correlate, generational criminality) suits the purposes of the Ruling Class, and if it didn't, it would never have been allowed, much less become rampant. Much less become the effective norm for the masses.

  34. Now we need to know what percent black those 100 counties are to see if there’s a tipping point.

  35. @Art Deco
    @JohnnyWalker123

    Who would you prefer, Uday or Qusay?

    Replies: @vinteuil, @Wj

    Oh, for God’s sake, AD – you’re still quick to defend that idiotic war?

    • Replies: @Art Deco
    @vinteuil

    Didn't get an answer out of you.

    Replies: @Mike Tre

  36. @Reg Cæsar
    @JohnnyWalker123


    those responsible for the Iraq War (“weapons of mass destruction”)
     
    GWB was no guiltier than your hero FDR, several wars earlier. At least Saddam was being coy about WMDs-- he didn't have them, or maybe he did, or maybe he didn't but might, soon.

    The Brits had destroyed the German nuclear program (based in Norway) by 1943. Their leader had little interest, anyway. But we just had to have nukes, because they might. And we used them.

    GWB, HST, FDR... none of them belong on a coin.

    Replies: @anonymouseperson, @Art Deco, @Wj

    FDR belongs on a coin. Truman’s worth considering, but the space is filled and MacArthur and Eisenhower are ahead in line. It was JFK who did not belong on a coin; neither did Susan B Anthony.

    • Replies: @Reg Cæsar
    @Art Deco


    FDR belongs on a coin. Truman’s worth considering, but the space is filled and MacArthur and Eisenhower are ahead in line.
     
    Deliberate aerial attacks on noncombatant civilians is a war crime, no matter who does it. That should be enough to disqualify all four.

    Did they do this to us, or we to them? Does it matter?


    https://cdn.images.express.co.uk/img/dynamic/20/750x445/883940.jpg

    Replies: @Art Deco

  37. @vinteuil
    @Art Deco

    Oh, for God's sake, AD - you're still quick to defend that idiotic war?

    Replies: @Art Deco

    Didn’t get an answer out of you.

    • Troll: Polistra
    • Replies: @Mike Tre
    @Art Deco

    Either was an improvement over the pritzker children.

    Replies: @Art Deco

  38. Fairfax County VA does have a lot of black immigrants, but I suspect strongly it is more a function of (1) it’s <10% black, so fewer "collisions", (2) the federal gov't is the biggest employer, so there is a huge population of passed-a-background-check-and-basically-bougie black people, and (3) it's a really high median income place, so the lacks that are there are better off and there are fewer easy opportunities to get into trouble.

    • Replies: @Art Deco
    @Recently Based

    About 20% of the working population in greater Washington consists of federal employees. These are affluent suburban areas, so you wouldn't expect much trouble. The trashy people who migrated out of the District collected in Prince George's County for the occult reasons some neighborhoods decline and others prosper.

    In greater Baltimore, the trashy people stayed in the core city.

    Replies: @Alec Leamas (working from home)

    , @Ralph L
    @Recently Based

    I remember in the 80s, when DC was enjoying 300-400 murders a year, Fairfax Co would have 5-10 with twice the population, ~1 million. The neighboring City of Alexandria had several crime-ridden public housing areas which Fairfax didn't have. Since then, most of the private crummy areas of Alexandria have been gentrified, it's just too convenient to DC, and the City likes a bigger tax base. Meanwhile, Pentagon military officers are living in Stafford, 40 miles south.

  39. @anonymouseperson
    @Reg Cæsar

    FDR was no hero. Far, far from it. He played a key role in causing the war with Japan. With different diplomacy it could probably have been avoided. Both the British and American ambassadors to Japan at the time were firmly of the belief that war could have been prevented. This is not to say that Imperial Japan was any saint but still. Nor did Americans gain anything from the war anyways.

    Replies: @Reg Cæsar

    Nor did Americans gain anything from the war anyways.

    Critics like to carp that America lost this or that war. Hah! I’d say we lost every damed one after 1783, with the arguable exception of the Mexican. And we may still lose that one!

  40. @Inquiring Mind
    Was Paul Pelosi getting struck about the head with a hammer a Ferguson-Floyd effect?

    Two men are struggling for the hammer, and the 82-year-old victim of the attack gets struck with police just standing there?

    No body camera videos -- is this the Uvalde Effect? Were the two men, victim and assailant, grappling inside a closed room with the police remaining outside, waiting for a hostage negotiator?

    Replies: @TWS, @SaneClownPosse

    Fake event. The “perp” is related to Senor Pelosi. The “police” weren’t city police, they are Capitol Police, the same police force involved in the fake “insurrection”.

    mileswmathis.com/pelosi.pdf

    mileswmathis.com/jan6.pdf

  41. @Art Deco
    @Reg Cæsar

    FDR belongs on a coin. Truman's worth considering, but the space is filled and MacArthur and Eisenhower are ahead in line. It was JFK who did not belong on a coin; neither did Susan B Anthony.

