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The Vaccine Prioritization Plan
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Here’s the federal government’s plan for vaccine prioritization, which was approved 13-1 this week. States have some authority to alter it, but most are expected to more or less go along with it.

Presumably, the vertical axis is Number Vaccinated:

Proposed groups for Phase 1a vaccination Health care

Personnel (HCP) (~21 million)

Wow, America has 21 million health care workers. Health care is a huge fraction of the national GDP, so I guess that makes sense, but, still, wow. I’m wondering how many of them, however, are back room data clerks and the like who have zero need to interact with patients?

Vaccinating doctors, nurses, orderlies, etc. up front will serve as a vast Phase IV trial to see what turns up.

Having doctors go first is good propaganda. Most people trust their own personal doctor, so him saying, “I got my vaccination back on New Year’s Eve. My wife, who is also a doctor, and I are going out for dinner and dancing on Valentine’s Day because we are now virtually immune. So you’ll be getting vaccinated ASAP, right?”

Long-Term Care Facility (LTCF) Residents (~3M)

• Skilled nursing facilities (~1.3 M beds)
• Assisted living facilities (~0.8 M beds)
• Other residential care (~0.9 M beds)

Summary of Work Group considerations supporting
vaccinating health care personnel in Phase 1a
 As of Nov 30, at least 243,000 confirmed COVID-19 cases among HCP, with 858
deaths

So, the Case Fatality Rate for health care personnel has been about 0.4%. The Infection Fatality Rate would be lower, but probably not all that much lower because health care personnel get tested a lot. Health care workers probably average, what, in their early to mid-40s in age, and tend to be skinnier and healthier than the public average.

 LTCF modeling demonstrates more cases and death averted at the facility by
vaccinating staff compared to vaccinating residents2
 COVID-19 exposure (inside and outside the healthcare setting) results in
absenteeism due to quarantine, infection and illness. Vaccination has the potential
to reduce HCP absenteeism

If you get a case of COVID at the peak of a wave in your area and have to go to the hospital due to not being able to breathe, you don’t want to find when you arrive that a huge percentage of the workers at the hospital aren’t there because they are sick or quarantining.

Long-Term Care Facility (LTCF) residents and staff accounted for 6% of cases
and 40% of deaths in the U.S.1 (Nov 24, 2020)
– Skilled Nursing Facilities (~1.3M)
• ~496,000 confirmed + probable cases (as of Nov 15, 2020)2
• >69,000 deaths

So, that’s a Case Fatality Rate of about 14% in Long-Term Care Facilities.

Another presentation on the Monday meeting:

By the end of December, the number of doses available will be about 40 million,
enough to vaccinate 20 million people
– Anticipate 5-10 million doses per week post-authorization

If they could be confident of getting a steady 10 million extra doses per week in January, then they could inoculate 40 million in late December and have enough to re-inoculate on schedule in January. If not, then they have to keep some of the doses in the deep freeze for the second round.

How severe are the reactions to the vaccine? Not inconsiderable.

 
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  1. 100 million Americans have already recovered from COVID…The model, created by scientists at the Centers for Disease Control and Prevention, calculated that the true number of infections is about eight times the reported number, which includes only the cases confirmed by a laboratory test.
    https://www.npr.org/sections/coronavirus-live-updates/2020/11/26/939365087/government-model-suggests-u-s-covid-19-cases-could-be-approaching-100-million

    30% of the healthcare workers have already recovered from CV and probably still have the antibodies. It seems wasteful to give the vaccine to the millions of Americans who have recovered from COVID already. Back in April 24% of New York healthcare workers had the antibodies for COVID. Must be higher 10 months after the pandemic began.

    • Replies: @utu
    @Travis

    260,000 covid fatalities in the US at IFR=0.25% would imply 104 millions of infected. For the 'It is just a flu' people IFR would be lower, say, 0.1%. Then in the 'It is just a flu' people world 81% has already been infected which is above the herd immunity threshold. So how the 'It is just a flu' people explain that more people are still getting infected and dying? To explain it the 'It is just a flu' people must go to the real conspiracy stuff: fake death certificates, fake RT-PCR gets... The world of the 'It is just a flu' is safe and consoling, certainly one does not need vaccine in it, one does not need to fear of being infected.

    Replies: @Old Prude, @botazefa, @Travis

    , @That Would Be Telling
    @Travis


    30% of the healthcare workers have already recovered from CV and probably still have the antibodies. It seems wasteful to give the vaccine to the millions of Americans who have recovered from COVID already.
     
    If that (CDC!!!) guess is correct (and for once I'm comfortable with that bit of work from them), figuring out which 30% would require ~21 million antibody tests, probably of a significant degree of sophistication, you have to look for memory cells for those who are some distance in time from their infection, plus I hear there's a 96% general limit in accuracy of such testing. Going to be logistically much easier and financially much cheaper to just give them all vaccinations.

    Replies: @Hernan Pizzaro del Blanco, @MGB

    , @Je Suis Omar Mateen
    @Travis

    "30% of the healthcare workers have already recovered from CV and probably still have the antibodies. It seems wasteful to give the vaccine to the millions of Americans who have recovered from COVID already."

    My gf is a nurse and desperately wishes she could test positive for CoronaHoax and thus enjoy a paid two- to three-week vacation. She is around CH-positive people all day long and is frustrated she can't seem to contract this insidiously contagious PLAGUE. I don't have the heart to tell her she probably already had it and recovered because it's such a faggy cold. A fake vax 300 times less effective than her immune system is certainly wasted -- on her or anyone under the age of 50.

    Replies: @epebble

    , @slumber_j
    @Travis


    Back in April 24% of New York healthcare workers had the antibodies for COVID.
     
    Yeah, and thanks to our wondrous Governor Cuomo, who has no daddy issues whatsoever and is very handsome and charismatic, most of the surviving nursing home residents are probably already inoculated too!

    Replies: @Travis

  2. Anon[819] • Disclaimer says:

    From an information design point of view, why is the very last group at the top of the chart? In a, for instance, critical path diagram, all other things being equal, you’d have it in the opposite order. If there is some sort of y-axis-zero-origin reason, that doesn’t make sense for non-numeric category data.

    • Replies: @Steve Sailer
    @Anon

    If the y axis is Cumulative # of Doses Available, this design makes sense. Otherwise, as an agenda, it's distractingly backwards. Verbal lists of steps normally begin in the upper left corner, not in the lower left corner.

  3. So Xiden’s priorities, well his handlers priorities, are to vaccinate healthcare professionals (those who weren’t on hydroxychloroquine as a prophilactic) then proceed to all his unionized supporters in academia and K-12 education, SEIU members and then the OK boomers? THAT is a great idea. I’ll wait, really no, you first sucker.

    • Replies: @The Wild Geese Howard
    @Louis Renault


    THAT is a great idea.
     
    Well, they have to ease the burdens on Social Security and Medicare somehow....
    , @Whitney
    @Louis Renault

    It is so disturbing how many supposedly smart people are rushing to get this rushed vaccine. When I saw my doctor recently, who's a total pod person wearing a mask and a face shield, he said I would be last on the list to get a vaccine. I think he was trying to scare me but I just kept saying great! Sounds good!

    https://2020news.de/en/dr-wodarg-and-dr-yeadon-request-a-stop-of-all-corona-vaccination-studies-and-call-for-co-signing-the-petition/

    https://www.buzzfeed.com/amphtml/shaunlintern/these-nhs-staff-were-told-the-swine-flu-vaccine-was-safe

    Replies: @Kaz

    , @Alden
    @Louis Renault

    Once they’re all vaccinated will all the public school teachers get up in the morning get dressed and go off to work like everybody else?
    No, they’ll remain in their PJs loading on line classes for an hour a day.

    OT Tucker Carlson is on. He’s talking as though he believes election fraud is real.

  4. @Anon
    From an information design point of view, why is the very last group at the top of the chart? In a, for instance, critical path diagram, all other things being equal, you'd have it in the opposite order. If there is some sort of y-axis-zero-origin reason, that doesn't make sense for non-numeric category data.

    Replies: @Steve Sailer

    If the y axis is Cumulative # of Doses Available, this design makes sense. Otherwise, as an agenda, it’s distractingly backwards. Verbal lists of steps normally begin in the upper left corner, not in the lower left corner.

  5. How severe are the reactions to the vaccine? Not inconsiderable.

    I know one over-70 who is still reacting to the double-shingles vaccine. Terrible stuff; between hives and pain and inability to sleep, he’s a wreck. Before then he was a spry, totally in-shape dude. I won’t even say “good shape for his age” because most people younger then him are comparatively worse.

    And the Covid vaccine will be worse, I have no doubt.

    There’s an Englishman whose name I will not mention for fear of getting The Unz Review in trouble, but he’s published a lot and he has a YouTube channel. He as mentioned, seriously, that certain factions in the billionaire club want to kill what they consider useless eaters with all these vaccines.

    Except for themselves: Rockfellers, Rothschilds, and all the rest can still count on their average mortality age of 95.

    We live in strange times.

    • Replies: @That Would Be Telling
    @Franz


    I know one over-70 who is still reacting to the double-shingles vaccine. Terrible stuff; between hives and pain and inability to sleep, he’s a wreck. Before then he was a spry, totally in-shape dude. I won’t even say “good shape for his age” because most people younger then him are comparatively worse.
     
    How long ago did he get his shingle vaccine?

    And the Covid vaccine will be worse, I have no doubt.
     
    How many people are getting reactions that severe in these mRNA Phase III trials?? We've, the FDA, have safety data from a total of 29,000 people.
    , @utu
    @Franz

    https://www.mainstreetlawfirm.com/post/lawsuits-filed-over-injuries-from-shingles-vaccine

    Zostavax suits centralized in Philadelphia

    In August of last year, the U.S. Judicial Panel on Multidistrict Litigation centralized 57 similar suits in the Eastern District of Pennsylvania due to their similarities involving common questions of fact. The panel notes, “in this litigation, all plaintiffs allege they were injured by the same product in the same manner – exposure to the live attenuated virus in Zostavax – indicating common factual issues will arise concerning the potential risks associated with the use of the live virus in the vaccine” (3). There are also actions involving more than 300 plaintiffs in California state court and over 800 plaintiffs in New Jersey state court.

    GlaxoSmithKline's Shingrix vaccine - an alternative

    A second vaccine, called Shingrix, was approved by the FDA in 2017. Doctors recommend it for people over 50. Unlike Zostavax, it does not use a live form of the chicken pox virus, and it is more than 90% effective in preventing shingles. While Zostavax is given in a single shot, Shingrix is administered as two shots given between 2 and 6 months apart.
    Although we are not in a position to give any medical advice, it does seem that given the reported issues with Zostavax and its inferior efficacy (and unless you are allergic to Shingrix or if Shingrix is not available) Shingrix may be a superior shingles vaccination.

  6. Wow, America has 21 million health care workers. Health care is a huge fraction of the national GDP, so I guess that makes sense, but, still, wow.

    Go walk around a hospital. It’s mind-boggling how many people in scrubs there are. And that’s a subset of the employees.

    Or, think about your doctor’s office. Do they seem comically over-staffed to you? They seem comically over-staffed to me. There are always three or four girls sitting near the front desk not doing much of anything. Many of the staff who are sort of doing something aren’t doing anything useful. Surely, I could navigate to exam room 3 without a personal escort.

    It’s fun to talk to doctors (the solo practice ones or the ones in small group practices) about staffing—I mean if you are chatting socially away from their office. Generally, they seem to think their staff is inadequate and overworked. They think this because 1) the girls never stop bitching about being understaffed and overworked, and 2) the girls are constantly failing to get done what they are supposed to get done.

    By the way, lactation consultant is a real job.

    • Replies: @Elli
    @Bill

    I went to one medical practice that didn't take insurance. Three doctors, one secretary for appointments and bills . The doctors took vitals.

    Now I go to a medical practice that does take insurance. One doctor, one medical assistant who takes vitals, does EKGs and gives injections, one MA who takes dictation and enters medical notes during the exam, one appointments secretary, one medical coding clerk who codes the visits and enters them into the larger billing/hospital network system with which the doctor is affiliated. All of them are busy.

    Has there ever been a report on how much billing and insurance/Medicare/Medicaid compliance costs? I suspect at least 30% of the whole. It's an evolutionary arms race between providers and payers.

    Replies: @Seneca44, @Alden

  7. For a disease that’s supposedly a guaranteed death sentence, there’s an 86% survival rate among the oldest, frailest population.

    • Replies: @BenKenobi
    @prosa123

    Yep, it's another Holo-cough.


    I got my vaccination back on New Year’s Eve. My wife, who is also a doctor, and I are going out for dinner and dancing on Valentine’s Day because we are now virtually immune. So you’ll be getting vaccinated ASAP, right?
     
    Once you receive The Mark, you can go back to consooming. You want to consoom, don't you?
  8. So, the Case Fatality Rate for health care personnel has been about 0.4%. The Infection Fatality Rate would be lower, but probably not all that much lower because health care personnel get tested a lot. Health care workers probably average, what, in their early to mid-40s in age, and tend to be skinnier and healthier than the public average.

    These’s also a high proportion of minorities among health care workers, and minorities have a higher death rate.

    • Replies: @RadicalCenter
    @prosa123

    It would be good to see evidence for Steve’s assertion that healthcare workers are thinner than average, as well as for your broad assertion that “minorities” — meaning presumably all non-whites — are especially prone to dying from this virus.

    Here in LA there are tons of substantially overweight Mexican and other Latino people working in medical and dental offices and hospitals. I have had multiple pudgy white dentists in other States too, men and women.

    I have read only anecdotal or conclusory generalizations that this is the case for africans, but have never heard it for asians, for example.

    In any event, do we know how many of the healthcare workers who died with covid-19 (not necessarily “from” covid-19) were morbidly obese or diabetic? Presumably quite a few. Those have been cited as major comorbidities heightening the risk of death among people who otherwise would be at very, very low risk of dying or being permanently harmed by this virus, i.e. people who neither elderly nor suffering from a preexisting respiratory condition or immune system impairment.

  9. @Travis
    100 million Americans have already recovered from COVID...The model, created by scientists at the Centers for Disease Control and Prevention, calculated that the true number of infections is about eight times the reported number, which includes only the cases confirmed by a laboratory test.
    https://www.npr.org/sections/coronavirus-live-updates/2020/11/26/939365087/government-model-suggests-u-s-covid-19-cases-could-be-approaching-100-million

    30% of the healthcare workers have already recovered from CV and probably still have the antibodies. It seems wasteful to give the vaccine to the millions of Americans who have recovered from COVID already. Back in April 24% of New York healthcare workers had the antibodies for COVID. Must be higher 10 months after the pandemic began.

    Replies: @utu, @That Would Be Telling, @Je Suis Omar Mateen, @slumber_j

    260,000 covid fatalities in the US at IFR=0.25% would imply 104 millions of infected. For the ‘It is just a flu’ people IFR would be lower, say, 0.1%. Then in the ‘It is just a flu’ people world 81% has already been infected which is above the herd immunity threshold. So how the ‘It is just a flu’ people explain that more people are still getting infected and dying? To explain it the ‘It is just a flu’ people must go to the real conspiracy stuff: fake death certificates, fake RT-PCR gets… The world of the ‘It is just a flu’ is safe and consoling, certainly one does not need vaccine in it, one does not need to fear of being infected.

    • Replies: @Old Prude
    @utu

    utu, you can have my Cootie 19 vaccine; I already got my flu shot.

    , @botazefa
    @utu


    The world of the ‘It is just a flu’ is safe and consoling, certainly one does not need vaccine in it, one does not need to fear of being infected
     
    .

    Utu, if the flu vaccine did not exist wouldn't flu deaths be much higher than covid-19 deaths?

    I take the flu shot every year. That doesn't mean I'll be taking the covid vaccine. Why? Because the risk of me dying from the flu is higher than from coronavirus. I don't understand how people don't see the obvious.

    , @Travis
    @utu

    COVID is less fatal than the flu for those under the age of 40 and far worse than the flu for those over the age of 60. So half of the country has little to be concerned with. While the 20% of the population over the age of 60 has valid reasons to be concerned.

    The middle aged whites with children should be more concerned with the rising deaths of despair among those aged 20-40. while 6,000 of those under the age of 40 will die from COVID this year 65,000 will die from drugs or suicide this year. Shutting down the schools, sports, theaters, nightclubs will do lasting harm to young Americans, increasing levels of depression and anxiety. The shutdowns not only hurt their mental health it damages their economic prospects and social lives.

  10. I’m more than happy to donate my assigned doses to disadvantaged elderly BIPOCs.

    Forever.

  11. @Louis Renault
    So Xiden's priorities, well his handlers priorities, are to vaccinate healthcare professionals (those who weren't on hydroxychloroquine as a prophilactic) then proceed to all his unionized supporters in academia and K-12 education, SEIU members and then the OK boomers? THAT is a great idea. I'll wait, really no, you first sucker.

    Replies: @The Wild Geese Howard, @Whitney, @Alden

    THAT is a great idea.

    Well, they have to ease the burdens on Social Security and Medicare somehow….

  12. I keep thinking of the film “I Am Legend” and how the fictional cancer vaccine eventually turned people into “28 Days Later” crack zombies.

    I don’t wanna be first in line for this vaccine.

  13. Having doctors go first is good propaganda. Most people trust their own personal doctor, so him saying, “I got my vaccination back on New Year’s Eve. My wife, who is also a doctor, and I are going out for dinner and dancing on Valentine’s Day because we are now virtually immune. So you’ll be getting vaccinated ASAP, right?”

    On the other hand, doctors know more about what can go wrong when a vaccine is rushed out in a few months. There’s an article on this very website that quotes two separate doctors saying they’re going to wait and see for a year in case there’s any longer-term side effects.

    And anyway, aren’t these vaccines just promising to mitigate the symptoms, not prevent infection? The doctor and his wife should still be staying home on Valentine’s Day, right?

    • Replies: @That Would Be Telling
    @Barack Obama's secret Unz account


    And anyway, aren’t these vaccines just promising to mitigate the symptoms, not prevent infection?
     
    Mitigate the symptoms to "asymptotic," and a rigorous definition of that to the extent the participants follow their instructions. I think what you're trying to get at is data, proof for some value of proof, that's just not available at this time, so we're working on a reasonable assumption these vaccines also prevent transmission.

    Replies: @Barack Obama's secret Unz account

    , @Thomas Defelstrock
    @Barack Obama's secret Unz account

    Doctors are all specialists and specialists tend to be very ignorant of anything out of their specific field. Being a doctor of internal medicine is mostly about knowing what the book says you are supposed to do. These are the same people who not too long ago were telling everyone to eat hydrogenated margarine on white bread as a healthy snack. Before that they were telling people to smoke cigarettes. Basically doctors are morons. Very few of them know enough statistics to understand the results of a vaccine trial.

    Replies: @Barack Obama's secret Unz account, @Art Deco, @Alden

  14. @Louis Renault
    So Xiden's priorities, well his handlers priorities, are to vaccinate healthcare professionals (those who weren't on hydroxychloroquine as a prophilactic) then proceed to all his unionized supporters in academia and K-12 education, SEIU members and then the OK boomers? THAT is a great idea. I'll wait, really no, you first sucker.

    Replies: @The Wild Geese Howard, @Whitney, @Alden

    It is so disturbing how many supposedly smart people are rushing to get this rushed vaccine. When I saw my doctor recently, who’s a total pod person wearing a mask and a face shield, he said I would be last on the list to get a vaccine. I think he was trying to scare me but I just kept saying great! Sounds good!

    https://2020news.de/en/dr-wodarg-and-dr-yeadon-request-a-stop-of-all-corona-vaccination-studies-and-call-for-co-signing-the-petition/

    https://www.buzzfeed.com/amphtml/shaunlintern/these-nhs-staff-were-told-the-swine-flu-vaccine-was-safe

    • Replies: @Kaz
    @Whitney

    Maybe you're just dumb man

  15. @utu
    @Travis

    260,000 covid fatalities in the US at IFR=0.25% would imply 104 millions of infected. For the 'It is just a flu' people IFR would be lower, say, 0.1%. Then in the 'It is just a flu' people world 81% has already been infected which is above the herd immunity threshold. So how the 'It is just a flu' people explain that more people are still getting infected and dying? To explain it the 'It is just a flu' people must go to the real conspiracy stuff: fake death certificates, fake RT-PCR gets... The world of the 'It is just a flu' is safe and consoling, certainly one does not need vaccine in it, one does not need to fear of being infected.

    Replies: @Old Prude, @botazefa, @Travis

    utu, you can have my Cootie 19 vaccine; I already got my flu shot.

    • LOL: botazefa
  16. My health care provider only tests employees who show Covid-19 symptoms. This seemed odd because presumably they are being exposed frequently, and are also interacting with people who have lots of co-morbidities.

    • Replies: @Travis
    @eric

    my wife is a teacher, they get a free test whenever they want. Some of her co-workers get tested every 10 days because if they get tested positive they get 2 weeks of paid vacation.

    They were virtual until November 5th , then went virtual again on November 16th. The teachers are loving it. My wife can sleep until 9:00 and be ready for her first virtual class which begins at 10:00. This is one reason so many want the lock-downs to continue. Many people have much better lives now, as they do not need to commute to work, which is the worst part of working here in New Jersey. Most of the people I know are now working from home and most prefer it to going into the office.

  17. I think we should give it to Negroes first as reparations for slavery. If there’s any side effects…

    Oh, WAIT! There won’t be ANY side effects from the brand-new RNA manipulation/approved in a rush/politically-motivated/wait-until-after-the-election-to-announce-it/Pfizer-will-make-billions “miracle drug.”

    Of course!

    • Replies: @The Wild Geese Howard
    @Dr. X


    There won’t be ANY side effects from the brand-new RNA manipulation
     
    TPTB are smarter than that.

    The first few rounds of vax will be harmless to build confidence and lull people into a false sense of security.

    After three or four rounds of jabs we'll start to see ramps in the numbers rendered sterile, touched by terminal cancer, or afflicted by various odd wasting diseases.

    Replies: @botazefa

    , @Dani
    @Dr. X

    You raise an excellent point. Seeing as how even with THIS orchestrated scam of epic proportions they found a way to incorporate racial divide and conquer, "white supremacism" into the narrative, making a point of reporting on the "disproportionate" number of black Americans being afflicted with the scam/sham cooties. They further went on to say this was a result of testing not being made available enough in areas where these supposed disproportionately affected black Americans live (more lies, of course). So, ignoring that it is all utter BS so unprecedented I still marvel at how many give it any credibility, let's see it's all true, every word of it. It would only make sense the negroes take the jab first.
    Oh, and any and everyone should be further alarmed by the fact it is a multiple-round jab, to boot. Does there need to be writing in the sky? Well, besides the other crap they're letting loose up there.
    No flu shots, no vaccines, period.

  18. @Dr. X
    I think we should give it to Negroes first as reparations for slavery. If there's any side effects...

    Oh, WAIT! There won't be ANY side effects from the brand-new RNA manipulation/approved in a rush/politically-motivated/wait-until-after-the-election-to-announce-it/Pfizer-will-make-billions "miracle drug."

    Of course!

    Replies: @The Wild Geese Howard, @Dani

    There won’t be ANY side effects from the brand-new RNA manipulation

    TPTB are smarter than that.

    The first few rounds of vax will be harmless to build confidence and lull people into a false sense of security.

    After three or four rounds of jabs we’ll start to see ramps in the numbers rendered sterile, touched by terminal cancer, or afflicted by various odd wasting diseases.

    • Agree: omegabooks
    • Replies: @botazefa
    @The Wild Geese Howard



    The first few rounds of vax will be harmless to build confidence and lull people into a false sense of security

    After three or four rounds of jabs we’ll start to see ramps in the numbers rendered sterile, touched by terminal cancer, or afflicted by various odd wasting diseases
     
    .

    Do you honestly believe that vaccines are being developed for the purpose of injuring people? That is crazy. People believing crap like this is why we can't have nice things in the flyover states. It's no wonder college educated people think we are credulous nitwits.

    Replies: @The Wild Geese Howard

  19. Raul Meijer at his Automatic Earth blog has a new post detailing the flaws in A. PCR tests. B. the vaccine clinical trials and C. lack of protection the vaccines afford. If he is correct then Big Pharma is pulling the Biggest Scam ever.

  20. “How severe are the reactions to the vaccine? Not inconsiderable.”

    This point has not been emphasized enough: What exactly are the long term side effects of the two COVID vaccines? Suppose after a year of the vaccines being given to the US population in considerate numbers, it does turn out that it provokes an adverse reaction and causes death, or, that it takes 5-8 yrs off of a person’s normal projected lifespan? Was taking the vaccine (for those persons who didn’t have COVID, but merely opted to guard vs infection down the road) really worth it in the long run? After all, there is the chance that some people will never become infected with COVID during their lifetimes.

    Because the vaccines were developed relatively quickly, especially in comparison to previous vaccines in the past, it can be stated that the medical community “rushed” the vaccines out, while downplaying or rather not fully determining the long term side effects with the various trial populations that were tested. Suppose the vaccines in some cases directly lead to cancer, or heart disease? Or even a stroke in some cases? Weighed in that light, was it worth it?

    Not anti-vaccines by any stretch, but it is important to consider all the necessary variables. Because of the relatively short time frame of developing the vaccine and it is now about to be available to the general public within a short time, these variables should be seriously debated and considered. Becaue of the short time frame of research and development, it doesn’t appear as if the potential long term side effects to people’s health was seriously considered. Does one gain a relatively safe protection but sacrifice a part (or even most in some instances) of their long term health in the process?

    Side effects, especially with vaccines, should not be so cavalierly discarded but rather should be seriously considered instead.

    • Replies: @That Would Be Telling
    @Yojimbo/Zatoichi


    it is now about to be available to the general public within a short time
     
    Bzzzt! You're either ignorant of what little a FDA Emergency Use Authorization (EUA) allows (granted, in this pandemic context, tens of millions of vaccinations), or are presuming the FDA will grant "approval" for general populations "within a short time," while ignoring for that process they're going to continue collecting Phase II, III, and "IV" data, the latter from those who are going to get vaccinated under the EUA.

    More than a little of your post posits malice on the part of those involved in all this, and you're totally ignoring the risk/reward calculation that's behind every decision to license a medication. How many people are you willing to sacrifice to COVID-19, morbidity as well as mortality, to calm your fears? Exactly how many months or years of Phase II and Phase III data would satisfy you?

    Replies: @RadicalCenter

    , @Satanax
    @Yojimbo/Zatoichi

    They know all this. So stop the futile debate and run to the hills if you want to save yourself. They have you where they want you: under their boots. The Gestapo is now armed with a syringe.

    Replies: @utu

  21. @Bill

    Wow, America has 21 million health care workers. Health care is a huge fraction of the national GDP, so I guess that makes sense, but, still, wow.
     
    Go walk around a hospital. It's mind-boggling how many people in scrubs there are. And that's a subset of the employees.

    Or, think about your doctor's office. Do they seem comically over-staffed to you? They seem comically over-staffed to me. There are always three or four girls sitting near the front desk not doing much of anything. Many of the staff who are sort of doing something aren't doing anything useful. Surely, I could navigate to exam room 3 without a personal escort.

    It's fun to talk to doctors (the solo practice ones or the ones in small group practices) about staffing---I mean if you are chatting socially away from their office. Generally, they seem to think their staff is inadequate and overworked. They think this because 1) the girls never stop bitching about being understaffed and overworked, and 2) the girls are constantly failing to get done what they are supposed to get done.

    By the way, lactation consultant is a real job.

    Replies: @Elli

    I went to one medical practice that didn’t take insurance. Three doctors, one secretary for appointments and bills . The doctors took vitals.

    Now I go to a medical practice that does take insurance. One doctor, one medical assistant who takes vitals, does EKGs and gives injections, one MA who takes dictation and enters medical notes during the exam, one appointments secretary, one medical coding clerk who codes the visits and enters them into the larger billing/hospital network system with which the doctor is affiliated. All of them are busy.

    Has there ever been a report on how much billing and insurance/Medicare/Medicaid compliance costs? I suspect at least 30% of the whole. It’s an evolutionary arms race between providers and payers.

    • Replies: @Seneca44
    @Elli

    As one of the smaller guys who take insurance, I think your estimate is correct. One kind of shocking thing that you never see in the media is that administrative costs eat up 25% of inpatient costs which is quite literally billions of dollars. It is also interesting to see that the PPP money went out at about $8 billion to Medicare part B (doctors and outpatient providers) and $92 billion to part A (mostly hospitals but some nursing homes and rehab centers).

    Your metaphor of an arms race between providers and insurers is very apt and has been so for my entire career.

    , @Alden
    @Elli

    Dr friends tell me chasing the insurance companies for payment is about 40 percent of the cost of a practice. Then there’s the DEA. Even the mildest pain killer prescription requires faxes, faxes to 4 or 5 different places. That’s what the clerks do all day.

  22. @Travis
    100 million Americans have already recovered from COVID...The model, created by scientists at the Centers for Disease Control and Prevention, calculated that the true number of infections is about eight times the reported number, which includes only the cases confirmed by a laboratory test.
    https://www.npr.org/sections/coronavirus-live-updates/2020/11/26/939365087/government-model-suggests-u-s-covid-19-cases-could-be-approaching-100-million

    30% of the healthcare workers have already recovered from CV and probably still have the antibodies. It seems wasteful to give the vaccine to the millions of Americans who have recovered from COVID already. Back in April 24% of New York healthcare workers had the antibodies for COVID. Must be higher 10 months after the pandemic began.

    Replies: @utu, @That Would Be Telling, @Je Suis Omar Mateen, @slumber_j

    30% of the healthcare workers have already recovered from CV and probably still have the antibodies. It seems wasteful to give the vaccine to the millions of Americans who have recovered from COVID already.

    If that (CDC!!!) guess is correct (and for once I’m comfortable with that bit of work from them), figuring out which 30% would require ~21 million antibody tests, probably of a significant degree of sophistication, you have to look for memory cells for those who are some distance in time from their infection, plus I hear there’s a 96% general limit in accuracy of such testing. Going to be logistically much easier and financially much cheaper to just give them all vaccinations.

    • Replies: @Hernan Pizzaro del Blanco
    @That Would Be Telling

    Probably a million health care workers have already tested positive for Coronavirus or for the antibodies. My aunt is a nurse and did the antibody test in August , must be a significant number of workers who have tested positive over the last 6 months. Would these people still want to get vaccinated after they recovered from COVID ?

    Red Cross is testing for antibodies for free when you donate blood. Or the healthcare workers could probably get their insurance to pay for it.

    New York tested 2 million New Yorkers for antibodies from April to July so 1 in 4 New Yorkers were tested by July for the antibodies and over 20% had the antibodies in every week they tested , after peaking at 30% in April it fell to 20% by July. In Corona Queens 60% of those tested had the antibodies.

    Replies: @Jack D

    , @MGB
    @That Would Be Telling

    that's not quite correct. according to recent studies, Covid specific T-Cells are also produced in reaction to an exposure/infection, and the T-Cells are more persistent than Covid-specific anti-bodies.
    so a T-Cell test might be more accurate than anti-body testing. More importantly, infection/exposure does not always result in anti-body production. Often the virus is dealt with efficiently without the production of anti-bodies through a variety of defenses, including T-Cells, macrophages, etc. (there was some TV presenter half-wit blabbering on that 8% of the state population who it is projected had tested positive for anti-bodies prove that 92% of the state population still had not yet been exposed to the Covid, 'proving' that a huge wave of cases was on the horizon. One of the reasons i stopped watching TV for information on the pandemic.)

  23. @Franz

    How severe are the reactions to the vaccine? Not inconsiderable.
     
    I know one over-70 who is still reacting to the double-shingles vaccine. Terrible stuff; between hives and pain and inability to sleep, he's a wreck. Before then he was a spry, totally in-shape dude. I won't even say "good shape for his age" because most people younger then him are comparatively worse.

    And the Covid vaccine will be worse, I have no doubt.

    There's an Englishman whose name I will not mention for fear of getting The Unz Review in trouble, but he's published a lot and he has a YouTube channel. He as mentioned, seriously, that certain factions in the billionaire club want to kill what they consider useless eaters with all these vaccines.

    Except for themselves: Rockfellers, Rothschilds, and all the rest can still count on their average mortality age of 95.

    We live in strange times.

    Replies: @That Would Be Telling, @utu

    I know one over-70 who is still reacting to the double-shingles vaccine. Terrible stuff; between hives and pain and inability to sleep, he’s a wreck. Before then he was a spry, totally in-shape dude. I won’t even say “good shape for his age” because most people younger then him are comparatively worse.

    How long ago did he get his shingle vaccine?

    And the Covid vaccine will be worse, I have no doubt.

    How many people are getting reactions that severe in these mRNA Phase III trials?? We’ve, the FDA, have safety data from a total of 29,000 people.

  24. @Barack Obama's secret Unz account

    Having doctors go first is good propaganda. Most people trust their own personal doctor, so him saying, “I got my vaccination back on New Year’s Eve. My wife, who is also a doctor, and I are going out for dinner and dancing on Valentine’s Day because we are now virtually immune. So you’ll be getting vaccinated ASAP, right?”
     
    On the other hand, doctors know more about what can go wrong when a vaccine is rushed out in a few months. There's an article on this very website that quotes two separate doctors saying they're going to wait and see for a year in case there's any longer-term side effects.

    And anyway, aren't these vaccines just promising to mitigate the symptoms, not prevent infection? The doctor and his wife should still be staying home on Valentine's Day, right?

    Replies: @That Would Be Telling, @Thomas Defelstrock

    And anyway, aren’t these vaccines just promising to mitigate the symptoms, not prevent infection?

