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The UK Vaccine Prioritization Plan
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The British are already giving the Pfizer vaccine to oldsters, starting yesterday morning. From the Daily Mail, here is the UK’s vaccination priority plan:

This seems more fine-tuned than the lumpier US plan, which puts a high priority on a huge category called “essential workers,” in part to prioritize blacks and Latinos. You can multiply the UK figures by five to get roughly the numbers in each category for the US. Assuming the same population structure in the US as in the UK, here are approximate totals of each UK category for the US:

  1. Institutionalized oldsters and their carers: 10 million
  2. >=80s and frontline health/social workers: 24 million (34 million cumulatively)
  3. >=75s: 11 million (45 million)
  4. >=70s and extremely vulnerable: 16 million (61 million)
  5. >=65s: 17 million (78 million)
  6. 18-64s with serious health conditions: ???
  7. >=60s: 18 million (96 million + ??? for 6)
  8. >=55s: 21 million (117 million + ???)
  9. >=50s: 24 million (141 million + ???)

So that’s about 300 million doses at two doses per person. Operation Warp Speed has contracted for 100 million doses of Pfizer’s vaccine and 100 million doses of Moderna’s, but where will the rest come from? AstraZeneca doesn’t seem to have their dosage protocol optimized yet. Novavax and Johnson and Johnson haven’t reported clinical trial results yet. The Russian vaccine looked good in its very small clinical trial so far, but the US would probably not be a high priority customer for the Russians. (One suggestion is for the Russians and AstraZeneca to work together.)

Note that there is some overlap among the 9 categories, e.g., there are frontline healthcare workers who are over 50 and have underlying health conditions, so they get tallied up in 3 different slots. But the size of Category 6 is unspecified.

It would seem like there are several different possible goals when drawing up a priority plan:

A. Minimize deaths

B. Minimize quality-adjusted life years lost

C. Minimize cases

D. Minimize economic harm

E. Maximize happiness

F. Show you care more for sacralized groups than for demonized group s

G. Minimize hospital usage

The British plan appears to be focused on minimizing deaths. While that might not be optimal from some perspectives, it might psychologically be best by rapidly reducing the topline death count.

 
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  1. This should knock a few years off life expectancy, looks like another attempt to Medicare solvent for the next generation.

    • Agree: Old and Grumpy
    • Replies: @ScarletNumber
    @Bill Jones

    As well as social security. People living too long is a serious problem but no one wants to say that out loud because of grandma, who has been a leech for the last 40 years.

    Replies: @Art Deco, @Buzz Mohawk, @S. Anonyia

    , @Truth
    @Bill Jones

    In addition, it kills those of us with old school values, and leaves the country in the hands of Chavs.

  2. Prioritizing care home residents doesn’t satisfy any of your goals A through E. The idea is to allow care home residents, who have essentially been locked up since March, to finally see their families again. I propose an additional conflicting goal:

    F. Maximize happiness

    • Thanks: Voltarde
    • Replies: @Steve Sailer
    @Andrew M

    Thanks.

    , @Buffalo Joe
    @Andrew M

    Andrew, brillant comment. My 103 year old Mother doesn't want the stinking vaccine. She wants Eternal Rest. Thanksgiving was to be a day out of quarantine and a chance for her to hold her newest great grandchild. andrew, fuck you, cuomo instituted new rules just before the holiday. I would need to get mom tested and of course a negative test before she could return to the assisted living facility. Where does one get that done on Thanksgiving? And an aside, Mom won't stay over night at my house or my brother's. Thanksgiving we all trooped over and visited Mom through her window. Classic, make you teary eyed, photo of Mom's hand against the glass and the baby's hand against the outside pane. PS. the test rule was changed on Thanksgiving to a mandated test if she stayed out for 24 or more hours. A staff memeber tested possitive so they are all in quarantine again. PSS. cuomo's mother was going to travel and join him for Thanksgiving, but deserved push back made him cancel that trip or so we were told. Stay safe.

    , @AnotherDad
    @Andrew M


    F. Maximize happiness
     
    Agree.

    I think that means whatever set of policies gets rid of the lockdown nonsense ASAP. That may indeed mean protecting old folks and when done people will think "ok, no biggie now" but my guess is the hysteria has been too much for that.

    A category i would suggest under "happiness" is make the vaccine available immediately to any young couple who are planning on having a baby in 2021--concerned about doing it with the virus, but promise to do so if they are vaccinated.

    We are just getting to the births conceived under the Xi regime. Do not know how it's going. But wouldn't surprise me if the Covid hysterics have killed off more babies than all the Covid deaths or Covid deaths prevented.

    I have pretty close to zero doubt the hysterics' lockdowns and nonsense have killed off more years of life than they have saved or years of life lost or would have been lost doing nothing.

    This has been a classic sacrificing the future for the past debacle. But we're now a society so far removed--"nation of immigrants", open borders, feminism, lean-in, homo-"marriage", "transgender"--from a healthy love of our own children, our posterity that most people discussing this don't even think forgone children.

    Replies: @Thoughts, @Clyde

  3. @Andrew M
    Prioritizing care home residents doesn’t satisfy any of your goals A through E. The idea is to allow care home residents, who have essentially been locked up since March, to finally see their families again. I propose an additional conflicting goal:

    F. Maximize happiness

    Replies: @Steve Sailer, @Buffalo Joe, @AnotherDad

    Thanks.

  4. NPR had a segment today on prioritizing the Covid vaccine for prisoners.

    • Replies: @Steve Sailer
    @Hhsiii

    I was thinking about elderly prisoners. Maybe we should prioritize them. But then I got thinking about who is still in prison at very old age: Sirhan Sirhan, Charles Manson, Winston Moseley (Kitty Genovese's murderer) ... guys of that ilk.

    Replies: @Mike Tre, @Bragadocious, @Anonymous, @My SIMPLE Pseudonymic Handle, @D. K.

    , @Art Deco
    @Hhsiii

    No doubt they conceptualize convicts as a client population put upon by deplorables with their rigid ideas about how people ought to behave.

    Since the median age of the prison population is around 35 years and very few are over 60, there aren't may people there who would be given priority by a person of sense. People of sense don't work for NPR or the Brennan Center.

  5. Killing the old folks first sounds like a great plan to stabilise the finances of the NHS in the UK, and besides, after that die-off, nobody will want the vaccine and will grudgingly accept their lifetime lockdown.

    BTW, what rational system of healthcare rationing prioritises preserving the actuarially shortest remaining lives with the least propensity to contribute meaningfully to society?

    This is political kabuki that tells you the real danger COVID-19 poses to the broader society while they continue to scare the masses into blind submission.

    • Replies: @eD
    @The Alarmist

    Not being a psychopath, I am having a hard time keeping up with what is being planned for us, but commentator The Alarmist points to one possibility that I had not considered before, that the vaccine will be given to people who are going to die anyway and be designed to fail, getting everyone else to accept the real goal, permanent lockdowns.

    , @Cortes
    @The Alarmist

    I agree.

    The remodelling is continuing to cover more and more aspects of daily life, witness this gem from Birmingham:

    https://www.rt.com/uk/509139-birmingham-woke-street-names/

    , @Telemachos
    @The Alarmist

    My thoughts exactly. A 70-year-old or even a 65-year-old with diabetes and high blood pressure might still have another 20 or 30 decent years. Someone who's 99 and has advanced dementia and can't walk clearly doesn't. So we prioritize....the former, no? But that's not what it sounds like they're thinking.

  6. Not any racial factor or bickering in the UK as far as getting this vaccination. Blaques don’t get much traction there, all were imported as immigrants. Everyone knows consciously or subliminally that all Blaques in UK came of their own volition, not as slaves. Of course they still agitate, talk loud loud, try to kick up some dust but all know they are frauds, not real Englishmen.

    Here in America the situation is much worse as they play the slavery guilt tripping, blame game on stupide lib whites. Now ramped up into systemic racism.

    Muhammad Ali, previously known as Cassius Clay, held a lot of ill-informed … said “Thank God my granddaddy got on that boat” after a reporter asked, “Champ, …
    https://face2faceafrica.com/article/muhammad-ali-thought-africa-jungle-came-visit

  7. @Hhsiii
    NPR had a segment today on prioritizing the Covid vaccine for prisoners.

    Replies: @Steve Sailer, @Art Deco

    I was thinking about elderly prisoners. Maybe we should prioritize them. But then I got thinking about who is still in prison at very old age: Sirhan Sirhan, Charles Manson, Winston Moseley (Kitty Genovese’s murderer) … guys of that ilk.

    • Replies: @Mike Tre
    @Steve Sailer

    No let's prioritize the elderly prisoners, Steve. They can shut the lights off.


    Thinking about the elderly again makes it seem you are mostly just thinking about yourself and your elderly generation. The natural fact is, you folks are on your way out regardless. How about putting some thought into the ones who are and will suffer the greatest from this psychological manipulation known as "staying safe;" magical masks, social distancing, lock downs, the encouraging of reporting heretics and non-believers to the authorities, etc, etc, etc.

    And just to set the record straight, unwillingness to submit to this vaccination push in not "anti-vaxer" or however you spell it. You sound like the progressives who must label their opponents to gain some rhetorical advantage.

    Further, in regards to this virus overreaction, you are on the side of the cowards, Steve. It's unfortunate based on how you've stood up to PC nonsense for so long.

    Replies: @ScarletNumber

    , @Bragadocious
    @Steve Sailer

    Also Marybeth Tinning, 78. It's odd how she's never mentioned as a notorious mass murderer.

    Replies: @Reg Cæsar

    , @Anonymous
    @Steve Sailer

    Masons been dead for around two years.


    It looks a bit like Canadas immigration algorithm.

    Hairdressers, Convicts, Journalists are right down there in the 5th tier of desired admissibles.

    , @My SIMPLE Pseudonymic Handle
    @Steve Sailer

    Too bad homeboy Charlie Manson kicked the bucket in 2017, or I'm sure he'd be first in line to get the jab.

    , @D. K.
    @Steve Sailer

    Sirhan is the only one of those three who is still alive-- and he is innocent (of the murder for which he was convicted)!

    Replies: @Art Deco

  8. Off-topic

    https://twitter.com/another_xi_123/status/1336467855064231936

    Does anyone in US strategic circles understand China as well as Professor Di Dongsheng of Renmin University understands America?

    • Replies: @Joe Stalin
    @anonymous

    https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=XLt9RnWtdJg

    Replies: @anonymous

  9. A, B, and D are the only serious considerations. They’re all going to suggest that nursing home employees, hospital employees, and clinic employees (provided they have contact with clients in meatspace) are inoculated first and then fractions of the elderly next. If it’s minimize deaths, queue by age in descending order. If it’s minimize life years lost, it might be queue by age according to distance from some point of inflection (say, age 67). If it’s minimize economic damage, one might guess the point of inflection would be earlier, among people old enough to be at heightened risk but young enough to be working as a matter of routine (say, age 60).

  10. from UK Daily Mail

    Warning over UK vaccine rollout as two NHS staff given jab suffer ‘anaphylactic reaction’: Regulators urge people with history of ‘significant’ allergies NOT to have Pfizer injection – just 24 hours after Britain’s mass inoculation kicked off
    Both the people are recovering following the first day of the mass vaccination programme, it is understood
    The NHS in England said that all the trusts involved with the vaccination programme have been informed
    MHRA has given advice anyone who has a history of ‘significant’ allergic reactions should not get the vaccine
    Yesterday the NHS embarked on its colossal plan to vaccinate the entire UK population against coronavirus

    • Replies: @That Would Be Telling
    @clyde


    from UK Daily Mail

    Warning over UK vaccine rollout as two NHS staff given jab suffer ‘anaphylactic reaction’: Regulators urge people with history of ‘significant’ allergies NOT to have Pfizer injection[!!!!!!!!!]
     
    And here I tap out, for the foreseeable future, open discussion forums like iSteve are going to be overwhelmed by every incident, coincident or very possibly not here, of a bad outcome after a "jab". And my domain knowledge pertaining to theory isn't really needed, people with a little statistical knowledge and skill, and confidence in it, will be able to judge the risk/reward benefit from actual experience with the vaccines if they can avoid getting overwhelmed byovert propaganda.

    And you wonder why the FDA is taking its own sweet time in making the decisions for Emergency Use Authorization (EUA) approvals?
  11. @Hhsiii
    NPR had a segment today on prioritizing the Covid vaccine for prisoners.

    Replies: @Steve Sailer, @Art Deco

    No doubt they conceptualize convicts as a client population put upon by deplorables with their rigid ideas about how people ought to behave.

    Since the median age of the prison population is around 35 years and very few are over 60, there aren’t may people there who would be given priority by a person of sense. People of sense don’t work for NPR or the Brennan Center.

    • Agree: hhsiii, AnotherDad
  12. @Steve Sailer
    @Hhsiii

    I was thinking about elderly prisoners. Maybe we should prioritize them. But then I got thinking about who is still in prison at very old age: Sirhan Sirhan, Charles Manson, Winston Moseley (Kitty Genovese's murderer) ... guys of that ilk.

    Replies: @Mike Tre, @Bragadocious, @Anonymous, @My SIMPLE Pseudonymic Handle, @D. K.

    No let’s prioritize the elderly prisoners, Steve. They can shut the lights off.

    Thinking about the elderly again makes it seem you are mostly just thinking about yourself and your elderly generation. The natural fact is, you folks are on your way out regardless. How about putting some thought into the ones who are and will suffer the greatest from this psychological manipulation known as “staying safe;” magical masks, social distancing, lock downs, the encouraging of reporting heretics and non-believers to the authorities, etc, etc, etc.

    And just to set the record straight, unwillingness to submit to this vaccination push in not “anti-vaxer” or however you spell it. You sound like the progressives who must label their opponents to gain some rhetorical advantage.

    Further, in regards to this virus overreaction, you are on the side of the cowards, Steve. It’s unfortunate based on how you’ve stood up to PC nonsense for so long.

    • Replies: @ScarletNumber
    @Mike Tre


    Further, in regards to this virus overreaction, you are on the side of the cowards, Steve. It’s unfortunate based on how you’ve stood up to PC nonsense for so long.
     
    I'm also disappointed in Steve, but I can't say I'm surprised, since he lives as life as a hermit anyway.

    This situation has been great at culling the population of some unneeded elements, despite the protests of some on here. Much like people hating Congress but loving their Congressman, people have a tough time sacrificing someone they love for the common good. My mother has lived her three-score-and-10, so if she were to perish, it would be no great loss. Judge Judy, The People's Court, and Lifetime would simply lose a viewer.

    Replies: @Steve Sailer

  13. “Why haven’t you taken the rushed unprecedented cell altering vaccine, Mr Jeep?”

    “I’m waiting until all POC have it first. I don’t want my whiteness and privilege getting anybody killed”.

  14. Here’s my new theory with the latest Anaphylactic Shock news…

    The vaccine is just the flu jab, or a variation of it.

    There is no Covid, just a bad flu.

    When Trump lost, the vaccine would have been deemed effective

    But with the filing of the Supreme Court Case….the vaccine will rapidly become dangerous and ineffective by the time Trump takes office for a second term

    If…this actually all happens….they overwrote the plot and everything is fake

    • Troll: Corvinus
  15. @Bill Jones
    This should knock a few years off life expectancy, looks like another attempt to Medicare solvent for the next generation.

    Replies: @ScarletNumber, @Truth

    As well as social security. People living too long is a serious problem but no one wants to say that out loud because of grandma, who has been a leech for the last 40 years.

    • Replies: @Art Deco
    @ScarletNumber

    Unless your grandmother is a centenarian, no she hasn't. There are fewer than 100,000 centenarians among the old.

    The median age of people drawing old age benefits is around 72. Over the period running from 1964 to 2011, the FICA levy varied considerably, but the average was around 6.7% on earnings below thresh-hold. The current rate is 7.65%.

    And people aren't living too long. The Congress has refused to prescribe cohort-specific retirement ages (adjustable each year by actuaries) which would ensure that the ratio of retired persons to working persons has a constant value. They've also refused to make substantive and procedural amendments to the disability program to screen out the sketchy claimants.

    Replies: @Jack D, @Buffalo Joe, @ScarletNumber, @prosa123

    , @Buzz Mohawk
    @ScarletNumber

    Nobody is living too long in a modern country that is productive enough to make an endless supply of tchkotchkes, sneakers and ice creams in any color and flavor you want.

    Is the point of life to just work until you die (thus getting out of the way of younger jerks? Jerks who will also work until they die, ad infinitum, ad absurdum?)

    The problem nobody seems able or brave enough to solve is how to involve everyone, of every age, in all this amazing productivity our people created.

    We waste more than we use, for God's sake.

    "It is a tale
    Told by an idiot, full of sound and fury,
    Signifying nothing."

    And some would have us die sooner.

    , @S. Anonyia
    @ScarletNumber

    Good lord. People don’t start drawing Social Security at 40-45. There aren’t many 105 year old Grandma’s out there.

  16. Apparently getting “a shot” isn’t a thing in British English, as this graphic calls it “the jab”.

    Also, the BD on the syringe is Becton Dickinson, a New Jersey medical supplier.

  17. Repeating a couple of previous comments in short, with additions, I believe all we know of the US plan is the CDC’s recommendation, thanks to the mayor of Chicago, we have a bit of evidence there’s specific requirements as a condition of getting Operation Warp Speed (OWS) vaccines. And the U.K. plan is now an operation, our plans which include federalism are still plans prior to the FDA approving one or more Emergency Use Authorizations.

    Logistics also comes into play: it’s been decided that one site will get only one type of vaccine. To vaccinate a long term care facility (LTCF), once you have a surplus of vaccine vs. vaccinating capability, like people to give the shots, all time the latter spends traveling is wasted. So it makes sense to hit a LTCF as few times as possible, ideally once in the period of shift changes, and vaccinate the residents at the same time.

    Based on recent reports, the US only reserved 100 million doses for 50 million people from Pfizer, we won’t get more until the middle of next year. But while we paid nothing up front to Pfizer/BioNTech, we paid a lot to Moderna, so perhaps we’re getting most or all of Moderna’s output. Pfizer also recently announced that due to supply chain problems, they’re going to miss their initial promises by one half.

    So this could drag out until for example the Janssen long term, high risk of one dose, high reward they plan to vaccinate one billion people by the end of 2021, human adenovirus vector vaccine becomes available here. Per the HHS Fact Sheet: Explaining Operation Warp Speed, they were the first to take OWS money, and a lot, $456 million on March 30th, then ~one billion for manufacturing, that’ll get us 100 million doses for 100 million people.

    Novavax, spike protein plus adjuvant!!! is getting similar amounts of money for 100 million doses, per ClinicalTrials.gov, 50 million people , and there’s ~ two billion total going to a “Sanofi and GlaxoSmithKline’s (GSK) investigational adjuvanted vaccine,” per ClinicalTrials.gov they’re still working on formulations and dosing, two different adjuvants, one and two doses, again, 100 million doses if it works out. A great deal also to the AZ/Oxford clown show, which can restart/adjust their Phase III trial here in the US with the new dosing regime and maybe it’ll past muster, again, 100 million doses, 50 million people.

    • Replies: @anon
    @That Would Be Telling

    I suggest you watch the OWS Summit. You left out the J&J single jab coming as early as February. The logistics are less novel than you think, as most of the plan consists of stuff that companies are already doing as their primary job. Fed Ex and UPS for example or Walgreens and CVS. The shippers do overnight to every zip code in the US and 90% of the US is within a few miles of these drug store chains. CVS has done lots and lots of on-sites to distribute the flu vaccine.

    , @anon
    @That Would Be Telling


    Repeating a couple of previous comments in short, with additions
     
    Bzzzt - Beware . "That Would Be Telling" is a pro vaccine AI Bot .

    Replies: @Steve Sailer

  18. UK has fewer than 3% Blacks. Quite a few think of themselves as British first. It would be untenable to make the 97% wait.

    In contrast, America has a lot more signalers.

  19. Opinion polls suggest blacks are more resistant to getting the vaccine. The Washington Post thinks it’s because of Tuskegee. More like because people with lower IQ are more paranoid and superstitious. I seriously doubt more than 5% of blacks know what happened in Tuskegee.

  20. @Steve

    Note that there is some overlap among the 9 categories, e.g., there are frontline healthcare workers who are over 50 and have underlying health conditions

    Intersectionality!

    Actually, the side effects seem fairly serious and FDA hasn’t yet gotten around to the safety part have they? Until I see evidence, I’d have some worries that everyone can tolerate the vaccine.

    It also strikes me that lockdowns are losing support. There may be strategic advantage to vaccines among the younger who contract and spread.

    • Replies: @That Would Be Telling
    @Dr. DoomNGloom


    Actually, the side effects seem fairly serious and FDA hasn’t yet gotten around to the safety part have they? Until I see evidence, I’d have some worries that everyone can tolerate the vaccine.
     
    Ummm, maybe, but short term, absolutely no, and absolutely yes. The gate on the mRNA vaccine companies being able to submit applications for FDA Emergency Use Authorizations was two month of safety data from one half of the people who got the vaccine, based in the observation that almost all bad, long term side effects show up in a month and a half. They had their required efficacy data some time before the required safety data.

    I keep saying people don't know the FDA, and the very idea they'd completely ignore safety before making any sort of approval is beyond ludicrous.

    And most certainly not everyone will be able to tolerate the vaccine, you know for an absolute fact that if you give one to enough people, our immune systems being wild and crazy but mostly in a good way, you will absolutely maim and kill some people.

    For evidence, perhaps read and skim the FDA staff briefing document that will I assume be the basis of tomorrow's FDA meeting?
  21. anon[379] • Disclaimer says:
    @That Would Be Telling
    Repeating a couple of previous comments in short, with additions, I believe all we know of the US plan is the CDC's recommendation, thanks to the mayor of Chicago, we have a bit of evidence there's specific requirements as a condition of getting Operation Warp Speed (OWS) vaccines. And the U.K. plan is now an operation, our plans which include federalism are still plans prior to the FDA approving one or more Emergency Use Authorizations.