    Replies: @Reg Cæsar

    FDR belongs on a coin. Truman’s worth considering, but the space is filled and MacArthur and Eisenhower are ahead in line.

    Deliberate aerial attacks on noncombatant civilians is a war crime, no matter who does it. That should be enough to disqualify all four.

    Did they do this to us, or we to them? Does it matter?

    • Agree: J1234
    • Replies: @Art Deco
    @Reg Cæsar

    Deliberate aerial attacks on noncombatant civilians is a war crime, no matter who does it. That should be enough to disqualify all four.

    Well, they destroyed property and that violated Anglo-Saxon procedures.

    I don't know how they could have prosecuted the war without your sage counsel.

    Replies: @Reg Cæsar

  42. Blackity blackity black black black. #tiredofit

  43. @anonymous

    The lowest black homicide rate is Fairfax County in the Virginia suburbs of DC. I’m under the impression a lot of blacks there are immigrants?
     
    Yes, and the same is the case for Prince William, VA, and, to a lesser extent, Montgomery, MD. Mostly Ethiopians.

    Replies: @Art Deco

    Supposedly about 12,000 Ethiopians out of 220,000 blacks and mulattos. Africans and West Indians (self identified) are just north of 20% of the black and mulatto population of Prince William and about 35% in Fairfax.

    Disorderly blacks in greater Washington live in the District or in Prince George’s County, Md.

  44. @Reg Cæsar
    @Art Deco


    FDR belongs on a coin. Truman’s worth considering, but the space is filled and MacArthur and Eisenhower are ahead in line.
     
    Deliberate aerial attacks on noncombatant civilians is a war crime, no matter who does it. That should be enough to disqualify all four.

    Did they do this to us, or we to them? Does it matter?


    https://cdn.images.express.co.uk/img/dynamic/20/750x445/883940.jpg

    Replies: @Art Deco

    Deliberate aerial attacks on noncombatant civilians is a war crime, no matter who does it. That should be enough to disqualify all four.

    Well, they destroyed property and that violated Anglo-Saxon procedures.

    I don’t know how they could have prosecuted the war without your sage counsel.

    • Replies: @Reg Cæsar
    @Art Deco


    I don’t know how they could have prosecuted the war without your sage counsel.
     
    All the "sage counsel" needed was on the rectory shelves of the cathedrals destroyed, and their counterparts at home.

    You are pretty good at calling out progressives for their minor atrocities, but have a blind spot toward their biggest ones.

    Replies: @Art Deco

  45. @Recently Based
    Fairfax County VA does have a lot of black immigrants, but I suspect strongly it is more a function of (1) it's <10% black, so fewer "collisions", (2) the federal gov't is the biggest employer, so there is a huge population of passed-a-background-check-and-basically-bougie black people, and (3) it's a really high median income place, so the lacks that are there are better off and there are fewer easy opportunities to get into trouble.

    Replies: @Art Deco, @Ralph L

    About 20% of the working population in greater Washington consists of federal employees. These are affluent suburban areas, so you wouldn’t expect much trouble. The trashy people who migrated out of the District collected in Prince George’s County for the occult reasons some neighborhoods decline and others prosper.

    In greater Baltimore, the trashy people stayed in the core city.

    • Agree: Recently Based
    • Replies: @Alec Leamas (working from home)
    @Art Deco


    About 20% of the working population in greater Washington consists of federal employees. These are affluent suburban areas, so you wouldn’t expect much trouble. The trashy people who migrated out of the District collected in Prince George’s County for the occult reasons some neighborhoods decline and others prosper.
     
    If you spend any time in affluent, suburban D.C. you could almost see how the ruling class believes what it does about diversity - the blacks there are the best blacks, likely just downstream of lucrative minority-preferred government contracting, and lots of them are affable and like to golf and whatnot. You wouldn't mind if a few were your neighbors because they probably pamper their lawns and keep the siding painted and enjoy a cigar and have good senses of humor.

    Without much scrutiny of this state of affairs, you could suspect that blacks elsewhere misbehave solely because of their mistreatment by whites, rather than that suburban D.C. has accumulated a lot of the nation's best behaved blacks for itself and Uncle Sam has subsidized their upper middle class lifestyles.
  46. @Altai

    This raises the depressing question of how much can be done about keeping St. Louis from turning into East St. Louis and, eventually, Chicago from turning into Gary.
     
    https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=T_wkSFxooso

    Replies: @Renard, @nokangaroos, @Ghost of Bull Moose

    What Happened to Gary, Indiana?

    More like What Had Happened.

  47. @TWS
    @Inquiring Mind

    It's a older gay man, younger gay man type of thing. The reason cameras are turned off is it's nasty's husband. Gays and lesbians beat on their partners like drums compared to straight couples.

    And underwear and hammers are tame compared to some stuff I have seen.