    Mitigate the symptoms to “asymptotic,” and a rigorous definition of that to the extent the participants follow their instructions. I think what you’re trying to get at is data, proof for some value of proof, that’s just not available at this time, so we’re working on a reasonable assumption these vaccines also prevent transmission.

    • Replies: @Barack Obama's secret Unz account
    @That Would Be Telling


    I think what you’re trying to get at is data, proof for some value of proof, that’s just not available at this time, so we’re working on a reasonable assumption these vaccines also prevent transmission.
     
    I'm just a humble ex-president, so maybe I don't understand - I thought the vaccine testing protocol or whatever relied on people getting the virus? i.e., they were making announcements of progress at 32 positive cases, 64, etc.

    Replies: @That Would Be Telling

  25. @Franz

    How severe are the reactions to the vaccine? Not inconsiderable.
     
    I know one over-70 who is still reacting to the double-shingles vaccine. Terrible stuff; between hives and pain and inability to sleep, he's a wreck. Before then he was a spry, totally in-shape dude. I won't even say "good shape for his age" because most people younger then him are comparatively worse.

    And the Covid vaccine will be worse, I have no doubt.

    There's an Englishman whose name I will not mention for fear of getting The Unz Review in trouble, but he's published a lot and he has a YouTube channel. He as mentioned, seriously, that certain factions in the billionaire club want to kill what they consider useless eaters with all these vaccines.

    Except for themselves: Rockfellers, Rothschilds, and all the rest can still count on their average mortality age of 95.

    We live in strange times.

    Replies: @That Would Be Telling, @utu

    https://www.mainstreetlawfirm.com/post/lawsuits-filed-over-injuries-from-shingles-vaccine

    Zostavax suits centralized in Philadelphia

    In August of last year, the U.S. Judicial Panel on Multidistrict Litigation centralized 57 similar suits in the Eastern District of Pennsylvania due to their similarities involving common questions of fact. The panel notes, “in this litigation, all plaintiffs allege they were injured by the same product in the same manner – exposure to the live attenuated virus in Zostavax – indicating common factual issues will arise concerning the potential risks associated with the use of the live virus in the vaccine” (3). There are also actions involving more than 300 plaintiffs in California state court and over 800 plaintiffs in New Jersey state court.

    GlaxoSmithKline’s Shingrix vaccine – an alternative

    A second vaccine, called Shingrix, was approved by the FDA in 2017. Doctors recommend it for people over 50. Unlike Zostavax, it does not use a live form of the chicken pox virus, and it is more than 90% effective in preventing shingles. While Zostavax is given in a single shot, Shingrix is administered as two shots given between 2 and 6 months apart.
    Although we are not in a position to give any medical advice, it does seem that given the reported issues with Zostavax and its inferior efficacy (and unless you are allergic to Shingrix or if Shingrix is not available) Shingrix may be a superior shingles vaccination.

  26. @That Would Be Telling
    @Travis


    30% of the healthcare workers have already recovered from CV and probably still have the antibodies. It seems wasteful to give the vaccine to the millions of Americans who have recovered from COVID already.
     
    If that (CDC!!!) guess is correct (and for once I'm comfortable with that bit of work from them), figuring out which 30% would require ~21 million antibody tests, probably of a significant degree of sophistication, you have to look for memory cells for those who are some distance in time from their infection, plus I hear there's a 96% general limit in accuracy of such testing. Going to be logistically much easier and financially much cheaper to just give them all vaccinations.

    Replies: @Hernan Pizzaro del Blanco, @MGB

    Probably a million health care workers have already tested positive for Coronavirus or for the antibodies. My aunt is a nurse and did the antibody test in August , must be a significant number of workers who have tested positive over the last 6 months. Would these people still want to get vaccinated after they recovered from COVID ?

    Red Cross is testing for antibodies for free when you donate blood. Or the healthcare workers could probably get their insurance to pay for it.

    New York tested 2 million New Yorkers for antibodies from April to July so 1 in 4 New Yorkers were tested by July for the antibodies and over 20% had the antibodies in every week they tested , after peaking at 30% in April it fell to 20% by July. In Corona Queens 60% of those tested had the antibodies.

    • Replies: @Jack D
    @Hernan Pizzaro del Blanco


    Would these people still want to get vaccinated after they recovered from COVID ?
     
    Probably yes. No one knows how long your natural immunity to Covid lasts. At worst * the vaccination would act as a booster shot or do nothing. If the vaccine caused side effects to people who already had the disease this would have showed up already in the trial because some (according to the geniuses here, most) of the trial participants would have already, knowingly or unknowingly, had covid.

    Since the vaccine will be in short supply at first, it probably makes sense not to give it to people who have had known cases of Covid since they (probably) have immunity already but I don't think that is accounted for in the official priority list. Such persons might want to voluntarily abstain so that others can get this shot at first and then get the vaccination once it becomes freely available.

    *at worst it turns you into a sterile, cancerous mind controlled zombie, but I am talking about the real world odds and not the science fiction fantasies that some are spouting here.

    Replies: @aleksander

  27. “Health care workers probably average, what, in their early to mid-40s in age, and tend to be skinnier and healthier than the public average.”

    Home health aide are poorly paid, poorly treated, and numerous. My impression is they are on the fat side.

    “Long-Term Care Facility (LTCF) residents and staff accounted for 6% of cases
    and 40% of deaths “. Which is to say the old and informed.

  28. I saw 2 Drs the last week of February. A few days before the lockdown. One was wearing a medical mask, he told me he was only wearing it so his patients wouldn’t complain and feel uncomfortable. Beverly Hills, I’m probably the only patient in the practice who isn’t a whiny neurotic complaining Jew. He told me the medical masks were useless for protection because they don’t fit tightly. Told me don’t bother wearing them.

    Next day saw another Dr in WASP Santa Monica. No masks in sight. He also told me no need to wear a mask. Flew to family home just in time for the lockdown a few days later. Empty airport and garage stocked with enough food for years. Next appointment with the Santa Monica Dr had to do it on zoom because their office was shut down for fear of covid hoax.

    I’ll avoid a covid hoax shot as I avoid flu shots. Flu is caused by going to work and school with other people. Haven’t had flu since I retired.

    After 40 years Climate Change didn’t work. Even liberals noticed the ocean had not advanced 30 miles inland. So TPTB invented covid hoax for some nefarious purpose. I know it’s a hoax because the LASlimes, NYSlimes Washington Post tells me covid is a new disease.

    Syllogism

    Every word in NYSlimes is a lie.
    NYSlimes writes covid is a deadly epidemic
    Therefore there is no covid epidemic.

    Anything in those newspapers is always a lie.

  29. @Louis Renault
    So Xiden's priorities, well his handlers priorities, are to vaccinate healthcare professionals (those who weren't on hydroxychloroquine as a prophilactic) then proceed to all his unionized supporters in academia and K-12 education, SEIU members and then the OK boomers? THAT is a great idea. I'll wait, really no, you first sucker.

    Replies: @The Wild Geese Howard, @Whitney, @Alden

    Once they’re all vaccinated will all the public school teachers get up in the morning get dressed and go off to work like everybody else?
    No, they’ll remain in their PJs loading on line classes for an hour a day.

    OT Tucker Carlson is on. He’s talking as though he believes election fraud is real.

  30. @Yojimbo/Zatoichi
    "How severe are the reactions to the vaccine? Not inconsiderable."

    This point has not been emphasized enough: What exactly are the long term side effects of the two COVID vaccines? Suppose after a year of the vaccines being given to the US population in considerate numbers, it does turn out that it provokes an adverse reaction and causes death, or, that it takes 5-8 yrs off of a person's normal projected lifespan? Was taking the vaccine (for those persons who didn't have COVID, but merely opted to guard vs infection down the road) really worth it in the long run? After all, there is the chance that some people will never become infected with COVID during their lifetimes.

    Because the vaccines were developed relatively quickly, especially in comparison to previous vaccines in the past, it can be stated that the medical community "rushed" the vaccines out, while downplaying or rather not fully determining the long term side effects with the various trial populations that were tested. Suppose the vaccines in some cases directly lead to cancer, or heart disease? Or even a stroke in some cases? Weighed in that light, was it worth it?

    Not anti-vaccines by any stretch, but it is important to consider all the necessary variables. Because of the relatively short time frame of developing the vaccine and it is now about to be available to the general public within a short time, these variables should be seriously debated and considered. Becaue of the short time frame of research and development, it doesn't appear as if the potential long term side effects to people's health was seriously considered. Does one gain a relatively safe protection but sacrifice a part (or even most in some instances) of their long term health in the process?

    Side effects, especially with vaccines, should not be so cavalierly discarded but rather should be seriously considered instead.

    Replies: @That Would Be Telling, @Satanax

    it is now about to be available to the general public within a short time

    Bzzzt! You’re either ignorant of what little a FDA Emergency Use Authorization (EUA) allows (granted, in this pandemic context, tens of millions of vaccinations), or are presuming the FDA will grant “approval” for general populations “within a short time,” while ignoring for that process they’re going to continue collecting Phase II, III, and “IV” data, the latter from those who are going to get vaccinated under the EUA.

    More than a little of your post posits malice on the part of those involved in all this, and you’re totally ignoring the risk/reward calculation that’s behind every decision to license a medication. How many people are you willing to sacrifice to COVID-19, morbidity as well as mortality, to calm your fears? Exactly how many months or years of Phase II and Phase III data would satisfy you?

    • Replies: @RadicalCenter
    @That Would Be Telling

    The FDA Emergency Use Authorization has little effect, you say, because it merely authorizes the hasty manufacture and administration of tens of millions of doses of liability-free vaccines.

    Nothing to add.

  31. @Travis
    100 million Americans have already recovered from COVID...The model, created by scientists at the Centers for Disease Control and Prevention, calculated that the true number of infections is about eight times the reported number, which includes only the cases confirmed by a laboratory test.
    https://www.npr.org/sections/coronavirus-live-updates/2020/11/26/939365087/government-model-suggests-u-s-covid-19-cases-could-be-approaching-100-million

    30% of the healthcare workers have already recovered from CV and probably still have the antibodies. It seems wasteful to give the vaccine to the millions of Americans who have recovered from COVID already. Back in April 24% of New York healthcare workers had the antibodies for COVID. Must be higher 10 months after the pandemic began.

    Replies: @utu, @That Would Be Telling, @Je Suis Omar Mateen, @slumber_j

    “30% of the healthcare workers have already recovered from CV and probably still have the antibodies. It seems wasteful to give the vaccine to the millions of Americans who have recovered from COVID already.”

    My gf is a nurse and desperately wishes she could test positive for CoronaHoax and thus enjoy a paid two- to three-week vacation. She is around CH-positive people all day long and is frustrated she can’t seem to contract this insidiously contagious PLAGUE. I don’t have the heart to tell her she probably already had it and recovered because it’s such a faggy cold. A fake vax 300 times less effective than her immune system is certainly wasted — on her or anyone under the age of 50.

    • Agree: BB753
    • Replies: @epebble
    @Je Suis Omar Mateen

    She is around CH-positive people all day long and is frustrated she can’t seem to contract this

    She can ask one of the patients to remove the mask and breathe heavily or cough in her face. It is easy to catch if she is near other persons face and they are both unmasked.

  32. OT: How the narrative about Covid-19 pandemic will have to be changed to incorporate growing evidence that it was present in the West already in 2019?

    There are only two options. (1) The antibody tests in the old blood samples are inaccurate or purposefully manipulated or (2) The pandemic is nothing as it can silently spread for months without being noticed.

    How did Covid REALLY spread around the world? New damning test results that show antibodies were in US in December – WEEKS before China raised the alarm – add to growing global evidence of a cover-up
    https://www.dailymail.co.uk/news/article-9009297/How-did-Covid-REALLY-spread-world-Coronavirus-blood-samples-December.html

    September 3, 2019 – Veneto, Italy: A study carried out in Italy, by the National Cancer Institute in Milan, found coronavirus antibodies in 111 people out of 959 blood samples taken before March 2020. The first sample that tested positive was dated September 3 and collected in the Veneto region of the country. Italy announced its first official case on February 20.

    September 4 and 5, 2019 – Emilia Romagna and Liguria, Italy: The National Cancer Institute study found antibodies in blood samples taken from the two regions, which are to the south-west of Veneto.

    September 9, 2019 – Lombardy, Italy: The first two antibody-positive samples from Lombardy, the Alpine region that contains Milan and was one of the worst hit places in the world during the first wave, date back to September 9. By the time all of September’s samples had been analysed, 13 out of 23 that were antibody positive had been taken in Lombardy.

    September 11, 2019 – Lazio, Italy: The first antibody-positive specimen found from the Lazio region was dated September 11.

    November 2019 – Brazil: Analysis of past human sewage samples from the southern Brazilian region of Santa Catalina found traces of the SARS-Cov-2 coronavirus as early as November 27. In the city of Florianopolis, samples from between October 30 and March were analysed, will all samples from

    November 27 onwards testing positive. Brazil announced its first official case on February 26.

    November 2019 – China: Leaked government documents show cases of coronavirus were being recorded in Wuhan as early as November 17, the South China Morning Post reported in March. China announced its first official cases on December 31.

    December 2019 – United States: A CDC study published on November 30 2020 revealed that coronavirus antibodies had been found in blood samples taken from people in California, Oregon and Washington as early as December 17. Further testing found Covid-positive samples dating to mid-

    December and early January in Connecticut, Iowa, Massachusetts, Michigan, Rhode Island and Wisconsin. The US announced its first official case on January 21.

    December 2019 – France: A man who was coughing up blood in intensive care in Paris on December 27 2019 has since been found to have had coronavirus. Scientists discovered the airport worker by trawling back through patients hospitalised with flu-like symptoms in December. A retrospective coronavirus test done on blood samples taken while he was in hospital found he was infected with the virus at the time, according to a study published in the International Journal of Antimicrobial Agents. France announced its first official case on January 24.

    December 2019 – China: The first cases of ‘pneumonia of unknown cause’ are reported to the World Health Organization by Chinese officials. A total of 44 had been declared by January 3.

    January 2020 – Spain: A study by the University of Barcelona discovered traces of the coronavirus in sewage in the city in a sample from January 15. It has been regularly testing sewage during the pandemic to track the presence of the virus, and a look back at older samples found it weeks before Covid-19 was officially discovered in the city. An even older sample showed a ‘low’ concentration of the virus in March 2019, but this required further research to confirm, scientists said. Spain announced its first official case on January 31.

    January 2020 – United Kingdom: A man who died on January 30 after falling ill in December later had his death attributed to Covid-19 by a coroner after traces of coronavirus were found in his lungs. Peter Attwood, 84, had developed symptoms of coronavirus on December 28 and later died in hospital, his daughter said, and she also reported being ill with a similar condition in December. Mr Attwood’s death happened a day before Britain’s first cases of coronavirus were reported on January 31.

    • Replies: @The Last Real Calvinist
    @utu

    Thanks for compiling this.

    Widespread cases showing up in 2019 all over the place doesn't refute the China-as-original-source hypothesis, but it certainly makes the whole thing more complicated.

    The cases from Italy are especially striking. The virus could still have come over from Wuhan via the textile workers route that became accepted as the conventional wisdom, but really, who knows?

    Replies: @utu, @Steve Sailer

    , @Satanax
    @utu

    That's it. They won. Proof of their total victory is here in these endless, senseless and fruitless debates: you are chasing your own tails. They want you to debate among yourselves to the end of time because it is an effective weapon of mass distraction while they are implementing the Great Reset. There is no virus. Covid19 is a global psy-op, not a disease. One hint among numerous others: in the very beginning, even Fauci said this was no worse than the seasonal flu. The evidences are everywhere of this being a massive and very effective global fear campaign. Just open your eyes and look! It's amazing that for some Covid has become a religion, even among the so-called intellectuals. All governments are in it together, acting out the same script forced on them by the globalists. The slaves are all being played.

    Replies: @The Wild Geese Howard

    , @Old Prude
    @utu

    I know six people who probably had Covid by February 2020. One was just returned to Maine from a trip to Orlando, then gifted it to her live-in. Both missed work for a few days then got on with their lives...until the hysteria started. You know the rest.

    , @Old Prude
    @utu

    I know six people who probably had Covid by February 2020. One was just returned to Maine from a trip to Orlando, then gifted it to her live-in. Both missed work for a few days then got on with their lives...until the hysteria started. You know the rest.

    , @Travis
    @utu

    The CDC analyzed more than 7,000 blood donations collected by the American Red Cross in nine states between Dec. 13, 2019 and Jan. 17, 2020. Of those, 106 samples tested positive for antibodies against SARS-CoV-2, the virus that causes COVID-19. https://academic.oup.com/cid/advance-article/doi/10.1093/cid/ciaa1785/6012472

    The scientists indicated it’s unlikely that the antibodies developed to curb other coronaviruses, as 84 samples were found to have neutralizing activity specific to SARS-CoV-2.
    https://www.bloomberg.com/news/articles/2020-12-01/covid-infections-found-in-u-s-in-2019-weeks-before-china-cases

    It takes up to 3 weeks to develop antibodies, so this coronavirus virus must have been circulating across America since November 2019. Over 1% of the Red Cross blood samples taken from Californians had antibodies to COVID 19 in December 2019.

    Replies: @utu, @Jack D

  33. The problem with all these vaccines is the rushed development with truncated safety testing. We know that even standard safety testing can miss serious problems (remember the RotaShield debacle? https://www.cdc.gov/mmwr/preview/mmwrhtml/mm4843a5.htm ).

    If it were not for the political valence of the coronavirus panic, one would ask for a much more gradual rollout of these vaccines with careful monitoring of side effects as well as efficacy.

  34. @Yojimbo/Zatoichi
    "How severe are the reactions to the vaccine? Not inconsiderable."

    This point has not been emphasized enough: What exactly are the long term side effects of the two COVID vaccines? Suppose after a year of the vaccines being given to the US population in considerate numbers, it does turn out that it provokes an adverse reaction and causes death, or, that it takes 5-8 yrs off of a person's normal projected lifespan? Was taking the vaccine (for those persons who didn't have COVID, but merely opted to guard vs infection down the road) really worth it in the long run? After all, there is the chance that some people will never become infected with COVID during their lifetimes.

    Because the vaccines were developed relatively quickly, especially in comparison to previous vaccines in the past, it can be stated that the medical community "rushed" the vaccines out, while downplaying or rather not fully determining the long term side effects with the various trial populations that were tested. Suppose the vaccines in some cases directly lead to cancer, or heart disease? Or even a stroke in some cases? Weighed in that light, was it worth it?

    Not anti-vaccines by any stretch, but it is important to consider all the necessary variables. Because of the relatively short time frame of developing the vaccine and it is now about to be available to the general public within a short time, these variables should be seriously debated and considered. Becaue of the short time frame of research and development, it doesn't appear as if the potential long term side effects to people's health was seriously considered. Does one gain a relatively safe protection but sacrifice a part (or even most in some instances) of their long term health in the process?

    Side effects, especially with vaccines, should not be so cavalierly discarded but rather should be seriously considered instead.

    Replies: @That Would Be Telling, @Satanax

    They know all this. So stop the futile debate and run to the hills if you want to save yourself. They have you where they want you: under their boots. The Gestapo is now armed with a syringe.

    • Replies: @utu
    @Satanax

    run to the hills - Too late. They even destroyed the Arecibo Observatory so we can't send SOS signals for help to friendly aliens.

    https://i.ibb.co/qYnLhjS/z26566355-IH-Radioteleskop-Arecibo.jpg

    Replies: @MEH 0910

  35. “ Having doctors go first is good propaganda. Most people trust their own personal doctor, so him saying, “I got my vaccination back on New Year’s Eve. My wife, who is also a doctor, and I are going out for dinner and dancing on Valentine’s Day because we are now virtually immune. So you’ll be getting vaccinated ASAP, right?”

    This is why arliss never called back on that spec script Steve. You write super clunky dialogue. I know that was kind of the point but…

  36. @Barack Obama's secret Unz account

    Having doctors go first is good propaganda. Most people trust their own personal doctor, so him saying, “I got my vaccination back on New Year’s Eve. My wife, who is also a doctor, and I are going out for dinner and dancing on Valentine’s Day because we are now virtually immune. So you’ll be getting vaccinated ASAP, right?”
     
    On the other hand, doctors know more about what can go wrong when a vaccine is rushed out in a few months. There's an article on this very website that quotes two separate doctors saying they're going to wait and see for a year in case there's any longer-term side effects.

    And anyway, aren't these vaccines just promising to mitigate the symptoms, not prevent infection? The doctor and his wife should still be staying home on Valentine's Day, right?

    Replies: @That Would Be Telling, @Thomas Defelstrock

    Doctors are all specialists and specialists tend to be very ignorant of anything out of their specific field. Being a doctor of internal medicine is mostly about knowing what the book says you are supposed to do. These are the same people who not too long ago were telling everyone to eat hydrogenated margarine on white bread as a healthy snack. Before that they were telling people to smoke cigarettes. Basically doctors are morons. Very few of them know enough statistics to understand the results of a vaccine trial.

    • Replies: @Barack Obama's secret Unz account
    @Thomas Defelstrock

    But they know enough medicine to know that there might be severe side-effects, right? And they know how survivable COVID is without a vaccine.

    Statistics be damned, if there's even a small chance I'm gonna grow an extra head or my dick's gonna fall off, I'm steering clear. The fact that I drew the short straw in the haystack will not be much comfort when I'm covered in sores and puking from my ears.

    , @Art Deco
    @Thomas Defelstrock

    Basically doctors are morons.

    Some of the people who comment here have no clue what they sound like.

    , @Alden
    @Thomas Defelstrock

    Wait till you get seriously sick or chopped up in a car or industrial accident and need to be repaired by a surgeon and his her team of expert assistants.

  37. @utu
    OT: How the narrative about Covid-19 pandemic will have to be changed to incorporate growing evidence that it was present in the West already in 2019?

    There are only two options. (1) The antibody tests in the old blood samples are inaccurate or purposefully manipulated or (2) The pandemic is nothing as it can silently spread for months without being noticed.

    How did Covid REALLY spread around the world? New damning test results that show antibodies were in US in December - WEEKS before China raised the alarm - add to growing global evidence of a cover-up
    https://www.dailymail.co.uk/news/article-9009297/How-did-Covid-REALLY-spread-world-Coronavirus-blood-samples-December.html

    September 3, 2019 – Veneto, Italy: A study carried out in Italy, by the National Cancer Institute in Milan, found coronavirus antibodies in 111 people out of 959 blood samples taken before March 2020. The first sample that tested positive was dated September 3 and collected in the Veneto region of the country. Italy announced its first official case on February 20.

    September 4 and 5, 2019 – Emilia Romagna and Liguria, Italy: The National Cancer Institute study found antibodies in blood samples taken from the two regions, which are to the south-west of Veneto.

    September 9, 2019 – Lombardy, Italy: The first two antibody-positive samples from Lombardy, the Alpine region that contains Milan and was one of the worst hit places in the world during the first wave, date back to September 9. By the time all of September's samples had been analysed, 13 out of 23 that were antibody positive had been taken in Lombardy.

    September 11, 2019 – Lazio, Italy: The first antibody-positive specimen found from the Lazio region was dated September 11.

    November 2019 – Brazil: Analysis of past human sewage samples from the southern Brazilian region of Santa Catalina found traces of the SARS-Cov-2 coronavirus as early as November 27. In the city of Florianopolis, samples from between October 30 and March were analysed, will all samples from

    November 27 onwards testing positive. Brazil announced its first official case on February 26.

    November 2019 – China: Leaked government documents show cases of coronavirus were being recorded in Wuhan as early as November 17, the South China Morning Post reported in March. China announced its first official cases on December 31.

    December 2019 – United States: A CDC study published on November 30 2020 revealed that coronavirus antibodies had been found in blood samples taken from people in California, Oregon and Washington as early as December 17. Further testing found Covid-positive samples dating to mid-

    December and early January in Connecticut, Iowa, Massachusetts, Michigan, Rhode Island and Wisconsin. The US announced its first official case on January 21.

    December 2019 – France: A man who was coughing up blood in intensive care in Paris on December 27 2019 has since been found to have had coronavirus. Scientists discovered the airport worker by trawling back through patients hospitalised with flu-like symptoms in December. A retrospective coronavirus test done on blood samples taken while he was in hospital found he was infected with the virus at the time, according to a study published in the International Journal of Antimicrobial Agents. France announced its first official case on January 24.

    December 2019 – China: The first cases of 'pneumonia of unknown cause' are reported to the World Health Organization by Chinese officials. A total of 44 had been declared by January 3.

    January 2020 – Spain: A study by the University of Barcelona discovered traces of the coronavirus in sewage in the city in a sample from January 15. It has been regularly testing sewage during the pandemic to track the presence of the virus, and a look back at older samples found it weeks before Covid-19 was officially discovered in the city. An even older sample showed a 'low' concentration of the virus in March 2019, but this required further research to confirm, scientists said. Spain announced its first official case on January 31.

    January 2020 – United Kingdom: A man who died on January 30 after falling ill in December later had his death attributed to Covid-19 by a coroner after traces of coronavirus were found in his lungs. Peter Attwood, 84, had developed symptoms of coronavirus on December 28 and later died in hospital, his daughter said, and she also reported being ill with a similar condition in December. Mr Attwood's death happened a day before Britain's first cases of coronavirus were reported on January 31.

    Replies: @The Last Real Calvinist, @Satanax, @Old Prude, @Old Prude, @Travis

    Thanks for compiling this.

    Widespread cases showing up in 2019 all over the place doesn’t refute the China-as-original-source hypothesis, but it certainly makes the whole thing more complicated.

    The cases from Italy are especially striking. The virus could still have come over from Wuhan via the textile workers route that became accepted as the conventional wisdom, but really, who knows?

    • Replies: @utu
    @The Last Real Calvinist

    The anti-body test used on Italian blood samples was developed by the group that published the data showing existence of covid in Italy already in Sep. 2019. The test was not validated against other tests some skeptics who dismissed the study said.

    China very much welcomes the results. They want to lift the blame from Wuhan and China. Can I consider a possibility that the results were somehow planted on behalf of China?

    Existence of 20-30 covid infected people in Italy in September and October as the study claims would imply that by March all 60 million of Italians would be infected.

    , @Steve Sailer
    @The Last Real Calvinist

    Northern Italy is a business and tourism hotspot for the whole world.

    Replies: @Gordo

  38. “Health care workers probably average, what, in their early to mid-40s in age, and tend to be skinnier and healthier than the public average.”

    Go spend about an hour in a high traffic waiting area of a hospital and observe the female fatties with employee badges walking by.

    • Agree: RadicalCenter
  39. Let’s look down the road a ways.

    If the forthcoming mass coronavirus immunization campaign is not a total debacle, a bunch of people will all coalesce around the bright idea that governments should generously fund the rushed development and administration of many new vaccines for more diseases. There will be a lot of noise about developing a new, more generic influenza vaccine. All the pharma companies’ executives and staffs, all the people hired into coronavirus-immunization logistics who don’t want to give up their exciting and well-paid new jobs, all the politicians seeking both a positive-publicity talking-point and a new source of graft will agree that a large expansion of government spending is desirable.

    However, all those hungry chicks keening for food will demand the truncation of testing requirements for all the new vaccines, so even if the coronavirus vaccines don’t do too much collateral harm, there will be plenty of opportunities for poorly-tested follow-on jabs to injure people.

  40. @The Last Real Calvinist
    @utu

    Thanks for compiling this.

    Widespread cases showing up in 2019 all over the place doesn't refute the China-as-original-source hypothesis, but it certainly makes the whole thing more complicated.

    The cases from Italy are especially striking. The virus could still have come over from Wuhan via the textile workers route that became accepted as the conventional wisdom, but really, who knows?

    Replies: @utu, @Steve Sailer

    The anti-body test used on Italian blood samples was developed by the group that published the data showing existence of covid in Italy already in Sep. 2019. The test was not validated against other tests some skeptics who dismissed the study said.

    China very much welcomes the results. They want to lift the blame from Wuhan and China. Can I consider a possibility that the results were somehow planted on behalf of China?

    Existence of 20-30 covid infected people in Italy in September and October as the study claims would imply that by March all 60 million of Italians would be infected.

  41. What if the first 20 million doses become available, and then there are exactly 20 million who are willing to be in the first group to try it. We should just let the eager ones take the early doses.

    It is possible that all this talk of rationing is completely stupid, and the problem would take care of itself. It is probably not necessary for anyone to ration the vaccine.

    • Replies: @U. Ranus
    @Roger


    It is possible that all this talk of rationing is completely stupid
     
    It's good marketing because rationing implies scarcity, and scarcity implies desirability. Have a look around, scarcity signals are widely used in marketing.
    , @Jack D
    @Roger

    I suspect that is what is really going to happen - we are going to go from shortage to surplus in very short order because a lot of the high priority recipients, especially recipients "of color" are not going to want the vaccine. Uptake is going to be highest among doctors, then somewhat less among nurses and then much less among the heavily minority orderlies, etc. who actually make up the bulk of "healthcare workers". Probably there will be a point where doses are just sitting in the freezer or even going to waste and then they will give up and open the vaccine to the next level of priority.

    As you can see from the comments here (and the commenters here are intellectual giants compared to the average BIPOC), (i) the average level of scientific understanding is very low and (ii) trust between the masses and the elites (including the medical establishment) in our society has been utterly destroyed. People no longer believe "authorities" or "mainstream medicine" (and not entirely without reason - mainstream medicine brought us Oxycontin and other such plagues and their dietary advice has often been wrong or cursory at best). Blacks especially assume that the government wants to do Tuskegee Experiments on them. As Steve says, we are reverting to African patterns where witchdoctors and spells are more important than Western medicine. And it's not just blacks - I just saw a commercial where Rite Aid was claiming that all of its pharmacists would now be trained in holistic and natural methods so that if you went in to their pharmacy they might suggest some herbs or something that you could take instead of a pill.

    There are a large # of people for whom endorsement of the vaccine by authorities makes it LESS likely that they will take it. Maybe the best strategy is to tell people they CAN'T have the vaccine and then they will want to buy it on the black market from their local drug dealer. It works for opioids.

    Replies: @Art Deco

    , @Adam Smith
    @Roger

    Like U. Ranus said, perceived scarcity creates demand. People want what the can't have.

    https://www.nytimes.com/2004/10/17/health/with-few-suppliers-of-flu-shots-shortage-was-long-in-making.html

  42. @The Last Real Calvinist
    @utu

    Thanks for compiling this.

    Widespread cases showing up in 2019 all over the place doesn't refute the China-as-original-source hypothesis, but it certainly makes the whole thing more complicated.

    The cases from Italy are especially striking. The virus could still have come over from Wuhan via the textile workers route that became accepted as the conventional wisdom, but really, who knows?

    Replies: @utu, @Steve Sailer

    Northern Italy is a business and tourism hotspot for the whole world.

    • Replies: @Gordo
    @Steve Sailer

    It came as a surprise when I learned that there were direct flights from Wuhan to Northern Italy, lots of them, and 100s of 1000s of Chinese working in North Italian textile factories.

    That the Chinese continued direct flights to Italy from Wuhan when they had closed off Wuhan from the rest of China I think calls for a response from us. Won’t happen of course; racist.

  43. @utu
    OT: How the narrative about Covid-19 pandemic will have to be changed to incorporate growing evidence that it was present in the West already in 2019?

    There are only two options. (1) The antibody tests in the old blood samples are inaccurate or purposefully manipulated or (2) The pandemic is nothing as it can silently spread for months without being noticed.

    How did Covid REALLY spread around the world? New damning test results that show antibodies were in US in December - WEEKS before China raised the alarm - add to growing global evidence of a cover-up
    https://www.dailymail.co.uk/news/article-9009297/How-did-Covid-REALLY-spread-world-Coronavirus-blood-samples-December.html

    September 3, 2019 – Veneto, Italy: A study carried out in Italy, by the National Cancer Institute in Milan, found coronavirus antibodies in 111 people out of 959 blood samples taken before March 2020. The first sample that tested positive was dated September 3 and collected in the Veneto region of the country. Italy announced its first official case on February 20.

    September 4 and 5, 2019 – Emilia Romagna and Liguria, Italy: The National Cancer Institute study found antibodies in blood samples taken from the two regions, which are to the south-west of Veneto.

    September 9, 2019 – Lombardy, Italy: The first two antibody-positive samples from Lombardy, the Alpine region that contains Milan and was one of the worst hit places in the world during the first wave, date back to September 9. By the time all of September's samples had been analysed, 13 out of 23 that were antibody positive had been taken in Lombardy.

    September 11, 2019 – Lazio, Italy: The first antibody-positive specimen found from the Lazio region was dated September 11.

    November 2019 – Brazil: Analysis of past human sewage samples from the southern Brazilian region of Santa Catalina found traces of the SARS-Cov-2 coronavirus as early as November 27. In the city of Florianopolis, samples from between October 30 and March were analysed, will all samples from

    November 27 onwards testing positive. Brazil announced its first official case on February 26.

    November 2019 – China: Leaked government documents show cases of coronavirus were being recorded in Wuhan as early as November 17, the South China Morning Post reported in March. China announced its first official cases on December 31.

    December 2019 – United States: A CDC study published on November 30 2020 revealed that coronavirus antibodies had been found in blood samples taken from people in California, Oregon and Washington as early as December 17. Further testing found Covid-positive samples dating to mid-

    December and early January in Connecticut, Iowa, Massachusetts, Michigan, Rhode Island and Wisconsin. The US announced its first official case on January 21.

    December 2019 – France: A man who was coughing up blood in intensive care in Paris on December 27 2019 has since been found to have had coronavirus. Scientists discovered the airport worker by trawling back through patients hospitalised with flu-like symptoms in December. A retrospective coronavirus test done on blood samples taken while he was in hospital found he was infected with the virus at the time, according to a study published in the International Journal of Antimicrobial Agents. France announced its first official case on January 24.