    Logistics also comes into play: it's been decided that one site will get only one type of vaccine. To vaccinate a long term care facility (LTCF), once you have a surplus of vaccine vs. vaccinating capability, like people to give the shots, all time the latter spends traveling is wasted. So it makes sense to hit a LTCF as few times as possible, ideally once in the period of shift changes, and vaccinate the residents at the same time.

    Based on recent reports, the US only reserved 100 million doses for 50 million people from Pfizer, we won't get more until the middle of next year. But while we paid nothing up front to Pfizer/BioNTech, we paid a lot to Moderna, so perhaps we're getting most or all of Moderna's output. Pfizer also recently announced that due to supply chain problems, they're going to miss their initial promises by one half.

    So this could drag out until for example the Janssen long term, high risk of one dose, high reward they plan to vaccinate one billion people by the end of 2021, human adenovirus vector vaccine becomes available here. Per the HHS Fact Sheet: Explaining Operation Warp Speed, they were the first to take OWS money, and a lot, $456 million on March 30th, then ~one billion for manufacturing, that'll get us 100 million doses for 100 million people.

    Novavax, spike protein plus adjuvant!!! is getting similar amounts of money for 100 million doses, per ClinicalTrials.gov, 50 million people , and there's ~ two billion total going to a "Sanofi and GlaxoSmithKline's (GSK) investigational adjuvanted vaccine," per ClinicalTrials.gov they're still working on formulations and dosing, two different adjuvants, one and two doses, again, 100 million doses if it works out. A great deal also to the AZ/Oxford clown show, which can restart/adjust their Phase III trial here in the US with the new dosing regime and maybe it'll past muster, again, 100 million doses, 50 million people.

    Replies: @anon, @anon

    I suggest you watch the OWS Summit. You left out the J&J single jab coming as early as February. The logistics are less novel than you think, as most of the plan consists of stuff that companies are already doing as their primary job. Fed Ex and UPS for example or Walgreens and CVS. The shippers do overnight to every zip code in the US and 90% of the US is within a few miles of these drug store chains. CVS has done lots and lots of on-sites to distribute the flu vaccine.

  22. @The Alarmist
    Killing the old folks first sounds like a great plan to stabilise the finances of the NHS in the UK, and besides, after that die-off, nobody will want the vaccine and will grudgingly accept their lifetime lockdown.

    BTW, what rational system of healthcare rationing prioritises preserving the actuarially shortest remaining lives with the least propensity to contribute meaningfully to society?

    This is political kabuki that tells you the real danger COVID-19 poses to the broader society while they continue to scare the masses into blind submission.

    Replies: @eD, @Cortes, @Telemachos

    Not being a psychopath, I am having a hard time keeping up with what is being planned for us, but commentator The Alarmist points to one possibility that I had not considered before, that the vaccine will be given to people who are going to die anyway and be designed to fail, getting everyone else to accept the real goal, permanent lockdowns.

    • Agree: BB753
    • Troll: Corvinus
  23. the vaccine will be given to people who are going to die anyway and be designed to fail,

    If the vaccine is designed to fail then they are doing a really shitty job of it because it is 95% effective.

    • Replies: @The Alarmist
    @Jack D

    So, you believe everything you read? Do you understand how they arrived at that figure?

    They took a large group (30k) and vaccinated half while giving a placebo to the other half. Then they turned them loose into “the wild” with little to no controls for actual exposure to the virus. Then they looked over a fairly short time at the difference between the observed infections in the two groups, and because the placebo group had something on the order of 162 observed infections versus 8 for the vaxx group, they used the difference to arrive at 95% efficacy figure.

    Serious adverse reactions in the vaxx group were found in 0.61% of subjects, which suggests 91 or 92 cases of serious adverse reactions, and there are two known but “coincident” deaths among the vaxx group, so it is hard to make a definitive statement that the vaxx kills or incapacitates at an acceptable level, but the incidence seems to be non-trivial. Scale that up by 20k to approximate the 300m US population, and you get 1.8m serious adverse reactions and 20k to 40k deaths from the vaccine, plus other unintended consequences, like vaccinated people unwittingly becoming asymptomatic spreaders of the virus the vaccine was intended to stop in its tracks because, it turns out, it only attenuates symptoms.

    Sounds like a success to me. I think I’ll wait a while to see how this pans out before rolling up my sleeve.

    Replies: @That Would Be Telling

  24. How ’bout Christmas shoppers? Is that a category they can get to soon enough?

    Yesterday, I went to an Apple store, because I am going to give my wife an iPad for Christmas. (Rose gold with a salmon-colored case, ladies — it’s what she wants.) I’m old-fashioned, so I like to actually see and handle objects before I buy them.

    Well, when I got there, three black men wearing black clothes stopped me at the door. I assume they were security or Apple employees of some kind, but they could just as well have been mostly peaceful protestors. One of them told me nobody goes into the store unless they are picking up something they already ordered online.

    “If you want to look at something, maybe you can go to one of the big box stores like Walmart.”

    Fortunately, the nearest Walmart is twenty miles away. I’m just going to order my wife’s present online and have it delivered to the house.
    .

    • Replies: @Jack D
    @Buzz Mohawk

    Get over it. Brick and mortar shopping is OVAH. I haven't been inside a store since March and I don't miss it - I didn't like going to the mall even when it was still possible. Amazon (and many other online retailers) offer free returns. You can order an item, see and handle it and then if you don't like it you tape the box back up and send it back whence it came.

    Amazon is funny about this - you would think that if they sent you a broken dish that they wouldn't want it back, automatically. You can call them and try to argue your way out of sending back the broken pieces of pottery but the default is that they want it back. But sometimes they would "forget" to give me credit. Nowadays I don't bother arguing anymore, I just send back the pieces - that's the path of least resistance.

    Replies: @Buzz Mohawk, @Polynikes, @PiltdownMan

  25. Vaccine trials typically take ten years. A rushed trial takes three years. In this case we’ve gone from not knowing about the existence of a virus to having a vaccine for it rolled out in under a year.

    Sounds pretty sketchy to me.

    • Replies: @That Would Be Telling
    @Johnny Smoggins


    Vaccine trials typically take ten years. A rushed trial takes three years. In this case we’ve gone from not knowing about the existence of a virus to having a vaccine for it rolled out in under a year.

    Sounds pretty sketchy to me.
     
    I would say your ignorance is your problem, but since you won't contribute to herd immunity, it's lots of people's problems. Vaccine development typically takes ten years, with most of that eaten up by the research lab developing it waiting for their next grant. Trials are at the very end of the process, and these are so far only good enough for FDA Emergency Use Authorizations (EUA), are not licensure for the whole population.

    We've know about SARS type coronaviruses since 2003, and MERS in 2012 confirmed we were going to be plagued, so to speak, with lethal coronaviruses going forward. So work on vaccines for this class of coronaviruses has been going on for a very long time, long enough that Moderna was able to develop its vaccine candidate in two days after SARS-CoV-2 genomes started to be published from the PRC, with a tweak developed for just its sorts of spike proteins to avoid antibody-dependent enhancement (ADE). The only known short cut taken was both mRNA vaccine efforts starting animal testing at the same time as their human Phase I trials, a risky move for the humans, 45 for Moderna, that paid off fantastically.

    That said, mRNA vaccines are new, advanced technology, that's why development and testing could start so much sooner than virus vector vaccines, but in theory they'll be the most safe active COVID-19 vaccines ever. And the evidence so far backs up the theory.
  26. One thing about the British plan which I didn’t notice the first time I saw it is the very large numbers of “carers” for “care home” residents: there are 3 carers for every resident. This is a much larger ratio than I’ve seen cited for the US, where, in the average nursing home, there are about 80 residents and about 40 care givers — 1 carer to 2 residents.

    Presumably, the British plan defines “carer” much more broadly than in the US. But who are these people? And how does it make any sense to vaccinate 3 carers, who presumably aren’t themselves vulnerable to death by Covid, in order to protect 1 resident?

    I can see the claim that, logistically, it makes sense to vaccinate them all at once, at the same site and occasion. But the numbers here suggest that it would significantly delay protecting the genuinely vulnerable.

    • Thanks: northeast
  27. @Steve Sailer
    @Hhsiii

    I was thinking about elderly prisoners. Maybe we should prioritize them. But then I got thinking about who is still in prison at very old age: Sirhan Sirhan, Charles Manson, Winston Moseley (Kitty Genovese's murderer) ... guys of that ilk.

    Replies: @Mike Tre, @Bragadocious, @Anonymous, @My SIMPLE Pseudonymic Handle, @D. K.

    Also Marybeth Tinning, 78. It’s odd how she’s never mentioned as a notorious mass murderer.

    • Replies: @Reg Cæsar
    @Bragadocious


    Also Marybeth Tinning, 78. It’s odd how she’s never mentioned as a notorious mass murderer.
     
    She's out now. Outlived her sentence.

    She was Roe before Roe. Literally:

    https://en.m.wikipedia.org/wiki/Marybeth_Tinning#Early_life
  28. I tend to pay attention to the dog that doesn’t bark.

    And who’s the dog that isn’t barking on vaccines?

    Why, none other than Joe Biden himself.

    Clinton, Bush, and Obama have already promised to take the vaccine, on camera, when their segment of the population is being vaccinated, in order to ease fears of the vaccine.

    Where the hell is Joe Biden on this, or Kamala Harris? Why haven’t they offered to do the same?

    Indeed, where is Joe Biden on any issue relating to the vaccines, including any prioritization plans?

    I haven’t heard a peep from the man or any of his advisors.

    Biden, has, though, said that he intends to ask (force?) Americans to wear masks for his first 100 days. Of course, if we were to implement a roll-out plan that prioritized reducing deaths, instead of virtue-signalling alternatives, it would be absurd to demand of Americans that they put up with masks, and presumably lockdowns, for another 100 days past Jan 20.

    All of which makes me very concerned that the Deep State, Medical Division, will contrive to press priorities that will delay the effective defeat of the disease. Making Joe Biden look good, and robbing Trump of credit, is likely Job #1 for these moral monsters.

    I can only hope that being put to shame by the rapid progress in Britain will stop them from doing their worst.

    • Thanks: That Would Be Telling
    • Replies: @Jack D
    @candid_observer

    Biden has said that he will take the vaccine publicly, so the dog did bark. Next.

    https://www.usatoday.com/story/news/politics/2020/12/03/biden-says-hed-be-happy-join-former-presidents-taking-covid-vaccine-publicly/3819923001/

    Yesterday Biden pledged to have 100 million doses available in his first 100 days, which is a good beginning ( I don't know whether this means 50 million people vaccinated - I assume it does). 100 days from the Inauguration is the end of April so this might be possible based upon the Moderna and Pfizer production rates.

    He also said that he wants the schools reopened.

    I realize that many people here don't want to give the man the benefit of the doubt and they are not pleased about his emphasis on masks but I really don't see a problem with his approach. Until there are enough people vaccinated to confer herd immunity mask wearing is a good idea. If you really want to get rid of masks then the best thing is to get everyone vaccinated and then we can throw the masks away but for now they are a wise precaution.

    Replies: @candid_observer, @S. Anonyia, @Polynikes

    , @That Would Be Telling
    @candid_observer


    I tend to pay attention to the dog that doesn’t bark.

    And who’s the dog that isn’t barking on vaccines?

    Why, none other than Joe Biden himself.
     

    Whoops! We should have read our news earlier in the morning. Joe Biden Pledges to Distribute 100 Million COVID Vaccines in First 100 Days:

    Biden ... made the promise when introducing key members of his public health team on Tuesday....

    “This team will help get at least 100 million COVID vaccine shots into the arms of the American people in the first 100 days,” he said. “100 million shots in the first 100 days.”

    Biden elaborated that his administration “would follow the guidance of science to get the vaccine to those most at risk,” including “healthcare professionals, people in long term care,” and eventually educators.
     

    The latter no doubt because they're a key part of the Democratic party machine, something like 1 in 5 who attend presidential "nomination" conventions, and are making the party and the Left look very bad due to their response to COVID-19 (demanding they work, take the risks of grocery store workers etc. is "racist," you see). OK, if they go back to their babysitting duties, more Americans will be able to work, assuming there's much of an economy left by that point.

    “This will be the most efficient mass-vaccination plan in U.S. history,” the former vice president added.

    Such a “herculean task,” according to Biden, would only be possible if Congress fully funded “vaccine distribution to all corners of the country.” Were Congress not to move quickly, even before his administration took office, Biden suggested that “millions of Americans may wait months longer to get the vaccine” than would normally be required.

    “Without urgent action by this Congress, this month....
     

    I'm from the government. Give me money. Heh, you could even say it's seasonal to demand a "Christmas tree" bill at this time of year.

    On Tuesday, Biden claimed that his administration’s ability to meet its “100 million shots in 100 days” would depend on how fast President Donald Trump’s White House mobilized after either of the vaccines’ approval.

    “We need the Trump administration to act now, though, to purchase the doses it has negotiated with Pfizer and Moderna to scale manufacturing to the U.S. population and the world,” Biden said....
     

    Left unsaid, at least in this article, is why Team Trump wouldn't finish executing their contracts with vaccine companies. Perhaps more of the demand for more money. The total numbers are rather small on the scale the Federal government now operates, and a great deal has already been disbursed to Moderna for R&D, trials, and manufacturing. Pfizer/BioNTech refused all of that, just has:

    July 22: HHS announced up to $1.95 billion in funds to Pfizer for the large-scale manufacturing and nationwide distribution of 100 million doses of their vaccine candidate. The federal government will own the 100 million doses of vaccine initially produced as a result of this agreement, and Pfizer will deliver the doses in the United States if the product successfully receives FDA EUA or licensure, as outlined in FDA guidance, after completing demonstration of safety and efficacy in a large Phase 3 clinical trial, which began July 27th.
     

    Replies: @candid_observer

  29. Anonymous[270] • Disclaimer says:

    The Russian vaccine looked good in its very small clinical trial so far, but the US would probably not be a high priority customer for the Russians. (One suggestion is for the Russians and AstraZeneca to work together.)

    Steve, Russians are not idiots. They are doing exactly the same kind of large-scale study, and they do interim analyses too. They had first IA two weeks ago and, basically (so far), Sputnik V is on a par with mRNA and far superior than “Oxford vaccine” (kind of comical how everything coming from Oxford with regard to COVID-19 turned out to be so very wrong):
    https://sputnikvaccine.com/newsroom/pressreleases/the-first-interim-data-analysis-of-the-sputnik-v-vaccine-against-covid-19-phase-iii-clinical-trials-/

    And although they don’t quite have huge manufacturing capacity (the latest, undoubtedly to be increased as the production starts in elsewhere, is 20M doses/month), they have started mass vaccination: https://www.forbes.com/sites/jamesrodgerseurope/2020/12/05/facing-record-covid-19-case-rise-russia-rolls-out-sputnik-v-vaccine

    So the status is far removed from “small clinical trial” that you have in mind.

  30. @Buzz Mohawk
    How 'bout Christmas shoppers? Is that a category they can get to soon enough?

    Yesterday, I went to an Apple store, because I am going to give my wife an iPad for Christmas. (Rose gold with a salmon-colored case, ladies -- it's what she wants.) I'm old-fashioned, so I like to actually see and handle objects before I buy them.

    Well, when I got there, three black men wearing black clothes stopped me at the door. I assume they were security or Apple employees of some kind, but they could just as well have been mostly peaceful protestors. One of them told me nobody goes into the store unless they are picking up something they already ordered online.

    "If you want to look at something, maybe you can go to one of the big box stores like Walmart."

    Fortunately, the nearest Walmart is twenty miles away. I'm just going to order my wife's present online and have it delivered to the house.
    .
    https://icdn5.digitaltrends.com/image/ipad-pro-rose-gold-1024x700.jpg

    Replies: @Jack D

    Get over it. Brick and mortar shopping is OVAH. I haven’t been inside a store since March and I don’t miss it – I didn’t like going to the mall even when it was still possible. Amazon (and many other online retailers) offer free returns. You can order an item, see and handle it and then if you don’t like it you tape the box back up and send it back whence it came.

    Amazon is funny about this – you would think that if they sent you a broken dish that they wouldn’t want it back, automatically. You can call them and try to argue your way out of sending back the broken pieces of pottery but the default is that they want it back. But sometimes they would “forget” to give me credit. Nowadays I don’t bother arguing anymore, I just send back the pieces – that’s the path of least resistance.

    • Replies: @Buzz Mohawk
    @Jack D

    We're going back to the days of the Sears catalog. I'm old enough to remember. The lingerie section was a personal favorite. They didn't call it "The Wish Book" for nothing.
    .
    https://i.pinimg.com/736x/74/c8/ba/74c8badb396d8e900e646b32d967b8b1--retro-lingerie-sexy-lingerie.jpg

    Replies: @Jack D, @Sgt. Joe Friday

    , @Polynikes
    @Jack D

    You haven’t been to a store since march? Jesus... this site is populated with more ninnies than Twitter.

    Replies: @Steve Sailer, @ScarletNumber

    , @PiltdownMan
    @Jack D


    Get over it. Brick and mortar shopping is OVAH.
     
    PiltdownWoman and PiltdownGirls say it's a real drag to buy women's clothing online. For them, it's important to not just see the item of clothing, but to hold it up to size up the look, and feel the fabric. I've been ordering the same half-a-dozen or so items from an East Coast clothing catalog for the last thirty five years or so, so, as long as they don't go out of business, or succumb to some weird Asian/Gen Z men's ideas of clothing styles, I'm okay.
  31. Show you care more for sacralized groups than for demonized groups

    Aka groups that lack the balls to use active voice.

    Groups don’t demonize themselves, as the saying goes.

  32. @The Alarmist
    Killing the old folks first sounds like a great plan to stabilise the finances of the NHS in the UK, and besides, after that die-off, nobody will want the vaccine and will grudgingly accept their lifetime lockdown.

    BTW, what rational system of healthcare rationing prioritises preserving the actuarially shortest remaining lives with the least propensity to contribute meaningfully to society?

    This is political kabuki that tells you the real danger COVID-19 poses to the broader society while they continue to scare the masses into blind submission.

    Replies: @eD, @Cortes, @Telemachos

    I agree.

    The remodelling is continuing to cover more and more aspects of daily life, witness this gem from Birmingham:

    https://www.rt.com/uk/509139-birmingham-woke-street-names/

  33. @Jack D

    the vaccine will be given to people who are going to die anyway and be designed to fail,
     
    If the vaccine is designed to fail then they are doing a really shitty job of it because it is 95% effective.

    Replies: @The Alarmist

    So, you believe everything you read? Do you understand how they arrived at that figure?

    They took a large group (30k) and vaccinated half while giving a placebo to the other half. Then they turned them loose into “the wild” with little to no controls for actual exposure to the virus. Then they looked over a fairly short time at the difference between the observed infections in the two groups, and because the placebo group had something on the order of 162 observed infections versus 8 for the vaxx group, they used the difference to arrive at 95% efficacy figure.

    Serious adverse reactions in the vaxx group were found in 0.61% of subjects, which suggests 91 or 92 cases of serious adverse reactions, and there are two known but “coincident” deaths among the vaxx group, so it is hard to make a definitive statement that the vaxx kills or incapacitates at an acceptable level, but the incidence seems to be non-trivial. Scale that up by 20k to approximate the 300m US population, and you get 1.8m serious adverse reactions and 20k to 40k deaths from the vaccine, plus other unintended consequences, like vaccinated people unwittingly becoming asymptomatic spreaders of the virus the vaccine was intended to stop in its tracks because, it turns out, it only attenuates symptoms.

    Sounds like a success to me. I think I’ll wait a while to see how this pans out before rolling up my sleeve.

    • Replies: @That Would Be Telling
    @The Alarmist


    Serious adverse reactions in the vaxx group were found in 0.61% of subjects, which suggests 91 or 92 cases of serious adverse reactions, and there are two known but “coincident” deaths among the vaxx group, so it is hard to make a definitive statement that the vaxx kills or incapacitates

     

    Bzzzt! "Incapacitates" for how long? I'll read the FDA staff briefing document if the FDA gives it an Emergency Use Authorization (EUA), but everything I've heard up to now is that like with most or all vaccines, those "serious" adverse reactions are short lived. You are, after all, poking the immune system with a stick, by definition you want a reaction.

    at an acceptable level, but the incidence seems to be non-trivial. Scale that up by 20k to approximate the 300m US population
     
    Strangely enough, the FDA is not run by complete idiots. Not only is this only one of a number of vaccines in the pipeline, not only is Pfizer only going to be able to provide us 100 million doses, 50 million people, before more in mid-2021, an EUA gets you only so far, it's not licensure for the whole population. The EUA even gives an advantage in starting Phase IV early.

    As for the deaths, are you an actuary? Know any statistics? Because those are very small numbers and in favor of the vaccine, see page 33, 2/21621 deaths in the vaccine arm, 4/21631 in the placebo arm.

    [more bogus math], plus other unintended consequences, like vaccinated people unwittingly becoming asymptomatic spreaders of the virus the vaccine was intended to stop in its tracks because, it turns out, it only attenuates symptoms.
     
    Another lie, there's no evidence either way, it's not something you can do in a Phase III trial and explicitly is not an endpoint in either of the mRNA trial protocols, but based on everything we know about this sort of thing, we believe the vaccine will stop transmission for the vast majority who get it.
  34. @Steve Sailer
    @Hhsiii

    I was thinking about elderly prisoners. Maybe we should prioritize them. But then I got thinking about who is still in prison at very old age: Sirhan Sirhan, Charles Manson, Winston Moseley (Kitty Genovese's murderer) ... guys of that ilk.

    Replies: @Mike Tre, @Bragadocious, @Anonymous, @My SIMPLE Pseudonymic Handle, @D. K.

    Masons been dead for around two years.

    It looks a bit like Canadas immigration algorithm.

    Hairdressers, Convicts, Journalists are right down there in the 5th tier of desired admissibles.

  35. @ScarletNumber
    @Bill Jones

    As well as social security. People living too long is a serious problem but no one wants to say that out loud because of grandma, who has been a leech for the last 40 years.

    Replies: @Art Deco, @Buzz Mohawk, @S. Anonyia

    Unless your grandmother is a centenarian, no she hasn’t. There are fewer than 100,000 centenarians among the old.