    Replies: @Polistra

    And underwear and hammers are tame compared to some stuff I have seen.

    Do tell, sister!

  48. @clifford brown
    https://www.nytimes.com/2022/11/03/us/midterm-elections-republicans-crime.html

    Gaslighting article featured on the front page of the New York Times about crime.

    It's all in your head. There is just a perception of increased crime. Most people will not actually be murdered so why are they so concerned about an increase in the murder rate? People are providing anecdotal evidence of higher crime, but the data shows... oh right, the crime data system in the United States has been intentionally rendered useless. Well in that case, I guess there is nothing to worry about.


    In many cases, their anxieties stem not from experiencing serious crime, but from seeing homeless encampments, or finding a syringe or human waste on the sidewalk, or reading accounts in their neighborhood social networks of vandalism on a local bike path.
     
    Homeless encampments, rampant heroin addiction, human waste on the sidewalk, vandalism, why that is just who we are!

    Replies: @Polistra

    Gaslighting article featured on the front page of the New York Times about crime.

    It’s all in your head. There is just a perception of increased crime.

    They said this back in the 80s and early 90s as well.

    Particularly infuriating when you get your head bashed in.

    The gaslighting was every bit as rampant then as now. It was almost always goodwhite women smugly parroting whatever propaganda the MSM were promoting.

    Naturally, these women lived totally insulated lives just as the Ruling Class do. So yes, some things never seem to change.

  49. @AnotherDad
    @AnotherDad


    This raises the depressing question of how much can be done about keeping St. Louis from turning into East St. Louis and, eventually, Chicago from turning into Gary.
     
    Just as you will not have intelligent/decent politics in a multi-ethnic nation unless you acknowledge HBD--all people, all groups are not the same and will have different socio-economic profiles/success-- ...
    you will not have long term success as a nation unless you have eugenic fertility.


    What can be done with these people is pay them to not have children. Welfare--the inability to support yourself--should automatically require birth control. Criminals should be expelled or sterilized. That should not be let back into the community to reproduce. Those two are "basic" common sense.

    Beyond that we should simply pay low IQ women not to have children. And our society and culture need to return to explaining to intelligent/healthy/conscientious young women that the most important/useful thing they will do in life is bear intelligent/healthy/conscientious children.

    Replies: @Polistra

    What can be done with these people is pay them to not have children. Welfare–the inability to support yourself–should automatically require birth control. Criminals should be expelled or sterilized. That should not be let back into the community to reproduce. Those two are “basic” common sense.

    Beyond that we should simply pay low IQ women not to have children.

    For these and many similar reasons, I’ve come to the conclusion that WW2 probably equals the death of civilization. Because the victors (our current Ruling Class) use the “Nazi” argument to shut down any possibility of responsible management of human resources.

    Dysgenic fertility (and its inevitable correlate, generational criminality) suits the purposes of the Ruling Class, and if it didn’t, it would never have been allowed, much less become rampant. Much less become the effective norm for the masses.

  50. I would also like to add that there are significant cultural as well as racial differences when it comes to White vs. black: most of the South, especially the Southeast, have dealt with these issues for much longer than the US as a whole.

    Obviously, once the slaves were freed, they did not go en masse to the Northeast; a freed slave in Martha’s Vineyard in 1865 would have been treated the same as its recent guests were; they stayed in the South. It is only because the Southern Whites felt comfortable around blacks, and treated them well, regardless of circumstance — and vice-versa — that this was allowed, as even today, living in Texas, Whites and blacks tend to get along, because of their long histories together (the same is true with Hispanics).

    It is mainly because of the discord between the two ideologies that it seems the dividing line for belligerent blacks is about the Mississippi, because blacks are nothing if not tribal, and their preferred territory lies to the East.

    Just remember the sage advice my grandfather, born in 1911 in a town in Texas which no longer exists (it was flooded out when they built a dam), and educated until the sixth grade, when he had to leave to work with my great-grandfather, gave me: “If you want to put a stop to ’em, castrate ’em at birth and then let ’em monkey around all they want.”

    My grandfather was a smart man.

  51. @Art Deco
    @Reg Cæsar

    Deliberate aerial attacks on noncombatant civilians is a war crime, no matter who does it. That should be enough to disqualify all four.

    Well, they destroyed property and that violated Anglo-Saxon procedures.

    I don't know how they could have prosecuted the war without your sage counsel.

    Replies: @Reg Cæsar

    I don’t know how they could have prosecuted the war without your sage counsel.

    All the “sage counsel” needed was on the rectory shelves of the cathedrals destroyed, and their counterparts at home.

    You are pretty good at calling out progressives for their minor atrocities, but have a blind spot toward their biggest ones.

    • Agree: Hibernian
    • Replies: @Art Deco
    @Reg Cæsar

    Your complaint is twee. They prosecuted the war with the technology they had on hand, which wasn't precise. If you have a better idea, you need to say what it is, and you need to have an informed opinion about the uses of military technology.