    December 2019 – China: The first cases of 'pneumonia of unknown cause' are reported to the World Health Organization by Chinese officials. A total of 44 had been declared by January 3.

    January 2020 – Spain: A study by the University of Barcelona discovered traces of the coronavirus in sewage in the city in a sample from January 15. It has been regularly testing sewage during the pandemic to track the presence of the virus, and a look back at older samples found it weeks before Covid-19 was officially discovered in the city. An even older sample showed a 'low' concentration of the virus in March 2019, but this required further research to confirm, scientists said. Spain announced its first official case on January 31.

    January 2020 – United Kingdom: A man who died on January 30 after falling ill in December later had his death attributed to Covid-19 by a coroner after traces of coronavirus were found in his lungs. Peter Attwood, 84, had developed symptoms of coronavirus on December 28 and later died in hospital, his daughter said, and she also reported being ill with a similar condition in December. Mr Attwood's death happened a day before Britain's first cases of coronavirus were reported on January 31.

    Replies: @The Last Real Calvinist, @Satanax, @Old Prude, @Old Prude, @Travis

    That’s it. They won. Proof of their total victory is here in these endless, senseless and fruitless debates: you are chasing your own tails. They want you to debate among yourselves to the end of time because it is an effective weapon of mass distraction while they are implementing the Great Reset. There is no virus. Covid19 is a global psy-op, not a disease. One hint among numerous others: in the very beginning, even Fauci said this was no worse than the seasonal flu. The evidences are everywhere of this being a massive and very effective global fear campaign. Just open your eyes and look! It’s amazing that for some Covid has become a religion, even among the so-called intellectuals. All governments are in it together, acting out the same script forced on them by the globalists. The slaves are all being played.

    • Replies: @The Wild Geese Howard
    @Satanax

    CNN reporting on national vax card proposed by DoD, FDA meeting to discuss on Dec 10 and 17:


    'Immunity Cards' To Be Issued To All Americans; Enable CDC To Track COVID-19 Vaxx Status In Database


    https://www.zerohedge.com/medical/covid-19-vax-status-be-tracked-cdc-database-everyone-issued-vaccination-cards-according-dod

    It's over.

    We are on the path to THX-1138.

    Replies: @That Would Be Telling

  44. Wow, America has 21 million health care workers. Health care is a huge fraction of the national GDP, so I guess that makes sense, but, still, wow. I’m wondering how many of them, however, are back room data clerks and the like who have zero need to interact with patients?

    I used to do what they call “Travel Demand Modeling” for a transportation agency in a metro area in the Northeast. One category of data I was always looking for, was the number of employees at a workplace, I used this type of data to predict travel demand, patterns, etc., using gravity/equilibrium models.

    Workplace data was always the hardest to find compared to, say, residential data, but one time I managed to get ahold of a database that listed every nursing home, LTC Care facility etc. in the US along with the number of beds and number of employees. I was surprised that these facilities generally had about one employee per bed, and that, furthermore, around 50% of these employees were “administrative”, basically the “back room data clerks and the like” you mention.

  45. @Je Suis Omar Mateen
    @Travis

    "30% of the healthcare workers have already recovered from CV and probably still have the antibodies. It seems wasteful to give the vaccine to the millions of Americans who have recovered from COVID already."

    My gf is a nurse and desperately wishes she could test positive for CoronaHoax and thus enjoy a paid two- to three-week vacation. She is around CH-positive people all day long and is frustrated she can't seem to contract this insidiously contagious PLAGUE. I don't have the heart to tell her she probably already had it and recovered because it's such a faggy cold. A fake vax 300 times less effective than her immune system is certainly wasted -- on her or anyone under the age of 50.

    Replies: @epebble

    She is around CH-positive people all day long and is frustrated she can’t seem to contract this

    She can ask one of the patients to remove the mask and breathe heavily or cough in her face. It is easy to catch if she is near other persons face and they are both unmasked.

  46. @prosa123
    So, the Case Fatality Rate for health care personnel has been about 0.4%. The Infection Fatality Rate would be lower, but probably not all that much lower because health care personnel get tested a lot. Health care workers probably average, what, in their early to mid-40s in age, and tend to be skinnier and healthier than the public average.

    These's also a high proportion of minorities among health care workers, and minorities have a higher death rate.

    Replies: @RadicalCenter

    It would be good to see evidence for Steve’s assertion that healthcare workers are thinner than average, as well as for your broad assertion that “minorities” — meaning presumably all non-whites — are especially prone to dying from this virus.

    Here in LA there are tons of substantially overweight Mexican and other Latino people working in medical and dental offices and hospitals. I have had multiple pudgy white dentists in other States too, men and women.

    I have read only anecdotal or conclusory generalizations that this is the case for africans, but have never heard it for asians, for example.

    In any event, do we know how many of the healthcare workers who died with covid-19 (not necessarily “from” covid-19) were morbidly obese or diabetic? Presumably quite a few. Those have been cited as major comorbidities heightening the risk of death among people who otherwise would be at very, very low risk of dying or being permanently harmed by this virus, i.e. people who neither elderly nor suffering from a preexisting respiratory condition or immune system impairment.

  47. @Roger
    What if the first 20 million doses become available, and then there are exactly 20 million who are willing to be in the first group to try it. We should just let the eager ones take the early doses.

    It is possible that all this talk of rationing is completely stupid, and the problem would take care of itself. It is probably not necessary for anyone to ration the vaccine.

    Replies: @U. Ranus, @Jack D, @Adam Smith

    It is possible that all this talk of rationing is completely stupid

    It’s good marketing because rationing implies scarcity, and scarcity implies desirability. Have a look around, scarcity signals are widely used in marketing.

    • Agree: Adam Smith
  48. @Satanax
    @Yojimbo/Zatoichi

    They know all this. So stop the futile debate and run to the hills if you want to save yourself. They have you where they want you: under their boots. The Gestapo is now armed with a syringe.

    Replies: @utu

    run to the hills – Too late. They even destroyed the Arecibo Observatory so we can’t send SOS signals for help to friendly aliens.

    • Replies: @MEH 0910
    @utu

    Footage of Arecibo Observatory collapse
    https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=ssHkMWcGat4


    Footage of the collapse of the Arecibo Observatory. Credit: Courtesy of the Arecibo Observatory, a U.S. National Science Foundation facility
     

    https://twitter.com/NSF/status/1334544808464031744
  49. @That Would Be Telling
    @Yojimbo/Zatoichi


    it is now about to be available to the general public within a short time
     
    Bzzzt! You're either ignorant of what little a FDA Emergency Use Authorization (EUA) allows (granted, in this pandemic context, tens of millions of vaccinations), or are presuming the FDA will grant "approval" for general populations "within a short time," while ignoring for that process they're going to continue collecting Phase II, III, and "IV" data, the latter from those who are going to get vaccinated under the EUA.

    More than a little of your post posits malice on the part of those involved in all this, and you're totally ignoring the risk/reward calculation that's behind every decision to license a medication. How many people are you willing to sacrifice to COVID-19, morbidity as well as mortality, to calm your fears? Exactly how many months or years of Phase II and Phase III data would satisfy you?

    Replies: @RadicalCenter

    The FDA Emergency Use Authorization has little effect, you say, because it merely authorizes the hasty manufacture and administration of tens of millions of doses of liability-free vaccines.

    Nothing to add.

  50. Health care workers probably average, what, in their early to mid-40s in age, and tend to be skinnier and healthier than the public average.

    Have you seen nurses and health aides recently? They tend to be rather large. From a 2014 study of 2010 data:

    …healthcare professionals had a higher-than-average obesity rate of nearly 35 percent, even when controlling for factors like age, race, gender and smoking habits. Only bureaucrats and protective service workers, such as law enforcement and security guards, had higher rates.

    (https://www.fiercehealthcare.com/healthcare/healthcare-workers-tip-obesity-scale)

    Also, while the government’s plan is nice and all, i’m not sure all those unionized essential workers in Phase 1b will just rush out and get the vaccines with no complaints.

    Especially the teachers. We all know they’re just chomping at the bit to get back in the classroom and totally won’t run out the clock on the 2020-2021 school year.

    And even in 1a… are nurses unions going to play ball?

    Michelle Mahon is a registered nurse representing National Nurses United. It’s a union with more than 150,000 members across the country. She says the way the pandemic has played out has not been reassuring to health care workers who feel exhausted and under protected.

    MICHELLE MAHON: This is the same population that was told earlier this year that they should just go battle COVID-19 wearing a bandana or a scarf.

    HUANG: Mahon says they want to see clear data on safety and efficacy before they sign on to get a brand-new vaccine. That’s what Dr. Thompson wants, too. She reads The New England Journal of Medicine and follows vaccine news closely. And she says a lot of facts just aren’t available yet.

    THOMPSON: I would still need convincing – legitimately still need convincing. Yeah.

    https://www.npr.org/2020/11/24/938326595/some-health-care-workers-are-wary-of-getting-covid-19-vaccines

    (there’s a couple of skeptical doctors in that brief article as well)

  51. @utu
    OT: How the narrative about Covid-19 pandemic will have to be changed to incorporate growing evidence that it was present in the West already in 2019?

    There are only two options. (1) The antibody tests in the old blood samples are inaccurate or purposefully manipulated or (2) The pandemic is nothing as it can silently spread for months without being noticed.

    How did Covid REALLY spread around the world? New damning test results that show antibodies were in US in December - WEEKS before China raised the alarm - add to growing global evidence of a cover-up
    https://www.dailymail.co.uk/news/article-9009297/How-did-Covid-REALLY-spread-world-Coronavirus-blood-samples-December.html

    September 3, 2019 – Veneto, Italy: A study carried out in Italy, by the National Cancer Institute in Milan, found coronavirus antibodies in 111 people out of 959 blood samples taken before March 2020. The first sample that tested positive was dated September 3 and collected in the Veneto region of the country. Italy announced its first official case on February 20.

    September 4 and 5, 2019 – Emilia Romagna and Liguria, Italy: The National Cancer Institute study found antibodies in blood samples taken from the two regions, which are to the south-west of Veneto.

    September 9, 2019 – Lombardy, Italy: The first two antibody-positive samples from Lombardy, the Alpine region that contains Milan and was one of the worst hit places in the world during the first wave, date back to September 9. By the time all of September's samples had been analysed, 13 out of 23 that were antibody positive had been taken in Lombardy.

    September 11, 2019 – Lazio, Italy: The first antibody-positive specimen found from the Lazio region was dated September 11.

    November 2019 – Brazil: Analysis of past human sewage samples from the southern Brazilian region of Santa Catalina found traces of the SARS-Cov-2 coronavirus as early as November 27. In the city of Florianopolis, samples from between October 30 and March were analysed, will all samples from

    November 27 onwards testing positive. Brazil announced its first official case on February 26.

    November 2019 – China: Leaked government documents show cases of coronavirus were being recorded in Wuhan as early as November 17, the South China Morning Post reported in March. China announced its first official cases on December 31.

    December 2019 – United States: A CDC study published on November 30 2020 revealed that coronavirus antibodies had been found in blood samples taken from people in California, Oregon and Washington as early as December 17. Further testing found Covid-positive samples dating to mid-

    December and early January in Connecticut, Iowa, Massachusetts, Michigan, Rhode Island and Wisconsin. The US announced its first official case on January 21.

    December 2019 – France: A man who was coughing up blood in intensive care in Paris on December 27 2019 has since been found to have had coronavirus. Scientists discovered the airport worker by trawling back through patients hospitalised with flu-like symptoms in December. A retrospective coronavirus test done on blood samples taken while he was in hospital found he was infected with the virus at the time, according to a study published in the International Journal of Antimicrobial Agents. France announced its first official case on January 24.

    December 2019 – China: The first cases of 'pneumonia of unknown cause' are reported to the World Health Organization by Chinese officials. A total of 44 had been declared by January 3.

    January 2020 – Spain: A study by the University of Barcelona discovered traces of the coronavirus in sewage in the city in a sample from January 15. It has been regularly testing sewage during the pandemic to track the presence of the virus, and a look back at older samples found it weeks before Covid-19 was officially discovered in the city. An even older sample showed a 'low' concentration of the virus in March 2019, but this required further research to confirm, scientists said. Spain announced its first official case on January 31.

    January 2020 – United Kingdom: A man who died on January 30 after falling ill in December later had his death attributed to Covid-19 by a coroner after traces of coronavirus were found in his lungs. Peter Attwood, 84, had developed symptoms of coronavirus on December 28 and later died in hospital, his daughter said, and she also reported being ill with a similar condition in December. Mr Attwood's death happened a day before Britain's first cases of coronavirus were reported on January 31.

    Replies: @The Last Real Calvinist, @Satanax, @Old Prude, @Old Prude, @Travis

    I know six people who probably had Covid by February 2020. One was just returned to Maine from a trip to Orlando, then gifted it to her live-in. Both missed work for a few days then got on with their lives…until the hysteria started. You know the rest.

  52. @utu
    OT: How the narrative about Covid-19 pandemic will have to be changed to incorporate growing evidence that it was present in the West already in 2019?

    There are only two options. (1) The antibody tests in the old blood samples are inaccurate or purposefully manipulated or (2) The pandemic is nothing as it can silently spread for months without being noticed.

    How did Covid REALLY spread around the world? New damning test results that show antibodies were in US in December - WEEKS before China raised the alarm - add to growing global evidence of a cover-up
    https://www.dailymail.co.uk/news/article-9009297/How-did-Covid-REALLY-spread-world-Coronavirus-blood-samples-December.html

    September 3, 2019 – Veneto, Italy: A study carried out in Italy, by the National Cancer Institute in Milan, found coronavirus antibodies in 111 people out of 959 blood samples taken before March 2020. The first sample that tested positive was dated September 3 and collected in the Veneto region of the country. Italy announced its first official case on February 20.

    September 4 and 5, 2019 – Emilia Romagna and Liguria, Italy: The National Cancer Institute study found antibodies in blood samples taken from the two regions, which are to the south-west of Veneto.

    September 9, 2019 – Lombardy, Italy: The first two antibody-positive samples from Lombardy, the Alpine region that contains Milan and was one of the worst hit places in the world during the first wave, date back to September 9. By the time all of September's samples had been analysed, 13 out of 23 that were antibody positive had been taken in Lombardy.

    September 11, 2019 – Lazio, Italy: The first antibody-positive specimen found from the Lazio region was dated September 11.

    November 2019 – Brazil: Analysis of past human sewage samples from the southern Brazilian region of Santa Catalina found traces of the SARS-Cov-2 coronavirus as early as November 27. In the city of Florianopolis, samples from between October 30 and March were analysed, will all samples from

    November 27 onwards testing positive. Brazil announced its first official case on February 26.

    November 2019 – China: Leaked government documents show cases of coronavirus were being recorded in Wuhan as early as November 17, the South China Morning Post reported in March. China announced its first official cases on December 31.

    December 2019 – United States: A CDC study published on November 30 2020 revealed that coronavirus antibodies had been found in blood samples taken from people in California, Oregon and Washington as early as December 17. Further testing found Covid-positive samples dating to mid-

    December and early January in Connecticut, Iowa, Massachusetts, Michigan, Rhode Island and Wisconsin. The US announced its first official case on January 21.

    December 2019 – France: A man who was coughing up blood in intensive care in Paris on December 27 2019 has since been found to have had coronavirus. Scientists discovered the airport worker by trawling back through patients hospitalised with flu-like symptoms in December. A retrospective coronavirus test done on blood samples taken while he was in hospital found he was infected with the virus at the time, according to a study published in the International Journal of Antimicrobial Agents. France announced its first official case on January 24.

    December 2019 – China: The first cases of 'pneumonia of unknown cause' are reported to the World Health Organization by Chinese officials. A total of 44 had been declared by January 3.

    January 2020 – Spain: A study by the University of Barcelona discovered traces of the coronavirus in sewage in the city in a sample from January 15. It has been regularly testing sewage during the pandemic to track the presence of the virus, and a look back at older samples found it weeks before Covid-19 was officially discovered in the city. An even older sample showed a 'low' concentration of the virus in March 2019, but this required further research to confirm, scientists said. Spain announced its first official case on January 31.

    January 2020 – United Kingdom: A man who died on January 30 after falling ill in December later had his death attributed to Covid-19 by a coroner after traces of coronavirus were found in his lungs. Peter Attwood, 84, had developed symptoms of coronavirus on December 28 and later died in hospital, his daughter said, and she also reported being ill with a similar condition in December. Mr Attwood's death happened a day before Britain's first cases of coronavirus were reported on January 31.

    Replies: @The Last Real Calvinist, @Satanax, @Old Prude, @Old Prude, @Travis

    I know six people who probably had Covid by February 2020. One was just returned to Maine from a trip to Orlando, then gifted it to her live-in. Both missed work for a few days then got on with their lives…until the hysteria started. You know the rest.

  53. https://www.mdpi.com/1660-4601/17/22/8674/htm

    We performed a retrospective analysis spanning ten years of pediatric practice focused on patients with variable vaccination born into a practice, presenting a unique opportunity to study the effects of variable vaccination on outcomes.
    […]
    Our results give agency to calls for research conducted by individuals who are independent of any funding sources related to the vaccine industry. While the low rates of developmental disorders prevented sufficiently powered hypothesis testing, it is notable that the overall rate of autism spectrum disorder (0.84%) in the cohort is half that of the US national rate (1.69%). The practice-wide rate of ADHD was roughly half of the national rate. The data indicate that unvaccinated children in the practice are not unhealthier than the vaccinated and indeed the overall results may indicate that the unvaccinated pediatric patients in this practice are healthier overall than the vaccinated.

  54. @That Would Be Telling
    @Barack Obama's secret Unz account


    And anyway, aren’t these vaccines just promising to mitigate the symptoms, not prevent infection?
     
    Mitigate the symptoms to "asymptotic," and a rigorous definition of that to the extent the participants follow their instructions. I think what you're trying to get at is data, proof for some value of proof, that's just not available at this time, so we're working on a reasonable assumption these vaccines also prevent transmission.

    Replies: @Barack Obama's secret Unz account

    I think what you’re trying to get at is data, proof for some value of proof, that’s just not available at this time, so we’re working on a reasonable assumption these vaccines also prevent transmission.

    I’m just a humble ex-president, so maybe I don’t understand – I thought the vaccine testing protocol or whatever relied on people getting the virus? i.e., they were making announcements of progress at 32 positive cases, 64, etc.

    • Replies: @That Would Be Telling
    @Barack Obama's secret Unz account


    I thought the vaccine testing protocol or whatever relied on people getting the virus? i.e., they were making announcements of progress at 32 positive cases, 64, etc.
     
    Ah, but it matters very much who in their trial populations gets the virus. Lots in the control "arms" (saline solution placebos for the mRNA vaccines), very few in the vaccine arms, good sign the vaccine is effective in preventing symptomatic COVID-19, and for Moderna, serious COVID-19.

    But that's not proof that a bunch of people in the vaccine arms didn't get asymptomatic COVID-19 which they could then transmit to others. Based on what we know about "active" vaccines as I've taken to call these, vs. ones with protein or killed virus antigens, we have have a reasonable belief the vast majority of them won't be able to transmit it, but that's not something that can be proven with the Phase III test protocol data, either altogether, or this early in them (they run for two years).

    Compare to the "active," attenuated live virus Sabin oral polio vaccine. If it takes, your gut will never harbor a polio infection. The Salk injected killed virus vaccine does not prevent this, you can get an infection in your gut and pass it on to others, it just prevents such an infection from producing paralytic polio in escaping from your gut into your body.

    Replies: @Barack Obama's secret Unz account

  55. @Thomas Defelstrock
    @Barack Obama's secret Unz account

    Doctors are all specialists and specialists tend to be very ignorant of anything out of their specific field. Being a doctor of internal medicine is mostly about knowing what the book says you are supposed to do. These are the same people who not too long ago were telling everyone to eat hydrogenated margarine on white bread as a healthy snack. Before that they were telling people to smoke cigarettes. Basically doctors are morons. Very few of them know enough statistics to understand the results of a vaccine trial.

    Replies: @Barack Obama's secret Unz account, @Art Deco, @Alden

    But they know enough medicine to know that there might be severe side-effects, right? And they know how survivable COVID is without a vaccine.

    Statistics be damned, if there’s even a small chance I’m gonna grow an extra head or my dick’s gonna fall off, I’m steering clear. The fact that I drew the short straw in the haystack will not be much comfort when I’m covered in sores and puking from my ears.

  56. That tells you the teacher’s unions have pull.

    In re medical care and allied:

    1. There are just shy of 2.8 million treating professionals, of whom north of 600,000 could be put on the back burner. (These include psychiatrists, speech pathologists, pharmacists, dieticians &c).

    2. There are another 2.9 million technicians in this sector. Roughly 800,000 don’t have contact with patients as a rule.

    3. There are about 6.5 million working in ‘health care support’. Pretty much all are in contact with patients, though for some (like the clerical staff in medical offices) PPE might suffice.

  57. @Thomas Defelstrock
    @Barack Obama's secret Unz account

    Doctors are all specialists and specialists tend to be very ignorant of anything out of their specific field. Being a doctor of internal medicine is mostly about knowing what the book says you are supposed to do. These are the same people who not too long ago were telling everyone to eat hydrogenated margarine on white bread as a healthy snack. Before that they were telling people to smoke cigarettes. Basically doctors are morons. Very few of them know enough statistics to understand the results of a vaccine trial.

    Replies: @Barack Obama's secret Unz account, @Art Deco, @Alden

    Basically doctors are morons.

    Some of the people who comment here have no clue what they sound like.

    • Agree: Alden
  58. Doing health care workers first makes sense, although the number is inflated as you note, but not putting “essential” workers before the elderly and infirm. We didn’t shut down the economy and sacrifice our freedoms, through both top-down and bottom-up choices, because too many grocery store clerks were getting sick.

  59. @utu
    @Travis

    260,000 covid fatalities in the US at IFR=0.25% would imply 104 millions of infected. For the 'It is just a flu' people IFR would be lower, say, 0.1%. Then in the 'It is just a flu' people world 81% has already been infected which is above the herd immunity threshold. So how the 'It is just a flu' people explain that more people are still getting infected and dying? To explain it the 'It is just a flu' people must go to the real conspiracy stuff: fake death certificates, fake RT-PCR gets... The world of the 'It is just a flu' is safe and consoling, certainly one does not need vaccine in it, one does not need to fear of being infected.

    Replies: @Old Prude, @botazefa, @Travis

    The world of the ‘It is just a flu’ is safe and consoling, certainly one does not need vaccine in it, one does not need to fear of being infected

    .

    Utu, if the flu vaccine did not exist wouldn’t flu deaths be much higher than covid-19 deaths?

    I take the flu shot every year. That doesn’t mean I’ll be taking the covid vaccine. Why? Because the risk of me dying from the flu is higher than from coronavirus. I don’t understand how people don’t see the obvious.

  60. @Travis
    100 million Americans have already recovered from COVID...The model, created by scientists at the Centers for Disease Control and Prevention, calculated that the true number of infections is about eight times the reported number, which includes only the cases confirmed by a laboratory test.
    https://www.npr.org/sections/coronavirus-live-updates/2020/11/26/939365087/government-model-suggests-u-s-covid-19-cases-could-be-approaching-100-million

    30% of the healthcare workers have already recovered from CV and probably still have the antibodies. It seems wasteful to give the vaccine to the millions of Americans who have recovered from COVID already. Back in April 24% of New York healthcare workers had the antibodies for COVID. Must be higher 10 months after the pandemic began.

    Replies: @utu, @That Would Be Telling, @Je Suis Omar Mateen, @slumber_j

    Back in April 24% of New York healthcare workers had the antibodies for COVID.

    Yeah, and thanks to our wondrous Governor Cuomo, who has no daddy issues whatsoever and is very handsome and charismatic, most of the surviving nursing home residents are probably already inoculated too!

    • Replies: @Travis
    @slumber_j

    so true. The big question is how long immunity will last. Back in August antibody testing confirmed that 2 million New Yorkers had already recovered from COVID. They had tested random asymptomatic New Yorkers starting in April and had tested 1.7 million people by August. 27% of them had antibodies.

    will these 2 million New Yorkers still have immunity now ? The antibodies fade after 6 months, but T-cell immunity probably lasts more than 12 months.

    The prevalence of SARS-CoV-2 Antibodies in New Yorkers peaked back in the month of April, when over 50% of those tested randomly had the antibodies. By May the rate had fallen to 34% and by September the rate had fallen to 21%. https://www1.nyc.gov/site/doh/covid/covid-19-data-trends.page#antibody

    The best explanation on why the prevalence of SARS-CoV-2 Antibodies have fallen from 50% to 21% from April to September is because the antibodies do not last more than a few months for most people. Those testing positive in September were negative in May and those who were positive in May were negative for the antibodies in September.

  61. People are becoming unhinged over the vaccine. I just want a million to go first, out of an abundance of caution. There is something very reassuring about ‘one in a million’. The other stuff? I’m ok with any long term unknowable risks, since I used up my long term.

  62. From what I read there will be some pretty harsh side effects. So is vaccinating the healthcare professionals all at once a good idea?

    • Replies: @That Would Be Telling
    @Old and Grumpy


    From what I read there will be some pretty harsh side effects. So is vaccinating the healthcare professionals all at once a good idea?
     
    Define "harsh." Also, what fraction get these harsh side effects?

    There's a lot of bad reporting out there, as I was doing a Bing search just now, I for example found one NY Post account which confused the total number of participants in the Pfizer/BioNTech with the ones who got the vaccine, which is half of that number. In that search, this is the most specific I was able to find on something like severity as well as percentages from the AARP of all sources:

    In Moderna's phase 3 vaccine trials, about 10 percent of participants experienced fatigue, roughly 9 percent reported muscle aches and about 5 percent had joint pain and headaches. Pfizer's phase 3 interim analysis documented fatigue in 3.8 percent of participants and headaches in 2 percent. Injection site pain was noted in both trials.

    These reactions are “temporary,” and they “self-resolve” within a few days, says Wilbur Chen, M.D., a professor of medicine and chief of adult clinical studies at the Center for Vaccine Development and Global Health at the University of Maryland....
     
    That agrees with what I've generally read previously, and sounds like a pretty normal side effect profile.

    Logistic efficiency may win out over your concern that not too many health care professionals get the vaccine at the same time, if it's done by going to say a hospital and trying to vaccination everyone from a couple of shifts in the same visit. Or they might be more clever about this.
  63. @eric
    My health care provider only tests employees who show Covid-19 symptoms. This seemed odd because presumably they are being exposed frequently, and are also interacting with people who have lots of co-morbidities.

    Replies: @Travis

    my wife is a teacher, they get a free test whenever they want. Some of her co-workers get tested every 10 days because if they get tested positive they get 2 weeks of paid vacation.

    They were virtual until November 5th , then went virtual again on November 16th. The teachers are loving it. My wife can sleep until 9:00 and be ready for her first virtual class which begins at 10:00. This is one reason so many want the lock-downs to continue. Many people have much better lives now, as they do not need to commute to work, which is the worst part of working here in New Jersey. Most of the people I know are now working from home and most prefer it to going into the office.

  64. @slumber_j
    @Travis


    Back in April 24% of New York healthcare workers had the antibodies for COVID.
     
    Yeah, and thanks to our wondrous Governor Cuomo, who has no daddy issues whatsoever and is very handsome and charismatic, most of the surviving nursing home residents are probably already inoculated too!

    Replies: @Travis

    so true. The big question is how long immunity will last. Back in August antibody testing confirmed that 2 million New Yorkers had already recovered from COVID. They had tested random asymptomatic New Yorkers starting in April and had tested 1.7 million people by August. 27% of them had antibodies.

    will these 2 million New Yorkers still have immunity now ? The antibodies fade after 6 months, but T-cell immunity probably lasts more than 12 months.

    The prevalence of SARS-CoV-2 Antibodies in New Yorkers peaked back in the month of April, when over 50% of those tested randomly had the antibodies. By May the rate had fallen to 34% and by September the rate had fallen to 21%. https://www1.nyc.gov/site/doh/covid/covid-19-data-trends.page#antibody

    The best explanation on why the prevalence of SARS-CoV-2 Antibodies have fallen from 50% to 21% from April to September is because the antibodies do not last more than a few months for most people. Those testing positive in September were negative in May and those who were positive in May were negative for the antibodies in September.

  65. I’m puzzled that very top priority is not Long Term Care Facility Residents. They comprise over 40% of deaths (and this does not include the many thousands of deaths in NY which Cuomo refuses to count). And they only amount to ~3M individuals. Vaccinating them would take roughly only four or so days of supplies, if we have over 40M doses available per month.

    If they were the very first vaccinated, not only would deaths be cut dramatically and swiftly, but the burden on our hospitals would likely be reduced by a similar amount. Everybody would profit from that.

    Throwing them in with the much larger number of health care workers will delay this process over a much longer period of time. And if the main point of giving health care workers priority is so the system won’t collapse, it seems far more productive to remove the excess burden caused by those among LTCFR.

    • Replies: @Jack D
    @candid_observer

    While vaccinating LTCF residents would probably save the largest # of lives in the short run (ignoring quality of life years) it makes sense to give health care workers priority because LTCF residents are not by definition out in the community and infecting other people. Healthcare workers are no only infecting LTCF patients but bringing this stuff home and infecting their family and friends. Also, right now some healthcare systems are having trouble functioning because so many of their workers are infected.

    Hopefully, "healthcare workers" is defined as people who have front line contact with patients and doesn't include the ladies in the billing office.

    Replies: @candid_observer

    , @candid_observer
    @candid_observer

    Apropos of this issue, I wonder if just the first dose of the vaccine provides considerable immunity -- say, 50%? This would cut down on deaths noticeably and quickly. I doubt that there are particularly good numbers on this question, given the short window in which they might be captured in the testing (and perhaps they haven't even been monitored).

    But the actual efficacy before both doses might make a big dent in the progress of the disease.

    , @That Would Be Telling
    @candid_observer


    I’m puzzled that very top priority is not Long Term Care Facility Residents.
     
    It's got to come down to optics, which are of supreme importance in these vaccines receiving whatever limited acceptance they will get. Including TDS, you know the media will be pouncing on everything they possibly can, including what they make up from whole cloth, so "Trump is experimenting on the most frail elderly!!!" would both happen and be very bad. By not singling them out, by including Health Care Professionals (HCPs) at the same time, who are a much more representative cohort of Americans, that's avoided.

    We also don't know for whom the FDA will, if at all, approve administering these earliest vaccines to. Suppose Pfizer/BioNTech is not allowed for the very elderly, it's been said that unlike Moderna Pfizer didn't put a lot of effort into enrolling elderly test subjects.

    I also seriously wonder about your "delay this process over a much longer period of time" concern from the logistics side of things (note that's headed by an general who was in charge of the US military's logistics operatioe, the Army does it for all branches, for example as of the 1990s had a huge fleet of barges), that's more likely to come from production limitations, but there will be millions of doses immediately available from Moderna thanks to the Manhattan Project methods of Operation Warp Speed (OWS).

    Pfizer refused all up front OWS money, only got a guarantee of purchases if it finished its vaccine by the end of the year. But they have brewed up a lot in anticipation of approval (and/or maybe accepted pounds from the U.K., they've got 800,000 doses shipping right this very moment there). As of November 20th, when they submitted their application for a FDA Emergency Use Authorization (EUA), they said they had 20 million warehoused worldwide, expected 50 million by the end of the year.

    Also, if the FDA is slated to decide for them on the 10th, the second dose is done 21 days after the first, so.... Moderna's is 29 days after, and they've taken a lot of money from the US government (money has been up this year their most notable feature). As of their EUA application Monday, they said they'd have 20 million doses ready by the end of the year, all allocated for the US I assume. Note we also shouldn't begrudge Germany getting a lot of Pfizer/BioNTech doses, the latter company is based there and that country contributed a fair amount of money to it, maybe the EU as well.

    Replies: @candid_observer

  66. @utu
    @Travis

    260,000 covid fatalities in the US at IFR=0.25% would imply 104 millions of infected. For the 'It is just a flu' people IFR would be lower, say, 0.1%. Then in the 'It is just a flu' people world 81% has already been infected which is above the herd immunity threshold. So how the 'It is just a flu' people explain that more people are still getting infected and dying? To explain it the 'It is just a flu' people must go to the real conspiracy stuff: fake death certificates, fake RT-PCR gets... The world of the 'It is just a flu' is safe and consoling, certainly one does not need vaccine in it, one does not need to fear of being infected.

    Replies: @Old Prude, @botazefa, @Travis

    COVID is less fatal than the flu for those under the age of 40 and far worse than the flu for those over the age of 60. So half of the country has little to be concerned with. While the 20% of the population over the age of 60 has valid reasons to be concerned.

    The middle aged whites with children should be more concerned with the rising deaths of despair among those aged 20-40. while 6,000 of those under the age of 40 will die from COVID this year 65,000 will die from drugs or suicide this year. Shutting down the schools, sports, theaters, nightclubs will do lasting harm to young Americans, increasing levels of depression and anxiety. The shutdowns not only hurt their mental health it damages their economic prospects and social lives.

  67. @Elli
    @Bill

    I went to one medical practice that didn't take insurance. Three doctors, one secretary for appointments and bills . The doctors took vitals.

    Now I go to a medical practice that does take insurance. One doctor, one medical assistant who takes vitals, does EKGs and gives injections, one MA who takes dictation and enters medical notes during the exam, one appointments secretary, one medical coding clerk who codes the visits and enters them into the larger billing/hospital network system with which the doctor is affiliated. All of them are busy.

    Has there ever been a report on how much billing and insurance/Medicare/Medicaid compliance costs? I suspect at least 30% of the whole. It's an evolutionary arms race between providers and payers.