    The median age of people drawing old age benefits is around 72. Over the period running from 1964 to 2011, the FICA levy varied considerably, but the average was around 6.7% on earnings below thresh-hold. The current rate is 7.65%.

    And people aren’t living too long. The Congress has refused to prescribe cohort-specific retirement ages (adjustable each year by actuaries) which would ensure that the ratio of retired persons to working persons has a constant value. They’ve also refused to make substantive and procedural amendments to the disability program to screen out the sketchy claimants.

    • Replies: @Jack D
    @Art Deco

    People living "too long" is not a problem for any actuarially sound pension scheme, assuming that life expectancies do not increase faster than expected (the long term US trend is that life expectancy goes up around 0.2% per year - since 2014 we have been underperforming and even going negative). The beauty of pooling of risk (if you could call it that) is that for every person who lives 20 years beyond the expectancy, there will be another person who dies 20 years before he gets to collect, so as long as you have done the math right it all works out and the scheme never runs out of money. None of us know which category we will fall into but by joining the scheme we all know that we will receive our pensions for as long as we live beyond the designated retirement age.

    The problem is that Social Security was never an actuarially sound pension scheme, it is a politically driven welfare scheme where benefits are not linked to contributions. Rather they are linked to social welfare goals. As long as the working population was growing, this hid a lot of sins, just like any Ponzi scheme. As long as you can get more and more suckers to sign up, you can use their money to pay out the early joiners. But at some point all Ponzi schemes have to crash. Social Security COULD be fixed by raising retirement ages (people now live a lot longer than in 1934) or reducing benefits, but that would require political courage which is in short supply. If you are a politician and want to lose your next election, campaigning on a platform of cutting Social Security benefits is a good way to do it.

    Replies: @ScarletNumber, @Art Deco

    , @Buffalo Joe
    @Art Deco

    Art, nice reply and I hardly think ScarletNumber would call my 103 year old Mother a leech to her face. At least not with me present. Mom wishes NYS had "Death With Dignity" but abortion is cool, pop the champagne cork cool in NYS, but a reasoned request from a senior isn't. Stay safe.

    Replies: @ScarletNumber, @Art Deco, @Johann Ricke

    , @ScarletNumber
    @Art Deco


    Unless your grandmother is a centenarian, no she hasn’t.
     
    Grandma has been a leech since her youngest child could take care of themselves, so I stand by my 40 years.

    Replies: @Art Deco, @Julian of Norwich

    , @prosa123
    @Art Deco

    [Congress] also refused to make substantive and procedural amendments to the disability program to screen out the sketchy claimants.

    The federal government has chosen not to enforce the existing laws against age discrimination in employment, and in return has expanded the Social Security Disability program. It is their expectation that a 50+ person who cannot get a job will apply for disability rather than pursue legal remedies.

    Replies: @Art Deco

  36. @candid_observer
    I tend to pay attention to the dog that doesn't bark.

    And who's the dog that isn't barking on vaccines?

    Why, none other than Joe Biden himself.

    Clinton, Bush, and Obama have already promised to take the vaccine, on camera, when their segment of the population is being vaccinated, in order to ease fears of the vaccine.

    Where the hell is Joe Biden on this, or Kamala Harris? Why haven't they offered to do the same?

    Indeed, where is Joe Biden on any issue relating to the vaccines, including any prioritization plans?

    I haven't heard a peep from the man or any of his advisors.

    Biden, has, though, said that he intends to ask (force?) Americans to wear masks for his first 100 days. Of course, if we were to implement a roll-out plan that prioritized reducing deaths, instead of virtue-signalling alternatives, it would be absurd to demand of Americans that they put up with masks, and presumably lockdowns, for another 100 days past Jan 20.

    All of which makes me very concerned that the Deep State, Medical Division, will contrive to press priorities that will delay the effective defeat of the disease. Making Joe Biden look good, and robbing Trump of credit, is likely Job #1 for these moral monsters.

    I can only hope that being put to shame by the rapid progress in Britain will stop them from doing their worst.

    Replies: @Jack D, @That Would Be Telling

    Biden has said that he will take the vaccine publicly, so the dog did bark. Next.

    https://www.usatoday.com/story/news/politics/2020/12/03/biden-says-hed-be-happy-join-former-presidents-taking-covid-vaccine-publicly/3819923001/

    Yesterday Biden pledged to have 100 million doses available in his first 100 days, which is a good beginning ( I don’t know whether this means 50 million people vaccinated – I assume it does). 100 days from the Inauguration is the end of April so this might be possible based upon the Moderna and Pfizer production rates.

    He also said that he wants the schools reopened.

    I realize that many people here don’t want to give the man the benefit of the doubt and they are not pleased about his emphasis on masks but I really don’t see a problem with his approach. Until there are enough people vaccinated to confer herd immunity mask wearing is a good idea. If you really want to get rid of masks then the best thing is to get everyone vaccinated and then we can throw the masks away but for now they are a wise precaution.

    • Replies: @candid_observer
    @Jack D

    I obviously missed Biden's agreement to do what Bush, Clinton, and Obama chose to do. I'm surprised it didn't show up at least as prominently in the news as did the offer of the the three previous Presidents. Nonetheless, it's pretty odd that it was the three previous Presidents, rather than Biden himself, who first offered to do this. Who's the leader here? Perhaps that's why the media didn't make as big a deal of it.

    In any case, I just don't understand the general obsession with "herd immunity", even in circumstances in which all of the truly vulnerable populations are protected. Why isn't the criterion the reduction of consequences from the disease to levels at or below those of an ordinary flu? Why buy into the idea that what counts is number of cases?

    And in a rational prioritization scheme, it should not require anything like 100 days after Jan 20 for us to achieve that reduction in consequences. That would be the end of April. According to the head of the Trump vaccine effort, about 100M people will get the vaccine by the end of February:

    https://www.cnbc.com/2020/12/02/trump-covid-vaccine-czar-says-us-should-be-able-to-immunize-nearly-third-of-population-by-end-of-february.html

    This would take us very far into the potential reduction of deaths by the vaccines. Deaths should occur at a very small fraction of the rate today, likely an order of magnitude lower.

    If this is achieved, why should we be wearing masks and enduring lockdowns for two more costly months? And why should Joe Biden be demanding, in advance of actual results, that we wear masks for 100 days? How is that science, rather than pure politics?

    , @S. Anonyia
    @Jack D

    I don’t care about the masks but he better not essentially shut down interstate travel and movement like the California governor.

    , @Polynikes
    @Jack D

    Masks are not a wide precaution. And Biden was for school closures all summer and even released a campaign ad slamming Trump for calling for schools to be open.

  37. @candid_observer
    I tend to pay attention to the dog that doesn't bark.

    And who's the dog that isn't barking on vaccines?

    Why, none other than Joe Biden himself.

    Clinton, Bush, and Obama have already promised to take the vaccine, on camera, when their segment of the population is being vaccinated, in order to ease fears of the vaccine.

    Where the hell is Joe Biden on this, or Kamala Harris? Why haven't they offered to do the same?

    Indeed, where is Joe Biden on any issue relating to the vaccines, including any prioritization plans?

    I haven't heard a peep from the man or any of his advisors.

    Biden, has, though, said that he intends to ask (force?) Americans to wear masks for his first 100 days. Of course, if we were to implement a roll-out plan that prioritized reducing deaths, instead of virtue-signalling alternatives, it would be absurd to demand of Americans that they put up with masks, and presumably lockdowns, for another 100 days past Jan 20.

    All of which makes me very concerned that the Deep State, Medical Division, will contrive to press priorities that will delay the effective defeat of the disease. Making Joe Biden look good, and robbing Trump of credit, is likely Job #1 for these moral monsters.

    I can only hope that being put to shame by the rapid progress in Britain will stop them from doing their worst.

    Replies: @Jack D, @That Would Be Telling

    I tend to pay attention to the dog that doesn’t bark.

    And who’s the dog that isn’t barking on vaccines?

    Why, none other than Joe Biden himself.

    Whoops! We should have read our news earlier in the morning. Joe Biden Pledges to Distribute 100 Million COVID Vaccines in First 100 Days:

    Biden … made the promise when introducing key members of his public health team on Tuesday….

    “This team will help get at least 100 million COVID vaccine shots into the arms of the American people in the first 100 days,” he said. “100 million shots in the first 100 days.”

    Biden elaborated that his administration “would follow the guidance of science to get the vaccine to those most at risk,” including “healthcare professionals, people in long term care,” and eventually educators.

    The latter no doubt because they’re a key part of the Democratic party machine, something like 1 in 5 who attend presidential “nomination” conventions, and are making the party and the Left look very bad due to their response to COVID-19 (demanding they work, take the risks of grocery store workers etc. is “racist,” you see). OK, if they go back to their babysitting duties, more Americans will be able to work, assuming there’s much of an economy left by that point.

    “This will be the most efficient mass-vaccination plan in U.S. history,” the former vice president added.

    Such a “herculean task,” according to Biden, would only be possible if Congress fully funded “vaccine distribution to all corners of the country.” Were Congress not to move quickly, even before his administration took office, Biden suggested that “millions of Americans may wait months longer to get the vaccine” than would normally be required.

    “Without urgent action by this Congress, this month….

    I’m from the government. Give me money. Heh, you could even say it’s seasonal to demand a “Christmas tree” bill at this time of year.

    On Tuesday, Biden claimed that his administration’s ability to meet its “100 million shots in 100 days” would depend on how fast President Donald Trump’s White House mobilized after either of the vaccines’ approval.

    “We need the Trump administration to act now, though, to purchase the doses it has negotiated with Pfizer and Moderna to scale manufacturing to the U.S. population and the world,” Biden said….

    Left unsaid, at least in this article, is why Team Trump wouldn’t finish executing their contracts with vaccine companies. Perhaps more of the demand for more money. The total numbers are rather small on the scale the Federal government now operates, and a great deal has already been disbursed to Moderna for R&D, trials, and manufacturing. Pfizer/BioNTech refused all of that, just has:

    July 22: HHS announced up to $1.95 billion in funds to Pfizer for the large-scale manufacturing and nationwide distribution of 100 million doses of their vaccine candidate. The federal government will own the 100 million doses of vaccine initially produced as a result of this agreement, and Pfizer will deliver the doses in the United States if the product successfully receives FDA EUA or licensure, as outlined in FDA guidance, after completing demonstration of safety and efficacy in a large Phase 3 clinical trial, which began July 27th.

    • Replies: @candid_observer
    @That Would Be Telling

    I'm struck by how unremarkable and unaggressive is the Biden pledge of 100M doses in 100 days, given that virtually every projection I've seen would put this below the lower most bound.

    This isn't exactly what I'd call a big commitment, or even any kind of real commitment.

    Replies: @The Alarmist

  38. @Art Deco
    @ScarletNumber

    Unless your grandmother is a centenarian, no she hasn't. There are fewer than 100,000 centenarians among the old.

    The median age of people drawing old age benefits is around 72. Over the period running from 1964 to 2011, the FICA levy varied considerably, but the average was around 6.7% on earnings below thresh-hold. The current rate is 7.65%.

    And people aren't living too long. The Congress has refused to prescribe cohort-specific retirement ages (adjustable each year by actuaries) which would ensure that the ratio of retired persons to working persons has a constant value. They've also refused to make substantive and procedural amendments to the disability program to screen out the sketchy claimants.

    Replies: @Jack D, @Buffalo Joe, @ScarletNumber, @prosa123

    People living “too long” is not a problem for any actuarially sound pension scheme, assuming that life expectancies do not increase faster than expected (the long term US trend is that life expectancy goes up around 0.2% per year – since 2014 we have been underperforming and even going negative). The beauty of pooling of risk (if you could call it that) is that for every person who lives 20 years beyond the expectancy, there will be another person who dies 20 years before he gets to collect, so as long as you have done the math right it all works out and the scheme never runs out of money. None of us know which category we will fall into but by joining the scheme we all know that we will receive our pensions for as long as we live beyond the designated retirement age.

    The problem is that Social Security was never an actuarially sound pension scheme, it is a politically driven welfare scheme where benefits are not linked to contributions. Rather they are linked to social welfare goals. As long as the working population was growing, this hid a lot of sins, just like any Ponzi scheme. As long as you can get more and more suckers to sign up, you can use their money to pay out the early joiners. But at some point all Ponzi schemes have to crash. Social Security COULD be fixed by raising retirement ages (people now live a lot longer than in 1934) or reducing benefits, but that would require political courage which is in short supply. If you are a politician and want to lose your next election, campaigning on a platform of cutting Social Security benefits is a good way to do it.

    • Replies: @ScarletNumber
    @Jack D


    People living “too long” is not a problem for any actuarially sound pension scheme ... The problem is that Social Security was never an actuarially sound pension scheme, it is a politically driven welfare scheme where benefits are not linked to contributions
     
    I find it funny that the first sentence of your second paragraph refutes the first sentence of your first paragraph. I do have to say that your statement isn't literally true, as the amount of your payment is a function of how much you contributed.

    Replies: @Jack D

    , @Art Deco
    @Jack D

    It's not a pension scheme, it's an income transfer scheme. Pension funds and insurance companies make investments, which Social Security does not. It is not a Ponzi scheme and calling it that is a stupid and dishonest rhetorical exercise (one favored by libertard trash). Ponzi schemes are dependent on voluntary recruitment and collapse in a matter of months (the wild outlier being Bernie Madoff's scam). It isn't a 'welfare scheme' either because people contribute and then draw benefits over the life cycle. It doesn't require 'political courage' to repair. Congress just cannot be bothered with doing anything that doesn't pay off some rent-seeking constituency. What Henry Paulson said, "Congress does nothing unless there's a crisis" applies here.

    Replies: @Jack D

  39. https://www.mdpi.com/1660-4601/17/22/8674

    Because destroying kid’s lives just isn’t enough!

  40. @Andrew M
    Prioritizing care home residents doesn’t satisfy any of your goals A through E. The idea is to allow care home residents, who have essentially been locked up since March, to finally see their families again. I propose an additional conflicting goal:

    F. Maximize happiness

    Replies: @Steve Sailer, @Buffalo Joe, @AnotherDad

    Andrew, brillant comment. My 103 year old Mother doesn’t want the stinking vaccine. She wants Eternal Rest. Thanksgiving was to be a day out of quarantine and a chance for her to hold her newest great grandchild. andrew, fuck you, cuomo instituted new rules just before the holiday. I would need to get mom tested and of course a negative test before she could return to the assisted living facility. Where does one get that done on Thanksgiving? And an aside, Mom won’t stay over night at my house or my brother’s. Thanksgiving we all trooped over and visited Mom through her window. Classic, make you teary eyed, photo of Mom’s hand against the glass and the baby’s hand against the outside pane. PS. the test rule was changed on Thanksgiving to a mandated test if she stayed out for 24 or more hours. A staff memeber tested possitive so they are all in quarantine again. PSS. cuomo’s mother was going to travel and join him for Thanksgiving, but deserved push back made him cancel that trip or so we were told. Stay safe.

  41. @Art Deco
    @ScarletNumber

    Unless your grandmother is a centenarian, no she hasn't. There are fewer than 100,000 centenarians among the old.

    The median age of people drawing old age benefits is around 72. Over the period running from 1964 to 2011, the FICA levy varied considerably, but the average was around 6.7% on earnings below thresh-hold. The current rate is 7.65%.

    And people aren't living too long. The Congress has refused to prescribe cohort-specific retirement ages (adjustable each year by actuaries) which would ensure that the ratio of retired persons to working persons has a constant value. They've also refused to make substantive and procedural amendments to the disability program to screen out the sketchy claimants.

    Replies: @Jack D, @Buffalo Joe, @ScarletNumber, @prosa123

    Art, nice reply and I hardly think ScarletNumber would call my 103 year old Mother a leech to her face. At least not with me present. Mom wishes NYS had “Death With Dignity” but abortion is cool, pop the champagne cork cool in NYS, but a reasoned request from a senior isn’t. Stay safe.

    • Replies: @ScarletNumber
    @Buffalo Joe

    If I knew you in person, I wouldn't say this, but since this is the internet, I have no problem calling your mother a leech. Good for her for wanting to go Kevorkian. We need more like her.

    Replies: @Buffalo Joe, @Lurker

    , @Art Deco
    @Buffalo Joe

    You're not going to get 'reasonable requests from seniors.' You're going to get people offed for the convenience of the younger generation or the convenience of institutional operators. What goes on now in nursing homes and hospitals is troubling.

    , @Johann Ricke
    @Buffalo Joe


    Mom wishes NYS had “Death With Dignity” but abortion is cool, pop the champagne cork cool in NYS, but a reasoned request from a senior isn’t.
     
    The way it works in countries that have implemented euthanasia is that the people being killed have very little input, and are subjected to intense pressure from people who should be defending their interests rather than trying to kill their loved ones for their own personal benefit. The pressure to agree to be killed isn't just from relatives and friends - it's also from people in the medical profession.
  42. @Jack D
    @Buzz Mohawk

    Get over it. Brick and mortar shopping is OVAH. I haven't been inside a store since March and I don't miss it - I didn't like going to the mall even when it was still possible. Amazon (and many other online retailers) offer free returns. You can order an item, see and handle it and then if you don't like it you tape the box back up and send it back whence it came.

    Amazon is funny about this - you would think that if they sent you a broken dish that they wouldn't want it back, automatically. You can call them and try to argue your way out of sending back the broken pieces of pottery but the default is that they want it back. But sometimes they would "forget" to give me credit. Nowadays I don't bother arguing anymore, I just send back the pieces - that's the path of least resistance.

    Replies: @Buzz Mohawk, @Polynikes, @PiltdownMan

    We’re going back to the days of the Sears catalog. I’m old enough to remember. The lingerie section was a personal favorite. They didn’t call it “The Wish Book” for nothing.
    .

    • Agree: New Dealer
    • Replies: @Jack D
    @Buzz Mohawk

    The sad thing is that Sears should have been Amazon. They (at one time) had all the infrastructure for selling stuff online (minus the online part) - the warehouses, the picking, packing and shipping infrastructure, etc. But they completely discarded all of that and switched to a B&M format.

    Replies: @prosa123, @Buzz Mohawk, @epebble

    , @Sgt. Joe Friday
    @Buzz Mohawk

    And if there was such a thing as the Sears "Wish Book" nowadays you can be sure the lingerie section would be chock-full of fatties, trannies, and who knows what else.

  43. @Art Deco
    @ScarletNumber

    Unless your grandmother is a centenarian, no she hasn't. There are fewer than 100,000 centenarians among the old.

    The median age of people drawing old age benefits is around 72. Over the period running from 1964 to 2011, the FICA levy varied considerably, but the average was around 6.7% on earnings below thresh-hold. The current rate is 7.65%.

    And people aren't living too long. The Congress has refused to prescribe cohort-specific retirement ages (adjustable each year by actuaries) which would ensure that the ratio of retired persons to working persons has a constant value. They've also refused to make substantive and procedural amendments to the disability program to screen out the sketchy claimants.

    Replies: @Jack D, @Buffalo Joe, @ScarletNumber, @prosa123

    Unless your grandmother is a centenarian, no she hasn’t.

    Grandma has been a leech since her youngest child could take care of themselves, so I stand by my 40 years.

    • Replies: @Art Deco
    @ScarletNumber

    Grandma has been a leech since her youngest child could take care of themselves, so I stand by my 40 years.

    She's likely dismayed that her grandson is a psychopath.

    , @Julian of Norwich
    @ScarletNumber

    Or, since her children reached the age of responsibility, grandma has invested much of her time, effort and income providing continuing support for her adult children, thereby improving their quality of life and the survivability of their offspring, the which includes you?

  44. @Jack D
    @Art Deco

    People living "too long" is not a problem for any actuarially sound pension scheme, assuming that life expectancies do not increase faster than expected (the long term US trend is that life expectancy goes up around 0.2% per year - since 2014 we have been underperforming and even going negative). The beauty of pooling of risk (if you could call it that) is that for every person who lives 20 years beyond the expectancy, there will be another person who dies 20 years before he gets to collect, so as long as you have done the math right it all works out and the scheme never runs out of money. None of us know which category we will fall into but by joining the scheme we all know that we will receive our pensions for as long as we live beyond the designated retirement age.

    The problem is that Social Security was never an actuarially sound pension scheme, it is a politically driven welfare scheme where benefits are not linked to contributions. Rather they are linked to social welfare goals. As long as the working population was growing, this hid a lot of sins, just like any Ponzi scheme. As long as you can get more and more suckers to sign up, you can use their money to pay out the early joiners. But at some point all Ponzi schemes have to crash. Social Security COULD be fixed by raising retirement ages (people now live a lot longer than in 1934) or reducing benefits, but that would require political courage which is in short supply. If you are a politician and want to lose your next election, campaigning on a platform of cutting Social Security benefits is a good way to do it.

    Replies: @ScarletNumber, @Art Deco

    People living “too long” is not a problem for any actuarially sound pension scheme … The problem is that Social Security was never an actuarially sound pension scheme, it is a politically driven welfare scheme where benefits are not linked to contributions

    I find it funny that the first sentence of your second paragraph refutes the first sentence of your first paragraph. I do have to say that your statement isn’t literally true, as the amount of your payment is a function of how much you contributed.

    • Replies: @Jack D
    @ScarletNumber


    the amount of your payment is a function of how much you contributed.
     
    That was Roosevelt's brilliance - he scrambled a contribution based pension scheme with a welfare scheme so that no one can tell where one ends and one begins. Your pension is SOMEWHAT based on your contributions, but not in a manner that is actuarially sound. High earners subsidize the low earners. People working now subsidize people who are retired.

    You CAN have actuarially sound national retirement schemes where your pension is strictly based on how much you have paid in - other countries have them. It's not that hard. You pay certain a portion of your income into something like a mandatory Christmas Club every month and then at retirement age whatever your balance is, with interest, is used to buy an annuity (An annuity is a life insurance type scheme where in exchange for a certain lump sum, an insurance company agrees to pay you a monthly amount for as long as you live). Because the forced savings in your account are mandatory and non-withdrawable before retirement you can't blow them on rims or weaves so everyone (who works) is assured of a pension. People who don't have enough of their own pension to survive can apply for welfare benefits just like other poor people. But we don't have that, not even close.