    Replies: @Hibernian, @Reg Cæsar

  52. @Recently Based
    Fairfax County VA does have a lot of black immigrants, but I suspect strongly it is more a function of (1) it's <10% black, so fewer "collisions", (2) the federal gov't is the biggest employer, so there is a huge population of passed-a-background-check-and-basically-bougie black people, and (3) it's a really high median income place, so the lacks that are there are better off and there are fewer easy opportunities to get into trouble.

    Replies: @Art Deco, @Ralph L

    I remember in the 80s, when DC was enjoying 300-400 murders a year, Fairfax Co would have 5-10 with twice the population, ~1 million. The neighboring City of Alexandria had several crime-ridden public housing areas which Fairfax didn’t have. Since then, most of the private crummy areas of Alexandria have been gentrified, it’s just too convenient to DC, and the City likes a bigger tax base. Meanwhile, Pentagon military officers are living in Stafford, 40 miles south.

  53. I’m wondering whether the main effect we are seeing in this ranking isn’t much of a red vs. blue divide that people like to argue about, or even Ferguson or Floyd Effects, it’s that the better sort of blacks are abandoning old industrial heartland cities for suburbs or more modern economies in places like Georgia, Texas, and Florida, leaving behind the worst sort of blacks.

    It’s interesting that the “black murder capital” award shifts from city to city over relatively brief periods of time. Detroit or New Orleans will be at or near the top of the list some years and then be replaced by Baltimore, Kansas City or St. Louis within a few years. As the above statement says, better quality black people move away from the w0rst areas. This is certainly true. Policing strategies (good and bad) play a role, too. Let’s not forget, however, that violent black repeat offenders also move from city to city, usually in a more transient or migratory fashion. Darrell Brooks – whose trial just ended in Waukesha – lived in Sparks, NV for eight years and caused a lot of trouble there. He also lived in Georgia, and though his time there was brief, it was long enough for him to engage in more criminal behavior.

    An occasionally transient lifestyle doesn’t seem that uncommon for violent blacks (probably non-blacks, too.) Though the homicide rate in my quarter million pop. midwestern city isn’t that horrible (relatively speaking) this year’s homicide numbers are up to ten so far. That’s double what it’s been in recent years and probably a record high number for us. When I moved here 25 years ago (during the national epidemic of gang violence in the ’90’s) there was about one or two murders a year, and some years there were none.

    • Replies: @Polistra
    @J1234

    Yeah. Morgan Quitno used to publish a list of the nation's 200 worst cities for violent crime. We were so happy where I live that our city had fallen completely off the list, after having been somewhat notorious in previous decades.

    Now we're back on it, with a vengeance. No one here seems terribly troubled by it though, likely because only Bad People notice violent crime.

    And since crime is skyrocketing nearly everywhere, you really have to try to scale these "heights" lately. Well we're doing it.

  54. @Alden
    @AnotherDad

    I must sincerely apologize for bringing reality into these endless men of UNZ articles about fertility.

    But the reason couples, couples, not just women had large families prior to 1960 was reliable birth control.

    My feminine intuition, basic knowledge of human reproduction, and proximity to one of the biggest Hasid communities in America has led me to this conclusion;

    The Hasids marry young, have 4 or 5 kids spaced about every 15 months. And when the wife is 30,32 they stop having kids. I see those families around all the time.

    My genius level observation and knowledge about human reproduction leads me to conclude the Hasids start using reliable birth control the pill or the patch even tubal ligation after 5 kids when the wife is in her early 30s.

    Other wise, they’d have more kids youngest born when the wife is around 40.

    The men of UNZ the men of UNZ.

    Replies: @Cortes

    Boy
    Boy
    Boy
    Boy
    Girl
    ACCESS DENIED

    “My genius level observation” suggests that many factors are in play.

  55. @Alec Leamas (working from home)

    Eastern seaboard counties like Baltimore City, Philadelphia County, and the District of Columbia perhaps reflect poor local governance. The blacks of the New York and Boston areas are doing better, as are places that blacks move to for jobs and pensioned retirements, such as Texas, Florida, and Georgia.
     
    My guess is that blacks in New York and Boston didn't suddenly become better behaved (well, better than the median given the overall decrease of crime 1994-2012), but rather that they've been shunted off to locales outside of New York and Boston proper via gentrification of formerly low income black neighborhoods. The cost of living for consumer goods and staples, especially in New York, made it difficult to remain. Meanwhile, the talented tenth Affirmative Action babies moved to New York City in order to partake in the come up, thus disguising she shift somewhat. You'd want to look at relative demographics and crime statistics in Essex and Union Counties, (#63 and #91, respectively) especially Newark, East Orange, Elizabeth, etc. over time.