    Replies: @Seneca44, @Alden

    As one of the smaller guys who take insurance, I think your estimate is correct. One kind of shocking thing that you never see in the media is that administrative costs eat up 25% of inpatient costs which is quite literally billions of dollars. It is also interesting to see that the PPP money went out at about $8 billion to Medicare part B (doctors and outpatient providers) and $92 billion to part A (mostly hospitals but some nursing homes and rehab centers).

    Your metaphor of an arms race between providers and insurers is very apt and has been so for my entire career.

  68. @Steve Sailer
    @The Last Real Calvinist

    Northern Italy is a business and tourism hotspot for the whole world.

    Replies: @Gordo

    It came as a surprise when I learned that there were direct flights from Wuhan to Northern Italy, lots of them, and 100s of 1000s of Chinese working in North Italian textile factories.

    That the Chinese continued direct flights to Italy from Wuhan when they had closed off Wuhan from the rest of China I think calls for a response from us. Won’t happen of course; racist.

  69. Vaccine makers need to take into account genetic diversity explicitly in clinical trials or risk missing coverage for some individuals, says MIT scientists.

    Huh what, MIT says genetic diversity is real? Of course Whites are still the bad guys in creating the new covid-19 vaccines.

    https://www.zdnet.com/article/mit-machine-learning-models-find-gaps-in-coverage-by-moderna-pfizer-other-warp-speed-covid-19-vaccines/

  70. @Hernan Pizzaro del Blanco
    @That Would Be Telling

    Probably a million health care workers have already tested positive for Coronavirus or for the antibodies. My aunt is a nurse and did the antibody test in August , must be a significant number of workers who have tested positive over the last 6 months. Would these people still want to get vaccinated after they recovered from COVID ?

    Red Cross is testing for antibodies for free when you donate blood. Or the healthcare workers could probably get their insurance to pay for it.

    New York tested 2 million New Yorkers for antibodies from April to July so 1 in 4 New Yorkers were tested by July for the antibodies and over 20% had the antibodies in every week they tested , after peaking at 30% in April it fell to 20% by July. In Corona Queens 60% of those tested had the antibodies.

    Replies: @Jack D

    Would these people still want to get vaccinated after they recovered from COVID ?

    Probably yes. No one knows how long your natural immunity to Covid lasts. At worst * the vaccination would act as a booster shot or do nothing. If the vaccine caused side effects to people who already had the disease this would have showed up already in the trial because some (according to the geniuses here, most) of the trial participants would have already, knowingly or unknowingly, had covid.

    Since the vaccine will be in short supply at first, it probably makes sense not to give it to people who have had known cases of Covid since they (probably) have immunity already but I don’t think that is accounted for in the official priority list. Such persons might want to voluntarily abstain so that others can get this shot at first and then get the vaccination once it becomes freely available.

    *at worst it turns you into a sterile, cancerous mind controlled zombie, but I am talking about the real world odds and not the science fiction fantasies that some are spouting here.

    • Replies: @aleksander
    @Jack D

    Oh, right. "Science fiction fantasies" like Vioxx, which killed about 250,000-500,000 people. That's DOUBLE the fatalities of coronavirus, by the way. In fact, Vioxx killed so many people it changed the U.S. death rate.

    more-->https://www.theweek.co.uk/us/46535/when-half-million-americans-died-and-nobody-noticed


    YOU ARE OFFICIALLY A MORON.

    Replies: @Kaz, @Adam Smith

  71. @prosa123
    For a disease that's supposedly a guaranteed death sentence, there's an 86% survival rate among the oldest, frailest population.

    Replies: @BenKenobi

    Yep, it’s another Holo-cough.

    I got my vaccination back on New Year’s Eve. My wife, who is also a doctor, and I are going out for dinner and dancing on Valentine’s Day because we are now virtually immune. So you’ll be getting vaccinated ASAP, right?

    Once you receive The Mark, you can go back to consooming. You want to consoom, don’t you?

  72. @candid_observer
    I'm puzzled that very top priority is not Long Term Care Facility Residents. They comprise over 40% of deaths (and this does not include the many thousands of deaths in NY which Cuomo refuses to count). And they only amount to ~3M individuals. Vaccinating them would take roughly only four or so days of supplies, if we have over 40M doses available per month.

    If they were the very first vaccinated, not only would deaths be cut dramatically and swiftly, but the burden on our hospitals would likely be reduced by a similar amount. Everybody would profit from that.

    Throwing them in with the much larger number of health care workers will delay this process over a much longer period of time. And if the main point of giving health care workers priority is so the system won't collapse, it seems far more productive to remove the excess burden caused by those among LTCFR.

    Replies: @Jack D, @candid_observer, @That Would Be Telling

    While vaccinating LTCF residents would probably save the largest # of lives in the short run (ignoring quality of life years) it makes sense to give health care workers priority because LTCF residents are not by definition out in the community and infecting other people. Healthcare workers are no only infecting LTCF patients but bringing this stuff home and infecting their family and friends. Also, right now some healthcare systems are having trouble functioning because so many of their workers are infected.

    Hopefully, “healthcare workers” is defined as people who have front line contact with patients and doesn’t include the ladies in the billing office.

    • Replies: @candid_observer
    @Jack D

    But when nursing home residents get seriously ill, they are moved to a hospital setting, taking up scarce resources. Insofar as we should be concerned about hospitals being overwhelmed, this is an issue for all of us, including, obviously, health care workers.

  73. @candid_observer
    I'm puzzled that very top priority is not Long Term Care Facility Residents. They comprise over 40% of deaths (and this does not include the many thousands of deaths in NY which Cuomo refuses to count). And they only amount to ~3M individuals. Vaccinating them would take roughly only four or so days of supplies, if we have over 40M doses available per month.

    If they were the very first vaccinated, not only would deaths be cut dramatically and swiftly, but the burden on our hospitals would likely be reduced by a similar amount. Everybody would profit from that.

    Throwing them in with the much larger number of health care workers will delay this process over a much longer period of time. And if the main point of giving health care workers priority is so the system won't collapse, it seems far more productive to remove the excess burden caused by those among LTCFR.

    Replies: @Jack D, @candid_observer, @That Would Be Telling

    Apropos of this issue, I wonder if just the first dose of the vaccine provides considerable immunity — say, 50%? This would cut down on deaths noticeably and quickly. I doubt that there are particularly good numbers on this question, given the short window in which they might be captured in the testing (and perhaps they haven’t even been monitored).

    But the actual efficacy before both doses might make a big dent in the progress of the disease.

  74. @candid_observer
    I'm puzzled that very top priority is not Long Term Care Facility Residents. They comprise over 40% of deaths (and this does not include the many thousands of deaths in NY which Cuomo refuses to count). And they only amount to ~3M individuals. Vaccinating them would take roughly only four or so days of supplies, if we have over 40M doses available per month.

    If they were the very first vaccinated, not only would deaths be cut dramatically and swiftly, but the burden on our hospitals would likely be reduced by a similar amount. Everybody would profit from that.

    Throwing them in with the much larger number of health care workers will delay this process over a much longer period of time. And if the main point of giving health care workers priority is so the system won't collapse, it seems far more productive to remove the excess burden caused by those among LTCFR.

    Replies: @Jack D, @candid_observer, @That Would Be Telling

    I’m puzzled that very top priority is not Long Term Care Facility Residents.

    It’s got to come down to optics, which are of supreme importance in these vaccines receiving whatever limited acceptance they will get. Including TDS, you know the media will be pouncing on everything they possibly can, including what they make up from whole cloth, so “Trump is experimenting on the most frail elderly!!!” would both happen and be very bad. By not singling them out, by including Health Care Professionals (HCPs) at the same time, who are a much more representative cohort of Americans, that’s avoided.

    We also don’t know for whom the FDA will, if at all, approve administering these earliest vaccines to. Suppose Pfizer/BioNTech is not allowed for the very elderly, it’s been said that unlike Moderna Pfizer didn’t put a lot of effort into enrolling elderly test subjects.

    I also seriously wonder about your “delay this process over a much longer period of time” concern from the logistics side of things (note that’s headed by an general who was in charge of the US military’s logistics operatioe, the Army does it for all branches, for example as of the 1990s had a huge fleet of barges), that’s more likely to come from production limitations, but there will be millions of doses immediately available from Moderna thanks to the Manhattan Project methods of Operation Warp Speed (OWS).

    Pfizer refused all up front OWS money, only got a guarantee of purchases if it finished its vaccine by the end of the year. But they have brewed up a lot in anticipation of approval (and/or maybe accepted pounds from the U.K., they’ve got 800,000 doses shipping right this very moment there). As of November 20th, when they submitted their application for a FDA Emergency Use Authorization (EUA), they said they had 20 million warehoused worldwide, expected 50 million by the end of the year.

    Also, if the FDA is slated to decide for them on the 10th, the second dose is done 21 days after the first, so…. Moderna’s is 29 days after, and they’ve taken a lot of money from the US government (money has been up this year their most notable feature). As of their EUA application Monday, they said they’d have 20 million doses ready by the end of the year, all allocated for the US I assume. Note we also shouldn’t begrudge Germany getting a lot of Pfizer/BioNTech doses, the latter company is based there and that country contributed a fair amount of money to it, maybe the EU as well.

    • Replies: @candid_observer
    @That Would Be Telling

    Well, one way to deal with the optics issue you raise is to give the vaccination first to the workers who care for the LTCFR. I gather that there are on average about 2 residents to 1 caregiver.

    This is one of the very few cases I can think of where there's a clear chokepoint in which vaccinating the transmitters of the disease before those vulnerable seems to make sense. And of course it all depends on how much transmission is actually reduced by vaccination -- which we don't yet know for sure.

    Replies: @That Would Be Telling, @Jack D

  75. @Jack D
    @candid_observer

    While vaccinating LTCF residents would probably save the largest # of lives in the short run (ignoring quality of life years) it makes sense to give health care workers priority because LTCF residents are not by definition out in the community and infecting other people. Healthcare workers are no only infecting LTCF patients but bringing this stuff home and infecting their family and friends. Also, right now some healthcare systems are having trouble functioning because so many of their workers are infected.

    Hopefully, "healthcare workers" is defined as people who have front line contact with patients and doesn't include the ladies in the billing office.

    Replies: @candid_observer

    But when nursing home residents get seriously ill, they are moved to a hospital setting, taking up scarce resources. Insofar as we should be concerned about hospitals being overwhelmed, this is an issue for all of us, including, obviously, health care workers.

  76. @That Would Be Telling
    @candid_observer


    I’m puzzled that very top priority is not Long Term Care Facility Residents.
     
    It's got to come down to optics, which are of supreme importance in these vaccines receiving whatever limited acceptance they will get. Including TDS, you know the media will be pouncing on everything they possibly can, including what they make up from whole cloth, so "Trump is experimenting on the most frail elderly!!!" would both happen and be very bad. By not singling them out, by including Health Care Professionals (HCPs) at the same time, who are a much more representative cohort of Americans, that's avoided.

    We also don't know for whom the FDA will, if at all, approve administering these earliest vaccines to. Suppose Pfizer/BioNTech is not allowed for the very elderly, it's been said that unlike Moderna Pfizer didn't put a lot of effort into enrolling elderly test subjects.

    I also seriously wonder about your "delay this process over a much longer period of time" concern from the logistics side of things (note that's headed by an general who was in charge of the US military's logistics operatioe, the Army does it for all branches, for example as of the 1990s had a huge fleet of barges), that's more likely to come from production limitations, but there will be millions of doses immediately available from Moderna thanks to the Manhattan Project methods of Operation Warp Speed (OWS).

    Pfizer refused all up front OWS money, only got a guarantee of purchases if it finished its vaccine by the end of the year. But they have brewed up a lot in anticipation of approval (and/or maybe accepted pounds from the U.K., they've got 800,000 doses shipping right this very moment there). As of November 20th, when they submitted their application for a FDA Emergency Use Authorization (EUA), they said they had 20 million warehoused worldwide, expected 50 million by the end of the year.

    Also, if the FDA is slated to decide for them on the 10th, the second dose is done 21 days after the first, so.... Moderna's is 29 days after, and they've taken a lot of money from the US government (money has been up this year their most notable feature). As of their EUA application Monday, they said they'd have 20 million doses ready by the end of the year, all allocated for the US I assume. Note we also shouldn't begrudge Germany getting a lot of Pfizer/BioNTech doses, the latter company is based there and that country contributed a fair amount of money to it, maybe the EU as well.

    Replies: @candid_observer

    Well, one way to deal with the optics issue you raise is to give the vaccination first to the workers who care for the LTCFR. I gather that there are on average about 2 residents to 1 caregiver.

    This is one of the very few cases I can think of where there’s a clear chokepoint in which vaccinating the transmitters of the disease before those vulnerable seems to make sense. And of course it all depends on how much transmission is actually reduced by vaccination — which we don’t yet know for sure.

    • Replies: @That Would Be Telling
    @candid_observer

    Shouldn't have deleted the beginning of my initial reply to you, where I noted you want to make the fewest possible visits to any given facility, so if you're going to be vaccinating the workers, you might as well hit all the patients at the same time.

    Thinking more, that'll in part depend on whether and who does 8 and 12 hour shifts. For the former, one visit at the shift changeover won't be enough, although maybe 3rd shift workers will be directed to visit a general vaccination site.

    Another issue, the very first people who get it should be the ones who have to come within close quarters to do the injections....

    , @Jack D
    @candid_observer


    And of course it all depends on how much transmission is actually reduced by vaccination — which we don’t yet know for sure.
     
    I think this is going to be like the question of whether having covid gives you immunity, another "we don't know for sure" question. While it is true that we don't know "for sure", both of these questions are more in the realm of talking heads speculation than any serious probability. The nice thing about "we don't know for sure" is that it gives free range to the imagination and allows you to take up lots of air time but "not knowing for sure" is n0t the same as "we have no bloody idea". Based upon all that we know from other virus and vaccines, the real likelihood is that having had covid gives you immunity at least for a couple of years if not longer (with any subsequent reinfections being much milder and not lethal) and that the vaccine will make you non-infectious.

    Replies: @That Would Be Telling, @candid_observer

  77. @The Wild Geese Howard
    @Dr. X


    There won’t be ANY side effects from the brand-new RNA manipulation
     
    TPTB are smarter than that.

    The first few rounds of vax will be harmless to build confidence and lull people into a false sense of security.

    After three or four rounds of jabs we'll start to see ramps in the numbers rendered sterile, touched by terminal cancer, or afflicted by various odd wasting diseases.

    Replies: @botazefa

    The first few rounds of vax will be harmless to build confidence and lull people into a false sense of security

    After three or four rounds of jabs we’ll start to see ramps in the numbers rendered sterile, touched by terminal cancer, or afflicted by various odd wasting diseases

    .

    Do you honestly believe that vaccines are being developed for the purpose of injuring people? That is crazy. People believing crap like this is why we can’t have nice things in the flyover states. It’s no wonder college educated people think we are credulous nitwits.

    • Disagree: TTSSYF
    • Replies: @The Wild Geese Howard
    @botazefa


    That is crazy.
     
    Not nearly as crazy as actually believing Big Pharma and Big Govt actually care about our health.
  78. @utu
    OT: How the narrative about Covid-19 pandemic will have to be changed to incorporate growing evidence that it was present in the West already in 2019?

    There are only two options. (1) The antibody tests in the old blood samples are inaccurate or purposefully manipulated or (2) The pandemic is nothing as it can silently spread for months without being noticed.

    How did Covid REALLY spread around the world? New damning test results that show antibodies were in US in December - WEEKS before China raised the alarm - add to growing global evidence of a cover-up
    https://www.dailymail.co.uk/news/article-9009297/How-did-Covid-REALLY-spread-world-Coronavirus-blood-samples-December.html

    September 3, 2019 – Veneto, Italy: A study carried out in Italy, by the National Cancer Institute in Milan, found coronavirus antibodies in 111 people out of 959 blood samples taken before March 2020. The first sample that tested positive was dated September 3 and collected in the Veneto region of the country. Italy announced its first official case on February 20.

    September 4 and 5, 2019 – Emilia Romagna and Liguria, Italy: The National Cancer Institute study found antibodies in blood samples taken from the two regions, which are to the south-west of Veneto.

    September 9, 2019 – Lombardy, Italy: The first two antibody-positive samples from Lombardy, the Alpine region that contains Milan and was one of the worst hit places in the world during the first wave, date back to September 9. By the time all of September's samples had been analysed, 13 out of 23 that were antibody positive had been taken in Lombardy.

    September 11, 2019 – Lazio, Italy: The first antibody-positive specimen found from the Lazio region was dated September 11.

    November 2019 – Brazil: Analysis of past human sewage samples from the southern Brazilian region of Santa Catalina found traces of the SARS-Cov-2 coronavirus as early as November 27. In the city of Florianopolis, samples from between October 30 and March were analysed, will all samples from

    November 27 onwards testing positive. Brazil announced its first official case on February 26.

    November 2019 – China: Leaked government documents show cases of coronavirus were being recorded in Wuhan as early as November 17, the South China Morning Post reported in March. China announced its first official cases on December 31.

    December 2019 – United States: A CDC study published on November 30 2020 revealed that coronavirus antibodies had been found in blood samples taken from people in California, Oregon and Washington as early as December 17. Further testing found Covid-positive samples dating to mid-

    December and early January in Connecticut, Iowa, Massachusetts, Michigan, Rhode Island and Wisconsin. The US announced its first official case on January 21.

    December 2019 – France: A man who was coughing up blood in intensive care in Paris on December 27 2019 has since been found to have had coronavirus. Scientists discovered the airport worker by trawling back through patients hospitalised with flu-like symptoms in December. A retrospective coronavirus test done on blood samples taken while he was in hospital found he was infected with the virus at the time, according to a study published in the International Journal of Antimicrobial Agents. France announced its first official case on January 24.

    December 2019 – China: The first cases of 'pneumonia of unknown cause' are reported to the World Health Organization by Chinese officials. A total of 44 had been declared by January 3.

    January 2020 – Spain: A study by the University of Barcelona discovered traces of the coronavirus in sewage in the city in a sample from January 15. It has been regularly testing sewage during the pandemic to track the presence of the virus, and a look back at older samples found it weeks before Covid-19 was officially discovered in the city. An even older sample showed a 'low' concentration of the virus in March 2019, but this required further research to confirm, scientists said. Spain announced its first official case on January 31.

    January 2020 – United Kingdom: A man who died on January 30 after falling ill in December later had his death attributed to Covid-19 by a coroner after traces of coronavirus were found in his lungs. Peter Attwood, 84, had developed symptoms of coronavirus on December 28 and later died in hospital, his daughter said, and she also reported being ill with a similar condition in December. Mr Attwood's death happened a day before Britain's first cases of coronavirus were reported on January 31.

    Replies: @The Last Real Calvinist, @Satanax, @Old Prude, @Old Prude, @Travis

    The CDC analyzed more than 7,000 blood donations collected by the American Red Cross in nine states between Dec. 13, 2019 and Jan. 17, 2020. Of those, 106 samples tested positive for antibodies against SARS-CoV-2, the virus that causes COVID-19. https://academic.oup.com/cid/advance-article/doi/10.1093/cid/ciaa1785/6012472

    The scientists indicated it’s unlikely that the antibodies developed to curb other coronaviruses, as 84 samples were found to have neutralizing activity specific to SARS-CoV-2.
    https://www.bloomberg.com/news/articles/2020-12-01/covid-infections-found-in-u-s-in-2019-weeks-before-china-cases

    It takes up to 3 weeks to develop antibodies, so this coronavirus virus must have been circulating across America since November 2019. Over 1% of the Red Cross blood samples taken from Californians had antibodies to COVID 19 in December 2019.

    • Replies: @utu
    @Travis


    Over 1% of the Red Cross blood samples taken from Californians had antibodies to COVID 19 in December 2019.
     
    Thanks. The infection rate of 1% in California in December just does not make sense: 1%=390k infected in December--> 2,000 deaths in January at IFR-0.5%. Then many more in February and many many more in March, while the officials death count at the end of March in California is 180 deaths.

    We would have to revise everything what we know about the covid epidemic.

    Replies: @That Would Be Telling

    , @Jack D
    @Travis

    I wouldn't trust the CDC not to have screwed this up - e.g. they cross contaminated their samples. In terms of trying to make sense of the results, that would be my best guess.

    #2 guess would be Chinese sabotage of the study. I'm not usually a conspiracy theorist but China really doesn't like being blamed for anything, including WuFlu, so I wouldn't put this past them. China has also recently called home 1,000 Chinese "grad students" (i.e. intelligence officers/ industrial spies) because they were afraid that they were about to be swept up by the USG. Maybe they are also getting ready for their Pearl Harbor attack on Taiwan, waiting for some moment of (further) disarray and distraction in the US. They are already locking down Hong Kong.

    Replies: @That Would Be Telling

  79. @candid_observer
    @That Would Be Telling

    Well, one way to deal with the optics issue you raise is to give the vaccination first to the workers who care for the LTCFR. I gather that there are on average about 2 residents to 1 caregiver.

    This is one of the very few cases I can think of where there's a clear chokepoint in which vaccinating the transmitters of the disease before those vulnerable seems to make sense. And of course it all depends on how much transmission is actually reduced by vaccination -- which we don't yet know for sure.

    Replies: @That Would Be Telling, @Jack D

    Shouldn’t have deleted the beginning of my initial reply to you, where I noted you want to make the fewest possible visits to any given facility, so if you’re going to be vaccinating the workers, you might as well hit all the patients at the same time.

    Thinking more, that’ll in part depend on whether and who does 8 and 12 hour shifts. For the former, one visit at the shift changeover won’t be enough, although maybe 3rd shift workers will be directed to visit a general vaccination site.

    Another issue, the very first people who get it should be the ones who have to come within close quarters to do the injections….

  80. @candid_observer
    @That Would Be Telling

    Well, one way to deal with the optics issue you raise is to give the vaccination first to the workers who care for the LTCFR. I gather that there are on average about 2 residents to 1 caregiver.

    This is one of the very few cases I can think of where there's a clear chokepoint in which vaccinating the transmitters of the disease before those vulnerable seems to make sense. And of course it all depends on how much transmission is actually reduced by vaccination -- which we don't yet know for sure.

    Replies: @That Would Be Telling, @Jack D

    And of course it all depends on how much transmission is actually reduced by vaccination — which we don’t yet know for sure.

    I think this is going to be like the question of whether having covid gives you immunity, another “we don’t know for sure” question. While it is true that we don’t know “for sure”, both of these questions are more in the realm of talking heads speculation than any serious probability. The nice thing about “we don’t know for sure” is that it gives free range to the imagination and allows you to take up lots of air time but “not knowing for sure” is n0t the same as “we have no bloody idea”. Based upon all that we know from other virus and vaccines, the real likelihood is that having had covid gives you immunity at least for a couple of years if not longer (with any subsequent reinfections being much milder and not lethal) and that the vaccine will make you non-infectious.

    • Agree: Johann Ricke
    • Replies: @That Would Be Telling
    @Jack D

    "we don’t know for sure" also comes from scientists and the like not wanting to get prematurely pinned down when there's uncertainty, or a range of uncertainty. The whole "reinfection" meme is an wretched example of this, likely comprised of iffy testing in the beginning, iffy understanding by many of what RT-PCR tests find, which can include non-viable viral debris the body is still clearing out, and and people with wonky immune systems.

    One fascinating example of the latter was reported fairly early out of the PRC, a patient had clearly clinically fought Corona-chan to a draw, but was still shedding viruses (don't know if they checked to see if they were viable). So they gave him some convalescent plasma, and that was enough to help his body finish it off.

    , @candid_observer
    @Jack D

    There's a distinction between the question of whether one retains immunity after getting the vaccine and the question of how transmissible is the virus in someone who has been vaccinated. It's plausible that the immunity is forever if the vaccine has been effective for an individual, but the transmissibility is still non-negligible. We don't know how infectious someone is when they've been vaccinated, don't get Covid, but are exposed to the virus in the same degree as would suffice to give them Covid otherwise. Presumably they go through some period during which their immune system fights off the infection. Are they infectious at this point? If so, how much?

    I'd guess that if the efficacy rate is 95%, then the reduction of infectiousness is close to that figure, but that's pretty speculative so far as I know.

  81. @Jack D
    @candid_observer


    And of course it all depends on how much transmission is actually reduced by vaccination — which we don’t yet know for sure.
     
    I think this is going to be like the question of whether having covid gives you immunity, another "we don't know for sure" question. While it is true that we don't know "for sure", both of these questions are more in the realm of talking heads speculation than any serious probability. The nice thing about "we don't know for sure" is that it gives free range to the imagination and allows you to take up lots of air time but "not knowing for sure" is n0t the same as "we have no bloody idea". Based upon all that we know from other virus and vaccines, the real likelihood is that having had covid gives you immunity at least for a couple of years if not longer (with any subsequent reinfections being much milder and not lethal) and that the vaccine will make you non-infectious.

    Replies: @That Would Be Telling, @candid_observer

    “we don’t know for sure” also comes from scientists and the like not wanting to get prematurely pinned down when there’s uncertainty, or a range of uncertainty. The whole “reinfection” meme is an wretched example of this, likely comprised of iffy testing in the beginning, iffy understanding by many of what RT-PCR tests find, which can include non-viable viral debris the body is still clearing out, and and people with wonky immune systems.

    One fascinating example of the latter was reported fairly early out of the PRC, a patient had clearly clinically fought Corona-chan to a draw, but was still shedding viruses (don’t know if they checked to see if they were viable). So they gave him some convalescent plasma, and that was enough to help his body finish it off.

  82. @Roger
    What if the first 20 million doses become available, and then there are exactly 20 million who are willing to be in the first group to try it. We should just let the eager ones take the early doses.

    It is possible that all this talk of rationing is completely stupid, and the problem would take care of itself. It is probably not necessary for anyone to ration the vaccine.

    Replies: @U. Ranus, @Jack D, @Adam Smith

    I suspect that is what is really going to happen – we are going to go from shortage to surplus in very short order because a lot of the high priority recipients, especially recipients “of color” are not going to want the vaccine. Uptake is going to be highest among doctors, then somewhat less among nurses and then much less among the heavily minority orderlies, etc. who actually make up the bulk of “healthcare workers”. Probably there will be a point where doses are just sitting in the freezer or even going to waste and then they will give up and open the vaccine to the next level of priority.

    As you can see from the comments here (and the commenters here are intellectual giants compared to the average BIPOC), (i) the average level of scientific understanding is very low and (ii) trust between the masses and the elites (including the medical establishment) in our society has been utterly destroyed. People no longer believe “authorities” or “mainstream medicine” (and not entirely without reason – mainstream medicine brought us Oxycontin and other such plagues and their dietary advice has often been wrong or cursory at best). Blacks especially assume that the government wants to do Tuskegee Experiments on them. As Steve says, we are reverting to African patterns where witchdoctors and spells are more important than Western medicine. And it’s not just blacks – I just saw a commercial where Rite Aid was claiming that all of its pharmacists would now be trained in holistic and natural methods so that if you went in to their pharmacy they might suggest some herbs or something that you could take instead of a pill.

    There are a large # of people for whom endorsement of the vaccine by authorities makes it LESS likely that they will take it. Maybe the best strategy is to tell people they CAN’T have the vaccine and then they will want to buy it on the black market from their local drug dealer. It works for opioids.

    • Replies: @Art Deco
    @Jack D

    and then much less among the heavily minority orderlies, etc. who actually make up the bulk of “healthcare workers”. Probably there will be a point where doses are just sitting in the freezer or even going to waste and then they will give up and open the vaccine to the next level of priority.

    1. Are black mothers refusing DPT and polio vaccines for their kids? How many and where?

    2. About 1/4 of those in 'healthcare support occupations' are black, with the largest share to be found among nurse's aides and home health aides. Is it really your contention that they're planning to endanger their jobs by refusing innoculations?

    Replies: @Jack D

  83. @That Would Be Telling
    @Travis


    30% of the healthcare workers have already recovered from CV and probably still have the antibodies. It seems wasteful to give the vaccine to the millions of Americans who have recovered from COVID already.
     
    If that (CDC!!!) guess is correct (and for once I'm comfortable with that bit of work from them), figuring out which 30% would require ~21 million antibody tests, probably of a significant degree of sophistication, you have to look for memory cells for those who are some distance in time from their infection, plus I hear there's a 96% general limit in accuracy of such testing. Going to be logistically much easier and financially much cheaper to just give them all vaccinations.

    Replies: @Hernan Pizzaro del Blanco, @MGB

    that’s not quite correct. according to recent studies, Covid specific T-Cells are also produced in reaction to an exposure/infection, and the T-Cells are more persistent than Covid-specific anti-bodies.
    so a T-Cell test might be more accurate than anti-body testing. More importantly, infection/exposure does not always result in anti-body production. Often the virus is dealt with efficiently without the production of anti-bodies through a variety of defenses, including T-Cells, macrophages, etc. (there was some TV presenter half-wit blabbering on that 8% of the state population who it is projected had tested positive for anti-bodies prove that 92% of the state population still had not yet been exposed to the Covid, ‘proving’ that a huge wave of cases was on the horizon. One of the reasons i stopped watching TV for information on the pandemic.)

  84. @utu
    @Satanax

    run to the hills - Too late. They even destroyed the Arecibo Observatory so we can't send SOS signals for help to friendly aliens.

    https://i.ibb.co/qYnLhjS/z26566355-IH-Radioteleskop-Arecibo.jpg

    Replies: @MEH 0910

    Footage of Arecibo Observatory collapse

    Footage of the collapse of the Arecibo Observatory. Credit: Courtesy of the Arecibo Observatory, a U.S. National Science Foundation facility

    [MORE]

    • Thanks: Adam Smith
  85. @Satanax
    @utu

    That's it. They won. Proof of their total victory is here in these endless, senseless and fruitless debates: you are chasing your own tails. They want you to debate among yourselves to the end of time because it is an effective weapon of mass distraction while they are implementing the Great Reset. There is no virus. Covid19 is a global psy-op, not a disease. One hint among numerous others: in the very beginning, even Fauci said this was no worse than the seasonal flu. The evidences are everywhere of this being a massive and very effective global fear campaign. Just open your eyes and look! It's amazing that for some Covid has become a religion, even among the so-called intellectuals. All governments are in it together, acting out the same script forced on them by the globalists. The slaves are all being played.

    Replies: @The Wild Geese Howard

    CNN reporting on national vax card proposed by DoD, FDA meeting to discuss on Dec 10 and 17:

    ‘Immunity Cards’ To Be Issued To All Americans; Enable CDC To Track COVID-19 Vaxx Status In Database

    https://www.zerohedge.com/medical/covid-19-vax-status-be-tracked-cdc-database-everyone-issued-vaccination-cards-according-dod

    It’s over.

    We are on the path to THX-1138.

    • Replies: @That Would Be Telling
    @The Wild Geese Howard


    It’s over.

    We are on the path to THX-1138.
     
    Really now. What's being reported is indistinguishable from responsible policies that are necessary to make very sure that a person who gets initial dose of vaccine A doesn't get a booster of B, which is of course entirely untested.

    And with so many people literally screaming bloody murder about these "untested," "rushed," etc. vaccines, you don't want the government tracking side effects in the so called "Phase IV" of drug testing?? To quote Wikipedia which gets it right, "Safety studies during sales - Postmarketing studies delineate risks, benefits, and optimal use. As such, they are ongoing during the drug's lifetime of active medical use."

    There's no pleasing some people.

    Replies: @The Wild Geese Howard

  86. @botazefa
    @The Wild Geese Howard



    The first few rounds of vax will be harmless to build confidence and lull people into a false sense of security

    After three or four rounds of jabs we’ll start to see ramps in the numbers rendered sterile, touched by terminal cancer, or afflicted by various odd wasting diseases
     
    .

    Do you honestly believe that vaccines are being developed for the purpose of injuring people? That is crazy. People believing crap like this is why we can't have nice things in the flyover states. It's no wonder college educated people think we are credulous nitwits.

    Replies: @The Wild Geese Howard

    That is crazy.

    Not nearly as crazy as actually believing Big Pharma and Big Govt actually care about our health.

    • Disagree: botazefa
  87. @Jack D
    @candid_observer


    And of course it all depends on how much transmission is actually reduced by vaccination — which we don’t yet know for sure.
     
    I think this is going to be like the question of whether having covid gives you immunity, another "we don't know for sure" question. While it is true that we don't know "for sure", both of these questions are more in the realm of talking heads speculation than any serious probability. The nice thing about "we don't know for sure" is that it gives free range to the imagination and allows you to take up lots of air time but "not knowing for sure" is n0t the same as "we have no bloody idea". Based upon all that we know from other virus and vaccines, the real likelihood is that having had covid gives you immunity at least for a couple of years if not longer (with any subsequent reinfections being much milder and not lethal) and that the vaccine will make you non-infectious.

    Replies: @That Would Be Telling, @candid_observer

    There’s a distinction between the question of whether one retains immunity after getting the vaccine and the question of how transmissible is the virus in someone who has been vaccinated. It’s plausible that the immunity is forever if the vaccine has been effective for an individual, but the transmissibility is still non-negligible. We don’t know how infectious someone is when they’ve been vaccinated, don’t get Covid, but are exposed to the virus in the same degree as would suffice to give them Covid otherwise. Presumably they go through some period during which their immune system fights off the infection. Are they infectious at this point? If so, how much?

    I’d guess that if the efficacy rate is 95%, then the reduction of infectiousness is close to that figure, but that’s pretty speculative so far as I know.

  88. Good afternoon everyone,

    I hope this message finds you well…

    Recently vaccinated people spread disease.

    Please quarantine yourself for a month after you receive a jab.

    [MORE]

    Physicians and public health officials know that recently vaccinated individuals can spread disease and that contact with the immunocompromised can be especially dangerous.