    Replies: @That Would Be Telling, @Reg Cæsar

  45. @ScarletNumber
    @Bill Jones

    As well as social security. People living too long is a serious problem but no one wants to say that out loud because of grandma, who has been a leech for the last 40 years.

    Replies: @Art Deco, @Buzz Mohawk, @S. Anonyia

    Nobody is living too long in a modern country that is productive enough to make an endless supply of tchkotchkes, sneakers and ice creams in any color and flavor you want.

    Is the point of life to just work until you die (thus getting out of the way of younger jerks? Jerks who will also work until they die, ad infinitum, ad absurdum?)

    The problem nobody seems able or brave enough to solve is how to involve everyone, of every age, in all this amazing productivity our people created.

    We waste more than we use, for God’s sake.

    “It is a tale
    Told by an idiot, full of sound and fury,
    Signifying nothing.”

    And some would have us die sooner.

  46. @Jack D
    @candid_observer

    Biden has said that he will take the vaccine publicly, so the dog did bark. Next.

    https://www.usatoday.com/story/news/politics/2020/12/03/biden-says-hed-be-happy-join-former-presidents-taking-covid-vaccine-publicly/3819923001/

    Yesterday Biden pledged to have 100 million doses available in his first 100 days, which is a good beginning ( I don't know whether this means 50 million people vaccinated - I assume it does). 100 days from the Inauguration is the end of April so this might be possible based upon the Moderna and Pfizer production rates.

    He also said that he wants the schools reopened.

    I realize that many people here don't want to give the man the benefit of the doubt and they are not pleased about his emphasis on masks but I really don't see a problem with his approach. Until there are enough people vaccinated to confer herd immunity mask wearing is a good idea. If you really want to get rid of masks then the best thing is to get everyone vaccinated and then we can throw the masks away but for now they are a wise precaution.

    Replies: @candid_observer, @S. Anonyia, @Polynikes

    I obviously missed Biden’s agreement to do what Bush, Clinton, and Obama chose to do. I’m surprised it didn’t show up at least as prominently in the news as did the offer of the the three previous Presidents. Nonetheless, it’s pretty odd that it was the three previous Presidents, rather than Biden himself, who first offered to do this. Who’s the leader here? Perhaps that’s why the media didn’t make as big a deal of it.

    In any case, I just don’t understand the general obsession with “herd immunity”, even in circumstances in which all of the truly vulnerable populations are protected. Why isn’t the criterion the reduction of consequences from the disease to levels at or below those of an ordinary flu? Why buy into the idea that what counts is number of cases?

    And in a rational prioritization scheme, it should not require anything like 100 days after Jan 20 for us to achieve that reduction in consequences. That would be the end of April. According to the head of the Trump vaccine effort, about 100M people will get the vaccine by the end of February:

    https://www.cnbc.com/2020/12/02/trump-covid-vaccine-czar-says-us-should-be-able-to-immunize-nearly-third-of-population-by-end-of-february.html

    This would take us very far into the potential reduction of deaths by the vaccines. Deaths should occur at a very small fraction of the rate today, likely an order of magnitude lower.

    If this is achieved, why should we be wearing masks and enduring lockdowns for two more costly months? And why should Joe Biden be demanding, in advance of actual results, that we wear masks for 100 days? How is that science, rather than pure politics?

  47. Actually, we *should* prioritize blacks first. They’re the ones I see – almost everywhere – using face masks as “Chin Diapers”. Those that I see with masks over their mouths almost always have their noses out. And rather than leaving their kids at home while they shop to reduce exposure, they always seem to have several in tow.

    Couple this with the fact that whites are terrified to say anything to them for this reckless behavior (for fear of being labeled “racist”), and you can see how it might be better for everyone if we gave the shot to blacks/BIPOCS first. As an added bonus, it’ll give the rest of us time to see if there are any dangerous side effects with little risk to ourselves.

    The popular narrative these days is that those evil “Karens” are refusing to wear masks, but this has not been my experience.

  48. @Buffalo Joe
    @Art Deco

    Art, nice reply and I hardly think ScarletNumber would call my 103 year old Mother a leech to her face. At least not with me present. Mom wishes NYS had "Death With Dignity" but abortion is cool, pop the champagne cork cool in NYS, but a reasoned request from a senior isn't. Stay safe.

    Replies: @ScarletNumber, @Art Deco, @Johann Ricke

    If I knew you in person, I wouldn’t say this, but since this is the internet, I have no problem calling your mother a leech. Good for her for wanting to go Kevorkian. We need more like her.

    • Replies: @Buffalo Joe
    @ScarletNumber

    Scarlet, well played my friend, Stay safe.

    , @Lurker
    @ScarletNumber

    Perhaps you could lead by example?

    "Be the change you want to see in the world."

  49. @That Would Be Telling
    @candid_observer


    I tend to pay attention to the dog that doesn’t bark.

    And who’s the dog that isn’t barking on vaccines?

    Why, none other than Joe Biden himself.
     

    Whoops! We should have read our news earlier in the morning. Joe Biden Pledges to Distribute 100 Million COVID Vaccines in First 100 Days:

    Biden ... made the promise when introducing key members of his public health team on Tuesday....

    “This team will help get at least 100 million COVID vaccine shots into the arms of the American people in the first 100 days,” he said. “100 million shots in the first 100 days.”

    Biden elaborated that his administration “would follow the guidance of science to get the vaccine to those most at risk,” including “healthcare professionals, people in long term care,” and eventually educators.
     

    The latter no doubt because they're a key part of the Democratic party machine, something like 1 in 5 who attend presidential "nomination" conventions, and are making the party and the Left look very bad due to their response to COVID-19 (demanding they work, take the risks of grocery store workers etc. is "racist," you see). OK, if they go back to their babysitting duties, more Americans will be able to work, assuming there's much of an economy left by that point.

    “This will be the most efficient mass-vaccination plan in U.S. history,” the former vice president added.

    Such a “herculean task,” according to Biden, would only be possible if Congress fully funded “vaccine distribution to all corners of the country.” Were Congress not to move quickly, even before his administration took office, Biden suggested that “millions of Americans may wait months longer to get the vaccine” than would normally be required.

    “Without urgent action by this Congress, this month....
     

    I'm from the government. Give me money. Heh, you could even say it's seasonal to demand a "Christmas tree" bill at this time of year.

    On Tuesday, Biden claimed that his administration’s ability to meet its “100 million shots in 100 days” would depend on how fast President Donald Trump’s White House mobilized after either of the vaccines’ approval.

    “We need the Trump administration to act now, though, to purchase the doses it has negotiated with Pfizer and Moderna to scale manufacturing to the U.S. population and the world,” Biden said....
     

    Left unsaid, at least in this article, is why Team Trump wouldn't finish executing their contracts with vaccine companies. Perhaps more of the demand for more money. The total numbers are rather small on the scale the Federal government now operates, and a great deal has already been disbursed to Moderna for R&D, trials, and manufacturing. Pfizer/BioNTech refused all of that, just has:

    July 22: HHS announced up to $1.95 billion in funds to Pfizer for the large-scale manufacturing and nationwide distribution of 100 million doses of their vaccine candidate. The federal government will own the 100 million doses of vaccine initially produced as a result of this agreement, and Pfizer will deliver the doses in the United States if the product successfully receives FDA EUA or licensure, as outlined in FDA guidance, after completing demonstration of safety and efficacy in a large Phase 3 clinical trial, which began July 27th.
     

    Replies: @candid_observer

    I’m struck by how unremarkable and unaggressive is the Biden pledge of 100M doses in 100 days, given that virtually every projection I’ve seen would put this below the lower most bound.

    This isn’t exactly what I’d call a big commitment, or even any kind of real commitment.

    • Replies: @The Alarmist
    @candid_observer

    Biden says 100 million, and nobody asks what will be done for the other 225 million?

    Replies: @Travis

  50. @Jack D
    @Art Deco

    People living "too long" is not a problem for any actuarially sound pension scheme, assuming that life expectancies do not increase faster than expected (the long term US trend is that life expectancy goes up around 0.2% per year - since 2014 we have been underperforming and even going negative). The beauty of pooling of risk (if you could call it that) is that for every person who lives 20 years beyond the expectancy, there will be another person who dies 20 years before he gets to collect, so as long as you have done the math right it all works out and the scheme never runs out of money. None of us know which category we will fall into but by joining the scheme we all know that we will receive our pensions for as long as we live beyond the designated retirement age.

    The problem is that Social Security was never an actuarially sound pension scheme, it is a politically driven welfare scheme where benefits are not linked to contributions. Rather they are linked to social welfare goals. As long as the working population was growing, this hid a lot of sins, just like any Ponzi scheme. As long as you can get more and more suckers to sign up, you can use their money to pay out the early joiners. But at some point all Ponzi schemes have to crash. Social Security COULD be fixed by raising retirement ages (people now live a lot longer than in 1934) or reducing benefits, but that would require political courage which is in short supply. If you are a politician and want to lose your next election, campaigning on a platform of cutting Social Security benefits is a good way to do it.

    Replies: @ScarletNumber, @Art Deco

    It’s not a pension scheme, it’s an income transfer scheme. Pension funds and insurance companies make investments, which Social Security does not. It is not a Ponzi scheme and calling it that is a stupid and dishonest rhetorical exercise (one favored by libertard trash). Ponzi schemes are dependent on voluntary recruitment and collapse in a matter of months (the wild outlier being Bernie Madoff’s scam). It isn’t a ‘welfare scheme’ either because people contribute and then draw benefits over the life cycle. It doesn’t require ‘political courage’ to repair. Congress just cannot be bothered with doing anything that doesn’t pay off some rent-seeking constituency. What Henry Paulson said, “Congress does nothing unless there’s a crisis” applies here.

    • Agree: utu
    • Replies: @Jack D
    @Art Deco


    It’s not a pension scheme, it’s an income transfer scheme.
     
    It's BOTH! It's a floor wax AND a dessert topping!

    https://www.nbc.com/saturday-night-live/video/shimmer-floor-wax/n8625

    Arguably, your contributions are "invested" by the government in US Treasury bonds, which are the finest, most risk free type of investment that there is. Of course, the reality is that they just take your pension contributions and spend them immediately and give the Social Security "Trust Fund" a piece of paper that says "IOU One Trillion $ - US Treasury". But if you look at it another way, they have "invested" your money in government bonds.
  51. @ScarletNumber
    @Art Deco


    Unless your grandmother is a centenarian, no she hasn’t.
     
    Grandma has been a leech since her youngest child could take care of themselves, so I stand by my 40 years.

    Replies: @Art Deco, @Julian of Norwich

    Grandma has been a leech since her youngest child could take care of themselves, so I stand by my 40 years.

    She’s likely dismayed that her grandson is a psychopath.

    • Agree: S. Anonyia, Johann Ricke
  52. @Buffalo Joe
    @Art Deco

    Art, nice reply and I hardly think ScarletNumber would call my 103 year old Mother a leech to her face. At least not with me present. Mom wishes NYS had "Death With Dignity" but abortion is cool, pop the champagne cork cool in NYS, but a reasoned request from a senior isn't. Stay safe.

    Replies: @ScarletNumber, @Art Deco, @Johann Ricke

    You’re not going to get ‘reasonable requests from seniors.’ You’re going to get people offed for the convenience of the younger generation or the convenience of institutional operators. What goes on now in nursing homes and hospitals is troubling.

  53. One thing about the British plan that surprises me: it claims that it will reach the final stage, vaccinating those above 50 but below 55, by mid January.

    How is that possible, when comparing the situation to the US? It would seem that it would take us to at least the end of February to reach that stage, more because of availability of doses than because of starting late because of the FDA.

    Does Britain really have access to more doses per capita than the US? Why?

    It makes me wonder too if they haven’t factored in the vaccine refusal population into their projections.

    The US will probably do well to do the same.

  54. @Buzz Mohawk
    @Jack D

    We're going back to the days of the Sears catalog. I'm old enough to remember. The lingerie section was a personal favorite. They didn't call it "The Wish Book" for nothing.
    .
    https://i.pinimg.com/736x/74/c8/ba/74c8badb396d8e900e646b32d967b8b1--retro-lingerie-sexy-lingerie.jpg

    Replies: @Jack D, @Sgt. Joe Friday

    The sad thing is that Sears should have been Amazon. They (at one time) had all the infrastructure for selling stuff online (minus the online part) – the warehouses, the picking, packing and shipping infrastructure, etc. But they completely discarded all of that and switched to a B&M format.

    • Replies: @prosa123
    @Jack D

    The sad thing is that Sears should have been Amazon. They (at one time) had all the infrastructure for selling stuff online (minus the online part) – the warehouses, the picking, packing and shipping infrastructure, etc. But they completely discarded all of that and switched to a B&M format.


    Walmart is doing what may well be the best of both worlds. They have a huge number of physical stores, of course, most of which do very good business, and simultaneously are greatly ramping up their online presence. Their plan is for these two sales channels to be complimentary rather than competitive.
    As for Sears, it seems to be fading quietly away. For a while they would make periodic annoucements about mass store closings but now the closings happen piecemeal with little publicity. The last I heard the combined Sears + Kmart nationwide store count was well under 100, and may be just over 50 by now.

    Replies: @Jack D

    , @Buzz Mohawk
    @Jack D


    The sad thing is that Sears should have been Amazon.
     
    Exactly. They were, minus the internet, as you say.

    This is something I thought about years ago now. (Time flies.) You are exactly right.

    PS: Thank you for replying to my comment. As soon as the editing time expired, I realized I was stuck having posted a giant image of vintage women in underwear -- on a thread about vaccines. You have given it a modicum of legitimacy, while I regret posting it in that form. (This is a familiar feeling for me here.)

    Replies: @JerseyJeffersonian, @candid_observer, @donut

    , @epebble
    @Jack D

    Sears was a merchant. Amazon is a technology company that sells stuff. It is like comparing General Motors to NASA.

    For example, they are giving Intel a scare for the money! Imagine producing high end data center grade CPUs at a better price/performance than Intel.

    https://www.businesswire.com/news/home/20200611005895/en/AWS-Announces-General-Availability-of-the-Sixth-Generation-of-Amazon-EC2-Instances-Powered-By-AWS-Graviton2-Processors

    Not just high end chips; In AI (Artificial Intelligence), Amazon is selling Echo Dots for like $40 in BestBuy. IBM, has either buried or kept in coma, their Watson.

    Sears vs. Amazon is like Chrysler vs. Tesla.

    Replies: @That Would Be Telling

  55. @Buzz Mohawk
    @Jack D

    We're going back to the days of the Sears catalog. I'm old enough to remember. The lingerie section was a personal favorite. They didn't call it "The Wish Book" for nothing.
    .
    https://i.pinimg.com/736x/74/c8/ba/74c8badb396d8e900e646b32d967b8b1--retro-lingerie-sexy-lingerie.jpg

    Replies: @Jack D, @Sgt. Joe Friday

    And if there was such a thing as the Sears “Wish Book” nowadays you can be sure the lingerie section would be chock-full of fatties, trannies, and who knows what else.

  56. @ScarletNumber
    @Jack D


    People living “too long” is not a problem for any actuarially sound pension scheme ... The problem is that Social Security was never an actuarially sound pension scheme, it is a politically driven welfare scheme where benefits are not linked to contributions
     
    I find it funny that the first sentence of your second paragraph refutes the first sentence of your first paragraph. I do have to say that your statement isn't literally true, as the amount of your payment is a function of how much you contributed.

    Replies: @Jack D

    the amount of your payment is a function of how much you contributed.

    That was Roosevelt’s brilliance – he scrambled a contribution based pension scheme with a welfare scheme so that no one can tell where one ends and one begins. Your pension is SOMEWHAT based on your contributions, but not in a manner that is actuarially sound. High earners subsidize the low earners. People working now subsidize people who are retired.

    You CAN have actuarially sound national retirement schemes where your pension is strictly based on how much you have paid in – other countries have them. It’s not that hard. You pay certain a portion of your income into something like a mandatory Christmas Club every month and then at retirement age whatever your balance is, with interest, is used to buy an annuity (An annuity is a life insurance type scheme where in exchange for a certain lump sum, an insurance company agrees to pay you a monthly amount for as long as you live). Because the forced savings in your account are mandatory and non-withdrawable before retirement you can’t blow them on rims or weaves so everyone (who works) is assured of a pension. People who don’t have enough of their own pension to survive can apply for welfare benefits just like other poor people. But we don’t have that, not even close.

    • Replies: @That Would Be Telling
    @Jack D

    I know of two issues when you try to do an "actuarially sound national retirement scheme." One, the pot of money in it is irresistible to some ruling classes, although I only remember Argentina off-hand, which is a generally notorious example. And demographic lumps; one sibling just refused to hear that there might be a stock market downturn when the Baby Boomers started liquidating their stocks and bonds.

    , @Reg Cæsar
    @Jack D


    That was Roosevelt’s brilliance – he scrambled a contribution based pension scheme with a welfare scheme so that no one can tell where one ends and one begins.
     
    Note that it's Social Security, not Personal Security. It was really meant to prevent spectres like the WWI veterans' marches. And, more so even than that, elect and re-elect Democrats until the end of time.

    Howard Ruff nailed the system: pay taxes all your working life, then go on welfare when you retire. It's essentially the same as unemployment insurance and AFDC, with a different means test.

    Replies: @Art Deco, @Clyde

  57. @Art Deco
    @Jack D

    It's not a pension scheme, it's an income transfer scheme. Pension funds and insurance companies make investments, which Social Security does not. It is not a Ponzi scheme and calling it that is a stupid and dishonest rhetorical exercise (one favored by libertard trash). Ponzi schemes are dependent on voluntary recruitment and collapse in a matter of months (the wild outlier being Bernie Madoff's scam). It isn't a 'welfare scheme' either because people contribute and then draw benefits over the life cycle. It doesn't require 'political courage' to repair. Congress just cannot be bothered with doing anything that doesn't pay off some rent-seeking constituency. What Henry Paulson said, "Congress does nothing unless there's a crisis" applies here.

    Replies: @Jack D

    It’s not a pension scheme, it’s an income transfer scheme.

    It’s BOTH! It’s a floor wax AND a dessert topping!

    https://www.nbc.com/saturday-night-live/video/shimmer-floor-wax/n8625

    Arguably, your contributions are “invested” by the government in US Treasury bonds, which are the finest, most risk free type of investment that there is. Of course, the reality is that they just take your pension contributions and spend them immediately and give the Social Security “Trust Fund” a piece of paper that says “IOU One Trillion $ – US Treasury”. But if you look at it another way, they have “invested” your money in government bonds.

  58. @Jack D
    @ScarletNumber


    the amount of your payment is a function of how much you contributed.
     
    That was Roosevelt's brilliance - he scrambled a contribution based pension scheme with a welfare scheme so that no one can tell where one ends and one begins. Your pension is SOMEWHAT based on your contributions, but not in a manner that is actuarially sound. High earners subsidize the low earners. People working now subsidize people who are retired.

    You CAN have actuarially sound national retirement schemes where your pension is strictly based on how much you have paid in - other countries have them. It's not that hard. You pay certain a portion of your income into something like a mandatory Christmas Club every month and then at retirement age whatever your balance is, with interest, is used to buy an annuity (An annuity is a life insurance type scheme where in exchange for a certain lump sum, an insurance company agrees to pay you a monthly amount for as long as you live). Because the forced savings in your account are mandatory and non-withdrawable before retirement you can't blow them on rims or weaves so everyone (who works) is assured of a pension. People who don't have enough of their own pension to survive can apply for welfare benefits just like other poor people. But we don't have that, not even close.

    Replies: @That Would Be Telling, @Reg Cæsar

    I know of two issues when you try to do an “actuarially sound national retirement scheme.” One, the pot of money in it is irresistible to some ruling classes, although I only remember Argentina off-hand, which is a generally notorious example. And demographic lumps; one sibling just refused to hear that there might be a stock market downturn when the Baby Boomers started liquidating their stocks and bonds.

  59. The only plan I see is maximize profits. Gosh, Steve, are you blind?

  60. @Art Deco
    @ScarletNumber

    Unless your grandmother is a centenarian, no she hasn't. There are fewer than 100,000 centenarians among the old.

    The median age of people drawing old age benefits is around 72. Over the period running from 1964 to 2011, the FICA levy varied considerably, but the average was around 6.7% on earnings below thresh-hold. The current rate is 7.65%.

    And people aren't living too long. The Congress has refused to prescribe cohort-specific retirement ages (adjustable each year by actuaries) which would ensure that the ratio of retired persons to working persons has a constant value. They've also refused to make substantive and procedural amendments to the disability program to screen out the sketchy claimants.

    Replies: @Jack D, @Buffalo Joe, @ScarletNumber, @prosa123

    [Congress] also refused to make substantive and procedural amendments to the disability program to screen out the sketchy claimants.

    The federal government has chosen not to enforce the existing laws against age discrimination in employment, and in return has expanded the Social Security Disability program. It is their expectation that a 50+ person who cannot get a job will apply for disability rather than pursue legal remedies.

    • Replies: @Art Deco
    @prosa123

    The federal government has chosen not to enforce the existing laws against age discrimination in employment,

    Do you mean the regulatory agencies do not enforce them, or do you mean the culture of HR offices is such that they'll attempt to enforce all manner of quotas on hiring managers but don't care about older workers, so there's massive noncompliance that there isn't elsewhere?


    and in return has expanded the Social Security Disability program.

    Which provisions have relaxed the definition of disability?


    It is their expectation that a 50+ person who cannot get a job will apply for disability rather than pursue legal remedies.

    Who has owned up to that?