    Figuring out where the 1990s Brooklyn blacks went as they were displaced by hipsters would be interesting. Tracey Morgan's The Last OG had a funny take on this:

    https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=CtgJkBU6uGk

    Also, it's interesting - Baltimore and St. Louis split apart in the 19th Century, while the City and the County of Philadelphia consolidated into one around the time of the Civil War (ergo, its archaic but accurate title is "The City and the County of Philadelphia"). N.B., New Castle County, DE and Delaware County, PA (#40 and #41 respectively) are essentially Southern extensions of Philadelphia, and were likely receiving grounds of displaced blacks during Philadelphia's period of gentrification.

    Replies: @Travis

    Another big reason for the lower homicide rates in NYC compared to Philly is the number of Blacks. There is a huge difference in the demographics of Philly and NYC. Even back in 1990 NYC was just 25% Black while Philly was 50% Black. With so many Blacks living in Philly, there is a much bigger risk of violence breaking out. In addition to fewer blacks in NYC than Philly, the whites in Philly are more prone to violence, drinking and drugs. If the Black population of NYC was 90% higher it would be closer to the demographics of Philadelphia. Imagine if NYC was 43% Black today?

    Whenever the share of the Black population exceeds 40% the level of violence between Blacks will be significantly higher. When the Black share of the population falls below 30% the area will be safer and it will be far safer for Blacks when there are fewer Blacks around.

    Another factor is density. Philadelphia has a density of 12,000 people per sq mile while Atlanta has a density of just 3,800 per sq mile. Philadelphia has triple the Black population of Atlanta with 700,000 Blacks living in Philadelphia and 230,000 Blacks in Atlanta While both cities are over 40% Black today the issues in Philly are compounded by higher density, thus more Blacks per square mile than any other large city in America. No large city has close to as many Blacks per square mile than Philadelphia. The closest would be Chicago. Even Detroit, which has 500,000 Blacks has a Black density less than Philadelphia. The Black density of Philly is 5,500 Blacks per square mile compared to just 3,000 for Detroit.

    • Thanks: BosTex
    • Replies: @Alec Leamas (working from home)
    @Travis


    Another big reason for the lower homicide rates in NYC compared to Philly is the number of Blacks. There is a huge difference in the demographics of Philly and NYC. Even back in 1990 NYC was just 25% Black while Philly was 50% Black. With so many Blacks living in Philly, there is a much bigger risk of violence breaking out. In addition to fewer blacks in NYC than Philly, the whites in Philly are more prone to violence, drinking and drugs. If the Black population of NYC was 90% higher it would be closer to the demographics of Philadelphia. Imagine if NYC was 43% Black today?
     
    Perhaps but crime in NYC was pretty bad overall in 1990 (its all-time high in murders), even with the lower black population relative to Philadelphia.

    Something else has happened in NYC besides a drop in a few percentage points in the black population that didn't happen in Philadelphia and elsewhere. (Philadelphia has actually gotten slightly less non-Hispanic black over the last few decades as well). My guess is that the worst behaved blacks have "boiled off" from NYC since the 1990s due in part to its exorbitant cost of living driven by gentrification and high impact, at-the-line-of-Constitutionality-or-over-it policing under the Giuliani/Bloomberg regimes. But that is probably something that you could only have in the modern era with a lower relative percentage of blacks in the polity - blacks typically coalesce around the black candidate.
    , @BosTex
    @Travis

    Thanks, interesting stats.

    Does make sense to think about population density.

    “Blax closely packed, time to get back.”

    I think this is what Derb is getting at in his “talk, non-black version” .

  56. @Art Deco
    @vinteuil

    Didn't get an answer out of you.

    Replies: @Mike Tre

    Either was an improvement over the pritzker children.

    • Replies: @Art Deco
    @Mike Tre

    I'm sure this made some sort of sense to you when you typed it.

    Replies: @Mike Tre

  57. The lowest black homicide rate is Fairfax County in the Virginia suburbs of DC. I’m under the impression a lot of blacks there are immigrants?

    ~34K foreign-born from African countries (source) divided by 123K total Black population equals 27.6% of the Black population in Fairfax County being immigrants, which is substantially higher than the District (4.5%) or Prince George’s County, MD (7.9%).

    I don’t know whether that’s confounded by inclusion of North Africans, but I also don’t know of any substantial North African populations in the area so I’d be confident betting that it’s accurate.

    Also, the ADOS Blacks who move to Fairfax County are necessarily the type who are willing to live in a place where their neighbors are mostly a different race – the Blackest Census tract in the county is 35% – which implies a higher than average level of commitment to getting along with people generally.

  58. @J1234

    I’m wondering whether the main effect we are seeing in this ranking isn’t much of a red vs. blue divide that people like to argue about, or even Ferguson or Floyd Effects, it’s that the better sort of blacks are abandoning old industrial heartland cities for suburbs or more modern economies in places like Georgia, Texas, and Florida, leaving behind the worst sort of blacks.
     