    WHO and UNICEF said in a joint statement the polio outbreak in the Philippines is concerning because it is caused by vaccine-derived poliovirus type 2.

    Nearly all the cases of polio in the modern world are caused by polio vaccines.

    In 2011, a team of scientists looked specifically at how the shingles vaccine spreads the virus that causes chickenpox infection. The paper, authored by Duane L. Pierson, is titled, Varicella Zoster Virus DNA at Inoculation Sites and in Saliva After Zostavax Immunization.

    The study looked at 36 individuals over the age of 60 who were recently vaccinated with Zostavax (shingles vaccine). Before the vaccine, saliva samples were taken; none contained pathogenic material. After the vaccine was administered, 50 percent of the recipients tested positive for varicella zoster virus, a neurotropic alphaherpesvirus that causes varicella (chickenpox) in children. In the 28 day follow-up period, the researchers would go on to detect varicella in 58 percent of the recipients. At day fourteen, 31 percent of the recipients tested positive for VZV DNA. At day twenty-one, 28 percent were still carrying the virus. At the end of the month, all but two recipients had eliminated the virus from their system.

    The study authors warn that “the detection of VZV DNA in saliva of Zostavax recipients for up to 28 days suggests that contact with saliva of recently immunized individuals represents a potential source of transmission.”

    A fully vaccinated 22-year-old theater employee in New York City who developed the measles in 2011 was released without hospitalization or quarantine. But like Typhoid Mary, this patient turned out to be unwittingly contagious. Ultimately, she transmitted the measles to four other people, according to a recent report in Clinical Infectious Diseases that tracked symptoms in the 88 people with whom “Measles Mary” interacted while she was sick. Surprisingly, two of the secondary patients had been fully vaccinated. And although the other two had no record of receiving the vaccine, they both showed signs of previous measles exposure that should have conferred immunity.

    People who receive flu shots emit 6.3 times more flu virus particles into the air, compared to non-vaccinated individuals.

    Whooping cough resurgence due to vaccinated people not knowing they’re infectious?

    In late spring 2009, concern was raised in Canada that prior vaccination with the 2008–09 trivalent inactivated influenza vaccine was associated with increased risk of pandemic influenza A (H1N1) illness. Several epidemiological investigations were conducted through the summer to assess this association. Researchers came to the conclusion that prior receipt of 2008–09 trivalent inactivated influenza vaccine was associated with increased risk of medically attended influenza A (H1N1) illness during the spring–summer 2009 in Canada.

    Flu Shot Raises Risk of Coronavirus by 36%

    2012 Hong Kong Study: Flu shots increased the risk of non-flu respiratory infections 4.4 times and tripled flu infections.

    Vaccinated children are 5.9 more likely to suffer pneumonia and 30.1 times more likely to have been diagnosed with Allergic Rhinitis than unvaccinated children.

    Vaccination before 1 year of age is associated with increased odds of developmental delays, asthma and ear infections.

    In other news, unvaccinated Children Pose ZERO Risk to Anyone

    Please be responsible. Please don’t spread disease.

    I hope everyone has a great evening…

    • Replies: @That Would Be Telling
    @Adam Smith

    You might want to read up on old fashioned attenuated live virus vaccines like the Sabin type for polio and Zostavax, which is a 4x dose of the one for childhood chicken pox. The reported issues are exactly what you'd expect, or in the case of Sabin type vaccines, well known for decades. Thus once a county really has polio under control, it switched to the Salk killed virus vaccine, and there's a new different type vaccine for shingles, although one commentator on vaccine iSteve topics has insisted it's got a really bad side effect profile.

    "Measles Mary" is an example of how vaccines don't always work, or did you fail to invert the 95% effective results from Moderna and Pfizer/BioNTech to note they have a 5% failure rate?

    "People who receive flu shots emit 6.3 times more flu virus particles into the air, compared to non-vaccinated individuals." is a fascinating paper, and worth following up, and the related flu items you cite could be related, but I note Corona-chan seems to be like many other diseases and their vaccines, one course of the latter and you're done. Unless you roll snake eyes like Measles Mary. Children? No one under 18 has been tested for the mRNA vaccines, no one under 18 is going to be getting them prior to trials of people their age. That said, Moderna is mooting a trial for "adolescents."

    , @Jack D
    @Adam Smith

    That can be true in the case of "attenuated live virus" type vaccines such as the Sabin polio vaccine. However, none of the currently proposed Covid vaccines involve injecting you with live Covid virus, only with bits and pieces of it, so there's absolutely no way you could get Covid from the vaccine or give it to anyone else.

    There is some small (but not currently defined) risk that after getting the vaccine you might get infected with Covid from elsewhere and not come down with any symptoms but still be infectious to others for some time. However, if everyone (or a lot of people) get the vaccine we will achieve herd immunity and covid will stop circulating in the community even if this is true for some % of the vaccinated (just as it makes no difference that 5% of the vaccinated don't get full immunity themselves).

    The level of ignorance and misinformation that is being circulated is unbelievable. I feel like we are living in Medieval times sometimes.

    Replies: @That Would Be Telling, @Adam Smith

  89. @Roger
    What if the first 20 million doses become available, and then there are exactly 20 million who are willing to be in the first group to try it. We should just let the eager ones take the early doses.

    It is possible that all this talk of rationing is completely stupid, and the problem would take care of itself. It is probably not necessary for anyone to ration the vaccine.

    Replies: @U. Ranus, @Jack D, @Adam Smith

    Like U. Ranus said, perceived scarcity creates demand. People want what the can’t have.

    https://www.nytimes.com/2004/10/17/health/with-few-suppliers-of-flu-shots-shortage-was-long-in-making.html

  90. @Barack Obama's secret Unz account
    @That Would Be Telling


    I think what you’re trying to get at is data, proof for some value of proof, that’s just not available at this time, so we’re working on a reasonable assumption these vaccines also prevent transmission.
     
    I'm just a humble ex-president, so maybe I don't understand - I thought the vaccine testing protocol or whatever relied on people getting the virus? i.e., they were making announcements of progress at 32 positive cases, 64, etc.

    Replies: @That Would Be Telling

    I thought the vaccine testing protocol or whatever relied on people getting the virus? i.e., they were making announcements of progress at 32 positive cases, 64, etc.

    Ah, but it matters very much who in their trial populations gets the virus. Lots in the control “arms” (saline solution placebos for the mRNA vaccines), very few in the vaccine arms, good sign the vaccine is effective in preventing symptomatic COVID-19, and for Moderna, serious COVID-19.

    But that’s not proof that a bunch of people in the vaccine arms didn’t get asymptomatic COVID-19 which they could then transmit to others. Based on what we know about “active” vaccines as I’ve taken to call these, vs. ones with protein or killed virus antigens, we have have a reasonable belief the vast majority of them won’t be able to transmit it, but that’s not something that can be proven with the Phase III test protocol data, either altogether, or this early in them (they run for two years).

    Compare to the “active,” attenuated live virus Sabin oral polio vaccine. If it takes, your gut will never harbor a polio infection. The Salk injected killed virus vaccine does not prevent this, you can get an infection in your gut and pass it on to others, it just prevents such an infection from producing paralytic polio in escaping from your gut into your body.

    • Replies: @Barack Obama's secret Unz account
    @That Would Be Telling

    Thanks.


    But that’s not proof that a bunch of people in the vaccine arms didn’t get asymptomatic COVID-19 which they could then transmit to others.
     
    This is what I don't get: were they not just testing everybody in the protocol for COVID regardless of symptoms? Isn't the point to Stop the Spread (TM)?

    (In fact: why aren't governments doing that anyway? Or at least of a few representative population samples. Instead they're only testing the symptomatic, at least where I live (secret family compound in Kenya).)

    Because if all the mRNA vaccine does is ameliorate symptoms, well, don't we already have painkillers, hydroxychloroquine, inver-whatever-it's-called, supplemental oxygen, or whatever else doctors have figured out since January?

    Clearly I need a primer, but it's a heavily propagandised subject so it's hard to know what's what.

    Anyway, if you don't mind, I just wanna clarify what you're saying about the polio:

    Compare to the “active,” attenuated live virus Sabin oral polio vaccine. If it takes, your gut will never harbor a polio infection. The Salk injected killed virus vaccine does not prevent this, you can get an infection in your gut and pass it on to others, it just prevents such an infection from producing paralytic polio in escaping from your gut into your body.
     
    Because it seems like this is backwards from the COVID vaccines: the "active"/mRNA/live vaccine, w/COVID, does not necessarily prevent infection, but merely ameliorates symptoms; the hypothetical good-old-fashioned dead vaccine prevents infection. But here we're saying that the live polio vaccine - Sabin - prevents infection, while the dead one - Salk - does not prevent infection, only the symptoms, or perhaps rather, the disease that can result from the infection.

    Am I missing something?

    Again, thanks

    Replies: @That Would Be Telling

  91. @Jack D
    @Hernan Pizzaro del Blanco


    Would these people still want to get vaccinated after they recovered from COVID ?
     
    Probably yes. No one knows how long your natural immunity to Covid lasts. At worst * the vaccination would act as a booster shot or do nothing. If the vaccine caused side effects to people who already had the disease this would have showed up already in the trial because some (according to the geniuses here, most) of the trial participants would have already, knowingly or unknowingly, had covid.

    Since the vaccine will be in short supply at first, it probably makes sense not to give it to people who have had known cases of Covid since they (probably) have immunity already but I don't think that is accounted for in the official priority list. Such persons might want to voluntarily abstain so that others can get this shot at first and then get the vaccination once it becomes freely available.

    *at worst it turns you into a sterile, cancerous mind controlled zombie, but I am talking about the real world odds and not the science fiction fantasies that some are spouting here.

    Replies: @aleksander

    Oh, right. “Science fiction fantasies” like Vioxx, which killed about 250,000-500,000 people. That’s DOUBLE the fatalities of coronavirus, by the way. In fact, Vioxx killed so many people it changed the U.S. death rate.

    more–>https://www.theweek.co.uk/us/46535/when-half-million-americans-died-and-nobody-noticed

    YOU ARE OFFICIALLY A MORON.

    • Replies: @Kaz
    @aleksander

    250-500k is a big range.. would like to see some more rigorous analysis on the 1999-2004 numbers considering it's all public data..

    Also lets say it did kill ~250-500k people, that's over 5 years.. Excess mortality since March puts us at ~350k deaths.. That's in less than 9 months.

    , @Adam Smith
    @aleksander

    Vioxx! The Save Social Security Drug!

  92. @Old and Grumpy
    From what I read there will be some pretty harsh side effects. So is vaccinating the healthcare professionals all at once a good idea?

    Replies: @That Would Be Telling

    From what I read there will be some pretty harsh side effects. So is vaccinating the healthcare professionals all at once a good idea?

    Define “harsh.” Also, what fraction get these harsh side effects?

    There’s a lot of bad reporting out there, as I was doing a Bing search just now, I for example found one NY Post account which confused the total number of participants in the Pfizer/BioNTech with the ones who got the vaccine, which is half of that number. In that search, this is the most specific I was able to find on something like severity as well as percentages from the AARP of all sources:

    In Moderna’s phase 3 vaccine trials, about 10 percent of participants experienced fatigue, roughly 9 percent reported muscle aches and about 5 percent had joint pain and headaches. Pfizer’s phase 3 interim analysis documented fatigue in 3.8 percent of participants and headaches in 2 percent. Injection site pain was noted in both trials.

    These reactions are “temporary,” and they “self-resolve” within a few days, says Wilbur Chen, M.D., a professor of medicine and chief of adult clinical studies at the Center for Vaccine Development and Global Health at the University of Maryland….

    That agrees with what I’ve generally read previously, and sounds like a pretty normal side effect profile.

    Logistic efficiency may win out over your concern that not too many health care professionals get the vaccine at the same time, if it’s done by going to say a hospital and trying to vaccination everyone from a couple of shifts in the same visit. Or they might be more clever about this.

  93. @Jack D
    @Roger

    I suspect that is what is really going to happen - we are going to go from shortage to surplus in very short order because a lot of the high priority recipients, especially recipients "of color" are not going to want the vaccine. Uptake is going to be highest among doctors, then somewhat less among nurses and then much less among the heavily minority orderlies, etc. who actually make up the bulk of "healthcare workers". Probably there will be a point where doses are just sitting in the freezer or even going to waste and then they will give up and open the vaccine to the next level of priority.

    As you can see from the comments here (and the commenters here are intellectual giants compared to the average BIPOC), (i) the average level of scientific understanding is very low and (ii) trust between the masses and the elites (including the medical establishment) in our society has been utterly destroyed. People no longer believe "authorities" or "mainstream medicine" (and not entirely without reason - mainstream medicine brought us Oxycontin and other such plagues and their dietary advice has often been wrong or cursory at best). Blacks especially assume that the government wants to do Tuskegee Experiments on them. As Steve says, we are reverting to African patterns where witchdoctors and spells are more important than Western medicine. And it's not just blacks - I just saw a commercial where Rite Aid was claiming that all of its pharmacists would now be trained in holistic and natural methods so that if you went in to their pharmacy they might suggest some herbs or something that you could take instead of a pill.

    There are a large # of people for whom endorsement of the vaccine by authorities makes it LESS likely that they will take it. Maybe the best strategy is to tell people they CAN'T have the vaccine and then they will want to buy it on the black market from their local drug dealer. It works for opioids.

    Replies: @Art Deco

    and then much less among the heavily minority orderlies, etc. who actually make up the bulk of “healthcare workers”. Probably there will be a point where doses are just sitting in the freezer or even going to waste and then they will give up and open the vaccine to the next level of priority.

    1. Are black mothers refusing DPT and polio vaccines for their kids? How many and where?

    2. About 1/4 of those in ‘healthcare support occupations’ are black, with the largest share to be found among nurse’s aides and home health aides. Is it really your contention that they’re planning to endanger their jobs by refusing innoculations?

    • Agree: utu
    • Replies: @Jack D
    @Art Deco

    It it your contention that healthcare workers will be forced to undergo vaccination as a condition of keeping their jobs? And if so, based on what?

    Replies: @Alden

  94. @Adam Smith
    Good afternoon everyone,

    I hope this message finds you well...

    Recently vaccinated people spread disease.

    Please quarantine yourself for a month after you receive a jab.



    Physicians and public health officials know that recently vaccinated individuals can spread disease and that contact with the immunocompromised can be especially dangerous.

    WHO and UNICEF said in a joint statement the polio outbreak in the Philippines is concerning because it is caused by vaccine-derived poliovirus type 2.

    Nearly all the cases of polio in the modern world are caused by polio vaccines.

    In 2011, a team of scientists looked specifically at how the shingles vaccine spreads the virus that causes chickenpox infection. The paper, authored by Duane L. Pierson, is titled, Varicella Zoster Virus DNA at Inoculation Sites and in Saliva After Zostavax Immunization.

    The study looked at 36 individuals over the age of 60 who were recently vaccinated with Zostavax (shingles vaccine). Before the vaccine, saliva samples were taken; none contained pathogenic material. After the vaccine was administered, 50 percent of the recipients tested positive for varicella zoster virus, a neurotropic alphaherpesvirus that causes varicella (chickenpox) in children. In the 28 day follow-up period, the researchers would go on to detect varicella in 58 percent of the recipients. At day fourteen, 31 percent of the recipients tested positive for VZV DNA. At day twenty-one, 28 percent were still carrying the virus. At the end of the month, all but two recipients had eliminated the virus from their system.

    The study authors warn that “the detection of VZV DNA in saliva of Zostavax recipients for up to 28 days suggests that contact with saliva of recently immunized individuals represents a potential source of transmission.”

    A fully vaccinated 22-year-old theater employee in New York City who developed the measles in 2011 was released without hospitalization or quarantine. But like Typhoid Mary, this patient turned out to be unwittingly contagious. Ultimately, she transmitted the measles to four other people, according to a recent report in Clinical Infectious Diseases that tracked symptoms in the 88 people with whom “Measles Mary” interacted while she was sick. Surprisingly, two of the secondary patients had been fully vaccinated. And although the other two had no record of receiving the vaccine, they both showed signs of previous measles exposure that should have conferred immunity.

    People who receive flu shots emit 6.3 times more flu virus particles into the air, compared to non-vaccinated individuals.

    Whooping cough resurgence due to vaccinated people not knowing they're infectious?

    In late spring 2009, concern was raised in Canada that prior vaccination with the 2008–09 trivalent inactivated influenza vaccine was associated with increased risk of pandemic influenza A (H1N1) illness. Several epidemiological investigations were conducted through the summer to assess this association. Researchers came to the conclusion that prior receipt of 2008–09 trivalent inactivated influenza vaccine was associated with increased risk of medically attended influenza A (H1N1) illness during the spring–summer 2009 in Canada.

    Flu Shot Raises Risk of Coronavirus by 36%

    2012 Hong Kong Study: Flu shots increased the risk of non-flu respiratory infections 4.4 times and tripled flu infections.

    Vaccinated children are 5.9 more likely to suffer pneumonia and 30.1 times more likely to have been diagnosed with Allergic Rhinitis than unvaccinated children.

    Vaccination before 1 year of age is associated with increased odds of developmental delays, asthma and ear infections.

    In other news, unvaccinated Children Pose ZERO Risk to Anyone

    Please be responsible. Please don't spread disease.

    I hope everyone has a great evening...

    Replies: @That Would Be Telling, @Jack D

    You might want to read up on old fashioned attenuated live virus vaccines like the Sabin type for polio and Zostavax, which is a 4x dose of the one for childhood chicken pox. The reported issues are exactly what you’d expect, or in the case of Sabin type vaccines, well known for decades. Thus once a county really has polio under control, it switched to the Salk killed virus vaccine, and there’s a new different type vaccine for shingles, although one commentator on vaccine iSteve topics has insisted it’s got a really bad side effect profile.

    “Measles Mary” is an example of how vaccines don’t always work, or did you fail to invert the 95% effective results from Moderna and Pfizer/BioNTech to note they have a 5% failure rate?

    “People who receive flu shots emit 6.3 times more flu virus particles into the air, compared to non-vaccinated individuals.” is a fascinating paper, and worth following up, and the related flu items you cite could be related, but I note Corona-chan seems to be like many other diseases and their vaccines, one course of the latter and you’re done. Unless you roll snake eyes like Measles Mary. Children? No one under 18 has been tested for the mRNA vaccines, no one under 18 is going to be getting them prior to trials of people their age. That said, Moderna is mooting a trial for “adolescents.”

  95. @The Wild Geese Howard
    @Satanax

    CNN reporting on national vax card proposed by DoD, FDA meeting to discuss on Dec 10 and 17:


    'Immunity Cards' To Be Issued To All Americans; Enable CDC To Track COVID-19 Vaxx Status In Database


    https://www.zerohedge.com/medical/covid-19-vax-status-be-tracked-cdc-database-everyone-issued-vaccination-cards-according-dod

    It's over.

    We are on the path to THX-1138.

    Replies: @That Would Be Telling

    It’s over.

    We are on the path to THX-1138.

    Really now. What’s being reported is indistinguishable from responsible policies that are necessary to make very sure that a person who gets initial dose of vaccine A doesn’t get a booster of B, which is of course entirely untested.

    And with so many people literally screaming bloody murder about these “untested,” “rushed,” etc. vaccines, you don’t want the government tracking side effects in the so called “Phase IV” of drug testing?? To quote Wikipedia which gets it right, “Safety studies during sales – Postmarketing studies delineate risks, benefits, and optimal use. As such, they are ongoing during the drug’s lifetime of active medical use.”

    There’s no pleasing some people.

    • Replies: @The Wild Geese Howard
    @That Would Be Telling

    What lovely prevarication.

    Riddle me this -

    How have they managed to develop a vaccine based on a virus that has not been successfully isolated?

    Replies: @That Would Be Telling

  96. @Whitney
    @Louis Renault

    It is so disturbing how many supposedly smart people are rushing to get this rushed vaccine. When I saw my doctor recently, who's a total pod person wearing a mask and a face shield, he said I would be last on the list to get a vaccine. I think he was trying to scare me but I just kept saying great! Sounds good!

    https://2020news.de/en/dr-wodarg-and-dr-yeadon-request-a-stop-of-all-corona-vaccination-studies-and-call-for-co-signing-the-petition/

    https://www.buzzfeed.com/amphtml/shaunlintern/these-nhs-staff-were-told-the-swine-flu-vaccine-was-safe

    Replies: @Kaz

    Maybe you’re just dumb man

  97. @aleksander
    @Jack D

    Oh, right. "Science fiction fantasies" like Vioxx, which killed about 250,000-500,000 people. That's DOUBLE the fatalities of coronavirus, by the way. In fact, Vioxx killed so many people it changed the U.S. death rate.

    more-->https://www.theweek.co.uk/us/46535/when-half-million-americans-died-and-nobody-noticed


    YOU ARE OFFICIALLY A MORON.

    Replies: @Kaz, @Adam Smith

    250-500k is a big range.. would like to see some more rigorous analysis on the 1999-2004 numbers considering it’s all public data..

    Also lets say it did kill ~250-500k people, that’s over 5 years.. Excess mortality since March puts us at ~350k deaths.. That’s in less than 9 months.

  98. @aleksander
    @Jack D

    Oh, right. "Science fiction fantasies" like Vioxx, which killed about 250,000-500,000 people. That's DOUBLE the fatalities of coronavirus, by the way. In fact, Vioxx killed so many people it changed the U.S. death rate.

    more-->https://www.theweek.co.uk/us/46535/when-half-million-americans-died-and-nobody-noticed


    YOU ARE OFFICIALLY A MORON.

    Replies: @Kaz, @Adam Smith

    Vioxx! The Save Social Security Drug!

  99. @Travis
    @utu

    The CDC analyzed more than 7,000 blood donations collected by the American Red Cross in nine states between Dec. 13, 2019 and Jan. 17, 2020. Of those, 106 samples tested positive for antibodies against SARS-CoV-2, the virus that causes COVID-19. https://academic.oup.com/cid/advance-article/doi/10.1093/cid/ciaa1785/6012472

    The scientists indicated it’s unlikely that the antibodies developed to curb other coronaviruses, as 84 samples were found to have neutralizing activity specific to SARS-CoV-2.
    https://www.bloomberg.com/news/articles/2020-12-01/covid-infections-found-in-u-s-in-2019-weeks-before-china-cases

    It takes up to 3 weeks to develop antibodies, so this coronavirus virus must have been circulating across America since November 2019. Over 1% of the Red Cross blood samples taken from Californians had antibodies to COVID 19 in December 2019.

    Replies: @utu, @Jack D

    Over 1% of the Red Cross blood samples taken from Californians had antibodies to COVID 19 in December 2019.

    Thanks. The infection rate of 1% in California in December just does not make sense: 1%=390k infected in December–> 2,000 deaths in January at IFR-0.5%. Then many more in February and many many more in March, while the officials death count at the end of March in California is 180 deaths.

    We would have to revise everything what we know about the covid epidemic.

    • Replies: @That Would Be Telling
    @utu


    The infection rate of 1% in California in December just does not make sense....
     
    People who donate blood are a self-selected group, probably more so in the holiday season month of December. So assuming in the first place the antibody tests used were pretty good, I don't think you can trivially extrapolate to the general population.

    Replies: @utu

  100. @That Would Be Telling
    @The Wild Geese Howard


    It’s over.

    We are on the path to THX-1138.
     
    Really now. What's being reported is indistinguishable from responsible policies that are necessary to make very sure that a person who gets initial dose of vaccine A doesn't get a booster of B, which is of course entirely untested.

    And with so many people literally screaming bloody murder about these "untested," "rushed," etc. vaccines, you don't want the government tracking side effects in the so called "Phase IV" of drug testing?? To quote Wikipedia which gets it right, "Safety studies during sales - Postmarketing studies delineate risks, benefits, and optimal use. As such, they are ongoing during the drug's lifetime of active medical use."

    There's no pleasing some people.

    Replies: @The Wild Geese Howard

    What lovely prevarication.

    Riddle me this –

    How have they managed to develop a vaccine based on a virus that has not been successfully isolated?

    • Replies: @That Would Be Telling
    @The Wild Geese Howard


    How have they managed to develop a vaccine based on a virus that has not been successfully isolated?
     
    Define "isolated."

    Ignoring it was isolated by many entities like the CDC in the timeframe you'd expect, there are two key insights that should demolish this meme: working with any serious quantity of the SARS-CoV-2 virus requires a BSL-3 lab at minimum (research the difficulties of doing anything at the various BSL levels for why that's a big issue and avoided when it can be), and all of the leading vaccines are based on genetic engineering. That is, people could get working on them starting January the 10th, when the first genetic sequences of the virus were published from the PRC.

    mRNA vaccines use a tweaked for stability copy of just the RNA sequence for the spike protein, thus Moderna had their candidate two days later, adenovirus virus vector vaccines have some of their DNA replaced with a sequence that codes for the spike protein. Virus isolates are only needed for the purposes of ethical vaccine research in animal testing "challenge" experiments, exposing an animal to the virus to see if he gets it.

    Replies: @The Wild Geese Howard

  101. @utu
    @Travis


    Over 1% of the Red Cross blood samples taken from Californians had antibodies to COVID 19 in December 2019.
     
    Thanks. The infection rate of 1% in California in December just does not make sense: 1%=390k infected in December--> 2,000 deaths in January at IFR-0.5%. Then many more in February and many many more in March, while the officials death count at the end of March in California is 180 deaths.

    We would have to revise everything what we know about the covid epidemic.

    Replies: @That Would Be Telling

    The infection rate of 1% in California in December just does not make sense….

    People who donate blood are a self-selected group, probably more so in the holiday season month of December. So assuming in the first place the antibody tests used were pretty good, I don’t think you can trivially extrapolate to the general population.

    • Replies: @utu
    @That Would Be Telling

    Why instead of trying to think this problem through you try to dismiss it with a red hearing?


    People who donate blood are a self-selected group, probably more so in the holiday season month of December.
     
    Blood donations decline around holidays.
    https://www.redcross.org/about-us/news-and-events/press-release/Red-Cross-Seeks-Holiday-Blood-and-Platelet-Donations.html

    I don’t think you can trivially extrapolate to the general population.
     
    Even if it would be 0.1% or even 0.01% not 1% with large R0 of a silent epidemic (no awareness, no countermeasures whatsoever) you would end up with a huge number of deaths at by the end of March.

    Why instead of trying to think this problem through you try to dismiss it with a red hearing? This is a sure sign of a shill as some here insinuate. "Nothing to see here!"

    https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=aKnX5wci404

    Replies: @That Would Be Telling

  102. @That Would Be Telling
    @utu


    The infection rate of 1% in California in December just does not make sense....
     
    People who donate blood are a self-selected group, probably more so in the holiday season month of December. So assuming in the first place the antibody tests used were pretty good, I don't think you can trivially extrapolate to the general population.

    Replies: @utu

    Why instead of trying to think this problem through you try to dismiss it with a red hearing?

    People who donate blood are a self-selected group, probably more so in the holiday season month of December.

    Blood donations decline around holidays.
    https://www.redcross.org/about-us/news-and-events/press-release/Red-Cross-Seeks-Holiday-Blood-and-Platelet-Donations.html

    I don’t think you can trivially extrapolate to the general population.

    Even if it would be 0.1% or even 0.01% not 1% with large R0 of a silent epidemic (no awareness, no countermeasures whatsoever) you would end up with a huge number of deaths at by the end of March.

    Why instead of trying to think this problem through you try to dismiss it with a red hearing? This is a sure sign of a shill as some here insinuate. “Nothing to see here!”

    • Replies: @That Would Be Telling
    @utu


    Why instead of trying to think this problem through you try to dismiss it with a red hearing?
     
    Because it's a problem I'm not very interested in! Note how I haven't chimed in on any of your excellent discussion threads about this, for me they're for learning, not doing work. It's difficult epidemiology, a subject I only formally, rigorously started learning early this year, whereas I first did wet lab molecular genetics and biology work in the mid-1970s. Here, I'm just trying to give you a warning about an obvious limitation of one data set you're using, but if you'd like some help, just ask.

    Replies: @utu

  103. @The Wild Geese Howard
    @That Would Be Telling

    What lovely prevarication.

    Riddle me this -

    How have they managed to develop a vaccine based on a virus that has not been successfully isolated?

    Replies: @That Would Be Telling

    How have they managed to develop a vaccine based on a virus that has not been successfully isolated?

    Define “isolated.”

    Ignoring it was isolated by many entities like the CDC in the timeframe you’d expect, there are two key insights that should demolish this meme: working with any serious quantity of the SARS-CoV-2 virus requires a BSL-3 lab at minimum (research the difficulties of doing anything at the various BSL levels for why that’s a big issue and avoided when it can be), and all of the leading vaccines are based on genetic engineering. That is, people could get working on them starting January the 10th, when the first genetic sequences of the virus were published from the PRC.

    mRNA vaccines use a tweaked for stability copy of just the RNA sequence for the spike protein, thus Moderna had their candidate two days later, adenovirus virus vector vaccines have some of their DNA replaced with a sequence that codes for the spike protein. Virus isolates are only needed for the purposes of ethical vaccine research in animal testing “challenge” experiments, exposing an animal to the virus to see if he gets it.

    • Replies: @The Wild Geese Howard
    @That Would Be Telling

    Thank you for the information.

    You are more than welcome to my vax doses.

  104. @utu
    @That Would Be Telling

    Why instead of trying to think this problem through you try to dismiss it with a red hearing?


    People who donate blood are a self-selected group, probably more so in the holiday season month of December.
     
    Blood donations decline around holidays.
    https://www.redcross.org/about-us/news-and-events/press-release/Red-Cross-Seeks-Holiday-Blood-and-Platelet-Donations.html

    I don’t think you can trivially extrapolate to the general population.
     
    Even if it would be 0.1% or even 0.01% not 1% with large R0 of a silent epidemic (no awareness, no countermeasures whatsoever) you would end up with a huge number of deaths at by the end of March.

    Why instead of trying to think this problem through you try to dismiss it with a red hearing? This is a sure sign of a shill as some here insinuate. "Nothing to see here!"

    https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=aKnX5wci404

    Replies: @That Would Be Telling

    Why instead of trying to think this problem through you try to dismiss it with a red hearing?

    Because it’s a problem I’m not very interested in! Note how I haven’t chimed in on any of your excellent discussion threads about this, for me they’re for learning, not doing work. It’s difficult epidemiology, a subject I only formally, rigorously started learning early this year, whereas I first did wet lab molecular genetics and biology work in the mid-1970s. Here, I’m just trying to give you a warning about an obvious limitation of one data set you’re using, but if you’d like some help, just ask.

    • Replies: @utu
    @That Would Be Telling

    In the early stage of the epidemic in Sweden the infection rate doubling period was 7 days. I take Sweden because they had minimal countermeasures so their R0 is closer to the natural unrestricted epidemic growth. California has higher population density with several cities bigger than anything in Sweden, so unrestricted R0 in California when people are not aware that the epidemic is among them would be much greater than R0 in Sweden and thus the doubling period would be shorter than 7 days.

    Doubling period of 7 days implies 4096=2^12 multiplicative factor in 90 days where 12=90/7.

    If we assume that instead of the 1% infection rate as suggested by the Red Cross blood samples in December 2020 the infection rate in California was 200 time lower (0.005%) then in 90 days till the end of March the infection rate would increase from 0.005% to 20%.

    Why the infected in December in California did not cause an outbreak leading to large infection rate needs serious explaining. All other blood samples should be tested. The individuals who donated the test positive blood should be interview and models should be run to determine what would be the probability of the outbreak not occurring if N individuals with such and such habits and activities were infected with covid in December. Chains of infections can be broken but when N is large the probability that all of them were broken goes to zero.

    I haven't yet encountered as serious and damaging challenge to the official narrative as the 2019 blood samples in California. As you are very well aware there is constant up hill battle which seems to be a losing battle with growing numbers of covid skeptics and their narratives. If you want to defend the official narrative you'd better find an explanation for the blood samples really quick. And if you can't explain them then covid skeptics or at least some of them must be correct: Covid is a nothing burger with negligibly low IFR and a very low R0 and all what we are witnessing must be a psycho drama.

    Replies: @Anon, @That Would Be Telling, @Travis, @vhrm

  105. @That Would Be Telling
    @utu


    Why instead of trying to think this problem through you try to dismiss it with a red hearing?
     
    Because it's a problem I'm not very interested in! Note how I haven't chimed in on any of your excellent discussion threads about this, for me they're for learning, not doing work. It's difficult epidemiology, a subject I only formally, rigorously started learning early this year, whereas I first did wet lab molecular genetics and biology work in the mid-1970s. Here, I'm just trying to give you a warning about an obvious limitation of one data set you're using, but if you'd like some help, just ask.

    Replies: @utu

    In the early stage of the epidemic in Sweden the infection rate doubling period was 7 days. I take Sweden because they had minimal countermeasures so their R0 is closer to the natural unrestricted epidemic growth. California has higher population density with several cities bigger than anything in Sweden, so unrestricted R0 in California when people are not aware that the epidemic is among them would be much greater than R0 in Sweden and thus the doubling period would be shorter than 7 days.

    Doubling period of 7 days implies 4096=2^12 multiplicative factor in 90 days where 12=90/7.

    If we assume that instead of the 1% infection rate as suggested by the Red Cross blood samples in December 2020 the infection rate in California was 200 time lower (0.005%) then in 90 days till the end of March the infection rate would increase from 0.005% to 20%.

    Why the infected in December in California did not cause an outbreak leading to large infection rate needs serious explaining. All other blood samples should be tested. The individuals who donated the test positive blood should be interview and models should be run to determine what would be the probability of the outbreak not occurring if N individuals with such and such habits and activities were infected with covid in December. Chains of infections can be broken but when N is large the probability that all of them were broken goes to zero.