    As of November 2019, the employment-to-population ratio for those between the ages of 25 and 55 was 0.8 and it had that value for each subset of that age range. There's a slight fall off among men you can see in comparing the 35-44 and 45-54 age ranges, where it drops from 0.885 to 0.853. The BLS publishes other data from which you can infer that that ratio for those in the 55 to 64 range is about 0.64. Given the number in that age range which were employed in the 3d q of 2019, you figure that about 6.7 million in that age range had (after they reached 55) departed the working population for one reason or another. Well, there were 4.7 million people in that age range collecting SS Disability. OTOH, there were 1.8 million drawing disability among those 45-54. That would leave an additional 2.9 million added to the disability rolls (many of whom actually are disabled). NB, in the latter part of 2018, the BLS publishes data on the unemployment rate of each age range. Unemployment rates for those over 35 were as follows: 35-44 (3.0%), 45-54 (2.7%), 55-64 (2.8%). Now you had in the latter part of 2019 27 million people in the 55-64 age range who were working. You also had 325,000 people in all age groups classified as 'discouraged workers'. But you're telling me that some portion of that 2.9 million (say, 1.45 million) are actually discouraged workers who have called off their job search and applied for disability instead (and did this with the connivance of SSA officials acting under guidance from Congress. Do I have that right?

    Replies: @prosa123

  61. @Jack D
    @Buzz Mohawk

    The sad thing is that Sears should have been Amazon. They (at one time) had all the infrastructure for selling stuff online (minus the online part) - the warehouses, the picking, packing and shipping infrastructure, etc. But they completely discarded all of that and switched to a B&M format.

    Replies: @prosa123, @Buzz Mohawk, @epebble

    The sad thing is that Sears should have been Amazon. They (at one time) had all the infrastructure for selling stuff online (minus the online part) – the warehouses, the picking, packing and shipping infrastructure, etc. But they completely discarded all of that and switched to a B&M format.

    Walmart is doing what may well be the best of both worlds. They have a huge number of physical stores, of course, most of which do very good business, and simultaneously are greatly ramping up their online presence. Their plan is for these two sales channels to be complimentary rather than competitive.
    As for Sears, it seems to be fading quietly away. For a while they would make periodic annoucements about mass store closings but now the closings happen piecemeal with little publicity. The last I heard the combined Sears + Kmart nationwide store count was well under 100, and may be just over 50 by now.

    • Replies: @Jack D
    @prosa123

    Walmart seems to be doing a reasonably good job of leveraging their B&M presence. If anyone is going to be able to go toe to toe with Amazon, it is them.

    For online grocery shopping, instead of building separate warehouses or contracting with a third party service they just send their own employees to do the shopping and then they bring the stuff out to your car. Apparently they can do this and still make a profit (even though they don't charge anything for this service) although somewhat less profit than if you act as your own unpaid shelf picker. Amazon had to buy Whole Foods to get this capability.

    For non-grocery items you pick up many items same day if they are in the store inventory and for no shipping charge if you pick up at the store. Or else they will deliver in a day or two the same as Amazon, either by joining their Prime equivalent or paying individual shipping charges.

    Wal-Mart's ace in the hole is that their prices are often better than Amazon. Amazon "free" shipping is not really free - it is built into the price of their items which sometimes makes them uncompetitive on low ticket items. Last time I did a pickup at Wal-Mart I got a broom for $1.99. There's no way in hell that Amazon can price a broom at $2 and deliver it and make a profit. Now if I had to drive to Wal-Mart just for a $2 broom it might be worth it to pay Amazon $6 delivered. But Wal-Mart sells pretty much everything so you can lump your pickups together and make the trip worthwhile.

    Replies: @That Would Be Telling, @prosa123

  62. @Jack D
    @Buzz Mohawk

    The sad thing is that Sears should have been Amazon. They (at one time) had all the infrastructure for selling stuff online (minus the online part) - the warehouses, the picking, packing and shipping infrastructure, etc. But they completely discarded all of that and switched to a B&M format.

    Replies: @prosa123, @Buzz Mohawk, @epebble

    The sad thing is that Sears should have been Amazon.

    Exactly. They were, minus the internet, as you say.

    This is something I thought about years ago now. (Time flies.) You are exactly right.

    PS: Thank you for replying to my comment. As soon as the editing time expired, I realized I was stuck having posted a giant image of vintage women in underwear — on a thread about vaccines. You have given it a modicum of legitimacy, while I regret posting it in that form. (This is a familiar feeling for me here.)

    • Replies: @JerseyJeffersonian
    @Buzz Mohawk

    Don't apologize, Buzz. These vintage ladies were attractive women, as opposed to too many of today's specimens, who are likely to be both WAHMEN, as well as unsightly, and frankly, downright hostile in their demeanor.

    Maybe those bros at the door were actually self-appointed door wards, husbanding the resources within against the next mass "shopping" event? Who knows nowadays.

    , @candid_observer
    @Buzz Mohawk

    Well, with Amazon the internet may have taken Sears catalogues away from us, but it gave us Pornhub.

    God never closes a door without opening a window.

    Replies: @Buffalo Joe

    , @donut
    @Buzz Mohawk

    Amusing story about the Sears catalogue :

    https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=w0FIpudHjKA

  63. @ScarletNumber
    @Bill Jones

    As well as social security. People living too long is a serious problem but no one wants to say that out loud because of grandma, who has been a leech for the last 40 years.

    Replies: @Art Deco, @Buzz Mohawk, @S. Anonyia

    Good lord. People don’t start drawing Social Security at 40-45. There aren’t many 105 year old Grandma’s out there.

  64. @Jack D
    @candid_observer

    Biden has said that he will take the vaccine publicly, so the dog did bark. Next.

    https://www.usatoday.com/story/news/politics/2020/12/03/biden-says-hed-be-happy-join-former-presidents-taking-covid-vaccine-publicly/3819923001/

    Yesterday Biden pledged to have 100 million doses available in his first 100 days, which is a good beginning ( I don't know whether this means 50 million people vaccinated - I assume it does). 100 days from the Inauguration is the end of April so this might be possible based upon the Moderna and Pfizer production rates.

    He also said that he wants the schools reopened.

    I realize that many people here don't want to give the man the benefit of the doubt and they are not pleased about his emphasis on masks but I really don't see a problem with his approach. Until there are enough people vaccinated to confer herd immunity mask wearing is a good idea. If you really want to get rid of masks then the best thing is to get everyone vaccinated and then we can throw the masks away but for now they are a wise precaution.

    Replies: @candid_observer, @S. Anonyia, @Polynikes

    I don’t care about the masks but he better not essentially shut down interstate travel and movement like the California governor.

  65. @prosa123
    @Jack D

    The sad thing is that Sears should have been Amazon. They (at one time) had all the infrastructure for selling stuff online (minus the online part) – the warehouses, the picking, packing and shipping infrastructure, etc. But they completely discarded all of that and switched to a B&M format.


    Walmart is doing what may well be the best of both worlds. They have a huge number of physical stores, of course, most of which do very good business, and simultaneously are greatly ramping up their online presence. Their plan is for these two sales channels to be complimentary rather than competitive.
    As for Sears, it seems to be fading quietly away. For a while they would make periodic annoucements about mass store closings but now the closings happen piecemeal with little publicity. The last I heard the combined Sears + Kmart nationwide store count was well under 100, and may be just over 50 by now.

    Replies: @Jack D

    Walmart seems to be doing a reasonably good job of leveraging their B&M presence. If anyone is going to be able to go toe to toe with Amazon, it is them.

    For online grocery shopping, instead of building separate warehouses or contracting with a third party service they just send their own employees to do the shopping and then they bring the stuff out to your car. Apparently they can do this and still make a profit (even though they don’t charge anything for this service) although somewhat less profit than if you act as your own unpaid shelf picker. Amazon had to buy Whole Foods to get this capability.

    For non-grocery items you pick up many items same day if they are in the store inventory and for no shipping charge if you pick up at the store. Or else they will deliver in a day or two the same as Amazon, either by joining their Prime equivalent or paying individual shipping charges.

    Wal-Mart’s ace in the hole is that their prices are often better than Amazon. Amazon “free” shipping is not really free – it is built into the price of their items which sometimes makes them uncompetitive on low ticket items. Last time I did a pickup at Wal-Mart I got a broom for $1.99. There’s no way in hell that Amazon can price a broom at $2 and deliver it and make a profit. Now if I had to drive to Wal-Mart just for a $2 broom it might be worth it to pay Amazon $6 delivered. But Wal-Mart sells pretty much everything so you can lump your pickups together and make the trip worthwhile.

    • Replies: @That Would Be Telling
    @Jack D


    Wal-Mart’s ace in the hole is that their prices are often better than Amazon.
     
    Maybe.... For me, an infinitely better supply chain, I just don't have to worry about getting counterfeits like I do with Amazon, even "Sold and Shipped by Amazon" since they commingle their and 3rd party "Fulfilled by Amazon" inventory for greater logistical efficiency. For a very large part of the nation by area, don't know about population, Amazon is not a competitor for fresh food, or anything else ideally tied to a store. For example, before I bugged in due to Corona-chan, Walmart.com returns were near trivial by going to the customer service desk the next time I went grocery shopping.

    Replies: @Jack D, @ScarletNumber

    , @prosa123
    @Jack D

    Amazon fears only one other company, and it's Walmart.

  66. @Steve Sailer
    @Hhsiii

    I was thinking about elderly prisoners. Maybe we should prioritize them. But then I got thinking about who is still in prison at very old age: Sirhan Sirhan, Charles Manson, Winston Moseley (Kitty Genovese's murderer) ... guys of that ilk.

    Replies: @Mike Tre, @Bragadocious, @Anonymous, @My SIMPLE Pseudonymic Handle, @D. K.

    Too bad homeboy Charlie Manson kicked the bucket in 2017, or I’m sure he’d be first in line to get the jab.

  67. @candid_observer
    @That Would Be Telling

    I'm struck by how unremarkable and unaggressive is the Biden pledge of 100M doses in 100 days, given that virtually every projection I've seen would put this below the lower most bound.

    This isn't exactly what I'd call a big commitment, or even any kind of real commitment.

    Replies: @The Alarmist

    Biden says 100 million, and nobody asks what will be done for the other 225 million?

    • Replies: @Travis
    @The Alarmist

    100 million would be enough to give the vaccine to every American over the age of 55. and millions of them already recovered from COVID and thus will not choose to get vaccinated.

    not much demand from people under the age of 50 and a third of them already recovered from COVID so will not be eager for a vaccine. 100 million Americans have already recovered from this coronavirus and millions have tested positive for the antibodies. Would they still choose to get vaccinated ?

  68. @Jack D
    @Buzz Mohawk

    The sad thing is that Sears should have been Amazon. They (at one time) had all the infrastructure for selling stuff online (minus the online part) - the warehouses, the picking, packing and shipping infrastructure, etc. But they completely discarded all of that and switched to a B&M format.

    Replies: @prosa123, @Buzz Mohawk, @epebble

    Sears was a merchant. Amazon is a technology company that sells stuff. It is like comparing General Motors to NASA.

    For example, they are giving Intel a scare for the money! Imagine producing high end data center grade CPUs at a better price/performance than Intel.

    https://www.businesswire.com/news/home/20200611005895/en/AWS-Announces-General-Availability-of-the-Sixth-Generation-of-Amazon-EC2-Instances-Powered-By-AWS-Graviton2-Processors

    Not just high end chips; In AI (Artificial Intelligence), Amazon is selling Echo Dots for like $40 in BestBuy. IBM, has either buried or kept in coma, their Watson.

    Sears vs. Amazon is like Chrysler vs. Tesla.

    • Replies: @That Would Be Telling
    @epebble


    For example, they are giving Intel a scare for the money! Imagine producing high end data center grade CPUs at a better price/performance than Intel.
     
    Intel's a special case, decades of very bad management with a more recent heavy dose of diversity has resulted in their no longer being a state of the art chip making company. When for years that was their biggest advantage, they were always 1-2 generation ahead of all their competitors. Effectively wiped out a large fraction of a generation's worth of chip architects.

    What they call their 10 nm node just doesn't work economically, it's in between TSMC's 7 nm and 7 nm+, and what they call 7 nm is now officially reporting a very long delay, that's roughly equivalent to TSMC's 5 nm node which for the rest of the year is booked making chips for Apple. This is actually looking to be a serious medium term problem for the world, when one of the largest logic chip manufacturers just removes itself from the field, Global Foundries dropped out, and I hear rumors Samsung is having yield problems with their latest node. Although there's no reason to believe Samsung has lost their ability to move to new nodes like Intel appears to have.

    Although without being able to buy Graviton2 motherboards or systems from AWS, I'm not sure exactly how big a threat they present to Intel and AMD, AWS doesn't make financial sense for a whole lot of use cases.

    Also, I suspect Amazon had approximately 1% or less of the technical input in the Graviton2 chip, per what I was able to find now it uses a Neoverse core. From the propaganda on arm.com about the company they look to be doing their own cores instead of using ARM reference ones, or at least tweaking the latter, plus adding various special sauce outside the cores. I'm assuming Amazon looked closely at their workloads, and how the original Graviton fared, asked for a chip with X number of cores, Y cache hierarchy, Z interconnections etc. (or just used a fitting Neoverse design), and then Neoverse sent the design to Samsung or TSMC for fabrication.

    This is sort of like saying Apple's M1 chip poses a threat to anyone who's not locked into the macOS or iOS app development ecosystems. I don't want to run the former, nor develop for the latter, so it's supremely uninteresting, except in that collaborators someday might want to run my code on their macOS machines.

    Oh, and the ARM CPU ecosystem is doomed for just about everyone not named Apple if the worlds' antitrust authorities allow nVidia to buy Arm Holdings from Softbank. Given the culture of nVidia and what they're willing to pay, it only makes sense as a move to take over control of the ecosystem and shut most everyone else out of it. So watch for that, and developments in the much newer RISC-V CPU ecosystem.
  69. @Buzz Mohawk
    @Jack D


    The sad thing is that Sears should have been Amazon.
     
    Exactly. They were, minus the internet, as you say.

    This is something I thought about years ago now. (Time flies.) You are exactly right.

    PS: Thank you for replying to my comment. As soon as the editing time expired, I realized I was stuck having posted a giant image of vintage women in underwear -- on a thread about vaccines. You have given it a modicum of legitimacy, while I regret posting it in that form. (This is a familiar feeling for me here.)

    Replies: @JerseyJeffersonian, @candid_observer, @donut

    Don’t apologize, Buzz. These vintage ladies were attractive women, as opposed to too many of today’s specimens, who are likely to be both WAHMEN, as well as unsightly, and frankly, downright hostile in their demeanor.

    Maybe those bros at the door were actually self-appointed door wards, husbanding the resources within against the next mass “shopping” event? Who knows nowadays.

    • Thanks: Buzz Mohawk
  70. @Jack D
    @prosa123

    Walmart seems to be doing a reasonably good job of leveraging their B&M presence. If anyone is going to be able to go toe to toe with Amazon, it is them.

    For online grocery shopping, instead of building separate warehouses or contracting with a third party service they just send their own employees to do the shopping and then they bring the stuff out to your car. Apparently they can do this and still make a profit (even though they don't charge anything for this service) although somewhat less profit than if you act as your own unpaid shelf picker. Amazon had to buy Whole Foods to get this capability.

    For non-grocery items you pick up many items same day if they are in the store inventory and for no shipping charge if you pick up at the store. Or else they will deliver in a day or two the same as Amazon, either by joining their Prime equivalent or paying individual shipping charges.

    Wal-Mart's ace in the hole is that their prices are often better than Amazon. Amazon "free" shipping is not really free - it is built into the price of their items which sometimes makes them uncompetitive on low ticket items. Last time I did a pickup at Wal-Mart I got a broom for $1.99. There's no way in hell that Amazon can price a broom at $2 and deliver it and make a profit. Now if I had to drive to Wal-Mart just for a $2 broom it might be worth it to pay Amazon $6 delivered. But Wal-Mart sells pretty much everything so you can lump your pickups together and make the trip worthwhile.

    Replies: @That Would Be Telling, @prosa123

    Wal-Mart’s ace in the hole is that their prices are often better than Amazon.

    Maybe…. For me, an infinitely better supply chain, I just don’t have to worry about getting counterfeits like I do with Amazon, even “Sold and Shipped by Amazon” since they commingle their and 3rd party “Fulfilled by Amazon” inventory for greater logistical efficiency. For a very large part of the nation by area, don’t know about population, Amazon is not a competitor for fresh food, or anything else ideally tied to a store. For example, before I bugged in due to Corona-chan, Walmart.com returns were near trivial by going to the customer service desk the next time I went grocery shopping.

    • Replies: @Jack D
    @That Would Be Telling


    For example, before I bugged in due to Corona-chan, Walmart.com returns were near trivial by going to the customer service desk
     
    My experience was 180 degrees opposite. I recall the Wal-mart return line as being much like the DMV except that the ladies behind the desk were not as slim or charming. I'd much rather have UPS come and pick up the stuff.
    , @ScarletNumber
    @That Would Be Telling


    Walmart.com returns were near trivial by going to the customer service desk the next time I went grocery shopping
     
    Perhaps your Walmart is different, but I wouldn't use my local Walmart's customer service desk on a bet.
  71. @Bill Jones
    This should knock a few years off life expectancy, looks like another attempt to Medicare solvent for the next generation.

    Replies: @ScarletNumber, @Truth

    In addition, it kills those of us with old school values, and leaves the country in the hands of Chavs.

  72. @Buzz Mohawk
    @Jack D


    The sad thing is that Sears should have been Amazon.
     
    Exactly. They were, minus the internet, as you say.

    This is something I thought about years ago now. (Time flies.) You are exactly right.

    PS: Thank you for replying to my comment. As soon as the editing time expired, I realized I was stuck having posted a giant image of vintage women in underwear -- on a thread about vaccines. You have given it a modicum of legitimacy, while I regret posting it in that form. (This is a familiar feeling for me here.)

    Replies: @JerseyJeffersonian, @candid_observer, @donut

    Well, with Amazon the internet may have taken Sears catalogues away from us, but it gave us Pornhub.

    God never closes a door without opening a window.

    • LOL: Buzz Mohawk
    • Replies: @Buffalo Joe
    @candid_observer

    candid, can't wipe your ass with the internet and yes, the Sears catalogue was used as TP in the out house on the farm we visited in my youth.

  73. @epebble
    @Jack D

    Sears was a merchant. Amazon is a technology company that sells stuff. It is like comparing General Motors to NASA.

    For example, they are giving Intel a scare for the money! Imagine producing high end data center grade CPUs at a better price/performance than Intel.

    https://www.businesswire.com/news/home/20200611005895/en/AWS-Announces-General-Availability-of-the-Sixth-Generation-of-Amazon-EC2-Instances-Powered-By-AWS-Graviton2-Processors

    Not just high end chips; In AI (Artificial Intelligence), Amazon is selling Echo Dots for like $40 in BestBuy. IBM, has either buried or kept in coma, their Watson.

    Sears vs. Amazon is like Chrysler vs. Tesla.

    Replies: @That Would Be Telling

    For example, they are giving Intel a scare for the money! Imagine producing high end data center grade CPUs at a better price/performance than Intel.

    Intel’s a special case, decades of very bad management with a more recent heavy dose of diversity has resulted in their no longer being a state of the art chip making company. When for years that was their biggest advantage, they were always 1-2 generation ahead of all their competitors. Effectively wiped out a large fraction of a generation’s worth of chip architects.

    What they call their 10 nm node just doesn’t work economically, it’s in between TSMC’s 7 nm and 7 nm+, and what they call 7 nm is now officially reporting a very long delay, that’s roughly equivalent to TSMC’s 5 nm node which for the rest of the year is booked making chips for Apple. This is actually looking to be a serious medium term problem for the world, when one of the largest logic chip manufacturers just removes itself from the field, Global Foundries dropped out, and I hear rumors Samsung is having yield problems with their latest node. Although there’s no reason to believe Samsung has lost their ability to move to new nodes like Intel appears to have.

    Although without being able to buy Graviton2 motherboards or systems from AWS, I’m not sure exactly how big a threat they present to Intel and AMD, AWS doesn’t make financial sense for a whole lot of use cases.

    Also, I suspect Amazon had approximately 1% or less of the technical input in the Graviton2 chip, per what I was able to find now it uses a Neoverse core. From the propaganda on arm.com about the company they look to be doing their own cores instead of using ARM reference ones, or at least tweaking the latter, plus adding various special sauce outside the cores. I’m assuming Amazon looked closely at their workloads, and how the original Graviton fared, asked for a chip with X number of cores, Y cache hierarchy, Z interconnections etc. (or just used a fitting Neoverse design), and then Neoverse sent the design to Samsung or TSMC for fabrication.

    This is sort of like saying Apple’s M1 chip poses a threat to anyone who’s not locked into the macOS or iOS app development ecosystems. I don’t want to run the former, nor develop for the latter, so it’s supremely uninteresting, except in that collaborators someday might want to run my code on their macOS machines.

    Oh, and the ARM CPU ecosystem is doomed for just about everyone not named Apple if the worlds’ antitrust authorities allow nVidia to buy Arm Holdings from Softbank. Given the culture of nVidia and what they’re willing to pay, it only makes sense as a move to take over control of the ecosystem and shut most everyone else out of it. So watch for that, and developments in the much newer RISC-V CPU ecosystem.

  74. @Steve Sailer
    @Hhsiii

    I was thinking about elderly prisoners. Maybe we should prioritize them. But then I got thinking about who is still in prison at very old age: Sirhan Sirhan, Charles Manson, Winston Moseley (Kitty Genovese's murderer) ... guys of that ilk.

    Replies: @Mike Tre, @Bragadocious, @Anonymous, @My SIMPLE Pseudonymic Handle, @D. K.

    Sirhan is the only one of those three who is still alive– and he is innocent (of the murder for which he was convicted)!

    • Replies: @Art Deco
    @D. K.

    He's not innocent.

    Replies: @D. K.

  75. @prosa123
    @Art Deco

    [Congress] also refused to make substantive and procedural amendments to the disability program to screen out the sketchy claimants.

    The federal government has chosen not to enforce the existing laws against age discrimination in employment, and in return has expanded the Social Security Disability program. It is their expectation that a 50+ person who cannot get a job will apply for disability rather than pursue legal remedies.

    Replies: @Art Deco

    The federal government has chosen not to enforce the existing laws against age discrimination in employment,

    Do you mean the regulatory agencies do not enforce them, or do you mean the culture of HR offices is such that they’ll attempt to enforce all manner of quotas on hiring managers but don’t care about older workers, so there’s massive noncompliance that there isn’t elsewhere?

    and in return has expanded the Social Security Disability program.