    It's interesting that the "black murder capital" award shifts from city to city over relatively brief periods of time. Detroit or New Orleans will be at or near the top of the list some years and then be replaced by Baltimore, Kansas City or St. Louis within a few years. As the above statement says, better quality black people move away from the w0rst areas. This is certainly true. Policing strategies (good and bad) play a role, too. Let's not forget, however, that violent black repeat offenders also move from city to city, usually in a more transient or migratory fashion. Darrell Brooks - whose trial just ended in Waukesha - lived in Sparks, NV for eight years and caused a lot of trouble there. He also lived in Georgia, and though his time there was brief, it was long enough for him to engage in more criminal behavior.

    An occasionally transient lifestyle doesn't seem that uncommon for violent blacks (probably non-blacks, too.) Though the homicide rate in my quarter million pop. midwestern city isn't that horrible (relatively speaking) this year's homicide numbers are up to ten so far. That's double what it's been in recent years and probably a record high number for us. When I moved here 25 years ago (during the national epidemic of gang violence in the '90's) there was about one or two murders a year, and some years there were none.

    Replies: @Polistra

    Yeah. Morgan Quitno used to publish a list of the nation’s 200 worst cities for violent crime. We were so happy where I live that our city had fallen completely off the list, after having been somewhat notorious in previous decades.

    Now we’re back on it, with a vengeance. No one here seems terribly troubled by it though, likely because only Bad People notice violent crime.

    And since crime is skyrocketing nearly everywhere, you really have to try to scale these “heights” lately. Well we’re doing it.

  59. @Reg Cæsar
    @Art Deco


    I don’t know how they could have prosecuted the war without your sage counsel.
     
    All the "sage counsel" needed was on the rectory shelves of the cathedrals destroyed, and their counterparts at home.

    You are pretty good at calling out progressives for their minor atrocities, but have a blind spot toward their biggest ones.

    Replies: @Art Deco

    Your complaint is twee. They prosecuted the war with the technology they had on hand, which wasn’t precise. If you have a better idea, you need to say what it is, and you need to have an informed opinion about the uses of military technology.

    • Replies: @Hibernian
    @Art Deco

    Area bombing was rationalized as a means to suppress Axis industrial production and starve their armies of arms and ammunition. It only served to motivate the civilian workforce to continually rebuild. At some point our generals knew they were just killing civilians and denying the enemy population.

    , @Reg Cæsar
    @Art Deco

    One could argue all day about "collateral damage" and why it's right when our guy does it and wrong when the other guy does. But as far as atomics go, you couldn't have designed a more ideal place to employ nuclear weapons with minimal casualties than the Japanese archipelago.
    A B student in junior-high geography could tell you why.

    That was a rejected option. It should have been the first.

    Replies: @Art Deco

  60. @Mike Tre
    @Art Deco

    Either was an improvement over the pritzker children.

    Replies: @Art Deco

    I’m sure this made some sort of sense to you when you typed it.

    • Replies: @Mike Tre
    @Art Deco

    LOL - you are a silly little person.

  61. @Travis
    @Alec Leamas (working from home)

    Another big reason for the lower homicide rates in NYC compared to Philly is the number of Blacks. There is a huge difference in the demographics of Philly and NYC. Even back in 1990 NYC was just 25% Black while Philly was 50% Black. With so many Blacks living in Philly, there is a much bigger risk of violence breaking out. In addition to fewer blacks in NYC than Philly, the whites in Philly are more prone to violence, drinking and drugs. If the Black population of NYC was 90% higher it would be closer to the demographics of Philadelphia. Imagine if NYC was 43% Black today?

    Whenever the share of the Black population exceeds 40% the level of violence between Blacks will be significantly higher. When the Black share of the population falls below 30% the area will be safer and it will be far safer for Blacks when there are fewer Blacks around.

    Another factor is density. Philadelphia has a density of 12,000 people per sq mile while Atlanta has a density of just 3,800 per sq mile. Philadelphia has triple the Black population of Atlanta with 700,000 Blacks living in Philadelphia and 230,000 Blacks in Atlanta While both cities are over 40% Black today the issues in Philly are compounded by higher density, thus more Blacks per square mile than any other large city in America. No large city has close to as many Blacks per square mile than Philadelphia. The closest would be Chicago. Even Detroit, which has 500,000 Blacks has a Black density less than Philadelphia. The Black density of Philly is 5,500 Blacks per square mile compared to just 3,000 for Detroit.

    Replies: @Alec Leamas (working from home), @BosTex

    Another big reason for the lower homicide rates in NYC compared to Philly is the number of Blacks. There is a huge difference in the demographics of Philly and NYC. Even back in 1990 NYC was just 25% Black while Philly was 50% Black. With so many Blacks living in Philly, there is a much bigger risk of violence breaking out. In addition to fewer blacks in NYC than Philly, the whites in Philly are more prone to violence, drinking and drugs. If the Black population of NYC was 90% higher it would be closer to the demographics of Philadelphia. Imagine if NYC was 43% Black today?