    I haven’t yet encountered as serious and damaging challenge to the official narrative as the 2019 blood samples in California. As you are very well aware there is constant up hill battle which seems to be a losing battle with growing numbers of covid skeptics and their narratives. If you want to defend the official narrative you’d better find an explanation for the blood samples really quick. And if you can’t explain them then covid skeptics or at least some of them must be correct: Covid is a nothing burger with negligibly low IFR and a very low R0 and all what we are witnessing must be a psycho drama.

    • Agree: Alden
    • Replies: @Anon
    @utu

    @ Covid is a nothing burger with negligibly low IFR and a very low R0 and all what we are witnessing must be a psycho drama.

    Italian have been saying this since May, their explanation: virus is detected by tests, but people are not symptomatic. Virus is less lethal.

    I do know several cases of 50 something males that have had to go to the hospital with Covid. Without hospital care, it’s doubtful they would have survived. One with a very light case of Covid, but later a bad case of pericarditis and recently meningitis. (meningitis might be totally unrelated, of course). Don’t know ANY younger women hospitalized. Do know of three cases of over 65 yr olds who dropped dead in a couple of days. Hospitals are full, except those government ones where people stay away because they have no meds, and relatives are not allowed to bring outside meds (a common practice where I live).

    However, many people I would have expected to die: the fat poor plumber, the architect that had had a massive heart attack, the super fat corner policeman, the 60year old diabetic nanny.. they’re all still here.

    Covid does kill, in a horrible way, but it how it spreads and kills like in Lombardy needs a clearer explanation. And why do we have many vaccines and not a clear standardized home treatment?

    , @That Would Be Telling
    @utu


    I haven’t yet encountered as serious and damaging challenge to the official narrative as the 2019 blood samples in California.... If you want to defend the official narrative you’d better find an explanation for the blood samples really quick.
     
    As it turns out, I have no interest in defending the official narrative (but what does that say about my region's hospital capacity woes for 150 miles in all directions??). That said, if you were hanging your thesis on just this Red Cross/CDC study (which I understand is not the case), it's a slim reed.

    As previously noted, its a doubly self-selected population, which I have no idea how to generalize, not even pretending to be an epidemiologist, and that still seems to be the single biggest problem. The lab work was done at the CDC, which is a huge red flag, see for example their testing debacles. But this is probably a different part of the CDC.

    So assuming the lab techs didn't accidentally contaminate the Red Cross samples (possible because of their 99 true positive samples, see below), they went to a great deal of effort to double check their methods, two tests from others to confirm their positive samples, and negative controls with blood samples taken well before Corona-chan started stalking the earth, which might pick up contamination. And two of the negative sets were recent, 2016-19, 377 and 101. They also tested 99 true positives confirmed by RT-PCR. Without diving into the detailed statistics on confidence in their measurements of samples, it looks very solid, and helps to control for the fact that antibody tests are much less accurate than for example the RT-PCR gold standard, I've read they top out at 96%.

    Then we get to raw numbers: 3 Red Cross regions, Northern and Southern California, and the Pacific Northwest, defined as Oregon and Washington state. 12/508, 11/641, and 16/763. That's lots better than the top line numbers, since it massively reduces the possibility that one Californa COVID-19 cluster messed up the results. The numbers also look reasonably consistent across this large, and contact wise close to the PRC part of the US. I don't have the statistical epidemiological knowledge to know how useful these three number sets are, or the total of them, but the positive numbers are fairly small.
    , @Travis
    @utu

    In Early February, the Coronavirus Was Moving Through New York
    Antibodies appeared in blood samples taken later in the month, a new study finds.
    https://www.nytimes.com/2020/06/30/health/coronavirus-ny.html

    The study confirms estimates by epidemiologists working for New York State that roughly one in five New Yorkers had been exposed to the virus by April, a figure broadly consistent with data released on Friday by the Centers for Disease Control and Prevention.

    The similarity is even more striking, experts said, because the three studies all arrived at their estimates differently. Dr. Krammer and his colleagues analyzed plasma samples from nearly 5,500 patients who went to Mount Sinai for routine medical appointments, were seen in its emergency department or were hospitalized from the week ending Feb. 9 through the week ending April 19.

    The numbers from all three studies also agree on a crucial point: The vast majority of infections in New York City and elsewhere in the country went undiagnosed. The Mount Sinai researchers grouped their samples in different ways and analyzed them using a lab-based antibody test that is highly accurate and specific to the new coronavirus....among people who gave blood for routine appointments, or were admitted to the hospitals for reasons unrelated to the coronavirus — a group that represents the general population — fewer than 2 percent of people had antibodies until the week ending March 29. The rate rose exponentially to 19.3 % among patients seen in the week ending April 19....Nearly one in 10 pregnant women had antibodies to the virus by the week of March 29, and the number rose steadily to nearly 27% by the week ending April 19.

    Other cities, like San Francisco, have similarly shown periods when the virus seemed to percolate until something — perhaps a superspreader event — triggered an exponential rise in infections....“We’ve seen this elsewhere repeatedly, and it’s still strange to me,” Dr. Bedford said.

    Dr. Krammer is continuing to track antibodies in blood samples and plans to do so for at least a year. But he said he would not expect the prevalence to rise much above 20 percent in May or June, because infections in New York City had tapered off by then.

    Why do New Yorkers have the antibodies in June than in April ? With the number of cases going up each day during this time...the only explanation is that the antibodies only last a few months.

    Replies: @utu

    , @vhrm
    @utu


    Why the infected in December in California did not cause an outbreak leading to large infection rate needs serious explaining. All other blood samples should be tested. The individuals who donated the test positive blood should be interview and models should be run to determine what would be the probability of the outbreak not occurring if N individuals with such and such habits and activities were infected with covid in December. Chains of infections can be broken but when N is large the probability that all of them were broken goes to zero.

    I haven’t yet encountered as serious and damaging challenge to the official narrative as the 2019 blood samples in California. As you are very well aware there is constant up hill battle which seems to be a losing battle with growing numbers of covid skeptics and their narratives. If you want to defend the official narrative you’d better find an explanation for the blood samples really quick. And if you can’t explain them then covid skeptics or at least some of them must be correct: Covid is a nothing burger with negligibly low IFR and a very low R0 and all what we are witnessing must be a psycho drama.
     

    Hello! I agree with much of what you say here and you're right that various parts of the official narrative just don't add up and that that's one of the things that feeds skepticism of government explanations and especially of extraordinary government interventions.
    Come on over to our side, the water's fine! :-)

    I actually started responding to an earlier post of yours in the thread and then thought it wasn't worth it, but your burning (and warranted) skepticisms has inspired me to try again:


    We would have to revise everything what we know about the covid epidemic.

     

    Well, we still don't have a good handle on how many people had the thing in the first wave (or have it now, really). There were some anti-body based studies that estimated 10x to 20x undercount compared to "confirmed cases" in first wave.

    But then there's also conflicting info about whether you get anti-bodies and how many and for how long, especially if you have a mild case. So it's possible even that 10x to 20x is an undercount of who's had it by some unknown factor.

    (see e.g. https://bgr.com/2020/08/03/coronavirus-immunity-test-antibody-study-mild-asymptomatic-covid-19-cases/ )

    But ALSO lack of (or low) level of antibodies is not necessarily indicative of lack of immunity:

    The decline over time of the seroprevalence of antibodies to SARS-CoV-2 in the study by Bajema et al4 is neither unexpected nor alarming. For all infectious diseases, the waning of antibody titers is normal and does not necessarily indicate the loss of protective long-term immunity. Immunoglobulin G titers rise during the weeks following infection as active plasma cells secrete antibody into systemic circulation. Those titers then wane as the plasma cells actively secreting the antibodies senesce, whereas resting memory B and T lymphocytes continue to circulate for years to decades.9 These memory lymphocytes can mediate long-term immunity to infection even in the face of waning antibody titers.9 Thus, at present, no conclusions can be drawn from seroprevalence studies about the duration of immunity to SARS-CoV-2 infection. Experience with other respiratory tract viruses suggests that immunity to specific viral serotypes lasts for many years. This was the case with the H1N1 virus that caused the 1918 influenza pandemic, in which adolescent survivors experienced protection from reinfection into the tenth decade of their lives.10
     

    (from: https://jamanetwork.com/journals/jamainternalmedicine/fullarticle/2773575 )

    So "high level of antibodies" certainly indicates the person v. likely had Covid and is now immune for a while, but NOT "high level of antibodies" apparently says a lot less than i thought it did.

    (This jama article's overall point is that we're nowhere near herd immunity, but i think the author is drawing questionable conclusions from the data he's presenting. i.e. he says "antibodies aren't high enough and even declining therefore : no herd immunity" even though he then argues that loss of antibodies doesn't mean loss of immunity. And he doesn't even address the issue of people who never got antibodies or who had them and lost them and thus we don't currently detect their immunity.)

    Therefore, my brand of skepticism is, qualitatively:
    R_0 is actually pretty high and the 1st wave was much higher and more people than "the narrative" allows for have actually been exposed and thus IFR is a lot _closer_ to "it's just the flu bro" than "close the schools and lock your doors".

    That said i also continue to be shocked by the relative lack of concern at attempting to figure out just what happened / what is happening.
    In the US for the past 5 months we've apparently been PCR testing ~800k people A DAY but it's almost all related to people w/ symptoms or those exposed to them.

    Some systematic surveys and serological testing (with adequate modeling behind that) at probably like 1/1000th that size would be paying big dividends in terms of explaining what happened and what is happening.

    The CDC has guidelines and is supposedly coordinating "stuff" (https://www.cdc.gov/coronavirus/2019-ncov/covid-data/seroprevalence-types.html )

    But there are few actual results:
    (https://www.cdc.gov/coronavirus/2019-ncov/cases-updates/commercial-lab-surveys.html)

    Replies: @Jack D

  106. Anon[184] • Disclaimer says:
    @utu
    @That Would Be Telling

    In the early stage of the epidemic in Sweden the infection rate doubling period was 7 days. I take Sweden because they had minimal countermeasures so their R0 is closer to the natural unrestricted epidemic growth. California has higher population density with several cities bigger than anything in Sweden, so unrestricted R0 in California when people are not aware that the epidemic is among them would be much greater than R0 in Sweden and thus the doubling period would be shorter than 7 days.

    Doubling period of 7 days implies 4096=2^12 multiplicative factor in 90 days where 12=90/7.

    If we assume that instead of the 1% infection rate as suggested by the Red Cross blood samples in December 2020 the infection rate in California was 200 time lower (0.005%) then in 90 days till the end of March the infection rate would increase from 0.005% to 20%.

    Why the infected in December in California did not cause an outbreak leading to large infection rate needs serious explaining. All other blood samples should be tested. The individuals who donated the test positive blood should be interview and models should be run to determine what would be the probability of the outbreak not occurring if N individuals with such and such habits and activities were infected with covid in December. Chains of infections can be broken but when N is large the probability that all of them were broken goes to zero.

    I haven't yet encountered as serious and damaging challenge to the official narrative as the 2019 blood samples in California. As you are very well aware there is constant up hill battle which seems to be a losing battle with growing numbers of covid skeptics and their narratives. If you want to defend the official narrative you'd better find an explanation for the blood samples really quick. And if you can't explain them then covid skeptics or at least some of them must be correct: Covid is a nothing burger with negligibly low IFR and a very low R0 and all what we are witnessing must be a psycho drama.

    Replies: @Anon, @That Would Be Telling, @Travis, @vhrm

    @ Covid is a nothing burger with negligibly low IFR and a very low R0 and all what we are witnessing must be a psycho drama.

    Italian have been saying this since May, their explanation: virus is detected by tests, but people are not symptomatic. Virus is less lethal.

    I do know several cases of 50 something males that have had to go to the hospital with Covid. Without hospital care, it’s doubtful they would have survived. One with a very light case of Covid, but later a bad case of pericarditis and recently meningitis. (meningitis might be totally unrelated, of course). Don’t know ANY younger women hospitalized. Do know of three cases of over 65 yr olds who dropped dead in a couple of days. Hospitals are full, except those government ones where people stay away because they have no meds, and relatives are not allowed to bring outside meds (a common practice where I live).

    However, many people I would have expected to die: the fat poor plumber, the architect that had had a massive heart attack, the super fat corner policeman, the 60year old diabetic nanny.. they’re all still here.

    Covid does kill, in a horrible way, but it how it spreads and kills like in Lombardy needs a clearer explanation. And why do we have many vaccines and not a clear standardized home treatment?

  107. @Travis
    @utu

    The CDC analyzed more than 7,000 blood donations collected by the American Red Cross in nine states between Dec. 13, 2019 and Jan. 17, 2020. Of those, 106 samples tested positive for antibodies against SARS-CoV-2, the virus that causes COVID-19. https://academic.oup.com/cid/advance-article/doi/10.1093/cid/ciaa1785/6012472

    The scientists indicated it’s unlikely that the antibodies developed to curb other coronaviruses, as 84 samples were found to have neutralizing activity specific to SARS-CoV-2.
    https://www.bloomberg.com/news/articles/2020-12-01/covid-infections-found-in-u-s-in-2019-weeks-before-china-cases

    It takes up to 3 weeks to develop antibodies, so this coronavirus virus must have been circulating across America since November 2019. Over 1% of the Red Cross blood samples taken from Californians had antibodies to COVID 19 in December 2019.

    Replies: @utu, @Jack D

    I wouldn’t trust the CDC not to have screwed this up – e.g. they cross contaminated their samples. In terms of trying to make sense of the results, that would be my best guess.

    #2 guess would be Chinese sabotage of the study. I’m not usually a conspiracy theorist but China really doesn’t like being blamed for anything, including WuFlu, so I wouldn’t put this past them. China has also recently called home 1,000 Chinese “grad students” (i.e. intelligence officers/ industrial spies) because they were afraid that they were about to be swept up by the USG. Maybe they are also getting ready for their Pearl Harbor attack on Taiwan, waiting for some moment of (further) disarray and distraction in the US. They are already locking down Hong Kong.

    • Agree: Alden
    • Replies: @That Would Be Telling
    @Jack D


    I wouldn’t trust the CDC not to have screwed this up – e.g. they cross contaminated their samples. In terms of trying to make sense of the results, that would be my best guess.

     

    This is the CDC, but see my comment right after your's. And the American Red Cross is fantastically corrupt.

    #2 guess would be Chinese sabotage of the study.
     
    Urk! Didn't think of that. But it would have been done with a subtle touch, and we would expect many examples of this in other studies. The author list is:

    Sridhar V. Basavaraju MD1, Monica E. Patton MD1, Kacie Grimm2, Mohammed Ata Ur Rasheed PhD2, Sandra Lester PhD2, Lisa Mills PhD3, Megan Stumpf3, Brandi Freeman PhD1, Azaibi Tamin PhD1, Jennifer Harcourt PhD1, Jarad Schiffer MS1, Vera Semenova PhD1, Han Li PhD1, Bailey Alston MS4, Muyiwa Ategbole MPH6, Shanna Bolcen MSPH1, Darbi Boulay1, Peter Browning1, Li Cronin MS1, Ebenezer David PhD7, Rita Desai1, Monica Epperson PhD1, Yamini Gorantla PhD6, Tao Jia MS1, Panagiotis Maniatis MS1, Kimberly Moss4, Kristina Ortiz MS4, So Hee Park4, Palak Patel MS7, Yunlong Qin PhD4, Evelene Steward-Clark MS1, Heather Tatum6, Andrew Vogan MS4, Briana Zellner PhD5, Jan Drobeniuc1, Matthew RP Sapiano PhD1, Fiona Havers MD1, Carrie Reed PhD1, Susan Gerber MD1, Natalie J. Thornburg PhD1, and Susan L. Stramer PhD2

    1 Centers for Disease Control and Prevention, Atlanta GA, USA
    2 American Red Cross, Scientific Affairs, Gaithersburg, MD, USA
    3 Synergy America Inc, Atlanta GA, USA
    4 Eagle Global Scientific, Atlanta GA, USA
    5 Oak Ridge Institute for Science and Education, Oak Ridge, TN
    6 IHRC, Atlanta, GA
    7 CFD Research Corporation
     
    And others might have had access to the samples. But, again, a subtle nudge, and not as far as I know repeated elsewhere if it was done for this paper.
  108. @utu
    @That Would Be Telling

    In the early stage of the epidemic in Sweden the infection rate doubling period was 7 days. I take Sweden because they had minimal countermeasures so their R0 is closer to the natural unrestricted epidemic growth. California has higher population density with several cities bigger than anything in Sweden, so unrestricted R0 in California when people are not aware that the epidemic is among them would be much greater than R0 in Sweden and thus the doubling period would be shorter than 7 days.

    Doubling period of 7 days implies 4096=2^12 multiplicative factor in 90 days where 12=90/7.

    If we assume that instead of the 1% infection rate as suggested by the Red Cross blood samples in December 2020 the infection rate in California was 200 time lower (0.005%) then in 90 days till the end of March the infection rate would increase from 0.005% to 20%.

    Why the infected in December in California did not cause an outbreak leading to large infection rate needs serious explaining. All other blood samples should be tested. The individuals who donated the test positive blood should be interview and models should be run to determine what would be the probability of the outbreak not occurring if N individuals with such and such habits and activities were infected with covid in December. Chains of infections can be broken but when N is large the probability that all of them were broken goes to zero.

    I haven't yet encountered as serious and damaging challenge to the official narrative as the 2019 blood samples in California. As you are very well aware there is constant up hill battle which seems to be a losing battle with growing numbers of covid skeptics and their narratives. If you want to defend the official narrative you'd better find an explanation for the blood samples really quick. And if you can't explain them then covid skeptics or at least some of them must be correct: Covid is a nothing burger with negligibly low IFR and a very low R0 and all what we are witnessing must be a psycho drama.

    Replies: @Anon, @That Would Be Telling, @Travis, @vhrm

    I haven’t yet encountered as serious and damaging challenge to the official narrative as the 2019 blood samples in California…. If you want to defend the official narrative you’d better find an explanation for the blood samples really quick.

    As it turns out, I have no interest in defending the official narrative (but what does that say about my region’s hospital capacity woes for 150 miles in all directions??). That said, if you were hanging your thesis on just this Red Cross/CDC study (which I understand is not the case), it’s a slim reed.

    As previously noted, its a doubly self-selected population, which I have no idea how to generalize, not even pretending to be an epidemiologist, and that still seems to be the single biggest problem. The lab work was done at the CDC, which is a huge red flag, see for example their testing debacles. But this is probably a different part of the CDC.

    So assuming the lab techs didn’t accidentally contaminate the Red Cross samples (possible because of their 99 true positive samples, see below), they went to a great deal of effort to double check their methods, two tests from others to confirm their positive samples, and negative controls with blood samples taken well before Corona-chan started stalking the earth, which might pick up contamination. And two of the negative sets were recent, 2016-19, 377 and 101. They also tested 99 true positives confirmed by RT-PCR. Without diving into the detailed statistics on confidence in their measurements of samples, it looks very solid, and helps to control for the fact that antibody tests are much less accurate than for example the RT-PCR gold standard, I’ve read they top out at 96%.

    Then we get to raw numbers: 3 Red Cross regions, Northern and Southern California, and the Pacific Northwest, defined as Oregon and Washington state. 12/508, 11/641, and 16/763. That’s lots better than the top line numbers, since it massively reduces the possibility that one Californa COVID-19 cluster messed up the results. The numbers also look reasonably consistent across this large, and contact wise close to the PRC part of the US. I don’t have the statistical epidemiological knowledge to know how useful these three number sets are, or the total of them, but the positive numbers are fairly small.

    • Thanks: utu
  109. @Jack D
    @Travis

    I wouldn't trust the CDC not to have screwed this up - e.g. they cross contaminated their samples. In terms of trying to make sense of the results, that would be my best guess.

    #2 guess would be Chinese sabotage of the study. I'm not usually a conspiracy theorist but China really doesn't like being blamed for anything, including WuFlu, so I wouldn't put this past them. China has also recently called home 1,000 Chinese "grad students" (i.e. intelligence officers/ industrial spies) because they were afraid that they were about to be swept up by the USG. Maybe they are also getting ready for their Pearl Harbor attack on Taiwan, waiting for some moment of (further) disarray and distraction in the US. They are already locking down Hong Kong.

    Replies: @That Would Be Telling

    I wouldn’t trust the CDC not to have screwed this up – e.g. they cross contaminated their samples. In terms of trying to make sense of the results, that would be my best guess.

    This is the CDC, but see my comment right after your’s. And the American Red Cross is fantastically corrupt.

    #2 guess would be Chinese sabotage of the study.

    Urk! Didn’t think of that. But it would have been done with a subtle touch, and we would expect many examples of this in other studies. The author list is:

    Sridhar V. Basavaraju MD1, Monica E. Patton MD1, Kacie Grimm2, Mohammed Ata Ur Rasheed PhD2, Sandra Lester PhD2, Lisa Mills PhD3, Megan Stumpf3, Brandi Freeman PhD1, Azaibi Tamin PhD1, Jennifer Harcourt PhD1, Jarad Schiffer MS1, Vera Semenova PhD1, Han Li PhD1, Bailey Alston MS4, Muyiwa Ategbole MPH6, Shanna Bolcen MSPH1, Darbi Boulay1, Peter Browning1, Li Cronin MS1, Ebenezer David PhD7, Rita Desai1, Monica Epperson PhD1, Yamini Gorantla PhD6, Tao Jia MS1, Panagiotis Maniatis MS1, Kimberly Moss4, Kristina Ortiz MS4, So Hee Park4, Palak Patel MS7, Yunlong Qin PhD4, Evelene Steward-Clark MS1, Heather Tatum6, Andrew Vogan MS4, Briana Zellner PhD5, Jan Drobeniuc1, Matthew RP Sapiano PhD1, Fiona Havers MD1, Carrie Reed PhD1, Susan Gerber MD1, Natalie J. Thornburg PhD1, and Susan L. Stramer PhD2

    1 Centers for Disease Control and Prevention, Atlanta GA, USA
    2 American Red Cross, Scientific Affairs, Gaithersburg, MD, USA
    3 Synergy America Inc, Atlanta GA, USA
    4 Eagle Global Scientific, Atlanta GA, USA
    5 Oak Ridge Institute for Science and Education, Oak Ridge, TN
    6 IHRC, Atlanta, GA
    7 CFD Research Corporation

    And others might have had access to the samples. But, again, a subtle nudge, and not as far as I know repeated elsewhere if it was done for this paper.

  110. @Adam Smith
    Good afternoon everyone,

    I hope this message finds you well...

    Recently vaccinated people spread disease.

    Please quarantine yourself for a month after you receive a jab.



    Physicians and public health officials know that recently vaccinated individuals can spread disease and that contact with the immunocompromised can be especially dangerous.

    WHO and UNICEF said in a joint statement the polio outbreak in the Philippines is concerning because it is caused by vaccine-derived poliovirus type 2.

    Nearly all the cases of polio in the modern world are caused by polio vaccines.

    In 2011, a team of scientists looked specifically at how the shingles vaccine spreads the virus that causes chickenpox infection. The paper, authored by Duane L. Pierson, is titled, Varicella Zoster Virus DNA at Inoculation Sites and in Saliva After Zostavax Immunization.

    The study looked at 36 individuals over the age of 60 who were recently vaccinated with Zostavax (shingles vaccine). Before the vaccine, saliva samples were taken; none contained pathogenic material. After the vaccine was administered, 50 percent of the recipients tested positive for varicella zoster virus, a neurotropic alphaherpesvirus that causes varicella (chickenpox) in children. In the 28 day follow-up period, the researchers would go on to detect varicella in 58 percent of the recipients. At day fourteen, 31 percent of the recipients tested positive for VZV DNA. At day twenty-one, 28 percent were still carrying the virus. At the end of the month, all but two recipients had eliminated the virus from their system.

    The study authors warn that “the detection of VZV DNA in saliva of Zostavax recipients for up to 28 days suggests that contact with saliva of recently immunized individuals represents a potential source of transmission.”

    A fully vaccinated 22-year-old theater employee in New York City who developed the measles in 2011 was released without hospitalization or quarantine. But like Typhoid Mary, this patient turned out to be unwittingly contagious. Ultimately, she transmitted the measles to four other people, according to a recent report in Clinical Infectious Diseases that tracked symptoms in the 88 people with whom “Measles Mary” interacted while she was sick. Surprisingly, two of the secondary patients had been fully vaccinated. And although the other two had no record of receiving the vaccine, they both showed signs of previous measles exposure that should have conferred immunity.

    People who receive flu shots emit 6.3 times more flu virus particles into the air, compared to non-vaccinated individuals.

    Whooping cough resurgence due to vaccinated people not knowing they're infectious?

    In late spring 2009, concern was raised in Canada that prior vaccination with the 2008–09 trivalent inactivated influenza vaccine was associated with increased risk of pandemic influenza A (H1N1) illness. Several epidemiological investigations were conducted through the summer to assess this association. Researchers came to the conclusion that prior receipt of 2008–09 trivalent inactivated influenza vaccine was associated with increased risk of medically attended influenza A (H1N1) illness during the spring–summer 2009 in Canada.

    Flu Shot Raises Risk of Coronavirus by 36%

    2012 Hong Kong Study: Flu shots increased the risk of non-flu respiratory infections 4.4 times and tripled flu infections.

    Vaccinated children are 5.9 more likely to suffer pneumonia and 30.1 times more likely to have been diagnosed with Allergic Rhinitis than unvaccinated children.

    Vaccination before 1 year of age is associated with increased odds of developmental delays, asthma and ear infections.

    In other news, unvaccinated Children Pose ZERO Risk to Anyone

    Please be responsible. Please don't spread disease.

    I hope everyone has a great evening...

    Replies: @That Would Be Telling, @Jack D

    That can be true in the case of “attenuated live virus” type vaccines such as the Sabin polio vaccine. However, none of the currently proposed Covid vaccines involve injecting you with live Covid virus, only with bits and pieces of it, so there’s absolutely no way you could get Covid from the vaccine or give it to anyone else.

    There is some small (but not currently defined) risk that after getting the vaccine you might get infected with Covid from elsewhere and not come down with any symptoms but still be infectious to others for some time. However, if everyone (or a lot of people) get the vaccine we will achieve herd immunity and covid will stop circulating in the community even if this is true for some % of the vaccinated (just as it makes no difference that 5% of the vaccinated don’t get full immunity themselves).

    The level of ignorance and misinformation that is being circulated is unbelievable. I feel like we are living in Medieval times sometimes.

    • Replies: @That Would Be Telling
    @Jack D


    The level of ignorance and misinformation that is being circulated is unbelievable. I feel like we are living in Medieval times sometimes.
     
    A better reaction would be to realize we're not at all advanced from people in Medieval times all the way back to pretty ancient times. According to a sort of a lecture I heard in the late 1970s, Egyptians who built the pyramids with quite a bit of crowding of farmers who were waiting for the Nile to recede, fed them plenty of onions and some other vegetable that discouraged disease.

    Replies: @Jack D

    , @Adam Smith
    @Jack D

    Good afternoon Mr. D,

    I hope this message finds you well.


    The level of ignorance and misinformation that is being circulated is unbelievable.
     
    I couldn't agree more!

    So much misinformation.
    So many people passionately discussing that which we don't truly understand.

    ...so there’s absolutely no way you could get Covid from the vaccine or give it to anyone else.
     
    You seem overly certain of this. I remain skeptical. Even the CEO of Pfizer says he is not certain their COVID-19 shot will prevent vaccinated people from spreading the virus.

    The flu shot is not a live vaccine and yet it spreads the flu virus.

    The acellular pertussis vaccine is not a live vaccine and yet it causes asymptomatic transmission that has caused outbreaks.

    I noticed in one of your comments you likened the use of herbal medicine to witchcraft. This seems misguided to me as many pharmaceutical compounds are concentrated and synthesized from plants.

    Many plants are medicinal. For example, the bark of several varieties of willow tree have been used for centuries as a pain reliever. The active ingredient in the medicine made from willow bark is called salicin. Some people use willow bark as an alternative to aspirin, particularly those that experience chronic headaches or back pain. Aspirin is acetylsalicylic acid and is a synthetic salicylate. Naturally occurring salicylates with analgesic and antipyretic properties are salicin, present in the bark of the willow tree, and methylsalicylate, which is found in oil of wintergreen.

    Cacao is packed with antioxidants. Garlic is useful for several conditions linked to the blood system and heart, including atherosclerosis (hardening of the arteries), high cholesterol, heart attack, coronary heart disease, and hypertension. Garlic is also a powerful anti-fungal. Cayenne peppers and hawthorn berries are good for the heart. I use cayenne pepper to heal cuts that would otherwise require stitches. Yes, it's hot. Yes, it works. Yes, it leaves less scarring than stitches.

    Surely we can agree that poppies and foxglove both contain powerful medicine?

    The Shingrix vaccine is not a live vaccine. (Unlike Zostavax and Varivax which contain WI38 and MRC5.)

    Do you know that Shingrix ingredients include "genetically engineered Chinese Hamster Ovary cells"? You can read the Shingrix vaccine insert here. Check out page 11 to learn more about the gE antigen obtained by culturing genetically engineered Chinese Hamster Ovary cells.

    Vaccines seem more like witchcraft to me than do plants and herbs. I'd feel safer if vaccines contained eye of newt than human diploid cells from aborted fetuses and genetically engineered Chinese Hamster Ovary cells. (Eye of newt is the folk name for mustard seed.)

    You clearly have great faith in the safety and efficacy of vaccines. My grandfather died of complications from a flu jab, so my faith in their safety is not as strong as yours. Some people lose at the game of vaccine roulette. Vaccine injury is real.

    The science is not settled on the safety or efficacy of vaccines. There is still much to be learned. I believe there are often better and safer options to ensure the overall health of our society. Believe me when I say that I want nothing but the best for the health and wellbeing of us all.

    I hope you have a great day Mr. D.

  111. @Jack D
    @Adam Smith

    That can be true in the case of "attenuated live virus" type vaccines such as the Sabin polio vaccine. However, none of the currently proposed Covid vaccines involve injecting you with live Covid virus, only with bits and pieces of it, so there's absolutely no way you could get Covid from the vaccine or give it to anyone else.

    There is some small (but not currently defined) risk that after getting the vaccine you might get infected with Covid from elsewhere and not come down with any symptoms but still be infectious to others for some time. However, if everyone (or a lot of people) get the vaccine we will achieve herd immunity and covid will stop circulating in the community even if this is true for some % of the vaccinated (just as it makes no difference that 5% of the vaccinated don't get full immunity themselves).

    The level of ignorance and misinformation that is being circulated is unbelievable. I feel like we are living in Medieval times sometimes.

    Replies: @That Would Be Telling, @Adam Smith

    The level of ignorance and misinformation that is being circulated is unbelievable. I feel like we are living in Medieval times sometimes.

    A better reaction would be to realize we’re not at all advanced from people in Medieval times all the way back to pretty ancient times. According to a sort of a lecture I heard in the late 1970s, Egyptians who built the pyramids with quite a bit of crowding of farmers who were waiting for the Nile to recede, fed them plenty of onions and some other vegetable that discouraged disease.

    • Replies: @Jack D
    @That Would Be Telling

    Probably a lot of them died anyway but in those days no one cared.

    In Exodus, when the Israelites are wandering in the desert, they kvetch to Moses (Jews have been doing this for a LONG time), "We remember the fish, which we did eat in Egypt freely, the cucumbers and the melons and the leeks and the onions and the garlic."

    These are all things that require a lot of water to grow, which Egypt had because of Nile, but which you can't get in the desert.

    Replies: @Alden

  112. @utu
    @That Would Be Telling

    In the early stage of the epidemic in Sweden the infection rate doubling period was 7 days. I take Sweden because they had minimal countermeasures so their R0 is closer to the natural unrestricted epidemic growth. California has higher population density with several cities bigger than anything in Sweden, so unrestricted R0 in California when people are not aware that the epidemic is among them would be much greater than R0 in Sweden and thus the doubling period would be shorter than 7 days.

    Doubling period of 7 days implies 4096=2^12 multiplicative factor in 90 days where 12=90/7.

    If we assume that instead of the 1% infection rate as suggested by the Red Cross blood samples in December 2020 the infection rate in California was 200 time lower (0.005%) then in 90 days till the end of March the infection rate would increase from 0.005% to 20%.

    Why the infected in December in California did not cause an outbreak leading to large infection rate needs serious explaining. All other blood samples should be tested. The individuals who donated the test positive blood should be interview and models should be run to determine what would be the probability of the outbreak not occurring if N individuals with such and such habits and activities were infected with covid in December. Chains of infections can be broken but when N is large the probability that all of them were broken goes to zero.

    I haven't yet encountered as serious and damaging challenge to the official narrative as the 2019 blood samples in California. As you are very well aware there is constant up hill battle which seems to be a losing battle with growing numbers of covid skeptics and their narratives. If you want to defend the official narrative you'd better find an explanation for the blood samples really quick. And if you can't explain them then covid skeptics or at least some of them must be correct: Covid is a nothing burger with negligibly low IFR and a very low R0 and all what we are witnessing must be a psycho drama.

    Replies: @Anon, @That Would Be Telling, @Travis, @vhrm

    In Early February, the Coronavirus Was Moving Through New York
    Antibodies appeared in blood samples taken later in the month, a new study finds.
    https://www.nytimes.com/2020/06/30/health/coronavirus-ny.html

    The study confirms estimates by epidemiologists working for New York State that roughly one in five New Yorkers had been exposed to the virus by April, a figure broadly consistent with data released on Friday by the Centers for Disease Control and Prevention.

    The similarity is even more striking, experts said, because the three studies all arrived at their estimates differently. Dr. Krammer and his colleagues analyzed plasma samples from nearly 5,500 patients who went to Mount Sinai for routine medical appointments, were seen in its emergency department or were hospitalized from the week ending Feb. 9 through the week ending April 19.