    Which provisions have relaxed the definition of disability?

    It is their expectation that a 50+ person who cannot get a job will apply for disability rather than pursue legal remedies.

    Who has owned up to that?

    As of November 2019, the employment-to-population ratio for those between the ages of 25 and 55 was 0.8 and it had that value for each subset of that age range. There’s a slight fall off among men you can see in comparing the 35-44 and 45-54 age ranges, where it drops from 0.885 to 0.853. The BLS publishes other data from which you can infer that that ratio for those in the 55 to 64 range is about 0.64. Given the number in that age range which were employed in the 3d q of 2019, you figure that about 6.7 million in that age range had (after they reached 55) departed the working population for one reason or another. Well, there were 4.7 million people in that age range collecting SS Disability. OTOH, there were 1.8 million drawing disability among those 45-54. That would leave an additional 2.9 million added to the disability rolls (many of whom actually are disabled). NB, in the latter part of 2018, the BLS publishes data on the unemployment rate of each age range. Unemployment rates for those over 35 were as follows: 35-44 (3.0%), 45-54 (2.7%), 55-64 (2.8%). Now you had in the latter part of 2019 27 million people in the 55-64 age range who were working. You also had 325,000 people in all age groups classified as ‘discouraged workers’. But you’re telling me that some portion of that 2.9 million (say, 1.45 million) are actually discouraged workers who have called off their job search and applied for disability instead (and did this with the connivance of SSA officials acting under guidance from Congress. Do I have that right?

    • Replies: @prosa123
    @Art Deco

    People collecting Social Security Disability may be subject to retraining requirements. For example, a person disabled from a physically demanding job may be required to get trained for desk jobs. A few years ago the Social Security Administration waived or at least lessened those requirements for people who are (IIRC) 55+.

    Another sign that something smells fishy with disability claims is that around 40% of claims cite "psychiatric issues" or "musculoskeletal disorders" as the primary reason for disability. These are things that in most cases are impossible for medical examiners to prove or disprove.

    Replies: @Art Deco, @Buffalo Joe

  76. @The Alarmist
    @Jack D

    So, you believe everything you read? Do you understand how they arrived at that figure?

    They took a large group (30k) and vaccinated half while giving a placebo to the other half. Then they turned them loose into “the wild” with little to no controls for actual exposure to the virus. Then they looked over a fairly short time at the difference between the observed infections in the two groups, and because the placebo group had something on the order of 162 observed infections versus 8 for the vaxx group, they used the difference to arrive at 95% efficacy figure.

    Serious adverse reactions in the vaxx group were found in 0.61% of subjects, which suggests 91 or 92 cases of serious adverse reactions, and there are two known but “coincident” deaths among the vaxx group, so it is hard to make a definitive statement that the vaxx kills or incapacitates at an acceptable level, but the incidence seems to be non-trivial. Scale that up by 20k to approximate the 300m US population, and you get 1.8m serious adverse reactions and 20k to 40k deaths from the vaccine, plus other unintended consequences, like vaccinated people unwittingly becoming asymptomatic spreaders of the virus the vaccine was intended to stop in its tracks because, it turns out, it only attenuates symptoms.

    Sounds like a success to me. I think I’ll wait a while to see how this pans out before rolling up my sleeve.

    Replies: @That Would Be Telling

    Serious adverse reactions in the vaxx group were found in 0.61% of subjects, which suggests 91 or 92 cases of serious adverse reactions, and there are two known but “coincident” deaths among the vaxx group, so it is hard to make a definitive statement that the vaxx kills or incapacitates

    Bzzzt! “Incapacitates” for how long? I’ll read the FDA staff briefing document if the FDA gives it an Emergency Use Authorization (EUA), but everything I’ve heard up to now is that like with most or all vaccines, those “serious” adverse reactions are short lived. You are, after all, poking the immune system with a stick, by definition you want a reaction.

    at an acceptable level, but the incidence seems to be non-trivial. Scale that up by 20k to approximate the 300m US population

    Strangely enough, the FDA is not run by complete idiots. Not only is this only one of a number of vaccines in the pipeline, not only is Pfizer only going to be able to provide us 100 million doses, 50 million people, before more in mid-2021, an EUA gets you only so far, it’s not licensure for the whole population. The EUA even gives an advantage in starting Phase IV early.

    As for the deaths, are you an actuary? Know any statistics? Because those are very small numbers and in favor of the vaccine, see page 33, 2/21621 deaths in the vaccine arm, 4/21631 in the placebo arm.

    [more bogus math], plus other unintended consequences, like vaccinated people unwittingly becoming asymptomatic spreaders of the virus the vaccine was intended to stop in its tracks because, it turns out, it only attenuates symptoms.

    Another lie, there’s no evidence either way, it’s not something you can do in a Phase III trial and explicitly is not an endpoint in either of the mRNA trial protocols, but based on everything we know about this sort of thing, we believe the vaccine will stop transmission for the vast majority who get it.

  77. @Johnny Smoggins
    Vaccine trials typically take ten years. A rushed trial takes three years. In this case we've gone from not knowing about the existence of a virus to having a vaccine for it rolled out in under a year.

    Sounds pretty sketchy to me.

    Replies: @That Would Be Telling

    Vaccine trials typically take ten years. A rushed trial takes three years. In this case we’ve gone from not knowing about the existence of a virus to having a vaccine for it rolled out in under a year.

    Sounds pretty sketchy to me.

    I would say your ignorance is your problem, but since you won’t contribute to herd immunity, it’s lots of people’s problems. Vaccine development typically takes ten years, with most of that eaten up by the research lab developing it waiting for their next grant. Trials are at the very end of the process, and these are so far only good enough for FDA Emergency Use Authorizations (EUA), are not licensure for the whole population.

    We’ve know about SARS type coronaviruses since 2003, and MERS in 2012 confirmed we were going to be plagued, so to speak, with lethal coronaviruses going forward. So work on vaccines for this class of coronaviruses has been going on for a very long time, long enough that Moderna was able to develop its vaccine candidate in two days after SARS-CoV-2 genomes started to be published from the PRC, with a tweak developed for just its sorts of spike proteins to avoid antibody-dependent enhancement (ADE). The only known short cut taken was both mRNA vaccine efforts starting animal testing at the same time as their human Phase I trials, a risky move for the humans, 45 for Moderna, that paid off fantastically.

    That said, mRNA vaccines are new, advanced technology, that’s why development and testing could start so much sooner than virus vector vaccines, but in theory they’ll be the most safe active COVID-19 vaccines ever. And the evidence so far backs up the theory.

  78. Do fat people with diabetes get their jab in step 4, and plain old fat people in step 6?

  79. @anonymous
    Off-topic

    https://twitter.com/another_xi_123/status/1336467855064231936

    Does anyone in US strategic circles understand China as well as Professor Di Dongsheng of Renmin University understands America?

    Replies: @Joe Stalin

    • Replies: @anonymous
    @Joe Stalin

    I've seen that channel and it is an example of what I mean. The channel doesn't try to seek to understand how China works with a critical eye, it just constantly shits on China from every angle. It's a strategic strength to know your rival (and yourself) well. China has gained it but the US hasn't kept up.

  80. @Dr. DoomNGloom
    @Steve

    Note that there is some overlap among the 9 categories, e.g., there are frontline healthcare workers who are over 50 and have underlying health conditions
     
    Intersectionality!

    Actually, the side effects seem fairly serious and FDA hasn't yet gotten around to the safety part have they? Until I see evidence, I'd have some worries that everyone can tolerate the vaccine.

    It also strikes me that lockdowns are losing support. There may be strategic advantage to vaccines among the younger who contract and spread.

    Replies: @That Would Be Telling

    Actually, the side effects seem fairly serious and FDA hasn’t yet gotten around to the safety part have they? Until I see evidence, I’d have some worries that everyone can tolerate the vaccine.

    Ummm, maybe, but short term, absolutely no, and absolutely yes. The gate on the mRNA vaccine companies being able to submit applications for FDA Emergency Use Authorizations was two month of safety data from one half of the people who got the vaccine, based in the observation that almost all bad, long term side effects show up in a month and a half. They had their required efficacy data some time before the required safety data.

    I keep saying people don’t know the FDA, and the very idea they’d completely ignore safety before making any sort of approval is beyond ludicrous.

    And most certainly not everyone will be able to tolerate the vaccine, you know for an absolute fact that if you give one to enough people, our immune systems being wild and crazy but mostly in a good way, you will absolutely maim and kill some people.

    For evidence, perhaps read and skim the FDA staff briefing document that will I assume be the basis of tomorrow’s FDA meeting?

  81. With the ultra cold storage requirement, I’m curious about plans on what to do with the vaccine for the essential workers and nursing home residents who don’t want to take it. My very informal polling of medical worker friends suggests about 30% of them, want nothing to do with it.

    • Agree: Je Suis Omar Mateen
    • Replies: @James B. Shearer
    @George Taylor

    "With the ultra cold storage requirement, I’m curious about plans on what to do with the vaccine for the essential workers and nursing home residents who don’t want to take it. .."

    It is my understanding that they are having people sign up in advance so there won't be a lot of leftover doses.

    Replies: @That Would Be Telling

  82. @clyde
    from UK Daily Mail

    Warning over UK vaccine rollout as two NHS staff given jab suffer 'anaphylactic reaction': Regulators urge people with history of 'significant' allergies NOT to have Pfizer injection - just 24 hours after Britain's mass inoculation kicked off
    Both the people are recovering following the first day of the mass vaccination programme, it is understood
    The NHS in England said that all the trusts involved with the vaccination programme have been informed
    MHRA has given advice anyone who has a history of 'significant' allergic reactions should not get the vaccine
    Yesterday the NHS embarked on its colossal plan to vaccinate the entire UK population against coronavirus

    Replies: @That Would Be Telling

    from UK Daily Mail

    Warning over UK vaccine rollout as two NHS staff given jab suffer ‘anaphylactic reaction’: Regulators urge people with history of ‘significant’ allergies NOT to have Pfizer injection[!!!!!!!!!]

    And here I tap out, for the foreseeable future, open discussion forums like iSteve are going to be overwhelmed by every incident, coincident or very possibly not here, of a bad outcome after a “jab”. And my domain knowledge pertaining to theory isn’t really needed, people with a little statistical knowledge and skill, and confidence in it, will be able to judge the risk/reward benefit from actual experience with the vaccines if they can avoid getting overwhelmed byovert propaganda.

    And you wonder why the FDA is taking its own sweet time in making the decisions for Emergency Use Authorization (EUA) approvals?

  83. @Jack D
    @prosa123

    Walmart seems to be doing a reasonably good job of leveraging their B&M presence. If anyone is going to be able to go toe to toe with Amazon, it is them.

    For online grocery shopping, instead of building separate warehouses or contracting with a third party service they just send their own employees to do the shopping and then they bring the stuff out to your car. Apparently they can do this and still make a profit (even though they don't charge anything for this service) although somewhat less profit than if you act as your own unpaid shelf picker. Amazon had to buy Whole Foods to get this capability.

    For non-grocery items you pick up many items same day if they are in the store inventory and for no shipping charge if you pick up at the store. Or else they will deliver in a day or two the same as Amazon, either by joining their Prime equivalent or paying individual shipping charges.

    Wal-Mart's ace in the hole is that their prices are often better than Amazon. Amazon "free" shipping is not really free - it is built into the price of their items which sometimes makes them uncompetitive on low ticket items. Last time I did a pickup at Wal-Mart I got a broom for $1.99. There's no way in hell that Amazon can price a broom at $2 and deliver it and make a profit. Now if I had to drive to Wal-Mart just for a $2 broom it might be worth it to pay Amazon $6 delivered. But Wal-Mart sells pretty much everything so you can lump your pickups together and make the trip worthwhile.

    Replies: @That Would Be Telling, @prosa123

    Amazon fears only one other company, and it’s Walmart.

  84. @Art Deco
    @prosa123

    The federal government has chosen not to enforce the existing laws against age discrimination in employment,

    Do you mean the regulatory agencies do not enforce them, or do you mean the culture of HR offices is such that they'll attempt to enforce all manner of quotas on hiring managers but don't care about older workers, so there's massive noncompliance that there isn't elsewhere?


    and in return has expanded the Social Security Disability program.

    Which provisions have relaxed the definition of disability?


    It is their expectation that a 50+ person who cannot get a job will apply for disability rather than pursue legal remedies.

    Who has owned up to that?


    As of November 2019, the employment-to-population ratio for those between the ages of 25 and 55 was 0.8 and it had that value for each subset of that age range. There's a slight fall off among men you can see in comparing the 35-44 and 45-54 age ranges, where it drops from 0.885 to 0.853. The BLS publishes other data from which you can infer that that ratio for those in the 55 to 64 range is about 0.64. Given the number in that age range which were employed in the 3d q of 2019, you figure that about 6.7 million in that age range had (after they reached 55) departed the working population for one reason or another. Well, there were 4.7 million people in that age range collecting SS Disability. OTOH, there were 1.8 million drawing disability among those 45-54. That would leave an additional 2.9 million added to the disability rolls (many of whom actually are disabled). NB, in the latter part of 2018, the BLS publishes data on the unemployment rate of each age range. Unemployment rates for those over 35 were as follows: 35-44 (3.0%), 45-54 (2.7%), 55-64 (2.8%). Now you had in the latter part of 2019 27 million people in the 55-64 age range who were working. You also had 325,000 people in all age groups classified as 'discouraged workers'. But you're telling me that some portion of that 2.9 million (say, 1.45 million) are actually discouraged workers who have called off their job search and applied for disability instead (and did this with the connivance of SSA officials acting under guidance from Congress. Do I have that right?

    Replies: @prosa123

    People collecting Social Security Disability may be subject to retraining requirements. For example, a person disabled from a physically demanding job may be required to get trained for desk jobs. A few years ago the Social Security Administration waived or at least lessened those requirements for people who are (IIRC) 55+.

    Another sign that something smells fishy with disability claims is that around 40% of claims cite “psychiatric issues” or “musculoskeletal disorders” as the primary reason for disability. These are things that in most cases are impossible for medical examiners to prove or disprove.

    • Replies: @Art Deco
    @prosa123

    I don't doubt there are a lot of sketchy claims and that insiders have redefined 'disability' to mean something no ordinary person would recognize as a disability. A lawyer I correspond with was telling me about some clients of his collecting disability. "The only disability I can detect is that they're drug addicts". What I'm not buying is that the explosion in these claims has much to do with employment discrimination.

    , @Buffalo Joe
    @prosa123

    prosa, those are called "Crazy Checks."

  85. 20,000 were vaccinated and it prevented 154 from getting COVID….so if 2,000,000 get vaccinated it will prevent 15,400 from getting COVID and save 62 lives if the fatality rate remains around .4%

    If 2 million over the age of 60 get the vaccine it will save over 300 lives, since this age group has a fatality rate closer to 2% , assuming the vaccine works as well for the elderly.

    Hopefully the vaccine gives at least a year of protection from being hospitalized with Coronavirus.

  86. anonymous[196] • Disclaimer says:
    @Joe Stalin
    @anonymous

    https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=XLt9RnWtdJg

    Replies: @anonymous

    I’ve seen that channel and it is an example of what I mean. The channel doesn’t try to seek to understand how China works with a critical eye, it just constantly shits on China from every angle. It’s a strategic strength to know your rival (and yourself) well. China has gained it but the US hasn’t kept up.

  87. @That Would Be Telling
    @Jack D


    Wal-Mart’s ace in the hole is that their prices are often better than Amazon.
     
    Maybe.... For me, an infinitely better supply chain, I just don't have to worry about getting counterfeits like I do with Amazon, even "Sold and Shipped by Amazon" since they commingle their and 3rd party "Fulfilled by Amazon" inventory for greater logistical efficiency. For a very large part of the nation by area, don't know about population, Amazon is not a competitor for fresh food, or anything else ideally tied to a store. For example, before I bugged in due to Corona-chan, Walmart.com returns were near trivial by going to the customer service desk the next time I went grocery shopping.

    Replies: @Jack D, @ScarletNumber

    For example, before I bugged in due to Corona-chan, Walmart.com returns were near trivial by going to the customer service desk

    My experience was 180 degrees opposite. I recall the Wal-mart return line as being much like the DMV except that the ladies behind the desk were not as slim or charming. I’d much rather have UPS come and pick up the stuff.

    • Agree: ScarletNumber
  88. @prosa123
    @Art Deco

    People collecting Social Security Disability may be subject to retraining requirements. For example, a person disabled from a physically demanding job may be required to get trained for desk jobs. A few years ago the Social Security Administration waived or at least lessened those requirements for people who are (IIRC) 55+.

    Another sign that something smells fishy with disability claims is that around 40% of claims cite "psychiatric issues" or "musculoskeletal disorders" as the primary reason for disability. These are things that in most cases are impossible for medical examiners to prove or disprove.

    Replies: @Art Deco, @Buffalo Joe

    I don’t doubt there are a lot of sketchy claims and that insiders have redefined ‘disability’ to mean something no ordinary person would recognize as a disability. A lawyer I correspond with was telling me about some clients of his collecting disability. “The only disability I can detect is that they’re drug addicts”. What I’m not buying is that the explosion in these claims has much to do with employment discrimination.

  89. @D. K.
    @Steve Sailer

    Sirhan is the only one of those three who is still alive-- and he is innocent (of the murder for which he was convicted)!

    Replies: @Art Deco

    He’s not innocent.

    • Replies: @D. K.
    @Art Deco

    Sirhan Sirhan did not fire the gun shot that killed Robert Kennedy. That shot was fired from one to three inches behind Kennedy's right ear, as testified to by Dr. Thomas Noguchi, who did the autopsy. Sirhan was standing several feet in front of Kennedy, and was tackled backward, onto a table top, after his second shot, firing his other shots wildly into the pantry. Audio evidence suggests thirteen shots were fired, that night, and there is physical evidence of several more shots than the eight from Sirhan's own handgun. Eyewitnesses saw more than one gun drawn, with the likely killer, inadvertent or otherwise, being a security guard.

    Replies: @Steve Sailer, @Art Deco, @Art Deco

  90. @ScarletNumber
    @Buffalo Joe

    If I knew you in person, I wouldn't say this, but since this is the internet, I have no problem calling your mother a leech. Good for her for wanting to go Kevorkian. We need more like her.

    Replies: @Buffalo Joe, @Lurker

    Scarlet, well played my friend, Stay safe.

  91. @prosa123
    @Art Deco

    People collecting Social Security Disability may be subject to retraining requirements. For example, a person disabled from a physically demanding job may be required to get trained for desk jobs. A few years ago the Social Security Administration waived or at least lessened those requirements for people who are (IIRC) 55+.

    Another sign that something smells fishy with disability claims is that around 40% of claims cite "psychiatric issues" or "musculoskeletal disorders" as the primary reason for disability. These are things that in most cases are impossible for medical examiners to prove or disprove.

    Replies: @Art Deco, @Buffalo Joe

    prosa, those are called “Crazy Checks.”

  92. @candid_observer
    @Buzz Mohawk

    Well, with Amazon the internet may have taken Sears catalogues away from us, but it gave us Pornhub.

    God never closes a door without opening a window.

    Replies: @Buffalo Joe

    candid, can’t wipe your ass with the internet and yes, the Sears catalogue was used as TP in the out house on the farm we visited in my youth.

  93. @Andrew M
    Prioritizing care home residents doesn’t satisfy any of your goals A through E. The idea is to allow care home residents, who have essentially been locked up since March, to finally see their families again. I propose an additional conflicting goal:

    F. Maximize happiness

    Replies: @Steve Sailer, @Buffalo Joe, @AnotherDad

    F. Maximize happiness

    Agree.

    I think that means whatever set of policies gets rid of the lockdown nonsense ASAP. That may indeed mean protecting old folks and when done people will think “ok, no biggie now” but my guess is the hysteria has been too much for that.

    A category i would suggest under “happiness” is make the vaccine available immediately to any young couple who are planning on having a baby in 2021–concerned about doing it with the virus, but promise to do so if they are vaccinated.

    We are just getting to the births conceived under the Xi regime. Do not know how it’s going. But wouldn’t surprise me if the Covid hysterics have killed off more babies than all the Covid deaths or Covid deaths prevented.

    I have pretty close to zero doubt the hysterics’ lockdowns and nonsense have killed off more years of life than they have saved or years of life lost or would have been lost doing nothing.

    This has been a classic sacrificing the future for the past debacle. But we’re now a society so far removed–“nation of immigrants”, open borders, feminism, lean-in, homo-“marriage”, “transgender”–from a healthy love of our own children, our posterity that most people discussing this don’t even think forgone children.

    • Replies: @Thoughts
    @AnotherDad

    Young women intent on having children are advised by the NHS NOT to have the Covid Vaccine until further studies are done

    There is worry that Covid vaccine could go after placenta cells, the vaccine has not been tested on Pregnant women

    I posted earlier that I had dinner with a woman who delivered 5 weeks early after having the H1N1 vaccine. It's possible that the vaccine caused an autoimmune reaction with the placenta/umbilical chord leading to the early birth...not a birth per se...but the expelling of what the body deemed a foreign substance thanks to the vaccine re-wiring the bodies immune response.

    , @Clyde
    @AnotherDad

    You live/retired? by the beach. Just the salt air will kill off Covid virus. The breezes disperse it, sunlight kills it. Lots of that good air gets into people's houses. But having 30 BBQ guests crowding into your backyard. How will any virus transmit in such ideal open air conditions?

    Contrast this with Southern California banning restaurants from hosting outdoors dining so they can survive. This is not science, this is cruel idiocy from government workers elected/non-elected getting guaranteed pay checks for the abuse they dole out to the private sector citizenry.

    In my book the cruelest are usually the most stupid. They go together. And having a very fine university degree, you can still be very stupid because you were nothing but a trained seal in college, balancing a ball on your nose.

  94. @AnotherDad
    @Andrew M


    F. Maximize happiness
     
    Agree.

    I think that means whatever set of policies gets rid of the lockdown nonsense ASAP. That may indeed mean protecting old folks and when done people will think "ok, no biggie now" but my guess is the hysteria has been too much for that.