    Perhaps but crime in NYC was pretty bad overall in 1990 (its all-time high in murders), even with the lower black population relative to Philadelphia.

    Something else has happened in NYC besides a drop in a few percentage points in the black population that didn’t happen in Philadelphia and elsewhere. (Philadelphia has actually gotten slightly less non-Hispanic black over the last few decades as well). My guess is that the worst behaved blacks have “boiled off” from NYC since the 1990s due in part to its exorbitant cost of living driven by gentrification and high impact, at-the-line-of-Constitutionality-or-over-it policing under the Giuliani/Bloomberg regimes. But that is probably something that you could only have in the modern era with a lower relative percentage of blacks in the polity – blacks typically coalesce around the black candidate.

  62. @Art Deco
    @Recently Based

    About 20% of the working population in greater Washington consists of federal employees. These are affluent suburban areas, so you wouldn't expect much trouble. The trashy people who migrated out of the District collected in Prince George's County for the occult reasons some neighborhoods decline and others prosper.

    In greater Baltimore, the trashy people stayed in the core city.

    Replies: @Alec Leamas (working from home)

    About 20% of the working population in greater Washington consists of federal employees. These are affluent suburban areas, so you wouldn’t expect much trouble. The trashy people who migrated out of the District collected in Prince George’s County for the occult reasons some neighborhoods decline and others prosper.

    If you spend any time in affluent, suburban D.C. you could almost see how the ruling class believes what it does about diversity – the blacks there are the best blacks, likely just downstream of lucrative minority-preferred government contracting, and lots of them are affable and like to golf and whatnot. You wouldn’t mind if a few were your neighbors because they probably pamper their lawns and keep the siding painted and enjoy a cigar and have good senses of humor.

    Without much scrutiny of this state of affairs, you could suspect that blacks elsewhere misbehave solely because of their mistreatment by whites, rather than that suburban D.C. has accumulated a lot of the nation’s best behaved blacks for itself and Uncle Sam has subsidized their upper middle class lifestyles.

  63. @Travis
    @Alec Leamas (working from home)

    Another big reason for the lower homicide rates in NYC compared to Philly is the number of Blacks. There is a huge difference in the demographics of Philly and NYC. Even back in 1990 NYC was just 25% Black while Philly was 50% Black. With so many Blacks living in Philly, there is a much bigger risk of violence breaking out. In addition to fewer blacks in NYC than Philly, the whites in Philly are more prone to violence, drinking and drugs. If the Black population of NYC was 90% higher it would be closer to the demographics of Philadelphia. Imagine if NYC was 43% Black today?

    Whenever the share of the Black population exceeds 40% the level of violence between Blacks will be significantly higher. When the Black share of the population falls below 30% the area will be safer and it will be far safer for Blacks when there are fewer Blacks around.

    Another factor is density. Philadelphia has a density of 12,000 people per sq mile while Atlanta has a density of just 3,800 per sq mile. Philadelphia has triple the Black population of Atlanta with 700,000 Blacks living in Philadelphia and 230,000 Blacks in Atlanta While both cities are over 40% Black today the issues in Philly are compounded by higher density, thus more Blacks per square mile than any other large city in America. No large city has close to as many Blacks per square mile than Philadelphia. The closest would be Chicago. Even Detroit, which has 500,000 Blacks has a Black density less than Philadelphia. The Black density of Philly is 5,500 Blacks per square mile compared to just 3,000 for Detroit.

    Replies: @Alec Leamas (working from home), @BosTex

    Thanks, interesting stats.

    Does make sense to think about population density.

    “Blax closely packed, time to get back.”

    I think this is what Derb is getting at in his “talk, non-black version” .

  64. @Art Deco
    @Mike Tre

    I'm sure this made some sort of sense to you when you typed it.

    Replies: @Mike Tre

    LOL – you are a silly little person.

  65. Sun Yat-sen pump-and-dumped two underaged Japanese girls when he was 39

    During Sun’s exile in Japan, he had relationship with two Japanese women: 15-year-old Haru Asada, who he took as a concubine up to her death in 1902; and another 15-year-old in Kaoru Otsuki, who Sun married in 1905 and abandoned the next year.[125] Otsuki ended up bearing one child named Fumiko Miyagawa for Sun.[125]

    https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Sun_Yat-sen#Family

    Sun and Chiang Kai-shek allied with CCP and Soviets to overthrow the legitimate ROC Beiyang government in 1928. Chiang later liquidated tens of thousand Taiwanese elites from Japanese colonial era in 1947.

    https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/February_28_incident

    They are both on the New Taiwan dollar. Let’s not even get into the Renminbi.

  66. @Art Deco
    @Reg Cæsar

    Your complaint is twee. They prosecuted the war with the technology they had on hand, which wasn't precise. If you have a better idea, you need to say what it is, and you need to have an informed opinion about the uses of military technology.