    The numbers from all three studies also agree on a crucial point: The vast majority of infections in New York City and elsewhere in the country went undiagnosed. The Mount Sinai researchers grouped their samples in different ways and analyzed them using a lab-based antibody test that is highly accurate and specific to the new coronavirus….among people who gave blood for routine appointments, or were admitted to the hospitals for reasons unrelated to the coronavirus — a group that represents the general population — fewer than 2 percent of people had antibodies until the week ending March 29. The rate rose exponentially to 19.3 % among patients seen in the week ending April 19….Nearly one in 10 pregnant women had antibodies to the virus by the week of March 29, and the number rose steadily to nearly 27% by the week ending April 19.

    Other cities, like San Francisco, have similarly shown periods when the virus seemed to percolate until something — perhaps a superspreader event — triggered an exponential rise in infections….“We’ve seen this elsewhere repeatedly, and it’s still strange to me,” Dr. Bedford said.

    Dr. Krammer is continuing to track antibodies in blood samples and plans to do so for at least a year. But he said he would not expect the prevalence to rise much above 20 percent in May or June, because infections in New York City had tapered off by then.

    Why do New Yorkers have the antibodies in June than in April ? With the number of cases going up each day during this time…the only explanation is that the antibodies only last a few months.

    • Thanks: utu
    • Replies: @utu
    @Travis

    There is a possibility that the Red Cross samples study might have many false positives.

    https://www.unz.com/mwhitney/heres-why-you-should-skip-the-covid-vaccine/#comment-4327739

    Only one sample had S1-test positive which is not cross-active with antibodies for other viruses.

  113. @That Would Be Telling
    @Jack D


    The level of ignorance and misinformation that is being circulated is unbelievable. I feel like we are living in Medieval times sometimes.
     
    A better reaction would be to realize we're not at all advanced from people in Medieval times all the way back to pretty ancient times. According to a sort of a lecture I heard in the late 1970s, Egyptians who built the pyramids with quite a bit of crowding of farmers who were waiting for the Nile to recede, fed them plenty of onions and some other vegetable that discouraged disease.

    Replies: @Jack D

    Probably a lot of them died anyway but in those days no one cared.

    In Exodus, when the Israelites are wandering in the desert, they kvetch to Moses (Jews have been doing this for a LONG time), “We remember the fish, which we did eat in Egypt freely, the cucumbers and the melons and the leeks and the onions and the garlic.”

    These are all things that require a lot of water to grow, which Egypt had because of Nile, but which you can’t get in the desert.

    • Replies: @Alden
    @Jack D

    It’s only about 220-250 miles from the pyramids to Tel Aviv. So why did it take 40 years to get to the promised land? Even at 5 miles a day and resting on the sabbath it should have taken about 3 1/2 months to get there.

    I remember looking at the map of the Middle East during Sunday school class and thinking hmmmm. Both my cynicism and love of art color and beauty come from Sunday school. They had big colorful posters of bible scenes, loved them. Then there were the stories, sadistic and ridiculous.

    Replies: @Jack D

  114. Here’s my theory. The entire thing is a hoax. The vaccine is nothing but normal saline. No research was done Re this non existent disease. There is no truthful information out there to be found.

    We’ll be wearing masks and locked down for years. Until TPTB come up with a new lie for us ignorant masses.

    I haven’t figured who benefits yet other than online shopping and delivery companies.

  115. @Elli
    @Bill

    I went to one medical practice that didn't take insurance. Three doctors, one secretary for appointments and bills . The doctors took vitals.

    Now I go to a medical practice that does take insurance. One doctor, one medical assistant who takes vitals, does EKGs and gives injections, one MA who takes dictation and enters medical notes during the exam, one appointments secretary, one medical coding clerk who codes the visits and enters them into the larger billing/hospital network system with which the doctor is affiliated. All of them are busy.

    Has there ever been a report on how much billing and insurance/Medicare/Medicaid compliance costs? I suspect at least 30% of the whole. It's an evolutionary arms race between providers and payers.

    Replies: @Seneca44, @Alden

    Dr friends tell me chasing the insurance companies for payment is about 40 percent of the cost of a practice. Then there’s the DEA. Even the mildest pain killer prescription requires faxes, faxes to 4 or 5 different places. That’s what the clerks do all day.

  116. @Art Deco
    @Jack D

    and then much less among the heavily minority orderlies, etc. who actually make up the bulk of “healthcare workers”. Probably there will be a point where doses are just sitting in the freezer or even going to waste and then they will give up and open the vaccine to the next level of priority.

    1. Are black mothers refusing DPT and polio vaccines for their kids? How many and where?

    2. About 1/4 of those in 'healthcare support occupations' are black, with the largest share to be found among nurse's aides and home health aides. Is it really your contention that they're planning to endanger their jobs by refusing innoculations?

    Replies: @Jack D

    It it your contention that healthcare workers will be forced to undergo vaccination as a condition of keeping their jobs? And if so, based on what?

    • Replies: @Alden
    @Jack D

    Not just health care workers but everyone who works in hospitals nursing homes etc must have a current negative TB test, from CFO to parking lot attendants. I don’t see why covid hoax vaccines will be any different.

    People get used to workplace rules, like long hair in ponytails and buns, goggles hard hats work boots, dieting and make up if you’re a model or dancer, good quality suits heels hose and ties if you go to court a lot

    Plus, health care workers tend to believe in conventional medicine. Even blacks from the deepest swamps of Louisiana. I doubt health care workers will make a fuss.

  117. @Jack D
    @Adam Smith

    That can be true in the case of "attenuated live virus" type vaccines such as the Sabin polio vaccine. However, none of the currently proposed Covid vaccines involve injecting you with live Covid virus, only with bits and pieces of it, so there's absolutely no way you could get Covid from the vaccine or give it to anyone else.

    There is some small (but not currently defined) risk that after getting the vaccine you might get infected with Covid from elsewhere and not come down with any symptoms but still be infectious to others for some time. However, if everyone (or a lot of people) get the vaccine we will achieve herd immunity and covid will stop circulating in the community even if this is true for some % of the vaccinated (just as it makes no difference that 5% of the vaccinated don't get full immunity themselves).

    The level of ignorance and misinformation that is being circulated is unbelievable. I feel like we are living in Medieval times sometimes.

    Replies: @That Would Be Telling, @Adam Smith

    Good afternoon Mr. D,

    I hope this message finds you well.

    The level of ignorance and misinformation that is being circulated is unbelievable.

    I couldn’t agree more!

    So much misinformation.
    So many people passionately discussing that which we don’t truly understand.

    …so there’s absolutely no way you could get Covid from the vaccine or give it to anyone else.

    You seem overly certain of this. I remain skeptical. Even the CEO of Pfizer says he is not certain their COVID-19 shot will prevent vaccinated people from spreading the virus.

    The flu shot is not a live vaccine and yet it spreads the flu virus.

    The acellular pertussis vaccine is not a live vaccine and yet it causes asymptomatic transmission that has caused outbreaks.

    I noticed in one of your comments you likened the use of herbal medicine to witchcraft. This seems misguided to me as many pharmaceutical compounds are concentrated and synthesized from plants.

    Many plants are medicinal. For example, the bark of several varieties of willow tree have been used for centuries as a pain reliever. The active ingredient in the medicine made from willow bark is called salicin. Some people use willow bark as an alternative to aspirin, particularly those that experience chronic headaches or back pain. Aspirin is acetylsalicylic acid and is a synthetic salicylate. Naturally occurring salicylates with analgesic and antipyretic properties are salicin, present in the bark of the willow tree, and methylsalicylate, which is found in oil of wintergreen.

    Cacao is packed with antioxidants. Garlic is useful for several conditions linked to the blood system and heart, including atherosclerosis (hardening of the arteries), high cholesterol, heart attack, coronary heart disease, and hypertension. Garlic is also a powerful anti-fungal. Cayenne peppers and hawthorn berries are good for the heart. I use cayenne pepper to heal cuts that would otherwise require stitches. Yes, it’s hot. Yes, it works. Yes, it leaves less scarring than stitches.

    Surely we can agree that poppies and foxglove both contain powerful medicine?

    The Shingrix vaccine is not a live vaccine. (Unlike Zostavax and Varivax which contain WI38 and MRC5.)

    Do you know that Shingrix ingredients include “genetically engineered Chinese Hamster Ovary cells”? You can read the Shingrix vaccine insert here. Check out page 11 to learn more about the gE antigen obtained by culturing genetically engineered Chinese Hamster Ovary cells.

    Vaccines seem more like witchcraft to me than do plants and herbs. I’d feel safer if vaccines contained eye of newt than human diploid cells from aborted fetuses and genetically engineered Chinese Hamster Ovary cells. (Eye of newt is the folk name for mustard seed.)

    You clearly have great faith in the safety and efficacy of vaccines. My grandfather died of complications from a flu jab, so my faith in their safety is not as strong as yours. Some people lose at the game of vaccine roulette. Vaccine injury is real.

    The science is not settled on the safety or efficacy of vaccines. There is still much to be learned. I believe there are often better and safer options to ensure the overall health of our society. Believe me when I say that I want nothing but the best for the health and wellbeing of us all.

    I hope you have a great day Mr. D.

  118. @Thomas Defelstrock
    @Barack Obama's secret Unz account

    Doctors are all specialists and specialists tend to be very ignorant of anything out of their specific field. Being a doctor of internal medicine is mostly about knowing what the book says you are supposed to do. These are the same people who not too long ago were telling everyone to eat hydrogenated margarine on white bread as a healthy snack. Before that they were telling people to smoke cigarettes. Basically doctors are morons. Very few of them know enough statistics to understand the results of a vaccine trial.

    Replies: @Barack Obama's secret Unz account, @Art Deco, @Alden

    Wait till you get seriously sick or chopped up in a car or industrial accident and need to be repaired by a surgeon and his her team of expert assistants.

  119. @utu
    @That Would Be Telling

    In the early stage of the epidemic in Sweden the infection rate doubling period was 7 days. I take Sweden because they had minimal countermeasures so their R0 is closer to the natural unrestricted epidemic growth. California has higher population density with several cities bigger than anything in Sweden, so unrestricted R0 in California when people are not aware that the epidemic is among them would be much greater than R0 in Sweden and thus the doubling period would be shorter than 7 days.

    Doubling period of 7 days implies 4096=2^12 multiplicative factor in 90 days where 12=90/7.

    If we assume that instead of the 1% infection rate as suggested by the Red Cross blood samples in December 2020 the infection rate in California was 200 time lower (0.005%) then in 90 days till the end of March the infection rate would increase from 0.005% to 20%.

    Why the infected in December in California did not cause an outbreak leading to large infection rate needs serious explaining. All other blood samples should be tested. The individuals who donated the test positive blood should be interview and models should be run to determine what would be the probability of the outbreak not occurring if N individuals with such and such habits and activities were infected with covid in December. Chains of infections can be broken but when N is large the probability that all of them were broken goes to zero.

    I haven't yet encountered as serious and damaging challenge to the official narrative as the 2019 blood samples in California. As you are very well aware there is constant up hill battle which seems to be a losing battle with growing numbers of covid skeptics and their narratives. If you want to defend the official narrative you'd better find an explanation for the blood samples really quick. And if you can't explain them then covid skeptics or at least some of them must be correct: Covid is a nothing burger with negligibly low IFR and a very low R0 and all what we are witnessing must be a psycho drama.

    Replies: @Anon, @That Would Be Telling, @Travis, @vhrm

    Why the infected in December in California did not cause an outbreak leading to large infection rate needs serious explaining. All other blood samples should be tested. The individuals who donated the test positive blood should be interview and models should be run to determine what would be the probability of the outbreak not occurring if N individuals with such and such habits and activities were infected with covid in December. Chains of infections can be broken but when N is large the probability that all of them were broken goes to zero.

    I haven’t yet encountered as serious and damaging challenge to the official narrative as the 2019 blood samples in California. As you are very well aware there is constant up hill battle which seems to be a losing battle with growing numbers of covid skeptics and their narratives. If you want to defend the official narrative you’d better find an explanation for the blood samples really quick. And if you can’t explain them then covid skeptics or at least some of them must be correct: Covid is a nothing burger with negligibly low IFR and a very low R0 and all what we are witnessing must be a psycho drama.

    Hello! I agree with much of what you say here and you’re right that various parts of the official narrative just don’t add up and that that’s one of the things that feeds skepticism of government explanations and especially of extraordinary government interventions.
    Come on over to our side, the water’s fine! 🙂

    I actually started responding to an earlier post of yours in the thread and then thought it wasn’t worth it, but your burning (and warranted) skepticisms has inspired me to try again:

    We would have to revise everything what we know about the covid epidemic.

    Well, we still don’t have a good handle on how many people had the thing in the first wave (or have it now, really). There were some anti-body based studies that estimated 10x to 20x undercount compared to “confirmed cases” in first wave.

    But then there’s also conflicting info about whether you get anti-bodies and how many and for how long, especially if you have a mild case. So it’s possible even that 10x to 20x is an undercount of who’s had it by some unknown factor.

    (see e.g. https://bgr.com/2020/08/03/coronavirus-immunity-test-antibody-study-mild-asymptomatic-covid-19-cases/ )

    But ALSO lack of (or low) level of antibodies is not necessarily indicative of lack of immunity:

    The decline over time of the seroprevalence of antibodies to SARS-CoV-2 in the study by Bajema et al4 is neither unexpected nor alarming. For all infectious diseases, the waning of antibody titers is normal and does not necessarily indicate the loss of protective long-term immunity. Immunoglobulin G titers rise during the weeks following infection as active plasma cells secrete antibody into systemic circulation. Those titers then wane as the plasma cells actively secreting the antibodies senesce, whereas resting memory B and T lymphocytes continue to circulate for years to decades.9 These memory lymphocytes can mediate long-term immunity to infection even in the face of waning antibody titers.9 Thus, at present, no conclusions can be drawn from seroprevalence studies about the duration of immunity to SARS-CoV-2 infection. Experience with other respiratory tract viruses suggests that immunity to specific viral serotypes lasts for many years. This was the case with the H1N1 virus that caused the 1918 influenza pandemic, in which adolescent survivors experienced protection from reinfection into the tenth decade of their lives.10

    (from: https://jamanetwork.com/journals/jamainternalmedicine/fullarticle/2773575 )

    So “high level of antibodies” certainly indicates the person v. likely had Covid and is now immune for a while, but NOT “high level of antibodies” apparently says a lot less than i thought it did.

    (This jama article’s overall point is that we’re nowhere near herd immunity, but i think the author is drawing questionable conclusions from the data he’s presenting. i.e. he says “antibodies aren’t high enough and even declining therefore : no herd immunity” even though he then argues that loss of antibodies doesn’t mean loss of immunity. And he doesn’t even address the issue of people who never got antibodies or who had them and lost them and thus we don’t currently detect their immunity.)

    Therefore, my brand of skepticism is, qualitatively:
    R_0 is actually pretty high and the 1st wave was much higher and more people than “the narrative” allows for have actually been exposed and thus IFR is a lot _closer_ to “it’s just the flu bro” than “close the schools and lock your doors”.

    That said i also continue to be shocked by the relative lack of concern at attempting to figure out just what happened / what is happening.
    In the US for the past 5 months we’ve apparently been PCR testing ~800k people A DAY but it’s almost all related to people w/ symptoms or those exposed to them.

    Some systematic surveys and serological testing (with adequate modeling behind that) at probably like 1/1000th that size would be paying big dividends in terms of explaining what happened and what is happening.

    The CDC has guidelines and is supposedly coordinating “stuff” (https://www.cdc.gov/coronavirus/2019-ncov/covid-data/seroprevalence-types.html )

    But there are few actual results:
    (https://www.cdc.gov/coronavirus/2019-ncov/cases-updates/commercial-lab-surveys.html)

    • Thanks: utu
    • Replies: @Jack D
    @vhrm

    The CDC really sucks and we should have had a much better understanding of the disease by now. But some of your assumptions are impossible - if what you say is true then everyone should have had this by now and the disease should be receding due to herd immunity. And we are just not seeing that, even in the places that were hardest hit in the 1st wave. And even if it is "just the flu" to most people under say 50, there are a lot of people OVER 50 or with comorbidities for which this is not "just the flu" - the flu goes thru nursing homes every year but it doesn't clear out half the population. The excess death numbers are real and put the lie to just the flu, even if the average age of death is quite high.

    This doesn't mean that our government didn't royally fark up its approach either. It could be (IS) much more than just the flu and yet our response could have been very different - e.g. isolating vulnerable elderly populations such as nursing home residents rather than shutting down elementary schools, etc. And BTW, even if it is just the flu, we still have flu vaccines (although not very good ones). Covid doesn't have to be the Black Death in order for it to be a good idea to get vaccinated.

    The US is like a once luxurious car that is getting old and worn out. Some of the accessories no longer work at all and other parts are rusty or creaky. Some of the original parts have been replaced with cheap, low quality imported parts. So it's not surprising that we can't cope with potholes as well as we once could.

  120. @Jack D
    @Art Deco

    It it your contention that healthcare workers will be forced to undergo vaccination as a condition of keeping their jobs? And if so, based on what?

    Replies: @Alden

    Not just health care workers but everyone who works in hospitals nursing homes etc must have a current negative TB test, from CFO to parking lot attendants. I don’t see why covid hoax vaccines will be any different.

    People get used to workplace rules, like long hair in ponytails and buns, goggles hard hats work boots, dieting and make up if you’re a model or dancer, good quality suits heels hose and ties if you go to court a lot

    Plus, health care workers tend to believe in conventional medicine. Even blacks from the deepest swamps of Louisiana. I doubt health care workers will make a fuss.

  121. @Jack D
    @That Would Be Telling

    Probably a lot of them died anyway but in those days no one cared.

    In Exodus, when the Israelites are wandering in the desert, they kvetch to Moses (Jews have been doing this for a LONG time), "We remember the fish, which we did eat in Egypt freely, the cucumbers and the melons and the leeks and the onions and the garlic."

    These are all things that require a lot of water to grow, which Egypt had because of Nile, but which you can't get in the desert.

    Replies: @Alden

    It’s only about 220-250 miles from the pyramids to Tel Aviv. So why did it take 40 years to get to the promised land? Even at 5 miles a day and resting on the sabbath it should have taken about 3 1/2 months to get there.

    I remember looking at the map of the Middle East during Sunday school class and thinking hmmmm. Both my cynicism and love of art color and beauty come from Sunday school. They had big colorful posters of bible scenes, loved them. Then there were the stories, sadistic and ridiculous.

    • Agree: Adam Smith
    • Replies: @Jack D
    @Alden

    It wasn't a question of travel time, it was a question of slave mentality. The Israelites who had lived in Egypt had a slave mentality and were not suited to being a free people. "Where's my free onions?" they ask in this very episode. So Moses decided that he had to wait a couple of generation until they had been replaced by people without a slave mentality. 40 years in the desert boot camp will tough you up for nation building.

    We can see here in America that blacks have been free for one hundred and forty years and they STILL have a slave mentality.

    Replies: @Art Deco

  122. @vhrm
    @utu


    Why the infected in December in California did not cause an outbreak leading to large infection rate needs serious explaining. All other blood samples should be tested. The individuals who donated the test positive blood should be interview and models should be run to determine what would be the probability of the outbreak not occurring if N individuals with such and such habits and activities were infected with covid in December. Chains of infections can be broken but when N is large the probability that all of them were broken goes to zero.

    I haven’t yet encountered as serious and damaging challenge to the official narrative as the 2019 blood samples in California. As you are very well aware there is constant up hill battle which seems to be a losing battle with growing numbers of covid skeptics and their narratives. If you want to defend the official narrative you’d better find an explanation for the blood samples really quick. And if you can’t explain them then covid skeptics or at least some of them must be correct: Covid is a nothing burger with negligibly low IFR and a very low R0 and all what we are witnessing must be a psycho drama.
     

    Hello! I agree with much of what you say here and you're right that various parts of the official narrative just don't add up and that that's one of the things that feeds skepticism of government explanations and especially of extraordinary government interventions.
    Come on over to our side, the water's fine! :-)

    I actually started responding to an earlier post of yours in the thread and then thought it wasn't worth it, but your burning (and warranted) skepticisms has inspired me to try again:


    We would have to revise everything what we know about the covid epidemic.

     

    Well, we still don't have a good handle on how many people had the thing in the first wave (or have it now, really). There were some anti-body based studies that estimated 10x to 20x undercount compared to "confirmed cases" in first wave.

    But then there's also conflicting info about whether you get anti-bodies and how many and for how long, especially if you have a mild case. So it's possible even that 10x to 20x is an undercount of who's had it by some unknown factor.

    (see e.g. https://bgr.com/2020/08/03/coronavirus-immunity-test-antibody-study-mild-asymptomatic-covid-19-cases/ )

    But ALSO lack of (or low) level of antibodies is not necessarily indicative of lack of immunity:

    The decline over time of the seroprevalence of antibodies to SARS-CoV-2 in the study by Bajema et al4 is neither unexpected nor alarming. For all infectious diseases, the waning of antibody titers is normal and does not necessarily indicate the loss of protective long-term immunity. Immunoglobulin G titers rise during the weeks following infection as active plasma cells secrete antibody into systemic circulation. Those titers then wane as the plasma cells actively secreting the antibodies senesce, whereas resting memory B and T lymphocytes continue to circulate for years to decades.9 These memory lymphocytes can mediate long-term immunity to infection even in the face of waning antibody titers.9 Thus, at present, no conclusions can be drawn from seroprevalence studies about the duration of immunity to SARS-CoV-2 infection. Experience with other respiratory tract viruses suggests that immunity to specific viral serotypes lasts for many years. This was the case with the H1N1 virus that caused the 1918 influenza pandemic, in which adolescent survivors experienced protection from reinfection into the tenth decade of their lives.10
     

    (from: https://jamanetwork.com/journals/jamainternalmedicine/fullarticle/2773575 )

    So "high level of antibodies" certainly indicates the person v. likely had Covid and is now immune for a while, but NOT "high level of antibodies" apparently says a lot less than i thought it did.

    (This jama article's overall point is that we're nowhere near herd immunity, but i think the author is drawing questionable conclusions from the data he's presenting. i.e. he says "antibodies aren't high enough and even declining therefore : no herd immunity" even though he then argues that loss of antibodies doesn't mean loss of immunity. And he doesn't even address the issue of people who never got antibodies or who had them and lost them and thus we don't currently detect their immunity.)

    Therefore, my brand of skepticism is, qualitatively:
    R_0 is actually pretty high and the 1st wave was much higher and more people than "the narrative" allows for have actually been exposed and thus IFR is a lot _closer_ to "it's just the flu bro" than "close the schools and lock your doors".

    That said i also continue to be shocked by the relative lack of concern at attempting to figure out just what happened / what is happening.
    In the US for the past 5 months we've apparently been PCR testing ~800k people A DAY but it's almost all related to people w/ symptoms or those exposed to them.

    Some systematic surveys and serological testing (with adequate modeling behind that) at probably like 1/1000th that size would be paying big dividends in terms of explaining what happened and what is happening.

    The CDC has guidelines and is supposedly coordinating "stuff" (https://www.cdc.gov/coronavirus/2019-ncov/covid-data/seroprevalence-types.html )

    But there are few actual results:
    (https://www.cdc.gov/coronavirus/2019-ncov/cases-updates/commercial-lab-surveys.html)

    Replies: @Jack D

    The CDC really sucks and we should have had a much better understanding of the disease by now. But some of your assumptions are impossible – if what you say is true then everyone should have had this by now and the disease should be receding due to herd immunity. And we are just not seeing that, even in the places that were hardest hit in the 1st wave. And even if it is “just the flu” to most people under say 50, there are a lot of people OVER 50 or with comorbidities for which this is not “just the flu” – the flu goes thru nursing homes every year but it doesn’t clear out half the population. The excess death numbers are real and put the lie to just the flu, even if the average age of death is quite high.

    This doesn’t mean that our government didn’t royally fark up its approach either. It could be (IS) much more than just the flu and yet our response could have been very different – e.g. isolating vulnerable elderly populations such as nursing home residents rather than shutting down elementary schools, etc. And BTW, even if it is just the flu, we still have flu vaccines (although not very good ones). Covid doesn’t have to be the Black Death in order for it to be a good idea to get vaccinated.

    The US is like a once luxurious car that is getting old and worn out. Some of the accessories no longer work at all and other parts are rusty or creaky. Some of the original parts have been replaced with cheap, low quality imported parts. So it’s not surprising that we can’t cope with potholes as well as we once could.

  123. @Dr. X
    I think we should give it to Negroes first as reparations for slavery. If there's any side effects...

    Oh, WAIT! There won't be ANY side effects from the brand-new RNA manipulation/approved in a rush/politically-motivated/wait-until-after-the-election-to-announce-it/Pfizer-will-make-billions "miracle drug."

    Of course!

    Replies: @The Wild Geese Howard, @Dani

    You raise an excellent point. Seeing as how even with THIS orchestrated scam of epic proportions they found a way to incorporate racial divide and conquer, “white supremacism” into the narrative, making a point of reporting on the “disproportionate” number of black Americans being afflicted with the scam/sham cooties. They further went on to say this was a result of testing not being made available enough in areas where these supposed disproportionately affected black Americans live (more lies, of course). So, ignoring that it is all utter BS so unprecedented I still marvel at how many give it any credibility, let’s see it’s all true, every word of it. It would only make sense the negroes take the jab first.
    Oh, and any and everyone should be further alarmed by the fact it is a multiple-round jab, to boot. Does there need to be writing in the sky? Well, besides the other crap they’re letting loose up there.
    No flu shots, no vaccines, period.

  124. @Alden
    @Jack D

    It’s only about 220-250 miles from the pyramids to Tel Aviv. So why did it take 40 years to get to the promised land? Even at 5 miles a day and resting on the sabbath it should have taken about 3 1/2 months to get there.

    I remember looking at the map of the Middle East during Sunday school class and thinking hmmmm. Both my cynicism and love of art color and beauty come from Sunday school. They had big colorful posters of bible scenes, loved them. Then there were the stories, sadistic and ridiculous.

    Replies: @Jack D

    It wasn’t a question of travel time, it was a question of slave mentality. The Israelites who had lived in Egypt had a slave mentality and were not suited to being a free people. “Where’s my free onions?” they ask in this very episode. So Moses decided that he had to wait a couple of generation until they had been replaced by people without a slave mentality. 40 years in the desert boot camp will tough you up for nation building.

    We can see here in America that blacks have been free for one hundred and forty years and they STILL have a slave mentality.

    • Replies: @Art Deco
    @Jack D

    We can see here in America that blacks have been free for one hundred and forty years and they STILL have a slave mentality.

    Which blacks? The employment-to-population ratio among blacks is about 10% lower than it is for the other coarse racial categories. Blacks vote Democratic by enormous margins; that's the case in every social stratum of the black population. That's an identity affirmation that's insensitive to economic factors. (Voting blacks favored the Republicans up till about 1932, and a large minority remained Republican up until 1964).

  125. @That Would Be Telling
    @Barack Obama's secret Unz account


    I thought the vaccine testing protocol or whatever relied on people getting the virus? i.e., they were making announcements of progress at 32 positive cases, 64, etc.
     
    Ah, but it matters very much who in their trial populations gets the virus. Lots in the control "arms" (saline solution placebos for the mRNA vaccines), very few in the vaccine arms, good sign the vaccine is effective in preventing symptomatic COVID-19, and for Moderna, serious COVID-19.

    But that's not proof that a bunch of people in the vaccine arms didn't get asymptomatic COVID-19 which they could then transmit to others. Based on what we know about "active" vaccines as I've taken to call these, vs. ones with protein or killed virus antigens, we have have a reasonable belief the vast majority of them won't be able to transmit it, but that's not something that can be proven with the Phase III test protocol data, either altogether, or this early in them (they run for two years).

    Compare to the "active," attenuated live virus Sabin oral polio vaccine. If it takes, your gut will never harbor a polio infection. The Salk injected killed virus vaccine does not prevent this, you can get an infection in your gut and pass it on to others, it just prevents such an infection from producing paralytic polio in escaping from your gut into your body.

    Replies: @Barack Obama's secret Unz account

    Thanks.

    But that’s not proof that a bunch of people in the vaccine arms didn’t get asymptomatic COVID-19 which they could then transmit to others.

    This is what I don’t get: were they not just testing everybody in the protocol for COVID regardless of symptoms? Isn’t the point to Stop the Spread (TM)?

    (In fact: why aren’t governments doing that anyway? Or at least of a few representative population samples. Instead they’re only testing the symptomatic, at least where I live (secret family compound in Kenya).)

    Because if all the mRNA vaccine does is ameliorate symptoms, well, don’t we already have painkillers, hydroxychloroquine, inver-whatever-it’s-called, supplemental oxygen, or whatever else doctors have figured out since January?

    Clearly I need a primer, but it’s a heavily propagandised subject so it’s hard to know what’s what.

    Anyway, if you don’t mind, I just wanna clarify what you’re saying about the polio:

    Compare to the “active,” attenuated live virus Sabin oral polio vaccine. If it takes, your gut will never harbor a polio infection. The Salk injected killed virus vaccine does not prevent this, you can get an infection in your gut and pass it on to others, it just prevents such an infection from producing paralytic polio in escaping from your gut into your body.

    Because it seems like this is backwards from the COVID vaccines: the “active”/mRNA/live vaccine, w/COVID, does not necessarily prevent infection, but merely ameliorates symptoms; the hypothetical good-old-fashioned dead vaccine prevents infection. But here we’re saying that the live polio vaccine – Sabin – prevents infection, while the dead one – Salk – does not prevent infection, only the symptoms, or perhaps rather, the disease that can result from the infection.

    Am I missing something?

    Again, thanks

    • Replies: @That Would Be Telling
    @Barack Obama's secret Unz account


    This is what I don’t get: were they not just testing everybody in the protocol for COVID regardless of symptoms?
     
    Because that would dramatically increase the cost of Phase III trials, which are already in a billion plus ballpark, maybe several (total cost of bringing a drug to market has tracked well with the cost of a strategic bombers, B-52 to B-1 to B-2), and almost certainly cause a lot of its participants to drop out as soon as they really realize they signed up to get a nasal probe every, what, week? Half week?

    Because it seems like this is backwards from the COVID vaccines: the “active”/mRNA/live vaccine, w/COVID, does not necessarily prevent infection....
     
    You're demanding scientific "certainty" way too early in the game; for now we have to go on reasonable assumptions about halting COVID-19 transmission and then check to see if they're right. We know a lot about polio vaccines because they were developed in the 1950s, and we've give one to almost every human on the planet (seriously, we're in the end game of eradicating it from the earth, although that's not going well as of late). Totally opposite stages of the data sets.

    Sorry if I'm being short with you, and this will probably be my last posting on this topic for some time because while you're honest as far as I can tell, far, far too many commenting on Unz.com about vaccines are pathological liars of one sort or another, and fighting those people who are incapable of admitting their transparent lies is enraging. Not to mention it continues to be awful to have rubbed in your face that the Left was so right about so much it said about the Right.

    If you want to know more, find someone else you trust, and/or dedicate quite some time to getting a basic grounding in biology and medicine. Without that, people end up flailing in endless nonsense.

    Replies: @Steve Sailer, @Barack Obama's secret Unz account

  126. @Barack Obama's secret Unz account
    @That Would Be Telling

    Thanks.


    But that’s not proof that a bunch of people in the vaccine arms didn’t get asymptomatic COVID-19 which they could then transmit to others.
     
    This is what I don't get: were they not just testing everybody in the protocol for COVID regardless of symptoms? Isn't the point to Stop the Spread (TM)?

    (In fact: why aren't governments doing that anyway? Or at least of a few representative population samples. Instead they're only testing the symptomatic, at least where I live (secret family compound in Kenya).)

    Because if all the mRNA vaccine does is ameliorate symptoms, well, don't we already have painkillers, hydroxychloroquine, inver-whatever-it's-called, supplemental oxygen, or whatever else doctors have figured out since January?

    Clearly I need a primer, but it's a heavily propagandised subject so it's hard to know what's what.

    Anyway, if you don't mind, I just wanna clarify what you're saying about the polio:

    Compare to the “active,” attenuated live virus Sabin oral polio vaccine. If it takes, your gut will never harbor a polio infection. The Salk injected killed virus vaccine does not prevent this, you can get an infection in your gut and pass it on to others, it just prevents such an infection from producing paralytic polio in escaping from your gut into your body.
     
    Because it seems like this is backwards from the COVID vaccines: the "active"/mRNA/live vaccine, w/COVID, does not necessarily prevent infection, but merely ameliorates symptoms; the hypothetical good-old-fashioned dead vaccine prevents infection. But here we're saying that the live polio vaccine - Sabin - prevents infection, while the dead one - Salk - does not prevent infection, only the symptoms, or perhaps rather, the disease that can result from the infection.

    Am I missing something?

    Again, thanks

    Replies: @That Would Be Telling

    This is what I don’t get: were they not just testing everybody in the protocol for COVID regardless of symptoms?

    Because that would dramatically increase the cost of Phase III trials, which are already in a billion plus ballpark, maybe several (total cost of bringing a drug to market has tracked well with the cost of a strategic bombers, B-52 to B-1 to B-2), and almost certainly cause a lot of its participants to drop out as soon as they really realize they signed up to get a nasal probe every, what, week? Half week?

    Because it seems like this is backwards from the COVID vaccines: the “active”/mRNA/live vaccine, w/COVID, does not necessarily prevent infection….