    A category i would suggest under "happiness" is make the vaccine available immediately to any young couple who are planning on having a baby in 2021--concerned about doing it with the virus, but promise to do so if they are vaccinated.

    We are just getting to the births conceived under the Xi regime. Do not know how it's going. But wouldn't surprise me if the Covid hysterics have killed off more babies than all the Covid deaths or Covid deaths prevented.

    I have pretty close to zero doubt the hysterics' lockdowns and nonsense have killed off more years of life than they have saved or years of life lost or would have been lost doing nothing.

    This has been a classic sacrificing the future for the past debacle. But we're now a society so far removed--"nation of immigrants", open borders, feminism, lean-in, homo-"marriage", "transgender"--from a healthy love of our own children, our posterity that most people discussing this don't even think forgone children.

    Replies: @Thoughts, @Clyde

    Young women intent on having children are advised by the NHS NOT to have the Covid Vaccine until further studies are done

    There is worry that Covid vaccine could go after placenta cells, the vaccine has not been tested on Pregnant women

    I posted earlier that I had dinner with a woman who delivered 5 weeks early after having the H1N1 vaccine. It’s possible that the vaccine caused an autoimmune reaction with the placenta/umbilical chord leading to the early birth…not a birth per se…but the expelling of what the body deemed a foreign substance thanks to the vaccine re-wiring the bodies immune response.

  95. @Jack D
    @Buzz Mohawk

    Get over it. Brick and mortar shopping is OVAH. I haven't been inside a store since March and I don't miss it - I didn't like going to the mall even when it was still possible. Amazon (and many other online retailers) offer free returns. You can order an item, see and handle it and then if you don't like it you tape the box back up and send it back whence it came.

    Amazon is funny about this - you would think that if they sent you a broken dish that they wouldn't want it back, automatically. You can call them and try to argue your way out of sending back the broken pieces of pottery but the default is that they want it back. But sometimes they would "forget" to give me credit. Nowadays I don't bother arguing anymore, I just send back the pieces - that's the path of least resistance.

    Replies: @Buzz Mohawk, @Polynikes, @PiltdownMan

    You haven’t been to a store since march? Jesus… this site is populated with more ninnies than Twitter.

    • Replies: @Steve Sailer
    @Polynikes

    Like all the commenters who are terrified of vaccines?

    Replies: @anon

    , @ScarletNumber
    @Polynikes

    Don't blame us. With the exception of grocery stores and drug stores, other stores may still not be open since they are non-essential. I don't think my local Barnes & Noble has reopened, and my local library placed cumbersome restrictions on its use.

  96. @Jack D
    @candid_observer

    Biden has said that he will take the vaccine publicly, so the dog did bark. Next.

    https://www.usatoday.com/story/news/politics/2020/12/03/biden-says-hed-be-happy-join-former-presidents-taking-covid-vaccine-publicly/3819923001/

    Yesterday Biden pledged to have 100 million doses available in his first 100 days, which is a good beginning ( I don't know whether this means 50 million people vaccinated - I assume it does). 100 days from the Inauguration is the end of April so this might be possible based upon the Moderna and Pfizer production rates.

    He also said that he wants the schools reopened.

    I realize that many people here don't want to give the man the benefit of the doubt and they are not pleased about his emphasis on masks but I really don't see a problem with his approach. Until there are enough people vaccinated to confer herd immunity mask wearing is a good idea. If you really want to get rid of masks then the best thing is to get everyone vaccinated and then we can throw the masks away but for now they are a wise precaution.

    Replies: @candid_observer, @S. Anonyia, @Polynikes

    Masks are not a wide precaution. And Biden was for school closures all summer and even released a campaign ad slamming Trump for calling for schools to be open.

  97. @Jack D
    @ScarletNumber


    the amount of your payment is a function of how much you contributed.
     
    That was Roosevelt's brilliance - he scrambled a contribution based pension scheme with a welfare scheme so that no one can tell where one ends and one begins. Your pension is SOMEWHAT based on your contributions, but not in a manner that is actuarially sound. High earners subsidize the low earners. People working now subsidize people who are retired.

    You CAN have actuarially sound national retirement schemes where your pension is strictly based on how much you have paid in - other countries have them. It's not that hard. You pay certain a portion of your income into something like a mandatory Christmas Club every month and then at retirement age whatever your balance is, with interest, is used to buy an annuity (An annuity is a life insurance type scheme where in exchange for a certain lump sum, an insurance company agrees to pay you a monthly amount for as long as you live). Because the forced savings in your account are mandatory and non-withdrawable before retirement you can't blow them on rims or weaves so everyone (who works) is assured of a pension. People who don't have enough of their own pension to survive can apply for welfare benefits just like other poor people. But we don't have that, not even close.

    Replies: @That Would Be Telling, @Reg Cæsar

    That was Roosevelt’s brilliance – he scrambled a contribution based pension scheme with a welfare scheme so that no one can tell where one ends and one begins.

    Note that it’s Social Security, not Personal Security. It was really meant to prevent spectres like the WWI veterans’ marches. And, more so even than that, elect and re-elect Democrats until the end of time.

    Howard Ruff nailed the system: pay taxes all your working life, then go on welfare when you retire. It’s essentially the same as unemployment insurance and AFDC, with a different means test.

    • Replies: @Art Deco
    @Reg Cæsar

    It’s essentially the same as unemployment insurance and AFDC, with a different means test.

    You're insane. AFDC (which does not exist anymore) was not financed out of dedicated levies. It had no time limits attached to it, and it had a completely different sort of clientele than Social Security or unemployment compensation. AFDC was means tested. The others have no means test; the benefit stream is, however, earnings related. Both Social Security and unemployment compensation have buy-in requirements, the latter is strictly term-limited, and receiving both require that certain events beyond your control take place, events that are either readily manifest or require a hearing examiner to certify them.

    Replies: @Reg Cæsar

    , @Clyde
    @Reg Cæsar

    Howard Ruff? lols I read a few of his books back then. Mormon lived to 85, Check out his wiki. Back then Mormons were genuine conservatives, much than Mitt Romney and Mike Lee who is always agitating for more H1B workers from India
    I would love to see who Lee's major donors are. Must be all Indian body (supplying) firms.

  98. @Polynikes
    @Jack D

    You haven’t been to a store since march? Jesus... this site is populated with more ninnies than Twitter.

    Replies: @Steve Sailer, @ScarletNumber

    Like all the commenters who are terrified of vaccines?

    • Replies: @anon
    @Steve Sailer


    Like all the commenters who are terrified of vaccines?
     
    It's ok Steve, you can stay in the closet with John Travolta.
    Best you stay there till until it's safe.
  99. The UK Vaccine Prioritization Plan

    10. Anyone who has inherited a really cool name:

    In England, William Shakespeare receives a COVID-19 vaccine

    Next in line, any Francis Bacons, Christopher Marlowes, Philip Sidneys, Samuel Richardsons, Fulke Grevilles, etc., out there.

    Are there any Fulke Grevilles extant?

  100. @The Alarmist
    @candid_observer

    Biden says 100 million, and nobody asks what will be done for the other 225 million?

    Replies: @Travis

    100 million would be enough to give the vaccine to every American over the age of 55. and millions of them already recovered from COVID and thus will not choose to get vaccinated.

    not much demand from people under the age of 50 and a third of them already recovered from COVID so will not be eager for a vaccine. 100 million Americans have already recovered from this coronavirus and millions have tested positive for the antibodies. Would they still choose to get vaccinated ?

  101. @Bragadocious
    @Steve Sailer

    Also Marybeth Tinning, 78. It's odd how she's never mentioned as a notorious mass murderer.

    Replies: @Reg Cæsar

    Also Marybeth Tinning, 78. It’s odd how she’s never mentioned as a notorious mass murderer.

    She’s out now. Outlived her sentence.

    She was Roe before Roe. Literally:

    https://en.m.wikipedia.org/wiki/Marybeth_Tinning#Early_life

  102. @Art Deco
    @D. K.

    He's not innocent.

    Replies: @D. K.

    Sirhan Sirhan did not fire the gun shot that killed Robert Kennedy. That shot was fired from one to three inches behind Kennedy’s right ear, as testified to by Dr. Thomas Noguchi, who did the autopsy. Sirhan was standing several feet in front of Kennedy, and was tackled backward, onto a table top, after his second shot, firing his other shots wildly into the pantry. Audio evidence suggests thirteen shots were fired, that night, and there is physical evidence of several more shots than the eight from Sirhan’s own handgun. Eyewitnesses saw more than one gun drawn, with the likely killer, inadvertent or otherwise, being a security guard.

    • Replies: @Steve Sailer
    @D. K.

    There is a similar theory that Huey Long was accidentally killed by a security guard trying to shoot the would-be assassin.

    One of the less popular JFK theories is the same.

    The bullet that hit Reagan bounced off his limo door, which, IIRC, had been opened to get him back inside.

    Bad stuff happens when assassins open fire.

    Replies: @D. K.

    , @Art Deco
    @D. K.

    Sirhan Sirhan did not fire the gun shot that killed Robert Kennedy.

    I'll call this the Mumia defense. Please yourself.

    Replies: @D. K.

    , @Art Deco
    @D. K.

    Audio evidence suggests thirteen shots were fired

    A disputed claim.


    You have a man standing smack in front of Kennedy firing bullets, but the actual killer is someone no one ever sees. Oh, and the forensic examiners got it wrong. They do every time.


    As for RFK Jr., the last time I can recall some public utterance of his, he was promoting the notion in print that Kenneth Littleton killed Martha Moxley. At least his maternal-side cousins have had the decency not to slime random 3d parties in a futile effort to get their brothers off the hook. For some reason, I don't put much weight on what comes out of Bobby Jr.'s drug addled pen.

    Replies: @D. K.

  103. @Jack D
    @Buzz Mohawk

    Get over it. Brick and mortar shopping is OVAH. I haven't been inside a store since March and I don't miss it - I didn't like going to the mall even when it was still possible. Amazon (and many other online retailers) offer free returns. You can order an item, see and handle it and then if you don't like it you tape the box back up and send it back whence it came.

    Amazon is funny about this - you would think that if they sent you a broken dish that they wouldn't want it back, automatically. You can call them and try to argue your way out of sending back the broken pieces of pottery but the default is that they want it back. But sometimes they would "forget" to give me credit. Nowadays I don't bother arguing anymore, I just send back the pieces - that's the path of least resistance.

    Replies: @Buzz Mohawk, @Polynikes, @PiltdownMan

    Get over it. Brick and mortar shopping is OVAH.

    PiltdownWoman and PiltdownGirls say it’s a real drag to buy women’s clothing online. For them, it’s important to not just see the item of clothing, but to hold it up to size up the look, and feel the fabric. I’ve been ordering the same half-a-dozen or so items from an East Coast clothing catalog for the last thirty five years or so, so, as long as they don’t go out of business, or succumb to some weird Asian/Gen Z men’s ideas of clothing styles, I’m okay.

  104. @Buzz Mohawk
    @Jack D


    The sad thing is that Sears should have been Amazon.
     
    Exactly. They were, minus the internet, as you say.

    This is something I thought about years ago now. (Time flies.) You are exactly right.

    PS: Thank you for replying to my comment. As soon as the editing time expired, I realized I was stuck having posted a giant image of vintage women in underwear -- on a thread about vaccines. You have given it a modicum of legitimacy, while I regret posting it in that form. (This is a familiar feeling for me here.)

    Replies: @JerseyJeffersonian, @candid_observer, @donut

    Amusing story about the Sears catalogue :

  105. @D. K.
    @Art Deco

    Sirhan Sirhan did not fire the gun shot that killed Robert Kennedy. That shot was fired from one to three inches behind Kennedy's right ear, as testified to by Dr. Thomas Noguchi, who did the autopsy. Sirhan was standing several feet in front of Kennedy, and was tackled backward, onto a table top, after his second shot, firing his other shots wildly into the pantry. Audio evidence suggests thirteen shots were fired, that night, and there is physical evidence of several more shots than the eight from Sirhan's own handgun. Eyewitnesses saw more than one gun drawn, with the likely killer, inadvertent or otherwise, being a security guard.

    Replies: @Steve Sailer, @Art Deco, @Art Deco

    There is a similar theory that Huey Long was accidentally killed by a security guard trying to shoot the would-be assassin.

    One of the less popular JFK theories is the same.

    The bullet that hit Reagan bounced off his limo door, which, IIRC, had been opened to get him back inside.

    Bad stuff happens when assassins open fire.

    • Replies: @D. K.
    @Steve Sailer

    RFK, Jr., suspects the late security guard:

    https://heavy.com/news/2019/09/thane-eugene-cesar-rfk/

    For me, there is no compelling reason to assume premeditation, let alone a conspiracy, although either is theoretically possible. When Sirhan, seemingly in a trance, opened fire, the moonlighting security guard was holding RFK's right arm with the guard's left hand. The senator and security guard both fell backwards, to the floor of the pantry, with RFK supposedly pulling the guard's clip-on tie off of his uniform. I can certainly see the possibility of Cesar's hitting RFK, during the fall, while attempting to return fire at Sirhan. The mental state of Sirhan is, to me, the most interesting issue in the case. He admitted to the killing, despite his supposedly having no recollection of the shooting, because his legal team convinced him that his best chance to avoid the death penalty was to confess and to have them plead diminished capacity.

  106. @George Taylor
    With the ultra cold storage requirement, I'm curious about plans on what to do with the vaccine for the essential workers and nursing home residents who don't want to take it. My very informal polling of medical worker friends suggests about 30% of them, want nothing to do with it.

    Replies: @James B. Shearer

    “With the ultra cold storage requirement, I’m curious about plans on what to do with the vaccine for the essential workers and nursing home residents who don’t want to take it. ..”

    It is my understanding that they are having people sign up in advance so there won’t be a lot of leftover doses.

    • Replies: @That Would Be Telling
    @James B. Shearer

    WRT to the Pfizer/BioNTech ultra cold storage requirements:


    It is my understanding that they are having people sign up in advance so there won’t be a lot of leftover doses.
     
    This vaccine is good for 5 days after being thawed out, so there's all sorts of ways to deal with vials you haven't used up. For example, if it starts to become a problem, maintain a list of people who sign up for "as available" dosing, although that does require a firm schedule of a second dose for them in ~21 days.

    Another thing that'll help: Pfizer is only going to be able to meet half its earliest promised schedule, it's got supply chain issues (perhaps they should have taken Operation Warp Speed (OWS) money upfront, instead of just getting a contingent purchase agreement? Note that plenty of OWS speed money is going to the supply chain, see HHS here for the view at 20,000 feet or so, and there should be coordination in the whole program.)
  107. @The Alarmist
    Killing the old folks first sounds like a great plan to stabilise the finances of the NHS in the UK, and besides, after that die-off, nobody will want the vaccine and will grudgingly accept their lifetime lockdown.

    BTW, what rational system of healthcare rationing prioritises preserving the actuarially shortest remaining lives with the least propensity to contribute meaningfully to society?

    This is political kabuki that tells you the real danger COVID-19 poses to the broader society while they continue to scare the masses into blind submission.

    Replies: @eD, @Cortes, @Telemachos

    My thoughts exactly. A 70-year-old or even a 65-year-old with diabetes and high blood pressure might still have another 20 or 30 decent years. Someone who’s 99 and has advanced dementia and can’t walk clearly doesn’t. So we prioritize….the former, no? But that’s not what it sounds like they’re thinking.

  108. @Steve Sailer
    @D. K.

    There is a similar theory that Huey Long was accidentally killed by a security guard trying to shoot the would-be assassin.

    One of the less popular JFK theories is the same.

    The bullet that hit Reagan bounced off his limo door, which, IIRC, had been opened to get him back inside.

    Bad stuff happens when assassins open fire.

    Replies: @D. K.

    RFK, Jr., suspects the late security guard:

    https://heavy.com/news/2019/09/thane-eugene-cesar-rfk/

    For me, there is no compelling reason to assume premeditation, let alone a conspiracy, although either is theoretically possible. When Sirhan, seemingly in a trance, opened fire, the moonlighting security guard was holding RFK’s right arm with the guard’s left hand. The senator and security guard both fell backwards, to the floor of the pantry, with RFK supposedly pulling the guard’s clip-on tie off of his uniform. I can certainly see the possibility of Cesar’s hitting RFK, during the fall, while attempting to return fire at Sirhan. The mental state of Sirhan is, to me, the most interesting issue in the case. He admitted to the killing, despite his supposedly having no recollection of the shooting, because his legal team convinced him that his best chance to avoid the death penalty was to confess and to have them plead diminished capacity.

  109. @That Would Be Telling
    Repeating a couple of previous comments in short, with additions, I believe all we know of the US plan is the CDC's recommendation, thanks to the mayor of Chicago, we have a bit of evidence there's specific requirements as a condition of getting Operation Warp Speed (OWS) vaccines. And the U.K. plan is now an operation, our plans which include federalism are still plans prior to the FDA approving one or more Emergency Use Authorizations.

    Logistics also comes into play: it's been decided that one site will get only one type of vaccine. To vaccinate a long term care facility (LTCF), once you have a surplus of vaccine vs. vaccinating capability, like people to give the shots, all time the latter spends traveling is wasted. So it makes sense to hit a LTCF as few times as possible, ideally once in the period of shift changes, and vaccinate the residents at the same time.

    Based on recent reports, the US only reserved 100 million doses for 50 million people from Pfizer, we won't get more until the middle of next year. But while we paid nothing up front to Pfizer/BioNTech, we paid a lot to Moderna, so perhaps we're getting most or all of Moderna's output. Pfizer also recently announced that due to supply chain problems, they're going to miss their initial promises by one half.

    So this could drag out until for example the Janssen long term, high risk of one dose, high reward they plan to vaccinate one billion people by the end of 2021, human adenovirus vector vaccine becomes available here. Per the HHS Fact Sheet: Explaining Operation Warp Speed, they were the first to take OWS money, and a lot, $456 million on March 30th, then ~one billion for manufacturing, that'll get us 100 million doses for 100 million people.

    Novavax, spike protein plus adjuvant!!! is getting similar amounts of money for 100 million doses, per ClinicalTrials.gov, 50 million people , and there's ~ two billion total going to a "Sanofi and GlaxoSmithKline's (GSK) investigational adjuvanted vaccine," per ClinicalTrials.gov they're still working on formulations and dosing, two different adjuvants, one and two doses, again, 100 million doses if it works out. A great deal also to the AZ/Oxford clown show, which can restart/adjust their Phase III trial here in the US with the new dosing regime and maybe it'll past muster, again, 100 million doses, 50 million people.

    Replies: @anon, @anon

    Repeating a couple of previous comments in short, with additions

    Bzzzt – Beware . “That Would Be Telling” is a pro vaccine AI Bot .

    • Replies: @Steve Sailer
    @anon

    Pretty good AI!

    Replies: @That Would Be Telling

  110. @anon
    @That Would Be Telling


    Repeating a couple of previous comments in short, with additions
     
    Bzzzt - Beware . "That Would Be Telling" is a pro vaccine AI Bot .

    Replies: @Steve Sailer

    Pretty good AI!

    • Replies: @That Would Be Telling
    @Steve Sailer

    iSteve, for one, knows he should welcome humanity's new AI overlords.

  111. @Steve Sailer
    @Polynikes

    Like all the commenters who are terrified of vaccines?

    Replies: @anon

    Like all the commenters who are terrified of vaccines?

    It’s ok Steve, you can stay in the closet with John Travolta.
    Best you stay there till until it’s safe.

  112. @ScarletNumber
    @Art Deco


    Unless your grandmother is a centenarian, no she hasn’t.
     
    Grandma has been a leech since her youngest child could take care of themselves, so I stand by my 40 years.

    Replies: @Art Deco, @Julian of Norwich

    Or, since her children reached the age of responsibility, grandma has invested much of her time, effort and income providing continuing support for her adult children, thereby improving their quality of life and the survivability of their offspring, the which includes you?

  113. @Steve Sailer
    @anon

    Pretty good AI!

    Replies: @That Would Be Telling

    iSteve, for one, knows he should welcome humanity’s new AI overlords.

  114. @James B. Shearer
    @George Taylor

    "With the ultra cold storage requirement, I’m curious about plans on what to do with the vaccine for the essential workers and nursing home residents who don’t want to take it. .."

    It is my understanding that they are having people sign up in advance so there won't be a lot of leftover doses.

    Replies: @That Would Be Telling

    WRT to the Pfizer/BioNTech ultra cold storage requirements:

    It is my understanding that they are having people sign up in advance so there won’t be a lot of leftover doses.

    This vaccine is good for 5 days after being thawed out, so there’s all sorts of ways to deal with vials you haven’t used up. For example, if it starts to become a problem, maintain a list of people who sign up for “as available” dosing, although that does require a firm schedule of a second dose for them in ~21 days.

    Another thing that’ll help: Pfizer is only going to be able to meet half its earliest promised schedule, it’s got supply chain issues (perhaps they should have taken Operation Warp Speed (OWS) money upfront, instead of just getting a contingent purchase agreement? Note that plenty of OWS speed money is going to the supply chain, see HHS here for the view at 20,000 feet or so, and there should be coordination in the whole program.)

  115. @Reg Cæsar
    @Jack D


    That was Roosevelt’s brilliance – he scrambled a contribution based pension scheme with a welfare scheme so that no one can tell where one ends and one begins.
     
    Note that it's Social Security, not Personal Security. It was really meant to prevent spectres like the WWI veterans' marches. And, more so even than that, elect and re-elect Democrats until the end of time.

    Howard Ruff nailed the system: pay taxes all your working life, then go on welfare when you retire. It's essentially the same as unemployment insurance and AFDC, with a different means test.

    Replies: @Art Deco, @Clyde

    It’s essentially the same as unemployment insurance and AFDC, with a different means test.

    You’re insane. AFDC (which does not exist anymore) was not financed out of dedicated levies. It had no time limits attached to it, and it had a completely different sort of clientele than Social Security or unemployment compensation. AFDC was means tested. The others have no means test; the benefit stream is, however, earnings related. Both Social Security and unemployment compensation have buy-in requirements, the latter is strictly term-limited, and receiving both require that certain events beyond your control take place, events that are either readily manifest or require a hearing examiner to certify them.