    Replies: @Hibernian, @Reg Cæsar

    Area bombing was rationalized as a means to suppress Axis industrial production and starve their armies of arms and ammunition. It only served to motivate the civilian workforce to continually rebuild. At some point our generals knew they were just killing civilians and denying the enemy population.

  67. It only served to motivate the civilian workforce to continually rebuild. At some point our generals knew they were just killing civilians and denying the enemy population.

    Thanks for the issue of your imagination.

  68. @Art Deco
    @JohnnyWalker123

    Who would you prefer, Uday or Qusay?

    Replies: @vinteuil, @Wj

    I would blame rumsfeld and reagan and other european countries that sh the tech to make the weapons in the 80s. Those weapons were junk by the time we engaged in dumya’s folly in 2003

  69. @Reg Cæsar
    @JohnnyWalker123


    those responsible for the Iraq War (“weapons of mass destruction”)
     
    GWB was no guiltier than your hero FDR, several wars earlier. At least Saddam was being coy about WMDs-- he didn't have them, or maybe he did, or maybe he didn't but might, soon.

    The Brits had destroyed the German nuclear program (based in Norway) by 1943. Their leader had little interest, anyway. But we just had to have nukes, because they might. And we used them.

    GWB, HST, FDR... none of them belong on a coin.

    Replies: @anonymouseperson, @Art Deco, @Wj

    Saddam didnt have wmd and there was zero evidence he was trying to acquire them. For so many reasons it was the dumbest war in our history. Bush cheney should be in prison.

  70. (Michael Brown died on August 7, 2014, beginning the first BLM Era).

    I hear this over and over, but I know for a fact that it is not true. I lived in Florida at the time, and I saw BLM protests before the Gentle Giant got his just deserts.
    https://www.history.com/this-day-in-history/florida-teen-trayvon-martin-is-shot-and-killed

  71. @Art Deco
    @Reg Cæsar

    Your complaint is twee. They prosecuted the war with the technology they had on hand, which wasn't precise. If you have a better idea, you need to say what it is, and you need to have an informed opinion about the uses of military technology.

    Replies: @Hibernian, @Reg Cæsar

    One could argue all day about “collateral damage” and why it’s right when our guy does it and wrong when the other guy does. But as far as atomics go, you couldn’t have designed a more ideal place to employ nuclear weapons with minimal casualties than the Japanese archipelago.
    A B student in junior-high geography could tell you why.

    That was a rejected option. It should have been the first.

    • Replies: @Art Deco
    @Reg Cæsar

    That was a rejected option. It should have been the first.

    Your argument is what? We had two bombs.

    Replies: @Reg Cæsar

  72. @Reg Cæsar
    @Art Deco

    One could argue all day about "collateral damage" and why it's right when our guy does it and wrong when the other guy does. But as far as atomics go, you couldn't have designed a more ideal place to employ nuclear weapons with minimal casualties than the Japanese archipelago.
    A B student in junior-high geography could tell you why.

    That was a rejected option. It should have been the first.

    Replies: @Art Deco

    That was a rejected option. It should have been the first.

    Your argument is what? We had two bombs.

    • Replies: @Reg Cæsar
    @Art Deco


    We had two bombs.
     
    Has it occurred to you that just one of them dropped outside a city might have been more effective than inside it? After all, the first one didn't work, did it? Perhaps the threat would have been more powerful than the actual use. We'll never know, but it is at least as plausible as the depiction of grandmothers slaughtering our Marines with their garden rakes, the alternative we were fed later.

    To defend what we did, you have to argue that the tens of thousands of civilian lives taken are what made the difference, not the quantum leap in firepower itself. (Despite far greater numbers of civilian dead from "conventional" bombing in Tokyo, which changed nobody's mind.)

    The only way this argument works is if it led the Japanese leadership to think that we were amoral cynics with no regard for human life, and that our pretense to Christian ethics was all a fraud. The problem with that is, well... they'd have been right.
  73. @Art Deco
    @Reg Cæsar

    That was a rejected option. It should have been the first.

    Your argument is what? We had two bombs.

    Replies: @Reg Cæsar

    We had two bombs.

    Has it occurred to you that just one of them dropped outside a city might have been more effective than inside it? After all, the first one didn’t work, did it? Perhaps the threat would have been more powerful than the actual use. We’ll never know, but it is at least as plausible as the depiction of grandmothers slaughtering our Marines with their garden rakes, the alternative we were fed later.

    To defend what we did, you have to argue that the tens of thousands of civilian lives taken are what made the difference, not the quantum leap in firepower itself. (Despite far greater numbers of civilian dead from “conventional” bombing in Tokyo, which changed nobody’s mind.)

    The only way this argument works is if it led the Japanese leadership to think that we were amoral cynics with no regard for human life, and that our pretense to Christian ethics was all a fraud. The problem with that is, well… they’d have been right.

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