    You’re demanding scientific “certainty” way too early in the game; for now we have to go on reasonable assumptions about halting COVID-19 transmission and then check to see if they’re right. We know a lot about polio vaccines because they were developed in the 1950s, and we’ve give one to almost every human on the planet (seriously, we’re in the end game of eradicating it from the earth, although that’s not going well as of late). Totally opposite stages of the data sets.

    Sorry if I’m being short with you, and this will probably be my last posting on this topic for some time because while you’re honest as far as I can tell, far, far too many commenting on Unz.com about vaccines are pathological liars of one sort or another, and fighting those people who are incapable of admitting their transparent lies is enraging. Not to mention it continues to be awful to have rubbed in your face that the Left was so right about so much it said about the Right.

    If you want to know more, find someone else you trust, and/or dedicate quite some time to getting a basic grounding in biology and medicine. Without that, people end up flailing in endless nonsense.

    • Replies: @Steve Sailer
    @That Would Be Telling

    Thanks.

    Replies: @That Would Be Telling

    , @Barack Obama's secret Unz account
    @That Would Be Telling

    Cheers, no worries


    [Testing every participant, regardless of symptoms] would dramatically increase the cost of Phase III trials, which are already in a billion plus ballpark, maybe several (total cost of bringing a drug to market has tracked well with the cost of a strategic bombers, B-52 to B-1 to B-2), and almost certainly cause a lot of its participants to drop out as soon as they really realize they signed up to get a nasal probe every, what, week? Half week?
     
    I agree that it would be more expensive, but are you sure it would be "dramatically" so? I don't know how much these various COVID tests cost, nor how many more tests would be required. I'm sure we at least agree that universal testing would be more scientifically valid, and give a clearer picture of the vaccine's impact on transmission, and that, therefore, it's a shame they couldn't find the money to do it.

    I'm not sure I agree that there would be too many participants dropping out of the trials, though. It's a global emergency, and by participating in the trial, you're quite literally helping save the world: isn't that worth the discomfort once a week, or whatever? I've been tested more than once; it's unpleasant, but it's not that bad.

    ----------------------------------

    FWIW, I am being honest - I'm not an "anti-vaxxer", but I am someone who knows that these big companies need to be watched like hawks - by the way, why hasn't Hollywood made a movie about that woman? - so when I saw news reports earlier in the year, I believe on this very blog, that vaccine manufacturers were being granted immunity from liability for harm caused by coronavirus vaccines, I got suspicious.

    You mentioned that the eradication of polio "is not going well of late", for instance: that's the only other piece of vaccinology that I picked up this year, and is another cause for concern.

    My working theory is that, like everything else, vaccines are declining in quality; and, like every other big institution, wishing to maintain its profits and position, but unable or unwilling to make difficult, expensive, and real improvements, vaccine manufacturers have elected to use PR to gaslight people into thinking that nothing's wrong. Therefore we get news stories about "antivaxxers", and thus any doctors complaining about an uptick in polio get lumped in with Hollywood celebrities that think vaccines cause negative chi, or whatever wacky shit it is that they think.

    So that's where I'm coming from: a sort of generalised ignorant skepticism. But I take your point that it's not a perfect world and it's too soon to be certain about these vaccines and that they may be worth the risk anyway.

    Replies: @That Would Be Telling

  127. @That Would Be Telling
    @Barack Obama's secret Unz account


    This is what I don’t get: were they not just testing everybody in the protocol for COVID regardless of symptoms?
     
    Because that would dramatically increase the cost of Phase III trials, which are already in a billion plus ballpark, maybe several (total cost of bringing a drug to market has tracked well with the cost of a strategic bombers, B-52 to B-1 to B-2), and almost certainly cause a lot of its participants to drop out as soon as they really realize they signed up to get a nasal probe every, what, week? Half week?

    Because it seems like this is backwards from the COVID vaccines: the “active”/mRNA/live vaccine, w/COVID, does not necessarily prevent infection....
     
    You're demanding scientific "certainty" way too early in the game; for now we have to go on reasonable assumptions about halting COVID-19 transmission and then check to see if they're right. We know a lot about polio vaccines because they were developed in the 1950s, and we've give one to almost every human on the planet (seriously, we're in the end game of eradicating it from the earth, although that's not going well as of late). Totally opposite stages of the data sets.

    Sorry if I'm being short with you, and this will probably be my last posting on this topic for some time because while you're honest as far as I can tell, far, far too many commenting on Unz.com about vaccines are pathological liars of one sort or another, and fighting those people who are incapable of admitting their transparent lies is enraging. Not to mention it continues to be awful to have rubbed in your face that the Left was so right about so much it said about the Right.

    If you want to know more, find someone else you trust, and/or dedicate quite some time to getting a basic grounding in biology and medicine. Without that, people end up flailing in endless nonsense.

    Replies: @Steve Sailer, @Barack Obama's secret Unz account

    Thanks.

    • Replies: @That Would Be Telling
    @Steve Sailer

    You're welcome. And your thanks means a lot.

    "I'll be back," but I think only to iSteve, just reviewed my part in the last three discussions here and they were on balance sane, with a relative lack of ill will and dogmatic ignorance. Plus I now see a lot of Thanks I'd missed, Unz.com has the best commenting software I've ever used, but you don't get alerted to AGREE/DISAGREE/ETC. annotations.

    Which is probably good social media hygiene. But I'm now pleased with the response I got from my comment trying to explain the single most complicated concept in these discussions, the ecology of mutant organisms, for example, what does it take for a mutation to become prevalent in a population. I spend a lot of time on it, wasn't sure I got the points across, but it's invaluable insight I learned from my first PI, a savvy microbiologist. (And the TL;DR for COVID-19 is we probably don't have much to worry about.)

    And I'll keep watching this topic, if @Barack Obama's secret Unz account is still confused I'll do my best to further answer his questions, my love for teaching has not in the least been diminished in this obsessive last week or so of vaccine commenting on Unz.com.

  128. @Jack D
    @Alden

    It wasn't a question of travel time, it was a question of slave mentality. The Israelites who had lived in Egypt had a slave mentality and were not suited to being a free people. "Where's my free onions?" they ask in this very episode. So Moses decided that he had to wait a couple of generation until they had been replaced by people without a slave mentality. 40 years in the desert boot camp will tough you up for nation building.

    We can see here in America that blacks have been free for one hundred and forty years and they STILL have a slave mentality.

    Replies: @Art Deco

    We can see here in America that blacks have been free for one hundred and forty years and they STILL have a slave mentality.

    Which blacks? The employment-to-population ratio among blacks is about 10% lower than it is for the other coarse racial categories. Blacks vote Democratic by enormous margins; that’s the case in every social stratum of the black population. That’s an identity affirmation that’s insensitive to economic factors. (Voting blacks favored the Republicans up till about 1932, and a large minority remained Republican up until 1964).

  129. @Steve Sailer
    @That Would Be Telling

    Thanks.

    Replies: @That Would Be Telling

    You’re welcome. And your thanks means a lot.

    “I’ll be back,” but I think only to iSteve, just reviewed my part in the last three discussions here and they were on balance sane, with a relative lack of ill will and dogmatic ignorance. Plus I now see a lot of Thanks I’d missed, Unz.com has the best commenting software I’ve ever used, but you don’t get alerted to AGREE/DISAGREE/ETC. annotations.

    Which is probably good social media hygiene. But I’m now pleased with the response I got from my comment trying to explain the single most complicated concept in these discussions, the ecology of mutant organisms, for example, what does it take for a mutation to become prevalent in a population. I spend a lot of time on it, wasn’t sure I got the points across, but it’s invaluable insight I learned from my first PI, a savvy microbiologist. (And the TL;DR for COVID-19 is we probably don’t have much to worry about.)

    And I’ll keep watching this topic, if @Barack Obama’s secret Unz account is still confused I’ll do my best to further answer his questions, my love for teaching has not in the least been diminished in this obsessive last week or so of vaccine commenting on Unz.com.

  130. OT: Latest IHME predictions are in:

    https://covid19.healthdata.org/united-states-of-america?view=total-deaths&tab=trend

    Predictions:

    Current Projections:

    300,000 deaths by 12/15/20
    400,000 deaths by 1/19/21
    500,000 deaths by 3/ 1/21

    But if Mandates are eased.

    600,000 deaths by 2/17/21
    700,000 deaths by 3/ 9/21

  131. @That Would Be Telling
    @The Wild Geese Howard


    How have they managed to develop a vaccine based on a virus that has not been successfully isolated?
     
    Define "isolated."

    Ignoring it was isolated by many entities like the CDC in the timeframe you'd expect, there are two key insights that should demolish this meme: working with any serious quantity of the SARS-CoV-2 virus requires a BSL-3 lab at minimum (research the difficulties of doing anything at the various BSL levels for why that's a big issue and avoided when it can be), and all of the leading vaccines are based on genetic engineering. That is, people could get working on them starting January the 10th, when the first genetic sequences of the virus were published from the PRC.

    mRNA vaccines use a tweaked for stability copy of just the RNA sequence for the spike protein, thus Moderna had their candidate two days later, adenovirus virus vector vaccines have some of their DNA replaced with a sequence that codes for the spike protein. Virus isolates are only needed for the purposes of ethical vaccine research in animal testing "challenge" experiments, exposing an animal to the virus to see if he gets it.

    Replies: @The Wild Geese Howard

    Thank you for the information.

    You are more than welcome to my vax doses.

  132. @That Would Be Telling
    @Barack Obama's secret Unz account


    This is what I don’t get: were they not just testing everybody in the protocol for COVID regardless of symptoms?
     
    Because that would dramatically increase the cost of Phase III trials, which are already in a billion plus ballpark, maybe several (total cost of bringing a drug to market has tracked well with the cost of a strategic bombers, B-52 to B-1 to B-2), and almost certainly cause a lot of its participants to drop out as soon as they really realize they signed up to get a nasal probe every, what, week? Half week?

    Because it seems like this is backwards from the COVID vaccines: the “active”/mRNA/live vaccine, w/COVID, does not necessarily prevent infection....
     
    You're demanding scientific "certainty" way too early in the game; for now we have to go on reasonable assumptions about halting COVID-19 transmission and then check to see if they're right. We know a lot about polio vaccines because they were developed in the 1950s, and we've give one to almost every human on the planet (seriously, we're in the end game of eradicating it from the earth, although that's not going well as of late). Totally opposite stages of the data sets.

    Sorry if I'm being short with you, and this will probably be my last posting on this topic for some time because while you're honest as far as I can tell, far, far too many commenting on Unz.com about vaccines are pathological liars of one sort or another, and fighting those people who are incapable of admitting their transparent lies is enraging. Not to mention it continues to be awful to have rubbed in your face that the Left was so right about so much it said about the Right.

    If you want to know more, find someone else you trust, and/or dedicate quite some time to getting a basic grounding in biology and medicine. Without that, people end up flailing in endless nonsense.

    Replies: @Steve Sailer, @Barack Obama's secret Unz account

    Cheers, no worries

    [Testing every participant, regardless of symptoms] would dramatically increase the cost of Phase III trials, which are already in a billion plus ballpark, maybe several (total cost of bringing a drug to market has tracked well with the cost of a strategic bombers, B-52 to B-1 to B-2), and almost certainly cause a lot of its participants to drop out as soon as they really realize they signed up to get a nasal probe every, what, week? Half week?

    I agree that it would be more expensive, but are you sure it would be “dramatically” so? I don’t know how much these various COVID tests cost, nor how many more tests would be required. I’m sure we at least agree that universal testing would be more scientifically valid, and give a clearer picture of the vaccine’s impact on transmission, and that, therefore, it’s a shame they couldn’t find the money to do it.

    I’m not sure I agree that there would be too many participants dropping out of the trials, though. It’s a global emergency, and by participating in the trial, you’re quite literally helping save the world: isn’t that worth the discomfort once a week, or whatever? I’ve been tested more than once; it’s unpleasant, but it’s not that bad.

    ———————————-

    FWIW, I am being honest – I’m not an “anti-vaxxer”, but I am someone who knows that these big companies need to be watched like hawks – by the way, why hasn’t Hollywood made a movie about that woman? – so when I saw news reports earlier in the year, I believe on this very blog, that vaccine manufacturers were being granted immunity from liability for harm caused by coronavirus vaccines, I got suspicious.

    You mentioned that the eradication of polio “is not going well of late”, for instance: that’s the only other piece of vaccinology that I picked up this year, and is another cause for concern.

    My working theory is that, like everything else, vaccines are declining in quality; and, like every other big institution, wishing to maintain its profits and position, but unable or unwilling to make difficult, expensive, and real improvements, vaccine manufacturers have elected to use PR to gaslight people into thinking that nothing’s wrong. Therefore we get news stories about “antivaxxers”, and thus any doctors complaining about an uptick in polio get lumped in with Hollywood celebrities that think vaccines cause negative chi, or whatever wacky shit it is that they think.

    So that’s where I’m coming from: a sort of generalised ignorant skepticism. But I take your point that it’s not a perfect world and it’s too soon to be certain about these vaccines and that they may be worth the risk anyway.

    • Replies: @That Would Be Telling
    @Barack Obama's secret Unz account


    Cheers, no worries

    [Testing every participant, regardless of symptoms] would dramatically increase the cost of Phase III trials, which are already in a billion plus ballpark, maybe several (total cost of bringing a drug to market has tracked well with the cost of a strategic bombers, B-52 to B-1 to B-2), and almost certainly cause a lot of its participants to drop out as soon as they really realize they signed up to get a nasal probe every, what, week? Half week?
     
    I agree that it would be more expensive, but are you sure it would be “dramatically” so? I don’t know how much these various COVID tests cost, nor how many more tests would be required.
     
    You're not including the human administration and transportation costs for the tests; since the testing company can buy testing capacity in bulk, that could well exceed the costs for the actual tests, which are partly automated.

    I’m sure we at least agree that universal testing would be more scientifically valid, and give a clearer picture of the vaccine’s impact on transmission, and that, therefore, it’s a shame they couldn’t find the money to do it.
     
    The transmission data we want is to see if people who've been vaccinated, 1 week or so after their second shot, transmit COVID-19 to others, that's the gold standard "endpoint," just like getting a RT-PCR confirmed symptomatic case of COVID-19 is the efficacy endpoint. You're specifying a proxy endpoint, a realistic for a trial one, but I'm not sure how useful.

    [I don't think either of us knows if frequent testing would cause too many to drop out of the trial.] But I'd say its an unquantifiable danger, and that's extremely bad when you're testing at flank speed while thousands are dying every day, you might have to substantially extend the Phase III trial, or drop that from the protocol, which would cause people to scream bloody murder, at they already are since the Phase III tests aren't (yet?) trying for this endpoint.

    ———————————-

    ... these big companies need to be watched like hawks ... so when I saw news reports earlier in the year, I believe on this very blog, that vaccine manufacturers were being granted immunity from liability for harm caused by coronavirus vaccines, I got suspicious.
     
    Given this has been US policy for decades....

    You mentioned that the eradication of polio “is not going well of late”, for instance: that’s the only other piece of vaccinology that I picked up this year, and is another cause for concern.
     
    The reasons are well understood, one is not relevant to these replication impossible (mRNA) and "deficient" virus vector vaccines (more on that later if I haven't explained well enough the public health trade-offs between the Salk and Sabin type vaccines), one absolutely is, reluctance to get vaccinated.

    My working theory is that, like everything else, vaccines are declining in quality
     
    Given that I have a thesis I name "everything is going to s***" based exactly on that, I'm not going to blow off your concern. But do we see any signs of this in made in the West vaccines? Will have to think about that, and we could use some data

    On the other hand, the acceptance of these COVID-19 vaccines will hinge greatly on how well they do as they're administered to general populations. Note also the bias of the US media on anything COVID-19 is now being quantified, is much more negative than the rest of the world, can't let the BAD ORANGE MAN get reelected after all, and the elderly are a key GOP constituency, can't win elections without them. But look at the House results....

    ; and, like every other big institution, wishing to maintain its profits and position, but unable or unwilling to make difficult, expensive, and real improvements
     
    You just moved the goalposts. Improvements require new testing through Phase III trials, have you got the money necessary to buy a strategic bomber? Per some Unz.com commentators, we have problems with the current and axiomatically suspect the acellular pertussis (whooping cough), and one of the shingles vaccines. Dengue, not a big problem in the West, sounds like it might need a RSV/coronavirus stabilization effort. What vaccines do you think need improvement, and why? Don't count flu, seeing as how the body fails with a real infection.

    , vaccine manufacturers have elected to use PR to gaslight people into thinking that nothing’s wrong. Therefore we get news stories about “antivaxxers”,
     
    Or are doing this because the benefits vastly outweigh the risks, but the West is now filled with cowards and selfish sociopaths who can't accept that there will absolutely be some bad outcomes??

    and thus any doctors complaining about an uptick in polio get lumped in with Hollywood celebrities that think vaccines cause negative chi, or whatever wacky shit it is that they think.
     
    Looks like I'll have to address this, but later. Against, it's issues that were baked into the pie in the 1950s, plus 3rd World antivaxxers.

    [You finish with good points.]

    Replies: @Barack Obama's secret Unz account

  133. @Barack Obama's secret Unz account
    @That Would Be Telling

    Cheers, no worries


    [Testing every participant, regardless of symptoms] would dramatically increase the cost of Phase III trials, which are already in a billion plus ballpark, maybe several (total cost of bringing a drug to market has tracked well with the cost of a strategic bombers, B-52 to B-1 to B-2), and almost certainly cause a lot of its participants to drop out as soon as they really realize they signed up to get a nasal probe every, what, week? Half week?
     
    I agree that it would be more expensive, but are you sure it would be "dramatically" so? I don't know how much these various COVID tests cost, nor how many more tests would be required. I'm sure we at least agree that universal testing would be more scientifically valid, and give a clearer picture of the vaccine's impact on transmission, and that, therefore, it's a shame they couldn't find the money to do it.

    I'm not sure I agree that there would be too many participants dropping out of the trials, though. It's a global emergency, and by participating in the trial, you're quite literally helping save the world: isn't that worth the discomfort once a week, or whatever? I've been tested more than once; it's unpleasant, but it's not that bad.

    ----------------------------------

    FWIW, I am being honest - I'm not an "anti-vaxxer", but I am someone who knows that these big companies need to be watched like hawks - by the way, why hasn't Hollywood made a movie about that woman? - so when I saw news reports earlier in the year, I believe on this very blog, that vaccine manufacturers were being granted immunity from liability for harm caused by coronavirus vaccines, I got suspicious.

    You mentioned that the eradication of polio "is not going well of late", for instance: that's the only other piece of vaccinology that I picked up this year, and is another cause for concern.

    My working theory is that, like everything else, vaccines are declining in quality; and, like every other big institution, wishing to maintain its profits and position, but unable or unwilling to make difficult, expensive, and real improvements, vaccine manufacturers have elected to use PR to gaslight people into thinking that nothing's wrong. Therefore we get news stories about "antivaxxers", and thus any doctors complaining about an uptick in polio get lumped in with Hollywood celebrities that think vaccines cause negative chi, or whatever wacky shit it is that they think.

    So that's where I'm coming from: a sort of generalised ignorant skepticism. But I take your point that it's not a perfect world and it's too soon to be certain about these vaccines and that they may be worth the risk anyway.

    Replies: @That Would Be Telling

    Cheers, no worries

    [Testing every participant, regardless of symptoms] would dramatically increase the cost of Phase III trials, which are already in a billion plus ballpark, maybe several (total cost of bringing a drug to market has tracked well with the cost of a strategic bombers, B-52 to B-1 to B-2), and almost certainly cause a lot of its participants to drop out as soon as they really realize they signed up to get a nasal probe every, what, week? Half week?

    I agree that it would be more expensive, but are you sure it would be “dramatically” so? I don’t know how much these various COVID tests cost, nor how many more tests would be required.

    You’re not including the human administration and transportation costs for the tests; since the testing company can buy testing capacity in bulk, that could well exceed the costs for the actual tests, which are partly automated.

    I’m sure we at least agree that universal testing would be more scientifically valid, and give a clearer picture of the vaccine’s impact on transmission, and that, therefore, it’s a shame they couldn’t find the money to do it.

    The transmission data we want is to see if people who’ve been vaccinated, 1 week or so after their second shot, transmit COVID-19 to others, that’s the gold standard “endpoint,” just like getting a RT-PCR confirmed symptomatic case of COVID-19 is the efficacy endpoint. You’re specifying a proxy endpoint, a realistic for a trial one, but I’m not sure how useful.

    [I don’t think either of us knows if frequent testing would cause too many to drop out of the trial.] But I’d say its an unquantifiable danger, and that’s extremely bad when you’re testing at flank speed while thousands are dying every day, you might have to substantially extend the Phase III trial, or drop that from the protocol, which would cause people to scream bloody murder, at they already are since the Phase III tests aren’t (yet?) trying for this endpoint.

    ———————————-

    … these big companies need to be watched like hawks … so when I saw news reports earlier in the year, I believe on this very blog, that vaccine manufacturers were being granted immunity from liability for harm caused by coronavirus vaccines, I got suspicious.

    Given this has been US policy for decades….

    You mentioned that the eradication of polio “is not going well of late”, for instance: that’s the only other piece of vaccinology that I picked up this year, and is another cause for concern.

    The reasons are well understood, one is not relevant to these replication impossible (mRNA) and “deficient” virus vector vaccines (more on that later if I haven’t explained well enough the public health trade-offs between the Salk and Sabin type vaccines), one absolutely is, reluctance to get vaccinated.

    My working theory is that, like everything else, vaccines are declining in quality

    Given that I have a thesis I name “everything is going to s***” based exactly on that, I’m not going to blow off your concern. But do we see any signs of this in made in the West vaccines? Will have to think about that, and we could use some data

    On the other hand, the acceptance of these COVID-19 vaccines will hinge greatly on how well they do as they’re administered to general populations. Note also the bias of the US media on anything COVID-19 is now being quantified, is much more negative than the rest of the world, can’t let the BAD ORANGE MAN get reelected after all, and the elderly are a key GOP constituency, can’t win elections without them. But look at the House results….

    ; and, like every other big institution, wishing to maintain its profits and position, but unable or unwilling to make difficult, expensive, and real improvements

    You just moved the goalposts. Improvements require new testing through Phase III trials, have you got the money necessary to buy a strategic bomber? Per some Unz.com commentators, we have problems with the current and axiomatically suspect the acellular pertussis (whooping cough), and one of the shingles vaccines. Dengue, not a big problem in the West, sounds like it might need a RSV/coronavirus stabilization effort. What vaccines do you think need improvement, and why? Don’t count flu, seeing as how the body fails with a real infection.

    , vaccine manufacturers have elected to use PR to gaslight people into thinking that nothing’s wrong. Therefore we get news stories about “antivaxxers”,

    Or are doing this because the benefits vastly outweigh the risks, but the West is now filled with cowards and selfish sociopaths who can’t accept that there will absolutely be some bad outcomes??

    and thus any doctors complaining about an uptick in polio get lumped in with Hollywood celebrities that think vaccines cause negative chi, or whatever wacky shit it is that they think.

    Looks like I’ll have to address this, but later. Against, it’s issues that were baked into the pie in the 1950s, plus 3rd World antivaxxers.

    [You finish with good points.]

    • Replies: @Barack Obama's secret Unz account
    @That Would Be Telling


    The transmission data we want is to see if people who’ve been vaccinated, 1 week or so after their second shot, transmit COVID-19 to others...
     
    Wouldn't we want to see if they transmit it at a higher rate than the unvaccinated?


    ...vaccine manufacturers were being granted immunity from liability for harm caused by coronavirus vaccines, I got suspicious.
     
    Given this has been US policy for decades….
     
    Well, now I'm even more suspicious!

    But do we see any signs of [declining quality] in made in the West vaccines?
     
    One proxy might be the rise of the so-called antivax movement, as I said.

    Replies: @Steve Sailer

  134. @Travis
    @utu

    In Early February, the Coronavirus Was Moving Through New York
    Antibodies appeared in blood samples taken later in the month, a new study finds.
    https://www.nytimes.com/2020/06/30/health/coronavirus-ny.html

    The study confirms estimates by epidemiologists working for New York State that roughly one in five New Yorkers had been exposed to the virus by April, a figure broadly consistent with data released on Friday by the Centers for Disease Control and Prevention.

    The similarity is even more striking, experts said, because the three studies all arrived at their estimates differently. Dr. Krammer and his colleagues analyzed plasma samples from nearly 5,500 patients who went to Mount Sinai for routine medical appointments, were seen in its emergency department or were hospitalized from the week ending Feb. 9 through the week ending April 19.

    The numbers from all three studies also agree on a crucial point: The vast majority of infections in New York City and elsewhere in the country went undiagnosed. The Mount Sinai researchers grouped their samples in different ways and analyzed them using a lab-based antibody test that is highly accurate and specific to the new coronavirus....among people who gave blood for routine appointments, or were admitted to the hospitals for reasons unrelated to the coronavirus — a group that represents the general population — fewer than 2 percent of people had antibodies until the week ending March 29. The rate rose exponentially to 19.3 % among patients seen in the week ending April 19....Nearly one in 10 pregnant women had antibodies to the virus by the week of March 29, and the number rose steadily to nearly 27% by the week ending April 19.

    Other cities, like San Francisco, have similarly shown periods when the virus seemed to percolate until something — perhaps a superspreader event — triggered an exponential rise in infections....“We’ve seen this elsewhere repeatedly, and it’s still strange to me,” Dr. Bedford said.

    Dr. Krammer is continuing to track antibodies in blood samples and plans to do so for at least a year. But he said he would not expect the prevalence to rise much above 20 percent in May or June, because infections in New York City had tapered off by then.

    Why do New Yorkers have the antibodies in June than in April ? With the number of cases going up each day during this time...the only explanation is that the antibodies only last a few months.

    Replies: @utu

    There is a possibility that the Red Cross samples study might have many false positives.

    https://www.unz.com/mwhitney/heres-why-you-should-skip-the-covid-vaccine/#comment-4327739

    Only one sample had S1-test positive which is not cross-active with antibodies for other viruses.

  135. @That Would Be Telling
    @Barack Obama's secret Unz account


    Cheers, no worries

    [Testing every participant, regardless of symptoms] would dramatically increase the cost of Phase III trials, which are already in a billion plus ballpark, maybe several (total cost of bringing a drug to market has tracked well with the cost of a strategic bombers, B-52 to B-1 to B-2), and almost certainly cause a lot of its participants to drop out as soon as they really realize they signed up to get a nasal probe every, what, week? Half week?
     
    I agree that it would be more expensive, but are you sure it would be “dramatically” so? I don’t know how much these various COVID tests cost, nor how many more tests would be required.
     
    You're not including the human administration and transportation costs for the tests; since the testing company can buy testing capacity in bulk, that could well exceed the costs for the actual tests, which are partly automated.

    I’m sure we at least agree that universal testing would be more scientifically valid, and give a clearer picture of the vaccine’s impact on transmission, and that, therefore, it’s a shame they couldn’t find the money to do it.
     
    The transmission data we want is to see if people who've been vaccinated, 1 week or so after their second shot, transmit COVID-19 to others, that's the gold standard "endpoint," just like getting a RT-PCR confirmed symptomatic case of COVID-19 is the efficacy endpoint. You're specifying a proxy endpoint, a realistic for a trial one, but I'm not sure how useful.

    [I don't think either of us knows if frequent testing would cause too many to drop out of the trial.] But I'd say its an unquantifiable danger, and that's extremely bad when you're testing at flank speed while thousands are dying every day, you might have to substantially extend the Phase III trial, or drop that from the protocol, which would cause people to scream bloody murder, at they already are since the Phase III tests aren't (yet?) trying for this endpoint.

    ———————————-

    ... these big companies need to be watched like hawks ... so when I saw news reports earlier in the year, I believe on this very blog, that vaccine manufacturers were being granted immunity from liability for harm caused by coronavirus vaccines, I got suspicious.
     
    Given this has been US policy for decades....

    You mentioned that the eradication of polio “is not going well of late”, for instance: that’s the only other piece of vaccinology that I picked up this year, and is another cause for concern.
     
    The reasons are well understood, one is not relevant to these replication impossible (mRNA) and "deficient" virus vector vaccines (more on that later if I haven't explained well enough the public health trade-offs between the Salk and Sabin type vaccines), one absolutely is, reluctance to get vaccinated.

    My working theory is that, like everything else, vaccines are declining in quality
     
    Given that I have a thesis I name "everything is going to s***" based exactly on that, I'm not going to blow off your concern. But do we see any signs of this in made in the West vaccines? Will have to think about that, and we could use some data

    On the other hand, the acceptance of these COVID-19 vaccines will hinge greatly on how well they do as they're administered to general populations. Note also the bias of the US media on anything COVID-19 is now being quantified, is much more negative than the rest of the world, can't let the BAD ORANGE MAN get reelected after all, and the elderly are a key GOP constituency, can't win elections without them. But look at the House results....

    ; and, like every other big institution, wishing to maintain its profits and position, but unable or unwilling to make difficult, expensive, and real improvements
     
    You just moved the goalposts. Improvements require new testing through Phase III trials, have you got the money necessary to buy a strategic bomber? Per some Unz.com commentators, we have problems with the current and axiomatically suspect the acellular pertussis (whooping cough), and one of the shingles vaccines. Dengue, not a big problem in the West, sounds like it might need a RSV/coronavirus stabilization effort. What vaccines do you think need improvement, and why? Don't count flu, seeing as how the body fails with a real infection.

    , vaccine manufacturers have elected to use PR to gaslight people into thinking that nothing’s wrong. Therefore we get news stories about “antivaxxers”,
     
    Or are doing this because the benefits vastly outweigh the risks, but the West is now filled with cowards and selfish sociopaths who can't accept that there will absolutely be some bad outcomes??

    and thus any doctors complaining about an uptick in polio get lumped in with Hollywood celebrities that think vaccines cause negative chi, or whatever wacky shit it is that they think.
     
    Looks like I'll have to address this, but later. Against, it's issues that were baked into the pie in the 1950s, plus 3rd World antivaxxers.

    [You finish with good points.]

    Replies: @Barack Obama's secret Unz account

    The transmission data we want is to see if people who’ve been vaccinated, 1 week or so after their second shot, transmit COVID-19 to others…

    Wouldn’t we want to see if they transmit it at a higher rate than the unvaccinated?

    …vaccine manufacturers were being granted immunity from liability for harm caused by coronavirus vaccines, I got suspicious.

    Given this has been US policy for decades….

    Well, now I’m even more suspicious!

    But do we see any signs of [declining quality] in made in the West vaccines?

    One proxy might be the rise of the so-called antivax movement, as I said.

    • Replies: @Steve Sailer
    @Barack Obama's secret Unz account

    "One proxy might be the rise of the so-called antivax movement, as I said."

    The rise of the antivax movement is a good proxy for the success of vaccinations. Because Americans are no longer worried about smallpox or polio, they have space in their brains to worry about vaccinations.

    Replies: @Barack Obama's secret Unz account

  136. @Barack Obama's secret Unz account
    @That Would Be Telling


    The transmission data we want is to see if people who’ve been vaccinated, 1 week or so after their second shot, transmit COVID-19 to others...
     
    Wouldn't we want to see if they transmit it at a higher rate than the unvaccinated?


    ...vaccine manufacturers were being granted immunity from liability for harm caused by coronavirus vaccines, I got suspicious.
     
    Given this has been US policy for decades….
     
    Well, now I'm even more suspicious!

    But do we see any signs of [declining quality] in made in the West vaccines?
     
    One proxy might be the rise of the so-called antivax movement, as I said.

    Replies: @Steve Sailer

    “One proxy might be the rise of the so-called antivax movement, as I said.”

    The rise of the antivax movement is a good proxy for the success of vaccinations. Because Americans are no longer worried about smallpox or polio, they have space in their brains to worry about vaccinations.

    • Replies: @Barack Obama's secret Unz account
    @Steve Sailer

    Well, that's certainly the way it's presented, with measles outbreaks in cossetted Beverly Hills and so on.

    The question is, are all complaints about vaccines illegitimate?

    Suppose vaccines had declined in quality. Legitimate complaints would increase.

    An effective pharmaceutical company PR strategy would be to lump the legitimate complaints in with the illegitimate complaints, under the heading "antivaxxer". Thus any M.D. complaining is automatically a quack.

    I don't know whether this is what is happening, but I think it's fair to say that it's a perfectly plausible scenario, even a likely one, if there really were a growing number of legitimate complaints about vaccines. If so, the rise of the antivax movement would not be entirely organic, and its astroturfing would be somewhat correlated to the number of legitimate complaints.

    Which is why I say it might be a proxy for declining vaccine quality. It comes back to the question, are all complaints about vaccines illegitimate?

  137. @Steve Sailer
    @Barack Obama's secret Unz account

    "One proxy might be the rise of the so-called antivax movement, as I said."

    The rise of the antivax movement is a good proxy for the success of vaccinations. Because Americans are no longer worried about smallpox or polio, they have space in their brains to worry about vaccinations.

    Replies: @Barack Obama's secret Unz account

    Well, that’s certainly the way it’s presented, with measles outbreaks in cossetted Beverly Hills and so on.

    The question is, are all complaints about vaccines illegitimate?

    Suppose vaccines had declined in quality. Legitimate complaints would increase.

    An effective pharmaceutical company PR strategy would be to lump the legitimate complaints in with the illegitimate complaints, under the heading “antivaxxer”. Thus any M.D. complaining is automatically a quack.

    I don’t know whether this is what is happening, but I think it’s fair to say that it’s a perfectly plausible scenario, even a likely one, if there really were a growing number of legitimate complaints about vaccines. If so, the rise of the antivax movement would not be entirely organic, and its astroturfing would be somewhat correlated to the number of legitimate complaints.

    Which is why I say it might be a proxy for declining vaccine quality. It comes back to the question, are all complaints about vaccines illegitimate?

    • Thanks: Dissident

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