    • Replies: @Reg Cæsar
    @Art Deco

    In what way was Ruff wrong?

    Replies: @Art Deco

  116. @D. K.
    @Art Deco

    Sirhan Sirhan did not fire the gun shot that killed Robert Kennedy. That shot was fired from one to three inches behind Kennedy's right ear, as testified to by Dr. Thomas Noguchi, who did the autopsy. Sirhan was standing several feet in front of Kennedy, and was tackled backward, onto a table top, after his second shot, firing his other shots wildly into the pantry. Audio evidence suggests thirteen shots were fired, that night, and there is physical evidence of several more shots than the eight from Sirhan's own handgun. Eyewitnesses saw more than one gun drawn, with the likely killer, inadvertent or otherwise, being a security guard.

    Replies: @Steve Sailer, @Art Deco, @Art Deco

    Sirhan Sirhan did not fire the gun shot that killed Robert Kennedy.

    I’ll call this the Mumia defense. Please yourself.

    • Replies: @D. K.
    @Art Deco

    You may call it what you wish, Artie, but you may not wish away Dr. Noguchi's finding of an up-close shot to the head, from just behind the right ear of the decedent. I described the scene. I subsequently linked to an article that was based upon the fact that the senator's own son and namesake does not believe that his father was killed by Sirhan. One of the other shooting victims from that night does not believe that Sirhan killed the senator, as discussed in the aforementioned link. There was another eyewitness who was adamant that he not only saw Cesar's gun drawn, just behind the senator, but also saw it fired.

    Kennedy was wounded three times, with a fourth bullet penetrating his suit jacket. There were powder burns on his clothes, from the nearness of the gun shots. Again, after Sirhan's second shot, multiple Kennedy supporters, celebrities in their own right, pinned him back onto a table top, and his six subsequent shots were fired wildly into the room, including penetrating the ceiling and a door jam, at the back of the pantry, where Kennedy and the crowd had entered the room. There is no conceivable way that Sirhan, standing several feet in front of Kennedy, hit him with four bullets, from Kennedy's right-rear, at nearly point-blank range, at an upward trajectory, as the senator was falling backwards, in the grasp of Cesar, while Sirhan was pinned with his back atop a pantry table, several feet in front of Kennedy, after Sirhan got just his first two shots off at his target.

    Replies: @D. K.

  117. @Buffalo Joe
    @Art Deco

    Art, nice reply and I hardly think ScarletNumber would call my 103 year old Mother a leech to her face. At least not with me present. Mom wishes NYS had "Death With Dignity" but abortion is cool, pop the champagne cork cool in NYS, but a reasoned request from a senior isn't. Stay safe.

    Replies: @ScarletNumber, @Art Deco, @Johann Ricke

    Mom wishes NYS had “Death With Dignity” but abortion is cool, pop the champagne cork cool in NYS, but a reasoned request from a senior isn’t.

    The way it works in countries that have implemented euthanasia is that the people being killed have very little input, and are subjected to intense pressure from people who should be defending their interests rather than trying to kill their loved ones for their own personal benefit. The pressure to agree to be killed isn’t just from relatives and friends – it’s also from people in the medical profession.

  118. @Art Deco
    @D. K.

    Sirhan Sirhan did not fire the gun shot that killed Robert Kennedy.

    I'll call this the Mumia defense. Please yourself.

    Replies: @D. K.

    You may call it what you wish, Artie, but you may not wish away Dr. Noguchi’s finding of an up-close shot to the head, from just behind the right ear of the decedent. I described the scene. I subsequently linked to an article that was based upon the fact that the senator’s own son and namesake does not believe that his father was killed by Sirhan. One of the other shooting victims from that night does not believe that Sirhan killed the senator, as discussed in the aforementioned link. There was another eyewitness who was adamant that he not only saw Cesar’s gun drawn, just behind the senator, but also saw it fired.

    Kennedy was wounded three times, with a fourth bullet penetrating his suit jacket. There were powder burns on his clothes, from the nearness of the gun shots. Again, after Sirhan’s second shot, multiple Kennedy supporters, celebrities in their own right, pinned him back onto a table top, and his six subsequent shots were fired wildly into the room, including penetrating the ceiling and a door jam, at the back of the pantry, where Kennedy and the crowd had entered the room. There is no conceivable way that Sirhan, standing several feet in front of Kennedy, hit him with four bullets, from Kennedy’s right-rear, at nearly point-blank range, at an upward trajectory, as the senator was falling backwards, in the grasp of Cesar, while Sirhan was pinned with his back atop a pantry table, several feet in front of Kennedy, after Sirhan got just his first two shots off at his target.

    • Replies: @D. K.
    @D. K.

    https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=KSxVHk5IqX4

  119. @D. K.
    @Art Deco

    You may call it what you wish, Artie, but you may not wish away Dr. Noguchi's finding of an up-close shot to the head, from just behind the right ear of the decedent. I described the scene. I subsequently linked to an article that was based upon the fact that the senator's own son and namesake does not believe that his father was killed by Sirhan. One of the other shooting victims from that night does not believe that Sirhan killed the senator, as discussed in the aforementioned link. There was another eyewitness who was adamant that he not only saw Cesar's gun drawn, just behind the senator, but also saw it fired.

    Kennedy was wounded three times, with a fourth bullet penetrating his suit jacket. There were powder burns on his clothes, from the nearness of the gun shots. Again, after Sirhan's second shot, multiple Kennedy supporters, celebrities in their own right, pinned him back onto a table top, and his six subsequent shots were fired wildly into the room, including penetrating the ceiling and a door jam, at the back of the pantry, where Kennedy and the crowd had entered the room. There is no conceivable way that Sirhan, standing several feet in front of Kennedy, hit him with four bullets, from Kennedy's right-rear, at nearly point-blank range, at an upward trajectory, as the senator was falling backwards, in the grasp of Cesar, while Sirhan was pinned with his back atop a pantry table, several feet in front of Kennedy, after Sirhan got just his first two shots off at his target.

    Replies: @D. K.

  120. @AnotherDad
    @Andrew M


    F. Maximize happiness
     
    Agree.

    I think that means whatever set of policies gets rid of the lockdown nonsense ASAP. That may indeed mean protecting old folks and when done people will think "ok, no biggie now" but my guess is the hysteria has been too much for that.

    A category i would suggest under "happiness" is make the vaccine available immediately to any young couple who are planning on having a baby in 2021--concerned about doing it with the virus, but promise to do so if they are vaccinated.

    We are just getting to the births conceived under the Xi regime. Do not know how it's going. But wouldn't surprise me if the Covid hysterics have killed off more babies than all the Covid deaths or Covid deaths prevented.

    I have pretty close to zero doubt the hysterics' lockdowns and nonsense have killed off more years of life than they have saved or years of life lost or would have been lost doing nothing.

    This has been a classic sacrificing the future for the past debacle. But we're now a society so far removed--"nation of immigrants", open borders, feminism, lean-in, homo-"marriage", "transgender"--from a healthy love of our own children, our posterity that most people discussing this don't even think forgone children.

    Replies: @Thoughts, @Clyde

    You live/retired? by the beach. Just the salt air will kill off Covid virus. The breezes disperse it, sunlight kills it. Lots of that good air gets into people’s houses. But having 30 BBQ guests crowding into your backyard. How will any virus transmit in such ideal open air conditions?

    Contrast this with Southern California banning restaurants from hosting outdoors dining so they can survive. This is not science, this is cruel idiocy from government workers elected/non-elected getting guaranteed pay checks for the abuse they dole out to the private sector citizenry.

    In my book the cruelest are usually the most stupid. They go together. And having a very fine university degree, you can still be very stupid because you were nothing but a trained seal in college, balancing a ball on your nose.

  121. @Reg Cæsar
    @Jack D


    That was Roosevelt’s brilliance – he scrambled a contribution based pension scheme with a welfare scheme so that no one can tell where one ends and one begins.
     
    Note that it's Social Security, not Personal Security. It was really meant to prevent spectres like the WWI veterans' marches. And, more so even than that, elect and re-elect Democrats until the end of time.

    Howard Ruff nailed the system: pay taxes all your working life, then go on welfare when you retire. It's essentially the same as unemployment insurance and AFDC, with a different means test.

    Replies: @Art Deco, @Clyde

    Howard Ruff? lols I read a few of his books back then. Mormon lived to 85, Check out his wiki. Back then Mormons were genuine conservatives, much than Mitt Romney and Mike Lee who is always agitating for more H1B workers from India
    I would love to see who Lee’s major donors are. Must be all Indian body (supplying) firms.

  122. iSteve, you omitted an important possible goal.

    You included – minimize loss of quality-adjusted life years.

    Another alternative is – minimize loss of life years.

    This isn’t a minor quibble. Maybe there are good arguments for QALY. However, they require controversial assumptions about what counts as a quality life – that would offend some on both right and left. Minimizing loss of life years, regardless of “quality,” is more publicly justifiable.

    Normally, life years I think is more justifiable than lives. Given CV-19’s strong relationship with age, oldsters would still get reasonable priority using that criterion.

  123. @Art Deco
    @Reg Cæsar

    It’s essentially the same as unemployment insurance and AFDC, with a different means test.

    You're insane. AFDC (which does not exist anymore) was not financed out of dedicated levies. It had no time limits attached to it, and it had a completely different sort of clientele than Social Security or unemployment compensation. AFDC was means tested. The others have no means test; the benefit stream is, however, earnings related. Both Social Security and unemployment compensation have buy-in requirements, the latter is strictly term-limited, and receiving both require that certain events beyond your control take place, events that are either readily manifest or require a hearing examiner to certify them.

    Replies: @Reg Cæsar

    In what way was Ruff wrong?

    • Replies: @Art Deco
    @Reg Cæsar

    Your question has been answered already.

  124. @Mike Tre
    @Steve Sailer

    No let's prioritize the elderly prisoners, Steve. They can shut the lights off.


    Thinking about the elderly again makes it seem you are mostly just thinking about yourself and your elderly generation. The natural fact is, you folks are on your way out regardless. How about putting some thought into the ones who are and will suffer the greatest from this psychological manipulation known as "staying safe;" magical masks, social distancing, lock downs, the encouraging of reporting heretics and non-believers to the authorities, etc, etc, etc.

    And just to set the record straight, unwillingness to submit to this vaccination push in not "anti-vaxer" or however you spell it. You sound like the progressives who must label their opponents to gain some rhetorical advantage.

    Further, in regards to this virus overreaction, you are on the side of the cowards, Steve. It's unfortunate based on how you've stood up to PC nonsense for so long.

    Replies: @ScarletNumber

    Further, in regards to this virus overreaction, you are on the side of the cowards, Steve. It’s unfortunate based on how you’ve stood up to PC nonsense for so long.

    I’m also disappointed in Steve, but I can’t say I’m surprised, since he lives as life as a hermit anyway.

    This situation has been great at culling the population of some unneeded elements, despite the protests of some on here. Much like people hating Congress but loving their Congressman, people have a tough time sacrificing someone they love for the common good. My mother has lived her three-score-and-10, so if she were to perish, it would be no great loss. Judge Judy, The People’s Court, and Lifetime would simply lose a viewer.

    • Replies: @Steve Sailer
    @ScarletNumber

    Grandchildren don't tend to be as callous as children are about grandparents checking out soon after their three score and ten.

    Replies: @D. K., @ScarletNumber

  125. @Polynikes
    @Jack D

    You haven’t been to a store since march? Jesus... this site is populated with more ninnies than Twitter.

    Replies: @Steve Sailer, @ScarletNumber

    Don’t blame us. With the exception of grocery stores and drug stores, other stores may still not be open since they are non-essential. I don’t think my local Barnes & Noble has reopened, and my local library placed cumbersome restrictions on its use.

  126. @Reg Cæsar
    @Art Deco

    In what way was Ruff wrong?

    Replies: @Art Deco

    Your question has been answered already.

  127. @D. K.
    @Art Deco

    Sirhan Sirhan did not fire the gun shot that killed Robert Kennedy. That shot was fired from one to three inches behind Kennedy's right ear, as testified to by Dr. Thomas Noguchi, who did the autopsy. Sirhan was standing several feet in front of Kennedy, and was tackled backward, onto a table top, after his second shot, firing his other shots wildly into the pantry. Audio evidence suggests thirteen shots were fired, that night, and there is physical evidence of several more shots than the eight from Sirhan's own handgun. Eyewitnesses saw more than one gun drawn, with the likely killer, inadvertent or otherwise, being a security guard.

    Replies: @Steve Sailer, @Art Deco, @Art Deco

    Audio evidence suggests thirteen shots were fired

    A disputed claim.

    You have a man standing smack in front of Kennedy firing bullets, but the actual killer is someone no one ever sees. Oh, and the forensic examiners got it wrong. They do every time.

    As for RFK Jr., the last time I can recall some public utterance of his, he was promoting the notion in print that Kenneth Littleton killed Martha Moxley. At least his maternal-side cousins have had the decency not to slime random 3d parties in a futile effort to get their brothers off the hook. For some reason, I don’t put much weight on what comes out of Bobby Jr.’s drug addled pen.

    • Replies: @D. K.
    @Art Deco

    "A disputed claim."

    Yes, I said that the "[a]udio evidence suggests thirteen shots were fired," not that they had been proven "beyond a reasonable doubt and to a moral certainty," in a court of law. When you can disprove the claim, Professor, rather than merely deny it out of hand, feel free to get back to us. I also said that the physical evidence from the pantry proves that more than eight shots-- i.e., those from Sirhan's own handgun-- had been fired. When you can disprove that statement, Professor, and not merely deny or, as above, ignore it, do get back to me.

    "You have a man standing smack in front of Kennedy firing bullets, but the actual killer is someone no one ever sees. Oh, and the forensic examiners got it wrong. They do every time."

    If by "smack" you mean "five or six feet," then, yes, Sirhan was "smack" in front of Kennedy, for Sirhan's first two shots-- after which, as I have noted several times, above, Sirhan was on his back, atop a pantry table, pinned down by multiple celebrities, who were acting as Kennedy's bodyguards, that night. What Sirhan never was, however, was at point-blank range behind Kennedy's right-rear, which is precisely where the four shots that hit Kennedy and his clothing came from, all fired at an upward trajectory, as he and Cesar, the security guard, fell backward, onto the pantry floor. If you are meaning to claim that Cesar was never seen that night, as he guided Kennedy through the pantry by his right arm, then you are a bald-faced liar. He not only was seen, he was seen with his gun drawn-- and one eyewitness was adamant that he saw Cesar fire his gun.

    The primary "forensic examiner" was the Chief Medical Examiner and Coroner of Los Angeles County, Dr. Thomas Noguchi, whose testimony as to the gun shots I already have described, and which you have failed to dispute, let alone to disprove. The autopsy of Robert Kennedy was witnessed by several expert medical examiners, both civilian and military, as explained in the video to which I linked, as a reply to my own previous comment to which you just replied. (I am sanguine, however, that you will dismiss Dr. Wecht's testimony out of hand, since he was a "conspiracy theorist" about both Kennedy assassinations, no doubt rendering his vast expertise, professional experience, and involvement in those two notorious cases moot in your own [inexpert] eyes.)

    "As for RFK Jr., the last time I can recall some public utterance of his, he was promoting the notion in print that Kenneth Littleton killed Martha Moxley. At least his maternal-side cousins have had the decency not to slime random 3d parties in a futile effort to get their brothers off the hook. For some reason, I don’t put much weight on what comes out of Bobby Jr.’s drug addled pen."

    Yes, what possible reason could RFK, Jr., have for wanting the real killer of his own father to be identified, all of these years later?

  128. @Art Deco
    @D. K.

    Audio evidence suggests thirteen shots were fired

    A disputed claim.


    You have a man standing smack in front of Kennedy firing bullets, but the actual killer is someone no one ever sees. Oh, and the forensic examiners got it wrong. They do every time.


    As for RFK Jr., the last time I can recall some public utterance of his, he was promoting the notion in print that Kenneth Littleton killed Martha Moxley. At least his maternal-side cousins have had the decency not to slime random 3d parties in a futile effort to get their brothers off the hook. For some reason, I don't put much weight on what comes out of Bobby Jr.'s drug addled pen.

    Replies: @D. K.

    “A disputed claim.”

    Yes, I said that the “[a]udio evidence suggests thirteen shots were fired,” not that they had been proven “beyond a reasonable doubt and to a moral certainty,” in a court of law. When you can disprove the claim, Professor, rather than merely deny it out of hand, feel free to get back to us. I also said that the physical evidence from the pantry proves that more than eight shots– i.e., those from Sirhan’s own handgun– had been fired. When you can disprove that statement, Professor, and not merely deny or, as above, ignore it, do get back to me.

    “You have a man standing smack in front of Kennedy firing bullets, but the actual killer is someone no one ever sees. Oh, and the forensic examiners got it wrong. They do every time.”

    If by “smack” you mean “five or six feet,” then, yes, Sirhan was “smack” in front of Kennedy, for Sirhan’s first two shots– after which, as I have noted several times, above, Sirhan was on his back, atop a pantry table, pinned down by multiple celebrities, who were acting as Kennedy’s bodyguards, that night. What Sirhan never was, however, was at point-blank range behind Kennedy’s right-rear, which is precisely where the four shots that hit Kennedy and his clothing came from, all fired at an upward trajectory, as he and Cesar, the security guard, fell backward, onto the pantry floor. If you are meaning to claim that Cesar was never seen that night, as he guided Kennedy through the pantry by his right arm, then you are a bald-faced liar. He not only was seen, he was seen with his gun drawn– and one eyewitness was adamant that he saw Cesar fire his gun.

    The primary “forensic examiner” was the Chief Medical Examiner and Coroner of Los Angeles County, Dr. Thomas Noguchi, whose testimony as to the gun shots I already have described, and which you have failed to dispute, let alone to disprove. The autopsy of Robert Kennedy was witnessed by several expert medical examiners, both civilian and military, as explained in the video to which I linked, as a reply to my own previous comment to which you just replied. (I am sanguine, however, that you will dismiss Dr. Wecht’s testimony out of hand, since he was a “conspiracy theorist” about both Kennedy assassinations, no doubt rendering his vast expertise, professional experience, and involvement in those two notorious cases moot in your own [inexpert] eyes.)

    “As for RFK Jr., the last time I can recall some public utterance of his, he was promoting the notion in print that Kenneth Littleton killed Martha Moxley. At least his maternal-side cousins have had the decency not to slime random 3d parties in a futile effort to get their brothers off the hook. For some reason, I don’t put much weight on what comes out of Bobby Jr.’s drug addled pen.”

    Yes, what possible reason could RFK, Jr., have for wanting the real killer of his own father to be identified, all of these years later?

  129. @ScarletNumber
    @Mike Tre


    Further, in regards to this virus overreaction, you are on the side of the cowards, Steve. It’s unfortunate based on how you’ve stood up to PC nonsense for so long.
     
    I'm also disappointed in Steve, but I can't say I'm surprised, since he lives as life as a hermit anyway.

    This situation has been great at culling the population of some unneeded elements, despite the protests of some on here. Much like people hating Congress but loving their Congressman, people have a tough time sacrificing someone they love for the common good. My mother has lived her three-score-and-10, so if she were to perish, it would be no great loss. Judge Judy, The People's Court, and Lifetime would simply lose a viewer.

    Replies: @Steve Sailer

    Grandchildren don’t tend to be as callous as children are about grandparents checking out soon after their three score and ten.

    • Replies: @D. K.
    @Steve Sailer

    My paternal grandmother died thirty-three years before I even was born. My maternal grandmother died twenty-three years before I was born. My maternal grandfather died a few years before I was born. My paternal grandfather was 70, when I was born, and died shortly after I started high school. His second wife, my step-grandmother, died shortly before I graduated from high school. My father was not the least bit callous about his dad and step-mother, when I was a boy, but neither was he either responsible for them financially or expecting any inheritance from them, when they died in old age.

    , @ScarletNumber
    @Steve Sailer

    When my grandparents died, my only regret was that they didn't die about five years sooner.

  130. @Steve Sailer
    @ScarletNumber

    Grandchildren don't tend to be as callous as children are about grandparents checking out soon after their three score and ten.

    Replies: @D. K., @ScarletNumber

    My paternal grandmother died thirty-three years before I even was born. My maternal grandmother died twenty-three years before I was born. My maternal grandfather died a few years before I was born. My paternal grandfather was 70, when I was born, and died shortly after I started high school. His second wife, my step-grandmother, died shortly before I graduated from high school. My father was not the least bit callous about his dad and step-mother, when I was a boy, but neither was he either responsible for them financially or expecting any inheritance from them, when they died in old age.

  131. @Steve Sailer
    @ScarletNumber

    Grandchildren don't tend to be as callous as children are about grandparents checking out soon after their three score and ten.

    Replies: @D. K., @ScarletNumber

    When my grandparents died, my only regret was that they didn’t die about five years sooner.

  132. @That Would Be Telling
    @Jack D


    Wal-Mart’s ace in the hole is that their prices are often better than Amazon.
     
    Maybe.... For me, an infinitely better supply chain, I just don't have to worry about getting counterfeits like I do with Amazon, even "Sold and Shipped by Amazon" since they commingle their and 3rd party "Fulfilled by Amazon" inventory for greater logistical efficiency. For a very large part of the nation by area, don't know about population, Amazon is not a competitor for fresh food, or anything else ideally tied to a store. For example, before I bugged in due to Corona-chan, Walmart.com returns were near trivial by going to the customer service desk the next time I went grocery shopping.

    Replies: @Jack D, @ScarletNumber

    Walmart.com returns were near trivial by going to the customer service desk the next time I went grocery shopping

    Perhaps your Walmart is different, but I wouldn’t use my local Walmart’s customer service desk on a bet.

  133. @ScarletNumber
    @Buffalo Joe

    If I knew you in person, I wouldn't say this, but since this is the internet, I have no problem calling your mother a leech. Good for her for wanting to go Kevorkian. We need more like her.

    Replies: @Buffalo Joe, @Lurker

    Perhaps you could lead by example?

    “Be the change you want to see in the world.”

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